Mathematics and Statistics Research Department progress report, period ending June 30, 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denson, M.V.; Funderlic, R.E.; Gosslee, D.G.

1982-08-01

This report is the twenty-fifth in the series of progress reports of the Mathematics and Statistics Research Department of the Computer Sciences Division, Union Carbide Corporation Nuclear Division (UCC-ND). Part A records research progress in analysis of large data sets, biometrics research, computational statistics, materials science applications, moving boundary problems, numerical linear algebra, and risk analysis. Collaboration and consulting with others throughout the UCC-ND complex are recorded in Part B. Included are sections on biology, chemistry, energy, engineering, environmental sciences, health and safety, materials science, safeguards, surveys, and the waste storage program. Part C summarizes the various educational activities inmore » which the staff was engaged. Part D lists the presentations of research results, and Part E records the staff's other professional activities during the report period.« less

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, Max

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

Statistical analysis of Skylab 3. [endocrine/metabolic studies of astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, D. A.

1974-01-01

The results of endocrine/metabolic studies of astronauts on Skylab 3 are reported. One-way analysis of variance, contrasts, two-way unbalanced analysis of variance, and analysis of periodic changes in flight are included. Results for blood tests, and urine tests are presented.

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, M.

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

A comparative statistical study of long-term agroclimatic conditions affecting the growth of US winter wheat: Distributions of regional monthly average precipitation on the Great Plains and the state of Maryland and the effect of agroclimatic conditions on yield in the state of Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J.

1981-01-01

A histogram analysis of average monthly precipitation over 30 and 84 year periods for both Maryland and Kansas was made and the results compared. A second analysis, a statistical assessment of the effect of average monthly precipitation on Kansas winter wheat yield was made. The data sets covered the three periods of 1941-1970, 1887-1970, and 1887-1921. Analyses of the limited data sets used (only the average monthly precipitation and temperature were correlated against yield) indicated that fall precipitation values, especially those of September and October, were more important to winter wheat yield than were spring values, particularly for the period 1941-1970.

Trends in incidence of lung cancer in Croatia from 2001 to 2013: gender and regional differences

PubMed Central

Siroglavić, Katarina-Josipa; Polić Vižintin, Marina; Tripković, Ingrid; Šekerija, Mario; Kukulj, Suzana

2017-01-01

Aim To provide an overview of the lung cancer incidence trends in the City of Zagreb (Zagreb), Split-Dalmatia County (SDC), and Croatia in the period from 2001 to 2013. Method Incidence data were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. For calculating incidence rates per 100 000 population, we used population estimates for the period 2001-2013 from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Age-standardized rates of lung cancer incidence were calculated by the direct standardization method using the European Standard Population. To describe incidence trends, we used joinpoint regression analysis. Results Joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence in men in all regions, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -2.2% for Croatia, 1.9% for Zagreb, and -2.0% for SDC. In women, joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant increase in the incidence for Croatia, with APC of 1.4%, a statistically significant increase of 1.0% for Zagreb, and no significant change in trend for SDC. In both genders, joinpoint analysis showed a significant decrease in age-standardized incidence rates of lung cancer, with APC of -1.3% for Croatia, -1.1% for Zagreb, and -1.6% for SDC. Conclusion There was an increase in female lung cancer incidence rate and a decrease in male lung cancer incidence rate in Croatia in 2001-20013 period, with similar patterns observed in all the investigated regions. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention and cessation policies, especially among women and young people. PMID:29094814

Climate Change Assessment of Precipitation in Tandula Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Rahul Kumar; Tiwari, H. L.; Lohani, A. K.

2018-02-01

The precipitation is the principle input of hydrological cycle affect availability of water in spatial and temporal scale of basin due to widely accepted climate change. The present study deals with the statistical downscaling using Statistical Down Scaling Model for rainfall of five rain gauge stations (Ambagarh, Bhanpura, Balod, Chamra and Gondli) in Tandula, Kharkhara and Gondli reservoirs of Chhattisgarh state of India to forecast future rainfall in three different periods under SRES A1B and A2 climatic forcing conditions. In the analysis, twenty-six climatic variables obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction were used and statistically tested for selection of best-fit predictors. The conditional process based statistical correlation was used to evolve multiple linear relations in calibration for period of 1981-1995 was tested with independent data of 1996-2003 for validation. The developed relations were further used to predict future rainfall scenarios for three different periods 2020-2035 (FP-1), 2046-2064 (FP-2) and 2081-2100 (FP-3) and compared with monthly rainfalls during base period (1981-2003) for individual station and all three reservoir catchments. From the analysis, it has been found that most of the rain gauge stations and all three reservoir catchments may receive significant less rainfall in future. The Thiessen polygon based annual and seasonal rainfall for different catchments confirmed a reduction of seasonal rainfall from 5.1 to 14.1% in Tandula reservoir, 11-19.2% in Kharkhara reservoir and 15.1-23.8% in Gondli reservoir. The Gondli reservoir may be affected the most in term of water availability in future prediction periods.

Current State and Development Trends of Education Policy Research in China in the Last Decade (2004-2013): A Statistical Analysis of Papers from Eight Core Chinese Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ling, Guo

2017-01-01

The author conducted sampling and statistical analysis of papers on education policy research collected by the China National Knowledge Infrastructure in the period from the years 2004--2013. Under the current state of education policy research in China, the number of papers correlates positively with the year; the papers are concentrated in…

Phase locking route behind complex periodic windows in a forced oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jan, Hengtai; Tsai, Kuo-Ting; Kuo, Li-wei

2013-09-01

Chaotic systems have complex reactions against an external driving force; even in cases with low-dimension oscillators, the routes to synchronization are diverse. We proposed a stroboscope-based method for analyzing driven chaotic systems in their phase space. According to two statistic quantities generated from time series, we could realize the system state and the driving behavior simultaneously. We demonstrated our method in a driven bi-stable system, which showed complex period windows under a proper driving force. With increasing periodic driving force, a route from interior periodic oscillation to phase synchronization through the chaos state could be found. Periodic windows could also be identified and the circumstances under which they occurred distinguished. Statistical results were supported by conditional Lyapunov exponent analysis to show the power in analyzing the unknown time series.

Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong-Hua; Yu, Xiao-Wen; Suo, Yuan-Yuan

2012-06-01

We choice the yuan exchange rate index based on a basket of currencies as the effective exchange rate of the yuan and investigate the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index after China's exchange rate system reform on the 21st July 2005. After dividing the time series into two parts according to the change in the yuan exchange rate regime in July 2008, we compare the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index during these two periods. We find that the distribution of the two return series has the exponential form. We also perform the detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and the multifractal detrending moving average analysis (MFDMA). The two periods possess different degrees of long-range correlations, and the multifractal nature is also unveiled in these two time series. Significant difference is found in the scaling exponents τ(q) and singularity spectra f(α) of the two periods obtained from the MFDMA analysis. Besides, in order to detect the sources of multifractality, shuffling and phase randomization procedures are applied to destroy the long-range temporal correlation and fat-tailed distribution of the yuan exchange rate index respectively. We find that the fat-tailedness plays a critical role in the sources of multifractality in the first period, while the long memory is the major cause in the second period. The results suggest that the change in China's exchange rate regime in July 2008 gives rise to the different multifractal properties of the yuan exchange rate index in these two periods, and thus has an effect on the effective exchange rate of the yuan after the exchange rate reform on the 21st July 2005.

MATHEMATICS PANEL PROGRESS REPORT FOR PERIOD MARCH 1, 1957 TO AUGUST 31, 1958

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Householder, A.S.

1959-03-24

ORACLE operation and programming are summarized, and progress is indicated on various current problems. Work is reviewed on numerical analysis, programming, basic mathematics, biometrics and statistics, ORACLE operations and special codes, and training. Publications and lectures for the report period are listed. (For preceding period see ORNL-2283.) (W.D.M.)

Clusters in the distribution of pulsars in period, pulse-width, and age. [statistical analysis/statistical distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, K. B.; Sturrock, P. A.

1975-01-01

The question of whether pulsars form a single group or whether pulsars come in two or more different groups is discussed. It is proposed that such groups might be related to several factors such as the initial creation of the neutron star, or the orientation of the magnetic field axis with the spin axis. Various statistical models are examined.

Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in an Arid Regime: Evidence from a 108-Year Data Record and Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall

2004-01-01

The study employs a 108-year precipitation data record to identify statistically significant anomalies in rainfall downwind of the Phoenix urban region. The analysis reveals that during the monsoon season locations northeastern suburbs and exurbs of the Phoenix metropolitan area have experienced statistically significant increases in mean precipitation of 12 to 14 percent from a pre-urban (1895-1949) to post-urban (1950-2003) period. Mean and median post-urban precipitation totals in the anomaly region are significantly greater, in the statistical sense, than regions west of the city and in nearby mountainous regions of similar or greater topography. Further analysis of satellite-based rainfall totals for the summer of 2003 also reveal the existence of the anomaly region during a severe drought period. The anomaly can not simply be attributed to maximum topographic relief and is hypothesize to be related to urban-topographic interactions.

Impact of a Single Unusually Large Rainfall Event on the Level of Risk Used for Infrastructure Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Jain, S.

2013-12-01

Rare and unusually large events (such as hurricanes and floods) can create unusual and interesting trends in statistics. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is usually used to statistically describe extreme rainfall events. A number of the recent studies have shown that the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased over the last century and as a result, there has been change in parameters of GEV distribution with the time (non-stationary). But what impact does a single unusually large rainfall event (e.g., hurricane Irene) have on the GEV parameters and consequently on the level of risks or the return periods used in designing the civil infrastructures? In other words, if such a large event occurs today, how will it influence the level of risks (estimated based on past rainfall records) for the civil infrastructures? To answer these questions, we performed sensitivity analysis of the distribution parameters of GEV as well as the return periods to unusually large outlier events. The long-term precipitation records over the period of 1981-2010 from 12 USHCN stations across the state of Maine were used for analysis. For most of the stations, addition of each outlier event caused an increase in the shape parameter with a huge decrease on the corresponding return period. This is a key consideration for time-varying engineering design. These isolated extreme weather events should simultaneously be considered with traditional statistical methodology related to extreme events while designing civil infrastructures (such as dams, bridges, and culverts). Such analysis is also useful in understanding the statistical uncertainty of projecting extreme events into future.

A 20-year period of orthotopic liver transplantation activity in a single center: a time series analysis performed using the R Statistical Software.

PubMed

Santori, G; Andorno, E; Morelli, N; Casaccia, M; Bottino, G; Di Domenico, S; Valente, U

2009-05-01

In many Western countries a "minimum volume rule" policy has been adopted as a quality measure for complex surgical procedures. In Italy, the National Transplant Centre set the minimum number of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) procedures/y at 25/center. OLT procedures performed in a single center for a reasonably large period may be treated as a time series to evaluate trend, seasonal cycles, and nonsystematic fluctuations. Between January 1, 1987 and December 31, 2006, we performed 563 cadaveric donor OLTs to adult recipients. During 2007, there were another 28 procedures. The greatest numbers of OLTs/y were performed in 2001 (n = 51), 2005 (n = 50), and 2004 (n = 49). A time series analysis performed using R Statistical Software (Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria), a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics, showed an incremental trend after exponential smoothing as well as after seasonal decomposition. The predicted OLT/mo for 2007 calculated with the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing applied to the previous period 1987-2006 helped to identify the months where there was a major difference between predicted and performed procedures. The time series approach may be helpful to establish a minimum volume/y at a single-center level.

Childbirth after pelvic floor surgery: analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics in England, 2002-2008.

PubMed

Pradhan, A; Tincello, D G; Kearney, R

2013-01-01

To report the numbers of patients having childbirth after pelvic floor surgery in England. Retrospective analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics data. Hospital Episode Statistics database. Women, aged 20-44 years, undergoing childbirth after pelvic floor surgery between the years 2002 and 2008. Analysis of the Hospital Episode Statistics database using Office of Population, Censuses and Surveys: Classification of Interventions and Procedures, 4th Revision (OPCS-4) code at the four-character level for pelvic floor surgery and delivery, in women aged 20-44 years, between the years 2002 and 2008. Numbers of women having delivery episodes after previous pelvic floor surgery, and numbers having further pelvic floor surgery after delivery. Six hundred and three women had a delivery episode after previous pelvic floor surgery in the time period 2002-2008. In this group of 603 women, 42 had a further pelvic floor surgery episode following delivery in the same time period. The incidence of repeat surgery episode following delivery was higher in the group delivered vaginally than in those delivered by caesarean (13.6 versus 4.4%; odds ratio, 3.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.87-6.10). There were 603 women having childbirth after pelvic floor surgery in the time period 2002-2008. The incidence of further pelvic floor surgery after childbirth was lower after caesarean delivery than after vaginal delivery, and this may indicate a protective effect of abdominal delivery. © 2012 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

Suicide in Greece 1992-2012: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Papaslanis, Theodoros; Kontaxakis, Vassilis; Christodoulou, Christos; Konstantakopoulos, George; Kontaxaki, Maria-Irini; Papadimitriou, George N

2016-08-01

Since 2008, Greece has entered a long period of economic crisis with adverse effects on various aspects of daily life. In this frame, it is quite important to examine the suicide trends in Greece. Our analysis covered the period 1992-2012. 2012 was the last year for which official suicide data were available. The inclusion of data for pre-crisis period enabled us to assess trends in suicide preceding the economic crisis, starting in 2008. Trends in sex- and age-adjusted standardized suicide rates (SSR) were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Total SSR presented statistically significant annual decrease of 0.89% (95% confidence interval (CI): -1.7, -0.1) during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, the trend in total SSR increased statistically significant annual increase (12.48%; 95% CI: 0.3%, 26.1%). SSR in males presented an initial period of modest annual decrease (-0.84%; 95% CI: -1.6%, -0.1%), during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, an annual increase by 9.25% (95% CI: 2.7%, 16.3%) was revealed. No change in female SSR trend was observed during the studied period. According to the results of this study, there is clear evidence of an increase in the overall SSR and male SSR in Greece during the period of the current financial crisis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.; May, Jayne E.

2012-01-01

Six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were selected for analysis. Streamflow-gaging station 08128000 South Concho River at Christoval has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1931-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128400 Middle Concho River above Tankersley has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1962-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128500 Middle Concho River near Tankersley has no significant trends in the streamflow statistics considered for the period 1931-60. Streamflow-gaging station 08134000 North Concho River near Carlsbad has downward trends for annual mean daily discharge, annual 7-day minimum daily discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the period 1925-2009. Streamflow-gaging stations 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo and 08136500 Concho River at Paint Rock have downward trends for 1916-2009 for all streamflow statistics calculated, but streamflow-gaging station 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo has an upward trend for annual maximum daily discharge during 1964-2009. The downward trends detected during 1916-2009 for the Concho River at San Angelo are not unexpected because of three reservoirs impounding and profoundly regulating streamflow.

[Nitrogen and protein content analysis of human milk, diurnality vs nocturnality].

PubMed

Sánchez López, C L; Hernández, A; Rodríguez, A B; Rivero, M; Barriga, C; Cubero, J

2011-01-01

Breast milk is changing with the progression of lactation and during a 24-h period. To determine the effect of diurnality or nocturnality on total nitrogen and protein content of the breast milk. We collected human milk samples from health mothers living throughout Community of Extremadura (Spain) from January 2008 to December 2008 with less than two months of lactation. We divided the samples in three groups: calostral group (1-5 days postpartum), transitional group (6-15 days postpartum) and mature group (> 15 days postpartum). All samples were stored in a freezer at -80 ºC. We considered as day period between 08:00-20:00 h and night period 20:00-08:00 h. Analysis of the human milk samples was based on the Kjeldahl method. Protein contents were calculated from total nitrogen x 6,25. The statistical analysis of the data was descriptive (mean ± standard deviation) and inferential (T-Student test). No differences (P > 0,05) were found to exist among the contents of individual human milk samples. The mean contents of each component were as follows: Total nitrogen of calostral, transitional and mature group was 0,30 ± 0,06 g/dL (night period), 0,29 ± 0,05 g/dL (day period); 0,26 ± 0,04 g/dL (night period), 0,25 ± 0,04 g/dL (day period); 0,22 ± 0,05 g/dL (night period), 0,20 ± 0,04 g/dL (day period) respectively, in this mature group with a statistical variation (P < 0,05). Protein content of calostral, transitional and mature group was 1,88 ± 0,4 g/dL (night period), 1,81 ± 0,3 g/dL (day period); 1,62 ± 0,3 g/dL (night period), 1,59 ± 0,3 g/dL (day period); 1,35 ± 0,3 g/dL (night period), 1,26 ± 0,3 g/dL (day period) respectively, in this mature group with a statistical variation (P < 0,05). Although we observed differences in the nitrogen and protein content during the individual stages of lactation, it is just in the population of mature lactating women, where the components analyzed varied significantly between day and night.

Comparison of a non-stationary voxelation-corrected cluster-size test with TFCE for group-Level MRI inference.

PubMed

Li, Huanjie; Nickerson, Lisa D; Nichols, Thomas E; Gao, Jia-Hong

2017-03-01

Two powerful methods for statistical inference on MRI brain images have been proposed recently, a non-stationary voxelation-corrected cluster-size test (CST) based on random field theory and threshold-free cluster enhancement (TFCE) based on calculating the level of local support for a cluster, then using permutation testing for inference. Unlike other statistical approaches, these two methods do not rest on the assumptions of a uniform and high degree of spatial smoothness of the statistic image. Thus, they are strongly recommended for group-level fMRI analysis compared to other statistical methods. In this work, the non-stationary voxelation-corrected CST and TFCE methods for group-level analysis were evaluated for both stationary and non-stationary images under varying smoothness levels, degrees of freedom and signal to noise ratios. Our results suggest that, both methods provide adequate control for the number of voxel-wise statistical tests being performed during inference on fMRI data and they are both superior to current CSTs implemented in popular MRI data analysis software packages. However, TFCE is more sensitive and stable for group-level analysis of VBM data. Thus, the voxelation-corrected CST approach may confer some advantages by being computationally less demanding for fMRI data analysis than TFCE with permutation testing and by also being applicable for single-subject fMRI analyses, while the TFCE approach is advantageous for VBM data. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1269-1280, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.

2014-01-01

Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

Investigation of trends in flooding in the Tug Fork basin of Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.; Scott, Arthur G.; Wyant, Timothy

1982-01-01

Statistical analysis indicates that the average size of annual-flood peaks of the Tug Fork (Ky., Va., and W. Va.) has been increasing. However, additional statistical analysis does not indicate that the flood levels that were exceeded typically once or twice a year in the period 1947-79 are any more likely to be exceeded now than in 1947. Possible trends in streamchannel size also are investigated at three locations. No discernible trends in channel size are noted. Further statistical analysis of the trend in the size of annual-flood peaks shows that much of the annual variation is related to local rainfall and to the 'natural' hydrologic response in a relatively undisturbed subbasin. However, some statistical indication of trend persists after accounting for these natural factors, though it is of borderline statistical significance. Further study in the basin may relate flood magnitudes to both rainfall and to land use.

The Effect of Education on Economic Growth in Greece over the 1960-2000 Period

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsamadias, Constantinos; Prontzas, Panagiotis

2012-01-01

This paper examines the impact of education on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000 by applying the model introduced by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil. The findings of the empirical analysis reveal that education had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000. The econometric…

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1996-09-01

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

Trend analysis of annual precipitation of Mauritius for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, Nussaïbah B.; Aydin, Olgu

2018-04-01

This study researched the precipitation variability across 53 meteorological stations in Mauritius and different subregions of the island, over a 30-year study period (1981-2010). Time series was investigated for each 5-year interval and also for the whole study period. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho statistical tests were used to detect trends in annual precipitation. A mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends was highlighted for the 5-year interval analysis. The statistical tests nevertheless agreed on the overall trend for Mauritius and the subregions. Most regions showed a decrease in precipitation during the period 1996-2000. This is attributed to the 1998-2000 drought period which was brought about by a moderate La Niña event. In general, an increase in precipitation levels was observed across the country during the study period. This increase is the result of an increase in extreme precipitation events in the region. On the other hand, two subregions, both located in the highlands, experienced a decline in precipitation levels. Since most of the reservoirs in Mauritius are located in these two subregions, this implies serious consequences for water availability in the country if existing storage capacities are kept.

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1996-01-01

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

Analysis of Antarctic Remote-Site Automatic Weather Station Data for Period January 1979 - February 1980.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

usefulness to the Untted States Antarctic mission as managed by the National Science Foundation. Various statistical measures were applied to the reported... statistical procedures that would evolve a general meteorological picture of each of these remote sites. Primary texts used as a basis for...processed by station for monthly, seasonal and annual statistics , as appropriate. The following outlines the evaluations completed for both

Statistical methods for detecting and comparing periodic data and their application to the nycthemeral rhythm of bodily harm: A population based study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Animals, including humans, exhibit a variety of biological rhythms. This article describes a method for the detection and simultaneous comparison of multiple nycthemeral rhythms. Methods A statistical method for detecting periodic patterns in time-related data via harmonic regression is described. The method is particularly capable of detecting nycthemeral rhythms in medical data. Additionally a method for simultaneously comparing two or more periodic patterns is described, which derives from the analysis of variance (ANOVA). This method statistically confirms or rejects equality of periodic patterns. Mathematical descriptions of the detecting method and the comparing method are displayed. Results Nycthemeral rhythms of incidents of bodily harm in Middle Franconia are analyzed in order to demonstrate both methods. Every day of the week showed a significant nycthemeral rhythm of bodily harm. These seven patterns of the week were compared to each other revealing only two different nycthemeral rhythms, one for Friday and Saturday and one for the other weekdays. PMID:21059197

Australia 31-GHz brightness temperature exceedance statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gary, B. L.

1988-01-01

Water vapor radiometer measurements were made at DSS 43 during an 18 month period. Brightness temperatures at 31 GHz were subjected to a statistical analysis which included correction for the effects of occasional water on the radiometer radome. An exceedance plot was constructed, and the 1 percent exceedance statistics occurs at 120 K. The 5 percent exceedance statistics occurs at 70 K, compared with 75 K in Spain. These values are valid for all of the three month groupings that were studied.

Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

2017-07-01

Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

A longitudinal analysis of bibliometric and impact factor trends among the core international journals of nursing, 1977-2008.

PubMed

Smith, Derek R

2010-12-01

Although bibliometric analysis affords significant insight into the progression and distribution of information within a particular research field, detailed longitudinal studies of this type are rare within the field of nursing. This study aimed to investigate, from a bibliometric perspective, the progression and trends of core international nursing journals over the longest possible time period. A detailed bibliometric analysis was undertaken among 7 core international nursing periodicals using custom historical data sourced from the Thomson Reuters Journal Citation Reports®. In the 32 years between 1977 and 2008, the number of citations received by these 7 journals increased over 700%. A sustained and statistically significant (p<0.001) 3-fold increase was also observed in the average impact factor score during this period. Statistical analysis revealed that all periodicals experienced significant (p<0.001) improvements in their impact factors over time, with gains ranging from approximately 2- to 78-fold. Overall, this study provides one of the most comprehensive, longitudinal bibliometric analyses ever conducted in the field of nursing. Impressive and continual impact factor gains suggest that published nursing research is being increasingly seen, heard and cited in the international academic community. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical Analysis of Time-Series from Monitoring of Active Volcanic Vents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachowycz, S.; Cosma, I.; Pyle, D. M.; Mather, T. A.; Rodgers, M.; Varley, N. R.

2016-12-01

Despite recent advances in the collection and analysis of time-series from volcano monitoring, and the resulting insights into volcanic processes, challenges remain in forecasting and interpreting activity from near real-time analysis of monitoring data. Statistical methods have potential to characterise the underlying structure and facilitate intercomparison of these time-series, and so inform interpretation of volcanic activity. We explore the utility of multiple statistical techniques that could be widely applicable to monitoring data, including Shannon entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis, by their application to various data streams from volcanic vents during periods of temporally variable activity. Each technique reveals changes through time in the structure of some of the data that were not apparent from conventional analysis. For example, we calculate the Shannon entropy (a measure of the randomness of a signal) of time-series from the recent dome-forming eruptions of Volcán de Colima (Mexico) and Soufrière Hills (Montserrat). The entropy of real-time seismic measurements and the count rate of certain volcano-seismic event types from both volcanoes is found to be temporally variable, with these data generally having higher entropy during periods of lava effusion and/or larger explosions. In some instances, the entropy shifts prior to or coincident with changes in seismic or eruptive activity, some of which were not clearly recognised by real-time monitoring. Comparison with other statistics demonstrates the sensitivity of the entropy to the data distribution, but that it is distinct from conventional statistical measures such as coefficient of variation. We conclude that each analysis technique examined could provide valuable insights for interpretation of diverse monitoring time-series.

Bias and inference from misspecified mixed-effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Jennifer A; Fielding, Katherine L; Davey, Calum; Aiken, Alexander M; Hargreaves, James R; Hayes, Richard J

2017-10-15

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed-effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common-to-all or varied-between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within-cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within-cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed-effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within-cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan Star Ratings on Enrollment before and after Implementation of Quality-Related Bonus Payments in 2012

PubMed Central

Li, Pengxiang; Doshi, Jalpa A.

2016-01-01

Objective Since 2007, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have published 5-star quality rating measures to aid consumers in choosing Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plans (MAPDs). We examined the impact of these star ratings on Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MAPD) enrollment before and after 2012, when star ratings became tied to bonus payments for MAPDs that could be used to improve plan benefits and/or reduce premiums in the subsequent year. Methods A longitudinal design and multivariable hybrid models were used to assess whether star ratings had a direct impact on concurrent year MAPD contract enrollment (by influencing beneficiary choice) and/or an indirect impact on subsequent year MAPD contract enrollment (because ratings were linked to bonus payments). The main analysis was based on contract-year level data from 2009–2015. We compared effects of star ratings in the pre-bonus payment period (2009–2011) and post-bonus payment period (2012–2015). Extensive sensitivity analyses varied the analytic techniques, unit of analysis, and sample inclusion criteria. Similar analyses were conducted separately using stand-alone PDP contract-year data; since PDPs were not eligible for bonus payments, they served as an external comparison group. Result The main analysis included 3,866 MAPD contract-years. A change of star rating had no statistically significant effect on concurrent year enrollment in any of the pre-, post-, or pre-post combined periods. On the other hand, star rating increase was associated with a statistically significant increase in the subsequent year enrollment (a 1-star increase associated with +11,337 enrollees, p<0.001) in the post-bonus payment period but had a very small and statistically non-significant effect on subsequent year enrollment in the pre-bonus payment period. Further, the difference in effects on subsequent year enrollment was statistically significant between the pre- and post-periods (p = 0.011). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the findings were robust. No statistically significant effect of star ratings was found on concurrent or subsequent year enrollment in the pre- or post-period in the external comparison group of stand-alone PDP contracts. Conclusion Star ratings had no direct impact on concurrent year MAPD enrollment before or after the introduction of bonus payments tied to star ratings. However, after the introduction of these bonus payments, MAPD star ratings had a significant indirect impact of increasing subsequent year enrollment, likely via the reinvestment of bonuses to provide lower premiums and/or additional member benefits in the following year. PMID:27149092

Impact of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan Star Ratings on Enrollment before and after Implementation of Quality-Related Bonus Payments in 2012.

PubMed

Li, Pengxiang; Doshi, Jalpa A

2016-01-01

Since 2007, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have published 5-star quality rating measures to aid consumers in choosing Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plans (MAPDs). We examined the impact of these star ratings on Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MAPD) enrollment before and after 2012, when star ratings became tied to bonus payments for MAPDs that could be used to improve plan benefits and/or reduce premiums in the subsequent year. A longitudinal design and multivariable hybrid models were used to assess whether star ratings had a direct impact on concurrent year MAPD contract enrollment (by influencing beneficiary choice) and/or an indirect impact on subsequent year MAPD contract enrollment (because ratings were linked to bonus payments). The main analysis was based on contract-year level data from 2009-2015. We compared effects of star ratings in the pre-bonus payment period (2009-2011) and post-bonus payment period (2012-2015). Extensive sensitivity analyses varied the analytic techniques, unit of analysis, and sample inclusion criteria. Similar analyses were conducted separately using stand-alone PDP contract-year data; since PDPs were not eligible for bonus payments, they served as an external comparison group. The main analysis included 3,866 MAPD contract-years. A change of star rating had no statistically significant effect on concurrent year enrollment in any of the pre-, post-, or pre-post combined periods. On the other hand, star rating increase was associated with a statistically significant increase in the subsequent year enrollment (a 1-star increase associated with +11,337 enrollees, p<0.001) in the post-bonus payment period but had a very small and statistically non-significant effect on subsequent year enrollment in the pre-bonus payment period. Further, the difference in effects on subsequent year enrollment was statistically significant between the pre- and post-periods (p = 0.011). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the findings were robust. No statistically significant effect of star ratings was found on concurrent or subsequent year enrollment in the pre- or post-period in the external comparison group of stand-alone PDP contracts. Star ratings had no direct impact on concurrent year MAPD enrollment before or after the introduction of bonus payments tied to star ratings. However, after the introduction of these bonus payments, MAPD star ratings had a significant indirect impact of increasing subsequent year enrollment, likely via the reinvestment of bonuses to provide lower premiums and/or additional member benefits in the following year.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2010-06-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 80's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The r-largest annual maxima method provides more reliable predictions of the extreme values especially for small return periods (<100 years). Finally, the study statistically proves the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Pitfalls in chronobiology: a suggested analysis using intrathecal bupivacaine analgesia as an example.

PubMed

Shafer, Steven L; Lemmer, Bjoern; Boselli, Emmanuel; Boiste, Fabienne; Bouvet, Lionel; Allaouchiche, Bernard; Chassard, Dominique

2010-10-01

The duration of analgesia from epidural administration of local anesthetics to parturients has been shown to follow a rhythmic pattern according to the time of drug administration. We studied whether there was a similar pattern after intrathecal administration of bupivacaine in parturients. In the course of the analysis, we came to believe that some data points coincident with provider shift changes were influenced by nonbiological, health care system factors, thus incorrectly suggesting a periodic signal in duration of labor analgesia. We developed graphical and analytical tools to help assess the influence of individual points on the chronobiological analysis. Women with singleton term pregnancies in vertex presentation, cervical dilation 3 to 5 cm, pain score >50 mm (of 100 mm), and requesting labor analgesia were enrolled in this study. Patients received 2.5 mg of intrathecal bupivacaine in 2 mL using a combined spinal-epidural technique. Analgesia duration was the time from intrathecal injection until the first request for additional analgesia. The duration of analgesia was analyzed by visual inspection of the data, application of smoothing functions (Supersmoother; LOWESS and LOESS [locally weighted scatterplot smoothing functions]), analysis of variance, Cosinor (Chronos-Fit), Excel, and NONMEM (nonlinear mixed effect modeling). Confidence intervals (CIs) were determined by bootstrap analysis (1000 replications with replacement) using PLT Tools. Eighty-two women were included in the study. Examination of the raw data using 3 smoothing functions revealed a bimodal pattern, with a peak at approximately 0630 and a subsequent peak in the afternoon or evening, depending on the smoother. Analysis of variance did not identify any statistically significant difference between the duration of analgesia when intrathecal injection was given from midnight to 0600 compared with the duration of analgesia after intrathecal injection at other times. Chronos-Fit, Excel, and NONMEM produced identical results, with a mean duration of analgesia of 38.4 minutes (95% CI: 35.4-41.6 minutes), an 8-hour periodic waveform with an amplitude of 5.8 minutes (95% CI: 2.1-10.7 minutes), and a phase offset of 6.5 hours (95% CI: 5.4-8.0 hours) relative to midnight. The 8-hour periodic model did not reach statistical significance in 40% of bootstrap analyses, implying that statistical significance of the 8-hour periodic model was dependent on a subset of the data. Two data points before the change of shift at 0700 contributed most strongly to the statistical significance of the periodic waveform. Without these data points, there was no evidence of an 8-hour periodic waveform for intrathecal bupivacaine analgesia. Chronobiology includes the influence of external daily rhythms in the environment (e.g., nursing shifts) as well as human biological rhythms. We were able to distinguish the influence of an external rhythm by combining several novel analyses: (1) graphical presentation superimposing the raw data, external rhythms (e.g., nursing and anesthesia provider shifts), and smoothing functions; (2) graphical display of the contribution of each data point to the statistical significance; and (3) bootstrap analysis to identify whether the statistical significance was highly dependent on a data subset. These approaches suggested that 2 data points were likely artifacts of the change in nursing and anesthesia shifts. When these points were removed, there was no suggestion of biological rhythm in the duration of intrathecal bupivacaine analgesia.

Outbreak of resistant Acinetobacter baumannii- measures and proposal for prevention and control.

PubMed

Romanelli, Roberta Maia de Castro; Jesus, Lenize Adriana de; Clemente, Wanessa Trindade; Lima, Stella Sala Soares; Rezende, Edna Maria; Coutinho, Rosane Luiza; Moreira, Ricardo Luiz Fontes; Neves, Francelli Aparecida Cordeiro; Brás, Nelma de Jesus

2009-10-01

Acinetobacter baumannii colonization and infection, frequent in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients, is commonly associated with high morbimortality. Several outbreaks due to multidrug-resistant (MDR) A. baumanii have been reported but few of them in Brazil. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with colonization and infection by MDR and carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii strains isolated from patients admitted to the adult ICU at HC/UFMG. A case-control study was performed from January 2007 to June 2008. Cases were defined as patients colonized or infected by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii, and controls were patients without MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii isolation, in a 1:2 proportion. For statistical analysis, due to changes in infection control guidelines, infection criteria and the notification process, this study was divided into two periods. During the first period analyzed, from January to December 2007, colonization or infection by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii was associated with prior infection, invasive device utilization, prior carbapenem use and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, prior infection and mechanical ventilation proved to be statistically significant risk factors. Carbapenem use showed a tendency towards a statistical association. During the second study period, from January to June 2008, variables with a significant association with MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii colonization/infection were catheter utilization, carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use, hepatic transplantation, and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, only CVC use showed a statistical difference. Carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use displayed a tendency to be risk factors. Risk factors must be focused on infection control and prevention measures considering A. baumanni dissemination.

Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adams, James H.; Dietrich, William F.

2012-01-01

Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Variability analysis of the reconstructed daily global solar radiation under all-sky and cloud-free conditions in Madrid during the period 1887-1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antón, M.; Román, R.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Calbó, J.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-07-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the daily global solar radiation (GSR) reconstructed from sunshine duration measurements at Madrid (Spain) from 1887 to 1950. Additionally, cloud cover information recorded simultaneously by human observations for the study period was also analyzed and used to select cloud-free days. First, the day-to-day variability of reconstructed GSR data was evaluated, finding a strong relationship between GSR and cloudiness. The second step was to analyze the long-term evolution of the GSR data which exhibited two clear trends with opposite sign: a marked negative trend of - 36 kJ/m2 per year for 1887-1915 period and a moderate positive trend of + 13 kJ/m2 per year for 1916-1950 period, both statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Therefore, there is evidence of "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods in the reconstructed GSR data for all-sky conditions in Madrid from the late 19th to the mid-20th centuries. Unlike the long-term evolution of GSR data, cloud cover showed non-statistically significant trends for the two analyzed sub-periods, 1887-1915 and 1916-1950. Finally, GSR trends were analyzed exclusively under cloud-free conditions in summer by means of the determination of the clearness index for those days with all cloud cover observations equal to zero oktas. The long-term evolution of the clearness index was in accordance with the "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods, showing smaller trends but still statistically significant. This result points out that aerosol load variability could have had a non-negligible influence on the long-term evolution of GSR even as far as from the late 19th century.

Criteria for confirming sequence periodicity identified by Fourier transform analysis: application to GCR2, a candidate plant GPCR?

PubMed

Illingworth, Christopher J R; Parkes, Kevin E; Snell, Christopher R; Mullineaux, Philip M; Reynolds, Christopher A

2008-03-01

Methods to determine periodicity in protein sequences are useful for inferring function. Fourier transformation is one approach but care is required to ensure the periodicity is genuine. Here we have shown that empirically-derived statistical tables can be used as a measure of significance. Genuine protein sequences data rather than randomly generated sequences were used as the statistical backdrop. The method has been applied to G-protein coupled receptor (GPCR) sequences, by Fourier transformation of hydrophobicity values, codon frequencies and the extent of over-representation of codon pairs; the latter being related to translational step times. Genuine periodicity was observed in the hydrophobicity whereas the apparent periodicity (as inferred from previously reported measures) in the translation step times was not validated statistically. GCR2 has recently been proposed as the plant GPCR receptor for the hormone abscisic acid. It has homology to the Lanthionine synthetase C-like family of proteins, an observation confirmed by fold recognition. Application of the Fourier transform algorithm to the GCR2 family revealed strongly predicted seven fold periodicity in hydrophobicity, suggesting why GCR2 has been reported to be a GPCR, despite negative indications in most transmembrane prediction algorithms. The underlying multiple sequence alignment, also required for the Fourier transform analysis of periodicity, indicated that the hydrophobic regions around the 7 GXXG motifs commence near the C-terminal end of each of the 7 inner helices of the alpha-toroid and continue to the N-terminal region of the helix. The results clearly explain why GCR2 has been understandably but erroneously predicted to be a GPCR.

[Statistical analysis of German radiologic periodicals: developmental trends in the last 10 years].

PubMed

Golder, W

1999-09-01

To identify which statistical tests are applied in German radiological publications, to what extent their use has changed during the last decade, and which factors might be responsible for this development. The major articles published in "ROFO" and "DER RADIOLOGE" during 1988, 1993 and 1998 were reviewed for statistical content. The contributions were classified by principal focus and radiological subspecialty. The methods used were assigned to descriptive, basal and advanced statistics. Sample size, significance level and power were established. The use of experts' assistance was monitored. Finally, we calculated the so-called cumulative accessibility of the publications. 525 contributions were found to be eligible. In 1988, 87% used descriptive statistics only, 12.5% basal, and 0.5% advanced statistics. The corresponding figures in 1993 and 1998 are 62 and 49%, 32 and 41%, and 6 and 10%, respectively. Statistical techniques were most likely to be used in research on musculoskeletal imaging and articles dedicated to MRI. Six basic categories of statistical methods account for the complete statistical analysis appearing in 90% of the articles. ROC analysis is the single most common advanced technique. Authors make increasingly use of statistical experts' opinion and programs. During the last decade, the use of statistical methods in German radiological journals has fundamentally improved, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Presently, advanced techniques account for 20% of the pertinent statistical tests. This development seems to be promoted by the increasing availability of statistical analysis software.

Multi objective climate change impact assessment using multi downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional and global scale. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from a set of statistically downscaled GCM projections for Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using 2 different statistically downscaled climate projections namely the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. Analysis is performed on spatial, temporal and frequency based parameters in the future period at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice-versa for temperature. Frequency analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Relating N2O emissions during biological nitrogen removal with operating conditions using multivariate statistical techniques.

PubMed

Vasilaki, V; Volcke, E I P; Nandi, A K; van Loosdrecht, M C M; Katsou, E

2018-04-26

Multivariate statistical analysis was applied to investigate the dependencies and underlying patterns between N 2 O emissions and online operational variables (dissolved oxygen and nitrogen component concentrations, temperature and influent flow-rate) during biological nitrogen removal from wastewater. The system under study was a full-scale reactor, for which hourly sensor data were available. The 15-month long monitoring campaign was divided into 10 sub-periods based on the profile of N 2 O emissions, using Binary Segmentation. The dependencies between operating variables and N 2 O emissions fluctuated according to Spearman's rank correlation. The correlation between N 2 O emissions and nitrite concentrations ranged between 0.51 and 0.78. Correlation >0.7 between N 2 O emissions and nitrate concentrations was observed at sub-periods with average temperature lower than 12 °C. Hierarchical k-means clustering and principal component analysis linked N 2 O emission peaks with precipitation events and ammonium concentrations higher than 2 mg/L, especially in sub-periods characterized by low N 2 O fluxes. Additionally, the highest ranges of measured N 2 O fluxes belonged to clusters corresponding with NO 3 -N concentration less than 1 mg/L in the upstream plug-flow reactor (middle of oxic zone), indicating slow nitrification rates. The results showed that the range of N 2 O emissions partially depends on the prior behavior of the system. The principal component analysis validated the findings from the clustering analysis and showed that ammonium, nitrate, nitrite and temperature explained a considerable percentage of the variance in the system for the majority of the sub-periods. The applied statistical methods, linked the different ranges of emissions with the system variables, provided insights on the effect of operating conditions on N 2 O emissions in each sub-period and can be integrated into N 2 O emissions data processing at wastewater treatment plants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Research design and statistical methods in Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences (PJMS).

PubMed

Akhtar, Sohail; Shah, Syed Wadood Ali; Rafiq, M; Khan, Ajmal

2016-01-01

This article compares the study design and statistical methods used in 2005, 2010 and 2015 of Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences (PJMS). Only original articles of PJMS were considered for the analysis. The articles were carefully reviewed for statistical methods and designs, and then recorded accordingly. The frequency of each statistical method and research design was estimated and compared with previous years. A total of 429 articles were evaluated (n=74 in 2005, n=179 in 2010, n=176 in 2015) in which 171 (40%) were cross-sectional and 116 (27%) were prospective study designs. A verity of statistical methods were found in the analysis. The most frequent methods include: descriptive statistics (n=315, 73.4%), chi-square/Fisher's exact tests (n=205, 47.8%) and student t-test (n=186, 43.4%). There was a significant increase in the use of statistical methods over time period: t-test, chi-square/Fisher's exact test, logistic regression, epidemiological statistics, and non-parametric tests. This study shows that a diverse variety of statistical methods have been used in the research articles of PJMS and frequency improved from 2005 to 2015. However, descriptive statistics was the most frequent method of statistical analysis in the published articles while cross-sectional study design was common study design.

Statistical Analysis in Dental Research Papers.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-08

AD A136, 019 STATISTICAL ANALYSS IN DENTAL RESEARCH PAPERS(Ul ARMY I INS OF DENTAL NESEARCH WASHINGTON DC L LORTON 0R AUG983 UNCL ASS FED F/S 6/5 IEE...BEFORE COSTL’,..G FORM 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO 3. RECIPIENTS CATALOG NUbER d Ste S. TYPE OF REPORT A PERIOD COVERED ,cistical Analysis in Dental Research ...Papers Submission of papaer Jan- Aue 1983 X!t AUTHOR(&) ". COTACO.RATN Lewis Lorton 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT

Homicide mortality rates in Canada, 2000-2009: Youth at increased risk.

PubMed

Basham, C Andrew; Snider, Carolyn

2016-10-20

To estimate and compare Canadian homicide mortality rates (HMRs) and trends in HMRs across age groups, with a focus on trends for youth. Data for the period of 2000 to 2009 were collected from Statistics Canada's CANSIM (Canadian Statistical Information Management) Table 102-0540 with the following ICD-10-CA coded external causes of death: X85 to Y09 (assault) and Y87.1 (sequelae of assault). Annual population counts from 2000 to 2009 were obtained from Statistics Canada's CANSIM Table 051-0001. Both death and population counts were organized into five-year age groups. A random effects negative binomial regression analysis was conducted to estimate age group-specific rates, rate ratios, and trends in homicide mortality. There were 9,878 homicide deaths in Canada during the study period. The increase in the overall homicide mortality rate (HMR) of 0.3% per year was not statistically significant (95% CI: -1.1% to +1.8%). Canadians aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years had the highest HMRs during the study period, and experienced statistically significant annual increases in their HMRs of 3% and 4% respectively (p < 0.05). A general, though not statistically significant, decrease in the HMR was observed for all age groups 50+ years. A fixed effects negative binomial regression model showed that the HMR for males was higher than for females over the study period [RRfemale/male = 0.473 (95% CI: 0.361, 0.621)], but no significant difference in sex-specific trends in the HMR was found. An increasing risk of homicide mortality was identified among Canadian youth, ages 15-24, over the 10-year study period. Research that seeks to understand the reasons for the increased homicide risk facing Canada's youth, and public policy responses to reduce this risk, are warranted.

A statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique to predict rainfall during flood period over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Zhu, Yimin; Ha, Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, a statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition method is established to do the seasonal prediction of the rainfall during flood period (FPR) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV). This method decomposites the rainfall over the MLYRV into three time-scale components, namely, the interannual component with the period less than 8 years, the interdecadal component with the period from 8 to 30 years, and the interdecadal component with the period larger than 30 years. Then, the predictors are selected for the three time-scale components of FPR through the correlation analysis. At last, a statistical forecast model is established using the multiple linear regression technique to predict the three time-scale components of the FPR, respectively. The results show that this forecast model can capture the interannual and interdecadal variation of FPR. The hindcast of FPR during 14 years from 2001 to 2014 shows that the FPR can be predicted successfully in 11 out of the 14 years. This forecast model performs better than the model using traditional scheme without time-scale decomposition. Therefore, the statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique has good skills and application value in the operational prediction of FPR over the MLYRV.

Parricide: An Empirical Analysis of 24 Years of U.S. Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heide, Kathleen M.; Petee, Thomas A.

2007-01-01

Empirical analysis of homicides in which children have killed parents has been limited. The most comprehensive statistical analysis involving parents as victims was undertaken by Heide and used Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) data for the 10-year period 1977 to 1986. This article provides an updated examination of characteristics of victims,…

Descriptive Statistics and Cluster Analysis for Extreme Rainfall in Java Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Komalasari, K.; Pawitan, H.; Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

This study aims to describe regional pattern of extreme rainfall based on maximum daily rainfall for period 1983 to 2012 in Java Island. Descriptive statistics analysis was performed to obtain centralization, variation and distribution of maximum precipitation data. Mean and median are utilized to measure central tendency data while Inter Quartile Range (IQR) and standard deviation are utilized to measure variation of data. In addition, skewness and kurtosis used to obtain shape the distribution of rainfall data. Cluster analysis using squared euclidean distance and ward method is applied to perform regional grouping. Result of this study show that mean (average) of maximum daily rainfall in Java Region during period 1983-2012 is around 80-181mm with median between 75-160mm and standard deviation between 17 to 82. Cluster analysis produces four clusters and show that western area of Java tent to have a higher annual maxima of daily rainfall than northern area, and have more variety of annual maximum value.

Summer weather characteristics and periodicity observed over the period 1888-2013 in the region of Belgrade, Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujović, Dragana; Todorović, Nedeljko; Paskota, Mira

2018-04-01

With the goal of finding summer climate patterns in the region of Belgrade (Serbia) over the period 1888-2013, different techniques of multivariate statistical analysis were used in order to analyze the simultaneous changes of a number of climatologic parameters. An increasing trend of the mean daily minimum temperature was detected. In the recent decades (1960-2013), this increase was much more pronounced. The number of days with the daily minimum temperature greater or equal to 20 °C also increased significantly. Precipitation had no statistically significant trend. Spectral analysis showed a repetitive nature of the climatologic parameters which had periods that roughly can be classified into three groups, with the durations of the following: (1) 6 to 7 years, (2) 10 to 18 years, and (3) 21, 31, and 41 years. The temperature variables mainly had one period of repetitiveness of 5 to 7 years. Among other variables, the correlations of regional fluctuations of the temperature and precipitation and atmospheric circulation indices were analyzed. The North Atlantic oscillation index had the same periodicity as that of the precipitation, and it was not correlated to the temperature variables. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index correlated well to the summer mean daily minimum and summer mean temperatures. The underlying structure of the data was analyzed by principal component analysis, which detected the following four easily interpreted dimensions: More sunshine-Higher temperature, Precipitation, Extreme heats, and Changeable summer.

Comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature variability for Northern Eurasia based on the Reanalysis and in-situ observed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulgina, T.; Genina, E.; Gordov, E.; Nikitchuk, K.

2009-04-01

At present numerous data archives which include meteorological observations as well as climate processes modeling data are available for Earth Science specialists. Methods of mathematical statistics are widely used for their processing and analysis. In many cases they represent the only way of quantitative assessment of the meteorological and climatic information. Unified set of analysis methods allows us to compare climatic characteristics calculated on the basis of different datasets with the purpose of performing more detailed analysis of climate dynamics for both regional and global levels. The report presents the results of comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature behavior for the Northern Eurasia territory for the period from 1979 to 2004 based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis AMIP II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis data and observation data obtained from meteorological stations of the former Soviet Union. Statistical processing of atmosphere temperature data included analysis of time series homogeneity of climate indices approved by WMO, such as "Number of frost days", "Number of summer days", "Number of icing days", "Number of tropical nights", etc. by means of parametric methods of mathematical statistics (Fisher and Student tests). That allowed conducting comprehensive research of spatio-temporal features of the atmosphere temperature. Analysis of the atmosphere temperature dynamics revealed inhomogeneity of the data obtained for large observation intervals. Particularly, analysis performed for the period 1979 - 2004 showed the significant increase of the number of frost and icing days approximately by 1 day for every 2 years and decrease roughly by 1 day for 2 years for the number of summer days. Also it should be mentioned that the growth period mean temperature have increased by 1.5 - 2° C for the time period being considered. The usage of different Reanalysis datasets in conjunction with in-situ observed data allowed comparing of climate indices values calculated on the basis of different datasets that improves the reliability of the results obtained. Partial support of SB RAS Basic Research Program 4.5.2 (Project 2) is acknowledged.

Statistical Significance of Periodicity and Log-Periodicity with Heavy-Tailed Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

We estimate the probability that random noise, of several plausible standard distributions, creates a false alarm that a periodicity (or log-periodicity) is found in a time series. The solution of this problem is already known for independent Gaussian distributed noise. We investigate more general situations with non-Gaussian correlated noises and present synthetic tests on the detectability and statistical significance of periodic components. A periodic component of a time series is usually detected by some sort of Fourier analysis. Here, we use the Lomb periodogram analysis, which is suitable and outperforms Fourier transforms for unevenly sampled time series. We examine the false-alarm probability of the largest spectral peak of the Lomb periodogram in the presence of power-law distributed noises, of short-range and of long-range fractional-Gaussian noises. Increasing heavy-tailness (respectively correlations describing persistence) tends to decrease (respectively increase) the false-alarm probability of finding a large spurious Lomb peak. Increasing anti-persistence tends to decrease the false-alarm probability. We also study the interplay between heavy-tailness and long-range correlations. In order to fully determine if a Lomb peak signals a genuine rather than a spurious periodicity, one should in principle characterize the Lomb peak height, its width and its relations to other peaks in the complete spectrum. As a step towards this full characterization, we construct the joint-distribution of the frequency position (relative to other peaks) and of the height of the highest peak of the power spectrum. We also provide the distributions of the ratio of the highest Lomb peak to the second highest one. Using the insight obtained by the present statistical study, we re-examine previously reported claims of ``log-periodicity'' and find that the credibility for log-periodicity in 2D-freely decaying turbulence is weakened while it is strengthened for fracture, for the ion-signature prior to the Kobe earthquake and for financial markets.

An astronomer's guide to period searching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarzenberg-Czerny, A.

2003-03-01

We concentrate on analysis of unevenly sampled time series, interrupted by periodic gaps, as often encountered in astronomy. While some of our conclusions may appear surprising, all are based on classical statistical principles of Fisher & successors. Except for discussion of the resolution issues, it is best for the reader to forget temporarily about Fourier transforms and to concentrate on problems of fitting of a time series with a model curve. According to their statistical content we divide the issues into several sections, consisting of: (ii) statistical numerical aspects of model fitting, (iii) evaluation of fitted models as hypotheses testing, (iv) the role of the orthogonal models in signal detection (v) conditions for equivalence of periodograms (vi) rating sensitivity by test power. An experienced observer working with individual objects would benefit little from formalized statistical approach. However, we demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in evaluation of performance of periodograms and in quantitative design of large variability surveys.

Spatio-temporal variability of droughts and terrestrial water storage over Lake Chad Basin using independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa; Ferreira, Vagner G.

2016-09-01

Lake Chad has recently been perceived to be completely desiccated and almost extinct due to insufficient published ground observations. Given the high spatial variability of rainfall in the region, and the fact that extreme climatic conditions (for example, droughts) could be intensifying in the Lake Chad basin (LCB) due to human activities, a spatio-temporal approach to drought analysis becomes essential. This study employed independent component analysis (ICA), a fourth-order cumulant statistics, to decompose standardised precipitation index (SPI), standardised soil moisture index (SSI), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into spatial and temporal patterns over the LCB. In addition, this study uses satellite altimetry data to estimate variations in the Lake Chad water levels, and further employs relevant climate teleconnection indices (El-Niño Southern Oscillation-ENSO, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation-AMO, and Atlantic Meridional Mode-AMM) to examine their links to the observed drought temporal patterns over the basin. From the spatio-temporal drought analysis, temporal evolutions of SPI at 12 month aggregation show relatively wet conditions in the last two decades (although with marked alterations) with the 2012-2014 period being the wettest. In addition to the improved rainfall conditions during this period, there was a statistically significant increase of 0.04 m/yr in altimetry water levels observed over Lake Chad between 2008 and 2014, which confirms a shift in the hydrological conditions of the basin. Observed trend in TWS changes during the 2002-2014 period shows a statistically insignificant increase of 3.0 mm/yr at the centre of the basin, coinciding with soil moisture deficit indicated by the temporal evolutions of SSI at all monthly accumulations during the 2002-2003 and 2009-2012 periods. Further, SPI at 3 and 6 month scales indicated fluctuating drought conditions at the extreme south of the basin, coinciding with a statistically insignificant decline in TWS of about 4.5 mm/yr at the southern catchment of the basin. Finally, correlation analyses indicate that ENSO, AMO, and AMM are associated with extreme rainfall conditions in the basin, with AMO showing the strongest association (statistically significant correlation of 0.55) with SPI 12 month aggregation. Therefore, this study provides a framework that will support drought monitoring in the LCB.

A double-blind placebo-controlled cross-over clinical trial of DONepezil In Posterior cortical atrophy due to underlying Alzheimer's Disease: DONIPAD study.

PubMed

Ridha, Basil H; Crutch, Sebastian; Cutler, Dawn; Frost, Christopher; Knight, William; Barker, Suzie; Epie, Norah; Warrington, Elizabeth K; Kukkastenvehmas, Riitta; Douglas, Jane; Rossor, Martin N

2018-05-01

The study investigated whether donepezil exerts symptomatic benefit in patients with posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), an atypical variant of Alzheimer's disease. A single-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over clinical trial was performed to assess the efficacy of donepezil in patients with PCA. Each patient received either donepezil (5 mg once daily in the first 6 weeks and 10 mg once daily in the second 6 weeks) or placebo for 12 weeks. After a 2-week washout period, each patient received the other treatment arm during the following 12 weeks followed by another 2-week washout period. The primary outcome was the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) at 12 weeks. Secondary outcome measures were five neuropsychological tests reflecting parieto-occipital function. Intention-to-treat analysis was used. For each outcome measure, carry-over effects were first assessed. If present, then analysis was restricted to the first 12-week period. Otherwise, the standard approach to the analysis of a 2 × 2 cross-over trial was used. Eighteen patients (13 females) were recruited (mean age 61.6 years). There was a protocol violation in one patient, who subsequently withdrew from the study due to gastrointestinal side effects. There was statistically significant (p < 0.05) evidence of a carry-over effect on MMSE. Therefore, the analysis of treatment effect on MMSE was restricted to the first 12-week period. Treatment effect at 6 weeks was statistically significant (difference = 2.5 in favour of donepezil, 95% CI 0.1 to 5.0, p < 0.05). Treatment effect at 12 weeks was close, but not statistically significant (difference = 2.0 in favour of donepezil, 95% CI -0.1 to 4.5, p > 0.05). There were no statistically significant treatment effects on any of the five neuropsychological tests, except for digit span at 12 weeks (higher by 0.5 digits in favour of placebo, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.9). Gastrointestinal side effects occurred most frequently, affecting 13/18 subjects (72%), and were the cause of study discontinuation in one subject. Nightmares and vivid dreams occurred in 8/18 subjects (44%), and were statistically more frequent during treatment with donepezil. In this small study, there was no statistically significant treatment effect of donepezil on the primary outcome measure (MMSE score at 12 weeks) in PCA patients, who appear to be particularly susceptible to the development of nightmares and vivid dreams when treated. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN22636071 . Retrospectively registered 19 May 2010.

Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tiao, G. C.

1992-01-01

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Geospatial Characterization of Fluvial Wood Arrangement in a Semi-confined Alluvial River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. J.; Harden, C. P.; Pavlowsky, R. T.

2014-12-01

Large woody debris (LWD) has become universally recognized as an integral component of fluvial systems, and as a result, has become increasingly common as a river restoration tool. However, "natural" processes of wood recruitment and the subsequent arrangement of LWD within the river network are poorly understood. This research used a suite of spatial statistics to investigate longitudinal arrangement patterns of LWD in a low-gradient, Midwestern river. First, a large-scale GPS inventory of LWD, performed on the Big River in the eastern Missouri Ozarks, resulted in over 4,000 logged positions of LWD along seven river segments that covered nearly 100 km of the 237 km river system. A global Moran's I analysis indicates that LWD density is spatially autocorrelated and displays a clustering tendency within all seven river segments (P-value range = 0.000 to 0.054). A local Moran's I analysis identified specific locations along the segments where clustering occurs and revealed that, on average, clusters of LWD density (high or low) spanned 400 m. Spectral analyses revealed that, in some segments, LWD density is spatially periodic. Two segments displayed strong periodicity, while the remaining segments displayed varying degrees of noisiness. Periodicity showed a positive association with gravel bar spacing and meander wavelength, although there were insufficient data to statistically confirm the relationship. A wavelet analysis was then performed to investigate periodicity relative to location along the segment. The wavelet analysis identified significant (α = 0.05) periodicity at discrete locations along each of the segments. Those reaches yielding strong periodicity showed stronger relationships between LWD density and the geomorphic/riparian independent variables tested. Analyses consistently identified valley width and sinuosity as being associated with LWD density. The results of these analyses contribute a new perspective on the longitudinal distribution of LWD in a river system, which should help identify physical and/or riparian control mechanisms of LWD arrangement and support the development of models of LWD arrangement. Additionally, the spatial statistical tools presented here have shown to be valuable for identifying longitudinal patterns in river system components.

Statistical analysis of infrasound signatures in airglow observations: Indications for acoustic resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilger, Christoph; Schmidt, Carsten; Bittner, Michael

2013-02-01

The detection of infrasonic signals in temperature time series of the mesopause altitude region (at about 80-100 km) is performed at the German Remote Sensing Data Center of the German Aerospace Center (DLR-DFD) using GRIPS instrumentation (GRound-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometers). Mesopause temperature values with a temporal resolution of up to 10 s are derived from the observation of nocturnal airglow emissions and permit the identification of signals within the long-period infrasound range.Spectral intensities of wave signatures with periods between 2.5 and 10 min are estimated applying the wavelet analysis technique to one minute mean temperature values. Selected events as well as the statistical distribution of 40 months of observation are presented and discussed with respect to resonant modes of the atmosphere. The mechanism of acoustic resonance generated by strong infrasonic sources is a potential explanation of distinct features with periods between 3 and 5 min observed in the dataset.

Statistical analysis of the pulse-coupled synchronization strategy for wireless sensor networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Yongqiang; Núñez, Felipe; Doyle, Francis J.

2013-01-01

Pulse-coupled synchronization is attracting increased attention in the sensor network community. Yet its properties have not been fully investigated. Using statistical analysis, we prove analytically that by controlling the number of connections at each node, synchronization can be guaranteed for generally pulse-coupled oscillators even in the presence of a refractory period. The approach does not require the initial phases to reside in half an oscillation cycle, which improves existing results. We also find that a refractory period can be strategically included to reduce idle listening at nearly no sacrifice to the synchronization probability. Given that reduced idle listening leads to higher energy efficiency in the synchronization process, the strategically added refractory period makes the synchronization scheme appealing to cheap sensor nodes, where energy is a precious system resource. We also analyzed the pulse-coupled synchronization in the presence of unreliable communication links and obtained similar results. QualNet experimental results are given to confirm the effectiveness of the theoretical predictions. PMID:24324322

High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

2008-02-01

Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

Statistics and Machine Learning based Outlier Detection Techniques for Exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Amit; Montgomery, Michele

2015-08-01

Architectures of planetary systems are observable snapshots in time that can indicate formation and dynamic evolution of planets. The observable key parameters that we consider are planetary mass and orbital period. If planet masses are significantly less than their host star masses, then Keplerian Motion is defined as P^2 = a^3 where P is the orbital period in units of years and a is the orbital period in units of Astronomical Units (AU). Keplerian motion works on small scales such as the size of the Solar System but not on large scales such as the size of the Milky Way Galaxy. In this work, for confirmed exoplanets of known stellar mass, planetary mass, orbital period, and stellar age, we analyze Keplerian motion of systems based on stellar age to seek if Keplerian motion has an age dependency and to identify outliers. For detecting outliers, we apply several techniques based on statistical and machine learning methods such as probabilistic, linear, and proximity based models. In probabilistic and statistical models of outliers, the parameters of a closed form probability distributions are learned in order to detect the outliers. Linear models use regression analysis based techniques for detecting outliers. Proximity based models use distance based algorithms such as k-nearest neighbour, clustering algorithms such as k-means, or density based algorithms such as kernel density estimation. In this work, we will use unsupervised learning algorithms with only the proximity based models. In addition, we explore the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various techniques by validating the outliers. The validation criteria for the outliers is if the ratio of planetary mass to stellar mass is less than 0.001. In this work, we present our statistical analysis of the outliers thus detected.

