Plastic Pipe Failure, Risk, and Threat Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-29

The three primary failure modes that may be exhibited by polyethylene (PE) gas pipe materials were described in detail. The modes are: ductile rupture, slow crack growth (SCG), and rapid crack propagation (RCP). Short term mechanical tests were evalu...

Study on pipe deflection by using numerical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husaini; Zaki Mubarak, Amir; Agustiar, Rizki

2018-05-01

Piping systems are widely used in a refinery or oil and gas industry. The piping system must be properly designed to avoid failure or leakage. Pipe stress analysis is conducted to analyze the loads and critical stress occurred, so that the failure of the pipe can be avoided. In this research, it is analyzed the deflection of a pipe by using Finite Element Method. The pipe is made of A358 / 304SS SCH10S Stainless Steel. It is 16 inches in size with the distance between supports is 10 meters. The fluid flown is Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) with the range of temperature of -120 ° C to -170 ° C, and a density of 461.1 kg / m 3. The flow of LNG causes deflection of the pipe. The pipe deflection must be within the permissible tolerable range. The objective is to analyze the deflection occurred in the piping system. Based on the calculation and simulation, the deflection is 4.4983 mm, which is below the maximum limit of deflection allowed, which is 20.3 mm.

Predicting, examining, and evaluating FAC in US power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cohn, M.J.; Garud, Y.S.; Raad, J. de

1999-11-01

There have been many pipe failures in fossil and nuclear power plant piping systems caused by flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC). In some piping systems, this failure mechanism maybe the most important type of damage to mitigate because FAC damage has led to catastrophic failures and fatalities. Detecting the damage and mitigating the problem can significantly reduce future forced outages and increase personnel safety. This article discusses the implementation of recent developments to select FAC inspection locations, perform cost-effective examinations, evaluate results, and mitigate FAC failures. These advances include implementing the combination of software to assist in selecting examination locations and anmore » improved pulsed eddy current technique to scan for wall thinning without removing insulation. The use of statistical evaluation methodology and possible mitigation strategies also are discussed.« less

Experience with flexible pipe in sour service environment: A case study (the Arabian Gulf)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Maslamani, M.J.

The suitability of a flexible pipe was evaluated on a trial basis for a lift gas line in a sour oil field in the State of Qatar, in the Arabian Gulf. Flexible pipes have been successfully used in the oil and gas industries for transportation of methanol, benzene and gas condensates in wet sweet environment at temperatures of up to 80 C. However, there is little or no information available as to its corrosion resistance in sour service wells containing 6% CO{sub 2} with 3% mole H{sub 2}S and at moderate temperatures. The present experience with a flexible pipe inmore » the gas field of Qatar has shown that under sour service conditions, the layered, composite material can suffer severe degradation leading to failure. A detailed inspection and failure analysis of the flexible pipe forms the basis of this paper. The failure demonstrates the significant effects of stress level, environmental aggressiveness, and localized hard zones in promoting Sulfide Stress Cracking (SSC). Permeability of this sour gas through the composite layer of the flexible pipe resulted in varying degree of sulfide attack and hydrogen embrittlement depending on the susceptibility of the multi layered material.« less

Experimental Tests on the Composite Foam Sandwich Pipes Subjected to Axial Load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Feng; Zhao, QiLin; Xu, Kang; Zhang, DongDong

2015-12-01

Compared to the composite thin-walled tube, the composite foam sandwich pipe has better local flexural rigidity, which can take full advantage of the high strength of composite materials. In this paper, a series of composite foam sandwich pipes with different parameters were designed and manufactured using the prefabricated polyurethane foam core-skin co-curing molding technique with E-glass fabric prepreg. The corresponding axial-load compressive tests were conducted to investigate the influence factors that experimentally determine the axial compressive performances of the tubes. In the tests, the detailed failure process and the corresponding load-displacement characteristics were obtained; the influence rules of the foam core density, surface layer thickness, fiber ply combination and end restraint on the failure modes and ultimate bearing capacity were studied. Results indicated that: (1) the fiber ply combination, surface layer thickness and end restraint have a great influence on the ultimate load bearing capacity; (2) a reasonable fiber ply combination and reliable interfacial adhesion not only optimize the strength but also transform the failure mode from brittle failure to ductile failure, which is vital to the fully utilization of the composite strength of these composite foam sandwich pipes.

Strain corrosion cracking in rpm sewer piping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hopkins, S.W.; Wachob, H.F.; Duffner, D.H.

1993-12-31

Long term, aggressive environmental exposure can result in localized failure of large diameter, glass reinforced plastic mortar (RPM) piping. In order to evaluate the performance of the liner and glass reinforced matrix polyester resin, accelerated strain corrosion tests were performed on samples of RPM piping that had already experienced almost 15 years of service. To assess the sensitivity of RPM pipe to acidic environments and to correlate the fractography of the laboratory produced failures with the excavated crack, short segments of 8-inch and 48-inch diameter piping were statically loaded to produce various known surface strains. After preloading the specimens tomore » fixed strain levels, these samples were then exposed to sulfuric acid solutions having pH values of 2.7 and 4.7 and monitored as a function of time until failure. The resulting lifetimes were related to initial surface strains and showed a decreasing logarithmic relationship. Fractographic examination of the excavated crack revealed the typical strain corrosion fractography of glass fibers after almost a 1000 hour exposure at 1.3 % strain; similar fractographic observations were obtained from failed laboratory samples. At shorter times, failure appeared to be overload in nature and exhibited little, if any, timedependent fracture features. Fractographic examination of the excavated crack strongly indicated that the crack had been present for a significant time. The extremely aggressive environment had totally dissolved the exposed glass reinforcement. Based on the laboratory strain corrosion performance, the nature of the contained cracking, and fractography of the failed surface, cracking of the excavated RPM pipe was believed to be the result of an early overload failure that subsequently propagated slowly via strain corrosion in an extremely aggressive environment.« less

Acoustic Emission Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elfergani, H. A.; Pullin, R.; Holford, K. M.

2011-07-01

Corrosion is a substantial problem in numerous structures and in particular corrosion is very serious in reinforced and prestressed concrete and must, in certain applications, be given special consideration because failure may result in loss of life and high financial cost. Furthermore corrosion cannot only be considered a long term problem with many studies reporting failure of bridges and concrete pipes due to corrosion within a short period after they were constructed. The concrete pipes which transport water are examples of structures that have suffered from corrosion; for example, the pipes of The Great Man-Made River Project of Libya. Five pipe failures due to corrosion have occurred since their installation. The main reason for the damage is corrosion of prestressed wires in the pipes due to the attack of chloride ions from the surrounding soil. Detection of the corrosion in initial stages has been very important to avoid other failures and the interruption of water flow. Even though most non-destructive methods which are used in the project are able to detect wire breaks, they cannot detect the presence of corrosion. Hence in areas where no excavation has been completed, areas of serious damage can go undetected. Therefore, the major problem which faces engineers is to find the best way to detect the corrosion and prevent the pipes from deteriorating. This paper reports on the use of the Acoustic Emission (AE) technique to detect the early stages of corrosion prior to deterioration of concrete structures.

A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a multi-state physics based model is selected to represent the aging process. The model is modified via sojourn time approach to reflect the operational and maintenance history dependence of the transition rates. Thermal-hydraulic parameters of the model are calculated via the reactor simulation environment and uncertainties associated with both parameters and the models are assessed via a two-loop Monte Carlo approach (Latin hypercube sampling) to propagate input probability distributions through the physical model. The effort documented in this thesis towards this overall objective consists of : i) defining a process for selecting critical passive components and related aging mechanisms, ii) aging model selection, iii) calculating the probability that aging would cause the component to fail, iv) uncertainty/sensitivity analyses, v) procedure development for modifying an existing PRA to accommodate consideration of passive component failures, and, vi) including the calculated failure probability in the modified PRA. The proposed methodology is applied to pressurizer surge line pipe weld aging and steam generator tube degradation in pressurized water reactors.

Investigation of a Modified 9Cr-1Mo (P91) Pipe Failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klueh, Ronald L; Shingledecker, John P

2006-04-01

A modified 9Cr-1Mo feedwater (condensate) line at an Eastman Chemical Company plant failed in January 2005. The line was in continuous service since start-up December 2001 until failure. The Plant Superintendent estimated there were three thermal cycles since start-up, although there may have been as many as 25 thermal cycles during commissioning. Normal operating temperature was 325 F (163 C) and pressure was 1762 psig. The line was steam traced with the tracing activated only when ambient outdoor temperature dropped to 40 F (5 C). A modified 9Cr-1Mo steel (P91) pipe failure in a feedwater line in a chemical plantmore » was investigated. The failure occurred in the vicinity of an elbow produced with socket welds of the pipe to the elbow. Based on metallography and hardness measurements, it was concluded that failure occurred because of an improper post-weld heat treatment of the socket weldment.« less

Failure analysis of a Stirling engine heat pipe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Thomas J.; Cairelli, James E.; Khalili, Kaveh

1989-01-01

Failure analysis was conducted on a heat pipe from a Stirling Engine test rig which was designed to operate at 1073 K. Premature failure had occurred due to localized overheating at the leading edge of the evaporator fin. It was found that a crack had allowed air to enter the fin and react with the sodium coolant. The origin of the crack was found to be located at the inner surface of the Inconel 600 fin where severe intergranular corrosion had taken place.

Application of CdZnTe Gamma-Ray Detector for Imaging Corrosion under Insulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, J.; Yahya, R.

2007-05-01

Corrosion under insulation (CUI) on the external wall of steel pipes is a common problem in many types of industrial plants. This is mainly due to the presence of moisture or water in the insulation materials. This type of corrosion can cause failures in areas that are not normally of a primary concern to an inspection program. The failures are often the result of localised corrosion and not general wasting over a large area. These failures can tee catastrophic in nature or at least have an adverse economic effect in terms of downtime and repairs. There are a number of techniques used today for CUI investigations. The main ones are profile radiography, pulse eddy current, ultrasonic spot readings and insulation removal. A new system now available is portable Pipe-CUI-Profiler. The nucleonic system is based on dual-beam gamma-ray absorption technique using Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CdZnTe) semiconductor detectors. The Pipe-CUI-Profiler is designed to inspect pipes of internal diameter 50, 65, 80, 90, 100, 125 and 150 mm. Pipeline of these sizes with aluminium or thin steel sheathing, containing fibreglass or calcium silicate insulation to thickness of 25, 40 and 50 mm can be inspected. The system has proven to be a safe, fast and effective method of inspecting pipe in industrial plant operations. This paper describes the application of gamma-ray techniques and CdZnTe semiconductor detectors in the development of Pipe-CUI-Profiler for non-destructive imaging of corrosion under insulation of steel pipes. Some results of actual pipe testing in large-scale industrial plant will be presented.

14 CFR 29.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 29.1123 Section 29.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... piping must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion...

14 CFR 29.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 29.1123 Section 29.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... piping must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion...

14 CFR 29.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 29.1123 Section 29.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... piping must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion...

14 CFR 29.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 29.1123 Section 29.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... piping must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion...

14 CFR 29.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 29.1123 Section 29.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... piping must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion...

Reestablishment of Native Riparian Species at an Altered High Elevation Site

Treesearch

Franklin J. Chan; Raymond W. Wong

1989-01-01

The failure of a 22-foot-diameter pipe caused an estimated water flow of 40,000 cfs for approximately one hour, which scoured and removed 1.75 million cubic yards of soil and vegetation from Lost Canyon. Mitigation for the damage caused by the pipe failure included reestablishing the lost vegetation. This paper describes the process of reestablishment including the...

Seam-weld quality of modern ERW/HFI line pipe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groeneveld, T.P.; Barnes, C.R.

1991-09-01

This study was undertaken to determine whether the seam-weld quality of modern ERW (electric resistance-welded)/HFI (high-frequency induction) welded pipe has been improved and justifies more widespread use of this type of pipe in critical applications. Wider use of ERW/HFI line pipe in gas-transmission lines would be expected to reduce construction costs. Five recently produced, heavy wall pipes fabricated using high-frequency electric-resistance welding (ERW) processes to make the seam weld and one pipe fabricated using the high-frequency induction (HFI) welding process to make the seam weld were studied. Four of the pipes were Grade X-60, one was Grade X-65, and onemore » was Grade X-70. All of the pipes were produced from microalloyed, controlled-rolled steels, and the weld zones were post-weld normalized. Ultrasonic inspection of the seam welds in the six pipe sections evaluated revealed no indications of defects. The tensile properties of all of the weld zones exceeded the minimum specified yield strengths for the respective grades of pipe and all of the pipes exhibited ductile failures either in the weld zone or in the base metal. Five of the six pipes exhibited ductile failures either in the weld zone or in the base metal. Five of the six pipes exhibited relatively low 85% shear area transition temperatures and relatively high upper-shelf energy absorptions as determined with Charpy V-notch specimens. In addition, for two of the three joints of pipe for which the properties were determined at both ends of the pipe, the tensile and impact properties showed little variation from end-to-end. However, for the other joint of pipe, the impact properties varied substantially from one end to the other.« less

High Energy Vibration for Gas Piping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Gary Y. H.; Chan, K. B.; Lee, Aylwin Y. S.; Jia, ShengXiang

2017-07-01

In September 2016, a gas compressor in offshore Sarawak has its rotor changed out. Prior to this change-out, pipe vibration study was carried-out by the project team to evaluate any potential high energy pipe vibration problems at the compressor’s existing relief valve downstream pipes due to process condition changes after rotor change out. This paper covers high frequency acoustic excitation (HFAE) vibration also known as acoustic induced vibration (AIV) study and discusses detailed methodologies as a companion to the Energy Institute Guidelines for the avoidance of vibration induced fatigue failure, which is a common industry practice to assess and mitigate for AIV induced fatigue failure. Such detailed theoretical studies can help to minimize or totally avoid physical pipe modification, leading to reduce offshore plant shutdown days to plant shutdowns only being required to accommodate gas compressor upgrades, reducing cost without compromising process safety.

77 FR 65801 - Airworthiness Directives; BAE SYSTEMS (OPERATIONS) LIMITED Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-31

... hydraulic fluid or hydraulic vapor from entering the passenger compartment, possibly resulting in injury to... pipe failures were caused by a combination of seam welded pipes, bends in the pipe runs with small bend... compartment, possibly resulting in injury to the occupants. For the reasons described above, this [European...

Active Diagnosis of Navy Machinery Rev 2.0

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

electrical distribution and potable water supply systems. Because of these dependencies, ship auxiliary system failures can cause combat load failure...buildup generally causes a pipe to disconnect from a junction, causing water to leak . This limits the faults that are testable, since many of the faults...pipes, junctions, pumps, flow meters, thermal loads, check valve, and water tank. Each agent is responsible for maintaining its constraints locally

Pitting failure of copper pipings for emergency fire sprinkler in ground water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, Seung-won; Lee, Jong-kwon; Kim, Jong-jip; Kim, Kyung-ja

2015-05-01

The possibility of microbiologically influenced corrosion was investigated in the early pitted copper pipes. The pipes were installed for less than 6 months as an immergency fire sprinkler. The bacteria were cultured by sampling of corrosion by-product near pits on failed copper pipes for the aerobic as well as anaerobic bacteria. However, only aerobic bacteria was found, which were Micrococcus Luteus and Bacillus sp.. The corrosion rate of copper pipes were studied by weight loss in the groundwater and polarization method. In immersion test as well as the electrochemical polarization test in ground water, only Micrococcus Luteus could activate corrosion of copper by 20% and 15%, respectively. On the other hand, Bacillus sp. showed little effect on corrosion in the above two tests. The shape and characteristics of failed copper pipes as well as simulated copper were investigated using stereoscope, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscope and EDS. The cause of pits were discussed, related with the dissolved copper concentrations, pH, and optical density. It could be concluded that the early failure of copper pipings could be ascribed to the acceration of copper in the presence of bacteria, i.e., Micrococcus Luteus.

Internal erosion during soil pipe flow: Role in gully erosion and hillslope instability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many field observations have lead to speculation on the role of piping in embankment failures, landslides, and gully erosion. However, there has not been a consensus on the subsurface flow and erosion processes involved and inconsistent use of terms have exasperated the problem. One such piping proc...

Failure mechanisms and lifetime prediction methodology for polybutylene pipe in water distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xiqun

Polybutylene (PB) is a semicrystalline thermoplastics. It has been widely used in potable water distribution piping system. However, field practice shows that failure occurs much earlier than the expected service lifetime. What are the causes and how to appropriately evaluate its lifetime motivate this study. In this thesis, three parts of work have been done. First is the understanding of PB, which includes material thermo and mechanical characterization, aging phenomena and notch sensitivity. The second part analyzes the applicability of the existing lifetime testing method for PB. It is shown that PB is an anomaly in terms of the temperature-lifetime relation because of the fracture mechanism transition across the testing temperature range. The third part is the development of the methodology of lifetime prediction for PB pipe. The fracture process of PB pipe consists of three stages, i.e., crack initiation, slow crack growth (SCG) and crack instability. The practical lifetime of PB pipe is primarily determined by the duration of the first two stages. The mechanism of crack initiation and the quantitative estimation of the time to crack initiation are studied by employing environment stress cracking technique. A fatigue slow crack growth testing method has been developed and applied in the study of SCG. By using Paris-Erdogan equation, a model is constructed to evaluate the time for SCG. As a result, the total lifetime is determined. Through this work, the failure mechanisms of PB pipe has been analyzed and the lifetime prediction methodology has been developed.

Performance and Reliability Analysis of Water Distribution Systems under Cascading Failures and the Identification of Crucial Pipes

PubMed Central

Shuang, Qing; Zhang, Mingyuan; Yuan, Yongbo

2014-01-01

As a mean of supplying water, Water distribution system (WDS) is one of the most important complex infrastructures. The stability and reliability are critical for urban activities. WDSs can be characterized by networks of multiple nodes (e.g. reservoirs and junctions) and interconnected by physical links (e.g. pipes). Instead of analyzing highest failure rate or highest betweenness, reliability of WDS is evaluated by introducing hydraulic analysis and cascading failures (conductive failure pattern) from complex network. The crucial pipes are identified eventually. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an example. The results show that the demand multiplier has a great influence on the peak of reliability and the persistent time of the cascading failures in its propagation in WDS. The time period when the system has the highest reliability is when the demand multiplier is less than 1. There is a threshold of tolerance parameter exists. When the tolerance parameter is less than the threshold, the time period with the highest system reliability does not meet minimum value of demand multiplier. The results indicate that the system reliability should be evaluated with the properties of WDS and the characteristics of cascading failures, so as to improve its ability of resisting disasters. PMID:24551102

Autogenous Metallic Pipe Leak Repair in Potable Water Systems.

PubMed

Tang, Min; Triantafyllidou, Simoni; Edwards, Marc A

2015-07-21

Copper and iron pipes have a remarkable capability for autogenous repair (self-repair) of leaks in potable water systems. Field studies revealed exemplars that metallic pipe leaks caused by nails, rocks, and erosion corrosion autogenously repaired, as confirmed in the laboratory experiments. This work demonstrated that 100% (N = 26) of 150 μm leaks contacting representative bulk potable water in copper pipes sealed autogenously via formation of corrosion precipitates at 20-40 psi, pH 3.0-11.0, and with upward and downward leak orientations. Similar leaks in carbon steel pipes at 20 psi self-repaired at pH 5.5 and 8.5, but two leaks did not self-repair permanently at pH 11.0 suggesting that water chemistry may control the durability of materials that seal the leaks and therefore the permanence of repair. Larger 400 μm holes in copper pipes had much lower (0-33%) success of self-repair at pH 3.0-11.0, whereas all 400 μm holes in carbon steel pipes at 20 psi self-repaired at pH 4.0-11.0. Pressure tests indicated that some of the repairs created at 20-40 psi ambient pressure could withstand more than 100 psi without failure. Autogenous repair has implications for understanding patterns of pipe failures, extending the lifetime of decaying infrastructure, and developing new plumbing materials.

Kinetics and microscopic processes of long term fracture in polyethylene piping materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, N.; Lu, X.

1992-07-01

The report contains 9 completed works as follows: The Dependence of Slow Crack Growth in a Polyethylene Copolymer on Testing Temperature and Morphology; A Test of Slow Crack Growth Failure of PE Under Constant Load; Effect of Annealing on Slow Crack Growth in an Ethylene-Hexene Copolymer; The Fundamental Material Parameters that Govern Slow Crack Growth in Linear Polyethylene; Slow Crack Growth in Blends of HDPE and UHMWPE; The Mechanism of Fatigue Failure in a Polyethylene Copolymer; PENT Quality Control Test for PE Gas Pipes and Resins; International Round Robin Study of a Fatigue Test Approach to the Ranking of Polyethylene Pipe Material; and Proposed ASTM Specification for ASTM F17.40 Test Methods Committee.

Fatigue evaluation of socket welded piping in nuclear power plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vecchio, R.S.

1996-12-01

Fatigue failures in piping systems occur, almost without exception, at the welded connections. In nuclear power plant systems, such failures occur predominantly at the socket welds of small diameter piping ad fillet attachment welds under high-cycle vibratory conditions. Nearly all socket weld fatigue failures are identified by leaks which, though not high in volume, generally are costly due to attendant radiological contamination. Such fatigue cracking was recently identified in the 3/4 in. diameter recirculation and relief piping socket welds from the reactor coolant system (RCS) charging pumps at a nuclear power plant. Consequently, a fatigue evaluation was performed to determinemore » the cause of cracking and provide an acceptable repair. Socket weld fatigue life was evaluated using S-N type fatigue life curves for welded structures developed by AASHTO and the assessment of an effective cyclic stress range adjacent to each socket weld. Based on the calculated effective tress ranges and assignment of the socket weld details to the appropriate AASHTO S-N curves, the socket weld fatigue lives were calculated and found to be in excellent agreement with the accumulated cyclic life to-date.« less

Global resilience analysis of water distribution systems.

PubMed

Diao, Kegong; Sweetapple, Chris; Farmani, Raziyeh; Fu, Guangtao; Ward, Sarah; Butler, David

2016-12-01

Evaluating and enhancing resilience in water infrastructure is a crucial step towards more sustainable urban water management. As a prerequisite to enhancing resilience, a detailed understanding is required of the inherent resilience of the underlying system. Differing from traditional risk analysis, here we propose a global resilience analysis (GRA) approach that shifts the objective from analysing multiple and unknown threats to analysing the more identifiable and measurable system responses to extreme conditions, i.e. potential failure modes. GRA aims to evaluate a system's resilience to a possible failure mode regardless of the causal threat(s) (known or unknown, external or internal). The method is applied to test the resilience of four water distribution systems (WDSs) with various features to three typical failure modes (pipe failure, excess demand, and substance intrusion). The study reveals GRA provides an overview of a water system's resilience to various failure modes. For each failure mode, it identifies the range of corresponding failure impacts and reveals extreme scenarios (e.g. the complete loss of water supply with only 5% pipe failure, or still meeting 80% of demand despite over 70% of pipes failing). GRA also reveals that increased resilience to one failure mode may decrease resilience to another and increasing system capacity may delay the system's recovery in some situations. It is also shown that selecting an appropriate level of detail for hydraulic models is of great importance in resilience analysis. The method can be used as a comprehensive diagnostic framework to evaluate a range of interventions for improving system resilience in future studies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Determinants of tobacco use among youths in Isfahan, Iran.

PubMed

Kelishadi, Roya; Mokhtari, Mohammad Reza; Tavasoli, Ali Akbar; Khosravi, Alireza; Ahangar-Nazari, Idin; Sabet, Babak; Kazemi, Akbar; Amini, Abbasgholi

2007-01-01

To determine potential factors that may result in motivating the youths to adopt smoking behaviour. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 210 smoking and 217 non-smoking youths, aged 12-20 years. The average age of starting cigarette and water pipe smoking was 14.5 +/- 2.4 and 11.2 +/- 1.5 years, respectively. The first experience with water pipe occurred mostly in the traditional teahouses for girls (54.8%), and in family parties (48.2%) for boys. In both genders, the first place of cigarette smoking was at friends' parties (56.8% for boys, and 52.1% for girls) and then followed by traditional teahouses (43.2% for boys, and 47.9% for girls). The most common reasons youths have picked up cigarette smoking were mainly to attract attention from friends, family inattention and poverty. Meanwhile, nearly all water pipe smokers reported using it for fun. The strongest predictors of smoking among boys were respectively father's occupation, having a smoking mother, and the number of smoking peers, whereas among girls, these factors were respectively having a smoking mother, frequenting traditional teahouses, and the number of smoking peers. Lower education of fathers and divorce among parents increased the probability of smoking in both genders, especially girls. School/work failure, as well as troubled relationship with parents and siblings were the other significant predictors of smoking in both genders, notably in girls. Public health control measures should be adopted not only to curtail cigarette use, but also to address water-pipe use. Preventive measures should be regarded as a high priority for socio-economically disadvantaged families.

An automated repair method of water pipe infrastructure using carbon fiber bundles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wisotzkey, Sean; Carr, Heath; Fyfe, Ed

2011-04-01

The United States water pipe infrastructure is made up of over 2 million miles of pipe. Due to age and deterioration, a large portion of this pipe is in need of repair to prevent catastrophic failures. Current repair methods generally involve intrusive techniques that can be time consuming and costly, but also can cause major societal impacts. A new automated repair method incorporating innovative carbon fiber technology is in development. This automated method would eliminate the need for trenching and would vastly cut time and labor costs, providing a much more economical pipe repair solution.

A case study of application of guided waves for detecting corrosion in pipelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rostami, Javad; Safizadeh, Mir Saeed

2012-05-01

Every year noticeable amount of money is spent on fixing and replacing the damaged pipes which carry gas and fuel. Since there is a possibility for a catastrophic failure, knowing the proper time of this repair is of great importance. Because significant proportion of failures is due to wall thinning of pipes because of the corrosion, detecting the wall thinning has been a main part of nondestructive testing of pipes. There are wide variety of NDT techniques to detect this kind of defect such as conventional ultrasonic, eddy current, radiography etc. but some of these techniques, for example conventional ultrasonic needs the insulation of pipes removed and in some other cases such as radiography the test is not done at a reasonable speed. A new method of nondestructive testing of pipes which has the potential to test a long distance in a short period of time and does not need the whole insulation removed, has drawn a lot of attention. In this paper, the ability of ultrasonic guided waves for detecting corrosion in gas pipelines is experimentally investigated.

Coliform non-compliance nightmares in water-supply distribution systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geldreich, E.E.

1988-01-01

Coliform occurrences in distribution systems have created a great concern for both utilities and water authorities because of the implied public-health implications and failure to meet Federal regulations. Many of the known cases involve systems in the east and midwest. The common denominator being systems that have significant amounts of pipe networks over 75 years old and all are treating surface waters. Origins for these contamination events can be found in source-water fluctuations, failures in treatment-barrier protection, or loss of pipe-network integrity. Once passage into the distribution network has been achieved, some of the coliforms (Klebsiella, Enterobacter, Citrobacter) and othermore » heterotrophic bacteria adapt to the pipe environment, finding protection and nutrient support in pipe sediments. Under conditions of seasonal warm waters (10 degC) and availability of assimilable organics in the pipe sediments and tubercles, colonization grows into biofilms that may slough-off into the water supply, creating a coliform non-compliance problem. Significance of these occurrences and control measures are part of a realistic action plan presented for guidance.« less

Heat exchanger

DOEpatents

Wolowodiuk, Walter

1976-01-06

A heat exchanger of the straight tube type in which different rates of thermal expansion between the straight tubes and the supply pipes furnishing fluid to those tubes do not result in tube failures. The supply pipes each contain a section which is of helical configuration.

Material wear and failure mode analysis of breakfast cereal extruder barrels and screw elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastio, Michael Joseph, Jr.

2005-11-01

Nearly seventy-five years ago, the single screw extruder was introduced as a means to produce metal products. Shortly after that, the extruder found its way into the plastics industry. Today much of the world's polymer industry utilizes extruders to produce items such as soda bottles, PVC piping, and toy figurines. Given the significant economical advantages of extruders over conventional batch flow systems, extruders have also migrated into the food industry. Food applications include the meat, pet food, and cereal industries to name just a few. Cereal manufacturers utilize extruders to produce various forms of Ready-to-Eat (RTE) cereals. These cereals are made from grains such as rice, oats, wheat, and corn. The food industry has been incorrectly viewed as an extruder application requiring only minimal energy control and performance capability. This misconception has resulted in very little research in the area of material wear and failure mode analysis of breakfast cereal extruders. Breakfast cereal extruder barrels and individual screw elements are subjected to the extreme pressures and temperatures required to shear and cook the cereal ingredients, resulting in excessive material wear and catastrophic failure of these components. Therefore, this project focuses on the material wear and failure mode analysis of breakfast cereal extruder barrels and screw elements, modeled as a Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) process in which historical data is used to predict future failures. Such predictive analysis will yield cost savings opportunities by providing insight into extruder maintenance scheduling and interchangeability of screw elements. In this DTMC wear analysis, four states of wear are defined and a probability transition matrix is determined based upon 24,041 hours of operational data. This probability transition matrix is used to predict when an extruder component will move to the next state of wear and/or failure. This information can be used to determine maintenance schedules and screw element interchangeability.

14 CFR 25.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 25.1123 Section 25.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by operating temperatures...

14 CFR 25.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 25.1123 Section 25.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by operating temperatures...

14 CFR 25.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 25.1123 Section 25.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by operating temperatures...

14 CFR 25.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 25.1123 Section 25.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by operating temperatures...

14 CFR 25.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 25.1123 Section 25.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by operating temperatures...

Metallurgical causes for the occurrence of creep damage in longitudinally seam-welded Cr-Mo high-energy piping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Gang

A continuous occurrence of catastrophic failures, leaks and cracks of the Cr-Mo steam piping has created widespread utility concern for the integrity and serviceability of the seam-welded piping systems in power plants across USA. Cr-Mo steels are the materials widely used for elevated temperature service in fossil-fired generating stations. A large percentage of the power plant units with the Cr-Mo seam-welded steam piping have been in operation for a long duration such that the critical components of the units have been employed beyond the design life (30 or 40 years). This percentage will increase even more significantly in the near future. There is a strong desire to extend and thus there is a need to assess the remaining life of these units. Thus, understanding of the metallurgical causes for the failures and damage in the Cr-Mo seam-welded piping plays a major role in estimating possible life-extension and decision making on whether to operate, repair or replace. In this study, an optical metallographic method and a Cryo-Crack fractographic method have been developed for characterization and quantification of the damage in seam-welded steam piping. More than 500 metallographic assessments, from more than 25 power plants, have been accomplished using the optical metallographic method, and more than 200 fractographic specimens from 10 power plants have been evaluated using the "Cryo-Crack" fractographic technique. For comparison, "virgin" SA welds were fabricated using the Mohave welding procedure with re-N&T Mohave base metal with both "acid" and "basic" fluxes. The damage mechanism, damage distribution pattern, damage classification, correlation of the damage with the microstructural features of these SA welds and the impurity segregation patterns have been determined. A physical model for cavitation (leading to failure) in Cr-Mo SA weld metals and evaluation methodologies for high energy piping are proposed.

14 CFR 27.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 27.1123 Section 27.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by...

14 CFR 27.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 27.1123 Section 27.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by...

14 CFR 27.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 27.1123 Section 27.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by...

14 CFR 27.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 27.1123 Section 27.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by...

14 CFR 27.1123 - Exhaust piping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Exhaust piping. 27.1123 Section 27.1123 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... must be heat and corrosion resistant, and must have provisions to prevent failure due to expansion by...

Application of displacement monitoring system on high temperature steam pipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaffar, M. H. A.; Husin, S.; Baek, J. E.

2017-10-01

High-energy piping systems of power plants such as Main Steam (MS) pipe or Hot Reheat (HR) pipe are operating at high temperature and high pressure at base and cyclic loads. In the event of transient condition, a pipe can be deflected dramatically and caused high stress in the pipe, yielding to failure of the piping system. Periodic monitoring and walk down can identify abnormalities but limitations exist in the standard walk down practice. This paper provides a study of pipe displacement monitoring on MS pipe of coal-fired power plant to continuously capture the pipe movement behaviour at different load using 3-Dimensional Displacement Measuring System (3DDMS). The displacement trending at Location 5 and 6 (north and south) demonstrated pipes displace less than 25% to that of design movement. It was determined from synchronisation analysis that Location 7 (north) and Location 8 (south) pipe actual movement difference has exceeded the design movement difference. Visual survey at specified locations with significant displacement trending reveals issues of hydraulic snubber and piping interferences. The study demonstrated that the displacement monitoring is able to capture pipe movement at all time and allows engineer to monitor pipe movement behaviour, aids in identifying issue early for remedy action.

Heat Rejection Systems Utilizing Composites and Heat Pipes: Design and Performance Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, Donald A.; Beach, Duane E.; Sanzi, James L.

2007-01-01

Polymer matrix composites offer the promise of reducing the mass and increasing the performance of future heat rejection systems. With lifetimes for heat rejection systems reaching a decade or more in a micrometeoroid environment, use of multiple heat pipes for fault tolerant design is compelling. The combination of polymer matrix composites and heat pipes is of particular interest for heat rejection systems operating on the lunar surface. A technology development effort is under way to study the performance of two radiator demonstration units manufactured with different polymer matrix composite face sheet resin and bonding adhesives, along with different titanium-water heat pipe designs. Common to the two radiator demonstration units is the use of high thermal conductivity fibers in the face sheets and high thermal conductivity graphite saddles within a light weight aluminum honeycomb core. Testing of the radiator demonstration units included thermal vacuum exposure and thermal vacuum exposure with a simulated heat pipe failure. Steady state performance data were obtained at different operating temperatures to identify heat transfer and thermal resistance characteristics. Heat pipe failure was simulated by removing the input power from an individual heat pipe in order to identify the diminished performance characteristics of the entire panel after a micrometeoroid strike. Freeze-thaw performance was also of interest. This paper presents a summary of the two radiator demonstration units manufactured to support this technology development effort along with the thermal performance characteristics obtained to date. Future work will also be discussed.

Internal Erosion During Soil PipeFlow: State of Science for Experimental and Numerical Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Many field observations have led to speculation on the role of piping in embankment failures, landslides, and gully erosion. However, there has not been a consensus on the subsurface flow and erosion processes involved, and inconsistent use of terms have exacerbated the problem. ...

Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.

2011-12-01

Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

Treatment Strategies for Lead in Drinking Water

EPA Science Inventory

Lead pipes are capable of lasting hundreds of years. Conservatively, there are over 12 million, still serving drinking water in the US. Probably, this is a substantial underestimate. Leaded solder joining copper pipe abounds. Leaded brasses have dominated the materials used for...

Piping inspection carriage having axially displaceable sensor

DOEpatents

Zollinger, W.T.; Treanor, R.C.

1994-12-06

A pipe inspection instrument carriage is described for use with a pipe crawler for performing internal inspections of piping surfaces. The carriage has a front leg assembly, a rear leg assembly and a central support connecting the two assemblies and for mounting an instrument arm having inspection instruments. The instrument arm has a Y-arm mounted distally thereon for axially aligning the inspection instrumentation and a mounting block, a linear actuator and axial movement arm for extending the inspection instruments radially outward to operably position the inspection instruments on the piping interior. Also, the carriage has a rotation motor and gear assembly for rotating the central support and the front leg assembly with respect to the rear leg assembly so that the inspection instruments azimuthally scan the piping interior. The instrument carriage allows performance of all piping inspection operations with a minimum of moving parts, thus decreasing the likelihood of performance failure. 4 figures.

Research on Buckling State of Prestressed Fiber-Strengthened Steel Pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruheng; Lan, Kunchang

2018-01-01

The main restorative methods of damaged oil and gas pipelines include welding reinforcement, fixture reinforcement and fiber material reinforcement. Owing to the severe corrosion problems of pipes in practical use, the research on renovation and consolidation techniques of damaged pipes gains extensive attention by experts and scholars both at home and abroad. The analysis of mechanical behaviors of reinforced pressure pipelines and further studies focusing on “the critical buckling” and intensity of pressure pipeline failure are conducted in this paper, providing theoretical basis to restressed fiber-strengthened steel pipes. Deformation coordination equations and buckling control equations of steel pipes under the effect of prestress is deduced by using Rayleigh Ritz method, which is an approximation method based on potential energy stationary value theory and minimum potential energy principle. According to the deformation of prestressed steel pipes, the deflection differential equation of prestressed steel pipes is established, and the critical value of buckling under prestress is obtained.

