Overlapping community detection in weighted networks via a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Xiang, Xin; Tang, Buzhou; Chen, Qingcai; Fan, Shixi; Bu, Junzhao

2017-02-01

Complex networks as a powerful way to represent complex systems have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of complex network analysis is to detect communities embedded in networks. In the real world, weighted networks are very common and may contain overlapping communities where a node is allowed to belong to multiple communities. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach, called the Bayesian mixture network (BMN) model, to detect overlapping communities in weighted networks. The advantages of our method are (i) providing soft-partition solutions in weighted networks; (ii) providing soft memberships, which quantify 'how strongly' a node belongs to a community. Experiments on a large number of real and synthetic networks show that our model has the ability in detecting overlapping communities in weighted networks and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models at shedding light on community partition.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Procedure for Two-Mode Cluster Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSarbo, Wayne S.; Fong, Duncan K. H.; Liechty, John; Saxton, M. Kim

2004-01-01

This manuscript introduces a new Bayesian finite mixture methodology for the joint clustering of row and column stimuli/objects associated with two-mode asymmetric proximity, dominance, or profile data. That is, common clusters are derived which partition both the row and column stimuli/objects simultaneously into the same derived set of clusters.…

A Bayesian partition modelling approach to resolve spatial variability in climate records from borehole temperature inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Gallagher, Kerry; Pain, Christopher C.

2009-08-01

Collections of suitably chosen borehole profiles can be used to infer large-scale trends in ground-surface temperature (GST) histories for the past few hundred years. These reconstructions are based on a large database of carefully selected borehole temperature measurements from around the globe. Since non-climatic thermal influences are difficult to identify, representative temperature histories are derived by averaging individual reconstructions to minimize the influence of these perturbing factors. This may lead to three potentially important drawbacks: the net signal of non-climatic factors may not be zero, meaning that the average does not reflect the best estimate of past climate; the averaging over large areas restricts the useful amount of more local climate change information available; and the inversion methods used to reconstruct the past temperatures at each site must be mathematically identical and are therefore not necessarily best suited to all data sets. In this work, we avoid these issues by using a Bayesian partition model (BPM), which is computed using a trans-dimensional form of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. This then allows the number and spatial distribution of different GST histories to be inferred from a given set of borehole data by partitioning the geographical area into discrete partitions. Profiles that are heavily influenced by non-climatic factors will be partitioned separately. Conversely, profiles with climatic information, which is consistent with neighbouring profiles, will then be inferred to lie in the same partition. The geographical extent of these partitions then leads to information on the regional extent of the climatic signal. In this study, three case studies are described using synthetic and real data. The first demonstrates that the Bayesian partition model method is able to correctly partition a suite of synthetic profiles according to the inferred GST history. In the second, more realistic case, a series of temperature profiles are calculated using surface air temperatures of a global climate model simulation. In the final case, 23 real boreholes from the United Kingdom, previously used for climatic reconstructions, are examined and the results compared with a local instrumental temperature series and the previous estimate derived from the same borehole data. The results indicate that the majority (17) of the 23 boreholes are unsuitable for climatic reconstruction purposes, at least without including other thermal processes in the forward model.

Conditional adaptive Bayesian spectral analysis of nonstationary biomedical time series.

PubMed

Bruce, Scott A; Hall, Martica H; Buysse, Daniel J; Krafty, Robert T

2018-03-01

Many studies of biomedical time series signals aim to measure the association between frequency-domain properties of time series and clinical and behavioral covariates. However, the time-varying dynamics of these associations are largely ignored due to a lack of methods that can assess the changing nature of the relationship through time. This article introduces a method for the simultaneous and automatic analysis of the association between the time-varying power spectrum and covariates, which we refer to as conditional adaptive Bayesian spectrum analysis (CABS). The procedure adaptively partitions the grid of time and covariate values into an unknown number of approximately stationary blocks and nonparametrically estimates local spectra within blocks through penalized splines. CABS is formulated in a fully Bayesian framework, in which the number and locations of partition points are random, and fit using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Estimation and inference averaged over the distribution of partitions allows for the accurate analysis of spectra with both smooth and abrupt changes. The proposed methodology is used to analyze the association between the time-varying spectrum of heart rate variability and self-reported sleep quality in a study of older adults serving as the primary caregiver for their ill spouse. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Network structure exploration in networks with node attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Bu, Junzhao; Tang, Buzhou; Xiang, Xin

2016-05-01

Complex networks provide a powerful way to represent complex systems and have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of network analysis is to detect structures (also called structural regularities) embedded in networks by determining group number and group partition. Most of network structure exploration models only consider network links. However, in real world networks, nodes may have attributes that are useful for network structure exploration. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) model to explore structural regularities in networks with node attributes, called Bayesian nonparametric attribute (BNPA) model. This model does not only take full advantage of both links between nodes and node attributes for group partition via shared hidden variables, but also determine group number automatically via the Bayesian nonparametric theory. Experiments conducted on a number of real and synthetic networks show that our BNPA model is able to automatically explore structural regularities in networks with node attributes and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models.

An agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach to visualisation in Bayesian clustering problems

PubMed Central

Dawson, Kevin J.; Belkhir, Khalid

2009-01-01

Clustering problems (including the clustering of individuals into outcrossing populations, hybrid generations, full-sib families and selfing lines) have recently received much attention in population genetics. In these clustering problems, the parameter of interest is a partition of the set of sampled individuals, - the sample partition. In a fully Bayesian approach to clustering problems of this type, our knowledge about the sample partition is represented by a probability distribution on the space of possible sample partitions. Since the number of possible partitions grows very rapidly with the sample size, we can not visualise this probability distribution in its entirety, unless the sample is very small. As a solution to this visualisation problem, we recommend using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm, which we call the exact linkage algorithm. This algorithm is a special case of the maximin clustering algorithm that we introduced previously. The exact linkage algorithm is now implemented in our software package Partition View. The exact linkage algorithm takes the posterior co-assignment probabilities as input, and yields as output a rooted binary tree, - or more generally, a forest of such trees. Each node of this forest defines a set of individuals, and the node height is the posterior co-assignment probability of this set. This provides a useful visual representation of the uncertainty associated with the assignment of individuals to categories. It is also a useful starting point for a more detailed exploration of the posterior distribution in terms of the co-assignment probabilities. PMID:19337306

Who Let the CAT Out of the Bag? Accurately Dealing with Substitutional Heterogeneity in Phylogenomic Analyses.

PubMed

Whelan, Nathan V; Halanych, Kenneth M

2017-03-01

As phylogenetic datasets have increased in size, site-heterogeneous substitution models such as CAT-F81 and CAT-GTR have been advocated in favor of other models because they purportedly suppress long-branch attraction (LBA). These models are two of the most commonly used models in phylogenomics, and they have been applied to a variety of taxa, ranging from Drosophila to land plants. However, many arguments in favor of CAT models have been based on tenuous assumptions about the true phylogeny, rather than rigorous testing with known trees via simulation. Moreover, CAT models have not been compared to other approaches for handling substitutional heterogeneity such as data partitioning with site-homogeneous substitution models. We simulated amino acid sequence datasets with substitutional heterogeneity on a variety of tree shapes including those susceptible to LBA. Data were analyzed with both CAT models and partitioning to explore model performance; in total over 670,000 CPU hours were used, of which over 97% was spent running analyses with CAT models. In many cases, all models recovered branching patterns that were identical to the known tree. However, CAT-F81 consistently performed worse than other models in inferring the correct branching patterns, and both CAT models often overestimated substitutional heterogeneity. Additionally, reanalysis of two empirical metazoan datasets supports the notion that CAT-F81 tends to recover less accurate trees than data partitioning and CAT-GTR. Given these results, we conclude that partitioning and CAT-GTR perform similarly in recovering accurate branching patterns. However, computation time can be orders of magnitude less for data partitioning, with commonly used implementations of CAT-GTR often failing to reach completion in a reasonable time frame (i.e., for Bayesian analyses to converge). Practices such as removing constant sites and parsimony uninformative characters, or using CAT-F81 when CAT-GTR is deemed too computationally expensive, cannot be logically justified. Given clear problems with CAT-F81, phylogenies previously inferred with this model should be reassessed. [Data partitioning; phylogenomics, simulation, site-heterogeneity, substitution models.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Nonparametric Bayesian Context Learning for Buried Threat Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

scans of field-collected GPR data collected on dirt (top) and gravel (bottom) lanes at an Eastern US test site. . . . . . . . . . 47 2.11 Plot of ...partition the data into M components, they differ in the information used to partition the data. First, approaches that as- sume independence of observations...and the advantages and disadvantages of using each are discussed. Furthermore, the merits of incorporating spatial information are also highlighted

Assessing Genetic Structure in Common but Ecologically Distinct Carnivores: The Stone Marten and Red Fox.

PubMed

Basto, Mafalda P; Santos-Reis, Margarida; Simões, Luciana; Grilo, Clara; Cardoso, Luís; Cortes, Helder; Bruford, Michael W; Fernandes, Carlos

2016-01-01

The identification of populations and spatial genetic patterns is important for ecological and conservation research, and spatially explicit individual-based methods have been recognised as powerful tools in this context. Mammalian carnivores are intrinsically vulnerable to habitat fragmentation but not much is known about the genetic consequences of fragmentation in common species. Stone martens (Martes foina) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) share a widespread Palearctic distribution and are considered habitat generalists, but in the Iberian Peninsula stone martens tend to occur in higher quality habitats. We compared their genetic structure in Portugal to see if they are consistent with their differences in ecological plasticity, and also to illustrate an approach to explicitly delineate the spatial boundaries of consistently identified genetic units. We analysed microsatellite data using spatial Bayesian clustering methods (implemented in the software BAPS, GENELAND and TESS), a progressive partitioning approach and a multivariate technique (Spatial Principal Components Analysis-sPCA). Three consensus Bayesian clusters were identified for the stone marten. No consensus was achieved for the red fox, but one cluster was the most probable clustering solution. Progressive partitioning and sPCA suggested additional clusters in the stone marten but they were not consistent among methods and were geographically incoherent. The contrasting results between the two species are consistent with the literature reporting stricter ecological requirements of the stone marten in the Iberian Peninsula. The observed genetic structure in the stone marten may have been influenced by landscape features, particularly rivers, and fragmentation. We suggest that an approach based on a consensus clustering solution of multiple different algorithms may provide an objective and effective means to delineate potential boundaries of inferred subpopulations. sPCA and progressive partitioning offer further verification of possible population structure and may be useful for revealing cryptic spatial genetic patterns worth further investigation.

Assessing Genetic Structure in Common but Ecologically Distinct Carnivores: The Stone Marten and Red Fox

PubMed Central

Basto, Mafalda P.; Santos-Reis, Margarida; Simões, Luciana; Grilo, Clara; Cardoso, Luís; Cortes, Helder; Bruford, Michael W.; Fernandes, Carlos

2016-01-01

The identification of populations and spatial genetic patterns is important for ecological and conservation research, and spatially explicit individual-based methods have been recognised as powerful tools in this context. Mammalian carnivores are intrinsically vulnerable to habitat fragmentation but not much is known about the genetic consequences of fragmentation in common species. Stone martens (Martes foina) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) share a widespread Palearctic distribution and are considered habitat generalists, but in the Iberian Peninsula stone martens tend to occur in higher quality habitats. We compared their genetic structure in Portugal to see if they are consistent with their differences in ecological plasticity, and also to illustrate an approach to explicitly delineate the spatial boundaries of consistently identified genetic units. We analysed microsatellite data using spatial Bayesian clustering methods (implemented in the software BAPS, GENELAND and TESS), a progressive partitioning approach and a multivariate technique (Spatial Principal Components Analysis-sPCA). Three consensus Bayesian clusters were identified for the stone marten. No consensus was achieved for the red fox, but one cluster was the most probable clustering solution. Progressive partitioning and sPCA suggested additional clusters in the stone marten but they were not consistent among methods and were geographically incoherent. The contrasting results between the two species are consistent with the literature reporting stricter ecological requirements of the stone marten in the Iberian Peninsula. The observed genetic structure in the stone marten may have been influenced by landscape features, particularly rivers, and fragmentation. We suggest that an approach based on a consensus clustering solution of multiple different algorithms may provide an objective and effective means to delineate potential boundaries of inferred subpopulations. sPCA and progressive partitioning offer further verification of possible population structure and may be useful for revealing cryptic spatial genetic patterns worth further investigation. PMID:26727497

Population genetic structure of critically endangered salamander (Hynobius amjiensis) in China: recommendations for conservation.

PubMed

Yang, J; Chen, C S; Chen, S H; Ding, P; Fan, Z Y; Lu, Y W; Yu, L P; Lin, H D

2016-06-10

Amji's salamander (Hynobius amjiensis) is a critically endangered species (IUCN Red List), which is endemic to mainland China. In the present study, five haplotypes were genotyped for the mtDNA cyt b gene in 45 specimens from three populations. Relatively low levels of haplotype diversity (h = 0.524) and nucleotide diversity (π = 0.00532) were detected. Analyses of the phylogenic structure of H. amjiensis showed no evidence of major geographic partitions or substantial barriers to historical gene flow throughout the species' range. Two major phylogenetic haplotype groups were revealed, and were estimated to have diverged about 1.262 million years ago. Mismatch distribution analysis, neutrality tests, and Bayesian skyline plots revealed no evidence of dramatic changes in the effective population size. According to the SAMOVA and STRUCTURE analyses, H. amjiensis should be regarded as two different management units.

Manual hierarchical clustering of regional geochemical data using a Bayesian finite mixture model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.; Smith, David

2016-01-01

Interpretation of regional scale, multivariate geochemical data is aided by a statistical technique called “clustering.” We investigate a particular clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data collected in the State of Colorado, United States of America. The clustering procedure partitions the field samples for the entire survey area into two clusters. The field samples in each cluster are partitioned again to create two subclusters, and so on. This manual procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters, and the different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical and geological processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although there are many different clustering methods, we use Bayesian finite mixture modeling with two probability distributions, which yields two clusters. The model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability density function, which usually has multiple modes. Each mode has its own set of model parameters; each set is checked to ensure that it is consistent both with the data and with independent geologic knowledge. The set of model parameters that is most consistent with the independent geologic knowledge is selected for detailed interpretation and partitioning of the field samples.

Random Partition Distribution Indexed by Pairwise Information

PubMed Central

Dahl, David B.; Day, Ryan; Tsai, Jerry W.

2017-01-01

We propose a random partition distribution indexed by pairwise similarity information such that partitions compatible with the similarities are given more probability. The use of pairwise similarities, in the form of distances, is common in some clustering algorithms (e.g., hierarchical clustering), but we show how to use this type of information to define a prior partition distribution for flexible Bayesian modeling. A defining feature of the distribution is that it allocates probability among partitions within a given number of subsets, but it does not shift probability among sets of partitions with different numbers of subsets. Our distribution places more probability on partitions that group similar items yet keeps the total probability of partitions with a given number of subsets constant. The distribution of the number of subsets (and its moments) is available in closed-form and is not a function of the similarities. Our formulation has an explicit probability mass function (with a tractable normalizing constant) so the full suite of MCMC methods may be used for posterior inference. We compare our distribution with several existing partition distributions, showing that our formulation has attractive properties. We provide three demonstrations to highlight the features and relative performance of our distribution. PMID:29276318

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics.

PubMed

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Assessing Local Model Adequacy in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Using the Partitioned Deviance Information Criterion

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Waller, Lance A.

2010-01-01

Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data. PMID:21243121

The historical biogeography of the freshwater knifefishes using mitogenomic approaches: a mesozoic origin of the Asian notopterids (Actinopterygii: Osteoglossomorpha).

PubMed

Inoue, Jun G; Kumazawa, Yoshinori; Miya, Masaki; Nishida, Mutsumi

2009-06-01

The continental distributions of freshwater fishes in the family Notopteridae (Osteoglossomorpha) across Africa, India, and Southeast Asia constitute a long standing and enigmatic problem of freshwater biogeography. The migrational pathway of the Asian notopterids has been discussed in light of two competing schemes: the first posits recent transcontinental dispersal while the second relies on distributions being shaped by ancient vicariance associated with plate-tectonic events. In this study, we determined complete mitochondrial DNA sequences from 10 osteoglossomorph fishes to estimate phylogenetic relationships using partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods and divergence dates of the family Notopteridae with a partitioned Bayesian approach. We used six species representing the major lineages of the Notopteridae and seven species from the remaining osteoglossomorph families. Fourteen more-derived teleosts, nine basal actinopterygians, two coelacanths, and one shark were used as outgroups. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the African and Asian notopterids formed a sister group to each other and that these notopterids were a sister to a clade comprising two African families (Mormyridae and Gymnarchidae). Estimated divergence time between the African and Asian notopterids dated back to the early Cretaceous when India-Madagascar separated from the African part of Gondwanaland. Thus, estimated time of divergence based on the molecular evidence is at odds with the recent dispersal model. It can be reconciled with the geological and paleontological evidence to support the vicariance model in which the Asian notopterids diverged from the African notopterids in Gondwanaland and migrated into Eurasia on the Indian subcontinent from the Cretaceous to the Tertiary. However, we could not exclude an alternative explanation that the African and Asian notopterids diverged in Pangea before its complete separation into Laurasia and Gondwanaland, to which these two lineages were later confined, respectively.

Choosing and Using Introns in Molecular Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Creer, Simon

2007-01-01

Introns are now commonly used in molecular phylogenetics in an attempt to recover gene trees that are concordant with species trees, but there are a range of genomic, logistical and analytical considerations that are infrequently discussed in empirical studies that utilize intron data. This review outlines expedient approaches for locus selection, overcoming paralogy problems, recombination detection methods and the identification and incorporation of LVHs in molecular systematics. A range of parsimony and Bayesian analytical approaches are also described in order to highlight the methods that can currently be employed to align sequences and treat indels in subsequent analyses. By covering the main points associated with the generation and analysis of intron data, this review aims to provide a comprehensive introduction to using introns (or any non-coding nuclear data partition) in contemporary phylogenetics. PMID:19461984

Characterization of the uncertainty of divergence time estimation under relaxed molecular clock models using multiple loci.

PubMed

Zhu, Tianqi; Dos Reis, Mario; Yang, Ziheng

2015-03-01

Genetic sequence data provide information about the distances between species or branch lengths in a phylogeny, but not about the absolute divergence times or the evolutionary rates directly. Bayesian methods for dating species divergences estimate times and rates by assigning priors on them. In particular, the prior on times (node ages on the phylogeny) incorporates information in the fossil record to calibrate the molecular tree. Because times and rates are confounded, our posterior time estimates will not approach point values even if an infinite amount of sequence data are used in the analysis. In a previous study we developed a finite-sites theory to characterize the uncertainty in Bayesian divergence time estimation in analysis of large but finite sequence data sets under a strict molecular clock. As most modern clock dating analyses use more than one locus and are conducted under relaxed clock models, here we extend the theory to the case of relaxed clock analysis of data from multiple loci (site partitions). Uncertainty in posterior time estimates is partitioned into three sources: Sampling errors in the estimates of branch lengths in the tree for each locus due to limited sequence length, variation of substitution rates among lineages and among loci, and uncertainty in fossil calibrations. Using a simple but analogous estimation problem involving the multivariate normal distribution, we predict that as the number of loci ([Formula: see text]) goes to infinity, the variance in posterior time estimates decreases and approaches the infinite-data limit at the rate of 1/[Formula: see text], and the limit is independent of the number of sites in the sequence alignment. We then confirmed the predictions by using computer simulation on phylogenies of two or three species, and by analyzing a real genomic data set for six primate species. Our results suggest that with the fossil calibrations fixed, analyzing multiple loci or site partitions is the most effective way for improving the precision of posterior time estimation. However, even if a huge amount of sequence data is analyzed, considerable uncertainty will persist in time estimates. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Covariance Partition Priors: A Bayesian Approach to Simultaneous Covariance Estimation for Longitudinal Data.

PubMed

Gaskins, J T; Daniels, M J

2016-01-02

The estimation of the covariance matrix is a key concern in the analysis of longitudinal data. When data consists of multiple groups, it is often assumed the covariance matrices are either equal across groups or are completely distinct. We seek methodology to allow borrowing of strength across potentially similar groups to improve estimation. To that end, we introduce a covariance partition prior which proposes a partition of the groups at each measurement time. Groups in the same set of the partition share dependence parameters for the distribution of the current measurement given the preceding ones, and the sequence of partitions is modeled as a Markov chain to encourage similar structure at nearby measurement times. This approach additionally encourages a lower-dimensional structure of the covariance matrices by shrinking the parameters of the Cholesky decomposition toward zero. We demonstrate the performance of our model through two simulation studies and the analysis of data from a depression study. This article includes Supplementary Material available online.

Inferring Markov chains: Bayesian estimation, model comparison, entropy rate, and out-of-class modeling.

PubMed

Strelioff, Christopher C; Crutchfield, James P; Hübler, Alfred W

2007-07-01

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer kth order Markov chains, for arbitrary k , from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both parameter estimation and model-order selection. Extending existing results for multinomial models of discrete data, we connect inference to statistical mechanics through information-theoretic (type theory) techniques. We establish a direct relationship between Bayesian evidence and the partition function which allows for straightforward calculation of the expectation and variance of the conditional relative entropy and the source entropy rate. Finally, we introduce a method that uses finite data-size scaling with model-order comparison to infer the structure of out-of-class processes.

Morphological homoplasy, life history evolution, and historical biogeography of plethodontid salamanders inferred from complete mitochondrial genomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mueller, Rachel Lockridge; Macey, J. Robert; Jaekel, Martin

2004-08-01

The evolutionary history of the largest salamander family (Plethodontidae) is characterized by extreme morphological homoplasy. Analysis of the mechanisms generating such homoplasy requires an independent, molecular phylogeny. To this end, we sequenced 24 complete mitochondrial genomes (22 plethodontids and two outgroup taxa), added data for three species from GenBank, and performed partitioned and unpartitioned Bayesian, ML, and MP phylogenetic analyses. We explored four dataset partitioning strategies to account for evolutionary process heterogeneity among genes and codon positions, all of which yielded increased model likelihoods and decreased numbers of supported nodes in the topologies (PP > 0.95) relative to the unpartitionedmore » analysis. Our phylogenetic analyses yielded congruent trees that contrast with the traditional morphology-based taxonomy; the monophyly of three out of four major groups is rejected. Reanalysis of current hypotheses in light of these new evolutionary relationships suggests that (1) a larval life history stage re-evolved from a direct-developing ancestor multiple times, (2) there is no phylogenetic support for the ''Out of Appalachia'' hypothesis of plethodontid origins, and (3) novel scenarios must be reconstructed for the convergent evolution of projectile tongues, reduction in toe number, and specialization for defensive tail loss. Some of these novel scenarios imply morphological transformation series that proceed in the opposite direction than was previously thought. In addition, they suggest surprising evolutionary lability in traits previously interpreted to be conservative.« less

Bayesian relaxed clock estimation of divergence times in foraminifera.

PubMed

Groussin, Mathieu; Pawlowski, Jan; Yang, Ziheng

2011-10-01

Accurate and precise estimation of divergence times during the Neo-Proterozoic is necessary to understand the speciation dynamic of early Eukaryotes. However such deep divergences are difficult to date, as the molecular clock is seriously violated. Recent improvements in Bayesian molecular dating techniques allow the relaxation of the molecular clock hypothesis as well as incorporation of multiple and flexible fossil calibrations. Divergence times can then be estimated even when the evolutionary rate varies among lineages and even when the fossil calibrations involve substantial uncertainties. In this paper, we used a Bayesian method to estimate divergence times in Foraminifera, a group of unicellular eukaryotes, known for their excellent fossil record but also for the high evolutionary rates of their genomes. Based on multigene data we reconstructed the phylogeny of Foraminifera and dated their origin and the major radiation events. Our estimates suggest that Foraminifera emerged during the Cryogenian (650-920 Ma, Neo-Proterozoic), with a mean time around 770 Ma, about 220 Myr before the first appearance of reliable foraminiferal fossils in sediments (545 Ma). Most dates are in agreement with the fossil record, but in general our results suggest earlier origins of foraminiferal orders. We found that the posterior time estimates were robust to specifications of the prior. Our results highlight inter-species variations of evolutionary rates in Foraminifera. Their effect was partially overcome by using the partitioned Bayesian analysis to accommodate rate heterogeneity among data partitions and using the relaxed molecular clock to account for changing evolutionary rates. However, more coding genes appear necessary to obtain more precise estimates of divergence times and to resolve the conflicts between fossil and molecular date estimates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Isotope partitioning of soil respiration: A Bayesian solution to accommodate multiple sources of variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ogle, Kiona; Pendall, Elise

Isotopic methods offer great potential for partitioning trace gas fluxes such as soil respiration into their different source contributions. Traditional partitioning methods face challenges due to variability introduced by different measurement methods, fractionation effects, and end-member uncertainty. To address these challenges, we describe in this paper a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) approach for isotopic partitioning of soil respiration that directly accommodates such variability. We apply our HB method to data from an experiment conducted in a shortgrass steppe ecosystem, where decomposition was previously shown to be stimulated by elevated CO 2. Our approach simultaneously fits Keeling plot (KP) models to observationsmore » of soil or soil-respired δ 13C and [CO 2] obtained via chambers and gas wells, corrects the KP intercepts for apparent fractionation (Δ) due to isotope-specific diffusion rates and/or method artifacts, estimates method- and treatment-specific values for Δ, propagates end-member uncertainty, and calculates proportional contributions from two distinct respiration sources (“old” and “new” carbon). The chamber KP intercepts were estimated with greater confidence than the well intercepts and compared to the theoretical value of 4.4‰, our results suggest that Δ varies between 2 and 5.2‰ depending on method (chambers versus wells) and CO 2 treatment. Because elevated CO 2 plots were fumigated with 13C-depleted CO 2, the source contributions were tightly constrained, and new C accounted for 64% (range = 55–73%) of soil respiration. The contributions were less constrained for the ambient CO 2 treatments, but new C accounted for significantly less (47%, range = 15–82%) of soil respiration. Finally, our new HB partitioning approach contrasts our original analysis (higher contribution of old C under elevated CO 2) because it uses additional data sources, accounts for end-member bias, and estimates apparent fractionation effects.« less

Juvenile habitat partitioning and relative productivity in allochronically isolated sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka).

PubMed

Miller, Ek Fillatre; Bradbury, Ir; Heath, Dd

2011-12-01

Allochronic divergence, like spatial isolation, may contribute to population diversity and adaptation, however the challenges for tracking habitat utilization in shared environments are far greater. Adult Klukshu River (Yukon, Canada) sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, return as genetically distinct "early" and "late" runs. Early and late adult spawning populations (1999 and 2000) and their subsequent fry (sampled at 7 sites in 2000 and at 8 sites in 2001 throughout Klukshu Lake and River) were genotyped at eight microsatellite loci. Bayesian assignment was used to determine the spatial distribution of early versus late fry; although intermixed, the distribution of fry significantly differed in Klukshu Lake and in the Klukshu River in 2001, based on crosstab analyses. Late-run fry predominated in Klukshu Lake at all sites, while early-run fry were most common in the north and south of Klukshu Lake and in Klukshu River. Early-run spawners had significantly higher relative productivity (early life survival) than late-run fish (2.9 times more fry produced per early-run adult in 2000, and 9.2 times more in 2001). This study demonstrates spatial habitat partitioning and differences in the contribution of allochronically isolated populations to fry abundance, and highlights annual variability that likely contributes to recruitment variation.

Juvenile habitat partitioning and relative productivity in allochronically isolated sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

PubMed Central

Miller, EK Fillatre; Bradbury, IR; Heath, DD

2011-01-01

Allochronic divergence, like spatial isolation, may contribute to population diversity and adaptation, however the challenges for tracking habitat utilization in shared environments are far greater. Adult Klukshu River (Yukon, Canada) sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, return as genetically distinct “early” and “late” runs. Early and late adult spawning populations (1999 and 2000) and their subsequent fry (sampled at 7 sites in 2000 and at 8 sites in 2001 throughout Klukshu Lake and River) were genotyped at eight microsatellite loci. Bayesian assignment was used to determine the spatial distribution of early versus late fry; although intermixed, the distribution of fry significantly differed in Klukshu Lake and in the Klukshu River in 2001, based on crosstab analyses. Late-run fry predominated in Klukshu Lake at all sites, while early-run fry were most common in the north and south of Klukshu Lake and in Klukshu River. Early-run spawners had significantly higher relative productivity (early life survival) than late-run fish (2.9 times more fry produced per early-run adult in 2000, and 9.2 times more in 2001). This study demonstrates spatial habitat partitioning and differences in the contribution of allochronically isolated populations to fry abundance, and highlights annual variability that likely contributes to recruitment variation. PMID:22393527

Optimization of Modeled Land-Atmosphere Exchanges of Water and Energy in an Isotopically-Enabled Land Surface Model by Bayesian Parameter Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, T. E.; Noone, D. C.; Kleiber, W.

2014-12-01

The single largest uncertainty in climate model energy balance is the surface latent heating over tropical land. Furthermore, the partitioning of the total latent heat flux into contributions from surface evaporation and plant transpiration is of great importance, but notoriously poorly constrained. Resolving these issues will require better exploiting information which lies at the interface between observations and advanced modeling tools, both of which are imperfect. There are remarkably few observations which can constrain these fluxes, placing strict requirements on developing statistical methods to maximize the use of limited information to best improve models. Previous work has demonstrated the power of incorporating stable water isotopes into land surface models for further constraining ecosystem processes. We present results from a stable water isotopically-enabled land surface model (iCLM4), including model experiments partitioning the latent heat flux into contributions from plant transpiration and surface evaporation. It is shown that the partitioning results are sensitive to the parameterization of kinetic fractionation used. We discuss and demonstrate an approach to calibrating select model parameters to observational data in a Bayesian estimation framework, requiring Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution, which is shown to constrain uncertain parameters as well as inform relevant values for operational use. Finally, we discuss the application of the estimation scheme to iCLM4, including entropy as a measure of information content and specific challenges which arise in calibration models with a large number of parameters.

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

The impact of the rate prior on Bayesian estimation of divergence times with multiple Loci.

PubMed

Dos Reis, Mario; Zhu, Tianqi; Yang, Ziheng

2014-07-01

Bayesian methods provide a powerful way to estimate species divergence times by combining information from molecular sequences with information from the fossil record. With the explosive increase of genomic data, divergence time estimation increasingly uses data of multiple loci (genes or site partitions). Widely used computer programs to estimate divergence times use independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) priors on the substitution rates for different loci. The i.i.d. prior is problematic. As the number of loci (L) increases, the prior variance of the average rate across all loci goes to zero at the rate 1/L. As a consequence, the rate prior dominates posterior time estimates when many loci are analyzed, and if the rate prior is misspecified, the estimated divergence times will converge to wrong values with very narrow credibility intervals. Here we develop a new prior on the locus rates based on the Dirichlet distribution that corrects the problematic behavior of the i.i.d. prior. We use computer simulation and real data analysis to highlight the differences between the old and new priors. For a dataset for six primate species, we show that with the old i.i.d. prior, if the prior rate is too high (or too low), the estimated divergence times are too young (or too old), outside the bounds imposed by the fossil calibrations. In contrast, with the new Dirichlet prior, posterior time estimates are insensitive to the rate prior and are compatible with the fossil calibrations. We re-analyzed a phylogenomic data set of 36 mammal species and show that using many fossil calibrations can alleviate the adverse impact of a misspecified rate prior to some extent. We recommend the use of the new Dirichlet prior in Bayesian divergence time estimation. [Bayesian inference, divergence time, relaxed clock, rate prior, partition analysis.]. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Bayesian methods including nonrandomized study data increased the efficiency of postlaunch RCTs.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klugkist, Irene; Klungel, Olaf H; Nielen, Mirjam; de Boer, Anthonius; Hoes, Arno W; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2015-04-01

Findings from nonrandomized studies on safety or efficacy of treatment in patient subgroups may trigger postlaunch randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In the analysis of such RCTs, results from nonrandomized studies are typically ignored. This study explores the trade-off between bias and power of Bayesian RCT analysis incorporating information from nonrandomized studies. A simulation study was conducted to compare frequentist with Bayesian analyses using noninformative and informative priors in their ability to detect interaction effects. In simulated subgroups, the effect of a hypothetical treatment differed between subgroups (odds ratio 1.00 vs. 2.33). Simulations varied in sample size, proportions of the subgroups, and specification of the priors. As expected, the results for the informative Bayesian analyses were more biased than those from the noninformative Bayesian analysis or frequentist analysis. However, because of a reduction in posterior variance, informative Bayesian analyses were generally more powerful to detect an effect. In scenarios where the informative priors were in the opposite direction of the RCT data, type 1 error rates could be 100% and power 0%. Bayesian methods incorporating data from nonrandomized studies can meaningfully increase power of interaction tests in postlaunch RCTs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rigorous Approach in Investigation of Seismic Structure and Source Characteristicsin Northeast Asia: Hierarchical and Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustac, M.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.; Ford, S. R.; Sebastian, N.

2015-12-01

Conventional approaches to inverse problems suffer from non-linearity and non-uniqueness in estimations of seismic structures and source properties. Estimated results and associated uncertainties are often biased by applied regularizations and additional constraints, which are commonly introduced to solve such problems. Bayesian methods, however, provide statistically meaningful estimations of models and their uncertainties constrained by data information. In addition, hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques are inherently implemented in the Bayesian framework to account for involved error statistics and model parameterizations, and, in turn, allow more rigorous estimations of the same. Here, we apply Bayesian methods throughout the entire inference process to estimate seismic structures and source properties in Northeast Asia including east China, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese islands. Ambient noise analysis is first performed to obtain a base three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneity model using continuous broadband waveforms from more than 300 stations. As for the tomography of surface wave group and phase velocities in the 5-70 s band, we adopt a hierarchical and trans-D Bayesian inversion method using Voronoi partition. The 3-D heterogeneity model is further improved by joint inversions of teleseismic receiver functions and dispersion data using a newly developed high-efficiency Bayesian technique. The obtained model is subsequently used to prepare 3-D structural Green's functions for the source characterization. A hierarchical Bayesian method for point source inversion using regional complete waveform data is applied to selected events from the region. The seismic structure and source characteristics with rigorously estimated uncertainties from the novel Bayesian methods provide enhanced monitoring and discrimination of seismic events in northeast Asia.

A Multilocus Molecular Phylogeny of the Parrots (Psittaciformes): Support for a Gondwanan Origin during the Cretaceous

PubMed Central

Schirtzinger, Erin E.; Matsumoto, Tania; Eberhard, Jessica R.; Graves, Gary R.; Sanchez, Juan J.; Capelli, Sara; Müller, Heinrich; Scharpegge, Julia; Chambers, Geoffrey K.; Fleischer, Robert C.

2008-01-01

The question of when modern birds (Neornithes) first diversified has generated much debate among avian systematists. Fossil evidence generally supports a Tertiary diversification, whereas estimates based on molecular dating favor an earlier diversification in the Cretaceous period. In this study, we used an alternate approach, the inference of historical biogeographic patterns, to test the hypothesis that the initial radiation of the Order Psittaciformes (the parrots and cockatoos) originated on the Gondwana supercontinent during the Cretaceous. We utilized broad taxonomic sampling (representatives of 69 of the 82 extant genera and 8 outgroup taxa) and multilocus molecular character sampling (3,941 bp from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes cytochrome oxidase I and NADH dehydrogenase 2 and nuclear introns of rhodopsin intron 1, tropomyosin alpha-subunit intron 5, and transforming growth factor ß-2) to generate phylogenetic hypotheses for the Psittaciformes. Analyses of the combined character partitions using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian criteria produced well-resolved and topologically similar trees in which the New Zealand taxa Strigops and Nestor (Psittacidae) were sister to all other psittaciforms and the cockatoo clade (Cacatuidae) was sister to a clade containing all remaining parrots (Psittacidae). Within this large clade of Psittacidae, some traditionally recognized tribes and subfamilies were monophyletic (e.g., Arini, Psittacini, and Loriinae), whereas several others were polyphyletic (e.g., Cyclopsittacini, Platycercini, Psittaculini, and Psittacinae). Ancestral area reconstructions using our Bayesian phylogenetic hypothesis and current distributions of genera supported the hypothesis of an Australasian origin for the Psittaciformes. Separate analyses of the timing of parrot diversification constructed with both Bayesian relaxed-clock and penalized likelihood approaches showed better agreement between geologic and diversification events in the chronograms based on a Cretaceous dating of the basal split within parrots than the chronograms based on a Tertiary dating of this split, although these data are more equivocal. Taken together, our results support a Cretaceous origin of Psittaciformes in Gondwana after the separation of Africa and the India/Madagascar block with subsequent diversification through both vicariance and dispersal. These well-resolved molecular phylogenies will be of value for comparative studies of behavior, ecology, and life history in parrots. PMID:18653733

Origin, Migration Routes and Worldwide Population Genetic Structure of the Wheat Yellow Rust Pathogen Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici

PubMed Central

Ali, Sajid; Gladieux, Pierre; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Justesen, Annemarie F.; Hovmøller, Mogens S.; Enjalbert, Jérôme; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude

2014-01-01

Analyses of large-scale population structure of pathogens enable the identification of migration patterns, diversity reservoirs or longevity of populations, the understanding of current evolutionary trajectories and the anticipation of future ones. This is particularly important for long-distance migrating fungal pathogens such as Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici (PST), capable of rapid spread to new regions and crop varieties. Although a range of recent PST invasions at continental scales are well documented, the worldwide population structure and the center of origin of the pathogen were still unknown. In this study, we used multilocus microsatellite genotyping to infer worldwide population structure of PST and the origin of new invasions based on 409 isolates representative of distribution of the fungus on six continents. Bayesian and multivariate clustering methods partitioned the set of multilocus genotypes into six distinct genetic groups associated with their geographical origin. Analyses of linkage disequilibrium and genotypic diversity indicated a strong regional heterogeneity in levels of recombination, with clear signatures of recombination in the Himalayan (Nepal and Pakistan) and near-Himalayan regions (China) and a predominant clonal population structure in other regions. The higher genotypic diversity, recombinant population structure and high sexual reproduction ability in the Himalayan and neighboring regions suggests this area as the putative center of origin of PST. We used clustering methods and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to compare different competing scenarios describing ancestral relationship among ancestral populations and more recently founded populations. Our analyses confirmed the Middle East-East Africa as the most likely source of newly spreading, high-temperature-adapted strains; Europe as the source of South American, North American and Australian populations; and Mediterranean-Central Asian populations as the origin of South African populations. Although most geographic populations are not markedly affected by recent dispersal events, this study emphasizes the influence of human activities on recent long-distance spread of the pathogen. PMID:24465211

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Bayesian Treed Calibration: An Application to Carbon Capture With AX Sorbent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konomi, Bledar A.; Karagiannis, Georgios; Lai, Kevin

2017-01-02

In cases where field or experimental measurements are not available, computer models can model real physical or engineering systems to reproduce their outcomes. They are usually calibrated in light of experimental data to create a better representation of the real system. Statistical methods, based on Gaussian processes, for calibration and prediction have been especially important when the computer models are expensive and experimental data limited. In this paper, we develop the Bayesian treed calibration (BTC) as an extension of standard Gaussian process calibration methods to deal with non-stationarity computer models and/or their discrepancy from the field (or experimental) data. Ourmore » proposed method partitions both the calibration and observable input space, based on a binary tree partitioning, into sub-regions where existing model calibration methods can be applied to connect a computer model with the real system. The estimation of the parameters in the proposed model is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational techniques. Different strategies have been applied to improve mixing. We illustrate our method in two artificial examples and a real application that concerns the capture of carbon dioxide with AX amine based sorbents. The source code and the examples analyzed in this paper are available as part of the supplementary materials.« less

Obtaining parsimonious hydraulic conductivity fields using head and transport observations: A Bayesian geostatistical parameter estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fienen, M.; Hunt, R.; Krabbenhoft, D.; Clemo, T.

2009-08-01

Flow path delineation is a valuable tool for interpreting the subsurface hydrogeochemical environment. Different types of data, such as groundwater flow and transport, inform different aspects of hydrogeologic parameter values (hydraulic conductivity in this case) which, in turn, determine flow paths. This work combines flow and transport information to estimate a unified set of hydrogeologic parameters using the Bayesian geostatistical inverse approach. Parameter flexibility is allowed by using a highly parameterized approach with the level of complexity informed by the data. Despite the effort to adhere to the ideal of minimal a priori structure imposed on the problem, extreme contrasts in parameters can result in the need to censor correlation across hydrostratigraphic bounding surfaces. These partitions segregate parameters into facies associations. With an iterative approach in which partitions are based on inspection of initial estimates, flow path interpretation is progressively refined through the inclusion of more types of data. Head observations, stable oxygen isotopes (18O/16O ratios), and tritium are all used to progressively refine flow path delineation on an isthmus between two lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, northern Wisconsin, United States. Despite allowing significant parameter freedom by estimating many distributed parameter values, a smooth field is obtained.

Obtaining parsimonious hydraulic conductivity fields using head and transport observations: A Bayesian geostatistical parameter estimation approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, M.; Hunt, R.; Krabbenhoft, D.; Clemo, T.

2009-01-01

Flow path delineation is a valuable tool for interpreting the subsurface hydrogeochemical environment. Different types of data, such as groundwater flow and transport, inform different aspects of hydrogeologic parameter values (hydraulic conductivity in this case) which, in turn, determine flow paths. This work combines flow and transport information to estimate a unified set of hydrogeologic parameters using the Bayesian geostatistical inverse approach. Parameter flexibility is allowed by using a highly parameterized approach with the level of complexity informed by the data. Despite the effort to adhere to the ideal of minimal a priori structure imposed on the problem, extreme contrasts in parameters can result in the need to censor correlation across hydrostratigraphic bounding surfaces. These partitions segregate parameters into facies associations. With an iterative approach in which partitions are based on inspection of initial estimates, flow path interpretation is progressively refined through the inclusion of more types of data. Head observations, stable oxygen isotopes (18O/16O ratios), and tritium are all used to progressively refine flow path delineation on an isthmus between two lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, northern Wisconsin, United States. Despite allowing significant parameter freedom by estimating many distributed parameter values, a smooth field is obtained.

Gravity dual for a model of perception

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakayama, Yu, E-mail: nakayama@berkeley.edu

2011-01-15

One of the salient features of human perception is its invariance under dilatation in addition to the Euclidean group, but its non-invariance under special conformal transformation. We investigate a holographic approach to the information processing in image discrimination with this feature. We claim that a strongly coupled analogue of the statistical model proposed by Bialek and Zee can be holographically realized in scale invariant but non-conformal Euclidean geometries. We identify the Bayesian probability distribution of our generalized Bialek-Zee model with the GKPW partition function of the dual gravitational system. We provide a concrete example of the geometric configuration based onmore » a vector condensation model coupled with the Euclidean Einstein-Hilbert action. From the proposed geometry, we study sample correlation functions to compute the Bayesian probability distribution.« less

A Bayesian framework for infrasound location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modrak, Ryan T.; Arrowsmith, Stephen J.; Anderson, Dale N.

2010-04-01

We develop a framework for location of infrasound events using backazimuth and infrasonic arrival times from multiple arrays. Bayesian infrasonic source location (BISL) developed here estimates event location and associated credibility regions. BISL accounts for unknown source-to-array path or phase by formulating infrasonic group velocity as random. Differences between observed and predicted source-to-array traveltimes are partitioned into two additive Gaussian sources, measurement error and model error, the second of which accounts for the unknown influence of wind and temperature on path. By applying the technique to both synthetic tests and ground-truth events, we highlight the complementary nature of back azimuths and arrival times for estimating well-constrained event locations. BISL is an extension to methods developed earlier by Arrowsmith et al. that provided simple bounds on location using a grid-search technique.

Soft sensor modeling based on variable partition ensemble method for nonlinear batch processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li; Chen, Xiangguang; Yang, Kai; Jin, Huaiping

2017-01-01

Batch processes are always characterized by nonlinear and system uncertain properties, therefore, the conventional single model may be ill-suited. A local learning strategy soft sensor based on variable partition ensemble method is developed for the quality prediction of nonlinear and non-Gaussian batch processes. A set of input variable sets are obtained by bootstrapping and PMI criterion. Then, multiple local GPR models are developed based on each local input variable set. When a new test data is coming, the posterior probability of each best performance local model is estimated based on Bayesian inference and used to combine these local GPR models to get the final prediction result. The proposed soft sensor is demonstrated by applying to an industrial fed-batch chlortetracycline fermentation process.

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Molecular phylogenetic and dating analyses using mitochondrial DNA sequences of eyelid geckos (Squamata: Eublepharidae).

PubMed

Jonniaux, Pierre; Kumazawa, Yoshinori

2008-01-15

Mitochondrial DNA sequences of approximately 2.3 kbp including the complete NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene and its flanking genes, as well as parts of 12S and 16S rRNA genes were determined from major species of the eyelid gecko family Eublepharidae sensu [Kluge, A.G. 1987. Cladistic relationships in the Gekkonoidea (Squamata, Sauria). Misc. Publ. Mus. Zool. Univ. Michigan 173, 1-54.]. In contrast to previous morphological studies, phylogenetic analyses based on these sequences supported that Eublepharidae and Gekkonidae form a sister group with Pygopodidae, raising the possibility of homoplasious character change in some key features of geckos, such as reduction of movable eyelids and innovation of climbing toe pads. The phylogenetic analyses also provided a well-resolved tree for relationships between the eublepharid species. The Bayesian estimation of divergence times without assuming the molecular clock suggested the Jurassic divergence of Eublepharidae from Gekkonidae and radiations of most eublepharid genera around the Cretaceous. These dating results appeared to be robust against some conditional changes for time estimation, such as gene regions used, taxon representation, and data partitioning. Taken together with geological evidence, these results support the vicariant divergence of Eublepharidae and Gekkonidae by the breakup of Pangea into Laurasia and Gondwanaland, and recent dispersal of two African eublepharid genera from Eurasia to Africa after these landmasses were connected in the Early Miocene.

Using a multi-gene approach to infer the complicated phylogeny and evolutionary history of lorises (Order Primates: Family Lorisidae).

PubMed

Munds, Rachel A; Titus, Chelsea L; Eggert, Lori S; Blomquist, Gregory E

2018-05-25

Extensive phylogenetic studies have found robust phylogenies are modeled by using a multi-gene approach and sampling from the majority of the taxa of interest. Yet, molecular studies focused on the lorises, a cryptic primate family, have often relied on one gene, or just mitochondrial DNA, and many were unable to include all four genera in the analyses, resulting in inconclusive phylogenies. Past phylogenetic loris studies resulted in lorises being monophyletic, paraphyletic, or an unresolvable trichotomy with the closely related galagos. The purpose of our study is to improve our understanding of loris phylogeny and evolutionary history by using a multi-gene approach. We used the mitochondrial genes cytochrome b, and cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1, along with a nuclear intron (recombination activating gene 2) and nuclear exon (the melanocortin 1 receptor). Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted based on data from each locus, as well as on the concatenated sequences. The robust, concatenated results found lorises to be a monophyletic family (Lorisidae) (PP ≥ 0.99) with two distinct subfamilies: the African Perodictinae (PP ≥ 0.99) and the Asian Lorisinae (PP ≥ 0.99). Additionally, from these analyses all four genera were all recovered as monophyletic (PP ≥ 0.99). Some of our single-gene analyses recovered monophyly, but many had discordances, with some showing paraphyly or a deep-trichotomy. Bayesian partitioned analyses inferred the most recent common ancestors of lorises emerged ∼42 ± 6 million years ago (mya), the Asian Lorisinae separated ∼30 ± 9 mya, and Perodictinae arose ∼26 ± 10 mya. These times fit well with known historical tectonic shifts of the area, as well as with the sparse loris fossil record. Additionally, our results agree with previous multi-gene studies on Lorisidae which found lorises to be monophyletic and arising ∼40 mya (Perelman et al., 2011; Pozzi et al., 2014). By taking a multi-gene approach, we were able to recover a well-supported, monophyletic loris phylogeny and inferred the evolutionary history of this cryptic family. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.

PubMed

Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka

2014-02-01

In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain.

Introduction to Bayesian statistical approaches to compositional analyses of transgenic crops 1. Model validation and setting the stage.

PubMed

Harrison, Jay M; Breeze, Matthew L; Harrigan, George G

2011-08-01

Statistical comparisons of compositional data generated on genetically modified (GM) crops and their near-isogenic conventional (non-GM) counterparts typically rely on classical significance testing. This manuscript presents an introduction to Bayesian methods for compositional analysis along with recommendations for model validation. The approach is illustrated using protein and fat data from two herbicide tolerant GM soybeans (MON87708 and MON87708×MON89788) and a conventional comparator grown in the US in 2008 and 2009. Guidelines recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in conducting Bayesian analyses of clinical studies on medical devices were followed. This study is the first Bayesian approach to GM and non-GM compositional comparisons. The evaluation presented here supports a conclusion that a Bayesian approach to analyzing compositional data can provide meaningful and interpretable results. We further describe the importance of method validation and approaches to model checking if Bayesian approaches to compositional data analysis are to be considered viable by scientists involved in GM research and regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing Critical Thinking about Reporting of Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pullenayegum, Eleanor M.; Guo, Qing; Hopkins, Robert B.

2012-01-01

Graduate students in the health sciences who hope to become independent researchers must be able to write up their results at a standard suitable for submission to peer-reviewed journals. Bayesian analyses are still rare in the medical literature, and students are often unclear on what should be included in a manuscript. Whilst there are published…

Bayesian just-so stories in psychology and neuroscience.

PubMed

Bowers, Jeffrey S; Davis, Colin J

2012-05-01

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account for the data that are obtained, making the models unfalsifiable. It further relates to the fact that Bayesian theories are rarely better at predicting data compared with alternative (and simpler) non-Bayesian theories. Second, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in neuroscience is weaker still. There are impressive mathematical analyses showing how populations of neurons could compute in a Bayesian manner but little or no evidence that they do. Third, we challenge the general scientific approach that characterizes Bayesian theorizing in cognitive science. A common premise is that theories in psychology should largely be constrained by a rational analysis of what the mind ought to do. We question this claim and argue that many of the important constraints come from biological, evolutionary, and processing (algorithmic) considerations that have no adaptive relevance to the problem per se. In our view, these factors have contributed to the development of many Bayesian "just so" stories in psychology and neuroscience; that is, mathematical analyses of cognition that can be used to explain almost any behavior as optimal. 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Predictive distributions for between-study heterogeneity and simple methods for their application in Bayesian meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Jackson, Dan; Wei, Yinghui; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Numerous meta-analyses in healthcare research combine results from only a small number of studies, for which the variance representing between-study heterogeneity is estimated imprecisely. A Bayesian approach to estimation allows external evidence on the expected magnitude of heterogeneity to be incorporated. The aim of this paper is to provide tools that improve the accessibility of Bayesian meta-analysis. We present two methods for implementing Bayesian meta-analysis, using numerical integration and importance sampling techniques. Based on 14 886 binary outcome meta-analyses in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, we derive a novel set of predictive distributions for the degree of heterogeneity expected in 80 settings depending on the outcomes assessed and comparisons made. These can be used as prior distributions for heterogeneity in future meta-analyses. The two methods are implemented in R, for which code is provided. Both methods produce equivalent results to standard but more complex Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The priors are derived as log-normal distributions for the between-study variance, applicable to meta-analyses of binary outcomes on the log odds-ratio scale. The methods are applied to two example meta-analyses, incorporating the relevant predictive distributions as prior distributions for between-study heterogeneity. We have provided resources to facilitate Bayesian meta-analysis, in a form accessible to applied researchers, which allow relevant prior information on the degree of heterogeneity to be incorporated. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25475839

DIVERSITY in binding, regulation, and evolution revealed from high-throughput ChIP.

PubMed

Mitra, Sneha; Biswas, Anushua; Narlikar, Leelavati

2018-04-01

Genome-wide in vivo protein-DNA interactions are routinely mapped using high-throughput chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP). ChIP-reported regions are typically investigated for enriched sequence-motifs, which are likely to model the DNA-binding specificity of the profiled protein and/or of co-occurring proteins. However, simple enrichment analyses can miss insights into the binding-activity of the protein. Note that ChIP reports regions making direct contact with the protein as well as those binding through intermediaries. For example, consider a ChIP experiment targeting protein X, which binds DNA at its cognate sites, but simultaneously interacts with four other proteins. Each of these proteins also binds to its own specific cognate sites along distant parts of the genome, a scenario consistent with the current view of transcriptional hubs and chromatin loops. Since ChIP will pull down all X-associated regions, the final reported data will be a union of five distinct sets of regions, each containing binding sites of one of the five proteins, respectively. Characterizing all five different motifs and the corresponding sets is important to interpret the ChIP experiment and ultimately, the role of X in regulation. We present diversity which attempts exactly this: it partitions the data so that each partition can be characterized with its own de novo motif. Diversity uses a Bayesian approach to identify the optimal number of motifs and the associated partitions, which together explain the entire dataset. This is in contrast to standard motif finders, which report motifs individually enriched in the data, but do not necessarily explain all reported regions. We show that the different motifs and associated regions identified by diversity give insights into the various complexes that may be forming along the chromatin, something that has so far not been attempted from ChIP data. Webserver at http://diversity.ncl.res.in/; standalone (Mac OS X/Linux) from https://github.com/NarlikarLab/DIVERSITY/releases/tag/v1.0.0.

Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning

PubMed Central

Tubau, Elisabet; Aguilar-Lleyda, David; Johnson, Eric D.

2015-01-01

The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a two-step decision problem involving counterintuitive conditional probabilities. The first choice is made among three equally probable options, whereas the second choice takes place after the elimination of one of the non-selected options which does not hide the prize. Differing from most Bayesian problems, statistical information in the MHD has to be inferred, either by learning outcome probabilities or by reasoning from the presented sequence of events. This often leads to suboptimal decisions and erroneous probability judgments. Specifically, decision makers commonly develop a wrong intuition that final probabilities are equally distributed, together with a preference for their first choice. Several studies have shown that repeated practice enhances sensitivity to the different reward probabilities, but does not facilitate correct Bayesian reasoning. However, modest improvements in probability judgments have been observed after guided explanations. To explain these dissociations, the present review focuses on two types of causes producing the observed biases: Emotional-based choice biases and cognitive limitations in understanding probabilistic information. Among the latter, we identify a crucial cause for the universal difficulty in overcoming the equiprobability illusion: Incomplete representation of prior and conditional probabilities. We conclude that repeated practice and/or high incentives can be effective for overcoming choice biases, but promoting an adequate partitioning of possibilities seems to be necessary for overcoming cognitive illusions and improving Bayesian reasoning. PMID:25873906

Introduction in IND and recursive partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray; Caruana, Rich

1991-01-01

This manual describes the IND package for learning tree classifiers from data. The package is an integrated C and C shell re-implementation of tree learning routines such as CART, C4, and various MDL and Bayesian variations. The package includes routines for experiment control, interactive operation, and analysis of tree building. The manual introduces the system and its many options, gives a basic review of tree learning, contains a guide to the literature and a glossary, and lists the manual pages for the routines and instructions on installation.

Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision-makers.

PubMed

Steingroever, Helen; Pachur, Thorsten; Šmíra, Martin; Lee, Michael D

2018-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is one of the most popular experimental paradigms for comparing complex decision-making across groups. Most commonly, IGT behavior is analyzed using frequentist tests to compare performance across groups, and to compare inferred parameters of cognitive models developed for the IGT. Here, we present a Bayesian alternative based on Bayesian repeated-measures ANOVA for comparing performance, and a suite of three complementary model-based methods for assessing the cognitive processes underlying IGT performance. The three model-based methods involve Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation, Bayes factor model comparison, and Bayesian latent-mixture modeling. We illustrate these Bayesian methods by applying them to test the extent to which differences in intuitive versus deliberate decision style are associated with differences in IGT performance. The results show that intuitive and deliberate decision-makers behave similarly on the IGT, and the modeling analyses consistently suggest that both groups of decision-makers rely on similar cognitive processes. Our results challenge the notion that individual differences in intuitive and deliberate decision styles have a broad impact on decision-making. They also highlight the advantages of Bayesian methods, especially their ability to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis, and that they allow model-based analyses to incorporate hierarchical and latent-mixture structures.

Bayesian inference of stress release models applied to some Italian seismogenic zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotondi, R.; Varini, E.

2007-04-01

In this paper, we evaluate the seismic hazard of a region in southern Italy by analysing stress release models from the Bayesian viewpoint; the data are drawn from the most recent version of the parametric catalogue of Italian earthquakes. For estimation we just use the events up to 1992, then we forecast the date of the next event through a stochastic simulation method and we compare the result with the really occurred shocks in the span 1993-2002. The original version of the stress release model, proposed by Vere-Jones in 1978, transposes Reid's elastic rebound theory in the framework of stochastic point processes. Since the nineties enriched versions of this model have appeared in the literature, applied to historical catalogues from China, Iran, Japan; they envisage the identification of independent or interacting tectonic subunits constituting the region under exam. It follows that the stress release models, designed for regional analyses, are evolving towards studies on fault segments, realizing some degree of convergence to those models that start from an individual fault and, considering the interactions with nearby segments, are driven to studies on regional scale. The optimal performance of the models we consider depends on a set of choices among which: the seismogenic region and possible subzones, the threshold magnitude, the length of the time period. In this paper, we focus our attention on the influence of the subdivision of the region under exam into tectonic units; in the light of the recent studies on the fault segmentation model of Italy we propose a partition of Sannio-Matese-Ofanto-Irpinia, one of the most seismically active region in southern Italy. The results show that the performance of the stress release models improves in terms of both fitting and forecasting when the region is split up into parts including new information about potential seismogenic sources.

Three Cambrian fossils assembled into an extinct body plan of cnidarian affinity.

PubMed

Ou, Qiang; Han, Jian; Zhang, Zhifei; Shu, Degan; Sun, Ge; Mayer, Georg

2017-08-15

The early Cambrian problematica Xianguangia sinica , Chengjiangopenna wangii , and Galeaplumosus abilus from the Chengjiang biota (Yunnan, China) have caused much controversy in the past and their phylogenetic placements remain unresolved. Here we show, based on exceptionally preserved material (85 new specimens plus type material), that specimens previously assigned to these three species are in fact parts of the same organism and propose that C. wangii and G. abilus are junior synonyms of X. sinica Our reconstruction of the complete animal reveals an extinct body plan that combines the characteristics of the three described species and is distinct from all known fossil and living taxa. This animal resembled a cnidarian polyp in overall morphology and having a gastric cavity partitioned by septum-like structures. However, it possessed an additional body cavity within its holdfast, an anchoring pit on the basal disk, and feather-like tentacles with densely ciliated pinnules arranged in an alternating pattern, indicating that it was a suspension feeder rather than a predatory actiniarian. Phylogenetic analyses using Bayesian inference and maximum parsimony suggest that X. sinica is a stem-group cnidarian. This relationship implies that the last common ancestor of X. sinica and crown cnidarians was probably a benthic, polypoid animal with a partitioned gastric cavity and a single mouth/anus opening. This extinct body plan suggests that feeding strategies of stem cnidarians may have been drastically different from that of their crown relatives, which are almost exclusively predators, and reveals that the morphological disparity of total-group Cnidaria is greater than previously assumed.

Three Cambrian fossils assembled into an extinct body plan of cnidarian affinity

PubMed Central

Ou, Qiang; Han, Jian; Zhang, Zhifei; Shu, Degan; Sun, Ge; Mayer, Georg

2017-01-01

The early Cambrian problematica Xianguangia sinica, Chengjiangopenna wangii, and Galeaplumosus abilus from the Chengjiang biota (Yunnan, China) have caused much controversy in the past and their phylogenetic placements remain unresolved. Here we show, based on exceptionally preserved material (85 new specimens plus type material), that specimens previously assigned to these three species are in fact parts of the same organism and propose that C. wangii and G. abilus are junior synonyms of X. sinica. Our reconstruction of the complete animal reveals an extinct body plan that combines the characteristics of the three described species and is distinct from all known fossil and living taxa. This animal resembled a cnidarian polyp in overall morphology and having a gastric cavity partitioned by septum-like structures. However, it possessed an additional body cavity within its holdfast, an anchoring pit on the basal disk, and feather-like tentacles with densely ciliated pinnules arranged in an alternating pattern, indicating that it was a suspension feeder rather than a predatory actiniarian. Phylogenetic analyses using Bayesian inference and maximum parsimony suggest that X. sinica is a stem-group cnidarian. This relationship implies that the last common ancestor of X. sinica and crown cnidarians was probably a benthic, polypoid animal with a partitioned gastric cavity and a single mouth/anus opening. This extinct body plan suggests that feeding strategies of stem cnidarians may have been drastically different from that of their crown relatives, which are almost exclusively predators, and reveals that the morphological disparity of total-group Cnidaria is greater than previously assumed. PMID:28760981

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Rate variation and estimation of divergence times using strict and relaxed clocks.

PubMed

Brown, Richard P; Yang, Ziheng

2011-09-26

Understanding causes of biological diversity may be greatly enhanced by knowledge of divergence times. Strict and relaxed clock models are used in Bayesian estimation of divergence times. We examined whether: i) strict clock models are generally more appropriate in shallow phylogenies where rate variation is expected to be low, ii) the likelihood ratio test of the clock (LRT) reliably informs which model is appropriate for dating divergence times. Strict and relaxed models were used to analyse sequences simulated under different levels of rate variation. Published shallow phylogenies (Black bass, Primate-sucking lice, Podarcis lizards, Gallotiinae lizards, and Caprinae mammals) were also analysed to determine natural levels of rate variation relative to the performance of the different models. Strict clock analyses performed well on data simulated under the independent rates model when the standard deviation of log rate on branches, σ, was low (≤ 0.1), but were inappropriate when σ>0.1 (95% of rates fall within 0.0082-0.0121 subs/site/Ma when σ = 0.1, for a mean rate of 0.01). The independent rates relaxed clock model performed well at all levels of rate variation, although posterior intervals on times were significantly wider than for the strict clock. The strict clock is therefore superior when rate variation is low. The performance of a correlated rates relaxed clock model was similar to the strict clock. Increased numbers of independent loci led to slightly narrower posteriors under the relaxed clock while older root ages provided proportionately narrower posteriors. The LRT had low power for σ = 0.01-0.1, but high power for σ = 0.5-2.0. Posterior means of σ2 were useful for assessing rate variation in published datasets. Estimates of natural levels of rate variation ranged from 0.05-3.38 for different partitions. Differences in divergence times between relaxed and strict clock analyses were greater in two datasets with higher σ2 for one or more partitions, supporting the simulation results. The strict clock can be superior for trees with shallow roots because of low levels of rate variation between branches. The LRT allows robust assessment of suitability of the clock model as does examination of posteriors on σ2.

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

PubMed

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty.

PubMed

de Villemereuil, Pierre; Wells, Jessie A; Edwards, Robert D; Blomberg, Simon P

2012-06-28

Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language. PMID:22741602

Diagnostic accuracy of a bayesian latent group analysis for the detection of malingering-related poor effort.

PubMed

Ortega, Alonso; Labrenz, Stephan; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

2013-01-01

In the last decade, different statistical techniques have been introduced to improve assessment of malingering-related poor effort. In this context, we have recently shown preliminary evidence that a Bayesian latent group model may help to optimize classification accuracy using a simulation research design. In the present study, we conducted two analyses. Firstly, we evaluated how accurately this Bayesian approach can distinguish between participants answering in an honest way (honest response group) and participants feigning cognitive impairment (experimental malingering group). Secondly, we tested the accuracy of our model in the differentiation between patients who had real cognitive deficits (cognitively impaired group) and participants who belonged to the experimental malingering group. All Bayesian analyses were conducted using the raw scores of a visual recognition forced-choice task (2AFC), the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM, Trial 2), and the Word Memory Test (WMT, primary effort subtests). The first analysis showed 100% accuracy for the Bayesian model in distinguishing participants of both groups with all effort measures. The second analysis showed outstanding overall accuracy of the Bayesian model when estimates were obtained from the 2AFC and the TOMM raw scores. Diagnostic accuracy of the Bayesian model diminished when using the WMT total raw scores. Despite, overall diagnostic accuracy can still be considered excellent. The most plausible explanation for this decrement is the low performance in verbal recognition and fluency tasks of some patients of the cognitively impaired group. Additionally, the Bayesian model provides individual estimates, p(zi |D), of examinees' effort levels. In conclusion, both high classification accuracy levels and Bayesian individual estimates of effort may be very useful for clinicians when assessing for effort in medico-legal settings.

