Methods for estimating population density in data-limited areas: evaluating regression and tree-based models in Peru.

PubMed

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies.

Methods for Estimating Population Density in Data-Limited Areas: Evaluating Regression and Tree-Based Models in Peru

PubMed Central

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies. PMID:24992657

Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Methods Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. Results We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Conclusions Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. PMID:21696598

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

PubMed Central

Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

2014-01-01

Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

Productivity losses in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based survey.

PubMed

Erdal, Marta; Johannessen, Ane; Askildsen, Jan Erik; Eagan, Tomas; Gulsvik, Amund; Grønseth, Rune

2014-01-01

We aimed to estimate incremental productivity losses (sick leave and disability) of spirometry-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a population-based sample and in hospital-recruited patients with COPD. Furthermore, we examined predictors of productivity losses by multivariate analyses. We performed four quarterly telephone interviews of 53 and 107 population-based patients with COPD and controls, as well as 102 hospital-recruited patients with COPD below retirement age. Information was gathered regarding annual productivity loss, exacerbations of respiratory symptoms and comorbidities. Incremental productivity losses were estimated by multivariate quantile median regression according to the human capital approach, adjusting for sex, age, smoking habits, education and lung function. Main effect variables were COPD/control status, number of comorbidities and exacerbations of respiratory symptoms. Altogether 55%, 87% and 31% of population-based COPD cases, controls and hospital patients, respectively, had a paid job at baseline. The annual incremental productivity losses were 5.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 10.1) and 330.6 (95% CI 327.8 to 333.3) days, comparing population-recruited and hospital-recruited patients with COPD to controls, respectively. There were significantly higher productivity losses associated with female sex and less education. Additional adjustments for comorbidities, exacerbations and FEV1% predicted explained all productivity losses in the population-based sample, as well as nearly 40% of the productivity losses in hospital-recruited patients. Annual incremental productivity losses were more than 50 times higher in hospital-recruited patients with COPD than that of population-recruited patients with COPD. To ensure a precise estimation of societal burden, studies on patients with COPD should be population-based.

Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models.

PubMed

Andersson, Therese M L; Dickman, Paul W; Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C

2011-06-22

When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. © 2011 Andersson et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Multi-population Genomic Relationships for Estimating Current Genetic Variances Within and Genetic Correlations Between Populations.

PubMed

Wientjes, Yvonne C J; Bijma, Piter; Vandenplas, Jérémie; Calus, Mario P L

2017-10-01

Different methods are available to calculate multi-population genomic relationship matrices. Since those matrices differ in base population, it is anticipated that the method used to calculate genomic relationships affects the estimate of genetic variances, covariances, and correlations. The aim of this article is to define the multi-population genomic relationship matrix to estimate current genetic variances within and genetic correlations between populations. The genomic relationship matrix containing two populations consists of four blocks, one block for population 1, one block for population 2, and two blocks for relationships between the populations. It is known, based on literature, that by using current allele frequencies to calculate genomic relationships within a population, current genetic variances are estimated. In this article, we theoretically derived the properties of the genomic relationship matrix to estimate genetic correlations between populations and validated it using simulations. When the scaling factor of across-population genomic relationships is equal to the product of the square roots of the scaling factors for within-population genomic relationships, the genetic correlation is estimated unbiasedly even though estimated genetic variances do not necessarily refer to the current population. When this property is not met, the correlation based on estimated variances should be multiplied by a correction factor based on the scaling factors. In this study, we present a genomic relationship matrix which directly estimates current genetic variances as well as genetic correlations between populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Validity and feasibility of a satellite imagery-based method for rapid estimation of displaced populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Estimating the size of forcibly displaced populations is key to documenting their plight and allocating sufficient resources to their assistance, but is often not done, particularly during the acute phase of displacement, due to methodological challenges and inaccessibility. In this study, we explored the potential use of very high resolution satellite imagery to remotely estimate forcibly displaced populations. Methods Our method consisted of multiplying (i) manual counts of assumed residential structures on a satellite image and (ii) estimates of the mean number of people per structure (structure occupancy) obtained from publicly available reports. We computed population estimates for 11 sites in Bangladesh, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya and Mozambique (six refugee camps, three internally displaced persons’ camps and two urban neighbourhoods with a mixture of residents and displaced) ranging in population from 1,969 to 90,547, and compared these to “gold standard” reference population figures from census or other robust methods. Results Structure counts by independent analysts were reasonably consistent. Between one and 11 occupancy reports were available per site and most of these reported people per household rather than per structure. The imagery-based method had a precision relative to reference population figures of <10% in four sites and 10–30% in three sites, but severely over-estimated the population in an Ethiopian camp with implausible occupancy data and two post-earthquake Haiti sites featuring dense and complex residential layout. For each site, estimates were produced in 2–5 working person-days. Conclusions In settings with clearly distinguishable individual structures, the remote, imagery-based method had reasonable accuracy for the purposes of rapid estimation, was simple and quick to implement, and would likely perform better in more current application. However, it may have insurmountable

Validity and feasibility of a satellite imagery-based method for rapid estimation of displaced populations.

PubMed

Checchi, Francesco; Stewart, Barclay T; Palmer, Jennifer J; Grundy, Chris

2013-01-23

Estimating the size of forcibly displaced populations is key to documenting their plight and allocating sufficient resources to their assistance, but is often not done, particularly during the acute phase of displacement, due to methodological challenges and inaccessibility. In this study, we explored the potential use of very high resolution satellite imagery to remotely estimate forcibly displaced populations. Our method consisted of multiplying (i) manual counts of assumed residential structures on a satellite image and (ii) estimates of the mean number of people per structure (structure occupancy) obtained from publicly available reports. We computed population estimates for 11 sites in Bangladesh, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya and Mozambique (six refugee camps, three internally displaced persons' camps and two urban neighbourhoods with a mixture of residents and displaced) ranging in population from 1,969 to 90,547, and compared these to "gold standard" reference population figures from census or other robust methods. Structure counts by independent analysts were reasonably consistent. Between one and 11 occupancy reports were available per site and most of these reported people per household rather than per structure. The imagery-based method had a precision relative to reference population figures of <10% in four sites and 10-30% in three sites, but severely over-estimated the population in an Ethiopian camp with implausible occupancy data and two post-earthquake Haiti sites featuring dense and complex residential layout. For each site, estimates were produced in 2-5 working person-days. In settings with clearly distinguishable individual structures, the remote, imagery-based method had reasonable accuracy for the purposes of rapid estimation, was simple and quick to implement, and would likely perform better in more current application. However, it may have insurmountable limitations in settings featuring connected buildings or

Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Kendall, Katherine C; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Roon, David A; Waits, Lisette P; Paetkau, David

2008-04-01

A fundamental challenge to estimating population size with mark-recapture methods is heterogeneous capture probabilities and subsequent bias of population estimates. Confronting this problem usually requires substantial sampling effort that can be difficult to achieve for some species, such as carnivores. We developed a methodology that uses two data sources to deal with heterogeneity and applied this to DNA mark-recapture data from grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). We improved population estimates by incorporating additional DNA "captures" of grizzly bears obtained by collecting hair from unbaited bear rub trees concurrently with baited, grid-based, hair snag sampling. We consider a Lincoln-Petersen estimator with hair snag captures as the initial session and rub tree captures as the recapture session and develop an estimator in program MARK that treats hair snag and rub tree samples as successive sessions. Using empirical data from a large-scale project in the greater Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, area and simulation modeling we evaluate these methods and compare the results to hair-snag-only estimates. Empirical results indicate that, compared with hair-snag-only data, the joint hair-snag-rub-tree methods produce similar but more precise estimates if capture and recapture rates are reasonably high for both methods. Simulation results suggest that estimators are potentially affected by correlation of capture probabilities between sample types in the presence of heterogeneity. Overall, closed population Huggins-Pledger estimators showed the highest precision and were most robust to sparse data, heterogeneity, and capture probability correlation among sampling types. Results also indicate that these estimators can be used when a segment of the population has zero capture probability for one of the methods. We propose that this general methodology may be useful for other species in which mark-recapture data are available from multiple sources.

Estimating Kinship in Admixed Populations

PubMed Central

Thornton, Timothy; Tang, Hua; Hoffmann, Thomas J.; Ochs-Balcom, Heather M.; Caan, Bette J.; Risch, Neil

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) are commonly used for the mapping of genetic loci that influence complex traits. A problem that is often encountered in both population-based and family-based GWASs is that of identifying cryptic relatedness and population stratification because it is well known that failure to appropriately account for both pedigree and population structure can lead to spurious association. A number of methods have been proposed for identifying relatives in samples from homogeneous populations. A strong assumption of population homogeneity, however, is often untenable, and many GWASs include samples from structured populations. Here, we consider the problem of estimating relatedness in structured populations with admixed ancestry. We propose a method, REAP (relatedness estimation in admixed populations), for robust estimation of identity by descent (IBD)-sharing probabilities and kinship coefficients in admixed populations. REAP appropriately accounts for population structure and ancestry-related assortative mating by using individual-specific allele frequencies at SNPs that are calculated on the basis of ancestry derived from whole-genome analysis. In simulation studies with related individuals and admixture from highly divergent populations, we demonstrate that REAP gives accurate IBD-sharing probabilities and kinship coefficients. We apply REAP to the Mexican Americans in Los Angeles, California (MXL) population sample of release 3 of phase III of the International Haplotype Map Project; in this sample, we identify third- and fourth-degree relatives who have not previously been reported. We also apply REAP to the African American and Hispanic samples from the Women's Health Initiative SNP Health Association Resource (WHI-SHARe) study, in which hundreds of pairs of cryptically related individuals have been identified. PMID:22748210

Estimating population size in wastewater-based epidemiology. Valencia metropolitan area as a case study.

PubMed

Rico, María; Andrés-Costa, María Jesús; Picó, Yolanda

2017-02-05

Wastewater can provide a wealth of epidemiologic data on common drugs consumed and on health and nutritional problems based on the biomarkers excreted into community sewage systems. One of the biggest uncertainties of these studies is the estimation of the number of inhabitants served by the treatment plants. Twelve human urine biomarkers -5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), acesulfame, atenolol, caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, cotinine, creatinine, hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), naproxen, salicylic acid (SA) and hydroxycotinine (OHCOT)- were determined by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to estimate population size. The results reveal that populations calculated from cotinine, 5-HIAA and caffeine are commonly in agreement with those calculated by the hydrochemical parameters. Creatinine is too unstable to be applicable. HCTZ, naproxen, codeine, OHCOT and carbamazepine, under or overestimate the population compared to the hydrochemical population estimates but showed constant results through the weekdays. The consumption of cannabis, cocaine, heroin and bufotenine in Valencia was estimated for a week using different population calculations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types.

PubMed

Dal Maso, L; Guzzinati, S; Buzzoni, C; Capocaccia, R; Serraino, D; Caldarella, A; Dei Tos, A P; Falcini, F; Autelitano, M; Masanotti, G; Ferretti, S; Tisano, F; Tirelli, U; Crocetti, E; De Angelis, R

2014-11-01

Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15-74 years in 1985-2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon-rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

Population entropies estimates of proteins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, Wai Yee

2017-05-01

The Shannon entropy equation provides a way to estimate variability of amino acids sequences in a multiple sequence alignment of proteins. Knowledge of protein variability is useful in many areas such as vaccine design, identification of antibody binding sites, and exploration of protein 3D structural properties. In cases where the population entropies of a protein are of interest but only a small sample size can be obtained, a method based on linear regression and random subsampling can be used to estimate the population entropy. This method is useful for comparisons of entropies where the actual sequence counts differ and thus, correction for alignment size bias is needed. In the current work, an R based package named EntropyCorrect that enables estimation of population entropy is presented and an empirical study on how well this new algorithm performs on simulated dataset of various combinations of population and sample sizes is discussed. The package is available at https://github.com/lloydlow/EntropyCorrect. This article, which was originally published online on 12 May 2017, contained an error in Eq. (1), where the summation sign was missing. The corrected equation appears in the Corrigendum attached to the pdf.

Model-based estimators of density and connectivity to inform conservation of spatially structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morin, Dana J.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Chris

2017-01-01

Conservation and management of spatially structured populations is challenging because solutions must consider where individuals are located, but also differential individual space use as a result of landscape heterogeneity. A recent extension of spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models, the ecological distance model, uses spatial encounter histories of individuals (e.g., a record of where individuals are detected across space, often sequenced over multiple sampling occasions), to estimate the relationship between space use and characteristics of a landscape, allowing simultaneous estimation of both local densities of individuals across space and connectivity at the scale of individual movement. We developed two model-based estimators derived from the SCR ecological distance model to quantify connectivity over a continuous surface: (1) potential connectivity—a metric of the connectivity of areas based on resistance to individual movement; and (2) density-weighted connectivity (DWC)—potential connectivity weighted by estimated density. Estimates of potential connectivity and DWC can provide spatial representations of areas that are most important for the conservation of threatened species, or management of abundant populations (i.e., areas with high density and landscape connectivity), and thus generate predictions that have great potential to inform conservation and management actions. We used a simulation study with a stationary trap design across a range of landscape resistance scenarios to evaluate how well our model estimates resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC. Correlation between true and estimated potential connectivity was high, and there was positive correlation and high spatial accuracy between estimated DWC and true DWC. We applied our approach to data collected from a population of black bears in New York, and found that forested areas represented low levels of resistance for black bears. We demonstrate that formal inference about measures

Isavuconazole Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis Using Nonparametric Estimation in Patients with Invasive Fungal Disease (Results from the VITAL Study)

PubMed Central

Kovanda, Laura L.; Desai, Amit V.; Lu, Qiaoyang; Townsend, Robert W.; Akhtar, Shahzad; Bonate, Peter

2016-01-01

Isavuconazonium sulfate (Cresemba; Astellas Pharma Inc.), a water-soluble prodrug of the triazole antifungal agent isavuconazole, is available for the treatment of invasive aspergillosis (IA) and invasive mucormycosis. A population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model was constructed using nonparametric estimation to compare the pharmacokinetic (PK) behaviors of isavuconazole in patients treated in the phase 3 VITAL open-label clinical trial, which evaluated the efficacy and safety of the drug for treatment of renally impaired IA patients and patients with invasive fungal disease (IFD) caused by emerging molds, yeasts, and dimorphic fungi. Covariates examined were body mass index (BMI), weight, race, impact of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on clearance (CL), and impact of weight on volume. PK parameters were compared based on IFD type and other patient characteristics. Simulations were performed to describe the MICs covered by the clinical dosing regimen. Concentrations (n = 458) from 136 patients were used to construct a 2-compartment model (first-order absorption compartment and central compartment). Weight-related covariates affected clearance, but eGFR did not. PK parameters and intersubject variability of CL were similar across different IFD groups and populations. Target attainment analyses demonstrated that the clinical dosing regimen would be sufficient for total drug area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)/MIC targets ranging from 50.5 for Aspergillus spp. (up to the CLSI MIC of 0.5 mg/liter) to 270 and 5,053 for Candida albicans (up to MICs of 0.125 and 0.004 mg/liter, respectively) and 312 for non-albicans Candida spp. (up to a MIC of 0.125 mg/liter). The estimations for Candida spp. were exploratory considering that no patients with Candida infections were included in the current analyses. (The VITAL trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under number NCT00634049.) PMID:27185799

Estimates and predictors of health care costs of esophageal adenocarcinoma: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Thein, Hla-Hla; Jembere, Nathaniel; Thavorn, Kednapa; Chan, Kelvin K W; Coyte, Peter C; de Oliveira, Claire; Hur, Chin; Earle, Craig C

2018-06-27

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is increasing rapidly. Esophageal cancer has the second lowest 5-year survival rate of people diagnosed with cancer in Canada. Given the poor survival and the potential for further increases in incidence, phase-specific cost estimates constitute an important input for economic evaluation of prevention, screening, and treatment interventions. The study aims to estimate phase-specific net direct medical costs of care attributable to EAC, costs stratified by cancer stage and treatment, and predictors of total net costs of care for EAC. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative health data from 2003 to 2011. The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days (2016 CAD) were estimated from the payer perspective using phase of care approach and generalized estimating equations. Predictors of net cost by phase of care were based on a generalized estimating equations model with a logarithmic link and gamma distribution adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days were $1016 (95% CI, $955-$1078) in the initial phase, $669 (95% CI, $594-$743) in the continuing care phase, and $8678 (95% CI, $8217-$9139) in the terminal phase. Overall, stage IV at diagnosis and surgery plus radiotherapy for EAC incurred the highest cost, particularly in the terminal phase. Strong predictors of higher net costs were receipt of chemotherapy plus radiotherapy, surgery plus chemotherapy, radiotherapy alone, surgery alone, and chemotherapy alone in the initial and continuing care phases, stage III-IV disease and patients diagnosed with EAC later in a calendar year (2007-2011) in the initial and terminal phases, comorbidity in the continuing care phase, and older age at diagnosis (70-74 years), and geographic region in the terminal phase. Costs of care vary by phase of care, stage at diagnosis, and type of treatment for EAC

Estimating Leptospirosis Incidence Using Hospital-Based Surveillance and a Population-Based Health Care Utilization Survey in Tanzania

PubMed Central

Biggs, Holly M.; Hertz, Julian T.; Munishi, O. Michael; Galloway, Renee L.; Marks, Florian; Saganda, Wilbrod; Maro, Venance P.; Crump, John A.

2013-01-01

Background The incidence of leptospirosis, a neglected zoonotic disease, is uncertain in Tanzania and much of sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in scarce data on which to prioritize resources for public health interventions and disease control. In this study, we estimate the incidence of leptospirosis in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a population-based household health care utilization survey in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania and identified leptospirosis cases at two hospital-based fever sentinel surveillance sites in the Kilimanjaro Region. We used multipliers derived from the health care utilization survey and case numbers from hospital-based surveillance to calculate the incidence of leptospirosis. A total of 810 households were enrolled in the health care utilization survey and multipliers were derived based on responses to questions about health care seeking in the event of febrile illness. Of patients enrolled in fever surveillance over a 1 year period and residing in the 2 districts, 42 (7.14%) of 588 met the case definition for confirmed or probable leptospirosis. After applying multipliers to account for hospital selection, test sensitivity, and study enrollment, we estimated the overall incidence of leptospirosis ranges from 75–102 cases per 100,000 persons annually. Conclusions/Significance We calculated a high incidence of leptospirosis in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, where leptospirosis incidence was previously unknown. Multiplier methods, such as used in this study, may be a feasible method of improving availability of incidence estimates for neglected diseases, such as leptospirosis, in resource constrained settings. PMID:24340122

Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, D.R.

2009-01-01

Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N < 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (≥8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ≥ 0.5 if N ≤ 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ≥ 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates.

Ancestry estimation and control of population stratification for sequence-based association studies.

PubMed

Wang, Chaolong; Zhan, Xiaowei; Bragg-Gresham, Jennifer; Kang, Hyun Min; Stambolian, Dwight; Chew, Emily Y; Branham, Kari E; Heckenlively, John; Fulton, Robert; Wilson, Richard K; Mardis, Elaine R; Lin, Xihong; Swaroop, Anand; Zöllner, Sebastian; Abecasis, Gonçalo R

2014-04-01

Estimating individual ancestry is important in genetic association studies where population structure leads to false positive signals, although assigning ancestry remains challenging with targeted sequence data. We propose a new method for the accurate estimation of individual genetic ancestry, based on direct analysis of off-target sequence reads, and implement our method in the publicly available LASER software. We validate the method using simulated and empirical data and show that the method can accurately infer worldwide continental ancestry when used with sequencing data sets with whole-genome shotgun coverage as low as 0.001×. For estimates of fine-scale ancestry within Europe, the method performs well with coverage of 0.1×. On an even finer scale, the method improves discrimination between exome-sequenced study participants originating from different provinces within Finland. Finally, we show that our method can be used to improve case-control matching in genetic association studies and to reduce the risk of spurious findings due to population structure.

Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.; Thissen, David

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the…

Population based estimates of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Fatal injuries are at the top of the injury pyramid; however, non-fatal injuries are quite common and impose huge medical expenses on the population. Relying on hospital data will underestimate the incidence of non-fatal injuries. The aim of this study was to estimate the annual incidence and out of pocket medical expenses of all injuries in urban population of Tehran (the capital city of Iran). Methods Using the cluster random sampling approach, a household survey of residents of greater Tehran was performed on April 2008. At randomly selected residential locations, interviewers asked one adult person to report all injuries which have occurred during the past year for all household members, as well as the type of injury, place of occurrence, the activity, cause of accidents resulting in injuries, the amount of out of pocket medical expenses for injury, and whether they referred to hospital. Results This study included 2,450 households residing in Tehran during 2007-8. The annual incidence of all injuries was 188.7 (180.7-196.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 68.8 (63.7-74.2), fractures was 19.3 (16.6 - 22.4), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 16.7 (14.2 - 19.6) per 1000 population. The annual incidence of fatal injuries was 33 (7-96) per 100,000 Population. In children aged 15 or less, the annual incidence of all injuries was 137.2 (120.0 - 155.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 64.2 (52.2 - 78.0), fractures was 21.8 (15.0 - 30.7), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 6.8 (3.3 - 12.5) per 1000 population. The mean out of pocket medical expense for injuries was 19.9 USD. Conclusion This population based study showed that the real incidence of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran is more than the formal hospital-based estimates. These injuries impose non trivial medical and indirect cost on the community. The out of pocket medical expense of non-fatal injuries to Tehran population is estimated

Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

The Population Benefit of Radiotherapy for Malignant Brain Tumors: Local Control and Survival Estimates for Guideline-Based Use.

PubMed

Hanna, Timothy Paul; Delaney, Geoffrey Paul; Barton, Michael Bernard

2016-09-01

To estimate the population benefit of radiotherapy (RT) for primary malignant brain tumors if evidence-based guidelines were routinely followed. This study investigated 5-year local control (LC) and 2- and 5-year overall survival (OS) benefits. RT benefit was the absolute proportional benefit of RT alone over no RT for radical indications, and over surgery alone for adjuvant indications. Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) benefit was the absolute incremental benefit of concurrent chemotherapy and RT over RT alone. Decision tree models were adapted to define the incidence of each indication. Citation databases were systematically queried for the highest level of evidence defining indication benefits. Meta-analysis was performed if there were multiple sources of the same evidence level, and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was also performed. Among all patients with malignant brain tumors, 82% had indications for curative- or adjuvant-intent RT. The magnitude of benefit was based on level I or II evidence in 44% of all patients. A total of 25 relevant studies were used to quantify indication benefits. All RT benefit included in the model was irreplaceable. For malignant brain tumors, the estimated population benefit for RT alone was 9% for 5-year LC (95% CI, 7%-10%), 9% for 2-year OS (95% CI, 8%-11%), and 5% for 5-year OS (95% CI, 4%-5%). The incremental benefit of CRT was 1% for 5-year LC (95% CI, 0%-2%), 7% for 2-year OS (95% CI, 4%-11%), and 3% for 5-year OS (95% CI, 1%-5%). The model was robust in sensitivity analysis. When optimally used, RT provides an important benefit for many patients with malignant brain tumors. The model provided a robust means for estimating the magnitude of this benefit. Copyright © 2016 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiaoxin; Sun, Baiqing; Jin, Zhanyong

2016-12-01

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

Long-term survival and conditional survival of cancer patients in Japan using population-based cancer registry data

PubMed Central

Ito, Yuri; Miyashiro, Isao; Ito, Hidemi; Hosono, Satoyo; Chihara, Dai; Nakata-Yamada, Kayo; Nakayama, Masashi; Matsuzaka, Masashi; Hattori, Masakazu; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Oze, Isao; Tanaka, Rina; Nomura, Etsuko; Nishino, Yoshikazu; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Ioka, Akiko; Tsukuma, Hideaki; Nakayama, Tomio

2014-01-01

Although we usually report 5-year cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data, nowadays many cancer patients survive longer and need to be followed-up for more than 5 years. Long-term cancer survival figures are scarce in Japan. Here we report 10-year cancer survival and conditional survival using an established statistical approach. We received data on 1 387 489 cancer cases from six prefectural population-based cancer registries in Japan, diagnosed between 1993 and 2009 and followed-up for at least 5 years. We estimated the 10-year relative survival of patients who were followed-up between 2002 and 2006 using period analysis. Using this 10-year survival, we also calculated the conditional 5-year survival for cancer survivors who lived for some years after diagnosis. We reported 10-year survival and conditional survival of 23 types of cancer for 15–99-year-old patients and four types of cancer for children (0–14 years old) and adolescent and young adults (15–29 years old) patients by sex. Variation in 10-year cancer survival by site was wide, from 5% for pancreatic cancer to 95% for female thyroid cancer. Approximately 70–80% of children and adolescent and young adult cancer patients survived for more than 10 years. Conditional 5-year survival for most cancer sites increased according to years, whereas those for liver cancer and multiple myeloma did not increase. We reported 10-year cancer survival and conditional survival using population-based cancer registries in Japan. It is important for patients and clinicians to report these relevant figures using population-based data. PMID:25183551

Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

2013-04-01

Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

Pregnancy outcomes in liver transplant patients, a population-based study.

PubMed

Ghazali, Sarah; Czuzoj-Shulman, Nicholas; Spence, Andrea R; Mishkin, Daniel S; Abenhaim, Haim A

2017-02-01

To determine the incidence of pregnancy in liver transplant (LT) patients in a large population-based cohort and to determine the maternal and fetal risks associated with these pregnancies. We conducted an age-matched cohort study using the US Healthcare and Utilization project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2003-2011. We used unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for baseline characteristics, to estimate the likelihood of common obstetric complications in the LT group compared with age-matched nontransplant patients. There were 7 288 712 deliveries and an estimated incidence of 2.1 LTs/100 000 deliveries over the nine-year study period. LT patients had higher rates of maternal complications including hypertensive disorders (OR 6.5, 95% CI: 4.4-9.5), gestational diabetes (OR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0-3.5), anemia (OR 3.2, 95% CI: 2.1-4.9), thrombocytopenia (OR 27.5, 95% CI: 12.7-59.8) and genitourinary tract infections (OR 4.2, 95% CI: 1.8-9.8). Deliveries among women with LT had higher risks of cesarean section (OR 2.9, 95% CI: 2.0-4.1), postpartum hemorrhage (OR 3.2, 95% CI: 1.7-6.2) and blood transfusion (OR 18.7, 95% CI: 8.5-41.0). Fetal complications in LT patients included preterm delivery (OR 4.7, 95% CI: 3.2-7.0), intrauterine growth restriction (OR 4.1, 95% CI: 2.1-7.7) and congenital anomalies (OR 6.0, 95% CI: 1.1-32.0). Although pregnancies in LT recipients are feasible, they are associated with a high rate of maternal and fetal morbidities. Close antenatal surveillance is recommended.

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

PubMed

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Improved population estimates through the use of auxiliary information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.; Ralph, C.J.; Scott, J.M.

1981-01-01

When estimating the size of a population of birds, the investigator may have, in addition to an estimator based on a statistical sample, information on one of several auxiliary variables, such as: (1) estimates of the population made on previous occasions, (2) measures of habitat variables associated with the size of the population, and (3) estimates of the population sizes of other species that correlate with the species of interest. Although many studies have described the relationships between each of these kinds of data and the population size to be estimated, very little work has been done to improve the estimator by incorporating such auxiliary information. A statistical methodology termed 'empirical Bayes' seems to be appropriate to these situations. The potential that empirical Bayes methodology has for improved estimation of the population size of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is explored. In the example considered, three empirical Bayes estimators were found to reduce the error by one-fourth to one-half of that of the usual estimator.

Worldwide F(ST) estimates relative to five continental-scale populations.

PubMed

Steele, Christopher D; Court, Denise Syndercombe; Balding, David J

2014-11-01

We estimate the population genetics parameter FST (also referred to as the fixation index) from short tandem repeat (STR) allele frequencies, comparing many worldwide human subpopulations at approximately the national level with continental-scale populations. FST is commonly used to measure population differentiation, and is important in forensic DNA analysis to account for remote shared ancestry between a suspect and an alternative source of the DNA. We estimate FST comparing subpopulations with a hypothetical ancestral population, which is the approach most widely used in population genetics, and also compare a subpopulation with a sampled reference population, which is more appropriate for forensic applications. Both estimation methods are likelihood-based, in which FST is related to the variance of the multinomial-Dirichlet distribution for allele counts. Overall, we find low FST values, with posterior 97.5 percentiles < 3% when comparing a subpopulation with the most appropriate population, and even for inter-population comparisons we find FST < 5%. These are much smaller than single nucleotide polymorphism-based inter-continental FST estimates, and are also about half the magnitude of STR-based estimates from population genetics surveys that focus on distinct ethnic groups rather than a general population. Our findings support the use of FST up to 3% in forensic calculations, which corresponds to some current practice.

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Using Monte Carlo/Gaussian Based Small Area Estimates to Predict Where Medicaid Patients Reside.

PubMed

Behrens, Jess J; Wen, Xuejin; Goel, Satyender; Zhou, Jing; Fu, Lina; Kho, Abel N

2016-01-01

Electronic Health Records (EHR) are rapidly becoming accepted as tools for planning and population health 1,2 . With the national dialogue around Medicaid expansion 12 , the role of EHR data has become even more important. For their potential to be fully realized and contribute to these discussions, techniques for creating accurate small area estimates is vital. As such, we examined the efficacy of developing small area estimates for Medicaid patients in two locations, Albuquerque and Chicago, by using a Monte Carlo/Gaussian technique that has worked in accurately locating registered voters in North Carolina 11 . The Albuquerque data, which includes patient address, will first be used to assess the accuracy of the methodology. Subsequently, it will be combined with the EHR data from Chicago to develop a regression that predicts Medicaid patients by US Block Group. We seek to create a tool that is effective in translating EHR data's potential for population health studies.

Development of a population pharmacokinetic model for carbamazepine based on sparse therapeutic monitoring data from pediatric patients with epilepsy.

PubMed

Carlsson, Kristin Cecilie; Hoem, Nils Ove; Glauser, Tracy; Vinks, Alexander A

2005-05-01

Population models can be important extensions of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as they allow estimation of individual pharmacokinetic parameters based on a small number of measured drug concentrations. This study used a Bayesian approach to explore the utility of routinely collected and sparse TDM data (1 sample per patient) for carbamazepine (CBZ) monotherapy in developing a population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model for CBZ in pediatric patients that would allow prediction of CBZ concentrations for both immediate- and controlled-release formulations. Patient and TDM data were obtained from a pediatric neurology outpatient database. Data were analyzed using an iterative 2-stage Bayesian algorithm and a nonparametric adaptive grid algorithm. Models were compared by final log likelihood, mean error (ME) as a measure of bias, and root mean squared error (RMSE) as a measure of precision. Fifty-seven entries with data on CBZ monotherapy were identified from the database and used in the analysis (36 from males, 21 from females; mean [SD] age, 9.1 [4.4] years [range, 2-21 years]). Preliminary models estimating clearance (Cl) or the elimination rate constant (K(el)) gave good prediction of serum concentrations compared with measured serum concentrations, but estimates of Cl and K(el) were highly correlated with estimates of volume of distribution (V(d)). Different covariate models were then tested. The selected model had zero-order input and had age and body weight as covariates. Cl (L/h) was calculated as K(el) . V(d), where K(el) = [K(i) - (K(s) . age)] and V(d) = [V(i) + (V(s) . body weight)]. Median parameter estimates were V(i) (intercept) = 11.5 L (fixed); V(s) (slope) = 0.3957 L/kg (range, 0.01200-1.5730); K(i) (intercept) = 0.173 h(-1) (fixed); and K(s) (slope) = 0.004487 h(-1) . y(-1) (range, 0.0001800-0.02969). The fit was good for estimates of steady-state serum concentrations based on prior values (population median estimates) (R = 0.468; R(2) = 0.219) but

The role of chemoprevention by selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors in colorectal cancer patients - a population-based study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background There are limited population-based studies focusing on the chemopreventive effects of selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors against colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study is to assess the trends and dose–response effects of various medication possession ratios (MPR) of selective COX-2 inhibitor used for chemoprevention of colorectal cancer. Methods A population-based case–control study was conducted using the Taiwan Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study comprised 21,460 colorectal cancer patients and 79,331 controls. The conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for COX-2 inhibitors used for several durations (5 years, 3 years, 1 year, 6 months and 3 months) prior to the index date. Results In patients receiving selective COX-2 inhibitors, the OR was 0.51 (95% CI=0.29~0.90, p=0.021) for an estimated 5-year period in developing colorectal cancer. ORs showing significant protection effects were found in 10% of MPRs for 5-year, 3-year, and 1-year usage. Risk reduction against colorectal cancer by selective COX-2 inhibitors was observed as early as 6 months after usage. Conclusion Our results indicate that selective COX-2 inhibitors may reduce the development of colorectal cancer by at least 10% based on the MPRs evaluated. Given the limited number of clinical reports from general populations, our results add to the knowledge of chemopreventive effects of selective COX-2 inhibitors against cancer in individuals at no increased risk of colorectal cancer. PMID:23217168

Pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT: organ dose estimation based on 42 patient models.

PubMed

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W Paul; Paulson, Erik K; Frush, Donald P; Samei, Ehsan

2014-02-01

To estimate organ dose from pediatric chest and abdominopelvic computed tomography (CT) examinations and evaluate the dependency of organ dose coefficients on patient size and CT scanner models. The institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant study and did not require informed patient consent. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to perform simulations in 42 pediatric patient models (age range, 0-16 years; weight range, 2-80 kg; 24 boys, 18 girls). Multidetector CT scanners were modeled on those from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, Wis; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). Organ doses were estimated for each patient model for routine chest and abdominopelvic examinations and were normalized by volume CT dose index (CTDI(vol)). The relationships between CTDI(vol)-normalized organ dose coefficients and average patient diameters were evaluated across scanner models. For organs within the image coverage, CTDI(vol)-normalized organ dose coefficients largely showed a strong exponential relationship with the average patient diameter (R(2) > 0.9). The average percentage differences between the two scanner models were generally within 10%. For distributed organs and organs on the periphery of or outside the image coverage, the differences were generally larger (average, 3%-32%) mainly because of the effect of overranging. It is feasible to estimate patient-specific organ dose for a given examination with the knowledge of patient size and the CTDI(vol). These CTDI(vol)-normalized organ dose coefficients enable one to readily estimate patient-specific organ dose for pediatric patients in clinical settings. This dose information, and, as appropriate, attendant risk estimations, can provide more substantive information for the individual patient for both clinical and research applications and can yield more expansive information on dose profiles across patient populations within a practice. �

Pediatric Chest and Abdominopelvic CT: Organ Dose Estimation Based on 42 Patient Models

PubMed Central

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Paulson, Erik K.; Frush, Donald P.

2014-01-01

Purpose To estimate organ dose from pediatric chest and abdominopelvic computed tomography (CT) examinations and evaluate the dependency of organ dose coefficients on patient size and CT scanner models. Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved this HIPAA–compliant study and did not require informed patient consent. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to perform simulations in 42 pediatric patient models (age range, 0–16 years; weight range, 2–80 kg; 24 boys, 18 girls). Multidetector CT scanners were modeled on those from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, Wis; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). Organ doses were estimated for each patient model for routine chest and abdominopelvic examinations and were normalized by volume CT dose index (CTDIvol). The relationships between CTDIvol-normalized organ dose coefficients and average patient diameters were evaluated across scanner models. Results For organs within the image coverage, CTDIvol-normalized organ dose coefficients largely showed a strong exponential relationship with the average patient diameter (R2 > 0.9). The average percentage differences between the two scanner models were generally within 10%. For distributed organs and organs on the periphery of or outside the image coverage, the differences were generally larger (average, 3%–32%) mainly because of the effect of overranging. Conclusion It is feasible to estimate patient-specific organ dose for a given examination with the knowledge of patient size and the CTDIvol. These CTDIvol-normalized organ dose coefficients enable one to readily estimate patient-specific organ dose for pediatric patients in clinical settings. This dose information, and, as appropriate, attendant risk estimations, can provide more substantive information for the individual patient for both clinical and research applications and can yield more expansive information on dose profiles

Estimating fat mass in heart failure patients.

PubMed

Trippel, Tobias Daniel; Lenk, Julian; Gunga, Hanns-Christian; Doehner, Wolfram; von Haehling, Stephan; Loncar, Goran; Edelmann, Frank; Pieske, Burkert; Stahn, Alexander; Duengen, Hans-Dirk

2016-01-01

Body composition (BC) assessments in heart failure (HF) patients are mainly based on body weight, body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio. The present study compares BC assessments by basic anthropometry, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS), and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for the estimation of fat (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) in a HF population. In this single-centre, observational pilot study we enrolled 52 patients with HF (33 HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), 19 HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF); mean age was 67.7 ±9.9 years, 41 male) and 20 healthy controls. DXA was used as a reference standard for the measurement of FM and FFM. In the HF population, linear regression for DXA-FM and waist-to-hip ratio ( r = -0.05, 95% CI: (-0.32)-0.23), body mass index ( r = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23-0.669), and body density ( r = -0.87, 95% CI: (-0.93)-(-0.87)) was obtained. In HF, Lin's concordance correlation coefficient of DXA-FM (%) with ADP-FM (%) was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.85) and DXA-FFM [kg] with DXA-ADP [kg] was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96). DXA-FM (%) for BIS-FM (%) was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.54-0.80) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.60-0.82) for DXA-FFM [kg] and BIS-FFM [kg]. Body density is a useful surrogate for FM. ADP was found suitable for estimating FM (%) and FFM [kg] in HF patients. BIS showed acceptable results for the estimation of FM (%) in HFrEF and for FFM [kg] in HFpEF patients. We encourage selecting a suitable method for BC assessment according to the compartment of interest in the HF population.

The direct health care costs of eating disorders among hospitalized patients: A population-based study.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Claire; Colton, Patricia; Cheng, Joyce; Olmsted, Marion; Kurdyak, Paul

2017-12-01

To estimate the direct health care costs of eating disorders in Ontario, Canada, in 2012, using a prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach. We selected a population-based sample of all patients eligible for public health care insurance over the age of 4 with a hospitalization for an eating disorder at any point since 1988. We estimated total and mean direct net costs per patient in 2012, from the third public payer perspective, by sex, age group, and health service type. In 2012, there were 6,326 patients ever hospitalized for an eating disorder. They had a mean age of 31 at hospitalization, were mostly female (93%), and generally from high-income, urban neighborhoods. Direct total costs were just under $63 million CAD; direct net costs were roughly $48 million CAD. Mean net costs per patient were higher for females than males ($7,743.40 and $6,340.50, respectively), and higher for patients under 20 and patients 65+ ($17,961.50 and $14,953.90, respectively). The main cost drivers were psychiatric hospitalizations and physician visits, although this varied by age group. For younger patients, net costs were mainly because of psychiatric hospitalizations, while for older patients net costs were mainly because of psychiatric and nonpsychiatric hospitalizations, and other care. The cost of eating disorders is substantial and varies by sex and age group. Our findings suggest that, from a health care utilization/cost perspective, the effect of eating disorders is likely to persist over the lifespan. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk and Prognosis of Bacteremia and Fungemia Among Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Dalgaard, Lars Skov; Nørgaard, Mette; Povlsen, Johan Vestergaard; Jespersen, Bente; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Ellermann-Eriksen, Svend; Østergaard, Lars; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Søgaard, Ole Schmeltz

♦ BACKGROUND: The incidence of bacteremia and fungemia (BAF) is largely unknown in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients initiating peritoneal dialysis (PD). ♦ OBJECTIVE: The main objective was to estimate and compare incidence rates of first episodes of BAF in incident PD patients and a comparison cohort. A secondary objective was to compare causative agents and 30-day post-BAF mortality between PD patients and the comparison cohort. ♦ METHODS: Design: Observational cohort study. Central and North Denmark regions. patients who initiated PD during 1995 - 2010. For each patient we sampled up to 10 controls from the general population matched on age, sex, and municipality. ♦ MAIN OUTCOME: Data on positive blood cultures were retrieved from electronic microbiology databases covering the 2 regions. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) of first-time BAF for PD patients and population controls. Incidence-rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated to compare these rates. Thirty-day mortality was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. ♦ RESULTS: Among 1,024 PD patients and 10,215 population controls, we identified 75 and 282 episodes of BAF, respectively. Incidence rates of BAF were 4.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.8 - 5.9) per 100 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) in PD patients and 0.5 (95% CI, 0.4 - 0.5) per 100 PYFU in population controls (IRR = 10.4; 95% CI, 8.1 - 13.5). In PD patients, the most frequent microorganisms were Escherichia coli (18.7%) and Staphylococcus aureus (13.3%). Escherichia coli (27.3%) also ranked first among population controls. Thirty-day mortality following BAF was 20.8% (95% CI, 12.6 - 31.0) and 20.7% (95% CI, 16.3 - 25.9) among PD patients and population controls, respectively. ♦ CONCLUSIONS: Peritoneal dialysis patients are at markedly higher risk of BAF than population controls. Causative agents and the 30-day post-BAF mortality were similar in the 2 cohorts. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis.