Solar thermal energy receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Karl W. (Inventor); Dustin, Miles O. (Inventor)

1992-01-01

A plurality of heat pipes in a shell receive concentrated solar energy and transfer the energy to a heat activated system. To provide for even distribution of the energy despite uneven impingement of solar energy on the heat pipes, absence of solar energy at times, or failure of one or more of the heat pipes, energy storage means are disposed on the heat pipes which extend through a heat pipe thermal coupling means into the heat activated device. To enhance energy transfer to the heat activated device, the heat pipe coupling cavity means may be provided with extensions into the device. For use with a Stirling engine having passages for working gas, heat transfer members may be positioned to contact the gas and the heat pipes. The shell may be divided into sections by transverse walls. To prevent cavity working fluid from collecting in the extensions, a porous body is positioned in the cavity.

Piping inspection carriage having axially displaceable sensor

DOEpatents

Zollinger, William T.; Treanor, Richard C.

1994-01-01

A pipe inspection instrument carriage for use with a pipe crawler for performing internal inspections of piping surfaces. The carriage has a front leg assembly, a rear leg assembly and a central support connecting the two assemblies and for mounting an instrument arm having inspection instruments. The instrument arm has a y-arm mounted distally thereon for axially aligning the inspection instrumentation and a mounting block, a linear actuator and axial movement arm for extending the inspection instruments radially outward to operably position the inspection instruments on the piping interior. Also, the carriage has a rotation motor and gear assembly for rotating the central support and the front leg assembly with respect to the rear leg assembly so that the inspection instruments azimuthally scan the piping interior. The instrument carriage allows performance of all piping inspection operations with a minimum of moving parts, thus decreasing the likelihood of performance failure.

Fabrication of lithium/C-103 alloy heat pipes for sharp leading edge cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ai, Bangcheng; Chen, Siyuan; Yu, Jijun; Lu, Qin; Han, Hantao; Hu, Longfei

2018-05-01

In this study, lithium/C-103 alloys heat pipes are proposed for sharp leading edge cooling. Three models of lithium/C-103 alloy heat pipes were fabricated. And their startup properties were tested by radiant heat tests and aerothermal tests. It is found that the startup temperature of lithium heat pipe was about 860 °C. At 1000 °C radiant heat tests, the operating temperature of lithium/C-103 alloy heat pipe is lower than 860 °C. Thus, startup failure occurs. At 1100 °C radiant heat tests and aerothermal tests, the operating temperature of lithium/C-103 alloy heat pipe is higher than 860 °C, and the heat pipe starts up successfully. The startup of lithium/C-103 alloy heat pipe decreases the leading edge temperature effectively, which endows itself good ablation resistance. After radiant heat tests and aerothermal tests, all the heat pipe models are severely oxidized because of the C-103 poor oxidation resistance. Therefore, protective coatings are required for further applications of lithium/C-103 alloy heat pipes.

Internal erosion during soil pipeflow: state of science for experimental and numerical analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many field observations have lead to speculation on the role of piping in embankment failures, landslides, and gully erosion. However, there has not been a consensus on the subsurface flow and erosion processes involved and inconsistent use of terms have exasperated the problem. One such piping proc...

Trials of flexible pipe in sour service reveal degradation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Maslamani, M.J.

Field trials on flexible pipe offshore Qatar have shown that, under sour conditions, the layered, composite material can suffer severe degradation leading to failure. The failure demonstrates the significant effects of stress level, environmental aggressiveness, and localized hard zones in promoting sulfide stress cracking. Permeability of the sour gas through the composite layer of the flexible pipe resulted in varying degrees of sulfide attack and hydrogen embrittlement, depending on the susceptibility of the multilayered material. In the trials, the material was used as a gas-lift line in a sour-oil field in the Arabian Gulf. Flexible pipes have been used successfullymore » for transporting methanol, benzene, and gas condensates in wet sweet environments at temperatures of up to 80 C. Little or no information, however, has been available as to its corrosion resistance in sour-service wells containing 6% CO{sub 2} with 3% H{sub 2}S partial pressures and at moderate temperatures. The paper discusses an underwater survey to evaluate the damage, visual inspection, mechanical tests, metallographic exam, and trial results.« less

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2016-08-09

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. The Lago El Guineo Dam is within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí and impounds a drainage area of about 4.25 square kilometers.The hydrologic assessment was designed to determine the outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago El Guineo and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation event, (2) a 24-hour probable maximum precipitation event, and (3) a 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated a dam failure of Lago El Guineo Dam using flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study. The simulated dam failure generated a hydrograph that was routed downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam through the lower reaches of the Río Toro Negro and the Río Grande de Manatí to determine water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” conditions. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was completed using the unsteady flow module available in the HEC–RAS model.Above the Lago El Guineo Dam, the simulated inflow peak discharges from HEC–HMS resulted in about 550 and 414 cubic meters per second for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events, respectively. The 24-hour, 100-year recurrence storm simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 216 cubic meters per second. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions are considered within the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated that for all hydrologic conditions scenarios, the Lago El Guineo Dam would not experience overtopping. For the dam breach hydraulic analysis, failure by piping was the selected hypothetical failure mode for the Lago El Guineo Dam.Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events indicated peak discharges below the dam of 1,342.43 and 1,434.69 cubic meters per second, respectively. Dam failure during the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge directly downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,183.12 cubic meters per second. Dam failure during sunny-day conditions (no precipitation) produced a peak discharge at Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,015.31 cubic meters per second assuming the initial water-surface elevation was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation.The results of the hydraulic analysis indicate that the flood would extend to many inhabited areas along the stream banks from the Lago El Guineo Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande as a result of the simulated failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Low-lying regions in the vicinity of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, are among the regions that would be most affected by failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Effects of the flood control (levee) structure constructed in 2000 to provide protection to the low-lying populated areas of Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, were considered in the hydraulic analysis of dam failure. The results indicate that overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events. The levee was not overtopped during dam failure scenarios under the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event or sunny-day conditions.

Flight data analysis and further development of variable-conductance heat pipes. [for aircraft control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Enginer, J. E.; Luedke, E. E.; Wanous, D. J.

1976-01-01

Continuing efforts in large gains in heat-pipe performance are reported. It was found that gas-controlled variable-conductance heat pipes can perform reliably for long periods in space and effectively provide temperature stabilization for spacecraft electronics. A solution was formulated that allows the control gas to vent through arterial heat-pipe walls, thus eliminating the problem of arterial failure under load, due to trace impurities of noncondensable gas trapped in an arterial bubble during priming. This solution functions well in zero gravity. Another solution was found that allows priming at a much lower fluid charge. A heat pipe with high capacity, with close temperature control of the heat source and independent of large variations in sink temperature was fabricated.

Analysis of flood hazard under consideration of dike breaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorogushyn, S.; Apel, H.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.; Merz, B.

2009-04-01

The study focuses on the development and application of a new modelling system which allows a comprehensive flood hazard assessment along diked river reaches under consideration of dike failures. The proposed Inundation Hazard Assessment Model (IHAM) represents a hybrid probabilistic-deterministic model. It comprises three models interactively coupled at runtime. These are: (1) 1D unsteady hydrodynamic model of river channel and floodplain flow between dikes, (2) probabilistic dike breach model which determines possible dike breach locations, breach widths and breach outflow discharges, and (3) 2D raster-based diffusion wave storage cell model of the hinterland areas behind the dikes. Due to the unsteady nature of the 1D and 2D coupled models, the dependence between hydraulic load at various locations along the reach is explicitly considered. The probabilistic dike breach model describes dike failures due to three failure mechanisms: overtopping, piping and slope instability caused by the seepage flow through the dike core (micro-instability). Dike failures for each mechanism are simulated based on fragility functions. The probability of breach is conditioned by the uncertainty in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters. The 2D storage cell model driven by the breach outflow boundary conditions computes an extended spectrum of flood intensity indicators such as water depth, flow velocity, impulse, inundation duration and rate of water rise. IHAM is embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation in order to account for the natural variability of the flood generation processes reflected in the form of input hydrographs and for the randomness of dike failures given by breach locations, times and widths. The scenario calculations for the developed synthetic input hydrographs for the main river and tributary were carried out for floods with return periods of T = 100; 200; 500; 1000 a. Based on the modelling results, probabilistic dike hazard maps could be generated that indicate the failure probability of each discretised dike section for every scenario magnitude. Besides the binary inundation patterns that indicate the probability of raster cells being inundated, IHAM generates probabilistic flood hazard maps. These maps display spatial patterns of the considered flood intensity indicators and their associated return periods. The probabilistic nature of IHAM allows for the generation of percentile flood hazard maps that indicate the median and uncertainty bounds of the flood intensity indicators. The uncertainty results from the natural variability of the flow hydrographs and randomness of dike breach processes. The same uncertainty sources determine the uncertainty in the flow hydrographs along the study reach. The simulations showed that the dike breach stochasticity has an increasing impact on hydrograph uncertainty in downstream direction. Whereas in the upstream part of the reach the hydrograph uncertainty is mainly stipulated by the variability of the flood wave form, the dike failures strongly shape the uncertainty boundaries in the downstream part of the reach. Finally, scenarios of polder deployment for the extreme floods with T = 200; 500; 1000 a were simulated with IHAM. The results indicate a rather weak reduction of the mean and median flow hydrographs in the river channel. However, the capping of the flow peaks resulted in a considerable reduction of the overtopping failures downstream of the polder with a simultaneous slight increase of the piping and slope micro-instability frequencies explained by a more durable average impoundment. The developed IHAM simulation system represents a new scientific tool for studying fluvial inundation dynamics under extreme conditions incorporating effects of technical flood protection measures. With its major outputs in form of novel probabilistic inundation and dike hazard maps, the IHAM system has a high practical value for decision support in flood management.

Effects of weld defects at root on rotating bending fatigue strength of small diameter socket welded pipe joints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higuchi, Makoto; Nakagawa, Akira; Chujo, Noriyuki

1996-12-01

Rotating bending fatigue tests were conducted on socket welded joints of a nominal diameter 20 mm, and effects of root defect and other various factors, including post-weld heat treatment (PWHT), pipe wall thickness, and socket wall thickness, were investigated. The socket joints exhibited, in the rotating bending fatigue mode, fatigue strengths that were markedly lower than the same 20 mm diameter joints in four-point bending fatigue. Also, where the latter specimens failed always at the toe, root-failures occurred in rotating bending fatigue. When PWHT`d, however, the fatigue strength showed a remarkable improvement, while the failure site reverted to toe. Thickermore » pipe walls and socket walls gave rise to higher fatigue strength. A formula relating the size of root defects to the fatigue strength reduction has been proposed.« less

CTS TEP thermal anomalies: Heat pipe system performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcus, B. D.

1977-01-01

A part of the investigation is summarized of the thermal anomalies of the transmitter experiment package (TEP) on the Communications Technology Satellite (CTS) which were observed on four occasions in 1977. Specifically, the possible failure modes of the variable conductance heat pipe system (VCHPS) used for principal thermal control of the high-power traveling wave tube in the TEP are considered. Further, the investigation examines how those malfunctions may have given rise to the TEP thermal anomalies. Using CTS flight data information, ground test results, analysis conclusions, and other relevant information, the investigation concentrated on artery depriming as the most likely VCHPS failure mode. Included in the study as possible depriming mechanisms were freezing of the working fluid, Marangoni flow, and gas evolution within the arteries. The report concludes that while depriming of the heat pipe arteries is consistent with the bulk of the observed data, the factors which cause the arteries to deprime have yet to be identified.

Submarine slope failures due to pipe structure formation.

PubMed

Elger, Judith; Berndt, Christian; Rüpke, Lars; Krastel, Sebastian; Gross, Felix; Geissler, Wolfram H

2018-02-19

There is a strong spatial correlation between submarine slope failures and the occurrence of gas hydrates. This has been attributed to the dynamic nature of gas hydrate systems and the potential reduction of slope stability due to bottom water warming or sea level drop. However, 30 years of research into this process found no solid supporting evidence. Here we present new reflection seismic data from the Arctic Ocean and numerical modelling results supporting a different link between hydrates and slope stability. Hydrates reduce sediment permeability and cause build-up of overpressure at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. Resulting hydro-fracturing forms pipe structures as pathways for overpressured fluids to migrate upward. Where these pipe structures reach shallow permeable beds, this overpressure transfers laterally and destabilises the slope. This process reconciles the spatial correlation of submarine landslides and gas hydrate, and it is independent of environmental change and water depth.

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

Project #153M: Guidance for Assessing the Remaining Strength of Corroded Pipelines

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

Incident statistics have consistently shown that corrosion is the primary cause of pipeline failures in liquid pipelines, and is the second largest cause of failures in natural gas transmission pipelines and distribution piping. Corrosion can cause m...

Blocking performance of the hose model and the pipe model for VPN service provisioning over WDM optical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haibo; Swee Poo, Gee

2004-08-01

We study the provisioning of virtual private network (VPN) service over WDM optical networks. For this purpose, we investigate the blocking performance of the hose model versus the pipe model for the provisioning. Two techniques are presented: an analytical queuing model and a discrete event simulation. The queuing model is developed from the multirate reduced-load approximation technique. The simulation is done with the OPNET simulator. Several experimental situations were used. The blocking probabilities calculated from the two approaches show a close match, indicating that the multirate reduced-load approximation technique is capable of predicting the blocking performance for the pipe model and the hose model in WDM networks. A comparison of the blocking behavior of the two models shows that the hose model has superior blocking performance as compared with pipe model. By and large, the blocking probability of the hose model is better than that of the pipe model by a few orders of magnitude, particularly at low load regions. The flexibility of the hose model allowing for the sharing of resources on a link among all connections accounts for its superior performance.

Fatigue strength of socket welded pipe joint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higuchi, Makoto; Hayashi, Makoto; Yamauchi, Takayoshi

1995-12-01

Fully reversed four point bending fatigue tests were carried out on small diameter socket welded joints made of carbon steels. Experimental parameters were pipe diameter, thicknesses of pipe and socket wall, throat depth and shape of fillet welds, slip-on and diametral gaps in the socket welding, lack of penetration at the root of fillet welds, and peening of fillet welds. In most cases a fatigue crack started from the root of the fillet, but in the case of higher stress amplitude, it tended to start from the toe of fillet. The standard socket welded joint for a pipe with amore » 50 mm nominal diameter showed a relatively low fatigue strength of 46 MPa in stress amplitude at the 10{sup 7} cycles failure life. This value corresponds to about 1/5 of that for the smoothed base metal specimens in axial fatigue. The fatigue strength decreased with increasing pipe diameter, and increased with increasing thickness of the pipe and socket wall. The effects of throat depth and shape of fillet welds on fatigue strength were not significant. Contrary to expectation, the fatigue strength of a socket welded joint without slip-on gap is Higher than that of the joint with a normal gap. A lack of penetration at the root deleteriously reduced fatigue strength, showing 14 MPa in stress amplitude at the 10{sup 7} cycles failure life for the 50 mm diameter socket joint.« less

Physics of heat pipe rewetting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, S. H.

1994-01-01

This is the final report which summarizes the research accomplishments under the project entitled 'Physics of Heat Pipe Rewetting' under NASA Grant No. NAG 9-525, Basic, during the period of April 1, 1991 to January 31, 1994. The objective of the research project was to investigate both analytically and experimentally the rewetting characteristics of the heated, grooved plate. The grooved plate is to simulate the inner surface of the vapor channel in monogroove heat pipes for space station design. In such designs, the inner surface of the vapor channel is threaded with monogrooves. When the heat pipe is thermally overloaded, dryout of the monogroove surface occurs. Such a dryout surface should be promptly rewetted to prevent the failure of the heat pipe operation in the thermal radiator of the space station.

Utilization of operating experience to prevent piping failures at steam plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, T.S.; Dietrich, E.B.

1999-11-01

The key to preventing flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC) induced piping failures in steam plants is the development and implementation of a methodical program for assessing plant susceptibility to FAC and managing the effects of FAC. One of the key elements of an effective FAC program is the accurate and comprehensive utilization of plant-specific and industry-wide operating experience. Operating experience should be used to develop the program to identify specific areas for inspection or replacement, and to maintain an effective program. This paper discusses the utilization of operating experience in FAC programs at nuclear power plants, fossil plants and other steam plants.

Episodic sediment-discharge events in Cascade Springs, southern Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Timothy Scott

1999-01-01

Cascade Springs is a group of artesian springs in the southern Black Hills, South Dakota, with collective flow of about 19.6 cubic feet per second. Beginning on February 28, 1992, a large discharge of red suspended sediment was observed from two of the six known discharge points. Similar events during 1906-07 and 1969 were documented by local residents and newspaper accounts. Mineralogic and grain-size analyses were performed to identify probable subsurface sources of the sediment. Geochemical modeling was performed to evaluate the geochemical evolution of water discharged from Cascade Springs. Interpretations of results provide a perspective on the role of artesian springs in the regional geohydrologic framework. X-ray diffraction mineralogic analyses of the clay fraction of the suspended sediment were compared to analyses of clay-fraction samples taken from nine geologic units at and stratigraphically below the spring-discharge points. Ongoing development of a subsurface breccia pipe(s) in the upper Minnelusa Formation and/or Opeche Shale was identified as a likely source of the suspended sediment; thus, exposed breccia pipes in lower Hell Canyon were examined. Upper Minnelusa Formation breccia pipes in lower Hell Canyon occur in clusters similar to the discrete discharge points of Cascade Springs. Grain-size analyses showed that breccia masses lack clay fractions and have coarser distributions than the wall rocks, which indicates that the red, fine-grained fractions have been carried out as suspended sediment. These findings support the hypothesis that many breccia pipes were formed as throats of abandoned artesian springs. Geochemical modeling was used to test whether geochemical evolution of ground water is consistent with this hypothesis. The evolution of water at Cascade Springs could not be suitably simulated using only upgradient water from the Minnelusa aquifer. A suitable model involved dissolution of anhydrite accompanied by dedolomitization in the upper Minnelusa Formation, which is caused by upward leakage of relatively fresh water from the Madison aquifer. The anhydrite dissolution and dedolomitization account for the net removal of minerals that would lead to breccia pipe formation by gravitational collapse. Breccia pipes in the lower Minnelusa Formation are uncommon; however, networks of interconnected breccia layers and breccia dikes are common. These networks, along with vertical fractures and faults, are likely pathways for transmitting upward leakage from the Madison aquifer. It is concluded that suspended sediment discharged at Cascade Springs probably results from episodic collapse brecciation that is caused by subsurface dissolution of anhydrite beds and cements of the upper Minnelusa Formation, accompanied by replacement of dolomite by calcite. It is further concluded that many breccia pipes probably are the throats of artesian springs that have been abandoned and exposed by erosion. The locations of artesian spring-discharge points probably have been shifting outwards from the center of the Black Hills uplift, essentially keeping pace with regional erosion over geologic time. Thus, artesian springflow probably is a factor in controlling water levels in the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers, with hydraulic head declining over geologic time, in response to development of new discharge points. Development of breccia pipes as throats of artesian springs would greatly enhance vertical hydraulic conductivity in the immediate vicinity of spring-discharge points. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the Minnelusa Formation also may be enhanced by dissolution processes related to upward leakage from the Madison aquifer. Potential processes could include dissolution resulting from leakage in the vicinity of breccia pipes that are abandoned spring throats, active spring discharge, development of subsurface breccias with no visible surface expression or spring discharge, as well as general areal leakage

Reduction of water losses by rehabilitation of water distribution network.

PubMed

Güngör, Mahmud; Yarar, Ufuk; Firat, Mahmut

2017-09-11

Physical or real losses may be indicated as the most important component of the water losses occurring in a water distribution network (WDN). The objective of this study is to examine the effects of piping material management and network rehabilitation on the physical water losses and water losses management in a WDN. For this aim, the Denizli WDN consisting of very old pipes that have exhausted their economic life is selected as the study area. The fact that the current network is old results in the decrease of pressure strength, increase of failure intensity, and inefficient use of water resources thus leading to the application of the rehabilitation program. In Denizli, network renewal works have been carried out since the year 2009 under the rehabilitation program. It was determined that the failure rate at regions where network renewal constructions have been completed decreased down to zero level. Renewal of piping material enables the minimization of leakage losses as well as the failure rate. On the other hand, the system rehabilitation has the potential to amortize itself in a very short amount of time if the initial investment cost of network renewal is considered along with the operating costs of the old and new systems, as well as water loss costs. As a result, it can be stated that renewal of piping material in water distribution systems, enhancement of the physical properties of the system, provide significant contributions such as increase of water and energy efficiency and more effective use of resources.

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

Importance Sampling in the Evaluation and Optimization of Buffered Failure Probability

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP12 Vancouver, Canada, July 12-15, 2015...Importance Sampling in the Evaluation and Optimization of Buffered Failure Probability Marwan M. Harajli Graduate Student, Dept. of Civil and Environ...criterion is usually the failure probability . In this paper, we examine the buffered failure probability as an attractive alternative to the failure

Investigation on size tolerance of pore defect of girth weld pipe.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Shuai, Jian; Xu, Kui

2018-01-01

Welding quality control is an important parameter for safe operation of oil and gas pipes, especially for high-strength steel pipes. Size control of welding defect is a bottleneck problem for current pipe construction. As a key part of construction procedure for butt-welding of pipes, pore defects in girth weld is difficult to ignore. A three-dimensional non-linear finite element numerical model is established to study applicability of size control indices based on groove shape and softening phenomenon of material in heat-affected zone of practical pipe girth weld. Taking design criteria of pipe as the basis, basic tensile, extremely tensile and extremely compressive loading conditions are determined for pipe stress analysis, and failure criteria based on flow stress is employed to perform stress analysis for pipe girth weld with pore defect. Results show that pipe girth welding stresses of pores at various radial locations are similar. Whereas, stress for pores of different sharpness varied significantly. Besides, tolerance capability of API 5L X90 grade pipe to pore defect of girth weld is lower than that of API 5L X80 grade pipe, and size control index of 3 mm related to pore defect in current standards is applicable to API 5L X80 and X90 grade girth welded pipes with radially non-sharp pore defects.

Investigation on size tolerance of pore defect of girth weld pipe

PubMed Central

Shuai, Jian; Xu, Kui

2018-01-01

Welding quality control is an important parameter for safe operation of oil and gas pipes, especially for high-strength steel pipes. Size control of welding defect is a bottleneck problem for current pipe construction. As a key part of construction procedure for butt-welding of pipes, pore defects in girth weld is difficult to ignore. A three-dimensional non-linear finite element numerical model is established to study applicability of size control indices based on groove shape and softening phenomenon of material in heat-affected zone of practical pipe girth weld. Taking design criteria of pipe as the basis, basic tensile, extremely tensile and extremely compressive loading conditions are determined for pipe stress analysis, and failure criteria based on flow stress is employed to perform stress analysis for pipe girth weld with pore defect. Results show that pipe girth welding stresses of pores at various radial locations are similar. Whereas, stress for pores of different sharpness varied significantly. Besides, tolerance capability of API 5L X90 grade pipe to pore defect of girth weld is lower than that of API 5L X80 grade pipe, and size control index of 3 mm related to pore defect in current standards is applicable to API 5L X80 and X90 grade girth welded pipes with radially non-sharp pore defects. PMID:29364986

Strain Modal Analysis of Small and Light Pipes Using Distributed Fibre Bragg Grating Sensors

PubMed Central

Huang, Jun; Zhou, Zude; Zhang, Lin; Chen, Juntao; Ji, Chunqian; Pham, Duc Truong

2016-01-01

Vibration fatigue failure is a critical problem of hydraulic pipes under severe working conditions. Strain modal testing of small and light pipes is a good option for dynamic characteristic evaluation, structural health monitoring and damage identification. Unique features such as small size, light weight, and high multiplexing capability enable Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors to measure structural dynamic responses where sensor size and placement are critical. In this paper, experimental strain modal analysis of pipes using distributed FBG sensors ispresented. Strain modal analysis and parameter identification methods are introduced. Experimental strain modal testing and finite element analysis for a cantilever pipe have been carried out. The analysis results indicate that the natural frequencies and strain mode shapes of the tested pipe acquired by FBG sensors are in good agreement with the results obtained by a reference accelerometer and simulation outputs. The strain modal parameters of a hydraulic pipe were obtained by the proposed strain modal testing method. FBG sensors have been shown to be useful in the experimental strain modal analysis of small and light pipes in mechanical, aeronautic and aerospace applications. PMID:27681728

Application of formal optimization techniques in thermal/structural design of a heat-pipe-cooled panel for a hypersonic vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camarda, Charles J.; Riley, Michael F.

1987-01-01

Nonlinear mathematical programming methods are used to design a radiantly cooled and heat-pipe-cooled panel for a Mach 6.7 transport. The cooled portion of the panel is a hybrid heat-pipe/actively cooled design which uses heat pipes to transport the absorbed heat to the ends of the panel where it is removed by active cooling. The panels are optimized for minimum mass and to satisfy a set of heat-pipe, structural, geometric, and minimum-gage constraints. Two panel concepts are investigated: cylindrical heat pipes embedded in a honeycomb core and an integrated design which uses a web-core heat-pipe sandwich concept. The latter was lighter and resulted in a design which was less than 10 percent heavier than an all actively cooled concept. The heat-pipe concept, however, is redundant and can sustain a single-point failure, whereas the actively cooled concept cannot. An additional study was performed to determine the optimum number of coolant manifolds per panel for a minimum-mass design.

Microbiological corrosion of ASTM SA105 carbon steel pipe for industrial fire water usage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chidambaram, S.; Ashok, K.; Karthik, V.; Venkatakrishnan, P. G.

2018-02-01

The large number of metallic systems developed for last few decades against both general uniform corrosion and localized corrosion. Among all microbiological induced corrosion (MIC) is attractive, multidisciplinary and complex in nature. Many chemical processing industries utilizes fresh water for fire service to nullify major/minor fire. One such fire water service line pipe attacked by micro-organisms leads to leakage which is industrially important from safety point of view. Also large numbers of leakage reported in similar fire water service of nearby food processing plant, paper & pulp plant, steel plant, electricity board etc…In present investigation one such industrial fire water service line failure analysis of carbon steel line pipe was analyzed to determine the cause of failure. The water sample subjected to various chemical and bacterial analyses. Turbidity, pH, calcium hardness, free chlorine, oxidation reduction potential, fungi, yeasts, sulphide reducing bacteria (SRB) and total bacteria (TB) were measured on water sample analysis. The corrosion rate was measured on steel samples and corrosion coupon measurements were installed in fire water for validating non flow assisted localized corrosion. The sulphide reducing bacteria (SRB) presents in fire water causes a localized micro biological corrosion attack of line pipe.

INTERNAL REPAIR OF PIPELINES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bill Bruce; Nancy Porter; George Ritter

2005-07-20

The two broad categories of fiber-reinforced composite liner repair and deposited weld metal repair technologies were reviewed and evaluated for potential application for internal repair of gas transmission pipelines. Both are used to some extent for other applications and could be further developed for internal, local, structural repair of gas transmission pipelines. Principal conclusions from a survey of natural gas transmission industry pipeline operators can be summarized in terms of the following performance requirements for internal repair: (1) Use of internal repair is most attractive for river crossings, under other bodies of water, in difficult soil conditions, under highways, undermore » congested intersections, and under railway crossings. (2) Internal pipe repair offers a strong potential advantage to the high cost of horizontal direct drilling when a new bore must be created to solve a leak or other problem. (3) Typical travel distances can be divided into three distinct groups: up to 305 m (1,000 ft.); between 305 m and 610 m (1,000 ft. and 2,000 ft.); and beyond 914 m (3,000 ft.). All three groups require pig-based systems. A despooled umbilical system would suffice for the first two groups which represents 81% of survey respondents. The third group would require an onboard self-contained power unit for propulsion and welding/liner repair energy needs. (4) The most common size range for 80% to 90% of operators surveyed is 508 mm (20 in.) to 762 mm (30 in.), with 95% using 558.8 mm (22 in.) pipe. Evaluation trials were conducted on pipe sections with simulated corrosion damage repaired with glass fiber-reinforced composite liners, carbon fiber-reinforced composite liners, and weld deposition. Additional un-repaired pipe sections were evaluated in the virgin condition and with simulated damage. Hydrostatic failure pressures for pipe sections repaired with glass fiber-reinforced composite liner were only marginally greater than that of pipe sections without liners, indicating that this type of liner is only marginally effective at restoring the pressure containing capabilities of pipelines. Failure pressures for larger diameter pipe repaired with a semi-circular patch of carbon fiber-reinforced composite lines were also marginally greater than that of a pipe section with un-repaired simulated damage without a liner. These results indicate that fiber reinforced composite liners have the potential to increase the burst pressure of pipe sections with external damage Carbon fiber based liners are viewed as more promising than glass fiber based liners because of the potential for more closely matching the mechanical properties of steel. Pipe repaired with weld deposition failed at pressures lower than that of un-repaired pipe in both the virgin and damaged conditions, indicating that this repair technology is less effective at restoring the pressure containing capability of pipe than a carbon fiber-reinforced liner repair. Physical testing indicates that carbon fiber-reinforced liner repair is the most promising technology evaluated to-date. In lieu of a field installation on an abandoned pipeline, a preliminary nondestructive testing protocol is being developed to determine the success or failure of the fiber-reinforced liner pipeline repairs. Optimization and validation activities for carbon-fiber repair methods are ongoing.« less

State of art of seismic design and seismic hazard analysis for oil and gas pipeline system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Aiwen; Chen, Kun; Wu, Jian

2010-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design. Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure, oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes, with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%, 5% and 10%, respectively. Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion, which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site. Different from a city’s water pipeline network, the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system. For the uniform confidence of seismic safety, a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk. Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude, the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia. The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan M S8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.

Monitoring and localization of buried plastic natural gas pipes using passive RF tags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, Saikat; Kumar, Deepak; Ghazali, Mohd. Ifwat; Chahal, Prem; Udpa, Lalita; Deng, Yiming

2018-04-01

A passive harmonic radio frequency (RF) tag on the pipe with added sensing capabilities is proposed in this paper. Radio frequency identification (RFID) based tagging has already emerged as a potential solution for chemical sensing, location detection, animal tagging, etc. Harmonic transponders are already quite popular compared to conventional RFIDs due to their improved signal to noise ratio (SNR). However, the operating frequency, transmitted power and tag efficiency become critical issues for underground RFIDs. In this paper, a comprehensive on-tag sensing, power budget and frequency analyses is performed for buried harmonic tag design. Accurate tracking of infrastructure burial depth is proposed to reduce the probability of failure of underground pipelines. Burial depth is estimated using phase information of received signals at different frequencies calculated using genetic algorithm (GA) based optimization for post processing. Suitable frequency range is determined for a variety of soil with different moisture content for small tag-antenna size. Different types of harmonic tags such as 1) Schottky diode, 2) Non-linear Transmission Line (NLTL) were compared for underground applications. In this study, the power, frequency and tag design have been optimized to achieve small antenna size, minimum signal loss and simple reader circuit for underground detection at up to 5 feet depth in different soil medium and moisture contents.

Relationship between Pipeline Wall Thickness (Gr. X60) and Water Depth towards Avoiding Failure during Installation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razak, K. Abdul; Othman, M. I. H.; Mat Yusuf, S.; Fuad, M. F. I. Ahmad; yahaya, Effah

2018-05-01

Oil and gas today being developed at different water depth characterized as shallow, deep and ultra-deep waters. Among the major components involved during the offshore installation is pipelines. Pipelines are a transportation method of material through a pipe. In oil and gas industry, pipeline come from a bunch of line pipe that welded together to become a long pipeline and can be divided into two which is gas pipeline and oil pipeline. In order to perform pipeline installation, we need pipe laying barge or pipe laying vessel. However, pipe laying vessel can be divided into two types: S-lay vessel and J-lay vessel. The function of pipe lay vessel is not only to perform pipeline installation. It also performed installation of umbilical or electrical cables. In the simple words, pipe lay vessel is performing the installation of subsea in all the connecting infrastructures. Besides that, the installation processes of pipelines require special focus to make the installation succeed. For instance, the heavy pipelines may exceed the lay vessel’s tension capacities in certain kind of water depth. Pipeline have their own characteristic and we can group it or differentiate it by certain parameters such as grade of material, type of material, size of diameter, size of wall thickness and the strength. For instances, wall thickness parameter studies indicate that if use the higher steel grade of the pipelines will have a significant contribution in pipeline wall thickness reduction. When running the process of pipe lay, water depth is the most critical thing that we need to monitor and concern about because of course we cannot control the water depth but we can control the characteristic of the pipe like apply line pipe that have wall thickness suitable with current water depth in order to avoid failure during the installation. This research will analyse whether the pipeline parameter meet the requirements limit and minimum yield stress. It will overlook to simulate pipe grade API 5L X60 which size from 8 to 20mm thickness with a water depth of 50 to 300m. Result shown that pipeline installation will fail from the wall thickness of 18mm onwards since it has been passed the critical yield percentage.

Investigations of Low Temperature Time Dependent Cracking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van der Sluys, W A; Robitz, E S; Young, B A

2002-09-30

The objective of this project was to investigate metallurgical and mechanical phenomena associated with time dependent cracking of cold bent carbon steel piping at temperatures between 327 C and 360 C. Boiler piping failures have demonstrated that understanding the fundamental metallurgical and mechanical parameters controlling these failures is insufficient to eliminate it from the field. The results of the project consisted of the development of a testing methodology to reproduce low temperature time dependent cracking in laboratory specimens. This methodology was used to evaluate the cracking resistance of candidate heats in order to identify the factors that enhance cracking sensitivity.more » The resultant data was integrated into current available life prediction tools.« less

Could Acoustic Emission Testing Show a Pipe Failure in Advance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, S. D.; Teixeira, J. C. G.

2004-02-01

During the last 20 years PETROBRAS has been attempting to use Acoustic Emission (AE) as an inspection tool. In this period the AE concept has changed from a revolutionary method to a way of finding areas to make a complete inspection. PETROBRAS has a lot of pressure vessels inspected by AE and with other NDTs techniques to establish their relationship. In other hand, PETROBRAS R&D Center has conducted destructive hydrostatic tests in pipelines samples with artificial defects made by milling. Those tests were monitored by acoustic emission and manual ultrasonic until the complete failure of pipe sample. This article shows the results obtained and a brief proposal of analysis criteria for this environment of test.

DETECTION OF COATING FAILURES IN A NEUTRONIC REACTOR

DOEpatents

Snell, A.H.; Allison, S.K.

1958-02-11

This patent relates to water-cooled reactor systems and discloses a means to detect leaks in the jackets of jacketed fuel elements comprising a neutron detector located in the cooling water discharge pipe,the pipe being provided with an enlarged portion for housing the detector so that the latter is completely surrounded by the water in its passage through the pipe, said enlarged portion and detector being shielded from the reactor for the purpose of detecting only those delayed neutrons emitted in the cooling water and due to the latter picking up fission fragments from the defective fuel elements.

Concrete filled steel pipe inspection using electro magnetic acoustic transducer (EMAT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Won-Bae; Kundu, Tribikram; Ryu, Yeon-Sun; Kim, Jeong-Tae

2005-05-01

Concrete-filled steel pipes are usually exposed in hostile environments such as seawater and deicing materials. The outside corrosion of the steel pipe can reduce the wall thickness and the corrosion-induced delamination of internal concrete can increase internal volume or pressure. In addition, the void that can possibly exist in the pipe reduces the bending resistance. To avoid structural failure due to this type of deterioration, appropriate inspection and repair techniques are to be developed. Guided wave techniques have strong potentials for this kind of inspection because of long-distance inspection capability. Among different transducer-coupling mechanism, electro-magnetic acoustic transducers (EMATs) give relatively consistent results in comparison to piezoelectric transducers since they do not need any couplant. In this study EMATs are used for transmitting and receiving cylindrical guided waves through concrete-filled steel pipes. Through time history curves and wavelet transform, it is shown that EMAT-generated cylindrical guided wave techniques have good potential for the interface inspection of concrete-filled steel pipes.

