Automated Estimation Of Software-Development Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roush, George B.; Reini, William

1993-01-01

COSTMODL is automated software development-estimation tool. Yields significant reduction in risk of cost overruns and failed projects. Accepts description of software product developed and computes estimates of effort required to produce it, calendar schedule required, and distribution of effort and staffing as function of defined set of development life-cycle phases. Written for IBM PC(R)-compatible computers.

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barley, Bryan; Newhouse, Marilyn; Bacskay, Allen

2010-01-01

Use of heritage and new technology is necessary/enabling to implementing small, low cost missions, yet overruns decrease the ability to sustain future mission flight rates The majority of the cost growth drivers seen in the D&NF study were embedded early during formulation phase and later realized during the development and I&T phases Cost drivers can be avoided or significantly decreased by project management and SE emphasis on early identification of risks and realistic analyses SE processes that emphasize an assessment of technology within the mission system to identify technical issues in the design or operational use of the technology. Realistic assessment of new and heritage spacecraft technology assumptions , identification of risks and mitigation strategies. Realistic estimates of effort required to inherit existing or qualify new technology, identification of risks to estimates and develop mitigation strategies. Allocation of project reserves for risk-based mitigation strategies of each individual area of heritage or new technology. Careful tailoring of inheritance processes to ensure due diligence.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.

PubMed

Otsuki, Shiori; Nishiura, Hiroshi

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Otsuki, Shiori

2016-01-01

Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544

Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitfield, Jeff

1998-01-01

Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.

NLC Mechanical

Science.gov Websites

group depend on the project phase and the maturity of the NLC design. Currently the NLC project is in design approaches that will enable cost estimates, schedules, risk assessment and risk reduction availability are utilized in generating and selecting among design alternatives. A more comprehensive version

Improved Horvitz-Thompson Estimation of Model Parameters from Two-phase Stratified Samples: Applications in Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Breslow, Norman E.; Lumley, Thomas; Ballantyne, Christie M; Chambless, Lloyd E.; Kulich, Michal

2009-01-01

The case-cohort study involves two-phase sampling: simple random sampling from an infinite super-population at phase one and stratified random sampling from a finite cohort at phase two. Standard analyses of case-cohort data involve solution of inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimating equations, with weights determined by the known phase two sampling fractions. The variance of parameter estimates in (semi)parametric models, including the Cox model, is the sum of two terms: (i) the model based variance of the usual estimates that would be calculated if full data were available for the entire cohort; and (ii) the design based variance from IPW estimation of the unknown cohort total of the efficient influence function (IF) contributions. This second variance component may be reduced by adjusting the sampling weights, either by calibration to known cohort totals of auxiliary variables correlated with the IF contributions or by their estimation using these same auxiliary variables. Both adjustment methods are implemented in the R survey package. We derive the limit laws of coefficients estimated using adjusted weights. The asymptotic results suggest practical methods for construction of auxiliary variables that are evaluated by simulation of case-cohort samples from the National Wilms Tumor Study and by log-linear modeling of case-cohort data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Although not semiparametric efficient, estimators based on adjusted weights may come close to achieving full efficiency within the class of augmented IPW estimators. PMID:20174455

Quantifying and Qualifying the Preventive Effects of Acute-Phase Cognitive Therapy: Pathways to Personalizing Care

PubMed Central

Jarrett, Robin B.; Minhajuddin, Abu; Vittengl, Jeffrey R.; Clark, Lee Anna; Thase, Michael E.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine the extent to which prospectively identified responders to cognitive therapy (CT) for recurrent major depressive disorder (MDD) hypothesized to be lower risk show significantly less relapse/recurrence than treated higher risk counterparts across 32 months. Method Outpatients (N = 523), aged 18–70, with recurrent MDD received 12–14 weeks of CT. The last seven consecutive scores from the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD-17), were used to stratify/define responders (n = 290) into lower (seven HRSD-17 scores of ≤ 6; n = 49; 17%) and higher risk (n = 241; 83%). The lower risk entered the 32-month follow-up. Higher risk patients were randomized to 8 months of continuation-phase CT or clinical management plus double-blind fluoxetine or pill placebo, with a 24-month follow-up. Results Lower risk patients were significantly less likely to relapse over the first 8 months compared to higher risk (Kaplan-Meier [KM] estimates (i.e., 4.9%=lower risk; 22.1%= higher risk; log-rank χ2 = 6.83, p = .009). This increased risk was attenuated, but not completely neutralized, by active continuation-phase therapy. Over the subsequent 24 months, the lower and higher risk groups did not differ in relapse/recurrence risk. Conclusions Rapid and sustained acute-phase CT remission identifies responders who do not require continuation-phase treatment to prevent relapse (i.e., return of an index episode). To prevent recurrence (i.e., new episodes), however, strategic allocation and more frequent “dosing” of CT and/or targeted maintenance-phase treatments may be required. Longitudinal follow-up is recommended. PMID:26654211

A quick earthquake disaster loss assessment method supported by dasymetric data for emergency response in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jinghai; An, Jiwen; Nie, Gaozong

2016-04-01

Improving earthquake disaster loss estimation speed and accuracy is one of the key factors in effective earthquake response and rescue. The presentation of exposure data by applying a dasymetric map approach has good potential for addressing this issue. With the support of 30'' × 30'' areal exposure data (population and building data in China), this paper presents a new earthquake disaster loss estimation method for emergency response situations. This method has two phases: a pre-earthquake phase and a co-earthquake phase. In the pre-earthquake phase, we pre-calculate the earthquake loss related to different seismic intensities and store them in a 30'' × 30'' grid format, which has several stages: determining the earthquake loss calculation factor, gridding damage probability matrices, calculating building damage and calculating human losses. Then, in the co-earthquake phase, there are two stages of estimating loss: generating a theoretical isoseismal map to depict the spatial distribution of the seismic intensity field; then, using the seismic intensity field to extract statistics of losses from the pre-calculated estimation data. Thus, the final loss estimation results are obtained. The method is validated by four actual earthquakes that occurred in China. The method not only significantly improves the speed and accuracy of loss estimation but also provides the spatial distribution of the losses, which will be effective in aiding earthquake emergency response and rescue. Additionally, related pre-calculated earthquake loss estimation data in China could serve to provide disaster risk analysis before earthquakes occur. Currently, the pre-calculated loss estimation data and the two-phase estimation method are used by the China Earthquake Administration.

Work plan for conducting an ecological risk assessment at J-Field, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.; Kuperman, R.

1995-03-01

The Environmental Management Division of Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, is conducting a remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) of the J-Field area at APG pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. J-Field is within the Edgewood Area of APG in Harford County, Maryland, and activities at the Edgewood Area since World War II have included the development, manufacture, testing, and destruction of chemical agents and munitions. The J-Field site was used to destroy chemical agents and munitions by open burning and open detonation. This work plan presents the approach proposed to conduct anmore » ecological risk assessment (ERA) as part of the RI/FS program at J-Field. This work plan identifies the locations and types of field studies proposed for each area of concern (AOC), the laboratory studies proposed to evaluate toxicity of media, and the methodology to be used in estimating doses to ecological receptors and discusses the approach that will be used to estimate and evaluate ecological risks at J-Field. Eight AOCs have been identified at J-Field, and the proposed ERA is designed to evaluate the potential for adverse impacts to ecological receptors from contaminated media at each AOC, as well as over the entire J-Field site. The proposed ERA approach consists of three major phases, incorporating field and laboratory studies as well as modeling. Phase 1 includes biotic surveys of the aquatic and terrestrial habitats, biological tissue sampling and analysis, and media toxicity testing at each AOC and appropriate reference locations. Phase 2 includes definitive toxicity testing of media from areas of known or suspected contamination or of media for which the Phase 1 results indicate toxicity or adverse ecological effects. In Phase 3, the uptake models initially developed in Phase 2 will be finalized, and contaminant dose to each receptor from all complete pathways will be estimated.« less

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Rebora, Paola; Antolini, Laura; Glidden, David V; Valsecchi, Maria Grazia

2016-01-11

In many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome. We develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard. The proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care. A valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived.

Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

PubMed

Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

2017-05-01

The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Consumer phase risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats.

PubMed

Yang, Hong; Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Jaykus, Lee-Ann; Morales, Roberta A; Cates, Sheryl C; Cowen, Peter

2006-02-01

The foodborne disease risk associated with the pathogen Listeria monocytogenes has been the subject of recent efforts in quantitative microbial risk assessment. Building upon one of these efforts undertaken jointly by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the purpose of this work was to expand on the consumer phase of the risk assessment to focus on handling practices in the home. One-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation was used to model variability in growth and cross-contamination of L. monocytogenes during food storage and preparation of deli meats. Simulations approximated that 0.3% of the servings were contaminated with >10(4) CFU/g of L. monocytogenes at the time of consumption. The estimated mean risk associated with the consumption of deli meats for the intermediate-age population was approximately 7 deaths per 10(11) servings. Food handling in homes increased the estimated mean mortality by 10(6)-fold. Of all the home food-handling practices modeled, inadequate storage, particularly refrigeration temperatures, provided the greatest contribution to increased risk. The impact of cross-contamination in the home was considerably less. Adherence to USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service recommendations for consumer handling of ready-to-eat foods substantially reduces the risk of listeriosis.

Lunar Phases and Emergency Department Visits for Renal Colic Due to Ureteral Calculus.

PubMed

Yang, Andy W; Johnson, Justin D; Fronczak, Carolyn M; LaGrange, Chad A

2016-01-01

Urolithiasis affects an estimated 5% of the population and the lifetime risk of passing a stone in the urinary tract is estimated to be 8-10%. Urinary calculus formation is highly variable and while certain risk factors such as age, gender, seasonality, anatomic abnormality, and metabolic diseases have been identified, not much is known regarding the association of environmental factors such as lunar phases on renal colic. We conducted a retrospective study to test the hypothesis that full moon phase is an environmental factor associated for increased emergency department (ED) visits for renal colic due to ureteral calculus. We analyzed 559 renal colic diagnoses by the ED at the University of Nebraska Medical Center in a 24-month period and compared them with corresponding lunar phases as well as supermoon events. The lunar phases were defined as full moon ± two days, new moon ± two days, and the days in-between as normal days according to the lunar calendar. Supermoon event dates were obtained from NASA. 90 cases (16.1%) were diagnosed during full moon phase, 89 cases (15.9%) were diagnosed during new moon phase, and 380 cases (68.0%) were diagnosed during normal days. The incidence of renal colic showed no statistically significant association with lunar phases or supermoon events. In this retrospective longitudinal study with adequate power, neither full moon phase nor supermoon event exhibited an association with increased renal colic diagnoses due to ureteral calculus by the ED at the University of Nebraska Medical Center.

Coordinated single-phase control scheme for voltage unbalance reduction in low voltage network.

PubMed

Pullaguram, Deepak; Mishra, Sukumar; Senroy, Nilanjan

2017-08-13

Low voltage (LV) distribution systems are typically unbalanced in nature due to unbalanced loading and unsymmetrical line configuration. This situation is further aggravated by single-phase power injections. A coordinated control scheme is proposed for single-phase sources, to reduce voltage unbalance. A consensus-based coordination is achieved using a multi-agent system, where each agent estimates the averaged global voltage and current magnitudes of individual phases in the LV network. These estimated values are used to modify the reference power of individual single-phase sources, to ensure system-wide balanced voltages and proper power sharing among sources connected to the same phase. Further, the high X / R ratio of the filter, used in the inverter of the single-phase source, enables control of reactive power, to minimize voltage unbalance locally. The proposed scheme is validated by simulating a LV distribution network with multiple single-phase sources subjected to various perturbations.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis of European and Asian-ancestry samples identifies three novel loci associated with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Chen, D T; Jiang, X; Akula, N; Shugart, Y Y; Wendland, J R; Steele, C J M; Kassem, L; Park, J-H; Chatterjee, N; Jamain, S; Cheng, A; Leboyer, M; Muglia, P; Schulze, T G; Cichon, S; Nöthen, M M; Rietschel, M; McMahon, F J; Farmer, A; McGuffin, P; Craig, I; Lewis, C; Hosang, G; Cohen-Woods, S; Vincent, J B; Kennedy, J L; Strauss, J

2013-02-01

Meta-analyses of bipolar disorder (BD) genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several genome-wide significant signals in European-ancestry samples, but so far account for little of the inherited risk. We performed a meta-analysis of ∼750,000 high-quality genetic markers on a combined sample of ∼14,000 subjects of European and Asian-ancestry (phase I). The most significant findings were further tested in an extended sample of ∼17,700 cases and controls (phase II). The results suggest novel association findings near the genes TRANK1 (LBA1), LMAN2L and PTGFR. In phase I, the most significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9834970 near TRANK1, was significant at the P=2.4 × 10(-11) level, with no heterogeneity. Supportive evidence for prior association findings near ANK3 and a locus on chromosome 3p21.1 was also observed. The phase II results were similar, although the heterogeneity test became significant for several SNPs. On the basis of these results and other established risk loci, we used the method developed by Park et al. to estimate the number, and the effect size distribution, of BD risk loci that could still be found by GWAS methods. We estimate that >63,000 case-control samples would be needed to identify the ∼105 BD risk loci discoverable by GWAS, and that these will together explain <6% of the inherited risk. These results support previous GWAS findings and identify three new candidate genes for BD. Further studies are needed to replicate these findings and may potentially lead to identification of functional variants. Sample size will remain a limiting factor in the discovery of common alleles associated with BD.

The development and evaluation of the Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Paediatrics (STAMP©) for use by healthcare staff.

PubMed

McCarthy, H; Dixon, M; Crabtree, I; Eaton-Evans, M J; McNulty, H

2012-08-01

The early identification of malnutrition and nutrition risk through nutrition screening is common practice in adult clinical care but, in children, this has been hampered by the lack of an appropriate nutrition screening tool. The present study aimed to develop and evaluate a simple, child-specific nutrition screening tool for administration by non-nutrition healthcare professionals. In a two-phase observational study, significant predictors of nutrition risk were identified using a structured questionnaire. These were then combined to produce a nutrition screening tool. For evaluation purposes, the reliability, sensitivity and specificity of the newly-developed Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Paediatrics (STAMP(©)) were estimated by comparing the classification of nutrition risk using the tool with that determined by a full nutritional assessment by a registered dietitian. A total of 122 children were recruited for development phase and a separate cohort of 238 children was recruited for the evaluation phase. Low percentile weight for age, reported weight loss, discrepancy between weight and height percentile and recently changed appetite were all identified as predictors of nutrition risk. These predictors, together with the expected nutrition risk of clinical diagnoses, were combined to produce STAMP(©). Evaluation of STAMP(©) demonstrated fair to moderate reliability in identifying nutrition risk compared to the nutrition risk classification determined by a registered dietitian (κ = 0.541; 95% confidence interval = 0.461-0.621). Sensitivity and specificity were estimated at 70% (51-84%) and 91% (86-94%), respectively. The present study describes the development and evaluation of a new nutrition screening tool specifically for use in a UK general paediatric inpatient population. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2012 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

An exploration of the utility of mathematical modeling predicting fatigue from sleep/wake history and circadian phase applied in accident analysis and prevention: the crash of Comair Flight 5191.

PubMed

Pruchnicki, Shawn A; Wu, Lora J; Belenky, Gregory

2011-05-01

On 27 August 2006 at 0606 eastern daylight time (EDT) at Bluegrass Airport in Lexington, KY (LEX), the flight crew of Comair Flight 5191 inadvertently attempted to take off from a general aviation runway too short for their aircraft. The aircraft crashed killing 49 of the 50 people on board. To better understand this accident and to aid in preventing similar accidents, we applied mathematical modeling predicting fatigue-related degradation in performance for the Air Traffic Controller on-duty at the time of the crash. To provide the necessary input to the model, we attempted to estimate circadian phase and sleep/wake histories for the Captain, First Officer, and Air Traffic Controller. We were able to estimate with confidence the circadian phase for each. We were able to estimate with confidence the sleep/wake history for the Air Traffic Controller, but unable to do this for the Captain and First Officer. Using the sleep/wake history estimates for the Air Traffic Controller as input, the mathematical modeling predicted moderate fatigue-related performance degradation at the time of the crash. This prediction was supported by the presence of what appeared to be fatigue-related behaviors in the Air Traffic Controller during the 30 min prior to and in the minutes after the crash. Our modeling results do not definitively establish fatigue in the Air Traffic Controller as a cause of the accident, rather they suggest that had he been less fatigued he might have detected Comair Flight 5191's lining up on the wrong runway. We were not able to perform a similar analysis for the Captain and First Officer because we were not able to estimate with confidence their sleep/wake histories. Our estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian rhythm phase for the Air Traffic Controller might generalize to other air traffic controllers and to flight crew operating in the early morning hours at LEX. Relative to other times of day, the modeling results suggest an elevated risk of fatigue-related error, incident, or accident in the early morning due to truncated sleep from the early start and adverse circadian phase from the time of day. This in turn suggests that fatigue mitigation targeted to early morning starts might reduce fatigue risk. In summary, this study suggests that mathematical models predicting performance from sleep/wake history and circadian phase are (1) useful in retrospective accident analysis provided reliable sleep/wake histories are available for the accident personnel and, (2) useful in prospective fatigue-risk identification, mitigation, and accident prevention. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual transmission risk in first-time and repeat blood donations in Zimbabwe: implications on blood safety.

PubMed

Mapako, Tonderai; Mvere, David A; Chitiyo, McLeod E; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

2013-10-01

National Blood Service Zimbabwe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk management strategy includes screening and discarding of first-time donations, which are collected in blood packs without an anticoagulant (dry pack). To evaluate the impact of discarding first-time donations on blood safety the HIV prevalence, incidence, and residual risk in first-time and repeat donations (wet packs) were compared. Donor data from 2002 to 2010 were retrieved from a centralized national electronic donor database and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was used to compare HIV prevalence with relative risk (RR), and the RR point estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) are reported. Trend analysis was done using Cochran-Armitage trend test. HIV residual risk estimates were determined using published residual risk estimation models. Over the 9 years the overall HIV prevalence estimates are 1.29% (n = 116,058) and 0.42% (n = 434,695) for first-time and repeat donations, respectively. The overall RR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9-3.3; p < 0.0001). The overall mean residual transmission risk of HIV window phase donations in first-time was 1:7384 (range, 1:11,308-1:5356) and in repeat donors it was 1:5496 (range, 1:9943-1:3347). The significantly high HIV prevalence estimates recorded in first-time over repeat donations is indicative of the effectiveness of the HIV risk management strategy. However, comparable residual transmission risk estimates in first-time and repeat donors point to the need to further review the risk management strategies. Given the potential wastage of valuable resources, future studies should focus on the cost-effectiveness and utility of screening and discarding first-time donations. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

Assessing the Variability of Heavy Metal Concentrations in Liquid-Solid Two-Phase and Related Environmental Risks in the Weihe River of Shaanxi Province, China

PubMed Central

Song, Jinxi; Yang, Xiaogang; Zhang, Junlong; Long, Yongqing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Taifan

2015-01-01

Accurate estimation of the variability of heavy metals in river water and the hyporheic zone is crucial for pollution control and environmental management. The biotoxicities and potential ecological risks of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd) in a solid-liquid two-phase system were estimated using the Geo-accumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Assessment and Quality Standard Index methods in the Weihe River of Shaanxi Province, China. Water and sediment samples were collected from five study sites during spring, summer and winter, 2013. The dominant species in the streambed sediments were chironomids and flutter earthworm, whose bioturbation mainly ranged from 0 to 20 cm. The concentrations of heavy metals in surface water and pore water varied obviously in spring and summer. The degrees of concentration of Cu and Cd in spring and summer were higher than the U.S. water quality Criteria Maximum Concentrations. Furthermore, the biotoxicities of Pb and Zn demonstrated season-spatial variations. The concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd in spring and winter were significantly higher than those in summer, and the pollution levels also varied obviously in different layers of the sediments. Moreover, the pollution level of Cd was the most serious, as estimated by all three assessment methods. PMID:26193293

Is febrile neutropenia prophylaxis with granulocyte-colony stimulating factors economically justified for adjuvant TC chemotherapy in breast cancer?

PubMed

Skedgel, Chris; Rayson, Daniel; Younis, Tallal

2016-01-01

Febrile neutropenia (FN) during adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with morbidity, mortality risk, and substantial cost, and subsequent chemotherapy dose reductions may result in poorer outcomes. Patients at high risk of, or who develop FN, often receive prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSF). We investigated whether different prophylaxis strategies with G-CSF offered favorable value-for-money. We developed a decision model to estimate the short- and long-term costs and outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of women with breast cancer receiving adjuvant taxotere + cyclophosphamide (TC) chemotherapy. The short-term phase estimated upfront costs and FN risks with adjuvant TC chemotherapy without G-CSF prophylaxis (i.e., chemotherapy dose reductions) as well as with secondary and primary G-CSF prophylaxis strategies. The long-term phase estimated the expected costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for patients who completed adjuvant TC chemotherapy with or without one or more episodes of FN. Secondary G-CSF was associated with lower costs and greater QALY gains than a no G-CSF strategy. Primary G-CSF appears likely to be cost-effective relative to secondary G-CSF at FN rates greater than 28%, assuming some loss of chemotherapy efficacy at lower dose intensities. The cost-effectiveness of primary vs. secondary G-CSF was sensitive to FN risk and mortality, and loss of chemotherapy efficacy following FN. Secondary G-CSF is more effective and less costly than a no G-CSF strategy. Primary G-CSF may be justified at higher willingness-to-pay thresholds and/or higher FN risks, but this threshold FN risk appears to be higher than the 20% rate recommended by current clinical guidelines.

Instructor perceptions of the accident likelihood faced by recently trained glider pilots.

PubMed

Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

2011-12-01

U.K. glider pilots with less than 10 h of solo flying time have been shown to have the highest accident rate and be most vulnerable to accidents during the 'final approach' phase. There were 58 gliding instructors who were asked to indicate what experience level they thought was associated with the highest accident rate and provide the reason behind their estimate. They were also asked to rank six flight phases by the relative probability of accidents to inexperienced pilots. The mean estimate for the accident peak was 296.3 h as pilot-in-command (SD = 337.9) with no instructor giving a figure of less than 10 h. Common reasons for these estimates were 'over-confidence', 'risk-taking', or 'complacency'. Instructors also ranked six flight phases by the likelihood of an accident being caused by inexperienced pilots during that phase. Despite the approach phase having the highest objective accident probability, it was only ranked fifth by instructors, indicating an underestimate of the danger it presents to newly trained pilots. The results suggest that instructors do not appreciate the high accident likelihood of early solo pilots or the main dangers they face. This has implications for the decisions made when sending pilots solo.

Mountaineer Commercial Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Project Topical Report: Preliminary Public Design Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guy Cerimele

2011-09-30

This Preliminary Public Design Report consolidates for public use nonproprietary design information on the Mountaineer Commercial Scale Carbon Capture & Storage project. The report is based on the preliminary design information developed during the Phase I - Project Definition Phase, spanning the time period of February 1, 2010 through September 30, 2011. The report includes descriptions and/or discussions for: (1) DOE's Clean Coal Power Initiative, overall project & Phase I objectives, and the historical evolution of DOE and American Electric Power (AEP) sponsored projects leading to the current project; (2) Alstom's Chilled Ammonia Process (CAP) carbon capture retrofit technology andmore » the carbon storage and monitoring system; (3) AEP's retrofit approach in terms of plant operational and integration philosophy; (4) The process island equipment and balance of plant systems for the CAP technology; (5) The carbon storage system, addressing injection wells, monitoring wells, system monitoring and controls logic philosophy; (6) Overall project estimate that includes the overnight cost estimate, cost escalation for future year expenditures, and major project risks that factored into the development of the risk based contingency; and (7) AEP's decision to suspend further work on the project at the end of Phase I, notwithstanding its assessment that the Alstom CAP technology is ready for commercial demonstration at the intended scale.« less

Assessing the Financial Value of Patient Engagement: A Quantitative Approach from CTTI's Patient Groups and Clinical Trials Project.

PubMed

Levitan, Bennett; Getz, Kenneth; Eisenstein, Eric L; Goldberg, Michelle; Harker, Matthew; Hesterlee, Sharon; Patrick-Lake, Bray; Roberts, Jamie N; DiMasi, Joseph

2018-03-01

While patient groups, regulators, and sponsors are increasingly considering engaging with patients in the design and conduct of clinical development programs, sponsors are often reluctant to go beyond pilot programs because of uncertainty in the return on investment. We developed an approach to estimate the financial value of patient engagement. Expected net present value (ENPV) is a common technique that integrates the key business drivers of cost, time, revenue, and risk into a summary metric for project strategy and portfolio decisions. We assessed the impact of patient engagement on ENPV for a typical oncology development program entering phase 2 or phase 3. For a pre-phase 2 project, the cumulative impact of a patient engagement activity that avoids one protocol amendment and improves enrollment, adherence, and retention is an increase in net present value (NPV) of $62MM ($65MM for pre-phase 3) and an increase in ENPV of $35MM ($75MM for pre-phase 3). Compared with an investment of $100,000 in patient engagement, the NPV and ENPV increases can exceed 500-fold the investment. This ENPV increase is the equivalent of accelerating a pre-phase 2 product launch by 2½ years (1½ years for pre-phase 3). Risk-adjusted financial models can assess the impact of patient engagement. A combination of empirical data and subjective parameter estimates shows that engagement activities with the potential to avoid protocol amendments and/or improve enrollment, adherence, and retention may add considerable financial value. This approach can help sponsors assess patient engagement investment decisions.

Assessing the Financial Value of Patient Engagement

PubMed Central

Levitan, Bennett; Getz, Kenneth; Eisenstein, Eric L.; Goldberg, Michelle; Harker, Matthew; Hesterlee, Sharon; Patrick-Lake, Bray; Roberts, Jamie N.; DiMasi, Joseph

2017-01-01

Background: While patient groups, regulators, and sponsors are increasingly considering engaging with patients in the design and conduct of clinical development programs, sponsors are often reluctant to go beyond pilot programs because of uncertainty in the return on investment. We developed an approach to estimate the financial value of patient engagement. Methods: Expected net present value (ENPV) is a common technique that integrates the key business drivers of cost, time, revenue, and risk into a summary metric for project strategy and portfolio decisions. We assessed the impact of patient engagement on ENPV for a typical oncology development program entering phase 2 or phase 3. Results: For a pre–phase 2 project, the cumulative impact of a patient engagement activity that avoids one protocol amendment and improves enrollment, adherence, and retention is an increase in net present value (NPV) of $62MM ($65MM for pre–phase 3) and an increase in ENPV of $35MM ($75MM for pre–phase 3). Compared with an investment of $100,000 in patient engagement, the NPV and ENPV increases can exceed 500-fold the investment. This ENPV increase is the equivalent of accelerating a pre–phase 2 product launch by 2½ years (1½ years for pre–phase 3). Conclusions: Risk-adjusted financial models can assess the impact of patient engagement. A combination of empirical data and subjective parameter estimates shows that engagement activities with the potential to avoid protocol amendments and/or improve enrollment, adherence, and retention may add considerable financial value. This approach can help sponsors assess patient engagement investment decisions. PMID:29714515

Schizophrenia susceptibility and NMDA-receptor mediated signalling: an association study involving 32 tagSNPs of DAO, DAOA, PPP3CC, and DTNBP1 genes

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent studies supported associations between four NMDA-receptor-mediated signalling genes (D-amino acid oxidase, DAO; D-amino acid oxidase activator, DAOA; protein phosphatase 3 catalytic subunit gamma isoform, PPP3CC; dystrobrevin-binding protein 1, DTNBP1) and schizophrenia susceptibility, even though with contrasting results. Methods In an attempt to replicate these findings for the first time in an Italian population, a panel of 32 tagSNPs was analysed in a representative case-control sample involving 879 subjects. Results An association in the allele frequency was observed for the estimated PPP3CC CAG triplotype in the SNP window rs4872499 T/C-rs11780915 A/G-rs13271367 G/A (pcorrect = 0.001). Similarly, the clustered genotype frequencies of the estimated/phased CAG triplotype differed between cases and controls (p = 0.004), with the carriers having a higher frequency in the control population (p = 0.002, odd ratio OR = 0.59, 95% confident interval CI: 0.43-0.82). Following the phenotypic dissection strategy, the analysis of single SNPs evidenced a protective effect in males of rs11780915 and rs13271367 in PPP3CC gene (pcorrect = 0.02, pcorrect = 0.04 respectively). Moreover the estimated/phased GT diplotype (rs2070586A/G-rs3741775G/T) carriers of the DAO gene were more highly represented in female controls (p = 0.017, OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.37-0.90), as were the estimated/phased CAG triplotype carriers of the PPP3CC gene in females (p = 0.01, OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.32-0.87). In addition, we performed an interaction analysis, and a 66% (p = 0.003, OR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.17-0.70) lower risk of developing schizophrenia for female (CAG + GT) carriers versus non-CAG or -GT carriers was observed. For DTNBP1, we found a protective effect in males for the rs6459409 (pcorrect = 0.02) and the estimated/phased CT diplotype (rs6459409-rs9476886) carriers (p = 3x10-4, OR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.30-0.70). In relation to diagnostic subtypes, the estimated/phased DAO GT diplotype and PPP3CC CAG triplotype female carriers were found to show relative risk ratio (RRR) values of 0.52 and 0.54 lower risk for a paranoid phenotype respectively. Conclusions Although the results are preliminary and needed replication in a larger sample, this study suggests that NMDA receptor-mediated signalling genes (DAO, PPP3CC, DTNBP1) might be involved in schizophrenia pathogenic mechanisms related to gender. PMID:23497497

Estimation and mapping of wet and dry mercury deposition across northeastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, E.K.; Vanarsdale, A.; Keeler, G.J.; Chalmers, A.; Poissant, L.; Kamman, N.C.; Brulotte, R.

2005-01-01

Whereas many ecosystem characteristics and processes influence mercury accumulation in higher trophic-level organisms, the mercury flux from the atmosphere to a lake and its watershed is a likely factor in potential risk to biota. Atmospheric deposition clearly affects mercury accumulation in soils and lake sediments. Thus, knowledge of spatial patterns in atmospheric deposition may provide information for assessing the relative risk for ecosystems to exhibit excessive biotic mercury contamination. Atmospheric mercury concentrations in aerosol, vapor, and liquid phases from four observation networks were used to estimate regional surface concentration fields. Statistical models were developed to relate sparsely measured mercury vapor and aerosol concentrations to the more commonly measured mercury concentration in precipitation. High spatial resolution deposition velocities for different phases (precipitation, cloud droplets, aerosols, and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM)) were computed using inferential models. An empirical model was developed to estimate gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) deposition. Spatial patterns of estimated total mercury deposition were complex. Generally, deposition was higher in the southwest and lower in the northeast. Elevation, land cover, and proximity to urban areas modified the general pattern. The estimated net GEM and RGM fluxes were each greater than or equal to wet deposition in many areas. Mercury assimilation by plant foliage may provide a substantial input of methyl-mercury (MeHg) to ecosystems. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

The TrialNet Natural History Study of the Development of Type 1 Diabetes: objectives, design, and initial results.

PubMed

Mahon, Jeffrey L; Sosenko, Jay M; Rafkin-Mervis, Lisa; Krause-Steinrauf, Heidi; Lachin, John M; Thompson, Clinton; Bingley, Polly J; Bonifacio, Ezio; Palmer, Jerry P; Eisenbarth, George S; Wolfsdorf, Joseph; Skyler, Jay S

2009-04-01

TrialNet's goal to test preventions for type 1 diabetes has created an opportunity to gain new insights into the natural history of pre-type 1 diabetes. The TrialNet Natural History Study (NHS) will assess the predictive value of existing and novel risk markers for type 1 diabetes and will find subjects for prevention trials. The NHS is a three-phase, prospective cohort study. In phase 1 (screening), pancreatic autoantibodies (glutamic acid decarboxylase, insulin, ICA-512, and islet cell antibodies) are measured. Phase 2 (baseline risk assessment) includes oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) in antibody-positive subjects and estimation of 5-yr diabetes risks according to the OGTT and number of confirmed positive antibody tests. Phase 3 (follow-up risk assessments) requires OGTTs every 6 months. In phases 2 and 3, samples are collected for future tests of T-lymphocyte function, autoantibody isotypes, RNA gene expression, and proteomics. The primary outcome is diabetes onset. Of 12 636 relatives screened between March 2004 and December 2006, 605 (4.8%) were positive for at least one biochemical antibody. Of these, 322 were confirmed antibody positive and completed phase 2, of whom 296 subjects were given preliminary 5-yr diabetes risks of <25% (n = 132), > or =25% (n = 36), and > or =50% (n = 128) where the latter two categories represent different subjects based on number of confirmed positive antibodies (2, > or =25%; 3 or more, > or =50%) and/or an abnormal OGTT (> or =50%). The NHS is identifying potential prevention trial subjects and is assembling a large cohort that will provide new natural history information about pre-type 1 diabetes. Follow-up to diabetes will help establish the biological significance and clinical value of novel type 1 diabetes risk markers.

REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainties in the numerical estimates. In 2006, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences released a report on the health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation. Cosponsored by the EPA and several other Federal agencies, Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR VII Phase 2 (BEIR VII) primarily addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. In the draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (White Paper), ORIA proposed changes in EPA’s methodology for estimating radiogenic cancers, based on the contents of BEIR VII and some ancillary information. For the most part, it proposed to adopt the models and methodology recommended in BEIR VII; however, certain modifications and expansions are considered to be desirable or necessary for EPA’s purposes. EPA sought advice from the Agency’s Science Advisory Board on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions in the Advisory on EPA’s Draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (record # 83044). The SAB issued its Advisory on Jan. 31, 2008 (EPA-SAB-08-

Understanding cost growth during operations of planetary missions: An explanation of changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeill, J. F.; Chapman, E. L.; Sklar, M. E.

In the development of project cost estimates for interplanetary missions, considerable focus is generally given to the development of cost estimates for the development of ground, flight, and launch systems, i.e., Phases B, C, and D. Depending on the project team, efforts expended to develop cost estimates for operations (Phase E) may be relatively less rigorous than that devoted to estimates for ground and flight systems development. Furthermore, the project team may be challenged to develop a solid estimate of operations cost in the early stages of mission development, e.g., Concept Study Report or Systems Requirement Review (CSR/SRR), Preliminary Design Review (PDR), as mission specific peculiarities that impact cost may not be well understood. In addition, a methodology generally used to develop Phase E cost is engineering build-up, also known as “ grass roots” . Phase E can include cost and schedule risks that are not anticipated at the time of the major milestone reviews prior to launch. If not incorporated into the engineering build-up cost method for Phase E, this may translate into an estimation of the complexity of operations and overall cost estimates that are not mature and at worse, insufficient. As a result, projects may find themselves with thin reserves during cruise and on-orbit operations or project overruns prior to the end of mission. This paper examines a set of interplanetary missions in an effort to better understand the reasons for cost and staffing growth in Phase E. The method used in the study is discussed as well as the major findings summarized as the Phase E Explanation of Change (EoC). Research for the study entailed the review of project materials, including Estimates at Completion (EAC) for Phase E and staffing profiles, major project milestone reviews, e.g., CSR, PDR, Critical Design Review (CDR), the interviewing of select project and mission management, and review of Phase E replan materials. From this work, a detai- ed picture is constructed of why cost grew during the operations phase, even to the level of specific events in the life of the missions. As a next step, the Phase E EoC results were gleaned and synthesized to produce leading indicators, i.e., what may be identifiable signs of cost and staffing growth that may be present as early as PDR or CDR. Both a qualitative and quantitative approach was used to determine leading indicators. These leading indicators will be reviewed and a practical method for their use will be discussed.

Incorporating High-Throughput Exposure Predictions With Dosimetry-Adjusted In Vitro Bioactivity to Inform Chemical Toxicity Testing

PubMed Central

Wetmore, Barbara A.; Wambaugh, John F.; Allen, Brittany; Ferguson, Stephen S.; Sochaski, Mark A.; Setzer, R. Woodrow; Houck, Keith A.; Strope, Cory L.; Cantwell, Katherine; Judson, Richard S.; LeCluyse, Edward; Clewell, Harvey J.; Thomas, Russell S.; Andersen, Melvin E.

2015-01-01

We previously integrated dosimetry and exposure with high-throughput screening (HTS) to enhance the utility of ToxCast HTS data by translating in vitro bioactivity concentrations to oral equivalent doses (OEDs) required to achieve these levels internally. These OEDs were compared against regulatory exposure estimates, providing an activity-to-exposure ratio (AER) useful for a risk-based ranking strategy. As ToxCast efforts expand (ie, Phase II) beyond food-use pesticides toward a wider chemical domain that lacks exposure and toxicity information, prediction tools become increasingly important. In this study, in vitro hepatic clearance and plasma protein binding were measured to estimate OEDs for a subset of Phase II chemicals. OEDs were compared against high-throughput (HT) exposure predictions generated using probabilistic modeling and Bayesian approaches generated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ExpoCast program. This approach incorporated chemical-specific use and national production volume data with biomonitoring data to inform the exposure predictions. This HT exposure modeling approach provided predictions for all Phase II chemicals assessed in this study whereas estimates from regulatory sources were available for only 7% of chemicals. Of the 163 chemicals assessed in this study, 3 or 13 chemicals possessed AERs < 1 or < 100, respectively. Diverse bioactivities across a range of assays and concentrations were also noted across the wider chemical space surveyed. The availability of HT exposure estimation and bioactivity screening tools provides an opportunity to incorporate a risk-based strategy for use in testing prioritization. PMID:26251325

Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

PubMed

Gorton, Dan

2014-09-01

The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Updating the Inductee Delivery Schedule.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-01

deployed forces at risk with the anticipated opposing forces for the expected level of combat intensity. An estimate of the number of individuals who...identification of shortfalls in critical skills. It prescribes the anticipation of requirements and return of personnel resources to military control as...with the Time Phased Force Deployment Data lists the forces that will be deployed over time. Each unit is then assigned to a risk group (forces

Preseason Workload Volume and High-Risk Periods for Noncontact Injury Across Multiple Australian Football League Seasons.

PubMed

Colby, Marcus J; Dawson, Brian; Heasman, Jarryd; Rogalski, Brent; Rosenberg, Michael; Lester, Leanne; Peeling, Peter

2017-07-01

Colby, MJ, Dawson, B, Heasman, J, Rogalski, B, Rosenberg, M, Lester, L, and Peeling, P. Preseason workload volume and high-risk periods for noncontact injury across multiple Australian Football League seasons. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1821-1829, 2017-The purpose of this study was to assess the association between preseason workloads and noncontact injury risk in Australian football players. Individual player injury data were recorded over 4 full seasons (2012-15) from one professional club. Noncontact injury incidence (per 1,000 "on legs" field training and game hours) was compared across the preseason, precompetition, and in-season phases to determine relative noncontact injury risk. Preseason workloads (global positioning system-derived total distance run and sprint distance) and individual (fixed) injury risk factors (age, previous injury history) were incorporated into the analysis. A generalized estimating equation with a binary logistic function modeled potential risk factors with noncontact injury for selected periods across the annual cycle. Odds ratios were calculated to determine the relative injury risk. The (preseason) precompetition phase (19.1 injuries per 1,000 hours) and (in-season) rounds 12-17 (16.0 injuries per 1,000 hours) resulted in the highest injury incidence. Low cumulative total distances in late preseason (<108 km) and precompetition (76-88 km) periods were associated with significantly (p ≤ 0.05) greater injury risk during the in-season phase. In conclusion, these results suggest players are at the greatest injury risk during the precompetition period, with low preseason cumulative workloads associated with increased in-season injury risk. Therefore, strength and conditioning staff should place particular emphasis on achieving at least moderate training loads during and leading into this phase, where competitive game play is first introduced.

Investigation of levels in ambient air near sources of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in Kanpur, India, and risk assessment due to inhalation.

PubMed

Goel, Anubha; Upadhyay, Kritika; Chakraborty, Mrinmoy

2016-05-01

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a class of organic compounds listed as persistent organic pollutant and have been banned for use under Stockholm Convention (1972). They were used primarily in transformers and capacitors, paint, flame retardants, plasticizers, and lubricants. PCBs can be emitted through the primary and secondary sources into the atmosphere, undergo long-range atmospheric transport, and hence have been detected worldwide. Reported levels in ambient air are generally higher in urban areas. Active sampling of ambient air was conducted in Kanpur, a densely populated and industrialized city in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, for detection of 32 priority PCBs, with the aim to determine the concentration in gas/particle phase and assess exposure risk. More than 50 % of PCBs were detected in air. Occurrence in particles was dominated by heavier congeners, and levels in gas phase were below detection. Levels determined in this study are lower than the levels in Coastal areas of India but are at par with other Asian countries where majority of sites chosen for sampling were urban industrial areas. Human health risk estimates through air inhalation pathway were made in terms of lifetime average daily dose (LADD) and incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR). The study found lower concentrations of PCBs than guideline values and low health risk estimates through inhalation within acceptable levels, indicating a minimum risk to the adults due to exposure to PCBs present in ambient air in Kanpur.

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

Integrating intelligent transportation systems within the transportation planning process : an interim handbook

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-06-01

The main purpose of Phase I of this project was to develop a methodology for predicting consequences of hazardous material (HM) crashes, such as injuries and property damage. An initial step in developing a risk assessment is to reliably estimate the...

Calculation of the Actual Cost of Engine Maintenance

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-03-01

Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) helps analysts store, retrieve, and analyze data; build cost models; analyze risk; time phase budgets; and...Tools ( ACEIT ).” n. pag. http://www.aceit.com/ 21 February 2003. • USAMC Logistics Support Activity (LOGSA). “Cost Analysis Strategy Assessment

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazardsmore » from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.« less

Carbon Capture and Sequestration from a Hydrogen Production Facility in an Oil Refinery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engels, Cheryl; Williams, Bryan, Valluri, Kiranmal; Watwe, Ramchandra

2010-06-21

The project proposed a commercial demonstration of advanced technologies that would capture and sequester CO2 emissions from an existing hydrogen production facility in an oil refinery into underground formations in combination with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). The project is led by Praxair, Inc., with other project participants: BP Products North America Inc., Denbury Onshore, LLC (Denbury), and Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology of The University of Texas at Austin. The project is located at the BP Refinery at Texas City, Texas. Praxair owns and operates a large hydrogen production facility within the refinery. Asmore » part of the project, Praxair would construct a CO2 capture and compression facility. The project aimed at demonstrating a novel vacuum pressure swing adsorption (VPSA) based technology to remove CO2 from the Steam Methane Reformers (SMR) process gas. The captured CO2 would be purified using refrigerated partial condensation separation (i.e., cold box). Denbury would purchase the CO2 from the project and inject the CO2 as part of its independent commercial EOR projects. The Gulf Coast Carbon Center at the Bureau of Economic Geology, a unit of University of Texas at Austin, would manage the research monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) project for the sequestered CO2, in conjunction with Denbury. The sequestration and associated MVA activities would be carried out in the Hastings field at Brazoria County, TX. The project would exceed DOE?s target of capturing one million tons of CO2 per year (MTPY) by 2015. Phase 1 of the project (Project Definition) is being completed. The key objective of Phase 1 is to define the project in sufficient detail to enable an economic decision with regard to proceeding with Phase 2. This topical report summarizes the administrative, programmatic and technical accomplishments completed in Phase 1 of the project. It describes the work relative to project technical and design activities (associated with CO2 capture technologies and geologic sequestration MVA), and Environmental Information Volume. Specific accomplishments of this Phase include: 1. Finalization of the Project Management Plan 2. Development of engineering designs in sufficient detail for defining project performance and costs 3. Preparation of Environmental Information Volume 4. Completion of Hazard Identification Studies 5. Completion of control cost estimates and preparation of business plan During the Phase 1 detailed cost estimate, project costs increased substantially from the previous estimate. Furthermore, the detailed risk assessment identified integration risks associated with potentially impacting the steam methane reformer operation. While the Phase 1 work identified ways to mitigate these integration risks satisfactorily from an operational perspective, the associated costs and potential schedule impacts contributed to the decision not to proceed to Phase 2. We have concluded that the project costs and integration risks at Texas City are not commensurate with the potential benefits of the project at this time.« less

Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

2010-01-01

Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

Manned Spacecraft Requirements for Materials and Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughn, Timothy P.

2006-01-01

A major cause of project failure can be attributed to an emphasized focus on end products and inadequate attention to resolving development risks during the initial phases of a project. The initial phases of a project, which we will call the "study period", are critical to determining project scope and costs, and can make or break most projects. If the requirements are not defined adequately, how can the scope be adequately determined, also how can the costs of the entire project be effectively estimated, and how can the risk of project success be accurately assessed? Using the proper material specifications and standards and incorporating these specifications and standards in the design process should be considered inherently crucial to the technical success of a project as just as importantly, crucial to the cost and schedule success. This paper will intertwine several important aspects or considerations for project success: 1) Characteristics of a "Good Material Requirement"; 2) Linking material requirements to the implementation of "Design for Manufacturing"; techniques and 3) The importance of decomposing materials requirements during the study phase/development phase to mitigate project risk for the maturation of technologies before the building of hardware.

Residual infestation and recolonization during urban Triatoma infestans Bug Control Campaign, Peru.

PubMed

Barbu, Corentin M; Buttenheim, Alison M; Pumahuanca, Maria-Luz Hancco; Calderón, Javier E Quintanilla; Salazar, Renzo; Carrión, Malwina; Rospigliossi, Andy Catacora; Chavez, Fernando S Malaga; Alvarez, Karina Oppe; Cornejo del Carpio, Juan; Náquira, César; Levy, Michael Z

2014-12-01

Chagas disease vector control campaigns are being conducted in Latin America, but little is known about medium-term or long-term effectiveness of these efforts, especially in urban areas. After analyzing entomologic data for 56,491 households during the treatment phase of a Triatoma infestans bug control campaign in Arequipa, Peru, during 2003-2011, we estimated that 97.1% of residual infestations are attributable to untreated households. Multivariate models for the surveillance phase of the campaign obtained during 2009-2012 confirm that nonparticipation in the initial treatment phase is a major risk factor (odds ratio [OR] 21.5, 95% CI 3.35-138). Infestation during surveillance also increased over time (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.15-2.09 per year). In addition, we observed a negative interaction between nonparticipation and time (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53-0.99), suggesting that recolonization by vectors progressively dilutes risk associated with nonparticipation. Although the treatment phase was effective, recolonization in untreated households threatens the long-term success of vector control.

Is the HIV epidemic stable among MSM in Mexico? HIV prevalence and risk behavior results from a nationally representative survey among men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M Arantxa; Romero, Martín; Conde-Glez, Carlos J; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G

2013-01-01

Recent evidence points to the apparent increase of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in different settings with concentrated epidemics, including the Latin American region. In 2011, Mexico implemented an ambitious HIV prevention program in all major cities, funded by the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The program was intended to strengthen the prevention response for the most at risk populations: MSM and injecting drug users. This paper presents the HIV prevalence results of a nationally representative baseline survey in 24 Mexican cities throughout the 5 regions in the country and reports the socio-demographic and sexual risk behaviors that predict the probability of infection. The survey was implemented in two phases. We first identified and characterized places where MSM gather in each city and then conducted in a second phase, a seroprevalence survey that included rapid HIV testing and a self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of HIV was estimated by adjusting for positive predicted value. We applied a probit model to estimate the probability of having a positive result from the HIV test as a function of socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported sexual risk behaviors. We found an overall HIV prevalence among MSM gathering in meeting points of 16.9% [95% CI: 15.6-18.3], significantly higher than previously reported estimates. Our regression results suggest that the risk of infection increases with age, with the number of sexual partners, and among those who play a receptive sexual role, and the risk decreases with higher education. Our findings suggest a higher HIV prevalence among MSM than previously acknowledged and that a significant regional variability exist throughout the country. These two findings combined, signal an important dynamic in the epidemic that should be better understood and promptly addressed with strong prevention efforts targeted at key populations.

Is the HIV Epidemic Stable among MSM in Mexico? HIV Prevalence and Risk Behavior Results from a Nationally Representative Survey among Men Who Have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M. Arantxa; Romero, Martín; Conde-Glez, Carlos J.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.

2013-01-01

Background Recent evidence points to the apparent increase of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in different settings with concentrated epidemics, including the Latin American region. In 2011, Mexico implemented an ambitious HIV prevention program in all major cities, funded by the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The program was intended to strengthen the prevention response for the most at risk populations: MSM and injecting drug users. This paper presents the HIV prevalence results of a nationally representative baseline survey in 24 Mexican cities throughout the 5 regions in the country and reports the socio-demographic and sexual risk behaviors that predict the probability of infection. Methods The survey was implemented in two phases. We first identified and characterized places where MSM gather in each city and then conducted in a second phase, a seroprevalence survey that included rapid HIV testing and a self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of HIV was estimated by adjusting for positive predicted value. We applied a probit model to estimate the probability of having a positive result from the HIV test as a function of socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported sexual risk behaviors. Results We found an overall HIV prevalence among MSM gathering in meeting points of 16.9% [95% CI: 15.6–18.3], significantly higher than previously reported estimates. Our regression results suggest that the risk of infection increases with age, with the number of sexual partners, and among those who play a receptive sexual role, and the risk decreases with higher education. Discussion Our findings suggest a higher HIV prevalence among MSM than previously acknowledged and that a significant regional variability exist throughout the country. These two findings combined, signal an important dynamic in the epidemic that should be better understood and promptly addressed with strong prevention efforts targeted at key populations. PMID:24039786

Comparative risk for cardiovascular diseases of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors vs. sulfonylureas in combination with metformin: Results of a two-phase study.

PubMed

Enders, Dirk; Kollhorst, Bianca; Engel, Susanne; Linder, Roland; Verheyen, Frank; Pigeot, Iris

2016-01-01

The aim was to assess whether the use of additional data from the Disease Management Program (DMP) diabetes mellitus type 2 to minimize the potential for residual confounding will alter the estimated risk of either myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke or heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes using sulfonylureas compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors in addition to metformin based on routine health care data. We conducted a nested two-phase case-control study using claims data of one German health insurance from 2004 to 2013 (phase 1) and data of the DMP from 2010 to 2013 (phase 2). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the combined cardiovascular event myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke or heart failure were calculated using a two-phase logistic regression. Phase 1 comprised 3179 patients (289 cases; 2890 controls) and phase 2 comprised 1968 patients (168 cases; 1800 controls). We observed an adjusted OR of 0.83 for the combined cardiovascular event (95% CI: 0.61-1.13). We observed a non-significantly reduced risk for cardiovascular diseases in patients using DPP-4 inhibitors compared to sulfonylureas in addition to metformin. This finding was not altered by the inclusion of additional information of the DMP in the analysis. However, due to the low power of this study, further studies are needed to reproduce our findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.

2014-11-01

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOTmore » intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.« less

Quantifying statistical relationships between commonly used in vitro models for estimating lead bioaccessibility.

PubMed

Yan, Kaihong; Dong, Zhaomin; Liu, Yanju; Naidu, Ravi

2016-04-01

Bioaccessibility to assess potential risks resulting from exposure to Pb-contaminated soils is commonly estimated using various in vitro methods. However, existing in vitro methods yield different results depending on the composition of the extractant as well as the contaminated soils. For this reason, the relationships between the five commonly used in vitro methods, the Relative Bioavailability Leaching Procedure (RBALP), the unified BioAccessibility Research Group Europe (BARGE) method (UBM), the Solubility Bioaccessibility Research Consortium assay (SBRC), a Physiologically Based Extraction Test (PBET), and the in vitro Digestion Model (RIVM) were quantified statistically using 10 soils from long-term Pb-contaminated mining and smelter sites located in Western Australia and South Australia. For all 10 soils, the measured Pb bioaccessibility regarding all in vitro methods varied from 1.9 to 106% for gastric phase, which is higher than that for intestinal phase: 0.2 ∼ 78.6%. The variations in Pb bioaccessibility depend on the in vitro models being used, suggesting that the method chosen for bioaccessibility assessment must be validated against in vivo studies prior to use for predicting risk. Regression studies between RBALP and SRBC, RBALP and RIVM (0.06) (0.06 g of soil in each tube, S:L ratios for gastric phase and intestinal phase are 1:375 and 1:958, respectively) showed that Pb bioaccessibility based on the three methods were comparable. Meanwhile, the slopes between RBALP and UBM, RBALP and RIVM (0.6) (0.6 g soil in each tube, S:L ratios for gastric phase and intestinal phase are 1:37.5 and 1:96, respectively) were 1.21 and 1.02, respectively. The findings presented in this study could help standardize in vitro bioaccessibility measurements and provide a scientific basis for further relating Pb bioavailability and soil properties.

Do 16 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Represent PAH Air Toxicity?

PubMed Central

Samburova, Vera; Zielinska, Barbara; Khlystov, Andrey

2017-01-01

Estimation of carcinogenic potency based on analysis of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) ranked by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the most popular approach within scientific and environmental air quality management communities. The majority of PAH monitoring projects have been focused on particle-bound PAHs, ignoring the contribution of gas-phase PAHs to the toxicity of PAH mixtures in air samples. In this study, we analyzed the results of 13 projects in which 88 PAHs in both gas and particle phases were collected from different sources (biomass burning, mining operation, and vehicle emissions), as well as in urban air. The aim was to investigate whether 16 particle-bound U.S. EPA priority PAHs adequately represented health risks of inhalation exposure to atmospheric PAH mixtures. PAH concentrations were converted to benzo(a)pyrene-equivalent (BaPeq) toxicity using the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach. TEFs of PAH compounds for which such data is not available were estimated using TEFs of close isomers. Total BaPeq toxicities (∑88BaPeq) of gas- and particle-phase PAHs were compared with BaPeq toxicities calculated for the 16 particle-phase EPA PAH (∑16EPABaPeq). The results showed that 16 EPA particle-bound PAHs underrepresented the carcinogenic potency on average by 85.6% relative to the total (gas and particle) BaPeq toxicity of 88 PAHs. Gas-phase PAHs, like methylnaphthalenes, may contribute up to 30% of ∑88BaPeq. Accounting for other individual non-EPA PAHs (i.e., benzo(e)pyrene) and gas-phase PAHs (i.e., naphthalene, 1- and 2-methylnaphthalene) will make the risk assessment of PAH-containing air samples significantly more accurate. PMID:29051449

Do 16 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Represent PAH Air Toxicity?

PubMed

Samburova, Vera; Zielinska, Barbara; Khlystov, Andrey

2017-08-15

Estimation of carcinogenic potency based on analysis of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) ranked by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the most popular approach within scientific and environmental air quality management communities. The majority of PAH monitoring projects have been focused on particle-bound PAHs, ignoring the contribution of gas-phase PAHs to the toxicity of PAH mixtures in air samples. In this study, we analyzed the results of 13 projects in which 88 PAHs in both gas and particle phases were collected from different sources (biomass burning, mining operation, and vehicle emissions), as well as in urban air. The aim was to investigate whether 16 particle-bound U.S. EPA priority PAHs adequately represented health risks of inhalation exposure to atmospheric PAH mixtures. PAH concentrations were converted to benzo(a)pyrene-equivalent (BaPeq) toxicity using the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach. TEFs of PAH compounds for which such data is not available were estimated using TEFs of close isomers. Total BaPeq toxicities (∑ 88 BaPeq) of gas- and particle-phase PAHs were compared with BaPeq toxicities calculated for the 16 particle-phase EPA PAH (∑ 16EPA BaPeq). The results showed that 16 EPA particle-bound PAHs underrepresented the carcinogenic potency on average by 85.6% relative to the total (gas and particle) BaPeq toxicity of 88 PAHs. Gas-phase PAHs, like methylnaphthalenes, may contribute up to 30% of ∑ 88 BaPeq. Accounting for other individual non-EPA PAHs (i.e., benzo(e)pyrene) and gas-phase PAHs (i.e., naphthalene, 1- and 2-methylnaphthalene) will make the risk assessment of PAH-containing air samples significantly more accurate.

[Effects of "host factor" bile on adaptability and virulence of Vibrios, foodborne potential pathogenic agents].

PubMed

Di Pietro, A; Picerno, I; Visalli, G; Chirico, C; Scoglio, M E

2004-01-01

In order to improve the knowledge of host/pathogenic agent interaction and to obtain a more careful estimation of risk related to ingestion of food contaminated by Vibrio spp., the effects of bile extracts have been studied. The growth of one V. fluvialis, two V. alginolyticus, and three V. parahaemolyticus strains, isolated from mollusks and crustaceans, has been determined to evaluate their adaptability to intestinal environment. Moreover, the expression of virulence factors responsible for the colonization, as bacterial "swarming mobility", biofilm production, adherence on epithelial cells and hydrophobicity, has been evaluated. Using a bile concentration of 1.5%, all examined strains showed a constant inhibitory effect, quite moderate in the first growth phases. Bile increased the "swarming mobility" and biofilm production; also the adherence was favored, but only after adaptation and during the early logarithmic phase. The decreased hydrophobicity could explain the reduction of adherence during the stationary phase. Studying the phenotypic expression of virulence factors in "minor vibrios" in the presence of bile, it was possible to extend the knowledge about their pathogenetic mechanisms owing to the ingestion of contaminated food. That permits a more careful estimation of risk related to the contamination, considering the high frequency of isolation of these species in some seafood.

Biocides in the Yangtze River of China: spatiotemporal distribution, mass load and risk assessment.

PubMed

Liu, Wang-Rong; Zhao, Jian-Liang; Liu, You-Sheng; Chen, Zhi-Feng; Yang, Yuan-Yuan; Zhang, Qian-Qian; Ying, Guang-Guo

2015-05-01

Nineteen biocides were investigated in the Yangtze River to understand their spatiotemporal distribution, mass loads and ecological risks. Fourteen biocides were detected, with the highest concentrations up to 166 ng/L for DEET in surface water, and 54.3 ng/g dry weight (dw) for triclocarban in sediment. The dominant biocides were DEET and methylparaben, with their detection frequencies of 100% in both phases. An estimate of 152 t/y of 14 biocides was carried by the Yangtze River to the East China Sea. The distribution of biocides in the aquatic environments was significantly correlated to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN), suggesting dominant input sources from domestic wastewater of the cities along the river. Risk assessment showed high ecological risks posed by carbendazim in both phases and by triclosan in sediment. Therefore, proper measures should be taken to reduce the input of biocides into the river systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials

PubMed Central

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A.; Wilkinson, Bethany E.; Wallenstein, Gene V.

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives. RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Methods. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. Results. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P < 0.001); >20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). MME reduction by month 3 was $70 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P < 0.001); ⩾23 and 13% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). Conclusion. Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. PMID:28460083

Estimation of the toxicity of sulfadiazine to Daphnia magna using negligible depletion hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction independent of ambient pH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kailin; Xu, Shiji; Zhang, Minghuan; Kou, Yahong; Zhou, Xiaomao; Luo, Kun; Hu, Lifeng; Liu, Xiangying; Liu, Min; Bai, Lianyang

2016-12-01

The toxicity of ionizable organic compounds to organisms depends on the pH, which therefore affects risk assessments of these compounds. However, there is not a direct chemical method to predict the toxicity of ionizable organic compounds. To determine whether hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction (HF-LPME) is applicable for this purpose, a three-phase HF-LPME was used to measure sulfadiazine and estimate its toxicity to Daphnia magna in solutions of different pH. The result indicated that the sulfadiazine concentrations measured by HF-LPME decreased with increasing pH, which is consistent with the decreased toxicity. The concentration immobilize 50% of the daphnids (EC50) in 48 h calculated from nominal concentrations increased from 11.93 to 273.5 mg L-1 as the pH increased from 6.0 to 8.5, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the EC50 values reached 104.6%. When calculated from the concentrations measured by HF-LPME (pH 12 acceptor phase), the EC50 ranged from 223.4 to 394.6 mg L-1, and the CV decreased to 27.60%, suggesting that the concentrations measured by HF-LPME can be used to estimate the toxicity of sulfadiazine irrespective of the solution pH.

Use of meteorological information in the risk analysis of a mixed wind farm and solar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengelkamp, H.-T.; Bendel, D.

2010-09-01

Use of meteorological information in the risk analysis of a mixed wind farm and solar power plant portfolio H.-T. Mengelkamp*,** , D. Bendel** *GKSS Research Center Geesthacht GmbH **anemos Gesellschaft für Umweltmeteorologie mbH The renewable energy industry has rapidly developed during the last two decades and so have the needs for high quality comprehensive meteorological services. It is, however, only recently that international financial institutions bundle wind farms and solar power plants and offer shares in these aggregate portfolios. The monetary value of a mixed wind farm and solar power plant portfolio is determined by legal and technical aspects, the expected annual energy production of each wind farm and solar power plant and the associated uncertainty of the energy yield estimation or the investment risk. Building an aggregate portfolio will reduce the overall uncertainty through diversification in contrast to the single wind farm/solar power plant energy yield uncertainty. This is similar to equity funds based on a variety of companies or products. Meteorological aspects contribute to the diversification in various ways. There is the uncertainty in the estimation of the expected long-term mean energy production of the wind and solar power plants. Different components of uncertainty have to be considered depending on whether the power plant is already in operation or in the planning phase. The uncertainty related to a wind farm in the planning phase comprises the methodology of the wind potential estimation and the uncertainty of the site specific wind turbine power curve as well as the uncertainty of the wind farm effect calculation. The uncertainty related to a solar power plant in the pre-operational phase comprises the uncertainty of the radiation data base and that of the performance curve. The long-term mean annual energy yield of operational wind farms and solar power plants is estimated on the basis of the actual energy production and it's relation to a climatologically stable long-term reference period. These components of uncertainty are of technical nature and based on subjective estimations rather than on a statistically sound data analysis. And then there is the temporal and spatial variability of the wind speed and radiation. Their influence on the overall risk is determined by the regional distribution of the power plants. These uncertainty components are calculated on the basis of wind speed observations and simulations and satellite derived radiation data. The respective volatility (temporal variability) is calculated from the site specific time series and the influence on the portfolio through regional correlation. For an exemplary portfolio comprising fourteen wind farms and eight solar power plants the annual mean energy production to be expected is calculated, the different components of uncertainty are estimated for each single wind farm and solar power plant and for the portfolio as a whole. The reduction in uncertainty (or risk) through bundling the wind farms and the solar power plants (the portfolio effect) is calculated by Markowitz' Modern Portfolio Theory. This theory is applied separately for the wind farm and the solar power plant bundle and for the combination of both. The combination of wind and photovoltaic assets clearly shows potential for a risk reduction. Even assets with a comparably low expected return can lead to a significant risk reduction depending on their individual characteristics.