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographicallymore » scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.« less

Use of Pathogen-Specific Antibody Biomarkers to Estimate Waterborne Infections in Population-Based Settings.

PubMed

Exum, Natalie G; Pisanic, Nora; Granger, Douglas A; Schwab, Kellogg J; Detrick, Barbara; Kosek, Margaret; Egorov, Andrey I; Griffin, Shannon M; Heaney, Christopher D

2016-09-01

This review discusses the utility of pathogen-specific antibody biomarkers for improving estimates of the population burden of waterborne infections, assessing the fraction of infections that can be prevented by specific water treatments, and understanding transmission routes and the natural history and ecology of disease in different populations (including asymptomatic infection rates). We review recent literature on the application of pathogen-specific antibody response data to estimate incidence and prevalence of acute infections and their utility to assess the contributions of waterborne transmission pathways. Advantages and technical challenges associated with the use of serum versus minimally invasive salivary antibody biomarkers in cross-sectional and prospective surveys are discussed. We highlight recent advances and challenges and outline future directions for research, development, and application of antibody-based and other immunological biomarkers of waterborne infections.

Cross-cultural estimation of the human generation interval for use in genetics-based population divergence studies.

PubMed

Fenner, Jack N

2005-10-01

The length of the human generation interval is a key parameter when using genetics to date population divergence events. However, no consensus exists regarding the generation interval length, and a wide variety of interval lengths have been used in recent studies. This makes comparison between studies difficult, and questions the accuracy of divergence date estimations. Recent genealogy-based research suggests that the male generation interval is substantially longer than the female interval, and that both are greater than the values commonly used in genetics studies. This study evaluates each of these hypotheses in a broader cross-cultural context, using data from both nation states and recent hunter-gatherer societies. Both hypotheses are supported by this study; therefore, revised estimates of male, female, and overall human generation interval lengths are proposed. The nearly universal, cross-cultural nature of the evidence justifies using these proposed estimates in Y-chromosomal, mitochondrial, and autosomal DNA-based population divergence studies.

G6PD deficiency prevalence and estimates of affected populations in malaria endemic countries: a geostatistical model-based map.

PubMed

Howes, Rosalind E; Piel, Frédéric B; Patil, Anand P; Nyangiri, Oscar A; Gething, Peter W; Dewi, Mewahyu; Hogg, Mariana M; Battle, Katherine E; Padilla, Carmencita D; Baird, J Kevin; Hay, Simon I

2012-01-01

Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk. Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4-8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4-6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of relative G6PDd haemolytic risk. Asian

Estimating population diversity with CatchAll

PubMed Central

Bunge, John; Woodard, Linda; Böhning, Dankmar; Foster, James A.; Connolly, Sean; Allen, Heather K.

2012-01-01

Motivation: The massive data produced by next-generation sequencing require advanced statistical tools. We address estimating the total diversity or species richness in a population. To date, only relatively simple methods have been implemented in available software. There is a need for software employing modern, computationally intensive statistical analyses including error, goodness-of-fit and robustness assessments. Results: We present CatchAll, a fast, easy-to-use, platform-independent program that computes maximum likelihood estimates for finite-mixture models, weighted linear regression-based analyses and coverage-based non-parametric methods, along with outlier diagnostics. Given sample ‘frequency count’ data, CatchAll computes 12 different diversity estimates and applies a model-selection algorithm. CatchAll also derives discounted diversity estimates to adjust for possibly uncertain low-frequency counts. It is accompanied by an Excel-based graphics program. Availability: Free executable downloads for Linux, Windows and Mac OS, with manual and source code, at www.northeastern.edu/catchall. Contact: jab18@cornell.edu PMID:22333246

Incidence of breast cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis after the initiation of a population-based mammography screening program.

PubMed

Coldman, Andrew; Phillips, Norm

2013-07-09

There has been growing interest in the overdiagnosis of breast cancer as a result of mammography screening. We report incidence rates in British Columbia before and after the initiation of population screening and provide estimates of overdiagnosis. We obtained the numbers of breast cancer diagnoses from the BC Cancer Registry and screening histories from the Screening Mammography Program of BC for women aged 30-89 years between 1970 and 2009. We calculated age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ. We compared these rates by age, calendar period and screening participation. We obtained 2 estimates of overdiagnosis from cumulative cancer rates among women between the ages of 40 and 89 years: the first estimate compared participants with nonparticipants; the second estimate compared observed and predicted population rates. We calculated participation-based estimates of overdiagnosis to be 5.4% for invasive disease alone and 17.3% when ductal carcinoma in situ was included. The corresponding population-based estimates were -0.7% and 6.7%. Participants had higher rates of invasive cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ than nonparticipants but lower rates after screening stopped. Population incidence rates for invasive cancer increased after 1980; by 2009, they had returned to levels similar to those of the 1970s among women under 60 years of age but remained elevated among women 60-79 years old. Rates of ductal carcinoma in situ increased in all age groups. The extent of overdiagnosis of invasive cancer in our study population was modest and primarily occurred among women over the age of 60 years. However, overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ was elevated for all age groups. The estimation of overdiagnosis from observational data is complex and subject to many influences. The use of mammography screening in older women has an increased risk of overdiagnosis, which should be considered in screening decisions.

Nationwide population-based study of cause-specific death rates in patients with psoriasis.

PubMed

Salahadeen, E; Torp-Pedersen, C; Gislason, G; Hansen, P R; Ahlehoff, O

2015-05-01

Psoriasis is a common chronic disease, mediated by type 1 and 17 helper T cell-driven inflammation. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a wide range of comorbidities and increased mortality rates. However, the current evidence on psoriasis-related mortality is limited and nationwide data have not been presented previously. In a nationwide population-based cohort we evaluated all-cause and cause-specific death rates in patients with psoriasis as compared to the general population. The entire Danish population aged 18 and above, corresponding to a total of 5,458,627 individuals (50.7% female, 40.9 years ± 19.7), including 94,069 with mild psoriasis (53% female, 42.0 ± 17.0 years) and 28,253 with severe psoriasis (53.4% female, 43.0 ± 16.5 years), was included. A total of 884,661 deaths were recorded, including 10 916 in patients with mild psoriasis and 3699 in patients with severe psoriasis. The age at time of death varied by psoriasis status, i.e. 76.5 ± 14.0, 74.4 ± 12.8 and 72.0 ± 13.4 years, for the general population, mild psoriasis and severe psoriasis respectively. In general, the highest death rates were observed in patients with severe psoriasis. Overall death rates per 1000 patient years were 13.8 [confidence interval (CI) 13.8-13.8], 17.0 (CI 16.7-17.3) and 25.4 (CI 24.6-26.3) for the general population, patients with mild psoriasis and patients with severe psoriasis respectively. This nationwide population-based study of cause-specific death rates in patients with psoriasis demonstrated reduced lifespan and increased rates of all examined specific causes of death in patients with psoriasis compared to the general population. © 2014 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Use of Pathogen-Specific Antibody Biomarkers to Estimate Waterborne Infections in Population-Based Settings

PubMed Central

Exum, Natalie G.; Pisanic, Nora; Granger, Douglas A.; Schwab, Kellogg J.; Detrick, Barbara; Kosek, Margaret; Egorov, Andrey I.; Griffin, Shannon M.; Heaney, Christopher D.

2016-01-01

Purpose of review This review discusses the utility of pathogen-specific antibody biomarkers for improving estimates of the population burden of waterborne infections, assessing the fraction of infections that can be prevented by specific water treatments, and understanding transmission routes and the natural history and ecology of disease in different populations (including asymptomatic infection rates). Recent findings We review recent literature on the application of pathogen-specific antibody response data to estimate incidence and prevalence of acute infections and their utility to assess the contributions of waterborne transmission pathways. Advantages and technical challenges associated with the use of serum versus minimally invasive salivary antibody biomarkers in cross-sectional and prospective surveys are discussed. Summary We highlight recent advances and challenges and outline future directions for research, development, and application of antibody-based and other immunological biomarkers of waterborne infections. PMID:27352014

Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Eckmanns, Tim; Abu Sin, Muna; Ducomble, Tanja; Harder, Thomas; Sixtensson, Madlen; Velasco, Edward; Weiß, Bettina; Kramarz, Piotr; Monnet, Dominique L.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Suetens, Carl

2016-01-01

Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease

Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

Population Pharmacokinetics and Optimal Sampling Strategy for Model-Based Precision Dosing of Melphalan in Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Mizuno, Kana; Dong, Min; Fukuda, Tsuyoshi; Chandra, Sharat; Mehta, Parinda A; McConnell, Scott; Anaissie, Elias J; Vinks, Alexander A

2018-05-01

High-dose melphalan is an important component of conditioning regimens for patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The current dosing strategy based on body surface area results in a high incidence of oral mucositis and gastrointestinal and liver toxicity. Pharmacokinetically guided dosing will individualize exposure and help minimize overexposure-related toxicity. The purpose of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model and optimal sampling strategy. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed with NONMEM using 98 observations collected from 15 adult patients given the standard dose of 140 or 200 mg/m 2 by intravenous infusion. The determinant-optimal sampling strategy was explored with PopED software. Individual area under the curve estimates were generated by Bayesian estimation using full and the proposed sparse sampling data. The predictive performance of the optimal sampling strategy was evaluated based on bias and precision estimates. The feasibility of the optimal sampling strategy was tested using pharmacokinetic data from five pediatric patients. A two-compartment model best described the data. The final model included body weight and creatinine clearance as predictors of clearance. The determinant-optimal sampling strategies (and windows) were identified at 0.08 (0.08-0.19), 0.61 (0.33-0.90), 2.0 (1.3-2.7), and 4.0 (3.6-4.0) h post-infusion. An excellent correlation was observed between area under the curve estimates obtained with the full and the proposed four-sample strategy (R 2  = 0.98; p < 0.01) with a mean bias of -2.2% and precision of 9.4%. A similar relationship was observed in children (R 2  = 0.99; p < 0.01). The developed pharmacokinetic model-based sparse sampling strategy promises to achieve the target area under the curve as part of precision dosing.

Subgroup-specific effects of questionnaire wording on population-based estimates of mammography prevalence.

PubMed Central

Siegel, P Z; Qualters, J R; Mowery, P D; Campostrini, S; Leutzinger, C; McQueen, D V

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated whether an apparent downturn in prevalence rates of mammography use reported in the 1992 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) questionnaire resulted from a change in questionnaire wording. METHODS: In a pretest-posttest design (1990-1991 vs 1992), piecewise linear regression analyses were based on monthly prevalence estimates of mammography use among female BRFSS respondents 40 years or older. RESULTS: Self-reported mammography use was lower by 3.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.5, 5.5) overall--and lower by 13.6 percentage points (95% CI = 2.6, 24.6) among Black women with less than a high school education--when predicted from 1992 data than when predicted from 1990-1991 data. CONCLUSIONS: A change in questionnaire wording in the BRFSS caused demographic-specific effects in population-based estimates of mammography use. PMID:11344896

Estimating the number of sex workers in South Africa: rapid population size estimation.

PubMed

Konstant, Tracey L; Rangasami, Jerushah; Stacey, Maria J; Stewart, Michelle L; Nogoduka, Coceka

2015-02-01

Although recognized as a vulnerable population, there is no national population size estimate for sex workers in South Africa. A rapid sex worker enumeration exercise was undertaken in twelve locations across the country based on principles of participatory mapping and Wisdom of the Crowd. Sites with a range of characteristics were selected, focusing on level of urbanisation, trucking, mining and borders. At each site, sex worker focus groups mapped local hotspots. Interviews with sex workers at identified hotspots were used to estimate the numbers and genders of sex workers working in each. Estimates provided in the literature were combined with enumeration exercise results to define assumptions that could be applied to a national extrapolation. A working estimate was reached of between 131,000 and 182,000 sex worker in South Africa, or between 0.76 and 1 % of the adult female population. The success of the exercise depended on integral involvement of sex worker peer educators and strong ethical considerations.

Costs of cervical cancer treatment: population-based estimates from Ontario

PubMed Central

Pendrith, C.; Thind, A.; Zaric, G.S.; Sarma, S.

2016-01-01

Objectives The objectives of the present study were to estimate the overall and specific medical care costs associated with cervical cancer in the first 5 years after diagnosis in Ontario. Methods Incident cases of invasive cervical cancer during 2007–2010 were identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry and linked to administrative databases held at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. Mean costs in 2010 Canadian dollars were estimated using the arithmetic mean and estimators that adjust for censored data. Results Mean age of the patients in the study cohort (779 cases) was 49.3 years. The mean overall medical care cost was $39,187 [standard error (se): $1,327] in the 1st year after diagnosis. Costs in year 1 ranged from $34,648 (se: $1,275) for those who survived at least 1 year to $69,142 (se: $4,818) for those who died from cervical cancer within 1 year. At 5 years after diagnosis, the mean overall unadjusted cost was $63,131 (se: $3,131), and the cost adjusted for censoring was $68,745 (se: $2,963). Inpatient hospitalizations and cancer-related care were the two largest components of cancer treatment costs. Conclusions We found that the estimated mean costs that did not account for censoring were consistently undervalued, highlighting the importance of estimates based on censoring-adjusted costs in cervical cancer. Our results are reliable for estimating the economic burden of cervical cancer and the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention strategies. PMID:27122978

Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Humm, J.; McCown, J. Walter; Scheick, B.K.; Clark, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear (Ursus americanus) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

Injuries in Aleppo, Syria; first population-based estimates and characterization of predominant types

PubMed Central

Maziak, Wasim; Ward, Kenneth D; Rastam, Samer

2006-01-01

Background Despite the growing burden of injuries worldwide, Syria and many other Arab countries still lack population-based estimates of different types of injuries. This study aims toprovide first population-based estimates of major injuries in Syria and characterize groups at increased risk. Methods An interviewer-administered population-based survey of adults 18–65 years residing in Aleppo, Syria was conducted in 2004. The study sample involved 2038 household representatives in Aleppo (45.2% men, mean age 35.3 ± 12.1, response rate 86%). We inquired about participants self-reported injuries in the past year that required medical attention as well as injuries among their household members. When reported, injuries were further assessed according to type, place, and outcome. Results Overall, there was 153 self-reported injuries in the past year (77.3 per 1000 adult respondents, 93.1 per 1000 in men and 64.4 per 1000 in women, p = 0.02). Other than gender, injuries differed by age (the older age group being least affected), and place of occurrence, as men were more likely to sustain traffic injuries and be injured outside the home. Injuries were reported among 236 household members (21.0 per 1000), and were slightly more frequent in children than adults (22.0 per 1000 for children, and 19.7 per 1000 for adults, p = 0.2). Traffic injuries, falls, and poisoning (food) were by far the most common types of injury experienced by participants as well as their household members. Falls and traffic injuries seem to have caused most morbidity for the injured, while burns, although not frequently reported, were associated with an unfavorable outcome in the majority of cases. Conclusion This information provides baseline information about the burden of different injuries in Syria, and the sociodemographic factors related to them. PMID:16533384

Estimating population trends with a linear model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Collins, Brian D.; Morrison, R.I.G.

2003-01-01

We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Dahmer, Paul A.

1987-01-01

An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

PubMed Central

Howes, Rosalind E.; Piel, Frédéric B.; Patil, Anand P.; Nyangiri, Oscar A.; Gething, Peter W.; Dewi, Mewahyu; Hogg, Mariana M.; Battle, Katherine E.; Padilla, Carmencita D.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

2012-01-01

Background Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk. Methods and Findings Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4–8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4–6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of

Insurance problems among inflammatory bowel disease patients: results of a Dutch population based study.

PubMed

Russel, M G V M; Ryan, B M; Dagnelie, P C; de Rooij, M; Sijbrandij, J; Feleus, A; Hesselink, M; Muris, J W; Stockbrugger, R

2003-03-01

The majority of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a normal life expectancy and therefore should not be weighted when applying for life assurance. There is scant literature on this topic. In this study our aim was to document and compare the incidence of difficulties in application for life and medical insurance in a population based cohort of IBD patients and matched population controls. A population based case control study of 1126 IBD patients and 1723 controls. Based on a detailed questionnaire, the frequency and type of difficulties encountered when applying for life and medical insurance in matched IBD and control populations were appraised. In comparison with controls, IBD patients had an 87-fold increased risk of encountering difficulties when applying for life assurance (odds ratio (OR) 87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 31-246)), with a heavily weighted premium being the most common problem. Patients of high educational status, with continuous disease activity, and who smoked had the highest odds of encountering such problems. Medical insurance difficulties were fivefold more common in IBD patients compared with controls (OR 5.4 (95% CI 2.3-13)) although no specific disease or patient characteristics were identified as associated with such difficulties. This is the first detailed case control study that has investigated insurance difficulties among IBD patients. Acquiring life and medical insurance constituted a major problem for IBD patients in this study. These results are likely to be more widely representative given that most insurance companies use international guidelines for risk assessment. In view of the recent advances in therapy and promising survival data on IBD patients, evidence based guidelines for risk assessment of IBD patients by insurance companies should be drawn up to prevent possible discriminatory practices.

Insurance problems among inflammatory bowel disease patients: results of a Dutch population based study

PubMed Central

Russel, M G V M; Ryan, B M; Dagnelie, P C; de Rooij, M; Sijbrandij, J; Feleus, A; Hesselink, M; Muris, J W; Stockbrugger, R

2003-01-01

Background and aims: The majority of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a normal life expectancy and therefore should not be weighted when applying for life assurance. There is scant literature on this topic. In this study our aim was to document and compare the incidence of difficulties in application for life and medical insurance in a population based cohort of IBD patients and matched population controls. Methods: A population based case control study of 1126 IBD patients and 1723 controls. Based on a detailed questionnaire, the frequency and type of difficulties encountered when applying for life and medical insurance in matched IBD and control populations were appraised. Results: In comparison with controls, IBD patients had an 87-fold increased risk of encountering difficulties when applying for life assurance (odds ratio (OR) 87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 31–246)), with a heavily weighted premium being the most common problem. Patients of high educational status, with continuous disease activity, and who smoked had the highest odds of encountering such problems. Medical insurance difficulties were fivefold more common in IBD patients compared with controls (OR 5.4 (95% CI 2.3–13)) although no specific disease or patient characteristics were identified as associated with such difficulties. Conclusions: This is the first detailed case control study that has investigated insurance difficulties among IBD patients. Acquiring life and medical insurance constituted a major problem for IBD patients in this study. These results are likely to be more widely representative given that most insurance companies use international guidelines for risk assessment. In view of the recent advances in therapy and promising survival data on IBD patients, evidence based guidelines for risk assessment of IBD patients by insurance companies should be drawn up to prevent possible discriminatory practices. PMID:12584216

Estimated Prevalence of the Target Population for Brain-Computer Interface Neurotechnology in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Pels, Elmar G M; Aarnoutse, Erik J; Ramsey, Nick F; Vansteensel, Mariska J

2017-07-01

People who suffer from paralysis have difficulties participating in society. Particularly burdensome is the locked-in syndrome (LIS). LIS patients are not able to move and speak but are cognitively healthy. They rely on assistive technology to interact with the world and may benefit from neurotechnological advances. Optimal research and design of such aids requires a well-defined target population. However, the LIS population is poorly characterized and the number of patients in this condition is unknown. Here we estimated and described the LIS patient population in the Netherlands to define the target population for assistive (neuro)technology. We asked physicians in the Netherlands if they had patients suffering from severe paralysis and communication problems in their files. Physicians responding affirmatively were asked to fill out a questionnaire on the patients' status. We sent out 9570 letters to general practitioners (GPs), who reported 83 patients. After first screening, the GPs of 46 patients received the questionnaire. Based on the responses, 26 patients were classified as having LIS. Extrapolation of these numbers resulted in a prevalence of 0.73 patients per 100 000 inhabitants. Notable results from the questionnaire were the percentage of patients with neuromuscular disease (>50%) and living at home (>70%). We revealed an etiologically diverse group of LIS patients. The functioning and needs of these patients were, however, similar and many relied on assistive technology. By characterizing the LIS population, our study may contribute to optimal development of assistive (neuro)technology.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Toward Robust Estimation of the Components of Forest Population Change

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

2014-01-01

Multiple levels of simulation are used to test the robustness of estimators of the components of change. I first created a variety of spatial-temporal populations based on, but more variable than, an actual forest monitoring data set and then sampled those populations under a variety of sampling error structures. The performance of each of four estimation approaches is...

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Using effort information with change-in-ratio data for population estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1995-01-01

Most change-in-ratio (CIR) methods for estimating fish and wildlife population sizes have been based only on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary among population subclasses. When information on sampling effort is available, it is also possible to derive CIR estimators based on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time. This paper presents a generalization of previous CIR models that allows explicit consideration of a range of assumptions about the variation of encounter probabilities among subclasses and over time. Explicit estimators are derived under this model for specific sets of assumptions about the encounter probabilities. Numerical methods are presented for obtaining estimators under the full range of possible assumptions. Likelihood ratio tests for these assumptions are described. Emphasis is on obtaining estimators based on assumptions about variation of encounter probabilities over time.

Life expectancy of colon, breast, and testicular cancer patients: an analysis of US-SEER population-based data.

PubMed

Capocaccia, R; Gatta, G; Dal Maso, L

2015-06-01

Cancer survivorship is an increasingly important issue in cancer control. Life expectancy of patients diagnosed with breast, colon, and testicular cancers, stratified by age at diagnosis and time since diagnosis, is provided as an indicator to evaluate future mortality risks and health care needs of cancer survivors. The standard period life table methodology was applied to estimate excess mortality risk for cancer patients diagnosed in 1985-2011 from SEER registries and mortality data of the general US population. The sensitivity of life expectancy estimates on different assumptions was evaluated. Younger patients with colon cancer showed wider differences in life expectancy compared with that of the general population (11.2 years in women and 10.7 in men at age 45-49 years) than older patients (6.3 and 5.8 at age 60-64 years, respectively). Life expectancy progressively increases in patients surviving the first years, up to 4 years from diagnosis, and then starts to decrease again, approaching that of the general population. For breast cancer, the initial drop in life expectancy is less marked, and again with wider differences in younger patients, varying from 8.7 at age 40-44 years to 2.4 at ages 70-74 years. After diagnosis, life expectancy still decreases with time, but less than that in the general population, slowly approaching that of cancer-free women. Life expectancy of men diagnosed with testicular cancer at age 30 years is estimated as 45.2 years, 2 years less than cancer-free men of the same age. The difference becomes 1.3 years for patients surviving the first year, and then slowly approaches zero with increasing survival time. Life expectancy provides meaningful information on cancer patients, and can help in assessing when a cancer survivor can be considered as cured. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Are cystatin C-based equations superior to creatinine-based equations for estimating GFR in Chinese elderly population?

PubMed

Pei, Xiaohua; Liu, Qiao; He, Juan; Bao, Lihua; Yan, Chengjing; Wu, Jianqing; Zhao, Weihong

2012-12-01

Cystatin C has been proposed as a surrogate marker of kidney function. The elderly population accounts for the largest proportion of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic value of serum cystatin C and compare the applicability of cystatin C-based equations with serum creatinine (Scr)-based equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR). The estimated GFR (eGFR) values from six cystatin C-based equations (Tan, MacIsaac, Ma, Stevens1-3) and three Scr-based equations (CG, MDRD, CKD-EPI) were compared with the reference GFR (rGFR) values from 99mTc-DTPA renal dynamic imaging method. A total of 110 elderly Chinese (60-92 year, 71.05±7.62 year) were enrolled. Cystatin C had better diagnostic value than Scr (relationship coefficient with rGFR: cystatin C -0.847 vs. Scr -0.729, P<0.01; sensitivity: cystatin C 0.90 vs. Scr 0.55, P<0.01; AUCROC: cystatin C 0.857 vs. Scr 0.757, P<0.01). All the equations predicted GFR more accurately for rGFR≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 than for rGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Most equations had acceptable accuracy. The cystatin C-based equations deviated from rGFR by -12.78 ml/min/1.73 m2 to -2.12 ml/min/1.73 m2, with accuracy varying from 64.6 to 82.7%. The Scr-based equations deviated from rGFR by -5.37 ml/min/1.73 m2 to -0.68 ml/min/1.73 m2, with accuracy varying from 77.3 to 79.1%. The CKD-EPI, MacIsaac and Ma equations predicted no bias with rGFR (P>0.05), with higher accuracy and lower deviation in the total group. The MacIsaac, CKD-EPI and Stevens3 equations could be optimal for those with normal and mildly impaired kidney function, whereas the Ma equation for those with CKD. Cystatin C is a promising kidney function marker. However, not all cystatin C-based equations could be superior to the Scr-equations.

Population based screening for chronic kidney disease: cost effectiveness study.

PubMed

Manns, Braden; Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Tonelli, Marcello; Au, Flora; Chiasson, T Carter; Dong, James; Klarenbach, Scott

2010-11-08

To determine the cost effectiveness of one-off population based screening for chronic kidney disease based on estimated glomerular filtration rate. Cost utility analysis of screening with estimated glomerular filtration rate alone compared with no screening (with allowance for incidental finding of cases of chronic kidney disease). Analyses were stratified by age, diabetes, and the presence or absence of proteinuria. Scenario and sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were performed. Costs were estimated in all adults and in subgroups defined by age, diabetes, and hypertension. Publicly funded Canadian healthcare system. Large population based laboratory cohort used to estimate mortality rates and incidence of end stage renal disease for patients with chronic kidney disease over a five year follow-up period. Patients had not previously undergone assessment of glomerular filtration rate. Lifetime costs, end stage renal disease, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost per QALY gained. Compared with no screening, population based screening for chronic kidney disease was associated with an incremental cost of $C463 (Canadian dollars in 2009; equivalent to about £275, €308, US $382) and a gain of 0.0044 QALYs per patient overall, representing a cost per QALY gained of $C104 900. In a cohort of 100 000 people, screening for chronic kidney disease would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 675 to 657. In subgroups of people with and without diabetes, the cost per QALY gained was $C22 600 and $C572 000, respectively. In a cohort of 100 000 people with diabetes, screening would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 1796 to 1741. In people without diabetes with and without hypertension, the cost per QALY gained was $C334 000 and $C1 411 100, respectively. Population based

Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parmenter, R.R.; Yates, Terry L.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Dunnum, J.L.; Franklin, A.B.; Friggens, M.T.; Lubow, B.C.; Miller, M.; Olson, G.S.; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Pollard, J.; Rexstad, E.; Shenk, T.M.; Stanley, T.R.; White, Gary C.

2003-01-01

��blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models Mb and Mbh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research

Estimating patient time costs associated with colorectal cancer care.

PubMed

Yabroff, K Robin; Warren, Joan L; Knopf, Kevin; Davis, William W; Brown, Martin L

2005-07-01

Nonmedical costs of care, such as patient time associated with travel to, waiting for, and seeking medical care, are rarely measured systematically with population-based data. The purpose of this study was to estimate patient time costs associated with colorectal cancer care. We identified categories of key medical services for colorectal cancer care and then estimated patient time associated with each service category using data from national surveys. To estimate average service frequencies for each service category, we used a nested case control design and SEER-Medicare data. Estimates were calculated by phase of care for cases and controls, using data from 1995 to 1998. Average service frequencies were then combined with estimates of patient time for each category of service, and the value of patient time assigned. Net patient time costs were calculated for each service category, summarized by phase of care, and compared with previously reported net direct costs of colorectal cancer care. Net patient time costs for the 3 phases of colorectal cancer care averaged dollar 4592 (95% confidence interval [CI] dollar 4427-4757) over the 12 months of the initial phase, dollar 2788 (95% CI dollar 2614-2963) over the 12 months of the terminal phase, and dollar 25 (95% CI: dollar 23-26) per month in the continuing phase of care. Hospitalizations accounted for more than two thirds of these estimates. Patient time costs were 19.3% of direct medical costs in the initial phase, 15.8% in the continuing phase, and 36.8% in the terminal phase of care. Patient time costs are an important component of the costs of colorectal cancer care. Application of this method to other tumor sites and inclusion of other components of the costs of medical care will be important in delineating the economic burden of cancer in the United States.

3D fluoroscopic image estimation using patient-specific 4DCBCT-based motion models

PubMed Central

Dhou, Salam; Hurwitz, Martina; Mishra, Pankaj; Cai, Weixing; Rottmann, Joerg; Li, Ruijiang; Williams, Christopher; Wagar, Matthew; Berbeco, Ross; Ionascu, Dan; Lewis, John H.

2015-01-01

3D fluoroscopic images represent volumetric patient anatomy during treatment with high spatial and temporal resolution. 3D fluoroscopic images estimated using motion models built using 4DCT images, taken days or weeks prior to treatment, do not reliably represent patient anatomy during treatment. In this study we develop and perform initial evaluation of techniques to develop patient-specific motion models from 4D cone-beam CT (4DCBCT) images, taken immediately before treatment, and use these models to estimate 3D fluoroscopic images based on 2D kV projections captured during treatment. We evaluate the accuracy of 3D fluoroscopic images by comparing to ground truth digital and physical phantom images. The performance of 4DCBCT- and 4DCT- based motion models are compared in simulated clinical situations representing tumor baseline shift or initial patient positioning errors. The results of this study demonstrate the ability for 4DCBCT imaging to generate motion models that can account for changes that cannot be accounted for with 4DCT-based motion models. When simulating tumor baseline shift and patient positioning errors of up to 5 mm, the average tumor localization error and the 95th percentile error in six datasets were 1.20 and 2.2 mm, respectively, for 4DCBCT-based motion models. 4DCT-based motion models applied to the same six datasets resulted in average tumor localization error and the 95th percentile error of 4.18 and 5.4 mm, respectively. Analysis of voxel-wise intensity differences was also conducted for all experiments. In summary, this study demonstrates the feasibility of 4DCBCT-based 3D fluoroscopic image generation in digital and physical phantoms, and shows the potential advantage of 4DCBCT-based 3D fluoroscopic image estimation when there are changes in anatomy between the time of 4DCT imaging and the time of treatment delivery. PMID:25905722

Population-based cancer survival in the United States: Data, quality control, and statistical methods.

PubMed

Allemani, Claudia; Harewood, Rhea; Johnson, Christopher J; Carreira, Helena; Spika, Devon; Bonaventure, Audrey; Ward, Kevin; Weir, Hannah K; Coleman, Michel P

2017-12-15

Robust comparisons of population-based cancer survival estimates require tight adherence to the study protocol, standardized quality control, appropriate life tables of background mortality, and centralized analysis. The CONCORD program established worldwide surveillance of population-based cancer survival in 2015, analyzing individual data on 26 million patients (including 10 million US patients) diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 with 1 of 10 common malignancies. In this Cancer supplement, we analyzed data from 37 state cancer registries that participated in the second cycle of the CONCORD program (CONCORD-2), covering approximately 80% of the US population. Data quality checks were performed in 3 consecutive phases: protocol adherence, exclusions, and editorial checks. One-, 3-, and 5-year age-standardized net survival was estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator and state- and race-specific life tables of all-cause mortality for each year. The cohort approach was adopted for patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2003, and the complete approach for patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2009. Articles in this supplement report population coverage, data quality indicators, and age-standardized 5-year net survival by state, race, and stage at diagnosis. Examples of tables, bar charts, and funnel plots are provided in this article. Population-based cancer survival is a key measure of the overall effectiveness of services in providing equitable health care. The high quality of US cancer registry data, 80% population coverage, and use of an unbiased net survival estimator ensure that the survival trends reported in this supplement are robustly comparable by race and state. The results can be used by policymakers to identify and address inequities in cancer survival in each state and for the United States nationally. Cancer 2017;123:4982-93. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U

Population Pharmacokinetics of Ceftizoxime Administered by Continuous Infusion in Clinically Ill Adult Patients

PubMed Central

Facca, Bryan; Frame, Bill; Triesenberg, Steve

1998-01-01

Ceftizoxime is a widely used beta-lactam antimicrobial agent, but pharmacokinetic data for use with clinically ill patients are lacking. We studied the population pharmacokinetics of ceftizoxime in 72 clinically ill patients at a community-based, university-affiliated hospital. A population pharmacokinetic model for ceftizoxime was created by using a prospective observational design. Ceftizoxime was administered by continuous infusion to treat patients with proven or suspected bacterial infections. While the patients were receiving infusions of ceftizoxime, serum samples were collected for pharmacokinetic analysis with the nonlinear mixed-effect modeling program NONMEM. In addition to clearance and volume of distribution, various comorbidities were examined for their influence on the kinetics. All 72 subjects completed the study, and 114 serum samples were collected. Several demographic and comorbidity variables, namely, age, weight, serum creatinine levels, congestive heart failure, and long-term ventilator dependency, had a significant impact on the estimate for ceftizoxime clearance. A mixture model, or two populations for estimation of ceftizoxime clearance, was discovered. One population presented with an additive clearance component of 1.6 liters per h. In addition, a maximizer function for serum creatinine levels was found. In summary, two models for ceftizoxime clearance, mixture and nonmixture, were found and are presented. Clearance for ceftizoxime can be estimated with commonly available clinical information and the models presented. From the clearance estimates, the dose of ceftizoxime to maintain the desired concentration in serum can be determined. Work is needed to validate the model for drug clearance and to evaluate its predictive performance. PMID:9661021

Population and Housing Unit Estimates

Science.gov Websites

United States Census Bureau Topics Population Latest Information Age and Sex Ancestry Children Mobility Population Estimates Population Projections Race Veterans Economy Latest Information Portal Other Economic Programs Business Latest Information Business Characteristics Classification Codes

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

PubMed

Simarro, Pere P; Cecchi, Giuliano; Franco, José R; Paone, Massimo; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Ruiz-Postigo, José Antonio; Fèvre, Eric M; Mattioli, Raffaele C; Jannin, Jean G

2012-01-01

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population. Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2) are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported. Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the

Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

2004-01-01

Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

Erectile Dysfunction in Patients with Sleep Apnea--A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Chen, Chia-Min; Tsai, Ming-Ju; Wei, Po-Ju; Su, Yu-Chung; Yang, Chih-Jen; Wu, Meng-Ni; Hsu, Chung-Yao; Hwang, Shang-Jyh; Chong, Inn-Wen; Huang, Ming-Shyan

2015-01-01

Increased incidence of erectile dysfunction (ED) has been reported among patients with sleep apnea (SA). However, this association has not been confirmed in a large-scale study. We therefore performed a population-based cohort study using Taiwan National Health Insurance (NHI) database to investigate the association of SA and ED. From the database of one million representative subjects randomly sampled from individuals enrolled in the NHI system in 2010, we identified adult patients having SA and excluded those having a diagnosis of ED prior to SA. From these suspected SA patients, those having SA diagnosis after polysomnography were defined as probable SA patients. The dates of their first SA diagnosis were defined as their index dates. Each SA patient was matched to 30 randomly-selected, age-matched control subjects without any SA diagnosis. The control subjects were assigned index dates as their corresponding SA patients, and were ensured having no ED diagnosis prior to their index dates. Totally, 4,835 male patients with suspected SA (including 1,946 probable SA patients) were matched to 145,050 control subjects (including 58,380 subjects matched to probable SA patients). The incidence rate of ED was significantly higher in probable SA patients as compared with the corresponding control subjects (5.7 vs. 2.3 per 1000 patient-year; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0 [95% CI: 1.8-2.2], p<0.0001). The cumulative incidence was also significantly higher in the probable SA patients (p<0.0001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, probable SA remained a significant risk factor for the development of ED after adjusting for age, residency, income level and comorbidities (hazard ratio = 2.0 [95%CI: 1.5-2.7], p<0.0001). In line with previous studies, this population-based large-scale study confirmed an increased ED incidence in SA patients in Chinese population. Physicians need to pay attention to the possible underlying SA while treating ED patients.

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

2017-02-01

The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

Risk of depression in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis: A nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Hsu, Che-Lun; Wang, Tang-Chuan; Shen, Te-Chun; Huang, Yu-Jhen; Lin, Cheng-Li; Sung, Fung-Chang

2016-12-01

Depression is prevalent in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS). However, no population-based study has ever investigated this relationship. We used nationwide population insurance data to conduct a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the subsequent risk of depression among patients with CRS. We used the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan identified 15,371 CRS patients diagnosed during 2000-2010. The non-CRS group consisted of 61,484 individuals without CRS frequency matched by sex, age, and the year of diagnosis. The occurrence of depression was monitored until the end of 2011. The hazard ratios (HRs) of depression were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model after adjusting for demographic characteristics and comorbidities. The overall incidence of depression was 77% higher in the CRS group than in the non-CRS group (8.25 vs. 4.66/1000 person-years, p<0.001), with an adjusted HR of 1.56 (95% confidence interval=1.43-1.70). Further data analyses revealed that the adjusted HRs of depression in the CRS group compared with the non-CRS group by sex, age, urbanization level, monthly income, occupation category, and comorbidity were all significant. However, there was no difference in incidences of depression between CRS patients with and without surgical treatment (8.31 vs. 8.24/1000 person-years). The present study suggests that patients with CRS are at an increased risk of depression, compared with those without CRS. Therefore, we should pay attention to the psychiatric status of these patients and provide adequate support for them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

2013-02-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

2013-01-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Population Estimation Methods for Free-Ranging Dogs: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Belo, Vinícius Silva; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Struchiner, Claudio José

2015-01-01

The understanding of the structure of free-roaming dog populations is of extreme importance for the planning and monitoring of populational control strategies and animal welfare. The methods used to estimate the abundance of this group of dogs are more complex than the ones used with domiciled owned dogs. In this systematic review, we analyze the techniques and the results obtained in studies that seek to estimate the size of free-ranging dog populations. Twenty-six studies were reviewed regarding the quality of execution and their capacity to generate valid estimates. Seven of the eight publications that take a simple count of the animal population did not consider the different probabilities of animal detection; only one study used methods based on distances; twelve relied on capture-recapture models for closed populations without considering heterogeneities in capture probabilities; six studies applied their own methods with different potential and limitations. Potential sources of bias in the studies were related to the inadequate description or implementation of animal capturing or viewing procedures and to inadequacies in the identification and registration of dogs. Thus, there was a predominance of estimates with low validity. Abundance and density estimates carried high variability, and all studies identified a greater number of male dogs. We point to enhancements necessary for the implementation of future studies and to potential updates and revisions to the recommendations of the World Health Organization with respect to the estimation of free-ranging dog populations.

Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model Methods The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). Results The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Conclusions Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades. PMID:21214916

Suicidal ideation and attempts in patients with stroke: a population-based study.

PubMed

Chung, Jae Ho; Kim, Jung Bin; Kim, Ji Hyun

2016-10-01

Stroke is known to be associated with an increase in the risk for suicide. However, there are very few population-based studies investigating the risk of suicidal ideation and attempts in patients with stroke. The purpose of this study was to compare the risk of suicidal ideation and attempts between patients with stroke and population without stroke using nationwide survey data. Individual-level data were obtained from 228,735 participants (4560 with stroke and 224,175 without stroke) of the 2013 Korean Community Health Survey. Demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, physical health status, and mental health status were compared between patients with stroke and population without stroke. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to investigate the independent effects of the stroke on suicidal ideation and attempts. Stroke patients had more depressive mood (12.6 %) than population without stroke (5.7 %, p < 0.001). Stroke patients experienced more suicidal ideation (24.4 %) and attempts (1.3 %) than population without stroke (9.8 and 0.4 %, respectively; both p < 0.001). Stroke was found to increase the risk for suicidal ideation (OR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.52-1.79) and suicidal attempts (OR 1.64, 95 % CI 1.21-2.22), adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic factors, and physical health and mental health factors. We found that stroke increased the risk for suicidal ideation and attempts, independent of other factors that are known to be associated with suicidality, suggesting that stroke per se may be an independent risk factor for suicidality.

Estimating mean change in population salt intake using spot urine samples.