A heat receiver design for solar dynamic space power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Karl W.; Dustin, Miles O.; Crane, Roger

1990-01-01

An advanced heat pipe receiver designed for a solar dynamic space power system is described. The power system consists of a solar concentrator, solar heat receiver, Stirling heat engine, linear alternator and waste heat radiator. The solar concentrator focuses the sun's energy into a heat receiver. The engine and alternator convert a portion of this energy to electric power and the remaining heat is rejected by a waste heat radiator. Primary liquid metal heat pipes transport heat energy to the Stirling engine. Thermal energy storage allows this power system to operate during the shade portion of an orbit. Lithium fluoride/calcium fluoride eutectic is the thermal energy storage material. Thermal energy storage canisters are attached to the midsection of each heat pipe. The primary heat pipes pass through a secondary vapor cavity heat pipe near the engine and receiver interface. The secondary vapor cavity heat pipe serves three important functions. First, it smooths out hot spots in the solar cavity and provides even distribution of heat to the engine. Second, the event of a heat pipe failure, the secondary heat pipe cavity can efficiently transfer heat from other operating primary heat pipes to the engine heat exchanger of the defunct heat pipe. Third, the secondary heat pipe vapor cavity reduces temperature drops caused by heat flow into the engine. This unique design provides a high level of reliability and performance.

Experimental Verification of Steel Pipe Collapse under Vacuum Pressure Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Autrique, R.; Rodal, E.

2016-11-01

Steel pipes are used widely in hydroelectric systems and in pumping systems. Both systems are subject to hydraulic transient effects caused by changes in boundary conditions, such as sudden valve closures, pump failures, or accidents. Water column separation, and its associated vaporization pressure inside the pipe, can cause the collapse of thin walled steel pipes subject to atmospheric pressure, as happened during the well known Oigawa Power Plant accident in Japan, in 1950. The conditions under which thin walled pipes subject to external pressure can collapse have been studied mathematically since the second half of the XIX century, with classical authors Southwell and Von Mises obtaining definitive equations for long and short pipes in the second decade of the XX century, in which the fundamental variables are the diameter to thickness ratio D/t and the length to diameter ratio L/D. In this paper, the predicted critical D/t ratio for steel pipe collapse is verified experimentally, in a physical model able to reproduce hydraulic transients, generating vacuum pressures through rapid upstream valve closures.

Experimental and analytical study of water pipe's rupture for damage identification purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papakonstantinou, Konstantinos G.; Shinozuka, Masanobu; Beikae, Mohsen

2011-04-01

A malfunction, local damage or sudden pipe break of a pipeline system can trigger significant flow variations. As shown in the paper, pressure variations and pipe vibrations are two strongly correlated parameters. A sudden change in the flow velocity and pressure of a pipeline system can induce pipe vibrations. Thus, based on acceleration data, a rapid detection and localization of a possible damage may be carried out by inexpensive, nonintrusive monitoring techniques. To illustrate this approach, an experiment on a single pipe was conducted in the laboratory. Pressure gauges and accelerometers were installed and their correlation was checked during an artificially created transient flow. The experimental findings validated the correlation between the parameters. The interaction between pressure variations and pipe vibrations was also theoretically justified. The developed analytical model explains the connection among flow pressure, velocity, pressure wave propagation and pipe vibration. The proposed method provides a rapid, efficient and practical way to identify and locate sudden failures of a pipeline system and sets firm foundations for the development and implementation of an advanced, new generation Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system for continuous health monitoring of pipe networks.

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A.

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrencemore » results are used to validate finite element predictions.« less

Link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution for multicast light-trees in elastic optical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Zhang, Lu; Tang, Ying; Huang, Shanguo

2018-03-01

The light-tree-based optical multicasting (LT-OM) scheme provides a spectrum- and energy-efficient method to accommodate emerging multicast services. Some studies focus on the survivability technologies for LTs against a fixed number of link failures, such as single-link failure. However, a few studies involve failure probability constraints when building LTs. It is worth noting that each link of an LT plays different important roles under failure scenarios. When calculating the failure probability of an LT, the importance of its every link should be considered. We design a link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution (LIFPMS) for multicast LTs under independent failure model and shared risk link group failure model. Based on the LIFPMS, we put forward the minimum failure probability (MFP) problem for the LT-OM scheme. Heuristic approaches are developed to address the MFP problem in elastic optical networks. Numerical results show that the LIFPMS provides an accurate metric for calculating the failure probability of multicast LTs and enhances the reliability of the LT-OM scheme while accommodating multicast services.

Dam break analysis and flood inundation map of Krisak dam for emergency action plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juliastuti, Setyandito, Oki

2017-11-01

The Indonesian Regulation which refers to the ICOLD Regulation (International Committee on Large Dam required have the Emergency Action Plan (EAP) guidelines because of the dams have potential failure. In EAP guidelines there is a management of evacuation where the determination of the inundation map based on flood modeling. The purpose of the EAP is to minimize the risk of loss of life and property in downstream which caused by dam failure. This paper will describe about develop flood modeling and inundation map in Krisak dam using numerical methods through dam break analysis (DBA) using hydraulic model Zhong Xing HY-21. The approaches of dam failure simulation are overtopping and piping. Overtopping simulation based on quadrangular, triangular and trapezium fracture. Piping simulation based on cracks of orifice. Using results of DBA, hazard classification of Krisak dam is very high. The nearest village affected dam failure is Singodutan village (distance is 1.45 kilometer from dam) with inundation depth is 1.85 meter. This result can be used by stakeholders such as emergency responders and the community at risk in formulating evacuation procedure.

Contamination of piped medical gas supply with water.

PubMed

Hay, H

2000-08-01

The failure of anaesthetic equipment as a result of maintenance is extremely rare. The ingress of water into the flowmeters of an anaesthetic machine from the piped medical air supply is reported and is possibly unique. The piped medical air supply was open to the atmosphere during maintenance. Water condensed in the gas pipeline and this was not noticed during subsequent testing. Water was seen leaking from the orthopaedic air tools used for surgery but was assumed to be from the autoclaving process. Later the same day, when medical air from the piped source was used as part of the gas mixture for a general anaesthetic, water was seen filling the barrel of the flowmeter air control valve. This could have had far-reaching and dangerous consequences for the patient, which were fortunately averted.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Study of reactor Brayton power systems for nuclear electric spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The feasibility of using Brayton power systems for nuclear electric spacecraft was investigated. The primary performance parameters of systems mass and radiator area were determined for systems from 100 to 1000 kW sub e. Mathematical models of all system components were used to determine masses and volumes. Two completely independent systems provide propulsion power so that no single-point failure can jeopardize a mission. The waste heat radiators utilize armored heat pipes to limit meteorite puncture. The armor thickness was statistically determined to achieve the required probability of survival. A 400 kW sub e reference system received primary attention as required by the contract. The components of this system were defined and a conceptual layout was developed with encouraging results. An arrangement with redundant Brayton power systems having a 1500 K (2240 F) turbine inlet temperature was shown to be compatible with the dimensions of the space shuttle orbiter payload bay.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brickstad, B.; Bergman, M.

A computerized procedure has been developed that predicts the growth of an initial circumferential surface crack through a pipe and further on to failure. The crack growth mechanism can either be fatigue or stress corrosion. Consideration is taken to complex crack shapes and for the through-wall cracks, crack opening areas and leak rates are also calculated. The procedure is based on a large number of three-dimensional finite element calculations of cracked pipes. The results from these calculations are stored in a database from which the PC-program, denoted LBBPIPE, reads all necessary information. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis is presentedmore » for cracked pipes subjected to both stress corrosion and vibration fatigue.« less

Apparatus for storing hydrogen isotopes

DOEpatents

McMullen, John W.; Wheeler, Michael G.; Cullingford, Hatice S.; Sherman, Robert H.

1985-01-01

An improved method and apparatus for storing isotopes of hydrogen (especially tritium) are provided. The hydrogen gas(es) is (are) stored as hydrides of material (for example uranium) within boreholes in a block of copper. The mass of the block is critically important to the operation, as is the selection of copper, because no cooling pipes are used. Because no cooling pipes are used, there can be no failure due to cooling pipes. And because copper is used instead of stainless steel, a significantly higher temperature can be reached before the eutectic formation of uranium with copper occurs, (the eutectic of uranium with the iron in stainless steel forming at a significantly lower temperature).

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Evaporator film coefficients of grooved heat pipes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kamotani, Y.

1978-01-01

The heat transfer rate in the meniscus attachment region of a grooved heat pipe evaporator is studied theoretically. The analysis shows that the evaporation takes place mainly in the region where the liquid changes its shape sharply. However, comparisons with available heat transfer data indicate that the heat transfer rate in the meniscus varying region is substantially reduced probably due to groove wall surface roughness.

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

Evaluation of Neutron Elastic Scatter (NES) technique for detection of graphitic corrosion in gas cast iron pipe. Final report, March 1996-April 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Charatis, G.; Hugg, E.; McEllistrem, M.

1997-04-01

PENETRON, Inc., in two phases, demonstrated the effectiveness of its Neutron elastic Scatter (NES) techniques in detecting the change in the carbon weight percentage (CWt%) as a measure of corrosion in gray cast iron pipe. In Phase I, experiments were performed with synthetic standards supplied by IIT Research Institute (IITRI) to test the applicability of the NES techniques. Irradiation experiments performed at the University of Kentucky showed that CWt% could be detected, ranging from 1.6% to 13%, within an uncertainty of around 4%. In Phase II, experiments were performed on seven (7) corroded pipe sections supplied by MichCon. Tests weremore » made on pipe sliced lengthwise into quarter sections, and in re-assembled whole pipe sections. X-ray films of the quarter sections indicated probable areas of corrosion for each quarter section.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kozluk, M.J.; Vijay, D.K.

Postulated catastrophic rupture of high-energy piping systems is the fundamental criterion used for the safety design basis of both light and heavy water nuclear generating stations. Historically, the criterion has been applied by assuming a nonmechanistic instantaneous double-ended guillotine rupture of the largest diameter pipes inside of containment. Nonmechanistic, meaning that the assumption of an instantaneous guillotine rupture has not been based on stresses in the pipe, failure mechanisms, toughness of the piping material, nor the dynamics of the ruptured pipe ends as they separate. This postulated instantaneous double-ended guillotine rupture of a pipe was a convenient simplifying assumption thatmore » resulted in a conservative accident scenario. This conservative accident scenario has now become entrenched as the design basis accident for: containment design, shutdown system design, emergency fuel cooling systems design, and to establish environmental qualification temperature and pressure conditions. The requirement to address dynamic effects associated with the postulated pipe rupture subsequently evolved. The dynamic effects include: potential missiles, pipe whipping, blowdown jets, and thermal-hydraulic transients. Recent advances in fracture mechanics research have demonstrated that certain pipes under specific conditions cannot crack in ways that result in an instantaneous guillotine rupture. Canadian utilities are now using mechanistic fracture mechanics and leak-before-break assessments on a case-by-case basis, in limited applications, to support licensing cases which seek exemption from the need to consider the various dynamic effects associated with postulated instantaneous catastrophic rupture of high-energy piping systems inside and outside of containment.« less

Crack instability analysis methods for leak-before-break program in piping systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mattar Neto, M.; Maneschy, E.; Nobrega, P.G.B. da

1995-11-01

The instability evaluation of cracks in piping systems is a step that is considered when a high-energy line is investigated in a leak-before-break (LBB) program. Different approaches have been used to assess stability of cracks: (a) local flow stress (LFS); (b) limit load (LL); (c) elastic-plastic fracture mechanics (EPFM) as J-integral versus tearing modulus (J-T) analysis. The first two methods are used for high ductile materials, when it is assumed that remaining ligament of the cracked pipe section becomes fully plastic prior to crack extension. EPFM is considered for low ductile piping when the material reaches unstable ductile tearing priormore » to plastic collapse in the net section. In this paper the LFS, LL and EPFM J-T methodologies were applied to calculate failure loads in circumferential through-wall cracked pipes with different materials, geometries and loads. It presents a comparison among the results obtained from the above three formulations and also compares them with experimental data available in the literature.« less

Finite Element Creep Damage Analyses and Life Prediction of P91 Pipe Containing Local Wall Thinning Defect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jilin; Zhou, Changyu

2016-03-01

Creep continuum damage finite element (FE) analyses were performed for P91 steel pipe containing local wall thinning (LWT) defect subjected to monotonic internal pressure, monotonic bending moment and combined internal pressure and bending moment by orthogonal experimental design method. The creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect under different load conditions were obtained. Then, the creep damage life formulas were regressed based on the creep damage life results from FE method. At the same time a skeletal point rupture stress was found and used for life prediction which was compared with creep damage lives obtained by continuum damage analyses. From the results, the failure lives of pipe containing LWT defect can be obtained accurately by using skeletal point rupture stress method. Finally, the influence of LWT defect geometry was analysed, which indicated that relative defect depth was the most significant factor for creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect.

Three dimensional contact/impact methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kulak, R.F.

1987-01-01

The simulation of three-dimensional interface mechanics between reactor components and structures during static contact or dynamic impact is necessary to realistically evaluate their structural integrity to off-normal loads. In our studies of postulated core energy release events, we have found that significant structure-structure interactions occur in some reactor vessel head closure designs and that fluid-structure interactions occur within the reactor vessel. Other examples in which three-dimensional interface mechanics play an important role are: (1) impact response of shipping casks containing spent fuel, (2) whipping pipe impact on reinforced concrete panels or pipe-to-pipe impact after a pipe break, (3) aircraft crashmore » on secondary containment structures, (4) missiles generated by turbine failures or tornados, and (5) drops of heavy components due to lifting accidents. The above is a partial list of reactor safety problems that require adequate treatment of interface mechanics and are discussed in this paper.« less

Flow-accelerated corrosion in power plants. Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chexal, B.; Horowitz, J.; Dooley, B.

1998-07-01

Flow-Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) is a phenomenon that results in metal loss from piping, vessels, and equipment made of carbon steel. FAC occurs only under certain conditions of flow, chemistry, geometry, and material. Unfortunately, those conditions are common in much of the high-energy piping in nuclear and fossil-fueled power plants. Undetected, FAC will cause leaks and ruptures. Consequently, FAC has become a major issue, particularly for nuclear plants. Although major failures are rare, the consequences can be severe. In 1986, four men in the area of an FAC-induced pipe rupture were killed. Fossil plants too, are subject to FAC. In 1995,more » a failure at a fossil-fired plant caused two fatalities. In addition to concerns about personnel safety, FAC failures can pose challenges to plant safety. Regulatory agencies have therefore required nuclear utilities to institute formal programs to address FAC. Finally, a major FAC failure (like the one that happened in 1997 at a US nuclear power plant) can force a plant to shutdown and purchase replacement power at a price approaching a million dollars per day depending upon the MWe rating of the plant. A great deal of time and money has been spent to develop the technology to predict, detect, and mitigate FAC in order to prevent catastrophic failures. Over time, substantial progress has been made towards understanding and preventing FAC. The results of these efforts include dozens of papers, reports, calculations, and manuals, as well as computer programs and other tools. This book is written to provide a detailed treatment of the entire subject in a single document. Any complex issue requires balancing know-how, the risk of decision making, and a pragmatic engineering solution. This book addresses these by carrying out the necessary R and D and engineering along with plant knowledge to cover all quadrants of Chexal`s four quadrant known-unknown diagram, as seen in Figure i.« less

Epidemiology of urban water distribution systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardet, Jean-Pierre; Little, Richard

2014-08-01

Urban water distribution systems worldwide contain numerous old and fragile pipes that inevitably break, flood streets and damage property, and disrupt economic and social activities. Such breaks often present dramatically in temporal clusters as occurred in Los Angeles during 2009. These clustered pipe breaks share many characteristics with human mortality observed during extreme climatological events such as heat waves or air pollution. Drawing from research and empirical studies in human epidemiology, a framework is introduced to analyze the time variations of disruptive pipe breaks that can help water agencies better understand clustered pipe failures and institute measures to minimize the disruptions caused by them. It is posited that at any time, a cohort of the pipes comprising the water distribution system will be in a weakened state due to fatigue and corrosion. This frail cohort becomes vulnerable during normal operations and ultimately breaks due to rapid increase in crack lengths induced by abnormal stressors. The epidemiological harvesting model developed in this paper simulates an observed time series of monthly pipe breaks and has both explanatory and predictive power. It also demonstrates that models from nonengineering disciplines such as medicine can provide improved insights into the performance of infrastructure systems.

A theoretical study of the fundamental torsional wave in buried pipes for pipeline condition assessment and monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muggleton, J. M.; Kalkowski, M.; Gao, Y.; Rustighi, E.

2016-07-01

Waves that propagate at low frequencies in buried pipes are of considerable interest in a variety of practical scenarios, for example leak detection, remote pipe detection, and pipeline condition assessment and monitoring. Whilst there has been considerable research and commercial attention on the accurate location of pipe leakage for many years, the various causes of pipe failures and their identification, have not been well documented; moreover, there are still a number of gaps in the existing knowledge. Previous work has focused on two of the three axisymmetric wavetypes that can propagate: the s=1, fluid-dominated wave; and the s=2, shell-dominated wave. In this paper, the third axisymmetric wavetype, the s=0 torsional wave, is investigated. The effects of the surrounding soil on the characteristics of wave propagation and attenuation are analysed for a compact pipe/soil interface for which there is no relative motion between the pipe wall and the surrounding soil. An analytical dispersion relationship is derived for the torsional wavenumber from which both the wavespeed and wave attenuation can be obtained. How torsional waves can subsequently radiate to the ground surface is then investigated. Analytical expressions are derived for the ground surface displacement above the pipe resulting from torsional wave motion within the pipe wall. A numerical model is also included, primarily in order to validate some of the assumptions made whilst developing the analytical solutions, but also so that some comparison in the results may be made. Example results are presented for both a cast iron pipe and an MDPE pipe buried in two typical soil types.

Method and apparatus for storing hydrogen isotopes. [stored as uranium hydride in a block of copper

DOEpatents

McMullen, J.W.; Wheeler, M.G.; Cullingford, H.S.; Sherman, R.H.

1982-08-10

An improved method and apparatus for storing isotopes of hydrogen (especially tritium) are provided. The hydrogen gas is stored as hydrides of material (for example uranium) within boreholes in a block of copper. The mass of the block is critically important to the operation, as is the selection of copper, because no cooling pipes are used. Because no cooling pipes are used, there can be no failure due to cooling pipes. And because copper is used instead of stainless steel, a significantly higher temperature can be reached before the eutectic formation of uranium with copper occurs, (the eutectic of uranium with the iron in stainless steel forms at a significantly lower temperature).

TSTA Piping and Flame Arrestor Operating Experience Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cadwallader, Lee C.; Willms, R. Scott

The Tritium Systems Test Assembly (TSTA) was a facility dedicated to tritium handling technology and experiment research at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The facility operated from 1984 to 2001, running a prototype fusion fuel processing loop with ~100 grams of tritium as well as small experiments. There have been several operating experience reports written on this facility’s operation and maintenance experience. This paper describes analysis of two additional components from TSTA, small diameter gas piping that handled small amounts of tritium in a nitrogen carrier gas, and the flame arrestor used in this piping system. The operating experiences andmore » the component failure rates for these components are discussed in this paper. Comparison data from other applications are also presented.« less

Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

2017-03-01

Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Budnitz, Robert J.

If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO 2 annually, with the CO 2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO 2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelinesmore » are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO 2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of accident sequences of concern and of their consequences, and crucially the methodology provides insights into what measures might be taken to mitigate those accident sequences identified as of concern. Mitigating strategies could address reducing the likelihood of an accident sequence of concern, or reducing the consequences, or some combination. The methodology elucidates both local and integrated risks along the pipeline or at the well providing information useful to decision makers at various levels including local (e.g., property owners and town councils), regional (e.g., county and state representatives), and national levels (federal regulators and corporate proponents).« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronold, K.O.; Nielsen, N.J.R.; Tura, F.

This paper demonstrates how a structural reliability method can be applied as a rational means to analyze free spans of submarine pipelines with respect to failure in ultimate loading, and to establish partial safety factors for design of such free spans against this failure mode. It is important to note that the described procedure shall be considered as an illustration of a structural reliability methodology, and that the results do not represent a set of final design recommendations. A scope of design cases, consisting of a number of available site-specific pipeline spans, is established and is assumed representative for themore » future occurrence of submarine pipeline spans. Probabilistic models for the wave and current loading and its transfer to stresses in the pipe wall of a pipeline span is established together with a stochastic representation of the material resistance. The event of failure in ultimate loading is considered as based on a limit state which is reached when the maximum stress over the design life of the pipeline exceeds the yield strength of the pipe material. The yielding limit state is considered an ultimate limit state (ULS).« less

Finite volume method and multigrid acceleration in modelling of rapid crack propagation in full-scale pipe test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivankovic, A.; Muzaferija, S.; Demirdzic, I.

1997-07-01

Rapid Crack Propagation (RCP) along pressurised plastic pipes is by far the most dangerous pipe failure mode. Despite the economic benefits offered by increasing pipe size and operating pressure, both strategies increase the risk and the potential consequences of RCP. It is therefore extremely important to account for RCP in establishing the safe operational conditions. Combined experimental-numerical study is the only reliable approach of addressing the problem, and extensive research is undertaken by various fracture groups (e.g. Southwest Research Institute - USA, Imperial College - UK). This paper presents numerical results from finite volume modelling of full-scale test on medium density polyethylene gas pressurised pipes. The crack speed and pressure profile are prescribed in the analysis. Both steady-state and transient RCPs are considered, and the comparison between the two shown. The steady-state results are efficiently achieved employing a full multigrid acceleration technique, where sets of progressively finer grids are used in V-cycles. Also, the effect of inelastic behaviour of polyethylene on RCP results is demonstrated.

Effectiveness of distributed temperature measurements for early detection of piping in river embankments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bersan, Silvia; Koelewijn, André R.; Simonini, Paolo

2018-02-01

Internal erosion is the cause of a significant percentage of failure and incidents involving both dams and river embankments in many countries. In the past 20 years the use of fibre-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) in dams has proved to be an effective tool for the detection of leakages and internal erosion. This work investigates the effectiveness of DTS for dike monitoring, focusing on the early detection of backward erosion piping, a mechanism that affects the foundation layer of structures resting on permeable, sandy soils. The paper presents data from a piping test performed on a large-scale experimental dike equipped with a DTS system together with a large number of accompanying sensors. The effect of seepage and piping on the temperature field is analysed, eventually identifying the processes that cause the onset of thermal anomalies around piping channels and thus enable their early detection. Making use of dimensional analysis, the factors that influence this thermal response of a dike foundation are identified. Finally some tools are provided that can be helpful for the design of monitoring systems and for the interpretation of temperature data.

Nest movement by piping plovers in response to changing habitat conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Anteau, Michael J.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Shaffer, Terry L.

2009-01-01

Birds that nest along reservoir or river shorelines may face fluctuating water levels that threaten nest survival. On Lake Sakakawea of the upper Missouri River, 37 and 70% of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) nests found in 2007 and 2008, respectively, were initiated at elevations inundated prior to projected hatch date. We describe eight events at seven nests in which adult Piping Plovers appeared to have moved active nests threatened by rising water or gathered eggs apparently displaced by rising water on Lake Sakakawea and the Garrison reach of the upper Missouri River. Additionally, we describe one nest that was moved after the habitat at the nest site had been disturbed by domestic cattle. Our observations and evidence indicate that adult Piping Plovers are capable of moving eggs and establishing nests at new sites during incubation. Furthermore, our results suggest that Piping Plovers evaluate their reproductive investment under potential threat of nest loss and may be capable of acting prospectively (moving nests prior to inundation) and reactively (regathering eggs after inundation) to avoid nest failure.

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Lo, Yunnhon; Ward, Natalie C.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

49 CFR 192.203 - Instrument, control, and sampling pipe and components.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... stresses without failure by fatigue. (2) Except for takeoff lines that can be isolated from sources of..., components, and supports must provide safety under anticipated operating stresses. (8) Each joint between...

Bootstrap imputation with a disease probability model minimized bias from misclassification due to administrative database codes.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2017-04-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative databases cause bias due to misclassification of patient disease status. It is unclear which methods minimize this bias. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 50,074 hospitalized patients. The true prevalence of severe renal failure and its association with covariates were measured. These were compared to results for which renal failure status was determined using surrogate measures including the following: (1) diagnostic codes; (2) categorization of probability estimates of renal failure determined from a previously validated model; or (3) bootstrap methods imputation of disease status using model-derived probability estimates. Bias in estimates of severe renal failure prevalence and its association with covariates were minimal when bootstrap methods were used to impute renal failure status from model-based probability estimates. In contrast, biases were extensive when renal failure status was determined using codes or methods in which model-based condition probability was categorized. Bias due to misclassification from inaccurate diagnostic codes can be minimized using bootstrap methods to impute condition status using multivariable model-derived probability estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of STS/Centaur failure probabilities liftoff to Centaur separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, J. M.

1982-01-01

The results of an analysis to determine STS/Centaur catastrophic vehicle response probabilities for the phases of vehicle flight from STS liftoff to Centaur separation from the Orbiter are presented. The analysis considers only category one component failure modes as contributors to the vehicle response mode probabilities. The relevant component failure modes are grouped into one of fourteen categories of potential vehicle behavior. By assigning failure rates to each component, for each of its failure modes, the STS/Centaur vehicle response probabilities in each phase of flight can be calculated. The results of this study will be used in a DOE analysis to ascertain the hazard from carrying a nuclear payload on the STS.

Using probabilistic modeling to evaluate human exposure to organotin in drinking water transported by polyvinyl chloride pipe.

PubMed

Fristachi, Anthony; Xu, Ying; Rice, Glenn; Impellitteri, Christopher A; Carlson-Lynch, Heather; Little, John C

2009-11-01

The leaching of organotin (OT) heat stabilizers from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes used in residential drinking water systems may affect the quality of drinking water. These OTs, principally mono- and di-substituted species of butyltins and methyltins, are a potential health concern because they belong to a broad class of compounds that may be immune, nervous, and reproductive system toxicants. In this article, we develop probability distributions of U.S. population exposures to mixtures of OTs encountered in drinking water transported by PVC pipes. We employed a family of mathematical models to estimate OT leaching rates from PVC pipe as a function of both surface area and time. We then integrated the distribution of estimated leaching rates into an exposure model that estimated the probability distribution of OT concentrations in tap waters and the resulting potential human OT exposures via tap water consumption. Our study results suggest that human OT exposures through tap water consumption are likely to be considerably lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) "safe" long-term concentration in drinking water (150 microg/L) for dibutyltin (DBT)--the most toxic of the OT considered in this article. The 90th percentile average daily dose (ADD) estimate of 0.034 +/- 2.92 x 10(-4)microg/kg day is approximately 120 times lower than the WHO-based ADD for DBT (4.2 microg/kg day).

Detection of Fatigue Crack in Basalt FRP Laminate Composite Pipe using Electrical Potential Change Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altabey, Wael A.; Noori, Mohammed

2017-05-01

Novel modulation electrical potential change (EPC) method for fatigue crack detection in a basalt fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) laminate composite pipe is carried out in this paper. The technique is applied to a laminate pipe with an embedded crack in three layers [0º/90º/0º]s. EPC is applied for evaluating the dielectric properties of basalt FRP pipe by using an electrical capacitance sensor (ECS) to discern damages in the pipe. Twelve electrodes are mounted on the outer surface of the pipe and the changes in the modulation dielectric properties of the piping system are analyzed to detect damages in the pipe. An embedded crack is created by a fatigue internal pressure test. The capacitance values, capacitance change and node potential distribution of ECS electrodes are calculated before and after crack initiates using a finite element method (FEM) by ANSYS and MATLAB, which are combined to simulate sensor characteristics and fatigue behaviour. The crack lengths of the basalt FRP are investigated for various number of cycles to failure for determining crack growth rate. Response surfaces are adopted as a tool for solving inverse problems to estimate crack lengths from the measured electric potential differences of all segments between electrodes to validate the FEM results. The results show that, the good convergence between the FEM and estimated results. Also the results of this study show that the electrical potential difference of the basalt FRP laminate increases during cyclic loading, caused by matrix cracking. The results indicate that the proposed method successfully provides fatigue crack detection for basalt FRP laminate composite pipes.

Life Test Results for Water Heat Pipes Operating at 200 °C to 300 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenfeld, John H.; Gernert, Nelson J.

2008-01-01

For lunar or planetary bases to be viable, a robust electric generating system will be required for powering the habitat. Water heat pipes offer an attractive solution for lunar base heat rejection, and would serve as a qualification for them on other long duration missions. Successful operation near the upper end of water operating range is a requirement for the application. Results are reported for life tests on water heat pipes that were operated at various temperatures between 200 °C and 300 °C. Tests were conducted on twenty three gravity-assisted water heat pipes. Eleven titanium/water heat pipes and ten Monel/water heat pipes were tested at temperatures above 200 °C. Two cupronickel heat pipes were also assembled and tested. Titanium alloys tested included CP-2 titanium, as well as two beta-titanium alloys, namely 15-3 and Nitinol alloys. Some of the titanium alloy life tests used wicks fabricated from CP-2 titanium screen or porous felt. Monel alloys tested included 400 and K-500 alloys. Some of the Monel heat pipes contained copper/nickel wicks that were fabricated by brazing nickel-plated copper felt metal wicks. Although most of the envelope/material combinations exhibit favorable results at 200 °C, some of the combinations failed at higher temperatures. Causes of failure included stress-creep of envelopes and corrosion at axial or end cap welds. This information represents a significant advance in selection of materials for 200 °C to 300 °C water heat pipes. Life testing work is being continued.

Detection probability of least tern and piping plover chicks in a large river system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roche, Erin A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Anteau, Michael J.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Dovichin, Colin M.

2014-01-01

Monitoring the abundance and stability of populations of conservation concern is often complicated by an inability to perfectly detect all members of the population. Mark-recapture offers a flexible framework in which one may identify factors contributing to imperfect detection, while at the same time estimating demographic parameters such as abundance or survival. We individually color-marked, recaptured, and re-sighted 1,635 federally listed interior least tern (Sternula antillarum; endangered) chicks and 1,318 piping plover (Charadrius melodus; threatened) chicks from 2006 to 2009 at 4 study areas along the Missouri River and investigated effects of observer-, subject-, and site-level covariates suspected of influencing detection. Increasing the time spent searching and crew size increased the probability of detecting both species regardless of study area and detection methods were not associated with decreased survival. However, associations between detection probability and the investigated covariates were highly variable by study area and species combinations, indicating that a universal mark-recapture design may not be appropriate.

New portable pipe wall thickness measuring technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascente, Joseph E.

1998-03-01

One of the biggest inspection challenges facing many of the process industries; namely the petrochemical, refining, fossil power, and pulp and paper industries is: How to effectively examine their insulated piping? While there are a number of failure mechanisms involved in various process piping systems, piping degradation through corrosion and erosion are by far the most prevalent. This degradation can be in the form of external corrosion under insulation, internal corrosion through a variety of mechanisms, and internal erosion caused by the flow of the product through the pipe. Refineries, chemical plants and electrical power plants have MANY thousands of miles of pipe that are insulated to prevent heat loss or heat absorption. This insulation is often made up of several materials, with calcium based material being the most dense. The insulating material is usually wrapped with an aluminum or stainless steel outer wrap. Verification of wall thickness of these pipes can be accomplished by removing the insulation and doing an ultrasound inspection or by taking x- rays at a tangent to the edge of the pipe through the insulation. Both of these processes are slow and expensive. The time required to obtain data is measured in hours per meter. The ultrasound method requires that the insulation be plugged after the inspection. The surface needs to be cleaned or the resulting data will not be accurate. The tangent x-ray only shows two thicknesses and requires that the area be roped off because of radiation safety.

Automatic Monitoring System Design and Failure Probability Analysis for River Dikes on Steep Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yin-Lung; Lin, Yi-Jun; Tung, Yeou-Koung

2017-04-01

The purposes of this study includes: (1) design an automatic monitoring system for river dike; and (2) develop a framework which enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes during a rainstorm. The historical dike failure data collected in this study indicate that most dikes in Taiwan collapsed under the 20-years return period discharge, which means the probability of dike failure is much higher than that of overtopping. We installed the dike monitoring system on the Chiu-She Dike which located on the middle stream of Dajia River, Taiwan. The system includes: (1) vertical distributed pore water pressure sensors in front of and behind the dike; (2) Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) to measure the displacement of dike; (3) wireless floating device to measure the scouring depth at the toe of dike; and (4) water level gauge. The monitoring system recorded the variation of pore pressure inside the Chiu-She Dike and the scouring depth during Typhoon Megi. The recorded data showed that the highest groundwater level insides the dike occurred 15 hours after the peak discharge. We developed a framework which accounts for the uncertainties from return period discharge, Manning's n, scouring depth, soil cohesion, and friction angle and enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes such as overtopping, surface erosion, mass failure, toe sliding and overturning. The framework was applied to Chiu-She, Feng-Chou, and Ke-Chuang Dikes on Dajia River. The results indicate that the toe sliding or overturning has the highest probability than other failure modes. Furthermore, the overall failure probability (integrate different failure modes) reaches 50% under 10-years return period flood which agrees with the historical failure data for the study reaches.

Probability of loss of assured safety in temperature dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig

2004-12-01

Relationships to determine the probability that a weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) safety system will fail to function as intended in a fire environment are investigated. In the systems under study, failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system is intended to render the overall system inoperational and thus prevent the possible occurrence of accidents with potentially serious consequences. Formal developments of the probability that the WL system fails to deactivate the overall system before failure of the SL system (i.e., the probability of loss of assured safety, PLOAS) are presented for several WWSL configurations: (i) onemore » WL, one SL, (ii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of any SL before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, (iii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of all SLs before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, and (iv) multiple WLs, multiple SLs and multiple sublinks in each SL with failure of any sublink constituting failure of the associated SL and failure of all SLs before failure of any WL constituting failure of the safety system. The indicated probabilities derive from time-dependent temperatures in the WL/SL system and variability (i.e., aleatory uncertainty) in the temperatures at which the individual components of this system fail and are formally defined as multidimensional integrals. Numerical procedures based on quadrature (i.e., trapezoidal rule, Simpson's rule) and also on Monte Carlo techniques (i.e., simple random sampling, importance sampling) are described and illustrated for the evaluation of these integrals. Example uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for PLOAS involving the representation of uncertainty (i.e., epistemic uncertainty) with probability theory and also with evidence theory are presented.« less

Thermomechanical CSM analysis of a superheater tube in transient state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taler, Dawid; Madejski, Paweł

2011-12-01

The paper presents a thermomechanical computational solid mechanics analysis (CSM) of a pipe "double omega", used in the steam superheaters in circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boilers. The complex cross-section shape of the "double omega" tubes requires more precise analysis in order to prevent from failure as a result of the excessive temperature and thermal stresses. The results have been obtained using the finite volume method for transient state of superheater. The calculation was carried out for the section of pipe made of low-alloy steel.

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A regression model for the temporal development of soil pipes and associated gullies in the alluvial-fill valley of the Rio Puerco, central New Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Condit, C. D.; Elston, W. E.

1984-01-01

On Mars, the association of gullied escarpments and chaotic terrain is evidence for failure and scarp retreat of poorly consolidated materials. Some martian gullies have no surface outlets and may have drained through subterranean channels. Similar features, though on a much smaller scale, can be seen in alluvium along terrestrial river banks in semiarid regions, such as the Rio Puerco Valley of central New Mexico. Many of the escarpments along the Rio Puerco are developing through formation of collapse gullies, which drain through soil pipes. Gully development can be monitored on aerial photographs taken in 1935, 1962, and 1980. A regression model was developed to quantify gully evolution over a known time span. Soil pipes and their associated collapse gullies make recognizable signatures on the air photos. The areal extent of this signature can be normalized to the scarp length of each pipe-gully system, which makes comparisons between systems possible.

A DISCUSSION ON UTILIZATION OF HEAT PIPE AND VAPOUR CHAMBER TECHNOLOGY AS A PRIMARY DEVICE FOR HEAT EXTRACTION FROM PHOTON ABSORBER SURFACES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suthar, K. J.; Lurie, Alexander M.; Den Hartog, P.