Financial risk protection from social health insurance.

PubMed

Barnes, Kayleigh; Mukherji, Arnab; Mullen, Patrick; Sood, Neeraj

2017-09-01

This paper estimates the impact of social health insurance on financial risk by utilizing data from a natural experiment created by the phased roll-out of a social health insurance program for the poor in India. We estimate the distributional impact of insurance on of out-of-pocket costs and incorporate these results with a stylized expected utility model to compute associated welfare effects. We adjust the standard model, accounting for conditions of developing countries by incorporating consumption floors, informal borrowing, and asset selling which allow us to separate the value of financial risk reduction from consumption smoothing and asset protection. Results show that insurance reduces out-of-pocket costs, particularly in higher quantiles of the distribution. We find reductions in the frequency and amount of money borrowed for health reasons. Finally, we find that the value of financial risk reduction outweighs total per household costs of the insurance program by two to five times. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Fast and accurate genotype imputation in genome-wide association studies through pre-phasing

PubMed Central

Howie, Bryan; Fuchsberger, Christian; Stephens, Matthew; Marchini, Jonathan; Abecasis, Gonçalo R.

2013-01-01

Sequencing efforts, including the 1000 Genomes Project and disease-specific efforts, are producing large collections of haplotypes that can be used for genotype imputation in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Imputing from these reference panels can help identify new risk alleles, but the use of large panels with existing methods imposes a high computational burden. To keep imputation broadly accessible, we introduce a strategy called “pre-phasing” that maintains the accuracy of leading methods while cutting computational costs by orders of magnitude. In brief, we first statistically estimate the haplotypes for each GWAS individual (“pre-phasing”) and then impute missing genotypes into these estimated haplotypes. This reduces the computational cost because: (i) the GWAS samples must be phased only once, whereas standard methods would implicitly re-phase with each reference panel update; (ii) it is much faster to match a phased GWAS haplotype to one reference haplotype than to match unphased GWAS genotypes to a pair of reference haplotypes. This strategy will be particularly valuable for repeated imputation as reference panels evolve. PMID:22820512

Pollution characteristics, sources and lung cancer risk of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a new urban district of Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Xia, Zhonghuan; Wu, Minmin; Zhang, Qianqian; Sun, Shiqi; Yin, Jing; Zhou, Yanchi; Yang, Hao

2017-05-01

This paper focused on the pollution characteristics, sources and lung cancer risk of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a new urban district of Nanjing, China. Gaseous and aerosol PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5μm) samples were collected in spring of 2015. Sixteen PAHs were extracted and analyzed after sampling. Firstly, arithmetic mean concentrations of PAHs and BaP eq (benzo[a]pyrene equivalent) were calculated. The mean concentrations of PAHs were 29.26±14.13, 18.14±5.37 and 48.47±16.03ng/m 3 in gas phase, particle phase and both phases, respectively. The mean concentrations of BaP eq were 0.87±0.51, 2.71±2.17 and 4.06±2.31ng/m 3 in gas phase, particle phase and both phases, respectively. Secondly, diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis were adopted to identify the sources of PAHs and the outcomes were the same: traffic exhaust was the predominant source followed by fuel combustion and industrial process. Finally, incremental lung cancer risk (ILCR) induced by whole year inhalation exposure to PAHs for population groups of different age and gender were estimated based on a Monte Carlo simulation. ILCR values caused by particle phase PAHs were greater than those caused by gas phase PAHs. ILCR values for adults were greater than those for other age groups. ILCR values caused by total (gas+particle) PAHs for diverse groups were all greater than the significant level (l0 -6 ), indicating high potential lung cancer risk. Sensitivity analysis results showed that cancer slope factor for BaP inhalation exposure and BaP eq concentration had greater impact than body weight and inhalation rate on the ILCR. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Seropositivity of Toxoplasmosis in Pregnant Women by ELISA at Minia University Hospital, Egypt.

PubMed

Kamal, Amany M; Ahmed, Azza K; Abdellatif, Manal Z M; Tawfik, Mohamed; Hassan, Ebtesam E

2015-10-01

Toxoplasmosis is considered as an important risk factor for bad obstetric history (BOH) and one of the major causes of congenitally acquired infections. The present study aimed to estimate the seropositivity of T. gondii infection and associated risk factors among the attendees of high risk pregnancy and low risk antenatal care clinic of Minia Maternity and Pediatric University Hospital, Minia, Egypt. The study was carried out from April 2013 to April 2014 through 2 phases, the first phase was case-control study, and the second phase was follow-up with intervention. A total of 120 high risk pregnant and 120 normal pregnant females were submitted to clinical examinations, serological screening for anti-Toxoplasma IgM and IgG antibodies by ELISA, and an interview questionnaire. Seropositive cases were subjected to spiramycin course treatment. The results showed that the seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in high-risk pregnancy group was 50.8%, which was significantly different from that of normal pregnancy group (P<0.05). Analysis of seropositive women in relation to BOH showed that abortion was the commonest form of the pregnancy wastage (56.5%). The high prevalence of T. gondii seropositive cases was observed in the age group of 21-30 years. Post-delivery adverse outcome was observed in 80.3% of high-risk pregnancy group compared to 20% of normal pregnancy group. There was a statistically significant relationship between seropositivity and living in rural area, low socioeconomic level, and undercooked meat consumption (P<0.05). Serological screening for anti-Toxoplasma antibodies should be routine tests especially among high-risk pregnant women.

Limitations of self-care in reducing the risk of lymphedema: supportive-educative systems.

PubMed

Armer, Jane M; Brooks, Constance W; Stewart, Bob R

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine patient perceptions of limitations related to self-care measures to reduce lymphedema risk following breast cancer surgery. Secondary analysis of survey data from a companion study to a study piloting a behavioral-educational intervention was conducted to examine the specific limitations in performing lymphedema risk-reduction self-care measures. Findings suggest a more comprehensive approach is needed if patients are to engage in self-care actions to reduce lymphedema risk. Understanding the concepts of self-care and personal support interventions that include motivational interviewing can help nurses design supportive-educative care systems that assist patients in overcoming limitations in the estimative, transitional, and productive phases of self-care necessary to reduce lymphedema risk.

Arsine flow requirement for the flow modulation growth of high purity GaAs using adduct-grade triethylgallium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitts, B. L.; Emerson, D. T.; Shealy, J. R.

1992-10-01

Using arsine and triethylgallium with flow modulation, organometallic vapor phase epitaxy can produce high purity GaAs layers with V/III molar ratios near unity. We have estimated that under appropriate growth conditions the arsine incorporation efficiency into epitaxial GaAs can exceed 30%. The arsine flow requirement for obtaining good morphology has been identified over a range of substrate temperatures using adduct-grade triethylgallium. The process described reduces the environmental impact and life safety risk of the hydride based organometallic vapor phase epitaxial method.

Residual Infestation and Recolonization during Urban Triatoma infestans Bug Control Campaign, Peru1

PubMed Central

Buttenheim, Alison M.; Pumahuanca, Maria-Luz Hancco; Calderón, Javier E. Quintanilla; Salazar, Renzo; Carrión, Malwina; Rospigliossi, Andy Catacora; Chavez, Fernando S. Malaga; Alvarez, Karina Oppe; Cornejo del Carpio, Juan; Náquira, César; Levy, Michael Z.

2014-01-01

Chagas disease vector control campaigns are being conducted in Latin America, but little is known about medium-term or long-term effectiveness of these efforts, especially in urban areas. After analyzing entomologic data for 56,491 households during the treatment phase of a Triatoma infestans bug control campaign in Arequipa, Peru, during 2003–2011, we estimated that 97.1% of residual infestations are attributable to untreated households. Multivariate models for the surveillance phase of the campaign obtained during 2009–2012 confirm that nonparticipation in the initial treatment phase is a major risk factor (odds ratio [OR] 21.5, 95% CI 3.35–138). Infestation during surveillance also increased over time (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.15–2.09 per year). In addition, we observed a negative interaction between nonparticipation and time (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53–0.99), suggesting that recolonization by vectors progressively dilutes risk associated with nonparticipation. Although the treatment phase was effective, recolonization in untreated households threatens the long-term success of vector control. PMID:25423045

Development and validation of a generic finite element vehicle buck model for the analysis of driver rib fractures in real life nearside oblique frontal crashes.

PubMed

Iraeus, Johan; Lindquist, Mats

2016-10-01

Frontal crashes still account for approximately half of all fatalities in passenger cars, despite several decades of crash-related research. For serious injuries in this crash mode, several authors have listed the thorax as the most important. Computer simulation provides an effective tool to study crashes and evaluate injury mechanisms, and using stochastic input data, whole populations of crashes can be studied. The aim of this study was to develop a generic buck model and to validate this model on a population of real-life frontal crashes in terms of the risk of rib fracture. The study was conducted in four phases. In the first phase, real-life validation data were derived by analyzing NASS/CDS data to find the relationship between injury risk and crash parameters. In addition, available statistical distributions for the parameters were collected. In the second phase, a generic parameterized finite element (FE) model of a vehicle interior was developed based on laser scans from the A2MAC1 database. In the third phase, model parameters that could not be found in the literature were estimated using reverse engineering based on NCAP tests. Finally, in the fourth phase, the stochastic FE model was used to simulate a population of real-life crashes, and the result was compared to the validation data from phase one. The stochastic FE simulation model overestimates the risk of rib fracture, more for young occupants and less for senior occupants. However, if the effect of underestimation of rib fractures in the NASS/CDS material is accounted for using statistical simulations, the risk of rib fracture based on the stochastic FE model matches the risk based on the NASS/CDS data for senior occupants. The current version of the stochastic model can be used to evaluate new safety measures using a population of frontal crashes for senior occupants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genotype-Based Association Mapping of Complex Diseases: Gene-Environment Interactions with Multiple Genetic Markers and Measurement Error in Environmental Exposures

PubMed Central

Lobach, Irvna; Fan, Ruzone; Carroll, Raymond T.

2011-01-01

With the advent of dense single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, population-based association studies have become the major tools for identifying human disease genes and for fine gene mapping of complex traits. We develop a genotype-based approach for association analysis of case-control studies of gene-environment interactions in the case when environmental factors are measured with error and genotype data are available on multiple genetic markers. To directly use the observed genotype data, we propose two genotype-based models: genotype effect and additive effect models. Our approach offers several advantages. First, the proposed risk functions can directly incorporate the observed genotype data while modeling the linkage disequihbrium information in the regression coefficients, thus eliminating the need to infer haplotype phase. Compared with the haplotype-based approach, an estimating procedure based on the proposed methods can be much simpler and significantly faster. In addition, there is no potential risk due to haplotype phase estimation. Further, by fitting the proposed models, it is possible to analyze the risk alleles/variants of complex diseases, including their dominant or additive effects. To model measurement error, we adopt the pseudo-likelihood method by Lobach et al. [2008]. Performance of the proposed method is examined using simulation experiments. An application of our method is illustrated using a population-based case-control study of association between calcium intake with the risk of colorectal adenoma development. PMID:21031455

Initial Steps to inform selection of continuation cognitive therapy or fluoxetine for higher risk responders to cognitive therapy for recurrent major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Vittengl, Jeffrey R; Anna Clark, Lee; Thase, Michael E; Jarrett, Robin B

2017-07-01

Responders to acute-phase cognitive therapy (A-CT) for major depressive disorder (MDD) often relapse or recur, but continuation-phase cognitive therapy (C-CT) or fluoxetine reduces risks for some patients. We tested composite moderators of C-CT versus fluoxetine's preventive effects to inform continuation treatment selection. Responders to A-CT for MDD judged to be at higher risk for relapse due to unstable or partial remission (N=172) were randomized to 8 months of C-CT or fluoxetine with clinical management and assessed, free from protocol treatment, for 24 additional months. Pre-continuation-treatment characteristics that in survival analyses moderated treatments' effects on relapse over 8 months of continuation-phase treatment (residual symptoms and negative temperament) and on relapse/recurrence over the full observation period's 32 months (residual symptoms and age) were combined to estimate the potential advantage of C-CT versus fluoxetine for individual patients. Assigning patients to optimal continuation treatment (i.e., to C-CT or fluoxetine, depending on patients' pre-continuation-treatment characteristics) resulted in absolute reduction of relapse or recurrence risk by 16-21% compared to the other non-optimal treatment. Although these novel results require replication before clinical application, selecting optimal continuation treatment (i.e., personalizing treatment) for higher risk A-CT responders may decrease risks of MDD relapse and recurrence substantively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Field measurement and estimate of gaseous and particle pollutant emissions from cooking and space heating processes in rural households, northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuanchen; Shen, Guofeng; Liu, Weijian; Du, Wei; Su, Shu; Duan, Yonghong; Lin, Nan; Zhuo, Shaojie; Wang, Xilong; Xing, Baoshan; Tao, Shu

2016-01-01

Pollutant emissions into outdoor air from cooking and space heating processes with various solid fuels were measured, and daily household emissions were estimated from the kitchen performance tests. The burning of honeycomb briquette had the lowest emission factors, while the use of wood produced the highest pollutants. Daily emissions from space heating were significantly higher than those from cooking, and the use of honeycomb briquette for cooking and raw coal chunk for space heating reduces 28%, 24% and 25% for CO, PM10 and PM2.5, compared to wood for cooking and peat for space heating. Much higher emissions were observed during the initial phase than the stable phase due to insufficient air supply and lower combustion temperature at the beginning of burning processes. However, more mass percent of fine particles formed in the later high temperature stable burning phase may increase potential inhalation exposure risks.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application.

PubMed

Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Boué, Géraldine

2018-04-01

The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the brioche case-study illustrating here a quality application. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Mrozinski, Joe; Fox, George

2011-01-01

NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

Estimation of the toxicity of sulfadiazine to Daphnia magna using negligible depletion hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction independent of ambient pH

PubMed Central

Liu, Kailin; Xu, Shiji; Zhang, Minghuan; Kou, Yahong; Zhou, Xiaomao; Luo, Kun; Hu, Lifeng; Liu, Xiangying; Liu, Min; Bai, Lianyang

2016-01-01

The toxicity of ionizable organic compounds to organisms depends on the pH, which therefore affects risk assessments of these compounds. However, there is not a direct chemical method to predict the toxicity of ionizable organic compounds. To determine whether hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction (HF-LPME) is applicable for this purpose, a three-phase HF-LPME was used to measure sulfadiazine and estimate its toxicity to Daphnia magna in solutions of different pH. The result indicated that the sulfadiazine concentrations measured by HF-LPME decreased with increasing pH, which is consistent with the decreased toxicity. The concentration immobilize 50% of the daphnids (EC50) in 48 h calculated from nominal concentrations increased from 11.93 to 273.5 mg L−1 as the pH increased from 6.0 to 8.5, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the EC50 values reached 104.6%. When calculated from the concentrations measured by HF-LPME (pH 12 acceptor phase), the EC50 ranged from 223.4 to 394.6 mg L−1, and the CV decreased to 27.60%, suggesting that the concentrations measured by HF-LPME can be used to estimate the toxicity of sulfadiazine irrespective of the solution pH. PMID:28004779

Stroke survivors in Nigeria: A door-to-door prevalence survey from the Niger Delta region.

PubMed

Ezejimofor, Martinsixtus C; Uthman, Olalekan A; Maduka, Omosivie; Ezeabasili, Aloysius C; Onwuchekwa, Arthur C; Ezejimofor, Benedeth C; Asuquo, Eme; Chen, Yen-Fu; Stranges, Saverio; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin

2017-01-15

The burden of stroke has been projected to increase in low-and middle-income countries due to the ongoing epidemiological transition. However, community-based stroke prevalence studies are sparse in sub-Saharan Africa particularly in Nigeria. This study aimed to provide a comparative estimate of the prevalence of stroke survivors in the rural Niger Delta region. A three-phased door-to-door survey was conducted using WHO modified instruments. In the first-phase, 2028 adults (≥18years) participants randomly selected from two rural communities were screened by trained health research assistants for probable stroke. In the second phase, suspected cases were screened with stroke-specific tool. Positive cases were made to undergo complete neurological evaluation by two study neurologist in phase-three. Stroke diagnosis was based on clinical evaluation using WHO criteria. Overall, 27 (8 first-ever and 19 recurrent cases) stroke survivors with crude prevalence of 13.31/1000 (95% CI, 8.32-18.31) and a non-significant difference in prevalence between the two study communities were found, (P=0.393I). In addition, age-adjusted prevalence of stroke survivors was 14.6/1000 person, about 7-folds higher than previous estimates outside the Niger Delta region. The prevalence increases significantly with advancing in age, P<0·001. Among others, hypertension (92.59%) was the commonest risk factor and comorbidity found. Improved stroke surveillance and care, as well as better management of the underlying risk factors, primarily undetected or uncontrolled high blood pressure, remains a public health priority. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Circadian Role in Daily Pattern of Cardiovascular Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Hu, Kun; Chen, Zhi; Hilton, Michael F.; Stanley, H. Eugene; Shea, Steven A.

2004-03-01

Numerous epidemiological studies demonstrate that sudden cardiac death, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, and stroke have a 24-hour daily pattern with a broad peak between 9-11am. Such a daily pattern in cardiovascular risk could be attributable to external factors, such as the daily behavior patterns, including sleep-wake cycles and activity levels, or internal factors, such as the endogenous circadian pacemaker. Findings of significant alternations in the temporal organization and nonlinear properties of heartbeat fluctuations with disease and with sleep-wake transitions raise the intriguing possibility that changes in the mechanism of control associated with behavioral sleep-wake transition may be responsible for the increased cardiac instability observed in particular circadian phases. Alternatively, we hypothesize that there is a circadian clock, independent of the sleep-wake cycle, which affects the cardiac dynamics leading to increased cardiovascular risk. We analyzed continuous recordings from healthy subjects during 7 cycles of forced desynchrony routine wherein subjects' sleep-wake cycles are adjusted to 28 hours so that their behaviors occur across all circadian phases. Heartbeat data were divided into one-hour segments. For each segment, we estimated the correlations and the nonlinear properties of the heartbeat fluctuations at the corresponding circadian phase. Since the sleep and wake contributions are equally weighted in our experiment, a change of the properties of the heartbeat dynamics with circadian phase suggest a circadian rhythm. We show significant circadian-mediated alterations in the correlation and nonlinear properties of the heartbeat resembling those observed in patients with heart failure. Remarkably, these dynamical alterations are centered at 60 degrees circadian phase, coinciding with the 9-11am window of cardiac risk.

Waste Feed Delivery System Phase 1 Preliminary Reliability and Availability and Maintainability Analysis [SEC 1 and 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARLSON, A.B.

The document presents updated results of the preliminary reliability, availability, maintainability analysis performed for delivery of waste feed from tanks 241-AZ-101 and 241-AN-105 to British Nuclear Fuels Limited, inc. under the Tank Waste Remediation System Privatization Contract. The operational schedule delay risk is estimated and contributing factors are discussed.

Associations between dairy protein intake and body weight and risk markers of diabetes and CVD during weight maintenance.

PubMed

Bendtsen, Line Q; Lorenzen, Janne K; Larsen, Thomas M; van Baak, Marleen; Papadaki, Angeliki; Martinez, J Alfredo; Handjieva-Darlenska, Teodora; Jebb, Susan A; Kunešová, Marie; Pfeiffer, Andreas F H; Saris, Wim H M; Astrup, Arne; Raben, Anne

2014-03-14

Dairy products have previously been reported to be associated with beneficial effects on body weight and metabolic risk markers. Moreover, primary data from the Diet, Obesity and Genes (DiOGenes) study indicate a weight-maintaining effect of a high-protein-low-glycaemic index diet. The objective of the present study was to examine putative associations between consumption of dairy proteins and changes in body weight and metabolic risk markers after weight loss in obese and overweight adults. Results were based on secondary analyses of data obtained from overweight and obese adults who completed the DiOGenes study. The study consisted of an 8-week weight-loss phase and a 6-month weight-maintenance (WM) phase, where the subjects were given five different diets varying in protein content and glycaemic index. In the present study, data obtained from all the subjects were pooled. Dairy protein intake was estimated from 3 d dietary records at two time points (week 4 and week 26) during the WM phase. Body weight and metabolic risk markers were determined at baseline (week -9 to -11) and before and at the end of the WM phase (week 0 and week 26). Overall, no significant associations were found between consumption of dairy proteins and changes in body weight and metabolic risk markers. However, dairy protein intake tended to be negatively associated with body weight gain (P=0·08; β=-0·17), but this was not persistent when controlled for total protein intake, which indicates that dairy protein adds no additional effect to the effect of total protein. Therefore, the present study does not report that dairy proteins are more favourable than other proteins for body weight regulation.

Neuroblastoma: clinical and biological approach to risk stratification and treatment.

PubMed

Tolbert, Vanessa P; Matthay, Katherine K

2018-05-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common extra-cranial solid tumor of childhood and the most common in the first year of life. It is a unique malignancy in that infants often present with either localized or metastatic disease that can spontaneously regress without intervention while older children can succumb to the disease after months to years of arduous therapy. Given this wide range of outcomes, the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group was created to stratify patients based on presenting characteristics and tumor biology in order to guide intensity of treatment strategies. The goal has been to decrease therapy for low-risk patients to avoid long-term complications while augmenting and targeting therapies for high-risk patients to improve overall survival. The international risk stratification depends on age, stage, histology, MYCN gene amplification status, tumor cell ploidy and segmental chromosomal abnormalities. Treatment for asymptomatic low-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 98% is often observation or surgical resection alone, whereas intermediate-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 90% require moderate doses of response-adjusted chemotherapy along with resection. High-risk patients undergo multiple cycles of combination chemotherapy before surgery, followed by consolidation with myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and local radiation and finally immunotherapy with differentiation therapy as maintenance phase. With this approach, outcome for patients with neuroblastoma has improved, as the field continues to expand efforts in more targeted therapies for high-risk patients.

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V

2017-08-01

RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P < 0.001); >20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). MME reduction by month 3 was $70 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P < 0.001); ⩾23 and 13% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

Incorporating High-Throughput Exposure Predictions with ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We previously integrated dosimetry and exposure with high-throughput screening (HTS) to enhance the utility of ToxCast™ HTS data by translating in vitro bioactivity concentrations to oral equivalent doses (OEDs) required to achieve these levels internally. These OEDs were compared against regulatory exposure estimates, providing an activity-to-exposure ratio (AER) useful for a risk-based ranking strategy. As ToxCast™ efforts expand (i.e., Phase II) beyond food-use pesticides towards a wider chemical domain that lacks exposure and toxicity information, prediction tools become increasingly important. In this study, in vitro hepatic clearance and plasma protein binding were measured to estimate OEDs for a subset of Phase II chemicals. OEDs were compared against high-throughput (HT) exposure predictions generated using probabilistic modeling and Bayesian approaches generated by the U.S. EPA ExpoCast™ program. This approach incorporated chemical-specific use and national production volume data with biomonitoring data to inform the exposure predictions. This HT exposure modeling approach provided predictions for all Phase II chemicals assessed in this study whereas estimates from regulatory sources were available for only 7% of chemicals. Of the 163 chemicals assessed in this study, three or 13 chemicals possessed AERs <1 or <100, respectively. Diverse bioactivities y across a range of assays and concentrations was also noted across the wider chemical space su

Towards Canine Rabies Elimination in South-Eastern Tanzania: Assessment of Health Economic Data.

PubMed

Hatch, B; Anderson, A; Sambo, M; Maziku, M; Mchau, G; Mbunda, E; Mtema, Z; Rupprecht, C E; Shwiff, S A; Nel, L

2017-06-01

An estimated 59 000 people die annually from rabies, keeping this zoonosis on the forefront of neglected diseases, especially in the developing world. Most deaths occur after being bitten by a rabid dog. Those exposed to a suspect rabid animal should receive appropriate post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) or risk death. However, vaccination of dogs to control and eliminate canine rabies at the source has been implemented in many places around the world. Here, we analysed the vaccination and cost data for one such campaign in the area surrounding and including Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and estimated the cost per dog vaccinated. We also estimated the cost of human PEP. We found that the cost per dog vaccinated ranged from $2.50 to $22.49 across districts and phases, with the phase average ranging from $7.30 to $11.27. These figures were influenced by over purchase of vaccine in the early phases of the programme and the significant costs associated with purchasing equipment for a programme starting from scratch. The cost per human PEP course administered was approximately $24.41, with the average patient receiving 2.5 of the recommended four vaccine doses per suspect bite. This study provides valuable financial insights into programme managers and policymakers working towards rabies elimination. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Hydrogen sulfide emission in sewer networks: a two-phase modeling approach to the sulfur cycle.

PubMed

Yongsiri, C; Vollertsen, J; Hvitved-Jacobsen, T

2004-01-01

Wherever transport of anaerobic wastewater occurs, potential problems associated with hydrogen sulfide in relation to odor nuisance, health risk and corrosion exist. Improved understanding of prediction of hydrogen sulfide emission into the sewer atmosphere is needed for better evaluation of such problems in sewer networks. A two-phase model for emission of hydrogen sulfide along stretches of gravity sewers is presented to estimate the occurrence of both sulfide in the water phase and hydrogen sulfide in the sewer atmosphere. The model takes into account air-water mass transfer of hydrogen sulfide and interactions with other processes in the sulfur cycle. Various emission scenarios are simulated to illustrate the release characteristics of hydrogen sulfide.

Use of an in vitro digestion method to estimate human bioaccessibility of Cd in vegetables grown in smelter-impacted soils: the influence of cooking.

PubMed

Pelfrêne, Aurélie; Waterlot, Christophe; Guerin, Annie; Proix, Nicolas; Richard, Antoine; Douay, Francis

2015-08-01

Metal contamination of urban soils and homegrown vegetables has caused major concern. Some studies showed that cadmium (Cd) was among the most significant hazards in kitchen garden soils and prolonged exposure to this metal could cause deleterious health effects in humans. In general, most risk assessment procedures are based on total concentrations of metals in vegetables. The present study assesses human bioaccessibility of Cd in vegetables cultivated in smelter-impacted kitchen garden soils. Seven vegetables (radish, lettuce, French bean, carrot, leek, tomato, and potato) were considered. Using the UBM protocol (unified BARGE bioaccessibility method), the bioaccessibility of Cd was measured in raw/cooked vegetables. A considerable amount of Cd was mobilized from raw vegetables during the digestion process (on average 85% in the gastric phase and 69% in the gastrointestinal phase), which could be attributed to a high uptake of Cd during the growth of the vegetables. Most Cd is accumulated in the vacuoles of plant cells, except what is absorbed by the cell wall, allowing Cd to be released from plant tissues under moderate conditions. Cooking by the steaming process generally increased the bioaccessibility of Cd in French bean, carrot, and leek. For potato, few or no significant differences of Cd bioaccessibility were observed after the steaming process, while the frying process strongly decreased bioaccessibility in both phases. The estimation of metal bioaccessibility in vegetables is helpful for human health risk assessment.

Risk Associated with the Release of Wolbachia-Infected Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes into the Environment in an Effort to Control Dengue.

PubMed

Murray, Justine V; Jansen, Cassie C; De Barro, Paul

2016-01-01

In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia pipientis into the mosquito Aedes aegypti to reduce its ability to transmit dengue fever due to life shortening and inhibition of viral replication effects. An analysis of risk was required before considering release of the modified mosquito into the environment. Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework were used to identify risk associated with the release of the modified mosquito. Individual and group expert elicitation was performed to identify potential hazards. A Bayesian network (BN) was developed to capture the relationship between hazards and the likelihood of events occurring. Risk was calculated from the expert likelihood estimates populating the BN and the consequence estimates elicited from experts. The risk model for "Don't Achieve Release" provided an estimated 46% likelihood that the release would not occur by a nominated time but generated an overall risk rating of very low. The ability to obtain compliance had the greatest influence on the likelihood of release occurring. The risk model for "Cause More Harm" provided a 12.5% likelihood that more harm would result from the release, but the overall risk was considered negligible. The efficacy of mosquito management had the most influence, with the perception that the threat of dengue fever had been eliminated, resulting in less household mosquito control, and was scored as the highest ranked individual hazard (albeit low risk). The risk analysis was designed to incorporate the interacting complexity of hazards that may affect the release of the technology into the environment. The risk analysis was a small, but important, implementation phase in the success of this innovative research introducing a new technology to combat dengue transmission in the environment.

Breast cancer risk in premenopausal women is inversely associated with consumption of broccoli, a source of isothiocyanates, but is not modified by GST genotype.

PubMed

Ambrosone, Christine B; McCann, Susan E; Freudenheim, Jo L; Marshall, James R; Zhang, Yueshang; Shields, Peter G

2004-05-01

The role of vegetable consumption in relation to breast cancer risk is controversial. Anticarcinogenic compounds may be present only in specific vegetables, thereby attenuating findings for total vegetable intake. Cruciferous vegetables contain precursors of isothiocyanates (ITCs), which may be chemopreventive through potent inhibition of phase I, and induction of phase II enzymes, such as glutathione S-transferases (GSTs). We investigated associations between consumption of cruciferous vegetables, sources of ITCs, and breast cancer risk, and potential modification of relations by GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes. Cases (n = 740) were Caucasian women with incident breast cancer identified from all major hospitals in Erie and Niagara counties. Community controls (n = 810) were frequency matched to cases by age and county. An in-depth interview including a validated FFQ was administered in person. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were used to estimate relative risks. Consumption of cruciferous vegetables, particularly broccoli, was marginally inversely associated with breast cancer risk in premenopausal women [4th quartile OR = 0.6, 95% CI (0.40-1.01), P = 0.058]. Associations were weaker or null among postmenopausal women. No significant effects of GST genotype on risk were observed in either menopausal group. These data indicate that cruciferous vegetables may play an important role in decreasing the risk of premenopausal breast cancer.

A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

2014-03-01

Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

Sustained low influenza vaccination in health care workers after H1N1 pandemic: a cross sectional study in an Italian health care setting for at-risk patients.

PubMed

Giannattasio, Antonietta; Mariano, Miriam; Romano, Roberto; Chiatto, Fabrizia; Liguoro, Ilaria; Borgia, Guglielmo; Guarino, Alfredo; Lo Vecchio, Andrea

2015-08-12

Despite consistent recommendations by all Public Health Authorities in support of annual influenza vaccination for at-risk categories, there is still a low uptake of influenza vaccine in these groups including health care workers (HCWs). Aim of this observational two-phase study was to estimate the immunization rates for influenza in four subsequent seasons and for pandemic H1N1 influenza in HCWs of a University Hospital, and to investigate its distribution pattern and the main determinants of immunization. Phase 1 data collection was performed in 2009-2010, during the peak of H1N1 pandemic. Phase 2 data collection, aimed to investigate seasonal influenza vaccination coverage in the three seasons after pandemic, was performed in 2012-2013. The overall H1N1 vaccination rate was derived by the Hospital immunization registry. In 2010, the personnel of three Departments (Infectious Diseases, Pediatrics and Gynecology/Obstetrics) completed a survey on influenza. A second-phase analysis was performed in 2012 to investigate influenza vaccination coverage in three consecutive seasons. The first-phase survey showed a low coverage for influenza in all categories (17 %), with the lowest rate in nurses (8.1 %). A total of 37 % of health care workers received H1N1 vaccine, with the highest rate among physicians and the lowest in nurses. H1N1 vaccination was closely related to the Department, being higher in the Department of Infectious Diseases (53.7 %) and Pediatrics (42.4 %) than in Gynecology/Obstetrics (8.3 %). The second-phase survey showed the lowest rate of influenza vaccination in 2012/13 season. The main reasons for not being vaccinated were "Unsure of the efficacy of vaccine" and "Feel not at-risk of getting influenza or its complications". Despite recommendations, influenza vaccine uptake remains poor. Immunization is largely perceived as a personal protection rather than a measure needed to prevent disease spreading to at-risk patients. Compulsory vaccination against influenza should be considered as a possible strategy, at least in health institutions where at-risk patients are admitted.

Architects and Design-Phase Cost Estimates: Design Professionals Should Reconsider the Value of Third-Party Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coakley, John

2010-01-01

Professional cost estimators are widely used by architects during the design phases of a project to provide preliminary cost estimates. These estimates may begin at the conceptual design phase and are prepared at regular intervals through the construction document phase. Estimating professionals are frequently tasked with "selling" the importance…

Quantitative risk assessment of listeriosis-associated deaths due to Listeria monocytogenes contamination of deli meats originating from manufacture and retail.

PubMed

Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Bukowski, Robert; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

2010-04-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of listeriosis-associated deaths attributable to Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ham and turkey formulated without and with growth inhibitors (GIs). Two contamination scenarios were investigated: (i) prepackaged deli meats with contamination originating solely from manufacture at a frequency of 0.4% (based on reported data) and (ii) retail-sliced deli meats with contamination originating solely from retail at a frequency of 2.3% (based on reported data). Using a manufacture-to-consumption risk assessment with product-specific growth kinetic parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate), reformulation with GIs was estimated to reduce human listeriosis deaths linked to ham and turkey by 2.8- and 9-fold, respectively, when contamination originated at manufacture and by 1.9- and 2.8-fold, respectively, for products contaminated at retail. Contamination originating at retail was estimated to account for 76 and 63% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated without GIs and for 83 and 84% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated with GIs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that storage temperature was the most important factor affecting the estimation of per annum relative risk. Scenario analyses suggested that reducing storage temperature in home refrigerators to consistently below 7 degrees C would greatly reduce the risk of human listeriosis deaths, whereas reducing storage time appeared to be less effective. Overall, our data indicate a critical need for further development and implementation of effective control strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes contamination at the retail level.

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix C - sequence quantification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix C generally describes the methods used to estimate accident sequence frequency values. Information is presented concerning the approach, example collection, failure data, candidate dominant sequences, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis.

Fuel-Flexible Gasification-Combustion Technology for Production of H2 and Sequestration-Ready CO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parag Kulkarni; Jie Guan; Raul Subia

In the near future, the nation will continue to rely on fossil fuels for electricity, transportation, and chemicals. It is necessary to improve both the process efficiency and environmental impact of fossil fuel utilization including greenhouse gas management. GE Global Research (GEGR) investigated an innovative fuel-flexible Unmixed Fuel Processor (UFP) technology with potential to produce H{sub 2}, power, and sequestration-ready CO{sub 2} from coal and other solid fuels. The UFP technology offers the long-term potential for reduced cost, increased process efficiency relative to conventional gasification and combustion systems, and near-zero pollutant emissions. GE was awarded a contract from U.S. DOEmore » NETL to investigate and develop the UFP technology. Work started on the Phase I program in October 2000 and on the Phase II effort in April 2005. In the UFP technology, coal, water and air are simultaneously converted into (1) hydrogen rich stream that can be utilized in fuel cells or turbines, (2) CO{sub 2} rich stream for sequestration, and (3) high temperature/pressure vitiated air stream to produce electricity in a gas turbine expander. The process produces near-zero emissions with an estimated efficiency higher than Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) process with conventional CO{sub 2} separation. The Phase I R&D program established the chemical feasibility of the major reactions of the integrated UFP technology through lab-, bench- and pilot-scale testing. A risk analysis session was carried out at the end of Phase I effort to identify the major risks in the UFP technology and a plan was developed to mitigate these risks in the Phase II of the program. The Phase II effort focused on three high-risk areas: economics, lifetime of solids used in the UFP process, and product gas quality for turbines (or the impact of impurities in the coal on the overall system). The economic analysis included estimating the capital cost as well as the costs of hydrogen and electricity for a full-scale UFP plant. These costs were benchmarked with IGCC polygen plants with similar level of CO{sub 2} capture. Based on the promising economic analysis comparison results (performed with the help from Worley Parsons), GE recommended a 'Go' decision in April 2006 to continue the experimental investigation of the UFP technology to address the remaining risks i.e. solids lifetime and the impact of impurities in the coal on overall system. Solids attrition and lifetime risk was addressed via bench-scale experiments that monitor solids performance over time and by assessing materials interactions at operating conditions. The product gas under the third reactor (high-temperature vitiated air) operating conditions was evaluated to assess the concentration of particulates, pollutants and other impurities relative to the specifications required for gas turbine feed streams. During this investigation, agglomeration of solids used in the UFP process was identified as a serious risk that impacts the lifetime of the solids and in turn feasibility of the UFP technology. The main causes of the solids agglomeration were the combination of oxygen transfer material (OTM) reduction at temperatures {approx}1000 C and interaction between OTM and CO{sub 2} absorbing material (CAM) at high operating temperatures (>1200 C). At the end of phase II, in March 2008, GEGR recommended a 'No-go' decision for taking the UFP technology to the next level of development, i.e. development of a 3-5 MW prototype system, at this time. GEGR further recommended focused materials development research programs on improving the performance and lifetime of solids materials used in UFP or chemical looping technologies. The scale-up activities would be recommended only after mitigating the risks involved with the agglomeration and overall lifetime of the solids. This is the final report for the phase II of the DOE-funded Vision 21 program entitled 'Fuel-Flexible Gasification-Combustion Technology for Production of H{sub 2} and Sequestration-Ready CO{sub 2}' (DOE Award No. DE-FC26-00NT40974). The report focuses on the major accomplishments and lessons learned in analyzing the risks of the novel UFP technology during Phase II of the DOE program.« less

Hepatitis C Testing Practices and Prevalence in a High-risk Urban Ambulatory Care Setting

PubMed Central

Southern, William N.; Drainoni, Mari-Lynn; Smith, Bryce D.; Christiansen, Cindy L.; McKee, Diane; Gifford, Allen L.; Weinbaum, Cindy M.; Thompson, Devin; Koppelman, Elisa; Maher, Stacia; Litwin, Alain H.

2010-01-01

Approximately 3.2 million persons are chronically infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the U.S; most are not aware of their infection. Our objectives were to examine HCV testing practices to determine which patient characteristics are associated with HCV testing and positivity, and to estimate the prevalence of HCV infection in a high-risk urban population. The study subjects were all patients included in the baseline phase of the Hepatitis C Assessment and Testing Project (HepCAT), a serial cross-sectional study of HCV screening strategies. We examined all patients with a clinic visit to Montefiore Medical Center from 1/1/08 to 2/29/08. Demographic information, laboratory data and ICD-9 diagnostic codes from 3/1/97 – 2/29/08 were extracted from the electronic medical record. Risk factors for HCV were defined based on birth date, ICD-9 codes and laboratory data. The prevalence of HCV infection was estimated assuming that untested subjects would test positive at the same rate as tested subjects, based on risk-factors. Of 9579 subjects examined, 3803 (39.7%) had been tested for HCV and 438 (11.5%) were positive. The overall prevalence of HCV infection was estimated to be 7.7%. Risk factors associated with being tested and anti-HCV positivity included: born in the high-prevalence birth-cohort (1945-64), substance abuse, HIV infection, alcohol abuse, diagnosis of cirrhosis, end-stage renal disease, and ALT elevation. In a high-risk urban population, a significant proportion of patients were tested for HCV and the prevalence of HCV infection was high. Physicians appear to use a risk-based screening strategy to identify HCV infection. PMID:20497311

Conservative Exposure Predictions for Rapid Risk Assessment of Phase-Separated Additives in Medical Device Polymers.

PubMed

Chandrasekar, Vaishnavi; Janes, Dustin W; Saylor, David M; Hood, Alan; Bajaj, Akhil; Duncan, Timothy V; Zheng, Jiwen; Isayeva, Irada S; Forrey, Christopher; Casey, Brendan J

2018-01-01

A novel approach for rapid risk assessment of targeted leachables in medical device polymers is proposed and validated. Risk evaluation involves understanding the potential of these additives to migrate out of the polymer, and comparing their exposure to a toxicological threshold value. In this study, we propose that a simple diffusive transport model can be used to provide conservative exposure estimates for phase separated color additives in device polymers. This model has been illustrated using a representative phthalocyanine color additive (manganese phthalocyanine, MnPC) and polymer (PEBAX 2533) system. Sorption experiments of MnPC into PEBAX were conducted in order to experimentally determine the diffusion coefficient, D = (1.6 ± 0.5) × 10 -11  cm 2 /s, and matrix solubility limit, C s  = 0.089 wt.%, and model predicted exposure values were validated by extraction experiments. Exposure values for the color additive were compared to a toxicological threshold for a sample risk assessment. Results from this study indicate that a diffusion model-based approach to predict exposure has considerable potential for use as a rapid, screening-level tool to assess the risk of color additives and other small molecule additives in medical device polymers.

A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.; Mancusi, L.

2014-11-01

Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

It's Only a Phase: Applying the 5 Phases of Clinical Trials to the NSCR Model Improvement Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgart, S. R.; Milder, C. M.; Chappell, L. J.; Semones, E. J.

2017-01-01

NASA limits astronaut radiation exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer (REID) at the upper 95% confidence level. Since astronauts approach this limit, it is important that the estimate of REID be as accurate as possible. The NASA Space Cancer Risk 2012 (NSCR-2012) model has been the standard for NASA's space radiation protection guidelines since its publication in 2013. The model incorporates elements from U.S. baseline statistics, Japanese atomic bomb survivor research, animal models, cellular studies, and radiation transport to calculate astronaut baseline risk of cancer and REID. The NSCR model is under constant revision to ensure emerging research is incorporated into radiation protection standards. It is important to develop guidelines, however, to determine what new research is appropriate for integration. Certain standards of transparency are necessary in order to assess data quality, statistical quality, and analytical quality. To this effect, all original source code and any raw data used to develop the code are required to confirm there are no errors which significantly change reported outcomes. It is possible to apply a clinical trials approach to select and assess the improvement concepts that will be incorporated into future iterations of NSCR. This poster describes the five phases of clinical trials research, pre-clinical research, and clinical research phases I-IV, explaining how each step can be translated into an appropriate NSCR model selection guideline.

New High Throughput Methods to Estimate Chemical ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has made many recent advances in high throughput bioactivity testing. However, concurrent advances in rapid, quantitative prediction of human and ecological exposures have been lacking, despite the clear importance of both measures for a risk-based approach to prioritizing and screening chemicals. A recent report by the National Research Council of the National Academies, Exposure Science in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy (NRC 2012) laid out a number of applications in chemical evaluation of both toxicity and risk in critical need of quantitative exposure predictions, including screening and prioritization of chemicals for targeted toxicity testing, focused exposure assessments or monitoring studies, and quantification of population vulnerability. Despite these significant needs, for the majority of chemicals (e.g. non-pesticide environmental compounds) there are no or limited estimates of exposure. For example, exposure estimates exist for only 7% of the ToxCast Phase II chemical list. In addition, the data required for generating exposure estimates for large numbers of chemicals is severely lacking (Egeghy et al. 2012). This SAP reviewed the use of EPA's ExpoCast model to rapidly estimate potential chemical exposures for prioritization and screening purposes. The focus was on bounded chemical exposure values for people and the environment for the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) Universe of Chemicals. In addition to exposure, the SAP

Variations of emission characterization of PAHs emitted from different utility boilers of coal-fired power plants and risk assessment related to atmospheric PAHs.

PubMed

Wang, Ruwei; Liu, Guijian; Zhang, Jiamei

2015-12-15

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) represent important source of atmospheric PAHs, however, their emission characterization are still largely unknown. In this work, the concentration, distribution and gas-particle partitioning of PM10- and gas-phase PAHs in flue gas emitted from different coal-fired utility boilers were investigated. Moreover, concentration and distribution in airborne PAHs from different functional areas of power plants were studied. People's inhalatory and dermal exposures to airborne PAHs at these sites were estimated and their resultant lung cancer and skin cancer risks were assessed. Results indicated that the boiler capacity and operation conditions have significant effect on PAH concentrations in both PM10 and gas phases due to the variation of combustion efficiency, whereas they take neglected effect on PAH distributions. The wet flue gas desulphurization (WFGD) takes significant effect on the scavenging of PAH in both PM10 and gas phases, higher scavenging efficiency were found for less volatile PAHs. PAH partitioning is dominated by absorption into organic matter and accompanied by adsorption onto PM10 surface. In addition, different partitioning mechanism is observed for individual PAHs, which is assumed arising from their chemical affinity and vapor pressure. Risk assessment indicates that both inhalation and dermal contact greatly contribute to the cancer risk for CFPP workers and nearby residents. People working in workshop are exposed to greater inhalation and dermal exposure risk than people living in nearby vicinity and working office. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Stakeholder Perceptions of Risk in Construction.

PubMed

Zhao, Dong; McCoy, Andrew P; Kleiner, Brian M; Mills, Thomas H; Lingard, Helen

2016-02-01

Safety management in construction is an integral effort and its success requires inputs from all stakeholders across design and construction phases. Effective risk mitigation relies on the concordance of all stakeholders' risk perceptions. Many researchers have noticed the discordance of risk perceptions among critical stakeholders in safe construction work, however few have provided quantifiable evidence describing them. In an effort to fill this perception gap, this research performs an experiment that investigates stakeholder perceptions of risk in construction. Data analysis confirms the existence of such discordance, and indicates a trend in risk likelihood estimation. With risk perceptions from low to high, the stakeholders are architects, contractors/safety professionals, and engineers. Including prior studies, results also suggest that designers have improved their knowledge in building construction safety, but compared to builders they present more difficultly in reaching a consensus of perception. Findings of this research are intended to be used by risk management and decision makers to reassess stakeholders' varying judgments when considering injury prevention and hazard assessment.

Stakeholder Perceptions of Risk in Construction

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dong; McCoy, Andrew P.; Kleiner, Brian M.; Mills, Thomas H.; Lingard, Helen

2015-01-01

Safety management in construction is an integral effort and its success requires inputs from all stakeholders across design and construction phases. Effective risk mitigation relies on the concordance of all stakeholders’ risk perceptions. Many researchers have noticed the discordance of risk perceptions among critical stakeholders in safe construction work, however few have provided quantifiable evidence describing them. In an effort to fill this perception gap, this research performs an experiment that investigates stakeholder perceptions of risk in construction. Data analysis confirms the existence of such discordance, and indicates a trend in risk likelihood estimation. With risk perceptions from low to high, the stakeholders are architects, contractors/safety professionals, and engineers. Including prior studies, results also suggest that designers have improved their knowledge in building construction safety, but compared to builders they present more difficultly in reaching a consensus of perception. Findings of this research are intended to be used by risk management and decision makers to reassess stakeholders’ varying judgments when considering injury prevention and hazard assessment. PMID:26441481

Application of ANFIS to Phase Estimation for Multiple Phase Shift Keying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, Jeffrey T.; Prasad, Nadipuram R.

2000-01-01

The paper discusses a novel use of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) for estimating phase in Multiple Phase Shift Keying (M-PSK) modulation. A brief overview of communications phase estimation is provided. The modeling of both general open-loop, and closed-loop phase estimation schemes for M-PSK symbols with unknown structure are discussed. Preliminary performance results from simulation of the above schemes are presented.

A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

PubMed

de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

2016-04-01

A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Bigler, Mark; Rogers, James H.

2014-01-01

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These risk assessments typically cover the concept phase of a DRM, i.e. when little more than a general idea of the mission is known and are used to help establish "best estimates" for proposed program and agency level risk requirements. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Bigler, Mark; Rogers, James H.

2015-01-01

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These risk assessments typically cover the concept phase of a DRM, i.e. when little more than a general idea of the mission is known and are used to help establish "best estimates" for proposed program and agency level risk requirements. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Huang, Ying; Gilbert, Peter B

2011-12-01

Recently a new definition of surrogate endpoint, the "principal surrogate," was proposed based on causal associations between treatment effects on the biomarker and on the clinical endpoint. Despite its appealing interpretation, limited research has been conducted to evaluate principal surrogates, and existing methods focus on risk models that consider a single biomarker. How to compare principal surrogate value of biomarkers or general risk models that consider multiple biomarkers remains an open research question. We propose to characterize a marker or risk model's principal surrogate value based on the distribution of risk difference between interventions. In addition, we propose a novel summary measure (the standardized total gain) that can be used to compare markers and to assess the incremental value of a new marker. We develop a semiparametric estimated-likelihood method to estimate the joint surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. This method accommodates two-phase sampling of biomarkers and is more widely applicable than existing nonparametric methods by incorporating continuous baseline covariates to predict the biomarker(s), and is more robust than existing parametric methods by leaving the error distribution of markers unspecified. The methodology is illustrated using a simulated example set and a real data set in the context of HIV vaccine trials. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Simplification and Transformation of ASTM F1292 Measurement Procedure for Fall Accident Injury Criteria

PubMed Central

KATO, Maki; SHIMODAIRA, Yoshie; SATO, Takeshi; IIDA, Hiromi

2014-01-01

Abstract: Protecting children from injuries caused by fall accidents from playground equipment is important. Therefore, measures toward minimizing the risk of fall accident injuries are required. The risk of injury can be evaluated using ASTM F1292. In this test, G-max and the HIC are used to estimate the risk of injury. However, the measurement procedure is too complicated for application to a large number of installed equipment. F1292 requires simplified by reducing the number of phases, even with a small risk of loss in accuracy. With this in mind, this study proposes a shortened measurement procedure and a transformation equation to estimate the risk as same as F1292. As the result of experiments, it was revealed that G-max and the HIC values for both procedures linearly increase with drop height. The differences in outcomes between the regression equations of the standardized procedure and those of the shortened procedure can be used as a correction value. They can be added to the value measured by the shortened procedure. This suggests that the combination of the shortened procedure and transformation equation would be equivalent to F1292, with the advantage of being more easily and efficiently applied to the evaluation of installed playground equipment. PMID:25088989

Simplification and transformation of ASTM F1292 measurement procedure for fall accident injury criteria.

PubMed

Kato, Maki; Shimodaira, Yoshie; Sato, Takeshi; Iida, Hiromi

2014-01-01

Protecting children from injuries caused by fall accidents from playground equipment is important. Therefore, measures toward minimizing the risk of fall accident injuries are required. The risk of injury can be evaluated using ASTM F1292. In this test, G-max and the HIC are used to estimate the risk of injury. However, the measurement procedure is too complicated for application to a large number of installed equipment. F1292 requires simplified by reducing the number of phases, even with a small risk of loss in accuracy. With this in mind, this study proposes a shortened measurement procedure and a transformation equation to estimate the risk as same as F1292. As the result of experiments, it was revealed that G-max and the HIC values for both procedures linearly increase with drop height. The differences in outcomes between the regression equations of the standardized procedure and those of the shortened procedure can be used as a correction value. They can be added to the value measured by the shortened procedure. This suggests that the combination of the shortened procedure and transformation equation would be equivalent to F1292, with the advantage of being more easily and efficiently applied to the evaluation of installed playground equipment.

Impact of Hydrogeological Uncertainty on Estimation of Environmental Risks Posed by Hydrocarbon Transportation Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, V.; Lauriola, I.; Bonvicini, S.; Cozzani, V.; Di Federico, V.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

2017-11-01

Ubiquitous hydrogeological uncertainty undermines the veracity of quantitative predictions of soil and groundwater contamination due to accidental hydrocarbon spills from onshore pipelines. Such predictions, therefore, must be accompanied by quantification of predictive uncertainty, especially when they are used for environmental risk assessment. We quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on quantitative forecasting of temporal evolution of two key risk indices, volumes of unsaturated and saturated soil contaminated by a surface spill of light nonaqueous-phase liquids. This is accomplished by treating the relevant uncertain parameters as random variables and deploying two alternative probabilistic models to estimate their effect on predictive uncertainty. A physics-based model is solved with a stochastic collocation method and is supplemented by a global sensitivity analysis. A second model represents the quantities of interest as polynomials of random inputs and has a virtually negligible computational cost, which enables one to explore any number of risk-related contamination scenarios. For a typical oil-spill scenario, our method can be used to identify key flow and transport parameters affecting the risk indices, to elucidate texture-dependent behavior of different soils, and to evaluate, with a degree of confidence specified by the decision-maker, the extent of contamination and the correspondent remediation costs.

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vouk, Mladen A.; Mcallister, David F.

1993-01-01

Strategies and tools for the testing, risk assessment and risk control of dependable software-based systems were developed. Part of this project consists of studies to enable the transfer of technology to industry, for example the risk management techniques for safety-concious systems. Theoretical investigations of Boolean and Relational Operator (BRO) testing strategy were conducted for condition-based testing. The Basic Graph Generation and Analysis tool (BGG) was extended to fully incorporate several variants of the BRO metric. Single- and multi-phase risk, coverage and time-based models are being developed to provide additional theoretical and empirical basis for estimation of the reliability and availability of large, highly dependable software. A model for software process and risk management was developed. The use of cause-effect graphing for software specification and validation was investigated. Lastly, advanced software fault-tolerance models were studied to provide alternatives and improvements in situations where simple software fault-tolerance strategies break down.

Moonlight avoidance in gerbils reveals a sophisticated interplay among time allocation, vigilance and state-dependent foraging

PubMed Central

Kotler, Burt P.; Brown, Joel; Mukherjee, Shomen; Berger-Tal, Oded; Bouskila, Amos

2010-01-01

Foraging animals have several tools for managing the risk of predation, and the foraging games between them and their predators. Among these, time allocation is foremost, followed by vigilance and apprehension. Together, their use influences a forager's time allocation and giving-up density (GUD) in depletable resource patches. We examined Allenby's gerbils (Gerbilus andersoni allenbyi) exploiting seed resource patches in a large vivarium under varying moon phases in the presence of a red fox (Vulpes vulpes). We measured time allocated to foraging patches electronically and GUDs from seeds left behind in resource patches. From these, we estimated handling times, attack rates and quitting harvest rates (QHRs). Gerbils displayed greater vigilance (lower attack rates) at brighter moon phases (full < wane < wax < new). Similarly, they displayed higher GUDs at brighter moon phases (wax > full > new > wane). Finally, gerbils displayed higher QHRs at new and waxing moon phases. Differences across moon phases not only reflect changing time allocation and vigilance, but changes in the state of the foragers and their marginal value of energy. Early in the lunar cycle, gerbils rely on vigilance and sacrifice state to avoid risk; later they defend state at the cost of increased time allocation; finally their state can recover as safe opportunities expand. In the predator–prey foraging game, foxes may contribute to these patterns of behaviours by modulating their own activity in response to the opportunities presented in each moon phase. PMID:20053649

Moonlight avoidance in gerbils reveals a sophisticated interplay among time allocation, vigilance and state-dependent foraging.

PubMed

Kotler, Burt P; Brown, Joel; Mukherjee, Shomen; Berger-Tal, Oded; Bouskila, Amos

2010-05-22

Foraging animals have several tools for managing the risk of predation, and the foraging games between them and their predators. Among these, time allocation is foremost, followed by vigilance and apprehension. Together, their use influences a forager's time allocation and giving-up density (GUD) in depletable resource patches. We examined Allenby's gerbils (Gerbilus andersoni allenbyi) exploiting seed resource patches in a large vivarium under varying moon phases in the presence of a red fox (Vulpes vulpes). We measured time allocated to foraging patches electronically and GUDs from seeds left behind in resource patches. From these, we estimated handling times, attack rates and quitting harvest rates (QHRs). Gerbils displayed greater vigilance (lower attack rates) at brighter moon phases (full < wane < wax < new). Similarly, they displayed higher GUDs at brighter moon phases (wax > full > new > wane). Finally, gerbils displayed higher QHRs at new and waxing moon phases. Differences across moon phases not only reflect changing time allocation and vigilance, but changes in the state of the foragers and their marginal value of energy. Early in the lunar cycle, gerbils rely on vigilance and sacrifice state to avoid risk; later they defend state at the cost of increased time allocation; finally their state can recover as safe opportunities expand. In the predator-prey foraging game, foxes may contribute to these patterns of behaviours by modulating their own activity in response to the opportunities presented in each moon phase.

Hybrid diversity method utilizing adaptive diversity function for recovering unknown aberrations in an optical system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Bruce H. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method of recovering unknown aberrations in an optical system includes collecting intensity data produced by the optical system, generating an initial estimate of a phase of the optical system, iteratively performing a phase retrieval on the intensity data to generate a phase estimate using an initial diversity function corresponding to the intensity data, generating a phase map from the phase retrieval phase estimate, decomposing the phase map to generate a decomposition vector, generating an updated diversity function by combining the initial diversity function with the decomposition vector, generating an updated estimate of the phase of the optical system by removing the initial diversity function from the phase map. The method may further include repeating the process beginning with iteratively performing a phase retrieval on the intensity data using the updated estimate of the phase of the optical system in place of the initial estimate of the phase of the optical system, and using the updated diversity function in place of the initial diversity function, until a predetermined convergence is achieved.

The 10-year trend of adult diabetes, prediabetes and associated risk factors in Tehran: Phases 1 and 4 of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

PubMed

Mahtab, Niroomand; Farzad, Hadaegh; Mohsen, Bahaeddini; Nakisa, Darvishi

Type 2 diabetes is a global problem with significant morbidity and healthcare costs. In this study, we aimed to determine the 10-year trend of diabetes, prediabetes and their risk factors in the adult urban population of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). In this cross-sectional study, we included all patients above 20 years of age who were registered in phases 1 and 4 of TLGS. Each phase had a 3-year duration. 4580 patients were recruited in each phase (916 patients in each age-group, including 3772 males and 5145 females). Random cluster sampling was used in phase 1 and convenience sampling was used in phase 4. Diabetes and glucose tolerance status were determined according to the 1991 criteria of the American Diabetes Association. In our five age groups, risk factors were compared, which included physical activity, waist circumference, body mass index, education, smoking, lipid profile and family history. Exclusion criteria were placement of an individual in the same age-group in the two phases and pregnancy. We calculated the prevalence of diabetes and dysglycemia in each age-group. Age-specific prevalence rates were determined. Prevalence of risk factors in the two phases were compared using chi-square test and Student t-test. Mann-Whitney U test was used to analyze the variables with non-normal distribution. In this study, 3976 individuals were recruited in phase 1 (2308 women and 1668 men; female to male ratio 1.38) and 4941 individuals were recruited in phase 4 (2837 women and 2104 men; female to male ratio 1.35). Prevalence of prediabetes in all age groups (except for the 30-39 years age-group) were increased in phase 4 compared to phase 1. Prevalence of known diabetes in all age groups were increased in phase 4 compared to phase 1, yet, the increase was significant only in the 30-39 and 60-69 years age groups (1.8% vs. 0.7% and 19.0% vs. 10.2%, respectively). Newly diagnosed diabetes was decreased in all age groups in phase 4, except for the 60-69 years age-group. The incidence of newly diagnosed diabetes in the 60-69 years age-group was significantly higher in phase 4 compared to the similar age-group of phase 1 (15.2% vs. 11.8%; p<0.001). Physical activity, body mass index, waist circumference (central obesity), general obesity, smoking (except for the 30-39 and 40-49 years age groups), and level of education were significantly higher in phase 4 compared to phase 1. Marriage rates were significantly lower in phase 4 compared to phase 1 across all studied age groups. We observed an increasing trend in the prevalence of diabetes over a 10-year period in TLGS. This is an accordance with estimates ​​in this field and highlights the need for education, prevention, treatment and control of diabetes. We also found increased rates of central and general obesity, smoking and divorce along with decreased marriage rates, which should be considered by the healthcare policymakers and state health officials as significant risk factors of diabetes. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for an Underground Blowout Scenario in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyagi, M.; Zulqarnain, M.

2017-12-01

Offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations, involve the use of some of the cutting edge and challenging technologies of the modern time. These technological complex operations involves the risk of major accidents as well, which have been demonstrated by disasters such as the explosion and fire on the UK production platform piper alpha, the Canadian semi-submersible drilling rig Ocean Ranger and the explosion and capsizing of Deepwater horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. By conducting Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), safety of various operations as well as their associated risks and significance during the entire life phase of an offshore project can be quantitatively estimated. In an underground blowout, the uncontrolled formation fluids from higher pressure formation may charge up shallower overlying low pressure formations or may migrate to sea floor. Consequences of such underground blowouts range from no visible damage at the surface to the complete loss of well, loss of drilling rig, seafloor subsidence or hydrocarbons discharged to the environment. These blowouts might go unnoticed until the over pressured sands, which are the result of charging from higher pressure reservoir due to an underground blowout. Further, engineering formulas used to estimate the fault permeability and thickness are very simple in nature and may add to uncertainty in the estimated parameters. In this study the potential of a deepwater underground blowout are assessed during drilling life phase of a well in Popeye-Genesis field reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico to estimate the time taken to charge a shallower zone to its leak-off test (LOT) value. Parametric simulation results for selected field case show that for relatively high permeability (k = 40mD) fault connecting a deep over-pressured zone to a shallower low-pressure zone of similar reservoir volumes, the time to recharge the shallower zone up to its threshold LOT value is about 135 years. If the ratio of the reservoir volumes for shallower to deeper zone is about 0.1, the recharging time significantly decreased to 24 years. Also, the hydrocarbons might possibly migrate through casing-wellbore annulus due to delamination fractures between cement interfaces with rock/casing and any other micro annulus gap not isolated by cement.

Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression models: a tool to detect trajectory divergence between groups in long-term observational studies.

PubMed

Buscot, Marie-Jeanne; Wotherspoon, Simon S; Magnussen, Costan G; Juonala, Markus; Sabin, Matthew A; Burgner, David P; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma S A; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Raitakari, Olli T; Thomson, Russell J

2017-06-06

Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) modeling has not been previously formulated to detect and characterise the mechanism of trajectory divergence between groups of participants that have longitudinal responses with distinct developmental phases. These models are useful when participants in a prospective cohort study are grouped according to a distal dichotomous health outcome. Indeed, a refined understanding of how deleterious risk factor profiles develop across the life-course may help inform early-life interventions. Previous techniques to determine between-group differences in risk factors at each age may result in biased estimate of the age at divergence. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) to generate a point estimate and credible interval for the age at which trajectories diverge between groups for continuous outcome measures that exhibit non-linear within-person response profiles over time. We illustrate our approach by modeling the divergence in childhood-to-adulthood body mass index (BMI) trajectories between two groups of adults with/without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (YFS). Using the proposed BHPR approach, we estimated the BMI profiles of participants with T2DM diverged from healthy participants at age 16 years for males (95% credible interval (CI):13.5-18 years) and 21 years for females (95% CI: 19.5-23 years). These data suggest that a critical window for weight management intervention in preventing T2DM might exist before the age when BMI growth rate is naturally expected to decrease. Simulation showed that when using pairwise comparison of least-square means from categorical mixed models, smaller sample sizes tended to conclude a later age of divergence. In contrast, the point estimate of the divergence time is not biased by sample size when using the proposed BHPR method. BHPR is a powerful analytic tool to model long-term non-linear longitudinal outcomes, enabling the identification of the age at which risk factor trajectories diverge between groups of participants. The method is suitable for the analysis of unbalanced longitudinal data, with only a limited number of repeated measures per participants and where the time-related outcome is typically marked by transitional changes or by distinct phases of change over time.