PubMed

Petersen, Kristina S; Wu, Jason H Y; Webster, Jacqui; Grimes, Carley; Woodward, Mark; Nowson, Caryl A; Neal, Bruce

2017-10-01

Spot urine samples are easier to collect than 24-h urine samples and have been used with estimating equations to derive the mean daily salt intake of a population. Whether equations using data from spot urine samples can also be used to estimate change in mean daily population salt intake over time is unknown. We compared estimates of change in mean daily population salt intake based upon 24-h urine collections with estimates derived using equations based on spot urine samples. Paired and unpaired 24-h urine samples and spot urine samples were collected from individuals in two Australian populations, in 2011 and 2014. Estimates of change in daily mean population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 were obtained directly from the 24-h urine samples and by applying established estimating equations (Kawasaki, Tanaka, Mage, Toft, INTERSALT) to the data from spot urine samples. Differences between 2011 and 2014 were calculated using mixed models. A total of 1000 participants provided a 24-h urine sample and a spot urine sample in 2011, and 1012 did so in 2014 (paired samples n = 870; unpaired samples n = 1142). The participants were community-dwelling individuals living in the State of Victoria or the town of Lithgow in the State of New South Wales, Australia, with a mean age of 55 years in 2011. The mean (95% confidence interval) difference in population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 determined from the 24-h urine samples was -0.48g/day (-0.74 to -0.21; P < 0.001). The corresponding result estimated from the spot urine samples was -0.24 g/day (-0.42 to -0.06; P = 0.01) using the Tanaka equation, -0.42 g/day (-0.70 to -0.13; p = 0.004) using the Kawasaki equation, -0.51 g/day (-1.00 to -0.01; P = 0.046) using the Mage equation, -0.26 g/day (-0.42 to -0.10; P = 0.001) using the Toft equation, -0.20 g/day (-0.32 to -0.09; P = 0.001) using the INTERSALT equation and -0.27 g/day (-0.39 to -0.15; P < 0.001) using the

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR) of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution), LandScan (~1 km), UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km), and GPW3 (~5 km). More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was consistently more

An atlas-based organ dose estimator for tomosynthesis and radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoye, Jocelyn; Zhang, Yakun; Agasthya, Greeshma; Sturgeon, Greg; Kapadia, Anuj; Segars, W. Paul; Samei, Ehsan

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study was to provide patient-specific organ dose estimation based on an atlas of human models for twenty tomosynthesis and radiography protocols. The study utilized a library of 54 adult computational phantoms (age: 18-78 years, weight 52-117 kg) and a validated Monte-Carlo simulation (PENELOPE) of a tomosynthesis and radiography system to estimate organ dose. Positioning of patient anatomy was based on radiographic positioning handbooks. The field of view for each exam was calculated to include relevant organs per protocol. Through simulations, the energy deposited in each organ was binned to estimate normalized organ doses into a reference database. The database can be used as the basis to devise a dose calculator to predict patient-specific organ dose values based on kVp, mAs, exposure in air, and patient habitus for a given protocol. As an example of the utility of this tool, dose to an organ was studied as a function of average patient thickness in the field of view for a given exam and as a function of Body Mass Index (BMI). For tomosynthesis, organ doses can also be studied as a function of x-ray tube position. This work developed comprehensive information for organ dose dependencies across tomosynthesis and radiography. There was a general exponential decrease dependency with increasing patient size that is highly protocol dependent. There was a wide range of variability in organ dose across the patient population, which needs to be incorporated in the metrology of organ dose.

Estimating total population size for Songbirds

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

One-step estimation of networked population size: Respondent-driven capture-recapture with anonymity.

PubMed

Khan, Bilal; Lee, Hsuan-Wei; Fellows, Ian; Dombrowski, Kirk

2018-01-01

Size estimation is particularly important for populations whose members experience disproportionate health issues or pose elevated health risks to the ambient social structures in which they are embedded. Efforts to derive size estimates are often frustrated when the population is hidden or hard-to-reach in ways that preclude conventional survey strategies, as is the case when social stigma is associated with group membership or when group members are involved in illegal activities. This paper extends prior research on the problem of network population size estimation, building on established survey/sampling methodologies commonly used with hard-to-reach groups. Three novel one-step, network-based population size estimators are presented, for use in the context of uniform random sampling, respondent-driven sampling, and when networks exhibit significant clustering effects. We give provably sufficient conditions for the consistency of these estimators in large configuration networks. Simulation experiments across a wide range of synthetic network topologies validate the performance of the estimators, which also perform well on a real-world location-based social networking data set with significant clustering. Finally, the proposed schemes are extended to allow them to be used in settings where participant anonymity is required. Systematic experiments show favorable tradeoffs between anonymity guarantees and estimator performance. Taken together, we demonstrate that reasonable population size estimates are derived from anonymous respondent driven samples of 250-750 individuals, within ambient populations of 5,000-40,000. The method thus represents a novel and cost-effective means for health planners and those agencies concerned with health and disease surveillance to estimate the size of hidden populations. We discuss limitations and future work in the concluding section.

The Petersen-Lincoln estimator and its extension to estimate the size of a shared population.

PubMed

Chao, Anne; Pan, H-Y; Chiang, Shu-Chuan

2008-12-01

The Petersen-Lincoln estimator has been used to estimate the size of a population in a single mark release experiment. However, the estimator is not valid when the capture sample and recapture sample are not independent. We provide an intuitive interpretation for "independence" between samples based on 2 x 2 categorical data formed by capture/non-capture in each of the two samples. From the interpretation, we review a general measure of "dependence" and quantify the correlation bias of the Petersen-Lincoln estimator when two types of dependences (local list dependence and heterogeneity of capture probability) exist. An important implication in the census undercount problem is that instead of using a post enumeration sample to assess the undercount of a census, one should conduct a prior enumeration sample to avoid correlation bias. We extend the Petersen-Lincoln method to the case of two populations. This new estimator of the size of the shared population is proposed and its variance is derived. We discuss a special case where the correlation bias of the proposed estimator due to dependence between samples vanishes. The proposed method is applied to a study of the relapse rate of illicit drug use in Taiwan. ((c) 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim).

Quantification of residual dose estimation error on log file-based patient dose calculation.

PubMed

Katsuta, Yoshiyuki; Kadoya, Noriyuki; Fujita, Yukio; Shimizu, Eiji; Matsunaga, Kenichi; Matsushita, Haruo; Majima, Kazuhiro; Jingu, Keiichi

2016-05-01

The log file-based patient dose estimation includes a residual dose estimation error caused by leaf miscalibration, which cannot be reflected on the estimated dose. The purpose of this study is to determine this residual dose estimation error. Modified log files for seven head-and-neck and prostate volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans simulating leaf miscalibration were generated by shifting both leaf banks (systematic leaf gap errors: ±2.0, ±1.0, and ±0.5mm in opposite directions and systematic leaf shifts: ±1.0mm in the same direction) using MATLAB-based (MathWorks, Natick, MA) in-house software. The generated modified and non-modified log files were imported back into the treatment planning system and recalculated. Subsequently, the generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) was quantified for the definition of the planning target volume (PTV) and organs at risks. For MLC leaves calibrated within ±0.5mm, the quantified residual dose estimation errors that obtained from the slope of the linear regression of gEUD changes between non- and modified log file doses per leaf gap are in head-and-neck plans 1.32±0.27% and 0.82±0.17Gy for PTV and spinal cord, respectively, and in prostate plans 1.22±0.36%, 0.95±0.14Gy, and 0.45±0.08Gy for PTV, rectum, and bladder, respectively. In this work, we determine the residual dose estimation errors for VMAT delivery using the log file-based patient dose calculation according to the MLC calibration accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Differential Estimates of Southern Flying Squirrel (Glaucomys volans) Population Structure Based on Capture Method.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laves, Kevin S.; Loeb, Susan C.

2006-01-01

ABSTRACT.—It is commonly assumed that population estimates derived from trapping small mammals are accurate and unbiased or that estimates derived from different capture methods are comparable. We captured southern flying squirrels (Glaucomys volans) using two methods to study their effect on red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) reproductive success. Southern flying squirrels were captured at and removed from 30 red-cockaded woodpecker cluster sites during March to July 1994 and 1995 using Sherman traps placed in a grid encompassing a red-cockaded woodpecker nest tree and by hand from red-cockaded woodpecker cavities. Totals of 195 (1994) and 190 (1995) red-cockaded woodpecker cavities were examinedmore » at least three times each year. Trappability of southern flying squirrels in Sherman traps was significantly greater in 1995 (1.18%; 22,384 trap nights) than in 1994 (0.42%; 20,384 trap nights), and capture rate of southern flying squirrels in cavities was significantly greater in 1994 (22.7%; 502 cavity inspections) than in 1995 (10.8%; 555 cavity inspections). However, more southern flying squirrels were captured per cavity inspection than per Sherman trap night in both years. Male southern flying squirrels were more likely to be captured from cavities than in Sherman traps in 1994, but not in 1995. Both male and female juveniles were more likely to be captured in cavities than in traps in both years. In 1994 males in reproductive condition were more likely to be captured in cavities than in traps and in 1995 we captured significantly more reproductive females in cavities than in traps. Our data suggest that population estimates based solely on one trapping method may not represent true population size or structure of southern flying squirrels.« less

Sampling-based approaches to improve estimation of mortality among patient dropouts: experience from a large PEPFAR-funded program in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Yiannoutsos, Constantin T; An, Ming-Wen; Frangakis, Constantine E; Musick, Beverly S; Braitstein, Paula; Wools-Kaloustian, Kara; Ochieng, Daniel; Martin, Jeffrey N; Bacon, Melanie C; Ochieng, Vincent; Kimaiyo, Sylvester

2008-01-01

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of HIV care and treatment programs is impacted by losses to follow-up (LTFU) in the patient population. The severity of this effect is undeniable but its extent unknown. Tracing all lost patients addresses this but census methods are not feasible in programs involving rapid scale-up of HIV treatment in the developing world. Sampling-based approaches and statistical adjustment are the only scaleable methods permitting accurate estimation of M&E indices. In a large antiretroviral therapy (ART) program in western Kenya, we assessed the impact of LTFU on estimating patient mortality among 8,977 adult clients of whom, 3,624 were LTFU. Overall, dropouts were more likely male (36.8% versus 33.7%; p = 0.003), and younger than non-dropouts (35.3 versus 35.7 years old; p = 0.020), with lower median CD4 count at enrollment (160 versus 189 cells/ml; p<0.001) and WHO stage 3-4 disease (47.5% versus 41.1%; p<0.001). Urban clinic clients were 75.0% of non-dropouts but 70.3% of dropouts (p<0.001). Of the 3,624 dropouts, 1,143 were sought and 621 had their vital status ascertained. Statistical techniques were used to adjust mortality estimates based on information obtained from located LTFU patients. Observed mortality estimates one year after enrollment were 1.7% (95% CI 1.3%-2.0%), revised to 2.8% (2.3%-3.1%) when deaths discovered through outreach were added and adjusted to 9.2% (7.8%-10.6%) and 9.9% (8.4%-11.5%) through statistical modeling depending on the method used. The estimates 12 months after ART initiation were 1.7% (1.3%-2.2%), 3.4% (2.9%-4.0%), 10.5% (8.7%-12.3%) and 10.7% (8.9%-12.6%) respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE ABSTRACT: Assessment of the impact of LTFU is critical in program M&E as estimated mortality based on passive monitoring may underestimate true mortality by up to 80%. This bias can be ameliorated by tracing a sample of dropouts and statistically adjust the mortality estimates to properly evaluate and guide large HIV

Cure by age and stage at diagnosis for colorectal cancer patients in North West England, 1997-2004: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shack, L G; Shah, A; Lambert, P C; Rachet, B

2012-12-01

Stage and age at diagnosis are important prognostic factors for patients with colorectal cancer. However, the proportion cured by stage and age is unknown in England. This population-based study includes 29,563 adult patients who were diagnosed and registered with colorectal cancer during 1997-2004 and followed till 2007 in North West England. Multiple imputation was used to provide more reliable estimates of stage at diagnosis, when these data were missing. Cure mixture models were used to estimate the proportion 'cured' and the median survival of the uncured by age and stage. For both colon and rectal cancer the proportion of patients cured and median survival time of the uncured decreased with advancing stage and increasing age. Patients aged under 65 years had the highest proportion cured and longest median survival of the uncured. Cure of colorectal cancer patients is dependent on stage and age at diagnosis with younger patients or those with less advanced disease having a better prognosis. Further efforts are required, in order to reduce the proportion of patients presenting with stage III and IV disease and ultimately increase the chance of cure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methods of Suicide among Cancer Patients: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Kuo-Hsuan; Lin, Herng-Ching

2010-01-01

A 3-year nationwide population-based data set was used to explore methods of suicide (violent vs. nonviolent) and possible contributing factors among cancer patients in Taiwan. A total of 1,065 cancer inpatients who committed suicide were included as our study sample. The regression shows that those who had genitourinary cancer were 0.55 times (p…

Screening for carcinoma in situ in the contralateral testicle in patients with testicular cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Kier, M G G; Lauritsen, J; Almstrup, K; Mortensen, M S; Toft, B G; Rajpert-De Meyts, E; Skakkebaek, N E; Rørth, M; von der Maase, H; Agerbaek, M; Holm, N V; Andersen, K K; Dalton, S O; Johansen, C; Daugaard, G

2015-04-01

Screening programmes for contralateral carcinoma in situ (CIS) testis in patients with unilateral germ-cell cancer (GCC) have never been evaluated. We investigated the effect of screening for contralateral CIS in a large nation-wide, population-based study. A contralateral single-site biopsy was offered to 4130 patients in whom GCC had been diagnosed in 1984-2007 (screened cohort); 462 patients in whom GCC was diagnosed in 1984-1988 comprised the unscreened cohort. Cases with CIS were offered radiotherapy. Initially CIS-negative biopsies in patients with metachronous GCC were revised according to today's standards. Risk for metachronous GCC was estimated using cumulative incidence and the Cox proportional hazards model. In the screened cohort, contralateral CIS was found in 181 (4.4%) patients. The cumulative incidence of metachronous GCC after 20 years was 1.9% in the screened cohort and 3.1% in the unscreened cohort (P = 0.097), hazard ratio (HR) for the unscreened cohort: 1.59 (P = 0.144). Expert revision with contemporary methodology of CIS-negative biopsy samples from patients with metachronous cancer revealed CIS in 17 out of 45 (38%) cases. Decreased risks for metachronous GCC were related to older age at diagnosis (HR 0.52 per 10 years, P < 0.001) and chemotherapy (HR 0.35, P = 0.002). Limitations include the small number of patients in the unscreened cohort and the retrospective study design. Our evaluation of a national population-based screening programme for contralateral CIS in patients with testicular cancer showed no significant difference in the risk for metachronous GCC between a screened and an unscreened cohort. Single-site biopsy including modern immunohistochemistry does not identify all cases of CIS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the

Venous Thromboembolism and Cerebrovascular Events in Patients with Giant Cell Arteritis: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Crowson, Cynthia S.; Makol, Ashima; Ytterberg, Steven R.; Saitta, Antonino; Salvarani, Carlo; Matteson, Eric L.; Warrington, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and cerebrovascular events in a community-based incidence cohort of patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA) compared to the general population. Methods A population-based inception cohort of patients with incident GCA between January 1, 1950 and December 31, 2009 in Olmsted County, Minnesota and a cohort of non-GCA subjects from the same population were assembled and followed until December 31, 2013. Confirmed VTE and cerebrovascular events were identified through direct medical record review. Results The study population included 244 patients with GCA with a mean ± SD age at diagnosis of 76.2 ± 8.2 years (79% women) and an average length of follow-up of 10.2 ± 6.8 years. Compared to non-GCA subjects of similar age and sex, patients diagnosed with GCA had a higher incidence (%) of amaurosis fugax (cumulative incidence ± SE: 2.1 ± 0.9 versus 0, respectively; p = 0.014) but similar rates of stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and VTE. Among patients with GCA, neither baseline characteristics nor laboratory parameters at diagnosis reliably predicted risk of VTE or cerebrovascular events. Conclusion In this population-based study, the incidence of VTE, stroke and TIA was similar in patients with GCA compared to non-GCA subjects. PMID:26901431

Estimating canine cancer incidence: findings from a population-based tumour registry in northwestern Italy.

PubMed

Baioni, Elisa; Scanziani, Eugenio; Vincenti, Maria Claudia; Leschiera, Mauro; Bozzetta, Elena; Pezzolato, Marzia; Desiato, Rosanna; Bertolini, Silvia; Maurella, Cristiana; Ru, Giuseppe

2017-06-28

Canine cancer registry data can be put to good use in epidemiological studies. Quantitative comparison of tumour types may reveal unusual cancer frequencies, providing directions for research and generation of hypotheses of cancer causation in a specific area, and suggest leads for identifying risk factors. Here we report canine cancer incidence rates calculated from a population-based registry in an area without any known specific environmental hazard. In its 90 months of operation from 2001 to 2008 (the observation period in this study), the population-based Piedmont Canine Cancer Registry collected data on 1175 tumours confirmed by histopathological diagnosis. The incidence rate was 804 per 100,000 dog-years for malignant tumours and 897 per 100,000 dog-years for benign tumours. Higher rates for all cancers were observed in purebred dogs, particularly in Yorkshire terrier and Boxer. The most prevalent malignant neoplasms were cutaneous mastocytoma and hemangiopericytoma, and mammary gland complex carcinoma and simplex carcinoma. The Piedmont canine cancer registry is one of few of its kind whose operations have been consistently supported by long-term public funding. The registry-based cancer incidence rates were estimated with particular attention to the validity of data collection, thus minimizing the potential for bias. The findings on cancer incidence rates may provide a reliable reference for comparison studies. Researches conducted on dogs, used as sentinels for community exposure to environmental carcinogens, can be useful to detect excess risks in the incidence of malignant tumours in the human population.

Bias of animal population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geissler, P.H.; Link, W.A.; Wegman, E.J.; Gantz, D.T.; Miller, J.J.

1988-01-01

A computer simulation study of the population trend estimator used for the Mourning Dove Call-Count Survey, Woodcock Singing Ground Survey, Breeding Bird Survey and other surveys concluded that the estimator had negligible bias in most situations but that observer covariables should not be used with less than five years of data. With rare species (e.g. two birds per route), at least five years should be used. The estimator is seriously biased towards not detecting population changes with very rare species (e.g. 0.3 birds per route). Other technical recommendations are made.

Estimated collective effective dose to the population from nuclear medicine examinations in Slovenia

PubMed Central

Skrk, Damijan; Zontar, Dejan

2013-01-01

Background A national survey of patient exposure from nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures was performed by Slovenian Radiation Protection Administration in order to estimate their contribution to the collective effective dose to the population of Slovenia. Methods A set of 36 examinations with the highest contributions to the collective effective dose was identified. Data about frequencies and average administered activities of radioisotopes used for those examinations were collected from all nuclear medicine departments in Slovenia. A collective effective dose to the population and an effective dose per capita were estimated from the collected data using dose conversion factors. Results The total collective effective dose to the population from nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures in 2011 was estimated to 102 manSv, giving an effective dose per capita of 0.05 mSv. Conclusions The comparison of results of this study with studies performed in other countries indicates that the nuclear medicine providers in Slovenia are well aware of the importance of patient protection measures and of optimisation of procedures. PMID:24133396

Risk for Arterial and Venous Thrombosis in Patients With Myeloproliferative Neoplasms: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Hultcrantz, Malin; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W; Landgren, Ola; Derolf, Åsa R; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y; Andersson, Therese M L

2018-03-06

Patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are reported to be at increased risk for thrombotic events. However, no population-based study has estimated this excess risk compared with matched control participants. To assess risk for arterial and venous thrombosis in patients with MPNs compared with matched control participants. Matched cohort study. Population-based setting in Sweden from 1987 to 2009, with follow-up to 2010. 9429 patients with MPNs and 35 820 matched control participants. The primary outcomes were rates of arterial and venous thrombosis. Flexible parametric models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and cumulative incidence with 95% CIs. The HRs for arterial thrombosis among patients with MPNs compared with control participants at 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years were 3.0 (95% CI, 2.7 to 3.4), 2.0 (CI, 1.8 to 2.2), and 1.5 (CI, 1.4 to 1.6), respectively. The corresponding HRs for venous thrombosis were 9.7 (CI, 7.8 to 12.0), 4.7 (CI, 4.0 to 5.4), and 3.2 (CI, 2.9 to 3.6). The rate was significantly elevated across all age groups and was similar among MPN subtypes. The 5-year cumulative incidence of thrombosis in patients with MPNs showed an initial rapid increase followed by gentler increases during follow-up. The HR for venous thrombosis decreased during more recent calendar periods. No information on individual laboratory results or treatment. Patients with MPNs across all age groups have a significantly increased rate of arterial and venous thrombosis compared with matched control participants, with the highest rates at and shortly after diagnosis. Decreases in the rate of venous thrombosis over time likely reflect advances in clinical management. The Cancer Research Foundations of Radiumhemmet, Blodcancerfonden, the Swedish Research Council, the regional agreement on medical training and clinical research between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska Institutet, the Adolf H. Lundin Charitable Foundation, and Memorial Sloan

Estimating Pressure Reactivity Using Noninvasive Doppler-Based Systolic Flow Index.

PubMed

Zeiler, Frederick A; Smielewski, Peter; Donnelly, Joseph; Czosnyka, Marek; Menon, David K; Ercole, Ari

2018-04-05

The study objective was to derive models that estimate the pressure reactivity index (PRx) using the noninvasive transcranial Doppler (TCD) based systolic flow index (Sx_a) and mean flow index (Mx_a), both based on mean arterial pressure, in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Using a retrospective database of 347 patients with TBI with intracranial pressure and TCD time series recordings, we derived PRx, Sx_a, and Mx_a. We first derived the autocorrelative structure of PRx based on: (A) autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) modeling in representative patients, and (B) within sequential linear mixed effects (LME) models with various embedded ARIMA error structures for PRx for the entire population. Finally, we performed sequential LME models with embedded PRx ARIMA modeling to find the best model for estimating PRx using Sx_a and Mx_a. Model adequacy was assessed via normally distributed residual density. Model superiority was assessed via Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log likelihood (LL), and analysis of variance testing between models. The most appropriate ARIMA structure for PRx in this population was (2,0,2). This was applied in sequential LME modeling. Two models were superior (employing random effects in the independent variables and intercept): (A) PRx ∼ Sx_a, and (B) PRx ∼ Sx_a + Mx_a. Correlation between observed and estimated PRx with these two models was: (A) 0.794 (p < 0.0001, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.788-0.799), and (B) 0.814 (p < 0.0001, 95% CI = 0.809-0.819), with acceptable agreement on Bland-Altman analysis. Through using linear mixed effects modeling and accounting for the ARIMA structure of PRx, one can estimate PRx using noninvasive TCD-based indices. We have described our first attempts at such modeling and PRx estimation, establishing the strong link between two aspects of cerebral autoregulation: measures of cerebral blood flow and those of pulsatile cerebral blood

The population benefit of radiotherapy for gynaecological cancer: Local control and survival estimates.

PubMed

Hanna, Timothy P; Delaney, Geoffrey P; Barton, Michael B

2016-09-01

The population benefit of radiotherapy for gynaecological cancer (GC) if evidence-based guidelines were routinely followed is not known. This study's aim was to address this. Decision trees were utilised to estimate benefit. Radiotherapy alone (RT) benefit was the absolute proportional benefit of radiotherapy over no radiotherapy for radical indications, and over surgery alone for adjuvant indications. Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) benefit was the absolute incremental benefit of concurrent chemotherapy and RT over RT alone. Citation databases were systematically queried for the highest level of evidence defining 5-year Local Control (LC), and 2-year and 5-year Overall Survival (OS) benefit. Meta-analysis was performed if there were multiple sources of the same evidence level. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Guidelines supported 22 radiotherapy indications, of which 8 were for CRT. 21% of all GC had an adjuvant or curative radiotherapy indication. The absolute estimated population-based 5-year LC and OS benefits of RT, if all patients were treated according to guidelines, were: endometrial cancer LC 5.7% (95% CI (3.5%,8.2%)), OS 2.3% (1.2%,3.4%), ovarian cancer (nil), vulval cancer LC 10.0% (1.6%,18.2%), OS 8.5% (0.5%,15.9%). Combined with prior estimates for cervical cancer, RT benefits for all GC were LC 9.0% (7.8%,10.3%), OS 4.6% (3.8%,5.4%). The incremental benefit of CRT for all GC was LC 0.7% (0.4%,0.9%), OS 0.5% (0.2%,0.8%). Benefits were distinct from the contribution of other modalities. The model was robust in sensitivity analysis. Most radiotherapy benefit was irreplaceable by other modalities. Radiotherapy provides important and irreplaceable LC and OS benefits for GC when optimally utilised. The population model provided a robust means for estimating this benefit. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of Suicide Attempt in Poststroke Patients: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Harnod, Tomor; Lin, Cheng-Li; Kao, Chia-Hung

2018-01-10

This nationwide population-based cohort study evaluated the risk of and risk factors for suicide attempt in poststroke patients in Taiwan. The poststroke and nonstroke cohorts consisted of 713 690 patients and 1 426 009 controls, respectively. Adults (aged >18 years) who received new stroke diagnoses according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM ; codes 430-438) between 2000 and 2011 were included in the poststroke cohort. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratio for suicide attempt ( ICD-9-CM codes E950-E959) after adjustment for age, sex, monthly income, urbanization level, occupation category, and various comorbidities. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to measure the cumulative incidence of suicide attempt, and the Fine and Gray method was used as a competing event when estimating death subhazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals between groups. The cumulative incidence of suicide attempt was higher in the poststroke cohort, and the adjusted hazard ratio of suicide attempt was 2.20 (95% confidence interval, 2.04-2.37) compared with that of the controls. The leading risk factors for poststroke suicide attempt were earning low monthly income (<660 US dollars), living in less urbanized regions, doing manual labor, and having a stroke before age 50 years. The attempted suicide risk did not differ significantly between male and female patients in this study. These results convey crucial information to clinicians and governments for preventing suicide attempt in poststroke patients in Taiwan and other Asian countries. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Are rapid population estimates accurate? A field trial of two different assessment methods.

PubMed

Grais, Rebecca F; Coulombier, Denis; Ampuero, Julia; Lucas, Marcelino E S; Barretto, Avertino T; Jacquier, Guy; Diaz, Francisco; Balandine, Serge; Mahoudeau, Claude; Brown, Vincent

2006-09-01

Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning.

A Method to Estimate the Size and Characteristics of HIV-positive Populations Using an Individual-based Stochastic Simulation Model.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Fumiyo; van Sighem, Ard; Thiebaut, Rodolphe; Smith, Colette; Ratmann, Oliver; Cambiano, Valentina; Albert, Jan; Amato-Gauci, Andrew; Bezemer, Daniela; Campbell, Colin; Commenges, Daniel; Donoghoe, Martin; Ford, Deborah; Kouyos, Roger; Lodwick, Rebecca; Lundgren, Jens; Pantazis, Nikos; Pharris, Anastasia; Quinten, Chantal; Thorne, Claire; Touloumi, Giota; Delpech, Valerie; Phillips, Andrew

2016-03-01

It is important not only to collect epidemiologic data on HIV but to also fully utilize such information to understand the epidemic over time and to help inform and monitor the impact of policies and interventions. We describe and apply a novel method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations. The method was applied to data on men who have sex with men living in the UK and to a pseudo dataset to assess performance for different data availability. The individual-based simulation model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation-based approach. In 2013, 48,310 (90% plausibility range: 39,900-45,560) men who have sex with men were estimated to be living with HIV in the UK, of whom 10,400 (6,160-17,350) were undiagnosed. There were an estimated 3,210 (1,730-5,350) infections per year on average between 2010 and 2013. Sixty-two percent of the total HIV-positive population are thought to have viral load <500 copies/ml. In the pseudo-epidemic example, HIV estimates have narrower plausibility ranges and are closer to the true number, the greater the data availability to calibrate the model. We demonstrate that our method can be applied to settings with less data, however plausibility ranges for estimates will be wider to reflect greater uncertainty of the data used to fit the model.

Influenza vaccination coverage estimates in the fee-for service Medicare beneficiary population 2006 - 2016: Using population-based administrative data to support a geographic based near real-time tool.

PubMed

Shen, Angela K; Warnock, Rob; Brereton, Stephaeno; McKean, Stephen; Wernecke, Michael; Chu, Steve; Kelman, Jeffrey A

2018-04-11

Older adults are at great risk of developing serious complications from seasonal influenza. We explore vaccination coverage estimates in the Medicare population through the use of administrative claims data and describe a tool designed to help shape outreach efforts and inform strategies to help raise influenza vaccination rates. This interactive mapping tool uses claims data to compare vaccination levels between geographic (i.e., state, county, zip code) and demographic (i.e., race, age) groups at different points in a season. Trends can also be compared across seasons. Utilization of this tool can assist key actors interested in prevention - medical groups, health plans, hospitals, and state and local public health authorities - in supporting strategies for reaching pools of unvaccinated beneficiaries where general national population estimates of coverage are less informative. Implementing evidence-based tools can be used to address persistent racial and ethnic disparities and prevent a substantial number of influenza cases and hospitalizations.

Population-based incidence of exudative age-related macular degeneration and ranibizumab treatment load.

PubMed

Geirsdottir, Asbjorg; Jonsson, Oskar; Thorisdottir, Sigridur; Helgadottir, Gudleif; Jonasson, Fridbert; Stefansson, Einar; Sigurdsson, Haraldur

2012-03-01

The use of intravitreal vascular endothelial growth factor antibodies for exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) has stressed ophthalmology services and drug budgets throughout the world. The authors study the population-based incidence of exudative AMD in Iceland and the use of intravitreal ranibizumab in a defined population. This is a prospective study of 439 consecutive patients aged 60 years and older with exudative AMD starting intravitreal ranibizumab for exudative AMD in Iceland from March 2007 to December 2009. All patients initially received three consecutive ranibizumab injections, with regular follow-up visits and re-treatment as needed. In total, 517 eyes from 439 patients received treatment for exudative AMD (mean age 79 years). The annual incidence of exudative AMD in the population 60 years and older is 0.29%. The incidence increased with advancing age, double for patients 85 years and older compared with those 75-79 years. Approximately 2400 ranibizumab injections per 100,000 persons aged 60 years and older were given each year for exudative AMD. These data allow an estimation of the incidence of exudative AMD in a Caucasian population and the treatment load with ranibizumab, which may help plan anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment programmes and estimate costs.

Robust estimation of mammographic breast density: a patient-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heese, Harald S.; Erhard, Klaus; Gooßen, Andre; Bulow, Thomas

2012-02-01

Breast density has become an established risk indicator for developing breast cancer. Current clinical practice reflects this by grading mammograms patient-wise as entirely fat, scattered fibroglandular, heterogeneously dense, or extremely dense based on visual perception. Existing (semi-) automated methods work on a per-image basis and mimic clinical practice by calculating an area fraction of fibroglandular tissue (mammographic percent density). We suggest a method that follows clinical practice more strictly by segmenting the fibroglandular tissue portion directly from the joint data of all four available mammographic views (cranio-caudal and medio-lateral oblique, left and right), and by subsequently calculating a consistently patient-based mammographic percent density estimate. In particular, each mammographic view is first processed separately to determine a region of interest (ROI) for segmentation into fibroglandular and adipose tissue. ROI determination includes breast outline detection via edge-based methods, peripheral tissue suppression via geometric breast height modeling, and - for medio-lateral oblique views only - pectoral muscle outline detection based on optimizing a three-parameter analytic curve with respect to local appearance. Intensity harmonization based on separately acquired calibration data is performed with respect to compression height and tube voltage to facilitate joint segmentation of available mammographic views. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) on the joint histogram data with a posteriori calibration guided plausibility correction is finally employed for tissue separation. The proposed method was tested on patient data from 82 subjects. Results show excellent correlation (r = 0.86) to radiologist's grading with deviations ranging between -28%, (q = 0.025) and +16%, (q = 0.975).

Estimating population size for Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) with spatial capture-recapture models based on genotypes from one field sample

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollet, Pierre; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Royle, Andy

2015-01-01

We conducted a survey of an endangered and cryptic forest grouse, the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, based on droppings collected on two sampling occasions in eight forest fragments in central Switzerland in early spring 2009. We used genetic analyses to sex and individually identify birds. We estimated sex-dependent detection probabilities and population size using a modern spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model for the data from pooled surveys. A total of 127 capercaillie genotypes were identified (77 males, 46 females, and 4 of unknown sex). The SCR model yielded atotal population size estimate (posterior mean) of 137.3 capercaillies (posterior sd 4.2, 95% CRI 130–147). The observed sex ratio was skewed towards males (0.63). The posterior mean of the sex ratio under the SCR model was 0.58 (posterior sd 0.02, 95% CRI 0.54–0.61), suggesting a male-biased sex ratio in our study area. A subsampling simulation study indicated that a reduced sampling effort representing 75% of the actual detections would still yield practically acceptable estimates of total size and sex ratio in our population. Hence, field work and financial effort could be reduced without compromising accuracy when the SCR model is used to estimate key population parameters of cryptic species.

Patient population with multiple myeloma and transitions across different lines of therapy in the USA: an epidemiologic model.

PubMed

Cid Ruzafa, Javier; Merinopoulou, Evie; Baggaley, Rebecca F; Leighton, Pamela; Werther, Winifred; Felici, Diana; Cox, Andrew

2016-08-01

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a progressive, malignant neoplasia with a worldwide, age-standardized annual incidence of 1.5 per 100 000 individuals and 5-year prevalence around 230 000 patients. Main favorable prognostic factors are younger age, low/standard cytogenetic risk, and undergoing stem cell transplantation. Our aim was to estimate the size of the patient population with MM eligible to receive a new MM therapy at different lines of therapy in the USA. We constructed a compartmental, differential equation model representing the flow of MM patients from diagnosis to death, via two possible treatment pathways and distinguished in four groups based on prognostic factors. Parameters were obtained from published references, available statistics, and assumptions. The model was used to estimate number of diagnosed MM patients and number of patient transitions from one line of therapy to the next over 1 year. Model output included 95% credible intervals from probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The base-case estimates were 80 219 patients living with MM, including 70 375 on treatment, 780 symptomatic untreated patients, and 9064 asymptomatic untreated patients. Over a 1-year period, the number of MM patients on treatment line 1 was estimated at 23 629 (credible intervals 22 236-25 029), and the number of transitions from treatment line 1 to treatment line 2 was estimated at 14 423. The size of the patient population with MM on different lines of therapy and in patient subgroups of interest estimated from this epidemiologic model can be used to assess the number of patients who could benefit from new MM therapies and their corresponding budgetary impact. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Koh, Dong-Hee; Bhatti, Parveen; Coble, Joseph B.; Stewart, Patricia A; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Locke, Sarah J.; Portengen, Lutzen; Yang, Gong; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel; Friesen, Melissa C.

2012-01-01

The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume (n=20,084) and lead dust (n=5,383) measurements collected over four decades in Shanghai, China. Using mixed-effect models, we calibrated intensity JEM ratings to the measurements using fixed-effects terms for year and JEM rating. We developed job/industry-specific estimates from the random-effects terms for job and industry. The model estimates were applied to subjects’ jobs when the JEM probability rating was high for either job or industry; remaining jobs were considered unexposed. The models predicted that exposure increased monotonically with JEM intensity rating and decreased 20–50-fold over time. The cumulative calibrated JEM estimates and job/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (Pearson correlation=0.79–0.84). Overall, 5% of the person-years and 8% of the women were exposed to lead fume; 2% of the person-years and 4% of the women were exposed to lead dust. The most common lead-exposed jobs were manufacturing electronic equipment. These historical lead estimates should enhance our ability to detect associations between lead exposure and cancer risk in future epidemiologic analyses. PMID:22910004

Estimating risk factors for HIV infection among women in Mozambique using population-based survey data.

PubMed

Dias, Sara S; Mbofana, Francisco; Cassy, Sheyla R; Dias, Sónia; Augusto, Gonçalo F; Agadjanian, Victor; Martins, Maria R O

2018-03-01

The use of population-based survey data together with sound statistical methods can enhance better estimation of HIV risk factors and explain variations across subgroups of the population. The distribution and determinants of HIV infection in populations must be taken into consideration. We analysed data from the HIV Prevalence and Behaviour Survey in Mozambique aiming to find risk factors associated with HIV infection among Mozambican women. The paper provides a complex survey logistic regression model to explain the variation in HIV seropositivity using demographic, socio-economic and behavioural factors. Results show that women aged 25-29 years, living in female-headed households, living in richer households and those widowed, divorced or not living with a partner have higher odds of being HIV-positive. Findings from our study provide a unique and integrated perspective on risk factors for being HIV-positive among Mozambican women and could support the implementation of programmes aiming to reduce HIV infection in Mozambique.

Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms--prevalence estimates in different age groups: a population-based study.

PubMed

Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V; Søndergaard, Jens; Jarbøl, Dorte E

2015-02-01

To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. Web-based cross-sectional survey study. Nationwide in Denmark. A random sample of 51,090 women aged 20 years or above from the general population. An internet-based questionnaire study regarding the prevalence estimates of symptom experiences. A total of 18 symptoms of cervical, endometrial and ovarian cancer were selected through an extensive literature search, which included national and international guidelines. Prevalence estimates of self-reported experience of gynecological alarm symptoms within the preceding 4 weeks. A total of 26,466 women (54.5%) participated in the study. Some 80.3% had experienced at least one of the alarm symptoms within the preceding 4 weeks, and the median number of experienced symptoms was 2 (interquartile range 1-4). The most common symptoms were tiredness (53.0%) and abdominal bloating (36.7%); postmenopausal bleeding (2.3%) and involuntary weight loss (2.8%) were least frequent. Most of the symptoms were more prevalent among younger women, whereas only dyspnea and increased urgency of urination were more frequent among older women. Among younger women, multiple abdominal symptoms often occurred simultaneously and frequently in combination with pelvic pain, whereas older women were more likely to report single symptoms. Gynecological alarm symptoms are frequent in the general population, mostly among younger women. Older women reported fewer symptoms, and these often appeared as single symptoms. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae using the proximal femur.

PubMed

Colman, K L; Janssen, M C L; Stull, K E; van Rijn, R R; Oostra, R J; de Boer, H H; van der Merwe, A E

2018-05-01

Sex estimation techniques are frequently applied in forensic anthropological analyses of unidentified human skeletal remains. While morphological sex estimation methods are able to endure population differences, the classification accuracy of metric sex estimation methods are population-specific. No metric sex estimation method currently exists for the Dutch population. The purpose of this study is to create Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae by means of osteometric analyses of the proximal femur. Since the Netherlands lacks a representative contemporary skeletal reference population, 2D plane reconstructions, derived from clinical computed tomography (CT) data, were used as an alternative source for a representative reference sample. The first part of this study assesses the intra- and inter-observer error, or reliability, of twelve measurements of the proximal femur. The technical error of measurement (TEM) and relative TEM (%TEM) were calculated using 26 dry adult femora. In addition, the agreement, or accuracy, between the dry bone and CT-based measurements was determined by percent agreement. Only reliable and accurate measurements were retained for the logistic regression sex estimation formulae; a training set (n=86) was used to create the models while an independent testing set (n=28) was used to validate the models. Due to high levels of multicollinearity, only single variable models were created. Cross-validated classification accuracies ranged from 86% to 92%. The high cross-validated classification accuracies indicate that the developed formulae can contribute to the biological profile and specifically in sex estimation of unidentified human skeletal remains in the Netherlands. Furthermore, the results indicate that clinical CT data can be a valuable alternative source of data when representative skeletal collections are unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in pediatric chest CT: a study in 30 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2010-04-01

Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dosereporting system that provides radiation dose and cancer risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. Recently, we reported a method for estimating patientspecific dose from pediatric chest CT. The purpose of this study is to extend that effort to patient-specific risk estimation and to a population of pediatric CT patients. Our study included thirty pediatric CT patients (16 males and 14 females; 0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created based on the patients' clinical CT data. Using a validated Monte Carlo program, organ dose received by the thirty patients from a chest scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT, 120 kVp, 1.375 pitch, 40-mm collimation, pediatric body scan field-of-view) was simulated and used to estimate patient-specific effective dose. Risks of cancer incidence were calculated for radiosensitive organs using gender-, age-, and tissue-specific risk coefficients and were used to derive patientspecific effective risk. The thirty patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-10.4 mSv/100 mAs and normalized effective risk of 0.5-5.8 cases/1000 exposed persons/100 mAs. Normalized lung dose and risk of lung cancer correlated strongly with average chest diameter (correlation coefficient: r = -0.98 to -0.99). Normalized effective risk also correlated strongly with average chest diameter (r = -0.97 to -0.98). These strong correlations can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk prior to or after an imaging study to potentially guide healthcare providers in justifying CT examinations and to guide individualized protocol design and optimization.

Iothalamate versus estimated GFR in a Hispanic-dominant pediatric renal transplant population.

PubMed

Papez, Karen E; Barletta, Gina-Marie; Hsieh, Stephanie; Joseph, Mark; Morgenstern, Bruce Z

2013-12-01

Accurate knowledge of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential to the practice of nephrology. Routine surveillance of GFR is most commonly executed using estimated GFR (eGFR) calculations, most often from serum creatinine measurements. However, cystatin C-based equations have demonstrated earlier sensitivity to decline in renal function. The literature regarding eGFR from cystatin C has few references that include transplant recipients. Additionally, for most of the published eGFR equations, patients of Hispanic ethnicity have not been enrolled in sufficient numbers. The applicability of several eGFR equations to the pediatric kidney transplant population at our center were compared in the context of determining whether Hispanic ethnicity was associated with equation performance. Updated Schwartz, CKiD, and Zappitelli eGFR estimation equations demonstrated the highest correlations. The authors recommend further prospective investigations to validate and identify factors contributing to these findings.

Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Hugh S.; Ruth, Toni K.; Gude, Justin A.; Choate, David; DeSimone, Rich; Hebblewhite, Mark; Matchett, Marc R.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Murphy, Kerry; Williams, Jim

2015-01-01

To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988–2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013–2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to

A review of the population estimation approach of the North American landbird conservation plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Howe, Frank P.; James, Frances C.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Reed, Eric T.; Sauer, John R.; Thompson, Frank R.

