Developing a Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Forecasting: The Lake Michigan Pilot

EPA Science Inventory

Recent multi-party efforts to coordinate modeling activities that support ecosystem management decision-making in the Great Lakes have resulted in the recommendation to convene an interagency working group that will develop a pilot approach for Lake Michigan. The process will br...

Helicopter simulation: Making it work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Payne, Barry

1992-01-01

The opportunities for improved training and checking by using helicopter simulators are greater than they are for airplane pilot training. Simulators permit the safe creation of training environments that are conducive to the development of pilot decision-making, situational awareness, and cockpit management. This paper defines specific attributes required in a simulator to meet a typical helicopter operator's training and checking objectives.

Model for multi-stand management based on structural attributes of individual stands

Treesearch

G.W. Miller; J. Sullivan

1997-01-01

A growing interest in managing forest ecosystems calls for decision models that take into account attribute goals for large forest areas while continuing to recognize the individual stand as a basic unit of forest management. A dynamic, nonlinear forest management model is described that schedules silvicultural treatments for individual stands that are linked by multi-...

Development of the Attributed Dignity Scale.

PubMed

Jacelon, Cynthia S; Dixon, Jane; Knafl, Kathleen A

2009-07-01

A sequential, multi-method approach to instrument development beginning with concept analysis, followed by (a) item generation from qualitative data, (b) review of items by expert and lay person panels, (c) cognitive appraisal interviews, (d) pilot testing, and (e) evaluating construct validity was used to develop a measure of attributed dignity in older adults. The resulting positively scored, 23-item scale has three dimensions: Self-Value, Behavioral Respect-Self, and Behavioral Respect-Others. Item-total correlations in the pilot study ranged from 0.39 to 0.85. Correlations between the Attributed Dignity Scale (ADS) and both Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale (0.17) and Crowne and Marlowe's Social Desirability Scale (0.36) were modest and in the expected direction, indicating attributed dignity is a related but independent concept. Next steps include testing the ADS with a larger sample to complete factor analysis, test-retest stability, and further study of the relationships between attributed dignity and other concepts.

Pilots' Information Needs and Strategies for Operating in Icing Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence N.; Hansman, R. John

2003-01-01

Pilot current use of icing information, pilot encounters and strategies for dealing with in-flight aircraft structural icing situations, and desired attributes of new icing information systems were investigated through a survey of pilots of several operational categories. The survey identified important information elements and fiequently used information paths for obtaining icing-related information. Free- response questions solicited descriptions of significant , icing encounters, and probed key icing-related decision and information criteria. Results indicated the information needs for the horizontal and vertical location of icing conditions and the identification of icing-free zones.

Priority setting for the prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases: multi-criteria decision analysis in four eastern Mediterranean countries.

PubMed

Ghandour, Rula; Shoaibi, Azza; Khatib, Rana; Abu Rmeileh, Niveen; Unal, Belgin; Sözmen, Kaan; Kılıç, Bülent; Fouad, Fouad; Al Ali, Radwan; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Aissi, Wafa; Ahmad, Balsam; Capewell, Simon; Critchley, Julia; Husseini, Abdullatif

2015-01-01

To explore the feasibility of using a simple multi-criteria decision analysis method with policy makers/key stakeholders to prioritize cardiovascular disease (CVD) policies in four Mediterranean countries: Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. A simple multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method was piloted. A mixed methods study was used to identify a preliminary list of policy options in each country. These policies were rated by different policymakers/stakeholders against pre-identified criteria to generate a priority score for each policy and then rank the policies. Twenty-five different policies were rated in the four countries to create a country-specific list of CVD prevention and control policies. The response rate was 100% in each country. The top policies were mostly population level interventions and health systems' level policies. Successful collaboration between policy makers/stakeholders and researchers was established in this small pilot study. MCDA appeared to be feasible and effective. Future applications should aim to engage a larger, representative sample of policy makers, especially from outside the health sector. Weighting the selected criteria might also be assessed.

An interval-valued 2-tuple linguistic group decision-making model based on the Choquet integral operator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bingsheng; Fu, Meiqing; Zhang, Shuibo; Xue, Bin; Zhou, Qi; Zhang, Shiruo

2018-01-01

The Choquet integral (IL) operator is an effective approach for handling interdependence among decision attributes in complex decision-making problems. However, the fuzzy measures of attributes and attribute sets required by IL are difficult to achieve directly, which limits the application of IL. This paper proposes a new method for determining fuzzy measures of attributes by extending Marichal's concept of entropy for fuzzy measure. To well represent the assessment information, interval-valued 2-tuple linguistic context is utilised to represent information. Then, we propose a Choquet integral operator in an interval-valued 2-tuple linguistic environment, which can effectively handle the correlation between attributes. In addition, we apply these methods to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems. The feasibility and validity of the proposed operator is demonstrated by comparisons with other models in illustrative example part.

Research of Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique for Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, Dodi; Arisandi, Diki; Usman, Ari; Irwan, Dedy; Rahim, Robbi

2017-12-01

One of the roles of decision support system is that it can assist the decision maker in obtaining the appropriate alternative with the desired criteria, one of the methods that could apply for the decision maker is SMART method with multicriteria decision making. This multi-criteria decision-making theory has meaning where every alternative has criteria and has value and weight, and the author uses this approach to facilitate decision making with a compelling case. The problems discussed in this paper are classified into problems of a variety Multiobjective (multiple goals to be accomplished) and multicriteria (many of the decisive criteria in reaching such decisions).

Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

Caring Decisions: The Development of a Written Resource for Parents Facing End-of-Life Decisions

PubMed Central

Gillam, Lynn; Hynson, Jenny; Sullivan, Jane; Cossich, Mary; Wilkinson, Dominic

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: Written resources in adult intensive care have been shown to benefit families facing end of life (EoL) decisions. There are few resources for parents making EoL decisions for their child and no existing resources addressing ethical issues. The Caring Decisions handbook and website were developed to fill these gaps. Aim: We discuss the development of the resources, modification after reviewer feedback and findings from initial pilot implementation. Design: A targeted literature review-to identify resources and factors that impact on parental EoL decision-making; development phase-guided by the literature and the researchers' expertise; consultation process-comprised a multi-disciplinary panel of experts and parents; pilot evaluation study-hard-copy handbook was distributed as part of routine care at an Australian Children's Hospital. Setting/Participants: Twelve experts and parents formed the consultation panel. Eight parents of children with life-limiting conditions and clinicians were interviewed in the pilot study. Results: Numerous factors supporting/impeding EoL decisions were identified. Caring Decisions addressed issues identified in the literature and by the multidisciplinary research team. The consultation panel provided overwhelmingly positive feedback. Pilot study parents found the resources helpful and comforting. Most clinicians viewed the resources as very beneficial to parents and identified them as ideal for training purposes. Conclusions: The development of the resources addressed many of the gaps in existing resources. The consultation process and the pilot study suggest these resources could be of significant benefit to parents and clinicians. PMID:26418215

Podium: Ranking Data Using Mixed-Initiative Visual Analytics.

PubMed

Wall, Emily; Das, Subhajit; Chawla, Ravish; Kalidindi, Bharath; Brown, Eli T; Endert, Alex

2018-01-01

People often rank and order data points as a vital part of making decisions. Multi-attribute ranking systems are a common tool used to make these data-driven decisions. Such systems often take the form of a table-based visualization in which users assign weights to the attributes representing the quantifiable importance of each attribute to a decision, which the system then uses to compute a ranking of the data. However, these systems assume that users are able to quantify their conceptual understanding of how important particular attributes are to a decision. This is not always easy or even possible for users to do. Rather, people often have a more holistic understanding of the data. They form opinions that data point A is better than data point B but do not necessarily know which attributes are important. To address these challenges, we present a visual analytic application to help people rank multi-variate data points. We developed a prototype system, Podium, that allows users to drag rows in the table to rank order data points based on their perception of the relative value of the data. Podium then infers a weighting model using Ranking SVM that satisfies the user's data preferences as closely as possible. Whereas past systems help users understand the relationships between data points based on changes to attribute weights, our approach helps users to understand the attributes that might inform their understanding of the data. We present two usage scenarios to describe some of the potential uses of our proposed technique: (1) understanding which attributes contribute to a user's subjective preferences for data, and (2) deconstructing attributes of importance for existing rankings. Our proposed approach makes powerful machine learning techniques more usable to those who may not have expertise in these areas.

Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J.; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J.; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W. Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as “the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.” However, the strategy does not specify how “essential information” is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being “essential”. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of “essential information” for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system. PMID:24489748

Prospect Theory and Interval-Valued Hesitant Set for Safety Evacuation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kou, Meng; Lu, Na

2018-01-01

The study applies the research results of prospect theory and multi attribute decision making theory, combined with the complexity, uncertainty and multifactor influence of the underground mine fire system and takes the decision makers’ psychological behavior of emotion and intuition into full account to establish the intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method that is based on the prospect theory. The model established by this method can explain the decision maker’s safety evacuation decision behavior in the complex system of underground mine fire due to the uncertainty of the environment, imperfection of the information and human psychological behavior and other factors.

Implementing interactive decision support: A case for combining cyberinfrastructure, data fusion, and social process to mobilize scientific knowledge in sustainability problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.

2014-12-01

Geosciences are becoming increasingly data intensive, particularly in relation to sustainability problems, which are multi-dimensional, weakly structured and characterized by high levels of uncertainty. In the case of complex resource management problems, the challenge is to extract meaningful information from data and make sense of it. Simultaneously, scientific knowledge alone is insufficient to change practice. Creating tools, and group decision support processes for end users to interact with data are key challenges to transforming science-based information into actionable knowledge. The ENCOMPASS project began as a multi-year case study in the Atacama Desert of Chile to design and implement a knowledge transfer model for energy-water-mining conflicts in the region. ENCOMPASS combines the use of cyberinfrastructure (CI), automated data collection, interactive interfaces for dynamic decision support, and participatory modelling to support social learning. A pilot version of the ENCOMPASS CI uses open source systems and serves as a structure to integrate and store multiple forms of data and knowledge, such as DEM, meteorological, water quality, geomicrobiological, energy demand, and groundwater models. In the case study, informatics and data fusion needs related to scientific uncertainty around deep groundwater flowpaths and energy-water connections. Users may upload data from field sites with handheld devices or desktops. Once uploaded, data assets are accessible for a variety of uses. To address multi-attributed decision problems in the Atacama region a standalone application with touch-enabled interfaces was created to improve real-time interactions with datasets by groups. The tool was used to merge datasets from the ENCOMPASS CI to support exploration among alternatives and build shared understanding among stakeholders. To date, the project has increased technical capacity among stakeholders, resulted in the creation of both for-profit and non-profit entities, enabled cross-sector collaboration with mining-indigenous stakeholders, and produced an interactive application for group decision support. ENCOMPASS leverages advances in computational tools to deliver data and models for group decision support applied to sustainability science problems.

Coding Theory Information Theory and Radar

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

the design and synthesis of artificial multiagent systems and for the understanding of human decision-making processes. This... altruism that may exist in a complex society. SGT derives its ability to account simultaneously for both group and individual interests from the structure of ...satisficing decision theory as a model of human decision mak- ing. 2 Multi-Attribute Decision Making Many decision problems involve the consideration of

Decision Making In Assignment Problem With Multiple Attributes Under Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Sathi; Basu, Kajla

2010-10-01

In this paper we develop a methodology to solve the multiple attribute assignment problems where the attributes are considered to be Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets (IFS). We apply the concept of similarity measures of IFS to solve the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Assignment Problem (IFMAAP). The weights of the attributes are determined from expert opinion. An illustrative example is solved to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality.

Hierarchical competitions subserving multi-attribute choice

PubMed Central

Hunt, Laurence T; Dolan, Raymond J; Behrens, Timothy EJ

2015-01-01

Valuation is a key tenet of decision neuroscience, where it is generally assumed that different attributes of competing options are assimilated into unitary values. Such values are central to current neural models of choice. By contrast, psychological studies emphasize complex interactions between choice and valuation. Principles of neuronal selection also suggest competitive inhibition may occur in early valuation stages, before option selection. Here, we show behavior in multi-attribute choice is best explained by a model involving competition at multiple levels of representation. This hierarchical model also explains neural signals in human brain regions previously linked to valuation, including striatum, parietal and prefrontal cortex, where activity represents competition within-attribute, competition between attributes, and option selection. This multi-layered inhibition framework challenges the assumption that option values are computed before choice. Instead our results indicate a canonical competition mechanism throughout all stages of a processing hierarchy, not simply at a final choice stage. PMID:25306549

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

2004-01-01

The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

Demystifying the Process? A Multi Disciplinary Approach to Assessing Capacity for Adults with a Learning Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skinner, Rachael; Joiner, Chris; Chesters, Liz; Bates, Louise; Scrivener, Louise

2011-01-01

There appears to be some degree of hesitation and lack of confidence among professionals in conducting capacity assessments. This document explains a two-phase process developed and implemented by a multi-disciplinary group of professionals during a pilot project. The first phase in the decision making process is to determine to what extent the…

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: Science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Lonsdorf, E.V.; Knutson, M.G.; Laskowski, H.P.; Lor, S.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS. ?? 2010 .

Application of Grey Relational Analysis to Decision-Making during Product Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsiao, Shih-Wen; Lin, Hsin-Hung; Ko, Ya-Chuan

2017-01-01

A multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach was proposed in this study as a prediction method that differs from the conventional production and design methods for a product. When a client has different dimensional requirements, this approach can quickly provide a company with design decisions for each product. The production factors of a…

Application of the fuzzy topsis multi-attribute decision making method to determine scholarship recipients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvanizam, I.

2018-03-01

Some scholarships have been routinely offered by Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education of the Republic of Indonesia for students at Syiah Kuala University. In reality, the scholarship selection process is becoming subjective and highly complex problem. Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) techniques can be a solution in order to solve scholarship selection problem. In this study, we demonstrated the application of a fuzzy TOPSIS as an MADM technique by using a numerical example in order to calculate a triangular fuzzy number for the fuzzy data onto a normalized weight. We then use this normalized value to construct the normalized fuzzy decision matrix. We finally use the fuzzy TOPSIS to rank alternatives in descending order based on the relative closeness to the ideal solution. The result in terms of final ranking shows slightly different from the previous work.

A decision aid for intensity-modulated radiation-therapy plan selection in prostate cancer based on a prognostic Bayesian network and a Markov model.

PubMed

Smith, Wade P; Doctor, Jason; Meyer, Jürgen; Kalet, Ira J; Phillips, Mark H

2009-06-01

The prognosis of cancer patients treated with intensity-modulated radiation-therapy (IMRT) is inherently uncertain, depends on many decision variables, and requires that a physician balance competing objectives: maximum tumor control with minimal treatment complications. In order to better deal with the complex and multiple objective nature of the problem we have combined a prognostic probabilistic model with multi-attribute decision theory which incorporates patient preferences for outcomes. The response to IMRT for prostate cancer was modeled. A Bayesian network was used for prognosis for each treatment plan. Prognoses included predicting local tumor control, regional spread, distant metastases, and normal tissue complications resulting from treatment. A Markov model was constructed and used to calculate a quality-adjusted life-expectancy which aids in the multi-attribute decision process. Our method makes explicit the tradeoffs patients face between quality and quantity of life. This approach has advantages over current approaches because with our approach risks of health outcomes and patient preferences determine treatment decisions.

Impact of Decision Criteria on Federal Aviation Administration Certification of Military Commercial Derivative Aircraft

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

Capt Low was a member of the Sigma Iota Epsilon professional management fraternity. He has performed as an on-equipment and off-equipment...FAA Certification, Military Commercial Derivative Aircraft, Multi-Attribute Decision Making 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF

Deciding how to decide: ventromedial frontal lobe damage affects information acquisition in multi-attribute decision making.

PubMed

Fellows, Lesley K

2006-04-01

Ventromedial frontal lobe (VMF) damage is associated with impaired decision making. Recent efforts to understand the functions of this brain region have focused on its role in tracking reward, punishment and risk. However, decision making is complex, and frontal lobe damage might be expected to affect it at other levels. This study used process-tracing techniques to explore the effect of VMF damage on multi-attribute decision making under certainty. Thirteen subjects with focal VMF damage were compared with 11 subjects with frontal damage that spared the VMF and 21 demographically matched healthy control subjects. Participants chose rental apartments in a standard information board task drawn from the literature on normal decision making. VMF subjects performed the decision making task in a way that differed markedly from all other groups, favouring an 'alternative-based' information acquisition strategy (i.e. they organized their information search around individual apartments). In contrast, both healthy control subjects and subjects with damage predominantly involving dorsal and/or lateral prefrontal cortex pursued primarily 'attribute-based' search strategies (in which information was acquired about categories such as rent and noise level across several apartments). This difference in the pattern of information acquisition argues for systematic differences in the underlying decision heuristics and strategies employed by subjects with VMF damage, which in turn may affect the quality of their choices. These findings suggest that the processes supported by ventral and medial prefrontal cortex need to be conceptualized more broadly, to account for changes in decision making under conditions of certainty, as well as uncertainty, following damage to these areas.

Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

PubMed

Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

2016-01-01

To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Consumer Behavior and Decision Models to Aid Students in Choosing a Major.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaynama, Shohreh A.; Smith, Louise W.

1996-01-01

A study found that using consumer behavior and decision models to guide students to a major can be useful and enjoyable for students. Students consider many of the basic parameters through multi-attribute and decision-analysis models, so time with professors, who were found to be the most influential group, can be used for more individual and…

Multi-criteria clinical decision support: A primer on the use of multiple criteria decision making methods to promote evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare.

PubMed

Dolan, James G

2010-01-01

Current models of healthcare quality recommend that patient management decisions be evidence-based and patient-centered. Evidence-based decisions require a thorough understanding of current information regarding the natural history of disease and the anticipated outcomes of different management options. Patient-centered decisions incorporate patient preferences, values, and unique personal circumstances into the decision making process and actively involve both patients along with health care providers as much as possible. Fundamentally, therefore, evidence-based, patient-centered decisions are multi-dimensional and typically involve multiple decision makers.Advances in the decision sciences have led to the development of a number of multiple criteria decision making methods. These multi-criteria methods are designed to help people make better choices when faced with complex decisions involving several dimensions. They are especially helpful when there is a need to combine "hard data" with subjective preferences, to make trade-offs between desired outcomes, and to involve multiple decision makers. Evidence-based, patient-centered clinical decision making has all of these characteristics. This close match suggests that clinical decision support systems based on multi-criteria decision making techniques have the potential to enable patients and providers to carry out the tasks required to implement evidence-based, patient-centered care effectively and efficiently in clinical settings.The goal of this paper is to give readers a general introduction to the range of multi-criteria methods available and show how they could be used to support clinical decision-making. Methods discussed include the balance sheet, the even swap method, ordinal ranking methods, direct weighting methods, multi-attribute decision analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

Multi-criteria clinical decision support: A primer on the use of multiple criteria decision making methods to promote evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.

2010-01-01

Current models of healthcare quality recommend that patient management decisions be evidence-based and patient-centered. Evidence-based decisions require a thorough understanding of current information regarding the natural history of disease and the anticipated outcomes of different management options. Patient-centered decisions incorporate patient preferences, values, and unique personal circumstances into the decision making process and actively involve both patients along with health care providers as much as possible. Fundamentally, therefore, evidence-based, patient-centered decisions are multi-dimensional and typically involve multiple decision makers. Advances in the decision sciences have led to the development of a number of multiple criteria decision making methods. These multi-criteria methods are designed to help people make better choices when faced with complex decisions involving several dimensions. They are especially helpful when there is a need to combine “hard data” with subjective preferences, to make trade-offs between desired outcomes, and to involve multiple decision makers. Evidence-based, patient-centered clinical decision making has all of these characteristics. This close match suggests that clinical decision support systems based on multi-criteria decision making techniques have the potential to enable patients and providers to carry out the tasks required to implement evidence-based, patient-centered care effectively and efficiently in clinical settings. The goal of this paper is to give readers a general introduction to the range of multi-criteria methods available and show how they could be used to support clinical decision-making. Methods discussed include the balance sheet, the even swap method, ordinal ranking methods, direct weighting methods, multi-attribute decision analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) PMID:21394218

A Structured Decision Approach for Integrating and Analyzing Community Perspectives in Re-Use Planning of Vacant Properties in Cleveland, Ohio

EPA Science Inventory

An integrated GIS-based, multi-attribute decision model deployed in a web-based platform is presented enabling an iterative, spatially explicit and collaborative analysis of relevant and available information for repurposing vacant land. The process incorporated traditional and ...

An Integrated Approach of Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Based AHP and Fuzzy COPRAS for Machine Tool Evaluation.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; Aoyama, Hideki; Case, Keith

2015-01-01

Globalization of business and competitiveness in manufacturing has forced companies to improve their manufacturing facilities to respond to market requirements. Machine tool evaluation involves an essential decision using imprecise and vague information, and plays a major role to improve the productivity and flexibility in manufacturing. The aim of this study is to present an integrated approach for decision-making in machine tool selection. This paper is focused on the integration of a consistent fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a fuzzy COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS) for multi-attribute decision-making in selecting the most suitable machine tool. In this method, the fuzzy linguistic reference relation is integrated into AHP to handle the imprecise and vague information, and to simplify the data collection for the pair-wise comparison matrix of the AHP which determines the weights of attributes. The output of the fuzzy AHP is imported into the fuzzy COPRAS method for ranking alternatives through the closeness coefficient. Presentation of the proposed model application is provided by a numerical example based on the collection of data by questionnaire and from the literature. The results highlight the integration of the improved fuzzy AHP and the fuzzy COPRAS as a precise tool and provide effective multi-attribute decision-making for evaluating the machine tool in the uncertain environment.

The role of situation assessment and flight experience in pilots' decisions to continue visual flight rules flight into adverse weather.

PubMed

Wiegmann, Douglas A; Goh, Juliana; O'Hare, David

2002-01-01

Visual flight rules (VFR) flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) is a major safety hazard in general aviation. In this study we examined pilots' decisions to continue or divert from a VFR flight into IMC during a dynamic simulation of a cross-country flight. Pilots encountered IMC either early or later into the flight, and the amount of time and distance pilots flew into the adverse weather prior to diverting was recorded. Results revealed that pilots who encountered the deteriorating weather earlier in the flight flew longer into the weather prior to diverting and had more optimistic estimates of weather conditions than did pilots who encountered the deteriorating weather later in the flight. Both the time and distance traveled into the weather prior to diverting were negatively correlated with pilots' previous flight experience. These findings suggest that VFR flight into IMC may be attributable, at least in part, to poor situation assessment and experience rather than to motivational judgment that induces risk-taking behavior as more time and effort are invested in a flight. Actual or potential applications of this research include the design of interventions that focus on improving weather evaluation skills in addition to addressing risk-taking attitudes.

Decision Making for Pap Testing among Pacific Islander Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiss, Jie W.; Mouttapa, Michele; Sablan-Santos, Lola; DeGuzman Lacsamana, Jasmine; Quitugua, Lourdes; Park Tanjasiri, Sora

2016-01-01

This study employed a Multi-Attribute Utility (MAU) model to examine the Pap test decision-making process among Pacific Islanders (PI) residing in Southern California. A total of 585 PI women were recruited through social networks from Samoan and Tongan churches, and Chamorro family clans. A questionnaire assessed Pap test knowledge, beliefs and…

Perceptual grouping does not affect multi-attribute decision making if no processing costs are involved.

PubMed

Ettlin, Florence; Bröder, Arndt

2015-05-01

Adaptive strategy selection implies that a decision strategy is chosen based on its fit to the task and situation. However, other aspects, such as the way information is presented, can determine information search behavior; especially when the application of certain strategies over others is facilitated. But are such display effects on multi-attribute decisions also at work when the manipulation does not entail differential costs for different decision strategies? Three Mouselab experiments with hidden information and one eye tracking experiment with an open information board revealed that decision behavior is unaffected by purely perceptual manipulations of the display based on Gestalt principles; that is, based on manipulations that induce no noteworthy processing costs for different information search patterns. We discuss our results in the context of previous findings on display effects; specifically, how the combination of these findings and our results reveal the crucial role of differential processing costs for different strategies for the emergence of display effects. This finding describes a boundary condition of the commonly acknowledged influence of information displays and is in line with the ideas of adaptive strategy selection and cost-benefit tradeoffs. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Production Task Queue Optimization Based on Multi-Attribute Evaluation for Complex Product Assembly Workshop.

PubMed

Li, Lian-Hui; Mo, Rong

2015-01-01

The production task queue has a great significance for manufacturing resource allocation and scheduling decision. Man-made qualitative queue optimization method has a poor effect and makes the application difficult. A production task queue optimization method is proposed based on multi-attribute evaluation. According to the task attributes, the hierarchical multi-attribute model is established and the indicator quantization methods are given. To calculate the objective indicator weight, criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) is selected from three usual methods. To calculate the subjective indicator weight, BP neural network is used to determine the judge importance degree, and then the trapezoid fuzzy scale-rough AHP considering the judge importance degree is put forward. The balanced weight, which integrates the objective weight and the subjective weight, is calculated base on multi-weight contribution balance model. The technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) improved by replacing Euclidean distance with relative entropy distance is used to sequence the tasks and optimize the queue by the weighted indicator value. A case study is given to illustrate its correctness and feasibility.

Production Task Queue Optimization Based on Multi-Attribute Evaluation for Complex Product Assembly Workshop

PubMed Central

Li, Lian-hui; Mo, Rong

2015-01-01

The production task queue has a great significance for manufacturing resource allocation and scheduling decision. Man-made qualitative queue optimization method has a poor effect and makes the application difficult. A production task queue optimization method is proposed based on multi-attribute evaluation. According to the task attributes, the hierarchical multi-attribute model is established and the indicator quantization methods are given. To calculate the objective indicator weight, criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) is selected from three usual methods. To calculate the subjective indicator weight, BP neural network is used to determine the judge importance degree, and then the trapezoid fuzzy scale-rough AHP considering the judge importance degree is put forward. The balanced weight, which integrates the objective weight and the subjective weight, is calculated base on multi-weight contribution balance model. The technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) improved by replacing Euclidean distance with relative entropy distance is used to sequence the tasks and optimize the queue by the weighted indicator value. A case study is given to illustrate its correctness and feasibility. PMID:26414758

Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information systems for landfill site selection: a case study using ordered weighted average.

PubMed

Gorsevski, Pece V; Donevska, Katerina R; Mitrovski, Cvetko D; Frizado, Joseph P

2012-02-01

This paper presents a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach for evaluating the suitability for landfill site selection in the Polog Region, Macedonia. The multi-criteria decision framework considers environmental and economic factors which are standardized by fuzzy membership functions and combined by integration of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and ordered weighted average (OWA) techniques. The AHP is used for the elicitation of attribute weights while the OWA operator function is used to generate a wide range of decision alternatives for addressing uncertainty associated with interaction between multiple criteria. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by different OWA scenarios that report landfill suitability on a scale between 0 and 1. The OWA scenarios are intended to quantify the level of risk taking (i.e., optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) and to facilitate a better understanding of patterns that emerge from decision alternatives involved in the decision making process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Approach of Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Based AHP and Fuzzy COPRAS for Machine Tool Evaluation

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; Aoyama, Hideki; Case, Keith

2015-01-01

Globalization of business and competitiveness in manufacturing has forced companies to improve their manufacturing facilities to respond to market requirements. Machine tool evaluation involves an essential decision using imprecise and vague information, and plays a major role to improve the productivity and flexibility in manufacturing. The aim of this study is to present an integrated approach for decision-making in machine tool selection. This paper is focused on the integration of a consistent fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a fuzzy COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS) for multi-attribute decision-making in selecting the most suitable machine tool. In this method, the fuzzy linguistic reference relation is integrated into AHP to handle the imprecise and vague information, and to simplify the data collection for the pair-wise comparison matrix of the AHP which determines the weights of attributes. The output of the fuzzy AHP is imported into the fuzzy COPRAS method for ranking alternatives through the closeness coefficient. Presentation of the proposed model application is provided by a numerical example based on the collection of data by questionnaire and from the literature. The results highlight the integration of the improved fuzzy AHP and the fuzzy COPRAS as a precise tool and provide effective multi-attribute decision-making for evaluating the machine tool in the uncertain environment. PMID:26368541

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Postoptimality analysis in the selection of technology portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, Virgil; Shelton, Kacie; Elfes, Alberto; Weisbin, Charles R.

2006-01-01

This paper describes an approach for qualifying optimal technology portfolios obtained with a multi-attribute decision support system. The goal is twofold: to gauge the degree of confidence in the optimal solution and to provide the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy non-technical constraints.

Qualitatively Coherent Representation Makes Decision-Making Easier with Binary-Colored Multi-Attribute Tables: An Eye-Tracking Study

PubMed Central

Morii, Masahiro; Ideno, Takashi; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Okada, Mitsuhiro

2017-01-01

We aimed to identify the ways in which coloring cells affected decision-making in the context of binary-colored multi-attribute tables, using eye movement data. In our black-white attribute tables, the value of attributes was limited to two (with a certain threshold for each attribute) and each cell of the table was colored either black or white on the white background. We compared the two natural ways of systematic color assignment: “quantitatively coherent” ways and “qualitatively coherent” ways (namely, the ways in which the black-white distinction represented the quantitative amount distinction, and the ways in which the black-white distinction represented the quality distinction). The former consists of the following two types: (Type 1) “larger is black,” where the larger value-level was represented by black, and “smaller is white,” and (Type 2) “smaller is black.” The latter consisted of the following two types: (Type 3) “better is black,” and (Type 4) “worse is black.” We obtained the following two findings. [Result 1] The qualitatively coherent black-white tables (Types 3 and 4) made decision-making easier than the quantitatively coherent ones (Types 1 and 2). [Result 2] Among the two qualitatively coherent types, the “black is better” tables (Type 3) made decision making easier; in fact, the participants focused on the more important (black) cells in the case of “black is better” tables (Type 3) while they did not focus enough on the more important (white) ones in the case of the “white is better” tables (Type 4). We also examined some measures of eye movement patterns and showed that these measures supported our hypotheses. The data showed differences in the eye movement patterns between the first and second halves of each trial, which indicated the phased or combined decision strategies taken by the participants. PMID:28861020

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land use change. Finally, the major contributions to the science are presented along with valuable directions for future research.

A cloud model based multi-attribute decision making approach for selection and evaluation of groundwater management schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Hongwei; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong; Tian, Peipei; Liu, Jia

2017-12-01

Due to the uncertainty (i.e., fuzziness, stochasticity and imprecision) existed simultaneously during the process for groundwater remediation, the accuracy of ranking results obtained by the traditional methods has been limited. This paper proposes a cloud model based multi-attribute decision making framework (CM-MADM) with Monte Carlo for the contaminated-groundwater remediation strategies selection. The cloud model is used to handle imprecise numerical quantities, which can describe the fuzziness and stochasticity of the information fully and precisely. In the proposed approach, the contaminated concentrations are aggregated via the backward cloud generator and the weights of attributes are calculated by employing the weight cloud module. A case study on the remedial alternative selection for a contaminated site suffering from a 1,1,1-trichloroethylene leakage problem in Shanghai, China is conducted to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the developed approach. Totally, an attribute system which consists of ten attributes were used for evaluating each alternative through the developed method under uncertainty, including daily total pumping rate, total cost and cloud model based health risk. Results indicated that A14 was evaluated to be the most preferred alternative for the 5-year, A5 for the 10-year, A4 for the 15-year and A6 for the 20-year remediation.

The eyes have it: Using eye tracking to inform information processing strategies in multi-attributes choices.

PubMed

Ryan, Mandy; Krucien, Nicolas; Hermens, Frouke

2018-04-01

Although choice experiments (CEs) are widely applied in economics to study choice behaviour, understanding of how individuals process attribute information remains limited. We show how eye-tracking methods can provide insight into how decisions are made. Participants completed a CE, while their eye movements were recorded. Results show that although the information presented guided participants' decisions, there were also several processing biases at work. Evidence was found of (a) top-to-bottom, (b) left-to-right, and (c) first-to-last order biases. Experimental factors-whether attributes are defined as "best" or "worst," choice task complexity, and attribute ordering-also influence information processing. How individuals visually process attribute information was shown to be related to their choices. Implications for the design and analysis of CEs and future research are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intelligent Pilot Aids for Flight Re-Planning in Emergencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pritchett, Amy R.

2002-01-01

Experimental studies were conducted with pilots to investigate the attributes of automation that would be appropriate for aiding pilots in emergencies. The specific focus of this year was on methods of mitigating automation brittleness. Brittleness occurs when the automatic system is used in circumstances it was not designed for, causing it to choose an incorrect action or make an inaccurate decision for the situation. Brittleness is impossible to avoid since it is impossible to predict every potential situation the automatic system will be exposed to over its life. However, operators are always ultimately responsible for the actions and decisions of the automation they are monitoring or using, which means they must evaluate the automation's decisions and actions for accuracy. As has been pointed out, this is a difficult thing for human operators to do. There have been various suggestions as to how to aid operators with this evaluation. In the study described in this report we studied how presentation of contextual information about an automatic system's decision might impact the ability of the human operators to evaluate that decision. This study focused on the planning of emergency descents. Fortunately, emergencies (e.g., mechanical or electrical malfunction, on-board fire, and medical emergency) happen quite rarely. However, they can be catastrophic when they do. For all predictable or conceivable emergencies, pilots have emergency procedures that they are trained on, but those procedures often end with 'determine suitable airport and land as quickly as possible.' Planning an emergency descent to an unplanned airport is a difficult task, particularly under the time pressures of an emergency. Automatic decision aids could be very efficient at the task of determining an appropriate airport and calculating an optimal trajectory to that airport. This information could be conveyed to the pilot through an emergency descent procedure listing all of the actions necessary to safely land the plane. However, there is still the potential problem of brittleness. This study examined the impact of contextual information in presentations of emergency descent procedures to see if they might impact the pilot's evaluation of the feasibility of the presented procedure. The study and its results are described in detail.

Integrating evidence and individual preferences using a web-based multi-criteria decision analytic tool: an application to prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Cunich, Michelle; Salkeld, Glenn; Dowie, Jack; Henderson, Joan; Bayram, Clare; Britt, Helena; Howard, Kirsten

2011-01-01

Annalisa© (AL) is a web-based decision-support template grounded in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). It uses a simple expected value algorithm to calculate a score for each option by taking into account the individual's preferences for different criteria (as importance weights) and the evidence of the performance of each option on each criterion. Given the uncertainty surrounding the trade offs between benefits and harms for prostate cancer screening, this topic was chosen as the vehicle to introduce this new decision-support template. The aim of the study was to introduce a new decision-support template, AL, and to develop and pilot a decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening using it. A decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening (ALProst) was implemented in the AL template. ALProst incorporated evidence on both the benefits and the potential harms of prostate cancer screening (the 'attributes') from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Individual weights for each attribute were elicited during interviews. By combining the individual's preferences and the evidence, the best option for the user was identified on the basis of quantified scores. A convenience sample of computer-proficient primary-care physicians (general practitioners [GPs] in Australia) from the Sydney Metropolitan area (Australia) were invited to complete a face-to-face interview involving the decision-support tool. Preference for undergoing prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer, both personally and for their patients, was sought prior to seeing the tool. After gaining hands-on experience with using the tool, GPs were asked to comment on the merits of the template and the tool. Preference for presenting the benefits of prostate cancer screening as the relative or absolute risk reduction in prostate cancer-specific mortality was also sought. Of 60 GPs approached, ten (six men and four women) completed an interview (16.7% response rate). Most GPs agreed/strongly agreed with positive statements about the ease with which they could use AL (seven GPs), and understand the information in, and format of, AL (nine and eight, respectively). Eight agreed/strongly agreed that ALProst would be a useful tool for discussing prostate cancer screening with their patients. GPs were also asked to nominate difficult clinical decisions that they, and their patients, have had to make; responses included cancer screening (including prostate cancer); treating patients with multiple illnesses/diseases; managing multiple cardiovascular disease risk factors; and managing patients who are receiving multiple medications. The common element was the need to consider multiple factors in making these complex decisions. AL is distinguishable from most other decision-support templates available today by its underlying conceptual framework, MCDA, and its power to combine individual preferences with evidence to derive the best option for the user quantitatively. It therefore becomes potentially useful for all decisions at all levels in the healthcare system. Moreover, it will provide a universal graphic 'language' that can overcome the burden to patients of encountering a plethora of widely varying decision aids for different conditions during their lifetime.

Application fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis method to prioritize project success criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Quyen, Nguyen Le Hoang Thuy To

2017-11-01

Project success is a foundation for project owner to manage and control not only for the current project but also for future potential projects in construction companies. However, identifying the key success criteria for evaluating a particular project in real practice is a challenging task. Normally, it depends on a lot of factors, such as the expectation of the project owner and stakeholders, triple constraints of the project (cost, time, quality), and company's mission, vision, and objectives. Traditional decision-making methods for measuring the project success are usually based on subjective opinions of panel experts, resulting in irrational and inappropriate decisions. Therefore, this paper introduces a multi-attribute decision analysis method (MADAM) for weighting project success criteria by using fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process approach. It is found that this method is useful when dealing with imprecise and uncertain human judgments in evaluating project success criteria. Moreover, this research also suggests that although cost, time, and quality are three project success criteria projects, the satisfaction of project owner and acceptance of project stakeholders with the completed project criteria is the most important criteria for project success evaluation in Vietnam.

Pre-consultation educational group intervention to improve shared decision-making in postmastectomy breast reconstruction: study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Platt, Jennica; Baxter, Nancy; Jones, Jennifer; Metcalfe, Kelly; Causarano, Natalie; Hofer, Stefan O P; O'Neill, Anne; Cheng, Terry; Starenkyj, Elizabeth; Zhong, Toni

2013-07-06

The Pre-Consultation Educational Group INTERVENTION pilot study seeks to assess the feasibility and inform the optimal design for a definitive randomized controlled trial that aims to improve the quality of decision-making in postmastectomy breast reconstruction patients. This is a mixed-methods pilot feasibility randomized controlled trial that will follow a single-center, 1:1 allocation, two-arm parallel group superiority design. The University Health Network, a tertiary care cancer center in Toronto, Canada. Adult women referred to one of three plastic and reconstructive surgeons for delayed breast reconstruction or prophylactic mastectomy with immediate breast reconstruction. We designed a multi-disciplinary educational group workshop that incorporates the key components of shared decision-making, decision-support, and psychosocial support for cancer survivors prior to the initial surgical consult. The intervention consists of didactic lectures by a plastic surgeon and nurse specialist on breast reconstruction choices, pre- and postoperative care; a value-clarification exercise led by a social worker; and discussions with a breast reconstruction patient. Usual care includes access to an informational booklet, website, and patient volunteer if desired. Expected pilot outcomes include feasibility, recruitment, and retention targets. Acceptability of intervention and full trial outcomes will be established through qualitative interviews. Trial outcomes will include decision-quality measures, patient-reported outcomes, and service outcomes, and the treatment effect estimate and variability will be used to inform the sample size calculation for a full trial. Our pilot study seeks to identify the (1) feasibility, acceptability, and design of a definitive RCT and (2) the optimal content and delivery of our proposed educational group intervention. Thirty patients have been recruited to date (8 April 2013), of whom 15 have been randomized to one of three decision support workshops. The trial will close as planned in May 2013. NCT01857882.

Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

PubMed

Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

2017-12-01

The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages of the Neyrpic® gate are ease of operation and capacity to measure discharge flows. Overall, the application to the Qazvin irrigation network demonstrates the utility of the proposed DA framework in selecting appropriate structures for regulating water flows in irrigation canals. This framework systematically aids the decision process by capturing decisions made at various levels (individual farmers to high-level management). It can be applied to other cases where a new irrigation network is being designed, or where changes in irrigation structures need to be identified to improve flow control in existing networks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An optimized solution of multi-criteria evaluation analysis of landslide susceptibility using fuzzy sets and Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorsevski, Pece V.; Jankowski, Piotr

2010-08-01

The Kalman recursive algorithm has been very widely used for integrating navigation sensor data to achieve optimal system performances. This paper explores the use of the Kalman filter to extend the aggregation of spatial multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) and to find optimal solutions with respect to a decision strategy space where a possible decision rule falls. The approach was tested in a case study in the Clearwater National Forest in central Idaho, using existing landslide datasets from roaded and roadless areas and terrain attributes. In this approach, fuzzy membership functions were used to standardize terrain attributes and develop criteria, while the aggregation of the criteria was achieved by the use of a Kalman filter. The approach presented here offers advantages over the classical MCE theory because the final solution includes both the aggregated solution and the areas of uncertainty expressed in terms of standard deviation. A comparison of this methodology with similar approaches suggested that this approach is promising for predicting landslide susceptibility and further application as a spatial decision support system.

Close Combat Missile Methodology Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-14

Modeling: Industrial Applications of DEX.” Informatica 23 (1999): 487-491. Bohanec, Marko, Blaz Zupan, and Vladislav Rajkovic. “Applications of...Lisec. “Multi-attribute Decision Analysis in GIS: Weighted Linear Combination and Ordered Weighted Averaging.” Informatica 33, (1999): 459- 474

Using a multidimensional unfolding approach to assess multiple sclerosis patient preferences for disease-modifying therapy: a pilot study

PubMed Central

Sempere, Angel Perez; Vera-Lopez, Vanesa; Gimenez-Martinez, Juana; Ruiz-Beato, Elena; Cuervo, Jesús; Maurino, Jorge

2017-01-01

Purpose Multidimensional unfolding is a multivariate method to assess preferences using a small sample size, a geometric model locating individuals and alternatives as points in a joint space. The objective was to evaluate relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patient preferences toward key disease-modifying therapy (DMT) attributes using multidimensional unfolding. Patients and methods A cross-sectional pilot study in RRMS patients was conducted. Drug attributes included relapse prevention, disease progression prevention, side-effect risk and route and schedule of administration. Assessment of preferences was performed through a five-card game. Patients were asked to value attributes from 1 (most preferred) to 5 (least preferred). Results A total of 37 patients were included; the mean age was 38.6 years, and 78.4% were female. Disease progression prevention was the most important factor (51.4%), followed by relapse prevention (40.5%). The frequency of administration had the lowest preference rating for 56.8% of patients. Finally, 19.6% valued the side-effect risk attribute as having low/very low importance. Conclusion Patients’ perspective for DMT attributes may provide valuable information to facilitate shared decision-making. Efficacy attributes were the most important drug characteristics for RRMS patients. Multidimensional unfolding seems to be a feasible approach to assess preferences in multiple sclerosis patients. Further elicitation studies using multidimensional unfolding with other stated choice methods are necessary to confirm these findings. PMID:28615928

Decision-making Strategies and Performance among Seniors1

PubMed Central

Besedeš, Tibor; Deck, Cary; Sarangi, Sudipta; Shor, Mikhael

2011-01-01

Using paper and pencil experiments administered in senior centers, we examine decision-making performance in multi-attribute decision problems. We differentiate the effects of declining cognitive performance and changing cognitive process on decision-making performance of seniors as they age. We find a significant decline in performance with age due to reduced reliance on common heuristics and increased decision-making randomness among our oldest subjects. However, we find that increasing the number of options in a decision problem increases the number of heuristics brought to the task. This challenges the choice overload view that people give up when confronted with too much choice. PMID:22408282

Robust Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-Attribute Deterministic Hierarchical Value Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

such as weighted sum method, weighted 5 product method, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP ). This research focuses on only weighted sum...different groups. They can be termed as deterministic, stochastic, or fuzzy multi-objective decision methods if they are classified according to the...weighted product model (WPM), and analytic hierarchy process ( AHP ). His method attempts to identify the most important criteria weight and the most

Screening and Evaluation Tool (SET) Users Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pincock, Layne

This document is the users guide to using the Screening and Evaluation Tool (SET). SET is a tool for comparing multiple fuel cycle options against a common set of criteria and metrics. It does this using standard multi-attribute utility decision analysis methods.

Decision analysis for a data collection system of patient-controlled analgesia with a multi-attribute utility model.

PubMed

Lee, I-Jung; Huang, Shih-Yu; Tsou, Mei-Yung; Chan, Kwok-Hon; Chang, Kuang-Yi

2010-10-01

Data collection systems are very important for the practice of patient-controlled analgesia (PCA). This study aimed to evaluate 3 PCA data collection systems and selected the most favorable system with the aid of multiattribute utility (MAU) theory. We developed a questionnaire with 10 items to evaluate the PCA data collection system and 1 item for overall satisfaction based on MAU theory. Three systems were compared in the questionnaire, including a paper record, optic card reader and personal digital assistant (PDA). A pilot study demonstrated a good internal and test-retest reliability of the questionnaire. A weighted utility score combining the relative importance of individual items assigned by each participant and their responses to each question was calculated for each system. Sensitivity analyses with distinct weighting protocols were conducted to evaluate the stability of the final results. Thirty potential users of a PCA data collection system were recruited in the study. The item "easy to use" had the highest median rank and received the heaviest mean weight among all items. MAU analysis showed that the PDA system had a higher utility score than that in the other 2 systems. Sensitivity analyses revealed that both inverse and reciprocal weighting processes favored the PDA system. High correlations between overall satisfaction and MAU scores from miscellaneous weighting protocols suggested a good predictive validity of our MAU-based questionnaire. The PDA system was selected as the most favorable PCA data collection system by the MAU analysis. The item "easy to use" was the most important attribute of the PCA data collection system. MAU theory can evaluate alternatives by taking into account individual preferences of stakeholders and aid in better decision-making. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benchmark Report on Key Outage Attributes: An Analysis of Outage Improvement Opportunities and Priorities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Germain, Shawn St.; Farris, Ronald

2014-09-01

Advanced Outage Control Center (AOCC), is a multi-year pilot project targeted at Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) outage improvement. The purpose of this pilot project is to improve management of NPP outages through the development of an AOCC that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report documents the results of a benchmarking effort to evaluate the transferability of technologies demonstrated at Idaho National Laboratory and the primary pilot project partner, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station. The initial assumption for this pilot project was that NPPs generally domore » not take advantage of advanced technology to support outage management activities. Several researchers involved in this pilot project have commercial NPP experience and believed that very little technology has been applied towards outage communication and collaboration. To verify that the technology options researched and demonstrated through this pilot project would in fact have broad application for the US commercial nuclear fleet, and to look for additional outage management best practices, LWRS program researchers visited several additional nuclear facilities.« less

Enriching the national map database for multi-scale use: Introducing the visibilityfilter attribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stauffer, Andrew J.; Webinger, Seth; Roche, Brittany

2016-01-01

The US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Geospatial Technical Operations Center is prototyping and evaluating the ability to filter data through a range of scales using 1:24,000-scale The National Map (TNM) datasets as the source. A “VisibilityFilter” attribute is under evaluation that can be added to all TNM vector data themes and will permit filtering of data to eight target scales between 1:24,000 and 1:5,000,000, thus defining each feature’s smallest applicable scale-of-use. For a prototype implementation, map specifications for 1:100,000- and 1:250,000-scale USGS Topographic Map Series are being utilized to define feature content appropriate at fixed mapping scales to guide generalization decisions that are documented in a ScaleMaster diagram. This paper defines the VisibilityFilter attribute, the generalization decisions made for each TNM data theme, and how these decisions are embedded into the data to support efficient data filtering.

Greenbelt Homes Pilot Energy Efficiency Program Phase 1 Summary. Existing Conditions and Baseline Energy Use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiehagen, J.; Del Bianco, M.; Wood, A.

2013-02-01

A multi-year pilot energy efficiency retrofit project has been undertaken by Greenbelt Homes, Inc, (GHI) a 1,566 co-operative of circa 1930 and '40 homes. The three predominate construction methods of the townhomes in the community are materials common to the area and climate zone including 8” CMU block, wood frame with brick veneer and wood frame with vinyl siding. GHI has established a pilot project that will serve as a basis for decision making for the roll out of a decade-long community upgrade program that will incorporate energy efficiency to the building envelope and equipment with the modernization of othermore » systems like plumbing, mechanical equipment, and cladding.« less

Greenbelt Homes Pilot Energy Efficiency Program Phase 1 Summary: Existing Conditions and Baseline Energy Use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiehagen, J.; Del Bianco, M.; Wood, A.

2013-02-01

A multi-year pilot energy efficiency retrofit project has been undertaken by Greenbelt Homes, Inc, (GHI) a 1,566 co-operative of circa 1930 and '40 homes. The three predominate construction methods of the townhomes in the community are materials common to the area and climate zone including 8" CMU block, wood frame with brick veneer and wood frame with vinyl siding. GHI has established a pilot project that will serve as a basis for decision making for the roll out of a decade-long community upgrade program that will incorporate energy efficiency to the building envelope and equipment with the modernization of othermore » systems like plumbing, mechanical equipment, and cladding.« less

Temporal Drivers of Liking Based on Functional Data Analysis and Non-Additive Models for Multi-Attribute Time-Intensity Data of Fruit Chews.

PubMed

Kuesten, Carla; Bi, Jian

2018-06-03

Conventional drivers of liking analysis was extended with a time dimension into temporal drivers of liking (TDOL) based on functional data analysis methodology and non-additive models for multiple-attribute time-intensity (MATI) data. The non-additive models, which consider both direct effects and interaction effects of attributes to consumer overall liking, include Choquet integral and fuzzy measure in the multi-criteria decision-making, and linear regression based on variance decomposition. Dynamics of TDOL, i.e., the derivatives of the relative importance functional curves were also explored. Well-established R packages 'fda', 'kappalab' and 'relaimpo' were used in the paper for developing TDOL. Applied use of these methods shows that the relative importance of MATI curves offers insights for understanding the temporal aspects of consumer liking for fruit chews.

Prioritization of highway maintenance functions using multi-attribute decision making with fuzzy pairwise comparison.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-01

"As is the case for most of the Departments of Transportation in the U.S., the Texas Department of : Transportation has been experiencing fluctuations of budget for maintaining and preserving its highway : infrastructure over the recent years. If the...

Evaluate the use of tanning agent in leather industry using material flow analysis, life cycle assessment and fuzzy multi-attribute decision making (FMADM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfarisi, Salman; Sutono, Sugoro Bhakti; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2017-11-01

Tanning industry is one of the companies that produce many pollutants and cause the negative impact on the environment. In the production process of tanning leather, the use of input material need to be evaluated. The problem of waste, not only have a negative impact on the environment, but also human health. In this study, the impact of mimosa as vegetable tanning agent evaluated. This study will provide alternative solutions for improvements to the use of vegetable tanning agent. The alternative solution is change mimosa with indusol, gambier, and dulcotan. This study evaluate the vegetable tanning of some aspects using material flow analysis and life cycle assessment approach. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate the environmental impact of vegetable tanning agent. Alternative solution selection using fuzzy multi-attribute decision making (FMADM) approach. Results obtained by considering the environment, human toxicity, climate change, and marine aquatic ecotoxicity, is to use dulcotan.

Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics Technology Evaluation and Selection Using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making Process and Non-Deterministic Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burg, Cecile M.; Hill, Geoffrey A.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Geiselhart, Karl A.

2004-01-01

The Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center has investigated revolutionary Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics (PAA) technologies and configurations for a Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) type aircraft as part of its research for NASA s Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) Project. Within the context of the long-term NASA goal of reducing the perceived aircraft noise level by a factor of 4 relative to 1997 state of the art, major configuration changes in the propulsion airframe integration system were explored with noise as a primary design consideration. An initial down-select and assessment of candidate PAA technologies for the BWB was performed using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) process consisting of organized brainstorming and decision-making tools. The assessments focused on what effect the PAA technologies had on both the overall noise level of the BWB and what effect they had on other major design considerations such as weight, performance and cost. A probabilistic systems analysis of the PAA configurations that presented the best noise reductions with the least negative impact on the system was then performed. Detailed results from the MADM study and the probabilistic systems analysis will be published in the near future.

Cooperation driven coherence: Brains working hard together.

PubMed

Bezerianos, Anastasios; Sun, Yu; Chen, Yu; Woong, Kian Fong; Taya, Fumihiko; Arico, Pietro; Borghini, Gianluca; Babiloni, Fabio; Thakor, Nitish

2015-01-01

The current study aims to look at the difference in coupling of EEG activity of participant pairs while they perform a cooperative, concurrent, independent yet different task at high and low difficulty levels. Participants performed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) designed Multi-Attribute Task Battery (MATB-II) task which simulates a pilot and copilot operating an aircraft. Each participant in the pair was responsible for 2 out of 4 subtasks which were independent and different from one another while all tasks occurs concurrently in real time with difficulty levels being the frequency that adjustments are required for each subtask. We found that as the task become more difficult, there was more coupling between the pilot and copilot.

Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

PubMed

Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2011-09-01

Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Multi-Stakeholder Decision Aid for Improved Prioritization of the Public Health Impact of Climate Sensitive Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Hongoh, Valerie; Michel, Pascal; Gosselin, Pierre; Samoura, Karim; Ravel, André; Campagna, Céline; Cissé, Hassane Djibrilla; Waaub, Jean-Philippe

2016-01-01

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are an important global health concern and necessitate decisions for allocation of resources. Economic tools have been used previously; however, how prioritization results might differ when done using broader considerations identified by local stakeholders has yet to be assessed. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was used to assess multi-stakeholder expressed concerns around disease prioritization via focus groups held in Quebec and Burkina Faso. Stakeholders weighted criteria and comparisons were made across study sites. A pilot disease prioritization was done to examine effects on disease rankings. A majority of identified criteria were common to both sites. The effect of context specific criteria and weights resulted in similar yet distinct prioritizations of diseases. The presence of consistent criteria between sites suggests that common concerns exist for prioritization; however, context-specific adjustments reveal much regarding resource availability, capacity and concerns that should be considered as this impacts disease ranking. Participatory decision aid approaches facilitate rich knowledge exchange and problem structuring. Furthermore, given multiple actors in low- and middle-income countries settings, multi-actor collaborations across non-governmental organizations, local government and community are important. Formal mechanisms such as MCDA provide means to foster consensus, shared awareness and collaboration. PMID:27077875

The Valuation of Scientific and Technical Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, F. E.

1972-01-01

Rational selection of scientific and technical experiments for space missions is studied. Particular emphasis is placed on the assessment of value or worth of an experiment. A specification procedure is outlined and discussed for the case of one decision maker. Experiments are viewed as multi-attributed entities, and a relevant set of attributes is proposed. Alternative methods of describing levels of the attributes are proposed and discussed. The reasonableness of certain simplifying assumptions such as preferential and utility independence is explored, and it is tentatively concluded that preferential independence applies and utility independence appears to be appropriate.

A consensus reaching model for 2-tuple linguistic multiple attribute group decision making with incomplete weight information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wancheng; Xu, Yejun; Wang, Huimin

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to put forward a consensus reaching method for multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems with linguistic information, in which the weight information of experts and attributes is unknown. First, some basic concepts and operational laws of 2-tuple linguistic label are introduced. Then, a grey relational analysis method and a maximising deviation method are proposed to calculate the incomplete weight information of experts and attributes respectively. To eliminate the conflict in the group, a weight-updating model is employed to derive the weights of experts based on their contribution to the consensus reaching process. After conflict elimination, the final group preference can be obtained which will give the ranking of the alternatives. The model can effectively avoid information distortion which is occurred regularly in the linguistic information processing. Finally, an illustrative example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed method and comparative analysis with the existing methods are offered to show the advantages of the proposed method.

Manning the Next Unmanned Air Force: Developing RPA Pilots of the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

is essential since “natural human capacities are becoming mismatched to the enormous data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds that...screening criteria, the tests “are a rich source of information on the attributes of the candidate and have been used to construct a composite...against terrorism than any manned aircraft. From a recruiting point, it is also critical to reach out to this generation of millennials that have a

Selecting the Best Thermal Building Insulation Using a Multi-Attribute Decision Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

materials which come in various forms. Rock wool, also called mineral wool , is made from natural minerals and was developed in the mid-1800s (NAIMA...2008). Fiberglass is a form of mineral wool and accounts for approximately 85% of the market for residential insulation. Synthetic insulating

Modeling recreation participants' willingness to substitute using multi-attribute indicators

Treesearch

Yung-Ping (Emilio) Tseng; Robert B. Ditton

2008-01-01

A logistic regression was used to predict anglers' resource-substitution decisions based on three dimensions of recreation specialization (behavior, skill and knowledge, and commitment), two dimensions of place attachment (place identity and place dependence), and three demographic indicators. Results indicated that place dependence was the most effective...

Decision Support for Personalized Cloud Service Selection through Multi-Attribute Trustworthiness Evaluation

PubMed Central

Ding, Shuai; Xia, Chen-Yi; Zhou, Kai-Le; Yang, Shan-Lin; Shang, Jennifer S.

2014-01-01

Facing a customer market with rising demands for cloud service dependability and security, trustworthiness evaluation techniques are becoming essential to cloud service selection. But these methods are out of the reach to most customers as they require considerable expertise. Additionally, since the cloud service evaluation is often a costly and time-consuming process, it is not practical to measure trustworthy attributes of all candidates for each customer. Many existing models cannot easily deal with cloud services which have very few historical records. In this paper, we propose a novel service selection approach in which the missing value prediction and the multi-attribute trustworthiness evaluation are commonly taken into account. By simply collecting limited historical records, the current approach is able to support the personalized trustworthy service selection. The experimental results also show that our approach performs much better than other competing ones with respect to the customer preference and expectation in trustworthiness assessment. PMID:24972237

Decision support for personalized cloud service selection through multi-attribute trustworthiness evaluation.

PubMed

Ding, Shuai; Xia, Cheng-Yi; Xia, Chen-Yi; Zhou, Kai-Le; Yang, Shan-Lin; Shang, Jennifer S

2014-01-01

Facing a customer market with rising demands for cloud service dependability and security, trustworthiness evaluation techniques are becoming essential to cloud service selection. But these methods are out of the reach to most customers as they require considerable expertise. Additionally, since the cloud service evaluation is often a costly and time-consuming process, it is not practical to measure trustworthy attributes of all candidates for each customer. Many existing models cannot easily deal with cloud services which have very few historical records. In this paper, we propose a novel service selection approach in which the missing value prediction and the multi-attribute trustworthiness evaluation are commonly taken into account. By simply collecting limited historical records, the current approach is able to support the personalized trustworthy service selection. The experimental results also show that our approach performs much better than other competing ones with respect to the customer preference and expectation in trustworthiness assessment.

Evaluation of infectious diseases and clinical microbiology specialists' preferences for hand hygiene: analysis using the multi-attribute utility theory and the analytic hierarchy process methods.