Assessment of arsenic and fluorine in surface soil to determine environmental and health risk factors in the Comarca Lagunera, Mexico.

PubMed

Sariñana-Ruiz, Yareli A; Vazquez-Arenas, Jorge; Sosa-Rodríguez, Fabiola S; Labastida, Israel; Armienta, Ma Aurora; Aragón-Piña, Antonio; Escobedo-Bretado, Miguel A; González-Valdez, Laura S; Ponce-Peña, Patricia; Ramírez-Aldaba, Hugo; Lara, René H

2017-07-01

Total, bioaccessible and mobile concentrations of arsenic and fluorine are determined in polluted surface soil within the Comarca Lagunera region using standardized protocols to obtain a full description of the environmental behavior for these elements. The composition of mineral phases associated with them is evaluated with microscopic and spectroscopic techniques. Mineralogical characterizations indicate that ultra-fine particles (<1-5 μm) including mimetite-vanadite (Pb 5 (AsO 4 ) 3 Cl, Pb 5 (AsO 4 , VO 4 ) 3 Cl)-like, lead arseniate (Pb 3 (AsO 4 ) 2 )-like and complex arsenic-bearing compounds are main arsenic-bearing phases, while fluorite (CaF 2 ) is the only fluorine-bearing phase. Total fluorine and arsenic concentrations in surface soil range from 89.75 to 926.63 and 2.7-78.6 mg kg -1 , respectively, exceeding in many points a typical baseline value for fluorine (321 mg kg -1 ), and trigger level criterion for arsenic soil remediation (20 mg kg -1 ); whereas fluoride and arsenic concentrations in groundwater vary from 0.24 to 1.8 mg L -1 and 0.12-0.650 mg L -1 , respectively. The main bioaccessible percentages of soil in the gastric phase (SBRC-G) are estimated for arsenic from 1 to 63%, and this parameter in the intestinal phase (SBRC-I) fluorine from 2 to 46%, suggesting human health risks for this region. While a negligible/low mobility is found in soil for arsenic (0.1-11%), an important mobility is determined for fluorine (2-39%), indicating environmental risk related to potential fluorine release. The environmental and health risks connected to arsenic and fluorine are discussed based on experimental data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drilling and Production Activity Related to Unconventional Gas Development and Severity of Preterm Birth.

PubMed

Walker Whitworth, Kristina; Kaye Marshall, Amanda; Symanski, Elaine

2018-03-20

Studies of unconventional gas development (UGD) and preterm birth (PTB) have not presented risk estimates by well development phase or trimester. We examined phase and trimester-specific associations between UGD activity and PTB. We conducted a case-control study of women with singleton births in the Barnett Shale area, Texas, from 30 November 2010 to 29 November 2012. We individually age- and race/ethnicity-matched five controls to each PTB case ( n =13,328) and truncated controls' time at risk according to the matched case's gestational age. We created phase-specific UGD-activity metrics: a ) inverse squared distance-weighted (IDW) count of wells in the drilling phase ≤0.5 mi (804.7 meters) of the residence and b ) IDW sum of natural gas produced ≤0.5 mi of the residence. We also constructed trimester- and gestation-specific metrics. Metrics were categorized as follows: zero wells (reference), first, second, third tertiles of UGD activity. Analyses were repeated by PTB severity: extreme, very, and moderate (<28, 28 to<32, and 32 to<37 completed weeks). Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. We found increased odds of PTB in the third tertile of the UGD drilling {odds ratio (OR)=1.20 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.37]} and UGD-production [OR=1.15 (1.05, 1.26)] metrics. Among women in the third tertile of UGD-production, associations were strongest in trimesters one [OR=1.18 (1.02, 1.37)] and two [OR=1.14 (0.99, 1.31). The greatest risk was observed for extremely PTB [third tertile ORs: UGD drilling, 2.00 (1.23, 3.24); UGD production, 1.53 (1.03-2.27)]. We found evidence of differences in phase- and trimester-specific associations of UGD and PTB and indication of particular risk associated with extremely preterm birth. Future studies should focus on quantifying specific chemical and nonchemical stressors associated with UGD. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2622.

The bioavailability of chemicals in soil for earthworms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanno, R.; Wells, J.; Conder, Jason M.; Bradham, K.; Basta, N.

2004-01-01

The bioavailability of chemicals to earthworms can be modified dramatically by soil physical/chemical characteristics, yet expressing exposure as total chemical concentrations does not address this problem. In order to understand the effects of modifying factors on bioavailability, one must measure and express chemical bioavailability to earthworms in a consistent, logical manner. This can be accomplished by direct biological measures of bioavailability (e.g., bioaccumulation, critical body residues), indirect biological measures of bioavailability (e.g., biomarkers, reproduction), or indirect chemical measures of bioavailability (e.g., chemical or solid-phase extracts of soil). If indirect chemical measures of bioavailability are to be used, they must be correlated with some biological response. Bioavailability can be incorporated into ecological risk assessment during risk analysis, primarily in the estimation of exposure. However, in order to be used in the site-specific ecological risk assessment of chemicals, effects concentrations must be developed from laboratory toxicity tests based on exposure estimates utilizing techniques that measure the bioavailable fraction of chemicals in soil, not total chemical concentrations. ?? 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Designing Estimator/Predictor Digital Phase-Locked Loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Statman, J. I.; Hurd, W. J.

1988-01-01

Signal delays in equipment compensated automatically. New approach to design of digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) incorporates concepts from estimation theory and involves decomposition of closed-loop transfer function into estimator and predictor. Estimator provides recursive estimates of phase, frequency, and higher order derivatives of phase with respect to time, while predictor compensates for delay, called "transport lag," caused by PLL equipment and by DPLL computations.

Quantum-enhanced metrology for multiple phase estimation with noise

PubMed Central

Yue, Jie-Dong; Zhang, Yu-Ran; Fan, Heng

2014-01-01

We present a general quantum metrology framework to study the simultaneous estimation of multiple phases in the presence of noise as a discretized model for phase imaging. This approach can lead to nontrivial bounds of the precision for multiphase estimation. Our results show that simultaneous estimation (SE) of multiple phases is always better than individual estimation (IE) of each phase even in noisy environment. The utility of the bounds of multiple phase estimation for photon loss channels is exemplified explicitly. When noise is low, those bounds possess the Heisenberg scale showing quantum-enhanced precision with the O(d) advantage for SE, where d is the number of phases. However, this O(d) advantage of SE scheme in the variance of the estimation may disappear asymptotically when photon loss becomes significant and then only a constant advantage over that of IE scheme demonstrates. Potential application of those results is presented. PMID:25090445

Assessment of the occupational and environmental risks of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) in China.

PubMed

Yi, Shan; Liu, Jian-Guo; Jin, Jun; Zhu, Jing

2016-05-01

In 2013, hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) was listed in the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants obligated to be phased out worldwide. China is a major producer and user of HBCD. Based on Chinese HBCD production and processing conditions, we classified the existing 599 HBCD production and processing plants into six occupational exposure scenarios. We also used occupational environmental monitoring and occupational health risk assessment models to estimate exposure levels. Occupational internal exposure levels for HBCD in China were estimated to range from 0.61 to 840 μg kg(-1) d(-1), which suggests that approximately 453-840 workers, or 72% of all workers in this industry, may have occupational exposure risk. As such, the occupational risks of HBCD should not be ignored. In our study area, HPLC-MS/MS revealed HBCD concentrations ranging from 0.11 to 560 ng g dry weight (dw)(-1), 20.4-24.2 ng g dw(-1), and 166-1964 ng g lipid weight (lw)(-1) in soil, sediment, and biological samples, respectively, consistent with previous monitoring results. These data suggest potential risk to marine environments due to sustained and large-scale HBCD production and processing. Thus, timely measures to control HBCD-related risk are necessary and may bring significant occupational health and environmental benefits in areas where HBCD is prevalent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Molten-Salt Heat Transfer Fluid Technology for Parabolic Trough Solar Power Plants - Public Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grogan, Dylan C. P.

2013-08-15

Executive Summary This Final Report for the "Development of Molten-Salt Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF) Technology for Parabolic Trough Solar Power Plants” describes the overall project accomplishments, results and conclusions. Phase 1 analyzed the feasibility, cost and performance of a parabolic trough solar power plant with a molten salt heat transfer fluid (HTF); researched and/or developed feasible component options, detailed cost estimates and workable operating procedures; and developed hourly performance models. As a result, a molten salt plant with 6 hours of storage was shown to reduce Thermal Energy Storage (TES) cost by 43.2%, solar field cost by 14.8%, and levelizedmore » cost of energy (LCOE) by 9.8% - 14.5% relative to a similar state-of-the-art baseline plant. The LCOE savings range met the project’s Go/No Go criteria of 10% LCOE reduction. Another primary focus of Phase 1 and 2 was risk mitigation. The large risk areas associated with a molten salt parabolic trough plant were addressed in both Phases, such as; HTF freeze prevention and recovery, collector components and piping connections, and complex component interactions. Phase 2 analyzed in more detail the technical and economic feasibility of a 140 MWe,gross molten-salt CSP plant with 6 hours of TES. Phase 2 accomplishments included developing technical solutions to the above mentioned risk areas, such as freeze protection/recovery, corrosion effects of applicable molten salts, collector design improvements for molten salt, and developing plant operating strategies for maximized plant performance and freeze risk mitigation. Phase 2 accomplishments also included developing and thoroughly analyzing a molten salt, Parabolic Trough power plant performance model, in order to achieve the project cost and performance targets. The plant performance model and an extensive basic Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) quote were used to calculate a real levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 11.50¢/kWhe , which achieved the Phase 2 Go/No Go target of less than 0.12¢/kWhe. Abengoa Solar has high confidence that the primary risk areas have been addressed in the project and a commercial plant utilizing molten salt is economically and technically feasible. The strong results from the Phase 1 and 2 research, testing, and analyses, summarized in this report, led Abengoa Solar to recommend that the project proceed to Phase 3. However, a commercially viable collector interconnection was not fully validated by the end of Phase 2, combined with the uncertainty in the federal budget, forced the DOE and Abengoa Solar to close the project. Thus the resources required to construct and operate a molten salt pilot plant will be solely supplied by Abengoa Solar.« less

Joint estimation of phase and phase diffusion for quantum metrology.

PubMed

Vidrighin, Mihai D; Donati, Gaia; Genoni, Marco G; Jin, Xian-Min; Kolthammer, W Steven; Kim, M S; Datta, Animesh; Barbieri, Marco; Walmsley, Ian A

2014-04-14

Phase estimation, at the heart of many quantum metrology and communication schemes, can be strongly affected by noise, whose amplitude may not be known, or might be subject to drift. Here we investigate the joint estimation of a phase shift and the amplitude of phase diffusion at the quantum limit. For several relevant instances, this multiparameter estimation problem can be effectively reshaped as a two-dimensional Hilbert space model, encompassing the description of an interferometer phase probed with relevant quantum states--split single-photons, coherent states or N00N states. For these cases, we obtain a trade-off bound on the statistical variances for the joint estimation of phase and phase diffusion, as well as optimum measurement schemes. We use this bound to quantify the effectiveness of an actual experimental set-up for joint parameter estimation for polarimetry. We conclude by discussing the form of the trade-off relations for more general states and measurements.

An Adaptive Rear-End Collision Warning System for Drivers That Estimates Driving Phase and Selects Training Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Kazushi; Mima, Hiroki; Inoue, Yuta; Shibata, Tomohiro; Fukaya, Naoki; Hitomi, Kentaro; Bando, Takashi

The paper proposes a rear-end collision warning system for drivers, where the collision risk is adaptively set from driving signals. The system employs the inverse of the time-to-collision with a constant relative acceleration as the risk and the one-class support vector machine as the anomaly detector. The system also utilizes brake sequences for outliers detection. When a brake sequence has a low likelihood with respect to trained hidden Markov models, the driving data during the sequence are removed from the training dataset. This data selection is confirmed to increase the robustness of the system by computer simulations.

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, ED; Fridge, Ernie; Hamaker, Joe

1990-01-01

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

SU-E-T-561: Monte Carlo-Based Organ Dose Reconstruction Using Pre-Contoured Human Model for Hodgkins Lymphoma Patients Treated by Cobalt-60 External Beam Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jung, J; Pelletier, C; Lee, C

Purpose: Organ doses for the Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients treated with cobalt-60 radiation were estimated using an anthropomorphic model and Monte Carlo modeling. Methods: A cobalt-60 treatment unit modeled in the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo code was used to produce phase space data. The Monte Carlo simulation was verified with percent depth dose measurement in water at various field sizes. Radiation transport through the lung blocks were modeled by adjusting the weights of phase space data. We imported a precontoured adult female hybrid model and generated a treatment plan. The adjusted phase space data and the human model were imported to themore » XVMC Monte Carlo code for dose calculation. The organ mean doses were estimated and dose volume histograms were plotted. Results: The percent depth dose agreement between measurement and calculation in water phantom was within 2% for all field sizes. The mean organ doses of heart, left breast, right breast, and spleen for the selected case were 44.3, 24.1, 14.6 and 3.4 Gy, respectively with the midline prescription dose of 40.0 Gy. Conclusion: Organ doses were estimated for the patient group whose threedimensional images are not available. This development may open the door to more accurate dose reconstruction and estimates of uncertainties in secondary cancer risk for Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients. This work was partially supported by the intramural research program of the National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics.« less

Dynamical modeling approach to risk assessment for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in interplanetary space missions.

PubMed

Smirnova, Olga A; Cucinotta, Francis A

2018-02-01

A recently developed biologically motivated dynamical model of the assessment of the excess relative risk (ERR) for radiogenic leukemia among acutely/continuously irradiated humans (Smirnova, 2015, 2017) is applied to estimate the ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions. Numerous scenarios of space radiation exposure during space missions are used in the modeling studies. The dependence of the ERR for leukemia among astronauts on several mission parameters including the dose equivalent rates of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large solar particle events (SPEs), the number of large SPEs, the time interval between SPEs, mission duration, the degree of astronaut's additional shielding during SPEs, the degree of their additional 12-hour's daily shielding, as well as the total mission dose equivalent, is examined. The results of the estimation of ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts, which are obtained in the framework of the developed dynamical model for various scenarios of space radiation exposure, are compared with the corresponding results, computed by the commonly used linear model. It is revealed that the developed dynamical model along with the linear model can be applied to estimate ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions in the range of applicability of the latter. In turn, the developed dynamical model is capable of predicting the ERR for leukemia among astronauts for the irradiation regimes beyond the applicability range of the linear model in emergency cases. As a supplement to the estimations of cancer incidence and death (REIC and REID) (Cucinotta et al., 2013, 2017), the developed dynamical model for the assessment of the ERR for leukemia can be employed on the pre-mission design phase for, e.g., the optimization of the regimes of astronaut's additional shielding in the course of interplanetary space missions. The developed model can also be used on the phase of the real-time responses during the space mission to make the decisions on the operational application of appropriate countermeasures to minimize the risks of occurrences of leukemia, especially, for emergency cases. Copyright © 2017 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic Performance of a Rapid Magnetic Resonance Imaging Method of Measuring Hepatic Steatosis

PubMed Central

House, Michael J.; Gan, Eng K.; Adams, Leon A.; Ayonrinde, Oyekoya T.; Bangma, Sander J.; Bhathal, Prithi S.; Olynyk, John K.; St. Pierre, Tim G.

2013-01-01

Objectives Hepatic steatosis is associated with an increased risk of developing serious liver disease and other clinical sequelae of the metabolic syndrome. However, visual estimates of steatosis from histological sections of biopsy samples are subjective and reliant on an invasive procedure with associated risks. The aim of this study was to test the ability of a rapid, routinely available, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) method to diagnose clinically relevant grades of hepatic steatosis in a cohort of patients with diverse liver diseases. Materials and Methods Fifty-nine patients with a range of liver diseases underwent liver biopsy and MRI. Hepatic steatosis was quantified firstly using an opposed-phase, in-phase gradient echo, single breath-hold MRI methodology and secondly, using liver biopsy with visual estimation by a histopathologist and by computer-assisted morphometric image analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the diagnostic performance of the MRI method against the biopsy observations. Results The MRI approach had high sensitivity and specificity at all hepatic steatosis thresholds. Areas under ROC curves were 0.962, 0.993, and 0.972 at thresholds of 5%, 33%, and 66% liver fat, respectively. MRI measurements were strongly associated with visual (r2 = 0.83) and computer-assisted morphometric (r2 = 0.84) estimates of hepatic steatosis from histological specimens. Conclusions This MRI approach, using a conventional, rapid, gradient echo method, has high sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing liver fat at all grades of steatosis in a cohort with a range of liver diseases. PMID:23555650

Experimental Demonstration of a Cheap and Accurate Phase Estimation

DOE PAGES

Rudinger, Kenneth; Kimmel, Shelby; Lobser, Daniel; ...

2017-05-11

We demonstrate an experimental implementation of robust phase estimation (RPE) to learn the phase of a single-qubit rotation on a trapped Yb + ion qubit. Here, we show this phase can be estimated with an uncertainty below 4 × 10 -4 rad using as few as 176 total experimental samples, and our estimates exhibit Heisenberg scaling. Unlike standard phase estimation protocols, RPE neither assumes perfect state preparation and measurement, nor requires access to ancillae. We crossvalidate the results of RPE with the more resource-intensive protocol of gate set tomography.

Space Radiation Risks for Astronauts on Multiple International Space Station Missions

PubMed Central

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate. PMID:24759903

Space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station missions.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA's radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members' radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate.

Body size and mortality rates in coral reef fishes: a three-phase relationship

PubMed Central

Bellwood, David Roy

2016-01-01

Body size is closely linked to mortality rates in many animals, although the overarching patterns in this relationship have rarely been considered for multiple species. A meta-analysis of published size-specific mortality rates for coral reef fishes revealed an exponential decline in mortality rate with increasing body size, however, within this broad relationship there are three distinct phases. Phase one is characterized by naive fishes recruiting to reefs, which suffer extremely high mortality rates. In this well-studied phase, fishes must learn quickly to survive the many predation risks. After just a few days, the surviving fishes enter phase two, in which small increases in body size result in pronounced increases in lifespan (estimated 11 d mm–1). Remarkably, approximately 50% of reef fish individuals remain in phase two throughout their lives. Once fishes reach a size threshold of about 43 mm total length (TL) they enter phase three, where mortality rates are relatively low and the pressure to grow is presumably, significantly reduced. These phases provide a clearer understanding of the impact of body size on mortality rates in coral reef fishes and begin to reveal critical insights into the energetic and trophic dynamics of coral reefs. PMID:27798308

Categorizing sources of risk and the estimated magnitude of risk.

PubMed

Aragonés, Juan Ignacio; Moyano, Emilio; Talayero, Fernando

2008-05-01

The social perception of risk is considered a multidimensional task, yet little attention has been paid to the cognitive components that organize sources of risk, despite their having been discovered in various research studies. This study attempts to concretely analyze the cultural dimension involved in those processes. In the first phase, we tried to discover to what extent sources of risk are organized into the same categories by people from different countries. In order to do so, two groups of participants were formed: 60 Spanish psychology students and 60 Chilean psychology students classified 43 sources of risk into different groups according to the criteria they found appropriate. The two samples classified risk into identical groups: acts of violence, drugs, electricity and home appliances, household chemicals, chemicals in the environment, public construction projects, transportation, sports, and natural disasters. In a second study, 100 Spanish and 84 Chilean students were asked to evaluate the magnitude of the damage incurred by 17 sources of risk. In both groups, it was observed that the evaluation of damage resulting from each source of risk was affected by its category.

A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario.

PubMed

Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Van den Brink, Paul J; Tello, Alfredo

2017-12-01

Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development in environmental compartments and demonstrate its application in aquaculture production systems. We modelled exposure concentrations for 12 antibiotics used in Vietnamese Pangasius catfish production using the ERA-AQUA model. Minimum selective concentration (MSC) distributions that characterize the selective pressure of antibiotics on bacterial communities were derived from the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) Minimum Inhibitory Concentration dataset. The antibiotic resistance development risk (RDR) for each antibiotic was calculated as the probability that the antibiotic exposure distribution exceeds the MSC distribution representing the bacterial community. RDRs in pond sediments were nearly 100% for all antibiotics. Median RDR values in pond water were high for the majority of the antibiotics, with rifampicin, levofloxacin and ampicillin having highest values. In the effluent mixing area, RDRs were low for most antibiotics, with the exception of amoxicillin, ampicillin and trimethoprim, which presented moderate risks, and rifampicin and levofloxacin, which presented high risks. The RDR provides an efficient means to benchmark multiple antibiotics and treatment regimes in the initial phase of a risk assessment with regards to their potential to develop resistance in different environmental compartments, and can be used to derive resistance threshold concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

PubMed Central

Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

A Multiphase Design Strategy for Dealing with Participation Bias

PubMed Central

Haneuse, S.; Chen, J.

2012-01-01

Summary A recently funded study of the impact of oral contraceptive use on the risk of bone fracture employed the randomized recruitment scheme of Weinberg and Wacholder (1990, Biometrics 46, 963–975). One potential complication in the bone fracture study is the potential for differential response rates between cases and controls; participation rates in previous, related studies have been around 70%. Although data from randomized recruitment schemes may be analyzed within the two-phase study framework, ignoring potential differential participation may lead to biased estimates of association. To overcome this, we build on the two-phase framework and propose an extension by introducing an additional stage of data collection aimed specifically at addressing potential differential participation. Four estimators that correct for both sampling and participation bias are proposed; two are general purpose and two are for the special case where covariates underlying the participation mechanism are discrete. Because the fracture study is ongoing, we illustrate the methods using infant mortality data from North Carolina. PMID:20377576

Human Dose-Response Data for Francisella tularensis and a Dose- and Time-Dependent Mathematical Model of Early-Phase Fever Associated with Tularemia After Inhalation Exposure.

PubMed

McClellan, Gene; Coleman, Margaret; Crary, David; Thurman, Alec; Thran, Brandolyn

2018-04-25

Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive data from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis, strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early-phase febrile illness following administration of well-characterized inhaled doses of F. tularensis. Supplemental data on human body temperature profiles over time available from de-identified case reports is also presented. A unified, logically consistent model of early-phase febrile illness is described as a lognormal dose-response function for febrile illness linked with a stochastic time profile of fever. Three parameters are estimated from the human data to describe the time profile: incubation period or onset time for fever; rise time of fever; and near-maximum body temperature. Inhaled dose-dependence and variability are characterized for each of the three parameters. These parameters enable a stochastic model for the response of an exposed population through incorporation of individual-by-individual variability by drawing random samples from the statistical distributions of these three parameters for each individual. This model provides risk assessors and medical decisionmakers reliable representations of the predicted health impacts of early-phase febrile illness for as long as one week after aerosol exposures of human populations to F. tularensis. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sex hormones and breast cancer risk in premenopausal women: collaborative reanalysis of seven prospective studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The relationships of circulating concentrations of oestrogens, progesterone and androgens with breast cancer and related risk factors in premenopausal women are not well understood. Methods Individual data on prediagnostic sex hormone and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) concentrations were contributed by 7 prospective studies. Analyses were restricted to women who were premenopausal and under age 50 at blood collection, and to breast cancer cases diagnosed before age 50. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for breast cancer associated with hormone concentrations were estimated by conditional logistic regression in up to 767 cases and 1699 controls matched for age, date of blood collection, and day of cycle, with stratification by study and further adjustment for cycle phase. The associations of hormones with risk factors for breast cancer in control women were examined by comparing geometric mean hormone concentrations in categories of these risk factors, adjusted for study, age, phase of menstrual cycle and body mass index (BMI). All statistical tests were two-sided. Findings ORs for breast cancer associated with a doubling in hormone concentration were 1.19 (95% CI 1.06–1.35) for oestradiol, 1.17 (1.03–1.33) for calculated free oestradiol, 1.27 (1.05–1.54) for oestrone, 1.30 (1.10–1.55) for androstenedione, 1.17 (1.04–1.32) for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate, 1.18 (1.03–1.35) for testosterone and 1.08 (0.97–1.21) for calculated free testosterone. Breast cancer risk was not associated with luteal phase progesterone (for a doubling in concentration OR=1.00 (0.92–1.09)), and adjustment for other factors had little effect on any of these ORs. The cross-sectional analyses in control women showed several associations of sex hormones with breast cancer risk factors. Interpretation Circulating oestrogens and androgens are positively associated with the risk for breast cancer in premenopausal women. PMID:23890780

Analyses in Support of Risk-Informed Natural Gas Vehicle Maintenance Facility Codes and Standards: Phase II.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Chris Bensdotter; Muna, Alice Baca

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed natural gas fueled vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operating procedures. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase II work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest using risk ranking. Detailed simulations and modeling were performed to estimate the location and behaviormore » of natural gas releases based on these scenarios. Specific code conflicts were identified, and ineffective code requirements were highlighted and resolutions proposed. These include ventilation rate basis on area or volume, as well as a ceiling offset which seems ineffective at protecting against flammable gas concentrations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge Bill Houf (SNL -- Retired) for his assistance with the set-up and post-processing of the numerical simulations. The authors also acknowledge Doug Horne (retired) for his helpful discussions. We would also like to acknowledge the support from the Clean Cities program of DOE's Vehicle Technology Office.« less

Monte-Carlo-based phase retardation estimator for polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Lian; Makita, Shuichi; Yamanari, Masahiro; Lim, Yiheng; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

2011-08-01

A Monte-Carlo-based phase retardation estimator is developed to correct the systematic error in phase retardation measurement by polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT). Recent research has revealed that the phase retardation measured by PS-OCT has a distribution that is neither symmetric nor centered at the true value. Hence, a standard mean estimator gives us erroneous estimations of phase retardation, and it degrades the performance of PS-OCT for quantitative assessment. In this paper, the noise property in phase retardation is investigated in detail by Monte-Carlo simulation and experiments. A distribution transform function is designed to eliminate the systematic error by using the result of the Monte-Carlo simulation. This distribution transformation is followed by a mean estimator. This process provides a significantly better estimation of phase retardation than a standard mean estimator. This method is validated both by numerical simulations and experiments. The application of this method to in vitro and in vivo biological samples is also demonstrated.

Comparative health and safety assessment of the SPS and alternative electrical generation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habegger, L. J.; Gasper, J. R.; Brown, C. D.

1980-07-01

A comparative analysis of health and safety risks is presented for the Satellite Power System and five alternative baseload electrical generation systems: a low-Btu coal gasification system with an open-cycle gas turbine combined with a steam topping cycle; a light water fission reactor system without fuel reprocessing; a liquid metal fast breeder fission reactor system; a central station terrestrial photovoltaic system; and a first generation fusion system with magnetic confinement. For comparison, risk from a decentralized roof-top photovoltaic system with battery storage is also evaluated. Quantified estimates of public and occupational risks within ranges of uncertainty were developed for each phase of the energy system. The potential significance of related major health and safety issues that remain unquantitied are also discussed.

Comparative health and safety assessment of the SPS and alternative electrical generation systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habegger, L. J.; Gasper, J. R.; Brown, C. D.

1980-01-01

A comparative analysis of health and safety risks is presented for the Satellite Power System and five alternative baseload electrical generation systems: a low-Btu coal gasification system with an open-cycle gas turbine combined with a steam topping cycle; a light water fission reactor system without fuel reprocessing; a liquid metal fast breeder fission reactor system; a central station terrestrial photovoltaic system; and a first generation fusion system with magnetic confinement. For comparison, risk from a decentralized roof-top photovoltaic system with battery storage is also evaluated. Quantified estimates of public and occupational risks within ranges of uncertainty were developed for each phase of the energy system. The potential significance of related major health and safety issues that remain unquantitied are also discussed.

Estimating post-marketing exposure to pharmaceutical products using ex-factory distribution data.

PubMed

Telfair, Tamara; Mohan, Aparna K; Shahani, Shalini; Klincewicz, Stephen; Atsma, Willem Jan; Thomas, Adrian; Fife, Daniel

2006-10-01

The pharmaceutical industry has an obligation to identify adverse reactions to drug products during all phases of drug development, including the post-marketing period. Estimates of population exposure to pharmaceutical products are important to the post-marketing surveillance of drugs, and provide a context for assessing the various risks and benefits, including drug safety, associated with drug treatment. This paper describes a systematic approach to estimating post-marketing drug exposure using ex-factory shipment data to estimate the quantity of medication available, and dosage information (stratified by indication or other factors as appropriate) to convert the quantity of medication to person time of exposure. Unlike the non-standardized methods often used to estimate exposure, this approach provides estimates whose calculations are explicit, documented, and consistent across products and over time. The methods can readily be carried out by an individual or small group specializing in this function, and lend themselves to automation. The present estimation approach is practical and relatively uncomplicated to implement. We believe it is a useful innovation. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost-benefit analysis for a lead wheel weight phase-out in Canada.

PubMed

Campbell, P M; Corneau, E; Nishimura, D; Teng, E; Ekoualla, D

2018-05-06

Lead wheel weights (LWWs) have been banned in Europe, and some US States, but they continue to dominate the market in Canada. Exposure to lead is associated with numerous health impacts and can result in multiple and irreversible health problems which include cognitive impairment when exposure occurs during early development. Such impacts incur high individual and social costs. The purpose of this study was to assess the costs and public health benefits of a Risk Management Strategy (RMS) that would result from a LWW phase-out in Canada and compare this to a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario. The contribution of LWWs to lead concentrations in media including roadway soil/dust, ambient and indoor air, and indoor dust were estimated. The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children (IEUBK) was used to develop estimates for the blood lead levels (BLLs) in children (μg/dL) associated with the BAU and the RMS. The BLLs estimated via the IEUBK model were then used to assess the IQ decrements associated with the BAU that would be avoided under the RMS. The subsequent overall societal benefits in terms of increased lifetime earning potential and reduced crime rate, were then estimated and compared to industry and government costs. LWWs form 72% of the Canadian wheel weight market and >1500 tonnes of lead as new LWWs attached to vehicles enters Canadian society annually. We estimate that 110-131 tonnes of lead in detached WWs are abraded on roadways in Canada each year. A LWW phase-out was predicted to result in a drop in pre-school BLLs of up to 0.4 μg/dL. The estimated net benefits associated with the RMS based on cognitive decrements avoided and hence increased lifetime earning potential (increased productivity) and reduced crime are expected to be: C$248 million (8% discount rate) to C$1.2 billion (3% discount rate) per year. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discrete-to-continuous transition in quantum phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rządkowski, Wojciech; Demkowicz-Dobrzański, Rafał

2017-09-01

We analyze the problem of quantum phase estimation in which the set of allowed phases forms a discrete N -element subset of the whole [0 ,2 π ] interval, φn=2 π n /N , n =0 ,⋯,N -1 , and study the discrete-to-continuous transition N →∞ for various cost functions as well as the mutual information. We also analyze the relation between the problems of phase discrimination and estimation by considering a step cost function of a given width σ around the true estimated value. We show that in general a direct application of the theory of covariant measurements for a discrete subgroup of the U(1 ) group leads to suboptimal strategies due to an implicit requirement of estimating only the phases that appear in the prior distribution. We develop the theory of subcovariant measurements to remedy this situation and demonstrate truly optimal estimation strategies when performing a transition from discrete to continuous phase estimation.

Predicting the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses based on the Simple Rules from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group.

PubMed

Timmerman, Dirk; Van Calster, Ben; Testa, Antonia; Savelli, Luca; Fischerova, Daniela; Froyman, Wouter; Wynants, Laure; Van Holsbeke, Caroline; Epstein, Elisabeth; Franchi, Dorella; Kaijser, Jeroen; Czekierdowski, Artur; Guerriero, Stefano; Fruscio, Robert; Leone, Francesco P G; Rossi, Alberto; Landolfo, Chiara; Vergote, Ignace; Bourne, Tom; Valentin, Lil

2016-04-01

Accurate methods to preoperatively characterize adnexal tumors are pivotal for optimal patient management. A recent metaanalysis concluded that the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis algorithms such as the Simple Rules are the best approaches to preoperatively classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses using the ultrasound features in the Simple Rules. This was an international cross-sectional cohort study involving 22 oncology centers, referral centers for ultrasonography, and general hospitals. We included consecutive patients with an adnexal tumor who underwent a standardized transvaginal ultrasound examination and were selected for surgery. Data on 5020 patients were recorded in 3 phases from 2002 through 2012. The 5 Simple Rules features indicative of a benign tumor (B-features) and the 5 features indicative of malignancy (M-features) are based on the presence of ascites, tumor morphology, and degree of vascularity at ultrasonography. Gold standard was the histopathologic diagnosis of the adnexal mass (pathologist blinded to ultrasound findings). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of malignancy based on the 10 ultrasound features and type of center. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and calibration curves. Data on 4848 patients were analyzed. The malignancy rate was 43% (1402/3263) in oncology centers and 17% (263/1585) in other centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve on validation data was very similar in oncology centers (0.917; 95% confidence interval, 0.901-0.931) and other centers (0.916; 95% confidence interval, 0.873-0.945). Risk estimates showed good calibration. In all, 23% of patients in the validation data set had a very low estimated risk (<1%) and 48% had a high estimated risk (≥30%). For the 1% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 99.7%, specificity 33.7%, LR+ 1.5, LR- 0.010, PPV 44.8%, and NPV 98.9%. For the 30% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 89.0%, specificity 84.7%, LR+ 5.8, LR- 0.13, PPV 75.4%, and NPV 93.9%. Quantification of the risk of malignancy based on the Simple Rules has good diagnostic performance both in oncology centers and other centers. A simple classification based on these risk estimates may form the basis of a clinical management system. Patients with a high risk may benefit from surgery by a gynecological oncologist, while patients with a lower risk may be managed locally. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous estimation of multiple phases in digital holographic interferometry using state space analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, Rishikesh; Rastogi, Pramod

2018-05-01

A new approach is proposed for the multiple phase estimation from a multicomponent exponential phase signal recorded in multi-beam digital holographic interferometry. It is capable of providing multidimensional measurements in a simultaneous manner from a single recording of the exponential phase signal encoding multiple phases. Each phase within a small window around each pixel is appproximated with a first order polynomial function of spatial coordinates. The problem of accurate estimation of polynomial coefficients, and in turn the unwrapped phases, is formulated as a state space analysis wherein the coefficients and signal amplitudes are set as the elements of a state vector. The state estimation is performed using the extended Kalman filter. An amplitude discrimination criterion is utilized in order to unambiguously estimate the coefficients associated with the individual signal components. The performance of proposed method is stable over a wide range of the ratio of signal amplitudes. The pixelwise phase estimation approach of the proposed method allows it to handle the fringe patterns that may contain invalid regions.

Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, L. C.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Atwell, W.; Nealy, J. E.

1993-01-01

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50 percent less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Effect of stratified care for low back pain in family practice (IMPaCT Back): a prospective population-based sequential comparison.

PubMed

Foster, Nadine E; Mullis, Ricky; Hill, Jonathan C; Lewis, Martyn; Whitehurst, David G T; Doyle, Carol; Konstantinou, Kika; Main, Chris; Somerville, Simon; Sowden, Gail; Wathall, Simon; Young, Julie; Hay, Elaine M

2014-01-01

We aimed to determine the effects of implementing risk-stratified care for low back pain in family practice on physician's clinical behavior, patient outcomes, and costs. The IMPaCT Back Study (IMplementation to improve Patient Care through Targeted treatment) prospectively compared separate patient cohorts in a preintervention phase (6 months of usual care) and a postintervention phase (12 months of stratified care) in family practice, involving 64 family physicians and linked physical therapy services. A total of 1,647 adults with low back pain were invited to participate. Stratified care entailed use of a risk stratification tool to classify patients into groups at low, medium, or high risk for persistent disability and provision of risk-matched treatment. The primary outcome was 6-month change in disability as assessed with the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire. Process outcomes captured physician behavior change in risk-appropriate referral to physical therapy, diagnostic tests, medication prescriptions, and sickness certifications. A cost-utility analysis estimated incremental quality-adjusted life-years and back-related health care costs. Analysis was by intention to treat. The 922 patients studied (368 in the preintervention phase and 554 in the postintervention phase) had comparable baseline characteristics. At 6 months follow-up, stratified care had a small but significant benefit relative to usual care as seen from a mean difference in Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire scores of 0.7 (95% CI, 0.1-1.4), with a large, clinically important difference in the high risk group of 2.3 (95% CI, 0.8-3.9). Mean time off work was 50% shorter (4 vs 8 days, P = .03) and the proportion of patients given sickness certifications was 30% lower (9% vs 15%, P = .03) in the postintervention cohort. Health care cost savings were also observed. Stratified care for back pain implemented in family practice leads to significant improvements in patient disability outcomes and a halving in time off work, without increasing health care costs. Wider implementation is recommended.

Phase estimation without a priori phase knowledge in the presence of loss

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kolodynski, Jan; Demkowicz-Dobrzanski, Rafal

2010-11-15

We find the optimal scheme for quantum phase estimation in the presence of loss when no a priori knowledge on the estimated phase is available. We prove analytically an explicit lower bound on estimation uncertainty, which shows that, as a function of the number of probes, quantum precision enhancement amounts at most to a constant factor improvement over classical strategies.

Four phases of the Flint Water Crisis: Evidence from blood lead levels in children.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; McElmurry, Shawn P; Sadler, Richard C

2017-08-01

The Flint Water Crisis (FWC) is divisible into four phases of child water-lead exposure risk: Phase A) before the switch in water source to the Flint River (our baseline); Phase B) after the switch in water source, but before boil water advisories; Phase C) after boil water advisories, but before the switch back to the baseline water source of the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department (DWSD); and Phase D) after the switch back to DWSD. The objective of this work is to estimate water-lead attributable movements in child blood lead levels (BLLs) that correspond with the four phases in the FWC. With over 21,000 geo-referenced and time-stamped blood lead samples from children in Genesee County drawn from January 01, 2013 to July 19, 2016, we develop a series of quasi-experimental models to identify the causal effect of water-lead exposure on child BLLs in Flint. We find that the switch in water source (transitioning from phase A to B) caused mean BLLs to increase by about 0.5μg/dL, and increased the likelihood of a child presenting with a BLL ≥ 5μg/dL by a factor of 1.91-3.50, implying an additional 561 children exceeding 5μg/dL. We conservatively estimate cohort social costs (through lost earnings alone) of this increase in water-lead exposed children at $65 million, contrasted with expected annual savings of $2 million from switching water source. On the switch from Phase B to C, we find BLLs decreased about 50% from their initial rise following boil water advisories and subsequent water avoidance behaviors by households. Finally, the return to the baseline source water (Phase D) returned child BLLs to pre-FWC levels further implicating water-lead exposure as a causal source of child BLLs throughout the FWC. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

World at Risk: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

we brought together a staff of more than two dozen profes- sionals and subject matter experts from across the national security, intelli - gence, and...cities or time-phased attacks (i.e., “reload”). For federal planning purposes, it will be assumed that the Universal Adversary ( UA ) will attack five...that biologists will become terrorists. The last point bears repeating. We accept the validity of intelli - gence estimates about the current

Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project

PubMed Central

de’ Donato, Francesca K.; Leone, Michela; Scortichini, Matteo; De Sario, Manuela; Katsouyanni, Klea; Lanki, Timo; Basagaña, Xavier; Ballester, Ferran; Åström, Christofer; Paldy, Anna; Pascal, Mathilde; Gasparrini, Antonio; Menne, Bettina; Michelozzi, Paola

2015-01-01

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996–2002 and 2004–2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources. PMID:26670239

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

A quantitative risk assessment for the safety of carcase storage systems for scrapie infected farms.

PubMed

Adkin, A; Jones, D L; Eckford, R L; Edwards-Jones, G; Williams, A P

2014-10-01

To determine the risk associated with the use of carcase storage vessels on a scrapie infected farm. A stochastic quantitative risk assessment was developed to determine the rate of accumulation and fate of scrapie in a novel low-input storage system. For an example farm infected with classical scrapie, a mean of 10(3·6) Ovine Oral ID50 s was estimated to accumulate annually. Research indicates that the degradation of any prions present may range from insignificant to a magnitude of one or two logs over several months of storage. For infected farms, the likely partitioning of remaining prion into the sludge phase would necessitate the safe operation and removal of resulting materials from these systems. If complete mixing could be assumed, on average, the concentrations of infectivity are estimated to be slightly lower than that measured in placenta from infected sheep at lambing. This is the first quantitative assessment of the scrapie risk associated with fallen stock on farm and provides guidance to policy makers on the safety of one type of storage system and the relative risk when compared to other materials present on an infected farm. © 2014 Crown Copyright. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

A Quiescent Phase in Human Mortality? Exploring the Ages of Least Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Engelman, Michal; Seplaki, Christopher L.; Varadhan, Ravi

2017-01-01

Demographic studies of mortality often emphasize the two ends of the lifespan, focusing on the declining hazard after birth or the increasing risk of death at older ages. We call attention to the intervening phase, when humans are least vulnerable to the force of mortality, and consider its features in both evolutionary and historical perspectives. We define this quiescent phase (Q-phase) formally, estimate its bounds using life tables for Swedish cohorts born between 1800 and 1920, and describe changes in the morphology of the Q-phase. We show that for cohorts aging during Sweden’s demographic and epidemiological transitions, the Q-phase became longer and more pronounced, reflecting the retreat of infections and maternal mortality as key causes of death. These changes revealed an underlying hazard trajectory that remains relatively low and constant during the prime ages for reproduction and investment in both personal capital and relationships with others. Our characterization of the Q-phase highlights it as a unique, dynamic, and historically contingent cohort feature, whose increased visibility was made possible by the rapid pace of survival improvements in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This visibility may be reduced or sustained under subsequent demographic regimes. PMID:28397179

Planning and Estimation of Operations Support Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newhouse, Marilyn E.; Barley, Bryan; Bacskay, Allen; Clardy, Dennon

2010-01-01

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) estimates during the proposal and early design phases, as well as project replans during the development phase, are heavily focused on hardware development schedules and costs. Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead to de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Any LCC growth can directly impact the programs' ability to fund new missions, and even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that 4 out of the 5 missions studied had significant overruns at or after launch due to underestimation of the complexity and supporting requirements for operations activities; the fifth mission had not launched at the time of the mission. The drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This paper updates the D&NF LCC study, looking at the operations (phase E) cost drivers in more detail and extending the study to include 2 additional missions and identifies areas for increased emphasis by project management in order to improve the fidelity of operations estimates.

A Preliminary Study of Hazus-MH Volcano for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, S.; An, H.; Oh, J.

2013-12-01

This presentation will introduce our design to develop a volcano risk modeling capacity within the Hazus-MH loss estimation framework. In particular, we will present how to build fragility curves within the Hazus-MH framework for loss estimation from volcanoes. This capability is designed to analyze the risk from volcanic hazards in Korea. The Korean peninsula has Mt. Baekdu in North Korea, which will soon enter an active phase, according to some volcanologists. The anticipated eruption will be explosive given the viscous and grassy silica-rich magma, and is expected to be one of the largest in recent millennia. We aim to assess the impacts of this eruption, in particular to South Korea. There are several types of hazards related to volcanic eruption, including ash, pyroclastic flows, volcanic floods and earthquakes. However, our initial efforts focus on modeling losses from volcanic ash. The proposed volcanic ash model is anticipated to be used to estimate losses caused by yellow dust in East Asia as well. Also, many countries, which are exposed to potentially dangerous volcanoes, can benefit from the proposed Hazus-MH Volcano risk model. Acknowledgement: this research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-3] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea. We would like to thank Federal Emergency Management Agency which develops Hazus-MH and allows the international use of Hazus-MH.

Personalized Prediction of Psychosis: External validation of the NAPLS2 Psychosis Risk Calculator with the EDIPPP project

PubMed Central

Carrión, Ricardo E.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; Burton, Cynthia Z.; Tso, Ivy F; Auther, Andrea; Adelsheim, Steven; Calkins, Roderick; Carter, Cameron S.; Niendam, Tara; Taylor, Stephan F.; McFarlane, William R.

2016-01-01

Objective In the current issue, Cannon and colleagues, as part of the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2), report on a risk calculator for the individualized prediction of developing a psychotic disorder in a 2-year period. The present study represents an external validation of the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator using an independent sample of subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis collected as part of the Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP). Methods 176 subjects with follow-up (from the total EDIPPP sample of 210) rated as clinical high-risk (CHR) based on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes were used to construct a new prediction model with the 6 significant predictor variables in the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator (unusual thoughts, suspiciousness, Symbol Coding, verbal learning, social functioning decline, baseline age, and family history). Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The NAPLS2 risk calculator was then used to generate a psychosis risk estimate for each case in the external validation sample. Results The external validation model showed good discrimination, with an AUC of 79% (95% CI 0.644–0.937). In addition, the personalized risk generated by the NAPLS calculator provided a solid estimation of the actual conversion outcome in the validation sample. Conclusions In the companion papers in this issue, two independent samples of CHR subjects converge to validate the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator. This prediction calculator represents a meaningful step towards early intervention and personalized treatment of psychotic disorders. PMID:27363511

Exposure Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAHs) in Childcare Centers of Muang, Nakhon Ratchasima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jitlada, C.; Pentamwa, P.

2018-03-01

This study aims to characterize airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as of particulate and vapor phases variation. The samples were collected from the childcare centers where divided into urban and rural areas in Nakhon Ratchasima Province of Thailand. The airborne samples were collected from five childcare centers during the dry season in the year 2017. The PAHs species were determined by the gas chromatography and mass spectroscopy (GS/MS) method. Results show that the total concentrations of PAHs were higher than vapor phase that both similar in urban area and rural area. The dominant PAHs compounds of both urban and rural areas were benzo(a)pyrene, benzo(a,h)anthracene and indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene, respectively. Furthermore, the concentrations of PAHs in municipality (urban) childcare centers were higher than rural childcare centers area of Nakhon Ratchasima province. The risks associated with exposure to PAHs were evaluated using the TEF approach. The estimated value of lifetime lung cancer risks children in urban were significantly (p < 0.05) 2 times of children in rural, thus demonstrating that exposure to PAHs at levels found at urban site may be cause potential health risks.

Estimation of the Parameters in a Two-State System Coupled to a Squeezed Bath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yao-Hua; Yang, Hai-Feng; Tan, Yong-Gang; Tao, Ya-Ping

2018-04-01

Estimation of the phase and weight parameters of a two-state system in a squeezed bath by calculating quantum Fisher information is investigated. The results show that, both for the phase estimation and for the weight estimation, the quantum Fisher information always decays with time and changes periodically with the phases. The estimation precision can be enhanced by choosing the proper values of the phases and the squeezing parameter. These results can be provided as an analysis reference for the practical application of the parameter estimation in a squeezed bath.

Comparative Analysis of Various Single-tone Frequency Estimation Techniques in High-order Instantaneous Moments Based Phase Estimation Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajshekhar, G.; Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

2010-04-01

For phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM) based method was recently developed which relies on piecewise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients using the HIM operator. A crucial step in the method is mapping the polynomial coefficient estimation to single-tone frequency determination for which various techniques exist. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of the HIM operator based method in using different single-tone frequency estimation techniques for phase estimation. The analysis is supplemented by simulation results.

Parameter dimension of turbulence-induced phase errors and its effects on estimation in phase diversity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thelen, Brian J.; Paxman, Richard G.

1994-01-01

The method of phase diversity has been used in the context of incoherent imaging to estimate jointly an object that is being imaged and phase aberrations induced by atmospheric turbulence. The method requires a parametric model for the phase-aberration function. Typically, the parameters are coefficients to a finite set of basis functions. Care must be taken in selecting a parameterization that properly balances accuracy in the representation of the phase-aberration function with stability in the estimates. It is well known that over parameterization can result in unstable estimates. Thus a certain amount of model mismatch is often desirable. We derive expressions that quantify the bias and variance in object and aberration estimates as a function of parameter dimension.

Menstrual cycle phase and single tablet antiretroviral medication adherence in women with HIV.

PubMed

Hessol, Nancy A; Holman, Susan; Minkoff, Howard; Cohen, Mardge H; Golub, Elizabeth T; Kassaye, Seble; Karim, Roksana; Sosanya, Oluwakemi; Shaheen, Christopher; Merhi, Zaher

2016-01-01

Suboptimal adherence to antiretroviral (ARV) therapy among HIV-infected individuals is associated with increased risk of progression to AIDS and the development of HIV resistance to ARV medications. To examine whether the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle is independently associated with suboptimal adherence to single tablet regimen (STR) ARV medication, data were analyzed from a multicenter cohort study of HIV-infected women who reported regular menstrual cycles and were taking an STR. In a cross-sectional analysis, suboptimal adherence to an STR among women in their follicular phase was compared with suboptimal adherence among women in their luteal phase. In two-way crossover analyses, whereby the same woman was assessed for STR medication adherence in both her follicular and luteal phases, the estimated exact conditional odds of non-adherence to an STR was measured. In adjusted logistic regression analysis of the cross-sectional data (N=327), women with ≤12 years of education were more than three times more likely to have suboptimal adherence (OR=3.6, p=.04) compared to those with >12 years of education. Additionally, women with Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) scores ≥23 were 2.5-times more likely to have suboptimal adherence (OR=2.6, p=.02) compared to those with CES-D scores <23. In conditional logistic regression analyses of the crossover data (N=184), having childcare responsibilities was associated with greater odds of ≤95% adherence. Menstrual cycle phase was not associated with STR adherence in either the cross-sectional or crossover analyses. The lack of association between phase of the menstrual cycle and adherence to an STR in HIV-infected women means attention can be given to other more important risk factors for suboptimal adherence, such as depression, level of education, and childcare responsibilities.

Phase and Pupil Amplitude Recovery for JWST Space-Optics Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, B. H.; Zielinski, T. P.; Smith, J. S.; Bolcar, M. R.; Aronstein, D. L.; Fienup, J. R.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the phase and pupil amplitude recovery for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam). It includes views of the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM), the NIRCam, examples of Phase Retrieval Data, Ghost Irradiance, Pupil Amplitude Estimation, Amplitude Retrieval, Initial Plate Scale Estimation using the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF), Pupil Amplitude Estimation vs lambda, Pupil Amplitude Estimation vs. number of Images, Pupil Amplitude Estimation vs Rotation (clocking), and Typical Phase Retrieval Results Also included is information about the phase retrieval approach, Non-Linear Optimization (NLO) Optimized Diversity Functions, and Least Square Error vs. Starting Pupil Amplitude.

Impact of electronic chemotherapy order forms on prescribing errors at an urban medical center: results from an interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Elsaid, K; Truong, T; Monckeberg, M; McCarthy, H; Butera, J; Collins, C

2013-12-01

To evaluate the impact of electronic standardized chemotherapy templates on incidence and types of prescribing errors. A quasi-experimental interrupted time series with segmented regression. A 700-bed multidisciplinary tertiary care hospital with an ambulatory cancer center. A multidisciplinary team including oncology physicians, nurses, pharmacists and information technologists. Standardized, regimen-specific, chemotherapy prescribing forms were developed and implemented over a 32-month period. Trend of monthly prevented prescribing errors per 1000 chemotherapy doses during the pre-implementation phase (30 months), immediate change in the error rate from pre-implementation to implementation and trend of errors during the implementation phase. Errors were analyzed according to their types: errors in communication or transcription, errors in dosing calculation and errors in regimen frequency or treatment duration. Relative risk (RR) of errors in the post-implementation phase (28 months) compared with the pre-implementation phase was computed with 95% confidence interval (CI). Baseline monthly error rate was stable with 16.7 prevented errors per 1000 chemotherapy doses. A 30% reduction in prescribing errors was observed with initiating the intervention. With implementation, a negative change in the slope of prescribing errors was observed (coefficient = -0.338; 95% CI: -0.612 to -0.064). The estimated RR of transcription errors was 0.74; 95% CI (0.59-0.92). The estimated RR of dosing calculation errors was 0.06; 95% CI (0.03-0.10). The estimated RR of chemotherapy frequency/duration errors was 0.51; 95% CI (0.42-0.62). Implementing standardized chemotherapy-prescribing templates significantly reduced all types of prescribing errors and improved chemotherapy safety.

Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Endemicity in Indonesia in 2010

PubMed Central

Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Rogayah, Hanifah; Kusriastuti, Rita; Wismarini, Desak M.; Tarmizi, Siti N.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

2011-01-01

Background Malaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010. Methods Plasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006–2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985–2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2–10 year old PfPR data (PfPR2–10) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR2–10 endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface. Results We estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas. Conclusion While further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of future strategies against this 2010 baseline and ultimately improve their evidence-based malaria control strategies. PMID:21738634

Cardiovascular safety with linagliptin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a pre-specified, prospective, and adjudicated meta-analysis of a phase 3 programme.

PubMed

Johansen, Odd Erik; Neubacher, Dietmar; von Eynatten, Maximilian; Patel, Sanjay; Woerle, Hans-Juergen

2012-01-10

This study investigated the cardiovascular (CV) safety profile of the dipeptidyl peptidase (DPP)-4 inhibitor linagliptin versus comparator treatments. This was a pre-specified meta-analysis of CV events in linagliptin or comparator-treated patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from eight Phase 3 studies. All suspected CV events were prospectively adjudicated by a blinded independent expert committee. The primary endpoint was a composite of CV death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and hospitalization for unstable angina. Three secondary composite endpoints derived from the adjudicated CV events were also pre-specified. Risk estimates were calculated using several statistical methods including Cox regression analysis. Of 5239 treated patients (mean ± SD HbA1c 65 ± 10 mmol/mol [8.0 ± 0.9%], age 58 ± 10 years, BMI 29 ± 5 kg/m2), 3319 received linagliptin once daily (5 mg, 3159; 10 mg, 160) and 1920 received comparators (placebo, 977; glimepiride 1-4 mg, 781; voglibose 0.6 mg, 162). Cumulative exposure (patient-years) was 2060 for linagliptin and 1372 for comparators. Primary CV events occurred in 11 (0.3%) patients receiving linagliptin and 23 (1.2%) receiving comparators. The hazard ratio (HR) for the primary endpoint showed significantly lower risk with linagliptin than comparators (HR 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16-0.70]) as did estimates for all secondary endpoints (HR ranging from 0.34 to 0.55 [all upper 95% CIs < 1.0]). These results from a large Phase 3 programme support the hypothesis that linagliptin may have CV benefits in patients with T2DM. © 2012 Johansen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alice T.; Gunn, Todd; Pham, Tuan; Ricaldi, Ron

1994-01-01

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Cardiac dysfunction in the trastuzumab clinical trials experience.

PubMed

Seidman, Andrew; Hudis, Clifford; Pierri, Mary Kathryn; Shak, Steven; Paton, Virginia; Ashby, Mark; Murphy, Maureen; Stewart, Stanford J; Keefe, Deborah

2002-03-01

This study sought to estimate cardiac dysfunction (CD) risk for patients receiving trastuzumab; to characterize observed CD by severity, treatment, and clinical outcome; to assess effects of baseline clinical risk factors on CD; and to assess effects of cumulative doses of anthracyclines and trastuzumab on CD. A retrospective review of records for patients enrolled onto any of seven phase II and III trastuzumab clinical trials was performed. Predefined criteria were used for the diagnosis, and the New York Heart Association functional classification system was used to document CD severity. Product-limit estimates were used to summarize the cumulative anthracycline and trastuzumab doses at the time of CD onset. Patients treated with trastuzumab were found to be at an increased risk for CD. The incidence was greatest in patients receiving concomitant trastuzumab and anthracycline plus cyclophosphamide (27%). The risk was substantially lower in patients receiving paclitaxel and trastuzumab (13%) or trastuzumab alone (3% to 7%); however, most of these patients had received prior anthracycline therapy. CD was noted in 8% of patients receiving anthracycline plus cyclophosphamide and 1% receiving paclitaxel alone. Most trastuzumab-treated patients developing CD were symptomatic (75%), and most improved with standard treatment for congestive heart failure (79%). Trastuzumab is associated with an increased risk of CD, which is greatest in patients receiving concurrent anthracyclines. In most patients with metastatic breast cancer, the risk of CD can be justified given the improvement in overall survival previously reported with trastuzumab.

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2004-2011 Passenger Cars and LTVs” (LBNL Phase 1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom P.

In its 2012 report NHTSA simulated the effect four fleetwide mass reduction scenarios would have on the change in annual fatalities. NHTSA estimated that the most aggressive of these scenarios (reducing mass 5.2% in heavier light trucks and 2.6% in all other vehicles types except lighter cars) would result in a small reduction in societal fatalities. LBNL replicated the methodology NHTSA used to simulate six mass reduction scenarios, including the mass reductions recommended in the 2015 NRC committee report, and estimated in 2021 and 2025 by EPA in the TAR, using the updated data through 2012. The analysis indicates thatmore » the estimated x change in fatalities under each scenario based on the updated analysis is comparable to that in the 2012 analysis, but less beneficial or more detrimental than that in the 2016 analysis. For example, an across the board 100-lb reduction in mass would result in an estimated 157 additional annual fatalities based on the 2012 analysis, but would result in only an estimated 91 additional annual fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, and an additional 87 fatalities based on the current analysis. The mass reductions recommended by the 2015 NRC committee report6 would result in a 224 increase in annual fatalities in the 2012 analysis, a 344 decrease in annual fatalities in the 2016 analysis, and a 141 increase in fatalities in the current analysis. The mass reductions EPA estimated for 2025 in the TAR7 would result in a 203 decrease in fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, but an increase of 39 fatalities based on the current analysis. These results support NHTSA’s conclusion from its 2012 study that, when footprint is held fixed, “no judicious combination of mass reductions in the various classes of vehicles results in a statistically significant fatality increase and many potential combinations are safety-neutral as point estimates.”Like the previous NHTSA studies, this updated report concludes that the estimated effect of mass reduction while maintaining footprint on societal U.S. fatality risk is small, and not statistically significant at the 95% or 90% confidence level for all vehicle types based on the jack-knife method NHTSA used. This report also finds that the estimated effects of other control variables, such as vehicle type, specific safety technologies, and crash conditions such as whether the crash occurred at night, in a rural county, or on a high-speed road, on risk are much larger, in some cases two orders of magnitude larger, than the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, this report shows that after accounting for the many vehicle, driver, and crash variables NHTSA used in its regression analyses, there remains a wide variation in risk by vehicle make and model, and this variation is unrelated to vehicle mass. Although the purpose of the NHTSA and LBNL reports is to estimate the effect of vehicle mass reduction on societal risk, this is not exactly what the regression models are estimating. Rather, they are estimating the recent historical relationship between mass and risk, after accounting for most measurable differences between vehicles, drivers, and crash times and locations. In essence, the regression models are comparing the risk of a 2600-lb Dodge Neon with that of a 2500-lb Honda Civic, after attempting to account for all other differences between the two vehicles. The models are not estimating the effect of literally removing 100 pounds from the Neon, leaving everything else unchanged. In addition, the analyses are based on the relationship of vehicle mass and footprint on risk for recent vehicle designs (model year 2004 to 2011). These relationships may or may not continue into the future as manufacturers utilize new vehicle designs and incorporate new technologies, such as more extensive use of strong lightweight materials and specific safety technologies. Therefore, throughout this report we use the phrase “the estimated effect of mass (or footprint) reduction on risk” as shorthand for “the estimated change in risk as a function of its relationship to mass (or footprint) for vehicle models of recent design.”« less

A decision directed detector for the phase incoherent Gaussian channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kazakos, D.

1975-01-01

A vector digital signalling scheme is proposed for simultaneous adaptive data transmission and phase estimation. The use of maximum likelihood estimation methods predicts a better performance than the phase-locked loop. The phase estimate is shown to converge to the true value, so that the adaptive nature of the detector effectively achieves phase acquisition and improvement in performance. No separate synchronization interval is required and phase fluctuations can be tracked simultaneously with the transmission of information.

Marginal estimator for the aberrations of a space telescope by phase diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Amandine; Mugnier, Laurent; Idier, Jérôme

2017-11-01

In this communication, we propose a novel method for estimating the aberrations of a space telescope from phase diversity data. The images recorded by such a telescope can be degraded by optical aberrations due to design, fabrication or misalignments. Phase diversity is a technique that allows the estimation of aberrations. The only estimator found in the relevant literature is based on a joint estimation of the aberrated phase and the observed object. We recall this approach and study the behavior of this joint estimator by means of simulations. We propose a novel marginal estimator of the sole phase. it is obtained by integrating the observed object out of the problem; indeed, this object is a nuisance parameter in our problem. This reduces drastically the number of unknown and provides better asymptotic properties. This estimator is implemented and its properties are validated by simulation. its performance is equal or even better than that of the joint estimator for the same computing cost.

Brownfields and health risks--air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment at landfill redevelopment sites.

PubMed

Ofungwu, Joseph; Eget, Steven

2006-07-01

Redevelopment of landfill sites in the New Jersey-New York metropolitan area for recreational (golf courses), commercial, and even residential purposes seems to be gaining acceptance among municipal planners and developers. Landfill gas generation, which includes methane and potentially toxic nonmethane compounds usually continues long after closure of the landfill exercise phase. It is therefore prudent to evaluate potential health risks associated with exposure to gas emissions before redevelopment of the landfill sites as recreational, commercial, and, especially, residential properties. Unacceptably high health risks would call for risk management measures such as limiting the development to commercial/recreational rather than residential uses, stringent gas control mechanisms, interior air filtration, etc. A methodology is presented for applying existing models to estimate residual landfill hazardous compounds emissions and to quantify associated health risks. Besides the toxic gas constituents of landfill emissions, other risk-related issues concerning buried waste, landfill leachate, and explosive gases were qualitatively evaluated. Five contiguously located landfill sites in New Jersey intended for residential and recreational redevelopment were used to exemplify the approach.

Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

1977-01-01

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.

Experimental demonstration of cheap and accurate phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudinger, Kenneth; Kimmel, Shelby; Lobser, Daniel; Maunz, Peter

We demonstrate experimental implementation of robust phase estimation (RPE) to learn the phases of X and Y rotations on a trapped Yb+ ion qubit.. Unlike many other phase estimation protocols, RPE does not require ancillae nor near-perfect state preparation and measurement operations. Additionally, its computational requirements are minimal. Via RPE, using only 352 experimental samples per phase, we estimate phases of implemented gates with errors as small as 10-4 radians, as validated using gate set tomography. We also demonstrate that these estimates exhibit Heisenberg scaling in accuracy. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Risk-Benefit Analysis of Pediatric-Inspired Versus Hyperfractionated Cyclophosphamide, Vincristine, Doxorubicin, and Dexamethasone Protocols for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in Adolescents and Young Adults.