2006-01-01

As part of their development of a continental plan for monitoring landbirds (Rich et al. 2004), Partners in Flight (PIF) applied a new method to make preliminary estimates of population size for all 448 species of landbirds present in the continental United States and Canada (Table 1). Estimation of the global population size of North American landbirds was intended to (1) identify the degree of vulnerability of each species, (2) provide estimates of the current population size for each species, and (3) provide a starting point for estimating population sizes in states, provinces, territories, and Bird Conservation Regions (Rich et al. 2004). A method proposed by Rosenberg and Blancher (2005) was used to derive population estimates from available survey data. To enhance the credibility of these estimates, PIF organized a review of the methodology used to estimate North American landbird population sizes. A planning committee selected members from the ornithological and biometrical communities (hereafter “the panel”), with the aim of selecting individuals from academia, state natural-resource agencies, and the U.S. and Canadian federal governments, including the Canadian Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.The panel addressed three questions: (1) Were the methods of population estimation proposed by PIF reasonable? (2) What actions could be taken to improve the data or analyses on which the PIF population estimates were based? and (3) How should the PIF population estimates be interpreted?

Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

PubMed

Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

2011-06-01

Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population

Sex- and Age-Adjusted Population Analysis of Prevalence Estimates for Hidradenitis Suppurativa in the United States.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Kirby, Joslyn S; Lavian, Jonathan; Lin, Gloria; Strunk, Andrew

2017-08-01

The true prevalence of hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is unknown. To establish standardized overall and group-specific prevalence estimates for HS in the United States. This retrospective analysis included a demographically heterogeneous population-based sample of more than 48 million unique patients across all US census regions. As of October 27, 2016, a total of 47 690 patients with HS were identified using electronic health record data. Standardized overall point prevalence for HS and sex-, age-, and race-specific prevalence estimates of HS in the general US population. Of the 47 690 patients with HS (26.2% men and 73.8% women), the overall HS prevalence in the US population sample was 0.10%, or 98 per 100 000 persons (95% CI, 97-99 per 100 000 persons). The adjusted prevalence in women was 137 per 100 000 (95% CI, 136-139 per 100 000), more than twice that of men (58 per 100 000; 95% CI, 57-59 per 100 000; P < .001). The prevalence of HS was highest among patients aged 30 to 39 years (172 per 100 000; 95% CI, 169-275 per 100 000) compared with all other age groups (range, 15-150 per 100 000; P < .001). Adjusted HS prevalences among African American (296 per 100 000; 95% CI, 291-300 per 100 000) and biracial (218 per 100 000; 95% CI, 202-235 per 100 000) patients were more than 3-fold and 2-fold greater, respectively, than that among white patients (95 per 100 000; 95% CI, 94-96 per 100 000; P < .001). Hidradenitis suppurativa is an uncommon, but not rare, disease in the United States that disproportionately affects female patients, young adults, and African American and biracial patients.

Estimation of the probability of exposure to metalworking fluids in a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

Park, Dong-Uk; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Schwenn, Molly; Karagas, Margaret R.; Armenti, Karla R.; Johnson, Alison; Silverman, Debra T; Stewart, Patricia A

2014-01-01

We describe here an approach for estimating the probability that study subjects were exposed to metalworking fluids (MWFs) in a population-based case-control study of bladder cancer. Study subject reports on the frequency of machining and use of specific MWFs (straight, soluble, and synthetic/semi-synthetic) were used to estimate exposure probability when available. Those reports also were used to develop estimates for job groups, which were then applied to jobs without MWF reports. Estimates using both cases and controls and controls only were developed. The prevalence of machining varied substantially across job groups (10-90%), with the greatest percentage of jobs that machined being reported by machinists and tool and die workers. Reports of straight and soluble MWF use were fairly consistent across job groups (generally, 50-70%). Synthetic MWF use was lower (13-45%). There was little difference in reports by cases and controls vs. controls only. Approximately, 1% of the entire study population was assessed as definitely exposed to straight or soluble fluids in contrast to 0.2% definitely exposed to synthetic/semi-synthetics. A comparison between the reported use of the MWFs and the US production levels by decade found high correlations (r generally >0.7). Overall, the method described here is likely to have provided a systematic and reliable ranking that better reflects the variability of exposure to three types of MWFs than approaches applied in the past. PMID:25256317

Segmenting lung fields in serial chest radiographs using both population-based and patient-specific shape statistics.

PubMed

Shi, Y; Qi, F; Xue, Z; Chen, L; Ito, K; Matsuo, H; Shen, D

2008-04-01

This paper presents a new deformable model using both population-based and patient-specific shape statistics to segment lung fields from serial chest radiographs. There are two novelties in the proposed deformable model. First, a modified scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) local descriptor, which is more distinctive than the general intensity and gradient features, is used to characterize the image features in the vicinity of each pixel. Second, the deformable contour is constrained by both population-based and patient-specific shape statistics, and it yields more robust and accurate segmentation of lung fields for serial chest radiographs. In particular, for segmenting the initial time-point images, the population-based shape statistics is used to constrain the deformable contour; as more subsequent images of the same patient are acquired, the patient-specific shape statistics online collected from the previous segmentation results gradually takes more roles. Thus, this patient-specific shape statistics is updated each time when a new segmentation result is obtained, and it is further used to refine the segmentation results of all the available time-point images. Experimental results show that the proposed method is more robust and accurate than other active shape models in segmenting the lung fields from serial chest radiographs.

Differential estimates of southern flying squirrel (Glaucomys volans) population structure based on capture method

Treesearch

Kevin S. Laves; Susan C. Loeb

2005-01-01

It is commonly assumed that population estimates derived from trapping small mammals are accurate and unbiased or that estimates derived from different capture methods are comparable. We captured southern flying squirrels (Glaucmrtys volam) using two methods to study their effect on red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides bumah) reproductive success. Southern flying...

Change-in-ratio estimators for populations with more than two subclasses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1991-01-01

Change-in-ratio methods have been developed to estimate the size of populations with two or three population subclasses. Most of these methods require the often unreasonable assumption of equal sampling probabilities for individuals in all subclasses. This paper presents new models based on the weaker assumption that ratios of sampling probabilities are constant over time for populations with three or more subclasses. Estimation under these models requires that a value be assumed for one of these ratios when there are two samples. Explicit expressions are given for the maximum likelihood estimators under models for two samples with three or more subclasses and for three samples with two subclasses. A numerical method using readily available statistical software is described for obtaining the estimators and their standard errors under all of the models. Likelihood ratio tests that can be used in model selection are discussed. Emphasis is on the two-sample, three-subclass models for which Monte-Carlo simulation results and an illustrative example are presented.

Trends and predictors of outcomes after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma: A nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chiu, C-C; Wang, J-J; Chen, Y-S; Chen, J-J; Tsai, T-C; Lai, C-C; Sun, D-P; Shi, H-Y

2015-09-01

Despite the huge and growing global burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), high-quality population-based studies of HCC prevalence and outcomes are scarce. To analyze trends and predictors of hospital resource utilization and mortality rates in a population of patients who had received HCC surgery. This population-based patient cohort study retrospectively analyzed 23,107 patients who had received surgical treatment for HCC from 1998 to 2009. The prevalence rate of surgical treatment in HCC patients significantly increased by 167.4% from 4.857 per 100,000 persons in 1998 to 12.989 per 100,000 persons in 2009 (P < 0.001). Age, gender, Deyo-Charlson co-morbidity index score, hospital volume, surgeon volume, digestive system disease, hepatitis type and liver cirrhosis were significantly associated with HCC surgical outcomes (P < 0.05). Over the 12-year period analyzed, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 9.4% whereas mean length of stay (LOS) decreased 25.3%. The estimated mean overall survival time after HCC surgery was 40.9 months (SD 1.2 months), and the overall in-hospital 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 97.2%, 79.9%, 61.1%, and 54.6%, respectively. These population-based data reveal that the prevalence of HCC has increased, especially in older patients. Additionally, hospital treatment costs for HCC have increased despite decreases in LOS. These analytical results should be applicable to most countries with relatively small populations. Additionally, healthcare providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[DOPPS estimate of patient life years attributable to modifiable hemodialysis practices in France].

PubMed

Canaud, Bernard; Combe, Christian; Bragg-Gresham, Jennifer L; Eichleay, Margaret A; Pisoni, Ronald L; Port, Friedrich K

2008-07-01

In this study, we used a prevalent cross-sectional sample of French hemodialysis patients from Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) 2 (2002-2004) to determine the percentage of patients whose values failed to meet targets in six different areas of hemodialysis practice (dialysis dose, anemia, serum phosphorus (PO(4)), serum calcium (Ca), serum albumin and catheter use for vascular access). Cox survival models, with adjustments for patient characteristics, were used for these analyses to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HR). Based on the mortality HR, the fraction of patients outside each target and the total HD population in France, we estimated the number of patient life years that could potentially be gained if every chronic, in-center hemodialysis patient in France who is currently outside of the specified target was able to achieve it. The proportion of patients failing to meet one of the six practice targets in France varied from 15% (dialysis dose) to 75% (albumin) while the percentage of patients complying with all six targets was restricted to 1.2%. The relative risk of mortality (RR) associated with being outside these targets varied from 1.12 to 1.46. Based on these two measures the life-years survival was estimated. The projected number of patients and life years potentially gained from adherence to the six targets was estimated close to 10,600 years-patient. In conclusion, this study suggests large opportunities to improve hemodialysis patient care in France still exist. Compliance with two major practice targets, such as albumin and restriction of catheter use will save highly significant life years of hemodialysis patient. Implementing and strict adherence to national and international guidelines should serve as a basic inspiration for continual improvement of hemodialysis patient care.

Estimation of stream salamander (Plethodontidae, Desmognathinae and Plethodontinae) populations in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jung, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sauer, J.R.; Addison, C.; Rau, R.D.; Shirk, J.L.; Whissel, J.C.

2005-01-01

Stream salamanders in the family Plethodontidae constitute a large biomass in and near headwater streams in the eastern United States and are promising indicators of stream ecosystem health. Many studies of stream salamanders have relied on population indices based on counts rather than population estimates based on techniques such as capture-recapture and removal. Application of estimation procedures allows the calculation of detection probabilities (the proportion of total animals present that are detected during a survey) and their associated sampling error, and may be essential for determining salamander population sizes and trends. In 1999, we conducted capture-recapture and removal population estimation methods for Desmognathus salamanders at six streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Removal sampling appeared more efficient and detection probabilities from removal data were higher than those from capture-recapture. During 2001-2004, we used removal estimation at eight streams in the park to assess the usefulness of this technique for long-term monitoring of stream salamanders. Removal detection probabilities ranged from 0.39 to 0.96 for Desmognathus, 0.27 to 0.89 for Eurycea and 0.27 to 0.75 for northern spring (Gyrinophilus porphyriticus) and northern red (Pseudotriton ruber) salamanders across stream transects. Detection probabilities did not differ across years for Desmognathus and Eurycea, but did differ among streams for Desmognathus. Population estimates of Desmognathus decreased between 2001-2002 and 2003-2004 which may be related to changes in stream flow conditions. Removal-based procedures may be a feasible approach for population estimation of salamanders, but field methods should be designed to meet the assumptions of the sampling procedures. New approaches to estimating stream salamander populations are discussed.

Drug prescription patterns in patients with Addison's disease: a Swedish population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Björnsdottir, Sigridur; Sundström, Anders; Ludvigsson, Jonas F; Blomqvist, Paul; Kämpe, Olle; Bensing, Sophie

2013-05-01

There are no published data on drug prescription in patients with Addison's disease (AD). Our objective was to describe the drug prescription patterns in Swedish AD patients before and after diagnosis compared with population controls. We conducted a population-based cohort study in Sweden. Through the Swedish National Patient Register and the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register, we identified 1305 patients with both a diagnosis of AD and on combination treatment with hydrocortisone/cortisone acetate and fludrocortisone. Direct evidence of the AD diagnosis from patient charts was not available. We identified 11 996 matched controls by the Register of Population. We determined the ratio of observed to expected number of patients treated with prescribed drugs. Overall, Swedish AD patients received more prescribed drugs than controls, and 59.3% of the AD patients had medications indicating concomitant autoimmune disease. Interestingly, both before and after the diagnosis of AD, patients used more gastrointestinal medications, antianemic preparations, lipid-modifying agents, antibiotics for systemic use, hypnotics and sedatives, and drugs for obstructive airway disease (all P values < .05). Notably, an increased prescription of several antihypertensive drugs and high-ceiling diuretics was observed after the diagnosis of AD. Gastrointestinal symptoms and anemia, especially in conjunction with autoimmune disorders, should alert the physician about the possibility of AD. The higher use of drugs for cardiovascular disorders after diagnosis in patients with AD raises concerns about the replacement therapy.

Accuracy of height estimation and tidal volume setting using anthropometric formulas in an ICU Caucasian population.

PubMed

L'her, Erwan; Martin-Babau, Jérôme; Lellouche, François

2016-12-01

Knowledge of patients' height is essential for daily practice in the intensive care unit. However, actual height measurements are unavailable on a daily routine in the ICU and measured height in the supine position and/or visual estimates may lack consistency. Clinicians do need simple and rapid methods to estimate the patients' height, especially in short height and/or obese patients. The objectives of the study were to evaluate several anthropometric formulas for height estimation on healthy volunteers and to test whether several of these estimates will help tidal volume setting in ICU patients. This was a prospective, observational study in a medical intensive care unit of a university hospital. During the first phase of the study, eight limb measurements were performed on 60 healthy volunteers and 18 height estimation formulas were tested. During the second phase, four height estimates were performed on 60 consecutive ICU patients under mechanical ventilation. In the 60 healthy volunteers, actual height was well correlated with the gold standard, measured height in the erect position. Correlation was low between actual and calculated height, using the hand's length and width, the index, or the foot equations. The Chumlea method and its simplified version, performed in the supine position, provided adequate estimates. In the 60 ICU patients, calculated height using the simplified Chumlea method was well correlated with measured height (r = 0.78; ∂ < 1 %). Ulna and tibia estimates also provided valuable estimates. All these height estimates allowed calculating IBW or PBW that were significantly different from the patients' actual weight on admission. In most cases, tidal volume set according to these estimates was lower than what would have been set using the actual weight. When actual height is unavailable in ICU patients undergoing mechanical ventilation, alternative anthropometric methods to obtain patient's height based on lower leg and on forearm

A cautionary note on Bayesian estimation of population size by removal sampling with diffuse priors.

PubMed

Bord, Séverine; Bioche, Christèle; Druilhet, Pierre

2018-05-01

We consider the problem of estimating a population size by removal sampling when the sampling rate is unknown. Bayesian methods are now widespread and allow to include prior knowledge in the analysis. However, we show that Bayes estimates based on default improper priors lead to improper posteriors or infinite estimates. Similarly, weakly informative priors give unstable estimators that are sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters. By examining the likelihood, we show that population size estimates can be stabilized by penalizing small values of the sampling rate or large value of the population size. Based on theoretical results and simulation studies, we propose some recommendations on the choice of the prior. Then, we applied our results to real datasets. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

PubMed Central

Wang, Shixin; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Yi; Liu, Wenliang; Lin, Chenxi

2016-01-01

Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR) images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3). Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI) yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex) in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI) outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT) in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE) of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable. PMID:27775670

Acute cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with hyperthyroidism: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Dekkers, Olaf M; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Sørensen, Henrik Toft; Jørgensen, Jens Otto L

2017-01-01

Several studies have shown an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in hyperthyroidism, but most studies have been too small to address the effect of hyperthyroidism on individual cardiovascular endpoints. Our main aim was to assess the association among hyperthyroidism, acute cardiovascular events and mortality. It is a nationwide population-based cohort study. Data were obtained from the Danish Civil Registration System and the Danish National Patient Registry, which covers all Danish hospitals. We compared the rate of all-cause mortality as well as venous thromboembolism (VTE), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), ischemic and non-ischemic stroke, arterial embolism, atrial fibrillation (AF) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the two cohorts. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated. The study included 85 856 hyperthyroid patients and 847 057 matched population-based controls. Mean follow-up time was 9.2 years. The HR for mortality was highest in the first 3 months after diagnosis of hyperthyroidism: 4.62, 95% CI: 4.40-4.85, and remained elevated during long-term follow-up (>3 years) (HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.33-1.37). The risk for all examined cardiovascular events was increased, with the highest risk in the first 3 months after hyperthyroidism diagnosis. The 3-month post-diagnosis risk was highest for atrial fibrillation (HR: 7.32, 95% CI: 6.58-8.14) and arterial embolism (HR: 6.08, 95% CI: 4.30-8.61), but the risks of VTE, AMI, ischemic and non-ischemic stroke and PCI were increased also 2- to 3-fold. We found an increased risk for all-cause mortality and acute cardiovascular events in patients with hyperthyroidism. © 2017 European Society of Endocrinology.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Incorporating GIS building data and census housing statistics for sub-block-level population estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, S.-S.; Wang, L.; Qiu, X.

2008-01-01

This article presents a deterministic model for sub-block-level population estimation based on the total building volumes derived from geographic information system (GIS) building data and three census block-level housing statistics. To assess the model, we generated artificial blocks by aggregating census block areas and calculating the respective housing statistics. We then applied the model to estimate populations for sub-artificial-block areas and assessed the estimates with census populations of the areas. Our analyses indicate that the average percent error of population estimation for sub-artificial-block areas is comparable to those for sub-census-block areas of the same size relative to associated blocks. The smaller the sub-block-level areas, the higher the population estimation errors. For example, the average percent error for residential areas is approximately 0.11 percent for 100 percent block areas and 35 percent for 5 percent block areas.

Performance comparison of first-order conditional estimation with interaction and Bayesian estimation methods for estimating the population parameters and its distribution from data sets with a low number of subjects.

PubMed

Pradhan, Sudeep; Song, Byungjeong; Lee, Jaeyeon; Chae, Jung-Woo; Kim, Kyung Im; Back, Hyun-Moon; Han, Nayoung; Kwon, Kwang-Il; Yun, Hwi-Yeol

2017-12-01

Exploratory preclinical, as well as clinical trials, may involve a small number of patients, making it difficult to calculate and analyze the pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters, especially if the PK parameters show very high inter-individual variability (IIV). In this study, the performance of a classical first-order conditional estimation with interaction (FOCE-I) and expectation maximization (EM)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian (BAYES) estimation methods were compared for estimating the population parameters and its distribution from data sets having a low number of subjects. In this study, 100 data sets were simulated with eight sampling points for each subject and with six different levels of IIV (5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 50%, and 80%) in their PK parameter distribution. A stochastic simulation and estimation (SSE) study was performed to simultaneously simulate data sets and estimate the parameters using four different methods: FOCE-I only, BAYES(C) (FOCE-I and BAYES composite method), BAYES(F) (BAYES with all true initial parameters and fixed ω 2 ), and BAYES only. Relative root mean squared error (rRMSE) and relative estimation error (REE) were used to analyze the differences between true and estimated values. A case study was performed with a clinical data of theophylline available in NONMEM distribution media. NONMEM software assisted by Pirana, PsN, and Xpose was used to estimate population PK parameters, and R program was used to analyze and plot the results. The rRMSE and REE values of all parameter (fixed effect and random effect) estimates showed that all four methods performed equally at the lower IIV levels, while the FOCE-I method performed better than other EM-based methods at higher IIV levels (greater than 30%). In general, estimates of random-effect parameters showed significant bias and imprecision, irrespective of the estimation method used and the level of IIV. Similar performance of the estimation methods was observed with theophylline

A Population-based survey of risk for cancer in individuals diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy

PubMed Central

Abbott, Diana; Johnson, Nicholas E; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.

2018-01-01

Introduction The risk of cancer in patients diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy (DM) is reported for the homogeneous Utah population. Methods Clinical data accessed from the largest Utah healthcare providers have been record-linked to the Utah Population Database (UPDB), a population-based resource also linked to the Utah Cancer Registry. Relative risks were estimated for 36 cancers of different types in 281 DM patients. Results Testicular cancer (RR=10.74; 95% CI: 1.91, 38.79), endometrial cancer (6.98; 1.24, 25.22), and Non-Hodgkins lymphoma (4.25; 1.16, 12.43) were all observed at significant excess in DM patients. Discussion This study confirms an overall increased risk of cancer in DM. Individuals diagnosed with DM might benefit from risk counseling. PMID:27064430

Risk of cancer in patients with scleroderma: a population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Hill, C; Nguyen, A; Roder, D; Roberts-Thomson, P

2003-01-01

Background: Previous studies have suggested an increased risk of cancer among patients with scleroderma. Objective: To study a population based cohort of patients with scleroderma in South Australia. Methods: Subjects with scleroderma were identified from the South Australian Scleroderma Registry established in 1993. All subjects on the scleroderma registry were linked to the South Australian Cancer Registry to identify all cases of cancer until 31 December 2000. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer for subjects with scleroderma were determined using the age- and sex-specific rates for South Australia. Results: In 441 patients with scleroderma, 90 cases of cancer were identified, 47 of which developed after inclusion on the scleroderma registry. The SIRs for all cancers among these patients were significantly increased (SIR=1.99; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.46 to 2.65) compared with the cancer incidence rates for South Australia. The SIRs for lung cancer (SIR=5.9; 95% CI 3.05 to 10.31) were also significantly increased. The SIRs for all cancers among the subgroups with diffuse scleroderma (SIR=2.73; 95% CI 1.31 to 5.02) and limited scleroderma (SIR=1.85; 95% CI 1.23 to 2.68) were significantly increased. Conclusions: This population based cohort study provides evidence that scleroderma is associated with cancer, and in particular, lung cancer. In addition, both diffuse and limited forms of scleroderma are associated with a similarly increased risk of cancer. PMID:12860727

An alternative covariance estimator to investigate genetic heterogeneity in populations.

PubMed

Heslot, Nicolas; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2015-11-26

For genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using mixed models, covariance between individuals is estimated using molecular markers. Based on the properties of mixed models, using available molecular data for prediction is optimal if this covariance is known. Under this assumption, adding individuals to the analysis should never be detrimental. However, some empirical studies showed that increasing training population size decreased prediction accuracy. Recently, results from theoretical models indicated that even if marker density is high and the genetic architecture of traits is controlled by many loci with small additive effects, the covariance between individuals, which depends on relationships at causal loci, is not always well estimated by the whole-genome kinship. We propose an alternative covariance estimator named K-kernel, to account for potential genetic heterogeneity between populations that is characterized by a lack of genetic correlation, and to limit the information flow between a priori unknown populations in a trait-specific manner. This is similar to a multi-trait model and parameters are estimated by REML and, in extreme cases, it can allow for an independent genetic architecture between populations. As such, K-kernel is useful to study the problem of the design of training populations. K-kernel was compared to other covariance estimators or kernels to examine its fit to the data, cross-validated accuracy and suitability for GWAS on several datasets. It provides a significantly better fit to the data than the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and, in some cases it performs better than other kernels such as the Gaussian kernel, as shown by an empirical null distribution. In GWAS simulations, alternative kernels control type I errors as well as or better than the classical whole-genome kinship and increase statistical power. No or small gains were observed in cross-validated prediction accuracy. This alternative

Brain Metastases in Newly Diagnosed Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Martin, Allison M; Cagney, Daniel N; Catalano, Paul J; Warren, Laura E; Bellon, Jennifer R; Punglia, Rinaa S; Claus, Elizabeth B; Lee, Eudocia Q; Wen, Patrick Y; Haas-Kogan, Daphne A; Alexander, Brian M; Lin, Nancy U; Aizer, Ayal A

2017-08-01

Population-based estimates of the incidence and prognosis of brain metastases at diagnosis of breast cancer are lacking. To characterize the incidence proportions and median survivals of patients with breast cancer and brain metastases at the time of cancer diagnosis. Patients with breast cancer and brain metastases at the time of diagnosis were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute. Data were stratified by subtype, age, sex, and race. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression were performed to identify predictors of the presence of brain metastases at diagnosis and factors associated with all-cause mortality, respectively. For incidence, we identified a population-based sample of 238 726 adult patients diagnosed as having invasive breast cancer between 2010 and 2013 for whom the presence or absence of brain metastases at diagnosis was known. Patients diagnosed at autopsy or with an unknown follow-up were excluded from the survival analysis, leaving 231 684 patients in this cohort. Incidence proportion and median survival of patients with brain metastases and newly diagnosed breast cancer. We identified 968 patients with brain metastases at the time of diagnosis of breast cancer, representing 0.41% of the entire cohort and 7.56% of the subset with metastatic disease to any site. A total of 57 were 18 to 40 years old, 423 were 41 to 60 years old, 425 were 61-80 years old, and 63 were older than 80 years. Ten were male and 958 were female. Incidence proportions were highest among patients with hormone receptor (HR)-negative human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive (1.1% among entire cohort, 11.5% among patients with metastatic disease to any distant site) and triple-negative (0.7% among entire cohort, 11.4% among patients with metastatic disease to any distant site) subtypes. Median survival among the entire cohort with brain metastases was 10.0 months. Patients with HR

Population-based cost-offset estimation for the treatment of borderline personality disorder: projected costs in a currently running, ideal health system.

PubMed

Wunsch, Eva-Maria; Kliem, Sören; Kröger, Christoph

2014-09-01

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is considered one of the most expensive mental disorders in terms of direct and indirect costs. The aim of this study was to carry out a cost-offset estimation of disorder-specific psychotherapy for BPD at the population level. The study investigated whether the possible financial benefits of dialectical behavior therapy outweigh the therapy costs, assuming a currently running, ideal health system, and whether the estimated cost-benefit relationships change depending upon the number of patients willing to be treated. A formula was elaborated that allows the user to calculate cost-benefit relationships for various conservative or progressive scenarios, with different stages of individuals' willingness to be treated (10%-90%). The possible costs and benefits of BPD-related treatment were evaluated using a 12-month, prevalence-based approach. The annual costs for untreated BPD were 8.69 billion EUR annually. The cost-benefit relationship for the treatment remained constant at 1.52 for all scenarios, implying that for each EUR invested, 1.52 EUR can be gained within one year, independent of the willingness to be treated. Additional intangible benefits were calculated with the aid of Quality-Adjusted Life Years. Findings suggest that BPD-related treatment might well be efficient at the population level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D brain tumor segmentation in multimodal MR images based on learning population- and patient-specific feature sets.

PubMed

Jiang, Jun; Wu, Yao; Huang, Meiyan; Yang, Wei; Chen, Wufan; Feng, Qianjin

2013-01-01

Brain tumor segmentation is a clinical requirement for brain tumor diagnosis and radiotherapy planning. Automating this process is a challenging task due to the high diversity in appearance of tumor tissue among different patients and the ambiguous boundaries of lesions. In this paper, we propose a method to construct a graph by learning the population- and patient-specific feature sets of multimodal magnetic resonance (MR) images and by utilizing the graph-cut to achieve a final segmentation. The probabilities of each pixel that belongs to the foreground (tumor) and the background are estimated by global and custom classifiers that are trained through learning population- and patient-specific feature sets, respectively. The proposed method is evaluated using 23 glioma image sequences, and the segmentation results are compared with other approaches. The encouraging evaluation results obtained, i.e., DSC (84.5%), Jaccard (74.1%), sensitivity (87.2%), and specificity (83.1%), show that the proposed method can effectively make use of both population- and patient-specific information. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating chronic disease rates in Canada: which population-wide denominator to use?

PubMed

Ellison, J; Nagamuthu, C; Vanderloo, S; McRae, B; Waters, C

2016-10-01

Chronic disease rates are produced from the Public Health Agency of Canada's Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System (CCDSS) using administrative health data from provincial/territorial health ministries. Denominators for these rates are based on estimates of populations derived from health insurance files. However, these data may not be accessible to all researchers. Another source for population size estimates is the Statistics Canada census. The purpose of our study was to calculate the major differences between the CCDSS and Statistics Canada's population denominators and to identify the sources or reasons for the potential differences between these data sources. We compared the 2009 denominators from the CCDSS and Statistics Canada. The CCDSS denominator was adjusted for the growth components (births, deaths, emigration and immigration) from Statistics Canada's census data. The unadjusted CCDSS denominator was 34 429 804, 3.2% higher than Statistics Canada's estimate of population in 2009. After the CCDSS denominator was adjusted for the growth components, the difference between the two estimates was reduced to 431 323 people, a difference of 1.3%. The CCDSS overestimates the population relative to Statistics Canada overall. The largest difference between the two estimates was from the migrant growth component, while the smallest was from the emigrant component. By using data descriptions by data source, researchers can make decisions about which population to use in their calculations of disease frequency.

Profiling the different needs and expectations of patients for population-based medicine: a case study using segmentation analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This study illustrates an evidence-based method for the segmentation analysis of patients that could greatly improve the approach to population-based medicine, by filling a gap in the empirical analysis of this topic. Segmentation facilitates individual patient care in the context of the culture, health status, and the health needs of the entire population to which that patient belongs. Because many health systems are engaged in developing better chronic care management initiatives, patient profiles are critical to understanding whether some patients can move toward effective self-management and can play a central role in determining their own care, which fosters a sense of responsibility for their own health. A review of the literature on patient segmentation provided the background for this research. Method First, we conducted a literature review on patient satisfaction and segmentation to build a survey. Then, we performed 3,461 surveys of outpatient services users. The key structures on which the subjects’ perception of outpatient services was based were extrapolated using principal component factor analysis with varimax rotation. After the factor analysis, segmentation was performed through cluster analysis to better analyze the influence of individual attitudes on the results. Results Four segments were identified through factor and cluster analysis: the “unpretentious,” the “informed and supported,” the “experts” and the “advanced” patients. Their policies and managerial implications are outlined. Conclusions With this research, we provide the following: – a method for profiling patients based on common patient satisfaction surveys that is easily replicable in all health systems and contexts; – a proposal for segments based on the results of a broad-based analysis conducted in the Italian National Health System (INHS). Segments represent profiles of patients requiring different strategies for delivering health services. Their

N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

Official statistics and claims data records indicate non-response and recall bias within survey-based estimates of health care utilization in the older population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The validity of survey-based health care utilization estimates in the older population has been poorly researched. Owing to data protection legislation and a great number of different health care insurance providers, the assessment of recall and non-response bias is challenging to impossible in many countries. The objective of our study was to compare estimates from a population-based study in older German adults with external secondary data. Methods We used data from the German KORA-Age study, which included 4,127 people aged 65–94 years. Self-report questions covered the utilization of long-term care services, inpatient services, outpatient services, and pharmaceuticals. We calculated age- and sex-standardized mean utilization rates in each domain and compared them with the corresponding estimates derived from official statistics and independent statutory health insurance data. Results The KORA-Age study underestimated the use of long-term care services (−52%), in-hospital days (−21%) and physician visits (−70%). In contrast, the assessment of drug consumption by postal self-report questionnaires yielded similar estimates to the analysis of insurance claims data (−9%). Conclusion Survey estimates based on self-report tend to underestimate true health care utilization in the older population. Direct validation studies are needed to disentangle the impact of recall and non-response bias. PMID:23286781

Simultaneous pharmacogenetics-based population pharmacokinetic analysis of darunavir and ritonavir in HIV-infected patients.

PubMed

Moltó, José; Xinarianos, George; Miranda, Cristina; Pushpakom, Sudeep; Cedeño, Samandhy; Clotet, Bonaventura; Owen, Andrew; Valle, Marta

2013-07-01

Darunavir is a potent protease inhibitor of HIV. To enhance its pharmacokinetic profile, darunavir must be co-administered with ritonavir. There is wide inter-patient variability in darunavir pharmacokinetics among HIV-infected individuals, however. Darunavir is a known substrate for influx transporters, such as the 1A2 and the 1B1 members of the solute carrier organic anion transporter family (SLCO1A2, SLCO1B1), as well as for efflux transporters such as the multi-drug resistance protein 1 (MRP1). The aim of this study was to develop a semi-mechanistic population pharmacokinetic model for darunavir and ritonavir administered in HIV-infected adults. The desired model would incorporate patient characteristics and pharmacogenetic data contributing to variability in drug concentrations and also take into account the interaction between the two compounds. A population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with 705 plasma samples from 75 Caucasian individuals receiving darunavir/ritonavir (600/100 mg twice daily) for at least 4 weeks. At least one full pharmacokinetic profile was obtained for each participant, and darunavir and ritonavir concentrations in plasma were determined by high performance liquid chromatography. Genotyping for 148 polymorphisms in genes coding for transporters or metabolizing enzymes was conducted by two methods: MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and real-time polymerase chain reaction-based allelic discrimination. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed for darunavir and for ritonavir. The effect of single nucleotide polymorphisms on the post hoc individual pharmacokinetic parameters was first explored using graphic methods and regression analysis. Those covariates related to changes in darunavir or ritonavir pharmacokinetic parameters were then further evaluated using non-linear mixed effects modeling (NONMEM version VII). Darunavir and ritonavir pharmacokinetics were best described by a two- and one-compartment model, respectively, both

Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Seliske, L; Norwood, T A; McLaughlin, J R; Wang, S; Palleschi, C; Holowaty, E

2016-06-07

An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400-700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1), and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2). Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor), and an additional small community (Chatham) for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor) among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex sample survey data to identify micro areas with variation in risk

Double-survey estimates of bald eagle populations in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Garrett, Monte G.; Isaacs, F.B.

1999-01-01

The literature on abundance of birds of prey is almost devoid of population estimates with statistical rigor. Therefore, we surveyed bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations on the Crooked and lower Columbia rivers of Oregon and used the double-survey method to estimate populations and sighting probabilities for different survey methods (aerial, boat, vehicle) and bald eagle ages (adults vs. subadults). Sighting probabilities were consistently 20%. The results revealed variable and negative bias (percent relative bias = -9 to -70%) of direct counts and emphasized the importance of estimating populations where some measure of precision and ability to conduct inference tests are available. We recommend use of the double-survey method to estimate abundance of bald eagle populations and other raptors in open habitats.

Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; McCullough, Dale R.; Barrett, Reginald H.

2002-01-01

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

[WebSurvCa: web-based estimation of death and survival probabilities in a cohort].

PubMed

Clèries, Ramon; Ameijide, Alberto; Buxó, Maria; Vilardell, Mireia; Martínez, José Miguel; Alarcón, Francisco; Cordero, David; Díez-Villanueva, Ana; Yasui, Yutaka; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Vilardell, Maria Loreto; Carulla, Marià; Galceran, Jaume; Izquierdo, Ángel; Moreno, Víctor; Borràs, Josep M

2018-01-19

Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population). Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

Risk of fragility fracture among patients with sarcoidosis: a population-based study 1976-2013.

PubMed

Ungprasert, P; Crowson, C S; Matteson, E L

2017-06-01

Incidence of fragility fracture of a population-based cohort of 345 patients with sarcoidosis was compared with age and sex-matched comparators. The incidence of fragility fracture was higher among patients with sarcoidosis with hazard ratio (HR) of 2.18. Several chronic inflammatory disorders increase the risk of fragility fracture. However, little is known about the risk of fragility fracture in patients with sarcoidosis. This study was conducted using a previously identified population-based cohort of 345 patients with incident sarcoidosis from Olmsted County, Minnesota. Diagnosis of sarcoidosis required physician diagnosis supported by biopsy showing non-caseating granuloma, radiographic evidence of intrathoracic sarcoidosis, and compatible clinical presentations without evidence of other granulomatous diseases. Sex and age-matched subjects randomly selected from the same underlying population were used as comparators. Medical records of cases and comparators were reviewed for baseline characteristics and incident fragility fracture. Fragility fractures were observed in 34 patients with sarcoidosis, corresponding to a cumulative incidence of 5.6% at 10 years, while 18 fragility fractures were observed among comparators for a cumulative incidence of 2.4% at 10 years. The HR of fragility fractures among cases compared with comparators was 2.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-3.88). The risk of fragility fracture by site was significantly higher among patients with sarcoidosis, and was due to a higher rate of distal forearm fracture (HR 3.58; 95% CI 1.53-8.40). Statistically non-significant increased risk was also observed in proximal femur (HR 1.66; 95% CI 0.45-6.06) and proximal humerus (HR 3.27; 95% CI 0.66-16.21). Risk of vertebral fracture was not increased (HR 1.00; 95% CI 0.32-3.11). Patients with sarcoidosis have an increased risk of fragility fracture which is primarily driven by the higher incidence of distal forearm fracture.

The Improved Estimation of Ratio of Two Population Proportions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solanki, Ramkrishna S.; Singh, Housila P.

2016-01-01

In this article, first we obtained the correct mean square error expression of Gupta and Shabbir's linear weighted estimator of the ratio of two population proportions. Later we suggested the general class of ratio estimators of two population proportions. The usual ratio estimator, Wynn-type estimator, Singh, Singh, and Kaur difference-type…

Risk of fragility fracture among patients with sarcoidosis: a population-based study 1976-2013-supplementary presentation.

PubMed

Ungprasert, P; Crowson, C S; Matteson, E L

2018-05-01

Incidence of fragility fracture of a population-based cohort of 345 patients with sarcoidosis was compared with age- and sex-matched comparators. The incidence of fragility fracture was higher among patients with sarcoidosis with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.18.

The proportion cured of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV cutaneous malignant melanoma in Sweden 1990-2007: A population-based study.

PubMed

Eriksson, Hanna; Lyth, Johan; Andersson, Therese M-L

2016-06-15

The survival in cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is highly dependent on the stage of the disease. Stage III-IV CMM patients are at high risk of relapse with a heterogeneous outcome, but not all experience excess mortality due to their disease. This group is referred to as the cure proportion representing the proportion of patients who experience the same mortality rate as the general population. The aim of this study was to estimate the cure proportion of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV CMM in Sweden. From the population-based Swedish Melanoma Register, we included 856 patients diagnosed with primary Stage III-IV CMM, 1990-2007, followed-up through 2013. We used flexible parametric cure models to estimate cure proportions and median survival times (MSTs) of uncured by sex, age, tumor site, ulceration status (in Stage III patients) and disease stage. The standardized (over sex, age and site) cure proportion was lower in Stage IV CMMs (0.15, 95% CI 0.09-0.22) than non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.55) with a statistically significant difference of 0.33 (95% CI = 0.24-0.41). Ulcerated Stage III CMMs had a cure proportion of 0.27 (95% CI 0.21-0.32) with a statistically significant difference compared to non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (difference 0.21; 95% CI = 0.13-0.30). The standardized MST of uncured was approximately 9-10 months longer for non-ulcerated versus ulcerated Stage III CMMs. We could demonstrate a significantly better outcome in patients diagnosed with non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs compared to ulcerated Stage III CMMs and Stage IV disease after adjusting for age, sex and tumor site. © 2016 UICC.

Estimating the number of animals in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lancia, R.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Braun, Clait E.

2005-01-01

INTRODUCTION In 1938, Howard M. Wight devoted 9 pages, which was an entire chapter in the first wildlife management techniques manual, to what he termed 'census' methods. As books and chapters such as this attest, the volume of literature on this subject has grown tremendously. Abundance estimation remains an active area of biometrical research, as reflected in the many differences between this chapter and the similar contribution in the previous manual. Our intent in this chapter is to present an overview of the basic and most widely used population estimation techniques and to provide an entree to the relevant literature. Several possible approaches could be taken in writing a chapter dealing with population estimation. For example, we could provide a detailed treatment focusing on statistical models and on derivation of estimators based on these models. Although a chapter using this approach might provide a valuable reference for quantitative biologists and biometricians, it would be of limited use to many field biologists and wildlife managers. Another approach would be to focus on details of actually applying different population estimation techniques. This approach would include both field application (e.g., how to set out a trapping grid or conduct an aerial survey) and detailed instructions on how to use the resulting data with appropriate estimation equations. We are reluctant to attempt such an approach, however, because of the tremendous diversity of real-world field situations defined by factors such as the animal being studied, habitat, available resources, and because of our resultant inability to provide detailed instructions for all possible cases. We believe it is more useful to provide the reader with the conceptual basis underlying estimation methods. Thus, we have tried to provide intuitive explanations for how basic methods work. In doing so, we present relevant estimation equations for many methods and provide citations of more detailed

Estimation of Untracked Geosynchronous Population from Short-Arc Angles-Only Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Healy, Liam; Matney, Mark

2017-01-01

Telescope observations of the geosynchronous regime will observe two basic types of objects --- objects related to geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) satellites, and objects in highly elliptical geosynchronous transfer orbits (GTO). Because telescopes only measure angular rates, the GTO can occasionally mimic the motion of GEO objects over short arcs. A GEO census based solely on short arc telescope observations may be affected by these ``interlopers''. A census that includes multiple angular rates can get an accurate statistical estimate of the GTO population, and that then can be used to correct the estimate of the geosynchronous earth orbit population.

A population-based tissue probability map-driven level set method for fully automated mammographic density estimations.

