Understanding the Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Removal to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, V.; Tett, S. F.; Brander, M.

2017-12-01

The current Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement suggest exceeding the emissions budgets corresponding to the below 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets. To address this the future application of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is proposed to recapture excess emissions at a later time, so keeping the total net emissions within budget. This assumes that the climate change impact of CO2 emitted now can be fully compensated by a matched CO2 removal in the future. However, the impacts from this pathway of emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture may differ from those resulting from a pathway where emissions are held within budget with no temporary overshoot. These pathway dependent impacts could give rise to different climatic and societal futures despite the total net emissions being the same. Using a low resolution fully coupled Earth System Model with an interactive carbon cycle, we present an investigation into the pathway dependence of climate change impacts and how these relate to the scale and duration of the emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture. From this we discuss the effectiveness of CDR in avoiding climate change impacts relative to more immediate emissions reductions. We consider how this relative effectiveness might be reflected in GHG accounting methods and national GHG accounts, and explore the implications for Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, where holding temperatures to the targets is recognised to "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change".

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

PubMed Central

Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C.; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas—ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways. PMID:29020041

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.

PubMed

Purse, Bethan V; Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

The National Climate Assessment: A Treasure Trove for Education, Communications and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Connolly, R.; Niepold, F., III; Poppleton, K. L. I.; Cloyd, E.; Ledley, T. S.

2014-12-01

Required by Congress under the Global Change Act of 1990 to inform the nation on the findings of current climate research, the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), released in May 2014, is a rich resource for climate change education, communications and outreach (ECO). Using a website design with mobile applications in mind, NCA takes advantage of mobile learning technology which is revolutionizing how, when and where learning occurs. In an effort to maximize the "teachable moments" inherent in the assessment, a community of experts from the National Center for Science Education and the CLEAN Network, working under the auspices of the National Climate Assessment Network (NCAnet) Education Affinity Group, have developed a series of NCA Learning Pathways that match key NCA messages and resources with reviewed educational materials and trusted online information sources, thereby adding pedagogical depth to the assessment. The NCA Learning Pathways, which focus on the regional chapters of the report, are designed make climate change science more local, human, relevant and, if properly framed by educators and communicators, hopeful for learners. This paper touches on the challenges and opportunities of infusing climate education, communications and outreach into curriculum and society, and details the development and content of NCA Learning Pathways, which are available online through NOAA's Climate.gov website: http://www.climate.gov/teaching

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2016-01-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season. PMID:28943813

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2017-05-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.

Future Water Scarcity and Potential Effects on Food Production under Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Yin, Y. Y.; Liu, X.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River Basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. In this study, we assess water scarcity under climate change and various socio-economic pathways with an emphasis on the impact of water shortages on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are projected under the new developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The renewable water supply is estimated from the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. The agricultural water use is assumed to have the lowest priority of all water consumers when water shortage occurs. The results show that the water demands in domestic and industrial sectors would grow rapidly. As more water resources would be occupied by domestic and industrial sectors, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture which would lead to more than a reduction in food production under various socio-economic pathways. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met.

Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices

PubMed Central

Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

2016-01-01

Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents’ attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals’ demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several “upstream” climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies. PMID:26729883

Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

2016-01-19

Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

2014-12-01

Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

Effects of differential habitat warming on complex communities.

PubMed

Tunney, Tyler D; McCann, Kevin S; Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J

2014-06-03

Food webs unfold across a mosaic of micro and macro habitats, with each habitat coupled by mobile consumers that behave in response to local environmental conditions. Despite this fundamental characteristic of nature, research on how climate change will affect whole ecosystems has overlooked (i) that climate warming will generally affect habitats differently and (ii) that mobile consumers may respond to this differential change in a manner that may fundamentally alter the energy pathways that sustain ecosystems. This reasoning suggests a powerful, but largely unexplored, avenue for studying the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Here, we use lake ecosystems to show that predictable behavioral adjustments to local temperature differentials govern a fundamental structural shift across 54 food webs. Data show that the trophic pathways from basal resources to a cold-adapted predator shift toward greater reliance on a cold-water refuge habitat, and food chain length increases, as air temperatures rise. Notably, cold-adapted predator behavior may substantially drive this decoupling effect across the climatic range in our study independent of warmer-adapted species responses (for example, changes in near-shore species abundance and predator absence). Such modifications reflect a flexible food web architecture that requires more attention from climate change research. The trophic pathway restructuring documented here is expected to alter biomass accumulation, through the regulation of energy fluxes to predators, and thus potentially threatens ecosystem sustainability in times of rapid environmental change.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

Avoiding dangerous climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic

2006-02-15

In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41more » papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.« less

Climate change, wine, and conservation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

2013-04-23

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

Climate change, wine, and conservation

PubMed Central

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

Global and local environmental changes as drivers of Buruli ulcer emergence.

PubMed

Combe, Marine; Velvin, Camilla Jensen; Morris, Aaron; Garchitorena, Andres; Carolan, Kevin; Sanhueza, Daniel; Roche, Benjamin; Couppié, Pierre; Guégan, Jean-François; Gozlan, Rodolphe Elie

2017-04-26

Many emerging infectious diseases are caused by generalist pathogens that infect and transmit via multiple host species with multiple dissemination routes, thus confounding the understanding of pathogen transmission pathways from wildlife reservoirs to humans. The emergence of these pathogens in human populations has frequently been associated with global changes, such as socio-economic, climate or biodiversity modifications, by allowing generalist pathogens to invade and persist in new ecological niches, infect new host species, and thus change the nature of transmission pathways. Using the case of Buruli ulcer disease, we review how land-use changes, climatic patterns and biodiversity alterations contribute to disease emergence in many parts of the world. Here we clearly show that Mycobacterium ulcerans is an environmental pathogen characterized by multi-host transmission dynamics and that its infectious pathways to humans rely on the local effects of global environmental changes. We show that the interplay between habitat changes (for example, deforestation and agricultural land-use changes) and climatic patterns (for example, rainfall events), applied in a local context, can lead to abiotic environmental changes and functional changes in local biodiversity that favor the pathogen's prevalence in the environment and may explain disease emergence.

Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; O'Connor, Fiona M

2017-12-05

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O 3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O 3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O 3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH 4 ) abundances lead to increases in background O 3 that offset the O 3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O 3 - termed the O 3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O 3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O 3 distribution, such as daily maximum O 3 . Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O 3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O 3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O 3 -related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM 2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O 3 -respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH 4 leads to global and European excess O 3 -respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O 3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

PubMed Central

Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; John T. Abatzoglou; E. Natasha Stavros; Narasimhan K. Larkin

2014-01-01

Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF >= 50,000 ac~20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p

The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Monaghan, A J; Sampson, K M; Steinhoff, D F; Ernst, K C; Ebi, K L; Jones, B; Hayden, M H

2018-02-01

The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue and chikungunya, two globally-important vector-borne diseases. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti . Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061-2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950-2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km 2 is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8% (RCP4.5) to 13% (RCP8.5) by 2061-2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298-460 M (8-12%) by 2061-2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805-5084 M (127-134%) for SSP3 and 2232-2483 M (59-65%) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change.

Public health impacts of climate change in Nepal.

PubMed

Joshi, H D; Dhimal, B; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2011-04-01

Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Scientists have reached in a consensus that climate change is happening. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and therefore climate change. Climate change may directly or indirectly affect human health through a range of pathways related to temperature and precipitation. The aim of this article is to share knowledge on how climate change can affect public health in Nepal based on scientific evidence from global studies and experience gained locally. In this review attempt has been made to critically analyze the scientific studies as well as policy documents of Nepalese Government and shed light on public health impact of climate change in the context of Nepal. Detailed scientific study is recommended to discern impact of climate change on public health problems in Nepal.

On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

Heat-related mortality in a warming climate: projections for 12 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Bader, Daniel A; Anderson, G Brooke; Horton, Radley M; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L

2014-10-31

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

2014-01-01

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and demand systems. As well, endogenous adaptation in the agricultural sector--mostly through inter-regional shifting in production and changes in trade patterns--limits the shock of climate impacts to consumers. Global average climate impacts on wheat yields for the four emissions scenarios, using base-year weights (asterisks) and using the endogenous land allocations in GCAM (filled diamonds)

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this level of decarbonisation. In extreme condition (positive correlation between the 3 issues discussed) the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL creates pathways requiring additional negative emission technologies at the end of this century to keep temperature change well below 2°C.

Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger

PubMed Central

Parry, Martin; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Livermore, Matthew

2005-01-01

This paper reports the results of a series of research projects which have aimed to evaluate the implications of climate change for food production and risk of hunger. There are three sets of results: (a) for IS92a (previously described as a ‘business-as-usual’ climate scenario); (b) for stabilization scenarios at 550 and 750 ppm and (c) for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The main conclusions are: (i) the region of greatest risk is Africa; (ii) stabilization at 750 ppm avoids some but not most of the risk, while stabilization at 550 ppm avoids most of the risk and (iii) the impact of climate change on risk of hunger is influenced greatly by pathways of development. For example, a SRES B2 development pathway is characterized by much lower levels of risk than A2; and this is largely explained by differing levels of income and technology not by differing amounts of climate forcing. PMID:16433098

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO 2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO 2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surfacemore » air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO 2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO 2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.« less

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Moore, J. K.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mahowald, N. M.; Doney, S. C.

2015-06-01

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

2013-08-01

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

Robust changes in the socio-climate risk over CONUS by mid 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Alifa, M.; Pagán, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Preston, B. L.

2017-12-01

Using high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes, we investigate impacts of climate change on natural and human systems across the CONUS. Climate projections are based a hybrid downscaling approach where a combination of regional and hydrological models are used to downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to 4km horizontal grid spacing for 41 years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Should emissions continue to rise, climatic changes will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle over CONUS through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. Our results show robust changes in the occurrence of severe weather conditions and in the likelihood of ice, freezing rain and snowstorms that may have disruptive impact on large human population across the U.S. More summer like conditions will also drive increase in cooling demands and a net increase in the energy consumption over many regions. We further use an integrated vulnerability index that combines human exposure to different climate extremes (hot, cold, wet and dry) and changes in socioeconomic pathways (due to changes in population and income levels), to reveal that future exposure to potentially damaging climatic conditions will likely increase manifold for population living in major urban centers in California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Northeast. With the current trajectory of emissions, these results warrant that a large human population across the U.S. may feel the impacts of climate change within its lifespan.

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (clean) Pathway: Integrating Science and Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Buhr, S.; Manduca, C. A.; Fox, S.; Niepold, F.; Gold, A. U.

2010-12-01

Changes in the climate system are underway, largely due to human impacts, and it is essential that citizens understand what these changes are, what is causing them, and the potential implications in order for them to make responsible decisions for themselves, their communities and society. The Climate Literacy Network (CLN) comprised of a broad spectrum of ~200 stakeholders, has virtual meetings weekly (since January 2008) to provide a forum to share information and leverage efforts to address the complex issues involved in making climate and energy literacy real in formal and informal educational contexts as well as for all citizens. The discussions of the CLN have led to 1) coordinated efforts to support the implementation of the Climate Literacy Essential Principles of Climate Science (CLEP, http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/Literacy/), 2) the establishment of the CLEAN Pathway collection (http://cleanet.org) of reviewed resources that directly support the CLEP, and 3) the development of a model for CLEAN-Regional Networks that facilitate increasing climate and energy literacy at the local level. In this presentation we will describe the ongoing activities of the CLN and provide an overview of the new and recently launched CLEAN Pathway collection. The CLEAN Pathway is a project to steward an on-line collection of digital teaching materials that directly address the CLEP as well as a set of energy awareness principles. All teaching materials are aligned with the NAAEE Guidelines for Excellence in Environmental Education, the AAAS Project 2061 Benchmarks for Science Literacy, and the National Science Education Standards. With a goal of vetting ~500 educational materials at the 6-16 grade levels, we have just completed our first round of identifying, reviewing and annotating ~100 excellent teaching activities. We will demonstrate the current capabilities of the CLEAN Pathway portal, describe plans for additional functionality, and provide a vision for others to leverage this resource to facilitate a deeper understanding of the science enabling the development of responsible solutions to the impacts of climate change on society and the ecosystems that sustain us.

Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Liu, Xingcai; Zhang, Xuejun

2017-02-01

Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development. In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity beginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable water resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2-11 % reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

The Role of Science in Advising the Decision Making Process: A Pathway for Building Effective Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Mexico at the Local Level.

PubMed

Barraza, Roberto; Velazquez-Angulo, Gilberto; Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Romero-González, Jaime; Huertas-Cardozo, José Ignacio

2016-04-27

This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico.

Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action.

PubMed

Costello, Anthony; Maslin, Mark; Montgomery, Hugh; Johnson, Anne M; Ekins, Paul

2011-05-13

The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late. © 2011 Royal Society

Projected changes of the southwest Australian wave climate under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hemer, Mark A.

2017-09-01

Incident wave energy flux is responsible for sediment transport and coastal erosion in wave-dominated regions such as the southwestern Australian (SWA) coastal zone. To evaluate future wave climates under increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, past studies have forced global wave simulations with wind data sourced from global climate model (GCM) simulations. However, due to the generally coarse spatial resolution of global climate and wave simulations, the effects of changing offshore wave conditions and sea level rise on the nearshore wave climate are still relatively unknown. To address this gap of knowledge, we investigated the projected SWA offshore, shelf, and nearshore wave climate under two potential future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This was achieved by downscaling an ensemble of global wave simulations, forced with winds from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), into two regional domains, using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The wave climate is modeled for a historical 20-year time slice (1986-2005) and a projected future 20-year time-slice (2081-2100) for both scenarios. Furthermore, we compare these scenarios to the effects of considering sea-level rise (SLR) alone (stationary wave climate), and to the effects of combined SLR and projected wind-wave change. Results indicated that the SWA shelf and nearshore wave climate is more sensitive to changes in offshore mean wave direction than offshore wave heights. Nearshore, wave energy flux was projected to increase by ∼10% in exposed areas and decrease by ∼10% in sheltered areas under both climate scenarios due to a change in wave directions, compared to an overall increase of 2-4% in offshore wave heights. With SLR, the annual mean wave energy flux was projected to increase by up to 20% in shallow water (< 30 m) as a result of decreased wave dissipation. In winter months, the longshore wave energy flux, which is responsible for littoral drift, is expected to increase by up to 39% (62%) under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration pathway with SLR. The study highlights the importance of using high-resolution wave simulations to evaluate future regional wave climates, since the coastal wave climate is more responsive to changes in wave direction and sea level than offshore wave heights.

Taxonomic and functional diversity provides insight into microbial pathways and stress responses in the saline Qinghai Lake, China.

PubMed

Huang, Qiuyuan; Briggs, Brandon R; Dong, Hailiang; Jiang, Hongchen; Wu, Geng; Edwardson, Christian; De Vlaminck, Iwijn; Quake, Stephen

2014-01-01

Microbe-mediated biogeochemical cycles contribute to the global climate system and have sensitive responses and feedbacks to environmental stress caused by climate change. Yet, little is known about the effects of microbial biodiversity (i.e., taxonmic and functional diversity) on biogeochemical cycles in ecosytems that are highly sensitive to climate change. One such sensitive ecosystem is Qinghai Lake, a high-elevation (3196 m) saline (1.4%) lake located on the Tibetan Plateau, China. This study provides baseline information on the microbial taxonomic and functional diversity as well as the associated stress response genes. Illumina metagenomic and metatranscriptomic datasets were generated from lake water samples collected at two sites (B and E). Autotrophic Cyanobacteria dominated the DNA samples, while heterotrophic Proteobacteria dominated the RNA samples at both sites. Photoheterotrophic Loktanella was also present at both sites. Photosystem II was the most active pathway at site B; while, oxidative phosphorylation was most active at site E. Organisms that expressed photosystem II or oxidative phosphorylation also expressed genes involved in photoprotection and oxidative stress, respectively. Assimilatory pathways associated with the nitrogen cycle were dominant at both sites. Results also indicate a positive relationship between functional diversity and the number of stress response genes. This study provides insight into the stress resilience of microbial metabolic pathways supported by greater taxonomic diversity, which may affect the microbial community response to climate change.

Taxonomic and Functional Diversity Provides Insight into Microbial Pathways and Stress Responses in the Saline Qinghai Lake, China

PubMed Central

Dong, Hailiang; Jiang, Hongchen; Wu, Geng; Edwardson, Christian; De Vlaminck, Iwijn; Quake, Stephen

2014-01-01

Microbe-mediated biogeochemical cycles contribute to the global climate system and have sensitive responses and feedbacks to environmental stress caused by climate change. Yet, little is known about the effects of microbial biodiversity (i.e., taxonmic and functional diversity) on biogeochemical cycles in ecosytems that are highly sensitive to climate change. One such sensitive ecosystem is Qinghai Lake, a high-elevation (3196 m) saline (1.4%) lake located on the Tibetan Plateau, China. This study provides baseline information on the microbial taxonomic and functional diversity as well as the associated stress response genes. Illumina metagenomic and metatranscriptomic datasets were generated from lake water samples collected at two sites (B and E). Autotrophic Cyanobacteria dominated the DNA samples, while heterotrophic Proteobacteria dominated the RNA samples at both sites. Photoheterotrophic Loktanella was also present at both sites. Photosystem II was the most active pathway at site B; while, oxidative phosphorylation was most active at site E. Organisms that expressed photosystem II or oxidative phosphorylation also expressed genes involved in photoprotection and oxidative stress, respectively. Assimilatory pathways associated with the nitrogen cycle were dominant at both sites. Results also indicate a positive relationship between functional diversity and the number of stress response genes. This study provides insight into the stress resilience of microbial metabolic pathways supported by greater taxonomic diversity, which may affect the microbial community response to climate change. PMID:25365331

Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

2013-04-01

While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.

A Pathway-based Approach to Predicting Interactions between Chemical and Non-chemical Stressors: Applications to Global Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

A variety of environmental variables influenced by global climate change (GCC) can directly or indirectly affect the health of organisms. These variables may include temperature, salinity, pH, and penetration of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in aquatic environments, and water shor...

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically in regards to the level of robustness and flexibility in the selected strategy. This work will equip practitioners and decision makers with an example of a structured process for decision making under climate uncertainty that can be scaled as needed to the problem at hand. This presentation builds further on another submitted abstract "Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning" by Jeuken et al.

Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Caldeira, Ken; Keith, David W

2014-12-28

Solar geoengineering has been suggested as a tool that might reduce damage from anthropogenic climate change. Analysis often assumes that geoengineering would be used to maintain a constant global mean temperature. Under this scenario, geoengineering would be required either indefinitely (on societal time scales) or until atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sufficiently reduced. Impacts of climate change, however, are related to the rate of change as well as its magnitude. We thus describe an alternative scenario in which solar geoengineering is used only to constrain the rate of change of global mean temperature; this leads to a finite deployment period for any emissions pathway that stabilizes global mean temperature. The length of deployment and amount of geoengineering required depends on the emissions pathway and allowable rate of change, e.g. in our simulations, reducing the maximum approximately 0.3°C per decade rate of change in an RCP 4.5 pathway to 0.1°C per decade would require geoengineering for 160 years; under RCP 6.0, the required time nearly doubles. We demonstrate that feedback control can limit rates of change in a climate model. Finally, we note that a decision to terminate use of solar geoengineering does not automatically imply rapid temperature increases: feedback could be used to limit rates of change in a gradual phase-out. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

The Role of Science in Advising the Decision Making Process: A Pathway for Building Effective Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Mexico at the Local Level

PubMed Central

Barraza, Roberto; Velazquez-Angulo, Gilberto; Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Romero-González, Jaime; Huertas-Cardozo, José Ignacio

2016-01-01

This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico. PMID:27128933

Climate Change and Collective Violence.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

2017-03-20

Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; ...

2014-11-16

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5)more » and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.« less

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5)more » and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.« less

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Interior pathways of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

PubMed

Bower, Amy S; Lozier, M Susan; Gary, Stefan F; Böning, Claus W

2009-05-14

To understand how our global climate will change in response to natural and anthropogenic forcing, it is essential to determine how quickly and by what pathways climate change signals are transported throughout the global ocean, a vast reservoir for heat and carbon dioxide. Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by open ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, is a particularly sensitive indicator of climate change on interannual to decadal timescales. Hydrographic observations made anywhere along the western boundary of the North Atlantic reveal a core of LSW at intermediate depths advected southward within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). These observations have led to the widely held view that the DWBC is the dominant pathway for the export of LSW from its formation site in the northern North Atlantic towards the Equator. Here we show that most of the recently ventilated LSW entering the subtropics follows interior, not DWBC, pathways. The interior pathways are revealed by trajectories of subsurface RAFOS floats released during the period 2003-2005 that recorded once-daily temperature, pressure and acoustically determined position for two years, and by model-simulated 'e-floats' released in the subpolar DWBC. The evidence points to a few specific locations around the Grand Banks where LSW is most often injected into the interior. These results have implications for deep ocean ventilation and suggest that the interior subtropical gyre should not be ignored when considering the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Climate Change: From Science to Practice.

PubMed

Wheeler, Nicola; Watts, Nick

2018-03-01

Climate change poses a significant threat to human health. Understanding how climate science can be translated into public health practice is an essential first step in enabling robust adaptation and improving resiliency to climate change. Recent research highlights the importance of iterative approaches to public health adaptation to climate change, enabling uncertainties of health impacts and barriers to adaptation to be accounted for. There are still significant barriers to adaptation, which are context-specific and thus present unique challenges to public health practice. The implementation of flexible adaptation approaches, using frameworks targeted for public health, is key to ensuring robust adaptation to climate change in public health practice. The BRACE framework provides an excellent approach for health adaptation to climate change. Combining this with the insights provided and by the adaptation pathways approach allows for more deliberate accounting of long-term uncertainties. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into public health practice and planning is important in facilitating this approach and overcoming the significant barriers to effective adaptation. Yet, the immediate and future limits to adaptation provide clear justification for urgent and accelerated efforts to mitigate climate change.

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

PubMed

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-03-16

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

PubMed Central

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-01-01

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

A bottom-up robust optimization framework for identifying river basin development pathways under deep climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic nonstationarity due to climate change poses challenges for long-term water infrastructure planning in river basin systems. While designing strategies that are flexible or adaptive hold intuitive appeal, development of well-performing strategies requires rigorous quantitative analysis that address uncertainties directly while making the best use of scientific information on the expected evolution of future climate. Multi-stage robust optimization (RO) offers a potentially effective and efficient technique for addressing the problem of staged basin-level planning under climate change, however the necessity of assigning probabilities to future climate states or scenarios is an obstacle to implementation, given that methods to reliably assign probabilities to future climate states are not well developed. We present a method that overcomes this challenge by creating a bottom-up RO-based framework that decreases the dependency on probability distributions of future climate and rather employs them after optimization to aid selection amongst competing alternatives. The iterative process yields a vector of `optimal' decision pathways each under the associated set of probabilistic assumptions. In the final phase, the vector of optimal decision pathways is evaluated to identify the solutions that are least sensitive to the scenario probabilities and are most-likely conditional on the climate information. The framework is illustrated for the planning of new dam and hydro-agricultural expansions projects in the Niger River Basin over a 45-year planning period from 2015 to 2060.

Climate change: could it help develop 'adaptive expertise'?

PubMed

Bell, Erica; Horton, Graeme; Blashki, Grant; Seidel, Bastian M

2012-05-01

Preparing health practitioners to respond to the rising burden of disease from climate change is emerging as a priority in health workforce policy and planning. However, this issue is hardly represented in the medical education research. The rapidly evolving wide range of direct and indirect consequences of climate change will require health professionals to have not only broad content knowledge but also flexibility and responsiveness to diverse regional conditions as part of complex health problem-solving and adaptation. It is known that adaptive experts may not necessarily be quick at solving familiar problems, but they do creatively seek to better solve novel problems. This may be the result of an acquired approach to practice or a pathway that can be fostered by learning environments. It is also known that building adaptive expertise in medical education involves putting students on a learning pathway that requires them to have, first, the motivation to innovatively problem-solve and, second, exposure to diverse content material, meaningfully presented. Including curriculum content on the health effects of climate change could help meet these two conditions for some students at least. A working definition and illustrative competencies for adaptive expertise for climate change, as well as examples of teaching and assessment approaches extrapolated from rural curricula, are provided.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

Landscape genomic insights into the historic migration of mountain hemlock in response to Holocene climate change.

PubMed

Johnson, Jeremy S; Gaddis, Keith D; Cairns, David M; Konganti, Kranti; Krutovsky, Konstantin V

2017-03-01

Untangling alternative historic dispersal pathways in long-lived tree species is critical to better understand how temperate tree species may respond to climatic change. However, disentangling these alternative pathways is often difficult. Emerging genomic technologies and landscape genetics techniques improve our ability to assess these pathways in natural systems. We address the question to what degree have microrefugial patches and long-distance dispersal been responsible for the colonization of mountain hemlock ( Tsuga mertensiana ) on the Alaskan Kenai Peninsula. We used double-digest restriction-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) to identify genetic variants across eight mountain hemlock sample sites on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. We assessed genetic diversity and linkage disequilibrium using landscape and population genetics approaches. Alternative historic dispersal pathways were assessed using discriminant analysis of principle components and electrical circuit theory. A combination of decreasing diversity, high gene flow, and landscape connectivity indicates that mountain hemlock colonization on the Kenai Peninsula is the result of long-distance dispersal. We found that contemporary climate best explained gene flow patterns and that isolation by resistance was a better model explaining genetic variation than isolation by distance. Our findings support the conclusion that mountain hemlock colonization is the result of several long-distance dispersal events following Pleistocene glaciation. The high dispersal capability suggests that mountain hemlock may be able to respond to future climate change and expand its range as new habitat opens along its northern distribution. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Anticipated water quality changes in response to climate change and potential consequences for inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Yushun; Todd, Andrew S.; Murphy, Margaret H.; Lomnicky, Gregg

2016-01-01

Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Changes anticipated with climate change in the future are likely to have a profound effect on inland aquatic ecosystems through diverse pathways, including changes in water quality. In this brief article, we present an initial discussion of several of the water quality responses that can be anticipated to occur within inland water bodies with climate change and how those changes are likely to impact fishes.

Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies.

PubMed

Djoudi, Houria; Locatelli, Bruno; Vaast, Chloe; Asher, Kiran; Brockhaus, Maria; Basnett Sijapati, Bimbika

2016-12-01

Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.

Advancing Australia's role in climate change and health research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Donna; Pitman, Andrew; Barnett, Adrian; Kaldor, John; Doherty, Peter; Stanley, Fiona

2017-02-01

A major Australian government report published 25 years ago called for urgent investment in research on the impacts of climate change on human health. Since that report's release, less than 0.1% of Australian health funding has been allocated to this area. As the world continues on a high emissions pathway, the health impacts from climate change are increasing in size and complexity. While Australia has established leadership roles in climate science and health research, it must now link these two strengths. Doing so would boost regional understanding of how climate change will affect health and what adaptation strategies are needed to reduce these threats. Such research would support better health planning and decision-making in partnership with other regional countries.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

2013-12-01

Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about atmospheric circulation with applications of the Lorenz model, explored the land-sea breeze problem with the Dynamics and Thermodynamics Circulation Model (DTDM), and developed simple radiative transfer models. Class projects explored the effects of varying the content of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, as well as the properties of paleoclimates in atmospheric simulations using EdGCM. Initial assessment of student knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors associated with these activities, particularly about climate change, was measured. Pre- and post-course surveys provided student perspectives about the courses and their learning about remote sensing and climate change concepts. Student performance on the tutorials and course projects evaluated students' ability to learn and apply their knowledge about climate change and skills with remote sensing to assigned problems or proposed projects of their choice. Survey and performance data illustrated that the exercises were successful in meeting their intended learning objectives as well as opportunities for further refinement and expansion.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE PAGES

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ...

2018-04-02

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

PubMed

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

Treesearch

A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

2011-01-01

Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

Are implicit policy assumptions about climate adaptation trying to push drinking water utilities down an impossible path?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klasic, M. R.; Ekstrom, J.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, Z.