PubMed

Guzauskas, Gregory F; Villa, Kathleen F; Vanhove, Geertrui F; Fisher, Vicki L; Veenstra, David L

2017-03-01

To estimate the risk-benefit trade-off of a pediatric-inspired regimen versus hyperfractionated cyclophosphamide, vincristine, doxorubicin, and dexamethasone (hyper-CVAD) for first-line treatment of adolescents/young adult (AYA; ages 16-39 years) patients with Philadelphia-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Patient outcomes were simulated using a 6-state Markov model, including complete response (CR), no CR, first relapse, second CR, second relapse, and death. A Weibull distribution was fit to the progression-free survival curve of hyper-CVAD-treated AYA patients from a single-center study, and comparable patient data from a retrospective study of pediatric regimen-treated AYA patients were utilized to estimate a relative progression difference (hazard ratio = 0.51) and model survival differences. Health-state utilities were estimated based on treatment stage, with an assumption that the pediatric protocol had 0.10 disutility compared with hyper-CVAD before the maintenance phase of treatment. Total life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were compared between treatment protocols at 1, 5, and 10 years, with additional probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Treatment with the pediatric-inspired protocol was associated with a 0.04 increase in life-years, but a 0.01 decrease in QALYs at 1 year. By years 5 and 10, the pediatric-inspired protocol resulted in 0.18 and 0.24 increase in life-years and 0.25 and 0.32 increase in QALYs, respectively, relative to hyper-CVAD. The lower quality of life associated with the induction and intensification phases of pediatric treatment was offset by more favorable progression-free survival and overall survival relative to hyper-CVAD. Our exploratory analysis suggests that, compared with hyper-CVAD, pediatric-inspired protocols may increase life-years throughout treatment stages and QALYs in the long term.

Substitution scenario in follow-up of chronic cancer patients in primary care: prevalence, disease duration and estimated extra consultation time.

PubMed

van Dipten, C; Olde Hartman, T C; Biermans, M C J; Assendelft, W J J

2016-02-01

The incidence of cancer as well as survival rates for it are increasing. It is debated whether care in the chronic phase of cancer can be positioned in primary care due to doubts about capacity and workload. To estimate GPs' extra consultation time if they assume responsibility for the care in the chronic phase of cancer. Retrospective cohort study. Estimation of extra consultation time by quantifying prevalence, incidence, survival, number of chronic cancer patients, current practice contacts and registration of risk factors in patients with all types of cancers. The most prevalent types of cancer (with 5-year survival rates) are as follows: breast cancer (91.5%), colorectal cancer (63.8%), prostate cancer (78.3%), melanoma (91.9%) and bladder and urinary tract cancer (77.3%). Primary care practices include ~32 chronic cancer patients, with a potential extra consultation time of ~19 hours per year per 1000 patients. One-third (35%) are already in a chronic disease management programme and 57% were diagnosed >5 years ago. Registration of risk factors for cancer is incomplete, but of better quality when comorbidity is present. Numbers of chronic cancer patients and possible time investment by primary care professionals in the case of a substitution scenario should not be a limiting factor for transition of follow-up from secondary to primary care, as most of the patients were diagnosed >5 years ago and a large proportion of these patients are already monitored in an existing chronic care programme. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Testing cardiovascular drug safety and efficacy in randomized trials.

PubMed

FitzGerald, Garret A

2014-03-28

Randomized trials provide the gold standard evidence on which rests the decision to approve novel therapeutics for clinical use. They are large and expensive and provide average but unbiased estimates of efficacy and risk. Concern has been expressed about how unrepresentative populations and conditions that pertain in randomized trials might be of the real world, including concerns about the homogeneity of the biomedical and adherence characteristics of volunteers entered into such trials, the dose and constancy of drug administration and the mixture of additional medications that are restricted in such trials but might influence outcome in practice. A distinction has been drawn between trials that establish efficacy and those that demonstrate effectiveness, drugs that patients actually consume in the real world for clinical benefit. However, randomized controlled trials remain the gold standard for establishing efficacy and the testing of effectiveness with less rigorous approaches is a secondary, albeit important consideration. Despite this, there is an appreciation that average results may conceal considerable interindividual variation in drug response, leading to a failure to appreciate clinical value or risk in subsets of patients. Thus, attempts are now being made to individualize risk estimates by modulating those derived from large randomized trials with the individual baseline risk estimates based on demographic and biological criteria-the individual Numbers Needed to Treat to obtain a benefit, such as a life saved. Here, I will consider some reasons why large phase 3 trials-by far the most expensive element of drug development-may fail to address the unmet medical needs, which should justify such effort and investment.

Assessing human health response in life cycle assessment using ED10s and DALYs: part 1--Cancer effects.

PubMed

Crettaz, Pierre; Pennington, David; Rhomberg, Lorenz; Brand, Kevin; Jolliet, Olivier

2002-10-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a framework for comparing products according to their total estimated environmental impact, summed over all chemical emissions and activities associated with a product at all stages in its life cycle (from raw material acquisition, manufacturing, use, to final disposal). For each chemical involved, the exposure associated with the mass released into the environment, integrated over time and space, is multiplied by a toxicological measure to estimate the likelihood of effects and their potential consequences. In this article, we explore the use of quantitative methods drawn from conventional single-chemical regulatory risk assessments to create a procedure for the estimation of the cancer effect measure in the impact phase of LCA. The approach is based on the maximum likelihood estimate of the effect dose inducing a 10% response over background, ED10, and default linear low-dose extrapolation using the slope betaED10 (0.1/ED10). The calculated effects may correspond to residual risks below current regulatory compliance requirements that occur over multiple generations and at multiple locations; but at the very least they represent a "using up" of some portion of the human population's ability to accommodate emissions. Preliminary comparisons are performed with existing measures, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA's) slope factor measure q1*. By analyzing bioassay data for 44 chemicals drawn from the EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database, we explore estimating ED10 from more readily available information such as the median tumor dose rate TD50 and the median single lethal dose LD50. Based on the TD50, we then estimate the ED10 for more than 600 chemicals. Differences in potential consequences, or severity, are addressed by combining betaED10 with the measure disability adjusted life years per affected person, DALYp. Most of the variation among chemicals for cancer effects is found to be due to differences in the slope factors (betaED10) ranging from 10(-4) up to 10(4) (risk of cancer/mg/kg-day).

Estimating atmospheric parameters and reducing noise for multispectral imaging

DOEpatents

Conger, James Lynn

2014-02-25

A method and system for estimating atmospheric radiance and transmittance. An atmospheric estimation system is divided into a first phase and a second phase. The first phase inputs an observed multispectral image and an initial estimate of the atmospheric radiance and transmittance for each spectral band and calculates the atmospheric radiance and transmittance for each spectral band, which can be used to generate a "corrected" multispectral image that is an estimate of the surface multispectral image. The second phase inputs the observed multispectral image and the surface multispectral image that was generated by the first phase and removes noise from the surface multispectral image by smoothing out change in average deviations of temperatures.

Modified fast frequency acquisition via adaptive least squares algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Rajendra (Inventor)

1992-01-01

A method and the associated apparatus for estimating the amplitude, frequency, and phase of a signal of interest are presented. The method comprises the following steps: (1) inputting the signal of interest; (2) generating a reference signal with adjustable amplitude, frequency and phase at an output thereof; (3) mixing the signal of interest with the reference signal and a signal 90 deg out of phase with the reference signal to provide a pair of quadrature sample signals comprising respectively a difference between the signal of interest and the reference signal and a difference between the signal of interest and the signal 90 deg out of phase with the reference signal; (4) using the pair of quadrature sample signals to compute estimates of the amplitude, frequency, and phase of an error signal comprising the difference between the signal of interest and the reference signal employing a least squares estimation; (5) adjusting the amplitude, frequency, and phase of the reference signal from the numerically controlled oscillator in a manner which drives the error signal towards zero; and (6) outputting the estimates of the amplitude, frequency, and phase of the error signal in combination with the reference signal to produce a best estimate of the amplitude, frequency, and phase of the signal of interest. The preferred method includes the step of providing the error signal as a real time confidence measure as to the accuracy of the estimates wherein the closer the error signal is to zero, the higher the probability that the estimates are accurate. A matrix in the estimation algorithm provides an estimate of the variance of the estimation error.

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth's magnetic field, space radi-ation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We es-timated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration po-tential (φ). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Overview of the reanalysis of the Harvard Six Cities Study and American Cancer Society Study of Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality.

PubMed

Krewski, Daniel; Burnett, Richard T; Goldberg, Mark S; Hoover, B Kristin; Siemiatycki, Jack; Jerrett, Michael; Abrahamowicz, Michal; White, Warren H

This article provides an overview of the Reanalysis Study of the Harvard Six Cities and the American Cancer Society (ACS) studies of particulate air pollution and mortality. The previous findings of the studies have been subject to debate. In response, a reanalysis team, comprised of Canadian and American researchers, was invited to participate in an independent reanalysis project to address the concerns. Phase I of the reanalysis involved the design of data audits to determine whether each study conformed to the consistency and accuracy of their data. Phase II of the reanalysis involved conducting a series of comprehensive analyses using alternative statistical methods. Alternative models were also used to identify covariates that may confound or modify the association of particulate air pollution as well as identify sensitive population subgroups. The audit demonstrated that the data in the original analyses were of high quality, as were the risk estimates reported by the original investigators. The sensitivity analysis illustrated that the mortality risk estimates reported in both studies were found to be robust against alternative Cox models. Detailed investigation of the covariate effects found a significant modifying effect of education and a relative risk of mortality associated with fine particles and declining education levels. The study team applied spatial analytic methods to the ACS data, resulting in various levels of spatial autocorrelations supporting the reported association for fine particles mortality of the original investigators as well as demonstrating a significant association between sulfur dioxide and mortality. Collectively, our reanalysis suggest that mortality may be attributable to more than one component of the complex mixture of ambient air pollutants for U.S. urban areas.

Onset of a pandemic: characterizing the initial phase of the swine flu (H1N1) epidemic in Israel

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The swine influenza H1N1 first identified in Mexico, spread rapidly across the globe and is considered the fastest moving pandemic in history. The early phase of an outbreak, in which data is relatively scarce, presents scientific challenges on key issues such as: scale, severity and immunity which are fundamental for establishing sound and rapid policy schemes. Our analysis of an Israeli dataset aims at understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of H1N1 in its initial phase. Methods We constructed and analyzed a unique dataset from Israel on all confirmed cases (between April 26 to July 7, 2009), representing most swine flu cases in this period. We estimated and characterized fundamental epidemiological features of the pandemic in Israel (e.g. effective reproductive number, age-class distribution, at-risk social groups, infections between sexes, and spatial dynamics). Contact data collected during this stage was used to estimate the generation time distribution of the pandemic. Results We found a low effective reproductive number (Re = 1.06), an age-class distribution of infected individuals (skewed towards ages 18-25), at-risk social groups (soldiers and ultra Orthodox Jews), and significant differences in infections between sexes (skewed towards males). In terms of spatial dynamics, the pandemic spread from the central coastal plain of Israel to other regions, with higher infection rates in more densely populated sub-districts with higher income households. Conclusions Analysis of high quality data holds much promise in reducing uncertainty regarding fundamental aspects of the initial phase of an outbreak (e.g. the effective reproductive number Re, age-class distribution, at-risk social groups). The formulation for determining the effective reproductive number Re used here has many advantages for studying the initial phase of the outbreak since it neither assumes exponential growth of infectives and is independent of the reporting rate. The finding of a low Re (close to unity threshold), combined with identification of social groups with high transmission rates would have enabled the containment of swine flu during the summer in Israel. Our unique use of contact data provided new insights into the differential dynamics of influenza in different ages and sexes, and should be promoted in future epidemiological studies. Thus our work highlights the importance of conducting a comprehensive study of the initial stage of a pandemic in real time. PMID:21492430

Body size and mortality rates in coral reef fishes: a three-phase relationship.

PubMed

Goatley, Christopher Harry Robert; Bellwood, David Roy

2016-10-26

Body size is closely linked to mortality rates in many animals, although the overarching patterns in this relationship have rarely been considered for multiple species. A meta-analysis of published size-specific mortality rates for coral reef fishes revealed an exponential decline in mortality rate with increasing body size, however, within this broad relationship there are three distinct phases. Phase one is characterized by naive fishes recruiting to reefs, which suffer extremely high mortality rates. In this well-studied phase, fishes must learn quickly to survive the many predation risks. After just a few days, the surviving fishes enter phase two, in which small increases in body size result in pronounced increases in lifespan (estimated 11 d mm -1 ). Remarkably, approximately 50% of reef fish individuals remain in phase two throughout their lives. Once fishes reach a size threshold of about 43 mm total length (TL) they enter phase three, where mortality rates are relatively low and the pressure to grow is presumably, significantly reduced. These phases provide a clearer understanding of the impact of body size on mortality rates in coral reef fishes and begin to reveal critical insights into the energetic and trophic dynamics of coral reefs. © 2016 The Author(s).

Risks of Large Portfolios

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Shi, Xiaofeng

2014-01-01

The risk of a large portfolio is often estimated by substituting a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of such a risk estimator is largely unknown. We study factor-based risk estimators under a large amount of assets, and introduce a high-confidence level upper bound (H-CLUB) to assess the estimation. The H-CLUB is constructed using the confidence interval of risk estimators with either known or unknown factors. We derive the limiting distribution of the estimated risks in high dimensionality. We find that when the dimension is large, the factor-based risk estimators have the same asymptotic variance no matter whether the factors are known or not, which is slightly smaller than that of the sample covariance-based estimator. Numerically, H-CLUB outperforms the traditional crude bounds, and provides an insightful risk assessment. In addition, our simulated results quantify the relative error in the risk estimation, which is usually negligible using 3-month daily data. PMID:26195851

An Analysis of the Relationship between Casualty Risk Per Crash and Vehicle Mass and Footprint for Model Year 2003-2010 Light-Duty Vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom P.

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office funds research on development of technologies to improve the fuel economy of both light- and heavy-duty vehicles, including advanced combustion systems, improved batteries and electric drive systems, and new lightweight materials. Of these approaches to increase fuel economy and reduce fuel consumption, reducing vehicle mass through more extensive use of strong lightweight materials is perhaps the easiest and least expensive method; however, there is a concern that reducing vehicle mass may lead to more fatalities. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has conducted several analyses to better understand the relationship between vehicle mass,more » size and safety, in order to ameliorate concerns that down-weighting vehicles will inherently lead to more fatalities. These analyses include recreating the regression analyses conducted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that estimate the relationship between mass reduction and U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile of travel (VMT), while holding vehicle size (i.e. footprint, wheelbase times track width) constant; these analyses are referred to as LBNL Phase 1 analysis. In addition, LBNL has conducted additional analysis of the relationship between mass and the two components of risk per VMT, crash frequency (crashes per VMT) and risk once a crash has occurred (risk per crash); these analyses are referred to as LBNL Phase 2 analysis.« less

Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

PubMed Central

Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

2016-01-01

Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The generalized-growth concept also provides us a compelling argument for the unexpected extinction of certain emerging disease outbreaks during the early ascending phase. Overall, our approach promotes a more reliable and data-driven characterization of the early epidemic phase, which is important for accurate estimation of the reproduction number and prediction of disease impact. PMID:27707909

Experimental Bayesian Quantum Phase Estimation on a Silicon Photonic Chip.

PubMed

Paesani, S; Gentile, A A; Santagati, R; Wang, J; Wiebe, N; Tew, D P; O'Brien, J L; Thompson, M G

2017-03-10

Quantum phase estimation is a fundamental subroutine in many quantum algorithms, including Shor's factorization algorithm and quantum simulation. However, so far results have cast doubt on its practicability for near-term, nonfault tolerant, quantum devices. Here we report experimental results demonstrating that this intuition need not be true. We implement a recently proposed adaptive Bayesian approach to quantum phase estimation and use it to simulate molecular energies on a silicon quantum photonic device. The approach is verified to be well suited for prethreshold quantum processors by investigating its superior robustness to noise and decoherence compared to the iterative phase estimation algorithm. This shows a promising route to unlock the power of quantum phase estimation much sooner than previously believed.

Results of a phase II trial for high-risk neuroblastoma treatment protocol JN-H-07: a report from the Japan Childhood Cancer Group Neuroblastoma Committee (JNBSG).

PubMed

Hishiki, Tomoro; Matsumoto, Kimikazu; Ohira, Miki; Kamijo, Takehiko; Shichino, Hiroyuki; Kuroda, Tatsuo; Yoneda, Akihiro; Soejima, Toshinori; Nakazawa, Atsuko; Takimoto, Tetsuya; Yokota, Isao; Teramukai, Satoshi; Takahashi, Hideto; Fukushima, Takashi; Kaneko, Takashi; Hara, Junichi; Kaneko, Michio; Ikeda, Hitoshi; Tajiri, Tatsuro; Nakagawara, Akira

2018-04-26

The Japanese Children's Cancer Group (JCCG) Neuroblastoma Committee (JNBSG) conducted a phase II clinical trial for high-risk neuroblastoma treatment. We report the result of the protocol treatment and associated genomic aberration studies. JN-H-07 was a single-arm, late phase II trial for high-risk neuroblastoma treatment with open enrollment from June 2007 to February 2009. Eligible patients underwent five courses of induction chemotherapy followed by high-dose chemotherapy with hematopoietic stem cell rescue. Surgery for the primary tumor was scheduled after three or four courses of induction chemotherapy. Radiotherapy was administered to the primary tumor site and to any bone metastases present at the end of induction chemotherapy. The estimated 3-year progression-free and overall survival rates of the 50 patients enrolled were 36.5 ± 7.0 and 69.5 ± 6.6%, respectively. High-dose chemotherapy caused severe toxicity including three treatment-related deaths. In response to this, the high-dose chemotherapy regimen was modified during the trial by infusing melphalan before administering carboplatin and etoposide. The modified high-dose chemotherapy regimen was less toxic. Univariate analysis revealed that patients younger than 547 days and patients whose tumor showed a whole chromosomal gains / losses pattern had a significantly poor prognosis. Notably, the progression-free survival of cases with MYCN amplification were not inferior to those without MYCN amplification. The outcome of patients treated with the JN-H-07 protocol showed improvement over the results reported by previous studies conducted in Japan. Molecular and genetic profiling may enable a more precise stratification of the high-risk cohort.

Comparison of human immunodeficiency virus assays in window phase and elite controller samples: viral load distribution and implications for transmission risk

PubMed Central

Vermeulen, Marion; Coleman, Charl; Mitchel, Josephine; Reddy, Ravi; van Drimmelen, Harry; Fickett, Tracy; Busch, Michael; Lelie, Nico

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND After 3 years of individual-donation nucleic acid test (ID-NAT) screening by the South African National Blood Service (SANBS), a repository of 73 human immunodeficiency virus antibody (anti-HIV)-negative window period (WP)-yield samples and 28 anti-HIV–positive, HIV-RNA–negative elite controllers (ECs) became available for comparison of a p24 antigen (p24 Ag) assay (Innogenetics), two viral load assays (Siemens branch DNA [bDNA] 3.0 and Abbott real-time polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]), and three triplex NAT assays (Novartis Diagnostics Ultrio and Ultrio-Plus and Roche TaqScreen) by replicate testing of dilutions. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Viral loads were assessed by bDNA and RT-PCR assays and if below 100 copies (cps)/mL, by Ultrio limiting dilution probit analysis. The probability of virus transmission by WP and EC donations was estimated for different levels of the 50% minimum infectious dose (ID50) using Poisson distribution statistics. RESULTS The equal distribution of WP donations plotted by log HIV-RNA levels indicated a random appearance of donors in the ramp-up phase. The HIV p24 Ag assay detected 45% of WP samples and the cutoff crossing point was estimated at 8140 (bDNA)/ 22,710 (RT-PCR) cps/mL. On replicate retesting of 40 HIV p24 Ag–negative ID-NAT WP-yield samples Ultrio minipool (MP)8, Ultrio-Plus MP8, and TaqScreen MP6 detected 79, 81, and 78%, respectively. Modeling with an estimated ID50 of 31.6 virions/RBC indicated that 15% of p24 Ag–negative ID-NAT WP-yield donations would have transmitted HIV if MP6–8 NAT had been used. Only 2% of RBC transfusions from ECs are estimated to be infectious with a worst-case ID50 estimate of 316 virions. CONCLUSION Our analysis of viremia and infectivity of WP and EC donations enables comparison of the efficacy of NAT options in preventing HIV transmission risk. PMID:23445273

Comparison of human immunodeficiency virus assays in window phase and elite controller samples: viral load distribution and implications for transmission risk.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Marion; Coleman, Charl; Mitchel, Josephine; Reddy, Ravi; van Drimmelen, Harry; Fickett, Tracy; Busch, Michael; Lelie, Nico

2013-10-01

After 3 years of individual-donation nucleic acid test (ID-NAT) screening by the South African National Blood Service (SANBS), a repository of 73 human immunodeficiency virus antibody (anti-HIV)-negative window period (WP)-yield samples and 28 anti-HIV-positive, HIV-RNA-negative elite controllers (ECs) became available for comparison of a p24 antigen (p24 Ag) assay (Innogenetics), two viral load assays (Siemens branch DNA [bDNA] 3.0 and Abbott real-time polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]), and three triplex NAT assays (Novartis Diagnostics Ultrio and Ultrio-Plus and Roche TaqScreen) by replicate testing of dilutions. Viral loads were assessed by bDNA and RT-PCR assays and if below 100 copies (cps)/mL, by Ultrio limiting dilution probit analysis. The probability of virus transmission by WP and EC donations was estimated for different levels of the 50% minimum infectious dose (ID50 ) using Poisson distribution statistics. The equal distribution of WP donations plotted by log HIV-RNA levels indicated a random appearance of donors in the ramp-up phase. The HIV p24 Ag assay detected 45% of WP samples and the cutoff crossing point was estimated at 8140 (bDNA)/22,710 (RT-PCR) cps/mL. On replicate retesting of 40 HIV p24 Ag-negative ID-NAT WP-yield samples Ultrio minipool (MP)8, Ultrio-Plus MP8, and TaqScreen MP6 detected 79, 81, and 78%, respectively. Modeling with an estimated ID50 of 31.6 virions/RBC indicated that 15% of p24 Ag-negative ID-NAT WP-yield donations would have transmitted HIV if MP6-8 NAT had been used. Only 2% of RBC transfusions from ECs are estimated to be infectious with a worst-case ID50 estimate of 316 virions. Our analysis of viremia and infectivity of WP and EC donations enables comparison of the efficacy of NAT options in preventing HIV transmission risk. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

Estimating disease prevalence in two-phase studies.

PubMed

Alonzo, Todd A; Pepe, Margaret Sullivan; Lumley, Thomas

2003-04-01

Disease prevalence is ideally estimated using a 'gold standard' to ascertain true disease status on all subjects in a population of interest. In practice, however, the gold standard may be too costly or invasive to be applied to all subjects, in which case a two-phase design is often employed. Phase 1 data consisting of inexpensive and non-invasive screening tests on all study subjects are used to determine the subjects that receive the gold standard in the second phase. Naive estimates of prevalence in two-phase studies can be biased (verification bias). Imputation and re-weighting estimators are often used to avoid this bias. We contrast the forms and attributes of the various prevalence estimators. Distribution theory and simulation studies are used to investigate their bias and efficiency. We conclude that the semiparametric efficient approach is the preferred method for prevalence estimation in two-phase studies. It is more robust and comparable in its efficiency to imputation and other re-weighting estimators. It is also easy to implement. We use this approach to examine the prevalence of depression in adolescents with data from the Great Smoky Mountain Study.

Cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene incorporating the FRAX® algorithm in a European perspective.

PubMed

Borgström, F; Ström, O; Kleman, M; McCloskey, E; Johansson, H; Odén, A; Kanis, J A

2011-03-01

The cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene was compared to placebo in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK from a healthcare perspective using FRAX® for both fracture risks and for treatment efficacy. Cost/QALY differences were explained to a large extent by differences in fracture risk. In cost-effectiveness modelling of osteoporosis treatments, the fracture risk has traditionally been calculated with risk adjustments based on age, bone mineral density and prior fracture. However, knowledge of additional clinical risk factors contributes to fracture risk assessment as demonstrated by the FRAX® tool. Bazedoxifene, a new selective estrogen receptor modulator for the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis, has been shown in a phase III clinical trial to reduce the risk of osteoporotic fractures in women. In an analysis using FRAX®, the efficacy of bazedoxifene was greater in patients with higher fracture risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene compared to placebo in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK from a healthcare perspective using FRAX®. A Markov cohort model was adapted to incorporate the FRAX® risk factors. FRAX® produces relative risks for hip fractures and major osteoporotic fractures. Patients were given a 5-year intervention, reducing the risk of fractures in a risk-dependent manner. The effect of treatment on fractures was assumed to decline linearly over 5 years after the intervention. There are large cost/quality-adjusted life year variations between countries in the European setting studied. The base case values ranged from cost saving (Sweden) to EUR 105,450 (Spain) in 70-year-old women with a T-score of -2.5 SD and a prior fracture. Bazedoxifene can be a cost-effective treatment for postmenopausal osteoporosis. The variability between countries was explained to a large extent by differences in fracture risk, and the estimated cost-effectiveness was highly dependent on the population's FRAX®-estimated probability of major osteoporotic fracture.

Reducing inappropriate non-steroidal anti-inflammatory prescription in primary care patients with chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Keohane, David M; Dennehy, Thomas; Keohane, Kenneth P; Shanahan, Eamonn

2017-08-14

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reduce inappropriate non-steroidal anti-inflammatory prescribing in primary care patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Once diagnosed, CKD management involves delaying progression to end stage renal failure and preventing complications. It is well established that non-steroidal anti-inflammatories have a negative effect on kidney function and consequently, all nephrology consensus groups suggest avoiding this drug class in CKD. Design/methodology/approach The sampling criteria included all practice patients with a known CKD risk factor. This group was refined to include those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<60 ml/min per 1.73m2 (stage 3 CKD or greater). Phase one analysed how many prescriptions had occurred in this group over the preceding three months. The intervention involved creating an automated alert on at risk patient records if non-steroidal anti-inflammatories were prescribed and discussing the rationale with practice staff. The re-audit phase occurred three months' post intervention. Findings The study revealed 728/7,500 (9.7 per cent) patients at risk from CKD and 158 (2.1 per cent) who were subsequently found to have an eGFR<60 ml/min, indicating=stage 3 CKD. In phase one, 10.2 per cent of at risk patients had received a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory prescription in the preceding three months. Additionally, 6.2 per cent had received non-steroidal anti-inflammatories on repeat prescription. Phase two post intervention revealed a significant 75 per cent reduction in the total non-steroidal anti-inflammatories prescribed and a 90 per cent reduction in repeat non-steroidal anti-inflammatory prescriptions in those with CKD. Originality/value The study significantly reduced non-steroidal anti-inflammatory prescription in those with CKD in primary care settings. It also created a CKD register within the practice and an enduring medication alert system for individuals that risk nephrotoxic non-steroidal anti-inflammatory prescription. It established a safe, reliable and efficient process for reducing morbidity and mortality, improving quality of life and limiting the CKD associated health burden.

Education and risk of incident dementia during the premotor and motor phases of essential tremor (NEDICES).

PubMed

Benito-León, Julián; Contador, Israel; Louis, Elan D; Cosentino, Stephanie; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

2016-08-01

Individuals with late-onset essential tremor (ET) (e.g., older adults) seem to have an increased prevalence of mild cognitive impairment and dementia, and a higher risk of incident dementia. It is well-known that education has a protective role against dementia in individuals without a pre-existing neurologic disorder, but evidence regarding the maintenance of this effect during the premotor and motor phases of ET is unknown. Our aim was to determine the influence of education on the risk of dementia in a population-based cohort of ET patients and controls. In a prospective study (Neurological Disorders in Central Spain), participants ≥65 years old were evaluated twice: at baseline (1994-1995) and at follow-up (1997-1998). There were 3 groups: premotor (i.e., participants first diagnosed with incident ET at follow-up), prevalent ET (i.e., participants diagnosed with ET at baseline and at follow-up), and controls. Participants were stratified into lower education (≤primary studies) versus higher education (≥secondary studies) categories. Dementia risk was estimated using Cox proportional-hazards models (higher education control group = reference category). Among the participants, 3878 had a mean duration of follow-up of 3.2 years. Eight (16.7%) of 48 lower education premotor ET patients developed incident dementia versus 1 (3.3%) of 30 higher education premotor ET patients, 9 (7.1%) of 126 lower education prevalent ET patients, 7 (8.8%) of 80 higher education prevalent ET patients, and 92 (4.9%) of 1892 lower education controls (P < 0.001). In comparison to the higher education controls, the adjusted hazard ratios for incident dementia were 5.84 (lower education premotor ET, P < 0.001); 1.36 (higher education premotor ET, P = 0.76); 2.13 (lower education prevalent ET, P = 0.04); 2.79 (higher education prevalent ET, P = 0.01); and 1.66 (lower education controls, P = 0.01). Our results suggest that a higher educational attainment may ameliorate the risk of incident dementia during the premotor phase of ET, but not in the motor phase.

ESP: Economics of Shipyard Painting, Bid Estimating Transfer Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-11-10

Estimating Transfer Study Final Report i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During Phase I of the “Economics of Shipyard Painting” project, it became evident that detail...an SP-3 panel directive to establish a 2nd phase of the “Economics of Shipyard Painting” focussed on applying the detailed data collected in Phase I to...bid-stage estimating. During Phase II, a program was developed that worked in tandem with the detailed data collection effort laid out in Phase I

The High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) Program: Flight Demonstration Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLaat, John C.; Southwick, Robert D.; Gallops, George W.; Orme, John S.

1998-01-01

Future aircraft turbine engines, both commercial and military, must be able to accommodate expected increased levels of steady-state and dynamic engine-face distortion. The current approach of incorporating sufficient design stall margin to tolerate these increased levels of distortion would significantly reduce performance. The objective of the High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) program is to design, develop, and flight-demonstrate an advanced, integrated engine control system that uses measurement-based estimates of distortion to enhance engine stability. The resulting distortion tolerant control reduces the required design stall margin, with a corresponding increase in performance and decrease in fuel burn. The HISTEC concept has been developed and was successfully flight demonstrated on the F-15 ACTIVE aircraft during the summer of 1997. The flight demonstration was planned and carried out in two phases, the first to show distortion estimation, and the second to show distortion accommodation. Post-flight analysis shows that the HISTEC technologies are able to successfully estimate and accommodate distortion, transiently setting the stall margin requirement on-line and in real-time. This allows the design stall margin requirement to be reduced, which in turn can be traded for significantly increased performance and/or decreased weight. Flight demonstration of the HISTEC technologies has significantly reduced the risk of transitioning the technology to tactical and commercial engines.

MARK’s Quadrant scoring system: a symptom-based targeted screening tool for gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Tata, Mahadevan D.; Gurunathan, Ramesh; Palayan, Kandasami

2014-01-01

Background Gastric cancer is notably one of the leading causes of cancer-related death in the world. In Malaysia, these patients present in the advanced stage, thus narrowing the treatment options and making the surgery nearly impossible for successful curative resection. Failure to identify high-risk patients and delay in diagnostic endoscope procedure contributed to the delay in diagnosis. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a scoring system (MARK’s Quadrant) which can identify symptomatic patients who are at risk for gastric cancer. Methods A 3-phase approach was undertaken: Phase 1: development of the weighted scoring system; Phase 2: estimating positive predicting value of MARK’s Quadrant; and Phase 3: a) testing the validity of MARK’s Quadrant in an open-access endoscope system; and b) comparing its usefulness compared to conventional referral system. Results In phases 1 and 2, MARK’s Quadrant with weighted symptoms was developed. The sensitivity of MARK’s Quadrant is 88% and the specificity is 45.5% to detect cancerous and precancerous lesions of gastric. This was confirmed by the prospective data from phase 3 of this study where the diagnostic yield of MARK’s Quadrant to detect any pathological lesion was 95.2%. This score has a high accuracy efficiency of 75%, hence comparing to routine referral system it has an odds ratio (95%CI) of 10.98 (4.63-26.00), 6.71 (4.46-10.09) and 0.95 (0.06-0.15) (P<0.001 respectively) for cancer, precancerous lesion and benign lesion diagnosis respectively. Conclusion MARK’s Quadrant is a useful tool to detect early gastric cancer among symptomatic patients in a low incidence region. PMID:24714557

Paclitaxel, Ifosfamide, and Cisplatin Efficacy for First-Line Treatment of Patients With Intermediate- or Poor-Risk Germ Cell Tumors

PubMed Central

Hu, James; Dorff, Tanya B.; Lim, Kristina; Patil, Sujata; Woo, Kaitlin M.; Carousso, Maryann; Hughes, Amanda; Sheinfeld, Joel; Bains, Manjit; Daneshmand, Siamak; Ketchens, Charlene; Bajorin, Dean F.; Bosl, George J.; Quinn, David I.; Motzer, Robert J.

2016-01-01

Purpose Paclitaxel, ifosfamide, and cisplatin (TIP) achieved complete responses (CRs) in two thirds of patients with advanced germ cell tumors (GCTs) who relapsed after first-line chemotherapy with cisplatin and etoposide with or without bleomycin. We tested the efficacy of first-line TIP in patients with intermediate- or poor-risk disease. Patients and Methods In this prospective, multicenter, single-arm phase II trial, previously untreated patients with International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group poor-risk or modified intermediate-risk GCTs received four cycles of TIP (paclitaxel 240 mg/m2 over 2 days, ifosfamide 6 g/m2 over 5 days with mesna support, and cisplatin 100 mg/m2 over 5 days) once every 3 weeks with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor support. The primary end point was the CR rate. Results Of the first 41 evaluable patients, 28 (68%) achieved a CR, meeting the primary efficacy end point. After additional accrual on an extension phase, total enrollment was 60 patients, including 40 (67%) with poor risk and 20 (33%) with intermediate risk. Thirty-eight (68%) of 56 evaluable patients achieved a CR and seven (13%) achieved partial responses with negative markers (PR-negative) for a favorable response rate of 80%. Five of seven achieving PR-negative status had seminoma and therefore did not undergo postchemotherapy resection of residual masses. Estimated 3-year progression-free survival and overall survival rates were 72% (poor risk, 63%; intermediate risk, 90%) and 91% (poor risk, 87%; intermediate risk, 100%), respectively. Grade 3 to 4 toxicities consisted primarily of reversible hematologic or electrolyte abnormalities, including neutropenic fever in 18%. Conclusion TIP demonstrated efficacy as first-line therapy for intermediate- and poor-risk GCTs with an acceptable safety profile. Given higher rates of favorable response, progression-free survival, and overall survival compared with prior first-line studies, TIP warrants further study in this population. PMID:27185842

Source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, F.; Zhang, H.

2017-12-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the environment are of significant concern due to their high toxicity that may result in adverse health effects. PAHs measurements at the limited air quality monitoring stations alone are insufficient to gain a complete concept of ambient PAH levels. This study simulates the concentrations of PAHs in Louisiana and identifies the major emission sources. Speciation profiles for PAHs were prepared using data assembled from existing emission profile databases. The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emission (SMOKE) model was used to generate the estimated gridded emissions of 16 priority PAH species directly associated with health risks. The estimated emissions were then applied to simulate ambient concentrations of PAHs in Louisiana for January, April, July and October 2011 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model (v5.0.1). Through the formation, transport and deposition of PAHs species, the concentrations of PAHs species in gas phase and particulate phase were obtained. The spatial and temporal variations were analyzed and contributions of both local and regional major sources were quantified. This study provides important information for the prevention and treatment of PAHs in Louisiana.

Risk of renal failure with the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Caldeira, Daniel; Gonçalves, Nilza; Pinto, Fausto J; Costa, João; Ferreira, Joaquim J

2015-07-01

Vitamin K antagonists (VKA)-related nephropathy is a novel entity characterized by acute kidney injury related to International Normalized Ratio supratherapeutic levels. Non-vitamin K antagonists oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have a predictable dose-response relationship and an improved safety profile. We hypothesized that these drugs do not have an increased risk of incident renal failure, which may be detrimental for the use of NOACs. Systematic review and meta-analysis of phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Trials were searched through Medline, Cochrane Library and public assessment reports in August 2014. Primary outcome was renal failure. NOACs were evaluated against any comparator. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed by default, and pooled estimates were expressed as Risk Ratio (RR) and 95%CI. Heterogeneity was evaluated with I(2) test. Ten RCTs fulfilled inclusion criteria (one apixaban RCT, three dabigatran RCTs, and six rivaroxaban RCTs), enrolling 75 100 patients. Overall NOACs did not increase the risk of renal failure with an RR 0.96, 95%CI 0.88-1.05 compared with VKA or Low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH), without significant statistical heterogeneity (I(2)  = 3.5%). Compared with VKA, NOACs did not increase the risk of renal failure (RR 0.96, 95%CI 0.87-1.07; I(2)  = 17.8%; six RCTs). Rivaroxaban did not show differences in the incidence of renal failure compared with LMWH (RR 1.20, 95%CI 0.37-3.94; four trials), but there was an increased risk of creatinine elevation RR 1.25, 95%CI 1.08-1.45; I(2)  = 0%. NOACs had a similar risk of renal failure compared with VKA/LMWH in phase III RCTs. Post-marketing surveillance should be warranted. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

WEIGHTED LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION UNDER TWO-PHASE SAMPLING

PubMed Central

Saegusa, Takumi; Wellner, Jon A.

2013-01-01

We develop asymptotic theory for weighted likelihood estimators (WLE) under two-phase stratified sampling without replacement. We also consider several variants of WLEs involving estimated weights and calibration. A set of empirical process tools are developed including a Glivenko–Cantelli theorem, a theorem for rates of convergence of M-estimators, and a Donsker theorem for the inverse probability weighted empirical processes under two-phase sampling and sampling without replacement at the second phase. Using these general results, we derive asymptotic distributions of the WLE of a finite-dimensional parameter in a general semiparametric model where an estimator of a nuisance parameter is estimable either at regular or nonregular rates. We illustrate these results and methods in the Cox model with right censoring and interval censoring. We compare the methods via their asymptotic variances under both sampling without replacement and the more usual (and easier to analyze) assumption of Bernoulli sampling at the second phase. PMID:24563559

Where Occupation and Environment Overlap: US Forest Service Worker Exposure to Libby Amphibole Fibers

PubMed Central

Harper, Martin; Butler, Corey; Berry, David; Wroble, Julie

2015-01-01

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducted an evaluation of exposures to asbestiform amphibole, known as Libby Amphibole (LA), to personnel from the US Department of Agriculture-Forest Service (USFS) working in the Kootenai National Forest near a former vermiculite mine close to Libby, Montana. LA is associated with vermiculite that was obtained from this mine; mining and processing over many years have resulted in the spread of LA into the surrounding Kootenai Forest where it has been found in tree bark, soil, and forest floor litter. As a result of this and other contamination, Libby and surrounding areas have been designated a “Superfund” site by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This article describes the application of EPA methods for assessing cancer risks to NIOSH sampling results. Phase-contrast microscopy for airborne asbestos fiber evaluation was found to be less useful than transmission electron microscopy in the presence of interfering organic (plant) fibers. NIOSH Method 7402 was extended by examination of larger areas of the filter, but fiber counts remained low. There are differences between counting rules in NIOSH 7402 and the ISO method used by EPA but these are minor in the context of the uncertainty in concentration estimates from the low counts. Estimates for cancer risk are generally compatible with those previously estimated by the EPA. However, there are limitations to extrapolating these findings of low risk throughout the entire area and to tasks that were not evaluated. PMID:25715191

Where occupation and environment overlap: US Forest Service worker exposure to Libby Amphibole fibers.

PubMed

Harper, Martin; Butler, Corey; Berry, David; Wroble, Julie

2015-01-01

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducted an evaluation of exposures to asbestiform amphibole, known as Libby Amphibole (LA), to personnel from the US Department of Agriculture-Forest Service (USFS) working in the Kootenai National Forest near a former vermiculite mine close to Libby, Montana. LA is associated with vermiculite that was obtained from this mine; mining and processing over many years have resulted in the spread of LA into the surrounding Kootenai Forest where it has been found in tree bark, soil, and forest floor litter. As a result of this and other contamination, Libby and surrounding areas have been designated a "Superfund" site by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This article describes the application of EPA methods for assessing cancer risks to NIOSH sampling results. Phase-contrast microscopy for airborne asbestos fiber evaluation was found to be less useful than transmission electron microscopy in the presence of interfering organic (plant) fibers. NIOSH Method 7402 was extended by examination of larger areas of the filter, but fiber counts remained low. There are differences between counting rules in NIOSH 7402 and the ISO method used by EPA but these are minor in the context of the uncertainty in concentration estimates from the low counts. Estimates for cancer risk are generally compatible with those previously estimated by the EPA. However, there are limitations to extrapolating these findings of low risk throughout the entire area and to tasks that were not evaluated.

Multistage Estimation Of Frequency And Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Rajendra

1991-01-01

Conceptual two-stage software scheme serves as prototype of multistage scheme for digital estimation of phase, frequency, and rate of change of frequency ("Doppler rate") of possibly phase-modulated received sinusoidal signal in communication system in which transmitter and/or receiver traveling rapidly, accelerating, and/or jerking severely. Each additional stage of multistage scheme provides increasingly refined estimate of frequency and phase of signal. Conceived for use in estimating parameters of signals from spacecraft and high dynamic GPS signal parameters, also applicable, to terrestrial stationary/mobile (e.g., cellular radio) and land-mobile/satellite communication systems.

Effects of multidisciplinary teams and an integrated follow-up electronic system on clinical pharmacist interventions in a cancer hospital.

PubMed

Aziz, Muhammad Tahir; Rehman, Tofeeq Ur; Qureshi, Sadia; Andleeb, Sidrah

2017-12-01

Background The aim of drug therapy is to attain distinct therapeutic effects that not only improve patient's quality of life but also reduce the inherent risks associated with the therapeutic use of drugs. Pharmacists play a key role in reducing these risks by developing appropriate interventions. Whether to accept or reject the intervention made by the pharmacist is a relevant consultant's decision. Objective To evaluate the impact of electronic prompts and follow-up of rejected pharmacy interventions by clinical pharmacists in an in-patient setting. Setting Shaukat Khanum Cancer Hospital & Research Center, Lahore, Pakistan. Method The study was conducted in two phases. Data for 3 months were collected for each phase of the study. Systematic and quantifiable consensus validity was developed for rejected interventions in phase 1, based on patient outcome analyses. Severity rating was assigned to assess the significance of interventions. Electronic prompts for follow-on interventions in phase 2 were then developed and implemented, including daily review via a multidisciplinary team (MDT) approach. Main outcome measure Validity of rejected interventions, acceptance of follow-on interventions before and after re-engineering the pharmacy processes, rejection rate and severity rating of follow-on interventions. Result Of a total of 2649 and 3064 interventions that were implemented during phase 1 and phase 2, 238 (9%) and 307 (10%) were rejected, respectively. Additionally, 133 (56%) were inappropriate rejections during phase 1. The estimated reliability between pharmacists regarding rejected interventions was 0.74 (95% CI of 0.69, 0.79, p 0.000). Prospective data were analysed after implementing electronic alerts and an MDT approach. The acceptance rate of follow-on interventions in phase 2 was 60% (184). Conclusion Electronic prompts for follow-on interventions together with an MDT approach enhance the optimization of pharmacotherapy, increase drug rationality and improve patient care.

In vitro digestion and absorption of BDE-28, -47, -99 and -153 in indoor dust and its implication in risk assessment.

PubMed

Kang, Yuan; Pan, Weijian; Liang, Siyun; Zeng, Lixuan; Zhang, Qiuyun; Luo, Jiwen; Guo, Xinmei

2016-12-01

The bioaccessibility of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in indoor dust was estimated by a series of in vitro digestion methods. However, the absorption of PBDEs by intestinal cells after in vitro digestion was seldom studied. In the present study, the bioaccessibility of BDE-28, 47, 99 and 153 in indoor dust was firstly investigated by using the in vitro digestion method. Bioaccessibility in intestinal phase (BDE-28: 24.5-30.1%; BDE-47: 6.99-13.0; BDE-99: 1.61-14.2%; and BDE-153 5.97-24.4%.) was higher than that in gastric phase (BDE-28: 38.3-58.0; BDE-47: 9.62-30.9%; BDE-99: 9.71-24.3%; and BDE-153: 13.8-57.4%). The organic matter contents in indoor dust showed variable influence on the bioaccessibility of PBDEs. For the Caco-2 uptake assay, the BDE-28 showed greatest transport rate from medium to cell (K mc : 0.525h -1 ), followed by -47, -99 and -153. The K mc of PBDEs was significantly negative correlated with its corresponding K OW value. Similar pattern was found for the maximum uptake flux (J u, max ) and the transport rate from cell to medium (K cm ). The combination of bioacessibility and the absorption factor by Caco-2 cells could be used to estimate human intake of PBDEs via indoor dust would avoid overestimate the health risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A pesticide monitoring survey in rivers and lakes of northern Greece and its human and ecotoxicological risk assessment.

PubMed

Papadakis, Emmaluel N; Vryzas, Zisis; Kotopoulou, Athena; Kintzikoglou, Katerina; Makris, Konstantinos C; Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, Euphemia

2015-06-01

A pesticide monitoring study covering the main rivers and lakes of Northern Greece (Macedonia, Thrace and Thessaly) was undertaken. A total of 416 samples were collected over a 1.5-year sampling period (September 1999- February 2001) from six rivers and ten lakes. The water samples were analyzed with an off-line solid phase extraction technique coupled with a gas chromatography ion trap mass spectrometer using an analytical method for 147 pesticides and their metabolites, including organochlorines, organophosphates, triazines, chloroacetanilides, pyrethroids, carbamates, phthalimides and other pesticides (herbicides, insecticides and fungicides). Based on the pesticide survey results, a human health carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment was conducted for adults and children. Ecotoxicological risk assessment was also conducted using default endpoint values and the risk quotient method. Results showed that the herbicides metolachlor, prometryn, alachlor and molinate, were the most frequently detected pesticides (29%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 10%, respectively). They also exhibited the highest concentration values, often exceeding 1 μg/L. Chlorpyrifos ethyl was the most frequently detected insecticide (7%). Seasonal variations in measured pesticide concentrations were observed in all rivers and lakes. The highest concentrations were recorded during May-June period, right after pesticide application. Concentrations of six pesticides were above the maximum allowable limit of 0.1 μg/L set for drinking water. Alachlor, atrazine and a-HCH showed unacceptable carcinogenic risk estimates (4.5E-06, 4.6E-06 and 1.3E-04, respectively). Annual average concentrations of chlorpyriphos ethyl (0.031 μg L), dicofol (0.01 μg/L), dieldrin (0.02 μg/L) and endosulfan a (0.065 μg/L) exceeded the EU environmental quality standards. The risk quotient estimates for the insecticides chorpyrifos ethyl, diazinon and parathion methyl and herbicide prometryn were above acceptable risk values. The coupling of monitoring data to probabilistic human and ecotoxicological risk estimates could find use by Greek regulatory authorities, proposing effective pollution management schemes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost effective management of space venture risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giuntini, Ronald E.; Storm, Richard E.

1986-01-01

The development of a model for the cost-effective management of space venture risks is discussed. The risk assessment and control program of insurance companies is examined. A simplified system development cycle which consists of a conceptual design phase, a preliminary design phase, a final design phase, a construction phase, and a system operations and maintenance phase is described. The model incorporates insurance safety risk methods and reliability engineering, and testing practices used in the development of large aerospace and defense systems.

Lessons Learned for Planning and Estimating Operations Support Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newhouse, Marilyn

2011-01-01

Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead projects to focus on hardware development schedules and costs, de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations, and any LCC growth can directly impact the programs ability to fund new missions. The D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center recently studied cost overruns for 7 D&NF missions related to phase C/D development of operational capabilities and phase E mission operations. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential operations risks and controlling the associated impacts to operations development and execution costs. The study found that the drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This presentation summarizes the study and the results, providing a set of lessons NASA can use to improve early estimation and validation of operations costs.

Comparison of Time-to-First Event and Recurrent Event Methods in Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Claggett, Brian; Pocock, Stuart; Wei, L J; Pfeffer, Marc A; McMurray, John J V; Solomon, Scott D

2018-03-27

Background -Most Phase-3 trials feature time-to-first event endpoints for their primary and/or secondary analyses. In chronic diseases where a clinical event can occur more than once, recurrent-event methods have been proposed to more fully capture disease burden and have been assumed to improve statistical precision and power compared to conventional "time-to-first" methods. Methods -To better characterize factors that influence statistical properties of recurrent-events and time-to-first methods in the evaluation of randomized therapy, we repeatedly simulated trials with 1:1 randomization of 4000 patients to active vs control therapy, with true patient-level risk reduction of 20% (i.e. RR=0.80). For patients who discontinued active therapy after a first event, we assumed their risk reverted subsequently to their original placebo-level risk. Through simulation, we varied a) the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk and b) the extent of treatment discontinuation. Findings were compared with those from actual randomized clinical trials. Results -As the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk was increased, both time-to-first and recurrent-events methods lost statistical power to detect a true risk reduction and confidence intervals widened. The recurrent-events analyses continued to estimate the true RR=0.80 as heterogeneity increased, while the Cox model produced estimates that were attenuated. The power of recurrent-events methods declined as the rate of study drug discontinuation post-event increased. Recurrent-events methods provided greater power than time-to-first methods in scenarios where drug discontinuation was ≤30% following a first event, lesser power with drug discontinuation rates of ≥60%, and comparable power otherwise. We confirmed in several actual trials in chronic heart failure that treatment effect estimates were attenuated when estimated via the Cox model and that increased statistical power from recurrent-events methods was most pronounced in trials with lower treatment discontinuation rates. Conclusions -We find that the statistical power of both recurrent-events and time-to-first methods are reduced by increasing heterogeneity of patient risk, a parameter not included in conventional power and sample size formulas. Data from real clinical trials are consistent with simulation studies, confirming that the greatest statistical gains from use of recurrent-events methods occur in the presence of high patient heterogeneity and low rates of study drug discontinuation.

Defense Communications Agency Cost and Planning Factors Manual. Revised

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-03-01

the Time-Phased Fiscal Year Funding Schedule. Using estimated leadtimes required for each identifiable milestone, estimate the funding to be incurred...for each fiscal year, making sure to back off the time required for the conceptual phase, the procurement phase, and the training and operational...39-1 (To be published later) 40. FISCAL -YEAR TIME PHASING OF COST ESTIMATE ........... 40-1 (To be published later) 41. DISCOUNTING

Dental management in dysphagia syndrome patients with previously acquired brain damages

PubMed Central

Bramanti, Ennio; Arcuri, Claudio; Cecchetti, Francesco; Cervino, Gabriele; Nucera, Riccardo; Cicciù, Marco

2012-01-01

Dysphagia is defined as difficulty in swallowing food (semi-solid or solid), liquid, or both. Difficulty in swallowing affects approximately 7% of population, with risk incidence increasing with age. There are many disorder conditions predisposing to dysphagia such as mechanical strokes or esophageal diseases even if neurological diseases represent the principal one. Cerebrovascular pathology is today the leading cause of death in developing countries, and it occurs most frequently in individuals who are at least 60 years old. Swallowing disorders related to a stroke event are common occurrences. The incidence ranging is estimated from 18% to 81% in the acute phase and with a prevalence of 12% among such patients. Cerebral, cerebellar, or brain stem strokes can influence swallowing physiology while cerebral lesions can interrupt voluntary control of mastication and bolus transport during the oral phase. Among the most frequent complications of dysphagia are increased mortality and pulmonary risks such as aspiration pneumonia, dehydration, malnutrition, and long-term hospitalization. This review article discusses the epidemiology of dysphagia, the normal swallowing process, pathophysiology, signs and symptoms, diagnostics, and dental management of patients affected. PMID:23162574

Risk of DDT residue in maize consumed by infants as complementary diet in southwest Ethiopia.

PubMed

Mekonen, Seblework; Lachat, Carl; Ambelu, Argaw; Steurbaut, Walter; Kolsteren, Patrick; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Wondafrash, Mekitie; Houbraken, Michael; Spanoghe, Pieter

2015-04-01

Infants in Ethiopia are consuming food items such as maize as a complementary diet. However, this may expose infants to toxic contaminants like DDT. Maize samples were collected from the households visited during a consumption survey and from markets in Jimma zone, southwestern Ethiopia. The residues of total DDT and its metabolites were analyzed using the Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe (QuEChERS) method combined with dispersive solid phase extraction cleanup (d-SPE). Deterministic and probabilistic methods of analysis were applied to determine the consumer exposure of infants to total DDT. The results from the exposure assessment were compared with the health based guidance value in this case the provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI). All maize samples (n=127) were contaminated by DDT, with a mean concentration of 1.770 mg/kg, which was far above the maximum residue limit (MRL). The mean and 97.5 percentile (P 97.5) estimated daily intake of total DDT for consumers were respectively 0.011 and 0.309 mg/kg bw/day for deterministic and 0.011 and 0.083 mg/kg bw/day for probabilistic exposure assessment. For total infant population (consumers and non-consumers), the 97.5 percentile estimated daily intake were 0.265 and 0.032 mg/kg bw/day from the deterministic and probabilistic exposure assessments, respectively. Health risk estimation revealed that, the mean and 97.5 percentile for consumers, and 97.5 percentile estimated daily intake of total DDT for total population were above the PTDI. Therefore, in Ethiopia, the use of maize as complementary food for infants may pose a health risk due to DDT residue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence in different phases of hepatitis B virus infection: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Yi; Zhang, Sheng; Wang, Xulin; Wang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Jian; Qin, Gang; Li, Wenchao; Ding, Kun; Zhang, Lei; Liang, Feng

2017-10-01

Because whether hepatitis B virus infection increases the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus has been a controversial topic, pair-wise and network meta-analyses of published literature were carried out to accurately evaluate the association between different phases of hepatitis B virus infection and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. A comprehensive literature retrieval was conducted from the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Chinese Database to identify epidemiological studies on the association between hepatitis B virus infection and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus that were published from 1999 to 2015. A pair-wise meta-analysis of direct evidence was performed to estimate the pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. A network meta-analysis was conducted, including the construction of a network plot, inconsistency plot, predictive interval plot, comparison-adjusted funnel plot and rank diagram, to graphically link the direct and indirect comparisons between different hepatitis B virus infective phases. Eighteen publications (n=113 639) describing 32 studies were included in this meta-analysis. In the pair-wise meta-analysis, the pooled odds ratio for type 2 diabetes mellitus in chronic hepatitis B cirrhosis patients was 1.76 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.14) when compared with non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients. In the network meta-analysis, six comparisons of four hepatitis B virus infectious states indicated the following descending order for the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: hepatitis B cirrhosis patients, non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients, hepatitis B virus carriers and non-hepatitis B virus controls. This study suggests that hepatitis B virus infection is not an independent risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus, but the development of cirrhosis may increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus cirrhosis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Emerging organic contaminants in coastal waters: anthropogenic impact, environmental release and ecological risk.

PubMed

Jiang, Jheng-Jie; Lee, Chon-Lin; Fang, Meng-Der

2014-08-30

This study provides a first estimate of the sources, distribution, and risk presented by emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) in coastal waters off southwestern Taiwan. Ten illicit drugs, seven nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), five antibiotics, two blood lipid regulators, two antiepileptic drugs, two UV filters, caffeine, atenolol, and omeprazole were analyzed by solid-phase extraction and liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (SPE-LC-MS/MS). Thirteen EOCs were detected in coastal waters, including four NSAIDs (acetaminophen, ibuprofen, ketoprofen, and codeine), three antibiotics (ampicillin, erythromycin, and cefalexin), three illicit drugs (ketamine, pseudoephedrine, and MDMA), caffeine, carbamazepine, and gemfibrozil. The median concentrations for the 13 EOCs ranged from 1.47 ng/L to 156 ng/L. Spatial variation in concentration of the 13 EOCs suggests discharge into coastal waters via ocean outfall pipes and rivers. Codeine and ampicillin have significant pollution risk quotients (RQ>1), indicating potentially high risk to aquatic organisms in coastal waters. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing Cardiovascular Drug Safety and Efficacy in Randomized Trials

PubMed Central

FitzGerald, Garret A.

2014-01-01

Randomized trials provide the gold standard evidence on which rests the decision to approve novel therapeutics for clinical use. They are large and expensive and provide average, but unbiased estimates of efficacy and risk. Concern has been expressed about how “unrepresentative” populations and conditions that pertain in randomized trials might be of the “real world”, including concerns about the homogeneity of the biomedical and adherence characteristics of volunteers entered into such trials, the dose and constancy of drug administration and the mixture of additional medications that are restricted in such trials but might influence outcome in practice. A distinction has been drawn between trials which establish “efficacy” and those that demonstrate “effectiveness” - drugs that patients actually consume in the “real world” for clinical benefit1. However, randomized controlled trials remain the gold standard for establishing efficacy and the testing of “effectiveness” with less rigorous approaches is a secondary, albeit important consideration. Despite this, there is an appreciation that “average” results may conceal considerable inter-individual variation in drug response, leading to a failure to appreciate clinical value or risk in subsets of patients2,3Thus, attempts are now being made to individualize risk estimates by modulating those derived from large randomized trials with the individual baseline risk estimates based on demographic and biological criteria - the individual Numbers Needed to Treat to obtain a benefit, such as a life saved4. Here, I will consider some reasons why large phase 3 trials - by far the most expensive element of drug development - may fail to address the “unmet medical needs” which should justify such effort and investment. PMID:24677235

Baseline toxicity of a chlorobenzene mixture and total body residues measured and estimated with solid-phase microextraction.

PubMed

Leslie, Heather A; Hermens, Joop L M; Kraak, Michiel H S

2004-08-01

Body residues of compounds with a narcotic mode of action that exceed critical levels result in baseline toxicity in organisms. Previous studies have shown that internal concentrations in organisms also can be estimated by way of passive sampling. In this experiment, solid-phase microextraction (SPME) fibers were used as a tool to estimate the body residues, which were then compared to measured levels. Past application of SPME fibers in the assessment of toxicity risk of samples has focused on separate exposure of fibers and organisms, often necessitated by the amount of agitation needed in order to achieve steady state in the fibers within a convenient time period. Uptake kinetic studies have shown that in SPME fibers with thin coatings, equilibrium concentrations can be reached without agitation within the time frame of a toxicity test. In contrast to toxicity experiments to date, the SPME fibers in the current study were exposed concomitantly to the test water with the organisms, ensuring an exposure under the exact same conditions. Fibers and two aquatic invertebrate species were exposed to a mixture of four chlorobenzenes with a narcotic mode of action. The total body residue of these compounds in the organisms was determined, as was the acute toxicity resulting from the accumulation. The total body residues of both species were correlated to the total concentrations in SPME fibers. It was concluded that toxicity could be predicted based on total body residue (TBR) estimates from fiber concentrations.

Estimating production and consumption of solid reactive Fe phases in marine sediments from concentration profiles

EPA Science Inventory

1D diffusion models may be used to estimate rates of production and consumption of dissolved metabolites in marine sediments, but are applied less often to the solid phase. Here we used a numerical inverse method to estimate solid phase Fe(III) and Fe(II) consumption and product...

Characteristics associated with Sleep Duration, Chronotype, and Social jet lag in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Malone, Susan Kohl; Zemel, Babette S.; Compher, Charlene; Souders, Margaret; Chittams, Jesse; Thompson, Aleda Leis; Lipman, Terri H.

2015-01-01

Sleep is a complex behavior with numerous health implications. Identifying socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics of sleep are important for determining those at greatest risk for sleep-related health disparities. In this cross-sectional study, general linear models were used to examine socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics associated with sleep duration, chronotype, and social jet lag in adolescents. One hundred fifteen participants completed Phase I (self-reported sleep measures); 69 of these participants completed Phase II (actigraphy-estimated sleep measures). Black adolescents had shorter free night sleep than Hispanics. Youth with later chronotypes ate fewer fruits and vegetables, drank more soda, were less physically active, and took more daytime naps. Based on these findings, recommendations for individual support and school policies are provided. PMID:26376832

Statistical correlations and risk analyses techniques for a diving dual phase bubble model and data bank using massively parallel supercomputers.

PubMed

Wienke, B R; O'Leary, T R

2008-05-01

Linking model and data, we detail the LANL diving reduced gradient bubble model (RGBM), dynamical principles, and correlation with data in the LANL Data Bank. Table, profile, and meter risks are obtained from likelihood analysis and quoted for air, nitrox, helitrox no-decompression time limits, repetitive dive tables, and selected mixed gas and repetitive profiles. Application analyses include the EXPLORER decompression meter algorithm, NAUI tables, University of Wisconsin Seafood Diver tables, comparative NAUI, PADI, Oceanic NDLs and repetitive dives, comparative nitrogen and helium mixed gas risks, USS Perry deep rebreather (RB) exploration dive,world record open circuit (OC) dive, and Woodville Karst Plain Project (WKPP) extreme cave exploration profiles. The algorithm has seen extensive and utilitarian application in mixed gas diving, both in recreational and technical sectors, and forms the bases forreleased tables and decompression meters used by scientific, commercial, and research divers. The LANL Data Bank is described, and the methods used to deduce risk are detailed. Risk functions for dissolved gas and bubbles are summarized. Parameters that can be used to estimate profile risk are tallied. To fit data, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt routine is employed with L2 error norm. Appendices sketch the numerical methods, and list reports from field testing for (real) mixed gas diving. A Monte Carlo-like sampling scheme for fast numerical analysis of the data is also detailed, as a coupled variance reduction technique and additional check on the canonical approach to estimating diving risk. The method suggests alternatives to the canonical approach. This work represents a first time correlation effort linking a dynamical bubble model with deep stop data. Supercomputing resources are requisite to connect model and data in application.

Two phase sampling for wheat acreage estimation. [large area crop inventory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. W.; Hay, C. M.

1977-01-01

A two phase LANDSAT-based sample allocation and wheat proportion estimation method was developed. This technique employs manual, LANDSAT full frame-based wheat or cultivated land proportion estimates from a large number of segments comprising a first sample phase to optimally allocate a smaller phase two sample of computer or manually processed segments. Application to the Kansas Southwest CRD for 1974 produced a wheat acreage estimate for that CRD within 2.42 percent of the USDA SRS-based estimate using a lower CRD inventory budget than for a simulated reference LACIE system. Factor of 2 or greater cost or precision improvements relative to the reference system were obtained.

