Is this the right normalization? A diagnostic tool for ChIP-seq normalization.

PubMed

Angelini, Claudia; Heller, Ruth; Volkinshtein, Rita; Yekutieli, Daniel

2015-05-09

Chip-seq experiments are becoming a standard approach for genome-wide profiling protein-DNA interactions, such as detecting transcription factor binding sites, histone modification marks and RNA Polymerase II occupancy. However, when comparing a ChIP sample versus a control sample, such as Input DNA, normalization procedures have to be applied in order to remove experimental source of biases. Despite the substantial impact that the choice of the normalization method can have on the results of a ChIP-seq data analysis, their assessment is not fully explored in the literature. In particular, there are no diagnostic tools that show whether the applied normalization is indeed appropriate for the data being analyzed. In this work we propose a novel diagnostic tool to examine the appropriateness of the estimated normalization procedure. By plotting the empirical densities of log relative risks in bins of equal read count, along with the estimated normalization constant, after logarithmic transformation, the researcher is able to assess the appropriateness of the estimated normalization constant. We use the diagnostic plot to evaluate the appropriateness of the estimates obtained by CisGenome, NCIS and CCAT on several real data examples. Moreover, we show the impact that the choice of the normalization constant can have on standard tools for peak calling such as MACS or SICER. Finally, we propose a novel procedure for controlling the FDR using sample swapping. This procedure makes use of the estimated normalization constant in order to gain power over the naive choice of constant (used in MACS and SICER), which is the ratio of the total number of reads in the ChIP and Input samples. Linear normalization approaches aim to estimate a scale factor, r, to adjust for different sequencing depths when comparing ChIP versus Input samples. The estimated scaling factor can easily be incorporated in many peak caller algorithms to improve the accuracy of the peak identification. The diagnostic plot proposed in this paper can be used to assess how adequate ChIP/Input normalization constants are, and thus it allows the user to choose the most adequate estimate for the analysis.

Peak oxygen consumption measured during the stair-climbing test in lung resection candidates.

PubMed

Brunelli, Alessandro; Xiumé, Francesco; Refai, Majed; Salati, Michele; Di Nunzio, Luca; Pompili, Cecilia; Sabbatini, Armando

2010-01-01

The stair-climbing test is commonly used in the preoperative evaluation of lung resection candidates, but it is difficult to standardize and provides little physiologic information on the performance. To verify the association between the altitude and the V(O2peak) measured during the stair-climbing test. 109 consecutive candidates for lung resection performed a symptom-limited stair-climbing test with direct breath-by-breath measurement of V(O2peak) by a portable gas analyzer. Stepwise logistic regression and bootstrap analyses were used to verify the association of several perioperative variables with a V(O2peak) <15 ml/kg/min. Subsequently, multiple regression analysis was also performed to develop an equation to estimate V(O2peak) from stair-climbing parameters and other patient-related variables. 56% of patients climbing <14 m had a V(O2peak) <15 ml/kg/min, whereas 98% of those climbing >22 m had a V(O2peak) >15 ml/kg/min. The altitude reached at stair-climbing test resulted in the only significant predictor of a V(O2peak) <15 ml/kg/min after logistic regression analysis. Multiple regression analysis yielded an equation to estimate V(O2peak) factoring altitude (p < 0.0001), speed of ascent (p = 0.005) and body mass index (p = 0.0008). There was an association between altitude and V(O2peak) measured during the stair-climbing test. Most of the patients climbing more than 22 m are able to generate high values of V(O2peak) and can proceed to surgery without any additional tests. All others need to be referred for a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test. In addition, we were able to generate an equation to estimate V(O2peak), which could assist in streamlining the preoperative workup and could be used across different settings to standardize this test. Copyright (c) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Stochastic approach for an unbiased estimation of the probability of a successful separation in conventional chromatography and sequential elution liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Ennis, Erin J; Foley, Joe P

2016-07-15

A stochastic approach was utilized to estimate the probability of a successful isocratic or gradient separation in conventional chromatography for numbers of sample components, peak capacities, and saturation factors ranging from 2 to 30, 20-300, and 0.017-1, respectively. The stochastic probabilities were obtained under conditions of (i) constant peak width ("gradient" conditions) and (ii) peak width increasing linearly with time ("isocratic/constant N" conditions). The isocratic and gradient probabilities obtained stochastically were compared with the probabilities predicted by Martin et al. [Anal. Chem., 58 (1986) 2200-2207] and Davis and Stoll [J. Chromatogr. A, (2014) 128-142]; for a given number of components and peak capacity the same trend is always observed: probability obtained with the isocratic stochastic approach

An improved peak frequency shift method for Q estimation based on generalized seismic wavelet function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qian; Gao, Jinghuai

2018-02-01

As a powerful tool for hydrocarbon detection and reservoir characterization, the quality factor, Q, provides useful information in seismic data processing and interpretation. In this paper, we propose a novel method for Q estimation. The generalized seismic wavelet (GSW) function was introduced to fit the amplitude spectrum of seismic waveforms with two parameters: fractional value and reference frequency. Then we derive an analytical relation between the GSW function and the Q factor of the medium. When a seismic wave propagates through a viscoelastic medium, the GSW function can be employed to fit the amplitude spectrum of the source and attenuated wavelets, then the fractional values and reference frequencies can be evaluated numerically from the discrete Fourier spectrum. After calculating the peak frequency based on the obtained fractional value and reference frequency, the relationship between the GSW function and the Q factor can be built by the conventional peak frequency shift method. Synthetic tests indicate that our method can achieve higher accuracy and be more robust to random noise compared with existing methods. Furthermore, the proposed method is applicable to different types of source wavelet. Field data application also demonstrates the effectiveness of our method in seismic attenuation and the potential in the reservoir characteristic.

Elevated Peak Postoperative B-type Natriuretic Peptide Predicts Decreased Longer-Term Physical Function after Primary Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

PubMed Central

Fox, Amanda A.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Collard, Charles D.; Thoma, Mathis; Perry, Tjorvi E.; Shernan, Stanton K.; Muehlschlegel, Jochen D.; Body, Simon C.

2011-01-01

Background Elevated peak postoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is associated with increased major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Whether elevated postoperative BNP predicts worse post-discharge physical function (PF) is unknown. We hypothesized that peak postoperative BNP associates with PF assessed up to 2 years after CABG surgery, even after adjusting for clinical risk factors including preoperative PF. Methods This two institution prospective cohort study included patients undergoing primary CABG surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Short Form-36 questionnaires were administered to subjects preoperatively and 6 months, 1 and 2 years postoperatively. Short Form-36 PF domain scores were calculated using the Short Form-36 norm based scoring algorithm. Plasma BNP concentrations measured preoperatively and on postoperative days 1–5 were log10 transformed before analysis. To determine whether peak postoperative BNP independently predicts PF scores 6 months through 2 years after CABG surgery, multivariable longitudinal regression analysis of the postoperative PF scores was performed, adjusting for important clinical risk factors. Results 845 subjects (mean age±SD: 65±10 years) were analyzed. Peak postoperative BNP was significantly associated with postoperative PF (effect estimate for log10 peak BNP = −7.66 PF score points; 95% CI = −9.68, −5.64; P=<0.0001). After multivariable adjustments, peak postoperative BNP remained independently associated with postoperative PF (effect estimate for log10 peak BNP =−3.06 PF score points; 95% CI = −5.15, −0.97; P=0.004). Conclusions Elevated peak postoperative BNP independently associates with worse longer-term physical function after primary CABG surgery. Future studies are needed to determine whether medical management targeted towards reducing elevated postoperative BNP can improve PF after CABG surgery. PMID:21427536

Peak ground motion predictions with empirical site factors using Taiwan Strong Motion Network recordings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Jen-Kuang

2013-09-01

A stochastic method called the random vibration theory (Boore, 1983) has been used to estimate the peak ground motions caused by shallow moderate-to-large earthquakes in the Taiwan area. Adopting Brune's ω-square source spectrum, attenuation models for PGA and PGV were derived from path-dependent parameters which were empirically modeled from about one thousand accelerograms recorded at reference sites mostly located in a mountain area and which have been recognized as rock sites without soil amplification. Consequently, the predicted horizontal peak ground motions at the reference sites, are generally comparable to these observed. A total number of 11,915 accelerograms recorded from 735 free-field stations of the Taiwan Strong Motion Network (TSMN) were used to estimate the site factors by taking the motions from the predictive models as references. Results from soil sites reveal site amplification factors of approximately 2.0 ~ 3.5 for PGA and about 1.3 ~ 2.6 for PGV. Finally, as a result of amplitude corrections with those empirical site factors, about 75% of analyzed earthquakes are well constrained in ground motion predictions, having average misfits ranging from 0.30 to 0.50. In addition, two simple indices, R 0.57 and R 0.38, are proposed in this study to evaluate the validity of intensity map prediction for public information reports. The average percentages of qualified stations for peak acceleration residuals less than R 0.57 and R 0.38 can reach 75% and 54%, respectively, for most earthquakes. Such a performance would be good enough to produce a faithful intensity map for a moderate scenario event in the Taiwan region.

Characterizing Macro Scale Patterns Of Uncertainty For Improved Operational Flood Forecasting Over The Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Gourley, J. J.; Flamig, Z.; Hong, Y.

2015-12-01

The macro scale patterns of simulated streamflow errors are studied in order to characterize uncertainty in a hydrologic modeling system forced with the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS; http://mrms.ou.edu) quantitative precipitation estimates for flood forecasting over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). The hydrologic model is centerpiece of the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrograph (FLASH; http://flash.ou.edu) real-time system. The hydrologic model is implemented at 1-km/5-min resolution to generate estimates of streamflow. Data from the CONUS-wide stream gauge network of the United States' Geological Survey (USGS) were used as a reference to evaluate the discrepancies with the hydrological model predictions. Streamflow errors were studied at the event scale with particular focus on the peak flow magnitude and timing. A total of 2,680 catchments over CONUS and 75,496 events from a 10-year period are used for the simulation diagnostic analysis. Associations between streamflow errors and geophysical factors were explored and modeled. It is found that hydro-climatic factors and radar coverage could explain significant underestimation of peak flow in regions of complex terrain. Furthermore, the statistical modeling of peak flow errors shows that other geophysical factors such as basin geomorphometry, pedology, and land cover/use could also provide explanatory information. Results from this research demonstrate the utility of uncertainty characterization in providing guidance to improve model adequacy, parameter estimates, and input quality control. Likewise, the characterization of uncertainty enables probabilistic flood forecasting that can be extended to ungauged locations.

Global Oil: Relax, the End Is Not Near

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, W. L.

2004-12-01

Global oil production will peak within the next 25 to 30 years, but peaking will be a function of demand, not supply, as the methane economy comes into full play. Analysts who predict near-term peaking of global oil production generally use some variant of Hubbert's symmetrical life cycle method. The amount of ultimately recoverable oil is assumed to be known and peaking will occur when half that amount is exhausted. In reality, ultimate recovery volumes are not known, but estimated, and estimates vary by a factor of two; production profiles are not necessarily symmetrical. Further assumptions are that the resource base is inelastic, not significantly expandable through technology and new concepts. The historical experience is quite to the contrary. Projections of near-term peaking ignore or discount field reserve growth, the most dynamic element in reserve additions of the past 25 years and one with the future potential equal to that of new field discovery. Future global demand for oil will likely amount to between 1.5 to 2.0 trillion barrels, well within the more realistic estimates of global recovery volumes. The real challenge is not oil, but natural gas where future global demand will likely exceed 25,000 trillion cubic feet. But it too will be met in sufficient volumes to bring us into the hydrogen economy some 50 to 60 years from now.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges from urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, L.D.

1986-01-01

Techniques are defined for estimating the magnitude and frequency of future flood peak discharges of rainfall-induced runoff from small urban basins in Missouri. These techniques were developed from an initial analysis of flood records of 96 gaged sites in Missouri and adjacent states. Final regression equations are based on a balanced, representative sampling of 37 gaged sites in Missouri. This sample included 9 statewide urban study sites, 18 urban sites in St. Louis County, and 10 predominantly rural sites statewide. Short-term records were extended on the basis of long-term climatic records and use of a rainfall-runoff model. Linear least-squares regression analyses were used with log-transformed variables to relate flood magnitudes of selected recurrence intervals (dependent variables) to selected drainage basin indexes (independent variables). For gaged urban study sites within the State, the flood peak estimates are from the frequency curves defined from the synthesized long-term discharge records. Flood frequency estimates are made for ungaged sites by using regression equations that require determination of the drainage basin size and either the percentage of impervious area or a basin development factor. Alternative sets of equations are given for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-yr recurrence interval floods. The average standard errors of estimate range from about 33% for the 2-yr flood to 26% for the 100-yr flood. The techniques for estimation are applicable to flood flows that are not significantly affected by storage caused by manmade activities. Flood peak discharge estimating equations are considered applicable for sites on basins draining approximately 0.25 to 40 sq mi. (Author 's abstract)

Predictors of VO2Peak in children age 6- to 7-years-old.

PubMed

Dencker, Magnus; Hermansen, Bianca; Bugge, Anna; Froberg, Karsten; Andersen, Lars B

2011-02-01

This study investigated the predictors of aerobic fitness (VO2PEAK) in young children on a population-base. Participants were 436 children (229 boys and 207 girls) aged 6.7 ± 0.4 yrs. VO2PEAK was measured during a maximal treadmill exercise test. Physical activity was assessed by accelerometers. Total body fat and total fat free mass were estimated from skinfold measurements. Regression analyses indicated that significant predictors for VO2PEAK per kilogram body mass were total body fat, maximal heart rate, sex, and age. Physical activity explained an additional 4-7%. Further analyses showed the main contributing factors for absolute values of VO2PEAK were fat free mass, maximal heart rate, sex, and age. Physical activity explained an additional 3-6%.

Utility of Equations to Estimate Peak Oxygen Uptake and Work Rate From a 6-Minute Walk Test in Patients With COPD in a Clinical Setting.

PubMed

Kirkham, Amy A; Pauhl, Katherine E; Elliott, Robyn M; Scott, Jen A; Doria, Silvana C; Davidson, Hanan K; Neil-Sztramko, Sarah E; Campbell, Kristin L; Camp, Pat G

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of equations that use the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) results to estimate peak oxygen uptake ((Equation is included in full-text article.)o2) and peak work rate with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in a clinical setting. This study included a systematic review to identify published equations estimating peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate in watts in COPD patients and a retrospective chart review of data from a hospital-based pulmonary rehabilitation program. The following variables were abstracted from the records of 42 consecutively enrolled COPD patients: measured peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate achieved during a cycle ergometer cardiopulmonary exercise test, 6MWT distance, age, sex, weight, height, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, forced vital capacity, and lung diffusion capacity. Estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate were estimated from 6MWT distance using published equations. The error associated with using estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 or peak work to prescribe aerobic exercise intensities of 60% and 80% was calculated. Eleven equations from 6 studies were identified. Agreement between estimated and measured values was poor to moderate (intraclass correlation coefficients = 0.11-0.63). The error associated with using estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 or peak work rate to prescribe exercise intensities of 60% and 80% of measured values ranged from mean differences of 12 to 35 and 16 to 47 percentage points, respectively. There is poor to moderate agreement between measured peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate and estimations from equations that use 6MWT distance, and the use of the estimated values for prescription of aerobic exercise intensity would result in large error. Equations estimating peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate are of low utility for prescribing exercise intensity in pulmonary rehabilitation programs.

Gyrokinetic modeling of impurity peaking in JET H-mode plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manas, P.; Camenen, Y.; Benkadda, S.; Weisen, H.; Angioni, C.; Casson, F. J.; Giroud, C.; Gelfusa, M.; Maslov, M.

2017-06-01

Quantitative comparisons are presented between gyrokinetic simulations and experimental values of the carbon impurity peaking factor in a database of JET H-modes during the carbon wall era. These plasmas feature strong NBI heating and hence high values of toroidal rotation and corresponding gradient. Furthermore, the carbon profiles present particularly interesting shapes for fusion devices, i.e., hollow in the core and peaked near the edge. Dependencies of the experimental carbon peaking factor ( R / L nC ) on plasma parameters are investigated via multilinear regressions. A marked correlation between R / L nC and the normalised toroidal rotation gradient is observed in the core, which suggests an important role of the rotation in establishing hollow carbon profiles. The carbon peaking factor is then computed with the gyrokinetic code GKW, using a quasi-linear approach, supported by a few non-linear simulations. The comparison of the quasi-linear predictions to the experimental values at mid-radius reveals two main regimes. At low normalised collisionality, ν * , and T e / T i < 1 , the gyrokinetic simulations quantitatively recover experimental carbon density profiles, provided that rotodiffusion is taken into account. In contrast, at higher ν * and T e / T i > 1 , the very hollow experimental carbon density profiles are never predicted by the simulations and the carbon density peaking is systematically over estimated. This points to a possible missing ingredient in this regime.

Practical state of health estimation of power batteries based on Delphi method and grey relational grade analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bingxiang; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zheng, Fangdan; Zhao, Wei; Liaw, Bor Yann; Ruan, Haijun; Han, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Weige

2015-05-01

The state of health (SOH) estimation is very critical to battery management system to ensure the safety and reliability of EV battery operation. Here, we used a unique hybrid approach to enable complex SOH estimations. The approach hybridizes the Delphi method known for its simplicity and effectiveness in applying weighting factors for complicated decision-making and the grey relational grade analysis (GRGA) for multi-factor optimization. Six critical factors were used in the consideration for SOH estimation: peak power at 30% state-of-charge (SOC), capacity, the voltage drop at 30% SOC with a C/3 pulse, the temperature rises at the end of discharge and charge at 1C; respectively, and the open circuit voltage at the end of charge after 1-h rest. The weighting of these factors for SOH estimation was scored by the 'experts' in the Delphi method, indicating the influencing power of each factor on SOH. The parameters for these factors expressing the battery state variations are optimized by GRGA. Eight battery cells were used to illustrate the principle and methodology to estimate the SOH by this hybrid approach, and the results were compared with those based on capacity and power capability. The contrast among different SOH estimations is discussed.

Sensitivity analysis for best-estimate thermal models of vertical dry cask storage systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVoe, Remy R.; Robb, Kevin R.; Skutnik, Steven E.

Loading requirements for dry cask storage of spent nuclear fuel are driven primarily by decay heat capacity limitations, which themselves are determined through recommended limits on peak cladding temperature within the cask. This study examines the relative sensitivity of peak material temperatures within the cask to parameters that influence both the stored fuel residual decay heat as well as heat removal mechanisms. Here, these parameters include the detailed reactor operating history parameters (e.g., soluble boron concentrations and the presence of burnable poisons) as well as factors that influence heat removal, including non-dominant processes (such as conduction from the fuel basketmore » to the canister and radiation within the canister) and ambient environmental conditions. By examining the factors that drive heat removal from the cask alongside well-understood factors that drive decay heat, it is therefore possible to make a contextual analysis of the most important parameters to evaluation of peak material temperatures within the cask.« less

Sensitivity analysis for best-estimate thermal models of vertical dry cask storage systems

DOE PAGES

DeVoe, Remy R.; Robb, Kevin R.; Skutnik, Steven E.

2017-07-08

Loading requirements for dry cask storage of spent nuclear fuel are driven primarily by decay heat capacity limitations, which themselves are determined through recommended limits on peak cladding temperature within the cask. This study examines the relative sensitivity of peak material temperatures within the cask to parameters that influence both the stored fuel residual decay heat as well as heat removal mechanisms. Here, these parameters include the detailed reactor operating history parameters (e.g., soluble boron concentrations and the presence of burnable poisons) as well as factors that influence heat removal, including non-dominant processes (such as conduction from the fuel basketmore » to the canister and radiation within the canister) and ambient environmental conditions. By examining the factors that drive heat removal from the cask alongside well-understood factors that drive decay heat, it is therefore possible to make a contextual analysis of the most important parameters to evaluation of peak material temperatures within the cask.« less

A comparison of practical assessment methods to determine treadmill, cycle and elliptical ergometer VO2peak

PubMed Central

Mays, Ryan J.; Boér, Nicholas F.; Mealey, Lisa M.; Kim, Kevin H.; Goss, Fredric L.

2015-01-01

This investigation compared estimated and predicted peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) and maximal heart rate (HRmax) among the treadmill, cycle ergometer and elliptical ergometer. Seventeen women (mean ± SE: 21.9 ± .3 yrs) exercised to exhaustion on all modalities. ACSM metabolic equations were used to estimate VO2peak. Digital displays on the elliptical ergometer were used to estimate VO2peak. Two individual linear regression methods were used to predict VO2peak: 1) two steady state heart rate (HR) responses up to 85% of age-predicted HRmax, and 2) multiple steady state/non-steady state HR responses up to 85% of age-predicted HRmax. Estimated VO2peak for the treadmill (46.3 ± 1.3 ml · kg−1 · min−1) and the elliptical ergometer (44.4 ± 1.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) did not differ. The cycle ergometer estimated VO2peak (36.5 ± 1.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) was lower (p < .001) than the estimated VO2peak values for the treadmill and elliptical ergometer. Elliptical ergometer VO2peak predicted from steady state (51.4 ± .8 ml · kg−1 · min−1) and steady state/non-steady state (50.3 ± 2.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) models were higher than estimated elliptical ergometer VO2peak, p < .01. HRmax and estimates of VO2peak were similar between the treadmill and elliptical ergometer, thus cross-modal exercise prescriptions may be generated. The use of digital display estimates of submaximal oxygen uptake for the elliptical ergometer may not be an accurate method for predicting VO2peak. Health-fitness professionals should use caution when utilizing submaximal elliptical ergometer digital display estimates to predict VO2peak. PMID:20393357

Peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Peak-flow annual exceedance probabilities, also called probability-percent chance flow estimates, and regional regression equations are provided describing the peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate peak-flow data. Analysis of Virginia peak-flow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating unregulated peak flow of gaged and ungaged streams. Station peak-flow characteristics identified by fitting the logarithms of annual peak flows to a Log Pearson Type III frequency distribution yield annual exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.4292, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 for 476 streamgaging stations. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression model equations for six physiographic regions to estimate regional annual exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted peak-flow values that combine annual exceedance probabilities computed from gaging station data and from regional regression equations provide improved peak-flow estimates. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing selected peak-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, peak-flow estimates, basin characteristics, regional regression model equations, error estimates, definitions, data sources, and candidate regression model equations. This study supersedes previous studies of peak flows in Virginia.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Jason M.

2010-01-01

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Seasonal and interannual variations in CO and BC emissions from open biomass burning in Southern Africa during 1998-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Akinori; Ito, Akihiko; Akimoto, Hajime

2007-06-01

We estimate the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and black carbon (BC) from open vegetation fires in the Southern Hemisphere Africa from 1998 to 2005 using satellite information in conjunction with a biogeochemical model. Monthly burned areas at a 0.5-degree resolution are estimated from the Visible InfraRed Scanner (VIRS) fire count product and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area data set associated with the MODIS tree cover imagery in grasslands and woodlands. The monthly fuel load distributions are derived from a 0.5-degree terrestrial carbon cycle model in conjunction with satellite data. The monthly maps of combustion factors and emission factors are estimated using empirical models that predict the effects of fuel conditions on these factors in grasslands and woodlands. Our annually averaged effective CO and BC emissions per area burned are 27 g CO m-2 and 0.17 g BC m-2 which are consistent with the products of fuel consumption and emission factors typically measured in southern Africa. The CO and BC emissions from open vegetation burning in southern Africa range from 45 Tg CO yr-1 and 0.26 Tg BC yr-1 for 2002 to 75 Tg CO yr-1 and 0.42 Tg BC yr-1 for 1998. The monthly averaged burned areas from VIRS fire counts peak earlier than modeled CO emissions. This characteristic delay between burned areas and emissions is mainly explained by significant changes in combustion factors for woodlands in our model. Consequently, the peaks in CO and BC emissions from our bottom-up approach are identical to those from previous top-down estimates using the Measurement Of the Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) data.

Direct Estimation of Power Distribution in Reactors for Nuclear Thermal Space Propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldemir, Tunc; Miller, Don W.; Burghelea, Andrei

2004-02-01

A recently proposed constant temperature power sensor (CTPS) has the capability to directly measure the local power deposition rate in nuclear reactor cores proposed for space thermal propulsion. Such a capability reduces the uncertainties in the estimated power peaking factors and hence increases the reliability of the nuclear engine. The CTPS operation is sensitive to the changes in the local thermal conditions. A procedure is described for the automatic on-line calibration of the sensor through estimation of changes in thermal .conditions.

Pics d'accélération du mouvement sismique observés lors du séisme de Chichi à Taiwan : application à l'estimation de l'aléa sismiqueAnalysis of peak ground accelerations during the Chichi earthquake, Taiwan: application to seismic hazard evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tsui-Yu; Cotton, Fabrice; Angelier, Jacques; Shin, Tzay-Chyn

2001-07-01

Attenuation laws are widely used in order to estimate the peak ground acceleration that may occur at a given locality during an earthquake, for hazard evaluation purposes. However, these simplified laws should be regarded acceptable only in the first approximation, because numerous significant parameters at the local and regional scales are often ignored. We examined the relationship between distance and peak acceleration based on examples from the dense accelerometric network of Taiwan, specifically for the Chichi destructive earthquake. We thus observed significant discrepancies between the predicted and observed accelerations, resulting from (1) near-field saturation, (2) amplification in sedimentary basins, and (3) hanging wall effect. We mapped the residual accelerations (difference between observed and predicted peak ground accelerations). This highlights the role of the regional structure, independently revealed by the geological analysis, as a significant factor that controls the transmission of the seismic accelerations.

The relevance of echocardiography heart measures for breeding against the risk of subaortic and pulmonic stenosis in Boxer dogs.

PubMed

Menegazzo, L; Bussadori, C; Chiavegato, D; Quintavalla, C; Bonfatti, V; Guglielmini, C; Sturaro, E; Gallo, L; Carnier, P

2012-02-01

The aims of this study were to investigate the role and relative importance of auscultation and echocardiography traits as risk factors for the diagnosis of subaortic (SubAS) and pulmonic (PS) stenosis and to estimate the heritability (h(2)) of cardiac measurements taken through echocardiography for a random sample of Italian Boxer dogs. The data were cardiovascular examination results of 1,283 Italian Boxer dogs (686 females and 597 males) enrolled in the national screening program for heart defects arranged by the Italian Boxer Club. Examinations were performed during a 6-yr period by a group of 7 veterinary cardiologists following a standard protocol. Occurrence and severity of SubAS and PS were diagnosed, taking into account clinical and echocardiography findings such as the grade of cardiac murmur, direct ultrasound imaging of the anatomic obstructive lesions, and values of aortic or pulmonary blood flow velocities. A Bayesian logistic regression analysis was performed to identify clinical and echocardiography variables related to SubAS and PS diagnosis. Estimation of variance components for clinical and echocardiography traits was performed using a mixed linear animal model, Bayesian procedures, and the Gibbs sampler. Prevalence of SubAS (PS) was 8.4% (2.2) and 10.7% (6.4) for female and male dogs, respectively. Cardiac murmur, peak velocities, and annulus areas behaved as risk factors for SubAS and PS. The risk of a positive diagnosis for SubAS was 3 times greater for dogs with aortic annulus area <2.1 cm(2) relative to dogs with areas >2.37 cm(2), 84 times greater for dogs showing aortic peak velocities >2.19 m/s relative to dogs with peak velocities <1.97 m/s, and 41 times greater for dogs with moderate to severe murmur grades relative to dogs with absent murmur. Similar results were obtained for PS. The estimated h(2) for the occurrence of cardiac defects was 23.3% for SubAS and 8.6% for PS. Echocardiography and cardiac murmur grades exhibited moderate h(2) estimates and exploitable additive genetic variation. The estimated h(2) was 36, 24, and 20% for aortic annulus area, aortic peak velocity, and cardiac murmur score, respectively. For the area of the pulmonary annulus and peak pulmonary velocity, the estimated h(2) were smaller, ranging from 9.5 to 12.8%. These measures are candidate indicator traits that might be effectively used in dog breeding to reduce the prevalence and severity of cardiac defects.

Estimating Oxygen Needs for Childhood Pneumonia in Developing Country Health Systems: A New Model for Expecting the Unexpected

PubMed Central

Bradley, Beverly D.; Howie, Stephen R. C.; Chan, Timothy C. Y.; Cheng, Yu-Ling

2014-01-01

Background Planning for the reliable and cost-effective supply of a health service commodity such as medical oxygen requires an understanding of the dynamic need or ‘demand’ for the commodity over time. In developing country health systems, however, collecting longitudinal clinical data for forecasting purposes is very difficult. Furthermore, approaches to estimating demand for supplies based on annual averages can underestimate demand some of the time by missing temporal variability. Methods A discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate variable demand for a health service commodity using the important example of medical oxygen for childhood pneumonia. The model is based on five key factors affecting oxygen demand: annual pneumonia admission rate, hypoxaemia prevalence, degree of seasonality, treatment duration, and oxygen flow rate. These parameters were varied over a wide range of values to generate simulation results for different settings. Total oxygen volume, peak patient load, and hours spent above average-based demand estimates were computed for both low and high seasons. Findings Oxygen demand estimates based on annual average values of demand factors can often severely underestimate actual demand. For scenarios with high hypoxaemia prevalence and degree of seasonality, demand can exceed average levels up to 68% of the time. Even for typical scenarios, demand may exceed three times the average level for several hours per day. Peak patient load is sensitive to hypoxaemia prevalence, whereas time spent at such peak loads is strongly influenced by degree of seasonality. Conclusion A theoretical study is presented whereby a simulation approach to estimating oxygen demand is used to better capture temporal variability compared to standard average-based approaches. This approach provides better grounds for health service planning, including decision-making around technologies for oxygen delivery. Beyond oxygen, this approach is widely applicable to other areas of resource and technology planning in developing country health systems. PMID:24587089

A non-parametric peak calling algorithm for DamID-Seq.

PubMed

Li, Renhua; Hempel, Leonie U; Jiang, Tingbo

2015-01-01

Protein-DNA interactions play a significant role in gene regulation and expression. In order to identify transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) of double sex (DSX)-an important transcription factor in sex determination, we applied the DNA adenine methylation identification (DamID) technology to the fat body tissue of Drosophila, followed by deep sequencing (DamID-Seq). One feature of DamID-Seq data is that induced adenine methylation signals are not assured to be symmetrically distributed at TFBS, which renders the existing peak calling algorithms for ChIP-Seq, including SPP and MACS, inappropriate for DamID-Seq data. This challenged us to develop a new algorithm for peak calling. A challenge in peaking calling based on sequence data is estimating the averaged behavior of background signals. We applied a bootstrap resampling method to short sequence reads in the control (Dam only). After data quality check and mapping reads to a reference genome, the peaking calling procedure compromises the following steps: 1) reads resampling; 2) reads scaling (normalization) and computing signal-to-noise fold changes; 3) filtering; 4) Calling peaks based on a statistically significant threshold. This is a non-parametric method for peak calling (NPPC). We also used irreproducible discovery rate (IDR) analysis, as well as ChIP-Seq data to compare the peaks called by the NPPC. We identified approximately 6,000 peaks for DSX, which point to 1,225 genes related to the fat body tissue difference between female and male Drosophila. Statistical evidence from IDR analysis indicated that these peaks are reproducible across biological replicates. In addition, these peaks are comparable to those identified by use of ChIP-Seq on S2 cells, in terms of peak number, location, and peaks width.

Aeromagnetic Detection and Definition of Seamounts.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

airborne gravimetry may be feasible, al- though further testing is necessary. A possible difficulty may result from the problem of obtaining useful data on...high calcium precipitation . Hopefully, the curves will increase the "safety factor" by an under-estimation of seamount peak depths. Another problem

Adjusted peak-flow frequency estimates for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter D in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Sando, Roy; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The climatic conditions of the specific time period during which peak-flow data were collected at a given streamflow-gaging station (hereinafter referred to as gaging station) can substantially affect how well the peak-flow frequency (hereinafter referred to as frequency) results represent long-term hydrologic conditions. Differences in the timing of the periods of record can result in substantial inconsistencies in frequency estimates for hydrologically similar gaging stations. Potential for inconsistency increases with decreasing peak-flow record length. The representativeness of the frequency estimates for a short-term gaging station can be adjusted by various methods including weighting the at-site results in association with frequency estimates from regional regression equations (RREs) by using the Weighted Independent Estimates (WIE) program. Also, for gaging stations that cannot be adjusted by using the WIE program because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs, frequency estimates might be improved by using record extension procedures, including a mixed-station analysis using the maintenance of variance type I (MOVE.1) procedure. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to provide adjusted frequency estimates for selected gaging stations through water year 2011.The purpose of Chapter D of this Scientific Investigations Report is to present adjusted frequency estimates for 504 selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for the 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to the 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.The at-site frequency estimates were adjusted by weighting with frequency estimates from RREs using the WIE program for 438 selected gaging stations in Montana. These 438 selected gaging stations (1) had periods of record less than or equal to 40 years, (2) represented unregulated or minor regulation conditions, and (3) had drainage areas less than about 2,750 square miles.The weighted-average frequency estimates obtained by weighting with RREs generally are considered to provide improved frequency estimates. In some cases, there are substantial differences among the at-site frequency estimates, the regression-equation frequency estimates, and the weighted-average frequency estimates. In these cases, thoughtful consideration should be applied when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate. Some factors that might be considered when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate include (1) whether the specific gaging station has peak-flow characteristics that distinguish it from most other gaging stations used in developing the RREs for the hydrologic region; and (2) the length of the peak-flow record and the general climatic characteristics during the period when the peak-flow data were collected. For critical structure-design applications, a conservative approach would be to select the higher of the at-site frequency estimate and the weighted-average frequency estimate.The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure generally was applied in cases where three or more gaging stations were located on the same large river and some of the gaging stations could not be adjusted using the weighted-average method because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure was applied to 66 selected gaging stations on 19 large rivers.The general approach for using mixed-station record extension procedures to adjust at-site frequencies involved (1) determining appropriate base periods for the gaging stations on the large rivers, (2) synthesizing peak-flow data for the gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods by using the mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure, and (3) conducting frequency analysis on the combined recorded and synthesized peak-flow data for each gaging station. Frequency estimates for the combined recorded and synthesized datasets for 66 gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods are presented. The uncertainties in the mixed-station record extension results are difficult to directly quantify; thus, it is important to understand the intended use of the estimated frequencies based on analysis of the combined recorded and synthesized datasets. The estimated frequencies are considered general estimates of frequency relations among gaging stations on the same stream channel that might be expected if the gaging stations had been gaged during the same long-term base period. However, because the mixed-station record extension procedures involve secondary statistical analysis with accompanying errors, the uncertainty of the frequency estimates is larger than would be obtained by collecting systematic records for the same number of years in the base period.

Body Size of Male Youth Soccer Players: 1978-2015.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Figueiredo, António J; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

2017-10-01

Studies of the body size and proportions of athletes have a long history. Comparisons of athletes within specific sports across time, though not extensive, indicate both positive and negative trends. To evaluate secular variation in heights and weights of male youth soccer players reported in studies between 1978 and 2015. Reported mean ages, heights, and weights of male soccer players 9-18 years of age were extracted from the literature and grouped into two intervals: 1978-99 and 2000-15. A third-order polynomial was fitted to the mean heights and weights across the age range for each interval, while the Preece-Baines model 1 was fitted to the grand means of mean heights and mean weights within each chronological year to estimate ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity for each time interval. Third-order polynomials applied to all data points and estimates based on the Preece-Baines model applied to grand means for each age group provided similar fits. Both indicated secular changes in body size between the two intervals. Secular increases in height and weight between 1978-99 and 2000-15 were especially apparent between 13 and 16 years of age, but estimated ages at peak height velocity (13.01 and 12.91 years) and peak weight velocity (13.86 and 13.77 years) did not differ between the time intervals. Although the body size of youth soccer players increased between 1978-99 and 2000-15, estimated ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity did not change. The increase in height and weight likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions, in addition to the selectivity of soccer reflected in systematic selection and retention of players advanced in maturity status, and exclusion of late maturing players beginning at about 12-13 years of age. Enhanced training programs aimed at the development of strength and power are probably an additional factor contributing to secular increases in body weight.

Ensemble-based assimilation of fractional snow-covered area satellite retrievals to estimate the snow distribution at Arctic sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalstad, Kristoffer; Westermann, Sebastian; Vikhamar Schuler, Thomas; Boike, Julia; Bertino, Laurent

2018-01-01

With its high albedo, low thermal conductivity and large water storing capacity, snow strongly modulates the surface energy and water balance, which makes it a critical factor in mid- to high-latitude and mountain environments. However, estimating the snow water equivalent (SWE) is challenging in remote-sensing applications already at medium spatial resolutions of 1 km. We present an ensemble-based data assimilation framework that estimates the peak subgrid SWE distribution (SSD) at the 1 km scale by assimilating fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) satellite retrievals in a simple snow model forced by downscaled reanalysis data. The basic idea is to relate the timing of the snow cover depletion (accessible from satellite products) to the peak SSD. Peak subgrid SWE is assumed to be lognormally distributed, which can be translated to a modeled time series of fSCA through the snow model. Assimilation of satellite-derived fSCA facilitates the estimation of the peak SSD, while taking into account uncertainties in both the model and the assimilated data sets. As an extension to previous studies, our method makes use of the novel (to snow data assimilation) ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) scheme combined with analytical Gaussian anamorphosis to assimilate time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Sentinel-2 fSCA retrievals. The scheme is applied to Arctic sites near Ny-Ålesund (79° N, Svalbard, Norway) where field measurements of fSCA and SWE distributions are available. The method is able to successfully recover accurate estimates of peak SSD on most of the occasions considered. Through the ES-MDA assimilation, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the fSCA, peak mean SWE and peak subgrid coefficient of variation is improved by around 75, 60 and 20 %, respectively, when compared to the prior, yielding RMSEs of 0.01, 0.09 m water equivalent (w.e.) and 0.13, respectively. The ES-MDA either outperforms or at least nearly matches the performance of other ensemble-based batch smoother schemes with regards to various evaluation metrics. Given the modularity of the method, it could prove valuable for a range of satellite-era hydrometeorological reanalyses.

Fuel burnup analysis for IRIS reactor using MCNPX and WIMS-D5 codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, E. A.; Bashter, I. I.; Hassan, Nabil M.; Mustafa, S. S.

2017-02-01

International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) reactor is a compact power reactor designed with especial features. It contains Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber (IFBA). The core is heterogeneous both axially and radially. This work provides the full core burn up analysis for IRIS reactor using MCNPX and WIMDS-D5 codes. Criticality calculations, radial and axial power distributions and nuclear peaking factor at the different stages of burnup were studied. Effective multiplication factor values for the core were estimated by coupling MCNPX code with WIMS-D5 code and compared with SAS2H/KENO-V code values at different stages of burnup. The two calculation codes show good agreement and correlation. The values of radial and axial powers for the full core were also compared with published results given by SAS2H/KENO-V code (at the beginning and end of reactor operation). The behavior of both radial and axial power distribution is quiet similar to the other data published by SAS2H/KENO-V code. The peaking factor values estimated in the present work are close to its values calculated by SAS2H/KENO-V code.

Intraocular pressure change over a habitual 24-hour period after changing posture or drinking water and related factors in normal tension glaucoma.

PubMed

Sakata, Rei; Aihara, Makoto; Murata, Hiroshi; Saito, Hitomi; Iwase, Aiko; Yasuda, Noriko; Araie, Makoto

2013-08-07

We investigated the correlation between 24-hour IOP in the habitual (sitting during day and supine during night) position (H24h-IOP) and IOP after a postural-change test (PCT-IOP) and a water-drinking test (WDT-IOP). We also investigated ocular and systemic factors related with them in patients with normal tension glaucoma (NTG). Japanese NTG patients underwent H24h-IOP, PCT-IOP, and WDT-IOP measurements during a 24-hour period. Correlations among H24h-IOP, PCT-IOP, and WDT-IOP, and contributing ocular/systemic factors were investigated using regression analysis. There were 33 patients included. Peak H24h-IOP correlated positively with peak PCT-IOP and peak WDT-IOP (estimate = 0.422 and 0.419, P ≤ 0.010), and peak PCT-IOP with WDT-IOP (0.44, P = 0.002). Peak H24h-IOP correlated with refraction (0.36, P = 0.048) and negatively with the mean deviation (MD, -0.066, P = 0.031). MD and baseline IOP (the mean of H24h-IOP) correlated negatively with the H24h-IOP fluctuation (-0.058 and -0.58, P ≤ 0.050). Refraction, baseline IOP, mean blood pressure (mBP), and body mass index (BMI) correlated with peak PCT-IOP (0.23, 0.52, 0.097, and 0.32, respectively, P ≤ 0.038). PCT-IOP difference correlated with refraction and mBP (0.31 and 0.093, P ≤ 0.016) and negatively with age (-0.069, P = 0.003). Central corneal thickness, baseline IOP, age, and BMI correlated with peak WDT-IOP (0.030, 0.40, 0.088, and 0.26, P ≤ 0.050). Age and BMI correlated with WDT-IOP difference (0.086 and 0.20, P < 0.032). Positive correlation was found among the peaks of H24h-, PCT-, and WDT-IOP. A worse visual field was associated with higher peak and greater fluctuation of H24h-IOP in NTG. Several ocular/systemic factors were important in interpreting H24h-, PCT-, and WDT-IOP.

A new peak detection algorithm for MALDI mass spectrometry data based on a modified Asymmetric Pseudo-Voigt model.

PubMed

Wijetunge, Chalini D; Saeed, Isaam; Boughton, Berin A; Roessner, Ute; Halgamuge, Saman K

2015-01-01

Mass Spectrometry (MS) is a ubiquitous analytical tool in biological research and is used to measure the mass-to-charge ratio of bio-molecules. Peak detection is the essential first step in MS data analysis. Precise estimation of peak parameters such as peak summit location and peak area are critical to identify underlying bio-molecules and to estimate their abundances accurately. We propose a new method to detect and quantify peaks in mass spectra. It uses dual-tree complex wavelet transformation along with Stein's unbiased risk estimator for spectra smoothing. Then, a new method, based on the modified Asymmetric Pseudo-Voigt (mAPV) model and hierarchical particle swarm optimization, is used for peak parameter estimation. Using simulated data, we demonstrated the benefit of using the mAPV model over Gaussian, Lorentz and Bi-Gaussian functions for MS peak modelling. The proposed mAPV model achieved the best fitting accuracy for asymmetric peaks, with lower percentage errors in peak summit location estimation, which were 0.17% to 4.46% less than that of the other models. It also outperformed the other models in peak area estimation, delivering lower percentage errors, which were about 0.7% less than its closest competitor - the Bi-Gaussian model. In addition, using data generated from a MALDI-TOF computer model, we showed that the proposed overall algorithm outperformed the existing methods mainly in terms of sensitivity. It achieved a sensitivity of 85%, compared to 77% and 71% of the two benchmark algorithms, continuous wavelet transformation based method and Cromwell respectively. The proposed algorithm is particularly useful for peak detection and parameter estimation in MS data with overlapping peak distributions and asymmetric peaks. The algorithm is implemented using MATLAB and the source code is freely available at http://mapv.sourceforge.net.

A new peak detection algorithm for MALDI mass spectrometry data based on a modified Asymmetric Pseudo-Voigt model

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Mass Spectrometry (MS) is a ubiquitous analytical tool in biological research and is used to measure the mass-to-charge ratio of bio-molecules. Peak detection is the essential first step in MS data analysis. Precise estimation of peak parameters such as peak summit location and peak area are critical to identify underlying bio-molecules and to estimate their abundances accurately. We propose a new method to detect and quantify peaks in mass spectra. It uses dual-tree complex wavelet transformation along with Stein's unbiased risk estimator for spectra smoothing. Then, a new method, based on the modified Asymmetric Pseudo-Voigt (mAPV) model and hierarchical particle swarm optimization, is used for peak parameter estimation. Results Using simulated data, we demonstrated the benefit of using the mAPV model over Gaussian, Lorentz and Bi-Gaussian functions for MS peak modelling. The proposed mAPV model achieved the best fitting accuracy for asymmetric peaks, with lower percentage errors in peak summit location estimation, which were 0.17% to 4.46% less than that of the other models. It also outperformed the other models in peak area estimation, delivering lower percentage errors, which were about 0.7% less than its closest competitor - the Bi-Gaussian model. In addition, using data generated from a MALDI-TOF computer model, we showed that the proposed overall algorithm outperformed the existing methods mainly in terms of sensitivity. It achieved a sensitivity of 85%, compared to 77% and 71% of the two benchmark algorithms, continuous wavelet transformation based method and Cromwell respectively. Conclusions The proposed algorithm is particularly useful for peak detection and parameter estimation in MS data with overlapping peak distributions and asymmetric peaks. The algorithm is implemented using MATLAB and the source code is freely available at http://mapv.sourceforge.net. PMID:26680279

Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.

1997-01-01

Statewide regression equations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years for ungaged sites on natural unregulated streams. The most significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for natural unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and mean-annual precipitation. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation from manmade works. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are discussed. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climatic characteristics, and the peak-stream-flow frequency estimates for 251 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are listed. Techniques are presented to make a peak-streamflow frequency estimate for gaged sites on natural unregulated streams and to use this result to estimate a nearby ungaged site on the same stream. For ungaged sites on urban streams, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. For ungaged sites on streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. The statewide regression equations are adjusted by substituting the drainage area below the floodwater retarding structures, or drainage area that represents the percentage of the unregulated basin, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain peak-streamflow frequency estimates.

Improved shear wave group velocity estimation method based on spatiotemporal peak and thresholding motion search

PubMed Central

Amador, Carolina; Chen, Shigao; Manduca, Armando; Greenleaf, James F.; Urban, Matthew W.

2017-01-01

Quantitative ultrasound elastography is increasingly being used in the assessment of chronic liver disease. Many studies have reported ranges of liver shear wave velocities values for healthy individuals and patients with different stages of liver fibrosis. Nonetheless, ongoing efforts exist to stabilize quantitative ultrasound elastography measurements by assessing factors that influence tissue shear wave velocity values, such as food intake, body mass index (BMI), ultrasound scanners, scanning protocols, ultrasound image quality, etc. Time-to-peak (TTP) methods have been routinely used to measure the shear wave velocity. However, there is still a need for methods that can provide robust shear wave velocity estimation in the presence of noisy motion data. The conventional TTP algorithm is limited to searching for the maximum motion in time profiles at different spatial locations. In this study, two modified shear wave speed estimation algorithms are proposed. The first method searches for the maximum motion in both space and time (spatiotemporal peak, STP); the second method applies an amplitude filter (spatiotemporal thresholding, STTH) to select points with motion amplitude higher than a threshold for shear wave group velocity estimation. The two proposed methods (STP and STTH) showed higher precision in shear wave velocity estimates compared to TTP in phantom. Moreover, in a cohort of 14 healthy subjects STP and STTH methods improved both the shear wave velocity measurement precision and the success rate of the measurement compared to conventional TTP. PMID:28092532

Improved Shear Wave Group Velocity Estimation Method Based on Spatiotemporal Peak and Thresholding Motion Search.

PubMed

Amador Carrascal, Carolina; Chen, Shigao; Manduca, Armando; Greenleaf, James F; Urban, Matthew W

2017-04-01

Quantitative ultrasound elastography is increasingly being used in the assessment of chronic liver disease. Many studies have reported ranges of liver shear wave velocity values for healthy individuals and patients with different stages of liver fibrosis. Nonetheless, ongoing efforts exist to stabilize quantitative ultrasound elastography measurements by assessing factors that influence tissue shear wave velocity values, such as food intake, body mass index, ultrasound scanners, scanning protocols, and ultrasound image quality. Time-to-peak (TTP) methods have been routinely used to measure the shear wave velocity. However, there is still a need for methods that can provide robust shear wave velocity estimation in the presence of noisy motion data. The conventional TTP algorithm is limited to searching for the maximum motion in time profiles at different spatial locations. In this paper, two modified shear wave speed estimation algorithms are proposed. The first method searches for the maximum motion in both space and time [spatiotemporal peak (STP)]; the second method applies an amplitude filter [spatiotemporal thresholding (STTH)] to select points with motion amplitude higher than a threshold for shear wave group velocity estimation. The two proposed methods (STP and STTH) showed higher precision in shear wave velocity estimates compared with TTP in phantom. Moreover, in a cohort of 14 healthy subjects, STP and STTH methods improved both the shear wave velocity measurement precision and the success rate of the measurement compared with conventional TTP.

High-intensity Interval training enhances mobilization/functionality of endothelial progenitor cells and depressed shedding of vascular endothelial cells undergoing hypoxia.

PubMed

Tsai, Hsing-Hua; Lin, Chin-Pu; Lin, Yi-Hui; Hsu, Chih-Chin; Wang, Jong-Shyan

2016-12-01

Exercise training improves endothelium-dependent vasodilation, whereas hypoxic stress causes vascular endothelial dysfunction. Monocyte-derived endothelial progenitor cells (Mon-EPCs) contribute to vascular repair process by differentiating into endothelial cells. This study investigates how high-intensity interval (HIT) and moderate-intensity continuous (MCT) exercise training affect circulating Mon-EPC levels and EPC functionality under hypoxic condition. Sixty healthy sedentary males were randomized to engage in either HIT (3-min intervals at 40 and 80 % VO 2max for five repetitions, n = 20) or MCT (sustained 60 % VO 2max , n = 20) for 30 min/day, 5 days/week for 6 weeks, or to a control group (CTL) that did not received exercise intervention (n = 20). Mon-EPC characteristics and EPC functionality under hypoxic exercise (HE, 100 W under 12 % O 2 ) were determined before and after HIT, MCT, and CTL. The results demonstrated that after the intervention, the HIT group exhibited larger improvements in VO 2peak , estimated peak cardiac output (Q C ), and estimated peak perfusions of frontal cerebral lobe (Q FC ) and vastus lateralis (Q VL ) than the MCT group. Furthermore, HIT (a) increased circulating CD14 ++ /CD16 - /CD34 + /KDR + (Mon-1 EPC) and CD14 ++ /CD16 + /CD34 + /KDR + (Mon-2 EPC) cell counts, (b) promoted the migration and tube formation of EPCs, (c) diminished the shedding of endothelial (CD34 - /KDR + /phosphatidylserine + ) cells, and (d) elevated plasma nitrite plus nitrate, stromal cell-derived factor-1, matrix metalloproteinase-9, and vascular endothelial growth factor-A concentrations at rest or following HE, compared to those of MCT. In addition, Mon-1 and -2 EPC counts were directly related to VO 2peak and estimated peak Q C , Q FC , and Q VL . HIT is superior to MCT for improving hemodynamic adaptation and Mon-EPC production. Moreover, HIT effectively enhances EPC functionality and suppresses endothelial injury undergoing hypoxia.

Evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban watersheds in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.

2014-01-01

Flooding in urban areas routinely causes severe damage to property and often results in loss of life. To investigate the effect of urbanization on the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks, a flood frequency analysis was carried out using data from urbanized streamgaging stations in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. Flood peaks at each station were predicted using the log-Pearson Type III distribution, fitted using the expected moments algorithm and the multiple Grubbs-Beck low outlier test. The station estimates were then compared to flood peaks estimated by rural-regression equations for Arizona, and to flood peaks adjusted for urbanization using a previously developed procedure for adjusting U.S. Geological Survey rural regression peak discharges in an urban setting. Only smaller, more common flood peaks at the 50-, 20-, 10-, and 4-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) demonstrate any increase in magnitude as a result of urbanization; the 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood estimates are predicted without bias by the rural-regression equations. Percent imperviousness was determined not to account for the difference in estimated flood peaks between stations, either when adjusting the rural-regression equations or when deriving urban-regression equations to predict flood peaks directly from basin characteristics. Comparison with urban adjustment equations indicates that flood peaks are systematically overestimated if the rural-regression-estimated flood peaks are adjusted upward to account for urbanization. At nearly every streamgaging station in the analysis, adjusted rural-regression estimates were greater than the estimates derived using station data. One likely reason for the lack of increase in flood peaks with urbanization is the presence of significant stormwater retention and detention structures within the watershed used in the study.

DETECTORS AND EXPERIMENTAL METHODS: Heuristic approach for peak regions estimation in gamma-ray spectra measured by a NaI detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Meng-Hua; Liu, Liang-Gang; You, Zhong; Xu, Ao-Ao

2009-03-01

In this paper, a heuristic approach based on Slavic's peak searching method has been employed to estimate the width of peak regions for background removing. Synthetic and experimental data are used to test this method. With the estimated peak regions using the proposed method in the whole spectrum, we find it is simple and effective enough to be used together with the Statistics-sensitive Nonlinear Iterative Peak-Clipping method.

Estimating the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for selected recurrence intervals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Martin, Gary R.

2003-01-01

This report gives estimates of, and presents techniques for estimating, the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years. A flowchart in this report guides the user to the appropriate estimates and (or) estimating techniques for a site on a specific stream. Estimates of peak flows are given for 222 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kentucky. In the development of the peak-flow estimates at gaging stations, a new generalized skew coefficient was calculated for the State. This single statewide value of 0.011 (with a standard error of prediction of 0.520) is more appropriate for Kentucky than the national skew isoline map in Bulletin 17B of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Regression equations are presented for estimating the peak flows on ungaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. The equations were developed by use of generalized-least-squares regression procedures at 187 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Kentucky and 51 stations in surrounding States. Kentucky was divided into seven flood regions. Total drainage area is used in the final regression equations as the sole explanatory variable, except in Regions 1 and 4 where main-channel slope also was used. The smallest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 3 (from -13.1 to +15.0 percent) and the largest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 5 (from -37.6 to +60.3 percent). One section of this report describes techniques for estimating peak flows for ungaged sites on gaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. Another section references two previous U.S. Geological Survey reports for peak-flow estimates on ungaged, unregulated, urban streams. Estimating peak flows at ungaged sites on regulated streams is beyond the scope of this report, because peak flows on regulated streams are dependent upon variable human activities.

Techniques for Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Flows on Small Streams in Minnesota Based on Data through Water Year 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Kocian, Matthew J.

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the peak flow of floods of a given recurrence interval is essential for regulation and planning of water resources and for design of bridges, culverts, and dams along Minnesota's rivers and streams. Statistical techniques are needed to estimate peak flow at ungaged sites because long-term streamflow records are available at relatively few places. Because of the need to have up-to-date peak-flow frequency information in order to estimate peak flows at ungaged sites, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a peak-flow frequency study in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are presented for 330 streamflow-gaging stations in Minnesota and adjacent areas in Iowa and South Dakota based on data through water year 2005. The peak-flow frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses to develop equations relating peak flows for selected recurrence intervals to various basin and climatic characteristics. Two statistically derived techniques-regional regression equation and region of influence regression-can be used to estimate peak flow on ungaged streams smaller than 3,000 square miles in Minnesota. Regional regression equations were developed for selected recurrence intervals in each of six regions in Minnesota: A (northwestern), B (north central and east central), C (northeastern), D (west central and south central), E (southwestern), and F (southeastern). The regression equations can be used to estimate peak flows at ungaged sites. The region of influence regression technique dynamically selects streamflow-gaging stations with characteristics similar to a site of interest. Thus, the region of influence regression technique allows use of a potentially unique set of gaging stations for estimating peak flow at each site of interest. Two methods of selecting streamflow-gaging stations, similarity and proximity, can be used for the region of influence regression technique. The regional regression equation technique is the preferred technique as an estimate of peak flow in all six regions for ungaged sites. The region of influence regression technique is not appropriate for regions C, E, and F because the interrelations of some characteristics of those regions do not agree with the interrelations throughout the rest of the State. Both the similarity and proximity methods for the region of influence technique can be used in the other regions (A, B, and D) to provide additional estimates of peak flow. The peak-flow-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for selected streamflow-gaging stations and regional peak-flow regression equations are included in this report.

Focused ultrasound transducer spatial peak intensity estimation: a comparison of methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civale, John; Rivens, Ian; Shaw, Adam; ter Haar, Gail

2018-03-01

Characterisation of the spatial peak intensity at the focus of high intensity focused ultrasound transducers is difficult because of the risk of damage to hydrophone sensors at the high focal pressures generated. Hill et al (1994 Ultrasound Med. Biol. 20 259-69) provided a simple equation for estimating spatial-peak intensity for solid spherical bowl transducers using measured acoustic power and focal beamwidth. This paper demonstrates theoretically and experimentally that this expression is only strictly valid for spherical bowl transducers without a central (imaging) aperture. A hole in the centre of the transducer results in over-estimation of the peak intensity. Improved strategies for determining focal peak intensity from a measurement of total acoustic power are proposed. Four methods are compared: (i) a solid spherical bowl approximation (after Hill et al 1994 Ultrasound Med. Biol. 20 259-69), (ii) a numerical method derived from theory, (iii) a method using measured sidelobe to focal peak pressure ratio, and (iv) a method for measuring the focal power fraction (FPF) experimentally. Spatial-peak intensities were estimated for 8 transducers at three drive powers levels: low (approximately 1 W), moderate (~10 W) and high (20-70 W). The calculated intensities were compared with those derived from focal peak pressure measurements made using a calibrated hydrophone. The FPF measurement method was found to provide focal peak intensity estimates that agreed most closely (within 15%) with the hydrophone measurements, followed by the pressure ratio method (within 20%). The numerical method was found to consistently over-estimate focal peak intensity (+40% on average), however, for transducers with a central hole it was more accurate than using the solid bowl assumption (+70% over-estimation). In conclusion, the ability to make use of an automated beam plotting system, and a hydrophone with good spatial resolution, greatly facilitates characterisation of the FPF, and consequently gives improved confidence in estimating spatial peak intensity from measurement of acoustic power.

A wavelet-based Gaussian method for energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrum.

PubMed

Liu, Pan; Deng, Xiaoyan; Tang, Xin; Shen, Shijian

2017-05-01

This paper presents a wavelet-based Gaussian method (WGM) for the peak intensity estimation of energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF). The relationship between the parameters of Gaussian curve and the wavelet coefficients of Gaussian peak point is firstly established based on the Mexican hat wavelet. It is found that the Gaussian parameters can be accurately calculated by any two wavelet coefficients at the peak point which has to be known. This fact leads to a local Gaussian estimation method for spectral peaks, which estimates the Gaussian parameters based on the detail wavelet coefficients of Gaussian peak point. The proposed method is tested via simulated and measured spectra from an energy X-ray spectrometer, and compared with some existing methods. The results prove that the proposed method can directly estimate the peak intensity of EDXRF free from the background information, and also effectively distinguish overlap peaks in EDXRF spectrum.

Comparison of estimated and observed stormwater runoff for fifteen watersheds in west-central Florida, using five common design techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trommer, J.T.; Loper, J.E.; Hammett, K.M.; Bowman, Georgia

1996-01-01

Hydrologists use several traditional techniques for estimating peak discharges and runoff volumes from ungaged watersheds. However, applying these techniques to watersheds in west-central Florida requires that empirical relationships be extrapolated beyond tested ranges. As a result there is some uncertainty as to their accuracy. Sixty-six storms in 15 west-central Florida watersheds were modeled using (1) the rational method, (2) the U.S. Geological Survey regional regression equations, (3) the Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly the Soil Conservation Service) TR-20 model, (4) the Army Corps of Engineers HEC-1 model, and (5) the Environmental Protection Agency SWMM model. The watersheds ranged between fully developed urban and undeveloped natural watersheds. Peak discharges and runoff volumes were estimated using standard or recommended methods for determining input parameters. All model runs were uncalibrated and the selection of input parameters was not influenced by observed data. The rational method, only used to calculate peak discharges, overestimated 45 storms, underestimated 20 storms and estimated the same discharge for 1 storm. The mean estimation error for all storms indicates the method overestimates the peak discharges. Estimation errors were generally smaller in the urban watersheds and larger in the natural watersheds. The U.S. Geological Survey regression equations provide peak discharges for storms of specific recurrence intervals. Therefore, direct comparison with observed data was limited to sixteen observed storms that had precipitation equivalent to specific recurrence intervals. The mean estimation error for all storms indicates the method overestimates both peak discharges and runoff volumes. Estimation errors were smallest for the larger natural watersheds in Sarasota County, and largest for the small watersheds located in the eastern part of the study area. The Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, overestimated peak discharges for 45 storms and underestimated 21 storms, and overestimated runoff volumes for 44 storms and underestimated 22 storms. The mean estimation error for all storms modeled indicates that the model overestimates peak discharges and runoff volumes. The smaller estimation errors in both peak discharges and runoff volumes were for storms occurring in the urban watersheds, and the larger errors were for storms occurring in the natural watersheds. The HEC-1 model overestimated peak discharge rates for 55 storms and underestimated 11 storms. Runoff volumes were overestimated for 44 storms and underestimated for 22 storms using the Army Corps of Engineers HEC-1 model. The mean estimation error for all the storms modeled indicates that the model overestimates peak discharge rates and runoff volumes. Generally, the smaller estimation errors in peak discharges were for storms occurring in the urban watersheds, and the larger errors were for storms occurring in the natural watersheds. Estimation errors in runoff volumes; however, were smallest for the 3 natural watersheds located in the southernmost part of Sarasota County. The Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management model produced similar peak discharges and runoff volumes when using both the Green-Ampt and Horton infiltration methods. Estimated peak discharge and runoff volume data calculated with the Horton method was only slightly higher than those calculated with the Green-Ampt method. The mean estimation error for all the storms modeled indicates the model using the Green-Ampt infiltration method overestimates peak discharges and slightly underestimates runoff volumes. Using the Horton infiltration method, the model overestimates both peak discharges and runoff volumes. The smaller estimation errors in both peak discharges and runoff volumes were for storms occurring in the five natural watersheds in Sarasota County with the least amount of impervious cover and the lowest slopes. The largest er

Peak-flow frequency for tributaries of the Colorado River downstream of Austin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.

1998-01-01

Peak-flow frequency for 38 stations with at least 8 years of data in natural (unregulated and nonurbanized) basins was estimated on the basis of annual peak-streamflow data through water year 1995. Peak-flow frequency represents the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The peak-flow frequency and drainage basin characteristics for the stations were used to develop two sets of regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for tributaries of the Colorado River in the study area. One set of equations was developed for contributing drainage areas less than 32 square miles, and another set was developed for contributing drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. A procedure is presented to estimate the peak discharge at sites where both sets of equations are considered applicable. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent prediction interval for any estimation from the equations.

Re-Evaluation of the 1921 Peak Discharge at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.

2007-01-01

The peak discharge record at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington, is a key record that has come under intense scrutiny by the scientific and lay person communities in the last 4 years. A peak discharge of 240,000 cubic feet per second for the flood on December 13, 1921, was determined in 1923 by USGS hydrologist James Stewart by means of a slope-area measurement. USGS then determined the peak discharges of three other large floods on the Skagit River (1897, 1909, and 1917) by extending the stage-discharge rating through the 1921 flood measurement. The 1921 estimate of peak discharge was recalculated by Flynn and Benson of the USGS after a channel roughness verification was completed based on the 1949 flood on the Skagit River. The 1949 recalculation indicated that the peak discharge probably was 6.2 percent lower than Stewart's original estimate but the USGS did not officially change the peak discharge from Stewart's estimate because it was not more than a 10-percent change (which is the USGS guideline for revising peak flows) and the estimate already had error bands of 15 percent. All these flood peaks are now being used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the 100-year flood discharge for the Skagit River Flood Study so any method to confirm or improve the 1921 peak discharge estimate is warranted. During the last 4 years, two floods have occurred on the Skagit River (2003, 2006) that has enabled the USGS to collect additional data, do further analysis, and yet again re-evaluate the 1921 peak discharge estimate. Since 1949, an island/bar in the study reach has reforested itself. This has complicated the flow hydraulics and made the most recent recalculation of the 1921 flood based on channel roughness verification that used 2003 and 2006 flood data less reliable. However, this recent recalculation did indicate that the original peak-discharge calculation by Stewart may be high, and it added to a body of evidence that indicates a revision in the 1921 peak discharge estimate is appropriate. The USGS has determined that a lower peak-discharge estimate (5.0 percent lower) similar to the 1949 estimates is most appropriate based on (1) a recalculation of the 1921 flood using a channel roughness verification from the 1949 flood data, (2) a recalculation of the 1921 flood using a channel roughness verification from 2003 and 2006 flood data, and (3) straight-line extension of the stage-discharge relation at the gage based on current-meter discharge measurements. Given the significance of the 1921 flood peak, revising the estimate is appropriate even though it is less than the 10-percent guideline established by the USGS for revision. Revising the peak is warranted because all work subsequent to 1921 point to the 1921 peak being lower than originally published.

The Cumulative Lifting Index (CULI) for the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation: Quantifying Risk for Workers With Job Rotation.

PubMed

Garg, Arun; Kapellusch, Jay M

2016-08-01

The objectives were to: (a) develop a continuous frequency multiplier (FM) for the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation (RNLE) as a function of lifting frequency and duration of a lifting task, and (b) describe the Cumulative Lifting Index (CULI), a methodology for estimating physical exposure to workers with job rotation. The existing FM for the RNLE (FME) does not differentiate between task duration >2 hr and <8 hr, which makes quantifying physical exposure to workers with job rotation difficult and presents challenges to job designers. Using the existing FMs for 1, 2, and 8 hr of task durations, we developed a continuous FM (FMP) that extends to 12 hr per day. We simulated 157,500 jobs consisting of two tasks each and, using different combinations of Frequency Independent Lifting Index, lifting frequency and duration of lifting. Biomechanical stresses were estimated using the CULI, time-weighted average (TWA), and peak exposure. The median difference between FME and FMP was ±1% (range: 0%-15%). Compared to CULI, TWA underestimated risk of low-back pain (LBP) for 18% to 30% of jobs, and peak exposure for an assumed 8-hr work shift overestimated risk of LBP for 20% to 25% of jobs. Peak task exposure showed 90% agreement with CULI but ignored one of two tasks. The CULI partially addressed the underestimation of physical exposure using the TWA approach and overestimation of exposure using the peak-exposure approach. The proposed FM and CULI may provide more accurate physical exposure estimates, and therefore estimated risk of LBP, for workers with job rotation. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Site-specific estimation of peak-streamflow frequency using generalized least-squares regression for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.

1999-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, has developed a computer program to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural basins in Texas. Peak-streamflow frequency refers to the peak streamflows for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed by planners, managers, and design engineers for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of roads and bridges; and also for the desin of culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. The program estimates peak-streamflow frequency using a site-specific approach and a multivariate generalized least-squares linear regression. A site-specific approach differs from a traditional regional regression approach by developing unique equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency specifically for the ungaged site. The stations included in the regression are selected using an informal cluster analysis that compares the basin characteristics of the ungaged site to the basin characteristics of all the stations in the data base. The program provides several choices for selecting the stations. Selecting the stations using cluster analysis ensures that the stations included in the regression will have the most pertinent information about flooding characteristics of the ungaged site and therefore provide the basis for potentially improved peak-streamflow frequency estimation. An evaluation of the site-specific approach in estimating peak-streamflow frequency for gaged sites indicates that the site-specific approach is at least as accurate as a traditional regional regression approach.

Mapping apparent stress and energy radiation over fault zones of major earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

2002-01-01

Using published slip models for five major earthquakes, 1979 Imperial Valley, 1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, and 1995 Kobe, we produce maps of apparent stress and radiated seismic energy over their fault surfaces. The slip models, obtained by inverting seismic and geodetic data, entail the division of the fault surfaces into many subfaults for which the time histories of seismic slip are determined. To estimate the seismic energy radiated by each subfault, we measure the near-fault seismic-energy flux from the time-dependent slip there and then multiply by a function of rupture velocity to obtain the corresponding energy that propagates into the far-field. This function, the ratio of far-field to near-fault energy, is typically less than 1/3, inasmuch as most of the near-fault energy remains near the fault and is associated with permanent earthquake deformation. Adding the energy contributions from all of the subfaults yields an estimate of the total seismic energy, which can be compared with independent energy estimates based on seismic-energy flux measured in the far-field, often at teleseismic distances. Estimates of seismic energy based on slip models are robust, in that different models, for a given earthquake, yield energy estimates that are in close agreement. Moreover, the slip-model estimates of energy are generally in good accord with independent estimates by others, based on regional or teleseismic data. Apparent stress is estimated for each subfault by dividing the corresponding seismic moment into the radiated energy. Distributions of apparent stress over an earthquake fault zone show considerable heterogeneity, with peak values that are typically about double the whole-earthquake values (based on the ratio of seismic energy to seismic moment). The range of apparent stresses estimated for subfaults of the events studied here is similar to the range of apparent stresses for earthquakes in continental settings, with peak values of about 8 MPa in each case. For earthquakes in compressional tectonic settings, peak apparent stresses at a given depth are substantially greater than corresponding peak values from events in extensional settings; this suggests that crustal strength, inferred from laboratory measurements, may be a limiting factor. Lower bounds on shear stresses inferred from the apparent stress distribution of the 1995 Kobe earthquake are consistent with tectonic-stress estimates reported by Spudich et al. (1998), based partly on slip-vector rake changes.

Estimated contributions of primary and secondary organic aerosol from fossil fuel combustion during the CalNex and Cal-Mex campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman-Morales, J.; Frossard, A. A.; Corrigan, A. L.; Russell, L. M.; Liu, S.; Takahama, S.; Taylor, J. W.; Allan, J.; Coe, H.; Zhao, Y.; Goldstein, A. H.

2014-05-01

Observations during CalNex and Cal-Mex field campaigns at Bakersfield, Pasadena, Tijuana, and on board the R/V Atlantis show a substantial contribution of fossil fuel emissions to the ambient particle organic mass (OM). At least two fossil fuel combustion (FFC) factors with a range of contributions of oxidized organic functional groups were identified at each site and accounted for 60-88% of the total OM. Additional marine, vegetative detritus, and biomass burning or biogenic sources contribute up to 40% of the OM. Comparison of the FTIR spectra of four different unburned fossil fuels (gasoline, diesel, motor oil, and ship diesel) with PMF factors from ambient samples shows absorbance peaks from the fuels are retained in organic aerosols, with the spectra of all of the FFC factors containing at least three of the four characteristic alkane peaks observed in fuel standards at 2954, 2923, 2869 and 2855 cm-1. Based on this spectral similarity, we estimate the primary OM from FFC sources for each site to be 16-20%, with secondary FFC OM accounting for an additional 42-62%. Two other methods for estimating primary OM that use carbon monoxide (CO) and elemental carbon (EC) as tracers of primary organic mass were investigated, but both approaches were problematic for the CalNex and Cal-Mex urban sites because they were influenced by multiple emission sources that had site-specific and variable initial ratios to OM. For example, using the ΔPOM/ΔCO ratio of 0.0094 μg ppb V-1 proposed by other studies produces unrealistically high estimates of primary FFC OM of 55-100%.

Flood of July 27-31, 2006, on the Grand River near Painesville, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebner, Andrew D.; Sherwood, James M.; Astifan, Brian; Lombardy, Kirk

2007-01-01

Two separate weather systems produced storms resulting in more than 11 inches of rain in parts of Lake County, Ohio, on July 27-28, 2006. As a result of the storms and ensuing flooding caused by the weather systems, the counties of Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula were declared Federal and State disaster areas, with damages estimated at $30 million and one fatality in Lake County. About 600 people were evacuated in Lake County. The U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station at Grand River near Painesville, Ohio (station 04212100), had a record peak stage of 19.35 feet (elevation, 614.94 feet), with a record peak streamflow of 35,000 cubic feet per second, and an estimated recurrence interval of approximately 500 years. This report describes the meteorological factors that resulted in severe flooding on the Grand River near Painesville from July 27 to July 31, 2006, and addresses the damages caused by the storms and flooding. Peak-stage, peak-streamflow, and recurrence-interval data are reported for the Grand River near Painesville. A plot of high-water marks is also presented for the Grand River in a reach that includes the City of Painesville, Painesville Township, the Village of Fairport Harbor, and the Village of Grand River.

Diagnosing and Correcting Mass Accuracy and Signal Intensity Error Due to Initial Ion Position Variations in a MALDI TOFMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malys, Brian J.; Piotrowski, Michelle L.; Owens, Kevin G.

2018-02-01

Frustrated by worse than expected error for both peak area and time-of-flight (TOF) in matrix assisted laser desorption ionization (MALDI) experiments using samples prepared by electrospray deposition, it was finally determined that there was a correlation between sample location on the target plate and the measured TOF/peak area. Variations in both TOF and peak area were found to be due to small differences in the initial position of ions formed in the source region of the TOF mass spectrometer. These differences arise largely from misalignment of the instrument sample stage, with a smaller contribution arising from the non-ideal shape of the target plates used. By physically measuring the target plates used and comparing TOF data collected from three different instruments, an estimate of the magnitude and direction of the sample stage misalignment was determined for each of the instruments. A correction method was developed to correct the TOFs and peak areas obtained for a given combination of target plate and instrument. Two correction factors are determined, one by initially collecting spectra from each sample position used and another by using spectra from a single position for each set of samples on a target plate. For TOF and mass values, use of the correction factor reduced the error by a factor of 4, with the relative standard deviation (RSD) of the corrected masses being reduced to 12-24 ppm. For the peak areas, the RSD was reduced from 28% to 16% for samples deposited twice onto two target plates over two days.

Diagnosing and Correcting Mass Accuracy and Signal Intensity Error Due to Initial Ion Position Variations in a MALDI TOFMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malys, Brian J.; Piotrowski, Michelle L.; Owens, Kevin G.

2017-12-01

Frustrated by worse than expected error for both peak area and time-of-flight (TOF) in matrix assisted laser desorption ionization (MALDI) experiments using samples prepared by electrospray deposition, it was finally determined that there was a correlation between sample location on the target plate and the measured TOF/peak area. Variations in both TOF and peak area were found to be due to small differences in the initial position of ions formed in the source region of the TOF mass spectrometer. These differences arise largely from misalignment of the instrument sample stage, with a smaller contribution arising from the non-ideal shape of the target plates used. By physically measuring the target plates used and comparing TOF data collected from three different instruments, an estimate of the magnitude and direction of the sample stage misalignment was determined for each of the instruments. A correction method was developed to correct the TOFs and peak areas obtained for a given combination of target plate and instrument. Two correction factors are determined, one by initially collecting spectra from each sample position used and another by using spectra from a single position for each set of samples on a target plate. For TOF and mass values, use of the correction factor reduced the error by a factor of 4, with the relative standard deviation (RSD) of the corrected masses being reduced to 12-24 ppm. For the peak areas, the RSD was reduced from 28% to 16% for samples deposited twice onto two target plates over two days. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Myxomatosis in farmland rabbit populations in England and Wales.

PubMed

Ross, J; Tittensor, A M; Fox, A P; Sanders, M F

1989-10-01

The overall pattern and consequences of myxomatosis in wild rabbit populations were studied at three farmland sites in lowland southern England and upland central Wales between 1971 and 1978. When results from all years were combined, the disease showed a clear two-peaked annual cycle, with a main autumn peak between August and January, and a subsidiary spring peak during February to April. Rabbit fleas, the main vectors of myxomatosis in Britain, were present on full-grown rabbits in sufficient numbers for transmission to occur throughout the year, but the observed seasonal pattern of the disease appeared to be influenced by seasonal mass movements of these fleas. However other factors were also important including the timing and success of the main rabbit breeding season, the proportion of rabbits which had recovered from the disease and the timing and extent of autumn rabbit mortality from other causes. Significantly more males than females, and more adults and immatures than juveniles, were observed to be infected by myxomatosis. Only 25-27% of the total populations were seen to be infected during outbreaks. Using two independent methods of calculation, it was estimated that between 47 and 69% of infected rabbits died from the disease (much lower than the expected 90-95% for fully susceptible rabbits with the partly attenuated virus strains that predominated). Thus it was estimated that 12-19% of the total rabbit populations were known to have died directly or indirectly from myxomatosis. Although the effects of myxomatosis were much less than during the 1950s and 1960s, it continued to be an important mortality factor. It may still have a regulatory effect on rabbit numbers, with autumn/winter peaks of disease reducing the numbers of rabbits present at the start of the breeding season.