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.

2010-01-01

One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

PubMed

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Open-source Software for Exoplanet Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cubillos, Patricio; Blecic, Jasmina; Harrington, Joseph

2018-01-01

I will present a suite of self-standing open-source tools to model and retrieve exoplanet spectra implemented for Python. These include: (1) a Bayesian-statistical package to run Levenberg-Marquardt optimization and Markov-chain Monte Carlo posterior sampling, (2) a package to compress line-transition data from HITRAN or Exomol without loss of information, (3) a package to compute partition functions for HITRAN molecules, (4) a package to compute collision-induced absorption, and (5) a package to produce radiative-transfer spectra of transit and eclipse exoplanet observations and atmospheric retrievals.

Introduction to IND and recursive partitioning, version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray; Caruana, Rich

1991-01-01

This manual describes the IND package for learning tree classifiers from data. The package is an integrated C and C shell re-implementation of tree learning routines such as CART, C4, and various MDL and Bayesian variations. The package includes routines for experiment control, interactive operation, and analysis of tree building. The manual introduces the system and its many options, gives a basic review of tree learning, contains a guide to the literature and a glossary, lists the manual pages for the routines, and instructions on installation.

Fast genomic predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and multilocus models of threshold traits including censored Gaussian data.

PubMed

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2013-09-04

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed.

Fast Genomic Predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and Multilocus Models of Threshold Traits Including Censored Gaussian Data

PubMed Central

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P.; Sillanpää, Mikko J.

2013-01-01

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed. PMID:23821618

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; White, Ian R; Jackson, Dan; Spiegelhalter, David J; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-20

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trace element partitioning between plagioclase and melt: An investigation of the impact of experimental and analytical procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Roger L.; Ustunisik, Gokce; Weinsteiger, Allison B.; Tepley, Frank J.; Johnston, A. Dana; Kent, Adam J. R.

2017-09-01

Quantitative models of petrologic processes require accurate partition coefficients. Our ability to obtain accurate partition coefficients is constrained by their dependence on pressure temperature and composition, and on the experimental and analytical techniques we apply. The source and magnitude of error in experimental studies of trace element partitioning may go unrecognized if one examines only the processed published data. The most important sources of error are relict crystals, and analyses of more than one phase in the analytical volume. Because we have typically published averaged data, identification of compromised data is difficult if not impossible. We addressed this problem by examining unprocessed data from plagioclase/melt partitioning experiments, by comparing models based on that data with existing partitioning models, and evaluated the degree to which the partitioning models are dependent on the calibration data. We found that partitioning models are dependent on the calibration data in ways that result in erroneous model values, and that the error will be systematic and dependent on the value of the partition coefficient. In effect, use of different calibration datasets will result in partitioning models whose results are systematically biased, and that one can arrive at different and conflicting conclusions depending on how a model is calibrated, defeating the purpose of applying the models. Ultimately this is an experimental data problem, which can be solved if we publish individual analyses (not averages) or use a projection method wherein we use an independent compositional constraint to identify and estimate the uncontaminated composition of each phase.

Evaluating fossil calibrations for dating phylogenies in light of rates of molecular evolution: a comparison of three approaches.

PubMed

Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi; Scott Keogh, J; Avise, John C

2012-01-01

Evolutionary and biogeographic studies increasingly rely on calibrated molecular clocks to date key events. Although there has been significant recent progress in development of the techniques used for molecular dating, many issues remain. In particular, controversies abound over the appropriate use and placement of fossils for calibrating molecular clocks. Several methods have been proposed for evaluating candidate fossils; however, few studies have compared the results obtained by different approaches. Moreover, no previous study has incorporated the effects of nucleotide saturation from different data types in the evaluation of candidate fossils. In order to address these issues, we compared three approaches for evaluating fossil calibrations: the single-fossil cross-validation method of Near, Meylan, and Shaffer (2005. Assessing concordance of fossil calibration points in molecular clock studies: an example using turtles. Am. Nat. 165:137-146), the empirical fossil coverage method of Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibration points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742), and the Bayesian multicalibration method of Sanders and Lee (2007. Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds. Biol. Lett. 3:275-279) and explicitly incorporate the effects of data type (nuclear vs. mitochondrial DNA) for identifying the most reliable or congruent fossil calibrations. We used advanced (Caenophidian) snakes as a case study; however, our results are applicable to any taxonomic group with multiple candidate fossils, provided appropriate taxon sampling and sufficient molecular sequence data are available. We found that data type strongly influenced which fossil calibrations were identified as outliers, regardless of which method was used. Despite the use of complex partitioned models of sequence evolution and multiple calibrations throughout the tree, saturation severely compressed basal branch lengths obtained from mitochondrial DNA compared with nuclear DNA. The effects of mitochondrial saturation were not ameliorated by analyzing a combined nuclear and mitochondrial data set. Although removing the third codon positions from the mitochondrial coding regions did not ameliorate saturation effects in the single-fossil cross-validations, it did in the Bayesian multicalibration analyses. Saturation significantly influenced the fossils that were selected as most reliable for all three methods evaluated. Our findings highlight the need to critically evaluate the fossils selected by data with different rates of nucleotide substitution and how data with different evolutionary rates affect the results of each method for evaluating fossils. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the advantages of using multiple independent fossil calibrations significantly outweigh any disadvantages.

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Spatiotemporal motion boundary detection and motion boundary velocity estimation for tracking moving objects with a moving camera: a level sets PDEs approach with concurrent camera motion compensation.

PubMed

Feghali, Rosario; Mitiche, Amar

2004-11-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate a method of tracking moving objects with a moving camera. This method estimates simultaneously the motion induced by camera movement. The problem is formulated as a Bayesian motion-based partitioning problem in the spatiotemporal domain of the image quence. An energy functional is derived from the Bayesian formulation. The Euler-Lagrange descent equations determine imultaneously an estimate of the image motion field induced by camera motion and an estimate of the spatiotemporal motion undary surface. The Euler-Lagrange equation corresponding to the surface is expressed as a level-set partial differential equation for topology independence and numerically stable implementation. The method can be initialized simply and can track multiple objects with nonsimultaneous motions. Velocities on motion boundaries can be estimated from geometrical properties of the motion boundary. Several examples of experimental verification are given using synthetic and real-image sequences.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

PubMed

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

Trophic structure of mesopelagic fishes in the western Mediterranean based on stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valls, M.; Olivar, M. P.; Fernández de Puelles, M. L.; Molí, B.; Bernal, A.; Sweeting, C. J.

2014-10-01

Mesopelagic fishes play an important role in the transfer of organic material in the photic zone to depth although the trophodynamic partitioning amongst co-existing and presumably competing species is unclear. This study employs combined carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ15N) of the 18 most abundant western Mediterranean mesopelagic fishes to explore niche partitioning in this group. Sampling was conducted along the water column from the shelf and slope grounds of the Balearic Islands in two contrasting periods (late autumn and summer). Trophodynamics were explored at assemblage level and at inter- and intra-species resolutions respectively using Bayesian diet mixing models and size specific behaviour respectively. Seasonal δ13C differences in near basal particulate organic matter (POM) and zooplankton fractions were almost directly replicated in higher fauna suggesting strong isotopic coupling between mesopelagic fishes and planktonic production. Despite reliance on similar basal production, species were segregated by trophic position with a graduation from 2.9 for the small Gonostomatidae Cyclothone braueri to 4.0 for the Myctophidae Lobianchia dofleini. Mixing model data reflected basic trophic position estimates with higher contributions of small fish and zooplankton/POM in higher and lower trophic level species respectively. Species could be categorized as showing preference for i) mesozooplankton/POM as for C. braueri, (in the lower TrL), ii) euphausiids and fish prey as for L. dofleini and the near bottom Lampanyctus crocodilus (in the upper TrL) and iii) mesozooplankton/euphausiids as Ceratoscopelus maderensis, Lampanyctus pusillus or the migrating L. crocodilus. There was little evidence of size based inter-population trophodynamics, with size-isotope trends explained by co-varying lipid content.

Evapotranspiration estimation using a parameter-parsimonious energy partition model over Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, D.; Agee, E.; Wang, J.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2017-12-01

The increased frequency and severity of droughts in the Amazon region have emphasized the potential vulnerability of the rainforests to heat and drought-induced stresses, highlighting the need to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of regional evapotranspiration (ET) and quantify resilience of the forest. Ground-based observations for estimating ET are resource intensive, making methods based on remotely sensed observations an attractive alternative. Several methodologies have been developed to estimate ET from satellite data, but challenges remained in model parameterization and satellite limited coverage reducing their utility for monitoring biodiverse regions. In this work, we apply a novel surface energy partition method (Maximum Entropy Production; MEP) based on Bayesian probability theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics to derive ET time series using satellite data for Amazon basin. For a large, sparsely monitored region such as the Amazon, this approach has the advantage methods of only using single level measurements of net radiation, temperature, and specific humidity data. Furthermore, it is not sensitive to the uncertainty of the input data and model parameters. In this first application of MEP theory for a tropical forest biome, we assess its performance at various spatiotemporal scales against a diverse field data sets. Specifically, the objective of this work is to test this method using eddy flux data for several locations across the Amazonia at sub-daily, monthly, and annual scales and compare the new estimates with those using traditional methods. Analyses of the derived ET time series will contribute to reducing the current knowledge gap surrounding the much debated response of the Amazon Basin region to droughts and offer a template for monitoring the long-term changes in global hydrologic cycle due to anthropogenic and natural causes.

CLIC, a tool for expanding biological pathways based on co-expression across thousands of datasets

PubMed Central

Li, Yang; Liu, Jun S.; Mootha, Vamsi K.

2017-01-01

In recent years, there has been a huge rise in the number of publicly available transcriptional profiling datasets. These massive compendia comprise billions of measurements and provide a special opportunity to predict the function of unstudied genes based on co-expression to well-studied pathways. Such analyses can be very challenging, however, since biological pathways are modular and may exhibit co-expression only in specific contexts. To overcome these challenges we introduce CLIC, CLustering by Inferred Co-expression. CLIC accepts as input a pathway consisting of two or more genes. It then uses a Bayesian partition model to simultaneously partition the input gene set into coherent co-expressed modules (CEMs), while assigning the posterior probability for each dataset in support of each CEM. CLIC then expands each CEM by scanning the transcriptome for additional co-expressed genes, quantified by an integrated log-likelihood ratio (LLR) score weighted for each dataset. As a byproduct, CLIC automatically learns the conditions (datasets) within which a CEM is operative. We implemented CLIC using a compendium of 1774 mouse microarray datasets (28628 microarrays) or 1887 human microarray datasets (45158 microarrays). CLIC analysis reveals that of 910 canonical biological pathways, 30% consist of strongly co-expressed gene modules for which new members are predicted. For example, CLIC predicts a functional connection between protein C7orf55 (FMC1) and the mitochondrial ATP synthase complex that we have experimentally validated. CLIC is freely available at www.gene-clic.org. We anticipate that CLIC will be valuable both for revealing new components of biological pathways as well as the conditions in which they are active. PMID:28719601

Molecular systematics of the gonorynchiform fishes (Teleostei) based on whole mitogenome sequences: implications for higher-level relationships within the Otocephala.

PubMed

Lavoué, Sébastien; Miya, Masaki; Inoue, Jun G; Saitoh, Kenji; Ishiguro, Naoya B; Nishida, Mutsumi

2005-10-01

Although the order Gonorynchiformes includes only 31 species assigned to seven genera and four families, it exhibits a large variety of anatomical structures, making difficult the reconstruction of phylogenetic relationships among its representatives. Within the basal teleosts, the Gonorynchiformes belong to the Otocephala where they have been alternatively placed as the sister group of the Otophysi and of the Clupeiformes. In this context, we investigated the phylogeny of the Gonorynchiformes using whole mitogenome sequences from 40 species (six being newly determined for this study). Our taxonomic sampling included at least one species of each gonorynchiform genus and of each other major otocephalan lineage. Unambiguously aligned, concatenated mitogenomic sequences (excluding the ND6 gene and control region) were divided into five partitions (1st, 2nd, and 3rd codon positions, tRNA genes, and rRNA genes) and partitioned Bayesian analyses were conducted. The resultant phylogenetic trees were fully resolved, with most of the nodes well supported by the high posterior probabilities. As expected, the Otocephala were recovered as monophyletic. Within this group, the mitogenome data supported the monophyly of Alepocephaloidei, Gonorynchiformes, Otophysi, and Clupeiformes. The Gonorynchiformes and the Otophysi formed a sister group, rending the Ostariophysi monophyletic. This result conflicts with previous mitogenomic phylogenetic studies, in which a sister relationship was found between Clupeiformes and Gonorynchiformes. We discussed the possible causes of this incongruence. Within the Gonorynchiformes, the following original topology was found: (Gonorynchus (Chanos (Phractolaemus (Cromeria (Grasseichthys (Kneria, Parakneria)))))). We confirmed that the paedomorphic species Cromeria nilotica and Grasseichthys gabonensis belong to the family Kneriidae; however, the two species together did not form a monophyletic group. This result challenges the value of reductive or absent characters as synapomorphies in this group.

Bayesian Analysis of Silica Exposure and Lung Cancer Using Human and Animal Studies.

PubMed

Bartell, Scott M; Hamra, Ghassan Badri; Steenland, Kyle

2017-03-01

Bayesian methods can be used to incorporate external information into epidemiologic exposure-response analyses of silica and lung cancer. We used data from a pooled mortality analysis of silica and lung cancer (n = 65,980), using untransformed and log-transformed cumulative exposure. Animal data came from chronic silica inhalation studies using rats. We conducted Bayesian analyses with informative priors based on the animal data and different cross-species extrapolation factors. We also conducted analyses with exposure measurement error corrections in the absence of a gold standard, assuming Berkson-type error that increased with increasing exposure. The pooled animal data exposure-response coefficient was markedly higher (log exposure) or lower (untransformed exposure) than the coefficient for the pooled human data. With 10-fold uncertainty, the animal prior had little effect on results for pooled analyses and only modest effects in some individual studies. One-fold uncertainty produced markedly different results for both pooled and individual studies. Measurement error correction had little effect in pooled analyses using log exposure. Using untransformed exposure, measurement error correction caused a 5% decrease in the exposure-response coefficient for the pooled analysis and marked changes in some individual studies. The animal prior had more impact for smaller human studies and for one-fold versus three- or 10-fold uncertainty. Adjustment for Berkson error using Bayesian methods had little effect on the exposure-response coefficient when exposure was log transformed or when the sample size was large. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B160.

Phylotranscriptomic analysis of the origin and early diversification of land plants

PubMed Central

Wickett, Norman J.; Mirarab, Siavash; Nguyen, Nam; Warnow, Tandy; Carpenter, Eric; Matasci, Naim; Ayyampalayam, Saravanaraj; Barker, Michael S.; Burleigh, J. Gordon; Gitzendanner, Matthew A.; Ruhfel, Brad R.; Wafula, Eric; Graham, Sean W.; Mathews, Sarah; Melkonian, Michael; Soltis, Douglas E.; Soltis, Pamela S.; Miles, Nicholas W.; Rothfels, Carl J.; Pokorny, Lisa; Shaw, A. Jonathan; DeGironimo, Lisa; Stevenson, Dennis W.; Surek, Barbara; Villarreal, Juan Carlos; Roure, Béatrice; Philippe, Hervé; dePamphilis, Claude W.; Chen, Tao; Deyholos, Michael K.; Baucom, Regina S.; Kutchan, Toni M.; Augustin, Megan M.; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Yong; Tian, Zhijian; Yan, Zhixiang; Wu, Xiaolei; Sun, Xiao; Wong, Gane Ka-Shu; Leebens-Mack, James

2014-01-01

Reconstructing the origin and evolution of land plants and their algal relatives is a fundamental problem in plant phylogenetics, and is essential for understanding how critical adaptations arose, including the embryo, vascular tissue, seeds, and flowers. Despite advances in molecular systematics, some hypotheses of relationships remain weakly resolved. Inferring deep phylogenies with bouts of rapid diversification can be problematic; however, genome-scale data should significantly increase the number of informative characters for analyses. Recent phylogenomic reconstructions focused on the major divergences of plants have resulted in promising but inconsistent results. One limitation is sparse taxon sampling, likely resulting from the difficulty and cost of data generation. To address this limitation, transcriptome data for 92 streptophyte taxa were generated and analyzed along with 11 published plant genome sequences. Phylogenetic reconstructions were conducted using up to 852 nuclear genes and 1,701,170 aligned sites. Sixty-nine analyses were performed to test the robustness of phylogenetic inferences to permutations of the data matrix or to phylogenetic method, including supermatrix, supertree, and coalescent-based approaches, maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods, partitioned and unpartitioned analyses, and amino acid versus DNA alignments. Among other results, we find robust support for a sister-group relationship between land plants and one group of streptophyte green algae, the Zygnematophyceae. Strong and robust support for a clade comprising liverworts and mosses is inconsistent with a widely accepted view of early land plant evolution, and suggests that phylogenetic hypotheses used to understand the evolution of fundamental plant traits should be reevaluated. PMID:25355905

Evaluating Spatial Variability in Sediment and Phosphorus Concentration-Discharge Relationships Using Bayesian Inference and Self-Organizing Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Underwood, Kristen L.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Schroth, Andrew W.; Dewoolkar, Mandar M.

2017-12-01

Given the variable biogeochemical, physical, and hydrological processes driving fluvial sediment and nutrient export, the water science and management communities need data-driven methods to identify regions prone to production and transport under variable hydrometeorological conditions. We use Bayesian analysis to segment concentration-discharge linear regression models for total suspended solids (TSS) and particulate and dissolved phosphorus (PP, DP) using 22 years of monitoring data from 18 Lake Champlain watersheds. Bayesian inference was leveraged to estimate segmented regression model parameters and identify threshold position. The identified threshold positions demonstrated a considerable range below and above the median discharge—which has been used previously as the default breakpoint in segmented regression models to discern differences between pre and post-threshold export regimes. We then applied a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which partitioned the watersheds into clusters of TSS, PP, and DP export regimes using watershed characteristics, as well as Bayesian regression intercepts and slopes. A SOM defined two clusters of high-flux basins, one where PP flux was predominantly episodic and hydrologically driven; and another in which the sediment and nutrient sourcing and mobilization were more bimodal, resulting from both hydrologic processes at post-threshold discharges and reactive processes (e.g., nutrient cycling or lateral/vertical exchanges of fine sediment) at prethreshold discharges. A separate DP SOM defined two high-flux clusters exhibiting a bimodal concentration-discharge response, but driven by differing land use. Our novel framework shows promise as a tool with broad management application that provides insights into landscape drivers of riverine solute and sediment export.

Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

2011-01-01

Karabatsos and Walker (2011) introduced a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model. Through analyses of real and simulated data, they showed that the BNP regression model outperforms other parametric and nonparametric regression models of common use, in terms of predictive accuracy of the outcome (dependent) variable. The other,…

Bayesian and Frequentist Methods for Estimating Joint Uncertainty of Freundlich Adsorption Isotherm Fitting Parameters

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we present methods for estimating Freundlich isotherm fitting parameters (K and N) and their joint uncertainty, which have been implemented into the freeware software platforms R and WinBUGS. These estimates were determined by both Frequentist and Bayesian analyse...

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Millennial strain partitioning and fault interaction revealed by 36Cl cosmogenic nuclide datasets from Abruzzo, Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregory, L. C.; Phillips, R. J.; Roberts, G.; Cowie, P. A.; Shanks, R. P.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Wedmore, L. N. J.; Zijerveld, L.

2015-12-01

In zones of distributed continental faulting, it is critical to understand how slip is partitioned onto brittle structures over both long-term millennial time scales and shorter-term individual earthquake cycles. The comparison of slip distributions on different timescales is challenging due to earthquake repeat-times being longer or similar to historical earthquake records, and a paucity of data on fault activity covering millennial to Quaternary scales in detail. Cosmogenic isotope analyses from bedrock fault scarps have the potential to bridge the gap, as these datasets track the exposure of fault planes due to earthquakes with better-than-millennial resolution. In this presentation, we will use an extensive 36Cl dataset to characterise late Holocene activity across a complicated network of normal faults in Abruzzo, Italy, comparing the most recent fault behaviour with the historical earthquake record in the region. Extensional faulting in Abruzzo has produced scarps of exposed bedrock limestone fault planes that have been preserved since the last glacial maximum (LGM). 36Cl accumulates in bedrock fault scarps as the plane is progressively exhumed by earthquakes and thus the concentration of 36Cl measured up the fault plane reflects the rate and patterns of slip. In this presentation, we will focus on the most recent record, revealed at the base of the fault. Utilising new Bayesian modelling techniques on new and previously collected data, we compare evidence for this most recent period of slip (over the last several thousands of years) across 5-6 fault zones located across strike from each other. Each sampling site is carefully characterised using LiDAR and GPR. We demonstrate that the rate of slip on individual fault strands varies significantly, between having periods of accelerated slip to relative quiescence. Where data is compared between across-strike fault zones and with the historical catalogue, it appears that slip is partitioned such that one fault zone takes up a significant portion of strain across the region for hundreds to thousands of years.

Evolution of foraging behaviour: Deep intra-generic genetic divergence between territorial and non-territorial southern African patellid limpets.

PubMed

Mmonwa, Kolobe L; Teske, Peter R; McQuaid, Christopher D; Barker, Nigel P

2017-12-01

Southern Africa is a biodiversity hotspot of patellid limpets, with three genera (Helcion, Cymbula and Scutellastra) identified and described in the region. Scutellastra is the most diverse and most frequently studied of these and, along with Cymbula, includes species with territorial and non-territorial foraging behaviours. We used three mitochondrial markers (12S rRNA, 16S rRNA and COI) and one nuclear marker (ATPSβ intron) to assess evolutionary relationships among species of Cymbula and Scutellastra with these two foraging behaviours and to identify which foraging mode is the more ancient. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference phylogenetic analyses revealed that the species sharing a foraging type are monophyletic in both genera. Territoriality is a derived character, as the clades with this foraging type are nested within a tree that otherwise comprises non-territorial taxa. These include Helcion, which was recovered as sister to the Cymbula/Scutellastra clade, and the next basal genus, Patella, which is ancestral to all southern African patellogastropods. Deep genetic divergence between the two foraging traits reflects strong adaptive effects of resource partitioning in the evolution of southern African patellid limpets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitogenomic circumscription of a novel percomorph fish clade mainly comprising "Syngnathoidei" (Teleostei).

PubMed

Song, Ha Yeun; Mabuchi, Kohji; Satoh, Takashi P; Moore, Jon A; Yamanoue, Yusuke; Miya, Masaki; Nishida, Mutsumi

2014-06-01

Percomorpha, comprising about 60% of modern teleost fishes, has been described as the "(unresolved) bush at the top" of the tree, with its intrarelationships still being ambiguous owing to huge diversity (>15,000 species). Recent molecular phylogenetic studies based on extensive taxon and character sampling, however, have revealed a number of unexpected clades of Percomorpha, and one of which is composed of Syngnathoidei (seahorses, pipefishes, and their relatives) plus several groups distributed across three different orders. To circumscribe the clade more definitely, we sampled several candidate taxa with reference to the previous studies and newly determined whole mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) sequences for 16 percomorph species across syngnathoids, dactylopterids, and their putatively closely-related fishes (Mullidae, Callionymoidei, Malacanthidae). Unambiguously aligned sequences (13,872 bp) from those 16 species plus 78 percomorphs and two outgroups (total 96 species) were subjected to partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. The resulting trees revealed a highly supported clade comprising seven families in Syngnathoidei (Gasterosteiformes), Dactylopteridae (Scorpaeniformes), Mullidae in Percoidei and two families in Callionymoidei (Perciformes). We herein proposed to call this clade "Syngnathiformes" following the latest nuclear DNA studies with some revisions on the included families. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Haplogroup relationships between domestic and wild sheep resolved using a mitogenome panel.

PubMed

Meadows, J R S; Hiendleder, S; Kijas, J W

2011-04-01

Five haplogroups have been identified in domestic sheep through global surveys of mitochondrial (mt) sequence variation, however these group classifications are often based on small fragments of the complete mtDNA sequence; partial control region or the cytochrome B gene. This study presents the complete mitogenome from representatives of each haplogroup identified in domestic sheep, plus a sample of their wild relatives. Comparison of the sequence successfully resolved the relationships between each haplogroup and provided insight into the relationship with wild sheep. The five haplogroups were characterised as branching independently, a radiation that shared a common ancestor 920,000 ± 190,000 years ago based on protein coding sequence. The utility of various mtDNA components to inform the true relationship between sheep was also examined with Bayesian, maximum likelihood and partitioned Bremmer support analyses. The control region was found to be the mtDNA component, which contributed the highest amount of support to the tree generated using the complete data set. This study provides the nucleus of a mtDNA mitogenome panel, which can be used to assess additional mitogenomes and serve as a reference set to evaluate small fragments of the mtDNA.

Haplogroup relationships between domestic and wild sheep resolved using a mitogenome panel

PubMed Central

Meadows, J R S; Hiendleder, S; Kijas, J W

2011-01-01

Five haplogroups have been identified in domestic sheep through global surveys of mitochondrial (mt) sequence variation, however these group classifications are often based on small fragments of the complete mtDNA sequence; partial control region or the cytochrome B gene. This study presents the complete mitogenome from representatives of each haplogroup identified in domestic sheep, plus a sample of their wild relatives. Comparison of the sequence successfully resolved the relationships between each haplogroup and provided insight into the relationship with wild sheep. The five haplogroups were characterised as branching independently, a radiation that shared a common ancestor 920 000±190 000 years ago based on protein coding sequence. The utility of various mtDNA components to inform the true relationship between sheep was also examined with Bayesian, maximum likelihood and partitioned Bremmer support analyses. The control region was found to be the mtDNA component, which contributed the highest amount of support to the tree generated using the complete data set. This study provides the nucleus of a mtDNA mitogenome panel, which can be used to assess additional mitogenomes and serve as a reference set to evaluate small fragments of the mtDNA. PMID:20940734

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes

PubMed Central

Weiss, Jeremy C.; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2013-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability. PMID:25284967

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes.

PubMed

Weiss, Jeremy C; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2012-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

Duplication and diversification of the LEAFY HULL STERILE1 and Oryza sativa MADS5 SEPALLATA lineages in graminoid Poales

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Gene duplication and the subsequent divergence in function of the resulting paralogs via subfunctionalization and/or neofunctionalization is hypothesized to have played a major role in the evolution of plant form. The LEAFY HULL STERILE1 (LHS1) SEPALLATA (SEP) genes have been linked with the origin and diversification of the grass spikelet, but it is uncertain 1) when the duplication event that produced the LHS1 clade and its paralogous lineage Oryza sativa MADS5 (OSM5) occurred, and 2) how changes in gene structure and/or expression might have contributed to subfunctionalization and/or neofunctionalization in the two lineages. Methods Phylogenetic relationships among 84 SEP genes were estimated using Bayesian methods. RNA expression patterns were inferred using in situ hybridization. The patterns of protein sequence and RNA expression evolution were reconstructed using maximum parsimony (MP) and maximum likelihood (ML) methods, respectively. Results Phylogenetic analyses mapped the LHS1/OSM5 duplication event to the base of the grass family. MP character reconstructions estimated a change from cytosine to thymine in the first codon position of the first amino acid after the Zea mays MADS3 (ZMM3) domain converted a glutamine to a stop codon in the OSM5 ancestor following the LHS1/OSM5 duplication event. RNA expression analyses of OSM5 co-orthologs in Avena sativa, Chasmanthium latifolium, Hordeum vulgare, Pennisetum glaucum, and Sorghum bicolor followed by ML reconstructions of these data and previously published analyses estimated a complex pattern of gain and loss of LHS1 and OSM5 expression in different floral organs and different flowers within the spikelet or inflorescence. Conclusions Previous authors have reported that rice OSM5 and LHS1 proteins have different interaction partners indicating that the truncation of OSM5 following the LHS1/OSM5 duplication event has resulted in both partitioned and potentially novel gene functions. The complex pattern of OSM5 and LHS1 expression evolution is not consistent with a simple subfunctionalization model following the gene duplication event, but there is evidence of recent partitioning of OSM5 and LHS1 expression within different floral organs of A. sativa, C. latifolium, P. glaucum and S. bicolor, and between the upper and lower florets of the two-flowered maize spikelet. PMID:22340849

A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkle, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha to Evaluate Informative Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okada, Kensuke

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as "alpha of…

Evidence of major genes affecting stress response in rainbow trout using Bayesian methods of complex segregation analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a first step towards the genetic mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting stress response variation in rainbow trout, we performed complex segregation analyses (CSA) fitting mixed inheritance models of plasma cortisol using Bayesian methods in large full-sib families of rainbow trout. ...

Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

2009-01-01

In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

PubMed

Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

2009-11-01

Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from data can be used to learn from censored survival data in the presence of light censoring (up to 20%) by treating censored cases as event-free. Given intermediate or heavy censoring, the learnt models become tuned to the majority class and would thus require a different approach.

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

Tracking the global dispersal of a cosmopolitan insect pest, the peach potato aphid.

PubMed

Margaritopoulos, John T; Kasprowicz, Louise; Malloch, Gaynor L; Fenton, Brian

2009-05-11

Global commerce and human transportation are responsible for the range expansion of various insect pests such as the plant sucking aphids. High resolution DNA markers provide the opportunity to examine the genetic structure of aphid populations, identify aphid genotypes and infer their evolutionary history and routes of expansion which is of value in developing management strategies. One of the most widespread aphid species is the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae, which is considered as a serious pest on various crops in many parts of the world. The present study examined the genetic variation of this aphid at a world scale and then related this to distribution patterns. In particular, 197 aphid parthenogenetic lineages from around the world were analysed with six microsatellite loci. Bayesian clustering and admixture analysis split the aphid genotypes into three genetic clusters: European M. persicae persicae, New Zealand M. persicae persicae and Global M. persicae nicotianae. This partition was supported by FST and genetic distance analyses. The results showed two further points, a possible connection between genotypes found in the UK and New Zealand and globalization of nicotianae associated with colonisation of regions where tobacco is not cultivated. In addition, we report the presence of geographically widespread clones and for the first time the presence of a nicotianae genotype in the Old and New World. Lastly, heterozygote deficiency was detected in some sexual and asexual populations. The study revealed important genetic variation among the aphid populations we examined and this was partitioned according to region and host-plant. Clonal selection and gene flow between sexual and asexual lineages are important factors shaping the genetic structure of the aphid populations. In addition, the results reflected the globalization of two subspecies of M. persicae with successful clones being spread at various scales throughout the world. A subspecies appears to result from direct selection on tobacco plants. This information highlights the ultimate ability of a polyphagous aphid species to generate and maintain ecologically successful gene combinations through clonal propagation and the role of human transportation and global commerce for expanding their range.

Tracking the global dispersal of a cosmopolitan insect pest, the peach potato aphid

PubMed Central

Margaritopoulos, John T; Kasprowicz, Louise; Malloch, Gaynor L; Fenton, Brian

2009-01-01

Background Global commerce and human transportation are responsible for the range expansion of various insect pests such as the plant sucking aphids. High resolution DNA markers provide the opportunity to examine the genetic structure of aphid populations, identify aphid genotypes and infer their evolutionary history and routes of expansion which is of value in developing management strategies. One of the most widespread aphid species is the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae, which is considered as a serious pest on various crops in many parts of the world. The present study examined the genetic variation of this aphid at a world scale and then related this to distribution patterns. In particular, 197 aphid parthenogenetic lineages from around the world were analysed with six microsatellite loci. Results Bayesian clustering and admixture analysis split the aphid genotypes into three genetic clusters: European M. persicae persicae, New Zealand M. persicae persicae and Global M. persicae nicotianae. This partition was supported by FST and genetic distance analyses. The results showed two further points, a possible connection between genotypes found in the UK and New Zealand and globalization of nicotianae associated with colonisation of regions where tobacco is not cultivated. In addition, we report the presence of geographically widespread clones and for the first time the presence of a nicotianae genotype in the Old and New World. Lastly, heterozygote deficiency was detected in some sexual and asexual populations. Conclusion The study revealed important genetic variation among the aphid populations we examined and this was partitioned according to region and host-plant. Clonal selection and gene flow between sexual and asexual lineages are important factors shaping the genetic structure of the aphid populations. In addition, the results reflected the globalization of two subspecies of M. persicae with successful clones being spread at various scales throughout the world. A subspecies appears to result from direct selection on tobacco plants. This information highlights the ultimate ability of a polyphagous aphid species to generate and maintain ecologically successful gene combinations through clonal propagation and the role of human transportation and global commerce for expanding their range. PMID:19432979

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). Results The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions within the SAP in a transparent way when structuring the primary analysis, sensitivity or ancillary analyses, and specific analyses for secondary endpoints. The mean logarithmic score and DIC discriminate well between different model scenarios. It becomes obvious that the naive choice of a conventional random effects Poisson model is often inappropriate for real-life count data. The findings are used to specify an appropriate mixed model employed in the sensitivity analyses of an ongoing phase III trial. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian methods are not only appealing for inference but notably provide a sophisticated insight into different aspects of model performance, such as forecast verification or calibration checks, and can be applied within the model selection process. The mean of the logarithmic score is a robust tool for model ranking and is not sensitive to sample size. Therefore, these Bayesian model selection techniques offer helpful decision support for shaping sensitivity and ancillary analyses in a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial with longitudinal count data as the primary endpoint. PMID:22962944

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: an example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint.

PubMed

Adrion, Christine; Mansmann, Ulrich

2012-09-10

A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions within the SAP in a transparent way when structuring the primary analysis, sensitivity or ancillary analyses, and specific analyses for secondary endpoints. The mean logarithmic score and DIC discriminate well between different model scenarios. It becomes obvious that the naive choice of a conventional random effects Poisson model is often inappropriate for real-life count data. The findings are used to specify an appropriate mixed model employed in the sensitivity analyses of an ongoing phase III trial. The proposed Bayesian methods are not only appealing for inference but notably provide a sophisticated insight into different aspects of model performance, such as forecast verification or calibration checks, and can be applied within the model selection process. The mean of the logarithmic score is a robust tool for model ranking and is not sensitive to sample size. Therefore, these Bayesian model selection techniques offer helpful decision support for shaping sensitivity and ancillary analyses in a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial with longitudinal count data as the primary endpoint.

Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, James E.; Singh, Pallavi; Jathanna, Devcharan; Kumar, N. Samba; Karanth, K. Ullas

2012-01-01

1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

Bayesian generalized linear mixed modeling of Tuberculosis using informative priors.

PubMed

Ojo, Oluwatobi Blessing; Lougue, Siaka; Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa

2017-01-01

TB is rated as one of the world's deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014.

The decisive future of inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

2018-05-01

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

The dynamics of fidelity over the time course of long-term memory.

PubMed

Persaud, Kimele; Hemmer, Pernille

2016-08-01

Bayesian models of cognition assume that prior knowledge about the world influences judgments. Recent approaches have suggested that the loss of fidelity from working to long-term (LT) memory is simply due to an increased rate of guessing (e.g. Brady, Konkle, Gill, Oliva, & Alvarez, 2013). That is, recall is the result of either remembering (with some noise) or guessing. This stands in contrast to Bayesian models of cognition while assume that prior knowledge about the world influences judgments, and that recall is a combination of expectations learned from the environment and noisy memory representations. Here, we evaluate the time course of fidelity in LT episodic memory, and the relative contribution of prior category knowledge and guessing, using a continuous recall paradigm. At an aggregate level, performance reflects a high rate of guessing. However, when aggregate data is partitioned by lag (i.e., the number of presentations from study to test), or is un-aggregated, performance appears to be more complex than just remembering with some noise and guessing. We implemented three models: the standard remember-guess model, a three-component remember-guess model, and a Bayesian mixture model and evaluated these models against the data. The results emphasize the importance of taking into account the influence of prior category knowledge on memory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Experimental Analog for Metal-Sulfide Partitioning in Acapulcoite-Lodranite Meteorites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhaliwal, J. K.; Chabot, N. L.; Ash, R. D.; McCoy, T. J.

2018-05-01

This study builds on prior analyses of highly siderophile element (HSE) abundances in primitive achondrites. We performed melting experiments of naturally occurring FeNi and FeS to examine the effect of sulfur on HSE inter-element partitioning.

Bayesian Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliner, M.

2017-12-01

Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

Diet reconstruction and resource partitioning of a Caribbean marine mesopredator using stable isotope bayesian modelling.

PubMed

Tilley, Alexander; López-Angarita, Juliana; Turner, John R

2013-01-01

The trophic ecology of epibenthic mesopredators is not well understood in terms of prey partitioning with sympatric elasmobranchs or their effects on prey communities, yet the importance of omnivores in community trophic dynamics is being increasingly realised. This study used stable isotope analysis of (15)N and (13)C to model diet composition of wild southern stingrays Dasyatis americana and compare trophic niche space to nurse sharks Ginglymostoma cirratum and Caribbean reef sharks Carcharhinus perezi on Glovers Reef Atoll, Belize. Bayesian stable isotope mixing models were used to investigate prey choice as well as viable Diet-Tissue Discrimination Factors for use with stingrays. Stingray δ(15)N values showed the greatest variation and a positive relationship with size, with an isotopic niche width approximately twice that of sympatric species. Shark species exhibited comparatively restricted δ(15)N values and greater δ(13)C variation, with very little overlap of stingray niche space. Mixing models suggest bivalves and annelids are proportionally more important prey in the stingray diet than crustaceans and teleosts at Glovers Reef, in contrast to all but one published diet study using stomach contents from other locations. Incorporating gut contents information from the literature, we suggest diet-tissue discrimination factors values of Δ(15)N ≈ 2.7‰ and Δ(13)C ≈ 0.9‰ for stingrays in the absence of validation experiments. The wide trophic niche and lower trophic level exhibited by stingrays compared to sympatric sharks supports their putative role as important base stabilisers in benthic systems, with the potential to absorb trophic perturbations through numerous opportunistic prey interactions.

Analyzing the relationship between sequence divergence and nodal support using Bayesian phylogenetic analyses.

PubMed

Makowsky, Robert; Cox, Christian L; Roelke, Corey; Chippindale, Paul T

2010-11-01

Determining the appropriate gene for phylogeny reconstruction can be a difficult process. Rapidly evolving genes tend to resolve recent relationships, but suffer from alignment issues and increased homoplasy among distantly related species. Conversely, slowly evolving genes generally perform best for deeper relationships, but lack sufficient variation to resolve recent relationships. We determine the relationship between sequence divergence and Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction ability using both natural and simulated datasets. The natural data are based on 28 well-supported relationships within the subphylum Vertebrata. Sequences of 12 genes were acquired and Bayesian analyses were used to determine phylogenetic support for correct relationships. Simulated datasets were designed to determine whether an optimal range of sequence divergence exists across extreme phylogenetic conditions. Across all genes we found that an optimal range of divergence for resolving the correct relationships does exist, although this level of divergence expectedly depends on the distance metric. Simulated datasets show that an optimal range of sequence divergence exists across diverse topologies and models of evolution. We determine that a simple to measure property of genetic sequences (genetic distance) is related to phylogenic reconstruction ability in Bayesian analyses. This information should be useful for selecting the most informative gene to resolve any relationships, especially those that are difficult to resolve, as well as minimizing both cost and confounding information during project design. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Sorting through the chaff, nDNA gene trees for phylogenetic inference and hybrid identification of annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus).

PubMed

Moody, Michael L; Rieseberg, Loren H

2012-07-01

The annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus) present a formidable challenge for phylogenetic inference because of ancient hybrid speciation, recent introgression, and suspected issues with deep coalescence. Here we analyze sequence data from 11 nuclear DNA (nDNA) genes for multiple genotypes of species within the section to (1) reconstruct the phylogeny of this group, (2) explore the utility of nDNA gene trees for detecting hybrid speciation and introgression; and (3) test an empirical method of hybrid identification based on the phylogenetic congruence of nDNA gene trees from tightly linked genes. We uncovered considerable topological heterogeneity among gene trees with or without three previously identified hybrid species included in the analyses, as well as a general lack of reciprocal monophyly of species. Nonetheless, partitioned Bayesian analyses provided strong support for the reciprocal monophyly of all species except H. annuus (0.89 PP), the most widespread and abundant annual sunflower. Previous hypotheses of relationships among taxa were generally strongly supported (1.0 PP), except among taxa typically associated with H. annuus, apparently due to the paraphyly of the latter in all gene trees. While the individual nDNA gene trees provided a useful means for detecting recent hybridization, identification of ancient hybridization was problematic for all ancient hybrid species, even when linkage was considered. We discuss biological factors that affect the efficacy of phylogenetic methods for hybrid identification.

The impact of aerosol composition on the particle to gas partitioning of reactive mercury.

PubMed

Rutter, Andrew P; Schauer, James J

2007-06-01

A laboratory system was developed to study the gas-particle partitioning of reactive mercury (RM) as a function of aerosol composition in synthetic atmospheric particulate matter. The collection of RM was achieved by filter- and sorbent-based methods. Analyses of the RM collected on the filters and sorbents were performed using thermal extraction combined with cold vapor atomic fluorescence spectroscopy (CVAFS), allowing direct measurement of the RM load on the substrates. Laboratory measurements of the gas-particle partitioning coefficients of RM to atmospheric aerosol particles revealed a strong dependence on aerosol composition, with partitioning coefficients that varied by orders of magnitude depending on the composition of the particles. Particles of sodium nitrate and the chlorides of potassium and sodium had high partitioning coefficients, shifting the RM partitioning toward the particle phase, while ammonium sulfate, levoglucosan, and adipic acid caused the RM to partition toward the gas phase and, therefore, had partitioning coefficients that were lower by orders of magnitude.

Are Student Evaluations of Teaching Effectiveness Valid for Measuring Student Learning Outcomes in Business Related Classes? A Neural Network and Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.

2012-01-01

In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Model selection with multiple regression on distance matrices leads to incorrect inferences.

PubMed

Franckowiak, Ryan P; Panasci, Michael; Jarvis, Karl J; Acuña-Rodriguez, Ian S; Landguth, Erin L; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Wagner, Helene H

2017-01-01

In landscape genetics, model selection procedures based on Information Theoretic and Bayesian principles have been used with multiple regression on distance matrices (MRM) to test the relationship between multiple vectors of pairwise genetic, geographic, and environmental distance. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we examined the ability of model selection criteria based on Akaike's information criterion (AIC), its small-sample correction (AICc), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to reliably rank candidate models when applied with MRM while varying the sample size. The results showed a serious problem: all three criteria exhibit a systematic bias toward selecting unnecessarily complex models containing spurious random variables and erroneously suggest a high level of support for the incorrectly ranked best model. These problems effectively increased with increasing sample size. The failure of AIC, AICc, and BIC was likely driven by the inflated sample size and different sum-of-squares partitioned by MRM, and the resulting effect on delta values. Based on these findings, we strongly discourage the continued application of AIC, AICc, and BIC for model selection with MRM.

Stochastic modelling, Bayesian inference, and new in vivo measurements elucidate the debated mtDNA bottleneck mechanism

PubMed Central

Johnston, Iain G; Burgstaller, Joerg P; Havlicek, Vitezslav; Kolbe, Thomas; Rülicke, Thomas; Brem, Gottfried; Poulton, Jo; Jones, Nick S

2015-01-01

Dangerous damage to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) can be ameliorated during mammalian development through a highly debated mechanism called the mtDNA bottleneck. Uncertainty surrounding this process limits our ability to address inherited mtDNA diseases. We produce a new, physically motivated, generalisable theoretical model for mtDNA populations during development, allowing the first statistical comparison of proposed bottleneck mechanisms. Using approximate Bayesian computation and mouse data, we find most statistical support for a combination of binomial partitioning of mtDNAs at cell divisions and random mtDNA turnover, meaning that the debated exact magnitude of mtDNA copy number depletion is flexible. New experimental measurements from a wild-derived mtDNA pairing in mice confirm the theoretical predictions of this model. We analytically solve a mathematical description of this mechanism, computing probabilities of mtDNA disease onset, efficacy of clinical sampling strategies, and effects of potential dynamic interventions, thus developing a quantitative and experimentally-supported stochastic theory of the bottleneck. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07464.001 PMID:26035426

Deconstructing a Species-Complex: Geometric Morphometric and Molecular Analyses Define Species in the Western Rattlesnake (Crotalus viridis)

PubMed Central

Davis, Mark A.; Douglas, Marlis R.; Collyer, Michael L.; Douglas, Michael E.

2016-01-01

Morphological data are a conduit for the recognition and description of species, and their acquisition has recently been broadened by geometric morphometric (GM) approaches that co-join the collection of digital data with exploratory ‘big data’ analytics. We employed this approach to dissect the Western Rattlesnake (Crotalus viridis) species-complex in North America, currently partitioned by mitochondrial (mt)DNA analyses into eastern and western lineages (two and seven subspecies, respectively). The GM data (i.e., 33 dorsal and 50 lateral head landmarks) were gleaned from 2,824 individuals located in 10 museum collections. We also downloaded and concatenated sequences for six mtDNA genes from the NCBI GenBank database. GM analyses revealed significant head shape differences attributable to size and subspecies-designation (but not their interactions). Pairwise shape distances among subspecies were significantly greater than those derived from ancestral character states via squared-change parsimony, with the greatest differences separating those most closely related. This, in turn, suggests the potential for historic character displacement as a diversifying force in the complex. All subspecies, save one, were significantly differentiated in a Bayesian discriminant function analysis (DFA), regardless of whether our priors were uniform or informative (i.e., mtDNA data). Finally, shape differences among sister-clades were significantly greater than expected by chance alone under a Brownian model of evolution, promoting the hypothesis that selection rather than drift was the driving force in the evolution of the complex. Lastly, we combine head shape and mtDNA data so as to derived an integrative taxonomy that produced robust boundaries for six OTUs (operational taxonomic units) of the C. viridis complex. We suggest these boundaries are concomitant with species-status and subsequently provide a relevant nomenclature for its recognition and representation. PMID:26816132

Semivolatile POA and parameterized total combustion SOA in CMAQv5.2: impacts on source strength and partitioning

EPA Science Inventory

Mounting evidence from field and laboratory observations coupled with atmospheric model analyses shows that primary combustion emissions of organic compounds dynamically partition between the vapor and particulate phases, especially as near-source emissions dilute and cool to amb...

Along-strike variations of the partitioning of convergence across the Haiyuan fault system detected by InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daout, S.; Jolivet, R.; Lasserre, C.; Doin, M.-P.; Barbot, S.; Tapponnier, P.; Peltzer, G.; Socquet, A.; Sun, J.

2016-04-01

Oblique convergence across Tibet leads to slip partitioning with the coexistence of strike-slip, normal and thrust motion on major fault systems. A key point is to understand and model how faults interact and accumulate strain at depth. Here, we extract ground deformation across the Haiyuan Fault restraining bend, at the northeastern boundary of the Tibetan plateau, from Envisat radar data spanning the 2001-2011 period. We show that the complexity of the surface displacement field can be explained by the partitioning of a uniform deep-seated convergence. Mountains and sand dunes in the study area make the radar data processing challenging and require the latest developments in processing procedures for Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry. The processing strategy is based on a small baseline approach. Before unwrapping, we correct for atmospheric phase delays from global atmospheric models and digital elevation model errors. A series of filtering steps is applied to improve the signal-to-noise ratio across high ranges of the Tibetan plateau and the phase unwrapping capability across the fault, required for reliable estimate of fault movement. We then jointly invert our InSAR time-series together with published GPS displacements to test a proposed long-term slip-partitioning model between the Haiyuan and Gulang left-lateral Faults and the Qilian Shan thrusts. We explore the geometry of the fault system at depth and associated slip rates using a Bayesian approach and test the consistency of present-day geodetic surface displacements with a long-term tectonic model. We determine a uniform convergence rate of 10 [8.6-11.5] mm yr-1 with an N89 [81-97]°E across the whole fault system, with a variable partitioning west and east of a major extensional fault-jog (the Tianzhu pull-apart basin). Our 2-D model of two profiles perpendicular to the fault system gives a quantitative understanding of how crustal deformation is accommodated by the various branches of this thrust/strike-slip fault system and demonstrates how the geometry of the Haiyuan fault system controls the partitioning of the deep secular motion.

Bayesian generalized linear mixed modeling of Tuberculosis using informative priors

PubMed Central

Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa

2017-01-01

TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014. PMID:28257437

Multiple co-clustering based on nonparametric mixture models with heterogeneous marginal distributions

PubMed Central

Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Shimizu, Yu; Okada, Go; Takamura, Masahiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

2017-01-01

We propose a novel method for multiple clustering, which is useful for analysis of high-dimensional data containing heterogeneous types of features. Our method is based on nonparametric Bayesian mixture models in which features are automatically partitioned (into views) for each clustering solution. This feature partition works as feature selection for a particular clustering solution, which screens out irrelevant features. To make our method applicable to high-dimensional data, a co-clustering structure is newly introduced for each view. Further, the outstanding novelty of our method is that we simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block, which widens areas of application to real data. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data. PMID:29049392

UNCERTAINTY IN SOURCE PARTITIONING USING STABLE ISOTOPES

EPA Science Inventory

Stable isotope analyses are often used to quantify the contribution of multiple sources to a mixture, such as proportions of food sources in an animal's diet, C3 vs. C4 plant inputs to soil organic carbon, etc. Linear mixing models can be used to partition two sources with a sin...

Bayesian spatial prediction of the site index in the study of the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project

Treesearch

Xiaoqian Sun; Zhuoqiong He; John Kabrick

2008-01-01

This paper presents a Bayesian spatial method for analysing the site index data from the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP). Based on ecological background and availability, we select three variables, the aspect class, the soil depth and the land type association as covariates for analysis. To allow great flexibility of the smoothness of the random field,...

Univariate and bivariate likelihood-based meta-analysis methods performed comparably when marginal sensitivity and specificity were the targets of inference.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Lau, Joseph; Schmid, Christopher H

2017-03-01

To compare statistical methods for meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity of medical tests (e.g., diagnostic or screening tests). We constructed a database of PubMed-indexed meta-analyses of test performance from which 2 × 2 tables for each included study could be extracted. We reanalyzed the data using univariate and bivariate random effects models fit with inverse variance and maximum likelihood methods. Analyses were performed using both normal and binomial likelihoods to describe within-study variability. The bivariate model using the binomial likelihood was also fit using a fully Bayesian approach. We use two worked examples-thoracic computerized tomography to detect aortic injury and rapid prescreening of Papanicolaou smears to detect cytological abnormalities-to highlight that different meta-analysis approaches can produce different results. We also present results from reanalysis of 308 meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity. Models using the normal approximation produced sensitivity and specificity estimates closer to 50% and smaller standard errors compared to models using the binomial likelihood; absolute differences of 5% or greater were observed in 12% and 5% of meta-analyses for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Results from univariate and bivariate random effects models were similar, regardless of estimation method. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods produced almost identical summary estimates under the bivariate model; however, Bayesian analyses indicated greater uncertainty around those estimates. Bivariate models produced imprecise estimates of the between-study correlation of sensitivity and specificity. Differences between methods were larger with increasing proportion of studies that were small or required a continuity correction. The binomial likelihood should be used to model within-study variability. Univariate and bivariate models give similar estimates of the marginal distributions for sensitivity and specificity. Bayesian methods fully quantify uncertainty and their ability to incorporate external evidence may be useful for imprecisely estimated parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

Hierarchical structure of the Sicilian goats revealed by Bayesian analyses of microsatellite information.

PubMed

Siwek, M; Finocchiaro, R; Curik, I; Portolano, B

2011-02-01

Genetic structure and relationship amongst the main goat populations in Sicily (Girgentana, Derivata di Siria, Maltese and Messinese) were analysed using information from 19 microsatellite markers genotyped on 173 individuals. A posterior Bayesian approach implemented in the program STRUCTURE revealed a hierarchical structure with two clusters at the first level (Girgentana vs. Messinese, Derivata di Siria and Maltese), explaining 4.8% of variation (amovaФ(ST) estimate). Seven clusters nested within these first two clusters (further differentiations of Girgentana, Derivata di Siria and Maltese), explaining 8.5% of variation (amovaФ(SC) estimate). The analyses and methods applied in this study indicate their power to detect subtle population structure. © 2010 The Authors, Animal Genetics © 2010 Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.

The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

2014-01-01

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

Bayesian inference of a historical bottleneck in a heavily exploited marine mammal.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Grant, S M; Forcada, J; Phillips, C D

2011-10-01

Emerging Bayesian analytical approaches offer increasingly sophisticated means of reconstructing historical population dynamics from genetic data, but have been little applied to scenarios involving demographic bottlenecks. Consequently, we analysed a large mitochondrial and microsatellite dataset from the Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella, a species subjected to one of the most extreme examples of uncontrolled exploitation in history when it was reduced to the brink of extinction by the sealing industry during the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Classical bottleneck tests, which exploit the fact that rare alleles are rapidly lost during demographic reduction, yielded ambiguous results. In contrast, a strong signal of recent demographic decline was detected using both Bayesian skyline plots and Approximate Bayesian Computation, the latter also allowing derivation of posterior parameter estimates that were remarkably consistent with historical observations. This was achieved using only contemporary samples, further emphasizing the potential of Bayesian approaches to address important problems in conservation and evolutionary biology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Dynamically heterogenous partitions and phylogenetic inference: an evaluation of analytical strategies with cytochrome b and ND6 gene sequences in cranes.

PubMed

Krajewski, C; Fain, M G; Buckley, L; King, D G

1999-11-01

ki ctes over whether molecular sequence data should be partitioned for phylogenetic analysis often confound two types of heterogeneity among partitions. We distinguish historical heterogeneity (i.e., different partitions have different evolutionary relationships) from dynamic heterogeneity (i.e., different partitions show different patterns of sequence evolution) and explore the impact of the latter on phylogenetic accuracy and precision with a two-gene, mitochondrial data set for cranes. The well-established phylogeny of cranes allows us to contrast tree-based estimates of relevant parameter values with estimates based on pairwise comparisons and to ascertain the effects of incorporating different amounts of process information into phylogenetic estimates. We show that codon positions in the cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 6 genes are dynamically heterogenous under both Poisson and invariable-sites + gamma-rates versions of the F84 model and that heterogeneity includes variation in base composition and transition bias as well as substitution rate. Estimates of transition-bias and relative-rate parameters from pairwise sequence comparisons were comparable to those obtained as tree-based maximum likelihood estimates. Neither rate-category nor mixed-model partitioning strategies resulted in a loss of phylogenetic precision relative to unpartitioned analyses. We suggest that weighted-average distances provide a computationally feasible alternative to direct maximum likelihood estimates of phylogeny for mixed-model analyses of large, dynamically heterogenous data sets. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

An evaluation of Bayesian techniques for controlling model complexity and selecting inputs in a neural network for short-term load forecasting.

PubMed

Hippert, Henrique S; Taylor, James W

2010-04-01

Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate level of model complexity, and choosing the input variables. This paper evaluates techniques for automatic neural network modelling within a Bayesian framework, as applied to six samples containing daily load and weather data for four different countries. We analyse input selection as carried out by the Bayesian 'automatic relevance determination', and the usefulness of the Bayesian 'evidence' for the selection of the best structure (in terms of number of neurones), as compared to methods based on cross-validation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean surface partitioning strategies using ocean colour remote Sensing: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krug, Lilian Anne; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Barbosa, Ana B.

2017-06-01

The ocean surface is organized into regions with distinct properties reflecting the complexity of interactions between environmental forcing and biological responses. The delineation of these functional units, each with unique, homogeneous properties and underlying ecosystem structure and dynamics, can be defined as ocean surface partitioning. The main purposes and applications of ocean partitioning include the evaluation of particular marine environments; generation of more accurate satellite ocean colour products; assimilation of data into biogeochemical and climate models; and establishment of ecosystem-based management practices. This paper reviews the diverse approaches implemented for ocean surface partition into functional units, using ocean colour remote sensing (OCRS) data, including their purposes, criteria, methods and scales. OCRS offers a synoptic, high spatial-temporal resolution, multi-decadal coverage of bio-optical properties, relevant to the applications and value of ocean surface partitioning. In combination with other biotic and/or abiotic data, OCRS-derived data (e.g., chlorophyll-a, optical properties) provide a broad and varied source of information that can be analysed using different delineation methods derived from subjective, expert-based to unsupervised learning approaches (e.g., cluster, fuzzy and empirical orthogonal function analyses). Partition schemes are applied at global to mesoscale spatial coverage, with static (time-invariant) or dynamic (time-varying) representations. A case study, the highly heterogeneous area off SW Iberian Peninsula (NE Atlantic), illustrates how the selection of spatial coverage and temporal representation affects the discrimination of distinct environmental drivers of phytoplankton variability. Advances in operational oceanography and in the subject area of satellite ocean colour, including development of new sensors, algorithms and products, are among the potential benefits from extended use, scope and applications of ocean surface partitioning using OCRS.

Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

PubMed Central

Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

2016-01-01

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

PubMed

Dembo, Mana; Radovčić, Davorka; Garvin, Heather M; Laird, Myra F; Schroeder, Lauren; Scott, Jill E; Brophy, Juliet; Ackermann, Rebecca R; Musiba, Chares M; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

2016-08-01

Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population genetics of the westernmost distribution of the glaciations-surviving black truffle Tuber melanosporum.

PubMed

García-Cunchillos, Iván; Sánchez, Sergio; Barriuso, Juan José; Pérez-Collazos, Ernesto

2014-04-01

The black truffle (Tuber melanosporum Vittad.) is an important natural resource due to its relevance as a delicacy in gastronomy. Different aspects of this hypogeous fungus species have been studied, including population genetics of French and Italian distribution ranges. Although those studies include some Spanish populations, this is the first time that the genetic diversity and genetic structure of the wide geographical range of the natural Spanish populations have been analysed. To achieve this goal, 23 natural populations were sampled across the Spanish geographical distribution. ISSR technique demonstrated its reliability and capability to detect high levels of polymorphism in the species. Studied populations showed high levels of genetic diversity (h N  = 0.393, h S  = 0.678, Hs = 0.418), indicating a non threatened genetic conservation status. These high levels may be a consequence of the wide distribution range of the species, of its spore dispersion by animals, and by its evolutionary history. AMOVA analysis showed a high degree of genetic structure among populations (47.89%) and other partitions as geographical ranges. Bayesian genetic structure analyses differentiated two main Spanish groups separated by the Iberian Mountain System, and showed the genetic uniqueness of some populations. Our results suggest the survival of some of these populations during the last glaciation, the Spanish southern distribution range perhaps surviving as had occurred in France and Italy, but it is also likely that specific northern areas may have acted as a refugia for the later dispersion to other calcareous areas in the Iberian Peninsula and probably France.

Does better taxon sampling help? A new phylogenetic hypothesis for Sepsidae (Diptera: Cyclorrhapha) based on 50 new taxa and the same old mitochondrial and nuclear markers.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Annie, Ang Shi Hui; Amrita, Srivathsan; Yi, Su Kathy Feng; Rudolf, Meier

2013-10-01

We here present a phylogenetic hypothesis for Sepsidae (Diptera: Cyclorrhapha), a group of schizophoran flies with ca. 320 described species that is widely used in sexual selection research. The hypothesis is based on five nuclear and five mitochondrial markers totaling 8813 bp for ca. 30% of the diversity (105 sepsid taxa) and - depending on analysis - six or nine outgroup species. Maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayesian inferences (BI) yield overall congruent, well-resolved, and supported trees that are largely unaffected by three different ways to partition the data in BI and ML analyses. However, there are also five areas of uncertainty that affect suprageneric relationships where different analyses yield alternate topologies and MP and ML trees have significant conflict according to Shimodaira-Hasegawa tests. Two of these were already affected by conflict in a previous analysis that was based on the same genes and a subset of 69 species. The remaining three involve newly added taxa or genera whose relationships were previously resolved with low support. We thus find that the denser taxon sample in the present analysis does not reduce the topological conflict that had been identified previously. The present study nevertheless presents a significant contribution to the understanding of sepsid relationships in that 50 additional taxa from 18 genera are added to the Tree-of-Life of Sepsidae and that the placement of most taxa is well supported and robust to different tree reconstruction techniques. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

PAH sorption mechanism and partitioning behavior in lampblack-impacted soils from former oil-gas plant sites.

PubMed

Hong, Lei; Ghosh, Upal; Mahajan, Tania; Zare, Richard N; Luthy, Richard G

2003-08-15

This study assessed polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) association and aqueous partitioning in lampblack-impacted field soils from five sites in California that formerly housed oil-gas process operations. Lampblack is the solid residue resulting from the decomposition of crude oil at high temperatures in the gas-making operation and is coated or impregnated with oil gasification byproducts, among which PAHs are the compounds of the greatest regulatory concern. A suite of complementary measurements investigated the character of lampblack particles and PAH location and the associated effects on PAH partitioning between lampblack and water. PAH analyses on both whole samples and density-separated components demonstrated that 81-100% of PAHs in the lampblack-impacted soils was associated with lampblack particles. FTIR, 13C NMR, and SEM analyses showed that oil-gas lampblack solids comprise primarily aromatic carbon with soot-like structures. A free-phase aromatic oil may be present in some of the lampblack soils containing high PAH concentrations. Comparable long-term aqueous partitioning measurements were obtained with an air-bridge technique and with a centrifugation/alum flocculation procedure. Large solid/water partition coefficient (Kd) values were observed in samples exhibiting lower PAH and oil levels, whereas smaller Kd values were measured in lampblack samples containing high PAH levels. The former result is in agreement with an oil-soot partitioning model, and the latter is in agreement with a coal tar-water partitioning model. Lampblack containing high PAH levels appears to exhaust the sorption capacity of the soot-carbon, creating a free aromatic oil phase that exhibits partitioning behavior similar to PAHs in coal tar. This study improves mechanistic understanding of PAH sorption on aged lampblack residuals at former oil-gas sites and provides a framework for mechanistic assessment of PAH leaching potential and risk from such site materials.

Partitioning error components for accuracy-assessment of near-neighbor methods of imputation

Treesearch

Albert R. Stage; Nicholas L. Crookston

2007-01-01

Imputation is applied for two quite different purposes: to supply missing data to complete a data set for subsequent modeling analyses or to estimate subpopulation totals. Error properties of the imputed values have different effects in these two contexts. We partition errors of imputation derived from similar observation units as arising from three sources:...

Phylogenetic Analyses: A Toolbox Expanding towards Bayesian Methods

PubMed Central

Aris-Brosou, Stéphane; Xia, Xuhua

2008-01-01

The reconstruction of phylogenies is becoming an increasingly simple activity. This is mainly due to two reasons: the democratization of computing power and the increased availability of sophisticated yet user-friendly software. This review describes some of the latest additions to the phylogenetic toolbox, along with some of their theoretical and practical limitations. It is shown that Bayesian methods are under heavy development, as they offer the possibility to solve a number of long-standing issues and to integrate several steps of the phylogenetic analyses into a single framework. Specific topics include not only phylogenetic reconstruction, but also the comparison of phylogenies, the detection of adaptive evolution, and the estimation of divergence times between species. PMID:18483574

Bayesian sensitivity analysis methods to evaluate bias due to misclassification and missing data using informative priors and external validation data.