2017-12-01

Extreme events such as wildfires, droughts, and flooding are projected to be more frequent and intense under a changing climate, increasing challenges to water quality management. To protect and improve public health, drinking water utility managers need to understand and plan for climate change and extreme events. This three year study began with the assumption that improved climate projections were key to advancing climate adaptation at the local level. Through a survey (N = 259) and interviews (N = 61) with California drinking water utility managers during the peak of the state's recent drought, we found that scientific information was not a key barrier hindering adaptation. Instead, we found that managers fell into three distinct mental models based on their interaction with, perceptions, and attitudes, towards scientific information and the future of water in their system. One of the mental models, "modeled futures", is a concept most in line with how climate change scientists talk about the use of information. Drinking water utilities falling into the "modeled future" category tend to be larger systems that have adequate capacity to both receive and use scientific information. Medium and smaller utilities in California, that more often serve rural low income communities, tend to fall into the other two mental models, "whose future" and "no future". We show evidence that there is an implicit presumption that all drinking water utility managers should strive to align with "modeled future" mental models. This presentation questions this assumption as it leaves behind many utilities that need to adapt to climate change (several thousand in California alone), but may not have the technical, financial, managerial, or other capacity to do so. It is clear that no single solution or pathway to drought resilience exists for water utilities, but we argue that a more explicit understanding and definition of what it means to be a resilient drinking water utility is necessary. By highlighting, then questioning, the assumption that all utility managers should strive to have "modeled future" mentalities, this presentation seeks to foster an open dialogue around which pathway or pathways are most feasible for supporting drinking water utility managers planning for climate change.

The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices.

PubMed

Grillakis, Manolis G; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G; Tsanis, Ioannis K

2016-08-01

Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the results on tourism significantly.

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Stocks, Brian J.; Gauthier, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. PMID:27513660

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-07-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which is expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of Global Climate Model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the Integrated Catchment Model of Phosphorus Dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivity) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by soil type (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy-loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-12-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which are expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as it is to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of global climate model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by quaternary geology (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

Assessing the potential impact and uncertainty of climate, land use change and demographic trends on malaria transmission in Africa by 2050.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Caporaso, Luca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe

2014-05-01

Previous analyses of data has shown that in addition to variability and longer term trends in climate variables, both land use change (LUC) and population mobility and urbanisation trends can impact malaria transmission intensities and socio-economic burden. With the new regional VECTRI dynamical malaria model it is now possible to examine these in an integrated modelling framework. Using 5 global climate models which were bias corrected using the WATCH data for the recent ISIMIP project, the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), population projections disaggregated from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Land use change from the HYDE model output used in the CMIP5 process, we construct a multi-member ensemble of malaria transmission intensity projections for 2050. The ensemble integrations indicate that climate has the leading impact on malaria changes, but that population growth and urbanisation can offset the effect of climate locally. LUC impacts can also be significant on the local scale but their assessment is highly uncertain and only indicative in this study. It is argued that the study should be repeated with a range of malaria models or VECTRI configurations in order to assess the additional uncertainty due to the malaria model assumptions.

Seawater intrusion risk analysis under climate change conditions for the Gaza Strip aquifer (Palestine)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dentoni, Marta; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Lecca, Giuditta

2014-05-01

Seawater intrusion (SWI) has become a major threat to coastal freshwater resources, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, where this problem is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate groundwater resources management and with serious potential impacts from projected climate changes. A proper analysis and risk assessment that includes climate scenarios is essential for the design of water management measures to mitigate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SWI. In this study a methodology for SWI risk analysis in coastal aquifers is developed and applied to the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer in Palestine. The method is based on the origin-pathway-target model, evaluating the final value of SWI risk by applying the overlay principle to the hazard map (representing the origin of SWI), the vulnerability map (representing the pathway of groundwater flow) and the elements map (representing the target of SWI). Results indicate the important role of groundwater simulation in SWI risk assessment and illustrate how mitigation measures can be developed according to predefined criteria to arrive at quantifiable expected benefits. Keywords: Climate change, coastal aquifer, seawater intrusion, risk analysis, simulation/optimization model. Acknowledgements. The study is partially funded by the project "Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB)", FP7-ENV-2009-1, GA 244151.

Environmental proteomics of the mussel Mytilus: implications for tolerance to stress and change in limits of biogeographic ranges in response to climate change.

PubMed

Tomanek, Lars

2012-11-01

Climate change will affect temperature extremes and averages, and hyposaline conditions in coastal areas due to extreme precipitation events and oceanic pH. How climate change will push species close to, or beyond, their physiological tolerance limits as well as change the limits of their biogeographic ranges can probably be investigated best in species that have already responded to climate change and whose distribution ranges are currently in flux. Blue mussels provide such a study system, with the invading warm-adapted Mediterranean Mytilus galloprovincialis having replaced the native more cold-adapted Mytilus trossulus from the southern part of its range in southern California over the past century, possibly due to climate change. However, freshwater input may prevent the latter species from expanding further north. We used a proteomics approach to characterize the responses of the two congeners to acute heat stress, chronic thermal acclimation, and hyposaline stress. In addition, we investigated the proteomic changes in response to decreasing seawater pH in another bivalve, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica. The results suggest that reactive oxygen species (ROS) are a common costressor during environmental stress, including oceanic acidification, and possibly cause modifications of cytoskeletal elements. All stressors disrupted protein homeostasis, indicated by the induction of molecular chaperones and, in the case of acute heat stress, proteasome isoforms, possibly due both to protein denaturation directly by the stressor and to the production of ROS. Acute stress by heat and hyposalinity changed several small G-proteins implicated in cytoskeletal modifications and vesicular transport, respectively. Changes in abundance of proteins involved in energy metabolism and ROS scavenging further suggest a possible trade-off during acute and chronic stress from heat and cold between ROS-generating NADH-producing pathways and ROS-scavenging NADPH-producing pathways, especially through the reaction of NADPH-dependent isocitrate dehydrogenase and the pentose-phosphate pathway. Some of the proteomic changes may not constitute de novo protein synthesis but rather shifts in abundance of isoforms differing in posttranslational modifications, specifically acetylation by a NAD-dependent deacetylase (sirtuin). Interspecific differences suggest that these processes set physiological tolerance limits and thereby contribute to recent biogeographic shifts in range, possibly caused by climate change.

Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

DOE PAGES

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth; ...

2014-11-02

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delaymore » China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.« less

Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delaymore » China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.« less

Climate Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and Hydroxyl

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Bell, N.; Faluvegi, G.

2003-01-01

Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon systems outside of Asia. These results indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant climate impacts against a background of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, and thus represent a key source of uncertainty in near-term climate projection that should be seriously considered in future climate assessments.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

Communicating uncertainty in circulation aspects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Ted

2017-04-01

The usual way of representing uncertainty in climate change is to define a likelihood range of possible futures, conditioned on a particular pathway of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCPs). Typically these likelihood ranges are derived from multi-model ensembles. However, there is no obvious basis for treating such ensembles as probability distributions. Moreover, for aspects of climate related to atmospheric circulation, such an approach generally leads to large uncertainty and low confidence in projections. Yet this does not mean that the associated climate risks are small. We therefore need to develop suitable ways of communicating climate risk whilst acknowledging the uncertainties. This talk will outline an approach based on conditioning the purely thermodynamic aspects of climate change, concerning which there is comparatively high confidence, on circulation-related aspects, and treating the latter through non-probabilistic storylines.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

PubMed

van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

2017-07-01

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-01-01

A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs. PMID:29267204

Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in biodiversity hotspots. Results also quantify the conflicts between food and water security, biodiversity protection, and climate change mitigation.

The effectiveness and resilience of phosphorus management practices in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Palmer, M.; Whitehead, P. G.; Baulch, H. M.; Woods, D.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Dillon, P. J.

2016-09-01

Uncertainty surrounding future climate makes it difficult to have confidence that current nutrient management strategies will remain effective. This study used monitoring and modeling to assess current effectiveness (% phosphorus reduction) and resilience (defined as continued effectiveness under a changing climate) of best management practices (BMPs) within five catchments of the Lake Simcoe watershed, Ontario. The Integrated Catchment Phosphorus model (INCA-P) was used, and monitoring data were used to calibrate and validate a series of management scenarios. To assess current BMP effectiveness, models were run over a baseline period 1985-2014 with and without management scenarios. Climate simulations were run (2070-2099), and BMP resilience was calculated as the percent change in effectiveness between the baseline and future period. Results demonstrated that livestock removal from water courses was the most effective BMP, while manure storage adjustments were the least. Effectiveness varied between catchments, influenced by the dominant hydrological and nutrient transport pathways. Resilience of individual BMPs was associated with catchment sensitivity to climate change. BMPs were most resilient in catchments with high soil water storage capacity and small projected changes in frozen-water availability and in soil moisture deficits. Conversely, BMPs were less resilient in catchments with larger changes in spring melt magnitude and in overland flow proportions. Results indicated that BMPs implemented are not always those most suited to catchment flow pathways, and a more site-specific approach would enhance prospects for maintaining P reduction targets. Furthermore, BMP resilience to climate change can be predicted from catchment physical properties and present-day hydrochemical sensitivity to climate forcing.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Climate Change and Food Safety: Beyond Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziska, L. H.; Crimmins, A. R.

2016-12-01

There is merited interest in determining the extent of climate disruption on agricultural production and food security. However, additional aspects of food security, including food safety, nutrition and distribution have, overall, received less attention. Beginning in 2013, the U.S. Global Change Research Program as part of the ongoing National Climate Assessment, began a directed effort to evaluate the vulnerability of climate change to these under-represented aspects of food security for developed countries. Based on this extensive review of current science, several key findings were developed: (a) Climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in weather extremes, is expected to increase the exposure of food to certain pathogens and toxins; (b) Climate change will increase human exposure to chemical contaminants in food through several pathways; (c) The nutritional value of agriculturally important food crops, including cereals, will decrease in response to the ongoing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide; (d) Increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events associated with climate change may disrupt food distribution. These findings will be presented as a means to describe the state of the science and expand on food security research in the broader context of public health and climate change.

Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?

PubMed

Swaminathan, Ashwin; Lucas, Robyn M; Harley, David; McMichael, Anthony J

2014-11-11

The human immune system is an interface across which many climate change sensitive exposures can affect health outcomes. Gaining an understanding of the range of potential effects that climate change could have on immune function will be of considerable importance, particularly for child health, but has, as yet, received minimal research attention. We postulate several mechanisms whereby climate change sensitive exposures and conditions will subtly impair aspects of the human immune response, thereby altering the distribution of vulnerability within populations-particularly for children-to infection and disease. Key climate change-sensitive pathways include under-nutrition, psychological stress and exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation, with effects on susceptibility to infection, allergy and autoimmune diseases. Other climate change sensitive exposures may also be important and interact, either additively or synergistically, to alter health risks. Conducting directed research in this area is imperative as the potential public health implications of climate change-induced weakening of the immune system at both individual and population levels are profound. This is particularly relevant for the already vulnerable children of the developing world, who will bear a disproportionate burden of future adverse environmental and geopolitical consequences of climate change.

Feasible Electricity Infrastructure Pathways in the Context of Climate-Water Change Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Cohen, S. M.; Tidwell, V. C.; Newmark, R. L.; Fekete, B. M.; Corsi, F.; Sun, Y.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.

2017-12-01

The carbon and water intensity of US electricity generation has recently decreased due to the natural gas revolution and deployment of renewable technologies. Yet, power plants that require water for cooling still provide 80% of electricity generation and projected climate-water conditions may limit their power output and affect reliability. Understanding the connections and tradeoffs across water, electricity and climate systems is timely, as the nation tries to mitigate and adapt to a changing climate. Electricity expansion models are used to provide insight on power sector pathways given certain policy goals and economic conditions, but do not typically account for productivity limitations due to physical climate-water constraints. Here, we account for such constraints by coupling an electricity expansion model (Regional Energy Deployment System - ReEDS) with the combined Water Balance and Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Models (WBM-TP2M), which calculate the available capacity at power plants as a function of hydrologic flows, climate conditions, power plant technology and environmental regulations. To fully capture and incorporate climate-water impacts into ReEDS, a specific rule-set was designed for the temporal and spatial downscaling and up-scaling of ReEDS results into WBM-TP2M inputs and visa versa - required to achieve a modeling `loop' that will enable convergence on a feasible solution in the context of economic and geophysical constraints and opportunities. This novel modeling approach is the next phase of research for understanding electricity system vulnerabilities and adaptation measures using energy-water-climate modeling, which to-date has been limited by a focus on individual generators without analyzing power generation as a collective regional system. This study considers four energy policy/economic pathways under future climate-water resource conditions, designed under the National Energy Water System assessment framework. Results highlight the importance of linking Earth-system and economic modeling tools and provide insight on potential electricity infrastructure pathways that are sustainable, in terms lowering both water use and carbon emissions, and reliable in the face of future climate-water resource constraints.

Severity of climate change dictates the direction of biophysical feedbacks of vegetation change to Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxin; Jansson, Christer; Miller, Paul; Smith, Ben; Samuelsson, Patrick

2014-05-01

Vegetation-climate feedbacks induced by vegetation dynamics under climate change alter biophysical properties of the land surface that regulate energy and water exchange with the atmosphere. Simulations with Earth System Models applied at global scale suggest that the current warming in the Arctic has been amplified, with large contributions from positive feedbacks, dominated by the effect of reduced surface albedo as an increased distribution, cover and taller stature of trees and shrubs mask underlying snow, darkening the surface. However, these models generally employ simplified representation of vegetation dynamics and structure and a coarse grid resolution, overlooking local or regional scale details determined by diverse vegetation composition and landscape heterogeneity. In this study, we perform simulations using an advanced regional coupled vegetation-climate model (RCA-GUESS) applied at high resolution (0.44×0.44° ) over the Arctic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Arctic) domain. The climate component (RCA4) is forced with lateral boundary conditions from EC-EARTH CMIP5 simulations for three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Vegetation-climate response is simulated by the individual-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), accounting for phenology, physiology, demography and resource competition of individual-based vegetation, and feeding variations of leaf area index and vegetative cover fraction back to the climate component, thereby adjusting surface properties and surface energy fluxes. The simulated 2m air temperature, precipitation, vegetation distribution and carbon budget for the present period has been evaluated in another paper. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the biophysical feedbacks arising from vegetation shifts in response to different CO2 concentration pathways and their associated climate change. Our results indicate that the albedo feedback dominates simulated warming in spring in all three scenarios, while in summer, evapotranspiration feedback, governing the partitioning of the return energy flux from the surface to the atmosphere into latent and sensible heat, exerts evaporative cooling effects, the magnitude of which depends on the severity of climate change, in turn driven by the underlying GHG emissions pathway, resulting in shift in the sign of net biophysical at higher levels of warming. Spatially, western Siberia is identified as the most susceptible location, experiencing the potential to reverse biophysical feedbacks in all seasons. We further analyze how the pattern of vegetation shifts triggers different signs of net effects of biophysical feedbacks.

Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

2016-01-01

A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2017-04-01

The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change signals from climate variability (e.g. changes in water cycle, extremes...), for assessing strengths and limitations of methodologies using high end climate scenarios versus true stabilisation pathways, and for exploring long term risks beyond transient response, with consideration for overshoots and the full timescale of Earth system feedbacks. Lessons learnt from past warm climatic phases may also provide insights complementary to projections, albeit without the perspective of rates of changes that is specific to the issue of 1.5°C global warming. This special report is also designed to be complementary from the other reports in preparation for the IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle (AR6), including the special reports on the ocean and the cryosphere, on land use issues, both scheduled for 2019, and the Working Group main assessment reports, scheduled for 2021-2022.

Climate-smart agriculture for food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; Jarvis, Andrew; Kossam, Fred; Mann, Wendy; McCarthy, Nancy; Meybeck, Alexandre; Neufeldt, Henry; Remington, Tom; Sen, Pham Thi; Sessa, Reuben; Shula, Reynolds; Tibu, Austin; Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.

2014-12-01

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production and increase the vulnerability of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, which includes most of the world's poor. Climate change disrupts food markets, posing population-wide risks to food supply. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector, civil society and policymakers towards climate-resilient pathways through four main action areas: (1) building evidence; (2) increasing local institutional effectiveness; (3) fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and (4) linking climate and agricultural financing. CSA differs from 'business-as-usual' approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions, supported by innovative policy and financing actions.

Rethinking climate change adaptation and place through a situated pathways framework: A case study from the Big Hole Valley, USA

Treesearch

Daniel J. Murphy; Laurie Yung; Carina Wyborn; Daniel R. Williams

2017-01-01

This paper critically examines the temporal and spatial dynamics of adaptation in climate change science and explores how dynamic notions of 'place' elucidate novel ways of understanding community vulnerability and adaptation. Using data gathered from a narrative scenario-building process carried out among communities of the Big Hole Valley in Montana, the...

Adaptation pathways: ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management

Treesearch

Todd A. Ontl; Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Anthony W. D’Amato; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating...

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-05-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the relevance of new scenarios for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.

2013-12-01

Over the past three decades, scenario analyses have occupied a central role in assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on natural and human systems at different scales during the 21st century. Here, we discuss the role and relevance of new scenarios using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of new scenarios needing to be improved in order to enhance their usefulness for IAV studies: the ability to work coherently across spatial scales and adding indicators of importance to projections of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in addition to standard indicators of population and gross domestic product. This paper presents a research agenda to add income distribution, spatial population, human health projections, and governance indicators to the new scenarios.

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

2018-02-01

Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Stratospheric Ozone Over the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlton-Perez, A. J.; Hawkins, E.; Eyring, V.; Cionni, I.; Bodeker, G. E.; Kinnison, D. E.; Akiyoshi, H.; Frith, S. M.; Garcia, R.; Gettelman, A.;

Aeroallergens, Allergic Disease, and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Reid, Colleen E.

2009-01-01

Recent research has shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens and thus allergic diseases in humans. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration acts as a fertilizer for plant growth. The fertilizing effects of carbon dioxide, as well as increased temperatures from climate change, increase pollen production and the allergen content of pollen grains. In addition, higher temperatures are changing the timing and duration of the pollen season. As regional climates change, plants can move into new areas and changes in atmospheric circulation can blow pollen- and spore-containing dust to new areas, thus introducing people to allergens to which they have not been exposed previously. Climate change also influences the concentrations of airborne pollutants, which alone, and in conjunction with aeroallergens, can exacerbate asthma or other respiratory illnesses. The few epidemiological analyses of meteorological factors, aeroallergens, and allergic diseases demonstrate the pathways through which climate can exert its influence on aeroallergens and allergic diseases. In addition to the need for more research, there is the imperative to take preventive and adaptive actions to address the onset and exacerbation of allergic diseases associated with climate variability and change. PMID:19908096

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

Indonesian Throughflow drove Australian climate from humid Pliocene to arid Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, B. A.; Renema, W.; Henderiks, J.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Groeneveld, J.; Castañeda, I. S.; Reuning, L.; Bogus, K.; Auer, G.; Ishiwa, T.; McHugh, C.; Gallagher, S. J.; Fulthorpe, C.; Expedition 356 Scientists, I.

2016-12-01

Our understanding of the onset of aridity in Australia and associated mechanisms is limited by the availability of long, continuous climate archives, particularly for the NW shelf in the Pliocene. Five sites were cored and logged on IODP Expedition 356, western Australian margin. Analysis of the natural gamma ray (NGR) suite of downhole logs, provide insights to the timing and rate of climate change. NGR data provide an outstanding tool to assess continental humidity (K%) and aridity (Th/K, Uppm); interpretations are supported with clay mineral data. We show progressive constriction of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the emerging Maritime Continent drove Australian climate to become drier and more variable. We identify 3 intervals of latest Miocene through early Pleistocene change: sudden onset of humidity at 5.5 Ma (Humid Interval), followed by decreased humidity (Transition Interval) and establishment of the NW dust pathway (Arid Interval) at 2.3 Ma. The Humid Interval is associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) expansion west to the South China Sea and higher Indian Ocean SSTs. Our study of the NW region confirms wetter climates ringed the arid center during the early Pliocene. Reduced moisture availability began at 3.3 Ma, coincident with cooling in the WPWP and elsewhere, global atmospheric circulation constriction and Indian Ocean subsurface freshening and cooling, a direct response to ITF constriction. Greatest aridity and the onset of the modern dust pathway, documented in Th/K and Uppm logs beginning 2.3 Ma, is coincident with orbitally- controlled climatic change, and reorganization of Indian Ocean circulation. Our data indicate Australian climate is driven by tectonic and oceanographic changes in the ITF. Such changes altered regional atmospheric moisture transport and Indian Ocean circulation patterns and led to a shift from Pacific to Indian Ocean influence on theNW Australian climate, well after the intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation. We conclude that the Maritime Continent is the switchboard modulating teleconnections between monsoonal and glacial climate systems.

Climate change, conflict and health.

PubMed

Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

2015-10-01

Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Climate change and dead zones.

PubMed

Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

2015-04-01

Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and children's health.

PubMed

Bernstein, Aaron S; Myers, Samuel S

2011-04-01

To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk. Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere. Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane

2014-04-01

The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climatemore » policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.« less

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation.

PubMed

Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

2006-06-24

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways--eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health.

PubMed

Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

2006-07-01

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R

2017-12-05

This review examined the likely impact of climate change upon food-borne disease in the UK using Campylobacter and Salmonella as example organisms. Campylobacter is an important food-borne disease and an increasing public health threat. There is a reasonable evidence base that the environment and weather play a role in its transmission to humans. However, uncertainty as to the precise mechanisms through which weather affects disease, make it difficult to assess the likely impact of climate change. There are strong positive associations between Salmonella cases and ambient temperature, and a clear understanding of the mechanisms behind this. However, because the incidence of Salmonella disease is declining in the UK, any climate change increases are likely to be small. For both Salmonella and Campylobacter the disease incidence is greatest in older adults and young children. There are many pathways through which climate change may affect food but only a few of these have been rigorously examined. This provides a high degree of uncertainty as to what the impacts of climate change will be. Food is highly controlled at the National and EU level. This provides the UK with resilience to climate change as well as potential to adapt to its consequences but it is unknown whether these are sufficient in the context of a changing climate.

Sensitivity of Ocean Chemistry and Oxygen Change to the Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, L.; Wang, S.; Zheng, M.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

With increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. In particular, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would affect the projection of ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To examine the effect of climate change on ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry, we used an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform simulations that are driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration pathway of RCP 8.5 with climate sensitivity varying from 0.0°C to 4.5 °C. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. Our simulations show that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude, to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

PubMed Central

Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-01-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

PubMed

Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-13

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Global Air Quality and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Ecological grief as a mental health response to climate change-related loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunsolo, Ashlee; Ellis, Neville R.

2018-04-01

Climate change is increasingly understood to impact mental health through multiple pathways of risk, including intense feelings of grief as people suffer climate-related losses to valued species, ecosystems and landscapes. Despite growing research interest, ecologically driven grief, or `ecological grief', remains an underdeveloped area of inquiry. We argue that grief is a natural and legitimate response to ecological loss, and one that may become more common as climate impacts worsen. Drawing upon our own research in Northern Canada and the Australian Wheatbelt, combined with a synthesis of the literature, we offer future research directions for the study of ecological grief.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

The Feasibility of Avoiding Future Climate Impacts: Results from the AVOID Programmes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, J. A.; Warren, R.; Arnell, N.; Buckle, S.

2014-12-01

The AVOID programme and its successor, AVOID2, have focused on answering three core questions: how do we characterise potentially dangerous climate change and impacts, which emissions pathways can avoid at least some of these impacts, and how feasible are the future reductions needed to significantly deviate from a business-as-usual future emissions pathway. The first AVOID project succeeded in providing the UK Government with evidence to inform its position on climate change. A key part of the work involved developing a range of global emissions pathways and estimating and understanding the corresponding global impacts. This made use of a combination of complex general circulation models, simple climate models, pattern-scaling and state-of-the art impacts models. The results characterise the range of avoidable impacts across the globe in several key sectors including river and coastal flooding, cooling and heating energy demand, crop productivity and aspects of biodiversity. The avoided impacts between a scenario compatible with a 4ºC global warming and one with a 2ºC global warming were found to be highly sector dependent and avoided fractions typically ranged between 20% and 70%. A further key aspect was characterising the magnitude of the uncertainty involved, which is found to be very large in some impact sectors although the avoided fraction appears a more robust metric. The AVOID2 programme began in 2014 and will provide results in the run up to the Paris CoP in 2015. This includes new post-IPCC 5th assessment evidence to inform the long-term climate goal, a more comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty ranges of feasible emission pathways compatible with the long-term goal and enhanced estimates of global impacts using the latest generation of impact models and scenarios.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uejio, Christopher K.; Christenson, Megan; Moran, Colleen; Gorelick, Mark

2017-06-01

This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046-2065 compared to 1991-2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991-2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991-2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011-2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ˜1.5%, range: -3.6-4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ˜3.0%, range: 0.2-7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ˜82.0%, range: 82.0-83.0%).

Estimating Environmental Co-benefits of U.S. GHG Reduction Pathways Using the GCAM-USA Integrated Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

Previous studies have shown that mitigating climate change through curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring about substantial environmental co-benefits, such as for air quality and reductions in energy-related water demand. A variety of pathways are available for reducing...

Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

PubMed

Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

2013-04-01

According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

Reassessing the penultimate interglacial analog for current climate change, evidence from Antarctic dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarons, S. M.; Aciego, S.; McConnell, J.

2017-12-01

Dust emissions and transport are linked to spatial and temporal climate variability, with dust provenance providing clues to past climate and climate impacts. The penultimate interglacial period (MIS 5e) has been suggested as an analog to Holocene climate change. We present the first evaluation of the MIS 5e ice archive developed at Taylor Glacier, East Antarctica and provide a record of dust transported to Taylor Glacier during MIS 5e. Our record shows significant differences between MIS 5e, Holocene, and pre-industrial dust transported to East Antarctica. The MIS 5e dust is sourced from New Zealand and southern South America (SSA), while the Holocene dust is sourced from local Antarctic, SSA, and potentially Australian sources. This profound change in composition suggests a variation in atmospheric transport pathways and/or paleo-environmental conditions between the interglacial periods, and indicates that MIS 5e should be reassessed as an analog for climate change and associated impacts.

Supporting Climate Literacy in the K12 Classroom by Identifying Educators' Perceived Barriers to and Gaps in Resources for Teaching Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tayne, K.

2015-12-01

As K12 teachers seek ways to provide meaningful learning opportunities for students to understand climate change, they often face barriers to teaching about climate and/or lack relevant resources on the topic. In an effort to better understand how to support K12 teachers in this role, a survey about "teaching climate change" was created and distributed. The results of the 2015 survey are presented, based on more than 200 teacher responses. Respondents included National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) members, 2015 STEM Teacher and Researcher (STAR) Fellows and science teachers from several U.S. school districts. The survey identifies teachers' perceived barriers to teaching climate change, for example difficulty integrating climate change concepts into specific core courses (i.e., biology), as well as desired classroom resources, such as climate change project-based learning (PBL) units that connect to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Survey results also indicate possible pathways for federal agencies, non-profits, universities and other organizations to have a more significant impact on climate literacy in the classroom. In response to the survey results, a comprehensive guide is being created to teach climate change in K12 classrooms, addressing barriers and providing resources for teachers. For example, in the survey, some teachers indicated that they lacked confidence in their content knowledge and understanding of climate change, so this guide provides web-based resources to help further an educator's understanding of climate change, as well as opportunities for relevant online and in-person professional development. In this quest for desired resources to teach climate change, gaps in accessible and available online resources are being identified. Information about these "gaps" may help organizations that strive to support climate literacy in the classroom better serve teachers.

Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

2014-12-01

The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovič, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalský, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Obersteiner, Michael

2014-11-01

Wheat is the third largest crop globally and an essential source of calories in human diets. Maintaining and increasing global wheat production is therefore strongly linked to food security. A large geographic variation in wheat yields across similar climates points to sizeable yield gaps in many nations, and indicates a regionally variable flexibility to increase wheat production. Wheat is particularly sensitive to a changing climate thus limiting management opportunities to enable (sustainable) intensification with potentially significant implications for future wheat production. We present a comprehensive global evaluation of future wheat yields and production under distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agro-ecosystem model. We project, in a geographically explicit manner, future wheat production pathways for rainfed and irrigated wheat systems. We explore agricultural management flexibility by quantifying the development of wheat yield potentials under current, rainfed, exploitable (given current irrigation infrastructure), and irrigated intensification levels. Globally, because of climate change, wheat production under conventional management (around the year 2000) would decrease across all RCPs by 37 to 52 and 54 to 103 Mt in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively. However, the exploitable and potential production gap will stay above 350 and 580 Mt, respectively, for all RCPs and time horizons, indicating that negative impacts of climate change can globally be offset by adequate intensification using currently existing irrigation infrastructure and nutrient additions. Future world wheat production on cropland already under cultivation can be increased by ~ 35% through intensified fertilization and ~ 50% through increased fertilization and extended irrigation, if sufficient water would be available. Significant potential can still be exploited, especially in rainfed wheat systems in Russia, Eastern Europe and North America.

Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

2017-10-01

Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

2013-05-01

This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The creation of reasonable projections toward sustainable development considering the climate and socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Iida, A.; Nakatani, J.; Noda, K.; Take, M.; Nakamura, S.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate and socioeconomic change in the future are important factors to consider when discussing the issues of sustainable development in the Pacific Islands, since their impacts here are relatively large compared to those in other regions due to the severe limitation of internal resources and the external dependency of the life essentials. The tourism industry is the key driving force behind the economic growth in island region and it is promoted by the environmental attractions. This study constructs scenarios that foresees the effects of these changes and assesses the subsequent impact on both the local community and the tourism industry. In this study, the scenarios have been developed based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The progress of climate change was expected to affect the attraction of tourists as well as resources availability and food production. The difference of SSPs was expected to affect the quality of life in the local society and the quantity and/or the quality of tourism. A downscale and bias-correction using a local dataset was applied to assess the impacts of climate change, and the relationships between GDP, population, and estimated land availability in the current situation were applied to assess the impact of socioeconomic change. As case studies, the scenarios were constructed to assess the impacts in the Republic of Palau and Ishigaki Island, Japan. Both are typical islands where tourism is the main industry. The situation of environmental resources, local society, and tourism under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions was assessed using these scenarios. The creation of reasonable projections under appropriate scenarios can contribute to sustainable development not only in these islands but also in most Pacific Islands.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

When the Well Runs Dry: Climate Change, Water and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.

2014-12-01

Water is a critical pathway between changes in climate and impacts on human health. Increased intensity of the hydrologic cycle can impair water quality through both drought and runoff associated with extreme precipitation events. Local changes or extremes in hydrological cycles can also alter the life cycles of moquitoes, ticks, snails, and other carriers of human diseases. These impacts in turn can affect the transmission of malaria, schistosomiasis, and many other human diseases. Warmer freshwater and coastal waters, in combination with other factors like fertilizer runoff and salinity, are also associated with proliferation of a variety of human pathogens, including cyanobacteria and vibrio species. This presentation will highlight the many linkages between climate change, water and human health. It will review recent findings of the US National Climate Assessment and 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC with regards to water-related threats to health, and discuss approaches to modeling health outcomes of water-associated climate change impacts.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

PubMed Central

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J.A.; Read, Jordan S; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes. PMID:28440790

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-04-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Regional Climate Sensitivity- and Historical-Based Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphaël.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2018-05-01

Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate.

Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.

PubMed

Liu, Cheng; Hofstra, Nynke; Franz, Eelco

2013-05-15

The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric bacteria, but also with their growth and survival. Using all relevant literature, this study reviews and synthesises major impacts of climate change (temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes) on contamination sources (manure, soil, surface water, sewage and wildlife) and pathways of foodborne pathogens (focussing on Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.) on pre-harvested LGVs. Whether climate change increases their prevalence depends not only on the resulting local balance of the positive and negative impacts but also on the selected regional climate change scenarios. However, the contamination risks are likely to increase. This review shows the need for quantitative modelling approaches with scenario analyses and additional laboratory experiments. This study gives an extensive overview of the impacts of climate change on the contamination of pre-harvested LGVs and shows that climate change should not be ignored in food safety management and research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Which Moral Foundations Predict Willingness to Make Lifestyle Changes to Avert Climate Change in the USA?

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Janis L.; McLeod, Poppy; Bloomfield, Robert; Allred, Shorna

2016-01-01

Jonathan Haidt’s Moral Foundations Theory identifies five moral axes that can influence human motivation to take action on vital problems like climate change. The theory focuses on five moral foundations, including compassion, fairness, purity, authority, and ingroup loyalty; these have been found to differ between liberals and conservatives as well as Democrats and Republicans. Here we show, based on the Cornell National Social Survey (USA), that valuations of compassion and fairness were strong, positive predictors of willingness to act on climate change, whereas purity had a non-significant tendency in the positive direction (p = 0.07). Ingroup loyalty and authority were not supported as important predictor variables using model selection (ΔAICc__). Compassion and fairness were more highly valued by liberals, whereas purity, authority, and in-group loyalty were more highly valued by conservatives. As in previous studies, participants who were younger, more liberal, and reported greater belief in climate change, also showed increased willingness to act on climate change. Our research supports the potential importance of moral foundations as drivers of intentions with respect to climate change action, and suggests that compassion, fairness, and to a lesser extent, purity, are potential moral pathways for personal action on climate change in the USA. PMID:27760207

Path Dependence of Regional Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrington, Tyler; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2013-04-01

Path dependence of the climate response to CO2 forcing has been investigated from a global mean perspective, with evidence suggesting that long-term global mean temperature and precipitation changes are proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, and independent of emissions pathway. Little research, however, has been done on path dependence of regional climate changes, particularly in areas that could be affected by tipping points. Here, we utilize the UVic Earth System Climate Model version 2.9, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. It consists of a 3-dimensional ocean general circulation model, coupled with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, and a thermodynamic energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere. This is then coupled with a terrestrial carbon cycle model and an ocean carbon-cycle model containing an inorganic carbon and marine ecosystem component. Model coverage is global with a zonal resolution of 3.6 degrees and meridional resolution of 1.8 degrees. The model is forced with idealized emissions scenarios across five cumulative emission groups (1300 GtC, 2300 GtC, 3300 GtC, 4300 GtC, and 5300 GtC) to explore the path dependence of (and the possibility of hysteresis in) regional climate changes. Emission curves include both fossil carbon emissions and emissions from land use changes, and span a variety of peak and decline scenarios with varying emission rates, as well as overshoot and instantaneous pulse scenarios. Tipping points being explored include those responsible for the disappearance of summer Arctic sea-ice, the irreversible melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the dieback of the Amazonian Rainforest. Preliminary results suggest that global mean climate change after cessation of CO2 emissions is independent of the emissions pathway, only varying with total cumulative emissions, in accordance with results from earlier studies. Forthcoming analysis will investigate path dependence of regional climate change. Some evidence exists to support the idea of hysteresis in the Greenland Ice Sheet, and since tipping points represent non-linear elements of the climate system, we suspect that the other tipping points might also show path dependence.

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

PubMed

Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-03-04

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers.

PubMed

Robillard, Cassandra M; Coristine, Laura E; Soares, Rosana N; Kerr, Jeremy T

2015-12-01

Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Mehrotra, S.; Dhakal, S.; Bowman, T.; Ibrahim, S. Ali

2015-01-01

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems: chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Forbes, Donald L.

2014-01-01

In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Synoptic moisture pathways associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for winter and spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Dominant synoptic moisture pathway patterns of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) in winter and spring over Canada West and East were identified using the self-organizing map method. Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) were related to the variability in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Changes in both occurrences of LSMPs and seasonal precipitation occurred under those LSMPs were evaluated to attribute observed changes in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on occurrences of LSMPs were also examined. Results show that synoptic moisture pathways and LSMPs exhibit the propagation of jet streams as the location and direction of ridges and troughs, and the strength and center of pressure lows and highs varied considerably between LSMPs. Significant decreases in occurrences of synoptic moisture pathway patterns that are favorable with positive precipitation anomalies and more precipitation extremes in winter over Canada West resulted in decreases in seasonal precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes. LSMPs resulting in a hot and dry climate and less (more) frequent precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies in winter and northwestern Canada in spring are more likely to occur in years with a negative phase of PNA. Occurrences of LSMPs for a wet climate and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Canada are associated with a positive phase of NAO. In El Niño years or negative PDO years, LSMPs associated with a dry climate and less frequent precipitation extremes over western Canada tend to occur.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

How will SOA change in the future?: SOA IN THE FUTURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Guangxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Zhou, Cheng

2016-02-17

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) plays a significant role in the Earth system by altering its radiative balance. Here we use an Earth system model coupled with an explicit SOA formation module to estimate the response of SOA concentrations to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and human land use in the future. We find that climate change is the major driver for SOA change under the representative concentration pathways for the 8.5 future scenario. Climate change increases isoprene emission rate by 18% with the effect of temperature increases outweighing that of the CO2 inhibition effect. Annual mean global SOA mass ismore » increased by 25% as a result of climate change. However, anthropogenic emissions and land use change decrease SOA. The net effect is that future global SOA burden in 2100 is nearly the same as that of the present day. The SOA concentrations over the Northern Hemisphere are predicted to decline in the future due to the control of sulfur emissions.« less

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Richardson, Anthony J; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa J; Brown, Christopher J; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2014-03-27

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J.

2011-07-29

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m{sup -2} in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, includingmore » shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m{sup -2}, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.« less

Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-11-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on US-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-11-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Séférian, Roland; Rocher, Matthias; Guivarch, Céline; Colin, Jeanne

2018-05-01

To limit global warming to well below 2 ° most of the IPCC-WGIII future stringent mitigation pathways feature a massive global-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) before the end of the century. The global-scale deployment of NETs like Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) can be hampered by climate constraints that are not taken into account by Integrated assessment models (IAMs) used to produce those pathways. Among the various climate constraints, water scarcity appears as a potential bottleneck for future land-based mitigation strategies and remains largely unexplored. Here, we assess climate constraints relative to water scarcity in response to the global deployment of BECCS. To this end, we confront results from an Earth system model (ESM) and an IAM under an array of 25 stringent mitigation pathways. These pathways are compatible with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and with cumulative carbon emissions ranging from 230 Pg C and 300 Pg C from January 1st onwards. We show that all stylized mitigation pathways studied in this work limit warming below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C by 2100 but all exhibit a temperature overshoot exceeding 2 °C after 2050. According to the IAM, a subset of 17 emission pathways are feasible when evaluated in terms of socio-economic and technological constraints. The ESM however shows that water scarcity would limit the deployment of BECCS in all the mitigation pathways assessed in this work. Our findings suggest that the evolution of the water resources under climate change can exert a significant constraint on BECCS deployment before 2050. In 2100, the BECCS water needs could represent more than 30% of the total precipitation in several regions like Europe or Asia.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

2015-04-01

Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their vulnerability. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6°C by 2050. These upward temperature trends are projected to continue beyond 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. It is concluded that the Overall vulnerability of agriculture to climate change in Jordan is high, where impacts such as drought and increased temperatures and decreased precipitation will be more pronounced. Major implications on rain fed agriculture are possible shorter growing season, increasing moisture and heat stress to field and horticultural crops and eventually low income and food insecurity. There were different impacts among studied communities, which is related to the: economic capability, local knowledge, physical infrastructure, institutional capacity, modern technology used, age group of farmers and diversification of their income.

Modeling global yield growth of major crops under multiple socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, T.; Kim, W.; Zhihong, S.; Nishimori, M.

2016-12-01

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are a key tool in deriving global food security scenarios under climate change. However, it is difficult for GGCMs to reproduce the reported yield growth patterns—rapid growth, yield stagnation and yield collapse. Here, we propose a set of parameterizations for GGCMs to capture the contributions to yield from technological improvements at the national and multi-decadal scales. These include country annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP)-based parameterizations for the nitrogen application rate and crop tolerance to stresses associated with high temperature, low temperature, water deficit and water excess. Using a GGCM combined with the parameterizations, we present global 140-year (1961-2100) yield growth simulations for maize, soybean, rice and wheat under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and no climate change. The model reproduces the major characteristics of reported global and country yield growth patterns over the 1961-2013 period. Under the most rapid developmental pathway SSP5, the simulated global yields for 2091-2100, relative to 2001-2010, are the highest (1.21-1.82 times as high, with variations across the crops), followed by SSP1 (1.14-1.56 times as high), SSP2 (1.12-1.49 times as high), SSP4 (1.08-1.38 times as high) and SSP3 (1.08-1.36 times as high). Future country yield growth varies substantially by income level as well as by crop and by SSP. These yield pathways offer a new baseline for addressing the interdisciplinary questions related to global agricultural development, food security and climate change.

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

2017-06-01

Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

2015-12-01

Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

Improving the Nation's Climate Literacy through the Next Generation Science Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grogan, M.; Niepold, F.; Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Breslyn, W. G.; Carley, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science (2009) presented the information that is deemed important for individuals and communities to know and understand about Earth's climate, impacts of climate change, and approaches to adaptation or mitigation by a group of federal agencies, science and educational partners. These principles guided the development of the NRC Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas (2012) and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS, 2013). National Science Foundation recently funded two partnership projects which support the implementation of the climate component of the NGSS using the Climate Literacy framework. The first project, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), was launched in 2010 as a National Science Digital Library (NSDL) Pathways project. CLEAN's primary effort is to steward a collection of educational resources around energy and climate topics and foster a community that supports learning about climate and energy topics. CLEAN's focus has been to integrate the effective use of the educational resources across all grade levels - with a particular focus on the middle-school through undergraduate levels (grades 6-16) and align the resources with educational standards. The second project, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) program is supported by a Phase II Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) grant awarded to the University System of Maryland (USM) by the National Science Foundation. The MADE-CLEAR project's related goals are to support innovations in interdisciplinary P-20 (preschool through graduate school) climate change education, and develop new pathways for teacher education and professional development leading to expertise in climate change content and pedagogy. Work in Maryland, Delaware (MADE-CLEAR) and other states on the implementation of the NGSS, that will utilize the years of work, the efforts of hundreds of community members and tens of millions of dollars of investment and to increase the nations climate literacy, will be highlighted. We will particularly focus on the partnerships among MADE-CLEAR, NOAA and CLEAN. Climate science and energy are complex topics, with rapidly developing science and technology and the potential for controversy. The NGSS offer educators an opportunity to effectively bring these important subjects into their classrooms across a learning progression spanning K-12 and well beyond. Yet regardless of the pedagogic setting, using a literacy-based approach can provide a sound foundation for building learners' understanding of these topics. In this presentation, we will describe contributions by a group of collaborative projects and organizations to support the NGSS implementation through an integrated Earth system science approach in K-12 education.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

PubMed Central

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

Development of Nested Socioeconomic Storylines for Climate Change IAV Applications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preston, B. L.; Absar, M.

2013-12-01

Socioeconomic scenarios are important for understanding future societal consequences of climate and weather. The global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) represent a new opportunity for coordinated development and application of such scenarios to improve the representation of alternative societal development pathways within climate change consequence analysis. However, capitalizing on this opportunity necessitates bridging the scale disparity between the global SSPs and the regional/local context for which many impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) studies are conducted. To this end, we adopted the Factor, Actor, and Sector methodology to develop a set of qualitative national and sub-national socioeconomic storylines for the United States and U.S. Southeast using the global SSPs as boundary conditions. In particular, our study sought to develop storylines to explore alternative socioeconomic futures for the U.S. Southeast and their implications for adaptive capacity of the region's energy, water, and agricultural sectors. These storylines subsequently serve as the foundation for a range of downstream IAV applications. These include qualitative vulnerability analysis to explore interactions between energy, water, and agriculture in a changing climate; as well as quantitative impact assessment where regional storylines are used to establish modeling parameters within a biophysical crop model. Such methods and applications illustrate potentially useful opportunities for routinizing the use of SSP-based storylines in IAV studies.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Rocklöv, Joacim

2014-01-01

Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome ('horses for courses'). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.

The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Martin, V; Chevalier, V; Ceccato, P; Anyamba, A; De Simone, L; Lubroth, J; de La Rocque, S; Domenech, J

2008-08-01

Climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends. Climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. Extreme weather events might then create the necessary conditions for Rift Valley fever to expand its geographical range northwards and cross the Mediterranean and Arabian seas, with an unexpected impact on the animal and human health of newly affected countries. Strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

PubMed Central

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Global climate change and children's health: threats and strategies for prevention.

PubMed

Sheffield, Perry E; Landrigan, Philip J

2011-03-01

Global climate change will have multiple effects on human health. Vulnerable populations-children, the elderly, and the poor-will be disproportionately affected. We reviewed projected impacts of climate change on children's health, the pathways involved in these effects, and prevention strategies. We assessed primary studies, review articles, and organizational reports. Climate change is increasing the global burden of disease and in the year 2000 was responsible for > 150,000 deaths worldwide. Of this disease burden, 88% fell upon children. Documented health effects include changing ranges of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue; increased diarrheal and respiratory disease; increased morbidity and mortality from extreme weather; changed exposures to toxic chemicals; worsened poverty; food and physical insecurity; and threats to human habitation. Heat-related health effects for which research is emerging include diminished school performance, increased rates of pregnancy complications, and renal effects. Stark variation in these outcomes is evident by geographic region and socioeconomic status, and these impacts will exacerbate health disparities. Prevention strategies to reduce health impacts of climate change include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation through multiple public health interventions. Further quantification of the effects of climate change on children's health is needed globally and also at regional and local levels through enhanced monitoring of children's environmental health and by tracking selected indicators. Climate change preparedness strategies need to be incorporated into public health programs.

AgMIP: New Results from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Regional Integrated Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2014-12-01

AgMIP conducted the first set of comprehensive regional integrated assessments of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia led by researchers from the regions themselves. The project developed new methods integrating climate, crop, livestock and economic models to conduct climate change impact assessments that characterize impacts on smallholder groups. AgMIP projections of climate change impacts on agriculture are more realistic than previous assessments because they take agricultural development into account. Using the best available data and models, the assessments directly evaluated yield, income, and poverty outcomes including the effects of adaptation packages and development pathways. Results show that even with agricultural development, climate change generally will exert negative pressure on yields of smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Without adaptation, climate change leads to increased poverty in some locations in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia compared to a future in which climate change does not occur. Adaptation can significantly improve smallholder farmer responses to climate change. AgMIP expert teams identified improved varieties, sowing practices, fertilizer application, and irrigation applications as prioritized adaptation strategies. These targeted adaptation packages were able to overcome a portion of detrimental impacts but could not compensate completely in many locations. Even in cases where average impact is near zero, vulnerability (i.e., those at risk of loss) can be substantial even when mean impacts are positive.

Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species.

PubMed

Hellmann, Jessica J; Byers, James E; Bierwagen, Britta G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2008-06-01

Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.

Implications of High Temperature and Elevated CO2 on Flowering Time in Plants

PubMed Central

Jagadish, S. V. Krishna; Bahuguna, Rajeev N.; Djanaguiraman, Maduraimuthu; Gamuyao, Rico; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Craufurd, Peter Q.

2016-01-01

Flowering is a crucial determinant for plant reproductive success and seed-set. Increasing temperature and elevated carbon-dioxide (e[CO2]) are key climate change factors that could affect plant fitness and flowering related events. Addressing the effect of these environmental factors on flowering events such as time of day of anthesis (TOA) and flowering time (duration from germination till flowering) is critical to understand the adaptation of plants/crops to changing climate and is the major aim of this review. Increasing ambient temperature is the major climatic factor that advances flowering time in crops and other plants, with a modest effect of e[CO2].Integrated environmental stimuli such as photoperiod, temperature and e[CO2] regulating flowering time is discussed. The critical role of plant tissue temperature influencing TOA is highlighted and crop models need to substitute ambient air temperature with canopy or floral tissue temperature to improve predictions. A complex signaling network of flowering regulation with change in ambient temperature involving different transcription factors (PIF4, PIF5), flowering suppressors (HvODDSOC2, SVP, FLC) and autonomous pathway (FCA, FVE) genes, mainly from Arabidopsis, provides a promising avenue to improve our understanding of the dynamics of flowering time under changing climate. Elevated CO2 mediated changes in tissue sugar status and a direct [CO2]-driven regulatory pathway involving a key flowering gene, MOTHER OF FT AND TFL1 (MFT), are emerging evidence for the role of e[CO2] in flowering time regulation. PMID:27446143

Quantitative analysis of oyster larval proteome provides new insights into the effects of multiple climate change stressors.

PubMed

Dineshram, Ramadoss; Chandramouli, Kondethimmanahalli; Ko, Ginger Wai Kuen; Zhang, Huoming; Qian, Pei-Yuan; Ravasi, Timothy; Thiyagarajan, Vengatesen

2016-06-01

The metamorphosis of planktonic larvae of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) underpins their complex life-history strategy by switching on the molecular machinery required for sessile life and building calcite shells. Metamorphosis becomes a survival bottleneck, which will be pressured by different anthropogenically induced climate change-related variables. Therefore, it is important to understand how metamorphosing larvae interact with emerging climate change stressors. To predict how larvae might be affected in a future ocean, we examined changes in the proteome of metamorphosing larvae under multiple stressors: decreased pH (pH 7.4), increased temperature (30 °C), and reduced salinity (15 psu). Quantitative protein expression profiling using iTRAQ-LC-MS/MS identified more than 1300 proteins. Decreased pH had a negative effect on metamorphosis by down-regulating several proteins involved in energy production, metabolism, and protein synthesis. However, warming switched on these down-regulated pathways at pH 7.4. Under multiple stressors, cell signaling, energy production, growth, and developmental pathways were up-regulated, although metamorphosis was still reduced. Despite the lack of lethal effects, significant physiological responses to both individual and interacting climate change related stressors were observed at proteome level. The metamorphosing larvae of the C. gigas population in the Yellow Sea appear to have adequate phenotypic plasticity at the proteome level to survive in future coastal oceans, but with developmental and physiological costs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global air quality and climate.

PubMed

Fiore, Arlene M; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Prather, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip J; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J; Dalsøren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A; Ginoux, Paul; Horowitz, Larry W; Josse, Béatrice; Lamarque, Jean-François; MacKenzie, Ian A; Nagashima, Tatsuya; O'Connor, Fiona M; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T; Shindell, Drew T; Skeie, Ragnhild B; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang

2012-10-07

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Assessment of climate change in Algeria from 1951 to 2098 using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeroual, Ayoub; Assani, Ali A.; Meddi, Mohamed; Alkama, Ramdane

2018-02-01

Significant changes in regional climates have been observed at the end of the twentieth century, taking place at unprecedented rates. These changes, in turn, lead to changes in global climate zones with pace and amplitude varying from one region to another. Algeria, a country characterized by climate conditions ranging from relatively wet to very dry (desert-like), has also experienced changes in its climate regions, notably in the country's wet region, which represents about 7% of its total surface area, but is home to 75% of its population. In this study, the pace of climate zone changes as it is defined by Koppen-Geiger was analyzed for the period from 1951 to 2098 using climate data from observation and regional climate simulations over Algeria. The ability of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models simulations to reproduce the current observed climate zones and their shifts was first assessed. Future changes over the whole of the twenty-first century were then estimated based on two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Analysis of the shift rate of climate zones from 1951 to 2005 found a gradual but significant expansion of the surface area of the desert zone at an approximate rate of 650 ± 160 km2/year along with the abrupt shrinking, by approximately 30%, at a rate of 1086 ± 270 km2/year, of the warm temperate climate zone surface area. According to projections for the RCP8.5 scenario, the rate of expansion of desert climate will increase in the future (twenty-first century), particularly during the period from 2045 to 2098.

Developing Water Resource Security in a Greenhouse Gas Constrained Context - A Case Study in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; Aghakouchak, A.; Samuelsen, S.

2015-12-01

The onset of drought conditions in regions such as California due to shortfalls in precipitation has brought refreshed attention to the vulnerability of our water supply paradigm to changes in climate patterns. In the face of a changing climate which can exacerbate drought conditions in already dry areas, building resiliency into our water supply infrastructure requires some decoupling of water supply availability from climate behavior through conservation, efficiency, and alternative water supply measures such as desalination and water reuse. The installation of these measures requires varying degrees of direct energy inputs and/or impacts the energy usage of the water supply infrastructure (conveyance, treatment, distribution, wastewater treatment). These impacts have implications for greenhouse gas emissions from direct fuel usage or impacts on the emissions from the electric grid. At the scale that these measures may need to be deployed to secure water supply availability, especially under climate change impacted hydrology, they can potentially pose obstacles for meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable utilization goals. Therefore, the portfolio of these measures must be such that detrimental impacts on greenhouse gas emissions are minimized. This study combines climate data with a water reservoir network model and an electric grid dispatch model for the water-energy system of California to evaluate 1) the different pathways and scale of alternative water resource measures needed to secure water supply availability and 2) the impacts of following these pathways on the ability to meet greenhouse gas and renewable utilization goals. It was discovered that depending on the water supply measure portfolio implemented, impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and renewable utilization can either be beneficial or detrimental, and optimizing the portfolio is more important under climate change conditions due to the scale of measures required.

Projected climate and agronomic implications for corn production in the Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Prasad, Rishi; Gunn, Stephan Kpoti; Rotz, Clarence Alan; Karsten, Heather; Roth, Greg; Buda, Anthony; Stoner, Anne M K

2018-01-01

Corn has been a pillar of American agriculture for decades and continues to receive much attention from the scientific community for its potential to meet the food, feed and fuel needs of a growing human population in a changing climate. By midcentury, global temperature increase is expected to exceed 2°C where local effects on heat, cold and precipitation extremes will vary. The Northeast United States is a major dairy producer, corn consumer, and is cited as the fastest warming region in the contiguous U.S. It is important to understand how key agronomic climate variables affect corn growth and development so that adaptation strategies can be tailored to local climate changes. We analyzed potential local effects of climate change on corn growth and development at three major dairy locations in the Northeast (Syracuse, New York; State College, Pennsylvania and Landisville, Pennsylvania) using downscaled projected climate data (2000-2100) from nine Global Climate Models under two emission pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). Our analysis indicates that corn near the end of the 21st century will experience fewer spring and fall freezes, faster rate of growing degree day accumulation with a reduction in time required to reach maturity, greater frequencies of daily high temperature ≥35°C during key growth stages such as silking-anthesis and greater water deficit during reproductive (R1-R6) stages. These agronomic anomalies differ between the three locations, illustrating varying impacts of climate change in the more northern regions vs. the southern regions of the Northeast. Management strategies such as shifting the planting dates based on last spring freeze and irrigation during the greatest water deficit stages (R1-R6) will partially offset the projected increase in heat and drought stress. Future research should focus on understanding the effects of global warming at local levels and determining adaptation strategies that meet local needs.

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

2014-05-01

Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water were not limiting.

Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

2017-10-01

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of ocean acidification and oxygen to the uncertainty in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Wang, Shuangjing; Zheng, Meidi; Zhang, Han

2014-05-01

Due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate change, the global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. Among these, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would also affect the projection of oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To investigate this issue, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform a set of simulations, including that which involves no radiative effect of atmospheric CO2 and those which involve CO2-induced climate change with climate sensitivity varying from 0.5 °C to 4.5 °C. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is prescribed to follow RCP 8.5 pathway and its extensions. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. It is found that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

Considering Students' Out-of-School Lives and Values in Designing Learning Environments for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.

2012-12-01

What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives. It underscores the need to understand and support students as they interact with climate change across the contexts of their lives.

Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-01-01

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment.

Fuelling the future: microbial engineering for the production of sustainable biofuels.

PubMed

Liao, James C; Mi, Luo; Pontrelli, Sammy; Luo, Shanshan

2016-04-01

Global climate change linked to the accumulation of greenhouse gases has caused concerns regarding the use of fossil fuels as the major energy source. To mitigate climate change while keeping energy supply sustainable, one solution is to rely on the ability of microorganisms to use renewable resources for biofuel synthesis. In this Review, we discuss how microorganisms can be explored for the production of next-generation biofuels, based on the ability of bacteria and fungi to use lignocellulose; through direct CO2 conversion by microalgae; using lithoautotrophs driven by solar electricity; or through the capacity of microorganisms to use methane generated from landfill. Furthermore, we discuss how to direct these substrates to the biosynthetic pathways of various fuel compounds and how to optimize biofuel production by engineering fuel pathways and central metabolism.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle.

PubMed

Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Ciais, Philippe; Frank, Dorothea; Mahecha, Miguel D; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Zscheischler, Jakob; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Frank, David C; Papale, Dario; Rammig, Anja; Smith, Pete; Thonicke, Kirsten; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin

2013-08-15

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

2016-08-01

Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Smith, Matthew R; Guth, Sarah; Golden, Christopher D; Vaitla, Bapu; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Dangour, Alan D; Huybers, Peter

2017-03-20

Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Novel stable isotope laser spectrometry elucidates changing mechanisms of CH4 production and consumption across a climate change sequence in an arctic wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalley, C. K.; Wehr, R.; Crill, P. M.; Chanton, J.; Hodgkins, S. B.; Nelson, D. D.; McManus, J. B.; Zahniser, M. S.; Rich, V.; Tyson, G.; Mondav, R.; Frolking, S.; Li, C.; Saleska, S. R.