Methods for trend analysis: Examples with problem/failure data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Church, Curtis K.

1989-01-01

Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted.

Research design and statistical methods in Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences (PJMS)

PubMed Central

Akhtar, Sohail; Shah, Syed Wadood Ali; Rafiq, M.; Khan, Ajmal

2016-01-01

Objective: This article compares the study design and statistical methods used in 2005, 2010 and 2015 of Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences (PJMS). Methods: Only original articles of PJMS were considered for the analysis. The articles were carefully reviewed for statistical methods and designs, and then recorded accordingly. The frequency of each statistical method and research design was estimated and compared with previous years. Results: A total of 429 articles were evaluated (n=74 in 2005, n=179 in 2010, n=176 in 2015) in which 171 (40%) were cross-sectional and 116 (27%) were prospective study designs. A verity of statistical methods were found in the analysis. The most frequent methods include: descriptive statistics (n=315, 73.4%), chi-square/Fisher’s exact tests (n=205, 47.8%) and student t-test (n=186, 43.4%). There was a significant increase in the use of statistical methods over time period: t-test, chi-square/Fisher’s exact test, logistic regression, epidemiological statistics, and non-parametric tests. Conclusion: This study shows that a diverse variety of statistical methods have been used in the research articles of PJMS and frequency improved from 2005 to 2015. However, descriptive statistics was the most frequent method of statistical analysis in the published articles while cross-sectional study design was common study design. PMID:27022365

Variations of attractors and wavelet spectra of the immunofluorescence distributions for women in the pregnant period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galich, Nikolay E.

2008-07-01

Communication contains the description of the immunology data treatment. New nonlinear methods of immunofluorescence statistical analysis of peripheral blood neutrophils have been developed. We used technology of respiratory burst reaction of DNA fluorescence in the neutrophils cells nuclei due to oxidative activity. The histograms of photon count statistics the radiant neutrophils populations' in flow cytometry experiments are considered. Distributions of the fluorescence flashes frequency as functions of the fluorescence intensity are analyzed. Statistic peculiarities of histograms set for women in the pregnant period allow dividing all histograms on the three classes. The classification is based on three different types of smoothing and long-range scale averaged immunofluorescence distributions, their bifurcation and wavelet spectra. Heterogeneity peculiarities of long-range scale immunofluorescence distributions and peculiarities of wavelet spectra allow dividing all histograms on three groups. First histograms group belongs to healthy donors. Two other groups belong to donors with autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Some of the illnesses are not diagnosed by standards biochemical methods. Medical standards and statistical data of the immunofluorescence histograms for identifications of health and illnesses are interconnected. Peculiarities of immunofluorescence for women in pregnant period are classified. Health or illness criteria are connected with statistics features of immunofluorescence histograms. Neutrophils populations' fluorescence presents the sensitive clear indicator of health status.

Utilization of an Enhanced Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) to Predict Daily Precipitation and Temperature in a Semi-Arid Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, S. R.; Hogue, T. S.

2011-12-01

Global climate models (GCMs) are primarily used to generate historical and future large-scale circulation patterns at a coarse resolution (typical order of 50,000 km2) and fail to capture climate variability at the ground level due to localized surface influences (i.e topography, marine, layer, land cover, etc). Their inability to accurately resolve these processes has led to the development of numerous 'downscaling' techniques. The goal of this study is to enhance statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and temperature for regions with heterogeneous land cover and topography. Our analysis was divided into two periods, historical (1961-2000) and contemporary (1980-2000), and tested using sixteen predictand combinations from four GCMs (GFDL CM2.0, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM-CM3 and MRI-CGCM2 3.2a. The Southern California area was separated into five county regions: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego. Principle component analysis (PCA) was performed on ground-based observations in order to (1) reduce the number of redundant gauges and minimize dimensionality and (2) cluster gauges that behave statistically similarly for post-analysis. Post-PCA analysis included extensive testing of predictor-predictand relationships using an enhanced canonical correlation analysis (ECCA). The ECCA includes obtaining the optimal predictand sets for all models within each spatial domain (county) as governed by daily and monthly overall statistics. Results show all models maintain mean annual and monthly behavior within each county and daily statistics are improved. The level of improvement highly depends on the vegetation extent within each county and the land-to-ocean ratio within the GCM spatial grid. The utilization of the entire historical period also leads to better statistical representation of observed daily precipitation. The validated ECCA technique is being applied to future climate scenarios distributed by the IPCC in order to provide forcing data for regional hydrologic models and assess future water resources in the Southern California region.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Mathematics and statistics research department. Progress report, period ending June 30, 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lever, W.E.; Kane, V.E.; Scott, D.S.

1981-09-01

This report is the twenty-fourth in the series of progress reports of the Mathematics and Statistics Research Department of the Computer Sciences Division, Union Carbide Corporation - Nuclear Division (UCC-ND). Part A records research progress in biometrics research, materials science applications, model evaluation, moving boundary problems, multivariate analysis, numerical linear algebra, risk analysis, and complementary areas. Collaboration and consulting with others throughout the UCC-ND complex are recorded in Part B. Included are sections on biology and health sciences, chemistry, energy, engineering, environmental sciences, health and safety research, materials sciences, safeguards, surveys, and uranium resource evaluation. Part C summarizes the variousmore » educational activities in which the staff was engaged. Part D lists the presentations of research results, and Part E records the staff's other professional activities during the report period.« less

A Novel Analysis Of The Connection Between Indian Monsoon Rainfall And Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, S.; Narasimha, R.

2005-12-01

The existence of possible correlations between the solar cycle period as extracted from the yearly means of sunspot numbers and any periodicities that may be present in the Indian monsoon rainfall has been addressed using wavelet analysis. The wavelet transform coefficient maps of sunspot-number time series and those of the homogeneous Indian monsoon rainfall annual time series data reveal striking similarities, especially around the 11-year period. A novel method to analyse and quantify this similarity devising statistical schemes is suggested in this paper. The wavelet transform coefficient maxima at the 11-year period for the sunspot numbers and the monsoon rainfall have each been modelled as a point process in time and a statistical scheme for identifying a trend or dependence between the two processes has been devised. A regression analysis of parameters in these processes reveals a nearly linear trend with small but systematic deviations from the regressed line. Suitable function models for these deviations have been obtained through an unconstrained error minimisation scheme. These models provide an excellent fit to the time series of the given wavelet transform coefficient maxima obtained from actual data. Statistical significance tests on these deviations suggest with 99% confidence that the deviations are sample fluctuations obtained from normal distributions. In fact our earlier studies (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, No. 5) revealed that average rainfall is higher during periods of greater solar activity for all cases, at confidence levels varying from 75% to 99%, being 95% or greater in 3 out of 7 of them. Analysis using standard wavelet techniques reveals higher power in the 8--16 y band during the higher solar activity period, in 6 of the 7 rainfall time series, at confidence levels exceeding 99.99%. Furthermore, a comparison between the wavelet cross spectra of solar activity with rainfall and noise (including those simulating the rainfall spectrum and probability distribution) revealed that over the two test-periods respectively of high and low solar activity, the average cross power of the solar activity index with rainfall exceeds that with the noise at z-test confidence levels exceeding 99.99% over period-bands covering the 11.6 y sunspot cycle (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, SORCE 2005 14-16th September, at Durango, Colorado USA). These results provide strong evidence for connections between Indian rainfall and solar activity. The present study reveals in addition the presence of subharmonics of the solar cycle period in the monsoon rainfall time series together with information on their phase relationships.

Co-Evolution of User and Organizational Interfaces: A Longitudinal Case Study of WWW Dissemination of National Statistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marchionini, Gary

2002-01-01

Describes how user interfaces for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) web site evolved over a 5-year period along with the larger organizational interface and how this co-evolution has influenced the institution. Interviews with BLS staff and transaction log analysis are the foci of this study, as well as user information-seeking studies and user…

Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls by using non-homogeneous Poissonian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirangelo, B.; Ferrari, E.; de Luca, D. L.

2009-09-01

In recent years several temporally homogeneous stochastic models have been applied to describe the rainfall process. In particular stochastic analysis of daily rainfall time series may contribute to explain the statistic features of the temporal variability related to the phenomenon. Due to the evident periodicity of the physical process, these models have to be used only to short temporal intervals in which occurrences and intensities of rainfalls can be considered reliably homogeneous. To this aim, occurrences of daily rainfalls can be considered as a stationary stochastic process in monthly periods. In this context point process models are widely used for at-site analysis of daily rainfall occurrence; they are continuous time series models, and are able to explain intermittent feature of rainfalls and simulate interstorm periods. With a different approach, periodic features of daily rainfalls can be interpreted by using a temporally non-homogeneous stochastic model characterized by parameters expressed as continuous functions in the time. In this case, great attention has to be paid to the parsimony of the models, as regards the number of parameters and the bias introduced into the generation of synthetic series, and to the influence of threshold values in extracting peak storm database from recorded daily rainfall heights. In this work, a stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterized by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. In particular, variation of rainfall occurrence intensity ? (t) is modelled by using Fourier series analysis, in which the non-homogeneous process is transformed into a homogeneous and unit one through a proper transformation of time domain, and the choice of the minimum number of harmonics is evaluated applying available statistical tests. The procedure is applied to a dataset of rain gauges located in different geographical zones of Mediterranean area. Time series have been selected on the basis of the availability of at least 50 years in the time period 1921-1985, chosen as calibration period, and of all the years of observation in the subsequent validation period 1986-2005, whose daily rainfall occurrence process variability is under hypothesis. Firstly, for each time series and for each fixed threshold value, parameters estimation of the non-homogeneous Poisson model is carried out, referred to calibration period. As second step, in order to test the hypothesis that daily rainfall occurrence process preserves the same behaviour in more recent time periods, the intensity distribution evaluated for calibration period is also adopted for the validation period. Starting from this and using a Monte Carlo approach, 1000 synthetic generations of daily rainfall occurrences, of length equal to validation period, have been carried out, and for each simulation sample ?(t) has been evaluated. This procedure is adopted because of the complexity of determining analytical statistical confidence limits referred to the sample intensity ?(t). Finally, sample intensity, theoretical function of the calibration period and 95% statistical band, evaluated by Monte Carlo approach, are matching, together with considering, for each threshold value, the mean square error (MSE) between the theoretical ?(t) and the sample one of recorded data, and his correspondent 95% one tail statistical band, estimated from the MSE values between the sample ?(t) of each synthetic series and the theoretical one. The results obtained may be very useful in the context of the identification and calibration of stochastic rainfall models based on historical precipitation data. Further applications of the non-homogeneous Poisson model will concern the joint analyses of the storm occurrence process with the rainfall height marks, interpreted by using a temporally homogeneous model in proper sub-year intervals.

Are changes in drinking related to changes in cannabis use among Swedish adolescents? A time-series analysis for the period 1989-2016.

PubMed

Gripe, Isabella; Danielsson, Anna-Karin; Ramstedt, Mats

2018-04-21

To examine if changes in alcohol consumption are associated with changes in cannabis use among Swedish adolescents in a period of diverging trends, and to investigate if cannabis and alcohol act as complements or substitutes. Data comprise a nationally representative annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish 9th-grade students (aged 15-16 years) covering years 1989-2016 (n = 149 603). Alcohol and cannabis use were measured concurrently and alcohol consumption was measured in litres of 100% alcohol per year. Frequency of cannabis use was transformed into a mean using category mid-points. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series analysis was used to estimate the association between cannabis and alcohol use. To elucidate changes in the association during the study period, two subperiods (2000-16 and 1989-99) were analysed. There was a positive and statistically significant association between changes in alcohol consumption and changes in frequency of cannabis use among cannabis users for the period 1989-2016. A 1-litre increase in mean alcohol consumption was associated with a 0.28 increase in frequency of cannabis use (P = 0.010). The corresponding increase for the period 1989-99 was 0.52 (P = 0.003). When restricting the analysis to 2000-16, the association was not statistically significant (P = 0.735). When analysing all adolescents we found no statistically significant association between changes in alcohol consumption and changes in frequency of cannabis use. From 1989 to 2016 there appears to be a positive association between alcohol and cannabis consumption among Swedish adolescents who use cannabis. This association seems to have become weaker over time, suggesting that alcohol and cannabis are neither substitutes nor complements among Swedish adolescents and that the recent decline in youth drinking is not associated with the increase in frequency of cannabis use. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergant, Klemen; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

2002-02-01

Phenological observations are a valuable source of information for investigating the relationship between climate variation and plant development. Potential climate change in the future will shift the occurrence of phenological phases. Information about future climate conditions is needed in order to estimate this shift. General circulation models (GCM) provide the best information about future climate change. They are able to simulate reliably the most important mean features on a large scale, but they fail on a regional scale because of their low spatial resolution. A common approach to bridging the scale gap is statistical downscaling, which was used to relate the beginning of flowering of Taraxacum officinale in Slovenia with the monthly mean near-surface air temperature for January, February and March in Central Europe. Statistical models were developed and tested with NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis predictor data and EARS predictand data for the period 1960-1999. Prior to developing statistical models, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed on the predictor data. Multiple linear regression was used to relate the beginning of flowering with expansion coefficients of the first three EOF for the Janauary, Febrauary and March air temperatures, and a strong correlation was found between them. Developed statistical models were employed on the results of two GCM (HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) to estimate the potential shifts in the beginning of flowering for the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2049 in comparison with the period 1960-1989. The HadCM3 model predicts, on average, 4 days earlier occurrence and ECHAM4/OPYC3 5 days earlier occurrence of flowering in the period 1990-2019. The analogous results for the period 2020-2049 are a 10- and 11-day earlier occurrence.

Volcanic ash and daily mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic volcano eruption of May 2011.

PubMed

Oudin, Anna; Carlsen, Hanne K; Forsberg, Bertil; Johansson, Christer

2013-12-10

In the aftermath of the Icelandic volcano Grimsvötn's eruption on 21 May 2011, volcanic ash reached Northern Europe. Elevated levels of ambient particles (PM) were registered in mid Sweden. The aim of the present study was to investigate if the Grimsvötn eruption had an effect on mortality in Sweden. Based on PM measurements at 16 sites across Sweden, data were classified into an ash exposed data set (Ash area) and an unexposed data set (No ash area). Data on daily all-cause mortality were obtained from Statistics Sweden for the time period 1 April through 31 July 2011. Mortality ratios were calculated as the ratio between the daily number of deaths in the Ash area and the No ash area. The exposure period was defined as the week following the days with elevated particle concentrations, namely 24 May through 31 May. The control period was defined as 1 April through 23 May and 1 June through 31 July. There was no absolute increase in mortality during the exposure period. However, during the exposure period the mean mortality ratio was 2.42 compared with 2.17 during the control period, implying a relatively higher number of deaths in the Ash area than in the No ash area. The differences in ratios were mostly due to a single day, 31 May, and were not statistically significant when tested with a Mann-Whitney non-parametric test (p > 0.3). The statistical power was low with only 8 days in the exposure period (24 May through 31 May). Assuming that the observed relative differences were not due to chance, the results would imply an increase of 128 deaths during the exposure period 24-31 May. If 31 May was excluded, the number of extra deaths was reduced to 20. The results of the present study are contradicting and inconclusive, but may indicate that all-cause mortality was increased by the ash-fall from the Grimsvötn eruption. Meta-analysis or pooled analysis of data from neighboring countries might make it possible to reach sufficient statistical power to study effects of the Grimsvötn ash on morbidity and mortality. Such studies would be of particular importance for European societies preparing for future large scale volcanic eruptions in Iceland.

Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011

PubMed Central

Oudin, Anna; Carlsen, Hanne K.; Forsberg, Bertil; Johansson, Christer

2013-01-01

In the aftermath of the Icelandic volcano Grimsvötn’s eruption on 21 May 2011, volcanic ash reached Northern Europe. Elevated levels of ambient particles (PM) were registered in mid Sweden. The aim of the present study was to investigate if the Grimsvötn eruption had an effect on mortality in Sweden. Based on PM measurements at 16 sites across Sweden, data were classified into an ash exposed data set (Ash area) and an unexposed data set (No ash area). Data on daily all-cause mortality were obtained from Statistics Sweden for the time period 1 April through 31 July 2011. Mortality ratios were calculated as the ratio between the daily number of deaths in the Ash area and the No ash area. The exposure period was defined as the week following the days with elevated particle concentrations, namely 24 May through 31 May. The control period was defined as 1 April through 23 May and 1 June through 31 July. There was no absolute increase in mortality during the exposure period. However, during the exposure period the mean mortality ratio was 2.42 compared with 2.17 during the control period, implying a relatively higher number of deaths in the Ash area than in the No ash area. The differences in ratios were mostly due to a single day, 31 May, and were not statistically significant when tested with a Mann-Whitney non-parametric test (p > 0.3). The statistical power was low with only 8 days in the exposure period (24 May through 31 May). Assuming that the observed relative differences were not due to chance, the results would imply an increase of 128 deaths during the exposure period 24–31 May. If 31 May was excluded, the number of extra deaths was reduced to 20. The results of the present study are contradicting and inconclusive, but may indicate that all-cause mortality was increased by the ash-fall from the Grimsvötn eruption. Meta-analysis or pooled analysis of data from neighboring countries might make it possible to reach sufficient statistical power to study effects of the Grimsvötn ash on morbidity and mortality. Such studies would be of particular importance for European societies preparing for future large scale volcanic eruptions in Iceland. PMID:24336019

Oral cavity cancer trends over the past 25 years in Hong Kong: a multidirectional statistical analysis.

PubMed

Ushida, Keisuke; McGrath, Colman P; Lo, Edward C M; Zwahlen, Roger A

2015-07-24

Even though oral cavity cancer (OCC; ICD 10 codes C01, C02, C03, C04, C05, and C06) ranks eleventh among the world's most common cancers, accounting for approximately 2 % of all cancers, a trend analysis of OCC in Hong Kong is lacking. Hong Kong has experienced rapid economic growth with socio-cultural and environmental change after the Second World War. This together with the collected data in the cancer registry provides interesting ground for an epidemiological study on the influence of socio-cultural and environmental factors on OCC etiology. A multidirectional statistical analysis of the OCC trends over the past 25 years was performed using the databases of the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. The age, period, and cohort (APC) modeling was applied to determine age, period, and cohort effects on OCC development. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to find secular trend changes of both age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates. The APC model detected that OCC development in men was mainly dominated by the age effect, whereas in women an increasing linear period effect together with an age effect became evident. The joinpoint regression analysis showed a general downward trend of age-standardized incidence rates of OCC for men during the entire investigated period, whereas women demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2001 onwards. The results suggest that OCC incidence in Hong Kong appears to be associated with cumulative risk behaviors of the population, despite considerable socio-cultural and environmental changes after the Second World War.

Total replacement of corn by mesquite pod meal considering nutritional value, performance, feeding behavior, nitrogen balance, and microbial protein synthesis of Holstein-Zebu crossbred dairy steers.

PubMed

de Oliveira Moraes, Gláucia Sabrine; de Souza, Evaristo Jorge Oliveira; Véras, Antonia Sherlânea Chaves; de Paula Almeida, Marina; da Cunha, Márcio Vieira; Torres, Thaysa Rodrigues; da Silva, Camila Sousa; Pereira, Gerfesson Felipe Cavalcanti

2016-10-01

The objective of the present study to assess the effects of mesquite pod addition replacing corn (0, 250, 500, 750, and 1000 g/kg in the dry matter basis) on nutrient intake, animal performance, feeding behavior, nutrient digestibility, nitrogen balance, and microbial protein synthesis. Twenty-five Holstein-Zebu crossbred dairy steers at 219 ± 22 kg initial body weight and 18 months of age were used. The experiment lasted 84 days, divided into three periods of 28 days. A completely randomized design was used, and data were submitted to analysis using PROC GLM for analysis of variance and PROC REG for regression analysis using the software Statistical Analysis Systems version 9.1. Experimental diets were composed of Tifton 85 hay, soybean meal, ground corn, mesquite pod meal, and mineral salt. Samples of food offered were collected during the last 3 days of each period, and the leftovers were collected daily, with samples bulked per week. At the end of each 28-day period, the remaining animals were weighed to determine total weight gain and average daily gain. The assessment of behavioral patterns was performed through instantaneous scans in 5-min intervals for three consecutive 12-h days. A single urine sample from each animal was collected on the last day of each collection period at about 4 h after the first feeding. The replacement of corn by mesquite pod meal did not significantly influence treatments regarding nutrients intake, animal performance, and feeding behavior. Retained and consumed nitrogen ratio did not statistically differ between replacement levels. Likewise, there were no statistical differences regarding microbial protein synthesis and efficiency between replacement levels. Mesquite pod meal can be used in Holstein-Zebu crossbred dairy steers' diet with total corn replacement.

On the Helicity in 3D-Periodic Navier-Stokes Equations II: The Statistical Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foias, Ciprian; Hoang, Luan; Nicolaenko, Basil

2009-09-01

We study the asymptotic behavior of the statistical solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations using the normalization map [9]. It is then applied to the study of mean energy, mean dissipation rate of energy, and mean helicity of the spatial periodic flows driven by potential body forces. The statistical distribution of the asymptotic Beltrami flows are also investigated. We connect our mathematical analysis with the empirical theory of decaying turbulence. With appropriate mathematically defined ensemble averages, the Kolmogorov universal features are shown to be transient in time. We provide an estimate for the time interval in which those features may still be present. Our collaborator and friend Basil Nicolaenko passed away in September of 2007, after this work was completed. Honoring his contribution and friendship, we dedicate this article to him.

Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Brenčič, Mihael

2016-01-01

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899–2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future. PMID:27116375

Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Brenčič, Mihael

2016-01-01

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899-2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future.

Summary and analysis of water-quality data for the Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuge, east-central North Dakota, 1987-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Hiemenz, Gregory

2009-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation collected water-quality samples at 16 sites on the James River and the Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuge, N. Dak., as part of its refuge-monitoring program from 1987-93 and as part of an environmental impact statement commitment from 1999-2004. Climatic and hydrologic conditions varied greatly during both sampling periods. The first period was dominated by drought conditions, which abruptly changed to cooler and wetter conditions in 1992-93. During the second period, conditions were near normal to very wet and included higher inflow from the James River into the refuge. The two periods also differed in the sites sampled, seasons sampled, and properties and constituent concentrations measured. Summary statistics were reported separately for the two sampling periods for all physical properties and constituents. Nonparametric statistical tests were used to further analyze some of the water-quality data. During the first sampling period, 1987-93, specific conductance, turbidity, hardness, alkalinity, total dissolved solids, total suspended solids, nonvolatile suspended solids, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, sulfate, chloride, phosphate, total phosphorus, total organic carbon, chlorophyll a, and arsenic were determined to have significantly different medians among the sites tested. During the second sampling period, 1999-2004, the medians of pH, sodium, chloride, barium, and boron varied significantly among sites. Sites sampled and period of record varied between the two sampling periods and the period of record varied among the sites. Also, some constituents analyzed during the first period (1987-93) were not analyzed during the second period (1999-2004), and winter sampling was done during the second sampling period only. This variability reduces the number of direct comparisons that can be made between the two periods. Three sites had complete periods of record for both sampling periods and were compared. Differences in variability and median concentration were identified between the two time periods. Sites representing inflow to the refuge and outflow were compared statistically for the period when data were available for both sites, 1999-2004. Of the nutrients tested - ammonia plus organic nitrogen, phosphate, and total phosphorus - no significant statistical differences were found between the inflow samples and the outflow samples. Statistically significant differences were found for pH, sulfate, chloride, barium, and manganese. Nutrients are of particular interest in the refuge because of the aquatic plant and animal life and the use of the wetland resources by waterfowl. However, the nutrient data were highly censored and there were differences in the seasonal timing of sample collection between the two sampling periods. Therefore, the nutrient data were examined graphically with stripplots that highlighted differences in the seasonal timing of sample collection and concentration differences likely related to the differences in climatic and hydrologic conditions between the two periods.

Statistical analysis of large wildfires

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Robert J. Jr. Huggett; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

Large, infrequent wildfires cause dramatic ecological and economic impacts. Consequently, they deserve special attention and analysis. The economic significance of large fires is indicated by the fact that approximately 94 percent of fire suppression costs on U.S. Forest Service land during the period 1980-2002 resulted from a mere 1.4 percent of the fires (Strategic...

Analysis Tools (AT)

Treesearch

Larry J. Gangi

2006-01-01

The FIREMON Analysis Tools program is designed to let the user perform grouped or ungrouped summary calculations of single measurement plot data, or statistical comparisons of grouped or ungrouped plot data taken at different sampling periods. The program allows the user to create reports and graphs, save and print them, or cut and paste them into a word processor....

Pancreatic cancer death rates by race among US men and women, 1970-2009.

PubMed

Ma, Jiemin; Siegel, Rebecca; Jemal, Ahmedin

2013-11-20

Few studies have examined trends in pancreatic cancer death rates in the United States, and there have been no studies examining recent trends using age-period-cohort analysis. Annual percentage change in pancreatic cancer death rates was calculated for 1970 to 2009 by sex and race among adults aged 35 to 84 years using US mortality data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and Joinpoint Regression. Age-period-cohort modeling was performed to evaluate the changes in cohort and period effects. All statistical tests were two-sided. In white men, pancreatic cancer death rates decreased by 0.7% per year from 1970 to 1995 and then increased by 0.4% per year through 2009. Among white women, rates increased slightly from 1970 to 1984, stabilized until the late 1990s, then increased by 0.5% per year through 2009. In contrast, the rates among blacks increased between 1970 and the late 1980s (women) or early 1990s (men) and then decreased thereafter. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that pancreatic cancer death risk was highest for the 1900 to 1910 birth cohort in men and the 1920 to 1930 birth cohort in women and there was a statistically significant increase in period effects since the late 1990s in both white men and white women (two-sided Wald test, P < .001). In the United States, whites and blacks experienced opposite trends in pancreatic cancer death rates between 1970 and 2009 that are largely unexplainable by known risk factors. This study underscores the needs for urgent action to curb the increasing trends of pancreatic cancer in whites and for better understanding of the etiology of this disease.

A Systems Analysis of the Library and Information Science Statistical Data System: The Preliminary Study. Interim Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamburg, Morris; And Others

The long-term goal of this investigation is to design and establish a national model for a system of library statistical data. This is a report on The Preliminary Study which was carried out over an 11-month period ending May, 1969. The objective of The Preliminary Study was to design and delimit The Research Investigation in the most efficient…

OSPAR standard method and software for statistical analysis of beach litter data.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; van Loon, Willem; Fleet, David M; Baggelaar, Paul; van der Meulen, Eit

2017-09-15

The aim of this study is to develop standard statistical methods and software for the analysis of beach litter data. The optimal ensemble of statistical methods comprises the Mann-Kendall trend test, the Theil-Sen slope estimation, the Wilcoxon step trend test and basic descriptive statistics. The application of Litter Analyst, a tailor-made software for analysing the results of beach litter surveys, to OSPAR beach litter data from seven beaches bordering on the south-eastern North Sea, revealed 23 significant trends in the abundances of beach litter types for the period 2009-2014. Litter Analyst revealed a large variation in the abundance of litter types between beaches. To reduce the effects of spatial variation, trend analysis of beach litter data can most effectively be performed at the beach or national level. Spatial aggregation of beach litter data within a region is possible, but resulted in a considerable reduction in the number of significant trends. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical inference of dynamic resting-state functional connectivity using hierarchical observation modeling.

PubMed

Sojoudi, Alireza; Goodyear, Bradley G

2016-12-01

Spontaneous fluctuations of blood-oxygenation level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD fMRI) signals are highly synchronous between brain regions that serve similar functions. This provides a means to investigate functional networks; however, most analysis techniques assume functional connections are constant over time. This may be problematic in the case of neurological disease, where functional connections may be highly variable. Recently, several methods have been proposed to determine moment-to-moment changes in the strength of functional connections over an imaging session (so called dynamic connectivity). Here a novel analysis framework based on a hierarchical observation modeling approach was proposed, to permit statistical inference of the presence of dynamic connectivity. A two-level linear model composed of overlapping sliding windows of fMRI signals, incorporating the fact that overlapping windows are not independent was described. To test this approach, datasets were synthesized whereby functional connectivity was either constant (significant or insignificant) or modulated by an external input. The method successfully determines the statistical significance of a functional connection in phase with the modulation, and it exhibits greater sensitivity and specificity in detecting regions with variable connectivity, when compared with sliding-window correlation analysis. For real data, this technique possesses greater reproducibility and provides a more discriminative estimate of dynamic connectivity than sliding-window correlation analysis. Hum Brain Mapp 37:4566-4580, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On the implications of the classical ergodic theorems: analysis of developmental processes has to focus on intra-individual variation.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M

2008-01-01

It is argued that general mathematical-statistical theorems imply that standard statistical analysis techniques of inter-individual variation are invalid to investigate developmental processes. Developmental processes have to be analyzed at the level of individual subjects, using time series data characterizing the patterns of intra-individual variation. It is shown that standard statistical techniques based on the analysis of inter-individual variation appear to be insensitive to the presence of arbitrary large degrees of inter-individual heterogeneity in the population. An important class of nonlinear epigenetic models of neural growth is described which can explain the occurrence of such heterogeneity in brain structures and behavior. Links with models of developmental instability are discussed. A simulation study based on a chaotic growth model illustrates the invalidity of standard analysis of inter-individual variation, whereas time series analysis of intra-individual variation is able to recover the true state of affairs. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Temporal Variability of Upper-level Winds at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2014-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind profiles to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments incorporate wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the upper-level winds over the time period between the assessment and launch can be mitigated by a statistical analysis of wind change over time periods of interest using historical data from the launch range. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility were developed for use in upper-level wind assessments. Database development procedures as well as statistical analysis of temporal wind variability at each launch range will be presented.

Uncertainty Analysis of Inertial Model Attitude Sensor Calibration and Application with a Recommended New Calibration Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripp, John S.; Tcheng, Ping

1999-01-01

Statistical tools, previously developed for nonlinear least-squares estimation of multivariate sensor calibration parameters and the associated calibration uncertainty analysis, have been applied to single- and multiple-axis inertial model attitude sensors used in wind tunnel testing to measure angle of attack and roll angle. The analysis provides confidence and prediction intervals of calibrated sensor measurement uncertainty as functions of applied input pitch and roll angles. A comparative performance study of various experimental designs for inertial sensor calibration is presented along with corroborating experimental data. The importance of replicated calibrations over extended time periods has been emphasized; replication provides independent estimates of calibration precision and bias uncertainties, statistical tests for calibration or modeling bias uncertainty, and statistical tests for sensor parameter drift over time. A set of recommendations for a new standardized model attitude sensor calibration method and usage procedures is included. The statistical information provided by these procedures is necessary for the uncertainty analysis of aerospace test results now required by users of industrial wind tunnel test facilities.

Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. This manuscript explores various methods of assessing the transition between alternative states in an ecological system described by a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset.

Investigation of Mechanisms Underlying Odor Recognition.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-02-01

have obtained recordings of the EOG from the cribriform plate (through which the olfactory receptor nerves pass from the epithelium to the bulb...preinjection period, postinjection period) by 5 (2 day trial blocks during both periods = 10 total days). The results of this statistical analysis are... Total ,11.296 119 Between Ss 6.230 11 ---- Groups 0.928 1 0.928 1.750 ns Error 5.302 10 .0,530 Within Ss 5.066 108 Injection 0.213 1 0.213 1.507 ns

Statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; O'Shea, Padraic S.; Weber, Jared R.; Nguyen, Kevin T.; Montgomery, Nicholas L.; Simonson, Adrian J.

2016-01-04

Statistical summaries of streamflow data collected at 184 streamgages in Iowa are presented in this report. All streamgages included for analysis have at least 10 years of continuous record collected before or through September 2013. This report is an update to two previously published reports that presented statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 1988 and September 1996. The statistical summaries include (1) monthly and annual flow durations, (2) annual exceedance probabilities of instantaneous peak discharges (flood frequencies), (3) annual exceedance probabilities of high discharges, and (4) annual nonexceedance probabilities of low discharges and seasonal low discharges. Also presented for each streamgage are graphs of the annual mean discharges, mean annual mean discharges, 50-percent annual flow-duration discharges (median flows), harmonic mean flows, mean daily mean discharges, and flow-duration curves. Two sets of statistical summaries are presented for each streamgage, which include (1) long-term statistics for the entire period of streamflow record and (2) recent-term statistics for or during the 30-year period of record from 1984 to 2013. The recent-term statistics are only calculated for streamgages with streamflow records pre-dating the 1984 water year and with at least 10 years of record during 1984–2013. The streamflow statistics in this report are not adjusted for the effects of water use; although some of this water is used consumptively, most of it is returned to the streams.

Clinical and statistical evaluation of the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction in the cold inland area of Hokkaido.

PubMed

Hirasawa, K; Shibata, J; Yamamura, K

1989-07-01

We made a clinical and statistical evaluation of the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction with respect to the relation between its occurrence and the meterology of the cold inland area of Hokkaido (the Kamikawa Basin) over a period of 10 years (1976-1985). A total of 581 cases were studied. Monthly fluctuation of incidence was not found to be statistically significant. A cold period in the Kamikawa Basin was defined in this study as the period when ordinary mean atmospheric temperatures were below 0 degree C (from 7 Nov. to 16 Apr.). Canonical discriminant analysis was applied to 10 meterological factors between the days with occurrences and those without occurrences (245 days vs 245 days) in the cold periods of the investigated 10 years, and between the days with outdoor occurrences and those without occurrences (37 days vs 37 days). In order to compare the regional difference, this analysis was done on the same 10 factors for the cold periods over 3 years in Yamagata (46 days vs 46 days). The F values of 0.0003, 0.0155 and 0.0098 respectively in the above 3 analyses were small (much less than F 1(9) (0.25) = 1.51). A circadian rhythm of 2 cycles/day was recognized concerning the time of occurrence by power spectral analysis of the data of 562 patients for whom the time of the onset of myocardial infarction was known. Subdividing the patients into 2 groups according to physical activity just before the occurrence, the group who experienced an occurrence at rest showed a rhythm of 1 cycle/day, and the group who experienced an occurrence on effort showed a rhythm of 2 cycles/day. Therefore, the 10 meterological factors could not discriminate the probabilities between the days with occurrences and the days without occurrences of myocardial infarction in the cold periods. On the other hand, it was suggested that biological intrinsic rhythm participates in triggering the occurrence of myocardial infarction.

Effects of suvorexant, an orexin receptor antagonist, on sleep parameters as measured by polysomnography in healthy men.

PubMed

Sun, Hong; Kennedy, William P; Wilbraham, Darren; Lewis, Nicole; Calder, Nicole; Li, Xiaodong; Ma, Junshui; Yee, Ka Lai; Ermlich, Susan; Mangin, Eric; Lines, Christopher; Rosen, Laura; Chodakewitz, Jeffrey; Murphy, Gail M

2013-02-01

Suvorexant (MK-4305) is an orexin receptor antagonist being developed for the treatment of insomnia. This report describes the effects of nighttime administration of suvorexant on polysomnography (PSG) sleep parameters in healthy young men. Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 4-period crossover PSG study, followed by an additional 5(th) period to assess pharmacokinetics. Sleep laboratory. Healthy young men between 18 and 45 years of age (22 enrolled, 19 completed). Periods 1-4: suvorexant (10 mg, 50 mg, or 100 mg) or placebo 1 h before nighttime PSG recording. Period 5: suvorexant 10 mg, 50 mg, or 100 mg. In Periods 1-4, overnight sleep parameters were recorded by PSG and next-morning residual effects were assessed by psychomotor performance tests and subjective assessments. Statistically significant sleep-promoting effects were observed with all doses of suvorexant compared to placebo. Suvorexant 50 mg and 100 mg significantly decreased latency to persistent sleep and wake after sleep onset time, and increased sleep efficiency. Suvorexant 10 mg significantly decreased wake after sleep onset time. There were no statistically significant effects of suvorexant on EEG frequency bands including delta (slow wave) activity based on power spectral analysis. Suvorexant was well tolerated. There was no evidence of next-day residual effects for suvorexant 10 mg. Suvorexant 50 mg statistically significantly reduced subjective alertness, and suvorexant 100 mg significantly increased reaction time and reduced subjective alertness. There were no statistically significant effects of any suvorexant dose on digit symbol substitution test performance. In Period 5, plasma samples of suvorexant were collected for pharmacokinetic evaluation. The median T(max) was 3 hours and apparent terminal t(½) was 9-13 hours. In healthy young men without sleep disorders, suvorexant promoted sleep with some evidence of residual effects at the highest doses.

A time series analysis performed on a 25-year period of kidney transplantation activity in a single center.

PubMed

Santori, G; Fontana, I; Bertocchi, M; Gasloli, G; Valente, U

2010-05-01

Following the example of many Western countries, where a "minimum volume rule" policy has been adopted as a quality parameter for complex surgical procedures, the Italian National Transplant Centre set the minimum number of kidney transplantation procedures/y at 30/center. The number of procedures performed in a single center over a large period may be treated as a time series to evaluate trends, seasonal cycles, and nonsystematic fluctuations. Between January 1, 1983, and December 31, 2007, we performed 1376 procedures in adult or pediatric recipients from living or cadaveric donors. The greatest numbers of cases/y were performed in 1998 (n = 86) followed by 2004 (n = 82), 1996 (n = 75), and 2003 (n = 73). A time series analysis performed using R Statistical Software (Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria), a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics, showed a whole incremental trend after exponential smoothing as well as after seasonal decomposition. However, starting from 2005, we observed a decreased trend in the series. The number of kidney transplants expected to be performed for 2008 by using the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing applied to the period 1983 to 2007 suggested 58 procedures, while in that year there were 52. The time series approach may be helpful to establish a minimum volume/y at a single-center level. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical Analysis of Deflation in Covariance and Resultant Pc Values for AQUA, AURA and TERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasan, Syed O.

2016-01-01

This presentation will display statistical analysis performed for raw conjunction CDMs received for the EOS Aqua, Aura and Terra satellites within the period of February 2015 through July 2016. The analysis performed indicates a discernable deflation in covariance calculated at the JSpOC after the utilization of the dynamic drag consider parameter was implemented operationally in May 2015. As a result, the overall diminution in the conjunction plane intersection of the primary and secondary objects appears to be leading to reduced probability of collision (Pc) values for these conjunction events. This presentation also displays evidence for this theory with analysis of Pc trending plots using data calculated by the SpaceNav CRMS system.

On the application of the Principal Component Analysis for an efficient climate downscaling of surface wind fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, Roberto; Lozano, Sergio; Correia, Pedro; Sanz-Rodrigo, Javier; Probst, Oliver

2013-04-01

With the purpose of efficiently and reliably generating long-term wind resource maps for the wind energy industry, the application and verification of a statistical methodology for the climate downscaling of wind fields at surface level is presented in this work. This procedure is based on the combination of the Monte Carlo and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) statistical methods. Firstly the Monte Carlo method is used to create a huge number of daily-based annual time series, so called climate representative years, by the stratified sampling of a 33-year-long time series corresponding to the available period of the NCAR/NCEP global reanalysis data set (R-2). Secondly the representative years are evaluated such that the best set is chosen according to its capability to recreate the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) temporal and spatial fields from the R-2 data set. The measure of this correspondence is based on the Euclidean distance between the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) spaces generated by the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) decomposition of the SLP fields from both the long-term and the representative year data sets. The methodology was verified by comparing the selected 365-days period against a 9-year period of wind fields generated by dynamical downscaling the Global Forecast System data with the mesoscale model SKIRON for the Iberian Peninsula. These results showed that, compared to the traditional method of dynamical downscaling any random 365-days period, the error in the average wind velocity by the PCA's representative year was reduced by almost 30%. Moreover the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) in the monthly and daily wind profiles were also reduced by almost 25% along all SKIRON grid points. These results showed also that the methodology presented maximum error values in the wind speed mean of 0.8 m/s and maximum MAE in the monthly curves of 0.7 m/s. Besides the bulk numbers, this work shows the spatial distribution of the errors across the Iberian domain and additional wind statistics such as the velocity and directional frequency. Additional repetitions were performed to prove the reliability and robustness of this kind-of statistical-dynamical downscaling method.

Statistical analysis of Geopotential Height (GH) timeseries based on Tsallis non-extensive statistical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, L. P.; Iliopoulos, A. C.; Pavlos, E. G.; Pavlos, G. P.

2018-02-01

In this paper, we perform statistical analysis of time series deriving from Earth's climate. The time series are concerned with Geopotential Height (GH) and correspond to temporal and spatial components of the global distribution of month average values, during the period (1948-2012). The analysis is based on Tsallis non-extensive statistical mechanics and in particular on the estimation of Tsallis' q-triplet, namely {qstat, qsens, qrel}, the reconstructed phase space and the estimation of correlation dimension and the Hurst exponent of rescaled range analysis (R/S). The deviation of Tsallis q-triplet from unity indicates non-Gaussian (Tsallis q-Gaussian) non-extensive character with heavy tails probability density functions (PDFs), multifractal behavior and long range dependences for all timeseries considered. Also noticeable differences of the q-triplet estimation found in the timeseries at distinct local or temporal regions. Moreover, in the reconstructive phase space revealed a lower-dimensional fractal set in the GH dynamical phase space (strong self-organization) and the estimation of Hurst exponent indicated multifractality, non-Gaussianity and persistence. The analysis is giving significant information identifying and characterizing the dynamical characteristics of the earth's climate.

Factors Affecting the Mental Development of Very Low Birthweight Infants: An Evaluation Based Primarily on Covariance Structure Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Honjo, Shuji; And Others

1998-01-01

Evaluated statistically the effect of intranatal and early postnatal period factors on mental development of very low-birth-weight infants. Covariance structure analysis revealed direct influence of birth weight and gestational age in weeks on mental development at age 1, and of opthalmological aberrations and respirator disorder on mental…

Analysis paralysis

Treesearch

Bill Block

2012-01-01

I have been Editor-in-Chief for about 10 months now. Over that period of time, I have processed hundreds of manuscripts and considered hundreds of reviews. In doing so, I have noticed an emphasis on analysis at the expense of a better understanding of the ecological system under study. I mention this not to belittle statistical advances made within various disciplines...

Experience in the management of ECMO therapy as a mortality risk factor.

PubMed

Guilló Moreno, V; Gutiérrez Martínez, A; Romero Berrocal, A; Sánchez Castilla, M; García-Fernández, J

2018-02-01

The extracorporeal oxygenation membrane (ECMO) is a system that provides circulatory and respiratory assistance to patients in cardiac or respiratory failure refractory to conventional treatment. It is a therapy with numerous associated complications and high mortality. Multidisciplinary management and experienced teams increase survival. Our purpose is to evaluate and analyse the effect of the learning curve on mortality. Retrospective and observational study of 31 patients, from January 2012 to December 2015. Patients were separated into 2periods. These periods were divided by the establishment of an ECMO protocol. We compared the quantitative variables by performing the Mann-Whitney U test. For the categorical qualitative variables we performed the chi-square test or Fisher exact statistic as appropriate. The survival curve was computed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the analysis of statistical significance using the Log-rank test. Data analysis was performed with the STATA programme 14. Survival curves show the tendency to lower mortality in the subsequent period (P=0.0601). The overall mortality rate in the initial period was higher than in the subsequent period (P=0.042). In another analysis, we compared the characteristics of the 2groups and concluded that they were homogeneous. The degree of experience is an independent factor for mortality. The application of a care protocol is fundamental to facilitate the management of ECMO therapy. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raggad, Bechir

2018-05-01

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

Use of generalized ordered logistic regression for the analysis of multidrug resistance data.

PubMed

Agga, Getahun E; Scott, H Morgan

2015-10-01

Statistical analysis of antimicrobial resistance data largely focuses on individual antimicrobial's binary outcome (susceptible or resistant). However, bacteria are becoming increasingly multidrug resistant (MDR). Statistical analysis of MDR data is mostly descriptive often with tabular or graphical presentations. Here we report the applicability of generalized ordinal logistic regression model for the analysis of MDR data. A total of 1,152 Escherichia coli, isolated from the feces of weaned pigs experimentally supplemented with chlortetracycline (CTC) and copper, were tested for susceptibilities against 15 antimicrobials and were binary classified into resistant or susceptible. The 15 antimicrobial agents tested were grouped into eight different antimicrobial classes. We defined MDR as the number of antimicrobial classes to which E. coli isolates were resistant ranging from 0 to 8. Proportionality of the odds assumption of the ordinal logistic regression model was violated only for the effect of treatment period (pre-treatment, during-treatment and post-treatment); but not for the effect of CTC or copper supplementation. Subsequently, a partially constrained generalized ordinal logistic model was built that allows for the effect of treatment period to vary while constraining the effects of treatment (CTC and copper supplementation) to be constant across the levels of MDR classes. Copper (Proportional Odds Ratio [Prop OR]=1.03; 95% CI=0.73-1.47) and CTC (Prop OR=1.1; 95% CI=0.78-1.56) supplementation were not significantly associated with the level of MDR adjusted for the effect of treatment period. MDR generally declined over the trial period. In conclusion, generalized ordered logistic regression can be used for the analysis of ordinal data such as MDR data when the proportionality assumptions for ordered logistic regression are violated. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Investigation of shift in decay hazard (Scheffer) index values over the period 1969-2008 in the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Patricia K. Lebow; Charles G. Carll

2010-01-01

A statistical analysis was performed that identified time trends in the Scheffer Index value for 167 locations in the conterminous United States over the period 1969-2008. Year-to-year variation in Index values was found to be larger than year-to-year variation in most other weather parameters. Despite the substantial yearly variation, regression equations, with time (...

Water-quality trends and constituent-transport analysis for selected sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site in the upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, water years 1996–2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2016-07-20

During the extended history of mining in the upper Clark Fork Basin in Montana, large amounts of waste materials enriched with metallic contaminants (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc) and the metalloid trace element arsenic were generated from mining operations near Butte and milling and smelting operations near Anaconda. Extensive deposition of mining wastes in the Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork channels and flood plains had substantial effects on water quality. Federal Superfund remediation activities in the upper Clark Fork Basin began in 1983 and have included substantial remediation near Butte and removal of the former Milltown Dam near Missoula. To aid in evaluating the effects of remediation activities on water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey began collecting streamflow and water-quality data in the upper Clark Fork Basin in the 1980s.Trend analysis was done on specific conductance, selected trace elements (arsenic, copper, and zinc), and suspended sediment for seven sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site for water years 1996–2015. The most upstream site included in trend analysis is Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs, Montana (sampling site 8), and the most downstream site is Clark Fork above Missoula, Montana (sampling site 22), which is just downstream from the former Milltown Dam. Water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. Trend analysis was done by using a joint time-series model for concentration and streamflow. To provide temporal resolution of changes in water quality, trend analysis was conducted for four sequential 5-year periods: period 1 (water years 1996–2000), period 2 (water years 2001–5), period 3 (water years 2006–10), and period 4 (water years 2011–15). Because of the substantial effect of the intentional breach of Milltown Dam on March 28, 2008, period 3 was subdivided into period 3A (October 1, 2005–March 27, 2008) and period 3B (March 28, 2008–September 30, 2010) for the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22). Trend results were considered statistically significant when the statistical probability level was less than 0.01.In conjunction with the trend analysis, estimated normalized constituent loads (hereinafter referred to as “loads”) were calculated and presented within the framework of a constituent-transport analysis to assess the temporal trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) in the context of sources and transport. The transport analysis allows assessment of temporal changes in relative contributions from upstream source areas to loads transported past each reach outflow.Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper decreased at the sampling sites from the start of period 1 through the end of period 4; the decreases ranged from large for one sampling site (Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs [sampling site 8]) to moderate for two sampling sites (Clark Fork near Galen, Montana [sampling site 11] and Clark Fork above Missoula [sampling site 22]) to small for four sampling sites (Clark Fork at Deer Lodge, Montana [sampling site 14], Clark Fork at Goldcreek, Montana [sampling site 16], Clark Fork near Drummond, Montana [sampling site 18], and Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner, Montana [sampling site 20]). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling sites 8 and 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant.Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from minor (sampling sites 8–20) to small (sampling site 22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for sampling site 8 and near statistically significant decreases for sampling site 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant.Trend results indicate that FACs of suspended sediment decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from moderate (sampling site 8) to small (sampling sites 11–22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the changes in FACs of suspended sediment were not statistically significant for any sampling sites.The reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge is a large source of metallic contaminants and suspended sediment, which strongly affects downstream transport of those constituents. Mobilization of copper and suspended sediment from flood-plain tailings and the streambed of the Clark Fork and its tributaries within the reach results in a contribution of those constituents that is proportionally much larger than the contribution of streamflow from within the reach. Within the reach from Galen to Deer Lodge, unfiltered-recoverable copper loads increased by a factor of about 4 and suspended-sediment loads increased by a factor of about 5, whereas streamflow increased by a factor of slightly less than 2. For period 4 (water years 2011–15), unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended-sediment loads sourced from within the reach accounted for about 41 and 14 percent, respectively, of the loads at Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22), whereas streamflow sourced from within the reach accounted for about 4 percent of the streamflow at sampling site 22. During water years 1996–2015, decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment for the reach generally were proportionally smaller than for most other reaches.Unfiltered-recoverable copper loads sourced within the reaches of the Clark Fork between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner (just upstream from the former Milltown Dam) were proportionally smaller than contributions of streamflow sourced from within the reaches; these reaches contributed proportionally much less to copper loading in the Clark Fork than the reach between Galen and Deer Lodge. Although substantial decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment were indicated for Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs (sampling site 8), those substantial decreases were not translated to downstream reaches between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner. The effect of the reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge as a large source of copper and suspended sediment, in combination with little temporal change in those constituents for the reach, contributes to this pattern.With the removal of the former Milltown Dam in 2008, substantial amounts of contaminated sediments that remained in the Clark Fork channel and flood plain in reach 9 (downstream from Turah Bridge near Bonner) became more available for mobilization and transport than before the dam removal. After the removal of the former Milltown Dam, the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22) had statistically significant decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper in period 3B (March 28, 2008, through water year 2010) that continued in period 4 (water years 2011–15). Also, decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic and suspended sediment were indicated for period 4 at this site. The decrease in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling site 22 during period 4 was proportionally much larger than the decrease for the Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner (sampling site 20). Net mobilization of unfiltered-recoverable copper and arsenic from sources within reach 9 are smaller for period 4 than for period 1 when the former Milltown Dam was in place, providing evidence that contaminant source materials have been substantially reduced in reach 9.

Analysis of mortality data from the former USSR: age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Willekens, F; Scherbov, S

1992-01-01

The objective of this article is to review research on age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of mortality and to trace the effects of contemporary and historical factors on mortality change in the former USSR. Several events in USSR history have exerted a lasting influence on its people. These influences may be captured by an APC model in which the period effects measure the impact of contemporary factors and the cohort effects the past history of individuals which cannot be attributed to age or stage in the life cycle. APC models are extensively applied in the study of mortality. This article presents the statistical theory of the APC models and shows that they belong to the family of generalized linear models. The parameters of the APC model may therefore be estimated by any package of loglinear analysis that allows for hybrid loglinear models.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

Incorporating principal component analysis into air quality model evaluation

EPA Science Inventory

The efficacy of standard air quality model evaluation techniques is becoming compromised as the simulation periods continue to lengthen in response to ever increasing computing capacity. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a statistical approach called Princi...

History of water quality parameters - a study on the Sinos River/Brazil.

PubMed

Konzen, G B; Figueiredo, J A S; Quevedo, D M

2015-05-01

Water is increasingly becoming a valuable resource, constituting one of the central themes of environmental, economic and social discussions. The Sinos River, located in southern Brazil, is the main river from the Sinos River Basin, representing a source of drinking water supply for a highly populated region. Considering its size and importance, it becomes necessary to conduct a study to follow up the water quality of this river, which is considered by some experts as one of the most polluted rivers in Brazil. As for this study, its great importance lies in the historical analysis of indicators. In this sense, we sought to develop aspects related to the management of water resources by performing a historical analysis of the Water Quality Index (WQI) of the Sinos River, using statistical methods. With regard to the methodological procedures, it should be pointed out that this study performs a time analysis of monitoring data on parameters related to a punctual measurement that is variable in time, using statistical tools. The data used refer to analyses of the water quality of the Sinos River (WQI) from the State Environmental Protection Agency Henrique Luiz Roessler (Fundação Estadual de Proteção Ambiental Henrique Luiz Roessler, FEPAM) covering the period between 2000 and 2008, as well as to a theoretical analysis focusing on the management of water resources. The study of WQI and its parameters by statistical analysis has shown to be effective, ensuring its effectiveness as a tool for the management of water resources. The descriptive analysis of the WQI and its parameters showed that the water quality of the Sinos River is concerning low, which reaffirms that it is one of the most polluted rivers in Brazil. It should be highlighted that there was an overall difficulty in obtaining data with the appropriate periodicity, as well as a long complete series, which limited the conduction of statistical studies such as the present one.

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003more » and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.« less

Role of reservoirs in sustained seismicity of Koyna-Warna region—a statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Amrita; Gahalaut, Kalpna; Purnachandra Rao, N.

2018-03-01

Koyna-Warna region in western India is a globally recognized site of reservoir-triggered seismicity near the Koyna and Warna reservoirs. The region has been reported with several M > 5 earthquakes in the last five decades including M6.3 Koyna earthquake which is considered as the largest triggered earthquake worldwide. In the present study, a detailed statistical analysis has been done for long period earthquake catalogues during 1968-2004 of MERI and 2005-2012 of CSIR-NGRI to find out the spatio-temporal influence of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs impoundment on the seismicity of the region. Depending upon the earthquake clusters, we divided the region into three different zones and performed power spectrum and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) on them. For the time period 1983-1995, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir; for 1996-2004, the earthquake zone near the Koyna reservoir; and for 2005-2012, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir found to be influenced by the annual water level variations in the reservoirs that confirm the continuous role of both the reservoirs in the seismicity of the Koyna-Warna region.

A clinicomicrobiological study to evaluate the efficacy of manual and powered toothbrushes among autistic patients

PubMed Central

Vajawat, Mayuri; Deepika, P. C.; Kumar, Vijay; Rajeshwari, P.

2015-01-01

Aim: To compare the efficacy of powered toothbrushes in improving gingival health and reducing salivary red complex counts as compared to manual toothbrushes, among autistic individuals. Materials and Methods: Forty autistics was selected. Test group received powered toothbrushes, and control group received manual toothbrushes. Plaque index and gingival index were recorded. Unstimulated saliva was collected for analysis of red complex organisms using polymerase chain reaction. Results: A statistically significant reduction in the plaque scores was seen over a period of 12 weeks in both the groups (P < 0.001 for tests and P = 0.002 for controls). This reduction was statistically more significant in the test group (P = 0.024). A statistically significant reduction in the gingival scores was seen over a period of 12 weeks in both the groups (P < 0.001 for tests and P = 0.001 for controls). This reduction was statistically more significant in the test group (P = 0.042). No statistically significant reduction in the detection rate of red complex organisms were seen at 4 weeks in both the groups. Conclusion: Powered toothbrushes result in a significant overall improvement in gingival health when constant reinforcement of oral hygiene instructions is given. PMID:26681855

Traditional Practices of Mothers in the Postpartum Period: Evidence from Turkey.

PubMed

Altuntuğ, Kamile; Anık, Yeşim; Ege, Emel

2018-03-01

In various cultures, the postpartum period is a sensitive time and various traditional practices are applied to protect the health of the mother and the baby. The aim of this study was to determine traditional practices of mother care in the postpartum period in Konya City of Turkey. The research was a descriptive, cross-sectional study carried out among 291 women at the first 8 weeks of postpartum period who visited to family health centers from June 1 to December 1, 2015. The data were collected using questionnaires. Statistical analysis of the data was done with SSPS version 22.0. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. Based on the results, 84.5% of women applied a traditional mother care practice during the postpartum period. The most popular, were practices for increasing of breast milk (97.9%), preventing incubus "albasması" (81.8%), getting rid of incubus (74.9%), and preventing postpartum bleeding (14.1%).The findings of the study show that traditional practices towards mother care in the period after birth are common. In order to provide better health services, it is important for health professionals to understand the traditional beliefs and practices of the individuals, families, and society that they serve.

Oral pseudoephedrine decreases the rate of transmucosal nitrous oxide exchange for the middle ear.

PubMed

Teixeira, Miriam S; Alper, Cuneyt M; Martin, Brian S; Doyle, Brendan M Cullen; Doyle, William J

2015-09-01

Determine if oral treatment with a vasoconstrictor decreases the blood to middle ear exchange rate of the perfusion-limited gas, nitrous oxide (N2O). Randomized, double-blind, crossover study. Ten adult subjects with and 10 without past middle ear disease completed paired experimental sessions, identical except for oral treatment with either pseudoephedrine hydrochloride or lactose placebo. At each session, subjects were fitted with a nonrebreathing mask and breathed room air for 20 minutes (acclimation period), 50% N2O:50% O2 for 20 minutes (experimental period), and 100% O2 for 10 minutes (recovery period). Throughout, heart rate, blood pressure, and O2 saturation were monitored, and bilateral middle ear pressures were recorded by tympanometry every minute. The primary outcome was the slope of the middle ear pressure-time function for the experimental period, which estimates the volume N2O exchange rate. Using repeated measures analysis of variance, the effects of group (disease history), treatment (active vs. placebo), and period (1 vs. 2) on the recorded vital signs, and of group, treatment, and ear (left/right) on the middle ear pressure-time slope were evaluated for statistical significance. Statistically significant effects of period on O2 saturation (period 2 > period 1) and of treatment on heart rate (active > placebo) were documented. Only treatment was statistically significant for the middle ear pressure-time slope, with a shallower slope characterizing the active treatment session. The volume exchange rate across the middle ear mucosa of perfusion-limited gases can be modulated pharmacologically. Theoretically, similar drugs can be used to reduce the requisite eustachian tube opening efficiency for adequate middle ear pressure regulation. 1b. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Multivariate Data Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-03

the anthropometrists, biologists, and psychologists of that era. Such initial contributors to modern statistics as Francis Galton and Karl Pearson...1159-78. [5] Galton , Francis (1888), "Co-relations and Their Measurements, Chiefly from Anthropometric Data," Proceedings of the...stem from that period. Galton seemed to be perpetually engaged in data analysis. He and his cousin, Darwin, and others revolved in an age of

A climatology of total ozone mapping spectrometer data using rotated principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eder, Brian K.; Leduc, Sharon K.; Sickles, Joseph E.

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal variability of total column ozone (Ω) obtained from the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS version 7.0) during the period 1980-1992 was examined through the use of a multivariate statistical technique called rotated principal component analysis. Utilization of Kaiser's varimax orthogonal rotation led to the identification of 14, mostly contiguous subregions that together accounted for more than 70% of the total Ω variance. Each subregion displayed statistically unique Ω characteristics that were further examined through time series and spectral density analyses, revealing significant periodicities on semiannual, annual, quasi-biennial, and longer term time frames. This analysis facilitated identification of the probable mechanisms responsible for the variability of Ω within the 14 homogeneous subregions. The mechanisms were either dynamical in nature (i.e., advection associated with baroclinic waves, the quasi-biennial oscillation, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation) or photochemical in nature (i.e., production of odd oxygen (O or O3) associated with the annual progression of the Sun). The analysis has also revealed that the influence of a data retrieval artifact, found in equatorial latitudes of version 6.0 of the TOMS data, has been reduced in version 7.0.

A statistical analysis of the effects of a uniform minimum drinking age

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-04-01

This report examines the relationship between minimum drinking age (MDA) and : highway fatalities during the 1975-1985 period, when 35 states changed their : MDAs. An econometric model of fatalities involving the 18-20 year-old driver : normalized by...

Midsouth timber statistics

Treesearch

William H. McWilliams; Richard A. Birdsey

1986-01-01

The forest inventory and analysis unit of the southern forest experiment station (Forest Survey) conducts periodic inventories about every 10 years covering forest resource inventories of Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, East Oklahoma, Tennessee, and East Texas. Appendix tables present summaries of timberland area, growing-stock volume, ownership class,...

The influence of depression and anxiety in the development of heart failure after coronary angioplasty.