Myxomatosis in farmland rabbit populations in England and Wales.

PubMed Central

Ross, J.; Tittensor, A. M.; Fox, A. P.; Sanders, M. F.

1989-01-01

The overall pattern and consequences of myxomatosis in wild rabbit populations were studied at three farmland sites in lowland southern England and upland central Wales between 1971 and 1978. When results from all years were combined, the disease showed a clear two-peaked annual cycle, with a main autumn peak between August and January, and a subsidiary spring peak during February to April. Rabbit fleas, the main vectors of myxomatosis in Britain, were present on full-grown rabbits in sufficient numbers for transmission to occur throughout the year, but the observed seasonal pattern of the disease appeared to be influenced by seasonal mass movements of these fleas. However other factors were also important including the timing and success of the main rabbit breeding season, the proportion of rabbits which had recovered from the disease and the timing and extent of autumn rabbit mortality from other causes. Significantly more males than females, and more adults and immatures than juveniles, were observed to be infected by myxomatosis. Only 25-27% of the total populations were seen to be infected during outbreaks. Using two independent methods of calculation, it was estimated that between 47 and 69% of infected rabbits died from the disease (much lower than the expected 90-95% for fully susceptible rabbits with the partly attenuated virus strains that predominated). Thus it was estimated that 12-19% of the total rabbit populations were known to have died directly or indirectly from myxomatosis. Although the effects of myxomatosis were much less than during the 1950s and 1960s, it continued to be an important mortality factor. It may still have a regulatory effect on rabbit numbers, with autumn/winter peaks of disease reducing the numbers of rabbits present at the start of the breeding season. PMID:2806418

Normative reference values for the 20 m shuttle‐run test in a population‐based sample of school‐aged youth in Bogota, Colombia: the FUPRECOL study

PubMed Central

Palacios‐López, Adalberto; Humberto Prieto‐Benavides, Daniel; Enrique Correa‐Bautista, Jorge; Izquierdo, Mikel; Alonso‐Martínez, Alicia; Lobelo, Felipe

2016-01-01

Abstract Objectives Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio‐metabolic risk. Methods A total of 7244 children and adolescents attending public schools in Bogota, Colombia (55.7% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years) participated in this study. We expressed CRF performance as the nearest stage (minute) completed and the estimated peak oxygen consumption (V˙O2peak). Smoothed percentile curves were calculated. In addition, we present the prevalence of low CRF after applying a correction factor to account for the impact of Bogota's altitude (2625 m over sea level) on CRF assessment, and we calculated the number of participants who fell below health‐related FITNESSGRAM cut‐points for low CRF. Results Shuttles and V˙O2peak were higher in boys than in girls in all age groups. In boys, there were higher levels of performance with increasing age, with most gains between the ages of 13 and 17. The proportion of subjects with a low CRF, suggestive of future cardio‐metabolic risk (health risk FITNESSGRAM category) was 31.5% (28.2% for boys and 34.1% for girls; X2 P = .001). After applying a 1.11 altitude correction factor, the overall prevalence of low CRF was 11.5% (9.6% for boys and 13.1% for girls; X2 P = .001). Conclusions Our results provide sex‐ and age‐specific normative reference standards for the 20 m shuttle‐run test and estimated V˙O2peak values in a large, population‐based sample of schoolchildren from a large Latin‐American city at high altitude. PMID:27500986

Two-station comparison of peak flows to improve flood-frequency estimates for seven streamflow-gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, Central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles

2003-01-01

Improved flood-frequency estimates for short-term (10 or fewer years of record) streamflow-gaging stations were needed to support instream flow studies by the U.S. Forest Service, which are focused on quantifying water rights necessary to maintain or restore productive fish habitat. Because peak-flow data for short-term gaging stations can be biased by having been collected during an unusually wet, dry, or otherwise unrepresentative period of record, the data may not represent the full range of potential floods at a site. To test whether peak-flow estimates for short-term gaging stations could be improved, the two-station comparison method was used to adjust the logarithmic mean and logarithmic standard deviation of peak flows for seven short-term gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, central Idaho. Correlation coefficients determined from regression of peak flows for paired short-term and long-term (more than 10 years of record) gaging stations over a concurrent period of record indicated that the mean and standard deviation of peak flows for all short-term gaging stations would be improved. Flood-frequency estimates for seven short-term gaging stations were determined using the adjusted mean and standard deviation. The original (unadjusted) flood-frequency estimates for three of the seven short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by less than 10 percent, probably because the data were collected during periods representing the full range of peak flows. Unadjusted flood-frequency estimates for four short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by more than 10 percent; unadjusted estimates for Little Slate Creek and Salmon River near Obsidian differed from adjusted estimates by nearly 30 percent. These large differences probably are attributable to unrepresentative periods of peak-flow data collection.

Defining the market for gas cooling--

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brodrick, J.R.; Patel, R.

1990-01-01

This paper looks at the market prospects for emerging gas cooling technologies. Many factors are found influence market decisions, and a number of factors have been set aside for reasons of conservatism and expediency. By considering some of these motivators, a fuller understanding of the market is made. Relative to this information, the potential success of gas cooling systems are estimated. Three gas cooling systems are evaluated as possible approaches for base-loaded and peak-loaded commercial buildings. Other system concepts may be appropriate.

Average Emissivity Curve of BATSE Gamma-Ray Bursts with Different Intensities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrofanov, Igor G.; Anfimov, Dimitrij S.; Litvak, Maxim L.; Briggs, Michael S.; Paciesas, W. S.; Pendleton, Geoffrey N.; Preece, Robert D.

1998-01-01

Six intensity groups with $/sim 150$ BATSE gamma-ray bursts each are compared using average emissivity curves. Time-stretch factors for each of the dimmer groups are estimated with respect to the brightest group. Which serves as the reference taking into account the systematics of counts-produced noise effects and choice statistics. The effect of stretching/intensity anti-correlation is found at the average back slopes of bursts with good statistical significance. A stretch factor $/sim 2$ is found between the 150 dimmest bursts with peak flux $less than 0.45$ ph cm$(exp -2)$ s$(exp -1)$, and the 147 brightest bursts with peak flux $greater than 4.1$ ph cm$(exp -2}$ s$(exp -1)$. On the other hand, only a marginally significant stretching effect $V(sub ec) 1.4$ is seen at the average rise fronts.

40 CFR Appendix E to Part 75 - Optional NOX Emissions Estimation Protocol for Gas-Fired Peaking Units and Oil-Fired Peaking Units

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Optional NOX Emissions Estimation Protocol for Gas-Fired Peaking Units and Oil-Fired Peaking Units E Appendix E to Part 75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTINUOUS EMISSION...

40 CFR Appendix E to Part 75 - Optional NOX Emissions Estimation Protocol for Gas-Fired Peaking Units and Oil-Fired Peaking Units

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Optional NOX Emissions Estimation Protocol for Gas-Fired Peaking Units and Oil-Fired Peaking Units E Appendix E to Part 75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTINUOUS EMISSION...

A vision-based method for planar position measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zong-Hao; Huang, Peisen S.

2016-12-01

In this paper, a vision-based method is proposed for three-degree-of-freedom (3-DOF) planar position (XY{θZ} ) measurement. This method uses a single camera to capture the image of a 2D periodic pattern and then uses the 2D discrete Fourier transform (2D DFT) method to estimate the phase of its fundamental frequency component for position measurement. To improve position measurement accuracy, the phase estimation error of 2D DFT is analyzed and a phase estimation method is proposed. Different simulations are done to verify the feasibility of this method and study the factors that influence the accuracy and precision of phase estimation. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed method for position measurement, a prototype encoder consisting of a black-and-white industrial camera with VGA resolution (480  ×  640 pixels) and an iPhone 4s has been developed. Experimental results show the peak-to-peak resolutions to be 3.5 nm in X axis, 8 nm in Y axis and 4 μ \\text{rad} in {θZ} axis. The corresponding RMS resolutions are 0.52 nm, 1.06 nm, and 0.60 μ \\text{rad} respectively.

Peak data for U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, Texas network and computer program to estimate peak-streamflow frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, R.M.; Asquith, W.H.

1996-01-01

About 23,000 annual peak streamflows and about 400 historical peak streamflows exist for about 950 stations in the surface-water data-collection network of Texas. These data are presented on a computer diskette along with the corresponding dates, gage heights, and information concerning the basin, and nature or cause for the flood. Also on the computer diskette is a U.S. Geological Survey computer program that estimates peak-streamflow frequency based on annual and historical peak streamflow. The program estimates peak streamflow for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals and is based on guidelines established by the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Explanations are presented for installing the program, and an example is presented with discussion of its options.

Integration of biogenic emissions in environmental fate, transport, and exposure systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstathiou, Christos I.

Biogenic emissions make a significant contribution to the levels of aeroallergens and secondary air pollutants such as ozone. Understanding major factors contributing to allergic airway diseases requires accurate characterization of emissions and transport/transformation of biogenic emissions. However, biogenic emission estimates are laden with large uncertainties. Furthermore, the current biogenic emission estimation models use low-resolution data for estimating land use, vegetation biomass and VOC emissions. Furthermore, there are currently no established methods for estimating bioaerosol emissions over continental or regional scale, which can impact the ambient levels of pollent that have synergestic effects with other gaseous pollutants. In the first part of the thesis, an detailed review of different approaches and available databases for estimating biogenic emissions was conducted, and multiple geodatabases and satellite imagery were used in a consistent manner to improve the estimates of biogenic emissions over the continental United States. These emissions represent more realistic, higher resolution estimates of biogenic emissions (including those of highly reactive species such as isoprene). The impact of these emissions on tropospheric ozone levels was studied at a regional scale through the application of the USEPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Minor, but significant differences in the levels of ambient ozone were observed. In the second part of the thesis, an algorithm for estimating emissions of pollen particles from major allergenic tree and plant families in the United States was developed, extending the approach for modeling biogenic gas emissions in the Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS). A spatio-temporal vegetation map was constructed from different remote sensing sources and local surveys, and was coupled with a meteorological model to develop pollen emissions rates. This model overcomes limitations posed by the lack of temporally resolved dynamic vegetation mapping in traditional pollen emission estimation methods. The pollen emissions model was applied to study the pollen emissions for North East US at 12 km resolution for comparison with ground level tree pollen data. A pollen transport model that simulates complex dispersion and deposition was developed through modifications to the USEPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The peak pollen emission predictions were within a day of peak pollen counts measured, thus corroborating independent model verification. Furthermore, the peak predicted pollen concentration estimates were within two days of the peak measured pollen counts, thus providing independent corroboration. The models for emissions and dispersion allow data-independent estimation of pollen levels, and provide an important component in assessing exposures of populations to pollen, especially under different climate change scenarios.

Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background While many pandemic preparedness plans have promoted disease control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak, analytical methods for determining the required control effort and making statistical inferences have yet to be sought. As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model. Methods We focus on estimating the impact of an early control effort (e.g. unsuccessful containment), assuming that the transmission rate abruptly increases when control is discontinued. We provide analytical expressions for magnitude and time of the epidemic peak, employing approximate logistic and logarithmic-form solutions for the latter. Empirical influenza data (H1N1-2009) in Japan are analyzed to estimate the effect of the summer holiday period in lowering and delaying the peak in 2009. Results Our model estimates that the epidemic peak of the 2009 pandemic was delayed for 21 days due to summer holiday. Decline in peak appears to be a nonlinear function of control-associated reduction in the reproduction number. Peak delay is shown to critically depend on the fraction of initially immune individuals. Conclusions The proposed modeling approaches offer methodological avenues to assess empirical data and to objectively estimate required control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak. Analytical findings support a critical need to conduct population-wide serological survey as a prior requirement for estimating the time of peak. PMID:21269441

Effect of Response Reduction Factor on Peak Floor Acceleration Demand in Mid-Rise RC Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surana, Mitesh; Singh, Yogendra; Lang, Dominik H.

2017-06-01

Estimation of Peak Floor Acceleration (PFA) demand along the height of a building is crucial for the seismic safety of nonstructural components. The effect of the level of inelasticity, controlled by the response reduction factor (strength ratio), is studied using incremental dynamic analysis. A total of 1120 nonlinear dynamic analyses, using a suite of 30 recorded ground motion time histories, are performed on mid-rise reinforced-concrete (RC) moment-resisting frame buildings covering a wide range in terms of their periods of vibration. The obtained PFA demands are compared with some of the major national seismic design and retrofit codes (IS 1893 draft version, ASCE 41, EN 1998, and NZS 1170.4). It is observed that the PFA demand at the building's roof level decreases with increasing period of vibration as well as with strength ratio. However, current seismic building codes do not account for these effects thereby producing very conservative estimates of PFA demands. Based on the identified parameters affecting the PFA demand, a model to obtain the PFA distribution along the height of a building is proposed. The proposed model is validated with spectrum-compatible time history analyses of the considered buildings with different strength ratios.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodge, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.

1995-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams in Arkansas. Regression analyses were developed in which a stream's physical and flood characteristics were related. Four sets of regional regression equations were derived to predict peak discharges with selected recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years on streams draining less than 7,770 square kilometers. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods. The region of influence method is included in this report. This method is still being improved and is to be considered only as a second alternative to the standard method of producing regional regression equations. This method estimates unique regression equations for each recurrence interval for each ungaged site. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin and climatic characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods for this method. Certain recommendations on the use of this method are provided. A method is described for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams for urban areas in Arkansas. The method is from a nationwide U.S. Geeological Survey flood frequency report which uses urban basin characteristics combined with rural discharges to estimate urban discharges. Annual peak discharges from 204 gaging stations, with drainage areas less than 7,770 square kilometers and at least 10 years of unregulated record, were used in the analysis. These data provide the basis for this analysis and are published in the Appendix of this report as supplemental data. Large rivers such as the Red, Arkansas, White, Black, St. Francis, Mississippi, and Ouachita Rivers have floodflow characteristics that differ from those of smaller tributary streams and were treated individually. Regional regression equations are not applicable to these large rivers. The magnitude and frequency of floods along these rivers are based on specific station data. This section is provided in the Appendix and has not been updated since the last Arkansas flood frequency report (1987b), but is included at the request of the cooperator.

Estimations of One Repetition Maximum and Isometric Peak Torque in Knee Extension Based on the Relationship Between Force and Velocity.

PubMed

Sugiura, Yoshito; Hatanaka, Yasuhiko; Arai, Tomoaki; Sakurai, Hiroaki; Kanada, Yoshikiyo

2016-04-01

We aimed to investigate whether a linear regression formula based on the relationship between joint torque and angular velocity measured using a high-speed video camera and image measurement software is effective for estimating 1 repetition maximum (1RM) and isometric peak torque in knee extension. Subjects comprised 20 healthy men (mean ± SD; age, 27.4 ± 4.9 years; height, 170.3 ± 4.4 cm; and body weight, 66.1 ± 10.9 kg). The exercise load ranged from 40% to 150% 1RM. Peak angular velocity (PAV) and peak torque were used to estimate 1RM and isometric peak torque. To elucidate the relationship between force and velocity in knee extension, the relationship between the relative proportion of 1RM (% 1RM) and PAV was examined using simple regression analysis. The concordance rate between the estimated value and actual measurement of 1RM and isometric peak torque was examined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Reliability of the regression line of PAV and % 1RM was 0.95. The concordance rate between the actual measurement and estimated value of 1RM resulted in an ICC(2,1) of 0.93 and that of isometric peak torque had an ICC(2,1) of 0.87 and 0.86 for 6 and 3 levels of load, respectively. Our method for estimating 1RM was effective for decreasing the measurement time and reducing patients' burden. Additionally, isometric peak torque can be estimated using 3 levels of load, as we obtained the same results as those reported previously. We plan to expand the range of subjects and examine the generalizability of our results.

2D modeling of DC potential structures induced by RF sheaths with transverse currents in front of ICRF antenna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faudot, E.; Heuraux, S.; Colas, L.

2005-09-01

Understanding DC potential generation in front of ICRF antennas is crucial for long pulse high RF power systems. DC potentials are produced by sheath rectification of these RF potentials. To reach this goal, near RF parallel electric fields have to be computed in 3D and integrated along open magnetic field lines to yield a 2D RF potential map in a transverse plane. DC potentials are produced by sheath rectification of these RF potentials. As RF potentials are spatially inhomogeneous, transverse polarization currents are created, modifying RF and DC maps. Such modifications are quantified on a `test map' having initially a Gaussian shape and assuming that the map remains Gaussian near its summit,the time behavior of the peak can be estimated analytically in presence of polarization current as a function of its width r0 and amplitude φ0 (normalized to a characteristic length for transverse transport and to the local temperature). A `peaking factor' is built from the DC peak potential normalized to φ0, and validated with a 2D fluid code and a 2D PIC code (XOOPIC). In an unexpected way transverse currents can increase this factor. Realistic situations of a Tore Supra antenna are also studied, with self-consistent near fields provided by ICANT code. Basic processes will be detailed and an evaluation of the `peaking factor' for ITER will be presented for a given configuration.

2D modeling of DC potential structures induced by RF sheaths with transverse currents in front of ICRF antenna

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faudot, E.; Heuraux, S.; Colas, L.

2005-09-26

Understanding DC potential generation in front of ICRF antennas is crucial for long pulse high RF power systems. DC potentials are produced by sheath rectification of these RF potentials. To reach this goal, near RF parallel electric fields have to be computed in 3D and integrated along open magnetic field lines to yield a 2D RF potential map in a transverse plane. DC potentials are produced by sheath rectification of these RF potentials. As RF potentials are spatially inhomogeneous, transverse polarization currents are created, modifying RF and DC maps. Such modifications are quantified on a 'test map' having initially amore » Gaussian shape and assuming that the map remains Gaussian near its summit,the time behavior of the peak can be estimated analytically in presence of polarization current as a function of its width r0 and amplitude {phi}0 (normalized to a characteristic length for transverse transport and to the local temperature). A 'peaking factor' is built from the DC peak potential normalized to {phi}0, and validated with a 2D fluid code and a 2D PIC code (XOOPIC). In an unexpected way transverse currents can increase this factor. Realistic situations of a Tore Supra antenna are also studied, with self-consistent near fields provided by ICANT code. Basic processes will be detailed and an evaluation of the 'peaking factor' for ITER will be presented for a given configuration.« less

A comparison of Q-factor estimation methods for marine seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, J.; Ha, J.; Shin, S.; Chung, W.; Lim, C.; Lee, D.

2016-12-01

The seismic imaging technique draws information from inside the earth using seismic reflection and transmission data. This technique is an important method in geophysical exploration. Also, it has been employed widely as a means of locating oil and gas reservoirs because it offers information on geological media. There is much recent and active research into seismic attenuation and how it determines the quality of seismic imaging. Seismic attenuation is determined by various geological characteristics, through the absorption or scattering that occurs when the seismic wave passes through a geological medium. The seismic attenuation can be defined using an attenuation coefficient and represented as a non-dimensional variable known as the Q-factor. Q-factor is a unique characteristic of a geological medium. It is a very important material property for oil and gas resource development. Q-factor can be used to infer other characteristics of a medium, such as porosity, permeability and viscosity, and can directly indicate the presence of hydrocarbons to identify oil and gas bearing areas from the seismic data. There are various ways to estimate Q-factor in three different domains. In the time domain, pulse amplitude decay, pulse rising time, and pulse broadening are representative. Logarithm spectral ratio (LSR), centroid frequency shift (CFS), and peak frequency shift (PFS) are used in the frequency domain. In the time-frequency domain, Wavelet's Envelope Peak Instantaneous Frequency (WEPIF) is most frequently employed. In this study, we estimated and analyzed the Q-factor through the numerical model test and used 4 methods: the LSR, CFS, PFS, and WEPIF. Before we applied these 4 methods to observed data, we experimented with the numerical model test. The numerical model test data is derived from Norsar-2D, which is the basis of the ray-tracing algorithm, and we used reflection and normal incidence surveys to calculate Q-factor according to the array of sources and receivers. After the numerical model test, we chose the most accurate of the 4 methods by comparing Q-factor through reflection and normal incidence surveys. We applied the method to the observed data and proved its accuracy.

Effects of urban development on stormwater runoff characteristics for the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liscum, Fred

2001-01-01

A study was done to estimate the effects of urban development in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area on nine stormwater runoff characteristics. Three of the nine characteristics define the magnitude of stormwater runoff, and the remaining six characteristics describe the shape and duration of a storm hydrograph. Multiple linear regression was used to develop equations to estimate the nine stormwater runoff characteristics from basin and rainfall characteristics. Five basin characteristics and five rainfall characteristics were tested in the regressions to determine which basin and rainfall characteristics significantly affect stormwater runoff characteristics. Basin development factor was found to be significant in equations for eight of the nine stormwater runoff characteristics. Two sets of equations were developed, one for each of two regions based on soil type, from a database containing 1,089 storm discharge hydrographs for 42 sites compiled during 1964–89.The effects of urban development on the eight stormwater runoff characteristics were quantified by varying basin development factor in the equations and recomputing the stormwater runoff characteristics. The largest observed increase in basin development factor for region 1 (north of Buffalo Bayou) during the study resulted in corresponding increases in the characteristics that define magnitude of stormwater runoff ranging from about 40 percent (for direct runoff) to 235 percent (for peak yield); and corresponding decreases in the characteristics that describe hydrograph shape and duration ranging from about 22 percent (for direct runoff duration) to about 58 percent (for basin lag). The largest observed increase in basin development factor for region 2 (south of Buffalo Bayou) during the study resulted in corresponding increases in the characteristics that define magnitude of stormwater runoff ranging from about 33 percent (for direct runoff) to about 210 percent (for both peak flow and peak yield); and corresponding decreases in the characteristics that describe hydrograph shape and duration ranging from about 38 percent (for direct runoff duration) to about 64 percent (for basin lag). 

Stacked Weak Lensing Mass Calibration: Estimators, Systematics, and Impact on Cosmological Parameter Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rozo, Eduardo; /U. Chicago /Chicago U., KICP; Wu, Hao-Yi

2011-11-04

When extracting the weak lensing shear signal, one may employ either locally normalized or globally normalized shear estimators. The former is the standard approach when estimating cluster masses, while the latter is the more common method among peak finding efforts. While both approaches have identical signal-to-noise in the weak lensing limit, it is possible that higher order corrections or systematic considerations make one estimator preferable over the other. In this paper, we consider the efficacy of both estimators within the context of stacked weak lensing mass estimation in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that the two estimators havemore » nearly identical statistical precision, even after including higher order corrections, but that these corrections must be incorporated into the analysis to avoid observationally relevant biases in the recovered masses. We also demonstrate that finite bin-width effects may be significant if not properly accounted for, and that the two estimators exhibit different systematics, particularly with respect to contamination of the source catalog by foreground galaxies. Thus, the two estimators may be employed as a systematic cross-check of each other. Stacked weak lensing in the DES should allow for the mean mass of galaxy clusters to be calibrated to {approx}2% precision (statistical only), which can improve the figure of merit of the DES cluster abundance experiment by a factor of {approx}3 relative to the self-calibration expectation. A companion paper investigates how the two types of estimators considered here impact weak lensing peak finding efforts.« less

The epidemiology of viral meningitis hospitalization in childhood.

PubMed

Hviid, Anders; Melbye, Mads

2007-11-01

There have been few long-term population-based studies of viral meningitis, and only a limited number of potential risk factors have been evaluated. We estimated the incidence of viral meningitis hospitalization in childhood, and assessed risk factors for this disease through a population-based cohort study comprising all children born in Denmark from 1977 through 2001 (n = 1.5 million). Information on sex, number of children and adults in the household, age of parents at child's birth, degree of urbanization, birth weight, gestational age, and possible complications at birth were linked to the children in the cohort, together with information on hospitalization with viral meningitis. We calculated incidence rates of viral meningitis and estimated rate ratios according to the various risk factors using Poisson regression. The incidence rate was highest in the first 6 months of life (38.7 per 100,000 person-years), with a peak right after birth (58.7 per 100,000 person-years). A secondary peak was seen among 5-year-old children (15.6 per 100,000 person-years). Overall incidence rates decreased throughout the study period, with outbreaks occurring every 3 to 5 years [decrease in rate ratio per calendar year = 0.95; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-0.96]. Summer and early fall peaks were present. We observed independent effects of sex (girls vs. boys: rate ratio = 0.47 [95% CI = 0.43-0.53]), children in the household (eg, living with 3+ younger children vs. living with none: 1.94 [1.22-3.07]), single parenthood (living with 1 parent vs. living with 2 parents: 1.30 [1.12-1.39]), degree of urbanization (children living in the capital vs. children living in small town and rural areas: 1.54 [1.31-1.80]), low birth weight (increase in RR per 500 g reduction in birth weight = 1.05 [1.00-1.09]), prematurity (increase in RR per 1 week reduction in gestational age = 1.03 [1.01-1.04]), and cesarean section (cesarean section vs. vaginal birth: 1.29 [1.12-1.49]). Incidence of viral meningitis hospitalization is highest immediately after birth with a secondary peak at age 5. Lack of passive maternally acquired antibodies and preferential hospitalization are the likely causes for the peak in infancy. Increased transmission in kindergarten, preschool, and day care could explain the secondary peak. The incidence decreased throughout the 25-year study period perhaps due to improved public hygiene. Among the assessed risk factors, we found the strongest to be male sex, a high number of children in the household, and degree of urbanization.

Isothermal decay studies of intermediate energy levels in quartz.

PubMed

Veronese, I; Giussani, A; Göksu, H Y; Martini, M

2004-05-01

The recent interest in the thermoluminescence of quartz extracted from unfired building materials, such as mortar and concrete for dose reconstruction applications, led to the requirement of an accurate determination of the lifetime of the intermediate glow peaks in this mineral. The prediction of the lifetimes of these peaks is helpful in establishing the likely time range within which retrospective measurements can be carried out. These peaks, corresponding to intermediate energy levels, occur in the glow curve in the temperature range 150-250 degrees C (heating rate 2 degrees C/s). Lifetimes of 720+/-70 days and 580+/-70 years (at a temperature of 15 degrees C) were derived for the two main peaks placed in the glow curve at approximately 150 degrees C and 200 degrees C, respectively, using the isothermal decay technique. These results as well as the estimated values of the trap parameters (thermal activation energy and frequency factor) have been compared with the data already available in the literature.

Evaluation and modification of five techniques for estimating stormwater runoff for watersheds in west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trommer, J.T.; Loper, J.E.; Hammett, K.M.

1996-01-01

Several traditional techniques have been used for estimating stormwater runoff from ungaged watersheds. Applying these techniques to water- sheds in west-central Florida requires that some of the empirical relationships be extrapolated beyond tested ranges. As a result, there is uncertainty as to the accuracy of these estimates. Sixty-six storms occurring in 15 west-central Florida watersheds were initially modeled using the Rational Method, the U.S. Geological Survey Regional Regression Equations, the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 model, and the Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model. The techniques were applied according to the guidelines specified in the user manuals or standard engineering textbooks as though no field data were available and the selection of input parameters was not influenced by observed data. Computed estimates were compared with observed runoff to evaluate the accuracy of the techniques. One watershed was eliminated from further evaluation when it was determined that the area contributing runoff to the stream varies with the amount and intensity of rainfall. Therefore, further evaluation and modification of the input parameters were made for only 62 storms in 14 watersheds. Runoff ranged from 1.4 to 99.3 percent percent of rainfall. The average runoff for all watersheds included in this study was about 36 percent of rainfall. The average runoff for the urban, natural, and mixed land-use watersheds was about 41, 27, and 29 percent, respectively. Initial estimates of peak discharge using the rational method produced average watershed errors that ranged from an underestimation of 50.4 percent to an overestimation of 767 percent. The coefficient of runoff ranged from 0.20 to 0.60. Calibration of the technique produced average errors that ranged from an underestimation of 3.3 percent to an overestimation of 1.5 percent. The average calibrated coefficient of runoff for each watershed ranged from 0.02 to 0.72. The average values of the coefficient of runoff necessary to calibrate the urban, natural, and mixed land-use watersheds were 0.39, 0.16, and 0.08, respectively. The U.S. Geological Survey regional regression equations for determining peak discharge produced errors that ranged from an underestimation of 87.3 percent to an over- estimation of 1,140 percent. The regression equations for determining runoff volume produced errors that ranged from an underestimation of 95.6 percent to an overestimation of 324 percent. Regression equations developed from data used for this study produced errors that ranged between an underestimation of 82.8 percent and an over- estimation of 328 percent for peak discharge, and from an underestimation of 71.2 percent to an overestimation of 241 percent for runoff volume. Use of the equations developed for west-central Florida streams produced average errors for each type of watershed that were lower than errors associated with use of the U.S. Geological Survey equations. Initial estimates of peak discharges and runoff volumes using the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, produced average errors of 44.6 and 42.7 percent respectively, for all the watersheds. Curve numbers and times of concentration were adjusted to match estimated and observed peak discharges and runoff volumes. The average change in the curve number for all the watersheds was a decrease of 2.8 percent. The average change in the time of concentration was an increase of 59.2 percent. The shape of the input dimensionless unit hydrograph also had to be adjusted to match the shape and peak time of the estimated and observed flood hydrographs. Peak rate factors for the modified input dimensionless unit hydrographs ranged from 162 to 454. The mean errors for peak discharges and runoff volumes were reduced to 18.9 and 19.5 percent, respectively, using the average calibrated input parameters for ea

Regional regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency at sites in North Dakota using data through 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2015-08-06

Annual peak-flow frequency data from 231 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota and parts of Montana, South Dakota, and Minnesota, with 10 or more years of unregulated peak-flow record, were used to develop regional regression equations for exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 using generalized least-squares techniques. Updated peak-flow frequency estimates for 262 streamflow-gaging stations were developed using data through 2009 and log-Pearson Type III procedures outlined by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. An average generalized skew coefficient was determined for three hydrologic zones in North Dakota. A StreamStats web application was developed to estimate basin characteristics for the regional regression equation analysis. Methods for estimating a weighted peak-flow frequency for gaged sites and ungaged sites are presented.

Investigation on the real-time prediction of ground motions using seismic records observed in deep boreholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyakoshi, H.; Tsuno, S.

2013-12-01

The present method of the EEW system installed in the railway field of Japan predicts seismic ground motions based on the estimated earthquake information about epicentral distances and magnitudes using initial P-waves observed on the surface. In the case of local earthquakes beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, however, a method to directly predict seismic ground motions using P-waves observed in deep boreholes could issue EEWs more simply and surely. Besides, a method to predict seismic ground motions, using S-waves observed in deep boreholes and S-wave velocity structures beneath seismic stations, could show planar distributions of ground motions for train operation control areas in the aftermath of earthquakes. This information is available to decide areas in which the emergency inspection of railway structures should be performed. To develop those two methods, we investigated relationships between peak amplitudes on the surface and those in deep boreholes, using seismic records of KiK-net stations in the Kanto Basin. In this study, we used earthquake accelerograms observed in boreholes whose depths are deeper than the top face of Pre-Neogene basement and those on the surface at 12 seismic stations of KiK-net. We selected 243 local earthquakes whose epicenters are located around the Kanto Region. Those JMA magnitudes are in the range from 4.5 to 7.0. We picked the on-set of P-waves and S-waves using a vertical component and two horizontal components, respectively. Peak amplitudes of P-waves and S-waves were obtained using vertical components and vector sums of two horizontal components, respectively. We estimated parameters which represent site amplification factors beneath seismic stations, using peak amplitudes of S-waves observed in the deep borehole and those on the surface, to minimize the residuals between calculations by the theoretical equation and observations. Correlation coefficients between calculations and observations are high values in the range from 0.8 to 0.9. This result suggests that we could predict ground motions with the high accuracy using peak amplitudes of S-waves in deep boreholes and site amplification factors based on S-wave velocity structures. Also, we estimated parameters which represent radiation coefficients and the P/S velocity ratios around hypocentral regions, using peak amplitudes of P-waves and S-waves observed in deep boreholes, to minimize the residuals between calculations and observations. Correlation coefficients between calculations and observations are slightly lower values in the range from 0.7 to 0.9 than those for site amplification factors. This result suggests that the variability of radiation patterns for individual earthquakes affects the accuracy to predict ground motions using P-waves in deep boreholes.

Usefulness of anaerobic threshold to peak oxygen uptake ratio to determine the severity and pathophysiological condition of chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Tomono, Junichi; Adachi, Hitoshi; Oshima, Shigeru; Kurabayashi, Masahiko

2016-11-01

Anaerobic threshold (AT) and peak oxygen uptake (V˙O 2 ) are well known as indicators of severity and prognosis of heart failure. Since these parameters are regulated by many factors, multiple organ dysfunction may occur in chronic heart failure, and these two parameters would vary among patients. However, it is not clear whether AT and peak V˙O 2 deteriorate similarly. Therefore, we planned to compare the degree of deterioration of these two parameters using a ratio of AT and peak V˙O 2 (%AT/peak), and evaluated its significance in heart failure subjects. One hundred ninety-four stable heart failure patients who had optimal medical treatment for at least 3 months were enrolled. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing, echocardiography, and blood sampling were examined within one week. Since %AT/peak varied from 50.3% to 108.5%, we divided patients into tertiles of %AT/peak [Group A, 50.1-70.0 (n=112), Group B, 70.1-90.0 (n=64), Group C, 90.1-110.0 (n=18)], and compared factors relating with skeletal muscle and heart failure among these 3 groups. In Group A, ratio of measured AT against predicted value (%AT) and measured peak V˙O 2 against predicted value (%peak V˙O 2 ) were similar (80.3±19.0% and 80.4±17.1%, respectively). Peak V˙O 2 became lower as %AT/peak increased (Group B; 65.6±14.8%, p<0.01 vs. Group A, Group C; 38.3±9.7%, p<0.01 vs. Group B). On the other hand, %AT in Group B (77.1±18.5%) was similar to Group A, and diminished in Group C (58.0±8.2%, p<0.05 vs. Group B). Peak work rate and lean body mass were smaller in Group B than those in Group A. Although, left ventricular ejection fraction and E/E' deteriorated in Group B compared with Group A, plasma B-type natriuretic peptide and estimated glomerular filtration rate stayed constant in Group B and deteriorated in Group C. %AT/peak showed negative correlation with peak V˙O 2 . In chronic heart failure, muscle weakness occurs at an early stage, and this can be evaluated using %AT/peak. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of Common Approaches to Estimating Peak Skin Dose Resulting From Fluoroscopically Guided Interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Caleb Martin

Fluoroscopy guided procedures are increasing in complexity, and with that, Peak Skin Doses (PSD) that produce cutaneous radiation injury are a growing concern. Direct measurement of PSD is possible, but the decision to do so must be made in advance. PSD estimates and correctly monitoring their possible deterministic skin injuries are important to patient care. Three methods of indirect PSD estimation are examined for nine cases at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital. The aim of the study is to determine the magnitude of variation between these three methods for estimating the PSD. Method 1 (Fluoroscopy Time and Maximum Entrance Skin Exposure) was used at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital up until 2016. Methods 2 and 3 incorporate procedure information (Reference Point Air Kerma, Source-to-Patent distance, and Backscatter Factor) from DICOM (Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine) tags into PSD estimates. Method 1 PSD estimates are vastly different, by as much as 136%, than those from Methods 2 and 3. Method 2 and 3 PSD estimates differ very little, 7.3% or less. Governing bodies have discounted Method 1 as a reliable dose metric because of its poor correlation with PSD. The accuracy of Method 2 is suitable to determine PSD and which dose band a patient fits so their injuries can be accurately monitored. Method 3, the most time intensive approach, should only be used in the case of a sentinel event where a full investigation is warranted.

Estimation of peak discharge quantiles for selected annual exceedance probabilities in northeastern Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Over, Thomas M.; Saito, Riki J.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Soong, David T.; Ishii, Audrey L.

2016-06-28

This report provides two sets of equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively) for watersheds in Illinois based on annual maximum peak discharge data from 117 watersheds in and near northeastern Illinois. One set of equations was developed through a temporal analysis with a two-step least squares-quantile regression technique that measures the average effect of changes in the urbanization of the watersheds used in the study. The resulting equations can be used to adjust rural peak discharge quantiles for the effect of urbanization, and in this study the equations also were used to adjust the annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to 2010 urbanization conditions.The other set of equations was developed by a spatial analysis. This analysis used generalized least-squares regression to fit the peak discharge quantiles computed from the urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to drainage-basin characteristics. The peak discharge quantiles were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm following the removal of potentially influential low floods defined by a multiple Grubbs-Beck test. To improve the quantile estimates, regional skew coefficients were obtained from a newly developed regional skew model in which the skew increases with the urbanized land use fraction. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the spatial analysis include drainage area, the fraction of developed land, the fraction of land with poorly drained soils or likely water, and the basin slope estimated as the ratio of the basin relief to basin perimeter.This report also provides the following: (1) examples to illustrate the use of the spatial and urbanization-adjustment equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at ungaged sites and to improve flood-quantile estimates at and near a gaged site; (2) the urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharges and peak discharge quantile estimates at streamgages from 181 watersheds including the 117 study watersheds and 64 additional watersheds in the study region that were originally considered for use in the study but later deemed to be redundant.The urbanization-adjustment equations, spatial regression equations, and peak discharge quantile estimates developed in this study will be made available in the web application StreamStats, which provides automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected stream locations. Figures and tables comparing the observed and urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharge records by streamgage are provided at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20165050 for download.

Regional equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, Raymond M.

1997-01-01

Peak-streamflow frequency for 559 Texas stations with natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) basins was estimated with annual peak-streamflow data through 1993. The peak-streamflow frequency and drainage-basin characteristics for the Texas stations were used to develop 16 sets of equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged natural stream sites in each of 11 regions in Texas. The relation between peak-streamflow frequency and contributing drainage area for 5 of the 11 regions is curvilinear, requiring that one set of equations be developed for drainage areas less than 32 square miles and another set be developed for drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. These equations, developed through multiple-regression analysis using weighted least squares, are based on the relation between peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations. The regions represent areas with similar flood characteristics. The use and limitations of the regression equations also are discussed. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent confidence limits for any estimation from the equations. Also, supplemental peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for 105 selected stations bordering Texas are included in the report. This supplemental information will aid in interpretation of flood characteristics for sites near the state borders of Texas.

Seasonal and Interannual Variations in BC Emissions From Open Biomass Burning in Southern Africa From 1998 to 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, A.; Akimoto, H.

2006-12-01

We estimate the emissions of black carbon (BC) from open vegetation fires in southern hemisphere Africa from 1998 to 2005 using satellite information in conjunction with a biogeochemical model. Monthly burned areas at a 0.5-degree resolution are estimated from the Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) fire count product and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area data set associated with the MODIS tree cover imagery in grasslands and woodlands. The monthly fuel load distribution is derived from a 0.5- degree terrestrial carbon cycle model in conjunction with satellite data. The monthly maps of combustion factor and emission factor are estimated using empirical models that predict the effects of fuel conditions on these factors in grasslands and woodlands. Our annual averaged BC emitted per unit area burned is 0.17 g BC m-2 which is consistent with the product of fuel consumption and emission factor typically measured in southern Africa. The BC emissions from open vegetation burning in southern Africa ranged from 0.26 Tg BC yr-1 for 2002 to 0.42 Tg BC yr-1 for 1998. The peak in BC emissions is identical to that from previous top-down estimate using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) data. The sum of monthly emissions during the burning season in 2000 is in good agreement between our estimate (0.38 Tg) and previous estimate constrained by numerical model and measurements (0.47 Tg).

Frequency-Modulated, Continuous-Wave Laser Ranging Using Photon-Counting Detectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erkmen, Baris I.; Barber, Zeb W.; Dahl, Jason

2014-01-01

Optical ranging is a problem of estimating the round-trip flight time of a phase- or amplitude-modulated optical beam that reflects off of a target. Frequency- modulated, continuous-wave (FMCW) ranging systems obtain this estimate by performing an interferometric measurement between a local frequency- modulated laser beam and a delayed copy returning from the target. The range estimate is formed by mixing the target-return field with the local reference field on a beamsplitter and detecting the resultant beat modulation. In conventional FMCW ranging, the source modulation is linear in instantaneous frequency, the reference-arm field has many more photons than the target-return field, and the time-of-flight estimate is generated by balanced difference- detection of the beamsplitter output, followed by a frequency-domain peak search. This work focused on determining the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation algorithm when continuous-time photoncounting detectors are used. It is founded on a rigorous statistical characterization of the (random) photoelectron emission times as a function of the incident optical field, including the deleterious effects caused by dark current and dead time. These statistics enable derivation of the Cramér-Rao lower bound (CRB) on the accuracy of FMCW ranging, and derivation of the ML estimator, whose performance approaches this bound at high photon flux. The estimation algorithm was developed, and its optimality properties were shown in simulation. Experimental data show that it performs better than the conventional estimation algorithms used. The demonstrated improvement is a factor of 1.414 over frequency-domainbased estimation. If the target interrogating photons and the local reference field photons are costed equally, the optimal allocation of photons between these two arms is to have them equally distributed. This is different than the state of the art, in which the local field is stronger than the target return. The optimal processing of the photocurrent processes at the outputs of the two detectors is to perform log-matched filtering followed by a summation and peak detection. This implies that neither difference detection, nor Fourier-domain peak detection, which are the staples of the state-of-the-art systems, is optimal when a weak local oscillator is employed.

Peak-flow frequency estimates through 1994 for gaged streams in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burr, M.J.; Korkow, K.L.

1996-01-01

Annual peak-flow data are listed for 250 continuous-record and crest-stage gaging stations in South Dakota. Peak-flow frequency estimates for selected recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years are given for 234 of these 250 stations. The log-Pearson Type III procedure was used to compute the frequency relations for the 234 stations, which in 1994 included 105 active and 129 inactive stations. The log-Pearson Type III procedure is recommended by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982, "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency."No peak-flow frequency estimates are given for 16 of the 250 stations because: (1) of extreme variability in data set; (2) more than 20 percent of years had no flow; (3) annual peak flows represent large outflow from a spring; (4) of insufficient peak-flow record subsequent to reservoir regulation; and (5) peak-flow records were combined with records from nearby stations.

Flooding in the Northeastern United States, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suro, Thomas P.; Roland, Mark A.; Kiah, Richard G.

2015-12-31

The annual exceedance probability (AEP) for 327 streamgages in the Northeastern United States were computed using annual peak streamflow data through 2011 and are included in this report. The 2011 peak streamflow for 129 of those streamgages was estimated to have an AEP of less than or equal to 1 percent. Almost 100 of these peak streamflows were a result of the flooding associated with Hurricane Irene in late August 2011. More extreme than the 1-percent AEP, is the 0.2-percent AEP. The USGS recorded peak streamflows at 31 streamgages that equaled or exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent AEP during 2011. Collectively, the USGS recorded peak streamflows having estimated AEPs of less than 1 percent in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont and new period-of-record peak streamflows were recorded at more than 180 streamgages resulting from the floods of 2011.

Floods of August and September 2004 in Eastern Ohio: FEMA Disaster Declaration 1556

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebner, Andrew D.; Straub, David E.; Lageman, Jonathan D.

2008-01-01

A band of severe thunderstorms at the end of August 2004 and the passage of the remnants of Hurricanes Frances and Ivan during September 2004 caused severe flooding in eastern Ohio during August and September 2004. Record peak streamflow occurred at 12 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages. Damages caused by the flooding produced by these storms were severe enough for 21 counties in eastern Ohio to be declared Federal disaster areas. In all, there were 4 storm- or flood-related deaths, 2,563 private structures damaged or destroyed, and an estimated $81 million in damages. This report describes the meteorological factors that resulted in severe flooding in eastern Ohio during August 27-September 27, 2004, and examines the damages caused by the storms and flooding. Peak-stage, peak-streamflow, and recurrence-interval data are reported for selected USGS streamgages. Flood profiles determined by the USGS are presented for selected streams.

Estimating the Mechanical Behavior of the Knee Joint during Crouch Gait: Implications for Real-Time Motor Control of Robotic Knee Orthoses

PubMed Central

Damiano, Diane L.; Bulea, Thomas C.

2016-01-01

Individuals with cerebral palsy frequently exhibit crouch gait, a pathological walking pattern characterized by excessive knee flexion. Knowledge of the knee joint moment during crouch gait is necessary for the design and control of assistive devices used for treatment. Our goal was to 1) develop statistical models to estimate knee joint moment extrema and dynamic stiffness during crouch gait, and 2) use the models to estimate the instantaneous joint moment during weight-acceptance. We retrospectively computed knee moments from 10 children with crouch gait and used stepwise linear regression to develop statistical models describing the knee moment features. The models explained at least 90% of the response value variability: peak moment in early (99%) and late (90%) stance, and dynamic stiffness of weight-acceptance flexion (94%) and extension (98%). We estimated knee extensor moment profiles from the predicted dynamic stiffness and instantaneous knee angle. This approach captured the timing and shape of the computed moment (root-mean-squared error: 2.64 Nm); including the predicted early-stance peak moment as a correction factor improved model performance (root-mean-squared error: 1.37 Nm). Our strategy provides a practical, accurate method to estimate the knee moment during crouch gait, and could be used for real-time, adaptive control of robotic orthoses. PMID:27101612

Estimating the volatilization of ammonia from synthetic nitrogenous fertilizers used in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yisheng; Luan, Shengji; Chen, Liaoliao; Shao, Min

2011-03-01

Although it has long been recognized that significant amounts of nitrogen, typically in the form of ammonia (NH(3)) applied as fertilizer, are lost to the atmosphere, accurate estimates are lacking for many locations. In this study, a detailed, bottom-up method for estimating NH(3) emissions from synthetic fertilizers in China was used. The total amount emitted in 2005 in China was estimated to be 3.55 Tg NH(3)-N, with an uncertainty of ± 50%. This estimate was considerably lower than previously published values. Emissions from urea and ammonium bicarbonate accounted for 64.3% and 26.5%, respectively, of the 2005 total. The NH(3) emission inventory incorporated 2448 county-level data points, categorized on a monthly basis, and was developed with more accurate activity levels and emission factors than had been used in previous assessments. There was considerable variability in the emissions within a province. The NH(3) emissions generally peaked in the spring and summer, accounting for 30.1% and 48.8%, respectively, of total emissions in 2005. The peaks correlated with crop planting and fertilization schedules. The NH(3) regional distribution pattern showed strong correspondence with planting techniques and local arable land areas. The regions with the highest atmospheric losses are located in eastern China, especially the North China Plain and the Taihu region. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural factors affecting 13C NMR chemical shifts of cellulose: a computational study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Hui; Wang, Tuo; Oehme, Daniel

Here, the doublet C4 peaks at ~ 85 and ~ 89 ppm in solid-state 13C NMR spectra of native cellulose have been attributed to signals of C4 atoms on the surface (solvent-exposed) and in the interior of microfibrils, designated as sC4 and iC4, respectively. The relative intensity ratios of sC4 and iC4 observed in NMR spectra of cellulose have been used to estimate the degree of crystallinity of cellulose and the number of glucan chains in cellulose microfibrils. However, the molecular structures of cellulose responsible for the specific surface and interior C4 peaks have not been positively confirmed. Using densitymore » functional theory (DFT) methods and structures produced from classical molecular dynamics simulations, we investigated how the following four factors affect 13C NMR chemical shifts in cellulose: conformations of exocyclic groups at C6 ( tg, gt and gg), H 2O molecules H-bonded on the surface of the microfibril, glycosidic bond angles (Φ, Ψ) and the distances between H4 and HO3 atoms. We focus on changes in the δ 13C4 value because it is the most significant observable for the same C atom within the cellulose structure. DFT results indicate that different conformations of the exocyclic groups at C6 have the greatest influence on δ 13C4 peak separation, while the other three factors have secondary effects that increase the spread of the calculated C4 interior and surface peaks.« less

Structural factors affecting 13C NMR chemical shifts of cellulose: a computational study

DOE PAGES

Yang, Hui; Wang, Tuo; Oehme, Daniel; ...

2017-11-02

Here, the doublet C4 peaks at ~ 85 and ~ 89 ppm in solid-state 13C NMR spectra of native cellulose have been attributed to signals of C4 atoms on the surface (solvent-exposed) and in the interior of microfibrils, designated as sC4 and iC4, respectively. The relative intensity ratios of sC4 and iC4 observed in NMR spectra of cellulose have been used to estimate the degree of crystallinity of cellulose and the number of glucan chains in cellulose microfibrils. However, the molecular structures of cellulose responsible for the specific surface and interior C4 peaks have not been positively confirmed. Using densitymore » functional theory (DFT) methods and structures produced from classical molecular dynamics simulations, we investigated how the following four factors affect 13C NMR chemical shifts in cellulose: conformations of exocyclic groups at C6 ( tg, gt and gg), H 2O molecules H-bonded on the surface of the microfibril, glycosidic bond angles (Φ, Ψ) and the distances between H4 and HO3 atoms. We focus on changes in the δ 13C4 value because it is the most significant observable for the same C atom within the cellulose structure. DFT results indicate that different conformations of the exocyclic groups at C6 have the greatest influence on δ 13C4 peak separation, while the other three factors have secondary effects that increase the spread of the calculated C4 interior and surface peaks.« less

Validation of one-mile walk equations for the estimation of aerobic fitness in British military personnel under the age of 40 years.

PubMed

Lunt, Heather; Roiz De Sa, Daniel; Roiz De Sa, Julia; Allsopp, Adrian

2013-07-01

To provide an accurate estimate of peak oxygen uptake (VO2 peak) for British Royal Navy Personnel aged between 18 and 39, comparing a gold standard treadmill based maximal exercise test with a submaximal one-mile walk test. Two hundred military personnel consented to perform a treadmill-based VO2 peak test and two one-mile walk tests round an athletics track. The estimated VO2 peak values from three different one-mile walk equations were compared to directly measured VO2 peak values from the treadmill-based test. One hundred participants formed a validation group from which a new equation was derived and the other 100 participants formed the cross-validation group. Existing equations underestimated the VO2 peak values of the fittest personnel and overestimated the VO2 peak of the least aerobically fit by between 2% and 18%. The new equation derived from the validation group has less bias, the highest correlation with the measured values (r = 0.83), and classified the most people correctly according to the Royal Navy's Fitness Test standards, producing the fewest false positives and false negatives combined (9%). The new equation will provide a more accurate estimate of VO2 peak for a British military population aged 18 to 39. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Spread of activation and deactivation in the brain: does age matter?

PubMed Central

Gordon, Brian A.; Tse, Chun-Yu; Gratton, Gabriele; Fabiani, Monica

2014-01-01

Cross-sectional aging functional MRI results are sometimes difficult to interpret, as standard measures of activation and deactivation may confound variations in signal amplitude and spread, which however, may be differentially affected by age-related changes in various anatomical and physiological factors. To disentangle these two types of measures, here we propose a novel method to obtain independent estimates of the peak amplitude and spread of the BOLD signal in areas activated (task-positive) and deactivated (task-negative) by a Sternberg task, in 14 younger and 28 older adults. The peak measures indicated that, compared to younger adults, older adults had increased activation of the task-positive network, but similar levels of deactivation in the task-negative network. Measures of signal spread revealed that older adults had an increased spread of activation in task-positive areas, but a starkly reduced spread of deactivation in task-negative areas. These effects were consistent across regions within each network. Further, there was greater variability in the anatomical localization of peak points in older adults, leading to reduced cross-subject overlap. These results reveal factors that may confound the interpretation of studies of aging. Additionally, spread measures may be linked to local connectivity phenomena and could be particularly useful to analyze age-related deactivation patterns, complementing the results obtained with standard peak and region of interest analyses. PMID:25360115

Flood frequency estimates and documented and potential extreme peak discharges in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

2001-01-01

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the dividing line.

Adjustment of spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in a high Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a method for correcting the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation fields in a mountainous environment. The approach is applied within a flood forecasting model in the Upper Enns catchment in the Central Austrian Alps. Precipitation exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability in Alpine areas. Additionally the density of the monitoring network is low and measurements are subjected to major errors. This can lead to significant deficits in water balance estimation and stream flow simulations, e.g. for flood forecasting models. Therefore precipitation correction factors are frequently applied. For the presented study a multiplicative, stepwise linear correction model is implemented in the rainfall-runoff model COSERO to adjust the precipitation pattern as a function of elevation. To account for the local meteorological conditions, the correction model is derived for two elevation zones: (1) Valley floors to 2000 m a.s.l. and (2) above 2000 m a.s.l. to mountain peaks. Measurement errors also depend on the precipitation type, with higher magnitudes in winter months during snow fall. Therefore, additionally, separate correction factors for winter and summer months are estimated. Significant improvements in the runoff simulations could be achieved, not only in the long-term water balance simulation and the overall model performance, but also in the simulation of flood peaks.

The effect of multiple stressors on salt marsh end-of-season biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Visser, J.M.; Sasser, C.E.; Cade, B.S.

2006-01-01

It is becoming more apparent that commonly used statistical methods (e.g., analysis of variance and regression) are not the best methods for estimating limiting relationships or stressor effects. A major challenge of estimating the effects associated with a measured subset of limiting factors is to account for the effects of unmeasured factors in an ecologically realistic matter. We used quantile regression to elucidate multiple stressor effects on end-of-season biomass data from two salt marsh sites in coastal Louisiana collected for 18 yr. Stressor effects evaluated based on available data were flooding, salinity, air temperature, cloud cover, precipitation deficit, grazing by muskrat, and surface water nitrogen and phosphorus. Precipitation deficit combined with surface water nitrogen provided the best two-parameter model to explain variation in the peak biomass with different slopes and intercepts for the two study sites. Precipitation deficit, cloud cover, and temperature were significantly correlated with each other. Surface water nitrogen was significantly correlated with surface water phosphorus and muskrat density. The site with the larger duration of flooding showed reduced peak biomass, when cloud cover and surface water nitrogen were optimal. Variation in the relatively low salinity occurring in our study area did not explain any of the variation in Spartina alterniflora biomass. ?? 2006 Estuarine Research Federation.

The effect of multiple stressors on salt marsh end-of-season biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Visser, J.M.; Sasser, C.E.; Cade, B.S.

2006-01-01

It is becoming more apparent that commonly used statistical methods (e.g. analysis of variance and regression) are not the best methods for estimating limiting relationships or stressor effects. A major challenge of estimating the effects associated with a measured subset of limiting factors is to account for the effects of unmeasured factors in an ecologically realistic matter. We used quantile regression to elucidate multiple stressor effects on end-of-season biomass data from two salt marsh sites in coastal Louisiana collected for 18 yr. Stressor effects evaluated based on available data were flooding, salinity air temperature, cloud cover, precipitation deficit, grazing by muskrat, and surface water nitrogen and phosphorus. Precipitation deficit combined with surface water nitrogen provided the best two-parameter model to explain variation in the peak biomass with different slopes and intercepts for the two study sites. Precipitation deficit, cloud cover, and temperature were significantly correlated with each other. Surface water nitrogen was significantly correlated with surface water phosphorus and muskrat density. The site with the larger duration of flooding showed reduced peak biomass, when cloud cover and surface water nitrogen were optimal. Variation in the relatively low salinity occurring in our study area did not explain any of the variation in Spartina alterniflora biomass.

Osteoporosis: Peak Bone Mass in Women

MedlinePlus

... Osteoporosis: Peak Bone Mass in Women Osteoporosis: Peak Bone Mass in Women Bones are the framework for ... that affect peak bone mass. Factors Affecting Peak Bone Mass A variety of genetic and environmental factors ...

Prediction of Maximal Aerobic Capacity in Severely Burned Children

PubMed Central

Porro, Laura; Rivero, Haidy G.; Gonzalez, Dante; Tan, Alai; Herndon, David N.; Suman, Oscar E.

2011-01-01

Introduction Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 peak) is an indicator of cardiorespiratory fitness, but requires expensive equipment and a relatively high technical skill level. Purpose The aim of this study is to provide a formula for estimating VO2 peak in burned children, using information obtained without expensive equipment. Methods Children, with ≥40% total surface area burned (TBSA), underwent a modified Bruce treadmill test to asses VO2 peak at 6 months after injury. We recorded gender, age, %TBSA, %3rd degree burn, height, weight, treadmill time, maximal speed, maximal grade, and peak heart rate, and applied McHenry’s select algorithm to extract important independent variables and Robust multiple regression to establish prediction equations. Results 42 children; 7 to 17 years old were tested. Robust multiple regression model provided the equation: VO2=10.33 – 0.62 *Age (years) + 1.88 * Treadmill Time (min) + 2.3 (gender; Females = 0, Males = 1). The correlation between measured and estimated VO2 peak was R=0.80. We then validated the equation with a group of 33 burned children, which yielded a correlation between measured and estimated VO2 peak of R=0.79. Conclusions Using only a treadmill and easily gathered information, VO2 peak can be estimated in children with burns. PMID:21316155

Normative reference values for the 20 m shuttle-run test in a population-based sample of school-aged youth in Bogota, Colombia: the FUPRECOL study.

PubMed

Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson; Palacios-López, Adalberto; Humberto Prieto-Benavides, Daniel; Enrique Correa-Bautista, Jorge; Izquierdo, Mikel; Alonso-Martínez, Alicia; Lobelo, Felipe

2017-01-01

Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk. A total of 7244 children and adolescents attending public schools in Bogota, Colombia (55.7% girls; age range of 9-17.9 years) participated in this study. We expressed CRF performance as the nearest stage (minute) completed and the estimated peak oxygen consumption (V˙O 2peak ). Smoothed percentile curves were calculated. In addition, we present the prevalence of low CRF after applying a correction factor to account for the impact of Bogota's altitude (2625 m over sea level) on CRF assessment, and we calculated the number of participants who fell below health-related FITNESSGRAM cut-points for low CRF. Shuttles and V˙O 2peak were higher in boys than in girls in all age groups. In boys, there were higher levels of performance with increasing age, with most gains between the ages of 13 and 17. The proportion of subjects with a low CRF, suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk (health risk FITNESSGRAM category) was 31.5% (28.2% for boys and 34.1% for girls; X 2 P = .001). After applying a 1.11 altitude correction factor, the overall prevalence of low CRF was 11.5% (9.6% for boys and 13.1% for girls; X 2 P = .001). Our results provide sex- and age-specific normative reference standards for the 20 m shuttle-run test and estimated V˙O 2peak values in a large, population-based sample of schoolchildren from a large Latin-American city at high altitude. © 2016 The Authors American Journal of Human Biology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimation of traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Messinger, Terence

2013-01-01

Traveltime and dispersion data are important for understanding and responding to spills of contaminants in waterways. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Office of Environmental Health Services, compiled and evaluated traveltime and longitudinal dispersion data representative of many West Virginia waterways. Traveltime and dispersion data were not available for streams in the northwestern part of the State. Compiled data were compared with estimates determined from national equations previously published by the USGS. The evaluation summarized procedures and examples for estimating traveltime and dispersion on streams in West Virginia. National equations developed by the USGS can be used to predict traveltime and dispersion for streams located in West Virginia, but the predictions will be less accurate than those made with graphical interpolation between measurements. National equations for peak concentration, velocity of the peak concentration, and traveltime of the leading edge had root mean square errors (RMSE) of 0.426 log units (127 percent), 0.505 feet per second (ft/s), and 3.78 hours (h). West Virginia data fit the national equations for peak concentration, velocity of the peak concentration, and traveltime of the leading edge with RMSE of 0.139 log units (38 percent), 0.630 ft/s, and 3.38 h, respectively. The national equation for maximum possible velocity of the peak concentration exceeded 99 percent and 100 percent of observed values from the national data set and West Virginia-only data set, respectively. No RMSE was reported for time of passage of a dye cloud, as estimated using the national equation; however, the estimates made using the national equations had a root mean square error of 3.82 h when compared to data gathered for this study. Traveltime and dispersion estimates can be made from the plots of traveltime as a function of streamflow and location for streams with plots available, but estimates can be made using the national equations for streams without plots. The estimating procedures are not valid for regulated stream reaches that were not individually studied or streamflows outside the limits studied. Rapidly changing streamflow and inadequate mixing across the stream channel affect traveltime and dispersion, and reduce the accuracy of estimates. Increases in streamflow typically result in decreases in the peak concentration and traveltime of the peak concentration. Decreases in streamflow typically result in increases in the peak concentration and traveltime of the peak concentration. Traveltimes will likely be less than those determined using the estimating equations and procedures if the spill is in the center of the stream, and traveltimes will likely be greater than those determined using the estimating equations and procedures if the spill is near the streambank.

Calculating weighted estimates of peak streamflow statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Berenbrock, Charles; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2012-01-01

According to the Federal guidelines for flood-frequency estimation, the uncertainty of peak streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flow at a streamgage, can be reduced by combining the at-site estimate with the regional regression estimate to obtain a weighted estimate of the flow statistic. The procedure assumes the estimates are independent, which is reasonable in most practical situations. The purpose of this publication is to describe and make available a method for calculating a weighted estimate from the uncertainty or variance of the two independent estimates.

Perfusion CT of the Brain and Liver and of Lung Tumors: Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for Patient Dose Estimation for Examinations With a Cone-Beam 320-MDCT Scanner.

PubMed

Cros, Maria; Geleijns, Jacob; Joemai, Raoul M S; Salvadó, Marçal

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the patient dose from perfusion CT examinations of the brain, lung tumors, and the liver on a cone-beam 320-MDCT scanner using a Monte Carlo simulation and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). A Monte Carlo simulation based on the Electron Gamma Shower Version 4 package code was used to calculate organ doses and the effective dose in the reference computational phantoms for an adult man and adult woman as published by the ICRP. Three perfusion CT acquisition protocols--brain, lung tumor, and liver perfusion--were evaluated. Additionally, dose assessments were performed for the skin and for the eye lens. Conversion factors were obtained to estimate effective doses and organ doses from the volume CT dose index and dose-length product. The sex-averaged effective doses were approximately 4 mSv for perfusion CT of the brain and were between 23 and 26 mSv for the perfusion CT body protocols. The eye lens dose from the brain perfusion CT examination was approximately 153 mGy. The sex-averaged peak entrance skin dose (ESD) was 255 mGy for the brain perfusion CT studies, 157 mGy for the lung tumor perfusion CT studies, and 172 mGy for the liver perfusion CT studies. The perfusion CT protocols for imaging the brain, lung tumors, and the liver performed on a 320-MDCT scanner yielded patient doses that are safely below the threshold doses for deterministic effects. The eye lens dose, peak ESD, and effective doses can be estimated for other clinical perfusion CT examinations from the conversion factors that were derived in this study.

Estimating exercise capacity from walking tests in elderly individuals with stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Mandic, Sandra; Walker, Robert; Stevens, Emily; Nye, Edwin R; Body, Dianne; Barclay, Leanne; Williams, Michael J A

2013-01-01

Compared with symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), timed walking tests are cheaper, well-tolerated and simpler alternative for assessing exercise capacity in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients. We developed multivariate models for predicting peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) from 6-minute walk test (6MWT) distance and peak shuttle walk speed for elderly stable CAD patients. Fifty-eight CAD patients (72 SD 6 years, 66% men) completed: (1) CPET with expired gas analysis on a cycle ergometer, (2) incremental 10-meter shuttle walk test, (3) two 6MWTs, (4) anthropometric assessment and (5) 30-second chair stands. Linear regression models were developed for estimating VO2peak from 6MWT distance and peak shuttle walk speed as well as demographic, anthropometric and functional variables. Measured VO2peak was significantly related to 6MWT distance (r = 0.719, p < 0.001) and peak shuttle walk speed (r = 0.717, p < 0.001). The addition of demographic (age, gender), anthropometric (height, weight, body mass index, body composition) and functional characteristics (30-second chair stands) increased the accuracy of predicting VO2peak from both 6MWT distance and peak shuttle walk speed (from 51% to 73% of VO2peak variance explained). Addition of demographic, anthropometric and functional characteristics improves the accuracy of VO2peak estimate based on walking tests in elderly individuals with stable CAD. Implications for Rehabilitation Timed walking tests are cheaper, well-tolerated and simpler alternative for assessing exercise capacity in cardiac patients. Walking tests could be used to assess individual's functional capacity and response to therapeutic interventions when symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing is not practical or not necessary for clinical reasons. Addition of demographic, anthropometric and functional characteristics improves the accuracy of peak oxygen consumption estimate based on 6-minute walk test distance and peak shuttle walk speed in elderly patients with coronary artery disease.

Peak-picking fundamental period estimation for hearing prostheses.

PubMed

Howard, D M

1989-09-01

A real-time peak-picking fundamental period estimation device is described which is used in advanced hearing prostheses for the totally and profoundly deafened. The operation of the peak picker is compared with three well-established fundamental frequency estimation techniques: the electrolaryngograph, which is used as a "standard" hardware implementations of the cepstral technique, and the Gold/Rabiner parallel processing algorithm. These comparisons illustrate and highlight some of the important advantages and disadvantages that characterize the operation of these techniques. The special requirements of the hearing prostheses are discussed with respect to the operation of each device, and the choice of the peak picker is found to be felicitous in this application.

Hepatic ischemia reperfusion injury is associated with acute kidney injury following donation after brain death liver transplantation.

PubMed

Leithead, Joanna A; Armstrong, Matthew J; Corbett, Christopher; Andrew, Mark; Kothari, Chirag; Gunson, Bridget K; Muiesan, Paolo; Ferguson, James W

2013-11-01

Donation after cardiac death liver transplant recipients have an increased frequency of acute kidney injury (AKI). This suggests that hepatic ischemia-reperfusion injury may play a critical role in the pathogenesis of AKI after liver transplantation. The aim of this single-center study was to determine if hepatic ischemia-reperfusion injury, estimated by peak peri-operative serum amino-transferase (AST), is associated with AKI following donation after brain death (DBD) liver transplantation. A total of 296 patients received 298 DBD liver transplants from January 2007 to June 2011. The incidence of AKI was 35.9%. AKI was a risk factor for chronic kidney disease (P = 0.037) and mortality (P = 0.002). On univariate analysis, peak AST correlated with peak creatinine (P < 0.001) and peak change in creatinine from baseline (P < 0.001). Peak AST was higher in AKI patients (P < 0.001). The incidence of AKI in patients with a peak AST of <1500, 1500-2999 and ≥ 3000 U/l was 26.1%, 39.8% and 71.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). On multiple logistic regression analysis, peak AST was independently associated with the development of AKI (P < 0.001). In conclusion, hepatic ischemia-reperfusion injury demonstrates a strong relationship with peri-operative AKI in DBD liver transplant recipients. © 2013 Steunstichting ESOT. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dark-field transmission electron microscopy and the Debye-Waller factor of graphene

PubMed Central

Hubbard, William A.; White, E. R.; Dawson, Ben; Lodge, M. S.; Ishigami, Masa; Regan, B. C.

2014-01-01

Graphene's structure bears on both the material's electronic properties and fundamental questions about long range order in two-dimensional crystals. We present an analytic calculation of selected area electron diffraction from multi-layer graphene and compare it with data from samples prepared by chemical vapor deposition and mechanical exfoliation. A single layer scatters only 0.5% of the incident electrons, so this kinematical calculation can be considered reliable for five or fewer layers. Dark-field transmission electron micrographs of multi-layer graphene illustrate how knowledge of the diffraction peak intensities can be applied for rapid mapping of thickness, stacking, and grain boundaries. The diffraction peak intensities also depend on the mean-square displacement of atoms from their ideal lattice locations, which is parameterized by a Debye-Waller factor. We measure the Debye-Waller factor of a suspended monolayer of exfoliated graphene and find a result consistent with an estimate based on the Debye model. For laboratory-scale graphene samples, finite size effects are sufficient to stabilize the graphene lattice against melting, indicating that ripples in the third dimension are not necessary. PMID:25242882

Dark-field transmission electron microscopy and the Debye-Waller factor of graphene.

PubMed

Shevitski, Brian; Mecklenburg, Matthew; Hubbard, William A; White, E R; Dawson, Ben; Lodge, M S; Ishigami, Masa; Regan, B C

2013-01-15

Graphene's structure bears on both the material's electronic properties and fundamental questions about long range order in two-dimensional crystals. We present an analytic calculation of selected area electron diffraction from multi-layer graphene and compare it with data from samples prepared by chemical vapor deposition and mechanical exfoliation. A single layer scatters only 0.5% of the incident electrons, so this kinematical calculation can be considered reliable for five or fewer layers. Dark-field transmission electron micrographs of multi-layer graphene illustrate how knowledge of the diffraction peak intensities can be applied for rapid mapping of thickness, stacking, and grain boundaries. The diffraction peak intensities also depend on the mean-square displacement of atoms from their ideal lattice locations, which is parameterized by a Debye-Waller factor. We measure the Debye-Waller factor of a suspended monolayer of exfoliated graphene and find a result consistent with an estimate based on the Debye model. For laboratory-scale graphene samples, finite size effects are sufficient to stabilize the graphene lattice against melting, indicating that ripples in the third dimension are not necessary.

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

2015-01-01

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi blazars with Doppler factors (Fan+, 2017)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, J. H.; Yang, J. H.; Xiao, H. B.; Lin, C.; Constantin, D.; Luo, G. Y.; Pei, Z. Y.; Hao, J. M.; Mao, Y. W.

2017-09-01

Blazars are an extreme subclass of active galactic nuclei. Their rapid variability, luminous brightness, superluminal motion, and high and variable polarization are probably due to a beaming effect. However, this beaming factor (or Doppler factor) is very difficult to measure. Currently, a good way to estimate it is to use the timescale of their radio flares. In this Letter, we use multiwavelength data and Doppler factors reported in the literature for a sample of 86 flaring blazars detected by Fermi to compute their intrinsic multiwavelength data and intrinsic spectral energy distributions and investigate the correlations among observed and intrinsic data. Quite interestingly, intrinsic data show a positive correlation between luminosity and peak frequency, in contrast with the behavior of observed data, and a tighter correlation between γ-ray luminosity and the lower-energy ones. For flaring blazars detected by Fermi, we conclude that (1) observed emissions are strongly beamed; (2) the anti-correlation between luminosity and peak frequency from the observed data is an apparent result, the correlation between intrinsic data being positive; and (3) intrinsic γ-ray luminosity is strongly correlated with other intrinsic luminosities. (2 data files).

Preliminary radiological safety assessment for decommissioning of thoria dissolver of the ²³³U pilot plant, Trombay.

PubMed

Priya, S; Srinivasan, P; Gopalakrishnan, R K

2012-01-01

The thoria dissolver, used for separation of (233)U from reactor-irradiated thorium metal and thorium oxide rods, is no longer operational. It was decided to carry out assessment of the radiological status of the dissolver cell for planning of the future decommissioning/dismantling operations. The dissolver interiors are expected to be contaminated with the dissolution remains of irradiated thorium oxide rods in addition to some of the partially dissolved thoria pellets. Hence, (220)Rn, a daughter product of (228)Th is of major radiological concern. Airborne activity of thoron daughters (212)Pb (Th-B) and (212)Bi (Th-C) was estimated by air sampling followed by high-resolution gamma spectrometry of filter papers. By measuring the full-energy peaks counts in the energy windows of (212)Pb, (212)Bi and (208)Tl, concentrations of thoron progeny in the sampled air were estimated by applying the respective intrinsic peak efficiency factors and suitable correction factors for the equilibration effects of (212)Pb and (212)Bi in the filter paper during the delay between sampling and counting. Then the thoron working level (TWL) was evaluated using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) methodology. Finally, the potential effective dose to the workers, due to inhalation of thoron and its progeny during dismantling operations was assessed by using dose conversion factors recommended by ICRP. Analysis of filter papers showed a maximum airborne thoron progeny concentration of 30 TWLs inside the dissolver.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of peak flows for natural streams in Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenney, Terry A.; Wilkowske, Chris D.; Wright, Shane J.

2007-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows is critical for the safe and cost-effective design of hydraulic structures and stream crossings, and accurate delineation of flood plains. Engineers, planners, resource managers, and scientists need accurate estimates of peak-flow return frequencies for locations on streams with and without streamflow-gaging stations. The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows were estimated for 344 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Utah and nearby in bordering states. These data along with 23 basin and climatic characteristics computed for each station were used to develop regional peak-flow frequency and magnitude regression equations for 7 geohydrologic regions of Utah. These regression equations can be used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of peak flows for natural streams in Utah within the presented range of predictor variables. Uncertainty, presented as the average standard error of prediction, was computed for each developed equation. Equations developed using data from more than 35 gaging stations had standard errors of prediction that ranged from 35 to 108 percent, and errors for equations developed using data from less than 35 gaging stations ranged from 50 to 357 percent.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Roberts, J.W.

1990-01-01

Multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating flood-peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations range from 33.4% to 41.4%. Peak discharge estimates determined by log-Pearson Type III analysis using data collected through the 1987 water year are reported for 275 streamflow-gaging stations. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to divide the State into three regions and to identify a set of basin characteristics that help explain station-to- station variation in the log-Pearson estimates. Contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and storage area were identified as suitable explanatory variables. Generalized least-square procedures, which include historical flow data and account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations, spatial correlation among gaging station records, and variable lengths of station record were used to estimate the regression parameters. Weighted peak-discharge estimates computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III and regression estimates are reported for each station. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site located on the same stream. Limitations and shortcomings cited in an earlier report on the magnitude and frequency of floods in Ohio are addressed in this study. Geographic bias is no longer evident for the Maumee River basin of northwestern Ohio. No bias is found to be associated with the forested-area characteristic for the range used in the regression analysis (0.0 to 99.0%), nor is this characteristic significant in explaining peak discharges. Surface-mined area likewise is not significant in explaining peak discharges, and the regression equations are not biased when applied to basins having approximately 30% or less surface-mined area. Analyses of residuals indicate that the equations tend to overestimate flood-peak discharges for basins having approximately 30% or more surface-mined area. (USGS)

User's Manual for Program PeakFQ, Annual Flood-Frequency Analysis Using Bulletin 17B Guidelines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Kathleen M.; Kirby, William H.; Hummel, Paul R.

2006-01-01

Estimates of flood flows having given recurrence intervals or probabilities of exceedance are needed for design of hydraulic structures and floodplain management. Program PeakFQ provides estimates of instantaneous annual-maximum peak flows having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (annual-exceedance probabilities of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002, respectively). As implemented in program PeakFQ, the Pearson Type III frequency distribution is fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The parameters of the Pearson Type III frequency curve are estimated by the logarithmic sample moments (mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of skewness), with adjustments for low outliers, high outliers, historic peaks, and generalized skew. This documentation provides an overview of the computational procedures in program PeakFQ, provides a description of the program menus, and provides an example of the output from the program.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bisese, James A.

1995-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating the peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Virginia. A Pearson Type III distribution is fitted to the logarithms of the unregulated annual peak-discharge records from 363 stream-gaging stations in Virginia to estimate the peak discharge at these stations for recurrence intervals of 2 to 500 years. Peak-discharge characteristics for 284 unregulated stations are divided into eight regions based on physiographic province, and regressed on basin characteristics, including drainage area, main channel length, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, percentage of forest cover, mean annual precipitation, and maximum rainfall intensity. Regression equations for each region are computed by use of the generalized least-squares method, which accounts for spatial and temporal correlation between nearby gaging stations. This regression technique weights the significance of each station to the regional equation based on the length of records collected at each cation, the correlation between annual peak discharges among the stations, and the standard deviation of the annual peak discharge for each station.Drainage area proved to be the only significant explanatory variable in four regions, while other regions have as many as three significant variables. Standard errors of the regression equations range from 30 to 80 percent. Alternate equations using drainage area only are provided for the five regions with more than one significant explanatory variable.Methods and sample computations are provided to estimate peak discharges at gaged and engaged sites in Virginia for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, and to adjust the regression estimates for sites on gaged streams where nearby gaging-station records are available.