PubMed

Luta, George; Ford, Melissa B; Bondy, Melissa; Shields, Peter G; Stamey, James D

2013-04-01

Recent research suggests that the Bayesian paradigm may be useful for modeling biases in epidemiological studies, such as those due to misclassification and missing data. We used Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to the potential effect of these two important sources of bias. We used data from a study of the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer among breast cancer survivors. We used Bayesian methods to provide an operational way to combine both validation data and expert opinion to account for misclassification of the two risk factors and missing data. For comparative purposes we considered a "full model" that allowed for both misclassification and missing data, along with alternative models that considered only misclassification or missing data, and the naïve model that ignored both sources of bias. We identified noticeable differences between the four models with respect to the posterior distributions of the odds ratios that described the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer. Despite those differences we found that the general conclusions regarding the pattern of associations were the same regardless of the model used. Overall our results indicate a nonsignificantly decreased lung cancer risk due to radiotherapy among nonsmokers, and a mildly increased risk among smokers. We described easy to implement Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to misclassification and missing data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classification of Maize and Weeds by Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapron, Michel; Oprea, Alina; Sultana, Bogdan; Assemat, Louis

2007-11-01

Precision Agriculture is concerned with all sorts of within-field variability, spatially and temporally, that reduces the efficacy of agronomic practices applied in a uniform way all over the field. Because of these sources of heterogeneity, uniform management actions strongly reduce the efficiency of the resource input to the crop (i.e. fertilization, water) or for the agrochemicals use for pest control (i.e. herbicide). Moreover, this low efficacy means high environmental cost (pollution) and reduced economic return for the farmer. Weed plants are one of these sources of variability for the crop, as they occur in patches in the field. Detecting the location, size and internal density of these patches, along with identification of main weed species involved, open the way to a site-specific weed control strategy, where only patches of weeds would receive the appropriate herbicide (type and dose). Herein, an automatic recognition method of vegetal species is described. First, the pixels of soil and vegetation are classified in two classes, then the vegetation part of the input image is segmented from the distance image by using the watershed method and finally the leaves of the vegetation are partitioned in two parts maize and weeds thanks to the two Bayesian networks.

A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition of performance in Approach–Avoidance Tasks

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-01-01

Common methods for analysing response time (RT) tasks, frequently used across different disciplines of psychology, suffer from a number of limitations such as the failure to directly measure the underlying latent processes of interest and the inability to take into account the uncertainty associated with each individual's point estimate of performance. Here, we discuss a Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model and apply it to RT data. This model allows researchers to decompose performance into meaningful psychological processes and to account optimally for individual differences and commonalities, even with relatively sparse data. We highlight the advantages of the Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition by applying it to performance on Approach–Avoidance Tasks, widely used in the emotion and psychopathology literature. Model fits for two experimental data-sets demonstrate that the model performs well. The Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model overcomes important limitations of current analysis procedures and provides deeper insight in latent psychological processes of interest. PMID:25491372

Bayesian B-spline mapping for dynamic quantitative traits.

PubMed

Xing, Jun; Li, Jiahan; Yang, Runqing; Zhou, Xiaojing; Xu, Shizhong

2012-04-01

Owing to their ability and flexibility to describe individual gene expression at different time points, random regression (RR) analyses have become a popular procedure for the genetic analysis of dynamic traits whose phenotypes are collected over time. Specifically, when modelling the dynamic patterns of gene expressions in the RR framework, B-splines have been proved successful as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials. In the so-called Bayesian B-spline quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, B-splines are used to characterize the patterns of QTL effects and individual-specific time-dependent environmental errors over time, and the Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to estimate model parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate that (1) in terms of statistical power, Bayesian B-spline mapping outperforms the interval mapping based on the maximum likelihood; (2) for the simulated dataset with complicated growth curve simulated by B-splines, Legendre polynomial-based Bayesian mapping is not capable of identifying the designed QTLs accurately, even when higher-order Legendre polynomials are considered and (3) for the simulated dataset using Legendre polynomials, the Bayesian B-spline mapping can find the same QTLs as those identified by Legendre polynomial analysis. All simulation results support the necessity and flexibility of B-spline in Bayesian mapping of dynamic traits. The proposed method is also applied to a real dataset, where QTLs controlling the growth trajectory of stem diameters in Populus are located.

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob

2009-01-01

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.

Stochasticity of convection in Giga-LES data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Chevrotière, Michèle; Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J.

2016-09-01

The poor representation of tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs) is believed to be responsible for much of the uncertainty in the predictions of weather and climate in the tropics. The stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) was recently developed by Khouider et al. (Commun Math Sci 8(1):187-216, 2010) to represent the missing variability in GCMs due to unresolved features of organized tropical convection. The SMCM is based on three cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform), and transitions between these cloud types are formalized in terms of probability rules that are functions of the large-scale environment convective state and a set of seven arbitrary cloud timescale parameters. Here, a statistical inference method based on the Bayesian paradigm is applied to estimate these key cloud timescales from the Giga-LES dataset, a 24-h large-eddy simulation (LES) of deep tropical convection (Khairoutdinov et al. in J Adv Model Earth Syst 1(12), 2009) over a domain comparable to a GCM gridbox. A sequential learning strategy is used where the Giga-LES domain is partitioned into a few subdomains, and atmospheric time series obtained on each subdomain are used to train the Bayesian procedure incrementally. Convergence of the marginal posterior densities for all seven parameters is demonstrated for two different grid partitions, and sensitivity tests to other model parameters are also presented. A single column model simulation using the SMCM parameterization with the Giga-LES inferred parameters reproduces many important statistical features of the Giga-LES run, without any further tuning. In particular it exhibits intermittent dynamical behavior in both the stochastic cloud fractions and the large scale dynamics, with periods of dry phases followed by a coherent sequence of congestus, deep, and stratiform convection, varying on timescales of a few hours consistent with the Giga-LES time series. The chaotic variations of the cloud area fractions were captured fairly well both qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrating the stochastic nature of convection in the Giga-LES simulation.

A Bayesian Framework for Coupled Estimation of Key Unknown Parameters of Land Water and Energy Balance Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhadi, L.; Abdolghafoorian, A.

2015-12-01

The land surface is a key component of climate system. It controls the partitioning of available energy at the surface between sensible and latent heat, and partitioning of available water between evaporation and runoff. Water and energy cycle are intrinsically coupled through evaporation, which represents a heat exchange as latent heat flux. Accurate estimation of fluxes of heat and moisture are of significant importance in many fields such as hydrology, climatology and meteorology. In this study we develop and apply a Bayesian framework for estimating the key unknown parameters of terrestrial water and energy balance equations (i.e. moisture and heat diffusion) and their uncertainty in land surface models. These equations are coupled through flux of evaporation. The estimation system is based on the adjoint method for solving a least-squares optimization problem. The cost function consists of aggregated errors on state (i.e. moisture and temperature) with respect to observation and parameters estimation with respect to prior values over the entire assimilation period. This cost function is minimized with respect to parameters to identify models of sensible heat, latent heat/evaporation and drainage and runoff. Inverse of Hessian of the cost function is an approximation of the posterior uncertainty of parameter estimates. Uncertainty of estimated fluxes is estimated by propagating the uncertainty for linear and nonlinear function of key parameters through the method of First Order Second Moment (FOSM). Uncertainty analysis is used in this method to guide the formulation of a well-posed estimation problem. Accuracy of the method is assessed at point scale using surface energy and water fluxes generated by the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model at the selected AmeriFlux stations. This method can be applied to diverse climates and land surface conditions with different spatial scales, using remotely sensed measurements of surface moisture and temperature states

BEASTling: A software tool for linguistic phylogenetics using BEAST 2

PubMed Central

Forkel, Robert; Kaiping, Gereon A.; Atkinson, Quentin D.

2017-01-01

We present a new open source software tool called BEASTling, designed to simplify the preparation of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of linguistic data using the BEAST 2 platform. BEASTling transforms comparatively short and human-readable configuration files into the XML files used by BEAST to specify analyses. By taking advantage of Creative Commons-licensed data from the Glottolog language catalog, BEASTling allows the user to conveniently filter datasets using names for recognised language families, to impose monophyly constraints so that inferred language trees are backward compatible with Glottolog classifications, or to assign geographic location data to languages for phylogeographic analyses. Support for the emerging cross-linguistic linked data format (CLDF) permits easy incorporation of data published in cross-linguistic linked databases into analyses. BEASTling is intended to make the power of Bayesian analysis more accessible to historical linguists without strong programming backgrounds, in the hopes of encouraging communication and collaboration between those developing computational models of language evolution (who are typically not linguists) and relevant domain experts. PMID:28796784

BEASTling: A software tool for linguistic phylogenetics using BEAST 2.

PubMed

Maurits, Luke; Forkel, Robert; Kaiping, Gereon A; Atkinson, Quentin D

2017-01-01

We present a new open source software tool called BEASTling, designed to simplify the preparation of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of linguistic data using the BEAST 2 platform. BEASTling transforms comparatively short and human-readable configuration files into the XML files used by BEAST to specify analyses. By taking advantage of Creative Commons-licensed data from the Glottolog language catalog, BEASTling allows the user to conveniently filter datasets using names for recognised language families, to impose monophyly constraints so that inferred language trees are backward compatible with Glottolog classifications, or to assign geographic location data to languages for phylogeographic analyses. Support for the emerging cross-linguistic linked data format (CLDF) permits easy incorporation of data published in cross-linguistic linked databases into analyses. BEASTling is intended to make the power of Bayesian analysis more accessible to historical linguists without strong programming backgrounds, in the hopes of encouraging communication and collaboration between those developing computational models of language evolution (who are typically not linguists) and relevant domain experts.

Phylogenetic relationships of South American lizards of the genus Stenocercus (Squamata: Iguania): A new approach using a general mixture model for gene sequence data.

PubMed

Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Schulte, James A; Cadle, John E

2006-04-01

The South American iguanian lizard genus Stenocercus includes 54 species occurring mostly in the Andes and adjacent lowland areas from northern Venezuela and Colombia to central Argentina at elevations of 0-4000m. Small taxon or character sampling has characterized all phylogenetic analyses of Stenocercus, which has long been recognized as sister taxon to the Tropidurus Group. In this study, we use mtDNA sequence data to perform phylogenetic analyses that include 32 species of Stenocercus and 12 outgroup taxa. Monophyly of this genus is strongly supported by maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Evolutionary relationships within Stenocercus are further analyzed with a Bayesian implementation of a general mixture model, which accommodates variability in the pattern of evolution across sites. These analyses indicate a basal split of Stenocercus into two clades, one of which receives very strong statistical support. In addition, we test previous hypotheses using non-parametric and parametric statistical methods, and provide a phylogenetic classification for Stenocercus.

Intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned Bonferroni means and their application to multiple attribute decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhengmin; Liu, Peide

2017-04-01

The Bonferroni mean (BM) was originally introduced by Bonferroni and generalised by many other researchers due to its capacity to capture the interrelationship between input arguments. Nevertheless, in many situations, interrelationships do not always exist between all of the attributes. Attributes can be partitioned into several different categories and members of intra-partition are interrelated while no interrelationship exists between attributes of different partitions. In this paper, as complements to the existing generalisations of BM, we investigate the partitioned Bonferroni mean (PBM) under intuitionistic uncertain linguistic environments and develop two linguistic aggregation operators: intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned Bonferroni mean (IULPBM) and its weighted form (WIULPBM). Then, motivated by the ideal of geometric mean and PBM, we further present the partitioned geometric Bonferroni mean (PGBM) and develop two linguistic geometric aggregation operators: intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned geometric Bonferroni mean (IULPGBM) and its weighted form (WIULPGBM). Some properties and special cases of these proposed operators are also investigated and discussed in detail. Based on these operators, an approach for multiple attribute decision-making problems with intuitionistic uncertain linguistic information is developed. Finally, a practical example is presented to illustrate the developed approach and comparison analyses are conducted with other representative methods to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed approach.

A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method’s graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication. PMID:22849390

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

BAYESIAN LARGE-SCALE MULTIPLE REGRESSION WITH SUMMARY STATISTICS FROM GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDIES1

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xiang; Stephens, Matthew

2017-01-01

Bayesian methods for large-scale multiple regression provide attractive approaches to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). For example, they can estimate heritability of complex traits, allowing for both polygenic and sparse models; and by incorporating external genomic data into the priors, they can increase power and yield new biological insights. However, these methods require access to individual genotypes and phenotypes, which are often not easily available. Here we provide a framework for performing these analyses without individual-level data. Specifically, we introduce a “Regression with Summary Statistics” (RSS) likelihood, which relates the multiple regression coefficients to univariate regression results that are often easily available. The RSS likelihood requires estimates of correlations among covariates (SNPs), which also can be obtained from public databases. We perform Bayesian multiple regression analysis by combining the RSS likelihood with previously proposed prior distributions, sampling posteriors by Markov chain Monte Carlo. In a wide range of simulations RSS performs similarly to analyses using the individual data, both for estimating heritability and detecting associations. We apply RSS to a GWAS of human height that contains 253,288 individuals typed at 1.06 million SNPs, for which analyses of individual-level data are practically impossible. Estimates of heritability (52%) are consistent with, but more precise, than previous results using subsets of these data. We also identify many previously unreported loci that show evidence for association with height in our analyses. Software is available at https://github.com/stephenslab/rss. PMID:29399241

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernoded, Andrey; Dudko, Lev; Myagkov, Igor; Volkov, Petr

2017-10-01

Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

A Bayesian Approach to the Overlap Analysis of Epidemiologically Linked Traits.

PubMed

Asimit, Jennifer L; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Wheeler, Eleanor; Berndt, Sonja I; Cordell, Heather J; Morris, Andrew P; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Barroso, Inês

2015-12-01

Diseases often cooccur in individuals more often than expected by chance, and may be explained by shared underlying genetic etiology. A common approach to genetic overlap analyses is to use summary genome-wide association study data to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with multiple traits at a selected P-value threshold. However, P-values do not account for differences in power, whereas Bayes' factors (BFs) do, and may be approximated using summary statistics. We use simulation studies to compare the power of frequentist and Bayesian approaches with overlap analyses, and to decide on appropriate thresholds for comparison between the two methods. It is empirically illustrated that BFs have the advantage over P-values of a decreasing type I error rate as study size increases for single-disease associations. Consequently, the overlap analysis of traits from different-sized studies encounters issues in fair P-value threshold selection, whereas BFs are adjusted automatically. Extensive simulations show that Bayesian overlap analyses tend to have higher power than those that assess association strength with P-values, particularly in low-power scenarios. Calibration tables between BFs and P-values are provided for a range of sample sizes, as well as an approximation approach for sample sizes that are not in the calibration table. Although P-values are sometimes thought more intuitive, these tables assist in removing the opaqueness of Bayesian thresholds and may also be used in the selection of a BF threshold to meet a certain type I error rate. An application of our methods is used to identify variants associated with both obesity and osteoarthritis. © 2015 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A comment on priors for Bayesian occupancy models.

PubMed

Northrup, Joseph M; Gerber, Brian D

2018-01-01

Understanding patterns of species occurrence and the processes underlying these patterns is fundamental to the study of ecology. One of the more commonly used approaches to investigate species occurrence patterns is occupancy modeling, which can account for imperfect detection of a species during surveys. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of Bayesian modeling in ecology, which includes fitting Bayesian occupancy models. The Bayesian framework is appealing to ecologists for many reasons, including the ability to incorporate prior information through the specification of prior distributions on parameters. While ecologists almost exclusively intend to choose priors so that they are "uninformative" or "vague", such priors can easily be unintentionally highly informative. Here we report on how the specification of a "vague" normally distributed (i.e., Gaussian) prior on coefficients in Bayesian occupancy models can unintentionally influence parameter estimation. Using both simulated data and empirical examples, we illustrate how this issue likely compromises inference about species-habitat relationships. While the extent to which these informative priors influence inference depends on the data set, researchers fitting Bayesian occupancy models should conduct sensitivity analyses to ensure intended inference, or employ less commonly used priors that are less informative (e.g., logistic or t prior distributions). We provide suggestions for addressing this issue in occupancy studies, and an online tool for exploring this issue under different contexts.

Effect of Sulfur on Siderophile Element Partitioning Between Olivine and Martian Primary Melt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usui, T.; Shearer, C. K.; Righter, K.; Jones, J. H.

2011-01-01

Since olivine is a common early crystallizing phase in basaltic magmas that have produced planetary and asteroidal crusts, a number of experimental studies have investigated elemental partitioning between olivine and silicate melt [e.g., 1, 2, 3]. In particular, olivine/melt partition coefficients of Ni and Co (DNi and DCo) have been intensively studied because these elements are preferentially partitioned into olivine and thus provide a uniquely useful insight into the basalt petrogenesis [e.g., 4, 5]. However, none of these experimental studies are consistent with incompatible signatures of Co [e.g., 6, 7, 8] and Ni [7] in olivines from Martian meteorites. Chemical analyses of undegassed MORB samples suggest that S dissolved in silicate melts can reduce DNi up to 50 % compared to S-free experimental systems [9]. High S solubility (up to 4000 ppm) for primitive shergottite melts [10] implies that S might have significantly influenced the Ni and Co partitioning into shergottite olivines. This study conducts melting experiments on Martian magmatic conditions to investigate the effect of S on the partitioning of siderophile elements between olivine and Martian primary melt.

Making Sense of a Negative Clinical Trial Result: A Bayesian Analysis of a Clinical Trial of Lorazepam and Diazepam for Pediatric Status Epilepticus.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Daniel B; Chamberlain, James M

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the application of a Bayesian approach to a recent negative clinical trial result. A Bayesian analysis of such a trial can provide a more useful interpretation of results and can incorporate previous evidence. This was a secondary analysis of the efficacy and safety results of the Pediatric Seizure Study, a randomized clinical trial of lorazepam versus diazepam for pediatric status epilepticus. We included the published results from the only prospective pediatric study of status in a Bayesian hierarchic model, and we performed sensitivity analyses on the amount of pooling between studies. We evaluated 3 summary analyses for the results: superiority, noninferiority (margin <-10%), and practical equivalence (within ±10%). Consistent with the original study's classic analysis of study results, we did not demonstrate superiority of lorazepam over diazepam. There is a 95% probability that the true efficacy of lorazepam is in the range of 66% to 80%. For both the efficacy and safety outcomes, there was greater than 95% probability that lorazepam is noninferior to diazepam, and there was greater than 90% probability that the 2 medications are practically equivalent. The results were largely driven by the current study because of the sample sizes of our study (n=273) and the previous pediatric study (n=61). Because Bayesian analysis estimates the probability of one or more hypotheses, such an approach can provide more useful information about the meaning of the results of a negative trial outcome. In the case of pediatric status epilepticus, it is highly likely that lorazepam is noninferior and practically equivalent to diazepam. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for patient-centered outcomes research.

PubMed

Henderson, Nicholas C; Louis, Thomas A; Wang, Chenguang; Varadhan, Ravi

2016-01-01

Evaluation of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is an essential aspect of personalized medicine and patient-centered outcomes research. Our goal in this article is to promote the use of Bayesian methods for subgroup analysis and to lower the barriers to their implementation by describing the ways in which the companion software beanz can facilitate these types of analyses. To advance this goal, we describe several key Bayesian models for investigating HTE and outline the ways in which they are well-suited to address many of the commonly cited challenges in the study of HTE. Topics highlighted include shrinkage estimation, model choice, sensitivity analysis, and posterior predictive checking. A case study is presented in which we demonstrate the use of the methods discussed.

Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Markov chains: application to mental health data.

PubMed

Sung, Minje; Soyer, Refik; Nhan, Nguyen

2007-07-10

In this paper we present a formal treatment of non-homogeneous Markov chains by introducing a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Our work is motivated by the analysis of correlated categorical data which arise in assessment of psychiatric treatment programs. In our development, we introduce a Markovian structure to describe the non-homogeneity of transition patterns. In doing so, we introduce a logistic regression set-up for Markov chains and incorporate covariates in our model. We present a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and develop inference procedures to address issues encountered in the analyses of data from psychiatric treatment programs. Our model and inference procedures are implemented to some real data from a psychiatric treatment study. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayes in biological anthropology.

PubMed

Konigsberg, Lyle W; Frankenberg, Susan R

2013-12-01

In this article, we both contend and illustrate that biological anthropologists, particularly in the Americas, often think like Bayesians but act like frequentists when it comes to analyzing a wide variety of data. In other words, while our research goals and perspectives are rooted in probabilistic thinking and rest on prior knowledge, we often proceed to use statistical hypothesis tests and confidence interval methods unrelated (or tenuously related) to the research questions of interest. We advocate for applying Bayesian analyses to a number of different bioanthropological questions, especially since many of the programming and computational challenges to doing so have been overcome in the past two decades. To facilitate such applications, this article explains Bayesian principles and concepts, and provides concrete examples of Bayesian computer simulations and statistics that address questions relevant to biological anthropology, focusing particularly on bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology. It also simultaneously reviews the use of Bayesian methods and inference within the discipline to date. This article is intended to act as primer to Bayesian methods and inference in biological anthropology, explaining the relationships of various methods to likelihoods or probabilities and to classical statistical models. Our contention is not that traditional frequentist statistics should be rejected outright, but that there are many situations where biological anthropology is better served by taking a Bayesian approach. To this end it is hoped that the examples provided in this article will assist researchers in choosing from among the broad array of statistical methods currently available. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, J. Christine; Petty, Grant W.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Tmax Determined Using a Bayesian Estimation Deconvolution Algorithm Applied to Bolus Tracking Perfusion Imaging: A Digital Phantom Validation Study.

PubMed

Uwano, Ikuko; Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Boutelier, Timothé; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Mori, Futoshi; Yamashita, Fumio

2017-01-10

The Bayesian estimation algorithm improves the precision of bolus tracking perfusion imaging. However, this algorithm cannot directly calculate Tmax, the time scale widely used to identify ischemic penumbra, because Tmax is a non-physiological, artificial index that reflects the tracer arrival delay (TD) and other parameters. We calculated Tmax from the TD and mean transit time (MTT) obtained by the Bayesian algorithm and determined its accuracy in comparison with Tmax obtained by singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithms. The TD and MTT maps were generated by the Bayesian algorithm applied to digital phantoms with time-concentration curves that reflected a range of values for various perfusion metrics using a global arterial input function. Tmax was calculated from the TD and MTT using constants obtained by a linear least-squares fit to Tmax obtained from the two SVD algorithms that showed the best benchmarks in a previous study. Correlations between the Tmax values obtained by the Bayesian and SVD methods were examined. The Bayesian algorithm yielded accurate TD and MTT values relative to the true values of the digital phantom. Tmax calculated from the TD and MTT values with the least-squares fit constants showed excellent correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.99) and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) with Tmax obtained from SVD algorithms. Quantitative analyses of Tmax values calculated from Bayesian-estimation algorithm-derived TD and MTT from a digital phantom correlated and agreed well with Tmax values determined using SVD algorithms.

Additional support for Afrotheria and Paenungulata, the performance of mitochondrial versus nuclear genes, and the impact of data partitions with heterogeneous base composition.

PubMed

Springer, M S; Amrine, H M; Burk, A; Stanhope, M J

1999-03-01

We concatenated sequences for four mitochondrial genes (12S rRNA, tRNA valine, 16S rRNA, cytochrome b) and four nuclear genes [aquaporin, alpha 2B adrenergic receptor (A2AB), interphotoreceptor retinoid-binding protein (IRBP), von Willebrand factor (vWF)] into a multigene data set representing 11 eutherian orders (Artiodactyla, Hyracoidea, Insectivora, Lagomorpha, Macroscelidea, Perissodactyla, Primates, Proboscidea, Rodentia, Sirenia, Tubulidentata). Within this data set, we recognized nine mitochondrial partitions (both stems and loops, for each of 12S rRNA, tRNA valine, and 16S rRNA; and first, second, and third codon positions of cytochrome b) and 12 nuclear partitions (first, second, and third codon positions, respectively, of each of the four nuclear genes). Four of the 21 partitions (third positions of cytochrome b, A2AB, IRBP, and vWF) showed significant heterogeneity in base composition across taxa. Phylogenetic analyses (parsimony, minimum evolution, maximum likelihood) based on sequences for all 21 partitions provide 99-100% bootstrap support for Afrotheria and Paenungulata. With the elimination of the four partitions exhibiting heterogeneity in base composition, there is also high bootstrap support (89-100%) for cow + horse. Statistical tests reject Altungulata, Anagalida, and Ungulata. Data set heterogeneity between mitochondrial and nuclear genes is most evident when all partitions are included in the phylogenetic analyses. Mitochondrial-gene trees associate cow with horse, whereas nuclear-gene trees associate cow with hedgehog and these two with horse. However, after eliminating third positions of A2AB, IRBP, and vWF, nuclear data agree with mitochondrial data in supporting cow + horse. Nuclear genes provide stronger support for both Afrotheria and Paenungulata. Removal of third positions of cytochrome b results in improved performance for the mitochondrial genes in recovering these clades.

Genetic and metabolite diversity of Sardinian populations of Helichrysum italicum.

PubMed

Melito, Sara; Sias, Angela; Petretto, Giacomo L; Chessa, Mario; Pintore, Giorgio; Porceddu, Andrea

2013-01-01

Helichrysum italicum (Asteraceae) is a small shrub endemic to the Mediterranean Basin, growing in fragmented and diverse habitats. The species has attracted attention due to its secondary metabolite content, but little effort has as yet been dedicated to assessing the genetic and metabolite diversity present in these populations. Here, we describe the diversity of 50 H. italicum populations collected from a range of habitats in Sardinia. H. italicum plants were AFLP fingerprinted and the composition of their leaf essential oil characterized by GC-MS. The relationships between the genetic structure of the populations, soil, habitat and climatic variables and the essential oil chemotypes present were evaluated using Bayesian clustering, contingency analyses and AMOVA. The Sardinian germplasm could be partitioned into two AFLP-based clades. Populations collected from the southwestern region constituted a homogeneous group which remained virtually intact even at high levels of K. The second, much larger clade was more diverse. A positive correlation between genetic diversity and elevation suggested the action of natural purifying selection. Four main classes of compounds were identified among the essential oils, namely monoterpenes, oxygenated monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and oxygenated sesquiterpenes. Oxygenated monoterpene levels were significantly correlated with the AFLP-based clade structure, suggesting a correspondence between gene pool and chemical diversity. The results suggest an association between chemotype, genetic diversity and collection location which is relevant for the planning of future collections aimed at identifying valuable sources of essential oil.

Plastome phylogeny and early diversification of Brassicaceae.

PubMed

Guo, Xinyi; Liu, Jianquan; Hao, Guoqian; Zhang, Lei; Mao, Kangshan; Wang, Xiaojuan; Zhang, Dan; Ma, Tao; Hu, Quanjun; Al-Shehbaz, Ihsan A; Koch, Marcus A

2017-02-16

The family Brassicaceae encompasses diverse species, many of which have high scientific and economic importance. Early diversifications and phylogenetic relationships between major lineages or clades remain unclear. Here we re-investigate Brassicaceae phylogeny with complete plastomes from 51 species representing all four lineages or 5 of 6 major clades (A, B, C, E and F) as identified in earlier studies. Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses using a partitioned supermatrix of 77 protein coding genes resulted in nearly identical tree topologies exemplified by highly supported relationships between clades. All four lineages were well identified and interrelationships between them were resolved. The previously defined Clade C was found to be paraphyletic (the genus Megadenia formed a separate lineage), while the remaining clades were monophyletic. Clade E (lineage III) was sister to clades B + C rather than to all core Brassicaceae (clades A + B + C or lineages I + II), as suggested by a previous transcriptome study. Molecular dating based on plastome phylogeny supported the origin of major lineages or clades between late Oligocene and early Miocene, and the following radiative diversification across the family took place within a short timescale. In addition, gene losses in the plastomes occurred multiple times during the evolutionary diversification of the family. Plastome phylogeny illustrates the early diversification of cruciferous species. This phylogeny will facilitate our further understanding of evolution and adaptation of numerous species in the model family Brassicaceae.

Identifying food deserts and swamps based on relative healthy food access: a spatio-temporal Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew

2015-12-30

Obesity and other adverse health outcomes are influenced by individual- and neighbourhood-scale risk factors, including the food environment. At the small-area scale, past research has analysed spatial patterns of food environments for one time period, overlooking how food environments change over time. Further, past research has infrequently analysed relative healthy food access (RHFA), a measure that is more representative of food purchasing and consumption behaviours than absolute outlet density. This research applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of RHFA in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, from 2011 to 2014 at the small-area level. RHFA is calculated as the proportion of healthy food outlets (healthy outlets/healthy + unhealthy outlets) within 4-km from each small-area. This model measures spatial autocorrelation of RHFA, temporal trend of RHFA for the study region, and spatio-temporal trends of RHFA for small-areas. For the study region, a significant decreasing trend in RHFA is observed (-0.024), suggesting that food swamps have become more prevalent during the study period. For small-areas, significant decreasing temporal trends in RHFA were observed for all small-areas. Specific small-areas located in south Waterloo, north Kitchener, and southeast Cambridge exhibited the steepest decreasing spatio-temporal trends and are classified as spatio-temporal food swamps. This research demonstrates a Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach to analyse RHFA at the small-area scale. Results suggest that food swamps are more prevalent than food deserts in the Region of Waterloo. Analysing spatio-temporal trends of RHFA improves understanding of local food environment, highlighting specific small-areas where policies should be targeted to increase RHFA and reduce risk factors of adverse health outcomes such as obesity.

A Bayesian approach to estimating variance components within a multivariate generalizability theory framework.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhehan; Skorupski, William

2017-12-12

In many behavioral research areas, multivariate generalizability theory (mG theory) has been typically used to investigate the reliability of certain multidimensional assessments. However, traditional mG-theory estimation-namely, using frequentist approaches-has limits, leading researchers to fail to take full advantage of the information that mG theory can offer regarding the reliability of measurements. Alternatively, Bayesian methods provide more information than frequentist approaches can offer. This article presents instructional guidelines on how to implement mG-theory analyses in a Bayesian framework; in particular, BUGS code is presented to fit commonly seen designs from mG theory, including single-facet designs, two-facet crossed designs, and two-facet nested designs. In addition to concrete examples that are closely related to the selected designs and the corresponding BUGS code, a simulated dataset is provided to demonstrate the utility and advantages of the Bayesian approach. This article is intended to serve as a tutorial reference for applied researchers and methodologists conducting mG-theory studies.

Bayesian generalized least squares regression with application to log Pearson type 3 regional skew estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, D. S.; Stedinger, J. R.; Martins, E. S.

2005-10-01

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analysis of a generalized least squares (GLS) regression model for regional analyses of hydrologic data. The new approach allows computation of the posterior distributions of the parameters and the model error variance using a quasi-analytic approach. Two regional skew estimation studies illustrate the value of the Bayesian GLS approach for regional statistical analysis of a shape parameter and demonstrate that regional skew models can be relatively precise with effective record lengths in excess of 60 years. With Bayesian GLS the marginal posterior distribution of the model error variance and the corresponding mean and variance of the parameters can be computed directly, thereby providing a simple but important extension of the regional GLS regression procedures popularized by Tasker and Stedinger (1989), which is sensitive to the likely values of the model error variance when it is small relative to the sampling error in the at-site estimator.

A Bayesian Approach to More Stable Estimates of Group-Level Effects in Contextual Studies.

PubMed

Zitzmann, Steffen; Lüdtke, Oliver; Robitzsch, Alexander

2015-01-01

Multilevel analyses are often used to estimate the effects of group-level constructs. However, when using aggregated individual data (e.g., student ratings) to assess a group-level construct (e.g., classroom climate), the observed group mean might not provide a reliable measure of the unobserved latent group mean. In the present article, we propose a Bayesian approach that can be used to estimate a multilevel latent covariate model, which corrects for the unreliable assessment of the latent group mean when estimating the group-level effect. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the choice of different priors for the group-level variance of the predictor variable and to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood approach implemented in the software Mplus. Results showed that, under problematic conditions (i.e., small number of groups, predictor variable with a small ICC), the Bayesian approach produced more accurate estimates of the group-level effect than the maximum likelihood approach did.

Negative correlation between rates of molecular evolution and flowering cycles in temperate woody bamboos revealed by plastid phylogenomics.

PubMed

Ma, Peng-Fei; Vorontsova, Maria S; Nanjarisoa, Olinirina Prisca; Razanatsoa, Jacqueline; Guo, Zhen-Hua; Haevermans, Thomas; Li, De-Zhu

2017-12-21

Heterogeneous rates of molecular evolution are universal across the tree of life, posing challenges for phylogenetic inference. The temperate woody bamboos (tribe Arundinarieae, Poaceae) are noted for their extremely slow molecular evolutionary rates, supposedly caused by their mysterious monocarpic reproduction. However, the correlation between substitution rates and flowering cycles has not been formally tested. Here we present 15 newly sequenced plastid genomes of temperate woody bamboos, including the first genomes ever sequenced from Madagascar representatives. A data matrix of 46 plastid genomes representing all 12 lineages of Arundinarieae was assembled for phylogenetic and molecular evolutionary analyses. We conducted phylogenetic analyses using different sequences (e.g., coding and noncoding) combined with different data partitioning schemes, revealing conflicting relationships involving internodes among several lineages. A great difference in branch lengths were observed among the major lineages, and topological inconsistency could be attributed to long-branch attraction (LBA). Using clock model-fitting by maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, we furthermore demonstrated extensive rate variation among these major lineages. Rate accelerations mainly occurred for the isolated lineages with limited species diversification, totaling 11 rate shifts during the tribe's evolution. Using linear regression analysis, we found a negative correlation between rates of molecular evolution and flowering cycles for Arundinarieae, notwithstanding that the correlation maybe insignificant when taking the phylogenetic structure into account. Using the temperate woody bamboos as an example, we found further evidence that rate heterogeneity is universal in plants, suggesting that this will pose a challenge for phylogenetic reconstruction of bamboos. The bamboos with longer flowering cycles tend to evolve more slowly than those with shorter flowering cycles, in accordance with a putative generation time effect.

Statistical Constraints from Siderophile Elements on Earth's Accretion, Differentiation, and Initial Core Stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Rourke, J. G.; Stevenson, D. J.

2015-12-01

Abundances of siderophile elements in the primitive mantle constrain the conditions of Earth's core/mantle differentiation. Core growth occurred as Earth accreted from collisions between planetesimals and larger embryos of unknown original provenance, so geochemistry is directly related to the overall dynamics of Solar System formation. Recent studies claim that only certain conditions of equilibration (pressure, temperature, and oxygen fugacity) during core formation can reproduce the available data. Typical analyses, however, only consider the effects of varying a few out of tens of free parameters in continuous core formation models. Here we describe the Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which simultaneously incorporates the large uncertainties on Earth's composition and the parameterizations that describe elemental partitioning between metal and silicate. This Bayesian technique is vastly more computationally efficient than a simple grid search and is well suited to models of planetary accretion that involve a plethora of variables. In contrast to previous work, we find that analyses of siderophile elements alone cannot yield a unique scenario for Earth's accretion. Our models predict a wide range of possible light element contents for the core, encompassing all combinations permitted by seismology and mineral physics. Specifically, we are agnostic between silicon and oxygen as the dominant light element, and the addition of carbon or sulfur is also permissible but not well constrained. Redox conditions may have remained roughly constant during Earth's accretion or relatively oxygen-rich material could have been incorporated before reduced embryos. Pressures and temperatures of equilibration, likewise, may only increase slowly throughout accretion. Therefore, we do not necessarily expect a thick (>500 km), compositionally stratified layer that is stable against convection to develop at the top of the core of Earth (or, by analogy, Venus). A thinner stable layer might inhibit the initialization of the dynamo.

Seven new dolphin mitochondrial genomes and a time-calibrated phylogeny of whales

PubMed Central

Xiong, Ye; Brandley, Matthew C; Xu, Shixia; Zhou, Kaiya; Yang, Guang

2009-01-01

Background The phylogeny of Cetacea (whales) is not fully resolved with substantial support. The ambiguous and conflicting results of multiple phylogenetic studies may be the result of the use of too little data, phylogenetic methods that do not adequately capture the complex nature of DNA evolution, or both. In addition, there is also evidence that the generic taxonomy of Delphinidae (dolphins) underestimates its diversity. To remedy these problems, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial genomes of seven dolphins and analyzed these data with partitioned Bayesian analyses. Moreover, we incorporate a newly-developed "relaxed" molecular clock to model heterogenous rates of evolution among cetacean lineages. Results The "deep" phylogenetic relationships are well supported including the monophyly of Cetacea and Odontoceti. However, there is ambiguity in the phylogenetic affinities of two of the river dolphin clades Platanistidae (Indian River dolphins) and Lipotidae (Yangtze River dolphins). The phylogenetic analyses support a sister relationship between Delphinidae and Monodontidae + Phocoenidae. Additionally, there is statistically significant support for the paraphyly of Tursiops (bottlenose dolphins) and Stenella (spotted dolphins). Conclusion Our phylogenetic analysis of complete mitochondrial genomes using recently developed models of rate autocorrelation resolved the phylogenetic relationships of the major Cetacean lineages with a high degree of confidence. Our results indicate that a rapid radiation of lineages explains the lack of support the placement of Platanistidae and Lipotidae. Moreover, our estimation of molecular divergence dates indicates that these radiations occurred in the Middle to Late Oligocene and Middle Miocene, respectively. Furthermore, by collecting and analyzing seven new mitochondrial genomes, we provide strong evidence that the delphinid genera Tursiops and Stenella are not monophyletic, and the current taxonomy masks potentially interesting patterns of morphological, physiological, behavioral, and ecological evolution. PMID:19166626

Bayesian hierarchical models for cost-effectiveness analyses that use data from cluster randomized trials.

PubMed

Grieve, Richard; Nixon, Richard; Thompson, Simon G

2010-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) may be undertaken alongside cluster randomized trials (CRTs) where randomization is at the level of the cluster (for example, the hospital or primary care provider) rather than the individual. Costs (and outcomes) within clusters may be correlated so that the assumption made by standard bivariate regression models, that observations are independent, is incorrect. This study develops a flexible modeling framework to acknowledge the clustering in CEA that use CRTs. The authors extend previous Bayesian bivariate models for CEA of multicenter trials to recognize the specific form of clustering in CRTs. They develop new Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs) that allow mean costs and outcomes, and also variances, to differ across clusters. They illustrate how each model can be applied using data from a large (1732 cases, 70 primary care providers) CRT evaluating alternative interventions for reducing postnatal depression. The analyses compare cost-effectiveness estimates from BHMs with standard bivariate regression models that ignore the data hierarchy. The BHMs show high levels of cost heterogeneity across clusters (intracluster correlation coefficient, 0.17). Compared with standard regression models, the BHMs yield substantially increased uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness estimates, and altered point estimates. The authors conclude that ignoring clustering can lead to incorrect inferences. The BHMs that they present offer a flexible modeling framework that can be applied more generally to CEA that use CRTs.

Bayesian Nonparametric Ordination for the Analysis of Microbial Communities.

PubMed

Ren, Boyu; Bacallado, Sergio; Favaro, Stefano; Holmes, Susan; Trippa, Lorenzo

2017-01-01

Human microbiome studies use sequencing technologies to measure the abundance of bacterial species or Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) in samples of biological material. Typically the data are organized in contingency tables with OTU counts across heterogeneous biological samples. In the microbial ecology community, ordination methods are frequently used to investigate latent factors or clusters that capture and describe variations of OTU counts across biological samples. It remains important to evaluate how uncertainty in estimates of each biological sample's microbial distribution propagates to ordination analyses, including visualization of clusters and projections of biological samples on low dimensional spaces. We propose a Bayesian analysis for dependent distributions to endow frequently used ordinations with estimates of uncertainty. A Bayesian nonparametric prior for dependent normalized random measures is constructed, which is marginally equivalent to the normalized generalized Gamma process, a well-known prior for nonparametric analyses. In our prior, the dependence and similarity between microbial distributions is represented by latent factors that concentrate in a low dimensional space. We use a shrinkage prior to tune the dimensionality of the latent factors. The resulting posterior samples of model parameters can be used to evaluate uncertainty in analyses routinely applied in microbiome studies. Specifically, by combining them with multivariate data analysis techniques we can visualize credible regions in ecological ordination plots. The characteristics of the proposed model are illustrated through a simulation study and applications in two microbiome datasets.

Physicochemical properties/descriptors governing the solubility and partitioning of chemicals in water-solvent-gas systems. Part 1. Partitioning between octanol and air.

PubMed

Raevsky, O A; Grigor'ev, V J; Raevskaja, O E; Schaper, K-J

2006-06-01

QSPR analyses of a data set containing experimental partition coefficients in the three systems octanol-water, water-gas, and octanol-gas for 98 chemicals have shown that it is possible to calculate any partition coefficient in the system 'gas phase/octanol/water' by three different approaches: (1) from experimental partition coefficients obtained in the corresponding two other subsystems. However, in many cases these data may not be available. Therefore, a solution may be approached (2), a traditional QSPR analysis based on e.g. HYBOT descriptors (hydrogen bond acceptor and donor factors, SigmaCa and SigmaCd, together with polarisability alpha, a steric bulk effect descriptor) and supplemented with substructural indicator variables. (3) A very promising approach which is a combination of the similarity concept and QSPR based on HYBOT descriptors. In this approach observed partition coefficients of structurally nearest neighbours of a compound-of-interest are used. In addition, contributions arising from differences in alpha, SigmaCa, and SigmaCd values between the compound-of-interest and its nearest neighbour(s), respectively, are considered. In this investigation highly significant relationships were obtained by approaches (1) and (3) for the octanol/gas phase partition coefficient (log Log).

A 250 plastome phylogeny of the grass family (Poaceae): topological support under different data partitions

PubMed Central

Burke, Sean V.; Wysocki, William P.; Clark, Lynn G.

2018-01-01

The systematics of grasses has advanced through applications of plastome phylogenomics, although studies have been largely limited to subfamilies or other subgroups of Poaceae. Here we present a plastome phylogenomic analysis of 250 complete plastomes (179 genera) sampled from 44 of the 52 tribes of Poaceae. Plastome sequences were determined from high throughput sequencing libraries and the assemblies represent over 28.7 Mbases of sequence data. Phylogenetic signal was characterized in 14 partitions, including (1) complete plastomes; (2) protein coding regions; (3) noncoding regions; and (4) three loci commonly used in single and multi-gene studies of grasses. Each of the four main partitions was further refined, alternatively including or excluding positively selected codons and also the gaps introduced by the alignment. All 76 protein coding plastome loci were found to be predominantly under purifying selection, but specific codons were found to be under positive selection in 65 loci. The loci that have been widely used in multi-gene phylogenetic studies had among the highest proportions of positively selected codons, suggesting caution in the interpretation of these earlier results. Plastome phylogenomic analyses confirmed the backbone topology for Poaceae with maximum bootstrap support (BP). Among the 14 analyses, 82 clades out of 309 resolved were maximally supported in all trees. Analyses of newly sequenced plastomes were in agreement with current classifications. Five of seven partitions in which alignment gaps were removed retrieved Panicoideae as sister to the remaining PACMAD subfamilies. Alternative topologies were recovered in trees from partitions that included alignment gaps. This suggests that ambiguities in aligning these uncertain regions might introduce a false signal. Resolution of these and other critical branch points in the phylogeny of Poaceae will help to better understand the selective forces that drove the radiation of the BOP and PACMAD clades comprising more than 99.9% of grass diversity. PMID:29416954

A comment on priors for Bayesian occupancy models

PubMed Central

Gerber, Brian D.

2018-01-01

Understanding patterns of species occurrence and the processes underlying these patterns is fundamental to the study of ecology. One of the more commonly used approaches to investigate species occurrence patterns is occupancy modeling, which can account for imperfect detection of a species during surveys. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of Bayesian modeling in ecology, which includes fitting Bayesian occupancy models. The Bayesian framework is appealing to ecologists for many reasons, including the ability to incorporate prior information through the specification of prior distributions on parameters. While ecologists almost exclusively intend to choose priors so that they are “uninformative” or “vague”, such priors can easily be unintentionally highly informative. Here we report on how the specification of a “vague” normally distributed (i.e., Gaussian) prior on coefficients in Bayesian occupancy models can unintentionally influence parameter estimation. Using both simulated data and empirical examples, we illustrate how this issue likely compromises inference about species-habitat relationships. While the extent to which these informative priors influence inference depends on the data set, researchers fitting Bayesian occupancy models should conduct sensitivity analyses to ensure intended inference, or employ less commonly used priors that are less informative (e.g., logistic or t prior distributions). We provide suggestions for addressing this issue in occupancy studies, and an online tool for exploring this issue under different contexts. PMID:29481554

Propagation of population pharmacokinetic information using a Bayesian approach: comparison with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dokoumetzidis, Aristides; Aarons, Leon

2005-08-01

We investigated the propagation of population pharmacokinetic information across clinical studies by applying Bayesian techniques. The aim was to summarize the population pharmacokinetic estimates of a study in appropriate statistical distributions in order to use them as Bayesian priors in consequent population pharmacokinetic analyses. Various data sets of simulated and real clinical data were fitted with WinBUGS, with and without informative priors. The posterior estimates of fittings with non-informative priors were used to build parametric informative priors and the whole procedure was carried on in a consecutive manner. The posterior distributions of the fittings with informative priors where compared to those of the meta-analysis fittings of the respective combinations of data sets. Good agreement was found, for the simulated and experimental datasets when the populations were exchangeable, with the posterior distribution from the fittings with the prior to be nearly identical to the ones estimated with meta-analysis. However, when populations were not exchangeble an alternative parametric form for the prior, the natural conjugate prior, had to be used in order to have consistent results. In conclusion, the results of a population pharmacokinetic analysis may be summarized in Bayesian prior distributions that can be used consecutively with other analyses. The procedure is an alternative to meta-analysis and gives comparable results. It has the advantage that it is faster than the meta-analysis, due to the large datasets used with the latter and can be performed when the data included in the prior are not actually available.

Cross-validation to select Bayesian hierarchical models in phylogenetics.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Duchêne, David A; Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Eden, John-Sebastian; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holt, Kathryn E; Ho, Simon Y W; Holmes, Edward C

2016-05-26

Recent developments in Bayesian phylogenetic models have increased the range of inferences that can be drawn from molecular sequence data. Accordingly, model selection has become an important component of phylogenetic analysis. Methods of model selection generally consider the likelihood of the data under the model in question. In the context of Bayesian phylogenetics, the most common approach involves estimating the marginal likelihood, which is typically done by integrating the likelihood across model parameters, weighted by the prior. Although this method is accurate, it is sensitive to the presence of improper priors. We explored an alternative approach based on cross-validation that is widely used in evolutionary analysis. This involves comparing models according to their predictive performance. We analysed simulated data and a range of viral and bacterial data sets using a cross-validation approach to compare a variety of molecular clock and demographic models. Our results show that cross-validation can be effective in distinguishing between strict- and relaxed-clock models and in identifying demographic models that allow growth in population size over time. In most of our empirical data analyses, the model selected using cross-validation was able to match that selected using marginal-likelihood estimation. The accuracy of cross-validation appears to improve with longer sequence data, particularly when distinguishing between relaxed-clock models. Cross-validation is a useful method for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection. This method can be readily implemented even when considering complex models where selecting an appropriate prior for all parameters may be difficult.

Phylogenetic analyses of RPB1 and RPB2 support a middle Cretaceous origin for a clade comprising all agriculturally and medically important fusaria

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most economically important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic phytopathogens and emergent human pathogens. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial RNA polymerase largest (...

Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models.

PubMed

Ribes, J; Esteban, L; Clèries, R; Galceran, J; Marcos-Gragera, R; Gispert, R; Ameijide, A; Vilardell, M L; Borras, J; Puigdefabregas, A; Buxó, M; Freitas, A; Izquierdo, A; Borras, J M

2014-08-01

To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010-2020. Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models. There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010-2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes. The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.

Bridging Inter- and Intraspecific Trait Evolution with a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Kostikova, Anna; Silvestro, Daniele; Pearman, Peter B; Salamin, Nicolas

2016-05-01

The evolution of organisms is crucially dependent on the evolution of intraspecific variation. Its interactions with selective agents in the biotic and abiotic environments underlie many processes, such as intraspecific competition, resource partitioning and, eventually, species formation. Nevertheless, comparative models of trait evolution neither allow explicit testing of hypotheses related to the evolution of intraspecific variation nor do they simultaneously estimate rates of trait evolution by accounting for both trait mean and variance. Here, we present a model of phenotypic trait evolution using a hierarchical Bayesian approach that simultaneously incorporates interspecific and intraspecific variation. We assume that species-specific trait means evolve under a simple Brownian motion process, whereas species-specific trait variances are modeled with Brownian or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. After evaluating the power of the method through simulations, we examine whether life-history traits impact evolution of intraspecific variation in the Eriogonoideae (buckwheat family, Polygonaceae). Our model is readily extendible to more complex scenarios of the evolution of inter- and intraspecific variation and presents a step toward more comprehensive comparative models for macroevolutionary studies. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, Rahul; van der Tol, Christiaan; Hamm, Nicholas Alexander Samuel; Stein, Alfred

2018-01-01

Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

Competition influence in the segregation of the trophic niche of otariids: a case study using isotopic Bayesian mixing models in Galapagos pinnipeds.

PubMed

Páez-Rosas, Diego; Rodríguez-Pérez, Mónica; Riofrío-Lazo, Marjorie

2014-12-15

The feeding success of predators is associated with the competition level for resources, and, thus, sympatric species are exposed to a potential trophic overlap. Isotopic Bayesian mixing models should provide a better understanding of the contribution of preys to the diet of predators and the feeding behavior of a species over time. The carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures from pup hair samples of 93 Galapagos sea lions and 48 Galapagos fur seals collected between 2003 and 2009 in different regions (east and west) of the archipelago were analyzed. A PDZ Europa ANCA-GSL elemental analyzer interfaced with a PDZ Europa 20-20 continuous flow gas source mass spectrometer was employed. Bayesian models, SIAR and SIBER, were used to estimate the contribution of prey to the diet of predators, the niche breadth, and the trophic overlap level between the populations. Statistical differences in the isotopic values of both predators were observed over the time. The mixing model determined that Galapagos fur seals had a primarily teutophagous diet, whereas the Galapagos sea lions fed exclusively on fish in both regions of the archipelago. The SIBER analysis showed differences in the trophic niche between the two sea lion populations, with the western rookery of the Galapagos sea lion being the population with the largest trophic niche area. A trophic niche partitioning between Galapagos fur seals and Galapagos sea lions in the west of the archipelago is suggested by our results. At intraspecific level, the western population of the Galapagos sea lion (ZwW) showed higher trophic breadth than the eastern population, a strategy adopted by the ZwW to decrease the interspecific competition levels in the western region. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Back to BaySICS: a user-friendly program for Bayesian Statistical Inference from Coalescent Simulations.

PubMed

Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Dalén, Love

2014-01-01

Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods.

BM-Map: Bayesian Mapping of Multireads for Next-Generation Sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Ji, Yuan; Xu, Yanxun; Zhang, Qiong; Tsui, Kam-Wah; Yuan, Yuan; Norris, Clift; Liang, Shoudan; Liang, Han

2011-01-01

Summary Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology generates millions of short reads, which provide valuable information for various aspects of cellular activities and biological functions. A key step in NGS applications (e.g., RNA-Seq) is to map short reads to correct genomic locations within the source genome. While most reads are mapped to a unique location, a significant proportion of reads align to multiple genomic locations with equal or similar numbers of mismatches; these are called multireads. The ambiguity in mapping the multireads may lead to bias in downstream analyses. Currently, most practitioners discard the multireads in their analysis, resulting in a loss of valuable information, especially for the genes with similar sequences. To refine the read mapping, we develop a Bayesian model that computes the posterior probability of mapping a multiread to each competing location. The probabilities are used for downstream analyses, such as the quantification of gene expression. We show through simulation studies and RNA-Seq analysis of real life data that the Bayesian method yields better mapping than the current leading methods. We provide a C++ program for downloading that is being packaged into a user-friendly software. PMID:21517792

Using Cluster Analysis to Compartmentalize a Large Managed Wetland Based on Physical, Biological, and Climatic Geospatial Attributes.

PubMed

Hahus, Ian; Migliaccio, Kati; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle; Klarenberg, Geraldine; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

2018-04-27

Hierarchical and partitional cluster analyses were used to compartmentalize Water Conservation Area 1, a managed wetland within the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Florida, USA, based on physical, biological, and climatic geospatial attributes. Single, complete, average, and Ward's linkages were tested during the hierarchical cluster analyses, with average linkage providing the best results. In general, the partitional method, partitioning around medoids, found clusters that were more evenly sized and more spatially aggregated than those resulting from the hierarchical analyses. However, hierarchical analysis appeared to be better suited to identify outlier regions that were significantly different from other areas. The clusters identified by geospatial attributes were similar to clusters developed for the interior marsh in a separate study using water quality attributes, suggesting that similar factors have influenced variations in both the set of physical, biological, and climatic attributes selected in this study and water quality parameters. However, geospatial data allowed further subdivision of several interior marsh clusters identified from the water quality data, potentially indicating zones with important differences in function. Identification of these zones can be useful to managers and modelers by informing the distribution of monitoring equipment and personnel as well as delineating regions that may respond similarly to future changes in management or climate.

Control of ingot quality and solar cell appearance of cast mono-like silicon by using seed partitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, C. Y.; Wu, Y. C.; Lan, A.; Yang, C. F.; Hsu, C.; Lu, C. M.; Yang, A.; Lan, C. W.

2017-10-01

The growth of mono-like ingot by directional solidification has suffered serious problems in defect control. We proposed a simple approach by using seed partitions, and the grown crystal had much lower defects and better orientation uniformity. Furthermore, the partitions allowed the much easier seed preparation, which had a significant advantage in production. The concept was demonstrated by a G1 experiment, and the detailed defect analyses were carried out. The wafers after gettering had the best lifetime of more than 1 ms after surface passivation. The color mismatch in the appearance of the solar cells made from the wafer was also significantly mitigated.

Analysis of the genetic diversity and structure across a wide range of germplasm reveals prominent gene flow in apple at the European level.

PubMed

Urrestarazu, Jorge; Denancé, Caroline; Ravon, Elisa; Guyader, Arnaud; Guisnel, Rémi; Feugey, Laurence; Poncet, Charles; Lateur, Marc; Houben, Patrick; Ordidge, Matthew; Fernandez-Fernandez, Felicidad; Evans, Kate M; Paprstein, Frantisek; Sedlak, Jiri; Nybom, Hilde; Garkava-Gustavsson, Larisa; Miranda, Carlos; Gassmann, Jennifer; Kellerhals, Markus; Suprun, Ivan; Pikunova, Anna V; Krasova, Nina G; Torutaeva, Elnura; Dondini, Luca; Tartarini, Stefano; Laurens, François; Durel, Charles-Eric

2016-06-08

The amount and structure of genetic diversity in dessert apple germplasm conserved at a European level is mostly unknown, since all diversity studies conducted in Europe until now have been performed on regional or national collections. Here, we applied a common set of 16 SSR markers to genotype more than 2,400 accessions across 14 collections representing three broad European geographic regions (North + East, West and South) with the aim to analyze the extent, distribution and structure of variation in the apple genetic resources in Europe. A Bayesian model-based clustering approach showed that diversity was organized in three groups, although these were only moderately differentiated (FST = 0.031). A nested Bayesian clustering approach allowed identification of subgroups which revealed internal patterns of substructure within the groups, allowing a finer delineation of the variation into eight subgroups (FST = 0.044). The first level of stratification revealed an asymmetric division of the germplasm among the three groups, and a clear association was found with the geographical regions of origin of the cultivars. The substructure revealed clear partitioning of genetic groups among countries, but also interesting associations between subgroups and breeding purposes of recent cultivars or particular usage such as cider production. Additional parentage analyses allowed us to identify both putative parents of more than 40 old and/or local cultivars giving interesting insights in the pedigree of some emblematic cultivars. The variation found at group and subgroup levels may reflect a combination of historical processes of migration/selection and adaptive factors to diverse agricultural environments that, together with genetic drift, have resulted in extensive genetic variation but limited population structure. The European dessert apple germplasm represents an important source of genetic diversity with a strong historical and patrimonial value. The present work thus constitutes a decisive step in the field of conservation genetics. Moreover, the obtained data can be used for defining a European apple core collection useful for further identification of genomic regions associated with commercially important horticultural traits in apple through genome-wide association studies.

Extracting phylogenetic signal and accounting for bias in whole-genome data sets supports the Ctenophora as sister to remaining Metazoa.

PubMed

Borowiec, Marek L; Lee, Ernest K; Chiu, Joanna C; Plachetzki, David C

2015-11-23

Understanding the phylogenetic relationships among major lineages of multicellular animals (the Metazoa) is a prerequisite for studying the evolution of complex traits such as nervous systems, muscle tissue, or sensory organs. Transcriptome-based phylogenies have dramatically improved our understanding of metazoan relationships in recent years, although several important questions remain. The branching order near the base of the tree, in particular the placement of the poriferan (sponges, phylum Porifera) and ctenophore (comb jellies, phylum Ctenophora) lineages is one outstanding issue. Recent analyses have suggested that the comb jellies are sister to all remaining metazoan phyla including sponges. This finding is surprising because it suggests that neurons and other complex traits, present in ctenophores and eumetazoans but absent in sponges or placozoans, either evolved twice in Metazoa or were independently, secondarily lost in the lineages leading to sponges and placozoans. To address the question of basal metazoan relationships we assembled a novel dataset comprised of 1080 orthologous loci derived from 36 publicly available genomes representing major lineages of animals. From this large dataset we procured an optimized set of partitions with high phylogenetic signal for resolving metazoan relationships. This optimized data set is amenable to the most appropriate and computationally intensive analyses using site-heterogeneous models of sequence evolution. We also employed several strategies to examine the potential for long-branch attraction to bias our inferences. Our analyses strongly support the Ctenophora as the sister lineage to other Metazoa. We find no support for the traditional view uniting the ctenophores and Cnidaria. Our findings are supported by Bayesian comparisons of topological hypotheses and we find no evidence that they are biased by long-branch attraction. Our study further clarifies relationships among early branching metazoan lineages. Our phylogeny supports the still-controversial position of ctenophores as sister group to all other metazoans. This study also provides a workflow and computational tools for minimizing systematic bias in genome-based phylogenetic analyses. Future studies of metazoan phylogeny will benefit from ongoing efforts to sequence the genomes of additional invertebrate taxa that will continue to inform our view of the relationships among the major lineages of animals.

Alternative models in genetic analyses of carcass traits measured by ultrasonography in Guzerá cattle: A Bayesian approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective was to study alternative models for genetic analyses of carcass traits assessed by ultrasonography in Guzerá cattle. Data from 947 measurements (655 animals) of Rib-eye area (REA), rump fat thickness (RFT) and backfat thickness (BFT) were used. Finite polygenic models (FPM), infinitesi...

A Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending function to control type I error.

PubMed

Zhu, Han; Yu, Qingzhao

2017-10-01

We propose in this article a Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending functions to control the overall type I error in phase III clinical trials. We provide algorithms to calculate critical values, power, and sample sizes for the proposed design. Sensitivity analysis is implemented to check the effects from different prior distributions, and conservative priors are recommended. We compare the power and actual sample sizes of the proposed Bayesian sequential design with different alpha spending functions through simulations. We also compare the power of the proposed method with frequentist sequential design using the same alpha spending function. Simulations show that, at the same sample size, the proposed method provides larger power than the corresponding frequentist sequential design. It also has larger power than traditional Bayesian sequential design which sets equal critical values for all interim analyses. When compared with other alpha spending functions, O'Brien-Fleming alpha spending function has the largest power and is the most conservative in terms that at the same sample size, the null hypothesis is the least likely to be rejected at early stage of clinical trials. And finally, we show that adding a step of stop for futility in the Bayesian sequential design can reduce the overall type I error and reduce the actual sample sizes.

Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

PubMed Central

Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Macdonald, R. Loch; Baker, Andrew; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

2013-01-01

Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients). Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs). Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique) denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication. PMID:23690884

Application of New Partition Coefficients to Modeling Plagioclase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fagan, A. L.; Neal, C. R.; Rapp, J. F.; Draper, D. S.; Lapen, T. J.

2017-01-01

Previously, studies that determined the partition coefficient for an element, i, between plagioclase and the residual basaltic melt (Di plag) have been conducted using experimental conditions dissimilar from the Moon, and thus these values are not ideal for modeling plagioclase fractionation in a lunar system. However, recent work [1] has determined partition coefficients for plagioclase at lunar oxygen fugacities, and resulted in plagioclase with Anorthite contents =An90; these are significantly more calcic than plagioclase in previous studies, and the An content has a profound effect on partition coefficient values [2,3]. Plagioclase D-values, which are dependent on the An content of the crystal [e.g., 2-6], can be determined using published experimental data and the correlative An contents. Here, we examine new experimental data from [1] to ascertain their effect on the calculation of equilibrium liquids from Apollo 16 sample 60635,2. This sample is a coarse grained, subophitic impact melt composed of 55% plagioclase laths with An94.4-98.7 [7,8], distinctly more calcic than of previous partition coefficient studies (e.g., [3-6, 9-10]). Sample 60635,2 is notable as having several plagioclase trace element analyses containing a negative Europium anomaly (-Eu) in the rare-earth element (REE) profile, rather than the typical positive Eu anomaly (+Eu) [7-8] (Fig. 1). The expected +Eu is due to the similarity in size and charge with Ca2+, thereby allowing Eu2+ to be easily taken up by the plagioclase crystal structure, in contrast to the remaining REE3+. Some 60635,2 plagioclase crystals only have +Eu REE profiles, some only have -Eu REE profiles, and some +Eu and -Eu analyses in different areas on a single crystal [7, 8]. Moreover, there does not seem to be any core-rim association with the +Eu or -Eu analyses, nor does there appear to be a correlation between the size, shape, or location of a particular crystal within the sample and the sign of its Eu anomaly, which suggests a complex evolution. In order to investigate this sample further, we can calculate the equilibrium liquids, but with An contents distinct from previous experimental studies, we must calculate the appropriate partition coefficients for each trace element analysis.

Research on Crack Formation in Gypsum Partitions with Doorway by Means of FEM and Fracture Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kania, Tomasz; Stawiski, Bohdan

2017-10-01

Cracking damage in non-loadbearing internal partition walls is a serious problem that frequently occurs in new buildings within the short term after putting them into service or even before completion of construction. Damage in partition walls is sometimes so great that they cannot be accepted by their occupiers. This problem was illustrated by the example of damage in a gypsum partition wall with doorway attributed to deflection of the slabs beneath and above it. In searching for the deflection which causes damage in masonry walls, fracture mechanics applied to the Finite Element Method (FEM) have been used. For a description of gypsum behaviour, the smeared cracking material model has been selected, where stresses are transferred across the narrowly opened crack until its width reaches the ultimate value. Cracks in the Finite Element models overlapped the real damage observed in the buildings. In order to avoid cracks under the deflection of large floor slabs, the model of a wall with reinforcement in the doorstep zone and a 40 mm thick elastic junction between the partition and ceiling has been analysed.

Experimental and natural partitioning behaviour of trace-elements between hydrous evolved melts, amphibole, plagioclase, and clinopyroxene at shallow crustal conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iveson, A. A.; Webster, J. D.; Rowe, M. C.; Neill, O. K.