PubMed

Gegenava, T; Gegenava, M; Kavtaradze, G

2009-03-01

The aim of our study was to investigate the association between history of depressive episode and anxiety and complications in patients after 6 months of coronary artery angioplasty. The research was conducted on 70 patients, the grade of coronary occlusion that would not respond to therapeutic treatment and need coronary angioplasty had been established. Complications were estimated in 60 patients after 6 months of coronary angioplasty. To evaluate depression we used Beck depression scale Anxiety was assessed by Spilberger State-trait anxiety scale. Statistic analysis of the data was made by means of the methods of variation statistics using Students' criterion and program of STATISTICA w 5.0. Complications were discovered in 36 (60%) patients; 24 (40%) patients had not complications. There was not revealed significant statistical differences in depression and anxiety degree in coronary angioplasty period and after 6 months of coronary angioplasty. There was not revealed significant statistical differences in depression and anxiety degree in coronary angioplasty period and after 6 months of coronary angioplasty. Our study demonstrated that complications were revealed in patients who had high degree of depression and anxiety.

Dental and Chronological Ages as Determinants of Peak Growth Period and Its Relationship with Dental Calcification Stages

PubMed Central

Litsas, George; Lucchese, Alessandra

2016-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between dental, chronological, and cervical vertebral maturation growth in the peak growth period, as well as to study the association between the dental calcification phases and the skeletal maturity stages during the same growth period. Methods: Subjects were selected from orthodontic pre-treatment cohorts consisting of 420 subjects where 255 were identified and enrolled into the study, comprising 145 girls and 110 boys. The lateral cephalometric and panoramic radiographs were examined from the archives of the Department of Orthodontics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece. Dental age was assessed according to the method of Demirjian, and skeletal maturation according to the Cervical Vertebral Maturation Method. Statistical elaboration included Spearman Brown formula, descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation coefficient and regression analysis, paired samples t-test, and Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient. Results: Chronological and dental age showed a high correlation for both gender(r =0.741 for boys, r = 0.770 for girls, p<0.001). The strongest correlation was for the CVM Stage IV for both males (r=0.554) and females (r=0.68). The lowest correlation was for the CVM Stage III in males (r=0.433, p<0.001) and for the CVM Stage II in females (r=0.393, p>0.001). The t-test revealed statistically significant differences between these variables (p<0.001) during the peak period. A statistically significant correlation (p<0.001) between tooth calcification and CVM stages was determined. The second molars showed the highest correlation with CVM stages (CVMS) (r= 0.65 for boys, r = 0.72 for girls). Conclusion: Dental age was more advanced than chronological for both boys and girls for all CVMS. During the peak period these differences were more pronounced. Moreover, all correlations between skeletal and dental stages were statistically significant. The second molars showed the highest correlation whereas the canines showed the lowest correlation for both gender. PMID:27335610

Lomnický štít Observatory - meteorology and solar astrophysics. (Slovak Title: Observatórium Lomnický štít - meteorológia a slnečná astrofyzika)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybák, J.; Mačura, R.; Bendík, P.; Bochníček, O.; Horecká, V.

2010-12-01

The paper presents statistical results obtained in the analysis of long-term series of meteorological observations of temperature, wind speed and wind direction, and daylight length that were measured in the period 1964-2009 at the SHMI Meteorological Observatory located at the Lomnický štít mountain peak. In relation to these meteorological data, the contribution also presents statistical results for time scales of various types of solar prominence and solar corona observations at the Lomnický štít Astronomical Observatory in the period 1980-2009. The obtained results were used to characterize the observatory from meteorological perspective presenting mainly the range and quality of observing conditions suitable for solar activity observations. The results show that observing conditions allow for observation of prominences in approximately one third of the days in a year, and observation of the emission corona in approximately one fifth of the days in a year. The contribution also documents the use of the obtained results in preparation of new post-focal instruments for solar corona monitoring, i. e. the coronal multipolarimeter (COMP-S) that is at present under construction. Effects of local warming of the Earth's atmosphere are tested in a statistical analysis of the meteorological data collected in the period 1964-2009. In this period, a marked local warming occured at Lomnický štít with increases in the minimal daily temperature 0.90°C and maximal daily temperature 1.84°C, and the mean value of these quantities raising by 1.21°C.

Statistical analysis and trends of wet snow avalanches in the French Alps over the period 1959-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naaim, Mohamed

2017-04-01

Since an avalanche contains a significant proportion of wet snow, its characteristics and its behavior change significantly (heterogeneous and polydisperse). Even if on a steep given slope, wet snow avalanches are slow. They can flow over gentle slopes and reach the same extensions as dry avalanches. To highlight the link between climate warming and the proliferation of wet snow avlanches, we crossed two well-documented avalanche databases: the permanent avalanche chronicle (EPA) and the meteorological re-analyzes. For each avalanche referenced in EPA, a moisture index I is buit. It represents the ratio of the thickness of the wet snow layer to the total snow thickness, at the date of the avalanche on the concerned massif at 2400 m.a.s.l. The daily and annual proportion of avalanches exceeding a given threshold of I are calculated for each massif of the French alps. The statistical distribution of wet avalanches per massif is calculated over the period 1959-2009. The statistical quantities are also calculated over two successive periods of the same duration 1959-1984 and 1984-2009, and the annual evolution of the proportion of wet avalanches is studied using time-series tools to detect potential rupture or trends. This study showed that about 77% of avalanches on the French alpine massif mobilize dry snow. The probability of having an avalanche of a moisture index greater than 10 % in a given year is 0.2. This value varies from one massif to another. The analysis between the two successive periods showed a significant growth of wet avalanches on 20 massifs and a decrease on 3 massifs. The study of time-series confirmed these trends, which are of the inter-annual variability level.

Methodological barriers to studying the association between the economic crisis and suicide in Spain.

PubMed

Alvarez-Galvez, Javier; Salinas-Perez, Jose A; Rodero-Cosano, María Luisa; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2017-09-06

The hypothetical relationship between economic recession and the increase in suicides in Spain is subject to various arguments. In addition to the inherent complexity of capturing and explaining the underlining mechanisms that could describe this causal link, different points of contention have been be identified. The period of this association and its possible starting points, the socioeconomic determinants that may explain the variation in suicide rate, and the data sources available are the main focus of controversy. The present study aims to identify the phases of association between different periods of economic recession and suicide rates, and compare the effect of different social determinants of health that have been mentioned in previous studies. We have used interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of economic recession on national rates of suicide mortality provided by the Spanish Statistical Office (1980-2014). In an attempt to consider the factors that have affected the study of suicide in Spain, different data sources/periods, predictors, and regions in Spain were analysed. The analysis revealed a positive and significant relationship between the Great Recession and suicide rates during the second period of economic recession (2011-2014), while appeared to decrease during the first recession period. However, the first decreasing trend was not statistically significant in the global analysis of the evolution of monthly suicide rates for the entire country. Both unemployment and per capita GDP were positively related to suicide trends. Finally, the regional analysis demonstrates a similar pattern in different Spanish areas. Although previous studies have mentioned the double-dip in the suicide rate associated with the corresponding period of double recession, our study only identify a positive relationship during the second recession period. These results points out that the major impact of economic problems might have had a delayed effect due to initial protection policies.

Assessment of the beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test using statistical process control.

PubMed

Cher, Daniel J; Deubner, David C; Kelsh, Michael A; Chapman, Pamela S; Ray, Rose M

2006-10-01

Despite more than 20 years of surveillance and epidemiologic studies using the beryllium blood lymphocyte proliferation test (BeBLPT) as a measure of beryllium sensitization (BeS) and as an aid for diagnosing subclinical chronic beryllium disease (CBD), improvements in specific understanding of the inhalation toxicology of CBD have been limited. Although epidemiologic data suggest that BeS and CBD risks vary by process/work activity, it has proven difficult to reach specific conclusions regarding the dose-response relationship between workplace beryllium exposure and BeS or subclinical CBD. One possible reason for this uncertainty could be misclassification of BeS resulting from variation in BeBLPT testing performance. The reliability of the BeBLPT, a biological assay that measures beryllium sensitization, is unknown. To assess the performance of four laboratories that conducted this test, we used data from a medical surveillance program that offered testing for beryllium sensitization with the BeBLPT. The study population was workers exposed to beryllium at various facilities over a 10-year period (1992-2001). Workers with abnormal results were offered diagnostic workups for CBD. Our analyses used a standard statistical technique, statistical process control (SPC), to evaluate test reliability. The study design involved a repeated measures analysis of BeBLPT results generated from the company-wide, longitudinal testing. Analytical methods included use of (1) statistical process control charts that examined temporal patterns of variation for the stimulation index, a measure of cell reactivity to beryllium; (2) correlation analysis that compared prior perceptions of BeBLPT instability to the statistical measures of test variation; and (3) assessment of the variation in the proportion of missing test results and how time periods with more missing data influenced SPC findings. During the period of this study, all laboratories displayed variation in test results that were beyond what would be expected due to chance alone. Patterns of test results suggested that variations were systematic. We conclude that laboratories performing the BeBLPT or other similar biological assays of immunological response could benefit from a statistical approach such as SPC to improve quality management.

Mapping Findspots of Roman Military Brickstamps in Mogontiacum (Mainz) and Archaeometrical Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolata, Jens; Mucha, Hans-Joachim; Bartel, Hans-Georg

Mainz was a Roman settlement that was established as an important military outpost in 13 BC. Almost 100 years later Mainz, the ancient Mogontiacum, became the seat of the administrative centre of the Roman Province of Germania Superior. About 3,500 brickstamps concerning to the period until the fall of the Roman Empire in the fifth century AD have been found in archaeological excavations. These documents have to be investigated based on several methods for a better understanding the history. Here the focus is on an application of spatial statistical analysis in archaeology. Concretely, about 250 sites have to be investigated. So, we compare maps of different periods graphically by nonparametric density estimation. Here different weights of the sites according to the radius of the finding area are taken into account. Moreover we can test whether archaeological segmentation is statistically significant or not. In combination of smooth mapping, testing and looking for dated brickstamps there is a good chance to achieve new sources for the Roman history of Mainz.

Gender in the allocation of organs in kidney transplants: meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Santiago, Erika Vieira Almeida e; Silveira, Micheline Rosa; de Araújo, Vânia Eloisa; Farah, Katia de Paula; Acurcio, Francisco de Assis; Ceccato, Maria das Graças Braga

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze whether gender influence survival results of kidney transplant grafts and patients. METHODS Systematic review with meta-analysis of cohort studies available on Medline (PubMed), LILACS, CENTRAL, and Embase databases, including manual searching and in the grey literature. The selection of studies and the collection of data were conducted twice by independent reviewers, and disagreements were settled by a third reviewer. Graft and patient survival rates were evaluated as effectiveness measurements. Meta-analysis was conducted with the Review Manager® 5.2 software, through the application of a random effects model. Recipient, donor, and donor-recipient gender comparisons were evaluated. RESULTS : Twenty-nine studies involving 765,753 patients were included. Regarding graft survival, those from male donors were observed to have longer survival rates as compared to the ones from female donors, only regarding a 10-year follow-up period. Comparison between recipient genders was not found to have significant differences on any evaluated follow-up periods. In the evaluation between donor-recipient genders, male donor-male recipient transplants were favored in a statistically significant way. No statistically significant differences were observed in regards to patient survival for gender comparisons in all follow-up periods evaluated. CONCLUSIONS The quantitative analysis of the studies suggests that donor or recipient genders, when evaluated isolatedly, do not influence patient or graft survival rates. However, the combination between donor-recipient genders may be a determining factor for graft survival. PMID:26465666

Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-07-01

Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Alternative statistical methods for interpreting airborne Alder (Alnus glutimosa (L.) Gaertner) pollen concentrations.

PubMed

González Parrado, Zulima; Valencia Barrera, Rosa M; Fuertes Rodríguez, Carmen R; Vega Maray, Ana M; Pérez Romero, Rafael; Fraile, Roberto; Fernández González, Delia

2009-01-01

This paper reports on the behaviour of Alnus glutinosa (alder) pollen grains in the atmosphere of Ponferrada (León, NW Spain) from 1995 to 2006. The study, which sought to determine the effects of various weather-related parameters on Alnus pollen counts, was performed using a volumetric method. The main pollination period for this taxon is January-February. Alder pollen is one of the eight major airborne pollen allergens found in the study area. An analysis was made of the correlation between pollen counts and major weather-related parameters over each period. In general, the strongest positive correlation was with temperature, particularly maximum temperature. During each period, peak pollen counts occurred when the maximum temperature fell within the range 9 degrees C-14 degrees C. Finally, multivariate analysis showed that the parameter exerting the greatest influence was temperature, a finding confirmed by Spearman correlation tests. Principal components analysis suggested that periods with high pollen counts were characterised by high maximum temperature, low rainfall and an absolute humidity of around 6 g m(-3). Use of this type of analysis in conjunction with other methods is essential for obtaining an accurate record of pollen-count variations over a given period.

A statistical framework for neuroimaging data analysis based on mutual information estimated via a gaussian copula.

PubMed

Ince, Robin A A; Giordano, Bruno L; Kayser, Christoph; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Gross, Joachim; Schyns, Philippe G

2017-03-01

We begin by reviewing the statistical framework of information theory as applicable to neuroimaging data analysis. A major factor hindering wider adoption of this framework in neuroimaging is the difficulty of estimating information theoretic quantities in practice. We present a novel estimation technique that combines the statistical theory of copulas with the closed form solution for the entropy of Gaussian variables. This results in a general, computationally efficient, flexible, and robust multivariate statistical framework that provides effect sizes on a common meaningful scale, allows for unified treatment of discrete, continuous, unidimensional and multidimensional variables, and enables direct comparisons of representations from behavioral and brain responses across any recording modality. We validate the use of this estimate as a statistical test within a neuroimaging context, considering both discrete stimulus classes and continuous stimulus features. We also present examples of analyses facilitated by these developments, including application of multivariate analyses to MEG planar magnetic field gradients, and pairwise temporal interactions in evoked EEG responses. We show the benefit of considering the instantaneous temporal derivative together with the raw values of M/EEG signals as a multivariate response, how we can separately quantify modulations of amplitude and direction for vector quantities, and how we can measure the emergence of novel information over time in evoked responses. Open-source Matlab and Python code implementing the new methods accompanies this article. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1541-1573, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 2016 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Randomised sham-controlled double-blind multicentre clinical trial to ascertain the effect of percutaneous radiofrequency treatment for lumbar facet joint pain.

PubMed

van Tilburg, C W J; Stronks, D L; Groeneweg, J G; Huygen, F J P M

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to compare the effect of a percutaneous radiofrequency heat lesion at the medial branch of the primary dorsal ramus with a sham procedure, for the treatment of lumbar facet joint pain. A randomised sham-controlled double blind multicentre trial was carried out at the multidisciplinary pain centres of two hospitals. A total of 60 patients aged > 18 years with a history and physical examination suggestive of facet joint pain and a decrease of ≥ 2 on a numerical rating scale (NRS 0 to 10) after a diagnostic facet joint test block were included. In the treatment group, a percutaneous radiofrequency heat lesion (80 o C during 60 seconds per level) was applied to the medial branch of the primary dorsal ramus. In the sham group, the same procedure was undertaken without for the radiofrequency lesion. Both groups also received a graded activity physiotherapy programme. The primary outcome measure was decrease in pain. A secondary outcome measure was the Global Perceived Effect scale (GPE). There was a statistically significant effect on the level of pain in the factor Period (T0-T1). However, there was no statistically significant difference with the passage of time between the groups (Group × Period) or in the factor Group. In the crossover group, 11 of 19 patients had a decrease in NRS of ≥ 2 at one month crossover (p = 0.65). There was no statistically significant difference in satisfaction with the passage of time between the groups (Group × Period). The independent factors Group and Period also showed no statistically significant difference. There was no statistically significant Group × Period effect for recovery, neither an effect of Group or of Period. The null hypothesis of no difference in the decrease in pain and in GPE between the treatment and sham groups cannot be rejected. Post hoc analysis revealed that the age of the patients and the severity of the initial pain significantly predicted a positive outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1526-33. ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Quantifying long-term human impact in contrasting environments: Statistical analysis of modern and fossil pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broothaerts, Nils; López-Sáez, José Antonio; Verstraeten, Gert

2017-04-01

Reconstructing and quantifying human impact is an important step to understand human-environment interactions in the past. Quantitative measures of human impact on the landscape are needed to fully understand long-term influence of anthropogenic land cover changes on the global climate, ecosystems and geomorphic processes. Nevertheless, quantifying past human impact is not straightforward. Recently, multivariate statistical analysis of fossil pollen records have been proposed to characterize vegetation changes and to get insights in past human impact. Although statistical analysis of fossil pollen data can provide useful insights in anthropogenic driven vegetation changes, still it cannot be used as an absolute quantification of past human impact. To overcome this shortcoming, in this study fossil pollen records were included in a multivariate statistical analysis (cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS)) together with modern pollen data and modern vegetation data. The information on the modern pollen and vegetation dataset can be used to get a better interpretation of the representativeness of the fossil pollen records, and can result in a full quantification of human impact in the past. This methodology was applied in two contrasting environments: SW Turkey and Central Spain. For each region, fossil pollen data from different study sites were integrated, together with modern pollen data and information on modern vegetation. In this way, arboreal cover, grazing pressure and agricultural activities in the past were reconstructed and quantified. The data from SW Turkey provides new integrated information on changing human impact through time in the Sagalassos territory, and shows that human impact was most intense during the Hellenistic and Roman Period (ca. 2200-1750 cal a BP) and decreased and changed in nature afterwards. The data from central Spain shows for several sites that arboreal cover decreases bellow 5% from the Feudal period onwards (ca. 850 cal a BP) related to increasing human impact in the landscape. At other study sites arboreal cover remained above 25% beside significant human impact. Overall, the presented examples from two contrasting environments shows how cluster analysis and NMDS of modern and fossil pollen data can help to provide quantitative insights in anthropogenic land cover changes. Our study extensively discuss and illustrate the possibilities and limitations of statistical analysis of pollen data to quantify human induced land use changes.

Chronic Hepatitis C-Related Cirrhosis Hospitalization Cost Analysis in Bulgaria.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Maria; Pavlov, Kaloyan; Mitov, Konstantin; Genov, Jordan; Petrova, Guenka Ivanova

2017-01-01

HCV infection is a leading cause of chronic liver disease with long-term complications-extensive fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The objective of this study is to perform cost analysis of therapy of patients with chronic HCV-related cirrhosis hospitalized in the University Hospital "Queen Joanna-ISUL" for 3-year period (2012-2014). It is a prospective, real life observational study of 297 patients with chronic HCV infection and cirrhosis monitored in the University Hospital "Queen Joanna-ISUL" for 3-year period. Data on demographic, clinical characteristics, and health-care resources utilization (hospitalizations, highly specialized interventions, and pharmacotherapy) were collected. Micro-costing approach was applied to evaluate the total direct medical costs. The points of view are that of the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), hospital and the patients. Collected cost data are from the NHIF and hospitals tariffs, patients, and from the positive dug list for medicines prices. Descriptive statistics, chi-squared test, Kruskal-Wallis, and Friedman tests were used for statistical processing. 76% of patients were male. 93% were diagnosed in grade Child-Pugh A and B. 97% reported complications, and almost all developed esophageal varices. During the 3 years observational period, patients did not change the critical clinical values for Child-Pugh status and therefore the group was considered as homogenous. 847 hospitalizations were recorded for 3 years period with average length of stay 17 days. The mortality rate of 6.90% was extremely high. The total direct medical costs for the observed cohort of patients for 3-year period accounted for 1,290,533 BGN (€659,839) with an average cost per patient 4,577 BGN (€2,340). Statistically significant correlation was observed between the total cost per patient from the different payers' perspective and the Child-Pugh cirrhosis score. HCV-related cirrhosis is resource demanding and sets high direct medical costs as it is related with increased hospitalizations and complications acquiring additional treatment.

The enhanced forest inventory and analysis program of the USDA forest service: historical perspective and announcements of statistical documentation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; William A. Bechtold; Paul L. Patterson; Charles T. Scott; Gregory A. Reams

2005-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service has initiated a transition from regional, periodic inventories to an enhanced national FIA program featuring annual measurement of a proportion of plots in each state, greater national consistency, and integration with the ground sampling component of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) program...

Linear retrieval and global measurements of wind speed from the Seasat SMMR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandey, P. C.

1983-01-01

Retrievals of wind speed (WS) from Seasat Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) were performed using a two-step statistical technique. Nine subsets of two to five SMMR channels were examined for wind speed retrieval. These subsets were derived by using a leaps and bound procedure based on the coefficient of determination selection criteria to a statistical data base of brightness temperatures and geophysical parameters. Analysis of Monsoon Experiment and ocean station PAPA data showed a strong correlation between sea surface temperature and water vapor. This relation was used in generating the statistical data base. Global maps of WS were produced for one and three month periods.

A comparative analysis of the statistical properties of large mobile phone calling networks.

PubMed

Li, Ming-Xia; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Miccichè, Salvatore; Tumminello, Michele; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Mantegna, Rosario N

2014-05-30

Mobile phone calling is one of the most widely used communication methods in modern society. The records of calls among mobile phone users provide us a valuable proxy for the understanding of human communication patterns embedded in social networks. Mobile phone users call each other forming a directed calling network. If only reciprocal calls are considered, we obtain an undirected mutual calling network. The preferential communication behavior between two connected users can be statistically tested and it results in two Bonferroni networks with statistically validated edges. We perform a comparative analysis of the statistical properties of these four networks, which are constructed from the calling records of more than nine million individuals in Shanghai over a period of 110 days. We find that these networks share many common structural properties and also exhibit idiosyncratic features when compared with previously studied large mobile calling networks. The empirical findings provide us an intriguing picture of a representative large social network that might shed new lights on the modelling of large social networks.

Analysis of carpooling in Missouri and an evaluation of Missouri's carpool services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnett, D.R.

1984-12-10

The evaluation is both a statistical profile of carpooling in Missouri as well as an experimental use of utilizing secondary data analysis in combination with clientele surveys to measure the impact of the Division of Energy's carpooling programs. Kansas City, mid-Missouri and St. Louis are examined. Secondary data analysis seems to indicate that during the period from 1980 to 1983 carpooling increased but vehicle occupancy counts decreased simultaneously with increasing gasoline prices. The evaluation theorizes that the Civilian Labor Force masked carpool statistics - growing at a faster rate than the carpooling growth rate. In conjunction with clientele surveys, themore » secondary data analysis measures the Division of Energy's impact on carpooling at 2.6% of all carpoolers in Kansas City and 1.0% of all carpoolers in St. Louis during 1983.« less

Influence of solar activity on fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis. [statistical correlation between solar flare and blood coagulation indices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, V. I.

1974-01-01

During periods of high solar activity fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis are increased. A direct correlative relationship is established between the indices of fibrinolysis, fibrinogenolysis and solar flares which were recorded two days before the blood was collected for analysis.

Determination of baseline periods of record for selected streamflow-gaging stations in and near Oklahoma for use in modeling applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.

2010-01-01

Use of historical streamflow data from a least-altered period of record can be used in calibration of various modeling applications that are used to characterize least-altered flow and predict the effects of proposed streamflow alteration. This information can be used to enhance water-resources planning. A baseline period of record was determined for selected streamflow-gaging stations that can be used as a calibration dataset for modeling applications. The baseline period of record was defined as a period that is least-altered by anthropogenic activity and has sufficient streamflow record length to represent extreme climate variability. Streamflow data from 171 stations in and near Oklahoma with a minimum of 10 complete water years of daily streamflow record through water year 2007 and drainage areas that were less than 2,500 square miles were considered for use in the baseline period analysis. The first step to determine the least-altered period of record was to evaluate station information by using previous publications, historical station record notes, and information gathered from oral and written communication with hydrographers familiar with selected stations. The second step was to indentify stations that had substantial effects from upstream regulation by evaluating the location and extent of dams in the drainage basin. The third step was (a) the analysis of annual hydrographs and included visual hydrograph analysis for selected stations with 20 or more years of streamflow record, (b) analysis of covariance of double-mass curves, and (c) Kendall's tau trend analysis to detect statistically significant trends in base flow, runoff, total flow, and base-flow index related to anthropogenic activity for selected stations with 15 or more years of streamflow record. A preliminary least-altered period of record for each stream was identified by removing the period of streamflow record when streams were substantially affected by anthropogenic activity. After streamflow record was removed from designation as a least-altered period, stations that did not have at least 10 years of remaining continuous streamflow record were considered to have an insufficient baseline period for modeling applications. An optimum minimum period of record was determined for each of the least-altered periods for each station to ensure a sufficient streamflow record length to provide a representative sample of annual climate variability. An optimum minimum period of 10 years or more was evaluated by analyzing the variability of annual precipitation for selected 5-, 10-, 15-, 25-, and 35-year periods for each of 20 climate divisions that contained stations used in the baseline period analysis. The distribution of annual precipitation was compared for each consecutive overlapping 5-year period to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The least-altered period of record for stations was also compared to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The results of this analysis were used to determine how many years of annual precipitation data were needed for the selected period to be statistically similar to the distribution of annual precipitation data for a long-term period, 1925-2007. Minimum optimum periods ranged from 10 to 35 years and varied by climate division. A final baseline period was determined for 111 stations that had a baseline period of at least 10 years of continuous streamflow record after the record-elimination process. A suitable baseline period of record for use in modeling applications could not be identified for 58 of the initial 171 stations because of substantial anthropogenic alteration of the stream or drainage basin and for 2 stations because the least-altered period of record was not representative of annual climate variability. The baseline period for each station was rated ?excellent?, ?good?, ?fair?, ?poor?, or ?no baseline period.? This rating was based on a qualitative evaluation of t

Identifying natural flow regimes using fish communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Hung-kwai; Herricks, Edwin E.

2011-10-01

SummaryModern water resources management has adopted natural flow regimes as reasonable targets for river restoration and conservation. The characterization of a natural flow regime begins with the development of hydrologic statistics from flow records. However, little guidance exists for defining the period of record needed for regime determination. In Taiwan, the Taiwan Eco-hydrological Indicator System (TEIS), a group of hydrologic statistics selected for fisheries relevance, is being used to evaluate ecological flows. The TEIS consists of a group of hydrologic statistics selected to characterize the relationships between flow and the life history of indigenous species. Using the TEIS and biosurvey data for Taiwan, this paper identifies the length of hydrologic record sufficient for natural flow regime characterization. To define the ecological hydrology of fish communities, this study connected hydrologic statistics to fish communities by using methods to define antecedent conditions that influence existing community composition. A moving average method was applied to TEIS statistics to reflect the effects of antecedent flow condition and a point-biserial correlation method was used to relate fisheries collections with TEIS statistics. The resulting fish species-TEIS (FISH-TEIS) hydrologic statistics matrix takes full advantage of historical flows and fisheries data. The analysis indicates that, in the watersheds analyzed, averaging TEIS statistics for the present year and 3 years prior to the sampling date, termed MA(4), is sufficient to develop a natural flow regime. This result suggests that flow regimes based on hydrologic statistics for the period of record can be replaced by regimes developed for sampled fish communities.

Wildfire cluster detection using space-time scan statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, M.; Tuia, D.; Ratle, F.; Kanevski, M.

2009-04-01

The aim of the present study is to identify spatio-temporal clusters of fires sequences using space-time scan statistics. These statistical methods are specifically designed to detect clusters and assess their significance. Basically, scan statistics work by comparing a set of events occurring inside a scanning window (or a space-time cylinder for spatio-temporal data) with those that lie outside. Windows of increasing size scan the zone across space and time: the likelihood ratio is calculated for each window (comparing the ratio "observed cases over expected" inside and outside): the window with the maximum value is assumed to be the most probable cluster, and so on. Under the null hypothesis of spatial and temporal randomness, these events are distributed according to a known discrete-state random process (Poisson or Bernoulli), which parameters can be estimated. Given this assumption, it is possible to test whether or not the null hypothesis holds in a specific area. In order to deal with fires data, the space-time permutation scan statistic has been applied since it does not require the explicit specification of the population-at risk in each cylinder. The case study is represented by Florida daily fire detection using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire product during the period 2003-2006. As result, statistically significant clusters have been identified. Performing the analyses over the entire frame period, three out of the five most likely clusters have been identified in the forest areas, on the North of the country; the other two clusters cover a large zone in the South, corresponding to agricultural land and the prairies in the Everglades. Furthermore, the analyses have been performed separately for the four years to analyze if the wildfires recur each year during the same period. It emerges that clusters of forest fires are more frequent in hot seasons (spring and summer), while in the South areas they are widely present along the whole year. The analysis of fires distribution to evaluate if they are statistically more frequent in some area or/and in some period of the year, can be useful to support fire management and to focus on prevention measures.

Due Diligence and the Evaluation of Teachers: A Review of the Value-Added Analysis Underlying the Effectiveness Rankings of Los Angeles Unified School District Teachers by the "Los Angeles Times"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Derek; Domingue, Ben

2011-01-01

On August 14, 2010, the "Los Angeles Times" published the results of a statistical analysis of student test data to provide information about elementary schools and teachers in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD). The analysis, covering the period from 2003 to 2009, was put forward as an evaluation of the effects of schools…

Statistical analysis of bankrupting and non-bankrupting stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qian; Wang, Fengzhong; Wei, Jianrong; Liang, Yuan; Huang, Jiping; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-04-01

The recent financial crisis has caused extensive world-wide economic damage, affecting in particular those who invested in companies that eventually filed for bankruptcy. A better understanding of stocks that become bankrupt would be helpful in reducing risk in future investments. Economists have conducted extensive research on this topic, and here we ask whether statistical physics concepts and approaches may offer insights into pre-bankruptcy stock behavior. To this end, we study all 20092 stocks listed in US stock markets for the 20-year period 1989-2008, including 4223 (21 percent) that became bankrupt during that period. We find that, surprisingly, the distributions of the daily returns of those stocks that become bankrupt differ significantly from those that do not. Moreover, these differences are consistent for the entire period studied. We further study the relation between the distribution of returns and the length of time until bankruptcy, and observe that larger differences of the distribution of returns correlate with shorter time periods preceding bankruptcy. This behavior suggests that sharper fluctuations in the stock price occur when the stock is closer to bankruptcy. We also analyze the cross-correlations between the return and the trading volume, and find that stocks approaching bankruptcy tend to have larger return-volume cross-correlations than stocks that are not. Furthermore, the difference increases as bankruptcy approaches. We conclude that before a firm becomes bankrupt its stock exhibits unusual behavior that is statistically quantifiable.

RP and RQA Analysis for Floating Potential Fluctuations in a DC Magnetron Sputtering Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabavath, Gopikishan; Banerjee, I.; Mahapatra, S. K.

2016-04-01

The nonlinear dynamics of a direct current magnetron sputtering plasma is visualized using recurrence plot (RP) technique. RP comprises the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) which is an efficient method to observe critical regime transitions in dynamics. Further, RQA provides insight information about the system’s behavior. We observed the floating potential fluctuations of the plasma as a function of discharge voltage by using Langmuir probe. The system exhibits quasi-periodic-chaotic-quasi-periodic-chaotic transitions. These transitions are quantified from determinism, Lmax, and entropy of RQA. Statistical investigations like kurtosis and skewness also studied for these transitions which are in well agreement with RQA results.

Biomonitoring of pollen grains of a river bank suburban city, Konnagar, Calcutta, India, and its link and impact on local people.

PubMed

Ghosal, Kavita; Pandey, Naren; Bhattacharya, Swati Gupta

2015-01-01

Pollen grains released by plants are dispersed into the air and can become trapped in human nasal mucosa, causing immediate release of allergens triggering severe Type 1 hypersensitivity reactions in susceptible allergic patients. Recent epidemiologic data show that 11-12% of people suffer from this type of disorders in India. Hence, it is important to examine whether pollen grains have a role in dissipating respiratory problems, including allergy and astma, in a subtropical suburban city. Meteorological data were collected for a period of two years, together with aerobiological sampling with a Burkard sampler. A pollen calendar was prepared for the city. A health survey and the hospitalization rate of local people for the above problems were documented following statistical analysis between pollen counts and the data from the two above-mentioned sources. Skin Prick Test and Indirect ELISA were performer for the identification of allergenic pollen grains. Bio-monitoring results showed that a total of 36 species of pollen grains were located in the air of the study area, where their presence is controlled by many important meteorological parameters proved from SPSS statistical analysis and by their blooming periods. Statistical analysis showed that there is a high positive correlation of monthly pollen counts with the data from the survey and hospital. Biochemical tests revealed the allergic nature of pollen grains of many local species found in the sampler. Bio-monitoring, together with statistical and biochemical results, leave no doubt about the role of pollen as a bio-pollutant. General knowledge about pollen allergy and specific allergenic pollen grains of a particular locality could be a good step towards better health for the cosmopolitan suburban city.

Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Manlove, Kezia; Hollimon, Cynthia

2012-01-01

An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

EnvironmentalWaveletTool: Continuous and discrete wavelet analysis and filtering for environmental time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galiana-Merino, J. J.; Pla, C.; Fernandez-Cortes, A.; Cuezva, S.; Ortiz, J.; Benavente, D.

2014-10-01

A MATLAB-based computer code has been developed for the simultaneous wavelet analysis and filtering of several environmental time series, particularly focused on the analyses of cave monitoring data. The continuous wavelet transform, the discrete wavelet transform and the discrete wavelet packet transform have been implemented to provide a fast and precise time-period examination of the time series at different period bands. Moreover, statistic methods to examine the relation between two signals have been included. Finally, the entropy of curves and splines based methods have also been developed for segmenting and modeling the analyzed time series. All these methods together provide a user-friendly and fast program for the environmental signal analysis, with useful, practical and understandable results.

Feminist identity as a predictor of eating disorder diagnostic status.

PubMed

Green, Melinda A; Scott, Norman A; Riopel, Cori M; Skaggs, Anna K

2008-06-01

Passive Acceptance (PA) and Active Commitment (AC) subscales of the Feminist Identity Development Scale (FIDS) were examined as predictors of eating disorder diagnostic status as assessed by the Questionnaire for Eating Disorder Diagnoses (Q-EDD). Results of a hierarchical regression analysis revealed PA and AC scores were not statistically significant predictors of ED diagnostic status after controlling for diagnostic subtype. Results of a multiple regression analysis revealed FIDS as a statistically significant predictor of ED diagnostic status when failing to control for ED diagnostic subtype. Discrepancies suggest ED diagnostic subtype may serve as a moderator variable in the relationship between ED diagnostic status and FIDS. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Do polymorphisms of 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene affect the risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia?

PubMed

Pereira, Tiago Veiga; Rudnicki, Martina; Pereira, Alexandre Costa; Pombo-de-Oliveira, Maria S; Franco, Rendrik França

2006-01-01

Meta-analysis has become an important statistical tool in genetic association studies, since it may provide more powerful and precise estimates. However, meta-analytic studies are prone to several potential biases not only because the preferential publication of "positive'' studies but also due to difficulties in obtaining all relevant information during the study selection process. In this letter, we point out major problems in meta-analysis that may lead to biased conclusions, illustrating an empirical example of two recent meta-analyses on the relation between MTHFR polymorphisms and risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia that, despite the similarity in statistical methods and period of study selection, provided partially conflicting results.

Caries prevention during orthodontic treatment: In-vivo assessment of high-fluoride varnish to prevent white spot lesions.

PubMed

Perrini, Federico; Lombardo, Luca; Arreghini, Angela; Medori, Silvia; Siciliani, Giuseppe

2016-02-01

Our objective was to evaluate the efficacy of a fluoridated varnish in preventing white spot lesions in patients with fixed appliances. A laser-induced fluorescence device was used to determine any correlations between the degree of demineralization and the length of the observation period, the arch sector, the frequency of varnish application, and the specific tooth site. A split-mouth study design was used for 24 orthodontic patients, allocated randomly to 2 subgroups with differing frequencies of Duraphat varnish (Colgate-Palmolive, New York, NY) application. Repeated measures of the degree of demineralization were taken on the vestibular surfaces of 12 teeth (6 varnished and 6 unvarnished controls). Measurements were taken at 4 sites using a DIAGNOdent Pen 2190 laser (KaVo, Biberach an der Riss, Germany) and then subjected to statistical analysis. Generalized linear model and coefficient model analysis showed differences in the degrees of demineralization between treated and untreated teeth, but this was not statistically significant in terms of time point, frequency of application, or specific tooth site. However, when we analyzed the position of the teeth, the varnished anterior teeth showed a statistically significant reduction in demineralization compared with their unvarnished counterparts. Periodic application of fluoride varnish can offer some protection against white spots, but not to a statistically significant degree if the patients have excellent oral hygiene. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

Incorporating Budget Impact Analysis in the Implementation of Complex Interventions: A Case of an Integrated Intervention for Multimorbid Patients within the CareWell Study.

PubMed

Soto-Gordoa, Myriam; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Merino Hernández, Marisa; Mora Amengual, Joana; Fullaondo Zabala, Ane; Larrañaga, Igor; de Manuel, Esteban; Mar, Javier

2017-01-01

To develop a framework for the management of complex health care interventions within the Deming continuous improvement cycle and to test the framework in the case of an integrated intervention for multimorbid patients in the Basque Country within the CareWell project. Statistical analysis alone, although necessary, may not always represent the practical significance of the intervention. Thus, to ascertain the true economic impact of the intervention, the statistical results can be integrated into the budget impact analysis. The intervention of the case study consisted of a comprehensive approach that integrated new provider roles and new technological infrastructure for multimorbid patients, with the aim of reducing patient decompensations by 10% over 5 years. The study period was 2012 to 2020. Given the aging of the general population, the conventional scenario predicts an increase of 21% in the health care budget for care of multimorbid patients during the study period. With a successful intervention, this figure should drop to 18%. The statistical analysis, however, showed no significant differences in costs either in primary care or in hospital care between 2012 and 2014. The real costs in 2014 were by far closer to those in the conventional scenario than to the reductions expected in the objective scenario. The present implementation should be reappraised, because the present expenditure did not move closer to the objective budget. This work demonstrates the capacity of budget impact analysis to enhance the implementation of complex interventions. Its integration in the context of the continuous improvement cycle is transferable to other contexts in which implementation depth and time are important. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the use of historical information (to the Brest tide gauge located in the French Atlantic coast). In addition, the present work contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. Historical data are generally imprecise, and their inaccuracy should be properly accounted for in the analysis. However, as several authors believe, even with substantial uncertainty in the data, the use of historical information is a viable mean to improve estimates of rare events related to extreme environmental conditions. The preliminary results of this study suggest that the use of historical information increases the representativity of an outlier in the systematic data. It is also shown that the use of historical information, specifically the perception sea water level, can be considered as a reliable solution for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, which will occur during its lifetime, with an appropriate optimum of risk level. Findings are of practical relevance for applications in storm surge risk analysis and flood management.

Application of HF Doppler measurements for the investigation of internal atmospheric waves in the ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrova, I. R.; Bochkarev, V. V.; Latipov, R. R.

2009-09-01

We present results of the spectral analysis of data series of Doppler frequency shifted signals reflected from the ionosphere, using experimental data received at Kazan University, Russia. Spectra of variations with periods from 1 min to 60 days have been calculated and analyzed for different scales of periods. The power spectral density for spring and winter differs by a factor of 3-4. Local maxima of variation amplitude are detected, which are statistically significant. The periods of these amplitude increases range from 6 to 12 min for winter, and from 24 to 48 min for autumn. Properties of spectra for variations with the periods of 1-72 h have been analyzed. The maximum of variation intensity for all seasons and frequencies corresponds to the period of 24 h. Spectra of variations with periods from 3 to 60 days have been calculated. The maxima periods of power spectral density have been detected by the MUSIC method for the high spectral resolution. The detected periods correspond to planetary wave periods. Analysis of spectra for days with different level of geomagnetic activity shows that the intensity of variations for days with a high level of geomagnetic activity is higher.

The Evolution of Organization Analysis in ASQ, 1959-1979.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daft, Richard L.

1980-01-01

During the period 1959-1979, a sharp trend toward low-variety statistical languages has taken place, which may represent an organizational mapping phase in which simple, quantifiable relationships have been formally defined and measured. A broader scope of research languages will be needed in the future. (Author/IRT)

Manifestations of Namibian Boy's Underachievement in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimba, Roderick F.

2015-01-01

An analysis of the 2012 grade 10 and grade 12 Namibian examination data indicate that girls received higher grades than boys across the then 13 education regions (Educational Management Information System, EMIS, 2012). University of Namibia graduation statistics for the period of 2002 to 2012 revealed that the institution consistently produced…

The problem of extreme events in paired-watershed studies

Treesearch

James W. Hornbeck

1973-01-01

In paired-watershed studies, the occurrence of an extreme event during the after-treatment period presents a problem: the effects of treatment must be determined by using greatly extrapolated regression statistics. Several steps are presented to help insure careful handling of extreme events during analysis and reporting of research results.

The Farm Crisis and Decatur County.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flora, Jan L.; And Others

This case study assesses the impact of the farm sector on the economy and social organization of Decatur County (Kansas), a county which has historically depended on agriculture for its livelihood. Data were obtained from analysis of time series statistical indicators for the period between 1966 and 1984, questionnaire responses of local…

Drei neue gamma-Doradus-Sterne aus der ASAS-3 Datenbank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Klaus; Huemmerich, Stefan

2016-02-01

By analysis of data from the ASAS-3 archive, the stars HD 18011, NSV 16873 and NSV 3272 were identified as multiperiodic gamma Doradus variables. Essential information on these variables is presented, along with unwhitened frequency spectra and statistically significant frequencies, as derived with Period 04.

SU-E-J-261: Statistical Analysis and Chaotic Dynamics of Respiratory Signal of Patients in BodyFix

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michalski, D; Huq, M; Bednarz, G

Purpose: To quantify respiratory signal of patients in BodyFix undergoing 4DCT scan with and without immobilization cover. Methods: 20 pairs of respiratory tracks recorded with RPM system during 4DCT scan were analyzed. Descriptive statistic was applied to selected parameters of exhale-inhale decomposition. Standardized signals were used with the delay method to build orbits in embedded space. Nonlinear behavior was tested with surrogate data. Sample entropy SE, Lempel-Ziv complexity LZC and the largest Lyapunov exponents LLE were compared. Results: Statistical tests show difference between scans for inspiration time and its variability, which is bigger for scans without cover. The same ismore » for variability of the end of exhalation and inhalation. Other parameters fail to show the difference. For both scans respiratory signals show determinism and nonlinear stationarity. Statistical test on surrogate data reveals their nonlinearity. LLEs show signals chaotic nature and its correlation with breathing period and its embedding delay time. SE, LZC and LLE measure respiratory signal complexity. Nonlinear characteristics do not differ between scans. Conclusion: Contrary to expectation cover applied to patients in BodyFix appears to have limited effect on signal parameters. Analysis based on trajectories of delay vectors shows respiratory system nonlinear character and its sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Reproducibility of respiratory signal can be evaluated with measures of signal complexity and its predictability window. Longer respiratory period is conducive for signal reproducibility as shown by these gauges. Statistical independence of the exhale and inhale times is also supported by the magnitude of LLE. The nonlinear parameters seem more appropriate to gauge respiratory signal complexity since its deterministic chaotic nature. It contrasts with measures based on harmonic analysis that are blind for nonlinear features. Dynamics of breathing, so crucial for 4D-based clinical technologies, can be better controlled if nonlinear-based methodology, which reflects respiration characteristic, is applied. Funding provided by Varian Medical Systems via Investigator Initiated Research Project.« less

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

High-Density Signal Interface Electromagnetic Radiation Prediction for Electromagnetic Compatibility Evaluation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halligan, Matthew

Radiated power calculation approaches for practical scenarios of incomplete high- density interface characterization information and incomplete incident power information are presented. The suggested approaches build upon a method that characterizes power losses through the definition of power loss constant matrices. Potential radiated power estimates include using total power loss information, partial radiated power loss information, worst case analysis, and statistical bounding analysis. A method is also proposed to calculate radiated power when incident power information is not fully known for non-periodic signals at the interface. Incident data signals are modeled from a two-state Markov chain where bit state probabilities aremore » derived. The total spectrum for windowed signals is postulated as the superposition of spectra from individual pulses in a data sequence. Statistical bounding methods are proposed as a basis for the radiated power calculation due to the statistical calculation complexity to find a radiated power probability density function.« less

Detection of statistical asymmetries in non-stationary sign time series: Analysis of foreign exchange data

PubMed Central

Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

2017-01-01

We extend the concept of statistical symmetry as the invariance of a probability distribution under transformation to analyze binary sign time series data of price difference from the foreign exchange market. We model segments of the sign time series as Markov sequences and apply a local hypothesis test to evaluate the symmetries of independence and time reversion in different periods of the market. For the test, we derive the probability of a binary Markov process to generate a given set of number of symbol pairs. Using such analysis, we could not only segment the time series according the different behaviors but also characterize the segments in terms of statistical symmetries. As a particular result, we find that the foreign exchange market is essentially time reversible but this symmetry is broken when there is a strong external influence. PMID:28542208

Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

2008-04-01

Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

Spatial analysis of relative humidity during ungauged periods in a mountainous region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Yeonjoo

2017-08-01

Although atmospheric humidity influences environmental and agricultural conditions, thereby influencing plant growth, human health, and air pollution, efforts to develop spatial maps of atmospheric humidity using statistical approaches have thus far been limited. This study therefore aims to develop statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of relative humidity (RH) for a mountainous island, for which data are not uniformly available across the region. A multiple regression analysis based on various mathematical models was used to identify the optimal model for estimating monthly RH by incorporating not only temperature but also location and elevation. Based on the regression analysis, we extended the monthly RH data from weather stations to cover the ungauged periods when no RH observations were available. Then, two different types of station-based data, the observational data and the data extended via the regression model, were used to form grid-based data with a resolution of 100 m. The grid-based data that used the extended station-based data captured the increasing RH trend along an elevation gradient. Furthermore, annual RH values averaged over the regions were examined. Decreasing temporal trends were found in most cases, with magnitudes varying based on the season and region.

Processing of on-board recorded data for quick analysis of aircraft performance. [rotor systems research aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michaud, N. H.

1979-01-01

A system of independent computer programs for the processing of digitized pulse code modulated (PCM) and frequency modulated (FM) data is described. Information is stored in a set of random files and accessed to produce both statistical and graphical output. The software system is designed primarily to present these reports within a twenty-four hour period for quick analysis of the helicopter's performance.

The Thurgood Marshall School of Law Empirical Findings: A Report of the Bar Passing Percentages of Years 2005-2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kadhi, T.; Holley, D.; Garrison, P.; Green, T.; Palasota, A.

2010-01-01

The following report of descriptive statistics gives the passing percentages of the Bar examination for the Thurgood Marshall School of Law (TMSL) for the calendar years of 2005-2009. A Five Year Analysis is given for the entire period, followed by a Three Year Analysis of years 2005-2007, 2006-2008, and 2007-2009. In addition, an Annual Analysis…

Acute rise in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections in a coastal community.

PubMed

Bothwell, Nici Eddy; Shvidler, Joseph; Cable, Benjamin B

2007-12-01

Describe the incidence of head and neck community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) infections over a 5-year period at a coastal tertiary medical center. Retrospective chart review. All patients presenting to the otolaryngology service with cultures taken from head and neck infections between 1999 and 2004 were eligible for inclusion. Statistical analysis was used to determine significance of the changing incidence of isolated organisms over the study period. CA-MRSA infections rose from 21% to 64% over the 5-year period. The increasing trend in CA-MRSA infections reached statistical significance from 2003 to 2004. All CA-MRSA isolates were resistant to cefazolin and penicillin, but most were sensitive to clindamycin. Our data demonstrates a striking increase in the incidence of CA-MRSA. We have tailored our treatment of cutaneous head and neck infections to include empiric treatment for CA-MRSA using clindamycin. Awareness and monitoring of this trend will be important for all practitioners involved in the care of these patients.

Do slow orbital periodicities appear in the record of earth's magnetic reversals?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1987-01-01

Time-series spectral analysis has been performed on the dates of geomagnetic reversals of the last 20 Myr BP and earlier. Possible evidence is found from the presence of high spectral peaks for two very long periodicities, 0.4 Myr and 1.3 Myr, that may be associated with slow variations of the earth's orbital eccentricity as predicted by Berger. However, statistical significance tests and a number of other arguments do not confirm the two detections.

Regional intensity-duration-frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiaei, Farhad; Kankal, Murat; Anilan, Tugce; Yuksek, Omer

2018-01-01

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the ZDIST statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient ( R 2) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and medium sized catchments.

Effect of a stress management program on subjects with neck pain: A pilot randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Metikaridis, T Damianos; Hadjipavlou, Alexander; Artemiadis, Artemios; Chrousos, George; Darviri, Christina

2016-05-20

Studies have shown that stress is implicated in the cause of neck pain (NP). The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of a simple, zero cost stress management program on patients suffering from NP. This study is a parallel-type randomized clinical study. People suffering from chronic non-specific NP were chosen randomly to participate in an eight week duration program of stress management (N= 28) (including diaphragmatic breathing, progressive muscle relaxation) or in a no intervention control condition (N= 25). Self-report measures were used for the evaluation of various variables at the beginning and at the end of the eight-week monitoring period. Descriptive and inferential statistic methods were used for the statistical analysis. At the end of the monitoring period, the intervention group showed a statistically significant reduction of stress and anxiety (p= 0.03, p= 0.01), report of stress related symptoms (p= 0.003), percentage of disability due to NP (p= 0.000) and NP intensity (p= 0.002). At the same time, daily routine satisfaction levels were elevated (p= 0.019). No statistically significant difference was observed in cortisol measurements. Stress management has positive effects on NP patients.

Differences in Mucociliary activity of volunteers undergoing Ramadan versus Nineveh fasting.

PubMed

Develioglu, Omer Necati; Sirazi, Sait; Topak, Murat; Purisa, Sevim; Kulekci, Mehmet

2013-05-01

This study, aimed to evaluate the difference in mucociliary clearance among volunteers who underwent Ramadan versus Nineveh fasting regimens as well as the difference between the fasting period and 4 weeks following the fasting period in both groups. In this study, two different fasting groups were established: Ramadan (fasting for an average of 15 h for 29 consecutive days, n = 40) and Nineveh (60 h of nonstop fasting, n = 26). Subjects in each group underwent saccharin testing twice: at the end of the fasting period prior to resumption of eating and at 4 weeks after the end of Ramadan or Nineveh fasting. Statistical analysis was performed using the Mann-Whitney U-test, Wilcoxon, Chi-square, and paired t test. A p value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Forty subjects who underwent Ramadan fasting and 26 subjects who underwent Nineveh fasting were included in this study. Of the 66 study participants, 34 (51.5 %) were men and 32 (48.5 %) were women. Their median age was 31 years (range 17-70 years) for Nineveh fasting subjects and 40 years (range 17-70 years) for Ramadan fasting subjects. Chi-square tests revealed no significant difference between the Ramadan and Nineveh fasting groups in gender (p = 0.418), and the Mann-Whitney U-test showed no difference in age. A statistically significant difference was found in the mucociliary clearance time between the Nineveh fasting and non-fasting periods (p = 0.013). Using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, we found no significant difference in the mucociliary clearance time between the Ramadan fasting and control (4 weeks after the fasting period) periods (p = 0.121). The percentage difference between the fasting and control periods was similar between groups and was not statistically significant for the Ramadan and Nineveh fasting groups (p = 0.086). The results of the present study indicated that long-term fasting with hypohydration contributed to the deterioration of nasal mucociliary clearance. Our data indicate that optimal hydration, sleep patterns, and fasting times contribute to proper mucociliary clearance.

Geosocial process and its regularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikulina, Marina; Vikulin, Alexander; Dolgaya, Anna

2015-04-01

Natural disasters and social events (wars, revolutions, genocides, epidemics, fires, etc.) accompany each other throughout human civilization, thus reflecting the close relationship of these phenomena that are seemingly of different nature. In order to study this relationship authors compiled and analyzed the list of the 2,400 natural disasters and social phenomena weighted by their magnitude that occurred during the last XXXVI centuries of our history. Statistical analysis was performed separately for each aggregate (natural disasters and social phenomena), and for particular statistically representative types of events. There was 5 + 5 = 10 types. It is shown that the numbers of events in the list are distributed by logarithmic law: the bigger the event, the less likely it happens. For each type of events and each aggregate the existence of periodicities with periods of 280 ± 60 years was established. Statistical analysis of the time intervals between adjacent events for both aggregates showed good agreement with Weibull-Gnedenko distribution with shape parameter less than 1, which is equivalent to the conclusion about the grouping of events at small time intervals. Modeling of statistics of time intervals with Pareto distribution allowed to identify the emergent property for all events in the aggregate. This result allowed the authors to make conclusion about interaction between natural disasters and social phenomena. The list of events compiled by authors and first identified properties of cyclicity, grouping and interaction process reflected by this list is the basis of modeling essentially unified geosocial process at high enough statistical level. Proof of interaction between "lifeless" Nature and Society is fundamental and provided a new approach to forecasting demographic crises with taking into account both natural disasters and social phenomena.

Interim analyses in 2 x 2 crossover trials.

PubMed

Cook, R J

1995-09-01

A method is presented for performing interim analyses in long term 2 x 2 crossover trials with serial patient entry. The analyses are based on a linear statistic that combines data from individuals observed for one treatment period with data from individuals observed for both periods. The coefficients in this linear combination can be chosen quite arbitrarily, but we focus on variance-based weights to maximize power for tests regarding direct treatment effects. The type I error rate of this procedure is controlled by utilizing the joint distribution of the linear statistics over analysis stages. Methods for performing power and sample size calculations are indicated. A two-stage sequential design involving simultaneous patient entry and a single between-period interim analysis is considered in detail. The power and average number of measurements required for this design are compared to those of the usual crossover trial. The results indicate that, while there is minimal loss in power relative to the usual crossover design in the absence of differential carry-over effects, the proposed design can have substantially greater power when differential carry-over effects are present. The two-stage crossover design can also lead to more economical studies in terms of the expected number of measurements required, due to the potential for early stopping. Attention is directed toward normally distributed responses.

Analysis of the sleep quality of elderly people using biomedical signals.

PubMed

Moreno-Alsasua, L; Garcia-Zapirain, B; Mendez-Zorrilla, A

2015-01-01

This paper presents a technical solution that analyses sleep signals captured by biomedical sensors to find possible disorders during rest. Specifically, the method evaluates electrooculogram (EOG) signals, skin conductance (GSR), air flow (AS), and body temperature. Next, a quantitative sleep quality analysis determines significant changes in the biological signals, and any similarities between them in a given time period. Filtering techniques such as the Fourier transform method and IIR filters process the signal and identify significant variations. Once these changes have been identified, all significant data is compared and a quantitative and statistical analysis is carried out to determine the level of a person's rest. To evaluate the correlation and significant differences, a statistical analysis has been calculated showing correlation between EOG and AS signals (p=0,005), EOG, and GSR signals (p=0,037) and, finally, the EOG and Body temperature (p=0,04). Doctors could use this information to monitor changes within a patient.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Long-term response of total ozone content at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres caused by solar activity during 1958-2006 (results of regression analysis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivolutsky, Alexei A.; Nazarova, Margarita; Knyazeva, Galina

Solar activity influences on atmospheric photochemical system via its changebale electromag-netic flux with eleven-year period and also by energetic particles during solar proton event (SPE). Energetic particles penetrate mostly into polar regions and induce additional produc-tion of NOx and HOx chemical compounds, which can destroy ozone in photochemical catalytic cycles. Solar irradiance variations cause in-phase variability of ozone in accordance with photo-chemical theory. However, real ozone response caused by these two factors, which has different physical nature, is not so clear on long-term time scale. In order to understand the situation multiply linear regression statistical method was used. Three data series, which covered the period 1958-2006, have been used to realize such analysis: yearly averaged total ozone at dif-ferent latitudes (World Ozone Data Centre, Canada, WMO); yearly averaged proton fluxes with E¿ 10 MeV ( IMP, GOES, METEOR satellites); yearly averaged numbers of solar spots (Solar Data). Then, before the analysis, the data sets of ozone deviations from the mean values for whole period (1958-2006) at each latitudinal belt were prepared. The results of multiply regression analysis (two factors) revealed rather complicated time-dependent behavior of ozone response with clear negative peaks for the years of strong SPEs. The magnitudes of such peaks on annual mean basis are not greater than 10 DU. The unusual effect -positive response of ozone to solar proton activity near both poles-was discovered by statistical analysis. The pos-sible photochemical nature of found effect is discussed. This work was supported by Russian Science Foundation for Basic Research (grant 09-05-009949) and by the contract 1-6-08 under Russian Sub-Program "Research and Investigation of Antarctica".

Biometrical issues in the analysis of adverse events within the benefit assessment of drugs.

PubMed

Bender, Ralf; Beckmann, Lars; Lange, Stefan

2016-07-01

The analysis of adverse events plays an important role in the benefit assessment of drugs. Consequently, results on adverse events are an integral part of reimbursement dossiers submitted by pharmaceutical companies to health policy decision-makers. Methods applied in the analysis of adverse events commonly include simple standard methods for contingency tables. However, the results produced may be misleading if observations are censored at the time of discontinuation due to treatment switching or noncompliance, resulting in unequal follow-up periods. In this paper, we present examples to show that the application of inadequate methods for the analysis of adverse events in the reimbursement dossier can lead to a downgrading of the evidence on a drug's benefit in the subsequent assessment, as greater harm from the drug cannot be excluded with sufficient certainty. Legal regulations on the benefit assessment of drugs in Germany are presented, in particular, with regard to the analysis of adverse events. Differences in safety considerations between the drug approval process and the benefit assessment are discussed. We show that the naive application of simple proportions in reimbursement dossiers frequently leads to uninterpretable results if observations are censored and the average follow-up periods differ between treatment groups. Likewise, the application of incidence rates may be misleading in the case of recurrent events and unequal follow-up periods. To allow for an appropriate benefit assessment of drugs, adequate survival time methods accounting for time dependencies and duration of follow-up are required, not only for time-to-event efficacy endpoints but also for adverse events. © 2016 The Authors. Pharmaceutical Statistics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Pharmaceutical Statistics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of eugenol-based endodontic sealer on the adhesion of intraradicular posts cemented after different periods.

PubMed

Dias, Larissa Lustosa Lima; Giovani, Alessandro Rogério; Silva Sousa, Yara Teresinha Corrêa; Vansan, Luiz Pascoal; Alfredo, Edson; Sousa-Neto, Manoel Damião; Paulino, Silvana Maria

2009-01-01

This study evaluated in vitro the influence of an eugenol-based sealer (EndoFill) on the retention of stainless steel prefabricated posts cemented with zinc phosphate and resin-based (Panavia F) cements after different periods of root canal obturation, using the pull-out test. Sixty upper canines were decoronated and the roots were embedded in resin blocks. The specimens were distributed into 3 groups, according to the period elapsed between canal obturation and post cementation: Group I - immediately; Group II - 72 h and Group III - 4 months. The groups were subdivided according to the type of cement used for post cementation: A - zinc phosphate and B - Panavia F. Following the experimental periods, specimens were subjected to pullout test in an Instron machine with application of tensile force at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min until post dislodgement. The maximum forces required for post removal were recorded (kN) and means were subjected to statistical analysis by 2-way ANOVA and Tukey-Kramer test (alpha=0.001) There were statistically significant differences (p<0.01) between the posts cemented with zinc phosphate cement (0.2112 kN) and Panavia F (0.0501 kN). However, no statistically significant differences (p>0.05) were found between the three post cementation periods, regardless of the cement. It was concluded that the eugenol-based sealer influenced the tensile strength of the posts cemented with the resin cement, but had no influence on the time waited between root canal obturation and post space preparation/post cementation.

EFFECT OF EUGENOL-BASED ENDODONTIC SEALER ON THE ADHESION OF INTRARADICULAR POSTS CEMENTED AFTER DIFFERENT PERIODS

PubMed Central

Dias, Larissa Lustosa Lima; Giovani, Alessandro Rogério; Sousa, Yara Teresinha Corrêa Silva; Vansan, Luiz Pascoal; Alfredo, Edson; Sousa-Neto, Manoel Damião; Paulino, Silvana Maria

2009-01-01

Objective: This study evaluated in vitro the influence of an eugenol-based sealer (EndoFill) on the retention of stainless steel prefabricated posts cemented with zinc phosphate and resin-based (Panavia F) cements after different periods of root canal obturation, using the pull-out test. Material and methods: Sixty upper canines were decoronated and the roots were embedded in resin blocks. The specimens were distributed into 3 groups, according to the period elapsed between canal obturation and post cementation: Group I - immediately; Group II - 72 h and Group III - 4 months. The groups were subdivided according to the type of cement used for post cementation: A - zinc phosphate and B - Panavia F. Following the experimental periods, specimens were subjected to pull- out test in an Instron machine with application of tensile force at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min until post dislodgement. The maximum forces required for post removal were recorded (kN) and means were subjected to statistical analysis by 2-way ANOVA and Tukey-Kramer test (α=0.001) Results: There were statistically significant differences (p<0.01) between the posts cemented with zinc phosphate cement (0.2112 kN) and Panavia F (0.0501 kN). However, no statistically significant differences (p>0.05) were found between the three post cementation periods, regardless of the cement. Conclusions: It was concluded that the eugenol-based sealer influenced the tensile strength of the posts cemented with the resin cement, but had no influence on the time waited between root canal obturation and post space preparation/post cementation. PMID:20027430

Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S; McBride, John; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

2014-01-01

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Locally-Acquired Dengue Transmission in Northern Queensland, Australia, 1993–2012

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S.; McBride, John; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

2014-01-01

Background Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992–1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993–2012. Methods Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Results 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ2 = 15.17, d.f. = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. Conclusions Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas. PMID:24691549

Adjuvant cytostatic therapy of breast cancer as an important factor in the postponing of a relapse and longer survival period.