PubMed

Suner, Aslı; Oruc, Ozlem Ege; Buke, Cagri; Ozkaya, Hacer Deniz; Kitapcioglu, Gul

2017-08-31

Hand hygiene is one of the most effective attempts to control nosocomial infections, and it is an important measure to avoid the transmission of pathogens. However, the compliance of healthcare workers (HCWs) with hand washing is still poor worldwide. Herein, we aimed to determine the best hand hygiene preference of the infectious diseases and clinical microbiology (IDCM) specialists to prevent transmission of microorganisms from one patient to another. Expert opinions regarding the criteria that influence the best hand hygiene preference were collected through a questionnaire via face-to-face interviews. Afterwards, these opinions were examined with two widely used multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A total of 15 IDCM specialist opinions were collected from diverse private and public hospitals located in İzmir, Turkey. The mean age of the participants was 49.73 ± 8.46, and the mean experience year of the participants in their fields was 17.67 ± 11.98. The findings that we obtained through two distinct decision making methods, the MAUT and the AHP, suggest that alcohol-based antiseptic solution (ABAS) has the highest utility (0.86) and priority (0.69) among the experts' choices. In conclusion, the MAUT and the AHP, decision models developed here indicate that rubbing the hands with ABAS is the most favorable choice for IDCM specialists to prevent nosocomial infection.

Trusted Advisors, Decision Models and Other Keys to Communicating Science to Decision Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, E.

2006-12-01

Water resource management decisions often involve multiple parties engaged in contentious negotiations that try to navigate through complex combinations of legal, social, hydrologic, financial, and engineering considerations. The standard approach for resolving these issues is some form of multi-party negotiation, a formal court decision, or a combination of the two. In all these cases, the role of the decision maker(s) is to choose and implement the best option that fits the needs and wants of the community. However, each path to a decision carries the risk of technical and/or financial infeasibility as well as the possibility of unintended consequences. To help reduce this risk, decision makers often rely on some type of predictive analysis from which they can evaluate the projected consequences of their decisions. Typically, decision makers are supported in the analysis process by trusted advisors who engage in the analysis as well as the day to day tasks associated with multi-party negotiations. In the case of water resource management, the analysis is frequently a numerical model or set of models that can simulate various management decisions across multiple systems and output results that illustrate the impact on areas of concern. Thus, in order to communicate scientific knowledge to the decision makers, the quality of the communication between the analysts, the trusted advisor, and the decision maker must be clear and direct. To illustrate this concept, a multi-attribute decision analysis matrix will be used to outline the value of computer model-based collaborative negotiation approaches to guide water resources decision making and communication with decision makers. In addition, the critical role of the trusted advisor and other secondary participants in the decision process will be discussed using examples from recent water negotiations.

SU-E-T-23: A Developing Australian Network for Datamining and Modelling Routine Radiotherapy Clinical Data and Radiomics Information for Rapid Learning and Clinical Decision Support

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thwaites, D; Holloway, L; Bailey, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: Large amounts of routine radiotherapy (RT) data are available, which can potentially add clinical evidence to support better decisions. A developing collaborative Australian network, with a leading European partner, aims to validate, implement and extend European predictive models (PMs) for Australian practice and assess their impact on future patient decisions. Wider objectives include: developing multi-institutional rapid learning, using distributed learning approaches; and assessing and incorporating radiomics information into PMs. Methods: Two initial standalone pilots were conducted; one on NSCLC, the other on larynx, patient datasets in two different centres. Open-source rapid learning systems were installed, for data extraction andmore » mining to collect relevant clinical parameters from the centres’ databases. The European DSSs were learned (“training cohort”) and validated against local data sets (“clinical cohort”). Further NSCLC studies are underway in three more centres to pilot a wider distributed learning network. Initial radiomics work is underway. Results: For the NSCLC pilot, 159/419 patient datasets were identified meeting the PM criteria, and hence eligible for inclusion in the curative clinical cohort (for the larynx pilot, 109/125). Some missing data were imputed using Bayesian methods. For both, the European PMs successfully predicted prognosis groups, but with some differences in practice reflected. For example, the PM-predicted good prognosis NSCLC group was differentiated from a combined medium/poor prognosis group (2YOS 69% vs. 27%, p<0.001). Stage was less discriminatory in identifying prognostic groups. In the good prognosis group two-year overall survival was 65% in curatively and 18% in palliatively treated patients. Conclusion: The technical infrastructure and basic European PMs support prognosis prediction for these Australian patient groups, showing promise for supporting future personalized treatment decisions, improved treatment quality and potential practice changes. The early indications from the distributed learning and radiomics pilots strengthen this. Improved routine patient data quality should strengthen such rapid learning systems.« less

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention

PubMed Central

Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-01-01

Background: Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods: Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology—group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders’ observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results: The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ‘common ground’ among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders’ verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusions: Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ‘common ground’ among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications. PMID:28895928

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention.

PubMed

Al-Hajj, Samar; Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-09-12

Background : Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods : Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology-group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders' observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results : The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ' common g round ' among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders' verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusion s : Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ' common ground' among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications.

Temporary site selection and decision-making methods: a case study of Tehran, Iran.

PubMed

Omidvar, Babak; Baradaran-Shoraka, Mohammad; Nojavan, Mehdi

2013-07-01

Decisions on selecting an appropriate site for temporary shelter used to be taken in a limited amount of time after a disaster. The need for a systematic method in this area inspired the MADM (multi-attribute decision making) for complex disaster management decisions. This research proposes a model for appropriate and systematic site selection for temporary shelters, before an earthquake, using a geographical information system and MADM based on an earthquake damage assessment. After the effective criteria for site selection of temporary shelters are determined, the geographical layers of these criteria are prepared for Municipal District No.1 of Greater Tehran, the capital of Iran. Given these attributes and the required shelter area (415-610 hectares), 14 zones are proposed initially. Various MADM methods are used for the final selection. The mean of the aggregated ranking results are determined, and 10 of the 14 initial zones are ranked. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Measurements of Rationality: Individual Differences in Information Processing, the Transitivity of Preferences and Decision Strategies

PubMed Central

Sleboda, Patrycja; Sokolowska, Joanna

2017-01-01

The first goal of this study was to validate the Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI) and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) through checking their relation to the transitivity axiom. The second goal was to test the relation between decision strategies and cognitive style as well as the relation between decision strategies and the transitivity of preferences. The following characteristics of strategies were investigated: requirements for trade-offs, maximization vs. satisficing and option-wise vs. attribute-wise information processing. Respondents were given choices between two multi-attribute options. The options were designed so that the choice indicated which strategy was applied. Both the REI-R and the CRT were found to be good predictors of the transitivity of preferences. Respondents who applied compensatory strategies and the maximization criterion scored highly on the REI-R and in the CRT, whereas those who applied the satisficing rule scored highly on the REI-R but not in the CRT. Attribute-wise information processing was related to low scores in both measurements. Option-wise information processing led to a high transitivity of preferences. PMID:29093695

Measurements of Rationality: Individual Differences in Information Processing, the Transitivity of Preferences and Decision Strategies.

PubMed

Sleboda, Patrycja; Sokolowska, Joanna

2017-01-01

The first goal of this study was to validate the Rational-Experiential Inventory ( REI ) and the Cognitive Reflection Test ( CRT ) through checking their relation to the transitivity axiom. The second goal was to test the relation between decision strategies and cognitive style as well as the relation between decision strategies and the transitivity of preferences. The following characteristics of strategies were investigated: requirements for trade-offs, maximization vs. satisficing and option-wise vs. attribute-wise information processing. Respondents were given choices between two multi-attribute options. The options were designed so that the choice indicated which strategy was applied. Both the REI-R and the CRT were found to be good predictors of the transitivity of preferences. Respondents who applied compensatory strategies and the maximization criterion scored highly on the REI-R and in the CRT , whereas those who applied the satisficing rule scored highly on the REI-R but not in the CRT . Attribute-wise information processing was related to low scores in both measurements. Option-wise information processing led to a high transitivity of preferences.

Personnel Requirements Consideration in Major Weapon System Acquisition. Research Planning Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

of scientific study of human attributes associated with job performance. Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911) is considered the father of engineering...analysis of nonrelevant factors. Implementation of this plan will result in construction and pilot testing of a computer based branching decision...logic in 1980-81 and field testing and evaluation in 1981-82. . . 1. SSCuaITY CLASIPICATION Op TuiS PAOI(’I.A baa. Seoto, I Finch, F.L., Rigg, K.E. and

Pilot age and error in air taxi crashes.

PubMed

Rebok, George W; Qiang, Yandong; Baker, Susan P; Li, Guohua

2009-07-01

The associations of pilot error with the type of flight operations and basic weather conditions are well documented. The correlation between pilot characteristics and error is less clear. This study aims to examine whether pilot age is associated with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air taxi crashes. Investigation reports from the National Transportation Safety Board for crashes involving non-scheduled Part 135 operations (i.e., air taxis) in the United States between 1983 and 2002 were reviewed to identify pilot error and other contributing factors. Crash circumstances and the presence and type of pilot error were analyzed in relation to pilot age using Chi-square tests. Of the 1751 air taxi crashes studied, 28% resulted from mechanical failure, 25% from loss of control at landing or takeoff, 7% from visual flight rule conditions into instrument meteorological conditions, 7% from fuel starvation, 5% from taxiing, and 28% from other causes. Crashes among older pilots were more likely to occur during the daytime rather than at night and off airport than on airport. The patterns of pilot error in air taxi crashes were similar across age groups. Of the errors identified, 27% were flawed decisions, 26% were inattentiveness, 23% mishandled aircraft kinetics, 15% mishandled wind and/or runway conditions, and 11% were others. Pilot age is associated with crash circumstances but not with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air taxi crashes. Lack of age-related differences in pilot error may be attributable to the "safe worker effect."

Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration in Space System Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, A. M.; Hastings, D. E.

2002-01-01

The complexity inherent in space systems necessarily requires intense expenditures of resources both human and monetary. The high level of ambiguity present in the early design phases of these systems causes long, highly iterative, and costly design cycles. This paper looks at incorporating decision theory methods into the early design processes to streamline communication of wants and needs among stakeholders and between levels of design. Communication channeled through formal utility interviews and analysis enables engineers to better understand the key drivers for the system and allows a more thorough exploration of the design tradespace. Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE), an evolving process incorporating decision theory into model and simulation- based design, has been applied to several space system case studies at MIT. Preliminary results indicate that this process can improve the quality of communication to more quickly resolve project ambiguity, and enable the engineer to discover better value designs for multiple stakeholders. MATE is also being integrated into a concurrent design environment to facilitate the transfer knowledge of important drivers into higher fidelity design phases. Formal utility theory provides a mechanism to bridge the language barrier between experts of different backgrounds and differing needs (e.g. scientists, engineers, managers, etc). MATE with concurrent design couples decision makers more closely to the design, and most importantly, maintains their presence between formal reviews.

D-Side: A Facility and Workforce Planning Group Multi-criteria Decision Support System for Johnson Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavana, Madjid

2005-01-01

"To understand and protect our home planet, to explore the universe and search for life, and to inspire the next generation of explorers" is NASA's mission. The Systems Management Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is searching for methods to effectively manage the Center's resources to meet NASA's mission. D-Side is a group multi-criteria decision support system (GMDSS) developed to support facility decisions at JSC. D-Side uses a series of sequential and structured processes to plot facilities in a three-dimensional (3-D) graph on the basis of each facility alignment with NASA's mission and goals, the extent to which other facilities are dependent on the facility, and the dollar value of capital investments that have been postponed at the facility relative to the facility replacement value. A similarity factor rank orders facilities based on their Euclidean distance from Ideal and Nadir points. These similarity factors are then used to allocate capital improvement resources across facilities. We also present a parallel model that can be used to support decisions concerning allocation of human resources investments across workforce units. Finally, we present results from a pilot study where 12 experienced facility managers from NASA used D-Side and the organization's current approach to rank order and allocate funds for capital improvement across 20 facilities. Users evaluated D-Side favorably in terms of ease of use, the quality of the decision-making process, decision quality, and overall value-added. Their evaluations of D-Side were significantly more favorable than their evaluations of the current approach. Keywords: NASA, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Decision Support System, AHP, Euclidean Distance, 3-D Modeling, Facility Planning, Workforce Planning.

Multi-Attribute Task Battery - Applications in pilot workload and strategic behavior research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnegard, Ruth J.; Comstock, J. R., Jr.

1991-01-01

The Multi-Attribute Task (MAT) Battery provides a benchmark set of tasks for use in a wide range of lab studies of operator performance and workload. The battery incorporates tasks analogous to activities that aircraft crewmembers perform in flight, while providing a high degree of experimenter control, performance data on each subtask, and freedom to nonpilot test subjects. Features not found in existing computer based tasks include an auditory communication task (to simulate Air Traffic Control communication), a resource management task permitting many avenues or strategies of maintaining target performance, a scheduling window which gives the operator information about future task demands, and the option of manual or automated control of tasks. Performance data are generated for each subtask. In addition, the task battery may be paused and onscreen workload rating scales presented to the subject. The MAT Battery requires a desktop computer with color graphics. The communication task requires a serial link to a second desktop computer with a voice synthesizer or digitizer card.

Exploring the impact of different multi-level measures of physician communities in patient-centric care networks on healthcare outcomes: A multi-level regression approach.

PubMed

Uddin, Shahadat

2016-02-04

A patient-centric care network can be defined as a network among a group of healthcare professionals who provide treatments to common patients. Various multi-level attributes of the members of this network have substantial influence to its perceived level of performance. In order to assess the impact different multi-level attributes of patient-centric care networks on healthcare outcomes, this study first captured patient-centric care networks for 85 hospitals using health insurance claim dataset. From these networks, this study then constructed physician collaboration networks based on the concept of patient-sharing network among physicians. A multi-level regression model was then developed to explore the impact of different attributes that are organised at two levels on hospitalisation cost and hospital length of stay. For Level-1 model, the average visit per physician significantly predicted both hospitalisation cost and hospital length of stay. The number of different physicians significantly predicted only the hospitalisation cost, which has significantly been moderated by age, gender and Comorbidity score of patients. All Level-1 findings showed significance variance across physician collaboration networks having different community structure and density. These findings could be utilised as a reflective measure by healthcare decision makers. Moreover, healthcare managers could consider them in developing effective healthcare environments.

A novel design process for selection of attributes for inclusion in discrete choice experiments: case study exploring variation in clinical decision-making about thrombolysis in the treatment of acute ischaemic stroke.

PubMed

De Brún, Aoife; Flynn, Darren; Ternent, Laura; Price, Christopher I; Rodgers, Helen; Ford, Gary A; Rudd, Matthew; Lancsar, Emily; Simpson, Stephen; Teah, John; Thomson, Richard G

2018-06-22

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is a method used to elicit participants' preferences and the relative importance of different attributes and levels within a decision-making process. DCEs have become popular in healthcare; however, approaches to identify the attributes/levels influencing a decision of interest and to selection methods for their inclusion in a DCE are under-reported. Our objectives were: to explore the development process used to select/present attributes/levels from the identified range that may be influential; to describe a systematic and rigorous development process for design of a DCE in the context of thrombolytic therapy for acute stroke; and, to discuss the advantages of our five-stage approach to enhance current guidance for developing DCEs. A five-stage DCE development process was undertaken. Methods employed included literature review, qualitative analysis of interview and ethnographic data, expert panel discussions, a quantitative structured prioritisation (ranking) exercise and pilot testing of the DCE using a 'think aloud' approach. The five-stage process reported helped to reduce the list of 22 initial patient-related factors to a final set of nine variable factors and six fixed factors for inclusion in a testable DCE using a vignette model of presentation. In order for the data and conclusions generated by DCEs to be deemed valid, it is crucial that the methods of design and development are documented and reported. This paper has detailed a rigorous and systematic approach to DCE development which may be useful to researchers seeking to establish methods for reducing and prioritising attributes for inclusion in future DCEs.

Modelling decision-making by pilots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

1993-01-01

Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

Pilot Decision-Making Training

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

Pilot Decisional Attitude Questionnaire (PDAQ). 2. Aeronautical Decision Making . a. The pilot judgment problem b. Relationship of judgment to training...lmEr OAT . REPOR TYPE ANO GATES COVEIRO May 1990 Final - June 1985 - December 1988 4 .MU AN m . .m m t 4i C ’u. SUM L FUNING MUMBRS Pilot Decision - Making ...13 AGSTRACT (Maxu’m 200 wo f -The effectiveness of a simulator-based approach to training pilot skills in risk assessment and decision making was

Zoning of an agricultural field using a fuzzy indicator model in combination with tool for multi-attributed decision-making

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Zoning of agricultural fields is an important task for utilization of precision farming technology. This paper extends previously published work entitled “Zoning of an agricultural field using a fuzzy indicator model” to a general case where there is disagreement between groups of managers or expert...

Information networks in the stock market based on the distance of the multi-attribute dimensions between listed companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qian; Li, Huajiao; Liu, Xueyong; Jiang, Meihui

2018-04-01

In the stock market, there are widespread information connections between economic agents. Listed companies can obtain mutual information about investment decisions from common shareholders, and the extent of sharing information often determines the relationships between listed companies. Because different shareholder compositions and investment shares lead to different formations of the company's governance mechanisms, we map the investment relationships between shareholders to the multi-attribute dimensional spaces of the listed companies (each shareholder investment in a company is a company dimension). Then, we construct the listed company's information network based on co-shareholder relationships. The weights for the edges in the information network are measured with the Euclidean distance between the listed companies in the multi-attribute dimension space. We define two indices to analyze the information network's features. We conduct an empirical study that analyzes Chinese listed companies' information networks. The results from the analysis show that with the diversification and decentralization of shareholder investments, almost all Chinese listed companies exchanged information through common shareholder relationships, and there is a gradual reduction in information sharing capacity between listed companies that have common shareholders. This network analysis has benefits for risk management and portfolio investments.

Pilot Age and Error in Air-Taxi Crashes

PubMed Central

Rebok, George W.; Qiang, Yandong; Baker, Susan P.; Li, Guohua

2010-01-01

Introduction The associations of pilot error with the type of flight operations and basic weather conditions are well documented. The correlation between pilot characteristics and error is less clear. This study aims to examine whether pilot age is associated with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air-taxi crashes. Methods Investigation reports from the National Transportation Safety Board for crashes involving non-scheduled Part 135 operations (i.e., air taxis) in the United States between 1983 and 2002 were reviewed to identify pilot error and other contributing factors. Crash circumstances and the presence and type of pilot error were analyzed in relation to pilot age using Chi-square tests. Results Of the 1751 air-taxi crashes studied, 28% resulted from mechanical failure, 25% from loss of control at landing or takeoff, 7% from visual flight rule conditions into instrument meteorological conditions, 7% from fuel starvation, 5% from taxiing, and 28% from other causes. Crashes among older pilots were more likely to occur during the daytime rather than at night and off airport than on airport. The patterns of pilot error in air-taxi crashes were similar across age groups. Of the errors identified, 27% were flawed decisions, 26% were inattentiveness, 23% mishandled aircraft kinetics, 15% mishandled wind and/or runway conditions, and 11% were others. Conclusions Pilot age is associated with crash circumstances but not with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air-taxi crashes. Lack of age-related differences in pilot error may be attributable to the “safe worker effect.” PMID:19601508

Evaluation and selection of decision-making methods to assess landfill mining projects.

PubMed

Hermann, Robert; Baumgartner, Rupert J; Vorbach, Stefan; Ragossnig, Arne; Pomberger, Roland

2015-09-01

For the first time in Austria, fundamental technological and economic studies on recovering secondary raw materials from large landfills have been carried out, based on the 'LAMIS - Landfill Mining Austria' pilot project. A main focus of the research - and the subject of this article - was to develop an assessment or decision-making procedure that allows landfill owners to thoroughly examine the feasibility of a landfill mining project in advance. Currently there are no standard procedures that would sufficiently cover all the multiple-criteria requirements. The basic structure of the multiple attribute decision making process was used to narrow down on selection, conceptual design and assessment of suitable procedures. Along with a breakdown into preliminary and main assessment, the entire foundation required was created, such as definitions of requirements to an assessment method, selection and accurate description of the various assessment criteria and classification of the target system for the present 'landfill mining' vs. 'retaining the landfill in after-care' decision-making problem. Based on these studies, cost-utility analysis and the analytical-hierarchy process were selected from the range of multiple attribute decision-making procedures and examined in detail. Overall, both methods have their pros and cons with regard to their use for assessing landfill mining projects. Merging these methods or connecting them with single-criteria decision-making methods (like the net present value method) may turn out to be reasonable and constitute an appropriate assessment method. © The Author(s) 2015.

Visual Attention Allocation Between Robotic Arm and Environmental Process Control: Validating the STOM Task Switching Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickens, Christopher; Vieanne, Alex; Clegg, Benjamin; Sebok, Angelia; Janes, Jessica

2015-01-01

Fifty six participants time shared a spacecraft environmental control system task with a realistic space robotic arm control task in either a manual or highly automated version. The former could suffer minor failures, whose diagnosis and repair were supported by a decision aid. At the end of the experiment this decision aid unexpectedly failed. We measured visual attention allocation and switching between the two tasks, in each of the eight conditions formed by manual-automated arm X expected-unexpected failure X monitoring- failure management. We also used our multi-attribute task switching model, based on task attributes of priority interest, difficulty and salience that were self-rated by participants, to predict allocation. An un-weighted model based on attributes of difficulty, interest and salience accounted for 96 percent of the task allocation variance across the 8 different conditions. Task difficulty served as an attractor, with more difficult tasks increasing the tendency to stay on task.

Maclaurin symmetric mean operators of linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and their application to multiple-attribute decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Peide; Qin, Xiyou

2017-11-01

Linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy number (LIFN) is a special intuitionistic fuzzy number which can more easily describe the vagueness existing in the real decision-making. Maclaurin symmetric mean (MSM) operator has the characteristic of considering the interrelationships among any number of input parameters. In this paper, we extended the MSM operator to the LIFNs and some extended MSM operators for LIFNs were proposed, some new decision-making methods were developed. Firstly, we introduced the definition, score function, properties and operational rules of the LIFNs. Then, we proposed some linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy MSM operators, such as linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy Maclaurin symmetric mean operator, weighted linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy Maclaurin symmetric mean (WLIFMSM) operator, linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy dual Maclaurin symmetric mean operator, weighted linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy dual Maclaurin symmetric mean (WLIFDMSM) operator. In the meantime, we studied some important properties of these operators, and developed some methods based on WLIFMSM operator and WLIFDMSM operator for multi-attribute decision-making. Finally, we use an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Pilot Convective Weather Decision Making in En Route Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Gooding, Cary L.; Shelley, Alexandra E.; Duong, Constance G.; Johnson, Walter W.

2012-01-01

The present research investigates characteristics exhibited in pilot convective weather decision making in en route airspace. In a part-task study, pilots performed weather avoidance under various encounter scenarios. Results showed that the margins of safety that pilots maintain from storms are as fluid as deviation decisions themselves.

Technology selection for ballast water treatment by multi-stakeholders: A multi-attribute decision analysis approach based on the combined weights and extension theory.

PubMed

Ren, Jingzheng

2018-01-01

This objective of this study is to develop a generic multi-attribute decision analysis framework for ranking the technologies for ballast water treatment and determine their grades. An evaluation criteria system consisting of eight criteria in four categories was used to evaluate the technologies for ballast water treatment. The Best-Worst method, which is a subjective weighting method and Criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation method, which is an objective weighting method, were combined to determine the weights of the evaluation criteria. The extension theory was employed to prioritize the technologies for ballast water treatment and determine their grades. An illustrative case including four technologies for ballast water treatment, i.e. Alfa Laval (T 1 ), Hyde (T 2 ), Unitor (T 3 ), and NaOH (T 4 ), were studied by the proposed method, and the Hyde (T 2 ) was recognized as the best technology. Sensitivity analysis was also carried to investigate the effects of the combined coefficients and the weights of the evaluation criteria on the final priority order of the four technologies for ballast water treatment. The sum weighted method and the TOPSIS was also employed to rank the four technologies, and the results determined by these two methods are consistent to that determined by the proposed method in this study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prioritizing health technologies in a Primary Care Trust.

PubMed

Wilson, Edward; Sussex, Jon; Macleod, Christine; Fordham, Richard

2007-04-01

In the English National Health Service (NHS), Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) are responsible for commissioning health-care services on behalf of their populations. As resources are finite, decisions are required as to which services best fulfil population needs. Evidence on effectiveness varies in quality and availability. Nevertheless, decisions still have to be made. We report the development and pilot application of a multi-criteria prioritization mechanism in an English PCT, capable of accommodating a wide variety of evidence to rank six service developments. The mechanism proved valuable in assisting prioritization decisions and feedback was positive. Two community-based interventions were expected to save money in the long term and were ranked at the top of the list. Based on weighted benefit score and cost, two preventive programmes were ranked third and fourth. Finally, two National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)-approved interventions were ranked fifth and sixth. Sensitivity analysis revealed overlap in benefit scores for some of the interventions, representing diversity of opinion among the scoring panel. The method appears to be a practical approach to prioritization for commissioners of health care, but the pilot also revealed interesting divergences in relative priority between nationally mandated service developments and local health-care priorities.

Schizophrenia: multi-attribute utility theory approach to selection of atypical antipsychotics.

PubMed

Bettinger, Tawny L; Shuler, Garyn; Jones, Donnamaria R; Wilson, James P

2007-02-01

Current guidelines/algorithms recommend atypical antipsychotics as first-line agents for the treatment of schizophrenia. Because there are extensive healthcare costs associated with the treatment of schizophrenia, many institutions and health systems are faced with making restrictive formulary decisions regarding the use of atypical antipsychotics. Often, medication acquisition costs are the driving force behind formulary decisions, while other treatment factors are not considered. To apply a multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) analysis to aid in the selection of a preferred agent among the atypical antipsychotics for the treatment of schizophrenia. Five atypical antipsychotics (risperidone, olanzapine, quetiapine, ziprasidone, aripiprazole) were selected as the alternative agents to be included in the MAUT analysis. The attributes identified for inclusion in the analysis were efficacy, adverse effects, cost, and adherence, with relative weights of 35%, 35%, 20%, and 10%, respectively. For each agent, attribute scores were calculated, weighted, and then summed to generate a total utility score. The agent with the highest total utility score was considered the preferred agent. Aripiprazole, with a total utility score of 75.8, was the alternative agent with the highest total utility score in this model. This was followed by ziprasidone, risperidone, and quetiapine, with total utility scores of 71.8, 69.0, and 65.9, respectively. Olanzapine received the lowest total utility score. A sensitivity analysis was performed and failed to displace aripiprazole as the agent with the highest total utility score. This model suggests that aripiprazole should be considered a preferred agent for the treatment of schizophrenia unless found to be otherwise inappropriate.

Intelligent Pilot Aids for Flight Re-Planning in Emergencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pritchett, Amy R.; Ockerman, Jennifer

2005-01-01

Effective and safe control of an aircraft may be difficult or nearly impossible for a pilot following an unexpected system failure. Without prior training, the pilot must ascertain on the fly those changes in both manual control technique and procedures that will lead to a safe landing of the aircraft. Sophisticated techniques for determining the required control techniques are now available. Likewise, a body of literature on pilot decision making provides formalisms for examining how pilots approach discrete decisions framed as the selection between options. However, other aspects of behavior, such as the task of route planning and guidance, are not as well studied. Not only is the pilot faced with possible performance changes to the aircraft dynamics, but he or she is also tasked to create a plan of actions that will effectively take the aircraft down to a safe landing. In this plan, the many actions that the pilot can perform are closely intertwined with the trajectory of the aircraft, making it difficult to accurately predict the final outcome. Coupled with the vast number of potential actions to be taken, this problem may seem intractable. This is reflected in the lack of a pre-specified procedure capable of giving pilots the ability to find a resolution for this task. This report summarizes a multi-year effort to examine methods to aid pilots in planning an approach and arrival to an airport following an aircraft systems failure. Ultimately, we hypothesize that automatic assistance to pilots can be provided in real-time in the form of improving pilot control of a damaged aircraft and providing pilots with procedural directives suitable for critical flight conditions; such systems may also benefit pilot training and procedure design. To achieve this result, a systematic, comprehensive research program was followed, building on prior research. This approach included a pencil-and-paper study with airline pilots examining methods of representing a flight route in an immediately understandable manner, and in a manner that would allow the pilot to modify an automatically-generated route and/or detect any inappropriate elements in an automatically-generated route. Likewise, a flight simulator study examined different cockpit systems for the relative merits of providing pilots with any of a variety of automated functions for emergency flight planning. The results provide specific guidance for the design of such systems.

Ontological approach for safe and effective polypharmacy prescription

PubMed Central

Grando, Adela; Farrish, Susan; Boyd, Cynthia; Boxwala, Aziz

2012-01-01

The intake of multiple medications in patients with various medical conditions challenges the delivery of medical care. Initial empirical studies and pilot implementations seem to indicate that generic safe and effective multi-drug prescription principles could be defined and reused to reduce adverse drug events and to support compliance with medical guidelines and drug formularies. Given that ontologies are known to provide well-principled, sharable, setting-independent and machine-interpretable declarative specification frameworks for modeling and reasoning on biomedical problems, we explore here their use in the context of multi-drug prescription. We propose an ontology for modeling drug-related knowledge and a repository of safe and effective generic prescription principles. To test the usability and the level of granularity of the developed ontology-based specification models and heuristic we implemented a tool that computes the complexity of multi-drug treatments, and a decision aid to check the safeness and effectiveness of prescribed multi-drug treatments. PMID:23304299

Visualization of multi-INT fusion data using Java Viewer (JVIEW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blasch, Erik; Aved, Alex; Nagy, James; Scott, Stephen

2014-05-01

Visualization is important for multi-intelligence fusion and we demonstrate issues for presenting physics-derived (i.e., hard) and human-derived (i.e., soft) fusion results. Physics-derived solutions (e.g., imagery) typically involve sensor measurements that are objective, while human-derived (e.g., text) typically involve language processing. Both results can be geographically displayed for user-machine fusion. Attributes of an effective and efficient display are not well understood, so we demonstrate issues and results for filtering, correlation, and association of data for users - be they operators or analysts. Operators require near-real time solutions while analysts have the opportunities of non-real time solutions for forensic analysis. In a use case, we demonstrate examples using the JVIEW concept that has been applied to piloting, space situation awareness, and cyber analysis. Using the open-source JVIEW software, we showcase a big data solution for multi-intelligence fusion application for context-enhanced information fusion.

Examining the Pilot and Controller Performance Data When in a Free Flight with Weather Phenomenon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nituen, Celestine A.; Lozito, Sandra C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The present study investigated effects of weather related factors on the performance of pilots under free flight. A weather scenario was defined by a combination of precipitation factors (light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain or snow), visibility (1,4,8 miles), wind conditions (light, medium, or heavy), cloud ceiling (800ft. below, 1800ft above, and 4000ft horizontal). The performance of the aircraft self-separation was evaluated in terms of detection accuracy and detection times for student- and commercial (expert) pilots. Overall, the results obtained from a behavioral analysis showed that in general, the ability to recognize intruder aircraft conflict incidents, followed by the ability to acquire the spatial location of the intruder aircraft relative to ownership aircraft were judged to be the major cognitive tasks as perceived by the participants during self-separation. Further, the participants rarely used cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) during conflict management related to aircraft separation, but used CDTI highly during decision-making tasks. In all weather scenarios, there were remarkable differences between expert and student pilots in detection times. In summary, weather scenarios were observed to affect intruder aircraft detection performance accuracies. There was interaction effects between weather Scenario-1 and Scenario-2 for climbing task data generated by both expert- and student- pilots at high traffic density. Scenario-3 weather condition provided an opportunity for poor detection accuracy as well as detection time increase. This may be attributed to low visibility. The intruder aircraft detection times were not affected by the weather conditions during climbing and descending tasks. The decision of pilots to fly into certain weather condition was dependent in part on the warning distance to the location of the weather. When pilots were warned of the weather conditions, they were more likely to fly their aircraft into it, but mostly when the warning was not close to the weather location.

Using multi-attribute decision-making approaches in the selection of a hospital management system.

PubMed

Arasteh, Mohammad Ali; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Yee, Por Lip

2018-01-01

The most appropriate organizational software is always a real challenge for managers, especially, the IT directors. The illustration of the term "enterprise software selection", is to purchase, create, or order a software that; first, is best adapted to require of the organization; and second, has suitable price and technical support. Specifying selection criteria and ranking them, is the primary prerequisite for this action. This article provides a method to evaluate, rank, and compare the available enterprise software for choosing the apt one. The prior mentioned method is constituted of three-stage processes. First, the method identifies the organizational requires and assesses them. Second, it selects the best method throughout three possibilities; indoor-production, buying software, and ordering special software for the native use. Third, the method evaluates, compares and ranks the alternative software. The third process uses different methods of multi attribute decision making (MADM), and compares the consequent results. Based on different characteristics of the problem; several methods had been tested, namely, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Elimination and Choice Expressing Reality (ELECTURE), and easy weight method. After all, we propose the most practical method for same problems.

Experimental analysis of multi-attribute decision-making based on Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy sets: a discussion of anchor dependency and accuracy functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Yu

2012-06-01

This article presents a useful method for relating anchor dependency and accuracy functions to multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problems in the context of Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy sets (A-IFSs). Considering anchored judgement with displaced ideals and solution precision with minimal hesitation, several auxiliary optimisation models have proposed to obtain the optimal weights of the attributes and to acquire the corresponding TOPSIS (the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution) index for alternative rankings. Aside from the TOPSIS index, as a decision-maker's personal characteristics and own perception of self may also influence the direction in the axiom of choice, the evaluation of alternatives is conducted based on distances of each alternative from the positive and negative ideal alternatives, respectively. This article originates from Li's [Li, D.-F. (2005), 'Multiattribute Decision Making Models and Methods Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets', Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 70, 73-85] work, which is a seminal study of intuitionistic fuzzy decision analysis using deduced auxiliary programming models, and deems it a benchmark method for comparative studies on anchor dependency and accuracy functions. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methods are illustrated by a numerical example. Finally, a comparative analysis is illustrated with computational experiments on averaging accuracy functions, TOPSIS indices, separation measures from positive and negative ideal alternatives, consistency rates of ranking orders, contradiction rates of the top alternative and average Spearman correlation coefficients.

Visualization-based decision support for value-driven system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tibor, Elliott

In the past 50 years, the military, communication, and transportation systems that permeate our world, have grown exponentially in size and complexity. The development and production of these systems has seen ballooning costs and increased risk. This is particularly critical for the aerospace industry. The inability to deal with growing system complexity is a crippling force in the advancement of engineered systems. Value-Driven Design represents a paradigm shift in the field of design engineering that has potential to help counteract this trend. The philosophy of Value-Driven Design places the desires of the stakeholder at the forefront of the design process to capture true preferences and reveal system alternatives that were never previously thought possible. Modern aerospace engineering design problems are large, complex, and involve multiple levels of decision-making. To find the best design, the decision-maker is often required to analyze hundreds or thousands of combinations of design variables and attributes. Visualization can be used to support these decisions, by communicating large amounts of data in a meaningful way. Understanding the design space, the subsystem relationships, and the design uncertainties is vital to the advancement of Value-Driven Design as an accepted process for the development of more effective, efficient, robust, and elegant aerospace systems. This research investigates the use of multi-dimensional data visualization tools to support decision-making under uncertainty during the Value-Driven Design process. A satellite design system comprising a satellite, ground station, and launch vehicle is used to demonstrate effectiveness of new visualization methods to aid in decision support during complex aerospace system design. These methods are used to facilitate the exploration of the feasible design space by representing the value impact of system attribute changes and comparing the results of multi-objective optimization formulations with a Value-Driven Design formulation. The visualization methods are also used to assist in the decomposition of a value function, by representing attribute sensitivities to aid with trade-off studies. Lastly, visualization is used to enable greater understanding of the subsystem relationships, by displaying derivative-based couplings, and the design uncertainties, through implementation of utility theory. The use of these visualization methods is shown to enhance the decision-making capabilities of the designer by granting them a more holistic view of the complex design space.

Failure to detect critical auditory alerts in the cockpit: evidence for inattentional deafness.

PubMed

Dehais, Frédéric; Causse, Mickaël; Vachon, François; Régis, Nicolas; Menant, Eric; Tremblay, Sébastien

2014-06-01

The aim of this study was to test whether inattentional deafness to critical alarms would be observed in a simulated cockpit. The inability of pilots to detect unexpected changes in their auditory environment (e.g., alarms) is a major safety problem in aeronautics. In aviation, the lack of response to alarms is usually not attributed to attentional limitations, but rather to pilots choosing to ignore such warnings due to decision biases, hearing issues, or conscious risk taking. Twenty-eight general aviation pilots performed two landings in a flight simulator. In one scenario an auditory alert was triggered alone, whereas in the other the auditory alert occurred while the pilots dealt with a critical windshear. In the windshear scenario, II pilots (39.3%) did not report or react appropriately to the alarm whereas all the pilots perceived the auditory warning in the no-windshear scenario. Also, of those pilots who were first exposed to the no-windshear scenario and detected the alarm, only three suffered from inattentional deafness in the subsequent windshear scenario. These findings establish inattentional deafness as a cognitive phenomenon that is critical for air safety. Pre-exposure to a critical event triggering an auditory alarm can enhance alarm detection when a similar event is encountered subsequently. Case-based learning is a solution to mitigate auditory alarm misperception.

Distributed Cooperation Solution Method of Complex System Based on MAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijin, Jiang; Yuhui, Xu

To adapt the model in reconfiguring fault diagnosing to dynamic environment and the needs of solving the tasks of complex system fully, the paper introduced multi-Agent and related technology to the complicated fault diagnosis, an integrated intelligent control system is studied in this paper. Based on the thought of the structure of diagnostic decision and hierarchy in modeling, based on multi-layer decomposition strategy of diagnosis task, a multi-agent synchronous diagnosis federation integrated different knowledge expression modes and inference mechanisms are presented, the functions of management agent, diagnosis agent and decision agent are analyzed, the organization and evolution of agents in the system are proposed, and the corresponding conflict resolution algorithm in given, Layered structure of abstract agent with public attributes is build. System architecture is realized based on MAS distributed layered blackboard. The real world application shows that the proposed control structure successfully solves the fault diagnose problem of the complex plant, and the special advantage in the distributed domain.

Is there a role for physician involvement in introducing research to surrogate decision makers in the intensive care unit? (The Approach trial: a pilot mixed methods study).

PubMed

Burns, K E A; Rizvi, L; Smith, O M; Lee, Y; Lee, J; Wang, M; Brown, M; Parker, M; Premji, A; Leung, D; Hammond Mobilio, M; Gotlib-Conn, L; Nisenbaum, R; Santos, M; Li, Y; Mehta, S

2015-01-01

To assess the feasibility of conducting a randomized trial comparing two strategies [physician (MD) vs. non-physician (non-MD)] for approaching substitute decision makers (SDMs) for research and to evaluate SDMs' experiences in being approached for consent. A pilot mixed methods study of first encounters with SDMs. Of 137 SDMs (162 eligibility events), 67 and 70 were randomized to MD and non-MD introductions, respectively. Eighty SDMs (98 events) provided consent and 21 SDMs (24 events) declined consent for studies, including 2 SDMs who provided and declined consent. We identified few missed introductions [4/52 (7.7 %)] and protocol violations [6/117 (5.1 %)], high comfort, satisfaction and acceptance scores and similar consent rates in both arms. SDMs provided consent significantly more often when a patient update was provided in the MD arm. Most SDMs (85.7 %) felt that physician involvement was inconsequential and preferred physician time to be dedicated to patient care; however, SDM experiences were closely related to their recall of being approached and recall was poor. SDMs highlighted 7 themes of importance to them in research surrogate decision-making. SDMs prioritized the personal attributes of the person approaching them over professional designation and preferred physician time to be dedicated to patient care. A mixed methods design evaluated intervention fidelity and provided the rationale for not proceeding to a larger trial, despite achieving all feasibility metrics in the pilot trial. NCT01232621.

Take-the-best and the influence of decision-inconsistent attributes on decision confidence and choices in memory-based decisions.

PubMed

Dummel, Sebastian; Rummel, Jan

2016-11-01

Take-the-best (TTB) is a decision strategy according to which attributes about choice options are sequentially processed in descending order of validity, and attribute processing is stopped once an attribute discriminates between options. Consequently, TTB-decisions rely on only one, the best discriminating, attribute, and lower-valid attributes need not be processed because they are TTB-irrelevant. Recent research suggests, however, that when attribute information is visually present during decision-making, TTB-irrelevant attributes are processed and integrated into decisions nonetheless. To examine whether TTB-irrelevant attributes are retrieved and integrated when decisions are made memory-based, we tested whether the consistency of a TTB-irrelevant attribute affects TTB-users' decision behaviour in a memory-based decision task. Participants first learned attribute configurations of several options. Afterwards, they made several decisions between two of the options, and we manipulated conflict between the second-best attribute and the TTB-decision. We assessed participants' decision confidence and the proportion of TTB-inconsistent choices. According to TTB, TTB-irrelevant attributes should not affect confidence and choices, because these attributes should not be retrieved. Results showed, however, that TTB-users were less confident and made more TTB-inconsistent choices when TTB-irrelevant information was in conflict with the TTB-decision than when it was not, suggesting that TTB-users retrieved and integrated TTB-irrelevant information.

Grey Language Hesitant Fuzzy Group Decision Making Method Based on Kernel and Grey Scale

PubMed Central

Diao, Yuzhu; Hu, Aqin

2018-01-01

Based on grey language multi-attribute group decision making, a kernel and grey scale scoring function is put forward according to the definition of grey language and the meaning of the kernel and grey scale. The function introduces grey scale into the decision-making method to avoid information distortion. This method is applied to the grey language hesitant fuzzy group decision making, and the grey correlation degree is used to sort the schemes. The effectiveness and practicability of the decision-making method are further verified by the industry chain sustainable development ability evaluation example of a circular economy. Moreover, its simplicity and feasibility are verified by comparing it with the traditional grey language decision-making method and the grey language hesitant fuzzy weighted arithmetic averaging (GLHWAA) operator integration method after determining the index weight based on the grey correlation. PMID:29498699

Grey Language Hesitant Fuzzy Group Decision Making Method Based on Kernel and Grey Scale.

PubMed

Li, Qingsheng; Diao, Yuzhu; Gong, Zaiwu; Hu, Aqin

2018-03-02

Based on grey language multi-attribute group decision making, a kernel and grey scale scoring function is put forward according to the definition of grey language and the meaning of the kernel and grey scale. The function introduces grey scale into the decision-making method to avoid information distortion. This method is applied to the grey language hesitant fuzzy group decision making, and the grey correlation degree is used to sort the schemes. The effectiveness and practicability of the decision-making method are further verified by the industry chain sustainable development ability evaluation example of a circular economy. Moreover, its simplicity and feasibility are verified by comparing it with the traditional grey language decision-making method and the grey language hesitant fuzzy weighted arithmetic averaging (GLHWAA) operator integration method after determining the index weight based on the grey correlation.

Visual analytics techniques for large multi-attribute time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Ming C.; Dayal, Umeshwar; Keim, Daniel A.

2008-01-01

Time series data commonly occur when variables are monitored over time. Many real-world applications involve the comparison of long time series across multiple variables (multi-attributes). Often business people want to compare this year's monthly sales with last year's sales to make decisions. Data warehouse administrators (DBAs) want to know their daily data loading job performance. DBAs need to detect the outliers early enough to act upon them. In this paper, two new visual analytic techniques are introduced: The color cell-based Visual Time Series Line Charts and Maps highlight significant changes over time in a long time series data and the new Visual Content Query facilitates finding the contents and histories of interesting patterns and anomalies, which leads to root cause identification. We have applied both methods to two real-world applications to mine enterprise data warehouse and customer credit card fraud data to illustrate the wide applicability and usefulness of these techniques.

Risk Taking and Decision Making in Kidney Paired Donation: A Qualitative Study by Semistructured Interviews.

PubMed

Baines, L S; Dulku, H; Jindal, R M; Papalois, V

2018-06-01

Despite excellent outcomes of kidney paired donation (KPD), little is known about how a patient's frame (apply cognitive bias) or weight (attribute value) and concerns relating to risk, justice, and equity affect his or her decision-making process. A pilot study consisting of 3 KPD transplant recipients and 3 KPD kidney donors in the last year was conducted to identify and explore themes in decision making and risk taking. The pilot study was followed by the main study comprised of 20 recipients who had already undergone KPD transplantation and 20 donors who had undergone donor nephrectomy. We conducted semistructured interviews in this cohort and analyzed the data thematically. Each donor-recipient pair was interviewed together to facilitate dyadic conversation and provide deeper insight into the decision-making process leading to transplant and donation. Common themes to both recipient and donor decision making included quality of life; characteristics of the unknown donor and post-transplant expectations. Recipient-specific themes included failure to reach life span milestones, experiences of fellow patients, and altruistic desire to expand the donor pool. Donor-specific themes included balancing existing life commitments with the recipient's need for a kidney, equity and mental accounting in kidney exchange (comparable quality of the kidney received versus the kidney donated), and logistical justice for the recipient. Donors and recipients frame and weight the concepts of risk, justice, and equity differently. This may have direct implications to facilitating patient-centered communication and engagement in KPD pairs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An investigation into pilot and system response to critical in-flight events. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rockwell, T. H.; Griffin, W. C.

1981-01-01

Critical in-flight events (CIFE) that threaten the aircraft were studied. The scope of the CIFE was described and defined with emphasis on characterizing event development, detection and assessment; pilot information requirements, sources, acquisition, and interpretation, pilot response options, decision processed, and decision implementation and event outcome. Detailed scenarios were developed for use in simulators and paper and pencil testing for developing relationships between pilot performance and background information as well as for an analysis of pilot reaction decision and feedback processes. Statistical relationships among pilot characteristics and observed responses to CIFE's were developed.

Operator selection for unmanned aerial systems: comparing video game players and pilots.

PubMed

McKinley, R Andy; McIntire, Lindsey K; Funke, Margaret A

2011-06-01

Popular unmanned aerial system (UAS) platforms such as the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper have experienced accelerated operations tempos that have outpaced current operator training regimens, leading to a shortage of qualified UAS operators. To find a surrogate to replace pilots of manned aircraft as UAS operators, this study evaluated video game players (VGPs), pilots, and a control group on a set of UAS operation relevant cognitive tasks. There were 30 participants who volunteered for this study and were divided into 3 groups: experienced pilots (P), experienced VGPs, and a control group (C). Each was trained on eight cognitive performance tasks relevant to unmanned flight tasks. The results indicated that pilots significantly outperform the VGP and control groups on multi-attribute cognitive tasks (Tank mean: VGP = 465 +/- 1.046 vs. P = 203 +/- 0.237 vs. C = 351 +/- 0.601). However, the VGPs outperformed pilots on cognitive tests related to visually acquiring, identifying, and tracking targets (final score: VGP = 594.28 +/- 8.708 vs. P = 563.33 +/- 8.787 vs. C = 568.21 +/- 8.224). Likewise, both VGPs and pilots performed similarly on the UAS landing task, but outperformed the control group (glide slope: VGP = 40.982 +/- 3.244 vs. P = 30.461 +/- 2.251 vs. C = 57.060 +/- 4.407). Cognitive skills learned in video game play may transfer to novel environments and improve performance in UAS tasks over individuals with no video game experience.

Value-Based Assessment of New Medical Technologies: Towards a Robust Methodological Framework for the Application of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis in the Context of Health Technology Assessment.

PubMed

Angelis, Aris; Kanavos, Panos

2016-05-01

In recent years, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has emerged as a likely alternative to address shortcomings in health technology assessment (HTA) by offering a more holistic perspective to value assessment and acting as an alternative priority setting tool. In this paper, we argue that MCDA needs to subscribe to robust methodological processes related to the selection of objectives, criteria and attributes in order to be meaningful in the context of healthcare decision making and fulfil its role in value-based assessment (VBA). We propose a methodological process, based on multi-attribute value theory (MAVT) methods comprising five distinct phases, outline the stages involved in each phase and discuss their relevance in the HTA process. Importantly, criteria and attributes need to satisfy a set of desired properties, otherwise the outcome of the analysis can produce spurious results and misleading recommendations. Assuming the methodological process we propose is adhered to, the application of MCDA presents three very distinct advantages to decision makers in the context of HTA and VBA: first, it acts as an instrument for eliciting preferences on the performance of alternative options across a wider set of explicit criteria, leading to a more complete assessment of value; second, it allows the elicitation of preferences across the criteria themselves to reflect differences in their relative importance; and, third, the entire process of preference elicitation can be informed by direct stakeholder engagement, and can therefore reflect their own preferences. All features are fully transparent and facilitate decision making.

Higher landing accuracy in expert pilots is associated with lower activity in the caudate nucleus.

PubMed

Adamson, Maheen M; Taylor, Joy L; Heraldez, Daniel; Khorasani, Allen; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Yesavage, Jerome A

2014-01-01

The most common lethal accidents in General Aviation are caused by improperly executed landing approaches in which a pilot descends below the minimum safe altitude without proper visual references. To understand how expertise might reduce such erroneous decision-making, we examined relevant neural processes in pilots performing a simulated landing approach inside a functional MRI scanner. Pilots (aged 20-66) were asked to "fly" a series of simulated "cockpit view" instrument landing scenarios in an MRI scanner. The scenarios were either high risk (heavy fog-legally unsafe to land) or low risk (medium fog-legally safe to land). Pilots with one of two levels of expertise participated: Moderate Expertise (Instrument Flight Rules pilots, n = 8) or High Expertise (Certified Instrument Flight Instructors or Air-Transport Pilots, n = 12). High Expertise pilots were more accurate than Moderate Expertise pilots in making a "land" versus "do not land" decision (CFII: d' = 3.62 ± 2.52; IFR: d' = 0.98 ± 1.04; p<.01). Brain activity in bilateral caudate nucleus was examined for main effects of expertise during a "land" versus "do not land" decision with the no-decision control condition modeled as baseline. In making landing decisions, High Expertise pilots showed lower activation in the bilateral caudate nucleus (0.97 ± 0.80) compared to Moderate Expertise pilots (1.91 ± 1.16) (p<.05). These findings provide evidence for increased "neural efficiency" in High Expertise pilots relative to Moderate Expertise pilots. During an instrument approach the pilot is engaged in detailed examination of flight instruments while monitoring certain visual references for making landing decisions. The caudate nucleus regulates saccade eye control of gaze, the brain area where the "expertise" effect was observed. These data provide evidence that performing "real world" aviation tasks in an fMRI provide objective data regarding the relative expertise of pilots and brain regions involved in it.

Sustainability assessment of tertiary wastewater treatment technologies: a multi-criteria analysis.

PubMed

Plakas, K V; Georgiadis, A A; Karabelas, A J

2016-01-01

The multi-criteria analysis gives the opportunity to researchers, designers and decision-makers to examine decision options in a multi-dimensional fashion. On this basis, four tertiary wastewater treatment (WWT) technologies were assessed regarding their sustainability performance in producing recycled wastewater, considering a 'triple bottom line' approach (i.e. economic, environmental, and social). These are powdered activated carbon adsorption coupled with ultrafiltration membrane separation (PAC-UF), reverse osmosis, ozone/ultraviolet-light oxidation and heterogeneous photo-catalysis coupled with low-pressure membrane separation (photocatalytic membrane reactor, PMR). The participatory method called simple multi-attribute rating technique exploiting ranks was employed for assigning weights to selected sustainability indicators. This sustainability assessment approach resulted in the development of a composite index as a final metric, for each WWT technology evaluated. The PAC-UF technology appears to be the most appropriate technology, attaining the highest composite value regarding the sustainability performance. A scenario analysis confirmed the results of the original scenario in five out of seven cases. In parallel, the PMR was highlighted as the technology with the least variability in its performance. Nevertheless, additional actions and approaches are proposed to strengthen the objectivity of the final results.

District Heating Systems Performance Analyses. Heat Energy Tariff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemele, Jelena; Vigants, Girts; Vitolins, Valdis; Blumberga, Dagnija; Veidenbergs, Ivars

2014-12-01

The paper addresses an important element of the European energy sector: the evaluation of district heating (DH) system operations from the standpoint of increasing energy efficiency and increasing the use of renewable energy resources. This has been done by developing a new methodology for the evaluation of the heat tariff. The paper presents an algorithm of this methodology, which includes not only a data base and calculation equation systems, but also an integrated multi-criteria analysis module using MADM/MCDM (Multi-Attribute Decision Making / Multi-Criteria Decision Making) based on TOPSIS (Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution). The results of the multi-criteria analysis are used to set the tariff benchmarks. The evaluation methodology has been tested for Latvian heat tariffs, and the obtained results show that only half of heating companies reach a benchmark value equal to 0.5 for the efficiency closeness to the ideal solution indicator. This means that the proposed evaluation methodology would not only allow companies to determine how they perform with regard to the proposed benchmark, but also to identify their need to restructure so that they may reach the level of a low-carbon business.

Judgement heuristics and bias in evidence interpretation: The effects of computer generated exhibits.

PubMed

Norris, Gareth

2015-01-01

The increasing use of multi-media applications, trial presentation software and computer generated exhibits (CGE) has raised questions as to the potential impact of the use of presentation technology on juror decision making. A significant amount of the commentary on the manner in which CGE exerts legal influence is largely anecdotal; empirical examinations too are often devoid of established theoretical rationalisations. This paper will examine a range of established judgement heuristics (for example, the attribution error, representativeness, simulation), in order to establish their appropriate application for comprehending legal decisions. Analysis of both past cases and empirical studies will highlight the potential for heuristics and biases to be restricted or confounded by the use of CGE. The paper will conclude with some wider discussion on admissibility, access to justice, and emerging issues in the use of multi-media in court. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human factors in aviation crashes involving older pilots.

PubMed

Li, Guohua; Baker, Susan P; Lamb, Margaret W; Grabowski, Jurek G; Rebok, George W

2002-02-01

Pilot errors are recognized as a contributing factor in as many as 80% of aviation crashes. Experimental studies using flight simulators indicate that due to decreased working memory capacity, older pilots are outperformed by their younger counterparts in communication tasks and flight summary scores. This study examines age-related differences in crash circumstances and pilot errors in a sample of pilots who flew commuter aircraft or air taxis and who were involved in airplane or helicopter crashes. A historical cohort of 3306 pilots who in 1987 flew commuter aircraft or air taxis and were 45-54 yr of age was constructed using the Federal Aviation Administration's airmen information system. Crash records of the study subjects for the years 1983-1997 were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) by matching name and date of birth. NTSB's investigation reports were reviewed to identify pilot errors and other contributing factors. Comparisons of crash circumstances and human factors were made between pilots aged 40-49 yr and pilots aged 50-63 yr. A total of 165 crash records were studied, with 52% of these crashes involving pilots aged 50-63 yr. Crash circumstances, such as time and location of crash, type and phase of flight, and weather conditions, were similar between the two age groups. Pilot error was a contributing factor in 73% of the crashes involving younger pilots and in 69% of the crashes involving older pilots (p = 0.50). Age-related differences in the pattern of pilot errors were statistically insignificant. Overall, 23% of pilot errors were attributable to inattentiveness, 20% to flawed decisions, 18% to mishandled aircraft kinetics, and 18% to mishandled wind/runway conditions. Neither crash circumstances nor the prevalence and patterns of pilot errors appear to change significantly as age increases from the 40s to the 50s and early 60s.

Development of a Colorectal Cancer Screening Intervention for Iranian Adults: Appling Intervention Mapping

PubMed

Besharati, Fereshteh; Karimi-Shahanjarini, Akram; Hazavehei, Seyed Mohammad Mehdi; Bashirian, Saeid; Bagheri, Fahimeh; Faradmal, Javad

2017-08-27

Background: While the incidence rate of the colorectal cancer (CRC) has been increasing over the last three decades in Iran, very limited interventions to increase CRC screening have been developed for Iranian population. The purpose of this study was to describe the use of Intervention Mapping (IM) for applying theory and evidence and considering local contexts to develop a CRC screening program among adults in Iran. Materials and Methods: From April 2014 to July 2016 following the IM process, six steps were formulated and implemented. First a need assessment was conducted involving relevant stakeholders and using focus groups discussions (n=10), individual interviews (n=20), and a household survey (n= 480). Then a matrix of change objectives was developed for each behavioral outcome and theoretical methods and their practical applications were identified to guide intervention development and implementation. A multi-component intervention was developed and piloted. Decision on suitable parts of intervention was made based on feedback of pilot study. Finally, evaluation plan including process and outcome evaluation was generated and conducted to inform future scale up. Results: The needs assessment highlighted factors affecting CRC screening including knowledge, self efficacy, social support and perceived benefit and barriers (financial problems, fear of detection of cancer and etc). Results of needs assessment were used to develop next steps IM. The program utilized methods like information delivery, modeling, and persuasion. Practical applications included video presentation, group discussion, role playing and postcards.This program was assessed through a cluster-randomized controlled trial. Results showed that there were significant differences in CRC screening uptake between intervention groups and control (P<0.001). Conclusions: IM is a useful process in the design of a theory-based intervention addressing CRC screening among Iranian population. Creative Commons Attribution License

A Three Stage Multi-attribute Procurement Auction: A Proposal for Department of Defense (DoD) Vendor Selection Decisions.

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-30

regarding production capabilities and costs, but must somehow form beliefs about the likelihood of a bid being accepted. We facilitate formulation...which both vendors believe the buyer places equal weight on the two attributes, but the vendors differ in their capabilities of producing those...exchange—the future of B2B . Harvard Business Review, 78(6), 86-96. = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= 444= k^s^i

Geographic Profiling: Knowledge Through Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GIS geographic information systems LE lawless elements MADM multi-attribute decision making MILF Moro Islamic...or her life. Anchor points can include the offender’s home , his or her workplace, a home of a friend of the offender, or even a bar or restaurant...more generally for the improvement of police patrols. In Memphis, TN, city officials have seen a decrease in crime with the help of operation Blue

Developing and piloting the multiple mini-interview in pre-registration student midwife selection in a UK setting.