2016-12-01

New experimental data for crystal-melt partitioning behaviour of a suite of trace-elements are presented. Hydrous rhyo-dacitic starting glasses from Mt. Usu, Japan, were doped with Li, Sc, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Rb, Sr, Y, Nb, Mo, Ba, W, and Pb. Aqueous solutions were added such that the volatile phase(s) coexisting with amphibole, plagioclase, and clinopyroxene at run conditions buffered the S, F, and Cl contents of the melts. Internally-heated pressure vessel experiments were conducted at 750-850 °C, 1.0-4.0 Kbar, and ƒO2 ≈ NNO-NNO+2 log units. Major- and minor-element concentrations in the phenocrysts and glasses were analysed by EPMA, and trace-element contents by SIMS and/or LA-ICP-MS. The long run durations, homogeneous glasses, and minimal compositional zonation of crystals suggest that near-equilibrium conditions were achieved. Results of multiple phenocryst and glass analyses show that Nernst-type crystal-melt partition coefficients for these elements range from strongly incompatible e.g. Dmineral/melt ≈ 0 for Nb into plagioclase, to moderately incompatible e.g. Dmineral/melt ≈ 0.75 for Ga into amphibole, to strongly compatible e.g. Dmineral/melt > 50 for Ni into amphibole and clinopyroxene. Furthermore, unlike other elements investigated, partitioning of Li between phenocrysts and melt is similar for all three phases, with average DLicpx/melt ≈ 0.26 > DLiplag/melt ≈ 0.24 > DLiamph/melt ≈ 0.19. Relative to major-element composition of crystalline phases, the temperature, pressure, and ƒO2 conditions do not appear to strongly affect this behaviour. The incorporation of F and Cl into amphiboles is also consistent with the Fe-F and Mg-Cl crystallographic avoidance principles. Importantly, across two orders of magnitude in concentration, partitioning behaviours of all analysed trace-elements appear to obey Henry's Law. The experimental data are integrated with new amphibole, plagioclase, and pyroxene analyses from eruptive products of Augustine and Mt. St. Helens volcanoes. The results are applicable to understanding processes governing melt evolution during shallow magma storage and formation of economic metal deposits, where the crystallisation of porphyry-type magmas leads to fluid exsolution, and enrichment and transport of such trace- and ore-elements.

Cross-Cultural Invariance of the Mental Toughness Inventory Among Australian, Chinese, and Malaysian Athletes: A Bayesian Estimation Approach.

PubMed

Gucciardi, Daniel F; Zhang, Chun-Qing; Ponnusamy, Vellapandian; Si, Gangyan; Stenling, Andreas

2016-04-01

The aims of this study were to assess the cross-cultural invariance of athletes' self-reports of mental toughness and to introduce and illustrate the application of approximate measurement invariance using Bayesian estimation for sport and exercise psychology scholars. Athletes from Australia (n = 353, Mage = 19.13, SD = 3.27, men = 161), China (n = 254, Mage = 17.82, SD = 2.28, men = 138), and Malaysia (n = 341, Mage = 19.13, SD = 3.27, men = 200) provided a cross-sectional snapshot of their mental toughness. The cross-cultural invariance of the mental toughness inventory in terms of (a) the factor structure (configural invariance), (b) factor loadings (metric invariance), and (c) item intercepts (scalar invariance) was tested using an approximate measurement framework with Bayesian estimation. Results indicated that approximate metric and scalar invariance was established. From a methodological standpoint, this study demonstrated the usefulness and flexibility of Bayesian estimation for single-sample and multigroup analyses of measurement instruments. Substantively, the current findings suggest that the measurement of mental toughness requires cultural adjustments to better capture the contextually salient (emic) aspects of this concept.

Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

PubMed Central

Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

2014-01-01

We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

Mechanisms of motivational interviewing in health promotion: a Bayesian mediation analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Counselor behaviors that mediate the efficacy of motivational interviewing (MI) are not well understood, especially when applied to health behavior promotion. We hypothesized that client change talk mediates the relationship between counselor variables and subsequent client behavior change. Methods Purposeful sampling identified individuals from a prospective randomized worksite trial using an MI intervention to promote firefighters’ healthy diet and regular exercise that increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 21) or did not increase intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 22). MI interactions were coded using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC 2.1) to categorize counselor and firefighter verbal utterances. Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses were used to investigate whether client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor skills and behavior change. Results Counselors’ global spirit, empathy, and direction and MI-consistent behavioral counts (e.g., reflections, open questions, affirmations, emphasize control) significantly correlated with firefighters’ total client change talk utterances (rs = 0.42, 0.40, 0.30, and 0.61, respectively), which correlated significantly with their fruit and vegetable intake increase (r = 0.33). Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses demonstrated that findings were consistent with hypotheses, such that total client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor’s skills—MI-consistent behaviors [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03), 95% CI = .02, .12] and MI spirit [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03), 95% CI = .01, .13]—and increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Conclusion Motivational interviewing is a resource- and time-intensive intervention, and is currently being applied in many arenas. Previous research has identified the importance of counselor behaviors and client change talk in the treatment of substance use disorders. Our results indicate that similar mechanisms may underlie the effects of MI for dietary change. These results inform MI training and application by identifying those processes critical for MI success in health promotion domains. PMID:22681874

Estimating the extent and distribution of new-onset adult asthma in British Columbia using frequentist and Bayesian approaches.

PubMed

Beach, Jeremy; Burstyn, Igor; Cherry, Nicola

2012-07-01

We previously described a method to identify the incidence of new-onset adult asthma (NOAA) in Alberta by industry and occupation, utilizing Workers' Compensation Board (WCB) and physician billing data. The aim of this study was to extend this method to data from British Columbia (BC) so as to compare the two provinces and to incorporate Bayesian methodology into estimates of risk. WCB claims for any reason 1995-2004 were linked to physician billing data. NOAA was defined as a billing for asthma (ICD-9 493) in the 12 months before a WCB claim without asthma in the previous 3 years. Incidence was calculated by occupation and industry. In a matched case-referent analysis, associations with exposures were examined using an asthma-specific job exposure matrix (JEM). Posterior distributions from the Alberta analysis and estimated misclassification parameters were used as priors in the Bayesian analysis of the BC data. Among 1 118 239 eligible WCB claims the incidence of NOAA was 1.4%. Sixteen occupations and 44 industries had a significantly increased risk; six industries had a decreased risk. The JEM identified wood dust [odds ratio (OR) 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-2.24] and animal antigens (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.17-2.36) as related to an increased risk of NOAA. Exposure to isocyanates was associated with decreased risk (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.39-0.85). Bayesian analyses taking account of exposure misclassification and informative priors resulted in posterior distributions of ORs with lower boundary of 95% credible intervals >1.00 for almost all exposures. The distribution of NOAA in BC appeared somewhat similar to that in Alberta, except for isocyanates. Bayesian analyses allowed incorporation of prior evidence into risk estimates, permitting reconsideration of the apparently protective effect of isocyanate exposure.

Testing for Divergent Transmission Histories among Cultural Characters: A Study Using Bayesian Phylogenetic Methods and Iranian Tribal Textile Data

PubMed Central

Matthews, Luke J.; Tehrani, Jamie J.; Jordan, Fiona M.; Collard, Mark; Nunn, Charles L.

2011-01-01

Background Archaeologists and anthropologists have long recognized that different cultural complexes may have distinct descent histories, but they have lacked analytical techniques capable of easily identifying such incongruence. Here, we show how Bayesian phylogenetic analysis can be used to identify incongruent cultural histories. We employ the approach to investigate Iranian tribal textile traditions. Methods We used Bayes factor comparisons in a phylogenetic framework to test two models of cultural evolution: the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis and the multiple coherent units hypothesis. In the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis, a core tradition of characters evolves through descent with modification and characters peripheral to the core are exchanged among contemporaneous populations. In the multiple coherent units hypothesis, a core tradition does not exist. Rather, there are several cultural units consisting of sets of characters that have different histories of descent. Results For the Iranian textiles, the Bayesian phylogenetic analyses supported the multiple coherent units hypothesis over the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis. Our analyses suggest that pile-weave designs represent a distinct cultural unit that has a different phylogenetic history compared to other textile characters. Conclusions The results from the Iranian textiles are consistent with the available ethnographic evidence, which suggests that the commercial rug market has influenced pile-rug designs but not the techniques or designs incorporated in the other textiles produced by the tribes. We anticipate that Bayesian phylogenetic tests for inferring cultural units will be of great value for researchers interested in studying the evolution of cultural traits including language, behavior, and material culture. PMID:21559083

"A Bayesian sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of unmeasured confounding with external data: a real world comparative effectiveness study in osteoporosis".

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Faries, Douglas E; Boytsov, Natalie; Stamey, James D; Seaman, John W

2016-09-01

Observational studies are frequently used to assess the effectiveness of medical interventions in routine clinical practice. However, the use of observational data for comparative effectiveness is challenged by selection bias and the potential of unmeasured confounding. This is especially problematic for analyses using a health care administrative database, in which key clinical measures are often not available. This paper provides an approach to conducting a sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. In a real world osteoporosis comparative effectiveness study, the bone mineral density (BMD) score, an important predictor of fracture risk and a factor in the selection of osteoporosis treatments, is unavailable in the data base and lack of baseline BMD could potentially lead to significant selection bias. We implemented Bayesian twin-regression models, which simultaneously model both the observed outcome and the unobserved unmeasured confounder, using information from external sources. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of our conclusions to changes in such external data. The use of Bayesian modeling in this study suggests that the lack of baseline BMD did have a strong impact on the analysis, reversing the direction of the estimated effect (odds ratio of fracture incidence at 24 months: 0.40 vs. 1.36, with/without adjusting for unmeasured baseline BMD). The Bayesian twin-regression models provide a flexible sensitivity analysis tool to quantitatively assess the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The impact of using informative priors in a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis: an application of endovascular versus open surgical repair for abdominal aortic aneurysms in high-risk patients.

PubMed

McCarron, C Elizabeth; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Thabane, Lehana; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Eric

2013-04-01

Bayesian methods have been proposed as a way of synthesizing all available evidence to inform decision making. However, few practical applications of the use of Bayesian methods for combining patient-level data (i.e., trial) with additional evidence (e.g., literature) exist in the cost-effectiveness literature. The objective of this study was to compare a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis using informative priors to a standard non-Bayesian nonparametric method to assess the impact of incorporating additional information into a cost-effectiveness analysis. Patient-level data from a previously published nonrandomized study were analyzed using traditional nonparametric bootstrap techniques and bivariate normal Bayesian models with vague and informative priors. Two different types of informative priors were considered to reflect different valuations of the additional evidence relative to the patient-level data (i.e., "face value" and "skeptical"). The impact of using different distributions and valuations was assessed in a sensitivity analysis. Models were compared in terms of incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers (CEAFs). The bootstrapping and Bayesian analyses using vague priors provided similar results. The most pronounced impact of incorporating the informative priors was the increase in estimated life years in the control arm relative to what was observed in the patient-level data alone. Consequently, the incremental difference in life years originally observed in the patient-level data was reduced, and the INMB and CEAF changed accordingly. The results of this study demonstrate the potential impact and importance of incorporating additional information into an analysis of patient-level data, suggesting this could alter decisions as to whether a treatment should be adopted and whether more information should be acquired.

Equilibrium partitioning of organic compounds to OASIS HLB® as a function of compound concentration, pH, temperature and salinity.

PubMed

Jeong, Yoonah; Schäffer, Andreas; Smith, Kilian

2017-05-01

Oasis hydrophilic lipophilic balance ® (Oasis HLB) is commonly employed in solid phase extraction (SPE) of environmental contaminants and within polar organic chemical integrative passive samplers (POCIS). In this study batch experiments were carried out to evaluate the relative affinity of a range of relevant organic pollutants to Oasis HLB in aqueous systems. The influence of sorbate concentration, temperature, pH, and salinity on the equilibrium sorption was investigated. Equilibrium partition ratios (K D ) of 28 compounds were determined, ranging over three orders of magnitude from 1.16 × 10 3  L/kg (atenolol) to 1.07 × 10 6  L/kg (isoproturon). The Freundlich model was able to describe the equilibrium partitioning to Oasis HLB, and an analysis of the thermodynamic parameters revealed the spontaneous and exothermic nature of the partitioning process. Ionic strength had only a minor effect on the partitioning, whereas pH had a considerable effect but only for ionizable compounds. The results show that apolar interactions between the Oasis HLB and analyte mainly determine the equilibrium partitioning. These research findings can be used to optimize the application of SPE and POCIS for analyses of environmental contaminants even in complex mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Tegucigalpa, Honduras Using Artificial Neural Network, Bayesian Network and Decision Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Urquia, E. L.; Braun, A.; Yamagishi, H.

2016-12-01

Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, experiences rainfall-induced landslides on a yearly basis. The high precipitation regime and the rugged topography the city has been built in couple with the lack of a proper urban expansion plan to contribute to the occurrence of landslides during the rainy season. Thousands of inhabitants live at risk of losing their belongings due to the construction of precarious shelters in landslide-prone areas on mountainous terrains and next to the riverbanks. Therefore, the city is in the need for landslide susceptibility and hazard maps to aid in the regulation of future development. Major challenges in the context of highly dynamic urbanizing areas are the overlap of natural and anthropogenic slope destabilizing factors, as well as the availability and accuracy of data. Data-driven multivariate techniques have proven to be powerful in discovering interrelations between factors, identifying important factors in large datasets, capturing non-linear problems and coping with noisy and incomplete data. This analysis focuses on the creation of a landslide susceptibility map using different methods from the field of data mining, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Bayesian Networks (BN) and Decision Trees (DT). The input dataset of the study contains geomorphological and hydrological factors derived from a digital elevation model with a 10 m resolution, lithological factors derived from a geological map, and anthropogenic factors, such as information on the development stage of the neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa and road density. Moreover, a landslide inventory map that was developed in 2014 through aerial photo interpretation was used as target variable in the analysis. The analysis covers an area of roughly 100 km2, while 8.95 km2 are occupied by landslides. In a first step, the dataset was explored by assessing and improving the data quality, identifying unimportant variables and finding interrelations. Then, based on a training partition of the dataset, the ANN, BN and DT were optimized for the prediction of landslides. The predictive power and ability to generalize of the resulting models were assessed in a test partition and evaluated using success rate curves, skill scores and by ensuring the spatial plausibility of the prediction.

Insights into the phylogeny of Northern Hemisphere Armillaria: Neighbor-net and Bayesian analyses of translation elongation factor 1-α gene sequences

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Jane E. Stewart; Yuko Ota; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ruben D. Elias-Roman; Kari Korhonen; Nenad Keca; Eugenia Iturritxa; Dionicio Alvarado-Rosales; Halvor Solheim; Nicholas J. Brazee; Piotr Lakomy; Michelle R. Cleary; Eri Hasegawa; Taisei Kikuchi; Fortunato Garza-Ocanas; Panaghiotis Tsopelas; Daniel Rigling; Simone Prospero; Tetyana Tsykun; Jean A. Berube; Franck O. P. Stefani; Saeideh Jafarpour; Vladimir Antonin; Michal Tomsovsky; Geral I. McDonald; Stephen Woodward; Mee-Sook Kim

2017-01-01

Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence–based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation...

Improving phylogenetic analyses by incorporating additional information from genetic sequence databases.

PubMed

Liang, Li-Jung; Weiss, Robert E; Redelings, Benjamin; Suchard, Marc A

2009-10-01

Statistical analyses of phylogenetic data culminate in uncertain estimates of underlying model parameters. Lack of additional data hinders the ability to reduce this uncertainty, as the original phylogenetic dataset is often complete, containing the entire gene or genome information available for the given set of taxa. Informative priors in a Bayesian analysis can reduce posterior uncertainty; however, publicly available phylogenetic software specifies vague priors for model parameters by default. We build objective and informative priors using hierarchical random effect models that combine additional datasets whose parameters are not of direct interest but are similar to the analysis of interest. We propose principled statistical methods that permit more precise parameter estimates in phylogenetic analyses by creating informative priors for parameters of interest. Using additional sequence datasets from our lab or public databases, we construct a fully Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical model to combine datasets. A dynamic iteratively reweighted Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm conveniently recycles posterior samples from the individual analyses. We demonstrate the value of our approach by examining the insertion-deletion (indel) process in the enolase gene across the Tree of Life using the phylogenetic software BALI-PHY; we incorporate prior information about indels from 82 curated alignments downloaded from the BAliBASE database.

Genetic and Metabolite Diversity of Sardinian Populations of Helichrysum italicum

PubMed Central

Melito, Sara; Sias, Angela; Petretto, Giacomo L.; Chessa, Mario; Pintore, Giorgio; Porceddu, Andrea

2013-01-01

Background Helichrysum italicum (Asteraceae) is a small shrub endemic to the Mediterranean Basin, growing in fragmented and diverse habitats. The species has attracted attention due to its secondary metabolite content, but little effort has as yet been dedicated to assessing the genetic and metabolite diversity present in these populations. Here, we describe the diversity of 50 H. italicum populations collected from a range of habitats in Sardinia. Methods H. italicum plants were AFLP fingerprinted and the composition of their leaf essential oil characterized by GC-MS. The relationships between the genetic structure of the populations, soil, habitat and climatic variables and the essential oil chemotypes present were evaluated using Bayesian clustering, contingency analyses and AMOVA. Key results The Sardinian germplasm could be partitioned into two AFLP-based clades. Populations collected from the southwestern region constituted a homogeneous group which remained virtually intact even at high levels of K. The second, much larger clade was more diverse. A positive correlation between genetic diversity and elevation suggested the action of natural purifying selection. Four main classes of compounds were identified among the essential oils, namely monoterpenes, oxygenated monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and oxygenated sesquiterpenes. Oxygenated monoterpene levels were significantly correlated with the AFLP-based clade structure, suggesting a correspondence between gene pool and chemical diversity. Conclusions The results suggest an association between chemotype, genetic diversity and collection location which is relevant for the planning of future collections aimed at identifying valuable sources of essential oil. PMID:24260149

Ecological adaptation determines functional mammalian olfactory subgenomes

PubMed Central

Hayden, Sara; Bekaert, Michaël; Crider, Tess A.; Mariani, Stefano; Murphy, William J.; Teeling, Emma C.

2010-01-01

The ability to smell is governed by the largest gene family in mammalian genomes, the olfactory receptor (OR) genes. Although these genes are well annotated in the finished human and mouse genomes, we still do not understand which receptors bind specific odorants or how they fully function. Previous comparative studies have been taxonomically limited and mostly focused on the percentage of OR pseudogenes within species. No study has investigated the adaptive changes of functional OR gene families across phylogenetically and ecologically diverse mammals. To determine the extent to which OR gene repertoires have been influenced by habitat, sensory specialization, and other ecological traits, to better understand the functional importance of specific OR gene families and thus the odorants they bind, we compared the functional OR gene repertoires from 50 mammalian genomes. We amplified more than 2000 OR genes in aquatic, semi-aquatic, and flying mammals and coupled these data with 48,000 OR genes from mostly terrestrial mammals, extracted from genomic projects. Phylogenomic, Bayesian assignment, and principle component analyses partitioned species by ecotype (aquatic, semi-aquatic, terrestrial, flying) rather than phylogenetic relatedness, and identified OR families important for each habitat. Functional OR gene repertoires were reduced independently in the multiple origins of aquatic mammals and were significantly divergent in bats. We reject recent neutralist views of olfactory subgenome evolution and correlate specific OR gene families with physiological requirements, a preliminary step toward unraveling the relationship between specific odors and respective OR gene families. PMID:19952139

Do Bayesian adaptive trials offer advantages for comparative effectiveness research? Protocol for the RE-ADAPT study

PubMed Central

Luce, Bryan R; Broglio, Kristine R; Ishak, K Jack; Mullins, C Daniel; Vanness, David J; Fleurence, Rachael; Saunders, Elijah; Davis, Barry R

2013-01-01

Background Randomized clinical trials, particularly for comparative effectiveness research (CER), are frequently criticized for being overly restrictive or untimely for health-care decision making. Purpose Our prospectively designed REsearch in ADAptive methods for Pragmatic Trials (RE-ADAPT) study is a ‘proof of concept’ to stimulate investment in Bayesian adaptive designs for future CER trials. Methods We will assess whether Bayesian adaptive designs offer potential efficiencies in CER by simulating a re-execution of the Antihypertensive and Lipid Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) study using actual data from ALLHAT. Results We prospectively define seven alternate designs consisting of various combinations of arm dropping, adaptive randomization, and early stopping and describe how these designs will be compared to the original ALLHAT design. We identify the one particular design that would have been executed, which incorporates early stopping and information-based adaptive randomization. Limitations While the simulation realistically emulates patient enrollment, interim analyses, and adaptive changes to design, it cannot incorporate key features like the involvement of data monitoring committee in making decisions about adaptive changes. Conclusion This article describes our analytic approach for RE-ADAPT. The next stage of the project is to conduct the re-execution analyses using the seven prespecified designs and the original ALLHAT data. PMID:23983160

Use of Principal Components Analysis and Kriging to Predict Groundwater-Sourced Rural Drinking Water Quality in Saskatchewan

PubMed Central

McLeod, Lianne; Bharadwaj, Lalita; Epp, Tasha; Waldner, Cheryl L.

2017-01-01

Groundwater drinking water supply surveillance data were accessed to summarize water quality delivered as public and private water supplies in southern Saskatchewan as part of an exposure assessment for epidemiologic analyses of associations between water quality and type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Arsenic in drinking water has been linked to a variety of chronic diseases and previous studies have identified multiple wells with arsenic above the drinking water standard of 0.01 mg/L; therefore, arsenic concentrations were of specific interest. Principal components analysis was applied to obtain principal component (PC) scores to summarize mixtures of correlated parameters identified as health standards and those identified as aesthetic objectives in the Saskatchewan Drinking Water Quality Standards and Objective. Ordinary, universal, and empirical Bayesian kriging were used to interpolate arsenic concentrations and PC scores in southern Saskatchewan, and the results were compared. Empirical Bayesian kriging performed best across all analyses, based on having the greatest number of variables for which the root mean square error was lowest. While all of the kriging methods appeared to underestimate high values of arsenic and PC scores, empirical Bayesian kriging was chosen to summarize large scale geographic trends in groundwater-sourced drinking water quality and assess exposure to mixtures of trace metals and ions. PMID:28914824

Analysis of phase II methodologies for single-arm clinical trials with multiple endpoints in rare cancers: An example in Ewing's sarcoma.

PubMed

Dutton, P; Love, S B; Billingham, L; Hassan, A B

2018-05-01

Trials run in either rare diseases, such as rare cancers, or rare sub-populations of common diseases are challenging in terms of identifying, recruiting and treating sufficient patients in a sensible period. Treatments for rare diseases are often designed for other disease areas and then later proposed as possible treatments for the rare disease after initial phase I testing is complete. To ensure the trial is in the best interests of the patient participants, frequent interim analyses are needed to force the trial to stop promptly if the treatment is futile or toxic. These non-definitive phase II trials should also be stopped for efficacy to accelerate research progress if the treatment proves to be particularly promising. In this paper, we review frequentist and Bayesian methods that have been adapted to incorporate two binary endpoints and frequent interim analyses. The Eurosarc Trial of Linsitinib in advanced Ewing Sarcoma (LINES) is used as a motivating example and provides a suitable platform to compare these approaches. The Bayesian approach provides greater design flexibility, but does not provide additional value over the frequentist approaches in a single trial setting when the prior is non-informative. However, Bayesian designs are able to borrow from any previous experience, using prior information to improve efficiency.

Use of Principal Components Analysis and Kriging to Predict Groundwater-Sourced Rural Drinking Water Quality in Saskatchewan.

PubMed

McLeod, Lianne; Bharadwaj, Lalita; Epp, Tasha; Waldner, Cheryl L

2017-09-15

Groundwater drinking water supply surveillance data were accessed to summarize water quality delivered as public and private water supplies in southern Saskatchewan as part of an exposure assessment for epidemiologic analyses of associations between water quality and type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Arsenic in drinking water has been linked to a variety of chronic diseases and previous studies have identified multiple wells with arsenic above the drinking water standard of 0.01 mg/L; therefore, arsenic concentrations were of specific interest. Principal components analysis was applied to obtain principal component (PC) scores to summarize mixtures of correlated parameters identified as health standards and those identified as aesthetic objectives in the Saskatchewan Drinking Water Quality Standards and Objective. Ordinary, universal, and empirical Bayesian kriging were used to interpolate arsenic concentrations and PC scores in southern Saskatchewan, and the results were compared. Empirical Bayesian kriging performed best across all analyses, based on having the greatest number of variables for which the root mean square error was lowest. While all of the kriging methods appeared to underestimate high values of arsenic and PC scores, empirical Bayesian kriging was chosen to summarize large scale geographic trends in groundwater-sourced drinking water quality and assess exposure to mixtures of trace metals and ions.

Bayesian meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha to evaluate informative hypotheses.

PubMed

Okada, Kensuke

2015-12-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as 'alpha of this test is greater than 0.8' or 'alpha of one form of a test is greater than the others.' The proposed method enables direct evaluation of these informative hypotheses. To this end, a Bayes factor is calculated to evaluate the informative hypothesis against its complement. It allows researchers to summarize the evidence provided by previous studies in favor of their informative hypothesis. The proposed approach can be seen as a natural extension of the Bayesian meta-analysis of coefficient alpha recently proposed in this journal (Brannick and Zhang, 2013). The proposed method is illustrated through two meta-analyses of real data that evaluate different kinds of informative hypotheses on superpopulation: one is that alpha of a particular test is above the criterion value, and the other is that alphas among different test versions have ordered relationships. Informative hypotheses are supported from the data in both cases, suggesting that the proposed approach is promising for application. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Comparison of Japan and U.K. SF-6D Health-State Valuations Using a Non-Parametric Bayesian Method.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Samer A

2015-08-01

There is interest in the extent to which valuations of health may differ between different countries and cultures, but few studies have compared preference values of health states obtained in different countries. We sought to estimate and compare two directly elicited valuations for SF-6D health states between the Japan and U.K. general adult populations using Bayesian methods. We analysed data from two SF-6D valuation studies where, using similar standard gamble protocols, values for 241 and 249 states were elicited from representative samples of the Japan and U.K. general adult populations, respectively. We estimate a function applicable across both countries that explicitly accounts for the differences between them, and is estimated using data from both countries. The results suggest that differences in SF-6D health-state valuations between the Japan and U.K. general populations are potentially important. The magnitude of these country-specific differences in health-state valuation depended, however, in a complex way on the levels of individual dimensions. The new Bayesian non-parametric method is a powerful approach for analysing data from multiple nationalities or ethnic groups, to understand the differences between them and potentially to estimate the underlying utility functions more efficiently.

Hypothesis testing on the fractal structure of behavioral sequences: the Bayesian assessment of scaling methodology.

PubMed

Moscoso del Prado Martín, Fermín

2013-12-01

I introduce the Bayesian assessment of scaling (BAS), a simple but powerful Bayesian hypothesis contrast methodology that can be used to test hypotheses on the scaling regime exhibited by a sequence of behavioral data. Rather than comparing parametric models, as typically done in previous approaches, the BAS offers a direct, nonparametric way to test whether a time series exhibits fractal scaling. The BAS provides a simpler and faster test than do previous methods, and the code for making the required computations is provided. The method also enables testing of finely specified hypotheses on the scaling indices, something that was not possible with the previously available methods. I then present 4 simulation studies showing that the BAS methodology outperforms the other methods used in the psychological literature. I conclude with a discussion of methodological issues on fractal analyses in experimental psychology. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Spatial quantile regression using INLA with applications to childhood overweight in Malawi.

PubMed

Mtambo, Owen P L; Masangwi, Salule J; Kazembe, Lawrence N M

2015-04-01

Analyses of childhood overweight have mainly used mean regression. However, using quantile regression is more appropriate as it provides flexibility to analyse the determinants of overweight corresponding to quantiles of interest. The main objective of this study was to fit a Bayesian additive quantile regression model with structured spatial effects for childhood overweight in Malawi using the 2010 Malawi DHS data. Inference was fully Bayesian using R-INLA package. The significant determinants of childhood overweight ranged from socio-demographic factors such as type of residence to child and maternal factors such as child age and maternal BMI. We observed significant positive structured spatial effects on childhood overweight in some districts of Malawi. We recommended that the childhood malnutrition policy makers should consider timely interventions based on risk factors as identified in this paper including spatial targets of interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Signatures of selection in five Italian cattle breeds detected by a 54K SNP panel.

PubMed

Mancini, Giordano; Gargani, Maria; Chillemi, Giovanni; Nicolazzi, Ezequiel Luis; Marsan, Paolo Ajmone; Valentini, Alessio; Pariset, Lorraine

2014-02-01

In this study we used a medium density panel of SNP markers to perform population genetic analysis in five Italian cattle breeds. The BovineSNP50 BeadChip was used to genotype a total of 2,935 bulls of Piedmontese, Marchigiana, Italian Holstein, Italian Brown and Italian Pezzata Rossa breeds. To determine a genome-wide pattern of positive selection we mapped the F st values against genome location. The highest F st peaks were obtained on BTA6 and BTA13 where some candidate genes are located. We identified selection signatures peculiar of each breed which suggest selection for genes involved in milk or meat traits. The genetic structure was investigated by using a multidimensional scaling of the genetic distance matrix and a Bayesian approach implemented in the STRUCTURE software. The genotyping data showed a clear partitioning of the cattle genetic diversity into distinct breeds if a number of clusters equal to the number of populations were given. Assuming a lower number of clusters beef breeds group together. Both methods showed all five breeds separated in well defined clusters and the Bayesian approach assigned individuals to the breed of origin. The work is of interest not only because it enriches the knowledge on the process of evolution but also because the results generated could have implications for selective breeding programs.

An AI-based communication system for motor and speech disabled persons: design methodology and prototype testing.

PubMed

Sy, B K; Deller, J R

1989-05-01

An intelligent communication device is developed to assist the nonverbal, motor disabled in the generation of written and spoken messages. The device is centered on a knowledge base of the grammatical rules and message elements. A "belief" reasoning scheme based on both the information from external sources and the embedded knowledge is used to optimize the process of message search. The search for the message elements is conceptualized as a path search in the language graph, and a special frame architecture is used to construct and to partition the graph. Bayesian "belief" reasoning from the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is augmented to cope with time-varying evidence. An "information fusion" strategy is also introduced to integrate various forms of external information. Experimental testing of the prototype system is discussed.

Multiple Attribute Group Decision-Making Methods Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Two-Dimensional Linguistic Partitioned Bonferroni Mean Aggregation Operators.

PubMed

Yin, Kedong; Yang, Benshuo; Li, Xuemei

2018-01-24

In this paper, we investigate multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems where decision makers represent their evaluation of alternatives by trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional uncertain linguistic variable. To begin with, we introduce the definition, properties, expectation, operational laws of trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic information. Then, to improve the accuracy of decision making in some case where there are a sort of interrelationship among the attributes, we analyze partition Bonferroni mean (PBM) operator in trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional variable environment and develop two operators: trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic partitioned Bonferroni mean (TF2DLPBM) aggregation operator and trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic weighted partitioned Bonferroni mean (TF2DLWPBM) aggregation operator. Furthermore, we develop a novel method to solve MAGDM problems based on TF2DLWPBM aggregation operator. Finally, a practical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this method and analyses the impact of different parameters on the results of decision-making.

Multiple Attribute Group Decision-Making Methods Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Two-Dimensional Linguistic Partitioned Bonferroni Mean Aggregation Operators

PubMed Central

Yin, Kedong; Yang, Benshuo

2018-01-01

In this paper, we investigate multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems where decision makers represent their evaluation of alternatives by trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional uncertain linguistic variable. To begin with, we introduce the definition, properties, expectation, operational laws of trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic information. Then, to improve the accuracy of decision making in some case where there are a sort of interrelationship among the attributes, we analyze partition Bonferroni mean (PBM) operator in trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional variable environment and develop two operators: trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic partitioned Bonferroni mean (TF2DLPBM) aggregation operator and trapezoidal fuzzy two-dimensional linguistic weighted partitioned Bonferroni mean (TF2DLWPBM) aggregation operator. Furthermore, we develop a novel method to solve MAGDM problems based on TF2DLWPBM aggregation operator. Finally, a practical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this method and analyses the impact of different parameters on the results of decision-making. PMID:29364849

Coexistence of three sympatric cormorants (Phalacrocorax spp.); partitioning of time as an ecological resource

PubMed Central

Mahendiran, Mylswamy

2016-01-01

Resource partitioning is well known along food and habitat for reducing competition among sympatric species, yet a study on temporal partitioning as a viable basis for reducing resource competition is not empirically investigated. Here, I attempt to identify the mechanism of temporal partitioning by intra- and interspecific diving analyses of three sympatric cormorant species at different freshwater wetlands around the Delhi region. Diving results indicated that cormorants opted for a shallow diving; consequently, they did not face any physiological stress. Moreover, diving durations were linked with seasons, foraging time and foraging habitats. Intraspecific comparison suggested that cormorants spent a longer time underwater in early hours of the day. Therefore, time spent for dive was higher in the forenoon than late afternoon, and the interspecific analysis also yielded a similar result. When Phalacrocorax niger and Phalacrocorax fuscicollis shared the same foraging habitat, they tended to differ in their foraging time (forenoon/afternoon). However, when P. niger and Phalacrocorax carbo shared the same foraging time, they tended to use different foraging habitats (lentic/lotic) leading to a mechanism of resource partitioning. Thus, sympatric cormorants effectively use time as a resource to exploit the food resources and successful coexistence. PMID:27293799

Empirical Bayes estimation of proportions with application to cowbird parasitism rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Hahn, D.C.

1996-01-01

Bayesian models provide a structure for studying collections of parameters such as are considered in the investigation of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes. This structure allows for improved estimation of individual parameters, by considering them in the context of a group of related parameters. Individual estimates are differentially adjusted toward an overall mean, with the magnitude of their adjustment based on their precision. Consequently, Bayesian estimation allows for a more credible identification of extreme values in a collection of estimates. Bayesian models regard individual parameters as values sampled from a specified probability distribution, called a prior. The requirement that the prior be known is often regarded as an unattractive feature of Bayesian analysis and may be the reason why Bayesian analyses are not frequently applied in ecological studies. Empirical Bayes methods provide an alternative approach that incorporates the structural advantages of Bayesian models while requiring a less stringent specification of prior knowledge. Rather than requiring that the prior distribution be known, empirical Bayes methods require only that it be in a certain family of distributions, indexed by hyperparameters that can be estimated from the available data. This structure is of interest per se, in addition to its value in allowing for improved estimation of individual parameters; for example, hypotheses regarding the existence of distinct subgroups in a collection of parameters can be considered under the empirical Bayes framework by allowing the hyperparameters to vary among subgroups. Though empirical Bayes methods have been applied in a variety of contexts, they have received little attention in the ecological literature. We describe the empirical Bayes approach in application to estimation of proportions, using data obtained in a community-wide study of cowbird parasitism rates for illustration. Since observed proportions based on small sample sizes are heavily adjusted toward the mean, extreme values among empirical Bayes estimates identify those species for which there is the greatest evidence of extreme parasitism rates. Applying a subgroup analysis to our data on cowbird parasitism rates, we conclude that parasitism rates for Neotropical Migrants as a group are no greater than those of Resident/Short-distance Migrant species in this forest community. Our data and analyses demonstrate that the parasitism rates for certain Neotropical Migrant species are remarkably low (Wood Thrush and Rose-breasted Grosbeak) while those for others are remarkably high (Ovenbird and Red-eyed Vireo).

Metatranscriptome analyses indicate resource partitioning between diatoms in the field.

PubMed

Alexander, Harriet; Jenkins, Bethany D; Rynearson, Tatiana A; Dyhrman, Sonya T

2015-04-28

Diverse communities of marine phytoplankton carry out half of global primary production. The vast diversity of the phytoplankton has long perplexed ecologists because these organisms coexist in an isotropic environment while competing for the same basic resources (e.g., inorganic nutrients). Differential niche partitioning of resources is one hypothesis to explain this "paradox of the plankton," but it is difficult to quantify and track variation in phytoplankton metabolism in situ. Here, we use quantitative metatranscriptome analyses to examine pathways of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) metabolism in diatoms that cooccur regularly in an estuary on the east coast of the United States (Narragansett Bay). Expression of known N and P metabolic pathways varied between diatoms, indicating apparent differences in resource utilization capacity that may prevent direct competition. Nutrient amendment incubations skewed N/P ratios, elucidating nutrient-responsive patterns of expression and facilitating a quantitative comparison between diatoms. The resource-responsive (RR) gene sets deviated in composition from the metabolic profile of the organism, being enriched in genes associated with N and P metabolism. Expression of the RR gene set varied over time and differed significantly between diatoms, resulting in opposite transcriptional responses to the same environment. Apparent differences in metabolic capacity and the expression of that capacity in the environment suggest that diatom-specific resource partitioning was occurring in Narragansett Bay. This high-resolution approach highlights the molecular underpinnings of diatom resource utilization and how cooccurring diatoms adjust their cellular physiology to partition their niche space.

Specialist and generalist symbionts show counterintuitive levels of genetic diversity and discordant demographic histories along the Florida Reef Tract

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titus, Benjamin M.; Daly, Marymegan

2017-03-01

Specialist and generalist life histories are expected to result in contrasting levels of genetic diversity at the population level, and symbioses are expected to lead to patterns that reflect a shared biogeographic history and co-diversification. We test these assumptions using mtDNA sequencing and a comparative phylogeographic approach for six co-occurring crustacean species that are symbiotic with sea anemones on western Atlantic coral reefs, yet vary in their host specificities: four are host specialists and two are host generalists. We first conducted species discovery analyses to delimit cryptic lineages, followed by classic population genetic diversity analyses for each delimited taxon, and then reconstructed the demographic history for each taxon using traditional summary statistics, Bayesian skyline plots, and approximate Bayesian computation to test for signatures of recent and concerted population expansion. The genetic diversity values recovered here contravene the expectations of the specialist-generalist variation hypothesis and classic population genetics theory; all specialist lineages had greater genetic diversity than generalists. Demography suggests recent population expansions in all taxa, although Bayesian skyline plots and approximate Bayesian computation suggest the timing and magnitude of these events were idiosyncratic. These results do not meet the a priori expectation of concordance among symbiotic taxa and suggest that intrinsic aspects of species biology may contribute more to phylogeographic history than extrinsic forces that shape whole communities. The recovery of two cryptic specialist lineages adds an additional layer of biodiversity to this symbiosis and contributes to an emerging pattern of cryptic speciation in the specialist taxa. Our results underscore the differences in the evolutionary processes acting on marine systems from the terrestrial processes that often drive theory. Finally, we continue to highlight the Florida Reef Tract as an important biodiversity hotspot.

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region

PubMed Central

Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T.; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J.

2013-01-01

Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide. PMID:23805195

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region.

PubMed

Alfonso-Morales, Abdulahi; Martínez-Pérez, Orlando; Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J

2013-01-01

Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.

Clinopyroxene-melt element partitioning during interaction between trachybasaltic magma and siliceous crust: Clues from quartzite enclaves at Mt. Etna volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mollo, S.; Blundy, J. D.; Giacomoni, P.; Nazzari, M.; Scarlato, P.; Coltorti, M.; Langone, A.; Andronico, D.

2017-07-01

A peculiar characteristic of the paroxysmal sequence that occurred on March 16, 2013 at the New South East Crater of Mt. Etna volcano (eastern Sicily, Italy) was the eruption of siliceous crustal xenoliths representative of the sedimentary basement beneath the volcanic edifice. These xenoliths are quartzites that occur as subspherical bombs enclosed in a thin trachybasaltic lava envelope. At the quartzite-magma interface a reaction corona develops due to the interaction between the Etnean trachybasaltic magma and the partially melted quartzite. Three distinct domains are observed: (i) the trachybasaltic lava itself (Zone 1), including Al-rich clinopyroxene phenocrysts dispersed in a matrix glass, (ii) the hybrid melt (Zone 2), developing at the quartzite-magma interface and feeding the growth of newly-formed Al-poor clinopyroxenes, and (iii) the partially melted quartzite (Zone 3), producing abundant siliceous melt. These features makes it possible to quantify the effect of magma contamination by siliceous crust in terms of clinopyroxene-melt element partitioning. Major and trace element partition coefficients have been calculated using the compositions of clinopyroxene rims and glasses next to the crystal surface. Zone 1 and Zone 2 partition coefficients correspond to, respectively, the chemical analyses of Al-rich phenocrysts and matrix glasses, and the chemical analyses of newly-formed Al-poor crystals and hybrid glasses. For clinopyroxenes from both the hybrid layer and the lava flow expected relationships are observed between the partition coefficient, the valence of the element, and the ionic radius. However, with respect to Zone 1 partition coefficients, values of Zone 2 partition coefficients show a net decrease for transition metals (TE), high-field strength elements (HFSE) and rare earth elements including yttrium (REE + Y), and an increase for large ion lithophile elements (LILE). This variation is associated with coupled substitutions on the M1, M2 and T sites of the type M1(Al, Fe3 +) + TAl = M2(Mg, Fe2 +) + TSi. The different incorporation of trace elements into clinopyroxenes of hybrid origin is controlled by cation substitution reactions reflecting local charge-balance requirements. According to the lattice strain theory, simultaneous cation exchanges across the M1, M2, and T sites have profound effects on REE + Y and HFSE partitioning. Conversely, both temperature and melt composition have only a minor effect when the thermal path of magma is restricted to 70 °C and the value of non-bridging oxygens per tetrahedral cations (NBO/T) shifts moderately from 0.31 to 0.43. As a consequence, Zone 2 partition coefficients for REE + Y and HFSE diverge significantly from those derived for Zone 1, accounting for limited cation incorporation into the newly-formed clinopyroxenes at the quartzite-magma interface.

Investigation of the seismic resistance of interior building partitions, phase 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, R. W.; Yee, Y. C.; Savulian, G.; Barclay, B.; Lee, G.

1981-02-01

The effective participation of wood-framed interior shear wall partitions when determining the ultimate resistance capacity of two- and three-story masonry apartment buildings to seismic loading was investigated. Load vs. deflection tests were performed on 8 ft by 8 ft wall panel specimens constructed of four different facing materials, including wood lath and plaster, gypsum lath and plaster, and gypsum wallboard with joints placed either horizontally or vertically. The wood lath and plaster construction is found to be significantly stronger and stiffer than the other three specimens. Analyses of the test panels using finite element methods to predict their static resistance characteristics indicates that the facing material acts as the primary shear-resisting structural element. Resistance of shear wall partitions to lateral loads was assessed.

Additive partitioning of testate amoeba species diversity across habitat hierarchy within the pristine southern taiga landscape (Pechora-Ilych Biosphere Reserve, Russia).

PubMed

Tsyganov, Andrey N; Komarov, Alexander A; Mitchell, Edward A D; Shimano, Satoshi; Smirnova, Olga V; Aleynikov, Alexey A; Mazei, Yuri A

2015-02-01

In order to better understand the distribution patterns of terrestrial eukaryotic microbes and the factors governing them, we studied the diversity partitioning of soil testate amoebae across levels of spatially nested habitat hierarchy in the largest European old-growth dark coniferous forest (Pechora-Ilych Biosphere Reserve; Komi Republic, Russia). The variation in testate amoeba species richness and assemblage structure was analysed in 87 samples from six biotopes in six vegetation types using an additive partitioning procedure and principal component analyses. The 80 taxa recorded represent the highest value of species richness for soil testate amoebae reported for taiga soils so far. Our results indicate that testate amoeba assemblages were highly aggregated at all levels and were mostly controlled by environmental factors rather than dispersal processes. The variation in species diversity of testate amoebae increased from the lowest to the highest hierarchical level. We conclude that, similarly to macroscopic organisms, testate amoeba species richness and community structure are primarily controlled by environmental conditions within the landscape and suggest that metacommunity dynamics of free-living microorganisms are driven by species sorting and/or mass effect processes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Genotypic distribution of a specialist model microorganism, Methanosaeta, along an estuarine gradient: does metabolic restriction limit niche differentiation potential?

PubMed

Carbonero, Franck; Oakley, Brian B; Hawkins, Robert J; Purdy, Kevin J

2012-05-01

A reductionist ecological approach of using a model genus was adopted in order to understand how microbial community structure is driven by metabolic properties. The distribution along an estuarine gradient of the highly specialised genus Methanosaeta was investigated and compared to the previously determined distribution of the more metabolically flexible Desulfobulbus. Methanosaeta genotypic distribution along the Colne estuary (Essex, UK) was determined by DNA- and RNA-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses. Methanosaeta distribution was monotonic, with a consistently diverse community and no apparent niche partitioning either in DNA or RNA analyses. This distribution pattern contrasts markedly with the previously described niche partitioning and sympatric differentiation of the model generalist, Desulfobulbus. To explain this difference, it is hypothesised that Methanosaeta's strict metabolic needs limit its adaptation potential, thus populations do not partition into spatially distinct groups and so do not appear to be constrained by gross environmental factors such as salinity. Thus, at least for these two model genera, it appears that metabolic flexibility may be an important factor in spatial distribution and this may be applicable to other microbes.

Deformation Partitioning: The Missing Link Between Outcrop-Scale Observations And Orogen-Scale Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attia, S.; Paterson, S. R.; Jiang, D.; Miller, R. B.

2017-12-01

Structural studies of orogenic deformation fields are mostly based on small-scale structures ubiquitous in field exposures, hand samples, and under microscopes. Relating deformation histories derived from such structures to changing lithospheric-scale deformation and boundary conditions is not trivial due to vast scale separation (10-6 107 m) between characteristic lengths of small-scale structures and lithospheric plates. Rheological heterogeneity over the range of orogenic scales will lead to deformation partitioning throughout intervening scales of structural development. Spectacular examples of structures documenting deformation partitioning are widespread within hot (i.e., magma-rich) orogens such as the well-studied central Sierra Nevada and Cascades core of western North America: (1) deformation partitioned into localized, narrow, triclinic shear zones separated by broad domains of distributed pure shear at micro- to 10 km scales; (2) deformation partitioned between plutons and surrounding metamorphic host rocks as shown by pluton-wide magmatic fabrics consistently oriented differently than coeval host rock fabrics; (3) partitioning recorded by different fabric intensities, styles, and orientations established from meter-scale grid mapping to 100 km scale domainal analyses; and (4) variations in the causes of strain and kinematics within fold-dominated domains. These complex, partitioned histories require synthesized mapping, geochronology, and structural data at all scales to evaluate partitioning and in the absence of correct scaling can lead to incorrect interpretations of histories. Forward modeling capable of addressing deformation partitioning in materials containing multiple scales of rheologically heterogeneous elements of varying characteristic lengths provides the ability to upscale the large synthesized datasets described above to plate-scale tectonic processes and boundary conditions. By comparing modeling predictions from the recently developed self-consistent Multi-Order Power-Law Approach (MOPLA) to multi-scale field observations, we constrain likely paleo-tectonic controls of orogenic structural evolution rather than predicting a unique, but likely incorrect deformation history.

High Throughput Analyses of Budding Yeast ARSs Reveal New DNA Elements Capable of Conferring Centromere-Independent Plasmid Propagation

PubMed Central

Hoggard, Timothy; Liachko, Ivan; Burt, Cassaundra; Meikle, Troy; Jiang, Katherine; Craciun, Gheorghe; Dunham, Maitreya J.; Fox, Catherine A.

2016-01-01

The ability of plasmids to propagate in Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been instrumental in defining eukaryotic chromosomal control elements. Stable propagation demands both plasmid replication, which requires a chromosomal replication origin (i.e., an ARS), and plasmid distribution to dividing cells, which requires either a chromosomal centromere for segregation or a plasmid-partitioning element. While our knowledge of yeast ARSs and centromeres is relatively advanced, we know less about chromosomal regions that can function as plasmid partitioning elements. The Rap1 protein-binding site (RAP1) present in transcriptional silencers and telomeres of budding yeast is a known plasmid-partitioning element that functions to anchor a plasmid to the inner nuclear membrane (INM), which in turn facilitates plasmid distribution to daughter cells. This Rap1-dependent INM-anchoring also has an important chromosomal role in higher-order chromosomal structures that enhance transcriptional silencing and telomere stability. Thus, plasmid partitioning can reflect fundamental features of chromosome structure and biology, yet a systematic screen for plasmid partitioning elements has not been reported. Here, we couple deep sequencing with competitive growth experiments of a plasmid library containing thousands of short ARS fragments to identify new plasmid partitioning elements. Competitive growth experiments were performed with libraries that differed only in terms of the presence or absence of a centromere. Comparisons of the behavior of ARS fragments in the two experiments allowed us to identify sequences that were likely to drive plasmid partitioning. In addition to the silencer RAP1 site, we identified 74 new putative plasmid-partitioning motifs predicted to act as binding sites for DNA binding proteins enriched for roles in negative regulation of gene expression and G2/M-phase associated biology. These data expand our knowledge of chromosomal elements that may function in plasmid partitioning and suggest underlying biological roles shared by such elements. PMID:26865697

Suggestions for presenting the results of data analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, David R.; Link, William A.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

2001-01-01

We give suggestions for the presentation of research results from frequentist, information-theoretic, and Bayesian analysis paradigms, followed by several general suggestions. The information-theoretic and Bayesian methods offer alternative approaches to data analysis and inference compared to traditionally used methods. Guidance is lacking on the presentation of results under these alternative procedures and on nontesting aspects of classical frequentists methods of statistical analysis. Null hypothesis testing has come under intense criticism. We recommend less reporting of the results of statistical tests of null hypotheses in cases where the null is surely false anyway, or where the null hypothesis is of little interest to science or management.

Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

PubMed

Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

2018-02-01

We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular importance for evolutionary biologists and plant breeders, hierarchical Bayesian models estimating FVT parameters improve heritabilities compared to frequentist approaches.

Analysis of phase II methodologies for single-arm clinical trials with multiple endpoints in rare cancers: An example in Ewing’s sarcoma

PubMed Central

Dutton, P; Love, SB; Billingham, L; Hassan, AB

2016-01-01

Trials run in either rare diseases, such as rare cancers, or rare sub-populations of common diseases are challenging in terms of identifying, recruiting and treating sufficient patients in a sensible period. Treatments for rare diseases are often designed for other disease areas and then later proposed as possible treatments for the rare disease after initial phase I testing is complete. To ensure the trial is in the best interests of the patient participants, frequent interim analyses are needed to force the trial to stop promptly if the treatment is futile or toxic. These non-definitive phase II trials should also be stopped for efficacy to accelerate research progress if the treatment proves to be particularly promising. In this paper, we review frequentist and Bayesian methods that have been adapted to incorporate two binary endpoints and frequent interim analyses. The Eurosarc Trial of Linsitinib in advanced Ewing Sarcoma (LINES) is used as a motivating example and provides a suitable platform to compare these approaches. The Bayesian approach provides greater design flexibility, but does not provide additional value over the frequentist approaches in a single trial setting when the prior is non-informative. However, Bayesian designs are able to borrow from any previous experience, using prior information to improve efficiency. PMID:27587590

Bayesian assessment of overtriage and undertriage at a level I trauma centre.

PubMed

DiDomenico, Paul B; Pietzsch, Jan B; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

2008-07-13

We analysed the trauma triage system at a specific level I trauma centre to assess rates of over- and undertriage and to support recommendations for system improvements. The triage process is designed to estimate the severity of patient injury and allocate resources accordingly, with potential errors of overestimation (overtriage) consuming excess resources and underestimation (undertriage) potentially leading to medical errors.We first modelled the overall trauma system using risk analysis methods to understand interdependencies among the actions of the participants. We interviewed six experienced trauma surgeons to obtain their expert opinion of the over- and undertriage rates occurring in the trauma centre. We then assessed actual over- and undertriage rates in a random sample of 86 trauma cases collected over a six-week period at the same centre. We employed Bayesian analysis to quantitatively combine the data with the prior probabilities derived from expert opinion in order to obtain posterior distributions. The results were estimates of overtriage and undertriage in 16.1 and 4.9% of patients, respectively. This Bayesian approach, which provides a quantitative assessment of the error rates using both case data and expert opinion, provides a rational means of obtaining a best estimate of the system's performance. The overall approach that we describe in this paper can be employed more widely to analyse complex health care delivery systems, with the objective of reduced errors, patient risk and excess costs.

Analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the wind speed prediction during extreme storms in the NE U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Delle Monache, L.; Alessandrini, S.

2016-12-01

Accuracy of weather forecasts in Northeast U.S. has become very important in recent years, given the serious and devastating effects of extreme weather events. Despite the use of evolved forecasting tools and techniques strengthened by increased super-computing resources, the weather forecasting systems still have their limitations in predicting extreme events. In this study, we examine the combination of analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the prediction of storms that have impacted NE U.S., mostly defined by the occurrence of high wind speeds (i.e. blizzards, winter storms, hurricanes and thunderstorms). The predicted wind speed, wind direction and temperature by two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) are combined using the mentioned techniques, exploring various ways that those variables influence the minimization of the prediction error (systematic and random). This study is focused on retrospective simulations of 146 storms that affected the NE U.S. in the period 2005-2016. In order to evaluate the techniques, leave-one-out cross validation procedure was implemented regarding 145 storms as the training dataset. The analog ensemble method selects a set of past observations that corresponded to the best analogs of the numerical weather prediction and provides a set of ensemble members of the selected observation dataset. The set of ensemble members can then be used in a deterministic or probabilistic way. In the Bayesian regression framework, optimal variances are estimated for the training partition by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to the out-of-sample storm. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of 10-m wind speed for 146 storms using both techniques (20-30% bias and error reduction in all observation-model pairs). In this presentation, we discuss the various combinations of atmospheric predictors and techniques and illustrate how the long record of predicted storms is valuable in the improvement of wind speed prediction.

Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology

Treesearch

Brian Bekcage; Lawrence Joseph; Patrick Belisle; David B. Wolfson; William J. Platt

2007-01-01

Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing.

Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

PubMed

Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2018-05-01

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Specimen-level phylogenetics in paleontology using the Fossilized Birth-Death model with sampled ancestors.

PubMed

Cau, Andrea

2017-01-01

Bayesian phylogenetic methods integrating simultaneously morphological and stratigraphic information have been applied increasingly among paleontologists. Most of these studies have used Bayesian methods as an alternative to the widely-used parsimony analysis, to infer macroevolutionary patterns and relationships among species-level or higher taxa. Among recently introduced Bayesian methodologies, the Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) model allows incorporation of hypotheses on ancestor-descendant relationships in phylogenetic analyses including fossil taxa. Here, the FBD model is used to infer the relationships among an ingroup formed exclusively by fossil individuals, i.e., dipnoan tooth plates from four localities in the Ain el Guettar Formation of Tunisia. Previous analyses of this sample compared the results of phylogenetic analysis using parsimony with stratigraphic methods, inferred a high diversity (five or more genera) in the Ain el Guettar Formation, and interpreted it as an artifact inflated by depositional factors. In the analysis performed here, the uncertainty on the chronostratigraphic relationships among the specimens was included among the prior settings. The results of the analysis confirm the referral of most of the specimens to the taxa Asiatoceratodus , Equinoxiodus, Lavocatodus and Neoceratodus , but reject those to Ceratodus and Ferganoceratodus . The resulting phylogeny constrained the evolution of the Tunisian sample exclusively in the Early Cretaceous, contrasting with the previous scenario inferred by the stratigraphically-calibrated topology resulting from parsimony analysis. The phylogenetic framework also suggests that (1) the sampled localities are laterally equivalent, (2) but three localities are restricted to the youngest part of the section; both results are in agreement with previous stratigraphic analyses of these localities. The FBD model of specimen-level units provides a novel tool for phylogenetic inference among fossils but also for independent tests of stratigraphic scenarios.

Divergent evapotranspiration partition dynamics between shrubs and grasses in a shrub-encroached steppe ecosystem.

PubMed

Wang, Pei; Li, Xiao-Yan; Wang, Lixin; Wu, Xiuchen; Hu, Xia; Fan, Ying; Tong, Yaqin

2018-06-04

Previous evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning studies have usually neglected competitions and interactions between antagonistic plant functional types. This study investigated whether shrubs and grasses have divergent ET partition dynamics impacted by different water-use patterns, canopy structures, and physiological properties in a shrub-encroached steppe ecosystem in Inner Mongolia, China. The soil water-use patterns of shrubs and grasses have been quantified by an isotopic tracing approach and coupled into an improved multisource energy balance model to partition ET fluxes into soil evaporation, grass transpiration, and shrub transpiration. The mean fractional contributions to total ET were 24 ± 13%, 20 ± 4%, and 56 ± 16% for shrub transpiration, grass transpiration, and soil evaporation respectively during the growing season. Difference in ecohydrological connectivity and leaf development both contributed to divergent transpiration partitioning between shrubs and grasses. Shrub-encroachment processes result in larger changes in the ET components than in total ET flux, which could be well explained by changes in canopy resistance, an ecosystem function dominated by the interaction of soil water-use patterns and ecosystem structure. The analyses presented here highlight the crucial effects of vegetation structural changes on the processes of land-atmosphere interaction and climate feedback. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Can texture analysis of tooth microwear detect within guild niche partitioning in extinct species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purnell, Mark; Nedza, Christopher; Rychlik, Leszek

2017-04-01

Recent work shows that tooth microwear analysis can be applied further back in time and deeper into the phylogenetic history of vertebrate clades than previously thought (e.g. niche partitioning in early Jurassic insectivorous mammals; Gill et al., 2014, Nature). Furthermore, quantitative approaches to analysis based on parameterization of surface roughness are increasing the robustness and repeatability of this widely used dietary proxy. Discriminating between taxa within dietary guilds has the potential to significantly increase our ability to determine resource use and partitioning in fossil vertebrates, but how sensitive is the technique? To address this question we analysed tooth microwear texture in sympatric populations of shrew species (Neomys fodiens, Neomys anomalus, Sorex araneus, Sorex minutus) from BiaŁ owieza Forest, Poland. These populations are known to exhibit varying degrees of niche partitioning (Churchfield & Rychlik, 2006, J. Zool.) with greatest overlap between the Neomys species. Sorex araneus also exhibits some niche overlap with N. anomalus, while S. minutus is the most specialised. Multivariate analysis based only on tooth microwear textures recovers the same pattern of niche partitioning. Our results also suggest that tooth textures track seasonal differences in diet. Projecting data from fossils into the multivariate dietary space defined using microwear from extant taxa demonstrates that the technique is capable of subtle dietary discrimination in extinct insectivores.

Modeling of adipose/blood partition coefficient for environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Papadaki, K C; Karakitsios, S P; Sarigiannis, D A

2017-12-01

A Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) model was developed in order to predict the adipose/blood partition coefficient of environmental chemical compounds. The first step of QSAR modeling was the collection of inputs. Input data included the experimental values of adipose/blood partition coefficient and two sets of molecular descriptors for 67 organic chemical compounds; a) the descriptors from Linear Free Energy Relationship (LFER) and b) the PaDEL descriptors. The datasets were split to training and prediction set and were analysed using two statistical methods; Genetic Algorithm based Multiple Linear Regression (GA-MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The models with LFER and PaDEL descriptors, coupled with ANN, produced satisfying performance results. The fitting performance (R 2 ) of the models, using LFER and PaDEL descriptors, was 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. The Applicability Domain (AD) of the models was assessed and then the models were applied to a large number of chemical compounds with unknown values of adipose/blood partition coefficient. In conclusion, the proposed models were checked for fitting, validity and applicability. It was demonstrated that they are stable, reliable and capable to predict the values of adipose/blood partition coefficient of "data poor" chemical compounds that fall within the applicability domain. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Method for Retrieving Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Imager Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, William J.

2009-01-01

A general theory for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in N lightning observed by a satellite-based lightning imager is provided. An "exponential model" is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured optical parameter distributions, and population statistics (i.e., mean, variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The retrieval itself is expressed in terms of a Bayesian inference, and the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is obtained. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The ability to retrieve ground flash fraction has important benefits to the atmospheric chemistry community. For example, using the method to partition the existing satellite global lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash climatologies will improve estimates of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx) production; this in turn will improve both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate model predictions.

Rule groupings in expert systems using nearest neighbour decision rules, and convex hulls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anastasiadis, Stergios

1991-01-01

Expert System shells are lacking in many areas of software engineering. Large rule based systems are not semantically comprehensible, difficult to debug, and impossible to modify or validate. Partitioning a set of rules found in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) into groups of rules which reflect the underlying semantic subdomains of the problem, will address adequately the concerns stated above. Techniques are introduced to structure a CLIPS rule base into groups of rules that inherently have common semantic information. The concepts involved are imported from the field of A.I., Pattern Recognition, and Statistical Inference. Techniques focus on the areas of feature selection, classification, and a criteria of how 'good' the classification technique is, based on Bayesian Decision Theory. A variety of distance metrics are discussed for measuring the 'closeness' of CLIPS rules and various Nearest Neighbor classification algorithms are described based on the above metric.

Origin and Diversification of Major Clades in Parmelioid Lichens (Parmeliaceae, Ascomycota) during the Paleogene Inferred by Bayesian Analysis

PubMed Central

Amo de Paz, Guillermo; Cubas, Paloma; Divakar, Pradeep K.; Lumbsch, H. Thorsten; Crespo, Ana

2011-01-01

There is a long-standing debate on the extent of vicariance and long-distance dispersal events to explain the current distribution of organisms, especially in those with small diaspores potentially prone to long-distance dispersal. Age estimates of clades play a crucial role in evaluating the impact of these processes. The aim of this study is to understand the evolutionary history of the largest clade of macrolichens, the parmelioid lichens (Parmeliaceae, Lecanoromycetes, Ascomycota) by dating the origin of the group and its major lineages. They have a worldwide distribution with centers of distribution in the Neo- and Paleotropics, and semi-arid subtropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using DNA sequences of nuLSU and mtSSU rDNA, and the protein-coding RPB1 gene. The three DNA regions had different evolutionary rates: RPB1 gave a rate two to four times higher than nuLSU and mtSSU. Divergence times of the major clades were estimated with partitioned BEAST analyses allowing different rates for each DNA region and using a relaxed clock model. Three calibrations points were used to date the tree: an inferred age at the stem of Lecanoromycetes, and two dated fossils: Parmelia in the parmelioid group, and Alectoria. Palaeoclimatic conditions and the palaeogeological area cladogram were compared to the dated phylogeny of parmelioid. The parmelioid group diversified around the K/T boundary, and the major clades diverged during the Eocene and Oligocene. The radiation of the genera occurred through globally changing climatic condition of the early Oligocene, Miocene and early Pliocene. The estimated divergence times are consistent with long-distance dispersal events being the major factor to explain the biogeographical distribution patterns of Southern Hemisphere parmelioids, especially for Africa-Australia disjunctions, because the sequential break-up of Gondwana started much earlier than the origin of these clades. However, our data cannot reject vicariance to explain South America-Australia disjunctions. PMID:22174775

Multivariate Bayesian analysis of Gaussian, right censored Gaussian, ordered categorical and binary traits using Gibbs sampling

PubMed Central

Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sorensen, Daniel; Gianola, Daniel; Madsen, Per; Jensen, Just

2003-01-01

A fully Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling and data augmentation in a multivariate model of Gaussian, right censored, and grouped Gaussian traits is described. The grouped Gaussian traits are either ordered categorical traits (with more than two categories) or binary traits, where the grouping is determined via thresholds on the underlying Gaussian scale, the liability scale. Allowances are made for unequal models, unknown covariance matrices and missing data. Having outlined the theory, strategies for implementation are reviewed. These include joint sampling of location parameters; efficient sampling from the fully conditional posterior distribution of augmented data, a multivariate truncated normal distribution; and sampling from the conditional inverse Wishart distribution, the fully conditional posterior distribution of the residual covariance matrix. Finally, a simulated dataset was analysed to illustrate the methodology. This paper concentrates on a model where residuals associated with liabilities of the binary traits are assumed to be independent. A Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling is outlined for the model where this assumption is relaxed. PMID:12633531

A Bayesian account of quantum histories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marlow, Thomas

2006-05-15

We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistentmore » with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory.« less

Real-time prediction of acute cardiovascular events using hardware-implemented Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Tylman, Wojciech; Waszyrowski, Tomasz; Napieralski, Andrzej; Kamiński, Marek; Trafidło, Tamara; Kulesza, Zbigniew; Kotas, Rafał; Marciniak, Paweł; Tomala, Radosław; Wenerski, Maciej

2016-02-01

This paper presents a decision support system that aims to estimate a patient׳s general condition and detect situations which pose an immediate danger to the patient׳s health or life. The use of this system might be especially important in places such as accident and emergency departments or admission wards, where a small medical team has to take care of many patients in various general conditions. Particular stress is laid on cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions, including those leading to sudden cardiac arrest. The proposed system is a stand-alone microprocessor-based device that works in conjunction with a standard vital signs monitor, which provides input signals such as temperature, blood pressure, pulseoxymetry, ECG, and ICG. The signals are preprocessed and analysed by a set of artificial intelligence algorithms, the core of which is based on Bayesian networks. The paper focuses on the construction and evaluation of the Bayesian network, both its structure and numerical specification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in Mortality among Heroin, Cocaine, and Methamphetamine Users: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Liang, Li-Jung; Huang, David; Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Hser, Yih-ing

2010-01-01

Studies examining differences in mortality among long-term drug users have been limited. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework that jointly models survival data using a Weibull proportional hazard model with frailty, and substance and alcohol data using mixed-effects models, to examine differences in mortality among heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine users from five long-term follow-up studies. The traditional approach to analyzing combined survival data from numerous studies assumes that the studies are homogeneous, thus the estimates may be biased due to unobserved heterogeneity among studies. Our approach allows us to structurally combine the data from different studies while accounting for correlation among subjects within each study. Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitates the implementation of Bayesian analyses. Despite the complexity of the model, our approach is relatively straightforward to implement using WinBUGS. We demonstrate our joint modeling approach to the combined data and discuss the results from both approaches. PMID:21052518

Convergence among cave catfishes: long-branch attraction and a Bayesian relative rates test.