PubMed

Stula, N

1992-01-01

This prospective clinical study shows the results of the adjuvant cytostatic therapy (ACT) in breast cancer applied to patients in the premenopausal age. Cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil (CMF) group (70 patients): after operative and radiotherapeutic treatment the ACT is applied over the period of six months (six cycles). Control group (71 patients): only operative and radiotherapeutic treatment. Protocol of the ACT: cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil (CMF) over 5 days with a 4-week break. Total 6 cycles. Control period: 10 years. Stratification of patients was made on the basis of the following risk factors: size of the tumour, number of positive lymph nodes of ipsilateral axilla, grade of the differentiation of the tumour, hormonal dependence of the tumour. Statistical method of analysis: actuary calculation, the Hi square test. The results show that the application of the ACT is statistically significant (P < 0.05) in regard to the disease-free interval. However, concerning the survival, the usefulness of its application is present but not statistically significant on the significance level of 5%. The usefulness of the ACT application as regards high risk factors (T3, T4 > or = 4 lymph nodes, grade of differentiation II, III, ER-PR-) is statistically significant (P < 0.05) both in regard to the DFI and survival. Regarding low risk factors the ACT application adversely influenced the results in the control group. This is probably the result of the ACT toxicity. The patients have a favourable prognosis in this subgroup in regard to the staging and biological nature of the tumour. The ACT in the premenopausal age of patients with high risk factors gives a significantly better results concerning the procrastination of relapse and the length of the survival period.

HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickinson, Jesse; Hanson, Randall T.; Predmore, Steven K.

2014-01-01

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Improved score statistics for meta-analysis in single-variant and gene-level association studies.

PubMed

Yang, Jingjing; Chen, Sai; Abecasis, Gonçalo

2018-06-01

Meta-analysis is now an essential tool for genetic association studies, allowing them to combine large studies and greatly accelerating the pace of genetic discovery. Although the standard meta-analysis methods perform equivalently as the more cumbersome joint analysis under ideal settings, they result in substantial power loss under unbalanced settings with various case-control ratios. Here, we investigate the power loss problem by the standard meta-analysis methods for unbalanced studies, and further propose novel meta-analysis methods performing equivalently to the joint analysis under both balanced and unbalanced settings. We derive improved meta-score-statistics that can accurately approximate the joint-score-statistics with combined individual-level data, for both linear and logistic regression models, with and without covariates. In addition, we propose a novel approach to adjust for population stratification by correcting for known population structures through minor allele frequencies. In the simulated gene-level association studies under unbalanced settings, our method recovered up to 85% power loss caused by the standard methods. We further showed the power gain of our methods in gene-level tests with 26 unbalanced studies of age-related macular degeneration . In addition, we took the meta-analysis of three unbalanced studies of type 2 diabetes as an example to discuss the challenges of meta-analyzing multi-ethnic samples. In summary, our improved meta-score-statistics with corrections for population stratification can be used to construct both single-variant and gene-level association studies, providing a useful framework for ensuring well-powered, convenient, cross-study analyses. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Effect of local and global geomagnetic activity on human cardiovascular homeostasis.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Svetla; Stoilova, Irina; Yanev, Toni; Cholakov, Ilia

2004-02-01

The authors investigated the effects of local and planetary geomagnetic activity on human physiology. They collected data in Sofia, Bulgaria, from a group of 86 volunteers during the periods of the autumnal and vernal equinoxes. They used the factors local/planetary geomagnetic activity, day of measurement, gender, and medication use to apply a four-factor multiple analysis of variance. They also used a post hoc analysis to establish the statistical significance of the differences between the average values of the measured physiological parameters in the separate factor levels. In addition, the authors performed correlation analysis between the physiological parameters examined and geophysical factors. The results revealed that geomagnetic changes had a statistically significant influence on arterial blood pressure. Participants expressed this reaction with weak local geomagnetic changes and when major and severe global geomagnetic storms took place.

Data Model Performance in Data Warehousing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rorimpandey, G. C.; Sangkop, F. I.; Rantung, V. P.; Zwart, J. P.; Liando, O. E. S.; Mewengkang, A.

2018-02-01

Data Warehouses have increasingly become important in organizations that have large amount of data. It is not a product but a part of a solution for the decision support system in those organizations. Data model is the starting point for designing and developing of data warehouses architectures. Thus, the data model needs stable interfaces and consistent for a longer period of time. The aim of this research is to know which data model in data warehousing has the best performance. The research method is descriptive analysis, which has 3 main tasks, such as data collection and organization, analysis of data and interpretation of data. The result of this research is discussed in a statistic analysis method, represents that there is no statistical difference among data models used in data warehousing. The organization can utilize four data model proposed when designing and developing data warehouse.

Midsouth forest area trends

Treesearch

Richard A. Birdsey; William H. McWilliams

1986-01-01

The forest inventory and analysis unit of the southern forest experiment stations (Forest Survey) conducts periodic inventories at approximately 10-year intervals of the forest resources of the Midsouth States (fig. 1). This report contains a summary of forest acreage estimates made between 1950 and 1985. The statistics are based on published forest survey reports and...

Forest statistics for Arkansas' Ozark counties - 1995

Treesearch

James F. Rosson; Jack D. London

1997-01-01

Periodic surveys of forest resources are authorized by the Forest Service and Rangeland Renewable Resources Research Act of 1978. These surveys are a continuing, nationwide undertaking by the Regional Experiment Stations of the USDA Forest Service. In the Southern United States, these surveys are conducted by the two Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Research Work...

Spectral Analysis; Applications in Water Pollution Control.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wastler, T. A.

The statistical technique of analyzing data collected at regular intervals to reveal periodic components of the data is described by reference to actual records. The data chosen for illustration include tide height in a river; biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen in the same river; discharged salt into a river system and its relation to…

Forest statistics for Northwest Florida, 1987

Treesearch

Mark J. Brown

1987-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (Forest Survey) Research Work Unit at the Southeastern Forest Experiment Station recently conducted a review of its data processing procedures. During this process, a computer error was discovered which led to inflated estimates of annual removals, net annual growth, and annual mortality for the 1970-1980 remeasurement period in...

Estimation procedures for the combined 1990s periodic forest inventories of California, Oregon, and Washington.

Treesearch

T.M. Barrett

2004-01-01

During the 1990s, forest inventories for California, Oregon, and Washington were conducted by different agencies using different methods. The Pacific Northwest Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis program recently integrated these inventories into a single database. This document briefly describes potential statistical methods for estimating population totals...

Scripted or Non-Scripted: A Comparative Analysis of Two Reading Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bosen, Pamela K.

2014-01-01

The focus of this quantitative comparative study was to analyze school achievement on third-grade reading assessments in 60 similar schools over a three-year period on Washington state standardized criterion-referenced assessments. This study provides statistical data showing the non-scripted programs were consistent for all three years while…

Forest statistics for Arkansas counties - 1995

Treesearch

Jack D. London

1997-01-01

Periodic surveys of forest resources are authorized by the Forest Service and Rangeland Renewable Resources Research Act of 1978. These surveys are a continuing, nationwide undertaking by the Regional Experiment Stations of the USDA Forest Service. In the Southern United States, these surveys are conducted by the two Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Research Work...

Forest statistics for Arkansas' Ouachita counties - 1995

Treesearch

James F. Rosson; Jack D. London

1997-01-01

Periodic surveys of forest resources are authorized by the Forest Service and Rangeland Renewable Resources Research Act of 1978. These surveys are a continuing, nationwide undertaking by the Regional Experiment Stations of the USDA Forest Service. In the Southern United States, these surveys are conducted by the two Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Research Work...

Statistical analysis of the ambiguities in the asteroid period determinations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butkiewicz-Bąk, M.; Kwiatkowski, T.; Bartczak, P.; Dudziński, G.; Marciniak, A.

2017-09-01

Among asteroids there exist ambiguities in their rotation period determinations. They are due to incomplete coverage of the rotation, noise and/or aliases resulting from gaps between separate lightcurves. To help to remove such uncertainties, basic characteristic of the lightcurves resulting from constraints imposed by the asteroid shapes and geometries of observations should be identified. We simulated light variations of asteroids whose shapes were modelled as Gaussian random spheres, with random orientations of spin vectors and phase angles changed every 5° from 0° to 65°. This produced 1.4 million lightcurves. For each simulated lightcurve, Fourier analysis has been made and the harmonic of the highest amplitude was recorded. From the statistical point of view, all lightcurves observed at phase angles α < 30°, with peak-to-peak amplitudes A > 0.2 mag, are bimodal. Second most frequently dominating harmonic is the first one, with the 3rd harmonic following right after. For 1 per cent of lightcurves with amplitudes A < 0.1 mag and phase angles α < 40°, 4th harmonic dominates.

Statistical study on the variations of OH and O2 rotational temperatures observed by SATI at King Sejong Station (62.22S, 58.78W), Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Kim, J. H.; Jee, G.; Lee, C.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager (SATI) installed at King Sejong Station (62.22S, 58.78W), Antarctica, has been continuously measured the airglow emissions from OH (6-2) Meinel and O2 (0-1) atmospheric bands since 2002, in order to investigate the dynamics of the polar MLT region. The measurements allow us to derive the rotational temperature at peak emission heights known as about 87 km and 94 km for OH and O2 airglows, respectively. In this study, we briefly introduce improved analysis technique that modified original analysis code. The major change compared to original program is the improvement of the function to find the exact center position in the observed image. In addition to brief introduction of the improved technique, we also present the results statistically investigating the periodic variations on the temperatures of two layers during the period of 2002 through 2011 and compare our results with those from the temperatures measured by satellite.

Recovery, statistical validation and analysis of a historical meteorological dataset collected at the Hanbury Botanical Gardens (Liguria, northwestern Italy) from 1900 to 1940

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vagge, Greta; Cutroneo, Laura; Gandolfi, Daniela; Ferretti, Gabriele; Scafidi, Davide; Capello, Marco

2018-05-01

A historical set of daily meteorological data collected at the Hanbury Botanical Gardens (Liguria, northwestern Italy) from 1900 to 1940 was recovered from five manually entered registers. They were digitised and statistically analysed to check their reliability and study their trends and variations. In particular, air temperature, precipitation and their extreme values were considered, together with wind direction, sea state, sky conditions and relative humidity. The results show a decreasing trend in mean annual temperature of approximately 0.2 °C/decade due to a decrease in maximum air temperature. Annual cumulative precipitation increased by 65.2 mm/decade over the study period. The data analysis showed a summer temperature decrease in 1912 and a severe drought in 1921. Moreover, the years with most days with extreme temperatures were associated to the negative phases of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). During the study period, SW winds were prevailing. Sky conditions followed seasonal trends, while slight sea was the most frequent sea state.

Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1989-01-01

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

Synthetic Training Data Generation for Activity Monitoring and Behavior Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monekosso, Dorothy; Remagnino, Paolo

This paper describes a data generator that produces synthetic data to simulate observations from an array of environment monitoring sensors. The overall goal of our work is to monitor the well-being of one occupant in a home. Sensors are embedded in a smart home to unobtrusively record environmental parameters. Based on the sensor observations, behavior analysis and modeling are performed. However behavior analysis and modeling require large data sets to be collected over long periods of time to achieve the level of accuracy expected. A data generator - was developed based on initial data i.e. data collected over periods lasting weeks to facilitate concurrent data collection and development of algorithms. The data generator is based on statistical inference techniques. Variation is introduced into the data using perturbation models.

Study of the structure changes caused by volcanic activity in Mexico applying the lineament analysis to the Aster (Terra) satellite data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano-Baeza, A. A.; Garcia, R. V.; Trejo-Soto, M.; Molina-Sauceda, E.

Mexico is one of the most volcanically active regions in North America Volcanic activity in central Mexico is associated with the subduction of the Cocos and Rivera plates beneath the North American plate Periods of enhanced microseismic activity associated with the volcanic activity of the Colima and Popocapetl volcanoes are compared to some periods of low microseismic activity We detected changes in the number and orientation of lineaments associated with the microseismic activity due to lineament analysis of a temporal sequence of high resolution satellite images of both volcanoes 15 m resolution multispectral images provided by the ASTER VNIR instrument were used The Lineament Extraction and Stripes Statistic Analysis LESSA software package was employed for the lineament extraction

Sioux City Riverbank Filtration Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mach, R.; Condon, J.; Johnson, J.

2003-04-01

The City of Sioux City (City) obtains a large percentage of their drinking water supply from both a horizontal collector well system and vertical wells located adjacent to the Missouri River. These wells are set in either the Missouri Alluvium or the Dakota Sandstone aquifer. Several of the collector well laterals extend out beneath the Missouri River, with the laterals being over twenty feet below the river channel bottom. Due to concerns regarding ground water under direct surface water influence, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) required the City to expand their water treatment process to deal with potential surface water contaminant issues. With the extensive cost of these plant upgrades, the City and Olsson Associates (OA) approached the IDNR requesting approval for assessing the degree of natural riverbank filtration for water treatment. If this natural process could be ascertained, the level of treatment from the plant could be reduced. The objective of this study was to quantify the degree of surface water (i.e. Missouri River) filtration due to the underlying Missouri River sediments. Several series of microscopic particulate analysis where conducted, along with tracking of turbidity, temperature, bacteria and a full scale particle count study. Six particle sizes from six sampling points were assessed over a nine-month period that spanned summer, fall and spring weather periods. The project was set up in two phases and utilized industry accepted statistical analyses to identify particle data trends. The first phase consisted of twice daily sample collection from the Missouri River and the collector well system for a one-month period. Statistical analysis of the data indicated reducing the sampling frequency and sampling locations would yield justifiable data while significantly reducing sampling and analysis costs. The IDNR approved this modification, and phase II included sampling and analysis under this reduced plant for an eight-month period. Final statistical analyses of the nine months of data indicate up to a four-log particle reduction occurs through river bank filtration. Consequently, Missouri River sediments within the City's well field are very effective in water filtration. This information was submitted to the IDNR for review and approval. Subsequently, the IDNR approved 4.0 log removal for Giardia and 3.5 log removal for Cryptosporidium through the riverbank and treatment plant. The City and IDNR have agreed on subrogate parameters for monitoring purposes.

Statistical Analysis of Small-Scale Magnetic Flux Emergence Patterns: A Useful Subsurface Diagnostic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Derek A.

2016-10-01

While sunspots follow a well-defined pattern of emergence in space and time, small-scale flux emergence is assumed to occur randomly at all times in the quiet Sun. HMI's full-disk coverage, high cadence, spatial resolution, and duty cycle allow us to probe that basic assumption. Some case studies of emergence suggest that temporal clustering on spatial scales of 50-150 Mm may occur. If clustering is present, it could serve as a diagnostic of large-scale subsurface magnetic field structures. We present the results of a manual survey of small-scale flux emergence events over a short time period, and a statistical analysis addressing the question of whether these events show spatio-temporal behavior that is anything other than random.

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

The dynamics of the Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen seasons in the context of climate change (SW Poland).

PubMed

Malkiewicz, Małgorzata; Drzeniecka-Osiadacz, Anetta; Krynicka, Justyna

2016-12-15

The changes in the main features of early spring tree or shrub pollen seasons are important due to the significant impact on the occurrence of pollen-related allergy symptoms. This study shows the results of pollen monitoring for a period of eleven years (2003-2013) using a Burkard volumetric spore trap. The main characteristics of the hazel, alder, and birch pollination season were studied in Wrocław (SW Poland). The statistical analyses do not show a significant trend of annual total pollen count or shift in timing of the pollen season in the period of analysis. The research confirms a great impact (at the statistically significant level of 0.05) of the heat resources on pollination season (the value of the correlation coefficient ranges from -0.63 up to -0.87). Meteorological variables (e.g. sum of temperature for selected period) were compiled to 5-year running means to examine trends. Changes in the pollination period features due to climate change including both timing and intensity of pollen productivity, would have important consequences for allergy sufferers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of high-frequency vibration transmission across coupled, periodic ribbed plates by incorporating tunneling mechanisms.

PubMed

Yin, Jianfei; Hopkins, Carl

2013-04-01

Prediction of structure-borne sound transmission on built-up structures at audio frequencies is well-suited to Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) although the inclusion of periodic ribbed plates presents challenges. This paper considers an approach using Advanced SEA (ASEA) that can incorporate tunneling mechanisms within a statistical approach. The coupled plates used for the investigation form an L-junction comprising a periodic ribbed plate with symmetric ribs and an isotropic homogeneous plate. Experimental SEA (ESEA) is carried out with input data from Finite Element Methods (FEM). This indicates that indirect coupling is significant at high frequencies where bays on the periodic ribbed plate can be treated as individual subsystems. SEA using coupling loss factors from wave theory leads to significant underestimates in the energy of the bays when the isotropic homogeneous plate is excited. This is due to the absence of tunneling mechanisms in the SEA model. In contrast, ASEA shows close agreement with FEM and laboratory measurements. The errors incurred with SEA rapidly increase as the bays become more distant from the source subsystem. ASEA provides significantly more accurate predictions by accounting for the spatial filtering that leads to non-diffuse vibration fields on these more distant bays.

Chronological analysis of architectural and acoustical indices in music performance halls.

PubMed

Kwon, Youngmin; Siebein, Gary W

2007-05-01

This study aims to identify the changes in architectural and acoustical indices in halls for music performance built in the 18th through the 20th Centuries. Seventy-one halls are classified in five specific periods from the Classical Period (1751-1820) to the Contemporary Period (1981-2000) based on chronology in music and architectural acoustics. Architectural indices such as room shape, seating capacity, room volume, balcony configuration, and the like as well as acoustical indices such as RT, EDT, G, C80, IACC, and the like for the halls found in the literature are chronologically tabulated and statistically analyzed to identify trends and relationships in architectural and acoustical design for each of the historical periods identified. Some indices appear correlated with each other.

EVALUATION OF THE EXTRACELLULAR MATRIX OF INJURED SUPRASPINATUS IN RATS

PubMed Central

Almeida, Luiz Henrique Oliveira; Ikemoto, Roberto; Mader, Ana Maria; Pinhal, Maria Aparecida Silva; Munhoz, Bruna; Murachovsky, Joel

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the evolution of injuries of the supraspinatus muscle by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and anatomopathological analysis in animal model (Wistar rats). Methods: Twenty-five Wistar rats were submitted to complete injury of the supraspinatus tendon, then subsequently sacrificed in groups of five animals at the following periods: immediately after the injury, 24h after the injury, 48h after, 30 days after and three months after the injury. All groups underwent histological and IHC analysis. Results: Regarding vascular proliferation and inflammatory infiltrate, we found a statistically significant difference between groups 1(control group) and 2 (24h after injury). IHC analysis showed that expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) showed a statistically significant difference between groups 1 and 2, and collagen type 1 (Col-1) evaluation presented a statistically significant difference between groups 1 and 4. Conclusion: We observed changes in the extracellular matrix components compatible with remodeling and healing. Remodeling is more intense 24h after injury. However, VEGF and Col-1 are substantially increased at 24h and 30 days after the injury, respectively. Level of Evidence I, Experimental Study. PMID:26997907

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q . The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes.

PubMed

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q. The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

Statistical analysis of the calibration procedure for personnel radiation measurement instruments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, W.J.; Bengston, S.J.; Kalbeitzer, F.L.

1980-11-01

Thermoluminescent analyzer (TLA) calibration procedures were used to estimate personnel radiation exposure levels at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). A statistical analysis is presented herein based on data collected over a six month period in 1979 on four TLA's located in the Department of Energy (DOE) Radiological and Environmental Sciences Laboratory at the INEL. The data were collected according to the day-to-day procedure in effect at that time. Both gamma and beta radiation models are developed. Observed TLA readings of thermoluminescent dosimeters are correlated with known radiation levels. This correlation is then used to predict unknown radiation doses frommore » future analyzer readings of personnel thermoluminescent dosimeters. The statistical techniques applied in this analysis include weighted linear regression, estimation of systematic and random error variances, prediction interval estimation using Scheffe's theory of calibration, the estimation of the ratio of the means of two normal bivariate distributed random variables and their corresponding confidence limits according to Kendall and Stuart, tests of normality, experimental design, a comparison between instruments, and quality control.« less

Building a database for statistical characterization of ELMs on DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritch, B. J.; Marinoni, A.; Bortolon, A.

2017-10-01

Edge localized modes (ELMs) are bursty instabilities which occur in the edge region of H-mode plasmas and have the potential to damage in-vessel components of future fusion machines by exposing the divertor region to large energy and particle fluxes during each ELM event. While most ELM studies focus on average quantities (e.g. energy loss per ELM), this work investigates the statistical distributions of ELM characteristics, as a function of plasma parameters. A semi-automatic algorithm is being used to create a database documenting trigger times of the tens of thousands of ELMs for DIII-D discharges in scenarios relevant to ITER, thus allowing statistically significant analysis. Probability distributions of inter-ELM periods and energy losses will be determined and related to relevant plasma parameters such as density, stored energy, and current in order to constrain models and improve estimates of the expected inter-ELM periods and sizes, both of which must be controlled in future reactors. Work supported in part by US DoE under the Science Undergraduate Laboratory Internships (SULI) program, DE-FC02-04ER54698 and DE-FG02- 94ER54235.

An observational method for fast stochastic X-ray polarimetry timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingram, Adam R.; Maccarone, Thomas J.

2017-11-01

The upcoming launch of the first space based X-ray polarimeter in ˜40 yr will provide powerful new diagnostic information to study accreting compact objects. In particular, analysis of rapid variability of the polarization degree and angle will provide the opportunity to probe the relativistic motions of material in the strong gravitational fields close to the compact objects, and enable new methods to measure black hole and neutron star parameters. However, polarization properties are measured in a statistical sense, and a statistically significant polarization detection requires a fairly long exposure, even for the brightest objects. Therefore, the sub-minute time-scales of interest are not accessible using a direct time-resolved analysis of polarization degree and angle. Phase-folding can be used for coherent pulsations, but not for stochastic variability such as quasi-periodic oscillations. Here, we introduce a Fourier method that enables statistically robust detection of stochastic polarization variability for arbitrarily short variability time-scales. Our method is analogous to commonly used spectral-timing techniques. We find that it should be possible in the near future to detect the quasi-periodic swings in polarization angle predicted by Lense-Thirring precession of the inner accretion flow. This is contingent on the mean polarization degree of the source being greater than ˜4-5 per cent, which is consistent with the best current constraints on Cygnus X-1 from the late 1970s.

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heat wave phenomenon in southern Slovakia: long-term changes and variability of daily maximum air temperature in Hurbanovo within the 1901-2009 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Výberči, D.; Jarošová, M.; Å¥Astný, P. Å.

2010-09-01

Analysis of long-term changes and temporal variability of heat waves incidence in the region of southern Slovakia within the 1901-2009 periods is a goal of the presented contribution. It is expected that climate change in terms of global warming would amplify temporal frequency and spatial extension of extreme heat wave incidence in region of central Europe in the next few decades. The frequency of occurrence and amplitude of heat waves may be impacted by changes in the temperature regime. Heat waves can cause severe thermal environmental stress leading to higher hospital admission rates, health complications, and increased mortality. These effects arise because of one or more meteorology-related factors such as higher effective temperatures, sunshine, more consecutive hot days and nights, stagnation, increased humidity, increased pollutant emissions, and accelerated photochemical smog and particulate formation. Heat waves bring about higher temperatures, increased solar heating of buildings, inhibited ventilation, and a larger number of consecutive warm days and nights. All of these effects increase the thermal loads on buildings, reduce their ability to cool down, and increase indoor temperatures. The paper is focused to analysis of long-term and inter-decadal temporal variability of heat waves occurrence at meteorological station Hurbanovo (time-series of daily maximum air temperature available from at least 1901). We can characterize the heat waves by its magnitude and duration, hence both of these characteristics need to be investigated together using sophisticated statistical methods developed particularly for the analysis of extreme hydrological events. We investigated particular heat wave periods either from the severity point of view using HWI index. In the paper we also present the results of statistical analysis of daily maximum air temperature within 1901-2009 period. Apart from these investigation efforts we also focused on synoptic causes of heat wave incidence in connection with macro scale circulation patterns in central European region.

A statistical analysis of the daily streamflow hydrograph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavvas, M. L.; Delleur, J. W.

1984-03-01

In this study a periodic statistical analysis of daily streamflow data in Indiana, U.S.A., was performed to gain some new insight into the stochastic structure which describes the daily streamflow process. This analysis was performed by the periodic mean and covariance functions of the daily streamflows, by the time and peak discharge -dependent recession limb of the daily streamflow hydrograph, by the time and discharge exceedance level (DEL) -dependent probability distribution of the hydrograph peak interarrival time, and by the time-dependent probability distribution of the time to peak discharge. Some new statistical estimators were developed and used in this study. In general features, this study has shown that: (a) the persistence properties of daily flows depend on the storage state of the basin at the specified time origin of the flow process; (b) the daily streamflow process is time irreversible; (c) the probability distribution of the daily hydrograph peak interarrival time depends both on the occurrence time of the peak from which the inter-arrival time originates and on the discharge exceedance level; and (d) if the daily streamflow process is modeled as the release from a linear watershed storage, this release should depend on the state of the storage and on the time of the release as the persistence properties and the recession limb decay rates were observed to change with the state of the watershed storage and time. Therefore, a time-varying reservoir system needs to be considered if the daily streamflow process is to be modeled as the release from a linear watershed storage.

Field-Scale Soil Moisture Observations in Irrigated Agriculture Fields Using the Cosmic-ray Neutron Rover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, T. E.; Avery, W. A.; Finkenbiner, C. E.; Wang, T.; Brocca, L.

2014-12-01

Approximately 40% of global food production comes from irrigated agriculture. With the increasing demand for food even greater pressures will be placed on water resources within these systems. In this work we aimed to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of soil moisture at the field-scale (~500 m) using the newly developed cosmic-ray neutron rover near Waco, NE. Here we mapped soil moisture of 144 quarter section fields (a mix of maize, soybean, and natural areas) each week during the 2014 growing season (May to September). The 11 x11 km study domain also contained 3 stationary cosmic-ray neutron probes for independent validation of the rover surveys. Basic statistical analysis of the domain indicated a strong inverted parabolic relationship between the mean and variance of soil moisture. The relationship between the mean and higher order moments were not as strong. Geostatistical analysis indicated the range of the soil moisture semi-variogram was significantly shorter during periods of heavy irrigation as compared to non-irrigated periods. Scaling analysis indicated strong power law behavior between the variance of soil moisture and averaging area with minimal dependence of mean soil moisture on the slope of the power law function. Statistical relationships derived from the rover dataset offer a novel set of observations that will be useful in: 1) calibrating and validating land surface models, 2) calibrating and validating crop models, 3) soil moisture covariance estimates for statistical downscaling of remote sensing products such as SMOS and SMAP, and 4) provide center-pivot scale mean soil moisture data for optimal irrigation timing and volume amounts.

Analysis on Time-Lag Effect of Research and Development Investment in the Pharmaceutical Industry in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Munjae; Choi, Mankyu

2015-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of the research and development (R&D) investment of pharmaceutical companies on enterprise value. Methods The period of the empirical analysis is from 2000 to 2012, considering the period after the influence of the financial crisis. Financial statements and comments in general and internal transactions were extracted from TS-2000 of the Korea Listed Company Association, and data related to stock price were extracted from KISVALUE-III of National Information and Credit Evaluation Information Service Co., Ltd. STATA 12.0 was used as the statistical package for panel analysis. Results In the pharmaceutical firms, the influence of the R&D intensity with regard to Tobin's q was found to be positive. However, only the R&D expenditure intensities of previous years 2 and 5 (t–2 and t–5, respectively) were statistically significant (p < 0.1), whereas those of previous years 1, 3, and 4 years (t–1, t–3, and t–4, respectively) were not statistically significant. Conclusion R&D investment not only affects the enterprise value but is also evaluated as an investment activity that raises the long-term enterprise value. The research findings will serve as valuable data to understand the enterprise value of the Korea pharmaceutical industry and to strengthen reform measures. Not only should new drug development be made, but also investment and support should be provided according to the specific factors suitable to improve the competitiveness of each company, such as generic, incrementally modified drugs, and biosimilar products. PMID:26473091

Analysis on Time-Lag Effect of Research and Development Investment in the Pharmaceutical Industry in Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Munjae; Choi, Mankyu

2015-08-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of the research and development (R&D) investment of pharmaceutical companies on enterprise value. The period of the empirical analysis is from 2000 to 2012, considering the period after the influence of the financial crisis. Financial statements and comments in general and internal transactions were extracted from TS-2000 of the Korea Listed Company Association, and data related to stock price were extracted from KISVALUE-III of National Information and Credit Evaluation Information Service Co., Ltd. STATA 12.0 was used as the statistical package for panel analysis. In the pharmaceutical firms, the influence of the R&D intensity with regard to Tobin's q was found to be positive. However, only the R&D expenditure intensities of previous years 2 and 5 (t-2 and t-5, respectively) were statistically significant (p < 0.1), whereas those of previous years 1, 3, and 4 years (t-1, t-3, and t-4, respectively) were not statistically significant. R&D investment not only affects the enterprise value but is also evaluated as an investment activity that raises the long-term enterprise value. The research findings will serve as valuable data to understand the enterprise value of the Korea pharmaceutical industry and to strengthen reform measures. Not only should new drug development be made, but also investment and support should be provided according to the specific factors suitable to improve the competitiveness of each company, such as generic, incrementally modified drugs, and biosimilar products.

Maxillary distraction osteogenesis in the adolescent cleft patient: three-dimensional computed tomography analysis of linear and volumetric changes over five years.

PubMed

Chen, Philip Kuo-Ting; Por, Yong-Chen; Liou, Eric Jein-Wein; Chang, Frank Chun-Shin

2011-07-01

To assess the results of maxillary distraction osteogenesis with the Rigid External Distraction System using three-dimensional computed tomography scan volume-rendered images with respect to stability and facial growth at three time frames: preoperative (T0), 1-year postoperative (T1), and 5-years postoperative (T2). Retrospective analysis. Tertiary. A total of 12 patients with severe cleft maxillary hypoplasia were treated between June 30, 1997, and July 15, 1998. The mean age at surgery was 11 years 1 month. Le Fort I maxillary distraction osteogenesis. Distraction was started 2 to 5 days postsurgery at a rate of 1 mm per day. The consolidation period was 3 months. No face mask was used. A paired t test was used for statistical analysis. Overjet, ANB, and SNA and maxillary, pterygoid, and mandibular volumes. From T0 to T1, there were statistically significant increments of overjet, ANB, and SNA and maxillary, pterygoid, and mandibular volumes. The T1 to T2 period demonstrated a reduction of overjet (30.07%) and ANB (54.42%). The maxilla showed a stable SNA and a small but statistically significant advancement of the ANS point. There was a significant increase in the mandibular volume. However, there was no significant change in the maxillary and pterygoid volumes. Maxillary distraction osteogenesis demonstrated linear and volumetric maxillary growth during the distraction phase without clinically significant continued growth thereafter. Overcorrection is required to take into account recurrence of midface retrusion over the long term.

Eclipse timings of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676: Statistical arguments against orbital period changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hertz, Paul; Wood, Kent S.; Cominsky, Lynn

1995-01-01

EXO 0748-676, an eclipsing low-mass X-ray binary, is one of only about four or five low-mass X-ray binaries for which orbital period evolution has been reported. We observed a single eclipse egress with ROSAT . The time of this egress is consistent with the apparent increase in P(sub orb) previously reported on the basis of EXOSAT and Ginga observations. Standard analysis, in which O-C (observed minus calculated) timing residuals are examined for deviations from a constant period, implicitly assume that the only uncertainty in each residual is measurement error and that these errors are independent. We argue that the variable eclipse durations and profiles observed in EXO 0748-676 imply that there is an additional source of uncertainty in timing measurements, that this uncertainty is intrinsic to the binary system, and that it is correlated from observation to observation with a variance which increases as a function of the number of binary cycles between observations. This intrinsic variability gives rise to spurious trends in O-C residuals which are misinterpreted as changes in the orbital period. We describe several statistics tests which can be used to test for the presence of intrinsic variability. We apply those statistical tests which are suitable to the EXO 0748-676 observations. The apparent changes in the orbital period of EXO 0748-676 can be completely accounted for by intrinsic variability with an rms variability of approximately 0.35 s per orbital cycle. The variability appears to be correlated from cycle-to-cycle on timescales of less than 1 yr. We suggest that the intrinsic variability is related to slow changes in either the source's X-ray luminosity or the structure of the companion star's atmosphere. We note that several other X-ray binaries and cataclysmic variables have previously reported orbital period changes which may also be due to intrinsic variability rather than orbital period evolution.

A statistical probe into variability within total ozone time series over Arosa, Switzerland (9.68°E, 46.78°N)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborthy, Parthasarathi; Chattopadhyay, Surajit

2013-02-01

Endeavor of the present paper is to investigate the statistical properties of the total ozone concentration time series over Arosa, Switzerland (9.68°E, 46.78°N). For this purpose, different statistical data analysis procedures have been employed for analyzing the mean monthly total ozone concentration data, collected over a period of 40 years (1932-1971), at the above location. Based on the computations on the available data set, the study reports different degrees of variations in different months. The month of July is reported as the month of lowest variability. April and May are found to be the most correlated months with respect to total ozone concentration.

Detection of semi-volatile organic compounds in permeable ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Abstract The Edison Environmental Center (EEC) has a research and demonstration permeable parking lot comprised of three different permeable systems: permeable asphalt, porous concrete and interlocking concrete permeable pavers. Water quality and quantity analysis has been ongoing since January, 2010. This paper describes a subset of the water quality analysis, analysis of semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) to determine if hydrocarbons were in water infiltrated through the permeable surfaces. SVOCs were analyzed in samples collected from 11 dates over a 3 year period, from 2/8/2010 to 4/1/2013.Results are broadly divided into three categories: 42 chemicals were never detected; 12 chemicals (11 chemical test) were detected at a rate of less than 10% or less; and 22 chemicals were detected at a frequency of 10% or greater (ranging from 10% to 66.5% detections). Fundamental and exploratory statistical analyses were performed on these latter analyses results by grouping results by surface type. The statistical analyses were limited due to low frequency of detections and dilutions of samples which impacted detection limits. The infiltrate data through three permeable surfaces were analyzed as non-parametric data by the Kaplan-Meier estimation method for fundamental statistics; there were some statistically observable difference in concentration between pavement types when using Tarone-Ware Comparison Hypothesis Test. Additionally Spearman Rank order non-parame

Do pregnancy, postpartum period and lactation predispose to recurrent toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis?

PubMed

Brydak-Godowska, Joanna; Borkowski, Piotr Karol; Rabczenko, Daniel; Moneta-Wielgoś, Joanna; Kęcik, Dariusz

2015-02-23

The aim of the study was a statistical analysis of the possible effects of pregnancy, postpartum period, and lactation on increased risk for reactivation of toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis. A retrospective study was undertaken of the clinical records of 661 patients referred with the diagnosis of acute toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis to the Department of Zoonoses and Tropical Diseases, Medical University of Warsaw and to the Department of Ophthalmology, Medical University of Warsaw in the years 1994-2014. This group of inpatients consisted of 213 women of child-bearing age (18 to 40 years). Reactivation of toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis was observed in 24 women aged 15 to 39 years who were pregnant, in the postpartum period, or lactating. To compare the rate of the relapses in pregnant/lactating patients vs. non-pregnant/non-lactating patients, the Fisher exact test was used. Calculations were performed with WinPepi software (Abramson JH (2004) WINPEPI (PEPI-for-Windows) for epidemiologists. Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations, 2005, 1: 6). A total of 28 reactivations of toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis were observed (16 episodes in pregnancy, 4 in the postpartum period, and 8 during lactation) in 24 women aged 15 to 39 years. In 3 women, multiple episodes were reported (in early pregnancy and the postpartum period in 2 women, and during 2 pregnancies and lactation in 1 woman). Statistical analysis showed that the risk of an episode of toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis is 7.4-fold higher in pregnancy compared to the non-pregnant/non-lactating women (p<0.0001). Women of childbearing age with toxoplasma ocular lesions should be informed by their doctors about possible active recurrences during pregnancy and should be followed carefully by an ophthalmologist when pregnant.

Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

PubMed

Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

2015-10-01

The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively).

Age-period-cohort analysis of suicides among Japanese 1950-2003: a Bayesian cohort model analysis.

PubMed

Ooe, Yosuke; Ohno, Yuko; Nakamura, Takashi

2009-07-01

The suicide rate in Japan is one of the highest in the world and presents us with a considerable challenge. Demographic statistics show that the number of suicides is on the rise, and at roughly 30,000 people per year have committed suicide since 1998. Suicide trends are not only related to economic boom and bust but also to certain generations and age groups. During the 1950s, there was a remarkably high suicide rate among people in their 20s, and this cohort was identical to that of the middle-age generation in the 1980s. It is important to separately understand both the trend of suicide rates and the numbers analyzed to determine the different factors that influence suicide. These include age, time period, cohort, interaction between age and time period, and changes in population composition. We performed an age-period-cohort analysis of annual trends of suicide rates by age group in Japan using a Bayesian cohort model. With the help of the Nakamura method, we have been able to break down the effects of age, time period, cohort, and the age-by-period interaction. The cohort comprised of people born in the 1930s demonstrated a relatively high suicide rate. Men currently in their 50s also belong to a high suicide rate cohort. Regarding the period effect, business cycles and by-period interaction effect, it became apparent that the high suicide rate among young adults in their early 20s around 1960 was slowing, especially among men. Instead, there was an obvious recent trend for men in their late 50s to have the highest suicide rate. This study confirmed that age-period-cohort analysis can describe these trends of suicide mortality of the Japanese.

Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

2009-06-01

When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigelson, Eric

NASA's Kepler mission is the source of more exoplanets than any other instrument, but the discovery depends on complex statistical analysis procedures embedded in the Kepler pipeline. A particular challenge is mitigating irregular stellar variability without loss of sensitivity to faint periodic planetary transits. This proposal presents a two-stage alternative analysis procedure. First, parametric autoregressive ARFIMA models, commonly used in econometrics, remove most of the stellar variations. Second, a novel matched filter is used to create a periodogram from which transit-like periodicities are identified. This analysis procedure, the Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS), is confirming most of the Kepler Objects of Interest and is expected to identify additional planetary candidates. The proposed research will complete application of the KARPS methodology to the prime Kepler mission light curves of 200,000: stars, and compare the results with Kepler Objects of Interest obtained with the Kepler pipeline. We will then conduct a variety of astronomical studies based on the KARPS results. Important subsamples will be extracted including Habitable Zone planets, hot super-Earths, grazing-transit hot Jupiters, and multi-planet systems. Groundbased spectroscopy of poorly studied candidates will be performed to better characterize the host stars. Studies of stellar variability will then be pursued based on KARPS analysis. The autocorrelation function and nonstationarity measures will be used to identify spotted stars at different stages of autoregressive modeling. Periodic variables with folded light curves inconsistent with planetary transits will be identified; they may be eclipsing or mutually-illuminating binary star systems. Classification of stellar variables with KARPS-derived statistical properties will be attempted. KARPS procedures will then be applied to archived K2 data to identify planetary transits and characterize stellar variability.

Occurrence and transport of pesticides and alkylphenols in water samples along the Ebro River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro, Alícia; Tauler, Romà; Lacorte, Sílvia; Barceló, Damià

2010-03-01

SummaryWe report the temporal and geographical variations of a set of 30 pesticides (including triazines, organophosphorus and acetanilides) and industrial compounds in surface waters along the Ebro River during the period 2004-2006. Using descriptive statistics we found that the compounds with industrial origin (tributylphosphate, octylphenol and nonylphenol) appeared in over 60% of the samples analyzed and at very high concentrations, while pesticides had a point source origin in the Ebro delta area and overall low-levels, between 0.005 and 2.575 μg L -1. Correlations among pollutants and their distributions were studied using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a multivariate exploratory data analysis technique which permitted us to discern between agricultural and industrial source contamination. Over a 3 years period a seasonal trend revealed highest concentrations of pesticides over the spring-summer period following pesticide application.

A procedure of multiple period searching in unequally spaced time-series with the Lomb-Scargle method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Dongen, H. P.; Olofsen, E.; VanHartevelt, J. H.; Kruyt, E. W.; Dinges, D. F. (Principal Investigator)

1999-01-01

Periodogram analysis of unequally spaced time-series, as part of many biological rhythm investigations, is complicated. The mathematical framework is scattered over the literature, and the interpretation of results is often debatable. In this paper, we show that the Lomb-Scargle method is the appropriate tool for periodogram analysis of unequally spaced data. A unique procedure of multiple period searching is derived, facilitating the assessment of the various rhythms that may be present in a time-series. All relevant mathematical and statistical aspects are considered in detail, and much attention is given to the correct interpretation of results. The use of the procedure is illustrated by examples, and problems that may be encountered are discussed. It is argued that, when following the procedure of multiple period searching, we can even benefit from the unequal spacing of a time-series in biological rhythm research.

Multidimensional Scaling Analysis of the Dynamics of a Country Economy

PubMed Central

Mata, Maria Eugénia

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process. PMID:24294132

Low and High Frequency Models of Response Statistics of a Cylindrical Orthogrid Vehicle Panel to Acoustic Excitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David; Gardner, Bryce; Cotoni, Vincent

2010-01-01

This presentation further develops the orthogrid vehicle panel work. Employed Hybrid Module capabilities to assess both low/mid frequency and high frequency models in the VA One simulation environment. The response estimates from three modeling approaches are compared to ground test measurements. Detailed Finite Element Model of the Test Article -Expect to capture both the global panel modes and the local pocket mode response, but at a considerable analysis expense (time & resources). A Composite Layered Construction equivalent global stiffness approximation using SEA -Expect to capture response of the global panel modes only. An SEA approximation using the Periodic Subsystem Formulation. A finite element model of a single periodic cell is used to derive the vibroacoustic properties of the entire periodic structure (modal density, radiation efficiency, etc. Expect to capture response at various locations on the panel (on the skin and on the ribs) with less analysis expense

Structure in gamma ray burst time profiles: Statistical Analysis 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lestrade, John Patrick

1992-01-01

Since its launch on April 5, 1991, the Burst And Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) has observed and recorded over 500 gamma-ray bursts (GRB). The analysis of the time profiles of these bursts has proven to be difficult. Attempts to find periodicities through Fourier analysis have been fruitless except one celebrated case. Our goal is to be able to qualify the observed time-profiles structure. Before applying this formation to bursts, we have tested it on profiles composed of random Poissonian noise. This paper is a report of those preliminary results.

A comparison of several techniques for imputing tree level data

Treesearch

David Gartner

2002-01-01

As Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) changes from periodic surveys to the multipanel annual survey, new analytical methods become available. The current official statistic is the moving average. One alternative is an updated moving average. Several methods of updating plot per acre volume have been discussed previously. However, these methods may not be appropriate...

Video Games as a Context for Numeracy Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Troy A.; Wiest, Lynda R.

2013-01-01

Troy Thomas and Lynda Wiest share an engaging lesson on statistics involving analysis of real-world data on the top ten video game sales in the United States during a one-week period. Three upper-primary classes completed the lesson, providing insight into the lesson's effectiveness. The lesson description includes attention to the manner in which…

78 FR 49403 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Pennsylvania; Determination of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-14

... requirement for one or more quarters during 2010-2012 monitoring period. EPA has addressed missing data from... recorded values are substituted for the missing data, and the resulting 24-hour design value is compared to... missing data from the Greensburg monitor by performing a statistical analysis of the data, in which a...

Selected 1966-69 interior Alaska wildfire statistics with long-term comparisons.

Treesearch

Richard J. Barney

1971-01-01

This paper presents selected interior Alaska forest and range wildfire statistics for the period 1966-69. Comparisons are made with the decade 1956-65 and the 30-year period 1940-69, which are essentially the total recorded statistical history on wildfires available for Alaska.

A twelve-year profile of students' SAT scores, GPAs, and MCAT scores from a small university's premedical program.

PubMed

Montague, J R; Frei, J K

1993-04-01

To determine whether significant correlations existed among quantitative and qualitative predictors of students' academic success and quantitative outcomes of such success over a 12-year period in a small university's premedical program. A database was assembled from information on the 199 graduates who earned BS degrees in biology from Barry University's School of Natural and Health Sciences from 1980 through 1991. The quantitative variables were year of BS degree, total score on the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT), various measures of undergraduate grade-point averages (GPAs), and total score on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT); and the qualitative variables were minority (54% of the students) or majority status and transfer (about one-third of the students) or nontransfer status. The statistical methods were multiple analysis of variance and stepwise multiple regression. Statistically significant positive correlations were found among SAT total scores, final GPAs, biology GPAs versus nonbiology GPAs, and MCAT total scores. These correlations held for transfer versus nontransfer students and for minority versus majority students. Over the 12-year period there were significant fluctuations in mean MCAT scores. The students' SAT scores and GPAs proved to be statistically reliable predictors of MCAT scores, but the minority or majority status and the transfer or nontransfer status of the students were statistically insignificant.

A statistical approach to bioclimatic trend detection in the airborne pollen records of Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Belmonte, Jordina; Delgado, Rosario; De Linares, Concepción

2014-04-01

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health.

Water-quality trends for selected sites in the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds, Montana, based on data collected during water years 1997-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Clark, Melanie L.; Cleasby, Thomas E.; Barnhart, Elliott P.

2015-01-01

Trend results for sites in the Tenmile Creek watershed generally are more variable and difficult to interpret than for sites in the Boulder River watershed. Trend results for Tenmile Creek above City Diversion (site 11) and Minnehaha Creek near Rimini (site 12) for water years 2000–13 indicate decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium, copper, and zinc. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of copper generally are moderate and statistically significant for sites 11 and 12. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium and zinc for site 11 are minor to small and not statistically significant; however, the magnitudes for site 12 are moderate and statistically significant. In general, patterns in FACs for Tenmile Creek near Rimini (site 13) are not well represented by fitted trends within the short data collection period, which might indicate that the trend-analysis structure of the study is not appropriate for describing trends in FACs for site 13. The large decreasing trend in FACs of suspended sediment is the strongest indication of change in water quality during the short period of record for site 13; however, this trend is not statistically significant.

Oil industry and road traffic fatalities in contemporary Colombia.

PubMed

Tasciotti, Luca; Alejo, Didier; Romero, Andrés

2016-12-01

This paper studies the effects that oil extraction activities in Colombia have on the number of dead/injured people as a consequence of road-related accidents. Starting in 2004, the increasing exploitation of oil wells in some Colombian departments has worsened the traffic conditions due to the increased presence of trucks transporting crude oil from the wells to the refineries; this phenomenon has not been accompanied by an improvement in the road system with dramatic consequences in terms of road viability. The descriptive and empirical analysis presented here focuses on the period 2004-2011; results from descriptive statistics indicate a positive relationship between the presence of oil extraction activities and the number of either dead/injured people. Panel regressions for the period 2004-2011 confirm that, among other factors, the presence of oil-extraction activities did play a positive and statistical significant role in increasing the number of dead/injured people.

Validation and statistical analysis of temperature, humidity profiles and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) from microwave measurements over Granada (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedoya, Andres; Navas-Guzmán, Francisco; Guerrero-Rascado, Juan Luis; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas

2017-04-01

Profiles of meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity and integrated water vapor derived from a ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR, RPG-HATPRO) are continuously monitored since 2012 at Granada station (Southeastern Spain). During this period up to 210 collocated meteorological balloons, equipped with a radiosonde DFM-09 (GRAWMET), were launched. This study is carried out with a twofold goal. On one hand, a validation of the MWR products such as temperature and water vapor mixing ratio profiles and the IWV from MWR is carried out comparing with radiosonde measurements. The behavior of MWR retrievals under clear and cloudy conditions and for special situations such as inversions has been analyzed. On the other hand, the whole period with continuous measurements is used for a statistical evaluation of the meteorological variables derived from MWR in order to thermodynamically characterize the atmosphere over Granada.

The construction and periodicity analysis of natural disaster database of Alxa area based on Chinese local records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Zheng; Mingzhong, Tian; Hengli, Wang

2010-05-01

Chinese hand-written local records were originated from the first century. Generally, these local records include geography, evolution, customs, education, products, people, historical sites, as well as writings of an area. Through such endeavors, the information of the natural materials of China nearly has had no "dark ages" in the evolution of its 5000-year old civilization. A compilation of all meaningful historical data of natural-disasters taken place in Alxa of inner-Mongolia, the second largest desert in China, is used here for the construction of a 500-year high resolution database. The database is divided into subsets according to the types of natural-disasters like sand-dust storm, drought events, cold wave, etc. Through applying trend, correlation, wavelet, and spectral analysis on these data, we can estimate the statistically periodicity of different natural-disasters, detect and quantify similarities and patterns of the periodicities of these records, and finally take these results in aggregate to find a strong and coherent cyclicity through the last 500 years which serves as the driving mechanism of these geological hazards. Based on the periodicity obtained from the above analysis, the paper discusses the probability of forecasting natural-disasters and the suitable measures to reduce disaster losses through history records. Keyword: Chinese local records; Alxa; natural disasters; database; periodicity analysis

Considering inventory distributions in a stochastic periodic inventory routing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadollahi, Ehsan; Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine

2017-07-01

Dealing with the stochasticity of parameters is one of the critical issues in business and industry nowadays. Supply chain planners have difficulties in forecasting stochastic parameters of a distribution system. Demand rates of customers during their lead time are one of these parameters. In addition, holding a huge level of inventory at the retailers is costly and inefficient. To cover the uncertainty of forecasting demand rates, researchers have proposed the usage of safety stock to avoid stock-out. However, finding the precise level of safety stock depends on forecasting the statistical distribution of demand rates and their variations in different settings among the planning horizon. In this paper the demand rate distributions and its parameters are taken into account for each time period in a stochastic periodic IRP. An analysis of the achieved statistical distribution of the inventory and safety stock level is provided to measure the effects of input parameters on the output indicators. Different values for coefficient of variation are applied to the customers' demand rate in the optimization model. The outcome of the deterministic equivalent model of SPIRP is simulated in form of an illustrative case.

Trends in groundwater quality in principal aquifers of the United States, 1988-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindsey, Bruce D.; Rupert, Michael G.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program analyzed trends in groundwater quality throughout the nation for the sampling period of 1988-2012. Trends were determined for networks (sets of wells routinely monitored by the USGS) for a subset of constituents by statistical analysis of paired water-quality measurements collected on a near-decadal time scale. The data set for chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate consisted of 1,511 wells in 67 networks, whereas the data set for methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) consisted of 1, 013 wells in 46 networks. The 25 principal aquifers represented by these networks account for about 75 percent of withdrawals of groundwater used for drinking-water supply for the nation. Statistically significant changes in chloride, dissolved-solids, or nitrate concentrations were found in many well networks over a decadal period. Concentrations increased significantly in 48 percent of networks for chloride, 42 percent of networks for dissolved solids, and 21 percent of networks for nitrate. Chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations decreased significantly in 3, 3, and 10 percent of the networks, respectively. The magnitude of change in concentrations was typically small in most networks; however, the magnitude of change in networks with statistically significant increases was typically much larger than the magnitude of change in networks with statistically significant decreases. The largest increases of chloride concentrations were in urban areas in the northeastern and north central United States. The largest increases of nitrate concentrations were in networks in agricultural areas. Statistical analysis showed 42 or the 46 networks had no statistically significant changes in MTBE concentrations. The four networks with statistically significant changes in MTBE concentrations were in the northeastern United States, where MTBE was widely used. Two networks had increasing concentrations, and two networks had decreasing concentrations. Production and use of MTBE peaked in about 2000 and has been effectively banned in many areas since about 2006. The two networks that had increasing concentrations were sampled for the second time close to the peak of MTBE production, whereas the two networks that had decreasing concentrations were sampled for the second time 10 years after the peak of MTBE production.

Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

PubMed

Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

2015-03-01

Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Distinguishing Mediational Models and Analyses in Clinical Psychology: Atemporal Associations Do Not Imply Causation.

PubMed

Winer, E Samuel; Cervone, Daniel; Bryant, Jessica; McKinney, Cliff; Liu, Richard T; Nadorff, Michael R

2016-09-01

A popular way to attempt to discern causality in clinical psychology is through mediation analysis. However, mediation analysis is sometimes applied to research questions in clinical psychology when inferring causality is impossible. This practice may soon increase with new, readily available, and easy-to-use statistical advances. Thus, we here provide a heuristic to remind clinical psychological scientists of the assumptions of mediation analyses. We describe recent statistical advances and unpack assumptions of causality in mediation, underscoring the importance of time in understanding mediational hypotheses and analyses in clinical psychology. Example analyses demonstrate that statistical mediation can occur despite theoretical mediation being improbable. We propose a delineation of mediational effects derived from cross-sectional designs into the terms temporal and atemporal associations to emphasize time in conceptualizing process models in clinical psychology. The general implications for mediational hypotheses and the temporal frameworks from within which they may be drawn are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extreme events in China during 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yuehong; Wu, Junmei; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Yonghe

2015-08-01

This study investigates frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on annual maximum of daily precipitation (AMP) data of 753 observation stations in China during the period 1951-2010. Several statistical methods including L-moments, Mann-Kendall test (MK test), Student's t test ( t test) and analysis of variance ( F-test) are used to study different statistical properties related to frequency and spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites have no linear trends at 90 % confidence level, but there is a distinctive decrease trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The analysis of abrupt changes shows that there are no significant changes in most sites, and no distinctive regional patterns within the mutation sites either. An important innovation different from the previous studies is the shift in the mean and the variance which are also studied in this paper in order to further analyze the changes of strong and weak precipitation extreme events. The shift analysis shows that we should pay more attention to the drought in North China and to the flood control and drought in South China, especially to those regions that have no clear trend and have a significant shift in the variance. More important, this study conducts the comprehensive analysis of a complete set of quantile estimates and its spatiotemporal characteristic in China. Spatial distribution of quantile estimation based on the AMP series demonstrated that the values gradually increased from the Northwest to the Southeast with the increment of duration and return period, while the increasing rate of estimation is smooth in the arid and semiarid region and is rapid in humid region. Frequency estimates of 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of AMP series in the most stations, which can provide more quantitative and scientific basis for decision making.

Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2000-01-01

The Fountain Creek watershed, located in and along the eastern slope of the Front Range section of the southern Rocky Mountains, drains approximately 930 square miles of parts of Teller, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties in eastern Colorado. Streamflow in the watershed is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff and storm runoff during the summer monsoon season. Flooding during the 1990?s has resulted in increased streambank erosion. Property loss and damage associated with flooding and bank erosion has cost area residents, businesses, utilities, municipalities, and State and Federal agencies millions of dollars. Precipitation (4 stations) and streamflow (6 stations) data, aerial photographs, and channel reconnaissance were used to evaluate trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in channel morphology. Trends were evaluated for pre-1977, post-1976, and period-of-record time periods. Analysis revealed the lack of trend in total annual and seasonal precipitation during the pre-1977 time period. In general, the analysis also revealed the lack of trend in seasonal precipitation for all except the spring season during the post-1976 time period. Trend analysis revealed a significant upward trend in long-term (period of record) total annual and spring precipitation data, apparently due to a change in total annual precipitation throughout the Fountain Creek watershed. During the pre-1977 time period, precipitation was generally below average; during the post- 1976 time period, total annual precipitation was generally above average. During the post- 1976 time period, an upward trend in total annual and spring precipitation was indicated at two stations. Because two of four stations evaluated had upward trends for the post-1976 period and storms that produce the most precipitation are isolated convection storms, it is plausible that other parts of the watershed had upward precipitation trends that could affect trends in streamflow. Also, because of the isolated nature of convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirangelo, B.; Ferrari, E.; de Luca, D. L.

2011-06-01

A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

[Evaluating cost/equity in the Colombian health system, 1998-2005].

PubMed

Eslava-Schmalbach, Javier; Barón, Gilberto; Gaitán-Duarte, Hernando; Alfonso, Helman; Agudelo, Carlos; Sánchez, Carolina

2008-01-01

An economic analysis of cost-equity (from society's viewpoint) for evaluating the impact of Law 100/93 in Colombia between 1998 and 2005. An economic analysis compared costs and equity in health in Colombia between 1998 and 2005. Data was taken from the Colombian Statistics' Administration Department ( Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica - DANE) and from national demographic and health surveys carried out in 2000 and 2005. Information regarding costs was taken from the National Health Accounts' System. Inequity in Health was considered in line with the Inequity in Health Index (IHI). Incremental and average cost-equity analysis covered three sub-periods; 1998-1999 (during which time per capita gross internal product became reduced in Colombia ), 2000-2001 (during which time total health expense became reduced) and 2001 -2005. An unstable tendency for inequity in health becoming reduced during the period was revealed. There was an inverse relationship between IHI and public health spending and a direct relationship between out-of-pocket spending on health and equity in health (Spearman, p<0.05). The second period had the best incremental cost-equity ratio. Fluctuations in IHI and marginal cost-equity during the periods being analysed suggested that health spending depended on equity in health in Colombia during the period being studied.

Claims-based risk model for first severe COPD exacerbation.

PubMed

Stanford, Richard H; Nag, Arpita; Mapel, Douglas W; Lee, Todd A; Rosiello, Richard; Schatz, Michael; Vekeman, Francis; Gauthier-Loiselle, Marjolaine; Merrigan, J F Philip; Duh, Mei Sheng

2018-02-01

To develop and validate a predictive model for first severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation using health insurance claims data and to validate the risk measure of controller medication to total COPD treatment (controller and rescue) ratio (CTR). A predictive model was developed and validated in 2 managed care databases: Truven Health MarketScan database and Reliant Medical Group database. This secondary analysis assessed risk factors, including CTR, during the baseline period (Year 1) to predict risk of severe exacerbation in the at-risk period (Year 2). Patients with COPD who were 40 years or older and who had at least 1 COPD medication dispensed during the year following COPD diagnosis were included. Subjects with severe exacerbations in the baseline year were excluded. Risk factors in the baseline period were included as potential predictors in multivariate analysis. Performance was evaluated using C-statistics. The analysis included 223,824 patients. The greatest risk factors for first severe exacerbation were advanced age, chronic oxygen therapy usage, COPD diagnosis type, dispensing of 4 or more canisters of rescue medication, and having 2 or more moderate exacerbations. A CTR of 0.3 or greater was associated with a 14% lower risk of severe exacerbation. The model performed well with C-statistics, ranging from 0.711 to 0.714. This claims-based risk model can predict the likelihood of first severe COPD exacerbation. The CTR could also potentially be used to target populations at greatest risk for severe exacerbations. This could be relevant for providers and payers in approaches to prevent severe exacerbations and reduce costs.

Meta-analysis as Statistical and Analytical Method of Journal's Content Scientific Evaluation.

PubMed

Masic, Izet; Begic, Edin

2015-02-01

A meta-analysis is a statistical and analytical method which combines and synthesizes different independent studies and integrates their results into one common result. Analysis of the journals "Medical Archives", "Materia Socio Medica" and "Acta Informatica Medica", which are located in the most eminent indexed databases of the biomedical milieu. The study has retrospective and descriptive character, and included the period of the calendar year 2014. Study included six editions of all three journals (total of 18 journals). In this period was published a total of 291 articles (in the "Medical Archives" 110, "Materia Socio Medica" 97, and in "Acta Informatica Medica" 84). The largest number of articles was original articles. Small numbers have been published as professional, review articles and case reports. Clinical events were most common in the first two journals, while in the journal "Acta Informatica Medica" belonged to the field of medical informatics, as part of pre-clinical medical disciplines. Articles are usually required period of fifty to fifty nine days for review. Articles were received from four continents, mostly from Europe. The authors are most often from the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then Iran, Kosovo and Macedonia. The number of articles published each year is increasing, with greater participation of authors from different continents and abroad. Clinical medical disciplines are the most common, with the broader spectrum of topics and with a growing number of original articles. Greater support of the wider scientific community is needed for further development of all three of the aforementioned journals.

Superstition and post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage.

PubMed

Kumar, Veena V; Kumar, Naveen V; Isaacson, Glenn

2004-11-01

The objective was to determine whether post-tonsillectomy hemorrhages occur more frequently in redheaded children, in patterns of threes, on Friday-the-13th days, or with the full moon. Case-control analysis. The authors performed multiple statistical analyses of all children undergoing tonsillectomy at Temple University Children's Medical Center (Philadelphia, PA) during a 29-month period. Children readmitted to the hospital with or without surgical control of bleeding were compared with children who did not bleed. Relation of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhages to the phase of the moon was evaluated using a standard normal deviate. The frequency of surgery performed on Friday-the-13th days was compared with a differently dated Friday chosen at random. Clusters of three hemorrhages in a 7-day period were recorded. Families of children were contacted and asked whether their child had red hair. A chi analysis compared redheaded and non-redheaded tonsillectomy patients. Twenty-eight of 589 tonsillectomy cases performed required readmission for bleeding events. Twenty tonsillectomies occurred on a full-moon day, resulting in one bleeding event. One cluster of three post-tonsillectomy hemorrhages occurred in a 7-day period. Four of the children who bled had red hair. Two tonsillectomies occurred on Friday the 13th, with no associated hemorrhage. Statistical analysis revealed a random pattern to post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage. Post-tonsillectomy hemorrhages do not occur in clusters of three and are not more frequent with the full moon or on Friday the 13th. The bleeding rate among children with red hair is similar to that of non-redheaded children.