PubMed

Callwood, Alison; Cooke, Debbie; Allan, Helen

2014-12-01

Published research has demonstrated that the multiple mini-interview (MMI) is a reliable assessment instrument in medical and nursing student selection. There is a dearth of evidence specifically relating to the advancement and subsequent evaluation of MMIs in the context of student midwife selection. To develop, pilot and examine the reliability of MMIs in pre-registration student midwife selection in a UK setting. DeVellis' framework for questionnaire development underpinned the generation of MMI scenarios. BSc (Hons) Midwifery Studies students at a Higher Education Institution in the UK volunteered to participate in 'mock' MMI circuits during the first week of their programme. An eight station model was piloted. Communication skills were rated at each station as a generic attribute. Station specific attributes assessed included: compassion and empathy; respect for difference and diversity; honesty and integrity; intellectual curiosity and reflective nature; advocacy; respect for privacy and dignity; team working and initiative; the role of the midwife and motivation to become a midwife. Participants' responses to scenario questions were rated on a 7 point scale. Cronbach's alpha scores measuring internal consistency ranged from 0.91 to 0.97 CONCLUSION: The systematic development of the MMI model and scenarios resulted in 'excellent' reliability across all stations. These findings endorse the MMI technique as a reliable alternative to the personal interview in informing final decisions in pre-registration student midwife selection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Visualization in Cockpit Decision Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aragon, Cecilia R.

2005-01-01

In order to safely operate their aircraft, pilots must make rapid decisions based on integrating and processing large amounts of heterogeneous information. Visual displays are often the most efficient method of presenting safety-critical data to pilots in real time. However, care must be taken to ensure the pilot is provided with the appropriate amount of information to make effective decisions and not become cognitively overloaded. The results of two usability studies of a prototype airflow hazard visualization cockpit decision support system are summarized. The studies demonstrate that such a system significantly improves the performance of helicopter pilots landing under turbulent conditions. Based on these results, design principles and implications for cockpit decision support systems using visualization are presented.

Promoting Positive Learning in Australian Students Aged 10- to 12-Years-Old Using Attribution Retraining and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chodkiewicz, Alicia R; Boyle, Christopher

2016-01-01

This study piloted an intervention using attribution retraining and cognitive behavioral therapy techniques to promote positive learning experiences and outcomes for students. This research is an important step to revitalise the dwindling field of attribution retraining research by assessing whether these techniques effectively improve student…

ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

2018-02-01

A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

[Treatment Decision-Making Process of Cancer Patients].

PubMed

Lee, Shiu-Yu C Katie

2016-10-01

The decision-making process that is used by cancer patients to determine their treatment has become more multi-foci, difficult and complicated in recent years. This has in part been attributed to the increasing incidence rate of cancer in Taiwan and the rapid development of medical technologies and treatment modalities. Oncology nurses must assist patients and family to make informed and value-based treatment decisions. Decision-making is an information process that involves appraising one's own expectation and values based on his/her knowledge on cancer and treatment options. Because cancer treatment involves risks and uncertainties, and impacts quality of life, the treatment decision-making for cancer is often stressful, or even conflicting. This paper discusses the decision-making behaviors of cancer patients and the decisional conflict, participation, and informational needs that are involved in cancer treatment. The trend toward shared decision-making and decisional support will be also explored in order to facilitate the future development of appropriate clinical interventions and research.

Issues in establishing an aerosol radiological baseline for the waste isolation pilot plant near Carlsbad, New Mexico.

PubMed

Rodgers, J C; Kenney, J W

1997-02-01

The Department of Energy has constructed a deep geologic repository for defense transuranic waste disposal. The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, located in Southeastern New Mexico, is slated to receive transuranic waste by truck delivery beginning in 1998. The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) provides an independent evaluation of the impact on the health and environment in New Mexico of the WIPP project. Since 1985, the EEG has operated a network of air monitoring sites around WIPP and in nearby communities. The radionuclide concentration data from these air samples have been assembled into a useful baseline data base after resolution of a number of methodological and quality assurance issues. Investigation thresholds for the principal radionuclides have been calculated from combined data collected from several sites. These action levels will provide a critical quantitative basis for decisions of whether future airborne radionuclide measurements are attributable to accidental releases.

Multi-reactor power system configurations for multimegawatt nuclear electric propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, Jeffrey A.

1991-01-01

A modular, multi-reactor power system and vehicle configuration for piloted nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) missions to Mars is presented. Such a design could provide enhanced system and mission reliability, allowing a comfortable safety margin for early manned flights, and would allow a range of piloted and cargo missions to be performed with a single power system design. Early use of common power modules for cargo missions would also provide progressive flight experience and validation of standardized systems for use in later piloted applications. System and mission analysis are presented to compare single and multi-reactor configurations for piloted Mars missions. A conceptual design for the Hydra modular multi-reactor NEP vehicle is presented.

Does technique matter; a pilot study exploring weighting techniques for a multi-criteria decision support framework.

PubMed

van Til, Janine; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina; Lieferink, Marijke; Dolan, James; Goetghebeur, Mireille

2014-01-01

There is an increased interest in the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to support regulatory and reimbursement decision making. The EVIDEM framework was developed to provide pragmatic multi-criteria decision support in health care, to estimate the value of healthcare interventions, and to aid in priority-setting. The objectives of this study were to test 1) the influence of different weighting techniques on the overall outcome of an MCDA exercise, 2) the discriminative power in weighting different criteria of such techniques, and 3) whether different techniques result in similar weights in weighting the criteria set proposed by the EVIDEM framework. A sample of 60 Dutch and Canadian students participated in the study. Each student used an online survey to provide weights for 14 criteria with two different techniques: a five-point rating scale and one of the following techniques selected randomly: ranking, point allocation, pairwise comparison and best worst scaling. The results of this study indicate that there is no effect of differences in weights on value estimates at the group level. On an individual level, considerable differences in criteria weights and rank order occur as a result of the weight elicitation method used, and the ability of different techniques to discriminate in criteria importance. Of the five techniques tested, the pair-wise comparison of criteria has the highest ability to discriminate in weights when fourteen criteria are compared. When weights are intended to support group decisions, the choice of elicitation technique has negligible impact on criteria weights and the overall value of an innovation. However, when weights are used to support individual decisions, the choice of elicitation technique influences outcome and studies that use dissimilar techniques cannot be easily compared. Weight elicitation through pairwise comparison of criteria is preferred when taking into account its superior ability to discriminate between criteria and respondents' preferences.

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for evaluating new medicines in Health Technology Assessment and beyond: The Advance Value Framework.

PubMed

Angelis, Aris; Kanavos, Panos

2017-09-01

Escalating drug prices have catalysed the generation of numerous "value frameworks" with the aim of informing payers, clinicians and patients on the assessment and appraisal process of new medicines for the purpose of coverage and treatment selection decisions. Although this is an important step towards a more inclusive Value Based Assessment (VBA) approach, aspects of these frameworks are based on weak methodologies and could potentially result in misleading recommendations or decisions. In this paper, a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodological process, based on Multi Attribute Value Theory (MAVT), is adopted for building a multi-criteria evaluation model. A five-stage model-building process is followed, using a top-down "value-focused thinking" approach, involving literature reviews and expert consultations. A generic value tree is structured capturing decision-makers' concerns for assessing the value of new medicines in the context of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and in alignment with decision theory. The resulting value tree (Advance Value Tree) consists of three levels of criteria (top level criteria clusters, mid-level criteria, bottom level sub-criteria or attributes) relating to five key domains that can be explicitly measured and assessed: (a) burden of disease, (b) therapeutic impact, (c) safety profile (d) innovation level and (e) socioeconomic impact. A number of MAVT modelling techniques are introduced for operationalising (i.e. estimating) the model, for scoring the alternative treatment options, assigning relative weights of importance to the criteria, and combining scores and weights. Overall, the combination of these MCDA modelling techniques for the elicitation and construction of value preferences across the generic value tree provides a new value framework (Advance Value Framework) enabling the comprehensive measurement of value in a structured and transparent way. Given its flexibility to meet diverse requirements and become readily adaptable across different settings, the Advance Value Framework could be offered as a decision-support tool for evaluators and payers to aid coverage and reimbursement of new medicines. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Higher Landing Accuracy in Expert Pilots is Associated with Lower Activity in the Caudate Nucleus

PubMed Central

Adamson, Maheen M.; Taylor, Joy L.; Heraldez, Daniel; Khorasani, Allen; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Yesavage, Jerome A.

2014-01-01

The most common lethal accidents in General Aviation are caused by improperly executed landing approaches in which a pilot descends below the minimum safe altitude without proper visual references. To understand how expertise might reduce such erroneous decision-making, we examined relevant neural processes in pilots performing a simulated landing approach inside a functional MRI scanner. Pilots (aged 20–66) were asked to “fly” a series of simulated “cockpit view” instrument landing scenarios in an MRI scanner. The scenarios were either high risk (heavy fog–legally unsafe to land) or low risk (medium fog–legally safe to land). Pilots with one of two levels of expertise participated: Moderate Expertise (Instrument Flight Rules pilots, n = 8) or High Expertise (Certified Instrument Flight Instructors or Air-Transport Pilots, n = 12). High Expertise pilots were more accurate than Moderate Expertise pilots in making a “land” versus “do not land” decision (CFII: d′ = 3.62±2.52; IFR: d′ = 0.98±1.04; p<.01). Brain activity in bilateral caudate nucleus was examined for main effects of expertise during a “land” versus “do not land” decision with the no-decision control condition modeled as baseline. In making landing decisions, High Expertise pilots showed lower activation in the bilateral caudate nucleus (0.97±0.80) compared to Moderate Expertise pilots (1.91±1.16) (p<.05). These findings provide evidence for increased “neural efficiency” in High Expertise pilots relative to Moderate Expertise pilots. During an instrument approach the pilot is engaged in detailed examination of flight instruments while monitoring certain visual references for making landing decisions. The caudate nucleus regulates saccade eye control of gaze, the brain area where the “expertise” effect was observed. These data provide evidence that performing “real world” aviation tasks in an fMRI provide objective data regarding the relative expertise of pilots and brain regions involved in it. PMID:25426935

[Involving patients, the insured and the general public in healthcare decision making].

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Juhnke, Christin

2016-01-01

No doubt, the public should be involved in healthcare decision making, especially when decision makers from politics and self-government agencies are faced with the difficult task of setting priorities. There is a general consensus on the need for a stronger patient centeredness, even in HTA processes, and internationally different ways of public participation are discussed and tested in decision making processes. This paper describes how the public can be involved in different decision situations, and it shows how preference measurement methods are currently being used in an international context to support decision making. It distinguishes between different levels of decision making on health technologies: approval, assessment, pricing, and finally utilization. The range of participation efforts extends from qualitative surveys of patients' needs (Citizen Councils of NICE in the UK) to science-based documentation of quantitative patient preferences, such as in the current pilot projects of the FDA in the US and the EMA at the European level. Possible approaches for the elicitation and documentation of preference structures and trade-offs in relation to alternate health technologies are decision aids, such as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), that provide the necessary information for weighting and prioritizing decision criteria. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Qualitative analysis of patient-centered decision attributes associated with initiating hepatitis C treatment.

PubMed

Zuchowski, Jessica L; Hamilton, Alison B; Pyne, Jeffrey M; Clark, Jack A; Naik, Aanand D; Smith, Donna L; Kanwal, Fasiha

2015-10-01

In this era of a constantly changing landscape of antiviral treatment options for chronic viral hepatitis C (CHC), shared clinical decision-making addresses the need to engage patients in complex treatment decisions. However, little is known about the decision attributes that CHC patients consider when making treatment decisions. We identify key patient-centered decision attributes, and explore relationships among these attributes, to help inform the development of a future CHC shared decision-making aid. Semi-structured qualitative interviews with CHC patients at four Veterans Health Administration (VHA) hospitals, in three comparison groups: contemplating CHC treatment at the time of data collection (Group 1), recently declined CHC treatment (Group 2), or recently started CHC treatment (Group 3). Participant descriptions of decision attributes were analyzed for the entire sample as well as by patient group and by gender. Twenty-nine Veteran patients participated (21 males, eight females): 12 were contemplating treatment, nine had recently declined treatment, and eight had recently started treatment. Patients on average described eight (range 5-13) decision attributes. The attributes most frequently reported overall were: physical side effects (83%); treatment efficacy (79%), new treatment drugs in development (55%); psychological side effects (55%); and condition of the liver (52%), with some variation based on group and gender. Personal life circumstance attributes (such as availability of family support and the burden of financial responsibilities) influencing treatment decisions were also noted by all participants. Multiple decision attributes were interrelated in highly complex ways. Participants considered numerous attributes in their CHC treatment decisions. A better understanding of these attributes that influence patient decision-making is crucial in order to inform patient-centered clinical approaches to care (such as shared decision-making augmented with relevant decision-making aids) that respond to patients' needs, preferences, and circumstances.

A Literature Review and Compilation of Nuclear Waste Management System Attributes for Use in Multi-Objective System Evaluations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Samsa, Michael

The purpose of this work was to compile a comprehensive initial set of potential nuclear waste management system attributes. This initial set of attributes is intended to serve as a starting point for additional consideration by system analysts and planners to facilitate the development of a waste management system multi-objective evaluation framework based on the principles and methodology of multi-attribute utility analysis. The compilation is primarily based on a review of reports issued by the Canadian Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) and the Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future (BRC), but also an extensive review of the available literaturemore » for similar and past efforts as well. Numerous system attributes found in different sources were combined into a single objectives-oriented hierarchical structure. This study provides a discussion of the data sources and the descriptions of the hierarchical structure. A particular focus of this study was on collecting and compiling inputs from past studies that involved the participation of various external stakeholders. However, while the important role of stakeholder input in a country's waste management decision process is recognized in the referenced sources, there are only a limited number of in-depth studies of the stakeholders' differing perspectives. Compiling a comprehensive hierarchical listing of attributes is a complex task since stakeholders have multiple and often conflicting interests. The BRC worked for two years (January 2010 to January 2012) to "ensure it has heard from as many points of view as possible." The Canadian NWMO study took four years and ample resources, involving national and regional stakeholders' dialogs, internet-based dialogs, information and discussion sessions, open houses, workshops, round tables, public attitude research, website, and topic reports. The current compilation effort benefited from the distillation of these many varied inputs conducted by the previous studies.« less

Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

2018-03-01

GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

Interpersonal reactivity and the attribution of emotional reactions.

PubMed

Haas, Brian W; Anderson, Ian W; Filkowski, Megan M

2015-06-01

The ability to identify the cause of another person's emotional reaction is an important component associated with improved success of social relationships and survival. Although many studies have investigated the mechanisms involved in emotion recognition, very little is currently known regarding the processes involved during emotion attribution decisions. Research on complementary "emotion understanding" mechanisms, including empathy and theory of mind, has demonstrated that emotion understanding decisions are often made through relatively emotion- or cognitive-based processing streams. The current study was designed to investigate the behavioral and brain mechanisms involved in emotion attribution decisions. We predicted that dual processes, emotional and cognitive, are engaged during emotion attribution decisions. Sixteen healthy adults completed the Interpersonal Reactivity Index to characterize individual differences in tendency to make emotion- versus cognitive-based interpersonal decisions. Participants then underwent functional MRI while making emotion attribution decisions. We found neuroimaging evidence that emotion attribution decisions engage a similar brain network as other forms of emotion understanding. Further, we found evidence in support of a dual processes model involved during emotion attribution decisions. Higher scores of personal distress were associated with quicker emotion attribution decisions and increased anterior insula activity. Conversely, higher scores in perspective taking were associated with delayed emotion attribution decisions and increased prefrontal cortex and premotor activity. These findings indicate that the making of emotion attribution decisions relies on dissociable emotional and cognitive processing streams within the brain. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

An intelligent system and a relational data base for codifying helmet-mounted display symbology design requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Steven P.; Hamilton, David B.

1994-06-01

To employ the most readily comprehensible presentation methods and symbology with helmet-mounted displays (HMDs), it is critical to identify the information elements needed to perform each pilot function and to analytically determine the attributes of these elements. The extensive analyses of mission requirements currently performed for pilot-vehicle interface design can be aided and improved by the new capabilities of intelligent systems and relational databases. An intelligent system, named ACIDTEST, has been developed specifically for organizing and applying rules to identify the best display modalities, locations, and formats. The primary objectives of the ACIDTEST system are to provide rapid accessibility to pertinent display research data, to integrate guidelines from many disciplines and identify conflicts among these guidelines, to force a consistent display approach among the design team members, and to serve as an 'audit trail' of design decisions and justifications. A powerful relational database called TAWL ORDIR has been developed to document information requirements and attributes for use by ACIDTEST as well as to greatly augment the applicability of mission analysis data. TAWL ORDIR can be used to rapidly reorganize mission analysis data components for study, perform commonality analyses for groups of tasks, determine the information content requirement for tailored display modes, and identify symbology integration opportunities.

Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, V.; Weisbin, C. R.

2010-01-01

Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

Intelligent data management for real-time spacecraft monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwuttke, Ursula M.; Gasser, Les; Abramson, Bruce

1992-01-01

Real-time AI systems have begun to address the challenge of restructuring problem solving to meet real-time constraints by making key trade-offs that pursue less than optimal strategies with minimal impact on system goals. Several approaches for adapting to dynamic changes in system operating conditions are known. However, simultaneously adapting system decision criteria in a principled way has been difficult. Towards this end, a general technique for dynamically making such trade-offs using a combination of decision theory and domain knowledge has been developed. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), a decision theoretic approach for making one-time decisions is discussed and dynamic trade-off evaluation is described as a knowledge-based extension of MAUT that is suitable for highly dynamic real-time environments, and provides an example of dynamic trade-off evaluation applied to a specific data management trade-off in a real-world spacecraft monitoring application.

Underground Mining Method Selection Using WPM and PROMETHEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balusa, Bhanu Chander; Singam, Jayanthu

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to represent the solution to the problem of selecting suitable underground mining method for the mining industry. It is achieved by using two multi-attribute decision making techniques. These two techniques are weighted product method (WPM) and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE). In this paper, analytic hierarchy process is used for weight's calculation of the attributes (i.e. parameters which are used in this paper). Mining method selection depends on physical parameters, mechanical parameters, economical parameters and technical parameters. WPM and PROMETHEE techniques have the ability to consider the relationship between the parameters and mining methods. The proposed techniques give higher accuracy and faster computation capability when compared with other decision making techniques. The proposed techniques are presented to determine the effective mining method for bauxite mine. The results of these techniques are compared with methods used in the earlier research works. The results show, conventional cut and fill method is the most suitable mining method.

Using multi-criteria decision making for selection of the optimal strategy for municipal solid waste management.

PubMed

Jovanovic, Sasa; Savic, Slobodan; Jovicic, Nebojsa; Boskovic, Goran; Djordjevic, Zorica

2016-09-01

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) is a relatively new tool for decision makers who deal with numerous and often contradictory factors during their decision making process. This paper presents a procedure to choose the optimal municipal solid waste (MSW) management system for the area of the city of Kragujevac (Republic of Serbia) based on the MCDM method. Two methods of multiple attribute decision making, i.e. SAW (simple additive weighting method) and TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution), respectively, were used to compare the proposed waste management strategies (WMS). Each of the created strategies was simulated using the software package IWM2. Total values for eight chosen parameters were calculated for all the strategies. Contribution of each of the six waste treatment options was valorized. The SAW analysis was used to obtain the sum characteristics for all the waste management treatment strategies and they were ranked accordingly. The TOPSIS method was used to calculate the relative closeness factors to the ideal solution for all the alternatives. Then, the proposed strategies were ranked in form of tables and diagrams obtained based on both MCDM methods. As shown in this paper, the results were in good agreement, which additionally confirmed and facilitated the choice of the optimal MSW management strategy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Multi Attribute Decision Analysis in Public Health - Analyzing Effectiveness of Alternate Modes of Dispensing

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

curve (Smith, 2007). This curve shows the relative performance of an option based on the selected factors (Chan & Mauborgne, 2007). Value cures ...that they and their families are safe; anything less will result in staffing shortages and absenteeism . d. POD Staff Training POD volunteers would...can expect high rates of absenteeism . Local law enforcement in LAC has therefore not guaranteed one- on-one protection for the 3,750 postal carriers

Priority Determination of Underwater Tourism Site Development in Gorontalo Province using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohandi, M.; Tuloli, M. Y.; Jassin, R. T.

2018-02-01

This research aims to determine the development of priority of underwater tourism in Gorontalo province using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which is one of DSS methods applying Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM). This method used 5 criteria and 28 alternatives to determine the best priority of underwater tourism site development in Gorontalo province. Based on the AHP calculation it appeared that the best priority development of underwater tourism site is Pulau Cinta whose total AHP score is 0.489 or 48.9%. This DSS produced a reliable result, faster solution, time-saving, and low cost for the decision makers to obtain the best underwater tourism site to be developed.

The development and piloting of the REnal specific Advanced Communication Training (REACT) programme to improve Advance Care Planning for renal patients.

PubMed

Bristowe, Katherine; Shepherd, Kate; Bryan, Liz; Brown, Heather; Carey, Irene; Matthews, Beverley; O'Donoghue, Donal; Vinen, Katie; Murtagh, Fliss E M

2014-04-01

In recent years, the End-Stage Kidney Disease population has increased and is ever more frail, elderly and co-morbid. A care-focused approach needs to be incorporated alongside the disease focus, to identify those who are deteriorating and improve communication about preferences and future care. Yet many renal professionals feel unprepared for such discussions. To develop and pilot a REnal specific Advanced Communication Training (REACT) programme to address the needs of End-Stage Kidney Disease patients and renal professionals. Two-part study: (1) development of the REnal specific Advanced Communication Training programme informed by multi-professional focus group and patient survey and (2) piloting of the programme. The REnal specific Advanced Communication Training programme was piloted with 16 participants (9 renal nurses/health-care assistants and 7 renal consultants) in two UK teaching hospitals. The focus group identified the need for better information about end-of-life phase, improved awareness of patient perspectives, skills to manage challenging discussions, 'hands on' practice in a safe environment and follow-up to discuss experiences. The patient survey demonstrated a need to improve communication about concerns, treatment plans and decisions. The developed REnal specific Advanced Communication Training programme was acceptable and feasible and was associated with a non-significant increase in confidence in communicating about end-of-life issues (pre-training: 6.6/10, 95% confidence interval: 5.7-7.4; post-training: 6.9/10, 95% confidence interval: 6.1-7.7, unpaired t-test - p = 0.56), maintained at 3 months. There is a need to improve end-of-life care for End-Stage Kidney Disease patients, to enable them to make informed decisions about future care. Challenges include prioritising communication training among service providers.

Pilot Decision-Making in Irreversible Emergencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winter, Scott R.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if a reflexive learning treatment utilizing select case studies could enhance the decision-making of pilots who encounter an irreversible emergency. Participants, who consisted of members of the subject university's professional pilot program, were divided into either a control or experimental group and…

A Stochastic Multi-Attribute Assessment of Energy Options for Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Madani, K.; Mokhtari, S.; Hanks, C. L.; Sheets, B.

2012-12-01

Many competing projects have been proposed to address Interior Alaska's high cost of energy—both for electricity production and for heating. Public and private stakeholders are considering the costs associated with these competing projects which vary in fuel source, subsidy requirements, proximity, and other factors. As a result, the current projects under consideration involve a complex cost structure of potential subsidies and reliance on present and future market prices, introducing a significant amount of uncertainty associated with each selection. Multi-criteria multi-decision making (MCMDM) problems of this nature can benefit from game theory and systems engineering methods, which account for behavior and preferences of stakeholders in the analysis to produce feasible and relevant solutions. This work uses a stochastic MCMDM framework to evaluate the trade-offs of each proposed project based on a complete cost analysis, environmental impact, and long-term sustainability. Uncertainty in the model is quantified via a Monte Carlo analysis, which helps characterize the sensitivity and risk associated with each project. Based on performance measures and criteria outlined by the stakeholders, a decision matrix will inform policy on selecting a project that is both efficient and preferred by the constituents.

Experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, R. E.; Lauber, J. K.; Billings, C. E.

1975-01-01

A simulation task is reported which incorporates both kinds of variables, informational and psychological, to successfully study pilot decision making behavior in the laboratory. Preliminary experiments in the measurement of decisions and the inducement of stress in simulated low visibility approaches are described.

The development of an online decision aid to support persons having a genetic predisposition to cancer and their partners during reproductive decision-making: a usability and pilot study.

PubMed

Reumkens, Kelly; Tummers, Marly H E; Gietel-Habets, Joyce J G; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Aalfs, Cora M; van Asperen, Christi J; Ausems, Margreet G E M; Collée, Margriet; Dommering, Charlotte J; Kets, C Marleen; van der Kolk, Lizet E; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Tjan-Heijnen, Vivianne C G; van der Weijden, Trudy; de Die-Smulders, Christine E M; van Osch, Liesbeth A D M

2018-05-30

An online decision aid to support persons having a genetic predisposition to cancer and their partners during reproductive decision-making was developed. A two-phase usability test was conducted among 12 couples (N = 22; 2 persons participated without their partner) at risk for hereditary cancer and 15 health care providers. Couples and health care providers expressed similar suggestions for improvements, and evaluated the modified decision aid as acceptable, easy to use, and comprehensible. The final decision aid was pilot tested (N = 16) with paired sample t tests comparing main outcomes (decisional conflict, knowledge, realistic expectations regarding the reproductive options and decision self-efficacy) before (T0), immediately (T1) and 2 weeks after (T2) use of the decision aid. Pilot testing indicated decreased decisional conflict scores, increased knowledge, and improved realistic expectations regarding the reproductive options, at T1 and T2. No effect was found for couples' decision self-efficacy. The positive findings during usability testing were thus reflected in the pilot study. The decision aid will be further evaluated in a nationwide pretest-posttest study to facilitate implementation in the onco-genetic counselling setting. Ultimately, it is expected that the decision aid will enable end-users to make an informed decision.

Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource availability, the context, and the complexity of the decision problem. PMID:26954353

Energy Decision Science and Informatics | Integrated Energy Solutions |

Science.gov Websites

Science Advanced decision science methods include multi-objective and multi-criteria decision support. Our decision science methods, including multi-objective and multi-criteria decision support. For example, we

Applying image quality in cell phone cameras: lens distortion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baxter, Donald; Goma, Sergio R.; Aleksic, Milivoje

2009-01-01

This paper describes the framework used in one of the pilot studies run under the I3A CPIQ initiative to quantify overall image quality in cell-phone cameras. The framework is based on a multivariate formalism which tries to predict overall image quality from individual image quality attributes and was validated in a CPIQ pilot program. The pilot study focuses on image quality distortions introduced in the optical path of a cell-phone camera, which may or may not be corrected in the image processing path. The assumption is that the captured image used is JPEG compressed and the cellphone camera is set to 'auto' mode. As the used framework requires that the individual attributes to be relatively perceptually orthogonal, in the pilot study, the attributes used are lens geometric distortion (LGD) and lateral chromatic aberrations (LCA). The goal of this paper is to present the framework of this pilot project starting with the definition of the individual attributes, up to their quantification in JNDs of quality, a requirement of the multivariate formalism, therefore both objective and subjective evaluations were used. A major distinction in the objective part from the 'DSC imaging world' is that the LCA/LGD distortions found in cell-phone cameras, rarely exhibit radial behavior, therefore a radial mapping/modeling cannot be used in this case.

Head position of helicopter pilots during slalom maneuvers.

PubMed

Temme, Leonard A; Still, David L

2007-01-01

Pilots typically tilt their heads when executing coordinated banking turns, a phenomenon commonly attributed to the putative opto-kinetic cervical reflex (OKCR). The OKCR is usually described as a reflex, primarily driven by stimuli in the visual periphery, and is important to a pilot's spatial orientation by providing a relatively stabilized horizontal frame of reference. The present paper presents an alternative hypothesis for the observed head tilting seen in pilots. An archived data set, originally collected for other purposes, contained the head turn, pitch, and tilt of 4 helicopter pilots recorded at 10 Hz as the pilots executed 42 slalom maneuvers in an AH Mk 7 Lynx helicopter under visual flight conditions. The analytic method was a correlational analysis of head turn, pitch, and tilt. As expected, pilots routinely tilted their heads during the slaloms in a fashion typically attributed to the OKCR. Correlations among head turn, tilt, and pitch showed that when the helicopter turned left, the head, presumably to look into the turn, turned left and also pitched up and tilted right. Similarly, when the helicopter turned right, the head, presumably to look into the turn, turned right, pitched up, and tilted left. The head tilting usually attributed to a neuromuscular reflex driven by visual stimuli may be a biomechanical consequence of the head posture pilots assume when they simply look where they are going, eliminating the need to postulate the existence of a novel neuromuscular reflex.

Should the Australian Army Adopt the Concept of Effects-Based Operations?

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-06-06

militray effect (Echevarria, 2001). 2 John Boyd was a US Air Force Fighter pilot who developed a model of decision making based on his experiences in the...this cycle, the decision maker (initially a fighter pilot ) would try to reduce the time it took him to go through the cycle. The speed of the decision...cycle was relative, but ultimately, the pilot who could reduce his cycle enough to be “inside”‘ his adversary’s cycle would eventually win. The BOYD

The Neuropsychological Function of Older First-Time Child Exploitation Material Offenders: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Marcelo; Ellis, Andrew

2018-06-01

Despite the growing incidence of child exploitation offences, there is little knowledge of the neuropsychological function of older child exploitation material offenders (CEMOs). Given that studies have reported that sex offenders demonstrate deficits attributed to frontal and temporal lobe function, the aim of this pilot study was to investigate the frontotemporal function of older first-time child exploitation material offenders (FTCEMOs). The neuropsychological performance of 11 older FTCEMOs was compared with 34 older historical sex offenders (HSOs) and 32 older nonsex offender (NSO) controls. Forty-five percent of FTCEMOs admitted to a pedophilic interest, which was significantly lower than those reported by HSOs. FTCEMOs provided significantly higher intellectual function scores than HSOs. Results revealed no evidence of mild or major neurocognitive disorder in FTCEMOs. Although the groups were not significantly different, compared with normative data, FTCEMOs reported a high incidence of impairment on a measure of decision making and on a measure of facial emotional recognition.

Multiple-attribute group decision making with different formats of preference information on attributes.

PubMed

Xu, Zeshui

2007-12-01

Interval utility values, interval fuzzy preference relations, and interval multiplicative preference relations are three common uncertain-preference formats used by decision-makers to provide their preference information in the process of decision making under fuzziness. This paper is devoted in investigating multiple-attribute group-decision-making problems where the attribute values are not precisely known but the value ranges can be obtained, and the decision-makers provide their preference information over attributes by three different uncertain-preference formats i.e., 1) interval utility values; 2) interval fuzzy preference relations; and 3) interval multiplicative preference relations. We first utilize some functions to normalize the uncertain decision matrix and then transform it into an expected decision matrix. We establish a goal-programming model to integrate the expected decision matrix and all three different uncertain-preference formats from which the attribute weights and the overall attribute values of alternatives can be obtained. Then, we use the derived overall attribute values to get the ranking of the given alternatives and to select the best one(s). The model not only can reflect both the subjective considerations of all decision-makers and the objective information but also can avoid losing and distorting the given objective and subjective decision information in the process of information integration. Furthermore, we establish some models to solve the multiple-attribute group-decision-making problems with three different preference formats: 1) utility values; 2) fuzzy preference relations; and 3) multiplicative preference relations. Finally, we illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed models with two practical examples.

PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

2015-06-01

PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

Cognitive representations of flight-deck information attributes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Wendell R.; Jonsson, Jon E.; Rogers, William H.

1993-01-01

The experiment described in this paper had two ojectives. The first objective was to empirically identify how pilots organize flight-deck information attributes. Such an organization should provide a useful nomenclature for classifying Information Management (IM) issues and problems. The second objective of this study was to empirically assess pilots' estimate of the relative importance of each attribute on managing information. Results from addressing this latter objective were intended to suggest areas on which flight-deck researchers and designers will want to focus their attention.

Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks

PubMed Central

Henriques, Roberto

2017-01-01

Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes. PMID:28968449

Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

PubMed

Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

2017-01-01

Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

Scaling Down to Scale Up: A Health Economic Analysis of Integrating Point-of-Care Syphilis Testing into Antenatal Care in Zambia during Pilot and National Rollout Implementation

PubMed Central

Ncube, Alexander Tshaka; Sweeney, Sedona; Fleischer, Colette; Mumba, Grace Tembo; Gill, Michelle M.; Strasser, Susan; Peeling, Rosanna W.; Terris-Prestholt, Fern

2015-01-01

Maternal syphilis results in an estimated 500,000 stillbirths and neonatal deaths annually in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the existence of national guidelines for antenatal syphilis screening, syphilis testing is often limited by inadequate laboratory and staff services. Recent availability of inexpensive rapid point-of-care syphilis tests (RST) can improve access to antenatal syphilis screening. A 2010 pilot in Zambia explored the feasibility of integrating RST within prevention of mother-to-child-transmission of HIV services. Following successful demonstration, the Zambian Ministry of Health adopted RSTs into national policy in 2011. Cost data from the pilot and 2012 preliminary national rollout were extracted from project records, antenatal registers, clinic staff interviews, and facility observations, with the aim of assessing the cost and quality implications of scaling up a successful pilot into a national rollout. Start-up, capital, and recurrent cost inputs were collected, including costs of extensive supervision and quality monitoring during the pilot. Costs were analysed from a provider’s perspective, incremental to existing antenatal services. Total and unit costs were calculated and a multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed. Our accompanying qualitative study by Ansbro et al. (2015) elucidated quality assurance and supervisory system challenges experienced during rollout, which helped explain key cost drivers. The average unit cost per woman screened during rollout ($11.16) was more than triple the pilot unit cost ($3.19). While quality assurance costs were much lower during rollout, the increased unit costs can be attributed to several factors, including higher RST prices and lower RST coverage during rollout, which reduced economies of scale. Pilot and rollout cost drivers differed due to implementation decisions related to training, supervision, and quality assurance. This study explored the cost of integrating RST into antenatal care in pilot and national rollout settings, and highlighted important differences in costs that may be observed when moving from pilot to scale-up. PMID:25970443

Scaling Down to Scale Up: A Health Economic Analysis of Integrating Point-of-Care Syphilis Testing into Antenatal Care in Zambia during Pilot and National Rollout Implementation.

PubMed

Shelley, Katharine D; Ansbro, Éimhín M; Ncube, Alexander Tshaka; Sweeney, Sedona; Fleischer, Colette; Tembo Mumba, Grace; Gill, Michelle M; Strasser, Susan; Peeling, Rosanna W; Terris-Prestholt, Fern

2015-01-01

Maternal syphilis results in an estimated 500,000 stillbirths and neonatal deaths annually in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the existence of national guidelines for antenatal syphilis screening, syphilis testing is often limited by inadequate laboratory and staff services. Recent availability of inexpensive rapid point-of-care syphilis tests (RST) can improve access to antenatal syphilis screening. A 2010 pilot in Zambia explored the feasibility of integrating RST within prevention of mother-to-child-transmission of HIV services. Following successful demonstration, the Zambian Ministry of Health adopted RSTs into national policy in 2011. Cost data from the pilot and 2012 preliminary national rollout were extracted from project records, antenatal registers, clinic staff interviews, and facility observations, with the aim of assessing the cost and quality implications of scaling up a successful pilot into a national rollout. Start-up, capital, and recurrent cost inputs were collected, including costs of extensive supervision and quality monitoring during the pilot. Costs were analysed from a provider's perspective, incremental to existing antenatal services. Total and unit costs were calculated and a multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed. Our accompanying qualitative study by Ansbro et al. (2015) elucidated quality assurance and supervisory system challenges experienced during rollout, which helped explain key cost drivers. The average unit cost per woman screened during rollout ($11.16) was more than triple the pilot unit cost ($3.19). While quality assurance costs were much lower during rollout, the increased unit costs can be attributed to several factors, including higher RST prices and lower RST coverage during rollout, which reduced economies of scale. Pilot and rollout cost drivers differed due to implementation decisions related to training, supervision, and quality assurance. This study explored the cost of integrating RST into antenatal care in pilot and national rollout settings, and highlighted important differences in costs that may be observed when moving from pilot to scale-up.

Use of a Data-Linked Weather Information Display and Effects on Pilot Navigation Decision Making in a Piloted Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Novacek, Paul F.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Heck, Michael L.; Stokes, Alan F.

2001-01-01

This study provides recommendations to the FAA and to prospective manufacturers based on an exploration of the effects of data link weather displays upon pilot decision performance. An experiment was conducted with twenty-four current instrument rated pilots who were divided into two equal groups and presented with a challenging but realistic flight scenario involving weather containing significant embedded convective activity. All flights were flown in a full-mission simulation facility within instrument meteorological conditions. The inflight weather display depicted NexRad images, graphical METARs and textual METARs. The objective was to investigate the potential for misuse of a weather display, and incorporate recommendations for the design and use of these displays. The primary conclusion of the study found that the inflight weather display did not improve weather avoidance decision making. Some of the reasons to support this finding include: the pilot's inability to easily perceive their proximity to the storms, increased workload and difficulty in deciphering METAR textual data. The compelling nature of a graphical weather display caused many pilots to reduce their reliance on corroborating weather information from other sources. Minor changes to the weather display could improve the ability of a pilot to make better decisions on hazard avoidance.

Assessing the multi-scale predictive ability of ecosystem functional attributes for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Gonçalves, João; Alves, Paulo; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Honrado, João P

2018-01-01

Global environmental changes are rapidly affecting species' distributions and habitat suitability worldwide, requiring a continuous update of biodiversity status to support effective decisions on conservation policy and management. In this regard, satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) offer a more integrative and quicker evaluation of ecosystem responses to environmental drivers and changes than climate and structural or compositional landscape attributes. Thus, EFAs may hold advantages as predictors in Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and for implementing multi-scale species monitoring programs. Here we describe a modelling framework to assess the predictive ability of EFAs as Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) against traditional datasets (climate, land-cover) at several scales. We test the framework with a multi-scale assessment of habitat suitability for two plant species of conservation concern, both protected under the EU Habitats Directive, differing in terms of life history, range and distribution pattern (Iris boissieri and Taxus baccata). We fitted four sets of SDMs for the two test species, calibrated with: interpolated climate variables; landscape variables; EFAs; and a combination of climate and landscape variables. EFA-based models performed very well at the several scales (AUCmedian from 0.881±0.072 to 0.983±0.125), and similarly to traditional climate-based models, individually or in combination with land-cover predictors (AUCmedian from 0.882±0.059 to 0.995±0.083). Moreover, EFA-based models identified additional suitable areas and provided valuable information on functional features of habitat suitability for both test species (narrowly vs. widely distributed), for both coarse and fine scales. Our results suggest a relatively small scale-dependence of the predictive ability of satellite-derived EFAs, supporting their use as meaningful EBVs in SDMs from regional and broader scales to more local and finer scales. Since the evaluation of species' conservation status and habitat quality should as far as possible be performed based on scalable indicators linking to meaningful processes, our framework may guide conservation managers in decision-making related to biodiversity monitoring and reporting schemes.

Lost in the crowd? Using eye-tracking to investigate the effect of complexity on attribute non-attendance in discrete choice experiments.

PubMed

Spinks, Jean; Mortimer, Duncan

2016-02-03

The provision of additional information is often assumed to improve consumption decisions, allowing consumers to more accurately weigh the costs and benefits of alternatives. However, increasing the complexity of decision problems may prompt changes in information processing. This is particularly relevant for experimental methods such as discrete choice experiments (DCEs) where the researcher can manipulate the complexity of the decision problem. The primary aims of this study are (i) to test whether consumers actually process additional information in an already complex decision problem, and (ii) consider the implications of any such 'complexity-driven' changes in information processing for design and analysis of DCEs. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is used to simulate a complex decision problem; here, the choice between complementary and conventional medicine for different health conditions. Eye-tracking technology is used to capture the number of times and the duration that a participant looks at any part of a computer screen during completion of DCE choice sets. From this we can analyse what has become known in the DCE literature as 'attribute non-attendance' (ANA). Using data from 32 participants, we model the likelihood of ANA as a function of choice set complexity and respondent characteristics using fixed and random effects models to account for repeated choice set completion. We also model whether participants are consistent with regard to which characteristics (attributes) they consider across choice sets. We find that complexity is the strongest predictor of ANA when other possible influences, such as time pressure, ordering effects, survey specific effects and socio-demographic variables (including proxies for prior experience with the decision problem) are considered. We also find that most participants do not apply a consistent information processing strategy across choice sets. Eye-tracking technology shows promise as a way of obtaining additional information from consumer research, improving DCE design, and informing the design of policy measures. With regards to DCE design, results from the present study suggest that eye-tracking data can identify the point at which adding complexity (and realism) to DCE choice scenarios becomes self-defeating due to unacceptable increases in ANA. Eye-tracking data therefore has clear application in the construction of guidelines for DCE design and during piloting of DCE choice scenarios. With regards to design of policy measures such as labelling requirements for CAM and conventional medicines, the provision of additional information has the potential to make difficult decisions even harder and may not have the desired effect on decision-making.

Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning

PubMed Central

Maurer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2017-01-01

We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)–or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)–to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability), desirability (value), and distinguishability (value range) of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water supply planning in the case study and beyond. PMID:28481881

Decision technology.

PubMed

Edwards, W; Fasolo, B

2001-01-01

This review is about decision technology-the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. First, we review the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision technology-multi-attribute utility, Bayes' theorem, and subjective expected utility maximization. Since the inception of decision research, these rules have prescribed how we should infer values and probabilities and how we should combine them to make better decisions. We suggest how to make best use of all three rules in a comprehensive 19-step model. The remainder of the review explores recently developed tools of decision technology. It examines the characteristics and problems of decision-facilitating sites on the World Wide Web. Such sites now provide anyone who can use a personal computer with access to very sophisticated decision-aiding tools structured mainly to facilitate consumer decision making. It seems likely that the Web will be the mode by means of which decision tools will be distributed to lay users. But methods for doing such apparently simple things as winnowing 3000 options down to a more reasonable number, like 10, contain traps for unwary decision technologists. The review briefly examines Bayes nets and influence diagrams-judgment and decision-making tools that are available as computer programs. It very briefly summarizes the state of the art of eliciting probabilities from experts. It concludes that decision tools will be as important in the 21st century as spreadsheets were in the 20th.

Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm.

PubMed

Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

2014-02-01

When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Twelfth Annual Conference on Manual Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wempe, T. E.

1976-01-01

Main topics discussed cover multi-task decision making, attention allocation and workload measurement, displays and controls, nonvisual displays, tracking and other psychomotor tasks, automobile driving, handling qualities and pilot ratings, remote manipulation, system identification, control models, and motion and visual cues. Sixty-five papers are included with presentations on results of analytical studies to develop and evaluate human operator models for a range of control task, vehicle dynamics and display situations; results of tests of physiological control systems and applications to medical problems; and on results of simulator and flight tests to determine display, control and dynamics effects on operator performance and workload for aircraft, automobile, and remote control systems.

Consumer Perceptions About Pilot Training: An Emotional Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosser, Timothy G.

Civilian pilot training has followed a traditional path for several decades. With a potential pilot shortage approaching, ICAO proposed a new paradigm in pilot training methodology called the Multi-Crew Pilot License. This new methodology puts a pilot in the cockpit of an airliner with significantly less flight time experience than the traditional methodology. The purpose of this study was to determine to what extent gender, country of origin and pilot training methodology effect an aviation consumer's willingness to fly. Additionally, this study attempted to determine what emotions mediate a consumer's decision. This study surveyed participants from India and the United States to measure their willingness to fly using the Willingness to Fly Scale shown to be valid and reliable by Rice et al. (2015). The scale uses a five point Likert-type scale. In order to determine the mediating emotions, Ekman and Friesen's (1979) universal emotions, which are happiness, surprise, fear, disgust, anger, and sadness were used. Data were analyzed using SPSS. Descriptive statistics are provided for respondent's age and willingness to fly values. An ANOVA was conducted to test the first four hypotheses and Hayes (2004, 2008) bootstrapping process was used for the mediation analysis. Results indicated a significant main effect for training, F(1,972) = 227.76, p . .001, etap 2 = 0.190, country of origin, F(1, 972) = 28.86, p < .001, .p 2 = 0.029, and a two-way interaction was indicated between training and country of origin, F(7, 972) = 46.71, p < .001, etap 2 = 0.252. Mediation analysis indicated the emotions anger, fear, happiness, and surprise mediated the relationship between training and country of origin, and training. The findings of this study are important to designers of MPL training programs and airline marketers.

Developing and pilot testing a shared decision-making intervention for dialysis choice.

PubMed

Finderup, Jeanette; Jensen, Jens K D; Lomborg, Kirsten

2018-04-17

Evidence is inconclusive on how best to guide the patient in decision-making around haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis choice. International guidelines recommend involvement of the patient in the decision to choose the dialysis modality most suitable for the individual patient. Nevertheless, studies have shown lack of involvement of the patient in decision-making. To develop and pilot test an intervention for shared decision-making targeting the choice of dialysis modality. This study reflects the first two phases of a complex intervention design: phase 1, the development process and phase 2, feasibility and piloting. Because decision aids were a part of the intervention, the International Patient Decision Aid Standards were considered. The pilot test included both the intervention and the feasibility of the validated shared decision-making questionnaire (SDM Q9) and the Decision Quality Measure (DQM) applied to evaluate the intervention. A total of 137 patients tested the intervention. After the intervention, 80% of the patients chose dialysis at home reflecting an increase of 23% in starting dialysis at home prior to the study. The SDM Q9 showed the majority of the patients experienced this intervention as shared decision-making. An intervention based on shared decision-making supported by decision aids seemed to increase the number of patients choosing home dialysis. The SDM Q9 and DQM were feasible evaluation tools. Further research is needed to gain insight into the patients' experiences of involvement and the implications for their choice of dialysis modality. © 2018 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Deriving preference order of post-mining land-uses through MLSA framework: application of an outranking technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltanmohammadi, Hossein; Osanloo, Morteza; Aghajani Bazzazi, Abbas

2009-08-01

This study intends to take advantage of a previously developed framework for mined land suitability analysis (MLSA) consisted of economical, social, technical and mine site factors to achieve a partial and also a complete pre-order of feasible post-mining land-uses. Analysis by an outranking multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) technique, called PROMETHEE (preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation), was taken into consideration because of its clear advantages on the field of MLSA as compared with MADM ranking techniques. Application of the proposed approach on a mined land can be completed through some successive steps. First, performance of the MLSA attributes is scored locally by each individual decision maker (DM). Then the assigned performance scores are normalized and the deviation amplitudes of non-dominated alternatives are calculated. Weights of the attributes are calculated by another MADM technique namely, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in a separate procedure. Using the Gaussian preference function beside the weights, the preference indexes of the land-use alternatives are obtained. Calculation of the outgoing and entering flows of the alternatives and one by one comparison of these values will lead to partial pre-order of them and calculation of the net flows, will lead to a ranked preference for each land-use. At the final step, utilizing the PROMETHEE group decision support system which incorporates judgments of all the DMs, a consensual ranking can be derived. In this paper, preference order of post-mining land-uses for a hypothetical mined land has been derived according to judgments of one DM to reveal applicability of the proposed approach.

Multi-Attribute Sequential Search

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bearden, J. Neil; Connolly, Terry

2007-01-01

This article describes empirical and theoretical results from two multi-attribute sequential search tasks. In both tasks, the DM sequentially encounters options described by two attributes and must pay to learn the values of the attributes. In the "continuous" version of the task the DM learns the precise numerical value of an attribute when she…

The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

PubMed

Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele

2015-05-01

Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Multi-Task Learning with Low Rank Attribute Embedding for Multi-Camera Person Re-Identification.

PubMed

Su, Chi; Yang, Fan; Zhang, Shiliang; Tian, Qi; Davis, Larry Steven; Gao, Wen

2018-05-01

We propose Multi-Task Learning with Low Rank Attribute Embedding (MTL-LORAE) to address the problem of person re-identification on multi-cameras. Re-identifications on different cameras are considered as related tasks, which allows the shared information among different tasks to be explored to improve the re-identification accuracy. The MTL-LORAE framework integrates low-level features with mid-level attributes as the descriptions for persons. To improve the accuracy of such description, we introduce the low-rank attribute embedding, which maps original binary attributes into a continuous space utilizing the correlative relationship between each pair of attributes. In this way, inaccurate attributes are rectified and missing attributes are recovered. The resulting objective function is constructed with an attribute embedding error and a quadratic loss concerning class labels. It is solved by an alternating optimization strategy. The proposed MTL-LORAE is tested on four datasets and is validated to outperform the existing methods with significant margins.

Multi-disciplinary decision making in general practice.

PubMed

Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin

2018-04-09

Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.

Using Artificial Intelligence to Inform Pilots of Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

2006-01-01

An automated system to assist a General Aviation (GA) pilot in improving situational awareness of weather in flight is now undergoing development. This development is prompted by the observation that most fatal GA accidents are attributable to loss of weather awareness. Loss of weather awareness, in turn, has been attributed to the difficulty of interpreting traditional preflight weather briefings and the difficulty of both obtaining and interpreting traditional in-flight weather briefings. The developmental automated system not only improves weather awareness but also substantially reduces the time a pilot must spend in acquiring and maintaining weather awareness.

Blame attribution as a moderator of perceptions of sexual orientation-based hate crimes.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Chandler, Joseph F; Wakeman, Emily E

2010-05-01

Blame attribution is a valuable mechanism explaining decision making. However, present literature mainly employs blame attribution as a dependent variable. The shortcoming of this fact is that blame attribution offers a potentially valuable explanatory mechanism for decision making. The authors designed two studies to investigate blame attribution as a moderator of sentencing decisions in sexual orientation-based hate crimes. Study 1 showed that mock jurors punished perpetrators of hate crimes more severely than a control condition. Also, degree of victim blame influenced punitive decision making. In Study 2, mock jurors extended findings that perpetrators of hate crimes are more harshly punished than those of other types of crimes. Victim and perpetrator blame failed to moderate decision making in this more complex scenario. Results are discussed in relation to hate crimes definitions and attribution theory.

Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

2017-01-01

Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada.

PubMed

Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W

2013-01-01

Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tools for Prioritising Emerging or Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases Associated with Climate Change in Canada

PubMed Central

Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software ‘M-MACBETH’. The tools were trialed on nine ‘test’ pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued. PMID:23950868

Implementation and flight-test of a multi-mode rotorcraft flight-control system for single-pilot use in poor visibility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hindson, William S.

1987-01-01

A flight investigation was conducted to evaluate a multi-mode flight control system designed according to the most recent recommendations for handling qualities criteria for new military helicopters. The modes and capabilities that were included in the system are those considered necessary to permit divided-attention (single-pilot) lowspeed and hover operations near the ground in poor visibility conditions. Design features included mode-selection and mode-blending logic, the use of an automatic position-hold mode that employed precision measurements of aircraft position, and a hover display which permitted manually-controlled hover flight tasks in simulated instrument conditions. Pilot evaluations of the system were conducted using a multi-segment evaluation task. Pilot comments concerning the use of the system are provided, and flight-test data are presented to show system performance.

Robotic intelligence kernel

DOEpatents

Bruemmer, David J [Idaho Falls, ID

2009-11-17

A robot platform includes perceptors, locomotors, and a system controller. The system controller executes a robot intelligence kernel (RIK) that includes a multi-level architecture and a dynamic autonomy structure. The multi-level architecture includes a robot behavior level for defining robot behaviors, that incorporate robot attributes and a cognitive level for defining conduct modules that blend an adaptive interaction between predefined decision functions and the robot behaviors. The dynamic autonomy structure is configured for modifying a transaction capacity between an operator intervention and a robot initiative and may include multiple levels with at least a teleoperation mode configured to maximize the operator intervention and minimize the robot initiative and an autonomous mode configured to minimize the operator intervention and maximize the robot initiative. Within the RIK at least the cognitive level includes the dynamic autonomy structure.

The Effects of Safety Information on Aeronautical Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jang R.; Fanjoy, Richard O.; Dillman, Brian G.

2005-01-01

The importance of aeronautical decision making (ADM) has been considered one of the most critical issues of flight education for future professional pilots. Researchers have suggested that a safety information system based on information from incidents and near misses is an important tool to improve the intelligence and readiness of pilots. This paper describes a study that examines the effect of safety information on aeronautical decision making for students in a collegiate flight program. Data was collected from study participants who were exposed to periodic information about local aircraft malfunctions. Participants were then evaluated using a flight simulator profile and a pen and pencil test of situational judgment. Findings suggest that regular access to the described safety information program significantly improves decision making of student pilots.

Team performance in networked supervisory control of unmanned air vehicles: effects of automation, working memory, and communication content.

PubMed

McKendrick, Ryan; Shaw, Tyler; de Visser, Ewart; Saqer, Haneen; Kidwell, Brian; Parasuraman, Raja

2014-05-01

Assess team performance within a net-worked supervisory control setting while manipulating automated decision aids and monitoring team communication and working memory ability. Networked systems such as multi-unmanned air vehicle (UAV) supervision have complex properties that make prediction of human-system performance difficult. Automated decision aid can provide valuable information to operators, individual abilities can limit or facilitate team performance, and team communication patterns can alter how effectively individuals work together. We hypothesized that reliable automation, higher working memory capacity, and increased communication rates of task-relevant information would offset performance decrements attributed to high task load. Two-person teams performed a simulated air defense task with two levels of task load and three levels of automated aid reliability. Teams communicated and received decision aid messages via chat window text messages. Task Load x Automation effects were significant across all performance measures. Reliable automation limited the decline in team performance with increasing task load. Average team spatial working memory was a stronger predictor than other measures of team working memory. Frequency of team rapport and enemy location communications positively related to team performance, and word count was negatively related to team performance. Reliable decision aiding mitigated team performance decline during increased task load during multi-UAV supervisory control. Team spatial working memory, communication of spatial information, and team rapport predicted team success. An automated decision aid can improve team performance under high task load. Assessment of spatial working memory and the communication of task-relevant information can help in operator and team selection in supervisory control systems.

A decision support for an integrated multi-scale analysis of irrigation: DSIRR.

PubMed

Bazzani, Guido M

2005-12-01

The paper presents a decision support designed to conduct an economic-environmental assessment of the agricultural activity focusing on irrigation called 'Decision Support for IRRigated Agriculture' (DSIRR). The program describes the effect at catchment scale of choices taken at micro scale by independent actors, the farmers, by simulating their decision process. The decision support (DS) has been thought of as a support tool for participatory water policies as requested by the Water Framework Directive and it aims at analyzing alternatives in production and technology, according to different market, policy and climate conditions. The tool uses data and models, provides a graphical user interface and can incorporate the decision makers' own insights. Heterogeneity in preferences is admitted since it is assumed that irrigators try to optimize personal multi-attribute utility functions, subject to a set of constraints. Consideration of agronomic and engineering aspects allows an accurate description of irrigation. Mathematical programming techniques are applied to find solutions. The program has been applied in the river Po basin (northern Italy) to analyze the impact of a pricing policy in a context of irrigation technology innovation. Water demand functions and elasticity to water price have been estimated. Results demonstrate how different areas and systems react to the same policy in quite a different way. While in the annual cropping system pricing seems effective to save the resource at the cost of impeding Water Agencies cost recovery, the same policy has an opposite effect in the perennial fruit system which shows an inelastic response to water price. The multidimensional assessment conducted clarified the trades-off among conflicting economic-social-environmental objectives, thus generating valuable information to design a more tailored mix of measures.

A discrete choice experiment investigating preferences for funding drugs used to treat orphan diseases: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Mentzakis, Emmanouil; Stefanowska, Patricia; Hurley, Jeremiah

2011-07-01

Policy debate about funding criteria for drugs used to treat rare, orphan diseases is gaining prominence. This study presents evidence from a discrete choice experiment using a convenience sample of university students to investigate individual preferences regarding public funding for drugs used to treat rare diseases and common diseases. This pilot study finds that: other things equal, the respondents do not prefer to have the government spend more for drugs used to treat rare diseases; that respondents are not willing to pay more per life year gained for a rare disease than a common disease; and that respondents weigh relevant attributes of the coverage decisions (e.g. costs, disease severity and treatment effectiveness) similarly for both rare and common diseases. The results confirm the importance of severity and treatment effectiveness in preferences for public funding. Although this is the first study of its kind, the results send a cautionary message regarding the special treatment of orphan drugs in coverage decision-making.

Patients' Non-Medical Characteristics Contribute to Collective Medical Decision-Making at Multidisciplinary Oncological Team Meetings.

PubMed

Restivo, Léa; Apostolidis, Thémis; Bouhnik, Anne-Déborah; Garciaz, Sylvain; Aurran, Thérèse; Julian-Reynier, Claire

2016-01-01

The contribution of patients' non-medical characteristics to individual physicians' decision-making has attracted considerable attention, but little information is available on this topic in the context of collective decision-making. Medical decision-making at cancer centres is currently carried out using a collective approach, at MultiDisciplinary Team (MDT) meetings. The aim of this study was to determine how patients' non-medical characteristics are presented at MDT meetings and how this information may affect the team's final medical decisions. Observations were conducted at a French Cancer Centre during MDT meetings at which non-standard cases involving some uncertainty were discussed from March to May 2014. Physicians' verbal statements and predefined contextual parameters were collected with a non-participant observational approach. Non numerical data collected in the form of open notes were then coded for quantitative analysis. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. In the final sample of patients' records included and discussed (N = 290), non-medical characteristics were mentioned in 32.8% (n = 95) of the cases. These characteristics corresponded to demographics in 22.8% (n = 66) of the cases, psychological data in 11.7% (n = 34), and relational data in 6.2% (n = 18). The patient's age and his/her "likeability" were the most frequently mentioned characteristics. In 17.9% of the cases discussed, the final decision was deferred: this outcome was positively associated with the patients' non-medical characteristics and with uncertainty about the outcome of the therapeutic options available. The design of the study made it difficult to draw definite cause-and-effect conclusions. The Social Representations approach suggests that patients' non-medical characteristics constitute a kind of tacit professional knowledge that may be frequently mobilised in physicians' everyday professional practice. The links observed between patients' attributes and the medical decisions made at these meetings show that these attributes should be taken into account in order to understand how medical decisions are reached in difficult situations of this kind.

A Moral (Normative) Framework for the Judgment of Actions and Decisions in the Construction Industry and Engineering: Part II.

PubMed

Alkhatib, Omar J

2017-12-01

The construction industry is typically characterized as a fragmented, multi-organizational setting in which members from different technical backgrounds and moral values join together to develop a particular business or project. The most challenging obstacle in the construction process is to achieve a successful practice and to identify and apply an ethical framework to manage the behavior of involved specialists and contractors and to ensure the quality of all completed construction activities. The framework should reflect a common moral ground for myriad people involved in this process to survive and compete ethically in today's turbulent construction market. This study establishes a framework for moral judgment of behavior and actions conducted in the construction process. The moral framework provides the basis of judging actions as "moral" or "immoral" based on three levels of moral accountability: personal, professional, and social. The social aspect of the proposed framework is developed primarily from the essential attributes of normative business decision-making models identified in the literature review and subsequently incorporates additional attributes related to professional and personal moral values. The normative decision-making models reviewed are based primarily on social attributes as related to moral theories (e.g., utilitarianism, duty, rights, virtue, etc.). The professional and moral attributes are established by identifying a set of common moral values recognized by professionals in the construction industry and required to prevent common construction breaches. The moral framework presented here is the complementary part of the ethical framework developed in Part I of this article and is based primarily on the personal behavior or the moral aspect of professional responsibility. The framework can be implemented as a form of preventive personal ethics, which would help avoid ethical dilemmas and moral implications in the first place. Furthermore, the moral framework can be considered as a decision-making model to guide actions and improve the moral reasoning process, which would help individuals think through possible implications and the consequences of ethical and moral issues in the construction industry.