PubMed

Kim, Youngwoo; Hong, Byung Woo; Kim, Seung Ja; Kim, Jong Hyo

2014-07-01

A major challenge when distinguishing glandular tissues on mammograms, especially for area-based estimations, lies in determining a boundary on a hazy transition zone from adipose to glandular tissues. This stems from the nature of mammography, which is a projection of superimposed tissues consisting of different structures. In this paper, the authors present a novel segmentation scheme which incorporates the learned prior knowledge of experts into a level set framework for fully automated mammographic density estimations. The authors modeled the learned knowledge as a population-based tissue probability map (PTPM) that was designed to capture the classification of experts' visual systems. The PTPM was constructed using an image database of a selected population consisting of 297 cases. Three mammogram experts extracted regions for dense and fatty tissues on digital mammograms, which was an independent subset used to create a tissue probability map for each ROI based on its local statistics. This tissue class probability was taken as a prior in the Bayesian formulation and was incorporated into a level set framework as an additional term to control the evolution and followed the energy surface designed to reflect experts' knowledge as well as the regional statistics inside and outside of the evolving contour. A subset of 100 digital mammograms, which was not used in constructing the PTPM, was used to validate the performance. The energy was minimized when the initial contour reached the boundary of the dense and fatty tissues, as defined by experts. The correlation coefficient between mammographic density measurements made by experts and measurements by the proposed method was 0.93, while that with the conventional level set was 0.47. The proposed method showed a marked improvement over the conventional level set method in terms of accuracy and reliability. This result suggests that the proposed method successfully incorporated the learned knowledge of the experts

[The electromagnetic fields of the base stations of mobile radio communication and ecology. The estimation of danger of the base station EMF for population and for bioecosystems].

PubMed

Grigor'ev, Iu G; Grigor'ev, K A

2005-01-01

The estimation of the danger for the population and for the bioecosistems of the electromagnetic conditions around of the base stations was given. The insufficiency of the scientific knowledge does not allow to guarantee the safety of the population and of the bioecosystems in the conditions of a round-the-clock long-term influence of EMF RF. WHO recommends to use "Precautionary principle".

Incidence of Melanoma in Children: A Population-Based Study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

PubMed

Lowe, Garrett C; Brewer, Jerry D; Peters, Margot S; Davis, Dawn M R

2015-01-01

The incidence of melanoma has been rising in the United States, with conflicting evidence regarding trends in children. We identified patients 0 to 17 years old with a diagnosis of melanoma from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2010, in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Information on survival and demographic characteristics was abstracted, and estimates of true incidence were calculated. The estimated true incidence of melanoma in children from 1970 to 2010 was found to be 0.62 per 100,000 girls and 0.45 per 100,000 boys. The incidence of melanoma in this population did not increase with time after adjusting for age and sex. Only one case of metastatic disease (lymph node) was identified. Girls were more commonly affected and the mean age of disease onset was 14 years. Five of the seven melanomas in this population arose in association with a nevus, and none involved the trunk. Overall and disease-specific survival rates were not calculated because all patients studied were alive at the last follow-up. The estimated true incidence rates of pediatric melanoma from our population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, appear stable. This finding is in contrast to our prior research showing rapidly increasing incidence rates of melanoma in young and middle-aged adults from the same population. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating snow leopard population abundance using photography and capture-recapture techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, R.M.; Roe, J.D.; Wangchuk, R.; Hunter, D.O.

2006-01-01

Conservation and management of snow leopards (Uncia uncia) has largely relied on anecdotal evidence and presence-absence data due to their cryptic nature and the difficult terrain they inhabit. These methods generally lack the scientific rigor necessary to accurately estimate population size and monitor trends. We evaluated the use of photography in capture-mark-recapture (CMR) techniques for estimating snow leopard population abundance and density within Hemis National Park, Ladakh, India. We placed infrared camera traps along actively used travel paths, scent-sprayed rocks, and scrape sites within 16- to 30-km2 sampling grids in successive winters during January and March 2003-2004. We used head-on, oblique, and side-view camera configurations to obtain snow leopard photographs at varying body orientations. We calculated snow leopard abundance estimates using the program CAPTURE. We obtained a total of 66 and 49 snow leopard captures resulting in 8.91 and 5.63 individuals per 100 trap-nights during 2003 and 2004, respectively. We identified snow leopards based on the distinct pelage patterns located primarily on the forelimbs, flanks, and dorsal surface of the tail. Capture probabilities ranged from 0.33 to 0.67. Density estimates ranged from 8.49 (SE = 0.22; individuals per 100 km2 in 2003 to 4.45 (SE = 0.16) in 2004. We believe the density disparity between years is attributable to different trap density and placement rather than to an actual decline in population size. Our results suggest that photographic capture-mark-recapture sampling may be a useful tool for monitoring demographic patterns. However, we believe a larger sample size would be necessary for generating a statistically robust estimate of population density and abundance based on CMR models.

Estimating population salt intake in India using spot urine samples.

PubMed

Petersen, Kristina S; Johnson, Claire; Mohan, Sailesh; Rogers, Kris; Shivashankar, Roopa; Thout, Sudhir Raj; Gupta, Priti; He, Feng J; MacGregor, Graham A; Webster, Jacqui; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Krishnan, Anand; Maulik, Pallab K; Reddy, K Srinath; Gupta, Ruby; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Neal, Bruce

2017-11-01

To compare estimates of mean population salt intake in North and South India derived from spot urine samples versus 24-h urine collections. In a cross-sectional survey, participants were sampled from slum, urban and rural communities in North and in South India. Participants provided 24-h urine collections, and random morning spot urine samples. Salt intake was estimated from the spot urine samples using a series of established estimating equations. Salt intake data from the 24-h urine collections and spot urine equations were weighted to provide estimates of salt intake for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh. A total of 957 individuals provided a complete 24-h urine collection and a spot urine sample. Weighted mean salt intake based on the 24-h urine collection, was 8.59 (95% confidence interval 7.73-9.45) and 9.46 g/day (8.95-9.96) in Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. Corresponding estimates based on the Tanaka equation [9.04 (8.63-9.45) and 9.79 g/day (9.62-9.96) for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively], the Mage equation [8.80 (7.67-9.94) and 10.19 g/day (95% CI 9.59-10.79)], the INTERSALT equation [7.99 (7.61-8.37) and 8.64 g/day (8.04-9.23)] and the INTERSALT equation with potassium [8.13 (7.74-8.52) and 8.81 g/day (8.16-9.46)] were all within 1 g/day of the estimate based upon 24-h collections. For the Toft equation, estimates were 1-2 g/day higher [9.94 (9.24-10.64) and 10.69 g/day (9.44-11.93)] and for the Kawasaki equation they were 3-4 g/day higher [12.14 (11.30-12.97) and 13.64 g/day (13.15-14.12)]. In urban and rural areas in North and South India, most spot urine-based equations provided reasonable estimates of mean population salt intake. Equations that did not provide good estimates may have failed because specimen collection was not aligned with the original method.

Estimating radiation dose to organs of patients undergoing conventional and novel multidetector CT exams using Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angel, Erin

Advances in Computed Tomography (CT) technology have led to an increase in the modality's diagnostic capabilities and therefore its utilization, which has in turn led to an increase in radiation exposure to the patient population. As a result, CT imaging currently constitutes approximately half of the collective exposure to ionizing radiation from medical procedures. In order to understand the radiation risk, it is necessary to estimate the radiation doses absorbed by patients undergoing CT imaging. The most widely accepted risk models are based on radiosensitive organ dose as opposed to whole body dose. In this research, radiosensitive organ dose was estimated using Monte Carlo based simulations incorporating detailed multidetector CT (MDCT) scanner models, specific scan protocols, and using patient models based on accurate patient anatomy and representing a range of patient sizes. Organ dose estimates were estimated for clinical MDCT exam protocols which pose a specific concern for radiosensitive organs or regions. These dose estimates include estimation of fetal dose for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen pelvis CT exams or undergoing exams to diagnose pulmonary embolism and venous thromboembolism. Breast and lung dose were estimated for patients undergoing coronary CTA imaging, conventional fixed tube current chest CT, and conventional tube current modulated (TCM) chest CT exams. The correlation of organ dose with patient size was quantified for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen/pelvis exams and for all breast and lung dose estimates presented. Novel dose reduction techniques were developed that incorporate organ location and are specifically designed to reduce close to radiosensitive organs during CT acquisition. A generalizable model was created for simulating conventional and novel attenuation-based TCM algorithms which can be used in simulations estimating organ dose for any patient model. The generalizable model is a significant contribution of this

Divergence between human populations estimated from linkage disequilibrium.

PubMed

Sved, John A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

2008-12-01

Observed linkage disequilibrium (LD) between genetic markers in different populations descended independently from a common ancestral population can be used to estimate their absolute time of divergence, because the correlation of LD between populations will be reduced each generation by an amount that, approximately, depends only on the recombination rate between markers. Although drift leads to divergence in allele frequencies, it has less effect on divergence in LD values. We derived the relationship between LD and time of divergence and verified it with coalescent simulations. We then used HapMap Phase II data to estimate time of divergence between human populations. Summed over large numbers of pairs of loci, we find a positive correlation of LD between African and non-African populations at levels of up to approximately 0.3 cM. We estimate that the observed correlation of LD is consistent with an effective separation time of approximately 1,000 generations or approximately 25,000 years before present. The most likely explanation for such relatively low separation times is the existence of substantial levels of migration between populations after the initial separation. Theory and results from coalescent simulations confirm that low levels of migration can lead to a downward bias in the estimate of separation time.

Medical resource use and expenditure in patients with chronic heart failure: a population-based analysis of 88 195 patients.

PubMed

Farré, Nuria; Vela, Emili; Clèries, Montse; Bustins, Montse; Cainzos-Achirica, Miguel; Enjuanes, Cristina; Moliner, Pedro; Ruiz, Sonia; Verdú-Rotellar, Jose Maria; Comín-Colet, Josep

2016-09-01

Heart failure (HF) is one of the diseases with greater healthcare expenditure. However, little is known about the cost of HF at a population level. Hence, our aim was to study the population-level distribution and predictors of healthcare expenditure in patients with HF. This was a population-based longitudinal study including all prevalent HF cases in Catalonia (Spain) on 31 December 2012 (n = 88 195). We evaluated 1-year healthcare resource use and expenditure using the Health Department (CatSalut) surveillance system that collects detailed information on healthcare usage for the entire population. Mean age was 77.4 (12) years; 55% were women. One-year mortality rate was 14%. All-cause emergency department visits and unplanned hospitalizations were required at least once in 53.4% and 30.8% of patients, respectively. During 2013, a total of €536.2 million were spent in the care of HF patients (7.1% of the total healthcare budget). The main source of expenditure was hospitalization (39% of the total) whereas outpatient care represented 20% of the total expenditure. In the general population, outpatient care and hospitalization were the main expenses. In multivariate analysis, younger age, higher presence of co-morbidities, and a recent HF or all-cause hospitalization were independently associated with higher healthcare expenditure. In Catalonia, a large portion of the annual healthcare budget is devoted to HF patients. Unplanned hospitalization represents the main source of healthcare-related expenditure. The knowledge of how expenditure is distributed in a non-selected HF population might allow health providers to plan the distribution of resources in patients with HF. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

PubMed

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visual loss after spine surgery: a population-based study.

PubMed

Patil, Chirag G; Lad, Eleonora M; Lad, Shivanand P; Ho, Chris; Boakye, Maxwell

2008-06-01

Retrospective cohort study using National inpatient sample administrative data. To determine national estimates of visual impairment and ischemic optic neuropathy after spine surgery. Loss of vision after spine surgery is rare but has devastating complications that has gained increasing recognition in the recent literature. National population-based studies of visual complications after spine surgery are lacking. All patients from 1993 to 2002 who underwent spine surgery (Clinical Classifications software procedure code: 3, 158) and who had ischemic optic neuropathy (ION) (ICD9-CM code 377.41), central retinal artery occlusion (CRAO) (ICD9-CM code 362.31) or non-ION, non-CRAO perioperative visual impairment (ICD9-CM codes: 369, 368.4, 368.8-9368.11-13) were included. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify potential risk factors. The overall incidence of visual disturbance after spine surgery was 0.094%. Spine surgery for scoliosis correction and posterior lumbar fusion had the highest rates of postoperative visual loss of 0.28% and 0.14% respectively. Pediatric patients (<18 years) were 5.8 times and elderly patients (>84 years) were 3.2 times more likely than, patients 18 to 44 years of age to develop non-ION, non-CRAO visual loss after spine surgery. Patients with peripheral vascular disease (OR = 2.0), hypertension (OR = 1.3), and those who received blood transfusion (OR = 2.2) were more likely to develop non-ION, non-CRAO vision loss after spine surgery. Ischemic optic neuropathy was present in 0.006% of patients. Hypotension (OR = 10.1), peripheral vascular disease (OR = 6.3) and anemia (OR = 5.9) were the strongest risk factors identified for the development of ION. We used multivariate analysis to identify significant risk factors for visual loss after spine surgery. National population-based estimate of visual impairment after spine surgery confirms that ophthalmic complications after spine surgery are rare. Since visual loss may be

Patients' estimations of the importance of preventive health services: a nationwide, population-based cross-sectional study in Portugal

PubMed Central

Sá, Luísa; Ribeiro, Orquídea; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; Couto, Luciana; Costa-Pereira, Altamiro; Hespanhol, Alberto; Santos, Paulo

2016-01-01

Objectives To determine, in the context of primary care preventive health services, the level of importance that Portuguese patients attribute to different preventive activities. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Primary Healthcare, Portugal. Participants 1000 Portuguese adults selected by a stratified cluster sampling design were invited to participate in a computer-assisted telephone survey. Persons with a cognitive or physical disability that hampered the ability to complete a telephone interview and being a nursing home resident or resident in any other type of collective dwelling were excluded. Outcomes Mean level of importance assigned to 20 different medical preventive activities, using a scale of 1–10, with 1 corresponding to ‘no importance for you and your health’ and 10 indicating ‘very important’. Results The mean level of importance assigned to medical preventive activity was 7.70 (95% CI 7.60 to 7.80). Routine blood and urine tests were considered the most important, with an estimated mean of 9.15 (95% CI 9.07 to 9.24), followed by female-specific interventions (Pap smear, mammography and gynaecological and breast ultrasounds), with mean importance ranging from 8.45 (95% CI 8.23 to 8.63) for mammography to 8.56 (95% CI 8.36 to 8.76) for Pap smear. Advice regarding alcohol consumption (6.18; 95% CI 5.96 to 6.39) and tobacco consumption (5.99; 95% CI 5.75 to 6.23) were considered much less important. Conclusions Our results reveal that Portuguese patients overestimate the importance of preventive medical activities, tend to give more importance to diagnostic and laboratory tests than to lifestyle measures, do not discriminate tests that are important and evidence-based, and seem not be aware of the individualisation of risk. Family physicians should be aware of these optimistic expectations, because these can influence the doctor–patient relationship when discussing these interventions and incorporating personalised risk. PMID:27707825

Comparison of outcomes after use of biphasic or monophasic defibrillators among out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients: a nationwide population-based observational study.

PubMed

Tanabe, Seizan; Yasunaga, Hideo; Ogawa, Toshio; Koike, Soichi; Akahane, Manabu; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Hatanaka, Tetsuo; Yokota, Hiroyuki; Imamura, Tomoaki

2012-09-01

The use and popularity of the biphasic waveform defibrillator as a replacement for the monophasic waveform defibrillator are increasing, but it is unclear whether this can improve the rate of survival among out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients. This study aimed to verify the hypothesis that the outcome of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients who received defibrillation shock with the biphasic waveform defibrillator was better than that of patients who received defibrillation shock with the monophasic defibrillator. This prospective, nationwide, population-based, observational study included 21 172 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with initial ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2007. Defibrillation shock was performed by monophasic defibrillator on 8224 (39%) patients and by biphasic defibrillator on 12 948 (61%) patients. The rate of survival at 1 month with minimal neurological impairment was 11.6% (951/8192) in the monophasic defibrillator group and 12.8% (1653/12 928) in the biphasic defibrillator group. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis using a generalized estimation equation showed no significant difference between the biphasic and monophasic groups in 1-month survival with minimal neurological impairment (adjusted odds ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.26; P=0.42). Confirmatory propensity score analyses showed similar results. Although monophasic defibrillators are being replaced by biphasic defibrillators, our nationwide population-based observational study failed to demonstrate a statistically significant association between defibrillation waveform and 1-month survival rate with minimal neurological impairment.

A comparison of methods for calculating population exposure estimates of daily weather for health research.

PubMed

Hanigan, Ivan; Hall, Gillian; Dear, Keith B G

2006-09-13

To explain the possible effects of exposure to weather conditions on population health outcomes, weather data need to be calculated at a level in space and time that is appropriate for the health data. There are various ways of estimating exposure values from raw data collected at weather stations but the rationale for using one technique rather than another; the significance of the difference in the values obtained; and the effect these have on a research question are factors often not explicitly considered. In this study we compare different techniques for allocating weather data observations to small geographical areas and different options for weighting averages of these observations when calculating estimates of daily precipitation and temperature for Australian Postal Areas. Options that weight observations based on distance from population centroids and population size are more computationally intensive but give estimates that conceptually are more closely related to the experience of the population. Options based on values derived from sites internal to postal areas, or from nearest neighbour sites--that is, using proximity polygons around weather stations intersected with postal areas--tended to include fewer stations' observations in their estimates, and missing values were common. Options based on observations from stations within 50 kilometres radius of centroids and weighting of data by distance from centroids gave more complete estimates. Using the geographic centroid of the postal area gave estimates that differed slightly from the population weighted centroids and the population weighted average of sub-unit estimates. To calculate daily weather exposure values for analysis of health outcome data for small areas, the use of data from weather stations internal to the area only, or from neighbouring weather stations (allocated by the use of proximity polygons), is too limited. The most appropriate method conceptually is the use of weather data from

Updated estimate of trans fat intake by the US population.

PubMed

Doell, D; Folmer, D; Lee, H; Honigfort, M; Carberry, S

2012-01-01

The dietary intake of industrially-produced trans fatty acids (IP-TFA) was estimated for the US population (aged 2 years or more), children (aged 2-5 years) and teenage boys (aged 13-18 years) using the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) food consumption database, market share information and trans fat levels based on label survey data and analytical data for packaged and in-store purchased foods. For fast foods, a Monte Carlo model was used to estimate IP-TFA intake. Further, the intake of trans fat was also estimated using trans fat levels reported in the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, Release 22 (SR 22, 2009) and the 2003-2006 NHANES food consumption database. The cumulative intake of IP-TFA was estimated to be 1.3 g per person per day (g/p/d) at the mean for the US population. Based on this estimate, the mean dietary intake of IP-TFA has decreased significantly from that cited in the 2003 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) final rule that established labelling requirements for trans fat (4.6 g/p/d for adults). Although the overall intake of IP-TFA has decreased as a result of the implementation of labelling requirements, individuals with certain dietary habits may still consume high levels of IP-TFA if certain brands or types of food products are frequently chosen.

Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

Treesearch

David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

2012-01-01

Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

Molybdenum target specifications for cyclotron production of 99mTc based on patient dose estimates.

PubMed

Hou, X; Tanguay, J; Buckley, K; Schaffer, P; Bénard, F; Ruth, T J; Celler, A

2016-01-21

In response to the recognized fragility of reactor-produced (99)Mo supply, direct production of (99m)Tc via (100)Mo(p,2n)(99m)Tc reaction using medical cyclotrons has been investigated. However, due to the existence of other Molybdenum (Mo) isotopes in the target, in parallel with (99m)Tc, other technetium (Tc) radioactive isotopes (impurities) will be produced. They will be incorporated into the labeled radiopharmaceuticals and result in increased patient dose. The isotopic composition of the target and beam energy are main factors that determine production of impurities, thus also dose increases. Therefore, they both must be considered when selecting targets for clinical (99m)Tc production. Although for any given Mo target, the patient dose can be predicted based on complicated calculations of production yields for each Tc radioisotope, it would be very difficult to reverse these calculations to specify target composition based on dosimetry considerations. In this article, a relationship between patient dosimetry and Mo target composition is studied. A simple and easy algorithm for dose estimation, based solely on the knowledge of target composition and beam energy, is described. Using this algorithm, the patient dose increase due to every Mo isotope that could be present in the target is estimated. Most importantly, a technique to determine Mo target composition thresholds that would meet any given dosimetry requirement is proposed.

Molybdenum target specifications for cyclotron production of 99mTc based on patient dose estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, X.; Tanguay, J.; Buckley, K.; Schaffer, P.; Bénard, F.; Ruth, T. J.; Celler, A.

2016-01-01

In response to the recognized fragility of reactor-produced 99Mo supply, direct production of 99mTc via 100Mo(p,2n)99mTc reaction using medical cyclotrons has been investigated. However, due to the existence of other Molybdenum (Mo) isotopes in the target, in parallel with 99mTc, other technetium (Tc) radioactive isotopes (impurities) will be produced. They will be incorporated into the labeled radiopharmaceuticals and result in increased patient dose. The isotopic composition of the target and beam energy are main factors that determine production of impurities, thus also dose increases. Therefore, they both must be considered when selecting targets for clinical 99mTc production. Although for any given Mo target, the patient dose can be predicted based on complicated calculations of production yields for each Tc radioisotope, it would be very difficult to reverse these calculations to specify target composition based on dosimetry considerations. In this article, a relationship between patient dosimetry and Mo target composition is studied. A simple and easy algorithm for dose estimation, based solely on the knowledge of target composition and beam energy, is described. Using this algorithm, the patient dose increase due to every Mo isotope that could be present in the target is estimated. Most importantly, a technique to determine Mo target composition thresholds that would meet any given dosimetry requirement is proposed.

Cancer risk in fathers and brothers of testicular cancer patients in Denmark. A population-based study.

PubMed

Westergaard, T; Olsen, J H; Frisch, M; Kroman, N; Nielsen, J W; Melbye, M

1996-05-29

There are several reports of familial testicular cancer in the literature but few systematic attempts have been made to estimate the risk of testicular cancer in first-degree relatives of patients with this neoplasm, and the risk remains to be fully assessed in population-based studies. By means of data from the Danish Cancer Registry, we identified all testicular cancer patients (index cases) born and diagnosed during 1950-1993 in Denmark. Their fathers were identified from national registries, as were the brothers of a subcohort of these patients. Familial cancer occurrence was determined through linkage with the cancer registry and compared with the cancer incidence in the general male population in Denmark. The ratio of observed to expected cancers generated the measure used for the relative risk. Fathers of 2,113 index cases with testicular cancer experienced an almost 2-fold risk of developing testicular cancer themselves (RR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.01-3.43). Overall, the fathers had a decreased relative cancer risk (RR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.74-0.95) with a significantly decreased risk of cancers of the lung and digestive organs. Brothers of a subcohort of 702 index cases showed a markedly increased risk of testicular cancer (RR = 12.3; 95% CI: 3.3-3 1.5). In conclusion, we documented a significantly increased familial risk of testicular cancer which was relatively more pronounced between brothers than between fathers and sons. These findings support the possible involvement of a genetic component in the aetiology of testicular cancer, but also leave room for a hypothesized influence of in-utero exposures, such as specific maternal hormone levels, that might be shared by brothers.

Estimated Full Scale IQ in an Adult Heroin Addict Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chastain, Robert L.; And Others

The research concerning intellectual functioning in addict populations has not addressed basic questions concerning why and how intelligence quotients (IQ) might be related to drug addiction. A study was undertaken to estimate intellectual functioning based upon a demographic profile for Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised (WAIS-R) Full…

Optimal designs for population pharmacokinetic studies of the partner drugs co-administered with artemisinin derivatives in patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Jamsen, Kris M; Duffull, Stephen B; Tarning, Joel; Lindegardh, Niklas; White, Nicholas J; Simpson, Julie A

2012-07-11

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is currently recommended as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria, but of concern, it has been observed that the effectiveness of the main artemisinin derivative, artesunate, has been diminished due to parasite resistance. This reduction in effect highlights the importance of the partner drugs in ACT and provides motivation to gain more knowledge of their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties via population PK studies. Optimal design methodology has been developed for population PK studies, which analytically determines a sampling schedule that is clinically feasible and yields precise estimation of model parameters. In this work, optimal design methodology was used to determine sampling designs for typical future population PK studies of the partner drugs (mefloquine, lumefantrine, piperaquine and amodiaquine) co-administered with artemisinin derivatives. The optimal designs were determined using freely available software and were based on structural PK models from the literature and the key specifications of 100 patients with five samples per patient, with one sample taken on the seventh day of treatment. The derived optimal designs were then evaluated via a simulation-estimation procedure. For all partner drugs, designs consisting of two sampling schedules (50 patients per schedule) with five samples per patient resulted in acceptable precision of the model parameter estimates. The sampling schedules proposed in this paper should be considered in future population pharmacokinetic studies where intensive sampling over many days or weeks of follow-up is not possible due to either ethical, logistic or economical reasons.

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods

PubMed Central

Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2014-01-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture–recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture–recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998–3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916–2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture–recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture–recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. PMID:25336306

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

PubMed

Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2015-10-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John; Boomer, G. Scott; Devers, Patrick K.; Garrettson, Pamela R.

2017-01-01

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) are important harvested birds in the Atlantic Flyway (AF) that are difficult to detect during aerial surveys because they prefer forested habitat. We integrated Wood Duck count data from a ground-plot survey in the northeastern U.S. with AF-wide BBS, banding, parts collection, and harvest data to derive estimates of population size for the AF. Overlapping results between the smaller-scale intensive ground-plot survey and the BBS in the northeastern U.S. provided a means for scaling BBS indices to the breeding population size estimates. We applied these scaling factors to BBS results for portions of the AF lacking intensive surveys. Banding data provided estimates of annual survival and harvest rates; the latter, when combined with parts-collection data, provided estimates of recruitment. We used the harvest data to estimate fall population size. Our estimates of breeding population size and variability from the integrated population model (N̄ = 0.99 million, SD = 0.04) were similar to estimates of breeding population size based solely on data from the AF ground-plot surveys and the BBS (N̄ = 1.01 million, SD = 0.04) from 1998 to 2015. Integrating BBS data with other data provided reliable population size estimates for Wood Ducks at a scale useful for harvest and habitat management in the AF, and allowed us to derive estimates of important demographic parameters (e.g., seasonal survival rates, sex ratio) that were not directly informed by data.

Monophasic versus biphasic defibrillation for pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients: a nationwide population-based study in Japan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Conventional monophasic defibrillators for out-of-hospital cardiac-arrest patients have been replaced with biphasic defibrillators. However, the advantage of biphasic over monophasic defibrillation for pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac-arrest patients remains unknown. This study aimed to compare the survival outcomes of pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac-arrest patients who underwent monophasic defibrillation with those who underwent biphasic defibrillation. Methods This prospective, nationwide, population-based observational study included pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac-arrest patients from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2009. The primary outcome measure was survival at 1 month with minimal neurologic impairment. The secondary outcome measures were survival at 1 month and the return of spontaneous circulation before hospital arrival. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent association between defibrillator type (monophasic or biphasic) and outcomes. Results Among 5,628 pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac-arrest patients (1 through 17 years old), 430 who received defibrillation shock with monophasic or biphasic defibrillator were analyzed. The number of patients who received defibrillation shock with monophasic defibrillator was 127 (30%), and 303 (70%) received defibrillation shock with biphasic defibrillator. The survival rates at 1 month with minimal neurologic impairment were 17.5% and 24.4%, the survival rates at 1 month were 32.3% and 35.6%, and the rates of return of spontaneous circulation before hospital arrival were 24.4% and 27.4% in the monophasic and biphasic defibrillator groups, respectively. Hierarchic logistic regression analyses by using generalized estimation equations found no significant difference between the two groups in terms of 1-month survival with minimal neurologic impairment (odds ratio (OR), 1.57; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.87 to 2.83; P = 0.14) and 1-month survival (OR

Scleroderma prevalence: demographic variations in a population-based sample.

PubMed

Bernatsky, S; Joseph, L; Pineau, C A; Belisle, P; Hudson, M; Clarke, A E

2009-03-15

To estimate the prevalence of systemic sclerosis (SSc) using population-based administrative data, and to assess the sensitivity of case ascertainment approaches. We ascertained SSc cases from Quebec physician billing and hospitalization databases (covering approximately 7.5 million individuals). Three case definition algorithms were compared, and statistical methods accounting for imperfect case ascertainment were used to estimate SSc prevalence and case ascertainment sensitivity. A hierarchical Bayesian latent class regression model that accounted for possible between-test dependence conditional on disease status estimated the effect of patient characteristics on SSc prevalence and the sensitivity of the 3 ascertainment algorithms. Accounting for error inherent in both the billing and the hospitalization data, we estimated SSc prevalence in 2003 at 74.4 cases per 100,000 women (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 69.3-79.7) and 13.3 cases per 100,000 men (95% CrI 11.1-16.1). Prevalence was higher for older individuals, particularly in urban women (161.2 cases per 100,000, 95% CrI 148.6-175.0). Prevalence was lowest in young men (in rural areas, as low as 2.8 cases per 100,000, 95% CrI 1.4-4.8). In general, no single algorithm was very sensitive, with point estimates for sensitivity ranging from 20-73%. We found marked differences in SSc prevalence according to age, sex, and region. In general, no single case ascertainment approach was very sensitive for SSc. Therefore, using data from multiple sources, with adjustment for the imperfect nature of each, is an important strategy in population-based studies of SSc and similar conditions.

Osteoporosis in adult patients with atopic dermatitis: A nationwide population-based study

PubMed Central

Lu, Chun-Ching; Su, Yu-Feng; Tsai, Tai-Hsin; Wu, Chieh-Hsin

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate osteoporosis risk in atopic dermatitis (AD) patients. This study included patients in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research dataset. The population-based study included all patients aged 20–49 years who had been diagnosed with AD during 1996–2010. In total, 35,229 age and gender-matched patients without AD in a 1:1 ratio were randomly selected as the non-AD group. Cox proportional-hazards regression and Kaplan–Meier analyses were used to measure the hazard ratios and the cumulative incidences of osteoporosis, respectively. During the follow-up period, 360(1.02%) AD patients and 127(0.36%) non-AD patients developed osteoporosis. The overall incidence of osteoporosis was4.72-fold greater in the AD patients compared to the non-AD patients (1.82 vs. 0.24 per 1,000 person-years, respectively) after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Osteoporosis risk factors included female gender, age, advanced Charlson Comorbidity Index, depression and use of corticosteroids. The dataset analysis showed that AD was significantly associated with subsequent risk of osteoporosis. PMID:28207767

Postoperative Mortality Among Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Studies.

PubMed

Singh, Sunny; Al-Darmaki, Ahmed; Frolkis, Alexandra D; Seow, Cynthia H; Leung, Yvette; Novak, Kerri L; Ghosh, Subrata; Eksteen, Bertus; Panaccione, Remo; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-10-01

There have been varying reports of mortality after intestinal resection for the inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies to determine postoperative mortality after intestinal resection in patients with IBD. We searched Medline, EMBASE, and PubMed, from 1990 through 2015, to identify 18 articles and 3 abstracts reporting postoperative mortality among patients with IBD. The studies included 67,057 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 75,971 patients with Crohn's disease (CD), from 15 countries. Mortality estimates stratified by emergent and elective surgeries were pooled separately for CD and UC using a random-effects model. To assess changes over time, the start year of the study was included as a continuous variable in a meta-regression model. In patients with UC, postoperative mortality was significantly lower among patients who underwent elective (0.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6%-0.9%) vs emergent surgery (5.3%; 95% CI, 3.8%-7.4%). In patients with CD, postoperative mortality was significantly lower among patients who underwent elective (0.6%; 95% CI, 0.2%-1.7%) vs emergent surgery (3.6%; 95% CI, 1.8%-6.9%). Postoperative mortality did not differ for elective (P = .78) or emergent (P = .31) surgeries when patients with UC were compared with patients with CD. Postoperative mortality decreased significantly over time for patients with CD (P < .05) but not UC (P = .21). Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis, postoperative mortality was high after emergent, but not elective, intestinal resection in patients with UC or CD. Optimization of management strategies and more effective therapies are necessary to avoid emergent surgeries. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

HIV-Prevalence in Tuberculosis Patients in Germany, 2002–2009: An Estimation Based on HIV and Tuberculosis Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Fiebig, Lena; Kollan, Christian; Hauer, Barbara; Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Barbara; an der Heiden, Matthias; Hamouda, Osamah; Haas, Walter

2012-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV comorbidity is a major challenge in TB prevention and control but difficult to assess in Germany as in other countries, where data confidentiality precludes notifying the HIV status of TB patients. We aimed to estimate the HIV-prevalence in TB patients in Germany, 2002–2009, and to characterize the HIV/TB patients demographically. Data from the long-term observational open multicentre cohort ClinSurv HIV were used to identify incident TB in HIV-positive individuals. We assessed the cohort’s coverage for the nationwide HIV-positive population by contrasting ClinSurv HIV patients under antiretroviral therapy (ART) with national HIV patient numbers derived from ART prescriptions (data by Insight Health; available for 2006–2009). The HIV-prevalence in TB patients was calculated as the number of HIV/TB cases projected for Germany over all culture-positive TB notifications. From 2002 to 2009, 298 of 15,531 HIV-positive patients enrolled in the ClinSurv HIV cohort were diagnosed with TB. A 21% cohort coverage was determined. The annual estimates of the HIV-prevalence in TB patients were on average 4.5% and ranged from 3.5% (95%CI 2.3–5.1%) in 2007 to 6.6% (95%CI 5.0–8.5%) in 2005. The most recent estimate for 2009 was 4.0% (95%CI 2.6–5.9%). The 298 HIV/TB patients were characterized by a male-to-female ratio of 2.1, by a median age of 38 years at TB diagnosis, and by 59% of the patients having a foreign origin, mainly from Subsahara Africa. We provide, to our knowledge, the first estimate of the HIV-prevalence in TB patients for Germany by joint evaluation of anonymous HIV and TB surveillance data sources. The identified level of HIV in TB patients approximates available surveillance data from neighbouring countries and indicates a non-negligible HIV/TB burden in Germany. Our estimation approach is valuable for epidemiological monitoring of HIV/TB within the current legal frameworks. PMID:23145087

Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

2017-11-01

In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loar, J.M.

2001-06-11

extrapolation an d development of new scaling models; (2) development of dose-response models for toxicity data presented in the literature; and (3) development of matrix-based population models that were coupled with dose-response models to provide realistic estimation of population-level effects for individual responses.« less

[Krigle estimation and its simulated sampling of Chilo suppressalis population density].

PubMed

Yuan, Zheming; Bai, Lianyang; Wang, Kuiwu; Hu, Xiangyue

2004-07-01

In order to draw up a rational sampling plan for the larvae population of Chilo suppressalis, an original population and its two derivative populations, random population and sequence population, were sampled and compared with random sampling, gap-range-random sampling, and a new systematic sampling integrated Krigle interpolation and random original position. As for the original population whose distribution was up to aggregative and dependence range in line direction was 115 cm (6.9 units), gap-range-random sampling in line direction was more precise than random sampling. Distinguishing the population pattern correctly is the key to get a better precision. Gap-range-random sampling and random sampling are fit for aggregated population and random population, respectively, but both of them are difficult to apply in practice. Therefore, a new systematic sampling named as Krigle sample (n = 441) was developed to estimate the density of partial sample (partial estimation, n = 441) and population (overall estimation, N = 1500). As for original population, the estimated precision of Krigle sample to partial sample and population was better than that of investigation sample. With the increase of the aggregation intensity of population, Krigel sample was more effective than investigation sample in both partial estimation and overall estimation in the appropriate sampling gap according to the dependence range.

Incidence of fractures among epilepsy patients: a population-based retrospective cohort study in the General Practice Research Database.

PubMed

Souverein, Patrick C; Webb, David J; Petri, Hans; Weil, John; Van Staa, Tjeerd P; Egberts, Toine

2005-02-01

To compare the incidence of various fractures in a cohort of patients with epilepsy with a reference cohort of patients not having epilepsy. Patients were included in the epilepsy cohort if they had at least one diagnosis of epilepsy in their medical history and had sufficient evidence of "active" epilepsy (use of antiepileptic drugs, diagnoses) after the practice was included in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Two reference patients were sampled for each patient with epilepsy from the same practice. Primary outcome was the occurrence of any fracture during follow-up. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate incidence density ratios (IDRs). The study population comprised 40,485 and 80,970 patients in the epilepsy and reference cohorts, respectively. The median duration of follow-up was approximately 3 years. The overall incidence rate in the epilepsy cohort was 241.9 per 10,000 person-years. This rate was about twice as high as that in reference cohort: age- and sex-adjusted IDR, 1.89 (95% CI, 1.81-1.98). When comparing IDRs among the different groups of fractures, the highest relative-risk estimate was found for hip and femur fractures (adjusted IDR, 2.79; 95% CI, 2.41-3.24). IDRs were consistently elevated across age and sex groups and across fracture subtypes. The overall risk of fractures was nearly twice as high among patients with epilepsy compared with the general population. The relative fracture risk was highest for hip and femur. Further study is necessary to elucidate whether this elevated risk is due to the disease, the use of antiepileptic drugs, or both.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling and model-based prediction of docetaxel-induced neutropenia in Japanese patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Fukae, Masato; Shiraishi, Yoshimasa; Hirota, Takeshi; Sasaki, Yuka; Yamahashi, Mika; Takayama, Koichi; Nakanishi, Yoichi; Ieiri, Ichiro

2016-11-01

Docetaxel is used to treat many cancers, and neutropenia is the dose-limiting factor for its clinical use. A population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model was introduced to predict the development of docetaxel-induced neutropenia in Japanese patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Forty-seven advanced or recurrent Japanese patients with NSCLC were enrolled. Patients received 50 or 60 mg/m 2 docetaxel as monotherapy, and blood samples for a PK analysis were collected up to 24 h after its infusion. Laboratory tests including absolute neutrophil count data and demographic information were used in population PK-PD modeling. The model was built by NONMEM 7.2 with a first-order conditional estimation using an interaction method. Based on the final model, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to assess the impact of covariates on and the predictability of neutropenia. A three-compartment model was employed to describe PK data, and the PK model adequately described the docetaxel concentrations observed. Serum albumin (ALB) was detected as a covariate of clearance (CL): CL (L/h) = 32.5 × (ALB/3.6) 0.965  × (WGHT/70) 3/4 . In population PK-PD modeling, a modified semi-mechanistic myelosuppression model was applied, and characterization of the time course of neutrophil counts was adequate. The covariate selection indicated that α1-acid glycoprotein (AAG) was a predictor of neutropenia. The model-based simulation also showed that ALB and AAG negatively correlated with the development of neutropenia and that the time course of neutrophil counts was predictable. The developed model may facilitate the prediction and care of docetaxel-induced neutropenia.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Vancomycin in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Okada, Akira; Kariya, Misato; Irie, Kei; Okada, Yutaka; Hiramoto, Nobuhiro; Hashimoto, Hisako; Kajioka, Ryosuke; Maruyama, Chika; Kasai, Hidefumi; Hamori, Mami; Nishimura, Asako; Shibata, Nobuhito; Fukushima, Keizo; Sugioka, Nobuyuki

2018-05-15

Vancomycin is a commonly used antimicrobial agent for patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Vancomycin has large inter- and intraindividual pharmacokinetic variability, which is mainly described by renal function; various studies have indicated that vancomycin pharmacokinetics are altered in special populations. However, little is known regarding vancomycin pharmacokinetics in patients undergoing allo-HSCT. Therefore, we aimed to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model of vancomycin in patients undergoing allo-HSCT for effective and safe antimicrobial therapy and to develop a vancomycin dosing nomogram for a vancomycin optimal-dosing strategy. In total, 285 observations from 95 patients undergoing allo-HSCT were available. The final PopPK parameter estimates were central volume of distribution (V1, L), 39.2; clearance (L/h), 4.25; peripheral volume of distribution (V2, L), 56.1; and intercompartmental clearance (L/h), 1.95. The developed vancomycin model revealed an increase in V1 and V2 compared with those in the general population that consisted of patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Moreover, serum creatinine was reduced because of an increase in the plasma fraction because of destruction of hematopoietic stem cells accompanying allo-HSCT pretreatment, suggesting that the Cockcroft-Gault equation-based creatinine clearance value was overestimated. To our knowledge, this is the first PopPK study to develop a dosing nomogram for vancomycin in patients undergoing allo-HSCT and was proven to be useful in optimizing the dosage and dosing interval of vancomycin in these patients. This strategy will provide more useful information for vancomycin therapy with an evidence-based dose adjustment. © 2018, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-30

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012... estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each... notice that the estimates of the voting age population for July 1, 2012, for each state and the District...