Statistical analysis of hydrological response in urbanising catchments based on adaptive sampling using inter-amount times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Schleiss, Marc

2017-04-01

In this study, we introduced an alternative approach for analysis of hydrological flow time series, using an adaptive sampling framework based on inter-amount times (IATs). The main difference with conventional flow time series is the rate at which low and high flows are sampled: the unit of analysis for IATs is a fixed flow amount, instead of a fixed time window. We analysed statistical distributions of flows and IATs across a wide range of sampling scales to investigate sensitivity of statistical properties such as quantiles, variance, skewness, scaling parameters and flashiness indicators to the sampling scale. We did this based on streamflow time series for 17 (semi)urbanised basins in North Carolina, US, ranging from 13 km2 to 238 km2 in size. Results showed that adaptive sampling of flow time series based on inter-amounts leads to a more balanced representation of low flow and peak flow values in the statistical distribution. While conventional sampling gives a lot of weight to low flows, as these are most ubiquitous in flow time series, IAT sampling gives relatively more weight to high flow values, when given flow amounts are accumulated in shorter time. As a consequence, IAT sampling gives more information about the tail of the distribution associated with high flows, while conventional sampling gives relatively more information about low flow periods. We will present results of statistical analyses across a range of subdaily to seasonal scales and will highlight some interesting insights that can be derived from IAT statistics with respect to basin flashiness and impact urbanisation on hydrological response.

An ecological study of cancer incidence in Port Hope, Ontario from 1992 to 2007.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Moir, Deborah; Lane, Rachel; Thompson, Patsy

2013-03-01

A plant processing radium and uranium ores has been operating in the town of Port Hope since 1932. Given the nuclear industry located in the community and ongoing public health concerns, cancer incidence rates in Port Hope were studied for a recent 16 year period (1992-2007) for continued periodic cancer incidence surveillance of the community. The cancer incidence in the local community for all cancers combined was similar to the Ontario population, health regions with similar socio-economic characteristics in Ontario and in Canada, and the Canadian population. No statistically significant differences in childhood cancer, leukaemia or other radiosensitive cancer incidence were observed, with the exception of statistically significant elevated lung cancer incidence among women. However, the statistical significance was reduced or disappeared when the comparison was made to populations with similar socio-economic characteristics. These findings are consistent with previous ecological, case-control and cohort studies conducted in Port Hope, environmental assessments, and epidemiological studies conducted elsewhere on populations living around similar facilities or exposed to similar environmental contaminants. Although the current study covered an extended period of time, the power to detect risk at the sub-regional level of analysis was limited since the Port Hope population is small (16,500). The study nevertheless indicated that large differences in cancer incidence are not occurring in Port Hope compared to other similar communities and the general population.

Periodicity of Strong Seismicity in Italy: Schuster Spectrum Analysis Extended to the Destructive Earthquakes of 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bragato, P. L.

2017-10-01

The strong earthquakes that occurred in Italy between 2009 and 2016 represent an abrupt acceleration of seismicity in respect of the previous 30 years. Such behavior seems to agree with the periodic rate change I observed in a previous paper. The present work improves that study by extending the data set up to the end of 2016, adopting the latest version of the historical seismic catalog of Italy, and introducing Schuster spectrum analysis for the detection of the oscillatory period and the assessment of its statistical significance. Applied to the declustered catalog of M w ≥ 6 earthquakes that occurred between 1600 and 2016, the analysis individuates a marked periodicity of 46 years, which is recognized above the 95% confidence level. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the oscillatory behavior is stable in respect of random errors on magnitude estimation. A parametric oscillatory model for the annual rate of seismicity is estimated by likelihood maximization under the hypothesis of inhomogeneous Poisson point process. According to the Akaike Information Criterion, such model outperforms the simpler homogeneous one with constant annual rate. A further element emerges form the analysis: so far, despite recent earthquakes, the Italian seismicity is still within a long-term decreasing trend established since the first half of the twentieth century.

Changes in patellofemoral alignment do not cause clinical impact after open-wedge high tibial osteotomy.

PubMed

Lee, Yong Seuk; Lee, Sang Bok; Oh, Won Seok; Kwon, Yong Eok; Lee, Beom Koo

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate the clinical and radiologic outcomes of open-wedge high tibial osteotomy focusing on patellofemoral alignment and (2) to search for correlation between variables and patellofemoral malalignment. A total of 46 knees (46 patients) from 32 females and 14 males who underwent open-wedge high tibial osteotomy were included in this retrospective case series. Outcomes were evaluated using clinical scales and radiologic parameters at the last follow-up. Pre-operative and final follow-up values were compared for the outcome analysis. For the focused analysis of the patellofemoral joint, correlation analyses between patellofemoral variables and pre- and post-operative weight-bearing line (WBL), clinical score, posterior slope, Blackburn Peel ratio, lateral patellar tilt, lateral patellar shift, and congruence angle were performed. The minimum follow-up period was 2 years and median follow-up period was 44 months (range 24-88 months). The percentage of weight-bearing line was shifted from 17.2 ± 11.1 to 56.7 ± 12.7%, and it was statistically significant (p < 0.01). Regarding the clinical results, statistical significance was observed using all scores (p < 0.01). In the radiologic evaluation, patellar descent was observed with statistical significance (p < 0.01). Last follow-up lateral patellar tilt was decreased with statistical significance (p < 0.01). In correlation analysis between variables of patellofemoral malalignment, the pre-operative weight-bearing line showed an association with the change in lateral patellar tilt and lateral patellar shift (correlation coefficient: 0.3). After open-wedge high tibial osteotomy, clinical results showed improvement, compared to pre-operative values. The patellar tilt and lateral patellar shift were not changed; however, descent of the patella was observed. Therefore, mild patellofemoral problems should not be a contraindication of the open-wedge high tibial osteotomy. Case series, Level IV.

Seasonal assessment and apportionment of surface water pollution using multivariate statistical methods: Sinos River, southern Brazil.

PubMed

Alves, Darlan Daniel; Riegel, Roberta Plangg; de Quevedo, Daniela Müller; Osório, Daniela Montanari Migliavacca; da Costa, Gustavo Marques; do Nascimento, Carlos Augusto; Telöken, Franko

2018-06-08

Assessment of surface water quality is an issue of currently high importance, especially in polluted rivers which provide water for treatment and distribution as drinking water, as is the case of the Sinos River, southern Brazil. Multivariate statistical techniques allow a better understanding of the seasonal variations in water quality, as well as the source identification and source apportionment of water pollution. In this study, the multivariate statistical techniques of cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), and positive matrix factorization (PMF) were used, along with the Kruskal-Wallis test and Spearman's correlation analysis in order to interpret a water quality data set resulting from a monitoring program conducted over a period of almost two years (May 2013 to April 2015). The water samples were collected from the raw water inlet of the municipal water treatment plant (WTP) operated by the Water and Sewage Services of Novo Hamburgo (COMUSA). CA allowed the data to be grouped into three periods (autumn and summer (AUT-SUM); winter (WIN); spring (SPR)). Through the PCA, it was possible to identify that the most important parameters in contribution to water quality variations are total coliforms (TCOLI) in SUM-AUT, water level (WL), water temperature (WT), and electrical conductivity (EC) in WIN and color (COLOR) and turbidity (TURB) in SPR. PMF was applied to the complete data set and enabled the source apportionment water pollution through three factors, which are related to anthropogenic sources, such as the discharge of domestic sewage (mostly represented by Escherichia coli (ECOLI)), industrial wastewaters, and agriculture runoff. The results provided by this study demonstrate the contribution provided by the use of integrated statistical techniques in the interpretation and understanding of large data sets of water quality, showing also that this approach can be used as an efficient methodology to optimize indicators for water quality assessment.

Characteristics and Classification of Least Altered Streamflows in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.; Richards, Todd A.

2008-01-01

Streamflow records from 85 streamflow-gaging stations at which streamflows were considered to be least altered were used to characterize natural streamflows within southern New England. Period-of-record streamflow data were used to determine annual hydrographs of median monthly flows. The shapes and magnitudes of annual hydrographs of median monthly flows, normalized by drainage area, differed among stations in different geographic areas of southern New England. These differences were gradational across southern New England and were attributed to differences in basin and climate characteristics. Period-of-record streamflow data were also used to analyze the statistical properties of daily streamflows at 61 stations across southern New England by using L-moment ratios. An L-moment ratio diagram of L-skewness and L-kurtosis showed a continuous gradation in these properties between stations and indicated differences between base-flow dominated and runoff-dominated rivers. Streamflow records from a concurrent period (1960-2004) for 61 stations were used in a multivariate statistical analysis to develop a hydrologic classification of rivers in southern New England. Missing records from 46 of these stations were extended by using a Maintenance of Variation Extension technique. The concurrent-period streamflows were used in the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration and Hydrologic Index Tool programs to determine 224 hydrologic indices for the 61 stations. Principal-components analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the number of hydrologic indices to 20 that provided nonredundant information. The PCA also indicated that the major patterns of variability in the dataset are related to differences in flow variability and low-flow magnitude among the stations. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to classify stations into groups with similar hydrologic properties. The cluster analysis classified rivers in southern New England into two broad groups: (1) base-flow dominated rivers, whose statistical properties indicated less flow variability and high magnitudes of low flow, and (2) runoff-dominated rivers, whose statistical properties indicated greater flow variability and lower magnitudes of low flow. A four-cluster classification further classified the runoff-dominated streams into three groups that varied in gradient, elevation, and differences in winter streamflow conditions: high-gradient runoff-dominated rivers, northern runoff-dominated rivers, and southern runoff-dominated rivers. A nine-cluster division indicated that basin size also becomes a distinguishing factor among basins at finer levels of classification. Smaller basins (less than 10 square miles) were classified into different groups than larger basins. A comparison of station classifications indicated that a classification based on multiple hydrologic indices that represent different aspects of the flow regime did not result in the same classification of stations as a classification based on a single type of statistic such as a monthly median. River basins identified by the cluster analysis as having similar hydrologic properties tended to have similar basin and climate characteristics and to be in close proximity to one another. Stations were not classified in the same cluster on the basis of geographic location alone; as a result, boundaries cannot be drawn between geographic regions with similar streamflow characteristics. Rivers with different basin and climate characteristics were classified in different clusters, even if they were in adjacent basins or upstream and downstream within the same basin.

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of D α signals for type I edge localized modes characterization on JET with a carbon wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannas, Barbara; Fanni, Alessandra; Murari, Andrea; Pisano, Fabio; Contributors, JET

2018-02-01

In this paper, the dynamic characteristics of type-I ELM time-series from the JET tokamak, the world’s largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment, have been investigated. The dynamic analysis has been focused on the detection of nonlinear structure in D α radiation time series. Firstly, the method of surrogate data has been applied to evaluate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis of static nonlinear distortion of an underlying Gaussian linear process. Several nonlinear statistics have been evaluated, such us the time delayed mutual information, the correlation dimension and the maximal Lyapunov exponent. The obtained results allow us to reject the null hypothesis, giving evidence of underlying nonlinear dynamics. Moreover, no evidence of low-dimensional chaos has been found; indeed, the analysed time series are better characterized by the power law sensitivity to initial conditions which can suggest a motion at the ‘edge of chaos’, at the border between chaotic and regular non-chaotic dynamics. This uncertainty makes it necessary to further investigate about the nature of the nonlinear dynamics. For this purpose, a second surrogate test to distinguish chaotic orbits from pseudo-periodic orbits has been applied. In this case, we cannot reject the null hypothesis which means that the ELM time series is possibly pseudo-periodic. In order to reproduce pseudo-periodic dynamical properties, a periodic state-of-the-art model, proposed to reproduce the ELM cycle, has been corrupted by a dynamical noise, obtaining time series qualitatively in agreement with experimental time series.

Total ozone variations at Reykjavik since 1957

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bjarnason, G.G.; Rognvaldsson, O.E.; Sigfusson, T.I.

1993-12-01

Total ozone measurements using a Dobson spectrophotometer have been performed on a regular basis at Reykjavik (65 deg 08 min N, 21 deg 54 min W), Iceland, since 1957. The data set for the entire period of observations has been critically examined. Due to problems related to the calibration of the instrument the data record of ozone observations is divided into two periods in the following analysis (1957-1977 and 1977-1990). A statistical model was developed to fit the data and estimate long-term changes in total ozone. The model includes seasonal variations, solar cycle influences, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) effects, and linearmore » trends. Some variants of the model are applied to investigate to what extent the estimated trends depend on the form of the model. Trend analysis of the revised data reveals a statistically significant linear decrease of 0.11 +/- 0.07% per year in the annual total ozone amount during the earlier period and 0.30 +/- 0.11% during the latter. The annual total ozone decline since 1977 is caused by a 0.47 +/- 0.14% decrease per year during the summer with no significant change during the winter or fall. On an annual basis, ozone varies by 3.5 +/- 0.8% over a solar cycle and by 2.1 +/- 0.6% over a QBO for the whole observation period. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is particularly strong in the data during the early months of the year and in the westerly phase of the QBO. The data also suggest a strong response of total ozone to major solar proton events.« less

Illustration of compositional variations over time of Chinese porcelain glazes combining micro-X-ray Fluorescence spectrometry, multivariate data analysis and Seger formulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Pevenage, J.; Verhaeven, E.; Vekemans, B.; Lauwers, D.; Herremans, D.; De Clercq, W.; Vincze, L.; Moens, L.; Vandenabeele, P.

2015-01-01

In this research, the transparent glaze layers of Chinese porcelain samples were investigated. Depending on the production period, these samples can be divided into two groups: the samples of group A dating from the Kangxi period (1661-1722), and the samples of group B produced under emperor Qianlong (1735-1795). Due to the specific sample preparation method and the small spot size of the X-ray beam, investigation of the transparent glaze layers is enabled. Despite the many existing research papers about glaze investigations of ceramics and/or porcelain ware, this research reveals new insights into the glaze composition and structure of Chinese porcelain samples. In this paper it is demonstrated, using micro-X-ray Fluorescence (μ-XRF) spectrometry, multivariate data analysis and statistical analysis (Hotelling's T-Square test) that the transparent glaze layers of the samples of groups A and B are significantly different (95% confidence level). Calculation of the Seger formulas, enabled classification of the glazes. Combining all the information, the difference in composition of the Chinese porcelain glazes of the Kangxi period and the Qianlong period can be demonstrated.

Spatial epidemiology of suspected clinical leptospirosis in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Robertson, C; Nelson, T A; Stephen, C

2012-04-01

Leptospirosis is one of the most widespread zoonoses in the world. A large outbreak of suspected human leptospirosis began in Sri Lanka during 2008. This study investigated spatial variables associated with suspected leptospirosis risk during endemic and outbreak periods. Data were obtained for monthly numbers of reported cases of suspected clinical leptospirosis for 2005-2009 for all of Sri Lanka. Space-time scan statistics were combined with regression modelling to test associations during endemic and outbreak periods. The cross-correlation function was used to test association between rainfall and leptospirosis at four locations. During the endemic period (2005-2007), leptospirosis risk was positively associated with shorter average distance to rivers and with higher percentage of agriculture made up of farms <0·20 hectares. Temporal correlation analysis of suspected leptospirosis cases and rainfall revealed a 2-month lag in rainfall-case association during the baseline period. Outbreak locations in 2008 were characterized by shorter distance to rivers and higher population density. The analysis suggests the possibility of household transmission in densely populated semi-urban villages as a defining characteristic of the outbreak. The role of rainfall in the outbreak remains to be investigated, although analysis here suggests a more complex relationship than simple correlation.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

2017-03-15

In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Gene-Based Association Analysis for Censored Traits Via Fixed Effect Functional Regressions.

PubMed

Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Yan, Qi; Ding, Ying; Weeks, Daniel E; Lu, Zhaohui; Ren, Haobo; Cook, Richard J; Xiong, Momiao; Swaroop, Anand; Chew, Emily Y; Chen, Wei

2016-02-01

Genetic studies of survival outcomes have been proposed and conducted recently, but statistical methods for identifying genetic variants that affect disease progression are rarely developed. Motivated by our ongoing real studies, here we develop Cox proportional hazard models using functional regression (FR) to perform gene-based association analysis of survival traits while adjusting for covariates. The proposed Cox models are fixed effect models where the genetic effects of multiple genetic variants are assumed to be fixed. We introduce likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistics to test for associations between the survival traits and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed Cox RF LRT statistics have well-controlled type I error rates. To evaluate power, we compare the Cox FR LRT with the previously developed burden test (BT) in a Cox model and sequence kernel association test (SKAT), which is based on mixed effect Cox models. The Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than or similar power as Cox SKAT LRT except when 50%/50% causal variants had negative/positive effects and all causal variants are rare. In addition, the Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than Cox BT LRT. The models and related test statistics can be useful in the whole genome and whole exome association studies. An age-related macular degeneration dataset was analyzed as an example. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Effect of LED-mediated-photobiomodulation therapy on orthodontic tooth movement and root resorption in rats.

PubMed

Ekizer, Abdullah; Uysal, Tancan; Güray, Enis; Akkuş, Derya

2015-02-01

The aim of this experimental study was to evaluate the effects of light-emitting diode-mediated-photobiomodulation therapy (LPT), on the rate of orthodontic tooth movement (TM) and orthodontically induced root resorption, in rats. Twenty male 12-week-old Wistar rats were separated into two groups (control and LPT) and 50 cN of force was applied between maxillary left molar and incisor with a coil spring. In the treatment group, LPT was applied with an energy density of 20 mW/cm(2) over a period of 10 consecutive days directly over the movement of the first molar teeth area. The distance between the teeth was measured with a digital caliper on days 0 (T0), 10 (T1), and 21 (T2) on dental cast models. The surface area of root resorption lacunae was measured histomorphometrically using digital photomicrographs. Mann-Whitney U and Wilcoxon tests were used for statistical evaluation at p < 0.05 level. TM during two different time intervals (T1-T0 and T2-T1) were compared for both groups and a statistically significant difference was found in the LPT group (p = 0.016). The TM amount at the first time period (1.31 ± 0.36 mm) was significantly higher than the second time period (0.24 ± 0.23 mm) in the LPT group. Statistical analysis showed significant differences between two groups after treatment/observation period (p = 0.017). The magnitude of movement in the treatment group was higher (1.55 ± 0.33 mm) compared to the control group (1.06 ± 0.35 mm). Histomorphometric analysis of root resorption, expressed as a percentage, showed that the average relative root resorption affecting the maxillary molars on the TM side was 0.098 ± 0.066 in the LPT group and 0.494 ± 0.224 in the control group. Statistically significant inhibition of root resorption with LPT was determined (p < 0.001) on the TM side. The LPT method has the potential of accelerating orthodontic tooth movement and inhibitory effects on orthodontically induced resorptive activity.

Wavelet Statistical Analysis of Low-Latitude Geomagnetic Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papa, A. R.; Akel, A. F.

2009-05-01

Following previous works by our group (Papa et al., JASTP, 2006), where we analyzed a series of records acquired at the Vassouras National Geomagnetic Observatory in Brazil for the month of October 2000, we introduced a wavelet analysis for the same type of data and for other periods. It is well known that wavelets allow a more detailed study in several senses: the time window for analysis can be drastically reduced if compared to other traditional methods (Fourier, for example) and at the same time allow an almost continuous accompaniment of both amplitude and frequency of signals as time goes by. This advantage brings some possibilities for potentially useful forecasting methods of the type also advanced by our group in previous works (see for example, Papa and Sosman, JASTP, 2008). However, the simultaneous statistical analysis of both time series (in our case amplitude and frequency) is a challenging matter and is in this sense that we have found what we consider our main goal. Some possible trends for future works are advanced.

The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

2013-01-01

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Shock transmission in coupled beams and rib stiffened structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, L. D.; Manning, J. E.; Scharton, T. D.

1971-01-01

Shock transmission in a simple coupled beam structure and in a ring-stringer stiffened cylinder is investigated experimentally and analytically using wave transmission and statistical energy analysis concepts. The use of the response spectrum to characterize the excitation provided to a simple beam by a force pulse is studied. Analysis of the transmission of a dilatation wave in a periodically stiffened plate indicates that the stiffeners are fairly transparent to the wave, but some of the dilatational energy is scattered into bending at each support.

[Clinico-statistical analysis of arterial hypertension complicated with hypertensive crisis in Moscow in 2005-2009].

PubMed

Gaponova, N I; Plavunov, N F; Tereshchenko, S N; Baratashvili, V L; Abdurakhmanov, V R; Komissarenko, I A; Filippov, D V; Podkopaev, D V

2011-01-01

Clinicostatistical analysis of arterial hypertension complicated with hypertensive crisis using data of Moscow A.S.Puchkov Station of Urgent and Emergent Medical Aid revealed 14% rise in number of hypertensive crises during the period from 2005 to 2009. Number of hypertensive crises increased among persons of young age (18-35 years). Frequency of cerebrovascular complications of hypertensive crises was age dependent with maximal values among men aged 36-74 years and women older than 75 years.

Bias and inference from misspecified mixed‐effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis

PubMed Central

Fielding, Katherine L.; Davey, Calum; Aiken, Alexander M.; Hargreaves, James R.; Hayes, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed‐effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common‐to‐all or varied‐between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within‐cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within‐cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed‐effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within‐cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28556355

Development and analysis of a meteorological database, Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Over, Thomas M.; Price, Thomas H.; Ishii, Audrey L.

2010-01-01

A database of hourly values of air temperature, dewpoint temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation from January 1, 1948, to September 30, 2003, primarily using data collected at the Argonne National Laboratory station, was developed for use in continuous-time hydrologic modeling in northeastern Illinois. Missing and apparently erroneous data values were replaced with adjusted values from nearby stations used as 'backup'. Temporal variations in the statistical properties of the data resulting from changes in measurement and data-storage methodologies were adjusted to match the statistical properties resulting from the data-collection procedures that have been in place since January 1, 1989. The adjustments were computed based on the regressions between the primary data series from Argonne National Laboratory and the backup series using data obtained during common periods; the statistical properties of the regressions were used to assign estimated standard errors to values that were adjusted or filled from other series. Each hourly value was assigned a corresponding data-source flag that indicates the source of the value and its transformations. An analysis of the data-source flags indicates that all the series in the database except dewpoint have a similar fraction of Argonne National Laboratory data, with about 89 percent for the entire period, about 86 percent from 1949 through 1988, and about 98 percent from 1989 through 2003. The dewpoint series, for which observations at Argonne National Laboratory did not begin until 1958, has only about 71 percent Argonne National Laboratory data for the entire period, about 63 percent from 1948 through 1988, and about 93 percent from 1989 through 2003, indicating a lower reliability of the dewpoint sensor. A basic statistical analysis of the filled and adjusted data series in the database, and a series of potential evapotranspiration computed from them using the computer program LXPET (Lamoreux Potential Evapotranspiration) also was carried out. This analysis indicates annual cycles in solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration that follow the annual cycle of extraterrestrial solar radiation, whereas temperature and dewpoint annual cycles are lagged by about 1 month relative to the solar cycle. The annual cycle of wind has a late summer minimum, and spring and fall maximums. At the annual time scale, the filled and adjusted data series and computed potential evapotranspiration have significant serial correlation and possibly have significant temporal trends. The inter-annual fluctuations of temperature and dewpoint are weakest, whereas those of wind and potential evapotranspiration are strongest.

Multivariate analysis of historical data (2004-2013) in assessing the possible environmental impact of the Bellolampo landfill (Palermo).

PubMed

Indelicato, Serena; Bongiorno, David; Tuzzolino, Nicola; Mannino, Maria Rosaria; Muscarella, Rosalia; Fradella, Pasquale; Gargano, Maria Elena; Nicosia, Salvatore; Ceraulo, Leopoldo

2018-03-14

Multivariate analysis was performed on a large data set of groundwater and leachate samples collected during 9 years of operation of the Bellolampo municipal solid waste landfill (located above Palermo, Italy). The aim was to obtain the most likely correlations among the data. The analysis results are presented. Groundwater samples were collected in the period 2004-2013, whereas the leachate analysis refers to the period 2006-2013. For groundwater, statistical data evaluation revealed notable differences among the samples taken from the numerous wells located around the landfill. Characteristic parameters revealed by principal component analysis (PCA) were more deeply investigated, and corresponding thematic maps were drawn. The composition of the leachate was also thoroughly investigated. Several chemical macro-descriptors were calculated, and the results are presented. A comparison of PCA results for the leachate and groundwater data clearly reveals that the groundwater's main components substantially differ from those of the leachate. This outcome strongly suggests excluding leachate permeation through the multiple landfill lining.

Statistical description of non-Gaussian samples in the F2 layer of the ionosphere during heliogeophysical disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeenko, N. P.

2017-11-01

An adequate statistical method should be developed in order to predict probabilistically the range of ionospheric parameters. This problem is solved in this paper. The time series of the critical frequency of the layer F2- foF2( t) were subjected to statistical processing. For the obtained samples {δ foF2}, statistical distributions and invariants up to the fourth order are calculated. The analysis shows that the distributions differ from the Gaussian law during the disturbances. At levels of sufficiently small probability distributions, there are arbitrarily large deviations from the model of the normal process. Therefore, it is attempted to describe statistical samples {δ foF2} based on the Poisson model. For the studied samples, the exponential characteristic function is selected under the assumption that time series are a superposition of some deterministic and random processes. Using the Fourier transform, the characteristic function is transformed into a nonholomorphic excessive-asymmetric probability-density function. The statistical distributions of the samples {δ foF2} calculated for the disturbed periods are compared with the obtained model distribution function. According to the Kolmogorov's criterion, the probabilities of the coincidence of a posteriori distributions with the theoretical ones are P 0.7-0.9. The conducted analysis makes it possible to draw a conclusion about the applicability of a model based on the Poisson random process for the statistical description and probabilistic variation estimates during heliogeophysical disturbances of the variations {δ foF2}.

Applications of statistical physics and information theory to the analysis of DNA sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosse, Ivo

2000-10-01

DNA carries the genetic information of most living organisms, and the of genome projects is to uncover that genetic information. One basic task in the analysis of DNA sequences is the recognition of protein coding genes. Powerful computer programs for gene recognition have been developed, but most of them are based on statistical patterns that vary from species to species. In this thesis I address the question if there exist universal statistical patterns that are different in coding and noncoding DNA of all living species, regardless of their phylogenetic origin. In search for such species-independent patterns I study the mutual information function of genomic DNA sequences, and find that it shows persistent period-three oscillations. To understand the biological origin of the observed period-three oscillations, I compare the mutual information function of genomic DNA sequences to the mutual information function of stochastic model sequences. I find that the pseudo-exon model is able to reproduce the mutual information function of genomic DNA sequences. Moreover, I find that a generalization of the pseudo-exon model can connect the existence and the functional form of long-range correlations to the presence and the length distributions of coding and noncoding regions. Based on these theoretical studies I am able to find an information-theoretical quantity, the average mutual information (AMI), whose probability distributions are significantly different in coding and noncoding DNA, while they are almost identical in all studied species. These findings show that there exist universal statistical patterns that are different in coding and noncoding DNA of all studied species, and they suggest that the AMI may be used to identify genes in different living species, irrespective of their taxonomic origin.

Statistical Analysis of the Impacts of Regional Transportation on the Air Quality in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhongwen; Zhang, Huiling; Tong, Lei; Xiao, Hang

2016-04-01

From October to December 2015, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region had experienced several severe haze events. In order to assess the effects of the regional transportation on the air quality in Beijing, the air monitoring data (PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO) from that period published by Chinese National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC) was collected and analyzed with various statistical models. The cities within BTH area were clustered into three groups according to the geographical conditions, while the air pollutant concentrations of cities within a group sharing similar variation trends. The Granger causality test results indicate that significant causal relationships exist between the air pollutant data of Beijing and its surrounding cities (Baoding, Chengde, Tianjin and Zhangjiakou) for the reference period. Then, linear regression models were constructed to capture the interdependency among the multiple time series. It shows that the observed air pollutant concentrations in Beijing were well consistent with the model-fitted results. More importantly, further analysis suggests that the air pollutants in Beijing were strongly affected by regional transportation, as the local sources only contributed 17.88%, 27.12%, 14.63% and 31.36% of PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO concentrations, respectively. And the major foreign source for Beijing was from Southwest (Baoding) direction, account for more than 42% of all these air pollutants. Thus, by combining various statistical models, it may not only be able to quickly predict the air qualities of any cities on a regional scale, but also to evaluate the local and regional source contributions for a particular city. Key words: regional transportation, air pollution, Granger causality test, statistical models

Periodic Recurrence Patterns In X-Ray Solar Flare Appearances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyenge, N.; Erdélyi, R.

2018-06-01

The temporal recurrence of micro-flare events is studied for a time interval before and after of major solar flares. Our sample is based on the X-ray flare observations by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). The analyzed data contain 1330/301 M-class and X-class GOES/RHESSI energetic solar flares and 4062/4119 GOES/RHESSI micro-flares covering the period elapse since 2002. The temporal analysis of recurrence, by Fast Fourier Transform, of the micro-flares, shows multiple significant periods. Based on the GOES and RHESSI data, the temporal analysis also demonstrates that multiple periods manifest simultaneously in both statistical samples without any significant shift over time. In the GOES sample, the detected significant periods are: 11.33, 5.61, 3.75, 2.80, and 2.24 minutes. The RHESSI data show similar significant periods at 8.54, 5.28, 3.66, 2.88, and 2.19 minutes. The periods are interpreted as signatures of standing oscillations, with the longest period (P 1) being the fundamental and others being higher harmonic modes. The period ratio of the fundamental and higher harmonics (P 1/P N ) is also analyzed. The standing modes may be signatures of global oscillations of the entire solar atmosphere encompassing magnetized plasma from the photosphere to the corona in active regions.

Flight path control strategies and preliminary deltaV requirements for the 2007 Mars Phoenix (PHX) mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raofi, Behzad

2005-01-01

This paper describes the methods used to estimate the statistical deltaV requirements for the propulsive maneuvers that will deliver the spacecraft to its target landing site while satisfying planetary protection requirements. the paper presents flight path control analysis results for three different trajectories, open, middle, and close of launch period for the mission.

Moving the Goalposts: Education Policy and 25 Years of the Black/White Achievement Gap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillborn, David; Demack, Sean; Rollock, Nicola; Warmington, Paul

2017-01-01

Drawing on a secondary analysis of official statistics, this paper examines the changing scale of the inequality of achievement between White students and their Black British peers who identify their family heritage as Black Caribbean. We examine a 25-year period from the introduction of the General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE), in…

[A functional statistical analysis of the action potentials in the brain multineuronal activity of waking cats].

PubMed

Merzhanova, G Kh; Porada, I

1990-01-01

In the present work a method is substantiated of the correction of singled out impulses series by identification of parameters of neurones discharges (PD) during a long period of recording (up to 120 days) of the neuronal activity by means of chronically implanted nichrome semimicroelectrode in different brain part of alert cats.

Changes in parameters of right ventricular function with cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Sharma, Abhishek; Lavie, Carl J; Vallakati, Ajay; Garg, Akash; Goel, Sunny; Lazar, Jason; Fonarow, Gregg C

2017-11-01

Studies have shown that cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) significantly improves right ventricle (RV) size and function in patients with heart failure (HF). CRT does not lead to improvement in RV function independent of baseline clinical variables. A systematic search of studies published between 1966 to August 31, 2015 was conducted using Pub Med, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL and the Web of Science databases. Studies reporting tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) or RV basal strain or RV long axis diameter or RV short axis diameter or RV fractional area change (FAC), before and after CRT, were identified. A meta-analysis was performed using random effects with inverse variance method to determine the pooled mean difference in various parameters of RV function after CRT. Meta-regression analysis was performed to test the relationship between change in various parameters of RV functions after CRT and covariates- age, QRS duration, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Thirteen studies (N=1541) were selected for final analysis. CRT therapy led to statistically significant increases in TAPSE [1.21 (95% CI 0.55-1.86; p<0.001)], RV FAC [2.26 (95% CI 0.50-4.01; p<0.001)] and basal strain [2.82 (95% CI 0.59-5.05; p<0.001)] and statistically significant decreases in mean RV long axis diameter [-2.94 (95% CI -5.07- -0.82; p=0.005)] and short axis diameter [-1.39 (95% CI -2.10- -0.67; p=0.876)] after a mean follow up period of 9 months. However, after meta-regression analysis for age, QRS duration, and baseline LVEF as covariates, there was no significant improvement in any of the parameters of RV function after CRT. There was a statistically significant improvement in TAPSE, RV basal strain, RV fractional area, RV long axis and short axis with CRT. However, improvement in these echocardiographic parameters of RV function after CRT was not independent of baseline clinical variables but statistically dependent on age, QRS duration and baseline LVEF. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

From Provider to Enabler of Care? Reconfiguring Local Authority Support for Older People and Carers in Leeds, 2008 to 2013

PubMed Central

Yeandle, Sue

2016-01-01

Abstract This article explores developments in the support available to older people and carers (i.e., caregivers) in the city of Leeds, United Kingdom, and examines provision changes during a period characterized by unprecedented resource constraint and new developments in national-local governance. Using documentary evidence, official statistics, and findings from recent studies led by the author, the effects of these changes on service planning and delivery and the approach taken by local actors to mitigate their impact are highlighted. The statistical data show a marked decline in some types of services for older people during a 5-year period during which the city council took steps to mobilize citizens and develop new services and system improvements. The analysis focuses on theories of social quality as a framework for analysis of the complex picture of change related to service provision. It concludes that although citizen involvement and consultations exerted a positive influence in delivering support to some older people and carers, research over a longer timescale is needed to show if these changes are adequate to protect older people and carers from the effects of ongoing budgetary constraints. PMID:27019540

Reduction in hospitalwide incidence of infection or colonization with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus with use of antimicrobial hand-hygiene gel and statistical process control charts.

PubMed

Harrington, Glenys; Watson, Kerrie; Bailey, Michael; Land, Gillian; Borrell, Susan; Houston, Leanne; Kehoe, Rosaleen; Bass, Pauline; Cockroft, Emma; Marshall, Caroline; Mijch, Anne; Spelman, Denis

2007-07-01

To evaluate the impact of serial interventions on the incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Longitudinal observational study before and after interventions. The Alfred Hospital is a 350-bed tertiary referral hospital with a 35-bed intensive care unit (ICU). A series of interventions including the introduction of an antimicrobial hand-hygiene gel to the intensive care unit and a hospitalwide MRSA surveillance feedback program that used statistical process control charts but not active surveillance cultures. Serial interventions were introduced between January 2003 and May 2006. The incidence and rates of new patients colonized or infected with MRSA and episodes of MRSA bacteremia in the intensive care unit and hospitalwide were compared between the preintervention and intervention periods. Segmented regression analysis was used to calculate the percentage reduction in new patients with MRSA and in episodes of MRSA bacteremia hospitalwide in the intervention period. The rate of new patients with MRSA in the ICU was 6.7 cases per 100 patient admissions in the intervention period, compared with 9.3 cases per 100 patient admissions in the preintervention period (P=.047). The hospitalwide rate of new patients with MRSA was 1.7 cases per 100 patient admissions in the intervention period, compared with 3.0 cases per 100 patient admissions in the preintervention period (P<.001). By use of segmented regression analysis, the maximum and conservative estimates for percentage reduction in the rate of new patients with MRSA were 79.5% and 42.0%, respectively, and the maximum and conservative estimates for percentage reduction in the rate of episodes of MRSA bacteremia were 87.4% and 39.0%, respectively. A sustained reduction in the number of new patients with MRSA colonization or infection has been demonstrated using minimal resources and a limited number of interventions.

Quantitative Research on the Relationship between Yield of Winter Wheat and Agroclimatological Resources—the Case Study from Yanzhou District, Shandong Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Maoling; Liu, Pingzeng; Zhang, Chao; Zheng, Yong; Wang, Xizhi; Zhang, Yan; Chen, Weijie; Zhao, Rui

2018-01-01

Agroclimatological resources provide material and energy for agricultural production. This study is aimed to analyze the impact of selected climate factors change on wheat yield over the different growth period applied quantitatively method, by comparing two different time division modules of wheat growth cycle- monthly empirical-statistical multiple regression models ( From October to June of next year ) and growth stage empirical-statistical multiple regression models (Including sowing stage, seedling stage, tillering stage, overwintering period, regreening period, jointing stage, heading stage, maturity stage) analysis of relationship between agrometeorological data and growth stage records and winter wheat production in Yanzhou, Shandong Province of China. Correlation analysis(CA)was done for 35 years (from 1981 to 2015) between crop yield and corresponding weather parameters including daily mean temperature, sunshine duration, and average daily precipitation selected from 18 different meteorological factors. The results shows that the greatest impact on the winter wheat yield is the precipitation overwintering period in this area, each 1mm increase in daily mean rainfall was associated with 201.64 kg/hm2 lowered output. Moreover, the temperature and sunshine duration in heading period and maturity stage also exert significant influence on the output, every 1°C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with 199.85kg/hm2 adding output, every 1h increase in mean sunshine duration was associated with 130.68kg/hm2 reduced output. Comparing with the results of experiment which using months as step sizes and using farming as step sizes was in better agreement with the fluctuation in meteorological yield, offered a better explanation on the growth mechanism of wheat. Eventually the results indicated that 3 factors affects the yield during different growing periods of wheat in different extent and provided more specific reference to guide the agricultural production management in this area.

Mars: Noachian hydrology by its statistics and topology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabrol, N. A.; Grin, E. A.

1993-01-01

Discrimination between fluvial features generated by surface drainage and subsurface aquifer discharges will provide clues to the understanding of early Mars' climatic history. Our approach is to define the process of formation of the oldest fluvial valleys by statistical and topological analyses. Formation of fluvial valley systems reached its highest statistical concentration during the Noachian Period. Nevertheless, they are a scarce phenomenom in Martian history, localized on the craterized upland, and subject to latitudinal distribution. They occur sparsely on Noachian geological units with a weak distribution density, and appear in reduced isolated surface (around 5 x 10(exp 3)(sq km)), filled by short streams (100-300 km length). Topological analysis of the internal organization of 71 surveyed Noachian fluvial valley networks also provides information on the mechanisms of formation.

Statistical analysis of modal properties of a cable-stayed bridge through long-term structural health monitoring with wireless smart sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadollahi, Parisa; Li, Jian

2016-04-01

Understanding the dynamic behavior of complex structures such as long-span bridges requires dense deployment of sensors. Traditional wired sensor systems are generally expensive and time-consuming to install due to cabling. With wireless communication and on-board computation capabilities, wireless smart sensor networks have the advantages of being low cost, easy to deploy and maintain and therefore facilitate dense instrumentation for structural health monitoring. A long-term monitoring project was recently carried out for a cable-stayed bridge in South Korea with a dense array of 113 smart sensors, which feature the world's largest wireless smart sensor network for civil structural monitoring. This paper presents a comprehensive statistical analysis of the modal properties including natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes of the monitored cable-stayed bridge. Data analyzed in this paper is composed of structural vibration signals monitored during a 12-month period under ambient excitations. The correlation between environmental temperature and the modal frequencies is also investigated. The results showed the long-term statistical structural behavior of the bridge, which serves as the basis for Bayesian statistical updating for the numerical model.

Redshift data and statistical inference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, William I.; Haynes, Martha P.; Terzian, Yervant

1994-01-01

Frequency histograms and the 'power spectrum analysis' (PSA) method, the latter developed by Yu & Peebles (1969), have been widely employed as techniques for establishing the existence of periodicities. We provide a formal analysis of these two classes of methods, including controlled numerical experiments, to better understand their proper use and application. In particular, we note that typical published applications of frequency histograms commonly employ far greater numbers of class intervals or bins than is advisable by statistical theory sometimes giving rise to the appearance of spurious patterns. The PSA method generates a sequence of random numbers from observational data which, it is claimed, is exponentially distributed with unit mean and variance, essentially independent of the distribution of the original data. We show that the derived random processes is nonstationary and produces a small but systematic bias in the usual estimate of the mean and variance. Although the derived variable may be reasonably described by an exponential distribution, the tail of the distribution is far removed from that of an exponential, thereby rendering statistical inference and confidence testing based on the tail of the distribution completely unreliable. Finally, we examine a number of astronomical examples wherein these methods have been used giving rise to widespread acceptance of statistically unconfirmed conclusions.

Molar incisor hypomineralization (MIH): conservative treatment management to restore affected teeth.

PubMed

Fragelli, Camila Maria Bullio; Souza, Juliana Feltrin de; Jeremias, Fabiano; Cordeiro, Rita de Cássia Loiola; Santos-Pinto, Lourdes

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the 12-month clinical performance of glass ionomer restorations in teeth with MIH. First permanent molars affected by MIH (48) were restored with glass ionomer cement (GIC) and evaluated at baseline, at 6 and at 12 months, by assessing tooth enamel breakdown, GIC breakdown and caries lesion associations. The data were analyzed using the chi-square test and actuarial survival analysis. The likelihood of a restored tooth remaining unchanged at the end of 12 months was 78%. No statistically significant difference was observed in the association between increased MIH severity and caries at baseline (p > 0.05) for a 6-month period, or between increased MIH severity and previous unsatisfactory treatment at baseline (p > 0.05) for both a 6- and 12-month period. A statistically significant difference was observed in the association between increased MIH severity and extension of the restoration, involving 2 or more surfaces (p < 0.05) at both periods, and between increased MIH severity and caries at baseline (p < 0.05) at a 12-month period. Because the likelihood of maintaining the tooth structures with GIC restorations is high, invasive treatment should be postponed until the child is sufficiently mature to cooperate with the treatment, mainly of teeth affected on just one face.

Diagnosis of abnormal patterns in multivariate microclimate monitoring: a case study of an open-air archaeological site in Pompeii (Italy).

PubMed

Merello, Paloma; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Zarzo, Manuel

2014-08-01

Chemometrics has been applied successfully since the 1990s for the multivariate statistical control of industrial processes. A new area of interest for these tools is the microclimatic monitoring of cultural heritage. Sensors record climatic parameters over time and statistical data analysis is performed to obtain valuable information for preventive conservation. A case study of an open-air archaeological site is presented here. A set of 26 temperature and relative humidity data-loggers was installed in four rooms of Ariadne's house (Pompeii). If climatic values are recorded versus time at different positions, the resulting data structure is equivalent to records of physical parameters registered at several points of a continuous chemical process. However, there is an important difference in this case: continuous processes are controlled to reach a steady state, whilst open-air sites undergo tremendous fluctuations. Although data from continuous processes are usually column-centred prior to applying principal components analysis, it turned out that another pre-treatment (row-centred data) was more convenient for the interpretation of components and to identify abnormal patterns. The detection of typical trajectories was more straightforward by dividing the whole monitored period into several sub-periods, because the marked climatic fluctuations throughout the year affect the correlation structures. The proposed statistical methodology is of interest for the microclimatic monitoring of cultural heritage, particularly in the case of open-air or semi-confined archaeological sites. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical models for fever forecasting based on advanced body temperature monitoring.

PubMed

Jordan, Jorge; Miro-Martinez, Pau; Vargas, Borja; Varela-Entrecanales, Manuel; Cuesta-Frau, David

2017-02-01

Body temperature monitoring provides health carers with key clinical information about the physiological status of patients. Temperature readings are taken periodically to detect febrile episodes and consequently implement the appropriate medical countermeasures. However, fever is often difficult to assess at early stages, or remains undetected until the next reading, probably a few hours later. The objective of this article is to develop a statistical model to forecast fever before a temperature threshold is exceeded to improve the therapeutic approach to the subjects involved. To this end, temperature series of 9 patients admitted to a general internal medicine ward were obtained with a continuous monitoring Holter device, collecting measurements of peripheral and core temperature once per minute. These series were used to develop different statistical models that could quantify the probability of having a fever spike in the following 60 minutes. A validation series was collected to assess the accuracy of the models. Finally, the results were compared with the analysis of some series by experienced clinicians. Two different models were developed: a logistic regression model and a linear discrimination analysis model. Both of them exhibited a fever peak forecasting accuracy greater than 84%. When compared with experts' assessment, both models identified 35 (97.2%) of 36 fever spikes. The models proposed are highly accurate in forecasting the appearance of fever spikes within a short period in patients with suspected or confirmed febrile-related illnesses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Streamflow statistics for selected streams in North Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2012-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for the periods of record through water year 2009 for selected active and discontinued U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan were compiled. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include a brief station description, a graph of the annual peak and annual mean discharge for the period of record, statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, monthly and annual flow durations, probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Long-term impact of sewage sludge application on soil microbial biomass: An evaluation using meta-analysis.

PubMed

Charlton, Alex; Sakrabani, Ruben; Tyrrel, Sean; Rivas Casado, Monica; McGrath, Steve P; Crooks, Bill; Cooper, Pat; Campbell, Colin D

2016-12-01

The Long-Term Sludge Experiments (LTSE) began in 1994 as part of continuing research into the effects of sludge-borne heavy metals on soil fertility. The long-term effects of Zn, Cu, and Cd on soil microbial biomass carbon (C mic ) were monitored for 8 years (1997-2005) in sludge amended soils at nine UK field sites. To assess the statutory limits set by the UK Sludge (Use in Agriculture) Regulations the experimental data has been reviewed using the statistical methods of meta-analysis. Previous LTSE studies have focused predominantly on statistical significance rather than effect size, whereas meta-analysis focuses on the magnitude and direction of an effect, i.e. the practical significance, rather than its statistical significance. The results presented here show that significant decreases in C mic have occurred in soils where the total concentrations of Zn and Cu fall below the current UK statutory limits. For soils receiving sewage sludge predominantly contaminated with Zn, decreases of approximately 7-11% were observed at concentrations below the UK statutory limit. The effect of Zn appeared to increase over time, with increasingly greater decreases in C mic observed over a period of 8 years. This may be due to an interactive effect between Zn and confounding Cu contamination which has augmented the bioavailability of these metals over time. Similar decreases (7-12%) in C mic were observed in soils receiving sewage sludge predominantly contaminated with Cu; however, C mic appeared to show signs of recovery after a period of 6 years. Application of sewage sludge predominantly contaminated with Cd appeared to have no effect on C mic at concentrations below the current UK statutory limit. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Influence of bismuth oxide concentration on the pH level and biocompatibility of white Portland cement.

PubMed

Marciano, Marina Angélica; Garcia, Roberto Brandão; Cavenago, Bruno Cavalini; Minotti, Paloma Gagliardi; Midena, Raquel Zanin; Guimarães, Bruno Martini; Ordinola-Zapata, Ronald; Duarte, Marco Antonio Hungaro

2014-01-01

To investigate if there is a relation between the increase of bismuth oxide and the decrease of pH levels and an intensification of toxicity in the Portland cement. White Portland cement (WPC) was mixed with 0, 15, 20, 30 and 50% bismuth oxide, in weight. For the pH level test, polyethylene tubes were filled with the cements and immersed in Milli-Q water for 15, 30 and 60 days. After each period, the increase of the pH level was assessed. For the biocompatibility, two polyethylene tubes filled with the cements were implanted in ninety albino rats (n=6). The analysis of the intensity of the inflammatory infiltrate was performed after 15, 30 and 60 days. The statistical analysis was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis, Dunn and Friedman tests for the pH level and the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn tests for the biological analysis (p<0.05). The results showed an increase of the pH level after 15 days, followed by a slight increase after 30 days and a decrease after 60 days. There were no significant statistical differences among the groups (p>0.05). For the inflammatory infiltrates, no significant statistical differences were found among the groups in each period (p>0.05). The 15% WPC showed a significant decrease of the inflammatory infiltrate from 15 to 30 and 60 days (p<0.05). The addition of bismuth oxide into Portland cement did not affect the pH level and the biological response. The concentration of 15% of bismuth oxide resulted in significant reduction in inflammatory response in comparison with the other concentrations evaluated.

Statistical validation of a solar wind propagation model from 1 to 10 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Bertalan; Hansen, Kenneth C.

2008-08-01

A one-dimensional (1-D) numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code is applied to propagate the solar wind from 1 AU through 10 AU, i.e., beyond the heliocentric distance of Saturn's orbit, in a non-rotating frame of reference. The time-varying boundary conditions at 1 AU are obtained from hourly solar wind data observed near the Earth. Although similar MHD simulations have been carried out and used by several authors, very little work has been done to validate the statistical accuracy of such solar wind predictions. In this paper, we present an extensive analysis of the prediction efficiency, using 12 selected years of solar wind data from the major heliospheric missions Pioneer, Voyager, and Ulysses. We map the numerical solution to each spacecraft in space and time, and validate the simulation, comparing the propagated solar wind parameters with in-situ observations. We do not restrict our statistical analysis to the times of spacecraft alignment, as most of the earlier case studies do. Our superposed epoch analysis suggests that the prediction efficiency is significantly higher during periods with high recurrence index of solar wind speed, typically in the late declining phase of the solar cycle. Among the solar wind variables, the solar wind speed can be predicted to the highest accuracy, with a linear correlation of 0.75 on average close to the time of opposition. We estimate the accuracy of shock arrival times to be as high as 10-15 hours within ±75 d from apparent opposition during years with high recurrence index. During solar activity maximum, there is a clear bias for the model to predicted shocks arriving later than observed in the data, suggesting that during these periods, there is an additional acceleration mechanism in the solar wind that is not included in the model.

The Evaluation of Feasibility of Thermal Energy Storage System at Riga TPP-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, P.; Linkevics, O.; Cers, A.

2015-12-01

The installation of thermal energy storage system (TES) provides the optimisation of energy source, energy security supply, power plant operation and energy production flexibility. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the feasibility of thermal energy system installation at Riga TPP-2. The six modes were investigated: four for non-heating periods and two for heating periods. Different research methods were used: data statistic processing, data analysis, analogy, forecasting, financial method and correlation and regression method. In the end, the best mode was chosen - the increase of cogeneration unit efficiency during the summer.

[DENTAL STATUS OF PATIENTS WITH INTRAUTERINE GROWTH RESTRICTION IN PAST HISTORY DURING PERIOD OF REMOVABLE AND PERMANENT DENTITION].

PubMed

Garmash, O V; Ryabokon, E N

2014-12-01

The analysis of the dental status in patients with IUGR in past history in period of removable and permanent dentition was conducted. 39 patients with intrauterine growth retardation in past history were examined. The clinical, statistical methods were held. Concluded that the child, who was born with IUGR, later in future life, has a great risk of dental diseases. The most considerable violations were found in patients with "symmetrical" form of intrauterine growth retardation. It is proposed to use clinical markers as possible predictors of periodontal diseases.

ENSO related variability in the Southern Hemisphere, 1948-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Mann, Michael E.

2003-01-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of Southern Hemisphere climate variability is diagnosed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1948-2000) dataset. Using the MTM-SVD analysis method, significant narrowband variability is isolated from the multi-variate dataset. It is found that the ENSO signal exhibits statistically significant behavior at quasiquadrennial (3-6 yr) timescales for the full time-period. A significant quasibiennial (2-3 yr) timescales emerges only for the latter half of period. Analyses of the spatial evolution of the two reconstructed signals shed additional light on linkages between low and high-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2009-09-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 70's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The study shows the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Complexity quantification of dense array EEG using sample entropy analysis.

PubMed

Ramanand, Pravitha; Nampoori, V P N; Sreenivasan, R

2004-09-01

In this paper, a time series complexity analysis of dense array electroencephalogram signals is carried out using the recently introduced Sample Entropy (SampEn) measure. This statistic quantifies the regularity in signals recorded from systems that can vary from the purely deterministic to purely stochastic realm. The present analysis is conducted with an objective of gaining insight into complexity variations related to changing brain dynamics for EEG recorded from the three cases of passive, eyes closed condition, a mental arithmetic task and the same mental task carried out after a physical exertion task. It is observed that the statistic is a robust quantifier of complexity suited for short physiological signals such as the EEG and it points to the specific brain regions that exhibit lowered complexity during the mental task state as compared to a passive, relaxed state. In the case of mental tasks carried out before and after the performance of a physical exercise, the statistic can detect the variations brought in by the intermediate fatigue inducing exercise period. This enhances its utility in detecting subtle changes in the brain state that can find wider scope for applications in EEG based brain studies.

Statistical analysis of major ion and trace element geochemistry of water, 1986-2006, at seven wells transecting the freshwater/saline-water interface of the Edwards Aquifer, San Antonio, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahler, Barbara J.

2008-01-01

The statistical analyses taken together indicate that the geochemistry at the freshwater-zone wells is more variable than that at the transition-zone wells. The geochemical variability at the freshwater-zone wells might result from dilution of ground water by meteoric water. This is indicated by relatively constant major ion molar ratios; a preponderance of positive correlations between SC, major ions, and trace elements; and a principal components analysis in which the major ions are strongly loaded on the first principal component. Much of the variability at three of the four transition-zone wells might result from the use of different laboratory analytical methods or reporting procedures during the period of sampling. This is reflected by a lack of correlation between SC and major ion concentrations at the transition-zone wells and by a principal components analysis in which the variability is fairly evenly distributed across several principal components. The statistical analyses further indicate that, although the transition-zone wells are less well connected to surficial hydrologic conditions than the freshwater-zone wells, there is some connection but the response time is longer. 

Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

2017-12-01

A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

Time Series Analysis of Soil Radon Data Using Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network in Seismic Precursory Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S.; Jaishi, H. P.; Tiwari, R. P.; Tiwari, R. C.

2017-07-01

This paper reports the analysis of soil radon data recorded in the seismic zone-V, located in the northeastern part of India (latitude 23.73N, longitude 92.73E). Continuous measurements of soil-gas emission along Chite fault in Mizoram (India) were carried out with the replacement of solid-state nuclear track detectors at weekly interval. The present study was done for the period from March 2013 to May 2015 using LR-115 Type II detectors, manufactured by Kodak Pathe, France. In order to reduce the influence of meteorological parameters, statistical analysis tools such as multiple linear regression and artificial neural network have been used. Decrease in radon concentration was recorded prior to some earthquakes that occurred during the observation period. Some false anomalies were also recorded which may be attributed to the ongoing crustal deformation which was not major enough to produce an earthquake.

Omics integrating physical techniques: aged Piedmontese meat analysis.

PubMed

Lana, Alessandro; Longo, Valentina; Dalmasso, Alessandra; D'Alessandro, Angelo; Bottero, Maria Teresa; Zolla, Lello

2015-04-01

Piedmontese meat tenderness becomes higher by extending the ageing period after slaughter up to 44 days. Classical physical analysis only partially explain this evidence, so in order to discover the reason of the potential beneficial effects of prolonged ageing, we performed omic analysis in the Longissimus thoracis muscle by examining main biochemical changes through mass spectrometry-based metabolomics and proteomics. We observed a progressive decline in myofibrillar structural integrity (underpinning meat tenderness) and impaired energy metabolism. Markers of autophagic responses (e.g. serine and glutathione metabolism) and nitrogen metabolism (urea cycle intermediates) accumulated until the end of the assayed period. Key metabolites such as glutamate, a mediator of the appreciated umami taste of the meat, were found to constantly accumulate until day 44. Finally, statistical analyses revealed that glutamate, serine and arginine could serve as good predictors of ultimate meat quality parameters, even though further studies are mandatory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploratory study on a statistical method to analyse time resolved data obtained during nanomaterial exposure measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clerc, F.; Njiki-Menga, G.-H.; Witschger, O.

2013-04-01

Most of the measurement strategies that are suggested at the international level to assess workplace exposure to nanomaterials rely on devices measuring, in real time, airborne particles concentrations (according different metrics). Since none of the instruments to measure aerosols can distinguish a particle of interest to the background aerosol, the statistical analysis of time resolved data requires special attention. So far, very few approaches have been used for statistical analysis in the literature. This ranges from simple qualitative analysis of graphs to the implementation of more complex statistical models. To date, there is still no consensus on a particular approach and the current period is always looking for an appropriate and robust method. In this context, this exploratory study investigates a statistical method to analyse time resolved data based on a Bayesian probabilistic approach. To investigate and illustrate the use of the this statistical method, particle number concentration data from a workplace study that investigated the potential for exposure via inhalation from cleanout operations by sandpapering of a reactor producing nanocomposite thin films have been used. In this workplace study, the background issue has been addressed through the near-field and far-field approaches and several size integrated and time resolved devices have been used. The analysis of the results presented here focuses only on data obtained with two handheld condensation particle counters. While one was measuring at the source of the released particles, the other one was measuring in parallel far-field. The Bayesian probabilistic approach allows a probabilistic modelling of data series, and the observed task is modelled in the form of probability distributions. The probability distributions issuing from time resolved data obtained at the source can be compared with the probability distributions issuing from the time resolved data obtained far-field, leading in a quantitative estimation of the airborne particles released at the source when the task is performed. Beyond obtained results, this exploratory study indicates that the analysis of the results requires specific experience in statistics.

Statistical summary and trend evaluation of air quality data for Cleveland, Ohio in 1967 to 1971: Total suspended particulate, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neustadter, H. E.; Sidik, S. M.; Burr, J. C., Jr.

1972-01-01

Air quality data for Cleveland, Ohio, for the period of 1967 to 1971 were collated and subjected to statistical analysis. The total suspended particulate component is lognormally distributed; while sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide are reasonably approximated by lognormal distributions. Only sulfur dioxide, in some residential neighborhoods, meets Ohio air quality standards. Air quality has definitely improved in the industrial valley, while in the rest of the city, only sulfur dioxide has shown consistent improvement. A pollution index is introduced which displays directly the degree to which the environmental air conforms to mandated standards.

Transient statistics in stabilizing periodic orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meucci, R.; Gadomski, W.; Ciofini, M.; Arecchi, F. T.

1995-11-01

The statistics of chaotic and periodic transient time intervals preceding the stabilization of a given periodic orbit have been experimentally studied in a CO2 laser with modulated losses, subjected to a small subharmonic perturbation. As predicted by the theory, an exponential tail has been found in the probability distribution of chaotic transients. Furthermore, a fine periodic structure in the distributions of the periodic transients, resulting from the interaction of the control signal and the local structure of the chaotic attractor, has been revealed.

1998 Idaho Public Library Statistics and Library Directory. A Compilation of Input and Output Measures and Other Statistics in Reference to Idaho's Public Libraries, Covering the Period October 1, 1997 to September 30, 1998.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Frank, Comp.

This report is a compilation of input and output measures and other statistics in reference to Idaho's public libraries, covering the period from October 1997 through September 1998. The introductory sections include notes on the statistics, definitions of performance measures, Idaho public library rankings for fiscal year 1996, and a state map…

Statistical physics in foreign exchange currency and stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausloos, M.

2000-09-01

Problems in economy and finance have attracted the interest of statistical physicists all over the world. Fundamental problems pertain to the existence or not of long-, medium- or/and short-range power-law correlations in various economic systems, to the presence of financial cycles and on economic considerations, including economic policy. A method like the detrended fluctuation analysis is recalled emphasizing its value in sorting out correlation ranges, thereby leading to predictability at short horizon. The ( m, k)-Zipf method is presented for sorting out short-range correlations in the sign and amplitude of the fluctuations. A well-known financial analysis technique, the so-called moving average, is shown to raise questions to physicists about fractional Brownian motion properties. Among spectacular results, the possibility of crash predictions has been demonstrated through the log-periodicity of financial index oscillations.

Phosphorylated neurofilament heavy: A potential blood biomarker to evaluate the severity of acute spinal cord injuries in adults

PubMed Central

Singh, Ajai; Kumar, Vineet; Ali, Sabir; Mahdi, Abbas Ali; Srivastava, Rajeshwer Nath

2017-01-01

Aims: The aim of this study is to analyze the serial estimation of phosphorylated neurofilament heavy (pNF-H) in blood plasma that would act as a potential biomarker for early prediction of the neurological severity of acute spinal cord injuries (SCI) in adults. Settings and Design: Pilot study/observational study. Subjects and Methods: A total of 40 patients (28 cases and 12 controls) of spine injury were included in this study. In the enrolled cases, plasma level of pNF-H was evaluated in blood samples and neurological evaluation was performed by the American Spinal Injury Association Injury Scale at specified period. Serial plasma neurofilament heavy values were then correlated with the neurological status of these patients during follow-up visits and were analyzed statistically. Statistical Analysis Used: Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad InStat software (version 3.05 for Windows, San Diego, CA, USA). The correlation analysis between the clinical progression and pNF-H expression was done using Spearman's correlation. Results: The mean baseline level of pNF-H in cases was 6.40 ± 2.49 ng/ml, whereas in controls it was 0.54 ± 0.27 ng/ml. On analyzing the association between the two by Mann–Whitney U–test, the difference in levels was found to be statistically significant. The association between the neurological progression and pNF-H expression was determined using correlation analysis (Spearman's correlation). At 95% confidence interval, the correlation coefficient was found to be 0.64, and the correlation was statistically significant. Conclusions: Plasma pNF-H levels were elevated in accordance with the severity of SCI. Therefore, pNF-H may be considered as a potential biomarker to determine early the severity of SCI in adult patients. PMID:29291173

Application of agrometeorological spectral model in rice area in southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leivas, Janice F.; de C. Teixeira, Antonio Heriberto; Andrade, Ricardo G.; de C. Victoria, Daniel; Bayma-Silva, Gustavo; Bolfe, Edson L.