PubMed

Wilcox, T P; García de León, F J; Hendrickson, D A; Hillis, D M

2004-06-01

Convergence has long been of interest to evolutionary biologists. Cave organisms appear to be ideal candidates for studying convergence in morphological, physiological, and developmental traits. Here we report apparent convergence in two cave-catfishes that were described on morphological grounds as congeners: Prietella phreatophila and Prietella lundbergi. We collected mitochondrial DNA sequence data from 10 species of catfishes, representing five of the seven genera in Ictaluridae, as well as seven species from a broad range of siluriform outgroups. Analysis of the sequence data under parsimony supports a monophyletic Prietella. However, both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian analyses support polyphyly of the genus, with P. lundbergi sister to Ictalurus and P. phreatophila sister to Ameiurus. The topological difference between parsimony and the other methods appears to result from long-branch attraction between the Prietella species. Similarly, the sequence data do not support several other relationships within Ictaluridae supported by morphology. We develop a new Bayesian method for examining variation in molecular rates of evolution across a phylogeny.

Bayesian decoding using unsorted spikes in the rat hippocampus

PubMed Central

Layton, Stuart P.; Chen, Zhe; Wilson, Matthew A.

2013-01-01

A fundamental task in neuroscience is to understand how neural ensembles represent information. Population decoding is a useful tool to extract information from neuronal populations based on the ensemble spiking activity. We propose a novel Bayesian decoding paradigm to decode unsorted spikes in the rat hippocampus. Our approach uses a direct mapping between spike waveform features and covariates of interest and avoids accumulation of spike sorting errors. Our decoding paradigm is nonparametric, encoding model-free for representing stimuli, and extracts information from all available spikes and their waveform features. We apply the proposed Bayesian decoding algorithm to a position reconstruction task for freely behaving rats based on tetrode recordings of rat hippocampal neuronal activity. Our detailed decoding analyses demonstrate that our approach is efficient and better utilizes the available information in the nonsortable hash than the standard sorting-based decoding algorithm. Our approach can be adapted to an online encoding/decoding framework for applications that require real-time decoding, such as brain-machine interfaces. PMID:24089403

Niche Partitioning of Feather Mites within a Seabird Host, Calonectris borealis

PubMed Central

Stefan, Laura M.; Gómez-Díaz, Elena; Elguero, Eric; Proctor, Heather C.; McCoy, Karen D.; González-Solís, Jacob

2015-01-01

According to classic niche theory, species can coexist in heterogeneous environments by reducing interspecific competition via niche partitioning, e.g. trophic or spatial partitioning. However, support for the role of competition on niche partitioning remains controversial. Here, we tested for spatial and trophic partitioning in feather mites, a diverse and abundant group of arthropods. We focused on the two dominant mite species, Microspalax brevipes and Zachvatkinia ovata, inhabiting flight feathers of the Cory’s shearwater, Calonectris borealis. We performed mite counts across and within primary and tail feathers on free-living shearwaters breeding on an oceanic island (Gran Canaria, Canary Islands). We then investigated trophic relationships between the two mite species and the host using stable isotope analyses of carbon and nitrogen on mite tissues and potential host food sources. The distribution of the two mite species showed clear spatial segregation among feathers; M. brevipes showed high preference for the central wing primary feathers, whereas Z. ovata was restricted to the two outermost primaries. Morphological differences between M. brevipes and Z. ovata support an adaptive basis for the spatial segregation of the two mite species. However, the two mites overlap in some central primaries and statistical modeling showed that Z. ovata tends to outcompete M. brevipes. Isotopic analyses indicated similar isotopic values for the two mite species and a strong correlation in carbon signatures between mites inhabiting the same individual host suggesting that diet is mainly based on shared host-associated resources. Among the four candidate tissues examined (blood, feather remains, skin remains and preen gland oil), we conclude that the diet is most likely dominated by preen gland oil, while the contribution of exogenous material to mite diets is less marked. Our results indicate that ongoing competition for space and resources plays a central role in structuring feather mite communities. They also illustrate that symbiotic infracommunities are excellent model systems to study trophic ecology, and can improve our understanding of mechanisms of niche differentiation and species coexistence. PMID:26650672

Partition thermodynamics of ionic surfactants between phosphatidylcholine vesicle and water phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Shin-Chi; Hung, Chia-Hui; Wang, Shun-Cheng; Tsao, Heng-Kwong

2003-08-01

The partition of ionic surfactants (sodium alkyl sulfate and alkyl trimethyl ammonium bromide) between phosphatidylcholine vesicles and aqueous phase is investigated by simple conductometry under different temperatures. The experimental results can be well represented by the proposed regular solution theory and the thermodynamic parameters satisfy the thermodynamic consistency. The deviation from ideal partition is manifested through the effective interaction energy between lipid and surfactant wb, which is O(kT) large. It is found that wb rises as the alkyl chain is decreased for a specified head group. This is attributed to significant mismatch of chain lengths between surfactant and lipid molecules. The partition coefficient K declines with increasing temperature. The energy barrier from bilayer to aqueous phase, Δμ/kT∝ln K, is in the range of 16-26 kJ/mol. As the alkyl chain length is decreased for a given head group, Δμ is lowered by 1.3-1.5 kJ/mol per methylene group. Two independent analyses are employed to confirm this result. Using the thermodynamic parameters determined from experiments, the internal energy, entropy, and free energy of the partition process can be derived. Partition is essentially driven by the internal energy gain. The solubilizing ability, which is represented by the maximum surfactant-lipid ratio in the bilayer, Reb also decreases in accord with the K parameter. It is because the change in temperature influences the surfactant incorporation into the bilayer more than the formation of micelles.

Phylogenetically marking the limits of the genus Fusarium for post-Article 59 usage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic, plant pathogenic, and human pathogenic fungi. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial nucleotide sequences of genes encod...

A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

2017-07-01

An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

A taxonomic monograph of Nearctic Scolytus Geoffroy (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae).

PubMed

Smith, Sarah M; Cognato, Anthony I

2014-01-01

The Nearctic bark beetle genus Scolytus Geoffroy was revised based in part on a molecular and morphological phylogeny. Monophyly of the native species was tested using mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (28S, CAD, ArgK) genes and 43 morphological characters in parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Parsimony analyses of molecular and combined datasets provided mixed results while Bayesian analysis recovered most nodes with posterior probabilities >90%. Native hardwood- and conifer-feeding Scolytus species were recovered as paraphyletic. Native Nearctic species were recovered as paraphyletic with hardwood-feeding species sister to Palearctic hardwood-feeding species rather than to native conifer-feeding species. The Nearctic conifer-feeding species were monophyletic. Twenty-five species were recognized. Four new synonyms were discovered: Scolytuspraeceps LeConte, 1868 (= Scolytusabietis Blackman, 1934; = Scolytusopacus Blackman, 1934), Scolytusreflexus Blackman, 1934 (= Scolytusvirgatus Bright, 1972; = Scolytuswickhami Blackman, 1934). Two species were reinstated: Scolytusfiskei Blackman, 1934 and Scolytussilvaticus Bright, 1972. A diagnosis, description, distribution, host records and images were provided for each species and a key is presented to all species.

A Bayesian model averaging approach with non-informative priors for cost-effectiveness analyses.

PubMed

Conigliani, Caterina

2010-07-20

We consider the problem of assessing new and existing technologies for their cost-effectiveness in the case where data on both costs and effects are available from a clinical trial, and we address it by means of the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. The main difficulty in these analyses is that cost data usually exhibit highly skew and heavy-tailed distributions, so that it can be extremely difficult to produce realistic probabilistic models for the underlying population distribution. Here, in order to integrate the uncertainty about the model into the analysis of cost data and into cost-effectiveness analyses, we consider an approach based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the particular case of weak prior informations about the unknown parameters of the different models involved in the procedure. The main consequence of this assumption is that the marginal densities required by BMA are undetermined. However, in accordance with the theory of partial Bayes factors and in particular of fractional Bayes factors, we suggest replacing each marginal density with a ratio of integrals that can be efficiently computed via path sampling. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Kinetic limitations on tracer partitioning in ganglia dominated source zones.

PubMed

Ervin, Rhiannon E; Boroumand, Ali; Abriola, Linda M; Ramsburg, C Andrew

2011-11-01

Quantification of the relationship between dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source strength, source longevity and spatial distribution is increasingly recognized as important for effective remedial design. Partitioning tracers are one tool that may permit interrogation of DNAPL architecture. Tracer data are commonly analyzed under the assumption of linear, equilibrium partitioning, although the appropriateness of these assumptions has not been fully explored. Here we focus on elucidating the nonlinear and nonequilibrium partitioning behavior of three selected alcohol tracers - 1-pentanol, 1-hexanol and 2-octanol in a series of batch and column experiments. Liquid-liquid equilibria for systems comprising water, TCE and the selected alcohol illustrate the nonlinear distribution of alcohol between the aqueous and organic phases. Complete quantification of these equilibria facilitates delineation of the limits of applicability of the linear partitioning assumption, and assessment of potential inaccuracies associated with measurement of partition coefficients at a single concentration. Column experiments were conducted under conditions of non-equilibrium to evaluate the kinetics of the reversible absorption of the selected tracers in a sandy medium containing a uniform entrapped saturation of TCE-DNAPL. Experimental tracer breakthrough data were used, in conjunction with mathematical models and batch measurements, to evaluate alternative hypotheses for observed deviations from linear equilibrium partitioning behavior. Analyses suggest that, although all tracers accumulate at the TCE-DNAPL/aqueous interface, surface accumulation does not influence transport at concentrations typically employed for tracer tests. Moreover, results reveal that the kinetics of the reversible absorption process are well described using existing mass transfer correlations originally developed to model aqueous boundary layer resistance for pure-component NAPL dissolution. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Spatial distribution of psychotic disorders in an urban area of France: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pignon, Baptiste; Schürhoff, Franck; Baudin, Grégoire; Ferchiou, Aziz; Richard, Jean-Romain; Saba, Ghassen; Leboyer, Marion; Kirkbride, James B; Szöke, Andrei

2016-05-18

Previous analyses of neighbourhood variations of non-affective psychotic disorders (NAPD) have focused mainly on incidence. However, prevalence studies provide important insights on factors associated with disease evolution as well as for healthcare resource allocation. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of prevalent NAPD cases in an urban area in France. The number of cases in each neighbourhood was modelled as a function of potential confounders and ecological variables, namely: migrant density, economic deprivation and social fragmentation. This was modelled using statistical models of increasing complexity: frequentist models (using Poisson and negative binomial regressions), and several Bayesian models. For each model, assumptions validity were checked and compared as to how this fitted to the data, in order to test for possible spatial variation in prevalence. Data showed significant overdispersion (invalidating the Poisson regression model) and residual autocorrelation (suggesting the need to use Bayesian models). The best Bayesian model was Leroux's model (i.e. a model with both strong correlation between neighbouring areas and weaker correlation between areas further apart), with economic deprivation as an explanatory variable (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.02-1.25]). In comparison with frequentist methods, the Bayesian model showed a better fit. The number of cases showed non-random spatial distribution and was linked to economic deprivation.

Development of a Bayesian response-adaptive trial design for the Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation study.

PubMed

Holm Hansen, Christian; Warner, Pamela; Parker, Richard A; Walker, Brian R; Critchley, Hilary Od; Weir, Christopher J

2017-12-01

It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. This article describes the preparatory simulation study for a Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding trial design. Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation aims to assess the efficacy of Dexamethasone in reducing excessive menstrual bleeding and to determine the best dose for further study. To maximise learning about the dose response, patients receive placebo or an active dose with randomisation probabilities adapting based on evidence from patients already recruited. The dose-response relationship is estimated using a flexible Bayesian Normal Dynamic Linear Model. Several competing design options were considered including: number of doses, proportion assigned to placebo, adaptation criterion, and number and timing of adaptations. We performed a fractional factorial study using SAS software to simulate virtual trial data for candidate adaptive designs under a variety of scenarios and to invoke WinBUGS for Bayesian model estimation. We analysed the simulated trial results using Normal linear models to estimate the effects of each design feature on empirical type I error and statistical power. Our readily-implemented approach using widely available statistical software identified a final design which performed robustly across a range of potential trial scenarios.

Patterns of population structure and dispersal in the long-lived "redwood" of the coral reef, the giant barrel sponge ( Xestospongia muta)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Vincent P.; Bernard, Andrea M.; Feldheim, Kevin A.; Shivji, Mahmood S.

2016-09-01

Sponges are one of the dominant fauna on Florida and Caribbean coral reefs, with species diversity often exceeding that of scleractinian corals. Despite the key role of sponges as structural components, habitat providers, and nutrient recyclers in reef ecosystems, their dispersal dynamics are little understood. We used ten microsatellite markers to study the population structure and dispersal patterns of a prominent reef species, the giant barrel sponge ( Xestospongia muta), the long-lived "redwood" of the reef, throughout Florida and the Caribbean. F-statistics, exact tests of population differentiation, and Bayesian multi-locus genotype analyses revealed high levels of overall genetic partitioning ( F ST = 0.12, P = 0.001) and grouped 363 individuals collected from the Bahamas, Honduras, US Virgin Islands, Key Largo (Florida), and the remainder of the Florida reef tract into at minimum five genetic clusters ( K = 5). Exact tests, however, revealed further differentiation, grouping sponges sampled from five locations across the Florida reef tract (~250 km) into three populations, suggesting a total of six genetic populations across the eight locations sampled. Assignment tests showed dispersal over ecological timescales to be limited to relatively short distances, as the only migration detected among populations was within the Florida reef tract. Consequently, populations of this major coral reef benthic constituent appear largely self-recruiting. A combination of levels of genetic differentiation, genetic distance, and assignment tests support the important role of the Caribbean and Florida currents in shaping patterns of contemporary and historical gene flow in this widespread coral reef species.

Development of novel SSR markers for evaluation of genetic diversity and population structure in Tribulus terrestris L. (Zygophyllaceae).

PubMed

Kaur, Kuljit; Sharma, Vikas; Singh, Vijay; Wani, Mohammad Saleem; Gupta, Raghbir Chand

2016-12-01

Tribulus terrestris L., commonly called puncture vine and gokhru, is an important member of Zygophyllaceae. The species is highly important in context to therapeutic uses and provides important active principles responsible for treatment of various diseases and also used as tonic. It is widely distributed in tropical regions of India and the world. However, status of its genetic diversity remained concealed due to lack of research work in this species. In present study, genetic diversity and structure of different populations of T. terrestris from north India was examined at molecular level using newly developed Simple Sequence Repeat (SSR) markers. In total, 20 primers produced 48 alleles in a size range of 100-500 bp with maximum (4) fragments amplified by TTMS-1, TTMS-25 and TTMS-33. Mean Polymorphism Information Content (PIC) and Marker Index (MI) were 0.368 and 1.01, respectively. Dendrogram showed three groups, one of which was purely containing accessions from Rajasthan while other two groups corresponded to Punjab and Haryana regions with intermixing of few other accessions. Analysis of molecular variance partitioned 76 % genetic variance within populations and 24 % among populations. Bayesian model based STRUCTURE analysis detected two genetic stocks for analyzed germplasm and also detected some admixed individuals. Different geographical populations of this species showed high level of genetic diversity. Results of present study can be useful in identifying diverse accessions and management of this plant resource. Moreover, the novel SSR markers developed can be utilized for various genetic analyses in this species in future.

Trophic ecology of sea urchins in coral-rocky reef systems, Ecuador

PubMed Central

Loor-Andrade, Peggy; Rodríguez-Barreras, Ruber; Cortés, Jorge

2016-01-01

Sea urchins are important grazers and influence reef development in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). Diadema mexicanum and Eucidaris thouarsii are the most important sea urchins on the Ecuadorian coastal reefs. This study provided a trophic scenario for these two species of echinoids in the coral-rocky reef bottoms of the Ecuadorian coast, using stable isotopes. We evaluated the relative proportion of algal resources assimilated, and trophic niche of the two sea urchins in the most southern coral-rocky reefs of the ETP in two sites with different disturbance level. Bayesian models were used to estimate the contribution of algal sources, niche breadth, and trophic overlap between the two species. The sea urchins behaved as opportunistic feeders, although they showed differential resource assimilation. Eucidaris thouarsii is the dominant species in disturbed environments; likewise, their niche amplitude was broader than that of D. mexicanum when conditions were not optimal. However, there was no niche overlap between the species. The Stable Isotope Analysis in R (SIAR) indicated that both sea urchins shared limiting resources in the disturbed area, mainly Dictyota spp. (contributions of up to 85% for D. mexicanum and up to 75% for E. thouarsii). The Stable Isotope Bayesian Ellipses in R (SIBER) analysis results indicated less interspecific competition in the undisturbed site. Our results suggested a trophic niche partitioning between sympatric sea urchin species in coastal areas of the ETP, but the limitation of resources could lead to trophic overlap and stronger habitat degradation. PMID:26839748

Boosting Bayesian parameter inference of nonlinear stochastic differential equation models by Hamiltonian scale separation.

PubMed

Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone; Stoop, Ruedi

2016-04-01

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In many situations, the dominant sources of uncertainty must be included into the model for making reliable predictions. This naturally leads to stochastic models. Stochastic models render parameter inference much harder, as the aim then is to find a distribution of likely parameter values. In Bayesian statistics, which is a consistent framework for data-driven learning, this so-called posterior distribution can be used to make probabilistic predictions. We propose a novel, exact, and very efficient approach for generating posterior parameter distributions for stochastic differential equation models calibrated to measured time series. The algorithm is inspired by reinterpreting the posterior distribution as a statistical mechanics partition function of an object akin to a polymer, where the measurements are mapped on heavier beads compared to those of the simulated data. To arrive at distribution samples, we employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach combined with a multiple time-scale integration. A separation of time scales naturally arises if either the number of measurement points or the number of simulation points becomes large. Furthermore, at least for one-dimensional problems, we can decouple the harmonic modes between measurement points and solve the fastest part of their dynamics analytically. Our approach is applicable to a wide range of inference problems and is highly parallelizable.

Dietary partitioning by five sympatric species of stingray (Dasyatidae) on coral reefs.

PubMed

O'Shea, O R; Thums, M; van Keulen, M; Kempster, R M; Meekan, M G

2013-06-01

Dietary characteristics and the degree of dietary partitioning by five species of sympatric stingray were assessed using stomach content and sediment analyses within a coral reef lagoon at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia (the cowtail Pastinachus atrus, blue-spotted fantail Taeniura lymma, blue-spotted mask Neotrygon kuhlii, porcupine Urogymnus asperrimus rays and the reticulate whipray Himantura uarnak). A total of 2804 items were recovered from the stomachs of 170 rays and 3215 individual taxa from the environment, which were used in selectivity analyses. Twenty-four prey taxa were identified from stomach contents and pooled into 10 taxonomic categories for analysis, of which annelids, prawns, brachyurans and bivalves were the most abundant, together accounting for 96% of the diet. Himantura uarnak had the greatest interspecific dissimilarity in diet, consuming a larger proportion of crustaceans, notably penaeids (41% of total diet) than the other four species of rays, all of which had diets dominated by annelids (71-82% of total diet). Crustacean specialization by H. uarnak may exist to maximize resources and reduce competition among sympatric species. The remaining species may partition resources on the basis of space, rather than diet. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Evaluation of Potential Thrombin Inhibitors from the White Mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa (L.) C.F. Gaertn.)

PubMed Central

Rodrigues, Caroline Fabri Bittencourt; Gaeta, Henrique Hessel; Belchor, Mariana Novo; Ferreira, Marcelo José Pena; Pinho, Marcus Vinícius Terashima; de Oliveira Toyama, Daniela; Toyama, Marcos Hikari

2015-01-01

The aim of this work was to verify the effects of methanol (MeOH) and hydroalcoholic (HA) extracts and their respective partition phases obtained from white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa (L.) C.F. Gaertn.) leaves on human thrombin activity. Among the extracts and phases tested, only the ethyl acetate and butanolic partitions significantly inhibited human thrombin activity and the coagulation of plasma in the presence of this enzyme. Chromatographic analyses of the thrombin samples incubated with these phases revealed that different compounds were able to interact with thrombin. The butanolic phase of the MeOH extract had the most potent inhibitory effects, reducing enzymatic activity and thrombin-induced plasma coagulation. Two glycosylated flavonoids in this partition were identified as the most potent inhibitors of human thrombin activity, namely quercetin-3-O-arabinoside (QAra) and quercetin-3-O-rhamnoside (Qn). Chromatographic analyses of thrombin samples incubated with these flavonoids demonstrated the chemical modification of this enzyme, suggesting that the MeOH extract contained other compounds that both induced structural changes in thrombin and diminished its activity. In this article, we show that despite the near absence of the medical use of mangrove compounds, this plant contains natural compounds with potential therapeutic applications. PMID:26197325

Open-loop-feedback control of serum drug concentrations: pharmacokinetic approaches to drug therapy.

PubMed

Jelliffe, R W

1983-01-01

Recent developments to optimize open-loop-feedback control of drug dosage regimens, generally applicable to pharmacokinetically oriented therapy with many drugs, involve computation of patient-individualized strategies for obtaining desired serum drug concentrations. Analyses of past therapy are performed by least squares, extended least squares, and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian methods of fitting pharmacokinetic models to serum level data. Future possibilities for truly optimal open-loop-feedback therapy with full Bayesian methods, and conceivably for optimal closed-loop therapy in such data-poor clinical situations, are also discussed. Implementation of these various therapeutic strategies, using automated, locally controlled infusion devices, has also been achieved in prototype form.

Comparison of fate profiles of PAHs in soil, sediments and mangrove leaves after oil spills by QSAR and QSPR.

PubMed

Tansel, Berrin; Lee, Mengshan; Tansel, Derya Z

2013-08-15

First order removal rates for 15 polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil, sediments and mangrove leaves were compared in relation to the parameters used in fate transport analyses (i.e., octanol-water partition coefficient, organic carbon-water partition coefficient, solubility, diffusivity in water, HOMO-LUMO gap, molecular size, molecular aspect ratio). The quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) and quantitative structure property relationships (QSPR) showed that the rate of disappearance of PAHs is correlated with their diffusivities in water as well as molecular volumes in different media. Strong correlations for the rate of disappearance of PAHs in sediments could not be obtained in relation to most of the parameters evaluated. The analyses showed that the QSAR and QSPR correlations developed for removal rates of PAHs in soils would not be adequate for sediments and plant tissues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the effects of architectural variations on light partitioning within virtual wheat–pea mixtures

PubMed Central

Barillot, Romain; Escobar-Gutiérrez, Abraham J.; Fournier, Christian; Huynh, Pierre; Combes, Didier

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Predicting light partitioning in crop mixtures is a critical step in improving the productivity of such complex systems, and light interception has been shown to be closely linked to plant architecture. The aim of the present work was to analyse the relationships between plant architecture and light partitioning within wheat–pea (Triticum aestivum–Pisum sativum) mixtures. An existing model for wheat was utilized and a new model for pea morphogenesis was developed. Both models were then used to assess the effects of architectural variations in light partitioning. Methods First, a deterministic model (L-Pea) was developed in order to obtain dynamic reconstructions of pea architecture. The L-Pea model is based on L-systems formalism and consists of modules for ‘vegetative development’ and ‘organ extension’. A tripartite simulator was then built up from pea and wheat models interfaced with a radiative transfer model. Architectural parameters from both plant models, selected on the basis of their contribution to leaf area index (LAI), height and leaf geometry, were then modified in order to generate contrasting architectures of wheat and pea. Key results By scaling down the analysis to the organ level, it could be shown that the number of branches/tillers and length of internodes significantly determined the partitioning of light within mixtures. Temporal relationships between light partitioning and the LAI and height of the different species showed that light capture was mainly related to the architectural traits involved in plant LAI during the early stages of development, and in plant height during the onset of interspecific competition. Conclusions In silico experiments enabled the study of the intrinsic effects of architectural parameters on the partitioning of light in crop mixtures of wheat and pea. The findings show that plant architecture is an important criterion for the identification/breeding of plant ideotypes, particularly with respect to light partitioning. PMID:24907314

Revisiting Isotherm Analyses Using R: Comparison of Linear, Non-linear, and Bayesian Techniques

EPA Science Inventory

Extensive adsorption isotherm data exist for an array of chemicals of concern on a variety of engineered and natural sorbents. Several isotherm models exist that can accurately describe these data from which the resultant fitting parameters may subsequently be used in numerical ...

Controlling bi-partite entanglement in multi-qubit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesch, Martin; Novotný, Jaroslav; Dzuráková, Zuzana; Buzek, Vladimír

2004-02-01

Bi-partite entanglement in multi-qubit systems cannot be shared freely. The rules of quantum mechanics impose bounds on how multi-qubit systems can be correlated. In this paper, we utilize a concept of entangled graphs with weighted edges in order to analyse pure quantum states of multi-qubit systems. Here qubits are represented by vertexes of the graph, while the presence of bi-partite entanglement is represented by an edge between corresponding vertexes. The weight of each edge is defined to be the entanglement between the two qubits connected by the edge, as measured by the concurrence. We prove that each entangled graph with entanglement bounded by a specific value of the concurrence can be represented by a pure multi-qubit state. In addition, we present a logic network with O(N2) elementary gates that can be used for preparation of the weighted entangled graphs of N qubits.

A comparison of two worlds: How does Bayes hold up to the status quo for the analysis of clinical trials?

PubMed

Pressman, Alice R; Avins, Andrew L; Hubbard, Alan; Satariano, William A

2011-07-01

There is a paucity of literature comparing Bayesian analytic techniques with traditional approaches for analyzing clinical trials using real trial data. We compared Bayesian and frequentist group sequential methods using data from two published clinical trials. We chose two widely accepted frequentist rules, O'Brien-Fleming and Lan-DeMets, and conjugate Bayesian priors. Using the nonparametric bootstrap, we estimated a sampling distribution of stopping times for each method. Because current practice dictates the preservation of an experiment-wise false positive rate (Type I error), we approximated these error rates for our Bayesian and frequentist analyses with the posterior probability of detecting an effect in a simulated null sample. Thus for the data-generated distribution represented by these trials, we were able to compare the relative performance of these techniques. No final outcomes differed from those of the original trials. However, the timing of trial termination differed substantially by method and varied by trial. For one trial, group sequential designs of either type dictated early stopping of the study. In the other, stopping times were dependent upon the choice of spending function and prior distribution. Results indicate that trialists ought to consider Bayesian methods in addition to traditional approaches for analysis of clinical trials. Though findings from this small sample did not demonstrate either method to consistently outperform the other, they did suggest the need to replicate these comparisons using data from varied clinical trials in order to determine the conditions under which the different methods would be most efficient. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of two worlds: How does Bayes hold up to the status quo for the analysis of clinical trials?

PubMed Central

Pressman, Alice R.; Avins, Andrew L.; Hubbard, Alan; Satariano, William A.

2014-01-01

Background There is a paucity of literature comparing Bayesian analytic techniques with traditional approaches for analyzing clinical trials using real trial data. Methods We compared Bayesian and frequentist group sequential methods using data from two published clinical trials. We chose two widely accepted frequentist rules, O'Brien–Fleming and Lan–DeMets, and conjugate Bayesian priors. Using the nonparametric bootstrap, we estimated a sampling distribution of stopping times for each method. Because current practice dictates the preservation of an experiment-wise false positive rate (Type I error), we approximated these error rates for our Bayesian and frequentist analyses with the posterior probability of detecting an effect in a simulated null sample. Thus for the data-generated distribution represented by these trials, we were able to compare the relative performance of these techniques. Results No final outcomes differed from those of the original trials. However, the timing of trial termination differed substantially by method and varied by trial. For one trial, group sequential designs of either type dictated early stopping of the study. In the other, stopping times were dependent upon the choice of spending function and prior distribution. Conclusions Results indicate that trialists ought to consider Bayesian methods in addition to traditional approaches for analysis of clinical trials. Though findings from this small sample did not demonstrate either method to consistently outperform the other, they did suggest the need to replicate these comparisons using data from varied clinical trials in order to determine the conditions under which the different methods would be most efficient. PMID:21453792

Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.

PubMed

Mengersen, Kerrie L; Drovandi, Christopher C; Robert, Christian P; Pyne, David B; Gore, Christopher J

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Millennial strain partitioning revealed by 36Cl cosmogenic data on active bedrock fault scarps from Abruzzo, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregory, Laura; Roberts, Gerald; Cowie, Patience; Wedmore, Luke; McCaffrey, Ken; Shanks, Richard; Zijerveld, Leo; Phillips, Richard

2017-04-01

In zones of distributed continental faulting, it is critical to understand how slip is partitioned onto brittle structures over both long-term millennial time scales and shorter-term individual earthquake cycles. Measuring earthquake slip histories on different timescales is challenging due to earthquake repeat-times being longer or similar to historical earthquake records, and a paucity of data on fault activity covering millennial to Quaternary scales in detail. Cosmogenic isotope analyses from bedrock fault scarps have the potential to bridge the gap, as these datasets track the exposure of fault planes due to earthquakes with millennial resolution. In this presentation, we present new 36Cl data combined with historical earthquake records to document orogen-wide changes in the distribution of seismicity on millennial timescales in Abruzzo, central Italy. Seismic activity due to extensional faulting was concentrated on the northwest side of the mountain range during the historical period, or since approximately the 14th century. Seismicity is more limited on the southwest side of Abruzzo during historical times. This pattern has led some to suggest that faults on the southwest side of Abruzzo are not active, however clear fault scarps cutting Holocene-aged slopes are well preserved across the whole of the orogen. These scarps preserve an excellent record of Late Pleistocene to Holocene earthquake activity, which can be quantified using cosmogenic isotopes that track the exposure of the bedrock fault scarps. 36Cl accumulates in the fault scarps as the plane is progressively exhumed by earthquakes and the concentration of 36Cl measured up the fault plane reflects the rate and patterns of slip. We utilise Bayesian modelling techniques to estimate slip histories based on the cosmogenic data. Each sampling site is carefully characterised using LiDAR and GPR to ensure that fault plane exposure is due to slip during earthquakes and not sediment transport processes. In this presentation we will focus on new data from faults located across-strike in Abruzzo. Many faults in Abruzzo demonstrate slip rate variability on millennial timescales, with relatively fast slip interspersed between quiescent periods. We show that heightened activity is co-located and spatially migrates across Abruzzo over time. We highlight the importance of understanding this dynamic fault behaviour of migrating seismic activity, and in particular how our research is relevant to the 2016 Amatrice-Vettore seismic sequence in central Italy.

Estimating relative risks in multicenter studies with a small number of centers - which methods to use? A simulation study.

PubMed

Pedroza, Claudia; Truong, Van Thi Thanh

2017-11-02

Analyses of multicenter studies often need to account for center clustering to ensure valid inference. For binary outcomes, it is particularly challenging to properly adjust for center when the number of centers or total sample size is small, or when there are few events per center. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of generalized estimating equation (GEE) log-binomial and Poisson models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) assuming binomial and Poisson distributions, and a Bayesian binomial GLMM to account for center effect in these scenarios. We conducted a simulation study with few centers (≤30) and 50 or fewer subjects per center, using both a randomized controlled trial and an observational study design to estimate relative risk. We compared the GEE and GLMM models with a log-binomial model without adjustment for clustering in terms of bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and coverage. For the Bayesian GLMM, we used informative neutral priors that are skeptical of large treatment effects that are almost never observed in studies of medical interventions. All frequentist methods exhibited little bias, and the RMSE was very similar across the models. The binomial GLMM had poor convergence rates, ranging from 27% to 85%, but performed well otherwise. The results show that both GEE models need to use small sample corrections for robust SEs to achieve proper coverage of 95% CIs. The Bayesian GLMM had similar convergence rates but resulted in slightly more biased estimates for the smallest sample sizes. However, it had the smallest RMSE and good coverage across all scenarios. These results were very similar for both study designs. For the analyses of multicenter studies with a binary outcome and few centers, we recommend adjustment for center with either a GEE log-binomial or Poisson model with appropriate small sample corrections or a Bayesian binomial GLMM with informative priors.

Metal/Silicate Partitioning at High Pressures and Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shofner, G.; Campbell, A.; Danielson, L.; Righter, K.; Rahman, Z.

2010-01-01

The behavior of siderophile elements during metal-silicate segregation, and their resulting distributions provide insight into core formation processes. Determination of partition coefficients allows the calculation of element distributions that can be compared to established values of element abundances in the silicate (mantle) and metallic (core) portions of the Earth. Moderately siderophile elements, including W, are particularly useful in constraining core formation conditions because they are sensitive to variations in T, P, oxygen fugacity (fO2), and silicate composition. To constrain the effect of pressure on W metal/silicate partitioning, we performed experiments at high pressures and temperatures using a multi anvil press (MAP) at NASA Johnson Space Center and laser-heated diamond anvil cells (LHDAC) at the University of Maryland. Starting materials consisted of natural peridotite mixed with Fe and W metals. Pressure conditions in the MAP experiments ranged from 10 to 16 GPa at 2400 K. Pressures in the LHDAC experiments ranged from 26 to 58 GPa, and peak temperatures ranged up to 5000 K. LHDAC experimental run products were sectioned by focused ion beam (FIB) at NASA JSC. Run products were analyzed by electron microprobe using wavelength dispersive spectroscopy. Liquid metal/liquid silicate partition coefficients for W were calculated from element abundances determined by microprobe analyses, and corrected to a common fO2 condition of IW-2 assuming +4 valence for W. Within analytical uncertainties, W partitioning shows a flat trend with increasing pressure from 10 to 16 GPa. At higher pressures, W becomes more siderophile, with an increase in partition coefficient of approximately 0.5 log units.

Heavy metal distribution and partitioning in the vicinity of the discharge areas of Lisbon drainage basins (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, Bernardo; Silva, Gilda; Costa, José Lino; Medeiros, João Paulo; Azeda, Carla; Sá, Erica; Metelo, Inês; Costa, Maria José; Caçador, Isabel

2014-10-01

Worldwide estuarine ecosystems are by their privileged geographic location, anthropogenically impacted systems. Heavy metal contamination in estuarine waters and sediments are well known to be one of the most important outcomes driven from human activities. The partitioning of these elements has been widely focused, due to its importance not only on the estuarine biogeochemistry but also on its bioavailability to the trophic webs. As observed in other estuaries, in the Tagus basin, no increase in the partition coefficients with the increasing suspended particulate matter concentrations was observed, mostly due to a permanent dilution process of the suspended matter, rich in heavy metals and less contaminated and resuspended bottom sediments. Another important outcome of this study was the common origin of all the analysed heavy metals, probably due to the large industrialization process that the margins of the Tagus estuary suffered in the past, although no relationship was found with the presence of the different discharge areas. In fact, metal partitioning seems to be mostly influenced by the chemical species in which the pollutant is delivered to the system and on water chemistry, with a higher emphasis on the metal cycling essentially between the particulate and dissolved phase. This partitioning system acquires a relevant importance while evaluating the impacts of marine construction and the associated dredging operations, and consequent changes in the estuarine water chemistry.

On factors structuring the flatfish assemblage in the southern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piet, G. J.; Pfisterer, A. B.; Rijnsdorp, A. D.

1998-09-01

Ten species of flatfish were studied to see to what extent interspecific competition influences their diet or spatial distribution and whether the potential of these flatfish species to avoid interspecific competition through resource partitioning is constrained by specific morphological characteristics. For this, seven morphological characteristics were measured, diet composition was determined from gut content analyses and overlap in distribution was determined from the co-occurrence in trawl hauls. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed the morphological characteristics that were most strongly correlated with the diet composition. Based on these findings the mouth gape was considered to be the most important morphological constraint affecting the choice of food. Two resource dimensions were distinguished along which interspecific competition can act on the flatfish assemblage: the trophic dimension (diet composition) and the spatial dimension (distribution). Resource partitioning was observed along both dimensions separately and, more importantly, the degree of resource partitioning along the two dimensions was negatively correlated. Especially the latter was considered strong circumstantial evidence that interspecific competition is a major factor structuring the flatfish assemblage. Resource partitioning along the two resource dimensions increased with decreasing mouth gape, suggesting that interspecific competition mainly acts on the small-mouthed fish, i.e. juveniles.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

System Analysis by Mapping a Fault-tree into a Bayesian-network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, B.; Deng, C.; Wang, Y. H.; Tang, L. H.

2018-05-01

In view of the limitations of fault tree analysis in reliability assessment, Bayesian Network (BN) has been studied as an alternative technology. After a brief introduction to the method for mapping a Fault Tree (FT) into an equivalent BN, equations used to calculate the structure importance degree, the probability importance degree and the critical importance degree are presented. Furthermore, the correctness of these equations is proved mathematically. Combining with an aircraft landing gear’s FT, an equivalent BN is developed and analysed. The results show that richer and more accurate information have been achieved through the BN method than the FT, which demonstrates that the BN is a superior technique in both reliability assessment and fault diagnosis.

A Bayesian Meta-Analysis on Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection among Chinese Volunteer Blood Donors

PubMed Central

Liu, Guang-ying; Zheng, Yang; Deng, Yan; Gao, Yan-yan; Wang, Lie

2013-01-01

Background Although transfusion-transmitted infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV) threatens the blood safety of China, the nationwide circumstance of HBV infection among blood donors is still unclear. Objectives To comprehensively estimate the prevalence of HBsAg positive and HBV occult infection (OBI) among Chinese volunteer blood donors through bayesian meta-analysis. Methods We performed an electronic search in Pub-Med, Web of Knowledge, Medline, Wanfang Data and CNKI, complemented by a hand search of relevant reference lists. Two authors independently extracted data from the eligible studies. Then two bayesian random-effect meta-analyses were performed, followed by bayesian meta-regressions. Results 5957412 and 571227 donors were identified in HBsAg group and OBI group, respectively. The pooled prevalence of HBsAg group and OBI group among donors is 1.085% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.859%∼1.398%) and 0.094% (95% CI 0.0578%∼0.1655%). For HBsAg group, subgroup analysis shows the more developed area has a lower prevalence than the less developed area; meta-regression indicates there is a significant decreasing trend in HBsAg positive prevalence with sampling year (beta = −0.1202, 95% −0.2081∼−0.0312). Conclusion Blood safety against HBV infection in China is suffering serious threats and the government should take effective measures to improve this situation. PMID:24236110

A Bayesian bird's eye view of ‘Replications of important results in social psychology’

PubMed Central

Schönbrodt, Felix D.; Yao, Yuling; Gelman, Andrew; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2017-01-01

We applied three Bayesian methods to reanalyse the preregistered contributions to the Social Psychology special issue ‘Replications of Important Results in Social Psychology’ (Nosek & Lakens. 2014 Registered reports: a method to increase the credibility of published results. Soc. Psychol. 45, 137–141. (doi:10.1027/1864-9335/a000192)). First, individual-experiment Bayesian parameter estimation revealed that for directed effect size measures, only three out of 44 central 95% credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. For undirected effect size measures, only four out of 59 credible intervals contained values greater than 0.10 (10% of variance explained) and only 19 intervals contained values larger than 0.05. Second, a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis for all 38 t-tests showed that only one out of the 38 hierarchically estimated credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. Third, a Bayes factor hypothesis test was used to quantify the evidence for the null hypothesis against a default one-sided alternative. Only seven out of 60 Bayes factors indicated non-anecdotal support in favour of the alternative hypothesis (BF10>3), whereas 51 Bayes factors indicated at least some support for the null hypothesis. We hope that future analyses of replication success will embrace a more inclusive statistical approach by adopting a wider range of complementary techniques. PMID:28280547

Bayesian power spectrum inference with foreground and target contamination treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasche, J.; Lavaux, G.

2017-10-01

This work presents a joint and self-consistent Bayesian treatment of various foreground and target contaminations when inferring cosmological power spectra and three-dimensional density fields from galaxy redshift surveys. This is achieved by introducing additional block-sampling procedures for unknown coefficients of foreground and target contamination templates to the previously presented ARES framework for Bayesian large-scale structure analyses. As a result, the method infers jointly and fully self-consistently three-dimensional density fields, cosmological power spectra, luminosity-dependent galaxy biases, noise levels of the respective galaxy distributions, and coefficients for a set of a priori specified foreground templates. In addition, this fully Bayesian approach permits detailed quantification of correlated uncertainties amongst all inferred quantities and correctly marginalizes over observational systematic effects. We demonstrate the validity and efficiency of our approach in obtaining unbiased estimates of power spectra via applications to realistic mock galaxy observations that are subject to stellar contamination and dust extinction. While simultaneously accounting for galaxy biases and unknown noise levels, our method reliably and robustly infers three-dimensional density fields and corresponding cosmological power spectra from deep galaxy surveys. Furthermore, our approach correctly accounts for joint and correlated uncertainties between unknown coefficients of foreground templates and the amplitudes of the power spectrum. This effect amounts to correlations and anti-correlations of up to 10 per cent across wide ranges in Fourier space.

Bayesian spatiotemporal model of fMRI data using transfer functions.

PubMed

Quirós, Alicia; Diez, Raquel Montes; Wilson, Simon P

2010-09-01

This research describes a new Bayesian spatiotemporal model to analyse BOLD fMRI studies. In the temporal dimension, we describe the shape of the hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a transfer function model. The spatial continuity and local homogeneity of the evoked responses are modelled by a Gaussian Markov random field prior on the parameter indicating activations. The proposal constitutes an extension of the spatiotemporal model presented in a previous approach [Quirós, A., Montes Diez, R. and Gamerman, D., 2010. Bayesian spatiotemporal model of fMRI data, Neuroimage, 49: 442-456], offering more flexibility in the estimation of the HRF and computational advantages in the resulting MCMC algorithm. Simulations from the model are performed in order to ascertain the performance of the sampling scheme and the ability of the posterior to estimate model parameters, as well as to check the model sensitivity to signal to noise ratio. Results are shown on synthetic data and on a real data set from a block-design fMRI experiment. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic basis of climatic adaptation in scots pine by bayesian quantitative trait locus analysis.

PubMed Central

Hurme, P; Sillanpää, M J; Arjas, E; Repo, T; Savolainen, O

2000-01-01

We examined the genetic basis of large adaptive differences in timing of bud set and frost hardiness between natural populations of Scots pine. As a mapping population, we considered an "open-pollinated backcross" progeny by collecting seeds of a single F(1) tree (cross between trees from southern and northern Finland) growing in southern Finland. Due to the special features of the design (no marker information available on grandparents or the father), we applied a Bayesian quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping method developed previously for outcrossed offspring. We found four potential QTL for timing of bud set and seven for frost hardiness. Bayesian analyses detected more QTL than ANOVA for frost hardiness, but the opposite was true for bud set. These QTL included alleles with rather large effects, and additionally smaller QTL were supported. The largest QTL for bud set date accounted for about a fourth of the mean difference between populations. Thus, natural selection during adaptation has resulted in selection of at least some alleles of rather large effect. PMID:11063704

Rational hypocrisy: a Bayesian analysis based on informal argumentation and slippery slopes.

PubMed

Rai, Tage S; Holyoak, Keith J

2014-01-01

Moral hypocrisy is typically viewed as an ethical accusation: Someone is applying different moral standards to essentially identical cases, dishonestly claiming that one action is acceptable while otherwise equivalent actions are not. We suggest that in some instances the apparent logical inconsistency stems from different evaluations of a weak argument, rather than dishonesty per se. Extending Corner, Hahn, and Oaksford's (2006) analysis of slippery slope arguments, we develop a Bayesian framework in which accusations of hypocrisy depend on inferences of shared category membership between proposed actions and previous standards, based on prior probabilities that inform the strength of competing hypotheses. Across three experiments, we demonstrate that inferences of hypocrisy increase as perceptions of the likelihood of shared category membership between precedent cases and current cases increase, that these inferences follow established principles of category induction, and that the presence of self-serving motives increases inferences of hypocrisy independent of changes in the actions themselves. Taken together, these results demonstrate that Bayesian analyses of weak arguments may have implications for assessing moral reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Integrating health economics modeling in the product development cycle of medical devices: a Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Vallejo-Torres, Laura; Steuten, Lotte M G; Buxton, Martin J; Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry

2008-01-01

Medical device companies are under growing pressure to provide health-economic evaluations of their products. Cost-effectiveness analyses are commonly undertaken as a one-off exercise at the late stage of development of new technologies; however, the benefits of an iterative use of economic evaluation during the development process of new products have been acknowledged in the literature. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods within health technology assessment has been shown to be of particular value in the dynamic framework of technology appraisal when new information becomes available in the life cycle of technologies. In this study, we set out a methodology to adapt these methods for their application to directly support investment decisions in a commercial setting from early stages of the development of new medical devices. Starting with relatively simple analysis from the very early development phase and proceeding to greater depth of analysis at later stages, a Bayesian approach facilitates the incorporation of all available evidence and would help companies to make better informed choices at each decision point.

Genome-wide regression and prediction with the BGLR statistical package.

PubMed

Pérez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

2014-10-01

Many modern genomic data analyses require implementing regressions where the number of parameters (p, e.g., the number of marker effects) exceeds sample size (n). Implementing these large-p-with-small-n regressions poses several statistical and computational challenges, some of which can be confronted using Bayesian methods. This approach allows integrating various parametric and nonparametric shrinkage and variable selection procedures in a unified and consistent manner. The BGLR R-package implements a large collection of Bayesian regression models, including parametric variable selection and shrinkage methods and semiparametric procedures (Bayesian reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regressions, RKHS). The software was originally developed for genomic applications; however, the methods implemented are useful for many nongenomic applications as well. The response can be continuous (censored or not) or categorical (either binary or ordinal). The algorithm is based on a Gibbs sampler with scalar updates and the implementation takes advantage of efficient compiled C and Fortran routines. In this article we describe the methods implemented in BGLR, present examples of the use of the package, and discuss practical issues emerging in real-data analysis. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Possible determinants and spatial patterns of anaemia among young children in Nigeria: a Bayesian semi-parametric modelling.

PubMed

Gayawan, Ezra; Arogundade, Ekundayo D; Adebayo, Samson B

2014-03-01

Anaemia is a global public health problem affecting both developing and developed countries with major consequences for human health and socioeconomic development. This paper examines the possible relationship between Hb concentration and severity of anaemia with individual and household characteristics of children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria; and explores possible geographical variations of these outcome variables. Data on Hb concentration and severity of anaemia in children aged 6-59 months that participated in the 2010 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey were analysed. A semi-parametric model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach was adopted to examine the putative relationship of covariates of different types and possible spatial variation. Gaussian, binary and ordinal outcome variables were considered in modelling. Spatial analyses reveal a distinct North-South divide in Hb concentration of the children analysed and that states in Northern Nigeria possess a higher risk of anaemia. Other important risk factors include the household wealth index, sex of the child, whether or not the child had fever or malaria in the 2 weeks preceding the survey, and children under 24 months of age. There is a need for state level implementation of specific programmes that target vulnerable children as this can help in reversing the existing patterns.

Teaching Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Revealing the Basic Ideas behind the Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Wayne; Stewart, Sepideh

2014-01-01

For many scientists, researchers and students Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is an important and necessary tool to perform Bayesian analyses. The simulation is often presented as a mathematical algorithm and then translated into an appropriate computer program. However, this can result in overlooking the fundamental and deeper…

Molecular species delimitation methods recover most song-delimited cicada species in the European Cicadetta montana complex.

PubMed

Wade, E J; Hertach, T; Gogala, M; Trilar, T; Simon, C

2015-12-01

Molecular species delimitation is increasingly being used to discover and illuminate species level diversity, and a number of methods have been developed. Here, we compare the ability of two molecular species delimitation methods to recover song-delimited species in the Cicadetta montana cryptic species complex throughout Europe. Recent bioacoustics studies of male calling songs (premating reproductive barriers) have revealed cryptic species diversity in this complex. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were used to analyse the mitochondrial genes COI and COII and the nuclear genes EF1α and period for thirteen European Cicadetta species as well as the closely related monotypic genus Euboeana. Two molecular species delimitation methods, general mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) and Bayesian phylogenetics and phylogeography, identified the majority of song-delimited species and were largely congruent with each other. None of the molecular delimitation methods were able to fully recover a recent radiation of four Greek species. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education.

PubMed

Belland, Brian R; Walker, Andrew E; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-12-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains. This leaves much quantitative scaffolding literature not covered by existing meta-analyses. To address this gap, this study used Bayesian network meta-analysis to synthesize within-subjects (pre-post) differences resulting from scaffolding in 56 studies. We generated the posterior distribution using 20,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Scaffolding has a consistently strong effect across student populations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) disciplines, and assessment levels, and a strong effect when used with most problem-centered instructional models (exception: inquiry-based learning and modeling visualization) and educational levels (exception: secondary education). Results also indicate some promising areas for future scaffolding research, including scaffolding among students with learning disabilities, for whom the effect size was particularly large (ḡ = 3.13).

A taxonomic monograph of Nearctic Scolytus Geoffroy (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae)

PubMed Central

Smith, Sarah M.; Cognato, Anthony I.

2014-01-01

Abstract The Nearctic bark beetle genus Scolytus Geoffroy was revised based in part on a molecular and morphological phylogeny. Monophyly of the native species was tested using mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (28S, CAD, ArgK) genes and 43 morphological characters in parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Parsimony analyses of molecular and combined datasets provided mixed results while Bayesian analysis recovered most nodes with posterior probabilities >90%. Native hardwood- and conifer-feeding Scolytus species were recovered as paraphyletic. Native Nearctic species were recovered as paraphyletic with hardwood-feeding species sister to Palearctic hardwood-feeding species rather than to native conifer-feeding species. The Nearctic conifer-feeding species were monophyletic. Twenty-five species were recognized. Four new synonyms were discovered: Scolytus praeceps LeConte, 1868 (= Scolytus abietis Blackman, 1934; = Scolytus opacus Blackman, 1934), Scolytus reflexus Blackman, 1934 (= Scolytus virgatus Bright, 1972; = Scolytus wickhami Blackman, 1934). Two species were reinstated: Scolytus fiskei Blackman, 1934 and Scolytus silvaticus Bright, 1972. A diagnosis, description, distribution, host records and images were provided for each species and a key is presented to all species. PMID:25408617

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education

PubMed Central

Belland, Brian R.; Walker, Andrew E.; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-01-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains. This leaves much quantitative scaffolding literature not covered by existing meta-analyses. To address this gap, this study used Bayesian network meta-analysis to synthesize within-subjects (pre–post) differences resulting from scaffolding in 56 studies. We generated the posterior distribution using 20,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Scaffolding has a consistently strong effect across student populations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) disciplines, and assessment levels, and a strong effect when used with most problem-centered instructional models (exception: inquiry-based learning and modeling visualization) and educational levels (exception: secondary education). Results also indicate some promising areas for future scaffolding research, including scaffolding among students with learning disabilities, for whom the effect size was particularly large (ḡ = 3.13). PMID:29200508

Impact of Colic Pain as a Significant Factor for Predicting the Stone Free Rate of One-Session Shock Wave Lithotripsy for Treating Ureter Stones: A Bayesian Logistic Regression Model Analysis

PubMed Central

Chung, Doo Yong; Cho, Kang Su; Lee, Dae Hun; Han, Jang Hee; Kang, Dong Hyuk; Jung, Hae Do; Kown, Jong Kyou; Ham, Won Sik; Choi, Young Deuk; Lee, Joo Yong

2015-01-01

Purpose This study was conducted to evaluate colic pain as a prognostic pretreatment factor that can influence ureter stone clearance and to estimate the probability of stone-free status in shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) patients with a ureter stone. Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1,418 patients who underwent their first SWL between 2005 and 2013. Among these patients, 551 had a ureter stone measuring 4–20 mm and were thus eligible for our analyses. The colic pain as the chief complaint was defined as either subjective flank pain during history taking and physical examination. Propensity-scores for established for colic pain was calculated for each patient using multivariate logistic regression based upon the following covariates: age, maximal stone length (MSL), and mean stone density (MSD). Each factor was evaluated as predictor for stone-free status by Bayesian and non-Bayesian logistic regression model. Results After propensity-score matching, 217 patients were extracted in each group from the total patient cohort. There were no statistical differences in variables used in propensity- score matching. One-session success and stone-free rate were also higher in the painful group (73.7% and 71.0%, respectively) than in the painless group (63.6% and 60.4%, respectively). In multivariate non-Bayesian and Bayesian logistic regression models, a painful stone, shorter MSL, and lower MSD were significant factors for one-session stone-free status in patients who underwent SWL. Conclusions Colic pain in patients with ureter calculi was one of the significant predicting factors including MSL and MSD for one-session stone-free status of SWL. PMID:25902059

Bayesian wavelet PCA methodology for turbomachinery damage diagnosis under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shengli; Jiang, Xiaomo; Huang, Jinzhi; Yang, Shuhua; Wang, Xiaofang

2016-12-01

Centrifugal compressor often suffers various defects such as impeller cracking, resulting in forced outage of the total plant. Damage diagnostics and condition monitoring of such a turbomachinery system has become an increasingly important and powerful tool to prevent potential failure in components and reduce unplanned forced outage and further maintenance costs, while improving reliability, availability and maintainability of a turbomachinery system. This paper presents a probabilistic signal processing methodology for damage diagnostics using multiple time history data collected from different locations of a turbomachine, considering data uncertainty and multivariate correlation. The proposed methodology is based on the integration of three advanced state-of-the-art data mining techniques: discrete wavelet packet transform, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and probabilistic principal component analysis. The multiresolution wavelet analysis approach is employed to decompose a time series signal into different levels of wavelet coefficients. These coefficients represent multiple time-frequency resolutions of a signal. Bayesian hypothesis testing is then applied to each level of wavelet coefficient to remove possible imperfections. The ratio of posterior odds Bayesian approach provides a direct means to assess whether there is imperfection in the decomposed coefficients, thus avoiding over-denoising. Power spectral density estimated by the Welch method is utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of Bayesian wavelet cleansing method. Furthermore, the probabilistic principal component analysis approach is developed to reduce dimensionality of multiple time series and to address multivariate correlation and data uncertainty for damage diagnostics. The proposed methodology and generalized framework is demonstrated with a set of sensor data collected from a real-world centrifugal compressor with impeller cracks, through both time series and contour analyses of vibration signal and principal components.

Bayesian State-Space Modelling of Conventional Acoustic Tracking Provides Accurate Descriptors of Home Range Behavior in a Small-Bodied Coastal Fish Species

PubMed Central

Alós, Josep; Palmer, Miquel; Balle, Salvador; Arlinghaus, Robert

2016-01-01

State-space models (SSM) are increasingly applied in studies involving biotelemetry-generated positional data because they are able to estimate movement parameters from positions that are unobserved or have been observed with non-negligible observational error. Popular telemetry systems in marine coastal fish consist of arrays of omnidirectional acoustic receivers, which generate a multivariate time-series of detection events across the tracking period. Here we report a novel Bayesian fitting of a SSM application that couples mechanistic movement properties within a home range (a specific case of random walk weighted by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) with a model of observational error typical for data obtained from acoustic receiver arrays. We explored the performance and accuracy of the approach through simulation modelling and extensive sensitivity analyses of the effects of various configurations of movement properties and time-steps among positions. Model results show an accurate and unbiased estimation of the movement parameters, and in most cases the simulated movement parameters were properly retrieved. Only in extreme situations (when fast swimming speeds are combined with pooling the number of detections over long time-steps) the model produced some bias that needs to be accounted for in field applications. Our method was subsequently applied to real acoustic tracking data collected from a small marine coastal fish species, the pearly razorfish, Xyrichtys novacula. The Bayesian SSM we present here constitutes an alternative for those used to the Bayesian way of reasoning. Our Bayesian SSM can be easily adapted and generalized to any species, thereby allowing studies in freely roaming animals on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of home ranges and territory establishment, both in fishes and in other taxa. PMID:27119718

Measuring DAC metal-silicate partitioning experiments by electron microprobe: Thickness, fluorescence, and oxide spheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, E. S.; Wade, J.; Laurenz, V.; Kearns, S.; Buse, B.; Rubie, D. C.

2017-12-01

The process by which the Earth's core segregated, and its resulting composition, can be inferred from the composition of the bulk silicate Earth if the partitioning of various elements into metal at relevant conditions is known. As such, partitioning experiments between liquid metal and liquid silicate over a wide range of pressures and temperatures are frequently performed to constrain the partitioning behaviour of many elements. The use of diamond anvil cell experiments to access more extreme conditions than those achievable by larger volume presses is becoming increasingly common. With a volume several orders of magnitude smaller than conventional samples, these experiments present unique analytical challenges. Typically, sample preparation is performed by FIB as a 2 mm thick slice, containing a small iron ball surrounded by a layer of silicate melt. This implies that analyses made by EPMA will be made near boundaries where fluoresced X-rays from the neighbouring phase may be significant. By measuring and simulating synthetic samples, we investigate thickness and fluorescence limitations. We find that for typical sample geometries, a thickness of 2 μm contains the entire analytical volume for standard 15kV analyses of metals. Fluoresced X-rays from light elements into the metal are below detection limits if there is no direct electron interaction with the silicate. Continuum fluorescence from higher atomic number elements from the metal into silicate poses significant difficulties [1]. This can cause metal-silicate partition coefficients of siderophile elements to be underestimated. Finally, we examine the origin and analytical consequences of oxide-rich exsolutions that are frequently found in the metal phase of such experiments. These are spherical with diameters of 100 nm and can be sparsely to densely packed. They appear to be carbon-rich and result in low analytical totals by violating the assumption of homogeneity in matrix corrections (e.g. φρz), which results in incorrect relative abundances. Using low kV analysis, we explore their origin i.e. whether they originate from quench exsolution or dynamic processes. Identifying their composition is key to understanding their origin and the interpretation of DAC experimental results.[1] Wade J & Wood B. J. (2012) PEPI 192-193, 54-58.

Inference and Analysis of Population Structure Using Genetic Data and Network Theory.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Templeton, Alan R; Bar-David, Shirli

2016-04-01

Clustering individuals to subpopulations based on genetic data has become commonplace in many genetic studies. Inference about population structure is most often done by applying model-based approaches, aided by visualization using distance-based approaches such as multidimensional scaling. While existing distance-based approaches suffer from a lack of statistical rigor, model-based approaches entail assumptions of prior conditions such as that the subpopulations are at Hardy-Weinberg equilibria. Here we present a distance-based approach for inference about population structure using genetic data by defining population structure using network theory terminology and methods. A network is constructed from a pairwise genetic-similarity matrix of all sampled individuals. The community partition, a partition of a network to dense subgraphs, is equated with population structure, a partition of the population to genetically related groups. Community-detection algorithms are used to partition the network into communities, interpreted as a partition of the population to subpopulations. The statistical significance of the structure can be estimated by using permutation tests to evaluate the significance of the partition's modularity, a network theory measure indicating the quality of community partitions. To further characterize population structure, a new measure of the strength of association (SA) for an individual to its assigned community is presented. The strength of association distribution (SAD) of the communities is analyzed to provide additional population structure characteristics, such as the relative amount of gene flow experienced by the different subpopulations and identification of hybrid individuals. Human genetic data and simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the analyses. The approach presented here provides a novel, computationally efficient model-free method for inference about population structure that does not entail assumption of prior conditions. The method is implemented in the software NetStruct (available at https://giligreenbaum.wordpress.com/software/). Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

Complete cpDNA genome sequence of Smilax china and phylogenetic placement of Liliales--influences of gene partitions and taxon sampling.

PubMed

Liu, Juan; Qi, Zhe-Chen; Zhao, Yun-Peng; Fu, Cheng-Xin; Jenny Xiang, Qiu-Yun

2012-09-01

The complete nucleotide sequence of the chloroplast genome (cpDNA) of Smilax china L. (Smilacaceae) is reported. It is the first complete cp genome sequence in Liliales. Genomic analyses were conducted to examine the rate and pattern of cpDNA genome evolution in Smilax relative to other major lineages of monocots. The cpDNA genomic sequences were combined with those available for Lilium to evaluate the phylogenetic position of Liliales and to investigate the influence of taxon sampling, gene sampling, gene function, natural selection, and substitution rate on phylogenetic inference in monocots. Phylogenetic analyses using sequence data of gene groups partitioned according to gene function, selection force, and total substitution rate demonstrated evident impacts of these factors on phylogenetic inference of monocots and the placement of Liliales, suggesting potential evolutionary convergence or adaptation of some cpDNA genes in monocots. Our study also demonstrated that reduced taxon sampling reduced the bootstrap support for the placement of Liliales in the cpDNA phylogenomic analysis. Analyses of sequences of 77 protein genes with some missing data and sequences of 81 genes (all protein genes plus the rRNA genes) support a sister relationship of Liliales to the commelinids-Asparagales clade, consistent with the APG III system. Analyses of 63 cpDNA protein genes for 32 taxa with few missing data, however, support a sister relationship of Liliales (represented by Smilax and Lilium) to Dioscoreales-Pandanales. Topology tests indicated that these two alignments do not significantly differ given any of these three cpDNA genomic sequence data sets. Furthermore, we found no saturation effect of the data, suggesting that the cpDNA genomic sequence data used in the study are appropriate for monocot phylogenetic study and long-branch attraction is unlikely to be the cause to explain the result of two well-supported, conflict placements of Liliales. Further analyses using sufficient nuclear data remain necessary to evaluate these two phylogenetic hypotheses regarding the position of Liliales and to address the causes of signal conflict among genes and partitions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods for selecting fixed-effect models for heterogeneous codon evolution, with comments on their application to gene and genome data.