Mean annual runoff and peak flow estimates based on channel geometry of streams in northeastern and western Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

1983-01-01

Equations for estimating mean annual runoff and peak discharge from measurements of channel geometry were developed for western and northeastern Montana. The study area was divided into two regions for the mean annual runoff analysis, and separate multiple-regression equations were developed for each region. The active-channel width was determined to be the most important independent variable in each region. The standard error of estimate for the estimating equation using active-channel width was 61 percent in the Northeast Region and 38 percent in the West region. The study area was divided into six regions for the peak discharge analysis, and multiple regression equations relating channel geometry and basin characteristics to peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were developed for each region. The standard errors of estimate for the regression equations using only channel width as an independent variable ranged from 35 to 105 percent. The standard errors improved in four regions as basin characteristics were added to the estimating equations. (USGS)

Estimating peak-flow frequency statistics for selected gaged and ungaged sites in naturally flowing streams and rivers in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.; Skinner, Kenneth D.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2016-06-27

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Transportation Department, updated regional regression equations to estimate peak-flow statistics at ungaged sites on Idaho streams using recent streamflow (flow) data and new statistical techniques. Peak-flow statistics with 80-, 67-, 50-, 43-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities (1.25-, 1.50-, 2.00-, 2.33-, 5.00-, 10.0-, 25.0-, 50.0-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively) were estimated for 192 streamgages in Idaho and bordering States with at least 10 years of annual peak-flow record through water year 2013. The streamgages were selected from drainage basins with little or no flow diversion or regulation. The peak-flow statistics were estimated by fitting a log-Pearson type III distribution to records of annual peak flows and applying two additional statistical methods: (1) the Expected Moments Algorithm to help describe uncertainty in annual peak flows and to better represent missing and historical record; and (2) the generalized Multiple Grubbs Beck Test to screen out potentially influential low outliers and to better fit the upper end of the peak-flow distribution. Additionally, a new regional skew was estimated for the Pacific Northwest and used to weight at-station skew at most streamgages. The streamgages were grouped into six regions (numbered 1_2, 3, 4, 5, 6_8, and 7, to maintain consistency in region numbering with a previous study), and the estimated peak-flow statistics were related to basin and climatic characteristics to develop regional regression equations using a generalized least squares procedure. Four out of 24 evaluated basin and climatic characteristics were selected for use in the final regional peak-flow regression equations.Overall, the standard error of prediction for the regional peak-flow regression equations ranged from 22 to 132 percent. Among all regions, regression model fit was best for region 4 in west-central Idaho (average standard error of prediction=46.4 percent; pseudo-R2>92 percent) and region 5 in central Idaho (average standard error of prediction=30.3 percent; pseudo-R2>95 percent). Regression model fit was poor for region 7 in southern Idaho (average standard error of prediction=103 percent; pseudo-R2<78 percent) compared to other regions because few streamgages in region 7 met the criteria for inclusion in the study, and the region’s semi-arid climate and associated variability in precipitation patterns causes substantial variability in peak flows.A drainage area ratio-adjustment method, using ratio exponents estimated using generalized least-squares regression, was presented as an alternative to the regional regression equations if peak-flow estimates are desired at an ungaged site that is close to a streamgage selected for inclusion in this study. The alternative drainage area ratio-adjustment method is appropriate for use when the drainage area ratio between the ungaged and gaged sites is between 0.5 and 1.5.The updated regional peak-flow regression equations had lower total error (standard error of prediction) than all regression equations presented in a 1982 study and in four of six regions presented in 2002 and 2003 studies in Idaho. A more extensive streamgage screening process used in the current study resulted in fewer streamgages used in the current study than in the 1982, 2002, and 2003 studies. Fewer streamgages used and the selection of different explanatory variables were likely causes of increased error in some regions compared to previous studies, but overall, regional peak‑flow regression model fit was generally improved for Idaho. The revised statistical procedures and increased streamgage screening applied in the current study most likely resulted in a more accurate representation of natural peak-flow conditions.The updated, regional peak-flow regression equations will be integrated in the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program to allow users to estimate basin and climatic characteristics and peak-flow statistics at ungaged locations of interest. StreamStats estimates peak-flow statistics with quantifiable certainty only when used at sites with basin and climatic characteristics within the range of input variables used to develop the regional regression equations. Both the regional regression equations and StreamStats should be used to estimate peak-flow statistics only in naturally flowing, relatively unregulated streams without substantial local influences to flow, such as large seeps, springs, or other groundwater-surface water interactions that are not widespread or characteristic of the respective region.

Quantification of whispering gallery mode spectrum variability in application to sensing nanobiophotonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saetchnikov, Anton; Skakun, Victor; Saetchnikov, Vladimir; Tcherniavskaia, Elina; Ostendorf, Andreas

2017-10-01

An approach for the automated whispering gallery mode (WGM) signal decomposition and its parameter estimation is discussed. The algorithm is based on the peak picking and can be applied for the preprocessing of the raw signal acquired from the multiplied WGM-based biosensing chips. Quantitative estimations representing physically meaningful parameters of the external disturbing factors on the WGM spectral shape are the output values. Derived parameters can be directly applied to the further deep qualitative and quantitative interpretations of the sensed disturbing factors. The algorithm is tested on both simulated and experimental data taken from the bovine serum albumin biosensing task. The proposed solution is expected to be a useful contribution to the preprocessing phase of the complete data analysis engine and is expected to push the WGM technology toward the real-live sensing nanobiophotonics.

Relation of oxygen uptake to work rate in prepubertal healthy children - reference for VO2/W-slope and effect on cardiorespiratory fitness assessment.

PubMed

Tompuri, Tuomo; Lintu, Niina; Laitinen, Tomi; Lakka, Timo A

2017-08-09

Exercise testing by cycle ergometer allows to observe the interaction between oxygen uptake (VO 2 ) and workload (W), and VO 2 /W-slope can be used as a diagnostic tool. Respectively, peak oxygen uptake (VO 2 PEAK ) can be estimated by maximal workload. We aim to determine reference for VO 2 /W-slope among prepubertal children and define agreement between estimated and measured VO 2 PEAK . A total of 38 prepubertal children (20 girls) performed a maximal cycle ergometer test with respiratory gas analysis. VO 2 /W-slopes were computed using linear regression. Agreement analysis by Bland and Altman for estimated and measured VO 2 PEAK was carried out including limits of agreement (LA). Determinants for VO 2 /W-slopes and estimation bias were defined. VO2/W-slope was in both girls and boys ≥9·4 and did not change with exercise level, but the oxygen cost of exercise was higher among physically more active children. Estimated VO 2 PEAK had 6·4% coefficient of variation, and LA varied from 13% underestimation to 13% overestimation. Bias had a trend towards underestimation along lean mass proportional VO 2 PEAK . The primary determinant for estimation bias was VO2/W-slope (β = -0·65; P<0·001). The reference values for VO 2 /W-slope among healthy prepubertal children were similar to those published for adults and among adolescents. Estimated and measured VO 2 PEAK should not be considered to be interchangeable because of the variation in the relationship between VO 2 and W. On other hand, variation in the relationship between VO 2 and W enables that VO 2 /W-slope can be used as a diagnostic tool. © 2017 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rotational biomechanics of the elite golf swing: benchmarks for amateurs.

PubMed

Meister, David W; Ladd, Amy L; Butler, Erin E; Zhao, Betty; Rogers, Andrew P; Ray, Conrad J; Rose, Jessica

2011-08-01

The purpose of this study was to determine biomechanical factors that may influence golf swing power generation. Three-dimensional kinematics and kinetics were examined in 10 professional and 5 amateur male golfers. Upper-torso rotation, pelvic rotation, X-factor (relative hip-shoulder rotation), O-factor (pelvic obliquity), S-factor (shoulder obliquity), and normalized free moment were assessed in relation to clubhead speed at impact (CSI). Among professional golfers, results revealed that peak free moment per kilogram, peak X-factor, and peak S-factor were highly consistent, with coefficients of variation of 6.8%, 7.4%, and 8.4%, respectively. Downswing was initiated by reversal of pelvic rotation, followed by reversal of upper-torso rotation. Peak X-factor preceded peak free moment in all swings for all golfers, and occurred during initial downswing. Peak free moment per kilogram, X-factor at impact, peak X-factor, and peak upper-torso rotation were highly correlated to CSI (median correlation coefficients of 0.943, 0.943, 0.900, and 0.900, respectively). Benchmark curves revealed kinematic and kinetic temporal and spatial differences of amateurs compared with professional golfers. For amateurs, the number of factors that fell outside 1-2 standard deviations of professional means increased with handicap. This study identified biomechanical factors highly correlated to golf swing power generation and may provide a basis for strategic training and injury prevention.

Returners Exhibit Greater Jumping Performance Improvements During a Peaking Phase Compared With New Players on a Volleyball Team.

PubMed

Bazyler, Caleb D; Mizuguchi, Satoshi; Kavanaugh, Ashley A; McMahon, John J; Comfort, Paul; Stone, Michael H

2018-06-21

To determine if jumping-performance changes during a peaking phase differed among returners and new players on a female collegiate volleyball team and to determine which variables best explained the variation in performance changes. Fourteen volleyball players were divided into 2 groups-returners (n = 7) and new players (n = 7)-who completed a 5-wk peaking phase prior to conference championships. Players were tested at baseline before the preseason on measures of the vastus lateralis cross-sectional area using ultrasonography, estimated back-squat 1-repetition maximum, countermovement jump height (JH), and relative peak power on a force platform. Jumping performance, rating of perceived exertion training load, and sets played were recorded weekly during the peaking phase. There were moderate to very large (P < .01, Glass Δ = 1.74) and trivial to very large (P = .07, Δ = 1.09) differences in JH and relative peak power changes in favor of returners over new players, respectively, during the peaking phase. Irrespective of group, 7 of 14 players achieved peak JH 2 wk after the initial overreach. The number of sets played (r = .78, P < .01) and the athlete's preseason relative 1-repetition maximum (r = .54, P = .05) were the strongest correlates of JH changes during the peaking phase. Returners achieved greater improvements in jumping performance during the peaking phase compared with new players, which may be explained by the returners' greater relative maximal strength, time spent competing, and training experience. Thus, volleyball and strength coaches should consider these factors when prescribing training during a peaking phase to ensure their players are prepared for important competitions.

Joint estimation of 2D-DOA and frequency based on space-time matrix and conformal array.

PubMed

Wan, Liang-Tian; Liu, Lu-Tao; Si, Wei-Jian; Tian, Zuo-Xi

2013-01-01

Each element in the conformal array has a different pattern, which leads to the performance deterioration of the conventional high resolution direction-of-arrival (DOA) algorithms. In this paper, a joint frequency and two-dimension DOA (2D-DOA) estimation algorithm for conformal array are proposed. The delay correlation function is used to suppress noise. Both spatial and time sampling are utilized to construct the spatial-time matrix. The frequency and 2D-DOA estimation are accomplished based on parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis without spectral peak searching and parameter pairing. The proposed algorithm needs only four guiding elements with precise positions to estimate frequency and 2D-DOA. Other instrumental elements can be arranged flexibly on the surface of the carrier. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Reproducibility and Accuracy of Quantitative Myocardial Blood Flow Using 82Rb-PET: Comparison with 13N-Ammonia

PubMed Central

Fakhri, Georges El

2011-01-01

82Rb cardiac PET allows the assessment of myocardial perfusion using a column generator in clinics that lack a cyclotron. We and others have previously shown that quantitation of myocardial blood flow (MBF) and coronary flow reserve (CFR) is feasible using dynamic 82Rb PET and factor and compartment analyses. The aim of the present work was to determine the intra- and inter-observer variability of MBF estimation using 82Rb PET as well as the reproducibility of our generalized factor + compartment analyses methodology to estimate MBF and assess its accuracy by comparing, in the same subjects, 82Rb estimates of MBF to those obtained using 13N-ammonia. Methods Twenty-two subjects were included in the reproducibility and twenty subjects in the validation study. Patients were injected with 60±5mCi of 82Rb and imaged dynamically for 6 minutes at rest and during dipyridamole stress Left and right ventricular (LV+RV) time-activity curves were estimated by GFADS and used as input to a 2-compartment kinetic analysis that estimates parametric maps of myocardial tissue extraction (K1) and egress (k2), as well as LV+RV contributions (fv,rv). Results Our results show excellent reproducibility of the quantitative dynamic approach itself with coefficients of repeatability of 1.7% for estimation of MBF at rest, 1.4% for MBF at peak stress and 2.8% for CFR estimation. The inter-observer reproducibility between the four observers that participated in this study was also very good with correlation coefficients greater than 0.87 between any two given observers when estimating coronary flow reserve. The reproducibility of MBF in repeated 82Rb studies was good at rest and excellent at peak stress (r2=0.835). Furthermore, the slope of the correlation line was very close to 1 when estimating stress MBF and CFR in repeated 82Rb studies. The correlation between myocardial flow estimates obtained at rest and during peak stress in 82Rb and 13N-ammonia studies was very good at rest (r2=0.843) and stress (r2=0.761). The Bland-Altman plots show no significant presence of proportional error at rest or stress, nor a dependence of the variations on the amplitude of the myocardial blood flow at rest or stress. A small systematic overestimation of 13N-ammonia MBF was observed with 82Rb at rest (0.129 ml/g/min) and the opposite, i.e., underestimation, at stress (0.22 ml/g/min). Conclusions Our results show that absolute quantitation of myocardial bloof flow is reproducible and accurate with 82Rb dynamic cardiac PET as compared to 13N-ammonia. The reproducibility of the quantitation approach itself was very good as well as inter-observer reproducibility. PMID:19525467

Analysis and Assessment of Peak Lightning Current Probabilities at the NASA Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. L.; Vaughan, W. W.

1999-01-01

This technical memorandum presents a summary by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch at the Marshall Space Flight Center of lightning characteristics and lightning criteria for the protection of aerospace vehicles. Probability estimates are included for certain lightning strikes (peak currents of 200, 100, and 50 kA) applicable to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, during rollout, on-pad, and boost/launch phases. Results of an extensive literature search to compile information on this subject are presented in order to answer key questions posed by the Space Shuttle Program Office at the Johnson Space Center concerning peak lightning current probabilities if a vehicle is hit by a lightning cloud-to-ground stroke. Vehicle-triggered lightning probability estimates for the aforementioned peak currents are still being worked. Section 4.5, however, does provide some insight on estimating these same peaks.

Biomechanical Indices for Rupture Risk Estimation in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms.

PubMed

Leemans, Eva L; Willems, Tineke P; van der Laan, Maarten J; Slump, Cornelis H; Zeebregts, Clark J

2017-04-01

To review the use of biomechanical indices for the estimation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk, emphasizing their potential use in a clinical setting. A search of the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Compendex databases was made up to June 2015 to identify articles involving biomechanical analysis of AAA rupture risk. Outcome variables [aneurysm diameter, peak wall stress (PWS), peak wall shear stress (PWSS), wall strain, peak wall rupture index (PWRI), and wall stiffness] were compared for asymptomatic intact AAAs vs symptomatic or ruptured AAAs. For quantitative analysis of the pooled data, a random effects model was used to calculate the standard mean differences (SMDs) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the biomechanical indices. The initial database searches yielded 1894 independent articles of which 19 were included in the analysis. The PWS was significantly higher in the symptomatic/ruptured group, with a SMD of 1.11 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.26, p<0.001). Likewise, the PWRI was significantly higher in the ruptured or symptomatic group, with a SMD of 1.15 (95% CI 0.30 to 2.01, p=0.008). After adjustment for the aneurysm diameter, the PWS remained higher in the ruptured or symptomatic group, with a SMD of 0.85 (95% CI 0.46 to 1.23, p<0.001). Less is known of the wall shear stress and wall strain indices, as too few studies were available for analysis. Biomechanical indices are a promising tool in the assessment of AAA rupture risk as they incorporate several factors, including geometry, tissue properties, and patient-specific risk factors. However, clinical implementation of biomechanical AAA assessment remains a challenge owing to a lack of standardization.

Peak Measurement for Vancomycin AUC Estimation in Obese Adults Improves Precision and Lowers Bias.

PubMed

Pai, Manjunath P; Hong, Joseph; Krop, Lynne

2017-04-01

Vancomycin area under the curve (AUC) estimates may be skewed in obese adults due to weight-dependent pharmacokinetic parameters. We demonstrate that peak and trough measurements reduce bias and improve the precision of vancomycin AUC estimates in obese adults ( n = 75) and validate this in an independent cohort ( n = 31). The precision and mean percent bias of Bayesian vancomycin AUC estimates are comparable between covariate-dependent ( R 2 = 0.774, 3.55%) and covariate-independent ( R 2 = 0.804, 3.28%) models when peaks and troughs are measured but not when measurements are restricted to troughs only ( R 2 = 0.557, 15.5%). Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

WE-E-18A-03: How Accurately Can the Peak Skin Dose in Fluoroscopy Be Determined Using Indirect Dose Metrics?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, A; Pasciak, A

Purpose: Skin dosimetry is important for fluoroscopically-guided interventions, as peak skin doses (PSD) that Result in skin reactions can be reached during these procedures. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of different indirect dose estimates and to determine if PSD can be calculated within ±50% for embolization procedures. Methods: PSD were measured directly using radiochromic film for 41 consecutive embolization procedures. Indirect dose metrics from procedures were collected, including reference air kerma (RAK). Four different estimates of PSD were calculated and compared along with RAK to the measured PSD. The indirect estimates included a standard method,more » use of detailed information from the RDSR, and two simplified calculation methods. Indirect dosimetry was compared with direct measurements, including an analysis of uncertainty associated with film dosimetry. Factors affecting the accuracy of the indirect estimates were examined. Results: PSD calculated with the standard calculation method were within ±50% for all 41 procedures. This was also true for a simplified method using a single source-to-patient distance (SPD) for all calculations. RAK was within ±50% for all but one procedure. Cases for which RAK or calculated PSD exhibited large differences from the measured PSD were analyzed, and two causative factors were identified: ‘extreme’ SPD and large contributions to RAK from rotational angiography or runs acquired at large gantry angles. When calculated uncertainty limits [−12.8%, 10%] were applied to directly measured PSD, most indirect PSD estimates remained within ±50% of the measured PSD. Conclusions: Using indirect dose metrics, PSD can be determined within ±50% for embolization procedures, and usually to within ±35%. RAK can be used without modification to set notification limits and substantial radiation dose levels. These results can be extended to similar procedures, including vascular and interventional oncology. Film dosimetry is likely an unnecessary effort for these types of procedures.« less

Stabilization of kerogen thermal maturation: Evidence from geothermometry and burial history reconstruction, Niobrara Limestone, Berthoud oil field, western Denver Basin, Colorado

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, C.E.; Crysdale, B.L.

1990-05-01

The burial history of this fractured Niobrara Limestone reservoir and source rock offers a setting for studying the stabilization of thermal maturity because soon after peak temperature of approximately 100{degree}C was reached, exhumation lowered temperature to about 60-70{degree}C. Vitrinite reflectance (Rm = 0.6-0.7%) and published clay mineralogy data from the Niobrara Limestone indicate that peak paleotemperature was approximately 100{degree}C. Fluid inclusion data also indicate oil migration occurred at 100{degree}C. Burial history reconstruction indicates 100{degree}C was reached in the Niobrara Limestone only during minimum burial, which occurred at 70 Ma and 8000 ft depth. However, erosion beginning at 70 Ma andmore » continuing until 50 Ma removed over 3,000 ft of rock. This depth of erosion agrees with an Rm of 0.4% measured in surface samples of the Pierre Shale. The exhumation of the reservoir decreased temperature by about 30{degree}C to near the corrected bottom-hole temperature of 50-70{degree}C. Lopatin time-temperature index (TTI) analysis suggests the Niobrara Limestone as a source rock matured to the oil generation stage (TTI = 10) about 25 Ma, significantly later than maximum burial, and after exhumation caused cooling. The Lopatin TTI method in this case seems to overestimate the influence of heating time. If time is an important factor, thermal maturity should continue to increase after peak burial and temperature so that vitrinite reflectance will not be comparable to peak paleotemperatures estimated from geothermometers set at near-peak temperature and those estimated from burial history reconstruction. The agreement between geothermometry and the burial history reconstruction in Berthoud State 4 suggests that the influence of heating time must be small. The elapsed time available at near peak temperatures was sufficient to allow stabilization of thermal maturation in this case.« less

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression.All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application.Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis.This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Calibration of Subsurface Amplification Factors Using Surface/Borehole Strong-motion Records from the KiK-net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashida, T.; Tajima, F.

2007-12-01

The Real-time Earthquake Information System (REIS, Horiuchi et al., 2005) detects earthquakes and determines event parameters using the Hi-net (High-sensitivity seismograph network Japan) data in Japan. The system also predicts the arrival time and seismic intensity at a given site before ground motions arrive. Here, the seismic intensity is estimated based on the intensity magnitude which is derived from data of the Hi-net. As the Hi-net stations are located in the boreholes, intensity estimation on the ground surface is evaluated using a constant for subsurface amplification. But the estimated intensities based on the conventionally used amplification constants are not always in agreement with those observed at specific sites on the ground surface. The KiK-net (KIBAN Kyoshin network Japan) consists of strong motion instruments. Each station has two sets of accelerometers, one set is installed on the ground surface and the other one is co-located with a Hi-net station in the borehole. We use data recorded at the KiK-net stations to calibrate subsurface site amplification factors between the borehole and the ground surface. We selected data recorded for over 200 events during the period of 1997 to 2006 in Hiroshima prefecture and calculated the ratios of peak velocity amplitudes on the ground surface ( Asurf) to those in the borehole ( Abor). The subsurface amplification varies from station to station showing dependency on the propagation distance as well as on the incident direction of seismic waves. Results suggest that the site amplification factors shall be described as a function of distance and incident direction, and are not constants. Thus, we derived empirical amplification formulas between Asurf and the peak velocity amplitudes on the engineering bedrock ( Abed) as a function of distance in place of the conventionally used amplification constants. Here, the engineering bedrock is defined as the depth where the S- wave velocity is 600 m/s. The estimated intensities show substantial improvement in the accuracy at most stations as compared with those calculated using conventional constants. When the amplification dependence on the incident direction was accounted for, the estimated intensities somewhat improved. This calibration will help an earthquake early warning system such as REIS provide more accurate intensity estimates.

Estimation of cardiac reserve by peak power: validation and initial application of a simplified index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, G. P.; Carlier, S. G.; Fukamachi, K.; Thomas, J. D.; Marwick, T. H.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To validate a simplified estimate of peak power (SPP) against true (invasively measured) peak instantaneous power (TPP), to assess the feasibility of measuring SPP during exercise and to correlate this with functional capacity. DESIGN: Development of a simplified method of measurement and observational study. SETTING: Tertiary referral centre for cardiothoracic disease. SUBJECTS: For validation of SPP with TPP, seven normal dogs and four dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy were studied. To assess feasibility and clinical significance in humans, 40 subjects were studied (26 patients; 14 normal controls). METHODS: In the animal validation study, TPP was derived from ascending aortic pressure and flow probe, and from Doppler measurements of flow. SPP, calculated using the different flow measures, was compared with peak instantaneous power under different loading conditions. For the assessment in humans, SPP was measured at rest and during maximum exercise. Peak aortic flow was measured with transthoracic continuous wave Doppler, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures were derived from brachial sphygmomanometry. The difference between exercise and rest simplified peak power (Delta SPP) was compared with maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2)max), measured from expired gas analysis. RESULTS: SPP estimates using peak flow measures correlated well with true peak instantaneous power (r = 0.89 to 0.97), despite marked changes in systemic pressure and flow induced by manipulation of loading conditions. In the human study, VO(2)max correlated with Delta SPP (r = 0.78) better than Delta ejection fraction (r = 0.18) and Delta rate-pressure product (r = 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: The simple product of mean arterial pressure and peak aortic flow (simplified peak power, SPP) correlates with peak instantaneous power over a range of loading conditions in dogs. In humans, it can be estimated during exercise echocardiography, and correlates with maximum oxygen uptake better than ejection fraction or rate-pressure product.

SU-E-T-146: Beam Energy Spread Estimate Based On Bragg Peak Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anferov, V; Derenchuk, V; Moore, R

2015-06-15

Purpose: ProNova is installing and commissioning a two room proton therapy system in Knoxville, TN. Beam energy out of the 230MeV cyclotron was measured on Jan 24, 2015. Cyclotron beam was delivered into a Zebra multi layered IC detector calibrated in terms of penetration range in water. The analysis of the measured Bragg peak determines penetration range in water which can be subsequently converted into proton beam energy. We extended this analysis to obtain an estimate of the beam energy spread out of the cyclotron. Methods: Using Monte Carlo simulations we established the correlation between Bragg peak shape parameters (widthmore » at 50% and 80% dose levels, distal falloff) and penetration range for a monoenergetic proton beam. For large uniform field impinging on a small area detector, we observed linear dependence of each Bragg peak parameter on beam penetration range as shown in Figure A. Then we studied how this correlation changes when the shape of Bragg peak is distorted by the beam focusing conditions. As shown in Figure B, small field size or diverging beam cause Bragg peak deformation predominantly in the proximal region. The distal shape of the renormalized Bragg peaks stays nearly constant. This excludes usage of Bragg peak width parameters for energy spread estimates. Results: The measured Bragg peaks had an average distal falloff of 4.86mm, which corresponds to an effective range of 35.5cm for a monoenergetic beam. The 32.7cm measured penetration range is 2.8cm less. Passage of a 230MeV proton beam through a 2.8cm thick slab of water results in a ±0.56MeV energy spread. As a final check, we confirmed agreement between shapes of the measured Bragg peak and one generated by Monte-Carlo code for proton beam with 0.56 MeV energy spread. Conclusion: Proton beam energy spread can be estimated using Bragg peak analysis.« less

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods on Nontidal Streams in Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Dillow, Jonathan J.A.

2006-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of annual peak flows are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. This report, done in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the Delaware Geological Survey (DGS), presents methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on nontidal streams in Delaware at locations where streamgaging stations monitor streamflow continuously and at ungaged sites. Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude of floods for return frequencies ranging from 2 through 500 years. These methods are applicable to watersheds exhibiting a full range of urban development conditions. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that makes it easy to obtain flood-frequency estimates for user-selected locations on Delaware streams. Flood-frequency estimates for ungaged sites are obtained through a process known as regionalization, using statistical regression analysis, where information determined for a group of streamgaging stations within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the region. One hundred and sixteen streamgaging stations in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of non-regulated annual peak-flow data available were used in the regional analysis. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates with regional estimates of skew and flood-frequency magnitudes. Example flood-frequency estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for: (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged locations, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Regional regression equations applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces of Delaware are presented. The equations incorporate drainage area, forest cover, impervious area, basin storage, housing density, soil type A, and mean basin slope as explanatory variables, and have average standard errors of prediction ranging from 28 to 72 percent. Additional regression equations that incorporate drainage area and housing density as explanatory variables are presented for use in defining the effects of urbanization on peak-flow estimates throughout Delaware for the 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals, along with suggestions for their appropriate use in predicting development-affected peak flows. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are also discussed, including: (1) the availability and description of more than 30 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites, with respect to their relations with maximum 24-hour precipitation and housing density, and their use in the regional analysis; (3) calculation of the 90-percent confidence interval associated with peak-flow estimates from the regional regression equations; and (4) a comparison of flood-frequency estimates at gages used in a previous study, highlighting the effects of various improved analytical techniques.

Mean annual runoff and peak flow estimates based on channel geometry of streams in southeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1983-01-01

Equations using channel-geometry measurements were developed for estimating mean runoff and peak flows of ungaged streams in southeastern Montana. Two separate sets of esitmating equations were developed for determining mean annual runoff: one for perennial streams and one for ephemeral and intermittent streams. Data from 29 gaged sites on perennial streams and 21 gaged sites on ephemeral and intermittent streams were used in these analyses. Data from 78 gaged sites were used in the peak-flow analyses. Southeastern Montana was divided into three regions and separate multiple-regression equations for each region were developed that relate channel dimensions to peak discharge having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Channel-geometery relations were developed using measurements of the active-channel width and bankfull width. Active-channel width and bankfull width were the most significant channel features for estimating mean annual runoff for al types of streams. Use of this method requires that onsite measurements be made of channel width. The standard error of estimate for predicting mean annual runoff ranged from about 38 to 79 percent. The standard error of estimate relating active-channel width or bankfull width to peak flow ranged from about 37 to 115 percent. (USGS)

LuciPHOr: Algorithm for Phosphorylation Site Localization with False Localization Rate Estimation Using Modified Target-Decoy Approach*

PubMed Central

Fermin, Damian; Walmsley, Scott J.; Gingras, Anne-Claude; Choi, Hyungwon; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I.

2013-01-01

The localization of phosphorylation sites in peptide sequences is a challenging problem in large-scale phosphoproteomics analysis. The intense neutral loss peaks and the coexistence of multiple serine/threonine and/or tyrosine residues are limiting factors for objectively scoring site patterns across thousands of peptides. Various computational approaches for phosphorylation site localization have been proposed, including Ascore, Mascot Delta score, and ProteinProspector, yet few address direct estimation of the false localization rate (FLR) in each experiment. Here we propose LuciPHOr, a modified target-decoy-based approach that uses mass accuracy and peak intensities for site localization scoring and FLR estimation. Accurate estimation of the FLR is a difficult task at the individual-site level because the degree of uncertainty in localization varies significantly across different peptides. LuciPHOr carries out simultaneous localization on all candidate sites in each peptide and estimates the FLR based on the target-decoy framework, where decoy phosphopeptides generated by placing artificial phosphorylation(s) on non-candidate residues compete with the non-decoy phosphopeptides. LuciPHOr also reports approximate site-level confidence scores for all candidate sites as a means to localize additional sites from multiphosphorylated peptides in which localization can be partially achieved. Unlike the existing tools, LuciPHOr is compatible with any search engine output processed through the Trans-Proteomic Pipeline. We evaluated the performance of LuciPHOr in terms of the sensitivity and accuracy of FLR estimates using two synthetic phosphopeptide libraries and a phosphoproteomic dataset generated from complex mouse brain samples. PMID:23918812

Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

2013-10-01

In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

Uncertainty of the peak flow reconstruction of the 1907 flood in the Ebro River in Xerta (NE Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Bellet, Josep Lluís; Castelltort, Xavier; Balasch, J. Carles; Tuset, Jordi

2017-02-01

There is no clear, unified and accepted method to estimate the uncertainty of hydraulic modelling results. In historical floods reconstruction, due to the lower precision of input data, the magnitude of this uncertainty could reach a high value. With the objectives of giving an estimate of the peak flow error of a typical historical flood reconstruction with the model HEC-RAS and of providing a quick, simple uncertainty assessment that an end user could easily apply, the uncertainty of the reconstructed peak flow of a major flood in the Ebro River (NE Iberian Peninsula) was calculated with a set of local sensitivity analyses on six input variables. The peak flow total error was estimated at ±31% and water height was found to be the most influential variable on peak flow, followed by Manning's n. However, the latter, due to its large uncertainty, was the greatest contributor to peak flow total error. Besides, the HEC-RAS resulting peak flow was compared to the ones obtained with the 2D model Iber and with Manning's equation; all three methods gave similar peak flows. Manning's equation gave almost the same result than HEC-RAS. The main conclusion is that, to ensure the lowest peak flow error, the reliability and precision of the flood mark should be thoroughly assessed.

Flooding and sedimentation in Wheeling Creek basin, Belmont County, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolva, J.R.; Koltun, G.F.

1987-01-01

The Wheeling Creek basin, which is located primarily in Belmont County, Ohio, experienced three damaging floods and four less severe floods during the 29-month period from February 1979 through June 1981. Residents of the basin became concerned about factors that could have affected the severity and frequency of out-of-bank floods. In response to those concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, undertook a study to estimate peak discharges and recurrence intervals for the seven floods of interest, provide information on current and historical mining-related stream-channel fill or scour, and examine storm-period subbasin contributions to the sediment load in Wheeling Creek. Streamflow data for adjacent basins, rainfall data, and, in two cases, flood-profile data were used in conjunction with streamflow data subsequently collected on Wheeling Creek to provide estimates of peak discharge for the seven floods that occurred from February 1979 through June 1981. Estimates of recurrence intervals were assigned to the Peak discharges on the basin of regional regression equations that relate selected basin characteristics to peak discharge with fixed recurrence intervals. These estimates indicate that a statistically unusual number of floods with recurrence intervals of 2 years or more occurred within that time period. Three cross sections located on Wheeling Creek and four located on tributaries were established and surveyed quarterly for approximately 2 years. No evidence of appreciable stream-channel fill or scour was observed at any of the cross sections, although minor profile changes were apparent at some locations. Attempts were made to obtain historical cross-section profile data for comparison with current cross-section profiles; however, no usable data were found. Excavations of stream-bottom materials were made near the three main-stem cross-section locations and near the mouth of Jug Run. The bottom materials were examined for evidence of recently deposited sediments of mining-related origin. The only evidence of appreciable mining-related sediment deposition was found at Jug Run, and, to a lesser extent, at one main-stem site.

The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The role of demographic factors, climatic conditions, school cycles, and connectivity patterns in shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza is not clearly understood. Here we analyzed the spatial, age and temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile, a southern hemisphere country covering a long and narrow strip comprising latitudes 17°S to 56°S. Methods We analyzed the dissemination patterns of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic across 15 regions of Chile based on daily hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory disease and laboratory confirmed A/H1N1 influenza infection from 01-May to 31-December, 2009. We explored the association between timing of pandemic onset and peak pandemic activity and several geographical and demographic indicators, school vacations, climatic factors, and international passengers. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the exponential pandemic phase by date of symptoms onset, estimated using maximum likelihood methods. Results While earlier pandemic onset was associated with larger population size, there was no association with connectivity, demographic, school or climatic factors. In contrast, there was a latitudinal gradient in peak pandemic timing, representing a 16-39-day lag in disease activity from the southern regions relative to the northernmost region (P < 0.001). Geographical differences in latitude of Chilean regions, maximum temperature and specific humidity explained 68.5% of the variability in peak timing (P = 0.01). In addition, there was a decreasing gradient in reproduction number from south to north Chile (P < 0.0001). The regional mean R estimates were 1.6-2.0, 1.3-1.5, and 1.2-1.3 for southern, central and northern regions, respectively, which were not affected by the winter vacation period. Conclusions There was a lag in the period of most intense 2009 pandemic influenza activity following a South to North traveling pattern across regions of Chile, significantly associated with geographical differences in minimum temperature and specific humidity. The latitudinal gradient in timing of pandemic activity was accompanied by a gradient in reproduction number (P < 0.0001). Intensified surveillance strategies in colder and drier southern regions could lead to earlier detection of pandemic influenza viruses and improved control outcomes. PMID:23148597

Accurate prediction of cardiorespiratory fitness using cycle ergometry in minimally disabled persons with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Motl, Robert W; Fernhall, Bo

2012-03-01

To examine the accuracy of predicting peak oxygen consumption (VO(2peak)) primarily from peak work rate (WR(peak)) recorded during a maximal, incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer among persons with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who had minimal disability. Cross-sectional study. Clinical research laboratory. Women with RRMS (n=32) and sex-, age-, height-, and weight-matched healthy controls (n=16) completed an incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer to volitional termination. Not applicable. Measured and predicted VO(2peak) and WR(peak). There were strong, statistically significant associations between measured and predicted VO(2peak) in the overall sample (R(2)=.89, standard error of the estimate=127.4 mL/min) and subsamples with (R(2)=.89, standard error of the estimate=131.3 mL/min) and without (R(2)=.85, standard error of the estimate=126.8 mL/min) multiple sclerosis (MS) based on the linear regression analyses. Based on the 95% confidence limits for worst-case errors, the equation predicted VO(2peak) within 10% of its true value in 95 of every 100 subjects with MS. Peak VO(2) can be accurately predicted in persons with RRMS who have minimal disability as it is in controls by using established equations and WR(peak) recorded from a maximal, incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Peak-flow characteristics of Wyoming streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kirk A.

2003-01-01

Peak-flow characteristics for unregulated streams in Wyoming are described in this report. Frequency relations for annual peak flows through water year 2000 at 364 streamflow-gaging stations in and near Wyoming were evaluated and revised or updated as needed. Analyses of historical floods, temporal trends, and generalized skew were included in the evaluation. Physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each gaging station using a geographic information system. Gaging stations with similar peak-flow and basin characteristics were grouped into six hydrologic regions. Regional statistical relations between peak-flow and basin characteristics were explored using multiple-regression techniques. Generalized least squares regression equations for estimating magnitudes of annual peak flows with selected recurrence intervals from 1.5 to 500 years were developed for each region. Average standard errors of estimate range from 34 to 131 percent. Average standard errors of prediction range from 35 to 135 percent. Several statistics for evaluating and comparing the errors in these estimates are described. Limitations of the equations are described. Methods for applying the regional equations for various circumstances are listed and examples are given.

Biomechanical Effects of an Injury Prevention Program in Preadolescent Female Soccer Athletes

PubMed Central

Thompson, Julie A.; Tran, Andrew A.; Gatewood, Corey T.; Shultz, Rebecca; Silder, Amy; Delp, Scott L.; Dragoo, Jason L.

2017-01-01

Background Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are common, and children as young as 10 years of age exhibit movement patterns associated with an ACL injury risk. Prevention programs have been shown to reduce injury rates, but the mechanisms behind these programs are largely unknown. Few studies have investigated biomechanical changes after injury prevention programs in children. Purpose/Hypothesis To investigate the effects of the F-MARC 11+ injury prevention warm-up program on changes to biomechanical risk factors for an ACL injury in preadolescent female soccer players. We hypothesized that the primary ACL injury risk factor of peak knee valgus moment would improve after training. In addition, we explored other kinematic and kinetic variables associated with ACL injuries. Study Design Controlled laboratory study. Methods A total of 51 female athletes aged 10 to 12 years were recruited from soccer clubs and were placed into an intervention group (n = 28; mean [±SD] age, 11.8 ± 0.8 years) and a control group (n = 23; mean age, 11.2 ± 0.6 years). The intervention group participated in 15 in-season sessions of the F-MARC 11+ program (2 times/wk). Pre- and postseason motion capture data were collected during preplanned cutting, unanticipated cutting, double-leg jump, and single-leg jump tasks. Lower extremity joint angles and moments were estimated using OpenSim, a biomechanical modeling system. Results Athletes in the intervention group reduced their peak knee valgus moment compared with the control group during the double-leg jump (mean [±standard error of the mean] pre- to posttest change, −0.57 ± 0.27 %BW×HT vs 0.25 ± 0.25 %BW×HT, respectively; P = .034). No significant differences in the change in peak knee valgus moment were found between the groups for any other activity; however, the intervention group displayed a significant pre- to posttest increase in peak knee valgus moment during unanticipated cutting (P = .044). Additional analyses revealed an improvement in peak ankle eversion moment after training during preplanned cutting (P = .015), unanticipated cutting (P = .004), and the double-leg jump (P = .016) compared with the control group. Other secondary risk factors did not significantly improve after training, although the peak knee valgus angle improved in the control group compared with the intervention group during unanticipated cutting (P = .018). Conclusion The F-MARC 11+ program may be effective in improving some risk factors for an ACL injury during a double-leg jump in preadolescent athletes, most notably by reducing peak knee valgus moment. Clinical Relevance This study provides motivation for enhancing injury prevention programs to produce improvement in other ACL risk factors, particularly during cutting and single-leg tasks. PMID:27793803

Biomechanical Effects of an Injury Prevention Program in Preadolescent Female Soccer Athletes.

PubMed

Thompson, Julie A; Tran, Andrew A; Gatewood, Corey T; Shultz, Rebecca; Silder, Amy; Delp, Scott L; Dragoo, Jason L

2017-02-01

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are common, and children as young as 10 years of age exhibit movement patterns associated with an ACL injury risk. Prevention programs have been shown to reduce injury rates, but the mechanisms behind these programs are largely unknown. Few studies have investigated biomechanical changes after injury prevention programs in children. Purpose/Hypothesis: To investigate the effects of the F-MARC 11+ injury prevention warm-up program on changes to biomechanical risk factors for an ACL injury in preadolescent female soccer players. We hypothesized that the primary ACL injury risk factor of peak knee valgus moment would improve after training. In addition, we explored other kinematic and kinetic variables associated with ACL injuries. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 51 female athletes aged 10 to 12 years were recruited from soccer clubs and were placed into an intervention group (n = 28; mean [±SD] age, 11.8 ± 0.8 years) and a control group (n = 23; mean age, 11.2 ± 0.6 years). The intervention group participated in 15 in-season sessions of the F-MARC 11+ program (2 times/wk). Pre- and postseason motion capture data were collected during preplanned cutting, unanticipated cutting, double-leg jump, and single-leg jump tasks. Lower extremity joint angles and moments were estimated using OpenSim, a biomechanical modeling system. Athletes in the intervention group reduced their peak knee valgus moment compared with the control group during the double-leg jump (mean [±standard error of the mean] pre- to posttest change, -0.57 ± 0.27 %BW×HT vs 0.25 ± 0.25 %BW×HT, respectively; P = .034). No significant differences in the change in peak knee valgus moment were found between the groups for any other activity; however, the intervention group displayed a significant pre- to posttest increase in peak knee valgus moment during unanticipated cutting ( P = .044). Additional analyses revealed an improvement in peak ankle eversion moment after training during preplanned cutting ( P = .015), unanticipated cutting ( P = .004), and the double-leg jump ( P = .016) compared with the control group. Other secondary risk factors did not significantly improve after training, although the peak knee valgus angle improved in the control group compared with the intervention group during unanticipated cutting ( P = .018). The F-MARC 11+ program may be effective in improving some risk factors for an ACL injury during a double-leg jump in preadolescent athletes, most notably by reducing peak knee valgus moment. This study provides motivation for enhancing injury prevention programs to produce improvement in other ACL risk factors, particularly during cutting and single-leg tasks.

Alternative Regression Equations for Estimation of Annual Peak-Streamflow Frequency for Undeveloped Watersheds in Texas using PRESS Minimization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Thompson, David B.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, investigated a refinement of the regional regression method and developed alternative equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. A common model for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency is based on the regional regression method. The current (2008) regional regression equations for 11 regions of Texas are based on log10 transformations of all regression variables (drainage area, main-channel slope, and watershed shape). Exclusive use of log10-transformation does not fully linearize the relations between the variables. As a result, some systematic bias remains in the current equations. The bias results in overestimation of peak streamflow for both the smallest and largest watersheds. The bias increases with increasing recurrence interval. The primary source of the bias is the discernible curvilinear relation in log10 space between peak streamflow and drainage area. Bias is demonstrated by selected residual plots with superimposed LOWESS trend lines. To address the bias, a statistical framework based on minimization of the PRESS statistic through power transformation of drainage area is described and implemented, and the resulting regression equations are reported. Compared to log10-exclusive equations, the equations derived from PRESS minimization have PRESS statistics and residual standard errors less than the log10 exclusive equations. Selected residual plots for the PRESS-minimized equations are presented to demonstrate that systematic bias in regional regression equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation in Texas can be reduced. Because the overall error is similar to the error associated with previous equations and because the bias is reduced, the PRESS-minimized equations reported here provide alternative equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation.

A study of the physics and chemistry of TMC-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pratap, P.; Dickens, J. E.; Snell, R. L.; Miralles, M. P.; Bergin, E. A.; Irvine, W. M.; Schloerb, F. P.

1997-01-01

We present a comprehensive study of the physical and chemical conditions along the TMC-1 ridge. Temperatures were estimated from observations of CH3CCH, NH3, and CO. Densities were obtained from a multitransition study of HC3N. The values of the density and temperature allow column densities for 13 molecular species to be estimated from statistical equilibrium calculations, using observations of rarer isotopomers where possible, to minimize opacity effects. The most striking abundance variations relative to HCO+ along the ridge were seen for HC3N, CH3CCH, and SO, while smaller variations were seen in CS, C2H, and HCN. On the other hand, the NH3, HNC, and N2H+ abundances relative to HCO+ were determined to be constant, indicating that the so-called NH3 peak in TMC-1 is probably a peak in the ammonia column density rather than a relative abundance peak. In contrast, the well-studied cyanopolyyne peak is most likely due to an enhancement in the abundance of long-chain carbon species. Comparisons of the derived abundances to the results of time-dependent chemical models show good overall agreement for chemical timescales around 10(5) yr. We find that the observed abundance gradients can be explained either by a small variation in the chemical timescale from 1.2 x 10(5) to 1.8 x 10(5) yr or by a factor of 2 change in the density along the ridge. Alternatively, a variation in the C/O ratio from 0.4 to 0.5 along the ridge produces an abundance gradient similar to that observed.

Floods of May and June 2004 in Central and Eastern Ohio: FEMA Disaster Declaration 1519

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebner, Andrew D.; Straub, David E.; Lageman, Jonathan D.

2008-01-01

Several severe thunderstorms that passed through Ohio between May 17 and June 17, 2004, produced large amounts of rain in an already wet central and eastern Ohio, resulting in flooding in this region from May 18 to June 21, 2004. Record peak streamflow occurred at three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages. Damages caused by the flooding resulting from these storms were severe enough that 25 counties in central and eastern Ohio were declared Federal disaster areas. In all, there were two storm- or flood-related deaths, 3,529 private structures damaged or destroyed, and an estimated $43 million in damages. This report describes the meteorological factors that resulted in severe flooding in central and eastern Ohio between May 18 and June 21, 2004, and addresses the damages caused by the storms and flooding. Peak-stage, peak-streamflow, and recurrence-interval data are reported for selected USGS streamgages. Flood profiles determined by the USGS are presented for selected streams.

Floods of December 2004 and January 2005 in Ohio: FEMA Disaster Declaration 1580

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebner, Andrew D.; Straub, David E.; Lageman, Jonathan D.

2008-01-01

A large snowstorm at the end of December 2004 that left more than 20 inches of snow in some areas of Ohio, followed by unseasonably warm temperatures in early January 2005, caused snowmelt to begin filling river channels. Widespread rain showers during January 2005 combined with this snowmelt to cause flooding throughout Ohio and mudslides in some areas. Record peak streamflows occurred at nine U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages. Damages caused by the snowstorms, flooding, and mudslides were severe enough for 62 counties in Ohio to be declared Federal disaster areas. In all, approximately 3,664 private structures were damaged or destroyed, and an estimated $238 million in damages occurred. This report describes the meteorological factors that resulted in severe flooding throughout Ohio between December 22, 2004, and February 1, 2005, and examines the damages caused by the storms and flooding. Peak-stage, peak-streamflow, and recurrence-interval data are reported for selected USGS streamgages. Flood profiles determined by the USGS are presented for selected streams.

A first European scale multimedia fate modelling of BDE-209 from 1970 to 2020.

PubMed

Earnshaw, Mark R; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andy J

2015-01-01

The European Variant Berkeley Trent (EVn-BETR) multimedia fugacity model is used to test the validity of previously derived emission estimates and predict environmental concentrations of the main decabromodiphenyl ether congener, BDE-209. The results are presented here and compared with measured environmental data from the literature. Future multimedia concentration trends are predicted using three emission scenarios (Low, Realistic and High) in the dynamic unsteady state mode covering the period 1970-2020. The spatial and temporal distributions of emissions are evaluated. It is predicted that BDE-209 atmospheric concentrations peaked in 2004 and will decline to negligible levels by 2025. Freshwater concentrations should have peaked in 2011, one year after the emissions peak with sediment concentrations peaking in 2013. Predicted atmospheric concentrations are in good agreement with measured data for the Realistic (best estimate of emissions) and High (worst case scenario) emission scenarios. The Low emission scenario consistently underestimates measured data. The German unilateral ban on the use of DecaBDE in the textile industry is simulated in an additional scenario, the effects of which are mainly observed within Germany with only a small effect on the surrounding areas. Overall, the EVn-BTER model predicts atmospheric concentrations reasonably well, within a factor of 5 and 1.2 for the Realistic and High emission scenarios respectively, providing partial validation for the original emission estimate. Total mean MEC:PEC shows the High emission scenario predicts the best fit between air, freshwater and sediment data. An alternative spatial distribution of emissions is tested, based on higher consumption in EBFRIP member states, resulting in improved agreement between MECs and PECs in comparison with the Uniform spatial distribution based on population density. Despite good agreement between modelled and measured point data, more long-term monitoring datasets are needed to compare predicted trends in concentration to determine the rate of change of POPs within the environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hawaii StreamStats; a web application for defining drainage-basin characteristics and estimating peak-streamflow statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosa, Sarah N.; Oki, Delwyn S.

2010-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are necessary for the safe and efficient design of roads, bridges, water-conveyance structures, and flood-control projects and for the management of flood plains and flood-prone areas. StreamStats provides a simple, fast, and reproducible method to define drainage-basin characteristics and estimate the frequency and magnitude of peak discharges in Hawaii?s streams using recently developed regional regression equations. StreamStats allows the user to estimate the magnitude of floods for streams where data from stream-gaging stations do not exist. Existing estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges in Hawaii can be improved with continued operation of existing stream-gaging stations and installation of additional gaging stations for areas where limited stream-gaging data are available.

Seismic fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems including the impact of differential ground subsidence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pineda Porras, Omar Andrey; Ordaz, Mario

2009-01-01

Though Differential Ground Subsidence (DGS) impacts the seismic response of segmented buried pipelines augmenting their vulnerability, fragility formulations to estimate repair rates under such condition are not available in the literature. Physical models to estimate pipeline seismic damage considering other cases of permanent ground subsidence (e.g. faulting, tectonic uplift, liquefaction, and landslides) have been extensively reported, not being the case of DGS. The refinement of the study of two important phenomena in Mexico City - the 1985 Michoacan earthquake scenario and the sinking of the city due to ground subsidence - has contributed to the analysis of the interrelation ofmore » pipeline damage, ground motion intensity, and DGS; from the analysis of the 48-inch pipeline network of the Mexico City's Water System, fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems for two DGS levels are proposed. The novel parameter PGV{sup 2}/PGA, being PGV peak ground velocity and PGA peak ground acceleration, has been used as seismic parameter in these formulations, since it has shown better correlation to pipeline damage than PGV alone according to previous studies. By comparing the proposed fragilities, it is concluded that a change in the DGS level (from Low-Medium to High) could increase the pipeline repair rates (number of repairs per kilometer) by factors ranging from 1.3 to 2.0; being the higher the seismic intensity the lower the factor.« less

An Evidence Synthesis Approach to Estimating the Proportion of Influenza Among Influenza-like Illness Patients.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; van Boven, Michiel; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-07-01

Estimation of the national-level incidence of seasonal influenza is notoriously challenging. Surveillance of influenza-like illness is carried out in many countries using a variety of data sources, and several methods have been developed to estimate influenza incidence. Our aim was to obtain maximally informed estimates of the proportion of influenza-like illness that is true influenza using all available data. We combined data on weekly general practice sentinel surveillance consultation rates for influenza-like illness, virologic testing of sampled patients with influenza-like illness, and positive laboratory tests for influenza and other pathogens, applying Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of influenza-like illness as a test for influenza virus infection. We estimated the weekly number of influenza-like illness consultations attributable to influenza for nine influenza seasons, and for four age groups. The estimated PPV for influenza in influenza-like illness patients was highest in the weeks surrounding seasonal peaks in influenza-like illness rates, dropping to near zero in between-peak periods. Overall, 14.1% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 13.5%, 14.8%) of influenza-like illness consultations were attributed to influenza infection; the estimated PPV was 50% (95% CrI: 48%, 53%) for the peak weeks and 5.8% during the summer periods. The model quantifies the correspondence between influenza-like illness consultations and influenza at a weekly granularity. Even during peak periods, a substantial proportion of influenza-like illness-61%-was not attributed to influenza. The much lower proportion of influenza outside the peak periods reflects the greater circulation of other respiratory pathogens relative to influenza.

Flood-Frequency Estimates for Streams on Kaua`i, O`ahu, Moloka`i, Maui, and Hawai`i, State of Hawai`i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.; Rosa, Sarah N.; Yeung, Chiu W.

2010-01-01

This study provides an updated analysis of the magnitude and frequency of peak stream discharges in Hawai`i. Annual peak-discharge data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during and before water year 2008 (ending September 30, 2008) at stream-gaging stations were analyzed. The existing generalized-skew value for the State of Hawai`i was retained, although three methods were used to evaluate whether an update was needed. Regional regression equations were developed for peak discharges with 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated streams (those for which peak discharges are not affected to a large extent by upstream reservoirs, dams, diversions, or other structures) in areas with less than 20 percent combined medium- and high-intensity development on Kaua`i, O`ahu, Moloka`i, Maui, and Hawai`i. The generalized-least-squares (GLS) regression equations relate peak stream discharge to quantified basin characteristics (for example, drainage-basin area and mean annual rainfall) that were determined using geographic information system (GIS) methods. Each of the islands of Kaua`i,O`ahu, Moloka`i, Maui, and Hawai`i was divided into two regions, generally corresponding to a wet region and a dry region. Unique peak-discharge regression equations were developed for each region. The regression equations developed for this study have standard errors of prediction ranging from 16 to 620 percent. Standard errors of prediction are greatest for regression equations developed for leeward Moloka`i and southern Hawai`i. In general, estimated 100-year peak discharges from this study are lower than those from previous studies, which may reflect the longer periods of record used in this study. Each regression equation is valid within the range of values of the explanatory variables used to develop the equation. The regression equations were developed using peak-discharge data from streams that are mainly unregulated, and they should not be used to estimate peak discharges in regulated streams. Use of a regression equation beyond its limits will produce peak-discharge estimates with unknown error and should therefore be avoided. Improved estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges in Hawai`i will require continued operation of existing stream-gaging stations and operation of additional gaging stations for areas such as Moloka`i and Hawai`i, where limited stream-gaging data are available.

Estimated Magnitudes and Recurrence Intervals of Peak Flows on the Mousam and Little Ossipee Rivers for the Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Stewart, Gregory J.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Large amounts of rain fell on southern Maine from the afternoon of April 15, 2007, to the afternoon of April 16, 2007, causing substantial damage to houses, roads, and culverts. This report provides an estimate of the peak flows on two rivers in southern Maine--the Mousam River and the Little Ossipee River--because of their severe flooding. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 9,230 ft3/s at the Mousam River near West Kennebunk had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 25 years to greater than 500 years. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 8,220 ft3/s at the Little Ossipee River near South Limington had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 50 years to greater than 500 years.

Site response in the eastern United States: A comparison of Vs30 measurements with estimates from horizontal:vertical spectral ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Stephenson, William J.; Odum, Jackson K.; Williams, Robert; Gee, Lind

2014-01-01

Earthquake damage is often increased due to local ground-motion amplification caused by soft soils, thick basin sediments, topographic effects, and liquefaction. A critical factor contributing to the assessment of seismic hazard is detailed information on local site response. In order to address and quantify the site response at seismograph stations in the eastern United States, we investigate the regional spatial variation of horizontal:vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) using ambient noise recorded at permanent regional and national network stations as well as temporary seismic stations deployed in order to record aftershocks of the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake. We compare the HVSR peak frequency to surface measurements of the shear-wave seismic velocity to 30 m depth (Vs30) at 21 seismograph stations in the eastern United States and find that HVSR peak frequency increases with increasing Vs30. We use this relationship to estimate the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program soil class at 218 ANSS (Advanced National Seismic System), GSN (Global Seismographic Network), and RSN (Regional Seismograph Networks) locations in the eastern United States, and suggest that this seismic station–based HVSR proxy could potentially be used to calibrate other site response characterization methods commonly used to estimate shaking hazard.

An adaptive model for vanadium redox flow battery and its application for online peak power estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Meng, Shujuan; Tseng, King Jet; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Soong, Boon Hee; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2017-03-01

An accurate battery model is the prerequisite for reliable state estimate of vanadium redox battery (VRB). As the battery model parameters are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging, the common methods where model parameters are empirical or prescribed offline lacks accuracy and robustness. To address this issue, this paper proposes to use an online adaptive battery model to reproduce the VRB dynamics accurately. The model parameters are online identified with both the recursive least squares (RLS) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). Performance comparison shows that the RLS is superior with respect to the modeling accuracy, convergence property, and computational complexity. Based on the online identified battery model, an adaptive peak power estimator which incorporates the constraints of voltage limit, SOC limit and design limit of current is proposed to fully exploit the potential of the VRB. Experiments are conducted on a lab-scale VRB system and the proposed peak power estimator is verified with a specifically designed "two-step verification" method. It is shown that different constraints dominate the allowable peak power at different stages of cycling. The influence of prediction time horizon selection on the peak power is also analyzed.

Large Footprint LiDAR Data Processing for Ground Detection and Biomass Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Wei

Ground detection in large footprint waveform Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data is important in calculating and estimating downstream products, especially in forestry applications. For example, tree heights are calculated as the difference between the ground peak and first returned signal in a waveform. Forest attributes, such as aboveground biomass, are estimated based on the tree heights. This dissertation investigated new metrics and algorithms for estimating aboveground biomass and extracting ground peak location in large footprint waveform LiDAR data. In the first manuscript, an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm, named Filtering and Clustering Algorithm (FICA), was developed based on a set of multiscale second derivative filters for automatically detecting the ground peak in an waveform from Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor. Compared to existing ground peak identification algorithms, FICA was tested in different land cover type plots and showed improved accuracy in ground detections of the vegetation plots and similar accuracy in developed area plots. Also, FICA adopted a peak identification strategy rather than following a curve-fitting process, and therefore, exhibited improved efficiency. In the second manuscript, an algorithm was developed specifically for shrub waveforms. The algorithm only partially fitted the shrub canopy reflection and detected the ground peak by investigating the residual signal, which was generated by deducting a Gaussian fitting function from the raw waveform. After the deduction, the overlapping ground peak was identified as the local maximum of the residual signal. In addition, an applicability model was built for determining waveforms where the proposed PCF algorithm should be applied. In the third manuscript, a new set of metrics was developed to increase accuracy in biomass estimation models. The metrics were based on the results of Gaussian decomposition. They incorporated both waveform intensity represented by the area covered by a Gaussian function and its associated heights, which was the centroid of the Gaussian function. By considering signal reflection of different vegetation layers, the developed metrics obtained better estimation accuracy in aboveground biomass when compared to existing metrics. In addition, the new developed metrics showed strong correlation with other forest structural attributes, such as mean Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) and stem density. In sum, the dissertation investigated the various techniques for large footprint waveform LiDAR processing for detecting the ground peak and estimating biomass. The novel techniques developed in this dissertation showed better performance than existing methods or metrics.

Aeroheating Environments for a Mars Smart Lander

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edquist, Karl T.; Liechty, Derek S.; Hollis, Brian R.; Alter, Stephen J.; Loomis, Mark P.

2002-01-01

A proposed Mars Smart Lander is designed to reach the surface via lifting-body atmospheric entry (alpha = 16 deg) to within 10 km of the target site. CFD (computational fluid dynamics) predictions of the forebody aeroheating environments are given for a direct entry from a 2005 launch. The solutions were obtained using an 8-species gas in thermal and chemical nonequilibrium with a radiative-equilibrium wall temperature boundary condition. Select wind tunnel data are presented from tests at NASA Langley Research Center. Turbulence effects are included to account for both smooth body transition and turbulence due to heatshield penetrations. Natural transition is based on a momentum-thickness Reynolds number value of 200. The effects of heatshield penetrations on turbulence are estimated from wind tunnel tests of various cavity sizes and locations. Both natural transition and heatshield penetrations are predicted to cause turbulence prior to the nominal trajectory peak heating time. Laminar and turbulent CFD predictions along the trajectory are used to estimate heat rates and loads. The predicted peak turbulent heat rate of 63 W/sq cm on the heatshield leeward flank is 70% higher than the laminar peak. The maximum integrated heat load for a fully turbulent heat pulse is 38% higher than the laminar load on the heatshield nose. The predicted aeroheating environments with uncertainty factors will be used to design a thermal protection system.

A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; O'Connor, J. E.; Costa, J.E.; ,

1997-01-01

We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V.D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether < ??? 1 or < ??? 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.We analyze a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?????1 or ?????1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

Intrinsic Correlations for Flaring Blazars Detected by Fermi

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, J. H.; Xiao, H. B.; Lin, C.

2017-02-01

Blazars are an extreme subclass of active galactic nuclei. Their rapid variability, luminous brightness, superluminal motion, and high and variable polarization are probably due to a beaming effect. However, this beaming factor (or Doppler factor) is very difficult to measure. Currently, a good way to estimate it is to use the timescale of their radio flares. In this Letter, we use multiwavelength data and Doppler factors reported in the literature for a sample of 86 flaring blazars detected by Fermi to compute their intrinsic multiwavelength data and intrinsic spectral energy distributions and investigate the correlations among observed and intrinsic data.more » Quite interestingly, intrinsic data show a positive correlation between luminosity and peak frequency, in contrast with the behavior of observed data, and a tighter correlation between γ -ray luminosity and the lower-energy ones. For flaring blazars detected by Fermi , we conclude that (1) observed emissions are strongly beamed; (2) the anti-correlation between luminosity and peak frequency from the observed data is an apparent result, the correlation between intrinsic data being positive; and (3) intrinsic γ -ray luminosity is strongly correlated with other intrinsic luminosities.« less

A re-evaluation of thermal expansion measurements of metallic liquids and glasses from x-ray scattering experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, A. K.; Kelton, K. F.

2018-05-01

Previous studies reported a number of anomalies when estimates of linear thermal expansion coefficients of metallic liquids and glasses from x-ray scattering experiments were compared with direct measurements of volume/length changes with temperature. In most cases, the first peak of the pair correlation function showed a contraction, while the structure factor showed an expansion, but both at rates much different from those expected from the direct volume measurements. In addition, the relationship between atomic volume and the characteristic lengths obtained from the structure factor from scattering experiments was found to have a fractional exponent instead of one equal to three, as expected from the Ehrenfest relation. This has led to the speculation that the atomic packing in liquids and glasses follow a fractal behavior. These issues are revisited in this study using more in-depth analysis of recent higher resolution data and some new ideas suggested in the literature. The main conclusion is that for metallic alloys, at least to a large extent, most of these anomalies arise from complicated interplays of the temperature dependences of the various partial structure factors, which contribute to the total intensities of the scattering peaks.

Evaluation of Methods Used for Estimating Selected Streamflow Statistics, and Flood Frequency and Magnitude, for Small Basins in North Coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mann, Michael P.; Rizzardo, Jule; Satkowski, Richard

2004-01-01

Accurate streamflow statistics are essential to water resource agencies involved in both science and decision-making. When long-term streamflow data are lacking at a site, estimation techniques are often employed to generate streamflow statistics. However, procedures for accurately estimating streamflow statistics often are lacking. When estimation procedures are developed, they often are not evaluated properly before being applied. Use of unevaluated or underevaluated flow-statistic estimation techniques can result in improper water-resources decision-making. The California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) uses two key techniques, a modified rational equation and drainage basin area-ratio transfer, to estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. These techniques have been implemented to varying degrees, but have not been formally evaluated. For estimating peak flows at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals, the SWRCB uses the U.S. Geological Surveys (USGS) regional peak-flow equations. In this study, done cooperatively by the USGS and SWRCB, the SWRCB estimated several flow statistics at 40 USGS streamflow gaging stations in the north coast region of California. The SWRCB estimates were made without reference to USGS flow data. The USGS used the streamflow data provided by the 40 stations to generate flow statistics that could be compared with SWRCB estimates for accuracy. While some SWRCB estimates compared favorably with USGS statistics, results were subject to varying degrees of error over the region. Flow-based estimation techniques generally performed better than rain-based methods, especially for estimation of December 15 to March 31 mean daily flows. The USGS peak-flow equations also performed well, but tended to underestimate peak flows. The USGS equations performed within reported error bounds, but will require updating in the future as peak-flow data sets grow larger. Little correlation was discovered between estimation errors and geographic locations or various basin characteristics. However, for 25-percentile year mean-daily-flow estimates for December 15 to March 31, the greatest estimation errors were at east San Francisco Bay area stations with mean annual precipitation less than or equal to 30 inches, and estimated 2-year/24-hour rainfall intensity less than 3 inches.

Peak flow regression equations For small, ungaged streams in Maine: Comparing map-based to field-based variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2015-01-01

Regression equations to estimate peak streamflows with 1- to 500-year recurrence intervals (annual exceedance probabilities from 99 to 0.2 percent, respectively) were developed for small, ungaged streams in Maine. Equations presented here are the best available equations for estimating peak flows at ungaged basins in Maine with drainage areas from 0.3 to 12 square miles (mi2). Previously developed equations continue to be the best available equations for estimating peak flows for basin areas greater than 12 mi2. New equations presented here are based on streamflow records at 40 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with a minimum of 10 years of recorded peak flows between 1963 and 2012. Ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the best explanatory variables for the regression equations. Traditional map-based explanatory variables were compared to variables requiring field measurements. Two field-based variables—culvert rust lines and bankfull channel widths—either were not commonly found or did not explain enough of the variability in the peak flows to warrant inclusion in the equations. The best explanatory variables were drainage area and percent basin wetlands; values for these variables were determined with a geographic information system. Generalized least-squares regression was used with these two variables to determine the equation coefficients and estimates of accuracy for the final equations.

A Gaussian Model-Based Probabilistic Approach for Pulse Transit Time Estimation.

PubMed

Jang, Dae-Geun; Park, Seung-Hun; Hahn, Minsoo

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic approach to pulse transit time (PTT) estimation using a Gaussian distribution model. It is motivated basically by the hypothesis that PTTs normalized by RR intervals follow the Gaussian distribution. To verify the hypothesis, we demonstrate the effects of arterial compliance on the normalized PTTs using the Moens-Korteweg equation. Furthermore, we observe a Gaussian distribution of the normalized PTTs on real data. In order to estimate the PTT using the hypothesis, we first assumed that R-waves in the electrocardiogram (ECG) can be correctly identified. The R-waves limit searching ranges to detect pulse peaks in the photoplethysmogram (PPG) and to synchronize the results with cardiac beats--i.e., the peaks of the PPG are extracted within the corresponding RR interval of the ECG as pulse peak candidates. Their probabilities of being the actual pulse peak are then calculated using a Gaussian probability function. The parameters of the Gaussian function are automatically updated when a new pulse peak is identified. This update makes the probability function adaptive to variations of cardiac cycles. Finally, the pulse peak is identified as the candidate with the highest probability. The proposed approach is tested on a database where ECG and PPG waveforms are collected simultaneously during the submaximal bicycle ergometer exercise test. The results are promising, suggesting that the method provides a simple but more accurate PTT estimation in real applications.

Parasitic gastro-enteritis in lambs — A model for estimating the timing of the larval emergence peak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starr, J. R.; Thomas, R. J.

1980-09-01

The life history of the nematode parasites of domestic ruminants usually involves the development and survival of free-living stages on pasture. The pasture is, therefore, the site of deposition, development and transmission of nematode infection and meteorological factors affecting the pasture will affect the parasites. Recently Thomas and Starr (1978) discussed an empirical technique for forecasting the timing of the summer wave of gastro-intestinal parasitism in North-East England in the lamb crop using meteorological data and in particular estimates of the duration of “surface wetness”. This paper presents an attempt to model “surface wetness” and the temperature limitation to nematode development.

Preliminary evaluation of magnitude and frequency of floods in selected small drainage basins in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolva, J.R.

1985-01-01

A previous study of flood magitudes and frequencies in Ohio concluded that existing regionalized flood equations may not be adequate for estimating peak flows in small basins that are heavily forested, surface mined, or located in northwestern Ohio. In order to provide a large data base for improving estimation of flood peaks in these basins, 30 crest-stage gages were installed in 1977, in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation, to provide a 10-year record of flood data The study area consists of two distinct parts: Northwestern Ohio, which contains 8 sites, and southern and eastern Ohio, which contains 22 sites in small forested or surface-mined drainage basins. Basin characteristics were determined for all 30 sites for 1978 conditions. Annual peaks were recorded or estimated for all 30 sites for water years 1978-82; an additional year of peak discharges was available at four sites. The 2-year (Q2) and 5-year (Q5) flood peaks were determined from these annual peaks.Q2 and Q5 values also were calculated using published regionalized regression equations for Ohio. The ratios of the observed to predicted 2-year (R2) and 5-year (R5) values were then calculated. This study found that observed flood peaks aree lower than estimated peaks by a significant amount in surface-mined basins. The average ratios of observed to predicted R2 values are 0.51 for basins with more than 40 percent surface-minded land, and 0.68 for sites with any surface-mined land. The average R5 value is 0.55 for sites with more than 40 percent surface-minded land, and 0.61 for sites with any surface-mined land. Estimated flood peaks from forested basins agree with the observed values fairly well. R2 values average 0.87 for sites with 20 percent or more forested land, but no surface-mined land, and R5 values average 0.96. If all sites with more than 20 percent forested land and some surface-mined land are considered, R2 the values average 0.86, and the R5 values average 0.82.

Estimation of ground motion parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, David M.; Joyner, W.B.; Oliver, A.A.; Page, R.A.

1978-01-01

Strong motion data from western North America for earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5 are examined to provide the basis for estimating peak acceleration, velocity, displacement, and duration as a function of distance for three magnitude classes. A subset of the data (from the San Fernando earthquake) is used to assess the effects of structural size and of geologic site conditions on peak motions recorded at the base of structures. Small but statistically significant differences are observed in peak values of horizontal acceleration, velocity and displacement recorded on soil at the base of small structures compared with values recorded at the base of large structures. The peak acceleration tends to b3e less and the peak velocity and displacement tend to be greater on the average at the base of large structures than at the base of small structures. In the distance range used in the regression analysis (15-100 km) the values of peak horizontal acceleration recorded at soil sites in the San Fernando earthquake are not significantly different from the values recorded at rock sites, but values of peak horizontal velocity and displacement are significantly greater at soil sites than at rock sites. Some consideration is given to the prediction of ground motions at close distances where there are insufficient recorded data points. As might be expected from the lack of data, published relations for predicting peak horizontal acceleration give widely divergent estimates at close distances (three well known relations predict accelerations between 0.33 g to slightly over 1 g at a distance of 5 km from a magnitude 6.5 earthquake). After considering the physics of the faulting process, the few available data close to faults, and the modifying effects of surface topography, at the present time it would be difficult to accept estimates less than about 0.8 g, 110 cm/s, and 40 cm, respectively, for the mean values of peak acceleration, velocity, and displacement at rock sites within 5 km of fault rupture in a magnitude 6.5 earthquake. These estimates can be expected to change as more data become available.

Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Small Urban Streams in South Carolina, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Guimaraes, Wladimir B.

2004-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of floods at 20 streamflowgaging stations on small, unregulated urban streams in or near South Carolina were estimated by fitting the measured wateryear peak flows to a log-Pearson Type-III distribution. The period of record (through September 30, 2001) for the measured water-year peak flows ranged from 11 to 25 years with a mean and median length of 16 years. The drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations ranged from 0.18 to 41 square miles. Based on the flood-frequency estimates from the 20 streamflow-gaging stations (13 in South Carolina; 4 in North Carolina; and 3 in Georgia), generalized least-squares regression was used to develop regional regression equations. These equations can be used to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows for small urban streams in the Piedmont, upper Coastal Plain, and lower Coastal Plain physiographic provinces of South Carolina. The most significant explanatory variables from this analysis were mainchannel length, percent impervious area, and basin development factor. Mean standard errors of prediction for the regression equations ranged from -25 to 33 percent for the 10-year recurrence-interval flows and from -35 to 54 percent for the 100-year recurrence-interval flows. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a Geographic Information System application called StreamStats that makes the process of computing streamflow statistics at ungaged sites faster and more consistent than manual methods. This application was developed in the Massachusetts District and ongoing work is being done in other districts to develop a similar application using streamflow statistics relative to those respective States. Considering the future possibility of implementing StreamStats in South Carolina, an alternative set of regional regression equations was developed using only main channel length and impervious area. This was done because no digital coverages are currently available for basin development factor and, therefore, it could not be included in the StreamStats application. The average mean standard error of prediction for the alternative equations was 2 to 5 percent larger than the standard errors for the equations that contained basin development factor. For the urban streamflow-gaging stations in South Carolina, measured water-year peak flows were compared with those from an earlier urban flood-frequency investigation. The peak flows from the earlier investigation were computed using a rainfall-runoff model. At many of the sites, graphical comparisons indicated that the variance of the measured data was much less than the variance of the simulated data. Several statistical tests were applied to compare the variances and the means of the measured and simulated data for each site. The results indicated that the variances were significantly different for 11 of the 13 South Carolina streamflow-gaging stations. For one streamflow-gaging station, the test for normality, which is one of the assumptions of the data when comparing variances, indicated that neither the measured data nor the simulated data were distributed normally; therefore, the test for differences in the variances was not used for that streamflow-gaging station. Another statistical test was used to test for statistically significant differences in the means of the measured and simulated data. The results indicated that for 5 of the 13 urban streamflowgaging stations in South Carolina there was a statistically significant difference in the means of the two data sets. For comparison purposes and to test the hypothesis that there may have been climatic differences between the period in which the measured peak-flow data were measured and the period for which historic rainfall data were used to compute the simulated peak flows, 16 rural streamflow-gaging stations with long-term records were reviewed using similar techniques as those used for the measured an

Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

2016-03-21

Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an area-averaged peak runoff coefficient for the September 2013 rain storms in Boulder County, and the 8.6 millimeters per hour to be the rainfall intensity corresponding to a soil moisture threshold that controls the soil infiltration rate. Peak discharge estimates based on the sediment transport effects were generally less than the ensemble average and indicated that sediment transport may be a mechanism that limits velocities in these types of mountain streams such that the Froude number fluctuates about 1 suggesting that this type of floodflow can be approximated as critical flow.

Traffic evacuation time under nonhomogeneous conditions.

PubMed

Fazio, Joseph; Shetkar, Rohan; Mathew, Tom V

2017-06-01

During many manmade and natural crises such as terrorist threats, floods, hazardous chemical and gas leaks, emergency personnel need to estimate the time in which people can evacuate from the affected urban area. Knowing an estimated evacuation time for a given crisis, emergency personnel can plan and prepare accordingly with the understanding that the actual evacuation time will take longer. Given the urban area to be evacuated, street widths exiting the area's perimeter, the area's population density, average vehicle occupancy, transport mode share and crawl speed, an estimation of traffic evacuation time can be derived. Peak-hour traffic data collected at three, midblock, Mumbai sites of varying geometric features and traffic composition were used in calibrating a model that estimates peak-hour traffic flow rates. Model validation revealed a correlation coefficient of +0.98 between observed and predicted peak-hour flow rates. A methodology is developed that estimates traffic evacuation time using the model.

Estimating the magnitude of peak flows at selected recurrence intervals for streams in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles

2002-01-01

The region-of-influence method is not recommended for use in determining flood-frequency estimates for ungaged sites in Idaho because the results, overall, are less accurate and the calculations are more complex than those of regional regression equations. The regional regression equations were considered to be the primary method of estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak flows for ungaged sites in Idaho.

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharge and Maximum Observed Peak Discharge in New Mexico and Surrounding Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2008-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable design of bridges, culverts, and open-channel hydraulic analysis, and for flood-hazard mapping in New Mexico and surrounding areas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Department of Transportation, updated estimates of peak-discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and updated regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites by use of data collected through 2004 for 293 gaging stations on unregulated streams that have 10 or more years of record. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 140 of the 293 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge by having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each of the nine regions, logarithms of the maximum peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics by using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then were applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 38 to 93 percent (mean value is 62, and median value is 59) for the 100-year flood. The 1996 investigation standard error of prediction for the flood regions ranged from 41 to 96 percent (mean value is 67, and median value is 68) for the 100-year flood that was analyzed by using generalized least-squares regression analysis. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are more reliable than those in the 1996 report because of the increased length of record and improved geographic information system (GIS) method to determine basin and climatic characteristics. Flood-frequency estimates can be made for ungaged sites upstream or downstream from gaging stations by using a method that transfers flood-frequency data at the gaging station to the ungaged site by using a drainage-area ratio adjustment equation. The peak discharge for a given recurrence interval at the gaging station, drainage-area ratio, and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region is used to transfer the peak discharge for the recurrence interval to the ungaged site. Maximum observed peak discharge as related to drainage area was determined for New Mexico. Extreme events are commonly used in the design and appraisal of bridge crossings and other structures. Bridge-scour evaluations are commonly made by using the 500-year peak discharge for these appraisals. Peak-discharge data collected at 293 gaging stations and 367 miscellaneous sites were used to develop a maximum peak-discharge relation as an alternative method of estimating peak discharge of an extreme event such as a maximum probable flood.