2015-10-01

The southern region is responsible for 70% of rice production in Brazil. In this study, rice areas of Rio Grande do Sul were selected, using the land use classification, scale 1: 100,000, provided by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). MODIS Images were used and meteorological data, available by National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The period of analysis was crop season 2011/2012, October to March. To obtain evapotranspiration was applied agrometeorological-spectral model SAFER (Simple Algorithm For Retrieving Evapotranspiration). From the analysis of the results, on planting and cultivation period , the average evapotranspiration (ET) daily was 1.93 +/- 0.96 mm.day-1. In the vegetative development period of rice, the daily ET has achieved 4.94 mm.day-1, with average value 2,31+/- 0.97 mm.day-1. In the period of harvest, evapotranspiration daily average was 1.84 +/- 0.80 mm.day-1. From results obtained, the estimation of evapotranspiration from satellite images may assist in monitoring the culture during the cycle, assisting in estimates of water productivity and crop yield.

The effectiveness of a magnetized water oral irrigator (Hydro Floss) on plaque, calculus and gingival health.

PubMed

Johnson, K E; Sanders, J J; Gellin, R G; Palesch, Y Y

1998-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a magnetized water oral irrigator on plaque, calculus and gingival health. 29 patients completed this double-blind crossover study. Each patient was brought to baseline via an oral prophylaxis with a plaque index < or = 1 and a gingival index < or = 1. Subjects used the irrigator for a period of 3 months with the magnet and 3 months without the magnet. After each 3 month interval, data were collected using the plaque index, gingival index, and accretions index. The repeated measures analysis on plaque, gingival and calculus indices yielded a statistically-significant period effect for PlI (p=0.0343), GI (p=0.0091), and approached significance for calculus (p=0.0593). This meant that the effect of irrigation resulted in a decrease of all indices over time. Therefore, the treatment effect on each index was evaluated using only the measurements obtained at the end of the first period (i.e., assuming a parallel design). Irrigation with magnetized water resulted in 64% less calculus compared to the control group. The reduction was statistically significant (p< or =0.02). The reduction by 27% in gingival index was not statistically significant. The reduction in plaque was minimal (2.2%). A strong positive correlation between the plaque index and the Watt accretion index was observed. The magnetized water oral irrigator could be a useful adjunct in the prevention of calculus accumulation in periodontal patients, but appears to have minimal effect on plaque reduction. The results indicated a clinical improvement in the gingival index, but this was not a statistically significant finding.

Energy Finite Element Analysis for Computing the High Frequency Vibration of the Aluminum Testbed Cylinder and Correlating the Results to Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlahopoulos, Nickolas

2005-01-01

The Energy Finite Element Analysis (EFEA) is a finite element based computational method for high frequency vibration and acoustic analysis. The EFEA solves with finite elements governing differential equations for energy variables. These equations are developed from wave equations. Recently, an EFEA method for computing high frequency vibration of structures either in vacuum or in contact with a dense fluid has been presented. The presence of fluid loading has been considered through added mass and radiation damping. The EFEA developments were validated by comparing EFEA results to solutions obtained by very dense conventional finite element models and solutions from classical techniques such as statistical energy analysis (SEA) and the modal decomposition method for bodies of revolution. EFEA results have also been compared favorably with test data for the vibration and the radiated noise generated by a large scale submersible vehicle. The primary variable in EFEA is defined as the time averaged over a period and space averaged over a wavelength energy density. A joint matrix computed from the power transmission coefficients is utilized for coupling the energy density variables across any discontinuities, such as change of plate thickness, plate/stiffener junctions etc. When considering the high frequency vibration of a periodically stiffened plate or cylinder, the flexural wavelength is smaller than the interval length between two periodic stiffeners, therefore the stiffener stiffness can not be smeared by computing an equivalent rigidity for the plate or cylinder. The periodic stiffeners must be regarded as coupling components between periodic units. In this paper, Periodic Structure (PS) theory is utilized for computing the coupling joint matrix and for accounting for the periodicity characteristics.

Statistical analysis of the electric energy production from photovoltaic conversion using mobile and fixed constructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bugała, Artur; Bednarek, Karol; Kasprzyk, Leszek; Tomczewski, Andrzej

2017-10-01

The paper presents the most representative - from the three-year measurement time period - characteristics of daily and monthly electricity production from a photovoltaic conversion using modules installed in a fixed and 2-axis tracking construction. Results are presented for selected summer, autumn, spring and winter days. Analyzed measuring stand is located on the roof of the Faculty of Electrical Engineering Poznan University of Technology building. The basic parameters of the statistical analysis like mean value, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, median, range, or coefficient of variation were used. It was found that the asymmetry factor can be useful in the analysis of the daily electricity production from a photovoltaic conversion. In order to determine the repeatability of monthly electricity production, occurring between the summer, and summer and winter months, a non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test was used as a statistical solution. In order to analyze the repeatability of daily peak hours, describing the largest value of the hourly electricity production, a non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test was applied as an extension of the Mann-Whitney U test. Based on the analysis of the electric energy distribution from a prepared monitoring system it was found that traditional forecasting methods of the electricity production from a photovoltaic conversion, like multiple regression models, should not be the preferred methods of the analysis.

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Impact of Saharan dust particles on hospital admissions in Madrid (Spain).

PubMed

Reyes, María; Díaz, Julio; Tobias, Aurelio; Montero, Juan Carlos; Linares, Cristina

2014-01-01

Saharan dust intrusions make a major contribution to levels of particulate matter (PM) present in the atmosphere of large cities. We analysed the impact of different PM fractions during periods with and without Saharan dust intrusions, using time-series analysis with Poisson regression models, based on: concentrations of coarse PM (PM10 and PM10-2.5) and fine PM (PM2.5); and daily all-, circulatory- and respiratory-cause hospital admissions. While periods without Saharan dust intrusions were marked by a statistically significant association between daily mean PM2.5 concentrations and all- and circulatory-cause hospital admissions, periods with such intrusions saw a significant increase in respiratory-cause admissions associated with fractions corresponding to PM10 and PM10-2.5.

[Divisibility of warfarin and fluindione tablets tested in elderly patients and their family circle].

PubMed

Pautas, Eric; Despres, Jérémie; Peyron, Isabelle; Golmard, Jean-Louis; Grange, Jennifer; Koenig, Nelly; Gouronnec, Adeline; Mitha, Nathalie; Siguret, Virginie; Gouin-Thibault, Isabelle

2011-06-01

Vitamin K antagonist tablets are often split to fractionate the dose by elderly patients. We performed a study in order to assess the divisibility of one dosage strength of score-lined warfarin and of score-lined fluindione. Due to a recent change in the pharmaceutical form of fluindione in order to improve the divisibility, the study was performed over 2 different periods (with the « old » and with the « new » pharmaceutical form). In each period, 10 patients mean aged 82 years, 10 relatives, 10 nurses, 10 medical doctors) were asked to split in half warfarin tablets (W2 1(st) period et W2 2(d) period) and fluindione tablets (F2 et F'2), and to split fluindione tablets into 4 fragments (F4 et F'4). The first end-point was the accuracy of splitting estimated by the difference between the real and the expected weight of fragmented tablets. The statistical analysis was performed using an ANOVA test with 2 variables, subject and drug. The difference between the 2 periods were analyzed using an ANOVA test with 2 variables, subject and period. Over the 2 periods, the differences between real and expected weight were of 4.65% for W2 1(st) phase, 9.48% for F2, 15.35% for F4, 5.56% for W2 2(d )period, 4.30% for F'2, and 6.98% for F'4. The quality of splitting was statistically poorer in the elderly patient group compared to other subjects. This study was not design to assess the clinical relevance (bleeding or thromboembolism) or the anticoagulation control of the variations in drug mass due to inappropriate splitting of tablets. However, split form of drugs should be prescribe with caution to elderly patients.

Influence of Solar Variability on the North Atlantic / European Sector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, L. J.

2016-12-01

The 11year solar cycle signal in December-January-February averaged mean-sea-level pressure and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; 13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; 32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixd-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic / European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at 1-year lag that originates promarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.

The effect of kangaroo mother care on mental health of mothers with low birth weight infants.

PubMed

Badiee, Zohreh; Faramarzi, Salar; MiriZadeh, Tahereh

2014-01-01

The mothers of premature infants are at risk of psychological stress because of separation from their infants. One of the methods influencing the maternal mental health in the postpartum period is kangaroo mother care (KMC). This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of KMC of low birth weight infants on their maternal mental health. The study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran. Premature infants were randomly allocated into two groups. The control group received standard caring in the incubator. In the experimental group, caring with three sessions of 60 min KMC daily for 1 week was practiced. Mental health scores of the mothers were evaluated by using the 28-item General Health Questionnaire. Statistical analysis was performed by the analysis of covariance using SPSS. The scores of 50 infant-mother pairs were analyzed totally (25 in KMC group and 25 in standard care group). Results of covariance analysis showed the positive effects of KMC on the rate of maternal mental health scores. There were statistically significant differences between the mean scores of the experimental group and control subjects in the posttest period (P < 0.001). KMC for low birth weight infants is a safe way to improve maternal mental health. Therefore, it is suggested as a useful method that can be recommended for improving the mental health of mothers.

High solar activity predictions through an artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orozco-Del-Castillo, M. G.; Ortiz-Alemán, J. C.; Couder-Castañeda, C.; Hernández-Gómez, J. J.; Solís-Santomé, A.

The effects of high-energy particles coming from the Sun on human health as well as in the integrity of outer space electronics make the prediction of periods of high solar activity (HSA) a task of significant importance. Since periodicities in solar indexes have been identified, long-term predictions can be achieved. In this paper, we present a method based on an artificial neural network to find a pattern in some harmonics which represent such periodicities. We used data from 1973 to 2010 to train the neural network, and different historical data for its validation. We also used the neural network along with a statistical analysis of its performance with known data to predict periods of HSA with different confidence intervals according to the three-sigma rule associated with solar cycles 24-26, which we found to occur before 2040.

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelfang, S. I.

1978-01-01

Multivariate analysis was used to determine the joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from 15 years of twice-daily rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component change with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and that the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh are tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from 1 to 5 hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented. Extension of the theoretical prediction (based on rawinsonde data) of wind component change standard deviation to time periods of 1 to 5 hours falls (with a few exceptions) within the 95 percentile confidence band of the population estimate obtained from the Jimsphere sample data. The joint distributions of wind change components, conditional wind components, and 1 km vector wind shear change components are illustrated by probability ellipses at the 95 percentile level.

An Ultra-high Resolution Synthetic Precipitation Data for Ungauged Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hong-Joong; Choi, Kyung-Min; Oh, Jai-Ho

2018-05-01

Despite the enormous damage caused by record heavy rainfall, the amount of precipitation in areas without observation points cannot be known precisely. One way to overcome these difficulties is to estimate meteorological data at ungauged sites. In this study, we have used observation data over Seoul city to calculate high-resolution (250-meter resolution) synthetic precipitation over a 10-year (2005-2014) period. Furthermore, three cases are analyzed by evaluating the rainfall intensity and performing statistical analysis over the 10-year period. In the case where the typhoon "Meari" passed to the west coast during 28-30 June 2011, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.93 for seven validation points, which implies that the temporal correlation between the observed precipitation and synthetic precipitation was very good. It can be confirmed that the time series of observation and synthetic precipitation in the period almost completely matches the observed rainfall. On June 28-29, 2011, the estimation of 10 to 30 mm h-1 of continuous strong precipitation was correct. In addition, it is shown that the synthetic precipitation closely follows the observed precipitation for all three cases. Statistical analysis of 10 years of data reveals a very high correlation coefficient between synthetic precipitation and observed rainfall (0.86). Thus, synthetic precipitation data show good agreement with the observations. Therefore, the 250-m resolution synthetic precipitation amount calculated in this study is useful as basic data in weather applications, such as urban flood detection.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

During this period of performance, 1 March 1997 - 31 August 1997, the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 solar spectral irradiance data set was validated using both internal and external assessments. Initial quality checking revealed minor problems with the data (e.g. residual goniometric errors, that were manifest as differences between the two scans acquired each day). The sources of these errors were determined and the errors were corrected. Time series were constructed for selected wavelengths and the solar irradiance changes measured by the instrument were compared to a Mg II proxy-based model of short- and long-term solar irradiance variations. This analysis suggested that errors due to residual, uncorrected long-term instrument drift have been reduced to less than 1-2% over the entire 5.5 year NOAA-11 data record. Detailed statistical analysis was performed. This analysis, which will be documented in a manuscript now in preparation, conclusively demonstrates the evolution of solar rotation periodicity and strength during solar cycle 22.

Recurrence of attic cholesteatoma: different methods of estimating recurrence rates.

PubMed

Stangerup, S E; Drozdziewicz, D; Tos, M; Hougaard-Jensen, A

2000-09-01

One problem in cholesteatoma surgery is recurrence of cholesteatoma, which is reported to vary from 5% to 71%. This great variability can be explained by issues such as the type of cholesteatoma, surgical technique, follow-up rate, length of the postoperative observation period, and statistical method applied. The aim of this study was to illustrate the impact of applying different statistical methods to the same material. Thirty-three children underwent single-stage surgery for attic cholesteatoma during a 15-year period. Thirty patients (94%) attended a re-evaluation. During the observation period of 15 years, recurrence of cholesteatoma occurred in 10 ears. The cumulative total recurrence rate varied from 30% to 67%, depending on the statistical method applied. In conclusion, the choice of statistical method should depend on the number of patients, follow-up rates, length of the postoperative observation period and presence of censored data.

CAMERRA: An analysis tool for the computation of conformational dynamics by evaluating residue-residue associations.

PubMed

Johnson, Quentin R; Lindsay, Richard J; Shen, Tongye

2018-02-21

A computational method which extracts the dominant motions from an ensemble of biomolecular conformations via a correlation analysis of residue-residue contacts is presented. The algorithm first renders the structural information into contact matrices, then constructs the collective modes based on the correlated dynamics of a selected set of dynamic contacts. Associated programs can bridge the results for further visualization using graphics software. The aim of this method is to provide an analysis of conformations of biopolymers from the contact viewpoint. It may assist a systematical uncovering of conformational switching mechanisms existing in proteins and biopolymer systems in general by statistical analysis of simulation snapshots. In contrast to conventional correlation analyses of Cartesian coordinates (such as distance covariance analysis and Cartesian principal component analysis), this program also provides an alternative way to locate essential collective motions in general. Herein, we detail the algorithm in a stepwise manner and comment on the importance of the method as applied to decoding allosteric mechanisms. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Scientific Productivity on Research in Ethical Issues over the Past Half Century: A JoinPoint Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Long, Nguyen Phuoc; Huy, Nguyen Tien; Trang, Nguyen Thi Huyen; Luan, Nguyen Thien; Anh, Nguyen Hoang; Nghi, Tran Diem; Hieu, Mai Van; Hirayama, Kenji; Karbwang, Juntra

2014-09-01

Ethics is one of the main pillars in the development of science. We performed a JoinPoint regression analysis to analyze the trends of ethical issue research over the past half century. The question is whether ethical issues are neglected despite their importance in modern research. PubMed electronic library was used to retrieve publications of all fields and ethical issues. JoinPoint regression analysis was used to identify the significant time trends of publications of all fields and ethical issues, as well as the proportion of publications on ethical issues to all fields over the past half century. Annual percent changes (APC) were computed with their 95% confidence intervals, and a p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. We found that publications of ethical issues increased during the period of 1965-1996 but slightly fell in recent years (from 1996 to 2013). When comparing the absolute number of ethics related articles (APEI) to all publications of all fields (APAF) on PubMed, the results showed that the proportion of APEI to APAF statistically increased during the periods of 1965-1974, 1974-1986, and 1986-1993, with APCs of 11.0, 2.1, and 8.8, respectively. However, the trend has gradually dropped since 1993 and shown a marked decrease from 2002 to 2013 with an annual percent change of -7.4%. Scientific productivity in ethical issues research on over the past half century rapidly increased during the first 30-year period but has recently been in decline. Since ethics is an important aspect of scientific research, we suggest that greater attention is needed in order to emphasize the role of ethics in modern research.

Meta-analysis as Statistical and Analytical Method of Journal’s Content Scientific Evaluation

PubMed Central

Masic, Izet; Begic, Edin

2015-01-01

Introduction: A meta-analysis is a statistical and analytical method which combines and synthesizes different independent studies and integrates their results into one common result. Goal: Analysis of the journals “Medical Archives”, “Materia Socio Medica” and “Acta Informatica Medica”, which are located in the most eminent indexed databases of the biomedical milieu. Material and methods: The study has retrospective and descriptive character, and included the period of the calendar year 2014. Study included six editions of all three journals (total of 18 journals). Results: In this period was published a total of 291 articles (in the “Medical Archives” 110, “Materia Socio Medica” 97, and in “Acta Informatica Medica” 84). The largest number of articles was original articles. Small numbers have been published as professional, review articles and case reports. Clinical events were most common in the first two journals, while in the journal “Acta Informatica Medica” belonged to the field of medical informatics, as part of pre-clinical medical disciplines. Articles are usually required period of fifty to fifty nine days for review. Articles were received from four continents, mostly from Europe. The authors are most often from the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then Iran, Kosovo and Macedonia. Conclusion: The number of articles published each year is increasing, with greater participation of authors from different continents and abroad. Clinical medical disciplines are the most common, with the broader spectrum of topics and with a growing number of original articles. Greater support of the wider scientific community is needed for further development of all three of the aforementioned journals. PMID:25870484

Recherche d'une politique de gestion des stocks d'eau de barrages-réservoirs en vue de soutenir les étiages. 1. Élaboration d'un modèle alterné annuel apports-déficits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocquillon, C.; Masson, J. M.

1983-01-01

Lack of water supply during periods of deficient flow affects the economic potentiality of the great river valleys which are the most developed areas in the country. Reservoir dams built in the upper stream catchments store excess flow and provide controlled release in the dry season. Capital costs of construction and the consequences of failures justify a thorough study of operating rules. The low flows and conditional variability of availability of water call for carry-over procedures (reservoir capacity is sometimes greater than the mean available water). It is not possible to predict future sequence of flows, thus the carry-over rule is a statistical decision-making tool. The flow data are only one of the very many possible sources of information. But the analysis of flow data provides us with statistical measures to generate long series of synthetic inflows associated with summer deficits. A simplification has been introduced by choosing only the values which are absolutely necessary for optimal management research: available water volumes and reserve volumes for a flow threshold. Yearly alternate periods of excess and deficiency of water are defined by the values above and below a threshold of flow discharge at a location gage named "objective point", where the reservoir effects are to be estimated. Yearly periods are described by water volumes, either inflows into reservoirs, or deficits below various thresholds of summer flow discharges. Marginal and conditional probability distributions of these volumes and the physical laws which mark their bounds and relationships were estimated on the basis of 31 years of daily flow records. The synthetic simulated series for 1000 years was compared to records of historical levels (since 1863). Extreme events such as sequences of dry years, have return periods of comparable magnitude. This synthetic series has a similar statistical character of short historical series and makes the analysis of operating rules possible.

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Some statistical features of the seismic activity related to the recent M8.2 and M7.1 earthquakes in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, L.; Baeza-Blancas, E.; Reyes, I.; Angulo Brown, F.; Rudolf Navarro, A.

2017-12-01

By studying the magnitude earthquake catalogs, previous studies have reported evidence that some changes in the spatial and temporal organization of earthquake activity is observedbefore and after of a main-shock. These previous studies have used different approach methods for detecting clustering behavior and distance-events density in order topoint out the asymmetric behavior of before shocks and aftershocks. Here, we present a statistical analysis of the seismic activity related to the M8.2 and M7.1 earthquakes occurredon Sept. 7th and Sept. 19th, respectively. First, we calculated the interevent time and distance for the period Sept. 7th 2016 until Oct. 20th 2017 for each seismic region ( a radius of 150 km centeredat coordinates of the M8.1 and M7.1). Next, we calculated the "velocity" of the walker as the ratio between the interevent distance and interevent time, and similarly, we also constructed the"acceleration". A slider pointer is considered to estimate some statistical features within time windows of size τ for the velocity and acceleration sequences before and after the main shocks. Specifically, we applied the fractal dimension method to detect changes in the correlation (persistence) behavior of events in the period before the main events.Our preliminary results pointed out that the fractal dimension associated to the velocity and acceleration sequences exhibits changes in the persistence behavior before the mainshock, while thescaling dimension values after the main events resemble a more uncorrelated behavior. Moreover, the relationship between the standard deviation of the velocity and the local mean velocity valuefor a given time window-size τ is described by an exponent close to 1.5, and the cumulative distribution of velocity and acceleration are well described by power law functions after the crash and stretched-exponential-like distribution before the main shock. On the other hand, we present an analysis of patterns of seismicquiescence before the M8.2 earthquake based on the Schreider algorithmover a period of 27 years. This analysis also includes the modificationof the Schreider method proposed by Muñoz-Diosdado et al. (2015).

The quality of quality of life publications in the spinal literature: are we getting any better?

PubMed

Street, John; Lenehan, Brian; Fisher, Charles

2009-11-01

Criteria for methodological quality have been widely accepted in many fields of surgical practice. These criteria include those of Velanovich and Gill and Feinstein. No such analysis of the spine surgery literature has ever been reported. This study is a systematic review of the quality of life (QOL) publications to determine if the recent interest in QOL measurements following spinal surgery has been accompanied by an improvement in the quality of the papers published. The archives of the journals Journal of Neurosurgery: Spine, Spine, Journal of Spinal Disorders & Techniques, European Spine Journal, and The Spine Journal, for the years 2000-2004 inclusive, were examined, and all publications reporting QOL outcomes were analyzed. Each paper was scored according to the criteria of Velanovich and Gill and Feinstein, and the methodological quality of these manuscripts-and any time-dependent changes-were determined. During the study period, the total number of articles published increased by 36%, while the number of QOL articles increased by 102%. According to the criteria of Velanovich, there was a statistically significant improvement in the quality of the publications over the study period (p = 0.0394). In 2000, only 27% of outcome measures were disease specific, 77% were valid, and 77% were appropriate for the study design. In 2004, 43% were disease specific, 88% were valid, and 89% were appropriate. In 2000, 53% of studies used appropriate statistical analysis compared with 100 and 96% for 2003 and 2004, respectively. There was no demonstrable improvement in the fulfillment of the more rigorous Gill and Feinstein criteria for any of the 5 journals over the period of the study. The authors' study illustrates a moderate improvement in the quality of these publications over the study period but much methodological improvement is required.

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also individual extreme events. Since the predicted loss estimates, typically in the form of a curve plotting return period against modelled loss, are used in the pricing of reinsurance, we demonstrate the importance of the estimated return period and understanding the uncertainties associated with it.

Randomized clinical trial of encapsulated and hand-mixed glass-ionomer ART restorations: one-year follow-up.

PubMed

Freitas, Maria Cristina Carvalho de Almendra; Fagundes, Ticiane Cestari; Modena, Karin Cristina da Silva; Cardia, Guilherme Saintive; Navarro, Maria Fidela de Lima

2018-01-18

This prospective, randomized, split-mouth clinical trial evaluated the clinical performance of conventional glass ionomer cement (GIC; Riva Self-Cure, SDI), supplied in capsules or in powder/liquid kits and placed in Class I cavities in permanent molars by the Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) approach. A total of 80 restorations were randomly placed in 40 patients aged 11-15 years. Each patient received one restoration with each type of GIC. The restorations were evaluated after periods of 15 days (baseline), 6 months, and 1 year, according to ART criteria. Wilcoxon matched pairs, multivariate logistic regression, and Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were used for statistical analysis. Patients were evaluated after 15 days (n=40), 6 months (n=34), and 1 year (n=29). Encapsulated GICs showed significantly superior clinical performance compared with hand-mixed GICs at baseline (p=0.017), 6 months (p=0.001), and 1 year (p=0.026). For hand-mixed GIC, a statistically significant difference was only observed over the period of baseline to 1 year (p=0.001). Encapsulated GIC presented statistically significant differences for the following periods: 6 months to 1 year (p=0.028) and baseline to 1 year (p=0.002). Encapsulated GIC presented superior cumulative survival rate than hand-mixed GIC over one year. Importantly, both GICs exhibited decreased survival over time. Encapsulated GIC promoted better ART performance, with an annual failure rate of 24%; in contrast, hand-mixed GIC demonstrated a failure rate of 42%.

[Pleural mesothelioma mortality in Italy: time series reconstruction (1970-2009) and comparison with incidence (2003-2008)].

PubMed

Ferrante, Pierpaolo; Mastrantonio, Marina; Uccelli, Raffaella; Corfiati, Marisa; Marinaccio, Alessandro

2016-01-01

the large amount of asbestos used in many Countries (including Italy) is causing an epidemic of asbestos related diseases, which is still ongoing because of their long latency. this study is aimed at reconstructing Italian time series of deaths for mesothelioma in the period 1970-2009 and comparing Italian incidence and mortality data. deaths for pleural cancer (1970-2003,2006-2009) and mesothelioma (2003, 2006-2009) were recorded by the Italian Institute of Statistics (Istat) and provided by the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA), incidence cases (1993-2008) were provided by the Italian mesotheliomas register (ReNaM) at the Italian National Workers' Compensation Authority (Inail). For the period before ICD-10 implementation (1970-2002) and when Istat data (2004-2005) are lacking, mesothelioma deaths were estimated through statistical models (logistic, Poisson). National incidence and mortality data were compared during the overlapping period (2003, 2006-2008). the mortality curve strongly rises from 1970 and seems to be smoothed in the last years. Mortality caused by mesothelioma and incident cases with certain diagnosis are overlapping, as are mortality due to pleural cancer other than mesothelioma and mesothelioma incidence with uncertain diagnosis (probable/possible). this epidemiological analysis of deaths encoded as pleural tumour suggests to carefully investigate space-temporal distribution before excluding they could be mesotheliomas. Some new lights have been thrown on the statistical behaviour of mesothelioma mortality.

Magnetorotational dynamo chimeras. The missing link to turbulent accretion disk dynamo models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riols, A.; Rincon, F.; Cossu, C.; Lesur, G.; Ogilvie, G. I.; Longaretti, P.-Y.

2017-02-01

In Keplerian accretion disks, turbulence and magnetic fields may be jointly excited through a subcritical dynamo mechanisminvolving magnetorotational instability (MRI). This dynamo may notably contribute to explaining the time-variability of various accreting systems, as high-resolution simulations of MRI dynamo turbulence exhibit statistical self-organization into large-scale cyclic dynamics. However, understanding the physics underlying these statistical states and assessing their exact astrophysical relevance is theoretically challenging. The study of simple periodic nonlinear MRI dynamo solutions has recently proven useful in this respect, and has highlighted the role of turbulent magnetic diffusion in the seeming impossibility of a dynamo at low magnetic Prandtl number (Pm), a common regime in disks. Arguably though, these simple laminar structures may not be fully representative of the complex, statistically self-organized states expected in astrophysical regimes. Here, we aim at closing this seeming discrepancy by reporting the numerical discovery of exactly periodic, yet semi-statistical "chimeral MRI dynamo states" which are the organized outcome of a succession of MRI-unstable, non-axisymmetric dynamical stages of different forms and amplitudes. Interestingly, these states, while reminiscent of the statistical complexity of turbulent simulations, involve the same physical principles as simpler laminar cycles, and their analysis further confirms the theory that subcritical turbulent magnetic diffusion impedes the sustainment of an MRI dynamo at low Pm. Overall, chimera dynamo cycles therefore offer an unprecedented dual physical and statistical perspective on dynamos in rotating shear flows, which may prove useful in devising more accurate, yet intuitive mean-field models of time-dependent turbulent disk dynamos. Movies associated to Fig. 1 are available at http://www.aanda.org

Reduction of post-surgical scarring with the use of ablative fractional CO2 lasers: A pilot study using a porcine model.

PubMed

Baca, Marissa E; Neaman, Keith C; Rapp, Derek A; Burton, Michael E; Mann, Robert J; Renucci, John D

2017-01-01

Wound healing inevitably leads to scarring, which leads to functional and cosmetic defects. It is the goal of this study to investigate the immediate use of ablative fractional CO 2 lasers to reduce post-operative scarring secondary to surgical wounds. In this prospective controlled study, 20 surgical incisions were created on each of three pigs. Fifteen of the incisions were treated with an ablative fractional CO 2 laser at one of three laser settings. The remaining five incisions served as a control. Punch biopsies were taken post-operatively over time. Digital photographs were taken of each incisional scar at each time period. Blinded evaluators used a previously verified scoring system to score photographs of the incisional scars taken at the 6 month time period. With regards to the comparison between the three individual laser treatment groups and the control, there were no statistically significant effects for treatment (P = 0.40), time (P = 0.48), or for the interaction of time and treatment (P = 0.57). With regards to the visual assessment tool, there were no statistically significant differences between treatments for Overall Appearance (P = 0.21) or for Total Score (P = 0.24). In the limited setting of this pilot study, treatment of surgical incisions with ablative fractional CO 2 lasers does not significantly lessen scar formation. In addition, photographic analysis was not able to demonstrate a significant difference. Future studies on this topic will need a larger sample size to better answer whether a statistically significant difference may exist. Lasers Surg. Med. 49:122-128, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determination of ABO blood grouping and Rhesus factor from tooth material

PubMed Central

Kumar, Pooja Vijay; Vanishree, M; Anila, K; Hunasgi, Santosh; Suryadevra, Sri Sujan; Kardalkar, Swetha

2016-01-01

Objective: The aim of the study was to determine blood groups and Rhesus factor from dentin and pulp using absorption-elution (AE) technique in different time periods at 0, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, respectively. Materials and Methods: A total of 150 cases, 30 patients each at 0, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were included in the study. The samples consisted of males and females with age ranging 13–60 years. Patient's blood group was checked and was considered as “control.” The dentin and pulp of extracted teeth were tested for the presence of ABO/Rh antigen, at respective time periods by AE technique. Statistical Analysis: Data were analyzed in proportion. For comparison, Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test was used for the small sample. Results: Blood group antigens of ABO and Rh factor were detected in dentin and pulp up to 12 months. For both ABO and Rh factor, dentin and pulp showed 100% sensitivity for the samples tested at 0 month and showed a gradual decrease in the sensitivity as time period increased. The sensitivity of pulp was better than dentin for both the blood grouping systems and ABO blood group antigens were better detected than Rh antigens. Conclusion: In dentin and pulp, the antigens of ABO and Rh factor were detected up to 12 months but showed a progressive decrease in the antigenicity as the time period increased. When compared the results obtained of dentin and pulp in ABO and Rh factor grouping showed similar results with no statistical significance. The sensitivity of ABO blood grouping was better than Rh factor blood grouping and showed a statistically significant result. PMID:27721625

Modeling the temporal periodicity of growth increments based on harmonic functions

PubMed Central

Morales-Bojórquez, Enrique; González-Peláez, Sergio Scarry; Bautista-Romero, J. Jesús; Lluch-Cota, Daniel Bernardo

2018-01-01

Age estimation methods based on hard structures require a process of validation to confirm the periodical pattern of growth marks. Among such processes, one of the most used is the marginal increment ratio (MIR), which was stated to follow a sinusoidal cycle in a population. Despite its utility, in most cases, its implementation has lacked robust statistical analysis. Accordingly, we propose a modeling approach for the temporal periodicity of growth increments based on single and second order harmonic functions. For illustrative purposes, the MIR periodicities for two geoduck species (Panopea generosa and Panopea globosa) were modeled to identify the periodical pattern of growth increments in the shell. This model identified an annual periodicity for both species but described different temporal patterns. The proposed procedure can be broadly used to objectively define the timing of the peak, the degree of symmetry, and therefore, the synchrony of band deposition of different species on the basis of MIR data. PMID:29694381

Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: impact of statistical tests

PubMed Central

Cazelles, Bernard; Cazelles, Kévin; Chavez, Mario

2014-01-01

Wavelet analysis is now frequently used to extract information from ecological and epidemiological time series. Statistical hypothesis tests are conducted on associated wavelet quantities to assess the likelihood that they are due to a random process. Such random processes represent null models and are generally based on synthetic data that share some statistical characteristics with the original time series. This allows the comparison of null statistics with those obtained from original time series. When creating synthetic datasets, different techniques of resampling result in different characteristics shared by the synthetic time series. Therefore, it becomes crucial to consider the impact of the resampling method on the results. We have addressed this point by comparing seven different statistical testing methods applied with different real and simulated data. Our results show that statistical assessment of periodic patterns is strongly affected by the choice of the resampling method, so two different resampling techniques could lead to two different conclusions about the same time series. Moreover, our results clearly show the inadequacy of resampling series generated by white noise and red noise that are nevertheless the methods currently used in the wide majority of wavelets applications. Our results highlight that the characteristics of a time series, namely its Fourier spectrum and autocorrelation, are important to consider when choosing the resampling technique. Results suggest that data-driven resampling methods should be used such as the hidden Markov model algorithm and the ‘beta-surrogate’ method. PMID:24284892

Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: impact of statistical tests.

PubMed

Cazelles, Bernard; Cazelles, Kévin; Chavez, Mario

2014-02-06

Wavelet analysis is now frequently used to extract information from ecological and epidemiological time series. Statistical hypothesis tests are conducted on associated wavelet quantities to assess the likelihood that they are due to a random process. Such random processes represent null models and are generally based on synthetic data that share some statistical characteristics with the original time series. This allows the comparison of null statistics with those obtained from original time series. When creating synthetic datasets, different techniques of resampling result in different characteristics shared by the synthetic time series. Therefore, it becomes crucial to consider the impact of the resampling method on the results. We have addressed this point by comparing seven different statistical testing methods applied with different real and simulated data. Our results show that statistical assessment of periodic patterns is strongly affected by the choice of the resampling method, so two different resampling techniques could lead to two different conclusions about the same time series. Moreover, our results clearly show the inadequacy of resampling series generated by white noise and red noise that are nevertheless the methods currently used in the wide majority of wavelets applications. Our results highlight that the characteristics of a time series, namely its Fourier spectrum and autocorrelation, are important to consider when choosing the resampling technique. Results suggest that data-driven resampling methods should be used such as the hidden Markov model algorithm and the 'beta-surrogate' method.

Evaluation of thermograph data for California streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Limerinos, J.T.

1978-01-01

Statistical analysis of water-temperature data from California streams indicates that, for most purposes, long-term operation of thermographs (automatic water-temperature recording instruments) does not provide a more useful record than either short-term operation of such instruments or periodic measurements. Harmonic analyses were made of thermograph records 5 to 14 years in length from 82 stations. More than 80 percent of the annual variation in water temperature is explained by the harmonic function for 77 of the 82 stations. Harmonic coefficients based on 8 years of thermograph record at 12 stations varied only slightly from coefficients computed using two equally split 4-year records. At five stations where both thermograph and periodic (10 to 23 measurements per year) data were collected concurrently, harmonic coefficients for periodic data were defined nearly as well as those for thermograph data. Results of this analysis indicate that, except where detailed surveillance of water temperatures is required or where there is a chance of temporal change, thermograph operations can be reduced substantially without affecting the usefulness of temperature records.

Statistical software applications used in health services research: analysis of published studies in the U.S

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background This study aims to identify the statistical software applications most commonly employed for data analysis in health services research (HSR) studies in the U.S. The study also examines the extent to which information describing the specific analytical software utilized is provided in published articles reporting on HSR studies. Methods Data were extracted from a sample of 1,139 articles (including 877 original research articles) published between 2007 and 2009 in three U.S. HSR journals, that were considered to be representative of the field based upon a set of selection criteria. Descriptive analyses were conducted to categorize patterns in statistical software usage in those articles. The data were stratified by calendar year to detect trends in software use over time. Results Only 61.0% of original research articles in prominent U.S. HSR journals identified the particular type of statistical software application used for data analysis. Stata and SAS were overwhelmingly the most commonly used software applications employed (in 46.0% and 42.6% of articles respectively). However, SAS use grew considerably during the study period compared to other applications. Stratification of the data revealed that the type of statistical software used varied considerably by whether authors were from the U.S. or from other countries. Conclusions The findings highlight a need for HSR investigators to identify more consistently the specific analytical software used in their studies. Knowing that information can be important, because different software packages might produce varying results, owing to differences in the software's underlying estimation methods. PMID:21977990

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Jesse P.

1989-01-01

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

StatisticAl Characteristics of Cloud over Beijing, China Obtained FRom Ka band Doppler Radar Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LIU, J.; Bi, Y.; Duan, S.; Lu, D.

2017-12-01

It is well-known that cloud characteristics, such as top and base heights and their layering structure of micro-physical parameters, spatial coverage and temporal duration are very important factors influencing both radiation budget and its vertical partitioning as well as hydrological cycle through precipitation data. Also, cloud structure and their statistical distribution and typical values will have respective characteristics with geographical and seasonal variation. Ka band radar is a powerful tool to obtain above parameters around the world, such as ARM cloud radar at the Oklahoma US, Since 2006, Cloudsat is one of NASA's A-Train satellite constellation, continuously observe the cloud structure with global coverage, but only twice a day it monitor clouds over same local site at same local time.By using IAP Ka band Doppler radar which has been operating continuously since early 2013 over the roof of IAP building in Beijing, we obtained the statistical characteristic of clouds, including cloud layering, cloud top and base heights, as well as the thickness of each cloud layer and their distribution, and were analyzed monthly and seasonal and diurnal variation, statistical analysis of cloud reflectivity profiles is also made. The analysis covers both non-precipitating clouds and precipitating clouds. Also, some preliminary comparison of the results with Cloudsat/Calipso products for same period and same area are made.

The Updated Multiple Star Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokovinin, Andrei

2018-03-01

The catalog of hierarchical stellar systems with three or more components is an update of the original 1997 version. For 2000 hierarchies, the new Multiple Star Catalog (MSC) provides distances, component masses and periods, and supplementary information (astrometry, photometry, identifiers, orbits, notes). The MSC content and format are explained, and its incompleteness and strong observational selection are stressed. Nevertheless, the MSC can be used for statistical studies and is a valuable source for planning observations of multiple stars. Rare classes of stellar hierarchies found in the MSC (with six or seven components, extremely eccentric orbits, planar and possibly resonant orbits, hosting planets) are briefly presented. High-order hierarchies have smaller velocity dispersion compared to triples and are often associated with moving groups. The paper concludes with an analysis of the ratio of periods and separations between inner and outer subsystems. In wide hierarchies, the ratio of semimajor axes, estimated statistically, is distributed between 3 and 300, with no evidence of dynamically unstable systems.

Using statistical process control methods to trace small changes in perinatal mortality after a training program in a low-resource setting.

PubMed

Mduma, Estomih R; Ersdal, Hege; Kvaloy, Jan Terje; Svensen, Erling; Mdoe, Paschal; Perlman, Jeffrey; Kidanto, Hussein Lessio; Soreide, Eldar

2018-05-01

To trace and document smaller changes in perinatal survival over time. Prospective observational study, with retrospective analysis. Labor ward and operating theater at Haydom Lutheran Hospital in rural north-central Tanzania. All women giving birth and birth attendants. Helping Babies Breathe (HBB) simulation training on newborn care and resuscitation and some other efforts to improve perinatal outcome. Perinatal survival, including fresh stillbirths and early (24-h) newborn survival. The variable life-adjusted plot and cumulative sum chart revealed a steady improvement in survival over time, after the baseline period. There were some variations throughout the study period, and some of these could be linked to different interventions and events. To our knowledge, this is the first time statistical process control methods have been used to document changes in perinatal mortality over time in a rural Sub-Saharan hospital, showing a steady increase in survival. These methods can be utilized to continuously monitor and describe changes in patient outcomes.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida: Wind aloft profile change vs. time, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelfang, S. I.

1977-01-01

Wind vector change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is examined according to the theory of multivariate normality. The joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from fifteen years of twice daily Rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh, has been tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from one to five hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented.

Quantifying memory in complex physiological time-series.

PubMed

Shirazi, Amir H; Raoufy, Mohammad R; Ebadi, Haleh; De Rui, Michele; Schiff, Sami; Mazloom, Roham; Hajizadeh, Sohrab; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar; Dehpour, Ahmad R; Amodio, Piero; Jafari, G Reza; Montagnese, Sara; Mani, Ali R

2013-01-01

In a time-series, memory is a statistical feature that lasts for a period of time and distinguishes the time-series from a random, or memory-less, process. In the present study, the concept of "memory length" was used to define the time period, or scale over which rare events within a physiological time-series do not appear randomly. The method is based on inverse statistical analysis and provides empiric evidence that rare fluctuations in cardio-respiratory time-series are 'forgotten' quickly in healthy subjects while the memory for such events is significantly prolonged in pathological conditions such as asthma (respiratory time-series) and liver cirrhosis (heart-beat time-series). The memory length was significantly higher in patients with uncontrolled asthma compared to healthy volunteers. Likewise, it was significantly higher in patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared to those with compensated cirrhosis and healthy volunteers. We also observed that the cardio-respiratory system has simple low order dynamics and short memory around its average, and high order dynamics around rare fluctuations.

Quantifying Memory in Complex Physiological Time-Series

PubMed Central

Shirazi, Amir H.; Raoufy, Mohammad R.; Ebadi, Haleh; De Rui, Michele; Schiff, Sami; Mazloom, Roham; Hajizadeh, Sohrab; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar; Dehpour, Ahmad R.; Amodio, Piero; Jafari, G. Reza; Montagnese, Sara; Mani, Ali R.

2013-01-01

In a time-series, memory is a statistical feature that lasts for a period of time and distinguishes the time-series from a random, or memory-less, process. In the present study, the concept of “memory length” was used to define the time period, or scale over which rare events within a physiological time-series do not appear randomly. The method is based on inverse statistical analysis and provides empiric evidence that rare fluctuations in cardio-respiratory time-series are ‘forgotten’ quickly in healthy subjects while the memory for such events is significantly prolonged in pathological conditions such as asthma (respiratory time-series) and liver cirrhosis (heart-beat time-series). The memory length was significantly higher in patients with uncontrolled asthma compared to healthy volunteers. Likewise, it was significantly higher in patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared to those with compensated cirrhosis and healthy volunteers. We also observed that the cardio-respiratory system has simple low order dynamics and short memory around its average, and high order dynamics around rare fluctuations. PMID:24039811

A statistical model investigating the prevalence of tuberculosis in New York City using counting processes with two change-points

PubMed Central

ACHCAR, J. A.; MARTINEZ, E. Z.; RUFFINO-NETTO, A.; PAULINO, C. D.; SOARES, P.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY We considered a Bayesian analysis for the prevalence of tuberculosis cases in New York City from 1970 to 2000. This counting dataset presented two change-points during this period. We modelled this counting dataset considering non-homogeneous Poisson processes in the presence of the two-change points. A Bayesian analysis for the data is considered using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Simulated Gibbs samples for the parameters of interest were obtained using WinBugs software. PMID:18346287

Statistical and Spectral Analysis of Wind Characteristics Relevant to Wind Energy Assessment Using Tower Measurements in Complex Terrain

DOE PAGES

Belu, Radian; Koracin, Darko

2013-01-01

The main objective of the study was to investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of the wind speed and direction in complex terrain that are relevant to wind energy assessment and development, as well as to wind energy system operation, management, and grid integration. Wind data from five tall meteorological towers located in Western Nevada, USA, operated from August 2003 to March 2008, used in the analysis. The multiannual average wind speeds did not show significant increased trend with increasing elevation, while the turbulence intensity slowly decreased with an increase were the average wind speed. The wind speed and direction weremore » modeled using the Weibull and the von Mises distribution functions. The correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multiday periodicity with increasing lag periods. The spectral analysis shows significant annual periodicity with similar characteristics at all locations. The relatively high correlations between the towers and small range of the computed turbulence intensity indicate that wind variability is dominated by the regional synoptic processes. Knowledge and information about daily, seasonal, and annual wind periodicities are very important for wind energy resource assessment, wind power plant operation, management, and grid integration.« less

Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

2017-04-01

Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic and drought statistic of the historical data. A multi-objective analysis using basic statistics (mean, standard deviation and asymmetry coefficient) and droughts statistics (duration, magnitude and intensity) has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to reproduce the historical series. The drought statistics have been obtained from the Standard Precipitation index (SPI) series using the Theory of Runs. This analysis allows discriminate the best RCM and the best combination of model and correction technique in the bias-correction method. We have also analyzed the possibilities of using different Stochastic Weather Generators to approximate the basic and droughts statistics of the historical series. These analyses have been performed in our case study in a lumped and in a distributed way in order to assess its sensibility to the spatial scale. The statistic of the future temperature series obtained with different ensemble options are quite homogeneous, but the precipitation shows a higher sensibility to the adopted method and spatial scale. The global increment in the mean temperature values are 31.79 %, 31.79 %, 31.03 % and 31.74 % for the distributed bias-correction, distributed delta-change, lumped bias-correction and lumped delta-change ensembles respectively and in the precipitation they are -25.48 %, -28.49 %, -26.42 % and -27.35% respectively. Acknowledgments: This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study and the R package qmap.

Dark matter as a trigger for periodic comet impacts.

PubMed

Randall, Lisa; Reece, Matthew

2014-04-25

Although statistical evidence is not overwhelming, possible support for an approximately 35×106  yr periodicity in the crater record on Earth could indicate a nonrandom underlying enhancement of meteorite impacts at regular intervals. A proposed explanation in terms of tidal effects on Oort cloud comet perturbations as the Solar System passes through the galactic midplane is hampered by lack of an underlying cause for sufficiently enhanced gravitational effects over a sufficiently short time interval and by the time frame between such possible enhancements. We show that a smooth dark disk in the galactic midplane would address both these issues and create a periodic enhancement of the sort that has potentially been observed. Such a disk is motivated by a novel dark matter component with dissipative cooling that we considered in earlier work. We show how to evaluate the statistical evidence for periodicity by input of appropriate measured priors from the galactic model, justifying or ruling out periodic cratering with more confidence than by evaluating the data without an underlying model. We find that, marginalizing over astrophysical uncertainties, the likelihood ratio for such a model relative to one with a constant cratering rate is 3.0, which moderately favors the dark disk model. Our analysis furthermore yields a posterior distribution that, based on current crater data, singles out a dark matter disk surface density of approximately 10M⊙/pc2. The geological record thereby motivates a particular model of dark matter that will be probed in the near future.

Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search: Motivation & Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caceres, Gabriel; Feigelson, Eric; Jogesh Babu, G.; Bahamonde, Natalia; Bertin, Karine; Christen, Alejandra; Curé, Michel; Meza, Cristian

2015-08-01

The Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS) project uses statistical methodology associated with autoregressive (AR) processes to model Kepler lightcurves in order to improve exoplanet transit detection in systems with high stellar variability. We also introduce a planet-search algorithm to detect transits in time-series residuals after application of the AR models. One of the main obstacles in detecting faint planetary transits is the intrinsic stellar variability of the host star. The variability displayed by many stars may have autoregressive properties, wherein later flux values are correlated with previous ones in some manner. Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models, Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and related models are flexible, phenomenological methods used with great success to model stochastic temporal behaviors in many fields of study, particularly econometrics. Powerful statistical methods are implemented in the public statistical software environment R and its many packages. Modeling involves maximum likelihood fitting, model selection, and residual analysis. These techniques provide a useful framework to model stellar variability and are used in KARPS with the objective of reducing stellar noise to enhance opportunities to find as-yet-undiscovered planets. Our analysis procedure consisting of three steps: pre-processing of the data to remove discontinuities, gaps and outliers; ARMA-type model selection and fitting; and transit signal search of the residuals using a new Transit Comb Filter (TCF) that replaces traditional box-finding algorithms. We apply the procedures to simulated Kepler-like time series with known stellar and planetary signals to evaluate the effectiveness of the KARPS procedures. The ARMA-type modeling is effective at reducing stellar noise, but also reduces and transforms the transit signal into ingress/egress spikes. A periodogram based on the TCF is constructed to concentrate the signal of these periodic spikes. When a periodic transit is found, the model is displayed on a standard period-folded averaged light curve. We also illustrate the efficient coding in R.

Identification of Climatic Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Infections in Northern Greece.

PubMed

Stilianakis, Nikolaos I; Syrris, Vasileios; Petroliagkis, Thomas; Pärt, Peeter; Gewehr, Sandra; Kalaitzopoulou, Stella; Mourelatos, Spiros; Baka, Agoritsa; Pervanidou, Danai; Vontas, John; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2016-01-01

Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010-2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979-2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979-2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010-2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air temperature, climatic factors such as soil temperature, relative humidity, soil water content and wind speed may affect the epidemiology of WNV.

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

2016-03-01

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

Statistical Analysis of Zebrafish Locomotor Response.

PubMed

Liu, Yiwen; Carmer, Robert; Zhang, Gaonan; Venkatraman, Prahatha; Brown, Skye Ashton; Pang, Chi-Pui; Zhang, Mingzhi; Ma, Ping; Leung, Yuk Fai

2015-01-01

Zebrafish larvae display rich locomotor behaviour upon external stimulation. The movement can be simultaneously tracked from many larvae arranged in multi-well plates. The resulting time-series locomotor data have been used to reveal new insights into neurobiology and pharmacology. However, the data are of large scale, and the corresponding locomotor behavior is affected by multiple factors. These issues pose a statistical challenge for comparing larval activities. To address this gap, this study has analyzed a visually-driven locomotor behaviour named the visual motor response (VMR) by the Hotelling's T-squared test. This test is congruent with comparing locomotor profiles from a time period. Different wild-type (WT) strains were compared using the test, which shows that they responded differently to light change at different developmental stages. The performance of this test was evaluated by a power analysis, which shows that the test was sensitive for detecting differences between experimental groups with sample numbers that were commonly used in various studies. In addition, this study investigated the effects of various factors that might affect the VMR by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results indicate that the larval activity was generally affected by stage, light stimulus, their interaction, and location in the plate. Nonetheless, different factors affected larval activity differently over time, as indicated by a dynamical analysis of the activity at each second. Intriguingly, this analysis also shows that biological and technical repeats had negligible effect on larval activity. This finding is consistent with that from the Hotelling's T-squared test, and suggests that experimental repeats can be combined to enhance statistical power. Together, these investigations have established a statistical framework for analyzing VMR data, a framework that should be generally applicable to other locomotor data with similar structure.

Statistical Analysis of Zebrafish Locomotor Response

PubMed Central

Zhang, Gaonan; Venkatraman, Prahatha; Brown, Skye Ashton; Pang, Chi-Pui; Zhang, Mingzhi; Ma, Ping; Leung, Yuk Fai

2015-01-01

Zebrafish larvae display rich locomotor behaviour upon external stimulation. The movement can be simultaneously tracked from many larvae arranged in multi-well plates. The resulting time-series locomotor data have been used to reveal new insights into neurobiology and pharmacology. However, the data are of large scale, and the corresponding locomotor behavior is affected by multiple factors. These issues pose a statistical challenge for comparing larval activities. To address this gap, this study has analyzed a visually-driven locomotor behaviour named the visual motor response (VMR) by the Hotelling’s T-squared test. This test is congruent with comparing locomotor profiles from a time period. Different wild-type (WT) strains were compared using the test, which shows that they responded differently to light change at different developmental stages. The performance of this test was evaluated by a power analysis, which shows that the test was sensitive for detecting differences between experimental groups with sample numbers that were commonly used in various studies. In addition, this study investigated the effects of various factors that might affect the VMR by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results indicate that the larval activity was generally affected by stage, light stimulus, their interaction, and location in the plate. Nonetheless, different factors affected larval activity differently over time, as indicated by a dynamical analysis of the activity at each second. Intriguingly, this analysis also shows that biological and technical repeats had negligible effect on larval activity. This finding is consistent with that from the Hotelling’s T-squared test, and suggests that experimental repeats can be combined to enhance statistical power. Together, these investigations have established a statistical framework for analyzing VMR data, a framework that should be generally applicable to other locomotor data with similar structure. PMID:26437184

Neural Correlates of Morphology Acquisition through a Statistical Learning Paradigm.

PubMed

Sandoval, Michelle; Patterson, Dianne; Dai, Huanping; Vance, Christopher J; Plante, Elena

2017-01-01

The neural basis of statistical learning as it occurs over time was explored with stimuli drawn from a natural language (Russian nouns). The input reflected the "rules" for marking categories of gendered nouns, without making participants explicitly aware of the nature of what they were to learn. Participants were scanned while listening to a series of gender-marked nouns during four sequential scans, and were tested for their learning immediately after each scan. Although participants were not told the nature of the learning task, they exhibited learning after their initial exposure to the stimuli. Independent component analysis of the brain data revealed five task-related sub-networks. Unlike prior statistical learning studies of word segmentation, this morphological learning task robustly activated the inferior frontal gyrus during the learning period. This region was represented in multiple independent components, suggesting it functions as a network hub for this type of learning. Moreover, the results suggest that subnetworks activated by statistical learning are driven by the nature of the input, rather than reflecting a general statistical learning system.

Neural Correlates of Morphology Acquisition through a Statistical Learning Paradigm

PubMed Central

Sandoval, Michelle; Patterson, Dianne; Dai, Huanping; Vance, Christopher J.; Plante, Elena

2017-01-01

The neural basis of statistical learning as it occurs over time was explored with stimuli drawn from a natural language (Russian nouns). The input reflected the “rules” for marking categories of gendered nouns, without making participants explicitly aware of the nature of what they were to learn. Participants were scanned while listening to a series of gender-marked nouns during four sequential scans, and were tested for their learning immediately after each scan. Although participants were not told the nature of the learning task, they exhibited learning after their initial exposure to the stimuli. Independent component analysis of the brain data revealed five task-related sub-networks. Unlike prior statistical learning studies of word segmentation, this morphological learning task robustly activated the inferior frontal gyrus during the learning period. This region was represented in multiple independent components, suggesting it functions as a network hub for this type of learning. Moreover, the results suggest that subnetworks activated by statistical learning are driven by the nature of the input, rather than reflecting a general statistical learning system. PMID:28798703

Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

2017-07-01

We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

Low-flow frequency and flow duration of selected South Carolina streams in the Broad River basin through March 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guimaraes, Wladmir B.; Feaster, Toby D.

2010-01-01

Of the 23 streamgaging stations for which recurrence interval computations were made, 14 had low-flow statistics that were published in previous U.S. Geological Survey reports. A comparison of the low-flow statistics for the minimum mean flow for a 7-consecutive-day period with a 10-year recurrence interval (7Q10) from this study with the most recently published values indicated that 8 of the 14 streamgaging stations had values that were within plus or minus 25 percent of the previous value. Ten of the 14 streamgaging stations had negative percent differences indicating the low-flow statistic had decreased since the previous study, and 4 streamgaging stations had positive percent differences indicating that the low-flow statistic had increased since the previous study. The low-flow statistics are influenced by length of record, hydrologic regime under which the record was collected, techniques used to do the analysis, and other changes, such as urbanization, diversions, and so on, that may have occurred in the basin.

Multivariate analysis for stormwater quality characteristics identification from different urban surface types in macau.

PubMed

Huang, J; Du, P; Ao, C; Ho, M; Lei, M; Zhao, D; Wang, Z

2007-12-01

Statistical analysis of stormwater runoff data enables general identification of runoff characteristics. Six catchments with different urban surface type including roofs, roadway, park, and residential/commercial in Macau were selected for sampling and study during the period from June 2005 to September 2006. Based on univariate statistical analysis of data sampled, major pollutants discharged from different urban surface type were identified. As for iron roof runoff, Zn is the most significant pollutant. The major pollutants from urban roadway runoff are TSS and COD. Stormwater runoff from commercial/residential and Park catchments show high level of COD, TN, and TP concentration. Principal component analysis was further done for identification of linkages between stormwater quality and urban surface types. Two potential pollution sources were identified for study catchments with different urban surface types. The first one is referred as nutrients losses, soil losses and organic pollutants discharges, the second is related to heavy metals losses. PCA was proved to be a viable tool to explain the type of pollution sources and its mechanism for different urban surface type catchments.

Quality Assessments of Long-Term Quantitative Proteomic Analysis of Breast Cancer Xenograft Tissues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Jian-Ying; Chen, Lijun; Zhang, Bai

The identification of protein biomarkers requires large-scale analysis of human specimens to achieve statistical significance. In this study, we evaluated the long-term reproducibility of an iTRAQ (isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification) based quantitative proteomics strategy using one channel for universal normalization across all samples. A total of 307 liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometric (LC-MS/MS) analyses were completed, generating 107 one-dimensional (1D) LC-MS/MS datasets and 8 offline two-dimensional (2D) LC-MS/MS datasets (25 fractions for each set) for human-in-mouse breast cancer xenograft tissues representative of basal and luminal subtypes. Such large-scale studies require the implementation of robust metrics to assessmore » the contributions of technical and biological variability in the qualitative and quantitative data. Accordingly, we developed a quantification confidence score based on the quality of each peptide-spectrum match (PSM) to remove quantification outliers from each analysis. After combining confidence score filtering and statistical analysis, reproducible protein identification and quantitative results were achieved from LC-MS/MS datasets collected over a 16 month period.« less

Statistical analysis of dynamic fibrils observed from NST/BBSO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan Priya, Thambaje; Su, Jiang-Tao; Chen, Jie; Deng, Yuan-Yong; Prasad Choudhury, Debi

2018-02-01

We present the results obtained from the analysis of dynamic fibrils in NOAA active region (AR) 12132, using high resolution Hα observations from the New Solar Telescope operating at Big Bear Solar Observatory. The dynamic fibrils are seen to be moving up and down, and most of these dynamic fibrils are periodic and have a jet-like appearance. We found from our observations that the fibrils follow almost perfect parabolic paths in many cases. A statistical analysis on the properties of the parabolic paths showing an analysis on deceleration, maximum velocity, duration and kinetic energy of these fibrils is presented here. We found the average maximum velocity to be around 15 kms‑1 and mean deceleration to be around 100 ms‑2. The observed deceleration appears to be a fraction of gravity of the Sun and is not compatible with the path of ballistic motion due to gravity of the Sun. We found a positive correlation between deceleration and maximum velocity. This correlation is consistent with simulations done earlier on magnetoacoustic shock waves propagating upward.

3D Analysis of Human Embryos and Fetuses Using Digitized Datasets From the Kyoto Collection.

PubMed

Takakuwa, Tetsuya

2018-06-01

Three-dimensional (3D) analysis of the human embryonic and early-fetal period has been performed using digitized datasets obtained from the Kyoto Collection, in which the digital datasets play a primary role in research. Datasets include magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) acquired with 1.5 T, 2.35 T, and 7 T magnet systems, phase-contrast X-ray computed tomography (CT), and digitized histological serial sections. Large, high-resolution datasets covering a broad range of developmental periods obtained with various methods of acquisition are key elements for the studies. The digital data have gross merits that enabled us to develop various analysis. Digital data analysis accelerated the speed of morphological observations using precise and improved methods by providing a suitable plane for a morphometric analysis from staged human embryos. Morphometric data are useful for quantitatively evaluating and demonstrating the features of development and for screening abnormal samples, which may be suggestive in the pathogenesis of congenital malformations. Morphometric data are also valuable for comparing sonographic data in a process known as "sonoembryology." The 3D coordinates of anatomical landmarks may be useful tools for analyzing the positional change of interesting landmarks and their relationships during development. Several dynamic events could be explained by differential growth using 3D coordinates. Moreover, 3D coordinates can be utilized in mathematical analysis as well as statistical analysis. The 3D analysis in our study may serve to provide accurate morphologic data, including the dynamics of embryonic structures related to developmental stages, which is required for insights into the dynamic and complex processes occurring during organogenesis. Anat Rec, 301:960-969, 2018. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of the water level on the flow topology over the Bolund island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuerva-Tejero, A.; Yeow, T. S.; Gallego-Castillo, C.; Lopez-Garcia, O.

2014-06-01

We have analyzed the influence of the actual height of Bolund island above water level on different full-scale statistics of the velocity field over the peninsula. Our analysis is focused on the database of 10-minute statistics provided by Risø-DTU for the Bolund Blind Experiment. We have considered 10-minut.e periods with near-neutral atmospheric conditions, mean wind speed values in the interval [5,20] m/s, and westerly wind directions. As expected, statistics such as speed-up, normalized increase of turbulent kinetic energy and probability of recirculating flow show a large dependence on the emerged height of the island for the locations close to the escarpment. For the published ensemble mean values of speed-up and normalized increase of turbulent kinetic energy in these locations, we propose that some ammount of uncertainty could be explained as a deterministic dependence of the flow field statistics upon the actual height of the Bolund island above the sea level.