System technology analysis of aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicles: Moderate lift/drag (0.75-1.5). Volume 3: Cost estimates and work breakdown structure/dictionary, phase 1 and 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Technology payoffs of representative ground based (Phase 1) and space based (Phase 2) mid lift/drag ratio aeroassisted orbit transfer vehicles (AOTV) were assessed and prioritized. A narrative summary of the cost estimates and work breakdown structure/dictionary for both study phases is presented. Costs were estimated using the Grumman Space Programs Algorithm for Cost Estimating (SPACE) computer program and results are given for four AOTV configurations. The work breakdown structure follows the standard of the joint government/industry Space Systems Cost Analysis Group (SSCAG). A table is provided which shows cost estimates for each work breakdown structure element.

Estimates of general combining ability in Hevea breeding at the Rubber Research Institute of Malaysia : I. Phases II and III A.

PubMed

Tan, H

1977-01-01

Estimates of general combining ability of parents for yield and girth obtained separately from seedlings and their corresponding clonal families in Phases II and IIIA of the RRIM breeding programme are compared. A highly significant positive correlation (r = 0.71***) is found between GCA estimates from seedling and clonal families for yield in Phase IIIA, but not in Phase II (r = -0.03(NS)) nor for girth (r= -0.27(NS)) in Phase IIIA. The correlations for Phase II yield and Phase IIIA girth, however, improve when the GCA estimates based on small sample size or reversed rankings are excluded.When the best selections (based on present clonal and seedling information) are compared, all five of the parents top-ranking for yield are common in Phase IIIA but only two parents are common for yield and girth in Phases II and IIIA respectively. However, only one parent for yield in Phase II and two parents for girth in Phase IIIA would, if selected on clonal performance, have been omitted from the top ranking selections made by previous workers using seedling information.These findings, therefore, justify the choice of parents based on GCA estimates for yield obtained from seedling performance. Similar justification cannot be offered for girth, for which analysis is confounded by uninterpretable site and seasonal effects.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

PubMed

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2016-12-01

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Super-sensitive two-wavelength fringe projection profilometry with 2-sensitivities temporal unwrapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Servin, Manuel; Padilla, Moises; Garnica, Guillermo

2018-07-01

Since the early 1970s, optical two-wavelength phase-metrology (TWPM) has been used in a wide variety of experimental set ups. In TWPM one may compute the phase-sum and the phase-difference of two close phase measurements. Early TWPM optically computed the phase difference and phase sum by double exposure holography. However soon after, TWPM became almost synonymous to calculating the phase-difference only. The more sensitive phase-sum was largely forgotten. The standard application for phase-difference TWPM is to extend the phase measurement depth without phase-unwrapping for discontinuous phase-objects. This phase-difference, while non-wrapped, decreases however the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the estimated phase. On the other hand, the phase-sum increases the phase sensitivity, and the SNR of the estimated phase. In spite of these two great advantages, the use of the phase-sum in TWPM has been almost ignored. In this paper we review and set the stage for digital TWPM for super-sensitive phase-sum estimation. This is coupled with two-sensitivity phase-unwrapping to obtain extended-range super-sensitive fringe-projection profilometry estimations. Here we mathematically prove, and experimentally show that using the phase-sum one obtains a huge increase in SNR with respect to using the phase-difference alone. The pioneer works on double exposure TWPM holography that uses the phase-difference and phase-sum are also properly acknowledged. Finally, two experimental results from fringe-projection profilometry that clearly show the huge SNR gain of the phase-sum, with respect to the phase-difference is now mathematically well established.

Carrier-to-noise power estimation for the Block 5 Receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monk, A. M.

1991-01-01

Two possible algorithms for the carrier to noise power (P sub c/N sub 0) estimation in the Block V Receiver are analyzed and their performances compared. The expected value and the variance of each estimator algorithm are derived. The two algorithms examined are known as the I arm estimator, which relies on samples from only the in-phase arm of the digital phase lock loop, and the IQ arm estimator, which uses both in-phase and quadrature-phase arm signals. The IQ arm algorithm is currently implemented in the Advanced Receiver II (ARX II). Both estimators are biased. The performance degradation due to phase jitter in the carrier tracking loop is taken into account. Curves of the expected value and the signal to noise ratio of the P sub c/N sub 0 estimators vs. actual P sub c/N sub 0 are shown. From this, it is clear that the I arm estimator performs better than the IQ arm estimator when the data to noise power ratio (P sub d/N sub 0) is high, i.e., at high P sub c/N sub 0 values and a significant modulation index. When P sub d/N sub 0 is low, the two estimators have essentially the same performance.

Tau-independent Phase Analysis: A Novel Method for Accurately Determining Phase Shifts.

PubMed

Tackenberg, Michael C; Jones, Jeff R; Page, Terry L; Hughey, Jacob J

2018-06-01

Estimations of period and phase are essential in circadian biology. While many techniques exist for estimating period, comparatively few methods are available for estimating phase. Current approaches to analyzing phase often vary between studies and are sensitive to coincident changes in period and the stage of the circadian cycle at which the stimulus occurs. Here we propose a new technique, tau-independent phase analysis (TIPA), for quantifying phase shifts in multiple types of circadian time-course data. Through comprehensive simulations, we show that TIPA is both more accurate and more precise than the standard actogram approach. TIPA is computationally simple and therefore will enable accurate and reproducible quantification of phase shifts across multiple subfields of chronobiology.

Dynamic rockfall risk assessment along the SS113 coastal road (Northern Sicily)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrolembo, V. Brunella; Penna, Ivanna; Voumard, Jérémie; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2016-04-01

Rockfalls are natural hazards that usually affect only small areas. However, due to the big amount of material that can be moved and the associated kinetic energy they can cost serious damages to infrastructures and people. Even fairly small rockfall fragments are a significant hazard if deposited on a highway or along a rail-road track since they are not easily detected and can cause accidents or derailments. Rockfalls can also cause the closure of streets resulting in long term indirect economic losses due to transportation delays as well as to the impact on the commercial and tourist activities. In letterature there are numerous examples of rockfall risk assessments along transportation corridors, most of them are based on the use of standard risk estimation methods. The latters are static approaches founded on a macroscopic view of road traffic, assumed as uniform in space and time, thus characterized by average values of parameters. Lately, a new dynamic approach has been developed within the 'risk analysis group' at the University of Lausanne (Voumard, 2013). It consists of a kinematic interpretation of road traffic where vehicles are parametrized as single entities with different characteristics, speed, dimensions and behaviour. We apply this new approach to estimate the dynamic risk due to rockfall occurrence on the SS113 national road running along the northern coast of Sicily. In this work we focus our attention on a ≈10 km section along which the SS113 road and a railway connect all the costal villages going through very steep cliffs and very close to the sea with evident problems of erosion and maintenance. The area is a tourist destination and many hotels and facilities are found along the road. Moreover the area was already hit in the past by numerous rockfalls resulting in the closure of the road for periods running from a few days up to a few years with big direct and indirect damages to the local socio-economic activities. In order to achieve a rockfall risk assessment we apply a two steps approach. First, we realize an hazard estimation along the SS113 road applying a classical approach to evaluate the propagation area, so the probability of impact and storage of boulders on the road lanes. Then, we use this result as input to realize a dynamic estimation of risk for vehicles traveling on the road. Using the TSiNaHa numerical simulator we estimate the risk relative to different combinations of rockfall scenarios and traffic variables. The aim of the work is to get informations that could be used by local politicians and decision makers to take decisions both, about permanent mitigation measures and emergency actions to be taken during the alert phase or after the occurrence of a rockfall.

Indoor phthalate concentration in residential apartments in Chongqing, China: Implications for preschool children's exposure and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bu, Zhongming; Zhang, Yinping; Mmereki, Daniel; Yu, Wei; Li, Baizhan

2016-02-01

Six phthalates - dimethyl phthalate (DMP), diethyl phthalate (DEP), di(isobutyl) phthalate (DiBP), di(n-butyl) phthalate (DnBP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) - in indoor gas-phase and dust samples were measured in thirty residential apartments for the first time in Chongqing, China. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to estimate preschool children's exposure via inhalation, non-dietary ingestion and dermal absorption based on gas-phase and dust concentrations. Risk assessment was evaluated by comparing the modeled exposure doses with child-specific benchmarks specified in California's Proposition 65. The detection frequency for all the targeted phthalates was more than 80% except for BBzP. DMP was the most predominant compound in the gas-phase (median = 0.91 μg/m3 and 0.82 μg/m3 in living rooms and bedrooms, respectively), and DEHP was the most predominant compound in the dust samples (median = 1543 μg/g and 1450 μg/g in living rooms and bedrooms, respectively). Correlation analysis suggests that indoor DiBP and DnBP might come from the same emission sources. The simulations showed that the median DEHP daily intake was 3.18-4.28 μg/day/kg-bw in all age groups, suggesting that it was the greatest of the targeted phthalates. The risk assessment indicated that the exposure doses of DnBP and DEHP exceeded the child-specific benchmarks in more than 90% of preschool children in Chongqing. Therefore, from a children's health perspective, efforts should focus on controlling indoor phthalate concentrations and exposures.

Health issues associated with the smuggling and trafficking of migrants.

PubMed

Gushulak, B D; MacPherson, D W

2000-04-01

Approximately 4 million persons annually may be smuggled illegally across international borders. In 1997 it was estimated that 700,000 women or children were smuggled across international borders, of whom 175,000 were estimated to come from the former Soviet bloc; approximately 45,000-50,000 smuggled women and children arrived in the United States in that year. This article develops a framework to consider the impact of human trafficking on health within the context of migrant health and the destination population's health. Health risks are assumed by the individual being smuggled during the pre-journey, migratory, and arrival phases. In addition, the recipient country's population may also incur additional health burdens related to illegal arrivals from higher disease prevalence areas of the world. Some of this disease risk potential may be from transmissible agents, but there is increasing concern, and some evidence, that noncontagious diseases may be a significant problem associated with human trafficking. The global consideration of human smuggling and the individual and social impact on health are the focus of this paper.

Computational diagnosis of canine lymphoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirkes, E. M.; Alexandrakis, I.; Slater, K.; Tuli, R.; Gorban, A. N.

2014-03-01

One out of four dogs will develop cancer in their lifetime and 20% of those will be lymphoma cases. PetScreen developed a lymphoma blood test using serum samples collected from several veterinary practices. The samples were fractionated and analysed by mass spectrometry. Two protein peaks, with the highest diagnostic power, were selected and further identified as acute phase proteins, C-Reactive Protein and Haptoglobin. Data mining methods were then applied to the collected data for the development of an online computer-assisted veterinary diagnostic tool. The generated software can be used as a diagnostic, monitoring and screening tool. Initially, the diagnosis of lymphoma was formulated as a classification problem and then later refined as a lymphoma risk estimation. Three methods, decision trees, kNN and probability density evaluation, were used for classification and risk estimation and several preprocessing approaches were implemented to create the diagnostic system. For the differential diagnosis the best solution gave a sensitivity and specificity of 83.5% and 77%, respectively (using three input features, CRP, Haptoglobin and standard clinical symptom). For the screening task, the decision tree method provided the best result, with sensitivity and specificity of 81.4% and >99%, respectively (using the same input features). Furthermore, the development and application of new techniques for the generation of risk maps allowed their user-friendly visualization.

Estimating teat canal cross-sectional area to determine the effects of teat-end and mouthpiece chamber vacuum on teat congestion.

PubMed

Penry, J F; Upton, J; Mein, G A; Rasmussen, M D; Ohnstad, I; Thompson, P D; Reinemann, D J

2017-01-01

The primary objective of this experiment was to assess the effect of mouthpiece chamber vacuum on teat-end congestion. The secondary objective was to assess the interactive effects of mouthpiece chamber vacuum with teat-end vacuum and pulsation setting on teat-end congestion. The influence of system vacuum, pulsation settings, mouthpiece chamber vacuum, and teat-end vacuum on teat-end congestion were tested in a 2×2 factorial design. The low-risk conditions for teat-end congestion (TEL) were 40 kPa system vacuum (Vs) and 400-ms pulsation b-phase. The high-risk conditions for teat-end congestion (TEH) were 49 kPa Vs and 700-ms b-phase. The low-risk condition for teat-barrel congestion (TBL) was created by venting the liner mouthpiece chamber to atmosphere. In the high-risk condition for teat-barrel congestion (TBH) the mouthpiece chamber was connected to short milk tube vacuum. Eight cows (32 quarters) were used in the experiment conducted during 0400 h milkings. All cows received all treatments over the entire experimental period. Teatcups were removed after 150 s for all treatments to standardize the exposure period. Calculated teat canal cross-sectional area (CA) was used to assess congestion of teat tissue. The main effect of the teat-end treatment was a reduction in CA of 9.9% between TEL and TEH conditions, for both levels of teat-barrel congestion risk. The main effect of the teat-barrel treatment was remarkably similar, with a decrease of 9.7% in CA between TBL and TBH conditions for both levels of teat-end congestion risk. No interaction between treatments was detected, hence the main effects are additive. The most aggressive of the 4 treatment combinations (TEH plus TBH) had a CA estimate 20% smaller than for the most gentle treatment combination (TEL plus TBL). The conditions designed to impair circulation in the teat barrel also had a deleterious effect on circulation at the teat end. This experiment highlights the importance of elevated mouthpiece chamber vacuum on teat-end congestion and resultant decreases in CA. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parameter estimation of kinetic models from metabolic profiles: two-phase dynamic decoupling method.

PubMed

Jia, Gengjie; Stephanopoulos, Gregory N; Gunawan, Rudiyanto

2011-07-15

Time-series measurements of metabolite concentration have become increasingly more common, providing data for building kinetic models of metabolic networks using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In practice, however, such time-course data are usually incomplete and noisy, and the estimation of kinetic parameters from these data is challenging. Practical limitations due to data and computational aspects, such as solving stiff ODEs and finding global optimal solution to the estimation problem, give motivations to develop a new estimation procedure that can circumvent some of these constraints. In this work, an incremental and iterative parameter estimation method is proposed that combines and iterates between two estimation phases. One phase involves a decoupling method, in which a subset of model parameters that are associated with measured metabolites, are estimated using the minimization of slope errors. Another phase follows, in which the ODE model is solved one equation at a time and the remaining model parameters are obtained by minimizing concentration errors. The performance of this two-phase method was tested on a generic branched metabolic pathway and the glycolytic pathway of Lactococcus lactis. The results showed that the method is efficient in getting accurate parameter estimates, even when some information is missing.

A simulation study of Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziegler, L. (Principal Investigator); Potter, J.

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The LACIE performance predictor (LPP) was used to replicate LACIE phase 2 for a 15 year period, using accuracy assessment results for phase 2 error components. Results indicated that the (LPP) simulated the LACIE phase 2 procedures reasonably well. For the 15 year simulation, only 7 of the 15 production estimates were within 10 percent of the true production. The simulations indicated that the acreage estimator, based on CAMS phase 2 procedures, has a negative bias. This bias was too large to support the 90/90 criterion with the CV observed and simulated for the phase 2 production estimator. Results of this simulation study validate the theory that the acreage variance estimator in LACIE was conservative.

Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

PubMed

Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

2003-01-01

We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

Exposure assessment for trihalomethanes in municipal drinking water and risk reduction strategy.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat

2013-10-01

Lifetime exposure to disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in municipal water may pose risks to human health. Current approaches of exposure assessments use DBPs in cold water during showering, while warming of chlorinated water during showering may increase trihalomethane (THM) formation in the presence of free residual chlorine. Further, DBP exposure through dermal contact during showering is estimated using steady-state condition between the DBPs in shower water impacting on human skin and skin exposed to shower water. The lag times to achieve steady-state condition between DBPs in shower water and human skin can vary in the range of 9.8-391.2 min, while shower duration is often less than the lag times. Assessment of exposure without incorporating these factors might have misinterpreted DBP exposure in some previous studies. In this study, exposure to THMs through ingestion was estimated using cold water THMs, while THM exposure through inhalation and dermal contact during showering was estimated using THMs in warm water. Inhalation of THMs was estimated using THM partition into the shower air, while dermal uptake was estimated by incorporating lag times (e.g., unsteady and steady-state phases of exposure) during showering. Probabilistic approach was followed to incorporate uncertainty in the assessment. Inhalation and dermal contact during showering contributed 25-60% of total exposure. Exposure to THMs during showering can be controlled by varying shower stall volume, shower duration and air exchange rate following power law equations. The findings might be useful in understanding exposure to THMs, which can be extended to other volatile compounds in municipal water. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

PubMed

Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

2013-06-01

Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose from 59% to 72% (P = 0.158). In Thika Level 5 Hospital, audit and feedback has a poor impact on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage but positive impact on blood pressure control and prescription practices. Time and sample size may have affected observed results. Additional audits and alternative QI strategies are warranted. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Evidence-Based Healthcare © 2013 The Joanna Briggs Institute.

Metabolic Phase I (CYPs) and Phase II (GSTs) Gene Polymorphisms and Their Interaction with Environmental Factors in Nasopharyngeal Cancer from the Ethnic Population of Northeast India.

PubMed

Singh, Seram Anil; Ghosh, Sankar Kumar

2017-09-26

Multiple genetic and environmental factors and their interaction are believed to contribute in the pathogenesis of Nasopharyngeal Cancer (NPC). We investigate the role of Metabolic Phase I (CYPs) and Phase II (GSTs) gene polymorphisms, gene-gene and gene-environmental interaction in modulating the susceptibility to NPC in Northeast India. To determine the association of metabolic gene polymorphisms and environmental habits, 123 cases and 189 controls blood/swab samples were used for PCR and confirmed by Sanger sequencing. Analysis for GSTM1 and GSTT1 gene polymorphism was done by multiplex PCR. The T3801C in the 3'- flanking region of CYP1A1 gene was detected by PCR-RFLP method. The Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The GSTM1 null genotype alone (OR = 2.76) was significantly associated with NPC risk (P < 0.0001). The combinations of GSTM1 null and GSTT1 null genotypes also higher, 3.77 fold (P < 0.0001), risk of NPC, while GSTM1 null genotype along with CYP1A1 T3801C TC + CC genotype had 3.22 (P = 0.001) fold risk. The most remarkable risk was seen among individual carrying GSTM1 null, GSTT1 null genotypes and CYP1A1 T3801C TC + CC genotypes (OR = 5.71, P = 0.001). Further; analyses demonstrate an enhanced risk of NPC in smoked meat (OR = 5.56, P < 0.0001) and fermented fish consumers (OR = 5.73, P < 0.0001) carrying GSTM1 null genotype. An elevated risk of NPC was noted in smokers (OR = 12.67, P < 0.0001) and chewers (OR = 5.68, P < 0.0001) with GSTM1 null genotype. However, smokers had the highest risk of NPC among individuals carrying GSTT1 null genotype (OR = 4.46, P = 0.001) or CYP1A1 T3801C TC + CC genotype (OR = 7.13, P < 0.0001). The association of null genotypes and mutations of metabolic neutralizing genes along with the environmental habits (tobacco smokers and chewers, smoke meat, fermented fishes) can be used as a possible biomarker for early detection and preventive measure of NPC.

Estimating patient time costs associated with colorectal cancer care.

PubMed

Yabroff, K Robin; Warren, Joan L; Knopf, Kevin; Davis, William W; Brown, Martin L

2005-07-01

Nonmedical costs of care, such as patient time associated with travel to, waiting for, and seeking medical care, are rarely measured systematically with population-based data. The purpose of this study was to estimate patient time costs associated with colorectal cancer care. We identified categories of key medical services for colorectal cancer care and then estimated patient time associated with each service category using data from national surveys. To estimate average service frequencies for each service category, we used a nested case control design and SEER-Medicare data. Estimates were calculated by phase of care for cases and controls, using data from 1995 to 1998. Average service frequencies were then combined with estimates of patient time for each category of service, and the value of patient time assigned. Net patient time costs were calculated for each service category, summarized by phase of care, and compared with previously reported net direct costs of colorectal cancer care. Net patient time costs for the 3 phases of colorectal cancer care averaged dollar 4592 (95% confidence interval [CI] dollar 4427-4757) over the 12 months of the initial phase, dollar 2788 (95% CI dollar 2614-2963) over the 12 months of the terminal phase, and dollar 25 (95% CI: dollar 23-26) per month in the continuing phase of care. Hospitalizations accounted for more than two thirds of these estimates. Patient time costs were 19.3% of direct medical costs in the initial phase, 15.8% in the continuing phase, and 36.8% in the terminal phase of care. Patient time costs are an important component of the costs of colorectal cancer care. Application of this method to other tumor sites and inclusion of other components of the costs of medical care will be important in delineating the economic burden of cancer in the United States.

Study on each phase characteristics of the whole coal life cycle and their ecological risk assessment-a case of coal in China.

PubMed

Dai, Wenting; Dong, Jihong; Yan, Wanglin; Xu, Jiren

2017-01-01

The paper divided the whole coal life cycle, explained each phase characteristics, and took coal mine in China as a study case to assess the ecological risk in coal utilization phase. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the whole coal life cycle is divided into coal mining, processing, transportation, utilization, and waste disposal. (2) The key points of production organization and characteristics in the five phases have great differences. The coal mining phase is characterized by the damage of the key ecological factors (water, soil, atmosphere, vegetation, etc.) damaged while the coal processing phase by discharging waste. The characteristics in coal transportation phase mainly performance as escaping and migration of atmospheric pollutants. In coal utilization phase, the main characteristics are aggravation of greenhouse effect. The main characteristics of waste disposal phase are accumulation of negative ecological effects on the land. (3) The ecological risk of soil heavy metals is serious in coal utilization phase. The potential ecological hazard coefficients of Pb and As in coal, residue and ash are all lower than 40, presenting low environmental impact on soil; the potential ecological risk coefficients of Cd are higher than 60, nearly half of their potential ecological risk coefficients are higher than 160, which presents high environmental pollution impact on soil; Hg's potential ecological risk coefficients are higher than 320, presenting the highest environmental pollution impact on soil; the comprehensive pollution indexes in coal, residue, and ash are relatively high, which means the pollution hazard potential to soil environment is high. (4) The ecological risk of the atmospheric solid suspended matter is relatively strong in coal utilization phase. The ecological risk of Cd and As in primary flue gas is both lower than net flue gas. The geoaccumulation indexes of Cd and Hg in primary flue gas and net flue gas are both higher than 5, presenting the very strong ecological risk; 50 % of the geoaccumulation index values of As are between 3 and 4, which has also presenting a strong ecological risk while Pb does not present the ecological risk characterization.

Psychometric evaluation of a new instrument in Spanish to measure the wellness of university nursing faculty.

PubMed

Hurtado-Pardos, Barbara; Casas, Irma; Lluch-Canut, Teresa; Moreno-Arroyo, Carmen; Nebot-Bergua, Carlos; Roldán-Merino, Juan

2018-01-02

The aim of this study was to design and validate an instrument to measure the wellness among university nursing faculty. The study was performed in two phases. Phase I consisted of the development of the instrument with discussion groups and participant consensus. We designed an instrument including the 21 items or psychosocial risk factors identified and estimated an index by evaluating the frequency and intensity of each item. The items were grouped into 3 dimensions: teaching work demands, curricular demands, and organizational difficulties. Phase II, we evaluated the psychometric properties of the tool in a sample of 263 participants. Exploratory factor analysis showed a 3-factor structure that explained 53% of the total variance. The internal consistency of the instrument was 0.91 for the whole instrument. The results indicate that the tool developed is valid and reliable and may be a good instrument to monitor the wellness of university nursing faculty.

Estimates and predictors of health care costs of esophageal adenocarcinoma: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Thein, Hla-Hla; Jembere, Nathaniel; Thavorn, Kednapa; Chan, Kelvin K W; Coyte, Peter C; de Oliveira, Claire; Hur, Chin; Earle, Craig C

2018-06-27

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is increasing rapidly. Esophageal cancer has the second lowest 5-year survival rate of people diagnosed with cancer in Canada. Given the poor survival and the potential for further increases in incidence, phase-specific cost estimates constitute an important input for economic evaluation of prevention, screening, and treatment interventions. The study aims to estimate phase-specific net direct medical costs of care attributable to EAC, costs stratified by cancer stage and treatment, and predictors of total net costs of care for EAC. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative health data from 2003 to 2011. The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days (2016 CAD) were estimated from the payer perspective using phase of care approach and generalized estimating equations. Predictors of net cost by phase of care were based on a generalized estimating equations model with a logarithmic link and gamma distribution adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days were $1016 (95% CI, $955-$1078) in the initial phase, $669 (95% CI, $594-$743) in the continuing care phase, and $8678 (95% CI, $8217-$9139) in the terminal phase. Overall, stage IV at diagnosis and surgery plus radiotherapy for EAC incurred the highest cost, particularly in the terminal phase. Strong predictors of higher net costs were receipt of chemotherapy plus radiotherapy, surgery plus chemotherapy, radiotherapy alone, surgery alone, and chemotherapy alone in the initial and continuing care phases, stage III-IV disease and patients diagnosed with EAC later in a calendar year (2007-2011) in the initial and terminal phases, comorbidity in the continuing care phase, and older age at diagnosis (70-74 years), and geographic region in the terminal phase. Costs of care vary by phase of care, stage at diagnosis, and type of treatment for EAC. These cost estimates provide information to guide future resource allocation decisions, and clinical and policy interventions to reduce the burden of EAC.

Ecological risk assessment framework for low-altitude aircraft overflights: II. Estimating effects on wildlife.

PubMed

Efroymson, R A; Suter, G W

2001-04-01

An ecological risk assessment framework for aircraft overflights has been developed, with special emphasis on military applications. This article presents the analysis of effects and risk characterization phases; the problem formulation and exposure analysis phases are presented in a companion article. The framework addresses the effects of sound, visual stressors, and collision on the abundance and production of wildlife populations. Profiles of effects, including thresholds, are highlighted for two groups of endpoint species: ungulates (hoofed mammals) and pinnipeds (seals, sea lions, walruses). Several factors complicate the analysis of effects for aircraft overflights. Studies of the effects of aircraft overflights previously have not been associated with a quantitative assessment framework; therefore no consistent relations between exposure and population-level response have been developed. Information on behavioral effects of overflights by military aircraft (or component stressors) on most wildlife species is sparse. Moreover, models that relate behavioral changes to abundance or reproduction, and those that relate behavioral or hearing effects thresholds from one population to another are generally not available. The aggregation of sound frequencies, durations, and the view of the aircraft into the single exposure metric of slant distance is not always the best predictor of effects, but effects associated with more specific exposure metrics (e.g., narrow sound spectra) may not be easily determined or added. The weight of evidence and uncertainty analyses of the risk characterization for overflights are also discussed in this article.

Paediatric HUS Cases Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk Sold by Vending Machines in Italy: Quantitative Risk Assessment Based on Escherichia coli O157 Official Controls over 7 years.

PubMed

Giacometti, F; Bonilauri, P; Piva, S; Scavia, G; Amatiste, S; Bianchi, D M; Losio, M N; Bilei, S; Cascone, G; Comin, D; Daminelli, P; Decastelli, L; Merialdi, G; Mioni, R; Peli, A; Petruzzelli, A; Tonucci, F; Liuzzo, G; Serraino, A

2017-11-01

A quantitative risk assessment (RA) was developed to estimate haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) cases in paediatric population associated with the consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. The historical national evolution of raw milk consumption phenomenon since 2008, when consumer interest started to grow, and after 7 years of marketing adjustment, is outlined. Exposure assessment was based on the official Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC) microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2014, microbial growth during storage, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. In case of boiling milk before consumption, we assumed that the risk of HUS is fixed at zero. The model estimates clearly show that the public health significance of HUS cases due to raw milk STEC contamination depends on the current variability surrounding the risk profile of the food and the consumer behaviour has more impact than milk storage scenario. The estimated HUS cases predicted by our model are roughly in line with the effective STEC O157-associated HUS cases notified in Italy only when the proportion of consumers not boiling milk before consumption is assumed to be 1%. Raw milk consumption remains a source of E. coli O157:H7 for humans, but its overall relevance is likely to have subsided and significant caution should be exerted for temporal, geographical and consumers behaviour analysis. Health education programmes and regulatory actions are required to educate people, primarily children, on other STEC sources. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Current Trend Towards Using Soft Computing Approaches to Phase Synchronization in Communication Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, Jeffrey T.; Prasad, Nadipuram R.

1999-01-01

This paper surveys recent advances in communications that utilize soft computing approaches to phase synchronization. Soft computing, as opposed to hard computing, is a collection of complementary methodologies that act in producing the most desirable control, decision, or estimation strategies. Recently, the communications area has explored the use of the principal constituents of soft computing, namely, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms, for modeling, control, and most recently for the estimation of phase in phase-coherent communications. If the receiver in a digital communications system is phase-coherent, as is often the case, phase synchronization is required. Synchronization thus requires estimation and/or control at the receiver of an unknown or random phase offset.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Maximum a posteriori decoder for digital communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altes, Richard A. (Inventor)

1997-01-01

A system and method for decoding by identification of the most likely phase coded signal corresponding to received data. The present invention has particular application to communication with signals that experience spurious random phase perturbations. The generalized estimator-correlator uses a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator to generate phase estimates for correlation with incoming data samples and for correlation with mean phases indicative of unique hypothesized signals. The result is a MAP likelihood statistic for each hypothesized transmission, wherein the highest value statistic identifies the transmitted signal.

Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a givenmore » location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was determined to be less subjective, since it requires less subjectivity in the input values.« less

Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fabisinski, Leo L., III; Maples, Charlotte Dauphne

2010-01-01

Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.

Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

jones, Harry

2005-01-01

NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project management control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantor, Jeffrey P.

2012-09-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) program is jointly funded by the NSF, the DOE, and private institutions and donors. From an NSF funding standpoint, the LSST is a Major Research Equipment and Facilities (MREFC) project. The NSF funding process requires proposals and D&D reviews to include activity-based budgets and schedules; documented basis of estimates; risk-based contingency analysis; cost escalation and categorization. "Out-of-the box," the commercial tool Primavera P6 contains approximately 90% of the planning and estimating capability needed to satisfy R&D phase requirements, and it is customizable/configurable for remainder with relatively little effort. We describe the customization/configuration and use of Primavera for the LSST Project Management Control System (PMCS), assess our experience to date, and describe future directions. Examples in this paper are drawn from the LSST Data Management System (DMS), which is one of three main subsystems of the LSST and is funded by the NSF. By astronomy standards the LSST DMS is a large data management project, processing and archiving over 70 petabyes of image data, producing over 20 petabytes of catalogs annually, and generating 2 million transient alerts per night. Over the 6-year construction and commissioning phase, the DM project is estimated to require 600,000 hours of engineering effort. In total, the DMS cost is approximately 60% hardware/system software and 40% labor.

Modeled occupational exposures to gas-phase medical laser-generated air contaminants.

PubMed

Lippert, Julia F; Lacey, Steven E; Jones, Rachael M

2014-01-01

Exposure monitoring data indicate the potential for substantive exposure to laser-generated air contaminants (LGAC); however the diversity of medical lasers and their applications limit generalization from direct workplace monitoring. Emission rates of seven previously reported gas-phase constituents of medical laser-generated air contaminants (LGAC) were determined experimentally and used in a semi-empirical two-zone model to estimate a range of plausible occupational exposures to health care staff. Single-source emission rates were generated in an emission chamber as a one-compartment mass balance model at steady-state. Clinical facility parameters such as room size and ventilation rate were based on standard ventilation and environmental conditions required for a laser surgical facility in compliance with regulatory agencies. All input variables in the model including point source emission rates were varied over an appropriate distribution in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations in the near and far field zones of the room in a conservative approach inclusive of all contributing factors to inform future predictive models. The concentrations were assessed for risk and the highest values were shown to be at least three orders of magnitude lower than the relevant occupational exposure limits (OELs). Estimated values do not appear to present a significant exposure hazard within the conditions of our emission rate estimates.

Animal studies of life shortening and cancer risk from space radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, D. H.; Yochmowitz, M. G.; Hardy, K. A.; Salmon, Y. L.

The U. S. Air Force study of the delayed effects of single, total body exposures to simulated space radiation in rhesus monkeys is now in its 21st year. Observations on 301 irradiated and 57 age-matched control animals indicate that life expectancy loss from exposure to protons in the energy range encountered in the Van Allen belts and solar proton events can be expressed as a logarithmic function of the dose. The primary causes of life shortening are cancer and endometriosis (an abnormal proliferation of the lining of the uterus in females). Life shortening estimates permit comparison of the risk associated with space radiation exposures to be compared with that of other occupational and environmental hazards, thereby facilitating risk/benefit decisions in the planning and operational phases of manned space missions. Calculations of the relative risk of fatal cancers in the irradiated subjects reveal that the total body surface dose required to double the risk of death from cancer over a 20-year post exposure period varies with the linear energy transfer (LET) of the radiation. The ability to determine the integrated dose and LET spectrum in space radiation exposures of human is, therefore, critical to the assessment of life-time cancer risk.

Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

PubMed

Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

2010-11-01

An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

Reducing Subjectivity in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making (Presentation); NREL(National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akar, S.; Young, K.

Geothermal exploration projects have a significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment are 1) understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and 2) when to walk away from a site. Current methodologies for exploration decision-making are formulatedby subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location,more » including go/no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on alocation. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of aparticular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basicgeothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This secondapproach was determined to be less subjective, since numerical inputs come from the collected data. And it helps to facilitate communication between project managers and exploration geologists in making objective go/no-go decisions throughout the different project phases.« less

Effect of respiratory motion on internal radiation dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Tianwu; Zaidi, Habib, E-mail: habib.zaidi@hcuge.ch; Geneva Neuroscience Center, Geneva University, Geneva CH-1205

Purpose: Estimation of the radiation dose to internal organs is essential for the assessment of radiation risks and benefits to patients undergoing diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine procedures including PET. Respiratory motion induces notable internal organ displacement, which influences the absorbed dose for external exposure to radiation. However, to their knowledge, the effect of respiratory motion on internal radiation dosimetry has never been reported before. Methods: Thirteen computational models representing the adult male at different respiratory phases corresponding to the normal respiratory cycle were generated from the 4D dynamic XCAT phantom. Monte Carlo calculations were performed using the MCNP transportmore » code to estimate the specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) of monoenergetic photons/electrons, the S-values of common positron-emitting radionuclides (C-11, N-13, O-15, F-18, Cu-64, Ga-68, Rb-82, Y-86, and I-124), and the absorbed dose of {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose ({sup 18}F-FDG) in 28 target regions for both the static (average of dynamic frames) and dynamic phantoms. Results: The self-absorbed dose for most organs/tissues is only slightly influenced by respiratory motion. However, for the lung, the self-absorbed SAF is about 11.5% higher at the peak exhale phase than the peak inhale phase for photon energies above 50 keV. The cross-absorbed dose is obviously affected by respiratory motion for many combinations of source-target pairs. The cross-absorbed S-values for the heart contents irradiating the lung are about 7.5% higher in the peak exhale phase than the peak inhale phase for different positron-emitting radionuclides. For {sup 18}F-FDG, organ absorbed doses are less influenced by respiratory motion. Conclusions: Respiration-induced volume variations of the lungs and the repositioning of internal organs affect the self-absorbed dose of the lungs and cross-absorbed dose between organs in internal radiation dosimetry. The dynamic anatomical model provides more accurate internal radiation dosimetry estimates for the lungs and abdominal organs based on realistic modeling of respiratory motion. This work also contributes to a better understanding of model-induced uncertainties in internal radiation dosimetry.« less

A Consistent Definition of Phase Resetting Using Hilbert Transform.

PubMed

Oprisan, Sorinel A

2017-01-01

A phase resetting curve (PRC) measures the transient change in the phase of a neural oscillator subject to an external perturbation. The PRC encapsulates the dynamical response of a neural oscillator and, as a result, it is often used for predicting phase-locked modes in neural networks. While phase is a fundamental concept, it has multiple definitions that may lead to contradictory results. We used the Hilbert Transform (HT) to define the phase of the membrane potential oscillations and HT amplitude to estimate the PRC of a single neural oscillator. We found that HT's amplitude and its corresponding instantaneous frequency are very sensitive to membrane potential perturbations. We also found that the phase shift of HT amplitude between the pre- and poststimulus cycles gives an accurate estimate of the PRC. Moreover, HT phase does not suffer from the shortcomings of voltage threshold or isochrone methods and, as a result, gives accurate and reliable estimations of phase resetting.

Improved Goldstein Interferogram Filter Based on Local Fringe Frequency Estimation.

PubMed

Feng, Qingqing; Xu, Huaping; Wu, Zhefeng; You, Yanan; Liu, Wei; Ge, Shiqi

2016-11-23

The quality of an interferogram, which is limited by various phase noise, will greatly affect the further processes of InSAR, such as phase unwrapping. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) geophysical measurements', such as height or displacement, phase filtering is therefore an essential step. In this work, an improved Goldstein interferogram filter is proposed to suppress the phase noise while preserving the fringe edges. First, the proposed adaptive filter step, performed before frequency estimation, is employed to improve the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, to preserve the fringe characteristics, the estimated fringe frequency in each fixed filtering patch is removed from the original noisy phase. Then, the residual phase is smoothed based on the modified Goldstein filter with its parameter alpha dependent on both the coherence map and the residual phase frequency. Finally, the filtered residual phase and the removed fringe frequency are combined to generate the filtered interferogram, with the loss of signal minimized while reducing the noise level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results based on both simulated and real data.

Improved Goldstein Interferogram Filter Based on Local Fringe Frequency Estimation

PubMed Central

Feng, Qingqing; Xu, Huaping; Wu, Zhefeng; You, Yanan; Liu, Wei; Ge, Shiqi

2016-01-01

The quality of an interferogram, which is limited by various phase noise, will greatly affect the further processes of InSAR, such as phase unwrapping. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) geophysical measurements’, such as height or displacement, phase filtering is therefore an essential step. In this work, an improved Goldstein interferogram filter is proposed to suppress the phase noise while preserving the fringe edges. First, the proposed adaptive filter step, performed before frequency estimation, is employed to improve the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, to preserve the fringe characteristics, the estimated fringe frequency in each fixed filtering patch is removed from the original noisy phase. Then, the residual phase is smoothed based on the modified Goldstein filter with its parameter alpha dependent on both the coherence map and the residual phase frequency. Finally, the filtered residual phase and the removed fringe frequency are combined to generate the filtered interferogram, with the loss of signal minimized while reducing the noise level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results based on both simulated and real data. PMID:27886081

Investigation to realize a computationally efficient implementation of the high-order instantaneous-moments-based fringe analysis method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rajshekhar, Gannavarpu; Rastogi, Pramod

2010-06-01

Recently, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM)-operator-based method was proposed for accurate phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry. The method relies on piece-wise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients from the HIM operator using single-tone frequency estimation. The work presents a comparative analysis of the performance of different single-tone frequency estimation techniques, like Fourier transform followed by optimization, estimation of signal parameters by rotational invariance technique (ESPRIT), multiple signal classification (MUSIC), and iterative frequency estimation by interpolation on Fourier coefficients (IFEIF) in HIM-operator-based methods for phase estimation. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the potential of the IFEIF technique with respect to computational efficiency and estimation accuracy.

A Hybrid Method to Estimate Specific Differential Phase and Rainfall With Linear Programming and Physics Constraints

DOE PAGES

Huang, Hao; Zhang, Guifu; Zhao, Kun; ...

2016-10-20

A hybrid method of combining linear programming (LP) and physical constraints is developed to estimate specific differential phase (K DP) and to improve rain estimation. Moreover, the hybrid K DP estimator and the existing estimators of LP, least squares fitting, and a self-consistent relation of polarimetric radar variables are evaluated and compared using simulated data. Our simulation results indicate the new estimator's superiority, particularly in regions where backscattering phase (δ hv) dominates. Further, a quantitative comparison between auto-weather-station rain-gauge observations and K DP-based radar rain estimates for a Meiyu event also demonstrate the superiority of the hybrid K DP estimatormore » over existing methods.« less

Refining Ovarian Cancer Test accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS): protocol for a prospective longitudinal test accuracy study to validate new risk scores in women with symptoms of suspected ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Sundar, Sudha; Rick, Caroline; Dowling, Francis; Au, Pui; Rai, Nirmala; Champaneria, Rita; Stobart, Hilary; Neal, Richard; Davenport, Clare; Mallett, Susan; Sutton, Andrew; Kehoe, Sean; Timmerman, Dirk; Bourne, Tom; Van Calster, Ben; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Deeks, Jon

2016-01-01

Introduction Ovarian cancer (OC) is associated with non-specific symptoms such as bloating, making accurate diagnosis challenging: only 1 in 3 women with OC presents through primary care referral. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines recommends sequential testing with CA125 and routine ultrasound in primary care. However, these diagnostic tests have limited sensitivity or specificity. Improving accurate triage in women with vague symptoms is likely to improve mortality by streamlining referral and care pathways. The Refining Ovarian Cancer Test Accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS; HTA 13/13/01) project will derive and validate new tests/risk prediction models that estimate the probability of having OC in women with symptoms. This protocol refers to the prospective study only (phase III). Methods and analysis ROCkeTS comprises four parallel phases. The full ROCkeTS protocol can be found at http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/ROCKETS. Phase III is a prospective test accuracy study. The study will recruit 2450 patients from 15 UK sites. Recruited patients complete symptom and anxiety questionnaires, donate a serum sample and undergo ultrasound scored as per International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) criteria. Recruitment is at rapid access clinics, emergency departments and elective clinics. Models to be evaluated include those based on ultrasound derived by the IOTA group and novel models derived from analysis of existing data sets. Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, c-statistic (area under receiver operating curve), positive predictive value and negative predictive value of diagnostic tests are evaluated and a calibration plot for models will be presented. ROCkeTS has received ethical approval from the NHS West Midlands REC (14/WM/1241) and is registered on the controlled trials website (ISRCTN17160843) and the National Institute of Health Research Cancer and Reproductive Health portfolios. PMID:27507231

Phase Retrieval on Undersampled Data from the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolcar, Matthew R.; Mentzell, Eric

2011-01-01

Phase retrieval was applied to under-sampled data from a thermal infrared imaging system to estimate defocus across the field of view (FOV). We compare phase retrieval estimated values to those obtained using an independent technique.

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

PubMed

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

The feasibility of universal DLP-to-risk conversion coefficients for body CT protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Paulson, Erik K.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-03-01

The effective dose associated with computed tomography (CT) examinations is often estimated from dose-length product (DLP) using scanner-independent conversion coefficients. Such conversion coefficients are available for a small number of examinations, each covering an entire region of the body (e.g., head, neck, chest, abdomen and/or pelvis). Similar conversion coefficients, however, do not exist for examinations that cover a single organ or a sub-region of the body, as in the case of a multi-phase liver examination. In this study, we extended the DLP-to-effective dose conversion coefficient (k factor) to a wide range of body CT protocols and derived the corresponding DLP-to-cancer risk conversion coefficient (q factor). An extended cardiactorso (XCAT) computational model was used, which represented a reference adult male patient. A range of body CT protocols used in clinical practice were categorized based on anatomical regions examined into 10 protocol classes. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate the organ dose associated with each protocol class. Assuming the reference model to be 20 years old, effective dose and risk index (an index of the total risk for cancer incidence) were then calculated and normalized by DLP to obtain the k and q factors. The k and q factors varied across protocol classes; the coefficients of variation were 28% and 9%, respectively. The small variation exhibited by the q factor suggested the feasibility of universal q factors for a wide range of body CT protocols.

Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

PubMed

McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

2014-04-15

The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of cognitive impairment no dementia in a rural area of Northern China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ying; Shi, Zhihong; Liu, Mengyuan; Liu, Shuai; Yue, Wei; Liu, Shuling; Xiang, Lei; Lu, Hui; Liu, Ping; Wisniewski, Thomas; Wang, Jinhuan; Ji, Yong

2014-01-01

Few data are available on the prevalence of cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) in rural China. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of CIND in individuals aged 60 years and older in a large rural community, and to analyze the associated risk factors. A two-phase, door-to-door epidemiological study was used for residents aged 60 years and older in Ji County, a rural county near Tianjin in Northern China. In phase 1 of the study, the Mini-Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating were administered for screening purposes. In phase 2, the subjects who screened positive were further examined by neurologists. A total of 5,744 individuals underwent the home visit interview, where demographic variables and comorbidities were recorded; 5,550 individuals completed the two phases. CIND was diagnosed by the Aging, Demographics and Memory Study on CIND criteria. The odds ratio (OR) for each risk factor was calculated by logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of CIND among those aged 60 years and older was 23.3%. The prevalence of CIND was lower among those with a higher level of education or social involvement. CIND was more prevalent in females, older individuals, those with a past history of stroke, and those living without a partner. Significant risk factors were found by multivariate analyses: past history of stroke (OR = 1.889; 95% CI: 1.437-2.483); being female (OR = 1.546; 95% CI: 1.305-1.832); and having no partner (divorced, widowed or single; OR = 1.250; 95% CI: 1.042-1.499). In turn, level of education (OR = 0.560; 95% CI: 0.460-0.681) and engagement in social activities (OR = 0.339; 95% CI: 0.258-0.404) were protective factors. This is the first large-scale community-based epidemiological study assessing the prevalence of cognitive loss in the rural Chinese population. The total prevalence of CIND observed was 23.3%, which was higher than in other studies in Western and Asian countries. Living without a partner, female gender and previous stroke increased the risk of CIND, whereas a higher level of education and engagement in social activities reduced the risk of CIND. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment No Dementia in a Rural Area of Northern China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ying; Shi, Zhihong; Liu, Mengyuan; Liu, Shuai; Yue, Wei; Liu, Shuling; Xiang, Lei; Lu, Hui; Liu, Ping; Wisniewski, Thomas; Wang, Jinhuan; Ji, Yong

2014-01-01

Objective Few data are available on the prevalence of cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) in rural China. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of CIND in individuals aged 60 years and older in a large rural community, and to analyze the associated risk factors. Methods A two-phase, door-to-door epidemiological study was used for residents aged 60 years and older in Ji County, a rural county near Tianjin in Northern China. In phase 1 of the study, the Mini-Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating were administered for screening purposes. In phase 2, the subjects who screened positive were further examined by neurologists. A total of 5,744 individuals underwent the home visit interview, where demographic variables and comorbidities were recorded; 5,550 individuals completed the two phases. CIND was diagnosed by the Aging, Demographics and Memory Study on CIND criteria. The odds ratio (OR) for each risk factor was calculated by logistic regression analysis. Results The prevalence of CIND among those aged 60 years and older was 23.3%. The prevalence of CIND was lower among those with a higher level of education or social involvement. CIND was more prevalent in fe males, older individuals, those with a past history of stroke, and those living without a partner. Significant risk factors were found by multivariate analyses: past history of stroke (OR = 1.889; 95% CI: 1.437–2.483); being female (OR = 1.546; 95% CI: 1.305–1.832); and having no partner (divorced, widowed or single; OR = 1.250; 95% CI: 1.042–1.499). In turn, level of education (OR = 0.560; 95% CI: 0.460–0.681) and engagement in social activities (OR = 0.339; 95% CI: 0.258–0.404) were protective factors. Conclusions This is the first large-scale community-based epidemiological study assessing the prevalence of cognitive loss in the rural Chinese population. The total prevalence of CIND observed was 23.3%, which was higher than in other studies in Western and Asian countries. Living without a partner, female gender and previous stroke increased the risk of CIND, whereas a higher level of education and engagement in social activities reduced the risk of CIND. PMID:24751796

Use of (N-1)-D expansions for N-D phase unwrapping in MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bones, Philip J.; King, Laura J.; Millane, Rick P.

2017-09-01

In MRI the presence of metal implants causes severe artifacts in images and interferes with the usual techniques used to separate fat signals from other tissues. In the Dixon method, three images are acquired at different echo times to enable the variation in the magnetic field to be estimated. However, the estimate is represented as the phase of a complex quantity and therefore suffers from wrapping. High field gradients near the metal mean that the phase estimate is undersampled and therefore challenging to unwrap. We have developed POP, phase estimation by onion peeling, an algorithm which unwraps the phase along 1-D paths for a 2-D image obtained with the Dixon method. The unwrapping is initially performed along a closed path enclosing the implant and well separated from it. The recovered phase is expanded using a smooth periodic basis along the path. Then, path-by-path, the estimate is applied to the next path and then the expansion coefficients are estimated to best fit the wrapped measurements. We have successfully tested POP on MRI images of specially constructed phantoms and on a group of patients with hip implants. In principle, POP can be extended to 3-D imaging. In that case, POP would entail representing phase with a suitably smooth basis over a series of surfaces enclosing the implant (the "onion skins"), again beginning the phase estimation well away from the implant. An approach for this is proposed. Results are presented for fat and water separation for 2-D images of phantoms and actual patients. The practicality of the method and its employment in clinical MRI are discussed.

Statistical study of generalized nonlinear phase step estimation methods in phase-shifting interferometry.

PubMed

Langoju, Rajesh; Patil, Abhijit; Rastogi, Pramod

2007-11-20

Signal processing methods based on maximum-likelihood theory, discrete chirp Fourier transform, and spectral estimation methods have enabled accurate measurement of phase in phase-shifting interferometry in the presence of nonlinear response of the piezoelectric transducer to the applied voltage. We present the statistical study of these generalized nonlinear phase step estimation methods to identify the best method by deriving the Cramér-Rao bound. We also address important aspects of these methods for implementation in practical applications and compare the performance of the best-identified method with other bench marking algorithms in the presence of harmonics and noise.

Estimating Accurate Relative Spacecraft Angular Position from DSN VLBI Phases Using X-Band Telemetry or DOR Tones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bagri, Durgadas S.; Majid, Walid

2009-01-01

At present spacecraft angular position with Deep Space Network (DSN) is determined using group delay estimates from very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) phase measurements employing differential one way ranging (DOR) tones. As an alternative to this approach, we propose estimating position of a spacecraft to half a fringe cycle accuracy using time variations between measured and calculated phases as the Earth rotates using DSN VLBI baseline(s). Combining fringe location of the target with the phase allows high accuracy for spacecraft angular position estimate. This can be achieved using telemetry signals of at least 4-8 MSamples/sec data rate or DOR tones.

A tesselation-based model for intensity estimation and laser plasma interactions calculations in three dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colaïtis, A.; Chapman, T.; Strozzi, D.; Divol, L.; Michel, P.

2018-03-01

A three-dimensional laser propagation model for computation of laser-plasma interactions is presented. It is focused on indirect drive geometries in inertial confinement fusion and formulated for use at large temporal and spatial scales. A modified tesselation-based estimator and a relaxation scheme are used to estimate the intensity distribution in plasma from geometrical optics rays. Comparisons with reference solutions show that this approach is well-suited to reproduce realistic 3D intensity field distributions of beams smoothed by phase plates. It is shown that the method requires a reduced number of rays compared to traditional rigid-scale intensity estimation. Using this field estimator, we have implemented laser refraction, inverse-bremsstrahlung absorption, and steady-state crossed-beam energy transfer with a linear kinetic model in the numerical code Vampire. Probe beam amplification and laser spot shapes are compared with experimental results and pf3d paraxial simulations. These results are promising for the efficient and accurate computation of laser intensity distributions in holhraums, which is of importance for determining the capsule implosion shape and risks of laser-plasma instabilities such as hot electron generation and backscatter in multi-beam configurations.

Risks of a lifetime in construction. Part II: Chronic occupational diseases.

PubMed

Ringen, Knut; Dement, John; Welch, Laura; Dong, Xiuwen Sue; Bingham, Eula; Quinn, Patricia S

2014-11-01

We developed working-life estimates of risk for dust-related occupational lung disease, COPD, and hearing loss based on the experience of the Building Trades National Medical Screening Program in order to (1) demonstrate the value of estimates of lifetime risk, and (2) make lifetime risk estimates for common conditions among construction workers. Estimates of lifetime risk were performed based on 12,742 radiographic evaluations, 12,679 spirometry tests, and 11,793 audiograms. Over a 45-year working life, 16% of construction workers developed COPD, 11% developed parenchymal radiological abnormality, and 73.8% developed hearing loss. The risk for occupationally related disease over a lifetime in a construction trade was 2-6 times greater than the risk in non-construction workers. When compared with estimates from annualized cross-sectional data, lifetime risk estimates are highly useful for risk expression, and should help to inform stakeholders in the construction industry as well as policy-makers about magnitudes of risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimation of the sugar cane cultivated area from LANDSAT images using the two phase sampling method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Cappelletti, C. A.; Mendonca, F. J.; Lee, D. C. L.; Shimabukuro, Y. E.

1982-01-01

A two phase sampling method and the optimal sampling segment dimensions for the estimation of sugar cane cultivated area were developed. This technique employs visual interpretations of LANDSAT images and panchromatic aerial photographs considered as the ground truth. The estimates, as a mean value of 100 simulated samples, represent 99.3% of the true value with a CV of approximately 1%; the relative efficiency of the two phase design was 157% when compared with a one phase aerial photographs sample.

The Applicability of Incoherent Array Processing to IMS Seismic Array Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbons, S. J.

2012-04-01

The seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System for the CTBT differ greatly in size and geometry, with apertures ranging from below 1 km to over 60 km. Large and medium aperture arrays with large inter-site spacings complicate the detection and estimation of high frequency phases since signals are often incoherent between sensors. Many such phases, typically from events at regional distances, remain undetected since pipeline algorithms often consider only frequencies low enough to allow coherent array processing. High frequency phases that are detected are frequently attributed qualitatively incorrect backazimuth and slowness estimates and are consequently not associated with the correct event hypotheses. This can lead to missed events both due to a lack of contributing phase detections and by corruption of event hypotheses by spurious detections. Continuous spectral estimation can be used for phase detection and parameter estimation on the largest aperture arrays, with phase arrivals identified as local maxima on beams of transformed spectrograms. The estimation procedure in effect measures group velocity rather than phase velocity and the ability to estimate backazimuth and slowness requires that the spatial extent of the array is large enough to resolve time-delays between envelopes with a period of approximately 4 or 5 seconds. The NOA, AKASG, YKA, WRA, and KURK arrays have apertures in excess of 20 km and spectrogram beamforming on these stations provides high quality slowness estimates for regional phases without additional post-processing. Seven arrays with aperture between 10 and 20 km (MJAR, ESDC, ILAR, KSRS, CMAR, ASAR, and EKA) can provide robust parameter estimates subject to a smoothing of the resulting slowness grids, most effectively achieved by convolving the measured slowness grids with the array response function for a 4 or 5 second period signal. The MJAR array in Japan recorded high SNR Pn signals for both the 2006 and 2009 North Korea nuclear tests but, due to signal incoherence, failed to contribute to the automatic event detections. It is demonstrated that the smoothed incoherent slowness estimates for the MJAR Pn phases for both tests indicate unambiguously the correct type of phase and a backazimuth estimate within 5 degrees of the great-circle backazimuth. The detection part of the algorithm is applicable to all IMS arrays, and spectrogram-based processing may offer a reduction in the false alarm rate for high frequency signals. Significantly, the local maxima of the scalar functions derived from the transformed spectrogram beams provide good estimates of the signal onset time. High frequency energy is of greater significance for lower event magnitudes and in, for example, the cavity decoupling detection evasion scenario. There is a need to characterize propagation paths with low attenuation of high frequency energy and situations in which parameter estimation on array stations fails.

Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

PubMed

Sullivan, R E; Weng, P S

1987-08-01

Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

PubMed

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Distribution coefficient values describing iodine, neptunium, selenium, technetium, and uranium sorption to Hanford sediments. Supplement 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaplan, D.I.; Seme, R.J.

1995-03-01

Burial of vitrified low-level waste (LLW) in the vadose zone of the Hanford Site is being considered as a long-term disposal option. Regulations dealing with LLW disposal require that performance assessment (PA) analyses be conducted. Preliminary modeling efforts for the Hanford Site LLW PA were conducted to evaluate the potential health risk of a number of radionuclides, including Ac, Am, C, Ce, Cm, Co, Cs, Eu, 1, Nb, Ni, Np, Pa, Pb, Pu, Ra, Ru, Se, Sn, Sr, Tc, Th, U, and Zr (Piepho et al. 1994). The radionuclides, {sup 129}I, {sup 237}Np, {sup 79}Se, {sup 99}Tc, and {sup 234,235,238}U,more » were identified as posing the greatest potential health hazard. It was also determined that the outcome of these simulations were very sensitive to the parameter describing the extent to which radionuclides sorbed to the subsurface matrix, described as a distribution coefficient (K{sub d}). The distribution coefficient is a ratio of the radionuclide concentration associated with the solid phase to that in the liquid phase. The literature-derived K{sub d} values used in these simulations were conservative, i.e., lowest values within the range of reasonable values used to provide an estimate of the maximum health threat. Thus, these preliminary modeling results reflect a conservative estimate rather than a best estimate of what is likely to occur. The potential problem with providing only a conservative estimate is that it may mislead us into directing resources to resolve nonexisting problems.« less

Robust guaranteed-cost adaptive quantum phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Shibdas; Berry, Dominic W.; Petersen, Ian R.; Huntington, Elanor H.

2017-05-01

Quantum parameter estimation plays a key role in many fields like quantum computation, communication, and metrology. Optimal estimation allows one to achieve the most precise parameter estimates, but requires accurate knowledge of the model. Any inevitable uncertainty in the model parameters may heavily degrade the quality of the estimate. It is therefore desired to make the estimation process robust to such uncertainties. Robust estimation was previously studied for a varying phase, where the goal was to estimate the phase at some time in the past, using the measurement results from both before and after that time within a fixed time interval up to current time. Here, we consider a robust guaranteed-cost filter yielding robust estimates of a varying phase in real time, where the current phase is estimated using only past measurements. Our filter minimizes the largest (worst-case) variance in the allowable range of the uncertain model parameter(s) and this determines its guaranteed cost. It outperforms in the worst case the optimal Kalman filter designed for the model with no uncertainty, which corresponds to the center of the possible range of the uncertain parameter(s). Moreover, unlike the Kalman filter, our filter in the worst case always performs better than the best achievable variance for heterodyne measurements, which we consider as the tolerable threshold for our system. Furthermore, we consider effective quantum efficiency and effective noise power, and show that our filter provides the best results by these measures in the worst case.

On estimating the phase of periodic waveform in additive Gaussian noise, part 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauch, L. L.

1984-11-01

Motivated by advances in signal processing technology that support more complex algorithms, a new look is taken at the problem of estimating the phase and other parameters of a periodic waveform in additive Gaussian noise. The general problem was introduced and the maximum a posteriori probability criterion with signal space interpretation was used to obtain the structures of optimum and some suboptimum phase estimators for known constant frequency and unknown constant phase with an a priori distribution. Optimal algorithms are obtained for some cases where the frequency is a parameterized function of time with the unknown parameters and phase having a joint a priori distribution. In the last section, the intrinsic and extrinsic geometry of hypersurfaces is introduced to provide insight to the estimation problem for the small noise and large noise cases.

On Estimating the Phase of Periodic Waveform in Additive Gaussian Noise, Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rauch, L. L.

1984-01-01

Motivated by advances in signal processing technology that support more complex algorithms, a new look is taken at the problem of estimating the phase and other parameters of a periodic waveform in additive Gaussian noise. The general problem was introduced and the maximum a posteriori probability criterion with signal space interpretation was used to obtain the structures of optimum and some suboptimum phase estimators for known constant frequency and unknown constant phase with an a priori distribution. Optimal algorithms are obtained for some cases where the frequency is a parameterized function of time with the unknown parameters and phase having a joint a priori distribution. In the last section, the intrinsic and extrinsic geometry of hypersurfaces is introduced to provide insight to the estimation problem for the small noise and large noise cases.

An Estimation of the Whole-of-Life Noise Exposure of Adolescent and Young Adult Australians with Hearing Impairment.

PubMed

Carter, Lyndal; Black, Deborah; Bundy, Anita; Williams, Warwick

2016-10-01

Since amplified music gained widespread popularity, there has been community concern that leisure-noise exposure may cause hearing loss in adolescents and young adults who would otherwise be free from hearing impairment. Repeated exposure to personal stereo players and music events (e.g., nightclubbing, rock concerts, and music festivals) are of particular concern. The same attention has not been paid to leisure-noise exposure risks for young people with hearing impairment (either present from birth or acquired before adulthood). This article reports on the analysis of a subset of data (leisure participation measures) collected during a large, two-phase study of the hearing health, attitudes, and behaviors of 11- to 35-yr-old Australians conducted by the National Acoustic Laboratories (n = 1,667 hearing threshold level datasets analyzed). The overall aim of the two-phase study was to determine whether a relationship between leisure-noise exposure and hearing loss exists. In the current study, the leisure activity profiles and accumulated ("whole-of-life") noise exposures of young people with (1) hearing impairment and (2) with normal hearing were compared. Cross-sectional cohort study. Hearing impaired (HI) group, n = 125; normal (nonimpaired) hearing (NH) group, n = 296, analyzed in two age-based subsets: adolescents (13- to 17-yr-olds) and young adults (18- to 24-yr-olds). Participant survey. The χ² test was used to identify systematic differences between the leisure profiles and exposure estimates of the HI and NH groups. Whole-of-life noise exposure was estimated by adapting techniques described in ISO 1999. For adolescents, leisure profiles were similar for the two groups and few individuals exceeded the stated risk criterion. For young adults, participation was significantly lower for the HI group for 7 out of 18 leisure activities surveyed. Activity diversity and whole-of-life exposure were also significantly lower for the HI group young adults. A substantial number of individuals in both groups reported participation in leisure activities known to involve high noise levels (HI < NH). The individual whole-of-life exposures for the HI and NH participants were estimated and group median exposures were calculated. The median exposure for HI group young adults was significantly lower than that for the NH group (710 versus 1,615 Pa² h [Pascal squared hours]). The number of young adults with estimated exposure above the chosen noise-risk criterion in the NH group is concerning. With respect to the goals of hearing loss prevention initiatives, the more conservative social behavior (e.g., less nightclubbing) observed among HI group young adults may be regarded as a positive finding, but it could also signify relative social disadvantage for some young adults with hearing impairment. American Academy of Audiology

Self-calibration method without joint iteration for distributed small satellite SAR systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Qing; Liao, Guisheng; Liu, Aifei; Zhang, Juan

2013-12-01

The performance of distributed small satellite synthetic aperture radar systems degrades significantly due to the unavoidable array errors, including gain, phase, and position errors, in real operating scenarios. In the conventional method proposed in (IEEE T Aero. Elec. Sys. 42:436-451, 2006), the spectrum components within one Doppler bin are considered as calibration sources. However, it is found in this article that the gain error estimation and the position error estimation in the conventional method can interact with each other. The conventional method may converge to suboptimal solutions in large position errors since it requires the joint iteration between gain-phase error estimation and position error estimation. In addition, it is also found that phase errors can be estimated well regardless of position errors when the zero Doppler bin is chosen. In this article, we propose a method obtained by modifying the conventional one, based on these two observations. In this modified method, gain errors are firstly estimated and compensated, which eliminates the interaction between gain error estimation and position error estimation. Then, by using the zero Doppler bin data, the phase error estimation can be performed well independent of position errors. Finally, position errors are estimated based on the Taylor-series expansion. Meanwhile, the joint iteration between gain-phase error estimation and position error estimation is not required. Therefore, the problem of suboptimal convergence, which occurs in the conventional method, can be avoided with low computational method. The modified method has merits of faster convergence and lower estimation error compared to the conventional one. Theoretical analysis and computer simulation results verified the effectiveness of the modified method.