2011-12-01

Methane flux from high latitude wetlands is both a critical component of the global CH4 budget, and highly sensitive to global climate change, with expected increases in emissions as permafrost thaws. Gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms driving changing CH4 production and consumption dynamics under permafrost thaw, however, limit our ability to predict the magnitude of this response under future climate conditions. To address these gaps, we quantified the isotopic composition of carbon gas fluxes (δ13C of CH4 and CO2) from a high latitude (68° N) wetland in Sweden (Stordalen Mire) to partition net CH4 emissions into its component parts, methanogenesis (including both acetoclastic, and CO2-reductive pathways) and methanotrophy (which consumes CH4 primarily via aerobic metabolism). We used newly developed quantum cascade laser technology, linked to automated chambers, to quantify isotopes at high frequency. Our measurements across a permafrost thaw gradient, going from permafrost-dominated, well-drained palsas to intermediate permafrost sites dominated by Sphagnum spp. to wet sites with no underlying permafrost, dominated by Eriophorum angustifolium, show both large increases in productivity and CH4 emissions as well as shifts in the CH4 production pathway. Across this permafrost thaw gradient the isotopic composition of CH4 becomes 13C enriched, due to increased acetoclastic CH4 production. While the palsa sites have no detectable CH4 emissions, fluxes in the Sphagnum site have an average isotopic composition of -79%, a value indicative of CH4 production dominated by CO2 reduction, in contrast the isotopic composition of CH4 produced in the Eriophorum sites ranged from -71 to -57%, showing increased CH4 production via the acetate pathway. We also observed an increase in acetoclastic methanogenesis as the growing season progressed. Together, these initial results suggest that thaw induced changes in hydrology and plant community composition increase peat lability, stimulating acetate fermentation and yielding increased methane emissions. We conclude that the biological controls on metabolic pathways of methanogenesis, though poorly represented in most ecosystem models, may nonetheless be important, in interaction with permafrost thaw dynamics, in determining future CH4 emissions under changing climate.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

PubMed

Boxall, Alistair B A; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D; Haygarth, Philip M; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M H; Williams, Richard J

2009-04-01

Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.

Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.

PubMed

Herrero, M; Addison, J; Bedelian, C; Carabine, E; Havlík, P; Henderson, B; Van De Steeg, J; Thornton, P K

2016-11-01

The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time profiles that stabilise at 1.5 and 2.0 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Yang, Hui; Harper, Anna; Cox, Peter M.; Gedney, Nicola; Burke, Eleanor J.; Lowe, Jason A.; Hayman, Garry; Collins, William J.; Smith, Stephen M.; Comyn-Platt, Edward

2017-07-01

The meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2015 committed parties at the convention to hold the rise in global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. It also committed the parties to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C. This leads to two key questions. First, what extent of emissions reduction will achieve either target? Second, what is the benefit of the reduced climate impacts from keeping warming at or below 1.5 °C? To provide answers, climate model simulations need to follow trajectories consistent with these global temperature limits. It is useful to operate models in an inverse mode to make model-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration pathways consistent with the prescribed temperature profiles. Further inversion derives related emissions pathways for these concentrations. For this to happen, and to enable climate research centres to compare GHG concentrations and emissions estimates, common temperature trajectory scenarios are required. Here we define algebraic curves that asymptote to a stabilised limit, while also matching the magnitude and gradient of recent warming levels. The curves are deliberately parameter-sparse, needing the prescription of just two parameters plus the final temperature. Yet despite this simplicity, they can allow for temperature overshoot and for generational changes, for which more effort to decelerate warming change needs to be made by future generations. The curves capture temperature profiles from the existing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) scenario projections by a range of different Earth system models (ESMs), which have warming amounts towards the lower levels of those that society is discussing.

Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico

PubMed Central

Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-01-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986–1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture. PMID:26692890

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

PubMed Central

Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder‐identified decision‐critical metrics are examined: a basin‐wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade‐offs emerge between intrabasin and basin‐wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long‐term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision‐making under deep uncertainty. PMID:29706676

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

Care pathway, towards the establishment of tailored funding: Reasons and criteria for success.

PubMed

Emery, Grégory; Le Fur, Camille; Epis-de-Fleurian, Anne-Aurélie; Josseran, Anne

2018-02-01

Care pathways are often at the forefront of political thinking about health care practices in France without ever finding a durable means for their extension. Closely linked to funding of healthcare system, they have, once again, been the object of so many economical discussions in 2017, as part of a more optimistic climate of governance which is therefore more open to change. Our changing system, the development and increasingly chronic nature of diseases, the scale of technological breakthroughs, these are all factors driving this topic forward. The object of this work, after a necessary study of the semantics of the term "pathway" and even "funding", was to identify all prerequisites and good practices for the stakeholders to develop a pilot pathway and then its relevant implementation in France. To do so, the members of the Round Table have relied on the presentation of examples of care pathways in order to identify triggers to a progressive, adapted extension to the whole territory. The group has identified key elements and priorities for the establishment of public funding beyond existing funding to incentive team work, particularly in the case of treatment rupture points and/or when they have diverging interests. Finally, creating a climate of confidence among patients, professionals, hospitals, the ARS, payers and manufacturers in handling change management will become the key challenges of the implementation of future pathways. Copyright © 2018 Société française de pharmacologie et de thérapeutique. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Climate Voyager: An Iteratively Built Information and Visualization Tool for At-Risk Climate Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Lascurain, A.; Aldridge, H. D.; Davis, C.

2016-12-01

Climate Voyager provides an innovative way to visualize both large-scale and local climate change projections using a three-map layout and time series plot. This product includes a suite of tools designed to assist with climate risk and opportunity assessments, including changes in average seasonal conditions and the capability to evaluate a variety of different decision-relevant thresholds (e.g. changes in extreme temperature occurrence). Each tool summarizes output from 20 downscaled global climate models and contains a historical average for comparison with the spread of projected future outcomes. The Climate Voyager website is interactive, allowing users to explore both regional and location-specific guidance for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and four future 20-year time periods. By presenting climate model projections and measures of uncertainty of specific parameters beyond just annual temperatures and precipitation, Climate Voyager can help a wide variety of decision makers plan for climate changes that may affect them. We present a case study in which a new module was developed within Climate Voyager for use by Tribes and native communities in the eastern U.S. to help make informed resource decisions. In this first attempt, Ramps (Allium tricoccum), a plant species of great cultural significance, was incorporated through consultation with the tribal organization. We will also discuss the process of engagement employed with end-users and the potential to make the Climate Voyager interface an iterative, co-produced process to enhance the usability of climate model information for adaptation planning.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

2018-06-14

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species.

PubMed

Rahel, Frank J; Olden, Julian D

2008-06-01

Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

PubMed Central

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Lee, Xuhui; Xiao, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Schultz, Natalie; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Lei

2018-06-01

Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16% by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth's surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential, Attainable, and Actual Wheat Yield in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, K.; Linde, E.; Kakani, V. G.; Alderman, P. D.; Brunson, D.; Ochsner, T. E.; Carver, B.

2017-12-01

Gradually developing climatic and weather anomalies due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration can pose threat to farmers and resource managers. This study was aimed at investigating the effects of climate change on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 6.0 and 8.5 using downscaled climate projections from different models and their ensembles. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation for, four General Circulation Models (MRIOC5, MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSRIO-Mk3.6.0), ensemble of four models and ensemble of 17 GCMs, at 800 m resolution, were developed for two RCPs using Marksim. We describe a methodology for rapid synthesis of GCM-based, spatially explicit, high resolution future weather data inputs for the DSSAT crop model, for cropland area across wheat growing regions of Oklahoma for the future period 2040-2060. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on potential, attainable, and actual winter wheat yield in Oklahoma is discussed.

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

(Climate) Change in young people's minds - From categories towards interconnections between the anthroposphere and natural sphere.

PubMed

Körfgen, Annemarie; Keller, Lars; Kuthe, Alina; Oberrauch, Anna; Stötter, Hans

2017-02-15

The grand challenges of the 21st century will increasingly require societies to reconsider the pathways taken thus far. Engagement with climate change is of ever-growing importance to young people. They will be confronted with the effects of climate change throughout their entire lives and, as future decision-makers, they will vitally shape societal developments. Education will thus play a crucial role in the transformation to a sustainable society. In terms of awareness-raising, an important first step in preparing young people for the challenges of the 21st century is to understand what content is connected with climate change. As complex challenges, such as climate change, demand ways of thinking that go beyond categories, interconnections between the anthroposphere and the natural sphere have to be taken into consideration. This study provides an insight into the questions and topics young people develop whilst becoming involved in climate change in an in-school learning setting and in an out-of-school learning setting (a high mountain environment). The analysis focuses on the question of in which spheres students predominantly make their thematic choices and how far the interconnections between different spheres are formed. Our results show that the choice of the learning setting influences the topics students connect with climate change. Interconnections between sub-spheres of the anthroposphere and natural sphere are made only occasionally. These findings serve as a basis for reconsidering the content and foundation of climate change communication with young people. We recommend that climate change educational programmes should include phases that allow the following: a) involvement with climate change issues related to single spheres in the first phase, and b) consideration of the interconnections between spheres when becoming involved with climate change issues in the second phase. As the educational setting can considerably influence the focus of the learning process, it should be chosen thoughtfully. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expert Elicitations of 2100 Emission of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Emily; Bosetti, Valentina; Budescu, David; Keller, Klaus; van Vuuren, Detlef

2017-04-01

Emission scenarios such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used intensively for climate research (e.g. climate change projections) and policy analysis. While the range of these scenarios provides an indication of uncertainty, these scenarios are typically not associated with probability values. Some studies (e.g. Vuuren et al, 2007; Gillingham et al., 2015) took a different approach associating baseline emission pathways (conditionally) with probability distributions. This paper summarizes three studies where climate change experts were asked to conduct pair-wise comparisons of possible ranges of 2100 greenhouse gas emissions and rate the relative likelihood of the ranges. The elicitation was performed under two sets of assumptions: 1) a situation where no climate policies are introduced beyond the ones already in place (baseline scenario), and 2) a situation in which countries have ratified the voluntary policies in line with the long term target embedded in the 2015 Paris Agreement. These indirect relative judgments were used to construct subjective cumulative distribution functions. We show that by using a ratio scaling method that invokes relative likelihoods of scenarios, a subjective probability distribution can be derived for each expert that expresses their beliefs in the projected greenhouse gas emissions range in 2100. This method is shown to elicit stable estimates that require minimal adjustment and is relatively invariant to the partition of the domain of interest. Experts also rated the method as being easy and intuitive to use. We also report results of a study that allowed participants to choose their own ranges of greenhouse gas emissions to remove potential anchoring bias. We discuss the implications of the use of this method for facilitating comparison and communication of beliefs among diverse users of climate science research.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less

Climate change and health in Earth's future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

2014-02-01

Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

Temperature Changes in the United States. Chapter 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vose, R. S.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

Determination of the Changes of Drought Occurrence in Turkey Using Regional Climate Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibel Saygili, Fatma; Tufan Turp, M.; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

As a consequence of the negative impacts of climate change, Turkey, being a country in the Mediterranean Basin, is under a serious risk of increased drought conditions. In this study, it is aimed to determine and compare the spatial distributions of climatological drought probabilities for Turkey. For this purpose, by making use of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology are downscaled to 50km for Turkey. To make the future projection over Turkey for the period of 2071-2100 with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, the worst case emission pathway RCP8.5 is used. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values are computed and classified in accordance with the seven classifications of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, the spatial distribution maps showing the changes in drought probabilities over Turkey are obtained in order to see the impact of climate change on Turkey's drought patterns.

More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohland, Jan; Reyers, Mark; Weber, Juliane; Witthaut, Dirk

2017-11-01

Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust but modest increase (up to 7 %) of backup energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls. Individual country contributions to European generation shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr-1, reflecting an increase of up to 4 %. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on circulation weather types.

Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

PubMed

Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

2014-09-01

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon.

PubMed

Crozier, L G; Hendry, A P; Lawson, P W; Quinn, T P; Mantua, N J; Battin, J; Shaw, R G; Huey, R B

2008-05-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

PubMed Central

Crozier, L G; Hendry, A P; Lawson, P W; Quinn, T P; Mantua, N J; Battin, J; Shaw, R G; Huey, R B

2008-01-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change. PMID:25567630

Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture

PubMed Central

Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D.; Haygarth, Philip M.; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R. Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S.; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A.; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B.; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M.H.; Williams, Richard J.

2009-01-01

Objective Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes. PMID:19440487

Development of the virtual research environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of global climate change impacts on the regional environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Fazliev, Alexander

2017-04-01

Description and the first results of the Russian Science Foundation project "Virtual computational information environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of the impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of a selected region" is presented. The project is aimed at development of an Internet-accessible computation and information environment providing unskilled in numerical modelling and software design specialists, decision-makers and stakeholders with reliable and easy-used tools for in-depth statistical analysis of climatic characteristics, and instruments for detailed analysis, assessment and prediction of impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of the targeted region. In the framework of the project, approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platform of the Russian leading institution involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research laboratory focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies. VRE under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed information and computing system CLIMATE (http://climate.scert.ru/), which is widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The Project includes several major directions of research listed below. 1. Preparation of geo-referenced data sets, describing the dynamics of the current and possible future climate and environmental changes in detail. 2. Improvement of methods of analysis of climate change. 3. Enhancing the functionality of the VRE prototype in order to create a convenient and reliable tool for the study of regional social, economic and political consequences of climate change. 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the VRE prototype, its validation, preparation of applicable detailed description of climate change in Western Siberia, and dissemination of the Project results. Results of the first stage of the Project implementation are presented. This work is supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No16-19-10257.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

PubMed

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

2012-05-27

Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Mineralogical Indicators for Climate Change on Mars: Evidence from Landed Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ming, D. W.; Morris, R. V.; Clark, B. C.

2015-01-01

Mineralogical and geochemical data returned by a flotilla of Mars orbiters and landers over the past 10 years has substantially enhanced our understanding on the evolution of the atmosphere and climate. Instruments onboard Mars Express and MRO discovered widespread deposits of phyllosilicates that formed during the Noachian followed by formation of sulfates into the Hesperian. The formation of extensive valley networks along with these layered deposits of phyllosilicates and sulfates during the late Noachian/ early Hesperian indicate a past martian climate that was capable of maintaining liquid water at the surface. The planet's climate changed substantially after these early 'episodes' of water and very little aqueous alteration has occurred over the past 3.5 Gyrs . A key to understanding Mars past climate is to identify, characterize, and age date secondary minerals that have formed by reaction with volatile compounds, e.g., H2O, CO2, SO2. Here, we summarize the detection of secondary minerals at the four landing sites visited over the past 10 years. We also provide potential pathways for their formation and implications for past climate change on Mars.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

2012-04-01

The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

PubMed Central

Semenza, Jan C.; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

2011-01-01

The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

Future possible crop yield scenarios under multiple SSP and RCP scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Yokozawa, M.; Nishimori, M.; Okada, M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the effect of future climate change on global crop yields is one of the most important tasks for global food security. Future crop yields would be influenced by climatic factors such as the changes of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. On the other hand, the effect of the changes of agricultural technologies such as crop varieties, pesticide and fertilizer input on crop yields have large uncertainty. However, not much is available on the contribution ratio of each factor under the future climate change scenario. We estimated the future global yields of four major crops (maize, soybean, rice and wheat) under three Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For this purpose, firstly, we estimated a parameter of a process based model (PRYSBI2) using a Bayesian method for each 1.125 degree spatial grid. The model parameter is relevant to the agricultural technology (we call "technological parameter" here after). Then, we analyzed the relationship between the values of technological parameter and GDP values. We found that the estimated values of the technological parameter were positively correlated with the GDP. Using the estimated relationship, we predicted future crop yield during 2020 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios and RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The estimated crop yields were different among SSP scenarios. However, we found that the yield difference attributable to SSPs were smaller than those attributable to CO2 fertilization effects and climate change. Particularly, the estimated effect of the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on global yields was more than four times larger than that of GDP for C3 crops.

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: Deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stagg, Camille L.; Schoolmaster, Donald; Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: 1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, 2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and 3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a drought or a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal wetlands. Here we identify three causal mechanisms that can reconcile disparities between long-term and short-term salinity impacts on organic matter decomposition.

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands.

PubMed

Stagg, Camille L; Schoolmaster, Donald R; Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H

2017-08-01

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate-change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: (1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, (2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and (3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to drought and sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal wetlands. Here, we identify three causal mechanisms that can reconcile disparities between long-term and short-term salinity impacts on organic matter decomposition. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

2012-04-01

Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising incomes. The scale of the impacts and their direction depend to some extent on (re)insurer responses to the challenges of climate change. We outline five actions that could pave the way for future opportunities in the industry. Authors of the paper: Ranger, Nicola (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK) and Surminski, Swenja (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK)

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India

PubMed Central

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future. PMID:28753605

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India.

PubMed

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future.

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to themore » GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.« less

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

2011-12-01

In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

Assessing recent and near-future changes in Southern California's groundwater storage from the perspective of regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Rother, D.

2017-12-01

Current climate change assessments project an increase in temperature throughout the western U.S. over the next century, while precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest. These assessments are based mainly on coarse spatial resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations, which do not include groundwater (soil and aquifer) storage projections. However, water availability is a regionally variable resource and climate change impacts on groundwater distribution will probably differ regionally across the southwestern U.S. We have implemented a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-aquifer regional modelling system (WRF/SSiB2/SIMGM) to generate recent (2005-2017) and near-future (2018-2030) high-resolution groundwater projections for Southern California. These projections are obtained by dynamic downscaling data from the Global Operation Analysis (recent) and the NCAR Community Earth System Model CMIP5 global projections (near future), which supported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. Near-future simulations include three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios namely, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The model can reasonably simulate the recent changes in Southern California's groundwater as indicated by a comparison to terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment dataset. In particular, the 2011-2017 drought is simulated well with total groundwater storages declining throughout the period, especially along the western portion of the domain, which includes the high-populated areas of western Los Angeles, San Diego, Ventura and Orange counties. In general, the near-future simulations show a decline in groundwater storage for the region. The largest changes are observed with the RCP8.5 emission pathway, towards to southeastern tier of the study area. In addition to groundwater, this downscaling experiment also generates high-resolution precipitation and temperature estimates, which can help policy makers in the development of strategies to alleviate potential water resource deficiencies in California in the near future.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

PubMed

Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

2016-01-01

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

PubMed Central

Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara

2016-01-01

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded. PMID:27547522

Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO2 concentrations: A review.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Choi, Hayoung; Kim, Ho

2018-05-01

The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO 2 concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO 2 concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physiological-based modelling of marine fish early life stages provides process knowledge on climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, M. A.

2016-02-01

Gaining a cause-and-effect understanding of climate-driven changes in marine fish populations at appropriate spatial scales is important for providing robust advice for ecosystem-based fisheries management. Coupling long-term, retrospective analyses and 3-d biophysical, individual-based models (IBMs) shows great potential to reveal mechanism underlying historical changes and to project future changes in marine fishes. IBMs created for marine fish early life stages integrate organismal-level physiological responses and climate-driven changes in marine habitats (from ocean physics to lower trophic level productivity) to test and reveal processes affecting marine fish recruitment. Case studies are provided for hindcasts and future (A1 and B2 projection) simulations performed on some of the most ecologically- and commercially-important pelagic and demersal fishes in the North Sea including European anchovy, Atlantic herring, European sprat and Atlantic cod. We discuss the utility of coupling biophysical IBMs to size-spectrum models to better project indirect (trophodynamic) pathways of climate influence on the early life stages of these and other fishes. Opportunities and challenges are discussed regarding the ability of these physiological-based tools to capture climate-driven changes in living marine resources and food web dynamics of shelf seas.

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yator, J. J.

2016-12-01

This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely to increase by between 8.56% and 21% by the year 2100. There exists a need for policies that safeguard agriculture against the adverse effects of climate change to alleviate food insecurity in Kenya. Therefore, it is important that climate change mitigation is given much more priority in policy planning and also implementation.

Addressing climate and energy misconceptions - teaching tools offered by the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, A. U.; Ledley, T. S.; Kirk, K. B.; Grogan, M.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Buhr, S. M.; Manduca, C. A.; Fox, S.; Niepold, F.; Howell, C.; Lynds, S. E.

2011-12-01

Despite a prevalence of peer-reviewed scientific research and high-level reports by intergovernmental agencies (e.g., IPCC) that document changes in our climate and consequences for human societies, the public discourse regards these topics as controversial and sensitive. The chasm between scientific-based understanding of climate systems and public understanding can most easily be addressed via high quality, science-based education on these topics. Well-trained and confident educators are required to provide this education. However, climate science and energy awareness are complex topics that are rapidly evolving and have a great potential for controversy. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary nature of climate science further increases the difficulty for teachers to stay abreast of the science and the policy. Research has shown that students and educators alike hold misconceptions about the climate system in general and the causes and effects of climate change in particular. The NSF-funded CLEAN Pathway (http://cleanet.org) as part of the National Science Digital Library (http://www.nsdl.org) strives to address these needs and help educators address misconceptions by providing high quality learning resources and professional development opportunities to support educators of grade levels 6 through 16. The materials focus on teaching climate science and energy use. The scope and framework of the CLEAN Pathway is defined by the Essential Principles of Climate Science (CCSP, 2009) and the Energy Literacy Principles recently developed by the Department of Energy. Following this literacy-based approach, CLEAN helps with developing mental models to address misconceptions around climate science and energy awareness through a number of different avenues. These are: 1) Professional development opportunities for educators - interactive webinars for secondary teachers and virtual workshops for college faculty, 2) A collection of scientifically and pedagogically reviewed, high-quality learning resources on climate and energy topics, 3) Detailed information on effective approaches for teaching climate and energy science for a range of grade levels, and 4) A community support forum (http://iceeonline.org, coordinated by a partner project - Inspiring Climate Education Excellence, ICEE), where educators can exchange information and share advice regarding climate and energy education. In this presentation we focus on our experience coordinating professional development opportunities as well as the "Teaching about Climate and Energy" web pages that are offered through the CLEAN Pathway to show-case how misconceptions can be addressed by educators when teaching or learning about climate and energy topics. Providing educators with a robust foundation of topical knowledge, guiding them through common misconceptions and providing them with a collection of well-vetted learning resources is the approach offered by CLEAN to address student misconceptions of climate and energy topics.

Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hanqing; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Fan, Dongli; Shi, Runhe; Niu, Yilong; He, Xiaogang; Chen, Maosi

2017-09-01

Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years' (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating temperature-induced load but also by lessening water- and temperature-based performance constraints. Policy impacts are nuanced and region-specific, and this analysis underscores the importance of climate mitigation policy to regional electricity system planning decisions.

A Community Perspective on the Effects of Climate Change on Species Distributions in the Boreal Forest of the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; DeLuca, W. V.; Duclos, T. R.; Foster, J. R.; Siren, A. P.

2016-12-01

The way that climate change will impact species ranges through habitat change and modify species interactions is not well enough understood. We took a community view of the climate-vulnerable, biologically-important spruce-fir forest ecosystem of the northeastern U.S., examining if and how species are responding to warming and changing precipitation patterns. We examined how fluctuations in temperature and snowpack influence distributional shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients; for example, milder winter conditions may allow generalist carnivores such as bobcats to access boreal forest habitat, increasing direct and indirect competition with Canada lynx and American marten for prey. In another example of climate-driven predation shifts, upslope shifts of American red squirrels may increase predation rates on vulnerable montane songbirds. We combined data from weather stations with model-based high resolution data to obtain information on historical and present climate variables. We forecasted spruce-fir forest extent using landscape and ecosystem models under a combination of global circulation model projections and representative concentration pathways for the northern Appalachians. Presence and abundance data from animal surveys were used to build occupancy models to assess the habitat, climate, and species relationships. Species responded individually with geographic variation in response within and across species. Some species closely tracked climate changes, whereas others showed no response, or even responses such as shifts southward that were counter to what would be expected. For example, although low elevation boreal bird species showed evidence of expanding upslope, most high elevation species expanded downslope. This work highlights the need to take a mechanistic perspective of species responses to climate change and avoid generalizations of simple shifts northward and upward. Understanding how climate change affects community dynamics will improve predictions of how individual species will respond to climate change. These predictions then provide information about how distributional shifts will occur in a biologically critical ecosystem and if there will be climate change refugia they can target for management.

Assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to climate variability to improve the usability of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts in Europe - a preliminary concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, Daniel

2015-04-01

Climate variability poses major challenges for decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors. Seasonal to decadal (S2D) forecasts provide potential value for management decisions especially in the context of climate change where information from present or past climatology loses significance. However, usable and decision-relevant tailored climate forecasts are still sparse for Europe and successful examples of application require elaborate and individual producer-user interaction. The assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities to critical climate conditions at specific temporal scale will be a great step forward to increase the usability and efficiency of climate forecasts. A concept for a sector-specific vulnerability assessment (VA) to climate variability is presented. The focus of this VA is on the provision of usable vulnerability information which can be directly incorporated in decision-making processes. This is done by developing sector-specific climate-impact-decision-pathways and the identification of their specific time frames using data from both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The structure of common VA's for climate change related issues is adopted which envisages the determination of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. However, the application of the common vulnerability components within the context of climate service application poses some fundamental considerations: Exposure - the effect of climate events on the system of concern may be modified and delayed due to interconnected systems (e.g. catchment). The critical time-frame of a climate event or event sequence is dependent on system-internal thresholds and initial conditions. But also on decision-making processes which require specific lead times of climate information to initiate respective coping measures. Sensitivity - in organizational systems climate may pose only one of many factors relevant for decision making. The scope of "sensitivity" in this concept comprises both the potential physical response of the system of concern as well as the criticality of climate-related decision-making processes. Coping capacity - in an operational context coping capacity can only reduce vulnerability if it can be applied purposeful. With respect to climate vulnerabilities this refers to the availability of suitable, usable and skillful climate information. The focus for this concept is on existing S2D climate service products and their match with user needs. The outputs of the VA are climate-impact-decision-pathways which characterize critical climate conditions, estimate the role of climate in decision-making processes and evaluate the availability and potential usability of S2D climate forecast products. A classification scheme is developed for each component of the impact-pathway to assess its specific significance. The systemic character of these schemes enables a broad application of this VA across sectors where quantitative data is limited. This concept is developed and will be tested within the context of the EU-FP7 project "European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales" EUPORIAS.

Study of Regional Downscaled Climate and Air Quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J.; Lamarque, J.; Lam, Y.; Huang, K.

2011-12-01

Due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global and regional climate patterns have significantly changed. Climate change has exerted strong impact on ecosystem, air quality and human life. The global model Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.0) was used to predict future climate and chemistry under projected emission scenarios. Two new emission scenarios, Representative Community Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used in this study for climate and chemistry simulations. The projected global mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.7 degree Celcius for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050s, respectively. In order to take advantage of local detailed topography, land use data and conduct local climate impact on air quality, we downscaled CESM outputs to 4 km by 4 km Eastern US domain using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). The evaluations between regional model outputs and global model outputs, regional model outputs and observational data were conducted to verify the downscaled methodology. Future climate change and air quality impact were also examined on a 4 km by 4 km high resolution scale.

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Ebi, Kristie L; Culp, Derrin; Redlener, Irwin

2015-08-11

The impacts of climate change on human health have been documented globally and in the United States. Numerous studies project greater morbidity and mortality as a result of extreme weather events and other climate-sensitive hazards. Public health impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast may be severe as the region is expected to experience increases in extreme temperatures, sea level rise, and possibly fewer but more intense hurricanes. Through myriad pathways, climate change is likely to make the Gulf Coast less hospitable and more dangerous for its residents, and may prompt substantial migration from and into the region. Public health impacts may be further exacerbated by the concentration of people and infrastructure, as well as the region's coastal geography. Vulnerable populations, including the very young, elderly, and socioeconomically disadvantaged may face particularly high threats to their health and well-being. This paper provides an overview of potential public health impacts of climate variability and change on the Gulf Coast, with a focus on the region's unique vulnerabilities, and outlines recommendations for improving the region's ability to minimize the impacts of climate-sensitive hazards. Public health adaptation aimed at improving individual, public health system, and infrastructure resilience is urgently needed to meet the challenges climate change may pose to the Gulf Coast in the coming decades.

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Wanmo; Minor, Emily S.; Lee, Dowon; Park, Chan-Ryul

2016-02-01

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.

Contemplating the Future: Building Student Resilience in Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change research has largely focused on the biophysical, economic, and political aspects of the phenomenon, its projected impacts, and the possibilities for adaptation (Carey et al. 2014; Castree et al. 2014). In the classroom, too, climate change is generally presented as a scientific, technological, political, and economic challenge. However, defining climate change as physical challenge, divorced from its cultural causes and responses, forecloses some pathways of inquiry and limits the possibilities for adaptation (Adger et al. 2013). Recent perspectives by the environmental historian Mark Carey and colleagues (2014) and by the geographer Noel Castree and colleagues (2014) contend that ethnographic, narrative, social scientific, and humanistic insights are necessary additions to the climate change policy process and can contribute to deliberate, resilient responses to climate change. Among the humanistic insights needed are strategies and practices to maintain fortitude and persistence in the midst of dispiriting ecological trends. Students facing the "gloom and doom" of climate change data in environmental studies courses can experience negative states of mind such as denial, despair, burnout, and grief. Emerging research, however, demonstrates how contemplative practice can shift consciousness and promote resilience. Contemplative practices are those that consciously direct calm, focused attention. Such practices can build internal resilience, by promoting a greater sense of calm and well-being, decreasing stress, and sharpening focus and concentration. In addition, contemplative practices improve relationships with other people, through increasing compassion and flexibility in thinking. They also strengthen relationships with the surrounding world by increasing our ability to question, explore, and cope with rapid change and complexity. This presentation provides a context for incorporating contemplative practices, including mindfulness exercises, creative expression, and meditation, into the environmental studies classroom, and discusses how these practices can cultivate well-being and resilience in the face of climate change.