Knowledge based system and decision making methodologies in materials selection for aircraft cabin metallic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, Pashupati Raj

Materials selection processes have been the most important aspects in product design and development. Knowledge-based system (KBS) and some of the methodologies used in the materials selection for the design of aircraft cabin metallic structures are discussed. Overall aircraft weight reduction means substantially less fuel consumption. Part of the solution to this problem is to find a way to reduce overall weight of metallic structures inside the cabin. Among various methodologies of materials selection using Multi Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) techniques, a few of them are demonstrated with examples and the results are compared with those obtained using Ashby's approach in materials selection. Pre-defined constraint values, mainly mechanical properties, are employed as relevant attributes in the process. Aluminum alloys with high strength-to-weight ratio have been second-to-none in most of the aircraft parts manufacturing. Magnesium alloys that are much lighter in weight as alternatives to the Al-alloys currently in use in the structures are tested using the methodologies and ranked results are compared. Each material attribute considered in the design are categorized as benefit and non-benefit attribute. Using Ashby's approach, material indices that are required to be maximized for an optimum performance are determined, and materials are ranked based on the average of consolidated indices ranking. Ranking results are compared for any disparity among the methodologies.

Choices Behind Numbers: a Review of the Major Air Pollution Health Impact Assessments in Europe.

PubMed

Malmqvist, E; Oudin, A; Pascal, M; Medina, S

2018-03-01

The aim of this review is to identify the key contextual and methodological differences in health impact assessments (HIA) of ambient air pollution performed for Europe. We limited our review to multi-country reviews. An additional aim is to quantify some of these differences by applying them in a HIA template in three European cities. Several HIAs of ambient air pollution have been performed for Europe, and their key results have been largely disseminated. Different studies have, however, come up with substantial differences in attributed health effects. It is of importance to review the background contributing to these differences and to quantify their importance for decision makers who will use them. We identified several methodological differences that could explain the discrepancy behind the number of attributable deaths or years of life lost. The main differences are due to the exposure-response functions chosen, the ways of assessing air pollution levels, the air pollution scenarios and the study population. In the quantification part, we found that using risk estimates from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) instead of the American Cancer Society (ACS) study could nearly double the attributable burden of ambient air pollution. This study provides some insights into the differential results in previously published HIAs on air pollution in Europe. These results are important for stakeholders in order to make informed decisions.

Thermal power systems small power systems applications project. Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume 1: A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis. [explanation of multiattribute decision analysis methods used in evaluating alternatives for small powered systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1978-01-01

The principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis are described. Topics discussed include the concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and decision alternatives.

The process of processing: exploring the validity of Neisser's perceptual cycle model with accounts from critical decision-making in the cockpit.

PubMed

Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

The perceptual cycle model (PCM) has been widely applied in ergonomics research in domains including road, rail and aviation. The PCM assumes that information processing occurs in a cyclical manner drawing on top-down and bottom-up influences to produce perceptual exploration and actions. However, the validity of the model has not been addressed. This paper explores the construct validity of the PCM in the context of aeronautical decision-making. The critical decision method was used to interview 20 helicopter pilots about critical decision-making. The data were qualitatively analysed using an established coding scheme, and composite PCMs for incident phases were constructed. It was found that the PCM provided a mutually exclusive and exhaustive classification of the information-processing cycles for dealing with critical incidents. However, a counter-cycle was also discovered which has been attributed to skill-based behaviour, characteristic of experts. The practical applications and future research questions are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper explores whether information processing, when dealing with critical incidents, occurs in the manner anticipated by the perceptual cycle model. In addition to the traditional processing cycle, a reciprocal counter-cycle was found. This research can be utilised by those who use the model as an accident analysis framework.

Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Scott, Ryan P; Cullen, Alison C; Fox-Lent, Cate; Linkov, Igor

2016-10-01

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA-MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi-attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Ranking of pharmaceuticals detected in the environment: aggregation and weighting procedures.

PubMed

Voigt, Kristina; Brüggemann, Rainer

2008-12-01

Pharmaceuticals are omnipresent in waste-water world-wide. Research has shown that many pharmaceuticals are not completely removed during wastewater treatment, and as a result, this has led to their occurrence being reported in waste water treatment plant effluents, rivers and lakes, and more rarely in groundwater and in drinking water. Hence, it is only logical that pharmaceutical residues in the environment and their potential toxic effects have been recognized as one of the emerging research areas in environmental chemistry. A lack of data, especially ecotoxicological and fate data on pharmaceuticals, is evident. The extent to which data are missing should therefore be looked upon in more detail in order to trigger further political steps in performing studies concerning the risk assessment of pharmaceuticals in the environment. In this investigation, we evaluate the data-availability of 16 pharmaceuticals in 17 Internet databases which means we examine a 16 (objects) x 17 (attributes) data-matrix. The consideration of the chosen pharmaceutical in databases is coded 0 = not available, or 1 = available. For the evaluation of the data-matrix, we apply the multi-criteria decision method named METEOR (Method of Evaluation by Order Theory). In contrast to conventional multi-criteria decision aids, like the well-known PROMETHEE, AHP, SMART, ORESTE as well as different versions of ELECTRE, we support the basic consideration of environmetrics: let first the data speak and let us then include subjective preferences in order to get a unique decision. The basis of METEOR is a data-matrix in which the objects are characterized by a set of attributes (indicators). By means of the attributes, a partial order is derived. In the subsequent steps, attributes are aggregated by a weighting procedure, allowing a high degree of involvement of experts, stakeholders and other participants. All conducted approaches show that the data-situation on the chosen test-set of 16 well-known and highly produced pharmaceuticals is far from being satisfactory. For the two well-known pharmaceuticals roxithomycin (antibiotic) and diatrizoate (contrast media), the data-situation is extremely bad, independent of how the weighting is performed. The data-availability for diatrizoate is a little better. The best data coverage is detected for the chemicals carbamazepine, diazepam, ethinyl estradiol, 5-fluorouracil, and phenazone. The issue of pharmaceuticals in the environment and the unavailability of data necessitate much closer communication between science and medical healthcare and politicians in the future.

Contribution of the Multi Attribute Value Theory to conflict resolution in groundwater management. Application to the Mancha Oriental groundwater system, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apperl, B.; Andreu, J.; Karjalainen, T. P.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.

2014-09-01

The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive demands participatory water resource management approaches. Decision making in groundwater quantity and quality management is complex because of the existence of many independent actors, heterogeneous stakeholder interests, multiple objectives, different potential policies, and uncertain outcomes. Conflicting stakeholder interests have been often identified as an impediment to the realization and success of water regulations and policies. The management of complex groundwater systems requires clarifying stakeholders' positions (identifying stakeholders preferences and values), improving transparency with respect to outcomes of alternatives, and moving the discussion from the selection of alternatives towards definition of fundamental objectives (value-thinking approach), what facilitates negotiation. The aims of the study are to analyse the potential of the multi attribute value theory for conflict resolution in groundwater management and to evaluate the benefit of stakeholder incorporation in the different stages of the planning process to find an overall satisfying solution for groundwater management. The research was conducted in the Mancha Oriental groundwater system (Spain), subject to an intensive use of groundwater for irrigation. A complex set of objectives and attributes were defined, and the management alternatives were created by a combination of different fundamental actions, considering different implementation stages and future changes in water resources availability. Interviews were conducted with representative stakeholder groups using an interactive platform, showing simultaneously the consequences of changes of preferences to the alternative ranking. Results show that the acceptation of alternatives depends strongly on the combination of measures and the implementation stages. Uncertainties of the results were notable but did not influence heavily on the alternative ranking. The expected reduction of future groundwater resources by climate change increases the conflict potential. The implementation of the method to a very complex case study, with many conflicting objectives and alternatives and uncertain outcomes, including future scenarios under water limiting conditions, illustrate the potential of the method for supporting management decisions.

Contribution of the multi-attribute value theory to conflict resolution in groundwater management - application to the Mancha Oriental groundwater system, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apperl, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Andreu, J.; Karjalainen, T. P.

2015-03-01

The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive demands participatory water resource management approaches. Decision making in groundwater quantity and quality management is complex because of the existence of many independent actors, heterogeneous stakeholder interests, multiple objectives, different potential policies, and uncertain outcomes. Conflicting stakeholder interests have often been identified as an impediment to the realisation and success of water regulations and policies. The management of complex groundwater systems requires the clarification of stakeholders' positions (identifying stakeholder preferences and values), improving transparency with respect to outcomes of alternatives, and moving the discussion from the selection of alternatives towards the definition of fundamental objectives (value-thinking approach), which facilitates negotiation. The aims of the study are to analyse the potential of the multi-attribute value theory for conflict resolution in groundwater management and to evaluate the benefit of stakeholder incorporation into the different stages of the planning process, to find an overall satisfying solution for groundwater management. The research was conducted in the Mancha Oriental groundwater system (Spain), subject to intensive use of groundwater for irrigation. A complex set of objectives and attributes was defined, and the management alternatives were created by a combination of different fundamental actions, considering different implementation stages and future changes in water resource availability. Interviews were conducted with representative stakeholder groups using an interactive platform, showing simultaneously the consequences of changes in preferences to the alternative ranking. Results show that the approval of alternatives depends strongly on the combination of measures and the implementation stages. Uncertainties in the results were notable, but did not influence the alternative ranking heavily. The expected reduction in future groundwater resources by climate change increases the conflict potential. The implementation of the method in a very complex case study, with many conflicting objectives and alternatives and uncertain outcomes, including future scenarios under water limiting conditions, illustrates the potential of the method for supporting management decisions.

Attitudes toward Infection Prophylaxis in Pediatric Oncology: A Qualitative Approach

PubMed Central

Diorio, Caroline; Tomlinson, Deborah; Boydell, Katherine M.; Regier, Dean A.; Ethier, Marie-Chantal; Alli, Amanda; Alexander, Sarah; Gassas, Adam; Taylor, Jonathan; Kellow, Charis; Mills, Denise; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

Background The risks and benefits of infection prophylaxis are uncertain in children with cancer and thus, preferences should be considered in decision making. The purpose of this report was to describe the attitudes of parents, children and healthcare professionals to infection prophylaxis in pediatric oncology. Methods The study was completed in three phases: 1) An initial qualitative pilot to identify the main attributes influencing the decision to use infection prophylaxis, which were then incorporated into a discrete choice experiment; 2) A think aloud during the discrete choice experiment in which preferences for infection prophylaxis were elicited quantitatively; and 3) In-depth follow up interviews. Interviews were recorded verbatim and analyzed using an iterative, thematic analysis. Final themes were selected using a consensus approach. Results A total of 35 parents, 22 children and 28 healthcare professionals participated. All three groups suggested that the most important factor influencing their decision making was the effect of prophylaxis on reducing the chance of death. Themes of importance to the three groups included antimicrobial resistance, side effects of medications, the financial impact of outpatient prophylaxis and the route and schedule of administration. Conclusion Effect of prophylaxis on risk of death was a key factor in decision making. Other identified factors were antimicrobial resistance, side effects of medication, financial impact and administration details. Better understanding of factors driving decision making for infection prophylaxis will help facilitate future implementation of prophylactic regiments. PMID:23112849

Attitudes toward infection prophylaxis in pediatric oncology: a qualitative approach.

PubMed

Diorio, Caroline; Tomlinson, Deborah; Boydell, Katherine M; Regier, Dean A; Ethier, Marie-Chantal; Alli, Amanda; Alexander, Sarah; Gassas, Adam; Taylor, Jonathan; Kellow, Charis; Mills, Denise; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

The risks and benefits of infection prophylaxis are uncertain in children with cancer and thus, preferences should be considered in decision making. The purpose of this report was to describe the attitudes of parents, children and healthcare professionals to infection prophylaxis in pediatric oncology. THE STUDY WAS COMPLETED IN THREE PHASES: 1) An initial qualitative pilot to identify the main attributes influencing the decision to use infection prophylaxis, which were then incorporated into a discrete choice experiment; 2) A think aloud during the discrete choice experiment in which preferences for infection prophylaxis were elicited quantitatively; and 3) In-depth follow up interviews. Interviews were recorded verbatim and analyzed using an iterative, thematic analysis. Final themes were selected using a consensus approach. A total of 35 parents, 22 children and 28 healthcare professionals participated. All three groups suggested that the most important factor influencing their decision making was the effect of prophylaxis on reducing the chance of death. Themes of importance to the three groups included antimicrobial resistance, side effects of medications, the financial impact of outpatient prophylaxis and the route and schedule of administration. Effect of prophylaxis on risk of death was a key factor in decision making. Other identified factors were antimicrobial resistance, side effects of medication, financial impact and administration details. Better understanding of factors driving decision making for infection prophylaxis will help facilitate future implementation of prophylactic regiments.

Single-step affinity purification of enzyme biotherapeutics: a platform methodology for accelerated process development.

PubMed

Brower, Kevin P; Ryakala, Venkat K; Bird, Ryan; Godawat, Rahul; Riske, Frank J; Konstantinov, Konstantin; Warikoo, Veena; Gamble, Jean

2014-01-01

Downstream sample purification for quality attribute analysis is a significant bottleneck in process development for non-antibody biologics. Multi-step chromatography process train purifications are typically required prior to many critical analytical tests. This prerequisite leads to limited throughput, long lead times to obtain purified product, and significant resource requirements. In this work, immunoaffinity purification technology has been leveraged to achieve single-step affinity purification of two different enzyme biotherapeutics (Fabrazyme® [agalsidase beta] and Enzyme 2) with polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies, respectively, as ligands. Target molecules were rapidly isolated from cell culture harvest in sufficient purity to enable analysis of critical quality attributes (CQAs). Most importantly, this is the first study that demonstrates the application of predictive analytics techniques to predict critical quality attributes of a commercial biologic. The data obtained using the affinity columns were used to generate appropriate models to predict quality attributes that would be obtained after traditional multi-step purification trains. These models empower process development decision-making with drug substance-equivalent product quality information without generation of actual drug substance. Optimization was performed to ensure maximum target recovery and minimal target protein degradation. The methodologies developed for Fabrazyme were successfully reapplied for Enzyme 2, indicating platform opportunities. The impact of the technology is significant, including reductions in time and personnel requirements, rapid product purification, and substantially increased throughput. Applications are discussed, including upstream and downstream process development support to achieve the principles of Quality by Design (QbD) as well as integration with bioprocesses as a process analytical technology (PAT). © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Attributions of responsibility and affective reactions to decision outcomes.

PubMed

Zeelenberg, M; van der Pligt, J; de Vries, N K

2000-06-01

Immediate affective reactions to outcomes are more intense following decisions to act than following decisions not to act. This finding holds for both positive and negative outcomes. We relate this "actor-effect" to attribution theory and argue that decision makers are seen as more responsible for outcomes when these are the result of a decision to act as compared to a decision not to act. Experiment 1 (N = 80) tests the main assumption underlying our reasoning and shows that affective reactions to decision outcomes are indeed more intense when the decision maker is seen as more responsible. Experiment 2 (N = 40) tests whether the actor effect can be predicted on the basis of differential attributions following action and inaction. Participants read vignettes in which active and passive actors obtained a positive or negative outcome. Action resulted in more intense affect than inaction, and positive outcomes resulted in more intense affect than negative outcomes. Experiment 2 further shows that responsibility attributions and affective reactions to outcomes are highly correlated; that is, more extreme affective reactions are associated with more internal attributions. We discuss the implications for research on post-decisional reactions.

Situation Awareness Information Requirements for Commercial Airline Pilots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Endsley, Mica R.; Farley, Todd C.; Jones, William M.; Midkiff, Alan H.; Hansman, R. John

1998-01-01

Situation awareness is presented as a fundamental requirement for good airmanship, forming the basis for pilot decision making and performance. To develop a better understanding of the role of situation awareness in flying, an analysis was performed to determine the specific situation awareness information requirements for commercial aircraft pilots. This was conducted as a goal-directed task analysis in which pilots' major goals, subgoals, decisions, and associated situation awareness information requirements were delineated based on elicitation from experienced commercial airline pilots. A determination of the major situation awareness information requirements for visual and instrument flight was developed from this analysis, providing a foundation for future system development which seeks to enhance pilot situation awareness and provide a basis for the development of situation awareness measures for commercial flight.

Research on computer aided testing of pilot response to critical in-flight events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giffin, W. C.; Rockwell, T. H.; Smith, P. J.

1984-01-01

Experiments on pilot decision making are described. The development of models of pilot decision making in critical in flight events (CIFE) are emphasized. The following tests are reported on the development of: (1) a frame system representation describing how pilots use their knowledge in a fault diagnosis task; (2) assessment of script norms, distance measures, and Markov models developed from computer aided testing (CAT) data; and (3) performance ranking of subject data. It is demonstrated that interactive computer aided testing either by touch CRT's or personal computers is a useful research and training device for measuring pilot information management in diagnosing system failures in simulated flight situations. Performance is dictated by knowledge of aircraft sybsystems, initial pilot structuring of the failure symptoms and efficient testing of plausible causal hypotheses.

What patients look for when choosing a plastic surgeon: an assessment of patient preference by conjoint analysis.

PubMed

Waltzman, Joshua T; Scholz, Thomas; Evans, Gregory R D

2011-06-01

The knowledge of patient preference is crucial for plastic surgeons to determine optimal marketing strategies. Conjoint analysis is a statistical technique whereby research participants make a series of trade-offs. Analysis of these trade-offs reveals the relative importance of component attributes. This study will evaluate the relative importance of attributes that influence the selection and decision-making process when choosing a plastic surgeon. A questionnaire consisting of 18 plastic surgeon profiles was rated by 111 patients. Attributes analyzed were as follows: travel distance, number of years in practice, board certification status, method of referral, office décor, and procedure cost. A traditional full-profile conjoint analysis was performed. Subjects consisted of 10 men and 101 women (n = 111). Median age was 51 years (range, 19-72). The "mean importance" of the attributes are as follows: board certification status, 39.7%; method of referral, 23.5%; distance from home to office, 13.2%; office décor, 9.0%; number of years in practice, 7.5%; and cost of procedure, 7.2%. Internal validity checks showed a high correlation (Pearson ρ = 0.995; P < 0.001). This pilot study demonstrates that conjoint analysis is a very powerful tool for market research in the health care system. The level of importance for each attribute reliably helps plastic surgeons to understand the preferences of their patients, thus being able to improve marketing strategies for private practices and institutions. The present study indicates that the most important attributes were board certification and method of referral.

Human computer interactions in next-generation of aircraft smart navigation management systems: task analysis and architecture under an agent-oriented methodological approach.

PubMed

Canino-Rodríguez, José M; García-Herrero, Jesús; Besada-Portas, Juan; Ravelo-García, Antonio G; Travieso-González, Carlos; Alonso-Hernández, Jesús B

2015-03-04

The limited efficiency of current air traffic systems will require a next-generation of Smart Air Traffic System (SATS) that relies on current technological advances. This challenge means a transition toward a new navigation and air-traffic procedures paradigm, where pilots and air traffic controllers perform and coordinate their activities according to new roles and technological supports. The design of new Human-Computer Interactions (HCI) for performing these activities is a key element of SATS. However efforts for developing such tools need to be inspired on a parallel characterization of hypothetical air traffic scenarios compatible with current ones. This paper is focused on airborne HCI into SATS where cockpit inputs came from aircraft navigation systems, surrounding traffic situation, controllers' indications, etc. So the HCI is intended to enhance situation awareness and decision-making through pilot cockpit. This work approach considers SATS as a system distributed on a large-scale with uncertainty in a dynamic environment. Therefore, a multi-agent systems based approach is well suited for modeling such an environment. We demonstrate that current methodologies for designing multi-agent systems are a useful tool to characterize HCI. We specifically illustrate how the selected methodological approach provides enough guidelines to obtain a cockpit HCI design that complies with future SATS specifications.

Human Computer Interactions in Next-Generation of Aircraft Smart Navigation Management Systems: Task Analysis and Architecture under an Agent-Oriented Methodological Approach

PubMed Central

Canino-Rodríguez, José M.; García-Herrero, Jesús; Besada-Portas, Juan; Ravelo-García, Antonio G.; Travieso-González, Carlos; Alonso-Hernández, Jesús B.

2015-01-01

The limited efficiency of current air traffic systems will require a next-generation of Smart Air Traffic System (SATS) that relies on current technological advances. This challenge means a transition toward a new navigation and air-traffic procedures paradigm, where pilots and air traffic controllers perform and coordinate their activities according to new roles and technological supports. The design of new Human-Computer Interactions (HCI) for performing these activities is a key element of SATS. However efforts for developing such tools need to be inspired on a parallel characterization of hypothetical air traffic scenarios compatible with current ones. This paper is focused on airborne HCI into SATS where cockpit inputs came from aircraft navigation systems, surrounding traffic situation, controllers’ indications, etc. So the HCI is intended to enhance situation awareness and decision-making through pilot cockpit. This work approach considers SATS as a system distributed on a large-scale with uncertainty in a dynamic environment. Therefore, a multi-agent systems based approach is well suited for modeling such an environment. We demonstrate that current methodologies for designing multi-agent systems are a useful tool to characterize HCI. We specifically illustrate how the selected methodological approach provides enough guidelines to obtain a cockpit HCI design that complies with future SATS specifications. PMID:25746092

Decision-Making in Flight with Different Convective Weather Information Sources: Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara A.; Chamberlain, James P.

2004-01-01

This paper reports preliminary and partial results of a flight experiment to address how General Aviation (GA) pilots use weather cues to make flight decisions. This research presents pilots with weather cue conditions typically available to GA pilots in visual meteorological conditions (VMC) and instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) today, as well as in IMC with a Graphical Weather Information System (GWIS). These preliminary data indicate that both VMC and GWIS-augmented IMC conditions result in better confidence, information sufficiency and perceived performance than the current IMC condition. For all these measures, the VMC and GWIS-augmented conditions seemed to provide similar pilot support. These preliminary results are interpreted for their implications on GWIS display design, training, and operational use guidelines. Final experimental results will compare these subjective data with objective data of situation awareness and decision quality.

Framework and indicator testing protocol for developing and piloting quality indicators for the UK quality and outcomes framework.

PubMed

Campbell, Stephen M; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Hannon, Kerin; Burke, Martyn; Barber, Annette; Lester, Helen E

2011-08-10

Quality measures should be subjected to a testing protocol before being used in practice using key attributes such as acceptability, feasibility and reliability, as well as identifying issues derived from actual implementation and unintended consequences. We describe the methodologies and results of an indicator testing protocol (ITP) using data from proposed quality indicators for the United Kingdom Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF). The indicator testing protocol involved a multi-step and methodological process: 1) The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method, to test clarity and necessity, 2) data extraction from patients' medical records, to test technical feasibility and reliability, 3) diaries, to test workload, 4) cost-effectiveness modelling, and 5) semi-structured interviews, to test acceptability, implementation issues and unintended consequences. Testing was conducted in a sample of representative family practices in England. These methods were combined into an overall recommendation for each tested indicator. Using an indicator testing protocol as part of piloting was seen as a valuable way of testing potential indicators in 'real world' settings. Pilot 1 (October 2009-March 2010) involved thirteen indicators across six clinical domains and twelve indicators passed the indicator testing protocol. However, the indicator testing protocol identified a number of implementation issues and unintended consequences that can be rectified or removed prior to national roll out. A palliative care indicator is used as an exemplar of the value of piloting using a multiple attribute indicator testing protocol - while technically feasible and reliable, it was unacceptable to practice staff and raised concerns about potentially causing actual patient harm. This indicator testing protocol is one example of a protocol that may be useful in assessing potential quality indicators when adapted to specific country health care settings and may be of use to policy-makers and researchers worldwide to test the likely effect of implementing indicators prior to roll out. It builds on and codifies existing literature and other testing protocols to create a field testing methodology that can be used to produce country specific quality indicators for pay-for-performance or quality improvement schemes.

A decision support tool to prioritize risk management options for contaminated sites.

PubMed

Sorvari, Jaana; Seppälä, Jyri

2010-03-15

The decisions on risk management (RM) of contaminated sites in Finland have typically been driven by practical factors such as time and money. However, RM is a multifaceted task that generally involves several additional determinants, e.g. performance and environmental effects of remediation methods, psychological and social factors. Therefore, we adopted a multi-criteria decision analysis approach and developed a decision support tool (DST) that is viable in decision-making in such a complex situation. The basic components of the DST are based on the Dutch REC system. However, our DST is more case-specific and allows the consideration of the type, magnitude and scale of contamination, land use, environmental conditions and socio-cultural aspects (e.g. loss of cultural heritage, image aspects). The construction of the DST was started by structuring the decision problem using a value tree. Based on this work we adopted the Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) for data aggregation. The final DST was demonstrated by two model sites for which the RM alternatives and site-specific data were created on the basis of factual remediation projects and by interviewing experts. The demonstration of the DST was carried out in a workshop where representatives of different stakeholders were requested to rank and weight the decision criteria involved. To get information on the consistency of the ranking of the RM alternatives, we used different weighting techniques (ratio estimation and pair-wise weighting) and alternative ways to treat individual respondents' weights in calculating the preference scores for each RM alternative. These dissimilar approaches resulted in some differences in the preference order of the RM alternatives. The demonstration showed that attention has to be paid to the proper description of the site, the principles of the procedure and the decision criteria. Nevertheless, the procedure proved to enable efficient communication between different stakeholders and the identification of the preferred RM option.

Analysis respons to the implementation of nuclear installations safety culture using AHP-TOPSIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Situmorang, J.; Kuntoro, I.; Santoso, S.; Subekti, M.; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

An analysis of responses to the implementation of nuclear installations safety culture has been done using AHP (Analitic Hierarchy Process) - TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution). Safety culture is considered as collective commitments of the decision-making level, management level, and individual level. Thus each level will provide a subjective perspective as an alternative approach to implementation. Furthermore safety culture is considered by the statement of five characteristics which in more detail form consist of 37 attributes, and therefore can be expressed as multi-attribute state. Those characteristics and or attributes will be a criterion and its value is difficult to determine. Those criteria of course, will determine and strongly influence the implementation of the corresponding safety culture. To determine the pattern and magnitude of the influence is done by using a TOPSIS that is based on decision matrix approach and is composed of alternatives and criteria. The weight of each criterion is determined by AHP technique. The data used are data collected through questionnaires at the workshop on safety and health in 2015. .Reliability test of data gives Cronbah Alpha value of 95.5% which according to the criteria is stated reliable. Validity test using bivariate correlation analysis technique between each attribute give Pearson correlation for all attribute is significant at level 0,01. Using confirmatory factor analysis gives Kaise-Meyer-Olkin of sampling Adequacy (KMO) is 0.719 and it is greater than the acceptance criterion 0.5 as well as the 0.000 significance level much smaller than 0.05 and stated that further analysis could be performed. As a result of the analysis it is found that responses from the level of decision maker (second echelon) dominate the best order preference rank to be the best solution in strengthening the nuclear installation safety culture, except for the first characteristics, safety is a clearly recognized value. The rank of preference order is obtained sequentially according to the level of policy maker, management and individual or staff.

Multi-agent framework for negotiation in a closed environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cretan, Adina; Coutinho, Carlos; Bratu, Ben; Jardim-Goncalves, Ricardo

2013-10-01

The goal of this paper is to offer support for small and medium enterprises which cannot or do not want to fulfill a big contract alone. Each organization has limited resources and in order to better accomplish a higher external demand, the managers are forced to outsource parts of their contracts even to concurrent organizations. In this concurrent environment each enterprise wants to preserve its decision autonomy and to disclose as little as possible from its business information. To describe this interaction, our approach is to define a framework for managing parallel and concurrent negotiations among independent organizations acting in the same industrial market. The complexity of our negotiation framework is done by the dynamic environment in which multi-attribute and multi-participant negotiations are racing over the same set of resources. Moreover, the proposed framework helps the organizations within the collaborative networked environment to augment their efficiency and ability to react to unforeseen situations, thus improving their market competitiveness.

Age and expertise effects in aviation decision making and flight control in a flight simulator.

PubMed

Kennedy, Quinn; Taylor, Joy L; Reade, Gordon; Yesavage, Jerome A

2010-05-01

Age (due to declines in cognitive abilities necessary for navigation) and level of aviation expertise are two factors that may affect aviation performance and decision making under adverse weather conditions. We examined the roles of age, expertise, and their relationship on aviation decision making and flight control performance during a flight simulator task. Seventy-two IFR-rated general aviators, aged 19-79 yr, made multiple approach, holding pattern entry, and landing decisions while navigating under Instrument Flight Rules weather conditions. Over three trials in which the fog level varied, subjects decided whether or not to land the aircraft. They also completed two holding pattern entries. Subjects' flight control during approaches and holding patterns was measured. Older pilots (41+ yr) were more likely than younger pilots to land when visibility was inadequate (older pilots' mean false alarm rate: 0.44 vs 0.25). They also showed less precise flight control for components of the approach, performing 0.16 SD below mean approach scores. Expertise attenuated an age-related decline in flight control during holding patterns: older IFR/CFI performed 0.73 SD below mean score; younger IFR/CFI, younger CFII/ATP, older CFII/ATP: 0.32, 0.26, 0.03 SD above mean score. Additionally, pilots with faster processing speed (by median split) had a higher mean landing decision false alarm rate (0.42 vs 0.28), yet performed 0.14 SD above the mean approach control score. Results have implications regarding specialized training for older pilots and for understanding processes involved in older adults' real world decision making and performance.

A pilot level decision analysis of thermionic reactor development strategy for nuclear electric propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menke, M. M.; Judd, B. R.

1973-01-01

The development policy for thermionic reactors to provide electric propulsion and power for space exploration was analyzed to develop a logical procedure for selecting development alternatives that reflect the technical feasibility, JPL/NASA project objectives, and the economic environment of the project. The partial evolution of a decision model from the underlying philosophy of decision analysis to a deterministic pilot phase is presented, and the general manner in which this decision model can be employed to examine propulsion development alternatives is illustrated.

Using Multi-Component Consultation to Increase the Integrity with Which Teachers Implement Behavioral Classroom Interventions: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owens, Julie Sarno; Coles, Erika K.; Evans, Steven W.; Himawan, Lina K.; Girio-Herrera, Erin; Holdaway, Alex S.; Zoromski, Allison K.; Schamberg, Terah; Schulte, Ann

2017-01-01

The goal of this pilot study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a multi-component consultation package in improving teachers' classroom management skills, particularly among teachers with lower baseline levels of knowledge, skills, and intervention-supportive beliefs. Participants were 58 elementary school teachers (93% female; 50% Non-Hispanic…

Cognitive representations of flight-deck information attributes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Wendell R.; Jonsson, Jon E.; Rogers, William H.

1994-01-01

A large number of aviation issues are generically being called fligh-deck information management issues, underscoring the need for an organization or classification structure. One objective of this study was to empirically determine how pilots organize flight-deck information attributes and -- based upon that data -- develop a useful taxonomy (in terms of better understanding the problems and directing solutions) for classifying flight-deck information management issues. This study also empirically determined how pilots model the importance of flight-deck information attributes for managing information. The results of this analysis suggest areas in which flight-deck researchers and designers may wish to consider focusing their efforts.

A statistic-thermodynamic model for the DOM degradation in the estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Quanan; Chen, Qin; Zhao, Haihong; Shi, Jiuxin; Cao, Yong; Wang, Dan

2008-03-01

This study aims to clarify the role of dissolved salts playing in the degradation process of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) at a scale of molecular movement. The molecular thermal movement is perpetual motion. In a multi-molecular system, this random motion also causes collision between the molecules. Seawater is a multi-molecular system consisting from water, salt, and terrestrial DOM molecules. This study attributes the DOM degradation in the estuary to the inelastic collision of DOM molecule with charged salt ions. From statistic-thermodynamic theories of molecular collision, the DOM degradation model and the DOM distribution model are derived. The models are validated by the field observations and satellite data. Thus, we conclude that the inelastic collision between the terrestrial DOM molecules and dissolved salt ions in seawater is a decisive dynamic mechanism for rapid loss of terrestrial DOM.

Rough Evaluation Structure: Application of Rough Set Theory to Generate Simple Rules for Inconsistent Preference Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehrmann, Andreas; Nagai, Yoshimitsu; Yoshida, Osamu; Ishizu, Syohei

Since management decision-making becomes complex and preferences of the decision-maker frequently becomes inconsistent, multi-attribute decision-making problems were studied. To represent inconsistent preference relation, the concept of evaluation structure was introduced. We can generate simple rules to represent inconsistent preference relation by the evaluation structures. Further rough set theory for the preference relation was studied and the concept of approximation was introduced. One of our main aims of this paper is to introduce a concept of rough evaluation structure for representing inconsistent preference relation. We apply rough set theory to the evaluation structure, and develop a method for generating simple rules for inconsistent preference relations. In this paper, we introduce concepts of totally ordered information system, similarity class of preference relation, upper and lower approximation of preference relations. We also show the properties of rough evaluation structure and provide a simple example. As an application of rough evaluation structure, we analyze questionnaire survey of customer preferences about audio players.

Quality of Life for Diverse Older Adults in Assisted Living: The Centrality of Control.

PubMed

Koehn, Sharon D; Mahmood, Atiya N; Stott-Eveneshen, Sarah

This pilot project asked: How do ethnically diverse older adult residents of assisted living (AL) facilities in British Columbia (BC) experience quality of life? And, what role, if any, do organizational and physical environmental features play in influencing how quality of life is experienced? The study was conducted at three AL sites in BC: two ethnoculturally targeted and one nontargeted. Environmental audits at each site captured descriptive data on policies, fees, rules, staffing, meals, and activities, and the built environment of the AL building and neighborhood. Using a framework that understands the quality of life of older adults to be contingent on their capability to pursue 5 conceptual attributes-attachment, role, enjoyment, security, and control-we conducted 3 focus groups with residents (1 per site) and 6 interviews with staff (2 per site). Attributes were linked to the environmental features captured in the audits. All dimensions of the environment, especially organizational, influence tenants' capability to attain the attributes of quality of life, most importantly control. Although many tenants accept the trade-off between increased safety and diminished control that accompanies a move into AL, more could be done to minimize that loss. Social workers can advocate for the necessary multi-sectoral changes.

Rejecting a bad option feels like choosing a good one.

PubMed

Perfecto, Hannah; Galak, Jeff; Simmons, Joseph P; Nelson, Leif D

2017-11-01

Across 4,151 participants, the authors demonstrate a novel framing effect, attribute matching, whereby matching a salient attribute of a decision frame with that of a decision's options facilitates decision-making. This attribute matching is shown to increase decision confidence and, ultimately, consensus estimates by increasing feelings of metacognitive ease. In Study 1, participants choosing the more attractive of two faces or rejecting the less attractive face reported greater confidence in and perceived consensus around their decision. Using positive and negative words, Study 2 showed that the attribute's extremity moderates the size of the effect. Study 3 found decision ease mediates these changes in confidence and consensus estimates. Consistent with a misattribution account, when participants were warned about this external source of ease in Study 4, the effect disappeared. Study 5 extended attribute matching beyond valence to objective judgments. The authors conclude by discussing related psychological constructs as well as downstream consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Portable Weather Applications for General Aviation Pilots.

PubMed

Ahlstrom, Ulf; Ohneiser, Oliver; Caddigan, Eamon

2016-09-01

The objective of this study was to examine the potential benefits and impact on pilot behavior from the use of portable weather applications. Seventy general aviation (GA) pilots participated in the study. Each pilot was randomly assigned to an experimental or a control group and flew a simulated single-engine GA aircraft, initially under visual meteorological conditions (VMC). The experimental group was equipped with a portable weather application during flight. We recorded measures for weather situation awareness (WSA), decision making, cognitive engagement, and distance from the aircraft to hazardous weather. We found positive effects from the use of the portable weather application, with an increased WSA for the experimental group, which resulted in credibly larger route deviations and credibly greater distances to hazardous weather (≥30 dBZ cells) compared with the control group. Nevertheless, both groups flew less than 20 statute miles from hazardous weather cells, thus failing to follow current weather-avoidance guidelines. We also found a credibly higher cognitive engagement (prefrontal oxygenation levels) for the experimental group, possibly reflecting increased flight planning and decision making on the part of the pilots. Overall, the study outcome supports our hypothesis that portable weather displays can be used without degrading pilot performance on safety-related flight tasks, actions, and decisions as measured within the constraints of the present study. However, it also shows that an increased WSA does not automatically translate to enhanced flight behavior. The study outcome contributes to our knowledge of the effect of portable weather applications on pilot behavior and decision making. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Medically disqualified airline pilots.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-06-01

This study presents comprehensive data reflecting pertinent denial rates regarding the medical and general attributes of those airline pilots denied medical certification in calendar years 1983 and 1984. The overall annual denial rate of this group i...

Incorporating Data Link Messaging into a Multi-function Display for General Aviation Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Catherine A.; Murdoch, Jennifer L.

2006-01-01

One objective of the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Project is to increase the capacity and utilization of small non-towered, non-radar equipped airports by transferring traffic management activities to an automated system and separation responsibilities to general aviation (GA) pilots. This paper describes the development of a research multi-function display (MFD) to support the interaction between pilots and an automated Airport Management Module (AMM). Preliminary results of simulation and flight tests indicate that adding the responsibility of monitoring other traffic for self-separation does not increase pilots subjective workload levels. Pilots preferred using the enhanced MFD to execute flight procedures, reporting improved situation awareness over conventional instrument flight rules (IFR) procedures.

A Multi-Attribute-Utility-Theory Model that Minimizes Interview-Data Requirements: A Consolidation of Space Launch Decisions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-01

satel~ lites on th" .gruunu" U, .U,- orbit affects the priority given to a new launch. Table 3.9 Launch Priorities Level Level Title Description 0.00 No...value of a satellite’s mission(s) relative to the misston(s) of other sate• lites As such the rating given may reflect an endre class of satellites for...Expected Remaining Lifetime 0 Years Assign a number between 0 and I that best describes the utility of a sate; lite ’,th Vh,,V- ,ta .=.... ,. A at these

Comparative SWOT analysis of strategic environmental assessment systems in the Middle East and North Africa region.

PubMed

Rachid, G; El Fadel, M

2013-08-15

This paper presents a SWOT analysis of SEA systems in the Middle East North Africa region through a comparative examination of the status, application and structure of existing systems based on country-specific legal, institutional and procedural frameworks. The analysis is coupled with the multi-attribute decision making method (MADM) within an analytical framework that involves both performance analysis based on predefined evaluation criteria and countries' self-assessment of their SEA system through open-ended surveys. The results show heterogenous status with a general delayed progress characterized by varied levels of weaknesses embedded in the legal and administrative frameworks and poor integration with the decision making process. Capitalizing on available opportunities, the paper highlights measures to enhance the development and enactment of SEA in the region. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Trading Partners for China's Rare Earth Exports Using a Decision Analytic Approach

PubMed Central

He, Chunyan; Lei, Yalin; Ge, Jianping

2014-01-01

Chinese rare earth export policies currently result in accelerating its depletion. Thus adopting an optimal export trade selection strategy is crucial to determining and ultimately identifying the ideal trading partners. This paper introduces a multi-attribute decision-making methodology which is then used to select the optimal trading partner. In the method, an evaluation criteria system is established to assess the seven top trading partners based on three dimensions: political relationships, economic benefits and industrial security. Specifically, a simple additive weighing model derived from an additive utility function is utilized to calculate, rank and select alternatives. Results show that Japan would be the optimal trading partner for Chinese rare earths. The criteria evaluation method of trading partners for China's rare earth exports provides the Chinese government with a tool to enhance rare earth industrial policies. PMID:25051534

Assessment of trading partners for China's rare earth exports using a decision analytic approach.

PubMed

He, Chunyan; Lei, Yalin; Ge, Jianping

2014-01-01

Chinese rare earth export policies currently result in accelerating its depletion. Thus adopting an optimal export trade selection strategy is crucial to determining and ultimately identifying the ideal trading partners. This paper introduces a multi-attribute decision-making methodology which is then used to select the optimal trading partner. In the method, an evaluation criteria system is established to assess the seven top trading partners based on three dimensions: political relationships, economic benefits and industrial security. Specifically, a simple additive weighing model derived from an additive utility function is utilized to calculate, rank and select alternatives. Results show that Japan would be the optimal trading partner for Chinese rare earths. The criteria evaluation method of trading partners for China's rare earth exports provides the Chinese government with a tool to enhance rare earth industrial policies.

A pilot study of distributed knowledge management and clinical decision support in the cloud.

PubMed

Dixon, Brian E; Simonaitis, Linas; Goldberg, Howard S; Paterno, Marilyn D; Schaeffer, Molly; Hongsermeier, Tonya; Wright, Adam; Middleton, Blackford

2013-09-01

Implement and perform pilot testing of web-based clinical decision support services using a novel framework for creating and managing clinical knowledge in a distributed fashion using the cloud. The pilot sought to (1) develop and test connectivity to an external clinical decision support (CDS) service, (2) assess the exchange of data to and knowledge from the external CDS service, and (3) capture lessons to guide expansion to more practice sites and users. The Clinical Decision Support Consortium created a repository of shared CDS knowledge for managing hypertension, diabetes, and coronary artery disease in a community cloud hosted by Partners HealthCare. A limited data set for primary care patients at a separate health system was securely transmitted to a CDS rules engine hosted in the cloud. Preventive care reminders triggered by the limited data set were returned for display to clinician end users for review and display. During a pilot study, we (1) monitored connectivity and system performance, (2) studied the exchange of data and decision support reminders between the two health systems, and (3) captured lessons. During the six month pilot study, there were 1339 patient encounters in which information was successfully exchanged. Preventive care reminders were displayed during 57% of patient visits, most often reminding physicians to monitor blood pressure for hypertensive patients (29%) and order eye exams for patients with diabetes (28%). Lessons learned were grouped into five themes: performance, governance, semantic interoperability, ongoing adjustments, and usability. Remote, asynchronous cloud-based decision support performed reasonably well, although issues concerning governance, semantic interoperability, and usability remain key challenges for successful adoption and use of cloud-based CDS that will require collaboration between biomedical informatics and computer science disciplines. Decision support in the cloud is feasible and may be a reasonable path toward achieving better support of clinical decision-making across the widest range of health care providers. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Effect of Ownship Information and NexRad Resolution on Pilot Decision Making in the Use of a Cockpit Weather Information Display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novacek, Paul F.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Heck, Michael L.; Stokes, Alan F.; Stough, H. Paul, III (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A two-phase experiment was conducted to explore the effects of data-link weather displays upon pilot decision performance. The experiment was conducted with 49 instrument rated pilots who were divided into four groups and placed in a simulator with a realistic flight scenario involving weather containing convective activity. The inflight weather display depicted NEXRAD images, with graphical and textual METARs over a moving map display. The experiment explored the effect of weather information, ownship position symbology and NEXRAD cell size resolution. The phase-two experiment compared two groups using the data-linked weather display with ownship position symbology. These groups were compared to the phase-one group that did not have ownship position symbology. The phase-two pilots were presented with either large NEXRAD cell size (8 km) or small cell size (4 km). Observations noted that the introduction of ownship symbology did not appear to significantly impact the decision making process, however, the introduction of ownship did reduce workload. Additionally, NEXRAD cell size resolution did appear to influence the tactical decision making process.

Nutritional Attributes, Substitutability, Scalability, and Environmental Intensity of an Illustrative Subset of Current and Future Protein Sources for Aquaculture Feeds: Joint Consideration of Potential Synergies and Trade-offs.

PubMed

Pelletier, Nathan; Klinger, Dane H; Sims, Neil A; Yoshioka, Janice-Renee; Kittinger, John N

2018-05-15

Aquaculture is anticipated to play an increasingly important role in global food security because it may represent one of the best opportunities to increase the availability of healthy animal protein in the context of resource and environmental constraints. However, the growth and sustainability of the aquaculture industry faces important bottlenecks with respect to feed resources, which may be derived from diverse sources. Here, using a small but representative subset of potential aquafeed inputs (which we selected to highlight a range of relevant attributes), we review a core suite of considerations that need to be accommodated in concert in order to overcome key bottlenecks to the continued development and expansion of the aquaculture industry. Specifically, we evaluate the nutritional attributes, substitutability, scalability, and resource and environmental intensity of each input. On this basis, we illustrate a range of potential synergies and trade-offs within and across attributes that are characteristic of ingredient types. We posit that the recognition and management of such synergies and trade-offs is imperative to satisfying the multi-objective decision-making associated with sustainable increases in future aquaculture production.

Attention and attribute overlap in preferential choice.

PubMed

Bhatia, Sudeep

2017-07-01

Attributes that are common, or overlapping, across alternatives in two-alternative forced preferential choice tasks are often non-diagnostic. In many settings, attending to and evaluating these attributes does not help the decision maker determine which of the available alternatives is the most desirable. For this reason, many existing behavioural theories propose that decision makers ignore common attributes while deliberating. Across six experiments, we find that decision makers do direct their attention selectively and ignore attributes that are not present in or associated with either of the available alternatives. However, they are as likely to attend to common attributes as they are to attend to attributes that are unique to a single alternative. These results suggest the need for novel theories of attention in preferential choice.

Alternative Perspectives on Risk: Individual Differences in Problem Structuring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Fischer, Ute; Connors, Mary M. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Team decision making involves contributions of multiple players toward a common goal. While much has been written about the importance of developing shared mental models in order for teams to work together effectively, little has been done to determine the value of alternative perspectives on problem solving and decision making. Early studies of expertise contrasted experts with novices and noted that the two groups differ in the way they structure problems and in their selection of information as salient. Little attention has been given to differences among experts who differ in their specializations. A series of experiments was conducted to determine: (1) what dimensions of flight-related problem situations pilots judge to be most important when making flight-relevant decisions; and (2) whether pilots in different crew positions differ in the way they interpret problems relating to flight decisions. A sorting task was used to identify underlying dimensions judged as salient to individual pilots. Captains, first officers, and flight engineers from two major carriers participated in the study. Twenty-two flight scenarios were developed based on ASRS reports. Pilots were required to make judgments about how they would respond in each case and to sort the scenarios on the basis of similarity of decision factors. They were also asked to provide a verbal label that described each of their sorted categories. A second study required a different group of pilots (also captains, first officers and flight engineers) to sort on predetermined bases.

Pilot study for supervised target detection applied to spatially registered multiparametric MRI in order to non-invasively score prostate cancer.

PubMed

Mayer, Rulon; Simone, Charles B; Skinner, William; Turkbey, Baris; Choykey, Peter

2018-03-01

Gleason Score (GS) is a validated predictor of prostate cancer (PCa) disease progression and outcomes. GS from invasive needle biopsies suffers from significant inter-observer variability and possible sampling error, leading to underestimating disease severity ("underscoring") and can result in possible complications. A robust non-invasive image-based approach is, therefore, needed. Use spatially registered multi-parametric MRI (MP-MRI), signatures, and supervised target detection algorithms (STDA) to non-invasively GS PCa at the voxel level. This study retrospectively analyzed 26 MP-MRI from The Cancer Imaging Archive. The MP-MRI (T2, Diffusion Weighted, Dynamic Contrast Enhanced) were spatially registered to each other, combined into stacks, and stitched together to form hypercubes. Multi-parametric (or multi-spectral) signatures derived from a training set of registered MP-MRI were transformed using statistics-based Whitening-Dewhitening (WD). Transformed signatures were inserted into STDA (having conical decision surfaces) applied to registered MP-MRI determined the tumor GS. The MRI-derived GS was quantitatively compared to the pathologist's assessment of the histology of sectioned whole mount prostates from patients who underwent radical prostatectomy. In addition, a meta-analysis of 17 studies of needle biopsy determined GS with confusion matrices and was compared to the MRI-determined GS. STDA and histology determined GS are highly correlated (R = 0.86, p < 0.02). STDA more accurately determined GS and reduced GS underscoring of PCa relative to needle biopsy as summarized by meta-analysis (p < 0.05). This pilot study found registered MP-MRI, STDA, and WD transforms of signatures shows promise in non-invasively GS PCa and reducing underscoring with high spatial resolution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Shared Information on Pilot/Controller And Controller/Controller Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansman, R. John

1999-01-01

In order to respond to the increasing demand on limited airspace system resources, a number of applications of information technology have been proposed, or are under investigation, to improve the efficiency, capacity and reliability of ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) operations. Much of the attention in advanced ATM technology has focused on advanced automation systems or decision aiding systems to improve the performance of individual Pilots or Controllers. However, the most significant overall potential for information technology appears to he in increasing the shared information between human agents such as Pilots, Controllers or between interacting Controllers or traffic flow managers. Examples of proposed shared information systems in the US include; Controller Pilot Databank Communication (CPDLC), Traffic Management Advisor (TMA); Automatic Dependent Surveillance (ADS); Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) and NAS Level Common Information Exchange. Air Traffic Management is fundamentally a human centered process consisting of the negotiation, execution and monitoring of contracts between human agents for the allocation of limited airspace, runway and airport surface resources. The decision processes within ATM tend to be Semistructured. Many of the routine elements in ATM decision making on the part of the Controllers or Pilots are well Structured and can be represented by well defined rules or procedures. However in disrupted conditions, the ATM decision processes are often Unstructured and cannot be reduced to a set of discrete rules. As a consequence, the ability to automate ATM processes will be limited and ATM will continue to be a human centric process where the responsibility and the authority for the negotiation will continue to rest with human Controllers and Pilots. The use of information technology to support the human decision process will therefore be an important aspect of ATM modernization. The premise of many of the proposed shared information systems is that the performance of ATM operations will improve with an increase in Shared Situation Awareness between agents (Pilots, Controller, Dispatchers). This will allow better informed control decisions and an improved ability to negotiate between agents. A common information basis may reduce communication load and may increase the level of collaboration in the decision process. In general, information sharing is expected to have advantages for all agents within the system. However there are important questions which remain to be,addressed. For example: What shared information is most important for developing effective Shared Situation Awareness? Are there issues of information saturation? Does information parity create ambiguity in control authority? Will information sharing induce undesirable or unstable gaming behavior between agents? This paper will explore the effect of current and proposed information sharing between different ATM agents. The paper will primarily concentrate on bilateral tactical interactions between specific agents (Pilot/Controller; Controller/Controller; Pilot/Dispatcher; Controller/Dispatcher) however it will also briefly discuss multilateral interaction and more strategic interactions.

Attributes Affecting Computer-Aided Decision Making--A Literature Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moldafsky, Neil I; Kwon, Ik-Whan

1994-01-01

Reviews current literature about personal, demographic, situational, and cognitive attributes that affect computer-aided decision making. The effectiveness of computer-aided decision making is explored in relation to decision quality, effectiveness, and confidence. Studies of the effects of age, anxiety, cognitive type, attitude, gender, and prior…

Potential barriers to the application of multi-factor portfolio analysis in public hospitals: evidence from a pilot study in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Pavlova, Milena; Tsiachristas, Apostolos; Vermaeten, Gerhard; Groot, Wim

2009-01-01

Portfolio analysis is a business management tool that can assist health care managers to develop new organizational strategies. The application of portfolio analysis to US hospital settings has been frequently reported. In Europe however, the application of this technique has received little attention, especially concerning public hospitals. Therefore, this paper examines the peculiarities of portfolio analysis and its applicability to the strategic management of European public hospitals. The analysis is based on a pilot application of a multi-factor portfolio analysis in a Dutch university hospital. The nature of portfolio analysis and the steps in a multi-factor portfolio analysis are reviewed along with the characteristics of the research setting. Based on these data, a multi-factor portfolio model is developed and operationalized. The portfolio model is applied in a pilot investigation to analyze the market attractiveness and hospital strengths with regard to the provision of three orthopedic services: knee surgery, hip surgery, and arthroscopy. The pilot portfolio analysis is discussed to draw conclusions about potential barriers to the overall adoption of portfolio analysis in the management of a public hospital. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pilot/Controller Coordinated Decision Making in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bearman, Chris; Miller, Ronald c.; Orasanu, Judith M.

2011-01-01

Introduction: NextGen technologies promise to provide considerable benefits in terms of enhancing operations and improving safety. However, there needs to be a thorough human factors evaluation of the way these systems will change the way in which pilot and controllers share information. The likely impact of these new technologies on pilot/controller coordinated decision making is considered in this paper using the "operational, informational and evaluative disconnect" framework. Method: Five participant focus groups were held. Participants were four experts in human factors, between x and x research students and a technical expert. The participant focus group evaluated five key NextGen technologies to identify issues that made different disconnects more or less likely. Results: Issues that were identified were: Decision Making will not necessarily improve because pilots and controllers possess the same information; Having a common information source does not mean pilots and controllers are looking at the same information; High levels of automation may lead to disconnects between the technology and pilots/controllers; Common information sources may become the definitive source for information; Overconfidence in the automation may lead to situations where appropriate breakdowns are not initiated. Discussion: The issues that were identified lead to recommendations that need to be considered in the development of NextGen technologies. The current state of development of these technologies provides a good opportunity to utilize recommendations at an early stage so that NextGen technologies do not lead to difficulties in resolving breakdowns in coordinated decision making.

Decision Making and Priority Setting: The Evolving Path Towards Universal Health Coverage.

PubMed

Paolucci, Francesco; Redekop, Ken; Fouda, Ayman; Fiorentini, Gianluca

2017-12-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is widely viewed as an essential component in good universal health coverage (UHC) decision-making in any country. Various HTA tools and metrics have been developed and refined over the years, including systematic literature reviews (Cochrane), economic modelling, and cost-effectiveness ratios and acceptability curves. However, while the cost-effectiveness ratio is faithfully reported in most full economic evaluations, it is viewed by many as an insufficient basis for reimbursement decisions. Emotional debates about the reimbursement of cancer drugs, orphan drugs, and end-of-life treatments have revealed fundamental disagreements about what should and should not be considered in reimbursement decisions. Part of this disagreement seems related to the equity-efficiency tradeoff, which reflects fundamental differences in priorities. All in all, it is clear that countries aiming to improve UHC policies will have to go beyond the capacity building needed to utilize the available HTA toolbox. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a more comprehensive tool for reimbursement decisions where different weights of different factors/attributes can give policymakers important insights to consider. Sooner or later, every country will have to develop their own way to carefully combine the results of those tools with their own priorities. In the end, all policymaking is based on a mix of facts and values.

Implications of adopting a biodiversity-based vulnerability index versus a shoreline environmental sensitivity index on management and policy planning along coastal areas.

PubMed

Harik, G; Alameddine, I; Maroun, R; Rachid, G; Bruschi, D; Astiaso Garcia, D; El-Fadel, M

2017-02-01

In this study, a multi-criteria index was developed to assess anthropogenic stressors along the Mediterranean coastline. The index aimed at geo-locating pollution hotspots for informed decision making related to coastal zone management. The index was integrated in a Geographical Information System based geodatabase implemented at several pilot areas along the Northern (Italy and France), Eastern (Lebanon), and Southern (Tunisia) Mediterranean coastlines. The generated stressor maps were coupled with a biodiversity richness index and an environmental sensitivity index to produce vulnerability maps that can form the basis for prioritizing management and mitigation interventions towards the identification of pollution hotspots and the promotion of sustainable coastal zone management. The results identified significant differences between the two assessment methods, which can bias prioritization in decision making and policy planning depending on stakeholders' interests. The discrepancies emphasize the need for transparency and understanding of the underlying foundations behind vulnerability indices and mapping development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction to cognitive processes of expert pilots.

PubMed

Adams, R J; Ericsson, A E

2000-10-01

This report addresses the historical problem that a very high percentage of accidents have been classified as involving "pilot error." Through extensive research since 1977, the Federal Aviation Administration determined that the predominant underlying cause of these types of accidents involved decisional problems or cognitive information processing. To attack these problems, Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) training materials were developed and tested for ten years. Since the publication of the ADM training manuals in 1987, significant reductions in human performance error (HPE) accidents have been documented both in the U.S. and world wide. However, shortcomings have been observed in the use of these materials for recurrency training and in their relevance to more experienced pilots. The following discussion defines the differences between expert and novice decision makers from a cognitive information processing perspective, correlates the development of expert pilot cognitive processes with training and experience, and reviews accident scenarios which exemplify those processes. This introductory material is a necessary prerequisite to an understanding of how to formulate expert pilot decision making training innovations; and, to continue the record of improved safety through ADM training.

Important and Critical Psychological Attributes of USAF MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper Pilots According to Subject Matter Experts

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

and skills required for military-specific RPAs such as the Pioneer (e.g., Ref 20,21) and Global Hawk (Nagy JE, Muse K , Eaton G , Phillips A, U.S. Air...Analyses, Predator Pilot Front End Analysis (FEA) Report, SURVIAC-TR-06-203, Feb 2006 ; available through the Defense Technical Information Center to U.S...assessing the critical attributes (e.g., subscales of verbal and performance intelligence quotients ) prior to entering the training pipeline. Aeromedical

The necessary burden of involving stakeholders in agent-based modelling for education and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bommel, P.; Bautista Solís, P.; Leclerc, G.

2016-12-01

We implemented a participatory process with water stakeholders for improving resilience to drought at watershed scale, and for reducing water pollution disputes in drought prone Northwestern Costa Rica. The purpose is to facilitate co-management in a rural watershed impacted by recurrent droughts related to ENSO. The process involved designing "ContaMiCuenca", a hybrid agent-based model where users can specify the decisions of their agents. We followed a Companion Modeling approach (www.commod.org) and organized 10 workshops that included research techniques such as participatory diagnostics, actor-resources-interaction and UML diagrams, multi-agents model design, and interactive simulation sessions. We collectively assessed the main water issues in the watershed, prioritized their importance, defined the objectives of the process, and pilot-tested ContaMiCuenca for environmental education with adults and children. Simulation sessions resulted in debates about the need to improve the model accuracy, arguably more relevant for decision-making. This helped identify sensible knowledge gaps in the groundwater pollution and aquifer dynamics that need to be addressed in order to improve our collective learning. Significant mismatches among participants expectations, objectives, and agendas considerably slowed down the participatory process. The main issue may originate in participants expecting technical solutions from a positivist science, as constantly promoted in the region by dole-out initiatives, which is incompatible with the constructivist stance of participatory modellers. This requires much closer interaction of community members with modellers, which may be hard to attain in the current research practice and institutional context. Nevertheless, overcoming these constraints is necessary for a true involvement of water stakeholders to achieve community-based decisions that facilitate integrated water management. Our findings provide significant guidance for improving the trans-generational engagement of stakeholders in participatory modeling processes in a context of limited technical skills and information, research expectative mismatches, and poor multi-stakeholder interaction for decision-making.