Real-Time PCR Quantification Using A Variable Reaction Efficiency Model

PubMed Central

Platts, Adrian E.; Johnson, Graham D.; Linnemann, Amelia K.; Krawetz, Stephen A.

2008-01-01

Quantitative real-time PCR remains a cornerstone technique in gene expression analysis and sequence characterization. Despite the importance of the approach to experimental biology the confident assignment of reaction efficiency to the early cycles of real-time PCR reactions remains problematic. Considerable noise may be generated where few cycles in the amplification are available to estimate peak efficiency. An alternate approach that uses data from beyond the log-linear amplification phase is explored with the aim of reducing noise and adding confidence to efficiency estimates. PCR reaction efficiency is regressed to estimate the per-cycle profile of an asymptotically departed peak efficiency, even when this is not closely approximated in the measurable cycles. The process can be repeated over replicates to develop a robust estimate of peak reaction efficiency. This leads to an estimate of the maximum reaction efficiency that may be considered primer-design specific. Using a series of biological scenarios we demonstrate that this approach can provide an accurate estimate of initial template concentration. PMID:18570886

A novel algorithm for laser self-mixing sensors used with the Kalman filter to measure displacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hui; Liu, Ji-Gou

2018-07-01

This paper proposes a simple and effective method for estimating the feedback level factor C in a self-mixing interferometric sensor. It is used with a Kalman filter to retrieve the displacement. Without the complicated and onerous calculation process of the general C estimation method, a final equation is obtained. Thus, the estimation of C only involves a few simple calculations. It successfully retrieves the sinusoidal and aleatory displacement by means of simulated self-mixing signals in both weak and moderate feedback regimes. To deal with the errors resulting from noise and estimate bias of C and to further improve the retrieval precision, a Kalman filter is employed following the general phase unwrapping method. The simulation and experiment results show that the retrieved displacement using the C obtained with the proposed method is comparable to the joint estimation of C and α. Besides, the Kalman filter can significantly decrease measurement errors, especially the error caused by incorrectly locating the peak and valley positions of the signal.

Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Streamflows for Ungaged Sites on Streams in Alaska and Conterminous Basins in Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.; Meyer, David F.; Tasker, Gary D.

2003-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflow are needed across Alaska for floodplain management, cost-effective design of floodway structures such as bridges and culverts, and other water-resource management issues. Peak-streamflow magnitudes for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows were computed for 301 streamflow-gaging and partial-record stations in Alaska and 60 stations in conterminous basins of Canada. Flows were analyzed from data through the 1999 water year using a log-Pearson Type III analysis. The State was divided into seven hydrologically distinct streamflow analysis regions for this analysis, in conjunction with a concurrent study of low and high flows. New generalized skew coefficients were developed for each region using station skew coefficients for stations with at least 25 years of systematic peak-streamflow data. Equations for estimating peak streamflows at ungaged locations were developed for Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada using a generalized least-squares regression model. A set of predictive equations for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year peak streamflows was developed for each streamflow analysis region from peak-streamflow magnitudes and physical and climatic basin characteristics. These equations may be used for unregulated streams without flow diversions, dams, periodically releasing glacial impoundments, or other streamflow conditions not correlated to basin characteristics. Basin characteristics should be obtained using methods similar to those used in this report to preserve the statistical integrity of the equations.

Influence of Spatial Variation in Ground Motion Peak Acceleration on Local Site Effects Estimation at Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR) Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghica, D. V.; Radulian, M.; Popa, M.; Grecu, B.

2006-05-01

Basically, array processing techniques require a high signal coherency across the seismic site; therefore the local crustal velocities below the station, signal amplitude differences between array elements and local noise conditions, resulting in local site effects will affect calculation of phase arrival times, propagation velocities and ground motion amplitudes. In general, array techniques assume a homogenous structure for all sites, and a simple relief correction is taking in account for the data analysis. To increase the results accuracy, individual element corrections must be applied, based on the biases factors systematically observed. This study aims at identifying the anomalous amplitude variations recorded at the Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR) and at explaining their influence on site effects estimation. Maximum amplitudes for the teleseismic and regional phases in four narrow frequency bands (0.25-0.5Hz; 0.5-1Hz; 1-2Hz; 1.5-3Hz) are measured. Spatial distribution of ground motion peak acceleration in BURAR site, for each band, is plotted; a different behavior was observed at frequencies below 2Hz. The most important aspect observed is the largest amplitude exhibited by BUR07 across the whole array at high frequencies (an amplification factor of about two). This can be explained by the different geology at BUR07 site (mica schist outcrops), comparing with the rest of elements (green schist outcrops). At the lowest frequencies (0.25-0.5Hz), BUR09 peak amplitudes dominate the other sites. Considering BUR07 as reference site, peak acceleration ratios were investigated. The largest scattering of these ratios appears at the highest frequencies (1.5-3Hz), when the weight of over unit values is about 90 %. No azimuth and distance dependence was found for these effects, suggesting the absence of the dipping layer structures. Although an increase of the ratio values is noticed for epicentral distance between 8000 and 10000 km, for frequencies over 1 Hz. The results of this study are essential to further develop the calibration technique for seismic monitoring with BURAR array, in order to improve the detection and single-array location capabilities of the system.

Reduced rank models for travel time estimation of low order mode pulses.

PubMed

Chandrayadula, Tarun K; Wage, Kathleen E; Worcester, Peter F; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Mercer, James A; Andrew, Rex K; Howe, Bruce M

2013-10-01

Mode travel time estimation in the presence of internal waves (IWs) is a challenging problem. IWs perturb the sound speed, which results in travel time wander and mode scattering. A standard approach to travel time estimation is to pulse compress the broadband signal, pick the peak of the compressed time series, and average the peak time over multiple receptions to reduce variance. The peak-picking approach implicitly assumes there is a single strong arrival and does not perform well when there are multiple arrivals due to scattering. This article presents a statistical model for the scattered mode arrivals and uses the model to design improved travel time estimators. The model is based on an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the mode time series. Range-dependent simulations and data from the Long-range Ocean Acoustic Propagation Experiment (LOAPEX) indicate that the modes are represented by a small number of EOFs. The reduced-rank EOF model is used to construct a travel time estimator based on the Matched Subspace Detector (MSD). Analysis of simulation and experimental data show that the MSDs are more robust to IW scattering than peak picking. The simulation analysis also highlights how IWs affect the mode excitation by the source.

BATMAN--an R package for the automated quantification of metabolites from nuclear magnetic resonance spectra using a Bayesian model.

PubMed

Hao, Jie; Astle, William; De Iorio, Maria; Ebbels, Timothy M D

2012-08-01

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra are widely used in metabolomics to obtain metabolite profiles in complex biological mixtures. Common methods used to assign and estimate concentrations of metabolites involve either an expert manual peak fitting or extra pre-processing steps, such as peak alignment and binning. Peak fitting is very time consuming and is subject to human error. Conversely, alignment and binning can introduce artefacts and limit immediate biological interpretation of models. We present the Bayesian automated metabolite analyser for NMR spectra (BATMAN), an R package that deconvolutes peaks from one-dimensional NMR spectra, automatically assigns them to specific metabolites from a target list and obtains concentration estimates. The Bayesian model incorporates information on characteristic peak patterns of metabolites and is able to account for shifts in the position of peaks commonly seen in NMR spectra of biological samples. It applies a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from a joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and obtains concentration estimates with reduced error compared with conventional numerical integration and comparable to manual deconvolution by experienced spectroscopists. http://www1.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/people/t.ebbels/ t.ebbels@imperial.ac.uk.

Leveraging probabilistic peak detection to estimate baseline drift in complex chromatographic samples.

PubMed

Lopatka, Martin; Barcaru, Andrei; Sjerps, Marjan J; Vivó-Truyols, Gabriel

2016-01-29

Accurate analysis of chromatographic data often requires the removal of baseline drift. A frequently employed strategy strives to determine asymmetric weights in order to fit a baseline model by regression. Unfortunately, chromatograms characterized by a very high peak saturation pose a significant challenge to such algorithms. In addition, a low signal-to-noise ratio (i.e. s/n<40) also adversely affects accurate baseline correction by asymmetrically weighted regression. We present a baseline estimation method that leverages a probabilistic peak detection algorithm. A posterior probability of being affected by a peak is computed for each point in the chromatogram, leading to a set of weights that allow non-iterative calculation of a baseline estimate. For extremely saturated chromatograms, the peak weighted (PW) method demonstrates notable improvement compared to the other methods examined. However, in chromatograms characterized by low-noise and well-resolved peaks, the asymmetric least squares (ALS) and the more sophisticated Mixture Model (MM) approaches achieve superior results in significantly less time. We evaluate the performance of these three baseline correction methods over a range of chromatographic conditions to demonstrate the cases in which each method is most appropriate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic deformations and the M6.7, Northridge, California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

1997-01-01

A method of estimating the complete time-varying dynamic formation field from commonly available three-component single station seismic data has been developed and applied to study the relationship between dynamic deformation and ground failures and structural damage using observations from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Estimates from throughout the epicentral region indicate that the horizontal strains exceed the vertical ones by more than a factor of two. The largest strains (exceeding ???100 ??strain) correlate with regions of greatest ground failure. There is a poor correlation between structural damage and peak strain amplitudes. The smallest strains, ???35 ??strain, are estimated in regions of no damage or ground failure. Estimates in the two regions with most severe and well mapped permanent deformation, Potrero Canyon and the Granada-Mission Hills regions, exhibit the largest strains; peak horizontal strains estimates in these regions equal ???139 and ???229 ??strain respectively. Of note, the dynamic principal strain axes have strikes consistent with the permanent failure features suggesting that, while gravity, sub-surface materials, and hydrologic conditions undoubtedly played fundamental roles in determining where and what types of failures occurred, the dynamic deformation field may have been favorably sized and oriented to initiate failure processes. These results support other studies that conclude that the permanent deformation resulted from ground shaking, rather than from static strains associated with primary or secondary faulting. They also suggest that such an analysis, either using data or theoretical calculations, may enable observations of paleo-ground failure to be used as quantitative constraints on the size and geometry of previous earthquakes. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Limited.

Data preprocessing method for liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry based metabolomics.

PubMed

Wei, Xiaoli; Shi, Xue; Kim, Seongho; Zhang, Li; Patrick, Jeffrey S; Binkley, Joe; McClain, Craig; Zhang, Xiang

2012-09-18

A set of data preprocessing algorithms for peak detection and peak list alignment are reported for analysis of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics data. For spectrum deconvolution, peak picking is achieved at the selected ion chromatogram (XIC) level. To estimate and remove the noise in XICs, each XIC is first segmented into several peak groups based on the continuity of scan number, and the noise level is estimated by all the XIC signals, except the regions potentially with presence of metabolite ion peaks. After removing noise, the peaks of molecular ions are detected using both the first and the second derivatives, followed by an efficient exponentially modified Gaussian-based peak deconvolution method for peak fitting. A two-stage alignment algorithm is also developed, where the retention times of all peaks are first transferred into the z-score domain and the peaks are aligned based on the measure of their mixture scores after retention time correction using a partial linear regression. Analysis of a set of spike-in LC-MS data from three groups of samples containing 16 metabolite standards mixed with metabolite extract from mouse livers demonstrates that the developed data preprocessing method performs better than two of the existing popular data analysis packages, MZmine2.6 and XCMS(2), for peak picking, peak list alignment, and quantification.

A Data Pre-processing Method for Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry-based Metabolomics

PubMed Central

Wei, Xiaoli; Shi, Xue; Kim, Seongho; Zhang, Li; Patrick, Jeffrey S.; Binkley, Joe; McClain, Craig; Zhang, Xiang

2012-01-01

A set of data pre-processing algorithms for peak detection and peak list alignment are reported for analysis of LC-MS based metabolomics data. For spectrum deconvolution, peak picking is achieved at selected ion chromatogram (XIC) level. To estimate and remove the noise in XICs, each XIC is first segmented into several peak groups based on the continuity of scan number, and the noise level is estimated by all the XIC signals, except the regions potentially with presence of metabolite ion peaks. After removing noise, the peaks of molecular ions are detected using both the first and the second derivatives, followed by an efficient exponentially modified Gaussian-based peak deconvolution method for peak fitting. A two-stage alignment algorithm is also developed, where the retention times of all peaks are first transferred into z-score domain and the peaks are aligned based on the measure of their mixture scores after retention time correction using a partial linear regression. Analysis of a set of spike-in LC-MS data from three groups of samples containing 16 metabolite standards mixed with metabolite extract from mouse livers, demonstrates that the developed data pre-processing methods performs better than two of the existing popular data analysis packages, MZmine2.6 and XCMS2, for peak picking, peak list alignment and quantification. PMID:22931487

Poisson regression models outperform the geometrical model in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Christensen, A L; Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C

2011-12-01

Several statistical methods of assessing seasonal variation are available. Brookhart and Rothman [3] proposed a second-order moment-based estimator based on the geometrical model derived by Edwards [1], and reported that this estimator is superior in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation compared with Edwards' estimator with respect to bias and mean squared error. Alternatively, seasonal variation may be modelled using a Poisson regression model, which provides flexibility in modelling the pattern of seasonal variation and adjustments for covariates. Based on a Monte Carlo simulation study three estimators, one based on the geometrical model, and two based on log-linear Poisson regression models, were evaluated in regards to bias and standard deviation (SD). We evaluated the estimators on data simulated according to schemes varying in seasonal variation and presence of a secular trend. All methods and analyses in this paper are available in the R package Peak2Trough[13]. Applying a Poisson regression model resulted in lower absolute bias and SD for data simulated according to the corresponding model assumptions. Poisson regression models had lower bias and SD for data simulated to deviate from the corresponding model assumptions than the geometrical model. This simulation study encourages the use of Poisson regression models in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation as opposed to the geometrical model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pattern of Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jobsen, Jan, E-mail: j.jobsen@mst.nl; Palen, Job van der; Department of Research Methodology, Measurement, and Data Analysis, Faculty of Behavioral Science, University of Twente, Enschede

Purpose: To analyze the incidence and prognostic factors of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) in a large, population-based, single-center study with long-term follow-up. Methods and Materials: We analyzed 3595 cases in which BCT was performed in 3824 women with stage I or II breast cancer. The incidence of IBTR was analyzed over time and was based on IBTR as first event. Results: The 15-year local relapse-free survival was 90.9%. The hazard estimates for IBTR showed a time course with 2 peaks, the first at approximately 5 years and the second, twice as high, at 12 years. Stratifying subjectsmore » by age and margin status showed that, for women ≤40 years old with negative margins, adjuvant systemic therapy led to a 5-fold reduced risk of recurrence compared to none, and the presence of lymph vascular space invasion (LVSI) had a 3-fold increased risk compared to its absence. For women >40 years old, the presence of LVSI (hazard ratio [HR] 2.5) and the presence of lobular carcinoma in situ in the lumpectomy specimen (HR 2.3) were the only 2 risk factors. Conclusions: We demonstrated a pattern in risk of IBTR over time, with 2 peaks, first at approximately 5 years and a second, much higher peak at approximately 12 years, especially for women ≤40 years old. For women ≤40 years old with tumor-free resection margins, we noted that the absence of adjuvant systemic therapy and the presence of LVSI were independent prognostic factors of IBTR. For women >40 years old, the presence of LVSI and the presence of lobular carcinoma in situ were independent risk factors.« less

Understanding Differences in the Body Burden–Age Relationships of Bioaccumulating Contaminants Based on Population Cross Sections versus Individuals

PubMed Central

Quinn, Cristina L.

2012-01-01

Background: Body burdens of persistent bioaccumulative contaminants estimated from the cross-sectional biomonitoring of human populations are often plotted against age. Such relationships have previously been assumed to reflect the role of age in bioaccumulation. Objectives: We used a mechanistic modeling approach to reproduce concentration-versus-age relationships and investigate factors that influence them. Method: CoZMoMAN is an environmental fate and human food chain bioaccumulation model that estimates time trends in human body burdens in response to time-variant environmental emissions. Trends of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 153 concentrations versus age for population cross sections were estimated using simulated longitudinal data for individual women born at different times. The model was also used to probe the influence of partitioning and degradation properties, length of emissions, and model assumptions regarding lipid content and liver metabolism on concentration–age trends of bioaccumulative and persistent contaminants. Results: Body burden–age relationships for population cross sections and individuals over time are not equivalent. The time lapse between the peak in emissions and sample collection for biomonitoring is the most influential factor controlling the shape of concentration–age trends for chemicals with human metabolic half-lives longer than 1 year. Differences in observed concentration–age trends for PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers are consistent with differences in emission time trends and human metabolic half-lives. Conclusions: Bioaccumulation does not monotonically increase with age. Our model suggests that the main predictors of cross-sectional body burden trends with age are the amount of time elapsed after peak emissions and the human metabolic and environmental degradation rates. PMID:22472302

Strong ground motion in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, during the M7.0 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, Susan E; Given, Doug; Taniguchi, Tomoyo; Altidor, J.R.; Anglade, Dieuseul; Mildor, S-L.

2011-01-01

No strong motion records are available for the 12 January 2010 M7.0 Haiti earthquake. We use aftershock recordings as well as detailed considerations of damage to estimate the severity and distribution of mainshock shaking in Port-au-Prince. Relative to ground motions at a hard - rock reference site, peak accelerations are amplified by a factor of approximately 2 at sites on low-lying deposits in central Port-au-Prince and by a factor of 2.5 - 3.5 on a steep foothill ridge in the southern Port-au-Prince metropolitan region. The observed amplification along the ridge cannot be explained by sediment - induced amplification , but is consistent with predicted topographic amplification by a steep, narrow ridge. Although damage was largely a consequence of poor construction , the damage pattern inferred from analysis of remote sensing imagery provides evidence for a correspondence between small-scale (0.1 - 1.0 km) topographic relief and high damage. Mainshock shaking intensity can be estimated crudely from a consideration of macroseismic effects . We further present detailed, quantitative analysis of the marks left on a tile floor by an industrial battery rack displaced during the mainshock, at the location where we observed the highest weak motion amplifications. Results of this analysis indicate that mainshock shaking was significantly higher at this location (~0.5 g , MMI VIII) relative to the shaking in parts of Port-au-Prince that experienced light damage. Our results further illustrate how observations of rigid body horizontal displacement during earthquakes can be used to estimate peak ground accelerations in the absence of instrumental data .

Identification of Preferential Groundwater Flow Pathways from Local Tracer Breakthrough Curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokkinaki, A.; Sleep, B. E.; Dearden, R.; Wealthall, G.

2009-12-01

Characterizing preferential groundwater flow paths in the subsurface is a key factor in the design of in situ remediation technologies. When applying reaction-based remediation methods, such as enhanced bioremediation, preferential flow paths result in fast solute migration and potentially ineffective delivery of reactants, thereby adversely affecting treatment efficiency. The presence of such subsurface conduits was observed at the SABRe (Source Area Bioremediation) research site. Non-uniform migration of contaminants and electron donor during the field trials of enhanced bioremediation supported this observation. To better determine the spatial flow field of the heterogeneous aquifer, a conservative tracer test was conducted. Breakthrough curves were obtained at a reference plane perpendicular to the principal groundwater flow direction. The resulting dataset was analyzed using three different methods: peak arrival times, analytical solution fitting and moment analysis. Interpretation using the peak arrival time method indicated areas of fast plume migration. However, some of the high velocities are supported by single data points, thus adding considerable uncertainty to the estimated velocity distribution. Observation of complete breakthrough curves indicated different types of solute breakthrough, corresponding to different transport mechanisms. Sharp peaks corresponded to high conductivity preferential flow pathways, whereas more dispersed breakthrough curves with long tails were characteristic of significant dispersive mixing and dilution. While analytical solutions adequately quantified flow characteristics for the first type of curves, they failed to do so for the second type, in which case they gave unrealistic results. Therefore, a temporal moment analysis was performed to obtain complete spatial distributions of mass recovery, velocity and dispersivity. Though the results of moment analysis qualitatively agreed with the results of previous methods, more realistic estimates of velocities were obtained and the presence of one major preferential flow pathway was confirmed. However, low mass recovery and deviations from the 10% scaling rule for dispersivities indicate that insufficient spatial and temporal monitoring, as well as interpolation and truncation errors introduced uncertainty in the flow and transport parameters estimated by the method of moments. The results of the three analyses are valuable for enhancing the understanding of mass transport and remediation performance. Comparing the different interpretation methods, increasing the amount of concentration data considered in the analysis, the derived velocity fields were smoother and the estimated local velocities and dispersivities became more realistic. In conclusion, moment analysis is a method that represents a smoothed average of the velocity across the entire breakthrough curve, whereas the peak arrival time, which may be a less well constrained estimate, represents the physical peak arrival and typically yields a higher velocity than the moment analysis. This is an important distinction when applying the results of the tracer test to field sites.

Repetitive lifting tasks fatigue the back muscles and increase the bending moment acting on the lumbar spine.

PubMed

Dolan, P; Adams, M A

1998-08-01

During manual handling, the back muscles protect the spine from excessive flexion, but in doing so impose a high compressive force on it. Epidemiological links between back pain and repetitive lifting suggest that fatigued muscles may adversely affect the balance between bending and compression. Fifteen volunteers lifted and lowered a 10 kg weight from floor to waist height 100 times. Throughout this task, the bending moment acting on the osteoligamentous lumbar spine was estimated from continuous measurements of lumbar flexion, obtained using the 3-Space Isotrak. Spinal compression was estimated from the electromyographic (EMG) activity of the erector spinae muscles, recorded from skin-surface electrodes at the levels of T10 and L3. EMG signals were calibrated against force when subjects pulled up on a load cell, and correction factors were applied to account for changes in muscle length and contraction velocity. Fatigue in the erector spinae muscles was quantified by comparing the frequency content of their EMG signal during static contractions performed before, and immediately after, the 100 lifts. Results showed that peak lumbar flexion increased during the 100 lifts from 83.3 +/- 14.8% to 90.4 +/- 14.3%, resulting in a 36% increase in estimated peak bending moment acting on the lumbar spine (P = 0.008). Peak spinal compression fell by 11% (p = 0.007). The median frequency of the EMG signal at L3 decreased by 5.5% following the 100 lifts (p = 0.042) confirming that the erector spinae were fatigued, but measures of fatigue showed no significant correlation with increased bending. We conclude that repetitive lifting induces measurable fatigue in the erector spinae muscles, and substantially increases the bending moment acting on the lumbar spine.

Estimation of absorption rate constant (ka) following oral administration by Wagner-Nelson, Loo-Riegelman, and statistical moments in the presence of a secondary peak.

PubMed

Mahmood, Iftekhar

2004-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of Wagner-Nelson, Loo-Reigelman, and statistical moments methods in determining the absorption rate constant(s) in the presence of a secondary peak. These methods were also evaluated when there were two absorption rates without a secondary peak. Different sets of plasma concentration versus time data for a hypothetical drug following one or two compartment models were generated by simulation. The true ka was compared with the ka estimated by Wagner-Nelson, Loo-Riegelman and statistical moments methods. The results of this study indicate that Wagner-Nelson, Loo-Riegelman and statistical moments methods may not be used for the estimation of absorption rate constants in the presence of a secondary peak or when absorption takes place with two absorption rates.

Preliminary Upper Estimate of Peak Currents in Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation at Distant Locations from a TMS Coil

PubMed Central

Makarov, Sergey N.; Yanamadala, Janakinadh; Piazza, Matthew W.; Helderman, Alex M.; Thang, Niang S.; Burnham, Edward H.; Pascual-Leone, Alvaro

2016-01-01

Goals Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is increasingly used as a diagnostic and therapeutic tool for numerous neuropsychiatric disorders. The use of TMS might cause whole-body exposure to undesired induced currents in patients and TMS operators. The aim of the present study is to test and justify a simple analytical model known previously, which may be helpful as an upper estimate of eddy current density at a particular distant observation point for any body composition and any coil setup. Methods We compare the analytical solution with comprehensive adaptive mesh refinement-based FEM simulations of a detailed full-body human model, two coil types, five coil positions, about 100,000 observation points, and two distinct pulse rise times, thus providing a representative number of different data sets for comparison, while also using other numerical data. Results Our simulations reveal that, after a certain modification, the analytical model provides an upper estimate for the eddy current density at any location within the body. In particular, it overestimates the peak eddy currents at distant locations from a TMS coil by a factor of 10 on average. Conclusion The simple analytical model tested in the present study may be valuable as a rapid method to safely estimate levels of TMS currents at different locations within a human body. Significance At present, safe limits of general exposure to TMS electric and magnetic fields are an open subject, including fetal exposure for pregnant women. PMID:26685221

Attenuation analysis of real GPR wavelets: The equivalent amplitude spectrum (EAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Economou, Nikos; Kritikakis, George

2016-03-01

Absorption of a Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) pulse is a frequency dependent attenuation mechanism which causes a spectral shift on the dominant frequency of GPR data. Both energy variation of GPR amplitude spectrum and spectral shift were used for the estimation of Quality Factor (Q*) and subsequently the characterization of the subsurface material properties. The variation of the amplitude spectrum energy has been studied by Spectral Ratio (SR) method and the frequency shift by the estimation of the Frequency Centroid Shift (FCS) or the Frequency Peak Shift (FPS) methods. The FPS method is more automatic, less robust. This work aims to increase the robustness of the FPS method by fitting a part of the amplitude spectrum of GPR data with Ricker, Gaussian, Sigmoid-Gaussian or Ricker-Gaussian functions. These functions fit different parts of the spectrum of a GPR reference wavelet and the Equivalent Amplitude Spectrum (EAS) is selected, reproducing Q* values used in forward Q* modeling analysis. Then, only the peak frequencies and the time differences between the reference wavelet and the subsequent reflected wavelets are used to estimate Q*. As long as the EAS is estimated, it is used for Q* evaluation in all the GPR section, under the assumption that the selected reference wavelet is representative. De-phasing and constant phase shift, for obtaining symmetrical wavelets, proved useful in the sufficiency of the horizons picking. Synthetic, experimental and real GPR data were examined in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Techniques for estimating flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stricker, V.A.; Sauer, V.B.

1984-01-01

The Clark Method, modified slightly was used to develop a synthetic, dimensionless hydrograph which can be used to estimate flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds. Application of the technique results in a typical (average) flood hydrograph for a given peak discharge. Input necessary to apply the technique is an estimate of basin lagtime and the recurrence interval peak discharge. Equations for this purpose were obtained from a recent nationwide study on flood frequency in urban watersheds. A regression equation was developed which relates flood volumes to drainage area size, basin lagtime, and peak discharge. This equation is useful where storage of floodwater may be a part of design of flood prevention. (USGS)

Streamflow and Erosion Response to Prolonged Intense Rainfall of November 1-2, 2000, Island of Hawaii, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Richard A.; Hill, Barry R.

2002-01-01

A combination of several meteorologic and topographic factors produced extreme rainfall over the eastern part of the island of Hawaii on November 1-2, 2000. Storm rainfall was concentrated in two distinct areas, the Waiakea and Kapapala areas, where maximum rainfall totals of 32.47 and 38.97 inches were recorded. Resultant flooding caused damages in excess of 70 million dollars, among the highest totals associated with flooding in the State's history. Storm rainfall had recurrence intervals that ranged from 10 years or less for maximum 1-hour totals to 100 years or more for maximum 24-hour totals As part of this study, peak flow and/or erosion data were collected at 41 sites. Analyses of these data indicated that peak discharges of record occurred at 6 of 12 sites where historic data were available. Peak flows with estimated recurrence intervals from 50 to over 100 years were recorded at 4 of 11 sites. Peak flows were poorly correlated with total storm rainfall. Critical rainfall durations associated with peak flows ranged from 1 to 12 hours and were about 3 hours at most sites. Rainfall-runoff computations and field observations indicated that infiltration-excess overland flow alone was not sufficient to have caused the observed flood peaks and therefore saturation-excess overland flow and subsurface flow probably contributed to peak flows at most sites Most hillslope erosion associated with the storm took place along or near the Kaoiki Pali in the Kapapala area. Hillslope erosion was predominately caused by overland flow.

Calibration of HEC-Ras hydrodynamic model using gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Rui; Komma, Jürgen

2017-04-01

The estimation of flood is essential for disaster alleviation. Hydrodynamic models are implemented to predict the occurrence and variance of flood in different scales. In practice, the calibration of hydrodynamic models aims to search the best possible parameters for the representation the natural flow resistance. Recent years have seen the calibration of hydrodynamic models being more actual and faster following the advance of earth observation products and computer based optimization techniques. In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering River Analysis System (HEC-Ras) model was set up with high-resolution digital elevation model from Laser scanner for the river Inn in Tyrol, Austria. 10 largest flood events from 19 hourly discharge gauges and flood inundation maps were selected to calibrate the HEC-Ras model. Manning roughness values and lateral inflow factors as parameters were automatically optimized with the Shuffled complex with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA). Different objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, the timing of peak, peak value and Root-mean-square deviation) were used in single or multiple way. It was found that the lateral inflow factor was the most sensitive parameter. SP-UCI algorithm could avoid the local optimal and achieve efficient and effective parameters in the calibration of HEC-Ras model using flood extension images. As results showed, calibration by means of gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps, together with objective function of Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, was very robust to obtain more reliable flood simulation, and also to catch up with the peak value and the timing of peak.

Increasing Running Step Rate Reduces Patellofemoral Joint Forces

PubMed Central

Lenhart, Rachel L.; Thelen, Darryl G.; Wille, Christa M.; Chumanov, Elizabeth S.; Heiderscheit, Bryan C.

2013-01-01

Purpose Increasing step rate has been shown to elicit changes in joint kinematics and kinetics during running, and has been suggested as a possible rehabilitation strategy for runners with patellofemoral pain. The purpose of this study was to determine how altering step rate affects internal muscle forces and patellofemoral joint loads, and then to determine what kinematic and kinetic factors best predict changes in joint loading. Methods We recorded whole body kinematics of 30 healthy adults running on an instrumented treadmill at three step rate conditions (90%, 100%, and 110% of preferred step rate). We then used a 3D lower extremity musculoskeletal model to estimate muscle, patellar tendon, and patellofemoral joint forces throughout the running gait cycles. Additionally, linear regression analysis allowed us to ascertain the relative influence of limb posture and external loads on patellofemoral joint force. Results Increasing step rate to 110% of preferred reduced peak patellofemoral joint force by 14%. Peak muscle forces were also altered as a result of the increased step rate with hip, knee and ankle extensor forces, and hip abductor forces all reduced in mid-stance. Compared to the 90% step rate condition, there was a concomitant increase in peak rectus femoris and hamstring loads during early and late swing, respectively, at higher step rates. Peak stance phase knee flexion decreased with increasing step rate, and was found to be the most important predictor of the reduction in patellofemoral joint loading. Conclusion Increasing step rate is an effective strategy to reduce patellofemoral joint forces and could be effective in modulating biomechanical factors that can contribute to patellofemoral pain. PMID:23917470

Agricultural ammonia emissions in China: reconciling bottom-up and top-down estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Chen, Youfan; Zhao, Yuanhong; Henze, Daven K.; Zhu, Liye; Song, Yu; Paulot, Fabien; Liu, Xuejun; Pan, Yuepeng; Lin, Yi; Huang, Binxiang

2018-01-01

Current estimates of agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions in China differ by more than a factor of 2, hindering our understanding of their environmental consequences. Here we apply both bottom-up statistical and top-down inversion methods to quantify NH3 emissions from agriculture in China for the year 2008. We first assimilate satellite observations of NH3 column concentration from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model to optimize Chinese anthropogenic NH3 emissions at the 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution for March-October 2008. Optimized emissions show a strong summer peak, with emissions about 50 % higher in summer than spring and fall, which is underestimated in current bottom-up NH3 emission estimates. To reconcile the latter with the top-down results, we revisit the processes of agricultural NH3 emissions and develop an improved bottom-up inventory of Chinese NH3 emissions from fertilizer application and livestock waste at the 1/2° × 2/3° resolution. Our bottom-up emission inventory includes more detailed information on crop-specific fertilizer application practices and better accounts for meteorological modulation of NH3 emission factors in China. We find that annual anthropogenic NH3 emissions are 11.7 Tg for 2008, with 5.05 Tg from fertilizer application and 5.31 Tg from livestock waste. The two sources together account for 88 % of total anthropogenic NH3 emissions in China. Our bottom-up emission estimates also show a distinct seasonality peaking in summer, consistent with top-down results from the satellite-based inversion. Further evaluations using surface network measurements show that the model driven by our bottom-up emissions reproduces the observed spatial and seasonal variations of NH3 gas concentrations and ammonium (NH4+) wet deposition fluxes over China well, providing additional credibility to the improvements we have made to our agricultural NH3 emission inventory.

Ozone in the southeastern United States: An observation-based model using measurements from the SEARCH network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, C. L.; Hidy, G. M.; Tanenbaum, S.

2014-05-01

A generalized additive model (GAM) is used to examine the influence of meteorological factors, nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMOC) on daily peak 8-h ozone (O3) concentrations. Application to 2002-2011 monitoring data from the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) program showed sensitivity of peak 8-h O3 to morning concentrations of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and to afternoon concentrations of NO2 reaction products (NOz). Peak O3 decreased with increasing NO and increased with increasing NO2 concentrations, consistent with reactions involving O3, NO, and NO2. Ozone production efficiency (OPE), estimated from the modeled relation between peak 8-h O3 and afternoon NOz, was ˜40-100 percent higher at rural compared to urban sites. OPE was nonlinear at all sites, decreasing with increasing NOz concentration. The mean ratio of NOz/NOy showed a two-fold increase from urban to rural sites, associated with chemical aging in stagnant air masses from one day (urban sites) to two or more days (non-urban sites). Peak 8-h O3 concentrations in Atlanta were sensitive to concentrations of both non-biogenic NMOC and NOz. Non-urban Yorkville, Georgia, peak 8-h O3 concentrations were sensitive to NOz but not to non-biogenic NMOC concentrations. The results are consistent with expected NMOC and NOx sensitivity in urban and non-urban locales.

Estimation of the optical errors on the luminescence imaging of water for proton beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yabe, Takuya; Komori, Masataka; Horita, Ryo; Toshito, Toshiyuki; Yamamoto, Seiichi

2018-04-01

Although luminescence imaging of water during proton-beam irradiation can be applied to range estimation, the height of the Bragg peak of the luminescence image was smaller than that measured with an ionization chamber. We hypothesized that the reasons of the difference were attributed to the optical phenomena; parallax errors of the optical system and the reflection of the luminescence from the water phantom. We estimated the errors cause by these optical phenomena affecting the luminescence image of water. To estimate the parallax error on the luminescence images, we measured the luminescence images during proton-beam irradiation using a cooled charge-coupled camera by changing the heights of the optical axis of the camera from those of the Bragg peak. When the heights of the optical axis matched to the depths of the Bragg peak, the Bragg peak heights in the depth profiles were the highest. The reflection of the luminescence of water with a black wall phantom was slightly smaller than that with a transparent phantom and changed the shapes of the depth profiles. We conclude that the parallax error significantly affects the heights of the Bragg peak and the reflection of the phantom affects the shapes of depth profiles of the luminescence images of water.

Predicting Peak Flows following Forest Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; Dobre, Mariana

2016-04-01

Following forest fires, peak flows in perennial and ephemeral streams often increase by a factor of 10 or more. This increase in peak flow rate may overwhelm existing downstream structures, such as road culverts, causing serious damage to road fills at stream crossings. In order to predict peak flow rates following wildfires, we have applied two different tools. One is based on the U.S.D.A Natural Resource Conservation Service Curve Number Method (CN), and the other is by applying the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) to the watershed. In our presentation, we will describe the science behind the two methods, and present the main variables for each model. We will then provide an example of a comparison of the two methods to a fire-prone watershed upstream of the City of Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, where a fire spread model was applied for current fuel loads, and for likely fuel loads following a fuel reduction treatment. When applying the curve number method, determining the time to peak flow can be problematic for low severity fires because the runoff flow paths are both surface and through shallow lateral flow. The WEPP watershed version incorporates shallow lateral flow into stream channels. However, the version of the WEPP model that was used for this study did not have channel routing capabilities, but rather relied on regression relationships to estimate peak flows from individual hillslope polygon peak runoff rates. We found that the two methods gave similar results if applied correctly, with the WEPP predictions somewhat greater than the CN predictions. Later releases of the WEPP model have incorporated alternative methods for routing peak flows that need to be evaluated.

Laser plasma interaction at an early stage of laser ablation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Y. F.; Hong, M. H.; Low, T. S.

1999-03-01

Laser scattering and its interaction with plasma during KrF excimer laser ablation of silicon are investigated by ultrafast phototube detection. There are two peaks in an optical signal with the first peak attributed to laser scattering and the second one to plasma generation. For laser fluence above 5.8 J/cm2, the second peak rises earlier to overlap with the first one. The optical signal is fitted by a pulse distribution for the scattered laser light and a drifted Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution with a center-of-mass velocity for the plasma. Peak amplitude and its arrival time, full width at half maximum (FWHM), starting time, and termination time of the profiles are studied for different laser fluences and detection angles. Laser pulse is scattered from both the substrate and the plasma with the latter part as a dominant factor during the laser ablation. Peak amplitude of the scattered laser signal increases but its FWHM decreases with the laser fluence. Angular distribution of the peak amplitude can be fitted with cosn θ(n=4) while the detection angle has no obvious influence on the FWHM. In addition, FWHM and peak amplitude of plasma signal increase with the laser fluence. However, starting time and peak arrival time of plasma signal reduce with the laser fluence. The time interval between plasma starting and scattered laser pulse termination is proposed as a quantitative parameter to characterize laser plasma interaction. Threshold fluence for the interaction is estimated to be 3.5 J/cm2. For laser fluence above 12.6 J/cm2, the plasma and scattered laser pulse distributions tend to saturate.

Site response and attenuation in the Puget Lowland, Washington State

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pratt, T.L.; Brocher, T.M.

2006-01-01

Simple spectral ratio (SSR) and horizontal-to-vertical (HN) site-response estimates at 47 sites in the Puget Lowland of Washington State document significant attenuation of 1.5- to 20-Hz shear waves within sedimentary basins there. Amplitudes of the horizontal components of shear-wave arrivals from three local earthquakes were used to compute SSRs with respect to the average of two bedrock sites and H/V spectral ratios with respect to the vertical component of the shear-wave arrivals at each site. SSR site-response curves at thick basin sites show peak amplifications of 2 to 6 at frequencies of 3 to 6 Hz, and decreasing spectra amplification with increasing frequency above 6 Hz. SSRs at nonbasin sites show a variety of shapes and larger resonance peaks. We attribute the spectral decay at frequencies above the amplification peak at basin sites to attenuation within the basin strata. Computing the frequency-independent, depth-dependent attenuation factor (Qs,int) from the SSR spectral decay between 2 and 20 Hz gives values of 5 to 40 for shallow sedimentary deposits and about 250 for the deepest sedimentary strata (7 km depth). H/V site responses show less spectral decay than the SSR responses but contain many of the same resonance peaks. We hypothesize that the H/V method yields a flatter response across the frequency spectrum than SSRs because the H/V reference signal (vertical component of the shear-wave arrivals) has undergone a degree of attenuation similar to the horizontal component recordings. Correcting the SSR site responses for attenuation within the basins by removing the spectral decay improves agreement between SSR and H/V estimates.

Agreement Between VO2peak Predicted From PACER and One-Mile Run Time-Equated Laps.

PubMed

Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Anderson, Katelin; Bai, Yang; Welk, Gregory J

2016-12-01

This study examined the agreement between estimated peak oxygen consumption (VO 2peak ) obtained from the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) fitness test and equated PACER laps derived from One-Mile Run time (MR). A sample of 680 participants (324 boys and 356 girls) in Grades 7 through 12 completed both the PACER and the MR assessments. MR time was converted to PACER laps (PACER-MEQ) using previously developed conversion algorithms. Agreement between PACER and PACER-MEQ VO 2peak was examined using Pearson correlations, mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and equivalence testing procedures. Classification agreement based on health-related standards was examined using sensitivity, specificity, and Kappa statistics. Overall agreement between estimated VO 2peak obtained from the PACER and PACER-MEQ was high in boys, r(324) = .79, R 2  = .63, and moderate in girls, r(356) = .57, R 2  = .33. The MAPE for estimates obtained from PACER-MEQ was 10.3% and estimates were deemed equivalent to the PACER (43.1 ± 6.9 mL/kg/min vs. 44.6 ± 0.3 mL/kg/min). Classification agreement as illustrated by sensitivity and specificity ranged from 20.4% to 90.2% and was higher for classifications in the Healthy Fitness Zone (HFZ). Kappa statistics ranged from .14 to .51 and were also higher for the HFZ. Equated PACER laps can be used to obtain equivalent estimates of PACER VO 2peak in groups of adolescents, but some disparities can be found when students' scores are classified into the Needs Improvement Zone.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Piru, Simi, and Verdale Fires of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2003-01-01

These maps present preliminary assessments of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris-flows issuing from basins burned by the Piru, Simi and Verdale Fires of October 2003 in southern California in response to the 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year 1-hour rain storms. The probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple regression model that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients and storm rainfall. The peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Piru Fire range between 2 and 94% and estimates of debris flow peak discharges range between 1,200 and 6,640 ft3/s (34 to 188 m3/s). Basins burned by the Simi Fire show probabilities for debris-flow occurrence between 1 and 98%, and peak discharge estimates between 1,130 and 6,180 ft3/s (32 and 175 m3/s). The probabilities for debris-flow activity calculated for the Verdale Fire range from negligible values to 13%. Peak discharges were not estimated for this fire because of these low probabilities. These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Estimation of peak discharge quantiles for selected annual exceedance probabilities in Northeastern Illinois.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

This report provides two sets of equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, : 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years,...

An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huizinga, Richard J.

2014-01-01

The rainfall-runoff pairs from the storm-specific GUH analysis were further analyzed against various basin and rainfall characteristics to develop equations to estimate the peak streamflow and flood volume based on a quantity of rainfall on the basin.

Estimating an Impedance-to-Flow Parameter for Flood Peak Prediction in Semi-Arid Watersheds 1997

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The time of concentration equation used in Pima County, Arizona, includes a hydrologic parameter representing the impedance to flow for peak discharge estimation on small (<10 mi2) semiarid watersheds. The impedance-to-flow parameter is similar in function to the hydraulic Manning’s n roughness coef...

Traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in Illinois streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graf, J.B.

1984-01-01

Twenty-seven measurements of traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in 10 Illinois streams provide data needed for estimating traveltime of peak concentration of a conservative solute, traveltime of the leading edge of a solute cloud, peak concentration resulting from a given quantity of solute, and passage time of solute past a given point on a stream for both measured and unmeasured streams. Traveltime of peak concentration and of the leading edge of the cloud are related to discharge at the downstream end of the reach, distance of travel, and the fraction of the time that discharge at a given location on the stream is equaled or exceeded. Peak concentration and passage time are best estimated from the relation of each to traveltime. In measured streams, dispersion efficiency is greater than that predicted by Fickian diffusion theory. The rate of decrease in peak concentration with traveltime is about equal to the rate of increase in passage time. Average velocity in a stream reach, given by the velocity of the center of solute mass in that reach, also can be estimated from an equation developed from measured values. (USGS)

Quantifying Uncertainty in Daily Temporal Variations of Atmospheric NH3 Emissions Following Application of Chemical Fertilizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, S.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.; Rood, M. J.

2014-12-01

Improving modeling predictions of atmospheric particulate matter and deposition of reactive nitrogen requires representative emission inventories of precursor species, such as ammonia (NH3). Anthropogenic NH3 is primarily emitted to the atmosphere from agricultural sources (80-90%) with dominant contributions (56%) from chemical fertilizer usage (CFU) in regions like Midwest USA. Local crop management practices vary spatially and temporally, which influence regional air quality. To model the impact of CFU, NH3 emission inputs to chemical transport models are obtained from the National Emission Inventory (NEI). NH3 emissions from CFU are typically estimated by combining annual fertilizer sales data with emission factors. The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model is used to disaggregate annual emissions to hourly scale using temporal factors. These factors are estimated by apportioning emissions within each crop season in proportion to the nitrogen applied and time-averaged to the hourly scale. Such approach does not reflect influence of CFU for different crops and local weather and soil conditions. This study provides an alternate approach for estimating temporal factors for NH3 emissions. The DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model was used to estimate daily variations in NH3 emissions from CFU at 14 Central Illinois locations for 2002-2011. Weather, crop and soil data were provided as inputs. A method was developed to estimate site level CFU by combining planting and harvesting dates, nitrogen management and fertilizer sales data. DNDC results indicated that annual NH3 emissions were within ±15% of SMOKE estimates. Daily modeled emissions across 10 years followed similar distributions but varied in magnitudes within ±20%. Individual emission peaks on days after CFU were 2.5-8 times greater as compared to existing estimates from SMOKE. By identifying the episodic nature of NH3 emissions from CFU, this study is expected to provide improvements in predicting atmospheric particulate matter concentrations and deposition of reactive nitrogen.

Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2009-01-01

Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed characteristics of drainage area, dimensionless main-channel slope, and mean annual precipitation. The residuals of the nine equations are spatially mapped, and residuals for the 10-year recurrence interval are selected for generalization to 1-degree latitude and longitude quadrangles. The generalized residual is referred to as the OmegaEM parameter and represents a generalized terrain and climate index that expresses peak-streamflow potential not otherwise represented in the three watershed characteristics. The OmegaEM parameter was assigned to each station, and using OmegaEM, nine additional regression equations are computed. Because of favorable diagnostics, the OmegaEM equations are expected to be generally reliable estimators of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped and ungaged stream locations in Texas. The mean residual standard error, adjusted R-squared, and percentage reduction of PRESS by use of OmegaEM are 0.30log10, 0.86, and -21 percent, respectively. Inclusion of the OmegaEM parameter provides a substantial reduction in the PRESS statistic of the regression equations and removes considerable spatial dependency in regression residuals. Although the OmegaEM parameter requires interpretation on the part of analysts and the potential exists that different analysts could estimate different values for a given watershed, the authors suggest that typical uncertainty in the OmegaEM estimate might be about +or-0.1010. Finally, given the two ensembles of equations reported herein and those in previous reports, hydrologic design engineers and other analysts have several different methods, which represent different analytical tracks, to make comparisons of peak-streamflow frequency estimates for ungaged watersheds in the study area.

500-m and 1000-m moderate walks equally assess cardiorespiratory fitness in male outpatients with cardiovascular diseases.

PubMed

Mazzoni, Gianni; Chiaranda, Giorgio; Myers, Jonathan; Sassone, Biagio; Pasanisi, Giovanni; Mandini, Simona; Volpato, Stefano; Conconi, Francesco; Grazzi, Giovanni

2017-09-29

The walking speed maintained during a moderate 1-km treadmill walk (1k-TWT) has been demonstrated to be a valid tool for estimating peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak), and to be inversely related to long-term survival and hospitalization in outpatients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to examine whether 500-m and 1-k moderate treadmill-walking tests equally estimate VO2peak in male outpatients with CVD. 142 clinically stable male outpatients with CVD, aged 34-92 years, referred to an exercise-based secondary prevention program, performed a moderate and perceptually-regulated (11-13/20 on the Borg scale) 1k- TWT. Age, height, weight, time to walk 500-m and the entire 1000-m, and the corresponding heart rates were entered into validated equations to estimate VO2peak. VO2peak estimated from the 500-m test was not different from that estimated from the 1k test (25.2±5.1 vs 25.1±5.2 mL/kg/min). The correlation coefficient between the two was 0.98. The slope and the intercept of the relationship between the 500-m and 1k tests were not different from the line of identity. Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that 96% of the data points were within two standard deviations (from -1.9 to 1.7 mL/kg/min). The 500-m treadmill-walking test is a reliable method for estimating VO2peak in stable male outpatients with CVD. A shorter version of the test, 500-m, provides similar information as that from the original 1k test, but is more time efficient. These findings have practical implications in the context of transitioning patients from clinically based and supervised programs to fitness facilities or self-guided exercise programs.

Estimates of Flow Duration, Mean Flow, and Peak-Discharge Frequency Values for Kansas Stream Locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.; Wolock, David M.; Artman, Joshua C.

2004-01-01

Streamflow statistics of flow duration and peak-discharge frequency were estimated for 4,771 individual locations on streams listed on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. These statistics included the flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent, as well as the mean flow value. Peak-discharge frequency values were estimated for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods. Least-squares multiple regression techniques were used, along with Tobit analyses, to develop equations for estimating flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent and the mean flow for uncontrolled flow stream locations. The contributing-drainage areas of 149 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kansas and parts of surrounding States that had flow uncontrolled by Federal reservoirs and used in the regression analyses ranged from 2.06 to 12,004 square miles. Logarithmic transformations of climatic and basin data were performed to yield the best linear relation for developing equations to compute flow durations and mean flow. In the regression analyses, the significant climatic and basin characteristics, in order of importance, were contributing-drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean basin permeability, and mean basin slope. The analyses yielded a model standard error of prediction range of 0.43 logarithmic units for the 90-percent duration analysis to 0.15 logarithmic units for the 10-percent duration analysis. The model standard error of prediction was 0.14 logarithmic units for the mean flow. Regression equations used to estimate peak-discharge frequency values were obtained from a previous report, and estimates for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods were determined for this report. The regression equations and an interpolation procedure were used to compute flow durations, mean flow, and estimates of peak-discharge frequency for locations along uncontrolled flow streams on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. Flow durations, mean flow, and peak-discharge frequency values determined at available gaging stations were used to interpolate the regression-estimated flows for the stream locations where available. Streamflow statistics for locations that had uncontrolled flow were interpolated using data from gaging stations weighted according to the drainage area and the bias between the regression-estimated and gaged flow information. On controlled reaches of Kansas streams, the streamflow statistics were interpolated between gaging stations using only gaged data weighted by drainage area.

Flood of April 2007 and Flood-Frequency Estimates at Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Western Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2009-01-01

A spring nor'easter affected the East Coast of the United States from April 15 to 18, 2007. In Connecticut, rainfall varied from 3 inches to more than 7 inches. The combined effects of heavy rainfall over a short duration, high winds, and high tides led to widespread flooding, storm damage, power outages, evacuations, and disruptions to traffic and commerce. The storm caused at least 18 fatalities (none in Connecticut). A Presidential Disaster Declaration was issued on May 11, 2007, for two counties in western Connecticut - Fairfield and Litchfield. This report documents hydrologic and meteorologic aspects of the April 2007 flood and includes estimates of the magnitude of the peak discharges and peak stages during the flood at 28 streamflow-gaging stations in western Connecticut. These data were used to perform flood-frequency analyses. Flood-frequency estimates provided in this report are expressed in terms of exceedance probabilities (the probability of a flood reaching or exceeding a particular magnitude in any year). Flood-frequency estimates for the 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 exceedance probabilities (also expressed as 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2- percent exceedance probability, respectively) were computed for 24 of the 28 streamflow-gaging stations. Exceedance probabilities can further be expressed in terms of recurrence intervals (2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval, respectively). Flood-frequency estimates computed in this study were compared to the flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles in previously published Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Studies. The estimates in this report update and supersede previously published flood-frequency estimates for streamflowgaging stations in Connecticut by incorporating additional years of annual peak discharges, including the peaks for the April 2007 flood. In the southwest coastal region of Connecticut, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1955 were the second highest peak discharges on record; the 1955 annual peak discharges are the highest peak discharges in the station records. In the Housatonic and South Central Coast Basins, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1930 or earlier ranked between the fourth and eighth highest discharges on record, with the 1936, 1938, and 1955 floods as the largest floods in the station records. The peak discharges for the April 2007 flood have exceedance probabilities ranging between 0.10 to 0.02 (a 10- to 2-percent chance of being exceeded in a given year, respectively) with the majority (80 percent) of the stations having exceedance probabilities between 0.10 to 0.04. At three stations - Norwalk River at South Wilton, Pootatuck River at Sandy Hook, and Still River at Robertsville - the April 2007 peak discharges have an exceedance probability of 0.02. Flood-frequency estimates made after the April 2007 flood were compared to flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles (also called flood profiles) in FEMA Flood Insurance Studies developed for communities. In general, the comparison indicated that at the 0.10 exceedance probability (a 10-percent change of being exceeded in a given year), the discharges from the current (2007) flood-frequency analysis are larger than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about +10 percent. In contrast, at the 0.01 exceedance probability (a 1-percent change of being exceeded in a year), the discharges from the current flood-frequency analysis are smaller than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about -13 percent. Several stations had more than + 25 percent change in discharges at the 0.10 exceedance probability and are in the following communities: Winchester (Still River at Robertsv

Estimating BrAC from transdermal alcohol concentration data using the BrAC estimator software program.

PubMed

Luczak, Susan E; Rosen, I Gary

2014-08-01

Transdermal alcohol sensor (TAS) devices have the potential to allow researchers and clinicians to unobtrusively collect naturalistic drinking data for weeks at a time, but the transdermal alcohol concentration (TAC) data these devices produce do not consistently correspond with breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) data. We present and test the BrAC Estimator software, a program designed to produce individualized estimates of BrAC from TAC data by fitting mathematical models to a specific person wearing a specific TAS device. Two TAS devices were worn simultaneously by 1 participant for 18 days. The trial began with a laboratory alcohol session to calibrate the model and was followed by a field trial with 10 drinking episodes. Model parameter estimates and fit indices were compared across drinking episodes to examine the calibration phase of the software. Software-generated estimates of peak BrAC, time of peak BrAC, and area under the BrAC curve were compared with breath analyzer data to examine the estimation phase of the software. In this single-subject design with breath analyzer peak BrAC scores ranging from 0.013 to 0.057, the software created consistent models for the 2 TAS devices, despite differences in raw TAC data, and was able to compensate for the attenuation of peak BrAC and latency of the time of peak BrAC that are typically observed in TAC data. This software program represents an important initial step for making it possible for non mathematician researchers and clinicians to obtain estimates of BrAC from TAC data in naturalistic drinking environments. Future research with more participants and greater variation in alcohol consumption levels and patterns, as well as examination of gain scheduling calibration procedures and nonlinear models of diffusion, will help to determine how precise these software models can become. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2006-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction for a peak discharge have a recurrence interval of 100-years for region 8 was 53 percent (average) for the 100-year flood. The average standard of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 45 to 83 percent for the 100-year flood. Estimated standard error of prediction for a hybrid method for region 11 was large in the 1997 investigation. No distinction of floods produced from a high-elevation region was presented in the 1997 investigation. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are considered to be more reliable than those in the 1997 report because of the increased length of record and improved GIS method. Techniques for transferring flood-frequency relations to ungaged sites on the same stream can be estimated at an ungaged site by a direct application of the regional regression equation or at an ungaged site on a stream that has a gaging station upstream or downstream by using the drainage-area ratio and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region.

Thermoluminescence of quartz collected from Nojima Fault Trench excavated in 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasebe, N.; Miura, K.; Ganzawa, Y.; Tagami, T.; Lin, A.

2017-12-01

The Southern Hyogo prefecture earthquake occurred in 1995, which is known as Kobe Earthquake or Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, was caused by the activity of the Nojima fault.　The research project on the Nojima fault is currently going on and new trench was excavated in 2015. We investigate the effect of fault activity on surrounding rocks by thermoluminescence (TL) dating method. First, quartz were extracted from samples collected from the trench wall with different distance from the fault. A block of nearby basement rock is also collected and analyzed. Next, the luminescence sites and their emission temperatures were determined by T-Tmax method (McKeever, 1980) perfomed by 10 ° C interval for selected samples (the basement rock collected from Rokko granite, the granite sample collected about 5 m away from the fault in the trench, and the gouge sample adjacent to the fault). As a result, the peak emission temperatures were 200-220 ° C, 270 ° C and 320-350 ° C for granite quartz. These values were concordant for UV-TL and Blue TL. The activation energy and frequency factors were determined for signals emitted at different temperatures by peak shift methods (Aitken, 1985). On the other hand, the TL emission curves for the sample adjacent to the fault do not show discrete luminescence sites, different from granite samples. Natural TL emission show variety of TL profile. The accumulated doses of each sample were estimated for identified signal peaks after peak separation. Signals from different peak temperatures show different dose values in all the samples. The dose estimated by signals at 200 ° showed the minimum value for all samples. The same sample show different accumulated dose for Blue TL and UV-TL. The variety of accumulated doses in a sample may be reflective of complex thermal history of samples, and/or partly caused by the ineffective peak separation. Even the host rock collected away from the fault show a low accumulated dose in 200°C singnal, far less than the expected saturated value. Further investigation is important to fully understand the meaning of obtained data.

Bulk Lorentz factors of gamma-ray bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghirlanda, G.; Nappo, F.; Ghisellini, G.; Melandri, A.; Marcarini, G.; Nava, L.; Salafia, O. S.; Campana, S.; Salvaterra, R.

2018-01-01

Knowledge of the bulk Lorentz factor Γ0 of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) allows us to compute their comoving frame properties shedding light on their physics. Upon collisions with the circumburst matter, the fireball of a GRB starts to decelerate, producing a peak or a break (depending on the circumburst density profile) in the light curve of the afterglow. Considering all bursts with known redshift and with an early coverage of their emission, we find 67 GRBs (including one short event) with a peak in their optical or GeV light curves at a time tp. For another 106 GRBs we set an upper limit tpUL. The measure of tp provides the bulk Lorentz factor Γ0 of the fireball before deceleration. We show that tp is due to the dynamics of the fireball deceleration and not to the passage of a characteristic frequency of the synchrotron spectrum across the optical band. Considering the tp of 66 long GRBs and the 85 most constraining upper limits, we estimate Γ0 or a lower limit Γ0LL. Using censored data analysis methods, we reconstruct the most likely distribution of tp. All tp are larger than the time Tp,γ when the prompt γ-ray emission peaks, and are much larger than the time Tph when the fireball becomes transparent, that is, tp>Tp,γ>Tph. The reconstructed distribution of Γ0 has median value 300 (150) for a uniform (wind) circumburst density profile. In the comoving frame, long GRBs have typical isotropic energy, luminosity, and peak energy ⟨ Eiso ⟩ = 3(8) × 1050 erg, ⟨ Liso ⟩ = 3(15) × 1047 erg s-1, and ⟨ Epeak ⟩ = 1(2) keV in the homogeneous (wind) case. We confirm that the significant correlations between Γ0 and the rest frame isotropic energy (Eiso), luminosity (Liso), and peak energy (Ep) are not due to selection effects. When combined, they lead to the observed Ep-Eiso and Ep-Liso correlations. Finally, assuming a typical opening angle of 5 degrees, we derive the distribution of the jet baryon loading which is centered around a few 10-6M⊙.

Application of the precipitation-runoff modeling system to the Ah- shi-sle-pah Wash watershed, San Juan County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hejl, H.R.

1989-01-01

The precipitation-runoff modeling system was applied to the 8.21 sq-mi drainage area of the Ah-shi-sle-pah Wash watershed in northwestern New Mexico. The calibration periods were May to September of 1981 and 1982, and the verification period was May to September 1983. Twelve storms were available for calibration and 8 storms were available for verification. For calibration A (hydraulic conductivity estimated from onsite data and other storm-mode parameters optimized), the computed standard error of estimate was 50% for runoff volumes and 72% of peak discharges. Calibration B included hydraulic conductivity in the optimization, which reduced the standard error of estimate to 28 % for runoff volumes and 50% for peak discharges. Optimized values for hydraulic conductivity resulted in reductions from 1.00 to 0.26 in/h and 0.20 to 0.03 in/h for the 2 general soils groups in the calibrations. Simulated runoff volumes using 7 of 8 storms occurring during the verification period had a standard error of estimate of 40% for verification A and 38% for verification B. Simulated peak discharge had a standard error of estimate of 120% for verification A and 56% for verification B. Including the eighth storm which had a relatively small magnitude in the verification analysis more than doubled the standard error of estimating volumes and peaks. (USGS)

Relation of local scour to hydraulic properties at selected bridges in New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butch, Gerard K.; ,

1993-01-01

Hydraulic properties, bridge geometry, and basin characteristics at 31 bridges in New York are being investigated to identify factors that affect local scour. Streambed elevations measured by the U.S. Geological Survey and New York State Department of Transportation are used to estimate local-scour depth. Data that show zero or minor scour were included in the analysis to decrease bias and to estimate hydraulic properties related to local scour. The maximum measured local scour at the 31 bridges for a single peak flow was 5.4 feet, but the deepening of scour holes at two sites to 6.1 feet and 7.8 feet by multiple peak flows could indicate that the number or duration of high flows is a factor. Local scour at a pier generally increased as the recurrence interval (magnitude) of the discharge increased, but the correlation between local-scour depth and recurrence interval was inconsistent among study sites. For example, flows with a 2-year recurrence interval produced 2 feet of local scour at two sites, whereas a flow with a recurrence interval produced 2 feet of local scour at two sites, whereas a flow with a recurrence interval of 50 years produced only 0.5 feet of local scour at another site. Local-scour depth increased with water depth, stream velocity, and Reynolds number but did not correlate well with bed-material size, Froude number, pier geometry, friction slope, or several other hydraulic and basin characteristics.

Lightning Characteristics and Lightning Strike Peak Current Probabilities as Related to Aerospace Vehicle Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.

1998-01-01

A summary is presented of basic lightning characteristics/criteria for current and future NASA aerospace vehicles. The paper estimates the probability of occurrence of a 200 kA peak lightning return current, should lightning strike an aerospace vehicle in various operational phases, i.e., roll-out, on-pad, launch, reenter/land, and return-to-launch site. A literature search was conducted for previous work concerning occurrence and measurement of peak lighting currents, modeling, and estimating probabilities of launch vehicles/objects being struck by lightning. This paper presents these results.

The mean intensity of radiation at 2 microns in the solar neighborhood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jura, M.

1979-01-01

Consideration is given to the value of the mean intensity at 2 microns in the solar neighborhood, and it is found that it is likely to be a factor of four greater than previously estimated on theoretical grounds. It is noted however, that the estimate does agree with a reasonable extrapolation of the results of the survey of the Galactic plane by the Japanese group. It is concluded that the mean intensity in the solar neighborhood therefore probably peaks somewhat longward of 1 micron, and that this result is important for understanding the temperature of interstellar dust and the intensity of the far infrared background. This means specifically that dark clouds probably emit significantly more far infrared radiation than previously predicted.

Addressing Postsecondary Access for Undocumented Students. ECS Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Lexi

2015-01-01

In 2012, there were an estimated 11.2 million undocumented individuals living in the United States. The peak of unauthorized immigrant population occurred in 2007 with 12.2 million, a stark rise from original estimates of 3.5 million in 1990. Although down from its peak, a sizeable and stable population of unauthorized individuals resides in the…

Coupling hydrologic and hydraulic models to take into consideration retention effects on extreme peak discharges in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-04-01

Estimating peak discharges with very low probabilities is still accompanied by large uncertainties. Common estimation methods are usually based on extreme value statistics applied to observed time series or to hydrological model outputs. However, such methods assume the system to be stationary and do not specifically consider non-stationary effects. Observed time series may exclude events where peak discharge is damped by retention effects, as this process does not occur until specific thresholds, possibly beyond those of the highest measured event, are exceeded. Hydrological models can be complemented and parameterized with non-linear functions. However, in such cases calibration depends on observed data and non-stationary behaviour is not deterministically calculated. Our study discusses the option of considering retention effects on extreme peak discharges by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models. This possibility is tested by forcing the semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model PREVAH with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). The procedure ensures that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit given by the riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered.

Diurnal variations in optical depth at Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colburn, D. S.; Pollack, J. B.; Haberle, R. M.

1989-01-01

Viking lander camera images of the Sun were used to compute atmospheric optical depth at two sites over a period of 1 to 1/3 martian years. The complete set of 1044 optical depth determinations is presented in graphical and tabular form. Error estimates are presented in detail. Otpical depths in the morning (AM) are generally larger than in the afternoon (PM). The AM-PM differences are ascribed to condensation of water vapor into atmospheric ice aerosols at night and their evaporation in midday. A smoothed time series of these differences shows several seasonal peaks. These are simulated using a one-dimensional radiative convective model which predicts martial atmospheric temperature profiles. A calculation combinig these profiles with water vapor measurements from the Mars Atmospheric Water Detector is used to predict when the diurnal variations of water condensation should occur. The model reproduces a majority of the observed peaks and shows the factors influencing the process. Diurnal variation of condensation is shown to peak when the latitude and season combine to warm the atmosphere to the optimum temperature, cool enough to condense vapor at night and warm enough to cause evaporation at midday.

Two-dimensional velocity, optical risetime, and peak current estimates for natural positive lightning return strokes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, Douglas M.; Rust, W. D.

1993-01-01

Velocities, optical risetimes, and transmission line model peak currents for seven natural positive return strokes are reported. The average 2D positive return stroke velocity for channel segments of less than 500 m in length starting near the base of the channel is 0.8 +/- 0.3 x 10 exp 8 m/s, which is slower than the present corresponding average velocity for natural negative first return strokes of 1.7 +/- 0.7 x 10 exp 8/s. It is inferred that positive stroke peak currents in the literature, which assume the same velocity as negative strokes, are low by a factor of 2. The average 2D positive return stroke velocity for channel segments of greater than 500 m starting near the base of the channel is 0.9 +/- 0.4 x 10 exp 8 m/s. The corresponding average velocity for the present natural negative first strokes is 1.2 +/- 0.6 x 10 exp 8 m/s. No significant velocity change with height is found for positive return strokes.

Noninvasive estimation of left atrial pressure in patients with congestive heart failure and mitral regurgitation by Doppler echocardiography.

PubMed

Gorcsan, J; Snow, F R; Paulsen, W; Nixon, J V

1991-03-01

A completely noninvasive method for estimating left atrial pressure in patients with congestive heart failure and mitral regurgitation has been devised with the use of continuous-wave Doppler echocardiography and brachial sphygmomanometry. Of 46 patients studied with mitral regurgitation, 35 (76%) had jets with distinct Doppler spectral envelopes recorded. The peak ventriculoatrial gradient was obtained by measuring peak mitral regurgitant velocity in systole and using the modified Bernoulli equation. This gradient was then subtracted from peak brachial systolic blood pressure, an estimate of left ventricular systolic pressure, to yield left atrial pressure (left atrial pressure = systolic blood pressure - mitral regurgitant pressure gradient). Noninvasive estimates of left atrial pressure from 35 patients were plotted against simultaneous recordings of mean pulmonary capillary wedge pressure resulting in the correlation y = 0.88x + 3.3, r = 0.88, standard error of estimate = +/- 4 mm Hg (p less than 0.001). Therefore, continuous-wave Doppler echocardiography and sphygmomanometry may be used in selected patients with congestive heart failure and mitral regurgitation for noninvasive estimation of left atrial pressure.

DOA estimation of noncircular signals for coprime linear array via locally reduced-dimensional Capon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Hui; Zhang, Xiaofei; Zheng, Wang

2018-05-01

We investigate the issue of direction of arrival (DOA) estimation of noncircular signals for coprime linear array (CLA). The noncircular property enhances the degree of freedom and improves angle estimation performance, but it leads to a more complex angle ambiguity problem. To eliminate ambiguity, we theoretically prove that the actual DOAs of noncircular signals can be uniquely estimated by finding the coincide results from the two decomposed subarrays based on the coprimeness. We propose a locally reduced-dimensional (RD) Capon algorithm for DOA estimation of noncircular signals for CLA. The RD processing is used in the proposed algorithm to avoid two dimensional (2D) spectral peak search, and coprimeness is employed to avoid the global spectral peak search. The proposed algorithm requires one-dimensional locally spectral peak search, and it has very low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm needs no prior knowledge of the number of sources. We also derive the Crámer-Rao bound of DOA estimation of noncircular signals in CLA. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the algorithm.

Access of Hydrogen-Radicals to the Peptide-Backbone as a Measure for Estimating the Flexibility of Proteins Using Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization Mass Spectrometry

PubMed Central

Takayama, Mitsuo; Nagoshi, Keishiro; Iimuro, Ryunosuke; Inatomi, Kazuma

2014-01-01

A factor for estimating the flexibility of proteins is described that uses a cleavage method of “in-source decay (ISD)” coupled with matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI MS). The MALDI-ISD spectra of bovine serum albumin (BSA), myoglobin and thioredoxin show discontinuous intense ion peaks originating from one-side preferential cleavage at the N-Cα bond of Xxx-Asp, Xxx-Asn, Xxx-Cys and Gly-Xxx residues. Consistent with these observations, Asp, Asn and Gly residues are also identified by other flexibility measures such as B-factor, turn preference, protection and fluorescence decay factors, while Asp, Asn, Cys and Gly residues are identified by turn preference factor based on X-ray crystallography. The results suggest that protein molecules embedded in/on MALDI matrix crystals partly maintain α-helix and that the reason some of the residues are more susceptible to ISD (Asp, Asn, Cys and Gly) and others less so (Ile and Val) is because of accessibility of the peptide backbone to hydrogen-radicals from matrix molecules. The hydrogen-radical accessibility in MALDI-ISD could therefore be adopted as a factor for measuring protein flexibility. PMID:24828203

DSN 70-meter antenna X- and S-band calibration. Part 1: Gain measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richter, P. H.; Slobin, S. D.

1989-01-01

Aperture efficiency measurements made during 1988 on the three 70-m stations (DSS-14, DSS-43, and DSS-63) at X-band (8420 MHz) and S-band (2295 MHz) have been analyzed and reduced to yield best estimates of antenna gain versus elevation. The analysis has been carried out by fitting the gain data to a theoretical expression based on the Ruze formula. Newly derived flux density and source-size correction factors for the natural radio calibration sources used in the measurements have been used in the reduction of the data. Peak gains measured at the three stations were 74.18 (plus or minus 0.10) dBi at X-band, and 63.34 (plus or minus 0.03) dBi at S-band, with corresponding peak aperture efficiencies of 0.687 (plus or minus 0.015) and 0.762 (plus or minus 0.006), respectively. The values quoted assume no atmosphere is present, and the estimated absolute accuracy of the gain measurements is approximately plus or minus 0.2 dB at X-band and plus or minus 0.1 dB at S-band (1-sigma values).

Bone-specific alkaline phosphatase - a potential biomarker for skeletal growth assessment.

PubMed

Tripathi, Tulika; Gupta, Prateek; Sharma, Jitender; Rai, Priyank; Gupta, Vinod Kumar; Singh, Navneet

2018-03-01

The present study was aimed to assess levels of serum Bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP) and serum Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and comparing with cervical vertebral maturation index (CVMI) stages. Cross-sectional study. Maulana Azad Institute of Dental Sciences, New Delhi, India. 150 subjects (75 males and 75 females) in the age group of 8-20 years. Subjects were divided into six CVMI stages. Enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay was performed for the estimation of serum BALP and serum IGF-1 levels. Mann-Whitney U test was performed to compare mean ranks of serum BALP and serum IGF-1 with different CVMI stages. Spearman correlation between serum BALP and serum IGF-1 was done across 6 CVMI stages. Peak serum IGF-1 levels were found at CVMI stages 4 and 3 for males and females respectively. Peak levels for serum BALP were found at stage 3 for both genders with significant differences from other stages. A statistically significant correlation was seen between serum IGF-1 and serum BALP from CVMI stages 1 to 3 and 4 to 6 (p < .01). BALP showed promising results and can be employed as a potential biomarker for the estimation of growth status.

A cavity ring-down spectroscopy sensor for real-time Hall thruster erosion measurements.

PubMed

Lee, B C; Huang, W; Tao, L; Yamamoto, N; Gallimore, A D; Yalin, A P

2014-05-01

A continuous-wave cavity ring-down spectroscopy sensor for real-time measurements of sputtered boron from Hall thrusters has been developed. The sensor uses a continuous-wave frequency-quadrupled diode laser at 250 nm to probe ground state atomic boron sputtered from the boron nitride insulating channel. Validation results from a controlled setup using an ion beam and target showed good agreement with a simple finite-element model. Application of the sensor for measurements of two Hall thrusters, the H6 and SPT-70, is described. The H6 was tested at power levels ranging from 1.5 to 10 kW. Peak boron densities of 10 ± 2 × 10(14) m(-3) were measured in the thruster plume, and the estimated eroded channel volume agreed within a factor of 2 of profilometry. The SPT-70 was tested at 600 and 660 W, yielding peak boron densities of 7.2 ± 1.1 × 10(14) m(-3), and the estimated erosion rate agreed within ~20% of profilometry. Technical challenges associated with operating a high-finesse cavity in the presence of energetic plasma are also discussed.

A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.

1997-01-01

We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/ D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?? > 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

van Gaalen, Rolina D; van de Kassteele, Jan; Hahné, Susan J M; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-07-01

Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

Kinematic arguments against single relativistic shell models for GRBs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fenimore, E.E.; Ramirez, E.; Sumner, M.C.

1997-09-01

Two main types of models have been suggested to explain the long durations and multiple peaks of Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs). In one, there is a very quick release of energy at a central site resulting in a single relativistic shell that produces peaks in the time history through its interactions with the ambient material. In the other, the central site sporadically releases energy over hundreds of seconds forming a peak with each burst of energy. The authors show that the average envelope of emission and the presence of gaps in GRBs are inconsistent with a single relativistic shell. Theymore » estimate that the maximum fraction of a single shell that can produce gamma-rays in a GRB with multiple peaks is 10{sup {minus}3}, implying that single relativistic shells require 10{sup 3} times more energy than previously thought. They conclude that either the central site of a GRB must produce {approx}10{sup 51} erg/s{sup {minus}1} for hundreds of seconds, or the relativistic shell must have structure on a scales the order of {radical}{epsilon}{Gamma}{sup {minus}1}, where {Gamma} is the bulk Lorentz factor ({approximately}10{sup 2} to 10{sup 3}) and {epsilon} is the efficiency.« less

Optical spectroscopy of the bladder washout fluid to optimize fluorescence cystoscopy with Hexvix®.

PubMed

Martoccia, Carla; Zellweger, Matthieu; Lovisa, Blaise; Jichlinski, Patrice; van den Bergh, Hubert; Wagnières, Georges

2014-09-01

Fluorescence cystoscopy enhances detection of early bladder cancer. Water used to inflate thebladder during the procedure rapidly contains urine, which may contain fluorochromes. This frequently degradesfluorescence images. Samples of bladder washout fluid (BWF) or urine were collected (15 subjects). We studiedtheir fluorescence properties and assessed changes induced by pH (4 to 9) and temperature (15°C to 41°C).A typical fluorescence spectrum of BWF features a main peak (excitation/emission: 320∕420 nm, FWHM =50∕100 nm) and a weaker (5% to 20% of main peak intensity), secondary peak (excitation/emission: 455∕525 nm, FWHM = 80∕50 nm). Interpatient fluctuations of fluorescence intensity are observed. Fluorescence intensity decreases when temperature increases (max 30%) or pH values vary (max 25%). Neither approach is compatible with clinical settings. Fluorescence lifetime measurements suggest that 4-pyridoxic acid/riboflavin is the most likely molecule responsible for urine’s main/secondary fluorescence peak. Our measurements give an insight into the spectroscopy of the detrimental background fluorescence. This should be included in the optical design of fluorescence cystoscopes. We estimate that restricting the excitation range from 370–430 nm to 395–415 nm would reduce the BWF background by a factor 2.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Baku City and Absheron Peninsula, Azerbaijan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babayev, Gulam R.

2006-03-23

This paper deals with the seismic hazard assessment for Baku and the Absheron peninsula. The assessment is based on the information on the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation (attenuation), and site effect. I analyze active faults, seismicity, soil and rock properties, geological cross-sections, the borehole data of measured shear-wave velocity, lithology, amplification factor of each geological unit, geomorphology, topography, and basic rock and surface ground motions. To estimate peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the surface, PGA at the basic rock is multiplied by the amplification parameter of each surface layers. Quaternary soft deposits, representing a highmore » risk due to increasing PGA values at surface, are studied in detail. For a near-zone target earthquake PGA values are compared to intensity at MSK-64 scale for the Absheron peninsula. The amplification factor for the Baku city is assessed and provides estimations for a level of a seismic motion and seismic intensity of the studied area.« less

Development of retrospective quantitative and qualitative job-exposure matrices for exposures at a beryllium processing facility.