Heat pipes and vapour chambers work on heat exchange phenomena of two-phase flow and are widely used for in-dustrial and commercial applications. These devices offer very high effective thermal conductivities (5,000-200,000 W/m/K) and are adaptable to various sizes, shapes, and ori-entations. Although they have been found to be an excel-lent thermal management solution for laptops, satellites, and many things in-between, heat pipes and vapour cham-bers have yet to be adopted for use at particle accelerator facilities where they offer the possibility of more compact and more efficient means to remove heat from unwanted synchrotron radiation. As with all technologies, theremore » are inherent limitations. Foremost, they are limited by practi-cality to serve as local heat transfer devices; heat transfer over long distances is likely best provided by other means. Heat pipes also introduce unique failure modes which must be considered.« less

INTERNAL REPAIR OF PIPELINES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robin Gordon; Bill Bruce; Ian Harris

2004-12-31

The two broad categories of fiber-reinforced composite liner repair and deposited weld metal repair technologies were reviewed and evaluated for potential application for internal repair of gas transmission pipelines. Both are used to some extent for other applications and could be further developed for internal, local, structural repair of gas transmission pipelines. Principal conclusions from a survey of natural gas transmission industry pipeline operators can be summarized in terms of the following performance requirements for internal repair: (1) Use of internal repair is most attractive for river crossings, under other bodies of water, in difficult soil conditions, under highways, undermore » congested intersections, and under railway crossings. (2) Internal pipe repair offers a strong potential advantage to the high cost of horizontal direct drilling when a new bore must be created to solve a leak or other problem. (3) Typical travel distances can be divided into three distinct groups: up to 305 m (1,000 ft.); between 305 m and 610 m (1,000 ft. and 2,000 ft.); and beyond 914 m (3,000 ft.). All three groups require pig-based systems. A despooled umbilical system would suffice for the first two groups which represents 81% of survey respondents. The third group would require an onboard self-contained power unit for propulsion and welding/liner repair energy needs. (4) The most common size range for 80% to 90% of operators surveyed is 508 mm (20 in.) to 762 mm (30 in.), with 95% using 558.8 mm (22 in.) pipe. Evaluation trials were conducted on pipe sections with simulated corrosion damage repaired with glass fiber-reinforced composite liners, carbon fiber-reinforced composite liners, and weld deposition. Additional un-repaired pipe sections were evaluated in the virgin condition and with simulated damage. Hydrostatic failure pressures for pipe sections repaired with glass fiber-reinforced composite liner were only marginally greater than that of pipe sections without liners, indicating that this type of liner is only marginally effective at restoring the pressure containing capabilities of pipelines. Failure pressures for larger diameter pipe repaired with a semi-circular patch of carbon fiber-reinforced composite lines were also marginally greater than that of a pipe section with un-repaired simulated damage without a liner. These results indicate that fiber reinforced composite liners have the potential to increase the burst pressure of pipe sections with external damage Carbon fiber based liners are viewed as more promising than glass fiber based liners because of the potential for more closely matching the mechanical properties of steel. Pipe repaired with weld deposition failed at pressures lower than that of un-repaired pipe in both the virgin and damaged conditions, indicating that this repair technology is less effective at restoring the pressure containing capability of pipe than a carbon fiber-reinforced liner repair. Physical testing indicates that carbon fiber-reinforced liner repair is the most promising technology evaluated to-date. The first round of optimization and validation activities for carbon-fiber repairs are complete. Development of a comprehensive test plan for this process is recommended for use in the field trial portion of this program.« less

INTERNAL REPAIR OF PIPELINES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robin Gordon; Bill Bruce; Ian Harris

2004-08-17

The two broad categories of fiber-reinforced composite liner repair and deposited weld metal repair technologies were reviewed and evaluated for potential application for internal repair of gas transmission pipelines. Both are used to some extent for other applications and could be further developed for internal, local, structural repair of gas transmission pipelines. Principal conclusions from a survey of natural gas transmission industry pipeline operators can be summarized in terms of the following performance requirements for internal repair: (1) Use of internal repair is most attractive for river crossings, under other bodies of water, in difficult soil conditions, under highways, undermore » congested intersections, and under railway. (2) Internal pipe repair offers a strong potential advantage to the high cost of horizontal direct drilling when a new bore must be created to solve a leak or other problem. (3) Typical travel distances can be divided into three distinct groups: up to 305 m (1,000 ft.); between 305 m and 610 m (1,000 ft. and 2,000 ft.); and beyond 914 m (3,000 ft.). All three groups require pig-based systems. A despooled umbilical system would suffice for the first two groups which represents 81% of survey respondents. The third group would require an onboard self-contained power unit for propulsion and welding/liner repair energy needs. (4) The most common size range for 80% to 90% of operators surveyed is 508 mm (20 in.) to 762 mm (30 in.), with 95% using 558.8 mm (22 in.) pipe. Evaluation trials were conducted on pipe sections with simulated corrosion damage repaired with glass fiber-reinforced composite liners, carbon fiber-reinforced composite liners, and weld deposition. Additional un-repaired pipe sections were evaluated in the virgin condition and with simulated damage. Hydrostatic failure pressures for pipe sections repaired with glass fiber-reinforced composite liner were only marginally greater than that of pipe sections without liners, indicating that this type of liner is only marginally effective at restoring the pressure containing capabilities of pipelines. Failure pressures for larger diameter pipe repaired with a semi-circular patch of carbon fiber-reinforced composite lines were also marginally greater than that of a pipe section with un-repaired simulated damage without a liner. These results indicate that fiber reinforced composite liners have the potential to increase the burst pressure of pipe sections with external damage Carbon fiber based liners are viewed as more promising than glass fiber based liners because of the potential for more closely matching the mechanical properties of steel. Pipe repaired with weld deposition failed at pressures lower than that of un-repaired pipe in both the virgin and damaged conditions, indicating that this repair technology is less effective at restoring the pressure containing capability of pipe than a carbon fiber-reinforced liner repair. Physical testing indicates that carbon fiber-reinforced liner repair is the most promising technology evaluated to-date. Development of a comprehensive test plan for this process is recommended for use in the field trial portion of this program.« less

Risk management.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2010-01-01

Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

Probabilistic safety analysis of earth retaining structures during earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grivas, D. A.; Souflis, C.

1982-07-01

A procedure is presented for determining the probability of failure of Earth retaining structures under static or seismic conditions. Four possible modes of failure (overturning, base sliding, bearing capacity, and overall sliding) are examined and their combined effect is evaluated with the aid of combinatorial analysis. The probability of failure is shown to be a more adequate measure of safety than the customary factor of safety. As Earth retaining structures may fail in four distinct modes, a system analysis can provide a single estimate for the possibility of failure. A Bayesian formulation of the safety retaining walls is found to provide an improved measure for the predicted probability of failure under seismic loading. The presented Bayesian analysis can account for the damage incurred to a retaining wall during an earthquake to provide an improved estimate for its probability of failure during future seismic events.

Using WNTR to Model Water Distribution System Resilience ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR) is a new open source Python package developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Sandia National Laboratories to model and evaluate resilience of water distribution systems. WNTR can be used to simulate a wide range of disruptive events, including earthquakes, contamination incidents, floods, climate change, and fires. The software includes the EPANET solver as well as a WNTR solver with the ability to model pressure-driven demand hydraulics, pipe breaks, component degradation and failure, changes to supply and demand, and cascading failure. Damage to individual components in the network (i.e. pipes, tanks) can be selected probabilistically using fragility curves. WNTR can also simulate different types of resilience-enhancing actions, including scheduled pipe repair or replacement, water conservation efforts, addition of back-up power, and use of contamination warning systems. The software can be used to estimate potential damage in a network, evaluate preparedness, prioritize repair strategies, and identify worse case scenarios. As a Python package, WNTR takes advantage of many existing python capabilities, including parallel processing of scenarios and graphics capabilities. This presentation will outline the modeling components in WNTR, demonstrate their use, give the audience information on how to get started using the code, and invite others to participate in this open source project. This pres

Sparse reconstruction localization of multiple acoustic emissions in large diameter pipelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubuc, Brennan; Ebrahimkhanlou, Arvin; Salamone, Salvatore

2017-04-01

A sparse reconstruction localization method is proposed, which is capable of localizing multiple acoustic emission events occurring closely in time. The events may be due to a number of sources, such as the growth of corrosion patches or cracks. Such acoustic emissions may yield localization failure if a triangulation method is used. The proposed method is implemented both theoretically and experimentally on large diameter thin-walled pipes. Experimental examples are presented, which demonstrate the failure of a triangulation method when multiple sources are present in this structure, while highlighting the capabilities of the proposed method. The examples are generated from experimental data of simulated acoustic emission events. The data corresponds to helical guided ultrasonic waves generated in a 3 m long large diameter pipe by pencil lead breaks on its outer surface. Acoustic emission waveforms are recorded by six sparsely distributed low-profile piezoelectric transducers instrumented on the outer surface of the pipe. The same array of transducers is used for both the proposed and the triangulation method. It is demonstrated that the proposed method is able to localize multiple events occurring closely in time. Furthermore, the matching pursuit algorithm and the basis pursuit densoising approach are each evaluated as potential numerical tools in the proposed sparse reconstruction method.

The hydraulic capacity of deteriorating sewer systems.

PubMed

Pollert, J; Ugarelli, R; Saegrov, S; Schilling, W; Di Federico, V

2005-01-01

Sewer and wastewater systems suffer from insufficient capacity, construction flaws and pipe deterioration. Consequences are structural failures, local floods, surface erosion and pollution of receiving waters bodies. European cities spend in the order of five billion Euro per year for wastewater network rehabilitation. This amount is estimated to increase due to network ageing. The project CARE-S (Computer Aided RE-habilitation of Sewer Networks) deals with sewer and storm water networks. The final project goal is to develop integrated software, which provides the most cost-efficient system of maintenance, repair and rehabilitation of sewer networks. Decisions on investments in rehabilitation often have to be made with uncertain information about the structural condition and the hydraulic performance of a sewer system. Because of this, decision-making involves considerable risks. This paper presents the results of research focused on the study of hydraulic effects caused by failures due to temporal decline of sewer systems. Hydraulic simulations are usually carried out by running commercial models that apply, as input, default values of parameters that strongly influence results. Using CCTV inspections information as dataset to catalogue principal types of failures affecting pipes, a 3D model was used to evaluate their hydraulic consequences. The translation of failures effects in parameters values producing the same hydraulic conditions caused by failures was carried out through the comparison of laboratory experiences and 3D simulations results. Those parameters could be the input of 1D commercial models instead of the default values commonly inserted.

Design of Refractory Metal Life Test Heat Pipe and Calorimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, J. J.; Reid, R. S.; Bragg-Sitton, S. M.

2010-01-01

Heat pipe life tests have seldom been conducted on a systematic basis. Typically, one or more heat pipes are built and tested for an extended period at a single temperature with simple condenser loading. Results are often reported describing the wall material, working fluid, test temperature, test duration, and occasionally the nature of any failure. Important information such as design details, processing procedures, material assay, power throughput, and radial power density are usually not mentioned. We propose to develop methods to generate carefully controlled data that conclusively establish heat pipe operating life with material-fluid combinations capable of extended operation. The test approach detailed in this Technical Publication will use 16 Mo-44.5%Re alloy/sodium heat pipe units that have an approximate12-in length and 5/8-in diameter. Two specific test series have been identified: (1) Long-term corrosion rates based on ASTM-G-68-80 (G-series) and (2) corrosion trends in a cross-correlation sequence at various temperatures and mass fluences based on a Fisher multifactor design (F-series). Evaluation of the heat pipe hardware will be performed in test chambers purged with an inert purified gas (helium or helium/argon mixture) at low pressure (10-100 torr) to provide thermal coupling between the heat pipe condenser and calorimeter. The final pressure will be selected to minimize the potential for voltage breakdown between the heat pipe and radio frequency (RF) induction coil (RF heating is currently the planned method of powering the heat pipes). The proposed calorimeter is constructed from a copper alloy and relies on a laminar flow water-coolant channel design to absorb and transport energy

Anisotropic nature of radially strained metal tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strickland, Julie N.

Metal pipes are sometimes swaged by a metal cone to enlarge them, which increases the strain in the material. The amount of strain is important because it affects the burst and collapse strength. Burst strength is the amount of internal pressure that a pipe can withstand before failure, while collapse strength is the amount of external pressure that a pipe can withstand before failure. If the burst or collapse strengths are exceeded, the pipe may fracture, causing critical failure. Such an event could cost the owners and their customers millions of dollars in clean up, repair, and lost time, in addition to the potential environmental damage. Therefore, a reliable way of estimating the burst and collapse strength of strained pipe is desired and valuable. The sponsor currently rates strained pipes using the properties of raw steel, because those properties are easily measured (for example, yield strength). In the past, the engineers assumed that the metal would be work-hardened when swaged, so that yield strength would increase. However, swaging introduces anisotropic strain, which may decrease the yield strength. This study measured the yield strength of strained material in the transverse and axial direction and compared them to raw material, to determine the amount of anisotropy. This information will be used to more accurately determine burst and collapse ratings for strained pipes. More accurate ratings mean safer products, which will minimize risk for the sponsor's customers. Since the strained metal has a higher yield strength than the raw material, using the raw yield strength to calculate burst and collapse ratings is a conservative method. The metal has even higher yield strength after strain aging, which indicates that the stresses are relieved. Even with the 12% anisotropy in the strained and 9% anisotropy in the strain aged specimens, the raw yield strengths are lower and therefore more conservative. I recommend that the sponsor continue using the raw yield strength to calculate these ratings. I set out to characterize the anisotropic nature of swaged metal. As expected, the tensile tests showed a difference between the axial and transverse tensile strength. The correlation was 12% difference in yield strength in the axial and transverse directions for strained material and 9% in strained and aged material. This means that the strength of the metal in the hoop (transverse) direction is approximately 10% stronger than in the axial direction, because the metal was work hardened during the swaging process. Therefore, the metal is more likely to fail in axial tension than in burst or collapse. I presented the findings from the microstructure examination, standard tensile tests, and SEM data. All of this data supported the findings of the mini-tensile tests. This information will help engineers set burst and collapse ratings and allow material scientists to predict the anisotropic characteristics of swaged steel tubes.

An Overview of Long Duration Sodium Heat Pipe Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenfeld, John H.; Ernst, Donald M.; Lindemuth, James E.; Sanzi, James L.; Geng, Steven M.; Zuo, Jon

2004-02-01

High temperature heat pipes are being evaluated for use in energy conversion applications such as fuel cells, gas turbine re-combustors, and Stirling cycle heat sources; with the resurgence of space nuclear power, additional applications include reactor heat removal elements and radiator elements. Long operating life and reliable performance are critical requirements for these applications. Accordingly long-term materials compatibility is being evaluated through the use of high temperature life test heat pipes. Thermacore, Inc. has carried out several sodium heat pipe life tests to establish long term operating reliability. Four sodium heat pipes have recently demonstrated favorable materials compatibility and heat transport characteristics at high operating temperatures in air over long time periods. A 316L stainless steel heat pipe with a sintered porous nickel wick structure and an integral brazed cartridge heater has successfully operated at 650C to 700C for over 115,000 hours without signs of failure. A second 316L stainless steel heat pipe with a specially-designed Inconel 601 rupture disk and a sintered nickel powder wick has demonstrated over 83,000 hours at 600C to 650C with similar success. A representative one-tenth segment Stirling Space Power Converter heat pipe with an Inconel 718 envelope and a stainless steel screen wick has operated for over 41,000 hours at nearly 700C. A hybrid (i.e. gas-fired and solar) heat pipe with a Haynes 230 envelope and a sintered porous nickel wick structure was operated for about 20,000 hours at nearly 700C without signs of degradation. These life test results collectively have demonstrated the potential for high temperature heat pipes to serve as reliable energy conversion system components for power applications that require long operating lifetime with high reliability. Detailed design specifications, operating history, and test results are described for each of these sodium heat pipes. Lessons learned and future life test plans are also discussed.

An Overview of Long Duration Sodium Heat Pipe Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfeld, John H.; Ernst, Donald M.; Lindemuth, James E.; Sanzi, James L.; Geng, Steven M.; Zuo, Jon

2004-01-01

High temperature heat pipes are being evaluated for use in energy conversion applications such as fuel cells, gas turbine re-combustors, and Stirling cycle heat sources; with the resurgence of space nuclear power, additional applications include reactor heat removal elements and radiator elements. Long operating life and reliable performance are critical requirements for these applications. Accordingly long-term materials compatibility is being evaluated through the use of high temperature life test heat pipes. Thermacore International, Inc., has carried out several sodium heat pipe life tests to establish long term operating reliability. Four sodium heat pipes have recently demonstrated favorable materials compatibility and heat transport characteristics at high operating temperatures in air over long time periods. A 3l6L stainless steel heat pipe with a sintered porous nickel wick structure and an integral brazed cartridge heater has successfully operated at 650 to 700 C for over 115,000 hours without signs of failure. A second 3l6L stainless steel heat pipe with a specially-designed Inconel 60 I rupture disk and a sintered nickel powder wick has demonstrated over 83,000 hours at 600 to 650 C with similar success. A representative one-tenth segment Stirling Space Power Converter heat pipe with an Inconel 718 envelope and a stainless steel screen wick has operated for over 41 ,000 hours at nearly 700 0c. A hybrid (i.e. gas-fired and solar) heat pipe with a Haynes 230 envelope and a sintered porous nickel wick structure was operated for about 20,000 hours at nearly 700 C without signs of degradation. These life test results collectively have demonstrated the potential for high temperature heat pipes to serve as reliable energy conversion system components for power applications that require long operating lifetime with high reliability, Detailed design specifications, operating hi story, and test results are described for each of these sodium heat pipes. Lessons learned and future life test plans are also discussed.

Unbiased multi-fidelity estimate of failure probability of a free plane jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Alexandre; Kramer, Boris; Willcox, Karen; Peherstorfer, Benjamin

2017-11-01

Estimating failure probability related to fluid flows is a challenge because it requires a large number of evaluations of expensive models. We address this challenge by leveraging multiple low fidelity models of the flow dynamics to create an optimal unbiased estimator. In particular, we investigate the effects of uncertain inlet conditions in the width of a free plane jet. We classify a condition as failure when the corresponding jet width is below a small threshold, such that failure is a rare event (failure probability is smaller than 0.001). We estimate failure probability by combining the frameworks of multi-fidelity importance sampling and optimal fusion of estimators. Multi-fidelity importance sampling uses a low fidelity model to explore the parameter space and create a biasing distribution. An unbiased estimate is then computed with a relatively small number of evaluations of the high fidelity model. In the presence of multiple low fidelity models, this framework offers multiple competing estimators. Optimal fusion combines all competing estimators into a single estimator with minimal variance. We show that this combined framework can significantly reduce the cost of estimating failure probabilities, and thus can have a large impact in fluid flow applications. This work was funded by DARPA.

Bounding the Failure Probability Range of Polynomial Systems Subject to P-box Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a reliability analysis framework for systems subject to multiple design requirements that depend polynomially on the uncertainty. Uncertainty is prescribed by probability boxes, also known as p-boxes, whose distribution functions have free or fixed functional forms. An approach based on the Bernstein expansion of polynomials and optimization is proposed. In particular, we search for the elements of a multi-dimensional p-box that minimize (i.e., the best-case) and maximize (i.e., the worst-case) the probability of inner and outer bounding sets of the failure domain. This technique yields intervals that bound the range of failure probabilities. The offset between this bounding interval and the actual failure probability range can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort.

Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

2017-12-01

Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean- pbf optimization. The effectiveness of using buffered failure probability compared to the failure probability is tested by comparing the solutions obtained by using mean-pbf and mean-pf optimizations.

Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method

PubMed Central

Fu, Xiao; Gu, Chong-Shi; Su, Huai-Zhi; Qin, Xiang-Nan

2018-01-01

Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level. PMID:29710824

A risk-based approach to flammable gas detector spacing.

PubMed

Defriend, Stephen; Dejmek, Mark; Porter, Leisa; Deshotels, Bob; Natvig, Bernt

2008-11-15

Flammable gas detectors allow an operating company to address leaks before they become serious, by automatically alarming and by initiating isolation and safe venting. Without effective gas detection, there is very limited defense against a flammable gas leak developing into a fire or explosion that could cause loss of life or escalate to cascading failures of nearby vessels, piping, and equipment. While it is commonly recognized that some gas detectors are needed in a process plant containing flammable gas or volatile liquids, there is usually a question of how many are needed. The areas that need protection can be determined by dispersion modeling from potential leak sites. Within the areas that must be protected, the spacing of detectors (or alternatively, number of detectors) should be based on risk. Detector design can be characterized by spacing criteria, which is convenient for design - or alternatively by number of detectors, which is convenient for cost reporting. The factors that influence the risk are site-specific, including process conditions, chemical composition, number of potential leak sites, piping design standards, arrangement of plant equipment and structures, design of isolation and depressurization systems, and frequency of detector testing. Site-specific factors such as those just mentioned affect the size of flammable gas cloud that must be detected (within a specified probability) by the gas detection system. A probability of detection must be specified that gives a design with a tolerable risk of fires and explosions. To determine the optimum spacing of detectors, it is important to consider the probability that a detector will fail at some time and be inoperative until replaced or repaired. A cost-effective approach is based on the combined risk from a representative selection of leakage scenarios, rather than a worst-case evaluation. This means that probability and severity of leak consequences must be evaluated together. In marine and offshore facilities, it is conventional to use computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to determine the size of a flammable cloud that would result from a specific leak scenario. Simpler modeling methods can be used, but the results are not very accurate in the region near the release, especially where flow obstructions are present. The results from CFD analyses on several leak scenarios can be plotted to determine the size of a flammable cloud that could result in an explosion that would generate overpressure exceeding the strength of the mechanical design of the plant. A cloud of this size has the potential to produce a blast pressure or flying debris capable of causing a fatality or subsequent damage to vessels or piping containing hazardous material. In cases where the leak results in a fire, rather than explosion, CFD or other modeling methods can estimate the size of a leak that would cause a fire resulting in subsequent damage to the facility, or would prevent the safe escape of personnel. The gas detector system must be capable of detecting a gas release or vapor cloud, and initiating action to prevent the leak from reaching a size that could cause injury or severe damage upon ignition.

76 FR 45617 - Notice of Lodging of the Consent Decree Under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-29

... underground storage tank (UST) facilities; failure to perform annual tests of automatic line leak detectors... detectors for piping on the UST systems. CHEVRON also agrees under the Consent Decree to install dispenser...

Analyses of Transistor Punchthrough Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicolas, David P.

1999-01-01

The failure of two transistors in the Altitude Switch Assembly for the Solid Rocket Booster followed by two additional failures a year later presented a challenge to failure analysts. These devices had successfully worked for many years on numerous missions. There was no history of failures with this type of device. Extensive checks of the test procedures gave no indication for a source of the cause. The devices were manufactured more than twenty years ago and failure information on this lot date code was not readily available. External visual exam, radiography, PEID, and leak testing were performed with nominal results Electrical testing indicated nearly identical base-emitter and base-collector characteristics (both forward and reverse) with a low resistance short emitter to collector. These characteristics are indicative of a classic failure mechanism called punchthrough. In failure analysis punchthrough refers to an condition where a relatively low voltage pulse causes the device to conduct very hard producing localized areas of thermal runaway or "hot spots". At one or more of these hot spots, the excessive currents melt the silicon. Heavily doped emitter material diffuses through the base region to the collector forming a diffusion pipe shorting the emitter to base to collector. Upon cooling, an alloy junction forms between the pipe and the base region. Generally, the hot spot (punch-through site) is under the bond and no surface artifact is visible. The devices were delidded and the internal structures were examined microscopically. The gold emitter lead was melted on one device, but others had anomalies in the metallization around the in-tact emitter bonds. The SEM examination confirmed some anomalies to be cosmetic defects while other anomalies were artifacts of the punchthrough site. Subsequent to these analyses, the contractor determined that some irregular testing procedures occurred at the time of the failures heretofore unreported. These testing irregularities involved the use of a breakout box and were the likely cause of the failures. There was no evidence to suggest a generic failure mechanism was responsible for the failure of these transistors.

Experimental investigation on frequency shifting of imperfect adhesively bonded pipe joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haiyam, F. N.; Hilmy, I.; Sulaeman, E.; Firdaus, T.; Adesta, E. Y. T.

2018-01-01

Inspection tests for any manufactured structure are compulsory in order to detect the existence of damage.It is to ensure the product integrity, reliability and to avoid further catastrophic failure. In this research, modal analysis was utilized to detect structural damage as one of the Non Destructive Testing (NDT) methods. Comparing the vibration signal of a healthy structure with a non-healthy signal was performed. A modal analysis of an adhesively bonded pipe joint was investigated with a healthy joint as a reference. The damage joint was engineered by inserting a nylon fiber, which act as an impurity at adhesive region. The impact test using hammer was utilized in this research. Identification of shifting frequency of a free supported and clamped pipe joint was performed.It was found that shifting frequency occurred to the lower side by 5%.

Defect Detection and Segmentation Framework for Remote Field Eddy Current Sensor Data

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Remote-Field Eddy-Current (RFEC) technology is often used as a Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) method to prevent water pipe failures. By analyzing the RFEC data, it is possible to quantify the corrosion present in pipes. Quantifying the corrosion involves detecting defects and extracting their depth and shape. For large sections of pipelines, this can be extremely time-consuming if performed manually. Automated approaches are therefore well motivated. In this article, we propose an automated framework to locate and segment defects in individual pipe segments, starting from raw RFEC measurements taken over large pipelines. The framework relies on a novel feature to robustly detect these defects and a segmentation algorithm applied to the deconvolved RFEC signal. The framework is evaluated using both simulated and real datasets, demonstrating its ability to efficiently segment the shape of corrosion defects. PMID:28984823

Defect Detection and Segmentation Framework for Remote Field Eddy Current Sensor Data.

PubMed

Falque, Raphael; Vidal-Calleja, Teresa; Miro, Jaime Valls

2017-10-06

Remote-Field Eddy-Current (RFEC) technology is often used as a Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) method to prevent water pipe failures. By analyzing the RFEC data, it is possible to quantify the corrosion present in pipes. Quantifying the corrosion involves detecting defects and extracting their depth and shape. For large sections of pipelines, this can be extremely time-consuming if performed manually. Automated approaches are therefore well motivated. In this article, we propose an automated framework to locate and segment defects in individual pipe segments, starting from raw RFEC measurements taken over large pipelines. The framework relies on a novel feature to robustly detect these defects and a segmentation algorithm applied to the deconvolved RFEC signal. The framework is evaluated using both simulated and real datasets, demonstrating its ability to efficiently segment the shape of corrosion defects.

Combining geomorphological mapping and near surface geophysics (GPR and ERT) to study piping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernatek-Jakiel, Anita; Kondracka, Marta

2016-12-01

This paper aims to provide a more comprehensive characterization of piping systems in mountainous areas under a temperate climate using geomorphological mapping and geophysical methods (electrical resistivity tomography - ERT and ground penetrating radar - GPR). The significance of piping in gully formation and hillslope hydrology has been discussed for many years, and most of the studies are based on surface investigations. However, it seems that most surface investigations underestimate this subsurface process. Therefore, our purpose was to estimate the scale of piping activity based on both surface and subsurface investigations. We used geophysical methods to detect the boundary of lateral water movement fostering pipe development and recognize the internal structure of the underlying materials. The survey was carried out in the Bereźnica Wyżna catchment, in the Bieszczady Mountains. (Eastern Carpathians, Poland), where pipes develop in Cambisols at a mean depth of about 0.7-0.8 m. The geophysical techniques that were used are shown to be successful in identifying pipes. GPR data suggest that the density of piping systems is much larger than that detectible from surface observations alone. Pipe length can be > 6.5-9.2% (maximum = 49%) higher than what surface mapping suggests. Thus, the significance of piping in hillslope hydrology and gully formation can be greater than previously assumed. These results also draw attention to the scale of piping activity in the Carpathians, where this process has been neglected for many years. The ERT profiles reveal areas affected by piping as places of higher resistivity values, which are an effect of a higher content of air-filled pores (due to higher soil porosity, intense biological activity, and well-developed soil structure). In addition, the ERT profiles show that the pipes in the study area develop at the soil-bedrock interface, probably above the layers of shales or mudstones which create a water restrictive layer. Our results illustrate the suitability and limitations of GPR and ERT to study soil piping. In general, geophysical surveying is useful for gathering more information on pipe density, potential pipe detection, and recognition of the internal structure of materials underlying the pipes. However, the interpretation of radargrams and ERT profiles should be always accompanied by detailed terrain mapping due to potential disturbances affecting geophysical profiles.

A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

PubMed

Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

2014-02-15

Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load within one year is also high. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

Evolution of thermal stress and failure probability during reduction and re-oxidation of solid oxide fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu; Jiang, Wenchun; Luo, Yun; Zhang, Yucai; Tu, Shan-Tung

2017-12-01

The reduction and re-oxidation of anode have significant effects on the integrity of the solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) sealed by the glass-ceramic (GC). The mechanical failure is mainly controlled by the stress distribution. Therefore, a three dimensional model of SOFC is established to investigate the stress evolution during the reduction and re-oxidation by finite element method (FEM) in this paper, and the failure probability is calculated using the Weibull method. The results demonstrate that the reduction of anode can decrease the thermal stresses and reduce the failure probability due to the volumetric contraction and porosity increasing. The re-oxidation can result in a remarkable increase of the thermal stresses, and the failure probabilities of anode, cathode, electrolyte and GC all increase to 1, which is mainly due to the large linear strain rather than the porosity decreasing. The cathode and electrolyte fail as soon as the linear strains are about 0.03% and 0.07%. Therefore, the re-oxidation should be controlled to ensure the integrity, and a lower re-oxidation temperature can decrease the stress and failure probability.

Acoustic measurements of soil-pipeflow and internal erosion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Internal erosion of soil pipes can lead to embankment failures, landslides, and gully erosion. Therefore, non-intrusive methods are needed to detect and monitor soil pipeflow and the resulting internal erosion. This paper presents a laboratory study using both active and passive acoustic techniques ...

Acoustic measurements of soil pipeflow and internal erosion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Internal erosion of soil pipes can lead to embankment failures, landslides, and gully erosion therefore non-intrusive methods are needed to detect and monitor soil pipeflow and the resulting internal erosion. This paper presents a laboratory study using both active and passive acoustic techniques to...

DEVELOPING A DATA BASE ON INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS

EPA Science Inventory

The distribution system is a major capital investment, and utilities must ensure they are getting the highest yield possible on that investment, both in terms of dollars and water quality. Knowing when pipe failure is likely to occur, determining the frequency of repairs, or bein...

Contraceptive failure in the United States

PubMed Central

Trussell, James

2013-01-01

This review provides an update of previous estimates of first-year probabilities of contraceptive failure for all methods of contraception available in the United States. Estimates are provided of probabilities of failure during typical use (which includes both incorrect and inconsistent use) and during perfect use (correct and consistent use). The difference between these two probabilities reveals the consequences of imperfect use; it depends both on how unforgiving of imperfect use a method is and on how hard it is to use that method perfectly. These revisions reflect new research on contraceptive failure both during perfect use and during typical use. PMID:21477680

Estimation of the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure using subset simulation and random set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, Diego A.; Uribe, Felipe; Hurtado, Jorge E.

2018-02-01

Random set theory is a general framework which comprises uncertainty in the form of probability boxes, possibility distributions, cumulative distribution functions, Dempster-Shafer structures or intervals; in addition, the dependence between the input variables can be expressed using copulas. In this paper, the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure are calculated by means of random set theory. In order to accelerate the calculation, a well-known and efficient probability-based reliability method known as subset simulation is employed. This method is especially useful for finding small failure probabilities in both low- and high-dimensional spaces, disjoint failure domains and nonlinear limit state functions. The proposed methodology represents a drastic reduction of the computational labor implied by plain Monte Carlo simulation for problems defined with a mixture of representations for the input variables, while delivering similar results. Numerical examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.

A Probabilistic Assessment of Failure for Air Force Building Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Rain Water Drainage System 1.000 0.225 0.085 0.424 0.800 0.968 0.998 4.449 D209001 Special Piping Systems 0.436 0.088 0.289 0.881 0.998 1.000 1.000...Rain Water Drainage 0.522 D2090 Other Plumbing Systems 0.303 D 30 H V A C D3010 Energy Supply 0.316 D3020 Heat Generating Systems 0.636 D3030...A PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF FAILURE FOR AIR FORCE BUILDING SYSTEMS THESIS Stephanie L

Analysis of Emergency Diesel Generators Failure Incidents in Nuclear Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, Ronderio LaDavis

In early years of operation, emergency diesel generators have had a minimal rate of demand failures. Emergency diesel generators are designed to operate as a backup when the main source of electricity has been disrupted. As of late, EDGs (emergency diesel generators) have been failing at NPPs (nuclear power plants) around the United States causing either station blackouts or loss of onsite and offsite power. These failures occurred from a specific type called demand failures. This thesis evaluated the current problem that raised concern in the nuclear industry which was averaging 1 EDG demand failure/year in 1997 to having an excessive event of 4 EDG demand failure year which occurred in 2011. To determine the next occurrence of the extreme event and possible cause to an event of such happening, two analyses were conducted, the statistical and root cause analysis. Considering the statistical analysis in which an extreme event probability approach was applied to determine the next occurrence year of an excessive event as well as, the probability of that excessive event occurring. Using the root cause analysis in which the potential causes of the excessive event occurred by evaluating, the EDG manufacturers, aging, policy changes/ maintenance practices and failure components. The root cause analysis investigated the correlation between demand failure data and historical data. Final results from the statistical analysis showed expectations of an excessive event occurring in a fixed range of probability and a wider range of probability from the extreme event probability approach. The root-cause analysis of the demand failure data followed historical statistics for the EDG manufacturer, aging and policy changes/ maintenance practices but, indicated a possible cause regarding the excessive event with the failure components. Conclusions showed the next excessive demand failure year, prediction of the probability and the next occurrence year of such failures, with an acceptable confidence level, was difficult but, it was likely that this type of failure will not be a 100 year event. It was noticeable to see that the majority of the EDG demand failures occurred within the main components as of 2005. The overall analysis of this study provided from percentages, indicated that it would be appropriate to make the statement that the excessive event was caused by the overall age (wear and tear) of the Emergency Diesel Generators in Nuclear Power Plants. Future Work will be to better determine the return period of the excessive event once the occurrence has happened for a second time by implementing the extreme event probability approach.

Game-Theoretic strategies for systems of components using product-form utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Hausken, K.

Many critical infrastructures are composed of multiple systems of components which are correlated so that disruptions to one may propagate to others. We consider such infrastructures with correlations characterized in two ways: (i) an aggregate failure correlation function specifies the conditional failure probability of the infrastructure given the failure of an individual system, and (ii) a pairwise correlation function between two systems specifies the failure probability of one system given the failure of the other. We formulate a game for ensuring the resilience of the infrastructure, wherein the utility functions of the provider and attacker are products of an infrastructuremore » survival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the numbers of system components attacked and reinforced. The survival probabilities of individual systems satisfy first-order differential conditions that lead to simple Nash Equilibrium conditions. We then derive sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities. We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing and energy grid infrastructures.« less

Analysis of failed nuclear plant components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diercks, D. R.

1993-12-01

Argonne National Laboratory has conducted analyses of failed components from nuclear power- gener-ating stations since 1974. The considerations involved in working with and analyzing radioactive compo-nents are reviewed here, and the decontamination of these components is discussed. Analyses of four failed components from nuclear plants are then described to illustrate the kinds of failures seen in serv-ice. The failures discussed are (1) intergranular stress- corrosion cracking of core spray injection piping in a boiling water reactor, (2) failure of canopy seal welds in adapter tube assemblies in the control rod drive head of a pressurized water reactor, (3) thermal fatigue of a recirculation pump shaft in a boiling water reactor, and (4) failure of pump seal wear rings by nickel leaching in a boiling water reactor.

Health and aesthetic impacts of copper corrosion on drinking water.