Towards an internal model in pilot training.

PubMed

Braune, R J; Trollip, S R

1982-10-01

Optimal decision making requires an information seeking behavior which reflects the comprehension of the overall system dynamics. Research in the area of human monitors in man-machine systems supports the notion of an internal model with built-in expectancies. It is doubtful that the current approach to pilot training helps develop this internal model in the most efficient way. But this is crucial since the role of the pilot is changing to a systems' manager and decision maker. An extension of the behavioral framework of pilot training might help to prepare the pilot better for the increasingly complex flight environment. This extension is based on the theoretical model of schema theory, which evolved out of psychological research. The technological advances in aircraft simulators and in-flight performance measurement devices allow investigation of the still-unresolved issues.

Patient preferences for osteoporosis in Spain: a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Darbà, J; Restovic, G; Kaskens, L; Balbona, M A; Carbonell, A; Cavero, P; Jordana, M; Prieto, C; Molina, A; Padró, I

2011-06-01

In Spain, various treatments are available to prevent osteoporotic fractures. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was used to investigate the importance of different treatment aspects and its influence on patients' preferences. All attributes included as type and place of drug administration as well as costs showed to be significant predictors of choice. Spanish osteoporosis patients have well-defined preferences and accept trade-offs among attributes. This study was designed to identify patient preferences for different aspects of osteoporosis treatments in Spain. Main attributes of severe osteoporosis treatments were determined by literature review and consultations with nurses. The discrete choice experiment included three attributes: type of drug administration, place of administration, plus a cost attribute in order to estimate willingness to pay for improvements in attribute levels. A pilot study with 50 patients was performed to identify the areas of misunderstanding. One hundred sixty-six patients with a diagnosis of osteoporosis and severe osteoporosis were presented with pairs of hypothetical treatment profiles with different type of administration levels, places of administration and costs. Questions to collect socio-demographic and disease-related treatment data were also included. Data were analysed using a random effects probit model. All attributes had the expected polarity and were significant predictors of choice. Patients were willing to pay 183 euro/month to have a subcutaneous injection once per day rather than an intravenous injection once per year. Patients with osteoporosis were willing to pay 121 euro/month to have medical support when administering the drug treatment at home rather than being admitted several hours to a hospital for drug administration. Spanish osteoporosis patients have well-defined preferences among treatment attributes and are willing to accept trade-offs among attributes. Participants indicated that they are willing to accept self medication with medical support rather than being hospitalised for several hours. The perspective of the patients should be taken into account when making treatment decisions.

Involving women in personalised decision-making on mode of delivery after caesarean section: the development and pilot testing of a patient decision aid.

PubMed

Schoorel, E N C; Vankan, E; Scheepers, H C J; Augustijn, B C C; Dirksen, C D; de Koning, M; van Kuijk, S M J; Kwee, A; Melman, S; Nijhuis, J G; Aardenburg, R; de Boer, K; Hasaart, T H M; Mol, B W J; Nieuwenhuijze, M; van Pampus, M G; van Roosmalen, J; Roumen, F J M E; de Vries, R; Wouters, M G A J; van der Weijden, T; Hermens, R P M G

2014-01-01

To develop a patient decision aid (PtDA) for mode of delivery after caesarean section that integrates personalised prediction of vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) with the elicitation of patient preferences and evidence-based information. A PtDA was developed and pilot tested using the International Patients Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) criteria. Obstetric health care in the Netherlands. A multidisciplinary steering group, an expert panel, and 25 future users of the PtDA, i.e. women with a previous caesarean section. The development consisted of a construction phase (definition of scope and purpose, and selection of content, framework, and format) and a pilot testing phase by interview. The process was supervised by a multidisciplinary steering group. Usability, clarity, and relevance. The construction phase resulted in a booklet including unbiased balanced information on mode of birth after caesarean section, a preference elicitation exercise, and tailored risk information, including a prediction model for successful VBAC. During pilot testing, visualisation of risks and clarity formed the main basis for revisions. Pilot testing showed the availability of tailored structured information to be the main factor involving women in decision-making. The PtDA meets 39 out of 50 IPDAS criteria (78%): 23 out of 23 criteria for content (100%) and 16 out of 20 criteria for the development process (80%). Criteria for effectiveness (n = 7) were not evaluated. An evidence-based PtDA was developed, with the probability of successful VBAC and the availability of structured information as key items. It is likely that the PtDA enhances the quality of decision-making on mode of birth after caesarean section. © 2013 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Blame Attribution as a Moderator of Perceptions of Sexual Orientation-Based Hate Crimes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cramer, Robert J.; Chandler, Joseph F.; Wakeman, Emily E.

2010-01-01

Blame attribution is a valuable mechanism explaining decision making. However, present literature mainly employs blame attribution as a dependent variable. The shortcoming of this fact is that blame attribution offers a potentially valuable explanatory mechanism for decision making. The authors designed two studies to investigate blame attribution…

Memory-based decision-making with heuristics: evidence for a controlled activation of memory representations.

PubMed

Khader, Patrick H; Pachur, Thorsten; Meier, Stefanie; Bien, Siegfried; Jost, Kerstin; Rösler, Frank

2011-11-01

Many of our daily decisions are memory based, that is, the attribute information about the decision alternatives has to be recalled. Behavioral studies suggest that for such decisions we often use simple strategies (heuristics) that rely on controlled and limited information search. It is assumed that these heuristics simplify decision-making by activating long-term memory representations of only those attributes that are necessary for the decision. However, from behavioral studies alone, it is unclear whether using heuristics is indeed associated with limited memory search. The present study tested this assumption by monitoring the activation of specific long-term-memory representations with fMRI while participants made memory-based decisions using the "take-the-best" heuristic. For different decision trials, different numbers and types of information had to be retrieved and processed. The attributes consisted of visual information known to be represented in different parts of the posterior cortex. We found that the amount of information required for a decision was mirrored by a parametric activation of the dorsolateral PFC. Such a parametric pattern was also observed in all posterior areas, suggesting that activation was not limited to those attributes required for a decision. However, the posterior increases were systematically modulated by the relative importance of the information for making a decision. These findings suggest that memory-based decision-making is mediated by the dorsolateral PFC, which selectively controls posterior storage areas. In addition, the systematic modulations of the posterior activations indicate a selective boosting of activation of decision-relevant attributes.

Automation Bias: Decision Making and Performance in High-Tech Cockpits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosier, Kathleen L.; Skitka, Linda J.; Heers, Susan; Burdick, Mark; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Automated aids and decision support tools are rapidly becoming indispensible tools in high-technology cockpits, and are assuming increasing control of "cognitive" flight tasks, such as calculating fuel-efficient routes, navigating, or detecting and diagnosing system malfunctions and abnormalities. This study was designed to investigate "automation bias," a recently documented factor in the use of automated aids and decision support systems. The term refers to omission and commission errors resulting from the use of automated cues as a heuristic replacement for vigilant information seeking and processing. Glass-cockpit pilots flew flight scenarios involving automation "events," or opportunities for automation-related omission and commission errors. Pilots who perceived themselves as "accountable" for their performance and strategies of interaction with the automation were more likely to double-check automated functioning against other cues, and less likely to commit errors. Pilots were also likely to erroneously "remember" the presence of expected cues when describing their decision-making processes.

Taking risks and taking advice: The role of experience in airline pilot diversions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Marvin S.

1993-01-01

The research asks how pilots make diversion decisions, what factors determine whether they are make well or poorly, and how they may be improved. The results support the view that experienced decision makers may solve problems in a way that is qualitatively different from the approaches of less experienced decision makers. The results also support a concept of expertise that goes beyond a stock of specialized recognitional templates, to include domain-specific methods for processing information. Such metacognitive skills evolve through long experience. They may enhance both the accuracy and the efficiency of decision processes.

Workshop on Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM). Volume 1. Executive Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-08-01

expert and novice pilots when a real decision was required. Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM), Crew Resource Management (CRM), Advanced Qualification Program (AQP), Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA), Expert Decision Making (EDM)

Factors Influencing Students' Decisions about Post-Year 10 Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beswick, Kim; Hay, Ian; Watson, Jane; Allen, Jeanne; Cranston, Neil

2012-01-01

This paper reports pilot data from an instrument devised as part of a large ARC funded project that aims, among other things, to investigate factors that influence the decisions of students in rural and/or disadvantaged areas to continue their schooling beyond Year 10. One section of the pilot student questionnaire comprised 42 items designed to…

Multi-view Decision Making (MVDM) Workshop

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

reflect the realities of system-of-systems development, acquisition, fielding and support: multi-view decision making (MVDM). MVDM addresses the...including mission risk, interoperable acquisition, and operational security and survivability. Hence, a multi-view approach to decision making is

Reflections on a vision for integrated research and monitoring after 15 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murdoch, Peter S.; McHale, Michael; Baron, Jill S.

2014-01-01

In May of 1998, Owen Bricker and his co-author Michael Ruggiero introduced a conceptual design for integrating the Nation’s environmental research and monitoring programs. The Framework for Integrated Monitoring and Related Research was an organizing strategy for relating data collected by various programs, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and by multiple science disciplines to solve complex ecological issues that individual research or monitoring programs were not designed to address. The concept nested existing intensive monitoring and research stations within national and regional surveys, remotely sensed data, and inventories to produce a collaborative program for multi-scale, multi-network integrated environmental monitoring and research. Analyses of gaps in data needed for specific issues would drive decisions on network improvements or enhancements. Data contributions to the Framework from existing networks would help indicate critical research and monitoring programs to protect during budget reductions. Significant progress has been made since 1998 on refining the Framework strategy. Methods and models for projecting scientific information across spatial and temporal scales have been improved, and a few regional pilots of multi-scale data-integration concepts have been attempted. The links between science and decision-making are also slowly improving and being incorporated into science practice. Experiments with the Framework strategy since 1998 have revealed the foundational elements essential to its successful implementation, such as defining core measurements, establishing standards of data collection and management, integrating research and long-term monitoring, and describing baseline ecological conditions. They have also shown us the remaining challenges to establishing the Framework concept: protecting and enhancing critical long-term monitoring, filling gaps in measurement methods, improving science for decision support, and integrating the disparate integrated science efforts now underway. In the 15 years since the Bricker and Ruggiero (Ecol Appl 8(2):326–329, 1998) paper challenged us with a new paradigm for bringing sound and comprehensive science to environmental decisions, the scientific community can take pride in the progress that has been made, while also taking stock of the challenges ahead for completing the Framework vision.

The Career Cost: Does It Pay for a Military Pilot to Leave the Service for the Airlines?

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

significant decreases in retention can be attributed to perceived pay disparity between the airlines and military. The promise of high paying jobs ...experiencing a pilot retention problem that is getting worse. The government spends millions of dollars training pilots in the most advanced aircraft in...PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK v ABSTRACT The military is experiencing a pilot retention problem that is getting worse. The government spends

The role of contraceptive attributes in women's contraceptive decision making.

PubMed

Madden, Tessa; Secura, Gina M; Nease, Robert F; Politi, Mary C; Peipert, Jeffrey F

2015-07-01

Contraceptive methods have differing attributes. Women's preferences for these attributes may influence contraceptive decision making. Our objective was to identify women's contraceptive preferences among women initiating a new contraceptive method. We conducted a cross-sectional, self-administered survey of women's contraceptive preferences at the time of enrollment into the Contraceptive CHOICE Project. Participants were asked to rank the importance of 15 contraceptive attributes on a 3-point scale (1 = not at all important, 2 = somewhat important, and 3 = very important) and then to rank the 3 attributes that were the most important when choosing a contraceptive method. The survey also contained questions about prior contraceptive experience and barriers to contraceptive use. Information about demographic and reproductive characteristics was collected through the CHOICE Project baseline survey. There were 2590 women who completed the survey. Our sample was racially and socioeconomically diverse. Method attributes with the highest importance score (mean score [SD]) were effectiveness (2.97 [0.18]), safety (2.96 [0.22]), affordability (2.61 [0.61]), whether the method is long lasting (2.58 [0.61]), and whether the method is "forgettable" (2.54 [0.66]). The attributes most likely to be ranked by respondents among the top 3 attributes included effectiveness (84.2%), safety (67.8%), and side effects of the method (44.6%). Multiple contraceptive attributes influence decision making and no single attribute drives most women's decisions. Tailoring communication and helping women make complex tradeoffs between attributes can better support their contraceptive decisions and may assist them in making value-consistent choices. This process could improve continuation and satisfaction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of decision maker preferences for equity/efficiency attributes in reimbursement decisions in three European countries.

PubMed

Baji, Petra; García-Goñi, Manuel; Gulácsi, László; Mentzakis, Emmanouil; Paolucci, Francesco

2016-09-01

In addition to cost-effectiveness, national guidelines often include other factors in reimbursement decisions. However, weights attached to these are rarely quantified, thus decisions can depend strongly on decision-maker preferences. To explore the preferences of policymakers and healthcare professionals involved in the decision-making process for different efficiency and equity attributes of interventions and to analyse cross-country differences. Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) were carried out in Austria, Hungary, and Norway with policymakers and other professionals working in the health industry (N = 153 respondents). Interventions were described in terms of different efficiency and equity attributes (severity of disease, target age of the population and willingness to subsidise others, potential number of beneficiaries, individual health benefit, and cost-effectiveness). Parameter estimates from the DCE were used to calculate the probability of choosing a healthcare intervention with different characteristics, and to rank different equity and efficiency attributes according to their importance. In all three countries, cost-effectiveness, individual health benefit and severity of the disease were significant and equally important determinants of decisions. All countries show preferences for interventions targeting young and middle aged populations compared to those targeting populations over 60. However, decision-makers in Austria and Hungary show preferences more oriented to efficiency than equity, while those in Norway show equal preferences for equity and efficiency attributes. We find that factors other than cost-effectiveness seem to play an equally important role in decision-making. We also find evidence of cross-country differences in the weight of efficiency and equity attributes.

Performance evaluation of restaurant food waste and biowaste to biogas pilot projects in China and implications for national policy.

PubMed

De Clercq, Djavan; Wen, Zongguo; Fan, Fei

2017-03-15

The objective of this research was to conduct a performance evaluation of three food waste/biowaste-to-biogas pilot projects across 7 scenarios in China based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology. The projects ranked included a food waste-biogas project in Beijing, a food waste-biogas project in Suzhou and a co-digestion project producing biomethane in Hainan. The projects were ranked from best to worst based on technical, economic and environmental criteria under the MCDA framework. The results demonstrated that some projects are encountering operational problems. Based on these findings, six national policy recommendations were provided: (1) shift away from capital investment subsidies to performance-based subsidies; (2) re-design feed in tariffs; (3) promote bio-methane and project clustering; (4) improve collection efficiency by incentivizing FW producers to direct waste to biogas projects; (5) incentivize biogas projects to produce multiple outputs; (6) incentivize food waste-based projects to co-digest food waste with other substrates for higher gas output. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact Analysis of Psychological Reliability of Population Pilot Study for Selection of Particular Reliable Multi-Choice Item Test in Foreign Language Research Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fazeli, Seyed Hossein

2010-01-01

The purpose of research described in the current study is the psychological reliability, its importance, application, and more to investigate on the impact analysis of psychological reliability of population pilot study for selection of particular reliable multi-choice item test in foreign language research work. The population for subject…

Flight Crew Training: Multi-Crew Pilot License Training versus Traditional Training and Its Relationship with Job Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cushing, Thomas S.

2013-01-01

In 2006, the International Civil Aviation Organization promulgated requirements for a Multi-Crew Pilot License for First Officers, in which the candidate attends approximately two years of ground school and trains as part of a two-person crew in a simulator of a Boeing 737 or an Airbus 320 airliner. In the traditional method, a candidate qualifies…

Dual conception of risk in the Iowa Gambling Task: effects of sleep deprivation and test-retest gap.

PubMed

Singh, Varsha

2013-01-01

Risk in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is often understood in terms of intertemporal choices, i.e., preference for immediate outcomes in favor of delayed outcomes is considered risky decision making. According to behavioral economics, healthy decision makers are expected to refrain from choosing the short-sighted immediate gain because, over time (10 trials of the IGT), the immediate gains result in a long term loss (net loss). Instead decision makers are expected to maximize their gains by choosing options that, over time (10 trials), result in delayed or long term gains (net gain). However, task choices are sometimes made on the basis of the frequency of reward and punishment such that frequent rewards/infrequent punishments are favored over infrequent rewards/frequent punishments. The presence of these two attributes (intertemporality and frequency of reward) in IGT decision making may correspond to the emotion-cognition dichotomy and reflect a dual conception of risk. Decision making on the basis of the two attributes was tested under two conditions: delay in retest and sleep deprivation. An interaction between sleep deprivation and time delay was expected to attenuate the difference between the two attributes. Participants were 40 male university students. Analysis of the effects of IGT attribute type (intertemporal vs. frequency of reinforcement), sleep deprivation (sleep deprivation vs. no sleep deprivation), and test-retest gap (short vs. long delay) showed a significant within-subjects effect of IGT attribute type thus confirming the difference between the two attributes. Sleep deprivation had no effect on the attributes, but test-retest gap and the three-way interaction between attribute type, test-retest gap, and sleep deprivation were significantly different. Post-hoc tests revealed that sleep deprivation and short test-retest gap attenuated the difference between the two attributes. Furthermore, the results showed an expected trend of increase in intertemporal decision making at retest suggesting that intertemporal decision making benefited from repeated task exposure. The present findings add to understanding of the emotion-cognition dichotomy. Further, they show an important time-dependent effect of a universally experienced constraint (sleep deprivation) on decision making. It is concluded that risky decision making in the IGT is contingent on the attribute under consideration and is affected by factors such as time elapsed and constraint experienced before the retest.

Development of a First-of-a-Kind Deterministic Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cetiner, Sacit M; Kisner, Roger A; Muhlheim, Michael David

2015-07-01

Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or nomore » human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The integration of deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses (i.e., neutronics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulics) and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermal-hydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies.« less

Medically disqualified airline pilots in calendar years 1987 and 1988.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-06-01

This study presents comprehensive data reflecting pertinent denial rates regarding the medical and general attributes of those airline pilots denied medical certification in calendar years 1987 and 1988. The overall annual denial rate of this group i...

Urban photogrammetric data base for multi-purpose cadastral-based information systems: the Riyadh city case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-garni, Abdullah M.

Urban information systems are economic resources that can benefit decision makers in the planning, development, and management of urban projects and resources. In this research, a conceptual model-based prototype Urban Geographic Information System (UGIS) is developed. The base maps used in developing the system and acquiring visual attributes are obtained from aerial photographs. The system is a multi-purpose parcel-based one that can serve many urban applications such as public utilities, health centres, schools, population estimation, road engineering and maintenance, and many others. A modern region in the capital city of Saudi Arabia is used for the study. The developed model is operational for one urban application (population estimation) and is tested for that particular application. The results showed that the system has a satisfactory accuracy and that it may well be promising for other similar urban applications in countries with similar demographic and social characteristics.

Evaluating the Role of Attention in the Context of Unconscious Thought Theory: Differential Impact of Attentional Scope and Load on Preference and Memory

PubMed Central

Srinivasan, Narayanan; Mukherjee, Sumitava; Mishra, Maruti V.; Kesarwani, Smriti

2013-01-01

Attention is a key process used to conceptualize and define modes of thought, but we lack information about the role of specific attentional processes on preferential choice and memory in multi-attribute decision making. In this study, we examine the role of attention based on two dimensions, attentional scope and load on choice preference strength and memory using a paradigm that arguably elicits unconscious thought. Scope of attention was manipulated by using global or local processing during distraction (Experiment 1) and before the information-encoding stage (Experiment 2). Load was manipulated by using the n-back task in Experiment 1. Results from Experiment 1 show that global processing or distributed attention during distraction results in stronger preference irrespective of load but better memory only at low cognitive load. Task difficulty or load did not have any effect on preference or memory. In Experiment 2, distributed attention before attribute encoding facilitated only memory but did not influence preference. Results show that attentional processes at different stages of processing like distraction and information-encoding influence decision making processes. Scope of attention not only influences preference and memory but the manner in which attentional scope influences them depends on both load and stage of information processing. The results indicate the important role of attention in processes critical for decision making and calls for a re-evaluation of the unconscious thought theory (UTT) and the need for reconceptualizing the role of attention. PMID:23382726

Evaluating the role of attention in the context of unconscious thought theory: differential impact of attentional scope and load on preference and memory.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Narayanan; Mukherjee, Sumitava; Mishra, Maruti V; Kesarwani, Smriti

2013-01-01

Attention is a key process used to conceptualize and define modes of thought, but we lack information about the role of specific attentional processes on preferential choice and memory in multi-attribute decision making. In this study, we examine the role of attention based on two dimensions, attentional scope and load on choice preference strength and memory using a paradigm that arguably elicits unconscious thought. Scope of attention was manipulated by using global or local processing during distraction (Experiment 1) and before the information-encoding stage (Experiment 2). Load was manipulated by using the n-back task in Experiment 1. Results from Experiment 1 show that global processing or distributed attention during distraction results in stronger preference irrespective of load but better memory only at low cognitive load. Task difficulty or load did not have any effect on preference or memory. In Experiment 2, distributed attention before attribute encoding facilitated only memory but did not influence preference. Results show that attentional processes at different stages of processing like distraction and information-encoding influence decision making processes. Scope of attention not only influences preference and memory but the manner in which attentional scope influences them depends on both load and stage of information processing. The results indicate the important role of attention in processes critical for decision making and calls for a re-evaluation of the unconscious thought theory (UTT) and the need for reconceptualizing the role of attention.

vTrain: a novel curriculum for patient surge training in a multi-user virtual environment (MUVE).

PubMed

Greci, Laura S; Ramloll, Rameshsharma; Hurst, Samantha; Garman, Karen; Beedasy, Jaishree; Pieper, Eric B; Huang, Ricky; Higginbotham, Erin; Agha, Zia

2013-06-01

During a pandemic influenza, emergency departments will be overwhelmed with a large influx of patients seeking care. Although all hospitals should have a written plan for dealing with this surge of health care utilization, most hospitals struggle with ways to educate the staff and practice for potentially catastrophic events. Hypothesis/Problem To better prepare hospital staff for a patient surge, a novel educational curriculum was developed utilizing an emergency department for a patient surge functional drill. A multidisciplinary team of medical educators, evaluators, emergency preparedness experts, and technology specialists developed a curriculum to: (1) train novice users to function in their job class in a multi-user virtual environment (MUVE); (2) obtain appropriate pre-drill disaster preparedness training; (3) perform functional team exercises in a MUVE; and (4) reflect on their performance after the drill. A total of 14 students participated in one of two iterations of the pilot training program; seven nurses completed the emergency department triage course, and seven hospital administrators completed the Command Post (CP) course. All participants reported positive experiences in written course evaluations and structured verbal debriefings, and self-reported increase in disaster preparedness knowledge. Students also reported improved team communication, planning, team decision making, and the ability to visualize and reflect on their performance. Data from this pilot program suggest that the immersive, virtual teaching method is well suited to team-based, reflective practice and learning of disaster management skills.

Tools for the trade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gillman, Wallace M.

1990-01-01

A brief review is given of daily operations in the airline business, with emphasis on the decisions made by pilots and the information used to make those decisions. Various wind shears are discussed as they affect daily operations. The discussion of tools focuses on airborne reactive and predictive systems. The escape maneuver used to fly out of a severe windshear is from a pilot's point of view.

Development and Validation of the Controller Acceptance Rating Scale (CARS): Results of Empirical Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Katharine K.; Kerns, Karol; Bone, Randall

2001-01-01

The measurement of operational acceptability is important for the development, implementation, and evolution of air traffic management decision support tools. The Controller Acceptance Rating Scale was developed at NASA Ames Research Center for the development and evaluation of the Passive Final Approach Spacing Tool. CARS was modeled after a well-known pilot evaluation rating instrument, the Cooper-Harper Scale, and has since been used in the evaluation of the User Request Evaluation Tool, developed by MITRE's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development. In this paper, we provide a discussion of the development of CARS and an analysis of the empirical data collected with CARS to examine construct validity. Results of intraclass correlations indicated statistically significant reliability for the CARS. From the subjective workload data that were collected in conjunction with the CARS, it appears that the expected set of workload attributes was correlated with the CARS. As expected, the analysis also showed that CARS was a sensitive indicator of the impact of decision support tools on controller operations. Suggestions for future CARS development and its improvement are also provided.

Absolute order-of-magnitude reasoning applied to a social multi-criteria evaluation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afsordegan, A.; Sánchez, M.; Agell, N.; Aguado, J. C.; Gamboa, G.

2016-03-01

A social multi-criteria evaluation framework for solving a real-case problem of selecting a wind farm location in the regions of Urgell and Conca de Barberá in Catalonia (northeast of Spain) is studied. This paper applies a qualitative multi-criteria decision analysis approach based on linguistic labels assessment able to address uncertainty and deal with different levels of precision. This method is based on qualitative reasoning as an artificial intelligence technique for assessing and ranking multi-attribute alternatives with linguistic labels in order to handle uncertainty. This method is suitable for problems in the social framework such as energy planning which require the construction of a dialogue process among many social actors with high level of complexity and uncertainty. The method is compared with an existing approach, which has been applied previously in the wind farm location problem. This approach, consisting of an outranking method, is based on Condorcet's original method. The results obtained by both approaches are analysed and their performance in the selection of the wind farm location is compared in aggregation procedures. Although results show that both methods conduct to similar alternatives rankings, the study highlights both their advantages and drawbacks.

Patients’ Non-Medical Characteristics Contribute to Collective Medical Decision-Making at Multidisciplinary Oncological Team Meetings

PubMed Central

Restivo, Léa; Apostolidis, Thémis; Bouhnik, Anne-Déborah; Garciaz, Sylvain; Aurran, Thérèse; Julian-Reynier, Claire

2016-01-01

Background The contribution of patients’ non-medical characteristics to individual physicians’ decision-making has attracted considerable attention, but little information is available on this topic in the context of collective decision-making. Medical decision-making at cancer centres is currently carried out using a collective approach, at MultiDisciplinary Team (MDT) meetings. The aim of this study was to determine how patients’ non-medical characteristics are presented at MDT meetings and how this information may affect the team’s final medical decisions. Design Observations were conducted at a French Cancer Centre during MDT meetings at which non-standard cases involving some uncertainty were discussed from March to May 2014. Physicians’ verbal statements and predefined contextual parameters were collected with a non-participant observational approach. Non numerical data collected in the form of open notes were then coded for quantitative analysis. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. Results In the final sample of patients’ records included and discussed (N = 290), non-medical characteristics were mentioned in 32.8% (n = 95) of the cases. These characteristics corresponded to demographics in 22.8% (n = 66) of the cases, psychological data in 11.7% (n = 34), and relational data in 6.2% (n = 18). The patient’s age and his/her “likeability” were the most frequently mentioned characteristics. In 17.9% of the cases discussed, the final decision was deferred: this outcome was positively associated with the patients’ non-medical characteristics and with uncertainty about the outcome of the therapeutic options available. Limitations The design of the study made it difficult to draw definite cause-and-effect conclusions. Conclusion The Social Representations approach suggests that patients’ non-medical characteristics constitute a kind of tacit professional knowledge that may be frequently mobilised in physicians’ everyday professional practice. The links observed between patients’ attributes and the medical decisions made at these meetings show that these attributes should be taken into account in order to understand how medical decisions are reached in difficult situations of this kind. PMID:27167521

Pilot error in air carrier mishaps: longitudinal trends among 558 reports, 1983-2002.

PubMed

Baker, Susan P; Qiang, Yandong; Rebok, George W; Li, Guohua

2008-01-01

Many interventions have been implemented in recent decades to reduce pilot error in flight operations. This study aims to identify longitudinal trends in the prevalence and patterns of pilot error and other factors in U.S. air carrier mishaps. National Transportation Safety Board investigation reports were examined for 558 air carrier mishaps during 1983-2002. Pilot errors and circumstances of mishaps were described and categorized. Rates were calculated per 10 million flights. The overall mishap rate remained fairly stable, but the proportion of mishaps involving pilot error decreased from 42% in 1983-87 to 25% in 1998-2002, a 40% reduction. The rate of mishaps related to poor decisions declined from 6.2 to 1.8 per 10 million flights, a 71% reduction; much of this decrease was due to a 76% reduction in poor decisions related to weather. Mishandling wind or runway conditions declined by 78%. The rate of mishaps involving poor crew interaction declined by 68%. Mishaps during takeoff declined by 70%, from 5.3 to 1.6 per 10 million flights. The latter reduction was offset by an increase in mishaps while the aircraft was standing, from 2.5 to 6.0 per 10 million flights, and during pushback, which increased from 0 to 3.1 per 10 million flights. Reductions in pilot errors involving decision making and crew coordination are important trends that may reflect improvements in training and technological advances that facilitate good decisions. Mishaps while aircraft are standing and during pushback have increased and deserve special attention.

Pilot Error in Air Carrier Mishaps: Longitudinal Trends Among 558 Reports, 1983–2002

PubMed Central

Baker, Susan P.; Qiang, Yandong; Rebok, George W.; Li, Guohua

2009-01-01

Background Many interventions have been implemented in recent decades to reduce pilot error in flight operations. This study aims to identify longitudinal trends in the prevalence and patterns of pilot error and other factors in U.S. air carrier mishaps. Method National Transportation Safety Board investigation reports were examined for 558 air carrier mishaps during 1983–2002. Pilot errors and circumstances of mishaps were described and categorized. Rates were calculated per 10 million flights. Results The overall mishap rate remained fairly stable, but the proportion of mishaps involving pilot error decreased from 42% in 1983–87 to 25% in 1998–2002, a 40% reduction. The rate of mishaps related to poor decisions declined from 6.2 to 1.8 per 10 million flights, a 71% reduction; much of this decrease was due to a 76% reduction in poor decisions related to weather. Mishandling wind or runway conditions declined by 78%. The rate of mishaps involving poor crew interaction declined by 68%. Mishaps during takeoff declined by 70%, from 5.3 to 1.6 per 10 million flights. The latter reduction was offset by an increase in mishaps while the aircraft was standing, from 2.5 to 6.0 per 10 million flights, and during pushback, which increased from 0 to 3.1 per 10 million flights. Conclusions Reductions in pilot errors involving decision making and crew coordination are important trends that may reflect improvements in training and technological advances that facilitate good decisions. Mishaps while aircraft are standing and during push-back have increased and deserve special attention. PMID:18225771

Development and feasibility testing of decision support for patients who are candidates for a prophylactic implantable defibrillator: a study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Patients, identified to be at risk for but who have never experienced a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia, have the option of receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) as prophylaxis against sudden cardiac death - a primary prevention indication. In Canada, there is no clear framework to support patients’ decision-making for these devices. Decision support, using a decision aid, could moderate treatment-related uncertainty and prepare patients to make well-informed decisions. Patient decision aids provide information on treatment options, risks, and benefits, to help patients clarify their values for outcomes of treatment options. The objectives of this research are: 1) develop a decision aid, 2) evaluate the decision aid, and 3) determine the feasibility of conducting a trial. Methods/design A development panel comprised of the core investigative team, health service researchers, decision science experts, cardiovascular healthcare practitioners, and ICD patient representatives will collaborate to provide input on the content and format of the aid. To generate probabilities to include in the aid, we will synthesize primary prevention ICD evidence. To obtain anonymous input about the facts and content, we will employ a modified Delphi process. To evaluate the draft decision aid will invite ICD patients and their families (n = 30) to rate its acceptability. After we evaluate the aid, to determine the feasibility, we will conduct a feasibility pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) in new ICD candidates (n = 80). Participants will be randomized to receive a decision aid prior to specialist consultation versus usual care. Results from the pilot RCT will determine the feasibility of research processes; inform sample size calculation, measure decision quality (knowledge, values, decision conflict) and the influence of health related quality of life on decision-making. Discussion Our study seeks to develop a decision aid, for patients offered their first ICD for prophylaxis against sudden cardiac death. This paper outlines the background and methods of a pilot randomized trial which will inform a larger multicenter trial. Ultimately, decision support prior to specialist consultation could enhance the decision-making process between patients, physicians, and families, associated with life-prolonging medical devices like the ICD. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01876173 PMID:24148851

Development and feasibility testing of decision support for patients who are candidates for a prophylactic implantable defibrillator: a study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Carroll, Sandra L; McGillion, Michael; Stacey, Dawn; Healey, Jeff S; Browne, Gina; Arthur, Heather M; Thabane, Lehana

2013-10-22

Patients, identified to be at risk for but who have never experienced a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia, have the option of receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) as prophylaxis against sudden cardiac death - a primary prevention indication. In Canada, there is no clear framework to support patients' decision-making for these devices. Decision support, using a decision aid, could moderate treatment-related uncertainty and prepare patients to make well-informed decisions. Patient decision aids provide information on treatment options, risks, and benefits, to help patients clarify their values for outcomes of treatment options. The objectives of this research are: 1) develop a decision aid, 2) evaluate the decision aid, and 3) determine the feasibility of conducting a trial. A development panel comprised of the core investigative team, health service researchers, decision science experts, cardiovascular healthcare practitioners, and ICD patient representatives will collaborate to provide input on the content and format of the aid. To generate probabilities to include in the aid, we will synthesize primary prevention ICD evidence. To obtain anonymous input about the facts and content, we will employ a modified Delphi process. To evaluate the draft decision aid will invite ICD patients and their families (n = 30) to rate its acceptability. After we evaluate the aid, to determine the feasibility, we will conduct a feasibility pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) in new ICD candidates (n = 80). Participants will be randomized to receive a decision aid prior to specialist consultation versus usual care. Results from the pilot RCT will determine the feasibility of research processes; inform sample size calculation, measure decision quality (knowledge, values, decision conflict) and the influence of health related quality of life on decision-making. Our study seeks to develop a decision aid, for patients offered their first ICD for prophylaxis against sudden cardiac death. This paper outlines the background and methods of a pilot randomized trial which will inform a larger multicenter trial. Ultimately, decision support prior to specialist consultation could enhance the decision-making process between patients, physicians, and families, associated with life-prolonging medical devices like the ICD. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01876173.

I know why you voted for Trump: (Over)inferring motives based on choice.

PubMed

Barasz, Kate; Kim, Tami; Evangelidis, Ioannis

2018-05-10

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen option's attribute values (e.g., a candidate's specific stance on a policy issue) to infer the importance of that attribute (e.g., the policy issue) to the decision-maker. Consequently, when a chosen option has an attribute whose value is extreme (e.g., an extreme policy stance), observers infer-sometimes incorrectly-that this attribute disproportionately motivated the decision-maker's choice. Seven studies demonstrate how observers use an attribute's value to infer its weight-the value-weight heuristic-and identify the role of perceived diagnosticity: more extreme attribute values give observers the subjective sense that they know more about a decision-maker's preferences, and in turn, increase the attribute's perceived importance. The paper explores how this heuristic can produce erroneous inferences and influence broader beliefs about decision-makers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sustaining Engagements for Integrated Heat-Health Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trtanj, J.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events are on the rise, evidenced by the record breaking heat in the summer of 2016 in the US, increased heat-related death toll in south Asia, and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The impacts, responses and adaptation to extreme heat are inherently local or region in nature and require multisector engagement to manage current and future heat risks. Understanding the character of the information demand, who needs it, when and how it is needed, how it is used, and the remaining research questions, requires sustained engagement of multiple science and decision making communities. The construct of Integrated Information Systems provides the framework that sustains this dialogue, supports the production of useful information, and the translation of knowledge to action. The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), a multi-agency collaboration, working at state, local and international levels, designed to facilitate an integrated approach to providing a suite of decision support services that reduce heat-related illness and death. NIHHIS sustains engagement across the public health, emergency management, disaster risk reduction, planning, housing, communication, climate, weather and other science communities. This presentation will highlight NIHHS sustained engagements in the Rio Grande Bravo region, other NIHHIS pilots, and international efforts building on the NIHHIS framework. NIHHIS, launched by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2015, now has over eight Federal partners and a burgeoning mix of pilots, projects and partners at state, local and international levels.

Graduate Attribute Attainment in a Multi-Level Undergraduate Geography Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mager, Sarah; Spronken-Smith, Rachel

2014-01-01

We investigated students' perceptions of graduate attributes in a multi-level (second and third year) geography course. A case study with mixed methodology was employed, with data collected through focus groups and a survey. We found that undergraduate geography students can identify the skills, knowledge and attributes that are developed through…

Patient‐focussed decision‐making in early‐stage prostate cancer: insights from a cognitively based decision aid

PubMed Central

Feldman‐Stewart, Deb; Brundage, Michael D; Manen, Lori Van; Svenson, Ola

2004-01-01

Abstract Purpose  To study the cognitive processes of early‐stage prostate cancer patients as they determined which treatment they preferred, using our cognitively based decision aid. Method  The aid was a one‐to‐one interview that included the structured presentation of information, listing exercises in which the patient identified attributes important to his decision, and trade‐off exercises to help him weigh and integrate those attributes together. At various points of the interview, patients identified the attributes they felt were important to their decision, rated their treatment options and completed standardized assessments relating to their decision. In addition, patients participated in a follow‐up interview at the time they made their actual treatment decision and again 3 months later. Results  Sixty of 70 (86%) of the invited patients participated in the study. Participating patients identified a median of four important attributes (range 1–10); 36 different attributes were identified at some point in the interview by the group. During the interview, 78% of patients changed which attributes they considered important, and 72% changed their treatment ratings. Stability of treatment choice after the interview and lack of regret after the decision were each positively associated with increasing differentiation between treatment options over time. Conclusions  The decision process appears to be dynamic for the patients with great variability across patients in what is important to the decision. Increasing stability of choice and lack of regret appear to be related positively to increasing difference over time in how attractive the preferred option is over its closest competitor, rather than to the size of the difference at any one point in time. PMID:15117387

Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

2014-09-01

The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

Effects of foveal information processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, R. L., Sr.

1984-01-01

The scanning behavior of pilots must be understood so that cockpit displays can be assembled which will provide the most information accurately and quickly to the pilot. The results of seven years of collecting and analyzing pilot scanning data are summarized. The data indicate that pilot scanning behavior is: (1) subsconscious; (2) situation dependent; and (3) can be disrupted if pilots are forced to make conscious decisions. Testing techniques and scanning analysis techniques have been developed that are sensitive to pilot workload.

Heuristic-based information acquisition and decision making among pilots.

PubMed

Wiggins, Mark W; Bollwerk, Sandra

2006-01-01

This research was designed to examine the impact of heuristic-based approaches to the acquisition of task-related information on the selection of an optimal alternative during simulated in-flight decision making. The work integrated features of naturalistic and normative decision making and strategies of information acquisition within a computer-based, decision support framework. The study comprised two phases, the first of which involved familiarizing pilots with three different heuristic-based strategies of information acquisition: frequency, elimination by aspects, and majority of confirming decisions. The second stage enabled participants to choose one of the three strategies of information acquisition to resolve a fourth (choice) scenario. The results indicated that task-oriented experience, rather than the information acquisition strategies, predicted the selection of the optimal alternative. It was also evident that of the three strategies available, the elimination by aspects information acquisition strategy was preferred by most participants. It was concluded that task-oriented experience, rather than the process of information acquisition, predicted task accuracy during the decision-making task. It was also concluded that pilots have a preference for one particular approach to information acquisition. Applications of outcomes of this research include the development of decision support systems that adapt to the information-processing capabilities and preferences of users.

Cockpit weather information needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along the route can be accomplished prior to pilot acceptance of the clearance. An ongoing multiphase test series is planned for testing and modifying the graphical weather system. Preliminary data shows that the nine test subjects considered the graphical presentation to be much better than their current weather information source for situation awareness, flight safety, and reroute decision making.

Incorporating data link messaging into a multi-function display to support the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) and the self-separation of general aviation aircraft.

PubMed

Adams, Catherine A; Murdoch, Jennifer L; Consiglio, Maria C; Williams, Daniel M

2007-07-01

One objective of the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Project is to increase the capacity and utilization of small non-towered, non-radar equipped airports by transferring traffic management activities to an automated system and separation responsibilities to general aviation (GA) pilots. This paper describes the development of a research multi-function display (MFD) to support the interaction between pilots and an automated Airport Management Module (AMM). Preliminary results of simulation and flight tests indicate that adding the responsibility of monitoring other traffic for self-separation does not increase pilots' subjective workload levels. Pilots preferred using the enhanced MFD to execute flight procedures, reporting improved situation awareness (SA) over conventional instrument flight rules (IFR) procedures.

Informing efficient randomised controlled trials: exploration of challenges in developing progression criteria for internal pilot studies.

PubMed

Avery, Kerry N L; Williamson, Paula R; Gamble, Carrol; O'Connell Francischetto, Elaine; Metcalfe, Chris; Davidson, Peter; Williams, Hywel; Blazeby, Jane M

2017-02-17

Designing studies with an internal pilot phase may optimise the use of pilot work to inform more efficient randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Careful selection of preagreed decision or 'progression' criteria at the juncture between the internal pilot and main trial phases provides a valuable opportunity to evaluate the likely success of the main trial and optimise its design or, if necessary, to make the decision not to proceed with the main trial. Guidance on the appropriate selection and application of progression criteria is, however, lacking. This paper outlines the key issues to consider in the optimal development and review of operational progression criteria for RCTs with an internal pilot phase. A structured literature review and exploration of stakeholders' opinions at a Medical Research Council (MRC) Hubs for Trials Methodology Research workshop. Key stakeholders included triallists, methodologists, statisticians and funders. There is considerable variation in the use of progression criteria for RCTs with an internal pilot phase, although 3 common issues predominate: trial recruitment, protocol adherence and outcome data. Detailed and systematic reporting around the decision-making process for stopping, amending or proceeding to a main trial is uncommon, which may hamper understanding in the research community about the appropriate and optimal use of RCTs with an internal pilot phase. 10 top tips for the development, use and reporting of progression criteria for internal pilot studies are presented. Systematic and transparent reporting of the design, results and evaluation of internal pilot trials in the literature should be encouraged in order to facilitate understanding in the research community and to inform future trials. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Informing efficient randomised controlled trials: exploration of challenges in developing progression criteria for internal pilot studies

PubMed Central

Williamson, Paula R; Gamble, Carrol; O'Connell Francischetto, Elaine; Metcalfe, Chris; Davidson, Peter; Williams, Hywel; Blazeby, Jane M

2017-01-01

Objectives Designing studies with an internal pilot phase may optimise the use of pilot work to inform more efficient randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Careful selection of preagreed decision or ‘progression’ criteria at the juncture between the internal pilot and main trial phases provides a valuable opportunity to evaluate the likely success of the main trial and optimise its design or, if necessary, to make the decision not to proceed with the main trial. Guidance on the appropriate selection and application of progression criteria is, however, lacking. This paper outlines the key issues to consider in the optimal development and review of operational progression criteria for RCTs with an internal pilot phase. Design A structured literature review and exploration of stakeholders' opinions at a Medical Research Council (MRC) Hubs for Trials Methodology Research workshop. Key stakeholders included triallists, methodologists, statisticians and funders. Results There is considerable variation in the use of progression criteria for RCTs with an internal pilot phase, although 3 common issues predominate: trial recruitment, protocol adherence and outcome data. Detailed and systematic reporting around the decision-making process for stopping, amending or proceeding to a main trial is uncommon, which may hamper understanding in the research community about the appropriate and optimal use of RCTs with an internal pilot phase. 10 top tips for the development, use and reporting of progression criteria for internal pilot studies are presented. Conclusions Systematic and transparent reporting of the design, results and evaluation of internal pilot trials in the literature should be encouraged in order to facilitate understanding in the research community and to inform future trials. PMID:28213598

General Aviation Pilots' Perceived Usage and Valuation of Aviation Weather Information Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara; Lane, Suzanne; Garland, Daniel

2002-01-01

Aviation suffers many accidents due to the lack of good weather information in flight. Existing aviation weather information is difficult to obtain when it is most needed and is not well formatted for in-flight use. Because it is generally presented aurally, aviation weather information is difficult to integrate with spatial flight information and retain for reference. Efforts, by NASA's Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) team and others, to improve weather information accessibility, usability and decision aiding will enhance General Aviation (GA) pilots' weather situation awareness and decision-making and therefore should improve the safety of GA flight. Consideration of pilots' economic concerns will ensure that in-flight weather information systems are financially accessible to GA pilots as well. The purpose of this survey was to describe how aviation operator communities gather and use weather information as well as how weather related decisions are made between flight crews and supporting personnel. Pilots of small GA aircraft experience the most weather-related accidents as well as the most fatal weather related accident. For this reason, the survey design and advertisement focused on encouraging participation from GA pilots. Perhaps as a result of this emphasis, most responses, 97 responses or 85% of the entire response set, were from GA pilots, This paper presents only analysis of these GA pilots' responses. The insights provided by this survey regarding GA pilots' perceived value and usage of current aviation weather information. services, and products provide a basis for technological approaches to improve GA safety. Results of this survey are discussed in the context of survey limitations and prior work, and serve as the foundation for a model of weather information value, guidance for the design of in-flight weather information systems, and definition of further research toward their development.

An environmental decision framework applied to marine engine control technologies.

PubMed

Corbett, James J; Chapman, David

2006-06-01

This paper develops a decision framework for considering emission control technologies on marine engines, informed by standard decision theory, with an open structure that may be adapted by operators with specific vessel and technology attributes different from those provided here. Attributes relate objectives important to choosing control technologies with specific alternatives that may meet several of the objectives differently. The transparent framework enables multiple stakeholders to understand how different subjective judgments and varying attribute properties may result in different technology choices. Standard scoring techniques ensure that attributes are not biased by subjective scoring and that weights are the primary quantitative input where subjective preferences are exercised. An expected value decision structure is adopted that considers probabilities (likelihood) that a given alternative can meet its claims; alternative decision criteria are discussed. Capital and annual costs are combined using a net present value approach. An iterative approach is advocated that allows for screening and disqualifying alternatives that do not meet minimum conditions for acceptance, such as engine warranty or U.S. Coast Guard requirements. This decision framework assists vessel operators in considering explicitly important attributes and in representing choices clearly to other stakeholders concerned about reducing air pollution from vessels. This general decision structure may also be applied similarly to other environmental controls in marine applications.

The Relationship of Decision-Making Styles and Attributional Styles in Addicted and Non-addicted Men.

PubMed

Shaghaghy, Farhad; Saffarinia, Majid; Iranpoor, Mohadeseh; Soltanynejad, Ali

2011-01-01

One of social problems which has affected our society and resulted in problems for different groups of people is drug abuse. This issue indicates a serious psychological, physical and social problem in community. Social skills have positive and successful influences in prevention of substance abuse. This includes the ability to explain events correctly and then appropriate decision making. This study compares decision making styles and attributional styles between addicted and non addicted men to recognize their role in addiction. In this study, 200 addicted and non addicted men were randomly selected. Decision-making style and attributional style questionnaires were used. Data analysis was performed by independent Student's t and Pearson correlation tests. The study population included 81 addicted and 90 non-addicted men. Addicted and non addicted men were significantly different in rational decision-making style (P < 0.05). Negative relationship was found between rational decision making and optimistic attribution style (r = -0.305, P < 0.01) and direct relationship was found between rational decision making and learned helplessness (r = 0.309, P < 0.01). Our study showed that addicts are less rational in decision making and addicts that developed learned helplessness were less rational and did not have optimistic attribution style. These issues show that addiction institutions and therapists have to pay attention to cognitive factors for addiction prevention.

Expertise and age differences in pilot decision making.

PubMed

Morrow, Daniel G; Miller, Lisa M Soederberg; Ridolfo, Heather E; Magnor, Clifford; Fischer, Ute M; Kokayeff, Nina K; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A L

2009-01-01

We examined the influence of age and expertise on pilot decision making. Older and younger expert and novice pilots read at their own pace scenarios describing simpler or more complex flight situations. Then in a standard interview they discussed the scenario problem and how they would respond. Protocols were coded for identification of problem and solutions to this problem, and frequency of elaborations on problem and solution. Scenario comprehension was measured as differential reading time allocation to problem-critical information and scenario memory by the accuracy of answering questions about the scenarios after the interview. All groups accurately identified the problems, but experts elaborated problem descriptions more than novices did. Experts also spent more time reading critical information in the complex scenarios, which may reflect time needed to develop elaborate situation models of the problems. Expertise comprehension benefits were similar for older and younger pilots. Older experts were especially likely to elaborate the problem compared to younger experts, while older novices were less likely to elaborate the problem and to identify appropriate solutions compared to their younger counterparts. The findings suggest age invariance in knowledge-based comprehension relevant to pilot decision making.

Emergency medical service (EMS): A unique flight environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shively, R. Jay

1993-01-01

The EMS flight environment is unique in today's aviation. The pilots must respond quickly to emergency events and often fly to landing zones where they have never been before . The time from initially receiving a call to being airborne can be as little as two to three minutes. Often the EMS pilot is the only aviation professional on site, they have no operations people or other pilots to aid them in making decisons. Further, since they are often flying to accident scenes, not airports, there is often complete weather and condition information. Therefore, the initial decision that the pilot must make, accepting or declining a flight, can become very difficult. The accident rate of EMS helicopters has been relatively high over the past years. NASA-Ames research center has taken several steps in an attempt to aid EMS pilots in their decision making and situational awareness. A preflight risk assessment system (SAFE) was developed to aid pilots in their decision making, and was tested at an EMS service. The resutls of the study were promising and a second version incorporating the lessons learned is under development. A second line of research was the development of a low cost electronic chart display (ECD). This is a digital map display to help pilots maintain geographical orientation. Another thrust was undertaken in conjunction with the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). This involved publicizing the ASRS to EMS pilots and personnel, and calling each of the reporters back to gather additional information. This paper will discuss these efforts and how they may positively impact the safety of EMS operations.

Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less

Don't Discount Societal Value in Cost-Effectiveness Comment on "Priority Setting for Universal Health Coverage: We Need Evidence-Informed Deliberative Processes, Not Just More Evidence on Cost-Effectiveness".

PubMed

Hall, William

2017-01-14

As healthcare resources become increasingly scarce due to growing demand and stagnating budgets, the need for effective priority setting and resource allocation will become ever more critical to providing sustainable care to patients. While societal values should certainly play a part in guiding these processes, the methodology used to capture these values need not necessarily be limited to multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA)-based processes including 'evidence-informed deliberative processes.' However, if decision-makers intend to not only incorporates the values of the public they serve into decisions but have the decisions enacted as well, consideration should be given to more direct involvement of stakeholders. Based on the examples provided by Baltussen et al, MCDA-based processes like 'evidence-informed deliberative processes' could be one way of achieving this laudable goal. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Multi-Dimensional Assessment of Professional Competence during Initial Pilot Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Douglas Andrew

2017-01-01

A twenty-year forecast predicting significant increases in global air transportation portends a need to increase the capacity and effectiveness of initial pilot training. In addition to quantitative concerns related to the supply of new pilots, industry leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the qualitative output of current aviation training…

EXPERIMENTING WITH MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY SURVEY METHODS IN A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL VALUATION PROBLEM. (R824699)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

The use of willingness-to-pay (WTP) survey techniques based on multi-attribute utility (MAU) approaches has been recommended by some authors as a way to deal simultaneously with two difficulties that increasingly plague environmental valuation. The first of th...

The effect of subjective awareness measures on performance in artificial grammar learning task.

PubMed

Ivanchei, Ivan I; Moroshkina, Nadezhda V

2018-01-01

Systematic research into implicit learning requires well-developed awareness-measurement techniques. Recently, trial-by-trial measures have been widely used. However, they can increase complexity of a study because they are an additional experimental variable. We tested the effects of these measures on performance in artificial grammar learning study. Four groups of participants were assigned to different awareness measures conditions: confidence ratings, post-decision wagering, decision strategy attribution or none. Decision-strategy-attribution participants demonstrated better grammar learning and longer response times compared to controls. They also exhibited a conservative bias. Grammaticality by itself was a stronger predictor of strings endorsement in decision-strategy-attribution group compared to other groups. Confidence ratings and post-decision wagering only affected the response times. These results were supported by an additional experiment that used a balanced chunk strength design. We conclude that a decision-strategy-attribution procedure may force participants to adopt an analytical decision-making strategy and rely mostly on conscious knowledge of artificial grammar. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selection for inpatient rehabilitation after severe stroke: what factors influence rehabilitation assessor decision-making?

PubMed

Hakkennes, Sharon; Hill, Keith D; Brock, Kim; Bernhardt, Julie; Churilov, Leonid

2013-01-01

This study aimed to identify factors that assessors considered important in decision-making regarding suitability for inpatient rehabilitation after acute severe stroke. Multi-site prospective observational cohort study. Consecutive acute, severe stroke patients and their assessors for inpatient rehabilitation. Rehabilitation assessors completed a questionnaire, rating the importance (10 point visual analogue scale) and direction (positive, negative or neutral) of 15 patient related and 2 organisational items potentially affecting their decision regarding patients' acceptance to rehabilitation. Of the 75 patients referred to rehabilitation and included in this study 61 (81.3%) were accepted for inpatient rehabilitation. The items considered to be most important in the decision to accept the patient for rehabilitation were pre-morbid cognition, pre-morbid mobility and pre-morbid communication. For those not accepted the most important items were current mobility, social support and current cognition. Factor analysis revealed 3 underlying factors, interpreted as post-stroke status, pre-morbid status, and social attributes, accounting for 61.8% of the total variance. All were independently associated with acceptance for rehabilitation (p < 0.05). This study highlights the importance of pre-morbid function and social factors in addition to post-stroke function in the decision making process for acceptance to rehabilitation following severe stroke. Future models for selection for rehabilitation should consider inclusion of these factors.

Clarifying values: an updated review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Consensus guidelines have recommended that decision aids include a process for helping patients clarify their values. We sought to examine the theoretical and empirical evidence related to the use of values clarification methods in patient decision aids. Methods Building on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) Collaboration’s 2005 review of values clarification methods in decision aids, we convened a multi-disciplinary expert group to examine key definitions, decision-making process theories, and empirical evidence about the effects of values clarification methods in decision aids. To summarize the current state of theory and evidence about the role of values clarification methods in decision aids, we undertook a process of evidence review and summary. Results Values clarification methods (VCMs) are best defined as methods to help patients think about the desirability of options or attributes of options within a specific decision context, in order to identify which option he/she prefers. Several decision making process theories were identified that can inform the design of values clarification methods, but no single “best” practice for how such methods should be constructed was determined. Our evidence review found that existing VCMs were used for a variety of different decisions, rarely referenced underlying theory for their design, but generally were well described in regard to their development process. Listing the pros and cons of a decision was the most common method used. The 13 trials that compared decision support with or without VCMs reached mixed results: some found that VCMs improved some decision-making processes, while others found no effect. Conclusions Values clarification methods may improve decision-making processes and potentially more distal outcomes. However, the small number of evaluations of VCMs and, where evaluations exist, the heterogeneity in outcome measures makes it difficult to determine their overall effectiveness or the specific characteristics that increase effectiveness. PMID:24625261

Inductive Learning Approaches for Improving Pilot Awareness of Aircraft Faults

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spikovska, Lilly; Iverson, David L.; Poll, Scott; Pryor, anna

2005-01-01

Neural network flight controllers are able to accommodate a variety of aircraft control surface faults without detectable degradation of aircraft handling qualities. Under some faults, however, the effective flight envelope is reduced; this can lead to unexpected behavior if a pilot performs an action that exceeds the remaining control authority of the damaged aircraft. The goal of our work is to increase the pilot s situational awareness by informing him of the type of damage and resulting reduction in flight envelope. Our methodology integrates two inductive learning systems with novel visualization techniques. One learning system, the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), learns to detect when a simulation includes faulty controls, while two others, Inductive Classification System (INCLASS) and multiple binary decision tree system (utilizing C4.5), determine the type of fault. In off-line training using only non-failure data, IMS constructs a characterization of nominal flight control performance based on control signals issued by the neural net flight controller. This characterization can be used to determine the degree of control augmentation required in the pitch, roll, and yaw command channels to counteract control surface failures. This derived information is typically sufficient to distinguish between the various control surface failures and is used to train both INCLASS and C4.5. Using data from failed control surface flight simulations, INCLASS and C4.5 independently discover and amplify features in IMS results that can be used to differentiate each distinct control surface failure situation. In real-time flight simulations, distinguishing features learned during training are used to classify control surface failures. Knowledge about the type of failure can be used by an additional automated system to alter its approach for planning tactical and strategic maneuvers. The knowledge can also be used directly to increase the pilot s situational awareness and inform manual maneuver decisions. Our multi-modal display of this information provides speech output to issue control surface failure warnings to a lesser-used communication channel and provides graphical displays with pilot-selectable !eve!s of details to issues additional information about the failure. We also describe a potential presentation for flight envelope reduction that can be viewed separately or integrated with an existing attitude indicator instrument. Preliminary results suggest that the inductive approach is capable of detecting that a control surface has failed and determining the type of fault. Furthermore, preliminary evaluations suggest that the interface discloses a concise summary of this information to the pilot.

Modeling Pilot State in Next Generation Aircraft Alert Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlin, Alan S.; Alexander, Amy L.; Schurr, Nathan

2011-01-01

The Next Generation Air Transportation System will introduce new, advanced sensor technologies into the cockpit that must convey a large number of potentially complex alerts. Our work focuses on the challenges associated with prioritizing aircraft sensor alerts in a quick and efficient manner, essentially determining when and how to alert the pilot This "alert decision" becomes very difficult in NextGen due to the following challenges: 1) the increasing number of potential hazards, 2) the uncertainty associated with the state of potential hazards as well as pilot slate , and 3) the limited time to make safely-critical decisions. In this paper, we focus on pilot state and present a model for anticipating duration and quality of pilot behavior, for use in a larger system which issues aircraft alerts. We estimate pilot workload, which we model as being dependent on factors including mental effort, task demands. and task performance. We perform a mathematically rigorous analysis of the model and resulting alerting plans. We simulate the model in software and present simulated results with respect to manipulation of the pilot measures.

Is it the time to rethink clinical decision-making strategies? From a single clinical outcome evaluation to a Clinical Multi-criteria Decision Assessment (CMDA).