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meijl, Hans; Havlik, Petr; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Stehfest, Elke; Witzke, Peter; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Dijk, Michiel; Doelman, Jonathan; Fellmann, Thomas; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F. L.; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van Zeist, Willem-Jan

2018-06-01

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Dethloff, Klaus; Francis, Jennifer A.; Hall, Richard J.; Hanna, Edward; Kim, Seong-Joong; Screen, James A.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Vihma, Timo

2016-11-01

Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events in northern mid-latitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation precludes easy answers. The topic is a major science challenge, as continued Arctic temperature increases are an inevitable aspect of anthropogenic climate change. We propose a perspective that rejects simple cause-and-effect pathways and notes diagnostic challenges in interpreting atmospheric dynamics. We present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages. We emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

PubMed Central

Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

2005-01-01

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

European freshwater vulnerability under high rates of global warming and plausible socio-economic narratives.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Grillakis, Manolis; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Recent developments could postpone climate actions in the frame of the global climate deal of the Paris Agreement, making higher-end global warming increasingly plausible. Although not clear in the COP21 water security is fundamental to achieving low-carbon ambitions, thus climate and water policies are closely related. The projection of the relationship between global warming, water availability and water stress through their complex interactions among different sectors, along with the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation actions, is a rather challenging task under the prism of climate change. Here we try to develop and apply a simple, transparent conceptual framework describing European vulnerability to hydrological drought of current hydro-climatic and socioeconomic status as well as projected vulnerability at specific levels of global warming (1.5oC, 2oC and 4oC) following highly rates of climatic change (RCP8.5) and considering different levels of adaptation associated to specific socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5).

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Collective violence caused by climate change and how it threatens health and human rights.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W

2014-06-14

The weight of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence. This evidence arises from individual studies over wide ranges of time and geographic location, and from two extensive meta-analyses. Complex pathways that underlie this association are not fully understood; however, increased ambient temperatures and extremes of rainfall, with their resultant adverse impacts on the environment and risk factors for violence, appear to play key roles. Collective violence due to climate change poses serious threats to health and human rights, including by causing morbidity and mortality directly and also indirectly by damage to the health-supporting infrastructure of society, forcing people to migrate from their homes and communities, damaging the environment, and diverting human and financial resources. This paper also briefly addresses issues for future research on the relationship between climate change and collective violence, the prevention of collective violence due to climate change, and States' obligations to protect human rights, to prevent collective violence, and to promote and support measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Levy and Sidel. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

PubMed

Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

2017-11-01

Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential impact of climate change on the Intra-Americas Sea: Part 2. Implications for Atlantic bluefin tuna and skipjack tuna adult and larval habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, Barbara A.; Liu, Yanyun; Lee, Sang-Ki; Lamkin, John T.; Roffer, Mitchell A.; Muller-Karger, Frank; Walter, John F., III

2015-08-01

Increasing water temperatures due to climate change will likely have significant impacts on distributions and life histories of Atlantic tunas. In this study, we combined predictive habitat models with a downscaled climate model to examine potential impacts on adults and larvae of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS). An additional downscaled model covering the 20th century was used to compare habitat fluctuations from natural variability to predicted future changes under two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (medium-low) and RCP 8.5 (high). Results showed marked temperature-induced habitat losses for both adult and larval bluefin tuna on their northern Gulf of Mexico spawning grounds. In contrast, habitat suitability for skipjack tuna increased as temperatures warmed. Model error was highest for the two skipjack tuna models, particularly at higher temperatures. This work suggests that influences of climate change on highly migratory Atlantic tuna species are likely to be substantial, but strongly species-specific. While impacts on fish populations remain uncertain, these changes in habitat suitability will likely alter the spatial and temporal availability of species to fishing fleets, and challenge equilibrium assumptions of environmental stability, upon which fisheries management benchmarks are based.

Land use impacts of low-carbon energy system transition - the case of UK bioenergy deployment under the Carbon Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Sobral Mourao, Z.; Lupton, R.; Skelton, S.

2015-12-01

The UK Department of Energy and Climate Change has developed four low-carbon energy transition pathways - the Carbon Plan - towards achieving the legally binding 80% territorial greenhouse gas emissions reduction, stipulated in the 2008 Climate Change Act by 2050. All the pathways require increase in bioenergy deployment, of which a significant amount could be indigenously sourced from crops. But will increased domestic production of energy crops conflict with other land use and ecosystem priorities? To address this question, a coupled analysis of the four energy transition pathways and land use has been developed using an integrated resource accounting platform called ForeseerTM. The two systems are connected by the bioenergy component, and are projected forward in time to 2050, under different scenarios of energy crop composition and yield, and accounting for various constraints on land use for agriculture and ecosystem services. The results show between 7 and 61% of UK agricultural land could be required to meet bioenergy deployment projections under different combinations of crop yield and compositions for the transition pathways. This could result in competition for land for food production and other socio-economic and ecological land uses. Consequently, the potential role of bioenergy in achieving UK emissions reduction targets may face significant deployment challenges.

Introduction pathway and climate trump ecology and life history as predictors of establishment success in alien frogs and toads

PubMed Central

Rago, Alfredo; While, Geoffrey M; Uller, Tobias

2012-01-01

A major goal for ecology and evolution is to understand how abiotic and biotic factors shape patterns of biological diversity. Here, we show that variation in establishment success of nonnative frogs and toads is primarily explained by variation in introduction pathways and climatic similarity between the native range and introduction locality, with minor contributions from phylogeny, species ecology, and life history. This finding contrasts with recent evidence that particular species characteristics promote evolutionary range expansion and reduce the probability of extinction in native populations of amphibians, emphasizing how different mechanisms may shape species distributions on different temporal and spatial scales. We suggest that contemporary changes in the distribution of amphibians will be primarily determined by human-mediated extinctions and movement of species within climatic envelopes, and less by species-typical traits. PMID:22957152

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

Global Assessment of Exploitable Surface Reservoir Storage under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Parkinson, S.; Gidden, M.; Byers, E.; Satoh, Y.; Riahi, K.

2016-12-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply systems, hydropower generation, flood control, and recreation services. Reliable reservoirs can be robust measures for water security and can help smooth out challenging seasonal variability of river flows. Yet, reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and can lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-uses and ecosystems. The anticipated population growth, land use and climate change in many regions globally suggest a critical need to assess the potential for appropriate reservoir capacity that can balance rising demands with long-term water security. In this research, we assessed exploitable reservoir potential under climate change and human development constraints by deriving storage-yield relationships for 235 river basins globally. The storage-yield relationships map the amount of storage capacity required to meet a given water demand based on a 30-year inflow sequence. Runoff data is simulated with an ensemble of Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) for each of five bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under four climate change pathways. These data are used to define future 30-year inflows in each river basin for time period between 2010 and 2080. The calculated capacity is then combined with geographical information of environmental and human development exclusion zones to further limit the storage capacity expansion potential in each basin. We investigated the reliability of reservoir potentials across different climate change scenarios and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to identify river basins where reservoir expansion will be particularly challenging. Preliminary results suggest large disparities in reservoir potential across basins: some basins have already approached exploitable reserves, while some others display abundant potential. Exclusions zones pose significant impact on the amount of actual exploitable storage and firm yields worldwide: 30% of reservoir potential would be unavailable because of land occupation by environmental and human development. Results from this study will help decision makers to understand the reliability of infrastructure systems particularly sensitive to future water availability.

Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems, that will need to adapt to prevent largescale floods or crop-failure. Additionally, simulations under 'business-as-usual' pathway RCP8.5 would likely amplify the polarising effects on the hydrological regime as presented here, further stressing the need for adequate adaptation. The proposed presentation at EGU 2017 will contain clear visual results of the model and quantitative scenario simulations. These results are particularly interesting, firstly because they prove how a simple conceptual model can become a powerful tool in scenario analysis of future pathways. Furthermore, they clearly indicate major challenges that lowland areas are facing in modern times - not only the 46.000 km2 Po valley, but all around the world where lowlands often host the centres of our societies and economies. REFERENCES Brauer, C., Teuling, A., Torfs, P., Uijlenhoet, R., 2014. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater. Geoscientific Model Development 7 (5), 2313-2332. Rockel, B., Will, A., Hense, A., 2008. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift 17 (4), 347-348. Tarolli, P., Sofia, G., 2016. Human topographic signatures and derived geomorphic processes across landscapes. Geomorphology 255, 140-161. Vezzoli, R., Mercogliano, P., Pecora, S., Zollo, A., Cacciamani, C., 2015. Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM. Science of The Total Environment 521, 346-358.

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive land-use changes and management may buffer water quality against undesirable future climate changes, but changing climate may overwhelm management efforts to sustain freshwater supply and flood regulation. Spatially, changes in ecosystem services were heterogeneous across the landscape, underscoring the power of local actions and fine-scale management. Our research highlights the value of embracing spatial and temporal perspectives in managing ecosystem services and their complex interactions, and provides a system-level understanding for achieving sustainability of the food-water-climate nexus in agricultural landscapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than cities located in the mid-latitudes. However, it is expected that the combined effect of urbanization and climate change will result to significant changes on future urban temperature. ACK: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks.

PubMed

Walsh, Brian; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep; Riahi, Keywan; Rydzak, Felicjan; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-04-13

In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.

Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

PubMed Central

Walsh, Brian; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.; Peñuelas, Josep; Riahi, Keywan; Rydzak, Felicjan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-01-01

In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale. PMID:28406154

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.

Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2009-09-01

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

Comparing the Climate Agendas of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, S. R.; Oculi, N.

2016-12-01

Effective mitigation of and adaptation to climate change requires multilateral coordination of numerous political and scientific activities and priorities. Since its inception in 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has sought a comprehensive international response to the climate threat, culminating most recently in December 2015 at COP 21. The Paris Agreement was lauded as a landmark step toward global climate action as it represented a consensus of 196 countries to limit global warming to 2° C above pre-industrial levels with an additional stated goal to "pursue efforts" to limit the increase to 1.5° C. However, taken in a vacuum, the global Agreement masks important differences among its signatory countries in capabilities and priorities for tackling climate change, and obscures pathways for place-specific scientific research and intervention. Here we present a quantitative content analysis of official UNFCCC documents including COP transcripts, meeting agendas, and mitigation commitments outlined in pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to reveal areas of alignment and divergence among UNFCCC stakeholders. Textual cluster analysis illustrates the relative salience of key climate-related discourses (e.g. vulnerability; loss and damage; decarbonization; technology transfer) in the agendas of negotiating parties, and the degree to which the interests of some parties are over- or under-represented in the final "consensus" agreement. Understanding these disparities, and their potential to promote cooperation and/or disagreement among stakeholders, will be critical to scientists' efforts to develop equitable and sustainable long-term climate solutions.

Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Pierce, D. W.

2016-12-01

We investigate simulations conducted for the ongoing Climate Change Assessments in California. In this presentation, we explore implications of global climate change threshold targets on temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, snow pack, and extreme events including heat waves, wildfire and coastal flooding in California. A set of regional models driven by an ensemble of global climate change futures from 4th and 5th IPCC Assessment GCMs indicate how California's climate and thus its hydrological systems, coast and wildlands respond to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that produce global warming of 1.5°C and beyond. Differing global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios would produce strongly diverging results after mid-21st Century, as emphasized by the suite of modeled regional climate measures. The results demonstrate that global emissions can be used, independent of emissions pathway (but not entirely and not for all climate and impact measures), to estimate physical changes at the local and regional levels in the State. These relationships are explored to re-interpret prior studies that were based on the SRES emission scenarios along with the current suite of RCP scenarios. In addition, because historical emissions are above what was envisioned for the RCPs, and since the 2015 Conference of Parties implies a departure from the RCPs, consideration of cumulative CO2 emissions provides a useful tool for contextualizing historical emissions and expected outcomes from COP21. Climate policy implications are described, including climate adaptation guidance that California entities are required or encouraged to follow.

Hydrology of paraglacial catchments: preferential flow sustaining biodiversity hotspots in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grocott, M.; Kettridge, N.; Bradley, C.; Milner, A.

2015-12-01

Groundwater-fed streams are important biodiversity hotspots on paraglacial floodplains supporting a rich and abundant fauna. However, paraglacial systems in arctic, sub-arctic, and alpine regions are changing profoundly as a consequence of climate change. Glacial retreat, increasing permafrost melt, declining winter snowpacks, earlier spring melt, and shifting summer precipitation patterns are modifying the water balance in these areas and increasing environmental vulnerability. Here, we determine the hydrological functioning of groundwater-fed stream networks in Denali National Park, Alaska, demonstrating the importance of hillslope runoff through talus deposits and the significance of preferential flow pathways (PFPs) in supporting the stream networks. We used geochemical (major ions) and stable isotopic (δ2H & δ18O) tracers to identify key water sources, determine flow paths, and highlight spatial and temporal variations in the relative contributions of individual water sources and pathways to streamflow. Multiple flow paths are shown to support streams, with the relative contribution of water sources varying on both inter-annual and seasonal scales. Hydrograph separations confirm hillslope runoff as a key contributor of flow to groundwater fed stream networks. Further, they establish the importance of talus deposits on valley sides as conduits of flow, and their potential importance as headwater aquifers. The implications are that the effects of changing climates within paraglacial environments on hillslope runoff sources will have a greater impact on these biodiversity hotspots than up-valley glacial retreat and associated changes.

Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran).

PubMed

Soleimani, Azam; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Jafari, Mostafa; Francaviglia, Rosa

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) contains a considerable portion of the world's terrestrial carbon stock, and is affected by changes in land cover and climate. SOC modeling is a useful approach to assess the impact of land use, land use change and climate change on carbon (C) sequestration. This study aimed to: (i) test the performance of RothC model using data measured from different land covers in Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran); and (ii) predict changes in SOC under different climate change scenarios that may occur in the future. The following land covers were considered: Quercus castaneifolia (QC), Acer velutinum (AV), Alnus subcordata (AS), Cupressus sempervirens (CS) plantations and a natural forest (NF). For assessment of future climate change projections the Fifth Assessment IPCC report was used. These projections were generated with nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) leading to very low and high greenhouse gases concentration levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively), and for four 20year-periods up to 2099 (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Simulated values of SOC correlated well with measured data (R 2 =0.64 to 0.91) indicating a good efficiency of the RothC model. Our results showed an overall decrease in SOC stocks by 2099 under all land covers and climate change scenarios, but the extent of the decrease varied with the climate models, the emissions scenarios, time periods and land covers. Acer velutinum plantation was the most sensitive land cover to future climate change (range of decrease 8.34-21.83tCha -1 ). Results suggest that modeling techniques can be effectively applied for evaluating SOC stocks, allowing the identification of current patterns in the soil and the prediction of future conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal).

PubMed

Rafael, S; Martins, H; Marta-Almeida, M; Sá, E; Coelho, S; Rocha, A; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

2017-05-01

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juknys, Romualdas; Velička, Rimantas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Kriaučiūnienė, Zita; Masilionytė, Laura; Vagusevičienė, Ilona; Pupalienė, Rita; Klepeckas, Martynas; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

2017-10-01

Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961-2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

PubMed Central

Butt, Nathalie; Pollock, Laura J; McAlpine, Clive A

2013-01-01

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure. PMID:24455132

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

2014-01-01

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient.

PubMed

Wilson, Hannah; Johnson, Bart R; Bohannan, Brendan; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Mueller, Rebecca; Bridgham, Scott D

2016-01-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.

Climate change and its impacts on vegetation distribution and net primary productivity of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Gao, Qingzhu; Guo, Yaqi; Xu, Hongmei; Ganjurjav, Hasbagen; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Liu, Shuo

2016-06-01

Changes in climate have caused impacts on ecosystems on all continents scale, and climate change is also projected to be a stressor on most ecosystems even at the rate of low- to medium-range warming scenarios. Alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change. To quantify the climate change impacts on alpine ecosystems, we simulated the vegetation distribution and net primary production in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ model) was parameter and test to make it applicable to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Climate projections that were applied to LPJ model in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. Results based on climate projections indicated changes from 1.3°C to 4.2°C in annual temperature and changes from 2% to 5% in annual precipitation. The main impacts on vegetation distribution was increase in the area of forests and shrubs, decrease in alpine meadows which mainly replaced by shrubs which dominated the eastern plateau, and expanding in alpine steppes to the northwest dominated the western and northern plateau. The NPP was projected to increase by 79% and 134% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected NPP generally increased about 200gC·m(-2)·yr(-1) in most parts of the plateau with a gradual increase from the eastern to the western region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at the end of this century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2012-08-01

The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

2013-01-01

Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CHEMICAL AND CLIMATE STRESSORS: A ROLE FOR MECHANISTIC TOXICOLOGY IN ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS

PubMed Central

Hooper, Michael J; Ankley, Gerald T; Cristol, Daniel A; Maryoung, Lindley A; Noyes, Pamela D; Pinkerton, Kent E

2013-01-01

Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:32–48. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23136056

Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.;

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd oxn behalf of British Ecological Society.

Climate Change, CO2, and Defense: The Metabolic, Redox, and Signaling Perspectives.

PubMed

Noctor, Graham; Mhamdi, Amna

2017-10-01

Ongoing human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere continue to stimulate interest in the effects of high CO 2 on plants, but its potential impact on inducible plant defense pathways remains poorly defined. Recently, several studies have reported that growth at elevated CO 2 is sufficient to induce defenses such as the salicylic acid pathway, thereby increasing plant resistance to pathogens. These reports contrast with evidence that defense pathways can be promoted by photorespiration, which is inhibited at high CO 2 . Here, we review signaling, metabolic, and redox processes modulated by CO 2 levels and discuss issues to be resolved in elucidating the relationships between primary metabolism, inducible defense, and biotic stress resistance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Allergies in the Anthropocene: Abundance, Interaction, and Modification of Allergens and Adjuvants.

PubMed

Reinmuth-Selzle, Kathrin; Kampf, Christopher J; Lucas, Kurt; Lang-Yona, Naama; Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Janine; Shiraiwa, Manabu; Lakey, Pascale S J; Lai, Senchao; Liu, Fobang; Kunert, Anna T; Ziegler, Kira; Shen, Fangxia; Sgarbanti, Rossella; Weber, Bettina; Bellinghausen, Iris; Saloga, Joachim; Weller, Michael G; Duschl, Albert; Schuppan, Detlef; Pöschl, Ulrich

2017-04-18

Air pollution and climate change are potential drivers for the increasing burden of allergic diseases. The molecular mechanisms by which air pollutants and climate parameters may influence allergic diseases, however, are complex and elusive. This article provides an overview of physical, chemical and biological interactions between air pollution, climate change, allergens, adjuvants and the immune system, addressing how these interactions may promote the development of allergies. We reviewed and synthesized key findings from atmospheric, climate, and biomedical research. The current state of knowledge, open questions, and future research perspectives are outlined and discussed. The Anthropocene, as the present era of globally pervasive anthropogenic influence on planet Earth and, thus, on the human environment, is characterized by a strong increase of carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and combustion- or traffic-related particulate matter in the atmosphere. These environmental factors can enhance the abundance and induce chemical modifications of allergens, increase oxidative stress in the human body, and skew the immune system toward allergic reactions. In particular, air pollutants can act as adjuvants and alter the immunogenicity of allergenic proteins, while climate change affects the atmospheric abundance and human exposure to bioaerosols and aeroallergens. To fully understand and effectively mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on allergic diseases, several challenges remain to be resolved. Among these are the identification and quantification of immunochemical reaction pathways involving allergens and adjuvants under relevant environmental and physiological conditions.

Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Allergies in the Anthropocene: Abundance, Interaction, and Modification of Allergens and Adjuvants

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Air pollution and climate change are potential drivers for the increasing burden of allergic diseases. The molecular mechanisms by which air pollutants and climate parameters may influence allergic diseases, however, are complex and elusive. This article provides an overview of physical, chemical and biological interactions between air pollution, climate change, allergens, adjuvants and the immune system, addressing how these interactions may promote the development of allergies. We reviewed and synthesized key findings from atmospheric, climate, and biomedical research. The current state of knowledge, open questions, and future research perspectives are outlined and discussed. The Anthropocene, as the present era of globally pervasive anthropogenic influence on planet Earth and, thus, on the human environment, is characterized by a strong increase of carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and combustion- or traffic-related particulate matter in the atmosphere. These environmental factors can enhance the abundance and induce chemical modifications of allergens, increase oxidative stress in the human body, and skew the immune system toward allergic reactions. In particular, air pollutants can act as adjuvants and alter the immunogenicity of allergenic proteins, while climate change affects the atmospheric abundance and human exposure to bioaerosols and aeroallergens. To fully understand and effectively mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on allergic diseases, several challenges remain to be resolved. Among these are the identification and quantification of immunochemical reaction pathways involving allergens and adjuvants under relevant environmental and physiological conditions. PMID:28326768

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

PubMed

Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

2016-06-01

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods. The likely fire-induced shift toward greater deciduous hardwood cover may affect climate-vegetation feedbacks via surface albedo, Bowen ratio, and carbon cycling. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quality regulations are robust under a range of possible future climates and to consider possible policy actions to mitigate climate change, it is important to characterize and understand the effects of climate change on air quality. Recent work by several research groups using global and regional models has demonstrated that there is a "climate penalty," in which climate change leads to increases in surface ozone levels in polluted continental regions. One approach to simulating future air quality at the regional scale is via dynamical downscaling, in which fields from a global climate model are used as input for a regional climate model, and these regional climate data are subsequently used for chemical transport modeling. However, recent studies using this approach have encountered problems with the downscaled regional climate fields, including unrealistic surface temperatures and misrepresentation of synoptic pressure patterns such as the Bermuda High. We developed a downscaling methodology and showed that it now reasonably simulates regional climate by evaluating it against historical data. In this work, regional climate simulations created by downscaling the NASA/GISS Model E2 global climate model are used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ simulations over the continental United States are conducted for two 11-year time slices, one representing current climate (1995-2005) and one following Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from 2025-2035. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone and PM precursors are held constant at year 2006 levels for both the current and future periods. In our presentation, we will examine the changes in ozone and PM concentrations, with particular focus on exceedances of the current U.S. air quality standards, and attempt to relate the changes in air quality to the projected changes in regional climate.

Tropical Indo-Pacific hydroclimate response to North Atlantic forcing during the last deglaciation as recorded by a speleothem from Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurtzel, Jennifer B.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Bajo, Petra; Hellstrom, John C.; Troitzsch, Ulrike; Heslop, David

2018-06-01

Abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are known to have affected the strength of the Indian and Asian Monsoons during glacial and deglacial climate states. However, there is still much uncertainty around the hydroclimate response of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) region to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic. Many studies suggest a mean southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the IPWP region during phases of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning, however, existing proxies have seasonal biases and conflicting responses, making it difficult to determine the true extent of North Atlantic forcing in this climatically important region. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution record of eastern Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability spanning the last 16 ky (thousand years) from δ18O measurements in an aragonite-calcite speleothem from central Sumatra. This represents the western-most speleothem record from the IPWP region. Precipitation arrives year-round at this site, with the majority sourced from the local tropical eastern Indian Ocean and two additional long-range seasonal sources associated with the boreal and austral summer monsoons. The Sumatran speleothem demonstrates a clear deglacial structure that includes 18O enrichment during the Younger Dryas and 18O depletion during the Bølling-Allerød, similar to the pattern seen in speleothems of the Asian and Indian monsoon realms. The speleothem δ18O changes at this site are best explained by changes in rainfall amount and changes in the contributions from different moisture pathways. Reduced rainfall in Sumatra during the Younger Dryas is most likely driven by reductions in moisture transport along the northern or southern monsoon transport pathways to Sumatra. Considered with other regional proxies, the record from Sumatra suggests the response of the IPWP to North Atlantic freshwater forcing is not solely driven by southward shifts of the ITCZ, but also a reduction in moisture transport along both monsoon pathways.

Greater transportation energy and GHG offsets from bioelectricity than ethanol.

PubMed

Campbell, J E; Lobell, D B; Field, C B

2009-05-22

The quantity of land available to grow biofuel crops without affecting food prices or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land conversion is limited. Therefore, bioenergy should maximize land-use efficiency when addressing transportation and climate change goals. Biomass could power either internal combustion or electric vehicles, but the relative land-use efficiency of these two energy pathways is not well quantified. Here, we show that bioelectricity outperforms ethanol across a range of feedstocks, conversion technologies, and vehicle classes. Bioelectricity produces an average of 81% more transportation kilometers and 108% more emissions offsets per unit area of cropland than does cellulosic ethanol. These results suggest that alternative bioenergy pathways have large differences in how efficiently they use the available land to achieve transportation and climate goals.

Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Rap, Alexandru; Maycock, Amanda C.; Wild, Oliver; Young, Paul J.

2018-05-01

Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm-2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm-2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm-2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm-2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm-2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry-climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm-2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ˜ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000-2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

When it rains, it pours: future climate extremes and health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Grabow, Maggie L; Limaye, Vijay S

2014-01-01

The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits beyond the health sector. Because the nations least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable to its effects, the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not merely technical, but also moral. Copyright © 2014 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

2017-04-01

Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garijo, Carlos; Mediero, Luis

2018-04-01

Climate change projections suggest that extremes, such as floods, will modify their behaviour in the future. Detailed catchment-scale studies are needed to implement the European Union Floods Directive and give recommendations for flood management and design of hydraulic infrastructure. In this study, a methodology to quantify changes in future flood magnitude and seasonality due to climate change at a catchment scale is proposed. Projections of 24 global climate models are used, with 10 being downscaled by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) and 14 from the EURO-CORDEX project, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the Fifth Assessment Report provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Downscaled climate models provided by the AEMET were corrected in terms of bias. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Simulations were analysed through both annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. The results show a decrease in the magnitude of extreme floods for the climate model projections downscaled by the AEMET. However, results for the climate model projections downscaled by EURO-CORDEX show differing trends, depending on the RCP. A small decrease in the flood magnitude was noticed for the RCP 4.5, while an increase was found for the RCP 8.5. Regarding the monthly seasonality analysis performed by using the POT series, a delay in the flood timing from late-autumn to late-winter is identified supporting the findings of recent studies performed with observed data in recent decades.

Forecasting Distributional Responses of Limber Pine to Climate Change at Management-Relevant Scales in Rocky Mountain National Park

PubMed Central

Monahan, William B.; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

2013-01-01

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management. PMID:24391742

Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

2013-01-01

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management.

Modelling of labour productivity loss due to climate change: HEAT-SHIELD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Daanen, Hein

2016-04-01

Climate change will bring higher heat levels (temperature and humidity combined) to large parts of the world. When these levels reach above thresholds well defined by human physiology, the ability to maintain physical activity levels decrease and labour productivity is reduced. This impact is of particular importance in work situations in areas with long high intensity hot seasons, but also affects cooler areas during heat waves. Our modelling of labour productivity loss includes climate model data of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP), calculations of heat stress indexes during different months, estimations of work capacity loss and its annual impacts in different parts of the world. Different climate models will be compared for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the outcomes of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) agreements. The validation includes comparisons of modelling outputs with actual field studies using historical heat data. These modelling approaches are a first stage contribution to the European Commission funded HEAT-SHIELD project.

Estimation of the possible influence of future climate changes on biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, H. M.; Nishina, K.; Ito, A.

2015-12-01

In recent decades, climate change has progressed worldwide and their influences on ecosystem structure and function that provide various goods and services to humans' well-being are of the greatest concerns. The ecosystem function and services are tightly coupled with the biodiversity, particularly via food web and biogeochemical cycles and here carbon is one of the central elements. The photosynthetic carbon fixation by plants, which forms the basis of the food web, is known to be highly sensitive to meteorological changes including radiation, temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration. Thus an analysis of the effect of future climate change on the carbon cycle processes including photosynthetic production in a biogeographical region, which is important from the viewpoint of the biodiversity conservation, such as "biodiversity hotspot", might enable us to discuss the relevance between climate change and biodiversity.In ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) phase 1, we have estimated NPP (net primary production), plant biomass and soil organic carbon by seven global biome models under climate conditions from 1901 to 2100 based on four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways for 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W m-2 stabilization targets) and five global climate models. In the present study, we analyzed these outputs to reveal the effects of changes on NPP, plant biomass and soil organic carbon in 20 biodiversity hotspots in various climatic regions. Although NPP of whole world tended to increase under RCP 8.5 W m-2 scenario, some biome models have shown that NPP of the hotspots in tropical regions decrease.