Combined-modality therapy for primary central nervous system lymphoma: Long-term data from a Phase II multicenter study (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Brien, Peter C.; Roos, Daniel E.; Pratt, Gary

2006-02-01

Purpose: To assess, in a multicenter setting, the long-term outcomes of a brief course of high-dose methotrexate followed by radiotherapy for patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL). Methods and Materials: Forty-six patients were entered in a Phase II protocol consisting of methotrexate (1 g/m{sup 2} on Days 1 and 8), followed by whole-brain irradiation (45-50.4 Gy). The median follow-up time was 7 years, with a minimum follow-up of 5 years. Results: The 5-year survival estimate was 37% ({+-}14%, 95% confidence interval [CI]), with progression-free survival being 36% ({+-}15%, 95% CI), and median survival 36 months. Of the originalmore » 46 patients, 10 were alive, all without evidence of disease recurrence. A total of 11 patients have developed neurotoxicity, with the actuarial risk being 30% ({+-}18%, 95% CI) at 5 years but continuing to increase. For patients aged >60 years the risk of neurotoxicity at 7 years was 58% ({+-}30%, 95% CI). Conclusion: Combined-modality therapy, based on high-dose methotrexate, results in improved survival outcomes in PCNSL. The risk of neurotoxicity for patients aged >60 years is unacceptable with this regimen, although survival outcomes for patients aged >60 years were higher than in many other series.« less

PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

2015-06-01

PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

ESTIMATION OF SHEAR STRESS WORKING ON SUBMERGED HOLLOW FIBRE MEMBRANE BY CFD METHOD IN MBRs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaw, Hlwan Moe; Li, Tairi; Nagaoka, Hiroshi

This study was conducted to evaluate shear stress working on submerged hollow fibre membrane by CFD (Computation Fluid Dynamics) method in MBRs. Shear stress on hollow fibre membrane caused by aeration was measured directly using a two-direction load sensor. The measurement of water-phase flow velocity was done also by using laser doppler velocimeter. It was confirmed that the shear stress was possible to be evaluated from the water-phase flow velocityby the result of comparison of time average shear stress actually measured with one hollow fibre membrane and the one calculated by the water-phase flow velocity. In the estimation of the water-phase flow velocity using the CFD method, time average water-phase flow velocity estimated by consideration of the fluid resistance of the membrane module nearly coincided with the measured values, and it was shown that it was possible to be estimated also within the membrane module. Moreover, the measured shear stress and drag force well coincided with the values calculated from the estimated water-phase flow velocity outside of membrane module and in the center of membrane module, and it was suggested that the shear stress on the hollow fibre membrane could be estimated by the CFD method in MBRs.

Screening Mammography: Patient Perceptions and Preferences Regarding Communication of Estimated Breast Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Amornsiripanitch, Nita; Mangano, Mark; Niell, Bethany L

2017-05-01

Many models exist to estimate a woman's risk of development of breast cancer. At screening mammography, many imaging centers collect data required for these models to identify women who may benefit from supplemental screening and referral for cancer risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to discern perceptions and preferences of screening mammography patients regarding communication of estimated breast cancer risk. An anonymous survey was distributed to screening and surveillance mammography patients between April and June 2015. Survey questions were designed to assess patient preferences regarding the receipt and complexity of risk estimate communication, including hypothetical scenarios with and without > 20% estimated risk of breast cancer. The McNemar test and the Wilcoxon signed rank test were used with p ≤ 0.05 considered statistically significant. The survey was distributed to 1061 screening and surveillance mammography patients, and 503 patients responded (response rate, 47%). Although 86% (431/503) of patients expressed interest in learning their estimated risk, only 8% (38/503) had undergone formal risk assessment. The preferred method (241 respondents [26%]) of communication of risk < 20% was a mailed letter accompanying annual mammogram results. For risk > 20%, patients preferred oral communication and were 10-fold as likely to choose only oral communication (p < 0.000001). For risk < 20% and > 20%, patients preferred to learn their estimated risk in great detail (69% and 85%), although women were significantly more likely to choose greater detail for risk > 20% (p < 0.00001). Screening mammography patients expressed interest in learning their estimated risk of breast cancer regardless of their level of hypothetical risk.

An estimator-predictor approach to PLL loop filter design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Statman, Joseph I.; Hurd, William J.

1990-01-01

The design of digital phase locked loops (DPLL) using estimation theory concepts in the selection of a loop filter is presented. The key concept, that the DPLL closed-loop transfer function is decomposed into an estimator and a predictor, is discussed. The estimator provides recursive estimates of phase, frequency, and higher-order derivatives, and the predictor compensates for the transport lag inherent in the loop.

Imaging Radiation Doses and Associated Risks and Benefits in Subjects Participating in Breast Cancer Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Spera, Gonzalo; Meyer, Carlos; Cabral, Pablo; Mackey, John R.

2015-01-01

Background. Medical imaging is commonly required in breast cancer (BC) clinical trials to assess the efficacy and/or safety of study interventions. Despite the lack of definitive epidemiological data linking imaging radiation with cancer development in adults, concerns exist about the risks of imaging radiation-induced malignancies (IRIMs) in subjects exposed to repetitive imaging. We estimated the imaging radiation dose and IRIM risk in subjects participating in BC trials. Materials and Methods. The imaging protocol requirements in 10 phase III trials in the adjuvant and advanced settings were assessed to estimate the effective radiation dose received by a typical and fully compliant subject in each trial. For each study, the excess lifetime attributable cancer risk (LAR) was calculated using the National Cancer Institute’s Radiation Risk Assessment Tool, version 3.7.1. Dose and risk calculations were performed for both imaging intensive and nonintensive approaches to reflect the variability in imaging performed within the studies. Results. The total effective imaging radiation dose was 0.4–262.2 mSv in adjuvant trials and 26–241.3 mSv in metastatic studies. The dose variability resulted from differing protocol requirements and imaging intensity approaches, with computed tomography, multigated acquisition scans, and bone scans as the major contributors. The mean LAR was 1.87–2,410/100,000 in adjuvant trials (IRIM: 0.0002%–2.41% of randomized subjects) and 6.9–67.3/100,000 in metastatic studies (IRIM: 0.007%–0.067% of subjects). Conclusion. IRIMs are infrequent events. In adjuvant trials, aligning the protocol requirements with the clinical guidelines’ surveillance recommendations and substituting radiating procedures with equivalent nonradiating ones would reduce IRIM risk. No significant risk has been observed in metastatic trials, and potential concerns on IRIMs are not justified. Implications for Practice: Medical imaging is key in breast cancer (BC) clinical trials. Most of these procedures expose patients to ionizing radiation, and the risk of second cancer development after imaging has prompted recent concerns and controversy. Using accepted calculation models, the number of malignancies were estimated that were potentially attributable to the imaging procedures performed during a patient’s participation in BC clinical trials. The results show that for patients participating in metastatic trials, the risk of imaging radiation-induced malignancies is negligible. In adjuvant trials, some second cancers due to imaging could be expected, and measures can be taken to reduce their risk. PMID:26025934

Signal processing of white-light interferometric low-finesse fiber-optic Fabry-Perot sensors.

PubMed

Ma, Cheng; Wang, Anbo

2013-01-10

Signal processing for low-finesse fiber-optic Fabry-Perot sensors based on white-light interferometry is investigated. The problem is demonstrated as analogous to the parameter estimation of a noisy, real, discrete harmonic of finite length. The Cramer-Rao bounds for the estimators are given, and three algorithms are evaluated and proven to approach the bounds. A long-standing problem with these types of sensors is the unpredictable jumps in the phase estimation. Emphasis is made on the property and mechanism of the "total phase" estimator in reducing the estimation error, and a varying phase term in the total phase is identified to be responsible for the unwanted demodulation jumps. The theories are verified by simulation and experiment. A solution to reducing the probability of jump is demonstrated. © 2013 Optical Society of America

Modeling the exposure functions of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon mixtures in occupational environments.

PubMed

Petit, Pascal; Maître, Anne; Persoons, Renaud; Bicout, Dominique J

2017-04-15

The health risk assessment associated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) mixtures faces three main issues: the lack of knowledge regarding occupational exposure mixtures, the accurate chemical characterization and the estimation of cancer risks. To describe industries in which PAH exposures are encountered and construct working context-exposure function matrices, to enable the estimation of both the PAH expected exposure level and chemical characteristic profile of workers based on their occupational sector and activity. Overall, 1729 PAH samplings from the Exporisq-HAP database (E-HAP) were used. An approach was developed to (i) organize E-HAP in terms of the most detailed unit of description of a job and (ii) structure and subdivide the organized E-HAP into groups of detailed industry units, with each group described by the distribution of concentrations of gaseous and particulate PAHs, which would result in working context-exposure function matrices. PAH exposures were described using two scales: phase (total particulate and gaseous PAH distribution concentrations) and congener (16 congener PAH distribution concentrations). Nine industrial sectors were organized according to the exposure durations, short-term, mid-term and long-term into 5, 36 and 47 detailed industry units, which were structured, respectively, into 2, 4, and 7 groups for the phase scale and 2, 3, and 6 groups for the congener scale, corresponding to as much distinct distribution of concentrations of several PAHs. For the congener scale, which included groups that used products derived from coal, the correlations between the PAHs were strong; for groups that used products derived from petroleum, all PAHs in the mixtures were poorly correlated with each other. The current findings provide insights into both the PAH emissions generated by various industrial processes and their associated occupational exposures and may be further used to develop risk assessment analyses of cancers associated with PAH mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

Case management reduces global vascular risk after stroke: secondary results from the The preventing recurrent vascular events and neurological worsening through intensive organized case-management randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

McAlister, Finlay A; Grover, Steven; Padwal, Raj S; Youngson, Erik; Fradette, Miriam; Thompson, Ann; Buck, Brian; Dean, Naeem; Tsuyuki, Ross T; Shuaib, Ashfaq; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-12-01

Survivors of ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at high risk for other vascular events. We evaluated the impact of 2 types of case management (hard touch with pharmacist or soft touch with nurse) added to usual care on global vascular risk. This is a prespecified secondary analysis of a 6-month trial conducted in outpatients with recent stroke/TIA who received usual care and were randomized to additional monthly visits with either nurse case managers (who counseled patients, monitored risk factors, and communicated results to primary care physicians) or pharmacist case managers (who were also able to independently prescribe according to treatment algorithms). The Framingham Risk Score [FRS]) and the Cardiovascular Disease Life Expectancy Model (CDLEM) were used to estimate 10-year risk of any vascular event at baseline, 6 months (trial conclusion), and 12 months (6 months after last trial visit). Mean age of the 275 evaluable patients was 67.6 years. Both study arms were well balanced at baseline and exhibited reductions in absolute global vascular risk estimates at 6 months: median 4.8% (Interquartile range (IQR) 0.3%-11.3%) for the pharmacist arm versus 5.1% (IQR 1.9%-12.5%) for the nurse arm on the FRS (P = .44 between arms) and median 10.0% (0.1%-31.6%) versus 12.5% (2.1%-30.5%) on the CDLEM (P = .37). These reductions persisted at 12 months: median 6.4% (1.2%-11.6%) versus 5.5% (2.0%-12.0%) for the FRS (P = .83) and median 8.4% (0.1%-28.3%) versus 13.1% (1.6%-31.6%) on the CDLEM (P = .20). Case management by nonphysician providers is associated with improved global vascular risk in patients with recent stroke/TIA. Reductions achieved during the active phase of the trial persisted after trial conclusion. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumers' behavior in quantitative microbial risk assessment for pathogens in raw milk: Incorporation of the likelihood of consumption as a function of storage time and temperature.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Paterlini, Franco; Rizzi, Rita; Guitian, Javier

2016-02-01

Foodborne disease as a result of raw milk consumption is an increasing concern in Western countries. Quantitative microbial risk assessment models have been used to estimate the risk of illness due to different pathogens in raw milk. In these models, the duration and temperature of storage before consumption have a critical influence in the final outcome of the simulations and are usually described and modeled as independent distributions in the consumer phase module. We hypothesize that this assumption can result in the computation, during simulations, of extreme scenarios that ultimately lead to an overestimation of the risk. In this study, a sensorial analysis was conducted to replicate consumers' behavior. The results of the analysis were used to establish, by means of a logistic model, the relationship between time-temperature combinations and the probability that a serving of raw milk is actually consumed. To assess our hypothesis, 2 recently published quantitative microbial risk assessment models quantifying the risks of listeriosis and salmonellosis related to the consumption of raw milk were implemented. First, the default settings described in the publications were kept; second, the likelihood of consumption as a function of the length and temperature of storage was included. When results were compared, the density of computed extreme scenarios decreased significantly in the modified model; consequently, the probability of illness and the expected number of cases per year also decreased. Reductions of 11.6 and 12.7% in the proportion of computed scenarios in which a contaminated milk serving was consumed were observed for the first and the second study, respectively. Our results confirm that overlooking the time-temperature dependency may yield to an important overestimation of the risk. Furthermore, we provide estimates of this dependency that could easily be implemented in future quantitative microbial risk assessment models of raw milk pathogens. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Robust and Multi-Weighted Approach to Estimating Topographically Correlated Tropospheric Delays in Radar Interferograms

PubMed Central

Zhu, Bangyan; Li, Jiancheng; Chu, Zhengwei; Tang, Wei; Wang, Bin; Li, Dawei

2016-01-01

Spatial and temporal variations in the vertical stratification of the troposphere introduce significant propagation delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations. Observations of small amplitude surface deformations and regional subsidence rates are plagued by tropospheric delays, and strongly correlated with topographic height variations. Phase-based tropospheric correction techniques assuming a linear relationship between interferometric phase and topography have been exploited and developed, with mixed success. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric phase delay however plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of InSAR measurements. Meanwhile, few phase-based correction methods account for the spatially variable tropospheric delay over lager study regions. Here, we present a robust and multi-weighted approach to estimate the correlation between phase and topography that is relatively insensitive to confounding processes such as regional subsidence over larger regions as well as under varying tropospheric conditions. An expanded form of robust least squares is introduced to estimate the spatially variable correlation between phase and topography by splitting the interferograms into multiple blocks. Within each block, correlation is robustly estimated from the band-filtered phase and topography. Phase-elevation ratios are multiply- weighted and extrapolated to each persistent scatter (PS) pixel. We applied the proposed method to Envisat ASAR images over the Southern California area, USA, and found that our method mitigated the atmospheric noise better than the conventional phase-based method. The corrected ground surface deformation agreed better with those measured from GPS. PMID:27420066

A Robust and Multi-Weighted Approach to Estimating Topographically Correlated Tropospheric Delays in Radar Interferograms.

PubMed

Zhu, Bangyan; Li, Jiancheng; Chu, Zhengwei; Tang, Wei; Wang, Bin; Li, Dawei

2016-07-12

Spatial and temporal variations in the vertical stratification of the troposphere introduce significant propagation delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations. Observations of small amplitude surface deformations and regional subsidence rates are plagued by tropospheric delays, and strongly correlated with topographic height variations. Phase-based tropospheric correction techniques assuming a linear relationship between interferometric phase and topography have been exploited and developed, with mixed success. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric phase delay however plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of InSAR measurements. Meanwhile, few phase-based correction methods account for the spatially variable tropospheric delay over lager study regions. Here, we present a robust and multi-weighted approach to estimate the correlation between phase and topography that is relatively insensitive to confounding processes such as regional subsidence over larger regions as well as under varying tropospheric conditions. An expanded form of robust least squares is introduced to estimate the spatially variable correlation between phase and topography by splitting the interferograms into multiple blocks. Within each block, correlation is robustly estimated from the band-filtered phase and topography. Phase-elevation ratios are multiply- weighted and extrapolated to each persistent scatter (PS) pixel. We applied the proposed method to Envisat ASAR images over the Southern California area, USA, and found that our method mitigated the atmospheric noise better than the conventional phase-based method. The corrected ground surface deformation agreed better with those measured from GPS.

A Nation-Wide Study of Prevalence and Risk Factors for Fecal Impaction in Nursing Homes

PubMed Central

Rey, Enrique; Barcelo, Marta; Jiménez Cebrián, Maria Jose; Alvarez-Sanchez, Angel; Diaz-Rubio, Manuel; Rocha, Alberto Lopez

2014-01-01

Background There are no existing studies that provide data regarding the epidemiology of, and risk factors for, fecal impaction, either in the general population or in any sub-group of people. Objective Estimate the prevalence of and factors associated with fecal impaction on a representative sample of the institutionalized elderly population. Design Two-phase study. Phase 1: pilot study validating the methodology in which all residents of a single nursing home participated. Phase 2: national multi-center cross-sectional study. Setting 34 randomly selected nursing homes. Measurements The presence of fecal impaction and associated factors were evaluated using three different tools: data collected from medical records; a self-completion questionnaire filled out by the subjects or a proxy; and a rectal examination. Subjects Older subjects living in nursing homes. Results The prevalence of chronic constipation was 70.7% (95%CI: 67.3–74.1%), of which 95.9% of patients were properly diagnosed and 43.1% were properly controlled. The prevalence of FI according to patient history was 47.3% (43.6–51.0%) and 6.6% (4.7–8.5%) according to rectal examination. Controlled constipation (OR: 9.8 [5.2–18.4]) and uncontrolled constipation (OR: 37.21 [19.7–70.1]), the number of medications (OR: 1.2 [1.1–1.3]), reduced functional capacity (OR: 0.98 [0.97–0.99]) and the occasional use of NSAIDs were independent risk factors for fecal impaction. Conclusions Constipation affects more than 70% of people living in nursing homes. Although it is properly diagnosed in more than 95% of cases, the disease is only controlled in less than 50%. Constipation, especially when not controlled, is the most significant risk factor leading to fecal impaction, which is prevalent in almost 50% of this population. PMID:25148393

MATD Operational Phase: Experiences and Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messidoro, P.; Bader, M.; Brunner, O.; Cerrato, A.; Sembenini, G.

2004-08-01

The Model And Test Effectiveness Database (MATD) initiative is ending the first year of its operational phase. MATD represents a common repository of project data, Assembly Integration and Verification (AIV) data, on ground and flight anomalies data, of recent space projects, and offers, with the application of specific methodologies, the possibility to analyze the collected data in order to improve the test philosophies and the related standards. Basically the following type of results can be derived from the database: - Statistics on ground failures and flight anomalies - Feed-back from the flight anomalies to the Test Philosophies - Test Effectiveness evaluation at system and lower levels - Estimate of the index of effectiveness of a specific Model and Test Philosophy in comparison with the applicable standards - Simulation of different Test philosophies and related balancing of Risk/cost/schedule on the basis of MATD data The paper after a short presentation of the status of the MATD initiative, summarises the most recent lessons learned which are resulting from the data analysis and highlights how MATD is being utilized for the actual risk/cost/schedule/Test effectiveness evaluations of the past programmes so as for the prediction of the new space projects.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Testing UnISERA, a guide for uncertainty assessment.

PubMed

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2017-06-01

A means for identifying and prioritising the treatment of uncertainty (UnISERA) in environmental risk assessments (ERAs) is tested, using three risk domains where ERA is an established requirement and one in which ERA practice is emerging. UnISERA's development draws on 19 expert elicitations across genetically modified higher plants, particulate matter, and agricultural pesticide release and is stress tested here for engineered nanomaterials (ENM). We are concerned with the severity of uncertainty; its nature; and its location across four accepted stages of ERAs. Using an established uncertainty scale, the risk characterisation stage of ERA harbours the highest severity level of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating expressions of risk. Combined epistemic and aleatory uncertainty is the dominant nature of uncertainty. The dominant location of uncertainty is associated with data in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. Testing UnISERA produced agreements of 55%, 90%, and 80% for the severity level, nature and location dimensions of uncertainty between the combined case studies and the ENM stress test. UnISERA enables environmental risk analysts to prioritise risk assessment phases, groups of tasks, or individual ERA tasks and it can direct them towards established methods for uncertainty treatment. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Genetic and environmental contributions to cardiovascular disease risk in American Indians: the strong heart family study.

PubMed

North, Kari E; Howard, Barbara V; Welty, Thomas K; Best, Lyle G; Lee, Elisa T; Yeh, J L; Fabsitz, Richard R; Roman, Mary J; MacCluer, Jean W

2003-02-15

The aims of the Strong Heart Family Study are to clarify the genetic determinants of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in American Indians and to map and identify genes for CVD susceptibility. The authors describe the design of the Strong Heart Family Study (conducted between 1998 and 1999) and evaluate the heritabilities of CVD risk factors in American Indians from this study. In the first phase of the study, approximately 950 individuals, aged 18 years or more, in 32 extended families, were examined. The examination consisted of a personal interview, physical examination, laboratory tests, and an ultrasound examination of the carotid arteries. The phenotypes measured during the physical examination included anthropometry, lipoproteins, blood pressure, glycemic status, and clotting factors. Heritabilities for CVD risk factor phenotypes were estimated using a variance component approach and the program SOLAR. After accounting for the effects of covariates, the authors detected significant heritabilities for many CVD risk factor phenotypes (e.g., high density lipoprotein cholesterol (heritability = 0.50) and diastolic blood pressure (heritability = 0.34)). These results suggest that heredity explains a substantial proportion of the variability of CVD risk factors and that these heritabilities are large enough to warrant a search for major risk factor genes.

Supersensitive ancilla-based adaptive quantum phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Walker; Saleh, Bahaa E. A.

2017-10-01

The supersensitivity attained in quantum phase estimation is known to be compromised in the presence of decoherence. This is particularly patent at blind spots—phase values at which sensitivity is totally lost. One remedy is to use a precisely known reference phase to shift the operation point to a less vulnerable phase value. Since this is not always feasible, we present here an alternative approach based on combining the probe with an ancillary degree of freedom containing adjustable parameters to create an entangled quantum state of higher dimension. We validate this concept by simulating a configuration of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer with a two-photon probe and a polarization ancilla of adjustable parameters, entangled at a polarizing beam splitter. At the interferometer output, the photons are measured after an adjustable unitary transformation in the polarization subspace. Through calculation of the Fisher information and simulation of an estimation procedure, we show that optimizing the adjustable polarization parameters using an adaptive measurement process provides globally supersensitive unbiased phase estimates for a range of decoherence levels, without prior information or a reference phase.

Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

2003-06-01

There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq) are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2) over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2) for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk"? submarine study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

2003-03-01

There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the "Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 1011 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

ORANGES evaluation phase I risk assessment report : phase I of the US DOT sponsored evaluation of the ORANGES electronic payment system field operational test

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-11

This document is the US DOT evaluation Risk Assessment report for Phase I of the ORANGES field operational test. This document consolidates working papers and incorporates an assessment of issues, risks, mitigation strategies and lessons learned look...

Phthalate exposure, flavonoid consumption and breast cancer risk among Mexican women.

PubMed

Mérida-Ortega, Ángel; Hernández-Alcaraz, César; Hernández-Ramírez, Raúl U; García-Martínez, Angélica; Trejo-Valdivia, Belem; Salinas-Rodríguez, Aarón; Svensson, Katherine; Cebrián, Mariano E; Franco-Marina, Francisco; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth

2016-11-01

To evaluate if selected phthalate exposure and flavonoid intake interact on breast cancer (BC) risk. Interviews and urine samples were obtained from 233 women with histologically confirmed BC and 221 healthy controls matched by age and place of residence, from various states of northern Mexico. Urinary metabolites concentrations of diethyl phthalate (DEP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP) and dioctyl phthalate (DOP) were determined by solid-phase extraction coupled with high-performance liquid chromatography/isotope dilution/tandem mass spectrometry. Using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire, consumption of five types of flavonoids (anthocyanidins, flavan-3-ols, flavanones, flavones and flavonols) was estimated according to three food groups: vegetables, fruits and legumes-oil seeds. A higher intake of anthocyanidins and flavan-3-ols (from vegetables), synergistically increased the negative association between BBzP and BC. No other significant flavonoid-phthalate multiplicative interactions on the risk for BC were found. The consumption of some flavonoids may interact with exposure to phthalates on the risk of BC. Epidemiological and underlying mechanisms information is still insufficient and requires further investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving Estimates Of Phase Parameters When Amplitude Fluctuates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, V. A.; Brown, D. H.; Hurd, W. J.

1989-01-01

Adaptive inverse filter applied to incoming signal and noise. Time-varying inverse-filtering technique developed to improve digital estimate of phase of received carrier signal. Intended for use where received signal fluctuates in amplitude as well as in phase and signal tracked by digital phase-locked loop that keeps its phase error much smaller than 1 radian. Useful in navigation systems, reception of time- and frequency-standard signals, and possibly spread-spectrum communication systems.

An improved method for estimating capillary pressure from 3D microtomography images and its application to the study of disconnected nonwetting phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianyi; Schlüter, Steffen; Dragila, Maria Ines; Wildenschild, Dorthe

2018-04-01

We present an improved method for estimating interfacial curvatures from x-ray computed microtomography (CMT) data that significantly advances the potential for this tool to unravel the mechanisms and phenomena associated with multi-phase fluid motion in porous media. CMT data, used to analyze the spatial distribution and capillary pressure-saturation (Pc-S) relationships of liquid phases, requires accurate estimates of interfacial curvature. Our improved method for curvature estimation combines selective interface modification and distance weighting approaches. It was verified against synthetic (analytical computer-generated) and real image data sets, demonstrating a vast improvement over previous methods. Using this new tool on a previously published data set (multiphase flow) yielded important new insights regarding the pressure state of the disconnected nonwetting phase during drainage and imbibition. The trapped and disconnected non-wetting phase delimits its own hysteretic Pc-S curve that inhabits the space within the main hysteretic Pc-S loop of the connected wetting phase. Data suggests that the pressure of the disconnected, non-wetting phase is strongly modified by the pore geometry rather than solely by the bulk liquid phase that surrounds it.

Estimation of phase derivatives using discrete chirp-Fourier-transform-based method.

PubMed

Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

2009-08-15

Estimation of phase derivatives is an important task in many interferometric measurements in optical metrology. This Letter introduces a method based on discrete chirp-Fourier transform for accurate and direct estimation of phase derivatives, even in the presence of noise. The method is introduced in the context of the analysis of reconstructed interference fields in digital holographic interferometry. We present simulation and experimental results demonstrating the utility of the proposed method.

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Phase 2 evaluation report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Documentation of the activities of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment during the 1976 Northern Hemisphere crop year is presented. A brief overview of the experiment is included as well as phase two area, yield, and production estimates for the United States Great Plains, Canada, and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics spring winter wheat regions. The accuracies of these estimates are compared with independent government estimates. Accuracy assessment of the United States Great Plains yardstick region based on a through blind sight analysis is given, and reasons for variations in estimating performance are discussed. Other phase two technical activities including operations, exploratory analysis, reporting, methods of assessment, phase three and advanced system design, technical issues, and developmental activities are also included.

Incorporating Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus

2011-01-01

This presentation is about cost risk identification and estimation which is only a part of risk management. The purpose of this step is to identify common software risks, to assess their impact on the cost estimate, and to make revisions to the estimate based on these impacts.

Performance improvement of coherent free-space optical communication with quadrature phase-shift keying modulation using digital phase estimation.

PubMed

Li, Xueliang; Geng, Tianwen; Ma, Shuang; Li, Yatian; Gao, Shijie; Wu, Zhiyong

2017-06-01

The performance of coherent free-space optical (CFSO) communication with phase modulation is limited by both phase fluctuations and intensity scintillations induced by atmospheric turbulence. To improve the system performance, one effective way is to use digital phase estimation. In this paper, a CFSO communication system with quadrature phase-shift keying modulation is studied. With consideration of the effects of log-normal amplitude fluctuations and Gauss phase fluctuations, a two-stage Mth power carrier phase estimation (CPE) scheme is proposed. The simulation results show that the phase noise can be suppressed greatly by this scheme, and the system symbol error rate performance with the two-stage Mth power CPE can be three orders lower than that of the single-stage Mth power CPE. Therefore, the two-stage CPE we proposed can contribute to the performance improvements of the CFSO communication system and has determinate guidance sense to its actual application.

Communication about the Risks and Benefits of Phase I Pediatric Oncology Trials

PubMed Central

Hazen, Rebecca A.; Zyzanski, Stephen; Baker, Justin; Drotar, Dennis; Kodish, Eric

2015-01-01

Introduction Phase 1 pediatric oncology trials offer only a small chance of direct benefit and may have significant risks and an impact on quality of life. To date, research has not examined discussions of risks and benefits during informed consent conferences for phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. The objective of the current study was to examine clinician and family communication about risks, benefits, and quality of life during informed consent conferences for phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. Methods Participants included clinician investigators, parents, and children recruited from 6 sites conducting phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. Eighty-five informed consent conferences were observed and audiotaped. Trained coders assessed discussions of risks, benefits, and quality of life. Types of risks discussed were coded (e.g., unanticipated risks, digestive system risks, death). Types of benefits were categorized as therapeutic (e.g. discussion of how participation may or may not directly benefit child), psychological, bridge to future trial, and altruism. Results Risks and benefits were discussed in 95% and 88% of informed consent conferences, respectively. Therapeutic benefit was the most frequently discussed benefit. The impact of trial participation on quality of life was discussed in the majority (88%) of informed consent conferences. Conclusion Therapeutic benefit, risks, and quality of life were frequently discussed. The range of information discussed during informed consent conferences suggests the need for considering a staged process of informed consent for phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. PMID:25638751

Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

PubMed

Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

1998-01-01

Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

A model of hygiene practices and consumption patterns in the consumer phase.

PubMed

Christensen, Bjarke B; Rosenquist, Hanne; Sommer, Helle M; Nielsen, Niels L; Fagt, Sisse; Andersen, Niels L; Nørrung, Birgit

2005-02-01

A mathematical model is presented, which addresses individual hygiene practices during food preparation and consumption patterns in private homes. Further, the model links food preparers and consumers based on their relationship to household types. For different age and gender groups, the model estimates (i) the probability of ingesting a meal where precautions have not been taken to avoid the transfer of microorganisms from raw food to final meal (a risk meal), exemplified by the event that the cutting board was not washed during food preparation, and (ii) the probability of ingesting a risk meal in a private home, where chicken was the prepared food item (a chicken risk meal). Chicken was included in the model, as chickens are believed to be the major source of human exposure to the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the probability of ingesting a risk meal was highest for young males (aged 18-29 years) and lowest for the elderly above 60 years of age. Children aged 0-4 years had a higher probability of ingesting a risk meal than children aged 5-17 years. This difference between age and gender groups was ascribed to the variations in the hygiene levels of food preparers. By including the probability of ingesting a chicken meal at home, simulations revealed that all age groups, except the group above 60 years of age, had approximately the same probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal, the probability of females being slightly higher than that of males. The simulated results show that the probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal at home does not only depend on the hygiene practices of the persons preparing the food, but also on the consumption patterns of consumers, and the relationship between people preparing and ingesting food. This finding supports the need of including information on consumer behavior and preparation hygiene in the consumer phase of exposure assessments.

Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

PubMed

Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

2015-10-01

Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

MIMO channel estimation and evaluation for airborne traffic surveillance in cellular networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahidi, Vahid; Saberinia, Ebrahim

2018-01-01

A channel estimation (CE) procedure based on compressed sensing is proposed to estimate the multiple-input multiple-output sparse channel for traffic data transmission from drones to ground stations. The proposed procedure consists of an offline phase and a real-time phase. In the offline phase, a pilot arrangement method, which considers the interblock and block mutual coherence simultaneously, is proposed. The real-time phase contains three steps. At the first step, it obtains the priori estimate of the channel by block orthogonal matching pursuit; afterward, it utilizes that estimated channel to calculate the linear minimum mean square error of the received pilots. Finally, the block compressive sampling matching pursuit utilizes the enhanced received pilots to estimate the channel more accurately. The performance of the CE procedure is evaluated by simulating the transmission of traffic data through the communication channel and evaluating its fidelity for car detection after demodulation. Simulation results indicate that the proposed CE technique enhances the performance of the car detection in a traffic image considerably.

Phase-Locked Loop for Precisely Timed Acoustic Stimulation during Sleep

PubMed Central

Santostasi, Giovanni; Malkani, Roneil; Riedner, Brady; Bellesi, Michele; Tononi, Giulio; Paller, Ken A.; Zee, Phyllis C.

2016-01-01

Background A Brain-Computer Interface could potentially enhance the various benefits of sleep. New Method We describe a strategy for enhancing slow-wave sleep (SWS) by stimulating the sleeping brain with periodic acoustic stimuli that produce resonance in the form of enhanced slow-wave activity in the electroencephalogram (EEG). The system delivers each acoustic stimulus at a particular phase of an electrophysiological rhythm using a Phase-Locked Loop (PLL). Results The PLL is computationally economical and well suited to follow and predict the temporal behavior of the EEG during slow-wave sleep. Comparison with Existing Methods Acoustic stimulation methods may be able to enhance SWS without the risks inherent in electrical stimulation or pharmacological methods. The PLL method differs from other acoustic stimulation methods that are based on detecting a single slow wave rather than modeling slow-wave activity over an extended period of time. Conclusions By providing real-time estimates of the phase of ongoing EEG oscillations, the PLL can rapidly adjust to physiological changes, thus opening up new possibilities to study brain dynamics during sleep. Future application of these methods hold promise for enhancing sleep quality and associated daytime behavior and improving physiologic function. PMID:26617321

Risk of hydrocyanic acid release in the electroplating industry.

PubMed

Piccinini, N; Ruggiero, G N; Baldi, G; Robotto, A

2000-01-07

This paper suggests assessing the consequences of hydrocyanic acid (HCN) release into the air by aqueous cyanide solutions in abnormal situations such as the accidental introduction of an acid, or the insertion of a cyanide in a pickling bath. It provides a well-defined source model and its resolution by methods peculiar to mass transport phenomena. The procedure consists of four stages: calculation of the liquid phase concentration, estimate of the HCN liquid-vapour equilibrium, determination of the mass transfer coefficient at the liquid-vapour interface, evaluation of the air concentration of HCN and of the damage distances. The results show that small baths operating at high temperatures are the major sources of risk. The building up of lethal air concentrations, on the other hand, is governed by the values of the mass transfer coefficient, which is itself determined by the flow dynamics and bath geometry. Concerning the magnitude of the risk, the fallout for external emergency planning is slight in all the cases investigated.

Chagas disease in Switzerland: history and challenges.

PubMed

Jackson, Y; Chappuis, F

2011-09-15

Chagas disease, endemic in Latin America, is an emerging health problem in Europe affecting an estimated 80,000 persons. Around 60,000 Latin American migrants live in Switzerland, and cases of Chagas disease have been reported since 1979. As of June 2011, 258 cases have been diagnosed, mostly adults in the indeterminate phase of the chronic stage of the disease. Vertical transmission has been identified and there is a high potential for blood- and organ-borne transmission in the absence of systematic screening. Major challenges include (i) raising awareness among migrants and healthcare professionals, (ii) developing national protocols for screening and treatment targeting high-risk groups such as pregnant woman, newborns, migrants from highly endemic areas (e.g. Bolivia), and immunocompromised migrants, (iii) preventing blood- and organ-borne transmission by appropriate screening strategies, (iv) taking into account the social vulnerability of individuals at risk in the design and implementation of public health programmes, and (v) facilitating contacts with the communities at risk through outreach programmes, for example in churches and cultural groups.

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, J.; Lum, K.

2002-01-01

In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

Inventory and mapping of flood inundation using interactive digital image analysis techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohde, Wayne G.; Nelson, Charles A.; Taranik, J.V.

1979-01-01

LANDSAT digital data and color infra-red photographs were used in a multiphase sampling scheme to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by a flood. The LANDSAT data were classified with a maximum likelihood algorithm. Stratification of the LANDSAT data, prior to classification, greatly reduced misclassification errors. The classification results were used to prepare a map overlay showing the areal extent of flooding. These data also provided statistics required to estimate sample size in a two phase sampling scheme, and provided quick, accurate estimates of areas flooded for the first phase. The measurements made in the second phase, based on ground data and photo-interpretation, were used with two phase sampling statistics to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by flooding These results show that LANDSAT digital data can be used to prepare map overlays showing the extent of flooding on agricultural land and, with two phase sampling procedures, can provide acreage estimates with sampling errors of about 5 percent. This procedure provides a technique for rapidly assessing the areal extent of flood conditions on agricultural land and would provide a basis for designing a sampling framework to estimate the impact of flooding on crop production.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry: analysis of pediatric fat estimate errors due to tissue hydration effects.

PubMed

Testolin, C G; Gore, R; Rivkin, T; Horlick, M; Arbo, J; Wang, Z; Chiumello, G; Heymsfield, S B

2000-12-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) percent (%) fat estimates may be inaccurate in young children, who typically have high tissue hydration levels. This study was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of pediatric tissue hydration effects on DXA %fat estimates. Phase 1 was experimental and included three in vitro studies to establish the physical basis of DXA %fat-estimation models. Phase 2 extended phase 1 models and consisted of theoretical calculations to estimate the %fat errors emanating from previously reported pediatric hydration effects. Phase 1 experiments supported the two-compartment DXA soft tissue model and established that pixel ratio of low to high energy (R values) are a predictable function of tissue elemental content. In phase 2, modeling of reference body composition values from birth to age 120 mo revealed that %fat errors will arise if a "constant" adult lean soft tissue R value is applied to the pediatric population; the maximum %fat error, approximately 0.8%, would be present at birth. High tissue hydration, as observed in infants and young children, leads to errors in DXA %fat estimates. The magnitude of these errors based on theoretical calculations is small and may not be of clinical or research significance.

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

Occurrence and risk assessment of four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics in raw and treated sewage and in receiving waters in Hangzhou, China.

PubMed

Tong, Changlun; Zhuo, Xiajun; Guo, Yun

2011-07-13

A sensitive liquid chromatography-fluorescence detection method, combined with one-step solid-phase extraction, was established for detecting the residual levels of the four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics (ofloxacin, norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and enrofloxacin) in influent, effluent, and surface waters from Hangzhou, China. For the various environmental water matrices, the overall recoveries were from 76.8 to 122%, and no obvious interferences of matrix effect were observed. The limit of quantitation of this method was estimated to be 17 ng/L for ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin, 20 ng/L for ofloxacin, and 27 ng/L for enrofloxacin. All of the four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics were found in the wastewaters and surface waters. The residual contents of the four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics in influent, effluent, and surface water samples are 108-1405, 54-429, and 7.0-51.6 ng/L, respectively. The removal rates of the selected fluoroquinolone antibiotics were 69.5 (ofloxacin), 61.3 (norfloxacin), and 50% (enrofloxacin), indicating that activated sludge treatment is effective except for ciprofloxacin and necessary to remove these fluoroquinolone antibiotics in municipal sewage. The risk to the aquatic environment was estimated by a ratio of measured environmental concentration and predicted no-effect concentration. At the concentrations, these fluoroquinolone antibiotics were found in influent, effluent, and surface waters, and they should not pose a risk for the aquatic environment.

Validation of a novel air toxic risk model with air monitoring.

PubMed

Pratt, Gregory C; Dymond, Mary; Ellickson, Kristie; Thé, Jesse

2012-01-01

Three modeling systems were used to estimate human health risks from air pollution: two versions of MNRiskS (for Minnesota Risk Screening), and the USEPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). MNRiskS is a unique cumulative risk modeling system used to assess risks from multiple air toxics, sources, and pathways on a local to a state-wide scale. In addition, ambient outdoor air monitoring data were available for estimation of risks and comparison with the modeled estimates of air concentrations. Highest air concentrations and estimated risks were generally found in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and lowest risks in undeveloped rural areas. Emissions from mobile and area (nonpoint) sources created greater estimated risks than emissions from point sources. Highest cancer risks were via ingestion pathway exposures to dioxins and related compounds. Diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde created the highest estimated inhalation health impacts. Model-estimated air concentrations were generally highest for NATA and lowest for the AERMOD version of MNRiskS. This validation study showed reasonable agreement between available measurements and model predictions, although results varied among pollutants, and predictions were often lower than measurements. The results increased confidence in identifying pollutants, pathways, geographic areas, sources, and receptors of potential concern, and thus provide a basis for informing pollution reduction strategies and focusing efforts on specific pollutants (diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde), geographic areas (urban centers), and source categories (nonpoint sources). The results heighten concerns about risks from food chain exposures to dioxins and PAHs. Risk estimates were sensitive to variations in methodologies for treating emissions, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and toxicity. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of Pollution, Prevention & Toxics (OPPT)'s Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators model (RSEI). The model uses the reported quantities of TRI releases of chemicals to estimate the impacts associated with each type of air release or transfer by every TRI facility.The RSEI was run to generate the estimate risk for each TRI facility in the region. The result from the model is joined to the TRI spatial data. Estimate risk values for each census block group were calculated based on the inverse distance of all the facilities which are within a 50 km radius of the census block group centroid. The estimate risk value for each census block group thus is an aggregated value that takes into account the estimate potential risk of all the facilities within the searching radius (50km).

Explaining Behavior Change after Genetic Testing: The Problem of Collinearity between Test Results and Risk Estimates

PubMed Central

Fanshawe, Thomas R.; Prevost, A. Toby; Roberts, J. Scott; Green, Robert C.; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M.

2010-01-01

This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed ε4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in ε4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving ε4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and ε4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an ε4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates. PMID:18666860

Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

PubMed

Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

2008-09-01

This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

The influence of a time-varying least squares parametric model when estimating SFOAEs evoked with swept-frequency tones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajicek, Joshua J.; Selesnick, Ivan W.; Henin, Simon; Talmadge, Carrick L.; Long, Glenis R.

2018-05-01

Stimulus frequency otoacoustic emissions (SFOAEs) were evoked and estimated using swept-frequency tones with and without the use of swept suppressor tones. SFOAEs were estimated using a least-squares fitting procedure. The estimated SFOAEs for the two paradigms (with- and without-suppression) were similar in amplitude and phase. The fitting procedure minimizes the square error between a parametric model of total ear-canal pressure (with unknown amplitudes and phases) and ear-canal pressure acquired during each paradigm. Modifying the parametric model to allow SFOAE amplitude and phase to vary over time revealed additional amplitude and phase fine structure in the without-suppressor, but not the with-suppressor paradigm. The use of a time-varying parametric model to estimate SFOAEs without-suppression may provide additional information about cochlear mechanics not available when using a with-suppressor paradigm.

Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

2004-01-01

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

Additional mailing phase for FIT after a medical offer phase: The best way to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening in France.

PubMed

Piette, Christine; Durand, Gérard; Bretagne, Jean-François; Faivre, Jean

2017-03-01

Compliance with colorectal cancer screening is critical to its effectiveness. The organisation of the mass screening programme in France has recently been modified with no evaluation of the consequences. To evaluate the impact of the way the screening test is delivered on compliance. During the first six months of the screening campaign (Ille-Vilaine, Brittany), general practitioners were asked to propose a faecal immunochemical test (FIT), OC-Sensor, to individuals at average risk for colorectal cancer (n=152,097). A subset of non-participants in the medical phase (n=13,071) was randomly chosen to receive a reminder that included the screening test or a simple postal reminder without the screening test. Compliance was 31% if the screening test was proposed during a medical consultation. In non-participants during the medical phase, it was 45% in those receiving both a reminder and the screening test and 28% amongst those receiving a simple reminder. An estimated overall participation rate of 54% can be expected if non-participants in the medical phase are sent a reminder together with the screening test. In France, a compliance rate above the minimum uptake rate of 45% recommended by European Union experts can be achieved if the FIT is mailed to non-participants after the medical free-offer phase. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Stigma, lack of knowledge and prevalence maintain HIV risk among Black Africans in New Zealand.

PubMed

Henrickson, Mark; Dickson, Nigel; Mhlanga, Fungai; Ludlam, Adrian

2015-02-01

The AfricaNZ Health project aimed explore HIV risks in Black African communities in NZ with a view to informing HIV infection prevention and health promotion programs. AfricaNZ Health was completed in two phases. The first developed desk estimates of the resident Black African population in New Zealand, and Africans living with HIV. The second comprised two arms: an anonymous survey administered at African community events and a series of focus groups around the country. High levels of knowledge and positive attitudes about HIV were more often found in older than younger age groups. Condom use was higher in the younger group than in older age groups. Traditional attitudes still inform some beliefs about HIV. Stigma about HIV and anyone at risk for HIV remains very high among Africans. Western sexual identity constructs are not meaningful. A culturally informed strategy for risk and stigma reduction is urgently needed. The existing prevention and care infrastructure, informed by MSM experiences, must address increased risk to Black African new settlers, but this is not a reason to discriminate or further stigmatise an already vulnerable population. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavana, Madjid

2003-01-01

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Use of screening tests to assess cancer risk and to estimate the risk of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.

PubMed Central

Yanagawa, T; Tokudome, S

1990-01-01

We developed methods to assess the cancer risks by screening tests. These methods estimate the size of the high risk group adjusted for the characteristics of screening tests and estimate the incidence rates of cancer among the high risk group adjusted for the characteristics of the tests. A method was also developed for selecting the cut-off point of a screening test. Finally, the methods were applied to estimate the risk of the adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. PMID:2269244

Estimation of the Arrival Time and Duration of a Radio Signal with Unknown Amplitude and Initial Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trifonov, A. P.; Korchagin, Yu. E.; Korol'kov, S. V.

2018-05-01

We synthesize the quasi-likelihood, maximum-likelihood, and quasioptimal algorithms for estimating the arrival time and duration of a radio signal with unknown amplitude and initial phase. The discrepancies between the hardware and software realizations of the estimation algorithm are shown. The characteristics of the synthesized-algorithm operation efficiency are obtained. Asymptotic expressions for the biases, variances, and the correlation coefficient of the arrival-time and duration estimates, which hold true for large signal-to-noise ratios, are derived. The accuracy losses of the estimates of the radio-signal arrival time and duration because of the a priori ignorance of the amplitude and initial phase are determined.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the urban atmosphere of Nepal: Distribution, sources, seasonal trends, and cancer risk.

PubMed

Pokhrel, Balram; Gong, Ping; Wang, Xiaoping; Wang, Chuanfei; Gao, Shaoping

2018-03-15

Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas have always been a global concern, as these areas are considered to be the source region. Despite studies on the concentrations of PAHs in water, soils and sediments, knowledge of the distribution patterns, seasonality and sources of PAHs in urban areas of Nepal remains limited. In this study, polyurethane foam passive air samplers were used to measure gas-phase PAH concentrations over different land types in three major cities of Nepal-namely, Kathmandu (the capital) and Pokhara (both densely populated cities), and Hetauda (an agricultural city). The average concentrations of ∑15PAHs in ng/m 3 were 16.1±7.0 (6.4-28.6), 14.1±6.2 (6.8-29.4) and 11.1±9.0 (4.1-38.0) in Kathmandu, Pokhara and Hetauda, respectively. Molecular diagnostic ratio analysis suggested that fossil fuel combustion was a common PAH source for all three cities. In addition to this, coal combustion in Kathmandu, vehicle emissions in Pokhara, and grass/wood combustion in Hetauda were also possible sources of PAHs. In terms of cancer risk from PAH inhalation, a religious site with intense incense burning, a brick production area where extensive coal combustion is common, and a market place with heavy traffic emission, were associated with a higher risk than other areas. There were no clear seasonal trends in atmospheric PAHs. The estimated cancer risk due to inhalation of gas-phase PAHs exceeded the USEPA standard at >90% of the sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori J.; Wang, Minli; Kim, Myung-Hee

2011-01-01

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Mars Rover/Sample Return - Phase A cost estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stancati, Michael L.; Spadoni, Daniel J.

1990-01-01

This paper presents a preliminary cost estimate for the design and development of the Mars Rover/Sample Return (MRSR) mission. The estimate was generated using a modeling tool specifically built to provide useful cost estimates from design parameters of the type and fidelity usually available during early phases of mission design. The model approach and its application to MRSR are described.

Risk communication and radiological/nuclear terrorism: a strategic view.

PubMed

Becker, Steven M

2011-11-01

It is now widely recognized that effective communication is a crucial element in radiological/nuclear terrorism preparedness. Whereas in the past, communication and information issues were sometimes viewed as secondary in comparison with technical concerns, today the need to improve risk communication, public information, and emergency messaging is seen as a high priority. The process of improving radiological/nuclear terrorism risk communication can be conceptualized as occurring in four overlapping phases. The first phase involves the recognition that communication and information issues will be pivotal in shaping how a radiological/nuclear terrorism incident unfolds and in determining its outcome. This recognition has helped shape the second phase, in which various research initiatives have been undertaken to provide an empirical basis for improved communication. In the third and most recent phase, government agencies, professional organizations and others have worked to translate research findings into better messages and informational materials. Like the first and second phases, the third phase is still unfolding. The fourth phase in risk communication for radiological/nuclear terrorism-a mature phase-is only now just beginning. Central to this phase is a developing understanding that for radiological/nuclear terrorism risk communication to be fully effective, it must go beyond crafting better messages and materials (as essential as that may be). This emerging fourth phase seeks to anchor radiological/nuclear communication in a broader approach: one that actively engages and partners with the public. In this article, each of the four stages is discussed, and future directions for improving radiological/nuclear terrorism risk communication are explored.

ASI-Volcanic Risk System (SRV): a pilot project to develop EO data processing modules and products for volcanic activity monitoring, first results.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvestri, M.; Musacchio, M.; Buongiorno, M. F.; Dini, L.

2009-04-01

The Project called Sistema Rischio Vulcanico (SRV) is funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) in the frame of the National Space Plan 2003-2005 under the Earth Observations section for natural risks management. The SRV Project is coordinated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) which is responsible at national level for the volcanic monitoring. The project philosophy is to implement, by incremental versions, specific modules which allow to process, store and visualize through Web GIS tools geophysical parameters suitable for volcanic risk management. The ASI-SRV is devoted to the development of an integrated system based on Earth Observation (EO) data to respond to specific needs of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) and improve the monitoring of Italian active volcanoes during all the risk phases (Pre Crisis, Crisis and Post Crisis). The ASI-SRV system provides support to risk managers during the different volcanic activity phases and its results are addressed to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC). SRV provides the capability to manage the import many different EO data into the system, it maintains a repository where the acquired data have to be stored and generates selected volcanic products. The processing modules for EO Optical sensors data are based on procedures jointly developed by INGV and University of Modena. This procedures allow to estimate a number of parameters such as: surface thermal proprieties, gas, aerosol and ash emissions and to characterize the volcanic products in terms of composition and geometry. For the analysis of the surface thermal characteristics, the available algorithms allow to extract information during the prevention phase and during the Warning and Crisis phase. In the prevention phase the thermal analysis is directed to the identification of temperature variation on volcanic structure which may indicate a change in the volcanic activity state. At the moment the only sensor that shows good technical characteristics for the prevention phase is the ASTER sensor (90 m pixel) on NASA satellite TERRA. The product regarding the Crisis phase is mainly finalized to the estimation of the effusion rate for active lava flows, the algorithms for this product are well consolidated and could be applied to the low spatial resolution space sensors (eg. AVHRR, MODIS) and to high spatial resolution space sensors (eg. Hyperion, ASTER). A further class of products regards the analysis of degassing plumes and eruptive clouds. The analysis of the emitted gas species from degassing plume is usually performed trough ground networks of instruments based on the spectral behaviour of the gas species, although many volcanoes in the world do not have such permanent networks. The SRV system will produce information on the concentration and flux of sulphur dioxide (SO2) water vapour and volcanic aerosol optical thickness by means of ASTER, MODIS and HYPERION data on Etna test site. The analysis of ash clouds will be made by means of already consolidated procedures which uses low spatial resolution sensors with an high revisit time (eg. AVHRR, MSG, MODIS). For the Post Crisis phase the required products will be obtained through classification algorithms and spectral analysis operated by the scientific personnel of INGV and introduced in the system repository after the use of modules. The processing modules for EO RADAR sensors data for ground deformation measurement via Differential Interferometric SAR (DInSAR) techniques is performed by IREA-CNR. The selected test sites are Etna, Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei caldera. In particular, ground deformation time series will be generated by using ERS and ENVISAT SAR data and via the application of the Small BAeline Subset (SBAS) technique. This algorithm has the advantage of being both simple and very effective; moreover, it allows an easy combination of multiplatform data, provided that the acquisition geometries of both platform are compatible. In this paper the first results obtained by means of modules developed within the ASI-SRV project and dedicated to the processing of EO historical series are presented.

23 CFR 630.106 - Authorization to proceed.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... estimate when the bid is approved, a project phase is completed, a design change is approved, etc...) phase(s) through the selection of a location. (3) Projects for ROW acquisition in hardship and... reflect any substantive change in the bids received as compared to the STD's estimated cost of the project...

23 CFR 630.106 - Authorization to proceed.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... estimate when the bid is approved, a project phase is completed, a design change is approved, etc...) phase(s) through the selection of a location. (3) Projects for ROW acquisition in hardship and... reflect any substantive change in the bids received as compared to the STD's estimated cost of the project...

23 CFR 630.106 - Authorization to proceed.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... estimate when the bid is approved, a project phase is completed, a design change is approved, etc...) phase(s) through the selection of a location. (3) Projects for ROW acquisition in hardship and... reflect any substantive change in the bids received as compared to the STD's estimated cost of the project...

Estimating propagation velocity through a surface acoustic wave sensor

DOEpatents

Xu, Wenyuan; Huizinga, John S.

2010-03-16

Techniques are described for estimating the propagation velocity through a surface acoustic wave sensor. In particular, techniques which measure and exploit a proper segment of phase frequency response of the surface acoustic wave sensor are described for use as a basis of bacterial detection by the sensor. As described, use of velocity estimation based on a proper segment of phase frequency response has advantages over conventional techniques that use phase shift as the basis for detection.

Effect of measurement protocol on organic aerosol measurements of exhaust emissions from gasoline and diesel vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Youngseob; Sartelet, Karine; Seigneur, Christian; Charron, Aurélie; Besombes, Jean-Luc; Jaffrezo, Jean-Luc; Marchand, Nicolas; Polo, Lucie

2016-09-01

Exhaust emissions of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) from passenger vehicles are usually estimated only for the particle phase via the total particulate matter measurements. However, they also need to be estimated for the gas phase, as they are semi-volatile. To better estimate SVOC emission factors of passenger vehicles, a measurement campaign using a chassis dynamometer was conducted with different instruments: (1) a constant volume sampling (CVS) system in which emissions were diluted with filtered air and sampling was performed on filters and polyurethane foams (PUF) and (2) a Dekati Fine Particle Sampler (FPS) in which emissions were diluted with purified air and sampled with on-line instruments (PTR-ToF-MS, HR-ToF-AMS, MAAP, CPC). Significant differences in the concentrations of organic carbon (OC) measured by the instruments are observed. The differences can be explained by sampling artefacts, differences between (1) the time elapsed during sampling (in the case of filter and PUF sampling) and (2) the time elapsed from emission to measurement (in the case of on-line instruments), which vary from a few seconds to 15 min, and by the different dilution factors. To relate elapsed times and measured concentrations of OC, the condensation of SVOC between the gas and particle phases is simulated with a dynamic aerosol model. The simulation results allow us to understand the relation between elapsed times and concentrations in the gas and particle phases. They indicate that the characteristic times to reach thermodynamic equilibrium between gas and particle phases may be as long as 8 min. Therefore, if the elapsed time is less than this characteristic time to reach equilibrium, gas-phase SVOC are not at equilibrium with the particle phase and a larger fraction of emitted SVOC will be in the gas phase than estimated by equilibrium theory, leading to an underestimation of emitted OC if only the particle phase is considered or if the gas-phase SVOC are estimated by equilibrium theory. Current European emission inventories for passenger cars do not yet estimate gas-phase SVOC emissions, although they may represent 60% of total emitted SVOC (gas + particle phases).

UPPER BOUND RISK ESTIMATES FOR MIXTURES OF CARCINOGENS

EPA Science Inventory

The excess cancer risk that might result from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens usually is estimated with data from experiments conducted on individual chemicals. An upper bound on the total excess risk is estimated commonly by summing individual upper bound risk esti...

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-30

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models that could quantify risk and provide a view of risk to support design and pricing of parametric disaster risk financing mechanisms. The third stage was to evaluate the usability of data sources and catastrophe models, and to develop index prototypes to outline how data and catastrophe models could be combined using local, regional and global data sources. Finally, the project identified priorities for investment to support the collection, analysis and evaluation of natural catastrophes in order to support disaster risk financing.

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Using Geothermal Play Types as an Analogue for Estimating Potential Resource Size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terry, Rachel; Young, Katherine

Blind geothermal systems are becoming increasingly common as more geothermal fields are developed. Geothermal development is known to have high risk in the early stages of a project development because reservoir characteristics are relatively unknown until wells are drilled. Play types (or occurrence models) categorize potential geothermal fields into groups based on geologic characteristics. To aid in lowering exploration risk, these groups' reservoir characteristics can be used as analogues in new site exploration. The play type schemes used in this paper were Moeck and Beardsmore play types (Moeck et al. 2014) and Brophy occurrence models (Brophy et al. 2011). Operatingmore » geothermal fields throughout the world were classified based on their associated play type, and then reservoir characteristics data were catalogued. The distributions of these characteristics were plotted in histograms to develop probability density functions for each individual characteristic. The probability density functions can be used as input analogues in Monte Carlo estimations of resource potential for similar play types in early exploration phases. A spreadsheet model was created to estimate resource potential in undeveloped fields. The user can choose to input their own values for each reservoir characteristic or choose to use the probability distribution functions provided from the selected play type. This paper also addresses the United States Geological Survey's 1978 and 2008 assessment of geothermal resources by comparing their estimated values to reported values from post-site development. Information from the collected data was used in the comparison for thirty developed sites in the United States. No significant trends or suggestions for methodologies could be made by the comparison.« less

Genetic assessment of age-associated Alzheimer disease risk: Development and validation of a polygenic hazard score

PubMed Central

Cupples, L. Adrienne; Thompson, Wesley K.; Besser, Lilah; Kukull, Walter A.; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Brewer, James B.; Karow, David S.; Kauppi, Karolina; Bonham, Luke W.; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Dillon, William P.; Wilson, David M.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret; Haines, Jonathan L.; Farrer, Lindsay A.; Mayeux, Richard; Hardy, John; Goate, Alison M.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Andreassen, Ole A.

2017-01-01

Background Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction. Methods and findings Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP Stage 1), we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10−5). We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer’s Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC), providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS) for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer’s Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680). Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62–4.24, p = 1.0 × 10−22). In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10−26) and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran–Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10−10), and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10−6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10−6) and in vivo markers of AD neurodegeneration (ADNI, volume loss within the entorhinal cortex, p = 6.3 × 10−6, and hippocampus, p = 7.9 × 10−5). Additional prospective validation of these results in non-US, non-white, and prospective community-based cohorts is necessary before clinical use. Conclusions We have developed a PHS for quantifying individual differences in age-specific genetic risk for AD. Within the cohorts studied here, polygenic architecture plays an important role in modifying AD risk beyond APOE. With thorough validation, quantification of inherited genetic variation may prove useful for stratifying AD risk and as an enrichment strategy in therapeutic trials. PMID:28323831

Genetic assessment of age-associated Alzheimer disease risk: Development and validation of a polygenic hazard score.

PubMed

Desikan, Rahul S; Fan, Chun Chieh; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J; Cabral, Howard J; Cupples, L Adrienne; Thompson, Wesley K; Besser, Lilah; Kukull, Walter A; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Brewer, James B; Karow, David S; Kauppi, Karolina; Witoelar, Aree; Karch, Celeste M; Bonham, Luke W; Yokoyama, Jennifer S; Rosen, Howard J; Miller, Bruce L; Dillon, William P; Wilson, David M; Hess, Christopher P; Pericak-Vance, Margaret; Haines, Jonathan L; Farrer, Lindsay A; Mayeux, Richard; Hardy, John; Goate, Alison M; Hyman, Bradley T; Schellenberg, Gerard D; McEvoy, Linda K; Andreassen, Ole A; Dale, Anders M

2017-03-01

Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction. Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP Stage 1), we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10-5). We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC), providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS) for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680). Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62-4.24, p = 1.0 × 10-22). In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10-26) and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran-Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10-10), and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10-6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10-6) and in vivo markers of AD neurodegeneration (ADNI, volume loss within the entorhinal cortex, p = 6.3 × 10-6, and hippocampus, p = 7.9 × 10-5). Additional prospective validation of these results in non-US, non-white, and prospective community-based cohorts is necessary before clinical use. We have developed a PHS for quantifying individual differences in age-specific genetic risk for AD. Within the cohorts studied here, polygenic architecture plays an important role in modifying AD risk beyond APOE. With thorough validation, quantification of inherited genetic variation may prove useful for stratifying AD risk and as an enrichment strategy in therapeutic trials.

Precision phase estimation based on weak-value amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Xiaodong; Xie, Linguo; Liu, Xiong; Luo, Lan; Li, Zhaoxue; Zhang, Zhiyou; Du, Jinglei

2017-02-01

In this letter, we propose a precision method for phase estimation based on the weak-value amplification (WVA) technique using a monochromatic light source. The anomalous WVA significantly suppresses the technical noise with respect to the intensity difference signal induced by the phase delay when the post-selection procedure comes into play. The phase measured precision of this method is proportional to the weak-value of a polarization operator in the experimental range. Our results compete well with the wide spectrum light phase weak measurements and outperform the standard homodyne phase detection technique.