PubMed

Migliore, Alberto; Integlia, Davide; Bizzi, Emanuele; Piaggio, Tomaso

2015-10-01

There are plenty of different clinical, organizational and economic parameters to consider in order having a complete assessment of the total impact of a pharmaceutical treatment. In the attempt to follow, a holistic approach aimed to provide an evaluation embracing all clinical parameters in order to choose the best treatments, it is necessary to compare and weight multiple criteria. Therefore, a change is required: we need to move from a decision-making context based on the assessment of one single criteria towards a transparent and systematic framework enabling decision makers to assess all relevant parameters simultaneously in order to choose the best treatment to use. In order to apply the MCDA methodology to clinical decision making the best pharmaceutical treatment (or medical devices) to use to treat a specific pathology, we suggest a specific application of the Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for the purpose, like a Clinical Multi-criteria Decision Assessment CMDA. In CMDA, results from both meta-analysis and observational studies are used by a clinical consensus after attributing weights to specific domains and related parameters. The decision will result from a related comparison of all consequences (i.e., efficacy, safety, adherence, administration route) existing behind the choice to use a specific pharmacological treatment. The match will yield a score (in absolute value) that link each parameter with a specific intervention, and then a final score for each treatment. The higher is the final score; the most appropriate is the intervention to treat disease considering all criteria (domain an parameters). The results will allow the physician to evaluate the best clinical treatment for his patients considering at the same time all relevant criteria such as clinical effectiveness for all parameters and administration route. The use of CMDA model will yield a clear and complete indication of the best pharmaceutical treatment to use for patients, helping physicians to choose drugs with a complete set of information, imputed in the model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eliciting preferences for priority setting in genetic testing: a pilot study comparing best-worst scaling and discrete-choice experiments.

PubMed

Severin, Franziska; Schmidtke, Jörg; Mühlbacher, Axel; Rogowski, Wolf H

2013-11-01

Given the increasing number of genetic tests available, decisions have to be made on how to allocate limited health-care resources to them. Different criteria have been proposed to guide priority setting. However, their relative importance is unclear. Discrete-choice experiments (DCEs) and best-worst scaling experiments (BWSs) are methods used to identify and weight various criteria that influence orders of priority. This study tests whether these preference eliciting techniques can be used for prioritising genetic tests and compares the empirical findings resulting from these two approaches. Pilot DCE and BWS questionnaires were developed for the same criteria: prevalence, severity, clinical utility, alternatives to genetic testing available, infrastructure for testing and care established, and urgency of care. Interview-style experiments were carried out among different genetics professionals (mainly clinical geneticists, researchers and biologists). A total of 31 respondents completed the DCE and 26 completed the BWS experiment. Weights for the levels of the six attributes were estimated by conditional logit models. Although the results derived from the DCE and BWS experiments differed in detail, we found similar valuation patterns in the DCE and BWS experiments. The respondents attached greatest value to tests with high clinical utility (defined by the availability of treatments that reduce mortality and morbidity) and to testing for highly prevalent conditions. The findings from this study exemplify how decision makers can use quantitative preference eliciting methods to measure aggregated preferences in order to prioritise alternative clinical interventions. Further research is necessary to confirm the survey results.

Critical care nurses' decision making: sedation assessment and management in intensive care.

PubMed

Aitken, Leanne M; Marshall, Andrea P; Elliott, Rosalind; McKinley, Sharon

2009-01-01

This study was designed to examine the decision making processes that nurses use when assessing and managing sedation for a critically ill patient, specifically the attributes and concepts used to determine sedation needs and the influence of a sedation guideline on the decision making processes. Sedation management forms an integral component of the care of critical care patients. Despite this, there is little understanding of how nurses make decisions regarding assessment and management of intensive care patients' sedation requirements. Appropriate nursing assessment and management of sedation therapy is essential to quality patient care. Observational study. Nurses providing sedation management for a critically ill patient were observed and asked to think aloud during two separate occasions for two hours of care. Follow-up interviews were conducted to collect data from five expert critical care nurses pre- and postimplementation of a sedation guideline. Data from all sources were integrated, with data analysis identifying the type and number of attributes and concepts used to form decisions. Attributes and concepts most frequently used related to sedation and sedatives, anxiety and agitation, pain and comfort and neurological status. On average each participant raised 48 attributes related to sedation assessment and management in the preintervention phase and 57 attributes postintervention. These attributes related to assessment (pre, 58%; post, 65%), physiology (pre, 10%; post, 9%) and treatment (pre, 31%; post, 26%) aspects of care. Decision making in this setting is highly complex, incorporating a wide range of attributes that concentrate primarily on assessment aspects of care. Clinical guidelines should provide support for strategies known to positively influence practice. Further, the education of nurses to use such guidelines optimally must take into account the highly complex iterative process and wide range of data sources used to make decisions.

Multi-criteria decision making to support waste management: A critical review of current practices and methods.

PubMed

Goulart Coelho, Lineker M; Lange, Liséte C; Coelho, Hosmanny Mg

2017-01-01

Solid waste management is a complex domain involving the interaction of several dimensions; thus, its analysis and control impose continuous challenges for decision makers. In this context, multi-criteria decision-making models have become important and convenient supporting tools for solid waste management because they can handle problems involving multiple dimensions and conflicting criteria. However, the selection of the multi-criteria decision-making method is a hard task since there are several multi-criteria decision-making approaches, each one with a large number of variants whose applicability depends on information availability and the aim of the study. Therefore, to support researchers and decision makers, the objectives of this article are to present a literature review of multi-criteria decision-making applications used in solid waste management, offer a critical assessment of the current practices, and provide suggestions for future works. A brief review of fundamental concepts on this topic is first provided, followed by the analysis of 260 articles related to the application of multi-criteria decision making in solid waste management. These studies were investigated in terms of the methodology, including specific steps such as normalisation, weighting, and sensitivity analysis. In addition, information related to waste type, the study objective, and aspects considered was recorded. From the articles analysed it is noted that studies using multi-criteria decision making in solid waste management are predominantly addressed to problems related to municipal solid waste involving facility location or management strategy.

Forewarning of hypotensive events using a Bayesian artificial neural network in neurocritical care.

PubMed

Donald, Rob; Howells, Tim; Piper, Ian; Enblad, P; Nilsson, P; Chambers, I; Gregson, B; Citerio, G; Kiening, K; Neumann, J; Ragauskas, A; Sahuquillo, J; Sinnott, R; Stell, A

2018-05-24

Traumatically brain injured (TBI) patients are at risk from secondary insults. Arterial hypotension, critically low blood pressure, is one of the most dangerous secondary insults and is related to poor outcome in patients. The overall aim of this study was to get proof of the concept that advanced statistical techniques (machine learning) are methods that are able to provide early warning of impending hypotensive events before they occur during neuro-critical care. A Bayesian artificial neural network (BANN) model predicting episodes of hypotension was developed using data from 104 patients selected from the BrainIT multi-center database. Arterial hypotension events were recorded and defined using the Edinburgh University Secondary Insult Grades (EUSIG) physiological adverse event scoring system. The BANN was trained on a random selection of 50% of the available patients (n = 52) and validated on the remaining cohort. A multi-center prospective pilot study (Phase 1, n = 30) was then conducted with the system running live in the clinical environment, followed by a second validation pilot study (Phase 2, n = 49). From these prospectively collected data, a final evaluation study was done on 69 of these patients with 10 patients excluded from the Phase 2 study because of insufficient or invalid data. Each data collection phase was a prospective non-interventional observational study conducted in a live clinical setting to test the data collection systems and the model performance. No prediction information was available to the clinical teams during a patient's stay in the ICU. The final cohort (n = 69), using a decision threshold of 0.4, and including false positive checks, gave a sensitivity of 39.3% (95% CI 32.9-46.1) and a specificity of 91.5% (95% CI 89.0-93.7). Using a decision threshold of 0.3, and false positive correction, gave a sensitivity of 46.6% (95% CI 40.1-53.2) and specificity of 85.6% (95% CI 82.3-88.8). With a decision threshold of 0.3, > 15 min warning of patient instability can be achieved. We have shown, using advanced machine learning techniques running in a live neuro-critical care environment, that it would be possible to give neurointensive teams early warning of potential hypotensive events before they emerge, allowing closer monitoring and earlier clinical assessment in an attempt to prevent the onset of hypotension. The multi-centre clinical infrastructure developed to support the clinical studies provides a solid base for further collaborative research on data quality, false positive correction and the display of early warning data in a clinical setting.

Autonomous Task Management and Decision Support Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burian, Barbara

2017-01-01

For some time aircraft manufacturers and researchers have been pursuing mechanisms for reducing crew workload and providing better decision support to the pilots, especially during non-normal situations. Some previous attempts to develop task managers or pilot decision support tools have not resulted in robust and fully functional systems. However, the increasing sophistication of sensors and automated reasoners, and the exponential surge in the amount of digital data that is now available create a ripe environment for the development of a robust, dynamic, task manager and decision support tool that is context sensitive and integrates information from a wide array of on-board and off aircraft sourcesa tool that monitors systems and the overall flight situation, anticipates information needs, prioritizes tasks appropriately, keeps pilots well informed, and is nimble and able to adapt to changing circumstances. This presentation will discuss the many significant challenges and issues associated with the development and functionality of such a system for use on the aircraft flight deck.

Overdetection in breast cancer screening: development and preliminary evaluation of a decision aid

PubMed Central

Hersch, Jolyn; Jansen, Jesse; Barratt, Alexandra; Irwig, Les; Houssami, Nehmat; Jacklyn, Gemma; Thornton, Hazel; Dhillon, Haryana; McCaffery, Kirsten

2014-01-01

Objective To develop, pilot and refine a decision aid (ahead of a randomised trial evaluation) for women around age 50 facing their initial decision about whether to undergo mammography screening. Design Two-stage mixed-method pilot study including qualitative interviews (n=15) and a randomised comparison using a quantitative survey (n=34). Setting New South Wales, Australia. Participants Women aged 43–59 years with no personal history of breast cancer. Interventions The decision aid provides evidence-based information about important outcomes of mammography screening over 20 years (breast cancer mortality reduction, overdetection and false positives) compared with no screening. The information is presented in a short booklet for women, combining text and visual formats. A control version produced for the purposes of comparison omits the overdetection-related content. Outcomes Comprehension of key decision aid content and acceptability of the materials. Results Most women considered the decision aid clear and helpful and would recommend it to others. Nonetheless, the piloting process raised important issues that we tried to address in iterative revisions. Some participants found it hard to understand overdetection and why it is of concern, while there was often confusion about the distinction between overdetection and false positives. In a screening context, encountering balanced information rather than persuasion appears to be contrary to people's expectations, but women appreciated the opportunity to become better informed. Conclusions The concept of overdetection is complex and new to the public. This study highlights some key challenges for communicating about this issue. It is important to clarify that overdetection differs from false positives in terms of its more serious consequences (overtreatment and associated harms). Screening decision aids also must clearly explain their purpose of facilitating informed choice. A staged approach to development and piloting of decision aids is recommended to further improve understanding of overdetection and support informed decision-making about screening. PMID:25256188

Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landmesser, John Andrew

2014-01-01

Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

Family involvement in medical decision-making: Perceptions of nursing and psychology students.

PubMed

Itzhaki, Michal; Hildesheimer, Galya; Barnoy, Sivia; Katz, Michael

2016-05-01

Family members often rely on health care professionals to guide and support them through the decision-making process. Although family involvement in medical decisions should be included in the preservice curriculum for the health care professions, perceptions of students in caring professions on family involvement in medical decision-making have not yet been examined. To examine the perceptions of nursing and psychology students on family involvement in medical decision-making for seriously ill patients. A descriptive cross-sectional design was used. First year undergraduate nursing and psychology students studying for their Bachelor of Arts degree were recruited. Perceptions were assessed with a questionnaire constructed based on the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), which examines decision-maker preferences. The questionnaire consisted of two parts referring to the respondent once as the patient and then as the family caregiver. Questionnaires were completed by 116 nursing students and 156 psychology students. Most were of the opinion that family involvement in decision-making is appropriate, especially when the patient is incapable of making decisions. Nursing students were more inclined than psychology students to think that financial, emotional, and value-based considerations should be part of the family's involvement in decision-making. Both groups of students perceived the emotional consideration as most acceptable, whereas the financial consideration was considered the least acceptable. Nursing and psychology students perceive family involvement in medical decision-making as appropriate. In order to train students to support families in the process of decision-making, further research should examine Shared Decision-Making (SDM) programs, which involve patient and clinician collaboration in health care decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preferences of processing companies for attributes of Swiss milk: a conjoint analysis in a business-to-business market.

PubMed

Boesch, I

2013-04-01

This study aimed to determine key attributes of milk that drive a processor's supply decisions and possibilities for differentiation based on these product attributes. Feedback-driven exploration was applied to derive product attributes relevant to the buying decision. Conjoint analysis with hierarchical Bayes estimation methods was used to determine the relative importance of attributes. Results show that the technical aspects of milk, as well as the price and country of origin, dominate the buying decision. Potential for differentiation was found for environmental and societal attributes as well as freedom from genetically modified products. Product and supplier criteria also provide the potential to segment the market if the price premium is held within limits. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neural Underpinnings of Decision Strategy Selection: A Review and a Theoretical Model.

PubMed

Wichary, Szymon; Smolen, Tomasz

2016-01-01

In multi-attribute choice, decision makers use decision strategies to arrive at the final choice. What are the neural mechanisms underlying decision strategy selection? The first goal of this paper is to provide a literature review on the neural underpinnings and cognitive models of decision strategy selection and thus set the stage for a neurocognitive model of this process. The second goal is to outline such a unifying, mechanistic model that can explain the impact of noncognitive factors (e.g., affect, stress) on strategy selection. To this end, we review the evidence for the factors influencing strategy selection, the neural basis of strategy use and the cognitive models of this process. We also present the Bottom-Up Model of Strategy Selection (BUMSS). The model assumes that the use of the rational Weighted Additive strategy and the boundedly rational heuristic Take The Best can be explained by one unifying, neurophysiologically plausible mechanism, based on the interaction of the frontoparietal network, orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex and the brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. According to BUMSS, there are three processes that form the bottom-up mechanism of decision strategy selection and lead to the final choice: (1) cue weight computation, (2) gain modulation, and (3) weighted additive evaluation of alternatives. We discuss how these processes might be implemented in the brain, and how this knowledge allows us to formulate novel predictions linking strategy use and neural signals.

Concurrent Pilot Instrument Monitoring in the Automated Multi-Crew Airline Cockpit.

PubMed

Jarvis, Stephen R

2017-12-01

Pilot instrument monitoring has been described as "inadequate," "ineffective," and "insufficient" after multicrew aircraft accidents. Regulators have called for improved instrument monitoring by flight crews, but scientific knowledge in the area is scarce. Research has tended to investigate the monitoring of individual pilots when in the pilot-flying role; very little research has looked at crew monitoring, or that of the "monitoring-pilot" role despite it being half of the apparent problem. Eye-tracking data were collected from 17 properly constituted and current Boeing 737 crews operating in a full motion simulator. Each crew flew four realistic flight segments, with pilots swapping between the pilot-flying and pilot-monitoring roles, with and without the autopilot engaged. Analysis was performed on the 375 maneuvering-segments prior to localizer intercept. Autopilot engagement led to significantly less visual dwell time on the attitude director indicator (mean 212.8-47.8 s for the flying pilot and 58.5-39.8 s for the monitoring-pilot) and an associated increase on the horizontal situation indicator (18-52.5 s and 36.4-50.5 s). The flying-pilots' withdrawal of attention from the primary flight reference and increased attention to the primary navigational reference was paralleled rather than complemented by the monitoring-pilot, suggesting that monitoring vulnerabilities can be duplicated in the flight deck. Therefore it is possible that accident causes identified as "inadequate" or "insufficient" monitoring, are in fact a result of parallel monitoring.Jarvis SR. Concurrent pilot instrument monitoring in the automated multi-crew airline cockpit. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(12):1100-1106.

An Evidence Framework for Off-Patent Pharmaceutical Review (EFOR) for Health Technology Assessment in Emerging Markets.

PubMed

Brixner, Diana; Kaló, Zoltán; Maniadakis, Nikos; Kim, Kyoo; Wijaya, Kalman

2018-03-29

This article introduces an Evidence Framework for Off-Patent Pharmaceutical Review (EFOR), which establishes value-based criteria in a template that manufacturers use to provide evidence showing how their products meet those criteria. Health authorities in emerging markets can then use the evidence presented in the EFOR to evaluate off-patent pharmaceuticals (OPPs) in a consistent, transparent, and evidence-based manner to support policy decisions, including pricing, reimbursement, formulary listing, and drug procurement. A literature search found no multi-criteria evidence framework for evaluating OPPs in emerging markets. An International Outcomes Research Board (IORB) of academia and industry experts conducted extensive research, meetings, and workshops to define high-priority criteria to incorporate into an evidence-based health technology assessment (HTA) tool using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique. The resulting framework was further tailored for country-specific needs in workshops in three emerging countries (Kazakhstan, Vietnam, and Indonesia). The IORB defined nine criteria four categories (Product, Manufacturing, Service, and Value Assessment), which OPP manufacturers can use to provide evidence for reimbursement and health policy decision making. Then the IORB developed the EFOR as a base case document, which can be adapted and used as a template by health authorities in emerging countries. Emerging countries have a significant need for an HTA tool that balances affordability with accurate evidence showing the value differentiation of OPPs. The value attributes in this setting often are different from those in developed markets, which emphasize new products and have high regulation and manufacturing standards. The EFOR is an easy-to-use, adaptable framework that emerging countries can use to increase the consistency, transparency, and effectiveness of drug decision making. The open source EFOR is available as Supplemental Materials. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Patients with environment-related disorders: comprehensive results of interdisciplinary diagnostics.

PubMed

Brand, Serge; Heller, Pia; Bircher, Andreas J; Braun-Fahrleander, Charlotte; Huss, Anke; Niederer, Markus; Schwarzenbach, Simone; Waeber, Roger; Wegmann, Lukas; Kuechenhoff, Joachim

2009-03-01

Researchers dealing with environmental illnesses face complex diagnostic and methodological difficulties. Poor objective findings contrast with high subjective suffering and a firm belief that environmental exposure is the only source of complaints. The Basel pilot research project established a multi-modal assessment procedure and assessed complaints attributed to the environment. Medical, psychological and environmental findings were evaluated as to their pathogenic validity. Furthermore, patients were pooled into distinguishable subgroups in order to formulate more appropriate therapy strategies. Sixty-three patients took part in the threefold diagnostic approach (medical examination, psychiatric exploration, environmental analysis) of a mixed qualitative/quantitative study. Interdisciplinary case conferences allowed a consensus rating of the aetiological relevance of the findings to be reached. The discrepancy between self-rating and experts' judgement was exploited for subgroup formation. About 50% of the patients' symptoms could be attributed to psychiatric causes. Based on self-rating and experts' judgement, four subgroups were distinguished with differing medical, psychiatric and environmental aetiologies, personality traits and interactional competencies. Patients with environment-related disorders form a heterogeneous group. An interdisciplinary assessment and a comparison between self- and experts' judgements enable a more differentiated psychotherapeutic procedure and may enhance future treatment success.

A battery-operated pilot balloon time-signal generator

Treesearch

Ralph H. Moltzau

1966-01-01

Describes the design and construction of a 1-pound, battery-operated, time-signal transmitter, which is usable with portable radio or field telephone circuits for synchronizing multi-theodolite observation of pilot balloons.

Architecture Design of Healthcare Software-as-a-Service Platform for Cloud-Based Clinical Decision Support Service.

PubMed

Oh, Sungyoung; Cha, Jieun; Ji, Myungkyu; Kang, Hyekyung; Kim, Seok; Heo, Eunyoung; Han, Jong Soo; Kang, Hyunggoo; Chae, Hoseok; Hwang, Hee; Yoo, Sooyoung

2015-04-01

To design a cloud computing-based Healthcare Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Platform (HSP) for delivering healthcare information services with low cost, high clinical value, and high usability. We analyzed the architecture requirements of an HSP, including the interface, business services, cloud SaaS, quality attributes, privacy and security, and multi-lingual capacity. For cloud-based SaaS services, we focused on Clinical Decision Service (CDS) content services, basic functional services, and mobile services. Microsoft's Azure cloud computing for Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) was used. The functional and software views of an HSP were designed in a layered architecture. External systems can be interfaced with the HSP using SOAP and REST/JSON. The multi-tenancy model of the HSP was designed as a shared database, with a separate schema for each tenant through a single application, although healthcare data can be physically located on a cloud or in a hospital, depending on regulations. The CDS services were categorized into rule-based services for medications, alert registration services, and knowledge services. We expect that cloud-based HSPs will allow small and mid-sized hospitals, in addition to large-sized hospitals, to adopt information infrastructures and health information technology with low system operation and maintenance costs.

Aeronautical Decision Making for Student and Private Pilots.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-05-01

you learn to gain voluntary control over your body to achieve the relaxation response. In autogenic training , you learn to shut down many bodily...Ahstruct "Aviation accident data indicate that the majority of aircraft mishaps are due to judgment error. This training manual is part of a project to...develop materials and techniques to help improve pilot decision making. Training programs using prototype versions of these materials have

The Voice of the Patient Methodology: A Novel Mixed-Methods Approach to Identifying Treatment Goals for Men with Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Saigal, Christopher S; Lambrechts, Sylvia I; Seenu Srinivasan, V; Dahan, Ely

2017-06-01

Many guidelines advocate the use of shared decision making for men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer. Decision aids can facilitate the process of shared decision making. Implicit in this approach is the idea that physicians understand which elements of treatment matter to patients. Little formal work exists to guide physicians or developers of decision aids in identifying these attributes. We use a mixed-methods technique adapted from marketing science, the 'Voice of the Patient', to describe and identify treatment elements of value for men with localized prostate cancer. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 30 men treated for prostate cancer in the urology clinic of the West Los Angeles Veteran Affairs Medical Center. We used a qualitative analysis to generate themes in patient narratives, and a quantitative approach, agglomerative hierarchical clustering, to identify attributes of treatment that were most relevant to patients making decisions about prostate cancer. We identified five 'traditional' prostate cancer treatment attributes: sexual dysfunction, bowel problems, urinary problems, lifespan, and others' opinions. We further identified two novel treatment attributes: a treatment's ability to validate a sense of proactivity and the need for an incision (separate from risks of surgery). Application of a successful marketing technique, the 'Voice of the Customer', in a clinical setting elicits non-obvious attributes that highlight unique patient decision-making concerns. Use of this method in the development of decision aids may result in more effective decision support.

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: Pilot-point theory, guidelines, and research directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, John E.; Fienen, Michael N.; Hunt, Randall J.

2011-01-01

Pilot points have been used in geophysics and hydrogeology for at least 30 years as a means to bridge the gap between estimating a parameter value in every cell of a model and subdividing models into a small number of homogeneous zones. Pilot points serve as surrogate parameters at which values are estimated in the inverse-modeling process, and their values are interpolated onto the modeling domain in such a way that heterogeneity can be represented at a much lower computational cost than trying to estimate parameters in every cell of a model. Although the use of pilot points is increasingly common, there are few works documenting the mathematical implications of their use and even fewer sources of guidelines for their implementation in hydrogeologic modeling studies. This report describes the mathematics of pilot-point use, provides guidelines for their use in the parameter-estimation software suite (PEST), and outlines several research directions. Two key attributes for pilot-point definitions are highlighted. First, the difference between the information contained in the every-cell parameter field and the surrogate parameter field created using pilot points should be in the realm of parameters which are not informed by the observed data (the null space). Second, the interpolation scheme for projecting pilot-point values onto model cells ideally should be orthogonal. These attributes are informed by the mathematics and have important ramifications for both the guidelines and suggestions for future research.

Availability and feasibility of structured, routine collection of comorbidity data in a colorectal cancer multi-disciplinary team (MDT) setting.

PubMed

Abukar, A A; Ramsanahie, A; Martin-Lumbard, K; Herrington, E R; Winslow, V; Wong, S; Ahmed, S; Thaha, M A

2018-05-03

Availability of comorbidity assessment at multi-disciplinary team (MDT) discussions is cornerstone in making the MDT process more robust and decisive in optimising treatment and improving quality of survivorship. Comorbidity assessments using tools, such as the ACE-27 questionnaire would aid in optimising the decision-making process at MDTs so that treatment decisions can be made without delay. This study determined the availability of comorbidity data in a CRC MDT and the feasibility of routine comorbidity data collection using the validated ACE-27 questionnaire. Secondary aims determined the optimal time and method of collecting comorbidity data. A retrospective mapping exercise (phase I; 6-months) examined the availability of comorbidity data within the MDT. Phase II prospectively collected comorbidity data using ACE-27 for a 3-month period following a short pilot. In phase I, 73/135 (54%) patients had comorbidity data readily available informing the MDT discussion; 62 patients lacked this information. After a review of the patient records, it was clear that 41 of these 62 also had comorbidities and 21 out of the 135 had ≥ 2 major system disorders. Common referral sources to the MDT were surgical outpatient clinics (42%) and the endoscopy unit (13%). The average lead-time from referral to MDT discussion was 14 days. In phase II, an ACE-27 questionnaire was prospectively administered in 50 patients, mean age 54 years (range 20-84). Male: female ratio 26:24. Average time to administer ACE-27 was 4.8 min (range 1-15). The phase I study confirmed the widely acknowledged view of poor comorbidity data availability within a CRC MDT. Phase II demonstrated the feasibility of routinely collecting comorbidity data using ACE-27.

THE USE OF OPERATIONAL MULTI-PILOT LIMITATION (OML) RULE IN MEDICAL CERTIFICATION OF CIVIL PILOTS-WITH CARDIOVASCULAR PATHOLOGIES.

PubMed

Kniga, V V; Kataman, E A; Kuzmina, A Yu

In January 2015, the Russian aviation medical certification boards adopted the rule of medical certification with OML. The review analyzes the first hands-on experience in medical certification with limitations (OML) of pilots with cardiovascular pathologies in compliance with the guidelines of the International Civil Aviation Organization, European requirements, and overviews the Russian practices of pilots' medical certification.

Time Sharing Between Robotics and Process Control: Validating a Model of Attention Switching.

PubMed

Wickens, Christopher Dow; Gutzwiller, Robert S; Vieane, Alex; Clegg, Benjamin A; Sebok, Angelia; Janes, Jess

2016-03-01

The aim of this study was to validate the strategic task overload management (STOM) model that predicts task switching when concurrence is impossible. The STOM model predicts that in overload, tasks will be switched to, to the extent that they are attractive on task attributes of high priority, interest, and salience and low difficulty. But more-difficult tasks are less likely to be switched away from once they are being performed. In Experiment 1, participants performed four tasks of the Multi-Attribute Task Battery and provided task-switching data to inform the role of difficulty and priority. In Experiment 2, participants concurrently performed an environmental control task and a robotic arm simulation. Workload was varied by automation of arm movement and both the phases of environmental control and existence of decision support for fault management. Attention to the two tasks was measured using a head tracker. Experiment 1 revealed the lack of influence of task priority and confirmed the differing roles of task difficulty. In Experiment 2, the percentage attention allocation across the eight conditions was predicted by the STOM model when participants rated the four attributes. Model predictions were compared against empirical data and accounted for over 95% of variance in task allocation. More-difficult tasks were performed longer than easier tasks. Task priority does not influence allocation. The multiattribute decision model provided a good fit to the data. The STOM model is useful for predicting cognitive tunneling given that human-in-the-loop simulation is time-consuming and expensive. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Neural Signatures of Controlled and Automatic Retrieval Processes in Memory-based Decision-making.

PubMed

Khader, Patrick H; Pachur, Thorsten; Weber, Lilian A E; Jost, Kerstin

2016-01-01

Decision-making often requires retrieval from memory. Drawing on the neural ACT-R theory [Anderson, J. R., Fincham, J. M., Qin, Y., & Stocco, A. A central circuit of the mind. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 12, 136-143, 2008] and other neural models of memory, we delineated the neural signatures of two fundamental retrieval aspects during decision-making: automatic and controlled activation of memory representations. To disentangle these processes, we combined a paradigm developed to examine neural correlates of selective and sequential memory retrieval in decision-making with a manipulation of associative fan (i.e., the decision options were associated with one, two, or three attributes). The results show that both the automatic activation of all attributes associated with a decision option and the controlled sequential retrieval of specific attributes can be traced in material-specific brain areas. Moreover, the two facets of memory retrieval were associated with distinct activation patterns within the frontoparietal network: The dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was found to reflect increasing retrieval effort during both automatic and controlled activation of attributes. In contrast, the superior parietal cortex only responded to controlled retrieval, arguably reflecting the sequential updating of attribute information in working memory. This dissociation in activation pattern is consistent with ACT-R and constitutes an important step toward a neural model of the retrieval dynamics involved in memory-based decision-making.

BASIN-SCALE ASSESSMENTS FOR SUSTAINABLE ECOSYSTEMS (BASE)

EPA Science Inventory

The need for multi-media, multi-stressor, and multi-response models for ecological assessment is widely acknowledged. Assessments at this level of complexity have not been conducted, and therefore pilot assessments are required to identify the critical concepts, models, data, and...

Pilot-in-the-Loop Analysis of Propulsive-Only Flight Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Hwei-Lan; Biezad, Daniel J.

1996-01-01

Longitudinal control system architectures are presented which directly couple flight stick motions to throttle commands for a multi-engine aircraft. This coupling enables positive attitude control with complete failure of the flight control system. The architectures chosen vary from simple feedback gains to classical lead-lag compensators with and without prefilters. Each architecture is reviewed for its appropriateness for piloted flight. The control systems are then analyzed with pilot-in-the-loop metrics related to bandwidth required for landing. Results indicate that current and proposed bandwidth requirements should be modified for throttles only flight control. Pilot ratings consistently showed better ratings than predicted by analysis. Recommendations are made for more robust design and implementation. The use of Quantitative Feedback Theory for compensator design is discussed. Although simple and effective augmented control can be achieved in a wide variety of failed configurations, a few configuration characteristics are dominant for pilot-in-the-loop control. These characteristics will be tested in a simulator study involving failed flight controls for a multi-engine aircraft.

The Effects of Stress on Pilot Judgment in a MIDIS Simulator

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-01

stress were relatively independent of problem demands for working memory and knowledge. Keywords: Decision making; Stress psychology; Pilot judgment; Divided attention; Cognitive task analysis ; Flight simulators.

The utility of an online diagnostic decision support system (Isabel) in general practice: a process evaluation.

PubMed

Henderson, Emily J; Rubin, Greg P

2013-05-01

To evaluate the utility of Isabel, an online diagnostic decision support system developed by Isabel Healthcare primarily for secondary medical care, in the general practice setting. Focus groups were conducted with clinicians to understand why and how they used the system. A modified online post-use survey asked practitioners about its impact on their decision-making. Normalization process theory (NPT) was used as a theoretical framework to determine whether the system could be incorporated into routine clinical practice. The system was introduced by NHS County Durham and Darlington in the UK in selected general practices as a three-month pilot. General practitioners and nurse practitioners who had access to Isabel as part of the Primary Care Trust's pilot. General practitioners' views, experiences and usage of the system. Seven general practices agreed to pilot Isabel. Two practices did not subsequently use it. The remaining five practices conducted searches on 16 patients. Post-use surveys (n = 10) indicated that Isabel had little impact on diagnostic decision-making. Focus group participants stated that, although the diagnoses produced by Isabel in general did not have an impact on their decision-making, they would find the tool useful if it were better tailored to the primary care setting. Our analysis concluded that normalization was not likely to occur in its current form. Isabel was of limited utility in this short pilot study and may need further modification for use in general practice.

Voluntariness of consent to HIV clinical research: A conceptual and empirical pilot study.

PubMed

Mamotte, Nicole; Wassenaar, Douglas

2017-09-01

Obtaining voluntary informed consent for research participation is an ethical imperative, yet there appears to be little consensus regarding what constitutes a voluntary consent decision. An instrument to assess influences on participants' consent decision and perceived voluntariness was developed and piloted in two South African HIV clinical trials. The pilot study found high levels of perceived voluntariness. The feeling of having no choice but to participate was significantly associated with lower perceived voluntariness. Overall the data suggest that it is possible to obtain voluntary and valid consent for research participants in ethically complex HIV clinical trials in a developing country context.

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, John M.; Wan, C. Yoon; Vasandani, Vijay

1987-01-01

The current research is focused on detection of human error and protection from its consequences. A program for monitoring pilot error by comparing pilot actions to a script was described. It dealt primarily with routine errors (slips) that occurred during checklist activity. The model to which operator actions were compared was a script. Current research is an extension along these two dimensions. The ORS fault detection aid uses a sophisticated device model rather than a script. The newer initiative, the model-based and constraint-based warning system, uses an even more sophisticated device model and is to prevent all types of error, not just slips or bad decision.

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

2013-04-21

For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making.

XML-based scripting of multimodality image presentations in multidisciplinary clinical conferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratib, Osman M.; Allada, Vivekanand; Dahlbom, Magdalena; Marcus, Phillip; Fine, Ian; Lapstra, Lorelle

2002-05-01

We developed a multi-modality image presentation software for display and analysis of images and related data from different imaging modalities. The software is part of a cardiac image review and presentation platform that supports integration of digital images and data from digital and analog media such as videotapes, analog x-ray films and 35 mm cine films. The software supports standard DICOM image files as well as AVI and PDF data formats. The system is integrated in a digital conferencing room that includes projections of digital and analog sources, remote videoconferencing capabilities, and an electronic whiteboard. The goal of this pilot project is to: 1) develop a new paradigm for image and data management for presentation in a clinically meaningful sequence adapted to case-specific scenarios, 2) design and implement a multi-modality review and conferencing workstation using component technology and customizable 'plug-in' architecture to support complex review and diagnostic tasks applicable to all cardiac imaging modalities and 3) develop an XML-based scripting model of image and data presentation for clinical review and decision making during routine clinical tasks and multidisciplinary clinical conferences.

Deciding how many embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilisation: development and pilot test of a decision aid.

PubMed

van Peperstraten, Arno M; Hermens, Rosella P M G; Nelen, Willianne L D M; Stalmeier, Peep F M; Wetzels, Alex M M; Maas, Pettie H M; Kremer, Jan A M; Grol, Richard P T M

2010-01-01

When deciding how many embryos to transfer during in vitro fertilisation (IVF), clinicians and patients have to balance optimizing the chance of pregnancy against preventing multiple pregnancies and the associated complications. This paper describes the development and pilot test of a patient decision aid (DA) for this purpose. The development of the DA consisted of a literature search, establishment of the format, and a pilot test among IVF patients. The DA development was supervised by a panel of experts in the fields of subfertility, obstetrics and DA-research and it was based on the criteria of the International Patient Decision Aid Standards. One Cochrane review and 34 articles were selected for the DA content. The DA presents information in text, summaries, tables, figures and through an interactive worksheet. The DA was reviewed positively and as acceptable for use in clinical practice by patients and professionals. The DA was thoroughly developed and is likely to be helpful for the decision-making process for the number of embryos transferred after IVF. Physicians and researchers can use the DA without restriction in clinical practice or research related to decision-making.

Identification and Prioritization of Important Attributes of Disease-Modifying Drugs in Decision Making among Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: A Nominal Group Technique and Best-Worst Scaling.

PubMed

Kremer, Ingrid E H; Evers, Silvia M A A; Jongen, Peter J; van der Weijden, Trudy; van de Kolk, Ilona; Hiligsmann, Mickaël

2016-01-01

Understanding the preferences of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) for disease-modifying drugs and involving these patients in clinical decision making can improve the concordance between medical decisions and patient values and may, subsequently, improve adherence to disease-modifying drugs. This study aims first to identify which characteristics-or attributes-of disease-modifying drugs influence patients´ decisions about these treatments and second to quantify the attributes' relative importance among patients. First, three focus groups of relapsing-remitting MS patients were formed to compile a preliminary list of attributes using a nominal group technique. Based on this qualitative research, a survey with several choice tasks (best-worst scaling) was developed to prioritize attributes, asking a larger patient group to choose the most and least important attributes. The attributes' mean relative importance scores (RIS) were calculated. Nineteen patients reported 34 attributes during the focus groups and 185 patients evaluated the importance of the attributes in the survey. The effect on disease progression received the highest RIS (RIS = 9.64, 95% confidence interval: [9.48-9.81]), followed by quality of life (RIS = 9.21 [9.00-9.42]), relapse rate (RIS = 7.76 [7.39-8.13]), severity of side effects (RIS = 7.63 [7.33-7.94]) and relapse severity (RIS = 7.39 [7.06-7.73]). Subgroup analyses showed heterogeneity in preference of patients. For example, side effect-related attributes were statistically more important for patients who had no experience in using disease-modifying drugs compared to experienced patients (p < .001). This study shows that, on average, patients valued effectiveness and unwanted effects as most important. Clinicians should be aware of the average preferences but also that attributes of disease-modifying drugs are valued differently by different patients. Person-centred clinical decision making would be needed and requires eliciting individual preferences.

Attribute Development Using Continuous Stakeholder Engagement to Prioritize Treatment Decisions: A Framework for Patient-Centered Research.

PubMed

dosReis, Susan; Castillo, Wendy Camelo; Ross, Melissa; Fitz-Randolph, Marcy; Vaughn-Lee, Angela; Butler, Beverly

To develop a methodological approach for selecting, validating, and prioritizing attributes for health care decision making. Participants (n = 48) were recruited from community support groups if they had a child aged 26 years or younger diagnosed with a coexisting mental health condition and cognitive impairment. Six in-depth interviews eliciting care management experiences were transcribed and coded into themes following the principles of grounded theory and the constant comparative method. Six focus groups involving 42 participants assessed the relevance, priority, and meaning and inter-relationship among the themes. The positive predictive value and sensitivity assessed agreement on thematic meaning. A final list was selected from the top priorities with good agreement as candidate attributes. Attribute levels reflecting the range of experiences in care management decisions emerged from the verbatim passages within each coded theme. Participants were the child's mother (73%), white (77%), married (69%), and on average 48 years old. The children were on average 14 years old; 44% had an intellectual disability, 25% had autism, and more than half had anxiety or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. All 14 attributes identified from the in-depth interviews were deemed relevant. The positive predictive value exceeded 90%, and the sensitivity ranged from 64% to 89%. The final set of attributes formed the framework for care management decisions consisting of six attributes (medication, behavior, services, social, treatment effects, and school) each with three levels. A systematic approach grounded in qualitative methods produced a framework of relevant, important, and actionable attributes representing competing alternatives in clinical decisions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Stress and Aeronautical Team Decision Making: Strengthening the Weak Links

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

A model that characterizes pilots'decision making in flight will be presented. Elements of the model that appear most vulnerable to stress will be examined in light of accidents and incidents. The model includes two major components: Situation assessment and choice of a course of action. While based on Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision Making, it is tailored to the aviation environment which includes certain features that may be common to other domains: Primarily, aviation is highly proceduralized and options are generally well known. What appears to make decisions difficult are ambiguity, time pressure, and risk. In addition, decisions must often be made while carrying out the standard procedures of flight, including checklists, review of approach plates, standard briefings, and communication with air traffic controllers or cabin crew. The effects of stressors on decision making by pilots with varying levels of expertise will be explored, along with strategies for strengthening the weak links.

Using Arden Syntax for the creation of a multi-patient surveillance dashboard.

PubMed

Kraus, Stefan; Drescher, Caroline; Sedlmayr, Martin; Castellanos, Ixchel; Prokosch, Hans-Ulrich; Toddenroth, Dennis

2015-10-09

Most practically deployed Arden-Syntax-based clinical decision support (CDS) modules process data from individual patients. The specification of Arden Syntax, however, would in principle also support multi-patient CDS. The patient data management system (PDMS) at our local intensive care units does not natively support patient overviews from customizable CDS routines, but local physicians indicated a demand for multi-patient tabular overviews of important clinical parameters such as key laboratory measurements. As our PDMS installation provides Arden Syntax support, we set out to explore the capability of Arden Syntax for multi-patient CDS by implementing a prototypical dashboard for visualizing laboratory findings from patient sets. Our implementation leveraged the object data type, supported by later versions of Arden, which turned out to be serviceable for representing complex input data from several patients. For our prototype, we designed a modularized architecture that separates the definition of technical operations, in particular the control of the patient context, from the actual clinical knowledge. Individual Medical Logic Modules (MLMs) for processing single patient attributes could then be developed according to well-tried Arden Syntax conventions. We successfully implemented a working dashboard prototype entirely in Arden Syntax. The architecture consists of a controller MLM to handle the patient context, a presenter MLM to generate a dashboard view, and a set of traditional MLMs containing the clinical decision logic. Our prototype could be integrated into the graphical user interface of the local PDMS. We observed that with realistic input data the average execution time of about 200ms for generating dashboard views attained applicable performance. Our study demonstrated the general feasibility of creating multi-patient CDS routines in Arden Syntax. We believe that our prototypical dashboard also suggests that such implementations can be relatively easy, and may simultaneously hold promise for sharing dashboards between institutions and reusing elementary components for additional dashboards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GPA and Attribute Framing Effects: Are Better Students More Sensitive or More Susceptible?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunegan, Ken

2010-01-01

Data from 2 studies show students differ in terms of how attribute framing alters perceptions and reactions in a decision-making episode. Using student GPA as a moderator, results from a role-play-decision-making exercise (Experiment 1) show perceptions and intended actions of higher GPA students were more strongly affected by attribute framing…

Integrated seismic stochastic inversion and multi-attributes to delineate reservoir distribution: Case study MZ fields, Central Sumatra Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, A.; Novriyani, M.; Suparno, S.; Hidayat, R.; Riyanto, A.

2017-07-01

This study presents the integration of seismic stochastic inversion and multi-attributes for delineating the reservoir distribution in term of lithology and porosity in the formation within depth interval between the Top Sihapas and Top Pematang. The method that has been used is a stochastic inversion, which is integrated with multi-attribute seismic by applying neural network Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). Stochastic methods are used to predict the probability mapping sandstone as the result of impedance varied with 50 realizations that will produce a good probability. Analysis of Stochastic Seismic Tnversion provides more interpretive because it directly gives the value of the property. Our experiment shows that AT of stochastic inversion provides more diverse uncertainty so that the probability value will be close to the actual values. The produced AT is then used for an input of a multi-attribute analysis, which is used to predict the gamma ray, density and porosity logs. To obtain the number of attributes that are used, stepwise regression algorithm is applied. The results are attributes which are used in the process of PNN. This PNN method is chosen because it has the best correlation of others neural network method. Finally, we interpret the product of the multi-attribute analysis are in the form of pseudo-gamma ray volume, density volume and volume of pseudo-porosity to delineate the reservoir distribution. Our interpretation shows that the structural trap is identified in the southeastern part of study area, which is along the anticline.

Qualitative Development of a Discrete Choice Experiment for Physical Activity Interventions to Improve Knee Osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Pinto, Daniel; Danilovich, Margaret K; Hansen, Paul; Finn, Daniel J; Chang, Rowland W; Holl, Jane L; Heinemann, Allen W; Bockenholt, Ulf

2017-06-01

To describe the qualitative process used to develop attributes and attribute levels for inclusion in a discrete choice experiments (DCE) for older adult physical activity interventions. Five focus groups (n=41) were conducted, grounded in the Health Action Process Approach framework. Discussion emphasized identification and prioritization attributes for a DCE on physical activity. Semi-structured interviews (n=6) investigated attribute levels and lay-language for the DCE. A focus group with physical activity researchers and health care providers was the final stakeholder group used to establish a comprehensive approach for the generation of attributes and levels. A DCE pilot test (n=8) was then conducted with individuals of the target patient population. All transcripts were analyzed using a constant comparative approach. General community and university-based research setting. Volunteers (N=55) aged >45 years with knee pain, aches, or stiffness for at least 1 month over the previous 12 months. Not applicable. Interview guides, attributes, attribute levels, and discrete choice experiment. The most influential identified attributes for physical activity were time, effort, cost, convenience, enjoyment, and health benefits. Each attribute had 3 levels that were understandable in the pilot test of the DCE. The identification of 6 physical activity attributes that are most salient to adults with knee osteoarthritis resulted from a systematic qualitative process, including attribute-ranking exercises. A DCE will provide insight into the relative importance of these attributes for participating in physical activity, which can guide intervention development. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of new farming technologies in Ethiopia using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS).

PubMed

Clarke, Neville; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Dile, Yihun; Worqlul, Abeyou; Osorio, Javier; Herbst, Brian; Richardson, James W; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Gerik, Thomas J; Williams, Jimmy; Jones, Charles A; Jeong, Jaehak

2017-01-31

This study investigates multi-dimensional impacts of adopting new technology in agriculture at the farm/village and watershed scale in sub-Saharan Africa using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS). Application of IDSS as an integrated modeling tool helps solve complex issues in agricultural systems by simultaneously assessing production, environmental, economic, and nutritional consequences of adopting agricultural technologies for sustainable increases in food production and use of scarce natural resources. The IDSS approach was applied to the Amhara region of Ethiopia, where the scarcity of resources and agro-environmental consequences are critical to agricultural productivity of small farm, to analyze the impacts of alternative agricultural technology interventions. Results show significant improvements in family income and nutrition, achieved through the adoption of irrigation technologies, proper use of fertilizer, and improved seed varieties while preserving environmental indicators in terms of soil erosion and sediment loadings. These pilot studies demonstrate the usefulness of the IDSS approach as a tool that can be used to predict and evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of adopting new agricultural technologies that aim to improve the livelihoods of subsistence farmers.

A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Kaveh; Lund, Jay R.

2011-05-01

Game theory provides a useful framework for studying Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems. This paper suggests modeling Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems as strategic games and solving them using non-cooperative game theory concepts. The suggested method can be used to prescribe non-dominated solutions and also can be used as a method to predict the outcome of a decision making problem. Non-cooperative stability definitions for solving the games allow consideration of non-cooperative behaviors, often neglected by other methods which assume perfect cooperation among decision makers. To deal with the uncertainty in input variables a Monte-Carlo Game Theory (MCGT) approach is suggested which maps the stochastic problem into many deterministic strategic games. The games are solved using non-cooperative stability definitions and the results include possible effects of uncertainty in input variables on outcomes. The method can handle multi-criteria multi-decision-maker problems with uncertainty. The suggested method does not require criteria weighting, developing a compound decision objective, and accurate quantitative (cardinal) information as it simplifies the decision analysis by solving problems based on qualitative (ordinal) information, reducing the computational burden substantially. The MCGT method is applied to analyze California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem. The suggested method provides insights, identifies non-dominated alternatives, and predicts likely decision outcomes.

Multi-criteria group decision making for evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs under uncertainty.

PubMed

Wibowo, Santoso; Deng, Hepu

2015-06-01

This paper presents a multi-criteria group decision making approach for effectively evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs under uncertainty in an organization. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used for adequately representing the subjective and imprecise assessments of the decision makers in evaluating the relative importance of evaluation criteria and the performance of individual e-waste recycling programs with respect to individual criteria in a given situation. An interactive fuzzy multi-criteria decision making algorithm is developed for facilitating consensus building in a group decision making environment to ensure that all the interest of individual decision makers have been appropriately considered in evaluating alternative e-waste recycling programs with respect to their corporate sustainability performance. The developed algorithm is then incorporated into a multi-criteria decision support system for making the overall performance evaluation process effectively and simple to use. Such a multi-criteria decision making system adequately provides organizations with a proactive mechanism for incorporating the concept of corporate sustainability into their regular planning decisions and business practices. An example is presented for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed approach in evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs in organizations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development and evaluation of a five-language multi-perspective standardised measure: clinical decision-making involvement and satisfaction (CDIS)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a brief quantitative five-language measure of involvement and satisfaction in clinical decision-making (CDIS) – with versions for patients (CDIS-P) and staff (CDIS-S) – for use in mental health services. Methods An English CDIS was developed by reviewing existing measures, focus groups, semistructured interviews and piloting. Translations into Danish, German, Hungarian and Italian followed the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Task Force principles of good practice for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometricevaluation involved testing the measure in secondary mental health services in Aalborg, Debrecen, London, Naples, Ulm and Zurich. Results After appraising 14 measures, the Control Preference Scale and Satisfaction With Decision-making English-language scales were modified and evaluated in interviews (n = 9), focus groups (n = 22) and piloting (n = 16). Translations were validated through focus groups (n = 38) and piloting (n = 61). A total of 443 service users and 403 paired staff completed CDIS. The Satisfaction sub-scale had internal consistency of 0.89 (0.86-0.89 after item-level deletion) for staff and 0.90 (0.87-0.90) for service users, both continuous and categorical (utility) versions were associated with symptomatology and both staff-rated and service userrated therapeutic alliance (showing convergent validity), and not with social disability (showing divergent validity), and satisfaction predicted staff-rated (OR 2.43, 95%CI 1.54- 3.83 continuous, OR 5.77, 95%CI 1.90-17.53 utility) and service user-rated (OR 2.21, 95%CI 1.51-3.23 continuous, OR 3.13, 95%CI 1.10-8.94 utility) decision implementation two months later. The Involvement sub-scale had appropriate distribution and no floor or ceiling effects, was associated with stage of recovery, functioning and quality of life (staff only) (showing convergent validity), and not with symptomatology or social disability (showing divergent validity), and staff-rated passive involvement by the service user predicted implementation (OR 3.55, 95%CI 1.53-8.24). Relationships remained after adjusting for clustering by staff. Conclusions CDIS demonstrates adequate internal consistency, no evidence of item redundancy, appropriate distribution, and face, content, convergent, divergent and predictive validity. It can be recommended for research and clinical use. CDIS-P and CDIS-S in all 3 five languages can be downloaded at http://www.cedar-net.eu/instruments. Trial registration ISRCTN75841675. PMID:25066212

A fuzzy model for achieving lean attributes for competitive advantages development using AHP-QFD-PROMETHEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roghanian, E.; Alipour, Mohammad

2014-06-01

Lean production has become an integral part of the manufacturing landscape as its link with superior performance and its ability to provide competitive advantage is well accepted among academics and practitioners. Lean production helps producers in overcoming the challenges organizations face through using powerful tools and enablers. However, most companies are faced with restricted resources such as financial and human resources, time, etc., in using these enablers, and are not capable of implementing all these techniques. Therefore, identifying and selecting the most appropriate and efficient tool can be a significant challenge for many companies. Hence, this literature seeks to combine competitive advantages, lean attributes, and lean enablers to determine the most appropriate enablers for improvement of lean attributes. Quality function deployment in fuzzy environment and house of quality matrix are implemented. Throughout the methodology, fuzzy logic is the basis for translating linguistic judgments required for the relationships and correlation matrix to numerical values. Moreover, for final ranking of lean enablers, a multi-criteria decision-making method (PROMETHEE) is adopted. Finally, a case study in automotive industry is presented to illustrate the implementation of the proposed methodology.

Network-centric decision architecture for financial or 1/f data models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Holger M.; Handley, James W.; Massey, Stoney; Case, Carl T.; Songy, Claude G.

2002-12-01

This paper presents a decision architecture algorithm for training neural equation based networks to make autonomous multi-goal oriented, multi-class decisions. These architectures make decisions based on their individual goals and draw from the same network centric feature set. Traditionally, these architectures are comprised of neural networks that offer marginal performance due to lack of convergence of the training set. We present an approach for autonomously extracting sample points as I/O exemplars for generation of multi-branch, multi-node decision architectures populated by adaptively derived neural equations. To test the robustness of this architecture, open source data sets in the form of financial time series were used, requiring a three-class decision space analogous to the lethal, non-lethal, and clutter discrimination problem. This algorithm and the results of its application are presented here.

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

Efficiently Multi-User Searchable Encryption Scheme with Attribute Revocation and Grant for Cloud Storage

PubMed Central

Wang, Shangping; Zhang, Xiaoxue; Zhang, Yaling

2016-01-01

Cipher-policy attribute-based encryption (CP-ABE) focus on the problem of access control, and keyword-based searchable encryption scheme focus on the problem of finding the files that the user interested in the cloud storage quickly. To design a searchable and attribute-based encryption scheme is a new challenge. In this paper, we propose an efficiently multi-user searchable attribute-based encryption scheme with attribute revocation and grant for cloud storage. In the new scheme the attribute revocation and grant processes of users are delegated to proxy server. Our scheme supports multi attribute are revoked and granted simultaneously. Moreover, the keyword searchable function is achieved in our proposed scheme. The security of our proposed scheme is reduced to the bilinear Diffie-Hellman (BDH) assumption. Furthermore, the scheme is proven to be secure under the security model of indistinguishability against selective ciphertext-policy and chosen plaintext attack (IND-sCP-CPA). And our scheme is also of semantic security under indistinguishability against chosen keyword attack (IND-CKA) in the random oracle model. PMID:27898703

Efficiently Multi-User Searchable Encryption Scheme with Attribute Revocation and Grant for Cloud Storage.

PubMed

Wang, Shangping; Zhang, Xiaoxue; Zhang, Yaling

2016-01-01

Cipher-policy attribute-based encryption (CP-ABE) focus on the problem of access control, and keyword-based searchable encryption scheme focus on the problem of finding the files that the user interested in the cloud storage quickly. To design a searchable and attribute-based encryption scheme is a new challenge. In this paper, we propose an efficiently multi-user searchable attribute-based encryption scheme with attribute revocation and grant for cloud storage. In the new scheme the attribute revocation and grant processes of users are delegated to proxy server. Our scheme supports multi attribute are revoked and granted simultaneously. Moreover, the keyword searchable function is achieved in our proposed scheme. The security of our proposed scheme is reduced to the bilinear Diffie-Hellman (BDH) assumption. Furthermore, the scheme is proven to be secure under the security model of indistinguishability against selective ciphertext-policy and chosen plaintext attack (IND-sCP-CPA). And our scheme is also of semantic security under indistinguishability against chosen keyword attack (IND-CKA) in the random oracle model.

Implementation of shared decision-making in oncology: development and pilot study of a nurse-led decision-coaching programme for women with ductal carcinoma in situ.

PubMed

Berger-Höger, Birte; Liethmann, Katrin; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Steckelberg, Anke

2017-12-06

To implement informed shared decision-making (ISDM) in breast care centres, we developed and piloted an inter-professional complex intervention. We developed an intervention consisting of three components: an evidence-based patient decision aid (DA) for women with ductal carcinoma in situ, a decision-coaching led by specialised nurses (breast care nurses and oncology nurses) and structured physician encounters. In order to enable professionals to gain ISDM competencies, we developed and tested a curriculum-based training programme for specialised nurses and a workshop for physicians. After successful testing of the components, we conducted a pilot study to test the feasibility of the entire revised intervention in two breast care centres. Here the acceptance of the intervention by women and professionals, the applicability to the breast care centres' procedures, women's knowledge, patient involvement in treatment decision-making assessed with the MAPPIN'SDM-observer instrument MAPPIN'O dyad, and barriers to and facilitators of the implementation were taken into consideration. We used questionnaires, structured verbal and written feedback and video recordings. Qualitative data were analysed descriptively, and mean values and ranges of quantitative data were calculated. To test the DA, focus groups and individual interviews were conducted with 27 women. Six expert reviews were obtained. The components of the nurse training were tested with 18 specialised nurses and 19 health science students. The development and piloting of the components were successful. The pilot test of the entire intervention included seven patients. In general, the intervention is applicable. Patients attained adequate knowledge (range of correct answers: 9-11 of 11). On average, a basic level of patient involvement in treatment decision-making was observed for nurses and patient-nurse dyads (M(MAPPIN-O dyad ): 2.15 and M(MAPPIN-O nurse ): 1.90). Relevant barriers were identified; physicians barely tolerated women's preferences that were not in line with the medical recommendation. Classifying women as inappropriate for ISDM due to age or education led physicians to neglect eligible women during the recruitment phase. Decision-coaching is feasible. Nevertheless, there are some indications that structural changes are needed for long-term implementation. We are currently evaluating the intervention in a cluster randomised controlled trial in 16 breast care centres.

A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

2009-11-01

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

A comparative approach for ranking contaminated sites based on the risk assessment paradigm using fuzzy PROMETHEE.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

2009-11-01

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

Lawyers' attitudes toward involuntary treatment.

PubMed

Luchins, Daniel J; Cooper, Amy E; Hanrahan, Patricia; Heyrman, Mark J

2006-01-01

This study examined whether lawyers' attributions of responsibility for mental illnesses affect their decisions about involuntary treatment. A survey that was mailed in 2003 to Illinois lawyers involved in involuntary commitment elicited recommendations for involuntary treatment for characters presented in vignettes. The survey also sought respondents' attributions of personal responsibility for the onset and recurrence of mental illnesses. A total of 89 lawyers responded to the survey, a response rate of 48 percent. Decisions to hospitalize persons with mental illness involuntarily increased significantly with the level of risk of harm and were significantly related to attributions of responsibility for the recurrence of mental illness. Decisions to recommend involuntary medication were not related to attributions of responsibility.

Consistency of Pilot Trainee Cognitive Ability, Personality, and Training Performance in Undergraduate Pilot Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-09

multivariate correction method (Lawley, 1943) was used for all scores except the MAB FSIQ which used the univariate ( Thorndike , 1949) method. FSIQ... Thorndike , R. L. (1949). Personnel selection. NY: Wiley. Tupes, E. C., & Christal, R. C. (1961). Recurrent personality factors based on trait ratings... Thorndike , 1949). aThe correlations for 1995 were not corrected due to the small sample size (N = 17). *p< .05 Consistency of Pilot Attributes

Age and Expertise Effects in Aviation Decision Making and Flight Control in a Flight Simulator

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Quinn; Taylor, Joy L.; Reade, Gordon; Yesavage, Jerome A.

2010-01-01

Introduction Age (due to declines in cognitive abilities necessary for navigation) and level of aviation expertise are two factors that may affect aviation performance and decision making under adverse weather conditions. We examined the roles of age, expertise, and their relationship on aviation decision making and flight control performance during a flight simulator task. Methods Seventy-two IFR-rated general aviators, aged 19–79 yr, made multiple approach, holding pattern entry, and landing decisions while navigating under Instrument Flight Rules weather conditions. Over three trials in which the fog level varied, subjects decided whether or not to land the aircraft. They also completed two holding pattern entries. Subjects’ flight control during approaches and holding patterns was measured. Results Older pilots (41+ yr) were more likely than younger pilots to land when visibility was inadequate (older pilots’ mean false alarm rate: 0.44 vs 0.25). They also showed less precise flight control for components of the approach, performing 0.16 SD below mean approach scores. Expertise attenuated an age-related decline in flight control during holding patterns: older IFR/CFI performed 0.73 SD below mean score; younger IFR/CFI, younger CFII/ATP, older CFII/ATP: 0.32, 0.26, 0.03 SD above mean score. Additionally, pilots with faster processing speed (by median split) had a higher mean landing decision false alarm rate (0.42 vs 0.28), yet performed 0.14 SD above the mean approach control score. Conclusions Results have implications regarding specialized training for older pilots and for understanding processes involved in older adults’ real world decision making and performance. PMID:20464816

Decision support for risk prioritisation of environmental health hazards in a UK city.