PubMed

Dietrich, A M; Glindemann, D; Pizarro, F; Gidi, V; Olivares, M; Araya, M; Camper, A; Duncan, S; Dwyer, S; Whelton, A J; Younos, T; Subramanian, S; Burlingame, G A; Khiari, D; Edwards, M

2004-01-01

Traditional research has focused on the visible effects of corrosion--failures, leaks, and financial debits--and often overlooked the more hidden health and aesthetic aspects. Clearly, corrosion of copper pipe can lead to levels of copper in the drinking water that exceed health guidelines and cause bitter or metallic tasting water. Because water will continue to be conveyed to consumers worldwide through metal pipes, the water industry has to consider both the effects of water quality on corrosion and the effects of corrosion on water quality. Integrating four key factors--chemical/biological causes, economics, health and aesthetics--is critical for managing the distribution system to produce safe water that consumers will use with confidence. As technological developments improve copper pipes to minimize scaling and corrosion, it is essential to consider the health and aesthetic effects on an equal plane with chemical/biological causes and economics to produce water that is acceptable for public consumption.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaSalle, F.R.; Golbeg, P.R.; Chenault, D.M.

For reactor and nuclear facilities, both Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 50, and US Department of Energy Order 6430.1A require assessments of the interaction of non-Safety Class 1 piping and equipment with Safety Class 1 piping and equipment during a seismic event to maintain the safety function. The safety class systems of nuclear reactors or nuclear facilities are designed to the applicable American Society of Mechanical Engineers standards and Seismic Category 1 criteria that require rigorous analysis, construction, and quality assurance. Because non-safety class systems are generally designed to lesser standards and seismic criteria, they may become missilesmore » during a safe shutdown earthquake. The resistance of piping, tubing, and equipment to seismically generated missiles is addressed in the paper. Gross plastic and local penetration failures are considered with applicable test verification. Missile types and seismic zones of influence are discussed. Field qualification data are also developed for missile evaluation.« less

Chemical and Thermal Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bulluck, J. W.; Rushing, R. A.

1995-01-01

During the past six months we have conducted significant research in several domains in order to clarify and understanding the aging and chemical failure mechanism of thermoplastics (PVDF or Tefzel) for pipes. We organized numerous analytical studies with methods including Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, Dynamic Mechanical Analysis, Differential Scanning Calorimetry, and Stress Relaxation experiments. In addition we have reanalyzed previous thermogravimetric data concerning the rate of deplasticization of Coflon pipe. We investigated a number of aged samples of both Tefzel and Coflon that were forwarded from MERL. We conducted stress relaxation experiments of Coflon pipe at several temperatures and determined an activation energy. We also examined the dynamic mechanical response PVDF during deplasticization and during methanol plasticization. We performed numerous DSC analyses to research the changing crystalline morphology. We have noted significant changes in crystallinity upon aging for both PVDF and Tefzel. Little variation in elemental composition was noted for many of the aged Coflon and Tefzel samples tested.

Exploratory Research on Bearing Characteristics of Confined Stabilized Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuai Shuai; Gao, Zheng Guo; Li, Shi Yang; Cui, Wen Bo; Huang, Xin

2018-06-01

The performance of a new kind of confined stabilized soil (CSS) was investigated which was constructed by filling the stabilized soil, which was made by mixing soil with a binder containing a high content of expansive component, into an engineering plastic pipe. Cube compressive strength of the stabilized soil formed with constraint and axial compression performance of stabilized soil cylinders confined with the constraint pipe were measured. The results indicated that combining the constraint pipe and the binder containing expansion component could achieve such effects: higher production of expansive hydrates could be adopted so as to fill more voids in the stabilized soil and improve its strength; at the same time compressive prestress built on the core stabilized soil, combined of which hoop constraint provided effective radial compressive force on the core stabilized soil. These effects made the CSS acquire plastic failure mode and more than twice bearing capacity of ordinary stabilized soil with the same binder content.

Sensitivity to VSR failure: K pipe break accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meichle, R.H.

1969-09-12

Reactor effects of failure of a safety rod to scram can be considered in two major respects: The reduction in total safety system strength which will affect the amount of ``prompt drop`` and subsequent flux decay rate of the average neutron flux-level; and the change in local flux distribution due to the absence of the particular rod which fails to enter the reactor. The purpose of this memorandum is to describe the physical effects involved and to indicate the approximate magnitude of both reactor-wide and localized changes in event of failure of a VSR simultaneous with a K Reactor risermore » accident.« less

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit. [inertial platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

Three-dimensional shape measurement system applied to superficial inspection of non-metallic pipes for the hydrocarbons transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arciniegas, Javier R.; González, Andrés. L.; Quintero, L. A.; Contreras, Carlos R.; Meneses, Jaime E.

2014-05-01

Three-dimensional shape measurement is a subject that consistently produces high scientific interest and provides information for medical, industrial and investigative applications, among others. In this paper, it is proposed to implement a three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction system for applications in superficial inspection of non-metallic pipes for the hydrocarbons transport. The system is formed by a CCD camera, a video-projector and a laptop and it is based on fringe projection technique. System functionality is evidenced by evaluating the quality of three-dimensional reconstructions obtained, which allow observing the failures and defects on the study object surface.

[Comments on the use of the "life-table method" in orthopedics].

PubMed

Hassenpflug, J; Hahne, H J; Hedderich, J

1992-01-01

In the description of long term results, e.g. of joint replacements, survivorship analysis is used increasingly in orthopaedic surgery. The survivorship analysis is more useful to describe the frequency of failure rather than global statements in percentage. The relative probability of failure for fixed intervals is drawn from the number of controlled patients and the frequency of failure. The complementary probabilities of success are linked in their temporal sequence thus representing the probability of survival at a fixed endpoint. Necessary condition for the use of this procedure is the exact definition of moment and manner of failure. It is described how to establish survivorship tables.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swamy, S.A.; Bhowmick, D.C.; Prager, D.E.

The regulatory requirements for postulated pipe ruptures have changed significantly since the first nuclear plants were designed. The Leak-Before-Break (LBB) methodology is now accepted as a technically justifiable approach for eliminating postulation of double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGB) in high energy piping systems. The previous pipe rupture design requirements for nuclear power plant applications are responsible for all the numerous and massive pipe whip restraints and jet shields installed for each plant. This results in significant plant congestion, increased labor costs and radiation dosage for normal maintenance and inspection. Also the restraints increase the probability of interference between the piping andmore » supporting structures during plant heatup, thereby potentially impacting overall plant reliability. The LBB approach to eliminate postulating ruptures in high energy piping systems is a significant improvement to former regulatory methodologies, and therefore, the LBB approach to design is gaining worldwide acceptance. However, the methods and criteria for LBB evaluation depend upon the policy of individual country and significant effort continues towards accomplishing uniformity on a global basis. In this paper the historical development of the U.S. LBB criteria will be traced and the results of an LBB evaluation for a typical Japanese PWR primary loop applying U.S. NRC approved methods will be presented. In addition, another approach using the Japanese LBB criteria will be shown and compared with the U.S. criteria. The comparison will be highlighted in this paper with detailed discussion.« less

Flexible mobile robot system for smart optical pipe inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kampfer, Wolfram; Bartzke, Ralf; Ziehl, Wolfgang

1998-03-01

Damages of pipes can be inspected and graded by TV technology available on the market. Remotely controlled vehicles carry a TV-camera through pipes. Thus, depending on the experience and the capability of the operator, diagnosis failures can not be avoided. The classification of damages requires the knowledge of the exact geometrical dimensions of the damages such as width and depth of cracks, fractures and defect connections. Within the framework of a joint R&D project a sensor based pipe inspection system named RODIAS has been developed with two partners from industry and research institute. It consists of a remotely controlled mobile robot which carries intelligent sensors for on-line sewerage inspection purpose. The sensor is based on a 3D-optical sensor and a laser distance sensor. The laser distance sensor is integrated in the optical system of the camera and can measure the distance between camera and object. The angle of view can be determined from the position of the pan and tilt unit. With coordinate transformations it is possible to calculate the spatial coordinates for every point of the video image. So the geometry of an object can be described exactly. The company Optimess has developed TriScan32, a special software for pipe condition classification. The user can start complex measurements of profiles, pipe displacements or crack widths simply by pressing a push-button. The measuring results are stored together with other data like verbal damage descriptions and digitized images in a data base.

A Framework for Final Drive Simultaneous Failure Diagnosis Based on Fuzzy Entropy and Sparse Bayesian Extreme Learning Machine

PubMed Central

Ye, Qing; Pan, Hao; Liu, Changhua

2015-01-01

This research proposes a novel framework of final drive simultaneous failure diagnosis containing feature extraction, training paired diagnostic models, generating decision threshold, and recognizing simultaneous failure modes. In feature extraction module, adopt wavelet package transform and fuzzy entropy to reduce noise interference and extract representative features of failure mode. Use single failure sample to construct probability classifiers based on paired sparse Bayesian extreme learning machine which is trained only by single failure modes and have high generalization and sparsity of sparse Bayesian learning approach. To generate optimal decision threshold which can convert probability output obtained from classifiers into final simultaneous failure modes, this research proposes using samples containing both single and simultaneous failure modes and Grid search method which is superior to traditional techniques in global optimization. Compared with other frequently used diagnostic approaches based on support vector machine and probability neural networks, experiment results based on F 1-measure value verify that the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework which are crucial for simultaneous failure diagnosis are superior to the existing approach. PMID:25722717

Reliability of a Parallel Pipe Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herrera, Edgar; Chamis, Christopher (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a parallel pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the head values of two parallel lines at certain flow rates. The probability that the flow rates in the lines will be less than their specified minimums will be discussed.

Composition of primary fluid and melt inclusions in regenerated olivines from hypabyssal kimberlites of the Malokuonapskaya pipe (Yakutia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomilenko, A. A.; Kuzmin, D. V.; Bulbak, T. A.; Timina, T. Yu.; Sobolev, N. V.

2015-11-01

The primary fluid and melt inclusions in regenerated zonal crystals of olivine from kimberlites of the Malokuonapskaya pipe were first examined by means of microthermometry, optic and scanning electron microscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. The high-pressure genesis of homogenous central parts of the olivines was revealed, probably under intense metasomatism at early hypogene stages with subsequent regeneration in the kimberlitic melt. The olivine crystals were regenerated from silicate-carbonate melts at about 1100°C. The composition of the kimberlitic melt was changed by way of an increase in the calcium content.

Passive advection-dispersion in networks of pipes: Effect of connectivity and relationship to permeability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernabé, Y.; Wang, Y.; Qi, T.; Li, M.

2016-02-01

The main purpose of this work is to investigate the relationship between passive advection-dispersion and permeability in porous materials presumed to be statistically homogeneous at scales larger than the pore scale but smaller than the reservoir scale. We simulated fluid flow through pipe network realizations with different pipe radius distributions and different levels of connectivity. The flow simulations used periodic boundary conditions, allowing monitoring of the advective motion of solute particles in a large periodic array of identical network realizations. In order to simulate dispersion, we assumed that the solute particles obeyed Taylor dispersion in individual pipes. When a particle entered a pipe, a residence time consistent with local Taylor dispersion was randomly assigned to it. When exiting the pipe, the particle randomly proceeded into one of the pipes connected to the original one according to probabilities proportional to the outgoing volumetric flow in each pipe. For each simulation we tracked the motion of at least 6000 solute particles. The mean fluid velocity was 10-3 ms-1, and the distance traveled was on the order of 10 m. Macroscopic dispersion was quantified using the method of moments. Despite differences arising from using different types of lattices (simple cubic, body-centered cubic, and face-centered cubic), a number of general observations were made. Longitudinal dispersion was at least 1 order of magnitude greater than transverse dispersion, and both strongly increased with decreasing pore connectivity and/or pore size variability. In conditions of variable hydraulic radius and fixed pore connectivity and pore size variability, the simulated dispersivities increased as power laws of the hydraulic radius and, consequently, of permeability, in agreement with previously published experimental results. Based on these observations, we were able to resolve some of the complexity of the relationship between dispersivity and permeability.

A risk assessment method for multi-site damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry Russell, Jr.

This research focused on developing probabilistic methods suitable for computing small probabilities of failure, e.g., 10sp{-6}, of structures subject to multi-site damage (MSD). MSD is defined as the simultaneous development of fatigue cracks at multiple sites in the same structural element such that the fatigue cracks may coalesce to form one large crack. MSD is modeled as an array of collinear cracks with random initial crack lengths with the centers of the initial cracks spaced uniformly apart. The data used was chosen to be representative of aluminum structures. The structure is considered failed whenever any two adjacent cracks link up. A fatigue computer model is developed that can accurately and efficiently grow a collinear array of arbitrary length cracks from initial size until failure. An algorithm is developed to compute the stress intensity factors of all cracks considering all interaction effects. The probability of failure of two to 100 cracks is studied. Lower bounds on the probability of failure are developed based upon the probability of the largest crack exceeding a critical crack size. The critical crack size is based on the initial crack size that will grow across the ligament when the neighboring crack has zero length. The probability is evaluated using extreme value theory. An upper bound is based on the probability of the maximum sum of initial cracks being greater than a critical crack size. A weakest link sampling approach is developed that can accurately and efficiently compute small probabilities of failure. This methodology is based on predicting the weakest link, i.e., the two cracks to link up first, for a realization of initial crack sizes, and computing the cycles-to-failure using these two cracks. Criteria to determine the weakest link are discussed. Probability results using the weakest link sampling method are compared to Monte Carlo-based benchmark results. The results indicate that very small probabilities can be computed accurately in a few minutes using a Hewlett-Packard workstation.

Accident hazard evaluation and control decisions on forested recreation sites

Treesearch

Lee A. Paine

1971-01-01

Accident hazard associated with trees on recreation sites is inherently concerned with probabilities. The major factors include the probabilities of mechanical failure and of target impact if failure occurs, the damage potential of the failure, and the target value. Hazard may be evaluated as the product of these factors; i.e., expected loss during the current...

Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying-Zhi; Liu, Jin-Tong; Shen, Gui-Xiang; Long, Zhe; Sun, Shu-Guang

2017-07-01

In order to rectify the problems that the component reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evaluation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influenced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure probability function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following: 1) The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2) The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree of the system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities.

PubMed

Porter, Keith; Ramer, Kyle

2012-01-01

Fault trees have long been used to estimate failure risk in earthquakes, especially for nuclear power plants (NPPs). One interesting application is that one can assess and manage the probability that two facilities - a primary and backup - would be simultaneously rendered inoperative in a single earthquake. Another is that one can calculate the probabilistic time required to restore a facility to functionality, and the probability that, during any given planning period, the facility would be rendered inoperative for any specified duration. A large new peer-reviewed library of component damageability and repair-time data for the first time enables fault trees to be used to calculate the seismic risk of operational failure and downtime for a wide variety of buildings other than NPPs. With the new library, seismic risk of both the failure probability and probabilistic downtime can be assessed and managed, considering the facility's unique combination of structural and non-structural components, their seismic installation conditions, and the other systems on which the facility relies. An example is offered of real computer data centres operated by a California utility. The fault trees were created and tested in collaboration with utility operators, and the failure probability and downtime results validated in several ways.

Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed

2018-04-01

This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.

Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

2005-01-01

We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

2017-05-01

In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

Two-IMU FDI performance of the sequential probability ratio test during shuttle entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, T. M.

1976-01-01

Performance data for the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) during shuttle entry are presented. Current modeling constants and failure thresholds are included for the full mission 3B from entry through landing trajectory. Minimum 100 percent detection/isolation failure levels and a discussion of the effects of failure direction are presented. Finally, a limited comparison of failures introduced at trajectory initiation shows that the SPRT algorithm performs slightly worse than the data tracking test.

Fault tree analysis of failure cause of crushing plant and mixing bed hall at Khoy cement factory in Iran☆

PubMed Central

Nouri.Gharahasanlou, Ali; Mokhtarei, Ashkan; Khodayarei, Aliasqar; Ataei, Mohammad

2014-01-01

Evaluating and analyzing the risk in the mining industry is a new approach for improving the machinery performance. Reliability, safety, and maintenance management based on the risk analysis can enhance the overall availability and utilization of the mining technological systems. This study investigates the failure occurrence probability of the crushing and mixing bed hall department at Azarabadegan Khoy cement plant by using fault tree analysis (FTA) method. The results of the analysis in 200 h operating interval show that the probability of failure occurrence for crushing, conveyor systems, crushing and mixing bed hall department is 73, 64, and 95 percent respectively and the conveyor belt subsystem found as the most probable system for failure. Finally, maintenance as a method of control and prevent the occurrence of failure is proposed. PMID:26779433

Fault tree analysis of failure cause of crushing plant and mixing bed hall at Khoy cement factory in Iran.

PubMed

Nouri Gharahasanlou, Ali; Mokhtarei, Ashkan; Khodayarei, Aliasqar; Ataei, Mohammad

2014-04-01

Evaluating and analyzing the risk in the mining industry is a new approach for improving the machinery performance. Reliability, safety, and maintenance management based on the risk analysis can enhance the overall availability and utilization of the mining technological systems. This study investigates the failure occurrence probability of the crushing and mixing bed hall department at Azarabadegan Khoy cement plant by using fault tree analysis (FTA) method. The results of the analysis in 200 h operating interval show that the probability of failure occurrence for crushing, conveyor systems, crushing and mixing bed hall department is 73, 64, and 95 percent respectively and the conveyor belt subsystem found as the most probable system for failure. Finally, maintenance as a method of control and prevent the occurrence of failure is proposed.

A study on fatigue strength reduction factor for small diameter socket welded pipe joints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higuchi, Makoto; Nakagawa, Akira; Hayashi, Makoto

1996-12-01

Factors that may exert influence on the fatigue strength of small diameter socket welded joints of nominal diameter in the 20--50 mm range have been investigated by the fully reversed four-point bending fatigue test with the material, diameter, pipe schedule, throat depth, bead shape, slip-on gap, and root defect as the testing parameters. The fatigue strength of socket joints depended acutely on the diameter. When the diameter is large, the fatigue strength tended to be low and the fracture is of the root-failure mode; when it is small, on the other hand, the fatigue strength is high and the fracturemore » is of the toe-failure mode. Stainless steel proved to be superior to carbon steel; it gave rise to 1.37 times the fatigue strength of the latter for socket joints of nominal diameter 50 mm; the fatigue strength reduction factor determined at 10{sup 7} cycles with respect to the fatigue strength of smooth base metal in the fully reversed fatigue was about 4 for stainless steel and about 5 for carbon steel. The fatigue strength was higher, the larger the Sche number (i.e., the thicker the pipe wall); it was improved markedly by placing one final refinement pass on the toe or by eliminating the slip-on gap. An empirical formula relating the size of the root defect to the fatigue strength reduction has been proposed.« less

Reliability Analysis of Systems Subject to First-Passage Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutes, Loren D.; Sarkani, Shahram

2009-01-01

An obvious goal of reliability analysis is the avoidance of system failure. However, it is generally recognized that it is often not feasible to design a practical or useful system for which failure is impossible. Thus it is necessary to use techniques that estimate the likelihood of failure based on modeling the uncertainty about such items as the demands on and capacities of various elements in the system. This usually involves the use of probability theory, and a design is considered acceptable if it has a sufficiently small probability of failure. This report contains findings of analyses of systems subject to first-passage failure.

Geochemical soil sampling for deeply-buried mineralized breccia pipes, northwestern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wenrich, K.J.; Aumente-Modreski, R. M.

1994-01-01

Thousands of solution-collapse breccia pipes crop out in the canyons and on the plateaus of northwestern Arizona; some host high-grade uranium deposits. The mineralized pipes are enriched in Ag, As, Ba, Co, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, V and Zn. These breccia pipes formed as sedimentary strata collapsed into solution caverns within the underlying Mississippian Redwall Limestone. A typical pipe is approximately 100 m (300 ft) in diameter and extends upward from the Redwall Limestone as much as 1000 m (3000 ft). Unmineralized gypsum and limestone collapses rooted in the Lower Permian Kaibab Limestone or Toroweap Formation also occur throughout this area. Hence, development of geochemical tools that can distinguish these unmineralized collapse structures, as well as unmineralized breccia pipes, from mineralized breccia pipes could significantly reduce drilling costs for these orebodies commonly buried 300-360 m (1000-1200 ft) below the plateau surface. Design and interpretation of soil sampling surveys over breccia pipes are plagued with several complications. (1) The plateau-capping Kaibab Limestone and Moenkopi Formation are made up of diverse lithologies. Thus, because different breccia pipes are capped by different lithologies, each pipe needs to be treated as a separate geochemical survey with its own background samples. (2) Ascertaining true background is difficult because of uncertainties in locations of poorly-exposed collapse cones and ring fracture zones that surround the pipes. Soil geochemical surveys were completed on 50 collapse structures, three of which are known mineralized breccia pipes. Each collapse structure was treated as an independent geochemical survey. Geochemical data from each collapse feature were plotted on single-element geochemical maps and processed by multivariate factor analysis. To contrast the results between geochemical surveys (collapse structures), a means of quantifying the anomalousness of elements at each site was developed. This degree of anomalousness, named the "correlation value", was used to rank collapse features by their potential to overlie a deeply-buried mineralized breccia pipe. Soil geochemical results from the three mineralized breccia pipes (the only three of the 50 that had previously been drilled) show that: (1) Soils above the SBF pipe contain significant enrichment of Ag, Al, As, Ba, Ga, K, La, Mo, Nd, Ni, Pb, Sc, Th, U and Zn, and depletion in Ca, Mg and Sr, in contrast to soils outside the topographic and structural rim; (2) Soils over the inner treeless zone of the Canyon pipe show Mo and Pb enrichment anf As and Ga depletion, in contrast to soils from the surrounding forest; and (3) The soil survey of the Mohawk Canyon pipe was a failure because of the rocky terrane and lack of a B soil horizon, or because the pipe plunges. At least 11 of the 47 other collapse structures studied contain anomalous soil enrichments similar to the SBF uranium ore-bearing pipe, and thus have good potential as exploration targets for uranium. One of these 11, #1102, does contain surface mineralized rock. These surveys suggest that soil geochemical sampling is a useful tool for the recognition of many collapse structures with underlying ore-bearing breccia pipes. ?? 1994.

Typical uses of NASTRAN in a petrochemical industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, J. R.

1978-01-01

NASTRAN was principally used to perform failure analysis and redesign process equipment. It was also employed in the evaluation of vendor designs and proposed design modifications to existing process equipment. Stress analysis of forced draft fans, distillation trays, metal stacks, jacketed pipes, heat exchangers, large centrifugal fans, and agitator support structures are described.

Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) low-temperature heat pipe experiment package power system results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tiller, Smith E.; Sullivan, David

1992-01-01

An overview of a self-contained Direct Energy Transfer Power System which was developed to provide power to the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) Low-Temperature Heat Pipe Experiment Package is presented. The power system operated successfully for the entire mission. Data recorded by the onboard recorder shows that the system operated within design specifications. Other than unanticipated overcharging of the battery, the power system operated as expected for nearly 32,000 low earth orbit cycles, and was still operational when tested after the LDEF recovery. Some physical damage was sustained by the solar array panels due to micrometeoroid hits, but there were not electrical failures.

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) Loop Heat Pipes: An Eventual First Year On-Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grob, E.; Baker, C.; McCarthy, T.

2004-01-01

Goddard Space Flight Center's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) is the sole scientific instrument on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) that was launched on January 12, 2003 from Vandenberg AFB. A thermal control architecture based on propylene Loop Heat Pipe technology was developed to provide selectable/stable temperature control for the lasers and other electronics over the widely varying mission environment. Following a nominal LHP and instrument start-up, the mission was interrupted with the failure of the first laser after only 36 days of operation. During the 5-month failure investigation, the two GLAS LHPs and the electronics operated nominally, using heaters as a substitute for the laser heat load. Just prior to resuming the mission, following a seasonal spacecraft yaw maneuver, one of the LHPs deprimed and created a thermal runaway condition that resulted in an emergency shutdown of the GLAS instrument. This paper presents details of the LHP anomaly, the resulting investigation and recovery, along with on-orbit flight data during these critical events.

Cavitating flow during water hammer using a generalized interface vaporous cavitation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadafi, Mohamadhosein; Riasi, Alireza; Nourbakhsh, Seyed Ahmad

2012-10-01

In a transient flow simulation, column separation may occur when the calculated pressure head decreases to the saturated vapor pressure head in a computational grid. Abrupt valve closure or pump failure can result in a fast transient flow with column separation, potentially causing problems such as pipe failure, hydraulic equipment damage, cavitation or corrosion. This paper reports a numerical study of water hammer with column separation in a simple reservoir-pipeline-valve system and pumping station. The governing equations for two-phase transient flow in pipes are solved based on the method of characteristics (MOC) using a generalized interface vaporous cavitating model (GIVCM). The numerical results were compared with the experimental data for validation purposes, and the comparison indicated that the GIVCM describes the experimental results more accurately than the discrete vapor cavity model (DVCM). In particular, the GIVCM correlated better with the experimental data than the DVCM in terms of timing and pressure magnitude. The effects of geometric and hydraulic parameters on flow behavior in a pumping station with column separation were also investigated in this study.

Method to measure efficiently rare fluctuations of turbulence intensity for turbulent-laminar transitions in pipe flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemoto, Takahiro; Alexakis, Alexandros

2018-02-01

The fluctuations of turbulence intensity in a pipe flow around the critical Reynolds number is difficult to study but important because they are related to turbulent-laminar transitions. We here propose a rare-event sampling method to study such fluctuations in order to measure the time scale of the transition efficiently. The method is composed of two parts: (i) the measurement of typical fluctuations (the bulk part of an accumulative probability function) and (ii) the measurement of rare fluctuations (the tail part of the probability function) by employing dynamics where a feedback control of the Reynolds number is implemented. We apply this method to a chaotic model of turbulent puffs proposed by Barkley and confirm that the time scale of turbulence decay increases super exponentially even for high Reynolds numbers up to Re =2500 , where getting enough statistics by brute-force calculations is difficult. The method uses a simple procedure of changing Reynolds number that can be applied even to experiments.

Characterization of a carbon fiber reinforced polymer repair system for structurally deficient steel piping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Jeffrey M.

This Dissertation investigates a carbon fiber reinforced polymer repair system for structurally deficient steel piping. Numerous techniques exist for the repair of high-pressure steel piping. One repair technology that is widely gaining acceptance is composite over-wraps. Thermal analytical evaluations of the epoxy matrix material produced glass transition temperature results, a cure kinetic model, and a workability chart. These results indicate a maximum glass transition temperature of 80°C (176°F) when cured in ambient conditions. Post-curing the epoxy, however, resulted in higher glass-transition temperatures. The accuracy of cure kinetic model presented is temperature dependent; its accuracy improves with increased cure temperatures. Cathodic disbondment evaluations of the composite over-wrap show the epoxy does not breakdown when subjected to a constant voltage of -1.5V and the epoxy does not allow corrosion to form under the wrap from permeation. Combustion analysis of the composite over-wrap system revealed the epoxy is flammable when in direct contact with fire. To prevent combustion, an intumescent coating was developed to be applied on the composite over-wrap. Results indicate that damaged pipes repaired with the carbon fiber composite over-wrap withstand substantially higher static pressures and exhibit better fatigue characteristics than pipes lacking repair. For loss up to 80 percent of the original pipe wall thickness, the composite over-wrap achieved failure pressures above the pipe's specified minimum yield stress during monotonic evaluations and reached the pipe's practical fatigue limit during cyclical pressure testing. Numerous repairs were made to circular, thru-wall defects and monotonic pressure tests revealed containment up to the pipe's specified minimum yield strength for small diameter defects. The energy release rate of the composite over-wrap/steel interface was obtained from these full-scale, leaking pipe evaluations and results indicate a large amount of scatter is associated with this test method. Due to the large amount of scatter present in the leaking pipe evaluations (energy release rate tests), a new laboratory specimen was created to evaluate mixed mode debonding of composite over-wrapped piping. The laboratory specimen results are much more conservative than the leaking pipe evaluations. The laboratory specimen results, however, agree quite favorably to a closed form solution developed in this Dissertation, as well as to energy release rate calculations performed by two different finite element analysis methods, the Modified Crack Closure Integral and the change in compliance method.

Final Report For The Erosion And Corrosion Analysis Of Waste Transfer Primary Pipeline Sections From 241-SY Tank Farm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Page, J. S.; Wyrwas, R. B.; Cooke, G. A.

Three sections of primary transfer pipeline removed from the 241-SY Tank Farm in Hanford's 200 West area, labeled as SN-285, SN-286, and SN-278, were analyzed for the presence and amount of corrosion and erosion on the inside surface of the transfer pipe. All three sections of pipe, ranging in length between 6 and 8 in., were received at the 222-S Laboratory still in the pipe-in-pipe assembly. The annular spaces were filled with urethane foam injected into the pipes for as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) purposes. The 3-in. primary transfer pipes were first separated from the outer encasement, 6-in. pipes.more » The pipes were cut into small sections, or coupons, based upon the results of a non-destructive pipe wall thickness measurement which used an ultrasonic transducer. Following removal of the foam, the coupons were subjected to a series of analytical methods utilizing both optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy to obtain erosion and corrosion information. The ultrasonic transducer analysis of the SN-285 primary pipe did not show any thinned locations in the pipe wall which were outside the expected range for the 3-in. schedule 40 pipe of 216 mils. A coupon was cut from the thinnest area on the pipe, and analysis of the inside surface, which was in contact with the tank waste, revealed a continuous layer of corrosion ~ 100 11m (4 mils) thick under a semi-continuous layer of tank waste residue ~ 20 11m (1 mil) thick. This residue layer was composed of an amorphous phase rich in chromium, magnesium, calcium, and chlorine. Small pits were detected throughout the inside pipe surface with depths up to ~ 50 11m (2 mils). Similarly, the SN-286 primary pipe did not show, by the ultrasonic transducer measurements, any thinned locations in the pipe wall which were outside the expected range for this pipe. Analysis of the coupon cut from the pipe section showed the presence of a tank waste layer containing sodium aluminate and phases rich in iron, calcium, and chromium. This layer was removed by a cleaning process that left a pipe surface continuous in iron oxide/hydroxide (corrosion) with pockets of aluminum oxide, possibly gibbsite. The corrosion layer was ~ 50 11m (2 mil) thick over non-continuous pits less than ~ 50 11m deep (2 mils). Small particles of aluminum oxide were also detected under the corrosion layer. The ultrasonic transducer analysis of SN-278, like the previous primary pipes, did not reveal any noticeable thinning of the pipe wall. Analysis of the coupon cut from the pipe showed that the inside surface had a layer of tank waste residue that was partially detached from the pipe wall. This layer was easily scraped from the surface and was composed of two separate layers. The underlying layer was ~ 350 11m (14 mils) thick and composed of a cementation of small aluminum oxide (probably gibbsite) particles. A thinner layer on top of the aluminum oxide layer was rich in carbon and chlorine. Scattered pitting was observed on the inside pipe surface with one pit as deep as 200 11m (8 mils).« less

Seismic and structural characterization of the fluid bypass system using 3D and partial stack seismic from passive margin: inside the plumbing system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacopini, David; Maestrelli, Daniele; Jihad, Ali; Bond, Clare; Bonini, Marco

2017-04-01

In recent years enormous attention has been paid to the understanding of the process and mechanism controlling the gas seepage and more generally the fluid expulsion affecting the earth system from onshore to offshore environment. This is because of their demonstrated impact to our environment, climate change and during subsea drilling operation. Several example from active and paleo system has been so far characterized and proposed using subsurface exploration, geophysical and geochemical monitoring technology approaches with the aims to explore what trigger and drive the overpressure necessary maintain the fluid/gas/material expulsion and what are the structure that act as a gateway for gaseous fluid and unconsolidated rock. In this contribution we explore a series of fluid escape structure (ranging from seepage pipes to large blowout pipes structure of km length) using 3D and partial stack seismic data from two distinctive passive margin from the north sea (Loyal field, West Shetland) and the Equatorial Brazil (Ceara' Basin). We will focuses on the characterization of the plumbing system internal architecture and, for selected example, exploring the AVO response (using partial stack) of the internal fluid/unconsolidated rock. The detailed seismic mapping and seismic attributes analysis of the conduit system helped us to recover some detail from the signal response of the chimney internal structures. We observed: (1) small to medium seeps and pipes following structural or sedimentary discontinuities (2) large pipes (probably incipient mud volcanoes) and blowup structures propagating upward irrespective of pre-existing fault by hydraulic fracturing and assisted by the buoyancy of a fluidised and mobilised mud-hydrocarbon mixture. The reflector termination observed inside the main conduits, the distribution of stacked bright reflectors and the AVO analysis suggests an evolution of mechanisms (involving mixture of gas, fluid and probably mud) during pipe birth and development, cycling through classical fluid escape pipes evoking non-Darcy flow to Darcy flow exploiting surrounding permeable bodies (during low fluid recharge period). Limit and uncertainty of the seismic data imaging the internal structure are still controlled by illumination factor, the lateral and vertical resolution (Fresnel. Tuning thickness) and scattering/noise effect of seismic wave when they interact with the plumbing system.

Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vitali, Roberto; Lutomski, Michael G.

2004-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.

Surface Disposal of Waste Water Treatment Plant Biosludge--an Important Source of Perfluorinated Compound Contamination in the Environment

EPA Science Inventory

What are “Biosolids”?- “Biosolids” are what remains after WWTP processing Sewage sludge probably a more accurate term - Could contain anything that comes down the pipe to the WWTP, varies greatly depending on community type, industry effluents, plant desig...

Quality Issues in Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCarty, John P.; Lyles, Garry M.

1997-01-01

Propulsion system quality is defined in this paper as having high reliability, that is, quality is a high probability of within-tolerance performance or operation. Since failures are out-of-tolerance performance, the probability of failures and their occurrence is the difference between high and low quality systems. Failures can be described at 3 levels: the system failure (which is the detectable end of a failure), the failure mode (which is the failure process), and the failure cause (which is the start). Failure causes can be evaluated & classified by type. The results of typing flight history failures shows that most failures are in unrecognized modes and result from human error or noise, i.e. failures are when engineers learn how things really work. Although the study based on US launch vehicles, a sampling of failures from other countries indicates the finding has broad application. The parameters of the design of a propulsion system are not single valued, but have dispersions associated with the manufacturing of parts. Many tests are needed to find failures, if the dispersions are large relative to tolerances, which could contribute to the large number of failures in unrecognized modes.

Sensory redundancy management: The development of a design methodology for determining threshold values through a statistical analysis of sensor output data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scalzo, F.

1983-01-01

Sensor redundancy management (SRM) requires a system which will detect failures and reconstruct avionics accordingly. A probability density function to determine false alarm rates, using an algorithmic approach was generated. Microcomputer software was developed which will print out tables of values for the cummulative probability of being in the domain of failure; system reliability; and false alarm probability, given a signal is in the domain of failure. The microcomputer software was applied to the sensor output data for various AFT1 F-16 flights and sensor parameters. Practical recommendations for further research were made.

An automated inner dimensional measurement system based on a laser displacement sensor for long-stepped pipes.

PubMed

Zhang, Fumin; Qu, Xinghua; Ouyang, Jianfei

2012-01-01

A novel measurement prototype based on a mobile vehicle that carries a laser scanning sensor is proposed. The prototype is intended for the automated measurement of the interior 3D geometry of large-diameter long-stepped pipes. The laser displacement sensor, which has a small measurement range, is mounted on an extended arm of known length. It is scanned to improve the measurement accuracy for large-sized pipes. A fixing mechanism based on two sections is designed to ensure that the stepped pipe is concentric with the axis of rotation of the system. Data are acquired in a cylindrical coordinate system and fitted in a circle to determine diameter. Systematic errors covering arm length, tilt, and offset errors are analyzed and calibrated. The proposed system is applied to sample parts and the results are discussed to verify its effectiveness. This technique measures a diameter of 600 mm with an uncertainty of 0.02 mm at a 95% confidence probability. A repeatability test is performed to examine precision, which is 1.1 μm. A laser tracker is used to verify the measurement accuracy of the system, which is evaluated as 9 μm within a diameter of 600 mm.

Smart manufacturing of complex shaped pipe components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salchak, Y. A.; Kotelnikov, A. A.; Sednev, D. A.; Borikov, V. N.

2018-03-01

Manufacturing industry is constantly improving. Nowadays the most relevant trend is widespread automation and optimization of the production process. This paper represents a novel approach for smart manufacturing of steel pipe valves. The system includes two main parts: mechanical treatment and quality assurance units. Mechanical treatment is performed by application of the milling machine with implementation of computerized numerical control, whilst the quality assurance unit contains three testing modules for different tasks, such as X-ray testing, optical scanning and ultrasound testing modules. The advances of each of them provide reliable results that contain information about any failures of the technological process, any deviations of geometrical parameters of the valves. The system also allows detecting defects on the surface or in the inner structure of the component.