Mean population salt intake estimated from 24-h urine samples and spot urine samples: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Liping; Crino, Michelle; Wu, Jason H Y; Woodward, Mark; Barzi, Federica; Land, Mary-Anne; McLean, Rachael; Webster, Jacqui; Enkhtungalag, Batsaikhan; Neal, Bruce

2016-02-01

Estimating equations based on spot urine samples have been identified as a possible alternative approach to 24-h urine collections for determining mean population salt intake. This review compares estimates of mean population salt intake based upon spot and 24-h urine samples. We systematically searched for all studies that reported estimates of daily salt intake based upon both spot and 24-h urine samples for the same population. The associations between the two were quantified and compared overall and in subsets of studies. A total of 538 records were identified, 108 were assessed as full text and 29 were included. The included studies involved 10,414 participants from 34 countries and made 71 comparisons available for the primary analysis. Overall average population salt intake estimated from 24-h urine samples was 9.3 g/day compared with 9.0 g/day estimated from the spot urine samples. Estimates based upon spot urine samples had excellent sensitivity (97%) and specificity (100%) at classifying mean population salt intake as above or below the World Health Organization maximum target of 5 g/day. Compared with the 24-h samples, estimates based upon spot urine overestimated intake at lower levels of consumption and underestimated intake at higher levels of consumption. Estimates of mean population salt intake based upon spot urine samples can provide countries with a good indication of mean population salt intake and whether action on salt consumption is required. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2015. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Use of Pathogen-Specific Antibody Biomarkers to Estimate Waterborne Infections in Population-Based Settings

EPA Science Inventory

Purpose of reviewThis review discusses the utility of pathogen-specific antibody biomarkers for improving estimates of the population burden of waterborne infections, assessing the fraction of infections that can be prevented by specific water treatments, and understanding transm...

Patterns of Recurrence After Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy: A Population-Based Study of 2223 Consecutive Low- and Intermediate-Risk Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo, Andrea C.; Morris, W. James, E-mail: JMorris@bccancer.bc.ca; Pickles, Tom

Objectives: This study examined patterns of recurrence after low–dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB), estimated local recurrence rate and compared that rate to the estimated local recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods and Materials: A prospective database was maintained with clinical, dosimetric, and outcome data for all LDR-PB implantation procedures performed at our institution. From 1998 to 2008, 2223 patients with prostate cancer received LDR-PB without supplemental external beam radiation therapy. Patients who developed Phoenix-defined biochemical failure were reviewed for sites of relapse and investigations completed. Results: At a median follow-up of 5 years, 108 of 2223 patients (4.8%) developed biochemical relapse.more » In 1 additional patient, local relapse was found on transurethral prostate resection, but his prostate-specific antigen concentration was well short of triggering Phoenix-defined failure. Of the 109 patients with disease relapse, 18 of 2223 (0.8%) had a proven local recurrence, and 30 of 2223 (1.3%) had a proven distant recurrence. The remaining 61 of 2223 patients (2.7%) had unidentified sites of recurrence; of these, 57 patients (93%) had digital rectal examinations (DREs), 18 (30%) had post-treatment biopsies, 45 (74%) had bone scans, and 34 (56%) had computed tomography imaging of the abdomen and pelvis. If every biochemical failure were local, the local recurrence rate would be as high as 4.9%; however, by excluding those with proven distant failure and those with both a negative DRE and biopsy, we estimate that the local recurrence rate is 2.7% or less. Conclusions: In the context of limitations of the study design, our population-based analysis indicates that the local recurrence rate after LDR-PB is as low or lower than that after RP in our jurisdiction.« less

Estimating the cumulative effects of the nature-based tourism in a coastal dolphin population from southern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Jorge, Sergi; Louzao, Maite; Oro, Daniel; Pereira, Thalia; Corne, Chloe; Wijtten, Zeno; Gomes, Inês; Wambua, John; Christiansen, Fredrik

2017-06-01

Due to the growth of nature-based tourism worldwide, behavioural studies are needed to assess the impact of this industry on wildlife populations and understand their short-term effect. Tourism impact on dolphin populations remain poorly documented in developing countries. This study investigates the effects of nature-based tourism on the behaviour of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in southern Kenya. We used Markov chain models to estimate transition probabilities between behavioural states in the presence and absence of tourist boats, and assess the overall behavioural budgets. Based on these data and the tourism intensity in the area, we quantified the potential tourist boat disturbance over the period 2006-2013. Our results demonstrated that tourist boat interactions affected dolphins' behavioural budgets, with a significant decrease in the overall amount of time travelling and an increase in diving. The average duration of travelling and resting decreased significantly in the presence of boats. Although the cumulative tourism exposure was not significant for the dolphin population at their current levels, these impacts should be taken into consideration with the potential tourism growth in the area. This is particularly important if tourism reaches periods of high intensity, as we have shown that these periods could have a significant impact for the species, particularly where home-range and core areas are highly overlap by this activity. Understanding the effect of human disturbance variations from previous years may help to predict the consequences on dolphin populations, towards achieving a more ecological and economic sustainability of the activity.

Estimating population parameters for northern and southern breeding populations of Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestbeck, J.B.; Rusch, Donald H.; Samuel, Michael D.; Humburg, Dale D.; Sullivan, Brian D.

1998-01-01

Canada geese (Branta canadensis) have been managed largely as a migratory resource. In the 1960's, Canada goose flocks were restored to historic breeding ranges in the United States and southern Canada to enhance recreational opportunity for observation and harvest. These populations of southern breeding geese have rapidly expanded, increasing conflicts with social and economic interests and causing the Midwinter Waterfowl Survey to be less effective as a management tool to monitor migrant populations. Wildlife agencies need methods to control local, southern breeding geese that reduce conflicts while providing adequate protection to populations of northern breeding geese. New techniques have been developed using mark-resight data from neck-banded geese to estimate distribution and population size during the late summer, fall, and mid-winter. Survival and movement rates can be estimated over special early or late hunting seasons, traditional fall-winter hunting season, and nonharvest periods. Direct recovery rates can be estimated for special and traditional harvest periods and these recovery rates can be related to survival and movement rates. Changes in harvest regulations can be related to changes in recovery, survival, and movement rates for specific cohorts of Canada geese. These techniques can be used to monitor population status and determine more appropriate harvest strategies.

Hospitalization Among Patients with Sarcoidosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study 1987-2015.

PubMed

Ungprasert, Patompong; Crowson, Cynthia S; Achenbach, Sara J; Carmona, Eva M; Matteson, Eric L

2017-08-01

There is little information about healthcare utilization for sarcoidosis. This study examined need for hospitalization as a measure of healthcare burden in this disease. A cohort of Olmsted County, Minnesota residents diagnosed with sarcoidosis between January 1, 1976 and December 31, 2013 was identified using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Diagnosis was made based on individual medical record review. For each sarcoidosis subject, one sex- and age-matched comparator without sarcoidosis was randomly selected from the same population. Data on hospitalizations were retrieved electronically from billing data of the Mayo Clinic, the Olmsted Medical Center, and their affiliated hospitals. These data were available from 1987 to 2015. Subjects who died or emigrated from Olmsted County prior to 1987 were excluded. 332 incident cases of sarcoidosis and 342 comparators were included. Hospitalization rates were significantly higher among patients with sarcoidosis than comparators [rate ratio (RR) 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-1.52]. Analysis based on sex revealed a significantly increased rate among females (RR 1.60; 95% CI 1.40-1.82) but not among males (RR 1.06; 95% CI 0.91-1.25). The overall age- and sex-adjusted rates of hospitalization were stable from 1987 to 2015 for both cases and comparators. The average length of stay was similar (4.6 and 4.4 days for sarcoidosis and non-sarcoidosis hospitalizations, respectively, p = 0.87). In this population, patients with sarcoidosis had a significantly higher rate of hospitalization than patients without sarcoidosis, driven by higher rates in females.

Estimates of Smoking Before and During Pregnancy, and Smoking Cessation During Pregnancy: Comparing Two Population-Based Data Sources

PubMed Central

Dietz, Patricia M.; Farr, Sherry L.; D'Angelo, Denise V.; England, Lucinda J.

2013-01-01

Objectives We compared three measures of maternal smoking status—-prepregnancy, during pregnancy, and smoking cessation during pregnancy—between the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) questionnaire and the 2003 revised birth certificate (BC). Methods We analyzed data from 10,485 women with live births in eight states from the 2008 PRAMS survey, a confidential, anonymous survey administered in the postpartum period that is linked to select BC variables. We calculated self-reported prepregnancy and prenatal smoking (last trimester only) prevalence based on the BC, the PRAMS survey, and the two data sources combined, and the percentage of smoking cessation during pregnancy based on the BC and PRAMS survey. We used two-sided t-tests to compare BC and PRAMS estimates. Results Prepregnancy smoking prevalence estimates were 17.3% from the BC, 24.4% from PRAMS, and 25.4% on one or both data sources. Prenatal smoking prevalence estimates were 11.3% from the BC, 14.0% from PRAMS, and 15.2% on one or both data sources. The percentages of prepregnancy smokers who indicated that they quit smoking by the last trimester were 35.1% from the BC and 42.6% from PRAMS. The PRAMS estimates of prepregnancy and prenatal smoking, and smoking cessation during pregnancy were statistically higher than the corresponding BC estimates (t-tests, p<0.05). Conclusions PRAMS captured more women who smoked before and during the last trimester than the revised BC. States implementing PRAMS and the revised BC should consider information from both sources when developing population-based estimates of smoking before pregnancy and during the last trimester of pregnancy. PMID:23633733

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

Suicidal drug overdose in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus, a nationwide population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Tang, K T; Lin, C H; Chen, H H; Chen, Y H; Chen, D Y

2016-02-01

A four-fold increase of suicide mortality has been demonstrated in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Prior studies showed that the most common method of suicide attempts in SLE patients involves drug overdose. Therefore, we conducted a nationwide population-based case-control study to elucidate factors associated with drug overdose as suicide attempt in SLE patients. This study was based on the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. We identified all SLE patients from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Patients who had suicidal drug overdose (SDO) were selected as cases while age- and gender-matched patients who did not have SDO were selected as controls. The incidence rate of SDO in SLE patients was 291 cases per 100,000 person-years, higher than that in the general population (160 cases per 100,000 person-years). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, we observed that SDO was associated with psychiatric disorders such as depressive disorders (odds ratio: 8.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.60-12.48) and insomnia (odds ratio: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.73-4.25), and lower monthly income (odds ratios: 2.74 to 3.50) in SLE patients. SDO is associated with psychiatric disorders such as depressive disorders and insomnia, and lower monthly income in SLE patients. © The Author(s) 2015.

Hip fracture risk in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis: A population-based study using English and Danish data.

PubMed

Otete, Harmony; Deleuran, Thomas; Fleming, Kate M; Card, Tim; Aithal, Guru P; Jepsen, Peter; West, Joe

2018-04-17

Cirrhosis, the prevalence of which is increasing, is a risk factor for osteoporosis and fractures. However, little is known of the actual risk of hip fractures in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Using linked primary and secondary care data from the English and Danish nationwide registries, we quantified the hip fracture risk in two national cohorts of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. We followed 3,706 English and 17,779 Danish patients with a diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis, and we identified matched controls from the general populations. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) of hip fracture for patients vs. controls, adjusted for age, sex and comorbidity. The five-year hip fracture risk was raised both in England (2.9% vs. 0.8% for controls) and Denmark (4.6% vs. 0.9% for controls). With confounder adjustment, patients with cirrhosis had fivefold (adjusted HR 5.5; 95% CI 4.3-6.9), and 8.5-fold (adjusted HR 8.5; 95% CI 7.8-9.3) increased rates of hip fracture, in England and Denmark, respectively. This association between alcoholic cirrhosis and risk of hip fracture showed significant interaction with age (p <0.001), being stronger in younger age groups (under 45 years, HR 17.9 and 16.6 for English and Danish patients, respectively) than in patients over 75 years (HR 2.1 and 2.9, respectively). In patients with alcoholic cirrhosis, 30-day mortality following a hip fracture was 11.1% in England and 10.0% in Denmark, giving age-adjusted post-fracture mortality rate ratios of 2.8(95% CI 1.9-3.9) and 2.0(95% CI 1.5-2.7), respectively. Patients with alcoholic cirrhosis have a markedly increased risk of hip fracture and post-hip fracture mortality compared with the general population. These findings support the need for more effort towards fracture prevention in this population, to benefit individuals and reduce the societal burden. Alcoholic cirrhosis creates a large public health burden and is a risk factor for bone fractures. Based on data from England and

Estimating Renal Function in the Elderly Malaysian Patients Attending Medical Outpatient Clinic: A Comparison between Creatinine Based and Cystatin-C Based Equations.

PubMed

Jalalonmuhali, Maisarah; Elagel, Salma Mohamed Abouzriba; Tan, Maw Pin; Lim, Soo Kun; Ng, Kok Peng

2018-01-01

To assess the performance of different GFR estimating equations, test the diagnostic value of serum cystatin-C, and compare the applicability of cystatin-C based equation with serum creatinine based equation for estimating GFR (eGFR) in comparison with measured GFR in the elderly Malaysian patients. A cross-sectional study recruiting volunteered patients 65 years and older attending medical outpatient clinic. 51 chromium EDTA ( 51 Cr-EDTA) was used as measured GFR. The predictive capabilities of Cockcroft-Gault equation corrected for body surface area (CGBSA), four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (4-MDRD), and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations using serum creatinine (CKD-EPIcr) as well as serum cystatin-C (CKD-EPIcys) were calculated. A total of 40 patients, 77.5% male, with mean measured GFR 41.2 ± 18.9 ml/min/1.73 m 2 were enrolled. Mean bias was the smallest for 4-MDRD; meanwhile, CKD-EPIcr had the highest precision and accuracy with lower limit of agreement among other equations. CKD-EPIcys equation did not show any improvement in GFR estimation in comparison to CKD-EPIcr and MDRD. The CKD-EPIcr formula appears to be more accurate and correlates better with measured GFR in this cohort of elderly patients.

Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

Risk of Periodontal Disease in Patients With Asthma: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Shen, Te-Chun; Chang, Pei-Ying; Lin, Cheng-Li; Wei, Chang-Ching; Tu, Chih-Yen; Hsia, Te-Chun; Shih, Chuen-Ming; Hsu, Wu-Huei; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2017-08-01

Studies have reported an association between asthma and oral diseases, including periodontal diseases. The aim of this retrospective study is to investigate risk of periodontal diseases for patients with asthma. Using the claims data of National Health Insurance of Taiwan and patients without a history of periodontal diseases, 19,206 asthmatic patients, who were newly diagnosed from 2000 through 2010, were identified. For each case, four comparison individuals without history of asthma and periodontal disease were randomly selected from the general population and frequency matched (categorical matched) by sex, age, and year of diagnosis (n = 76,824). Both cohorts were followed to the end of 2011 to monitor occurrence of periodontal diseases. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of periodontal disease were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Overall incidence of periodontal diseases was 1.18-fold greater in the asthma cohort than in the comparison cohort (P <0.001). Patients with at least three emergency visits annually had an aHR of 55.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 50.6 to 61.7) for periodontal diseases compared with those with a mean of less than one visit. Patients with at least three admissions annually also had a similar aHR (51.8) for periodontal disease. In addition, asthmatic patients on inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) therapy had greater aHRs than non-users (aHR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.23). In the studied population, asthmatic patients are at an elevated risk of developing periodontal diseases. The risk is much greater for those with emergency medical demands or hospital admissions and those on ICS treatment.

Population pharmacokinetic (PK) analysis of laromustine, an emerging alkylating agent, in cancer patients.

PubMed

Nassar, Ala F; Wisnewski, Adam V; King, Ivan

2017-05-01

1. Alkylating agents are capable of introducing an alkyl group into nucleophilic sites on DNA or RNA through covalent bond. Laromustine is an active member of a relatively new class of sulfonylhydrazine prodrugs under development as antineoplastic alkylating agents, and displays significant single-agent activity. 2. This is the first report of the population pharmacokinetic analysis of laromustine, 106 patients, 66 with hematologic malignancies and 40 with solid tumors, participated in five clinical trials worldwide. Of these, 104 patients were included in the final NONMEM analysis. 3. The population estimates for total clearance (CL) and volume of distribution of the central compartment (V 1 ) were 96.3 L/h and 45.9 L, associated with high inter-patient variability of 52.9% and 79.8% and inter-occasion variability of 26.7% and 49.3%, respectively. The population estimates for Q and V 2 were 73.2 L/h and 29.9 L, and inter-patient variability in V 2 was 63.1%, respectively. 4. The estimate of V ss (75.8 L) exceeds total body water, indicating that laromustine is distributed to tissues. The half-life is short, less than 1 h, reflecting rapid clearance. Population PK analysis showed laromustine pharmacokinetics to be independent of dose and organ function with no effect on subsequent dosing cycles.

Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

Treesearch

M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

2013-01-01

Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

Estimating animal population density using passive acoustics.

PubMed

Marques, Tiago A; Thomas, Len; Martin, Stephen W; Mellinger, David K; Ward, Jessica A; Moretti, David J; Harris, Danielle; Tyack, Peter L

2013-05-01

Reliable estimation of the size or density of wild animal populations is very important for effective wildlife management, conservation and ecology. Currently, the most widely used methods for obtaining such estimates involve either sighting animals from transect lines or some form of capture-recapture on marked or uniquely identifiable individuals. However, many species are difficult to sight, and cannot be easily marked or recaptured. Some of these species produce readily identifiable sounds, providing an opportunity to use passive acoustic data to estimate animal density. In addition, even for species for which other visually based methods are feasible, passive acoustic methods offer the potential for greater detection ranges in some environments (e.g. underwater or in dense forest), and hence potentially better precision. Automated data collection means that surveys can take place at times and in places where it would be too expensive or dangerous to send human observers. Here, we present an overview of animal density estimation using passive acoustic data, a relatively new and fast-developing field. We review the types of data and methodological approaches currently available to researchers and we provide a framework for acoustics-based density estimation, illustrated with examples from real-world case studies. We mention moving sensor platforms (e.g. towed acoustics), but then focus on methods involving sensors at fixed locations, particularly hydrophones to survey marine mammals, as acoustic-based density estimation research to date has been concentrated in this area. Primary among these are methods based on distance sampling and spatially explicit capture-recapture. The methods are also applicable to other aquatic and terrestrial sound-producing taxa. We conclude that, despite being in its infancy, density estimation based on passive acoustic data likely will become an important method for surveying a number of diverse taxa, such as sea mammals, fish, birds

Estimating animal population density using passive acoustics

PubMed Central

Marques, Tiago A; Thomas, Len; Martin, Stephen W; Mellinger, David K; Ward, Jessica A; Moretti, David J; Harris, Danielle; Tyack, Peter L

2013-01-01

Reliable estimation of the size or density of wild animal populations is very important for effective wildlife management, conservation and ecology. Currently, the most widely used methods for obtaining such estimates involve either sighting animals from transect lines or some form of capture-recapture on marked or uniquely identifiable individuals. However, many species are difficult to sight, and cannot be easily marked or recaptured. Some of these species produce readily identifiable sounds, providing an opportunity to use passive acoustic data to estimate animal density. In addition, even for species for which other visually based methods are feasible, passive acoustic methods offer the potential for greater detection ranges in some environments (e.g. underwater or in dense forest), and hence potentially better precision. Automated data collection means that surveys can take place at times and in places where it would be too expensive or dangerous to send human observers. Here, we present an overview of animal density estimation using passive acoustic data, a relatively new and fast-developing field. We review the types of data and methodological approaches currently available to researchers and we provide a framework for acoustics-based density estimation, illustrated with examples from real-world case studies. We mention moving sensor platforms (e.g. towed acoustics), but then focus on methods involving sensors at fixed locations, particularly hydrophones to survey marine mammals, as acoustic-based density estimation research to date has been concentrated in this area. Primary among these are methods based on distance sampling and spatially explicit capture-recapture. The methods are also applicable to other aquatic and terrestrial sound-producing taxa. We conclude that, despite being in its infancy, density estimation based on passive acoustic data likely will become an important method for surveying a number of diverse taxa, such as sea mammals, fish, birds

Population-based age group specific annual incidence rates of symptomatic age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Saari, Jukka M

2014-01-01

To study the population-based annual incidence rates of exudative, dry and all cases of symptomatic age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in different age and sex groups. This is a one year, prospective, population-based study on all consecutive new patients with AMD in the hospital district of Central Finland. The diagnosis was confirmed in all patients with slit lamp biomicroscopy, optical coherence tomography (OCT) using a Spectralis HRA + OCT device, and the Heidelberg Eye Explorer 1.6.2.0 program. Fluorescein angiograms were taken when needed. The population-based annual incidence rates of all cases of symptomatic AMD increased from 0.03% (95% CI, 0.01-0.05%) in the age group 50-59 years to 0.82% (95% CI, 0.55-1.09%) in the age group 85-89 years and were 0.2% (95% CI, 0.17-0.24%) in exudative, 0.11% (95% CI, 0.09-0.14%) in dry, and 0.32% (95% CI, 0.28-0.36%) in all cases of AMD in the age group 60 years and older. During the next 20 years in Central Finland the population-based annual incidence rates can be estimated to increase to 0.27% (95% CI, 0.24-0.30%) in exudative, to 0.13% (95% CI, 0.11-0.15%) in dry, and to 0.41% (95% CI, 0.37-0.45%) in all cases of AMD in the age group 60 years and older. The population-based annual incidence of AMD did not show statistically significant differences between males and females (p>0.1). The population-based age-group specific annual incidence rates of symptomatic AMD of this study may help to plan health care provision for patients of AMD.

Patient Navigation for Comprehensive Cancer Screening in High-Risk Patients Using a Population-Based Health Information Technology System: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Percac-Lima, Sanja; Ashburner, Jeffrey M; Zai, Adrian H; Chang, Yuchiao; Oo, Sarah A; Guimaraes, Erica; Atlas, Steven J

2016-07-01

Patient navigation (PN) to improve cancer screening in low-income and racial/ethnic minority populations usually focuses on navigating for single cancers in community health center settings. We evaluated PN for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using a population-based information technology (IT) system within a primary care network. Randomized clinical trial conducted from April 2014 to December 2014 in 18 practices in an academic primary care network. All patients eligible and overdue for cancer screening were identified and managed using a population-based IT system. Those at high risk for nonadherence with completing screening were identified using an electronic algorithm (language spoken, number of overdue tests, no-show visit history), and randomized to a PN intervention (n = 792) or usual care (n = 820). Navigators used the IT system to track patients, contact them, and provide intense outreach to help them complete cancer screening. Mean cancer screening test completion rate over 8-month trial for each eligible patient, with all overdue cancer screening tests combined using linear regression models. Secondary outcomes included the proportion of patients completing any and each overdue cancer screening test. Among 1612 patients (673 men and 975 women; median age, 57 years), baseline patient characteristics were similar among randomized groups. Of 792 intervention patients, patient navigators were unable to reach 151 (19%), deferred 246 (38%) (eg, patient declined, competing comorbidity), and navigated 202 (32%). The mean proportion of patients who were up to date with screening among all overdue screening examinations was higher in the intervention vs the control group for all cancers combined (10.2% vs 6.8%; 95% CI [for the difference], 1.5%-5.2%; P < .001), and for breast (14.7% vs 11.0%; 95% CI, 0.2%-7.3%; P = .04), cervical (11.1% vs 5.7%; 95% CI, 0.8%-5.2%; P = .002), and colon (7.6% vs 4.6%; 95% CI, 0.8%-5.2%; P�

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

Health Care Utilization and Expenditures of Patients with Diabetes Comorbid with Depression Disorder: A National Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Huang, Chun-Jen; Hsieh, Hui-Min; Chiu, Herng-Chia; Wang, Peng-Wei; Lee, Mei-Hsuan; Li, Chih-Yi; Lin, Ching-Hua

2017-11-01

The study investigated to compare health care utilization and expenditures between diabetic patients with and without depression in Taiwan. Health care utilization and expenditure among diabetic patients with and without depression disorder during 2000 and 2004 were examined using Taiwan's population-based National Health Insurance claims database. Health care utilization included outpatient visits and the use of inpatient services, and health expenditures were outpatient, inpatient, and total medical expenditures. Moreover, general estimation equation models were used for analyzing the factors associated with outpatient visits and expenditures. Multiple logistic regression analysis was applied for identifying the factors associated with hospitalization. The average annual outpatient visits and annual total medical expenditures in the study period were 44.23-52.20; NT$87,496-133,077 and 30.75-32.92; NT$64,411-80,955 for diabetic patients with and without depression. After adjustment for covariates, our results revealed that gender and complication were associated with out-patient visits. Moreover, the time factor was associated with the total medical expenditure, and residential urbanization and complication factors were associated with hospitalization. Health care utilization and expenditures for diabetic patients with depression were significantly higher than those without depression. Sex, complications, time, and urbanization are the factors associated with health care utilization and expenditures.

A Coalescent-Based Estimator of Admixture From DNA Sequences

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinliang

2006-01-01

A variety of estimators have been developed to use genetic marker information in inferring the admixture proportions (parental contributions) of a hybrid population. The majority of these estimators used allele frequency data, ignored molecular information that is available in markers such as microsatellites and DNA sequences, and assumed that mutations are absent since the admixture event. As a result, these estimators may fail to deliver an estimate or give rather poor estimates when admixture is ancient and thus mutations are not negligible. A previous molecular estimator based its inference of admixture proportions on the average coalescent times between pairs of genes taken from within and between populations. In this article I propose an estimator that considers the entire genealogy of all of the sampled genes and infers admixture proportions from the numbers of segregating sites in DNA sequence samples. By considering the genealogy of all sequences rather than pairs of sequences, this new estimator also allows the joint estimation of other interesting parameters in the admixture model, such as admixture time, divergence time, population size, and mutation rate. Comparative analyses of simulated data indicate that the new coalescent estimator generally yields better estimates of admixture proportions than the previous molecular estimator, especially when the parental populations are not highly differentiated. It also gives reasonably accurate estimates of other admixture parameters. A human mtDNA sequence data set was analyzed to demonstrate the method, and the analysis results are discussed and compared with those from previous studies. PMID:16624918

A Population Pharmacokinetic Model for 51Cr EDTA to Estimate Renal Function.

PubMed

Kuan, Isabelle H S; Duffull, Stephen B; Putt, Tracey L; Schollum, John B W; Walker, Robert J; Wright, Daniel F B

2017-06-01

51 Cr EDTA clearance (CL) from plasma is used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We propose that current methods for analysing the raw 51 Cr EDTA measurements over-simplifies the disposition of 51 Cr EDTA and therefore could produce biased GFR estimates. The aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for 51 Cr EDTA disposition and to compare model-predicted GFR to other methods of estimating renal function. Data from 40 individuals who received ~7.4 MBq of 51 Cr EDTA, as an intravenous bolus, were available for analysis. Plasma radioactivity (counts/min) was measured from timed collection points at 2, 4, 6 and 24 h after the dose. A population analysis was conducted using NONMEM ® version 7.2. Model-predicted GFR was compared with other methods for estimating renal function using mean prediction error (MPE). A two-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order elimination best fit the data. Compared with the model predictions, creatinine CL from 24 h urine data was unbiased. The commonly used 'slope-intercept' method for estimating isotopic GFR was positively biased compared with the model (MPE 15.5 mL/min/1.73 m 2 [95% confidence interval {CI} 8.9-22.2]. The Cockcroft Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-Epi) equations led to negatively biased GFR estimates (MPE -19.0 [95% CI -25.4 to -12.7], -20.1 [95% CI -27.2 to -13.1] and -16.5 [95% CI -22.2 to -10.1] mL/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively). The biased GFR estimates were most obvious in patients with relatively normal renal function. This may lead to inaccurate dosing in patients who are receiving drugs with a narrow therapeutic range where dosing is adjusted according to GFR estimates (e.g. carboplatin). The study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), number: ACTRN 12611000035921.

Population Estimation Using a 3D City Model: A Multi-Scale Country-Wide Study in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Arroyo Ohori, Ken; Ledoux, Hugo; Peters, Ravi; Stoter, Jantien

2016-01-01

The remote estimation of a region’s population has for decades been a key application of geographic information science in demography. Most studies have used 2D data (maps, satellite imagery) to estimate population avoiding field surveys and questionnaires. As the availability of semantic 3D city models is constantly increasing, we investigate to what extent they can be used for the same purpose. Based on the assumption that housing space is a proxy for the number of its residents, we use two methods to estimate the population with 3D city models in two directions: (1) disaggregation (areal interpolation) to estimate the population of small administrative entities (e.g. neighbourhoods) from that of larger ones (e.g. municipalities); and (2) a statistical modelling approach to estimate the population of large entities from a sample composed of their smaller ones (e.g. one acquired by a government register). Starting from a complete Dutch census dataset at the neighbourhood level and a 3D model of all 9.9 million buildings in the Netherlands, we compare the population estimates obtained by both methods with the actual population as reported in the census, and use it to evaluate the quality that can be achieved by estimations at different administrative levels. We also analyse how the volume-based estimation enabled by 3D city models fares in comparison to 2D methods using building footprints and floor areas, as well as how it is affected by different levels of semantic detail in a 3D city model. We conclude that 3D city models are useful for estimations of large areas (e.g. for a country), and that the 3D approach has clear advantages over the 2D approach. PMID:27254151

Estimated prevalence of dementia based on analysis of drug databases in the Region of Madrid (Spain).

PubMed

de Hoyos-Alonso, M C; Bonis, J; Tapias-Merino, E; Castell, M V; Otero, A

2016-01-01

The progressive rise in dementia prevalence increases the need for rapid methods that complement population-based prevalence studies. To estimate the prevalence of dementia in the population aged 65 and older based on use of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine. Descriptive study of use and prescription of cholinesterase inhibitors and/or memantine in 2011 according to 2 databases: Farm@drid (pharmacy billing records for the Region of Madrid) and BIFAP (database for pharmacoepidemiology research in primary care, with diagnosis and prescription records). We tested the comparability of drug use results from each database using the chi-square test and prevalence ratios. The prevalence of dementia in Madrid was estimated based on the dose per 100 inhabitants/day, adjusting the result for data obtained from BIFAP on combination treatment in the general population (0.37%) and the percentage of dementia patients undergoing treatment (41.13%). Cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine were taken by 2.08% and 0.72% of Madrid residents aged 65 and older was respectively. Both databases displayed similar results for use of these drugs. The estimated prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 and older is 5.91% (95% CI%, 5.85-5.95) (52 287 people), and it is higher in women (7.16%) than in men (4.00%). The estimated prevalence of dementia is similar to that found in population-based studies. Analysing consumption of specific dementia drugs can be a reliable and inexpensive means of updating prevalence data periodically and helping rationalise healthcare resources. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

An empirical model for estimating annual consumption by freshwater fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

2005-01-01

Population consumption is an important process linking predator populations to their prey resources. Simple tools are needed to enable fisheries managers to estimate population consumption. We assembled 74 individual estimates of annual consumption by freshwater fish populations and their mean annual population size, 41 of which also included estimates of mean annual biomass. The data set included 14 freshwater fish species from 10 different bodies of water. From this data set we developed two simple linear regression models predicting annual population consumption. Log-transformed population size explained 94% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. Log-transformed biomass explained 98% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. We quantified the accuracy of our regressions and three alternative consumption models as the mean percent difference from observed (bioenergetics-derived) estimates in a test data set. Predictions from our population-size regression matched observed consumption estimates poorly (mean percent difference = 222%). Predictions from our biomass regression matched observed consumption reasonably well (mean percent difference = 24%). The biomass regression was superior to an alternative model, similar in complexity, and comparable to two alternative models that were more complex and difficult to apply. Our biomass regression model, log10(consumption) = 0.5442 + 0.9962??log10(biomass), will be a useful tool for fishery managers, enabling them to make reasonably accurate annual population consumption predictions from mean annual biomass estimates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Population-based risk of complications following transthoracic needle lung biopsy of a pulmonary nodule

PubMed Central

Wiener, Renda Soylemez; Schwartz, Lisa M.; Woloshin, Steven; Welch, H. Gilbert

2011-01-01

Background Because pulmonary nodules are found in up to 25% of patients undergoing chest computed tomography, the question of whether to biopsy is becoming increasingly common. Data on complications following transthoracic needle lung biopsy are limited to case series from selected institutions. Objective To determine population-based estimates of risks of complications following transthoracic needle biopsy of a pulmonary nodule. Design Cross-sectional analysis. Setting The 2006 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project’s State Ambulatory Surgery Databases and State Inpatient Databases for California, Florida, Michigan, and New York. Patients 15,865 adults who underwent transthoracic needle biopsy of a pulmonary nodule. Measurements Percent of biopsies complicated by hemorrhage, any pneumothorax, and pneumothorax requiring chest tube, and adjusted odds ratios for these complications associated with various biopsy characteristics, calculated using multivariable population-averaged generalized estimating equations. Results Although hemorrhage was rare, complicating 1.0% (95% CI 0.9-1.2%) of biopsies, 17.8% (95% CI 11.8-23.8%) of patients with hemorrhage required a blood transfusion. By contrast, the risk of any pneumothorax was 15.0% (95% CI 14.0-16.0%), and 6.6% (95% CI 6.0-7.2%) of all biopsies resulted in a pneumothorax requiring chest tube. Compared to patients without complications, those who experienced hemorrhage or pneumothorax requiring chest tube had longer lengths of stay (p<0.001) and were more likely to develop respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation (p=0.02). Patients aged 60-69 years (as opposed to younger or older patients), smokers, and those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had higher risk of complications. Limitations Estimated risks may be inaccurate if coding of complications is incomplete. The databases analyzed contain little clinical detail (e.g., nodule characteristics, biopsy pathology) and cannot determine whether

Real world heart failure epidemiology and outcome: A population-based analysis of 88,195 patients

PubMed Central

Vela, Emili; Clèries, Montse; Bustins, Montse; Cainzos-Achirica, Miguel; Enjuanes, Cristina; Moliner, Pedro; Ruiz, Sonia; Verdú-Rotellar, José María; Comín-Colet, Josep

2017-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) is frequent and its prevalence is increasing. We aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic features of HF patients, the 1-year follow-up outcomes and the independent predictors of those outcomes at a population level. Methods and results Population-based longitudinal study including all prevalent HF cases in Catalonia (Spain) on December 31st, 2012. Patients were divided in 3 groups: patients without a previous HF hospitalization, patients with a remote (>1 year) HF hospitalization and patients with a recent (<1 year) HF admission. We analyzed 1year all-cause and HF hospitalizations, and all-cause mortality. Logistic regression was used to identify the independent predictors of each of those outcomes. A total of 88,195 patients were included. Mean age was 77 years, 55% were women. Comorbidities were frequent. Fourteen percent of patients had never been hospitalized, 71% had a remote HF hospitalization and 15% a recent hospitalization. At 1-year follow-up, all-cause and HF hospitalization were 53% and 8.8%, respectively. One-year all-cause mortality rate was 14%, and was higher in patients with a recent HF hospitalization (24%). The presence of diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation or chronic kidney disease was independently associated with all-cause and HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality. Hospital admissions and emergency department visits the previous year were also found to be independently associated with the three study outcomes. Conclusions Outcomes are different depending on the HF population studied. Some comorbidity, an all-cause hospitalization or emergency department visit the previous year were associated with a worse outcome. PMID:28235067

Real world heart failure epidemiology and outcome: A population-based analysis of 88,195 patients.

PubMed

Farré, Núria; Vela, Emili; Clèries, Montse; Bustins, Montse; Cainzos-Achirica, Miguel; Enjuanes, Cristina; Moliner, Pedro; Ruiz, Sonia; Verdú-Rotellar, José María; Comín-Colet, Josep

2017-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is frequent and its prevalence is increasing. We aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic features of HF patients, the 1-year follow-up outcomes and the independent predictors of those outcomes at a population level. Population-based longitudinal study including all prevalent HF cases in Catalonia (Spain) on December 31st, 2012. Patients were divided in 3 groups: patients without a previous HF hospitalization, patients with a remote (>1 year) HF hospitalization and patients with a recent (<1 year) HF admission. We analyzed 1year all-cause and HF hospitalizations, and all-cause mortality. Logistic regression was used to identify the independent predictors of each of those outcomes. A total of 88,195 patients were included. Mean age was 77 years, 55% were women. Comorbidities were frequent. Fourteen percent of patients had never been hospitalized, 71% had a remote HF hospitalization and 15% a recent hospitalization. At 1-year follow-up, all-cause and HF hospitalization were 53% and 8.8%, respectively. One-year all-cause mortality rate was 14%, and was higher in patients with a recent HF hospitalization (24%). The presence of diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation or chronic kidney disease was independently associated with all-cause and HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality. Hospital admissions and emergency department visits the previous year were also found to be independently associated with the three study outcomes. Outcomes are different depending on the HF population studied. Some comorbidity, an all-cause hospitalization or emergency department visit the previous year were associated with a worse outcome.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Real-time estimation system for seismic-intensity exposed-population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoi, S.; Nakamura, H.; Kunugi, T.; Suzuki, W.; Fujiwara, H.

2013-12-01

For an appropriate first-action to an earthquake, risk (damage) information evaluated in real-time are important as well as hazard (ground motion) information. To meet this need, we are developing real-time estimation system (J-RISQ) for exposed population and earthquake damage on buildings. We plan to open the web page of estimated exposed population to the public from autumn. When an earthquake occurs, seismic intensities are calculated at each observation station and sent to the DMC (Data Management Center) in different timing. For rapid estimation, the system does not wait for the data from all the stations but begins the first estimation when the number of the stations observing the seismic intensity of 2.5 or larger exceeds the threshold amount. Estimations are updated several times using all the available data at that moment. Spatial distribution of seismic intensity in 250 m meshes is estimated by the site amplification factor of surface layers and the observed data. By using this intensity distribution, the exposed population is estimated using population data of each mesh. The exposed populations for municipalities and prefectures are estimated by summing-up the exposures of included meshes for the area and are appropriately rounded taking estimation precision into consideration. The estimated intensities for major cities are shown by the histograms, which indicate the variation of the estimated values in the city together with the observed maximum intensity. The variation is mainly caused by the difference of the site amplification factors. The intensities estimated for meshes with large amplification factor are sometimes larger than the maximum value observed in the city. The estimated results are seen on the web site just after the earthquake. The results of the past earthquakes can be easily searched by keywords such as date, magnitudes, seismic intensities and source areas. The summary of the results in the one-page report of Portable Document Format

Exposure estimate for FD&C colour additives for the US population.

PubMed

Doell, Diana L; Folmer, Daniel E; Lee, Hyoung S; Butts, Kyla M; Carberry, Susan E

2016-05-01

Dietary exposures to the seven food, drug, and cosmetic (FD&C) colour additives that are approved for general use in food in the United States were estimated for the US population (aged 2 years and older), children (aged 2-5 years) and teenage boys (aged 13-18 years) based on analytical levels of the FD&C colour additives in foods. Approximately 600 foods were chosen for analysis, based on a survey of product labels, for the levels of FD&C colour additives. Dietary exposure was estimated using both 2-day food consumption data from the combined 2007-10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and 10-14-day food consumption data from the 2007-10 NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends - Nutrient Intake Database (NPD NET-NID). Dietary exposure was estimated at the mean and 90th percentile using three different exposure scenarios: low exposure, average exposure and high exposure, to account for the range in the amount of each FD&C colour additive for a given food. For all populations and all exposure scenarios, the highest cumulative eaters-only exposures in food were determined for FD&C Red No. 40, FD&C Yellow No. 5 and FD&C Yellow No. 6. In addition, the eaters-only exposure was estimated for individual food categories in order to determine which food categories contributed the most to the exposure for each FD&C colour additive. Breakfast Cereal, Juice Drinks, Soft Drinks, and Frozen Dairy Desserts/Sherbet (also referred to as Ice Cream, Frozen Yogurt, Sherbet (including Bars, Sticks, Sandwiches)) were the major contributing food categories to exposure for multiple FD&C colour additives for all three populations.

Estimating multi-factor cumulative watershed effects on fish populations with an individual-based model

Treesearch

Bret C. Harvey; Steven F. Railsback

2007-01-01

While the concept of cumulative effects is prominent in legislation governing environmental management, the ability to estimate cumulative effects remains limited. One reason for this limitation is that important natural resources such as fish populations may exhibit complex responses to changes in environmental conditions, particularly to alteration of multiple...

Estimating the breeding population of long-billed curlew in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Skagen, S.K.

2007-01-01

Determining population size and long-term trends in population size for species of high concern is a priority of international, national, and regional conservation plans. Long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) are a species of special concern in North America due to apparent declines in their population. Because long-billed curlews are not adequately monitored by existing programs, we undertook a 2-year study with the goals of 1) determining present long-billed curlew distribution and breeding population size in the United States and 2) providing recommendations for a long-term long-billed curlew monitoring protocol. We selected a stratified random sample of survey routes in 16 western states for sampling in 2004 and 2005, and we analyzed count data from these routes to estimate detection probabilities and abundance. In addition, we evaluated habitat along roadsides to determine how well roadsides represented habitat throughout the sampling units. We estimated there were 164,515 (SE = 42,047) breeding long-billed curlews in 2004, and 109,533 (SE = 31,060) breeding individuals in 2005. These estimates far exceed currently accepted estimates based on expert opinion. We found that habitat along roadsides was representative of long-billed curlew habitat in general. We make recommendations for improving sampling methodology, and we present power curves to provide guidance on minimum sample sizes required to detect trends in abundance.

Incidence of utilization- and symptom-defined COPD exacerbations in hospital- and population-recruited patients.