PubMed

Couch, James R; Petersen, Martin; Rice, Carol; Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K

2011-05-01

To construct a job-exposure matrix (JEM) for an Ohio beryllium processing facility between 1953 and 2006 and to evaluate temporal changes in airborne beryllium exposures. Quantitative area- and breathing-zone-based exposure measurements of airborne beryllium were made between 1953 and 2006 and used by plant personnel to estimate daily weighted average (DWA) exposure concentrations for sampled departments and operations. These DWA measurements were used to create a JEM with 18 exposure metrics, which was linked to the plant cohort consisting of 18,568 unique job, department and year combinations. The exposure metrics ranged from quantitative metrics (annual arithmetic/geometric average DWA exposures, maximum DWA and peak exposures) to descriptive qualitative metrics (chemical beryllium species and physical form) to qualitative assignment of exposure to other risk factors (yes/no). Twelve collapsed job titles with long-term consistent industrial hygiene samples were evaluated using regression analysis for time trends in DWA estimates. Annual arithmetic mean DWA estimates (overall plant-wide exposures including administration, non-production, and production estimates) for the data by decade ranged from a high of 1.39 μg/m(3) in the 1950s to a low of 0.33 μg/m(3) in the 2000s. Of the 12 jobs evaluated for temporal trend, the average arithmetic DWA mean was 2.46 μg/m(3) and the average geometric mean DWA was 1.53 μg/m(3). After the DWA calculations were log-transformed, 11 of the 12 had a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decrease in reported exposure over time. The constructed JEM successfully differentiated beryllium exposures across jobs and over time. This is the only quantitative JEM containing exposure estimates (average and peak) for the entire plant history.

"Ersatz" and "hybrid" NMR spectral estimates using the filter diagonalization method.

PubMed

Ridge, Clark D; Shaka, A J

2009-03-12

The filter diagonalization method (FDM) is an efficient and elegant way to make a spectral estimate purely in terms of Lorentzian peaks. As NMR spectral peaks of liquids conform quite well to this model, the FDM spectral estimate can be accurate with far fewer time domain points than conventional discrete Fourier transform (DFT) processing. However, noise is not efficiently characterized by a finite number of Lorentzian peaks, or by any other analytical form, for that matter. As a result, noise can affect the FDM spectrum in different ways than it does the DFT spectrum, and the effect depends on the dimensionality of the spectrum. Regularization to suppress (or control) the influence of noise to give an "ersatz", or EFDM, spectrum is shown to sometimes miss weak features, prompting a more conservative implementation of filter diagonalization. The spectra obtained, called "hybrid" or HFDM spectra, are acquired by using regularized FDM to obtain an "infinite time" spectral estimate and then adding to it the difference between the DFT of the data and the finite time FDM estimate, over the same time interval. HFDM has a number of advantages compared to the EFDM spectra, where all features must be Lorentzian. They also show better resolution than DFT spectra. The HFDM spectrum is a reliable and robust way to try to extract more information from noisy, truncated data records and is less sensitive to the choice of regularization parameter. In multidimensional NMR of liquids, HFDM is a conservative way to handle the problems of noise, truncation, and spectral peaks that depart significantly from the model of a multidimensional Lorentzian peak.

Annual peak streamflow and ancillary data for small watersheds in central and western Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Asquith, William H.

2011-01-01

Estimates of annual peak-streamflow frequency are needed for flood-plain management, assessment of flood risk, and design of structures, such as roads, bridges, culverts, dams, and levees. Regional regression equations have been developed and are used extensively to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) watersheds in Texas (Asquith and Slade, 1997; Asquith and Thompson, 2008; Asquith and Roussel, 2009). The most recent regional regression equations were developed by using data from 638 Texas streamflow-gaging stations throughout the State with eight or more years of data by using drainage area, channel slope, and mean annual precipitation as predictor variables (Asquith and Roussel, 2009). However, because of a lack of sufficient historical streamflow data from small, rural watersheds in certain parts of the State (central and western), substantial uncertainity exists when using the regional regression equations for the purpose of estimating annual peak-streamflow frequency.

An evaluation of the utility and limitations of counting motor unit action potentials in the surface electromyogram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ping; Zev Rymer, William

2004-12-01

The number of motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) appearing in the surface electromyogram (EMG) signal is directly related to motor unit recruitment and firing rates and therefore offers potentially valuable information about the level of activation of the motoneuron pool. In this paper, based on morphological features of the surface MUAPs, we try to estimate the number of MUAPs present in the surface EMG by counting the negative peaks in the signal. Several signal processing procedures are applied to the surface EMG to facilitate this peak counting process. The MUAP number estimation performance by this approach is first illustrated using the surface EMG simulations. Then, by evaluating the peak counting results from the EMG records detected by a very selective surface electrode, at different contraction levels of the first dorsal interosseous (FDI) muscles, the utility and limitations of such direct peak counts for MUAP number estimation in surface EMG are further explored.

Picturing Data With Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kao, David; Love, Alison; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Pang, Alex

2004-01-01

NASA is in the business of creating maps for scientific purposes to represent important biophysical or geophysical quantities over space and time. For example, maps of surface temperature over the globe tell scientists where and when the Earth is heating up; regional maps of the greenness of vegetation tell scientists where and when plants are photosynthesizing. There is always uncertainty associated with each value in any such map due to various factors. When uncertainty is fully modeled, instead of a single value at each map location, there is a distribution expressing a set of possible outcomes at each location. We consider such distribution data as multi-valued data since it consists of a collection of values about a single variable. Thus, a multi-valued data represents both the map and its uncertainty. We have been working on ways to visualize spatial multi-valued data sets effectively for fields with regularly spaced units or grid cells such as those in NASA's Earth science applications. A new way to display distributions at multiple grid locations is to project the distributions from an individual row, column or other user-selectable straight transect from the 2D domain. First at each grid cell in a given slice (row, column or transect), we compute a smooth density estimate from the underlying data. Such a density estimate for the probability density function (PDF) is generally more useful than a histogram, which is a classic density estimate. Then, the collection of PDFs along a given slice are presented vertically above the slice and form a wall. To minimize occlusion of intersecting slices, the corresponding walls are positioned at the far edges of the boundary. The PDF wall depicts the shapes of the distributions very dearly since peaks represent the modes (or bumps) in the PDFs. We've defined roughness as the number of peaks in the distribution. Roughness is another useful summary information for multimodal distributions. The uncertainty of the multi-valued data can also be interpreted by the number of peaks and the widths of the peaks as shown by the PDF walls.

Feature selection and classifier parameters estimation for EEG signals peak detection using particle swarm optimization.

PubMed

Adam, Asrul; Shapiai, Mohd Ibrahim; Tumari, Mohd Zaidi Mohd; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Mubin, Marizan

2014-01-01

Electroencephalogram (EEG) signal peak detection is widely used in clinical applications. The peak point can be detected using several approaches, including time, frequency, time-frequency, and nonlinear domains depending on various peak features from several models. However, there is no study that provides the importance of every peak feature in contributing to a good and generalized model. In this study, feature selection and classifier parameters estimation based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) are proposed as a framework for peak detection on EEG signals in time domain analysis. Two versions of PSO are used in the study: (1) standard PSO and (2) random asynchronous particle swarm optimization (RA-PSO). The proposed framework tries to find the best combination of all the available features that offers good peak detection and a high classification rate from the results in the conducted experiments. The evaluation results indicate that the accuracy of the peak detection can be improved up to 99.90% and 98.59% for training and testing, respectively, as compared to the framework without feature selection adaptation. Additionally, the proposed framework based on RA-PSO offers a better and reliable classification rate as compared to standard PSO as it produces low variance model.

Traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in Illinois streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graf, Julia B.

1986-01-01

Twenty-seven measurements of traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in 10 Illinois streams made from 1975 to 1982 provide data needed for estimating traveltime of peak concentration of a conservative solute, traveltime of the leading edge of a solute cloud, peak concentration resulting from injection of a given quantity of solute, and passage time of solute past a given point on a stream. These four variables can be estimated graphically for each stream from distance of travel and either discharge at the downstream end of the reach or flow-duration frequency. From equations developed from field measurements, the traveltime and dispersion characteristics also can be estimated for other unregulated streams in Illinois that have drainage areas less than about 1,500 square miles. For unmeasured streams, traveltime of peak concentration and of the leading edge of the cloud are related to discharge at the downstream end of the reach and to distance of travel. For both measured and unmeasured streams, peak concentration and passage time are best estimated from the relation of each to traveltime. In measured streams, dispersion efficiency is greater than that predicted by Fickian diffusion theory. The rate of decrease in peak concentration with traveltime is about equal to the rate of increase in passage time. Average velocity in a stream reach, given by the velocity of the center of solute mass in that reach, can be estimated from an equation developed from measured values. The equation relates average reach velocity to discharge at the downstream end of the reach. Average reach velocities computed for 9 of the 10 streams from available equations that are based on hydraulic-geometry relations are high relative to measured values. The estimating equation developed from measured velocities provides estimates of average reach velocity that are closer to measured velocities than are those computed using equations developed from hydraulic-geometry relations.

Using Caspar Creek flow records to test peak flow estimation methods applicable to crossing design

Treesearch

Peter H. Cafferata; Leslie M. Reid

2017-01-01

Long-term flow records from sub-watersheds in the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds were used to test the accuracy of four methods commonly used to estimate peak flows in small forested watersheds: the Rational Method, the updated USGS Magnitude and Frequency Method, flow transference methods, and the NRCS curve number method. Comparison of measured and calculated...

Time-Domain Receiver Function Deconvolution using Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, L. P.

2017-12-01

Receiver Functions (RF) are well know method for crust modelling using passive seismological signals. Many different techniques were developed to calculate the RF traces, applying the deconvolution calculation to radial and vertical seismogram components. A popular method used a spectral division of both components, which requires human intervention to apply the Water Level procedure to avoid instabilities from division by small numbers. One of most used method is an iterative procedure to estimate the RF peaks and applying the convolution with vertical component seismogram, comparing the result with the radial component. This method is suitable for automatic processing, however several RF traces are invalid due to peak estimation failure.In this work it is proposed a deconvolution algorithm using Genetic Algorithm (GA) to estimate the RF peaks. This method is entirely processed in the time domain, avoiding the time-to-frequency calculations (and vice-versa), and totally suitable for automatic processing. Estimated peaks can be used to generate RF traces in a seismogram format for visualization. The RF trace quality is similar for high magnitude events, although there are less failures for RF calculation of smaller events, increasing the overall performance for high number of events per station.

Probable flood predictions in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.; Smith, M.E.; Chica, A.M.E.; Litke, D.

2008-01-01

A regionalization procedure is presented and used to predict probable flooding in four ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. The flood-prediction problem is sequentially solved for two regions: upstream mountains and downstream alluvial plains. In the upstream mountains, a set of rainfall-runoff parameter values and recurrent peak-flow discharge hydrographs are simultaneously estimated for 20 tributary-basin models. Application of dissimilarity equations among tributary basins (soft prior information) permitted development of a parsimonious parameter structure subject to information content in the recurrent peak-flow discharge values derived using regression equations based on measurements recorded outside the ungauged study basins. The estimated joint set of parameter values formed the basis from which probable minimum and maximum peak-flow discharge limits were then estimated revealing that prediction uncertainty increases with basin size. In the downstream alluvial plain, model application of the estimated minimum and maximum peak-flow hydrographs facilitated simulation of probable 100-year flood-flow depths in confined canyons and across unconfined coastal alluvial plains. The regionalization procedure provides a tool for hydrologic risk assessment and flood protection planning that is not restricted to the case presented herein. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Review and Analysis of Peak Tracking Techniques for Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors are among the most popular elements for fiber optic sensor networks used for the direct measurement of temperature and strain. Modern FBG interrogation setups measure the FBG spectrum in real-time, and determine the shift of the Bragg wavelength of the FBG in order to estimate the physical parameters. The problem of determining the peak wavelength of the FBG from a spectral measurement limited in resolution and noise, is referred as the peak-tracking problem. In this work, the several peak-tracking approaches are reviewed and classified, outlining their algorithmic implementations: the methods based on direct estimation, interpolation, correlation, resampling, transforms, and optimization are discussed in all their proposed implementations. Then, a simulation based on coupled-mode theory compares the performance of the main peak-tracking methods, in terms of accuracy and signal to noise ratio resilience. PMID:29039804

Amplification of postwildfire peak flow by debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kean, J. W.; McGuire, L. A.; Rengers, F. K.; Smith, J. B.; Staley, D. M.

2016-08-01

In burned steeplands, the peak depth and discharge of postwildfire runoff can substantially increase from the addition of debris. Yet methods to estimate the increase over water flow are lacking. We quantified the potential amplification of peak stage and discharge using video observations of postwildfire runoff, compiled data on postwildfire peak flow (Qp), and a physically based model. Comparison of flood and debris flow data with similar distributions in drainage area (A) and rainfall intensity (I) showed that the median runoff coefficient (C = Qp/AI) of debris flows is 50 times greater than that of floods. The striking increase in Qp can be explained using a fully predictive model that describes the additional flow resistance caused by the emergence of coarse-grained surge fronts. The model provides estimates of the amplification of peak depth, discharge, and shear stress needed for assessing postwildfire hazards and constraining models of bedrock incision.

Amplification of postwildfire peak flow by debris

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kean, Jason W.; McGuire, Luke; Rengers, Francis K.; Smith, Joel B.; Staley, Dennis M.

2016-01-01

In burned steeplands, the peak depth and discharge of postwildfire runoff can substantially increase from the addition of debris. Yet methods to estimate the increase over water flow are lacking. We quantified the potential amplification of peak stage and discharge using video observations of postwildfire runoff, compiled data on postwildfire peak flow (Qp), and a physically based model. Comparison of flood and debris flow data with similar distributions in drainage area (A) and rainfall intensity (I) showed that the median runoff coefficient (C = Qp/AI) of debris flows is 50 times greater than that of floods. The striking increase in Qp can be explained using a fully predictive model that describes the additional flow resistance caused by the emergence of coarse-grained surge fronts. The model provides estimates of the amplification of peak depth, discharge, and shear stress needed for assessing postwildfire hazards and constraining models of bedrock incision.

Multiple Input Design for Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene

2003-01-01

A method for designing multiple inputs for real-time dynamic system identification in the frequency domain was developed and demonstrated. The designed inputs are mutually orthogonal in both the time and frequency domains, with reduced peak factors to provide good information content for relatively small amplitude excursions. The inputs are designed for selected frequency ranges, and therefore do not require a priori models. The experiment design approach was applied to identify linear dynamic models for the F-15 ACTIVE aircraft, which has multiple control effectors.

Novel angle estimation for bistatic MIMO radar using an improved MUSIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianfeng; Zhang, Xiaofei; Chen, Han

2014-09-01

In this article, we study the problem of angle estimation for bistatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar and propose an improved multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm for joint direction of departure (DOD) and direction of arrival (DOA) estimation. The proposed algorithm obtains initial estimations of angles obtained from the signal subspace and uses the local one-dimensional peak searches to achieve the joint estimations of DOD and DOA. The angle estimation performance of the proposed algorithm is better than that of estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT) algorithm, and is almost the same as that of two-dimensional MUSIC. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm can be suitable for irregular array geometry, obtain automatically paired DOD and DOA estimations, and avoid two-dimensional peak searching. The simulation results verify the effectiveness and improvement of the algorithm.

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide in victims with and without prior history of hospitalization for mood disorders.

PubMed

Postolache, Teodor T; Mortensen, Preben B; Tonelli, Leonardo H; Jiao, Xiaolong; Frangakis, Constantin; Soriano, Joseph J; Qin, Ping

2010-02-01

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide are highly replicated, but their origin is poorly understood. As the peak of suicide in spring could be a consequence of decompensation of mood disorders in spring, we hypothesized that prior history of mood disorders is predictively associated with suicide in spring. We analyzed the monthly rates of suicide based upon all 37,987 suicide cases in the Danish Cause of Death Registry from 1970 to 2001. History of mood disorder was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register and socioeconomical data from the Integrated Database for Labour Market Research. The monthly rate ratio of suicide relative to December was estimated using a Poisson regression. Seasonality of suicide between individuals with versus without hospitalization for mood disorders was compared using conditional logistic regression analyses with adjustment for income, marital status, place of residence, and method of suicide. A statistically significant spring peak in suicide was observed in both groups. A history of mood disorders was associated with an increased risk of suicide in spring (for males: RR=1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.31; for females: RR=1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.32). History of axis II disorders was not analyzed. Danish socioeconomical realities have only limited generalizability. The results support the need to further investigate if exacerbation of mood disorders in spring triggers seasonal peaks of suicide. Identifying triggers for seasonal spring peaks in suicide may lead to uncovering novel risk factors and therapeutic targets for suicide prevention. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CHANGES IN PATELLOFEMORAL JOINT STRESS DURING RUNNING WITH THE APPLICATION OF A PREFABRICATED FOOT ORTHOTIC.

PubMed

Almonroeder, Thomas G; Benson, Lauren C; O'Connor, Kristian M

2015-12-01

Foot orthotics are commonly utilized in the treatment of patellofemoral pain (PFP) and have shown clinical benefit; however, their mechanism of action remains unclear. Patellofemoral joint stress (PFJS) is thought to be one of the main etiological factors associated with PFP. The primary purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a prefabricated foot orthotic with 5 ° of medial rearfoot wedging on the magnitude and the timing of the peak PFJS in a group of healthy female recreational athletes. The hypothesis was that there would be significant reduction in the peak patellofemoral joint stress and a delay in the timing of this peak in the orthotic condition. Cross-sectional. Kinematic and kinetic data were collected during running trials in a group of healthy, female recreational athletes. The knee angle and moment data in the sagittal plane were incorporated into a previously developed model to estimate patellofemoral joint stress. The dependent variables of interest were the peak patellofemoral joint stress as well as the percentage of stance at which this peak occurred, as both the magnitude and the timing of the joint loading are thought to be important in overuse running injuries. The peak patellofemoral joint stress significantly increased in the orthotic condition by 5.8% (p=.02, ES=0.24), which does not support the initial hypothesis. However, the orthotic did significantly delay the timing of the peak during the stance phase by 3.8% (p=.002, ES=0.47). The finding that the peak patellofemoral joint stress increased in the orthotic condition did not support the initial hypothesis. However, the finding that the timing of this peak was delayed to later in the stance phase in the orthotic condition did support the initial hypothesis and may be related to the clinical improvements previously reported in subjects with PFP. Level 4.

TU-H-CAMPUS-TeP3-03: Dose Enhancement by Gold Nanoparticles Around the Bragg Peak of Proton Beams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kwon, J; Sutherland, K; Hashimoto, T

2016-06-15

Purpose: To make clear the spatial distribution of dose enhancement around gold nanoparticles (GNPs) located near the proton Bragg peak, and to evaluate the potential of GNPs as a radio sensitizer. Methods: The dose enhancement by electrons emitted from GNPs under proton irradiation was estimated by Geant4 Monte Carlo simulation toolkit in two steps. In an initial macroscopic step, 100 and 195 MeV proton beams were incident on a water cube, 30 cm on a side. Energy distributions of protons were calculated at four depths, 50% and 75% proximal to the Bragg peak, 100% peak, and 75% distal to themore » peak (P50, P75, Peak, and D75, respectively). In a subsequent microscopic step, protons with the energy distribution calculated above were incident on a 20 nm diameter GNP in a nanometer-size water box and the spatial distribution of dose around the GNP was determined for each energy distribution. The dose enhancement factor (DEF) was also deduced. Results: The dose enhancement effect was spread to several tens of nanometers in the both depth and radial directions. The enhancement area increased in the order of P50, P75, Peak, and D75 for both cases with 100 and 195 MeV protons. In every position around the Bragg peak, the 100 MeV beam resulted in a higher dose enhancement than the 195 MeV beam. At P75, the average and maximum DEF were 3.9 and 17.0 for 100 MeV, and 3.5 and 16.2 for 195 MeV, respectively. These results indicate that lower energy protons caused higher dose enhancement in this incident proton energy range. Conclusion: The dose enhancement around GNPs spread as the position in the Bragg peak region becomes deeper and depends on proton energy. It is expected that GNPs can be used as a radio sensitizer with consideration of the location and proton beam energy.« less

Annual Peak-Flow Frequency Characteristics and (or) Peak Dam-Pool-Elevation Frequency Characteristics of Dry Dams and Selected Streamflow-Gaging Stations in the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2009-01-01

This report describes the results of a study to determine frequency characteristics of postregulation annual peak flows at streamflow-gaging stations at or near the Lockington, Taylorsville, Englewood, Huffman, and Germantown dry dams in the Miami Conservancy District flood-protection system (southwestern Ohio) and five other streamflow-gaging stations in the Great Miami River Basin further downstream from one or more of the dams. In addition, this report describes frequency characteristics of annual peak elevations of the dry-dam pools. In most cases, log-Pearson Type III distributions were fit to postregulation annual peak-flow values through 2007 (the most recent year of published peak-flow values at the time of this analysis) and annual peak dam-pool storage values for the period 1922-2008 to determine peaks with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years. For one streamflow-gaging station (03272100) with a short period of record, frequency characteristics were estimated by means of a process involving interpolation of peak-flow yields determined for an upstream and downstream gage. Once storages had been estimated for the various recurrence intervals, corresponding dam-pool elevations were determined from elevation-storage ratings provided by the Miami Conservancy District.

Modelling dental implant extraction by pullout and torque procedures.

PubMed

Rittel, D; Dorogoy, A; Shemtov-Yona, K

2017-07-01

Dental implants extraction, achieved either by applying torque or pullout force, is used to estimate the bone-implant interfacial strength. A detailed description of the mechanical and physical aspects of the extraction process in the literature is still missing. This paper presents 3D nonlinear dynamic finite element simulations of a commercial implant extraction process from the mandible bone. Emphasis is put on the typical load-displacement and torque-angle relationships for various types of cortical and trabecular bone strengths. The simulations also study of the influence of the osseointegration level on those relationships. This is done by simulating implant extraction right after insertion when interfacial frictional contact exists between the implant and bone, and long after insertion, assuming that the implant is fully bonded to the bone. The model does not include a separate representation and model of the interfacial layer for which available data is limited. The obtained relationships show that the higher the strength of the trabecular bone the higher the peak extraction force, while for application of torque, it is the cortical bone which might dictate the peak torque value. Information on the relative strength contrast of the cortical and trabecular components, as well as the progressive nature of the damage evolution, can be revealed from the obtained relations. It is shown that full osseointegration might multiply the peak and average load values by a factor 3-12 although the calculated work of extraction varies only by a factor of 1.5. From a quantitative point of view, it is suggested that, as an alternative to reporting peak load or torque values, an average value derived from the extraction work be used to better characterize the bone-implant interfacial strength. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lightning Strike Peak Current Probabilities as Related to Space Shuttle Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.

2000-01-01

A summary is presented of basic lightning characteristics/criteria applicable to current and future aerospace vehicles. The paper provides estimates on the probability of occurrence of a 200 kA peak lightning return current, should lightning strike an aerospace vehicle in various operational phases, i.e., roll-out, on-pad, launch, reenter/land, and return-to-launch site. A literature search was conducted for previous work concerning occurrence and measurement of peak lighting currents, modeling, and estimating the probabilities of launch vehicles/objects being struck by lightning. This paper presents a summary of these results.

Field metabolism and water flux of carolina chickadees during breeding and nonbreeding seasons: A test of the "peak-demand" and "reallocation" hypotheses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Williams, J.B.; Grubb, T.C.

2001-01-01

We tested the "peak-demand" and "reallocation" hypotheses of seasonal energy expenditure which predict, respectively, that energy expenditure is greatest during the breeding season or varies little seasonally. We tested these predictions by utilizing the doubly labeled water technique to estimate energy expenditure and water flux of Carolina Chickadees (Poecile carolinensis) in both the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. Similar to Weathers et al. (1999), we did not find support for either of these hypotheses, finding instead that energy expenditure was greater during the nonbreeding season. The fact that our study site was at the northern edge of the species' range, where winters are severe, may have influenced this result. Comparisons with other parid studies were equivocal because body size was an important factor in explaining seasonal energetics, and only the larger species have been examined during the breeding season.

[An automatic peak detection method for LIBS spectrum based on continuous wavelet transform].

PubMed

Chen, Peng-Fei; Tian, Di; Qiao, Shu-Jun; Yang, Guang

2014-07-01

Spectrum peak detection in the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is an essential step, but the presence of background and noise seriously disturb the accuracy of peak position. The present paper proposed a method applied to automatic peak detection for LIBS spectrum in order to enhance the ability of overlapping peaks searching and adaptivity. We introduced the ridge peak detection method based on continuous wavelet transform to LIBS, and discussed the choice of the mother wavelet and optimized the scale factor and the shift factor. This method also improved the ridge peak detection method with a correcting ridge method. The experimental results show that compared with other peak detection methods (the direct comparison method, derivative method and ridge peak search method), our method had a significant advantage on the ability to distinguish overlapping peaks and the precision of peak detection, and could be be applied to data processing in LIBS.

Comparison of Peak-Flow Estimation Methods for Small Drainage Basins in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Hebson, Charles; Lombard, Pamela J.; Mann, Alexander

2007-01-01

Understanding the accuracy of commonly used methods for estimating peak streamflows is important because the designs of bridges, culverts, and other river structures are based on these flows. Different methods for estimating peak streamflows were analyzed for small drainage basins in Maine. For the smallest basins, with drainage areas of 0.2 to 1.0 square mile, nine peak streamflows from actual rainfall events at four crest-stage gaging stations were modeled by the Rational Method and the Natural Resource Conservation Service TR-20 method and compared to observed peak flows. The Rational Method had a root mean square error (RMSE) of -69.7 to 230 percent (which means that approximately two thirds of the modeled flows were within -69.7 to 230 percent of the observed flows). The TR-20 method had an RMSE of -98.0 to 5,010 percent. Both the Rational Method and TR-20 underestimated the observed flows in most cases. For small basins, with drainage areas of 1.0 to 10 square miles, modeled peak flows were compared to observed statistical peak flows with return periods of 2, 50, and 100 years for 17 streams in Maine and adjoining parts of New Hampshire. Peak flows were modeled by the Rational Method, the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 method, U.S. Geological Survey regression equations, and the Probabilistic Rational Method. The regression equations were the most accurate method of computing peak flows in Maine for streams with drainage areas of 1.0 to 10 square miles with an RMSE of -34.3 to 52.2 percent for 50-year peak flows. The Probabilistic Rational Method was the next most accurate method (-38.5 to 62.6 percent). The Rational Method (-56.1 to 128 percent) and particularly the TR-20 method (-76.4 to 323 percent) had much larger errors. Both the TR-20 and regression methods had similar numbers of underpredictions and overpredictions. The Rational Method overpredicted most peak flows and the Probabilistic Rational Method tended to overpredict peak flows from the smaller (less than 5 square miles) drainage basins and underpredict peak flows from larger drainage basins. The results of this study are consistent with the most comprehensive analysis of observed and modeled peak streamflows in the United States, which analyzed statistical peak flows from 70 drainage basins in the Midwest and the Northwest.

Peak-flow frequency relations and evaluation of the peak-flow gaging network in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soenksen, Philip J.; Miller, Lisa D.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Watton, Jason R.

1999-01-01

Estimates of peak-flow magnitude and frequency are required for the efficient design of structures that convey flood flows or occupy floodways, such as bridges, culverts, and roads. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Nebraska Department of Roads, conducted a study to update peak-flow frequency analyses for selected streamflow-gaging stations, develop a new set of peak-flow frequency relations for ungaged streams, and evaluate the peak-flow gaging-station network for Nebraska. Data from stations located in or within about 50 miles of Nebraska were analyzed using guidelines of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data in Bulletin 17B. New generalized skew relations were developed for use in frequency analyses of unregulated streams. Thirty-three drainage-basin characteristics related to morphology, soils, and precipitation were quantified using a geographic information system, related computer programs, and digital spatial data.For unregulated streams, eight sets of regional regression equations relating drainage-basin to peak-flow characteristics were developed for seven regions of the state using a generalized least squares procedure. Two sets of regional peak-flow frequency equations were developed for basins with average soil permeability greater than 4 inches per hour, and six sets of equations were developed for specific geographic areas, usually based on drainage-basin boundaries. Standard errors of estimate for the 100-year frequency equations (1percent probability) ranged from 12.1 to 63.8 percent. For regulated reaches of nine streams, graphs of peak flow for standard frequencies and distance upstream of the mouth were estimated.The regional networks of streamflow-gaging stations on unregulated streams were analyzed to evaluate how additional data might affect the average sampling errors of the newly developed peak-flow equations for the 100-year frequency occurrence. Results indicated that data from new stations, rather than more data from existing stations, probably would produce the greatest reduction in average sampling errors of the equations.

Spatiotemporal phenological changes in fall foliage peak coloration in deciduous forest and the responses to climatic variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.; Wilson, A. M.

2017-12-01

Plant phenology studies typically focus on the beginning and end of the growing season in temperate forests. We know too little about fall foliage peak coloration, which is a bioindicator of plant response in autumn to environmental changes, an important visual cue in fall associated with animal activities, and a key element in fall foliage ecotourism. Spatiotemporal changes in timing of fall foliage peak coloration of temperate forests and the associated environmental controls are not well understood. In this study, we examined multiple color indices to estimate Land Surface Phenology (LSP) of fall foliage peak coloration of deciduous forest in the northeastern USA using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily imagery from 2000 to 2015. We used long term phenology ground observations to validate our estimated LSP, and found that Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI) were good metrics to estimate peak and end of leaf coloration period of deciduous forest. During the past 16 years, the length of period with peak fall foliage color of deciduous forest at southern New England and northern Appalachian forests regions became longer (0.3 7.7 days), mainly driven by earlier peak coloration. Northern New England, southern Appalachian forests and Ozark and Ouachita mountains areas had shorter period (‒0.2 ‒9.2 days) mainly due to earlier end of leaf coloration. Changes in peak and end of leaf coloration not only were associated with changing temperature in spring and fall, but also to drought and heat in summer, and heavy precipitation in both summer and fall. The associations between leaf peak coloration phenology and climatic variations were not consistent among ecoregions. Our findings suggested divergent change patterns in fall foliage peak coloration phenology in deciduous forests, and improved our understanding in the environmental control on timing of fall foliage color change.

Flood of June 22-24, 2006, in North-Central Ohio, With Emphasis on the Cuyahoga River Near Independence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, James M.; Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Astifan, Brian M.

2007-01-01

Heavy rains caused severe flooding on June 22-24, 2006, and damaged approximately 4,580 homes and 48 businesses in Cuyahoga County. Damage estimates in Cuyahoga County for the two days of flooding exceed $47 million; statewide damage estimates exceed $150 million. Six counties (Cuyahoga, Erie, Huron, Lucas, Sandusky, and Stark) in northeast Ohio were declared Federal disaster areas. One death, in Lorain County, was attributed to the flooding. The peak streamflow of 25,400 cubic feet per second and corresponding peak gage height of 23.29 feet were the highest recorded at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station Cuyahoga River at Independence (04208000) since the gaging station began operation in 1922, exceeding the previous peak streamflow of 24,800 cubic feet per second that occurred on January 22, 1959. An indirect calculation of the peak streamflow was made by use of a step-backwater model because all roads leading to the gaging station were inundated during the flood and field crews could not reach the station to make a direct measurement. Because of a statistically significant and persistent positive trend in the annual-peak-streamflow time series for the Cuyahoga River at Independence, a method was developed and applied to detrend the annual-peak-streamflow time series prior to the traditional log-Pearson Type III flood-frequency analysis. Based on this analysis, the recurrence interval of the computed peak streamflow was estimated to be slightly less than 100 years. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and recurrence-interval estimates for the June 22-24, 2006, flood are tabulated for the Cuyahoga River at Independence and 10 other USGS gaging stations in north-central Ohio. Because flooding along the Cuyahoga River near Independence and Valley View was particularly severe, a study was done to document the peak water-surface profile during the flood from approximately 2 miles downstream from the USGS streamflow-gaging station at Independence to approximately 2 miles upstream from the gaging station. High-water marks were identified and flagged in the field. Third-order-accuracy surveys were used to determine elevations of the high-water marks, and the data were tabulated and plotted.

Peak-discharge frequency and potential extreme peak discharge for natural streams in the Brazos River basin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raines, Timothy H.

1998-01-01

The potential extreme peak-discharge curves as related to contributing drainage area were estimated for each of the three hydrologic regions from measured extreme peaks of record at 186 sites with streamflow-gaging stations and from measured extreme peaks at 37 sites without streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Brazos River Basin. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves generally are similar for hydrologic regions 1 and 2, and the curve for region 3 consistently is below the curves for regions 1 and 2, which indicates smaller peak discharges.

Biphasic activation of nuclear factor-κB and expression of p65 and c-Rel following traumatic neuronal injury.

PubMed

Zhang, Huasheng; Zhang, Dingding; Li, Hua; Yan, Huiying; Zhang, Zihuan; Zhou, Chenhui; Chen, Qiang; Ye, Zhennan; Hang, Chunhua

2018-06-01

The transcription factor nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) has been shown to function as a key regulator of cell death or survival in neuronal cells. Previous studies indicate that the biphasic activation of NF-κB occurs following experimental neonatal hypoxia-ischemia and subarachnoid hemorrhage. However, the comprehensive understanding of NF-κB activity following traumatic brain injury (TBI) is incomplete. In the current study, an in vitro model of TBI was designed to investigate the NF-κB activity and expression of p65 and c-Rel subunits following traumatic neuronal injury. Primary cultured neurons were assigned to control and transected groups. NF-κB activity was detected by electrophoretic mobility shift assay. Western blotting and immunofluorescence were used to investigate the expression and distribution of p65 and c-Rel. Reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction was performed to assess the downstream genes of NF-κB. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) quantification and trypan blue staining were used to estimate the neuronal injury. Double peaks of elevated NF-κB activity were observed at 1 and 24 h following transection. The expression levels of downstream genes exhibited similar changes. The protein levels of p65 also presented double peaks while c-Rel was elevated significantly in the late stage. The results of the trypan blue staining and LDH leakage assays indicated there was no sustained neuronal injury during the late peak of NF-κB activity. In conclusion, biphasic activation of NF-κB is induced following experimental traumatic neuronal injury. The elevation of p65 and c-Rel levels at different time periods suggests that within a single neuron, NF-κB may participate in different pathophysiological processes.

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values.

PubMed

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H; Villablanca, J Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H; Cody, Dianna D; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2013-09-01

CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%-65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%-106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%-82% relative to voxelized model simulations. CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses.

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: Use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values

PubMed Central

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H.; Villablanca, J. Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H.; Cody, Dianna D.; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

2013-01-01

Purpose: CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. Results: The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%–65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%–106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%–82% relative to voxelized model simulations. Conclusions: CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses. PMID:24007152

Using the Human Activity Profile to Assess Functional Performance in Heart Failure.

PubMed

Ribeiro-Samora, Giane Amorim; Pereira, Danielle Aparecida Gomes; Vieira, Otávia Alves; de Alencar, Maria Clara Noman; Rodrigues, Roseane Santo; Carvalho, Maria Luiza Vieira; Montemezzo, Dayane; Britto, Raquel Rodrigues

2016-01-01

To investigate (1) the validity of using the Human Activity Profile (HAP) in patients with heart failure (HF) to estimate functional capacity; (2) the association between the HAP and 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT) distance; and (3) the ability of the HAP to differentiate between New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional classes. In a cross-sectional study, we evaluated 62 clinically stable patients with HF (mean age, 47.98 years; NYHA class I-III). Variables included maximal functional capacity as measured by peak oxygen uptake ((Equation is included in full-text article.)O2) using a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)O2 as estimated by the HAP, and exercise capacity as measured by the 6MWT. The difference between the measured (CPET) and estimated (HAP) peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)O2 against the average values showed a bias of 2.18 mL/kg/min (P = .007). No agreement was seen between these measures when applying the Bland-Altman method. Peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)O2 in the HAP showed a moderate association with the 6MWT distance (r = 0.62; P < .0001). Peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)O2 in the HAP was able to statistically differentiate NYHA functional classes I, II, and III (P < .05). The estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)O2 using the HAP was not concordant with the gold standard CPET measure. On the contrary, the HAP was able to differentiate NYHA functional class associated with the 6MWT distance; therefore, the HAP is a useful tool for assessing functional performance in patients with HF.

Flood of June 7-9, 2008, in Central and Southern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, Scott E.; Menke, Chad D.; Arvin, Donald V.; Kim, Moon H.

2008-01-01

On June 6-7, 2008, heavy rainfall of 2 to more than 10 inches fell upon saturated soils and added to already high streamflows from a wetter than normal spring in central and southern Indiana. The heavy rainfall resulted in severe flooding on many streams within the White River Basin during June 7-9, causing three deaths, evacuation of thousands of residents, and hundreds of millions of dollars of damage to residences, businesses, infrastructure, and agricultural lands. In all, 39 Indiana counties were declared Federal disaster areas. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages at nine locations recorded new record peak streamflows for the respective periods of record as a result of the heavy rainfall. Recurrence intervals of flood-peak streamflows were estimated to be greater than 100 years at five streamgages and 50-100 years at two streamgages. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and recurrence intervals are tabulated for 19 USGS streamgages in central and southern Indiana. Peak-streamflow estimates are tabulated for four ungaged locations, and estimated recurrence intervals are tabulated for three ungaged locations. The estimated recurrence interval for an ungaged location on Haw Creek in Columbus was greater than 100 years and for an ungaged location on Hurricane Creek in Franklin was 50-100 years. Because flooding was particularly severe in the communities of Columbus, Edinburgh, Franklin, Paragon, Seymour, Spencer, Martinsville, Newberry, and Worthington, high-water-mark data collected after the flood were tabulated for those communities. Flood peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for selected streams were made in a geographic information system by combining the high-water-mark data with the highest-resolution digital elevation model data available.

SENSITIVITY OF STRUCTURAL RESPONSE TO GROUND MOTION SOURCE AND SITE PARAMETERS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Erdal; Brebbia, C.A.; Cakmak, A.S.; Abdel Ghaffar, A.M.

1985-01-01

Designing structures to withstand earthquakes requires an accurate estimation of the expected ground motion. While engineers use the peak ground acceleration (PGA) to model the strong ground motion, seismologists use physical characteristics of the source and the rupture mechanism, such as fault length, stress drop, shear wave velocity, seismic moment, distance, and attenuation. This study presents a method for calculating response spectra from seismological models using random vibration theory. It then investigates the effect of various source and site parameters on peak response. Calculations are based on a nonstationary stochastic ground motion model, which can incorporate all the parameters both in frequency and time domains. The estimation of the peak response accounts for the effects of the non-stationarity, bandwidth and peak correlations of the response.

Preliminary evaluation of the Environmental Research Institute of Michigan crop calendar shift algorithm for estimation of spring wheat development stage. [North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phinney, D. E. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

An algorithm for estimating spectral crop calendar shifts of spring small grains was applied to 1978 spring wheat fields. The algorithm provides estimates of the date of peak spectral response by maximizing the cross correlation between a reference profile and the observed multitemporal pattern of Kauth-Thomas greenness for a field. A methodology was developed for estimation of crop development stage from the date of peak spectral response. Evaluation studies showed that the algorithm provided stable estimates with no geographical bias. Crop development stage estimates had a root mean square error near 10 days. The algorithm was recommended for comparative testing against other models which are candidates for use in AgRISTARS experiments.

Comparing the index-flood and multiple-regression methods using L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malekinezhad, H.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Klik, A.

In arid and semi-arid regions, the length of records is usually too short to ensure reliable quantile estimates. Comparing index-flood and multiple-regression analyses based on L-moments was the main objective of this study. Factor analysis was applied to determine main influencing variables on flood magnitude. Ward’s cluster and L-moments approaches were applied to several sites in the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran to delineate homogeneous regions based on site characteristics. Homogeneity test was done using L-moments-based measures. Several distributions were fitted to the regional flood data and index-flood and multiple-regression methods as two regional flood frequency methods were compared. The results of factor analysis showed that length of main waterway, compactness coefficient, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature were the main variables affecting flood magnitude. The study area was divided into three regions based on the Ward’s method of clustering approach. The homogeneity test based on L-moments showed that all three regions were acceptably homogeneous. Five distributions were fitted to the annual peak flood data of three homogeneous regions. Using the L-moment ratios and the Z-statistic criteria, GEV distribution was identified as the most robust distribution among five candidate distributions for all the proposed sub-regions of the study area, and in general, it was concluded that the generalised extreme value distribution was the best-fit distribution for every three regions. The relative root mean square error (RRMSE) measure was applied for evaluating the performance of the index-flood and multiple-regression methods in comparison with the curve fitting (plotting position) method. In general, index-flood method gives more reliable estimations for various flood magnitudes of different recurrence intervals. Therefore, this method should be adopted as regional flood frequency method for the study area and the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran. To estimate floods of various return periods for gauged catchments in the study area, the mean annual peak flood of the catchments may be multiplied by corresponding values of the growth factors, and computed using the GEV distribution.

Direct measurement of the breakdown slip from near-fault strong motion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Olsen, K. B.; Dalguer, L. A.

2007-12-01

Obtaining reliable estimates of the frictional behaviour on earthquake faults is a fundamental task, particularly the breakdown slip Dc, which has an important role on rupture propagation through the earthquake energy budget. Several studies have attempted to estimate Dc indirectly from kinematical analysis of fault ruptures (e.g., Ide and Takeo, JGR, 1997). However, such estimates are complicated because of both the limited band-width of the observed seismograms used to image the rupture process and the rapid decay of high frequencies with distance from the fault. Mikumo et al. (BSSA, 2003) proposed a method to estimate Dc on the fault plane as the slip at the time of the peak sliprate function (Dc'). Fukuyama and Mikumo (GRL, 2007) proposed to extend this method beyond the fault plane, by estimating Dc as twice the rake-parallel particle displacement at the time of the peak particle velocity. The factor of two arises from an equal amount of opposite displacement on either side of the fault. They concluded that such method allows reliable Dc' estimates with negligible dependence on the perpendicular distance from the fault, and used it to obtain Dc' estimates for the 2000 M6.6 Tottori (0.3 m) and the 2002 M7.9 Denali (2.5 m) earthquakes. The study by Fukuyama and Mikumo was based on simple two-dimensional Green's functions in a homogeneous full space for an anti-plane kinematic crack, and suffers from three fundamental omissions: 1) the free surface and heterogeneous structure, 2) the finiteness of the rupture surface and 3) the dynamic rupture complexity of real 3D earthquakes. Here, we re-examine the methodology proposed by Fukuyama and Mikumo by means of a more realistic approach. We use spontaneous rupture propagation simulated by a recently developed and highly accurate approach, namely the staggered-grid split-node (SGSN) method in a fourth-order staggered- grid finite difference method (Dalguer and Day, JGR, 2007). We assume a vertical strike-slip fault governed by both linear and non-linear slip-weakening friction laws. Our results show that both the free surface and the stopping phases strongly affect Dc estimates. The particle motion recorded by surface instruments is amplified roughly by a factor of two due to the presence of the free surface. As a consequence, the method by Fukuyama and Mikumo over-estimates Dc when applied to strong motion data recorded on the earth's surface. Moreover, contrary to the results by Fukuyama and Mikumo, we observe a strong distance-dependence of the Dc estimates perpendicular to the fault. This variation includes a minimum near the fault, increasing up to about 140% of the target Dc value at a distance 2-3 km from the fault. At further distances from the fault the Dc estimate decreases to about 60% of the target value 10 km away. This distance dependence of the Dc estimate is presumably caused mainly by stopping phases propagating from the fault boundaries. Simulations in heterogeneous media including a low-velocity layer, intrinsic attenuation (Q) and stochastic initial stress conditions allow us to asses the reliability and uncertainty involved in the method proposed by Fukuyama and Mikumo. Dc estimates under these realistic conditions are important but remain below a factor of two in most of the cases we have analyzed. In summary, the accuracy of the method is strongly affected by the presence of the free surface, finite fault extent, and likely by complexity in the velocity structure and rupture propagation.

STREAMFLOW LOSSES IN THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER, ARIZONA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, B.N.

1985-01-01

The discharge and volume of flow in a peak decrease as the peak moves through an 89-mile (143 km) reach of the Santa Cruz River. An average of three peaks per year flow the length of the reach. Of 17,500 acre-ft (21,600 dam**3) that entered the upstream end of the reach, 2300 acre-ft (2,840 dam**3), 13 percent of the inflow, left the reach as streamflow. The remainder was lost through infiltration. Losses in a reach of channel were estimated by relating losses to the discharge at the upstream end of the reach. Tributary inflow was estimated through the use of synthesized duration curves. Streamflow losses along mountain fronts were estimated through the use of an electric analog model and by relating losses shown by the model to the median altitude of the contributing area.

Development of magnitude scaling relationship for earthquake early warning system in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheen, D.

2011-12-01

Seismicity in South Korea is low and magnitudes of recent earthquakes are mostly less than 4.0. However, historical earthquakes of South Korea reveal that many damaging earthquakes had occurred in the Korean Peninsula. To mitigate potential seismic hazard in the Korean Peninsula, earthquake early warning (EEW) system is being installed and will be operated in South Korea in the near future. In order to deliver early warnings successfully, it is very important to develop stable magnitude scaling relationships. In this study, two empirical magnitude relationships are developed from 350 events ranging in magnitude from 2.0 to 5.0 recorded by the KMA and the KIGAM. 1606 vertical component seismograms whose epicentral distances are within 100 km are chosen. The peak amplitude and the maximum predominant period of the initial P wave are used for finding magnitude relationships. The peak displacement of seismogram recorded at a broadband seismometer shows less scatter than the peak velocity of that. The scatters of the peak displacement and the peak velocity of accelerogram are similar to each other. The peak displacement of seismogram differs from that of accelerogram, which means that two different magnitude relationships for each type of data should be developed. The maximum predominant period of the initial P wave is estimated after using two low-pass filters, 3 Hz and 10 Hz, and 10 Hz low-pass filter yields better estimate than 3 Hz. It is found that most of the peak amplitude and the maximum predominant period are estimated within 1 sec after triggering.

Estimation of Mesospheric Densities at Low Latitudes Using the Kunming Meteor Radar Together With SABER Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Wen; Xue, Xianghui; Reid, Iain M.; Younger, Joel P.; Chen, Jinsong; Chen, Tingdi; Li, Na

2018-04-01

Neutral mesospheric densities at a low latitude have been derived during April 2011 to December 2014 using data from the Kunming meteor radar in China (25.6°N, 103.8°E). The daily mean density at 90 km was estimated using the ambipolar diffusion coefficients from the meteor radar and temperatures from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument. The seasonal variations of the meteor radar-derived density are consistent with the density from the Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model, show a dominant annual variation, with a maximum during winter, and a minimum during summer. A simple linear model was used to separate the effects of atmospheric density and the meteor velocity on the meteor radar peak detection height. We find that a 1 km/s difference in the vertical meteor velocity yields a change of approximately 0.42 km in peak height. The strong correlation between the meteor radar density and the velocity-corrected peak height indicates that the meteor radar density estimates accurately reflect changes in neutral atmospheric density and that meteor peak detection heights, when adjusted for meteoroid velocity, can serve as a convenient tool for measuring density variations around the mesopause. A comparison of the ambipolar diffusion coefficient and peak height observed simultaneously by two co-located meteor radars indicates that the relative errors of the daily mean ambipolar diffusion coefficient and peak height should be less than 5% and 6%, respectively, and that the absolute error of the peak height is less than 0.2 km.

The stability of H/V spectral ratios from noise measurements in Armutlu Peninsula (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livaoǧlu, Hamdullah; Irmak, T. Serkan; Caka, Deniz; Yavuz, Evrim; Lühr, B. G.; Woith, H.; Tunç, B.; Baris, S.

2016-04-01

The horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (H/V) method has been successfully using in order to estimate the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover, its thickness and amplification factor since at least 3 decades. There are numerous studies have been carried out on the stability of the H/V spectral ratios. Almost all studies showed that fundamental frequency is stable even measurements are repeated at different times. From this point of view, the results will show us an approach whether the stations are suitable for accurate estimate of earthquake studies and engineering purposes or not. Also we want to see if any effects of the amplification factor changing on the seismograms for Armutlu Seismic Network (ARNET) even though seismic stations are established far away from cultural noise and located on hard rock sites. It has been selected one hour recorded data of all stations during the most stationary times. The amplification and resonant frequency variations of H/V ratio were calculated to investigate temporal stability in time. There is a total harmony in fundamental frequencies values and H/V spectral ratio values in time-lagged periods. Some stations shows secondary minor peaks in high frequency band due to a shallow formation effect or cultural noises around. In the east side of the area ILYS station shows amplitude peak in lower fundamental frequency band from expected. This could compose a high amplification in lower frequencies and so that yield less reliable results in local earthquakes studies. By the experimental results from ambient noise analysis, it could be worked up for relocation of one station.

Replacement of Vegetative ςA by Sporulation-Specific ςF as a Component of the RNA Polymerase Holoenzyme in Sporulating Bacillus subtilis

PubMed Central

Lord, Matthew; Barillà, Daniela; Yudkin, Michael D.

1999-01-01

Soon after asymmetric septation in sporulating Bacillus subtilis cells, ςF is liberated in the prespore from inhibition by SpoIIAB. To initiate transcription from its cognate promoters, ςF must compete with ςA, the housekeeping sigma factor in the predivisional cell, for binding to core RNA polymerase (E). To estimate the relative affinity of E for ςA and ςF, we made separate mixtures of E with each of the two sigma factors, allowed reconstitution of the holoenzyme, and measured the concentration of free E remaining in each mixture. The affinity of E for ςF was found to be about 25-fold lower than that for ςA. We used quantitative Western blotting to estimate the concentrations of E, ςA, and ςF in sporulating cells. The cellular concentrations of E and ςA were both about 7.5 μM, and neither changed significantly during the first 3 h of sporulation. The concentration of ςF was extremely low at the beginning of sporulation, but it rose rapidly to a peak after about 2 h. At its peak, the concentration of ςF was some twofold higher than that of ςA. This difference in concentration cannot adequately account for the replacement of ςA holoenzyme by ςF holoenzyme in the prespore, and it seems that some further mechanism—perhaps the synthesis or activation of an anti-ςA factor—must be responsible for this replacement. PMID:10197994

Modelling the impact of causal and non-causal factors on disruption duration for Toronto's subway system: An exploratory investigation using hazard modelling.

PubMed

Louie, Jacob; Shalaby, Amer; Habib, Khandker Nurul

2017-01-01

Most investigations of incident-related delay duration in the transportation context are restricted to highway traffic, with little attention given to delays due to transit service disruptions. Studies of transit-based delay duration are also considerably less comprehensive than their highway counterparts with respect to examining the effects of non-causal variables on the delay duration. However, delays due to incidents in public transit service can have serious consequences on the overall urban transportation system due to the pivotal and vital role of public transit. The ability to predict the durations of various types of transit system incidents is indispensable for better management and mitigation of service disruptions. This paper presents a detailed investigation on incident delay durations in Toronto's subway system over the year 2013, focusing on the effects of the incidents' location and time, the train-type involved, and the non-adherence to proper recovery procedures. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard models are estimated to investigate the relationship between these factors and the resulting delay duration. The empirical investigation reveals that incident types that impact both safety and operations simultaneously generally have longer expected delays than incident types that impact either safety or operations alone. Incidents at interchange stations are cleared faster than incidents at non-interchange stations. Incidents during peak periods have nearly the same delay durations as off-peak incidents. The estimated models are believed to be useful tools in predicting the relative magnitude of incident delay duration for better management of subway operations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

R Peak Detection Method Using Wavelet Transform and Modified Shannon Energy Envelope

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Rapid automatic detection of the fiducial points—namely, the P wave, QRS complex, and T wave—is necessary for early detection of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In this paper, we present an R peak detection method using the wavelet transform (WT) and a modified Shannon energy envelope (SEE) for rapid ECG analysis. The proposed WTSEE algorithm performs a wavelet transform to reduce the size and noise of ECG signals and creates SEE after first-order differentiation and amplitude normalization. Subsequently, the peak energy envelope (PEE) is extracted from the SEE. Then, R peaks are estimated from the PEE, and the estimated peaks are adjusted from the input ECG. Finally, the algorithm generates the final R features by validating R-R intervals and updating the extracted R peaks. The proposed R peak detection method was validated using 48 first-channel ECG records of the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database with a sensitivity of 99.93%, positive predictability of 99.91%, detection error rate of 0.16%, and accuracy of 99.84%. Considering the high detection accuracy and fast processing speed due to the wavelet transform applied before calculating SEE, the proposed method is highly effective for real-time applications in early detection of CVDs. PMID:29065613

R Peak Detection Method Using Wavelet Transform and Modified Shannon Energy Envelope.

PubMed

Park, Jeong-Seon; Lee, Sang-Woong; Park, Unsang

2017-01-01

Rapid automatic detection of the fiducial points-namely, the P wave, QRS complex, and T wave-is necessary for early detection of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In this paper, we present an R peak detection method using the wavelet transform (WT) and a modified Shannon energy envelope (SEE) for rapid ECG analysis. The proposed WTSEE algorithm performs a wavelet transform to reduce the size and noise of ECG signals and creates SEE after first-order differentiation and amplitude normalization. Subsequently, the peak energy envelope (PEE) is extracted from the SEE. Then, R peaks are estimated from the PEE, and the estimated peaks are adjusted from the input ECG. Finally, the algorithm generates the final R features by validating R-R intervals and updating the extracted R peaks. The proposed R peak detection method was validated using 48 first-channel ECG records of the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database with a sensitivity of 99.93%, positive predictability of 99.91%, detection error rate of 0.16%, and accuracy of 99.84%. Considering the high detection accuracy and fast processing speed due to the wavelet transform applied before calculating SEE, the proposed method is highly effective for real-time applications in early detection of CVDs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, M.; Pratt, A.; Lunacek, M.

The combination of distributed energy resources (DER) and retail tariff structures to provide benefits to both utility consumers and the utilities is not well understood. To improve understanding, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is being developed to simulate the physical and economic aspects of DER technologies, the buildings where they reside, and feeders servicing them. The IESM was used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time-of-use (TOU) tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. Home energy management systems (HEMS) reduce consumers’ electricmore » bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices, resulting in a higher peak load. used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time-of-use (TOU) tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. Home energy management systems (HEMS) reduce consumers’ electric bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices, resulting in a higher peak load.« less

Feature Selection and Classifier Parameters Estimation for EEG Signals Peak Detection Using Particle Swarm Optimization

PubMed Central

Adam, Asrul; Mohd Tumari, Mohd Zaidi; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi

2014-01-01

Electroencephalogram (EEG) signal peak detection is widely used in clinical applications. The peak point can be detected using several approaches, including time, frequency, time-frequency, and nonlinear domains depending on various peak features from several models. However, there is no study that provides the importance of every peak feature in contributing to a good and generalized model. In this study, feature selection and classifier parameters estimation based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) are proposed as a framework for peak detection on EEG signals in time domain analysis. Two versions of PSO are used in the study: (1) standard PSO and (2) random asynchronous particle swarm optimization (RA-PSO). The proposed framework tries to find the best combination of all the available features that offers good peak detection and a high classification rate from the results in the conducted experiments. The evaluation results indicate that the accuracy of the peak detection can be improved up to 99.90% and 98.59% for training and testing, respectively, as compared to the framework without feature selection adaptation. Additionally, the proposed framework based on RA-PSO offers a better and reliable classification rate as compared to standard PSO as it produces low variance model. PMID:25243236

Intermolecular interactions and substrate effects for an adamantane monolayer on a Au(111) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakai, Yuki; Nguyen, Giang D.; Capaz, Rodrigo B.; Coh, Sinisa; Pechenezhskiy, Ivan V.; Hong, Xiaoping; Wang, Feng; Crommie, Michael F.; Saito, Susumu; Louie, Steven G.; Cohen, Marvin L.

2013-12-01

We study theoretically and experimentally the infrared (IR) spectrum of an adamantane monolayer on a Au(111) surface. Using a STM-based IR spectroscopy technique (IRSTM) we are able to measure both the nanoscale structure of an adamantane monolayer on Au(111) as well as its infrared spectrum, while DFT-based ab initio calculations allow us to interpret the microscopic vibrational dynamics revealed by our measurements. We find that the IR spectrum of an adamantane monolayer on Au(111) is substantially modified with respect to the gas-phase IR spectrum. The first modification is caused by the adamantane-adamantane interaction due to monolayer packing, and it reduces the IR intensity of the 2912 cm-1 peak (gas phase) by a factor of 3.5. The second modification originates from the adamantane-gold interaction, and it increases the IR intensity of the 2938 cm-1 peak (gas phase) by a factor of 2.6 and reduces its frequency by 276 cm-1. We expect that the techniques described here can be used for an independent estimate of substrate effects and intermolecular interactions in other diamondoid molecules and for other metallic substrates.

Confounding by season in ecologic studies of seasonal exposures and outcomes: examples from estimates of mortality due to influenza.

PubMed

Jackson, Michael L

2009-10-01

Many health outcomes exhibit seasonal variation in incidence, including accidents, suicides, and infections. For seasonal outcomes it can be difficult to distinguish the causal roles played by factors that also vary seasonally, such as weather, air pollution, and pathogen circulation. Various approaches to estimating the association between a seasonal exposure and a seasonal outcome in ecologic studies are reviewed, using studies of influenza-related mortality as an example. Because mortality rates vary seasonally and circulation of other respiratory viruses peaks during influenza season, it is a challenge to estimate which winter deaths were caused by influenza. Results of studies that estimated the contribution of influenza to all-cause mortality using different methods on the same data are compared. Methods for estimating associations between season exposures and outcomes vary greatly in their advantages, disadvantages, and assumptions. Even when applied to identical data, different methods can give greatly different results for the expected contribution of influenza to all-cause mortality. When the association between exposures and outcomes that vary seasonally is estimated, models must be selected carefully, keeping in mind the assumptions inherent in each model.

Hubbert's Peak: A Physicist's View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Richard

2011-11-01

Oil and its by-products, as used in manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation, are the lifeblood of today's 7 billion-person population and our 65T world economy. Despite this importance, estimates of future oil production seem dominated by wishful thinking rather than quantitative analysis. Better studies are needed. In 1956, Dr. M.King Hubbert proposed a theory of resource production and applied it successfully to predict peak U.S. oil production in 1970. Thus, the peak of oil production is referred to as ``Hubbert's Peak.'' Prof. Al Bartlett extended this work in publications and lectures on population and oil. Both Hubbert and Bartlett place peak world oil production at a similar time, essentially now. This paper extends this line of work to include analyses of individual countries, inclusion of multiple Gaussian peaks, and analysis of reserves data. While this is not strictly a predictive theory, we will demonstrate a ``closed'' story connecting production, oil-in-place, and reserves. This gives us the ``most likely'' estimate of future oil availability. Finally, we will comment on synthetic oil and the possibility of carbon-neutral synthetic oil for a sustainable future.

Estimating 3D L5/S1 moments and ground reaction forces during trunk bending using a full-body ambulatory inertial motion capture system.

PubMed

Faber, G S; Chang, C C; Kingma, I; Dennerlein, J T; van Dieën, J H

2016-04-11

Inertial motion capture (IMC) systems have become increasingly popular for ambulatory movement analysis. However, few studies have attempted to use these measurement techniques to estimate kinetic variables, such as joint moments and ground reaction forces (GRFs). Therefore, we investigated the performance of a full-body ambulatory IMC system in estimating 3D L5/S1 moments and GRFs during symmetric, asymmetric and fast trunk bending, performed by nine male participants. Using an ambulatory IMC system (Xsens/MVN), L5/S1 moments were estimated based on the upper-body segment kinematics using a top-down inverse dynamics analysis, and GRFs were estimated based on full-body segment accelerations. As a reference, a laboratory measurement system was utilized: GRFs were measured with Kistler force plates (FPs), and L5/S1 moments were calculated using a bottom-up inverse dynamics model based on FP data and lower-body kinematics measured with an optical motion capture system (OMC). Correspondence between the OMC+FP and IMC systems was quantified by calculating root-mean-square errors (RMSerrors) of moment/force time series and the interclass correlation (ICC) of the absolute peak moments/forces. Averaged over subjects, L5/S1 moment RMSerrors remained below 10Nm (about 5% of the peak extension moment) and 3D GRF RMSerrors remained below 20N (about 2% of the peak vertical force). ICCs were high for the peak L5/S1 extension moment (0.971) and vertical GRF (0.998). Due to lower amplitudes, smaller ICCs were found for the peak asymmetric L5/S1 moments (0.690-0.781) and horizontal GRFs (0.559-0.948). In conclusion, close correspondence was found between the ambulatory IMC-based and laboratory-based estimates of back load. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrative modeling approach for the efficient estimation of cross sectional tibial stresses during locomotion.

PubMed

Derrick, Timothy R; Edwards, W Brent; Fellin, Rebecca E; Seay, Joseph F

2016-02-08

The purpose of this research was to utilize a series of models to estimate the stress in a cross section of the tibia, located 62% from the proximal end, during walking. Twenty-eight male, active duty soldiers walked on an instrumented treadmill while external force data and kinematics were recorded. A rigid body model was used to estimate joint moments and reaction forces. A musculoskeletal model was used to gather muscle length, muscle velocity, moment arm and orientation information. Optimization procedures were used to estimate muscle forces and finally internal bone forces and moments were applied to an inhomogeneous, subject specific bone model obtained from CT scans to estimate stress in the bone cross section. Validity was assessed by comparison to stresses calculated from strain gage data in the literature and sensitivity was investigated using two simplified versions of the bone model-a homogeneous model and an ellipse approximation. Peak compressive stress occurred on the posterior aspect of the cross section (-47.5 ± 14.9 MPa). Peak tensile stress occurred on the anterior aspect (27.0 ± 11.7 MPa) while the location of peak shear was variable between subjects (7.2 ± 2.4 MPa). Peak compressive, tensile and shear stresses were within 0.52 MPa, 0.36 MPa and 3.02 MPa respectively of those calculated from the converted strain gage data. Peak values from a inhomogeneous model of the bone correlated well with homogeneous model (normal: 0.99; shear: 0.94) as did the normal ellipse model (r=0.89-0.96). However, the relationship between shear stress in the inhomogeneous model and ellipse model was less accurate (r=0.64). The procedures detailed in this paper provide a non-invasive and relatively quick method of estimating cross sectional stress that holds promise for assessing injury and osteogenic stimulus in bone during normal physical activity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual peak discharges from small drainage areas in Montana through September 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.V.; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

1977-01-01

Annual peak discharge from small drainage areas is tabulated for 336 sites in Montana. The 1976 additions included data collected at 206 sites. The program which investigates the magnitude and frequency of floods from small drainage areas in Montana, was begun July 1, 1955. Originally 45 crest-stage gaging stations were established. The purpose of the program is to collect sufficient peak-flow data, which through analysis could provide methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at any point in Montana. The ultimate objective is to provide methods for estimating the 100-year flood with the reliability needed for road design. (Woodard-USGS)

Estimated preejection period (PEP) based on the detection of the R-wave and dZ/dt-min peaks in ECG and ICG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lien, René; Schutte, Nienke M.; Meijer, Jan H.; de Geus, Eco J. C.

2013-04-01

The validity of estimating the PEP from a fixed value for the Q-wave onset to the R-wave peak (QR) interval and from the R-wave peak to the dZ/dt-min peak (ISTI) interval is evaluated. Ninety-one subjects participated in a laboratory experiment in which a variety of physical and mental stressors were presented and 31 further subjects participated in a sequence of structured ambulatory activities in which large variation in posture and physical activity was induced. PEP, QR interval, and ISTI were scored. Across the diverse laboratory and ambulatory conditions the QR interval could be approximated by a fixed interval of 40 ms but 95% confidence intervals were large (25 to 54 ms). Multilevel analysis showed that 79% to 81% of the within and between-subject variation in the RB interval could be predicted by the ISTI. However, the optimal intercept and slope values varied significantly across subjects and study setting. Bland-Altman plots revealed a large discrepancy between the estimated PEP and the actual PEP based on the Q-wave onset and B-point. It is concluded that the estimated PEP can be a useful tool but cannot replace the actual PEP to index cardiac sympathetic control.

Electrical source imaging of interictal spikes using multiple sparse volumetric priors for presurgical epileptogenic focus localization

PubMed Central

Strobbe, Gregor; Carrette, Evelien; López, José David; Montes Restrepo, Victoria; Van Roost, Dirk; Meurs, Alfred; Vonck, Kristl; Boon, Paul; Vandenberghe, Stefaan; van Mierlo, Pieter

2016-01-01

Electrical source imaging of interictal spikes observed in EEG recordings of patients with refractory epilepsy provides useful information to localize the epileptogenic focus during the presurgical evaluation. However, the selection of the time points or time epochs of the spikes in order to estimate the origin of the activity remains a challenge. In this study, we consider a Bayesian EEG source imaging technique for distributed sources, i.e. the multiple volumetric sparse priors (MSVP) approach. The approach allows to estimate the time courses of the intensity of the sources corresponding with a specific time epoch of the spike. Based on presurgical averaged interictal spikes in six patients who were successfully treated with surgery, we estimated the time courses of the source intensities for three different time epochs: (i) an epoch starting 50 ms before the spike peak and ending at 50% of the spike peak during the rising phase of the spike, (ii) an epoch starting 50 ms before the spike peak and ending at the spike peak and (iii) an epoch containing the full spike time period starting 50 ms before the spike peak and ending 230 ms after the spike peak. To identify the primary source of the spike activity, the source with the maximum energy from 50 ms before the spike peak till 50% of the spike peak was subsequently selected for each of the time windows. For comparison, the activity at the spike peaks and at 50% of the peaks was localized using the LORETA inversion technique and an ECD approach. Both patient-specific spherical forward models and patient-specific 5-layered finite difference models were considered to evaluate the influence of the forward model. Based on the resected zones in each of the patients, extracted from post-operative MR images, we compared the distances to the resection border of the estimated activity. Using the spherical models, the distances to the resection border for the MSVP approach and each of the different time epochs were in the same range as the LORETA and ECD techniques. We found distances smaller than 23 mm, with robust results for all the patients. For the finite difference models, we found that the distances to the resection border for the MSVP inversions of the full spike time epochs were generally smaller compared to the MSVP inversions of the time epochs before the spike peak. The results also suggest that the inversions using the finite difference models resulted in slightly smaller distances to the resection border compared to the spherical models. The results we obtained are promising because the MSVP approach allows to study the network of the estimated source-intensities and allows to characterize the spatial extent of the underlying sources. PMID:26958464

On the role of modeling choices in estimation of cerebral aneurysm wall tension.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Manasi; Laakso, Aki; Harbaugh, Robert E; Raghavan, Madhavan L

2012-11-15

To assess various approaches to estimating pressure-induced wall tension in intracranial aneurysms (IA) and their effect on the stratification of subjects in a study population. Three-dimensional models of 26 IAs (9 ruptured and 17 unruptured) were segmented from Computed Tomography Angiography (CTA) images. Wall tension distributions in these patient-specific geometric models were estimated based on various approaches such as differences in morphological detail utilized or modeling choices made. For all subjects in the study population, the peak wall tension was estimated using all investigated approaches and were compared to a reference approach-nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis using the Fung anisotropic model with regionally varying material fiber directions. Comparisons between approaches were focused toward assessing the similarity in stratification of IAs within the population based on peak wall tension. The stratification of IAs tension deviated to some extent from the reference approach as less geometric detail was incorporated. Interestingly, the size of the cerebral aneurysm as captured by a single size measure was the predominant determinant of peak wall tension-based stratification. Within FE approaches, simplifications to isotropy, material linearity and geometric linearity caused a gradual deviation from the reference estimates, but it was minimal and resulted in little to no impact on stratifications of IAs. Differences in modeling choices made without patient-specificity in parameters of such models had little impact on tension-based IA stratification in this population. Increasing morphological detail did impact the estimated peak wall tension, but size was the predominant determinant. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SAM 2.1—A computer program for plotting and formatting surveying data for estimating peak discharges by the slope-area method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hortness, J.E.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures discharge in streams using several methods. However, measurement of peak discharges is often impossible or impractical due to difficult access, inherent danger of making measurements during flood events, and timing often associated with flood events. Thus, many peak discharge values often are calculated after the fact by use of indirect methods. The most common indirect method for estimating peak dis- charges in streams is the slope-area method. This, like other indirect methods, requires measuring the flood profile through detailed surveys. Processing the survey data for efficient entry into computer streamflow models can be time demanding; SAM 2.1 is a program designed to expedite that process. The SAM 2.1 computer program is designed to be run in the field on a portable computer. The program processes digital surveying data obtained from an electronic surveying instrument during slope- area measurements. After all measurements have been completed, the program generates files to be input into the SAC (Slope-Area Computation program; Fulford, 1994) or HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System; Brunner, 2001) computer streamflow models so that an estimate of the peak discharge can be calculated.

A new visually evoked cerebral blood flow response analysis using a low-frequency estimation.

PubMed

Rey, Beatriz; Naranjo, Valery; Parkhutik, Vera; Tembl, José; Alcañiz, Mariano

2010-03-01

Transcranial Doppler (TCD) has been widely used to monitor cerebral blood flow velocity (BFV) during the performance of cognitive tasks compared with repose periods. Although one of its main advantages is its high temporal resolution, only some of the previous functional TCD studies have focused on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the BFV signal and none of them has performed a spectral analysis of the signal. In this study, maximum BFV data in both posterior cerebral arteries was monitored during a visual perception task (10 cycles of alternating darkness and illumination) for 23 subjects. A peak was located in the low-frequency band of the spectrum of the maximum BFV of each subject both during visual stimulation and repose periods. The frequency of this peak was in the range between 0.037 and 0.098Hz, depending on the subject, the vessel and the experimental condition. The component of the signal at this frequency, which is associated with the slow variations caused by the visual stimuli, was estimated. That way, the variations in BFV caused by the experimental stimuli were isolated from the variations caused by other factors. This low-frequency estimation signal was used to obtain parameters about the temporal evolution and the magnitude variations of the BFV in a reliable way, thus, characterizing the neurovascular coupling of the participants. Copyright 2010 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, Victor; Wahr, John; Fukumori, Ichiro; Song, Yuhe T.

2006-01-01

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003 - November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cm(sub H2O) (1 cm(sub H2O) similar to 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cm(sub H2O) estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) (1.1 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv ( Sv equivalent to 10(exp 6) m(exp 3) s(exp -1)) of barotropic transport variability per cm(sub H2O) of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40 de - 65 deg S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, Victor; Wahr, John; Fukumori, Ichiro; Song, Yuhe T.

2007-01-01

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003-November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cmH2O (1 cmH2O approx. 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cmH2O estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cmH2O (1.1 and 0.6 cmH2O with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv (Sv equiv 10(exp 6)cu m/s) of barotropic transport variability per cmH2O of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40(deg)- 65(deg)S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

Interaction of Lightning Electromagnetic Pulse with the Ionosphere as Inferred from Wideband Measurements and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somu, Vijaya Bhaskar

Apparent ionospheric reflection heights estimated using the zero-to-zero and peak-to-peak methods to measure skywave delay relative to the groundwave were compared for 108 first and 124 subsequent strokes observed at LOG in 2009. For either metric there was a considerable decrease in average re ection height for subsequent strokes relative to first strokes. Median uncertainties in daytime re ection heights did not exceed 0.7 km. The standard errors in mean re ection heights were less than 3% of the mean value. Apparent changes in re ection height (estimated using the peak-to-peak method) within individual ashes for 54 daytime and 11 nighttime events at distances ranging from 50 km to 330 km were compared. For daytime conditions, the majority of the ashes showed a monotonic decrease in re ection height. For nighttime ashes, the monotonic decrease was found to be considerably less frequent. The apparent ionospheric re ection height tends to increase with return-stroke peak current. In order to increase the sample size for nighttime conditions, additional data for 43 nighttime flashes observed at LOG in 2014 were analyzed. The "fast-break-point" method of measuring skywave delay (McDonald et al., 1979) was additionally used. The 2014 results for return strokes are generally consistent with the 2009 results. The 2014 data were also used for estimating ionospheric re ection heights for elevated sources (6 CIDs and 3 PB pulses) using the double-skywave feature. The results were compared with re ection heights estimated for corresponding return strokes (if any), and fairly good agreement was generally found. It has been shown, using two different FDTD simulation codes, that the observed differences in re ection height cannot be explained by the difference in the frequency content of first and subsequent return-stroke currents. FDTD simulations showed that within 200 km the re ection heights estimated using the peak-to-peak method are close to the hOE parameter of the ionospheric profile for both daytime and nighttime conditions and for both first and second skywaves. The TL model was used to estimate the radial extent of elves produced by the interaction of LEMP with the ionosphere as a function of return-stroke peak current. For a peak current of 100 kA and the speed equal to one-half of the speed of light, the expected radius of elves is 157 km. Skywaves associated with 24 return strokes in 6 lightning ashes triggered at CB in 2015 and recorded at LOG (at a distance of 45 km from CB) were not found for any of the strokes recorded. In contrast, natural-lightning strokes do produce skywaves at comparable distances. One possible reason is the difference in the higher-frequency content (field waveforms for triggered lightning are more narrow than for natural lightning).

Diurnal variations in optical depth at Mars: Observations and interpretations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colburn, D. S.; Pollack, J. B.; Haberle, R. M.

1988-01-01

Viking lander camera images of the Sun were used to compute atmospheric optical depth at two sites over a period of 1 to 1/3 martian years. The complete set of 1044 optical depth determinations is presented in graphical and tabular form. Error estimates are presented in detail. Optical depths in the morning (AM) are generally larger than in the afternoon (PM). The AM-PM differences are ascribed to condensation of water vapor into atmospheric ice aerosols at night and their evaporation in midday. A smoothed time series of these differences shows several seasonal peaks. These are simulated using a one-dimensional radiative convective model which predicts martial atmospheric temperature profiles. A calculation combining these profiles with water vapor measurements from the Mars Atmospheric Water Detector is used to predict when the diurnal variations of water condensation should occur. The model reproduces a majority of the observed peaks and shows the factors influencing the process. Diurnal variation of condensation is shown to peak when the latitude and season combine to warm the atmosphere to the optimum temperature, cool enough to condense vapor at night and warm enough to cause evaporation at midday.

The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

2017-12-01

Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

Hubbert's Peak -- A Physicist's View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Richard

2011-04-01

Oil, as used in agriculture and transportation, is the lifeblood of modern society. It is finite in quantity and will someday be exhausted. In 1956, Hubbert proposed a theory of resource production and applied it successfully to predict peak U.S. oil production in 1970. Bartlett extended this work in publications and lectures on the finite nature of oil and its production peak and depletion. Both Hubbert and Bartlett place peak world oil production at a similar time, essentially now. Central to these analyses are estimates of total ``oil in place'' obtained from engineering studies of oil reservoirs as this quantity determines the area under the Hubbert's Peak. Knowing the production history and the total oil in place allows us to make estimates of reserves, and therefore future oil availability. We will then examine reserves data for various countries, in particular OPEC countries, and see if these data tell us anything about the future availability of oil. Finally, we will comment on synthetic oil and the possibility of carbon-neutral synthetic oil for a sustainable future.

Estimating Equivalency of Explosives Through A Thermochemical Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maienschein, J L

2002-07-08

The Cheetah thermochemical computer code provides an accurate method for estimating the TNT equivalency of any explosive, evaluated either with respect to peak pressure or the quasi-static pressure at long time in a confined volume. Cheetah calculates the detonation energy and heat of combustion for virtually any explosive (pure or formulation). Comparing the detonation energy for an explosive with that of TNT allows estimation of the TNT equivalency with respect to peak pressure, while comparison of the heat of combustion allows estimation of TNT equivalency with respect to quasi-static pressure. We discuss the methodology, present results for many explosives, andmore » show comparisons with equivalency data from other sources.« less

Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions.