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

Probabilistic analysis on the failure of reactivity control for the PWR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sony Tjahyani, D. T.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

The fundamental safety function of the power reactor is to control reactivity, to remove heat from the reactor, and to confine radioactive material. The safety analysis is used to ensure that each parameter is fulfilled during the design and is done by deterministic and probabilistic method. The analysis of reactivity control is important to be done because it will affect the other of fundamental safety functions. The purpose of this research is to determine the failure probability of the reactivity control and its failure contribution on a PWR design. The analysis is carried out by determining intermediate events, which cause the failure of reactivity control. Furthermore, the basic event is determined by deductive method using the fault tree analysis. The AP1000 is used as the object of research. The probability data of component failure or human error, which is used in the analysis, is collected from IAEA, Westinghouse, NRC and other published documents. The results show that there are six intermediate events, which can cause the failure of the reactivity control. These intermediate events are uncontrolled rod bank withdrawal at low power or full power, malfunction of boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal, malfunction of improper position of fuel assembly and ejection of control rod. The failure probability of reactivity control is 1.49E-03 per year. The causes of failures which are affected by human factor are boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal and malfunction of improper position for fuel assembly. Based on the assessment, it is concluded that the failure probability of reactivity control on the PWR is still within the IAEA criteria.

Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia

2015-04-26

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it ismore » difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.« less

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... phase of normal flight or when any anomalous condition exhibits the potential for a stage or its debris...

Directionality and Orientation Effects on the Resistance to Propagating Shear Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leis, B. N.; Barbaro, F. J.; Gray, J. M.

Hydrocarbon pipelines transporting compressible products like methane or high-vapor-pressure (HVP) liquids under supercritical conditions can be susceptible to long-propagating failures. As the unplanned release of such hydrocarbons can lead to significant pollution and/or the horrific potential of explosion and/or a very large fire, design criteria to preclude such failures were essential to environmental and public safety. Thus, technology was developed to establish the minimum arrest requirements to avoid such failures shortly after this design concern was evident. Soon after this technology emerged in the early 1970sit became evident that its predictions were increasinglynon-conservative as the toughness of line-pipe steel increased. A second potentially critical factor for what was a one-dimensional technology was that changes in steel processing led to directional dependence in both the flow and fracture properties. While recognized, this dependence was tacitly ignored in quantifying arrest, as were early observations that indicated propagating shear failure was controlled by plastic collapse rather than by fracture processes.

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Ryan, Mark R.; Runge, Michael C.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts

2011-01-01

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species' survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species' annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population's capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population's response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Contraceptive Failure in the United States: Estimates from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth.

PubMed

Sundaram, Aparna; Vaughan, Barbara; Kost, Kathryn; Bankole, Akinrinola; Finer, Lawrence; Singh, Susheela; Trussell, James

2017-03-01

Contraceptive failure rates measure a woman's probability of becoming pregnant while using a contraceptive. Information about these rates enables couples to make informed contraceptive choices. Failure rates were last estimated for 2002, and social and economic changes that have occurred since then necessitate a reestimation. To estimate failure rates for the most commonly used reversible methods in the United States, data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth were used; some 15,728 contraceptive use intervals, contributed by 6,683 women, were analyzed. Data from the Guttmacher Institute's 2008 Abortion Patient Survey were used to adjust for abortion underreporting. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the associated single-decrement probability of failure by duration of use. Failure rates were compared with those from 1995 and 2002. Long-acting reversible contraceptives (the IUD and the implant) had the lowest failure rates of all methods (1%), while condoms and withdrawal carried the highest probabilities of failure (13% and 20%, respectively). However, the failure rate for the condom had declined significantly since 1995 (from 18%), as had the failure rate for all hormonal methods combined (from 8% to 6%). The failure rate for all reversible methods combined declined from 12% in 2002 to 10% in 2006-2010. These broad-based declines in failure rates reverse a long-term pattern of minimal change. Future research should explore what lies behind these trends, as well as possibilities for further improvements. © 2017 The Authors. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Guttmacher Institute.

49 CFR 232.403 - Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices... Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices. (a) General. A one-way end-of-train device shall be... the rear unit from the brake pipe; (3) Designed so that an internal failure will not cause an...

49 CFR 232.403 - Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices... Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices. (a) General. A one-way end-of-train device shall be... the rear unit from the brake pipe; (3) Designed so that an internal failure will not cause an...

49 CFR 232.403 - Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices... Design standards for one-way end-of-train devices. (a) General. A one-way end-of-train device shall be... the rear unit from the brake pipe; (3) Designed so that an internal failure will not cause an...

Observations on water system and pipeline performance in the Limon area of Costa Rica due to the April 22, 1991 earthquake. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Rourke, M.J.; Ballantyne, D.

The document focuses on earthquake damage to water and oil pipelines, water supply, and water treatment following the 22 April 1991 Costa Rica Earthquake. The moment magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred approximately 40 km south-southwest of Limon, and resulted in a coseismic uplift of up to 1.5 meters along Costa Rica's east coast. The report also provides an overview of the engineering aspects of the event and recovery activities. Turbidity in the watershed which provides Limon's primary water supply increased to as high as 2.4 percent solids, making it extremely difficult to treat. In addition, the water treatment plant was damagedmore » by the earthquake. Cast iron, ductile iron and reinforced concrete cylinder pipe water transmission lines were damaged by both wave propagation and permanent ground deformation. Water distribution piping, also including PVC and galvanized iron, was similarly impacted. Documentation and evaluation of that damage is described, and compared with empirical estimates from previous earthquakes. Twin 150 mm (6 in), 100 km long, oil transmission lines suffered only a single failure from wrinkling. A description of the pipelines and the failure is provided.« less

Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2014-02-01

To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanical failure probability of glasses in Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinser, Donald L.; Wiedlocher, David E.

1992-01-01

Results of five years of earth-orbital exposure on mechanical properties of glasses indicate that radiation effects on mechanical properties of glasses, for the glasses examined, are less than the probable error of measurement. During the 5 year exposure, seven micrometeorite or space debris impacts occurred on the samples examined. These impacts were located in locations which were not subjected to effective mechanical testing, hence limited information on their influence upon mechanical strength was obtained. Combination of these results with micrometeorite and space debris impact frequency obtained by other experiments permits estimates of the failure probability of glasses exposed to mechanical loading under earth-orbit conditions. This probabilistic failure prediction is described and illustrated with examples.

On defense strategies for system of systems using aggregated correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Imam, Neena; Ma, Chris Y. T.

2017-04-01

We consider a System of Systems (SoS) wherein each system Si, i = 1; 2; ... ;N, is composed of discrete cyber and physical components which can be attacked and reinforced. We characterize the disruptions using aggregate failure correlation functions given by the conditional failure probability of SoS given the failure of an individual system. We formulate the problem of ensuring the survival of SoS as a game between an attacker and a provider, each with a utility function composed of asurvival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced.more » The survival probabilities of systems satisfy simple product-form, first-order differential conditions, which simplify the Nash Equilibrium (NE) conditions. We derive the sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of SoS survival probability at NE on cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities.We apply these results to a simplified model of distributed cloud computing infrastructure.« less

Estimation of probability of failure for damage-tolerant aerospace structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbert, Keith

The majority of aircraft structures are designed to be damage-tolerant such that safe operation can continue in the presence of minor damage. It is necessary to schedule inspections so that minor damage can be found and repaired. It is generally not possible to perform structural inspections prior to every flight. The scheduling is traditionally accomplished through a deterministic set of methods referred to as Damage Tolerance Analysis (DTA). DTA has proven to produce safe aircraft but does not provide estimates of the probability of failure of future flights or the probability of repair of future inspections. Without these estimates maintenance costs cannot be accurately predicted. Also, estimation of failure probabilities is now a regulatory requirement for some aircraft. The set of methods concerned with the probabilistic formulation of this problem are collectively referred to as Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis (PDTA). The goal of PDTA is to control the failure probability while holding maintenance costs to a reasonable level. This work focuses specifically on PDTA for fatigue cracking of metallic aircraft structures. The growth of a crack (or cracks) must be modeled using all available data and engineering knowledge. The length of a crack can be assessed only indirectly through evidence such as non-destructive inspection results, failures or lack of failures, and the observed severity of usage of the structure. The current set of industry PDTA tools are lacking in several ways: they may in some cases yield poor estimates of failure probabilities, they cannot realistically represent the variety of possible failure and maintenance scenarios, and they do not allow for model updates which incorporate observed evidence. A PDTA modeling methodology must be flexible enough to estimate accurately the failure and repair probabilities under a variety of maintenance scenarios, and be capable of incorporating observed evidence as it becomes available. This dissertation describes and develops new PDTA methodologies that directly address the deficiencies of the currently used tools. The new methods are implemented as a free, publicly licensed and open source R software package that can be downloaded from the Comprehensive R Archive Network. The tools consist of two main components. First, an explicit (and expensive) Monte Carlo approach is presented which simulates the life of an aircraft structural component flight-by-flight. This straightforward MC routine can be used to provide defensible estimates of the failure probabilities for future flights and repair probabilities for future inspections under a variety of failure and maintenance scenarios. This routine is intended to provide baseline estimates against which to compare the results of other, more efficient approaches. Second, an original approach is described which models the fatigue process and future scheduled inspections as a hidden Markov model. This model is solved using a particle-based approximation and the sequential importance sampling algorithm, which provides an efficient solution to the PDTA problem. Sequential importance sampling is an extension of importance sampling to a Markov process, allowing for efficient Bayesian updating of model parameters. This model updating capability, the benefit of which is demonstrated, is lacking in other PDTA approaches. The results of this approach are shown to agree with the results of the explicit Monte Carlo routine for a number of PDTA problems. Extensions to the typical PDTA problem, which cannot be solved using currently available tools, are presented and solved in this work. These extensions include incorporating observed evidence (such as non-destructive inspection results), more realistic treatment of possible future repairs, and the modeling of failure involving more than one crack (the so-called continuing damage problem). The described hidden Markov model / sequential importance sampling approach to PDTA has the potential to improve aerospace structural safety and reduce maintenance costs by providing a more accurate assessment of the risk of failure and the likelihood of repairs throughout the life of an aircraft.

A new algorithm for finding survival coefficients employed in reliability equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouricius, W. G.; Flehinger, B. J.

1973-01-01

Product reliabilities are predicted from past failure rates and reasonable estimate of future failure rates. Algorithm is used to calculate probability that product will function correctly. Algorithm sums the probabilities of each survival pattern and number of permutations for that pattern, over all possible ways in which product can survive.

A chi-square goodness-of-fit test for non-identically distributed random variables: with application to empirical Bayes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conover, W.J.; Cox, D.D.; Martz, H.F.

1997-12-01

When using parametric empirical Bayes estimation methods for estimating the binomial or Poisson parameter, the validity of the assumed beta or gamma conjugate prior distribution is an important diagnostic consideration. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests of the beta or gamma prior hypothesis are developed for use when the binomial sample sizes or Poisson exposure times vary. Nine examples illustrate the application of the methods, using real data from such diverse applications as the loss of feedwater flow rates in nuclear power plants, the probability of failure to run on demand and the failure rates of the high pressure coolant injection systems atmore » US commercial boiling water reactors, the probability of failure to run on demand of emergency diesel generators in US commercial nuclear power plants, the rate of failure of aircraft air conditioners, baseball batting averages, the probability of testing positive for toxoplasmosis, and the probability of tumors in rats. The tests are easily applied in practice by means of corresponding Mathematica{reg_sign} computer programs which are provided.« less

Continuous wavelet transform analysis and modal location analysis acoustic emission source location for nuclear piping crack growth monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohd, Shukri; Holford, Karen M.; Pullin, Rhys

2014-02-12

Source location is an important feature of acoustic emission (AE) damage monitoring in nuclear piping. The ability to accurately locate sources can assist in source characterisation and early warning of failure. This paper describe the development of a novelAE source location technique termed 'Wavelet Transform analysis and Modal Location (WTML)' based on Lamb wave theory and time-frequency analysis that can be used for global monitoring of plate like steel structures. Source location was performed on a steel pipe of 1500 mm long and 220 mm outer diameter with nominal thickness of 5 mm under a planar location test setup usingmore » H-N sources. The accuracy of the new technique was compared with other AE source location methods such as the time of arrival (TOA) techniqueand DeltaTlocation. Theresults of the study show that the WTML method produces more accurate location resultscompared with TOA and triple point filtering location methods. The accuracy of the WTML approach is comparable with the deltaT location method but requires no initial acoustic calibration of the structure.« less

Effect of cigar smoking on carboxyhaemoglobin and plasma nicotine concentrations in primary pipe and cigar smokers and ex-cigarette smokers

PubMed Central

Turner, J A McM; Sillett, R W; McNicol, M W

1977-01-01

Five ex-cigarette smokers and five primary pipe and cigar smokers each smoked a large cigar. Carboxyhaemoglobin (COHb) and plasma nicotine levels were measured. In the ex-cigarette smokers mean COHb rose from 2·9% to 9·6% and plasma nicotine from 79·0 nmol/l to 281 nmol/l (12·8-45·6 ng/ml). This response was similar to that of cigarette smokers smoking cigarettes, which indicated that the subjects had inhaled and absorbed significant amounts of nicotine. In the primary pipe and cigar smokers the mean COHb rose from 0·8% to 1·0% and the plasma nicotine from 21 nmol/l to 32 nmol/l (3·4-5·2 ng/ml), indicating neither significant inhalation nor significant nicotine absorption. Since ex-cigarette smokers do not seem to lose their habit of inhaling when they change to cigars, measures aimed at persuading smokers to switch to cigars will have little effect on their health. Pipe and cigar smokers who have never smoked cigarettes do not inhale, which probably accounts for their reduced incidence of coronary heart disease and lung cancer. But they also appear not to absorb nicotine, which suggests that nicotine is absorbed largely from the lung and that the buccal mucosa is unimportant. It also raises the interesting question of why primary pipe and cigar smokers do smoke. PMID:589225

Investigation of Stainless Steel Corrosion in Ultrahigh-Purity Water and Steam Systems by Surface Analytical Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Xia; Iacocca, Ronald G.; Bustard, Bethany L.; Kemp, Craig A. J.

2010-02-01

Stainless steel pipes with different degrees of rouging and a Teflon®-coated rupture disc with severe corrosion were thoroughly investigated by combining multiple surface analytical techniques. The surface roughness and iron oxide layer thickness increase with increasing rouge severity, and the chromium oxide layer coexists with the iron oxide layer in samples with various degrees of rouging. Unlike the rouging observed for stainless steel pipes, the fast degradation of the rupture disc was caused by a crevice corrosion environment created by perforations in the protective Teflon coating. This failure analysis clearly shows the highly corrosive nature of ultrapure water used in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products, and demonstrates some of the unexpected corrosion mechanisms that can be encountered in these environments.

The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

PubMed

Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H; Ford, Daniel A; Douglas, Judith V

2009-01-01

Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

Formation of carbonate pipes in the northern Okinawa Trough linked to strong sulfate exhaustion and iron supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Xiaotong; Guo, Zixiao; Chen, Shun; Sun, Zhilei; Xu, Hengchao; Ta, Kaiwen; Zhang, Jianchao; Zhang, Lijuan; Li, Jiwei; Du, Mengran

2017-05-01

The microbial anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), a key biogeochemical process that consumes substantial amounts of methane produced in seafloor sediments, can lead to the formation of carbonate deposits at or beneath the sea floor. Although Fe oxide-driven AOM has been identified in cold seep sediments, the exact mode by which it may influence the formation of carbonate deposits remains poorly understood. Here, we characterize the morphology, petrology and geochemistry of a methane-derived Fe-rich carbonate pipe in the northern Okinawa Trough (OT). We detect abundant authigenic pyrites, as well as widespread trace Fe, within microbial mat-like carbonate veins in the pipe. The in situ δ34S values of these pyrites range from -3.9 to 31.6‰ (VCDT), suggesting a strong consumption of seawater sulfate by sulfate-driven AOM at the bottom of sulfate reduction zone. The positive δ56Fe values of pyrite and notable enrichment of Fe in the OT pipe concurrently indicate that the pyrites are primarily derived from Fe oxides in deep sediments. We propose that the Fe-rich carbonate pipe formed at the bottom of sulfate reduction zone, below which Fe-driven AOM, rather than Fe-oxide reduction coupled to organic matter degradation, might be responsible for the abundantly available Fe2+ in the fluids from which pyrites precipitated. The Fe-rich carbonate pipe described in this study probably represents the first fossil example of carbonate deposits linked to Fe-driven AOM. Because Fe-rich carbonate deposits have also been found at other cold seeps worldwide, we infer that similar processes may play an essential role in biogeochemical cycling of sub-seafloor methane and Fe at continental margins.

Current deflection NDE for pipeline inspection and monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, Rollo; Cawley, Peter; Nagy, Peter B.

2016-02-01

Failure of oil and gas pipelines can often be catastrophic, therefore routine inspection for time dependent degradation is essential. In-line inspection is the most common method used; however, this requires the insertion and retrieval of an inspection tool that is propelled by the fluid in the pipe and risks becoming stuck, so alternative methods must often be employed. This work investigates the applicability of a non-destructive evaluation technique for both the detection and growth monitoring of defects, particularly corrosion under insulation. This relies on injecting an electric current along the pipe and indirectly measuring the deflection of current around defects from perturbations in the orthogonal components of the induced magnetic flux density. An array of three orthogonally oriented anisotropic magnetoresistive sensors has been used to measure the magnetic flux density surrounding a 6'' schedule-40 steel pipe carrying 2 A quasi-DC axial current. A finite element model has been developed that predicts the perturbations in magnetic flux density caused by current deflection which has been validated by experimental results. Measurements of the magnetic flux density at 50 mm lift-off from the pipe surface are stable and repeatable to the order of 100 pT which suggests that defect detection or monitoring growth of corrosion-type defects may be possible with a feasible magnitude of injected current. Magnetic signals are additionally incurred by changes in the wall thickness of the pipe due to manufacturing tolerances, and material property variations. If a monitoring scheme using baseline subtraction is employed then the sensitivity to defects can be improved while avoiding false calls.

Fuzzy-information-based robustness of interconnected networks against attacks and failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Qian; Zhu, Zhiliang; Wang, Yifan; Yu, Hai

2016-09-01

Cascading failure is fatal in applications and its investigation is essential and therefore became a focal topic in the field of complex networks in the last decade. In this paper, a cascading failure model is established for interconnected networks and the associated data-packet transport problem is discussed. A distinguished feature of the new model is its utilization of fuzzy information in resisting uncertain failures and malicious attacks. We numerically find that the giant component of the network after failures increases with tolerance parameter for any coupling preference and attacking ambiguity. Moreover, considering the effect of the coupling probability on the robustness of the networks, we find that the robustness of the assortative coupling and random coupling of the network model increases with the coupling probability. However, for disassortative coupling, there exists a critical phenomenon for coupling probability. In addition, a critical value that attacking information accuracy affects the network robustness is observed. Finally, as a practical example, the interconnected AS-level Internet in South Korea and Japan is analyzed. The actual data validates the theoretical model and analytic results. This paper thus provides some guidelines for preventing cascading failures in the design of architecture and optimization of real-world interconnected networks.

Dual permeability FEM models for distributed fiber optic sensors development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar-López, Juan Pablo; Bogaard, Thom

2017-04-01

Fiber optic cables are commonly known for being robust and reliable mediums for transferring information at the speed of light in glass. Billions of kilometers of cable have been installed around the world for internet connection and real time information sharing. Yet, fiber optic cable is not only a mean for information transfer but also a way to sense and measure physical properties of the medium in which is installed. For dike monitoring, it has been used in the past for detecting inner core and foundation temperature changes which allow to estimate water infiltration during high water events. The DOMINO research project, aims to develop a fiber optic based dike monitoring system which allows to directly sense and measure any pore pressure change inside the dike structure. For this purpose, questions like which location, how many sensors, which measuring frequency and which accuracy are required for the sensor development. All these questions may be initially answered with a finite element model which allows to estimate the effects of pore pressure change in different locations along the cross section while having a time dependent estimation of a stability factor. The sensor aims to monitor two main failure mechanisms at the same time; The piping erosion failure mechanism and the macro-stability failure mechanism. Both mechanisms are going to be modeled and assessed in detail with a finite element based dual permeability Darcy-Richards numerical solution. In that manner, it is possible to assess different sensing configurations with different loading scenarios (e.g. High water levels, rainfall events and initial soil moisture and permeability conditions). The results obtained for the different configurations are later evaluated based on an entropy based performance evaluation. The added value of this kind of modelling approach for the sensor development is that it allows to simultaneously model the piping erosion and macro-stability failure mechanisms in a time dependent manner. In that way, the estimated pore pressures may be related to the monitored one and to both failure mechanisms. Furthermore, the approach is intended to be used in a later stage for the real time monitoring of the failure.

Enhancing the Possibility of Success by Measuring the Probability of Failure in an Educational Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brookhart, Susan M.; And Others

1997-01-01

Process Analysis is described as a method for identifying and measuring the probability of events that could cause the failure of a program, resulting in a cause-and-effect tree structure of events. The method is illustrated through the evaluation of a pilot instructional program at an elementary school. (SLD)

The Influence of Improper Sets of Information on Judgment: How Irrelevant Information Can Bias Judged Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dougherty, Michael R.; Sprenger, Amber

2006-01-01

This article introduces 2 new sources of bias in probability judgment, discrimination failure and inhibition failure, which are conceptualized as arising from an interaction between error prone memory processes and a support theory like comparison process. Both sources of bias stem from the influence of irrelevant information on participants'…

A detailed description of the sequential probability ratio test for 2-IMU FDI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, T. M.

1976-01-01

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) for 2-IMU FDI (inertial measuring unit failure detection/isolation) is described. The SPRT is a statistical technique for detecting and isolating soft IMU failures originally developed for the strapdown inertial reference unit. The flowchart of a subroutine incorporating the 2-IMU SPRT is included.

Optimized Vertex Method and Hybrid Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Steven A.; Krishnamurthy, T.; Mason, B. H.

2002-01-01

A method of calculating the fuzzy response of a system is presented. This method, called the Optimized Vertex Method (OVM), is based upon the vertex method but requires considerably fewer function evaluations. The method is demonstrated by calculating the response membership function of strain-energy release rate for a bonded joint with a crack. The possibility of failure of the bonded joint was determined over a range of loads. After completing the possibilistic analysis, the possibilistic (fuzzy) membership functions were transformed to probability density functions and the probability of failure of the bonded joint was calculated. This approach is called a possibility-based hybrid reliability assessment. The possibility and probability of failure are presented and compared to a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the bonded joint.

The application of probabilistic fracture analysis to residual life evaluation of embrittled reactor vessels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickson, T.L.; Simonen, F.A.

1992-05-01

Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis is a major element of comprehensive probabilistic methodology on which current NRC regulatory requirements for pressurized water reactor vessel integrity evaluation are based. Computer codes such as OCA-P and VISA-II perform probabilistic fracture analyses to estimate the increase in vessel failure probability that occurs as the vessel material accumulates radiation damage over the operating life of the vessel. The results of such analyses, when compared with limits of acceptable failure probabilities, provide an estimation of the residual life of a vessel. Such codes can be applied to evaluate the potential benefits of plant-specific mitigating actions designedmore » to reduce the probability of failure of a reactor vessel. 10 refs.« less

The application of probabilistic fracture analysis to residual life evaluation of embrittled reactor vessels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickson, T.L.; Simonen, F.A.

1992-01-01

Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis is a major element of comprehensive probabilistic methodology on which current NRC regulatory requirements for pressurized water reactor vessel integrity evaluation are based. Computer codes such as OCA-P and VISA-II perform probabilistic fracture analyses to estimate the increase in vessel failure probability that occurs as the vessel material accumulates radiation damage over the operating life of the vessel. The results of such analyses, when compared with limits of acceptable failure probabilities, provide an estimation of the residual life of a vessel. Such codes can be applied to evaluate the potential benefits of plant-specific mitigating actions designedmore » to reduce the probability of failure of a reactor vessel. 10 refs.« less

Probabilistic evaluation of seismic isolation effect with respect to siting of a fusion reactor facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takeda, Masatoshi; Komura, Toshiyuki; Hirotani, Tsutomu

1995-12-01

Annual failure probabilities of buildings and equipment were roughly evaluated for two fusion-reactor-like buildings, with and without seismic base isolation, in order to examine the effectiveness of the base isolation system regarding siting issues. The probabilities are calculated considering nonlinearity and rupture of isolators. While the probability of building failure for both buildings on the same site was almost equal, the function failures for equipment showed that the base-isolated building had higher reliability than the non-isolated building. Even if the base-isolated building alone is located on a higher seismic hazard area, it could compete favorably with the ordinary one inmore » reliability of equipment.« less

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2013-01-01

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

An Automated Inner Dimensional Measurement System Based on a Laser Displacement Sensor for Long-Stepped Pipes

PubMed Central

Zhang, Fumin; Qu, Xinghua; Ouyang, Jianfei

2012-01-01

A novel measurement prototype based on a mobile vehicle that carries a laser scanning sensor is proposed. The prototype is intended for the automated measurement of the interior 3D geometry of large-diameter long-stepped pipes. The laser displacement sensor, which has a small measurement range, is mounted on an extended arm of known length. It is scanned to improve the measurement accuracy for large-sized pipes. A fixing mechanism based on two sections is designed to ensure that the stepped pipe is concentric with the axis of rotation of the system. Data are acquired in a cylindrical coordinate system and fitted in a circle to determine diameter. Systematic errors covering arm length, tilt, and offset errors are analyzed and calibrated. The proposed system is applied to sample parts and the results are discussed to verify its effectiveness. This technique measures a diameter of 600 mm with an uncertainty of 0.02 mm at a 95% confidence probability. A repeatability test is performed to examine precision, which is 1.1 μm. A laser tracker is used to verify the measurement accuracy of the system, which is evaluated as 9 μm within a diameter of 600 mm. PMID:22778615

Advanced Metalworking Solutions for Naval Systems That Go in Harm’s Way

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

and stress corrosion cracking failures; unique processes using compacted titanium powders that are subsequently flowformed into piping, thereby...damping characteristics, adhesion strengths in peel and shock, toxicity, flame retardancy and others. Alternate cladding techniques are being...which produces a high-quality clad overlay but at a low deposition rate relative to other cladding processes. NMC and the project team will

Evaluation of design parameters for TRISO-coated fuel particles to establish manufacturing critical limits using PARFUME

DOE PAGES

Skerjanc, William F.; Maki, John T.; Collin, Blaise P.; ...

2015-12-02

The success of modular high temperature gas-cooled reactors is highly dependent on the performance of the tristructural-isotopic (TRISO) coated fuel particle and the quality to which it can be manufactured. During irradiation, TRISO-coated fuel particles act as a pressure vessel to contain fission gas and mitigate the diffusion of fission products to the coolant boundary. The fuel specifications place limits on key attributes to minimize fuel particle failure under irradiation and postulated accident conditions. PARFUME (an integrated mechanistic coated particle fuel performance code developed at the Idaho National Laboratory) was used to calculate fuel particle failure probabilities. By systematically varyingmore » key TRISO-coated particle attributes, failure probability functions were developed to understand how each attribute contributes to fuel particle failure. Critical manufacturing limits were calculated for the key attributes of a low enriched TRISO-coated nuclear fuel particle with a kernel diameter of 425 μm. As a result, these critical manufacturing limits identify ranges beyond where an increase in fuel particle failure probability is expected to occur.« less

Estimation of the risk of failure for an endodontically treated maxillary premolar with MODP preparation and CAD/CAM ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Li; Chang, Yen-Hsiang; Pa, Che-An

2009-10-01

This study evaluated the risk of failure for an endodontically treated premolar with mesio occlusodistal palatal (MODP) preparation and 3 different computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) ceramic restoration configurations. Three 3-dimensional finite element (FE) models designed with CAD/CAM ceramic onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations were constructed to perform simulations. The Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long-term failure probability relative to different load conditions. The results indicated that the stress values on the enamel, dentin, and luting cement for endocrown restoration were the lowest values relative to the other 2 restorations. Weibull analysis revealed that the individual failure probability in the endocrown enamel, dentin, and luting cement obviously diminished more than those for onlay and conventional crown restorations. The overall failure probabilities were 27.5%, 1%, and 1% for onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations, respectively, in normal occlusal condition. This numeric investigation suggests that endocrown and conventional crown restorations for endodontically treated premolars with MODP preparation present similar longevity.

77 FR 28626 - Biweekly Notice, Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-15

... Water System, the Auxiliary Building Filtered Ventilation Exhaust System, or the Diesel Generators... nuclear service water system (NSWS) for a time period of 14 days. Basis for proposed no significant... the diesel generator buildings in the event of a leak or a break in the system piping. The probability...

Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana Kelly; Song-Hua Shen; Gary DeMoss

2010-06-01

Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the event’s risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components aremore » assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.« less

Resilience-based optimal design of water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suribabu, C. R.

2017-11-01

Optimal design of water distribution network is generally aimed to minimize the capital cost of the investments on tanks, pipes, pumps, and other appurtenances. Minimizing the cost of pipes is usually considered as a prime objective as its proportion in capital cost of the water distribution system project is very high. However, minimizing the capital cost of the pipeline alone may result in economical network configuration, but it may not be a promising solution in terms of resilience point of view. Resilience of the water distribution network has been considered as one of the popular surrogate measures to address ability of network to withstand failure scenarios. To improve the resiliency of the network, the pipe network optimization can be performed with two objectives, namely minimizing the capital cost as first objective and maximizing resilience measure of the configuration as secondary objective. In the present work, these two objectives are combined as single objective and optimization problem is solved by differential evolution technique. The paper illustrates the procedure for normalizing the objective functions having distinct metrics. Two of the existing resilience indices and power efficiency are considered for optimal design of water distribution network. The proposed normalized objective function is found to be efficient under weighted method of handling multi-objective water distribution design problem. The numerical results of the design indicate the importance of sizing pipe telescopically along shortest path of flow to have enhanced resiliency indices.

OTEC cold water pipe design for problems caused by vortex-excited oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griffin, O. M.

1980-03-14

Vortex-excited oscillations of marine structures result in reduced fatigue life, large hydrodynamic forces and induced stresses, and sometimes lead to structural damage and to diestructive failures. The cold water pipe of an OTEC plant is nominally a bluff, flexible cylinder with a large aspect ratio (L/D = length/diameter), and is likely to be susceptible to resonant vortex-excited oscillations. The objective of this report is to survey recent results pertaining to the vortex-excited oscillations of structures in general and to consider the application of these findings to the design of the OTEC cold water pipe. Practical design calculations are given asmore » examples throughout the various sections of the report. This report is limited in scope to the problems of vortex shedding from bluff, flexible structures in steady currents and the resulting vortex-excited oscillations. The effects of flow non-uniformities, surface roughness of the cylinder, and inclination to the incident flow are considered in addition to the case of a smooth cyliner in a uniform stream. Emphasis is placed upon design procedures, hydrodynamic coefficients applicable in practice, and the specification of structural response parameters relevant to the OTEC cold water pipe. There are important problems associated with in shedding of vortices from cylinders in waves and from the combined action of waves and currents, but these complex fluid/structure interactions are not considered in this report.« less

Micro-Textured Black Silicon Wick for Silicon Heat Pipe Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, Karl Y.; Sunada, Eric T.; Ganapathi, Gani B.; Manohara, Harish; Homyk, Andrew; Prina, Mauro

2013-01-01

Planar, semiconductor heat arrays have been previously proposed and developed; however, this design makes use of a novel, microscale black silicon wick structure that provides increased capillary pumping pressure of the internal working fluid, resulting in increased effective thermal conductivity of the device, and also enables operation of the device in any orientation with respect to the gravity vector. In a heat pipe, the efficiency of thermal transfer from the case to the working fluid is directly proportional to the surface area of the wick in contact with the fluid. Also, the primary failure mechanism for heat pipes operating within the temperature range of interest is inadequate capillary pressure for the return of fluid from the condenser to the wick. This is also what makes the operation of heat pipes orientation-sensitive. Thus, the two primary requirements for a good wick design are a large surface area and high capillary pressure. Surface area can be maximized through nanomachined surface roughening. Capillary pressure is largely driven by the working fluid and wick structure. The proposed nanostructure wick has characteristic dimensions on the order of tens of microns, which promotes menisci of very small radii. This results in the possibility of enormous pumping potential due to the inverse proportionality with radius. Wetting, which also enhances capillary pumping, can be maximized through growth of an oxide layer or material deposition (e.g. TiO2) to create a superhydrophilic surface.

Fatigue life calculation of desuperheater for solving pipe cracking issue using finite element method (FEM) software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Aravinda; Singh, Jeetendra Kumar; Mohan, K.

2012-06-01

Desuperheater assembly experiences thermal cycling in operation by design. During power plant's start up, load change and shut down, thermal gradient is highest. Desuperheater should be able to handle rapid ramp up or ramp down of temperature in these operations. With "hump style" two nozzle desuperheater, cracks were appearing in the pipe after only few cycles of operation. From the field data, it was clear that desuperheater is not able to handle disproportionate thermal expansion happening in the assembly during temperature ramp up and ramp down in operation and leading to cracks appearing in the piping. Growth of thermal fatigue crack is influenced by several factors including geometry, severity of thermal stress and applied mechanical load. This paper seeks to determine cause of failure of two nozzle "hump style" desuperheater using Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation technique. Thermal stress simulation and fatigue life calculation were performed using commercial FEA software "ANSYS" [from Ansys Inc, USA]. Simulation result showed that very high thermal stress is developing in the region where cracks are seen in the field. From simulation results, it is also clear that variable thermal expansion of two nozzle studs is creating high stress at the water manifold junction. A simple and viable solution is suggested by increasing the length of the manifold which solved the cracking issues in the pipe.

Cyber-Physical Correlations for Infrastructure Resilience: A Game-Theoretic Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; He, Fei; Ma, Chris Y. T.

In several critical infrastructures, the cyber and physical parts are correlated so that disruptions to one affect the other and hence the whole system. These correlations may be exploited to strategically launch components attacks, and hence must be accounted for ensuring the infrastructure resilience, specified by its survival probability. We characterize the cyber-physical interactions at two levels: (i) the failure correlation function specifies the conditional survival probability of cyber sub-infrastructure given the physical sub-infrastructure as a function of their marginal probabilities, and (ii) the individual survival probabilities of both sub-infrastructures are characterized by first-order differential conditions. We formulate a resiliencemore » problem for infrastructures composed of discrete components as a game between the provider and attacker, wherein their utility functions consist of an infrastructure survival probability term and a cost term expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions and sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost term, correlation function and sub-infrastructure survival probabilities. These results generalize earlier ones based on linear failure correlation functions and independent component failures. We apply the results to models of cloud computing infrastructures and energy grids.« less

Structural Reliability Analysis and Optimization: Use of Approximations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grandhi, Ramana V.; Wang, Liping

1999-01-01

This report is intended for the demonstration of function approximation concepts and their applicability in reliability analysis and design. Particularly, approximations in the calculation of the safety index, failure probability and structural optimization (modification of design variables) are developed. With this scope in mind, extensive details on probability theory are avoided. Definitions relevant to the stated objectives have been taken from standard text books. The idea of function approximations is to minimize the repetitive use of computationally intensive calculations by replacing them with simpler closed-form equations, which could be nonlinear. Typically, the approximations provide good accuracy around the points where they are constructed, and they need to be periodically updated to extend their utility. There are approximations in calculating the failure probability of a limit state function. The first one, which is most commonly discussed, is how the limit state is approximated at the design point. Most of the time this could be a first-order Taylor series expansion, also known as the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), or a second-order Taylor series expansion (paraboloid), also known as the Second Order Reliability Method (SORM). From the computational procedure point of view, this step comes after the design point identification; however, the order of approximation for the probability of failure calculation is discussed first, and it is denoted by either FORM or SORM. The other approximation of interest is how the design point, or the most probable failure point (MPP), is identified. For iteratively finding this point, again the limit state is approximated. The accuracy and efficiency of the approximations make the search process quite practical for analysis intensive approaches such as the finite element methods; therefore, the crux of this research is to develop excellent approximations for MPP identification and also different approximations including the higher-order reliability methods (HORM) for representing the failure surface. This report is divided into several parts to emphasize different segments of the structural reliability analysis and design. Broadly, it consists of mathematical foundations, methods and applications. Chapter I discusses the fundamental definitions of the probability theory, which are mostly available in standard text books. Probability density function descriptions relevant to this work are addressed. In Chapter 2, the concept and utility of function approximation are discussed for a general application in engineering analysis. Various forms of function representations and the latest developments in nonlinear adaptive approximations are presented with comparison studies. Research work accomplished in reliability analysis is presented in Chapter 3. First, the definition of safety index and most probable point of failure are introduced. Efficient ways of computing the safety index with a fewer number of iterations is emphasized. In chapter 4, the probability of failure prediction is presented using first-order, second-order and higher-order methods. System reliability methods are discussed in chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents optimization techniques for the modification and redistribution of structural sizes for improving the structural reliability. The report also contains several appendices on probability parameters.