Multi-frequency Phase Unwrap from Noisy Data: Adaptive Least Squares Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katkovnik, Vladimir; Bioucas-Dias, José

2010-04-01

Multiple frequency interferometry is, basically, a phase acquisition strategy aimed at reducing or eliminating the ambiguity of the wrapped phase observations or, equivalently, reducing or eliminating the fringe ambiguity order. In multiple frequency interferometry, the phase measurements are acquired at different frequencies (or wavelengths) and recorded using the corresponding sensors (measurement channels). Assuming that the absolute phase to be reconstructed is piece-wise smooth, we use a nonparametric regression technique for the phase reconstruction. The nonparametric estimates are derived from a local least squares criterion, which, when applied to the multifrequency data, yields denoised (filtered) phase estimates with extended ambiguity (periodized), compared with the phase ambiguities inherent to each measurement frequency. The filtering algorithm is based on local polynomial (LPA) approximation for design of nonlinear filters (estimators) and adaptation of these filters to unknown smoothness of the spatially varying absolute phase [9]. For phase unwrapping, from filtered periodized data, we apply the recently introduced robust (in the sense of discontinuity preserving) PUMA unwrapping algorithm [1]. Simulations give evidence that the proposed algorithm yields state-of-the-art performance for continuous as well as for discontinues phase surfaces, enabling phase unwrapping in extraordinary difficult situations when all other algorithms fail.

An examination of the predictors of blood donors' intentions to donate during two phases of an avian influenza outbreak.

PubMed

Masser, Barbara M; White, Katherine M; Hamilton, Kyra; McKimmie, Blake M

2011-03-01

Data from prior health scares suggest that an avian influenza outbreak will impact on people's intention to donate blood; however, research exploring this is scarce. Using an augmented theory of planned behavior (TPB), incorporating threat perceptions alongside the rational decision-making components of the TPB, the current study sought to identify predictors of blood donors' intentions to donate during two phases of an avian influenza outbreak. Blood donors (n = 172) completed an on-line survey assessing the standard TPB predictors as well as measures of threat perceptions from the health belief model (i.e., perceived susceptibility and severity). Path analyses examined the utility of the augmented TPB to predict donors' intentions to donate during a low- and high-risk phase of an avian influenza outbreak. In both phases, the model provided a good fit to the data explaining 69% (low risk) and 72% (high risk) of the variance in intentions. Attitude, subjective norm, and perceived susceptibility significantly predicted donor intentions in both phases. Within the low-risk phase, sex was an additional significant predictor of intention, while in the high-risk phase, perceived behavioral control was significantly related to intentions. An augmented TPB model can be used to predict donors' intentions to donate blood in a low-risk and a high-risk phase of an outbreak of avian influenza. As such, the results provide important insights into donors' decision-making that can be used by blood agencies to maintain the blood supply in the context of an avian influenza outbreak. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

Radiation Protection Challenges for a Human Mission to Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeitlin, C. J.; Hassler, D.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Schwadron, N.; Spence, H. E.

2015-12-01

A human mission to Mars presents many challenges, not least of which is the radiation exposure that crew members will certainly receive in all phases of the journey, but most critically during the transits to and from Mars. Measurements from the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) aboard the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover, made both in flight and on the surface of Mars, confirm previous estimates that crew members under reasonable shielding would receive a dose equivalent of about 1 Sievert on a 1000-day mission. In standard radiation biology, an acute exposure to 1 Sievert would be expected to increase lifetime fatal cancer risk by about 5%. This is well beyond the currently allowed 3% risk increase limit used by NASA and JAXA. Perhaps more significantly, the nature of exposure in space differs greatly from the terrestrial exposures that lead to the 5% estimate -- in space, the exposure is received at a very low dose rate, and includes a significant component from heavy ions in the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). Acute exposures to Solar Energetic Particles are also possible, but the generally lower energies of SEPs (kinetic energies typically below 100 MeV/nuc) mean that modest amounts of shielding are effective against them. Thus the greater concern for long-duration deep-space missions is the GCR exposure. In this presentation, I will briefly review the MSL-RAD data and discuss current approaches to radiation risk estimation, including the NASA limit of 3% at the 95% confidence level. Recent results from the NASA radiation biology program indicate that cancer may not be the only risk that needs to be considered, with emerging concerns about cardiovascular and central nervous system health. These health effects are not accounted for in the current methodology and could potentially be threatening to mission success if they manifest in the course of the mission, rather than appearing many years after the exposure as radiation-induced cancer typically does.

Air-water exchange of PAHs and OPAHs at a superfund mega-site.

PubMed

Tidwell, Lane G; Blair Paulik, L; Anderson, Kim A

2017-12-15

Chemical fate is a concern at environmentally contaminated sites, but characterizing that fate can be difficult. Identifying and quantifying the movement of chemicals at the air-water interface are important steps in characterizing chemical fate. Superfund sites are often suspected sources of air pollution due to legacy sediment and water contamination. A quantitative assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and oxygenated PAH (OPAHs) diffusive flux in a river system that contains a Superfund Mega-site, and passes through residential, urban and agricultural land, has not been reported before. Here, passive sampling devices (PSDs) were used to measure 60 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 22 oxygenated PAH (OPAHs) in air and water. From these concentrations the magnitude and direction of contaminant flux between these two compartments was calculated. The magnitude of PAH flux was greater at sites near or within the Superfund Mega-site than outside of the Superfund Mega-site. The largest net individual PAH deposition at a single site was naphthalene at a rate of -14,200 (±5780) (ng/m 2 )/day. The estimated one-year total flux of phenanthrene was -7.9×10 5 (ng/m 2 )/year. Human health risk associated with inhalation of vapor phase PAHs and dermal exposure to PAHs in water were assessed by calculating benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations. Excess lifetime cancer risk estimates show potential increased risk associated with exposure to PAHs at sites within and in close proximity to the Superfund Mega-site. Specifically, estimated excess lifetime cancer risk associated with dermal exposure and inhalation of PAHs was above 1 in 1 million within the Superfund Mega-site. The predominant depositional flux profile observed in this study suggests that the river water in this Superfund site is largely a sink for airborne PAHs, rather than a source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectral estimation of received phase in the presence of amplitude scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, V. A.; Brown, D. H.; Hurd, W. J.

1988-01-01

A technique is demonstrated for obtaining the spectral parameters of the received carrier phase in the presence of carrier amplitude scintillation, by means of a digital phased locked loop. Since the random amplitude fluctuations generate time-varying loop characteristics, straightforward processing of the phase detector output does not provide accurate results. The method developed here performs a time-varying inverse filtering operation on the corrupted observables, thus recovering the original phase process and enabling accurate estimation of its underlying parameters.

Older adults at high risk of falling need more time for anticipatory postural adjustment in the precrossing phase of obstacle negotiation.

PubMed

Uemura, Kazuki; Yamada, Minoru; Nagai, Koutatsu; Ichihashi, Noriaki

2011-08-01

Obstacles are a common cause of falls among older adults. Anticipatory motor planning for obstacle negotiation must be completed during the precrossing phase in order to step over the obstacle safely. This cognitive load may affect anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs) in older adults at high risk of falling. This study explored the effect of obstacle negotiation on APA during gait initiation in older adults at high risk of falling. Seventy-six elderly volunteers (mean age: 80.5 [7.6 years]) from the community participated in this study. Participants performed gait initiation tasks from a starting position on a force platform under the following two conditions: (1) unobstructed (smooth walkway) and (2) obstructed (walkway with an obstacle placed at 1 m from the initial position). The reaction and APA phases were measured from the data of center of pressure. Each participant was categorized as a high-risk or a low-risk individual according to the presence or absence of a fall experience within the past year. High-risk participants had significantly longer APA phases than low-risk participants under the obstructed condition even though there was no significant difference between groups under the unobstructed condition. Reaction phase was not significantly different between groups in either the unobstructed or the obstructed condition. Motor performance deterioration occurred in high-risk participants in the beginning of the precrossing phase of obstacle negotiation. A slow and inefficient APA at the precrossing phase of obstacle negotiation might be one of the causes of accidental falls.

Estimating the lifetime risk of cancer associated with multiple CT scans.

PubMed

Ivanov, V K; Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Menyaylo, A N; Pryakhin, E A; Tsyb, A F; Mettler, F A

2014-12-01

Multiple CT scans are often done on the same patient resulting in an increased risk of cancer. Prior publications have estimated risks on a population basis and often using an effective dose. Simply adding up the risks from single scans does not correctly account for the survival function. A methodology for estimating personal radiation risks attributed to multiple CT imaging using organ doses is presented in this article. The estimated magnitude of the attributable risk fraction for the possible development of radiation-induced cancer indicates the necessity for strong clinical justification when ordering multiple CT scans.

Examining the effects of air pollution composition on within region differences in PM2.5 mortality risk estimates

EPA Science Inventory

Multi-city population-based epidemiological studies have observed significant heterogeneity in both the magnitude and direction of city-specific risk estimates, but tended to focus on regional differences in PM2.5 mortality risk estimates. Interpreting differences in risk estimat...

Stock market speculation: Spontaneous symmetry breaking of economic valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier

2000-09-01

Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bounded rationality, agent-based modeling and evolutionary game theory, expound that speculative and crowd behavior of investors may play a major role in shaping market prices. Here, we propose that the two views refer to two classes of companies connected through a "phase transition". Our theory is based on (1) the identification of the fundamental parity symmetry of prices (p→-p), which results from the relative direction of payment flux compared to commodity flux and (2) the observation that a company's risk-adjusted growth rate discounted by the market interest rate behaves as a control parameter for the observable price. We find a critical value of this control parameter at which a spontaneous symmetry-breaking of prices occurs, leading to a spontaneous valuation in absence of earnings, similarly to the emergence of a spontaneous magnetization in Ising models in absence of a magnetic field. The low growth rate phase is described by the firm foundation theory while the large growth rate phase is the regime of speculation and crowd behavior. In practice, while large "finite-time horizon" effects round off the predicted singularities, our symmetry-breaking speculation theory accounts for the apparent over-pricing and the high volatility of fast growing companies on the stock markets.

Digital Detection and Processing of Multiple Quadrature Harmonics for EPR Spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Ahmad, R.; Som, S.; Kesselring, E.; Kuppusamy, P.; Zweier, J.L.; Potter, L.C.

2010-01-01

A quadrature digital receiver and associated signal estimation procedure are reported for L-band electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy. The approach provides simultaneous acquisition and joint processing of multiple harmonics in both in-phase and out-of-phase channels. The digital receiver, based on a high-speed dual-channel analog-to-digital converter, allows direct digital down-conversion with heterodyne processing using digital capture of the microwave reference signal. Thus, the receiver avoids noise and nonlinearity associated with analog mixers. Also, the architecture allows for low-Q anti-alias filtering and does not require the sampling frequency to be time-locked to the microwave reference. A noise model applicable for arbitrary contributions of oscillator phase noise is presented, and a corresponding maximum-likelihood estimator of unknown parameters is also reported. The signal processing is applicable for Lorentzian lineshape under nonsaturating conditions. The estimation is carried out using a convergent iterative algorithm capable of jointly processing the in-phase and out-of-phase data in the presence of phase noise and unknown microwave phase. Cramér-Rao bound analysis and simulation results demonstrate a significant reduction in linewidth estimation error using quadrature detection, for both low and high values of phase noise. EPR spectroscopic data are also reported for illustration. PMID:20971667

Digital detection and processing of multiple quadrature harmonics for EPR spectroscopy.

PubMed

Ahmad, R; Som, S; Kesselring, E; Kuppusamy, P; Zweier, J L; Potter, L C

2010-12-01

A quadrature digital receiver and associated signal estimation procedure are reported for L-band electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy. The approach provides simultaneous acquisition and joint processing of multiple harmonics in both in-phase and out-of-phase channels. The digital receiver, based on a high-speed dual-channel analog-to-digital converter, allows direct digital down-conversion with heterodyne processing using digital capture of the microwave reference signal. Thus, the receiver avoids noise and nonlinearity associated with analog mixers. Also, the architecture allows for low-Q anti-alias filtering and does not require the sampling frequency to be time-locked to the microwave reference. A noise model applicable for arbitrary contributions of oscillator phase noise is presented, and a corresponding maximum-likelihood estimator of unknown parameters is also reported. The signal processing is applicable for Lorentzian lineshape under nonsaturating conditions. The estimation is carried out using a convergent iterative algorithm capable of jointly processing the in-phase and out-of-phase data in the presence of phase noise and unknown microwave phase. Cramér-Rao bound analysis and simulation results demonstrate a significant reduction in linewidth estimation error using quadrature detection, for both low and high values of phase noise. EPR spectroscopic data are also reported for illustration. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

1984-05-01

Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based onmore » this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.« less

Iterative-Transform Phase Retrieval Using Adaptive Diversity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Bruce H.

2007-01-01

A phase-diverse iterative-transform phase-retrieval algorithm enables high spatial-frequency, high-dynamic-range, image-based wavefront sensing. [The terms phase-diverse, phase retrieval, image-based, and wavefront sensing are defined in the first of the two immediately preceding articles, Broadband Phase Retrieval for Image-Based Wavefront Sensing (GSC-14899-1).] As described below, no prior phase-retrieval algorithm has offered both high dynamic range and the capability to recover high spatial-frequency components. Each of the previously developed image-based phase-retrieval techniques can be classified into one of two categories: iterative transform or parametric. Among the modifications of the original iterative-transform approach has been the introduction of a defocus diversity function (also defined in the cited companion article). Modifications of the original parametric approach have included minimizing alternative objective functions as well as implementing a variety of nonlinear optimization methods. The iterative-transform approach offers the advantage of ability to recover low, middle, and high spatial frequencies, but has disadvantage of having a limited dynamic range to one wavelength or less. In contrast, parametric phase retrieval offers the advantage of high dynamic range, but is poorly suited for recovering higher spatial frequency aberrations. The present phase-diverse iterative transform phase-retrieval algorithm offers both the high-spatial-frequency capability of the iterative-transform approach and the high dynamic range of parametric phase-recovery techniques. In implementation, this is a focus-diverse iterative-transform phaseretrieval algorithm that incorporates an adaptive diversity function, which makes it possible to avoid phase unwrapping while preserving high-spatial-frequency recovery. The algorithm includes an inner and an outer loop (see figure). An initial estimate of phase is used to start the algorithm on the inner loop, wherein multiple intensity images are processed, each using a different defocus value. The processing is done by an iterative-transform method, yielding individual phase estimates corresponding to each image of the defocus-diversity data set. These individual phase estimates are combined in a weighted average to form a new phase estimate, which serves as the initial phase estimate for either the next iteration of the iterative-transform method or, if the maximum number of iterations has been reached, for the next several steps, which constitute the outerloop portion of the algorithm. The details of the next several steps must be omitted here for the sake of brevity. The overall effect of these steps is to adaptively update the diversity defocus values according to recovery of global defocus in the phase estimate. Aberration recovery varies with differing amounts as the amount of diversity defocus is updated in each image; thus, feedback is incorporated into the recovery process. This process is iterated until the global defocus error is driven to zero during the recovery process. The amplitude of aberration may far exceed one wavelength after completion of the inner-loop portion of the algorithm, and the classical iterative transform method does not, by itself, enable recovery of multi-wavelength aberrations. Hence, in the absence of a means of off-loading the multi-wavelength portion of the aberration, the algorithm would produce a wrapped phase map. However, a special aberration-fitting procedure can be applied to the wrapped phase data to transfer at least some portion of the multi-wavelength aberration to the diversity function, wherein the data are treated as known phase values. In this way, a multiwavelength aberration can be recovered incrementally by successively applying the aberration-fitting procedure to intermediate wrapped phase maps. During recovery, as more of the aberration is transferred to the diversity function following successive iterations around the ter loop, the estimated phase ceases to wrap in places where the aberration values become incorporated as part of the diversity function. As a result, as the aberration content is transferred to the diversity function, the phase estimate resembles that of a reference flat.

Perimenopausal and Postmenopausal Health

PubMed Central

Cheung, Angela M; Chaudhry, Ruhee; Kapral, Moira; Jackevicius, Cynthia; Robinson, Gail

2004-01-01

Health Issue The average age of natural menopause in Western societies is estimated to be 51 years; women in Canada can therefore expect to live, on average, a third of their lives in post-menopausal years. During these years women are at increased risk of chronic diseases such as osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease. Key Findings Clinical and epidemiological data on women in perimenopause are limited. There are no adequate Canadian data on symptom severity and prevalence among perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. Scientific evidence is lacking to support or refute claims that commonly used botanical products can offer therapeutic relief of menopausal symptoms. Recent data from the Women's Health Initiative suggest that combined estrogen plus therapy increases the risk of stroke, coronary artery disease and breast cancer. Hormone therapy is no longer recommended for the prevention of chronic diseases for asymptomatic women. Stroke is an important issue for perimenopausal and postmenopausal women and sex differences may exist in the progestin treatment of stroke. Osteoporosis affects an estimated one in six women over the age of 50. Data Gaps and Recommendations There is a need to conduct clinical and epidemiological research aimed at better understanding the menopausal transition and defining its clinical phases. Investigations aimed at alternative combinations and doses of hormone therapy and non-pharmaceutical alternatives in light of known risks and benefits are also necessary. Health care practitioners and women need to be educated on the risks and effective treatment related to cardiovascular disease so they can present for treatment more quickly and receive the most effective therapies. PMID:15345086

Macroscopic Hematuria After Conventional or Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy: Results From a Prospective Phase 3 Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanguineti, Giuseppe, E-mail: sanguineti@ifo.it; Arcidiacono, Fabio; Landoni, Valeria

2016-10-01

Purpose: To assess the macroscopic hematuria rates within a single-institution randomized phase 3 trial comparing dose-escalated, conventionally fractionated radiation therapy (CFRT) and moderately hypofractionated radiation therapy (MHRT) for localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Patients with intermediate- to high-risk localized prostate cancer were treated with conformal RT and short-course androgen deprivation. Both the prostate and the entire seminal vesicles were treated to 80 Gy in 40 fractions over 8 weeks (CFRT) or 62 Gy in 20 fractions over 5 weeks (MHRT). The endpoint of the present study was the development of any episode or grade of macroscopic hematuria. The median follow-up period was 93 monthsmore » (range 6-143). Results: Macroscopic hematuria was reported by 25 of 168 patients (14.9%). The actuarial estimate of hematuria at 8 years was 17.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7%-23.3%). The number of patients with hematuria was 6 and 19 in the CFRT and MHRT arms, respectively, for an actuarial 8-year estimate of 9.7% and 24.3%, respectively (hazard ratio 3.468, 95% CI 1.385-8.684; P=.008). Overall, 8 of 25 patients were found to have biopsy-proven urothelial carcinoma (3 in the CFRT arm and 5 in the MHRT arm; P=.27). Thus, the 8-year actuarial incidence of macroscopic hematuria (after censoring urothelial cancer–related episodes) was 4.1% and 18.2% after CFRT and MHRT, respectively (hazard ratio 4.961, 95% CI 1.426-17.263; P=.012). The results were confirmed by multivariate analysis after accounting for several patient-, treatment-, and tumor-related covariates. Conclusions: MHRT was associated with a statistically significant increased risk of macroscopic hematuria compared with CFRT.« less

Nutritional predictors of mortality after discharge in elderly patients on a medical ward.

PubMed

Buscemi, Silvio; Batsis, John A; Parrinello, Gaspare; Massenti, Fatima M; Rosafio, Giuseppe; Sciascia, Vittoria; Costa, Flavia; Pollina Addario, Sebastiano; Mendola, Serena; Barile, Anna M; Maniaci, Vincenza; Rini, Nadia; Caimi, Gregorio

2016-07-01

Malnutrition in elderly inpatients hospitalized on medical wards is a significant public health concern. The aim of this study was to investigate nutritional markers as mortality predictors following discharge in hospitalized medical elderly patients. This is a prospective observational cohort study with follow-up of 48 months. Two hundred and twenty-five individuals aged 60 and older admitted from the hospital emergency room in the past 48 h were investigated at the medical ward in the University hospital in Palermo (Italy). Anthropometric and clinical measurements, Mini-nutritional Assessment (MNA) questionnaire, bioelectrical (BIA) phase angle (PA), grip strength were obtained all within 48 h of admission. Mortality data were verified by means of mortality registry and analysed using Cox-proportional hazard models. Ninety (40%) participants died at the end of follow-up. There were significant relationships between PA, MNA score, age and gender on mortality. Patients in the lowest tertile of PA (< 4·6°) had higher mortality estimates [I vs II tertile: hazard ratio (HR) = 3·40; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2·01-5·77; II vs III tertile: HR = 3·83; 95% CI: 2·21-6·64; log-rank test: χ(2) = 43·6; P < 0·001]. Similarly, the survival curves demonstrated low MNA scores (< 22) were associated with higher mortality estimates (HR = 1·85; 95% CI: 1·22-2·81 χ(2) = 8·2; P = 0·004). The MNA and BIA-derived phase angle are reasonable tools to identify malnourished patients at high mortality risk and may represent useful markers in intervention trials in this high-risk subgroup. © 2016 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Is objective and accurate cognitive assessment across the menstrual cycle possible? A feasibility study

PubMed Central

Neill, Jo; Scally, Andy; Tuffnell, Derek; Marshall, Kay

2015-01-01

Objectives: Variation in plasma hormone levels influences the neurobiology of brain regions involved in cognition and emotion processing. Fluctuations in hormone levels across the menstrual cycle could therefore alter cognitive performance and wellbeing; reports have provided conflicting results, however. The aim of this study was to assess whether objective assessment of cognitive performance and self-reported wellbeing during the follicular and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle is feasible and investigate the possible reasons for variation in effects previously reported. Methods: The Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery and Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale were used to assess the cognitive performance and wellbeing of 12 women. Data were analysed by self-reported and hormone-estimated phases of the menstrual cycle. Results: Recruitment to the study and assessment of cognition and wellbeing was without issue. Plasma hormone and peptide estimation showed substantial individual variation and suggests inaccuracy in self-reported menstrual phase estimation. Conclusion: Objective assessment of cognitive performance and self-assessed wellbeing across the menstrual cycle is feasible. Grouping data by hormonal profile rather by self-reported phase estimation may influence phase-mediated results. Future studies should use plasma hormone and peptide profiles to estimate cycle phase and group data for analyses. PMID:26770760

Impact of UKPDS risk estimation added to a first subjective risk estimation on management of coronary disease risk in type 2 diabetes - An observational study.

PubMed

Wind, Anne E; Gorter, Kees J; van den Donk, Maureen; Rutten, Guy E H M

2016-02-01

To investigate the impact of the UKPDS risk engine on management of CHD risk in T2DM patients. Observational study among 139 GPs. Data from 933 consecutive patients treated with a maximum of two oral glucose lowering drugs, collected at baseline and after twelve months. GPs estimated the CHD risk themselves and afterwards they calculated this with the UKPDS risk engine. Under- and overestimation were defined as a difference >5 percentage points difference between both calculations. The impact of the UKPDS risk engine was assessed by measuring differences in medication adjustments between the over-, under- and accurately estimated group. In 42.0% the GP accurately estimated the CHD risk, in 32.4% the risk was underestimated and in 25.6% overestimated. Mean difference between the estimated (18.7%) and calculated (19.1%) 10 years CHD risk was -0.36% (95% CI -1.24 to 0.52). Male gender, current smoking and total cholesterol level were associated with underestimation. Patients with an subjectively underestimated CHD risk received significantly more medication adjustments. Their UKPDS 10 year CHD risk did not increase during the follow-up period, contrary to the other two groups of patients. The UKPDS risk engine may be of added value for risk management in T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Talker Localization Based on Interference between Transmitted and Reflected Audible Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Masato; Nakasako, Noboru; Shinohara, Toshihiro; Uebo, Tetsuji

In many engineering fields, distance to targets is very important. General distance measurement method uses a time delay between transmitted and reflected waves, but it is difficult to estimate the short distance. On the other hand, the method using phase interference to measure the short distance has been known in the field of microwave radar. Therefore, we have proposed the distance estimation method based on interference between transmitted and reflected audible sound, which can measure the distance between microphone and target with one microphone and one loudspeaker. In this paper, we propose talker localization method based on distance estimation using phase interference. We expand the distance estimation method using phase interference into two microphones (microphone array) in order to estimate talker position. The proposed method can estimate talker position by measuring the distance and direction between target and microphone array. In addition, talker's speech is regarded as a noise in the proposed method. Therefore, we also propose combination of the proposed method and CSP (Cross-power Spectrum Phase analysis) method which is one of the DOA (Direction Of Arrival) estimation methods. We evaluated the performance of talker localization in real environments. The experimental result shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Estimating the Value-at-Risk for some stocks at the capital market in Indonesia based on ARMA-FIGARCH models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Lesmana, E.; Susanti, D.; Napitupulu, H.; Hidayat, Y.

2017-11-01

Value-at-Risk has already become a standard measurement that must be carried out by the financial institution for both internal interest and regulatory. In this paper, the estimation of Value-at-Risk of some stocks with econometric models approach is analyzed. In this research, we assume that the stock return follows the time series model. To do the estimation of mean value we are using ARMA models, while to estimate the variance value we are using FIGARCH models. Furthermore, the mean value estimator and the variance are used to estimate the Value-at-Risk. The result of the analysis shows that from five stock PRUF, BBRI, MPPA, BMRI, and INDF, the Value-at-Risk obtained are 0.01791, 0.06037, 0.02550, 0.06030, and 0.02585 respectively. Since Value-at-Risk represents the maximum risk size of each stock at a 95% level of significance, then it can be taken into consideration in determining the investment policy on stocks.

A New Approach to Estimate Forest Parameters Using Dual-Baseline Pol-InSAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, L.; Hong, W.; Cao, F.; Zhou, Y.

2009-04-01

In POL-InSAR applications using ESPRIT technique, it is assumed that there exist stable scattering centres in the forest. However, the observations in forest severely suffer from volume and temporal decorrelation. The forest scatters are not stable as assumed. The obtained interferometric information is not accurate as expected. Besides, ESPRIT techniques could not identify the interferometric phases corresponding to the ground and the canopy. It provides multiple estimations for the height between two scattering centers due to phase unwrapping. Therefore, estimation errors are introduced to the forest height results. To suppress the two types of errors, we use the dual-baseline POL-InSAR data to estimate forest height. Dual-baseline coherence optimization is applied to obtain interferometric information of stable scattering centers in the forest. From the interferometric phases for different baselines, estimation errors caused by phase unwrapping is solved. Other estimation errors can be suppressed, too. Experiments are done to the ESAR L band POL-InSAR data. Experimental results show the proposed methods provide more accurate forest height than ESPRIT technique.

Urinary stone risk and cola consumption.

PubMed

Herrel, Lindsey; Pattaras, John; Solomon, Tania; Ogan, Kenneth

2012-11-01

To evaluate the effect of cola consumption on urinary stone risk factors in a controlled metabolic environment with a prospective cross-over study. Thirteen participants (10 normal and 3 calcium oxalate stone-formers) underwent 2 6-day phases on a controlled metabolic diet. During phase 1, subjects ingested 1 liter of cola daily, followed by a 3-week washout period. During phase 2, subjects ingested 1 liter of deionized water daily. Twenty-four-hour urine collections and serum metabolic panels were obtained for stone risk factors at the end of each phase. Urine and serum results of the cola phase were compared with those of the water phase. Normal subjects and stone-formers were combined for analysis after determining no significant difference between the 2 groups. No significant differences were found among cola and water treatment groups for normal subjects, stone-formers, or the pooled group. Cola exerts no detectable change in urinary risk factors associated with calcium oxalate stone formation. Cola consumption may not increase stone risk and may be an acceptable alternative source of daily fluid for patients unwilling to increase water consumption. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The 2006 William Feinberg lecture: shifting the paradigm from stroke to global vascular risk estimation.

PubMed

Sacco, Ralph L

2007-06-01

By the year 2010, it is estimated that 18.1 million people worldwide will die annually because of cardiovascular diseases and stroke. "Global vascular risk" more broadly includes the multiple overlapping disease silos of stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and vascular death. Estimation of global vascular risk requires consideration of a variety of variables including demographics, environmental behaviors, and risk factors. Data from multiple studies suggest continuous linear relationships between the physiological vascular risk modulators of blood pressure, lipids, and blood glucose rather than treating these conditions as categorical risk factors. Constellations of risk factors may be more relevant than individual categorical components. Exciting work with novel risk factors may also have predictive value in estimates of global vascular risk. Advances in imaging have led to the measurement of subclinical conditions such as carotid intima-media thickness and subclinical brain conditions such as white matter hyperintensities and silent infarcts. These subclinical measurements may be intermediate stages in the transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic vascular events, appear to be associated with the fundamental vascular risk factors, and represent opportunities to more precisely quantitate disease progression. The expansion of studies in molecular epidemiology and detection of genetic markers underlying vascular risks also promises to extend our precision of global vascular risk estimation. Global vascular risk estimation will require quantitative methods that bundle these multi-dimensional data into more precise estimates of future risk. The power of genetic information coupled with data on demographics, risk-inducing behaviors, vascular risk modulators, biomarkers, and measures of subclinical conditions should provide the most realistic approximation of an individual's future global vascular risk. The ultimate public health benefit, however, will depend on not only identification of global vascular risk but also the realization that we can modify this risk and prove the prediction models wrong.

Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

PubMed

Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

2017-09-06

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its shortcomings, and so further research is needed to identify optimal approaches for relative risk estimation within the multiple imputation framework.

Polarimetric image reconstruction algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, John R.

In the field of imaging polarimetry Stokes parameters are sought and must be inferred from noisy and blurred intensity measurements. Using a penalized-likelihood estimation framework we investigate reconstruction quality when estimating intensity images and then transforming to Stokes parameters (traditional estimator), and when estimating Stokes parameters directly (Stokes estimator). We define our cost function for reconstruction by a weighted least squares data fit term and a regularization penalty. It is shown that under quadratic regularization, the traditional and Stokes estimators can be made equal by appropriate choice of regularization parameters. It is empirically shown that, when using edge preserving regularization, estimating the Stokes parameters directly leads to lower RMS error in reconstruction. Also, the addition of a cross channel regularization term further lowers the RMS error for both methods especially in the case of low SNR. The technique of phase diversity has been used in traditional incoherent imaging systems to jointly estimate an object and optical system aberrations. We extend the technique of phase diversity to polarimetric imaging systems. Specifically, we describe penalized-likelihood methods for jointly estimating Stokes images and optical system aberrations from measurements that contain phase diversity. Jointly estimating Stokes images and optical system aberrations involves a large parameter space. A closed-form expression for the estimate of the Stokes images in terms of the aberration parameters is derived and used in a formulation that reduces the dimensionality of the search space to the number of aberration parameters only. We compare the performance of the joint estimator under both quadratic and edge-preserving regularization. The joint estimator with edge-preserving regularization yields higher fidelity polarization estimates than with quadratic regularization. Under quadratic regularization, using the reduced-parameter search strategy, accurate aberration estimates can be obtained without recourse to regularization "tuning". Phase-diverse wavefront sensing is emerging as a viable candidate wavefront sensor for adaptive-optics systems. In a quadratically penalized weighted least squares estimation framework a closed form expression for the object being imaged in terms of the aberrations in the system is available. This expression offers a dramatic reduction of the dimensionality of the estimation problem and thus is of great interest for practical applications. We have derived an expression for an approximate joint covariance matrix for object and aberrations in the phase diversity context. Our expression for the approximate joint covariance is compared with the "known-object" Cramer-Rao lower bound that is typically used for system parameter optimization. Estimates of the optimal amount of defocus in a phase-diverse wavefront sensor derived from the joint-covariance matrix, the known-object Cramer-Rao bound, and Monte Carlo simulations are compared for an extended scene and a point object. It is found that our variance approximation, that incorporates the uncertainty of the object, leads to an improvement in predicting the optimal amount of defocus to use in a phase-diverse wavefront sensor.

Coherent multiscale image processing using dual-tree quaternion wavelets.

PubMed

Chan, Wai Lam; Choi, Hyeokho; Baraniuk, Richard G

2008-07-01

The dual-tree quaternion wavelet transform (QWT) is a new multiscale analysis tool for geometric image features. The QWT is a near shift-invariant tight frame representation whose coefficients sport a magnitude and three phases: two phases encode local image shifts while the third contains image texture information. The QWT is based on an alternative theory for the 2-D Hilbert transform and can be computed using a dual-tree filter bank with linear computational complexity. To demonstrate the properties of the QWT's coherent magnitude/phase representation, we develop an efficient and accurate procedure for estimating the local geometrical structure of an image. We also develop a new multiscale algorithm for estimating the disparity between a pair of images that is promising for image registration and flow estimation applications. The algorithm features multiscale phase unwrapping, linear complexity, and sub-pixel estimation accuracy.

Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean.

PubMed

Oei, W; Lieshout-Krikke, R W; Kretzschmar, M E; Zaaijer, H L; Coutinho, R A; Eersel, M; Jubithana, B; Halabi, Y; Gerstenbluth, I; Maduro, E; Tromp, M; Janssen, M P

2016-05-01

The risk of dengue transmitted by travellers is known. Methods to estimate the transmission by transfusion (TT) risk from blood donors travelling to risk areas are available, for instance, the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT). This study aimed to validate the estimated risk from travelling donors obtained from EUFRAT. Surveillance data on notified dengue cases in Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands (Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba) in 2001-2011 was used to calculate local incidence rates. Information on travel and donation behaviour of Dutch donors was collected. With the EUFRAT model, the TT risks from Dutch travelling donors were calculated. Model estimates were compared with the number of infections in Dutch travellers found by laboratory tests in the Netherlands. The expected cumulative number of donors becoming infected during travels to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean from 2001 to 2011 was estimated at 5 (95% CI, 2-11) and 86 (45-179), respectively. The infection risk inferred from the laboratory-based study was 19 (9-61) and 28 (14-92). Given the independence of the data sources, these estimates are remarkably close. The model estimated that 0·02 (0·001-0·06) and 0·40 (0·01-1·4) recipients would have been infected by these travelling donors. The EUFRAT model provided an estimate close to actual observed number of dengue infections. The dengue TT risk among Dutch travelling donors can be estimated using basic transmission, travel and donation information. The TT risk from Dutch donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean is small. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Quality of wet deposition in the Grand Calumet River watershed, northwestern Indiana, April 29, 1997-April 28, 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willoughby, Timothy C.

2000-01-01

The Grand Calumet River, in northwestern Indiana, drains a heavily industrialized area along the southern shore of Lake Michigan. Steel production and petroleum refining are two of the area?s predominant industries. High-temperature processes, such as fossilfuel combustion and steel production, release contaminants to the atmosphere that may result in wet deposition being a major contributor to major-ion and trace-metal loadings in northwestern Indiana and Lake Michigan. A wet-deposition collection site was established at the Gary (Indiana) Regional Airport to monitor the quantity and chemical quality of wet deposition. During a first phase of sampling, 48 wet-deposition samples were collected weekly between June 30, 1992, and August 31, 1993. During a second phase of sampling, 40 wet-deposition samples were collected between October 17, 1995, and November 12, 1996. Forty-two wet-deposition samples were collected during a third phase of sampling, which began April 29, 1997, and was completed April 28, 1998. Wetdeposition samples were analyzed for pH, specific conductance, and selected major ions and trace metals. This report describes the quantity and quality of wet-deposition samples collected during the third sampling phase and compares these findings to the results of the first and second sampling phases. All of the samples collected during the third phase of sampling were of sufficient volumes for at least some of the analyses to be performed. Constituent concentrations from the third sampling phase were not significantly different (at the 5-percent significance level) from those for the second sampling phase. Significant increases, however, were observed in the concentrations of potassium, iron, lead, and zinc when compared to the concentrations observed in the first sampling phase. Weekly loadings were estimated for each constituent measured during the third sampling phase. If constituent concentrations were reported less than the method reporting limit, a range for the weekly loading was computed. The estimated annual loadings of chloride, silica, bromide, copper, and zinc during the third sampling phase were greater than those estimated for the first two sampling phases. The only estimated annual loading in the third sampling phase that was less than the estimated annual loadings observed during the first two sampling phases was sulfate. The estimated annual loadings of calcium, magnesium, nitrate, potassium, barium, lead, iron, and manganese observed during the third sampling phase were greater than the loadings observed during the first sampling phase but less than those observed during the second sampling phase. No significant differences were observed between the quantity of wet deposition collected during the three sampling phases.

Estimating phase synchronization in dynamical systems using cellular nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sowa, Robert; Chernihovskyi, Anton; Mormann, Florian; Lehnertz, Klaus

2005-06-01

We propose a method for estimating phase synchronization between time series using the parallel computing architecture of cellular nonlinear networks (CNN’s). Applying this method to time series of coupled nonlinear model systems and to electroencephalographic time series from epilepsy patients, we show that an accurate approximation of the mean phase coherence R —a bivariate measure for phase synchronization—can be achieved with CNN’s using polynomial-type templates.

Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

2018-04-01

The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

Motion-induced phase error estimation and correction in 3D diffusion tensor imaging.

PubMed

Van, Anh T; Hernando, Diego; Sutton, Bradley P

2011-11-01

A multishot data acquisition strategy is one way to mitigate B0 distortion and T2∗ blurring for high-resolution diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging experiments. However, different object motions that take place during different shots cause phase inconsistencies in the data, leading to significant image artifacts. This work proposes a maximum likelihood estimation and k-space correction of motion-induced phase errors in 3D multishot diffusion tensor imaging. The proposed error estimation is robust, unbiased, and approaches the Cramer-Rao lower bound. For rigid body motion, the proposed correction effectively removes motion-induced phase errors regardless of the k-space trajectory used and gives comparable performance to the more computationally expensive 3D iterative nonlinear phase error correction method. The method has been extended to handle multichannel data collected using phased-array coils. Simulation and in vivo data are shown to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate the number of annual excess deaths attributable to increased summer temperatures. Warmer average temperatures are expected to cause 173 additional deaths due to cardiovascular stress, while higher minimum temperatures will cause 67 additional deaths. This work particularly improves on the spatial resolution of published analyses of heat-related mortality in the US.

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, J.S.; Chen, J.J.

1999-12-01

The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on anmore » underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. IN this paper the authors evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some of all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.« less

Estimation of the Standardized Risk Difference and Ratio in a Competing Risks Framework: Application to Injection Drug Use and Progression to AIDS After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.; Cole, Stephen R.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.

2015-01-01

There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. PMID:24966220

Hypothesis tests for stratified mark-specific proportional hazards models with missing covariates, with application to HIV vaccine efficacy trials.

PubMed

Sun, Yanqing; Qi, Li; Yang, Guangren; Gilbert, Peter B

2018-05-01

This article develops hypothesis testing procedures for the stratified mark-specific proportional hazards model with missing covariates where the baseline functions may vary with strata. The mark-specific proportional hazards model has been studied to evaluate mark-specific relative risks where the mark is the genetic distance of an infecting HIV sequence to an HIV sequence represented inside the vaccine. This research is motivated by analyzing the RV144 phase 3 HIV vaccine efficacy trial, to understand associations of immune response biomarkers on the mark-specific hazard of HIV infection, where the biomarkers are sampled via a two-phase sampling nested case-control design. We test whether the mark-specific relative risks are unity and how they change with the mark. The developed procedures enable assessment of whether risk of HIV infection with HIV variants close or far from the vaccine sequence are modified by immune responses induced by the HIV vaccine; this question is interesting because vaccine protection occurs through immune responses directed at specific HIV sequences. The test statistics are constructed based on augmented inverse probability weighted complete-case estimators. The asymptotic properties and finite-sample performances of the testing procedures are investigated, demonstrating double-robustness and effectiveness of the predictive auxiliaries to recover efficiency. The finite-sample performance of the proposed tests are examined through a comprehensive simulation study. The methods are applied to the RV144 trial. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A phase 2 trial of high dose lenalidomide in patients with relapsed/refractory higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes and acute myeloid leukaemia with trilineage dysplasia.

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Smith, B Douglas; Carraway, Hetty E; Gojo, Ivana; DeZern, Amy; Gore, Steven D

2017-01-01

Limited therapies exist for patients with refractory and relapsed (RR) higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (HR-MDS) and acute myeloid leukaemia with trilineage dysplasia (AML-TD). High dose (HD) lenalidomide (50 mg) has activity as frontline therapy in elderly AML but there is limited data in the RR setting. This phase II trial included patients with RR HR-MDS or AML-TD at 2 doses of lenalidomide (15 or 50 mg) on days 1-28 of 42-day cycles. The primary endpoint was response rate using the 2006 International Working Group criteria. Overall survival (OS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. Of 27 patients enrolled, 59% had HR-MDS and 31% AML-TD. No patient had isolated del5q; 41% had poor-risk karyotype. Of 9 patients treated at 15 mg, 56% completed ≥2 cycles with no responses. Of 18 patients treated at 50 mg, 39% completed ≥2 cycles and 11% responded but all experienced grade 3/4 neutropenic fever/infection. The 60-day mortality rate was 30%. Median OS was 114 days with 19% surviving ≥1 year. The study was terminated due to lack of robust clinical activity. In conclusion, lenalidomide at 15 mg is ineffective in RR myeloid malignancies. Continous high dosing schedules are poorly tolerated and minimally active. Further evaluation should be considered in upfront intensive chemotherapy-ineligible patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Phase 2 Trial of Radiation Therapy With Concurrent Paclitaxel Chemotherapy After Surgery in Patients With High-Risk Endometrial Cancer: A Korean Gynecologic Oncologic Group Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, Hanbyoul; Institute of Women's Life Medical Science, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul; Nam, Byung-Ho

2014-09-01

Purpose: A phase 2 study was completed by the Korean Gynecologic Oncologic Group to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of concurrent chemoradiation with weekly paclitaxel in patients with high-risk endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials: Pathologic requirements included endometrial endometrioid adenocarcinoma stages III and IV. Radiation therapy consisted of a total dose of 4500 to 5040 cGy in 5 fractions per week for 6 weeks. Paclitaxel 60 mg/m{sup 2} was administered once weekly for 5 weeks during radiation therapy. Results: Fifty-seven patients were enrolled between January 2006 and March 2008. The median follow-up time was 60.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.0-58.2). All grade 3/4 toxicitiesmore » were hematologic and usually self-limited. There was no life-threatening toxicity. The cumulative incidence of intrapelvic recurrence sites was 1.9% (1/52), and the cumulative incidence of extrapelvic recurrence sites was 34.6% (18/52). The estimated 5-year disease-free and overall survival rates were 63.5% (95% CI, 50.4-76.5) and 82.7% (95% CI, 72.4-92.9), respectively. Conclusions: Concurrent chemoradiation with weekly paclitaxel is well tolerated and seems to be effective for high-risk endometrioid endometrial cancers. This approach appears reasonable to be tested for efficacy in a prospective, randomized controlled study.« less

12 CFR 324.131 - Mechanics for calculating total wholesale and retail risk-weighted assets.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... amount in four distinct phases: (1) Phase 1—categorization of exposures; (2) Phase 2—assignment of...—calculation of risk-weighted asset amounts. (b) Phase 1—Categorization. The FDIC-supervised institution must... segments—(1) Assignment of wholesale obligors and exposures to rating grades. (i) The FDIC-supervised...

12 CFR 217.131 - Mechanics for calculating total wholesale and retail risk-weighted assets.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... amount in four distinct phases: (1) Phase 1—categorization of exposures; (2) Phase 2—assignment of...—calculation of risk-weighted asset amounts. (b) Phase 1—Categorization. The Board-regulated institution must... rating grades and retail exposures to segments—(1) Assignment of wholesale obligors and exposures to...

Stratifying empiric risk of schizophrenia among first degree relatives using multiple predictors in two independent Indian samples.

PubMed

Bhatia, Triptish; Gettig, Elizabeth A; Gottesman, Irving I; Berliner, Jonathan; Mishra, N N; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L; Deshpande, Smita N

2016-12-01

Schizophrenia (SZ) has an estimated heritability of 64-88%, with the higher values based on twin studies. Conventionally, family history of psychosis is the best individual-level predictor of risk, but reliable risk estimates are unavailable for Indian populations. Genetic, environmental, and epigenetic factors are equally important and should be considered when predicting risk in 'at risk' individuals. To estimate risk based on an Indian schizophrenia participant's family history combined with selected demographic factors. To incorporate variables in addition to family history, and to stratify risk, we constructed a regression equation that included demographic variables in addition to family history. The equation was tested in two independent Indian samples: (i) an initial sample of SZ participants (N=128) with one sibling or offspring; (ii) a second, independent sample consisting of multiply affected families (N=138 families, with two or more sibs/offspring affected with SZ). The overall estimated risk was 4.31±0.27 (mean±standard deviation). There were 19 (14.8%) individuals in the high risk group, 75 (58.6%) in the moderate risk and 34 (26.6%) in the above average risk (in Sample A). In the validation sample, risks were distributed as: high (45%), moderate (38%) and above average (17%). Consistent risk estimates were obtained from both samples using the regression equation. Familial risk can be combined with demographic factors to estimate risk for SZ in India. If replicated, the proposed stratification of risk may be easier and more realistic for family members. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Thermodynamic properties of selected uranium compounds and aqueous species at 298.15 K and 1 bar and at higher temperatures; preliminary models for the origin of coffinite deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hemingway, B.S.

1982-01-01

Thermodynamic values for 110 uranium-bearing phases and 28 aqueous uranium solution species (298.15 K and l bar) are tabulated based upon evaluated experimental data (largely from calorimetric experiments) and estimated values. Molar volume data are given for most of the solid phases. Thermodynamic values for 16 uranium-bearing phases are presented for higher temperatures in the form of and as a supplement to U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1452 (Robie et al., 1979). The internal consistency of the thermodynamic values reported herein is dependent upon the reliability of the experimental results for several uranium phases that have been used as secondary calorimetric reference phases. The data for the reference phases and for those phases evaluated with respect to the secondary reference phases are discussed. A preliminary model for coffinite formation has been proposed together with an estimate of the free energy of formation of coffinite. Free energy values are estimated for several other uranium-bearing silicate phases that have been reported as secondary uranium phases associated with uranium ore deposits and that could be expected to develop wherever uranium is leached by groundwaters.

Optimized two-frequency phase-measuring-profilometry light-sensor temporal-noise sensitivity.

PubMed

Li, Jielin; Hassebrook, Laurence G; Guan, Chun

2003-01-01

Temporal frame-to-frame noise in multipattern structured light projection can significantly corrupt depth measurement repeatability. We present a rigorous stochastic analysis of phase-measuring-profilometry temporal noise as a function of the pattern parameters and the reconstruction coefficients. The analysis is used to optimize the two-frequency phase measurement technique. In phase-measuring profilometry, a sequence of phase-shifted sine-wave patterns is projected onto a surface. In two-frequency phase measurement, two sets of pattern sequences are used. The first, low-frequency set establishes a nonambiguous depth estimate, and the second, high-frequency set is unwrapped, based on the low-frequency estimate, to obtain an accurate depth estimate. If the second frequency is too low, then depth error is caused directly by temporal noise in the phase measurement. If the second frequency is too high, temporal noise triggers ambiguous unwrapping, resulting in depth measurement error. We present a solution for finding the second frequency, where intensity noise variance is at its minimum.

Comparing risk estimates following diagnostic CT radiation exposures employing different methodological approaches.

PubMed

Kashcheev, Valery V; Pryakhin, Evgeny A; Menyaylo, Alexander N; Chekin, Sergey Yu; Ivanov, Viktor K

2014-06-01

The current study has two aims: the first is to quantify the difference between radiation risks estimated with the use of organ or effective doses, particularly when planning pediatric and adult computed tomography (CT) examinations. The second aim is to determine the method of calculating organ doses and cancer risk using dose-length product (DLP) for typical routine CT examinations. In both cases, the radiation-induced cancer risks from medical CT examinations were evaluated as a function of gender and age. Lifetime attributable risk values from CT scanning were estimated with the use of ICRP (Publication 103) risk models and Russian national medical statistics data. For populations under the age of 50 y, the risk estimates based on organ doses usually are 30% higher than estimates based on effective doses. In older populations, the difference can be up to a factor of 2.5. The typical distributions of organ doses were defined for Chest Routine, Abdominal Routine, and Head Routine examinations. The distributions of organ doses were dependent on the anatomical region of scanning. The most exposed organs/tissues were thyroid, breast, esophagus, and lungs in cases of Chest Routine examination; liver, stomach, colon, ovaries, and bladder in cases of Abdominal Routine examination; and brain for Head Routine examinations. The conversion factors for calculation of typical organ doses or tissues at risk using DLP were determined. Lifetime attributable risk of cancer estimated with organ doses calculated from DLP was compared with the risk estimated on the basis of organ doses measured with the use of silicon photodiode dosimeters. The estimated difference in LAR is less than 29%.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Design and validation of a GNC system for missions to asteroids: the AIM scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellacani, A.; Kicman, P.; Suatoni, M.; Casasco, M.; Gil, J.; Carnelli, I.

2017-12-01

Deep space missions, and in particular missions to asteroids, impose a certain level of autonomy that depends on the mission objectives. If the mission requires the spacecraft to perform close approaches to the target body (the extreme case being a landing scenario), the autonomy level must be increased to guarantee the fast and reactive response which is required in both nominal and contingency operations. The GNC system must be designed in accordance with the required level of autonomy. The GNC system designed and tested in the frame of ESA's Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) system studies (Phase A/B1 and Consolidation Phase) is an example of an autonomous GNC system that meets the challenging objectives of AIM. The paper reports the design of such GNC system and its validation through a DDVV plan that includes Model-in-the-Loop and Hardware-in-the-Loop testing. Main focus is the translational navigation, which is able to provide online the relative state estimation with respect to the target body using exclusively cameras as relative navigation sensors. The relative navigation outputs are meant to be used for nominal spacecraft trajectory corrections as well as to estimate the collision risk with the asteroid and, if needed, to command the execution of a collision avoidance manoeuvre to guarantee spacecraft safety

Imbibition of hydraulic fracturing fluids into partially saturated shale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birdsell, Daniel T.; Rajaram, Harihar; Lackey, Greg

2015-08-01

Recent studies suggest that imbibition of hydraulic fracturing fluids into partially saturated shale is an important mechanism that restricts their migration, thus reducing the risk of groundwater contamination. We present computations of imbibition based on an exact semianalytical solution for spontaneous imbibition. These computations lead to quantitative estimates of an imbibition rate parameter (A) with units of LT-1/2 for shale, which is related to porous medium and fluid properties, and the initial water saturation. Our calculations suggest that significant fractions of injected fluid volumes (15-95%) can be imbibed in shale gas systems, whereas imbibition volumes in shale oil systems is much lower (3-27%). We present a nondimensionalization of A, which provides insights into the critical factors controlling imbibition, and facilitates the estimation of A based on readily measured porous medium and fluid properties. For a given set of medium and fluid properties, A varies by less than factors of ˜1.8 (gas nonwetting phase) and ˜3.4 (oil nonwetting phase) over the range of initial water saturations reported for the Marcellus shale (0.05-0.6). However, for higher initial water saturations, A decreases significantly. The intrinsic permeability of the shale and the viscosity of the fluids are the most important properties controlling the imbibition rate.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

2017-11-01

An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

Older age at the completion of linear growth is associated with an increased risk of adult glioma.

PubMed

Little, Rebecca B; Nabors, L Burt; Olson, Jeffrey J; Thompson, Zachary J; Rozmeski, Carrie M; LaRocca, Renato V; Forsyth, Peter A; Thompson, Reid C; Oster, Robert A; Chowdhary, Sajeel A; Egan, Kathleen M

2017-07-01

To examine the association of age when adult height was attained with glioma risk. We analyzed data from a US-based case-control study of glioma risk factors. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) associated between age at attainment of adult height and glioma risk. Multivariate models were adjusted for age, race, sex, education, and state of residence. We examined associations overall, and according to glioma grade, sex, and final adult height. The study set included n = 951 controls and n = 776 cases, with a median age of 56 (18-92); the majority was male (53.8%) and identified as Caucasian. Older age at height completion was associated with an increased risk of glioma. A significant positive trend was observed both for glioblastoma (OR 1.10; 95% CI 1.04-1.17 per 1-year increase in age) and lower grade non-glioblastoma subtypes combined (OR 1.18; 95% CI 1.10-1.28 per year increase in age). The association was observed in men and women, and in all categories of final adult height. We observed for the first time a positive association between glioma risk and a prolonged adolescent growth phase. Our results suggest a role for factors governing the timing and intensity of growth in adolescence as risk-determining exposures in adult glioma.

Mental Health and Related Factors of Hospital Nurses.

PubMed

Nukui, Hiroshi; Murakami, Michio; Midorikawa, Sanae; Suenaga, Minako; Rokkaku, Yuichi; Yabe, Hirooki; Ohtsuru, Akira

2017-03-01

The mental health of hospital nurses is a key health issue in public health promotion during the recovery phase following the Fukushima disaster. In this study, conducted 4 years after the disaster, we analyzed the overall mental health, knowledge, risk perception of radiation, and work and daily life burdens of nurses working at medical institutions in the Fukushima Prefecture (collection rate = 89.6%; response number = 730). Overall mental health status was estimated using the 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire, and 333 respondents (45.6%) scored above the 12-item General Health Questionnaire threshold point (≥4), indicating probable emotional distress compared with the general population under normal circumstances. Multivariate logistic analysis suggested that the ability to cope with daily life and work-related stressors were more important than risk perception and acquisition of knowledge regarding radiation and its control methods for supporting the mental health of nurses following the Fukushima disaster.

A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Keeney, Ralph L

2017-03-01

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

RenalGuard system in high-risk patients for contrast-induced acute kidney injury.

PubMed

Briguori, Carlo; Visconti, Gabriella; Donahue, Michael; De Micco, Francesca; Focaccio, Amelia; Golia, Bruno; Signoriello, Giuseppe; Ciardiello, Carmine; Donnarumma, Elvira; Condorelli, Gerolama

2016-03-01

High urine flow rate (UFR) has been suggested as a target for effective prevention of contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI). The RenalGuard therapy (saline infusion plus furosemide controlled by the RenalGuard system) facilitates the achievement of this target. Four hundred consecutive patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤30 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) and/or a high predicted risk (according to the Mehran score ≥11 and/or the Gurm score >7%) treated by the RenalGuard therapy were analyzed. The primary end points were (1) the relationship between CI-AKI and UFR during preprocedural, intraprocedural, and postprocedural phases of the RenalGuard therapy and (2) the rate of acute pulmonary edema and impairment in electrolytes balance. Urine flow rate was significantly lower in the patients with CI-AKI in the preprocedural phase (208 ± 117 vs 283 ± 160 mL/h, P < .001) and in the intraprocedural phase (389 ± 198 vs 483 ± 225 mL/h, P = .009). The best threshold for CI-AKI prevention was a mean intraprocedural phase UFR ≥450 mL/h (area under curve 0.62, P = .009, sensitivity 80%, specificity 46%). Performance of percutaneous coronary intervention (hazard ratio [HR] 4.13, 95% CI 1.81-9.10, P < .001), the intraprocedural phase UFR <450 mL/h (HR 2.27, 95% CI 1.05-2.01, P = .012), and total furosemide dose >0.32 mg/kg (HR 5.03, 95% CI 2.33-10.87, P < .001) were independent predictors of CI-AKI. Pulmonary edema occurred in 4 patients (1%). Potassium replacement was required in 16 patients (4%). No patients developed severe hypomagnesemia, hyponatremia, or hypernatremia. RenalGuard therapy is safe and effective in reaching high UFR. Mean intraprocedural UFR ≥450 mL/h should be the target for optimal CI-AKI prevention. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suicide Prevention in an Emergency Department Population: The ED-SAFE Study.

PubMed

Miller, Ivan W; Camargo, Carlos A; Arias, Sarah A; Sullivan, Ashley F; Allen, Michael H; Goldstein, Amy B; Manton, Anne P; Espinola, Janice A; Jones, Richard; Hasegawa, Kohei; Boudreaux, Edwin D

2017-06-01

Suicide is a leading cause of deaths in the United States. Although the emergency department (ED) is an opportune setting for initiating suicide prevention efforts, ED-initiated suicide prevention interventions remain underdeveloped. To determine whether an ED-initiated intervention reduces subsequent suicidal behavior. This multicenter study of 8 EDs in the United States enrolled adults with a recent suicide attempt or ideation and was composed of 3 sequential phases: (1) a treatment as usual (TAU) phase from August 2010 to December 2011, (2) a universal screening (screening) phase from September 2011 to December 2012, and (3) a universal screening plus intervention (intervention) phase from July 2012 to November 2013. Screening consisted of universal suicide risk screening. The intervention phase consisted of universal screening plus an intervention, which included secondary suicide risk screening by the ED physician, discharge resources, and post-ED telephone calls focused on reducing suicide risk. The primary outcome was suicide attempts (nonfatal and fatal) over the 52-week follow-up period. The proportion and total number of attempts were analyzed. A total of 1376 participants were recruited, including 769 females (55.9%) with a median (interquartile range) age of 37 (26-47) years. A total of 288 participants (20.9%) made at least 1 suicide attempt, and there were 548 total suicide attempts among participants. There were no significant differences in risk reduction between the TAU and screening phases (23% vs 22%, respectively). However, compared with the TAU phase, patients in the intervention phase showed a 5% absolute reduction in suicide attempt risk (23% vs 18%), with a relative risk reduction of 20%. Participants in the intervention phase had 30% fewer total suicide attempts than participants in the TAU phase. Negative binomial regression analysis indicated that the participants in the intervention phase had significantly fewer total suicide attempts than participants in the TAU phase (incidence rate ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00; P = .05) but no differences between the TAU and screening phases (incidence rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.71-1.41; P = .99). Among at-risk patients in the ED, a combination of brief interventions administered both during and after the ED visit decreased post-ED suicidal behavior.

Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

PubMed

Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

2014-02-01

Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p < 0.0001) for each outcome category. When surgeons perceived patient risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

1982-01-01

This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

Minimax Quantum Tomography: Estimators and Relative Entropy Bounds.

PubMed

Ferrie, Christopher; Blume-Kohout, Robin

2016-03-04

A minimax estimator has the minimum possible error ("risk") in the worst case. We construct the first minimax estimators for quantum state tomography with relative entropy risk. The minimax risk of nonadaptive tomography scales as O(1/sqrt[N])-in contrast to that of classical probability estimation, which is O(1/N)-where N is the number of copies of the quantum state used. We trace this deficiency to sampling mismatch: future observations that determine risk may come from a different sample space than the past data that determine the estimate. This makes minimax estimators very biased, and we propose a computationally tractable alternative with similar behavior in the worst case, but superior accuracy on most states.

Parameter estimation of qubit states with unknown phase parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Jun

2015-02-01

We discuss a problem of parameter estimation for quantum two-level system, qubit system, in presence of unknown phase parameter. We analyze trade-off relations for mean square errors (MSEs) when estimating relevant parameters with separable measurements based on known precision bounds; the symmetric logarithmic derivative (SLD) Cramér-Rao (CR) bound and Hayashi-Gill-Massar (HGM) bound. We investigate the optimal measurement which attains the HGM bound and discuss its properties. We show that the HGM bound for relevant parameters can be attained asymptotically by using some fraction of given n quantum states to estimate the phase parameter. We also discuss the Holevo bound which can be attained asymptotically by a collective measurement.

Release and Gas-Particle Partitioning Behaviors of Short-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins (SCCPs) During the Thermal Treatment of Polyvinyl Chloride Flooring.

PubMed

Zhan, Faqiang; Zhang, Haijun; Wang, Jing; Xu, Jiazhi; Yuan, Heping; Gao, Yuan; Su, Fan; Chen, Jiping

2017-08-15

Chlorinated paraffin (CP) mixture is a common additive in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) products as a plasticizer and flame retardant. During the PVC plastic life cycle, intentional or incidental thermal processes inevitably cause an abrupt release of short-chain CPs (SCCPs). In this study, the thermal processing of PVC plastics was simulated by heating PVC flooring at 100-200 °C in a chamber. The 1 h thermal treatment caused the release of 1.9-10.7% of the embedded SCCPs. A developed emission model indicated that SCCP release was mainly controlled by material-gas partitioning at 100 °C. However, release control tended to be subjected to material-phase diffusion above 150 °C, especially for SCCP congeners with shorter carbon-chain lengths. A cascade impactor (NanoMoudi) was used to collect particles of different sizes and gas-phase SCCPs. The elevated temperature resulted in a higher partition of SCCPs from the gas-phase to particle-phase. SCCPs were not strongly inclined to form aerosol particles by nucleation, and less present in the Aitken mode particles. Junge-Pankow adsorption model well fitted the partitioning of SCCPs between the gas-phase and accumulation mode particles. Inhalation exposure estimation indicated that PVC processing and recycling workers could face a considerably high risk for exposure to SCCPs.

Radiation dose to critical body organs for October 1989 proton event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Atwell, William; Nealy, John E.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

1992-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-7) provides high-quality environmental data about the temporal development and energy characteristics of the protons emitted during a solar particle event. The GOES-7 time history of the hourly averaged integral proton flux for various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event occurring October 19-29, 1989. This event is similar to the August 1972 event that has been widely studied to estimate free-space and planetary radiation-protection requirements. By analyzing the time-history data, the dose rates, which can vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare, can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. When basic transport results are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions calculated with the Computerized Anatomical Man and Computerized Anatomical Female models, the dose rates and cumulative doses to specific organs can be predicted. With these results, the risks of cancer incidence and mortality are estimated for astronauts in free space protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Cancer incidence attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors in Alberta in 2012: summary of results

PubMed Central

Grundy, Anne; Poirier, Abbey E.; Khandwala, Farah; Grevers, Xin; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Brenner, Darren R.

2017-01-01

Background: Estimates of the proportion of cancer cases that can be attributed to modifiable risk factors are not available for Canada and, more specifically, Alberta. The purpose of this study was to estimate the total proportion of cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 that could be attributed to a set of 24 modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. Methods: We estimated summary population attributable risk estimates for 24 risk factors (smoking [both passive and active], overweight and obesity, inadequate physical activity, diet [inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption, inadequate fibre intake, excess red and processed meat consumption, salt consumption, inadequate calcium and vitamin D intake], alcohol, hormones [oral contraceptives and hormone therapy], infections [Epstein-Barr virus, hepatitis B and C viruses, human papillomavirus, Helicobacter pylori], air pollution, natural and artificial ultraviolet radiation, radon and water disinfection by-products) by combining population attributable risk estimates for each of the 24 factors that had been previously estimated. To account for the possibility that individual cancer cases were the result of a combination of multiple risk factors, we subtracted the population attributable risk for the first factor from 100% and then applied the population attributable risk for the second factor to the remaining proportion that was not attributable to the first factor. We repeated this process in sequential order for all relevant exposures. Results: Overall, an estimated 40.8% of cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 were attributable to modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. The largest proportion of cancers were estimated to be attributable to tobacco smoking, physical inactivity and excess body weight. The summary population attributable risk estimate was slightly higher among women (42.4%) than among men (38.7%). Interpretation: About 41% of cancer cases in Alberta may be attributable to known modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. Reducing the prevalence of these factors in the Alberta population has the potential to substantially reduce the provincial cancer burden. PMID:28687643

Improving Focal Depth Estimates: Studies of Depth Phase Detection at Regional Distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroujkova, A.; Reiter, D. T.; Shumway, R. H.