PubMed

Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

2013-06-18

Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1° × 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios.

Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

PubMed Central

Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

2013-01-01

Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios. PMID:23659377

Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2009-01-01

A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than the flood stage indicated in the flood-insurance study flood profile at that station. Equations for estimating the flow magnitudes for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year floods were developed from the relation of the magnitude of flood flows to drainage area calculated from the six streamflow-gaging stations with the longest unaltered record. These equations produced a more conservative estimate of flood flows (higher discharges) than the existing regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged rivers in Massachusetts. Large differences in the magnitude of flood flows for various return intervals determined in this study compared to results from existing regional equations and flood insurance studies indicate a need for updating regional analyses and equations for estimating the expected magnitude of flood flows in Massachusetts.

An organic record of terrestrial ecosystem collapse and recovery at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary in East Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williford, Kenneth H.; Grice, Kliti; Holman, Alexander; McElwain, Jennifer C.

2014-02-01

Terrestrial ecosystem collapse at the end of the Triassic Period coincided with a major mass extinction in the marine realm and has been linked to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and fire activity. Extractable hydrocarbons in samples from the fluvial Triassic-Jurassic boundary section at Astartekløft, East Greenland were analyzed to investigate the molecular and isotopic organic record of biotic and environmental change during this event. Carbon isotopic compositions of individual plant wax lipids show a >4‰ negative excursion coinciding with peak extinction and a further decrease of 2‰ coinciding with peak pCO2 as estimated from the stomatal indices of fossil Gingkoales. An increase of ˜30‰ in the hydrogen isotopic compositions of the same plant wax lipids coincides with ecosystem collapse, suggesting that the biotic crisis was accompanied by strong hydrologic change. Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons related to combustion also increase together with abrupt plant diversity loss and peak with fossil charcoal abundance and maximum plant turnover, supporting the role of fire in terrestrial extinctions. Anomalously high concentrations of a monoaromatic diterpenoid related to gymnosperm resin derivatives (and similar to dehydroabietane) occur uniquely in samples from the boundary bed, indicating that environmental stress factors leading to peak plant extinction stimulated increased resin production, and that plant resin derivatives may be effective biomarkers of terrestrial ecosystem stress.

Obtaining reliable phase-gradient delays from otoacoustic emission data.

PubMed

Shera, Christopher A; Bergevin, Christopher

2012-08-01

Reflection-source otoacoustic emission phase-gradient delays are widely used to obtain noninvasive estimates of cochlear function and properties, such as the sharpness of mechanical tuning and its variation along the length of the cochlear partition. Although different data-processing strategies are known to yield different delay estimates and trends, their relative reliability has not been established. This paper uses in silico experiments to evaluate six methods for extracting delay trends from reflection-source otoacoustic emissions (OAEs). The six methods include both previously published procedures (e.g., phase smoothing, energy-weighting, data exclusion based on signal-to-noise ratio) and novel strategies (e.g., peak-picking, all-pass factorization). Although some of the methods perform well (e.g., peak-picking), others introduce substantial bias (e.g., phase smoothing) and are not recommended. In addition, since standing waves caused by multiple internal reflection can complicate the interpretation and compromise the application of OAE delays, this paper develops and evaluates two promising signal-processing strategies, the first based on time-frequency filtering using the continuous wavelet transform and the second on cepstral analysis, for separating the direct emission from its subsequent reflections. Altogether, the results help to resolve previous disagreements about the frequency dependence of human OAE delays and the sharpness of cochlear tuning while providing useful analysis methods for future studies.

Near-fault peak ground velocity from earthquake and laboratory data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

2007-01-01

We test the hypothesis that peak ground velocity (PGV) has an upper bound independent of earthquake magnitude and that this bound is controlled primarily by the strength of the seismogenic crust. The highest PGVs, ranging up to several meters per second, have been measured at sites within a few kilometers of the causative faults. Because the database for near-fault PGV is small, we use earthquake slip models, laboratory experiments, and evidence from a mining-induced earthquake to investigate the factors influencing near-fault PGV and the nature of its scaling. For each earthquake slip model we have calculated the peak slip rates for all subfaults and then chosen the maximum of these rates as an estimate of twice the largest near-fault PGV. Nine slip models for eight earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 7.6, yielded maximum peak slip rates ranging from 2.3 to 12 m/sec with a median of 5.9 m/sec. By making several adjustments, PGVs for small earthquakes can be simulated from peak slip rates measured during laboratory stick-slip experiments. First, we adjust the PGV for differences in the state of stress (i.e., the difference between the laboratory loading stresses and those appropriate for faults at seismogenic depths). To do this, we multiply both the slip and the peak slip rate by the ratio of the effective normal stresses acting on fault planes measured at 6.8 km depth at the KTB site, Germany (deepest available in situ stress measurements), to those acting on the laboratory faults. We also adjust the seismic moment by replacing the laboratory fault with a buried circular shear crack whose radius is chosen to match the experimental unloading stiffness. An additional, less important adjustment is needed for experiments run in triaxial loading conditions. With these adjustments, peak slip rates for 10 stick-slip events, with scaled moment magnitudes from -2.9 to 1.0, range from 3.3 to 10.3 m/sec, with a median of 5.4 m/sec. Both the earthquake and laboratory results are consistent with typical maximum peak slip rates averaging between 5 and 6 m/sec or corresponding maximum near-fault PGVs between 2.5 and 3 m/sec at seismogenic depths, independent of magnitude. Our ability to replicate maximum slip rates in the fault zones of earthquakes by adjusting the corresponding laboratory rates using the ratio of effective normal stresses acting on the fault planes suggests that the strength of the seismogenic crust is the important factor limiting the near-fault PGV.

Comparing methods for measuring peak look duration: are individual differences observed on screen-based tasks also found in more ecologically valid contexts?

PubMed

Wass, Sam V

2014-08-01

Convergent research points to the importance of studying the ontogenesis of sustained attention during the early years of life, but little research hitherto has compared and contrasted different techniques available for measuring sustained attention. Here, we compare methods that have been used to assess one parameter of sustained attention, namely infants' peak look duration to novel stimuli. Our focus was to assess whether individual differences in peak look duration are stable across different measurement techniques. In a single cohort of 42 typically developing 11-month-old infants we assessed peak look duration using six different measurement paradigms (four screen-based, two naturalistic). Zero-order correlations suggested that individual differences in peak look duration were stable across all four screen-based paradigms, but no correlations were found between peak look durations observed on the screen-based and the naturalistic paradigms. A factor analysis conducted on the dependent variable of peak look duration identified two factors. All four screen-based tasks loaded onto the first factor, but the two naturalistic tasks did not relate, and mapped onto a different factor. Our results question how individual differences observed on screen-based tasks manifest in more ecologically valid contexts. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing methods for measuring peak look duration: Are individual differences observed on screen-based tasks also found in more ecologically valid contexts?

PubMed Central

Wass, Sam V.

2014-01-01

Convergent research points to the importance of studying the ontogenesis of sustained attention during the early years of life, but little research hitherto has compared and contrasted different techniques available for measuring sustained attention. Here, we compare methods that have been used to assess one parameter of sustained attention, namely infants’ peak look duration to novel stimuli. Our focus was to assess whether individual differences in peak look duration are stable across different measurement techniques. In a single cohort of 42 typically developing 11-month-old infants we assessed peak look duration using six different measurement paradigms (four screen-based, two naturalistic). Zero-order correlations suggested that individual differences in peak look duration were stable across all four screen-based paradigms, but no correlations were found between peak look durations observed on the screen-based and the naturalistic paradigms. A factor analysis conducted on the dependent variable of peak look duration identified two factors. All four screen-based tasks loaded onto the first factor, but the two naturalistic tasks did not relate, and mapped onto a different factor. Our results question how individual differences observed on screen-based tasks manifest in more ecologically valid contexts. PMID:24905901

Methods for estimating properties of hydrocarbons comprising asphaltenes based on their solubility

DOEpatents

Schabron, John F.; Rovani, Jr., Joseph F.

2016-10-04

Disclosed herein is a method of estimating a property of a hydrocarbon comprising the steps of: preparing a liquid sample of a hydrocarbon, the hydrocarbon having asphaltene fractions therein; precipitating at least some of the asphaltenes of a hydrocarbon from the liquid sample with one or more precipitants in a chromatographic column; dissolving at least two of the different asphaltene fractions from the precipitated asphaltenes during a successive dissolution protocol; eluting the at least two different dissolved asphaltene fractions from the chromatographic column; monitoring the amount of the fractions eluted from the chromatographic column; using detected signals to calculate a percentage of a peak area for a first of the asphaltene fractions and a peak area for a second of the asphaltene fractions relative to the total peak areas, to determine a parameter that relates to the property of the hydrocarbon; and estimating the property of the hydrocarbon.

Accuracy of visual estimates of joint angle and angular velocity using criterion movements.

PubMed

Morrison, Craig S; Knudson, Duane; Clayburn, Colby; Haywood, Philip

2005-06-01

A descriptive study to document undergraduate physical education majors' (22.8 +/- 2.4 yr. old) estimates of sagittal plane elbow angle and angular velocity of elbow flexion visually was performed. 42 subjects rated videotape replays of 30 movements organized into three speeds of movement and two criterion elbow angles. Video images of the movements were analyzed with Peak Motus to measure actual values of elbow angles and peak angular velocity. Of the subjects 85.7% had speed ratings significantly correlated with true peak elbow angular velocity in all three angular velocity conditions. Few (16.7%) subjects' ratings of elbow angle correlated significantly with actual angles. Analysis of the subjects with good ratings showed the accuracy of visual ratings was significantly related to speed, with decreasing accuracy for slower speeds of movement. The use of criterion movements did not improve the small percentage of novice observers who could accurately estimate body angles during movement.

Crest-stage gaging stations in Oregon: a compilation of peak data collected from October 1952 to September 1974

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friday, John

1974-01-01

A crest-stage gaging station provides an excellent means for determining peak water-surface elevations at a selected location on a stream channel. When related to streamflow, these data provide hydrologists with a knowledge of the flood experience of a drainage basin. If an adequate flood history is known, it is possible to estimate the probable magnitude and frequency of floods likely to occur in that basin, and this information is a valuable asset to anyone who must estimate design floods at proposed drainage structures. However, most design problems involve estimating peak flows on ungaged streams. This is difficult because the rate of storm runoff is not the same in all basins due to the influence of various basin characteristics which can either assist or retard the runoff. The crest-stage gaging program in Oregon is designed to provide a representative sampliing of peak flows at basins having a wide range in characteristics. Then, after sufficient data are collected, a statistical analysis can be made which will provide a means for estimating design floods at ungaged sites on the basis of known basin characteristics.This report is one of a series presenting a compilation of peak data collected at 232 crest-stage gaging stations in Oregon. The collection and publication of these data are made possible through mutual funding by State and Federal agencies. The Geological Survey, the Oregon State Highway Commission, the Federal Highway Administration, and the Bureau of Land Management are currently supporting 160 active crest-stage stations in Oregon.

Inhalation and Ingestion Intakes with Associated Dose Estimates for Level II and Level III Personnel Using Capstone Study Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szrom, Fran; Falo, Gerald A.; Lodde, Gordon M.

2009-03-01

Depleted uranium (DU) intake rates and subsequent dose rates were estimated for personnel entering armored combat vehicles perforated with DU penetrators (level II and level III personnel) using data generated during the Capstone Depleted Uranium (DU) Aerosol Study. Inhalation intake rates and associated dose rates were estimated from cascade impactors worn by sample recovery personnel and from cascade impactors that served as area monitors. Ingestion intake rates and associated dose rates were estimated from cotton gloves worn by sample recovery personnel and from wipe test samples from the interior of vehicles perforated with large caliber DU munitions. The mean DUmore » inhalation intake rate for level II personnel ranged from 0.447 mg h-1 based on breathing zone monitor data (in and around a perforated vehicle) to 14.5 mg h-1 based on area monitor data (in a perforated vehicle). The mean DU ingestion intake rate for level II ranged from 4.8 mg h-1 to 38.9 mg h-1 based on the wipe test data including surface to glove transfer factors derived from the Capstone data. Based on glove contamination data, the mean DU ingestion intake rates for level II and level III personnel were 10.6 mg h-1 was and 1.78 mg h-1, respectively. Effective dose rates and peak kidney uranium concentration rates were calculated based on the intake rates. The peak kidney uranium concentration rate cannot be multiplied by the total exposure duration when multiple intakes occur because uranium will clear from the kidney between the exposures.« less

Strain, curvature, and twist measurements in digital holographic interferometry using pseudo-Wigner-Ville distribution based method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rajshekhar, G.; Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

2009-09-15

Measurement of strain, curvature, and twist of a deformed object play an important role in deformation analysis. Strain depends on the first order displacement derivative, whereas curvature and twist are determined by second order displacement derivatives. This paper proposes a pseudo-Wigner-Ville distribution based method for measurement of strain, curvature, and twist in digital holographic interferometry where the object deformation or displacement is encoded as interference phase. In the proposed method, the phase derivative is estimated by peak detection of pseudo-Wigner-Ville distribution evaluated along each row/column of the reconstructed interference field. A complex exponential signal with unit amplitude and the phasemore » derivative estimate as the argument is then generated and the pseudo-Wigner-Ville distribution along each row/column of this signal is evaluated. The curvature is estimated by using peak tracking strategy for the new distribution. For estimation of twist, the pseudo-Wigner-Ville distribution is evaluated along each column/row (i.e., in alternate direction with respect to the previous one) for the generated complex exponential signal and the corresponding peak detection gives the twist estimate.« less

Estimating generalized skew of the log-Pearson Type III distribution for annual peak floods in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oberg, Kevin A.; Mades, Dean M.

1987-01-01

Four techniques for estimating generalized skew in Illinois were evaluated: (1) a generalized skew map of the US; (2) an isoline map; (3) a prediction equation; and (4) a regional-mean skew. Peak-flow records at 730 gaging stations having 10 or more annual peaks were selected for computing station skews. Station skew values ranged from -3.55 to 2.95, with a mean of -0.11. Frequency curves computed for 30 gaging stations in Illinois using the variations of the regional-mean skew technique are similar to frequency curves computed using a skew map developed by the US Water Resources Council (WRC). Estimates of the 50-, 100-, and 500-yr floods computed for 29 of these gaging stations using the regional-mean skew techniques are within the 50% confidence limits of frequency curves computed using the WRC skew map. Although the three variations of the regional-mean skew technique were slightly more accurate than the WRC map, there is no appreciable difference between flood estimates computed using the variations of the regional-mean technique and flood estimates computed using the WRC skew map. (Peters-PTT)

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm), which is a statistically common (high probability) storm. The Big Cottonwood Creek site is downstream from the Hayden Pass Fire burn area, which dramatically altered the hydrology of the watershed and caused this statistically rare (low probability) flood from a statistically common (high probability) storm. The peak flood stage at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 50 culvert was 6,438.32 feet (ft) above the North American Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).The August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site had an estimated annual exceedance probability of 0.5505 (return period equal to the 1.8-year flood). The August 29, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm). The peak stage during this flood at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 24 bridge was 5,832.89 ft (NAVD 88).Slope-area indirect discharge measurements were carried out at the Big Cottonwood Creek and Fountain Creek sites to estimate peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood and August 29, 2016, flood, respectively. The USGS computer program Slope-Area Computation Graphical User Interface was used to compute the peak discharge by adding the surveyed cross sections with Manning roughness coefficient assignments to the high-water marks. The Manning roughness coefficients for each cross section were estimated in the field using the Cowan method.

Development and validation of a simulation method, PeCHREM, for evaluating spatio-temporal concentration changes of paddy herbicides in rivers.

PubMed

Imaizumi, Yoshitaka; Suzuki, Noriyuki; Shiraishi, Fujio; Nakajima, Daisuke; Serizawa, Shigeko; Sakurai, Takeo; Shiraishi, Hiroaki

2018-01-24

In pesticide risk management in Japan, predicted environmental concentrations are estimated by a tiered approach, and the Ministry of the Environment also performs field surveys to confirm the maximum concentrations of pesticides with risk concerns. To contribute to more efficient and effective field surveys, we developed the Pesticide Chemicals High Resolution Estimation Method (PeCHREM) for estimating spatially and temporally variable emissions of various paddy herbicides from paddy fields to the environment. We used PeCHREM and the G-CIEMS multimedia environmental fate model to predict day-to-day environmental concentration changes of 25 herbicides throughout Japan. To validate the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model, we also conducted a field survey, in which river waters were sampled at least once every two weeks at seven sites in six prefectures from April to July 2009. In 20 of 139 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicides were detected in at least three samples, all observed concentrations differed from the corresponding prediction by less than one order of magnitude. We also compared peak concentrations and the dates on which the concentrations reached peak values (peak dates) between predictions and observations. The peak concentration differences between predictions and observations were less than one order of magnitude in 66% of the 166 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicide was detected in river water. The observed and predicted peak dates differed by less than two weeks in 79% of these 166 combinations. These results confirm that the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of surveys by predicting the peak concentrations and peak dates of various herbicides.

Dynamic deformations of shallow sediments in the Valley of Mexico, Part II: Single-station estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singh, S.K.; Santoyo, M.; Bodin, P.; Gomberg, J.

1997-01-01

We develop simple relations to estimate dynamic displacement gradients (and hence the strains and rotations) during earthquakes in the lake-bed zone of the Valley of Mexico, where the presence of low-velocity, high-water content clays in the uppermost layers cause dramatic amplification of seismic waves and large strains. The study uses results from a companion article (Bodin et al., 1997) in which the data from an array at Roma, a lake-bed site, were analyzed to obtain displacement gradients. In this article, we find that the deformations at other lake-bed sites may differ from those at Roma by a factor of 2 to 3. More accurate estimates of the dominant components of the deformation at an individual instrumented lake-bed site may be obtained from the maximum horizontal velocity and displacement, ??max and umax, at the surface. The maximum surface strain ??max is related to ??max by ??max = ??max/C, with C ??? 0.6 km/sec. From the analysis of data from sites equipped with surface and borehole sensors, we find that the vertical gradient of peak horizontal displacement (??umax/??z) computed from sensors at 0 and 30 m equals (umax)z = 0/??z, ??z = 30 m, within a factor of 1.5. This is the largest gradient component, and the latter simple relation permits its estimation from surface records alone. The observed profiles of umax versus depth suggest a larger gradient in some depth range of 10 to 20 m, in agreement with synthetic calculations presented in Bodin et al. (1997). From the free-field recordings of the 19 September 1985 Michoacan earthquake, we estimate a maximum surface strain, ??max, between 0.05% and 0.11%, and a lower bound for the peak vertical gradient (??umax/??z) between 0.3% and 1.3%. This implies that (1) the extensive failure of water pipe joints during the Michoacan earthquake in the valley occurred at axial strains of about 0.1%, not 0.38% as previously reported, and (2) the clays of the valley behave almost linearly even at shear strain of about 1%, in agreement with laboratory tests. The available data in the valley can be used to predict deformations during future earthquakes using self-similar earthquake scaling.

Sources, distribution and export coefficient of phosphorus in lowland polders of Lake Taihu Basin, China.

PubMed

Huang, Jiacong; Gao, Junfeng; Jiang, Yong; Yin, Hongbin; Amiri, Bahman Jabbarian

2017-12-01

Identifying phosphorus (P) sources, distribution and export from lowland polders is important for P pollution management, however, is challenging due to the high complexity of hydrological and P transport processes in lowland areas. In this study, the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of P export coefficient (PEC) from all the 2539 polders in Lake Taihu Basin, China were estimated using a coupled P model for describing P dynamics in a polder system. The estimated amount of P export from polders in Lake Taihu Basin during 2013 was 1916.2 t/yr, with a spatially-averaged PEC of 1.8 kg/ha/yr. PEC had peak values (more than 4.0 kg/ha/yr) in the polders near/within the large cities, and was high during the rice-cropping season. Sensitivity analysis based on the coupled P model revealed that the sensitive factors controlling the PEC varied spatially and changed through time. Precipitation and air temperature were the most sensitive factors controlling PEC. Culvert controlling and fertilization were sensitive factors controlling PEC during some periods. This study demonstrated an estimation of PEC from 2539 polders in Lake Taihu Basin, and an identification of sensitive environmental factors affecting PEC. The investigation of polder P export in a watershed scale is helpful for water managers to learn the distribution of P sources, to identify key P sources, and thus to achieve best management practice in controlling P export from lowland areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of increased urbanization from 1970's to 1990's on storm-runoff characteristics in Perris Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, J.R.

1996-01-01

Urban areas in Perris Valley, California, have more than tripled during the last 20 years. To quantify the effects of increased urbanization on storm runoff volumes and peak discharges, rainfall-runoff models of the basin were developed to simulate runoff for 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. Hourly rainfall data for 1949-93 were used with the rainfall-runoff models to simulate a long-term record of storm runoff. The hydrologic effects of increased urbanization from 1970-75 to 1990-93 were analyzed by comparing the simulated annual peak discharges and volumes, and storm runoff peaks, frequency of annual peak discharges and runoff volumes, and duration of storm peak discharges for each study period. A Log-Pearson Type-III frequency analysis was calculated using the simulated annual peaks to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals. The estimated 2-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was 646 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 conditions and 1,328 cubic feet per second for the 1990-93 conditions. The 100-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was about 14,000 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. The station duration analysis used 925 model-simulated storm peaks from each basin to estimate the percent chance a peak discharge is exceeded. At the outlet of the basin, the chances of exceeding 100 cubic feet per second were about 33 percent under 1970-75 conditions and about 59 percent under 1990-93 conditions. The chance of exceeding 2,500 cubic feet per second at the outlet of the basin was less than 1 percent higher under the 1990-93 conditions than under the 1970-75 conditions. The increase in urbanization from the early 1970's to the early 1990's more than doubled the peak discharges with a 2-year return period. However, peak discharges with return periods greater than 50 years were not significantly affected by the change in urbanization.

Big data prediction of durations for online collective actions based on peak's timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Shizhao; Wang, Zheng; Pujia, Wangmo; Nie, Yuan; Lu, Peng

2018-02-01

Peak Model states that each collective action has a life circle, which contains four periods of "prepare", "outbreak", "peak", and "vanish"; and the peak determines the max energy and the whole process. The peak model's re-simulation indicates that there seems to be a stable ratio between the peak's timing (TP) and the total span (T) or duration of collective actions, which needs further validations through empirical data of collective actions. Therefore, the daily big data of online collective actions is applied to validate the model; and the key is to check the ratio between peak's timing and the total span. The big data is obtained from online data recording & mining of websites. It is verified by the empirical big data that there is a stable ratio between TP and T; furthermore, it seems to be normally distributed. This rule holds for both the general cases and the sub-types of collective actions. Given the distribution of the ratio, estimated probability density function can be obtained, and therefore the span can be predicted via the peak's timing. Under the scenario of big data, the instant span (how long the collective action lasts or when it ends) will be monitored and predicted in real-time. With denser data (Big Data), the estimation of the ratio's distribution gets more robust, and the prediction of collective actions' spans or durations will be more accurate.

Peak picking NMR spectral data using non-negative matrix factorization.

PubMed

Tikole, Suhas; Jaravine, Victor; Rogov, Vladimir; Dötsch, Volker; Güntert, Peter

2014-02-11

Simple peak-picking algorithms, such as those based on lineshape fitting, perform well when peaks are completely resolved in multidimensional NMR spectra, but often produce wrong intensities and frequencies for overlapping peak clusters. For example, NOESY-type spectra have considerable overlaps leading to significant peak-picking intensity errors, which can result in erroneous structural restraints. Precise frequencies are critical for unambiguous resonance assignments. To alleviate this problem, a more sophisticated peaks decomposition algorithm, based on non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), was developed. We produce peak shapes from Fourier-transformed NMR spectra. Apart from its main goal of deriving components from spectra and producing peak lists automatically, the NMF approach can also be applied if the positions of some peaks are known a priori, e.g. from consistently referenced spectral dimensions of other experiments. Application of the NMF algorithm to a three-dimensional peak list of the 23 kDa bi-domain section of the RcsD protein (RcsD-ABL-HPt, residues 688-890) as well as to synthetic HSQC data shows that peaks can be picked accurately also in spectral regions with strong overlap.

Estimation of the supplementary axial wall stress generated at peak flow by an arterial stenosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doriot, Pierre-André

2003-01-01

Mechanical stresses in arterial walls are known to be implicated in the development of atherosclerosis. While shear stress and circumferential stress have received a lot of attention, axial stress has not. Yet, stenoses can be intuitively expected to produce a supplementary axial stress during flow systole in the region immediately proximal to the constriction cone. In this paper, a model for the estimation of this effect is presented, and ten numerical examples are computed. These examples show that the cyclic increase in axial stress can be quite considerable in severe stenoses (typically 120% or more of the normal stress value). This result is in best agreement with the known mechanical or morphological risk factors of stenosis progression and restenosis (hypertension, elevated pulse pressure, degree of stenosis, stenosis geometry, residual stenosis, etc). The supplementary axial stress generated by a stenosis might create the damages in the endothelium and in the elastic membranes which potentiate the action of the other risk factors (hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, etc). It could thus be an important cause of stenosis progression and of restenosis.

Spatially and temporally variable fire regime on Rincon Peak, Arizona, USA

Treesearch

Jose M. Iniguez; Thomas W. Swetnam; Christopher H. Baisa

2009-01-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire history are affected by factors such as topography, vegetation, and climate. It is unclear, however, how these factors influenced fire history patterns in small isolated forests, such as that found on Rincon Peak, a "sky island" mountain range in southern Arizona, USA. We reconstructed the fire history of Rincon Peak to...

A new multiresponse optimization approach in combination with a D-Optimal experimental design for the determination of biogenic amines in fish by HPLC-FLD.

PubMed

Herrero, A; Sanllorente, S; Reguera, C; Ortiz, M C; Sarabia, L A

2016-11-16

A new strategy to approach multiresponse optimization in conjunction to a D-optimal design for simultaneously optimizing a large number of experimental factors is proposed. The procedure is applied to the determination of biogenic amines (histamine, putrescine, cadaverine, tyramine, tryptamine, 2-phenylethylamine, spermine and spermidine) in swordfish by HPLC-FLD after extraction with an acid and subsequent derivatization with dansyl chloride. Firstly, the extraction from a solid matrix and the derivatization of the extract are optimized. Ten experimental factors involved in both stages are studied, seven of them at two levels and the remaining at three levels; the use of a D-optimal design leads to optimize the ten experimental variables, significantly reducing by a factor of 67 the experimental effort needed but guaranteeing the quality of the estimates. A model with 19 coefficients, which includes those corresponding to the main effects and two possible interactions, is fitted to the peak area of each amine. Then, the validated models are used to predict the response (peak area) of the 3456 experiments of the complete factorial design. The variability among peak areas ranges from 13.5 for 2-phenylethylamine to 122.5 for spermine, which shows, to a certain extent, the high and different effect of the pretreatment on the responses. Then the percentiles are calculated from the peak areas of each amine. As the experimental conditions are in conflict, the optimal solution for the multiresponse optimization is chosen from among those which have all the responses greater than a certain percentile for all the amines. The developed procedure reaches decision limits down to 2.5 μg L -1 for cadaverine or 497 μg L -1 for histamine in solvent and 0.07 mg kg -1 and 14.81 mg kg -1 in fish (probability of false positive equal to 0.05), respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Protein Z efficiently depletes thrombin generation in disseminated intravascular coagulation with poor prognosis.

PubMed

Lee, Nuri; Kim, Ji-Eun; Gu, Ja-Yoon; Yoo, Hyun Ju; Kim, Inho; Yoon, Sung-Soo; Park, Seonyang; Han, Kyou-Sup; Kim, Hyun Kyung

2016-01-01

Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is characterized by consumption of coagulation factors and anticoagulants. Thrombin generation assay (TGA) gives useful information about global hemostatic status. We developed a new TGA system that anticoagulant addition can deplete thrombin generation in plasma, which may reflect defective anticoagulant system in DIC. TGAs were measured on the calibrated automated thrombogram with and without thrombomodulin or protein Z in 152 patients who were suspected of having DIC, yielding four parameters including lag time, endogenous thrombin potential, peak thrombin and time-to-peak in each experiment. Nonsurvivors showed significantly prolonged lag time and time-to-peak in TGA-protein Z system, which was performed with added protein Z. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, lag time and time-to-peak in TGA system were significant independent prognostic factors. In TGA-protein Z system, lag time and time-to-peak were revealed as independent prognostic factors of DIC. Protein Z addition could potentiate its anticoagulant effect in DIC with poor prognosis, suggesting the presence of defective protein Z system. The prolonged lag time and time-to-peak in both TGA and TGA-protein Z systems are expected to be used as independent prognostic factors of DIC.

Floods of March 1978, in the Maumee River basin, northeastern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoggatt, Richard Earl

1981-01-01

Floods in the Maumee River basin in northeastern Indiana in March 1978 resulted in heavy damage in Fort Wayne and surrounding areas. Flood damage in Fort Wayne was estimated by the Mayor to be 11 million dollars. Approximately 15 percent of the city was inundated, and 2,400 of its 190,000 residents were forced to leave their homes. The estimate of damage in Adams and Allen Counties by Civil Defense officials was 44 million dollars. The Maumee River at New Haven exceeded the peak stage of record, 21.4 feet, by 2.2 feet. The peak discharge at this stream-gaging station, 22,400 cubic feet per second, was about equal to that of a 75-year flood. Recurrence intervals of peak flows on streams tributary to the Maumee River ranged from 5 to 50 years. Records of peak and daily discharges and some precipitation data are given in this report. 

Flood of June 11, 2010, in the Upper Little Missouri River watershed, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Wagner, Daniel M.

2011-01-01

Catastrophic flash flooding occurred in the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, in the upper Little Missouri River and tributary streams in southwest Arkansas. The flooding, which resulted in 20 fatalities and substantial property damage, was caused by as much as 4.7 inches of rain falling in the upper Little Missouri River watershed in 3 hours. The 4.7 inches of rain in 3 hours corresponds to estimated annual exceedance probability of approximately 2 percent for a 3-hour duration storm. The maximum total estimated rainfall in the upper Missouri River watershed was 5.3 inches in 6 hours. Peak streamflows and other hydraulic properties were determined at five ungaged locations and one gaged location in the upper Little Missouri River watershed.The peak streamflow for the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike, Arkansas was 40,100 cubic feet per second, estimated to have occurred between 4:00 AM and 4:30 AM the morning of June 11, 2010. The peak streamflow resulted in average water depths in the nearby floodplain (Area C of the Albert Pike Campground) of 7 feet flowing at velocities potentially as great as 11 feet per second. Peak streamflow 9.1 miles downstream on the Little Missouri at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage near Langley, Arkansas was 70,800 cubic feet per second, which corresponds to an estimated annual exceedance probability of less than 1 percent.

Growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and size in CdS nanoparticles: X-ray peak profile analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solanki, Rekha Garg; Rajaram, Poolla; Bajpai, P. K.

2018-05-01

This work is based on the growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and crystallite size in CdS nanoparticles by X-ray peak profile analysis. The CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by a non-aqueous solvothermal method and were characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Raman and UV-visible spectroscopy. XRD confirms that the CdS nanoparticles have the hexagonal structure. The Williamson-Hall (W-H) method was used to study the X-ray peak profile analysis. The strain-size plot (SSP) was used to study the individual contributions of crystallite size and lattice strain from the X-rays peaks. The physical parameters such as strain, stress and energy density values were calculated using various models namely, isotropic strain model, anisotropic strain model and uniform deformation energy density model. The particle size was estimated from the TEM images to be in the range of 20-40 nm. The Raman spectrum shows the characteristic optical 1LO and 2LO vibrational modes of CdS. UV-visible absorption studies show that the band gap of the CdS nanoparticles is 2.48 eV. The results show that the crystallite size estimated from Scherrer's formula, W-H plots, SSP and the particle size calculated by TEM images are approximately similar.

A model to forecast peak spreading.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-04-01

As traffic congestion increases, the K-factor, defined as the proportion of the 24-hour traffic volume that occurs during the peak hour, may decrease. This behavioral response is known as peak spreading: as congestion grows during the peak travel tim...

Agreement between VO[subscript 2peak] Predicted from PACER and One-Mile Run Time-Equated Laps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saint-Maurice, Pedro F.; Anderson, Katelin; Bai, Yang; Welk, Gregory J.

2016-01-01

Purpose: This study examined the agreement between estimated peak oxygen consumption (VO[subscript 2peak]) obtained from the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) fitness test and equated PACER laps derived from One-Mile Run time (MR). Methods: A sample of 680 participants (324 boys and 356 girls) in Grades 7 through 12…

Applications and limitations of constrained high-resolution peak fitting on low resolving power mass spectra from the ToF-ACSM

DOE PAGES

Timonen, Hilkka; Cubison, Mike; Aurela, Minna; ...

2016-07-25

The applicability, methods and limitations of constrained peak fitting on mass spectra of low mass resolving power ( m/Δ m 50~500) recorded with a time-of-flight aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ToF-ACSM) are explored. Calibration measurements as well as ambient data are used to exemplify the methods that should be applied to maximise data quality and assess confidence in peak-fitting results. Sensitivity analyses and basic peak fit metrics such as normalised ion separation are employed to demonstrate which peak-fitting analyses commonly performed in high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometry are appropriate to perform on spectra of this resolving power. Information on aerosol sulfate, nitrate,more » sodium chloride, methanesulfonic acid as well as semi-volatile metal species retrieved from these methods is evaluated. The constants in a commonly used formula for the estimation of the mass concentration of hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol may be refined based on peak-fitting results. Lastly, application of a recently published parameterisation for the estimation of carbon oxidation state to ToF-ACSM spectra is validated for a range of organic standards and its use demonstrated for ambient urban data.« less

Estimated flood peak discharges on Twin, Brock, and Lightning creeks, Southwest Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, May 8, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.

1996-01-01

The flash flood in southwestern Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, May 8, 1993, was the result of an intense 3-hour rainfall on saturated ground or impervious surfaces. The total precipitation of 5.28 inches was close to the 3-hour, 100-year frequency and produced extensive flooding. The most serious flooding was on Twin, Brock, and Lightning Creeks. Four people died in this flood. Over 1,900 structures were damaged along the 3 creeks. There were about $3 million in damages to Oklahoma City public facilities, the majority of which were in the three basins. A study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the May 8, 1993, flood peak discharge in these three creeks in southwestern Oklahoma City and compare these peaks with published flood estimates. Flood peak-discharge estimates for these creeks were determined at 11 study sites using a step-backwater analysis to match the flood water-surface profiles defined by high-water marks. The unit discharges during peak runoff ranged from 881 cubic feet per second per square mile for Lightning Creek at SW 44th Street to 3,570 cubic feet per second per square mile for Brock Creek at SW 59th Street. The ratios of the 1993 flood peak discharges to the Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-year flood peak discharges ranged from 1.25 to 3.29. The water-surface elevations ranged from 0.2 foot to 5.9 feet above the Federal Emergency Management Agency 500-year flood water-surface elevations. The very large flood peaks in these 3 small urban basins were the result of very intense rainfall in a short period of time, close to 100 percent runoff due to ground surfaces being essentially impervious, and the city streets acting as efficient conveyances to the main channels. The unit discharges compare in magnitude to other extraordinary Oklahoma urban floods.

Parametric design of pressure-relieving foot orthosis using statistics-based finite element method.

PubMed

Cheung, Jason Tak-Man; Zhang, Ming

2008-04-01

Custom-molded foot orthoses are frequently prescribed in routine clinical practice to prevent or treat plantar ulcers in diabetes by reducing the peak plantar pressure. However, the design and fabrication of foot orthosis vary among clinical practitioners and manufacturers. Moreover, little information about the parametric effect of different combinations of design factors is available. As an alternative to the experimental approach, therefore, computational models of the foot and footwear can provide efficient evaluations of different combinations of structural and material design factors on plantar pressure distribution. In this study, a combined finite element and Taguchi method was used to identify the sensitivity of five design factors (arch type, insole and midsole thickness, insole and midsole stiffness) of foot orthosis on peak plantar pressure relief. From the FE predictions, the custom-molded shape was found to be the most important design factor in reducing peak plantar pressure. Besides the use of an arch-conforming foot orthosis, the insole stiffness was found to be the second most important factor for peak pressure reduction. Other design factors, such as insole thickness, midsole stiffness and midsole thickness, contributed to less important roles in peak pressure reduction in the given order. The statistics-based FE method was found to be an effective approach in evaluating and optimizing the design of foot orthosis.

Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in Puerto Rico : new empirical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramos-Gines, Orlando

1999-01-01

Flood-peak discharges and frequencies are presented for 57 gaged sites in Puerto Rico for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The log-Pearson Type III distribution, the methodology recommended by the United States Interagency Committee on Water Data, was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at the gaged sites having 10 to 43 years of record. A technique is presented for estimating flood-peak discharges at recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years for unregulated streams in Puerto Rico with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.83 to 208 square miles. Loglinear multiple regression analyses, using climatic and basin characteristics and peak-discharge data from the 57 gaged sites, were used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged to ungaged sites. The equations have contributing drainage area, depth-to-rock, and mean annual rainfall as the basin and climatic characteristics in estimating flood peak discharges. Examples are given to show a step-by-step procedure in calculating a 100-year flood at a gaged site, an ungaged site, a site near a gaged location, and a site between two gaged sites.

Gender differences of suicide in Japan, 1947-2010.

PubMed

Liu, Y; Zhang, Y; Cho, Y T; Obayashi, Y; Arai, A; Tamashiro, H

2013-10-01

The effects of socio-economic factors on suicide were gender-dependent. Japanese suicide mortality gender ratio (male: female) had gradually increased during the twentieth century. With the data covering 1947-2010 collected from Japanese official websites, we conducted non-parametric rank test, curve estimations, spearman ranking correlation and quantile regression in succession with Stata version 12.0. The suicide mortality rate in male with a "U" shape had been always higher than that in female with a "J" shape. The male suicide mortality peaked around in 1955 (38.5 per 100,000 populations), dropped quickly afterwards until the 1970s; it increased in the 1980s with another peak in 2003 (33.2 per 100,000 populations). For female, an overall decreasing trend was seen with a peak during the 1950s (23.5 per 100,000 populations in 1958). It dropped gradually afterwards with small variations in 1970s and 80s, and was stabilized after 1995 (9.3 per 100,000 populations). The unemployment rate could be used as a single positive predictor of suicide mortality for men (p<0.01), while the total fertility rate (TFR) (p<0.01) and divorce rate (p<0.01) were significantly associated positively and negatively with women's suicide, respectively. The impact of mental disorders was not analyzed and age-specific analysis was not conducted. The findings of these gender differences in, and the associated factors with, suicide in Japan, warranted further studies including delineation of the implications of differential economic pressure between genders, as well as child-rearing pressure and marriage satisfaction. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultrasonic tracking of shear waves using a particle filter.

PubMed

Ingle, Atul N; Ma, Chi; Varghese, Tomy

2015-11-01

This paper discusses an application of particle filtering for estimating shear wave velocity in tissue using ultrasound elastography data. Shear wave velocity estimates are of significant clinical value as they help differentiate stiffer areas from softer areas which is an indicator of potential pathology. Radio-frequency ultrasound echo signals are used for tracking axial displacements and obtaining the time-to-peak displacement at different lateral locations. These time-to-peak data are usually very noisy and cannot be used directly for computing velocity. In this paper, the denoising problem is tackled using a hidden Markov model with the hidden states being the unknown (noiseless) time-to-peak values. A particle filter is then used for smoothing out the time-to-peak curve to obtain a fit that is optimal in a minimum mean squared error sense. Simulation results from synthetic data and finite element modeling suggest that the particle filter provides lower mean squared reconstruction error with smaller variance as compared to standard filtering methods, while preserving sharp boundary detail. Results from phantom experiments show that the shear wave velocity estimates in the stiff regions of the phantoms were within 20% of those obtained from a commercial ultrasound scanner and agree with estimates obtained using a standard method using least-squares fit. Estimates of area obtained from the particle filtered shear wave velocity maps were within 10% of those obtained from B-mode ultrasound images. The particle filtering approach can be used for producing visually appealing SWV reconstructions by effectively delineating various areas of the phantom with good image quality properties comparable to existing techniques.

A new NDVI measure that overcomes data sparsity in cloud-covered regions predicts annual variation in ground-based estimates of high arctic plant productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rune Karlsen, Stein; Anderson, Helen B.; van der Wal, René; Bremset Hansen, Brage

2018-02-01

Efforts to estimate plant productivity using satellite data can be frustrated by the presence of cloud cover. We developed a new method to overcome this problem, focussing on the high-arctic archipelago of Svalbard where extensive cloud cover during the growing season can prevent plant productivity from being estimated over large areas. We used a field-based time-series (2000-2009) of live aboveground vascular plant biomass data and a recently processed cloud-free MODIS-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set (2000-2014) to estimate, on a pixel-by-pixel basis, the onset of plant growth. We then summed NDVI values from onset of spring to the average time of peak NDVI to give an estimate of annual plant productivity. This remotely sensed productivity measure was then compared, at two different spatial scales, with the peak plant biomass field data. At both the local scale, surrounding the field data site, and the larger regional scale, our NDVI measure was found to predict plant biomass (adjusted R 2 = 0.51 and 0.44, respectively). The commonly used ‘maximum NDVI’ plant productivity index showed no relationship with plant biomass, likely due to some years having very few cloud-free images available during the peak plant growing season. Thus, we propose this new summed NDVI from onset of spring to time of peak NDVI as a proxy of large-scale plant productivity for regions such as the Arctic where climatic conditions restrict the availability of cloud-free images.

SU-FF-T-668: A Simple Algorithm for Range Modulation Wheel Design in Proton Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nie, X; Nazaryan, Vahagn; Gueye, Paul

2009-06-01

Purpose: To develop a simple algorithm in designing the range modulation wheel to generate a very smooth Spread-Out Bragg peak (SOBP) for proton therapy.Method and Materials: A simple algorithm has been developed to generate the weight factors in corresponding pristine Bragg peaks which composed a smooth SOBP in proton therapy. We used a modified analytical Bragg peak function based on Monte Carol simulation tool-kits of Geant4 as pristine Bragg peaks input in our algorithm. A simple METLAB(R) Quad Program was introduced to optimize the cost function in our algorithm. Results: We found out that the existed analytical function of Braggmore » peak can't directly use as pristine Bragg peak dose-depth profile input file in optimization of the weight factors since this model didn't take into account of the scattering factors introducing from the range shifts in modifying the proton beam energies. We have done Geant4 simulations for proton energy of 63.4 MeV with a 1.08 cm SOBP for variation of pristine Bragg peaks which composed this SOBP and modified the existed analytical Bragg peak functions for their peak heights, ranges of R{sub 0}, and Gaussian energies {sigma}{sub E}. We found out that 19 pristine Bragg peaks are enough to achieve a flatness of 1.5% of SOBP which is the best flatness in the publications. Conclusion: This work develops a simple algorithm to generate the weight factors which is used to design a range modulation wheel to generate a smooth SOBP in protonradiation therapy. We have found out that a medium number of pristine Bragg peaks are enough to generate a SOBP with flatness less than 2%. It is potential to generate data base to store in the treatment plan to produce a clinic acceptable SOBP by using our simple algorithm.« less

Daily Energy Expenditure and Its Relation to Health Care Costs in Patients Undergoing Ambulatory Electrocardiographic Monitoring.

PubMed

George, Jason; Abdulla, Rami Khoury; Yeow, Raymond; Aggarwal, Anshul; Boura, Judith; Wegner, James; Franklin, Barry A

2017-02-15

Our increasingly sedentary lifestyle is associated with a heightened risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease, and cardiovascular mortality. Using the recently developed heart rate index formula in 843 patients (mean ± SD age 62.3 ± 15.7 years) who underwent 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring, we estimated average and peak daily energy expenditure, expressed as metabolic equivalents (METs), and related these data to subsequent hospital encounters and health care costs. In this cohort, estimated daily average and peak METs were 1.7 ± 0.7 and 5.5 ± 2.1, respectively. Patients who achieved daily bouts of peak energy expenditure ≥5 METs had fewer hospital encounters (p = 0.006) and median health care costs that were nearly 50% lower (p <0.001) than their counterparts who attained <5 METs. In patients whose body mass index was ≥30 kg/m 2 , there were significant differences in health care costs depending on whether they achieved <5 or ≥5 METs estimated by ambulatory ECG monitoring (p = 0.005). Interestingly, patients who achieved ≥5 METs had lower and no significant difference in their health care costs, regardless of their body mass index (p = 0.46). Patients with previous percutaneous coronary intervention who achieved ≥5 METs had lower health care costs (p = 0.044) and fewer hospital encounters (p = 0.004) than those who achieved <5 METs. In conclusion, average and peak daily energy expenditures estimated from ambulatory ECG monitoring may provide useful information regarding health care utilization in patients with and without previous percutaneous coronary intervention, irrespective of body habitus. Our findings are the first to link lower intensities of peak daily energy expenditure, estimated from ambulatory ECG monitoring, with increased health care utilization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual vision and peak distribution in collective actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Peng

2017-06-01

People make decisions on whether they should participate as participants or not as free riders in collective actions with heterogeneous visions. Besides of the utility heterogeneity and cost heterogeneity, this work includes and investigates the effect of vision heterogeneity by constructing a decision model, i.e. the revised peak model of participants. In this model, potential participants make decisions under the joint influence of utility, cost, and vision heterogeneities. The outcomes of simulations indicate that vision heterogeneity reduces the values of peaks, and the relative variance of peaks is stable. Under normal distributions of vision heterogeneity and other factors, the peaks of participants are normally distributed as well. Therefore, it is necessary to predict distribution traits of peaks based on distribution traits of related factors such as vision heterogeneity and so on. We predict the distribution of peaks with parameters of both mean and standard deviation, which provides the confident intervals and robust predictions of peaks. Besides, we validate the peak model of via the Yuyuan Incident, a real case in China (2014), and the model works well in explaining the dynamics and predicting the peak of real case.

The stability of H/V spectral ratios from noise measurements in Armutlu Peninsula (Turkey)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Livaoğlu, Hamdullah, E-mail: hamdullah.livaoglu@kocaeli.edu.tr; Irmak, T. Serkan; Caka, Deniz

The horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (H/V) method has been successfully using in order to estimate the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover, its thickness and amplification factor since at least 3 decades. There are numerous studies have been carried out on the stability of the H/V spectral ratios. Almost all studies showed that fundamental frequency is stable even measurements are repeated at different times. From this point of view, the results will show us an approach whether the stations are suitable for accurate estimate of earthquake studies and engineering purposes or not. Also we want to see ifmore » any effects of the amplification factor changing on the seismograms for Armutlu Seismic Network (ARNET) even though seismic stations are established far away from cultural noise and located on hard rock sites. It has been selected one hour recorded data of all stations during the most stationary times. The amplification and resonant frequency variations of H/V ratio were calculated to investigate temporal stability in time. There is a total harmony in fundamental frequencies values and H/V spectral ratio values in time-lagged periods. Some stations shows secondary minor peaks in high frequency band due to a shallow formation effect or cultural noises around. In the east side of the area ILYS station shows amplitude peak in lower fundamental frequency band from expected. This could compose a high amplification in lower frequencies and so that yield less reliable results in local earthquakes studies. By the experimental results from ambient noise analysis, it could be worked up for relocation of one station.« less

Polar cap models of gamma-ray pulsars: Emision from single poles of nearly aligned rotators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daugherty, Joseph K.; Harding, Alice K.

1994-01-01

We compare a new Monte Carlo simulation of polar cap models for gamma-ray pulsars with observations of sources detected above 10 MeV by the Compton Observatory (CGRO). We find that for models in which the inclination of the magnetic axis is comparable to the angular radius of the polar cap, the radiation from a single cap may exhibit a pusle with either a single broad peak as in PSR 1706-44 and PSR 1055-52, or a doubly peaked profile comparable to those observed from the Crab, Vela and Geminga pulsars. In general, double pulses are seen by observers whose line of sight penetrates into the cap interior and are due to enhanced emission near the rim. For cascades induced by culvature radiation, increased rim emission occurs even when electrons are accelerated over the entire cap, since electrons from the interior escape along magnetic field lines with less curvature and hence emit less radiation. However, we obtain better fits to the duty cycles of observed profiles if we make the empirical assumption that acceleration occurs only near the rim. In either case, the model energy spectra are consistent with most of the observed sources. The beaming factors expected from nearly aligned rotators, based on standard estimates for the cap radius, imply that their luminosities need not be as large as in the case of orthogonal rotators. However, small beam angles are also a difficutly with this model because they imply low detection probablities. In either case the polar cap radius is a critical factor, and in this context we point out that plasma loading of the field lines should make the caps larger than the usual estimates based on pure dipole fields.

Exploring the impact of network tariffs on household electricity expenditures using load profiles and socio-economic characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarova, Valeriya; Engel, Dominik; Ferner, Cornelia; Kollmann, Andrea; Reichl, Johannes

2018-04-01

Growing self-generation and storage are expected to cause significant changes in residential electricity utilization patterns. Commonly applied volumetric network tariffs may induce imbalance between different groups of households and their respective contribution to recovering the operating costs of the grid. Understanding consumer behaviour and appliance usage together with socio-economic factors can help regulatory authorities to adapt network tariffs to new circumstances in a fair way. Here, we assess the effects of 11 network tariff scenarios on household budgets using real load profiles from 765 households. Thus we explore the possibly disruptive impact of applying peak-load-based tariffs on the budgets of households when they have been mainly charged for consumed volumes before. Our analysis estimates the change in household network expenditure for different combinations of energy, peak and fixed charges, and can help to design tariffs that recover the costs needed for the sustainable operation of the grid.

Tracing historical trends of Hg in the Mississippi River using Hg concentrations and Hg isotopic compositions in a lake sediment core, Lake Whittington, Mississippi, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, John E.; Van Metre, Peter C.; Pribil, Michael J.; Horowitz, Arthur J.

2015-01-01

Concentrations and isotopic compositions of mercury (Hg) in a sediment core collected from Lake Whittington, an oxbow lake on the Lower Mississippi River, were used to evaluate historical sources of Hg in the Mississippi River basin. Sediment Hg concentrations in the Lake Whittington core have a large 10-15 y peak centered on the 1960s, with a maximum enrichment factor relative to Hg in the core of 4.8 in 1966. The Hg concentration profile indicates a different Hg source history than seen in most historical reconstructions of Hg loading. The timing of the peak is consistent with large releases of Hg from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), primarily in the late 1950s and 1960s. Mercury was used in a lithiumisotope separation process by ORNL and an estimated 128Mg (megagrams) of Hgwas discharged to a local stream that flows into the Tennessee River and, eventually, the Mississippi River. Mass balance analyses of Hg concentrations and isotopic compositions in the Lake Whittington core fit a binary mixing model with a Hg-rich upstream source contributing about 70% of the Hg to Lake Whittington at the height of the Hg peak in 1966. This upstream Hg source is isotopically similar to Hg isotope compositions of stream sediment collected downstream near ORNL. It is estimated that about one-half of the Hg released from the ORNL potentially reached the LowerMississippi River basin in the 1960s, suggesting considerable downstream transport of Hg. It is also possible that upstream urban and industrial sources contributed some proportion of Hg to Lake Whittington in the 1960s and 1970s.

Measurement of growth hormone-releasing hormone and somatostatin in hypothalamic-portal plasma of unanesthetized sheep. Spontaneous secretion and response to insulin-induced hypoglycemia.

PubMed Central

Frohman, L A; Downs, T R; Clarke, I J; Thomas, G B

1990-01-01

To elucidate the role of growth hormone (GH)-releasing hormone (GRH) and somatostatin (SRIH) in the regulation of the growth hormone (GH) secretory pattern, we collected portal blood from five unanesthetized ovariectomized ewes for repeated measurements of GRH and SRIH simultaneous with those of peripheral GH. Hormones were measured at 10-min intervals for 5.5 h and their interrelationships analyzed. Mean portal GRH was 20.4 +/- 6.7 (SD) pg/ml and the estimated overall secretion rate was 13 pg/min. GRH secretion was pulsatile with peaks of 25-40 pg/ml and a mean pulse interval of 71 min. Mean portal SRIH was 72 +/- 33 pg/ml and the estimated overall secretion rate was 32 pg/min. SRIH secretion was also pulsatile with peaks of 65-160 pg/ml and a mean pulse interval of 54 min. The GH pulse interval was 62 min. A significant association was present between GRH and GH secretory peaks though not between GRH and SRIH or SRIH and GH. Insulin hypoglycemia resulted in a rapid and brief stimulation of SRIH secretion followed by a decline in GH levels. No effect was observed on GRH secretion until 90 min, when a slight increase occurred. The results suggest (a) the presence of an independent neural rhythmicity of GRH and SRIH secretion with a primary role of GRH in determining pulsatile GRH secretion, and (b) that the inhibitory effects of insulin hypoglycemia on GH in this species are attributable to a combination of enhanced SRIH secretion and possibly other factors, though without significant inhibition of GRH. PMID:1973173

Estimation of Pharyngeal Collapsibility During Sleep by Peak Inspiratory Airflow.

PubMed

Azarbarzin, Ali; Sands, Scott A; Taranto-Montemurro, Luigi; Oliveira Marques, Melania D; Genta, Pedro R; Edwards, Bradley A; Butler, James; White, David P; Wellman, Andrew

2017-01-01

Pharyngeal critical closing pressure (Pcrit) or collapsibility is a major determinant of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and may be used to predict the success/failure of non-continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapies. Since its assessment involves overnight manipulation of CPAP, we sought to validate the peak inspiratory flow during natural sleep (without CPAP) as a simple surrogate measurement of collapsibility. Fourteen patients with OSA attended overnight polysomnography with pneumotachograph airflow. The middle third of the night (non-rapid eye movement sleep [NREM]) was dedicated to assessing Pcrit in passive and active states via abrupt and gradual CPAP pressure drops, respectively. Pcrit is the extrapolated CPAP pressure at which flow is zero. Peak and mid-inspiratory flow off CPAP was obtained from all breaths during sleep (excluding arousal) and compared with Pcrit. Active Pcrit, measured during NREM sleep, was strongly correlated with both peak and mid-inspiratory flow during NREM sleep (r = -0.71, p < .005 and r = -0.64, p < .05, respectively), indicating that active pharyngeal collapsibility can be reliably estimated from simple airflow measurements during polysomnography. However, there was no significant relationship between passive Pcrit, measured during NREM sleep, and peak or mid-inspiratory flow obtained from NREM sleep. Flow measurements during REM sleep were not significantly associated with active or passive Pcrit. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of estimating active Pcrit using flow measurements in patients with OSA. This method may enable clinicians to estimate pharyngeal collapsibility without sophisticated equipment and potentially aid in the selection of patients for non- positive airway pressure therapies. © Sleep Research Society 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cost estimate of electricity produced by TPV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palfinger, Günther; Bitnar, Bernd; Durisch, Wilhelm; Mayor, Jean-Claude; Grützmacher, Detlev; Gobrecht, Jens

2003-05-01

A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed cost estimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timonen, Hilkka; Cubison, Mike; Aurela, Minna

The applicability, methods and limitations of constrained peak fitting on mass spectra of low mass resolving power ( m/Δ m 50~500) recorded with a time-of-flight aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ToF-ACSM) are explored. Calibration measurements as well as ambient data are used to exemplify the methods that should be applied to maximise data quality and assess confidence in peak-fitting results. Sensitivity analyses and basic peak fit metrics such as normalised ion separation are employed to demonstrate which peak-fitting analyses commonly performed in high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometry are appropriate to perform on spectra of this resolving power. Information on aerosol sulfate, nitrate,more » sodium chloride, methanesulfonic acid as well as semi-volatile metal species retrieved from these methods is evaluated. The constants in a commonly used formula for the estimation of the mass concentration of hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol may be refined based on peak-fitting results. Lastly, application of a recently published parameterisation for the estimation of carbon oxidation state to ToF-ACSM spectra is validated for a range of organic standards and its use demonstrated for ambient urban data.« less

A New Estimate of North American Mountain Snow Accumulation From Regional Climate Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Durand, Michael T.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Zhang, Yu; Guo, Junyi; Shum, C. K.

2018-02-01

Despite the importance of mountain snowpack to understanding the water and energy cycles in North America's montane regions, no reliable mountain snow climatology exists for the entire continent. We present a new estimate of mountain snow water equivalent (SWE) for North America from regional climate model simulations. Climatological peak SWE in North America mountains is 1,006 km3, 2.94 times larger than previous estimates from reanalyses. By combining this mountain SWE value with the best available global product in nonmountain areas, we estimate peak North America SWE of 1,684 km3, 55% greater than previous estimates. In our simulations, the date of maximum SWE varies widely by mountain range, from early March to mid-April. Though mountains comprise 24% of the continent's land area, we estimate that they contain 60% of North American SWE. This new estimate is a suitable benchmark for continental- and global-scale water and energy budget studies.

Peak-Seeking Control Using Gradient and Hessian Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, John J.; Speyer, Jason L.

2010-01-01

A peak-seeking control method is presented which utilizes a linear time-varying Kalman filter. Performance function coordinate and magnitude measurements are used by the Kalman filter to estimate the gradient and Hessian of the performance function. The gradient and Hessian are used to command the system toward a local extremum. The method is naturally applied to multiple-input multiple-output systems. Applications of this technique to a single-input single-output example and a two-input one-output example are presented.

Epidemiology of dengue fever in Hanoi from 2002 to 2010 and its meteorological determinants.

PubMed

Minh An, Dao Thi; Rocklöv, Joacim

2014-01-01

Dengue fever (DF) is a growing public health problem in Vietnam. The disease burden in Vietnam has been increasing for decades. In Hanoi, in contrast to many other regions, extrinsic drivers such as weather have not been proved to be predictive of disease frequency, which limits the usefulness of such factors in an early warning system. The purpose of this research was to review the epidemiology of DF transmission and investigate the role of weather factors contributing to occurrence of DF cases. Monthly data from Hanoi (2002-2010) were used to test the proposed model. Descriptive time-series analysis was conducted. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis assuming a negative binomial distribution was established through several models. The predictors used were lags of 1-3 months previous observations of mean rainfall, mean temperature, DF cases, and their interactions. Descriptive analysis showed that DF occurred annually and seasonally with an increasing time trend in Hanoi. The annual low occurred from December to March followed by a gradual increase from April to July with a peak in September, October. The amplitude of the annual peak varied between years. Statistically significant relationships were estimated at lag 1-3 with rainfall, autocorrelation, and their interaction while temperature was estimated as influential at lag 3 only. For these relationships, the final model determined a correlation of 92% between predicted number of dengue cases and the observed dengue disease frequencies. Although the model performance was good, the findings suggest that other forces related to urbanization, density of population, globalization with increasing transport of people and goods, herd immunity, government vector control capacity, and changes in serotypes are also likely influencing the transmission of DF. Additional research taking into account all of these factors besides climatic factors is needed to help developing and developed countries find the right intervention for controlling DF epidemics, and to set up early warning systems with high sensitivity and specificity. Immediate action to control DF outbreak in Hanoi should include an information, communication, and education program that focuses on training Hanoi residents to more efficiently eliminate stagnant puddles and water containers after each rainfall to limit the vector population growth.

The influence of climatic factors on the development of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and leptospirosis during the peak season in Korea: an ecologic study.

PubMed

Joshi, Yadav Prasad; Kim, Eun-Hye; Cheong, Hae-Kwan

2017-06-07

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and leptospirosis are seasonal rodent-borne infections in the Republic of Korea (Korea). The occurrences of HFRS and leptospirosis are influenced by climatic variability. However, few studies have examined the effects of local climatic variables on the development of these infections. The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of HFRS and leptospirosis in Korea. Daily records on human cases of HFRS and leptospirosis between January 2001 to December 2009 were analyzed. The associations of climatic factors with these cases in high incidence provinces were estimated using the time-series method and multivariate generalized linear Poisson models with a maximal lag of 12 weeks. From 2001 to 2009, a total of 2912 HFRS and 889 leptospirosis cases were reported, with overall incidences of 0.67 and 0.21 cases per 100,000, respectively, in the study areas. The increase in minimum temperature (1 °C) at a lag of 11 weeks was associated with 17.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.1, 20.6%] and 22.7% (95% CI: 16.5, 29.3%) increases in HFRS and leptospirosis cases, respectively. A 1-h increase in the daily sunshine was related to a 27.5% (95% CI: 18.2, 37.6%) increase in HFRS at a lag of 0 week. A 1% increase in daily minimum relative humidity and a 1 mm increase in daily rainfall were associated with 4.0% (95% CI:1.8, 6.1) and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2, 2.8%) increases in weekly leptospirosis cases at 11 and 6 weeks later, respectively. A 1 mJ/m 2 increase in daily solar radiation was associated with a 13.7% (95% CI: 4.9, 23.2%) increase in leptospirosis cases, maximized at a 2-week lag. During the peak season in Korea, climatic factors play a significant role in the development of HFRS and leptospirosis. The findings of this study may be applicable to the forecasting and prediction of disease outbreaks.

Demand Side Management: An approach to peak load smoothing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Prachi

A preliminary national-level analysis was conducted to determine whether Demand Side Management (DSM) programs introduced by electric utilities since 1992 have made any progress towards their stated goal of reducing peak load demand. Estimates implied that DSM has a very small effect on peak load reduction and there is substantial regional and end-user variability. A limited scholarly literature on DSM also provides evidence in support of a positive effect of demand response programs. Yet, none of these studies examine the question of how DSM affects peak load at the micro-level by influencing end-users' response to prices. After nearly three decades of experience with DSM, controversy remains over how effective these programs have been. This dissertation considers regional analyses that explore both demand-side solutions and supply-side interventions. On the demand side, models are estimated to provide in-depth evidence of end-user consumption patterns for each North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region, helping to identify sectors in regions that have made a substantial contribution to peak load reduction. The empirical evidence supports the initial hypothesis that there is substantial regional and end-user variability of reductions in peak demand. These results are quite robust in rapidly-urbanizing regions, where air conditioning and lighting load is substantially higher, and regions where the summer peak is more pronounced than the winter peak. It is also evident from the regional experiences that active government involvement, as shaped by state regulations in the last few years, has been successful in promoting DSM programs, and perhaps for the same reason we witness an uptick in peak load reductions in the years 2008 and 2009. On the supply side, we estimate the effectiveness of DSM programs by analyzing the growth of capacity margin with the introduction of DSM programs. The results indicate that DSM has been successful in offsetting the need for additional production capacity by the means of demand response measures, but the success is limited to only a few regions. The rate of progress in the future will depend on a wide range of improved technologies and a continuous government monitoring for successful adoption of demand response programs to manage growing energy demand.

Remote sensing of the ionospheric F layer by use of O I 6300-A and O I 1356-A observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Reed, E. I.; Meier, R. R.; Opal, C. B.; Hicks, G. T.

1975-01-01

The possibility of using airglow techniques for estimating the electron density and height of the F layer is studied on the basis of a simple relationship between the height of the F2 peak and the column emission rates of the O I 6300 A and O I 1356 A lines. The feasibility of this approach is confirmed by a numerical calculation of F2 peak heights and electron densities from simultaneous measurements of O I 6300 A and O I 1356 A obtained with earth-facing photometers carried by the Ogo 4 satellite. Good agreement is established with the F2 peak heights estimates from top-side and bottom-side ionospheric sounding.

Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles

PubMed Central

Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu; Wang, Rong; Wang, Bin; Shen, Guofeng; Li, Wei; Su, Shenshen; Huang, Ye; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin; Li, Bengang; Sun, Kang

2013-01-01

Emission from motor vehicles is the most important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas. Emission factors of individual PAHs for motor vehicles reported in the literature varied 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission inventory. In this study, key factors affecting emission factors of PAHs (EFPAH) for motor vehicles were evaluated quantitatively based on thousands of EFPAH measured in 16 countries for over 50 years. The result was used to develop a global emission inventory of PAHs from motor vehicles. It was found that country and vehicle model year are the most important factors affecting EFPAH, which can be quantified using a monovariate regression model with per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity) as a sole independent variable. On average, 29% of variation in log-transformed EFPAH could be explained by the model, which was equivalent to 90% reduction in overall uncertainty on arithmetic scale. The model was used to predict EFPAH and subsequently PAH emissions from motor vehicles for various countries in the world during a period from 1971 to 2030. It was estimated that the global emission reached its peak value of approximate 101 Gg in 1978 and decreased afterwards due to emission control in developed countries. The annual emission picked up again since 1990 owing to accelerated energy consumption in China and other developing countries. With more and more rigid control measures taken in the developing world, global emission of PAHs is currently passing its second peak. It was predicted that the emission would decrease from 77 Gg in 2010 to 42 Gg in 2030. PMID:24198716

Association with meteo-climatological factors and daily emergency visits for renal colic and urinary calculi in Cuneo, Italy. A retrospective observational study, 2007-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condemi, Vincenzo; Gestro, Massimo; Dozio, Elena; Tartaglino, Bruno; Corsi Romanelli, Massimiliano Marco; Solimene, Umberto; Meco, Roberto

2015-03-01

The incidence of nephrolithiasis is rising worldwide, especially in women and with increasing age. Incidence and prevalence of kidney stones are affected by genetic, nutritional, and environmental factors. The aim of this study is to investigate the link between various meteorological factors (independent variables) and the daily number of visits to the Emergency Department (ED of the S. Croce and Carle Hospital of Cuneo for renal colic (RC) and urinary stones (UC) as the dependent variable over the years 2007-2010. The Poisson generalized regression models (PGAMs) have been used in different progressive ways. The results of PGAMs (stage 1) adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors confirmed a significant correlation ( p < 0.03) with the thermal parameter. Evaluation of the dose-response effect [PGAMs combined with distributed lags nonlinear models (DLNMs)—stage 2], expressed in terms of relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (RRC), indicated a relative significant effect up to 15 lag days of lag (RR > 1), with a first peak after 5 days (lag ranges 0-1, 0-3, and 0-5) and a second weak peak observed along the 5-15 lag range days. The estimated RR for females was significant, mainly in the second and fourth age group considered (19-44 and >65 years): RR for total ED visits 1.27, confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.46 (lag 0-5 days); RR 1.42, CI 1.01-2.01 (lag 0-10 days); and RR 1.35, CI 1.09-1.68 (lag 0-15 days). The research also indicated a moderate involvement of the thermal factor in the onset of RC caused by UC, exclusively in the female sex. Further studies will be necessary to confirm these results.

Primary and secondary organic aerosols in Fresno, California during wintertime: Results from high resolution aerosol mass spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Xinlei; Setyan, Ari; Sun, Yele; Zhang, Qi

2012-10-01

Organic aerosols (OA) were studied in Fresno, California, in winter 2010 with an Aerodyne High Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS). OA dominated the submicron aerosol mass (average = 67%) with an average concentration of 7.9μg m-3 and a nominal formula of C1H1.59N0.014O0.27S0.00008, which corresponds to an average organic mass-to-carbon ratio of 1.50. Three primary OA (POA) factors and one oxygenated OA factor (OOA) representative of secondary OA (SOA) were identified via Positive Matrix Factorization of the high-resolution mass spectra. The three POA factors, which include a traffic-related hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), a cooking OA (COA), and a biomass burning OA (BBOA) released from residential heating, accounted for an average 57% of the OA mass and up to 80% between 6 - 9 P.M., during which enhanced emissions from evening rush hour traffic, dinner cooking, and residential wood burning were exacerbated by low mixed layer height. The mass-based size distributions of the OA factors were estimated based on multilinear analysis of the size-resolved mass spectra of organics. Both HOA and BBOA peaked at ˜140 nm in vacuum aerodynamic diameter (Dva) while OOA peaked at an accumulation mode of ˜460 nm. COA exhibited a unique size distribution with two size modes centering at ˜200 nm and 450 nm respectively. This study highlights the leading roles played by anthropogenic POA emissions, primarily from traffic, cooking and residential heating, in aerosol pollution in Fresno in wintertime.

Peak picking NMR spectral data using non-negative matrix factorization

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Simple peak-picking algorithms, such as those based on lineshape fitting, perform well when peaks are completely resolved in multidimensional NMR spectra, but often produce wrong intensities and frequencies for overlapping peak clusters. For example, NOESY-type spectra have considerable overlaps leading to significant peak-picking intensity errors, which can result in erroneous structural restraints. Precise frequencies are critical for unambiguous resonance assignments. Results To alleviate this problem, a more sophisticated peaks decomposition algorithm, based on non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), was developed. We produce peak shapes from Fourier-transformed NMR spectra. Apart from its main goal of deriving components from spectra and producing peak lists automatically, the NMF approach can also be applied if the positions of some peaks are known a priori, e.g. from consistently referenced spectral dimensions of other experiments. Conclusions Application of the NMF algorithm to a three-dimensional peak list of the 23 kDa bi-domain section of the RcsD protein (RcsD-ABL-HPt, residues 688-890) as well as to synthetic HSQC data shows that peaks can be picked accurately also in spectral regions with strong overlap. PMID:24511909

Obesity is associated with higher absolute tibiofemoral contact and muscle forces during gait with and without knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Harding, Graeme T; Dunbar, Michael J; Hubley-Kozey, Cheryl L; Stanish, William D; Astephen Wilson, Janie L

2016-01-01

Obesity is an important risk factor for knee osteoarthritis initiation and progression. However, it is unclear how obesity may directly affect the mechanical loading environment of the knee joint, initiating or progressing joint degeneration. The objective of this study was to investigate the interacting role of obesity and moderate knee osteoarthritis presence on tibiofemoral contact forces and muscle forces within the knee joint during walking gait. Three-dimensional gait analysis was performed on 80 asymptomatic participants and 115 individuals diagnosed with moderate knee osteoarthritis. Each group was divided into three body mass index categories: healthy weight (body mass index<25), overweight (25≤body mass index≤30), and obese (body mass index>30). Tibiofemoral anterior-posterior shear and compressive forces, as well as quadriceps, hamstrings and gastrocnemius muscle forces, were estimated based on a sagittal plane contact force model. Peak contact and muscle forces during gait were compared between groups, as well as the interaction between disease presence and body mass index category, using a two-factor analysis of variance. There were significant osteoarthritis effects in peak shear, gastrocnemius and quadriceps forces only when they were normalized to body mass, and there were significant BMI effects in peak shear, compression, gastrocnemius and hamstrings forces only in absolute, non-normalized forces. There was a significant interaction effect in peak quadriceps muscle forces, with higher forces in overweight and obese groups compared to asymptomatic healthy weight participants. Body mass index was associated with higher absolute tibiofemoral compression and shear forces as well as posterior muscle forces during gait, regardless of moderate osteoarthritis presence or absence. The differences found may contribute to accelerated joint damage with obesity, but with the osteoarthritic knees less able to accommodate the high loads. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emission of volatile organic compounds from domestic coal stove with the actual alternation of flaming and smoldering combustion processes.

PubMed

Liu, Chengtang; Zhang, Chenglong; Mu, Yujing; Liu, Junfeng; Zhang, Yuanyuan

2017-02-01

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions from the chimney of a prevailing domestic stove fuelled with raw bituminous coal were measured under flaming and smoldering combustion processes in a farmer's house. The results indicated that the concentrations of VOCs quickly increased after the coal loading and achieved their peak values in a few minutes. The peak concentrations of the VOCs under the smoldering combustion process were significantly higher than those under the flaming combustion process. Alkanes accounted for the largest proportion (43.05%) under the smoldering combustion, followed by aromatics (28.86%), alkenes (21.91%), carbonyls (5.81%) and acetylene (0.37%). The emission factors of the total VOCs under the smoldering combustion processes (5402.9 ± 2031.8 mg kg -1 ) were nearly one order of magnitude greater than those under the flaming combustion processes (559.2 ± 385.9 mg kg -1 ). Based on the VOCs emission factors obtained in this study and the regional domestic coal consumption, the total VOCs emissions from domestic coal stoves was roughly estimated to be 1.25 × 10 8  kg a -1 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Allometric modelling of peak oxygen uptake in male soccer players of 8-18 years of age.

PubMed

Valente-Dos-Santos, João; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J; Tavares, Óscar M; Brito, João; Seabra, André; Rebelo, António; Sherar, Lauren B; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Malina, Robert M

2015-03-01

Peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) is routinely scaled as mL O2 per kilogram body mass despite theoretical and statistical limitations of using ratios. To examine the contribution of maturity status and body size descriptors to age-associated inter-individual variability in VO2peak and to present static allometric models to normalize VO2peak in male youth soccer players. Total body and estimates of total and regional lean mass were measured with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry in a cross-sectional sample of Portuguese male soccer players. The sample was divided into three age groups for analysis: 8-12 years, 13-15 years and 16-18 years. VO2peak was estimated using an incremental maximal exercise test on a motorized treadmill. Static allometric models were used to normalize VO2peak. The independent variables with the best statistical fit explained 72% in the younger group (lean body mass: k = 1.07), 52% in mid-adolescent players (lean body mass: k = 0.93) and 31% in the older group (body mass: k = 0.51) of variance in VO2peak. The inclusion of the exponential term pubertal status marginally increased the explained variance in VO2peak (adjusted R(2 )= 36-75%) and provided statistical adjustments to the size descriptors coefficients. The allometric coefficients and exponents evidenced the varying inter-relationship among size descriptors and maturity status with aerobic fitness from early to late-adolescence. Lean body mass, lean lower limbs mass and body mass combined with pubertal status explain most of the inter-individual variability in VO2peak among youth soccer players.

Motion estimation in the frequency domain using fuzzy c-planes clustering.

PubMed

Erdem, C E; Karabulut, G Z; Yanmaz, E; Anarim, E

2001-01-01

A recent work explicitly models the discontinuous motion estimation problem in the frequency domain where the motion parameters are estimated using a harmonic retrieval approach. The vertical and horizontal components of the motion are independently estimated from the locations of the peaks of respective periodogram analyses and they are paired to obtain the motion vectors using a procedure proposed. In this paper, we present a more efficient method that replaces the motion component pairing task and hence eliminates the problems of the pairing method described. The method described in this paper uses the fuzzy c-planes (FCP) clustering approach to fit planes to three-dimensional (3-D) frequency domain data obtained from the peaks of the periodograms. Experimental results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Changes in gluteal muscle forces with alteration of footstrike pattern during running.

PubMed

Vannatta, Charles Nathan; Kernozek, Thomas W; Gheidi, Naghmeh

2017-10-01

Gait retraining is a common form of treatment for running related injuries. Proximal factors at the hip have been postulated as having a role in the development of running related injuries. How altering footstrike affects hip muscles forces and kinematics has not been described. Thus, we aimed to quantify differences in hip muscle forces and hip kinematics that may occur when healthy runners are instructed to alter their foot strike pattern from their habitual rear-foot strike to a forefoot strike. This may gain insight on the potential etiology and treatment methods of running related lower extremity injury. Twenty-five healthy female runners completed a minimum of 10 running trials in a controlled laboratory setting under rear-foot strike and instructed forefoot strike conditions. Kinetic and kinematic data were used in an inverse dynamic based static optimization to estimate individual muscle forces during running. Within subject differences were investigated using a repeated measures multi-variate analysis of variance. Peak gluteus medius and minimus and hamstring forces were reduced while peak gluteus maximus force was increased when running with an instructed forefoot strike pattern. Peak hip adduction, hip internal rotation, and heel-COM distance were also reduced. Therefore, instructing habitual rearfoot strike runners to run with a forefoot strike pattern resulted in changes in peak gluteal and hamstring muscle forces and hip kinematics. These changes may be beneficial to the development and treatment of running related lower extremity injury. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adapting Surface Ground Motion Relations to Underground conditions: A case study for the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babaie Mahani, A.; Eaton, D. W.