PubMed

Woods, Mae; Crabbe, Helen; Close, Rebecca; Studden, Mike; Milojevic, Ai; Leonardi, Giovanni; Fletcher, Tony; Chalabi, Zaid

2016-03-08

There is increasing appreciation of the proportion of the health burden that is attributed to modifiable population exposure to environmental health hazards. To manage this avoidable burden in the United Kingdom (UK), government policies and interventions are implemented. In practice, this procedure is interdisciplinary in action and multi-dimensional in context. Here, we demonstrate how Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate priority setting for environmental public health interventions within local authorities. We combine modelling and expert elicitation to gather evidence on the impacts and ranking of interventions. To present the methodology, we consider a hypothetical scenario in a UK city. We use MCDA to evaluate and compare the impact of interventions to reduce the health burden associated with four environmental health hazards and rank them in terms of their overall performance across several criteria. For illustrative purposes, we focus on heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution, remediation to control levels of indoor radon, carbon monoxide and fitting alarms, and encouraging cycling to target the obesogenic environment. Regional data was included as model evidence to construct a ratings matrix for the city. When MCDA is performed with uniform weights, the intervention of heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution is ranked the highest. Cycling and the obesogenic environment is ranked second. We argue that a MCDA based approach provides a framework to guide environmental public health decision makers. This is demonstrated through an online interactive MCDA tool. We conclude that MCDA is a transparent tool that can be used to compare the impact of alternative interventions on a set of pre-defined criteria. In our illustrative example, we ranked the best intervention across the equally weighted selected criteria out of the four alternatives. Further work is needed to test the tool with decision makers and stakeholders.

Multi-disciplinary team meetings in stroke rehabilitation: an observation study and conceptual framework.

PubMed

Tyson, S F; Burton, L; McGovern, A

2014-12-01

To explore how multi-disciplinary team meetings operate in stroke rehabilitation. Non-participant observation of multi-disciplinary team meetings and semi-structured interviews with attending staff. Twelve meetings were observed (at least one at each site) and 18 staff (one psychologist, one social worker; four nurses; four physiotherapists four occupational therapists, two speech and language therapists, one stroke co-ordinator and one stroke ward manager) were interviewed in eight in-patient stroke rehabilitation units. Multi-disciplinary team meetings in stroke rehabilitation were complex, demanding and highly varied. A model emerged which identified the main inputs to influence conduct of the meetings were personal contributions of the members and structure and format of the meetings. These were mediated by the team climate and leadership skills of the chair. The desired outputs; clinical decisions and the attributes of apparently effective meetings were identified by the staff. A notable difference between the meetings that staff considered effective and those that were not, was their structure and format. Successful meetings tended to feature a set agenda, structured documentation; formal use of measurement tools; pre-meeting preparation and skilled chairing. These features were often absent in meetings perceived to be ineffective. The main features of operation of multi-disciplinary team meetings have been identified which will enable assessment tools and interventions to improve effectiveness to be developed. © The Author(s) 2014.

INVENTORY AND ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE SENSITIVE DECISIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The project will create a pilot inventory of climate-sensitive resource managment decision. The project will develop and demonstrate a new approach to collecting systematic information about the context and characteristics of climate-sensitive decisions and using this informatio...

Coalbed-methane pilots - timing, design, and analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roadifer, R.D.; Moore, T.R.

2009-10-15

Four distinct sequential phases form a recommended process for coalbed-methane (CBM)-prospect assessment: initial screening reconnaissance, pilot testing, and final appraisal. Stepping through these four phases provides a program of progressively ramping work and cost, while creating a series of discrete decision points at which analysis of results and risks can be assessed. While discussing each of these phases in some degree, this paper focuses on the third, the critically important pilot-testing phase. This paper contains roughly 30 specific recommendations and the fundamental rationale behind each recommendation to help ensure that a CBM pilot will fulfill its primary objectives of (1)more » demonstrating whether the subject coal reservoir will desorb and produce consequential gas and (2) gathering the data critical to evaluate and risk the prospect at the next-often most critical-decision point.« less

Patients' Preferences for the Treatment of Metastatic Castrate-resistant Prostate Cancer: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

PubMed

Eliasson, Lina; de Freitas, Hayley M; Dearden, Lindsay; Calimlim, Brian; Lloyd, Andrew J

2017-04-01

Patient treatment preferences are increasingly being used to inform health care decision making. This discrete choice experiment assessed how men perceive the risks and benefits of hypothetical treatment options for metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Treatment attributes for inclusion were identified through a review of the literature and product labels. Expert interviews confirmed clinical appropriateness and patient relevance of the attributes, which included effectiveness (delay in months before chemotherapy), steroid use, possible drug interactions (additional hospital visits for monitoring), fogginess (effects on cognition and memory), fatigue (extreme tiredness), food restrictions, and bone pain. Following a pilot, the final discrete choice experiment included 18 choice sets presenting treatments for mCRPC and was completed by men with mCRPC in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Data were analyzed using a conditional logit model, with odds ratios (ORs) used to indicate preference for attributes, and tradeoff measures (TOM) were estimated using the ratio of coefficients. Within each attribute category and with all other factors being equal, participants (N = 285) indicated a strong preference for treatments that fully control bone pain (OR = 12.069 [95% CI, 10.555-13.800]) and for treatments that delay chemotherapy (OR, 1.727 [95% CI, 1.548-1.927]). They also preferred treatments that were associated with the lowest risk of fogginess (OR, 2.115 [95% CI, 1.849-2.420]), a lower risk of fatigue (OR, 1.365 [95% CI 1.219-1.528]), and fewer additional hospital visits (OR, 1.245 [95% CI 1.111-1.397]) than the respective reference categories. Participants preferred to use steroids under advice from a physician (OR, 1.275 [95% CI 1.132-1.437]). Food restrictions related to taking medication were not a significant concern for participants. TOM results indicated that large tradeoffs in effectiveness, fogginess, and fatigue are required for patients to prefer a treatment with uncontrolled bone pain that is very difficult to live with. Men with mCRPC consider a wide range of factors when making decisions regarding their treatment. They showed a strong preference for treatment associated with better control of bone pain. They also placed value on treatments that could delay the need for chemotherapy, and they preferred to avoid side effects such as cognition and memory loss, and extreme tiredness. TOMs highlighted the importance of symptom control, even compared with potential side effects. An understanding of the degree to which patients value the attributes associated with various treatment options will assist clinicians and health care professionals when making decisions regarding the management of men with mCRPC. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Leadership for health improvement--implementation and evaluation.

PubMed

Carr, Susan M; Carr, Sue; Lhussier, Monique; Reynolds, Joanna; Hunter, David J; Hannaway, Catherine

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a co-authored reflection on the health improvement leadership development programme and the key evaluation messages derived from piloting in an English National Health Service region. It highlights the specific attributes of this approach to health improvement leadership development and clarifies health improvement development issues. Appreciative inquiry and soft systems methodology are combined in an evaluation approach designed to capture individual as well as organisation learning and how it impacts on leadership in specific contexts. The evaluation exposes the health improvement leadership needs of a multi-organisation cohort, offers some explanations for successful achievement of learning needs while also exposing of the challenges and paradoxes faced in this endeavour. There are limited reported templates of how to develop leadership for health improvement. This paper details a whole systems approach, acknowledging the impact of context on leadership and an approach to evaluating such complex initiatives.

Modulation format identification aided hitless flexible coherent transceiver.

PubMed

Xiang, Meng; Zhuge, Qunbi; Qiu, Meng; Zhou, Xingyu; Zhang, Fangyuan; Tang, Ming; Liu, Deming; Fu, Songnian; Plant, David V

2016-07-11

We propose a hitless flexible coherent transceiver enabled by a novel modulation format identification (MFI) scheme for dynamic agile optical networks. The modulation format transparent digital signal processing (DSP) is realized by a block-wise decision-directed least-mean-square (DD-LMS) equalizer for channel tracking, and a pilot symbol aided superscalar phase locked loop (PLL) for carrier phase estimation (CPE). For the MFI, the modulation format information is encoded onto the pilot symbols initially used for CPE. Therefore, the proposed MFI method does not require extra overhead. Moreover, it can identify arbitrary modulation formats including multi-dimensional formats, and it enables tracking of the format change for short data blocks. The performance of the proposed hitless flexible coherent transceiver is successfully evaluated with five modulation formats including QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM, Hybrid QPSK/8QAM and set-partitioning (SP)-512-QAM. We show that the proposed MFI method induces a negligible performance penalty. Moreover, we experimentally demonstrate that such a hitless transceiver can adapt to fast block-by-block modulation format switching. Finally, the performance improvement of the proposed MFI method is experimentally verified with respect to other commonly used MFI methods.

User type certification for advanced flight control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilson, Richard D.; Abbott, David W.

1994-01-01

Advanced avionics through flight management systems (FMS) coupled with autopilots can now precisely control aircraft from takeoff to landing. Clearly, this has been the most important improvement in aircraft since the jet engine. Regardless of the eventual capabilities of this technology, it is doubtful that society will soon accept pilotless airliners with the same aplomb they accept driverless passenger trains. Flight crews are still needed to deal with inputing clearances, taxiing, in-flight rerouting, unexpected weather decisions, and emergencies; yet it is well known that the contribution of human errors far exceed those of current hardware or software systems. Thus human errors remain, and are even increasing in percentage as the largest contributor to total system error. Currently, the flight crew is regulated by a layered system of certification: by operation, e.g., airline transport pilot versus private pilot; by category, e.g., airplane versus helicopter; by class, e.g., single engine land versus multi-engine land; and by type (for larger aircraft and jet powered aircraft), e.g., Boeing 767 or Airbus A320. Nothing in the certification process now requires an in-depth proficiency with specific types of avionics systems despite their prominent role in aircraft control and guidance.

Automation bias: decision making and performance in high-tech cockpits.

PubMed

Mosier, K L; Skitka, L J; Heers, S; Burdick, M

1997-01-01

Automated aids and decision support tools are rapidly becoming indispensable tools in high-technology cockpits and are assuming increasing control of"cognitive" flight tasks, such as calculating fuel-efficient routes, navigating, or detecting and diagnosing system malfunctions and abnormalities. This study was designed to investigate automation bias, a recently documented factor in the use of automated aids and decision support systems. The term refers to omission and commission errors resulting from the use of automated cues as a heuristic replacement for vigilant information seeking and processing. Glass-cockpit pilots flew flight scenarios involving automation events or opportunities for automation-related omission and commission errors. Although experimentally manipulated accountability demands did not significantly impact performance, post hoc analyses revealed that those pilots who reported an internalized perception of "accountability" for their performance and strategies of interaction with the automation were significantly more likely to double-check automated functioning against other cues and less likely to commit errors than those who did not share this perception. Pilots were also lilkely to erroneously "remember" the presence of expected cues when describing their decision-making processes.

Comparison of potential method in analytic hierarchy process for multi-attribute of catering service companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamat, Siti Salwana; Ahmad, Tahir; Awang, Siti Rahmah

2017-08-01

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a method used in structuring, measuring and synthesizing criteria, in particular ranking of multiple criteria in decision making problems. On the other hand, Potential Method is a ranking procedure in which utilizes preference graph ς (V, A). Two nodes are adjacent if they are compared in a pairwise comparison whereby the assigned arc is oriented towards the more preferred node. In this paper Potential Method is used to solve problem on a catering service selection. The comparison of result by using Potential method is made with Extent Analysis. The Potential Method is found to produce the same rank as Extent Analysis in AHP.

Opportunities to improve the value of outpatient surgical care.

PubMed

Erhun, Feryal; Malcolm, Elizabeth; Kalani, Maziyar; Brayton, Kimberly; Nguyen, Christine; Asch, Steven M; Platchek, Terry; Milstein, Arnold

2016-09-01

Nearly 57 million outpatient surgeries-invasive procedures performed on an outpatient basis in hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs) or ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs)-produced annually in the United States account for roughly 7% of healthcare expenditures. Although moving inpatient surgeries to outpatient settings has lowered the cost of care, substantial opportunities to improve the value of outpatient surgery remain. To exploit these remaining opportunities, we composed an evidence-based care delivery composite for national discussion and pilot testing. Evidence-based care delivery composite. We synthesized peer-reviewed publications describing efforts to improve the value of outpatient surgical care, interviewed patients and clinicians to understand their most deeply felt discontents, reviewed potentially relevant emerging science and technology, and observed surgeries at healthcare organizations nominated by researchers as exemplars of efficiency and effectiveness. Primed by this information, we iterated potential new designs utilizing criticism from practicing clinicians, health services researchers, and healthcare managers. We found that 3 opportunities are most likely to improve value: 1) maximizing the appropriate use of surgeries via decision aids, clinical decision support, and a remote surgical coach for physicians considering a surgical referral; 2) safely shifting surgeries from HOPDs to high-volume, multi-specialty ASCs where costs are much lower; and 3) standardizing processes in ASCs from referral to recovery. Extrapolation based on published studies of the effects of each component suggests that the proposed 3-part composite may lower annual national outpatient surgical spending by as much as one-fifth, while maintaining or improving outcomes and the care experience for patients and clinicians. Pilot testing and evaluation will allow refinement of this composite.

Reasons for adherence and nonadherence: a pilot study comparing first- and multi-episode schizophrenia patients.

PubMed

Sapra, Mamta; Weiden, Peter J; Schooler, Nina R; Sunakawa-McMillan, Ayako; Uzenoff, Sarah; Burkholder, Page

2014-01-01

Most first-episode schizophrenia patients will stop their medication after their acute symptoms improve. Understanding the salient motivations and attitudes that drive adherence--as well as nonadherence--is an important part of developing strategies to prevent or delay nonadherence during the early phases of the illness. Self-reported reasons for adherence and nonadherence among first-episode and multi-episode patients with schizophrenia were obtained from cross-sectional adherence interviews from two prospective adherence studies: one composed of a first-episode sample (n=33) and the other with recently relapsing multi-episode patients (n=16). Both groups received the Rating of Medication Influences (ROMI) Scale at approximately 16 to 20 weeks after an acute psychotic episode. The specific ROMI items were ranked in order of percentage (%) strong, and were compared both within each patient group for rank order of importance, and also compared between groups to determine the differences in specific adherence and nonadherence influences. The doctor-patient relationship was more likely to be endorsed as a strong adherence influence in the first-episode sample (74%) than in the multi-episode sample (13%, X²=18.07, p<.01). Change in physical appearance attributed to medication was a more commonly endorsed nonadherence influence for the multi-episode sample (25%) relative to the first-episode sample (0%, X²=9.2, p<.01). The doctor-patient relationship stands out as being the major reason for ongoing adherence for first-episode schizophrenia patients. Our post hoc interpretation is that lack of prior experience with medication and treatment elevates the importance of the relationship with the treating clinician for first-episode patients.

Research on Attribute Reduction in Hoisting Motor State Recognition of Quayside Container Crane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Tang, G.; Hu, X.

2017-07-01

In view of too many attributes in hoisting motor state recognition of quayside container crane. Attribute reduction method based on discernibility matrix is introduced to attribute reduction of lifting motor state information table. A method of attribute reduction based on the combination of rough set and genetic algorithm is proposed to deal with the hoisting motor state decision table. Under the condition that the information system's decision-making ability is unchanged, the redundant attribute is deleted. Which reduces the complexity and computation of the recognition process of the hoisting motor. It is possible to realize the fast state recognition.

Allometric constraints to inversion of canopy structure from remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, A.; Berry, J. A.; Asner, G. P.

2008-12-01

Canopy radiative transfer models employ a large number of vegetation architectural and leaf biochemical attributes. Studies of leaf biochemistry show a wide array of chemical and spectral diversity that suggests that several leaf biochemical constituents can be independently retrieved from multi-spectral remotely sensed imagery. In contrast, attempts to exploit multi-angle imagery to retrieve canopy structure only succeed in finding two or three of the many unknown canopy arhitectural attributes. We examine a database of over 5000 destructive tree harvests from Eurasia to show that allometry - the covariation of plant form across a broad range of plant size and canopy density - restricts the architectural diversity of plant canopies into a single composite variable ranging from young canopies with many short trees with small crowns to older canopies with fewer trees and larger crowns. Moreover, these architectural attributes are closely linked to biomass via allometric constraints such as the "self-thinning law". We use the measured variance and covariance of plant canopy architecture in these stands to drive the radiative transfer model DISORD, which employs the Li-Strahler geometric optics model. This correlations introduced in the Monte Carlo study are used to determine which attributes of canopy architecture lead to important variation that can be observed by multi-angle or multi-spectral satellite observations, using the sun-view geometry characteristic of MODIS observations in different biomes located at different latitude bands. We conclude that although multi-angle/multi-spectral remote sensing is only sensitive to some of the many unknown canopy attributes that ecologists would wish to know, the strong allometric covariation between these attributes and others permits a large number of inferrences, such as forest biomass, that will be meaningful next-generation vegetation products useful for data assimilation.

Coupling a distributed hydrological model with detailed forest structural information for large-scale global change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Majasalmi, Titta; Bright, Ryan; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Forests are recognized for their decisive effect on landscape water balance with structural forest characteristics as stand density or species composition determining energy partitioning and dominant flow paths. However, spatial and temporal variability in forest structure is often poorly represented in hydrological modeling frameworks, in particular in regional to large scale hydrological modeling and impact analysis. As a common practice, prescribed land cover classes (including different generic forest types) are linked to parameter values derived from literature, or parameters are determined by calibration. While national forest inventory (NFI) data provide comprehensive, detailed information on hydrologically relevant forest characteristics, their potential to inform hydrological simulation over larger spatial domains is rarely exploited. In this study we present a modeling framework that couples the distributed hydrological model HBV with forest structural information derived from the Norwegian NFI and multi-source remote sensing data. The modeling framework, set up for the entire of continental Norway at 1 km spatial resolution, is explicitly designed to study the combined and isolated impacts of climate change, forest management and land use change on hydrological fluxes. We use a forest classification system based on forest structure rather than biomes which allows to implicitly account for impacts of forest management on forest structural attributes. In the hydrological model, different forest classes are represented by three parameters: leaf area index (LAI), mean tree height and surface albedo. Seasonal cycles of LAI and surface albedo are dynamically simulated to make the framework applicable under climate change conditions. Based on a hindcast for the pilot regions Nord-Trøndelag and Sør-Trøndelag, we show how forest management has affected regional hydrological fluxes during the second half of the 20th century as contrasted to climate variability.

Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaal, Peter M. T.; Sweet, Barbara T.

2012-01-01

Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

Effects of additional team-based learning on students' clinical reasoning skills: a pilot study.

PubMed

Jost, Meike; Brüstle, Peter; Giesler, Marianne; Rijntjes, Michel; Brich, Jochen

2017-07-14

In the field of Neurology good clinical reasoning skills are essential for successful diagnosing and treatment. Team-based learning (TBL), an active learning and small group instructional strategy, is a promising method for fostering these skills. The aim of this pilot study was to examine the effects of a supplementary TBL-class on students' clinical decision-making skills. Fourth- and fifth-year medical students participated in this pilot study (static-group comparison design). The non-treatment group (n = 15) did not receive any additional training beyond regular teaching in the neurology course. The treatment group (n = 11) took part in a supplementary TBL-class optimized for teaching clinical reasoning in addition to the regular teaching in the neurology course. Clinical decision making skills were assessed using a key-feature problem examination. Factual and conceptual knowledge was assessed by a multiple-choice question examination. The TBL-group performed significantly better than the non-TBL-group (p = 0.026) in the key-feature problem examination. No significant differences between the results of the multiple-choice question examination of both groups were found. In this pilot study participants of a supplementary TBL-class significantly improved clinical decision-making skills, indicating that TBL may be an appropriate method for teaching clinical decision making in neurology. Further research is needed for replication in larger groups and other clinical fields.

Rooftop greenhouses in educational centers: A sustainability assessment of urban agriculture in compact cities.

PubMed

Nadal, Ana; Pons, Oriol; Cuerva, Eva; Rieradevall, Joan; Josa, Alejandro

2018-06-01

Today, urban agriculture is one of the most widely used sustainability strategies to improve the metabolism of a city. Schools can play an important role in the implementation of sustainability master plans, due their socio-educational activities and their cohesive links with families; all key elements in the development of urban agriculture. Thus, the main objective of this research is to develop a procedure, in compact cities, to assess the potential installation of rooftop greenhouses (RTGs) in schools. The generation of a dynamic assessment tool capable of identifying and prioritizing schools with a high potential for RTGs and their eventual implementation would also represent a significant factor in the environmental, social, and nutritional education of younger generations. The methodology has four-stages (Pre-selection criteria; Selection of necessities; Sustainability analysis; and Sensitivity analysis and selection of the best alternative) in which economic, environmental, social and governance aspects all are considered. It makes use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory and Multi-Criteria Decision Making, through the Integrated Value Model for Sustainability Assessments and the participation of two panels of multidisciplinary specialists, for the preparation of a unified sustainability index that guarantees the objectivity of the selection process. This methodology has been applied and validated in a case study of 11 schools in Barcelona (Spain). The social perspective of the proposed methodology favored the school in the case-study with the most staff and the largest parent-teacher association (social and governance indicators) that obtained the highest sustainability index (S11); at a considerable distance (45%) from the worst case (S3) with fewer school staff and parental support. Finally, objective decisions may be taken with the assistance of this appropriate, adaptable, and reliable Multi-Criteria Decision-Making tool on the vertical integration and implementation of urban agriculture in schools, in support of the goals of sustainable development and the circular economy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-Axis Test Facility

NASA Image and Video Library

1959-11-01

Multi-Axis Test Facility, Space Progress Report, November 1, 1959: The Multi Axis Space Test Inertia Facility [MASTIF], informally referred to as the Gimbal Rig, was installed inside the Altitude Wind Tunnel. The rig, which spun on three axis simultaneously, was used to train the Mercury astronauts on how to bring a spinning spacecraft under control and to determine the effects of rapid spinning on the astronaut's eyesight and psyche. Small gaseous nitrogen jets were operated by the pilot to gain control of the rig after it had been set in motion. Part 1 shows pilot Joe Algranti in the rig as it rotates over one, two, and three axis. It also has overall views of the test set-up with researchers and technicians on the test platform. Part 2 shows Algranti being secured in the rig prior to the test. The rig is set in motion and the pilot slowly brings it under control. The Mercury astronauts trained on the MASTIF in early spring of 1960.

Processing Technology Selection for Municipal Sewage Treatment Based on a Multi-Objective Decision Model under Uncertainty.

PubMed

Chen, Xudong; Xu, Zhongwen; Yao, Liming; Ma, Ning

2018-03-05

This study considers the two factors of environmental protection and economic benefits to address municipal sewage treatment. Based on considerations regarding the sewage treatment plant construction site, processing technology, capital investment, operation costs, water pollutant emissions, water quality and other indicators, we establish a general multi-objective decision model for optimizing municipal sewage treatment plant construction. Using the construction of a sewage treatment plant in a suburb of Chengdu as an example, this paper tests the general model of multi-objective decision-making for the sewage treatment plant construction by implementing a genetic algorithm. The results show the applicability and effectiveness of the multi-objective decision model for the sewage treatment plant. This paper provides decision and technical support for the optimization of municipal sewage treatment.

Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

PubMed

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

Preferences of colorectal cancer patients for treatment and decision-making: a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Damm, K; Vogel, A; Prenzler, A

2014-11-01

Treatment decisions in life-threatening diseases, like colorectal cancer (CRC), are crucial, since they have a great impact on patient's survival and health-related quality of life. Thereby, the inclusion of patient's preferences becomes more and more important; however, these first need to be identified. Therefore, we conducted a systematic literature review in 12 electronic databases, published between 2000 and 2012, in order to identify patient's preferences concerning treatment preferences and involvement in the decision-making process. Nineteen studies were included and thoroughly analysed. This review shows that CRC patients do have preferences regarding different treatment options and outcomes; however, these preferences are not homogenous and seem to depend on personal factors like age and gender. Despite the existence of these preferences, the majority of patients prefer a passive role in the decision-making process, which in part may be explained by the severity of the disease. Again, subgroup analyses reveal the impact of personal factors like gender and education on the preference. Due to the importance of personal factors in the analysis of patient preferences, we identified an urgent need for larger studies that are suitable for subgroup analyses and incorporate multi-attributive measurement techniques, like discrete choice methods. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regulating Emotions during Difficult Multiattribute Decision Making: The Role of Pre-Decisional Coherence Shifting.

PubMed

Carpenter, Stephanie M; Yates, J Frank; Preston, Stephanie D; Chen, Lydia

2016-01-01

Almost all real-life decisions entail attribute conflict; every serious choice alternative is better than its competitors on some attribute dimensions but worse on others. In pre-decisional "coherence shifting," the decision maker gradually softens that conflict psychologically to the point where one alternative is seen as dominant over its competitors, or nearly so. Specifically, weaknesses of the eventually chosen alternative come to be perceived as less severe and less important while its strengths seem more desirable and significant. The research described here demonstrates that difficult multiattribute decision problems are aversive and that pre-decisional coherence shifting aids individuals in regulating that emotional discomfort. Across three studies, attribute conflict was confirmed to be aversive (Study 1), and skin conductance responses and ratings of decision difficulty both decreased in participants who coherence shifted (Study 2). Coherence shifting was also diminished among decision makers who were depleted of regulatory resources, known to be required for common emotion regulation mechanisms. Further, coherence shifting was shown to be relatively common among people who reported strong suppression tendencies in everyday emotion regulation (Study 3). Overall, the data suggest that, at least in part, coherence shifting serves as a tool that helps decision makers manage the pre-decisional discomfort generated by attribute conflict. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Regulating Emotions during Difficult Multiattribute Decision Making: The Role of Pre-Decisional Coherence Shifting

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Stephanie M.; Yates, J. Frank; Preston, Stephanie D.; Chen, Lydia

2016-01-01

Almost all real-life decisions entail attribute conflict; every serious choice alternative is better than its competitors on some attribute dimensions but worse on others. In pre-decisional “coherence shifting,” the decision maker gradually softens that conflict psychologically to the point where one alternative is seen as dominant over its competitors, or nearly so. Specifically, weaknesses of the eventually chosen alternative come to be perceived as less severe and less important while its strengths seem more desirable and significant. The research described here demonstrates that difficult multiattribute decision problems are aversive and that pre-decisional coherence shifting aids individuals in regulating that emotional discomfort. Across three studies, attribute conflict was confirmed to be aversive (Study 1), and skin conductance responses and ratings of decision difficulty both decreased in participants who coherence shifted (Study 2). Coherence shifting was also diminished among decision makers who were depleted of regulatory resources, known to be required for common emotion regulation mechanisms. Further, coherence shifting was shown to be relatively common among people who reported strong suppression tendencies in everyday emotion regulation (Study 3). Overall, the data suggest that, at least in part, coherence shifting serves as a tool that helps decision makers manage the pre-decisional discomfort generated by attribute conflict. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. PMID:26986752

Decision Making In A High-Tech World: Automation Bias and Countermeasures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosier, Kathleen L.; Skitka, Linda J.; Burdick, Mark R.; Heers, Susan T.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

Automated decision aids and decision support systems have become essential tools in many high-tech environments. In aviation, for example, flight management systems computers not only fly the aircraft, but also calculate fuel efficient paths, detect and diagnose system malfunctions and abnormalities, and recommend or carry out decisions. Air Traffic Controllers will soon be utilizing decision support tools to help them predict and detect potential conflicts and to generate clearances. Other fields as disparate as nuclear power plants and medical diagnostics are similarly becoming more and more automated. Ideally, the combination of human decision maker and automated decision aid should result in a high-performing team, maximizing the advantages of additional cognitive and observational power in the decision-making process. In reality, however, the presence of these aids often short-circuits the way that even very experienced decision makers have traditionally handled tasks and made decisions, and introduces opportunities for new decision heuristics and biases. Results of recent research investigating the use of automated aids have indicated the presence of automation bias, that is, errors made when decision makers rely on automated cues as a heuristic replacement for vigilant information seeking and processing. Automation commission errors, i.e., errors made when decision makers inappropriately follow an automated directive, or automation omission errors, i.e., errors made when humans fail to take action or notice a problem because an automated aid fails to inform them, can result from this tendency. Evidence of the tendency to make automation-related omission and commission errors has been found in pilot self reports, in studies using pilots in flight simulations, and in non-flight decision making contexts with student samples. Considerable research has found that increasing social accountability can successfully ameliorate a broad array of cognitive biases and resultant errors. To what extent these effects generalize to performance situations is not yet empirically established. The two studies to be presented represent concurrent efforts, with student and professional pilot samples, to determine the effects of accountability pressures on automation bias and on the verification of the accurate functioning of automated aids. Students (Experiment 1) and commercial pilots (Experiment 2) performed simulated flight tasks using automated aids. In both studies, participants who perceived themselves as accountable for their strategies of interaction with the automation were significantly more likely to verify its correctness, and committed significantly fewer automation-related errors than those who did not report this perception.

Finding a Path to Entrustment in Undergraduate Medical Education: A Progress Report From the AAMC Core Entrustable Professional Activities for Entering Residency Entrustment Concept Group.

PubMed

Brown, David R; Warren, Jamie B; Hyderi, Abbas; Drusin, Ronald E; Moeller, Jeremy; Rosenfeld, Melvin; Orlander, Philip R; Yingling, Sandra; Call, Stephanie; Terhune, Kyla; Bull, Janet; Englander, Robert; Wagner, Dianne P

2017-06-01

To better prepare graduating medical students to transition to the professional responsibilities of residency, 10 medical schools are participating in an Association of American Medical Colleges pilot to evaluate the feasibility of explicitly teaching and assessing 13 Core Entrustable Professional Activities for Entering Residency. The authors focused on operationalizing the concept of entrustment as part of this process. Starting in 2014, the Entrustment Concept Group, with representatives from each of the pilot schools, guided the development of the structures and processes necessary for formal entrustment decisions associated with students' increased responsibilities at the start of residency. Guiding principles developed by the group recommend that formal, summative entrustment decisions in undergraduate medical education be made by a trained group, be based on longitudinal performance assessments from multiple assessors, and incorporate day-to-day entrustment judgments by workplace supervisors. Key to entrustment decisions is evidence that students know their limits (discernment), can be relied on to follow through (conscientiousness), and are forthcoming despite potential personal costs (truthfulness), in addition to having the requisite knowledge and skills. The group constructed a developmental framework for discernment, conscientiousness, and truthfulness to pilot a model for transparent entrustment decision making. The pilot schools are studying a number of questions regarding the pathways to and decisions about entrustment. This work seeks to inform meaningful culture change in undergraduate medical education through a shared understanding of the assessment of trust and a shared trust in that assessment.

Economics of human performance and systems total ownership cost.

PubMed

Onkham, Wilawan; Karwowski, Waldemar; Ahram, Tareq Z

2012-01-01

Financial costs of investing in people is associated with training, acquisition, recruiting, and resolving human errors have a significant impact on increased total ownership costs. These costs can also affect the exaggerate budgets and delayed schedules. The study of human performance economical assessment in the system acquisition process enhances the visibility of hidden cost drivers which support program management informed decisions. This paper presents the literature review of human total ownership cost (HTOC) and cost impacts on overall system performance. Economic value assessment models such as cost benefit analysis, risk-cost tradeoff analysis, expected value of utility function analysis (EV), growth readiness matrix, multi-attribute utility technique, and multi-regressions model were introduced to reflect the HTOC and human performance-technology tradeoffs in terms of the dollar value. The human total ownership regression model introduces to address the influencing human performance cost component measurement. Results from this study will increase understanding of relevant cost drivers in the system acquisition process over the long term.

Field-scale multi-phase LNAPL remediation: Validating a new computational framework against sequential field pilot trials.

PubMed

Sookhak Lari, Kaveh; Johnston, Colin D; Rayner, John L; Davis, Greg B

2018-03-05

Remediation of subsurface systems, including groundwater, soil and soil gas, contaminated with light non-aqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) is challenging. Field-scale pilot trials of multi-phase remediation were undertaken at a site to determine the effectiveness of recovery options. Sequential LNAPL skimming and vacuum-enhanced skimming, with and without water table drawdown were trialled over 78days; in total extracting over 5m 3 of LNAPL. For the first time, a multi-component simulation framework (including the multi-phase multi-component code TMVOC-MP and processing codes) was developed and applied to simulate the broad range of multi-phase remediation and recovery methods used in the field trials. This framework was validated against the sequential pilot trials by comparing predicted and measured LNAPL mass removal rates and compositional changes. The framework was tested on both a Cray supercomputer and a cluster. Simulations mimicked trends in LNAPL recovery rates (from 0.14 to 3mL/s) across all remediation techniques each operating over periods of 4-14days over the 78day trial. The code also approximated order of magnitude compositional changes of hazardous chemical concentrations in extracted gas during vacuum-enhanced recovery. The verified framework enables longer term prediction of the effectiveness of remediation approaches allowing better determination of remediation endpoints and long-term risks. Copyright © 2017 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automation design and crew coordination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, Leon D.

1993-01-01

Advances in technology have greatly impacted the appearance of the modern aircraft cockpit. Where once one would see rows upon rows. The introduction of automation has greatly altered the demands on the pilots and the dynamics of aircrew task performance. While engineers and designers continue to implement the latest technological innovations in the cockpit - claiming higher reliability and decreased workload - a large percentage of aircraft accidents are still attributed to human error. Rather than being the main instigators of accidents, operators tend to be the inheritors of system defects created by poor design, incorrect installation, faulty maintenance and bad management decisions. This paper looks at some of the variables that need to be considered if we are to eliminate at least one of these inheritances - poor design. Specifically, this paper describes the first part of a comprehensive study aimed at identifying the effects of automation on crew coordination.

Shared decision-making at the end of life: A focus group study exploring the perceptions and experiences of multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals working in the home setting.

PubMed

Brogan, Paula; Hasson, Felicity; McIlfatrick, Sonja

2018-01-01

Globally recommended in healthcare policy, Shared Decision-Making is also central to international policy promoting community palliative care. Yet realities of implementation by multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals who provide end-of-life care in the home are unclear. To explore multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals' perceptions and experiences of Shared Decision-Making at end of life in the home. Qualitative design using focus groups, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. A total of 43 participants, from multi-disciplinary community-based services in one region of the United Kingdom, were recruited. While the rhetoric of Shared Decision-Making was recognised, its implementation was impacted by several interconnecting factors, including (1) conceptual confusion regarding Shared Decision-Making, (2) uncertainty in the process and (3) organisational factors which impeded Shared Decision-Making. Multiple interacting factors influence implementation of Shared Decision-Making by professionals working in complex community settings at the end of life. Moving from rhetoric to reality requires future work exploring the realities of Shared Decision-Making practice at individual, process and systems levels.

Neural Underpinnings of Decision Strategy Selection: A Review and a Theoretical Model

PubMed Central

Wichary, Szymon; Smolen, Tomasz

2016-01-01

In multi-attribute choice, decision makers use decision strategies to arrive at the final choice. What are the neural mechanisms underlying decision strategy selection? The first goal of this paper is to provide a literature review on the neural underpinnings and cognitive models of decision strategy selection and thus set the stage for a neurocognitive model of this process. The second goal is to outline such a unifying, mechanistic model that can explain the impact of noncognitive factors (e.g., affect, stress) on strategy selection. To this end, we review the evidence for the factors influencing strategy selection, the neural basis of strategy use and the cognitive models of this process. We also present the Bottom-Up Model of Strategy Selection (BUMSS). The model assumes that the use of the rational Weighted Additive strategy and the boundedly rational heuristic Take The Best can be explained by one unifying, neurophysiologically plausible mechanism, based on the interaction of the frontoparietal network, orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex and the brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. According to BUMSS, there are three processes that form the bottom-up mechanism of decision strategy selection and lead to the final choice: (1) cue weight computation, (2) gain modulation, and (3) weighted additive evaluation of alternatives. We discuss how these processes might be implemented in the brain, and how this knowledge allows us to formulate novel predictions linking strategy use and neural signals. PMID:27877103

Transportation decision making in San Bernardino County. Transportation decision-making in Riverside County.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-19

The Institute of Applied Reearch (IAR) at California Sate University, San Bernadino (CSUSB) is pleased to present its report on the 2009 Pilot Study: Trasnportation Decision-Making in the Inland Empire (Riverside and San Bernandino Counties). This st...

Some Muirhead Mean Operators for Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers and Their Applications to Group Decision Making.

PubMed

Liu, Peide; Li, Dengfeng

2017-01-01

Muirhead mean (MM) is a well-known aggregation operator which can consider interrelationships among any number of arguments assigned by a variable vector. Besides, it is a universal operator since it can contain other general operators by assigning some special parameter values. However, the MM can only process the crisp numbers. Inspired by the MM' advantages, the aim of this paper is to extend MM to process the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) and then to solve the multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems. Firstly, we develop some intuitionistic fuzzy Muirhead mean (IFMM) operators by extending MM to intuitionistic fuzzy information. Then, we prove some properties and discuss some special cases with respect to the parameter vector. Moreover, we present two new methods to deal with MAGDM problems with the intuitionistic fuzzy information based on the proposed MM operators. Finally, we verify the validity and reliability of our methods by using an application example, and analyze the advantages of our methods by comparing with other existing methods.

Threat expert system technology advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

1987-01-01

A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

Do Teachers Make Decisions Like Firefighters? Applying Naturalistic Decision-Making Methods to Teachers' In-Class Decision Making in Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jazby, Dan

2014-01-01

Research into human decision making (DM) processes from outside of education paint a different picture of DM than current DM models in education. This pilot study assesses the use of critical decision method (CDM)--developed from observations of firefighters' DM -- in the context of primary mathematics teachers' in-class DM. Preliminary results…

Nuclear electric propulsion options for piloted Mars missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, Jeffrey A.

1993-01-01

Three nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) systems are discussed. The three systems are as follows: a system based on current SP-100 technology; a potassium Rankine-cycle based power conversion system, and an argon ion thruster system. The system will be researched for implementation in several possible vehicle configurations. The following are among the possible Mars vehicle configurations: a piloted 15 MWe multi-reactor vehicle; a piloted 10 MWe vehicle with ECCV; a piloted 10 MWe modular vehicle; piloted 10 and 15 MWe vehicles with ECCV and MEV; a piloted 5 MWe vehicle with ECCV; a 5 MWe cargo vehicle with 2 MEV's; and a 2.5 MWe vehicle with MEV.

Hesitant triangular fuzzy information aggregation operators based on Bonferroni means and their application to multiple attribute decision making.

PubMed

Wang, Chunyong; Li, Qingguo; Zhou, Xiaoqiang; Yang, Tian

2014-01-01

We investigate the multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problems with hesitant triangular fuzzy information. Firstly, definition and some operational laws of hesitant triangular fuzzy elements are introduced. Then, we develop some hesitant triangular fuzzy aggregation operators based on Bonferroni means and discuss their basic properties. Some existing operators can be viewed as their special cases. Next, we apply the proposed operators to deal with multiple attribute decision-making problems under hesitant triangular fuzzy environment. Finally, an illustrative example is given to show the developed method and demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.

Hesitant Triangular Fuzzy Information Aggregation Operators Based on Bonferroni Means and Their Application to Multiple Attribute Decision Making

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xiaoqiang; Yang, Tian

2014-01-01

We investigate the multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problems with hesitant triangular fuzzy information. Firstly, definition and some operational laws of hesitant triangular fuzzy elements are introduced. Then, we develop some hesitant triangular fuzzy aggregation operators based on Bonferroni means and discuss their basic properties. Some existing operators can be viewed as their special cases. Next, we apply the proposed operators to deal with multiple attribute decision-making problems under hesitant triangular fuzzy environment. Finally, an illustrative example is given to show the developed method and demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness. PMID:25140338

Extending decision making competence to special populations: a pilot study of persons on the autism spectrum

PubMed Central

Levin, Irwin P.; Gaeth, Gary J.; Foley-Nicpon, Megan; Yegorova, Vitaliya; Cederberg, Charles; Yan, Haoyang

2015-01-01

The area of decision making has much to offer in our effort to understand special populations. This pilot study is an example of just such a project, where we illustrate how traditional decision making tools and tasks can be used to uncover strengths and weaknesses within a growing population of young adults with autism. In this pilot project we extended accounts of autistic behavior such as those derived from “theory of mind” to predict key components of decision making in high-functioning young adults on the autism spectrum. A battery of tests was administered to 15 high-functioning college students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), focusing on decision making competence (DMC) and other aspects of decision making related to known deficits associated with autism. Data from this group were compared to data from unselected college students receiving the same measures. First, as a test of a key social deficit associated with autism, the target group scored much lower on the Empathy Quotient scale. Traditional elements of decision making competency such as Numeracy and application of decision rules were comparable across groups. However, there were differences in thinking style, with the ASD group showing lesser ability and engagement in intuitive thinking, and they showed lower levels of risk taking. For comparisons within the ASD group, autobiographical reports concerning individual lifestyles and outcomes were used to derive a scale of Social Functioning. The lowest scoring individuals showed the lowest levels of intuitive thinking, the lowest perceived levels of others’ endorsement of socially undesirable behaviors, and the lowest ability to discriminate between “good” and “bad” risks. Results are discussed in terms of interventions that might aid high-functioning young adults with ASD in their everyday decision making. PMID:25972831

Extending decision making competence to special populations: a pilot study of persons on the autism spectrum.

PubMed

Levin, Irwin P; Gaeth, Gary J; Foley-Nicpon, Megan; Yegorova, Vitaliya; Cederberg, Charles; Yan, Haoyang

2015-01-01

The area of decision making has much to offer in our effort to understand special populations. This pilot study is an example of just such a project, where we illustrate how traditional decision making tools and tasks can be used to uncover strengths and weaknesses within a growing population of young adults with autism. In this pilot project we extended accounts of autistic behavior such as those derived from "theory of mind" to predict key components of decision making in high-functioning young adults on the autism spectrum. A battery of tests was administered to 15 high-functioning college students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), focusing on decision making competence (DMC) and other aspects of decision making related to known deficits associated with autism. Data from this group were compared to data from unselected college students receiving the same measures. First, as a test of a key social deficit associated with autism, the target group scored much lower on the Empathy Quotient scale. Traditional elements of decision making competency such as Numeracy and application of decision rules were comparable across groups. However, there were differences in thinking style, with the ASD group showing lesser ability and engagement in intuitive thinking, and they showed lower levels of risk taking. For comparisons within the ASD group, autobiographical reports concerning individual lifestyles and outcomes were used to derive a scale of Social Functioning. The lowest scoring individuals showed the lowest levels of intuitive thinking, the lowest perceived levels of others' endorsement of socially undesirable behaviors, and the lowest ability to discriminate between "good" and "bad" risks. Results are discussed in terms of interventions that might aid high-functioning young adults with ASD in their everyday decision making.

Mental workload in decision and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheridan, T. B.

1979-01-01

This paper briefly reviews the problems of defining and measuring the 'mental workload' of aircraft pilots and other human operators of complex dynamic systems. Of the alternative approaches the author indicates a clear preference for the use of subjective scaling. Some recent experiments from MIT and elsewhere are described which utilize subjective mental workload scales in conjunction with human decision and control tasks in the laboratory. Finally a new three-dimensional mental workload rating scale, under current development for use by IFR aircraft pilots, is presented.

Developing attributes and attribute-levels for a discrete choice experiment on micro health insurance in rural Malawi.

PubMed

Abiiro, Gilbert Abotisem; Leppert, Gerald; Mbera, Grace Bongololo; Robyn, Paul J; De Allegri, Manuela

2014-05-22

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are attribute-driven experimental techniques used to elicit stakeholders' preferences to support the design and implementation of policy interventions. The validity of a DCE, therefore, depends on the appropriate specification of the attributes and their levels. There have been recent calls for greater rigor in implementing and reporting on the processes of developing attributes and attribute-levels for discrete choice experiments (DCEs). This paper responds to such calls by carefully reporting a systematic process of developing micro health insurance attributes and attribute-levels for the design of a DCE in rural Malawi. Conceptual attributes and attribute-levels were initially derived from a literature review which informed the design of qualitative data collection tools to identify context specific attributes and attribute-levels. Qualitative data was collected in August-September 2012 from 12 focus group discussions with community residents and 8 in-depth interviews with health workers. All participants were selected according to stratified purposive sampling. The material was tape-recorded, fully transcribed, and coded by three researchers to identify context-specific attributes and attribute-levels. Expert opinion was used to scale down the attributes and levels. A pilot study confirmed the appropriateness of the selected attributes and levels for a DCE. First, a consensus, emerging from an individual level analysis of the qualitative transcripts, identified 10 candidate attributes. Levels were assigned to all attributes based on data from transcripts and knowledge of the Malawian context, derived from literature. Second, through further discussions with experts, four attributes were discarded based on multiple criteria. The 6 remaining attributes were: premium level, unit of enrollment, management structure, health service benefit package, transportation coverage and copayment levels. A final step of revision and piloting confirmed that the retained attributes satisfied the credibility criteria of DCE attributes. This detailed description makes our attribute development process transparent, and provides the reader with a basis to assess the rigor of this stage of constructing the DCE. This paper contributes empirical evidence to the limited methodological literature on attributes and levels development for DCE, thereby providing further empirical guidance on the matter, specifically within rural communities of low- and middle-income countries.

Multi-objective decision-making model based on CBM for an aircraft fleet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Bin; Lin, Lin

2018-04-01

Modern production management patterns, in which multi-unit (e.g., a fleet of aircrafts) are managed in a holistic manner, have brought new challenges for multi-unit maintenance decision making. To schedule a good maintenance plan, not only does the individual machine maintenance have to be considered, but also the maintenance of the other individuals have to be taken into account. Since most condition-based maintenance researches for aircraft focused on solely reducing maintenance cost or maximizing the availability of single aircraft, as well as considering that seldom researches concentrated on both the two objectives: minimizing cost and maximizing the availability of a fleet (total number of available aircraft in fleet), a multi-objective decision-making model based on condition-based maintenance concentrated both on the above two objectives is established. Furthermore, in consideration of the decision maker may prefer providing the final optimal result in the form of discrete intervals instead of a set of points (non-dominated solutions) in real decision-making problem, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on support vector regression is proposed to solve the above multi-objective decision-making model. Finally, a case study regarding a fleet is conducted, with the results proving that the approach efficiently generates outcomes that meet the schedule requirements.

MOCHA - Multi-Study Ocean Acoustics Human Effects Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

and P.J.O. Miller. 2014. High thresholds for avoidance of sonar by free-ranging long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas ). Marine Pollution...sonar by free-ranging long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas ). Marine Pollution Bulletin, 83(1): 165-180. [published, refereed] DeRuiter, S.L...Press. The social context of individual foraging behaviour in long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas ). Behaviour, 2014 [in press, refereed

Nurse-led immunotreatment DEcision Coaching In people with Multiple Sclerosis (DECIMS) - Feasibility testing, pilot randomised controlled trial and mixed methods process evaluation.

PubMed

Rahn, A C; Köpke, S; Backhus, I; Kasper, J; Anger, K; Untiedt, B; Alegiani, A; Kleiter, I; Mühlhauser, I; Heesen, C

2018-02-01

Treatment decision-making is complex for people with multiple sclerosis. Profound information on available options is virtually not possible in regular neurologist encounters. The "nurse decision coach model" was developed to redistribute health professionals' tasks in supporting immunotreatment decision-making following the principles of informed shared decision-making. To test the feasibility of a decision coaching programme and recruitment strategies to inform the main trial. Feasibility testing and parallel pilot randomised controlled trial, accompanied by a mixed methods process evaluation. Two German multiple sclerosis university centres. People with suspected or relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis facing immunotreatment decisions on first line drugs were recruited. Randomisation to the intervention (n = 38) or control group (n = 35) was performed on a daily basis. Quantitative and qualitative process data were collected from people with multiple sclerosis, nurses and physicians. We report on the development and piloting of the decision coaching programme. It comprises a training course for multiple sclerosis nurses and the coaching intervention. The intervention consists of up to three structured nurse-led decision coaching sessions, access to an evidence-based online information platform (DECIMS-Wiki) and a final physician consultation. After feasibility testing, a pilot randomised controlled trial was performed. People with multiple sclerosis were randomised to the intervention or control group. The latter had also access to the DECIMS-Wiki, but received otherwise care as usual. Nurses were not blinded to group assignment, while people with multiple sclerosis and physicians were. The primary outcome was 'informed choice' after six months including the sub-dimensions' risk knowledge (after 14 days), attitude concerning immunotreatment (after physician consultation), and treatment uptake (after six months). Quantitative process evaluation data were collected via questionnaires. Qualitative interviews were performed with all nurses and a convenience sample of nine people with multiple sclerosis. 116 people with multiple sclerosis fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 73 (63%) were included. Groups were comparable at baseline. Data of 51 people with multiple sclerosis (70%) were available for the primary endpoint. In the intervention group 15 of 31 (48%) people with multiple sclerosis achieved an informed choice after six months and 6 of 20 (30%) in the control group. Process evaluation data illustrated a positive response towards the coaching programme as well as good acceptance. The pilot-phase showed promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility of the intervention, which was well perceived by people with multiple sclerosis, most nurses and physicians. Delegating parts of the immunotreatment decision-making process to trained nurses has the potential to increase informed choice and participation as well as effectiveness of patient-physician consultations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

76 FR 31951 - Energy Conservation Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Decision and Order...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-02

... specific to the Carrier Super Modular Multi-System (SMMSi) variable refrigerant flow (VRF) multi-split... in this notice to test and rate its SMMSi VRF multi-split commercial heat pumps. DATES: This Decision... its SMMSi VRF multi-split products. Carrier must use the alternate test procedure provided in this...

Use of traffic displays for general aviation approach spacing : a human factors study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

A flight experiment was conducted to assess human factors issues associated with pilot use of traffic displays for approach : spacing. Sixteen multi-engine rated pilots participated. Eight flew approaches in a twin-engine Piper Aztec originating in :...

A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events such as heat waves or droughts has evolved rapidly over the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence probability of an event in the present, factual world with the probability of the same event in a hypothetical, counterfactual world without human-induced climate change. Every such analysis necessarily faces multiple methodological choices including, but not limited to: the event definition, climate model configuration, and the design of the counterfactual world. Here, we explore the role of such choices for an attribution analysis of the 2015 European summer drought (Hauser et al., in preparation). While some GCMs suggest that anthropogenic forcing made the 2015 drought more likely, others suggest no impact, or even a decrease in the event probability. These results additionally differ for single GCMs, depending on the reference used for the counterfactual world. Observational results do not suggest a historical tendency towards more drying, but the record may be too short to provide robust assessments because of the large interannual variability of drought occurrence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-approach framework in event attribution research. This is especially important for events with low signal to noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts. Hauser, M., L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, A. Jézéquel, K. Haustein, S.I. Seneviratne, in preparation. A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought.

Non-ad-hoc decision rule for the Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

1998-03-01

This paper is concerned with the fusion of identity information through the use of statistical analysis rooted in Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide automatic identification aboard a platform. An identity information process for a baseline Multi-Source Data Fusion (MSDF) system is defined. The MSDF system is applied to information sources which include a number of radars, IFF systems, an ESM system, and a remote track source. We use a comprehensive Platform Data Base (PDB) containing all the possible identity values that the potential target may take, and we use the fuzzy logic strategies which enable the fusion of subjective attribute information from sensor and the PDB to make the derivation of target identity more quickly, more precisely, and with statistically quantifiable measures of confidence. The conventional Dempster-Shafer lacks a formal basis upon which decision can be made in the face of ambiguity. We define a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval for pruning the `unessential' propositions which would otherwise overload the real-time data fusion systems. An example has been selected to demonstrate the implementation of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

Decision making for Pap testing among Pacific Islander women.

PubMed

Weiss, Jie W; Mouttapa, Michele; Sablan-Santos, Lola; DeGuzman Lacsamana, Jasmine; Quitugua, Lourdes; Park Tanjasiri, Sora

2016-12-01

This study employed a Multi-Attribute Utility (MAU) model to examine the Pap test decision-making process among Pacific Islanders (PI) residing in Southern California. A total of 585 PI women were recruited through social networks from Samoan and Tongan churches, and Chamorro family clans. A questionnaire assessed Pap test knowledge, beliefs and past behaviour. The three MAU parameters of subjective value, subjective probability and momentary salience were measured for eight anticipated consequences of having a Pap test (e.g., feeling embarrassed, spending money). Logistic regression indicated that women who had a Pap test (Pap women) had higher total MAU utility scores compared to women who had not had a Pap test within the past three years (No Pap women) (adjusted Odds Ratio = 1.10). In particular, Pap women had higher utilities for the positive consequences 'Detecting cervical cancer early, Peace of mind, and Protecting my family', compared to No Pap women. It is concluded that the connection between utility and behaviour offers a promising pathway toward a better understanding of the decision to undergo Pap testing. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Collaborative human-machine analysis to disambiguate entities in unstructured text and structured datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davenport, Jack H.

2016-05-01

Intelligence analysts demand rapid information fusion capabilities to develop and maintain accurate situational awareness and understanding of dynamic enemy threats in asymmetric military operations. The ability to extract relationships between people, groups, and locations from a variety of text datasets is critical to proactive decision making. The derived network of entities must be automatically created and presented to analysts to assist in decision making. DECISIVE ANALYTICS Corporation (DAC) provides capabilities to automatically extract entities, relationships between entities, semantic concepts about entities, and network models of entities from text and multi-source datasets. DAC's Natural Language Processing (NLP) Entity Analytics model entities as complex systems of attributes and interrelationships which are extracted from unstructured text via NLP algorithms. The extracted entities are automatically disambiguated via machine learning algorithms, and resolution recommendations are presented to the analyst for validation; the analyst's expertise is leveraged in this hybrid human/computer collaborative model. Military capability is enhanced by these NLP Entity Analytics because analysts can now create/update an entity profile with intelligence automatically extracted from unstructured text, thereby fusing entity knowledge from structured and unstructured data sources. Operational and sustainment costs are reduced since analysts do not have to manually tag and resolve entities.

"People over profits": retailers who voluntarily ended tobacco sales.

PubMed

McDaniel, Patricia A; Malone, Ruth E

2014-01-01

Tobacco retailers are key players in the ongoing tobacco epidemic. Tobacco outlet density is linked to a greater likelihood of youth and adult smoking and greater difficulty quitting. While public policy efforts to address the tobacco problem at the retail level have been limited, some retailers have voluntarily ended tobacco sales. A previous pilot study examined this phenomenon in California, a state with a strong tobacco program focused on denormalizing smoking and the tobacco industry. We sought to learn what motivated retailers in other states to end tobacco sales and how the public and media responded. We conducted interviews with owners, managers, or representatives of six grocery stores in New York and Ohio that had voluntarily ended tobacco sales since 2007. We also conducted unobtrusive observations at stores and analyzed media coverage of each retailer's decision. Grocery store owners ended tobacco sales for two reasons, alone or in combination: health or ethics-related, including a desire to send a consistent health message to employees and customers, and business-related, including declining tobacco sales or poor fit with the store's image. The decision to end sales often appeared to resolve troubling contradictions between retailers' values and selling deadly products. New York retailers attributed declining sales to high state tobacco taxes. All reported largely positive customer reactions and most received media coverage. Forty-one percent of news items were letters to the editor or editorials; most (69%) supported the decision. Voluntary decisions by retailers to abandon tobacco sales may lay the groundwork for mandatory policies and further denormalize tobacco. Our study also suggests that high tobacco taxes may have both direct and indirect effects on tobacco use. Highlighting the contradictions between being a responsible business and selling deadly products may support voluntary decisions by retailers to end tobacco sales.

Architecture Design of Healthcare Software-as-a-Service Platform for Cloud-Based Clinical Decision Support Service

PubMed Central

Oh, Sungyoung; Cha, Jieun; Ji, Myungkyu; Kang, Hyekyung; Kim, Seok; Heo, Eunyoung; Han, Jong Soo; Kang, Hyunggoo; Chae, Hoseok; Hwang, Hee

2015-01-01

Objectives To design a cloud computing-based Healthcare Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Platform (HSP) for delivering healthcare information services with low cost, high clinical value, and high usability. Methods We analyzed the architecture requirements of an HSP, including the interface, business services, cloud SaaS, quality attributes, privacy and security, and multi-lingual capacity. For cloud-based SaaS services, we focused on Clinical Decision Service (CDS) content services, basic functional services, and mobile services. Microsoft's Azure cloud computing for Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) was used. Results The functional and software views of an HSP were designed in a layered architecture. External systems can be interfaced with the HSP using SOAP and REST/JSON. The multi-tenancy model of the HSP was designed as a shared database, with a separate schema for each tenant through a single application, although healthcare data can be physically located on a cloud or in a hospital, depending on regulations. The CDS services were categorized into rule-based services for medications, alert registration services, and knowledge services. Conclusions We expect that cloud-based HSPs will allow small and mid-sized hospitals, in addition to large-sized hospitals, to adopt information infrastructures and health information technology with low system operation and maintenance costs. PMID:25995962

A potential role of reward and punishment in the facilitation of the emotion-cognition dichotomy in the Iowa Gambling Task.

PubMed

Singh, Varsha

2013-01-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is based on the assumption that a decision maker is equally motivated to seek reward and avoid punishment, and that decision making is governed solely by the intertemporal attribute (i.e., preference for an option that produces an immediate outcome instead of one that yields a delayed outcome is believed to reflect risky decision making and is considered a deficit). It was assumed in the present study that the emotion- and cognition-based processing dichotomy manifests in the IGT as reward and punishment frequency and the intertemporal attribute. It was further proposed that the delineation of emotion- and cognition-based processing is contingent upon reward and punishment as manifested in the frame of the task (variant type) and task motivation (instruction type). The effects of IGT variant type (reward vs. punishment) and instruction type (task motivation induced by instruction types: reward, punishment, reward and punishment, or no hint) on the intertemporal and frequency attributes of IGT decision-making were analyzed. Decision making in the reward variant was equally governed by both attributes, and significantly affected by instruction type, while decision making in the punishment variant was differentially affected by the two attributes and not significantly impacted by instruction type. These results suggest that reward and punishment manifested via task frame as well as the task motivation may facilitate the differentiation of emotion- and cognition-based processing in the IGT.