PubMed

Bao, Le; Gu, Hong; Dunn, Katherine A; Bielawski, Joseph P

2007-02-08

Models of codon evolution have proven useful for investigating the strength and direction of natural selection. In some cases, a priori biological knowledge has been used successfully to model heterogeneous evolutionary dynamics among codon sites. These are called fixed-effect models, and they require that all codon sites are assigned to one of several partitions which are permitted to have independent parameters for selection pressure, evolutionary rate, transition to transversion ratio or codon frequencies. For single gene analysis, partitions might be defined according to protein tertiary structure, and for multiple gene analysis partitions might be defined according to a gene's functional category. Given a set of related fixed-effect models, the task of selecting the model that best fits the data is not trivial. In this study, we implement a set of fixed-effect codon models which allow for different levels of heterogeneity among partitions in the substitution process. We describe strategies for selecting among these models by a backward elimination procedure, Akaike information criterion (AIC) or a corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). We evaluate the performance of these model selection methods via a simulation study, and make several recommendations for real data analysis. Our simulation study indicates that the backward elimination procedure can provide a reliable method for model selection in this setting. We also demonstrate the utility of these models by application to a single-gene dataset partitioned according to tertiary structure (abalone sperm lysin), and a multi-gene dataset partitioned according to the functional category of the gene (flagellar-related proteins of Listeria). Fixed-effect models have advantages and disadvantages. Fixed-effect models are desirable when data partitions are known to exhibit significant heterogeneity or when a statistical test of such heterogeneity is desired. They have the disadvantage of requiring a priori knowledge for partitioning sites. We recommend: (i) selection of models by using backward elimination rather than AIC or AICc, (ii) use a stringent cut-off, e.g., p = 0.0001, and (iii) conduct sensitivity analysis of results. With thoughtful application, fixed-effect codon models should provide a useful tool for large scale multi-gene analyses.

Intensified Separation of Steviol Glycosides from a Crude Aqueous Extract of Stevia rebaudiana Leaves Using Centrifugal Partition Chromatography.

PubMed

Hubert, Jane; Borie, Nicolas; Chollet, Sébastien; Perret, Joël; Barbet-Massin, Claire; Berger, Monique; Daydé, Jean; Renault, Jean-Hugues

2015-11-01

Aqueous extracts of Stevia rebaudiana leaves have been approved since 2008 by the Joint Expert Committee for Food Additives as sugar substitutes in many food and beverages in Western and Far East Asian countries. The compounds responsible for the natural sweetness of Stevia leaves include a diversity of diterpenoid glycosides derived from a steviol skeleton. These steviol glycosides also exhibit a low calorific value as well as promising therapeutic applications, particularly for the treatment of sugar metabolism disturbances. In this work, centrifugal partition chromatography is proposed as an efficient technical alternative to purify steviol glycosides from crude aqueous extracts of Stevia leaves on a multigram scale. Two different commercial instruments, including an ASCPC250® and a FCPE300® made of columns containing 1890 and 231 twin-cells, respectively, were evaluated and compared. All experiments were performed with a polar biphasic solvent system composed of ethyl acetate, n-butanol, and water in a gradient elution mode. When using the 1890 partition cell centrifugal partition chromatography column of 250 mL, 42 mg of stevioside, 68 mg of dulcoside A, and 172 mg of rebaudioside A, three major constituents of the initial extract were obtained from 1 g of the initial mixture at purities of 81%, 83%, and 99%, respectively. The productivity was further improved by intensifying the procedure on the 231 partition cell centrifugal partition chromatography column of 303 mL with the sample mass loading increased up to 5 g, resulting in the recovery of 1.2 g of stevioside, 100 mg of dulcoside A, and 1.1 g of rebaudioside A at purities of 79%, 62%, and 98%, respectively. The structures of the isolated compounds were validated by HPLC-UV, ESI-MS, (1)H, and (13)C NMR analyses. Altogether, the results demonstrate that the column design (i.e., the partition cell number) is an important aspect to be considered for a larger scale centrifugal partition chromatography isolation of Stevia-derived natural sweeteners. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

2016-07-19

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'. © 2016 The Authors.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

2016-01-01

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’. PMID:27325827

Inferences of biogeographical histories within subfamily Hyacinthoideae using S-DIVA and Bayesian binary MCMC analysis implemented in RASP (Reconstruct Ancestral State in Phylogenies)

PubMed Central

Ali, Syed Shujait; Yu, Yan; Pfosser, Martin; Wetschnig, Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Subfamily Hyacinthoideae (Hyacinthaceae) comprises more than 400 species. Members are distributed in sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar, India, eastern Asia, the Mediterranean region and Eurasia. Hyacinthoideae, like many other plant lineages, show disjunct distribution patterns. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the biogeographical history of Hyacinthoideae based on phylogenetic analyses, to find the possible ancestral range of Hyacinthoideae and to identify factors responsible for the current disjunct distribution pattern. Methods Parsimony and Bayesian approaches were applied to obtain phylogenetic trees, based on sequences of the trnL-F region. Biogeographical inferences were obtained by applying statistical dispersal-vicariance analysis (S-DIVA) and Bayesian binary MCMC (BBM) analysis implemented in RASP (Reconstruct Ancestral State in Phylogenies). Key Results S-DIVA and BBM analyses suggest that the Hyacinthoideae clade seem to have originated in sub-Saharan Africa. Dispersal and vicariance played vital roles in creating the disjunct distribution pattern. Results also suggest an early dispersal to the Mediterranean region, and thus the northward route (from sub-Saharan Africa to Mediterranean) of dispersal is plausible for members of subfamily Hyacinthoideae. Conclusions Biogeographical analyses reveal that subfamily Hyacinthoideae has originated in sub-Saharan Africa. S-DIVA indicates an early dispersal event to the Mediterranean region followed by a vicariance event, which resulted in Hyacintheae and Massonieae tribes. By contrast, BBM analysis favours dispersal to the Mediterranean region, eastern Asia and Europe. Biogeographical analysis suggests that sub-Saharan Africa and the Mediterranean region have played vital roles as centres of diversification and radiation within subfamily Hyacinthoideae. In this bimodal distribution pattern, sub-Saharan Africa is the primary centre of diversity and the Mediterranean region is the secondary centre of diversity. Sub-Saharan Africa was the source area for radiation toward Madagascar, the Mediterranean region and India. Radiations occurred from the Mediterranean region to eastern Asia, Europe, western Asia and India. PMID:22039008

EVALUATION OF SOLID ADSORBENTS FOR THE COLLECTION AND ANALYSES OF AMBIENT BIOGENIC VOLATILE ORGANICS

EPA Science Inventory

Micrometeorological flux measurements of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) usually require that large volumes of air be collected (whole air samples) or focused during the sampling process (cryogenic trapping or gas-solid partitioning on adsorbents) in order to achiev...

Should Perioperative Supplemental Oxygen Be Routinely Recommended for Surgical Patients? A Bayesian Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kao, Lillian S.; Millas, Stefanos G.; Pedroza, Claudia; Tyson, Jon E.; Lally, Kevin P.

2012-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to use updated data and Bayesian methods to evaluate the effectiveness of hyperoxia to reduce surgical site infections (SSIs) and/or mortality in both colorectal and all surgical patients. Because few trials assessed potential harms of hyperoxia, hazards were not included. Background Use of hyperoxia to reduce SSIs is controversial. Three recent meta-analyses have had conflicting conclusions. Methods A systematic literature search and review were performed. Traditional fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analyses and Bayesian meta-analysis were performed to evaluate SSIs and mortality. Results Traditional meta-analysis yielded a relative risk of an SSI with hyperoxia among all surgery patients of 0.84 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.73–0.97) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.61–1.16) for the fixed-effect and random effects models respectively. The probabilities of any risk reduction in SSIs among all surgery patients were 77%, 81%, and 83% for skeptical, neutral, and enthusiastic priors. Subset analysis of colorectal surgery patients increased the probabilities to 86%, 89%, and 92%. The probabilities of at least a 10% reduction were 57%, 62%, and 68% for all surgical patients and 71%, 75%, and 80% among the colorectal surgery subset. Conclusions There is a moderately high probability of a benefit to hyperoxia in reducing SSIs in colorectal surgery patients; however, the magnitude of benefit is relatively small and might not exceed treatment hazards. Further studies should focus on generalizability to other patient populations or on treatment hazards and other outcomes. PMID:23160100

Using multi-level Bayesian lesion-symptom mapping to probe the body-part-specificity of gesture imitation skills.

PubMed

Achilles, Elisabeth I S; Weiss, Peter H; Fink, Gereon R; Binder, Ellen; Price, Cathy J; Hope, Thomas M H

2017-11-01

Past attempts to identify the neural substrates of hand and finger imitation skills in the left hemisphere of the brain have yielded inconsistent results. Here, we analyse those associations in a large sample of 257 left hemisphere stroke patients. By introducing novel Bayesian methods, we characterise lesion symptom associations at three levels: the voxel-level, the single-region level (using anatomically defined regions), and the region-pair level. The results are inconsistent across those three levels and we argue that each level of analysis makes assumptions which constrain the results it can produce. Regardless of the inconsistencies across levels, and contrary to past studies which implicated differential neural substrates for hand and finger imitation, we find no consistent voxels or regions, where damage affects one imitation skill and not the other, at any of the three analysis levels. Our novel Bayesian approach indicates that any apparent differences appear to be driven by an increased sensitivity of hand imitation skills to lesions that also impair finger imitation. In our analyses, the results of the highest level of analysis (region-pairs) emphasise a role of the primary somatosensory and motor cortices, and the occipital lobe in imitation. We argue that this emphasis supports an account of both imitation tasks based on direct sensor-motor connections, which throws doubt on past accounts which imply the need for an intermediate (e.g. body-part-coding) system of representation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A phylogenetic framework for root lesion nematodes of the genus Pratylenchus (Nematoda): Evidence from 18S and D2-D3 expansion segments of 28S ribosomal RNA genes and morphological characters.

PubMed

Subbotin, Sergei A; Ragsdale, Erik J; Mullens, Teresa; Roberts, Philip A; Mundo-Ocampo, Manuel; Baldwin, James G

2008-08-01

The root lesion nematodes of the genus Pratylenchus Filipjev, 1936 are migratory endoparasites of plant roots, considered among the most widespread and important nematode parasites in a variety of crops. We obtained gene sequences from the D2 and D3 expansion segments of 28S rRNA partial and 18S rRNA from 31 populations belonging to 11 valid and two unidentified species of root lesion nematodes and five outgroup taxa. These datasets were analyzed using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. The alignments were generated using the secondary structure models for these molecules and analyzed with Bayesian inference under the standard models and the complex model, considering helices under the doublet model and loops and bulges under the general time reversible model. The phylogenetic informativeness of morphological characters is tested by reconstruction of their histories on rRNA based trees using parallel parsimony and Bayesian approaches. Phylogenetic and sequence analyses of the 28S D2-D3 dataset with 145 accessions for 28 species and 18S dataset with 68 accessions for 15 species confirmed among large numbers of geographical diverse isolates that most classical morphospecies are monophyletic. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least six distinct major clades of examined Pratylenchus species and these clades are generally congruent with those defined by characters derived from lip patterns, numbers of lip annules, and spermatheca shape. Morphological results suggest the need for sophisticated character discovery and analysis for morphology based phylogenetics in nematodes.

Bayesian regression analyses of radiation modality effects on pericardial and pleural effusion and survival in esophageal cancer.

PubMed

He, Liru; Chapple, Andrew; Liao, Zhongxing; Komaki, Ritsuko; Thall, Peter F; Lin, Steven H

2016-10-01

To evaluate radiation modality effects on pericardial effusion (PCE), pleural effusion (PE) and survival in esophageal cancer (EC) patients. We analyzed data from 470 EC patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Bayesian semi-competing risks (SCR) regression models were fit to assess effects of radiation modality and prognostic covariates on the risks of PCE and PE, and death either with or without these preceding events. Bayesian piecewise exponential regression models were fit for overall survival, the time to PCE or death, and the time to PE or death. All models included propensity score as a covariate to correct for potential selection bias. Median times to onset of PCE and PE after RT were 7.1 and 6.1months for IMRT, and 6.5 and 5.4months for 3DCRT, respectively. Compared to 3DCRT, the IMRT group had significantly lower risks of PE, PCE, and death. The respective probabilities of a patient being alive without either PCE or PE at 3-years and 5-years were 0.29 and 0.21 for IMRT compared to 0.13 and 0.08 for 3DCRT. In the SCR regression analyses, IMRT was associated with significantly lower risks of PCE (HR=0.26) and PE (HR=0.49), and greater overall survival (probability of beneficial effect (pbe)>0.99), after controlling for known clinical prognostic factors. IMRT reduces the incidence and postpones the onset of PCE and PE, and increases survival probability, compared to 3DCRT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental exposure to manganese in air: Associations with tremor and motor function.

PubMed

Bowler, Rosemarie M; Beseler, Cheryl L; Gocheva, Vihra V; Colledge, Michelle; Kornblith, Erica S; Julian, Jaime R; Kim, Yangho; Bollweg, George; Lobdell, Danelle T

2016-01-15

Manganese (Mn) inhalation has been associated with neuropsychological and neurological sequelae in exposed workers. Few environmental epidemiologic studies have examined the potentially neurotoxic effects of Mn exposure in ambient air on motor function and hand tremor in adult community residents. Mn exposed residents were recruited in two Ohio towns: Marietta, a town near a ferro-manganese smelter, and East Liverpool, a town adjacent to a facility processing, crushing, screening, and packaging Mn products. Chronic (≥ 10 years) exposure to ambient air Mn in adult residents and effects on neuropsychological and neurological outcomes were investigated. Participants from Marietta (n=100) and East Liverpool (n=86) were combined for analyses. AERMOD dispersion modeling of fixed-site outdoor air monitoring data estimated Mn inhalation over a ten year period. Adult Mn-exposed residents' psychomotor ability was assessed using Finger Tapping, Hand Dynamometer, Grooved Pegboard, and the Computerized Adaptive Testing System (CATSYS) Tremor system. Bayesian structural equation modeling was used to assess associations between air-Mn and motor function and tremor. Air-Mn exposure was significantly correlated in bivariate analyses with the tremor test (CATSYS) for intensity, center frequency and harmonic index. The Bayesian path analysis model showed associations of air-Mn with the CATSYS non-dominant center frequency and harmonic index; while the Bayesian structural equation model revealed associations between air-Mn and lower Finger Tapping scores. Household income was significantly associated with motor dysfunction but not with tremor. Tremor and motor function were associated with higher exposure to airborne Mn. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of melt composition on the partitioning of trace elements between titanite and silicate melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowatke, S.; Klemme, S.

2003-04-01

The aim of this study is to systematically investigate the influence of melt composition on the partitioning of trace elements between titanite and different silicate melts. Titanite was chosen because of its important role as an accessory mineral, particularly with regard to intermediate to silicic alkaline and calc-alkaline magmas [e.g. 1] and of its relative constant mineral composition over a wide range of bulk compositions. Experiments at atmospheric pressure were performed at temperatures between 1150°C and 1050°C. Bulk compositions were chosen to represent a basaltic andesite (SH3 - 53% SiO2), a dacite (SH2 - 65 SiO2) and a rhyolite (SH1 - 71% SiO2). Furthermore, two additional experimental series were conducted to investigate the effect of Al-Na and the Na-K ratio of melts on partitioning. Starting materials consisted of glasses that were doped with 23 trace elements including some selected rare earth elements (La, Ce, Pr, Sm, Gd, Lu), high field strength elements (Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta) and large ion lithophile elements (Cs, Rb, Ba) and Th and U. The experimental run products were analysed for trace elements using secondary ion mass spectrometry at Heidelberg University. Preliminary results indicate a strong effect of melt composition on trace element partition coefficients. Partition coefficients for rare-earth elements uniformly show a convex-upward shape [2, 3], since titanite accommodates the middle rare-earth elements more readily than the light rare-earth elements or the heavy rare-earth elements. Partition coefficients for the rare-earth elements follow a parabolic trend when plotted against ionic radius. The shape of the parabola is very similar for all studied bulk compositions, the position of the parabola, however, is strongly dependent on bulk composition. For example, isothermal rare-earth element partition coefficients (such as La) are incompatible (D<1) in alkali-rich silicate melts and strongly compatible (D>>1) in alkali-poor melt compositions. From our experimental data we present an model that combines the influence of the crystal lattice on partitioning with the effect of melt composition on trace element partition coefficients. [1] Nakada, S. (1991) Am. Mineral. 76: 548-560 [2] Green, T.H. and Pearson, N.J. (1986) Chem. Geol. 55: 105-119 [3] Tiepolo, M.; Oberti, R. and Vannucci, R. (2002) Chem. Geol. 191: 105-119

Determination of key diffusion and partition parameters and their use in migration modelling of benzophenone from low-density polyethylene (LDPE) into different foodstuffs.

PubMed

Maia, Joaquim; Rodríguez-Bernaldo de Quirós, Ana; Sendón, Raquel; Cruz, José Manuel; Seiler, Annika; Franz, Roland; Simoneau, Catherine; Castle, Laurence; Driffield, Malcolm; Mercea, Peter; Oldring, Peter; Tosa, Valer; Paseiro, Perfecto

2016-01-01

The mass transport process (migration) of a model substance, benzophenone (BZP), from LDPE into selected foodstuffs at three temperatures was studied. A mathematical model based on Fick's Second Law of Diffusion was used to simulate the migration process and a good correlation between experimental and predicted values was found. The acquired results contribute to a better understanding of this phenomenon and the parameters so-derived were incorporated into the migration module of the recently launched FACET tool (Flavourings, Additives and Food Contact Materials Exposure Tool). The migration tests were carried out at different time-temperature conditions, and BZP was extracted from LDPE and analysed by HPLC-DAD. With all data, the parameters for migration modelling (diffusion and partition coefficients) were calculated. Results showed that the diffusion coefficients (within both the polymer and the foodstuff) are greatly affected by the temperature and food's physical state, whereas the partition coefficient was affected significantly only by food characteristics, particularly fat content.

In situ quantification of β-carotene partitioning in oil-in-water emulsions by confocal Raman microscopy.

PubMed

Wan Mohamad, W A Fahmi; Buckow, Roman; Augustin, MaryAnn; McNaughton, Don

2017-10-15

Confocal Raman microscopy (CRM) was able to quantify the β-carotene concentration in oil droplets and determine the partitioning characteristics of β-carotene within the emulsion system in situ. The results were validated by a conventional method involving solvent extraction of β-carotene separately from the total emulsion as well as the aqueous phase separated by centrifugation, and quantification by absorption spectrophotometry. CRM also enabled the localization of β-carotene in an emulsion. From the Raman image, the β-carotene partitioning between the aqueous and oil phases of palm olein-in-water emulsions stabilized by whey protein isolate (WPI) was observed. Increasing the concentration of β-carotene in an emulsion (from 0.1 to 0.3g/kg emulsion) with a fixed gross composition (10% palm olein:2% WPI) decreased the concentration of β-carotene in the oil droplet. CRM is a powerful tool for in situ analyses of components in heterogeneous systems such as emulsions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Defining and Evaluating a Core Genome Multilocus Sequence Typing Scheme for Genome-Wide Typing of Clostridium difficile.

PubMed

Bletz, Stefan; Janezic, Sandra; Harmsen, Dag; Rupnik, Maja; Mellmann, Alexander

2018-06-01

Clostridium difficile , recently renamed Clostridioides difficile , is the most common cause of antibiotic-associated nosocomial gastrointestinal infections worldwide. To differentiate endogenous infections and transmission events, highly discriminatory subtyping is necessary. Today, methods based on whole-genome sequencing data are increasingly used to subtype bacterial pathogens; however, frequently a standardized methodology and typing nomenclature are missing. Here we report a core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) approach developed for C. difficile Initially, we determined the breadth of the C. difficile population based on all available MLST sequence types with Bayesian inference (BAPS). The resulting BAPS partitions were used in combination with C. difficile clade information to select representative isolates that were subsequently used to define cgMLST target genes. Finally, we evaluated the novel cgMLST scheme with genomes from 3,025 isolates. BAPS grouping ( n = 6 groups) together with the clade information led to a total of 11 representative isolates that were included for cgMLST definition and resulted in 2,270 cgMLST genes that were present in all isolates. Overall, 2,184 to 2,268 cgMLST targets were detected in the genome sequences of 70 outbreak-associated and reference strains, and on average 99.3% cgMLST targets (1,116 to 2,270 targets) were present in 2,954 genomes downloaded from the NCBI database, underlining the representativeness of the cgMLST scheme. Moreover, reanalyzing different cluster scenarios with cgMLST were concordant to published single nucleotide variant analyses. In conclusion, the novel cgMLST is representative for the whole C. difficile population, is highly discriminatory in outbreak situations, and provides a unique nomenclature facilitating interlaboratory exchange. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Mitogenome Phylogenetics: The Impact of Using Single Regions and Partitioning Schemes on Topology, Substitution Rate and Divergence Time Estimation

PubMed Central

Duchêne, Sebastián; Archer, Frederick I.; Vilstrup, Julia; Caballero, Susana; Morin, Phillip A.

2011-01-01

The availability of mitochondrial genome sequences is growing as a result of recent technological advances in molecular biology. In phylogenetic analyses, the complete mitogenome is increasingly becoming the marker of choice, usually providing better phylogenetic resolution and precision relative to traditional markers such as cytochrome b (CYTB) and the control region (CR). In some cases, the differences in phylogenetic estimates between mitogenomic and single-gene markers have yielded incongruent conclusions. By comparing phylogenetic estimates made from different genes, we identified the most informative mitochondrial regions and evaluated the minimum amount of data necessary to reproduce the same results as the mitogenome. We compared results among individual genes and the mitogenome for recently published complete mitogenome datasets of selected delphinids (Delphinidae) and killer whales (genus Orcinus). Using Bayesian phylogenetic methods, we investigated differences in estimation of topologies, divergence dates, and clock-like behavior among genes for both datasets. Although the most informative regions were not the same for each taxonomic group (COX1, CYTB, ND3 and ATP6 for Orcinus, and ND1, COX1 and ND4 for Delphinidae), in both cases they were equivalent to less than a quarter of the complete mitogenome. This suggests that gene information content can vary among groups, but can be adequately represented by a portion of the complete sequence. Although our results indicate that complete mitogenomes provide the highest phylogenetic resolution and most precise date estimates, a minimum amount of data can be selected using our approach when the complete sequence is unavailable. Studies based on single genes can benefit from the addition of a few more mitochondrial markers, producing topologies and date estimates similar to those obtained using the entire mitogenome. PMID:22073275

Long-distance seed and pollen dispersal inferred from spatial genetic structure in the very low-density rainforest tree, Baillonella toxisperma Pierre, in Central Africa.

PubMed

Ndiade-Bourobou, D; Hardy, O J; Favreau, B; Moussavou, H; Nzengue, E; Mignot, A; Bouvet, J-M

2010-11-01

We analysed the spatial distribution of genetic diversity to infer gene flow for Baillonella toxisperma Pierre (Moabi), a threatened entomophilous pollinated and animal-dispersed Central African tree, with typically low density (5-7 adults trees/km(2)). Fifteen nuclear and three universal chloroplast microsatellites markers were used to type 247 individuals localized in three contiguous areas with differing past logging intensity. These three areas were within a natural forest block of approximately 2886 km(2) in Gabon. Expected heterozygosity and chloroplast diversity were He(nuc) = 0.570 and H(cp) = 0.761, respectively. F(IS) was only significant in one area (F(IS) = 0.076, P < 0.01) and could be attributed to selfing. For nuclear loci, Bayesian clustering did not detect discrete gene pools within and between the three areas and global differentiation (F(STnuc) = 0.007, P > 0.05) was not significant, suggesting that they are one population. At the level of the whole forest, both nuclear and chloroplast markers revealed a weak correlation between genetic relatedness and spatial distance between individuals: Sp(nuc) = 0.003 and Sp(cp) = 0.015, respectively. The extent of gene flow (σ) was partitioned into global gene flow (σ(g)) from 6.6 to 9.9 km, seed dispersal (σ(s)) from 4.0 to 6.3 km and pollen dispersal (σ(p)) from 9.8 to 10.8 km. These uncommonly high dispersal distances indicate that low-density canopy trees in African rainforests could be connected by extensive gene flow, although, given the current threats facing many seed disperser species in Central Africa, this may no longer be the case. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

PubMed

Robin, V V; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2010-10-13

Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies. We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp) obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species. Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of this region.

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses--an overview and application of NetMetaXL.

PubMed

Brown, Stephen; Hutton, Brian; Clifford, Tammy; Coyle, Doug; Grima, Daniel; Wells, George; Cameron, Chris

2014-09-29

The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL's interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent critical appraisal of network meta-analyses, enhanced standardization of reporting, and integration with health economic evaluations which are frequently Excel-based.

A semiparametric Bayesian proportional hazards model for interval censored data with frailty effects.

PubMed

Henschel, Volkmar; Engel, Jutta; Hölzel, Dieter; Mansmann, Ulrich

2009-02-10

Multivariate analysis of interval censored event data based on classical likelihood methods is notoriously cumbersome. Likelihood inference for models which additionally include random effects are not available at all. Developed algorithms bear problems for practical users like: matrix inversion, slow convergence, no assessment of statistical uncertainty. MCMC procedures combined with imputation are used to implement hierarchical models for interval censored data within a Bayesian framework. Two examples from clinical practice demonstrate the handling of clustered interval censored event times as well as multilayer random effects for inter-institutional quality assessment. The software developed is called survBayes and is freely available at CRAN. The proposed software supports the solution of complex analyses in many fields of clinical epidemiology as well as health services research.

Molecular diversification of Trichuris spp. from Sigmodontinae (Cricetidae) rodents from Argentina based on mitochondrial DNA sequences.

PubMed

Callejón, Rocío; Robles, María Del Rosario; Panei, Carlos Javier; Cutillas, Cristina

2016-08-01

A molecular phylogenetic hypothesis is presented for the genus Trichuris based on sequence data from mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase 1 (cox1) and cytochrome b (cob). The taxa consisted of nine populations of whipworm from five species of Sigmodontinae rodents from Argentina. Bayesian Inference, Maximum Parsimony, and Maximum Likelihood methods were used to infer phylogenies for each gene separately but also for the combined mitochondrial data and the combined mitochondrial and nuclear dataset. Phylogenetic results based on cox1 and cob mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) revealed three clades strongly resolved corresponding to three different species (Trichuris navonae, Trichuris bainae, and Trichuris pardinasi) showing phylogeographic variation, but relationships among Trichuris species were poorly resolved. Phylogenetic reconstruction based on concatenated sequences had greater phylogenetic resolution for delimiting species and populations intra-specific of Trichuris than those based on partitioned genes. Thus, populations of T. bainae and T. pardinasi could be affected by geographical factors and co-divergence parasite-host.

An Improved Statistical Solution for Global Seismicity by the HIST-ETAS Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, A.; Ogata, Y.; Katsura, K.

2010-12-01

For long-term global seismic model fitting, recent work by Chu et al. (2010) applied the spatial-temporal ETAS model (Ogata 1998) and analyzed global data partitioned into tectonic zones based on geophysical characteristics (Bird 2003), and it has shown tremendous improvements of model fitting compared with one overall global model. While the ordinary ETAS model assumes constant parameter values across the complete region analyzed, the hierarchical space-time ETAS model (HIST-ETAS, Ogata 2004) is a newly introduced approach by proposing regional distinctions of the parameters for more accurate seismic prediction. As the HIST-ETAS model has been fit to regional data of Japan (Ogata 2010), our work applies the model to describe global seismicity. Employing the Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) as an assessment method, we compare the MLE results with zone divisions considered to results obtained by an overall global model. Location dependent parameters of the model and Gutenberg-Richter b-values are optimized, and seismological interpretations are discussed.

Effect of Clustering Algorithm on Establishing Markov State Model for Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Dong, Zigang

2016-06-27

Recently, the Markov state model has been applied for kinetic analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. However, discretization of the conformational space remains a primary challenge in model building, and it is not clear how the space decomposition by distinct clustering strategies exerts influence on the model output. In this work, different clustering algorithms are employed to partition the conformational space sampled in opening and closing of fatty acid binding protein 4 as well as inactivation and activation of the epidermal growth factor receptor. Various classifications are achieved, and Markov models are set up accordingly. On the basis of the models, the total net flux and transition rate are calculated between two distinct states. Our results indicate that geometric and kinetic clustering perform equally well. The construction and outcome of Markov models are heavily dependent on the data traits. Compared to other methods, a combination of Bayesian and hierarchical clustering is feasible in identification of metastable states.

Correlational Analysis of Ordinal Data: From Pearson's "r" to Bayesian Polychoric Correlation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Jaehwa; Peters, Michelle; Mueller, Ralph O.

2010-01-01

Correlational analyses are one of the most popular quantitative methods, yet also one of the mostly frequently misused methods in social and behavioral research, especially when analyzing ordinal data from Likert or other rating scales. Although several correlational analysis options have been developed for ordinal data, there seems to be a lack…

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belland, Brian R.; Walker, Andrew E.; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-01-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains.…

Carbon partitioning between oil and carbohydrates in developing oat (Avena sativa L.) seeds.

PubMed

Ekman, Asa; Hayden, Daniel M; Dehesh, Katayoon; Bülow, Leif; Stymne, Sten

2008-01-01

Cereals accumulate starch in the endosperm as their major energy reserve in the grain. In most cereals the embryo, scutellum, and aleurone layer are high in oil, but these tissues constitute a very small part of the total seed weight. However, in oat (Avena sativa L.) most of the oil in kernels is deposited in the same endosperm cells that accumulate starch. Thus oat endosperm is a desirable model system to study the metabolic switches responsible for carbon partitioning between oil and starch synthesis. A prerequisite for such investigations is the development of an experimental system for oat that allows for metabolic flux analysis using stable and radioactive isotope labelling. An in vitro liquid culture system, developed for detached oat panicles and optimized to mimic kernel composition during different developmental stages in planta, is presented here. This system was subsequently used in analyses of carbon partitioning between lipids and carbohydrates by the administration of 14C-labelled sucrose to two cultivars having different amounts of kernel oil. The data presented in this study clearly show that a higher amount of oil in the high-oil cultivar compared with the medium-oil cultivar was due to a higher proportion of carbon partitioning into oil during seed filling, predominantly at the earlier stages of kernel development.

Alternative measures of lipophilicity: from octanol-water partitioning to IAM retention.

PubMed

Giaginis, Costas; Tsantili-Kakoulidou, Anna

2008-08-01

This review describes lipophilicity parameters currently used in drug design and QSAR studies. After a short historical overview, the complex nature of lipophilicity as the outcome of polar/nonpolar inter- and intramolecular interactions is analysed and considered as the background for the discussion of the different lipophilicity descriptors. The first part focuses on octanol-water partitioning of neutral and ionisable compounds, evaluates the efficiency of predictions and provides a short description of the experimental methods for the determination of distribution coefficients. A next part is dedicated to reversed-phase chromatographic techniques, HPLC and TLC in lipophilicity assessment. The two methods are evaluated for their efficiency to simulate octanol-water and the progress achieved in the refinement of suitable chromatographic conditions, in particular in the field of HPLC, is outlined. Liposomes as direct models of biological membranes are examined and phospolipophilicity is compared to the traditional lipophilicity concept. Difficulties associated with liposome-water partitioning are discussed. The last part focuses on Immobilised Artificial Membrane (IAM) chromatography as an alternative which combines membrane simulation with rapid measurements. IAM chromatographic retention is compared to octanol-water and liposome-water partitioning as well as to reversed-phase retention and its potential to predict biopartitioning and biological activities is discussed.

Nitrogen partitioning during Earth's accretion and core-mantle differentiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speelmanns, I. M.; Schmidt, M. W.; Liebske, C.

2017-12-01

On present day Earth, N is one of the key constituents of our atmosphere and forms the basis of life. However, the deep Earth geochemistry of N, i.e. its distribution and isotopic fractionation between Earth's deep reservoirs is not well constrained. This study investigates nitrogen partitioning between metal and silicate melts as relevant for core segregation during the accretion of planetesimals into the Earth. We have determined N-partitioning coefficients over a wide range of temperatures (1250-2000 °C), pressures (15-35 kbar) and oxygen fugacity's, the latter in the relevant range of core segregation (IW-5 to IW). Centrifuging piston cylinders were used to equilibrate and then gravitationally separate metal-silicate melt pairs. Separation of the two melts is necessary to avoid micro nugget contamination in the silicate melt at reducing conditions < IW-2.5. Complete segregation of the two melts was reached within 1 to 3 hours at 1000 g and 1600-1250 °C respectively, the interface showing a proper meniscus. The applied double capsule technique in all experiments, using an outer metallic (Pt) and inner non-metallic capsule (graphite or Al2O3), minimizes N-loss over the course of the experiments compared to single non-metallic capsules. The two quenched melts were cut apart mechanically, cleaned at the outside, their N concentrations were then analysed on bulk samples by an elemental analyser, the low abslute masses requiring careful development of analytical routines. Despite these difficulties, we were able to determine a DNmetal/silicate of 13±0.3 at IW-1 decreasing to 2.0±0.2 at IW-5.5, at 1250°C and 15 kbar, N partitioning into the core forming metal. Increasing temperature dramatically lowers the DNmetal/silicate to e.g. 0.5±0.15 at IW-4, during early core formation N was hence mildly incompatible in the metal. The results suggest that under magma ocean conditions (> 2000 oC and fO2 IW-2.5), N-partition coefficents were within a factor of 2 of unity. Hence, N did not partition into the core, which should contain negliligible quantities of N. The few available literature data [1],[2],[3] support N changing compatibility with decreasing fO2. [1] Kadik et al., (2011) Geochem Int 49.5: 429-438. [2] Roskosz et al., (2013) GCA 121: 15-28. [3] Dalou et al., (2017) EPSL 458: 141-151

Models and simulation of 3D neuronal dendritic trees using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

López-Cruz, Pedro L; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier

2011-12-01

Neuron morphology is crucial for neuronal connectivity and brain information processing. Computational models are important tools for studying dendritic morphology and its role in brain function. We applied a class of probabilistic graphical models called Bayesian networks to generate virtual dendrites from layer III pyramidal neurons from three different regions of the neocortex of the mouse. A set of 41 morphological variables were measured from the 3D reconstructions of real dendrites and their probability distributions used in a machine learning algorithm to induce the model from the data. A simulation algorithm is also proposed to obtain new dendrites by sampling values from Bayesian networks. The main advantage of this approach is that it takes into account and automatically locates the relationships between variables in the data instead of using predefined dependencies. Therefore, the methodology can be applied to any neuronal class while at the same time exploiting class-specific properties. Also, a Bayesian network was defined for each part of the dendrite, allowing the relationships to change in the different sections and to model heterogeneous developmental factors or spatial influences. Several univariate statistical tests and a novel multivariate test based on Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation confirmed that virtual dendrites were similar to real ones. The analyses of the models showed relationships that conform to current neuroanatomical knowledge and support model correctness. At the same time, studying the relationships in the models can help to identify new interactions between variables related to dendritic morphology.

Sediment classification using neural networks: An example from the site-U1344A of IODP Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojha, Maheswar; Maiti, Saumen

2016-03-01

A novel approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) has been implemented for classifying sediment boundaries using downhole log data obtained during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea slope region. The Bayesian framework in conjunction with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)/hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) learning paradigm has been applied to constrain the lithology boundaries using density, density porosity, gamma ray, sonic P-wave velocity and electrical resistivity at the Hole U1344A. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of our supervised classification methodology by comparing our findings with a conventional neural network and a Bayesian neural network optimized by scaled conjugate gradient method (SCG), and tested the robustness of the algorithm in the presence of red noise in the data. The Bayesian results based on the HMC algorithm (BNN.HMC) resolve detailed finer structures at certain depths in addition to main lithology such as silty clay, diatom clayey silt and sandy silt. Our method also recovers the lithology information from a depth ranging between 615 and 655 m Wireline log Matched depth below Sea Floor of no core recovery zone. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN based approach renders robust means for the classification of complex lithology successions at the Hole U1344A, which could be very useful for other studies and understanding the oceanic crustal inhomogeneity and structural discontinuities.

A Bayesian Analysis of the Post-seismic Deformation of the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) Earthquake: Implications for Future Earthquake Occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Simons, M.; Minson, S. E.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Hetland, E. A.

2011-12-01

We aim to quantify the spatial distribution of after-slip following the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) earthquake and its implications for the occurrence of a future Great Earthquake, particularly in the Ibaraki region of Japan. We use a Bayesian approach (CATMIP algorithm), constrained by on-land Geonet GPS time series, to infer models of after-slip to date in the Japan megathrust. Unlike traditional inverse methods, in which a single optimum model is found, the Bayesian approach allows a complete characterization of the model parameter space by searching a-posteriori estimates of the range of plausible models. We use the Kullback-Liebler information divergence as a metric of the information gain on each subsurface slip patch, to quantify the extent to which land-based geodetic observations can constrain the upper parts of the megathrust, where the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake took place. We aim to understand the relationships of spatial distribution of fault slip behavior in the different stages of the seismic cycle. We compare our post-seismic slip distributions to inter- and co-seismic slip distributions obtained through a Bayesian methodology as well as through traditional (optimization) inverse estimates in the published literature. We discuss implications of these analyses for the occurrence of a large earthquake in the Japan megathrust regions adjacent to the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Tales from Two Cores: Bayesian Re-Analyses of the Summit Lake and Blue Lakes Pollen Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, M.

2016-12-01

Pollen cores from Summit Lake and Blue Lakes in Humboldt Co., Nevada provide palaeoclimatic information for the last 2000 yearsin the NW Great Basin. Summit Lake is in the northern Black Rock Range (41.5 N -119.1 W) and is at an elevation of 1780 m. The Blue Lakes sit at an elevation of 2434 m in the southern Pine Forest Range (41.6 N -118.6 W). The distance between the two lakes is 33.5 km. The cores were originally taken to reconstruct the fire history in the NW Great Basin. In this study, stochastic climate histories are created using a Bayesian methodology as implemented in the Bclim program. This Bayesian approach takes: 1) a multivariate approach based on modern pollen analogs, 2) accounts for the non-linear and non-Gaussian relationship between the climate and the pollen proxy, and 3) accounts for the uncertainties in the radiocarbon record and climate histories. For both cores, the following climatic variables are reported for the last 2 kya: Mean Temperature of the Coldest month (MTCO), Growing Degree Days above 5 Centigrade (GDD5), the ratio of Actual to Potential Evapotranspiration (AET/PET). Because it was sequentially sampled,the Artemesia/Chenopodiaceae ratio (A/C), an indicator of wetness, and the Grasses/Shrubs (G/S) ratio, an indicator of thevegetation communities, is calculated for each section of the Summit Lake core. Bayesian changepoint analyses of the Summit Lake core indicates that there is no significant difference in the mean or variance of the A/C ratio for the last 2 kya cal BP, but there is a significant decrease in G/S ratio dating to circa 700 ya cal BP. At Summit Lake, a statistically significant decrease in the GDD5 occurs at 1.4-1.5 kya cal BP, and a significant increase in the GDD5 occurs for the last 200 ya cal BP. The GDD5 and MTCO for Blue Lakes has a significant increase at 600 ya cal BP, and afterwards decreases in the next century. The regional archaeological record will be discussed in light of these changes.

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference.

PubMed

Krishnan, Neeraja M; Seligmann, Hervé; Stewart, Caro-Beth; De Koning, A P Jason; Pollock, David D

2004-10-01

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.

BATMAN--an R package for the automated quantification of metabolites from nuclear magnetic resonance spectra using a Bayesian model.

PubMed

Hao, Jie; Astle, William; De Iorio, Maria; Ebbels, Timothy M D

2012-08-01

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra are widely used in metabolomics to obtain metabolite profiles in complex biological mixtures. Common methods used to assign and estimate concentrations of metabolites involve either an expert manual peak fitting or extra pre-processing steps, such as peak alignment and binning. Peak fitting is very time consuming and is subject to human error. Conversely, alignment and binning can introduce artefacts and limit immediate biological interpretation of models. We present the Bayesian automated metabolite analyser for NMR spectra (BATMAN), an R package that deconvolutes peaks from one-dimensional NMR spectra, automatically assigns them to specific metabolites from a target list and obtains concentration estimates. The Bayesian model incorporates information on characteristic peak patterns of metabolites and is able to account for shifts in the position of peaks commonly seen in NMR spectra of biological samples. It applies a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from a joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and obtains concentration estimates with reduced error compared with conventional numerical integration and comparable to manual deconvolution by experienced spectroscopists. http://www1.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/people/t.ebbels/ t.ebbels@imperial.ac.uk.

On-line Bayesian model updating for structural health monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocchetta, Roberto; Broggi, Matteo; Huchet, Quentin; Patelli, Edoardo

2018-03-01

Fatigue induced cracks is a dangerous failure mechanism which affects mechanical components subject to alternating load cycles. System health monitoring should be adopted to identify cracks which can jeopardise the structure. Real-time damage detection may fail in the identification of the cracks due to different sources of uncertainty which have been poorly assessed or even fully neglected. In this paper, a novel efficient and robust procedure is used for the detection of cracks locations and lengths in mechanical components. A Bayesian model updating framework is employed, which allows accounting for relevant sources of uncertainty. The idea underpinning the approach is to identify the most probable crack consistent with the experimental measurements. To tackle the computational cost of the Bayesian approach an emulator is adopted for replacing the computationally costly Finite Element model. To improve the overall robustness of the procedure, different numerical likelihoods, measurement noises and imprecision in the value of model parameters are analysed and their effects quantified. The accuracy of the stochastic updating and the efficiency of the numerical procedure are discussed. An experimental aluminium frame and on a numerical model of a typical car suspension arm are used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach.

Analysis of Feature Intervisibility and Cumulative Visibility Using GIS, Bayesian and Spatial Statistics: A Study from the Mandara Mountains, Northern Cameroon

PubMed Central

Wright, David K.; MacEachern, Scott; Lee, Jaeyong

2014-01-01

The locations of diy-geδ-bay (DGB) sites in the Mandara Mountains, northern Cameroon are hypothesized to occur as a function of their ability to see and be seen from points on the surrounding landscape. A series of geostatistical, two-way and Bayesian logistic regression analyses were performed to test two hypotheses related to the intervisibility of the sites to one another and their visual prominence on the landscape. We determine that the intervisibility of the sites to one another is highly statistically significant when compared to 10 stratified-random permutations of DGB sites. Bayesian logistic regression additionally demonstrates that the visibility of the sites to points on the surrounding landscape is statistically significant. The location of sites appears to have also been selected on the basis of lower slope than random permutations of sites. Using statistical measures, many of which are not commonly employed in archaeological research, to evaluate aspects of visibility on the landscape, we conclude that the placement of DGB sites improved their conspicuousness for enhanced ritual, social cooperation and/or competition purposes. PMID:25383883

Bayesian structural equation modeling: a more flexible representation of substantive theory.

PubMed

Muthén, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2012-09-01

This article proposes a new approach to factor analysis and structural equation modeling using Bayesian analysis. The new approach replaces parameter specifications of exact zeros with approximate zeros based on informative, small-variance priors. It is argued that this produces an analysis that better reflects substantive theories. The proposed Bayesian approach is particularly beneficial in applications where parameters are added to a conventional model such that a nonidentified model is obtained if maximum-likelihood estimation is applied. This approach is useful for measurement aspects of latent variable modeling, such as with confirmatory factor analysis, and the measurement part of structural equation modeling. Two application areas are studied, cross-loadings and residual correlations in confirmatory factor analysis. An example using a full structural equation model is also presented, showing an efficient way to find model misspecification. The approach encompasses 3 elements: model testing using posterior predictive checking, model estimation, and model modification. Monte Carlo simulations and real data are analyzed using Mplus. The real-data analyses use data from Holzinger and Swineford's (1939) classic mental abilities study, Big Five personality factor data from a British survey, and science achievement data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988.

BASiCS: Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Vallejos, Catalina A.; Marioni, John C.; Richardson, Sylvia

2015-01-01

Single-cell mRNA sequencing can uncover novel cell-to-cell heterogeneity in gene expression levels in seemingly homogeneous populations of cells. However, these experiments are prone to high levels of unexplained technical noise, creating new challenges for identifying genes that show genuine heterogeneous expression within the population of cells under study. BASiCS (Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing data) is an integrated Bayesian hierarchical model where: (i) cell-specific normalisation constants are estimated as part of the model parameters, (ii) technical variability is quantified based on spike-in genes that are artificially introduced to each analysed cell’s lysate and (iii) the total variability of the expression counts is decomposed into technical and biological components. BASiCS also provides an intuitive detection criterion for highly (or lowly) variable genes within the population of cells under study. This is formalised by means of tail posterior probabilities associated to high (or low) biological cell-to-cell variance contributions, quantities that can be easily interpreted by users. We demonstrate our method using gene expression measurements from mouse Embryonic Stem Cells. Cross-validation and meaningful enrichment of gene ontology categories within genes classified as highly (or lowly) variable supports the efficacy of our approach. PMID:26107944

BASiCS: Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing Data.

PubMed

Vallejos, Catalina A; Marioni, John C; Richardson, Sylvia

2015-06-01

Single-cell mRNA sequencing can uncover novel cell-to-cell heterogeneity in gene expression levels in seemingly homogeneous populations of cells. However, these experiments are prone to high levels of unexplained technical noise, creating new challenges for identifying genes that show genuine heterogeneous expression within the population of cells under study. BASiCS (Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing data) is an integrated Bayesian hierarchical model where: (i) cell-specific normalisation constants are estimated as part of the model parameters, (ii) technical variability is quantified based on spike-in genes that are artificially introduced to each analysed cell's lysate and (iii) the total variability of the expression counts is decomposed into technical and biological components. BASiCS also provides an intuitive detection criterion for highly (or lowly) variable genes within the population of cells under study. This is formalised by means of tail posterior probabilities associated to high (or low) biological cell-to-cell variance contributions, quantities that can be easily interpreted by users. We demonstrate our method using gene expression measurements from mouse Embryonic Stem Cells. Cross-validation and meaningful enrichment of gene ontology categories within genes classified as highly (or lowly) variable supports the efficacy of our approach.

Quantification of downscaled precipitation uncertainties via Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nury, A. H.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Prediction of precipitation from global climate model (GCM) outputs remains critical to decision-making in water-stressed regions. In this regard, downscaling of GCM output has been a useful tool for analysing future hydro-climatological states. Several downscaling approaches have been developed for precipitation downscaling, including those using dynamical or statistical downscaling methods. Frequently, outputs from dynamical downscaling are not readily transferable across regions for significant methodical and computational difficulties. Statistical downscaling approaches provide a flexible and efficient alternative, providing hydro-climatological outputs across multiple temporal and spatial scales in many locations. However these approaches are subject to significant uncertainty, arising due to uncertainty in the downscaled model parameters and in the use of different reanalysis products for inferring appropriate model parameters. Consequently, these will affect the performance of simulation in catchment scale. This study develops a Bayesian framework for modelling downscaled daily precipitation from GCM outputs. This study aims to introduce uncertainties in downscaling evaluating reanalysis datasets against observational rainfall data over Australia. In this research a consistent technique for quantifying downscaling uncertainties by means of Bayesian downscaling frame work has been proposed. The results suggest that there are differences in downscaled precipitation occurrences and extremes.

Time-series analyses of air pollution and mortality in the United States: a subsampling approach.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; McClellan, Roger O; Dewanji, Anup; Turim, Jay; Luebeck, E Georg; Edwards, Melanie

2013-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian methods have been used in previous papers to estimate national mean effects of air pollutants on daily deaths in time-series analyses. We obtained maximum likelihood estimates of the common national effects of the criteria pollutants on mortality based on time-series data from ≤ 108 metropolitan areas in the United States. We used a subsampling bootstrap procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and confidence bounds for common national effects of the criteria pollutants, as measured by the percentage increase in daily mortality associated with a unit increase in daily 24-hr mean pollutant concentration on the previous day, while controlling for weather and temporal trends. We considered five pollutants [PM10, ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2)] in single- and multipollutant analyses. Flexible ambient concentration-response models for the pollutant effects were considered as well. We performed limited sensitivity analyses with different degrees of freedom for time trends. In single-pollutant models, we observed significant associations of daily deaths with all pollutants. The O3 coefficient was highly sensitive to the degree of smoothing of time trends. Among the gases, SO2 and NO2 were most strongly associated with mortality. The flexible ambient concentration-response curve for O3 showed evidence of nonlinearity and a threshold at about 30 ppb. Differences between the results of our analyses and those reported from using the Bayesian approach suggest that estimates of the quantitative impact of pollutants depend on the choice of statistical approach, although results are not directly comparable because they are based on different data. In addition, the estimate of the O3-mortality coefficient depends on the amount of smoothing of time trends.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

PubMed

Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

2011-06-24

A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure. PMID:21702910

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses—an overview and application of NetMetaXL

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. Methods We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL’s interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. Results We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Conclusions Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent critical appraisal of network meta-analyses, enhanced standardization of reporting, and integration with health economic evaluations which are frequently Excel-based. PMID:25267416

Language in the brain at rest: new insights from resting state data and graph theoretical analysis

PubMed Central

Muller, Angela M.; Meyer, Martin

2014-01-01

In humans, the most obvious functional lateralization is the specialization of the left hemisphere for language. Therefore, the involvement of the right hemisphere in language is one of the most remarkable findings during the last two decades of fMRI research. However, the importance of this finding continues to be underestimated. We examined the interaction between the two hemispheres and also the role of the right hemisphere in language. From two seeds representing Broca's area, we conducted a seed correlation analysis (SCA) of resting state fMRI data and could identify a resting state network (RSN) overlapping to significant extent with a language network that was generated by an automated meta-analysis tool. To elucidate the relationship between the clusters of this RSN, we then performed graph theoretical analyses (GTA) using the same resting state dataset. We show that the right hemisphere is clearly involved in language. A modularity analysis revealed that the interaction between the two hemispheres is mediated by three partitions: A bilateral frontal partition consists of nodes representing the classical left sided language regions as well as two right-sided homologs. The second bilateral partition consists of nodes from the right frontal, the left inferior parietal cortex as well as of two nodes within the posterior cerebellum. The third partition is also bilateral and comprises five regions from the posterior midline parts of the brain to the temporal and frontal cortex, two of the nodes are prominent default mode nodes. The involvement of this last partition in a language relevant function is a novel finding. PMID:24808843

Potential for bias and low precision in molecular divergence time estimation of the Canopy of Life: an example from aquatic bird families

PubMed Central

van Tuinen, Marcel; Torres, Christopher R.

2015-01-01

Uncertainty in divergence time estimation is frequently studied from many angles but rarely from the perspective of phylogenetic node age. If appropriate molecular models and fossil priors are used, a multi-locus, partitioned analysis is expected to equally minimize error in accuracy and precision across all nodes of a given phylogeny. In contrast, if available models fail to completely account for rate heterogeneity, substitution saturation and incompleteness of the fossil record, uncertainty in divergence time estimation may increase with node age. While many studies have stressed this concern with regard to deep nodes in the Tree of Life, the inference that molecular divergence time estimation of shallow nodes is less sensitive to erroneous model choice has not been tested explicitly in a Bayesian framework. Because of available divergence time estimation methods that permit fossil priors across any phylogenetic node and the present increase in efficient, cheap collection of species-level genomic data, insight is needed into the performance of divergence time estimation of shallow (<10 MY) nodes. Here, we performed multiple sensitivity analyses in a multi-locus data set of aquatic birds with six fossil constraints. Comparison across divergence time analyses that varied taxon and locus sampling, number and position of fossil constraint and shape of prior distribution showed various insights. Deviation from node ages obtained from a reference analysis was generally highest for the shallowest nodes but determined more by temporal placement than number of fossil constraints. Calibration with only the shallowest nodes significantly underestimated the aquatic bird fossil record, indicating the presence of saturation. Although joint calibration with all six priors yielded ages most consistent with the fossil record, ages of shallow nodes were overestimated. This bias was found in both mtDNA and nDNA regions. Thus, divergence time estimation of shallow nodes may suffer from bias and low precision, even when appropriate fossil priors and best available substitution models are chosen. Much care must be taken to address the possible ramifications of substitution saturation across the entire Tree of Life. PMID:26106406

The evolution of autodigestion in the mushroom family Psathyrellaceae (Agaricales) inferred from Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods.

PubMed

Nagy, László G; Urban, Alexander; Orstadius, Leif; Papp, Tamás; Larsson, Ellen; Vágvölgyi, Csaba

2010-12-01

Recently developed comparative phylogenetic methods offer a wide spectrum of applications in evolutionary biology, although it is generally accepted that their statistical properties are incompletely known. Here, we examine and compare the statistical power of the ML and Bayesian methods with regard to selection of best-fit models of fruiting-body evolution and hypothesis testing of ancestral states on a real-life data set of a physiological trait (autodigestion) in the family Psathyrellaceae. Our phylogenies are based on the first multigene data set generated for the family. Two different coding regimes (binary and multistate) and two data sets differing in taxon sampling density are examined. The Bayesian method outperformed Maximum Likelihood with regard to statistical power in all analyses. This is particularly evident if the signal in the data is weak, i.e. in cases when the ML approach does not provide support to choose among competing hypotheses. Results based on binary and multistate coding differed only modestly, although it was evident that multistate analyses were less conclusive in all cases. It seems that increased taxon sampling density has favourable effects on inference of ancestral states, while model parameters are influenced to a smaller extent. The model best fitting our data implies that the rate of losses of deliquescence equals zero, although model selection in ML does not provide proper support to reject three of the four candidate models. The results also support the hypothesis that non-deliquescence (lack of autodigestion) has been ancestral in Psathyrellaceae, and that deliquescent fruiting bodies represent the preferred state, having evolved independently several times during evolution. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Design of a Bayesian adaptive phase 2 proof-of-concept trial for BAN2401, a putative disease-modifying monoclonal antibody for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Satlin, Andrew; Wang, Jinping; Logovinsky, Veronika; Berry, Scott; Swanson, Chad; Dhadda, Shobha; Berry, Donald A

2016-01-01

Recent failures in phase 3 clinical trials in Alzheimer's disease (AD) suggest that novel approaches to drug development are urgently needed. Phase 3 risk can be mitigated by ensuring that clinical efficacy is established before initiating confirmatory trials, but traditional phase 2 trials in AD can be lengthy and costly. We designed a Bayesian adaptive phase 2, proof-of-concept trial with a clinical endpoint to evaluate BAN2401, a monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils. The study design used dose response and longitudinal modeling. Simulations were used to refine study design features to achieve optimal operating characteristics. The study design includes five active treatment arms plus placebo, a clinical outcome, 12-month primary endpoint, and a maximum sample size of 800. The average overall probability of success is ≥80% when at least one dose shows a treatment effect that would be considered clinically meaningful. Using frequent interim analyses, the randomization ratios are adapted based on the clinical endpoint, and the trial can be stopped for success or futility before full enrollment. Bayesian statistics can enhance the efficiency of analyzing the study data. The adaptive randomization generates more data on doses that appear to be more efficacious, which can improve dose selection for phase 3. The interim analyses permit stopping as soon as a predefined signal is detected, which can accelerate decision making. Both features can reduce the size and duration of the trial. This study design can mitigate some of the risks associated with advancing to phase 3 in the absence of data demonstrating clinical efficacy. Limitations to the approach are discussed.

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach

PubMed Central

Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M.

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles. PMID:28459816

Statistics provide guidance for indigenous organic carbon detection on Mars missions.

PubMed

Sephton, Mark A; Carter, Jonathan N

2014-08-01

Data from the Viking and Mars Science Laboratory missions indicate the presence of organic compounds that are not definitively martian in origin. Both contamination and confounding mineralogies have been suggested as alternatives to indigenous organic carbon. Intuitive thought suggests that we are repeatedly obtaining data that confirms the same level of uncertainty. Bayesian statistics may suggest otherwise. If an organic detection method has a true positive to false positive ratio greater than one, then repeated organic matter detection progressively increases the probability of indigeneity. Bayesian statistics also reveal that methods with higher ratios of true positives to false positives give higher overall probabilities and that detection of organic matter in a sample with a higher prior probability of indigenous organic carbon produces greater confidence. Bayesian statistics, therefore, provide guidance for the planning and operation of organic carbon detection activities on Mars. Suggestions for future organic carbon detection missions and instruments are as follows: (i) On Earth, instruments should be tested with analog samples of known organic content to determine their true positive to false positive ratios. (ii) On the mission, for an instrument with a true positive to false positive ratio above one, it should be recognized that each positive detection of organic carbon will result in a progressive increase in the probability of indigenous organic carbon being present; repeated measurements, therefore, can overcome some of the deficiencies of a less-than-definitive test. (iii) For a fixed number of analyses, the highest true positive to false positive ratio method or instrument will provide the greatest probability that indigenous organic carbon is present. (iv) On Mars, analyses should concentrate on samples with highest prior probability of indigenous organic carbon; intuitive desires to contrast samples of high prior probability and low prior probability of indigenous organic carbon should be resisted.

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach.

PubMed

Chinique de Armas, Yadira; Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles.

The genetic diversity of hepatitis A genotype I in Bulgaria

PubMed Central

Cella, Eleonora; Golkocheva-Markova, Elitsa N.; Trandeva-Bankova, Diljana; Gregori, Giulia; Bruni, Roberto; Taffon, Stefania; Equestre, Michele; Costantino, Angela; Spoto, Silvia; Curtis, Melissa; Ciccaglione, Anna Rita; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Angeletti, Silvia

2018-01-01

Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyze sequences of hepatitis A virus (HAV) Ia and Ib genotypes from Bulgarian patients to investigate the molecular epidemiology of HAV genotype I during the years 2012 to 2014. Around 105 serum samples were collected by the Department of Virology of the National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases in Bulgaria. The sequenced region encompassed the VP1/2A region of HAV genome. The sequences obtained from the samples were 103. For the phylogenetic analyses, 5 datasets were built to investigate the viral gene in/out flow among distinct HAV subpopulations in different geographic areas and to build a Bayesian dated tree, Bayesian phylogenetic and migration pattern analyses were performed. HAV Ib Bulgarian sequences mostly grouped into a single clade. This indicates that the Bulgarian epidemic is partially compartmentalized. It originated from a limited number of viruses and then spread through fecal-oral local transmission. HAV Ia Bulgarian sequences were intermixed with European sequences, suggesting that an Ia epidemic is not restricted to Bulgaria but can affect other European countries. The time-scaled phylogeny reconstruction showed the root of the tree dating in 2008 for genotype Ib and in 1999 for genotype Ia with a second epidemic entrance in 2003. The Bayesian skyline plot for genotype Ib showed a slow but continuous growth, sustained by fecal-oral route transmission. For genotype Ia, there was an exponential growth followed by a plateau, which suggests better infection control. Bidirectional viral flow for Ib genotype, involving different Bulgarian areas, was observed, whereas a unidirectional flow from Sofia to Ihtiman for genotype Ia was highlighted, suggesting the fecal-oral transmission route for Ia. PMID:29504993

The genetic diversity of hepatitis A genotype I in Bulgaria.

PubMed

Cella, Eleonora; Golkocheva-Markova, Elitsa N; Trandeva-Bankova, Diljana; Gregori, Giulia; Bruni, Roberto; Taffon, Stefania; Equestre, Michele; Costantino, Angela; Spoto, Silvia; Curtis, Melissa; Ciccaglione, Anna Rita; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Angeletti, Silvia

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze sequences of hepatitis A virus (HAV) Ia and Ib genotypes from Bulgarian patients to investigate the molecular epidemiology of HAV genotype I during the years 2012 to 2014. Around 105 serum samples were collected by the Department of Virology of the National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases in Bulgaria. The sequenced region encompassed the VP1/2A region of HAV genome. The sequences obtained from the samples were 103. For the phylogenetic analyses, 5 datasets were built to investigate the viral gene in/out flow among distinct HAV subpopulations in different geographic areas and to build a Bayesian dated tree, Bayesian phylogenetic and migration pattern analyses were performed. HAV Ib Bulgarian sequences mostly grouped into a single clade. This indicates that the Bulgarian epidemic is partially compartmentalized. It originated from a limited number of viruses and then spread through fecal-oral local transmission. HAV Ia Bulgarian sequences were intermixed with European sequences, suggesting that an Ia epidemic is not restricted to Bulgaria but can affect other European countries. The time-scaled phylogeny reconstruction showed the root of the tree dating in 2008 for genotype Ib and in 1999 for genotype Ia with a second epidemic entrance in 2003. The Bayesian skyline plot for genotype Ib showed a slow but continuous growth, sustained by fecal-oral route transmission. For genotype Ia, there was an exponential growth followed by a plateau, which suggests better infection control. Bidirectional viral flow for Ib genotype, involving different Bulgarian areas, was observed, whereas a unidirectional flow from Sofia to Ihtiman for genotype Ia was highlighted, suggesting the fecal-oral transmission route for Ia. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Major clades of Agaricales: a multilocus phylogenetic overview.

Treesearch

P. Brandon Matheny; Judd M. Curtis; Valerie Hofstetter; M. Catherine Aime; Jean-Marc Moncalvo; Zai-Wei Ge; Zhu-Liang Yang; Joseph F. Ammirati; Timothy J. Baroni; Neale L. Bougher; Karen W. Lodge Hughes; Richard W. Kerrigan; Michelle T. Seidl; Aanen; Matthew Duur K. DeNitis; Graciela M. Daniele; Dennis E. Desjardin; Bradley R. Kropp; Lorelei L. Norvell; Andrew Parker; Else C. Vellinga; Rytas Vilgalys; David S. Hibbett

2006-01-01

An overview of the phylogeny of the Agaricales is presented based on a multilocus analysis of a six-gene region supermatrix. Bayesian analyses of 5611 nucleotide characters of rpb1, rpb1-intron 2, rpb2 and 18S, 25S, and 5.8S ribosomal RNA genes recovered six major clades, which are recognized informally and labeled the Agaricoid, Tricholomatoid, Marasmioid, Pluteoid,...

Analysis of health trait data from on-farm computer systems in the U.S. II: Comparison of genomic analyses including two-stage and single-step methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The development of genomic selection methodology, with accompanying substantial gains in reliability for low-heritability traits, may dramatically improve the feasibility of genetic improvement of dairy cow health. Many methods for genomic analysis have now been developed, including the “Bayesian Al...

A Bayesian algorithm for detecting differentially expressed proteins and its application in breast cancer research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santra, Tapesh; Delatola, Eleni Ioanna

2016-07-01

Presence of considerable noise and missing data points make analysis of mass-spectrometry (MS) based proteomic data a challenging task. The missing values in MS data are caused by the inability of MS machines to reliably detect proteins whose abundances fall below the detection limit. We developed a Bayesian algorithm that exploits this knowledge and uses missing data points as a complementary source of information to the observed protein intensities in order to find differentially expressed proteins by analysing MS based proteomic data. We compared its accuracy with many other methods using several simulated datasets. It consistently outperformed other methods. We then used it to analyse proteomic screens of a breast cancer (BC) patient cohort. It revealed large differences between the proteomic landscapes of triple negative and Luminal A, which are the most and least aggressive types of BC. Unexpectedly, majority of these differences could be attributed to the direct transcriptional activity of only seven transcription factors some of which are known to be inactive in triple negative BC. We also identified two new proteins which significantly correlated with the survival of BC patients, and therefore may have potential diagnostic/prognostic values.

A Bayesian Multivariate Receptor Model for Estimating Source Contributions to Particulate Matter Pollution using National Databases.

PubMed

Hackstadt, Amber J; Peng, Roger D

2014-11-01

Time series studies have suggested that air pollution can negatively impact health. These studies have typically focused on the total mass of fine particulate matter air pollution or the individual chemical constituents that contribute to it, and not source-specific contributions to air pollution. Source-specific contribution estimates are useful from a regulatory standpoint by allowing regulators to focus limited resources on reducing emissions from sources that are major contributors to air pollution and are also desired when estimating source-specific health effects. However, researchers often lack direct observations of the emissions at the source level. We propose a Bayesian multivariate receptor model to infer information about source contributions from ambient air pollution measurements. The proposed model incorporates information from national databases containing data on both the composition of source emissions and the amount of emissions from known sources of air pollution. The proposed model is used to perform source apportionment analyses for two distinct locations in the United States (Boston, Massachusetts and Phoenix, Arizona). Our results mirror previous source apportionment analyses that did not utilize the information from national databases and provide additional information about uncertainty that is relevant to the estimation of health effects.

Trophic interactions between native and introduced fish species in a littoral fish community.