2006-12-01

The accurate estimation of the depth of small, regionally recorded events continues to be an important and difficult explosion monitoring research problem. Depth phases (free surface reflections) are the primary tool that seismologists use to constrain the depth of a seismic event. When depth phases from an event are detected, an accurate source depth is easily found by using the delay times of the depth phases relative to the P wave and a velocity profile near the source. Cepstral techniques, including cepstral F-statistics, represent a class of methods designed for the depth-phase detection and identification; however, they offer only a moderate level of success at epicentral distances less than 15°. This is due to complexities in the Pn coda, which can lead to numerous false detections in addition to the true phase detection. Therefore, cepstral methods cannot be used independently to reliably identify depth phases. Other evidence, such as apparent velocities, amplitudes and frequency content, must be used to confirm whether the phase is truly a depth phase. In this study we used a variety of array methods to estimate apparent phase velocities and arrival azimuths, including beam-forming, semblance analysis, MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) (e.g., Schmidt, 1979), and cross-correlation (e.g., Cansi, 1995; Tibuleac and Herrin, 1997). To facilitate the processing and comparison of results, we developed a MATLAB-based processing tool, which allows application of all of these techniques (i.e., augmented cepstral processing) in a single environment. The main objective of this research was to combine the results of three focal-depth estimation techniques and their associated standard errors into a statistically valid unified depth estimate. The three techniques include: 1. Direct focal depth estimate from the depth-phase arrival times picked via augmented cepstral processing. 2. Hypocenter location from direct and surface-reflected arrivals observed on sparse networks of regional stations using a Grid-search, Multiple-Event Location method (GMEL; Rodi and Toksöz, 2000; 2001). 3. Surface-wave dispersion inversion for event depth and focal mechanism (Herrmann and Ammon, 2002). To validate our approach and provide quality control for our solutions, we applied the techniques to moderated- sized events (mb between 4.5 and 6.0) with known focal mechanisms. We illustrate the techniques using events observed at regional distances from the KSAR (Wonju, South Korea) teleseismic array and other nearby broadband three-component stations. Our results indicate that the techniques can produce excellent agreement between the various depth estimates. In addition, combining the techniques into a "unified" estimate greatly reduced location errors and improved robustness of the solution, even if results from the individual methods yielded large standard errors.

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

Carbon footprint estimator, phase II : volume II - technical appendices.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

The GASCAP model was developed to provide a software tool for analysis of the life-cycle GHG : emissions associated with the construction and maintenance of transportation projects. This phase : of development included techniques for estimating emiss...

Carbon footprint estimator, phase II : volume I - GASCAP model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

The GASCAP model was developed to provide a software tool for analysis of the life-cycle GHG : emissions associated with the construction and maintenance of transportation projects. This phase : of development included techniques for estimating emiss...

Adaptive Sparse Representation for Source Localization with Gain/Phase Errors

PubMed Central

Sun, Ke; Liu, Yimin; Meng, Huadong; Wang, Xiqin

2011-01-01

Sparse representation (SR) algorithms can be implemented for high-resolution direction of arrival (DOA) estimation. Additionally, SR can effectively separate the coherent signal sources because the spectrum estimation is based on the optimization technique, such as the L1 norm minimization, but not on subspace orthogonality. However, in the actual source localization scenario, an unknown gain/phase error between the array sensors is inevitable. Due to this nonideal factor, the predefined overcomplete basis mismatches the actual array manifold so that the estimation performance is degraded in SR. In this paper, an adaptive SR algorithm is proposed to improve the robustness with respect to the gain/phase error, where the overcomplete basis is dynamically adjusted using multiple snapshots and the sparse solution is adaptively acquired to match with the actual scenario. The simulation results demonstrate the estimation robustness to the gain/phase error using the proposed method. PMID:22163875

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Socio-Technical Exploration for Reducing & Mitigating the Risk of Retained Foreign Objects

PubMed Central

Corrigan, Siobhán; Kay, Alison; O’Byrne, Katie; Slattery, Dubhfeasa; Sheehan, Sharon; McDonald, Nick; Smyth, David; Mealy, Ken; Cromie, Sam

2018-01-01

A Retained Foreign Object (RFO) is a fairly infrequent but serious adverse event. An accurate rate of RFOs is difficult to establish due to underreporting but it has been estimated that incidences range between 1/1000 and 1/19,000 procedures. The cost of a RFO incident may be substantial and three-fold: (i) the cost to the patient of physical and/or psychological harm; (ii) the reputational cost to an institution and/or healthcare provider; and (iii) the financial cost to the taxpayer in the event of a legal claim. This Health Research Board-funded project aims to analyse and understand the problem of RFOs in surgical and maternity settings in Ireland and develop hospital-specific foreign object management processes and implementation roadmaps. This project will deploy an integrated evidence-based assessment methodology for social-technical modelling (Supply, Context, Organising, Process & Effects/ SCOPE Analysis Cube) and bow tie methodologies that focuses on managing the risks in effectively implementing and sustaining change. It comprises a multi-phase research approach that involves active and ongoing collaboration with clinical and other healthcare staff through each phase of the research. The specific objective of this paper is to present the methodological approach and outline the potential to produce generalisable results which could be applied to other health-related issues. PMID:29642646

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mouton, S.; Ledoux, Y.; Teissandier, D.

A key challenge for the future is to reduce drastically the human impact on the environment. In the aeronautic field, this challenge aims at optimizing the design of the aircraft to decrease the global mass. This reduction leads to the optimization of every part constitutive of the plane. This operation is even more delicate when the used material is composite material. In this case, it is necessary to find a compromise between the strength, the mass and the manufacturing cost of the component. Due to these different kinds of design constraints it is necessary to assist engineer with decision supportmore » system to determine feasible solutions. In this paper, an approach is proposed based on the coupling of the different key characteristics of the design process and on the consideration of the failure risk of the component. The originality of this work is that the manufacturing deviations due to the RTM process are integrated in the simulation of the assembly process. Two kinds of deviations are identified: volume impregnation (injection phase of RTM process) and geometrical deviations (curing and cooling phases). The quantification of these deviations and the related failure risk calculation is based on finite element simulations (Pam RTM registered and Samcef registered softwares). The use of genetic algorithm allows to estimate the impact of the design choices and their consequences on the failure risk of the component. The main focus of the paper is the optimization of tool design. In the framework of decision support systems, the failure risk calculation is used for making the comparison of possible industrialization alternatives. It is proposed to apply this method on a particular part of the airplane structure: a spar unit made of carbon fiber/epoxy composite.« less

Global analysis of breast feeding and risk of symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in 6-7 year old children: ISAAC Phase Three.

PubMed

Björkstén, B; Aït-Khaled, N; Innes Asher, M; Clayton, T O; Robertson, C

2011-01-01

In Phase Three of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), we investigated the relationship between breast feeding in infancy and symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in 6-7 year old children. Parents or guardians of 6-7 year old children completed written questionnaires on current symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema, and on a range of possible asthma risk factors including a history of breast feeding ever. Prevalence odds ratios were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for gender, region of the world, language, per capita gross national income, and other risk factors. In all 206,453 children from 72 centres in 31 countries participated in the study. Reported breast feeding ever was not associated with current wheeze, with an odds ratio (adjusted for gender, region of the world, language, per capita gross national income, and factors encountered in infancy) of 0.99 (95% CI 0.92-1.05), current rhinoconjunctivitis (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93-1.08), current eczema (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.97-1.12), or symptoms of severe asthma (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.87-1.05). Breast feeding was however associated with a reduced risk of severe rhinoconjunctivitis (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.59-0.94) and severe eczema (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66-0.95). There was no consistent association between breast feeding use in the first year of life and either a history or current symptoms of wheezing, rhinoconjunctivitis or eczema in 6-7 year old children, but possibly an effect on severe symptoms of the latter two conditions. Copyright © 2011 SEICAP. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Effect of education and clinical assessment on the accuracy of post partum blood loss estimation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This research aimed to assess the effect of health care provider education on the accuracy of post partum blood loss estimation. Methods A non-randomized observational study that was conducted at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011. Hundred and twenty three health care providers who are involved in the estimation of post partum blood loss were eligible to participate. The participants were subjected to three research phases and an educational intervention. They have assessed a total of 30 different simulated blood loss stations, with 10 stations in each of the research phases. These phases took place before and after educational sessions on how to visually estimate blood loss and how to best utilize patient data in clinical scenarios. We have assessed the differences between the estimated blood loss and the actual measure. P-values were calculated to assess the differences between the three research phases estimations. Results The participants significantly under-estimated post partum blood loss. The accuracy was improved after training (p-value < 0.0001) and after analysing each patient’s clinical information (p-value = 0.042). The overall results were not affected by the participants’ clinical backgrounds or their years of experience. Under-estimation was more prominent in cases where more than average-excessive blood losses were simulated while over-estimations or accurate estimations were more prominent in less than average blood loss incidents. Conclusion Simple education programmes can improve traditional findings related to under-estimation of blood loss. More sophisticated clinical education programmes may provide additional improvements. PMID:24646156

Gait Phase Estimation Based on Noncontact Capacitive Sensing and Adaptive Oscillators.

PubMed

Zheng, Enhao; Manca, Silvia; Yan, Tingfang; Parri, Andrea; Vitiello, Nicola; Wang, Qining

2017-10-01

This paper presents a novel strategy aiming to acquire an accurate and walking-speed-adaptive estimation of the gait phase through noncontact capacitive sensing and adaptive oscillators (AOs). The capacitive sensing system is designed with two sensing cuffs that can measure the leg muscle shape changes during walking. The system can be dressed above the clothes and free human skin from contacting to electrodes. In order to track the capacitance signals, the gait phase estimator is designed based on the AO dynamic system due to its ability of synchronizing with quasi-periodic signals. After the implementation of the whole system, we first evaluated the offline estimation performance by experiments with 12 healthy subjects walking on a treadmill with changing speeds. The strategy achieved an accurate and consistent gait phase estimation with only one channel of capacitance signal. The average root-mean-square errors in one stride were 0.19 rad (3.0% of one gait cycle) for constant walking speeds and 0.31 rad (4.9% of one gait cycle) for speed transitions even after the subjects rewore the sensing cuffs. We then validated our strategy in a real-time gait phase estimation task with three subjects walking with changing speeds. Our study indicates that the strategy based on capacitive sensing and AOs is a promising alternative for the control of exoskeleton/orthosis.

Parameters effective on estimating a nonstationary mixed-phase wavelet using cumulant matching approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vosoughi, Ehsan; Javaherian, Abdolrahim

2018-01-01

Seismic inversion is a process performed to remove the effects of propagated wavelets in order to recover the acoustic impedance. To obtain valid velocity and density values related to subsurface layers through the inversion process, it is highly essential to perform reliable wavelet estimation such as cumulant matching approach. For this purpose, the seismic data were windowed in this work in such a way that two consecutive windows were only one sample apart. Also, we did not consider any fixed wavelet for any window and let the phase of each wavelet rotate in each sample in the window. Comparing the fourth order cumulant of the whitened trace and fourth-order moment of the all-pass operator in each window generated a cost function that should be minimized with a non-linear optimization method. In this regard, parameters effective on the estimation of the nonstationary mixed-phase wavelets were tested over the created nonstationary seismic trace at 0.82 s and 1.6 s. Besides, we compared the consequences of each parameter on estimated wavelets at two mentioned times. The parameters studied in this work are window length, taper type, the number of iteration, signal-to-noise ratio, bandwidth to central frequency ratio, and Q factor. The results show that applying the optimum values of the effective parameters, the average correlation of the estimated mixed-phase wavelets with the original ones is about 87%. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed approach was examined on a synthetic nonstationary seismic section with variable Q factor values alongside the time and offset axis. Eventually, the cumulant matching method was applied on a cross line of the migrated data from a 3D data set of an oilfield in the Persian Gulf. Also, the effect of the wrong Q estimation on the estimated mixed-phase wavelet was considered on the real data set. It is concluded that the accuracy of the estimated wavelet relied on the estimated Q and more than 10% error in the estimated value of Q is acceptable. Eventually, an 88% correlation was found between the estimated mixed-phase wavelets and the original ones for three horizons. The estimated wavelets applied to the data and the result of deconvolution processes was presented.

Heterogeneity and Risk Sharing in Village Economies*

PubMed Central

Chiappori, Pierre-André; Samphantharak, Krislert; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Townsend, Robert M.

2013-01-01

We show how to use panel data on household consumption to directly estimate households’ risk preferences. Specifically, we measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model, which we then test allowing for this heterogeneity. There is substantial, statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated risk preferences. Full insurance cannot be rejected. As the risk sharing, as-if-complete-markets theory might predict, estimated risk preferences are unrelated to wealth or other characteristics. The heterogeneity matters for policy: Although the average household would benefit from eliminating village-level risk, less-risk-averse households who are paid to absorb that risk would be worse off by several percent of household consumption. PMID:24932226

Strategies to diagnose ovarian cancer: new evidence from phase 3 of the multicentre international IOTA study.

PubMed

Testa, A; Kaijser, J; Wynants, L; Fischerova, D; Van Holsbeke, C; Franchi, D; Savelli, L; Epstein, E; Czekierdowski, A; Guerriero, S; Fruscio, R; Leone, F P G; Vergote, I; Bourne, T; Valentin, L; Van Calster, B; Timmerman, D

2014-08-12

To compare different ultrasound-based international ovarian tumour analysis (IOTA) strategies and risk of malignancy index (RMI) for ovarian cancer diagnosis using a meta-analysis approach of centre-specific data from IOTA3. This prospective multicentre diagnostic accuracy study included 2403 patients with 1423 benign and 980 malignant adnexal masses from 2009 until 2012. All patients underwent standardised transvaginal ultrasonography. Test performance of RMI, subjective assessment (SA) of ultrasound findings, two IOTA risk models (LR1 and LR2), and strategies involving combinations of IOTA simple rules (SRs), simple descriptors (SDs) and LR2 with and without SA was estimated using a meta-analysis approach. Reference standard was histology after surgery. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves of LR1, LR2, SA and RMI were 0.930 (0.917-0.942), 0.918 (0.905-0.930), 0.914 (0.886-0.936) and 0.875 (0.853-0.894). Diagnostic one-step and two-step strategies using LR1, LR2, SR and SD achieved summary estimates for sensitivity 90-96%, specificity 74-79% and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 32.8-50.5. Adding SA when IOTA methods yielded equivocal results improved performance (DOR 57.6-75.7). Risk of Malignancy Index had sensitivity 67%, specificity 91% and DOR 17.5. This study shows all IOTA strategies had excellent diagnostic performance in comparison with RMI. The IOTA strategy chosen may be determined by clinical preference.

Toward Improved Methods of Estimating Attenuation, Phase and Group velocity of surface waves observed on Shallow Seismic Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, M. S.; Holschneider, M.; Kulesh, M.; Scherbaum, F.; Ohrnberger, M.; Lück, E.

2004-05-01

This contribution is concerned with the estimate of attenuation and dispersion characteristics of surface waves observed on a shallow seismic record. The analysis is based on a initial parameterization of the phase and attenuation functions which are then estimated by minimizing a properly defined merit function. To minimize the effect of random noise on the estimates of dispersion and attenuation we use cross-correlations (in Fourier domain) of preselected traces from some region of interest along the survey line. These cross-correlations are then expressed in terms of the parameterized attenuation and phase functions and the auto-correlation of the so-called source trace or reference trace. Cross-corelation that enter the optimization are selected so as to provide an average estimate of both the attenuation function and the phase (group) velocity of the area under investigation. The advantage of the method over the standard two stations method using Fourier technique is that uncertainties related to the phase unwrapping and the estimate of the number of 2π cycle skip in the phase phase are eliminated. However when mutliple modes arrival are observed, its become merely impossible to obtain reliable estimate the dipsersion curves for the different modes using optimization method alone. To circumvent this limitations we using the presented approach in conjunction with the wavelet propagation operator (Kulesh et al., 2003) which allows the application of band pass filtering in (ω -t) domain, to select a particular mode for the minimization. Also by expressing the cost function in the wavelet domain the optimization can be performed either with respect to the phase, the modulus of the transform or a combination of both. This flexibility in the design of the cost function provides an additional mean of constraining the optimization results. Results from the application of this dispersion and attenuation analysis method are shown for both synthetic and real 2D shallow seismic data sets. M. Kulesh, M. Holschneider, M. S. Diallo, Q. Xie and F. Scherbaum, Modeling of Wave Dispersion Using Wavelet Transfrom (Submitted to Pure and Applied Geophysics).

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

A method searching for optimum fractional order and its application in self-phase modulation induced nonlinear phase noise estimation in coherent optical fiber transmission systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chuan; Guo, Peng; Yang, Aiying; Qiao, Yaojun

2018-07-01

In single channel systems, the nonlinear phase noise only comes from the channel itself through self-phase modulation (SPM). In this paper, a fast-nonlinear effect estimation method is proposed based on fractional Fourier transformation (FrFT). The nonlinear phase noise caused by Self-phase modulation effect is accurately estimated for single model 10Gbaud OOK and RZ-QPSK signals with the fiber length range of 0-200 km and the launch power range of 1-10 mW. The pulse windowing is adopted to search the optimum fractional order for the OOK and RZ-QPSK signals. Since the nonlinear phase shift caused by the SPM effect is very small, the accurate optimum fractional order of the signal cannot be found based on the traditional method. In this paper, a new method magnifying the phase shift is proposed to get the accurate optimum order and thus the nonlinear phase shift is calculated. The simulation results agree with the theoretical analysis and the method is applicable to signals whose pulse type has the similar characteristics with Gaussian pulse.

Refining Ovarian Cancer Test accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS): protocol for a prospective longitudinal test accuracy study to validate new risk scores in women with symptoms of suspected ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Sundar, Sudha; Rick, Caroline; Dowling, Francis; Au, Pui; Snell, Kym; Rai, Nirmala; Champaneria, Rita; Stobart, Hilary; Neal, Richard; Davenport, Clare; Mallett, Susan; Sutton, Andrew; Kehoe, Sean; Timmerman, Dirk; Bourne, Tom; Van Calster, Ben; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Menon, Usha; Deeks, Jon

2016-08-09

Ovarian cancer (OC) is associated with non-specific symptoms such as bloating, making accurate diagnosis challenging: only 1 in 3 women with OC presents through primary care referral. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines recommends sequential testing with CA125 and routine ultrasound in primary care. However, these diagnostic tests have limited sensitivity or specificity. Improving accurate triage in women with vague symptoms is likely to improve mortality by streamlining referral and care pathways. The Refining Ovarian Cancer Test Accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS; HTA 13/13/01) project will derive and validate new tests/risk prediction models that estimate the probability of having OC in women with symptoms. This protocol refers to the prospective study only (phase III). ROCkeTS comprises four parallel phases. The full ROCkeTS protocol can be found at http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/ROCKETS. Phase III is a prospective test accuracy study. The study will recruit 2450 patients from 15 UK sites. Recruited patients complete symptom and anxiety questionnaires, donate a serum sample and undergo ultrasound scored as per International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) criteria. Recruitment is at rapid access clinics, emergency departments and elective clinics. Models to be evaluated include those based on ultrasound derived by the IOTA group and novel models derived from analysis of existing data sets. Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, c-statistic (area under receiver operating curve), positive predictive value and negative predictive value of diagnostic tests are evaluated and a calibration plot for models will be presented. ROCkeTS has received ethical approval from the NHS West Midlands REC (14/WM/1241) and is registered on the controlled trials website (ISRCTN17160843) and the National Institute of Health Research Cancer and Reproductive Health portfolios. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

BASIN-CENTERED GAS SYSTEMS OF THE U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marin A. Popov; Vito F. Nuccio; Thaddeus S. Dyman

2000-11-01

The USGS is re-evaluating the resource potential of basin-centered gas accumulations in the U.S. because of changing perceptions of the geology of these accumulations, and the availability of new data since the USGS 1995 National Assessment of United States oil and gas resources (Gautier et al., 1996). To attain these objectives, this project used knowledge of basin-centered gas systems and procedures such as stratigraphic analysis, organic geochemistry, modeling of basin thermal dynamics, reservoir characterization, and pressure analysis. This project proceeded in two phases which had the following objectives: Phase I (4/1998 through 5/1999): Identify and describe the geologic and geographicmore » distribution of potential basin-centered gas systems, and Phase II (6/1999 through 11/2000): For selected systems, estimate the location of those basin-centered gas resources that are likely to be produced over the next 30 years. In Phase I, we characterize thirty-three (33) potential basin-centered gas systems (or accumulations) based on information published in the literature or acquired from internal computerized well and reservoir data files. These newly defined potential accumulations vary from low to high risk and may or may not survive the rigorous geologic scrutiny leading towards full assessment by the USGS. For logistical reasons, not all basins received the level of detail desired or required.« less

Development of the young spine questionnaire.

PubMed

Lauridsen, Henrik Hein; Hestbaek, Lise

2013-06-12

Back pain in children is common and early onset of back pain has been shown to increase the risk of back pain significantly in adulthood. Consequently, preventive efforts must be targeted the young population but research relating to spinal problems in this age group is scarce. Focus has primarily been on the working age population, and therefore specific questionnaires to measure spinal pain and its consequences, specifically aimed at children and adolescents are absent. The purpose of this study was to develop a questionnaire for schoolchildren filling this gap. The Young Spine Questionnaire (YSQ) was developed in three phases--a conceptualisation, development and testing phase. The conceptualisation phase followed the Wilson and Cleary model and included questions regarding spinal prevalence estimates, pain frequency and intensity, activity restrictions, care seeking behaviour and influence of parental back trouble. Items from existing questionnaires and the "Revised Faces Pain Scale" (rFPS) were included during the development phase. The testing phase consisted of a mixed quantitative and qualitative iterative method carried out in two pilot tests using 4th grade children and focusing on assessment of spinal area location and item validity. The testing phase resulted in omission of the pain drawings and the questions and answer categories were simplified in several questions. Agreement between the questionnaire prevalence estimates and the interviews ranged between 83.7% (cervical pain today) and 97.9% (thoracic pain today). To improve the understanding of the spinal boundaries we added bony landmarks to the spinal drawings after pilot test I. This resulted in an improved sense of spinal boundary location in pilot test II. Correlations between the rFPS and the interview pain score ranged between 0.67 (cervical spine) and 0.79 (lumbar spine). The Young Spine Questionnaire contains questions that assess spinal pain and its consequences. The items have been tested for content understanding and agreement between questionnaire scores and interview findings among target respondents. These preliminary results suggest that the YSQ is feasible, has content validity and is a well understood questionnaire to be used in studies of children aged 9 to 11 years.

CubeSat mission design software tool for risk estimating relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamble, Katharine Brumbaugh; Lightsey, E. Glenn

2014-09-01

In an effort to make the CubeSat risk estimation and management process more scientific, a software tool has been created that enables mission designers to estimate mission risks. CubeSat mission designers are able to input mission characteristics, such as form factor, mass, development cycle, and launch information, in order to determine the mission risk root causes which historically present the highest risk for their mission. Historical data was collected from the CubeSat community and analyzed to provide a statistical background to characterize these Risk Estimating Relationships (RERs). This paper develops and validates the mathematical model based on the same cost estimating relationship methodology used by the Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model (USCM) and the Small Satellite Cost Model (SSCM). The RER development uses general error regression models to determine the best fit relationship between root cause consequence and likelihood values and the input factors of interest. These root causes are combined into seven overall CubeSat mission risks which are then graphed on the industry-standard 5×5 Likelihood-Consequence (L-C) chart to help mission designers quickly identify areas of concern within their mission. This paper is the first to document not only the creation of a historical database of CubeSat mission risks, but, more importantly, the scientific representation of Risk Estimating Relationships.

The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjørnerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

2009-01-01

Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

PubMed Central

Pletcher, Mark J; Tice, Jeffrey A; Pignone, Michael; McCulloch, Charles; Callister, Tracy Q; Browner, Warren S

2004-01-01

Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female), we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham) to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance), her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years). In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy. PMID:15327691

Using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling for regulatory benefit-cost analysis: application to the Western hemisphere travel initiative in the land environment.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom

2008-04-01

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.

Forest resources of southeast Alaska, 2000: results of a single-phase systematic sample.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. van Hees

2003-01-01

A baseline assessment of forest resources in southeast Alaska was made by using a single-phase, unstratified, systematic-grid sample, with ground plots established at each grid intersection. Ratio-of-means estimators were used to develop population estimates. Forests cover an estimated 48 percent of the 22.9-million-acre southeast Alaska inventory unit. Dominant forest...

A digital clock recovery algorithm based on chromatic dispersion and polarization mode dispersion feedback dual phase detection for coherent optical transmission systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bo; Xin, Xiangjun; Zhang, Lijia; Wang, Fu; Zhang, Qi

2018-02-01

A new feedback symbol timing recovery technique using timing estimation joint equalization is proposed for digital receivers with two samples/symbol or higher sampling rate. Different from traditional methods, the clock recovery algorithm in this paper adopts another algorithm distinguishing the phases of adjacent symbols, so as to accurately estimate the timing offset based on the adjacent signals with the same phase. The addition of the module for eliminating phase modulation interference before timing estimation further reduce the variance, thus resulting in a smoothed timing estimate. The Mean Square Error (MSE) and Bit Error Rate (BER) of the resulting timing estimate are simulated to allow a satisfactory estimation performance. The obtained clock tone performance is satisfactory for MQAM modulation formats and the Roll-off Factor (ROF) close to 0. In the back-to-back system, when ROF= 0, the maximum of MSE obtained with the proposed approach reaches 0 . 0125. After 100-km fiber transmission, BER decreases to 10-3 with ROF= 0 and OSNR = 11 dB. With the increase in ROF, the performances of MSE and BER become better.

A Two-Radius Circular Array Method: Extracting Independent Information on Phase Velocities of Love Waves From Microtremor Records From a Simple Seismic Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tada, T.; Cho, I.; Shinozaki, Y.

2005-12-01

We have invented a Two-Radius (TR) circular array method of microtremor exploration, an algorithm that enables to estimate phase velocities of Love waves by analyzing horizontal-component records of microtremors that are obtained with an array of seismic sensors placed around circumferences of two different radii. The data recording may be done either simultaneously around the two circles or in two separate sessions with sensors distributed around each circle. Both Rayleigh and Love waves are present in the horizontal components of microtremors, but in the data processing of our TR method, all information on the Rayleigh waves ends up cancelled out, and information on the Love waves alone are left to be analyzed. Also, unlike the popularly used frequency-wavenumber spectral (F-K) method, our TR method does not resolve individual plane-wave components arriving from different directions and analyze their "vector" phase velocities, but instead directly evaluates their "scalar" phase velocities --- phase velocities that contain no information on the arrival direction of waves --- through a mathematical procedure which involves azimuthal averaging. The latter feature leads us to expect that, with our TR method, it is possible to conduct phase velocity analysis with smaller numbers of sensors, with higher stability, and up to longer-wavelength ranges than with the F-K method. With a view to investigating the capabilities and limitations of our TR method in practical implementation to real data, we have deployed circular seismic arrays of different sizes at a test site in Japan where the underground structure is well documented through geophysical exploration. Ten seismic sensors were placed equidistantly around two circumferences, five around each circle, with varying combinations of radii ranging from several meters to several tens of meters, and simultaneous records of microtremors around circles of two different radii were analyzed with our TR method to produce estimates for the phase velocities of Love waves. The estimates were then checked against "model" phase velocities that are derived from theoretical calculations. We have also conducted a check of the estimated spectral ratios against the "model" spectral ratios, where we mean by "spectral ratio" an intermediary quantity that is calculated from observed records prior to the estimation of the phase velocity in the data analysis procedure of our TR method. In most cases, the estimated phase velocities coincided well with the model phase velocities within a wavelength range extending roughly from 3r to 6r (r: array radius). It was found out that, outside the upper and lower resolution limits of the TR method, the discrepancy between the estimated and model phase velocities, as well as the discrepancy between the estimated and model spectral ratios, were accounted for satisfactorily by theoretical consideration of three factors: the presence of higher surface-wave modes, directional aliasing effects related to the finite number of sensors in the seismic array, and the presence of incoherent noise.

Development of a mechatronic platform and validation of methods for estimating ankle stiffness during the stance phase of walking.

PubMed

Rouse, Elliott J; Hargrove, Levi J; Perreault, Eric J; Peshkin, Michael A; Kuiken, Todd A

2013-08-01

The mechanical properties of human joints (i.e., impedance) are constantly modulated to precisely govern human interaction with the environment. The estimation of these properties requires the displacement of the joint from its intended motion and a subsequent analysis to determine the relationship between the imposed perturbation and the resultant joint torque. There has been much investigation into the estimation of upper-extremity joint impedance during dynamic activities, yet the estimation of ankle impedance during walking has remained a challenge. This estimation is important for understanding how the mechanical properties of the human ankle are modulated during locomotion, and how those properties can be replicated in artificial prostheses designed to restore natural movement control. Here, we introduce a mechatronic platform designed to address the challenge of estimating the stiffness component of ankle impedance during walking, where stiffness denotes the static component of impedance. The system consists of a single degree of freedom mechatronic platform that is capable of perturbing the ankle during the stance phase of walking and measuring the response torque. Additionally, we estimate the platform's intrinsic inertial impedance using parallel linear filters and present a set of methods for estimating the impedance of the ankle from walking data. The methods were validated by comparing the experimentally determined estimates for the stiffness of a prosthetic foot to those measured from an independent testing machine. The parallel filters accurately estimated the mechatronic platform's inertial impedance, accounting for 96% of the variance, when averaged across channels and trials. Furthermore, our measurement system was found to yield reliable estimates of stiffness, which had an average error of only 5.4% (standard deviation: 0.7%) when measured at three time points within the stance phase of locomotion, and compared to the independently determined stiffness values of the prosthetic foot. The mechatronic system and methods proposed in this study are capable of accurately estimating ankle stiffness during the foot-flat region of stance phase. Future work will focus on the implementation of this validated system in estimating human ankle impedance during the stance phase of walking.

An Enhanced Non-Coherent Pre-Filter Design for Tracking Error Estimation in GNSS Receivers.

PubMed

Luo, Zhibin; Ding, Jicheng; Zhao, Lin; Wu, Mouyan

2017-11-18

Tracking error estimation is of great importance in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers. Any inaccurate estimation for tracking error will decrease the signal tracking ability of signal tracking loops and the accuracies of position fixing, velocity determination, and timing. Tracking error estimation can be done by traditional discriminator, or Kalman filter-based pre-filter. The pre-filter can be divided into two categories: coherent and non-coherent. This paper focuses on the performance improvements of non-coherent pre-filter. Firstly, the signal characteristics of coherent and non-coherent integration-which are the basis of tracking error estimation-are analyzed in detail. After that, the probability distribution of estimation noise of four-quadrant arctangent (ATAN2) discriminator is derived according to the mathematical model of coherent integration. Secondly, the statistical property of observation noise of non-coherent pre-filter is studied through Monte Carlo simulation to set the observation noise variance matrix correctly. Thirdly, a simple fault detection and exclusion (FDE) structure is introduced to the non-coherent pre-filter design, and thus its effective working range for carrier phase error estimation extends from (-0.25 cycle, 0.25 cycle) to (-0.5 cycle, 0.5 cycle). Finally, the estimation accuracies of discriminator, coherent pre-filter, and the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter are evaluated comprehensively through the carefully designed experiment scenario. The pre-filter outperforms traditional discriminator in estimation accuracy. In a highly dynamic scenario, the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter provides accuracy improvements of 41.6%, 46.4%, and 50.36% for carrier phase error, carrier frequency error, and code phase error estimation, respectively, when compared with coherent pre-filter. The enhanced non-coherent pre-filter outperforms the coherent pre-filter in code phase error estimation when carrier-to-noise density ratio is less than 28.8 dB-Hz, in carrier frequency error estimation when carrier-to-noise density ratio is less than 20 dB-Hz, and in carrier phase error estimation when carrier-to-noise density belongs to (15, 23) dB-Hz ∪ (26, 50) dB-Hz.

Signal location using generalized linear constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Lloyd J.; Feldman, D. D.

1992-01-01

This report has presented a two-part method for estimating the directions of arrival of uncorrelated narrowband sources when there are arbitrary phase errors and angle independent gain errors. The signal steering vectors are estimated in the first part of the method; in the second part, the arrival directions are estimated. It should be noted that the second part of the method can be tailored to incorporate additional information about the nature of the phase errors. For example, if the phase errors are known to be caused solely by element misplacement, the element locations can be estimated concurrently with the DOA's by trying to match the theoretical steering vectors to the estimated ones. Simulation results suggest that, for general perturbation, the method can resolve closely spaced sources under conditions for which a standard high-resolution DOA method such as MUSIC fails.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment model for Legionnaires' disease: assessment of human exposures for selected spa outbreaks.

PubMed

Armstrong, Thomas W; Haas, Charles N

2007-08-01

Evaluation of a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Legionnaires' disease (LD) required Legionella exposure estimates for several well-documented LD outbreaks. Reports for a whirlpool spa and two natural spring spa outbreaks provided data for the exposure assessment, as well as rates of infection and mortality. Exposure estimates for the whirlpool spa outbreak employed aerosol generation, water composition, exposure duration data, and building ventilation parameters with a two-zone model. Estimates for the natural hot springs outbreaks used bacterial water to air partitioning coefficients and exposure duration information. The air concentration and dose calculations used input parameter distributions with Monte Carlo simulations to estimate exposures as probability distributions. The assessment considered two sets of assumptions about the transfer of Legionella from the water phase to the aerosol emitted from the whirlpool spa. The estimated air concentration near the whirlpool spa was 5 to 18 colony forming units per cubic meter (CFU/m(3)) and 50 to 180 CFU/m(3) for each of the alternate assumptions. The estimated 95th percentile ranges of Legionella dose for workers within 15 m of the whirlpool spa were 0.13-3.4 CFU and 1.3-34.5 CFU, respectively. The modeling for hot springs Spas 1 and 2 resulted in estimated arithmetic mean air concentrations of 360 and 17 CFU/m(3), respectively, and 95 percentile ranges for Legionella dose of 28 to 67 CFU and 1.1 to 3.7 CFU, respectively. The Legionella air concentration estimates fall in the range of limited reports on air concentrations of Legionella (0.33 to 190 CFU/m(3)) near showers, aerated faucets, and baths during filling with Legionella-contaminated water. These measurements may provide some indication that the estimates are of a reasonable magnitude, but they do not clarify the exposure estimates accuracy, since they were not obtained during LD outbreaks. Further research to improve the data used for the Legionella exposure assessment would strengthen the results. Several of the primary additional data needs include improved data for bacterial water to air partitioning coefficients, better accounting of time-activity-distance patterns and exposure potential in outbreak reports, and data for Legionella-containing aerosol viability decay instead of loss of capability for growth in culture.

Robust Diagnosis Method Based on Parameter Estimation for an Interturn Short-Circuit Fault in Multipole PMSM under High-Speed Operation.

PubMed

Lee, Jewon; Moon, Seokbae; Jeong, Hyeyun; Kim, Sang Woo

2015-11-20

This paper proposes a diagnosis method for a multipole permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) under an interturn short circuit fault. Previous works in this area have suffered from the uncertainties of the PMSM parameters, which can lead to misdiagnosis. The proposed method estimates the q-axis inductance (Lq) of the faulty PMSM to solve this problem. The proposed method also estimates the faulty phase and the value of G, which serves as an index of the severity of the fault. The q-axis current is used to estimate the faulty phase, the values of G and Lq. For this reason, two open-loop observers and an optimization method based on a particle-swarm are implemented. The q-axis current of a healthy PMSM is estimated by the open-loop observer with the parameters of a healthy PMSM. The Lq estimation significantly compensates for the estimation errors in high-speed operation. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can estimate the faulty phase, G, and Lq besides exhibiting robustness against parameter uncertainties.

Collective odor source estimation and search in time-variant airflow environments using mobile robots.

PubMed

Meng, Qing-Hao; Yang, Wei-Xing; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Ming

2011-01-01

This paper addresses the collective odor source localization (OSL) problem in a time-varying airflow environment using mobile robots. A novel OSL methodology which combines odor-source probability estimation and multiple robots' search is proposed. The estimation phase consists of two steps: firstly, the separate probability-distribution map of odor source is estimated via Bayesian rules and fuzzy inference based on a single robot's detection events; secondly, the separate maps estimated by different robots at different times are fused into a combined map by way of distance based superposition. The multi-robot search behaviors are coordinated via a particle swarm optimization algorithm, where the estimated odor-source probability distribution is used to express the fitness functions. In the process of OSL, the estimation phase provides the prior knowledge for the searching while the searching verifies the estimation results, and both phases are implemented iteratively. The results of simulations for large-scale advection-diffusion plume environments and experiments using real robots in an indoor airflow environment validate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed OSL method.

Collective Odor Source Estimation and Search in Time-Variant Airflow Environments Using Mobile Robots

PubMed Central

Meng, Qing-Hao; Yang, Wei-Xing; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Ming

2011-01-01

This paper addresses the collective odor source localization (OSL) problem in a time-varying airflow environment using mobile robots. A novel OSL methodology which combines odor-source probability estimation and multiple robots’ search is proposed. The estimation phase consists of two steps: firstly, the separate probability-distribution map of odor source is estimated via Bayesian rules and fuzzy inference based on a single robot’s detection events; secondly, the separate maps estimated by different robots at different times are fused into a combined map by way of distance based superposition. The multi-robot search behaviors are coordinated via a particle swarm optimization algorithm, where the estimated odor-source probability distribution is used to express the fitness functions. In the process of OSL, the estimation phase provides the prior knowledge for the searching while the searching verifies the estimation results, and both phases are implemented iteratively. The results of simulations for large-scale advection–diffusion plume environments and experiments using real robots in an indoor airflow environment validate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed OSL method. PMID:22346650

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

PubMed

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantum-classical boundary for precision optical phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birchall, Patrick M.; O'Brien, Jeremy L.; Matthews, Jonathan C. F.; Cable, Hugo

2017-12-01

Understanding the fundamental limits on the precision to which an optical phase can be estimated is of key interest for many investigative techniques utilized across science and technology. We study the estimation of a fixed optical phase shift due to a sample which has an associated optical loss, and compare phase estimation strategies using classical and nonclassical probe states. These comparisons are based on the attainable (quantum) Fisher information calculated per number of photons absorbed or scattered by the sample throughout the sensing process. We find that for a given number of incident photons upon the unknown phase, nonclassical techniques in principle provide less than a 20 % reduction in root-mean-square error (RMSE) in comparison with ideal classical techniques in multipass optical setups. Using classical techniques in a different optical setup that we analyze, which incorporates additional stages of interference during the sensing process, the achievable reduction in RMSE afforded by nonclassical techniques falls to only ≃4 % . We explain how these conclusions change when nonclassical techniques are compared to classical probe states in nonideal multipass optical setups, with additional photon losses due to the measurement apparatus.

Optimized parameter estimation in the presence of collective phase noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altenburg, Sanah; Wölk, Sabine; Tóth, Géza; Gühne, Otfried

2016-11-01

We investigate phase and frequency estimation with different measurement strategies under the effect of collective phase noise. First, we consider the standard linear estimation scheme and present an experimentally realizable optimization of the initial probe states by collective rotations. We identify the optimal rotation angle for different measurement times. Second, we show that subshot noise sensitivity—up to the Heisenberg limit—can be reached in presence of collective phase noise by using differential interferometry, where one part of the system is used to monitor the noise. For this, not only Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger states but also symmetric Dicke states are suitable. We investigate the optimal splitting for a general symmetric Dicke state at both inputs and discuss possible experimental realizations of differential interferometry.

Estimation of Phase in Fringe Projection Technique Using High-order Instantaneous Moments Based Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rajshekhar, G.; Rastogi, Pramod

2010-04-01

For three-dimensional (3D) shape measurement using fringe projection techniques, the information about the 3D shape of an object is encoded in the phase of a recorded fringe pattern. The paper proposes a high-order instantaneous moments based method to estimate phase from a single fringe pattern in fringe projection. The proposed method works by approximating the phase as a piece-wise polynomial and subsequently determining the polynomial coefficients using high-order instantaneous moments to construct the polynomial phase. Simulation results are presented to show the method's potential.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2012-01-01

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Bioaccessible arsenic in the home environment in southwest England.

PubMed

Rieuwerts, J S; Searle, P; Buck, R

2006-12-01

Samples of household dust and garden soil were collected from twenty households in the vicinity of an ex-mining site in southwest England and from nine households in a control village. All samples were analysed by ICP-MS for pseudo-total arsenic (As) concentrations and the results show clearly elevated levels, with maximum As concentrations of 486 microg g(-1) in housedusts and 471 microg g(-1) in garden soils (and mean concentrations of 149 microg g(-1) and 262 microg g(-1), respectively). Arsenic concentrations in all samples from the mining area exceeded the UK Soil Guideline Value (SGV) of 20 microg g(-1). No significant correlation was observed between garden soil and housedust As concentrations. Bioaccessible As concentrations were determined in a small subset of samples using the Physiologically Based Extraction Test (PBET). For the stomach phase of the PBET, bioaccessibility percentages of 10-20% were generally recorded. Higher percentages (generally 30-45%) were recorded in the intestine phases with a maximum value (for one of the housedusts) of 59%. Data from the mining area were used, together with default values for soil ingestion rates and infant body weights from the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model, to derive estimates of As intake for infants and small children (0-6 years old). Dose estimates of up to 3.53 microg kg(-1) bw day(-1) for housedusts and 2.43 microg kg(-1) bw day(-1) for garden soils were calculated, compared to the index dose used for the derivation of the SGV of 0.3 microg kg(-1) bw day(-1) (based on health risk assessments). The index dose was exceeded by 75% (18 out of 24) of the estimated As doses that were calculated for children aged 0-6 years, a group which is particularly at risk from exposure via soil and dust ingestion. The results of the present study support the concerns expressed by previous authors about the significant As contamination in southwest England and the potential implications for human health.

Weight maintenance and additional weight loss with liraglutide after low-calorie-diet-induced weight loss: the SCALE Maintenance randomized study.

PubMed

Wadden, T A; Hollander, P; Klein, S; Niswender, K; Woo, V; Hale, P M; Aronne, L

2013-11-01

Liraglutide, a once-daily human glucagon-like peptide-1 analog, induced clinically meaningful weight loss in a phase 2 study in obese individuals without diabetes. The present randomized phase 3 trial assessed the efficacy of liraglutide in maintaining weight loss achieved with a low-calorie diet (LCD). Obese/overweight participants (≥18 years, body mass index ≥30 kg m(-2) or ≥27 kg m(-2) with comorbidities) who lost ≥5% of initial weight during a LCD run-in were randomly assigned to liraglutide 3.0 mg per day or placebo (subcutaneous administration) for 56 weeks. Diet and exercise counseling were provided throughout the trial. Co-primary end points were percentage weight change from randomization, the proportion of participants that maintained the initial ≥5% weight loss, and the proportion that lost ≥5% of randomization weight (intention-to-treat analysis). ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00781937. Participants (n=422) lost a mean 6.0% (s.d. 0.9) of screening weight during run-in. From randomization to week 56, weight decreased an additional mean 6.2% (s.d. 7.3) with liraglutide and 0.2% (s.d. 7.0) with placebo (estimated difference -6.1% (95% class intervals -7.5 to -4.6), P<0.0001). More participants receiving liraglutide (81.4%) maintained the ≥5% run-in weight loss, compared with those receiving placebo (48.9%) (estimated odds ratio 4.8 (3.0; 7.7), P<0.0001), and 50.5% versus 21.8% of participants lost ≥5% of randomization weight (estimated odds ratio 3.9 (2.4; 6.1), P<0.0001). Liraglutide produced small but statistically significant improvements in several cardiometabolic risk factors compared with placebo. Gastrointestinal (GI) disorders were reported more frequently with liraglutide than placebo, but most events were transient, and mild or moderate in severity. Liraglutide, with diet and exercise, maintained weight loss achieved by caloric restriction and induced further weight loss over 56 weeks. Improvements in some cardiovascular disease-risk factors were also observed. Liraglutide, prescribed as 3.0 mg per day, holds promise for improving the maintenance of lost weight.

Long working hours may increase risk of coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Kang, Mo-Yeol; Cho, Soo-Hun; Yoo, Min-Sang; Kim, Taeshik; Hong, Yun-Chul

2014-11-01

To evaluate the association between long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS) in Korean adults. This study evaluated adult participants in Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey IV (2007-2009). After inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied, the final sample size for this study model was 8,350. Subjects were asked about working hours and health status. Participants also completed physical examinations and biochemical measurement necessary for estimation of FRS. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between working hours and 10-year risk for CHD estimated by FRS. Compared to those who work 31-40 hr, significantly higher 10-year risk was estimated among subjects working longer hours. As working hours increased, odds ratio (OR) for upper 10 percent of estimated 10-year risk for CHD was increased up to 1.94. Long working hours are significantly related to risk of coronary heart disease. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

High-resolution correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, D. J.

2007-09-01

In the basic correlation process a sequence of time-lag-indexed correlation coefficients are computed as the inner or dot product of segments of two signals. The time-lag(s) for which the magnitude of the correlation coefficient sequence is maximized is the estimated relative time delay of the two signals. For discrete sampled signals, the delay estimated in this manner is quantized with the same relative accuracy as the clock used in sampling the signals. In addition, the correlation coefficients are real if the input signals are real. There have been many methods proposed to estimate signal delay to more accuracy than the sample interval of the digitizer clock, with some success. These methods include interpolation of the correlation coefficients, estimation of the signal delay from the group delay function, and beam forming techniques, such as the MUSIC algorithm. For spectral estimation, techniques based on phase differentiation have been popular, but these techniques have apparently not been applied to the correlation problem . We propose a phase based delay estimation method (PBDEM) based on the phase of the correlation function that provides a significant improvement of the accuracy of time delay estimation. In the process, the standard correlation function is first calculated. A time lag error function is then calculated from the correlation phase and is used to interpolate the correlation function. The signal delay is shown to be accurately estimated as the zero crossing of the correlation phase near the index of the peak correlation magnitude. This process is nearly as fast as the conventional correlation function on which it is based. For real valued signals, a simple modification is provided, which results in the same correlation accuracy as is obtained for complex valued signals.

Light-based Modeling and Control of Circadian Rhythm

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-29

the foundation of the full research. 1. Circadian phase estimation and control: Demonstrate the applicability of the adaptive notch filter (ANF) to...the adaptive notch filter (ANF) to extract circadian phase from noisy Drosophila locomotive activity measurements and the efficacy of using the ANF...full research. 1. Circadian phase estimation and control: Demonstrate the applicability of the adaptive notch filter (ANF) to extract circadian

COMMUNITY-RANDOMIZED INTERVENTION TRIAL WITH UV DISINFECTION FOR ESTIMATING THE RISK OF PEDIATRIC ILLNESS FROM MUNICIPAL GROUNDWATER CONSUMPTION

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of this study is to estimate the risk of childhood febrile and gastrointestinal illnesses associated with drinking municipal water from a groundwater source. The risk estimate will be partitioned into two separate components— illness attributable to contaminated...

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probabi...

Assistive device use and mobility-related factors among adults aged≥65years.

PubMed

West, Bethany A; Bhat, Geeta; Stevens, Judy; Bergen, Gwen

2015-12-01

Examining how assistive device (cane, walker) use relates to other mobility factors can provide insight into older adults' future mobility needs. Data come from the Second Injury Control and Risk Survey, Phase 2 (ICARIS2-P2), conducted from March 2007 to May 2008. Prevalence estimates were calculated for older adults (aged ≥65) and multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between assistive device use and mobility-related characteristics. Compared with non-users, assistive device users were more likely to report a recent fall (AOR 12.0; 95% CI 4.9-29.3), limit walking outside due to concerns about falling (AOR 7.1; 95% CI 2.6-19.1), be unable to walk outside for 10min without resting (AOR 3.3; 95% CI 1.1-9.3), and be no longer driving (AOR 6.7; 95% CI 2.0-22.3). Assistive device users have limited mobility and an increased risk for fall injury compared with non-users. Effective fall prevention interventions, and innovative transportation options, are needed to protect the mobility of this high-risk group. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

Ambiguity resolving based on cosine property of phase differences for 3D source localization with uniform circular array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Wang, Shuhong; Liu, Zhen; Wei, Xizhang

2017-07-01

Localization of a source whose half-wavelength is smaller than the array aperture would suffer from serious phase ambiguity problem, which also appears in recently proposed phase-based algorithms. In this paper, by using the centro-symmetry of fixed uniform circular array (UCA) with even number of sensors, the source's angles and range can be decoupled and a novel ambiguity resolving approach is addressed for phase-based algorithms of source's 3-D localization (azimuth angle, elevation angle, and range). In the proposed method, by using the cosine property of unambiguous phase differences, ambiguity searching and actual-value matching are first employed to obtain actual phase differences and corresponding source's angles. Then, the unambiguous angles are utilized to estimate the source's range based on a one dimension multiple signal classification (1-D MUSIC) estimator. Finally, simulation experiments investigate the influence of step size in search and SNR on performance of ambiguity resolution and demonstrate the satisfactory estimation performance of the proposed method.

Efficient visual grasping alignment for cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicewarner, Keith E.; Kelley, Robert B.

1992-01-01

Monocular information from a gripper-mounted camera is used to servo the robot gripper to grasp a cylinder. The fundamental concept for rapid pose estimation is to reduce the amount of information that needs to be processed during each vision update interval. The grasping procedure is divided into four phases: learn, recognition, alignment, and approach. In the learn phase, a cylinder is placed in the gripper and the pose estimate is stored and later used as the servo target. This is performed once as a calibration step. The recognition phase verifies the presence of a cylinder in the camera field of view. An initial pose estimate is computed and uncluttered scan regions are selected. The radius of the cylinder is estimated by moving the robot a fixed distance toward the cylinder and observing the change in the image. The alignment phase processes only the scan regions obtained previously. Rapid pose estimates are used to align the robot with the cylinder at a fixed distance from it. The relative motion of the cylinder is used to generate an extrapolated pose-based trajectory for the robot controller. The approach phase guides the robot gripper to a grasping position. The cylinder can be grasped with a minimal reaction force and torque when only rough global pose information is initially available.

Efficient visual grasping alignment for cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicewarner, Keith E.; Kelley, Robert B.

1991-01-01

Monocular information from a gripper-mounted camera is used to servo the robot gripper to grasp a cylinder. The fundamental concept for rapid pose estimation is to reduce the amount of information that needs to be processed during each vision update interval. The grasping procedure is divided into four phases: learn, recognition, alignment, and approach. In the learn phase, a cylinder is placed in the gripper and the pose estimate is stored and later used as the servo target. This is performed once as a calibration step. The recognition phase verifies the presence of a cylinder in the camera field of view. An initial pose estimate is computed and uncluttered scan regions are selected. The radius of the cylinder is estimated by moving the robot a fixed distance toward the cylinder and observing the change in the image. The alignment phase processes only the scan regions obtained previously. Rapid pose estimates are used to align the robot with the cylinder at a fixed distance from it. The relative motion of the cylinder is used to generate an extrapolated pose-based trajectory for the robot controller. The approach phase guides the robot gripper to a grasping position. The cylinder can be grasped with a minimal reaction force and torque when only rough global pose information is initially available.

Tracking Objects with Networked Scattered Directional Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plarre, Kurt; Kumar, P. R.

2007-12-01

We study the problem of object tracking using highly directional sensors—sensors whose field of vision is a line or a line segment. A network of such sensors monitors a certain region of the plane. Sporadically, objects moving in straight lines and at a constant speed cross the region. A sensor detects an object when it crosses its line of sight, and records the time of the detection. No distance or angle measurements are available. The task of the sensors is to estimate the directions and speeds of the objects, and the sensor lines, which are unknown a priori. This estimation problem involves the minimization of a highly nonconvex cost function. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce an algorithm, which we call "adaptive basis algorithm." This algorithm is divided into three phases: in the first phase, the algorithm is initialized using data from six sensors and four objects; in the second phase, the estimates are updated as data from more sensors and objects are incorporated. The third phase is an optional coordinated transformation. The estimation is done in an "ad-hoc" coordinate system, which we call "adaptive coordinate system." When more information is available, for example, the location of six sensors, the estimates can be transformed to the "real-world" coordinate system. This constitutes the third phase.

Improved performance of a digital phase-locked loop combined with a frequency/frequency-rate estimator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mileant, A.; Simon, M.

1986-01-01

When a digital phase-locked loop with a long loop update time tracks a signal with high Doppler, the demodualtion losses due to frequency mismatch can become very significant. One way of reducing these Doppler-related losses is to compensate for the Doppler effect using some kind of frequency-rate estimator. The performance of the fixed-window least-squares estimator and the Kalman filter is investigated; several Doppler compensating techniques are proposed. It is shown that the variance of the frequency estimator can be made as small as desired, and with this, the Doppler effect can be effectively compensated. The remaining demodulation losses due to phase jitter in the loop can be less than 0.1 dB.

Optimal phase estimation with arbitrary a priori knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demkowicz-Dobrzanski, Rafal

2011-06-15

The optimal-phase estimation strategy is derived when partial a priori knowledge on the estimated phase is available. The solution is found with the help of the most famous result from the entanglement theory: the positive partial transpose criterion. The structure of the optimal measurements, estimators, and the optimal probe states is analyzed. This Rapid Communication provides a unified framework bridging the gap in the literature on the subject which until now dealt almost exclusively with two extreme cases: almost perfect knowledge (local approach based on Fisher information) and no a priori knowledge (global approach based on covariant measurements). Special attentionmore » is paid to a natural a priori probability distribution arising from a diffusion process.« less

Consistently estimating absolute risk difference when translating evidence to jurisdictions of interest.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Coory, Michael; Willan, Andrew R

2011-02-01

Economic analysis and assessment of net clinical benefit often requires estimation of absolute risk difference (ARD) for binary outcomes (e.g. survival, response, disease progression) given baseline epidemiological risk in a jurisdiction of interest and trial evidence of treatment effects. Typically, the assumption is made that relative treatment effects are constant across baseline risk, in which case relative risk (RR) or odds ratios (OR) could be applied to estimate ARD. The objective of this article is to establish whether such use of RR or OR allows consistent estimates of ARD. ARD is calculated from alternative framing of effects (e.g. mortality vs survival) applying standard methods for translating evidence with RR and OR. For RR, the RR is applied to baseline risk in the jurisdiction to estimate treatment risk; for OR, the baseline risk is converted to odds, the OR applied and the resulting treatment odds converted back to risk. ARD is shown to be consistently estimated with OR but changes with framing of effects using RR wherever there is a treatment effect and epidemiological risk differs from trial risk. Additionally, in indirect comparisons, ARD is shown to be consistently estimated with OR, while calculation with RR allows inconsistency, with alternative framing of effects in the direction, let alone the extent, of ARD. OR ensures consistent calculation of ARD in translating evidence from trial settings and across trials in direct and indirect comparisons, avoiding inconsistencies from RR with alternative outcome framing and associated biases. These findings are critical for consistently translating evidence to inform economic analysis and assessment of net clinical benefit, as translation of evidence is proposed precisely where the advantages of OR over RR arise.

131I-Anti-CD45 Antibody Plus Busulfan and Cyclophosphamide before Allogeneic Hematophoietic Cell Transplantation for Treatment of Acute Myeloid Leukemia in First Remission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pagel, John M.; Appelbaum, Frederick R.; Eary, Janet F.

2006-03-01

In an attempt to improve outcomes for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), we conducted a Phase I/II study in which targeted irradiation delivered by 131I-anti-CD45 antibody was combined with targeted busulfan (BU; area-under-curve, 600-900 ng/ml) and cyclophosphamide (CY; 120 mg/kg). Fifty-two of 59 patients (88%) receiving a trace 131I-labeled dose of 0.5 mg/kg anti-CD45 murine antibody had higher estimated absorbed radiation in bone marrow and spleen than in any other organ. Forty-six patients were treated with 102-298 mCi 131I delivering an estimated 5.3-19 (mean 11.3) Gy to marrow, 17-72 (mean 29.7) Gy tomore » spleen, and 3.5 Gy (n=4) to 5.25 Gy (n=42) to the liver. The estimated 3-year non-relapse mortality and disease-free survival (DFS) were 21% and 61%, respectively. These results were compared to those from 509 similar International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry patients transplanted using BU/CY alone. After adjusting for differences in age and cytogenetics-risk, the hazard of mortality among all antibody-treated patients was 0.65 times that of the Registry patients (95% CI 0.39-1.08; p=.09). The addition of targeted hematopoietic irradiation to conventional BU/CY is feasible and well tolerated, and Phase II results are sufficiently encouraging to warrant further study.« less

A Revised Earthquake Catalogue for South Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panzera, Francesco; Zechar, J. Douglas; Vogfjörd, Kristín S.; Eberhard, David A. J.

2016-01-01

In 1991, a new seismic monitoring network named SIL was started in Iceland with a digital seismic system and automatic operation. The system is equipped with software that reports the automatic location and magnitude of earthquakes, usually within 1-2 min of their occurrence. Normally, automatic locations are manually checked and re-estimated with corrected phase picks, but locations are subject to random errors and systematic biases. In this article, we consider the quality of the catalogue and produce a revised catalogue for South Iceland, the area with the highest seismic risk in Iceland. We explore the effects of filtering events using some common recommendations based on network geometry and station spacing and, as an alternative, filtering based on a multivariate analysis that identifies outliers in the hypocentre error distribution. We identify and remove quarry blasts, and we re-estimate the magnitude of many events. This revised catalogue which we consider to be filtered, cleaned, and corrected should be valuable for building future seismicity models and for assessing seismic hazard and risk. We present a comparative seismicity analysis using the original and revised catalogues: we report characteristics of South Iceland seismicity in terms of b value and magnitude of completeness. Our work demonstrates the importance of carefully checking an earthquake catalogue before proceeding with seismicity analysis.

The prevalence of dementia with Lewy bodies in a rural area of China.

PubMed

Yue, Wei; Wang, Xiao-Dan; Shi, Zhihong; Wang, Yajing; Liu, Shuai; Liu, Shuling; Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Yajing; Lu, Hui; Su, Wenhua; Ji, Yong

2016-08-01

Data on the prevalence of dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) in China are limited. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of DLB in individuals aged 60 years and older and to analyze the associated risk factors and clinical features of DLB. We conducted a cross-sectional, two-phase, door-to-door, population-based study that included 5542 participants aged at least 60 years who resided in Ji County. In phase I of the study, we used the Mini-Mental State Examination, the Clinical Dementia Rating scale, and the Activities of Daily Living scale to screen for dementia. Any person who was suspected of having dementia underwent a clinical examination, blood tests, and a neuroimaging examination to confirm the diagnosis of dementia. In phase II of the study, we further screened eligible participants for DLB using consensus guidelines for the clinical and pathologic diagnosis of DLB. The overall prevalence of DLB in the total population of 5542 study participants was 1.05%; the prevalence of DLB was 10.10% in the population with dementia. Compared to individuals without cognitive impairment, patients with DLB were less engaged in social activities. Having fewer than 5 years of formal education might be a risk factor for DLB. The three core symptoms of DLB - fluctuating cognition, visual hallucinations, and Parkinsonism - were observed in 60.34%, 68.97%, and 63.79% of patients with DLB, respectively. Our study provides the first information of the prevalence of DLB in a rural area of China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nutrition and renal stone disease in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zerwekh, Joseph E.

2002-01-01

There is a growing body of evidence from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Russian space program showing that humans exposed to the microgravity environment of space have a greater risk for developing renal stones. Increased bone resorption and the attendant hypercalciuria and hyperphosphaturia contribute significantly to raising the urinary state of saturation with respect to the calcium salts, namely calcium oxalate and calcium phosphate. In addition, other environmental and dietary factors may adversely affect urine composition and increase stone formation risk during space flight. For example, reductions in urinary volume, pH, and citrate contribute to raising stone formation risk. In addition to raising the risk for calcium stone formation, this metabolic profile is conducive to the formation of uric acid stones. Although observations to date have suggested that there may actually be a reduced food intake during the early phase of flight, crew members on longer-duration flights may increase food intake and be at increased risk for stone formation. Taken together, these findings support the use of nutritional recommendations for crew members that would serve to reduce the stone-forming propensity of the urinary environment. Pharmacologic intervention should be directed at raising urinary volumes, diminishing bone losses, and preventing reductions in urinary pH and citrate. Success in reducing the risk for stone formation in astronauts would also be of potential major benefit to the estimated 20 million Americans with nephrolithiasis.

Estimation of risk management effects on revenue and purchased feed costs on US dairy farms.

PubMed

Hadrich, Joleen C; Johnson, Kamina K

2015-09-01

Variations in milk and feed prices directly affect dairy farm risk management decisions. This research used data from the 2010 US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Resource Management Surveys phase III dairy survey to examine how risk management tools affected revenues and expenses across US dairy farms. The survey was sent to 26 states and collected information on costs and returns to individual dairy farms. This research used the information from milk sales, crops sales, feed expenses, and farm and operator characteristics, as well as the use of risk management tools. Matching methodology was used to evaluate the effect of 5 independent risk management tools on revenues and expenses: selling milk to a cooperative, using a commodity contract to sell grain, feeding homegrown forage at a basic and intensive level, and use of a nutritionist. Results showed that dairy farms located in the Midwest and East benefit from selling milk to a cooperative and using commodity contracts to sell grain. Across the United States, using a nutritionist increased total feed costs, whereas a feeding program that included more than 65% homegrown forages decreased total feed costs. Results point to benefits from educational programming on risk management tools that are region specific rather than a broad generalization to all US dairy farmers. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Hao; Zhang, Guifu; Zhao, Kun

A hybrid method of combining linear programming (LP) and physical constraints is developed to estimate specific differential phase (K DP) and to improve rain estimation. Moreover, the hybrid K DP estimator and the existing estimators of LP, least squares fitting, and a self-consistent relation of polarimetric radar variables are evaluated and compared using simulated data. Our simulation results indicate the new estimator's superiority, particularly in regions where backscattering phase (δ hv) dominates. Further, a quantitative comparison between auto-weather-station rain-gauge observations and K DP-based radar rain estimates for a Meiyu event also demonstrate the superiority of the hybrid K DP estimatormore » over existing methods.« less