Identification of corrosion and damage mechanisms by using scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis: contribution to failure analysis case histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantazopoulos, G.; Vazdirvanidis, A.

2014-03-01

Emphasis is placed on the evaluation of corrosion failures of copper and machineable brass alloys during service. Typical corrosion failures of the presented case histories mainly focussed on stress corrosion cracking and dezincification that acted as the major degradation mechanisms in components used in piping and water supply systems. SEM assessment, coupled with EDS spectroscopy, revealed the main cracking modes together with the root-source(s) that are responsible for the damage initiation and evolution. In addition, fracture surface observations contributed to the identification of the incurred fracture mechanisms and potential environmental issues that stimulated crack initiation and propagation. Very frequently, the detection of chlorides among the corrosion products served as a suggestive evidence of the influence of working environment on passive layer destabilisation and metal dissolution.

Stochastic damage evolution in textile laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dzenis, Yuris A.; Bogdanovich, Alexander E.; Pastore, Christopher M.

1993-01-01

A probabilistic model utilizing random material characteristics to predict damage evolution in textile laminates is presented. Model is based on a division of each ply into two sublaminas consisting of cells. The probability of cell failure is calculated using stochastic function theory and maximal strain failure criterion. Three modes of failure, i.e. fiber breakage, matrix failure in transverse direction, as well as matrix or interface shear cracking, are taken into account. Computed failure probabilities are utilized in reducing cell stiffness based on the mesovolume concept. A numerical algorithm is developed predicting the damage evolution and deformation history of textile laminates. Effect of scatter of fiber orientation on cell properties is discussed. Weave influence on damage accumulation is illustrated with the help of an example of a Kevlar/epoxy laminate.

Differential reliability : probabilistic engineering applied to wood members in bending-tension

Treesearch

Stanley K. Suddarth; Frank E. Woeste; William L. Galligan

1978-01-01

Reliability analysis is a mathematical technique for appraising the design and materials of engineered structures to provide a quantitative estimate of probability of failure. Two or more cases which are similar in all respects but one may be analyzed by this method; the contrast between the probabilities of failure for these cases allows strong analytical focus on the...

Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

PubMed Central

Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

2016-01-01

Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

Closed-form solution of decomposable stochastic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sjogren, Jon A.

1990-01-01

Markov and semi-Markov processes are increasingly being used in the modeling of complex reconfigurable systems (fault tolerant computers). The estimation of the reliability (or some measure of performance) of the system reduces to solving the process for its state probabilities. Such a model may exhibit numerous states and complicated transition distributions, contributing to an expensive and numerically delicate solution procedure. Thus, when a system exhibits a decomposition property, either structurally (autonomous subsystems), or behaviorally (component failure versus reconfiguration), it is desirable to exploit this decomposition in the reliability calculation. In interesting cases there can be failure states which arise from non-failure states of the subsystems. Equations are presented which allow the computation of failure probabilities of the total (combined) model without requiring a complete solution of the combined model. This material is presented within the context of closed-form functional representation of probabilities as utilized in the Symbolic Hierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator (SHARPE) tool. The techniques adopted enable one to compute such probability functions for a much wider class of systems at a reduced computational cost. Several examples show how the method is used, especially in enhancing the versatility of the SHARPE tool.

Disparity between online and offline tests in accelerated aging tests of LED lamps under electric stress.

PubMed

Wang, Yao; Jing, Lei; Ke, Hong-Liang; Hao, Jian; Gao, Qun; Wang, Xiao-Xun; Sun, Qiang; Xu, Zhi-Jun

2016-09-20

The accelerated aging tests under electric stress for one type of LED lamp are conducted, and the differences between online and offline tests of the degradation of luminous flux are studied in this paper. The transformation of the two test modes is achieved with an adjustable AC voltage stabilized power source. Experimental results show that the exponential fitting of the luminous flux degradation in online tests possesses a higher fitting degree for most lamps, and the degradation rate of the luminous flux by online tests is always lower than that by offline tests. Bayes estimation and Weibull distribution are used to calculate the failure probabilities under the accelerated voltages, and then the reliability of the lamps under rated voltage of 220 V is estimated by use of the inverse power law model. Results show that the relative error of the lifetime estimation by offline tests increases as the failure probability decreases, and it cannot be neglected when the failure probability is less than 1%. The relative errors of lifetime estimation are 7.9%, 5.8%, 4.2%, and 3.5%, at the failure probabilities of 0.1%, 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan; Lin, Guang

In decision-making for groundwater management and contamination remediation, it is important to accurately evaluate the probability of the occurrence of a failure event. For small failure probability analysis, a large number of model evaluations are needed in the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, which is impractical for CPU-demanding models. One approach to alleviate the computational cost caused by the model evaluations is to construct a computationally inexpensive surrogate model instead. However, using a surrogate approximation can cause an extra error in the failure probability analysis. Moreover, constructing accurate surrogates is challenging for high-dimensional models, i.e., models containing many uncertain input parameters.more » To address these issues, we propose an efficient two-stage MC approach for small failure probability analysis in high-dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling. In the first stage, a low-dimensional representation of the original high-dimensional model is sought with Karhunen–Loève expansion and sliced inverse regression jointly, which allows for the easy construction of a surrogate with polynomial chaos expansion. Then a surrogate-based MC simulation is implemented. In the second stage, the small number of samples that are close to the failure boundary are re-evaluated with the original model, which corrects the bias introduced by the surrogate approximation. The proposed approach is tested with a numerical case study and is shown to be 100 times faster than the traditional MC approach in achieving the same level of estimation accuracy.« less

Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series.

PubMed

Thorndahl, S; Willems, P

2008-01-01

Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the first-order reliability method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rainstorms (rain events), and each rainstorm conceptualized to a synthetic rainfall hyetograph by a Gaussian shape with the parameters rainstorm depth, duration and peak intensity. Probability distributions were calibrated for these three parameters and used on the basis of the failure probability estimation, together with a hydrodynamic simulation model to determine the failure conditions for each set of parameters. The method takes into account the uncertainties involved in the rainstorm parameterization. Comparison is made between the failure probability results of the FORM method, the standard method using long-term simulations and alternative methods based on random sampling (Monte Carlo direct sampling and importance sampling). It is concluded that without crucial influence on the modelling accuracy, the FORM is very applicable as an alternative to traditional long-term simulations of urban drainage systems.

The additive value of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide testing at the emergency department in patients with acute dyspnoea.

PubMed

van der Burg-de Graauw, N; Cobbaert, C M; Middelhoff, C J F M; Bantje, T A; van Guldener, C

2009-05-01

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and its inactive counterpart NT-proBNP can help to identify or rule out heart failure in patients presenting with acute dyspnoea. It is not well known whether measurement of these peptides can be omitted in certain patient groups. We conducted a prospective observational study of 221 patients presenting with acute dyspnoea at the emergency department. The attending physicians estimated the probability of heart failure by clinical judgement. NT-proBNP was measured, but not reported. An independent panel made a final diagnosis of all available data including NT-proBNP level and judged whether and how NT-proBNP would have altered patient management. NT-proBNP levels were highest in patients with heart failure, alone or in combination with pulmonary failure. Additive value of NT-proBNP was present in 40 of 221 (18%) of the patients, and it mostly indicated that a more intensive treatment for heart failure would have been needed. Clinical judgement was an independent predictor of additive value of NT-proBNP with a maximum at a clinical probability of heart failure of 36%. NT-proBNP measurement has additive value in a substantial number of patients presenting with acute dyspnoea, but can possibly be omitted in patients with a clinical probability of heart failure of >70%.

Reliability-based management of buried pipelines considering external corrosion defects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miran, Seyedeh Azadeh

Corrosion is one of the main deteriorating mechanisms that degrade the energy pipeline integrity, due to transferring corrosive fluid or gas and interacting with corrosive environment. Corrosion defects are usually detected by periodical inspections using in-line inspection (ILI) methods. In order to ensure pipeline safety, this study develops a cost-effective maintenance strategy that consists of three aspects: corrosion growth model development using ILI data, time-dependent performance evaluation, and optimal inspection interval determination. In particular, the proposed study is applied to a cathodic protected buried steel pipeline located in Mexico. First, time-dependent power-law formulation is adopted to probabilistically characterize growth of the maximum depth and length of the external corrosion defects. Dependency between defect depth and length are considered in the model development and generation of the corrosion defects over time is characterized by the homogenous Poisson process. The growth models unknown parameters are evaluated based on the ILI data through the Bayesian updating method with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique. The proposed corrosion growth models can be used when either matched or non-matched defects are available, and have ability to consider newly generated defects since last inspection. Results of this part of study show that both depth and length growth models can predict damage quantities reasonably well and a strong correlation between defect depth and length is found. Next, time-dependent system failure probabilities are evaluated using developed corrosion growth models considering prevailing uncertainties where three failure modes, namely small leak, large leak and rupture are considered. Performance of the pipeline is evaluated through failure probability per km (or called a sub-system) where each subsystem is considered as a series system of detected and newly generated defects within that sub-system. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to determine to which incorporated parameter(s) in the growth models reliability of the studied pipeline is most sensitive. The reliability analysis results suggest that newly generated defects should be considered in calculating failure probability, especially for prediction of long-term performance of the pipeline and also, impact of the statistical uncertainty in the model parameters is significant that should be considered in the reliability analysis. Finally, with the evaluated time-dependent failure probabilities, a life cycle-cost analysis is conducted to determine optimal inspection interval of studied pipeline. The expected total life-cycle costs consists construction cost and expected costs of inspections, repair, and failure. The repair is conducted when failure probability from any described failure mode exceeds pre-defined probability threshold after each inspection. Moreover, this study also investigates impact of repair threshold values and unit costs of inspection and failure on the expected total life-cycle cost and optimal inspection interval through a parametric study. The analysis suggests that a smaller inspection interval leads to higher inspection costs, but can lower failure cost and also repair cost is less significant compared to inspection and failure costs.

Effects of Stress Ratio and Microstructure on Fatigue Failure Behavior of Polycrystalline Nickel Superalloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Guan, Z. W.; Wang, Q. Y.; Liu, Y. J.; Li, J. K.

2018-05-01

The effects of microstructure and stress ratio on high cycle fatigue of nickel superalloy Nimonic 80A were investigated. The stress ratios of 0.1, 0.5 and 0.8 were chosen to perform fatigue tests in a frequency of 110 Hz. Cleavage failure was observed, and three competing failure crack initiation modes were discovered by a scanning electron microscope, which were classified as surface without facets, surface with facets and subsurface with facets. With increasing the stress ratio from 0.1 to 0.8, the occurrence probability of surface and subsurface with facets also increased and reached the maximum value at R = 0.5, meanwhile the probability of surface initiation without facets decreased. The effect of microstructure on the fatigue fracture behavior at different stress ratios was also observed and discussed. Based on the Goodman diagram, it was concluded that the fatigue strength of 50% probability of failure at R = 0.1, 0.5 and 0.8 is lower than the modified Goodman line.

Deviation from Power Law Behavior in Landslide Phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Lan, H.; Wu, Y.

2013-12-01

Power law distribution of magnitude is widely observed in many natural hazards (e.g., earthquake, floods, tornadoes, and forest fires). Landslide is unique as the size distribution of landslide is characterized by a power law decrease with a rollover in the small size end. Yet, the emergence of the rollover, i.e., the deviation from power law behavior for small size landslides, remains a mystery. In this contribution, we grouped the forces applied on landslide bodies into two categories: 1) the forces proportional to the volume of failure mass (gravity and friction), and 2) the forces proportional to the area of failure surface (cohesion). Failure occurs when the forces proportional to volume exceed the forces proportional to surface area. As such, given a certain mechanical configuration, the failure volume to failure surface area ratio must exceed a corresponding threshold to guarantee a failure. Assuming all landslides share a uniform shape, which means the volume to surface area ratio of landslide regularly increase with the landslide volume, a cutoff of landslide volume distribution in the small size end can be defined. However, in realistic landslide phenomena, where heterogeneities of landslide shape and mechanical configuration are existent, a simple cutoff of landslide volume distribution does not exist. The stochasticity of landslide shape introduce a probability distribution of the volume to surface area ratio with regard to landslide volume, with which the probability that the volume to surface ratio exceed the threshold can be estimated regarding values of landslide volume. An experiment based on empirical data showed that this probability can induce the power law distribution of landslide volume roll down in the small size end. We therefore proposed that the constraints on the failure volume to failure surface area ratio together with the heterogeneity of landslide geometry and mechanical configuration attribute for the deviation from power law behavior in landslide phenomenon. Figure shows that a rollover of landslide size distribution in the small size end is produced as the probability for V/S (the failure volume to failure surface ratio of landslide) exceeding the mechanical threshold applied to the power law distribution of landslide volume.

POF-Darts: Geometric adaptive sampling for probability of failure

DOE PAGES

Ebeida, Mohamed S.; Mitchell, Scott A.; Swiler, Laura P.; ...

2016-06-18

We introduce a novel technique, POF-Darts, to estimate the Probability Of Failure based on random disk-packing in the uncertain parameter space. POF-Darts uses hyperplane sampling to explore the unexplored part of the uncertain space. We use the function evaluation at a sample point to determine whether it belongs to failure or non-failure regions, and surround it with a protection sphere region to avoid clustering. We decompose the domain into Voronoi cells around the function evaluations as seeds and choose the radius of the protection sphere depending on the local Lipschitz continuity. As sampling proceeds, regions uncovered with spheres will shrink,more » improving the estimation accuracy. After exhausting the function evaluation budget, we build a surrogate model using the function evaluations associated with the sample points and estimate the probability of failure by exhaustive sampling of that surrogate. In comparison to other similar methods, our algorithm has the advantages of decoupling the sampling step from the surrogate construction one, the ability to reach target POF values with fewer samples, and the capability of estimating the number and locations of disconnected failure regions, not just the POF value. Furthermore, we present various examples to demonstrate the efficiency of our novel approach.« less

Diverse Redundant Systems for Reliable Space Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2015-01-01

Reliable life support systems are required for deep space missions. The probability of a fatal life support failure should be less than one in a thousand in a multi-year mission. It is far too expensive to develop a single system with such high reliability. Using three redundant units would require only that each have a failure probability of one in ten over the mission. Since the system development cost is inverse to the failure probability, this would cut cost by a factor of one hundred. Using replaceable subsystems instead of full systems would further cut cost. Using full sets of replaceable components improves reliability more than using complete systems as spares, since a set of components could repair many different failures instead of just one. Replaceable components would require more tools, space, and planning than full systems or replaceable subsystems. However, identical system redundancy cannot be relied on in practice. Common cause failures can disable all the identical redundant systems. Typical levels of common cause failures will defeat redundancy greater than two. Diverse redundant systems are required for reliable space life support. Three, four, or five diverse redundant systems could be needed for sufficient reliability. One system with lower level repair could be substituted for two diverse systems to save cost.

Uplifting behavior of shallow buried pipe in liquefiable soil by dynamic centrifuge test.

PubMed

Huang, Bo; Liu, Jingwen; Lin, Peng; Ling, Daosheng

2014-01-01

Underground pipelines are widely applied in the so-called lifeline engineerings. It shows according to seismic surveys that the damage from soil liquefaction to underground pipelines was the most serious, whose failures were mainly in the form of pipeline uplifting. In the present study, dynamic centrifuge model tests were conducted to study the uplifting behaviors of shallow-buried pipeline subjected to seismic vibration in liquefied sites. The uplifting mechanism was discussed through the responses of the pore water pressure and earth pressure around the pipeline. Additionally, the analysis of force, which the pipeline was subjected to before and during vibration, was introduced and proved to be reasonable by the comparison of the measured and the calculated results. The uplifting behavior of pipe is the combination effects of multiple forces, and is highly dependent on the excess pore pressure.

Effect of Thermal Shock During Legionella Bacteria Removal on the Corrosion Properties of Zinc-Coated Steel Pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlikowski, Juliusz; Ryl, Jacek; Jazdzewska, Agata; Krakowiak, Stefan

2016-07-01

The purpose of this investigation was to conduct the failure analysis of a water-supply system made from zinc-coated steel. The observed corrosion process had an intense and complex character. The brownish deposits and perforations were present after 2-3 years of exploitation. The electrochemical study based on the Tafel polarization, corrosion potential monitoring, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy together with microscopic analysis via SEM and EDX were performed in order to identify the cause of such intense corrosion. The performed measurements allowed us to determine that thermal shock was the source of polarity-reversal phenomenon. This process had begun the corrosion of steel which later led to the formation of deposits and perforations in the pipes. The work includes appropriate action in order to efficiently identify the described corrosion threat.

Rapid sonic characterisation of sewer change and obstructions.

PubMed

Podd, F J; Ali, M T B; Horoshenkov, K V; Wood, A S; Tait, S J; Boot, J C; Long, R; Saul, A J

2007-01-01

This paper reports on the development of a low-cost, rapidly deployable sensor for surveying live sewers for blockages and structural failures. The anticipated cost is an order of magnitude lower than current techniques. The technology is based on acoustic normal model decomposition, The instrument emits short coded acoustic signals which are reflected from any sewer wall defect. The acoustic signals can be short Gaussian pulses or longer sinusoidal sweeps and pseudo-random noise. The processing algorithms used on the reflected signal can predict the extent and geometry of the pipe deformation, and the locations and approximate size of common blockages. The effect of the water level on the frequency of the fundamental mode has also been investigated. It is shown that the technique can be adapted to work reliably in relatively large 600 mm diameter sewer pipes.

Mechanical performance and parameter sensitivity analysis of 3D braided composites joints.

PubMed

Wu, Yue; Nan, Bo; Chen, Liang

2014-01-01

3D braided composite joints are the important components in CFRP truss, which have significant influence on the reliability and lightweight of structures. To investigate the mechanical performance of 3D braided composite joints, a numerical method based on the microscopic mechanics is put forward, the modeling technologies, including the material constants selection, element type, grid size, and the boundary conditions, are discussed in detail. Secondly, a method for determination of ultimate bearing capacity is established, which can consider the strength failure. Finally, the effect of load parameters, geometric parameters, and process parameters on the ultimate bearing capacity of joints is analyzed by the global sensitivity analysis method. The results show that the main pipe diameter thickness ratio γ, the main pipe diameter D, and the braided angle α are sensitive to the ultimate bearing capacity N.

Composites in energy generation and storage systems - An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulmer, R. W.

Applications of glass-fiber reinforced composites (GER) in renewable and high-efficiency energy systems which are being developed to replace interim, long-term unacceptable energy sources such as foreign oil are reviewed. GFR are noted to have design flexibility, high strength, and low cost, as well as featuring a choice of fiber orientation and type of reinforcement. Blades, hub covers, nacelles, and towers for large and small WECS are being fabricated and tested and are displaying satisfactory strength, resistance to corrosion and catastrophic failure, impact tolerance, and light weight. Promising results have also been shown in the use of GFR as flywheel material for kinetic energy storage in conjunction with solar and wind electric systems, in electric cars, and as load levellers. Other applications are for heliostats, geothermal power plant pipes, dam-atoll tidal wave energy systems, and intake pipes for OTECs.

Defense strategies for asymmetric networked systems under composite utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell

We consider an infrastructure of networked systems with discrete components that can be reinforced at certain costs to guard against attacks. The communications network plays a critical, asymmetric role of providing the vital connectivity between the systems. We characterize the correlations within this infrastructure at two levels using (a) aggregate failure correlation function that specifies the infrastructure failure probability giventhe failure of an individual system or network, and (b) first order differential conditions on system survival probabilities that characterize component-level correlations. We formulate an infrastructure survival game between an attacker and a provider, who attacks and reinforces individual components, respectively.more » They use the composite utility functions composed of a survival probability term and a cost term, and the previously studiedsum-form and product-form utility functions are their special cases. At Nash Equilibrium, we derive expressions for individual system survival probabilities and the expected total number of operational components. We apply and discuss these estimates for a simplified model of distributed cloud computing infrastructure« less

Geotechnical Centrifuge Experiments to Evaluate Piping in Foundation Soils

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

verifiable results. These tests were successful in design , construction, and execution of a realistic simulation of internal erosion leading to failure...possible “scale effects,” “modeling of models” testing protocol should be included in the test program. Also, the model design should minimize the scale...recommendations for improving the centrifuge tests include the following: • Design improved system for reservoir control to provide definitive and

Eddy Current Testing with Giant Magnetoresistance (GMR) Sensors and a Pipe-Encircling Excitation for Evaluation of Corrosion under Insulation

PubMed Central

Bailey, Joseph; Hunze, Arvid

2017-01-01

This work investigates an eddy current-based non-destructive testing (NDT) method to characterize corrosion of pipes under thermal insulation, one of the leading failure mechanisms for insulated pipe infrastructure. Artificial defects were machined into the pipe surface to simulate the effect of corrosion wall loss. We show that by using a giant magnetoresistance (GMR) sensor array and a high current (300 A), single sinusoidal low frequency (5–200 Hz) pipe-encircling excitation scheme it is possible to quantify wall loss defects without removing the insulation or weather shield. An analysis of the magnetic field distribution and induced currents was undertaken using the finite element method (FEM) and analytical calculations. Simple algorithms to remove spurious measured field variations not associated with defects were developed and applied. The influence of an aluminium weather shield with discontinuities and dents was ascertained and found to be small for excitation frequency values below 40 Hz. The signal dependence on the defect dimensions was analysed in detail. The excitation frequency at which the maximum field amplitude change occurred increased linearly with the depth of the defect by about 3 Hz/mm defect depth. The change in magnetic field amplitude due to defects for sensors aligned in the azimuthal and radial directions were measured and found to be linearly dependent on the defect volume between 4400–30,800 mm3 with 1.2 × 10−3−1.6 × 10−3 µT/mm3. The results show that our approach is well suited for measuring wall loss defects similar to the defects from corrosion under insulation. PMID:28956855

Structural Dynamic Assessment of the GN2 Piping System for NASA's New and Powerful Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNelis, Mark E.; Staab, Lucas D.; Akers, James C.; Hughes, William O.; Chang, Li C.; Hozman, Aron D.; Henry, Michael W.

2012-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) has led the design and build of the new world-class vibroacoustic test capabilities at the NASA GRC's Plum Brook Station in Sandusky, Ohio, USA from 2007 to 2011. SAIC-Benham has completed construction of a new reverberant acoustic test facility to support the future testing needs of NASA's space exploration program and commercial customers. The large Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility (RATF) is approximately 101,000 cubic feet in volume and was designed to operate at a maximum empty chamber acoustic overall sound pressure level (OASPL) of 163 dB. This combination of size and acoustic power is unprecedented amongst the world s known active reverberant acoustic test facilities. Initial checkout acoustic testing was performed on March 2011 by SAIC-Benham at test levels up to 161 dB OASPL. During testing, several branches of the gaseous nitrogen (GN2) piping system, which supply the fluid to the noise generating acoustic modulators, failed at their T-junctions connecting the 12 in. supply line to their respective 4 in. branch lines. The problem was initially detected when the oxygen sensors in the horn room indicated a lower than expected oxygen level from which was inferred GN2 leaks in the piping system. In subsequent follow up inspections, cracks were identified in the failed T-junction connections through non-destructive evaluation testing. Through structural dynamic modeling of the piping system, the root cause of the T-junction connection failures was determined. The structural dynamic assessment identified several possible corrective design improvements to the horn room piping system. The effectiveness of the chosen design repairs were subsequently evaluated in September 2011 during acoustic verification testing to 161 dB OASPL.

Structural Dynamic Assessment of the GN2 Piping System for NASA's New and Powerful Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNelis, Mark E.; Staab, Lucas D.; Akers, James C.; Hughes, WIlliam O.; Chang, Li, C.; Hozman, Aron D.; Henry, Michael W.

2012-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) has led the design and build of the new world-class vibroacoustic test capabilities at the NASA GRC's Plum Brook Station in Sandusky, Ohio, USA from 2007-2011. SAIC-Benham has completed construction of a new reverberant acoustic test facility to support the future testing needs of NASA's space exploration program and commercial customers. The large Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility (RATF) is approximately 101,000 cu ft in volume and was designed to operate at a maximum empty chamber acoustic overall sound pressure level (OASPL) of 163 dB. This combination of size and acoustic power is unprecedented amongst the world's known active reverberant acoustic test facilities. Initial checkout acoustic testing was performed on March 2011 by SAIC-Benham at test levels up to 161 dB OASPL. During testing, several branches of the gaseous nitrogen (GN2) piping system, which supply the fluid to the noise generating acoustic modulators, failed at their "t-junctions" connecting the 12 inch supply line to their respective 4 inch branch lines. The problem was initially detected when the oxygen sensors in the horn room indicated a lower than expected oxygen level from which was inferred GN2 leaks in the piping system. In subsequent follow up inspections, cracks were identified in the failed "t-junction" connections through non-destructive evaluation testing . Through structural dynamic modeling of the piping system, the root cause of the "t-junction" connection failures was determined. The structural dynamic assessment identified several possible corrective design improvements to the horn room piping system. The effectiveness of the chosen design repairs were subsequently evaluated in September 2011 during acoustic verification testing to 161 dB OASPL.

Eddy Current Testing with Giant Magnetoresistance (GMR) Sensors and a Pipe-Encircling Excitation for Evaluation of Corrosion under Insulation.

PubMed

Bailey, Joseph; Long, Nicholas; Hunze, Arvid

2017-09-28

This work investigates an eddy current-based non-destructive testing (NDT) method to characterize corrosion of pipes under thermal insulation, one of the leading failure mechanisms for insulated pipe infrastructure. Artificial defects were machined into the pipe surface to simulate the effect of corrosion wall loss. We show that by using a giant magnetoresistance (GMR) sensor array and a high current (300 A), single sinusoidal low frequency (5-200 Hz) pipe-encircling excitation scheme it is possible to quantify wall loss defects without removing the insulation or weather shield. An analysis of the magnetic field distribution and induced currents was undertaken using the finite element method (FEM) and analytical calculations. Simple algorithms to remove spurious measured field variations not associated with defects were developed and applied. The influence of an aluminium weather shield with discontinuities and dents was ascertained and found to be small for excitation frequency values below 40 Hz. The signal dependence on the defect dimensions was analysed in detail. The excitation frequency at which the maximum field amplitude change occurred increased linearly with the depth of the defect by about 3 Hz/mm defect depth. The change in magnetic field amplitude due to defects for sensors aligned in the azimuthal and radial directions were measured and found to be linearly dependent on the defect volume between 4400-30,800 mm³ with 1.2 × 10 -3 -1.6 × 10 -3 µT/mm³. The results show that our approach is well suited for measuring wall loss defects similar to the defects from corrosion under insulation.

Weathering effects on tensile and stress rupture strength of glass fiber reinforced vinylester and epoxy thermoset pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nizamuddin, Syed

Glass fiber reinforced vinylester (GFRE) and epoxy (GFRE) pipes have been used for more than three decades to mitigate corrosion problems in oil fields, chemical and industrial plants. In these services, both GFRV and GFRE pipes are exposed to various environmental conditions. Long-term mechanical durability of these pipes after exposure to environmental conditions, which include natural weathering exposure to seasonal temperature variation, sea water, humidity and other corrosive fluids like crude oil, should be well known. Although extensive research has been undertaken, several major issues pertaining to the performance of these pipes under a number of environmental conditions still remain unresolved. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of natural weathering, combined natural weathering with seawater and crude oil exposure, for time periods ranging from 3 to 36 months respectively, on the tensile and stress rupture behavior of GFRV and GFRE pipes. Ring specimens are machined from GFRV and GFRE pipes and tested before and after exposure to different weathering conditions prevalent in the eastern region (Dhahran) of Saudi Arabia and present under service conditions. The natural weathering and combined natural weathering with crude oil exposure of GFRV specimens revealed increased tensile strength even after 36 months of exposure when compared with that of the as received samples. However, the combined natural weathering with seawater exposure of GFRV samples revealed better tensile behavior till 24 months of exposure, and after 36 months their tensile strength was seen to be below that of the as received GFRV samples. The stress rupture behavior of natural weather exposed GFRV samples showed an improvement after 12 months of exposure and it decreased after 24 and 36 months of exposure when compared with the as received GFRV samples. The combined natural weathering with crude oil and seawater exposure of GFRV sample revealed improved stress rupture behavior after 12 months of exposure. The as received GFRE pipe specimens revealed higher average tensile strength when compared to the as received GFRV sample, whereas the stress rupture behavior was comparatively low. The seawater exposure of the GFRE specimens resulted in drastic reduction in both tensile and stress rupture properties. Fractographic analysis was performed using an optical microscope and SEM in order to explain the possible controlling mechanisms of failure.

Compendium of Abstracts on Statistical Applications in Geotechnical Engineering.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

research in the application of probabilistic and statistical methods to soil mechanics, rock mechanics, and engineering geology problems have grown markedly...probability, statistics, soil mechanics, rock mechanics, and engineering geology. 2. The purpose of this report is to make available to the U. S...Deformation Dynamic Response Analysis Seepage, Soil Permeability and Piping Earthquake Engineering, Seismology, Settlement and Heave Seismic Risk Analysis

Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

1993-01-01

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, R. A.; Datta, T. K.; Ahmad, S.

2005-06-01

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges using Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) procedure is presented for determining their failure probability under random ground motion. Seismic input to the bridge support is considered to be a risk consistent response spectrum which is obtained from a separate analysis. For the response analysis, the bridge deck is modeles as a beam supported on spring at different points. The stiffnesses of the springs are determined by a separate 2D static analysis of cable-tower-deck system. The analysis provides a coupled stiffness matrix for the spring system. A continuum method of analysis using dynamic stiffness is used to determine the dynamic properties of the bridges. The response of the bridge deck is obtained by the response spectrum method of analysis as applied to multidegree of freedom system which duly takes into account the quasi-static component of bridge deck vibration. The fragility analysis includes uncertainties arising due to the variation in ground motion, material property, modeling, method of analysis, ductility factor and damage concentration effect. Probability of failure of the bridge deck is determined by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method of reliability. A three span double plane symmetrical fan type cable stayed bridge of total span 689 m, is used as an illustrative example. The fragility curves for the bridge deck failure are obtained under a number of parametric variations. Some of the important conclusions of the study indicate that (i) not only vertical component but also the horizontal component of ground motion has considerable effect on the probability of failure; (ii) ground motion with no time lag between support excitations provides a smaller probability of failure as compared to ground motion with very large time lag between support excitation; and (iii) probability of failure may considerably increase soft soil condition.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

A global analysis approach for investigating structural resilience in urban drainage systems.

PubMed

Mugume, Seith N; Gomez, Diego E; Fu, Guangtao; Farmani, Raziyeh; Butler, David

2015-09-15

Building resilience in urban drainage systems requires consideration of a wide range of threats that contribute to urban flooding. Existing hydraulic reliability based approaches have focused on quantifying functional failure caused by extreme rainfall or increase in dry weather flows that lead to hydraulic overloading of the system. Such approaches however, do not fully explore the full system failure scenario space due to exclusion of crucial threats such as equipment malfunction, pipe collapse and blockage that can also lead to urban flooding. In this research, a new analytical approach based on global resilience analysis is investigated and applied to systematically evaluate the performance of an urban drainage system when subjected to a wide range of structural failure scenarios resulting from random cumulative link failure. Link failure envelopes, which represent the resulting loss of system functionality (impacts) are determined by computing the upper and lower limits of the simulation results for total flood volume (failure magnitude) and average flood duration (failure duration) at each link failure level. A new resilience index that combines the failure magnitude and duration into a single metric is applied to quantify system residual functionality at each considered link failure level. With this approach, resilience has been tested and characterised for an existing urban drainage system in Kampala city, Uganda. In addition, the effectiveness of potential adaptation strategies in enhancing its resilience to cumulative link failure has been tested. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Specifying design conservatism: Worst case versus probabilistic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Ralph F., Jr.

1993-01-01

Design conservatism is the difference between specified and required performance, and is introduced when uncertainty is present. The classical approach of worst-case analysis for specifying design conservatism is presented, along with the modern approach of probabilistic analysis. The appropriate degree of design conservatism is a tradeoff between the required resources and the probability and consequences of a failure. A probabilistic analysis properly models this tradeoff, while a worst-case analysis reveals nothing about the probability of failure, and can significantly overstate the consequences of failure. Two aerospace examples will be presented that illustrate problems that can arise with a worst-case analysis.

Demonstrating the Safety and Reliability of a New System or Spacecraft: Incorporating Analyses and Reviews of the Design and Processing in Determining the Number of Tests to be Conducted

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vesely, William E.; Colon, Alfredo E.

2010-01-01

Design Safety/Reliability is associated with the probability of no failure-causing faults existing in a design. Confidence in the non-existence of failure-causing faults is increased by performing tests with no failure. Reliability-Growth testing requirements are based on initial assurance and fault detection probability. Using binomial tables generally gives too many required tests compared to reliability-growth requirements. Reliability-Growth testing requirements are based on reliability principles and factors and should be used.

Evaluating quality of adhesive joints in glass-fiber plastic piping by using active thermal NDT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosso, M.; Marinho, C. A.; Nesteruk, D. A.; Rebello, J. M.; Soares, S. D.; Vavilov, V. P.

2013-05-01

GRP-type composites (Glass-fibre Reinforced Plastics) have been continuously employed in the oil industry in recent years, often on platforms, especially in pipes for water or oil under moderate temperatures. In this case, the pipes are usually connected through adhesive joints and, consequently, the detection of defects in these joints, as areas without adhesive or adhesive failure (disbonding), gains great importance. One-sided inspection on the joint surface (front side) is a challenging task because the material thickness easily exceeds 10 mm that is far beyond the limits of the capacity of thermography applied to GRP inspection, as confirmed by the experience. Detection limits have been evaluated both theoretically and experimentally as a function of outer wall thickness and defect lateral size. The 3D modeling was accomplished by using the ThermoCalc-6L software. The experimental unit consisted of a FLIR SC640 and NEC TH- 9100 IR imagers and some home-made heaters with the power from 1,5 to 30 kW. The results obtained by applying pulsed heating have demonstrated that the inspection efficiency is strongly dependent on the outer wall thickness with a value of about 8 mm being a detection limit.

Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy

2013-01-01

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (<10%) for effective normal stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

ASSESSMENT OF DYNAMIC PRA TECHNIQUES WITH INDUSTRY AVERAGE COMPONENT PERFORMANCE DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yadav, Vaibhav; Agarwal, Vivek; Gribok, Andrei V.

In the nuclear industry, risk monitors are intended to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration. Current risk monitors are limited in that they do not properly take into account the deteriorating states of plant equipment, which are unit-specific. Current approaches to computing risk monitors use probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques, but the assessment is typically a snapshot in time. Living PRA models attempt to address limitations of traditional PRA models in a limited sense by including temporary changes in plant and system configurations. However, information on plant component health are not considered. Thismore » often leaves risk monitors using living PRA models incapable of conducting evaluations with dynamic degradation scenarios evolving over time. There is a need to develop enabling approaches to solidify risk monitors to provide time and condition-dependent risk by integrating traditional PRA models with condition monitoring and prognostic techniques. This paper presents estimation of system risk evolution over time by integrating plant risk monitoring data with dynamic PRA methods incorporating aging and degradation. Several online, non-destructive approaches have been developed for diagnosing plant component conditions in nuclear industry, i.e., condition indication index, using vibration analysis, current signatures, and operational history [1]. In this work the component performance measures at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) [2] are incorporated within the various dynamic PRA methodologies [3] to provide better estimates of probability of failures. Aging and degradation is modeled within the Level-1 PRA framework and is applied to several failure modes of pumps and can be extended to a range of components, viz. valves, generators, batteries, and pipes.« less

Influence of near-surface stratigraphy on coastal landslides at Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Lake Michigan, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnhardt, W.A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Kayen, R.E.; Cochrane, G.R.