PubMed

Monroy, M; Maceda-Veiga, A; Caiola, N; De Sostoa, A

2014-11-01

The trophic interactions between 15 native and two introduced fish species, silverside Odontesthes bonariensis and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, collected in a major fishery area at Lake Titicaca were explored by integrating traditional ecological knowledge and stable-isotope analyses (SIA). SIA suggested the existence of six trophic groups in this fish community based on δ(13)C and δ(15)N signatures. This was supported by ecological evidence illustrating marked spatial segregation between groups, but a similar trophic level for most of the native groups. Based on Bayesian ellipse analyses, niche overlap appeared to occur between small O. bonariensis (<90 mm) and benthopelagic native species (31.6%), and between the native pelagic killifish Orestias ispi and large O. bonariensis (39%) or O. mykiss (19.7%). In addition, Bayesian mixing models suggested that O. ispi and epipelagic species are likely to be the main prey items for the two introduced fish species. This study reveals a trophic link between native and introduced fish species, and demonstrates the utility of combining both SIA and traditional ecological knowledge to understand trophic relationships between fish species with similar feeding habits. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

FBST for Cointegration Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diniz, M.; Pereira, C. A. B.; Stern, J. M.

2008-11-01

In order to estimate causal relations, the time series econometrics has to be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule [21]. To solve the problem, one can work with differenced series or use multivariate models like VAR or VEC models. In this case, the analysed series are going to present a long run relation i.e. a cointegration relation. Even though the Bayesian literature about inference on VAR/VEC models is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. [2] highlight that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results." This paper presents the Full Bayesian Significance Test applied to cointegration rank selection tests in multivariate (VAR/VEC) time series models and shows how to implement it using available in the literature and simulated data sets. A standard non-informative prior is assumed.

Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis via contaminated informative priors.

PubMed

Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B

2009-09-01

A variety of flexible approaches have been proposed for functional data analysis, allowing both the mean curve and the distribution about the mean to be unknown. Such methods are most useful when there is limited prior information. Motivated by applications to modeling of temperature curves in the menstrual cycle, this article proposes a flexible approach for incorporating prior information in semiparametric Bayesian analyses of hierarchical functional data. The proposed approach is based on specifying the distribution of functions as a mixture of a parametric hierarchical model and a nonparametric contamination. The parametric component is chosen based on prior knowledge, while the contamination is characterized as a functional Dirichlet process. In the motivating application, the contamination component allows unanticipated curve shapes in unhealthy menstrual cycles. Methods are developed for posterior computation, and the approach is applied to data from a European fecundability study.

Assignment of a non-informative prior when using a calibration function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, I.; Grientschnig, D.

2012-01-01

The evaluation of measurement uncertainty associated with the use of calibration functions was addressed in a talk at the 19th IMEKO World Congress 2009 in Lisbon (Proceedings, pp 2346-51). Therein, an example involving a cubic function was analysed by a Bayesian approach and by the Monte Carlo method described in Supplement 1 to the 'Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement'. Results were found to be discrepant. In this paper we examine a simplified version of the example and show that the reported discrepancy is caused by the choice of the prior in the Bayesian analysis, which does not conform to formal rules for encoding the absence of prior knowledge. Two options for assigning a non-informative prior free from this shortcoming are considered; they are shown to be equivalent.

A Bayesian analysis of inflationary primordial spectrum models using Planck data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos da Costa, Simony; Benetti, Micol; Alcaniz, Jailson

2018-03-01

The current available Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data show an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations at large angular scales (l < 40). This lack of power is not explained by the minimal ΛCDM model, and one of the possible mechanisms explored in the literature to address this problem is the presence of features in the primordial power spectrum (PPS) motivated by the early universe physics. In this paper, we analyse a set of cutoff inflationary PPS models using a Bayesian model comparison approach in light of the latest CMB data from the Planck Collaboration. Our results show that the standard power-law parameterisation is preferred over all models considered in the analysis, which motivates the search for alternative explanations for the observed lack of power in the CMB anisotropy spectrum.

Stochastic Model of Seasonal Runoff Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Watada, Leslie M.

1986-03-01

Each year the National Weather Service and the Soil Conservation Service issue a monthly sequence of five (or six) categorical forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volume. To describe uncertainties in these forecasts for the purposes of optimal decision making, a stochastic model is formulated. It is a discrete-time, finite, continuous-space, nonstationary Markov process. Posterior densities of the actual runoff conditional upon a forecast, and transition densities of forecasts are obtained from a Bayesian information processor. Parametric densities are derived for the process with a normal prior density of the runoff and a linear model of the forecast error. The structure of the model and the estimation procedure are motivated by analyses of forecast records from five stations in the Snake River basin, from the period 1971-1983. The advantages of supplementing the current forecasting scheme with a Bayesian analysis are discussed.

Estimability and simple dynamical analyses of range (range-rate range-difference) observations to artificial satellites. [laser range observations to LAGEOS using non-Bayesian statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vangelder, B. H. W.

1978-01-01

Non-Bayesian statistics were used in simulation studies centered around laser range observations to LAGEOS. The capabilities of satellite laser ranging especially in connection with relative station positioning are evaluated. The satellite measurement system under investigation may fall short in precise determinations of the earth's orientation (precession and nutation) and earth's rotation as opposed to systems as very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and lunar laser ranging (LLR). Relative station positioning, determination of (differential) polar motion, positioning of stations with respect to the earth's center of mass and determination of the earth's gravity field should be easily realized by satellite laser ranging (SLR). The last two features should be considered as best (or solely) determinable by SLR in contrast to VLBI and LLR.

Pathways to Early Coital Debut for Adolescent Girls: A Recursive Partitioning Analysis

PubMed Central

Pearson, Matthew R.; Kholodkov, Tatyana; Henson, James M.; Impett, Emily A.

2011-01-01

The current study examined pathways to early coital debut among early to middle adolescent girls in the United States. In a two-year longitudinal study of 104 adolescent girls, we conducted Recursive Partitioning (RP) analyses to examine the specific factors that were related to engaging in first intercourse by the 10th grade among adolescent girls who had not yet engaged in sexual intercourse by the 8th grade. RP analyses identified subsamples of girls who had low, medium, and high likelihoods of engaging in early coital debut based on six variables (i.e., school aspirations, early physical intimacy experiences, depression, body objectification, body image, and relationship inauthenticity). For example, girls in the lowest likelihood group (3% had engaged in sex by the 10th grade) reported no prior experiences with being touched under their clothes, low body objectification, high aspirations to complete graduate education, and low depressive symptoms; girls in the highest likelihood group (75% had engaged in sex by the 10th grade) also reported no prior experiences with being touched under their clothes but had high levels of body objectification. The implications of these analyses for the development of female adolescent sexuality as well as for advances in quantitative methods are discussed. PMID:21512947

Carbon partitioning in Arabidopsis thaliana is a dynamic process controlled by the plants metabolic status and its circadian clock

PubMed Central

Kölling, Katharina; Thalmann, Matthias; Müller, Antonia; Jenny, Camilla; Zeeman, Samuel C

2015-01-01

Abstract Plant growth involves the coordinated distribution of carbon resources both towards structural components and towards storage compounds that assure a steady carbon supply over the complete diurnal cycle. We used 14CO2 labelling to track assimilated carbon in both source and sink tissues. Source tissues exhibit large variations in carbon allocation throughout the light period. The most prominent change was detected in partitioning towards starch, being low in the morning and more than double later in the day. Export into sink tissues showed reciprocal changes. Fewer and smaller changes in carbon allocation occurred in sink tissues where, in most respects, carbon was partitioned similarly, whether the sink leaf assimilated it through photosynthesis or imported it from source leaves. Mutants deficient in the production or remobilization of leaf starch exhibited major alterations in carbon allocation. Low-starch mutants that suffer from carbon starvation at night allocated much more carbon into neutral sugars and had higher rates of export than the wild type, partly because of the reduced allocation into starch, but also because of reduced allocation into structural components. Moreover, mutants deficient in the plant’s circadian system showed considerable changes in their carbon partitioning pattern suggesting control by the circadian clock. This work focusses on the temporal changes in the allocation and transport of photoassimilates within Arabidopsis rosettes, helping to fill a gap in our understanding of plant growth. Using short pulses of 14C-labelled carbon dioxide, we quantified how much carbon is used for growth and how much is stored as starch for use at night. In source leaves, partitioning is surprisingly dynamic during the day, even though photosynthesis is relatively constant, while in sink leaves, utilisation is more constant. Furthermore, by analysing metabolic mutants and clock mutants, and by manipulating the growth conditions, we show that partitioning is responsive to endogenous signals such as carbon starvation and the plant’s circadian rhythm. Commentary: Understanding carbon partitioning and its role in determining plant growth PMID:25651812

Aegirine-melt element partitioning and implications for the formation of nepheline syenite REE deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beard, Charles; van Hinsberg, Vincent; Stix, John; Wilke, Max

2017-04-01

Sodic clinopyroxene is a key fractionating phase in alkaline magmatic systems but its impact on metal enrichment processes, and the formation of REE + HFSE mineralizations in particular, is not fully understood. Sodic pyroxenes appear to more readily incorporate REE than their calcic equivalents1. Despite this, melts in evolved alkaline systems can attain high REE contents, even up to economic levels (e.g. the Nechalacho layered suite in Canada2). To constrain the control of pyroxene on REE + HFSE behaviour in alkaline magmas, a series of internally heated pressure vessel experiments was performed to determine pyroxene-melt element partitioning systematics. Synthetic trachy-andesite to phonolite compositions were run water saturated at 650-825°C with fO2 buffered by ca. 1 bar of H2 (QFM + 1) or by Hm-Mt (QFM +5). Fluorine was added to selected experiments (0.3 to 2.5 wt %) to ascertain its effect on element partitioning. Run products were analysed by EMP for major elements and LA-ICP-MS for trace elements. Mineral and glass compositions bracket the compositions of natural alkaline systems, allowing for direct application of our experimental results to nature. Our results indicate that REE partitioning systematics vary strongly with pyroxene composition: Diopside-rich pyroxenes (Aeg5-25) prefer the MREE, medium aegirine pyroxenes (Aeg25-50) preferentially incorporate the LREE, whereas high aegirine pyroxenes (Aeg55-95) strongly prefer HREE. REE partitioning coefficients are 0.3-40, typically 2-6, with minima for high aegirine pyroxenes. Melt composition (e.g. (Na+K)/Al) also impacts partitioning although to a lesser extent, except for the F-content, which shows no impact at all. The composition of fractionating pyroxene has a major impact on the REE pattern of the residual melt, and thus on the ability of a system to develop economic concentrations of the REE. Element partitioning systematics suggest that late-crystallising aegirine-rich cumulates would be HREE-rich, in accord with the composition of mineralised intrusions, such as Nechalacho2. 1 - Marks, M., Halama, R., Wenzel, T. & Markl, G., 2004. Chem. Geol. 211, 185-215. 2 - Möller, V. & Williams-Jones, A. E., 2016. J. Petrology 57, 229-276.

Quantitative Analysis of Urine Vapor and Breath by Gas-Liquid Partition Chromatography

PubMed Central

Pauling, Linus; Robinson, Arthur B.; Teranishi, Roy; Cary, Paul

1971-01-01

When a human being is placed for several days on a completely defined diet, consisting almost entirely of small molecules that are absorbed from the stomach into the blood, intestinal flora disappear because of lack of nutrition. By this technique, the composition of body fluids can be made constant (standard deviation about 10%) after a few days, permitting significant quantitative analyses to be performed. A method of temperature-programmed gas-liquid partition chromatography has been developed for this purpose. It permits the quantitative determination of about 250 substances in a sample of breath, and of about 280 substances in a sample of urine vapor. The technique should be useful in the application of the principles of orthomolecular medicine. PMID:5289873

Quantitative analysis of urine vapor and breath by gas-liquid partition chromatography.

PubMed

Pauling, L; Robinson, A B; Teranishi, R; Cary, P

1971-10-01

When a human being is placed for several days on a completely defined diet, consisting almost entirely of small molecules that are absorbed from the stomach into the blood, intestinal flora disappear because of lack of nutrition. By this technique, the composition of body fluids can be made constant (standard deviation about 10%) after a few days, permitting significant quantitative analyses to be performed. A method of temperature-programmed gas-liquid partition chromatography has been developed for this purpose. It permits the quantitative determination of about 250 substances in a sample of breath, and of about 280 substances in a sample of urine vapor. The technique should be useful in the application of the principles of orthomolecular medicine.

Evidence of new species for malaria vector Anopheles nuneztovari sensu lato in the Brazilian Amazon region.

PubMed

Scarpassa, Vera Margarete; Cunha-Machado, Antonio Saulo; Saraiva, José Ferreira

2016-04-12

Anopheles nuneztovari sensu lato comprises cryptic species in northern South America, and the Brazilian populations encompass distinct genetic lineages within the Brazilian Amazon region. This study investigated, based on two molecular markers, whether these lineages might actually deserve species status. Specimens were collected in five localities of the Brazilian Amazon, including Manaus, Careiro Castanho and Autazes, in the State of Amazonas; Tucuruí, in the State of Pará; and Abacate da Pedreira, in the State of Amapá, and analysed for the COI gene (Barcode region) and 12 microsatellite loci. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using the maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Intra and inter samples genetic diversity were estimated using population genetics analyses, and the genetic groups were identified by means of the ML, Bayesian and factorial correspondence analyses and the Bayesian analysis of population structure. The Barcode region dataset (N = 103) generated 27 haplotypes. The haplotype network suggested three lineages. The ML tree retrieved five monophyletic groups. Group I clustered all specimens from Manaus and Careiro Castanho, the majority of Autazes and a few from Abacate da Pedreira. Group II clustered most of the specimens from Abacate da Pedreira and a few from Autazes and Tucuruí. Group III clustered only specimens from Tucuruí (lineage III), strongly supported (97 %). Groups IV and V clustered specimens of A. nuneztovari s.s. and A. dunhami, strongly (98 %) and weakly (70 %) supported, respectively. In the second phylogenetic analysis, the sequences from GenBank, identified as A. goeldii, clustered to groups I and II, but not to group III. Genetic distances (Kimura-2 parameters) among the groups ranged from 1.60 % (between I and II) to 2.32 % (between I and III). Microsatellite data revealed very high intra-population genetic variability. Genetic distances showed the highest and significant values (P = 0.005) between Tucuruí and all the other samples, and between Abacate da Pedreira and all the other samples. Genetic distances, Bayesian (Structure and BAPS) analyses and FCA suggested three distinct biological groups, supporting the barcode region results. The two markers revealed three genetic lineages for A. nuneztovari s.l. in the Brazilian Amazon region. Lineages I and II may represent genetically distinct groups or species within A. goeldii. Lineage III may represent a new species, distinct from the A. goeldii group, and may be the most ancestral in the Brazilian Amazon. They may have differences in Plasmodium susceptibility and should therefore be investigated further.

Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

2016-04-01

Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model parameters, overly complex models should be avoided. A so called Markov Blanket approach aims at the identification of the most relevant factors and constructs a Bayesian network based on those findings. With our approach we want to exploit a major advantage of Bayesian networks which is their ability to consider dependencies not only pairwise, but to capture the joint effects and interactions of driving forces. Hence, the flood damage network does not only show the impact of precaution on the building damage separately, but also reveals the mutual effects of precaution and the quality of warning for a variety of flood settings. Thus, it allows for a consideration of changing conditions and different courses of action and forms a novel and valuable tool for decision support. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training program GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at the University of Potsdam.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin-Aranda, Maria; Rementeria, Rosalia; Hackenberg, Robert Errol

Here, the goal of this paper is to analyse the effect of adding Al on the non-steady pearlite growth occurring in a Fe–C–Mn system. The results are discussed in terms of the partitioning of elements across the austenite/ferrite and austenite/cementite interfaces, and the modification of the pearlite driving force related to the change in carbon activity in austenite.

The Acquisition of SV Order in Unaccusatives: Manipulating the Definiteness of the NP Argument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vernice, Mirta; Guasti, Maria Teresa

2015-01-01

In two sentence repetition experiments, we investigated whether four- and five-year-olds master distinct representations for intransitive verb classes by testing two syntactic analyses of unaccusatives (Burzio, 1986; Belletti, 1988). Under the assumption that, with unaccusatives, the partitive case of the postverbal argument is realized only on…

Multilevel Motivation and Engagement: Assessing Construct Validity across Students and Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Andrew J.; Malmberg, Lars-Erik; Liem, Gregory Arief D.

2010-01-01

Statistical biases associated with single-level analyses underscore the importance of partitioning variance/covariance matrices into individual and group levels. From a multilevel perspective based on data from 21,579 students in 58 high schools, the present study assesses the multilevel factor structure of motivation and engagement with a…

Inference and Analysis of Population Structure Using Genetic Data and Network Theory

PubMed Central

Greenbaum, Gili; Templeton, Alan R.; Bar-David, Shirli

2016-01-01

Clustering individuals to subpopulations based on genetic data has become commonplace in many genetic studies. Inference about population structure is most often done by applying model-based approaches, aided by visualization using distance-based approaches such as multidimensional scaling. While existing distance-based approaches suffer from a lack of statistical rigor, model-based approaches entail assumptions of prior conditions such as that the subpopulations are at Hardy-Weinberg equilibria. Here we present a distance-based approach for inference about population structure using genetic data by defining population structure using network theory terminology and methods. A network is constructed from a pairwise genetic-similarity matrix of all sampled individuals. The community partition, a partition of a network to dense subgraphs, is equated with population structure, a partition of the population to genetically related groups. Community-detection algorithms are used to partition the network into communities, interpreted as a partition of the population to subpopulations. The statistical significance of the structure can be estimated by using permutation tests to evaluate the significance of the partition’s modularity, a network theory measure indicating the quality of community partitions. To further characterize population structure, a new measure of the strength of association (SA) for an individual to its assigned community is presented. The strength of association distribution (SAD) of the communities is analyzed to provide additional population structure characteristics, such as the relative amount of gene flow experienced by the different subpopulations and identification of hybrid individuals. Human genetic data and simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the analyses. The approach presented here provides a novel, computationally efficient model-free method for inference about population structure that does not entail assumption of prior conditions. The method is implemented in the software NetStruct (available at https://giligreenbaum.wordpress.com/software/). PMID:26888080

Fasting Insulin is Better Partitioned according to Family History of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus than Post Glucose Load Insulin of Oral Glucose Tolerance Test in Young Adults.

PubMed

Francis, Saritha; Chandran, Sindhu Padinjareveedu; Nesheera, K K; Jacob, Jose

2017-05-01

Hyperinsulinemia is contributed by insulin resistance, hepatic insulin uptake, insulin secretion and rate of insulin degradation. Family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus has been reported to cause hyperinsulinemia. Correlation of fasting insulin with post glucose load Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) insulin in young adults and their partitioning according to family history of type 2 diabetes. In this observational cross-sectional study, clinical evaluation and biochemical assays of insulin and diabetes related parameters, and secondary clinical influences on type 2 diabetes in volunteers were done for inclusion as participants (n=90) or their exclusion. Cut off levels of quantitative biochemical variables were fixed such that they included the effects of insulin resistance, but excluded other secondary clinical influences. Distribution was analysed by Shapiro-Wilk test; equality of variances by Levene's test; Log 10 transformations for conversion of groups to Gaussian distribution and for equality of variances in the groups compared. When the groups compared had Gaussian distribution and there was equality of variance, parametric methods were used. Otherwise, non parametric methods were used. Fasting insulin was correlating significantly with 30, 60 and 120 minute OGTT insulin showing that hyperinsulinemia in the fasting state was related to hyperinsulinemia in the post glucose load states. When fasting and post glucose load OGTT insulin were partitioned into those without and with family history of type 2 diabetes, maximum difference was seen in fasting insulin (p<0.001), followed by 120 (p=0.001) and 60 (p= 0.002) minute OGTT insulin. The 30 minute insulin could not be partitioned (p=0.574). Fasting, 60 and 120 minute OGTT insulin can be partitioned according to family history of type 2 diabetes, demonstrating stratification and heterogeneity in the insulin sample. Of these, fasting insulin was better partitioned and could be used for baseline reference interval calculations.

Insights into plant water uptake from xylem-water isotope measurements in two tropical catchments with contrasting moisture conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evaristo, Jaivime; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Scholl, Martha A.; Bruijnzeel, L. Adrian; Chun, Kwok P.

2016-01-01

Water transpired by trees has long been assumed to be sourced from the same subsurface water stocks that contribute to groundwater recharge and streamflow. However, recent investigations using dual water stable isotopes have shown an apparent ecohydrological separation between tree-transpired water and stream water. Here we present evidence for such ecohydrological separation in two tropical environments in Puerto Rico where precipitation seasonality is relatively low and where precipitation is positively correlated with primary productivity. We determined the stable isotope signature of xylem water of 30 mahogany (Swietenia spp.) trees sampled during two periods with contrasting moisture status. Our results suggest that the separation between transpiration water and groundwater recharge/streamflow water might be related less to the temporal phasing of hydrologic inputs and primary productivity, and more to the fundamental processes that drive evaporative isotopic enrichment of residual soil water within the soil matrix. The lack of an evaporative signature of both groundwater and streams in the study area suggests that these water balance components have a water source that is transported quickly to deeper subsurface storage compared to waters that trees use. A Bayesian mixing model used to partition source water proportions of xylem water showed that groundwater contribution was greater for valley-bottom, riparian trees than for ridge-top trees. Groundwater contribution was also greater at the xeric site than at the mesic–hydric site. These model results (1) underline the utility of a simple linear mixing model, implemented in a Bayesian inference framework, in quantifying source water contributions at sites with contrasting physiographic characteristics, and (2) highlight the informed judgement that should be made in interpreting mixing model results, of import particularly in surveying groundwater use patterns by vegetation from regional to global scales. 

ADHM and the 4d quantum Hall effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barns-Graham, Alec; Dorey, Nick; Lohitsiri, Nakarin; Tong, David; Turner, Carl

2018-04-01

Yang-Mills instantons are solitonic particles in d = 4 + 1 dimensional gauge theories. We construct and analyse the quantum Hall states that arise when these particles are restricted to the lowest Landau level. We describe the ground state wavefunctions for both Abelian and non-Abelian quantum Hall states. Although our model is purely bosonic, we show that the excitations of this 4d quantum Hall state are governed by the Nekrasov partition function of a certain five dimensional supersymmetric gauge theory with Chern-Simons term. The partition function can also be interpreted as a variant of the Hilbert series of the instanton moduli space, counting holomorphic sections rather than holomorphic functions. It is known that the Hilbert series of the instanton moduli space can be rewritten using mirror symmetry of 3d gauge theories in terms of Coulomb branch variables. We generalise this approach to include the effect of a five dimensional Chern-Simons term. We demonstrate that the resulting Coulomb branch formula coincides with the corresponding Higgs branch Molien integral which, in turn, reproduces the standard formula for the Nekrasov partition function.

Natural Scales in Geographical Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, Telmo; Roth, Camille

2017-04-01

Human mobility is known to be distributed across several orders of magnitude of physical distances, which makes it generally difficult to endogenously find or define typical and meaningful scales. Relevant analyses, from movements to geographical partitions, seem to be relative to some ad-hoc scale, or no scale at all. Relying on geotagged data collected from photo-sharing social media, we apply community detection to movement networks constrained by increasing percentiles of the distance distribution. Using a simple parameter-free discontinuity detection algorithm, we discover clear phase transitions in the community partition space. The detection of these phases constitutes the first objective method of characterising endogenous, natural scales of human movement. Our study covers nine regions, ranging from cities to countries of various sizes and a transnational area. For all regions, the number of natural scales is remarkably low (2 or 3). Further, our results hint at scale-related behaviours rather than scale-related users. The partitions of the natural scales allow us to draw discrete multi-scale geographical boundaries, potentially capable of providing key insights in fields such as epidemiology or cultural contagion where the introduction of spatial boundaries is pivotal.

Investigation of the Factors Influencing Volatile Chemical Fate During Steady-state Accretion on Wet-growing Hail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, R. A.; Stuart, A. L.

2007-12-01

Phase partitioning during freezing affects the transport and distribution of volatile chemical species in convective clouds. This consequently can have impacts on tropospheric chemistry, air quality, pollutant deposition, and climate change. Here, we discuss the development, evaluation, and application of a mechanistic model for the study and prediction of volatile chemical partitioning during steady-state hailstone growth. The model estimates the fraction of a chemical species retained in a two-phase freezing hailstone. It is based upon mass rate balances over water and solute for accretion under wet-growth conditions. Expressions for the calculation of model components, including the rates of super-cooled drop collection, shedding, evaporation, and hail growth were developed and implemented based on available cloud microphysics literature. Solute fate calculations assume equilibrium partitioning at air-liquid and liquid-ice interfaces. Currently, we are testing the model by performing mass balance calculations, sensitivity analyses, and comparison to available experimental data. Application of the model will improve understanding of the effects of cloud conditions and chemical properties on the fate of dissolved chemical species during hail growth.

Reversed austenite for enhancing ductility of martensitic stainless steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieck, S.; Rosemann, P.; Kromm, A.; Halle, T.

2017-03-01

The novel heat treatment concept, “quenching and partitioning” (Q&P) has been developed for high strength steels with enhanced formability. This heat treatment involves quenching of austenite to a temperature between martensite start and finish, to receive a several amount of retained austenite. During the subsequent annealing treatment, the so called partitioning, the retained austenite is stabilized due to carbon diffusion, which results in enhanced formability and strength regarding strain induced austenite to martensite transformation. In this study a Q&P heat treatment was applied to a Fe-0.45C-0.65Mn-0.34Si-13.95Cr stainless martensite. Thereby the initial quench end temperature and the partitioning time were varied to characterize their influence on microstructural evolution. The microstructural changes were analysed by dilatometer measurements, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy, including electron back-scatter diffraction. Compression testing was made to examine the mechanical behaviour. It was found that an increasing partitioning time up to 30 min leads to an enhanced formability without loss in strength due to a higher amount of stabilized retained and reversed austenite as well as precipitation hardening.

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

2001-01-01

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Alveolar ridge preservation after tooth extraction: a Bayesian Network meta-analysis of grafting materials efficacy on prevention of bone height and width reduction.

PubMed

Iocca, Oreste; Farcomeni, Alessio; Pardiñas Lopez, Simon; Talib, Huzefa S

2017-01-01

To conduct a traditional meta-analysis and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis to synthesize the information coming from randomized controlled trials on different socket grafting materials and combine the resulting indirect evidence in order to make inferences on treatments that have not been compared directly. RCTs were identified for inclusion in the systematic review and subsequent statistical analysis. Bone height and width remodelling were selected as the chosen summary measures for comparison. First, a series of pairwise meta-analyses were performed and overall mean difference (MD) in mm with 95% CI was calculated between grafted versus non-grafted sockets. Then, a Bayesian Network meta-analysis was performed to draw indirect conclusions on which grafting materials can be considered most likely the best compared to the others. From the six included studies, seven comparisons were obtained. Traditional meta-analysis showed statistically significant results in favour of grafting the socket compared to no-graft both for height (MD 1.02, 95% CI 0.44-1.59, p value < 0.001) than for width (MD 1.52 95% CI 1.18-1.86, p value <0.000001) remodelling. Bayesian Network meta-analysis allowed to obtain a rank of intervention efficacy. On the basis of the results of the present analysis, socket grafting seems to be more favourable than unassisted socket healing. Moreover, Bayesian Network meta-analysis indicates that freeze-dried bone graft plus membrane is the most likely effective in the reduction of bone height remodelling. Autologous bone marrow resulted the most likely effective when width remodelling was considered. Studies with larger samples and less risk of bias should be conducted in the future in order to further strengthen the results of this analysis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated simultaneous analysis of different biomedical data types with exact weighted bi-cluster editing.

PubMed

Sun, Peng; Guo, Jiong; Baumbach, Jan

2012-07-17

The explosion of biological data has largely influenced the focus of today’s biology research. Integrating and analysing large quantity of data to provide meaningful insights has become the main challenge to biologists and bioinformaticians. One major problem is the combined data analysis of data from different types, such as phenotypes and genotypes. This data is modelled as bi-partite graphs where nodes correspond to the different data points, mutations and diseases for instance, and weighted edges relate to associations between them. Bi-clustering is a special case of clustering designed for partitioning two different types of data simultaneously. We present a bi-clustering approach that solves the NP-hard weighted bi-cluster editing problem by transforming a given bi-partite graph into a disjoint union of bi-cliques. Here we contribute with an exact algorithm that is based on fixed-parameter tractability. We evaluated its performance on artificial graphs first. Afterwards we exemplarily applied our Java implementation to data of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data aiming for discovering new, previously unobserved geno-to-pheno associations. We believe that our results will serve as guidelines for further wet lab investigations. Generally our software can be applied to any kind of data that can be modelled as bi-partite graphs. To our knowledge it is the fastest exact method for weighted bi-cluster editing problem.

Integrated simultaneous analysis of different biomedical data types with exact weighted bi-cluster editing.

PubMed

Sun, Peng; Guo, Jiong; Baumbach, Jan

2012-06-01

The explosion of biological data has largely influenced the focus of today's biology research. Integrating and analysing large quantity of data to provide meaningful insights has become the main challenge to biologists and bioinformaticians. One major problem is the combined data analysis of data from different types, such as phenotypes and genotypes. This data is modelled as bi-partite graphs where nodes correspond to the different data points, mutations and diseases for instance, and weighted edges relate to associations between them. Bi-clustering is a special case of clustering designed for partitioning two different types of data simultaneously. We present a bi-clustering approach that solves the NP-hard weighted bi-cluster editing problem by transforming a given bi-partite graph into a disjoint union of bi-cliques. Here we contribute with an exact algorithm that is based on fixed-parameter tractability. We evaluated its performance on artificial graphs first. Afterwards we exemplarily applied our Java implementation to data of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data aiming for discovering new, previously unobserved geno-to-pheno associations. We believe that our results will serve as guidelines for further wet lab investigations. Generally our software can be applied to any kind of data that can be modelled as bi-partite graphs. To our knowledge it is the fastest exact method for weighted bi-cluster editing problem.

An additional k-means clustering step improves the biological features of WGCNA gene co-expression networks.

PubMed

Botía, Juan A; Vandrovcova, Jana; Forabosco, Paola; Guelfi, Sebastian; D'Sa, Karishma; Hardy, John; Lewis, Cathryn M; Ryten, Mina; Weale, Michael E

2017-04-12

Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) is a widely used R software package for the generation of gene co-expression networks (GCN). WGCNA generates both a GCN and a derived partitioning of clusters of genes (modules). We propose k-means clustering as an additional processing step to conventional WGCNA, which we have implemented in the R package km2gcn (k-means to gene co-expression network, https://github.com/juanbot/km2gcn ). We assessed our method on networks created from UKBEC data (10 different human brain tissues), on networks created from GTEx data (42 human tissues, including 13 brain tissues), and on simulated networks derived from GTEx data. We observed substantially improved module properties, including: (1) few or zero misplaced genes; (2) increased counts of replicable clusters in alternate tissues (x3.1 on average); (3) improved enrichment of Gene Ontology terms (seen in 48/52 GCNs) (4) improved cell type enrichment signals (seen in 21/23 brain GCNs); and (5) more accurate partitions in simulated data according to a range of similarity indices. The results obtained from our investigations indicate that our k-means method, applied as an adjunct to standard WGCNA, results in better network partitions. These improved partitions enable more fruitful downstream analyses, as gene modules are more biologically meaningful.

Theory of Partitioning of Disease Prevalence and Mortality in Observational Data

PubMed Central

Akushevich, I.; Yashkin, A.; Kravchenko, J.; Fang, F.; Arbeev, K.; Sloan, F.; Yashin, AI

2017-01-01

In this study, we present a new theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and incidence-based mortality and demonstrate how this theory practically works for analyses of Medicare data. In the theory, the prevalence of a disease and incidence-based mortality are modeled in terms of disease incidence and survival after diagnosis supplemented by information on disease prevalence at the initial age and year available in a dataset. Partitioning of the trends of prevalence and mortality is calculated with minimal assumptions. The resulting expressions for the components of the trends are given by continuous functions of data. The estimator is consistent and stable. The developed methodology is applied for data on type 2 diabetes using individual records from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries age 65+. Numerical estimates show excellent concordance between empirical estimates and theoretical predictions. Evaluated partitioning model showed that both prevalence and mortality increase with time. The primary driving factors of the observed prevalence increase are improved survival and increased prevalence at age 65. The increase in diabetes-related mortality is driven by increased prevalence and unobserved trends in time-periods and age-groups outside of the range of the data used in the study. Finally, the properties of the new estimator, possible statistical and systematical uncertainties, and future practical applications of this methodology in epidemiology, demography, public health and health forecasting are discussed. PMID:28130147

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Calibrating Estimates of Species Divergence Times

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.

2012-01-01

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account. PMID:22334343

Bayesian Redshift Classification of Emission-line Galaxies with Photometric Equivalent Widths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Andrew S.; Acquaviva, Viviana; Gawiser, Eric; Ciardullo, Robin; Komatsu, Eiichiro; Malz, A. I.; Zeimann, Gregory R.; Bridge, Joanna S.; Drory, Niv; Feldmeier, John J.; Finkelstein, Steven L.; Gebhardt, Karl; Gronwall, Caryl; Hagen, Alex; Hill, Gary J.; Schneider, Donald P.

2017-07-01

We present a Bayesian approach to the redshift classification of emission-line galaxies when only a single emission line is detected spectroscopically. We consider the case of surveys for high-redshift Lyα-emitting galaxies (LAEs), which have traditionally been classified via an inferred rest-frame equivalent width (EW {W}{Lyα }) greater than 20 Å. Our Bayesian method relies on known prior probabilities in measured emission-line luminosity functions and EW distributions for the galaxy populations, and returns the probability that an object in question is an LAE given the characteristics observed. This approach will be directly relevant for the Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX), which seeks to classify ˜106 emission-line galaxies into LAEs and low-redshift [{{O}} {{II}}] emitters. For a simulated HETDEX catalog with realistic measurement noise, our Bayesian method recovers 86% of LAEs missed by the traditional {W}{Lyα } > 20 Å cutoff over 2 < z < 3, outperforming the EW cut in both contamination and incompleteness. This is due to the method’s ability to trade off between the two types of binary classification error by adjusting the stringency of the probability requirement for classifying an observed object as an LAE. In our simulations of HETDEX, this method reduces the uncertainty in cosmological distance measurements by 14% with respect to the EW cut, equivalent to recovering 29% more cosmological information. Rather than using binary object labels, this method enables the use of classification probabilities in large-scale structure analyses. It can be applied to narrowband emission-line surveys as well as upcoming large spectroscopic surveys including Euclid and WFIRST.

How Much Can We Learn from a Single Chromatographic Experiment? A Bayesian Perspective.

PubMed

Wiczling, Paweł; Kaliszan, Roman

2016-01-05

In this work, we proposed and investigated a Bayesian inference procedure to find the desired chromatographic conditions based on known analyte properties (lipophilicity, pKa, and polar surface area) using one preliminary experiment. A previously developed nonlinear mixed effect model was used to specify the prior information about a new analyte with known physicochemical properties. Further, the prior (no preliminary data) and posterior predictive distribution (prior + one experiment) were determined sequentially to search towards the desired separation. The following isocratic high-performance reversed-phase liquid chromatographic conditions were sought: (1) retention time of a single analyte within the range of 4-6 min and (2) baseline separation of two analytes with retention times within the range of 4-10 min. The empirical posterior Bayesian distribution of parameters was estimated using the "slice sampling" Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm implemented in Matlab. The simulations with artificial analytes and experimental data of ketoprofen and papaverine were used to test the proposed methodology. The simulation experiment showed that for a single and two randomly selected analytes, there is 97% and 74% probability of obtaining a successful chromatogram using none or one preliminary experiment. The desired separation for ketoprofen and papaverine was established based on a single experiment. It was confirmed that the search for a desired separation rarely requires a large number of chromatographic analyses at least for a simple optimization problem. The proposed Bayesian-based optimization scheme is a powerful method of finding a desired chromatographic separation based on a small number of preliminary experiments.

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

A Defence of the AR4’s Bayesian Approach to Quantifying Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezer, M. A.

2009-12-01

The field of climate change research is a kimberlite pipe filled with philosophic diamonds waiting to be mined and analyzed by philosophers. Within the scientific literature on climate change, there is much philosophical dialogue regarding the methods and implications of climate studies. To this date, however, discourse regarding the philosophy of climate science has been confined predominately to scientific - rather than philosophical - investigations. In this paper, I hope to bring one such issue to the surface for explicit philosophical analysis: The purpose of this paper is to address a philosophical debate pertaining to the expressions of uncertainty in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which, as will be noted, has received significant attention in scientific journals and books, as well as sporadic glances from the popular press. My thesis is that the AR4’s Bayesian method of uncertainty analysis and uncertainty expression is justifiable on pragmatic grounds: it overcomes problems associated with vagueness, thereby facilitating communication between scientists and policy makers such that the latter can formulate decision analyses in response to the views of the former. Further, I argue that the most pronounced criticisms against the AR4’s Bayesian approach, which are outlined below, are misguided. §1 Introduction Central to AR4 is a list of terms related to uncertainty that in colloquial conversations would be considered vague. The IPCC attempts to reduce the vagueness of its expressions of uncertainty by calibrating uncertainty terms with numerical probability values derived from a subjective Bayesian methodology. This style of analysis and expression has stimulated some controversy, as critics reject as inappropriate and even misleading the association of uncertainty terms with Bayesian probabilities. [...] The format of the paper is as follows. The investigation begins (§2) with an explanation of background considerations relevant to the IPCC and its use of uncertainty expressions. It then (§3) outlines some general philosophical worries regarding vague expressions and (§4) relates those worries to the AR4 and its method of dealing with them, which is a subjective Bayesian probability analysis. The next phase of the paper (§5) examines the notions of ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ probability interpretations and compares the IPCC’s subjective Bayesian strategy with a frequentist approach. It then (§6) addresses objections to that methodology, and concludes (§7) that those objections are wrongheaded.

Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Livina, V. N.; Forbes, A. B.; Vaz Martins, T. M.

2015-03-15

We apply tipping point analysis to nine observational oxygen concentration records around the globe, analyse their dynamics and perform projections under possible future scenarios, leading to oxygen deficiency in the atmosphere. The analysis is based on statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the observed data using Bayesian and wavelet techniques.

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Bayesian analyses of Yemeni mitochondrial genomes suggest multiple migration events with Africa and Western Eurasia.

PubMed

Vyas, Deven N; Kitchen, Andrew; Miró-Herrans, Aida T; Pearson, Laurel N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J

2016-03-01

Anatomically, modern humans are thought to have migrated out of Africa ∼60,000 years ago in the first successful global dispersal. This initial migration may have passed through Yemen, a region that has experienced multiple migrations events with Africa and Eurasia throughout human history. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to determine how ancient and recent migrations have shaped Yemeni mitogenomic variation. We sequenced 113 mitogenomes from multiple Yemeni regions with a focus on haplogroups M, N, and L3(xM,N) as these groups have the oldest evolutionary history outside of Africa. We performed Bayesian evolutionary analyses to generate time-measured phylogenies calibrated by Neanderthal and Denisovan mitogenomes in order to determine the age of Yemeni-specific clades. As defined by Yemeni monophyly, Yemeni in situ evolution is limited to the Holocene or latest Pleistocene (ages of clades in subhaplogroups L3b1a1a, L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, N1a1a3, and N1a3 range from 2 to 14 kya) and is often situated within broader Horn of Africa/southern Arabia in situ evolution (L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, and N1a1a3 ages range from 7 to 29 kya). Five subhaplogroups show no monophyly and are candidates for Holocene migration into Yemen (L0a2a2a, L3d1a1a, L3i2, M1a1b, and N1b1a). Yemeni mitogenomes are largely the product of Holocene migration, and subsequent in situ evolution, from Africa and western Eurasia. However, we hypothesize that recent population movements may obscure the genetic signature of more ancient migrations. Additional research, e.g., analyses of Yemeni nuclear genetic data, is needed to better reconstruct the complex population and migration histories associated with Out of Africa. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Insights into the phylogeny of Northern Hemisphere Armillaria: Neighbor-net and Bayesian analyses of translation elongation factor 1-α gene sequences.

PubMed

Klopfenstein, Ned B; Stewart, Jane E; Ota, Yuko; Hanna, John W; Richardson, Bryce A; Ross-Davis, Amy L; Elías-Román, Rubén D; Korhonen, Kari; Keča, Nenad; Iturritxa, Eugenia; Alvarado-Rosales, Dionicio; Solheim, Halvor; Brazee, Nicholas J; Łakomy, Piotr; Cleary, Michelle R; Hasegawa, Eri; Kikuchi, Taisei; Garza-Ocañas, Fortunato; Tsopelas, Panaghiotis; Rigling, Daniel; Prospero, Simone; Tsykun, Tetyana; Bérubé, Jean A; Stefani, Franck O P; Jafarpour, Saeideh; Antonín, Vladimír; Tomšovský, Michal; McDonald, Geral I; Woodward, Stephen; Kim, Mee-Sook

2017-01-01

Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence-based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation elongation factor 1-α (tef1) sequences are highly informative for phylogenetic analysis of Armillaria species within diverse global regions. This study used Neighbor-net and coalescence-based Bayesian analyses to examine phylogenetic relationships of newly determined and existing tef1 sequences derived from diverse Armillaria species from across the Northern Hemisphere, with Southern Hemisphere Armillaria species included for reference. Based on the Bayesian analysis of tef1 sequences, Armillaria species from the Northern Hemisphere are generally contained within the following four superclades, which are named according to the specific epithet of the most frequently cited species within the superclade: (i) Socialis/Tabescens (exannulate) superclade including Eurasian A. ectypa, North American A. socialis (A. tabescens), and Eurasian A. socialis (A. tabescens) clades; (ii) Mellea superclade including undescribed annulate North American Armillaria sp. (Mexico) and four separate clades of A. mellea (Europe and Iran, eastern Asia, and two groups from North America); (iii) Gallica superclade including Armillaria Nag E (Japan), multiple clades of A. gallica (Asia and Europe), A. calvescens (eastern North America), A. cepistipes (North America), A. altimontana (western USA), A. nabsnona (North America and Japan), and at least two A. gallica clades (North America); and (iv) Solidipes/Ostoyae superclade including two A. solidipes/ostoyae clades (North America), A. gemina (eastern USA), A. solidipes/ostoyae (Eurasia), A. cepistipes (Europe and Japan), A. sinapina (North America and Japan), and A. borealis (Eurasia) clade 2. Of note is that A. borealis (Eurasia) clade 1 appears basal to the Solidipes/Ostoyae and Gallica superclades. The Neighbor-net analysis showed similar phylogenetic relationships. This study further demonstrates the utility of tef1 for global phylogenetic studies of Armillaria species and provides critical insights into multiple taxonomic issues that warrant further study.

Partitioning of Ni, Co and V between Spinel-Structured Oxides and Silicate Melts: Importance of Spinel Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Righter, K.; Leeman, W. P.; Hervig, R. L.

2006-01-01

Partitioning of Ni, Co and V between Cr-rich spinels and basaltic melt has been studied experimentally between 1150 and 1325 C, and at controlled oxygen fugacity from the Co-CoO buffer to slightly above the hematite magnetite buffer. These new results, together with new Ni, Co and V analyses of experimental run products from Leeman [Leeman, W.P., 1974. Experimental determination of the partitioning of divalent cations between olivine and basaltic liquid, Pt. II. PhD thesis, Univ. Oregon, 231 - 337.], show that experimentally determined spinel melt partition coefficients (D) are dependent upon temperature (T), oxygen fugacity (fO2) and spinel composition. In particular, partition coefficients determined on doped systems are higher than those in natural (undoped) systems, perhaps due to changing activity coefficients over the composition range defined by the experimental data. Using our new results and published runs (n =85), we obtain a multilinear regression equation that predicts experimental D(V) values as a function of T, fO2, concentration of V in melt and spinel composition. This equation allows prediction of D(V) spinel/melt values for natural mafic liquids at relevant crystallization conditions. Similarly, D(Ni) and D(Co) values can be inferred from our experiments at redox conditions approaching the QFM buffer, temperatures of 1150 to 1250 C and spinel composition (early Cr-bearing and later Ti-magnetite) appropriate for basic magma differentiation. When coupled with major element modelling of liquid lines of descent, these values (D(Ni) sp/melt=10 and D(Co) sp/melt=5) closely reproduce the compositional variation observed in komatiite, mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), ocean island basalt (OIB) and basalt to rhyolite suites.

Interaction of Airspace Partitions and Traffic Flow Management Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palopo, Kee; Chatterji, Gano B.; Lee, Hak-Tae

2010-01-01

To ensure that air traffic demand does not exceed airport and airspace capacities, traffic management restrictions, such as delaying aircraft on the ground, assigning them different routes and metering them in the airspace, are implemented. To reduce the delays resulting from these restrictions, revising the partitioning of airspace has been proposed to distribute capacity to yield a more efficient airspace configuration. The capacity of an airspace partition, commonly referred to as a sector, is limited by the number of flights that an air traffic controller can safely manage within the sector. Where viable, re-partitioning of the airspace distributes the flights over more efficient sectors and reduces individual sector demand. This increases the overall airspace efficiency, but requires additional resources in some sectors in terms of controllers and equipment, which is undesirable. This study examines the tradeoff of the number of sectors designed for a specified amount of traffic in a clear-weather day and the delays needed for accommodating the traffic demand. Results show that most of the delays are caused by airport arrival and departure capacity constraints. Some delays caused by airspace capacity constraints can be eliminated by re-partitioning the airspace. Analyses show that about 360 high-altitude sectors, which are approximately today s operational number of sectors of 373, are adequate for delays to be driven solely by airport capacity constraints for the current daily air traffic demand. For a marginal increase of 15 seconds of average delay, the number of sectors can be reduced to 283. In addition, simulations of traffic growths of 15% and 20% with forecasted airport capacities in the years 2018 and 2025 show that delays will continue to be governed by airport capacities. In clear-weather days, for small increases in traffic demand, increasing sector capacities will have almost no effect on delays.

Coupled oxygen-carbon dioxide modelling to partition potential external contribution to stream carbon dioxide concentrations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butman, D. E.; Holtgrieve, G. W.

2017-12-01

Recent modelling studies in large catchments have estimated that in excess of 74% of the dissolved carbon dioxide found in first and second order streams originate from allochthonous sources. Stable isotopes of carbon-13 in carbon dioxide have been used to identify ground water seeps in stream systems, where decreases in δ13CO2 occur along gaining stream reaches, suggesting that carbon dioxide in ground water is more depleted than what is found in surface water due to fractionation of CO2 during emissions across the air water interface. Although isotopes represent a chemical tracer in stream systems for potential groundwater contribution, the temporal resolution of discrete samples make partitioning allochthonous versus autochthonous sources of CO2 difficult on hydrologically relevant time scales. Here we show results of field deployments of high frequent dissolved CO2, O2, PAR, Temperature and pH from the Thornton Creek Watershed, the largest urban watershed in Seattle, WA. We present an exploration into using high resolution time series of dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide in a dual gas approach to separate the contribution of in stream respiration from external sources. We extend upon previous efforts to model stream metabolism across diel cycles by incorporating simultaneous direct measurements of dissolved oxygen, PCO2, and pH within an inverse modeling framework and Bayesian parameter estimation. With an initial assumption of a stoichiometric ratio of 1:1 for O2 and CO2 for autochthonous driven metabolism, we investigate positive or negative departures from this ratio as an indicator of external CO2 to the stream (terrestrial or atmospheric) and factors contributing to this flux.

Genetic diversity of calcareous grassland plant species depends on historical landscape configuration.

PubMed

Reisch, Christoph; Schmidkonz, Sonja; Meier, Katrin; Schöpplein, Quirin; Meyer, Carina; Hums, Christian; Putz, Christina; Schmid, Christoph

2017-04-24

Habitat fragmentation is considered to be a main reason for decreasing genetic diversity of plant species. However, the results of many fragmentation studies are inconsistent. This may be due to the influence of habitat conditions, having an indirect effect on genetic variation via reproduction. Consequently we took a comparative approach to analyse the impact of habitat fragmentation and habitat conditions on the genetic diversity of calcareous grassland species in this study. We selected five typical grassland species (Primula veris, Dianthus carthusianorum, Medicago falcata, Polygala comosa and Salvia pratensis) occurring in 18 fragments of calcareous grasslands in south eastern Germany. We sampled 1286 individuals in 87 populations and analysed genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphisms. Additionally, we collected data concerning habitat fragmentation (historical and present landscape structure) and habitat conditions (vegetation structure, soil conditions) of the selected study sites. The whole data set was analysed using Bayesian multiple regressions. Our investigation indicated a habitat loss of nearly 80% and increasing isolation between grasslands since 1830. Bayesian analysis revealed a significant impact of the historical landscape structure, whereas habitat conditions played no important role for the present-day genetic variation of the studied plant species. Our study indicates that the historical landscape structure may be more important for genetic diversity than present habitat conditions. Populations persisting in abandoned grassland fragments may contribute significantly to the species' variability even under deteriorating habitat conditions. Therefore, these populations should be included in approaches to preserve the genetic variation of calcareous grassland species.

Psychosocial stress factors, including the relationship with the coach, and their influence on acute and overuse injury risk in elite female football players.

PubMed

Pensgaard, Anne Marte; Ivarsson, Andreas; Nilstad, Agnethe; Solstad, Bård Erlend; Steffen, Kathrin

2018-01-01

The relationship between specific types of stressors (eg, teammates, coach) and acute versus overuse injuries is not well understood. To examine the roles of different types of stressors as well as the effect of motivational climate on the occurrence of acute and overuse injuries. Players in the Norwegian elite female football league (n=193 players from 12 teams) participated in baseline screening tests prior to the 2009 competitive football season. As part of the screening, we included the Life Event Survey for Collegiate Athletes and the Perceived Motivational Climate in Sport Questionnaire (Norwegian short version). Acute and overuse time-loss injuries and exposure to training and matches were recorded prospectively in the football season using weekly text messaging. Data were analysed with Bayesian logistic regression analyses. Using Bayesian logistic regression analyses, we showed that perceived negative life event stress from teammates was associated with an increased risk of acute injuries (OR=1.23, 95% credibility interval (1.01 to 1.48)). There was a credible positive association between perceived negative life event stress from the coach and the risk of overuse injuries (OR=1.21, 95% credibility interval (1.01 to 1.45)). Players who report teammates as a source of stress have a greater risk of sustaining an acute injury, while players reporting the coach as a source of stress are at greater risk of sustaining an overuse injury. Motivational climate did not relate to increased injury occurrence.

Remarkable convergent evolution in specialized parasitic Thecostraca (Crustacea)

PubMed Central

Pérez-Losada, Marcos; Høeg, Jens T; Crandall, Keith A

2009-01-01

Background The Thecostraca are arguably the most morphologically and biologically variable group within the Crustacea, including both suspension feeders (Cirripedia: Thoracica and Acrothoracica) and parasitic forms (Cirripedia: Rhizocephala, Ascothoracida and Facetotecta). Similarities between the metamorphosis found in the Facetotecta and Rhizocephala suggests a common evolutionary origin, but until now no comprehensive study has looked at the basic evolution of these thecostracan groups. Results To this end, we collected DNA sequences from three nuclear genes [18S rRNA (2,305), 28S rRNA (2,402), Histone H3 (328)] and 41 larval characters in seven facetotectans, five ascothoracidans, three acrothoracicans, 25 rhizocephalans and 39 thoracicans (ingroup) and 12 Malacostraca and 10 Copepoda (outgroup). Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses showed the Facetotecta, Ascothoracida and Cirripedia each as monophyletic. The better resolved and highly supported DNA maximum likelihood and morphological-DNA Bayesian analysis trees depicted the main phylogenetic relationships within the Thecostraca as (Facetotecta, (Ascothoracida, (Acrothoracica, (Rhizocephala, Thoracica)))). Conclusion Our analyses indicate a convergent evolution of the very similar and highly reduced slug-shaped stages found during metamorphosis of both the Rhizocephala and the Facetotecta. This provides a remarkable case of convergent evolution and implies that the advanced endoparasitic mode of life known from the Rhizocephala and strongly indicated for the Facetotecta had no common origin. Future analyses are needed to determine whether the most recent common ancestor of the Thecostraca was free-living or some primitive form of ectoparasite. PMID:19374762

Evidence of a major gene from Bayesian segregation analyses of liability to osteochondral diseases in pigs.

PubMed

Kadarmideen, Haja N; Janss, Luc L G

2005-11-01

Bayesian segregation analyses were used to investigate the mode of inheritance of osteochondral lesions (osteochondrosis, OC) in pigs. Data consisted of 1163 animals with OC and their pedigrees included 2891 animals. Mixed-inheritance threshold models (MITM) and several variants of MITM, in conjunction with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, were developed for the analysis of these (categorical) data. Results showed major genes with significant and substantially higher variances (range 1.384-37.81), compared to the polygenic variance (sigmau2). Consequently, heritabilities for a mixed inheritance (range 0.65-0.90) were much higher than the heritabilities from the polygenes. Disease allele frequencies range was 0.38-0.88. Additional analyses estimating the transmission probabilities of the major gene showed clear evidence for Mendelian segregation of a major gene affecting osteochondrosis. The variants, MITM with informative prior on sigmau2, showed significant improvement in marginal distributions and accuracy of parameters. MITM with a "reduced polygenic model" for parameterization of polygenic effects avoided convergence problems and poor mixing encountered in an "individual polygenic model." In all cases, "shrinkage estimators" for fixed effects avoided unidentifiability for these parameters. The mixed-inheritance linear model (MILM) was also applied to all OC lesions and compared with the MITM. This is the first study to report evidence of major genes for osteochondral lesions in pigs; these results may also form a basis for underpinning the genetic inheritance of this disease in other animals as well as in humans.

UNITY: Confronting Supernova Cosmology's Statistical and Systematic Uncertainties in a Unified Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, D.; Aldering, G.; Barbary, K.; Boone, K.; Chappell, G.; Currie, M.; Deustua, S.; Fagrelius, P.; Fruchter, A.; Hayden, B.; Lidman, C.; Nordin, J.; Perlmutter, S.; Saunders, C.; Sofiatti, C.; Supernova Cosmology Project, The

2015-11-01

While recent supernova (SN) cosmology research has benefited from improved measurements, current analysis approaches are not statistically optimal and will prove insufficient for future surveys. This paper discusses the limitations of current SN cosmological analyses in treating outliers, selection effects, shape- and color-standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations. We present a new Bayesian framework, called UNITY (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to confront these effects. We apply the framework to real SN observations and demonstrate smaller statistical and systematic uncertainties. We verify earlier results that SNe Ia require nonlinear shape and color standardizations, but we now include these nonlinear relations in a statistically well-justified way. This analysis was primarily performed blinded, in that the basic framework was first validated on simulated data before transitioning to real data. We also discuss possible extensions of the method.

Sensitivity analyses for sparse-data problems-using weakly informative bayesian priors.

PubMed

Hamra, Ghassan B; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R

2013-03-01

Sparse-data problems are common, and approaches are needed to evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates based on sparse data. We propose a Bayesian approach that uses weakly informative priors to quantify sensitivity of parameters to sparse data. The weakly informative prior is based on accumulated evidence regarding the expected magnitude of relationships using relative measures of disease association. We illustrate the use of weakly informative priors with an example of the association of lifetime alcohol consumption and head and neck cancer. When data are sparse and the observed information is weak, a weakly informative prior will shrink parameter estimates toward the prior mean. Additionally, the example shows that when data are not sparse and the observed information is not weak, a weakly informative prior is not influential. Advancements in implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation make this sensitivity analysis easily accessible to the practicing epidemiologist.

Sensitivity Analyses for Sparse-Data Problems—Using Weakly Informative Bayesian Priors

PubMed Central

Hamra, Ghassan B.; MacLehose, Richard F.; Cole, Stephen R.

2013-01-01

Sparse-data problems are common, and approaches are needed to evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates based on sparse data. We propose a Bayesian approach that uses weakly informative priors to quantify sensitivity of parameters to sparse data. The weakly informative prior is based on accumulated evidence regarding the expected magnitude of relationships using relative measures of disease association. We illustrate the use of weakly informative priors with an example of the association of lifetime alcohol consumption and head and neck cancer. When data are sparse and the observed information is weak, a weakly informative prior will shrink parameter estimates toward the prior mean. Additionally, the example shows that when data are not sparse and the observed information is not weak, a weakly informative prior is not influential. Advancements in implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation make this sensitivity analysis easily accessible to the practicing epidemiologist. PMID:23337241

Model based inference from microvascular measurements: Combining experimental measurements and model predictions using a Bayesian probabilistic approach

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Peter M.; Smith, Amy F.; Sakadžić, Sava; Boas, David A.; Pries, Axel R.; Secomb, Timothy W.; Østergaard, Leif

2017-01-01

Objective In vivo imaging of the microcirculation and network-oriented modeling have emerged as powerful means of studying microvascular function and understanding its physiological significance. Network-oriented modeling may provide the means of summarizing vast amounts of data produced by high-throughput imaging techniques in terms of key, physiological indices. To estimate such indices with sufficient certainty, however, network-oriented analysis must be robust to the inevitable presence of uncertainty due to measurement errors as well as model errors. Methods We propose the Bayesian probabilistic data analysis framework as a means of integrating experimental measurements and network model simulations into a combined and statistically coherent analysis. The framework naturally handles noisy measurements and provides posterior distributions of model parameters as well as physiological indices associated with uncertainty. Results We applied the analysis framework to experimental data from three rat mesentery networks and one mouse brain cortex network. We inferred distributions for more than five hundred unknown pressure and hematocrit boundary conditions. Model predictions were consistent with previous analyses, and remained robust when measurements were omitted from model calibration. Conclusion Our Bayesian probabilistic approach may be suitable for optimizing data acquisition and for analyzing and reporting large datasets acquired as part of microvascular imaging studies. PMID:27987383

Bayesian evidence for non-zero θ 13 and CP-violation in neutrino oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergström, Johannes

2012-08-01

We present the Bayesian method for evaluating the evidence for a non-zero value of the leptonic mixing angle θ 13 and CP-violation in neutrino oscillation experiments. This is an application of the well-established method of Bayesian model selection, of which we give a concise and pedagogical overview. When comparing the hypothesis θ 13 = 0 with hypotheses where θ 13 > 0 using global data but excluding the recent reactor measurements, we obtain only a weak preference for a non-zero θ 13, even though the significance is over 3 σ. We then add the reactor measurements one by one and show how the evidence for θ 13 > 0 quickly increases. When including the D ouble C hooz, D aya B ay, and RENO data, the evidence becomes overwhelming with a posterior probability of the hypothesis θ 13 = 0 below 10-11. Owing to the small amount of information on the CP-phase δ, very similar evidences are obtained for the CP-conserving and CP-violating hypotheses. Hence, there is, not unexpectedly, neither evidence for nor against leptonic CP-violation. However, when future experiments aiming to search for CP-violation have started taking data, this question will be of great importance and the method described here can be used as an important complement to standard analyses.

Bayesian model calibration of computational models in velocimetry diagnosed dynamic compression experiments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Justin; Hund, Lauren

2017-02-01

Dynamic compression experiments are being performed on complicated materials using increasingly complex drivers. The data produced in these experiments are beginning to reach a regime where traditional analysis techniques break down; requiring the solution of an inverse problem. A common measurement in dynamic experiments is an interface velocity as a function of time, and often this functional output can be simulated using a hydrodynamics code. Bayesian model calibration is a statistical framework to estimate inputs into a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties, making it well suited to measurements of this type. In this article, we apply Bayesianmore » model calibration to high pressure (250 GPa) ramp compression measurements in tantalum. We address several issues speci c to this calibration including the functional nature of the output as well as parameter and model discrepancy identi ability. Speci cally, we propose scaling the likelihood function by an e ective sample size rather than modeling the autocorrelation function to accommodate the functional output and propose sensitivity analyses using the notion of `modularization' to assess the impact of experiment-speci c nuisance input parameters on estimates of material properties. We conclude that the proposed Bayesian model calibration procedure results in simple, fast, and valid inferences on the equation of state parameters for tantalum.« less

Forensic Signature Detection of Yersinia Pestis Culturing Practices Across Institutions Using a Bayesian Network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Corley, Courtney D.; McCue, Lee Ann

The field of bioforensics is focused on the analysis of evidence from a biocrime. Existing laboratory analyses can identify the specific strain of an organism in the evidence, as well signatures of the specific culture batch of organisms, such as low-frequency contaminants or indicators of growth and processing methods. To link these disparate types of physical data to potential suspects, investigators may need to identify institutions or individuals whose access to strains and culturing practices match those identified from the evidence. In this work we present a Bayesian statistical network to fuse different types of analytical measurements that predict themore » production environment of a Yersinia pestis sample under investigation with automated test processing of scientific publications to identify institutions with a history of growing Y. pestis under similar conditions. Furthermore, the textual and experimental signatures were evaluated recursively to determine the overall sensitivity of the network across all levels of false positives. We illustrate that institutions associated with several specific culturing practices can be accurately selected based on the experimental signature from only a few analytical measurements. These findings demonstrate that similar Bayesian networks can be generated generically for many organisms of interest and their deployment is not prohibitive due to either computational or experimental factors.« less

High correlations between MRI brain volume measurements based on NeuroQuant® and FreeSurfer.

PubMed

Ross, David E; Ochs, Alfred L; Tate, David F; Tokac, Umit; Seabaugh, John; Abildskov, Tracy J; Bigler, Erin D

2018-05-30

NeuroQuant ® (NQ) and FreeSurfer (FS) are commonly used computer-automated programs for measuring MRI brain volume. Previously they were reported to have high intermethod reliabilities but often large intermethod effect size differences. We hypothesized that linear transformations could be used to reduce the large effect sizes. This study was an extension of our previously reported study. We performed NQ and FS brain volume measurements on 60 subjects (including normal controls, patients with traumatic brain injury, and patients with Alzheimer's disease). We used two statistical approaches in parallel to develop methods for transforming FS volumes into NQ volumes: traditional linear regression, and Bayesian linear regression. For both methods, we used regression analyses to develop linear transformations of the FS volumes to make them more similar to the NQ volumes. The FS-to-NQ transformations based on traditional linear regression resulted in effect sizes which were small to moderate. The transformations based on Bayesian linear regression resulted in all effect sizes being trivially small. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing a method for transforming FS to NQ data so as to achieve high reliability and low effect size differences. Machine learning methods like Bayesian regression may be more useful than traditional methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny and Bayesian divergence time estimations of small-headed flies (Diptera: Acroceridae) using multiple molecular markers.

PubMed

Winterton, Shaun L; Wiegmann, Brian M; Schlinger, Evert I

2007-06-01

The first formal analysis of phylogenetic relationships among small-headed flies (Acroceridae) is presented based on DNA sequence data from two ribosomal (16S and 28S) and two protein-encoding genes: carbomoylphosphate synthase (CPS) domain of CAD (i.e., rudimentary locus) and cytochrome oxidase I (COI). DNA sequences from 40 species in 22 genera of Acroceridae (representing all three subfamilies) were compared with outgroup exemplars from Nemestrinidae, Stratiomyidae, Tabanidae, and Xylophagidae. Parsimony and Bayesian simultaneous analyses of the full data set recover a well-resolved and strongly supported hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships for major lineages within the family. Molecular evidence supports the monophyly of traditionally recognised subfamilies Philopotinae and Panopinae, but Acrocerinae are polyphyletic. Panopinae, sometimes considered "primitive" based on morphology and host-use, are always placed in a more derived position in the current study. Furthermore, these data support emerging morphological evidence that the type genus Acrocera Meigen, and its sister genus Sphaerops, are atypical acrocerids, comprising a sister lineage to all other Acroceridae. Based on the phylogeny generated in the simultaneous analysis, historical divergence times were estimated using Bayesian methodology constrained with fossil data. These estimates indicate Acroceridae likely evolved during the late Triassic but did not diversify greatly until the Cretaceous.