2013-12-01

Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are widely used in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) to estimate ground-motion amplitudes at Earth's surface as a function of magnitude and distance. Certain applications, such as hazard assessment for caprock integrity in the case of underground storage of CO2, waste disposal sites, and underground pipelines, require subsurface estimates of ground motion; at present, such estimates depend upon theoretical modeling and simulations. The objective of this study is to derive correction factors for GMPEs to enable estimation of amplitudes in the subsurface. We use a semi-analytic approach along with finite-difference simulations of ground-motion amplitudes for surface and underground motions. Spectral ratios of underground to surface motions are used to calculate the correction factors. Two predictive methods are used. The first is a semi-analytic approach based on a quarter-wavelength method that is widely used for earthquake site-response investigations; the second is a numerical approach based on elastic finite-difference simulations of wave propagation. Both methods are evaluated using recordings of regional earthquakes by broadband seismometers installed at the surface and at depths of 1400 m and 2100 m in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory, Canada. Overall, both methods provide a reasonable fit to the peaks and troughs observed in the ratios of real data. The finite-difference method, however, has the capability to simulate ground motion ratios more accurately than the semi-analytic approach.

Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand.

PubMed

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers' peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers' location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual 'map' of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments. PMID:26226511

Cortical volume and sex influence visual gamma.

PubMed

van Pelt, Stan; Shumskaya, Elena; Fries, Pascal

2018-06-05

Visually induced gamma-band activity (GBA) has been implicated in several central cognitive functions, in particular perceptual binding, the feedforward routing of attended stimulus information and memory encoding. Several studies have documented that the strength and frequency of GBA are influenced by both subject-intrinsic factors like age, and subject-extrinsic factors such as stimulus contrast. Here, we investigated the relative contributions of previously tested factors, additional factors, and their interactions, in a cohort of 158 subjects recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). In agreement with previous studies, we found that gamma strength and gamma peak frequency increase with stimulus contrast and stimulus velocity. Also in confirmation of previous findings, we report that gamma peak frequency declines with subject age. In addition, we found that gamma peak frequency is higher for subjects with thicker occipital cortex, but lower for larger occipital cortices. Also, gamma peak frequency is higher in female than male subjects. Extrinsic factors (stimulus contrast and velocity) and intrinsic factors (age, cortical thickness and sex) together explained 21% of the variance in gamma peak frequency and 20% of the variance in gamma strength. These results can contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms, by which gamma is generated, and the mechanisms, through which it affects the cognitive performance of a given individual subject. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age and measurement time-of-day effects on speech recognition in noise.

PubMed

Veneman, Carrie E; Gordon-Salant, Sandra; Matthews, Lois J; Dubno, Judy R

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of measurement time of day on speech recognition in noise and the extent to which time-of-day effects differ with age. Older adults tend to have more difficulty understanding speech in noise than younger adults, even when hearing is normal. Two possible contributors to this age difference in speech recognition may be measurement time of day and inhibition. Most younger adults are "evening-type," showing peak circadian arousal in the evening, whereas most older adults are "morning-type," with circadian arousal peaking in the morning. Tasks that require inhibition of irrelevant information have been shown to be affected by measurement time of day, with maximum performance attained at one's peak time of day. The authors hypothesized that a change in inhibition will be associated with measurement time of day and therefore affect speech recognition in noise, with better performance in the morning for older adults and in the evening for younger adults. Fifteen younger evening-type adults (20-28 years) and 15 older morning-type adults with normal hearing (66-78 years) listened to the Hearing in Noise Test (HINT) and the Quick Speech in Noise (QuickSIN) test in the morning and evening (peak and off-peak times). Time of day preference was assessed using the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Sentences and noise were presented binaurally through insert earphones. During morning and evening sessions, participants solved word-association problems within the visual-distraction task (VDT), which was used as an estimate of inhibition. After each session, participants rated perceived mental demand of the tasks using a revised version of the NASA Task Load Index. Younger adults performed significantly better on the speech-in-noise tasks and rated themselves as requiring significantly less mental demand when tested at their peak (evening) than off-peak (morning) time of day. In contrast, time-of-day effects were not observed for the older adults on the speech recognition or rating tasks. Although older adults required significantly more advantageous signal-to-noise ratios than younger adults for equivalent speech-recognition performance, a significantly larger younger versus older age difference in speech recognition was observed in the evening than in the morning. Older adults performed significantly poorer than younger adults on the VDT, but performance was not affected by measurement time of day. VDT performance for misleading distracter items was significantly correlated with HINT and QuickSIN test performance at the peak measurement time of day. Although all participants had normal hearing, speech recognition in noise was significantly poorer for older than younger adults, with larger age-related differences in the evening (an off-peak time for older adults) than in the morning. The significant effect of measurement time of day suggests that this factor may impact the clinical assessment of speech recognition in noise for all individuals. It appears that inhibition, as estimated by a visual distraction task for misleading visual items, is a cognitive mechanism that is related to speech-recognition performance in noise, at least at a listener's peak time of day.

A catastrophic flood caused by drainage of a caldera lake at Aniakchak Volcano, Alaska, and implications for volcanic hazards assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, C.F.; Walder, J.S.; McGimsey, R.G.; Neal, C.A.

1996-01-01

Aniakchak caldera, located on the Alaska Peninsula of southwest Alaska, formerly contained a large lake (estimated volume 3.7 ?? 109 m3) that rapidly drained as a result of failure of the caldera rim sometime after ca. 3400 yr B.P. The peak discharge of the resulting flood was estimated using three methods: (1) flow-competence equations, (2) step-backwater modeling, and (3) a dam-break model. The results of the dam-break model indicate that the peak discharge at the breach in the caldera rim was at least 7.7 ?? 104 m3 s-1, and the maximum possible discharge was ???1.1 ?? 106 m3 s-1. Flow-competence estimates of discharge, based on the largest boulders transported by the flood, indicate that the peak discharge values, which were a few kilometers downstream of the breach, ranged from 6.4 ?? 105 to 4.8 ?? 106 m3 s-1. Similar but less variable results were obtained by step-backwater modeling. Finally, discharge estimates based on regression equations relating peak discharge to the volume and depth of the impounded water, although limited by constraining assumptions, provide results within the range of values determined by the other methods. The discovery and documentation of a flood, caused by the failure of the caldera rim at Aniakchak caldera, underscore the significance and associated hydrologic hazards of potential large floods at other lake-filled calderas.

Additive prognostic value of interleukin-6 at peak phase of dobutamine stress echocardiography in patients with coronary artery disease. A 6-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Ikonomidis, Ignatios; Athanassopoulos, George; Stamatelopoulos, Kimon; Lekakis, John; Revela, Ioanna; Venetsanou, Kiriaki; Marinou, Margarita; Monaco, Claudia; Cokkinos, Dennis V; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

2008-08-01

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tissue factor (TF) are elevated after myocardial ischemia during dobutamine stress echo (DSE). We examined the incremental prognostic value of IL-6 or TF measured during DSE over echocardiographic and clinical factors in patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD). We studied 106 patients with angiographically documented CAD. IL-6 and TF were measured at rest, peak, and during recovery. A wall motion score index was calculated. Fifty-seven (54%) patients had ischemia at DSE. During follow-up (63.7 +/- 20 months), 36 patients (33%) had an adverse event (12 cardiac deaths, 24 acute coronary events). Patients with events had a higher peak IL-6 (P = .02) but similar rest and recovery IL-6 than those without. Patients with peak IL-6 > or =3.14 pg/mL (upper tertile) had a hazard ratio of 2.7 (95% CI 1.44-5.37) (P < .01 for an adverse event). The addition of peak wall motion score index in a multivariable model including risk factors, ejection fraction, revascularization, and multivessel disease increased the model's c statistic from 0.66 to 0.70 (P = .04). The addition of peak IL-6 further increased the model's c statistic to 0.75 (P = .04). Tissue factor was not related with cardiac events. Interleuikin-6 levels measured during the peak phase of DSE incrementally contribute to risk stratification in patients with chronic CAD.

Estimation of Confined Peak Strength of Crack-Damaged Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahrani, Navid; Kaiser, Peter K.

2017-02-01

It is known that the unconfined compressive strength of rock decreases with increasing density of geological features such as micro-cracks, fractures, and veins both at the laboratory specimen and rock block scales. This article deals with the confined peak strength of laboratory-scale rock specimens containing grain-scale strength dominating features such as micro-cracks. A grain-based distinct element model, whereby the rock is simulated with grains that are allowed to deform and break, is used to investigate the influence of the density of cracks on the rock strength under unconfined and confined conditions. A grain-based specimen calibrated to the unconfined and confined strengths of intact and heat-treated Wombeyan marble is used to simulate rock specimens with varying crack densities. It is demonstrated how such cracks affect the peak strength, stress-strain curve and failure mode with increasing confinement. The results of numerical simulations in terms of unconfined and confined peak strengths are used to develop semi-empirical relations that relate the difference in strength between the intact and crack-damaged rocks to the confining pressure. It is shown how these relations can be used to estimate the confined peak strength of a rock with micro-cracks when the unconfined and confined strengths of the intact rock and the unconfined strength of the crack-damaged rock are known. This approach for estimating the confined strength of crack-damaged rock specimens, called strength degradation approach, is then verified by application to published laboratory triaxial test data.

Exposure assessment in front of a multi-band base station antenna.

PubMed

Kos, Bor; Valič, Blaž; Kotnik, Tadej; Gajšek, Peter

2011-04-01

This study investigates occupational exposure to electromagnetic fields in front of a multi-band base station antenna for mobile communications at 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz. Finite-difference time-domain method was used to first validate the antenna model against measurement results published in the literature and then investigate the specific absorption rate (SAR) in two heterogeneous, anatomically correct human models (Virtual Family male and female) at distances from 10 to 1000 mm. Special attention was given to simultaneous exposure to fields of three different frequencies, their interaction and the additivity of SAR resulting from each frequency. The results show that the highest frequency--2100 MHz--results in the highest spatial-peak SAR averaged over 10 g of tissue, while the whole-body SAR is similar at all three frequencies. At distances > 200 mm from the antenna, the whole-body SAR is a more limiting factor for compliance to exposure guidelines, while at shorter distances the spatial-peak SAR may be more limiting. For the evaluation of combined exposure, a simple summation of spatial-peak SAR maxima at each frequency gives a good estimation for combined exposure, which was also found to depend on the distribution of transmitting power between the different frequency bands. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Effective Ion Mobility Peak Width as a New Isomeric Descriptor for the Untargeted Analysis of Complex Mixtures Using Ion Mobility-Mass Spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farenc, Mathilde; Paupy, Benoit; Marceau, Sabrina; Riches, Eleanor; Afonso, Carlos; Giusti, Pierre

2017-07-01

Ion mobility coupled with mass spectrometry was proven to be an efficient way to characterize complex mixtures such as petroleum samples. However, the identification of isomeric species is difficult owing to the molecular complexity of petroleum and no availability of standard molecules. This paper proposes a new simple indicator to estimate the isomeric content of highly complex mixtures. This indicator is based on the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the extracted ion mobility peak measured in millisecond or square angstrom that is corrected for instrumental factors such as ion diffusion. This value can be easily obtained without precisely identifying the number of isomeric species under the ion mobility peaks. Considering the Boduszynski model, the ion mobility profile for a particular elemental composition is expected to be a continuum of various isomeric species. The drift time-dependent fragmentation profile was studied and confirmed this hypothesis, a continuous evolution of the fragmentation profile showing that the larger alkyl chain species were detected at higher drift time values. This new indicator was proven to be a fast and efficient method to compare vacuum gas oils for which no difference was found using other analytical techniques.

Paleoflood investigations to improve peak-streamflow regional-regression equations for natural streamflow in eastern Colorado, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Harden, Tessa M.; Godaire, Jeanne E.; Klinger, Ralph E.; Mommandi, Amanullah

2016-09-09

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, developed regional-regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, 0.2-percent annual exceedance-probability discharge (AEPD) for natural streamflow in eastern Colorado. A total of 188 streamgages, consisting of 6,536 years of record and a mean of approximately 35 years of record per streamgage, were used to develop the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations. The estimated AEPDs for each streamgage were computed using the USGS software program PeakFQ. The AEPDs were determined using systematic data through water year 2013. Based on previous studies conducted in Colorado and neighboring States and on the availability of data, 72 characteristics (57 basin and 15 climatic characteristics) were evaluated as candidate explanatory variables in the regression analysis. Paleoflood and non-exceedance bound ages were established based on reconnaissance-level methods. Multiple lines of evidence were used at each streamgage to arrive at a conclusion (age estimate) to add a higher degree of certainty to reconnaissance-level estimates. Paleoflood or nonexceedance bound evidence was documented at 41 streamgages, and 3 streamgages had previously collected paleoflood data.To determine the peak discharge of a paleoflood or non-exceedanc bound, two different hydraulic models were used.The mean standard error of prediction (SEP) for all 8 AEPDs was reduced approximately 25 percent compared to the previous flood-frequency study. For paleoflood data to be effective in reducing the SEP in eastern Colorado, a larger ratio than 44 of 188 (23 percent) streamgages would need paleoflood data and that paleoflood data would need to increase the record length by more than 25 years for the 1-percent AEPD. The greatest reduction in SEP for the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations was observed when additional new basin characteristics were included in the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations and when eastern Colorado was divided into two separate hydrologic regions. To make further reductions in the uncertainties of the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations in the Foothills and Plains hydrologic regions, additional streamgages or crest-stage gages are needed to collect peak-streamflow data on natural streams in eastern Colorado.Generalized-Least Squares regression was used to compute the final peak-streamflow regional-regression equations for peak-streamflow. Dividing eastern Colorado into two new individual regions at –104° longitude resulted in peak-streamflow regional-regression equations with the smallest SEP. The new hydrologic region located between –104° longitude and the Kansas-Nebraska State line will be designated the Plains hydrologic region and the hydrologic region comprising the rest of eastern Colorado located west of the –104° longitude and east of the Rocky Mountains and below 7,500 feet in the South Platte River Basin and below 9,000 feet in the Arkansas River Basin will be designated the Foothills hydrologic region.

Method for obtaining structure and interactions from oriented lipid bilayers

PubMed Central

Lyatskaya, Yulia; Liu, Yufeng; Tristram-Nagle, Stephanie; Katsaras, John; Nagle, John F.

2009-01-01

Precise calculations are made of the scattering intensity I(q) from an oriented stack of lipid bilayers using a realistic model of fluctuations. The quantities of interest include the bilayer bending modulus Kc , the interbilayer interaction modulus B, and bilayer structure through the form factor F(qz). It is shown how Kc and B may be obtained from data at large qz where fluctuations dominate. Good estimates of F(qz) can be made over wide ranges of qz by using I(q) in q regions away from the peaks and for qr≠0 where details of the scattering domains play little role. Rough estimates of domain sizes can also be made from smaller qz data. Results are presented for data taken on fully hydrated, oriented DOPC bilayers in the Lα phase. These results illustrate the advantages of oriented samples compared to powder samples. PMID:11304287

Daniell method for power spectral density estimation in atomic force microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Labuda, Aleksander

An alternative method for power spectral density (PSD) estimation—the Daniell method—is revisited and compared to the most prevalent method used in the field of atomic force microscopy for quantifying cantilever thermal motion—the Bartlett method. Both methods are shown to underestimate the Q factor of a simple harmonic oscillator (SHO) by a predictable, and therefore correctable, amount in the absence of spurious deterministic noise sources. However, the Bartlett method is much more prone to spectral leakage which can obscure the thermal spectrum in the presence of deterministic noise. By the significant reduction in spectral leakage, the Daniell method leads to amore » more accurate representation of the true PSD and enables clear identification and rejection of deterministic noise peaks. This benefit is especially valuable for the development of automated PSD fitting algorithms for robust and accurate estimation of SHO parameters from a thermal spectrum.« less

Finite Element Modelling of the Indo-Gangetic Basin to Study Site Amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivasubramonian, J.; Jaya, D.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.; Mai, P. M.

2017-12-01

We have developed a finite-element model of the 3D velocity structure of the Indo-Gangetic basin (IG basin) to quantify site amplifications due to seismic waves emanated from regional earthquakes. Estimating seismic wave amplifications is difficult in case of limited instrumentation, thus motivating us to propose a new simulation-based approach. The input required for the finite-element model include the spatial coordinates and the material properties (density, P-wave and S-wave velocities, Q factor) of the basin. Recent studies in the basin demarcate sediment layers of varying thickness, reaching down to a depth of 6 km and S-wave velocities ranging from 0.4-2.4 km/s (Srinivas et al., 2013). In the present study, our regional model has dimensions 900 x 900 x 80 km in x, y and z directions, discretized into 320 x 320 x 53 hexahedral elements. The top 6 km of the IG basin is divided into 8 different sediment layers with varying material properties. We use kinematic rupture models for the earthquake sources to simulate past as well as hypothetical future events. Two past earthquakes (Mw4.9, Delhi; Mw5.2, Chamoli) and two hypothetical earthquakes (Mw7.1; Mw8.5) are considered in our study. The rupture plane dimensions (L and W) and the slip distribution are estimated using the method of Mai and Beroza (2002). Based on focal-mechanism solutions and the depths of seismicity, we define the strike (580, 3090), the dip (650, 210), the rake (160, 770), and the depth of top edge of fault (5 km, 19 km) for the two large hypothetical earthquakes. Based on these parameters, the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solution of the source is obtained. Ground motions are then simulated by solving the three-dimensional wave equation using the spectral element method (Komatitsch and Tromp, 1999). The key observations from our results are: 1) basin amplification factors for Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) are twice as high as Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) 2) PGV amplifications are as high as a factor of 6 for earthquakes occurring inside the basin, and a factor of 4 for Himalayan earthquakes (to the north of the study region) 3) The simulated shake maps of PGV and PGD show directivity. Based on the above observations, we conclude that it is important to include our model into low-frequency ground-motion estimation for seismic hazard analysis.

Regional regression of flood characteristics employing historical information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Stedinger, J.R.

1987-01-01

Streamflow gauging networks provide hydrologic information for use in estimating the parameters of regional regression models. The regional regression models can be used to estimate flood statistics, such as the 100 yr peak, at ungauged sites as functions of drainage basin characteristics. A recent innovation in regional regression is the use of a generalized least squares (GLS) estimator that accounts for unequal station record lengths and sample cross correlation among the flows. However, this technique does not account for historical flood information. A method is proposed here to adjust this generalized least squares estimator to account for possible information about historical floods available at some stations in a region. The historical information is assumed to be in the form of observations of all peaks above a threshold during a long period outside the systematic record period. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment was performed to compare the GLS estimator adjusted for historical floods with the unadjusted GLS estimator and the ordinary least squares estimator. Results indicate that using the GLS estimator adjusted for historical information significantly improves the regression model. ?? 1987.

Visual stimulus eccentricity affects human gamma peak frequency.

PubMed

van Pelt, Stan; Fries, Pascal

2013-09-01

The peak frequency of neuronal gamma-band synchronization has received much attention in recent years. Gamma peak frequency shifts to higher frequency values for higher contrast, faster moving, and attended stimuli. In monkey V1, gamma peak frequency for a drifting grating is higher for a parafoveal as compared to an eccentric stimulus (Lima et al., 2010). This effect might be due to the cortical magnification factor: the higher cortical magnification for parafoveal stimuli increases the velocity with which the cortical representations of the moving grating stripes move across the cortical surface. Since faster moving stimuli lead to higher gamma frequency, a faster moving cortical representation might do the same. This explanation predicts that the eccentricity effect on gamma peak frequency is absent for stationary stimuli. To test this, we investigated the effect of eccentricity on gamma peak frequency by recording magnetoencephalography in human subjects while they viewed moving or stationary gratings. We found that both the moving and the stationary stimuli induced lower peak frequencies for larger eccentricities, arguing against an explanation based on the cortical magnification factor. We further investigated whether this eccentricity effect was explained by differences in the size or the spatial frequency of the expected cortical activation. Neither of those explained the eccentricity effect. We propose that the different stimulus and top-down factors leading to higher gamma peak frequency all result in higher stimulus salience, that salience is translated into gamma peak frequency, and that gamma peak frequency might subserve the preferential processing of neuronal activity induced by salient stimuli. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

REVERSING CYCLIC ELASTO-PLASTIC DEMANDS ON STRUCTURES DURING STRONG MOTION EARTHQUAKE EXCITATION.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez, V.; Brady, A.G.; Safak, E.

1986-01-01

Using the horizontal components from El Centro 1940, Taft 1952, and 4 accelerograms from the San Fernando earthquake of 2/9/71, the time history of the elasto-plastic displacement response was calculated for oscillators having periods within the range of 1 to 6 s and ductility factors within the range of 3 to 6. The Nth largest peak of the elasto-plastic response (N equals 2,4,8,16), when expressed as a percentage of maximum response (that is, N equals 1), is fairly independent of period within our period range. When considering only plastic peaks occurring, sometimes in a one-directional group of peaks, in the reverse direction from the preceding plastic peak, the amplitude of the Nth reversing plastic peak is similar to the Nth elastic peak, regardless of the ductility factor.

Determining the torus covering factors for a sample of type 1 AGN in the local Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezhikode, Savithri H.; Gandhi, Poshak; Done, Chris; Ward, Martin; Dewangan, Gulab C.; Misra, Ranjeev; Philip, Ninan Sajeeth

2017-12-01

In the unified scheme of active galactic nuclei, a dusty torus absorbs and then reprocesses a fraction of the intrinsic luminosity which is emitted at longer wavelengths. Thus, subject to radiative transfer corrections, the fraction of the sky covered by the torus as seen from the central source (known as the covering factor fc) can be estimated from the ratio of the infrared to the bolometric luminosities of the source as fc = Ltorus/LBol. However, the uncertainty in determining LBol has made the estimation of covering factors by this technique difficult, especially for AGN in the local Universe where the peak of the observed spectral energy distributions lies in the UV (ultraviolet). Here, we determine the covering factors of an X-ray/optically selected sample of 51 type 1 AGN. The bolometric luminosities of these sources are derived using a self-consistent, energy-conserving model that estimates the contribution in the unobservable far-UV region, using multifrequency data obtained from SDSS, XMM-Newton, WISE, 2MASS and UKIDSS. We derive a mean value of fc ∼ 0.30 with a dispersion of 0.17. Sample correlations, combined with simulations, show that fc is more strongly anticorrelated with λEdd than with LBol. This points to large-scale torus geometry changes associated with the Eddington-dependent accretion flow, rather than a receding torus, with its inner sublimation radius determined solely by heating from the central source. Furthermore, we do not see any significant change in the distribution of fc for sub-samples of radio-loud sources or Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLS1s), though these sub-samples are small.

Predictors of Peak Troponin Level in Acute Coronary Syndromes: Prior Aspirin Use and SYNTAX Score

PubMed Central

Bhatt, Hemal A.; Sanghani, Dharmesh R.; Lee, David; Julliard, Kell N.; Fernaine, George A.

2015-01-01

The peak troponin level has been associated with cardiovascular (CV) mortality and adverse CV events. The association of peak troponin with CV risk factors and severity and complexity of coronary artery disease remains unknown. We assessed the predictors of peak troponin in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This study aims to determine the predictors of peak troponin in ACS. Cardiac catheterization (CC) reports and electronic medical records from 2010 to 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 219 patients were eligible for the study. All major CV risk factors, comorbidities, laboratory data, CC indications, and coronary lesion characteristics were included. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were done. On multivariate linear regression analysis, ST-elevation myocardial infarction (p = 0.001, β = 65.16) and increasing synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and cardiac surgery (SYNTAX) score (p = 0.002, β = 1.15) were associated with higher peak troponin. The Pearson correlation between SYNTAX score and peak troponin was r = 0.257, p = 0.001. History of daily aspirin use was associated with lower peak troponin (p = 0.002, β = −24.32). Prior statin use (p = 0.321, β = −8.98) and the presence of CV risk factors were not associated with peak troponin. Coronary artery disease severity and complexity, urgency of CC, and prior aspirin use are associated with peak troponin levels in ACS. Our findings may help predict patient population with ACS who would be at a greater risk for short- and long-term CV morbidity and mortality due to elevated peak troponin. PMID:26900312

Ultrasonic tracking of shear waves using a particle filter

PubMed Central

Ingle, Atul N.; Ma, Chi; Varghese, Tomy

2015-01-01

Purpose: This paper discusses an application of particle filtering for estimating shear wave velocity in tissue using ultrasound elastography data. Shear wave velocity estimates are of significant clinical value as they help differentiate stiffer areas from softer areas which is an indicator of potential pathology. Methods: Radio-frequency ultrasound echo signals are used for tracking axial displacements and obtaining the time-to-peak displacement at different lateral locations. These time-to-peak data are usually very noisy and cannot be used directly for computing velocity. In this paper, the denoising problem is tackled using a hidden Markov model with the hidden states being the unknown (noiseless) time-to-peak values. A particle filter is then used for smoothing out the time-to-peak curve to obtain a fit that is optimal in a minimum mean squared error sense. Results: Simulation results from synthetic data and finite element modeling suggest that the particle filter provides lower mean squared reconstruction error with smaller variance as compared to standard filtering methods, while preserving sharp boundary detail. Results from phantom experiments show that the shear wave velocity estimates in the stiff regions of the phantoms were within 20% of those obtained from a commercial ultrasound scanner and agree with estimates obtained using a standard method using least-squares fit. Estimates of area obtained from the particle filtered shear wave velocity maps were within 10% of those obtained from B-mode ultrasound images. Conclusions: The particle filtering approach can be used for producing visually appealing SWV reconstructions by effectively delineating various areas of the phantom with good image quality properties comparable to existing techniques. PMID:26520761

More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

2018-05-01

Flood risks across the Pearl River basin, China, were evaluated using a peak flood flow dataset covering a period of 1951-2014 from 78 stations and historical flood records of the past 1000 years. The generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the kernel estimation method were used to evaluate frequencies and risks of hazardous flood events. Results indicated that (1) no abrupt changes or significant trends could be detected in peak flood flow series at most of the stations, and only 16 out of 78 stations exhibited significant peak flood flow changes with change points around 1990. Peak flood flow in the West River basin increased and significant increasing trends were identified during 1981-2010; decreasing peak flood flow was found in coastal regions and significant trends were observed during 1951-2014 and 1966-2014. (2) The largest three flood events were found to cluster in both space and time. Generally, basin-scale flood hazards can be expected in the West and North River basins. (3) The occurrence rate of floods increased in the middle Pearl River basin but decreased in the lower Pearl River basin. However, hazardous flood events were observed in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, and this is particularly true for the past 100 years. However, precipitation extremes were subject to moderate variations and human activities, such as building of levees, channelization of river systems, and rapid urbanization; these were the factors behind the amplification of floods in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, posing serious challenges for developing measures of mitigation of flood hazards in the lower Pearl River basin, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.

Surface electric fields for North America during historical geomagnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wei, Lisa H.; Homeier, Nichole; Gannon, Jennifer L.

2013-01-01

To better understand the impact of geomagnetic disturbances on the electric grid, we recreate surface electric fields from two historical geomagnetic storms—the 1989 “Quebec” storm and the 2003 “Halloween” storms. Using the Spherical Elementary Current Systems method, we interpolate sparsely distributed magnetometer data across North America. We find good agreement between the measured and interpolated data, with larger RMS deviations at higher latitudes corresponding to larger magnetic field variations. The interpolated magnetic field data are combined with surface impedances for 25 unique physiographic regions from the United States Geological Survey and literature to estimate the horizontal, orthogonal surface electric fields in 1 min time steps. The induced horizontal electric field strongly depends on the local surface impedance, resulting in surprisingly strong electric field amplitudes along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast. The relative peak electric field amplitude of each physiographic region, normalized to the value in the Interior Plains region, varies by a factor of 2 for different input magnetic field time series. The order of peak electric field amplitudes (largest to smallest), however, does not depend much on the input. These results suggest that regions at lower magnetic latitudes with high ground resistivities are also at risk from the effect of geomagnetically induced currents. The historical electric field time series are useful for estimating the flow of the induced currents through long transmission lines to study power flow and grid stability during geomagnetic disturbances.

Recombinant human granulocyte colony-stimulating factor after kidney transplantation: a retrospective analysis to evaluate the benefit or risk of immunostimulation.

PubMed

Schmaldienst, S; Bekesi, G; Deicher, R; Franz, M; Hörl, W H; Pohanka, E

2000-02-27

Leukopenia due to immunosuppressive drugs represents a well-known complication in graft recipients, which might put patients at an increased risk for infections. In this study, recombinant human granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (rhG-CSF), a hematopoietic growth factor that selectively stimulates neutrophil colony formation and neutrophil cell differentiation, was tested for safety and efficacy. We evaluated 30 episodes of leukopenia (<2000/mm3) in 19 kidney graft recipients treated with rhG-CSF. This cohort was compared with an age- and sex-matched historical control group without therapy. Peripheral and differential blood cell counts were analyzed, and the duration of leukopenia was estimated. Furthermore, the occurrence of infections associated with leukopenia was investigated. All patients responded to rhG-CSF therapy. Peripheral leukocyte counts increased from 1756+/-582 to a peak of 8723+/-3038/mm3 (P<0.0001). On the average, the peak was reached after 2.7 days (range 1 to 8). Furthermore, the effect was fairly persistent, because in 22 of 30 episodes leukocyte counts were within the normal range after 7 days. The elevation of total leukocytes was mainly due to a specific increase in neutrophil granulocytes from 1143+/-514 to 6895+/-1950/mm3 on the peak day (P<0.0001). Patients in the G-CSF group were leukopenic for a mean of 1.29+/-0.59 days, whereas in the control group leukopenia persisted for at least 7 days. Consequently, the rate of infections was significantly higher (P<0.045) in nontreated patients. rhG-CSF was safe and effective in leukopenic kidney graft recipients. Leukopenic episodes in treated patients were significantly shorter, and infections occurred at a significantly lower rate. No evidence was found that rhG-CSF therapy might trigger rejection episodes, and no side effects were observed.

Earthquake site response in Santa Cruz, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carver, D.; Hartzell, S.H.

1996-01-01

Aftershocks of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake are used to estimate site response in a 12-km2 area centered on downtown Santa Cruz. A total of 258 S-wave records from 36 aftershocks recorded at 33 sites are used in a linear inversion for site-response spectra. The inversion scheme takes advantage of the redundancy of the large data set for which several aftershocks are recorded at each site. The scheme decomposes the observed spectra into source, path, and site terms. The path term is specified before the inversion. The undetermined degree of freedom in the decomposition into source and site spectra is removed by specifying the site-response factor to be approximately 1.0 at two sites on crystalline bedrock. The S-wave site responses correlate well with the surficial geology and observed damage pattern of the mainshock. The site-response spectra of the floodplain sites, which include the heavily damaged downtown area, exhibit significant peaks. The largest peaks are between 1 and 4 Hz. Five floodplain sites have amplification factors of 10 or greater. Most of the floodplain site-response spectra also have a smaller secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. Residential areas built on marine terraces above the flood-plain experienced much less severe damage. Site-response spectra for these areas also have their largest peaks between 1 and 4 Hz, but the amplification is generally below 6. Several of these sites also have a secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. The response peaks seen at nearly all sites between 1 and 4 Hz are probably caused by the natural resonance of the sedimentary rock column. The higher amplifications at floodplain sites may be caused by surface waves generated at the basin margins. The secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz at many sites may be a harmonic of the 1- to 4-Hz peaks. We used waveforms from a seven-station approximately linear array located on the floodplain to calculate the apparent velocity and azimuth of propagation of coherent arrivals within moving windows of the S-wave codas. The initial windows give results that are consistent with direct S-wave arrivals. The apparent velocities are high (greater than 4.0 km/sec), and azimuths are from the source. Waves arriving later than 2 sec after the direct S waves have apparent velocities of less than 1 km/ sec, indicating that they are surface waves, and arrive from divergent azimuths. This analysis indicates that after the direct S-wave arrival, long-duration shaking comes from surface waves that are generated at the basin margin and reverberate in the floodplain sediments.

Noninvasive estimation of cardiac systolic function using continuous-wave Doppler echocardiography in dogs with experimental mitral regurgitation.

PubMed

Asano, K; Masui, Y; Masuda, K; Fujinaga, T

2002-01-01

To evaluate the feasibility of noninvasive estimation of cardiac systolic function using transthoracic continuous-wave Doppler echocardiography in dogs with mitral regurgitation. Seven mongrel dogs with experimental mitral regurgitation were used. Left ventriculography and measurement of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure were performed under inhalational anaesthesia. A micromanometer-tipped catheter was placed into the left ventricle and transthoracic echocardiography was carried out. The peak rate of left ventricular pressure rise (peak dP/dt) was derived simultaneously by continuous-wave Doppler and manometer measurements. The Doppler-derived dP/dt was compared with the catheter-measured peak dP/dt in the dogs. Classification of the severity of mitral regurgitation in the dogs was as follows: 1+, 2 dogs; 2+, 1 dog; 3+, 2 dogs; 4+, 1 dog; and not examined, 1 dog. We were able to derive dP/dt from the transthoracic continuous-wave Doppler echocardiography in all dogs. Doppler-derived dP/dt had a significant correlation with the catheter-measured peak dP/dt (r = 0.90, P < 0.0001). It was demonstrated that transthoracic continuous-wave Doppler echocardiography is a feasible method of noninvasive estimation of cardiac systolic function in dogs with experimental mitral regurgitation and may have clinical usefulness in canine patients with spontaneous mitral regurgitation.

[Identification of irradiated abalone by ESR spectroscopy].

PubMed

Song, Yeping; Wang, Chuanxian; Yang, Zhenyu; Zhong, Weike; Geng, Jinpei; Lu, Di; Ding, Zhuoping

2012-05-01

To establish an analytical method for the detection and identification of irradiated abalone by electron spin resonance spectroscopy. Electron spin resonance (ESR) was used to study the spectral characteristics of abalone and the characteristic peak for quantitation. There were obvious different ESR spectra between unirradiated and irradiated abalone. The g factor for unirradiated abalone was 2.0055-2.0060, the g1 and g2 factor for irradiated abalone were (2.0027 +/- 0.0001) and (1.9994 +/- 0.0001), respectively. The ESR signal intensity of characteristic peak was positively correlated with absorbed dose in the range of 0.5 - 10 kGy, left peak was the characteristic peak for quantitation and the detection limit was < or = 0.5 kGy. It was difficult to quantitate when the absorbed dose was over 10 kGy. ESR characteristic peak and g factor were able to qualitatively determine the irradiation of abalone. ESR spectroscopy is an effective method to determine whether the abalone being irradiated or not.

Radiation damage and sensitization effects on thermoluminescence of LiF:Mg,Ti (TLD-700)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farag, M. A.; Sadek, A. M.; Shousha, Hany. A.; El-Hagg, A. A.; Atta, M. R.; Kitis, G.

2017-09-01

The radiation damage effects and enhancement the thermoluminescence (TL) efficiency of LiF:Mg,Ti (TLD-700)dosimeters via sensitization method were discussed. Attempts to eliminate the effects of damage and sensitization were made using different types of annealing processes. The results showed that after irradiating the dosimeters with dose > 250 Gy of 60Co gamma source, damage effects were observed. The sensitivity of the total area under the curve was decreased by a factor of ∼0.5 after irradiation at a pre-test dose of 2 kGy. However, the effects of radiation damage on each glow-peak are different. The glow-peak 2 was the only peak that was not affected by the high-dose irradiation. It has been shown that the degree of the radiation damage effect is related to the maximum dose-response function, f(D)max of the glow-peak. In general, significant radiation damage effects were observed for the glow-peaks of high f(D)max . Post-irradiation anneal at 280 °C for 30 min causes dramatic effects on the shape of the glow-curve and as well as on the sensitivity of the dosimeters. An increasing by a factor of ∼35 in the sensitivity of the total area under the curve was observed at a pre-test dose of 2 kGy. Improving the sensitivity of peak 7 by a factor of∼22 was the dominant factor in increasing the sensitivity of the dosimeters. On the other hand, an increasing by factors of ∼2.5 and ∼4 was found for peaks 2 and 5 respectively. On the other hand, a decreasing by a factor ∼0.5 was observed for peaks 3 and 4. At pre-test dose levels >250 Gy, a very strange and high intensity tail was observed in the high-temperature region of the glow-curves. The readout anneal was not enough to remove this tail. While, the furnace anneal could eliminate the sensitization effects but not the radiation damage effects on the sensitivity of the dosimeters.

A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

2017-12-01

Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA-Europe Environment Agency, the Italian Civil Protection and ISPRA (the Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research). Only two levee failures events occurred in the sub-basin of Era River have been detected and analysed. The estimated return period with the univariate model of flood peak is greater than 2 and 5 years while the BTr is greater of 25 and 30 years respectively.

Estimation of settling velocity of sediment particles in estuarine and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasiha, Hussain J.; Shanmugam, Palanisamy

2018-04-01

A model for estimating the settling velocity of sediment particles (spherical and non-spherical) in estuarine and coastal waters is developed and validated using experimental data. The model combines the physical, optical and hydrodynamic properties of the particles and medium to estimate the sediment settling velocity. The well-known Stokes law is broadened to account for the influencing factors of settling velocity such as particle size, shape and density. To derive the model parameters, laboratory experiments were conducted using natural flaky seashells, spherical beach sands and ball-milled seashell powders. Spectral light backscattering measurements of settling particles in a water tank were made showing a distinct optical feature with a peak shifting from 470-490 nm to 500-520 nm for particle populations from spherical to flaky grains. This significant optical feature was used as a proxy to make a shape determination in the present model. Other parameters experimentally determined included specific gravity (ΔSG) , Corey shape factor (CSF) , median grain diameter (D50) , drag coefficient (Cd) and Reynolds number (Re) . The CSF values considered ranged from 0.2 for flaky to 1.0 for perfectly spherical grains and Reynolds numbers from 2.0 to 105 for the laminar to turbulent flow regimes. The specific gravity of submerged particles was optically derived and used along with these parameters to estimate the sediment settling velocity. Comparison with the experiment data showed that the present model estimated settling velocities of spherical and non-spherical particles that were closely consistent with the measured values. Findings revealed that for a given D50, the flaky particles caused a greater decrease in settling velocity than the spherical particles which suggests that the particle shape factor has a profound role in influencing the sediment settling velocity and drag coefficients, especially in transitional and turbulent flow regimes. The present model can be easily adopted for various scientific and operational applications since the required parameters are readily measurable with the commercially available instrumentations.

Estimation of recharge rates to the sand and gravel aquifer using environmental tritium, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knott, Jayne Fifield; Olimpio, Julio C.

1986-01-01

Estimation of the average annual rate of ground-water recharge to sand and gravel aquifers using elevated tritium concentrations in ground water is an alternative to traditional steady-state and water-balance recharge-rate methods. The concept of the tritium tracer method is that the average annual rate of ground-water recharge over a period of time can be calculated from the depth of the peak tritium concentration in the aquifer. Assuming that ground-water flow is vertically downward and that aquifer properties are reasonably homogeneous, and knowing the date of maximum tritium concentration in precipitation and the current depth to the tritium peak from the water table, the average recharge rate can be calculated. The method, which is a direct-measurement technique, was applied at two sites on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. At site 1, the average annual recharge rate between 1964 and 1983 was 26.1 inches per year, or 68 percent of the average annual precipitation, and the estimated uncertainty is ?15 percent. At site 2, the multilevel water samplers were not constructed deep enough to determine the peak concentration of tritium in ground water. The tritium profile at site 2 resembles the upper part of the tritium profile at site 1 and indicates that the average recharge rate was at least 16 .7 inches per year, or at least 44 percent of the average annual precipitation. The Nantucket tritium recharge rates clearly are higher than rates determined elsewhere in southeastern Massachusetts using the tritium, water-table-fluctuation, and water-balance (Thornthwaite) methods, regardless of the method or the area. Because the recharge potential on Nantucket is so high (runoff is only 2 percent of the total water balance), the tritium recharge rates probably represent the effective upper limit for ground-water recharge in this region. The recharge-rate values used by Guswa and LeBlanc (1985) and LeBlanc (1984) in their ground-water-flow computer models of Cape Cod are 20 to 30 percent lower than this upper limit. The accuracy of the tritium method is dependent on two key factors: the accuracy of the effective-porosity data, and the sampling interval used at the site. For some sites, the need for recharge-rate data may require a determination as statistically accurate as that which can be provided by the tritium method. However, the tritium method is more costly and more time consuming than the other methods because numerous wells must be drilled and installed and because many water samples must be analyzed for tritium, to a very small level of analytical detection. For many sites, a less accurate, less expensive, and faster method of recharge-rate determination might be more satisfactory . The factor that most seriously limits the usefulness of the tritium tracer method is the current depth of the tritium peak. Water with peak concentrations of tritium entered the ground more than 20 years ago, and, according to the Nantucket data, that water now is more than 100 feet below the land surface. This suggests that the tracer method will work only in sand and gravel aquifers that are exceedingly thick by New England standards. Conversely, the results suggest that the method may work in areas where saturated thicknesses are less than 100 feet and the rate of vertical ground-water movement is relatively slow, such as in till and in silt- and clay-rich sand and gravel deposits.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses. Annual exceedance-probability discharge estimates were computed for 278 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a log-Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data from water year 1844 to 2012. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect potentially influential low floods. Annual peak flows less than a minimum recordable discharge at a streamgage were incorporated into the at-site station analyses. An updated regional skew coefficient was determined for the State of Missouri using Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least squares regression analyses. At-site skew estimates for 108 long-term streamgages with 30 or more years of record and the 35 basin characteristics defined for this study were used to estimate the regional variability in skew. However, a constant generalized-skew value of -0.30 and a mean square error of 0.14 were determined in this study. Previous flood studies indicated that the distinct physical features of the three physiographic provinces have a pronounced effect on the magnitude of flood peaks. Trends in the magnitudes of the residuals from preliminary statewide regression analyses from previous studies confirmed that regional analyses in this study were similar and related to three primary physiographic provinces. The final regional regression analyses resulted in three sets of equations. For Regions 1 and 2, the basin characteristics of drainage area and basin shape factor were statistically significant. For Region 3, because of the small amount of data from streamgages, only drainage area was statistically significant. Average standard errors of prediction ranged from 28.7 to 38.4 percent for flood region 1, 24.1 to 43.5 percent for flood region 2, and 25.8 to 30.5 percent for region 3. The regional regression equations are only applicable to stream sites in Missouri with flows not significantly affected by regulation, channelization, backwater, diversion, or urbanization. Basins with about 5 percent or less impervious area were considered to be rural. Applicability of the equations are limited to the basin characteristic values that range from 0.11 to 8,212.38 square miles (mi2) and basin shape from 2.25 to 26.59 for Region 1, 0.17 to 4,008.92 mi2 and basin shape 2.04 to 26.89 for Region 2, and 2.12 to 2,177.58 mi2 for Region 3. Annual peak data from streamgages were used to qualitatively assess the largest floods recorded at streamgages in Missouri since the 1915 water year. Based on existing streamgage data, the 1983 flood event was the largest flood event on record since 1915. The next five largest flood events, in descending order, took place in 1993, 1973, 2008, 1994 and 1915. Since 1915, five of six of the largest floods on record occurred from 1973 to 2012.

Methods and apparatus for reducing peak wind turbine loads

DOEpatents

Moroz, Emilian Mieczyslaw

2007-02-13

A method for reducing peak loads of wind turbines in a changing wind environment includes measuring or estimating an instantaneous wind speed and direction at the wind turbine and determining a yaw error of the wind turbine relative to the measured instantaneous wind direction. The method further includes comparing the yaw error to a yaw error trigger that has different values at different wind speeds and shutting down the wind turbine when the yaw error exceeds the yaw error trigger corresponding to the measured or estimated instantaneous wind speed.

Hillslope response to sprinkling and natural rainfall using velocity and celerity estimates in a slate-bedrock catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaini, Anna; Hissler, Christophe; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Juilleret, Jérôme; Iffly, Jean François; Pfister, Laurent; Beven, Keith

2018-03-01

Subsurface flow is often recognized as a dominant runoff generation process. However, observing subsurface properties, and understanding how they control flow pathways, remains challenging. This paper investigates how surface slope and bedrock cleavage control subsurface flow pathways in a slate bedrock headwater catchment in Luxembourg, characterised by a double-peak streamflow response. We use a range of experimental techniques, including field observations of soil and bedrock characteristics, and a sprinkling experiment at a site located 40 m upslope from the stream channel. The sprinkling experiment uses Br- as a tracer, which is measured at a well downslope from the plot and at various locations along the stream, together with well and stream hydrometric responses. The sprinkling experiment is used to estimate velocities and celerities, which in turn are used to infer flow pathways. Our results indicate that the single or first peak of double-peak events is rainfall-driven (controlled by rainfall) while the second peak is storage-driven (controlled by storage). The comparison between velocity and celerity estimates suggests a fast flowpath component connecting the hillslope to the stream, but velocity information was too scarce to fully support such a hypothesis. In addition, different estimates of celerities suggest a seasonal influence of both rainfall intensity rate and residual water storage on the celerity responses at the hillslope scale. At the catchment outlet, the estimated of the total mass of Br- recovered in the stream was about 2.5% of the application. Further downstream, the estimate mass of Br- was about 4.0% of the application. This demonstrates that flowpaths do not appear to align with the slope gradient. In contrast, they appear to follow the strike of the bedrock cleavage. Our results have expanded our understanding of the importance of the subsurface, in particular the underlying bedrock systems, and the importance of cleavage orientation, as well as topography, in controlling subsurface flow direction in this catchment.

Using Mathematical Transmission Modelling to Investigate Drivers of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Seasonality in Children in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Paynter, Stuart; Yakob, Laith; Simões, Eric A. F.; Lucero, Marilla G.; Tallo, Veronica; Nohynek, Hanna; Ware, Robert S.; Weinstein, Philip; Williams, Gail; Sly, Peter D.

2014-01-01

We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting. PMID:24587222

Application of the Extreme Value Distribution to Estimate the Uncertainty of Peak Sound Pressure Levels at the Workplace.

PubMed

Lenzuni, Paolo

2015-07-01

The purpose of this article is to develop a method for the statistical inference of the maximum peak sound pressure level and of the associated uncertainty. Both quantities are requested by the EU directive 2003/10/EC for a complete and solid assessment of the noise exposure at the workplace. Based on the characteristics of the sound pressure waveform, it is hypothesized that the distribution of the measured peak sound pressure levels follows the extreme value distribution. The maximum peak level is estimated as the largest member of a finite population following this probability distribution. The associated uncertainty is also discussed, taking into account not only the contribution due to the incomplete sampling but also the contribution due to the finite precision of the instrumentation. The largest of the set of measured peak levels underestimates the maximum peak sound pressure level. The underestimate can be as large as 4 dB if the number of measurements is limited to 3-4, which is common practice in occupational noise assessment. The extended uncertainty is also quite large (~2.5 dB), with a weak dependence on the sampling details. Following the procedure outlined in this article, a reliable comparison between the peak sound pressure levels measured in a workplace and the EU directive action limits is possible. Non-compliance can occur even when the largest of the set of measured peak levels is several dB below such limits. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Estimating changes in mean body temperature for humans during exercise using core and skin temperatures is inaccurate even with a correction factor.

PubMed

Jay, Ollie; Reardon, Francis D; Webb, Paul; Ducharme, Michel B; Ramsay, Tim; Nettlefold, Lindsay; Kenny, Glen P

2007-08-01

Changes in mean body temperature (DeltaT(b)) estimated by the traditional two-compartment model of "core" and "shell" temperatures and an adjusted two-compartment model incorporating a correction factor were compared with values derived by whole body calorimetry. Sixty participants (31 men, 29 women) cycled at 40% of peak O(2) consumption for 60 or 90 min in the Snellen calorimeter at 24 or 30 degrees C. The core compartment was represented by esophageal, rectal (T(re)), and aural canal temperature, and the shell compartment was represented by a 12-point mean skin temperature (T(sk)). Using T(re) and conventional core-to-shell weightings (X) of 0.66, 0.79, and 0.90, mean DeltaT(b) estimation error (with 95% confidence interval limits in parentheses) for the traditional model was -95.2% (-83.0, -107.3) to -76.6% (-72.8, -80.5) after 10 min and -47.2% (-40.9, -53.5) to -22.6% (-14.5, -30.7) after 90 min. Using T(re), X = 0.80, and a correction factor (X(0)) of 0.40, mean DeltaT(b) estimation error for the adjusted model was +9.5% (+16.9, +2.1) to -0.3% (+11.9, -12.5) after 10 min and +15.0% (+27.2, +2.8) to -13.7% (-4.2, -23.3) after 90 min. Quadratic analyses of calorimetry DeltaT(b) data was subsequently used to derive best-fitting values of X for both models and X(0) for the adjusted model for each measure of core temperature. The most accurate model at any time point or condition only accounted for 20% of the variation observed in DeltaT(b) for the traditional model and 56% for the adjusted model. In conclusion, throughout exercise the estimation of DeltaT(b) using any measure of core temperature together with mean skin temperature irrespective of weighting is inaccurate even with a correction factor customized for the specific conditions.

Instantaneous polarization analysis of ambient noise recordings in site response investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Gaudio, Vincenzo

2017-07-01

A new procedure is proposed for analyses of ambient noise aimed at investigating complex cases of site response to seismic shaking. Information on site response characterized by several resonance frequencies and by amplifications varying with direction can be obtained by analysing instantaneous polarization properties of ambient noise recordings. Through this kind of analysis, it is possible to identify Rayleigh wave packets emerging from incoherent background noise for very short intervals. Analysing noise recordings passed through narrow-band filters with different central frequencies, variations of Rayleigh wave properties depending on frequencies can be estimated. In particular, one can calculate: (i) the instantaneous ratios H/V between the amplitudes of horizontal and vertical components of the elliptical particle motion and (ii) the azimuthal direction of the vertical plane containing such a motion. These can be determined on a large number of recording samples, providing the basis for statistical estimates. A preferential concentration of H/V peak values at site-specific frequencies and directions can reveal directional resonance phenomena. Furthermore, peak amplitudes can be related to site amplification factors and provide constraints for subsurface velocity modelling. Some tests, carried out on data acquired at sites with known response properties, gave indications on how to select the parameters of the analysis that optimize its implementation. In particular, preliminary trials, conducted on a limited number of frequencies, allow the selection of the parameters that, while providing a large number of instantaneous H/V estimates for Rayleigh waves, minimize their scattering. The analysis can then be refined and an H/V curve as function of frequency can be obtained with a higher spectral resolution. First tests showed that cases of directional resonance can be more effectively recognized with this technique and more details can be revealed on its properties (e.g. secondary peaks) in comparison to the Nakamura's method currently employed for ordinary noise analysis. For sites characterized by isotropic response or by differently oriented directional maxima, however, the presence of noise sources with an anisotropic spatial distribution, which excite signals with inhomogeneous distribution of energy through the examined spectral band, can make the correct interpretation of data more difficult.

Massive Statistics of VLF-Induced Ionospheric Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoor, N.; Cohen, M.; Golkowski, M.

2017-12-01

The impact of lightning of the D-region of the ionosphere has been measured by Very Low Frequency (VLF) remote sensing, and can be seen through the observance of Early-Fast events. Previous research has indicated that several factors control the behavior and occurrence of these events, including the transmitter-receiver geometry, as well as the peak current and polarity of the strike. Unfortunately, since each event is unique due to the wide variety of impacting factors, it is difficult to make broad inferences about the interactions between the lightning and ionosphere. By investigating a large database of lightning-induced disturbances over a span of several years and over a continental-scale region, we seek to quantify the relationship between geometry, lightning parameters, and the apparent disturbance of the ionosphere as measured with VLF transmitters. We began with a set of 860,000 cases where an intense lightning stroke above 150 kA occurred within 300 km of a transmiter-receiver path. To then detect ionospheric disturbances from the large volume of VLF data and lightning incidents, we applied a number of classification methods to the actual VLF amplitude data, and find that the most accurate is a convolutional neural network, which yielded a detection efficiency of 95-98%, and a false positive rate less than 25%. Using this model, we were able to assemble a database of more than 97,000 events, with each event stored with its corresponding time, date, receiver, transmitter, and lightning parameters. Estimates for the peak and slope of each disruption were also calculated. From this data, we were able to chart the relationships between geometry and lightning parameters (peak current and polarity) towards the occurrence probability, perturbation intensity, and recovery time, of the VLF perturbation. The results of this analysis are presented here.

The acute effects of grape polyphenols supplementation on endothelial function in adults: meta-analyses of controlled trials.

PubMed

Li, Shao-Hua; Tian, Hong-Bo; Zhao, Hong-Jin; Chen, Liang-Hua; Cui, Lian-Qun

2013-01-01

The acute effects of grape polyphenols on endothelial function in adults are inconsistent. Here, we performed meta-analyses to determine these acute effects as measured by flow-mediated dilation (FMD). Trials were searched in PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library database. Summary estimates of weighted mean differences (WMDs) and 95% CIs were obtained by using random-effects models. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed to identify the source of heterogeneity. The protocol details of our meta-analysis have been submitted to the PROSPERO register and our registration number is CRD42013004157. Nine studies were included in the present meta-analyses. The results showed that the FMD level was significantly increased in the initial 120 min after intake of grape polyphenols as compared with controls. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed and showed that a health status was the main effect modifier of the significant heterogeneity. Subgroups indicated that intake of grape polyphenols could significantly increase FMD in healthy subjects, and the increased FMD appeared to be more obviously in subjects with high cardiovascular risk factors. Moreover, the peak effect of grape polyphenols on FMD in healthy subjects was found 30 min after ingestion, which was different from the effect in subjects with high cardiovascular risk factors, in whom the peak effect was found 60 min after ingestion. Endothelial function can be significantly improved in healthy adults in the initial 2 h after intake of grape polyphenols. The acute effect of grape polyphenols on endothelial function may be more significant but the peak effect is delayed in subjects with a smoking history or coronary heart disease as compared with the healthy subjects.

The Acute Effects of Grape Polyphenols Supplementation on Endothelial Function in Adults: Meta-Analyses of Controlled Trials

PubMed Central

Li, Shao-Hua; Tian, Hong-Bo; Zhao, Hong-Jin; Chen, Liang-Hua; Cui, Lian-Qun

2013-01-01

Background The acute effects of grape polyphenols on endothelial function in adults are inconsistent. Here, we performed meta-analyses to determine these acute effects as measured by flow-mediated dilation (FMD). Methods Trials were searched in PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library database. Summary estimates of weighted mean differences (WMDs) and 95% CIs were obtained by using random-effects models. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed to identify the source of heterogeneity. The protocol details of our meta-analysis have been submitted to the PROSPERO register and our registration number is CRD42013004157. Results Nine studies were included in the present meta-analyses. The results showed that the FMD level was significantly increased in the initial 120 min after intake of grape polyphenols as compared with controls. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed and showed that a health status was the main effect modifier of the significant heterogeneity. Subgroups indicated that intake of grape polyphenols could significantly increase FMD in healthy subjects, and the increased FMD appeared to be more obviously in subjects with high cardiovascular risk factors. Moreover, the peak effect of grape polyphenols on FMD in healthy subjects was found 30 min after ingestion, which was different from the effect in subjects with high cardiovascular risk factors, in whom the peak effect was found 60 min after ingestion. Conclusions Endothelial function can be significantly improved in healthy adults in the initial 2 h after intake of grape polyphenols. The acute effect of grape polyphenols on endothelial function may be more significant but the peak effect is delayed in subjects with a smoking history or coronary heart disease as compared with the healthy subjects. PMID:23894543

Peaks Over Threshold (POT): A methodology for automatic threshold estimation using goodness of fit p-value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solari, Sebastián.; Egüen, Marta; Polo, María. José; Losada, Miguel A.

2017-04-01

Threshold estimation in the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method and the impact of the estimation method on the calculation of high return period quantiles and their uncertainty (or confidence intervals) are issues that are still unresolved. In the past, methods based on goodness of fit tests and EDF-statistics have yielded satisfactory results, but their use has not yet been systematized. This paper proposes a methodology for automatic threshold estimation, based on the Anderson-Darling EDF-statistic and goodness of fit test. When combined with bootstrapping techniques, this methodology can be used to quantify both the uncertainty of threshold estimation and its impact on the uncertainty of high return period quantiles. This methodology was applied to several simulated series and to four precipitation/river flow data series. The results obtained confirmed its robustness. For the measured series, the estimated thresholds corresponded to those obtained by nonautomatic methods. Moreover, even though the uncertainty of the threshold estimation was high, this did not have a significant effect on the width of the confidence intervals of high return period quantiles.

Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip complex for knee-impact loading.

PubMed

Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Kuppa, Shashi M

2010-01-01

Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip (KTH) relate peak force applied to the anterior aspect of the flexed knee, the primary source of KTH injury in frontal motor-vehicle crashes, to the probability of skeletal KTH injury. Previous KTH injury risk curves have been developed from analyses of peak knee-impact force data from studies where knees of whole cadavers were impacted. However, these risk curves either neglect the effects of occupant gender, stature, and mass on KTH fracture force, or account for them using scaling factors derived from dimensional analysis without empirical support. A large amount of experimental data on the knee-impact forces associated with KTH fracture are now available, making it possible to estimate the effects of subject characteristics on skeletal KTH injury risk by statistically analyzing empirical data. Eleven studies were identified in the biomechanical literature in which the flexed knees of whole cadavers were impacted. From these, peak knee-impact force data and the associated subject characteristics were reanalyzed using survival analysis with a lognormal distribution. Results of this analysis indicate that the relationship between peak knee-impact force and the probability of KTH fracture is a function of age, total body mass, and whether the surface that loads the knee is rigid. Comparisons between injury risk curves for the midsize adult male and small adult female crash test dummies defined in previous studies and new risk curves for these sizes of occupants developed in this study suggest that previous injury risk curves generally overestimate the likelihood of KTH fracture at a given peak knee-impact force. Future work should focus on defining the relationships between impact force at the human knee and peak axial compressive forces measured by load cells in the crash test dummy KTH complex so that these new risk curves can be used with ATDs.

Effects of blood pressure and sex on the change of wave reflection: evidence from Gaussian fitting method for radial artery pressure waveform.

PubMed

Liu, Chengyu; Zhao, Lina; Liu, Changchun

2014-01-01

An early return of the reflected component in the arterial pulse has been recognized as an important indicator of cardiovascular risk. This study aimed to determine the effects of blood pressure and sex factor on the change of wave reflection using Gaussian fitting method. One hundred and ninety subjects were enrolled. They were classified into four blood pressure categories based on the systolic blood pressures (i.e., ≤ 110, 111-120, 121-130 and ≥ 131 mmHg). Each blood pressure category was also stratified for sex factor. Electrocardiogram (ECG) and radial artery pressure waveforms (RAPW) signals were recorded for each subject. Ten consecutive pulse episodes from the RAPW signal were extracted and normalized. Each normalized pulse episode was fitted by three Gaussian functions. Both the peak position and peak height of the first and second Gaussian functions, as well as the peak position interval and peak height ratio, were used as the evaluation indices of wave reflection. Two-way ANOVA results showed that with the increased blood pressure, the peak position of the second Gaussian significantly shorten (P < 0.01), the peak height of the first Gaussian significantly decreased (P < 0.01) and the peak height of the second Gaussian significantly increased (P < 0.01), inducing the significantly decreased peak position interval and significantly increased peak height ratio (both P < 0.01). Sex factor had no significant effect on all evaluation indices (all P > 0.05). Moreover, the interaction between sex and blood pressure factors also had no significant effect on all evaluation indices (all P > 0.05). These results showed that blood pressure has significant effect on the change of wave reflection when using the recently developed Gaussian fitting method, whereas sex has no significant effect. The results also suggested that the Gaussian fitting method could be used as a new approach for assessing the arterial wave reflection.

Thermoacoustic range verification using a clinical ultrasound array provides perfectly co-registered overlay of the Bragg peak onto an ultrasound image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patch, S. K.; Kireeff Covo, M.; Jackson, A.; Qadadha, Y. M.; Campbell, K. S.; Albright, R. A.; Bloemhard, P.; Donoghue, A. P.; Siero, C. R.; Gimpel, T. L.; Small, S. M.; Ninemire, B. F.; Johnson, M. B.; Phair, L.

2016-08-01

The potential of particle therapy due to focused dose deposition in the Bragg peak has not yet been fully realized due to inaccuracies in range verification. The purpose of this work was to correlate the Bragg peak location with target structure, by overlaying the location of the Bragg peak onto a standard ultrasound image. Pulsed delivery of 50 MeV protons was accomplished by a fast chopper installed between the ion source and the cyclotron inflector. The chopper limited the train of bunches so that 2 Gy were delivered in 2 μ \\text{s} . The ion pulse generated thermoacoustic pulses that were detected by a cardiac ultrasound array, which also produced a grayscale ultrasound image. A filtered backprojection algorithm focused the received signal to the Bragg peak location with perfect co-registration to the ultrasound images. Data was collected in a room temperature water bath and gelatin phantom with a cavity designed to mimic the intestine, in which gas pockets can displace the Bragg peak. Phantom experiments performed with the cavity both empty and filled with olive oil confirmed that displacement of the Bragg peak due to anatomical change could be detected. Thermoacoustic range measurements in the waterbath agreed with Monte Carlo simulation within 1.2 mm. In the phantom, thermoacoustic range estimates and first-order range estimates from CT images agreed to within 1.5 mm.

PolyaPeak: Detecting Transcription Factor Binding Sites from ChIP-seq Using Peak Shape Information

PubMed Central

Wu, Hao; Ji, Hongkai

2014-01-01

ChIP-seq is a powerful technology for detecting genomic regions where a protein of interest interacts with DNA. ChIP-seq data for mapping transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) have a characteristic pattern: around each binding site, sequence reads aligned to the forward and reverse strands of the reference genome form two separate peaks shifted away from each other, and the true binding site is located in between these two peaks. While it has been shown previously that the accuracy and resolution of binding site detection can be improved by modeling the pattern, efficient methods are unavailable to fully utilize that information in TFBS detection procedure. We present PolyaPeak, a new method to improve TFBS detection by incorporating the peak shape information. PolyaPeak describes peak shapes using a flexible Pólya model. The shapes are automatically learnt from the data using Minorization-Maximization (MM) algorithm, then integrated with the read count information via a hierarchical model to distinguish true binding sites from background noises. Extensive real data analyses show that PolyaPeak is capable of robustly improving TFBS detection compared with existing methods. An R package is freely available. PMID:24608116

Spatial and temporal disaggregation of transport-related carbon dioxide emissions in Bogota - Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Gonzalez, L. A.; Jimenez Pizarro, R.; Néstor Y. Rojas, N. Y.

2011-12-01

As a result of rapid urbanization during the last 60 years, 75% of the Colombian population now lives in cities. Urban areas are net sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute significantly to national GHG emission inventories. The development of scientifically-sound GHG mitigation strategies require accurate GHG source and sink estimations. Disaggregated inventories are effective mitigation decision-making tools. The disaggregation process renders detailed information on the distribution of emissions by transport mode, and the resulting a priori emissions map allows for optimal definition of sites for GHG flux monitoring, either by eddy covariance or inverse modeling techniques. Fossil fuel use in transportation is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Bogota. We present estimates of CO2 emissions from road traffic in Bogota using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reference method, and a spatial and temporal disaggregation method. Aggregated CO2 emissions from mobile sources were estimated from monthly and annual fossil fuel (gasoline, diesel and compressed natural gas - CNG) consumption statistics, and estimations of bio-ethanol and bio-diesel use. Although bio-fuel CO2 emissions are considered balanced over annual (or multi-annual) agricultural cycles, we included them since CO2 generated by their combustion would be measurable by a net flux monitoring system. For the disaggregation methodology, we used information on Bogota's road network classification, mean travel speed and trip length for each vehicle category and road type. The CO2 emission factors were taken from recent in-road measurements for gasoline- and CNG-powered vehicles and also estimated from COPERT IV. We estimated emission factors for diesel from surveys on average trip length and fuel consumption. Using IPCC's reference method, we estimate Bogota's total transport-related CO2 emissions for 2008 (reference year) at 4.8 Tg CO2. The disaggregation method estimation is 16% lower, mainly due to uncertainty in activity factors. With only 4% of Bogota's fleet, diesel use accounts for 42% of the CO2 emissions. The emissions are almost evenly shared between public (9% of the fleet) and private transport. Peak emissions occur at 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. with maximum values over a densely industrialized area at the northwest of Bogota. This investigation allowed estimating the relative contribution of fuel and vehicle categories to spatially- and temporally-resolved CO2 emissions. Fuel consumption time series indicate a near-stabilization trend on energy consumption for transportation, which is unexpected taking into account the sustained economic and vehicle fleet growth in Bogota. The comparison of the disaggregation methodology with the IPCC methodology contributes to the analysis of possible error sources on activity factor estimations. This information is very useful for uncertainty estimation and adjustment of primary air pollutant emissions inventories.

Language-related cerebral oscillatory changes are influenced equally by genetic and environmental factors.

PubMed

Araki, Toshihiko; Hirata, Masayuki; Yanagisawa, Takufumi; Sugata, Hisato; Onishi, Mai; Watanabe, Yoshiyuki; Ogata, Soshiro; Honda, Chika; Hayakawa, Kazuo; Yorifuji, Shiro

2016-11-15

Twin studies have suggested that there are genetic influences on inter-individual variation in terms of verbal abilities, and candidate genes have been identified by genome-wide association studies. However, the brain activities under genetic influence during linguistic processing remain unclear. In this study, we investigated neuromagnetic activities during a language task in a group of 28 monozygotic (MZ) and 12 dizygotic (DZ) adult twin pairs. We examined the spatio-temporal distribution of the event-related desynchronizations (ERDs) in the low gamma band (25-50Hz) using beamformer analyses and time-frequency analyses. Heritability was evaluated by comparing the respective MZ and DZ correlations. The genetic and environmental contributions were then estimated by structural equation modeling (SEM). We found that the peaks of the low gamma ERDs were localized to the left frontal area. The power of low gamma ERDs in this area exhibited higher similarity between MZ twins than that between DZ twins. SEM estimated the genetic contribution as approximately 50%. In addition, these powers were negatively correlated with the behavioral verbal scores. These results improve our understanding of how genetic and environmental factors influence cerebral activities during linguistic processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coseismic landslides reveal near-surface rock strength in a high-relief tectonically active setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallen, Sean F.; Clark, Marin K.; Godt, Jonathan W.

2014-01-01

We present quantitative estimates of near-surface rock strength relevant to landscape evolution and landslide hazard assessment for 15 geologic map units of the Longmen Shan, China. Strength estimates are derived from a novel method that inverts earthquake peak ground acceleration models and coseismic landslide inventories to obtain material proper- ties and landslide thickness. Aggregate rock strength is determined by prescribing a friction angle of 30° and solving for effective cohesion. Effective cohesion ranges are from 70 kPa to 107 kPa for 15 geologic map units, and are approximately an order of magnitude less than typical laboratory measurements, probably because laboratory tests on hand-sized specimens do not incorporate the effects of heterogeneity and fracturing that likely control near-surface strength at the hillslope scale. We find that strength among the geologic map units studied varies by less than a factor of two. However, increased weakening of units with proximity to the range front, where precipitation and active fault density are the greatest, suggests that cli- matic and tectonic factors overwhelm lithologic differences in rock strength in this high-relief tectonically active setting.

Ethylene and cold participate in the regulation of LeCBF1 gene expression in postharvest tomato fruits.

PubMed

Zhao, Danying; Shen, Lin; Fan, Bei; Yu, Mengmeng; Zheng, Yang; Lv, Shengnan; Sheng, Jiping

2009-10-20

C-repeat/dehydration-responsive element binding factor (CBF) is a transcription factor regulating cold response in plants, of which little is known in fruits. We showed a double-peak expression pattern of Lycopersicon esculentum putative transcriptional activator CBF1 (LeCBF1) in mature green fruit. The peaks appeared at 2 and 16 h after subjection to cold storage (2 degrees C). The second peak was coincident with, and thus caused by a peak in endogenous ethylene production. We showed that LeCBF1 expression was regulated by exogenous ethylene and 1-methylcyclopropene, and was not expressed without cold induction. LeCBF1 expression was different in the five maturation stages of fruits, but expression peaked at 2 h at all stages.

How accurately can the peak skin dose in fluoroscopy be determined using indirect dose metrics?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, A. Kyle, E-mail: kyle.jones@mdanderson.org; Ensor, Joe E.; Pasciak, Alexander S.

Purpose: Skin dosimetry is important for fluoroscopically-guided interventions, as peak skin doses (PSD) that result in skin reactions can be reached during these procedures. There is no consensus as to whether or not indirect skin dosimetry is sufficiently accurate for fluoroscopically-guided interventions. However, measuring PSD with film is difficult and the decision to do so must be madea priori. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of different types of indirect dose estimates and to determine if PSD can be calculated within ±50% using indirect dose metrics for embolization procedures. Methods: PSD were measured directly using radiochromicmore » film for 41 consecutive embolization procedures at two sites. Indirect dose metrics from the procedures were collected, including reference air kerma. Four different estimates of PSD were calculated from the indirect dose metrics and compared along with reference air kerma to the measured PSD for each case. The four indirect estimates included a standard calculation method, the use of detailed information from the radiation dose structured report, and two simplified calculation methods based on the standard method. Indirect dosimetry results were compared with direct measurements, including an analysis of uncertainty associated with film dosimetry. Factors affecting the accuracy of the different indirect estimates were examined. Results: When using the standard calculation method, calculated PSD were within ±35% for all 41 procedures studied. Calculated PSD were within ±50% for a simplified method using a single source-to-patient distance for all calculations. Reference air kerma was within ±50% for all but one procedure. Cases for which reference air kerma or calculated PSD exhibited large (±35%) differences from the measured PSD were analyzed, and two main causative factors were identified: unusually small or large source-to-patient distances and large contributions to reference air kerma from cone beam computed tomography or acquisition runs acquired at large primary gantry angles. When calculated uncertainty limits [−12.8%, 10%] were applied to directly measured PSD, most indirect PSD estimates remained within ±50% of the measured PSD. Conclusions: Using indirect dose metrics, PSD can be determined within ±35% for embolization procedures. Reference air kerma can be used without modification to set notification limits and substantial radiation dose levels, provided the displayed reference air kerma is accurate. These results can reasonably be extended to similar procedures, including vascular and interventional oncology. Considering these results, film dosimetry is likely an unnecessary effort for these types of procedures when indirect dose metrics are available.« less

Quantification of carbamylated albumin in serum based on capillary electrophoresis.

PubMed

Delanghe, Sigurd; Moerman, Alena; Pletinck, Anneleen; Schepers, Eva; Glorieux, Griet; Van Biesen, Wim; Delanghe, Joris R; Speeckaert, Marijn M

2017-09-01

Protein carbamylation, a nonenzymatic posttranslational modification promoted during uremia, is linked to a poor prognosis. In the present study, carbamylation of serum albumin was assayed using the symmetry factor on a capillary electrophoresis instrument (Helena V8). The symmetry factor has been defined as the distance from the center line of the peak to the back slope, divided by the distance from the center line of the peak to the front slope, with all measurements made at 10% of the maximum peak height. Serum albumin, creatinine, and urea concentrations were assayed using routine methods, whereas uremic toxins were determined using HPLC. In vitro carbamylation induced a marked albumin peak asymmetry. Reference values for the albumin symmetry factor were 0.69-0.92. In kidney patients, albumin peak asymmetry corresponded to the chronic kidney disease stage (p < 0.0001). The symmetry factor correlated well with serum urea (r = -0.5595, p < 0.0001) and creatinine (r = -0.5986, p < 0.0001) concentrations. Several protein-bound uremic toxins showed a significant negative correlation with the symmetry factor. Morphology of the albumin fraction was not affected by presence of glycated albumin and protein-bound antibiotics. In conclusion, the presented method provides a simple, practical way for monitoring protein carbamylation. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Enabling real-time ultrasound imaging of soft tissue mechanical properties by simplification of the shear wave motion equation.

PubMed

Engel, Aaron J; Bashford, Gregory R

2015-08-01

Ultrasound based shear wave elastography (SWE) is a technique used for non-invasive characterization and imaging of soft tissue mechanical properties. Robust estimation of shear wave propagation speed is essential for imaging of soft tissue mechanical properties. In this study we propose to estimate shear wave speed by inversion of the first-order wave equation following directional filtering. This approach relies on estimation of first-order derivatives which allows for accurate estimations using smaller smoothing filters than when estimating second-order derivatives. The performance was compared to three current methods used to estimate shear wave propagation speed: direct inversion of the wave equation (DIWE), time-to-peak (TTP) and cross-correlation (CC). The shear wave speed of three homogeneous phantoms of different elastic moduli (gelatin by weight of 5%, 7%, and 9%) were measured with each method. The proposed method was shown to produce shear speed estimates comparable to the conventional methods (standard deviation of measurements being 0.13 m/s, 0.05 m/s, and 0.12 m/s), but with simpler processing and usually less time (by a factor of 1, 13, and 20 for DIWE, CC, and TTP respectively). The proposed method was able to produce a 2-D speed estimate from a single direction of wave propagation in about four seconds using an off-the-shelf PC, showing the feasibility of performing real-time or near real-time elasticity imaging with dedicated hardware.

Special Nuclear Material Gamma-Ray Signatures for Reachback Analysts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karpius, Peter Joseph; Myers, Steven Charles

2016-08-29

These are slides on special nuclear material gamma-ray signatures for reachback analysts for an LSS Spectroscopy course. The closing thoughts for this presentation are the following: SNM materials have definite spectral signatures that should be readily recognizable to analysts in both bare and shielded configurations. One can estimate burnup of plutonium using certain pairs of peaks that are a few keV apart. In most cases, one cannot reliably estimate uranium enrichment in an analogous way to the estimation of plutonium burnup. The origin of the most intense peaks from some SNM items may be indirect and from ‘associated nuclides.' Indirectmore » SNM signatures sometimes have commonalities with the natural gamma-ray background.« less

[Detection of quadratic phase coupling between EEG signal components by nonparamatric and parametric methods of bispectral analysis].

PubMed

Schmidt, K; Witte, H

1999-11-01

Recently the assumption of the independence of individual frequency components in a signal has been rejected, for example, for the EEG during defined physiological states such as sleep or sedation [9, 10]. Thus, the use of higher-order spectral analysis capable of detecting interrelations between individual signal components has proved useful. The aim of the present study was to investigate the quality of various non-parametric and parametric estimation algorithms using simulated as well as true physiological data. We employed standard algorithms available for the MATLAB. The results clearly show that parametric bispectral estimation is superior to non-parametric estimation in terms of the quality of peak localisation and the discrimination from other peaks.

Peak skin and eye lens radiation dose from brain perfusion CT based on Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H; Villablanca, J Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H; Cody, Dianna D; Stevens, Donna M; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J; Turner, Adam C; Khatonabadi, Maryam; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2012-02-01

The purpose of our study was to accurately estimate the radiation dose to skin and the eye lens from clinical CT brain perfusion studies, investigate how well scanner output (expressed as volume CT dose index [CTDI(vol)]) matches these estimated doses, and investigate the efficacy of eye lens dose reduction techniques. Peak skin dose and eye lens dose were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation methods on a voxelized patient model and 64-MDCT scanners from four major manufacturers. A range of clinical protocols was evaluated. CTDI(vol) for each scanner was obtained from the scanner console. Dose reduction to the eye lens was evaluated for various gantry tilt angles as well as scan locations. Peak skin dose and eye lens dose ranged from 81 mGy to 348 mGy, depending on the scanner and protocol used. Peak skin dose and eye lens dose were observed to be 66-79% and 59-63%, respectively, of the CTDI(vol) values reported by the scanners. The eye lens dose was significantly reduced when the eye lenses were not directly irradiated. CTDI(vol) should not be interpreted as patient dose; this study has shown it to overestimate dose to the skin or eye lens. These results may be used to provide more accurate estimates of actual dose to ensure that protocols are operated safely below thresholds. Tilting the gantry or moving the scanning region further away from the eyes are effective for reducing lens dose in clinical practice. These actions should be considered when they are consistent with the clinical task and patient anatomy.

High variability in strain estimation errors when using a commercial ultrasound speckle tracking algorithm on tendon tissue.