PubMed

Erdal, Marta; Johannessen, Ane; Eagan, Tomas Mikal; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Grønseth, Rune

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were to estimate the impact of recruitment source and outcome definition on the incidence of acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) and explore possible predictors of AECOPD. During a 1-year follow-up, we performed a baseline visit and four telephone interviews of 81 COPD patients and 132 controls recruited from a population-based survey and 205 hospital-recruited COPD patients. Both a definition based on health care utilization and a symptom-based definition of AECOPD were applied. For multivariate analyses, we chose a negative binomial regression model. COPD patients from the population- and hospital-based samples experienced on average 0.4 utilization-defined and 2.9 symptom-defined versus 1.0 and 5.9 annual exacerbations, respectively. The incidence rate ratios for utilization-defined AECOPD were 2.45 (95% CI 1.22-4.95), 3.43 (95% CI 1.59-7.38), and 5.67 (95% CI 2.58-12.48) with Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung Disease spirometric stages II, III, and IV, respectively. The corresponding incidence rate ratios for the symptom-based definition were 3.08 (95% CI 1.96-4.84), 3.45 (95% CI 1.92-6.18), and 4.00 (95% CI 2.09-7.66). Maintenance therapy (regular long-acting muscarinic antagonists, long-acting beta-2 agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, or theophylline) also increased the risk of AECOPD with both exacerbation definitions (incidence rate ratios 1.65 and 1.73, respectively). The risk of AECOPD was 59%-78% higher in the hospital sample than in the population sample. If externally valid conclusions are to be made regarding incidence and predictors of AECOPD, studies should be based on general population samples or adjustments should be made on account of a likely higher incidence in other samples. Likewise, the effect of different AECOPD definitions should be taken into consideration.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to

Temporal trends in stroke incidence in South Asian, Chinese and white patients: A population based analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Nadia A; McAlister, Finlay A; Pilote, Louise; Palepu, Anita; Quan, Hude; Hill, Michael D; Fang, Jiming; Kapral, Moira K

2017-01-01

Little is known about potential ethnic differences in stroke incidence. We compared incidence and time trends of ischemic stroke and primary intracerebral hemorrhage in South Asian, Chinese and white persons in a population-based study. Population based census and administrative data analysis in the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia, Canada using validated ICD 9/ICD 10 coding for acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (1997-2010). There were 3290 South Asians, 4444 Chinese and 160944 white patients with acute ischemic stroke and 535 South Asian, 1376 Chinese and 21842 white patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. South Asians were younger than whites at onset of stroke (70 vs. 74 years for ischemic and 67 vs. 71 years for hemorrhagic stroke). Age and sex adjusted ischemic stroke incidence in 2010 was 43% lower in Chinese and 63% lower in South Asian than in White patients. Age and sex adjusted intracerebral hemorrhage incidence was 18% higher in Chinese patients, and 66% lower in South Asian relative to white patients. Stroke incidence declined in all ethnic groups (relative reduction 69% in South Asians, 25% in Chinese, and 34% in white patients for ischemic stroke and for intracerebral hemorrhage, 79% for South Asians, 51% for Chinese and 30% in white patients). Although stroke rates declined across all ethnic groups, these rates differed significantly by ethnicity. Further study is needed to understand mechanisms underlying the higher ischemic stroke incidence in white patients and intracerebral hemorrhage in Chinese patients.

Population pharmacokinetics of levofloxacin in Korean patients.

PubMed

Kiem, Sungmin; Ryu, Sung-Mun; Lee, Yun-Mi; Schentag, Jerome J; Kim, Yang-Wook; Kim, Hyeon-Kuk; Jang, Hang-Jae; Joo, Yong-Don; Jin, Kyubok; Shin, Jae-Gook; Ghim, Jong-Lyul

2016-08-01

Levofloxacin (LVFX) has different effects depending on the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)/minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) ratio. While AUC can be expressed as dose/clearance (CL), we measured serial concentrations of LVFX in Koreans and tried to set a Korean-specific equation, estimating the CL of the antibiotic. In total, 38 patients, aged 18-87 years, received once daily intravenous LVFX doses of 500 mg or 250 mg, depending on their renal function. Four plasma samples were obtained according to a D optimal sampling design. The population pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters of LVFX were estimated using non-linear mixed-effect modeling (NONMEM, ver. 7.2). The CL of LVFX was dependent on creatinine clearance (CLCR) as a covariate. The mean population PK parameters of LVFX in Koreans were as follows: CL (l/hour) = 6.19 ×  (CLCR/75)(1.32). The CL of LVFX in Koreans is expected to be lower than that in Western people.

Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations.

PubMed

Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Cook, Gary A; McElduff, Patrick; Havely, Daniel; Edwards, Richard; Heller, Richard F

2004-05-24

The assessment of the impact of healthcare interventions may help commissioners of healthcare services to make optimal decisions. This can be particularly the case if the impact assessment relates to specific patient populations and uses timely local data. We examined the potential impact on readmissions and mortality of specialist heart failure services capable of delivering treatments such as b-blockers and Nurse-Led Educational Intervention (N-LEI). Statistical modelling of prevented or postponed events among previously hospitalised patients, using estimates of: treatment uptake and contraindications (based on local audit data); treatment effectiveness and intolerance (based on literature); and annual number of hospitalization per patient and annual risk of death (based on routine data). Optimal treatment uptake among eligible but untreated patients would over one year prevent or postpone 11% of all expected readmissions and 18% of all expected deaths for spironolactone, 13% of all expected readmisisons and 22% of all expected deaths for b-blockers (carvedilol) and 20% of all expected readmissions and an uncertain number of deaths for N-LEI. Optimal combined treatment uptake for all three interventions during one year among all eligible but untreated patients would prevent or postpone 37% of all expected readmissions and a minimum of 36% of all expected deaths. In a population of previously hospitalised patients with low previous uptake of b-blockers and no uptake of N-LEI, optimal combined uptake of interventions through specialist heart failure services can potentially help prevent or postpone approximately four times as many readmissions and a minimum of twice as many deaths compared with simply optimising uptake of spironolactone (not necessarily requiring specialist services). Examination of the impact of different heart failure interventions can inform rational planning of relevant healthcare services.

Surgical treatment of malrotation after infancy: a population-based study.

PubMed

Malek, Marcus M; Burd, Randall S

2005-01-01

Because malrotation most commonly presents in infants, treatment recommendations for older children (>1 year) have been based on data obtained from small case series. The purpose of this study was to use a large national database to determine the clinical significance of older children presenting with malrotation to develop treatment recommendations for this group. Records of children undergoing a Ladd's procedure were identified in the Kids' Inpatient Database, an administrative database that contains all pediatric discharges from 27 states during 2000. Patient characteristics, associated diagnoses, operations performed, and mortality were evaluated. Discharge weighting was used to obtain a national estimate of the number of children older than 1 year treated for malrotation. Two hundred nineteen older children (>1 and <18 years) undergoing a Ladd's procedure were identified in the database. One hundred sixty-four (75%) of these patients were admitted for treatment of malrotation, whereas most of the remaining 55 patients (25%) were admitted for another diagnosis and underwent a Ladd's procedure incidental to another abdominal operation. Seventy-five patients underwent a Ladd's procedure during an emergency admission. Thirty-one patients had volvulus or intestinal ischemia, 7 underwent intestinal resection, and 1 patient died. Based on case weightings, it was estimated that 362 older children underwent a Ladd's procedure for symptoms related to malrotation in 2000 in the United States (5.3 cases per million population). These findings provide support for performing a Ladd's procedure in older children with incidentally found malrotation to prevent the rare but potentially devastating complications of this anomaly.

Development and Implementation of Team-Based Panel Management Tools: Filling the Gap between Patient and Population Information Systems.

PubMed

Watts, Brook; Lawrence, Renée H; Drawz, Paul; Carter, Cameron; Shumaker, Amy Hirsch; Kern, Elizabeth F

2016-08-01

Effective team-based models of care, such as the Patient-Centered Medical Home, require electronic tools to support proactive population management strategies that emphasize care coordination and quality improvement. Despite the spread of electronic health records (EHRs) and vendors marketing population health tools, clinical practices still may lack the ability to have: (1) local control over types of data collected/reports generated, (2) timely data (eg, up-to-date data, not several months old), and accordingly (3) the ability to efficiently monitor and improve patient outcomes. This article describes a quality improvement project at the hospital system level to develop and implement a flexible panel management (PM) tool to improve care of subpopulations of patients (eg, panels of patients with diabetes) by clinical teams. An in-depth case analysis approach is used to explore barriers and facilitators in building a PM registry tool for team-based management needs using standard data elements (eg, laboratory values, pharmacy records) found in EHRs. Also described are factors that may contribute to sustainability; to date the tool has been adapted to 6 disease-focused subpopulations encompassing more than 200,000 patients. Two key lessons emerged from this initiative: (1) though challenging, team-based clinical end users and information technology needed to work together consistently to refine the product, and (2) locally developed population management tools can provide efficient data tracking for frontline clinical teams and leadership. The preliminary work identified critical gaps that were successfully addressed by building local PM registry tools from EHR-derived data and offers lessons learned for others engaged in similar work. (Population Health Management 2016;19:232-239).

Estimating the Size of the Methamphetamine-Using Population in New York City Using Network Sampling Techniques.

PubMed

Dombrowski, Kirk; Khan, Bilal; Wendel, Travis; McLean, Katherine; Misshula, Evan; Curtis, Ric

2012-12-01

As part of a recent study of the dynamics of the retail market for methamphetamine use in New York City, we used network sampling methods to estimate the size of the total networked population. This process involved sampling from respondents' list of co-use contacts, which in turn became the basis for capture-recapture estimation. Recapture sampling was based on links to other respondents derived from demographic and "telefunken" matching procedures-the latter being an anonymized version of telephone number matching. This paper describes the matching process used to discover the links between the solicited contacts and project respondents, the capture-recapture calculation, the estimation of "false matches", and the development of confidence intervals for the final population estimates. A final population of 12,229 was estimated, with a range of 8235 - 23,750. The techniques described here have the special virtue of deriving an estimate for a hidden population while retaining respondent anonymity and the anonymity of network alters, but likely require larger sample size than the 132 persons interviewed to attain acceptable confidence levels for the estimate.

Anxiety and Depression in Patients with Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Lim, Sher-Wei; Shiue, Yow-Ling; Ho, Chung-Han; Yu, Shou-Chun; Kao, Pei-Hsin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Kuo, Jinn-Rung

2017-01-01

Background Traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) may involve new-onset anxiety and depression post-discharge. However, long-term population-based studies have lacked access to follow-up conditions in terms of new-onset anxiety and depression. The objective of this study was to estimate the long-term risk of new-onset anxiety and depression post-discharge. Methods The Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 (LHID2000) from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database was used in this study. Individuals with tSCI were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) diagnostic codes of 806 and 952 from 1999–2008. The comparison cohort (other health conditions group) was randomly selected from the LHID2000 and was 1:1 matched by age, sex, index year, and comorbidities to reduce the selection bias. All study participants were retrospectively followed for a maximum of 3 years until the end of follow-up, death, or new-onset anxiety (ICD-9-CM: 309.2–309.4) or depression (ICD-9-CM: 296.2, 296.5, 296.82, 300.4, 309.0–309.1, and 311). Persons who were issued a catastrophic illness card for tSCI were categorized as having a severe level of SCI (Injury Severity Score [ISS] ≥16). Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratios of anxiety or depression between patients with tSCI and other health conditions. The relative risk of anxiety or depression was estimated using a Cox regression analysis, which was adjusted for potential confounding factors. Results Univariate analyses showed that the tSCI patients (n = 3556) had a 1.33 times greater incidence of new-onset anxiety or depression (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12–1.57) compared to the other health conditions group (n = 3556). After adjusting for potential risk factors, the tSCI patients had a significant 1.29-fold increased risk of anxiety or depression compared to the group with other health conditions (95% CI: 1.09–1

Increased incidence of peptic ulcer disease in central serous chorioretinopathy patients: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, San-Ni; Lian, Iebin; Chen, Yi-Chiao; Ho, Jau-Der

2015-02-01

To investigate peptic ulcer disease and other possible risk factors in patients with central serous chorioretinopathy (CSR) using a population-based database. In this population-based retrospective cohort study, longitudinal data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were analyzed. The study cohort comprised 835 patients with CSR and the control cohort comprised 4175 patients without CSR from January 2000 to December 2009. Conditional logistic regression was applied to examine the association of peptic ulcer disease and other possible risk factors for CSR, and stratified Cox regression models were applied to examine whether patients with CSR have an increased chance of peptic ulcer disease and hypertension development. The identifiable risk factors for CSR included peptic ulcer disease (adjusted odd ratio: 1.39, P = 0.001) and higher monthly income (adjusted odd ratio: 1.30, P = 0.006). Patients with CSR also had a significantly higher chance of developing peptic ulcer disease after the diagnosis of CSR (adjusted odd ratio: 1.43, P = 0.009). Peptic ulcer disease and higher monthly income are independent risk factors for CSR. Whereas, patients with CSR also had increased risk for peptic ulcer development.

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Population Density Estimates Derived from Sparse Open Source Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, Robert N; White, Devin A; Urban, Marie L

2013-01-01

The Population Density Tables (PDT) project at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (www.ornl.gov) is developing population density estimates for specific human activities under normal patterns of life based largely on information available in open source. Currently, activity based density estimates are based on simple summary data statistics such as range and mean. Researchers are interested in improving activity estimation and uncertainty quantification by adopting a Bayesian framework that considers both data and sociocultural knowledge. Under a Bayesian approach knowledge about population density may be encoded through the process of expert elicitation. Due to the scale of the PDT effort whichmore » considers over 250 countries, spans 40 human activity categories, and includes numerous contributors, an elicitation tool is required that can be operationalized within an enterprise data collection and reporting system. Such a method would ideally require that the contributor have minimal statistical knowledge, require minimal input by a statistician or facilitator, consider human difficulties in expressing qualitative knowledge in a quantitative setting, and provide methods by which the contributor can appraise whether their understanding and associated uncertainty was well captured. This paper introduces an algorithm that transforms answers to simple, non-statistical questions into a bivariate Gaussian distribution as the prior for the Beta distribution. Based on geometric properties of the Beta distribution parameter feasibility space and the bivariate Gaussian distribution, an automated method for encoding is developed that responds to these challenging enterprise requirements. Though created within the context of population density, this approach may be applicable to a wide array of problem domains requiring informative priors for the Beta distribution.« less

Chapter 33: Offshore Population Estimates of Marbled Murrelets in California

Treesearch

C. John Ralph; Sherri L. Miller

1995-01-01

We devised a method of estimating population size of Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) found in California’s offshore waters. The method involves determining the distribution of birds from the shore outward to 6,000 m offshore. Applying this distribution to data from boat surveys, we derived population estimates and estimates of sampling...

cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

PubMed

Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

2016-07-01

Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Disaggregation of nation-wide dynamic population exposure estimates in The Netherlands: Applications of activity-based transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckx, Carolien; Int Panis, Luc; Uljee, Inge; Arentze, Theo; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert

Traditional exposure studies that link concentrations with population data do not always take into account the temporal and spatial variations in both concentrations and population density. In this paper we present an integrated model chain for the determination of nation-wide exposure estimates that incorporates temporally and spatially resolved information about people's location and activities (obtained from an activity-based transport model) and about ambient pollutant concentrations (obtained from a dispersion model). To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that such an integrated exercise was successfully carried out in a fully operational modus for all models under consideration. The evaluation of population level exposure in The Netherlands to NO 2 at different time-periods, locations, for different subpopulations (gender, socio-economic status) and during different activities (residential, work, transport, shopping) is chosen as a case-study to point out the new features of this methodology. Results demonstrate that, by neglecting people's travel behaviour, total average exposure to NO 2 will be underestimated by 4% and hourly exposure results can be underestimated by more than 30%. A more detailed exposure analysis reveals the intra-day variations in exposure estimates and the presence of large exposure differences between different activities (traffic > work > shopping > home) and between subpopulations (men > women, low socio-economic class > high socio-economic class). This kind of exposure analysis, disaggregated by activities or by subpopulations, per time of day, provides useful insight and information for scientific and policy purposes. It demonstrates that policy measures, aimed at reducing the overall (average) exposure concentration of the population may impact in a different way depending on the time of day or the subgroup considered. From a scientific point of view, this new approach can be used to reduce exposure misclassification.

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barker, Edwin S.; Matney, Mark J.

2007-01-01

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan

Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries

PubMed Central

Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

2014-01-01

Problem Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. Context To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. Action In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. Lessons learnt It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners. PMID:25320676

Short-term mortality after perforated or bleeding peptic ulcer among elderly patients: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Christensen, Steffen; Riis, Anders; Nørgaard, Mette; Sørensen, Henrik T; Thomsen, Reimar W

2007-04-17

Mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer increases with age. Limited data exist on how the higher burden of comorbidity among elderly patients affects this association. We aimed to examine the association of age with short-term mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer and to determine the impact of comorbidity on this association. In this population-based cohort study in three Danish counties between 1991 and 2003 we identified two cohorts of patients: those hospitalized with a first-time discharge diagnosis of perforated peptic ulcer and those with bleeding peptic ulcer. The diagnoses were ascertained from hospital discharge registries and mortality through the Danish Civil Registration System. Information on comorbidity and use of ulcer-related drugs was obtained through administrative medical databases. We computed age-, gender- and comorbidity-standardized 30-day mortality rates and used Cox's regression to estimate adjusted 30-day mortality rate ratios (MRR) for elderly compared with younger patients. Among 2,061 patients with perforated peptic ulcer, 743 (36%) were 65-79 years old and 513 patients (25%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality was 8.9% among patients younger than 65 years rising to 44.6% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 5.3 (95% CI: 4.0-7.0). Among 7,232 patients with bleeding peptic ulcer 2,372 (33%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality among patients younger than 65 was 4.3% compared with 16.9% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 3.7 (95% CI: 2.9-4.7). Analyses stratified by comorbidity consistently showed high MRRs among elderly patients, regardless of comorbidity level. Ageing is a strong predictor for a poor outcome after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer independently of comorbidity.

Short-term mortality after perforated or bleeding peptic ulcer among elderly patients: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Background Mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer increases with age. Limited data exist on how the higher burden of comorbidity among elderly patients affects this association. We aimed to examine the association of age with short-term mortality after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer and to determine the impact of comorbidity on this association. Methods In this population-based cohort study in three Danish counties between 1991 and 2003 we identified two cohorts of patients: those hospitalized with a first-time discharge diagnosis of perforated peptic ulcer and those with bleeding peptic ulcer. The diagnoses were ascertained from hospital discharge registries and mortality through the Danish Civil Registration System. Information on comorbidity and use of ulcer-related drugs was obtained through administrative medical databases. We computed age-, gender- and comorbidity-standardized 30-day mortality rates and used Cox's regression to estimate adjusted 30-day mortality rate ratios (MRR) for elderly compared with younger patients. Results Among 2,061 patients with perforated peptic ulcer, 743 (36%) were 65–79 years old and 513 patients (25%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality was 8.9% among patients younger than 65 years rising to 44.6% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 5.3 (95% CI: 4.0–7.0). Among 7,232 patients with bleeding peptic ulcer 2,372 (33%) were aged 80+ years. Standardized 30-day mortality among patients younger than 65 was 4.3% compared with 16.9% among patients aged 80+ years, corresponding to an adjusted MRR of 3.7 (95% CI: 2.9–4.7). Analyses stratified by comorbidity consistently showed high MRRs among elderly patients, regardless of comorbidity level. Conclusion Ageing is a strong predictor for a poor outcome after perforated and bleeding peptic ulcer independently of comorbidity. PMID:17439661

GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

2012-01-01

GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quality of life in elderly patients with an ostomy - a study from the population-based PROFILES registry.

PubMed

Verweij, N M; Bonhof, C S; Schiphorst, A H W; Maas, H A; Mols, F; Pronk, A; Hamaker, M E

2018-04-01

Ostomies are being placed frequently in surgically treated elderly patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). An insight into the (potential) impact of ostomies on quality of life (QoL) could be useful in patient counselling as well as in the challenging shared treatment decision-making. Patients with CRC diagnosed between 2000 and 2009 and registered in the population-based Eindhoven Cancer Registry received a QoL questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30) in 2010. In addition, QoL was compared with an age- and sex-matched normative population. The study included 2299 CRC patients, of whom 494 had an ostomy. No differences were found in reported ostomy-related problems between patients aged ≤65, 66-75 and ≥76 years. Ostomy patients aged 66-75 and ≥76 years reported significantly lower physical functioning compared with those without an ostomy. In the elderly (those aged ≥76 years) ostomates reported a worse physical and social functioning compared with the normative population. All these differences were of small clinical relevance. The impact of an ostomy seems to be more prominent in younger (≤75 years old) ostomates, as they experience more functional limitations and a decrease in global health status compared with younger nonostomy patients and the normative population. Although elderly (≥76 years old) patients with an ostomy report significantly more limitations in functioning compared with a normative population and elderly CRC patients without an ostomy, the clinical relevance of this finding is limited. In contrast, the impact of an ostomy is more prominent in younger patients. Thus, age itself is not a reason for withholding an ostomy. Colorectal Disease © 2017 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Mid-1976 Population Estimates for Nonmetropolitan Arizona Communities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arizona State Dept. of Economic Planning and Development, Phoenix.

The mid-1976 population estimates for 73 Arizona nonmetropolitan communities and their immediately surrounding areas were computed using a ratio between selected population indicators and actual population as established for each community by the U.S. Bureau of Census in census years. The resultant persons-per-indicator was then multiplied times…

A hybrid patient-specific biomechanical model based image registration method for the motion estimation of lungs.

PubMed

Han, Lianghao; Dong, Hua; McClelland, Jamie R; Han, Liangxiu; Hawkes, David J; Barratt, Dean C

2017-07-01

This paper presents a new hybrid biomechanical model-based non-rigid image registration method for lung motion estimation. In the proposed method, a patient-specific biomechanical modelling process captures major physically realistic deformations with explicit physical modelling of sliding motion, whilst a subsequent non-rigid image registration process compensates for small residuals. The proposed algorithm was evaluated with 10 4D CT datasets of lung cancer patients. The target registration error (TRE), defined as the Euclidean distance of landmark pairs, was significantly lower with the proposed method (TRE = 1.37 mm) than with biomechanical modelling (TRE = 3.81 mm) and intensity-based image registration without specific considerations for sliding motion (TRE = 4.57 mm). The proposed method achieved a comparable accuracy as several recently developed intensity-based registration algorithms with sliding handling on the same datasets. A detailed comparison on the distributions of TREs with three non-rigid intensity-based algorithms showed that the proposed method performed especially well on estimating the displacement field of lung surface regions (mean TRE = 1.33 mm, maximum TRE = 5.3 mm). The effects of biomechanical model parameters (such as Poisson's ratio, friction and tissue heterogeneity) on displacement estimation were investigated. The potential of the algorithm in optimising biomechanical models of lungs through analysing the pattern of displacement compensation from the image registration process has also been demonstrated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Farm Population Estimates for 1968.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banks, Vera; Beale, Calvin L.

Total farm population has continued to decrease; the April 1968 average of 10,454,000 persons reflected an estimated drop of 421,000 since April 1967. The regional distribution remained the same, however, with the largest concentration in the South, about 45 percent, while the North Central Region ranked second with 39 percent. During 1967-1968,…

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings.

PubMed

Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

2016-01-01

An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243~9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.

Measuring the Population Burden of Injuries—Implications for Global and National Estimates: A Multi-centre Prospective UK Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Lyons, Ronan A.; Kendrick, Denise; Towner, Elizabeth M.; Christie, Nicola; Macey, Steven; Coupland, Carol; Gabbe, Belinda J.

2011-01-01

Background Current methods of measuring the population burden of injuries rely on many assumptions and limited data available to the global burden of diseases (GBD) studies. The aim of this study was to compare the population burden of injuries using different approaches from the UK Burden of Injury (UKBOI) and GBD studies. Methods and Findings The UKBOI was a prospective cohort of 1,517 injured individuals that collected patient-reported outcomes. Extrapolated outcome data were combined with multiple sources of morbidity and mortality data to derive population metrics of the burden of injury in the UK. Participants were injured patients recruited from hospitals in four UK cities and towns: Swansea, Nottingham, Bristol, and Guildford, between September 2005 and April 2007. Patient-reported changes in quality of life using the EQ-5D at baseline, 1, 4, and 12 months after injury provided disability weights used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLDs) component of disability adjusted life years (DALYs). DALYs were calculated for the UK and extrapolated to global estimates using both UKBOI and GBD disability weights. Estimated numbers (and rates per 100,000) for UK population extrapolations were 750,999 (1,240) for hospital admissions, 7,982,947 (13,339) for emergency department (ED) attendances, and 22,185 (36.8) for injury-related deaths in 2005. Nonadmitted ED-treated injuries accounted for 67% of YLDs. Estimates for UK DALYs amounted to 1,771,486 (82% due to YLDs), compared with 669,822 (52% due to YLDs) using the GBD approach. Extrapolating patient-derived disability weights to GBD estimates would increase injury-related DALYs 2.6-fold. Conclusions The use of disability weights derived from patient experiences combined with additional morbidity data on ED-treated patients and inpatients suggests that the absolute burden of injury is higher than previously estimated. These findings have substantial implications for improving measurement of the national

Applying Thiessen Polygon Catchment Areas and Gridded Population Weights to Estimate Conflict-Driven Population Changes in South Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, L.

2017-10-01

Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan) as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP), in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12) increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24) experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guthrie Zimmerman,; Sauer, John; Fleming, Kathy; Link, William; Pamela R. Garrettson,

2015-01-01

We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of day effects, these data can be used to estimate population size. The BBS provides an index of wood duck abundance along roadside routes. Although factors influencing change in BBS counts over time can be controlled in BBS analysis, BBS indices alone cannot be used to derive population size estimates. We used AFBWS data to scale BBS indices for Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), basing the scaling factors on the ratio of estimated AFBWS population sizes to regional BBS indices for portions of BCRs that were common to both surveys. We summed scaled BBS results for portions of the Flyway not covered by the AFBWS with AFBWS population estimates to estimate a mean yearly total of 1,295,875 (mean 95% CI: 1,013,940–1,727,922) wood ducks. Scaling factors varied among BCRs from 16.7 to 148.0; the mean scaling factor was 68.9 (mean 95% CI: 53.5–90.9). Flyway-wide, population estimates from the combined analysis were consistent with alternative estimates derived from harvest data, and also provide population estimates within states and BCRs. We recommend their use in harvest and habitat management within the Atlantic Flyway.

Population-based contracting (population health): part II.

PubMed

Jacofsky, D J

2017-11-01

Modern healthcare contracting is shifting the responsibility for improving quality, enhancing community health and controlling the total cost of care for patient populations from payers to providers. Population-based contracting involves capitated risk taken across an entire population, such that any included services within the contract are paid for by the risk-bearing entity throughout the term of the agreement. Under such contracts, a risk-bearing entity, which may be a provider group, a hospital or another payer, administers the contract and assumes risk for contractually defined services. These contracts can be structured in various ways, from professional fee capitation to full global per member per month diagnosis-based risk. The entity contracting with the payer must have downstream network contracts to provide the care and facilities that it has agreed to provide. Population health is a very powerful model to reduce waste and costs. It requires a deep understanding of the nuances of such contracting and the appropriate infrastructure to manage both networks and risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1431-4. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Persistence of Antipsychotic Treatment in Elderly Dementia Patients: A Retrospective, Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Mast, Gavin; Fernandes, Kimberly; Tadrous, Mina; Martins, Diana; Herrmann, Nathan; Gomes, Tara

2016-06-01

Antipsychotics are commonly used to manage behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia. Concerns over their safety and efficacy in this role have resulted in antipsychotics typically being recommended for short-term usage only when used among dementia patients. However, there is little work examining the duration of antipsychotic treatment in the elderly dementia patient population. To determine the persistence of use of antipsychotics in elderly dementia patients and the role of dose on therapy duration. A retrospective, population-based cohort study using administrative data, including dispensing records from a provincial public drug program, from Ontario, Canada between 2009 and 2012. Elderly dementia patients newly initiated onto antipsychotics were followed until drug discontinuation, death, 2-year follow-up, or end of study. Competing risk analysis was performed to determine time to discontinuation, stratified by categories of initial dose. After 2 years 49.1 % of the cohort ( N  = 22,927 of 46,695) had discontinued treatment. When stratified by dose, the high-dose group (51.1 % discontinued) discontinued more frequently than the medium- (48.7 % discontinued) and low- (47.5 % discontinued) dose groups ( p  < 0.0001). Approximately half of elderly dementia patients treated with antipsychotics discontinue within 2 years, with those on higher doses more likely to discontinue. However, the number of patients remaining on therapy represents a serious public health concern.

Estimation of a Preference-Based Summary Score for the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System: The PROMIS®-Preference (PROPr) Scoring System.

PubMed

Dewitt, Barry; Feeny, David; Fischhoff, Baruch; Cella, David; Hays, Ron D; Hess, Rachel; Pilkonis, Paul A; Revicki, Dennis A; Roberts, Mark S; Tsevat, Joel; Yu, Lan; Hanmer, Janel

2018-06-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) preference-based scores are used to assess the health of populations and patients and for cost-effectiveness analyses. The National Institutes of Health Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS ® ) consists of patient-reported outcome measures developed using item response theory. PROMIS is in need of a direct preference-based scoring system for assigning values to health states. To produce societal preference-based scores for 7 PROMIS domains: Cognitive Function-Abilities, Depression, Fatigue, Pain Interference, Physical Function, Sleep Disturbance, and Ability to Participate in Social Roles and Activities. Online survey of a US nationally representative sample ( n = 983). Preferences for PROMIS health states were elicited with the standard gamble to obtain both single-attribute scoring functions for each of the 7 PROMIS domains and a multiplicative multiattribute utility (scoring) function. The 7 single-attribute scoring functions were fit using isotonic regression with linear interpolation. The multiplicative multiattribute summary function estimates utilities for PROMIS multiattribute health states on a scale where 0 is the utility of being dead and 1 the utility of "full health." The lowest possible score is -0.022 (for a state viewed as worse than dead), and the highest possible score is 1. The online survey systematically excludes some subgroups, such as the visually impaired and illiterate. A generic societal preference-based scoring system is now available for all studies using these 7 PROMIS health domains.

Non-parametric estimation of population size changes from the site frequency spectrum.

PubMed

Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Hobolth, Asger

2018-06-11

Changes in population size is a useful quantity for understanding the evolutionary history of a species. Genetic variation within a species can be summarized by the site frequency spectrum (SFS). For a sample of size n, the SFS is a vector of length n - 1 where entry i is the number of sites where the mutant base appears i times and the ancestral base appears n - i times. We present a new method, CubSFS, for estimating the changes in population size of a panmictic population from an observed SFS. First, we provide a straightforward proof for the expression of the expected site frequency spectrum depending only on the population size. Our derivation is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the instantaneous coalescent rate matrix. Second, we solve the inverse problem of determining the changes in population size from an observed SFS. Our solution is based on a cubic spline for the population size. The cubic spline is determined by minimizing the weighted average of two terms, namely (i) the goodness of fit to the observed SFS, and (ii) a penalty term based on the smoothness of the changes. The weight is determined by cross-validation. The new method is validated on simulated demographic histories and applied on unfolded and folded SFS from 26 different human populations from the 1000 Genomes Project.

Trends and outcome predictors after traumatic brain injury surgery: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Shi, Hon-Yi; Hwang, Shiuh-Lin; Lee, I-Chen; Chen, I-Te; Lee, King-Teh; Lin, Chih-Lung

2014-12-01

The authors sought to analyze trends in hospital resource utilization and mortality rates in a population of patients who had received traumatic brain injury (TBI) surgery. This nationwide population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 18,286 patients who had received surgical treatment for TBI between 1998 and 2010. The multiple linear regression model and Cox proportional hazards model were used for multivariate assessment of outcome predictors. The prevalence rate of surgical treatment for patients with TBI gradually but significantly (p < 0.001) increased by 47.6% from 5.0 per 100,000 persons in 1998 to 7.4 per 100,000 persons in 2010. Age, sex, Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index score, hospital volume, and surgeon volume were significantly associated with TBI surgery outcomes (p < 0.05). Over the 12-year period analyzed, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 19.06%, whereas the in-hospital mortality rate decreased 10.9%. The estimated mean time of overall survival after TBI surgery (± SD) was 83.0 ± 4.2 months, and the overall in-hospital and 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 74.5%, 67.3%, 61.1%, and 57.8%, respectively. These data reveal an increased prevalence of TBI, especially in older patients, and an increased hospital treatment cost but a decreased in-hospital mortality rate. Health care providers and patients should recognize that attributes of the patient and of the hospital may affect hospital resource utilization and the mortality rate. These results are relevant not only to other countries with similar population sizes but also to countries with larger populations.

How do we estimate survival? External validation of a tool for survival estimation in patients with metastatic bone disease-decision analysis and comparison of three international patient populations.

PubMed

Piccioli, Andrea; Spinelli, M Silvia; Forsberg, Jonathan A; Wedin, Rikard; Healey, John H; Ippolito, Vincenzo; Daolio, Primo Andrea; Ruggieri, Pietro; Maccauro, Giulio; Gasbarrini, Alessandro; Biagini, Roberto; Piana, Raimondo; Fazioli, Flavio; Luzzati, Alessandro; Di Martino, Alberto; Nicolosi, Francesco; Camnasio, Francesco; Rosa, Michele Attilio; Campanacci, Domenico Andrea; Denaro, Vincenzo; Capanna, Rodolfo

2015-05-22

We recently developed a clinical decision support tool, capable of estimating the likelihood of survival at 3 and 12 months following surgery for patients with operable skeletal metastases. After making it publicly available on www.PATHFx.org , we attempted to externally validate it using independent, international data. We collected data from patients treated at 13 Italian orthopaedic oncology referral centers between 2010 and 2013, then applied to PATHFx, which generated a probability of survival at three and 12-months for each patient. We assessed accuracy using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), clinical utility using Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), and compared the Italian patient data to the training set (United States) and first external validation set (Scandinavia). The Italian dataset contained 287 records with at least 12 months follow-up information. The AUCs for the three-month and 12-month estimates was 0.80 and 0.77, respectively. There were missing data, including the surgeon's estimate of survival that was missing in the majority of records. Physiologically, Italian patients were similar to patients in the training and first validation sets. However notable differences were observed in the proportion of those surviving three and 12-months, suggesting differences in referral patterns and perhaps indications for surgery. PATHFx was successfully validated in an Italian dataset containing missing data. This study demonstrates its broad applicability to European patients, even in centers with differing treatment philosophies from those previously studied.

75 FR 44 - Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates Challenge Programs

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-04

..., conduct research to enhance the estimates and challenge programs, and to integrate the updates from the... local governments would increase the administrative and evaluative complexity of this program for the... comparison with the population estimates, conducting research to enhance the estimates and challenge programs...

Bird population density estimated from acoustic signals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, D.K.; Efford, M.G.

2009-01-01

Many animal species are detected primarily by sound. Although songs, calls and other sounds are often used for population assessment, as in bird point counts and hydrophone surveys of cetaceans, there are few rigorous methods for estimating population density from acoustic data. 2. The problem has several parts - distinguishing individuals, adjusting for individuals that are missed, and adjusting for the area sampled. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) is a statistical methodology that addresses jointly the second and third parts of the problem. We have extended SECR to use uncalibrated information from acoustic signals on the distance to each source. 3. We applied this extension of SECR to data from an acoustic survey of ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla density in an eastern US deciduous forest with multiple four-microphone arrays. We modelled average power from spectrograms of ovenbird songs measured within a window of 0??7 s duration and frequencies between 4200 and 5200 Hz. 4. The resulting estimates of the density of singing males (0??19 ha -1 SE 0??03 ha-1) were consistent with estimates of the adult male population density from mist-netting (0??36 ha-1 SE 0??12 ha-1). The fitted model predicts sound attenuation of 0??11 dB m-1 (SE 0??01 dB m-1) in excess of losses from spherical spreading. 5.Synthesis and applications. Our method for estimating animal population density from acoustic signals fills a gap in the census methods available for visually cryptic but vocal taxa, including many species of bird and cetacean. The necessary equipment is simple and readily available; as few as two microphones may provide adequate estimates, given spatial replication. The method requires that individuals detected at the same place are acoustically distinguishable and all individuals vocalize during the recording interval, or that the per capita rate of vocalization is known. We believe these requirements can be met, with suitable field methods, for a significant

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

A novel method of estimating cost of therapy by using patient population characteristics: analysis of fluoroquinolones in various populations with different distributions of renal function.

PubMed

Enzweiler, Kevin A; Bosso, John A; White, Roger L

2003-07-01

Formulary decisions regarding a given drug class are often made in the absence of patient outcome and/or sophisticated pharmacoeconomic data. Analyses that consider factors beyond simple acquisition costs may be useful in such situations. For example, the cost implications of using manufacturers' recommendations for dosing in patients with renal dysfunction may be important, depending on the distribution of various levels of renal function within a patient population. Using four 1000-patient populations representing different renal function distributions and a fifth population of our medical center's distribution, we determined the costs of therapy for intravenous and oral levofloxacin, gatifloxacin, and moxifloxacin for a 10-day course of therapy for community-acquired pneumonia. Costs considered were average wholesale prices (AWPs), 50% of AWP, or same daily price, plus intravenous dose preparation and administration costs when applicable. Costs for each renal function distribution were examined for significant differences with an analysis-of-variance test. Also, costs of failing to adjust dosing regimens for decreased renal function were determined. Differences in fluoroquinolone costs (AWP, 50% AWP, or when matched as the same daily price) among the populations were found. When considering same daily prices, differences among populations ranged from about 35,000 dollars with intravenous gatifloxacin to more than 51,000 dollars for intravenous levofloxacin (all fluoroquinolones, p>0.05). Within a population, differences in costs among the intravenous fluoroquinolones ranged from 47,000-99,000 dollars. Rank orders of the drugs and population costs of therapy were affected by the pricing structure used and varied by the specific population and drug. Differences among the fluoroquinolones or populations were much smaller (<2100 dollars) when considering oral regimens. Costs potentially incurred by failing to adjust dosing for renal function were substantial

Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

PubMed

Hameed, Sarah O; White, J Wilson; Miller, Seth H; Nickols, Kerry J; Morgan, Steven G

2016-06-29

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations. © 2016 The Author(s).

Patterns of cannabis use in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A population based analysis.

PubMed

Weiss, Alexandra; Friedenberg, Frank

2015-11-01

Tobacco use patterns and effects in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease have been extensively studied, however the role and patterns of cannabis use remains poorly defined. Our aim was to evaluate patterns of marijuana use in a large population based survey. Cases were identified from the NHANES database from the National Center for Health Statistics for the time period from January, 2009 through December, 2010 as having ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease, and exact matched with controls using the Propensity Score Module of SPSS, based on age, gender, and sample weighted using the nearest neighbor method. After weighting, 2084,895 subjects with IBD and 2013,901 control subjects were identified with no significant differences in demographic characteristics. Subjects with IBD had a higher incidence of ever having used marijuana/hashish (M/H) (67.3% vs. 60.0%) and an earlier age of onset of M/H use (15.7 years vs. 19.6 years). Patients with IBD were less likely to have used M/H every month for a year, but more likely to use a heavier amount per day (64.9% subjects with IBD used three or more joints per day vs. 80.5% of subjects without IBD used two or fewer joints per day). In multivariable logistic regression, presence of IBD, male gender, and age over 40 years predicted M/H use. Our study is the first to evaluate marijuana patterns in a large-scale population based survey. Older, male IBD patients have the highest odds of marijuana use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exposure estimate for FD&C colour additives for the US population

PubMed Central

Folmer, Daniel E.; Lee, Hyoung S.; Butts, Kyla M.; Carberry, Susan E.