Evaluation of funnel traps for estimating tree mortality and associated population phase of spruce beetle in Utah

Treesearch

E. Matthew Hansen; Barbara J. Bentz; A. Steven Munson; James C. Vandygriff; David L. Turner

2006-01-01

Although funnel traps are routinely used to manage bark beetles, little is known regarding the relationship between trap captures of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) and mortality of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) within a 10 ha block of the trap. Using recursive partitioning tree analyses, rules...

Optimal Partitioning of a Data Set Based on the "p"-Median Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brusco, Michael J.; Kohn, Hans-Friedrich

2008-01-01

Although the "K"-means algorithm for minimizing the within-cluster sums of squared deviations from cluster centroids is perhaps the most common method for applied cluster analyses, a variety of other criteria are available. The "p"-median model is an especially well-studied clustering problem that requires the selection of "p" objects to serve as…

Space shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optional estimation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

A regression analyses on tabular aerodynamic data provided. A representative aerodynamic model for coefficient estimation. It also reduced the storage requirements for the "normal' model used to check out the estimation algorithms. The results of the regression analyses are presented. The computer routines for the filter portion of the estimation algorithm and the :"bringing-up' of the SRB predictive program on the computer was developed. For the filter program, approximately 54 routines were developed. The routines were highly subsegmented to facilitate overlaying program segments within the partitioned storage space on the computer.

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

PubMed Central

Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889

Role of the Kazerun fault system in active deformation of the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt (Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Authemayou, Christine; Bellier, Olivier; Chardon, Dominique; Malekzade, Zaman; Abassi, Mohammad

2005-04-01

Field structural and SPOT image analyses document the kinematic framework enhancing transfer of strike-slip partitioned motion from along the backstop to the interior of the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt in a context of plate convergence slight obliquity. Transfer occurs by slip on the north-trending right-lateral Kazerun Fault System (KFS) that connects to the Main Recent Fault, a major northwest-trending dextral fault partitioning oblique convergence at the rear of the belt. The KFS formed by three fault zones ended by bent orogen-parallel thrusts allows slip from along the Main Recent Fault to become distributed by transfer to longitudinal thrusts and folds. To cite this article: C. Authemayou et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

Structural and functional partitioning of bread wheat chromosome 3B.

PubMed

Choulet, Frédéric; Alberti, Adriana; Theil, Sébastien; Glover, Natasha; Barbe, Valérie; Daron, Josquin; Pingault, Lise; Sourdille, Pierre; Couloux, Arnaud; Paux, Etienne; Leroy, Philippe; Mangenot, Sophie; Guilhot, Nicolas; Le Gouis, Jacques; Balfourier, Francois; Alaux, Michael; Jamilloux, Véronique; Poulain, Julie; Durand, Céline; Bellec, Arnaud; Gaspin, Christine; Safar, Jan; Dolezel, Jaroslav; Rogers, Jane; Vandepoele, Klaas; Aury, Jean-Marc; Mayer, Klaus; Berges, Hélène; Quesneville, Hadi; Wincker, Patrick; Feuillet, Catherine

2014-07-18

We produced a reference sequence of the 1-gigabase chromosome 3B of hexaploid bread wheat. By sequencing 8452 bacterial artificial chromosomes in pools, we assembled a sequence of 774 megabases carrying 5326 protein-coding genes, 1938 pseudogenes, and 85% of transposable elements. The distribution of structural and functional features along the chromosome revealed partitioning correlated with meiotic recombination. Comparative analyses indicated high wheat-specific inter- and intrachromosomal gene duplication activities that are potential sources of variability for adaption. In addition to providing a better understanding of the organization, function, and evolution of a large and polyploid genome, the availability of a high-quality sequence anchored to genetic maps will accelerate the identification of genes underlying important agronomic traits. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Structure and stability of genetic variance-covariance matrices: A Bayesian sparse factor analysis of transcriptional variation in the three-spined stickleback.

PubMed

Siren, J; Ovaskainen, O; Merilä, J

2017-10-01

The genetic variance-covariance matrix (G) is a quantity of central importance in evolutionary biology due to its influence on the rate and direction of multivariate evolution. However, the predictive power of empirically estimated G-matrices is limited for two reasons. First, phenotypes are high-dimensional, whereas traditional statistical methods are tuned to estimate and analyse low-dimensional matrices. Second, the stability of G to environmental effects and over time remains poorly understood. Using Bayesian sparse factor analysis (BSFG) designed to estimate high-dimensional G-matrices, we analysed levels variation and covariation in 10,527 expressed genes in a large (n = 563) half-sib breeding design of three-spined sticklebacks subject to two temperature treatments. We found significant differences in the structure of G between the treatments: heritabilities and evolvabilities were higher in the warm than in the low-temperature treatment, suggesting more and faster opportunity to evolve in warm (stressful) conditions. Furthermore, comparison of G and its phenotypic equivalent P revealed the latter is a poor substitute of the former. Most strikingly, the results suggest that the expected impact of G on evolvability-as well as the similarity among G-matrices-may depend strongly on the number of traits included into analyses. In our results, the inclusion of only few traits in the analyses leads to underestimation in the differences between the G-matrices and their predicted impacts on evolution. While the results highlight the challenges involved in estimating G, they also illustrate that by enabling the estimation of large G-matrices, the BSFG method can improve predicted evolutionary responses to selection. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analyses of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) indicate rapid radiation of Diospyros species (Ebenaceae) endemic to New Caledonia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Radiation in some plant groups has occurred on islands and due to the characteristic rapid pace of phenotypic evolution, standard molecular markers often provide insufficient variation for phylogenetic reconstruction. To resolve relationships within a clade of 21 closely related New Caledonian Diospyros species and evaluate species boundaries we analysed genome-wide DNA variation via amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP). Results A neighbour-joining (NJ) dendrogram based on Dice distances shows all species except D. minimifolia, D. parviflora and D. vieillardii to form unique clusters of genetically similar accessions. However, there was little variation between these species clusters, resulting in unresolved species relationships and a star-like general NJ topology. Correspondingly, analyses of molecular variance showed more variation within species than between them. A Bayesian analysis with BEAST produced a similar result. Another Bayesian method, this time a clustering method, Structure, demonstrated the presence of two groups, highly congruent with those observed in a principal coordinate analysis (PCO). Molecular divergence between the two groups is low and does not correspond to any hypothesised taxonomic, ecological or geographical patterns. Conclusions We hypothesise that such a pattern could have been produced by rapid and complex evolution involving a widespread progenitor for which an initial split into two groups was followed by subsequent fragmentation into many diverging populations, which was followed by range expansion of then divergent entities. Overall, this process resulted in an opportunistic pattern of phenotypic diversification. The time since divergence was probably insufficient for some species to become genetically well-differentiated, resulting in progenitor/derivative relationships being exhibited in a few cases. In other cases, our analyses may have revealed evidence for the existence of cryptic species, for which more study of morphology and ecology are now required. PMID:24330478

Neural network modeling and an uncertainty analysis in Bayesian framework: A case study from the KTB borehole site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maiti, Saumen; Tiwari, Ram Krishna

2010-10-01

A new probabilistic approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) learning theory is proposed for decoding litho-facies boundaries from well-log data. We show that how a multi-layer-perceptron neural network model can be employed in Bayesian framework to classify changes in litho-log successions. The method is then applied to the German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB) well-log data for classification and uncertainty estimation in the litho-facies boundaries. In this framework, a posteriori distribution of network parameter is estimated via the principle of Bayesian probabilistic theory, and an objective function is minimized following the scaled conjugate gradient optimization scheme. For the model development, we inflict a suitable criterion, which provides probabilistic information by emulating different combinations of synthetic data. Uncertainty in the relationship between the data and the model space is appropriately taken care by assuming a Gaussian a priori distribution of networks parameters (e.g., synaptic weights and biases). Prior to applying the new method to the real KTB data, we tested the proposed method on synthetic examples to examine the sensitivity of neural network hyperparameters in prediction. Within this framework, we examine stability and efficiency of this new probabilistic approach using different kinds of synthetic data assorted with different level of correlated noise. Our data analysis suggests that the designed network topology based on the Bayesian paradigm is steady up to nearly 40% correlated noise; however, adding more noise (˜50% or more) degrades the results. We perform uncertainty analyses on training, validation, and test data sets with and devoid of intrinsic noise by making the Gaussian approximation of the a posteriori distribution about the peak model. We present a standard deviation error-map at the network output corresponding to the three types of the litho-facies present over the entire litho-section of the KTB. The comparisons of maximum a posteriori geological sections constructed here, based on the maximum a posteriori probability distribution, with the available geological information and the existing geophysical findings suggest that the BNN results reveal some additional finer details in the KTB borehole data at certain depths, which appears to be of some geological significance. We also demonstrate that the proposed BNN approach is superior to the conventional artificial neural network in terms of both avoiding "over-fitting" and aiding uncertainty estimation, which are vital for meaningful interpretation of geophysical records. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN-based approach renders a robust means for the classification of complex changes in the litho-facies successions and thus could provide a useful guide for understanding the crustal inhomogeneity and the structural discontinuity in many other tectonically complex regions.

Bayesian sensitivity analysis of bifurcating nonlinear models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, W.; Worden, K.; Rowson, J.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis allows one to investigate how changes in input parameters to a system affect the output. When computational expense is a concern, metamodels such as Gaussian processes can offer considerable computational savings over Monte Carlo methods, albeit at the expense of introducing a data modelling problem. In particular, Gaussian processes assume a smooth, non-bifurcating response surface. This work highlights a recent extension to Gaussian processes which uses a decision tree to partition the input space into homogeneous regions, and then fits separate Gaussian processes to each region. In this way, bifurcations can be modelled at region boundaries and different regions can have different covariance properties. To test this method, both the treed and standard methods were applied to the bifurcating response of a Duffing oscillator and a bifurcating FE model of a heart valve. It was found that the treed Gaussian process provides a practical way of performing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on large, potentially-bifurcating models, which cannot be dealt with by using a single GP, although an open problem remains how to manage bifurcation boundaries that are not parallel to coordinate axes.

A New Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Marginal Likelihoods.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Bo; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Paul O

2018-06-01

Evaluating the marginal likelihood in Bayesian analysis is essential for model selection. Estimators based on a single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample from the posterior distribution include the harmonic mean estimator and the inflated density ratio estimator. We propose a new class of Monte Carlo estimators based on this single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample. This class can be thought of as a generalization of the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators using a partition weighted kernel (likelihood times prior). We show that our estimator is consistent and has better theoretical properties than the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators. In addition, we provide guidelines on choosing optimal weights. Simulation studies were conducted to examine the empirical performance of the proposed estimator. We further demonstrate the desirable features of the proposed estimator with two real data sets: one is from a prostate cancer study using an ordinal probit regression model with latent variables; the other is for the power prior construction from two Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group phase III clinical trials using the cure rate survival model with similar objectives.

Effect of water on the fluorine and chlorine partitioning behavior between olivine and silicate melt.

PubMed

Joachim, Bastian; Stechern, André; Ludwig, Thomas; Konzett, Jürgen; Pawley, Alison; Ruzié-Hamilton, Lorraine; Clay, Patricia L; Burgess, Ray; Ballentine, Christopher J

2017-01-01

Halogens show a range from moderate (F) to highly (Cl, Br, I) volatile and incompatible behavior, which makes them excellent tracers for volatile transport processes in the Earth's mantle. Experimentally determined fluorine and chlorine partitioning data between mantle minerals and silicate melt enable us to estimate Mid Ocean Ridge Basalt (MORB) and Ocean Island Basalt (OIB) source region concentrations for these elements. This study investigates the effect of varying small amounts of water on the fluorine and chlorine partitioning behavior at 1280 °C and 0.3 GPa between olivine and silicate melt in the Fe-free CMAS+F-Cl-Br-I-H 2 O model system. Results show that, within the uncertainty of the analyses, water has no effect on the chlorine partitioning behavior for bulk water contents ranging from 0.03 (2) wt% H 2 O (D Cl ol/melt = 1.6 ± 0.9 × 10 -4 ) to 0.33 (6) wt% H 2 O (D Cl ol/melt = 2.2 ± 1.1 × 10 -4 ). Consequently, with the effect of pressure being negligible in the uppermost mantle (Joachim et al. Chem Geol 416:65-78, 2015), temperature is the only parameter that needs to be considered for the determination of chlorine partition coefficients between olivine and melt at least in the simplified iron-free CMAS+F-Cl-Br-I-H 2 O system. In contrast, the fluorine partition coefficient increases linearly in this range and may be described at 1280 °C and 0.3 GPa with ( R 2  = 0.99): [Formula: see text]. The observed fluorine partitioning behavior supports the theory suggested by Crépisson et al. (Earth Planet Sci Lett 390:287-295, 2014) that fluorine and water are incorporated as clumped OH/F defects in the olivine structure. Results of this study further suggest that fluorine concentration estimates in OIB source regions are at least 10% lower than previously expected (Joachim et al. Chem Geol 416:65-78, 2015), implying that consideration of the effect of water on the fluorine partitioning behavior between Earth's mantle minerals and silicate melt is vital for a correct estimation of fluorine abundances in OIB source regions. Estimates for MORB source fluorine concentrations as well as chlorine abundances in both mantle source regions are within uncertainty not affected by the presence of water.

Species trees from consensus single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data: Testing phylogenetic approaches with simulated and empirical data.

PubMed

Schmidt-Lebuhn, Alexander N; Aitken, Nicola C; Chuah, Aaron

2017-11-01

Datasets of hundreds or thousands of SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) from multiple individuals per species are increasingly used to study population structure, species delimitation and shallow phylogenetics. The principal software tool to infer species or population trees from SNP data is currently the BEAST template SNAPP which uses a Bayesian coalescent analysis. However, it is computationally extremely demanding and tolerates only small amounts of missing data. We used simulated and empirical SNPs from plants (Australian Craspedia, Asteraceae, and Pelargonium, Geraniaceae) to compare species trees produced (1) by SNAPP, (2) using SVD quartets, and (3) using Bayesian and parsimony analysis with several different approaches to summarising data from multiple samples into one set of traits per species. Our aims were to explore the impact of tree topology and missing data on the results, and to test which data summarising and analyses approaches would best approximate the results obtained from SNAPP for empirical data. SVD quartets retrieved the correct topology from simulated data, as did SNAPP except in the case of a very unbalanced phylogeny. Both methods failed to retrieve the correct topology when large amounts of data were missing. Bayesian analysis of species level summary data scoring the two alleles of each SNP as independent characters and parsimony analysis of data scoring each SNP as one character produced trees with branch length distributions closest to the true trees on which SNPs were simulated. For empirical data, Bayesian inference and Dollo parsimony analysis of data scored allele-wise produced phylogenies most congruent with the results of SNAPP. In the case of study groups divergent enough for missing data to be phylogenetically informative (because of additional mutations preventing amplification of genomic fragments or bioinformatic establishment of homology), scoring of SNP data as a presence/absence matrix irrespective of allele content might be an additional option. As this depends on sampling across species being reasonably even and a random distribution of non-informative instances of missing data, however, further exploration of this approach is needed. Properly chosen data summary approaches to inferring species trees from SNP data may represent a potential alternative to currently available individual-level coalescent analyses especially for quick data exploration and when dealing with computationally demanding or patchy datasets. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Tummon, Fiona; Haigh, Joanna D.

2017-10-01

Observations of stratospheric ozone from multiple instruments now span three decades; combining these into composite datasets allows long-term ozone trends to be estimated. Recently, several ozone composites have been published, but trends disagree by latitude and altitude, even between composites built upon the same instrument data. We confirm that the main causes of differences in decadal trend estimates lie in (i) steps in the composite time series when the instrument source data changes and (ii) artificial sub-decadal trends in the underlying instrument data. These artefacts introduce features that can alias with regressors in multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis; both can lead to inaccurate trend estimates. Here, we aim to remove these artefacts using Bayesian methods to infer the underlying ozone time series from a set of composites by building a joint-likelihood function using a Gaussian-mixture density to model outliers introduced by data artefacts, together with a data-driven prior on ozone variability that incorporates knowledge of problems during instrument operation. We apply this Bayesian self-calibration approach to stratospheric ozone in 10° bands from 60° S to 60° N and from 46 to 1 hPa (˜ 21-48 km) for 1985-2012. There are two main outcomes: (i) we independently identify and confirm many of the data problems previously identified, but which remain unaccounted for in existing composites; (ii) we construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties, that is free from most of these problems - we call this the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite. To analyse the new BASIC composite, we use dynamical linear modelling (DLM), which provides a more robust estimate of long-term changes through Bayesian inference than MLR. BASIC and DLM, together, provide a step forward in improving estimates of decadal trends. Our results indicate a significant recovery of ozone since 1998 in the upper stratosphere, of both northern and southern midlatitudes, in all four composites analysed, and particularly in the BASIC composite. The BASIC results also show no hemispheric difference in the recovery at midlatitudes, in contrast to an apparent feature that is present, but not consistent, in the four composites. Our overall conclusion is that it is possible to effectively combine different ozone composites and account for artefacts and drifts, and that this leads to a clear and significant result that upper stratospheric ozone levels have increased since 1998, following an earlier decline.

Computer-Based Model Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis: Terms and Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

uncertainty analyses throughout the lifecycle of planning, designing, and operating of Civil Works flood risk management projects as described in...value 95% of the time. In the frequentist approach to PE, model parameters area regarded as having true values, and their estimate is based on the...in catchment models. 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty. Water Resources Research 19(5):1151–1172. Lee, P. M. 2012. Bayesian statistics: An

Molecular phylogeny of black fungus gnats (Diptera: Sciaroidea: Sciaridae) and the evolution of larval habitats.

PubMed

Shin, Seunggwan; Jung, Sunghoon; Menzel, Frank; Heller, Kai; Lee, Heungsik; Lee, Seunghwan

2013-03-01

The phylogeny of the family Sciaridae is reconstructed, based on maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony, and Bayesian analyses of 4809bp from two mitochondrial (COI and 16S) and two nuclear (18S and 28S) genes for 100 taxa including the outgroup taxa. According to the present phylogenetic analyses, Sciaridae comprise three subfamilies and two genus groups: Sciarinae, Chaetosciara group, Cratyninae, and Pseudolycoriella group+Megalosphyinae. Our molecular results are largely congruent with one of the former hypotheses based on morphological data with respect to the monophyly of genera and subfamilies (Sciarinae, Megalosphyinae, and part of postulated "new subfamily"); however, the subfamily Cratyninae is shown to be polyphyletic, and the genera Bradysia, Corynoptera, Leptosciarella, Lycoriella, and Phytosciara are also recognized as non-monophyletic groups. While the ancestral larval habitat state of the family Sciaridae, based on Bayesian inference, is dead plant material (plant litter+rotten wood), the common ancestors of Phytosciara and Bradysia are inferred to living plants habitat. Therefore, shifts in larval habitats from dead plant material to living plants may have occurred within the Sciaridae at least once. Based on the results, we discuss phylogenetic relationships within the family, and present an evolutionary scenario of development of larval habitats. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental Exposure to Manganese in Air: Associations ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BACKGROUND: Manganese (Mn) inhalation has been associated with neuropsychological and neurological sequelae in exposed workers. Few environmental epidemiologic studies have examined the potentialy neurotoxic effects of Mn exposure in ambient air on motor function and hand tremor in adult community residents. Mn exposed residents were recruited in two Ohio towns: Marietta, a town near a ferro-manganese smelter, and East Liverpool, a town adjacent to a facility processing, crushing, screening, and packaging Mn products.METHODS: Chronic (≥10years) exposure to ambient air Mn in adult residents and effects on neuropsychological and neurological outcomes were investigated. Participants from Marietta (n=100) and East Liverpool (n=86) were combined for analyses. AERMOD dispersion modeling of fixed-site outdoor air monitoring data estimated Mn inhalation over a ten year period. Adult Mn­ exposed residents' psychomotor ability was assessed using Finger Tapping, Hand Dynamometer, Grooved Pegbcard, and the Computerized Adaptive Testing System (CATSYS) Tremor system.Bayesian structural equation modeling was used to assess associations between air-Mn and motor function and tremor .RESULTS: Air-Mn exposure was significantly correlated in bivariate analyses with the tremor test (CATSYS) for intensity, center frequency and harmonic index. The Bayesian path analysis model showed associations of air-Mn with the CATSYS non-dominant center frequency and harmonic ind

TOWARD A MOLECULAR PHYLOGENY FOR PEROMYSCUS: EVIDENCE FROM MITOCHONDRIAL CYTOCHROME-b SEQUENCES

PubMed Central

Bradley, Robert D.; Durish, Nevin D.; Rogers, Duke S.; Miller, Jacqueline R.; Engstrom, Mark D.; Kilpatrick, C. William

2009-01-01

One hundred DNA sequences from the mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene of 44 species of deer mice (Peromyscus (sensu stricto), 1 of Habromys, 1 of Isthmomys, 2 of Megadontomys, and the monotypic genera Neotomodon, Osgoodomys, and Podomys were used to develop a molecular phylogeny for Peromyscus. Phylogenetic analyses (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference) were conducted to evaluate alternative hypotheses concerning taxonomic arrangements (sensu stricto versus sensu lato) of the genus. In all analyses, monophyletic clades were obtained that corresponded to species groups proposed by previous authors; however, relationships among species groups generally were poorly resolved. The concept of the genus Peromyscus based on molecular data differed significantly from the most current taxonomic arrangement. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian trees depicted strong support for a clade placing Habromys, Megadontomys, Neotomodon, Osgoodomys, and Podomys within Peromyscus. If Habromys, Megadontomys, Neotomodon, Osgoodomys, and Podomys are regarded as genera, then several species groups within Peromyscus (sensu stricto) should be elevated to generic rank. Isthmomys was associated with the genus Reithrodontomys; in turn this clade was sister to Baiomys, indicating a distant relationship of Isthmomys to Peromyscus. A formal taxonomic revision awaits synthesis of additional sequence data from nuclear markers together with inclusion of available allozymic and karyotypic data. PMID:19924266

Genetic Structure of Bluefin Tuna in the Mediterranean Sea Correlates with Environmental Variables

PubMed Central

Riccioni, Giulia; Stagioni, Marco; Landi, Monica; Ferrara, Giorgia; Barbujani, Guido; Tinti, Fausto

2013-01-01

Background Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ABFT) shows complex demography and ecological variation in the Mediterranean Sea. Genetic surveys have detected significant, although weak, signals of population structuring; catch series analyses and tagging programs identified complex ABFT spatial dynamics and migration patterns. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the genetic structure of the ABFT in the Mediterranean is correlated with mean surface temperature and salinity. Methodology We used six samples collected from Western and Central Mediterranean integrated with a new sample collected from the recently identified easternmost reproductive area of Levantine Sea. To assess population structure in the Mediterranean we used a multidisciplinary framework combining classical population genetics, spatial and Bayesian clustering methods and a multivariate approach based on factor analysis. Conclusions FST analysis and Bayesian clustering methods detected several subpopulations in the Mediterranean, a result also supported by multivariate analyses. In addition, we identified significant correlations of genetic diversity with mean salinity and surface temperature values revealing that ABFT is genetically structured along two environmental gradients. These results suggest that a preference for some spawning habitat conditions could contribute to shape ABFT genetic structuring in the Mediterranean. However, further studies should be performed to assess to what extent ABFT spawning behaviour in the Mediterranean Sea can be affected by environmental variation. PMID:24260341

Multiple optimality criteria support Ornithoscelida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parry, Luke A.; Baron, Matthew G.; Vinther, Jakob

2017-10-01

A recent study of early dinosaur evolution using equal-weights parsimony recovered a scheme of dinosaur interrelationships and classification that differed from historical consensus in a single, but significant, respect; Ornithischia and Saurischia were not recovered as monophyletic sister-taxa, but rather Ornithischia and Theropoda formed a novel clade named Ornithoscelida. However, these analyses only used maximum parsimony, and numerous recent simulation studies have questioned the accuracy of parsimony under equal weights. Here, we provide additional support for this alternative hypothesis using Bayesian implementation of the Mkv model, as well as through number of additional parsimony analyses, including implied weighting. Using Bayesian inference and implied weighting, we recover the same fundamental topology for Dinosauria as the original study, with a monophyletic Ornithoscelida, demonstrating that the main suite of methods used in morphological phylogenetics recover this novel hypothesis. This result was further scrutinized through the systematic exclusion of different character sets. Novel characters from the original study (those not taken or adapted from previous phylogenetic studies) were found to be more important for resolving the relationships within Dinosauromorpha than the relationships within Dinosauria. Reanalysis of a modified version of the character matrix that supports the Ornithischia-Saurischia dichotomy under maximum parsimony also supports this hypothesis under implied weighting, but not under the Mkv model, with both Theropoda and Sauropodomorpha becoming paraphyletic with respect to Ornithischia.

Field Synopsis and Re-analysis of Systematic Meta-analyses of Genetic Association Studies in Multiple Sclerosis: a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Park, Jae Hyon; Kim, Joo Hi; Jo, Kye Eun; Na, Se Whan; Eisenhut, Michael; Kronbichler, Andreas; Lee, Keum Hwa; Shin, Jae Il

2018-07-01

To provide an up-to-date summary of multiple sclerosis-susceptible gene variants and assess the noteworthiness in hopes of finding true associations, we investigated the results of 44 meta-analyses on gene variants and multiple sclerosis published through December 2016. Out of 70 statistically significant genotype associations, roughly a fifth (21%) of the comparisons showed noteworthy false-positive rate probability (FPRP) at a statistical power to detect an OR of 1.5 and at a prior probability of 10 -6 assumed for a random single nucleotide polymorphism. These associations (IRF8/rs17445836, STAT3/rs744166, HLA/rs4959093, HLA/rs2647046, HLA/rs7382297, HLA/rs17421624, HLA/rs2517646, HLA/rs9261491, HLA/rs2857439, HLA/rs16896944, HLA/rs3132671, HLA/rs2857435, HLA/rs9261471, HLA/rs2523393, HLA-DRB1/rs3135388, RGS1/rs2760524, PTGER4/rs9292777) also showed a noteworthy Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP) and one additional association (CD24 rs8734/rs52812045) was also noteworthy via BFDP computation. Herein, we have identified several noteworthy biomarkers of multiple sclerosis susceptibility. We hope these data are used to study multiple sclerosis genetics and inform future screening programs.

Spatial analysis to identify hotspots of prevalence of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Moreno, Berta; García-Alonso, Carlos R; Negrín Hernández, Miguel A; Torres-González, Francisco; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2008-10-01

The geographical distribution of mental health disorders is useful information for epidemiological research and health services planning. To determine the existence of geographical hotspots with a high prevalence of schizophrenia in a mental health area in Spain. The study included 774 patients with schizophrenia who were users of the community mental health care service in the area of South Granada. Spatial analysis (Kernel estimation) and Bayesian relative risks were used to locate potential hotspots. Availability and accessibility were both rated in each zone and spatial algebra was applied to identify hotspots in a particular zone. The age-corrected prevalence rate of schizophrenia was 2.86 per 1,000 population in the South Granada area. Bayesian analysis showed a relative risk varying from 0.43 to 2.33. The area analysed had a non-uniform spatial distribution of schizophrenia, with one main hotspot (zone S2). This zone had poor accessibility to and availability of mental health services. A municipality-based variation exists in the prevalence of schizophrenia and related disorders in the study area. Spatial analysis techniques are useful tools to analyse the heterogeneous distribution of a variable and to explain genetic/environmental factors in hotspots related with a lack of easy availability of and accessibility to adequate health care services.

Phylogeography of the Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus): testing aridland biogeographical hypotheses across the Nearctic-Neotropical transition.

PubMed

Devitt, Thomas J

2006-12-01

The Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus) is a widespread, polytypic taxon inhabiting arid regions from the warm deserts of the southwestern United States southward along the Pacific versant of Mexico to the tropical deciduous forests of Mesoamerica. This broadly distributed species provides a unique opportunity to evaluate a priori biogeographical hypotheses spanning two major distinct biogeographical realms (the Nearctic and Neotropical) that are usually treated separately in phylogeographical analyses. I investigated the phylogeography of T. biscutatus using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from across this species' range. Phylogenetic analyses recovered five well-supported clades whose boundaries are concordant with existing geographical barriers, a pattern consistent with a model of vicariant allopatric divergence. Assuming a vicariance model, divergence times between mitochondrial lineages were estimated using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock methods calibrated using geological information from putative vicariant events. Divergence time point estimates were bounded by broad confidence intervals, and thus these highly conservative estimates should be considered tentative hypotheses at best. Comparison of mtDNA lineages and taxa traditionally recognized as subspecies based on morphology suggest this taxon is comprised of multiple independent lineages at various stages of divergence, ranging from putative secondary contact and hybridization to sympatry of 'subspecies'.

PyBetVH: A Python tool for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and for generation of Bayesian hazard curves and maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Anne Thompson, Mary

2015-06-01

PyBetVH is a completely new, free, open-source and cross-platform software implementation of the Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH), a tool for estimating the probability of any magmatic hazardous phenomenon occurring in a selected time frame, accounting for all the uncertainties. New capabilities of this implementation include the ability to calculate hazard curves which describe the distribution of the exceedance probability as a function of intensity (e.g., tephra load) on a grid of points covering the target area. The computed hazard curves are (i) absolute (accounting for the probability of eruption in a given time frame, and for all the possible vent locations and eruptive sizes) and (ii) Bayesian (computed at different percentiles, in order to quantify the epistemic uncertainty). Such curves allow representation of the full information contained in the probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) and are well suited to become a main input to quantitative risk analyses. PyBetVH allows for interactive visualization of both the computed hazard curves, and the corresponding Bayesian hazard/probability maps. PyBetVH is designed to minimize the efforts of end users, making PVHA results accessible to people who may be less experienced in probabilistic methodologies, e.g. decision makers. The broad compatibility of Python language has also allowed PyBetVH to be installed on the VHub cyber-infrastructure, where it can be run online or downloaded at no cost. PyBetVH can be used to assess any type of magmatic hazard from any volcano. Here we illustrate how to perform a PVHA through PyBetVH using the example of analyzing tephra fallout from the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC), New Zealand, and highlight the range of outputs that the tool can generate.

Bayesian methods to determine performance differences and to quantify variability among centers in multi-center trials: the IHAST trial.

PubMed

Bayman, Emine O; Chaloner, Kathryn M; Hindman, Bradley J; Todd, Michael M

2013-01-16

To quantify the variability among centers and to identify centers whose performance are potentially outside of normal variability in the primary outcome and to propose a guideline that they are outliers. Novel statistical methodology using a Bayesian hierarchical model is used. Bayesian methods for estimation and outlier detection are applied assuming an additive random center effect on the log odds of response: centers are similar but different (exchangeable). The Intraoperative Hypothermia for Aneurysm Surgery Trial (IHAST) is used as an example. Analyses were adjusted for treatment, age, gender, aneurysm location, World Federation of Neurological Surgeons scale, Fisher score and baseline NIH stroke scale scores. Adjustments for differences in center characteristics were also examined. Graphical and numerical summaries of the between-center standard deviation (sd) and variability, as well as the identification of potential outliers are implemented. In the IHAST, the center-to-center variation in the log odds of favorable outcome at each center is consistent with a normal distribution with posterior sd of 0.538 (95% credible interval: 0.397 to 0.726) after adjusting for the effects of important covariates. Outcome differences among centers show no outlying centers. Four potential outlying centers were identified but did not meet the proposed guideline for declaring them as outlying. Center characteristics (number of subjects enrolled from the center, geographical location, learning over time, nitrous oxide, and temporary clipping use) did not predict outcome, but subject and disease characteristics did. Bayesian hierarchical methods allow for determination of whether outcomes from a specific center differ from others and whether specific clinical practices predict outcome, even when some centers/subgroups have relatively small sample sizes. In the IHAST no outlying centers were found. The estimated variability between centers was moderately large.

A Bayesian method for assessing multiscalespecies-habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

ContextScientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multi-scale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large.ObjectivesOur objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance.MethodsWe introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian method to select spatial scales of predictors using latent scale indicator variables that are estimated with reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. BLISS does not suffer from collinearity, and substantially reduces computation time of studies. We present a simulation study to validate our method and apply our method to a case-study of land cover predictors for ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance in Nebraska, USA.ResultsOur method returns accurate descriptions of the explanatory power of multiple spatial scales, and unbiased and precise parameter estimates under commonly encountered data limitations including spatial scale autocorrelation, effect size, and sample size. BLISS outperforms commonly used model selection methods including stepwise and AIC, and reduces runtime by 90%.ConclusionsGiven the pervasiveness of scale-dependency in ecology, and the implications of mismatches between the scales of analyses and ecological processes, identifying the spatial scales over which species are integrating habitat information is an important step in understanding species-habitat relationships. BLISS is a widely applicable method for identifying important spatial scales, propagating scale uncertainty, and testing hypotheses of scaling relationships.

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

Potential of SNP markers for the characterization of Brazilian cassava germplasm.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Eder Jorge; Ferreira, Cláudia Fortes; da Silva Santos, Vanderlei; de Jesus, Onildo Nunes; Oliveira, Gilmara Alvarenga Fachardo; da Silva, Maiane Suzarte

2014-06-01

High-throughput markers, such as SNPs, along with different methodologies were used to evaluate the applicability of the Bayesian approach and the multivariate analysis in structuring the genetic diversity in cassavas. The objective of the present work was to evaluate the diversity and genetic structure of the largest cassava germplasm bank in Brazil. Complementary methodological approaches such as discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC), Bayesian analysis and molecular analysis of variance (AMOVA) were used to understand the structure and diversity of 1,280 accessions genotyped using 402 single nucleotide polymorphism markers. The genetic diversity (0.327) and the average observed heterozygosity (0.322) were high considering the bi-allelic markers. In terms of population, the presence of a complex genetic structure was observed indicating the formation of 30 clusters by DAPC and 34 clusters by Bayesian analysis. Both methodologies presented difficulties and controversies in terms of the allocation of some accessions to specific clusters. However, the clusters suggested by the DAPC analysis seemed to be more consistent for presenting higher probability of allocation of the accessions within the clusters. Prior information related to breeding patterns and geographic origins of the accessions were not sufficient for providing clear differentiation between the clusters according to the AMOVA analysis. In contrast, the F ST was maximized when considering the clusters suggested by the Bayesian and DAPC analyses. The high frequency of germplasm exchange between producers and the subsequent alteration of the name of the same material may be one of the causes of the low association between genetic diversity and geographic origin. The results of this study may benefit cassava germplasm conservation programs, and contribute to the maximization of genetic gains in breeding programs.

A Bayesian nonparametric method for prediction in EST analysis

PubMed Central

Lijoi, Antonio; Mena, Ramsés H; Prünster, Igor

2007-01-01

Background Expressed sequence tags (ESTs) analyses are a fundamental tool for gene identification in organisms. Given a preliminary EST sample from a certain library, several statistical prediction problems arise. In particular, it is of interest to estimate how many new genes can be detected in a future EST sample of given size and also to determine the gene discovery rate: these estimates represent the basis for deciding whether to proceed sequencing the library and, in case of a positive decision, a guideline for selecting the size of the new sample. Such information is also useful for establishing sequencing efficiency in experimental design and for measuring the degree of redundancy of an EST library. Results In this work we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach for tackling statistical problems related to EST surveys. In particular, we provide estimates for: a) the coverage, defined as the proportion of unique genes in the library represented in the given sample of reads; b) the number of new unique genes to be observed in a future sample; c) the discovery rate of new genes as a function of the future sample size. The Bayesian nonparametric model we adopt conveys, in a statistically rigorous way, the available information into prediction. Our proposal has appealing properties over frequentist nonparametric methods, which become unstable when prediction is required for large future samples. EST libraries, previously studied with frequentist methods, are analyzed in detail. Conclusion The Bayesian nonparametric approach we undertake yields valuable tools for gene capture and prediction in EST libraries. The estimators we obtain do not feature the kind of drawbacks associated with frequentist estimators and are reliable for any size of the additional sample. PMID:17868445

A Bayesian computational model for online character recognition and disability assessment during cursive eye writing.

PubMed

Diard, Julien; Rynik, Vincent; Lorenceau, Jean

2013-01-01

This research involves a novel apparatus, in which the user is presented with an illusion inducing visual stimulus. The user perceives illusory movement that can be followed by the eye, so that smooth pursuit eye movements can be sustained in arbitrary directions. Thus, free-flow trajectories of any shape can be traced. In other words, coupled with an eye-tracking device, this apparatus enables "eye writing," which appears to be an original object of study. We adapt a previous model of reading and writing to this context. We describe a probabilistic model called the Bayesian Action-Perception for Eye On-Line model (BAP-EOL). It encodes probabilistic knowledge about isolated letter trajectories, their size, high-frequency components of the produced trajectory, and pupil diameter. We show how Bayesian inference, in this single model, can be used to solve several tasks, like letter recognition and novelty detection (i.e., recognizing when a presented character is not part of the learned database). We are interested in the potential use of the eye writing apparatus by motor impaired patients: the final task we solve by Bayesian inference is disability assessment (i.e., measuring and tracking the evolution of motor characteristics of produced trajectories). Preliminary experimental results are presented, which illustrate the method, showing the feasibility of character recognition in the context of eye writing. We then show experimentally how a model of the unknown character can be used to detect trajectories that are likely to be new symbols, and how disability assessment can be performed by opportunistically observing characteristics of fine motor control, as letter are being traced. Experimental analyses also help identify specificities of eye writing, as compared to handwriting, and the resulting technical challenges.

A Bayesian computational model for online character recognition and disability assessment during cursive eye writing

PubMed Central

Diard, Julien; Rynik, Vincent; Lorenceau, Jean

2013-01-01

This research involves a novel apparatus, in which the user is presented with an illusion inducing visual stimulus. The user perceives illusory movement that can be followed by the eye, so that smooth pursuit eye movements can be sustained in arbitrary directions. Thus, free-flow trajectories of any shape can be traced. In other words, coupled with an eye-tracking device, this apparatus enables “eye writing,” which appears to be an original object of study. We adapt a previous model of reading and writing to this context. We describe a probabilistic model called the Bayesian Action-Perception for Eye On-Line model (BAP-EOL). It encodes probabilistic knowledge about isolated letter trajectories, their size, high-frequency components of the produced trajectory, and pupil diameter. We show how Bayesian inference, in this single model, can be used to solve several tasks, like letter recognition and novelty detection (i.e., recognizing when a presented character is not part of the learned database). We are interested in the potential use of the eye writing apparatus by motor impaired patients: the final task we solve by Bayesian inference is disability assessment (i.e., measuring and tracking the evolution of motor characteristics of produced trajectories). Preliminary experimental results are presented, which illustrate the method, showing the feasibility of character recognition in the context of eye writing. We then show experimentally how a model of the unknown character can be used to detect trajectories that are likely to be new symbols, and how disability assessment can be performed by opportunistically observing characteristics of fine motor control, as letter are being traced. Experimental analyses also help identify specificities of eye writing, as compared to handwriting, and the resulting technical challenges. PMID:24273525

Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of “working distributions” to facilitate—or shorten—the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a “working” distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different “working” distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

A tutorial on Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of mixed binary-continuous outcomes with missing treatment effects.

PubMed

Gajic-Veljanoski, Olga; Cheung, Angela M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Tomlinson, George

2016-05-30

Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (BVMA) is a method of data synthesis that accounts for treatment effects measured on two outcomes. BVMA gives more precise estimates of the population mean and predicted values than two univariate random-effects meta-analyses (UVMAs). BVMA also addresses bias from incomplete reporting of outcomes. A few tutorials have covered technical details of BVMA of categorical or continuous outcomes. Limited guidance is available on how to analyze datasets that include trials with mixed continuous-binary outcomes where treatment effects on one outcome or the other are not reported. Given the advantages of Bayesian BVMA for handling missing outcomes, we present a tutorial for Bayesian BVMA of incompletely reported treatment effects on mixed bivariate outcomes. This step-by-step approach can serve as a model for our intended audience, the methodologist familiar with Bayesian meta-analysis, looking for practical advice on fitting bivariate models. To facilitate application of the proposed methods, we include our WinBUGS code. As an example, we use aggregate-level data from published trials to demonstrate the estimation of the effects of vitamin K and bisphosphonates on two correlated bone outcomes, fracture, and bone mineral density. We present datasets where reporting of the pairs of treatment effects on both outcomes was 'partially' complete (i.e., pairs completely reported in some trials), and we outline steps for modeling the incompletely reported data. To assess what is gained from the additional work required by BVMA, we compare the resulting estimates to those from separate UVMAs. We discuss methodological findings and make four recommendations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding interactions in the adsorption of gaseous organic compounds to indoor materials.

PubMed

Ongwandee, Maneerat; Chatsuvan, Thabtim; Suksawas Na Ayudhya, Wichitsawat; Morris, John

2017-02-01

We studied adsorption of organic compounds to a wide range of indoor materials, including plastics, gypsum board, carpet, and many others, under various relative humidity conditions by applying a conceptual model of the free energy of interfacial interactions of both van der Waals and Lewis acid-base (e-donor/acceptor) types. Data used for the analyses were partitioning coefficients of adsorbates between surface and gas phase obtained from three sources: our sorption experiments and two other published studies. Target organic compounds included apolars, monopolars, and bipolars. We established correlations of partitioning coefficients of adsorbates for a considered surface with the corresponding hexadecane/air partitioning coefficients of the adsorbates which are used as representative of a van der Waals descriptor instead of vapor pressure. The logarithmic adsorption coefficients of the apolars and weak bases, e.g., aliphatics and aromatics, to indoor materials linearly correlates well with the logarithmic hexadecane/air partitioning coefficients regardless of the surface polarity. The surface polarity in terms of e-donor/acceptor interactions becomes important for adsorption of the strong bases and bipolars, e.g., amines, phenols, and alcohols, to unpainted gypsum board. Under dry or humid conditions, the adsorption to flat plastic materials still linearly correlates well with the van der Waals interactions of the adsorbates, but no correlations were observed for the adsorption to fleecy or plush materials, e.g., carpet. Adsorption of highly bipolar compounds, e.g., phenol and isopropanol, is strongly affected by humidity, attributed to Lewis acid-base interactions with modified surfaces.

Theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and mortality in observational data.

PubMed

Akushevich, I; Yashkin, A P; Kravchenko, J; Fang, F; Arbeev, K; Sloan, F; Yashin, A I

2017-04-01

In this study, we present a new theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and incidence-based mortality and demonstrate how this theory practically works for analyses of Medicare data. In the theory, the prevalence of a disease and incidence-based mortality are modeled in terms of disease incidence and survival after diagnosis supplemented by information on disease prevalence at the initial age and year available in a dataset. Partitioning of the trends of prevalence and mortality is calculated with minimal assumptions. The resulting expressions for the components of the trends are given by continuous functions of data. The estimator is consistent and stable. The developed methodology is applied for data on type 2 diabetes using individual records from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries age 65+. Numerical estimates show excellent concordance between empirical estimates and theoretical predictions. Evaluated partitioning model showed that both prevalence and mortality increase with time. The primary driving factors of the observed prevalence increase are improved survival and increased prevalence at age 65. The increase in diabetes-related mortality is driven by increased prevalence and unobserved trends in time-periods and age-groups outside of the range of the data used in the study. Finally, the properties of the new estimator, possible statistical and systematical uncertainties, and future practical applications of this methodology in epidemiology, demography, public health and health forecasting are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysing surface energy balance closure and partitioning over a semi-arid savanna FLUXNET site in Skukuza, Kruger National Park, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majozi, Nobuhle P.; Mannaerts, Chris M.; Ramoelo, Abel; Mathieu, Renaud; Nickless, Alecia; Verhoef, Wouter

2017-07-01

Flux towers provide essential terrestrial climate, water, and radiation budget information needed for environmental monitoring and evaluation of climate change impacts on ecosystems and society in general. They are also intended for calibration and validation of satellite-based Earth observation and monitoring efforts, such as assessment of evapotranspiration from land and vegetation surfaces using surface energy balance approaches. In this paper, 15 years of Skukuza eddy covariance data, i.e. from 2000 to 2014, were analysed for surface energy balance closure (EBC) and partitioning. The surface energy balance closure was evaluated using the ordinary least squares regression (OLS) of turbulent energy fluxes (sensible (H) and latent heat (LE)) against available energy (net radiation (Rn) less soil heat (G)), and the energy balance ratio (EBR). Partitioning of the surface energy during the wet and dry seasons was also investigated, as well as how it is affected by atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and net radiation. After filtering years with low-quality data (2004-2008), our results show an overall mean EBR of 0.93. Seasonal variations of EBR also showed the wet season with 1.17 and spring (1.02) being closest to unity, with the dry season (0.70) having the highest imbalance. Nocturnal surface energy closure was very low at 0.26, and this was linked to low friction velocity during night-time, with results showing an increase in closure with increase in friction velocity. The energy partition analysis showed that sensible heat flux is the dominant portion of net radiation, especially between March and October, followed by latent heat flux, and lastly the soil heat flux, and during the wet season where latent heat flux dominated sensible heat flux. An increase in net radiation was characterized by an increase in both LE and H, with LE showing a higher rate of increase than H in the wet season, and the reverse happening during the dry season. An increase in VPD is correlated with a decrease in LE and increase in H during the wet season, and an increase in both fluxes during the dry season.

Parallelization Issues and Particle-In Codes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elster, Anne Cathrine

1994-01-01

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." Albert Einstein. The field of parallel scientific computing has concentrated on parallelization of individual modules such as matrix solvers and factorizers. However, many applications involve several interacting modules. Our analyses of a particle-in-cell code modeling charged particles in an electric field, show that these accompanying dependencies affect data partitioning and lead to new parallelization strategies concerning processor, memory and cache utilization. Our test-bed, a KSR1, is a distributed memory machine with a globally shared addressing space. However, most of the new methods presented hold generally for hierarchical and/or distributed memory systems. We introduce a novel approach that uses dual pointers on the local particle arrays to keep the particle locations automatically partially sorted. Complexity and performance analyses with accompanying KSR benchmarks, have been included for both this scheme and for the traditional replicated grids approach. The latter approach maintains load-balance with respect to particles. However, our results demonstrate it fails to scale properly for problems with large grids (say, greater than 128-by-128) running on as few as 15 KSR nodes, since the extra storage and computation time associated with adding the grid copies, becomes significant. Our grid partitioning scheme, although harder to implement, does not need to replicate the whole grid. Consequently, it scales well for large problems on highly parallel systems. It may, however, require load balancing schemes for non-uniform particle distributions. Our dual pointer approach may facilitate this through dynamically partitioned grids. We also introduce hierarchical data structures that store neighboring grid-points within the same cache -line by reordering the grid indexing. This alignment produces a 25% savings in cache-hits for a 4-by-4 cache. A consideration of the input data's effect on the simulation may lead to further improvements. For example, in the case of mean particle drift, it is often advantageous to partition the grid primarily along the direction of the drift. The particle-in-cell codes for this study were tested using physical parameters, which lead to predictable phenomena including plasma oscillations and two-stream instabilities. An overview of the most central references related to parallel particle codes is also given.

What We Have Learned About the Existing Trace Element Partitioning data During the Population Phase of traceDs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, R. L.; Ghiorso, M. S.; Trischman, T.

2015-12-01

The database traceDs is designed to provide a transparent and accessible resource of experimental partitioning data. It now includes ~ 90% of all the experimental trace element partitioning data (~4000 experiments) produced over the past 45 years, and is accessible through a web based interface (using the portal lepr.ofm-research.org). We set a minimum standard for inclusion, with the threshold criteria being the inclusion of: Experimental conditions (temperature, pressure, device, container, time, etc.) Major element composition of the phases Trace element analyses of the phases Data sources that did not report these minimum components were not included. The rationale for not including such data is that the degree of equilibration is unknown, and more important, no rigorous approach to modeling the behavior of trace elements is possible without knowledge of composition of the phases, and the temperature and pressure of formation/equilibration. The data are stored using a schema derived from that of the Library of Experimental Phase Relations (LEPR), modified to account for additional metadata, and restructured to permit multiple analytical entries for various element/technique/standard combinations. In the process of populating the database, we have learned a number of things about the existing published experimental partitioning data. Most important are: ~ 20% of the papers do not satisfy one or more of the threshold criteria. The standard format for presenting data is the average. This was developed as the standard during the time where there were space constraints for publication in spite of fact that all the information can now be published as electronic supplements. The uncertainties that are published with the compositional data are often not adequately explained (e.g. 1 or 2 sigma, standard deviation of the average, etc.). We propose a new set of publication standards for experimental data that include the minimum criteria described above, the publication of all analyses with error based on peak count rates and background, plus information on the structural state of the mineral (e.g. orthopyroxene vs. pigeonite).

Data-driven reduced order models for effective yield strength and partitioning of strain in multiphase materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latypov, Marat I.; Kalidindi, Surya R.

2017-10-01

There is a critical need for the development and verification of practically useful multiscale modeling strategies for simulating the mechanical response of multiphase metallic materials with heterogeneous microstructures. In this contribution, we present data-driven reduced order models for effective yield strength and strain partitioning in such microstructures. These models are built employing the recently developed framework of Materials Knowledge Systems that employ 2-point spatial correlations (or 2-point statistics) for the quantification of the heterostructures and principal component analyses for their low-dimensional representation. The models are calibrated to a large collection of finite element (FE) results obtained for a diverse range of microstructures with various sizes, shapes, and volume fractions of the phases. The performance of the models is evaluated by comparing the predictions of yield strength and strain partitioning in two-phase materials with the corresponding predictions from a classical self-consistent model as well as results of full-field FE simulations. The reduced-order models developed in this work show an excellent combination of accuracy and computational efficiency, and therefore present an important advance towards computationally efficient microstructure-sensitive multiscale modeling frameworks.

Influence of meteorological variables on rainfall partitioning for deciduous and coniferous tree species in urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Šraj, Mojca

2018-03-01

Rainfall partitioning is an important part of the ecohydrological cycle, influenced by numerous variables. Rainfall partitioning for pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and birch (Betula pendula Roth.) trees was measured from January 2014 to June 2017 in an urban area of Ljubljana, Slovenia. 180 events from more than three years of observations were analyzed, focusing on 13 meteorological variables, including the number of raindrops, their diameter, and velocity. Regression tree and boosted regression tree analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of the variables on rainfall interception loss, throughfall, and stemflow in different phenoseasons. The amount of rainfall was recognized as the most influential variable, followed by rainfall intensity and the number of raindrops. Higher rainfall amount, intensity, and the number of drops decreased percentage of rainfall interception loss. Rainfall amount and intensity were the most influential on interception loss by birch and pine trees during the leafed and leafless periods, respectively. Lower wind speed was found to increase throughfall, whereas wind direction had no significant influence. Consideration of drop size spectrum properties proved to be important, since the number of drops, drop diameter, and median volume diameter were often recognized as important influential variables.

The swiss army knife of job submission tools: grid-control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stober, F.; Fischer, M.; Schleper, P.; Stadie, H.; Garbers, C.; Lange, J.; Kovalchuk, N.

2017-10-01

grid-control is a lightweight and highly portable open source submission tool that supports all common workflows in high energy physics (HEP). It has been used by a sizeable number of HEP analyses to process tasks that sometimes consist of up to 100k jobs. grid-control is built around a powerful plugin and configuration system, that allows users to easily specify all aspects of the desired workflow. Job submission to a wide range of local or remote batch systems or grid middleware is supported. Tasks can be conveniently specified through the parameter space that will be processed, which can consist of any number of variables and data sources with complex dependencies on each other. Dataset information is processed through a configurable pipeline of dataset filters, partition plugins and partition filters. The partition plugins can take the number of files, size of the work units, metadata or combinations thereof into account. All changes to the input datasets or variables are propagated through the processing pipeline and can transparently trigger adjustments to the parameter space and the job submission. While the core functionality is completely experiment independent, full integration with the CMS computing environment is provided by a small set of plugins.

Dynamic connectivity regression: Determining state-related changes in brain connectivity

PubMed Central

Cribben, Ivor; Haraldsdottir, Ragnheidur; Atlas, Lauren Y.; Wager, Tor D.; Lindquist, Martin A.

2014-01-01

Most statistical analyses of fMRI data assume that the nature, timing and duration of the psychological processes being studied are known. However, often it is hard to specify this information a priori. In this work we introduce a data-driven technique for partitioning the experimental time course into distinct temporal intervals with different multivariate functional connectivity patterns between a set of regions of interest (ROIs). The technique, called Dynamic Connectivity Regression (DCR), detects temporal change points in functional connectivity and estimates a graph, or set of relationships between ROIs, for data in the temporal partition that falls between pairs of change points. Hence, DCR allows for estimation of both the time of change in connectivity and the connectivity graph for each partition, without requiring prior knowledge of the nature of the experimental design. Permutation and bootstrapping methods are used to perform inference on the change points. The method is applied to various simulated data sets as well as to an fMRI data set from a study (N=26) of a state anxiety induction using a socially evaluative threat challenge. The results illustrate the method’s ability to observe how the networks between different brain regions changed with subjects’ emotional state. PMID:22484408

The Use and Interpretation of Sodium Concentrations in Casual (Spot) Urine Collections for Population Surveillance and Partitioning of Dietary Iodine Intake Sources

PubMed Central

Conkle, Joel; van der Haar, Frits

2016-01-01

In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) called for joint surveillance of population salt and iodine intakes using urinary analysis. 24-h urine collection is considered the gold standard for salt intake assessment, but there is an emerging consensus that casual urine sampling can provide comparable information for population-level surveillance. Our review covers the use of the urinary sodium concentration (UNaC) and the urinary iodine concentration (UIC) from casual urine samples to estimate salt intakes and to partition the sources of iodine intakes. We reviewed literature on 24-h urinary sodium excretion (UNaE) and UNaC and documented the use of UNaC for national salt intake monitoring. We combined information from our review of urinary sodium with evidence on urinary iodine to assess the appropriateness of partitioning methods currently being adapted for cross-sectional survey analyses. At least nine countries are using casual urine collection for surveillance of population salt intakes; all these countries used single samples. Time trend analyses indicate that single UNaC can be used for monitoring changes in mean salt intakes. However; single UNaC suffers the same limitation as single UNaE; i.e., an estimate of the proportion excess salt intake can be biased due to high individual variability. There is evidence, albeit limited, that repeat UNaC sampling has good agreement at the population level with repeat UNaE collections; thus permitting an unbiased estimate of the proportion of excess salt intake. High variability of UIC and UNaC in single urine samples may also bias the estimates of dietary iodine intake sources. Our review concludes that repeated collection, in a sub-sample of individuals, of casual UNaC data would provide an immediate practical approach for routine monitoring of salt intake, because it overcomes the bias in estimates of excess salt intake. Thus we recommend more survey research to expand the evidence-base on predicted-UNaE from repeat casual UNaC sampling. We also conclude that the methodology for partitioning the sources of iodine intake based on the combination of UIC and UNaC measurements in casual urine samples can be improved by repeat collections of casual data; which helps to reduce regression dilution bias. We recommend more survey research to determine the effect of regression dilution bias and circadian rhythms on the partitioning of dietary iodine intake sources. PMID:28025546

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art in Multidisciplinary Aeromechanical Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

monolithic formulations. In summary, for aerospace structures, partitioned formulations provide fundamental advantages over fully coupled ones, in addition...important frequencies of local analysis directly to global analysis using detailed modeling. Performed ju- diciously, based on a fundamental understanding of...in 2000 has com- prehensively described the problem, and reviewed the status of fundamental understanding, experimental data, and analytical

Signal Partitioning Algorithm for Highly Efficient Gaussian Mixture Modeling in Mass Spectrometry

PubMed Central

Polanski, Andrzej; Marczyk, Michal; Pietrowska, Monika; Widlak, Piotr; Polanska, Joanna

2015-01-01

Mixture - modeling of mass spectra is an approach with many potential applications including peak detection and quantification, smoothing, de-noising, feature extraction and spectral signal compression. However, existing algorithms do not allow for automated analyses of whole spectra. Therefore, despite highlighting potential advantages of mixture modeling of mass spectra of peptide/protein mixtures and some preliminary results presented in several papers, the mixture modeling approach was so far not developed to the stage enabling systematic comparisons with existing software packages for proteomic mass spectra analyses. In this paper we present an efficient algorithm for Gaussian mixture modeling of proteomic mass spectra of different types (e.g., MALDI-ToF profiling, MALDI-IMS). The main idea is automated partitioning of protein mass spectral signal into fragments. The obtained fragments are separately decomposed into Gaussian mixture models. The parameters of the mixture models of fragments are then aggregated to form the mixture model of the whole spectrum. We compare the elaborated algorithm to existing algorithms for peak detection and we demonstrate improvements of peak detection efficiency obtained by using Gaussian mixture modeling. We also show applications of the elaborated algorithm to real proteomic datasets of low and high resolution. PMID:26230717

Genetic Structure of First Nation Communities in the Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

Hughes, Cris E; Rogers, Mary P; Owings, Amanda C; Petzelt, Barbara; Mitchell, Joycelynn; Harry, Harold; Williams, Theresa; Goldberg, Dena; Labuda, Damian; Smith, David Glenn; Cybulski, Jerome S; Malhi, Ripan S

2016-10-01

This study presents genetic data for nine Native American populations from northern North America. Analyses of genetic variation focus on the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Using mitochondrial, Y chromosomal, and autosomal DNA variants, we aimed to more closely address the relationships of geography and language with present genetic diversity among the regional PNW Native American populations. Patterns of genetic diversity exhibited by the three genetic systems were consistent with our hypotheses: genetic variation was more strongly explained by geographic proximity than by linguistic structure. Our findings were corroborated through a variety on analytic approaches, with the unrooted trees for the three genetic systems consistently separating inland from coastal PNW populations. Furthermore, analyses of molecular variance support the trends exhibited by the unrooted trees, with geographic partitioning of PNW populations (F CT = 19.43%, p = 0.010 ± 0.009) accounting for over twice as much of the observed genetic variation as linguistic partitioning of the same populations (F CT = 9.15%, p = 0.193 ± 0.013). These findings demonstrate a consensus with previous PNW population studies examining the relationships of genome-wide variation, mitochondrial haplogroup frequencies, and skeletal morphology with geography and language.

Root-shoot growth responses during interspecific competition quantified using allometric modelling.

PubMed

Robinson, David; Davidson, Hazel; Trinder, Clare; Brooker, Rob

2010-12-01

Plant competition studies are restricted by the difficulty of quantifying root systems of competitors. Analyses are usually limited to above-ground traits. Here, a new approach to address this issue is reported. Root system weights of competing plants can be estimated from: shoot weights of competitors; combined root weights of competitors; and slopes (scaling exponents, α) and intercepts (allometric coefficients, β) of ln-regressions of root weight on shoot weight of isolated plants. If competition induces no change in root : shoot growth, α and β values of competing and isolated plants will be equal. Measured combined root weight of competitors will equal that estimated allometrically from measured shoot weights of each competing plant. Combined root weights can be partitioned directly among competitors. If, as will be more usual, competition changes relative root and shoot growth, the competitors' combined root weight will not equal that estimated allometrically and cannot be partitioned directly. However, if the isolated-plant α and β values are adjusted until the estimated combined root weight of competitors matches the measured combined root weight, the latter can be partitioned among competitors using their new α and β values. The approach is illustrated using two herbaceous species, Dactylis glomerata and Plantago lanceolata. Allometric modelling revealed a large and continuous increase in the root : shoot ratio by Dactylis, but not Plantago, during competition. This was associated with a superior whole-plant dry weight increase in Dactylis, which was ultimately 2·5-fold greater than that of Plantago. Whole-plant growth dominance of Dactylis over Plantago, as deduced from allometric modelling, occurred 14-24 d earlier than suggested by shoot data alone. Given reasonable assumptions, allometric modelling can analyse competitive interactions in any species mixture, and overcomes a long-standing problem in studies of competition.

IND - THE IND DECISION TREE PACKAGE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, W.

1994-01-01

A common approach to supervised classification and prediction in artificial intelligence and statistical pattern recognition is the use of decision trees. A tree is "grown" from data using a recursive partitioning algorithm to create a tree which has good prediction of classes on new data. Standard algorithms are CART (by Breiman Friedman, Olshen and Stone) and ID3 and its successor C4 (by Quinlan). As well as reimplementing parts of these algorithms and offering experimental control suites, IND also introduces Bayesian and MML methods and more sophisticated search in growing trees. These produce more accurate class probability estimates that are important in applications like diagnosis. IND is applicable to most data sets consisting of independent instances, each described by a fixed length vector of attribute values. An attribute value may be a number, one of a set of attribute specific symbols, or it may be omitted. One of the attributes is delegated the "target" and IND grows trees to predict the target. Prediction can then be done on new data or the decision tree printed out for inspection. IND provides a range of features and styles with convenience for the casual user as well as fine-tuning for the advanced user or those interested in research. IND can be operated in a CART-like mode (but without regression trees, surrogate splits or multivariate splits), and in a mode like the early version of C4. Advanced features allow more extensive search, interactive control and display of tree growing, and Bayesian and MML algorithms for tree pruning and smoothing. These often produce more accurate class probability estimates at the leaves. IND also comes with a comprehensive experimental control suite. IND consists of four basic kinds of routines: data manipulation routines, tree generation routines, tree testing routines, and tree display routines. The data manipulation routines are used to partition a single large data set into smaller training and test sets. The generation routines are used to build classifiers. The test routines are used to evaluate classifiers and to classify data using a classifier. And the display routines are used to display classifiers in various formats. IND is written in C-language for Sun4 series computers. It consists of several programs with controlling shell scripts. Extensive UNIX man entries are included. IND is designed to be used on any UNIX system, although it has only been thoroughly tested on SUN platforms. The standard distribution medium for IND is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. An electronic copy of the documentation in PostScript format is included on the distribution medium. IND was developed in 1992.

Energy partitioning and thyroid hormone levels during Salmonella enteritidis infections in pullets with high or low residual feed intake.

PubMed

Van Eerden, E; Van Den Brand, H; Heetkamp, M J W; Decuypere, E; Kemp, B

2006-10-01

This experiment was conducted to investigate whether feed efficiency, as measured by residual feed intake as a phenotypic trait, affects energy partitioning in pullets that have received Salmonella inoculation as an immune challenge. In each of 8 trials, energy partitioning was measured during 5 wk in 15-wk-old efficient (R-) and nonefficient (R+) pullets, which were housed per efficiency group in 2 identical climate respiration chambers. After 1 wk of adaptation, the pullets in 4 trials were orally inoculated with 10(8) cfu of Salmonella enteritidis; pullets in the remaining trials were not inoculated and served as controls. Heat production was calculated from continuous recordings of O(2) consumption and CO(2) production. Energy and N partitioning were recorded on a weekly basis. Blood samples for analyses on thyroid hormones were taken at 16, 17, and 19 wk of age. There were no interactions between efficiency type and Salmonella treatment or Salmonella treatment effects in energy partitioning, except for a short-term increase in heat production in inoculated pullets. Nonefficient pullets had higher gross energy and ME intake, higher estimated ME for maintenance, lower ME:gross energy ratio, and higher total heat production and nonactivity-related heat production compared with R- pullets. Triiodothyronine levels in R+ pullets were higher at 16 and 17 wk but were lower at 19 wk of age compared with R- pullets. Thyroxine levels were higher in R- at 16 wk and showed interactions between efficiency type and Salmonella treatment at 17 and 19 wk of age. Body weights and spleen weights did not differ between efficiency groups. Nonefficient pullets had higher heart, liver, and ovary weights and more large yellow follicles than R- pullets. There were no Salmonella effects on body and organ weights. We conclude that R+ pullets have a faster running energy metabolism and that they put more resources into organ development than R- pullets. Inoculation with Salmonella has a short-term effect on nonactivity-related heat production but does not affect energy partitioning, regardless of efficiency type.

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…