A potential role of reward and punishment in the facilitation of the emotion-cognition dichotomy in the Iowa Gambling Task

PubMed Central

Singh, Varsha

2013-01-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is based on the assumption that a decision maker is equally motivated to seek reward and avoid punishment, and that decision making is governed solely by the intertemporal attribute (i.e., preference for an option that produces an immediate outcome instead of one that yields a delayed outcome is believed to reflect risky decision making and is considered a deficit). It was assumed in the present study that the emotion- and cognition-based processing dichotomy manifests in the IGT as reward and punishment frequency and the intertemporal attribute. It was further proposed that the delineation of emotion- and cognition-based processing is contingent upon reward and punishment as manifested in the frame of the task (variant type) and task motivation (instruction type). The effects of IGT variant type (reward vs. punishment) and instruction type (task motivation induced by instruction types: reward, punishment, reward and punishment, or no hint) on the intertemporal and frequency attributes of IGT decision-making were analyzed. Decision making in the reward variant was equally governed by both attributes, and significantly affected by instruction type, while decision making in the punishment variant was differentially affected by the two attributes and not significantly impacted by instruction type. These results suggest that reward and punishment manifested via task frame as well as the task motivation may facilitate the differentiation of emotion- and cognition-based processing in the IGT. PMID:24381567

Application of preprocessing filtering on Decision Tree C4.5 and rough set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Joseph C. C.; Lin, Tsau Y.

2001-03-01

This paper compares two artificial intelligence methods: the Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory on the stock market data. The Decision Tree C4.5 is reviewed with the Rough Set Theory. An enhanced window application is developed to facilitate the pre-processing filtering by introducing the feature (attribute) transformations, which allows users to input formulas and create new attributes. Also, the application produces three varieties of data set with delaying, averaging, and summation. The results prove the improvement of pre-processing by applying feature (attribute) transformations on Decision Tree C4.5. Moreover, the comparison between Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory is based on the clarity, automation, accuracy, dimensionality, raw data, and speed, which is supported by the rules sets generated by both algorithms on three different sets of data.

Student Pilot Aptitude as an Indicator of Success in a Part 141 Collegiate Flight Training Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McFarland, Maureen R.

2017-01-01

Predicting flight training success has been well researched in military aviation yet there is limited information pertaining to general aviation. The purpose of this study was to determine if attributes of pilot performance could be used to differentiate students in a collegiate flight training program. Several pre-entry and flight training…

Exploring Reactions to Pilot Reliability Certification and Changing Attitudes on the Reduction of Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boedigheimer, Dan

2010-01-01

Approximately 70% of aviation accidents are attributable to human error. The greatest opportunity for further improving aviation safety is found in reducing human errors in the cockpit. The purpose of this quasi-experimental, mixed-method research was to evaluate whether there was a difference in pilot attitudes toward reducing human error in the…

The Effect of Cognitive Behavior Therapy on Decision Making in Adolescents Who Self-Harm: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oldershaw, Anna; Simic, Mima; Grima, Emanuela; Jollant, Fabrice; Richards, Clair; Taylor, Lucy; Schmidt, Ulrike

2012-01-01

Research shows poor decision making in adolescents who self-harm and a positive correlation between decision-making abilities and duration since last self-harm episode. This exploratory study investigated whether decision making in self-harming adolescents could be improved through treatment with a novel cognitive behavior therapy (CBT). It also…

Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Mavis F.

2001-01-01

This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

Multiattribute evaluation in formulary decision making as applied to calcium-channel blockers.

PubMed

Schumacher, G E

1991-02-01

The use of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to make a formulary decision involving calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) is described. The MAUT method is a procedure for identifying, characterizing, and comparing the many variables that may affect a decision. Although applications in pharmacy have been infrequent, MAUT should be particularly appealing to formulary committees. The steps of the MAUT method are (1) determine the viewpoint of the decision makers, (2) identify the decision alternatives, (3) identify the attributes to be evaluated, (4) identify the factors to be used in evaluating the attributes, (5) establish a utility scale for scoring each factor, (6) transform the values for each factor to its utility scale, (7) determine weights for each attribute and factor, (8) calculate the total utility score for each decision alternative, (9) determine which decision alternative has the greatest total score, and (10) perform a sensitivity analysis. The viewpoint of a formulary committee in a health maintenance organization was simulated to develop a model for using the MAUT method to compare CCBs for single-agent therapy of chronic stable angina in ambulatory patients for one year. The attributes chosen were effectiveness, safety, patient acceptance, and cost and weighted 36%, 29%, 21%, and 14%, respectively, as contributions to the evaluation. The rank order of the decision alternatives was (1) generic verapamil, (2) brand-name verapamil, (3) diltiazem, (4) nicardipine, and (5) nifedipine. The MAUT method provides a standardized yet flexible format for comparing and selecting among formulary alternatives.

Solving multi-objective optimization problems in conservation with the reference point method

PubMed Central

Dujardin, Yann; Chadès, Iadine

2018-01-01

Managing the biodiversity extinction crisis requires wise decision-making processes able to account for the limited resources available. In most decision problems in conservation biology, several conflicting objectives have to be taken into account. Most methods used in conservation either provide suboptimal solutions or use strong assumptions about the decision-maker’s preferences. Our paper reviews some of the existing approaches to solve multi-objective decision problems and presents new multi-objective linear programming formulations of two multi-objective optimization problems in conservation, allowing the use of a reference point approach. Reference point approaches solve multi-objective optimization problems by interactively representing the preferences of the decision-maker with a point in the criteria (objectives) space, called the reference point. We modelled and solved the following two problems in conservation: a dynamic multi-species management problem under uncertainty and a spatial allocation resource management problem. Results show that the reference point method outperforms classic methods while illustrating the use of an interactive methodology for solving combinatorial problems with multiple objectives. The method is general and can be adapted to a wide range of ecological combinatorial problems. PMID:29293650

A Reconfiguration Scheme for Accommodating Actuator Failures in Multi-Input, Multi-Output Flight Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siwakosit, W.; Hess, R. A.; Bacon, Bart (Technical Monitor); Burken, John (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A multi-input, multi-output reconfigurable flight control system design utilizing a robust controller and an adaptive filter is presented. The robust control design consists of a reduced-order, linear dynamic inversion controller with an outer-loop compensation matrix derived from Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT). A principle feature of the scheme is placement of the adaptive filter in series with the QFT compensator thus exploiting the inherent robustness of the nominal flight control system in the presence of plant uncertainties. An example of the scheme is presented in a pilot-in-the-loop computer simulation using a simplified model of the lateral-directional dynamics of the NASA F18 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) that included nonlinear anti-wind up logic and actuator limitations. Prediction of handling qualities and pilot-induced oscillation tendencies in the presence of these nonlinearities is included in the example.

Preliminary validation of the Satisfaction With Decision scale with depressed primary care patients

PubMed Central

Wills, Celia E.; Holmes‐Rovner, Margaret

2003-01-01

Abstract Objective To conduct a preliminary validation of the Satisfaction With Decision (SWD) scale with depressed primary care patients. Design  Cross‐sectional observational pilot study using a postal survey. Setting and participants  Depressed primary care patients (n = 97) who recently had made a new decision about antidepressant medication use completed surveys regarding their treatment decisions. Main variables  Measures included patient‐reported satisfaction with decision, decisional conflict, knowledge about depression and treatment, decision involvement, pain and health status, antidepressant medication efficacy, and satisfaction with health services. Results  The SWD scale had good internal consistency reliability (α = 0.85). Evidence for construct validity was confirmed via a hypothesized pattern of relationships between the SWD scale and other measures. Decision satisfaction was associated with several issues of relevance for designing patient‐centred decision support interventions: (1) knowledge about depression and treatment; (2) involvement in health‐related decisions; and (3) aiding evaluation of trade‐offs among pros and cons of treatment. Conclusions  The results of this pilot study show that the SWD scale appears to be a psychometrically sound and practical measure for research with this population. Additional research is needed on the theoretical nature of decision satisfaction and developing and testing patient‐centred decision support interventions for depression treatment. PMID:12752743

m2-ABKS: Attribute-Based Multi-Keyword Search over Encrypted Personal Health Records in Multi-Owner Setting.

PubMed

Miao, Yinbin; Ma, Jianfeng; Liu, Ximeng; Wei, Fushan; Liu, Zhiquan; Wang, Xu An

2016-11-01

Online personal health record (PHR) is more inclined to shift data storage and search operations to cloud server so as to enjoy the elastic resources and lessen computational burden in cloud storage. As multiple patients' data is always stored in the cloud server simultaneously, it is a challenge to guarantee the confidentiality of PHR data and allow data users to search encrypted data in an efficient and privacy-preserving way. To this end, we design a secure cryptographic primitive called as attribute-based multi-keyword search over encrypted personal health records in multi-owner setting to support both fine-grained access control and multi-keyword search via Ciphertext-Policy Attribute-Based Encryption. Formal security analysis proves our scheme is selectively secure against chosen-keyword attack. As a further contribution, we conduct empirical experiments over real-world dataset to show its feasibility and practicality in a broad range of actual scenarios without incurring additional computational burden.

Context before implementation: a qualitative study of decision makers' views of a peer-led healthy lifestyle intervention for people with serious mental illness in supportive housing.

PubMed

Cabassa, Leopoldo J; Stefancic, Ana

2018-04-04

People with serious mental illness die at an earlier age than people in the general population largely due to cardiovascular disease. Healthy lifestyle interventions can help reduce this health inequity. In this qualitative study, we examined the perceptions that decision makers in supportive housing agencies had toward a peer-led healthy lifestyle intervention and their views of contextual factors that could shape implementation at these agencies. A purposive sample of 12 decision makers from three supportive housing agencies was recruited. We presented participants a vignette describing our peer-led intervention and used semistructured qualitative interviews to examine their views. Interviews were recorded, professionally transcribed, and analyzed using directed content analysis. Participants reported positive views toward the intervention with the most valued intervention attributes being relative advantage over existing services, compatibility to clients' needs, ability to pilot the intervention, and cost. A model emerged from our data depicting multilevel contextual factors believed to shape the implementation of our intervention at these agencies, including system- (funding, marketability, and external regulations), organization- (leadership support, fit with organization, staff buy-in and burden), and client-level (adaptability to clients' needs, and clients' buy-in) factors. Study findings illustrate the importance of understanding the context of practice before implementation. This examination can help identify critical views from decision makers that could undermine or advance the integration of peer-led interventions in supportive housing agencies and help identify structures, policies, and organizational practices that can inform the implementation process.

Optimizing Flight Schedules by an Automated Decision Support System

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

18 Figure 5-Equation-1 of Grading Pilot-Mission Matches ( Yavuz , 2010) .......................... 22 Figure 6-Equation...2 of Grading Pilot-Mission Matches ( Yavuz , 2010) .......................... 22 Figure 7-Implementation of GRASP ( Yavuz , 2010...23 Figure 8-Overall Process ( Yavuz , 2010

Visual cues to geographical orientation during low-level flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Battiste, Vernol; Delzell, Suzanne

1991-01-01

A field study of an operational Emergency Medical Service (EMS) unit was conducted to investigate the relationships among geographical orientation, pilot decision making, and workload in EMS flights. The map data collected during this study were compared to protocols gathered in the laboratory, where pilots viewed a simulated flight over different types of unfamiliar terrain and verbally identified the features utilized to maintain geographical orientation. The EMS pilot's questionnaire data were compared with data from non-EMS helicopter pilots with comparable flight experience.

A Framework for Instrument Development of a Choice Experiment: An Application to Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Janssen, Ellen M; Segal, Jodi B; Bridges, John F P

2016-10-01

Choice experiments are increasingly used to obtain patient preference information for regulatory benefit-risk assessments. Despite the importance of instrument design, there remains a paucity of literature applying good research principles. We applied a novel framework for instrument development of a choice experiment to measure type 2 diabetes mellitus treatment preferences. Applying the framework, we used evidence synthesis, expert consultation, stakeholder engagement, pretest interviews, and pilot testing to develop a best-worst scaling (BWS) and discrete choice experiment (DCE). We synthesized attributes from published DCEs for type 2 diabetes, consulted clinical experts, engaged a national advisory board, conducted local cognitive interviews, and pilot tested a national survey. From published DCEs (n = 17), ten attribute categories were extracted with cost (n = 11) having the highest relative attribute importance (RAI) (range 6-10). Clinical consultation and stakeholder engagement identified six attributes for inclusion. Cognitive pretesting with local diabetes patients (n = 25) ensured comprehension of the choice experiment. Pilot testing with patients from a national sample (n = 50) identified nausea as most important (RAI for DCE: 10 [95 % CI 8.5-11.5]; RAI for BWS: 10 [95 % CI 8.9-11.1]). The developed choice experiment contained five attributes (A1c decrease, blood glucose stability, low blood glucose, nausea, additional medicine, and cost). The framework for instrument development of a choice experiment included five stages of development and incorporated multiple stakeholder perspectives. Further comparisons of instrument development approaches are needed to identify best practices. To facilitate comparisons, researchers need to be encouraged to publish or discuss their instrument development strategies and findings.

Pilot Jerrie Cobb Trains in the Multi-Axis Space Test Inertia Facility

NASA Image and Video Library

1960-04-21

Jerrie Cobb prepares to operate the Multi-Axis Space Test Inertia Facility (MASTIF) inside the Altitude Wind Tunnel at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Lewis Research Center. The MASTIF was a three-axis rig with a pilot’s chair mounted in the center to train Project Mercury pilots to bring a spinning spacecraft under control. An astronaut was secured in a foam couch in the center of the rig. The rig was then spun on three axes from 2 to 50 rotations per minute. The pilots were tested on each of the three axis individually, then all three simultaneously. The two controllers in Cobb’s hands activated the small nitrogen gas thrusters that were used to bring the MASTIF under control. A makeshift spacecraft control panel was set up in front of the trainee’s face. Cobb was one of several female pilots who underwent the skill and endurance testing that paralleled that of the Project Mercury astronauts. In 1961 Jerrie Cobb was the first female to pass all three phases of the Mercury Astronaut Program. NASA rules, however, stipulated that only military test pilots could become astronauts and there were no female military test pilots. The seven Mercury astronauts had taken their turns on the MASTIF in February and March 1960.

New agrophysics divisions: application of GIS and fuzzy multi attributive comparison of alternatives (review)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This review paper is devoted to review the new scientific divisions that emerged in agrophysics in the last 10-15 years. Among them are the following: 1) application of Geographic Information Systems, 2) development and application of fuzzy multi attributive comparison of alternatives. In recent yea...

Review of Multi-Criteria Decision Aid for Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Urban Water Systems - MCEARD

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated sustainability assessment is part of a new paradigm for urban water decision making. Multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) is an integrative framework used in urban water sustainability assessment, which has a particular focus on utilising stakeholder participation. Here ...

Marketing the University to Student-Athletes: Understanding University Selection Criteria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Judson, Kimberly M.; James, Jeffrey D.; Aurand, Timothy W.

2004-01-01

As competition for top athletes intensifies, and as challenges associated with recruitment increase, universities must develop and employ recruiting strategies based upon attributes that student-athletes identify as important to their decision-making process. The study investigates college choice decision attributes of student-athletes, identifies…

Assessing the Reliability and Validity of Multi-Attribute Utility Procedures: An Application of the Theory of Generalizability

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-07-01

I WIWIHIHlipi pqpv<Hi^«^Rii.i ii mmw AD-A016 282 ASSESSING THE REALIBILITY AND VALIDITY OF MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY PROCEDURES: AN...more complicated and use data from actual experiments. Example 1: Analysis of raters making Importance judgments about attributes. In MAU studies...generaluablllty of JUDGE as contrasted to ÜASC. To do this, we win reanaIyze the data for each syste™ separately. This 1. valid since the initial

CPTAC Develops LinkedOmics – Public Web Portal to Analyze Multi-Omics Data Within and Across Cancer Types | Office of Cancer Clinical Proteomics Research

Cancer.gov

Multi-omics analysis has grown in popularity among biomedical researchers given the comprehensive characterization of thousands of molecular attributes in addition to clinical attributes. Several data portals have been devised to make these datasets directly available to the cancer research community. However, none of the existing data portals allow systematic exploration and interpretation of the complex relationships between the vast amount of clinical and molecular attributes. CPTAC investigator Dr.

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care. Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. Methods We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. Results The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Conclusions Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making. PMID:23601912

Auditory attention and multiattribute decision-making during a 33 h sleep-deprivation period: mean performance and between-subject dispersions.

PubMed

Linde, L; Edland, A; Bergström, M

1999-05-01

One purpose of this study was to compare attention in the evening (22:00 h), in the late night (04:00 h), in the morning (10:00 h) and in the afternoon (16:00 h) during a period of complete wakefulness beginning at 08:00 h with a mean daytime performance without sleep deprivation. Another purpose was to investigate sleep deprivation effects on a multi-attribute decision-making task with and without time pressure. Twelve sleep-deprived male students were compared with 12 male non-sleep-deprived students. Both groups were tested five times with an auditory attention and a symbol coding task. Significant declines (p < 0.05) in mean level of performance on the auditory attention task were found at 04:00, 10:00 and 16:00 h for subjects forced to the vigil. However, the effect of the sleep deprivation manifested itself even more in increased between-subject dispersions. There were no differences between time pressure and no time pressure on the decision-making task and no significant differences between sleep-deprived and non-sleep-deprived subjects in decision strategies. In fact, the pattern of decision strategies among the sleep-deprived subject was more similar to a pattern of decision strategies typical for non-stressful conditions than the pattern of decision strategies among the non-sleep-deprived subjects. This result may have been due to the fact that the sleep loss acted as a dearouser. Here too, however, the variances differed significantly among sleep-deprived and non-sleep-deprived subjects, indicating that the sleep-deprived subjects were more variable in their decision strategy pattern than the control group.

Neural Signatures of Rational and Heuristic Choice Strategies: A Single Trial ERP Analysis.

PubMed

Wichary, Szymon; Magnuski, Mikołaj; Oleksy, Tomasz; Brzezicka, Aneta

2017-01-01

In multi-attribute choice, people use heuristics to simplify decision problems. We studied the use of heuristic and rational strategies and their electrophysiological correlates. Since previous work linked the P3 ERP component to attention and decision making, we were interested whether the amplitude of this component is associated with decision strategy use. To this end, we recorded EEG when participants performed a two-alternative choice task, where they could acquire decision cues in a sequential manner and use them to make choices. We classified participants' choices as consistent with a rational Weighted Additive rule (WADD) or a simple heuristic Take The Best (TTB). Participants differed in their preference for WADD and TTB. Using a permutation-based single trial approach, we analyzed EEG responses to consecutive decision cues and their relation to the individual strategy preference. The preference for WADD over TTB was associated with overall higher signal amplitudes to decision cues in the P3 time window. Moreover, the preference for WADD was associated with similar P3 amplitudes to consecutive cues, whereas the preference for TTB was associated with substantial decreases in P3 amplitudes to consecutive cues. We also found that the preference for TTB was associated with enhanced N1 component to cues that discriminated decision alternatives, suggesting very early attention allocation to such cues by TTB users. Our results suggest that preference for either WADD or TTB has an early neural signature reflecting differences in attentional weighting of decision cues. In light of recent findings and hypotheses regarding P3, we interpret these results as indicating the involvement of catecholamine arousal systems in shaping predecisional information processing and strategy selection.

A matter of tradeoffs: reintroduction as a multiple objective decision

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Folk, Martin J.; Runge, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Decision making in guidance of reintroduction efforts is made challenging by the substantial scientific uncertainty typically involved. However, a less recognized challenge is that the management objectives are often numerous and complex. Decision makers managing reintroduction efforts are often concerned with more than just how to maximize the probability of reintroduction success from a population perspective. Decision makers are also weighing other concerns such as budget limitations, public support and/or opposition, impacts on the ecosystem, and the need to consider not just a single reintroduction effort, but conservation of the entire species. Multiple objective decision analysis is a powerful tool for formal analysis of such complex decisions. We demonstrate the use of multiple objective decision analysis in the case of the Florida non-migratory whooping crane reintroduction effort. In this case, the State of Florida was considering whether to resume releases of captive-reared crane chicks into the non-migratory whooping crane population in that state. Management objectives under consideration included maximizing the probability of successful population establishment, minimizing costs, maximizing public relations benefits, maximizing the number of birds available for alternative reintroduction efforts, and maximizing learning about the demographic patterns of reintroduced whooping cranes. The State of Florida engaged in a collaborative process with their management partners, first, to evaluate and characterize important uncertainties about system behavior, and next, to formally evaluate the tradeoffs between objectives using the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). The recommendation resulting from this process, to continue releases of cranes at a moderate intensity, was adopted by the State of Florida in late 2008. Although continued releases did not receive support from the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, this approach does provide a template for the formal, transparent consideration of multiple, potentially competing, objectives in reintroduction decision making.

Neural Signatures of Rational and Heuristic Choice Strategies: A Single Trial ERP Analysis

PubMed Central

Wichary, Szymon; Magnuski, Mikołaj; Oleksy, Tomasz; Brzezicka, Aneta

2017-01-01

In multi-attribute choice, people use heuristics to simplify decision problems. We studied the use of heuristic and rational strategies and their electrophysiological correlates. Since previous work linked the P3 ERP component to attention and decision making, we were interested whether the amplitude of this component is associated with decision strategy use. To this end, we recorded EEG when participants performed a two-alternative choice task, where they could acquire decision cues in a sequential manner and use them to make choices. We classified participants’ choices as consistent with a rational Weighted Additive rule (WADD) or a simple heuristic Take The Best (TTB). Participants differed in their preference for WADD and TTB. Using a permutation-based single trial approach, we analyzed EEG responses to consecutive decision cues and their relation to the individual strategy preference. The preference for WADD over TTB was associated with overall higher signal amplitudes to decision cues in the P3 time window. Moreover, the preference for WADD was associated with similar P3 amplitudes to consecutive cues, whereas the preference for TTB was associated with substantial decreases in P3 amplitudes to consecutive cues. We also found that the preference for TTB was associated with enhanced N1 component to cues that discriminated decision alternatives, suggesting very early attention allocation to such cues by TTB users. Our results suggest that preference for either WADD or TTB has an early neural signature reflecting differences in attentional weighting of decision cues. In light of recent findings and hypotheses regarding P3, we interpret these results as indicating the involvement of catecholamine arousal systems in shaping predecisional information processing and strategy selection. PMID:28867996

Integrated optimisation technique based on computer-aided capacity and safety evaluation for managing downstream lane-drop merging area of signalised junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, CHAI; Yiik Diew, WONG

2017-02-01

This study provides an integrated strategy, encompassing microscopic simulation, safety assessment, and multi-attribute decision-making, to optimize traffic performance at downstream merging area of signalized intersections. A Fuzzy Cellular Automata (FCA) model is developed to replicate microscopic movement and merging behavior. Based on simulation experiment, the proposed FCA approach is able to provide capacity and safety evaluation of different traffic scenarios. The results are then evaluated through data envelopment analysis (DEA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Optimized geometric layout and control strategies are then suggested for various traffic conditions. An optimal lane-drop distance that is dependent on traffic volume and speed limit can thus be established at the downstream merging area.

Heterogeneous Face Attribute Estimation: A Deep Multi-Task Learning Approach.

PubMed

Han, Hu; K Jain, Anil; Shan, Shiguang; Chen, Xilin

2017-08-10

Face attribute estimation has many potential applications in video surveillance, face retrieval, and social media. While a number of methods have been proposed for face attribute estimation, most of them did not explicitly consider the attribute correlation and heterogeneity (e.g., ordinal vs. nominal and holistic vs. local) during feature representation learning. In this paper, we present a Deep Multi-Task Learning (DMTL) approach to jointly estimate multiple heterogeneous attributes from a single face image. In DMTL, we tackle attribute correlation and heterogeneity with convolutional neural networks (CNNs) consisting of shared feature learning for all the attributes, and category-specific feature learning for heterogeneous attributes. We also introduce an unconstrained face database (LFW+), an extension of public-domain LFW, with heterogeneous demographic attributes (age, gender, and race) obtained via crowdsourcing. Experimental results on benchmarks with multiple face attributes (MORPH II, LFW+, CelebA, LFWA, and FotW) show that the proposed approach has superior performance compared to state of the art. Finally, evaluations on a public-domain face database (LAP) with a single attribute show that the proposed approach has excellent generalization ability.

Increasing patient involvement in the diabetic foot pathway: a pilot randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

McBride, E; Hacking, B; O'Carroll, R; Young, M; Jahr, J; Borthwick, C; Callander, A; Berrada, Z

2016-11-01

This pilot study aimed to explore whether the use of an intervention to increase shared decision-making (Decision Navigation) increased decision self-efficacy and foot-treatment adherence in patients with a diabetic foot ulcer. Fifty-six patients with a diabetic foot ulcer were randomized to receive Decision Navigation (N = 30) or usual care (N = 26). Primary outcomes included decision self-efficacy, adherence to foot treatment as reported by the participant and adherence to foot treatment as reported by the clinician. Secondary outcomes included foot ulcer healing rate, health-related quality of life, decision conflict and decision regret. Despite participants rating Decision Navigation as very helpful, mixed analyses of variance revealed no differences in decision self-efficacy or adherence between those receiving Decision Navigation and those receiving usual care. There were no differences between groups with regards to the secondary outcomes, with the exception of decision conflict which increased over time (12 weeks) for those receiving Decision Navigation. An intervention that facilitated patient involvement in treatment decisions did not have any impact on decisional confidence or adherence to foot treatment. This does not provide support for the suggestion that personalized care can improve health-related outcomes at this progressed stage of the patient's disease trajectory. We suggest that the diabetic foot population may benefit from interventions aimed at increasing motivation to engage with care pathways, centred on challenging personal controllability beliefs. © 2016 Diabetes UK.

A multi-sensor monitoring system of human physiology and daily activities.

PubMed

Doherty, Sean T; Oh, Paul

2012-04-01

To present the design and pilot test results of a continuous multi-sensor monitoring system of real-world physiological conditions and daily life (activities, travel, exercise, and food consumption), culminating in a Web-based graphical decision-support interface. The system includes a set of wearable sensors wirelessly connected to a "smartphone" with a continuously running software application that compresses and transmits the data to a central server. Sensors include a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, electrocardiogram (ECG), three-axis accelerometer, and continuous blood glucose monitor. A food/medicine diary and prompted recall activity diary were also used. The pilot test involved 40 type 2 diabetic patients monitored over a 72-h period. All but three subjects were successfully monitored for the full study period. Smartphones proved to be an effective hub for managing multiple streams of data but required attention to data compression and battery consumption issues. ECG, accelerometer, and blood glucose devices performed adequately as long as subjects wore them. GPS tracking for a full day was feasible, although significant efforts are needed to impute missing data. Activity detection algorithms were successful in identifying activities and trip modes but could benefit by incorporating accelerometer data. The prompted recall diary was an effective tool for augmenting algorithm results, although subjects reported some difficulties with it. The food and medicine diary was completed fully, although end times and medicine dosages were occasionally missing. The unique combination of sensors holds promise for increasing accuracy and reducing burden associated with collecting individual-level activity and physiological data under real-world conditions, but significant data processing issues remain. Such data will provide new opportunities to explore the impacts of human geography and daily lifestyle on health at a fine spatial/temporal scale.

A decision aid for men with early stage prostate cancer: theoretical basis and a test by surrogate patients

PubMed Central

Feldman‐Stewart, Deb; Brundage, Michael D.; Van Manen, Lori

2008-01-01

Background We developed a decision aid for patients with curable prostate cancer based on Svenson’s DiffCon Theory of Decision Making. This study was designed to determine if surrogate patients using the aid could understand the information presented, complete all tasks, show evidence of differentiation, and arrive at a preferred treatment choice. Methods Men, at least 50 years old and never diagnosed with prostate cancer, were recruited through local advertisements. Participants were asked to imagine that they were a case‐scenario patient. Then they completed the decision aid interview, which included three components: (i) information presentation, with comprehension questions, (ii) exercises to help identify attributes important to the decision, and (iii) value‐clarification exercises. Results Sixty‐nine men volunteered. They had a mean age of 61.2 (range 50–83) years, 37% had no formal education beyond high school, and 87% were living with a partner. All participants completed all aspects of the interview. They answered an average of 10 comprehension questions each, with a mean of 94.7% correct without a prompt. Each attribute in the information presented was identified by at least one participant as important to his decision. Participants identified a median of five attributes as important (ranges 1–14) at each of three points during the interview; 75% changed at least one important attribute during the interview. Forty‐nine per cent of participants also identified attributes as important that were not included in the presented information. Participants showed a wide range of values in each of seven trade‐off exercises. Eighty‐eight per cent of participants showed evidence of differentiation; 75% had a clear treatment preference by the end of the interview. Conclusions Our decision aid appears to meet its goals for surrogate patients and illustrates the strengths of the DiffCon theory. The ability of the aid to accommodate wide variability, both in information needs and in important attributes, is a particular strength of the decision aid. It now requires testing in patients with prostate cancer. PMID:11703496

Maintenance Decision Support System: Pilot Study and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Phase 2.5)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

This project focused on several tasks: development of in-vehicle hardware that permits implementation of an MDSS, development of software to collect and process road and weather data, a cost-benefit study, and pilot-scale implementation. Two Automati...

Maintenance Decision Support System : Pilot Study and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Phase 2)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

This project focused on several tasks: development of in-vehicle hardware that permits implementation of an MDSS, development of software to collect and process road and weather data, a cost-benefit study, and pilot-scale implementation. Two Automati...

Non-monetary valuation using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Sensitivity of additive aggregation methods to scaling and compensation assumptions

EPA Science Inventory

Analytical methods for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) support the non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services for environmental decision making. Many published case studies transform ecosystem service outcomes into a common metric and aggregate the outcomes to set land ...

Deciding Factors: Do Factors beyond Achievement Influence Teachers' Student Placement Decisions?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riley, Tasha

2014-01-01

Since teachers' decisions potentially have consequences for learners' future educational and life opportunities, it is imperative to determine the basis of teachers' decision-making in order to determine whether it is discriminatory. This study combines qualitative and quantitative methods towards a multi-school, multi-region study of Australian…

Identification and Prioritization of Important Attributes of Disease-Modifying Drugs in Decision Making among Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: A Nominal Group Technique and Best-Worst Scaling

PubMed Central

Kremer, Ingrid E. H.; van der Weijden, Trudy; van de Kolk, Ilona

2016-01-01

Objectives Understanding the preferences of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) for disease-modifying drugs and involving these patients in clinical decision making can improve the concordance between medical decisions and patient values and may, subsequently, improve adherence to disease-modifying drugs. This study aims first to identify which characteristics–or attributes–of disease-modifying drugs influence patients´ decisions about these treatments and second to quantify the attributes’ relative importance among patients. Methods First, three focus groups of relapsing-remitting MS patients were formed to compile a preliminary list of attributes using a nominal group technique. Based on this qualitative research, a survey with several choice tasks (best-worst scaling) was developed to prioritize attributes, asking a larger patient group to choose the most and least important attributes. The attributes’ mean relative importance scores (RIS) were calculated. Results Nineteen patients reported 34 attributes during the focus groups and 185 patients evaluated the importance of the attributes in the survey. The effect on disease progression received the highest RIS (RIS = 9.64, 95% confidence interval: [9.48–9.81]), followed by quality of life (RIS = 9.21 [9.00–9.42]), relapse rate (RIS = 7.76 [7.39–8.13]), severity of side effects (RIS = 7.63 [7.33–7.94]) and relapse severity (RIS = 7.39 [7.06–7.73]). Subgroup analyses showed heterogeneity in preference of patients. For example, side effect-related attributes were statistically more important for patients who had no experience in using disease-modifying drugs compared to experienced patients (p < .001). Conclusions This study shows that, on average, patients valued effectiveness and unwanted effects as most important. Clinicians should be aware of the average preferences but also that attributes of disease-modifying drugs are valued differently by different patients. Person-centred clinical decision making would be needed and requires eliciting individual preferences. PMID:27812117

A process for Decision-making after Pilot and feasibility Trials (ADePT): development following a feasibility study of a complex intervention for pelvic organ prolapse

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Current Medical Research Council (MRC) guidance on complex interventions advocates pilot trials and feasibility studies as part of a phased approach to the development, testing, and evaluation of healthcare interventions. In this paper we discuss the results of a recent feasibility study and pilot trial for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of pelvic floor muscle training for prolapse (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01136889). The ways in which researchers decide to respond to the results of feasibility work may have significant repercussions for both the nature and degree of tension between internal and external validity in a definitive trial. Methods We used methodological issues to classify and analyze the problems that arose in the feasibility study. Four centers participated with the aim of randomizing 50 women. Women were eligible if they had prolapse of any type, of stage I to IV, and had a pessary successfully fitted. Postal questionnaires were administered at baseline, 6 months, and 7 months post-randomization. After identifying problems arising within the pilot study we then sought to locate potential solutions that might minimize the trade-off between a subsequent explanatory versus pragmatic trial. Results The feasibility study pointed to significant potential problems in relation to participant recruitment, features of the intervention, acceptability of the intervention to participants, and outcome measurement. Finding minimal evidence to support our decision-making regarding the transition from feasibility work to a trial, we developed a systematic process (A process for Decision-making after Pilot and feasibility Trials (ADePT)) which we subsequently used as a guide. The process sought to: 1) encourage the systematic identification and appraisal of problems and potential solutions; 2) improve the transparency of decision-making processes; and 3) reveal the tensions that exist between pragmatic and explanatory choices. Conclusions We have developed a process that may aid researchers in their attempt to identify the most appropriate solutions to problems identified within future pilot and feasibility RCTs. The process includes three key steps: a decision about the type of problem, the identification of all solutions (whether addressed within the intervention, trial design or clinical context), and a systematic appraisal of these solutions. PMID:24160371

Building a picture: Prioritisation of exotic diseases for the pig industry in Australia using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Brookes, V J; Hernández-Jover, M; Cowled, B; Holyoake, P K; Ward, M P

2014-01-01

Diseases that are exotic to the pig industry in Australia were prioritised using a multi-criteria decision analysis framework that incorporated weights of importance for a range of criteria important to industry stakeholders. Measurements were collected for each disease for nine criteria that described potential disease impacts. A total score was calculated for each disease using a weighted sum value function that aggregated the nine disease criterion measurements and weights of importance for the criteria that were previously elicited from two groups of industry stakeholders. One stakeholder group placed most value on the impacts of disease on livestock, and one group placed more value on the zoonotic impacts of diseases. Prioritisation lists ordered by disease score were produced for both of these groups. Vesicular diseases were found to have the highest priority for the group valuing disease impacts on livestock, followed by acute forms of African and classical swine fever, then highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. The group who valued zoonotic disease impacts prioritised rabies, followed by Japanese encephalitis, Eastern equine encephalitis and Nipah virus, interspersed with vesicular diseases. The multi-criteria framework used in this study systematically prioritised diseases using a multi-attribute theory based technique that provided transparency and repeatability in the process. Flexibility of the framework was demonstrated by aggregating the criterion weights from more than one stakeholder group with the disease measurements for the criteria. This technique allowed industry stakeholders to be active in resource allocation for their industry without the need to be disease experts. We believe it is the first prioritisation of livestock diseases using values provided by industry stakeholders. The prioritisation lists will be used by industry stakeholders to identify diseases for further risk analysis and disease spread modelling to understand biosecurity risks to this industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment (MIRA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

MIRA is an approach that facilitates stakeholder engagement for collaborative multi-objective decision making. MIRA is designed to facilitate and support an inclusive, explicit, transparent, iterative learning-based decision process.

Contextual Attributes of Indirect Bullying Situations that Influence Teachers' Decisions to Intervene

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blain-Arcaro, Christine; Smith, J. David; Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather

2012-01-01

Indirect bullying occurs frequently yet receives little attention by teachers. Using conjoint analysis, we examined the influence of situational attributes on teachers' decisions to intervene in indirect bullying. Results revealed that teachers (N = 235) were most influenced by victimized children's distress. Additional analyses identified two…

Critical Thinking as a Leadership Attribute.

PubMed

Werner, Stacy H; Bleich, Michael R

2017-01-01

Leaders are tasked with making decisions that have substantial impact on an organization's well-being. Decision making requires critical thinking and requisite action taking. The nature of critical thinking and how professional development educators can strengthen this attribute are presented. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2017;48(1):9-11. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

A new web-based framework development for fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making.

PubMed

Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

2016-01-01

Fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making (FMCGDM) process is usually used when a group of decision-makers faces imprecise data or linguistic variables to solve the problems. However, this process contains many methods that require many time-consuming calculations depending on the number of criteria, alternatives and decision-makers in order to reach the optimal solution. In this study, a web-based FMCGDM framework that offers decision-makers a fast and reliable response service is proposed. The proposed framework includes commonly used tools for multi-criteria decision-making problems such as fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The integration of these methods enables taking advantages of the strengths and complements each method's weakness. Finally, a case study of location selection for landfill waste in Morocco is performed to demonstrate how this framework can facilitate decision-making process. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can successfully accomplish the goal of this study.

Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kronfeld, Kevin M. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

An airborne weather radar system, the Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR), with enhanced on-board weather radar data processing was developed and tested. The system features additional weather data that is uplinked from ground-based sources, specialized data processing, and limited automatic radar control to search for hazardous weather. National Weather Service (NWS) ground-based Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) information is used by the EWxR system to augment the on-board weather radar information. The system will simultaneously display NEXRAD and on-board weather radar information in a split-view format. The on-board weather radar includes an automated or hands-free storm-finding feature that optimizes the radar returns by automatically adjusting the tilt and range settings for the current altitude above the terrain and searches for storm cells near the atmospheric 0-degree isotherm. A rule-based decision aid was developed to automatically characterize cells as hazardous, possibly-hazardous, or non-hazardous based upon attributes of that cell. Cell attributes are determined based on data from the on-board radar and from ground-based radars. A flight path impact prediction algorithm was developed to help pilots to avoid hazardous weather along their flight plan and their mission. During development the system was tested on the NASA B757 aircraft and final tests were conducted on the Rockwell Collins Sabreliner.

Computer simulation of a single pilot flying a modern high-performance helicopter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zipf, Mark E.; Vogt, William G.; Mickle, Marlin H.; Hoelzeman, Ronald G.; Kai, Fei; Mihaloew, James R.

1988-01-01

Presented is a computer simulation of a human response pilot model able to execute operational flight maneuvers and vehicle stabilization of a modern high-performance helicopter. Low-order, single-variable, human response mechanisms, integrated to form a multivariable pilot structure, provide a comprehensive operational control over the vehicle. Evaluations of the integrated pilot were performed by direct insertion into a nonlinear, total-force simulation environment provided by NASA Lewis. Comparisons between the integrated pilot structure and single-variable pilot mechanisms are presented. Static and dynamically alterable configurations of the pilot structure are introduced to simulate pilot activities during vehicle maneuvers. These configurations, in conjunction with higher level, decision-making processes, are considered for use where guidance and navigational procedures, operational mode transfers, and resource sharing are required.

A Scale-up Approach for Film Coating Process Based on Surface Roughness as the Critical Quality Attribute.

PubMed

Yoshino, Hiroyuki; Hara, Yuko; Dohi, Masafumi; Yamashita, Kazunari; Hakomori, Tadashi; Kimura, Shin-Ichiro; Iwao, Yasunori; Itai, Shigeru

2018-04-01

Scale-up approaches for film coating process have been established for each type of film coating equipment from thermodynamic and mechanical analyses for several decades. The objective of the present study was to establish a versatile scale-up approach for film coating process applicable to commercial production that is based on critical quality attribute (CQA) using the Quality by Design (QbD) approach and is independent of the equipment used. Experiments on a pilot scale using the Design of Experiment (DoE) approach were performed to find a suitable CQA from surface roughness, contact angle, color difference, and coating film properties by terahertz spectroscopy. Surface roughness was determined to be a suitable CQA from a quantitative appearance evaluation. When surface roughness was fixed as the CQA, the water content of the film-coated tablets was determined to be the critical material attribute (CMA), a parameter that does not depend on scale or equipment. Finally, to verify the scale-up approach determined from the pilot scale, experiments on a commercial scale were performed. The good correlation between the surface roughness (CQA) and the water content (CMA) identified at the pilot scale was also retained at the commercial scale, indicating that our proposed method should be useful as a scale-up approach for film coating process.

An Intensification Approach to Double-Block Algebra: A Pilot Implementation of Intensified Algebra in A Large Urban School District

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tidd, Simon T.; Stoelinga, Timothy M.; Bush-Richards, Angela M.; De Sena, Donna L.; Dwyer, Theodore J.

2018-01-01

Double-block instruction has become a popular strategy for supporting struggling mathematics students in algebra I. Despite its widespread adoption, little consistent evidence supports the attributes of a successful double-block design or the effectiveness of this instructional strategy. In this study, the authors examine a pilot implementation of…

Learned Helplessness in Children with Visual Handicaps: A Pilot Study of Expectations, Persistence, and Attributions. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Head, Dan; And Others

This report describes the outcomes of a one-year federally funded pilot study of 14 students with low vision or blindness (grades 3-6) and 13 teachers. The study was designed to generate practical classroom assessment procedures for measuring "learned helplessness" and recommendations for a conceptual intervention model for use in the classroom.…

Incorporating Data Link Features into a Multi-Function Display to Support Self-Separation and Spacing Tasks for General Aviation Pilots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Catherine A.; Murdoch, Jennifer L.; Consiglio, Maria C.; WIlliams, Daniel M.

2005-01-01

One objective of the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Higher Volume Operations (HVO) project is to increase the capacity and utilization of small non-towered, non-radar equipped airports by transferring traffic management activities to an automated Airport Management Module (AMM) and separation responsibilities to general aviation (GA) pilots. Implementation of this concept required the development of a research Multi-Function Display (MFD) to support the interactive communications between pilots and the AMM. The interface also had to accommodate traffic awareness, self-separation, and spacing tasks through dynamic messaging and symbology for flight path conformance and conflict detection and alerting (CDA). The display served as the mechanism to support the examination of the viability of executing instrument operations designed for SATS designated airports. Results of simulation and flight experiments conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Langley Research Center indicate that the concept, as facilitated by the research MFD, did not increase pilots subjective workload levels or reduce their situation awareness (SA). Post-test usability assessments revealed that pilots preferred using the enhanced MFD to execute flight procedures, reporting improved SA over conventional instrument flight rules (IFR) procedures.

Watermark: An Application and Methodology and Application for Interactive and intelligent Decision Support for Groundwater Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.; Wagner, K.; Schwartz, S.; Gentle, J. N., Jr.

2016-12-01

Critical water resources face the effects of historic drought, increased demand, and potential contamination, the need has never been greater to develop resources to effectively communicate conservation and protection across a broad audience and geographical area. The Watermark application and macro-analysis methodology merges topical analysis of context rich corpus from policy texts with multi-attributed solution sets from integrated models of water resource and other subsystems, such as mineral, food, energy, or environmental systems to construct a scalable, robust, and reproducible approach for identifying links between policy and science knowledge bases. The Watermark application is an open-source, interactive workspace to support science-based visualization and decision making. Designed with generalization in mind, Watermark is a flexible platform that allows for data analysis and inclusion of large datasets with an interactive front-end capable of connecting with other applications as well as advanced computing resources. In addition, the Watermark analysis methodology offers functionality that streamlines communication with non-technical users for policy, education, or engagement with groups around scientific topics of societal relevance. The technology stack for Watermark was selected with the goal of creating a robust and dynamic modular codebase that can be adjusted to fit many use cases and scale to support usage loads that range between simple data display to complex scientific simulation-based modelling and analytics. The methodology uses to topical analysis and simulation-optimization to systematically analyze the policy and management realities of resource systems and explicitly connect the social and problem contexts with science-based and engineering knowledge from models. A case example demonstrates use in a complex groundwater resources management study highlighting multi-criteria spatial decision making and uncertainty comparisons.

Responding to Vaccine Safety Signals during Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Maro, Judith C.; Fryback, Dennis G.; Lieu, Tracy A.; Lee, Grace M.; Martin, David B.

2014-01-01

Background Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system. Methods We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons. Results Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3∶1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior. Conclusions The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior. PMID:25536228

Evaluating Post-Fire Forest Resilience Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

PubMed

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Cognitive Workload and Psychophysiological Parameters During Multitask Activity in Helicopter Pilots.

PubMed

Gaetan, Sophie; Dousset, Erick; Marqueste, Tanguy; Bringoux, Lionel; Bourdin, Christophe; Vercher, Jean-Louis; Besson, Patricia

2015-12-01

Helicopter pilots are involved in a complex multitask activity, implying overuse of cognitive resources, which may result in piloting task impairment or in decision-making failure. Studies usually investigate this phenomenon in well-controlled, poorly ecological situations by focusing on the correlation between physiological values and either cognitive workload or emotional state. This study aimed at jointly exploring workload induced by a realistic simulated helicopter flight mission and emotional state, as well as physiological markers. The experiment took place in the helicopter full flight dynamic simulator. Six participants had to fly on two missions. Workload level, skin conductance, RMS-EMG, and emotional state were assessed. Joint analysis of psychological and physiological parameters associated with workload estimation revealed particular dynamics in each of three profiles. 1) Expert pilots showed a slight increase of measured physiological parameters associated with the increase in difficulty level. Workload estimates never reached the highest level and the emotional state for this profile only referred to positive emotions with low emotional intensity. 2) Non-Expert pilots showed increasing physiological values as the perceived workload increased. However, their emotional state referred to either positive or negative emotions, with a greater variability in emotional intensity. 3) Intermediate pilots were similar to Expert pilots regarding emotional states and similar to Non-Expert pilots regarding physiological patterns. Overall, high interindividual variability of these results highlight the complex link between physiological and psychological parameters with workload, and question whether physiology alone could predict a pilot's inability to make the right decision at the right time.

The use of decision tree induction and artificial neural networks for recognizing the geochemical distribution patterns of LREE in the Choghart deposit, Central Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaremotlagh, S.; Hezarkhani, A.

2017-04-01

Some evidences of rare earth elements (REE) concentrations are found in iron oxide-apatite (IOA) deposits which are located in Central Iranian microcontinent. There are many unsolved problems about the origin and metallogenesis of IOA deposits in this district. Although it is considered that felsic magmatism and mineralization were simultaneous in the district, interaction of multi-stage hydrothermal-magmatic processes within the Early Cambrian volcano-sedimentary sequence probably caused some epigenetic mineralizations. Secondary geological processes (e.g., multi-stage mineralization, alteration, and weathering) have affected on variations of major elements and possible redistribution of REE in IOA deposits. Hence, the geochemical behaviors and distribution patterns of REE are expected to be complicated in different zones of these deposits. The aim of this paper is recognizing LREE distribution patterns based on whole-rock chemical compositions and automatic discovery of their geochemical rules. For this purpose, the pattern recognition techniques including decision tree and neural network were applied on a high-dimensional geochemical dataset from Choghart IOA deposit. Because some data features were irrelevant or redundant in recognizing the distribution patterns of each LREE, a greedy attribute subset selection technique was employed to select the best subset of predictors used in classification tasks. The decision trees (CART algorithm) were pruned optimally to more accurately categorize independent test data than unpruned ones. The most effective classification rules were extracted from the pruned tree to describe the meaningful relationships between the predictors and different concentrations of LREE. A feed-forward artificial neural network was also applied to reliably predict the influence of various rock compositions on the spatial distribution patterns of LREE with a better performance than the decision tree induction. The findings of this study could be effectively used to visualize the LREE distribution patterns as geochemical maps.

Namibian Flood Early Warning SensorWeb Pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandl, Daniel; Policelli, Fritz; Frye, Stuart; Cappelare, Pat; Langenhove, Guido Van; Szarzynski, Joerg; Sohlberg, Rob

2010-01-01

The major goal of the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project is a scientifically sound, operational trans-boundary flood management decision support system for Southern African region to provide useful flood and waterborne disease forecasting tools for local decision makers. The Pilot Project established under the auspices of: Namibian Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry (MAWF), Department of Water Affairs; Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS), Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS); and moderated by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). The effort consists of identifying and prototyping technology which enables the rapid gathering and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster management and water-borne disease management.

Pilot-Assisted Channel Estimation for Orthogonal Multi-Carrier DS-CDMA with Frequency-Domain Equalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shima, Tomoyuki; Tomeba, Hiromichi; Adachi, Fumiyuki

Orthogonal multi-carrier direct sequence code division multiple access (orthogonal MC DS-CDMA) is a combination of time-domain spreading and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). In orthogonal MC DS-CDMA, the frequency diversity gain can be obtained by applying frequency-domain equalization (FDE) based on minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion to a block of OFDM symbols and can improve the bit error rate (BER) performance in a severe frequency-selective fading channel. FDE requires an accurate estimate of the channel gain. The channel gain can be estimated by removing the pilot modulation in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose a pilot-assisted channel estimation suitable for orthogonal MC DS-CDMA with FDE and evaluate, by computer simulation, the BER performance in a frequency-selective Rayleigh fading channel.

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

14 CFR 91.1053 - Crewmember experience.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...) AIR TRAFFIC AND GENERAL OPERATING RULES GENERAL OPERATING AND FLIGHT RULES Fractional Ownership... and ratings: (1) Total flight time for all pilots: (i) Pilot in command—A minimum of 1,500 hours. (ii) Second in command—A minimum of 500 hours. (2) For multi-engine turbine-powered fixed-wing and powered...

Pilot testing of SHRP 2 reliability data and analytical products: Florida. [supporting datasets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

SHRP 2 initiated the L38 project to pilot test products from five of the programs completed projects. The products support reliability estimation and use based on data analyses, analytical techniques, and decision-making framework. The L38 project...

Diverter Decision Aiding for In-Flight Diversions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudolph, Frederick M.; Homoki, David A.; Sexton, George A.

1990-01-01

It was determined that artificial intelligence technology can provide pilots with the help they need in making the complex decisions concerning en route changes in a flight plan. A diverter system should have the capability to take all of the available information and produce a recommendation to the pilot. Phase three illustrated that using Joshua to develop rules for an expert system and a Statice database provided additional flexibility by permitting the development of dynamic weighting of diversion relevant parameters. This increases the fidelity of the AI functions cited as useful in aiding the pilot to perform situational assessment, navigation rerouting, flight planning/replanning, and maneuver execution. Additionally, a prototype pilot-vehicle interface (PVI) was designed providing for the integration of both text and graphical based information. Advanced technologies were applied to PVI design, resulting in a hierarchical menu based architecture to increase the efficiency of information transfer while reducing expected workload. Additional efficiency was gained by integrating spatial and text displays into an integrated user interface.

The Effect of NEXRAD Image Looping and National Convective Weather Forecast Product on Pilot Decision Making in the Use of a Cockpit Weather Information Display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burgess, Malcolm A.; Thomas, Rickey P.

2004-01-01

This experiment investigated improvements to cockpit weather displays to better support the hazardous weather avoidance decision-making of general aviation pilots. Forty-eight general aviation pilots were divided into three equal groups and presented with a simulated flight scenario involving embedded convective activity. The control group had access to conventional sources of pre-flight and in-flight weather products. The two treatment groups were provided with a weather display that presented NEXRAD mosaic images, graphic depiction of METARs, and text METARs. One treatment group used a NEXRAD image looping feature and the second group used the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) product overlaid on the NEXRAD display. Both of the treatment displays provided a significant increase in situation awareness but, they provided incomplete information required to deal with hazardous convective weather conditions, and would require substantial pilot training to permit their safe and effective use.

Enhanced decision making through neuroscience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szu, Harold; Jung, TP; Makeig, Scott

2012-06-01

We propose to enhance the decision making of pilot, co-pilot teams, over a range of vehicle platforms, with the aid of neuroscience. The goal is to optimize this collaborative decision making interplay in time-critical, stressful situations. We will research and measure human facial expressions, personality typing, and brainwave measurements to help answer questions related to optimum decision-making in group situations. Further, we propose to examine the nature of intuition in this decision making process. The brainwave measurements will be facilitated by a University of California, San Diego (UCSD) developed wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) sensing cap. We propose to measure brainwaves covering the whole head area with an electrode density of N=256, and yet keep within the limiting wireless bandwidth capability of m=32 readouts. This is possible because solving Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and finding the hidden brainwave sources allow us to concentrate selective measurements with an organized sparse source -->s sensing matrix [Φs], rather than the traditional purely random compressive sensing (CS) matrix[Φ].

Based on a multi-agent system for multi-scale simulation and application of household's LUCC: a case study for Mengcha village, Mizhi county, Shaanxi province.

PubMed

Chen, Hai; Liang, Xiaoying; Li, Rui

2013-01-01

Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) offer a conceptual approach to include multi-actor decision making into models of land use change. Through the simulation based on the MAS, this paper tries to show the application of MAS in the micro scale LUCC, and reveal the transformation mechanism of difference scale. This paper starts with a description of the context of MAS research. Then, it adopts the Nested Spatial Choice (NSC) method to construct the multi-scale LUCC decision-making model. And a case study for Mengcha village, Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province is reported. Finally, the potentials and drawbacks of the following approach is discussed and concluded. From our design and implementation of the MAS in multi-scale model, a number of observations and conclusions can be drawn on the implementation and future research directions. (1) The use of the LUCC decision-making and multi-scale transformation framework provides, according to us, a more realistic modeling of multi-scale decision making process. (2) By using continuous function, rather than discrete function, to construct the decision-making of the households is more realistic to reflect the effect. (3) In this paper, attempts have been made to give a quantitative analysis to research the household interaction. And it provides the premise and foundation for researching the communication and learning among the households. (4) The scale transformation architecture constructed in this paper helps to accumulate theory and experience for the interaction research between the micro land use decision-making and the macro land use landscape pattern. Our future research work will focus on: (1) how to rational use risk aversion principle, and put the rule on rotation between household parcels into model. (2) Exploring the methods aiming at researching the household decision-making over a long period, it allows us to find the bridge between the long-term LUCC data and the short-term household decision-making. (3) Researching the quantitative method and model, especially the scenario analysis model which may reflect the interaction among different household types.

HMDs as enablers of situation awareness: the OODA loop and sense-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melzer, James E.

2012-06-01

Helmet-Mounted Displays have been shown to be powerful tools that can unlock the pilot from the interior of the cockpit or the forward line of sight of the Head-Up Display. Imagery that is presented in one of three reference frames can enable the pilots to do their job more effectively while simultaneously decreasing workload. This paper will review key attributes of Situation Awareness, the Observe/Orient/Decide/Act (OODA) Loop and Sensemaking and how HMDs can aid the pilot in achieving these ideal cognitive states.

Biofuel Pilot at St. Juliens Creek and Proposed NAVFAC Policy on Use of Biofuel In Heating Boilers

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (NAVFAC EXWC) was tasked by NAVFAC HQ with facilitating a pilot study on the use of B20 Biodiesel (20...by NAVFAC HQ with facilitating a pilot study on the use of B20 Biodiesel (20 % biofuel mixed with 80 % fossil fuel oil hereafter referred to as B20...renewable) attributes of B20 as compared to conventional fossil fuel oil, and the ease of boiler and fuel system conversion to the biodiesel fuel

A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

A decision support tool for selecting the optimal sewage sludge treatment.

PubMed

Turunen, Ville; Sorvari, Jaana; Mikola, Anna

2018-02-01

Sewage sludge contains significant amounts of resources, such as nutrients and organic matter. At the same time, the organic contaminants (OC) found in sewage sludge are of growing concern. Consequently, in many European countries incineration is currently favored over recycling in agriculture. This study presents a Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT)-based decision support tool (DST) for facilitating sludge treatment decisions. Essential decision criteria were recognized and prioritized, i.e., weighted, by experts from water utilities. Since the fate of organic contaminants was in focus, a simple scoring method was developed to take into account their environmental risks. The final DST assigns each sludge treatment method a preference score expressing its superiority compared to alternative methods. The DST was validated by testing it with data from two Finnish municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). The validation results of the first case study preferred sludge pyrolysis (preference score: 0.629) to other alternatives: composting and incineration (score 0.580, and 0.484 respectively). The preference scores were influenced by WWTP dependent factors, i.e., the operating environment and the weighting of the criteria. A lack of data emerged as the main practical limitation. Therefore, not all of the relevant criteria could be included in the value tree. More data are needed on the effects of treatment methods on the availability of nutrients, the quality of organic matter and sludge-borne OCs. Despite these shortcomings, the DST proved useful and adaptable in decision-making. It can also help achieve a more transparent, understandable and comprehensive decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Decision-Making Tool to Develop Spent Fuel Strategies for Research Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beatty, Randy L; Harrison, Thomas J

IAEA Member States operating or having previously operated a Research Reactor are responsible for the safe and sustainable management and disposal of associated radioactive waste, including research reactor spent nuclear fuel (RRSNF). This includes the safe disposal of RRSNF or the corresponding equivalent waste returned after spent fuel reprocessing. One key challenge to developing general recommendations lies in the diversity of spent fuel types, locations and national/regional circumstances rather than mass or volume alone. This is especially true given that RRSNF inventories are relatively small, and research reactors are rarely operated at a high power level or duration typical ofmore » commercial power plants. Presently, many countries lack an effective long-term policy for managing RRSNF. This paper presents results of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP) #T33001 on Options and Technologies for Managing the Back End of the Research Reactor Nuclear Fuel Cycle which includes an Integrated Decision Making Tool called BRIDE (Back-end Research reactor Integrated Decision Evaluation). This is a multi-attribute decision-making tool that combines the Total Estimated Cost of each life-cycle scenario with Non-economic factors such as public acceptance, technical maturity etc and ranks optional back-end scenarios specific to member states situations in order to develop a specific member state strategic plan with a preferred or recommended option for managing spent fuel from Research Reactors.« less

Towards the ecotourism: a decision support model for the assessment of sustainability of mountain huts in the Alps.

PubMed

Stubelj Ars, Mojca; Bohanec, Marko

2010-12-01

This paper studies mountain hut infrastructure in the Alps as an important element of ecotourism in the Alpine region. To improve the decision-making process regarding the implementation of future infrastructure and improvement of existing infrastructure in the vulnerable natural environment of mountain ecosystems, a new decision support model has been developed. The methodology is based on qualitative multi-attribute modelling supported by the DEXi software. The integrated rule-based model is hierarchical and consists of two submodels that cover the infrastructure of the mountain huts and that of the huts' surroundings. The final goal for the designed tool is to help minimize the ecological footprint of tourists in environmentally sensitive and undeveloped mountain areas and contribute to mountain ecotourism. The model has been tested in the case study of four mountain huts in Triglav National Park in Slovenia. Study findings provide a new empirical approach to evaluating existing mountain infrastructure and predicting improvements for the future. The assessment results are of particular interest for decision makers in protected areas, such as Alpine national parks managers and administrators. In a way, this model proposes an approach to the management assessment of mountain huts with the main aim of increasing the quality of life of mountain environment visitors as well as the satisfaction of tourists who may eventually become ecotourists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.