Computer-aided auditing of prescription drug claims.

PubMed

Iyengar, Vijay S; Hermiz, Keith B; Natarajan, Ramesh

2014-09-01

We describe a methodology for identifying and ranking candidate audit targets from a database of prescription drug claims. The relevant audit targets may include various entities such as prescribers, patients and pharmacies, who exhibit certain statistical behavior indicative of potential fraud and abuse over the prescription claims during a specified period of interest. Our overall approach is consistent with related work in statistical methods for detection of fraud and abuse, but has a relative emphasis on three specific aspects: first, based on the assessment of domain experts, certain focus areas are selected and data elements pertinent to the audit analysis in each focus area are identified; second, specialized statistical models are developed to characterize the normalized baseline behavior in each focus area; and third, statistical hypothesis testing is used to identify entities that diverge significantly from their expected behavior according to the relevant baseline model. The application of this overall methodology to a prescription claims database from a large health plan is considered in detail.

Statistical polarization in greenhouse gas emissions: Theory and evidence.

PubMed

Remuzgo, Lorena; Trueba, Carmen

2017-11-01

The current debate on climate change is over whether global warming can be limited in order to lessen its impacts. In this sense, evidence of a decrease in the statistical polarization in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could encourage countries to establish a stronger multilateral climate change agreement. Based on the interregional and intraregional components of the multivariate generalised entropy measures (Maasoumi, 1986), Gigliarano and Mosler (2009) proposed to study the statistical polarization concept from a multivariate view. In this paper, we apply this approach to study the evolution of such phenomenon in the global distribution of the main GHGs. The empirical analysis has been carried out for the time period 1990-2011, considering an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981; Davies and Shorrocks, 1989). Most of the statistical polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern that was similar regardless of the number of groups considered. Finally, some policy implications are commented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical modeling of optical attenuation measurements in continental fog conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Muhammad Saeed; Amin, Muhammad; Awan, Muhammad Saleem; Minhas, Abid Ali; Saleem, Jawad; Khan, Rahimdad

2017-03-01

Free-space optics is an innovative technology that uses atmosphere as a propagation medium to provide higher data rates. These links are heavily affected by atmospheric channel mainly because of fog and clouds that act to scatter and even block the modulated beam of light from reaching the receiver end, hence imposing severe attenuation. A comprehensive statistical study of the fog effects and deep physical understanding of the fog phenomena are very important for suggesting improvements (reliability and efficiency) in such communication systems. In this regard, 6-months real-time measured fog attenuation data are considered and statistically investigated. A detailed statistical analysis related to each fog event for that period is presented; the best probability density functions are selected on the basis of Akaike information criterion, while the estimates of unknown parameters are computed by maximum likelihood estimation technique. The results show that most fog attenuation events follow normal mixture distribution and some follow the Weibull distribution.

Oscillating in synchrony with a metronome: serial dependence, limit cycle dynamics, and modeling.

PubMed

Torre, Kjerstin; Balasubramaniam, Ramesh; Delignières, Didier

2010-07-01

We analyzed serial dependencies in periods and asynchronies collected during oscillations performed in synchrony with a metronome. Results showed that asynchronies contain 1/f fluctuations, and the series of periods contain antipersistent dependence. The analysis of the phase portrait revealed a specific asymmetry induced by synchronization. We propose a hybrid limit cycle model including a cycle-dependent stiffness parameter provided with fractal properties, and a parametric driving function based on velocity. This model accounts for most experimentally evidenced statistical features, including serial dependence and limit cycle dynamics. We discuss the results and modeling choices within the framework of event-based and emergent timing.

Quasisecular cyclicity in the climate of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere and its possible relation to solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogurtsov, M. G.; Jungner, H.; Lindholm, M.; Helama, S.; Dergachev, V. A.

2009-12-01

Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period of 60-130 years) cyclicity, which is observed in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, has a bimodal structure, i.e., being composed of the 60-85 and 85-130 year periodicities. The possible relation of the quasisecular climatic rhythm to the corresponding Gleissberg solar cycle has been studied using the solar activity reconstructions performed with the help of the solar paleoastrophysics methods.

On the brain structure heterogeneity of autism: Parsing out acquisition site effects with significance-weighted principal component analysis.

PubMed

Martinez-Murcia, Francisco Jesús; Lai, Meng-Chuan; Górriz, Juan Manuel; Ramírez, Javier; Young, Adam M H; Deoni, Sean C L; Ecker, Christine; Lombardo, Michael V; Baron-Cohen, Simon; Murphy, Declan G M; Bullmore, Edward T; Suckling, John

2017-03-01

Neuroimaging studies have reported structural and physiological differences that could help understand the causes and development of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Many of them rely on multisite designs, with the recruitment of larger samples increasing statistical power. However, recent large-scale studies have put some findings into question, considering the results to be strongly dependent on the database used, and demonstrating the substantial heterogeneity within this clinically defined category. One major source of variance may be the acquisition of the data in multiple centres. In this work we analysed the differences found in the multisite, multi-modal neuroimaging database from the UK Medical Research Council Autism Imaging Multicentre Study (MRC AIMS) in terms of both diagnosis and acquisition sites. Since the dissimilarities between sites were higher than between diagnostic groups, we developed a technique called Significance Weighted Principal Component Analysis (SWPCA) to reduce the undesired intensity variance due to acquisition site and to increase the statistical power in detecting group differences. After eliminating site-related variance, statistically significant group differences were found, including Broca's area and the temporo-parietal junction. However, discriminative power was not sufficient to classify diagnostic groups, yielding accuracies results close to random. Our work supports recent claims that ASD is a highly heterogeneous condition that is difficult to globally characterize by neuroimaging, and therefore different (and more homogenous) subgroups should be defined to obtain a deeper understanding of ASD. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1208-1223, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating current and future streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, central and eastern Montana, with application to evaluating effects of climate change on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Chase, Katherine J.

2017-03-23

A common statistical procedure for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged locations is to develop a relational model between streamflow and drainage basin characteristics at gaged locations using least squares regression analysis; however, least squares regression methods are parametric and make constraining assumptions about the data distribution. The random forest regression method provides an alternative nonparametric method for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites and requires that the data meet fewer statistical conditions than least squares regression methods.Random forest regression analysis was used to develop predictive models for 89 streamflow characteristics using Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated streamflow data and drainage basin characteristics at 179 sites in central and eastern Montana. The predictive models were developed from streamflow data simulated for current (baseline, water years 1982–99) conditions and three future periods (water years 2021–38, 2046–63, and 2071–88) under three different climate-change scenarios. These predictive models were then used to predict streamflow characteristics for baseline conditions and three future periods at 1,707 fish sampling sites in central and eastern Montana. The average root mean square error for all predictive models was about 50 percent. When streamflow predictions at 23 fish sampling sites were compared to nearby locations with simulated data, the mean relative percent difference was about 43 percent. When predictions were compared to streamflow data recorded at 21 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations outside of the calibration basins, the average mean absolute percent error was about 73 percent.

Feasibility and effectiveness of a low cost campaign on antibiotic prescribing in Italy: community level, controlled, non-randomised trial.

PubMed

Formoso, Giulio; Paltrinieri, Barbara; Marata, Anna Maria; Gagliotti, Carlo; Pan, Angelo; Moro, Maria Luisa; Capelli, Oreste; Magrini, Nicola

2013-09-12

To test the hypothesis that a multifaceted, local public campaign could be feasible and influence antibiotic prescribing for outpatients. Community level, controlled, non-randomised trial. Provinces of Modena and Parma in Emilia-Romagna, northern Italy, November 2011 to February 2012. 1,150,000 residents of Modena and Parma (intervention group) and 3,250,000 residents in provinces in the same region but where no campaign had been implemented (control group). Campaign materials (mainly posters, brochures, and advertisements on local media, plus a newsletter on local antibiotic resistance targeted at doctors and pharmacists). General practitioners and paediatricians in the intervention area participated in designing the campaign messages. Primary outcome was the average change in prescribing rates of antibiotics for outpatient in five months, measured as defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants/day, using health districts as the unit of analysis. Antibiotic prescribing was reduced in the intervention area compared with control area (-4.3%, 95% confidence interval -7.1% to -1.5%). This result was robust to "sensitivity analysis" modifying the baseline period from two months (main analysis) to one month. A higher decrease was observed for penicillins resistant to β lactamase and a lower decrease for penicillins susceptible to β lactamase, consistent with the content of the newsletter on antibiotic resistance directed at health professionals. The decrease in expenditure on antibiotics was not statistically significant in a district level analysis with a two month baseline period (main analysis), but was statistically significant in sensitivity analyses using either a one month baseline period or a more powered doctor level analysis. Knowledge and attitudes of the target population about the correct use of antibiotics did not differ between the intervention and control areas. A local low cost information campaign targeted at citizens, combined with a newsletter on local antibiotic resistance targeted at doctors and pharmacists, was associated with significantly decreased total rates of antibiotic prescribing but did not affect the population's knowledge and attitudes about antibiotic resistance. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01604096.

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2016-04-13

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented.Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia.To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends.The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

Astrometric detectability of systems with unseen companions: effects of the Earth orbital motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butkevich, Alexey G.

2018-06-01

The astrometric detection of an unseen companion is based on an analysis of the apparent motion of its host star around the system's barycentre. Systems with an orbital period close to 1 yr may escape detection if the orbital motion of their host stars is observationally indistinguishable from the effects of parallax. Additionally, an astrometric solution may produce a biased parallax estimation for such systems. We examine the effects of the orbital motion of the Earth on astrometric detectability in terms of a correlation between the Earth's orbital position and the position of the star relative to its system barycentre. The χ2 statistic for parallax estimation is calculated analytically, leading to expressions that relate the decrease in detectability and accompanying parallax bias to the position correlation function. The impact of the Earth's motion critically depends on the exoplanet's orbital period, diminishing rapidly as the period deviates from 1 yr. Selection effects against 1-yr-period systems is, therefore, expected. Statistical estimation shows that the corresponding loss of sensitivity results in a typical 10 per cent increase in the detection threshold. Consideration of eccentric orbits shows that the Earth's motion has no effect on detectability for e≳ 0.5. The dependence of the detectability on other parameters, such as orbital phases and inclination of the orbital plane to the ecliptic, are smooth and monotonic because they are described by simple trigonometric functions.

Examining a possible association between human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination and migraine: results of a cohort study in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Schurink-Van't Klooster, T M; de Ridder, M A J; Kemmeren, J M; van der Lei, J; Dekker, F; Sturkenboom, M; de Melker, H E

2015-05-01

Since the introduction of the bivalent human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine in the Netherlands, migraine has been reported as a notable event in the passive safety surveillance system. Research on the association between HPV vaccination and migraine is needed. Therefore, potential migraine cases in 2008-2010 were selected from a group of general practitioners and linked to the vaccination registry. Data were analysed in three ways: (i) incidences of migraine postvaccination (2009/2010) were compared to pre-vaccination incidences (2008); (ii) in a cohort, incidence rates of migraine in vaccinated and unvaccinated girls were compared and (iii) in a self-controlled case series analysis, the relative incidence of migraine in potentially high-risk periods was compared to non-high-risk periods. Incidence rates of migraine for 12- to 16-year-old girls and boys postvaccination were slightly higher than pre-vaccination incidence rates. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for vaccinated compared to unvaccinated girls were not statistically significantly higher. Furthermore, the RR for migraine in the high-risk period of 6 weeks following each dose versus non-high-risk period was 4.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-26.6) for certain migraine. Using different methods, no statistically significant association between HPV vaccination and incident migraine was found. However, the number of cases was low; to definitively exclude the risk, an increased sample size is needed.

A weighted U-statistic for genetic association analyses of sequencing data.

PubMed

Wei, Changshuai; Li, Ming; He, Zihuai; Vsevolozhskaya, Olga; Schaid, Daniel J; Lu, Qing

2014-12-01

With advancements in next-generation sequencing technology, a massive amount of sequencing data is generated, which offers a great opportunity to comprehensively investigate the role of rare variants in the genetic etiology of complex diseases. Nevertheless, the high-dimensional sequencing data poses a great challenge for statistical analysis. The association analyses based on traditional statistical methods suffer substantial power loss because of the low frequency of genetic variants and the extremely high dimensionality of the data. We developed a Weighted U Sequencing test, referred to as WU-SEQ, for the high-dimensional association analysis of sequencing data. Based on a nonparametric U-statistic, WU-SEQ makes no assumption of the underlying disease model and phenotype distribution, and can be applied to a variety of phenotypes. Through simulation studies and an empirical study, we showed that WU-SEQ outperformed a commonly used sequence kernel association test (SKAT) method when the underlying assumptions were violated (e.g., the phenotype followed a heavy-tailed distribution). Even when the assumptions were satisfied, WU-SEQ still attained comparable performance to SKAT. Finally, we applied WU-SEQ to sequencing data from the Dallas Heart Study (DHS), and detected an association between ANGPTL 4 and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

The effects of compensatory workplace exercises to reduce work-related stress and musculoskeletal pain1

PubMed Central

de Freitas-Swerts, Fabiana Cristina Taubert; Robazzi, Maria Lúcia do Carmo Cruz

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: to assess the effect of a compensatory workplace exercise program on workers with the purpose of reducing work-related stress and musculoskeletal pain. METHOD: quasi-experimental research with quantitative analysis of the data, involving 30 administrative workers from a Higher Education Public Institution. For data collection, questionnaires were used to characterize the workers, as well as the Workplace Stress Scale and the Corlett Diagram. The research took place in three stages: first: pre-test with the application of the questionnaires to the subjects; second: Workplace Exercise taking place twice a week, for 15 minutes, during a period of 10 weeks; third: post-test in which the subjects answered the questionnaires again. For data analysis, the descriptive statistics and non-parametric statistics were used through the Wilcoxon Test. RESULTS: work-related stress was present in the assessed workers, but there was no statistically significant reduction in the scores after undergoing Workplace Exercise. However, there was a statistically significant pain reduction in the neck, cervical, upper, middle and lower back, right thigh, left leg, right ankle and feet. CONCLUSION: the Workplace Exercise promoted a significant pain reduction in the spine, but did not result in a significant reduction in the levels of work-related stress. PMID:25296147

Effects of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age on the hydrology of Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markonis, Y.; Kossieris, P.; Lykou, A.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2012-04-01

Medieval Warm Period (950 - 1250) and Little Ice Age (1450 - 1850) are the most recent periods that reflect the magnitude of natural climate variability. As their names suggest, the first one was characterized by higher temperatures and a generally moister climate, while the opposite happened during the second period. Although their existence is well documented for Northern Europe and North America, recent findings suggest strong evidence in lower latitudes as well. Here we analyze qualitatively the influence of these climatic fluctuations on the hydrological cycle all over the Mediterranean basin, highlighting the spatial characteristics of precipitation and runoff. We use both qualitative estimates from literature review in the field of paleoclimatology and statistical analysis of proxy data series. We investigate possible regional patterns and possible tele-connections with large scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Siberian High, African Sahel Rainfall and Indian Monsoon.

Satellite temperature monitoring and prediction system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, U. R.; Martsolf, J. D.; Crosby, F. L.

1980-01-01

The paper describes the Florida Satellite Freeze Forecast System (SFFS) in its current state. All data collection options have been demonstrated, and data collected over a three year period have been stored for future analysis. Presently, specific minimum temperature forecasts are issued routinely from November through March. The procedures for issuing these forecast are discussed. The automated data acquisition and processing system is described, and the physical and statistical models employed are examined.

Calculation of evapotranspiration using color-infrared photography. [remote sensing in Arizona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, J. E.

1977-01-01

Data from 38 color-infrared photographic missions flown during a five year period over the Gila River Phreatophyte Project in southeastern Arizona were analyzed to determine the possibility of identifying and measuring vegetative parameters and their associated hydrologic variables by spectral analysis of the photographs. The derived spectra equations are discussed, and a table of 24 statistical parameters describing the spectral and hydrologic variables is included.

Temporal expression profiling of plasma proteins reveals oxidative stress in early stages of Type 1 Diabetes progression

DOE PAGES

Liu, Chih-Wei; Bramer, Lisa; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo; ...

2017-10-07

We report that blood markers other than islet autoantibodies are greatly needed to indicate the pancreatic beta cell destruction process as early as possible, and more accurately reflect the progression of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1D). To this end, a longitudinal proteomic profiling of human plasma using TMT-10plex-based LC-MS/MS analysis was performed to track temporal proteomic changes of T1D patients (n = 11) across 9 serial time points, spanning the period of T1D natural progression, in comparison with those of the matching healthy controls (n = 10). To our knowledge, the current study represents the largest (> 2000 proteins measured)more » longitudinal expression profiles of human plasma proteome in T1D research. By applying statistical trend analysis on the temporal expression patterns between T1D and controls, and Benjamini-Hochberg procedure for multiple-testing correction, 13 protein groups were regarded as having statistically significant differences during the entire follow-up period. Moreover, 16 protein groups, which play pivotal roles in response to oxidative stress, have consistently abnormal expression trend before seroconversion to islet autoimmunity. Importantly, the expression trends of two key reactive oxygen species-decomposing enzymes, Catalase and Superoxide dismutase were verified independently by ELISA.« less

Temporal expression profiling of plasma proteins reveals oxidative stress in early stages of Type 1 Diabetes progression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Chih-Wei; Bramer, Lisa; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo

We report that blood markers other than islet autoantibodies are greatly needed to indicate the pancreatic beta cell destruction process as early as possible, and more accurately reflect the progression of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1D). To this end, a longitudinal proteomic profiling of human plasma using TMT-10plex-based LC-MS/MS analysis was performed to track temporal proteomic changes of T1D patients (n = 11) across 9 serial time points, spanning the period of T1D natural progression, in comparison with those of the matching healthy controls (n = 10). To our knowledge, the current study represents the largest (> 2000 proteins measured)more » longitudinal expression profiles of human plasma proteome in T1D research. By applying statistical trend analysis on the temporal expression patterns between T1D and controls, and Benjamini-Hochberg procedure for multiple-testing correction, 13 protein groups were regarded as having statistically significant differences during the entire follow-up period. Moreover, 16 protein groups, which play pivotal roles in response to oxidative stress, have consistently abnormal expression trend before seroconversion to islet autoimmunity. Importantly, the expression trends of two key reactive oxygen species-decomposing enzymes, Catalase and Superoxide dismutase were verified independently by ELISA.« less

climwin: An R Toolbox for Climate Window Analysis.

PubMed

Bailey, Liam D; van de Pol, Martijn

2016-01-01

When studying the impacts of climate change, there is a tendency to select climate data from a small set of arbitrary time periods or climate windows (e.g., spring temperature). However, these arbitrary windows may not encompass the strongest periods of climatic sensitivity and may lead to erroneous biological interpretations. Therefore, there is a need to consider a wider range of climate windows to better predict the impacts of future climate change. We introduce the R package climwin that provides a number of methods to test the effect of different climate windows on a chosen response variable and compare these windows to identify potential climate signals. climwin extracts the relevant data for each possible climate window and uses this data to fit a statistical model, the structure of which is chosen by the user. Models are then compared using an information criteria approach. This allows users to determine how well each window explains variation in the response variable and compare model support between windows. climwin also contains methods to detect type I and II errors, which are often a problem with this type of exploratory analysis. This article presents the statistical framework and technical details behind the climwin package and demonstrates the applicability of the method with a number of worked examples.

Preliminary study of inphase gusts and moment force wind loads over the first 150 meters at KSC, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, J. W.

1985-01-01

A mathematical/statistical analysis of inphase gusts and wind velocity moment forces over the first 150 m at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is presented. The wind velocity profile data were acquired at the KSC 150 m ground wind tower. The results show that planetary boundary layer (PBL) winds can sustain near peak speeds for periods up to 60 sec and longer. This is proven from calculating the autocorrelation functions of moment forces for several 10 min cases of wind profile data. The results show that lower atmospheric planetary boundary layer winds have periodic variations for long periods of time. This flow characteristic is valuable as aerospace vehicle engineering and design criteria where wind loading must be determined.

Search for Optical Pulsation in M82 X-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collura, G.; Strader, P.; Meeker, S. R.; Szypryt, P.; Walter, A. B.; Bockstiegel, C.; Mazin, B. A.; Prince, T. A.

2017-11-01

We report on a search for optical pulsation from M82 X-2 over a range of periods. M82 X-2 is an X-ray pulsar with a 1.37s average spin period and a 2.5 day sinusoidal modulation. The observations were done with the ARray Camera for Optical to Near-IR Spectrophotometry at the 200 inch Hale telescope at the Palomar Observatory. We performed H test and χ 2 statistical analysis. No significant optical pulsations were found in the wavelength range of 3000-11000 Å with a pulsation period between 1.36262 and 1.37462 s. We found an upper limit on pulsed emission in the 4000-8000 Å wavelength range to be fainter than ˜20.5 mag AB , corresponding to ˜23 μJy.

Meta-analysis of the effects of prokinetic agents in patients with functional dyspepsia.

PubMed

Hiyama, Toru; Yoshihara, Masaharu; Matsuo, Keitaro; Kusunoki, Hiroaki; Kamada, Tomoari; Ito, Masanori; Tanaka, Shinji; Nishi, Nobuo; Chayama, Kazuaki; Haruma, Ken

2007-03-01

Functional dyspepsia (FD) is often treated with prokinetic agents; however, the efficacy of prokinetic agents in patients with FD has been questioned recently. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis of the effects of prokinetic agents in patients with FD. Prokinetic agents, including metoclopramide, domperidone, trimebutine, cisapride, itopride and mosapride, used for treatment of FD between 1951 and 2005 were identified. Twenty-seven studies were selected. Difference in the probability of response between the interventional drug and placebo was used as a summary statistic for the treatment effect. Meta-regression analysis was used to detect sources of heterogeneity. In total, 1844 subjects were assigned to an experimental arm, and 1591 subjects were assigned to a placebo arm. Publication bias was ruled out by funnel plot and statistical testing (P = 0.975). In the overall analysis, the summary statistic was 0.295 (95% confidence interval: 0.208-0.382, P < 0.001), indicating that the interventional drug has 30% excess probability of producing a response compared with placebo. The most significant source of heterogeneity was the year of publication (P < 0.001). The data clearly indicate that prokinetic agents are significantly more effective than placebo in the treatment of FD. Although FD is a chronic condition, efficacy was assessed over short periods. Long-term randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm the effect.

Physical restraints in an Italian psychiatric ward: clinical reasons and staff organization problems.

PubMed

Di Lorenzo, Rosaria; Baraldi, Sara; Ferrara, Maria; Mimmi, Stefano; Rigatelli, Marco

2012-04-01

To analyze physical restraint use in an Italian acute psychiatric ward, where mechanical restraint by belt is highly discouraged but allowed. Data were retrospectively collected from medical and nursing charts, from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2008. Physical restraint rate and relationships between restraints and selected variables were statistically analyzed. Restraints were statistically significantly more frequent in compulsory or voluntary admissions of patients with an altered state of consciousness, at night, to control aggressive behavior, and in patients with "Schizophrenia and other Psychotic Disorders" during the first 72 hr of hospitalization. Analysis of clinical and organizational factors conditioning restraints may limit its use. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Experimental assessment of the spatial variability of porosity, permeability and sorption isotherms in an ordinary building concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issaadi, N.; Hamami, A. A.; Belarbi, R.; Aït-Mokhtar, A.

2017-10-01

In this paper, spatial variabilities of some transfer and storage properties of a concrete wall were assessed. The studied parameters deal with water porosity, water vapor permeability, intrinsic permeability and water vapor sorption isotherms. For this purpose, a concrete wall was built in the laboratory and specimens were periodically taken and tested. The obtained results allow highlighting a statistical estimation of the mean value, the standard deviation and the spatial correlation length of the studied fields for each parameter. These results were discussed and a statistical analysis was performed in order to assess for each of these parameters the appropriate probability density function.

Evaluation of calcium ion, hydroxyl ion release and pH levels in various calcium hydroxide based intracanal medicaments: An in vitro study

PubMed Central

Fulzele, Punit; Baliga, Sudhindra; Thosar, Nilima; Pradhan, Debaprya

2011-01-01

Aims: Evaluation of calcium ion and hydroxyl ion release and pH levels in various calcium hydroxide based intracanal medicaments. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate calcium and hydroxyl ion release and pH levels of calcium hydroxide based products, namely, RC Cal, Metapex, calcium hydroxide with distilled water, along with the new gutta-percha points with calcium hydroxide. Materials and Methods: The materials were inserted in polyethylene tubes and immersed in deionized water. The pH variation, Ca++ and OH- release were monitored periodically for 1 week. Statistical Analysis Used: Statistical analysis was carried out using one-way analysis of variance and Tukey's post hoc tests with PASW Statistics version 18 software to compare the statistical difference. Results: After 1 week, calcium hydroxide with distilled water and RC Cal raised the pH to 12.7 and 11.8, respectively, while a small change was observed for Metapex, calcium hydroxide gutta-percha points. The calcium released after 1 week was 15.36 mg/dL from RC Cal, followed by 13.04, 1.296, 3.064 mg/dL from calcium hydroxide with sterile water, Metapex and calcium hydroxide gutta-percha points, respectively. Conclusions: Calcium hydroxide with sterile water and RC Cal pastes liberate significantly more calcium and hydroxyl ions and raise the pH higher than Metapex and calcium hydroxidegutta-percha points. PMID:22346155

Significant calendar period deviations in testicular germ cell tumors indicate that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

PubMed

Speaks, Crystal; McGlynn, Katherine A; Cook, Michael B

2012-10-01

The current working model of type II testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) pathogenesis states that carcinoma in situ arises during embryogenesis, is a necessary precursor, and always progresses to cancer. An implicit condition of this model is that only in utero exposures affect the development of TGCT in later life. In an age-period-cohort analysis, this working model contends an absence of calendar period deviations. We tested this contention using data from the SEER registries of the United States. We assessed age-period-cohort models of TGCTs, seminomas, and nonseminomas for the period 1973-2008. Analyses were restricted to whites diagnosed at ages 15-74 years. We tested whether calendar period deviations were significant in TGCT incidence trends adjusted for age deviations and cohort effects. This analysis included 32,250 TGCTs (18,475 seminomas and 13,775 nonseminomas). Seminoma incidence trends have increased with an average annual percentage change in log-linear rates (net drift) of 1.25 %, relative to just 0.14 % for nonseminoma. In more recent time periods, TGCT incidence trends have plateaued and then undergone a slight decrease. Calendar period deviations were highly statistically significant in models of TGCT (p = 1.24(-9)) and seminoma (p = 3.99(-14)), after adjustment for age deviations and cohort effects; results for nonseminoma (p = 0.02) indicated that the effects of calendar period were much more muted. Calendar period deviations play a significant role in incidence trends of TGCT, which indicates that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

Analysis strategies for longitudinal attachment loss data.

PubMed

Beck, J D; Elter, J R

2000-02-01

The purpose of this invited review is to describe and discuss methods currently in use to quantify the progression of attachment loss in epidemiological studies of periodontal disease, and to make recommendations for specific analytic methods based upon the particular design of the study and structure of the data. The review concentrates on the definition of incident attachment loss (ALOSS) and its component parts; measurement issues including thresholds and regression to the mean; methods of accounting for longitudinal change, including changes in means, changes in proportions of affected sites, incidence density, the effect of tooth loss and reversals, and repeated events; statistical models of longitudinal change, including the incorporation of the time element, use of linear, logistic or Poisson regression or survival analysis, and statistical tests; site vs person level of analysis, including statistical adjustment for correlated data; the strengths and limitations of ALOSS data. Examples from the Piedmont 65+ Dental Study are used to illustrate specific concepts. We conclude that incidence density is the preferred methodology to use for periodontal studies with more than one period of follow-up and that the use of studies not employing methods for dealing with complex samples, correlated data, and repeated measures does not take advantage of our current understanding of the site- and person-level variables important in periodontal disease and may generate biased results.

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events 1997-2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Nancy Ellen; Schroeder, John Alton

2016-07-01

Loss of offsite power (LOOP) can have a major negative impact on a power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience during calendar years 1997 through 2015. LOOP events during critical operation that do not result in a reactor trip, are not included. Frequencies and durations weremore » determined for four event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather-related. Emergency diesel generator reliability is also considered (failure to start, failure to load and run, and failure to run more than 1 hour). There is an adverse trend in LOOP durations. The previously reported adverse trend in LOOP frequency was not statistically significant for 2006-2015. Grid-related LOOPs happen predominantly in the summer. Switchyard-centered LOOPs happen predominantly in winter and spring. Plant-centered and weather-related LOOPs do not show statistically significant seasonality. The engineering analysis of LOOP data shows that human errors have been much less frequent since 1997 than in the 1986 -1996 time period.« less

A change in humidification system can eliminate endotracheal tube occlusion.

PubMed

Doyle, Alex; Joshi, Manasi; Frank, Peter; Craven, Thomas; Moondi, Parvez; Young, Peter

2011-12-01

Inadequate airway humidification can result in endotracheal tube occlusion. There is evidence that heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs) are more prone to endotracheal tube occlusion than heated humidifiers (HHs) that contain a heated wire circuit. We aimed to compare the incidence of endotracheal tube occlusion while introducing a new dual-heated wire circuit HH in place of an established hydrophobic HME. This was a prospective observational study. All patients who required intubation were included in our analysis. Univariate statistical analysis was performed using a Fisher exact test. P < .05 was considered statistically significant. There were 158 patients in the HME group and 88 patients in the HH group. The incidence of endotracheal tube occlusion was 5.7% in the HME group and 0% in the HH group. Statistical analysis revealed a significant difference between the 2 groups (P = .02). In light of this finding, we changed our practice to provide humidification exclusively by HH. In the subsequent 18-month period, there were no further episodes of endotracheal tube occlusion. Our study demonstrates that there is a significant increase in the incidence of endotracheal tube occlusion when using a hydrophobic HME compared with an HH and that using a dual-heated wire circuit HH can eliminate endotracheal tube occlusion. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Elementary Algorithm for Autonomous Air Terminal Merging and Interval Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.

2017-01-01

A central element of air traffic management is the safe merging and spacing of aircraft during the terminal area flight phase. This paper derives and examines an algorithm for the merging and interval managing problem for Standard Terminal Arrival Routes. It describes a factor analysis for performance based on the distribution of arrivals, the operating period of the terminal, and the topology of the arrival routes; then presents results from a performance analysis and from a safety analysis for a realistic topology based on typical routes for a runway at Phoenix International Airport. The heart of the safety analysis is a statistical derivation on how to conduct a safety analysis for a local simulation when the safety requirement is given for the entire airspace.

CSI 2264: Investigating rotation and its connection with disk accretion in the young open cluster NGC 2264

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venuti, L.; Bouvier, J.; Cody, A. M.; Stauffer, J. R.; Micela, G.; Rebull, L. M.; Alencar, S. H. P.; Sousa, A. P.; Hillenbrand, L. A.; Flaccomio, E.

2017-03-01

Context. The low spin rates measured for solar-type stars at an age of a few Myr ( 10% of the break-up velocity) indicate that some mechanism of angular momentum regulation must be at play in the early pre-main sequence. This may be associated with magnetospheric accretion and star-disk interaction, as suggested by observations that disk-bearing objects (CTTS) are slower rotators than diskless sources (WTTS) in young star clusters. Aims: We characterize the rotation properties for members of the star-forming region NGC 2264 ( 3 Myr) as a function of mass, and investigate the accretion-rotation connection at an age where about 50% of the stars have already lost their disks. Methods: We examined a sample of 500 cluster members (40% with disks, 60% without disks), distributed in mass between 0.15 and 2 M⊙, whose photometric variations were monitored in the optical for 38 consecutive days with the CoRoT space observatory. Light curves were analyzed for periodicity using three different techniques: the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, the autocorrelation function and the string-length method. Periods were searched in the range between 0.17 days (I.e., 4 h, twice the data sampling adopted) and 19 days (half the total time span). Period detections were confirmed using a variety of statistical tools (false alarm probability, Q-statistics), as well as visual inspection of the direct and phase-folded light curves. Results: About 62% of sources in our sample were found to be periodic; the period detection rate is 70% among WTTS and 58% among CTTS. The vast majority of periodic sources exhibit rotational periods shorter than 13 d. The period distribution obtained for the cluster consists of a smooth distribution centered around P = 5.2 d with two peaks, located respectively at P = 1-2 d and at P = 3-4 d. A separate analysis of the rotation properties for CTTS and WTTS indicates that the P = 1-2 d peak is associated with the latter, while both groups contribute to the P = 3-4 d peak. The comparison between CTTS and WTTS supports the idea of a rotation-accretion connection: their respective rotational properties are statistically different, and CTTS rotate on average more slowly than WTTS. We also observe that CTTS with the strongest signatures of accretion (largest UV flux excesses) tend to exhibit slow rotation rates; a clear dearth of fast rotators with strong accretion signatures emerges from our sample. This connection between rotation properties and accretion traced via UV excess measurements is consistent with earlier findings, revealed by IR excess measurements, that fast rotators in young star clusters are typically devoid of dusty disks. On the other hand, WTTS span the whole range of rotation periods detected across the cluster. We also investigated whether the rotation properties we measure for NGC 2264 members show any dependence on stellar mass or on stellar inner structure (radiative core mass to total mass ratio). No statistically significant correlation emerged from our analysis regarding the second issue; however, we did infer some evidence of a period-mass trend, lower-mass stars spinning on average faster than higher-mass stars, although our data did not allow us to assess the statistical significance of such a trend beyond the 10% level. Conclusions: This study confirms that disks impact the rotational properties of young stars and influence their rotational evolution. The idea of disk-locking, recently tested in numerical models of the rotational evolution of young stars between 1 and 12 Myr, may be consistent with the pictures of rotation and rotation-accretion connection that we observe for the NGC 2264 cluster. However, the origin of the several substructures that we observe in the period distribution, notably the multiple peaks, deserves further investigation. Based on observations obtained with the CoRoT space telescope, and with the wide-field imager MegaCam at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT).Table F.1 is also available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/599/A23

[Period-tripling in Multiscale Physical and Biological Events].

PubMed

Bondar, A T; Fedorov, M V; Kolombet, V A

2015-01-01

A recent paper by S.J. Puetz et al. (Chaos, Solitons -& Fractals, v. 62-63, p. 55, 2014) described a fundamental period-tripled model. It involves periods of different astronomical (quasars, Sun), geophysical (geomagnetic, climatic, volcanic) and some biological processes. This work contains statistics for sixteen pairs of a period-tripled sequence. These periods range from -50 years to 1.5 billion years and no signs of the timescale limitations are found. We believe that the universal scope of the fundamental period-tripled model can be used for the development of new methodology of research data analysis: the main idea is that the spectrum of the periods of the studied event should be tested for the similarity with the spectrum of fundamental period-tripling pattern (because of the fundamental nature of the period-tripled model). Using this method, in this study we complement an already described period-tripled model with periods of human memory performance ranging from one minute to one month also adding seven relevant periods/frequencies of the period-tripled model in the range of human hearing. We make a conclusion that these characteristic frequencies may form the basis for music and singing phenomena. The new methodology is particularly appropriate for being applied in medicine and engineering.

Association between summer temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children: An ecological analysis.

PubMed

Yokoya, Masana; Higuchi, Yukito

2016-11-01

Several experimental studies reported evidence of a negative energy balance at higher temperatures. However, corresponding weight loss has not been noted in clinical practice. This study investigated the geographical association between outdoor temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. An ecological analysis was conducted using prefecture-level data on the mean body weight of Japanese adolescents and children over a 25-year period and Japanese mesh (regional) climatic data on the mean annual temperature, mean daily maximum temperature in August, and mean daily minimum temperature in January were also analyzed. Correlation analysis uncovered a stronger association between weight and the mean daily maximum temperature in August than with other climatic variables. Moreover, multiple regression analysis indicated that height and the mean daily maximum temperature in August were statistically significant predictors of weight. This suggests that geographical differences in weight in Japanese adolescents and children can be explained by the complementary relationship between height-associated weight gain and weight loss caused by summer heat. Summer temperatures may reduce the proportion of children who are overweight and contribute to geographical differences in body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:789-795, 2016. © 2016Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Occurrence and source apportionment of Per- and poly-fluorinated compounds (PFCs) in North Canal Basin, Beijing

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yi-Zhe; Wang, Bin; Wang, Wei; Li, Wen-Chao; Huang, Jun; Deng, Shu-Bo; Wang, Yu-Jue; Yu, Gang

2016-01-01

Various per- and poly-fluorinated compounds (PFCs) were first systematically investigated in North Canal Basin, Beijing, China. A total of 68 surface water samples were collected from North Canal Basin, Beijing, at high spatial resolution. The seasonal disparity was compared and associated with source variation. PFCs concentrations in low-water period ranged from 26 to 207 ng/L, and significantly declined levels were found in high-water period. The individual component proportions among different sites varied less in high-water period, when runoff played a role in mixing and diluting PFCs. A methodology combined with principal component analysis (PCA), heat map-hierarchical cluster analysis (HM-HCA), and correlation analysis were introduced to discriminate sources of PFCs in surface water. The statistical results agreed with each other, and daily domestic consumption, fire-fighting products and related industries were identified as sources of PFCs in this region. In addition, two composition ratios were proposed through the methodology to distinguish the impact of nonpoint source, and the outcome demonstrates that great disparities exist in compositional profiles between nonpoint source and others. Overall, the results showed that this comprehensive analysis method has great potential for source apportionment in surface water and other environmental compartments. PMID:27845351

A Meta-Analysis and an Evaluation of Trends in Obesity Prevalence among Children and Adolescents in Turkey: 1990 through 2015

PubMed Central

Alper, Züleyha; Ercan, İlker; Uncu, Yeşim

2018-01-01

Objective Obesity in childhood and adolescence is one of the most serious public health problems due to a remarkable increase in prevalence in recent years and its close relationship with non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension, resulting in increased adult morbidity and mortality. This study aims to quantify the secular trend in different regions of Turkey from 1990 to 2015 by performing a meta-analysis of childhood and adolescent obesity prevalence studies conducted. Methods Uludag University Library Database was searched for relevant articles published prior to March 2017. The heterogeneity of the studies in the meta-analysis was tested by the I2 statistic and Cochran’s Q test. The obesity trend analyses were examined by chi-square trend analysis with respect to five year periods. The statistical significance level was taken as α=0.05. Results A total of 76 papers were initially identified addressing childhood and adolescent obesity in Turkey. Fifty-eight papers were selected for analysis. The prevalence of obesity increased from 0.6% to 7.3% with an 11.6-fold increase between the periods 1990-1995 to 2011-2015. The prevalence of obesity increased in both genders. However, boys were more likely to be obese than girls. Conclusion Studies on obesity prevalence in the 5-19 age group in Turkey have gained importance, especially in the 2000s. While a remarkable number of prevalence studies, mostly regional, have been conducted between 2005-2011, a gradual decline was observed thereafter. Further national and population-based surveys on prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents are definitely needed in Turkey. PMID:28901943

A Meta-Analysis and an Evaluation of Trends in Obesity Prevalence among Children and Adolescents in Turkey: 1990 through 2015.

PubMed

Alper, Züleyha; Ercan, İlker; Uncu, Yeşim

2018-03-01

Obesity in childhood and adolescence is one of the most serious public health problems due to a remarkable increase in prevalence in recent years and its close relationship with non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension, resulting in increased adult morbidity and mortality. This study aims to quantify the secular trend in different regions of Turkey from 1990 to 2015 by performing a meta-analysis of childhood and adolescent obesity prevalence studies conducted. Uludag University Library Database was searched for relevant articles published prior to March 2017. The heterogeneity of the studies in the meta-analysis was tested by the I2 statistic and Cochran's Q test. The obesity trend analyses were examined by chi-square trend analysis with respect to five year periods. The statistical significance level was taken as α=0.05. A total of 76 papers were initially identified addressing childhood and adolescent obesity in Turkey. Fifty-eight papers were selected for analysis. The prevalence of obesity increased from 0.6% to 7.3% with an 11.6-fold increase between the periods 1990-1995 to 2011-2015. The prevalence of obesity increased in both genders. However, boys were more likely to be obese than girls. Studies on obesity prevalence in the 5-19 age group in Turkey have gained importance, especially in the 2000s. While a remarkable number of prevalence studies, mostly regional, have been conducted between 2005-2011, a gradual decline was observed thereafter. Further national and population-based surveys on prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents are definitely needed in Turkey.

Periodic benefit-risk assessment using Bayesian stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Kan; Yuan, Shuai Sammy; Wang, William; Wan, Shuyan Sabrina; Ceesay, Paulette; Heyse, Joseph F.; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Luo, Sheng

2018-01-01

Benefit-risk (BR) assessment is essential to ensure the best decisions are made for a medical product in the clinical development process, regulatory marketing authorization, post-market surveillance, and coverage and reimbursement decisions. One challenge of BR assessment in practice is that the benefit and risk profile may keep evolving while new evidence is accumulating. Regulators and the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) recommend performing periodic benefit-risk evaluation report (PBRER) through the product's lifecycle. In this paper, we propose a general statistical framework for periodic benefit-risk assessment, in which Bayesian meta-analysis and stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) will be combined to synthesize the accumulating evidence. The proposed approach allows us to compare the acceptability of different drugs dynamically and effectively and accounts for the uncertainty of clinical measurements and imprecise or incomplete preference information of decision makers. We apply our approaches to two real examples in a post-hoc way for illustration purpose. The proposed method may easily be modified for other pre and post market settings, and thus be an important complement to the current structured benefit-risk assessment (sBRA) framework to improve the transparent and consistency of the decision-making process. PMID:29505866

Hazard function analysis for flood planning under nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-05-01

The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) involves a probabilistic assessment of the "time to failure" or "return period," T, of an event of interest. HFA is used in epidemiology, manufacturing, medicine, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. For a stationary process, the probability distribution function (pdf) of the return period always follows an exponential distribution, the same is not true for nonstationary processes. When the process of interest, X, exhibits nonstationary behavior, HFA can provide a complementary approach to risk analysis with analytical tools particularly useful for hydrological applications. After a general introduction to HFA, we describe a new mathematical linkage between the magnitude of the flood event, X, and its return period, T, for nonstationary processes. We derive the probabilistic properties of T for a nonstationary one-parameter exponential model of X, and then use both Monte-Carlo simulation and HFA to generalize the behavior of T when X arises from a nonstationary two-parameter lognormal distribution. For this case, our findings suggest that a two-parameter Weibull distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the pdf of T. We document how HFA can provide an alternative approach to characterize the probabilistic properties of both nonstationary flood series and the resulting pdf of T.

Wavelet analysis of frequency chaos game signal: a time-frequency signature of the C. elegans DNA.

PubMed

Messaoudi, Imen; Oueslati, Afef Elloumi; Lachiri, Zied

2014-12-01

Challenging tasks are encountered in the field of bioinformatics. The choice of the genomic sequence's mapping technique is one the most fastidious tasks. It shows that a judicious choice would serve in examining periodic patterns distribution that concord with the underlying structure of genomes. Despite that, searching for a coding technique that can highlight all the information contained in the DNA has not yet attracted the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a new mapping technique based on the chaos game theory that we call the frequency chaos game signal (FCGS). The particularity of the FCGS coding resides in exploiting the statistical properties of the genomic sequence itself. This may reflect important structural and organizational features of DNA. To prove the usefulness of the FCGS approach in the detection of different local periodic patterns, we use the wavelet analysis because it provides access to information that can be obscured by other time-frequency methods such as the Fourier analysis. Thus, we apply the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) with the complex Morlet wavelet as a mother wavelet function. Scalograms that relate to the organism Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) exhibit a multitude of periodic organization of specific DNA sequences.

Prediction possibilities of Arosa total ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

1987-01-01

Using the periodicities obtained by a Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) of the Arosa total ozone data ( CC') series for 1932 1971, the values predicted for 1972 onwards were compared with the observed values of the ( AD) series. A change of level was noticed, with the observed ( AD) values lower by about 7 D.U. Also, the matching was poor in 1980, 1981, 1982. In the monthly values, the most prominent periodicity was the annual wave, comprising some 80% variance. In the 12 month running averages, the annual wave was eliminated and the most prominent periodicity was T=3.7 years, encompassing roundly 20% variance. This and other periodicities at T=4.7, 5.4, 6.2, 10 and 16 years were all statistically significant at a 3.5δ a priori i.e., 2δ a posteriori level. However, the predictions from these were unsatisfactory, probably because some of these periodicities may be transient i.e., changing amplitudes and/or phases with time. Thus, no meaningful prediction seem possible for Arosa total ozone.

Evidence for Nemesis: a solar companion star

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muller, R.A.

1985-01-01

The evidence that the sun has a companion star ''Nemesis'' responsible for periodic mass extinctions is reviewed. A gaussian ideogram of the rates of family extinctions in the oceans shows periods of 26 and 30 Myr. Analysis of impact cratering on the earth shows a period of either 28.4 or 30 Myr, depending on the crater selection. Models which attempt to explain these periods with either oscillations through the galactic plane, or through the effects of a tenth planet, are seriously flawed. If the periods seen in the data are real (and not a spurious result of a statistical fluctuation)more » then the ''Nemesis hypothesis'' is the only suggested explanation that has survived close scrutiny. The Nemesis model predicts that the impacts took place during brief storms of several million years duration, perhaps accounting for the ''extended'' nature of the mass extinctions. A search for Nemesis is under way at Berkeley. 18 refs., 4 figs.« less

Analysis of mortality from suicide in children, adolescents and youth. Argentina, 2005-2007.

PubMed

Bella, Mónica E; Acosta, Laura; Villacé, Belén; López de Neira, María; Enders, Julio; Fernández, Ruth

2013-01-01

To analyze mortality from suicide in children, adolescents and youth aged 5 to 24 years by gender, method used, place where the incident occurred and residence (province) in Argentina over the period 2005-2007. Data of Statistical Death Reports were used. Mortality rates from suicide were estimated per 100 000 inhabitants using ICD-10 (X60- X84). The statistical method included categorical data analysis. Total deaths from suicide in the 5 to 24 year old group were 861 in 2005, 897 in 2006, and 815 in 2007. During the period 2005-2007, 6 deaths occurred in children younger than 10 years old. In the 10 to 24 year old group males had higher rates than females (p < 0.01). Analysis by gender and age group showed an increase of suicide in males in the group aged 20-24 years old (p < 0.01), while females had the highest rates of suicide in the 15 to 19 year old group. Hanging and use of firearms were the most frequent methods (p < 0.01). The home was the most frequent place where the incident occurred (p< 0.01). Santa Cruz, Salta and Jujuy had the highest rates of suicide in Argentina, whereas Santiago del Estero, Capital Federal and Misiones showed the lowest ones. Suicide in Argentinean adolescents and youth is a public health problem, especially among males. The provinces in the North and South of Argentina had the highest rates in the country.

The effect of kangaroo mother care on mental health of mothers with low birth weight infants

PubMed Central

Badiee, Zohreh; Faramarzi, Salar; MiriZadeh, Tahereh

2014-01-01

Background: The mothers of premature infants are at risk of psychological stress because of separation from their infants. One of the methods influencing the maternal mental health in the postpartum period is kangaroo mother care (KMC). This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of KMC of low birth weight infants on their maternal mental health. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran. Premature infants were randomly allocated into two groups. The control group received standard caring in the incubator. In the experimental group, caring with three sessions of 60 min KMC daily for 1 week was practiced. Mental health scores of the mothers were evaluated by using the 28-item General Health Questionnaire. Statistical analysis was performed by the analysis of covariance using SPSS. Results: The scores of 50 infant-mother pairs were analyzed totally (25 in KMC group and 25 in standard care group). Results of covariance analysis showed the positive effects of KMC on the rate of maternal mental health scores. There were statistically significant differences between the mean scores of the experimental group and control subjects in the posttest period (P < 0.001). Conclusion: KMC for low birth weight infants is a safe way to improve maternal mental health. Therefore, it is suggested as a useful method that can be recommended for improving the mental health of mothers. PMID:25371871

Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Bathymetric Data for the St. Clair River, 1971-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennion, David

2009-01-01

To address questions concerning ongoing geomorphic processes in the St. Clair River, selected bathymetric datasets spanning 36 years were analyzed. Comparisons of recent high-resolution datasets covering the upper river indicate a highly variable, active environment. Although statistical and spatial comparisons of the datasets show that some changes to the channel size and shape have taken place during the study period, uncertainty associated with various survey methods and interpolation processes limit the statistically certain results. The methods used to spatially compare the datasets are sensitive to small variations in position and depth that are within the range of uncertainty associated with the datasets. Characteristics of the data, such as the density of measured points and the range of values surveyed, can also influence the results of spatial comparison. With due consideration of these limitations, apparently active and ongoing areas of elevation change in the river are mapped and discussed.

Load balancing for massively-parallel soft-real-time systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hailperin, M.

1988-09-01

Global load balancing, if practical, would allow the effective use of massively-parallel ensemble architectures for large soft-real-problems. The challenge is to replace quick global communications, which is impractical in a massively-parallel system, with statistical techniques. In this vein, the author proposes a novel approach to decentralized load balancing based on statistical time-series analysis. Each site estimates the system-wide average load using information about past loads of individual sites and attempts to equal that average. This estimation process is practical because the soft-real-time systems of interest naturally exhibit loads that are periodic, in a statistical sense akin to seasonality in econometrics.more » It is shown how this load-characterization technique can be the foundation for a load-balancing system in an architecture employing cut-through routing and an efficient multicast protocol.« less

From random microstructures to representative volume elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeman, J.; Šejnoha, M.

2007-06-01

A unified treatment of random microstructures proposed in this contribution opens the way to efficient solutions of large-scale real world problems. The paper introduces a notion of statistically equivalent periodic unit cell (SEPUC) that replaces in a computational step the actual complex geometries on an arbitrary scale. A SEPUC is constructed such that its morphology conforms with images of real microstructures. Here, the appreciated two-point probability function and the lineal path function are employed to classify, from the statistical point of view, the geometrical arrangement of various material systems. Examples of statistically equivalent unit cells constructed for a unidirectional fibre tow, a plain weave textile composite and an irregular-coursed masonry wall are given. A specific result promoting the applicability of the SEPUC as a tool for the derivation of homogenized effective properties that are subsequently used in an independent macroscopic analysis is also presented.

Batch Statistical Process Monitoring Approach to a Cocrystallization Process.

PubMed

Sarraguça, Mafalda C; Ribeiro, Paulo R S; Dos Santos, Adenilson O; Lopes, João A

2015-12-01

Cocrystals are defined as crystalline structures composed of two or more compounds that are solid at room temperature held together by noncovalent bonds. Their main advantages are the increase of solubility, bioavailability, permeability, stability, and at the same time retaining active pharmaceutical ingredient bioactivity. The cocrystallization between furosemide and nicotinamide by solvent evaporation was monitored on-line using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) as a process analytical technology tool. The near-infrared spectra were analyzed using principal component analysis. Batch statistical process monitoring was used to create control charts to perceive the process trajectory and define control limits. Normal and non-normal operating condition batches were performed and monitored with NIRS. The use of NIRS associated with batch statistical process models allowed the detection of abnormal variations in critical process parameters, like the amount of solvent or amount of initial components present in the cocrystallization. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Predicting water-surface fluctuation of continental lakes: A RS and GIS based approach in Central Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendoza, M.E.; Bocco, G.; Bravo, M.; Lopez, Granados E.; Osterkamp, W.R.

2006-01-01

Changes in the water-surface area occupied by the Cuitzeo Lake, Mexico, during the 1974-2001 period are analysed in this study. The research is based on remote sensing and geographic information techniques, as well as statistical analysis. High-resolution satellite image data were used to analyse the 1974-2000 period, and very low-resolution satellite image data were used for the 1997-2001 period. The long-term analysis (1974-2000) indicated that there were temporal changes in the surface area of the Cuitzeo Lake and that these changes were related to precipitation and temperatures that occurred in the previous year. Short-term monitoring (1997-2001) showed that the Cuitzeo Lake surface is lowering. Field observations demonstrated also that yearly desiccation is recurrent, particularly, in the western section of the lake. Results suggested that this behaviour was probably due to a drought period in the basin that began in the mid 1990s. Regression models constructed from long-term data showed that fluctuations of lake level can be estimated by monthly mean precipitation and temperatures of the previous year. ?? Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006.

The direct field boundary impedance of two-dimensional periodic structures with application to high frequency vibration prediction.

PubMed

Langley, Robin S; Cotoni, Vincent

2010-04-01

Large sections of many types of engineering construction can be considered to constitute a two-dimensional periodic structure, with examples ranging from an orthogonally stiffened shell to a honeycomb sandwich panel. In this paper, a method is presented for computing the boundary (or edge) impedance of a semi-infinite two-dimensional periodic structure, a quantity which is referred to as the direct field boundary impedance matrix. This terminology arises from the fact that none of the waves generated at the boundary (the direct field) are reflected back to the boundary in a semi-infinite system. The direct field impedance matrix can be used to calculate elastic wave transmission coefficients, and also to calculate the coupling loss factors (CLFs), which are required by the statistical energy analysis (SEA) approach to predicting high frequency vibration levels in built-up systems. The calculation of the relevant CLFs enables a two-dimensional periodic region of a structure to be modeled very efficiently as a single subsystem within SEA, and also within related methods, such as a recently developed hybrid approach, which couples the finite element method with SEA. The analysis is illustrated by various numerical examples involving stiffened plate structures.

Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622-1922)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, D.; Feliks, Y.; Ghil, M.

2005-05-01

The historical records of the low- and high-water levels of the Nile River are among the longest climatic records that have near-annual resolution. There are few gaps in the first part of the records (A.D. 622-1470) and larger gaps later (A.D. 1471-1922). We apply advanced spectral methods, Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and the Multi-Taper Method (MTM), to fill the gaps and to locate interannual and interdecadal periodicities. The gap filling uses a novel, iterative version of SSA. Our analysis reveals several statistically significant features of the records: a nonlinear, data-adaptive trend that includes a 256-year cycle, a quasi-quadriennial (4.2-year) and a quasi-biennial (2.2-year) mode, as well as additional periodicities of 64, 19, 12, and, most strikingly, 7 years. The quasi-quadriennial and quasi-biennial modes support the long-established connection between the Nile River discharge and the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The longest periods might be of astronomical origin. The 7-year periodicity, possibly related to the biblical cycle of lean and fat years, seems to be due to North Atlantic influences.

Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hedi; Chen, Haishan; Gray, Lesley; Zhou, Liming; Li, Xing; Wang, Ruili; Zhu, Siguang

2018-03-01

Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11 year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of long-term climate data sets dating back to the late 19th century, however, suggest a mean sea level pressure (mslp) response that lags the SC by 2-4 years in the southern node of the NAO (i.e. Azores region). To understand the conflicting nature and cause of these time dependencies in the SC surface response, the present study employs a lead/lag multi-linear regression technique with a sliding window of 44 years over the period 1751-2016. Results confirm previous analyses, in which the average response for the whole time period features a statistically significant 2-4 year lagged mslp response centered over the Azores region. Overall, the lagged nature of Azores mslp response is generally consistent in time. Stronger and statistically significant SC signals tend to appear in the periods when the SC forcing amplitudes are relatively larger. Individual month analysis indicates the consistent lagged response in December-January-February average arises primarily from early winter months (i.e. December and January), which has been associated with ocean feedback processes that involve reinforcement by anomalies from the previous winter. Additional analysis suggests that the synchronous NAO-like response in recent decades arises primarily from late winter (February), possibly reflecting a result of strong internal noise.

[Transient enlargement of craniopharyngioma cysts after stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery].

PubMed

Mazerkina, N A; Savateev, A N; Gorelyshev, S K; Konovalov, A N; Trunin, Yu Yu; Golanov, A V; Medvedeva, O A; Kalinin, P L; Kutin, M A; Astafieva, L I; Krasnova, T S; Ozerova, V I; Serova, N K; Butenko, E I; Strunina, Yu V

Stereotactic radiotherapy/radiosurgery (RT/ES) is an effective technique for treating craniopharyngiomas (CPs). However, enlargement of the cystic part of the tumor occurs in some cases after irradiation. The enlargement may be transient and not require treatment or be a true relapse requiring treatment. In this study, we performed a retrospective analysis of 79 pediatric patients who underwent stereotactic RT or RS after resection of craniopharyngioma. Five-year relapse-free survival after complex treatment of CP was 86%. In the early period after irradiation, 3.5 months (2.7-9.4) on average, enlargement of the cystic component of the tumor was detected in 10 (12.7%) patients; in 9 (11.4%) of them, the enlargement was transient and did not require treatment; in one case, the patient underwent surgery due to reduced visual acuity. In 8 (10.1%) patients, an increase in the residual tumor (a solid component of the tumor in 2 cases and a cystic component of the tumor in 6 cases) occurred in the long-term period after irradiation - after 26.3 months (16.6-48.9) and did not decrease during follow-up in none of the cases, i.e. continued growth of the tumor was diagnosed. A statistical analysis revealed that differences in the terms of transient enlargement and true continued growth were statistically significant (p<0.01). Enlargement of a craniopharyngioma cyst in the early period (up to 1 year) after RT/RS is usually transient and does not require surgical treatment (except cases where worsening of neurological symptoms occurs, or occlusive hydrocephalus develops).

Intra-articular bupivacaine after joint arthroplasty: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised placebo-controlled studies

PubMed Central

Cui, Yang; Yang, Tuo; Zeng, Chao; Wei, Jie; Xie, Xi; Li, Liangjun; Ding, Xiang; Zhang, Yi; Lei, Guanghua

2016-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the efficacy and safety of intra-articular (IA) bupivacaine administered for pain relief after joint arthroplasty. Design Meta-analysis. Methods A systematic review was conducted to identify the randomised controlled trials using IA bupivacaine for postoperative pain relief from MEDLINE, Cochrane Library and EMBASE databases (up to October 2015). The standardised mean difference (SMD), the relative risk (RR) and their corresponding 95% CIs were calculated using the RevMan statistical software. Results A total of 11 randomised controlled trials were included. Statistically significant differences between IA bupivacaine and placebo were observed for the mean visual analogue scale (VAS) values (SMD −0.55; 95% CI −0.89 to −0.22; p<0.001) and narcotic consumption (SMD −0.32; 95% CI −0.55 to −0.08; p=0.008) during the period of 24 hours postoperatively and narcotic consumption during the period between 24 and 48 hours postoperatively (SMD −0.32; 95% CI −0.55 to −0.08; p=0.009). However, there was no significant difference in the mean VAS pain score during the period between 24  and 48 hours postoperatively (SMD −0.09, 95% CI −0.30 to 0.11; p=0.37) and in the incidence of adverse effects 24–72 hours postoperatively (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.60 to 1.57; p=0.91). Conclusions The administration of IA bupivacaine after joint arthroplasty is effective for pain relief without increasing adverse effects. PMID:27406643

Universal Recurrence Time Statistics of Characteristic Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, C.; Turcotte, D. L.; Abaimov, S.; Nadeau, R. M.

2006-12-01

Characteristic earthquakes are defined to occur quasi-periodically on major faults. Do recurrence time statistics of such earthquakes follow a particular statistical distribution? If so, which one? The answer is fundamental and has important implications for hazard assessment. The problem cannot be solved by comparing the goodness of statistical fits as the available sequences are too short. The Parkfield sequence of M ≍ 6 earthquakes, one of the most extensive reliable data sets available, has grown to merely seven events with the last earthquake in 2004, for example. Recently, however, advances in seismological monitoring and improved processing methods have unveiled so-called micro-repeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur exactly in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Micro-repeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. Due to their recent discovery, however, available sequences contain less than 20 events at present. In this paper we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several micro-repeater sequences from Parkfield and adjacent regions. To improve the statistical significance of our findings, we combine several sequences into one by rescaling the individual sets by their respective mean recurrence intervals and Weibull exponents. This novel approach of rescaled combination yields the most extensive data set possible. We find that the resulting statistics can be fitted well by an exponential distribution, confirming the universal applicability of the Weibull distribution to characteristic earthquakes. A similar result is obtained from rescaled combination, however, with regard to the lognormal distribution.

Sirenomelia in Argentina: Prevalence, geographic clusters and temporal trends analysis.

PubMed

Groisman, Boris; Liascovich, Rosa; Gili, Juan Antonio; Barbero, Pablo; Bidondo, María Paz

2016-07-01

Sirenomelia is a severe malformation of the lower body characterized by a single medial lower limb and a variable combination of visceral abnormalities. Given that Sirenomelia is a very rare birth defect, epidemiological studies are scarce. The aim of this study is to evaluate prevalence, geographic clusters and time trends of sirenomelia in Argentina, using data from the National Network of Congenital Anomalies of Argentina (RENAC) from November 2009 until December 2014. This is a descriptive study using data from the RENAC, a hospital-based surveillance system for newborns affected with major morphological congenital anomalies. We calculated sirenomelia prevalence throughout the period, searched for geographical clusters, and evaluated time trends. The prevalence of confirmed cases of sirenomelia throughout the period was 2.35 per 100,000 births. Cluster analysis showed no statistically significant geographical aggregates. Time-trends analysis showed that the prevalence was higher in years 2009 to 2010. The observed prevalence was higher than the observed in previous epidemiological studies in other geographic regions. We observed a likely real increase in the initial period of our study. We used strict diagnostic criteria, excluding cases that only had clinical diagnosis of sirenomelia. Therefore, real prevalence could be even higher. This study did not show any geographic clusters. Because etiology of sirenomelia has not yet been established, studies of epidemiological features of this defect may contribute to define its causes. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:604-611, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Managing Complexity in Evidence Analysis: A Worked Example in Pediatric Weight Management.