PubMed

Fröberg, Åsa; Mårtensson, Mattias; Larsson, Matilda; Janerot-Sjöberg, Birgitta; D'Hooge, Jan; Arndt, Anton

2016-10-01

Ultrasound speckle tracking offers a non-invasive way of studying strain in the free Achilles tendon where no anatomical landmarks are available for tracking. This provides new possibilities for studying injury mechanisms during sport activity and the effects of shoes, orthotic devices, and rehabilitation protocols on tendon biomechanics. To investigate the feasibility of using a commercial ultrasound speckle tracking algorithm for assessing strain in tendon tissue. A polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) phantom, three porcine tendons, and a human Achilles tendon were mounted in a materials testing machine and loaded to 4% peak strain. Ultrasound long-axis cine-loops of the samples were recorded. Speckle tracking analysis of axial strain was performed using a commercial speckle tracking software. Estimated strain was then compared to reference strain known from the materials testing machine. Two frame rates and two region of interest (ROI) sizes were evaluated. Best agreement between estimated strain and reference strain was found in the PVA phantom (absolute error in peak strain: 0.21 ± 0.08%). The absolute error in peak strain varied between 0.72 ± 0.65% and 10.64 ± 3.40% in the different tendon samples. Strain determined with a frame rate of 39.4 Hz had lower errors than 78.6 Hz as was the case with a 22 mm compared to an 11 mm ROI. Errors in peak strain estimation showed high variability between tendon samples and were large in relation to strain levels previously described in the Achilles tendon. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2016.

Accurate Orientation Estimation Using AHRS under Conditions of Magnetic Distortion

PubMed Central

Yadav, Nagesh; Bleakley, Chris

2014-01-01

Low cost, compact attitude heading reference systems (AHRS) are now being used to track human body movements in indoor environments by estimation of the 3D orientation of body segments. In many of these systems, heading estimation is achieved by monitoring the strength of the Earth's magnetic field. However, the Earth's magnetic field can be locally distorted due to the proximity of ferrous and/or magnetic objects. Herein, we propose a novel method for accurate 3D orientation estimation using an AHRS, comprised of an accelerometer, gyroscope and magnetometer, under conditions of magnetic field distortion. The system performs online detection and compensation for magnetic disturbances, due to, for example, the presence of ferrous objects. The magnetic distortions are detected by exploiting variations in magnetic dip angle, relative to the gravity vector, and in magnetic strength. We investigate and show the advantages of using both magnetic strength and magnetic dip angle for detecting the presence of magnetic distortions. The correction method is based on a particle filter, which performs the correction using an adaptive cost function and by adapting the variance during particle resampling, so as to place more emphasis on the results of dead reckoning of the gyroscope measurements and less on the magnetometer readings. The proposed method was tested in an indoor environment in the presence of various magnetic distortions and under various accelerations (up to 3 g). In the experiments, the proposed algorithm achieves <2° static peak-to-peak error and <5° dynamic peak-to-peak error, significantly outperforming previous methods. PMID:25347584

Cognitive load during speech perception in noise: the influence of age, hearing loss, and cognition on the pupil response.

PubMed

Zekveld, Adriana A; Kramer, Sophia E; Festen, Joost M

2011-01-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of age, hearing loss, and cognitive ability on the cognitive processing load during listening to speech presented in noise. Cognitive load was assessed by means of pupillometry (i.e., examination of pupil dilation), supplemented with subjective ratings. Two groups of subjects participated: 38 middle-aged participants (mean age = 55 yrs) with normal hearing and 36 middle-aged participants (mean age = 61 yrs) with hearing loss. Using three Speech Reception Threshold (SRT) in stationary noise tests, we estimated the speech-to-noise ratios (SNRs) required for the correct repetition of 50%, 71%, or 84% of the sentences (SRT50%, SRT71%, and SRT84%, respectively). We examined the pupil response during listening: the peak amplitude, the peak latency, the mean dilation, and the pupil response duration. For each condition, participants rated the experienced listening effort and estimated their performance level. Participants also performed the Text Reception Threshold (TRT) test, a test of processing speed, and a word vocabulary test. Data were compared with previously published data from young participants with normal hearing. Hearing loss was related to relatively poor SRTs, and higher speech intelligibility was associated with lower effort and higher performance ratings. For listeners with normal hearing, increasing age was associated with poorer TRTs and slower processing speed but with larger word vocabulary. A multivariate repeated-measures analysis of variance indicated main effects of group and SNR and an interaction effect between these factors on the pupil response. The peak latency was relatively short and the mean dilation was relatively small at low intelligibility levels for the middle-aged groups, whereas the reverse was observed for high intelligibility levels. The decrease in the pupil response as a function of increasing SNR was relatively small for the listeners with hearing loss. Spearman correlation coefficients indicated that the cognitive load was larger in listeners with better TRT performances as reflected by a longer peak latency (normal-hearing participants, SRT50% condition) and a larger peak amplitude and longer response duration (hearing-impaired participants, SRT50% and SRT84% conditions). Also, a larger word vocabulary was related to longer response duration in the SRT84% condition for the participants with normal hearing. The pupil response systematically increased with decreasing speech intelligibility. Ageing and hearing loss were related to less release from effort when increasing the intelligibility of speech in noise. In difficult listening conditions, these factors may induce cognitive overload relatively early or they may be associated with relatively shallow speech processing. More research is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms explaining these results. Better TRTs and larger word vocabulary were related to higher mental processing load across speech intelligibility levels. This indicates that utilizing linguistic ability to improve speech perception is associated with increased listening load.

The effect of motorcycle helmet fit on estimating head impact kinematics from residual liner crush.

PubMed

Bonin, Stephanie J; Gardiner, John C; Onar-Thomas, Arzu; Asfour, Shihab S; Siegmund, Gunter P

2017-09-01

Proper helmet fit is important for optimizing head protection during an impact, yet many motorcyclists wear helmets that do not properly fit their heads. The goals of this study are i) to quantify how a mismatch in headform size and motorcycle helmet size affects headform peak acceleration and head injury criteria (HIC), and ii) to determine if peak acceleration, HIC, and impact speed can be estimated from the foam liner's maximum residual crush depth or residual crush volume. Shorty-style helmets (4 sizes of a single model) were tested on instrumented headforms (4 sizes) during linear impacts between 2.0 and 10.5m/s to the forehead region. Helmets were CT scanned to quantify residual crush depth and volume. Separate linear regression models were used to quantify how the response variables (peak acceleration (g), HIC, and impact speed (m/s)) were related to the predictor variables (maximum crush depth (mm), crush volume (cm 3 ), and the difference in circumference between the helmet and headform (cm)). Overall, we found that increasingly oversized helmets reduced peak headform acceleration and HIC for a given impact speed for maximum residual crush depths less than 7.9mm and residual crush volume less than 40cm 3 . Below these levels of residual crush, we found that peak headform acceleration, HIC, and impact speed can be estimated from a helmet's residual crush. Above these crush thresholds, large variations in headform kinematics are present, possibly related to densification of the foam liner during the impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis and reporting for streamgages in or near Montana based on data through water year 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2018-05-10

This report documents the methods for peak-flow frequency (hereinafter “frequency”) analysis and reporting for streamgages in and near Montana following implementation of the Bulletin 17C guidelines. The methods are used to provide estimates of peak-flow quantiles for 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for selected streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center (WY–MT WSC). These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Standard procedures specific to the WY–MT WSC for implementing the Bulletin 17C guidelines include (1) the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm analysis for fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution, incorporating historical information where applicable; (2) the use of weighted skew coefficients (based on weighting at-site station skew coefficients with generalized skew coefficients from the Bulletin 17B national skew map); and (3) the use of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test for identifying potentially influential low flows. For some streamgages, the peak-flow records are not well represented by the standard procedures and require user-specified adjustments informed by hydrologic judgement. The specific characteristics of peak-flow records addressed by the informed-user adjustments include (1) regulated peak-flow records, (2) atypical upper-tail peak-flow records, and (3) atypical lower-tail peak-flow records. In all cases, the informed-user adjustments use the Expected Moments Algorithm fit of the log-Pearson Type III distribution using the at-site station skew coefficient, a manual potentially influential low flow threshold, or both.Appropriate methods can be applied to at-site frequency estimates to provide improved representation of long-term hydroclimatic conditions. The methods for improving at-site frequency estimates by weighting with regional regression equations and by Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III record extension are described.Frequency analyses were conducted for 99 example streamgages to indicate various aspects of the frequency-analysis methods described in this report. The frequency analyses and results for the example streamgages are presented in a separate data release associated with this report consisting of tables and graphical plots that are structured to include information concerning the interpretive decisions involved in the frequency analyses. Further, the separate data release includes the input files to the PeakFQ program, version 7.1, including the peak-flow data file and the analysis specification file that were used in the peak-flow frequency analyses. Peak-flow frequencies are also reported in separate data releases for selected streamgages in the Beaverhead River and Clark Fork Basins and also for selected streamgages in the Ruby, Jefferson, and Madison River Basins.

Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu; Wang, Rong; Wang, Bin; Shen, Guofeng; Li, Wei; Su, Shenshen; Huang, Ye; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin; Li, Bengang; Sun, Kang

2011-04-01

Emission from motor vehicles is the most important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas. Emission factors of individual PAHs for motor vehicles reported in the literature varied 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission inventory. In this study, key factors affecting emission factors of PAHs (EF PAH) for motor vehicles were evaluated quantitatively based on thousands of EF PAH measured in 16 countries for over 50 years. The result was used to develop a global emission inventory of PAHs from motor vehicles. It was found that country and vehicle model year are the most important factors affecting EF PAH, which can be quantified using a monovariate regression model with per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity) as a sole independent variable. On average, 29% of variation in log-transformed EF PAH could be explained by the model, which was equivalent to 90% reduction in overall uncertainty on arithmetic scale. The model was used to predict EF PAH and subsequently PAH emissions from motor vehicles for various countries in the world during a period from 1971 to 2030. It was estimated that the global emission reached its peak value of approximate 101 Gg in 1978 and decreased afterwards due to emission control in developed countries. The annual emission picked up again since 1990 owing to accelerated energy consumption in China and other developing countries. With more and more rigid control measures taken in the developing world, global emission of PAHs is currently passing its second peak. It was predicted that the emission would decrease from 77 Gg in 2010 to 42 Gg in 2030.

Design flow factors for sewerage systems in small arid communities.

PubMed

Imam, Emad H; Elnakar, Haitham Y

2014-09-01

Reliable estimation of sewage flow rates is essential for the proper design of sewers, pumping stations, and treatment plants. The design of the various components of the sewerage system should be based on the most critical flow rates with a focus on extremely low and peak flow rates that would be sustained for a duration related to the acceptable limits of behavior of the components under consideration. The extreme flow conditions and to what extent they differ from the average values are closely related to the size of the community or network, and the socioeconomic conditions. A single pumping station is usually sufficient to pump flow from small community in either flat or non-undulating topography. Therefore, the hydraulic loading on the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) results from the pumped flow from the pumping station rather than the trunk sewer flow. The intermittent operation of the pumping units further accentuates the sewage hydrograph in the final trunk sewer. Accordingly, the design flow for the various components of the WWTP should be determined based on their relevant flow factors. In this study, analysis of one representative small community out of five monitored small communities in Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is presented. Pumped sewage flow rates were measured and the sewer incoming flows were hydraulically derived. The hourly and daily sewer and pumped flow records were analyzed to derive the relationship between the flow factors that would be sustained for various durations (instantaneously, 1 h, 2 h, etc.) and their probability of non-exceedance. The resulting peaking factors with a consideration for their sustained flow duration and specified probability would permit the design of the various components of the treatment plant using more accurate critical flows.

Design flow factors for sewerage systems in small arid communities

PubMed Central

Imam, Emad H.; Elnakar, Haitham Y.

2013-01-01

Reliable estimation of sewage flow rates is essential for the proper design of sewers, pumping stations, and treatment plants. The design of the various components of the sewerage system should be based on the most critical flow rates with a focus on extremely low and peak flow rates that would be sustained for a duration related to the acceptable limits of behavior of the components under consideration. The extreme flow conditions and to what extent they differ from the average values are closely related to the size of the community or network, and the socioeconomic conditions. A single pumping station is usually sufficient to pump flow from small community in either flat or non-undulating topography. Therefore, the hydraulic loading on the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) results from the pumped flow from the pumping station rather than the trunk sewer flow. The intermittent operation of the pumping units further accentuates the sewage hydrograph in the final trunk sewer. Accordingly, the design flow for the various components of the WWTP should be determined based on their relevant flow factors. In this study, analysis of one representative small community out of five monitored small communities in Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is presented. Pumped sewage flow rates were measured and the sewer incoming flows were hydraulically derived. The hourly and daily sewer and pumped flow records were analyzed to derive the relationship between the flow factors that would be sustained for various durations (instantaneously, 1 h, 2 h, etc.) and their probability of non-exceedance. The resulting peaking factors with a consideration for their sustained flow duration and specified probability would permit the design of the various components of the treatment plant using more accurate critical flows. PMID:25685521

An empirical method for estimating travel times for wet volcanic mass flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Thomas C.

1998-01-01

Travel times for wet volcanic mass flows (debris avalanches and lahars) can be forecast as a function of distance from source when the approximate flow rate (peak discharge near the source) can be estimated beforehand. The near-source flow rate is primarily a function of initial flow volume, which should be possible to estimate to an order of magnitude on the basis of geologic, geomorphic, and hydrologic factors at a particular volcano. Least-squares best fits to plots of flow-front travel time as a function of distance from source provide predictive second-degree polynomial equations with high coefficients of determination for four broad size classes of flow based on near-source flow rate: extremely large flows (>1 000 000 m3/s), very large flows (10 000–1 000 000 m3/s), large flows (1000–10 000 m3/s), and moderate flows (100–1000 m3/s). A strong nonlinear correlation that exists between initial total flow volume and flow rate for "instantaneously" generated debris flows can be used to estimate near-source flow rates in advance. Differences in geomorphic controlling factors among different flows in the data sets have relatively little effect on the strong nonlinear correlations between travel time and distance from source. Differences in flow type may be important, especially for extremely large flows, but this could not be evaluated here. At a given distance away from a volcano, travel times can vary by approximately an order of magnitude depending on flow rate. The method can provide emergency-management officials a means for estimating time windows for evacuation of communities located in hazard zones downstream from potentially hazardous volcanoes.

High speed radiometric measurements of IED detonation fireballs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spidell, Matthew T.; Gordon, J. Motos; Pitz, Jeremey; Gross, Kevin C.; Perram, Glen P.

2010-04-01

Continuum emission is predominant in fireball spectral phenomena and in some demonstrated cases, fine detail in the temporal evolution of infrared spectral emissions can be used to estimate size and chemical composition of the device. Recent work indicates that a few narrow radiometric bands may reveal forensic information needed for the explosive discrimination and classification problem, representing an essential step in moving from "laboratory" measurements to a rugged, fieldable system. To explore phenomena not observable in previous experiments, a high speed (10μs resolution) radiometer with four channels spanning the infrared spectrum observed the detonation of nine home made explosive (HME) devices in the < 100lb class. Radiometric measurements indicate that the detonation fireball is well approximated as a single temperature blackbody at early time (0 < t <~ 3ms). The effective radius obtained from absolute intensity indicates fireball growth at supersonic velocity during this time. Peak fireball temperatures during this initial detonation range between 3000.3500K. The initial temperature decay with time (t <~ 10ms) can be described by a simple phenomenological model based on radiative cooling. After this rapid decay, temperature exhibits a small, steady increase with time (10 <~ t <~ 50ms) and peaking somewhere between 1000.1500K-likely the result of post-detonation combustion-before subsequent cooling back to ambient conditions . Radius derived from radiometric measurements can be described well (R2 > 0.98) using blast model functional forms, suggesting that energy release could be estimated from single-pixel radiometric detectors. Comparison of radiometer-derived fireball size with FLIR infrared imagery indicate the Planckian intensity size estimates are about a factor of two smaller than the physical extent of the fireball.

Impacts of seasonal and regional variability in biogenic VOC emissions on surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta region, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Situ, S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wang, X. J.

In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emission model (MEGAN v2.1). The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions onmore » surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by *3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou- Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.« less

A simple multi-scale Gaussian smoothing-based strategy for automatic chromatographic peak extraction.

PubMed

Fu, Hai-Yan; Guo, Jun-Wei; Yu, Yong-Jie; Li, He-Dong; Cui, Hua-Peng; Liu, Ping-Ping; Wang, Bing; Wang, Sheng; Lu, Peng

2016-06-24

Peak detection is a critical step in chromatographic data analysis. In the present work, we developed a multi-scale Gaussian smoothing-based strategy for accurate peak extraction. The strategy consisted of three stages: background drift correction, peak detection, and peak filtration. Background drift correction was implemented using a moving window strategy. The new peak detection method is a variant of the system used by the well-known MassSpecWavelet, i.e., chromatographic peaks are found at local maximum values under various smoothing window scales. Therefore, peaks can be detected through the ridge lines of maximum values under these window scales, and signals that are monotonously increased/decreased around the peak position could be treated as part of the peak. Instrumental noise was estimated after peak elimination, and a peak filtration strategy was performed to remove peaks with signal-to-noise ratios smaller than 3. The performance of our method was evaluated using two complex datasets. These datasets include essential oil samples for quality control obtained from gas chromatography and tobacco plant samples for metabolic profiling analysis obtained from gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Results confirmed the reasonability of the developed method. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Properties of Large Amplitude Whistler Mode Waves in the Magnetosphere: Propagation and Relationship with Geomagnetic Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, L. B., III; Cattell, C. A.; Kellogg, P. J.; Wygant, J. R.; Goetz, K.; Breneman, A.; Kersten, K.

2011-01-01

Wepresent resultsof a studyof the characteristicsof very large amplitude whistler mode waves inside the terrestrial magnetosphere at radial distances of less than 15 RE using waveform capture data from the Wind spacecraft. We observed 247 whistler mode waves with at least one electric field component (105/247 had !80 mV/m peak!to!peak amplitudes) and 66 whistler mode waves with at least one search coil magnetic field component (38/66 had !0.8 nT peak!to!peak amplitudes). Wave vectors determined from events with three magnetic field components indicate that 30/46 propagate within 20 of the ambient magnetic field, though some are more oblique (up to "50 ). No relationship was observed between wave normal angle and GSM latitude. 162/247 of the large amplitude whistler mode waves were observed during magnetically active periods (AE > 200 nT). 217 out of 247 total whistler mode waves examined were observed inside the radiation belts. We present a waveform capture with the largest whistler wave magnetic field amplitude (^8 nT peak!to!peak) ever reported in the radiation belts. The estimated Poynting flux magnitude associated with this wave is ^300 mW/m2, roughly four orders of magnitude above estimates from previous satellite measurements. Such large Poynting flux values are consistent with rapid energization of electrons.

Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Beven, Keith; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reynolds, José Eduardo; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2017-07-01

Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Post-event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum-Cunge-Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed high-water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events can be added into the analysis as they become available.

Fitting a defect non-linear model with or without prior, distinguishing nuclear reaction products as an example.

PubMed

Helgesson, P; Sjöstrand, H

2017-11-01

Fitting a parametrized function to data is important for many researchers and scientists. If the model is non-linear and/or defect, it is not trivial to do correctly and to include an adequate uncertainty analysis. This work presents how the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for non-linear generalized least squares fitting can be used with a prior distribution for the parameters and how it can be combined with Gaussian processes to treat model defects. An example, where three peaks in a histogram are to be distinguished, is carefully studied. In particular, the probability r 1 for a nuclear reaction to end up in one out of two overlapping peaks is studied. Synthetic data are used to investigate effects of linearizations and other assumptions. For perfect Gaussian peaks, it is seen that the estimated parameters are distributed close to the truth with good covariance estimates. This assumes that the method is applied correctly; for example, prior knowledge should be implemented using a prior distribution and not by assuming that some parameters are perfectly known (if they are not). It is also important to update the data covariance matrix using the fit if the uncertainties depend on the expected value of the data (e.g., for Poisson counting statistics or relative uncertainties). If a model defect is added to the peaks, such that their shape is unknown, a fit which assumes perfect Gaussian peaks becomes unable to reproduce the data, and the results for r 1 become biased. It is, however, seen that it is possible to treat the model defect with a Gaussian process with a covariance function tailored for the situation, with hyper-parameters determined by leave-one-out cross validation. The resulting estimates for r 1 are virtually unbiased, and the uncertainty estimates agree very well with the underlying uncertainty.

Fitting a defect non-linear model with or without prior, distinguishing nuclear reaction products as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.

2017-11-01

Fitting a parametrized function to data is important for many researchers and scientists. If the model is non-linear and/or defect, it is not trivial to do correctly and to include an adequate uncertainty analysis. This work presents how the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for non-linear generalized least squares fitting can be used with a prior distribution for the parameters and how it can be combined with Gaussian processes to treat model defects. An example, where three peaks in a histogram are to be distinguished, is carefully studied. In particular, the probability r1 for a nuclear reaction to end up in one out of two overlapping peaks is studied. Synthetic data are used to investigate effects of linearizations and other assumptions. For perfect Gaussian peaks, it is seen that the estimated parameters are distributed close to the truth with good covariance estimates. This assumes that the method is applied correctly; for example, prior knowledge should be implemented using a prior distribution and not by assuming that some parameters are perfectly known (if they are not). It is also important to update the data covariance matrix using the fit if the uncertainties depend on the expected value of the data (e.g., for Poisson counting statistics or relative uncertainties). If a model defect is added to the peaks, such that their shape is unknown, a fit which assumes perfect Gaussian peaks becomes unable to reproduce the data, and the results for r1 become biased. It is, however, seen that it is possible to treat the model defect with a Gaussian process with a covariance function tailored for the situation, with hyper-parameters determined by leave-one-out cross validation. The resulting estimates for r1 are virtually unbiased, and the uncertainty estimates agree very well with the underlying uncertainty.

Fast algorithm for spectral processing with application to on-line welding quality assurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirapeix, J.; Cobo, A.; Jaúregui, C.; López-Higuera, J. M.

2006-10-01

A new technique is presented in this paper for the analysis of welding process emission spectra to accurately estimate in real-time the plasma electronic temperature. The estimation of the electronic temperature of the plasma, through the analysis of the emission lines from multiple atomic species, may be used to monitor possible perturbations during the welding process. Unlike traditional techniques, which usually involve peak fitting to Voigt functions using the Levenberg-Marquardt recursive method, sub-pixel algorithms are used to more accurately estimate the central wavelength of the peaks. Three different sub-pixel algorithms will be analysed and compared, and it will be shown that the LPO (linear phase operator) sub-pixel algorithm is a better solution within the proposed system. Experimental tests during TIG-welding using a fibre optic to capture the arc light, together with a low cost CCD-based spectrometer, show that some typical defects associated with perturbations in the electron temperature can be easily detected and identified with this technique. A typical processing time for multiple peak analysis is less than 20 ms running on a conventional PC.

Interpretation of the MEG-MUSIC scan in biomagnetic source localization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mosher, J.C.; Lewis, P.S.; Leahy, R.M.

1993-09-01

MEG-Music is a new approach to MEG source localization. MEG-Music is based on a spatio-temporal source model in which the observed biomagnetic fields are generated by a small number of current dipole sources with fixed positions/orientations and varying strengths. From the spatial covariance matrix of the observed fields, a signal subspace can be identified. The rank of this subspace is equal to the number of elemental sources present. This signal sub-space is used in a projection metric that scans the three dimensional head volume. Given a perfect signal subspace estimate and a perfect forward model, the metric will peak atmore » unity at each dipole location. In practice, the signal subspace estimate is contaminated by noise, which in turn yields MUSIC peaks which are less than unity. Previously we examined the lower bounds on localization error, independent of the choice of localization procedure. In this paper, we analyzed the effects of noise and temporal coherence on the signal subspace estimate and the resulting effects on the MEG-MUSIC peaks.« less

Gray: a ray tracing-based Monte Carlo simulator for PET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freese, David L.; Olcott, Peter D.; Buss, Samuel R.; Levin, Craig S.

2018-05-01

Monte Carlo simulation software plays a critical role in PET system design. Performing complex, repeated Monte Carlo simulations can be computationally prohibitive, as even a single simulation can require a large amount of time and a computing cluster to complete. Here we introduce Gray, a Monte Carlo simulation software for PET systems. Gray exploits ray tracing methods used in the computer graphics community to greatly accelerate simulations of PET systems with complex geometries. We demonstrate the implementation of models for positron range, annihilation acolinearity, photoelectric absorption, Compton scatter, and Rayleigh scatter. For validation, we simulate the GATE PET benchmark, and compare energy, distribution of hits, coincidences, and run time. We show a speedup using Gray, compared to GATE for the same simulation, while demonstrating nearly identical results. We additionally simulate the Siemens Biograph mCT system with both the NEMA NU-2 scatter phantom and sensitivity phantom. We estimate the total sensitivity within % when accounting for differences in peak NECR. We also estimate the peak NECR to be kcps, or within % of published experimental data. The activity concentration of the peak is also estimated within 1.3%.

10 CFR Appendix K to Part 50 - ECCS Evaluation Models

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... hypothetical accident. The modified Baroczy correlation (Baroczy, C. J., “A Systematic Correlation for Two... distribution shapes and peaking factors representing power distributions that may occur over the core lifetime must be studied. The selected combination of power distribution shape and peaking factor should be the...

10 CFR Appendix K to Part 50 - ECCS Evaluation Models

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... hypothetical accident. The modified Baroczy correlation (Baroczy, C. J., “A Systematic Correlation for Two... distribution shapes and peaking factors representing power distributions that may occur over the core lifetime must be studied. The selected combination of power distribution shape and peaking factor should be the...

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull. Uncertainties in streamflow estimates for corresponding AEP are depicted and quantified as two primary forms: quantile (aleatoric [random sampling] uncertainty) and distribution-choice (epistemic [model] uncertainty). Sampling uncertainties of a given distribution are relatively straightforward to compute from analytical or Monte Carlo-based approaches. Distribution-choice uncertainty stems from choices of potentially applicable probability distributions for which divergence among the choices increases as AEP decreases. Conventional goodness-of-fit statistics, such as Cramér-von Mises, and L-moment ratio diagrams are demonstrated in order to hone distribution choice. The results generally show that distribution choice uncertainty is larger than sampling uncertainty for very low AEP values.

Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

2003-12-01

The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

Locomotor loading mechanics in the hindlimbs of tegu lizards (Tupinambis merianae): comparative and evolutionary implications.

PubMed

Sheffield, K Megan; Butcher, Michael T; Shugart, S Katherine; Gander, Jennifer C; Blob, Richard W

2011-08-01

Skeletal elements are usually able to withstand several times their usual load before they yield, and this ratio is known as the bone's safety factor. Limited studies on amphibians and non-avian reptiles have shown that they have much higher limb bone safety factors than birds and mammals. It has been hypothesized that this difference is related to the difference in posture between upright birds and mammals and sprawling ectotherms; however, limb bone loading data from a wider range of sprawling species are needed in order to determine whether the higher safety factors seen in amphibians and non-avian reptiles are ancestral or derived conditions. Tegus (family Teiidae) are an ideal lineage with which to expand sampling of limb bone loading mechanics for sprawling taxa, particularly for lizards, because they are from a different clade than previously sampled iguanas and exhibit different foraging and locomotor habits (actively foraging carnivore versus burst-activity herbivore). We evaluated the mechanics of locomotor loading for the femur of the Argentine black and white tegu (Tupinambus merianae) using three-dimensional measurements of the ground reaction force and hindlimb kinematics, in vivo bone strains and femoral mechanical properties. Peak bending stresses experienced by the femur were low (tensile: 10.4 ± 1.1 MPa; compressive: -17.4 ± 0.9 MPa) and comparable to those in other reptiles, with moderate shear stresses and strains also present. Analyses of peak femoral stresses and strains led to estimated safety factor ranges of 8.8-18.6 in bending and 7.8-17.5 in torsion, both substantially higher than typical for birds and mammals but similar to other sprawling tetrapods. These results broaden the range of reptilian and amphibian taxa in which high femoral safety factors have been evaluated and further indicate a trend for the independent evolution of lower limb bone safety factors in endothermic taxa.

Comparison of hip geometry, strength, and estimated fracture risk in women with anorexia nervosa and overweight/obese women.

PubMed

Bachmann, Katherine Neubecker; Fazeli, Pouneh K; Lawson, Elizabeth A; Russell, Brian M; Riccio, Ariana D; Meenaghan, Erinne; Gerweck, Anu V; Eddy, Kamryn; Holmes, Tara; Goldstein, Mark; Weigel, Thomas; Ebrahimi, Seda; Mickley, Diane; Gleysteen, Suzanne; Bredella, Miriam A; Klibanski, Anne; Miller, Karen K

2014-12-01

Data suggest that anorexia nervosa (AN) and obesity are complicated by elevated fracture risk, but skeletal site-specific data are lacking. Traditional bone mineral density (BMD) measurements are unsatisfactory at both weight extremes. Hip structural analysis (HSA) uses dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry data to estimate hip geometry and femoral strength. Factor of risk (φ) is the ratio of force applied to the hip from a fall with respect to femoral strength; higher values indicate higher hip fracture risk. The objective of the study was to investigate hip fracture risk in AN and overweight/obese women. This was a cross-sectional study. The study was conducted at a Clinical Research Center. PATIENTS included 368 women (aged 19-45 y): 246 AN, 53 overweight/obese, and 69 lean controls. HSA-derived femoral geometry, peak factor of risk for hip fracture, and factor of risk for hip fracture attenuated by trochanteric soft tissue (φ(attenuated)) were measured. Most HSA-derived parameters were impaired in AN and superior in obese/overweight women vs controls at the narrow neck, intertrochanteric, and femoral shaft (P ≤ .03). The φ(attenuated) was highest in AN and lowest in overweight/obese women (P < .0001). Lean mass was associated with superior, and duration of amenorrhea with inferior, HSA-derived parameters and φ(attenuated) (P < .05). Mean φ(attenuated) (P = .036), but not femoral neck BMD or HSA-estimated geometry, was impaired in women who had experienced fragility fractures. Femoral geometry by HSA, hip BMD, and factor of risk for hip fracture attenuated by soft tissue are impaired in AN and superior in obesity, suggesting higher and lower hip fracture risk, respectively. Only attenuated factor of risk was associated with fragility fracture prevalence, suggesting that variability in soft tissue padding may help explain site-specific fracture risk not captured by BMD.

Comparison of Hip Geometry, Strength, and Estimated Fracture Risk in Women With Anorexia Nervosa and Overweight/Obese Women

PubMed Central

Bachmann, Katherine Neubecker; Fazeli, Pouneh K.; Lawson, Elizabeth A.; Russell, Brian M.; Riccio, Ariana D.; Meenaghan, Erinne; Gerweck, Anu V.; Eddy, Kamryn; Holmes, Tara; Goldstein, Mark; Weigel, Thomas; Ebrahimi, Seda; Mickley, Diane; Gleysteen, Suzanne; Bredella, Miriam A.; Klibanski, Anne

2014-01-01

Context: Data suggest that anorexia nervosa (AN) and obesity are complicated by elevated fracture risk, but skeletal site-specific data are lacking. Traditional bone mineral density (BMD) measurements are unsatisfactory at both weight extremes. Hip structural analysis (HSA) uses dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry data to estimate hip geometry and femoral strength. Factor of risk (φ) is the ratio of force applied to the hip from a fall with respect to femoral strength; higher values indicate higher hip fracture risk. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate hip fracture risk in AN and overweight/obese women. Design: This was a cross-sectional study. Setting: The study was conducted at a Clinical Research Center. Patients: Patients included 368 women (aged 19–45 y): 246 AN, 53 overweight/obese, and 69 lean controls. Main Outcome Measures: HSA-derived femoral geometry, peak factor of risk for hip fracture, and factor of risk for hip fracture attenuated by trochanteric soft tissue (φattenuated) were measured. Results: Most HSA-derived parameters were impaired in AN and superior in obese/overweight women vs controls at the narrow neck, intertrochanteric, and femoral shaft (P ≤ .03). The φattenuated was highest in AN and lowest in overweight/obese women (P < .0001). Lean mass was associated with superior, and duration of amenorrhea with inferior, HSA-derived parameters and φattenuated (P < .05). Mean φattenuated (P = .036), but not femoral neck BMD or HSA-estimated geometry, was impaired in women who had experienced fragility fractures. Conclusions: Femoral geometry by HSA, hip BMD, and factor of risk for hip fracture attenuated by soft tissue are impaired in AN and superior in obesity, suggesting higher and lower hip fracture risk, respectively. Only attenuated factor of risk was associated with fragility fracture prevalence, suggesting that variability in soft tissue padding may help explain site-specific fracture risk not captured by BMD. PMID:25062461

The Effects of Walking Speed on Tibiofemoral Loading Estimated Via Musculoskeletal Modeling

PubMed Central

Lerner, Zachary F.; Haight, Derek J.; DeMers, Matthew S.; Board, Wayne J.; Browning, Raymond C.

2015-01-01

Net muscle moments (NMMs) have been used as proxy measures of joint loading, but musculoskeletal models can estimate contact forces within joints. The purpose of this study was to use a musculoskeletal model to estimate tibiofemoral forces and to examine the relationship between NMMs and tibiofemoral forces across walking speeds. We collected kinematic, kinetic, and electromyographic data as ten adult participants walked on a dual-belt force-measuring treadmill at 0.75, 1.25, and 1.50 m/s. We scaled a musculoskeletal model to each participant and used OpenSim to calculate the NMMs and muscle forces through inverse dynamics and weighted static optimization, respectively. We determined tibiofemoral forces from the vector sum of intersegmental and muscle forces crossing the knee. Estimated tibiofemoral forces increased with walking speed. Peak early-stance compressive tibiofemoral forces increased 52% as walking speed increased from 0.75 to 1.50 m/s, whereas peak knee extension NMMs increased by 168%. During late stance, peak compressive tibiofemoral forces increased by 18% as speed increased. Although compressive loads at the knee did not increase in direct proportion to NMMs, faster walking resulted in greater compressive forces during weight acceptance and increased compressive and anterior/posterior tibiofemoral loading rates in addition to a greater abduction NMM. PMID:23878264

Nonlinear, discrete flood event models, 1. Bayesian estimation of parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Bryson C.; Townley, Lloyd R.

1988-05-01

In this paper (Part 1), a Bayesian procedure for parameter estimation is applied to discrete flood event models. The essence of the procedure is the minimisation of a sum of squares function for models in which the computed peak discharge is nonlinear in terms of the parameters. This objective function is dependent on the observed and computed peak discharges for several storms on the catchment, information on the structure of observation error, and prior information on parameter values. The posterior covariance matrix gives a measure of the precision of the estimated parameters. The procedure is demonstrated using rainfall and runoff data from seven Australian catchments. It is concluded that the procedure is a powerful alternative to conventional parameter estimation techniques in situations where a number of floods are available for parameter estimation. Parts 2 and 3 will discuss the application of statistical nonlinearity measures and prediction uncertainty analysis to calibrated flood models. Bates (this volume) and Bates and Townley (this volume).

Quantifying the time lag between organic matter production and export in the surface ocean: Implications for estimates of export efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stange, P.; Bach, L. T.; Le Moigne, F. A. C.; Taucher, J.; Boxhammer, T.; Riebesell, U.

2017-01-01

The ocean's potential to export carbon to depth partly depends on the fraction of primary production (PP) sinking out of the euphotic zone (i.e., the e-ratio). Measurements of PP and export flux are often performed simultaneously in the field, although there is a temporal delay between those parameters. Thus, resulting e-ratio estimates often incorrectly assume an instantaneous downward export of PP to export flux. Evaluating results from four mesocosm studies, we find that peaks in organic matter sedimentation lag chlorophyll a peaks by 2 to 15 days. We discuss the implications of these time lags (TLs) for current e-ratio estimates and evaluate potential controls of TL. Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between TL and the duration of chlorophyll a buildup, indicating a dependency of TL on plankton food web dynamics. This study is one step further toward time-corrected e-ratio estimates.

Thunderstorm vertical velocities and mass flux estimated from satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Fenn, D. D.

1979-01-01

Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of five minutes between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.5/ms for 19 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2x10 to the 11th power/gs is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (w bar=4.6/ms) and those with no such reports (2.5/ms). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed w value of 7.8/ms the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50/ms.

En route noise levels from propfan test assessment airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garber, Donald P.; Willshire, William L., Jr.

1994-01-01

The en route noise test was designed to characterize propagation of propfan noise from cruise altitudes to the ground. In-flight measurements of propfan source levels and directional patterns were made by a chase plane flying in formation with the propfan test assessment (PTA) airplane. Ground noise measurements were taken during repeated flights over a distributed microphone array. The microphone array on the ground was used to provide ensemble-averaged estimates of mean flyover noise levels, establish confidence limits for those means, and measure propagation-induced noise variability. Even for identical nominal cruise conditions, peak sound levels for individual overflights varied substantially about the average, particularly when overflights were performed on different days. Large day-to-day variations in peak level measurements appeared to be caused by large day-to-day differences in propagation conditions and tended to obscure small variations arising from operating conditions. A parametric evaluation of the sensitivity of this prediction method to weather measurement and source level uncertainties was also performed. In general, predictions showed good agreement with measurements. However, the method was unable to predict short-term variability of ensemble-averaged data within individual overflights. Although variations in absorption appear to be the dominant factor in variations of peak sound levels recorded on the ground, accurate predictions of those levels require that a complete description of operational conditions be taken into account. The comprehensive and integrated methods presented in this paper have adequately predicted ground-measured sound levels. On average, peak sound levels were predicted within 3 dB for each of the three different cruise conditions.

Relationship between blood viscosity and infarct size in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Cecchi, Emanuele; Liotta, Agatina Alessandriello; Gori, Anna Maria; Valente, Serafina; Giglioli, Cristina; Lazzeri, Chiara; Sofi, Francesco; Gensini, Gian Franco; Abbate, Rosanna; Mannini, Lucia

2009-05-15

Previous studies explored the association between hemorheological alterations and acute myocardial infarction, pointing out the role of hematological components on microvascular flow. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between blood viscosity and infarct size, estimated by creatine kinase (CK) peak activity and cardiac Troponin I (cTnI) peak concentration in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The study population included 197 patients with diagnosis of STEMI undergoing PCI. Hemorheological studies were performed by assessing whole blood viscosity (measured at shear rates of 0.512 s(-1) and 94.5 s(-1)) and plasma viscosity using the Rotational Viscosimeter LS 30 and erythrocyte deformability index by Myrenne filtrometer. Significant correlations between CK peak activity, cTnI peak concentration, left ventricular ejection fraction and hemorheological variables were observed. At linear regression analysis (adjusted for age, gender, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, renal dysfunction, timeliness of reperfusion, pre-PCI TIMI flow, infarct location, multivessel disease and previous coronary artery disease) leukocytes and whole blood viscosity at 0.512 s(-1) and 94.5 s(-1) were independently and positively associated with infarct size. These results demonstrate a significant and independent association between hemorheology and infarct size in STEMI patients after PCI suggesting that blood viscosity, in a condition of low flow, might worsen myocardial perfusion leading to an increased infarct size. The measurement of whole blood viscosity in STEMI patients could help to identify those who may benefit from new therapeutic strategies.

Primary and secondary contributions to aerosol light scattering and absorption in Mexico City during the MILAGRO 2006 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paredes-Miranda, G.; Arnott, W. P.; Jimenez, J. L.; Aiken, A. C.; Gaffney, J. S.; Marley, N. A.

2009-06-01

A photoacoustic spectrometer, a nephelometer, an aethalometer, and an aerosol mass spectrometer were used to measure at ground level real-time aerosol light absorption, scattering, and chemistry at an urban site located in North East Mexico City (Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexican Petroleum Institute, denoted by IMP), as part of the Megacity Impact on Regional and Global Environments field experiment, MILAGRO, in March 2006. Photoacoustic and reciprocal nephelometer measurements at 532 nm accomplished with a single instrument compare favorably with conventional measurements made with an aethalometer and a TSI nephelometer. The diurnally averaged single scattering albedo at 532 nm was found to vary from 0.60 to 0.85 with the peak value at midday and the minimum value at 07:00 a.m. local time, indicating that the Mexico City plume is likely to have a net warming effect on local climate. The peak value is associated with strong photochemical generation of secondary aerosol. It is estimated that the photochemical production of secondary aerosol (inorganic and organic) is approximately 75% of the aerosol mass concentration and light scattering in association with the peak single scattering albedo. A strong correlation of aerosol scattering at 532 nm and total aerosol mass concentration was found, and an average mass scattering efficiency factor of 3.8 m2/g was determined. Comparisons of photoacoustic and aethalometer light absorption with oxygenated organic aerosol concentration (OOA) indicate a very small systematic bias of the filter based measurement associated with OOA and the peak aerosol single scattering albedo.

Primary and secondary contributions to aerosol light scattering and absorption in Mexico City during the MILAGRO 2006 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paredes-Miranda, G.; Arnott, W. P.; Jimenez, J. L.; Aiken, A. C.; Gaffney, J. S.; Marley, N. A.

2008-09-01

A photoacoustic spectrometer, a nephelometer, an aetholemeter, and an aerosol mass spectrometer were used to measure at ground level real-time aerosol light absorption, scattering, and chemistry at an urban site located in north east Mexico City (Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexican Petroleum Institute, denoted by IMP), as part of the Megacity Impact on Regional and Global Environments field experiment, MILAGRO, in March 2006. Photoacoustic and reciprocal nephelometer measurements at 532 nm accomplished with a single instrument compare favorably with conventional measurements made with an aethelometer and a TSI nephelometer. The diurnally averaged single scattering albedo at 532 nm was found to vary from 0.60 to 0.85 with the peak value at midday and the minimum value at 7 a.m. local time, indicating that the Mexico City plume is likely to have a net warming effect on local climate. The peak value is associated with strong photochemical generation of secondary aerosol. It is estimated that the same-day photochemical production of secondary aerosol (inorganic and organic) is approximately 40 percent of the aerosol mass concentration and light scattering in association with the peak single scattering albedo. A strong correlation of aerosol scattering at 532 nm and total aerosol mass concentration was found, and an average mass scattering efficiency factor of 3.8 m2/g was determined. Comparisons of photoacoustic and aethalometer light absorption with oxygenated organic aerosol concentration (OOA) indicate a very small systematic bias of the filter based measurement associated with OOA and the peak aerosol single scattering albedo.

Cardiorespiratory fitness of a Brazilian regional sample distributed in different tables.

PubMed

Belli, Karlyse Claudino; Callegaro, Carine C; Calegaro, Carine; Richter, Cleusa Maria; Klafke, Jonatas Zeni; Stein, Ricardo; Viecili, Paulo Ricardo Nazario

2012-09-01

Most classification tables of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) used in clinical practice are international and have not been validated for the Brazilian population. That can result in important discrepancies when that classification is extrapolated to our population. To assess the use of major CRF tables available in a Brazilian population sample of the Central High Plan of the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS). This study assessed the retrospective data of 2,930 individuals, living in 36 cities of the Central High Plan of the state of RS, and considered the following: presence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease and estimated maximum oxygen consumption (VO2peak) values obtained through exercise test with Bruce protocol. To classify CRF, the individuals were distributed according to sex, inserted in their respective age groups in the Cooper, American Heart Association (AHA) and Universidade Federal de São Paulo (Unifesp) tables, and classified according to their VO2peak. Women had lower VO2peak values as compared with those of men (23.5 ± 8.5 vs. 31.7 ± 10.8 mL.kg-1.min-1, p < 0.001). Considering both sexes, VO2peak showed an inverse and moderate correlation with age (R = -0.48, p < 0.001). An important discrepancy in the CRF classification levels was observed between the tables, ranging from 49% (Cooper x AHA) to 75% (Unifesp x AHA). Our findings indicate important discrepancy in the CRF classification levels of the tables assessed. Future studies could assess whether international tables could be used for the Brazilian population and populations of different regions of Brazil.

Coordination number constraint models for hydrogenated amorphous Si deposited by catalytic chemical vapour deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawahara, Toshio; Tabuchi, Norikazu; Arai, Takashi; Sato, Yoshikazu; Morimoto, Jun; Matsumura, Hideki

2005-02-01

We measured structure factors of hydrogenated amorphous Si by x-ray diffraction and analysed the obtained structures using a reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) technique. A small shoulder in the measured structure factor S(Q) was observed on the larger Q side of the first peak. The RMC results with an unconstrained model did not clearly show the small shoulder. Adding constraints for coordination numbers 2 and 3, the small shoulder was reproduced and the agreement with the experimental data became better. The ratio of the constrained coordination numbers was consistent with the ratio of Si-H and Si-H2 bonds which was estimated by the Fourier transformed infrared spectra of the same sample. This shoulder and the oscillation of the corresponding pair distribution function g(r) at large r seem to be related to the low randomness of cat-CVD deposited a-Si:H.

Analysis on factors affecting household customers decision in using electricity at peak time and its correlation towards saving electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasasa, Linus; Marbun, Parlin; Mariza, Ita

2015-09-01

The purpose of this paper is to study and analyse the factors affecting customer decisions in using electricity at peak-load hours (between 17.00 to 22.00 WIB) and their behaviors towards electricity conservation in Indonesian household. The underlying rationale is to influence a reduction in energy consumption by stimulating energy saving behaviors, thereby reducing the impact of energy use on the environment. How is the correlation between the decisions in using electricity during peak load hours with the household customer's behavior towards saving electricity? The primary data is obtained by distributing questionnaires to customers of PT. PLN Jakarta Raya and Tangerang Distribution from Household segment. The data is analysed using the Structural Equation Model (SEM) and AMOS Software. The research is finding that all factors (Personal, Social, PLN Services, Psychological, and Cultural) are positively influence customer decision in using electricity at peak load hours. There is a correlation between the decisions in using electricity during peak load hours with the household customer's behavior towards saving electricity.

Peak-flow frequency estimates based on data through water year 2001 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Parrett, Charles

2008-01-01

Numerous users, including the South Dakota Department of Transportation, have continuing needs for peak-flow information for the design of highway infrastructure and many other purposes. This report documents results from a cooperative study between the South Dakota Department of Transportation and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide an update of peak-flow frequency estimates for South Dakota. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are reported for 272 streamflow-gaging stations, which include most gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of systematic peak-flow records through water year 2001. Recommended procedures described in Bulletin 17B were used as primary guidelines for developing peak-flow frequency estimates. The computer program PEAKFQ developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to run the frequency analyses. Flood frequencies for all stations were initially analyzed by using standard Bulletin 17B default procedures for fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. The resulting preliminary frequency curves were then plotted on a log-probability scale, and fits of the curves with systematic data were evaluated. In many cases, results of the default Bulletin 17B analyses were determined to be satisfactory. In other cases, however, the results could be improved by using various alternative procedures for frequency analysis. Alternative procedures for some stations included adjustments to skew coefficients or use of user-defined low-outlier criteria. Peak-flow records for many gaging stations are strongly influenced by low- or zero-flow values. This situation often results in a frequency curve that plots substantially above the systematic record data points at the upper end of the frequency curve. Adjustments to low-outlier criteria reduced the influence of very small peak flows and generally focused the analyses on the upper parts of the frequency curves (10- to 500-year recurrence intervals). The most common alternative procedures involved several different methods to extend systematic records, which was done primarily to address biases resulting from nonrepresentative climatic conditions during several specific periods of record and to reduce inconsistencies among multiple gaging stations along common stream channels with different periods of record. In some cases, records for proximal stations could be combined directly. In other cases, the two-station comparison procedure recommended in Bulletin 17B was used to adjust the mean and standard deviation of the logs of the systematic data for a target station on the basis of correlation with concurrent records from a nearby long-term index station. In some other cases, a 'mixed-station procedure' was used to adjust the log-distributional parameters for a target station, on the basis of correlation with one or more index stations, for the purpose of fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. Historical adjustment procedures were applied to peak-flow frequency analyses for 17 South Dakota gaging stations. A historical adjustment period extending back to 1881 (121 years) was used for 12 gaging stations in the James and Big Sioux River Basins, and various other adjustment periods were used for additional stations. Large peak flows that occurred in 1969 and 1997 accounted for 13 of the 17 historical adjustments. Other years for which historical peak flows were used include 1957, 1962, 1992, and 2001. A regional mixed-population analysis was developed to address complications associated with many high outliers for the Black Hills region. This analysis included definition of two populations of flood events. The population of flood events that composes the main body of peak flows for a given station is considered the 'ordinary-peaks population,' and the population of unusually large peak flows that plot substantially above the main body of peak flows on log-probability scale is co

Verifying the UK agricultural N2O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Meneguz, E.; Skiba, U. M.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Cardenas, L. M.; Arnold, T.; Manning, A.; Dragosits, U.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential 300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates, in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and an alternative approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the alternative approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E. England; Ridge Hill, W. England; Mace Head, W. Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to correspond with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of land spreading of manures and fertiliser application. The model run using the default IPCC methodology was found to correspond with the observed data more closely than the alternative approach.

Verifying the UK N_{2}O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, Ed; Meneguz, Elena; Skiba, Ute; Misselbrook, Tom; Cardenas, Laura; Arnold, Tim; Manning, Alistair; Dragosits, Ulli

2016-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential ˜300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates (e.g. agricultural management data), in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and a revised approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the revised approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (www.ghgplatform.org.uk, Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E England; Ridge Hill, W England; Mace Head, W Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to fit with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of fertiliser application and land spreading of manures. The model run using the 'experimental' approach was found to give a closer agreement with the observed data.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study.

PubMed

Degenhardt, Louisa; Ferrari, Alize J; Calabria, Bianca; Hall, Wayne D; Norman, Rosana E; McGrath, John; Flaxman, Abraham D; Engell, Rebecca E; Freedman, Greg D; Whiteford, Harvey A; Vos, Theo

2013-01-01

Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

The Global Epidemiology and Contribution of Cannabis Use and Dependence to the Global Burden of Disease: Results from the GBD 2010 Study

PubMed Central

Degenhardt, Louisa; Ferrari, Alize J.; Calabria, Bianca; Hall, Wayne D.; Norman, Rosana E.; McGrath, John; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Engell, Rebecca E.; Freedman, Greg D.; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Vos, Theo

2013-01-01

Aims Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden. PMID:24204649

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Padua Fire of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2004-01-01

Results of a present preliminary assessment of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from basins burned by the Padua Fire of October 2003 in southern California in response to 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year recurrence, 1-hour duration rain storms are presented. The resulting probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients, and storm rainfall. The resulting peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Padua Fire range between 0 and 99% and estimates of debris-flow peak discharges range between 1211 and 6,096 ft3/s (34 to 173 m3/s). These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

A specific prediction equation is necessary to estimate peak oxygen uptake in obese patients with metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Debeaumont, D; Tardif, C; Folope, V; Castres, I; Lemaitre, F; Tourny, C; Dechelotte, P; Thill, C; Darmon, A; Coquart, J B

2016-06-01

The aims were to: (1) compare peak oxygen uptake ([Formula: see text]peak) predicted from four standard equations to actual [Formula: see text]peak measured from a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) in obese patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS), and (2) develop a new equation to accurately estimate [Formula: see text]peak in obese women with MetS. Seventy-five obese patients with MetS performed a CPET. Anthropometric data were also collected for each participant. [Formula: see text]peak was predicted from four prediction equations (from Riddle et al., Hansen et al., Wasserman et al. or Gläser et al.) and then compared with the actual [Formula: see text]peak measured during the CPET. The accuracy of the predictions was determined with the Bland-Altman method. When accuracy was low, a new prediction equation including anthropometric variables was proposed. [Formula: see text]peak predicted from the equation of Wasserman et al. was not significantly different from actual [Formula: see text]peak in women. Moreover, a significant correlation was found between the predicted and actual values (p < 0.001, r = 0.69). In men, no significant difference was noted between actual [Formula: see text]peak and [Formula: see text]peak predicted from the prediction equation of Gläser et al., and these two values were also correlated (p = 0.03, r = 0.44). However, the LoA95% was wide, whatever the prediction equation or gender. Regression analysis suggested a new prediction equation derived from age and height for obese women with MetS. The methods of Wasserman et al. and Gläser et al. are valid to predict [Formula: see text]peak in obese women and men with MetS, respectively. However, the accuracy of the predictions was low for both methods. Consequently, a new prediction equation including age and height was developed for obese women with MetS. However, new prediction equation remains to develop in obese men with MetS.

Utilizing an Energy Management System with Distributed Resources to Manage Critical Loads and Reduce Energy Costs

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

peak shaving, conducting power factor correction, matching critical load to most efficient distributed resource, and islanding a system during...photovoltaic arrays during islanding, and power factor correction, the implementation of the ESS by itself is likely to prove cost prohibitive. The DOD...These functions include peak shaving, conducting power factor correction, matching critical load to most efficient distributed resource, and islanding a

Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2014-01-01

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B17B-GB and EMA-MGB RPD-boxplot results showed that the median RPDs across all streamgaging stations for the 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs, computed using station skew, were approximately zero. As the AEP flow estimates decreased (that is, from 10 to 0.2 percent AEP) the variability in the RPDs increased, indicating that the AEP flow estimate was greater for EMA-MGB when compared to B17B-GB. There was only one RPD greater than 100 percent for the 10- and 1-percent AEP estimates, whereas 19 RPDs exceeded 100 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. At streamgaging stations with low-outlier data, historical peak-flow data, or both, RPDs ranged from −84 to 262 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP flow estimate. When streamgaging stations were separated by the presence of historical peak-flow data (that is, no low outliers or censored peaks) or by low outlier peak-flow data (no historical data), the results showed that RPD variability was greatest for the 0.2-AEP flow estimates, indicating that the treatment of historical and (or) low-outlier data was different between methods and that method differences were most influential when estimating the less probable AEP flows (1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent). When regional skew information was weighted with the station skew, B17B-GB estimates were generally higher than the EMA-MGB estimates for any given AEP. This was related to the different regional skews and mean square error used in the weighting procedure for each flood frequency analysis. The B17B-GB weighted skew analysis used a more positive regional skew determined in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433 (Thomas and others, 1997), while the EMA-MGB analysis used a more negative regional skew with a lower mean square error determined from a Bayesian generalized least squares analysis. Regional groupings of streamgaging stations reflected differences in physiographic and climatic characteristics. Potentially influential low flows (PILFs) were more prevalent in arid regions of the State, and generally AEP flows were larger with EMA-MGB than with B17B-GB for gaging stations with PILFs. In most cases EMA-MGB curves would fit the largest floods more accurately than B17B-GB. In areas of the State with more baseflow, such as along the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains, streamgaging stations generally had fewer PILFs and more positive skews, causing estimated AEP flows to be larger with B17B-GB than with EMA-MGB. The effect of including regional skew was similar for all regions, and the observed pattern was increasingly greater B17B-GB flows (more negative RPDs) with each decreasing AEP quantile. A variation on a goodness-of-fit test statistic was used to describe each method’s ability to fit the largest floods. The mean absolute percent difference between the measured peak flows and the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3)-estimated flows, for each method, was averaged over the 90th, 75th, and 50th percentiles of peak-flow data at each site. In most percentile subsets, EMA-MGB on average had smaller differences (1 to 3 percent) between the observed and fitted value, suggesting that the EMA-MGB-LP3 distribution is fitting the observed peak-flow data more precisely than B17B-GB. The smallest EMA-MGB percent differences occurred for the greatest 10 percent (90th percentile) of the peak-flow data. When stations were analyzed by USGS NWIS peak flow qualification code groups, the stations with historical peak flows and no low outliers had average percent differences as high as 11 percent greater for B17B-GB, indicating that EMA-MGB utilized the historical information to fit the largest observed floods more accurately. A resampling procedure was used in which 1,000 random subsamples were drawn, each comprising one-half of the observed data. An LP3 distribution was fit to each subsample using B17B-GB and EMA-MGB methods, and the predicted 1-percent AEP flows were compared to those generated from distributions fit to the entire dataset. With station skew, the two methods were similar in the median percent difference, but with weighted skew EMA-MGB estimates were generally better. At two gages where B17B-GB appeared to perform better, a large number of peak flows were deemed to be PILFs by the MGB test, although they did not appear to depart significantly from the trend of the data (step or dogleg appearance). At two gages where EMA-MGB performed better, the MGB identified several PILFs that were affecting the fitted distribution of the B17B-GB method. Monte Carlo simulations were run for the LP3 distribution using different skews and with different assumptions about the expected number of historical peaks. The primary benefit of running Monte Carlo simulations is that the underlying distribution statistics are known, meaning that the true 1-percent AEP is known. The results showed that EMA-MGB performed as well or better in situations where the LP3 distribution had a zero or positive skew and historical information. When the skew for the LP3 distribution was negative, EMA-MGB performed significantly better than B17B-GB and EMA-MGB estimates were less biased by more closely estimating the true 1-percent AEP for 1, 2, and 10 historical flood scenarios.

Peak height of OH airglow derived from simultaneous observations a Fabry-Perot interferometer and a meteor radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tao; Zuo, Xiaomin; Xia, Chunliang; Li, Mingyuan; Huang, Cong; Mao, Tian; Zhang, Xiaoxin; Zhao, Biqiang; Liu, Libo

2017-04-01

A new method for estimating daily averaged peak height of the OH airglow layer from a ground-based meteor radar (MR) and a Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) is presented. The first results are derived from 4 year simultaneous measurements of winds by a MR and a FPI at two adjacent stations over center China and are compared with observations from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument. The OH airglow peak heights, which are derived by using correlation analysis between winds of the FPI and MR, are found to generally peak at an altitude of 87 km and frequently varied between 80 km and 90 km day to day. In comparison with SABER OH 1.6 μm observations, reasonable similarity of airglow peak heights is found, and rapid day-to-day variations are also pronounced. Lomb-Scargle analysis is used to determine cycles of temporal variations of airglow peak heights, and there are obvious periodic variations both in our airglow peak heights and in the satellite observations. In addition to the annual, semiannual, monthly, and three monthly variations, the shorter time variations, e.g., day-to-day and several days' variations, are also conspicuous. The day-to-day variations of airglow height obviously could reduce observation accuracy and lead to some deviations in FPI measurements. These FPI wind deviations arising from airglow height variations are also estimated to be about 3-5 m/s from 2011 to 2015, with strong positive correlation with airglow peak height variation. More attention should be paid to the wind deviations associated with airglow height variation when using and interpreting winds measured by FPI.

Building application of solar energy. Study no. 4: Scenarios for the utilization of solar energy in southern California buildings, change 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, E. S.; French, R. L.; Hirshberg, A. S.

1976-01-01

Plausible future market scenarios for solar heating and cooling systems into buildings in the area served by the Southern California Edison Company. A range of plausible estimates for the number of solar systems which might be installed and the electrical energy which might be displaced by energy from these systems are provided. The effect on peak electrical load was not explicitly calculated but preliminary conclusions concerning peak load can be inferred from the estimates presented. Two markets are investigated: the single family market and the large power commercial market.

Forecasting peaks of seasonal influenza epidemics.

PubMed

Nsoesie, Elaine; Mararthe, Madhav; Brownstein, John

2013-06-21

We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based estimates of influenza activity from Google Flu Trends for 2004-2005, 2007-2008 and 2012-2013 flu seasons. In some cases, the peak could be forecasted 5-6 weeks ahead. This study adds to existing resources for influenza forecasting and the proposed method can be used in conjunction with other approaches in an ensemble framework.

Computation of full energy peak efficiency for nuclear power plant radioactive plume using remote scintillation gamma-ray spectrometry.

PubMed

Grozdov, D S; Kolotov, V P; Lavrukhin, Yu E

2016-04-01

A method of full energy peak efficiency estimation in the space around scintillation detector, including the presence of a collimator, has been developed. It is based on a mathematical convolution of the experimental results with the following data extrapolation. The efficiency data showed the average uncertainty less than 10%. Software to calculate integral efficiency for nuclear power plant plume was elaborated. The paper also provides results of nuclear power plant plume height estimation by analysis of the spectral data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic Development and Validation of a Thin-Layer Densitometric Bioanalytical Method for Estimation of Mangiferin Employing Analytical Quality by Design (AQbD) Approach

PubMed Central

Khurana, Rajneet Kaur; Rao, Satish; Beg, Sarwar; Katare, O.P.; Singh, Bhupinder

2016-01-01

The present work aims at the systematic development of a simple, rapid and highly sensitive densitometry-based thin-layer chromatographic method for the quantification of mangiferin in bioanalytical samples. Initially, the quality target method profile was defined and critical analytical attributes (CAAs) earmarked, namely, retardation factor (Rf), peak height, capacity factor, theoretical plates and separation number. Face-centered cubic design was selected for optimization of volume loaded and plate dimensions as the critical method parameters selected from screening studies employing D-optimal and Plackett–Burman design studies, followed by evaluating their effect on the CAAs. The mobile phase containing a mixture of ethyl acetate : acetic acid : formic acid : water in a 7 : 1 : 1 : 1 (v/v/v/v) ratio was finally selected as the optimized solvent for apt chromatographic separation of mangiferin at 262 nm with Rf 0.68 ± 0.02 and all other parameters within the acceptance limits. Method validation studies revealed high linearity in the concentration range of 50–800 ng/band for mangiferin. The developed method showed high accuracy, precision, ruggedness, robustness, specificity, sensitivity, selectivity and recovery. In a nutshell, the bioanalytical method for analysis of mangiferin in plasma revealed the presence of well-resolved peaks and high recovery of mangiferin. PMID:26912808

Distribution pattern of reptiles along an eastern Himalayan elevation gradient, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chettri, Basundhara; Bhupathy, Subramanian; Acharya, Bhoj Kumar

2010-01-01

We examined the spatial distribution pattern of reptiles in an eastern Himalayan elevation gradient. The factors governing the distribution have been assessed with emphasis on the mid-domain effect. We surveyed reptiles along the elevation gradient (300-4800 m) of the Teesta valley in Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya, India using time constrained visual encounter survey. A total of 42 species of reptiles were observed during the study, and the species richness peaked at 500-1000 m with no species beyond 3000 m. The observed pattern was consistent with estimated richness, both showing significant negative relation with elevation. Lizards showed a linear decline with elevation, whereas snakes followed a non-linear relation with peak at 500-1000 m. Observed species richness deviated significantly from that predicted by a mid-domain null model. The regression between empirical and simulated richness was not significant for total reptiles as well as lizards and snakes separately. Most species distributed in the high elevation extended towards lower elevation, but low elevation species (around 50%) were restricted below 1000 m. Deviation of empirical from predicted richness indicates that the distributions of reptile species were least governed by geographic hard boundaries. Climatic factors especially temperature explained much variation of reptiles along the Himalayan elevation gradient. Most reptiles were narrowly distributed, especially those found in low elevation indicating the importance of tropical low-land forests in the conservation of reptiles in Eastern Himalayas.

Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.; Bergman, D.L.

1985-01-01

Statewide regression relations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge of floods for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years. The independent variables required for estimating flood discharge for rural streams are contributing drainage area and mean annual precipitation. Main-channel slope, a variable used in previous reports, was found to contribute very little to the accuracy of the relations and was not used. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,500 square miles that are not significantly affected by regulation from manmade works. These relations are presented in graphical form for easy application. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for rural unregulated streams are discussed. Basin and climatic characteristics, log-Pearson Type III statistics and the flood-frequency relations for 226 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are presented. Regression relations are investigated for estimating flood magnitude and frequency for watersheds affected by regulation from small FRS (floodwater retarding structures) built by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service in their watershed protection and flood prevention program. Gaging-station data from nine FRS regulated sites in Oklahoma and one FRS regulated site in Kansas are used. For sites regulated by FRS, an adjustment of the statewide rural regression relations can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency. The statewide regression equations are used by substituting the drainage area below the FRS, or drainage area that represents the percent of the basin unregulated, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain flood-frequency estimates. Flood-frequency curves and flow-duration curves are presented for five gaged sites to illustrate the effects of FRS regulation on peak discharge.

Estimated and measured traveltime for the Crow River watershed, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arntson, Allan D.

2007-01-01

A time-of-travel study involving a luminescent dye was done on the Crow River in Minnesota from Rockford to the confluence with the Mississippi River at Dayton on July 11, 2006, at a streamflow of 293 cubic feet per second at Rockford. Dye was injected in the Crow River at Rockford, and traveltime and concentrations were measured at three sampling locations downstream: at the Hanover historic bridge in Hanover, at County Road 116 near St. Michael, and at County Road 12 in Dayton. The results of the measured traveltimes were compared to estimated traveltimes from a previous study of the Crow River and six other rivers in the Upper Mississippi River basin in 2003. Regression equations based on watershed characteristics of drainage area, river slope, mean-annual streamflow, and instantaneous streamflow at the time of measurement from more than 900 stream segments across the Nation were used to estimate traveltimes. Traveltimes were estimated and measured for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge of tracer-response curves. Estimated traveltimes for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge at Dayton were 25.3, 28.4, and 35.6 hours, respectively. Measured traveltimes for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge at Dayton were 33.2, 38.2, and 49.2 hours, respectively, for the 22.4-mile reach. Although traveltimes for the Crow and the Sauk Rivers were underestimated by use of the regression equations, the regression estimates were close enough to measured values to be considered satisfactory; hence, this estimating technique should be applicable in other source-water planning efforts in and near the study area.

Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

2011-01-01

Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

Rain core structure statistics derived from radar and disdrometer measurements in the mid-Atlantic coast of the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldhirsh, Julius; Musiani, Bert H.

1989-01-01

During a period spanning more than 5 years, low elevation radar measurements of rain were systematically obtained in the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. Drop size distribution measurements with a disdrometer were also acquired on the same rain days. The drop size data were utilized to convert the radar reflectivity factors to estimated rain rates for the respective rain days of operation. Applying high level algorithms to the rain data, core values of rain intensities were identified (peak rain rates), and families of rain rate isopleths analyzed. In particular, equicircle diameters of the family of isopleths enveloping peak rain intensities were statistically characterized. The presented results represents the analysis of two rain days, 12 radar scans, corresponding to 430 culled rain rate isopleths from an available data base of 22,000 contours, approximately 100 scans encompassing 17 rain days. The results presented show trends of the average rain rate vs. contour scale dimensions, and cumulative distributions of rain cell dimensions which belong to core families of precipitation.

A hydrodynamic treatment of the tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cen, Renyue; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

1993-01-01

A standard hydrodynamic code coupled with a particle-mesh code is used to compute the evolution of a tilted cold dark matter (TCDM) model containing both baryonic matter and dark matter. Six baryonic species are followed, with allowance for both collisional and radiative ionization in every cell. The mean final Zel'dovich-Sunyaev y parameter is estimated to be (5.4 +/- 2.7) x 10 exp -7, below currently attainable observations, with an rms fluctuation of about (6.0 +/- 3.0) x 10 exp -7 on arcmin scales. The rate of galaxy formation peaks at a relatively late epoch (z is about 0.5). In the case of mass function, the smallest objects are stabilized against collapse by thermal energy: the mass-weighted mass spectrum peaks in the vicinity of 10 exp 9.1 solar masses, with a reasonable fit to the Schechter luminosity function if the baryon mass to blue light ratio is about 4. It is shown that a bias factor of 2 required for the model to be consistent with COBE DMR signals is probably a natural outcome in the present multiple component simulations.

Compositional dependence of magnetic anisotropy in chemically synthesized Co3- x Fe x O4 (0 ≤ x ≤ 2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Kensuke; Yamada, Keisuke; Shima, Mutsuhiro

2018-01-01

Magnetic anisotropy of Co3- x Fe x O4 (CFO, 0 ≤ x ≤ 2) thin-film and powder samples prepared by a sol-gel method has been investigated as a function of Fe composition x. Structural analyses by X-ray diffraction show that CFO powder samples exhibit diffraction peaks associated with the spinel structure when x < 2, while CFO thin-film samples with thickness of 130-510 nm yield the peaks when 0 ≤ x ≤ 2. CFO thin-film samples are highly (111)-oriented with the Lotgering factor greater than 0.9 when 0.6 ≤ x ≤ 1.3. The magnetic anisotropy constant K 1 of CFO powder samples estimated from their room-temperature hysteresis loops yields a minimum when x = 0.9. Relatively large in-plane magnetic anisotropy (K eff = 5.7 × 105 erg/cm3) is observed for the CFO thin-film sample when x = 1.3. With increasing x, the magnetic easy axis of the spinel CFO changes from 〈111〉 to 〈100〉 when x = 0.9.

Field emission properties of a DWCNT bundle and a single MWCNT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujishige, Masatsugu; Wongwiriyapan, Winadda; Muramatsu, Hiroyuki; Takeuchi, Kenji; Arai, Susumu

2018-02-01

The field emission properties of a bundle of double-walled carbon nanotubes (DWCNTs) and a single multiwalled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) were investigated. A DWCNT bundle or a single MWCNT was attached to the head of sharpened tip of tungsten by electrophoresis; the tungsten tip was dipped into a drop of a carbon nanotube/1,2-dichloroethane suspension on a stainless plate, and a high-frequency AC voltage (20 V peak to peak with a frequency of 15 MHz) was applied between the tungsten tip and the stainless steel plate. The turn-on fields of the DWCNT and MWCNT tips for 1 nA/cm2 were 0.05 and 0.48 V/μm, respectively. From the Fowler-Nordheim plots, the field enhancement factor (β) of the tips was estimated to be 109,600 (DWCNT) and 6780 (MWCNT). The present DWCNT emitter is characterized by a very small turn-on field and large β. The field emission performance is discussed in terms of the sizes of the bundle of DWCNTs and a single MWCNT.

Risk Factors for Extended Duration and Timing of Peak Severity of Hot Flashes

PubMed Central

Gallicchio, Lisa; Miller, Susan R.; Zacur, Howard A.; Flaws, Jodi A.

2016-01-01

Objective To identify risk factors associated with the duration of hot flashes and the time of peak hot flash severity in mid-life women. Methods A cohort of 647 women reporting hot flashes were followed for 1–7 years, with survey data and hormone measurements. Survival analysis determined the association of risk factors with the duration of hot flashes. Linear regression determined the association of risk factors with the time of peak severity. Final models were determined through stepwise model selection. Results Average hot flash duration was 2.5 years (range: 1–33), with peak severity on average at 2.96 years (range: 1–20). Duration of hot flashes was associated with race, education, menopause status, smoking history, BMI, alcohol consumption, leisure activity levels, and levels of estradiol and progesterone. In the final model, only race, alcohol consumption, leisure activity, and menopause were retained. White women had significantly shorter hot flash durations than non-white women. Women consuming at least 12 alcoholic drinks in the previous year had a significantly shorter duration of hot flashes with a smaller effect of hot flash duration on increasing in time to peak severity compared to those who consumed less than 12 alcoholic drinks in that year. Higher serum progesterone levels were associated with later peak severity if the duration of the hot flashes was less than 2 years and an earlier peak severity otherwise. Conclusions These results suggest that some behaviors (such as moderate alcohol consumption) are associated with shorter durations of hot flashes, and that progesterone was associated with the dynamics of hot flash severity. PMID:27149066

Strategies for skeletal health in the elderly.

PubMed

Eastell, Richard; Lambert, Helen

2002-05-01

Osteoporosis is a common disease in the elderly, and the fractures that result from this disorder affect 40 % of women and 14 % of men over the age of 50 years. The risk of fracture relates to bone mineral density and the risk of falling, among other factors. Low bone mineral density in the elderly can result from either low peak bone mass or accelerated bone loss, or a combination of the two. Nutritional factors play a role in both the attainment of peak bone mass and in the rate of age-related bone loss. The main determinants of peak bone mass are genetic factors, early-life nutrition, diet and exercise. Of the nutritional factors Ca, and particularly milk, are the most important contributors to peak bone mass. Some of these factors may interact; for example, a low dietary Ca in addition to an unfavourable vitamin D receptor gene polymorphism may result in low peak bone mass. The age-related changes in bone mass may also have a genetic basis, but deficiency of oestrogen is a major contributor. In addition, undernutrition is common in the elderly, and lack of dietary protein contributes both to impaired bone mineral conservation and increased propensity to fall. There is a decreased ability of the intestine to adapt to a low-Ca diet with increasing age. Other dietary factors include vitamin K, Zn and fruit and vegetables. Adequate nutritional status, particularly of Ca and vitamin D, is essential for the successful pharmaceutical treatment of osteoporosis. Thus, strategies for enhancing skeletal health in the elderly must begin in early childhood, and continue throughout life.

Flood of March 1997 in southern Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, K.S.; Vivian, S.A.; Diam, F.J.; Crecelius, C.J.

1997-01-01

Rainfall amounts of up to 12 inches produced by thunderstorms during March 1-2, 1997 resulted in severe flooding throughout much of southern Ohio. Eighteen counties were declared Federal and State disaster areas. Cost estimates of damage in Ohio from the flooding are nearly $180 million. About 6,500 residences and more than 800 businesses were affected by flooding. Nearly 20,000 persons were evacuated, and 5 deaths were attributed to the flooding. Record peak stage and streamflow were recorded at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations on Ohio Brush Creek near West Union and Shade River near Chester. The peak streamflow at these two locations exceeded the estimate of the 100-year-recurrence- interval peak streamflow. The recurrence intervals of peak stream flow at selected USGS streamflow gaging stations throughout southern Ohio ranged from less than 2 years to greater than 100 years. The most severe flooding in the State was generally confined to areas within 50 to 70 miles of the Ohio River. Many communities along the Ohio River experienced the worst flooding in more than 30 years.

Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Dyslipidemia in Chongqing, China.

PubMed

Qi, Li; Ding, Xianbin; Tang, Wenge; Li, Qin; Mao, Deqiang; Wang, Yulin

2015-10-26

The increasing prevalence of dyslipidemia has become a worldwide public health problem, and the prevalence varies widely according to socioeconomic, cultural and ethnic characteristics. Chongqing has experienced rapid economic development and is now the economic center of Southwestern China. There are scant data on serum lipid profile of residents in Chongqing, the largest municipality directly under the Central Government in China. We conducted a cross-sectional study in a representative sample of 5375 residents of Chongqing, aged ≥18 years, and estimated the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its associated risk factors. According to the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, the age-standardized prevalence of dyslipidemia was 35.5% (34.4% among men and 37.6% among women). Among the 2009 patients with dyslipidemia, 44.2% had isolated hypertriglyceridemia, 14.7% had isolated hypercholesterolemia, 13.2% had mixed hyperlipidemia, and 28.0% had isolated low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The peak prevalence of dyslipidemia in men was between 30 and 39 years (48.2%), and then declined gradually; in women, the prevalence of dyslipidemia increased with age, with the peak prevalence occurring after age 60 (46.3%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that dyslipidemia was associated with age, education level, physical activity, obesity and central obesity for both men and women. In conclusion, the results indicated dyslipidemia, particularly hypertriglyceridemia and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, are very common in Chongqing. To prevent dyslipidemia, it is essential to conduct appropriate intervention programs aimed at risk factor reduction and implement routine screening programs for blood lipid levels in Chongqing, China.

Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Dyslipidemia in Chongqing, China

PubMed Central

Qi, Li; Ding, Xianbin; Tang, Wenge; Li, Qin; Mao, Deqiang; Wang, Yulin

2015-01-01

The increasing prevalence of dyslipidemia has become a worldwide public health problem, and the prevalence varies widely according to socioeconomic, cultural and ethnic characteristics. Chongqing has experienced rapid economic development and is now the economic center of Southwestern China. There are scant data on serum lipid profile of residents in Chongqing, the largest municipality directly under the Central Government in China. We conducted a cross-sectional study in a representative sample of 5375 residents of Chongqing, aged ≥18 years, and estimated the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its associated risk factors. According to the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, the age-standardized prevalence of dyslipidemia was 35.5% (34.4% among men and 37.6% among women). Among the 2009 patients with dyslipidemia, 44.2% had isolated hypertriglyceridemia, 14.7% had isolated hypercholesterolemia, 13.2% had mixed hyperlipidemia, and 28.0% had isolated low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The peak prevalence of dyslipidemia in men was between 30 and 39 years (48.2%), and then declined gradually; in women, the prevalence of dyslipidemia increased with age, with the peak prevalence occurring after age 60 (46.3%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that dyslipidemia was associated with age, education level, physical activity, obesity and central obesity for both men and women. In conclusion, the results indicated dyslipidemia, particularly hypertriglyceridemia and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, are very common in Chongqing. To prevent dyslipidemia, it is essential to conduct appropriate intervention programs aimed at risk factor reduction and implement routine screening programs for blood lipid levels in Chongqing, China. PMID:26516874