Different ecophysiological responses of freshwater fish to warming and acidification.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago F; Rosa, Inês C; Repolho, Tiago; Lopes, Ana R; Pimentel, Marta S; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M; Rosa, Rui

2018-02-01

Future climate change scenarios predict threatening outcomes to biodiversity. Available empirical data concerning biological response of freshwater fish to climate change remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of two Iberian freshwater fish species (Squalius carolitertii and the endangered S. torgalensis), inhabiting different climatic conditions, to projected future scenarios of warming (+3°C) and acidification (ΔpH=-0.4). Herein, metabolic enzyme activities of glycolytic (citrate synthase - CS, lactate dehydrogenase - LDH) and antioxidant (glutathione S-transferase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) pathways, as well as the heat shock response (HSR) and lipid peroxidation were determined. Our results show that, under current water pH, warming causes differential interspecific changes on LDH activity, increasing and decreasing its activity in S. carolitertii and in S. torgalensis, respectively. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of warming and acidification caused an increase in LDH activity of S. torgalensis, comparing with the warming condition. As for CS activity, acidification significantly decreased its activity in S. carolitertii whereas in S. torgalensis no significant effect was observed. These results suggest that S. carolitertii is more vulnerable to climate change, possibly as the result of its evolutionary acclimatization to milder climatic condition, while S. torgalensis evolved in the warmer Mediterranean climate. However, significant changes in HSR were observed under the combined warming and acidification (S. carolitertii) or under acidification (S. torgalensis). Our results underlie the importance of conducting experimental studies and address species endpoint responses under projected climate change scenarios to improve conservation strategies, and to safeguard endangered freshwater fish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental water demand assessment under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Sarzaeim, Parisa; Bozorg-Haddad, Omid; Fallah-Mehdipour, Elahe; Loáiciga, Hugo A

2017-07-01

Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010-2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010-2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7-5.2 and 1.9-9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9-7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper's methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.

Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

2012-04-01

Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

Overshoot and Non-Overshoot Pathways to 1.5oC and Above: The Temperature Tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feijoo, F.; Edmonds, J.; Wise, M. A.; Mignone, B.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2017-12-01

We create 3000 temperature pathways that lead to a wide range of outcomes in 2100 from below 1.5oC to over 3oC. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which includes the HECTOR physical Earth system model, to generate emission, climate forcing and global temperature trajectories driven by a wide range of assumed carbon price trajectories. While no probability is estimated for the generated trajectories, we report the central estimate of temperature response to emissions from HECTOR. We find that despite the wide range of generated carbon emission trajectories, temperature pathways were constrained to a narrow range until shortly before mid-century. This "temperature tunnel" was the result of two phenomena: first, a narrow range of radiative forcing for 10-15 years created by the concurrent reduction of carbon and aerosol emissions; and second, the thermal lag of the climate response to radiative forcing change of roughly 10-15 years. Scenarios consistent with 1.5oC showed higher short-term temperatures than scenarios consistent with higher temperature outcomes. No scenarios were found that peak below approximately 1.9oC.

Drought impacts on children's respiratory health in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Smith, Lauren T.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Sabel, Clive E.; Nakaya, Tomoki

2014-01-01

Drought conditions in Amazonia are associated with increased fire incidence, enhancing aerosol emissions with degradation in air quality. Quantifying the synergic influence of climate and human-driven environmental changes on human health is, therefore, critical for identifying climate change adaptation pathways for this vulnerable region. Here we show a significant increase (1.2%–267%) in hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in children under-five in municipalities highly exposed to drought. Aerosol was the primary driver of hospitalisations in drought affected municipalities during 2005, while human development conditions mitigated the impacts in 2010. Our results demonstrated that drought events deteriorated children's respiratory health particularly during 2005 when the drought was more geographically concentrated. This indicates that if governments act on curbing fire usage and effectively plan public health provision, as a climate change adaptation procedure, health quality would improve and public expenditure for treatment would decrease in the region during future drought events. PMID:24430803

Drought impacts on children's respiratory health in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Lauren T.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Sabel, Clive E.; Nakaya, Tomoki

2014-01-01

Drought conditions in Amazonia are associated with increased fire incidence, enhancing aerosol emissions with degradation in air quality. Quantifying the synergic influence of climate and human-driven environmental changes on human health is, therefore, critical for identifying climate change adaptation pathways for this vulnerable region. Here we show a significant increase (1.2%-267%) in hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in children under-five in municipalities highly exposed to drought. Aerosol was the primary driver of hospitalisations in drought affected municipalities during 2005, while human development conditions mitigated the impacts in 2010. Our results demonstrated that drought events deteriorated children's respiratory health particularly during 2005 when the drought was more geographically concentrated. This indicates that if governments act on curbing fire usage and effectively plan public health provision, as a climate change adaptation procedure, health quality would improve and public expenditure for treatment would decrease in the region during future drought events.

Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Hwang-Yong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-01-01

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.

Impacts of Change in Irrigation Water Availability on Food Production in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Y. Y.; Tang, Q.

2014-12-01

Approximately 9 percent of China's population and 17 percent of its agricultural area are settled in the Yellow River Basins. Irrigation, which plays an important role in agricultural production, occupies the largest share of human consumptive water use in the basin. Given increasing water demands, the basin faces acute water scarcity. Previous studies have suggested that decrease in irrigation water availability under climate change might have an overall adverse impact on the food production of the basin. The timing and area that would face severe water stress are yet to be identified. We used a land surface hydrological model forced with the bias-corrected climatic variables from 5 climate models under 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to estimate total water availability in the sub-basins of the Yellow River basin. The future socioeconomic conditions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were used to estimate the water requirement in the nonagricultural water use sectors. The irrigation water availability was estimated from the total water availability and nonagricultural water use, and the irrigation water demands were estimated based on the current irrigation project efficiencies. The timing and area of irrigation water shortage were shown and the implication of change in irrigation water availability on food production was assessed. The results show that the sub-basins with high population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are likely to confront severe water stress and reduction in food production earlier because irrigation water was to be appropriated by the rapid increase in nonagricultural water use sectors. The study stresses the need for adaptive management of water to balance agriculture and nonagricultural demands in northern China.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafael, S., E-mail: sandra.rafael@ua.pt

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were appliedmore » for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986–2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046–2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. - Highlights: • Assessment of energy fluxes behaviour under past period and medium-term climate change projection. • Evaluation of climate change at urban scale. • Meteorological variables alters the partitioning of the energy fluxes. • Changes in the partition of the annual energy balance are found between the two analysed periods. • Increase in the magnitude of sensible and storage heat fluxes.« less

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

The Implications of Deep Mitigation Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.

2016-12-01

The 21st Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC agreement called for limiting climate change to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C." A climate target of 1.5°C places a stringent constraint on allowable emissions over the twenty-first century. Roegli et al. (2015) set that constraint at 200-415 GtCO2 between 2011 and 2100 for a likely chance of staying below 1.5°C in 2100. Limiting emissions to these levels requires that global emissions peak and decline over the coming decades, with net negative global emissions by mid-century. This level of decarbonization requires dramatic shifts in the energy and agricultural sectors, and comes at significant economic costs. This talk explores the effect of mitigating climate change to 1.5°C on the economy, energy system, and terrestrial system. We quantify the required deployment of various low carbon technologies, as well as the amount of existing capital that is abandoned in an effort to limit emissions. We show the shifts required in the terrestrial system, including its contribution to carbon sequestration through afforestation and bioenergy. Additionally, we show the implications of deep mitigation pathways on energy, food, and carbon prices. We contrast these results with a reference, no climate policy, world and a 2°C.

Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.

2015-12-01

Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics ensembles of CESM, employing results from multiple climate models, and combining the results from single impact models with statistical representations of uncertainty across multiple models. A key consideration is the relationship between the question being addressed and the uncertainty approach.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-01

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata).

PubMed

Lei, Juncheng; Chen, Lian; Li, Hong

2017-08-01

The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, is one of the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species. Knowledge about the critical climate variables that limit the global distribution range of the snail, as well as predictions of future species distributions under climate change, is very helpful for management of snail. In this study, the climatically suitable habitats for this kind of snail under current climate conditions were modeled by biomod2 and projected to eight future climate scenarios (2 time periods [2050s, 2080s] × 2 Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP8.5] × 2 atmospheric General Circulation Models [GCMs; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)]). The results suggest that the lowest temperature of coldest month is the critical climate variable to restrict the global distribution range of P. canaliculata. It is predicted that the climatically suitable habitats for P. canaliculata will increase by an average of 3.3% in 2050s and 3.8% in 2080s for the RCP2.6 scenario, while they increase by an average of 8.7% in 2050s and 10.3% in 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, climate change in the future may promote the global invasion of the invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to take proactive measures to monitor and preclude the invasion of this species.

The CESM Large Ensemble Project: Inspiring New Ideas and Understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.

2016-12-01

While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920-2100) 40+ times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 2000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Examples of scientists and stakeholders that are using the CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change will be highlighted the presentation.

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Bridging the Gap between Policy-Driven Land Use Changes and Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berckmans, J.; Hamdi, R.; Dendoncker, N.; Ceulemans, R.

2017-12-01

Land use land cover changes (LULCC) can impact the regional climate by two mechanisms: biogeochemical and biogeophysical. The biogeochemical mechanism of the LULCC alters the chemical composition of the atmosphere by greenhouse gas emissions. The biogeophysical mechanism forces changes in the heat and moisture transfer between the land and the atmosphere. The different representations of the future LULCC under influence of the biogeochemical mechanism are included in the IPCC Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In contrast, the RCPs do not incorporate the biogeophysical effects. Although considerable research has been devoted to the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on climate, less attention has been paid to assessing the full (both biogeochemical and biogeophysical) LULCC impact on the regional climate in modeling studies. Due to the large variety of small changes in the landscape of Western Europe, the small scale climate impact by the LULCC has been achieved using high-resolution scenarios. The "ALARM" project that was governed by the European Commission generated LULCC data on a resolution of 250x250 m for three time steps: 2020, 2050 and 2080. The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model has been downscaled to perform simulations with ALARO-SURFEX for the near-term future. Both climate changes and land cover changes have been assessed based on RCP and ALARM scenarios. The use of the land surface model SURFEX with its tiling approach allowed us to accurately represent the small scale changes in the landscape. The largest landscape changes contain the abandonment of agricultural land and the increase in forestry and urban areas. Our results show that the conversions from rural areas to urban areas and arable land to forest in Western Europe considerable affect the near-surface temperature and to a lesser extent the precipitation. These results are related to modifications demonstrated in the surface energy budget. The LULCC have a significant impact compared to the near-term future climate changes. They provide valuable information for landscape planning to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The strength of this study is the use of policy-driven LULCC data combined with an accurate representation of the land by the climate model.

Characterizing the drivers of seedling leaf gas exchange responses to warming and altered precipitation: indirect and direct effects.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas G; Pold, Grace; Goranson, Carol; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic forces are projected to lead to warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns globally. The impact of these climatic changes on the uptake of carbon by the land surface will, in part, determine the rate and magnitude of these changes. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate in the future. Here, we used a fully factorial warming (four levels) by precipitation (three levels) manipulation experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to examine the impact of climatic changes on leaf carbon exchange in five species of deciduous tree seedlings. We found that photosynthesis generally increased in response to increasing precipitation and decreased in response to warming. Respiration was less sensitive to the treatments. The net result was greater leaf carbon uptake in wetter and cooler conditions across all species. Structural equation modelling revealed the primary pathway through which climate impacted leaf carbon exchange. Net photosynthesis increased with increasing stomatal conductance and photosynthetic enzyme capacity (V cmax ), and decreased with increasing respiration of leaves. Soil moisture and leaf temperature at the time of measurement most heavily influenced these primary drivers of net photosynthesis. Leaf respiration increased with increasing soil moisture, leaf temperature, and photosynthetic supply of substrates. Counter to the soil moisture response, respiration decreased with increasing precipitation amount, indicating that the response to short- (i.e. soil moisture) versus long-term (i.e. precipitation amount) water stress differed, possibly as a result of changes in the relative amounts of growth and maintenance demand for respiration over time. These data (>500 paired measurements of light and dark leaf gas exchange), now publicly available, detail the pathways by which climate can impact leaf gas exchange and could be useful for testing assumptions in land surface models. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Characterizing the drivers of seedling leaf gas exchange responses to warming and altered precipitation: indirect and direct effects

PubMed Central

Smith, Nicholas G.; Pold, Grace; Goranson, Carol; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic forces are projected to lead to warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns globally. The impact of these climatic changes on the uptake of carbon by the land surface will, in part, determine the rate and magnitude of these changes. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate in the future. Here, we used a fully factorial warming (four levels) by precipitation (three levels) manipulation experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to examine the impact of climatic changes on leaf carbon exchange in five species of deciduous tree seedlings. We found that photosynthesis generally increased in response to increasing precipitation and decreased in response to warming. Respiration was less sensitive to the treatments. The net result was greater leaf carbon uptake in wetter and cooler conditions across all species. Structural equation modelling revealed the primary pathway through which climate impacted leaf carbon exchange. Net photosynthesis increased with increasing stomatal conductance and photosynthetic enzyme capacity (Vcmax), and decreased with increasing respiration of leaves. Soil moisture and leaf temperature at the time of measurement most heavily influenced these primary drivers of net photosynthesis. Leaf respiration increased with increasing soil moisture, leaf temperature, and photosynthetic supply of substrates. Counter to the soil moisture response, respiration decreased with increasing precipitation amount, indicating that the response to short- (i.e. soil moisture) versus long-term (i.e. precipitation amount) water stress differed, possibly as a result of changes in the relative amounts of growth and maintenance demand for respiration over time. These data (>500 paired measurements of light and dark leaf gas exchange), now publicly available, detail the pathways by which climate can impact leaf gas exchange and could be useful for testing assumptions in land surface models. PMID:27658816

Modelling climate impacts on the aviation sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Paul

2017-04-01

The climate is changing, not just where we live at ground level, but also where we fly at 35,000 feet. We have long known that air travel contributes to climate change through its emissions. However, we have only recently become aware that climate change could have significant consequences for air travel. This presentation will give an overview of the possible impacts of climate change on the aviation sector. The presentation will describe how the impacts are modelled and how their social and economic costs are estimated. The impacts are discussed in the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO's) latest Environmental Report (Puempel and Williams 2016). Some of the possible impacts are as follows. Rising sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal airports, such as La Guardia in New York, which was flooded by the remnants of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Warmer air at ground level reduces the lift force and makes it more difficult for planes to take-off (Coffel and Horton 2015). More extreme weather may cause flight disruptions and delays. Clear-air turbulence is expected to become up to 40% stronger and twice as common (Williams and Joshi 2013). Transatlantic flights may collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year because of changes to the jet stream, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide (Williams 2016). These modelled impacts provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change. References Coffel E and Horton R (2015) Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation. Weather, Climate, and Society, 7, 94-102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00026.1 Puempel H and Williams PD (2016) The impacts of climate change on aviation: Scientific challenges and adaptation pathways. ICAO Environmental Report 2016: On Board A Sustainable Future, pp 205-207. http://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/ENV2016.aspx Williams PD and Joshi MM (2013) Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3(7), pp 644-648. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1866 Williams PD (2016) Transatlantic flight times and climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11(2), 024008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024008

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE PAGES

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

2016-08-18

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Predicted Responses of Vegetation to Climate Change: A Global Analysis of Changes in Primary Productivity and Water Use Efficiency in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, S.

2016-12-01

Global coupled carbon-climate simulations show considerable variability in outputs for atmospheric and land fields over the 21st century. This variability includes changes in temperature and in the quantity and spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation for large regions on the planet. Studies have considered that reductions in water availability due to decreased precipitation and increased water demand by the atmosphere may negatively affect plant metabolism and reduce carbon uptake. Future increases in carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to affect those interactions and potentially offset reductions in productivity. It is uncertain how plants will adjust their water use efficiency (WUE, plant production per water loss by evapotranspiration) in response to changing environmental conditions. This work investigates predicted changes in WUE in the 21st century by analyzing an ensemble of Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), together with flux tower data and products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Two representative concentration pathways were selected to describe possible climate futures (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Periods of analysis included 2006-2099 (predicted) and 1850-2005 (reference). Comparisons between modeled, flux and satellite data for IPCC SREX regions were used to address the significant intermodel variability observed for the CMIP5 ensemble (larger variability for RCP8.5, higher intermodel agreement in Southeast Asia, lower intermodel agreement in arid areas). Model skill was evaluated in support of model selection and the spatiotemporal analysis of changes in WUE. Global, regional and latitudinal distributions of departures of projected conditions in relation to historical values are presented for both concentration pathways. Results showed high model sensitivity to different concentration pathways and increase in GPP and WUE for most of the planet (increases consistently higher for RCP8.5). Higher increases in GPP and WUE are predicted to occur over higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere (boreal region), with WUE usually following GPP in changes. Decreases in productivity and WUE occur mostly in the tropics, affecting tropical forests in Central America and in the Amazon.

Simulation of in-stream water quality on global scale under changing climate and anthropogenic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voss, Anja; Bärlund, Ilona; Punzet, Manuel; Williams, Richard; Teichert, Ellen; Malve, Olli; Voß, Frank

2010-05-01

Although catchment scale modelling of water and solute transport and transformations is a widely used technique to study pollution pathways and effects of natural changes, policies and mitigation measures there are only a few examples of global water quality modelling. This work will provide a description of the new continental-scale model of water quality WorldQual and the analysis of model simulations under changed climate and anthropogenic conditions with respect to changes in diffuse and point loading as well as surface water quality. BOD is used as an indicator of the level of organic pollution and its oxygen-depleting potential, and for the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. The first application of this new water quality model is to river systems of Europe. The model itself is being developed as part of the EU-funded SCENES Project which has the principal goal of developing new scenarios of the future of freshwater resources in Europe. The aim of the model is to determine chemical fluxes in different pathways combining analysis of water quantity with water quality. Simple equations, consistent with the availability of data on the continental scale, are used to simulate the response of in-stream BOD concentrations to diffuse and anthropogenic point loadings as well as flow dilution. Point sources are divided into manufacturing, domestic and urban loadings, whereas diffuse loadings come from scattered settlements, agricultural input (for instance livestock farming), and also from natural background sources. The model is tested against measured longitudinal gradients and time series data at specific river locations with different loading characteristics like the Thames that is driven by domestic loading and Ebro with relative high share of diffuse loading. With scenario studies the influence of climate and anthropogenic changes on European water resources shall be investigated with the following questions: 1. What percentage of river systems will have degraded water quality due to different driving forces? 2. How will climate change and changes in wastewater discharges affect water quality? For the analysis these scenario aspects are included: 1. climate with changed runoff (affecting diffuse pollution and loading from sealed areas), river discharge (causing dilution or concentration of point source pollution) and water temperature (affecting BOD degradation). 2. Point sources with changed population (affecting domestic pollution), connectivity to treatment plants (influencing domestic and manufacturing pollution as well as input from sealed areas and scattered settlements).

The Data Platform for Climate Research and Action: Introducing Climate Watch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, R. J.; Ge, M.; Friedrich, J.; Lebling, K.; Carlock, G.; Arcipowska, A.; Mangan, E.; Biru, H.; Tankou, A.; Chaudhury, M.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 1/CP.21, brings all nations together to take on ambitious efforts to combat climate change. Open access to climate data supporting climate research, advancing knowledge, and informing decision making is key to encourage and strengthen efforts of stakeholders at all levels to address and respond to effects of climate change. Climate Watch is a robust online data platform developed in response to the urgent needs of knowledge and tools to empower climate research and action, including those of researchers, policy makers, the private sector, civil society, and all other non-state actors. Building on the rapid growing technology of open data and information sharing, Climate Watch is equipped with extensive amount of climate data, informative visualizations, concise yet efficient user interface, and connection to resources users need to gather insightful information on national and global progress towards delivering on the objective of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Climate Watch brings together hundreds of quantitative and qualitative indicators for easy explore, visualize, compare, download at global, national, and sectoral levels: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 190 countries over the1850-2014 time period, covering all seven Kyoto Gases following IPCC source/sink categories; Structured information on over 150 NDCs facilitating the clarity, understanding and transparency of countries' contributions to address climate change; Over 6500 identified linkages between climate actions in NDCs across the 169 targets of the sustainable development goals (SDG); Over 200 indicators describing low carbon pathways from models and scenarios by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national sources; and Data on vulnerability and risk, policies, finance, and many more. Climate Watch platform is developed as part of the broader efforts within the World Resources Institute, the NDC Partnership, and in collaboration with GIZ, UNFCCC, World Bank, and Climate Analytics.

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Fisher, Micah R.; Genco, Brandon M.; Running, Steven W.

2015-01-01

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people. PMID:26061091

Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II—contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.

2018-04-01

Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

PubMed

Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R; Caldwell, Jamie M; Fisher, Micah R; Genco, Brandon M; Running, Steven W

2015-06-01

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hasanzadeh, Y.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.

2017-07-01

Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992-2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination ( R 2) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006-2037; mid-century, 2037-2070; and late-century, 2070-2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had significant positive trends at 90, 99, and 99.9 % confidence level. On the other hand, in all parts of the Kashafrood Watershed (KW), the average temperature of watershed will be increased up to 0.56-3.3 °C and the mean precipitation will be decreased up to 10.7 % by the end of the twenty-first century comparing to the historical baselines. Also, in seasonal scale, the maximum and minimum precipitations will occur in spring and summer, respectively, and the mean temperature is higher than the historical baseline in all seasons. The maximum and minimum values of the mean temperature will occur in summer and winter, respectively, and the amount of seasonal precipitation in these seasons will be reduced.

Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

2017-12-01

We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio-economic perspective). In our presentation we will show the cases of Peru and the Philippines, and discuss the implications for agriculture policies and risk management.

Using Integrated Assessment Models to Estimate the Economic Damages from Temperature Related Human Health Effects in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Calvin, K. V.; Puett, R.; Sapkota, A.; Schwarber, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase risks to human health. One pathway that may be particularly difficult to manage is adverse human health impacts (e.g. premature mortality and morbidity) from increases in mean temperatures and changing patterns of temperature extremes. Modeling how these health risks evolve over decadal time-scales is challenging as the severity of the impacts depends on changes in climate as well as socioeconomic conditions. Here, we show estimates of health damages as well as both direct and indirect economic damages that span climate and socioeconomic dimensions for each US state to 2050. We achieve this objective by extending the integrated assessment model (IAM), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA). First, we quantify the change in premature mortality. We identify a range of exposure-response relationships for temperature related mortality through a critical review of the literature. We then implement these relationships in the GCAM by coupling them with projections of future temperature patterns and population estimates. Second, we monetize the effect of these adverse health effects, including both direct and indirect economic costs through labor force participation and productivity along a range of possible economic pathways. Finally, we evaluate how uncertainty in the parameters and assumptions affects the range of possible estimates. We conclude that the model is sensitive to assumptions regarding exposure-response relationship and population growth. The economic damages, however, are driven by the estimates of income and GDP growth as well as the potential for adaptation measures, namely the use and effectiveness of air conditioning.

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.;

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy vulnerabilities under large uncertainty about the future socio-economic and climatic changes and to guide policymakers in charting a more sustainable pathway and avoiding maladaptive development pathways. The results show that water scarcity is increasing in up to 83% of all land area under a high-emission scenario (RCP 6.0-SSP3). Importantly, the range of uncertainty in projected water scarcity is increasing; in some regions by several orders of magnitude (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa, eastern Europe, Central Asia). This is further illustrated by focusing on a set of large river basins that will be subject both to substantial changes in basin-wide water scarcity and to strong increases in the overall range of uncertainty (e.g. the Niger, Indus, Yangtze). These conditions pose a significant challenge for water management options in those vulnerable basins, complicating decisions on needed investments in water supply infrastructure and other system improvements, and leading to the degradation of valuable resources such as non-renewable groundwater resources and water-dependent ecosystems. The results of this study call for careful and deliberative design of water policy interventions under a wide range of socio-economic and climate conditions.

Calculating net primary productivity of forest ecosystem with G4M model: case study on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, S.; Forsell, N.; Kindermann, G.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of forest is highlighted as a stepping stone for mitigating climate change. Especially rapidly urbanizing countries which have high carbon dioxide emission have large interest in calculating forest NPP under climate change. Also maximizing carbon sequestration in forest sector has became a global goal to minimize the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this research is estimating carbon stock change under the different climate change scenarios by using G4M (Global Forestry Model) model in South Korea. We analyzed four climate change scenarios in different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In this study we used higher resolution data (1kmx1km) to produce precise estimation on NPP from regionalized four climate change scenarios in G4M model. Finally, we set up other environmental variables for G4M such as water holding capacity, soil type and elevation. As a result of this study, temperature showed significant trend during 2011 to 2100. Average annual temperature increased more than 5℃ in RCP 8.5 scenario while 1℃ increased in RCP 2.6 scenario. Each standard deviation of the annual average temperature showed similar trend. Average annual precipitation showed similarity within four scenarios. However the standard deviation of average annual precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenario which indicates the ranges of precipitation is wider in RCP8.5 scenario. These results present that climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation have uncertainties in climate change scenarios. NPP has changed from 5-13tC/ha/year in RCP2.6 scenario to 9-21 tC/ha/year in RCP8.5 scenario in 2100. In addition the spatial distribution of NPP presented different trend among the scenarios. In conclusion we calculated differences in temperature and precipitation and NPP change in different climate change scenarios. This study can be applied for maximizing carbon seqestration of vegetation.

Modeling the impact of climate change on watershed discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region, northeastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiying; Fang, Haiyan

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to impact discharge and sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water discharge and sediment yield for the Yi'an watershed of the black soil region, northeastern China, based on the newly released Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) during 2071-2099. For this purpose, the TETIS model was implemented to simulate the hydrological and sedimentological responses to climate change. The model calibration (1971-1977) and validation (1978-1987) performances were rated as satisfactory. The modeling results for the four RCP scenarios relative to the control scenario under the same land use configuration indicated an increase in discharge of 16.3% (RCP 2.6), 14.3% (RCP 4.5), 36.7% (RCP 6.0) and 71.4% (RCP 8.5) and an increase in the sediment yield of 16.5% (RCP 2.6), 32.4% (RCP 4.5), 81.8% (RCP 6.0) and 170% (RCP 8.5). This implies that the negative impact of climate change on sediment yield is generally greater than that on discharge. At the monthly scale, both discharge and sediment yield increased dramatically in April to June and August to September. A more vigorous hydrological cycle and an increase in high values of sediment yield are also expected. These changes in annual discharge and sediment yield were closely linked with changes in precipitation, whereas monthly changes in late spring and autumn were mainly related to temperature. This study highlights the possible adverse impact of climate change on discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region of northeastern China and could provide scientific basis for adaptive management.

Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States.

PubMed

Egan, Patrick J; Mullin, Megan

2016-04-21

As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

A decision support tool to compare waterborne and foodborne infection and/or illness risks associated with climate change.

PubMed

Schijven, Jack; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Rutjes, Saskia; Sudre, Bertrand; Suk, Jonathan E; Semenza, Jan C

2013-12-01

Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modelling hydrological responses of Nerbioi River Basin to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Chust, Guillem; Torp, Peter

2010-05-01

Future climate change will affect aquatic systems on various pathways. Regarding the hydrological cycle, which is a very important pathway, changes in hydrometeorological variables (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) in first order impact discharges. The fourth report assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is evidence that the recent warming of the climate system would result in more frequent extreme precipitation events, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. Available research and climate model outputs indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99%). For example, it is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. In Spain, within the Atlantic basin, the hydrological variability will increase in the future due to the intensification of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This might cause flood frequency decreases, but its magnitude does not decrease. The generation of flood, its duration and magnitude are closely linked to changes in winter precipitation. The climatic conditions and relief of the Iberian Peninsula favour the generation of floods. In Spain, floods had historically strong socio-economic impacts, with more than 1525 victims in the past five decades. This upward trend of hydrological variability is expected to remain in the coming decades (medium uncertainty) when the intensification of the positive phase of the NAO index (MMA, 2006) is considered. In order to adapt or minimize climate change impacts in water resources, it is necessary to use climate projections as well as hydrological modelling tools. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the hydrological response to climate changes in flow conditions in Nerbioi river basin (Basque Country, North of Spain). So that adaptation strategies can be defined. In order to fulfil this objective four subobjectives are defined: (1)selection of the future climate projections for the case study area from a wide spectrum of possibilities; (2) model the hydrological processes of the basin with a physically distributed complex hydrological model; (3) validation of the hydrological model with observation data; and (4) runoff simulation introducing regional climate model data selected. The analysis of climate models suggests that extreme precipitation in the Basque Country increased by about 10% during the twenty-first century. This increase of extreme precipitations raised discharge and water level in Nerbioi river basin. That is why in the 21st century it is expected that the flood-prone area will expand for precipitation with a return period of 50 years. In this context, it is necessary to define and evaluate different adaptation options which are already in practice or conceivable according to the current scientific knowledge. As well as evaluate the adaptation measures in terms of their ability to lower the vulnerability of water resources to climate change. For example, land use change could be a useful tool to adapt our basin systems. The land use plays an important role on the water balance of a river by varying the proportion of precipitation that runs off and the fraction that is lost by evapotranspiration. Therefore, both climate change and adaptation strategies will have an impact on the hydrodynamic conditions of rivers; particularly the changes in flow conditions will have a severe ecological, economical and social impact. As future work, adaptation measures will introduce in the future runoff simulation in order to evaluate the effectiveness and as a decision-making tool to operational organisations.

Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chand, Savin S.; Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, Hua; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-02-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events--and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events--around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

2015-02-01

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

Rainwater harvesting possibility under climate change: A basin-scale case study over western province of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Balkhair, Khaled S.; Şen, Zekâi; Masood, Amjad

2017-06-01

Groundwater reservoirs are important water resources all over the world. Especially, they are of utmost significance for arid and semi-arid regions, and therefore, a sustainable exploitation of these reservoirs needs to be ensured. The natural and most exclusive water supplier to groundwater reservoirs in Saudi Arabia is rainfall, which is characterized by sporadic and random temporal and spatial distributions, particularly under the impacts of climate change; giving rise to uncertainty in groundwater recharge quantification. Although in Saudi Arabia, intense and frequent rainfall events are rare, but they generate significant flash floods with huge amounts of surface water. Under such circumstances, any simple but effective water storage augmentation facility such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) structures gain vital importance for sustainability of water supply and survivals in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study is to explore the possibility of RWH over a basin in the western province of Saudi Arabia called Wadi Al-Lith under climate change. Climatic data is obtained from the IPCC AR5 GCMs, which is further downscaled using a regional climate model RegCM4 for the Arabian Peninsula domain. The RegCM4 is driven to simulate climatic parameters including rainfall at 25 km grid resolution for the present climate (1971-2000), and future climate (2006-2099) with representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that more durable and longer wet durations are expected with increasing surplus rainfall amounts in the far future because of climate change impacts. Consequently, future climate scenarios are expected to enhance floods and flash floods occurrences, which call for progressive measures to harness the RWH opportunity.

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13% to 50% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13% to 85% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% ± 4%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

A megaregion-scale approach for assessing the impacts of climate change and strategic management decisions in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Miara, A.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ehsani, N.; Wollheim, W. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Dilekli, N.; Duchin, F.; Gross, B.; Bhatt, V.

2014-12-01

'Megaregions' have been identified as an important new scale of geography for policy decision-making in the United States. These regions extend beyond local boundaries (ie. cities, states) to incorporate areas with linked economies, infrastructure and land-use patterns and shared climate and environmental systems, such as watersheds. The corridor of densely connected metropolitan areas and surrounding hinterlands along the U.S. east coast from Maine to Virginia is the archetype of this type of unit: The Northeast Megaregion. The Northeast faces a unique set of policy challenges including: projections of a wetter, more extreme climate, aging and underfunded infrastructure and economically distressed rural areas. Megaregion-scale policy efforts such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and support for a regional food system have been recognized as strategic tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but decision-makers have limited information on the potential consequences of these strategies on the complex natural-human system of the Northeast, under various scenarios of global climate change. We have developed a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) as a framework to provide this type of information. We integrate terrestrial ecosystem, hydrologic, energy system and economic models to investigate scenarios of paired regional socioeconomic pathways and global climate projections. Our initial results suggest that megaregion-scale strategic decisions in the Northeast may have important consequences for both local water management and global climate change mitigation.

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

2015-10-01

Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

2015-10-27

Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

Projection of future runoff change using climate elasticity method derived from Budyko framework in major basins across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Zou, Shan; Deng, Chao

2018-03-01

This study established a climate elasticity method based on Budyko hypothesis and enhanced it by selecting the most effective Budyko-type formula to strengthen the runoff change prediction reliability. The spatiotemporal variations in hydrologic variables (i.e., runoff, precipitation and potential evaporation) during historical period were revealed first and the climate elasticities of runoff were investigated. The proposed climate elasticity method was also applied to project the spatiotemporal variations in future runoff and its key influencing factors in 35 watersheds across China. Wherein, the future climate series were retrieved by consulting the historical series, informed by four global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Wang-Tang equation was selected as the optimal Budyko-type equation for its best ability in reproducing the runoff change (with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of 0.998 and 1.36 mm, respectively). Observed runoff presents significant decreasing trends in the northern and increasing trends in the southern regions of China, and generally its change is identified to be more sensitive to climatic variables in Hai River Basin and lower Yellow River Basin. Compared to the runoff during the reference period, positive change rates in the north and negative change rates in the south of China in the mid-21st century can be practically generalized from the majority of GCMs projections. This maybe resulted from the increasing precipitation, especially in parts of northern basins. Meanwhile, GCMs project a consistently upward trend in potential evaporation although significant decreasing trends occur in the majority of catchments for the historical period. The results indicate that climate change will possibly bring some changes to the water resources over China in the mid-21st century and some countermeasures of water resources planning and management should be taken.

Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100.

PubMed

Aalto, Juha; Harrison, Stephan; Luoto, Miska

2017-09-11

The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO 2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100.

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yira, Yacouba; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Steup, Gero; Yaovi Bossa, Aymar

2017-04-01

This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)-global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the framework of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project.

After evaluation of the historical runs of the climate models' ensemble, a statistical bias correction (empirical quantile mapping) was applied to daily precipitation. Temperature and bias corrected precipitation data from the ensemble of RCMs-GCMs was then used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate water balance components.

The mean hydrological and climate variables for two periods (1971-2000 and 2021-2050) were compared to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources up to the middle of the 21st century under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate (i) a clear signal of temperature increase of about 0.1 to 2.6 °C for all members of the RCM-GCM ensemble; (ii) high uncertainty about how the catchment precipitation will evolve over the period 2021-2050; (iii) the applied bias correction method only affected the magnitude of the climate change signal; (iv) individual climate models results lead to opposite discharge change signals; and (v) the results for the RCM-GCM ensemble are too uncertain to give any clear direction for future hydrological development. Therefore, potential increase and decrease in future discharge have to be considered in climate change adaptation strategies in the catchment. The results further underline on the one hand the need for a larger ensemble of projections to properly estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the catchment and on the other hand the high uncertainty associated with climate projections for the West African region. A water-energy budget analysis provides further insight into the behavior of the catchment.

Changing Waters: Are Climate-Driven Changes in Discharge Regimes Increasing Eutrophication Risk in the Great Lakes Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Meter, K. J.; Basu, N. B.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) has experienced increasing precipitation, warming temperatures, and earlier spring thaws. During this same period, the region has been plagued by problems of water quality, with Lake Erie, in particular, experiencing a re-emergence of major eutrophication events, including an increased incidence of Harmful Algal Blooms. Although the prevailing paradigm is that eutrophication of inland waters is directly correlated with total phosphorus (P) inputs, recent decades have seen a decrease in the total P being delivered to the lakes from contributing watersheds. This apparent disconnect between inputs and outputs, i.e. decreasing P inputs but increased eutrophication, has led some to speculate that loading of total P is an insufficient metric of eutrophication risk and that increasing ratios of soluble reactive P (SRP) in relation to the total P (TP) entering inland water bodies may be a more important driver of algal growth. We hypothesize that changes in seasonal discharge patterns may be contributing to changes in the forms of P being delivered to the lakes, potentially due to changes in delivery pathways-for example surface pathways are more dominant in spring snowmelt, while shallow subsurface and tile pathways are more dominant during winter freeze-thaw events. To test this hypothesis, we have utilized data from more than 200 gaging stations across the GLB to explore the influences of climate and changing hydrologic patterns on biogeochemical processing and transport within the GLB. More specifically, we have asked the following questions: 1) How are discharge patterns changing across the GLB? 2) Are SRP:TP ratios increasing in subwatersheds of the GLB, and what are the spatial patterns in these changes? 3) Are climate-related changes in seasonality, e.g. earlier snowmelt, decreasing snowfall, longer growing seasons, linked to increased ratios of bioavailable P? Our results suggest that changes in precipitation as well as milder winters have led to a seasonal homogenization of discharge within the GLB, with decreases in spring flows but significant increases in winter discharge. Our results also show significant increases in SRP:TP ratios across the GLB, largely driven by the increased winter discharge and high SRP concentrations during the winter months.

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability.

PubMed

Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2013-10-22

Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25-30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century.

Linking climate change and karst hydrology to evaluate species vulnerability: The Edwards and Madison aquifers (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, B. J.; Long, A. J.; Stamm, J. F.; Poteet, M.; Symstad, A.

2013-12-01

Karst aquifers present an extreme case of flow along structurally variable pathways, making them highly dynamic systems and therefore likely to respond rapidly to climate change. In turn, many biological communities and ecosystems associated with karst are sensitive to hydrologic changes. We explored how three sites in the Edwards aquifer (Texas) and two sites in the Madison aquifer (South Dakota) might respond to projected climate change from 2011 to 2050. Ecosystems associated with these karst aquifers support federally listed endangered and threatened species and state-listed species of concern, including amphibians, birds, insects, and plants. The vulnerability of selected species associated with projected climate change was assessed. The Advanced Research Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate projected climate at a 36-km grid spacing for three weather stations near the study sites, using boundary and initial conditions from the global climate model Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and an A2 emissions scenario. Daily temperature and precipitation projections from the WRF model were used as input for the hydrologic Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow (RRAWFLOW) model and the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) model. RRAWFLOW is a lumped-parameter model that simulates hydrologic response at a single site, combining the responses of quick and slow flow that commonly characterize karst aquifers. CCVI uses historical and projected climate and hydrologic metrics to determine the vulnerability of selected species on the basis of species exposure to climate change, sensitivity to factors associated with climate change, and capacity to adapt to climate change. An upward trend in temperature was projected for 2011-2050 at all three weather stations; there was a trend (downward) in annual precipitation only for the weather station in Texas. A downward trend in mean annual spring flow or groundwater level was projected for all of the Edwards sites, but there was no significant trend for the Madison sites. Of 16 Edwards aquifer species evaluated (four amphibians, six arthropods, one fish, one mollusk, and four plants), 12 were scored as highly or moderately vulnerable under the projected climate change scenario. In contrast, all of the 8 Madison aquifer species evaluated (two mammals, one bird, one mollusk, and four plants) were scored as moderately vulnerable, stable, or intermediate between the two. The inclusion of hydrologic projections in the vulnerability assessment was essential for interpreting the effects of climate change on aquatic species of conservations concern, such as endemic salamanders. The linkage of climate, hydrologic, and vulnerability models provided a bridge to project the effects of global climate change on local karst aquifer and stream systems and selected species.

Collaboration pathway(s) using new tools for optimizing operational climate monitoring from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmuth, Douglas B.; Selva, Daniel; Dwyer, Morgan M.

2014-10-01

Consistently collecting the earth's climate signatures remains a priority for world governments and international scientific organizations. Architecting a solution requires transforming scientific missions into an optimized robust `operational' constellation that addresses the needs of decision makers, scientific investigators and global users for trusted data. The application of new tools offers pathways for global architecture collaboration. Recent (2014) rulebased decision engine modeling runs that targeted optimizing the intended NPOESS architecture, becomes a surrogate for global operational climate monitoring architecture(s). This rule-based systems tools provide valuable insight for Global climate architectures, through the comparison and evaluation of alternatives considered and the exhaustive range of trade space explored. A representative optimization of Global ECV's (essential climate variables) climate monitoring architecture(s) is explored and described in some detail with thoughts on appropriate rule-based valuations. The optimization tools(s) suggest and support global collaboration pathways and hopefully elicit responses from the audience and climate science shareholders.

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

PubMed Central

Peterson, A. Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M.

2017-01-01

Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. PMID:29206879

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Alkishe, Abdelghafar A; Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2017-01-01

Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Climatic Controls on Forest Productivity in Western North America; Variability, Covariability, and Projected Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Mote, P.; Sparrow, S.; Massey, N.

2016-12-01

The forests of western North America serve as a carbon sink sequestering carbon and slowing the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Though still positive, the rate of net carbon uptake has been in decline over the past two decades. Regional drought has been shown to slow forest productivity and net carbon uptake despite warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. With drought conditions projected to increase in frequency and severity under climate change there is concern that these forests' capacity as an effective carbon sink will continue to decrease in the future. To investigate how changes in regional hydroclimate may affect future carbon uptake in western US forests we dynamically downscaled global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3P with the land surface scheme MOSES2. We generated a 100-member ensemble of simulations for an historical period (1985-2015) and mid-21st century period (2030-2060) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We evaluated the effects of regional changes in atmospheric moisture demand, seasonality of water supply, and water stress on forest productivity and carbon uptake. We investigated how these changes in hydroclimate interact with the relaxing of temperature controls. This work can inform future adaptation efforts through improving our understanding of climatic controls on forest carbon sequestration.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian

2014-03-04

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian

2014-01-01

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265

European scale climate information services for water use sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Donnelly, Chantal; Strömbäck, Lena; Capell, René; Ludwig, Fulco

2015-09-01

This study demonstrates a climate information service for pan-European water use sectors that are vulnerable to climate change induced hydrological changes, including risk and safety (disaster preparedness), agriculture, energy (hydropower and cooling water use for thermoelectric power) and environment (water quality). To study the climate change impacts we used two different hydrological models forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the lowest (2.6) and highest (8.5) representative concentration pathways (RCP). Selected indicators of water related vulnerability for each sector were then calculated from the hydrological model results. Our results show a distinct north-south divide in terms of climate change impacts; in the south the water availability will reduce while in the north water availability will increase. Across different climate models precipitation and streamflow increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, but the latitude at which this change occurs varies depending on the GCM. Hydrological extremes are increasing over large parts of Europe. The agricultural sector will be affected by reduced water availability (in the south) and increased drought. Both streamflow and soil moistures droughts are projected to increase in most parts of Europe except in northern Scandinavia and the Alps. The energy sector will be affected by lower hydropower potential in most European countries and reduced cooling water availability due to higher water temperatures and reduced summer river flows. Our results show that in particular in the Mediterranean the pressures are high because of increasing drought which will have large impacts on both the agriculture and energy sectors. In France and Italy this is combined with increased flood hazards. Our results show important impacts of climate change on European water use sectors indicating a clear need for adaptation.

Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

2013-04-01

In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework provide a good approximation for the median, and the lower and upper bound of 90% probability distribution of 21st century climate change. Five member ensembles were carried out for each choice of parameters using different initial conditions. With these simulations, we investigate the role of emissions scenarios (climate policies), the global climate response (climate sensitivity) and natural variability (initial conditions) on the uncertainty in future climate changes over Northern Eurasia. A particular emphasis is made on future changes in extreme events, including frost days, extreme summer temperature and extreme summer and winter precipitation.

Projections of Ocean Acidification Under the U.N. Framework Convention of Climate Change Using a Reduced-Form Climate Carbon-Cycle Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartin, C.

2016-02-01

Ocean chemistry is quickly changing in response to continued anthropogenic emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. Mean surface ocean pH has already decreased by 0.1 units relative to the preindustrial era. We use an open-source, simple climate and carbon cycle model ("Hector") to investigate future changes in ocean acidification (pH and calcium carbonate saturations) under the climate agreement from the United Nations Convention on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) of Parties in Paris 2015 (COP 21). Hector is a reduced-form, very fast-executing model that can emulate the global mean climate of the CMIP5 models, as well as the inorganic carbon cycle in the upper ocean, allowing us to investigate future changes in ocean acidification. We ran Hector under three different emissions trajectories, using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify model uncertainty and capture a range of possible ocean acidification changes. The first trajectory is a business-as-usual scenario comparable to a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the second a scenario with the COP 21 commitments enacted, and the third an idealized scenario keeping global temperature change to 2°C, comparable to a RCP 2.6. Preliminary results suggest that under the COP 21 agreements ocean pH at 2100 will decrease by 0.2 units and surface saturations of aragonite (calcite) will decrease by 0.9 (1.4) units relative to 1850. Under the COP 21 agreement the world's oceans will be committed to a degree of ocean acidification, however, these changes may be within the range of natural variability evident in some paleo records.

Climate change, estuaries and anadromous fish habitat in the northeastern United States: models, downscaling and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, B.; Gaitan, C. F.; Tommasi, D.; Saba, V. S.; Stock, C. A.; Dixon, K. W.

2016-02-01

Estuaries of the northeastern United States provide essential habitat for many anadromous fishes, across a range of life stages. Climate change is likely to impact estuarine environments and habitats through multiple pathways. Increasing air temperatures will result in a warming water column, and potentially increased stratification. In addition, changes to precipitation patterns may alter freshwater inflow dynamics, leading to altered seasonal salinity regimes. However, the spatial resolution of global climate models is generally insufficient to resolve these processes at the scale of individual estuaries. Global models can be downscaled to a regional resolution using a variety of dynamical and statistical methods. In this study, we examined projections of estuarine conditions, and future habitat extent, for several anadromous fishes in the Chesapeake Bay using different statistical downscaling methods. Sources of error from physical and biological models were quantified, and key areas of uncertainty were highlighted. Results suggested that future projections of the distribution and recruitment of species most strongly linked to freshwater flow dynamics had the highest levels of uncertainty. The sensitivity of different life stages to environmental conditions, and the population-level responses of anadromous species to climate change, were identified as important areas for further research.

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enrich the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, change vegetation dynamics and influence the availability of water at the catchment scale. This study combines a nonlinear model for estimating changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to climatic fluctuations with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to improve catchment streamflow prediction under a changing climate. The combined model was applied to 13 gauged sub-catchments with different land cover types (crop, pasture and tree) in the Goulburn-Broken catchment, Australia, for the "Millennium Drought" (1997-2009) relative to the period 1983-1995, and for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5) which were compared with the baseline historical period of 1981-2010. This region was projected to be warmer and mostly drier in the future as predicted by 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) runs from 15 global climate models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios. The results showed that during the Millennium Drought there was about a 29.7-66.3 % reduction in mean annual runoff due to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. When drought-induced changes in LAI were included, smaller reductions in mean annual runoff of between 29.3 and 61.4 % were predicted. The proportional increase in runoff due to modeling LAI was 1.3-10.2 % relative to not including LAI. For projected climate change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, ignoring the LAI response to changing climate could lead to a further reduction in mean annual runoff of between 2.3 and 27.7 % in the near-term (2021-2050) and 2.3 to 23.1 % later in the century (2071-2100) relative to modeling the dynamic response of LAI to precipitation and temperature changes. Similar results (near-term 2.5-25.9 % and end of century 2.6-24.2 %) were found for climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Incorporating climate-induced changes in LAI in the VIC model reduced the projected declines in streamflow and confirms the importance of including the effects of changes in LAI in future projections of streamflow.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

PubMed Central

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-01-01

Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied land use planning. The findings of this study will be useful for the water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land use and climate changes in the study catchment. Keywords: land use change, climate change, hydrological impact assessment, Samin catchment

Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

2015-12-01

In most studies, climate change is approached by focusing on the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future, emphasizing stronger warming as we move further from the current climate. Under climate conditions that are continuously evolving, human systems might have to constantly adapt to a changing target. We propose here an alternative approach, and consider indicators of the pace of temperature change and its effects on temperature distributions estimated from projections of an ensemble of 18 General Circulation Models. The pace is represented by a rate defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP 8.5), the warming rate strongly increases over the twenty-first century, with a maximum reached before 2080. Whilst northern high-latitudes witness the highest temperature rise, all other latitudes highlight at least a doubling in the warming rate compared to the current period. The spatial extent of significant shifts in annual temperature distributions between two subsequent 20-year periods is projected to be at least four times larger than in the current period. They are mainly located in tropical areas, such as West Africa and South-East Asia. The fraction of the world population exposed to these shifts grows from 8% to 60% from around 2060 onwards, i.e. reaching 6 billions people. In contrast, low mitigation measures (RCP 6.0) are sufficient to keep the warming rate similar to current values. Under the medium mitigation pathway (RCP 4.5), population exposure to significant shifts drops to negligible values by the end of the century. Strong mitigation measures (RCP 2.6) are the only option that generates a global return to historical conditions regarding our indicators. Considering the pace of change can bring an alternative way to interact with climate impacts and adaptation communities.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Cheung, William W L

2018-02-01

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

2017-03-01

Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.

2013-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli

2017-11-01

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Index-based framework for assessing climate change impact on wetlands in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Keeffe, Joanna; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Utratna, Marta; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Okruszko, Tomasz

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to impact the water cycle through changing the precipitation levels, river streamflows, soil moisture dynamics and therefore pose a threat to groundwater and surface-water fed wetlands and their biodiversity. We examined the past trends and future impacts of climate change on streamflow and soil water content. Simulation results from 1971 to 2000 (historical period) and from 2021 to 2100 (future period) were obtained with the use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Hydrological modelling was driven by a set of nine EUROCORDEX Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP's) of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories: 4.5 and 8.5. A special focus was made on water dependent habitats within the Special Areas of Conservation (SAC's) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. A habitat assessment was carried out to distinguish groundwater and surface water fed wetlands. By establishing threshold values of streamflow at bankfull flow we were able to identify flood events. Changes in frequency of the floods informed about the alteration to the water supply for wetlands reliant on inundation. The groundwater-fed wetlands were assessed on the basis of the soil water content. The model outputs were used to develop indices which were calculated for the climate change scenarios. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil water content and streamflow dynamics with average annual precipitation showed largely consistent patterns. The developed indicators are sensitive to projected changes in hydrologic regime in the conditions of changing climate. The results show influence of climate change on floodplain and groundwater-fed wetlands and show the number and kind of wetlands threatened in different regions of Poland. SAC's will play an important role of buffers and water regulators as soil water content in SAC's is projected to be higher than average for the future scenarios.

Sustained Assessment Metadata as a Pathway to Trustworthiness of Climate Science Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, S. M.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

The Sustained Assessment process has produced a suite of climate change reports: The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, The State Climate Summaries, as well as the anticipated Climate Science Special Report and Fourth National Climate Assessment. Not only are these groundbreaking reports of climate change science, they are also the first suite of climate science reports to provide access to complex metadata directly connected to the report figures and graphics products. While the basic metadata documentation requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, Sustained Assessment products are also deemed Highly Influential Scientific Assessments, which further requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the Sustained Assessment embarked on building a system for not only collecting and documenting metadata to the required standards, but one that also provides consumers unprecedented access to the underlying data and methods. As our process and documentation have evolved, the value of both continue to grow in parallel with the consumer expectation of quality, accessible climate science information. This presentation will detail the how the TSU accomplishes the mandated requirements with their metadata collection and documentation process, as well as the technical solution designed to demonstrate compliance while also providing access to the content for the general public. We will also illustrate how our accessibility platforms guide consumers through the Assessment science at a level of transparency that builds trust and confidence in the report content.

Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muñoz, David J.; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A.W.

2016-01-01

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

Ecohydrological Responses of Dense Canopies to Environmental Variability Part 1: Interplay Between Vertical Structure and Photosynthetic Pathway

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vegetation acclimation to changing climate, in particular elevated atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), has been observed to include modifications to the biochemical and eco physiological functioning of leaves and the structural components of the canopy. These responses have the poten...

Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

PubMed

Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

2013-01-01

Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Small System—High-Resolution Study of Metabolic Adaptation in the Central Metabolic Pathway to Temperate Climates in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Lavington, Erik; Cogni, Rodrigo; Kuczynski, Caitlin; Koury, Spencer; Behrman, Emily L.; O’Brien, Katherine R.; Schmidt, Paul S.; Eanes, Walter F.

2014-01-01

In this article, we couple the geographic variation in 127 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies in genes of 46 enzymes of central metabolism with their associated cis-expression variation to predict latitudinal or climatic-driven gene expression changes in the metabolic architecture of Drosophila melanogaster. Forty-two percent of the SNPs in 65% of the genes show statistically significant clines in frequency with latitude across the 20 local population samples collected from southern Florida to Ontario. A number of SNPs in the screened genes are also associated with significant expression variation within the Raleigh population from North Carolina. A principal component analysis of the full variance–covariance matrix of latitudinal changes in SNP-associated standardized gene expression allows us to identify those major genes in the pathway and its associated branches that are likely targets of natural selection. When embedded in a central metabolic context, we show that these apparent targets are concentrated in the genes of the upper glycolytic pathway and pentose shunt, those controlling glycerol shuttle activity, and finally those enzymes associated with the utilization of glutamate and pyruvate. These metabolites possess high connectivity and thus may be the points where flux balance can be best shifted. We also propose that these points are conserved points associated with coupling energy homeostasis and energy sensing in mammals. We speculate that the modulation of gene expression at specific points in central metabolism that are associated with shifting flux balance or possibly energy-state sensing plays a role in adaptation to climatic variation. PMID:24770333

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

2018-05-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

Modeling the role of groundwater and vegetation in the hydrological response of tropical glaciated watersheds to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, G. H. C.; Wickert, A. D.; McLaughlin, R.; La Frenierre, J.; Liess, S.; Saberi, L.

2016-12-01

Climate change projections show greater rates at higher elevations, making tropical glaciated regions some of the most vulnerable hydrological systems and the earliest windows into changing conditions in mountainous watersheds. Many of the subsistence agrarian communities below Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, experience water stress, heightening the urgency to understand the hydrological impacts of climate change. Previous hydrochemical and physical observations suggest that a significant fraction of glacial melt may first recharge underlying groundwater before discharging to streams at lower elevations. This has important implications for tracking hydrological response to climate change, due to differences in the spatiotemporal behavior of surface water vs. groundwater. However, differentiating meltwater-sourced and precipitation-sourced groundwater throughout the watershed poses a challenge in elucidating the influence of accelerated but finite glacial melt on streamflow. In addition to glacial melt, recently noted upslope vegetation migration on Chimborazo will likely complicate future predictions of water availability by influencing the relative amounts of groundwater sources and changing discharge through altered evapotranspiration along riparian zones. To investigate the roles of groundwater pathways and vegetation on glacial melt contributions to streamflow, we implement the coupled groundwater/rainfall-runoff model GSFLOW. We infer hydrogeological model inputs from geological maps of Chimborazo and vegetation properties from a combination of remotely sensed imagery and in-situ surveys. Dynamically downscaled meteorological state variables, checked against field data, force the model. Such a model enables the quantification of the current meltwater contribution to streamflow at critical water extraction points and allows us to probe potential meltwater and water resource changes under future climate change scenarios.

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Pandit, Shreejana

2018-01-01

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal. PMID:29360797

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

2016-01-01

Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R.

2009-12-01

Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The disaster research and emergency management communities have shown over that early warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards (including those resulting from low levels of preparedness), existing strategies on the ground, and likely pathways to mitigate the loss and damage in the particular context in which they arise. Effective adaptations require information for long-term infrastructural planning and as critically deliberative mechanisms to structure learning and redesign in the face of emergent problems. Adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping rather than preventing problems. Reduction in vulnerability will require anticipatory deliberative processes focused on incorporating adaptation into long-term municipal and public service planning, including energy, water, and health services, in the face of changing climate-related risks combined with ongoing changes in population, land use and development patterns.

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperature in Regulated River Systems: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Zhang, X.; Yearsley, J. R.; Voisin, N.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and associated changes in air temperature and precipitation are projected to impact natural water resources quantity, quality and timing. In the past century, over 280 major dams were built in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) (GRanD database). Regulation of the river system greatly alters natural streamflow as well as stream temperature. Understanding the impacts of climate change on regulated systems, particularly within the context of the Clean Water Act, can inform stakeholders how to maintain and adapt water operations (e.g. regulation, withdrawals). In this study, we use a new modeling framework to study climate change impacts on stream temperatures of a regulated river system. We simulate runoff with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model, regulated streamflow and reservoir operations with a large-scale river routing-reservoir model (MOSART-WM), and stream temperature using the River Basin Model (RBM). We enhanced RBM with a two-layer thermal stratification reservoir module. This modeling framework captures both the impact of reservoir regulation on streamflow and the reservoir stratification effects on downstream temperatures. We evaluate changes in flow and stream temperatures based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We simulate river temperature with meteorological forcings that have been downscaled with the Multivariate Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. We are specifically interested in analyzing extreme periods during which stream temperature exceeds water quality standards. In this study, we focus on identifying whether these extreme temperature periods coincide with low flows, and whether the frequency and duration of these operationally-relevant periods will increase under future climate change.

Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends.

PubMed

Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

2008-11-13

The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Thorburn, Peter

2017-01-01

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yongwen; Wang, Tao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong

2016-03-01

Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual climate variations over the 21st century in the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, interannual temperature sensitivities of NBP (γTempNBP), NPP (γTempNPP), and Rh (γTempRh) remain relatively stable at global scale, yet with large differences among ESMs and spatial heterogeneity. Modeled γTempNPP and γTempRh appear to increase in parallel in boreal regions, resulting in unchanged γTempNBP. Tropical γTempNBP decreases in most models, due to decreasing γTempNPP and relatively stable γTempRh. Across models, the changes in γTempNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γTempNPP rather than changes in γTempRh, at both global and regional scales. Interannual precipitation sensitivities of global NBP (γPrecNBP), NPP (γPrecNPP), and Rh (γPrecRh) are predicted not to change significantly, with large differences among ESMs. Across models, the changes in γPrecNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γPrecNPP rather than changes in γPrecRh in temperate regions, but not in other regions. Changes in the interannual climate sensitivities of carbon fluxes are consistent across RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 but larger in more intensive scenarios. More effort should be considered to improve terrestrial carbon flux responses to interannual climate variability, e.g., incorporating biogeochemical processes of nutrient limitation, permafrost dynamics, and microbial decomposition.

Detecting climate change oriented and human induced changes in stream temperature across the Southeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Voisin, N.; Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Nijssen, B.; Yearsley, J. R.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

In many areas, climate change is expected to alter the flow regime and increase stream temperature, especially during summer low flow periods. During these low flow periods, water management increases flows in order to sustain human activities such as water for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. Water extraction from rivers during warm season can increase stream temperature while reservoir regulation may cool downstream river temperatures by releasing cool water from deep layers. Thus, it is reasonable to hypothesize that water management changes the sensitivity of the stream temperature regime to climate change when compared to unmanaged resources. The time of emergence of change refers to the point in time when observations, or model simulations, show statistically significant changes from a given baseline period, i.e. above natural variability. Here we aim to address two questions by investigating the time of emergence of changes in stream temperature in the southeastern United States: what is the sensitivity of stream temperature under regulated flow conditions to climate change and what is the contribution of water management in increasing or decreasing stream temperature sensitivity to climate change. We simulate regulated flow by using runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model as input into a large scale river routing and reservoir model MOSART-WM. The River Basin Model (RBM), a distributed stream temperature model, includes a two-layer thermal stratification module to simulate stream temperature in regulated river systems. We evaluate the timing of emergence of changes in flow and stream temperature based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We analyze the difference in emergence of change between natural and regulated streamflow. Insights will be provided toward applications for multiple sectors of activities including electrical resources adequacy studies over the southeastern U.S.

Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: A case of Jordan.

PubMed

Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto; Al Khatib, Amal N; Allouzi, Siham F

2018-01-01

Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s-2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s-2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO 2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO 2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO 2 levels (R 2 >0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO 2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2kgha -1 mm -1 . Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

Increasing human dominance of tropical forests.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L; Edwards, David P; Galbraith, David

2015-08-21

Tropical forests house over half of Earth's biodiversity and are an important influence on the climate system. These forests are experiencing escalating human influence, altering their health and the provision of important ecosystem functions and services. Impacts started with hunting and millennia-old megafaunal extinctions (phase I), continuing via low-intensity shifting cultivation (phase II), to today's global integration, dominated by intensive permanent agriculture, industrial logging, and attendant fires and fragmentation (phase III). Such ongoing pressures, together with an intensification of global environmental change, may severely degrade forests in the future (phase IV, global simplification) unless new "development without destruction" pathways are established alongside climate change-resilient landscape designs. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change.

PubMed

Lamsal, Pramod; Kumar, Lalit; Aryal, Achyut; Atreya, Kishor

2018-01-25

Climate change will impact the dynamics of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). However, the ability of IAPS under changing climate to invade mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayan region, is less known. This study investigates the current and future habitat of five IAPS of the Himalayan region using MaxEnt and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Two invasive species, Ageratum conyzoides and Parthenium hysterophorus, will lose overall suitable area by 2070, while Ageratina adenophora, Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara will gain suitable areas and all of them will retain most of the current habitat as stable. The southern Himalayan foothills will mostly conserve species ecological niches, while suitability of all the five species will decrease with increasing elevation. Such invasion dynamics in the Himalayan region could have impacts on numerous ecosystems and their biota, ecosystem services and human well-being. Trans-boundary response strategies suitable to the local context of the region could buffer some of the likely invasion impacts.

Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This source of uncertainty dominates both uncertainty over temperature projections (climate uncertainty) and uncertainty over how sensitive crops or profits are to changes in temperature (response uncertainty). Therefore, constraining how quickly farmers are likely to adapt will be essential for improving our understanding of how climate change will affect food production over the next few decades.

Changes in the structural composition and reactivity of Acer rubrum leaf litter tannins exposed to warming and altered precipitation: climatic stress-induced tannins are more reactive.

PubMed

Tharayil, Nishanth; Suseela, Vidya; Triebwasser, Daniella J; Preston, Caroline M; Gerard, Patrick D; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2011-07-01

• Climate change could increase the frequency with which plants experience abiotic stresses, leading to changes in their metabolic pathways. These stresses may induce the production of compounds that are structurally and biologically different from constitutive compounds. • We studied how warming and altered precipitation affected the composition, structure, and biological reactivity of leaf litter tannins in Acer rubrum at the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, in Massachusetts, USA. • Warmer and drier climatic conditions led to higher concentrations of protective compounds, including flavonoids and cutin. The abundance and structure of leaf tannins also responded consistently to climatic treatments. Drought and warming in combination doubled the concentration of total tannins, which reached 30% of leaf-litter DW. This treatment also produced condensed tannins with lower polymerization and a greater proportion of procyanidin units, which in turn reduced sequestration of tannins by litter fiber. Furthermore, because of the structural flexibility of these tannins, litter from this treatment exhibited five times more enzyme (β-glucosidase) complexation capacity on a per-weight basis. Warmer and wetter conditions decreased the amount of foliar condensed tannins. • Our finding that warming and drought result in the production of highly reactive tannins is novel, and highly relevant to climate change research as these tannins, by immobilizing microbial enzymes, could slow litter decomposition and thus carbon and nutrient cycling in a warmer, drier world. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Uncertainties in Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessments by Sub-setting GCMs Based on Annual as well as Crop Growing Period under Rice Based Farming System of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Panwar, A. S.; Meena, M. S.; Singh, S. V.; Singh, B.; Paudel, G. P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Ruane, A. C.; McDermid, S.; Boote, K. J.; Porter, C.; Valdivia, R. O.

2016-12-01

Integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity is a challenge to the scientific community due to uncertainties of input data, particularly the climate, soil, crop calibration and socio-economic dataset. However, the uncertainty due to selection of GCMs is the major source due to complex underlying processes involved in initial as well as the boundary conditions dealt in solving the air-sea interactions. Under Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Indo-Gangetic Plains Regional Research Team investigated the uncertainties caused due to selection of GCMs through sub-setting based on annual as well as crop-growth period of rice-wheat systems in AgMIP Integrated Assessment methodology. The AgMIP Phase II protocols were used to study the linking of climate-crop-economic models for two study sites Meerut and Karnal to analyse the sensitivity of current production systems to climate change. Climate Change Projections were made using 29 CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 during mid-century period (2040-2069). Two crop models (APSIM & DSSAT) were used. TOA-MD economic model was used for integrated assessment. Based on RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways), some of the parameters, which are not possible to get through modeling, derived from literature and interactions with stakeholders incorporated into the TOA-MD model for integrated assessment.

21st Century Sea-Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Luke P.; Grinsted, Aslak; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

2018-02-01

As global average sea-level rises in the early part of this century there is great interest in how much global and local sea level will change in the forthcoming decades. The Paris Climate Agreement's proposed temperature thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C have directed the research community to ask what differences occur in the climate system for these two states. We have developed a novel approach to combine climate model outputs that follow specific temperature pathways to make probabilistic projections of sea-level in a 1.5°C and 2°C world. We find median global sea-level (GSL) projections for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways of 44 and 50 cm, respectively. The 90% uncertainty ranges (5%-95%) are both around 48 cm by 2100. In addition, we take an alternative approach to estimate the contribution from ice sheets by using a semi-empirical GSL model. Here we find median projections of 58 and 68 cm for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways. The 90% uncertainty ranges are 67 and 82 cm respectively. Regional projections show similar patterns for both temperature pathways, though differences vary between the median projections (2-10 cm) and 95th percentile (5-20 cm) for the bulk of oceans using process-based approach and 10-15 cm (median) and 15-25 cm (95th percentile) using the semi-empirical approach.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

Climate Change Impacts on Rivers and Implications for Electricity Generation in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Corsi, F.; Cohen, S. M.; Tidwell, V. C.; Newmark, R. L.; Prousevitch, A.

2015-12-01

The contemporary power sector in the United States is heavily reliant on water resources to provide cooling water for thermoelectric generation. Efficient thermoelectric plant operations require large volumes of water at sufficiently cool temperatures for their cooling process. The total amount of water that is withdrawn or consumed for cooling and any potential declines in efficiencies are determined by the sector's fuel mix and cooling technologies. As such, the impact of climate change, and the extent of impact, on the power sector is shaped by the choice of electricity generation technologies that will be built over the coming decades. In this study, we model potential changes in river discharge and temperature in the contiguous US under a set of climate scenarios to year 2050 using the Water Balance Model-Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M). Together, these models quantify, in high-resolution (3-min), river temperatures, discharge and power plant efficiency losses associated with changes in available cooling water that incorporates climate, hydrology, river network dynamics and multi-plant impacts, on both single power plant and regional scales. Results are used to assess the aptness and vulnerability of contemporary and alternative electricity generation pathways to changes in climate and water availability for cooling purposes, and the concomitant impacts on power plant operating efficiencies. We assess the potential impacts by comparing six regions (Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest as in the National Climate Assessment (2014)) across the US. These experiments allow us to assess tradeoffs among electricity-water-climate to provide useful insight for decision-makers managing regional power production and aquatic environments.

Land management strategies for improving water quality in biomass production under changing climate

DOE PAGES

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

2017-03-07

Here, the Corn Belt states are the largest corn-production areas in the United States because of their fertile land and ideal climate. This attribute is particularly important as the region also plays a key role in the production of bioenergy feedstock. In much of the nation, agricultural nutrients are a primary cause of water quality degradation. This study focuses on potential change in streamflow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to climate change and land management practices in the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) watershed, Iowa. Thirty-six projections from select Regional Climate Models (RCM) for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.5, 4.5,more » and 8.5 were used to develop climate change scenarios for the SFIR watershed and incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The watershed is covered primarily with annual crops (corn and soybeans). Three scenarios of land use change and conservation practices were further developed to examine their impacts on water quality under historical and modeled future climate. With cropland conversion to switchgrass, stover harvest, and best management practices (BMPs) (such as establishing riparian buffers and applying cover crops) significant reductions in nutrients were observed in the SFIR watershed under historical climate and future climate scenarios. Under historical climate, suspended sediment (SS), total nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) at the outlet point of the SFIR watershed could decrease by up to 56.7%, 32.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, compare with current land use when a portion of the cropland is converted to switchgrass and cover crop is in place. Climate change could cause an increase in 12.0% (SS), 4.7% (N), and 7.7% (P) from current land use. This increase could be mitigated through land management and practices by 53.6% (SS), 27.8 (N), and 7.0% (P). Climate change reduced crop yield. Nutrient and sediments loadings distributed heterogeneously across the watershed. Water footprint analysis further revealed changes in green water that are highly dependent on land management scenarios. The study highlights the versatile approaches in landscape management that are available to address climate change adaptation and acknowledged the complex nature of different perspectives in water sustainability. Further study involving implementing landscape design and management using long-term field to watershed water monitoring data is necessary to verify the findings and moving towards watershed specific regional programs for climate adaptation.« less

Land management strategies for improving water quality in biomass production under changing climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

Here, the Corn Belt states are the largest corn-production areas in the United States because of their fertile land and ideal climate. This attribute is particularly important as the region also plays a key role in the production of bioenergy feedstock. In much of the nation, agricultural nutrients are a primary cause of water quality degradation. This study focuses on potential change in streamflow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to climate change and land management practices in the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) watershed, Iowa. Thirty-six projections from select Regional Climate Models (RCM) for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.5, 4.5,more » and 8.5 were used to develop climate change scenarios for the SFIR watershed and incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The watershed is covered primarily with annual crops (corn and soybeans). Three scenarios of land use change and conservation practices were further developed to examine their impacts on water quality under historical and modeled future climate. With cropland conversion to switchgrass, stover harvest, and best management practices (BMPs) (such as establishing riparian buffers and applying cover crops) significant reductions in nutrients were observed in the SFIR watershed under historical climate and future climate scenarios. Under historical climate, suspended sediment (SS), total nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) at the outlet point of the SFIR watershed could decrease by up to 56.7%, 32.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, compare with current land use when a portion of the cropland is converted to switchgrass and cover crop is in place. Climate change could cause an increase in 12.0% (SS), 4.7% (N), and 7.7% (P) from current land use. This increase could be mitigated through land management and practices by 53.6% (SS), 27.8 (N), and 7.0% (P). Climate change reduced crop yield. Nutrient and sediments loadings distributed heterogeneously across the watershed. Water footprint analysis further revealed changes in green water that are highly dependent on land management scenarios. The study highlights the versatile approaches in landscape management that are available to address climate change adaptation and acknowledged the complex nature of different perspectives in water sustainability. Further study involving implementing landscape design and management using long-term field to watershed water monitoring data is necessary to verify the findings and moving towards watershed specific regional programs for climate adaptation.« less

Climate consequences of large-scale land-use changes as climate engineering tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Dorothea; Kracher, Daniela; Reick, Christian; Pongratz, Julia

2015-04-01

Terrestrial carbon sinks are much-discussed as climate engineering methods both in politics and science. The debate focuses mostly on their potential for carbon sequestration and fossil-fuel substitution, whereas other effects such as changes in heat and water fluxes are often ignored. We assess potentials and side-effects of two different land-use types suggested as climate engineering tools, forest and herbaceous biomass plantations. We integrate herbaceous biomass plantations as new plant functional types into the land component (JSBACH) of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Herbaceous biomass plantations alter surface albedo, carbon and water cycles compared to forests. We adapted the JSBACH carbon cycle (assimilation and respiration) to reflect a highly productive biomass grass and the phenology to account for harvests just before the beginning of the growing season. The harvested material is transferred to a separate pool that can be adapted to reflect different biomass utilization pathways. Where possible, the model was validated using yield measurements and water-use efficiency calculations available from literature data. We compare the potentials and side-effects of afforestation and herbaceous biomass plantations in a plausible global scenario: under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, large areas of agricultural lands are projected to be abandoned as food production intensifies on the most productive soils. We intend to model the climatic consequences of using these abandoned croplands for afforestation or biomass plantations, under an RCP 8.5 forcing (high CO2 emissions). We emphasize differences between biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use on climate and how these factors interact on the local and global scale. Apart from direct climatic effects (energy, water, and carbon fluxes), we attempt to consistently account for fossil-fuel substitution effects of biomass plantations in a coupled model. This study comprises the fist part of a larger project analyzing four different land-use types: unmanaged forest, managed forest, woody biomass plantations and herbaceous biomass plantations. Our study is part of the interdisciplinary program 'Climate Engineering: Risks, Challenges and Opportunities?' which allows for a consistent comparison of land-based climate engineering to other methods such as solar radiation management or ocean alkalinization.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

PubMed

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

2015-01-01

Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

PubMed Central

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Gosling, Simon N.; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T.; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-01-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. PMID:24344289

Hydrologic climate change impacts in the Columbia River Basin and their sensitivity to methodological choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Mao, Y.; Rupp, D. E.

2016-12-01

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the United States' Pacific Northwest (PNW) is highly regulated for hydropower generation, flood control, fish survival, irrigation and navigation. Historically it has had a hydrologic regime characterized by winter precipitation in the form of snow, followed by a spring peak in streamflow from snowmelt. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter this regime, causing changes to streamflow timing and volume. While numerous hydrologic studies have been conducted across the CRB, the impact of methodological choices in hydrologic modeling has not been as heavily investigated. To better understand their impact on the spread in modeled projections of hydrological change, we ran simulations involving permutations of a variety of methodological choices. We used outputs from ten global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. After downscaling the GCM output using three different techniques we forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), both implemented at 1/16th degree ( 5 km) for the period 1950-2099. For the VIC model, we used three independently-derived parameter sets. We will show results from the range of simulations, both in the form of basin-wide spatial analyses of hydrologic variables and through analyses of changes in streamflow at selected sites throughout the CRB. We will then discuss the differences in sensitivities to climate change seen among the projections, paying particular attention to differences in projections from the hydrologic models and different parameter sets.

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment.

PubMed

McDonald, Karlie S; Hobday, Alistair J; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Thompson, Peter A

2018-07-01

The effects of anthropogenic global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes have been reported in aquatic systems across the world. Complex synergies between concurrent environmental stressors and the resilience of the system to regime shifts, which vary in space and time, determine the capacity for marine systems to maintain structure and function with global environmental change. Consequently, an interdisciplinary approach that facilitates the development of new methods for the exchange of knowledge between scientists across multiple scales is required to effectively understand, quantify and predict climate impacts on marine ecosystem services. We use a literature review to assess the limitations and assumptions of current pathways to exchange interdisciplinary knowledge and the transferability of research findings across spatial and temporal scales and levels of biological organization to advance scientific understanding of global environmental change in marine systems. We found that species-specific regional scale climate change research is most commonly published, and "supporting" is the ecosystem service most commonly referred to in publications. In addition, our paper outlines a trajectory for the future development of integrated climate change science for sustaining marine ecosystem services such as investment in interdisciplinary education and connectivity between disciplines. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics

PubMed Central

Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

2016-01-01

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling. PMID:27472663

Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.

PubMed

Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

2016-01-01

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5-6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top-the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE PAGES

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2017-11-15

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil.

PubMed

Almagro, André; Oliveira, Paulo Tarso S; Nearing, Mark A; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social and environmental problems. However, few studies have investigated these impacts on continental scales. Here we assessed the influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity across Brazil. We used observed rainfall data and downscaled climate model output based on Hadley Center Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate version 5 (MIROC5), forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate and map rainfall erosivity and its projected changes across Brazil. We estimated mean values of 10,437 mm ha -1  h -1 year -1 for observed data (1980-2013) and 10,089 MJ mm ha -1  h -1 year -1 and 10,585 MJ mm ha -1  h -1 year -1 for HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, respectively (1961-2005). Our analysis suggests that the most affected regions, with projected rainfall erosivity increases ranging up to 109% in the period 2007-2040, are northeastern and southern Brazil. Future decreases of as much as -71% in the 2071-2099 period were estimated for the southeastern, central and northwestern parts of the country. Our results provide an overview of rainfall erosivity in Brazil that may be useful for planning soil and water conservation, and for promoting water and food security.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana

The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the firstmore » set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed sector and region level. A second methodological advancement is a quantification of the co-benefits in terms of the associated atmospheric concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and consequent mortality related outcomes across different models. This is made possible by the use of state-of the art simplified atmospheric model that allows for the first time a computationally feasible multi-model evaluation of such outcomes.« less

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

PubMed

Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region. PMID:26619186

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

White, Kevin S; Gregovich, David P; Levi, Taal

2018-03-01

Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key "early warning signs" about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015-2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., "thermoneutral") summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%-86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.

PubMed

Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-12-15

Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heck, Vera; Donges, Jonathan F.; Lucht, Wolfgang

2016-10-01

The planetary boundaries framework provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate system is approaching critical thresholds of atmospheric carbon, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how the degree of anticipation of the climate problem and the intensity of tCDR efforts with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a collateral transgression of the planetary boundary of land system change. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries only exist for a small range of anticipation levels and depend critically on the underlying emission pathway. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon-safe operating space under low-emission pathways, it is unlikely to succeed in a business-as-usual scenario.

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kihara, Job; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Bationo, Andre; Koala, Saidou; Hickman, Jonathon; Koo, Jawoo; Vanya, Charles; Adiku, Samuel; Beletse, Yacob; Masikate, Patricia;

Estimation of landslides activities evolution due to land-use and climate change in a Pyrenean valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Bernardie, Séverine; Houet, Thomas; Grémont, Marine; Grandjean, Gilles; Thiery, Yannick

2016-04-01

Global changes would have impacts worldwide, but their effects should be even more exacerbated in areas particularly vulnerable. Mountainous areas are among these vulnerable territories. Ecological systems are often at a fragile equilibrium, socio-economical activities are often climate-dependent and climate-driven natural hazards can be a major threat for human activities. In order to estimate the capacity of such mountainous valleys to face global changes (climate, but also climate- and human- induced land-use changes), it is necessary to be able to evaluate the evolution of the different threats. The present work shows a method to evaluate the influences of the evolution of both vegetation cover and climate on landslides activities over a whole valley until 2100, to propose adequate solutions for current and future forestry management. Firstly, the assessment of future land use is addressed through the construction of four prospective socio-economic scenarios up to 2050 and 2100, which are then spatially validated and modeled with LUCC models. Secondly, the climate change inputs of the project correspond to 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impact of land use and climate change is then addressed through the use of these scenarios into hazards computations. For that we use a large-scale slope stability assessment tool ALICE which combines a mechanical stability model (using finite slope analysis), a vegetation module which interfere with the first model, to take into account the effects of vegetation on the mechanical soil properties (cohesion and over-load), and an hydrogeological model. All these elements are interfaced within a GIS-based solution. In that way, future changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of global change on mountain societies. The whole chain is applied to a 100-km² Pyrenean Valley, for the ANR Project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext), as a first step in the chain for risk assessment for different climate and economical development scenarios, to evaluate the resilience of mountainous areas.

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Migration in Vulnerable Deltas: A Research Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutton, C.; Nicholls, R. J.; Allan, A.

2015-12-01

C. Hutton1, & R. J. Nicholls1, , 1 University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, Hampshire, United Kingdom, SO17 1BJ. cwh@geodata. soton.ac.ukAbstractGlobally, deltas contain 500 million people and with rising sea levels often linked to large number of forced migrants are expected in the coming century. However, migration is already a major process in deltas, such as the growth of major cities such as Dhaka and Kolkata. Climate and environmental change interacts with a range of catchment and delta level drivers, which encompass a nexus of sea-level rise, storms, freshwater and sediment supply from the catchment, land degradation, subsidence, agricultural loss and socio-economic stresses. DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation/CARRIA) is investigating migration in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mahanadi and Volta Deltas, including the influence of climate change. The research will explore migration from a range of perspectives including governance and stakeholder analysis, demographic analysis, household surveys of sending and receiving areas, macro-economic analysis, and hazards and hotspot analysis both historically and into the future. Migration under climate change will depend on other adaptation in the deltas and this will be examined. Collectively, integrated analysis will be developed to examine migration, other adaptation and development pathways with a particular focus on the implications for the poorest. This will require the development of input scenarios, including expert-derived exogenous scenarios (e.g., climate change) and endogenous scenarios of the delta developed in a participatory manner. This applied research will facilitate decision support methods for the development of deltas under climate change, with a focus on migration and other adaptation strategies.

Quantifying Hydro-biogeochemical Model Sensitivity in Assessment of Climate Change Effect on Hyporheic Zone Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X.; Chen, X.; Dai, H.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Stegen, J.

2016-12-01

The hyporheic zone is an active region for biogeochemical processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling, where the groundwater and surface water mix and interact with each other with distinct biogeochemical and thermal properties. The biogeochemical dynamics within the hyporheic zone are driven by both river water and groundwater hydraulic dynamics, which are directly affected by climate change scenarios. Besides that, the hydraulic and thermal properties of local sediments and microbial and chemical processes also play important roles in biogeochemical dynamics. Thus for a comprehensive understanding of the biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic zone, a coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model is needed. As multiple uncertainty sources are involved in the integrated model, it is important to identify its key modules/parameters through sensitivity analysis. In this study, we develop a 2D cross-section model in the hyporheic zone at the DOE Hanford site adjacent to Columbia River and use this model to quantify module and parametric sensitivity on assessment of climate change. To achieve this purpose, We 1) develop a facies-based groundwater flow and heat transfer model that incorporates facies geometry and heterogeneity characterized from a field data set, 2) derive multiple reaction networks/pathways from batch experiments with in-situ samples and integrate temperate dependent reactive transport modules to the flow model, 3) assign multiple climate change scenarios to the coupled model by analyzing historical river stage data, 4) apply a variance-based global sensitivity analysis to quantify scenario/module/parameter uncertainty in hierarchy level. The objectives of the research include: 1) identifing the key control factors of the coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model in the assessment of climate change, and 2) quantify the carbon consumption in different climate change scenarios in the hyporheic zone.

How do the methodological choices of your climate change study affect your results? A hydrologic case study across the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.

Analysis of the Exhumation Pathways Experienced in the Cascades Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giles, S. M.; Pesek, M.; Perez, N. D.

2017-12-01

The Cascades volcanic arc is the result of subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath North America. The Cascades trend north to south and create a modern orographic precipitation gradient that focuses precipitation along the western flank of the range. However, the deformation style changes from shortening in the north to extension in the south. This experimental design is an ideal location to test how surface and tectonic processes contribute to rock uplift in orogens. In the Oregon Cascades, zircon U-Pb geochronology, and multiple thermochronologic techniques (apatite U-Pb, zircon U-Th/He) will be applied to an intrusive rock exposed along a west-flowing river to investigate the exhumation pathway. These intrusive rocks are capped by late Miocene basalt flows, constraining the timing of surface exposure. The results of this study will define a time-temperature pathway and be compared with existing exhumation constraints from the Washington Cascades to determine whether the exhumation pathways may correspond to the changing structural regimes or consistent climate patterns along strike.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Jones, Leslie A.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Boyer, Matthew C.; Leary, Robb F.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Luikart, Gordon; Allendorf, Fred W.

2014-07-01

Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways, including invasive hybridization (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions. Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between threatened native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), the world's most widely introduced invasive fish. Despite widespread release of millions of rainbow trout over the past century within the Flathead River system, a large relatively pristine watershed in western North America, historical samples revealed that hybridization was prevalent only in one (source) population. During a subsequent 30-year period of accelerated warming, hybridization spread rapidly and was strongly linked to interactions between climatic drivers--precipitation and temperature--and distance to the source population. Specifically, decreases in spring precipitation and increases in summer stream temperature probably promoted upstream expansion of hybridization throughout the system. This study shows that rapid climate warming can exacerbate interactions between native and non-native species through invasive hybridization, which could spell genomic extinction for many species.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

PubMed

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spatio-temporal Assessment Of The Land Use Implications Of Solar PV And Bioenergy Deployment In The UK TM Energy Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Z.; Konadu, D. D.; Skelton, S.; Lupton, R.

2015-12-01

The UK TIMES model (UKTM) succeeds the UK MARKAL as the underlying model of the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for long term energy system planning and policy development. It generates energy system pathways which achieve the 80% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target by 2050, stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008), at the least possible cost. Some of these pathways prescribe large-scale deployment of solar PV and indigenously sourced bioenergy, which are land intensive and could result in significant land use transitions; but would this create competition and stress for UK land use? To answer the above question, this study uses an integrated spatio-temporal modelling approach, ForeseerTM, which characterises the interdependencies between the energy and land systems by evaluating the land required under each pathways for solar PV and bioenergy, based on scenarios of a range of PV conversion efficiencies, and energy crop yield projections. The outcome is compared with availability of suitable locations for solar PV and sustainable limits of agricultural land appropriation for bioenergy production to assess potential stresses and competition with other land use services. Preliminary results show UKTM pathways could pose significant impact on the UK land use system. Bioenergy deployment could potentially compete with other land services by taking up a significant part of the available UK agricultural land thus competing directly with food production, most notably livestock production. For pathways with significant solar PV deployment, direct competition would not be focussed on the high quality land used for food crop production but rather for land used for livestock production and other ecosystem services.

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skougaard Kaspersen, Per; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik; Drews, Martin

2017-08-01

The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984-2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the stationary approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the evolutionary approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7-12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081-2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical trends in urban development and the projected regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Developing the capacity of the urban drainage system in relation to urban development is found to be an effective adaptation measure as it fully compensates for the increase in run-off caused by additional sealed surfaces. On the other hand, updating the drainage system according to changes in precipitation intensities caused by climate change only marginally reduces flooding for the most extreme events.

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States

PubMed Central

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981–2010) and future (2080–2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making. PMID:26238673

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

PubMed

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-08-04

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.