PubMed

Parrott, James Scott; Henry, Beverly; Thompson, Kyle L; Ziegler, Jane; Handu, Deepa

2018-05-02

Nutrition interventions are often complex and multicomponent. Typical approaches to meta-analyses that focus on individual causal relationships to provide guideline recommendations are not sufficient to capture this complexity. The objective of this study is to describe the method of meta-analysis used for the Pediatric Weight Management (PWM) Guidelines update and provide a worked example that can be applied in other areas of dietetics practice. The effects of PWM interventions were examined for body mass index (BMI), body mass index z-score (BMIZ), and waist circumference at four different time periods. For intervention-level effects, intervention types were identified empirically using multiple correspondence analysis paired with cluster analysis. Pooled effects of identified types were examined using random effects meta-analysis models. Differences in effects among types were examined using meta-regression. Context-level effects are examined using qualitative comparative analysis. Three distinct types (or families) of PWM interventions were identified: medical nutrition, behavioral, and missing components. Medical nutrition and behavioral types showed statistically significant improvements in BMIZ across all time points. Results were less consistent for BMI and waist circumference, although four distinct patterns of weight status change were identified. These varied by intervention type as well as outcome measure. Meta-regression indicated statistically significant differences between the medical nutrition and behavioral types vs the missing component type for both BMIZ and BMI, although the pattern varied by time period and intervention type. Qualitative comparative analysis identified distinct configurations of context characteristics at each time point that were consistent with positive outcomes among the intervention types. Although analysis of individual causal relationships is invaluable, this approach is inadequate to capture the complexity of dietetics practice. An alternative approach that integrates intervention-level with context-level meta-analyses may provide deeper understanding in the development of practice guidelines. Copyright © 2018 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the properties of stochastic intermittency in rainfall processes.

PubMed

Molini, A; La, Barbera P; Lanza, L G

2002-01-01

In this work we propose a mixed approach to deal with the modelling of rainfall events, based on the analysis of geometrical and statistical properties of rain intermittency in time, combined with the predictability power derived from the analysis of no-rain periods distribution and from the binary decomposition of the rain signal. Some recent hypotheses on the nature of rain intermittency are reviewed too. In particular, the internal intermittent structure of a high resolution pluviometric time series covering one decade and recorded at the tipping bucket station of the University of Genova is analysed, by separating the internal intermittency of rainfall events from the inter-arrival process through a simple geometrical filtering procedure. In this way it is possible to associate no-rain intervals with a probability distribution both in virtue of their position within the event and their percentage. From this analysis, an invariant probability distribution for the no-rain periods within the events is obtained at different aggregation levels and its satisfactory agreement with a typical extreme value distribution is shown.

A statistical study of decaying kink oscillations detected using SDO/AIA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, C. R.; Nisticò, G.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Zimovets, I. V.

2016-01-01

Context. Despite intensive studies of kink oscillations of coronal loops in the last decade, a large-scale statistically significant investigation of the oscillation parameters has not been made using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Aims: We carry out a statistical study of kink oscillations using extreme ultraviolet imaging data from a previously compiled catalogue. Methods: We analysed 58 kink oscillation events observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board SDO during its first four years of operation (2010-2014). Parameters of the oscillations, including the initial apparent amplitude, period, length of the oscillating loop, and damping are studied for 120 individual loop oscillations. Results: Analysis of the initial loop displacement and oscillation amplitude leads to the conclusion that the initial loop displacement prescribes the initial amplitude of oscillation in general. The period is found to scale with the loop length, and a linear fit of the data cloud gives a kink speed of Ck = (1330 ± 50) km s-1. The main body of the data corresponds to kink speeds in the range Ck = (800-3300) km s-1. Measurements of 52 exponential damping times were made, and it was noted that at least 21 of the damping profiles may be better approximated by a combination of non-exponential and exponential profiles rather than a purely exponential damping envelope. There are nine additional cases where the profile appears to be purely non-exponential and no damping time was measured. A scaling of the exponential damping time with the period is found, following the previously established linear scaling between these two parameters.

Randomized clinical trial of encapsulated and hand-mixed glass-ionomer ART restorations: one-year follow-up

PubMed Central

Freitas, Maria Cristina Carvalho de Almendra; Fagundes, Ticiane Cestari; Modena, Karin Cristina da Silva; Cardia, Guilherme Saintive; Navarro, Maria Fidela de Lima

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective This prospective, randomized, split-mouth clinical trial evaluated the clinical performance of conventional glass ionomer cement (GIC; Riva Self-Cure, SDI), supplied in capsules or in powder/liquid kits and placed in Class I cavities in permanent molars by the Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) approach. Material and Methods A total of 80 restorations were randomly placed in 40 patients aged 11-15 years. Each patient received one restoration with each type of GIC. The restorations were evaluated after periods of 15 days (baseline), 6 months, and 1 year, according to ART criteria. Wilcoxon matched pairs, multivariate logistic regression, and Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were used for statistical analysis. Results Patients were evaluated after 15 days (n=40), 6 months (n=34), and 1 year (n=29). Encapsulated GICs showed significantly superior clinical performance compared with hand-mixed GICs at baseline (p=0.017), 6 months (p=0.001), and 1 year (p=0.026). For hand-mixed GIC, a statistically significant difference was only observed over the period of baseline to 1 year (p=0.001). Encapsulated GIC presented statistically significant differences for the following periods: 6 months to 1 year (p=0.028) and baseline to 1 year (p=0.002). Encapsulated GIC presented superior cumulative survival rate than hand-mixed GIC over one year. Importantly, both GICs exhibited decreased survival over time. Conclusions Encapsulated GIC promoted better ART performance, with an annual failure rate of 24%; in contrast, hand-mixed GIC demonstrated a failure rate of 42%. PMID:29364343

The influence of atmospheric pressure on aortic aneurysm rupture--is the diameter of the aneurysm important?

PubMed

Urbanek, Tomasz; Juśko, Maciej; Niewiem, Alfred; Kuczmik, Wacław; Ziaja, Damian; Ziaja, Krzysztof

2015-01-01

The rate of aortic aneurysm rupture correlates with the aneurysm's diameter, and a higher rate of rupture is observed in patients with larger aneurysms. According to the literature, contradictory results concerning the relationship between atmospheric pressure and aneurysm size have been reported. In this paper, we assessed the influence of changes in atmospheric pressure on abdominal aneurysm ruptures in relationship to the aneurysm's size. The records of 223 patients with ruptured abdominal aneurysms were evaluated. All of the patients had been admitted to the department in the period 1997-2007 from the Silesia region. The atmospheric pressures on the day of the rupture and on the days both before the rupture and between the rupture events were compared. The size of the aneurysm was also considered in the analysis. There were no statistically significant differences in pressure between the days of rupture and the remainder of the days within an analysed period. The highest frequency of the admission of patients with a ruptured aortic aneurysm was observed during periods of winter and spring, when the highest mean values of atmospheric pressure were observed; however, this observation was not statistically confirmed. A statistically non-significant trend towards the higher rupture of large aneurysms (> 7 cm) was observed in the cases where the pressure increased between the day before the rupture and the day of the rupture. This trend was particularly pronounced in patients suffering from hypertension (p = 0.1). The results of this study do not support the hypothesis that there is a direct link between atmospheric pressure values and abdominal aortic aneurysm ruptures.

On the turnaround of stratospheric ozone trends deduced from the reevaluated Umkehr record of Arosa, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanis, P.; Maillard, E.; Staehelin, J.; Zerefos, C.; Kosmidis, E.; Tourpali, K.; Wohltmann, I.

2006-11-01

In this work, we investigate the issue of the turnaround in ozone trends of the recently homogenized Umkehr ozone record of Arosa, Switzerland, which is the longest Umkehr data set, extending from 1956 to date, using different statistical methods. All methods show statistically significant negative ozone trends from 1970 to 1995 in the upper stratosphere (above 32.6 km) throughout the course of the year as well as in the lower stratosphere (below 23.5 km) mainly during winter to spring, which can be partially attributed to dynamical changes. Over the recent period (1996-2004) the year-round trends in the lower stratosphere become positive and are more positive during the winter to spring period. The results also show changes in upper stratospheric ozone trends after 1996, which are, however, not statistically significant at 95% if aerosol correction is applied on the retrieved data. This lack of significant trend changes during the recent period in the upper stratosphere is regionally coherent with recent results derived from upper stratospheric ozone data recorded by lidars, microwave radiometers, and satellite instruments at an adjacent location. Although the positive change in trends after 1996 both for upper and lower stratospheric ozone is in line with the reduction of the emissions of ozone-depleting substances from the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, we recommend, because of lack of significance for the upper stratospheric trends, repeating this analysis in a few years in order to overcome ambiguous results for documentation of the turnaround of upper stratospheric ozone.

Effects of advanced treatment of municipal wastewater on the White River near Indianapolis, Indiana; trends in water quality, 1978-86

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.; Wangsness, David J.

1993-01-01

The City of Indianapolis has constructed state-of-the-art advanced municipal wastewater-treatment systems to enlarge and upgrade the existing secondary-treatment processes at its Belmont and Southport treatment plants. These new advanced-wastewater-treatment plants became operational in 1983. A nonparametric statistical procedure--a modified form of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank-sum test--was used to test for trends in time-series water-quality data from four sites on the White River and from the Belmont and Southport wastewater-treatment plants. Time-series data representative of pre-advanced- (1978-1980) and post-advanced- (1983--86) wastewater-treatment conditions were tested for trends, and the results indicate substantial changes in water quality of treated effluent and of the White River downstream from Indianapolis after implementation of advanced wastewater treatment. Water quality from 1981 through 1982 was highly variable due to plant construction. Therefore, this time period was excluded from the analysis. Water quality at sample sites located upstream from the wastewater-treatment plants was relatively constant during the period of study (1978-86). Analysis of data from the two plants and downstream from the plants indicates statistically significant decreasing trends in effluent concentrations of total ammonia, 5-day biochemical-oxygen demand, fecal-coliform bacteria, total phosphate, and total solids at all sites where sufficient data were available for testing. Because of in-plant nitrification, increases in nitrate concentration were statistically significant in the two plants and in the White River. The decrease in ammonia concentrations and 5-day biochemical-oxygen demand in the White River resulted in a statistically significant increasing trend in dissolved-oxygen concentration in the river because of reduced oxygen demand for nitrification and biochemical oxidation processes. Following implementation of advanced wastewater treatment, the number of river-quality samples that failed to meet the water-quality standards for ammonia and dissolved oxygen that apply to the White River decreased substantially.

Aural analysis of image texture via cepstral filtering and sonification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangayyan, Rangaraj M.; Martins, Antonio C. G.; Ruschioni, Ruggero A.

1996-03-01

Texture plays an important role in image analysis and understanding, with many applications in medical imaging and computer vision. However, analysis of texture by image processing is a rather difficult issue, with most techniques being oriented towards statistical analysis which may not have readily comprehensible perceptual correlates. We propose new methods for auditory display (AD) and sonification of (quasi-) periodic texture (where a basic texture element or `texton' is repeated over the image field) and random texture (which could be modeled as filtered or `spot' noise). Although the AD designed is not intended to be speech- like or musical, we draw analogies between the two types of texture mentioned above and voiced/unvoiced speech, and design a sonification algorithm which incorporates physical and perceptual concepts of texture and speech. More specifically, we present a method for AD of texture where the projections of the image at various angles (Radon transforms or integrals) are mapped to audible signals and played in sequence. In the case of random texture, the spectral envelopes of the projections are related to the filter spot characteristics, and convey the essential information for texture discrimination. In the case of periodic texture, the AD provides timber and pitch related to the texton and periodicity. In another procedure for sonification of periodic texture, we propose to first deconvolve the image using cepstral analysis to extract information about the texton and horizontal and vertical periodicities. The projections of individual textons at various angles are used to create a voiced-speech-like signal with each projection mapped to a basic wavelet, the horizontal period to pitch, and the vertical period to rhythm on a longer time scale. The sound pattern then consists of a serial, melody-like sonification of the patterns for each projection. We believe that our approaches provide the much-desired `natural' connection between the image data and the sounds generated. We have evaluated the sonification techniques with a number of synthetic textures. The sound patterns created have demonstrated the potential of the methods in distinguishing between different types of texture. We are investigating the application of these techniques to auditory analysis of texture in medical images such as magnetic resonance images.

One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2015-10-01

One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

A Statistical Decision Model for Periodical Selection for a Specialized Information Center

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dym, Eleanor D.; Shirey, Donald L.

1973-01-01

An experiment is described which attempts to define a quantitative methodology for the identification and evaluation of all possibly relevant periodical titles containing toxicological-biological information. A statistical decision model was designed and employed, along with yes/no criteria questions, a training technique and a quality control…

Statistical Indicators of Scientific and Technical Communication (1960-1980), 1977 Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, D. W.; And Others

This report describes results of the second year of research in developing statistical indicators of scientific and technical communication. This effort placed special emphasis on the periodical literature including new estimates of the number of journals and other periodicals, characteristics of journals, journal prices, number of subscribers,…

A statistical framework for neuroimaging data analysis based on mutual information estimated via a gaussian copula

PubMed Central

Giordano, Bruno L.; Kayser, Christoph; Rousselet, Guillaume A.; Gross, Joachim; Schyns, Philippe G.

2016-01-01

Abstract We begin by reviewing the statistical framework of information theory as applicable to neuroimaging data analysis. A major factor hindering wider adoption of this framework in neuroimaging is the difficulty of estimating information theoretic quantities in practice. We present a novel estimation technique that combines the statistical theory of copulas with the closed form solution for the entropy of Gaussian variables. This results in a general, computationally efficient, flexible, and robust multivariate statistical framework that provides effect sizes on a common meaningful scale, allows for unified treatment of discrete, continuous, unidimensional and multidimensional variables, and enables direct comparisons of representations from behavioral and brain responses across any recording modality. We validate the use of this estimate as a statistical test within a neuroimaging context, considering both discrete stimulus classes and continuous stimulus features. We also present examples of analyses facilitated by these developments, including application of multivariate analyses to MEG planar magnetic field gradients, and pairwise temporal interactions in evoked EEG responses. We show the benefit of considering the instantaneous temporal derivative together with the raw values of M/EEG signals as a multivariate response, how we can separately quantify modulations of amplitude and direction for vector quantities, and how we can measure the emergence of novel information over time in evoked responses. Open‐source Matlab and Python code implementing the new methods accompanies this article. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1541–1573, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27860095

What influences the choice of assessment methods in health technology assessments? Statistical analysis of international health technology assessments from 1989 to 2002.

PubMed

Draborg, Eva; Andersen, Christian Kronborg

2006-01-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) has been used as input in decision making worldwide for more than 25 years. However, no uniform definition of HTA or agreement on assessment methods exists, leaving open the question of what influences the choice of assessment methods in HTAs. The objective of this study is to analyze statistically a possible relationship between methods of assessment used in practical HTAs, type of assessed technology, type of assessors, and year of publication. A sample of 433 HTAs published by eleven leading institutions or agencies in nine countries was reviewed and analyzed by multiple logistic regression. The study shows that outsourcing of HTA reports to external partners is associated with a higher likelihood of using assessment methods, such as meta-analysis, surveys, economic evaluations, and randomized controlled trials; and with a lower likelihood of using assessment methods, such as literature reviews and "other methods". The year of publication was statistically related to the inclusion of economic evaluations and shows a decreasing likelihood during the year span. The type of assessed technology was related to economic evaluations with a decreasing likelihood, to surveys, and to "other methods" with a decreasing likelihood when pharmaceuticals were the assessed type of technology. During the period from 1989 to 2002, no major developments in assessment methods used in practical HTAs were shown statistically in a sample of 433 HTAs worldwide. Outsourcing to external assessors has a statistically significant influence on choice of assessment methods.

Influence of Deployment on the Use of E-Cigarettes in the United States Army and Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-22

the "Tobacco Use Among Service Members" survey sponsored by the Murtha Cancer Center and the Postgraduate Dental School of the Uniformed Services...the study period, and were willing to complete the survey . The survey was voluntary and anonymous; no personally identifiable information was...collected about participants. Statistical analysis of the data obtained from this survey database was performed using SAS. The independent variables were

Multivariate statistical analysis of hemlock (Tsuga) volatiles by SPME/GC/MS: insights into the phytochemistry of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand)

Treesearch

Anthony Lagalante; Frank Calvosa; Michael Mirzabeigi; Vikram Iyengar; Michael Montgomery; Kathleen Shields

2007-01-01

A previously developed single-needle, SPME/GC/MS technique was used to measure the terpenoid content of T. canadensis growing in a hemlock forest at Lake Scranton, PA (Lagalante and Montgomery 2003). The volatile terpenoid composition was measured over a 1-year period from June 2003 to May 2004 to follow the annual cycle of foliage development from...

Methods of Single Station and Limited Data Analysis and Forecasting

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-15

example using real data. Discusses modifications of SSA technique in certain climatological regimes and describes some statistical tech- niques for SSA of... caster has access to radar or satellite observations, or any computer products during the period of his isolation. Where calculations are involved, it is...chapters of the text will deal with special topics such as modifications of the SSA technique that must be considered for certain clima- tological regimes

Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adam, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, William F.

2011-01-01

A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Quantifying the Relationship between AMC Resources and U.S. Army Materiel Readiness

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-25

Resource Management report 984 for the same period. Insufficient data precluded analysis of the OMA PEs Total Package Fielding and Life Cycle Software...procurement, had the greatest failure rates when subjected to the statistical tests merely because of the reduced number of data pairs. Analyses of...ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT 6.5 - MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT 6.7 - OPERATIONAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT P2 - GENERAL PURPOSE FORCES P3 - INTELIGENCE AND COMMUNICATIONS P7

Air temperature changes in Toruń (central Poland) from 1871 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pospieszyńska, Aleksandra; Przybylak, Rajmund

2018-02-01

The article presents a detailed analysis of changes in air temperature in Toruń in the period 1871-2010 on the basis of homogenised monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature series which have been newly constructed (i.e. extended by the 50 years of 1871-1920). Over the 140-year study period, a sizeable and statistically significant increase of 0.1 °C per decade was found in the air temperature in Toruń. The greatest increases occurred for spring and winter, at 0.12 and 0.11 °C, respectively. A lesser warming, meanwhile, was recorded for autumn (0.10 °C/10 years), and particularly for summer (0.07 °C/10 years). The air temperature trends are statistically significant for all seasons. Air temperature differences between the monthly averages of three analysed subperiods (1871-1900, 1901-1950 and 1951-2010) and averages for the entire period under review rarely exceeded ± 0.5 °C. In all of these periods, the highest average air temperatures occurred in July and the lowest in January. The period of 1981-2010 had the highest frequency of occurrence of very and extremely warm seasons and years. Meanwhile, the highest frequency of very and extremely cool seasons and years was recorded in the 1940s and in the nineteenth century. In the period of 1871-2010, winters shortened markedly (by 7%) and summers lengthened by 3.8%. All of the presented aspects of air temperature in Toruń, which is representative of the climate of central Poland, are in close agreement with the findings of analogous studies of the same for other areas of Poland and Central Europe.

Sialochemical Analysis: A Portal for the Oral Diagnostician

PubMed Central

Bhambal, Ajay

2014-01-01

Background: Depressive disorders, worldwide, may rank second by the year 2020. In India; about 10 million people suffer from depressive disorders, the prevalence rate being recorded as 31.2 for every 1000 individuals. A significant impairment of all personal hygiene may occur due to a depressive episode which in turn may result in altered biochemical composition of some important salivary parameters. The present study was done to assess the relationship and bring about a comparison of certain selective sialochemical alterations between normal and subjects with depressive disorders. Settings and Design: The present study was a hospital- based clinical cross-sectional study which was conducted in Bhopal, the heart of Madhya Pradesh, India. The survey period extended over a period of one year and two months, from May 2009 to July 2010. Material and Methods: Unstimulated whole saliva was analysed biochemically for α- amylase, calcium, sodium, potassium, total proteins and urea. The data obtained in this study were statistically analyzed by using Unpaired Student’s t–test. Results: Salivary calcium and total protein levels were found to be statistically significant among all three groups (p< 0.0001). Salivary amylase levels between Groups II and III and between Groups I and III (p< 0.0001) was statistically significant while the salivary urea levels between Groups I and Group II and between Groups I and III were found to be statistically significant (p< 0.0001). However, there was no statistical difference in their sodium and potassium levels. Conclusions: It was observed that drugs do affect the salivary composition. It was observed that cyclic antidepressants produced significant alteration in the sialochemical constituents of saliva as compared to TCAs and TeCAs. PMID:24995243

LES, DNS and RANS for the analysis of high-speed turbulent reacting flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, V.; Colucci, P. J.; Taulbee, D. B.; Givi, P.

1995-01-01

The purpose of this research is to continue our efforts in advancing the state of knowledge in large eddy simulation (LES), direct numerical simulation (DNS), and Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) methods for the computational analysis of high-speed reacting turbulent flows. In the second phase of this work, covering the period 1 Aug. 1994 - 31 Jul. 1995, we have focused our efforts on two programs: (1) developments of explicit algebraic moment closures for statistical descriptions of compressible reacting flows and (2) development of Monte Carlo numerical methods for LES of chemically reacting flows.

Analysis and discussion on the experimental data of electrolyte analyzer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, XinYu; Jiang, JunJie; Liu, MengJun; Li, Weiwei

2018-06-01

In the subsequent verification of electrolyte analyzer, we found that the instrument can achieve good repeatability and stability in repeated measurements with a short period of time, in line with the requirements of verification regulation of linear error and cross contamination rate, but the phenomenon of large indication error is very common, the measurement results of different manufacturers have great difference, in order to find and solve this problem, help enterprises to improve quality of product, to obtain accurate and reliable measurement data, we conducted the experimental evaluation of electrolyte analyzer, and the data were analyzed by statistical analysis.

EEG analysis using wavelet-based information tools.

PubMed

Rosso, O A; Martin, M T; Figliola, A; Keller, K; Plastino, A

2006-06-15

Wavelet-based informational tools for quantitative electroencephalogram (EEG) record analysis are reviewed. Relative wavelet energies, wavelet entropies and wavelet statistical complexities are used in the characterization of scalp EEG records corresponding to secondary generalized tonic-clonic epileptic seizures. In particular, we show that the epileptic recruitment rhythm observed during seizure development is well described in terms of the relative wavelet energies. In addition, during the concomitant time-period the entropy diminishes while complexity grows. This is construed as evidence supporting the conjecture that an epileptic focus, for this kind of seizures, triggers a self-organized brain state characterized by both order and maximal complexity.

Analysis of the dentin-pulp complex in teeth submitted to orthodontic movement in rats

PubMed Central

MASSARO, Camila da Siveira; CONSOLARO, Renata Bianco; SANTAMARIA, Milton; CONSOLARO, Maria Fernanda Martins-Ortiz; CONSOLARO, Alberto

2009-01-01

ABSTRACT In order to microscopically analyze the pulpal effects of orthodontic movement, 49 maxillary first molars of rats were submitted to orthodontic appliance composed of a closed coil spring anchored to the maxillary incisors, placed for the achievement of mesial movement. Material and Methods: Ten animals were used as the control group and were not submitted to orthodontic force; the other animals were divided into groups according to the study period of tooth movement, namely 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 days. The investigation of pulp and periodontal changes included hyalinization, fibrosis, reactive dentin and vascular congestion. Statistical evaluation was performed between control and experimental groups and between periods of observation using non-parametric chi-square, Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn tests. Results: There was no statistically significant difference concerning pulpal changes between control and experimental groups nor between periods of observation. The control group, at 3 and 5 days, revealed greater hyalinization of the periodontal ligament (p<0.05), whereas root resorption was significantly greater at 5 and 7 days (p<0.05). Conclusion: No morphological change from the effect of induced tooth movement could be found in the dentin-pulp complex. In addition, no inflammatory or pulp degeneration, detectable in optical microscopy, was found in experimental groups. PMID:21499653

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Jastram, John D.

2015-01-01

Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960–2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961–1985 and 1985–2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971–2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Statistically significant temporal trends across the region of 0.023 °C per year for AT and 0.028 °C per year for WT are detected using simple linear regression. Sensitivity analyses show that the irregularly sampled WT data are appropriate for trend analyses, resulting in conservative estimates of trend magnitude. Relations between 190 landscape factors and significant trends in AT-WT relations are examined using principal components analysis. Measures of major dams and deciduous forest are correlated with WT increasing slower than AT, whereas agriculture in the absence of major dams is correlated with WT increasing faster than AT. Increasing WT trends are detected despite increasing trends in streamflow in the northern part of the study area. Continued warming of contributing streams to Chesapeake Bay likely will result in shifts in distributions of aquatic biota and contribute to worsened eutrophic conditions in the bay and its estuaries.

A method to identify aperiodic disturbances in the ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.-S.; Chen, Z.; Huang, C.-M.

2014-05-01

In this paper, variations in the ionospheric F2 layer's critical frequency are decomposed into their periodic and aperiodic components. The latter include disturbances caused both by geophysical impacts on the ionosphere and random noise. The spectral whitening method (SWM), a signal-processing technique used in statistical estimation and/or detection, was used to identify aperiodic components in the ionosphere. The whitening algorithm adopted herein is used to divide the Fourier transform of the observed data series by a real envelope function. As a result, periodic components are suppressed and aperiodic components emerge as the dominant contributors. Application to a synthetic data set based on significant simulated periodic features of ionospheric observations containing artificial (and, hence, controllable) disturbances was used to validate the SWM for identification of aperiodic components. Although the random noise was somewhat enhanced by post-processing, the artificial disturbances could still be clearly identified. The SWM was then applied to real ionospheric observations. It was found to be more sensitive than the often-used monthly median method to identify geomagnetic effects. In addition, disturbances detected by the SWM were characterized by a Gaussian-type probability density function over all timescales, which further simplifies statistical analysis and suggests that the disturbances thus identified can be compared regardless of timescale.

Impact of a crisis assessment and treatment service on admissions into an acute psychiatric unit.

PubMed

Adesanya, Adesina

2005-06-01

To assess the impact of a regional/rural crisis assessment and treatment service (CAT) on admissions into an acute adult inpatient psychiatric facility. Relevant data for admissions into an acute adult inpatient psychiatric facility in the 18 month periods before and after the establishment of a CAT were compared. Data extracted from available clinical records were transferred into an appropriately structured pro forma for statistical analysis. There were 69 and 53 index inpatient unit admissions in the two time periods. The majority of these were for single, unemployed men aged in their 30s. Although statistically non-significant, the results appear to suggest that there were proportionately fewer readmissions and that admissions were likely to be influenced by illness severity and diagnostic considerations in the period following the establishment of the CAT. The establishment of CAT did not appear to have had much impact on the duration of psychiatric hospitalization. Crisis assessment and treatment services operating within a regional/rural integrated mental health setting appear to have only limited impact on hospitalization for psychiatric crisis presentations. There is a need for further studies looking at a broader range of outcome variables in the assessment of the impact of CAT on psychiatric hospitalization in such settings.

Urticaceae pollen concentration in the atmosphere of North Western Spain.

PubMed

Vega-Maray, Ana Maria; Valencia-Barrera, Rosa; Fernandez-Gonzalez, Delia; Fraile, Roberto

2003-01-01

Plants of the Urticaceae family can develop into a pest on soils enriched with nitrogen. Urticaceae pollen is a biohazard because it elicits severe pollinosis. Pollen grains were sampled by using a Lanzoni seven-day-recording trap from February 1995-December 2000 in the atmosphere of the city of Ponferrada (Leon, North Western Spain). The Spearman test was used to analyse the statistical correlation between Urticaceae pollen and certain meteorological factors in different main pollination periods. Maximum values are reached in June and July, minimum levels are recorded in January and December. The parameters bearing the greatest positive influence on the occurrence of Urticaceae pollen grains are: temperature (maximum, minimum and mean), humidity (absolute, wet-bulb temperature, dew point and mixing ratio) and south western wind direction; negative parameters are: relative humidity, rainfall and period without wind. The highest correlation coefficients were obtained with temperature and wet-bulb. Absolute humidity and wet-bulb temperature yielded better correlation than relative humidity; hence, these two parameters must be included in this type of study. The use of one main pollination period or another in statistical analysis has an influence on the coefficient value. The behaviour of the pollen grains in the atmosphere during the year also influences the results.

Spatial and temporal snowpack variation in the crown of the continent ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selkowitz, D.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Reardon, B.A.

2002-01-01

Snowpack related ecosystem changes such as glacier recession and alpine treeline advance have been documented in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) over the course of the previous 150 years. Using data from the Natural Resource Conservation Service's SNOTEL sites and snow course surveys, we examined the spatial and temporal variation in snowpack in the region. SNOTEL data suggest CCE snowpacks are larger and more persistent than in most regions of the Western U.S., and that water year precipitation, rather than mean temperature, is the primary control on April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Snow course data indicate a statistically significant downward trend in mean April 1 SWE for the period 1950-2001 but no statistically significant trend in mean May 1 SWE for the longer period 1922-2001. Further analysis reveals that variations in both April 1 and May 1 mean SWE are closely tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an ENSO-like interdecadal pattern of Pacific Ocean climate variability. Despite no significant trend in mean May 1 SWE between 1922-2001, glaciers in Glacier National Park receded steadily during this period, implying changing climatic conditions crossed a threshold for glacier mass balance maintenace sometime between the Little Ice Age glacial maxima and 1922.

Earthquake Occurrence in Bangladesh and Surrounding Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hussaini, T. M.; Al-Noman, M.

2011-12-01

The collision of the northward moving Indian plate with the Eurasian plate is the cause of frequent earthquakes in the region comprising Bangladesh and neighbouring India, Nepal and Myanmar. Historical records indicate that Bangladesh has been affected by five major earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 (Richter scale) during 1869 to 1930. This paper presents some statistical observations of earthquake occurrence in fulfilment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment of this region. An up to date catalogue covering earthquake information in the region bounded within 17°-30°N and 84°-97°E for the period of historical period to 2010 is derived from various reputed international sources including ISC, IRIS, Indian sources and available publications. Careful scrutiny is done to remove duplicate or uncertain earthquake events. Earthquake magnitudes in the range of 1.8 to 8.1 have been obtained and relationships between different magnitude scales have been studied. Aftershocks are removed from the catalogue using magnitude dependent space window and time window. The main shock data are then analyzed to obtain completeness period for different magnitudes evaluating their temporal homogeneity. Spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, magnitude-depth histograms and other statistical analysis are performed to understand the distribution of seismic activity in this region.

Periodicity analysis of tourist arrivals to Banda Aceh using smoothing SARIMA approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miftahuddin, Helida, Desri; Sofyan, Hizir

2017-11-01

Forecasting the number of tourist arrivals who enters a region is needed for tourism businesses, economic and industrial policies, so that the statistical modeling needs to be conducted. Banda Aceh is the capital of Aceh province more economic activity is driven by the services sector, one of which is the tourism sector. Therefore, the prediction of the number of tourist arrivals is needed to develop further policies. The identification results indicate that the data arrival of foreign tourists to Banda Aceh to contain the trend and seasonal nature. Allegedly, the number of arrivals is influenced by external factors, such as economics, politics, and the holiday season caused the structural break in the data. Trend patterns are detected by using polynomial regression with quadratic and cubic approaches, while seasonal is detected by a periodic regression polynomial with quadratic and cubic approach. To model the data that has seasonal effects, one of the statistical methods that can be used is SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The results showed that the smoothing, a method to detect the trend pattern is cubic polynomial regression approach, with the modified model and the multiplicative periodicity of 12 months. The AIC value obtained was 70.52. While the method for detecting the seasonal pattern is a periodic regression polynomial cubic approach, with the modified model and the multiplicative periodicity of 12 months. The AIC value obtained was 73.37. Furthermore, the best model to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Banda Aceh in 2017 to 2018 is SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,0) with MAPE is 26%.

AN AGE-PERIOD-COHORT ANALYSIS OF CANCER INCIDENCE AMONG THE OLDEST OLD

PubMed Central

Hanson, Heidi A.; Smith, Ken R.; Stroup, Antoinette M.; Harrell, C. Janna

2014-01-01

Separating and understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on major health conditions in the population over eighty-five, the oldest-old, will lead to better population projections of morbidity and mortality. We used age-period-cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillence Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence for ages 65–99 from 1973–2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85–89 age group followed by declines for ages 90–99 when not confounded by the distinct influence of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100. PMID:25396304

Molecular dynamics simulations on networks of heparin and collagen.

PubMed

Kulke, Martin; Geist, Norman; Friedrichs, Wenke; Langel, Walter

2017-06-01

Synthetic scaffolds containing collagen (Type I) are of increasing interest for bone tissue engineering, especially for highly porous biomaterials in combination with glycosaminoglycans. In experiments the integration of heparin during the fibrillogenesis resulted in different types of collagen fibrils, but models for this aggregation on a molecular scale were only tentative. We conducted molecular dynamic simulations investigating the binding of heparin to collagen and the influence of the telopeptides during collagen aggregation. This aims at explaining experimental findings on a molecular level. Novel structures for N- and C-telopeptides were developed with the TIGER2 replica exchange algorithm and dihedral principle component analysis. We present an extended statistical analysis of the mainly electrostatic interaction between heparin and collagen and identify several binding sites. Finally, we propose a molecular mechanism for the influence of glycosaminoglycans on the morphology of collagen fibrils. Proteins 2017; 85:1119-1130. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A study of gravity-wave spectra in the troposphere and stratosphere at 5-min to 5-day periods with the Poker Flat MST radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bemra, R. S.; Rastogi, P. K.; Balsley, B. B.

1986-01-01

An analysis of frequency spectra at periods of about 5 days to 5 min from two 20-day sets of velocity measurements in the stratosphere and troposphere region obtained with the Poker Flat mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radar during January and June, 1984 is presented. A technique based on median filtering and averaged order statistics for automatic editing, smoothing and spectral analysis of velocity time series contaminated with spurious data points or outliers is outlined. The validity of this technique and its effects on the inferred spectral index was tested through simulation. Spectra obtained with this technique are discussed. The measured spectral indices show variability with season and height, especially across the tropopause. The discussion briefly outlines the need for obtaining better climatologies of velocity spectra and for the refinements of the existing theories to explain their behavior.

Cross-correlations between crude oil and exchange markets for selected oil rich economies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianfeng; Lu, Xinsheng; Zhou, Ying

2016-07-01

Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this paper studies the cross-correlation behavior between crude oil market and five selected exchange rate markets. The dataset covers the period of January 1,1996-December 31,2014, and contains 4,633 observations for each of the series, including daily closing prices of crude oil, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Russian Rubles, and South African Rand. Our empirical results obtained from cross-correlation statistic and cross-correlation coefficient have confirmed the existence of cross-correlations, and the MF-DCCA results have demonstrated a strong multifractality between cross-correlated crude oil market and exchange rate markets in both short term and long term. Using rolling window analysis, we have also found the persistent cross-correlations between the exchange rates and crude oil returns, and the cross-correlation scaling exponents exhibit volatility during some time periods due to its sensitivity to sudden events.

Clinical lead poisoning in England: an analysis of routine sources of data.

PubMed

Elliott, P; Arnold, R; Barltrop, D; Thornton, I; House, I M; Henry, J A

1999-12-01

To examine the occurrence of clinical lead poisoning in England based on routine sources of data. Three routine data sources were examined, over different periods according to availability of data: (a) mortality for England, 1981-96; (b) hospital episode statistics data for England, for the 3 years 1 April 1992-31 March 1995; (c) statutory returns to the Health and Safety Executive under the reporting of injuries, diseases, and dangerous occurrences regulations (RIDDOR), also for the period 1 April 1992-31 March 1995. Also, analyses of blood lead concentrations carried out by the Medical Toxicology Unit, Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital Trust in London during the period 1 January 1991-31 December 1997 were examined. The analyses were performed both for industrial screening purposes and in response to clinicians' requests where lead poisoning was suspected. This is one of several laboratories carrying out such analyses in the United Kingdom. One death, of a 2 year old girl, was coded to lead poisoning in England during 1981-96. Analysis of hospital episode statistics data identified 83 hospital cases (124 admissions) over 3 years with any mention of lead poisoning, excluding two with admissions dating from 1965 and 1969. For these 83 cases the median hospital stay per admission was 3 days (range 0-115 days). Five were coded as having received intravenous treatment. Further clinical details of these cases beyond what is routinely recorded on the hospital episode statistics database were not available, except for blood lead concentrations in cases also identified on the Medical Toxicology Unit database. Eighteen cases (22%) were below 5 years of age of whom 10 (56%) came from the most deprived quintile of electoral wards. There was evidence to suggest spatial clustering of cases (p = 0.02). Six occupational cases were reported under RIDDOR in England during the period of study, two of whom were identified on the hospital episode statistics database. One further occupational case was identified on hospital episode statistics. Blood lead analyses for 4424 people carried out by the Medical Toxicology Unit (estimated at about 5% of such analyses in England over 7 years) found that among 547 children aged 0-4, 45 (8.2%) had a blood lead concentration in excess of 25 micrograms/dl, the action level in the United Kingdom for investigation, or removal of environmental sources of lead. At all ages, there were 419 (9.5%) such people, including 106 adults with no mention of industrial exposure. Both mortality and hospital admission ascribed to lead poisoning in England are rare, but cases continue to occur and some, at least, seem to be associated with considerable morbidity. Lead poisoning was confirmed as a probable cause of clinical signs and symptoms in only a small proportion of those in whom a blood lead concentration was requested. Where indicated, appropriate remedial action for the safe removal of environmental sources of lead should be taken.

Building information for systematic improvement of the prevention of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers with statistical process control charts and regression.

PubMed

Padula, William V; Mishra, Manish K; Weaver, Christopher D; Yilmaz, Taygan; Splaine, Mark E

2012-06-01

To demonstrate complementary results of regression and statistical process control (SPC) chart analyses for hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPUs), and identify possible links between changes and opportunities for improvement between hospital microsystems and macrosystems. Ordinary least squares and panel data regression of retrospective hospital billing data, and SPC charts of prospective patient records for a US tertiary-care facility (2004-2007). A prospective cohort of hospital inpatients at risk for HAPUs was the study population. There were 337 HAPU incidences hospital wide among 43 844 inpatients. A probit regression model predicted the correlation of age, gender and length of stay on HAPU incidence (pseudo R(2)=0.096). Panel data analysis determined that for each additional day in the hospital, there was a 0.28% increase in the likelihood of HAPU incidence. A p-chart of HAPU incidence showed a mean incidence rate of 1.17% remaining in statistical control. A t-chart showed the average time between events for the last 25 HAPUs was 13.25 days. There was one 57-day period between two incidences during the observation period. A p-chart addressing Braden scale assessments showed that 40.5% of all patients were risk stratified for HAPUs upon admission. SPC charts complement standard regression analysis. SPC amplifies patient outcomes at the microsystem level and is useful for guiding quality improvement. Macrosystems should monitor effective quality improvement initiatives in microsystems and aid the spread of successful initiatives to other microsystems, followed by system-wide analysis with regression. Although HAPU incidence in this study is below the national mean, there is still room to improve HAPU incidence in this hospital setting since 0% incidence is theoretically achievable. Further assessment of pressure ulcer incidence could illustrate improvement in the quality of care and prevent HAPUs.

Estimation of sensible and latent heat flux from natural sparse vegetation surfaces using surface renewal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zapata, N.; Martínez-Cob, A.

2001-12-01

This paper reports a study undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of the surface renewal method to accurately estimate long-term evaporation from the playa and margins of an endorreic salty lagoon (Gallocanta lagoon, Spain) under semiarid conditions. High-frequency temperature readings were taken for two time lags ( r) and three measurement heights ( z) in order to get surface renewal sensible heat flux ( HSR) values. These values were compared against eddy covariance sensible heat flux ( HEC) values for a calibration period (25-30 July 2000). Error analysis statistics (index of agreement, IA; root mean square error, RMSE; and systematic mean square error, MSEs) showed that the agreement between HSR and HEC improved as measurement height decreased and time lag increased. Calibration factors α were obtained for all analyzed cases. The best results were obtained for the z=0.9 m ( r=0.75 s) case for which α=1.0 was observed. In this case, uncertainty was about 10% in terms of relative error ( RE). Latent heat flux values were obtained by solving the energy balance equation for both the surface renewal ( LESR) and the eddy covariance ( LEEC) methods, using HSR and HEC, respectively, and measurements of net radiation and soil heat flux. For the calibration period, error analysis statistics for LESR were quite similar to those for HSR, although errors were mostly at random. LESR uncertainty was less than 9%. Calibration factors were applied for a validation data subset (30 July-4 August 2000) for which meteorological conditions were somewhat different (higher temperatures and wind speed and lower solar and net radiation). Error analysis statistics for both HSR and LESR were quite good for all cases showing the goodness of the calibration factors. Nevertheless, the results obtained for the z=0.9 m ( r=0.75 s) case were still the best ones.

The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

PubMed

Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

2015-01-01

Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). Discrimination remained excellent when only elective procedures were considered. There was no evidence of miscalibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. We have developed accurate models to assess risk of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Imperial College near infrared spectroscopy neuroimaging analysis framework.

PubMed

Orihuela-Espina, Felipe; Leff, Daniel R; James, David R C; Darzi, Ara W; Yang, Guang-Zhong

2018-01-01

This paper describes the Imperial College near infrared spectroscopy neuroimaging analysis (ICNNA) software tool for functional near infrared spectroscopy neuroimaging data. ICNNA is a MATLAB-based object-oriented framework encompassing an application programming interface and a graphical user interface. ICNNA incorporates reconstruction based on the modified Beer-Lambert law and basic processing and data validation capabilities. Emphasis is placed on the full experiment rather than individual neuroimages as the central element of analysis. The software offers three types of analyses including classical statistical methods based on comparison of changes in relative concentrations of hemoglobin between the task and baseline periods, graph theory-based metrics of connectivity and, distinctively, an analysis approach based on manifold embedding. This paper presents the different capabilities of ICNNA in its current version.

Total Ore Processing Integration and Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leslie Gertsch; Richard Gertsch

2006-01-30

This report outlines the technical progress achieved for project DE-FC26-03NT41785 (Total Ore Processing Integration and Management) during the period 01 July through 30 September of 2005. This ninth quarterly report discusses the activities of the project team during the period 1 July through 30 September 2005. Richard Gertsch's unexpected death due to natural causes while in Minnesota to work on this project has temporarily slowed progress. Statistical analysis of the Minntac Mine data set for late 2004 is continuing. Preliminary results raised several questions that could be amenable to further study. Detailed geotechnical characterization is being applied to improve themore » predictability of mill and agglomerator performance at Hibtac Mine.« less

Investigation of Structure in the Light Curves of a Sample of Newly Discovered Long Period Variable Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craine, E. R.; Culver, R. B.; Eykholt, R.; Flurchick, K. M.; Kraus, A. L.; Tucker, R. A.; Walker, D. K.

2015-09-01

Long period variable stars exhibit hump structures, and possibly flares, in their light curves. While the existence of humps is not controversial, the presence of flaring activity is less clear. Mining of a sky survey database of new variable star discoveries (the first MOTESS-GNAT Variable Star Catalog (MG1-VSC)) has led to identification of 47 such stars for which there are sufficient data to explore the presence of anomalous light curve features. We find a number of hump structures, and see one possible flare, suggesting that they are rare events. We present light curves and measured parameters for these stars, and a population statistical analysis.

Detection of frequency-mode-shift during thermoacoustic combustion oscillations in a staged aircraft engine model combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Hiroaki; Gotoda, Hiroshi; Tachibana, Shigeru; Yoshida, Seiji

2017-12-01

We conduct an experimental study using time series analysis based on symbolic dynamics to detect a precursor of frequency-mode-shift during thermoacoustic combustion oscillations in a staged aircraft engine model combustor. With increasing amount of the main fuel, a significant shift in the dominant frequency-mode occurs in noisy periodic dynamics, leading to a notable increase in oscillation amplitudes. The sustainment of noisy periodic dynamics during thermoacoustic combustion oscillations is clearly shown by the multiscale complexity-entropy causality plane in terms of statistical complexity. A modified version of the permutation entropy allows us to detect a precursor of the frequency-mode-shift before the amplification of pressure fluctuations.

Statistical analysis and modeling of the temperature-dependent sleep behavior of drosophila

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Chi-Tin; Lin, Hsuan-Wen; Chiang, Ann-Shyn

2011-01-01

The sleep behavior of drosophila is analyzed under different temperatures. The activity per minute of the flies is recorded automatically. Sleep for a fruit fly is defined as the periods without any activity and longer than 5 minutes. Several parameters such as total sleep time, circadian sleep profile, quality of sleep are analyzed. The sleep behaviors are significantly different for flies at different temperature. Interestingly, the durations of daytime sleep periods show a common scale-free power law distribution. We propose a stochastic model to simulate the activities of the population of neurons which regulate the dynamics of sleep-wake process to explain the distribution of daytime sleep.

Evaluation of a complex intervention to improve primary care prescribing: a phase IV segmented regression interrupted time series analysis

PubMed Central

MacBride-Stewart, Sean; Marwick, Charis; Houston, Neil; Watt, Iain; Patton, Andrea; Guthrie, Bruce

2017-01-01

Background It is uncertain whether improvements in primary care high-risk prescribing seen in research trials can be realised in the real-world setting. Aim To evaluate the impact of a 1-year system-wide phase IV prescribing safety improvement initiative, which included education, feedback, support to identify patients to review, and small financial incentives. Design and setting An interrupted time series analysis of targeted high-risk prescribing in all 56 general practices in NHS Forth Valley, Scotland, was performed. In 2013–2014, this focused on high-risk non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in older people and NSAIDs with oral anticoagulants; in 2014–2015, it focused on antipsychotics in older people. Method The primary analysis used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact at the end of the intervention, and 12 months later. The secondary analysis used difference-in-difference methods to compare Forth Valley changes with those in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC). Results In the primary analysis, downward trends for all three NSAID measures that were existent before the intervention statistically significantly steepened following implementation of the intervention. At the end of the intervention period, 1221 fewer patients than expected were prescribed a high-risk NSAID. In contrast, antipsychotic prescribing in older people increased slowly over time, with no intervention-associated change. In the secondary analysis, reductions at the end of the intervention period in all three NSAID measures were statistically significantly greater in NHS Forth Valley than in NHS GGC, but only significantly greater for two of these measures 12 months after the intervention finished. Conclusion There were substantial and sustained reductions in the high-risk prescribing of NSAIDs, although with some waning of effect 12 months after the intervention ceased. The same intervention had no effect on antipsychotic prescribing in older people. PMID:28347986

Evaluation of a complex intervention to improve primary care prescribing: a phase IV segmented regression interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

MacBride-Stewart, Sean; Marwick, Charis; Houston, Neil; Watt, Iain; Patton, Andrea; Guthrie, Bruce

2017-05-01

It is uncertain whether improvements in primary care high-risk prescribing seen in research trials can be realised in the real-world setting. To evaluate the impact of a 1-year system-wide phase IV prescribing safety improvement initiative, which included education, feedback, support to identify patients to review, and small financial incentives. An interrupted time series analysis of targeted high-risk prescribing in all 56 general practices in NHS Forth Valley, Scotland, was performed. In 2013-2014, this focused on high-risk non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in older people and NSAIDs with oral anticoagulants; in 2014-2015, it focused on antipsychotics in older people. The primary analysis used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact at the end of the intervention, and 12 months later. The secondary analysis used difference-in-difference methods to compare Forth Valley changes with those in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC). In the primary analysis, downward trends for all three NSAID measures that were existent before the intervention statistically significantly steepened following implementation of the intervention. At the end of the intervention period, 1221 fewer patients than expected were prescribed a high-risk NSAID. In contrast, antipsychotic prescribing in older people increased slowly over time, with no intervention-associated change. In the secondary analysis, reductions at the end of the intervention period in all three NSAID measures were statistically significantly greater in NHS Forth Valley than in NHS GGC, but only significantly greater for two of these measures 12 months after the intervention finished. There were substantial and sustained reductions in the high-risk prescribing of NSAIDs, although with some waning of effect 12 months after the intervention ceased. The same intervention had no effect on antipsychotic prescribing in older people. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Gap Shape Classification using Landscape Indices and Multivariate Statistics

PubMed Central

Wu, Chih-Da; Cheng, Chi-Chuan; Chang, Che-Chang; Lin, Chinsu; Chang, Kun-Cheng; Chuang, Yung-Chung

2016-01-01

This study proposed a novel methodology to classify the shape of gaps using landscape indices and multivariate statistics. Patch-level indices were used to collect the qualified shape and spatial configuration characteristics for canopy gaps in the Lienhuachih Experimental Forest in Taiwan in 1998 and 2002. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis was used to assess the optimal number of gap clusters and canonical discriminant analysis was used to generate the discriminant functions for canopy gap classification. The gaps for the two periods were optimally classified into three categories. In general, gap type 1 had a more complex shape, gap type 2 was more elongated and gap type 3 had the largest gaps that were more regular in shape. The results were evaluated using Wilks’ lambda as satisfactory (p < 0.001). The agreement rate of confusion matrices exceeded 96%. Differences in gap characteristics between the classified gap types that were determined using a one-way ANOVA showed a statistical significance in all patch indices (p = 0.00), except for the Euclidean nearest neighbor distance (ENN) in 2002. Taken together, these results demonstrated the feasibility and applicability of the proposed methodology to classify the shape of a gap. PMID:27901127

A statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, E. N.; Choe, Y.; Luithardt, H.; Czeisler, C. A.

2000-01-01

We formulate a statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm in which the circadian signal is modeled as a van der Pol oscillator, the thermoregulatory response is represented as a first-order autoregressive process, and the evoked effect of activity is modeled with a function specific for each circadian protocol. The new model directly links differential equation-based simulation models and harmonic regression analysis methods and permits statistical analysis of both static and dynamical properties of the circadian pacemaker from experimental data. We estimate the model parameters by using numerically efficient maximum likelihood algorithms and analyze human core-temperature data from forced desynchrony, free-run, and constant-routine protocols. By representing explicitly the dynamical effects of ambient light input to the human circadian pacemaker, the new model can estimate with high precision the correct intrinsic period of this oscillator ( approximately 24 h) from both free-run and forced desynchrony studies. Although the van der Pol model approximates well the dynamical features of the circadian pacemaker, the optimal dynamical model of the human biological clock may have a harmonic structure different from that of the van der Pol oscillator.

Gap Shape Classification using Landscape Indices and Multivariate Statistics.

PubMed

Wu, Chih-Da; Cheng, Chi-Chuan; Chang, Che-Chang; Lin, Chinsu; Chang, Kun-Cheng; Chuang, Yung-Chung

2016-11-30

This study proposed a novel methodology to classify the shape of gaps using landscape indices and multivariate statistics. Patch-level indices were used to collect the qualified shape and spatial configuration characteristics for canopy gaps in the Lienhuachih Experimental Forest in Taiwan in 1998 and 2002. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis was used to assess the optimal number of gap clusters and canonical discriminant analysis was used to generate the discriminant functions for canopy gap classification. The gaps for the two periods were optimally classified into three categories. In general, gap type 1 had a more complex shape, gap type 2 was more elongated and gap type 3 had the largest gaps that were more regular in shape. The results were evaluated using Wilks' lambda as satisfactory (p < 0.001). The agreement rate of confusion matrices exceeded 96%. Differences in gap characteristics between the classified gap types that were determined using a one-way ANOVA showed a statistical significance in all patch indices (p = 0.00), except for the Euclidean nearest neighbor distance (ENN) in 2002. Taken together, these results demonstrated the feasibility and applicability of the proposed methodology to classify the shape of a gap.

Parent's social status and children's nutrition influence on the university entrance of young adults in the last two decades in Brazil.

PubMed

Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Conde, Wolney Lisboa

2014-01-01

The analysis of social indicators and health status of parents and children is a preferred way to estimate the potential for social mobility in different societies or different periods in the same society. To analyze the evolution of educational and nutritional status of the Brazilian families by an intergenerational approach. A representative sample of the Brazilian population, consisting of parents (35 to 65 years old) and young adults (20 to 24 years old) obtained from three national surveys NHNS (1989), HBS (2003 and 2009). We performed a descriptive analysis and, for the sons, we calculated the probability of starting college using the multilevel logistic regression with random intercept model. The advance of the nutritional status of young people was statistically higher than to their parents (p < 0.005). Social conditions experienced in childhood and family status had great influence on their later school success. These data indicate improvements in social status controlled by the nutritional status, initiated in the period of 1989-2003. Although inequality persists in the country, the family's influence declined in the period 2003-2009.

Seventeen-year systematic measurements of dust aerosol optical properties using the eole ntua lidar system (2000-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soupiona, Ourania; Mylonaki, Maria; Papayannis, Alexandros; Argyrouli, Athina; Kokkalis, Panayotis; Tsaknakis, Georgios

2018-04-01

A comprehensive analysis of the seasonal variability of the optical properties of Saharan dust aerosols over Athens, Greece, is presented for a 17-year time period (2000-2016), as derived from multi-wavelength Raman lidar measurements (57 dust events with more than 80 hours of measurements). The profiles of the derived aerosol optical properties (aerosol backscatter and extinction coefficients, lidar ratio and aerosol Ångström exponent) at 355 nm are presented. For these dust events we found a mean value of the lidar ratio of 52±13 sr at 355 nm and of 58±8 sr (not shown) at 532 nm (2-4 km a.s.l. height). For our statistical analysis, presented here, we used monthly-mean values and time periods under cloud-free conditions. The number of dust events was greatest in late spring, summer, and early autumn periods. In this paper we also present a selected case study (04 April 2016) of desert dust long-range transport from the Saharan desert.

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970-1980 and after 1992.

The influence of academic examinations on energy and nutrient intake in male university students.

PubMed

Barker, Margo E; Blain, Richard J; Russell, Jean M

2015-09-25

Taking examinations is central to student experience at University and may cause psychological stress. Although stress is recognised to impact on food intake, the effects of undertaking examinations on students' dietary intake have not been well characterised. The purpose of this study was to assess how students' energy and nutrient intake may alter during examination periods. The study design was a within-subject comparison of students' energy and nutrient intake during an examination period contrasted with that outside an examination period (baseline). A total of 20 male students from the University of Sheffield completed an automated photographic 4-d dietary record alongside four 24-h recalls in each time period. Daily energy and nutrient intake was estimated for each student by time period and change in energy and nutrient intake calculated. Intakes at baseline were compared to UK dietary recommendations. Cluster analysis categorised students according to their change in energy intake between baseline and the examination period. Non-parametric statistical tests identified differences by cluster. Baseline intakes did not meet recommendations for energy, non-milk extrinsic sugars, non-starch polysaccharide and sodium. Three defined clusters of students were identified: Cluster D who decreased daily energy intake by 12.06 MJ (n = 5), Cluster S who had similar energy intakes (n = 13) and Cluster I who substantially increased energy intake by 6.37 MJ (n = 2) between baseline and examination period. There were statistically significant differences (all p < 0.05) in change in intake of protein, carbohydrate, calcium and sodium between clusters. Cluster D recorded greater energy, carbohydrate and protein intakes than Cluster I at baseline. The majority of students were dietary resilient. Students who demonstrated hypophagia in the examination period had a high energy and nutrient intake at baseline, conversely those who showed hyperphagia had a low energy and nutrient intake. These patterns require confirmation in studies including women, but if confirmed, there is need to address some students' poor food choice especially during examinations.

Inferring Master Painters' Esthetic Biases from the Statistics of Portraits

PubMed Central

Aleem, Hassan; Correa-Herran, Ivan; Grzywacz, Norberto M.

2017-01-01

The Processing Fluency Theory posits that the ease of sensory information processing in the brain facilitates esthetic pleasure. Accordingly, the theory would predict that master painters should display biases toward visual properties such as symmetry, balance, and moderate complexity. Have these biases been occurring and if so, have painters been optimizing these properties (fluency variables)? Here, we address these questions with statistics of portrait paintings from the Early Renaissance period. To do this, we first developed different computational measures for each of the aforementioned fluency variables. Then, we measured their statistics in 153 portraits from 26 master painters, in 27 photographs of people in three controlled poses, and in 38 quickly snapped photographs of individual persons. A statistical comparison between Early Renaissance portraits and quickly snapped photographs revealed that painters showed a bias toward balance, symmetry, and moderate complexity. However, a comparison between portraits and controlled-pose photographs showed that painters did not optimize each of these properties. Instead, different painters presented biases toward different, narrow ranges of fluency variables. Further analysis suggested that the painters' individuality stemmed in part from having to resolve the tension between complexity vs. symmetry and balance. We additionally found that constraints on the use of different painting materials by distinct painters modulated these fluency variables systematically. In conclusion, the Processing Fluency Theory of Esthetic Pleasure would need expansion if we were to apply it to the history of visual art since it cannot explain the lack of optimization of each fluency variables. To expand the theory, we propose the existence of a Neuroesthetic Space, which encompasses the possible values that each of the fluency variables can reach in any given art period. We discuss the neural mechanisms of this Space and propose that it has a distributed representation in the human brain. We further propose that different artists reside in different, small sub-regions of the Space. This Neuroesthetic-Space hypothesis raises the question of how painters and their paintings evolve across art periods. PMID:28337133

Reduction in the incidence of shivering with perioperative dexmedetomidine: A randomized prospective study

PubMed Central

Bajwa, Sukhminder Jit Singh; Gupta, Sachin; Kaur, Jasbir; Singh, Amarjit; Parmar, SS

2012-01-01

Background and Aims: Shivering is distressing to the patient and discomforting to the attending anesthesiologist, with a varying degree of success. Various drugs and regimens have been employed to abolish the occurrence of shivering. The present study aims to explore the effectiveness of dexmedetomidine in suppressing the postanesthetic shivering in patients undergoing general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: The present study was carried out on 80 patients, in American Society of Anesthesiologists I and II, aged 22–59 years, who underwent general anesthesia for laparoscopic surgical procedures. Patients were allocated randomly into two groups: group N (n = 40) and group D (n = 40). Group D were administered 1 μg/kg of dexmedetomidine intravenously, while group N received similar volume of saline during peri-op period. Cardiorespiratory parameters were observed and recorded during the preop, intraop, and postop periods. Any incidence of postop shivering was observed and recorded as per 4 point scale. Side effects were also observed, recorded, and treated symptomatically. Statistical analysis was carried out using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 15.0 for windows and employing ANOVA and chi-square test with post-hoc comparisons with Bonferroni's correction. Results: The two groups were comparable regarding demographic profile (P > 0.05). Incidence of shivering in group N was 42.5%, which was statistically highly significant (P = 0.014). Heart rate and mean arterial pressure also showed significant variation clinically and statistically in group D patients during the postop period (P = 0.008 and 0.012). A high incidence of sedation (P = 0.000) and dry mouth (P = 0.000) was observed in group D, whereas the incidence of nausea and vomiting was higher in group N (P = 0.011 and 0.034). Conclusions: Dexmedetomidine seems to possess antishivering properties and was found to reduce the occurrence of shivering in patients undergoing general anesthesia. PMID:22345953

Improving Our Ability to Evaluate Underlying Mechanisms of Behavioral Onset and Other Event Occurrence Outcomes: A Discrete-Time Survival Mediation Model

PubMed Central

Fairchild, Amanda J.; Abara, Winston E.; Gottschall, Amanda C.; Tein, Jenn-Yun; Prinz, Ronald J.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce and describe a statistical model that researchers can use to evaluate underlying mechanisms of behavioral onset and other event occurrence outcomes. Specifically, the article develops a framework for estimating mediation effects with outcomes measured in discrete-time epochs by integrating the statistical mediation model with discrete-time survival analysis. The methodology has the potential to help strengthen health research by targeting prevention and intervention work more effectively as well as by improving our understanding of discretized periods of risk. The model is applied to an existing longitudinal data set to demonstrate its use, and programming code is provided to facilitate its implementation. PMID:24296470

Post Second World War immigration from Balkan countries to Turkey.

PubMed

Kirisci, K

1995-01-01

"Although there are some works, both in English and Turkish, that have studied migration into the Ottoman empire from the Balkans during the 19th century...it is difficult to find any systematic and comprehensive literature that examines the period since the establishment of the Turkish Republic.... This article aims at filling some of this gap....[The article offers] an analysis of the size and causes of migration from the Balkans to Turkey since the end of the Second World War. The statistics for tables used in this article, unless stated otherwise, have been obtained from the General Directorate of Village Works in Ankara, which is responsible for keeping the statistical records on immigrants arriving in Turkey." excerpt