2016-01-01

Dietary exposures to the seven food, drug, and cosmetic (FD&C) colour additives that are approved for general use in food in the United States were estimated for the US population (aged 2 years and older), children (aged 2–5 years) and teenage boys (aged 13–18 years) based on analytical levels of the FD&C colour additives in foods. Approximately 600 foods were chosen for analysis, based on a survey of product labels, for the levels of FD&C colour additives. Dietary exposure was estimated using both 2-day food consumption data from the combined 2007–10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and 10–14-day food consumption data from the 2007–10 NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends – Nutrient Intake Database (NPD NET-NID). Dietary exposure was estimated at the mean and 90th percentile using three different exposure scenarios: low exposure, average exposure and high exposure, to account for the range in the amount of each FD&C colour additive for a given food. For all populations and all exposure scenarios, the highest cumulative eaters-only exposures in food were determined for FD&C Red No. 40, FD&C Yellow No. 5 and FD&C Yellow No. 6. In addition, the eaters-only exposure was estimated for individual food categories in order to determine which food categories contributed the most to the exposure for each FD&C colour additive. Breakfast Cereal, Juice Drinks, Soft Drinks, and Frozen Dairy Desserts/Sherbet (also referred to as Ice Cream, Frozen Yogurt, Sherbet (including Bars, Sticks, Sandwiches)) were the major contributing food categories to exposure for multiple FD&C colour additives for all three populations. PMID:27092991

Association Between Carotid Bulb Diaphragm and Ischemic Stroke in Young Afro-Caribbean Patients: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Joux, Julien; Boulanger, Marion; Jeannin, Severine; Chausson, Nicolas; Hennequin, Jean-Luc; Molinié, Vincent; Smadja, Didier; Touzé, Emmanuel; Olindo, Stephane

2016-10-01

Carotid bulb diaphragm (CBD) has been described in young carotid ischemic stroke (CIS) patients, especially in blacks. However, the prevalence of CBD in CIS patients is unknown, and whether CBD is a risk factor for CIS remains unclear. We assessed the association between CBD and incident CIS in a population-based study. We selected all young (<55 years) CIS patients from a 1-year population-based cohort study in the Afro-Caribbean population of Martinique in 2012. All patients had a comprehensive work-up including a computed tomographic angiography. We calculated CIS associated with ipsilateral CBD incidence with 95% confidence intervals using Poisson distribution. We then selected age- and sex-matched controls among young (<55 years) Afro-Caribbean stroke-free patients admitted for a road crash who routinely had computed tomographic angiography. Odds ratio (ORs) were calculated by conditional logistic regression adjusted for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and smoking. CIS associated with ipsilateral CBD incidence was 3.8 per 100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.1). Prevalence of ipsilateral CBD was 23% in all CIS and 37% in undetermined CIS patients. When restricted to undetermined CIS, CBD prevalence was 24 times higher than that in controls (adjusted OR, 24.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-325.6). CBD is associated with an increased risk of ipsilateral CIS in young Afro-Caribbean population. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

An estimation of Canadian population exposure to cosmic rays from air travel.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Newton, Dustin

2013-03-01

Based on air travel statistics in 1984, it was estimated that less than 4 % of the population dose from cosmic ray exposure would result from air travel. In the present study, cosmic ray doses were calculated for more than 3,000 flights departing from more than 200 Canadian airports using actual flight profiles. Based on currently available air travel statistics, the annual per capita effective dose from air transportation is estimated to be 32 μSv for Canadians, about 10 % of the average cosmic ray dose received at ground level (310 μSv per year).

Survival Comparison of Patients With Cystic Fibrosis in Canada and the United States: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Stephenson, Anne L; Sykes, Jenna; Stanojevic, Sanja; Quon, Bradley S; Marshall, Bruce C; Petren, Kristofer; Ostrenga, Josh; Fink, Aliza K; Elbert, Alexander; Goss, Christopher H

2017-04-18

In 2011, the median age of survival of patients with cystic fibrosis reported in the United States was 36.8 years, compared with 48.5 years in Canada. Direct comparison of survival estimates between national registries is challenging because of inherent differences in methodologies used, data processing techniques, and ascertainment bias. To use a standardized approach to calculate cystic fibrosis survival estimates and to explore differences between Canada and the United States. Population-based study. 42 Canadian cystic fibrosis clinics and 110 U.S. cystic fibrosis care centers. Patients followed in the Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry (CCFR) and U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) between 1990 and 2013. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival between patients followed in the CCFR (n = 5941) and those in the CFFPR (n = 45 448). Multivariable models were used to adjust for factors known to be associated with survival. Median age of survival in patients with cystic fibrosis increased in both countries between 1990 and 2013; however, in 1995 and 2005, survival in Canada increased at a faster rate than in the United States (P < 0.001). On the basis of contemporary data from 2009 to 2013, the median age of survival in Canada was 10 years greater than in the United States (50.9 vs. 40.6 years, respectively). The adjusted risk for death was 34% lower in Canada than the United States (hazard ratio, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.54 to 0.81]). A greater proportion of patients in Canada received transplants (10.3% vs. 6.5%, respectively [standardized difference, 13.7]). Differences in survival between U.S. and Canadian patients varied according to U.S. patients' insurance status. Ascertainment bias due to missing data or nonrandom loss to follow-up might affect the results. Differences in cystic fibrosis survival between Canada and the United States persisted after adjustment for risk factors associated with survival, except for private

Contralateral Prophylactic Mastectomy Decisions in a Population-Based Sample of Patients With Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Jagsi, Reshma; Hawley, Sarah T; Griffith, Kent A; Janz, Nancy K; Kurian, Allison W; Ward, Kevin C; Hamilton, Ann S; Morrow, Monica; Katz, Steven J

2017-03-01

Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) use is increasing among women with unilateral breast cancer, but little is known about treatment decision making or physician interactions in diverse patient populations. To evaluate patient motivations, knowledge, and decisions, as well as the impact of surgeon recommendations, in a large, diverse sample of patients who underwent recent treatment for breast cancer. A survey was sent to 3631 women with newly diagnosed, unilateral stage 0, I, or II breast cancer between July 2013 and September 2014. Women were identified through the population-based Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registries of Los Angeles County and Georgia. Data on surgical decisions, motivations for those decisions, and knowledge were included in the analysis. Logistic and multinomial logistic regression of the data were conducted to identify factors associated with (1) CPM vs all other treatments combined, (2) CPM vs unilateral mastectomy (UM), and (3) CPM vs breast-conserving surgery (BCS). Associations between CPM receipt and surgeon recommendations were also evaluated. All statistical models and summary estimates were weighted to be representative of the target population. Receipt of CPM was the primary dependent variable for analysis and was measured by a woman's self-report of her treatment. Of the 3631 women selected to receive the survey, 2578 (71.0%) responded and 2402 of these respondents who did not have bilateral disease and for whom surgery type was known constituted the final analytic sample. The mean (SD) age was 61.8 (12) years at the time of the survey. Overall, 1301 (43.9%) patients considered CPM (601 [24.8%] considered it very strongly or strongly); only 395 (38.1%) of them knew that CPM does not improve survival for all women with breast cancer. Ultimately, 1466 women (61.6%) received BCS, 508 (21.2%) underwent UM, and 428 (17.3%) received CPM. On multivariable analysis, factors associated with CPM included younger age

Smoking, cessation, and cessation counseling in patients with cancer: A population-based analysis.

PubMed

Ramaswamy, Apoorva T; Toll, Benjamin A; Chagpar, Anees B; Judson, Benjamin L

2016-04-15

Smoking is known to be carcinogenic and an important factor in the outcome of cancer treatment. However, to the authors' knowledge, smoking habits and smoking cessation counseling in patients with cancer have been poorly studied. The authors sought to analyze smoking habits among Americans diagnosed with cancer in a nationally representative dataset. The cancer supplement of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2010 was used to obtain information regarding self-reported smoking behavior in a representative sample of the US population. Cancer history, smoking history, quitting behavior, cessation counseling, cessation approaches, and sociodemographic variables were analyzed. A total of 27,157 individuals were interviewed for the NHIS in 2010, representing 216,052,891 individuals, 7,058,135 of whom had ever smoked and 13,188,875 of whom had been told that they had cancer. Approximately 51.7% of individuals diagnosed with cancer and who were active smokers reported being counseled to quit smoking by a health professional within the previous 12 months. Cancer survivors were no more likely to quit smoking than individuals in the general population. Those diagnosed with a tobacco-related cancer were found to be no more likely to report quitting smoking than those with other types of cancers. Rates of quitting did not appear to vary based on the type of smoking cessation method used (P = .50). Patients with cancer, including those diagnosed with a tobacco-related cancer, do not appear to be more likely to quit smoking than the general population. Only approximately one-half of patients with cancer who smoke are counseled to quit. Smoking cessation in patients with cancer is an important area for intervention and investigation. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Estimation and Partitioning of Heritability in Human Populations using Whole Genome Analysis Methods

PubMed Central

Vinkhuyzen, Anna AE; Wray, Naomi R; Yang, Jian; Goddard, Michael E; Visscher, Peter M

2014-01-01

Understanding genetic variation of complex traits in human populations has moved from the quantification of the resemblance between close relatives to the dissection of genetic variation into the contributions of individual genomic loci. But major questions remain unanswered: how much phenotypic variation is genetic, how much of the genetic variation is additive and what is the joint distribution of effect size and allele frequency at causal variants? We review and compare three whole-genome analysis methods that use mixed linear models (MLM) to estimate genetic variation, using the relationship between close or distant relatives based on pedigree or SNPs. We discuss theory, estimation procedures, bias and precision of each method and review recent advances in the dissection of additive genetic variation of complex traits in human populations that are based upon the application of MLM. Using genome wide data, SNPs account for far more of the genetic variation than the highly significant SNPs associated with a trait, but they do not account for all of the genetic variance estimated by pedigree based methods. We explain possible reasons for this ‘missing’ heritability. PMID:23988118

Reliable Quantification of the Potential for Equations Based on Spot Urine Samples to Estimate Population Salt Intake: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Liping; Crino, Michelle; Wu, Jason Hy; Woodward, Mark; Land, Mary-Anne; McLean, Rachael; Webster, Jacqui; Enkhtungalag, Batsaikhan; Nowson, Caryl A; Elliott, Paul; Cogswell, Mary; Toft, Ulla; Mill, Jose G; Furlanetto, Tania W; Ilich, Jasminka Z; Hong, Yet Hoi; Cohall, Damian; Luzardo, Leonella; Noboa, Oscar; Holm, Ellen; Gerbes, Alexander L; Senousy, Bahaa; Pinar Kara, Sonat; Brewster, Lizzy M; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Subramanian, Srinivas; Teo, Boon Wee; Allen, Norrina; Choudhury, Sohel Reza; Polonia, Jorge; Yasuda, Yoshinari; Campbell, Norm Rc; Neal, Bruce; Petersen, Kristina S

2016-09-21

Methods based on spot urine samples (a single sample at one time-point) have been identified as a possible alternative approach to 24-hour urine samples for determining mean population salt intake. The aim of this study is to identify a reliable method for estimating mean population salt intake from spot urine samples. This will be done by comparing the performance of existing equations against one other and against estimates derived from 24-hour urine samples. The effects of factors such as ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, antihypertensive drug use, health status, and timing of spot urine collection will be explored. The capacity of spot urine samples to measure change in salt intake over time will also be determined. Finally, we aim to develop a novel equation (or equations) that performs better than existing equations to estimate mean population salt intake. A systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data will be conducted. A search has been conducted to identify human studies that report salt (or sodium) excretion based upon 24-hour urine samples and spot urine samples. There were no restrictions on language, study sample size, or characteristics of the study population. MEDLINE via OvidSP (1946-present), Premedline via OvidSP, EMBASE, Global Health via OvidSP (1910-present), and the Cochrane Library were searched, and two reviewers identified eligible studies. The authors of these studies will be invited to contribute data according to a standard format. Individual participant records will be compiled and a series of analyses will be completed to: (1) compare existing equations for estimating 24-hour salt intake from spot urine samples with 24-hour urine samples, and assess the degree of bias according to key demographic and clinical characteristics; (2) assess the reliability of using spot urine samples to measure population changes in salt intake overtime; and (3) develop a novel equation that performs better than existing equations

Bacterial meningitis in patients with HIV: A population-based prospective study.

PubMed

van Veen, Kiril E B; Brouwer, Matthijs C; van der Ende, Arie; van de Beek, Diederik

2016-03-01

We studied occurrence, disease course, and prognosis of community-acquired bacterial meningitis in HIV-infected adults in the Netherlands. We performed a nationwide, prospective cohort study. Patients over 16 years old with bacterial meningitis were included. Data on patient history, symptoms and signs on admission, laboratory findings, radiologic examination, treatment, and outcome were collected prospectively. For HIV-positive patients additional information was collected retrospectively. From March 2006 to December 2013, 1354 episodes of community-acquired meningitis were included in the cohort. Thirteen patients were HIV-infected (1.0%). The annual incidence of bacterial meningitis was 8.3-fold higher (95%CI 4.6-15.1, P < 0.001) among HIV-infected patients as compared to the general population (10.79 [95%CI 5.97-19.48] vs 1.29 [95%CI 1.22-1.37] per 100.000 patients per year). Predisposing factors (other than HIV), clinical symptoms and signs, ancillary investigations, causative organisms and outcome were comparable between HIV-infected and patients without HIV infection. HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands have a 8.3-fold higher risk for bacterial meningitis as compared to the general population despite cART therapy. Clinical presentation and outcome of patients with acute bacterial meningitis with and without HIV are similar. Copyright © 2016 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimations of population density for selected periods between the Neolithic and AD 1800.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Andreas; Hilpert, Johanna; Wendt, Karl Peter

2009-04-01

Abstract We describe a combination of methods applied to obtain reliable estimations of population density using archaeological data. The combination is based on a hierarchical model of scale levels. The necessary data and methods used to obtain the results are chosen so as to define transfer functions from one scale level to another. We apply our method to data sets from western Germany that cover early Neolithic, Iron Age, Roman, and Merovingian times as well as historical data from AD 1800. Error margins and natural and historical variability are discussed. Our results for nonstate societies are always lower than conventional estimations compiled from the literature, and we discuss the reasons for this finding. At the end, we compare the calculated local and global population densities with other estimations from different parts of the world.

Comparative cardiovascular safety of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in patients with hypertension: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Dong, Yaa-Hui; Chang, Chia-Hsuin; Wu, Li-Chiu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang; Toh, Sengwee

2018-05-01

Previous studies have suggested that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may be associated with higher cardiovascular risks. However, few have been active comparison studies that directly assessed the potential differential cardiovascular risk between NSAID classes or across individual NSAIDs. We compared the risk of major cardiovascular events between cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2)-selective and nonselective NSAIDs in patients with hypertension. We conducted a cohort study of patients with hypertension who initiated COX-2-selective or nonselective NSAIDs in a population-based Taiwanese database. The outcomes included hospitalization for the following major cardiovascular events: ischaemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, transient ischaemic attack, unstable angina or coronary revascularization. We followed patients for up to 4 weeks, based on the as-treated principle. We used inverse probability weighting to control for baseline and time-varying covariates, and estimated the on-treatment hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% conservative confidence interval (CIs). We identified 2749 eligible COX-2-selective NSAID users and 52 880 eligible nonselective NSAID users. The HR of major cardiovascular events comparing COX-2-selective with nonselective NSAIDs after adjusting for baseline and time-varying covariates was 1.07 (95% CI 0.65, 1.74). We did not observe a differential risk when comparing celecoxib to diclofenac (HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.61, 2.25), ibuprofen (HR 1.36; 95% CI 0.58, 3.18) or naproxen (HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.23, 2.44). There was an increased risk with COX-2-selective NSAIDs, however, when comparing COX-2-selective NSAIDs with mefenamic acid (HR 2.11; 95% CI 1.09, 4.09). Our results provide important information about the comparative cardiovascular safety of NSAIDs in patients with hypertension. © 2018 The British Pharmacological Society.

Measuring selected PPCPs in wastewater to estimate the population in different cities in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jianfa; O'Brien, Jake; Du, Peng; Li, Xiqing; Ort, Christoph; Mueller, Jochen F; Thai, Phong K

2016-10-15

Sampling and analysis of wastewater from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) has become a useful tool for understanding exposure to chemicals. Both wastewater based studies and management and planning of the catchment require information on catchment population in the time of monitoring. Recently, a model has been developed and calibrated using selected pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) measured in influent wastewater for estimating population in different catchments in Australia. The present study aimed at evaluating the feasibility of utilizing this population estimation approach in China. Twenty-four hour composite influent samples were collected from 31 WWTPs in 17 cities with catchment sizes from 200,000-3,450,000 people representing all seven regions of China. The samples were analyzed for 19 PPCPs using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry in direct injection mode. Eight chemicals were detected in more than 50% of the samples. Significant positive correlations were found between individual PPCP mass loads and population estimates provided by WWTP operators. Using the PPCP mass load modeling approach calibrated with WWTP operator data, we estimated the population size of each catchment with good agreement with WWTP operator values (between 50-200% for all sites and 75-125% for 23 of the 31 sites). Overall, despite much lower detection and relatively high heterogeneity in PPCP consumption across China the model provided a good estimate of the population contributing to a given wastewater sample. Wastewater analysis could also provide objective PPCP consumption status in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A population-based study of tumor gene expression and risk of breast cancer death among lymph node-negative patients.

PubMed

Habel, Laurel A; Shak, Steven; Jacobs, Marlena K; Capra, Angela; Alexander, Claire; Pho, Mylan; Baker, Joffre; Walker, Michael; Watson, Drew; Hackett, James; Blick, Noelle T; Greenberg, Deborah; Fehrenbacher, Louis; Langholz, Bryan; Quesenberry, Charles P

2006-01-01

The Oncotype DX assay was recently reported to predict risk for distant recurrence among a clinical trial population of tamoxifen-treated patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To confirm and extend these findings, we evaluated the performance of this 21-gene assay among node-negative patients from a community hospital setting. A case-control study was conducted among 4,964 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with node-negative invasive breast cancer from 1985 to 1994 and not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Cases (n = 220) were patients who died from breast cancer. Controls (n = 570) were breast cancer patients who were individually matched to cases with respect to age, race, adjuvant tamoxifen, medical facility and diagnosis year, and were alive at the date of death of their matched case. Using an RT-PCR assay, archived tumor tissues were analyzed for expression levels of 16 cancer-related and five reference genes, and a summary risk score (the Recurrence Score) was calculated for each patient. Conditional logistic regression methods were used to estimate the association between risk of breast cancer death and Recurrence Score. After adjusting for tumor size and grade, the Recurrence Score was associated with risk of breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients (P = 0.003 and P = 0.03, respectively). At 10 years, the risks for breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients were 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-3.9%), 10.7% (95% CI 6.3-14.9%), and 15.5% (95% CI 7.6-22.8%) for those in the low, intermediate and high risk Recurrence Score groups, respectively. They were 6.2% (95% CI 4.5-7.9%), 17.8% (95% CI 11.8-23.3%), and 19.9% (95% CI 14.2-25.2%) for ER-positive patients not treated with tamoxifen. In both the tamoxifen-treated and -untreated groups, approximately 50% of patients had low risk Recurrence Score values. In this large, population-based study of lymph

A population-based study of tumor gene expression and risk of breast cancer death among lymph node-negative patients

PubMed Central

Habel, Laurel A; Shak, Steven; Jacobs, Marlena K; Capra, Angela; Alexander, Claire; Pho, Mylan; Baker, Joffre; Walker, Michael; Watson, Drew; Hackett, James; Blick, Noelle T; Greenberg, Deborah; Fehrenbacher, Louis; Langholz, Bryan; Quesenberry, Charles P

2006-01-01

Introduction The Oncotype DX assay was recently reported to predict risk for distant recurrence among a clinical trial population of tamoxifen-treated patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To confirm and extend these findings, we evaluated the performance of this 21-gene assay among node-negative patients from a community hospital setting. Methods A case-control study was conducted among 4,964 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with node-negative invasive breast cancer from 1985 to 1994 and not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Cases (n = 220) were patients who died from breast cancer. Controls (n = 570) were breast cancer patients who were individually matched to cases with respect to age, race, adjuvant tamoxifen, medical facility and diagnosis year, and were alive at the date of death of their matched case. Using an RT-PCR assay, archived tumor tissues were analyzed for expression levels of 16 cancer-related and five reference genes, and a summary risk score (the Recurrence Score) was calculated for each patient. Conditional logistic regression methods were used to estimate the association between risk of breast cancer death and Recurrence Score. Results After adjusting for tumor size and grade, the Recurrence Score was associated with risk of breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients (P = 0.003 and P = 0.03, respectively). At 10 years, the risks for breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients were 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7–3.9%), 10.7% (95% CI 6.3–14.9%), and 15.5% (95% CI 7.6–22.8%) for those in the low, intermediate and high risk Recurrence Score groups, respectively. They were 6.2% (95% CI 4.5–7.9%), 17.8% (95% CI 11.8–23.3%), and 19.9% (95% CI 14.2–25.2%) for ER-positive patients not treated with tamoxifen. In both the tamoxifen-treated and -untreated groups, approximately 50% of patients had low risk Recurrence Score values

Estimating glomerular filtration rate in diabetes: a comparison of cystatin-C- and creatinine-based methods.

PubMed

Macisaac, R J; Tsalamandris, C; Thomas, M C; Premaratne, E; Panagiotopoulos, S; Smith, T J; Poon, A; Jenkins, M A; Ratnaike, S I; Power, D A; Jerums, G

2006-07-01

We compared the predictive performance of a GFR based on serum cystatin C levels with commonly used creatinine-based methods in subjects with diabetes. In a cross-sectional study of 251 consecutive clinic patients, the mean reference (plasma clearance of (99m)Tc-diethylene-triamine-penta-acetic acid) GFR (iGFR) was 88+/-2 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2). A regression equation describing the relationship between iGFR and 1/cystatin C levels was derived from a test population (n=125) to allow for the estimation of GFR by cystatin C (eGFR-cystatin C). The predictive performance of eGFR-cystatin C, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease 4 variable formula (MDRD-4) and Cockcroft-Gault (C-G) formulas were then compared in a validation population (n=126). There was no difference in renal function (ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2)) as measured by iGFR (89.2+/-3.0), eGFR-cystatin C (86.8+/-2.5), MDRD-4 (87.0+/-2.8) or C-G (92.3+/-3.5). All three estimates of renal function had similar precision and accuracy. Estimates of GFR based solely on serum cystatin C levels had the same predictive potential when compared with the MDRD-4 and C-G formulas.

A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations

PubMed Central

He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

2015-01-01

Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. PMID:26463656

Estimating population diversity with CatchAll

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The massive quantity of data produced by next-generation sequencing has created a pressing need for advanced statistical tools, in particular for analysis of bacterial and phage communities. Here we address estimating the total diversity in a population – the species richness. This is an important s...

Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

PubMed

Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

2018-04-01

Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a

Estimating relative decline in populations of subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) due to baiting.

PubMed

Evans, T A

2001-12-01

Although mark-recapture protocols produce inaccurate population estimates of termite colonies, they might be employed to estimate a relative change in colony size. This possibility was tested using two Australian, mound-building, wood-eating, subterranean Coptotermes species. Three different toxicants delivered in baits were used to decrease (but not eliminate) colony size, and a single mark-recapture protocol was used to estimate pre- and postbaiting population sizes. For both species, the numbers of termites retrieved from bait stations varied widely, resulting in no significant differences in the numbers of termites sampled between treatments in either the pre- or postbaiting protocols. There were significantly fewer termites sampled in all treatments, controls included, in the postbaiting protocol compared with the pre-, suggesting a seasonal change in forager numbers. The comparison of population estimates shows a large decrease in toxicant treated colonies compared with little change in control colonies, which suggests that estimating the relative decline in population size using mark-recapture protocols might to be possible. However, the change in population estimate was due entirely to the significantly lower recapture rate in the control colonies relative to the toxicant treated colonies, as numbers of unmarked termites did not change between treatments. The population estimates should be treated with caution because low recapture rates produce dubious population estimates and, in some cases, postbaiting mark-recapture population estimates could be much greater than those at prebaiting, despite consumption of bait in sufficient quantities to cause population decline. A possible interaction between fat-stain markers and toxicants should be investigated if mark-recapture population estimates are used. Alternative methods of population change are advised, along with other indirect measures.

Use of driving-impairing medicines by a Spanish population: a population-based registry study

PubMed Central

Gutierrez-Abejón, Eduardo; Herrera-Gómez, Francisco; Criado-Espegel, Paloma

2017-01-01

Objective To assess the use of driving-impairing medicines (DIM) in the general population with special reference to length of use and concomitant use. Design Population-based registry study. Setting The year 2015 granted medicines consumption data recorded in the Castile and León (Spain) medicine dispensation registry was consulted. Participants Medicines and DIM consumers from a Spanish population (Castile and León: 2.4 million inhabitants). Exposure Medicines and DIM consumption. Patterns of use by age and gender based on the length of use (acute: 1–7 days, subacute: 8–29 days and chronic use: ≥30 days) were of interest. Estimations regarding the distribution of licensed drivers by age and gender were employed to determine the patterns of use of DIM. Results DIM were consumed by 34.4% (95% CI 34.3% to 34.5%) of the general population in 2015, more commonly with regularity (chronic use: 22.5% vs acute use: 5.3%) and more frequently by the elderly. On average, 2.3 DIM per person were dispensed, particularly to chronic users (2.8 DIM per person). Age and gender distribution differences were observed between the Castile and León medicine dispensation registry data and the drivers’ license census data. Of all DIM dispensed, 83.8% were in the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical code group nervous system medicines (N), which were prescribed to 29.2% of the population. Conclusions The use of DIM was frequent in the general population. Chronic use was common, but acute and subacute use should also be considered. This finding highlights the need to make patients, health professionals, health providers, medicine regulatory agencies and policy-makers at large aware of the role DIM play in traffic safety. PMID:29170289

The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

PubMed

Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

2014-09-01

Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

Frequency of temporomandibular disorders diagnoses based on RDC/TMD in a Polish patient population.

PubMed

Osiewicz, Magdalena A; Lobbezoo, Frank; Loster, Bartłomiej W; Loster, Jolanta E; Manfredini, Daniele

2017-08-09

To assess the frequency and age distribution of Axis I and Axis II diagnoses among Polish patients with temporomandibular disorders (TMD). One hundred sixty-three (n = 163) consecutive adult patients seeking TMD treatment were assessed based on the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD) guidelines. Descriptive statistics on the frequency of diagnoses and mean age of the diagnostic groups was performed. Frequency of muscle disorders, disc displacements, and other joint disorders was 56.9, 48.9, and 31%, respectively. Disc displacement was the most common diagnosis in younger patients. Severe somatization and depression were shown in 11.9 and 15.8% of patients, respectively. Only 10.5% of the patients showed severe pain-related impairment. Females tended to have higher psychosocial scores than males. The frequency of Axis I TMD diagnoses in Polish patients is similar to other populations, whereas Axis II findings slightly differ from previous reports from other countries.

Incidence of diabetes-related complications in Chinese patients with type 1 diabetes: a population-based longitudinal cohort study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Ou, Huang-Tz; Lee, Tsung-Ying; Li, Chung-Yi; Wu, Jin-Shang; Sun, Zih-Jie

2017-06-21

To estimate the incidence densities and cumulative incidence of diabetes-related complications in patients with type 1 diabetes for a maximum of 15-year follow-up. The estimations were further stratified by gender and age at diagnosis (ie, early onset: 0-12 years, late onset:≥13 years). A population-based retrospective longitudinal cohort study. Taiwan's National Health Insurance medical claims. 4007 patients newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes were identified during 1999-2012. Acute complications included diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and hypoglycaemia. Chronic complications were cardiovascular diseases (CVD), retinopathy, neuropathy and nephropathy. The incidence density of retinopathy was greatest (97.74 per 1000 person-years), followed by those of nephropathy (31.36), neuropathy (23.93) and CVD (4.39). Among acute complications, the incidence density of DKA was greatest (121.11 per 1000 person-years). The cumulative incidences of acute complications after 12 years following diagnosis were estimated to be 52.1%, 36.1% and 4.1% for DKA, outpatient hypoglycaemia and hospitalised hypoglycaemia, respectively. For chronic complications, the cumulative incidence of retinopathy after 12 years following diagnosis was greatest (65.2%), followed by those of nephropathy (30.2%), neuropathy (23.7%) and CVD (4.1%). Females with late-onset diabetes were greatly affected by advanced retinopathy (ie, sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy) and hospitalised hypoglycaemia, whereas those with early-onset diabetes were more vulnerable to DKA. Chronic complications were more commonly seen in late-onset diabetes, whereas early-onset diabetes were most affected by acute complications. Ethnic Chinese patients with type 1 diabetes were greatly affected by DKA and retinopathy. The incidence of diabetes-related complications differed by age at diagnosis and sex. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

Suicide in obsessive-compulsive disorder: a population-based study of 36 788 Swedish patients.

PubMed

Fernández de la Cruz, L; Rydell, M; Runeson, B; D'Onofrio, B M; Brander, G; Rück, C; Lichtenstein, P; Larsson, H; Mataix-Cols, D

2017-11-01

The risk of death by suicide in individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is largely unknown. Previous studies have been small and methodologically flawed. We analyzed data from the Swedish national registers to estimate the risk of suicide in OCD and identify the risk and protective factors associated with suicidal behavior in this group. We used a matched case-cohort design to estimate the risk of deaths by suicide and attempted suicide in individuals diagnosed with OCD, compared with matched general population controls (1:10). Cox regression models were used to study predictors of suicidal behavior. We identified 36 788 OCD patients in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1969 and 2013. Of these, 545 had died by suicide and 4297 had attempted suicide. In unadjusted models, individuals with OCD had an increased risk of both dying by suicide (odds ratio (OR)=9.83 (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.72-11.08)) and attempting suicide (OR=5.45 (95% CI, 5.24-5.67)), compared with matched controls. After adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities, the risk was reduced but remained substantial for both death by suicide and attempted suicide. Within the OCD cohort, a previous suicide attempt was the strongest predictor of death by suicide. Having a comorbid personality or substance use disorder also increased the risk of suicide. Being a woman, higher parental education and having a comorbid anxiety disorder were protective factors. We conclude that patients with OCD are at a substantial risk of suicide. Importantly, this risk remains substantial after adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities. Suicide risk should be carefully monitored in patients with OCD.

Suicide in obsessive–compulsive disorder: a population-based study of 36 788 Swedish patients

PubMed Central

Fernández de la Cruz, L; Rydell, M; Runeson, B; D'Onofrio, B M; Brander, G; Rück, C; Lichtenstein, P; Larsson, H; Mataix-Cols, D

2017-01-01

The risk of death by suicide in individuals with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) is largely unknown. Previous studies have been small and methodologically flawed. We analyzed data from the Swedish national registers to estimate the risk of suicide in OCD and identify the risk and protective factors associated with suicidal behavior in this group. We used a matched case–cohort design to estimate the risk of deaths by suicide and attempted suicide in individuals diagnosed with OCD, compared with matched general population controls (1:10). Cox regression models were used to study predictors of suicidal behavior. We identified 36 788 OCD patients in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1969 and 2013. Of these, 545 had died by suicide and 4297 had attempted suicide. In unadjusted models, individuals with OCD had an increased risk of both dying by suicide (odds ratio (OR)=9.83 (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.72–11.08)) and attempting suicide (OR=5.45 (95% CI, 5.24–5.67)), compared with matched controls. After adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities, the risk was reduced but remained substantial for both death by suicide and attempted suicide. Within the OCD cohort, a previous suicide attempt was the strongest predictor of death by suicide. Having a comorbid personality or substance use disorder also increased the risk of suicide. Being a woman, higher parental education and having a comorbid anxiety disorder were protective factors. We conclude that patients with OCD are at a substantial risk of suicide. Importantly, this risk remains substantial after adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities. Suicide risk should be carefully monitored in patients with OCD. PMID:27431293

Phase of care prevalence for prostate cancer in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based modelling study.

PubMed

Yu, Xue Qin; Luo, Qingwei; Smith, David P; Clements, Mark S; Patel, Manish I; O'Connell, Dianne L

2017-01-01

To develop a method for estimating the future numbers of prostate cancer survivors requiring different levels of care. Analysis of population-based cancer registry data for prostate cancer cases (aged 18-84 years) diagnosed in 1996-2007, and a linked dataset with hospital admission data for men with prostate cancer diagnosed during 2005-2007 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Cancer registry data (1996-2007) were used to project complete prostate cancer prevalence in NSW, Australia for 2008-2017, and treatment information from hospital records (2005-2007) was used to estimate the inpatient care needs during the first year after diagnosis. The projected complete prevalence was divided into care needs-based groups. We first divided the cohort into two groups based on patient's age (<75 and 75-84 years). The younger cohort was further divided into initial care and monitoring phases. Cause of death data were used as a proxy for patients requiring last year of life prostate cancer care. Finally, episode data were used to estimate the future number of cases with metastatic progression. Of the estimated total of 60,910 men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in 2017, the largest groups will be older patients (52.0%) and younger men who require monitoring (42.5%). If current treatment patterns continue, in the first year post-diagnosis 41% (1380) of patients (<75 years) will have a radical prostatectomy, and 52.6% (1752) will be likely to have either active surveillance, external beam radiotherapy or androgen deprivation therapy. About 3% will require care for subsequent metastases, and 1288 men with prostate cancer are likely to die from the disease in 2017. This method extends the application of routinely collected population-based data, and can contribute much to the knowledge of the number of men with prostate cancer and their health care requirements. This could be of significant use in planning future cancer care services and facilities in Australia.

Treatment and survival in a population-based sample of patients diagnosed with gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Cronin-Fenton, Deirdre P; Mooney, Margaret M; Clegg, Limin X; Harlan, Linda C

2008-01-01

AIM: To examine the extent of use of specific therapies in clinical practice, and their relationship to therapies validated in clinical trials. METHODS: The US National Cancer Institutes’ Patterns of Care study was used to examine therapies and survival of patients diagnosed in 2001 with histologically-confirmed gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (n = 1356). The study re-abstracted data and verified therapy with treating physicians for a population-based stratified random sample. RESULTS: Approximately 62% of patients had stomach adenocarcinoma (SAC), while 22% had gastric-cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and 16% lower esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Stage IV/unstaged esophageal cancer patients were most likely and stage I-III stomach cancer patients least likely to receive chemotherapy as all or part of their therapy; gastric-cardia patients received chemotherapy at a rate between these two. In multivariable analysis by anatomic site, patients 70 years and older were significantly less likely than younger patients to receive chemotherapy alone or chemoradiation for all three anatomic sites. Among esophageal and stomach cancer patients, receipt of chemotherapy was associated with lower mortality; but no association was found among gastric-cardia patients. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the relatively low use of clinical trials-validated anti-cancer therapies in community practice. Use of chemotherapy-based treatment was associated with lower mortality, dependent on anatomic site. Findings suggest that physicians treat lower esophageal and SAC as two distinct entities, while gastric-cardia patients receive a mix of the treatment strategies employed for the two other sites. PMID:18506920

Genotyping faecal samples of Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris for population estimation: a pilot study.

PubMed

Bhagavatula, Jyotsna; Singh, Lalji

2006-10-17

Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris the National Animal of India, is an endangered species. Estimating populations for such species is the main objective for designing conservation measures and for evaluating those that are already in place. Due to the tiger's cryptic and secretive behaviour, it is not possible to enumerate and monitor its populations through direct observations; instead indirect methods have always been used for studying tigers in the wild. DNA methods based on non-invasive sampling have not been attempted so far for tiger population studies in India. We describe here a pilot study using DNA extracted from faecal samples of tigers for the purpose of population estimation. In this study, PCR primers were developed based on tiger-specific variations in the mitochondrial cytochrome b for reliably identifying tiger faecal samples from those of sympatric carnivores. Microsatellite markers were developed for the identification of individual tigers with a sibling Probability of Identity of 0.005 that can distinguish even closely related individuals with 99.9% certainty. The effectiveness of using field-collected tiger faecal samples for DNA analysis was evaluated by sampling, identification and subsequently genotyping samples from two protected areas in southern India. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of using tiger faecal matter as a potential source of DNA for population estimation of tigers in protected areas in India in addition to the methods currently in use.

Assessment of Demirjian's 8-teeth technique of age estimation and Indian-specific formulas in an East Indian population: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Rath, Hemamalini; Rath, Rachna; Mahapatra, Sandeep; Debta, Tribikram

2017-01-01

The age of an individual can be assessed by a plethora of widely available tooth-based techniques, among which radiological methods prevail. The Demirjian's technique of age assessment based on tooth development stages has been extensively investigated in different populations of the world. The present study is to assess the applicability of Demirjian's modified 8-teeth technique in age estimation of population of East India (Odisha), utilizing Acharya's Indian-specific cubic functions. One hundred and six pretreatment orthodontic radiographs of patients in an age group of 7-23 years with representation from both genders were assessed for eight left mandibular teeth and scored as per the Demirjian's 9-stage criteria for teeth development stages. Age was calculated on the basis of Acharya's Indian formula. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the estimated and actual age. All data were analyzed using SPSS 20.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA) and MS Excel Package. The results revealed that the mean absolute error (MAE) in age estimation of the entire sample was 1.3 years with 50% of the cases having an error rate within ± 1 year. The MAE in males and females (7-16 years) was 1.8 and 1.5, respectively. Likewise, the MAE in males and females (16.1-23 years) was 1.1 and 1.3, respectively. The low error rate in estimating age justifies the application of this modified technique and Acharya's Indian formulas in the present East Indian population.

Nearly Full Employment Recovery Among South African HIV Patients On Antiretroviral Therapy: Evidence From A Large Population Cohort

PubMed Central

Bor, Jacob; Tanser, Frank; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2013-01-01

Antiretroviral therapy for HIV may have important economic benefits for patients and their households. We quantified the impact of HIV treatment on employment status among HIV patients in rural South Africa who were enrolled in a public-sector HIV treatment program supported by the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. We linked clinical data from more than 2000 patients in the treatment program with ten years of longitudinal socioeconomic data from a complete community-based population cohort of over 30,000 adults residing in the clinical catchment area. We estimated the employment effects of HIV treatment in fixed effects regressions. Four years after the initiation of antiretroviral therapy, employment among HIV patients had recovered to about 90 percent of baseline rates observed in the same patients three to five years before they started treatment. Many patients initiated treatment early enough that they were able to avoid any loss of employment due to HIV. These results represent the first estimates of employment recovery among HIV patients in a general population, relative to the employment levels that these patients had prior to job-threatening illness and the decision to seek care. We find large economic benefits to HIV treatment. For some patients, further gains could be obtained from initiating antiretroviral therapy earlier, prior to HIV-related job loss. PMID:22778335

The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Geon Woo; Lee, Yong Jin; Kim, Youngeun; Hong, Seung-Han; Kim, Soohwaun; Kim, Jeong Soo; Lee, Jong Tae; Shin, Dong Chun; Lim, Youngwook

2017-01-01

Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.

Estimation of the Population Susceptibility Against Measles in Slovakia.

PubMed

Zibolenová, Jana; Chladná, Zuzana; Švihrová, Viera; Baška, Tibor; Waczulíková, Iveta; Hudečková, Henrieta

2017-03-01

In Slovakia, thanks to a highly effective vaccination programme, no domestic cases of measles have been reported since 1999. However, there are several outbreaks of measles currently hitting some countries in Europe. Difficulties in reaching the goal of measles elimination make it necessary to monitor the status of the population susceptibility to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. We hypothesize that immunity wanes overtime, which can substantially impact the population susceptibility. This work introduces a model that estimates a proportion of individuals susceptible to measles in the Slovak population in 2015. Our analysis is based on an age-cohort model that incorporates waning immunity, vaccination schedule and changes in demographic structure. The inputs of the model are data on the vaccination coverage, last seroprevalence survey in 2002 and age structure of the population. In a short-term horizon, waning immunity does not affect the estimated proportion of the susceptible population. However, in a long-term horizon, the antibody titers can fall below the level of protection, which would result in a substantial transfer of initially immune individuals to the compartment of the susceptible ones. Incorporating of waning immunity in the cohort model has indicated that the most susceptible cohorts are not-vaccinated youngest children and cohorts born between 1969 and 1986. Applying the model to the current situation shows that people aged 30-45 years and unvaccinated infants represent the most susceptible groups. Model partially replaces missing seroprevalence survey, but, because the parameters of model and phenomenon of waning immunity are not exactly known, we suggest reintroducing the regular national serosurveys in order to empirically determine the level of susceptibility for measles in Slovakia. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Postoperative radioactive iodine-131 ablation is not necessary among patients with intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma: a population-based study.

PubMed

Zhang, Hong; Cai, Yuechang; Zheng, Li; Zhang, Zhanlei; Jiang, Ningyi

2017-01-01

To assess the effectiveness of radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation among patients with intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) following surgery. This population based study obtained information from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Research Data (1973-2013). National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Programme, Surveillance Systems Branch, released April 2016, based on the November 2015 submission. A total of 93,530 patients with primary thyroid cancer were identified in the SEER database during the period of 2004-2013 and focused on patients with DTC post-operatively treated or not treated with radioactive iodine (RAI). From these 9,127 patients were selected who had intermediate-risk DTC. A total of 8,601 patients were included in this study. For the overall population, the mean age of the population was 47.3 years and the majority were female (70.5%). Kaplan-Meier analysis found the mean overall survival time (os) for subjects with no radiation therapy which was 112.9 months and 114.9 months for those who received RAI ablation treatment (P<0.001). However, thyroid cancer-specific survival was not significantly different between treatment groups (117.7 vs. 118.0 months, log-rank test P=0.164). Overall survival and thyroid cancer-specific 1 year, 5 years, and 10-years survival rates were ≥89.8% and were similar between both treated groups. Multivariate analysis found age, gender, histologic type, and degree of lymph node metastases to be associated with OS, and age, gender, degree of lymph node metastasis and extra-thyroid tumor spread were independent factors for cancer-specific survival. In DTC patients with intermediate cancer risk multivariate analysis found that RAI was associated with a reduced risk of mortality compared with no radiation therapy (HR=0.710, 95% CI: 0.562-0.897, P=0.004) but no significant difference was seen in cancer-specific survival, either based on whole study population or on