2004-01-01

Lake-level change and landslides are primary controls on the development of coastal environments along the coast of northeastern Lake Michigan. The late Quaternary geology of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore was examined with high-resolution seismic reflection profiles, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and boreholes. Based on sequence-stratigraphic principles, this study recognizes ten stratigraphic units and three major unconformities that were formed by late Pleistocene glaciation and postglacial lake-level changes. Locally high sediment supply, and reworking by two regressions and a transgression have produced a complex stratigraphy that is prone to episodic failure. In 1995, a large landslide deposited approximately 1 million m3 of sediment on the lake floor. The highly deformed landslide deposits, up to 18 m thick, extend 3-4 km offshore and unconformably overlie well-stratified glacial and lacustrine sediment. The landslide-prone bluff is underlain by channel-fill deposits that are oriented nearly perpendicular to the shoreline. The paleochannels are at least 10 m deep and 400 m wide and probably represent stream incision during a lake-level lowstand about 10.3 ka B.P. The channels filled with sediment during the subsequent transgression and lake-level highstand, which climaxed about 4.5 ka B.P. As lake level fell from the highstand, the formation of beach ridges and sand dunes sealed off the channel and isolated a small inland lake (Glen Lake), which lies 5 m above the level of Lake Michigan and may be a source of piped groundwater. Our hypothesis is that the paleochannels act as conduits for pore water flow, and thereby locally reduce soil strength and promote slope failure.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Code System, Version 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fanning, T. H.; Brunett, A. J.; Sumner, T.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 computer code is developed by Argonne National Laboratory for thermal, hydraulic, and neutronic analysis of power and flow transients in liquidmetal- cooled nuclear reactors (LMRs). SAS4A was developed to analyze severe core disruption accidents with coolant boiling and fuel melting and relocation, initiated by a very low probability coincidence of an accident precursor and failure of one or more safety systems. SASSYS-1, originally developed to address loss-of-decay-heat-removal accidents, has evolved into a tool for margin assessment in design basis accident (DBA) analysis and for consequence assessment in beyond-design-basis accident (BDBA) analysis. SAS4A contains detailed, mechanistic models of transientmore » thermal, hydraulic, neutronic, and mechanical phenomena to describe the response of the reactor core, its coolant, fuel elements, and structural members to accident conditions. The core channel models in SAS4A provide the capability to analyze the initial phase of core disruptive accidents, through coolant heat-up and boiling, fuel element failure, and fuel melting and relocation. Originally developed to analyze oxide fuel clad with stainless steel, the models in SAS4A have been extended and specialized to metallic fuel with advanced alloy cladding. SASSYS-1 provides the capability to perform a detailed thermal/hydraulic simulation of the primary and secondary sodium coolant circuits and the balance-ofplant steam/water circuit. These sodium and steam circuit models include component models for heat exchangers, pumps, valves, turbines, and condensers, and thermal/hydraulic models of pipes and plena. SASSYS-1 also contains a plant protection and control system modeling capability, which provides digital representations of reactor, pump, and valve controllers and their response to input signal changes.« less

The assessment of low probability containment failure modes using dynamic PRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunett, Acacia Joann

Although low probability containment failure modes in nuclear power plants may lead to large releases of radioactive material, these modes are typically crudely modeled in system level codes and have large associated uncertainties. Conventional risk assessment techniques (i.e. the fault-tree/event-tree methodology) are capable of accounting for these failure modes to some degree, however, they require the analyst to pre-specify the ordering of events, which can vary within the range of uncertainty of the phenomena. More recently, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) techniques have been developed which remove the dependency on the analyst. Through DPRA, it is now possible to perform a mechanistic and consistent analysis of low probability phenomena, with the timing of the possible events determined by the computational model simulating the reactor behavior. The purpose of this work is to utilize DPRA tools to assess low probability containment failure modes and the driving mechanisms. Particular focus is given to the risk-dominant containment failure modes considered in NUREG-1150, which has long been the standard for PRA techniques. More specifically, this work focuses on the low probability phenomena occurring during a station blackout (SBO) with late power recovery in the Zion Nuclear Power Plant, a Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR). Subsequent to the major risk study performed in NUREG-1150, significant experimentation and modeling regarding the mechanisms driving containment failure modes have been performed. In light of this improved understanding, NUREG-1150 containment failure modes are reviewed in this work using the current state of knowledge. For some unresolved mechanisms, such as containment loading from high pressure melt ejection and combustion events, additional analyses are performed using the accident simulation tool MELCOR to explore the bounding containment loads for realistic scenarios. A dynamic treatment in the characterization of combustible gas ignition is also presented in this work. In most risk studies, combustion is treated simplistically in that it is assumed an ignition occurs if the gas mixture achieves a concentration favorable for ignition under the premise that an adequate ignition source is available. However, the criteria affecting ignition (such as the magnitude, location and frequency of the ignition sources) are complicated. This work demonstrates a technique for characterizing the properties of an ignition source to determine a probability of ignition. The ignition model developed in this work and implemented within a dynamic framework is utilized to analyze the implications and risk significance of late combustion events. This work also explores the feasibility of using dynamic event trees (DETs) with a deterministic sampling approach to analyze low probability phenomena. The flexibility of this approach is demonstrated through the rediscretization of containment fragility curves used in construction of the DET to show convergence to a true solution. Such a rediscretization also reduces the computational burden introduced through extremely fine fragility curve discretization by subsequent refinement of fragility curve regions of interest. Another advantage of the approach is the ability to perform sensitivity studies on the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) used to determine branching probabilities without the need for rerunning the simulation code. Through review of the NUREG-1150 containment failure modes using the current state of knowledge, it is found that some failure modes, such as Alpha and rocket, can be excluded from further studies; other failure modes, such as failure to isolate, bypass, high pressure melt ejection (HPME), combustion-induced failure and overpressurization are still concerns to varying degrees. As part of this analysis, scoping studies performed in MELCOR show that HPME and the resulting direct containment heating (DCH) do not impose a significant threat to containment integrity. Additional scoping studies regarding the effect of recovery actions on in-vessel hydrogen generation show that reflooding a partially degraded core do not significantly affect hydrogen generation in-vessel, and the NUREG-1150 assumption that insufficient hydrogen is generated in-vessel to produce an energetic deflagration is confirmed. The DET analyses performed in this work show that very late power recovery produces the potential for very energetic combustion events which are capable of failing containment with a non-negligible probability, and that containment cooling systems have a significant impact on core concrete attack, and therefore combustible gas generation ex-vessel. Ultimately, the overall risk of combustion-induced containment failure is low, but its conditional likelihood can have a significant effect on accident mitigation strategies. It is also shown in this work that DETs are particularly well suited to examine low probability events because of their ability to rediscretize CDFs and observe solution convergence.

High Temperature Water Heat Pipes Radiator for a Brayton Space Reactor Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Genk, Mohamed S.; Tournier, Jean-Michel

2006-01-01

A high temperature water heat pipes radiator design is developed for a space power system with a sectored gas-cooled reactor and three Closed Brayton Cycle (CBC) engines, for avoidance of single point failures in reactor cooling and energy conversion and rejection. The CBC engines operate at turbine inlet and exit temperatures of 1144 K and 952 K. They have a net efficiency of 19.4% and each provides 30.5 kWe of net electrical power to the load. A He-Xe gas mixture serves as the turbine working fluid and cools the reactor core, entering at 904 K and exiting at 1149 K. Each CBC loop is coupled to a reactor sector, which is neutronically and thermally coupled, but hydraulically decoupled to the other two sectors, and to a NaK-78 secondary loop with two water heat pipes radiator panels. The segmented panels each consist of a forward fixed segment and two rear deployable segments, operating hydraulically in parallel. The deployed radiator has an effective surface area of 203 m2, and when the rear segments are folded, the stowed power system fits in the launch bay of the DELTA-IV Heavy launch vehicle. For enhanced reliability, the water heat pipes operate below 50% of their wicking limit; the sonic limit is not a concern because of the water, high vapor pressure at the temperatures of interest (384 - 491 K). The rejected power by the radiator peaks when the ratio of the lengths of evaporator sections of the longest and shortest heat pipes is the same as that of the major and minor widths of the segments. The shortest and hottest heat pipes in the rear segments operate at 491 K and 2.24 MPa, and each rejects 154 W. The longest heat pipes operate cooler (427 K and 0.52 MPa) and because they are 69% longer, reject more power (200 W each). The longest and hottest heat pipes in the forward segments reject the largest power (320 W each) while operating at ~ 46% of capillary limit. The vapor temperature and pressure in these heat pipes are 485 K and 1.97 MPa. By contrast, the shortest water heat pipes in the forward segments operate much cooler (427 K and 0.52 MPa), and reject a much lower power of 45 W each. The radiator with six fixed and 12 rear deployable segments rejects a total of 324 kWth, weights 994 kg and has an average specific power of 326 Wth/kg and a specific mass of 5.88 kg/m2.

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherhold, Robert C.; Ucci, Anthony M.

1994-01-01

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

A new method for ultrasound detection of interfacial position in gas-liquid two-phase flow.

PubMed

Coutinho, Fábio Rizental; Ofuchi, César Yutaka; de Arruda, Lúcia Valéria Ramos; Neves, Flávio; Morales, Rigoberto E M

2014-05-22

Ultrasonic measurement techniques for velocity estimation are currently widely used in fluid flow studies and applications. An accurate determination of interfacial position in gas-liquid two-phase flows is still an open problem. The quality of this information directly reflects on the accuracy of void fraction measurement, and it provides a means of discriminating velocity information of both phases. The algorithm known as Velocity Matched Spectrum (VM Spectrum) is a velocity estimator that stands out from other methods by returning a spectrum of velocities for each interrogated volume sample. Interface detection of free-rising bubbles in quiescent liquid presents some difficulties for interface detection due to abrupt changes in interface inclination. In this work a method based on velocity spectrum curve shape is used to generate a spatial-temporal mapping, which, after spatial filtering, yields an accurate contour of the air-water interface. It is shown that the proposed technique yields a RMS error between 1.71 and 3.39 and a probability of detection failure and false detection between 0.89% and 11.9% in determining the spatial-temporal gas-liquid interface position in the flow of free rising bubbles in stagnant liquid. This result is valid for both free path and with transducer emitting through a metallic plate or a Plexiglas pipe.

A New Method for Ultrasound Detection of Interfacial Position in Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flow

PubMed Central

Coutinho, Fábio Rizental; Ofuchi, César Yutaka; de Arruda, Lúcia Valéria Ramos; Jr., Flávio Neves; Morales, Rigoberto E. M.

2014-01-01

Ultrasonic measurement techniques for velocity estimation are currently widely used in fluid flow studies and applications. An accurate determination of interfacial position in gas-liquid two-phase flows is still an open problem. The quality of this information directly reflects on the accuracy of void fraction measurement, and it provides a means of discriminating velocity information of both phases. The algorithm known as Velocity Matched Spectrum (VM Spectrum) is a velocity estimator that stands out from other methods by returning a spectrum of velocities for each interrogated volume sample. Interface detection of free-rising bubbles in quiescent liquid presents some difficulties for interface detection due to abrupt changes in interface inclination. In this work a method based on velocity spectrum curve shape is used to generate a spatial-temporal mapping, which, after spatial filtering, yields an accurate contour of the air-water interface. It is shown that the proposed technique yields a RMS error between 1.71 and 3.39 and a probability of detection failure and false detection between 0.89% and 11.9% in determining the spatial-temporal gas-liquid interface position in the flow of free rising bubbles in stagnant liquid. This result is valid for both free path and with transducer emitting through a metallic plate or a Plexiglas pipe. PMID:24858961

The Simulation Heuristic.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-15

Crane. is capable of imagining unicorns -- and we expect he is -- why does he find it relatively difficult to imagine himself avoiding a 30 minute...probability that the plan will succeed and to evaluate the risk of various causes of failure . We have suggested that the construction of scenarios is...expect that events will unfold as planned. However, the cumulative probability of at least one fatal failure could be overwhelmingly high even when

USAREC’S (United States Army Recruiting Command) Image to the Officer Corps Good, Bad, or Irrelevant? A Prescription for Change.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-04-07

34 Blackhol -" * Success/failure is too clear cut * The probability of failure is greater than the probability of success The Job Itsellf (59) • Does not...indecd, it is not -- or as one officer in the survey co-ented "a blackhole ." USAHEC is a viable career oppor- tunity; it is career enhancing; and

VHSIC/VHSIC-Like Reliability Prediction Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

prediction would require ’ kowledge of event statistics as well as device robustness. Ii1 Additionally, although this is primarily a theoretical, bottom...Degradation in Section 5.3 P = Power PDIP = Plastic DIP P(f) = Probability of Failure due to EOS or ESD P(flc) = Probability of Failure given Contact from an...the results of those stresses: Device Stress Part Number Power Dissipation Manufacturer Test Type Part Description Junction Teniperatune Package Type

Effect of Combined Loading Due to Bending and Internal Pressure on Pipe Flaw Evaluation Criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miura, Naoki; Sakai, Shinsuke

Considering a rule for the rationalization of maintenance of Light Water Reactor piping, reliable flaw evaluation criteria are essential for determining how a detected flaw will be detrimental to continuous plant operation. Ductile fracture is one of the dominant failure modes that must be considered for carbon steel piping and can be analyzed by elastic-plastic fracture mechanics. Some analytical efforts have provided various flaw evaluation criteria using load correction factors, such as the Z-factors in the JSME codes on fitness-for-service for nuclear power plants and the section XI of the ASME boiler and pressure vessel code. The present Z-factors were conventionally determined, taking conservativity and simplicity into account; however, the effect of internal pressure, which is an important factor under actual plant conditions, was not adequately considered. Recently, a J-estimation scheme, LBB.ENGC for the ductile fracture analysis of circumferentially through-wall-cracked pipes subjected to combined loading was developed for more accurate prediction under more realistic conditions. This method explicitly incorporates the contributions of both bending and tension due to internal pressure by means of a scheme that is compatible with an arbitrary combined-loading history. In this study, the effect of internal pressure on the flaw evaluation criteria was investigated using the new J-estimation scheme. The Z-factor obtained in this study was compared with the presently used Z-factors, and the predictability of the current flaw evaluation criteria was quantitatively evaluated in consideration of the internal pressure.

Role of HIV Infection Duration and CD4 Cell Level at Initiation of Combination Anti-Retroviral Therapy on Risk of Failure

PubMed Central

Lodi, Sara; Phillips, Andrew; Fidler, Sarah; Hawkins, David; Gilson, Richard; McLean, Ken; Fisher, Martin; Post, Frank; Johnson, Anne M.; Walker-Nthenda, Louise; Dunn, David; Porter, Kholoud

2013-01-01

Background The development of HIV drug resistance and subsequent virological failure are often cited as potential disadvantages of early cART initiation. However, their long-term probability is not known, and neither is the role of duration of infection at the time of initiation. Methods Patients enrolled in the UK Register of HIV seroconverters were followed-up from cART initiation to last HIV-RNA measurement. Through survival analysis we examined predictors of virologic failure (2HIV-RNA ≥400 c/l while on cART) including CD4 count and HIV duration at initiation. We also estimated the cumulative probabilities of failure and drug resistance (from the available HIV nucleotide sequences) for early initiators (cART within 12 months of seroconversion). Results Of 1075 starting cART at a median (IQR) CD4 count 272 (190,370) cells/mm3 and HIV duration 3 (1,6) years, virological failure occurred in 163 (15%). Higher CD4 count at initiation, but not HIV infection duration at cART initiation, was independently associated with lower risk of failure (p=0.033 and 0.592 respectively). Among 230 patients initiating cART early, 97 (42%) discontinued it after a median of 7 months; cumulative probabilities of resistance and failure by 8 years were 7% (95% CI 4,11) and 19% (13,25), respectively. Conclusion Although the rate of discontinuation of early cART in our cohort was high, the long-term rate of virological failure was low. Our data do not support early cART initiation being associated with increased risk of failure and drug resistance. PMID:24086588

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

2013-01-01

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

Performance analysis of the word synchronization properties of the outer code in a TDRSS decoder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A self-synchronizing coding scheme for NASA's TDRSS satellite system is a concatenation of a (2,1,7) inner convolutional code with a (255,223) Reed-Solomon outer code. Both symbol and word synchronization are achieved without requiring that any additional symbols be transmitted. An important parameter which determines the performance of the word sync procedure is the ratio of the decoding failure probability to the undetected error probability. Ideally, the former should be as small as possible compared to the latter when the error correcting capability of the code is exceeded. A computer simulation of a (255,223) Reed-Solomon code as carried out. Results for decoding failure probability and for undetected error probability are tabulated and compared.

Rotating Stall Suppression Using Oscillatory Blowing Actuation on Blades

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-30

severe mechanical vibrations. Certainly, violent surge cannot be tolerated in an aircraft jet engine because of the danger of mechanical failure or...isolated airfoils increases the stall angle. Therefore, herein it was hypothesized that when a stall cell reaches a blade with jet actuation, the stall...Detailed view of the jet slot. Figure 2.30: Wing fences mounted on test blade (with the neighboring airfoils re- moved). (a) Attachment and pipe (b

Economic Leverage on the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-07-01

structure of the external markets and the Soviet will to resist the foreign pressure and assume the attendant costs. Consideration of the elements making up...additional handi- caps of late development of alternative energy plans, failure to offer alternative markets for the sales of pipe and equipment, and...be left to the dic- tates of the market , but in actuality every government intervenes to shape market flows to some extent. Where purposeful

National Levee Database: monitoring, vulnerability assessment and management in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso

2015-04-01

A properly designed and constructed levees system can often be an effective device for repelling floodwaters and provide barriers against inundation to protect urbanized and industrial areas. However, the delineation of flooding-prone areas and the related hydraulic hazard mapping taking account of uncertainty (Apel et al., 2008) are usually developed with a scarce consideration of the possible occurrence of levee failures along river channels (Mazzoleni et al., 2014). Indeed, it is well known that flooding is frequently the result of levee failures that can be triggered by several factors, as: (1) overtopping, (2) scouring of the foundation, (3) seepage/piping of levee body/foundation, and (4) sliding of the foundation. Among these failure mechanisms that are influenced by the levee's geometrical configuration, hydraulic conditions (e.g. river level and seepage), and material properties (e.g. permeability, cohesion, porosity, compaction), the piping caused by seepage (ICOLD, http://www.icold-cigb.org) is considered one of the most dominant levee failure mechanisms (Colleselli F., 1994; Wallingford H. R., 2003). The difficulty of estimating the hydraulic parameters to properly describe the seepage line within the body and foundation of the levee implies that the study of the critical flood wave routing is typically carried out by assuming that the levee system is undamaged during the flood event. In this context, implementing and making operational a National Levee Database (NLD), effectively structured and continuously updated, becomes fundamental to have a searchable inventory of information about levees available as a key resource supporting decisions and actions affecting levee safety. The ItaliaN LEvee Database (INLED) has been recently developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Civil Protection Department of the Presidency of Council of Ministers. INLED has the main focus of collecting comprehensive information about Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.

Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: A Bayesian experimental design approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongqiao; Lin, Guang; Li, Jinglai

2016-05-01

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify the probability of undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples.

The influence of microstructure on the probability of early failure in aluminum-based interconnects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwyer, V. M.

2004-09-01

For electromigration in short aluminum interconnects terminated by tungsten vias, the well known "short-line" effect applies. In a similar manner, for longer lines, early failure is determined by a critical value Lcrit for the length of polygranular clusters. Any cluster shorter than Lcrit is "immortal" on the time scale of early failure where the figure of merit is not the standard t50 value (the time to 50% failures), but rather the total probability of early failure, Pcf. Pcf is a complex function of current density, linewidth, line length, and material properties (the median grain size d50 and grain size shape factor σd). It is calculated here using a model based around the theory of runs, which has proved itself to be a useful tool for assessing the probability of extreme events. Our analysis shows that Pcf is strongly dependent on σd, and a change in σd from 0.27 to 0.5 can cause an order of magnitude increase in Pcf under typical test conditions. This has implications for the web-based two-dimensional grain-growth simulator MIT/EmSim, which generates grain patterns with σd=0.27, while typical as-patterned structures are better represented by a σd in the range 0.4 - 0.6. The simulator will consequently overestimate interconnect reliability due to this particular electromigration failure mode.

Heat-Pipe Bismuth Laser; Examination of Laser Action at 4722A in Bismuth Vapor

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-11-01

11, 15(1975). of Type 6p 3 -6p 2 7s in the Bismuth Atomic Spectrum in Intermediate Coupling," Acta Physica Polonica A47, 231(1975). 19. A.N. Nesmeyanov...Calculated Transit n Probabilities and Lifetimes for the First Excited Configuration np (n+l)s in the Neutral As, Sb and Bi Atoms, " Physica Scripta

Optimize out-of-core thermionic energy conversion for nuclear electric propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, J. F.

1977-01-01

Current designs for out of core thermionic energy conversion (TEC) to power nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) were evaluated. Approaches to improve out of core TEC are emphasized and probabilities for success are indicated. TEC gains are available with higher emitter temperatures and greater power densities. Good potentialities for accommodating external high temperature, high power density TEC with heat pipe cooled reactors exist.

Uplifting Behavior of Shallow Buried Pipe in Liquefiable Soil by Dynamic Centrifuge Test

PubMed Central

Liu, Jingwen; Ling, Daosheng

2014-01-01

Underground pipelines are widely applied in the so-called lifeline engineerings. It shows according to seismic surveys that the damage from soil liquefaction to underground pipelines was the most serious, whose failures were mainly in the form of pipeline uplifting. In the present study, dynamic centrifuge model tests were conducted to study the uplifting behaviors of shallow-buried pipeline subjected to seismic vibration in liquefied sites. The uplifting mechanism was discussed through the responses of the pore water pressure and earth pressure around the pipeline. Additionally, the analysis of force, which the pipeline was subjected to before and during vibration, was introduced and proved to be reasonable by the comparison of the measured and the calculated results. The uplifting behavior of pipe is the combination effects of multiple forces, and is highly dependent on the excess pore pressure. PMID:25121140

Temperature control of thermal-gas-dynamical installation in cleaning oil-well tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penner, V. A.; Martemyanov, D. B.; Pshenichnikova, V. V.

2017-08-01

The article provides the study results of cleaning oil-well tubes, the oil-well tube failure reasons for service by their types have been considered. The chemical method of cleaning oil-well tubes as the least expensive has been reviewed when acid solution moves to the interptube space mixing up with oil and liquidates paraffin and pitches deposits on the internal pipe surface. Except the chemical method of pipes cleaning the mechanical one was considered as well. Also the disadvantages -such as the low productivity of cleaning and design complexity- of this deposits removal method on the internal oil-well tube surface have been considered. An effective method for cleaning oil-well tubing from paraffin and pitches by the thermodynamic plant based on the aircraft engine has been introduced for the first time. The temperature distribution graph in the gas stream at the engine output has been given.

Dislocation-pipe diffusion in nitride superlattices observed in direct atomic resolution.

PubMed

Garbrecht, Magnus; Saha, Bivas; Schroeder, Jeremy L; Hultman, Lars; Sands, Timothy D

2017-04-06

Device failure from diffusion short circuits in microelectronic components occurs via thermally induced migration of atoms along high-diffusivity paths: dislocations, grain boundaries, and free surfaces. Even well-annealed single-grain metallic films contain dislocation densities of about 10 14  m -2 ; hence dislocation-pipe diffusion (DPD) becomes a major contribution at working temperatures. While its theoretical concept was established already in the 1950s and its contribution is commonly measured using indirect tracer, spectroscopy, or electrical methods, no direct observation of DPD at the atomic level has been reported. We present atomically-resolved electron microscopy images of the onset and progression of diffusion along threading dislocations in sequentially annealed nitride metal/semiconductor superlattices, and show that this type of diffusion can be independent of concentration gradients in the system but governed by the reduction of strain fields in the lattice.

Design of high temperature ceramic components against fast fracture and time-dependent failure using cares/life

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadaan, O.M.; Powers, L.M.; Nemeth, N.N.

1995-08-01

A probabilistic design methodology which predicts the fast fracture and time-dependent failure behavior of thermomechanically loaded ceramic components is discussed using the CARES/LIFE integrated design computer program. Slow crack growth (SCG) is assumed to be the mechanism responsible for delayed failure behavior. Inert strength and dynamic fatigue data obtained from testing coupon specimens (O-ring and C-ring specimens) are initially used to calculate the fast fracture and SCG material parameters as a function of temperature using the parameter estimation techniques available with the CARES/LIFE code. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to compute the stress distributions for the tube as amore » function of applied pressure. Knowing the stress and temperature distributions and the fast fracture and SCG material parameters, the life time for a given tube can be computed. A stress-failure probability-time to failure (SPT) diagram is subsequently constructed for these tubes. Such a diagram can be used by design engineers to estimate the time to failure at a given failure probability level for a component subjected to a given thermomechanical load.« less

Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry LDRD 13-0144 Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Scott A.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Romero, Vicente J.

2015-09-01

This SAND report summarizes our work on the Sandia National Laboratory LDRD project titled "Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry" which was project #165617 and proposal #13-0144. This report merely summarizes our work. Those interested in the technical details are encouraged to read the full published results, and contact the report authors for the status of the software and follow-on projects.

Uncertainty Analysis via Failure Domain Characterization: Polynomial Requirement Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework based on the characterization of the uncertain parameter space. This characterization enables the identification of worst-case uncertainty combinations and the approximation of the failure and safe domains with a high level of accuracy. Because these approximations are comprised of subsets of readily computable probability, they enable the calculation of arbitrarily tight upper and lower bounds to the failure probability. A Bernstein expansion approach is used to size hyper-rectangular subsets while a sum of squares programming approach is used to size quasi-ellipsoidal subsets. These methods are applicable to requirement functions whose functional dependency on the uncertainty is a known polynomial. Some of the most prominent features of the methodology are the substantial desensitization of the calculations from the uncertainty model assumed (i.e., the probability distribution describing the uncertainty) as well as the accommodation for changes in such a model with a practically insignificant amount of computational effort.

Uncertainty Analysis via Failure Domain Characterization: Unrestricted Requirement Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework based on the characterization of the uncertain parameter space. This characterization enables the identification of worst-case uncertainty combinations and the approximation of the failure and safe domains with a high level of accuracy. Because these approximations are comprised of subsets of readily computable probability, they enable the calculation of arbitrarily tight upper and lower bounds to the failure probability. The methods developed herein, which are based on nonlinear constrained optimization, are applicable to requirement functions whose functional dependency on the uncertainty is arbitrary and whose explicit form may even be unknown. Some of the most prominent features of the methodology are the substantial desensitization of the calculations from the assumed uncertainty model (i.e., the probability distribution describing the uncertainty) as well as the accommodation for changes in such a model with a practically insignificant amount of computational effort.

Oman India Pipeline: An operational repair strategy based on a rational assessment of risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

German, P.

1996-12-31

This paper describes the development of a repair strategy for the operational phase of the Oman India Pipeline based upon the probability and consequences of a pipeline failure. Risk analyses and cost benefit analyses performed provide guidance on the level of deepwater repair development effort appropriate for the Oman India Pipeline project and identifies critical areas toward which more intense development effort should be directed. The risk analysis results indicate that the likelihood of a failure of the Oman India Pipeline during its 40-year life is low. Furthermore, the probability of operational failure of the pipeline in deepwater regions ismore » extremely low, the major proportion of operational failure risk being associated with the shallow water regions.« less

Game-theoretic strategies for asymmetric networked systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell

Abstract—We consider an infrastructure consisting of a network of systems each composed of discrete components that can be reinforced at a certain cost to guard against attacks. The network provides the vital connectivity between systems, and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. We characterize the system-level correlations using the aggregate failure correlation function that specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network. The survival probabilities of systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure survival as a gamemore » between anattacker and a provider, using the sum-form and product-form utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a cost term. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions which provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities, and also the expected capacity specified by the total number of operational components. These expressions differ only in a single term for the sum-form and product-form utilities, despite their significant differences.We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing infrastructures.« less

Interim Report on the Examination of Corrosion Damage in Homes Constructed With Imported Wallboard: Examination of Samples Received September 28, 2009.

PubMed

Pitchure, D J; Ricker, R E; Williams, M E; Claggett, S A

2010-01-01

Since many household systems are fabricated out of metallic materials, changes to the household environment that accelerate corrosion rates will increase the frequency of failures in these systems. Recently, it has been reported that homes constructed with imported wallboard have increased failure rates in appliances, air conditioner heat exchanger coils, and visible corrosion on electrical wiring and other metal components. At the request of the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) became involved through the Interagency Agreement CPSC-1-09-0023 to perform metallurgical analyses on samples and corrosion products removed from homes constructed using imported wallboard. This document reports on the analysis of the first group of samples received by NIST from CPSC. The samples received by NIST on September 28, 2009 consisted of copper tubing for supplying natural gas and two air conditioner heat exchanger coils. The examinations performed by NIST consisted of photography, metallurgical cross-sectioning, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and x-ray diffraction (XRD). Leak tests were also performed on the air conditioner heat exchanger coils. The objective of these examinations was to determine extent and nature of the corrosive attack, the chemical composition of the corrosion product, and the potential chemical reactions or environmental species responsible for accelerated corrosion. A thin black corrosion product was found on samples of the copper tubing. The XRD analysis of this layer indicated that this corrosion product was a copper sulfide phase and the diffraction peaks corresponded with those for the mineral digenite (Cu9S5). Corrosion products were also observed on other types of metals in the air conditioner coils where condensation would frequently wet the metals. The thickness of the corrosion product layer on a copper natural gas supply pipe with a wall thickness of 1.2 mm ± 0.2 mm was between 5 μm and 10 μm. These results indicate that a chemical compound that contains reduced sulfur, such as hydrogen sulfide (H2S), is present in the environment to which these samples were exposed. The literature indicates that these species strongly influence corrosion rates of most metals and alloys even at low concentrations. None of the samples examined were failed components, and no evidence of imminent failure was found on any of the samples examined. All of the corrosion damage observed to date is consistent with a general attack form of corrosion that will progress in a uniform and relatively predictable manner. No evidence of localized attack was found, but these forms of attack typically require an incubation period before they initiate. Therefore, the number of samples examined to date is too small to draw a conclusion on the relative probability of these forms of corrosion being able to cause or not cause failure. Samples from failed systems or from laboratory tests conducted over a wide range of metallurgical and environmental conditions will be required to assess the probability of these other forms of corrosion causing failure.

Interim Report on the Examination of Corrosion Damage in Homes Constructed With Imported Wallboard: Examination of Samples Received September 28, 2009

PubMed Central

Pitchure, D. J.; Ricker, R. E.; Williams, M. E.; Claggett, S. A.

2010-01-01

Since many household systems are fabricated out of metallic materials, changes to the household environment that accelerate corrosion rates will increase the frequency of failures in these systems. Recently, it has been reported that homes constructed with imported wallboard have increased failure rates in appliances, air conditioner heat exchanger coils, and visible corrosion on electrical wiring and other metal components. At the request of the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) became involved through the Interagency Agreement CPSC-1-09-0023 to perform metallurgical analyses on samples and corrosion products removed from homes constructed using imported wallboard. This document reports on the analysis of the first group of samples received by NIST from CPSC. The samples received by NIST on September 28, 2009 consisted of copper tubing for supplying natural gas and two air conditioner heat exchanger coils. The examinations performed by NIST consisted of photography, metallurgical cross-sectioning, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and x-ray diffraction (XRD). Leak tests were also performed on the air conditioner heat exchanger coils. The objective of these examinations was to determine extent and nature of the corrosive attack, the chemical composition of the corrosion product, and the potential chemical reactions or environmental species responsible for accelerated corrosion. A thin black corrosion product was found on samples of the copper tubing. The XRD analysis of this layer indicated that this corrosion product was a copper sulfide phase and the diffraction peaks corresponded with those for the mineral digenite (Cu9S5). Corrosion products were also observed on other types of metals in the air conditioner coils where condensation would frequently wet the metals. The thickness of the corrosion product layer on a copper natural gas supply pipe with a wall thickness of 1.2 mm ± 0.2 mm was between 5 μm and 10 μm. These results indicate that a chemical compound that contains reduced sulfur, such as hydrogen sulfide (H2S), is present in the environment to which these samples were exposed. The literature indicates that these species strongly influence corrosion rates of most metals and alloys even at low concentrations. None of the samples examined were failed components, and no evidence of imminent failure was found on any of the samples examined. All of the corrosion damage observed to date is consistent with a general attack form of corrosion that will progress in a uniform and relatively predictable manner. No evidence of localized attack was found, but these forms of attack typically require an incubation period before they initiate. Therefore, the number of samples examined to date is too small to draw a conclusion on the relative probability of these forms of corrosion being able to cause or not cause failure. Samples from failed systems or from laboratory tests conducted over a wide range of metallurgical and environmental conditions will be required to assess the probability of these other forms of corrosion causing failure. PMID:27134786

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

A novel risk assessment method for landfill slope failure: Case study application for Bhalswa Dumpsite, India.

PubMed

Jahanfar, Ali; Amirmojahedi, Mohsen; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Dubey, Brajesh; McBean, Edward; Kumar, Dinesh

2017-03-01

Rapid population growth of major urban centres in many developing countries has created massive landfills with extraordinary heights and steep side-slopes, which are frequently surrounded by illegal low-income residential settlements developed too close to landfills. These extraordinary landfills are facing high risks of catastrophic failure with potentially large numbers of fatalities. This study presents a novel method for risk assessment of landfill slope failure, using probabilistic analysis of potential failure scenarios and associated fatalities. The conceptual framework of the method includes selecting appropriate statistical distributions for the municipal solid waste (MSW) material shear strength and rheological properties for potential failure scenario analysis. The MSW material properties for a given scenario is then used to analyse the probability of slope failure and the resulting run-out length to calculate the potential risk of fatalities. In comparison with existing methods, which are solely based on the probability of slope failure, this method provides a more accurate estimate of the risk of fatalities associated with a given landfill slope failure. The application of the new risk assessment method is demonstrated with a case study for a landfill located within a heavily populated area of New Delhi, India.

Nitrile O-ring Cracking: A Case of Vacuum Flange O-ring Failures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dees, Craig

2016-07-01

A review of recent nitrile O-ring failures in ISO-KF vacuum flange connections in glovebox applications is presented. An investigation of a single “isolated” o-ring failure leads to the discovery of cracked nitrile o-rings in a glovebox atmospheric control unit. The initial cause of the o-ring failure is attributed to ozone degradation. However, additional investigation reveals nitrile o-ring cracking on multiple gloveboxes and general purpose piping, roughly 85% of the nitrile o-rings removed for inspection show evidence of visible cracking after being in service for 18 months or less. The results of material testing and ambient air testing is presented, elevatedmore » ozone levels are not found. The contributing factors of o-ring failure, including nitrile air sensitivity, inadequate storage practices, and poor installation techniques, are discussed. A discussion of nitrile o-ring material properties, the benefits and limitations, and alternate materials are discussed. Considerations for o-ring material selection, purchasing, storage, and installation are presented in the context of lessons learned from the nitrile o-ring cracking investigation. This paper can be presented in 20 minutes and does not require special accommodations or special audio visual devices.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, J.R.; Keywood, S.S.

PTFE-based gaskets in chemical plant service typically fail in an extrusion mode, sometimes referred to as blowout. Test work previously published by Monsanto indicated that correctly installed PTFE-based gaskets have pressure performance far exceeding system pressure ratings. These results have since been confirmed by extensive testing at the Montreal based Ecole Polytechnique Tightness Testing and Research Laboratory (TTRL), funded by a consortium of gasket users and manufacturers. With the knowledge that properly installed gaskets can withstand system pressures in excess of 1,000 psig [6,894 kPa], failures at two chemical plants were re-examined. This analysis indicates that extrusion type failures canmore » be caused by excessive internal pressures, associated with sections of pipe having an external source of heat coincident with a blocked flow condition. This results in high system pressures which explain the extrusion type failures observed. The paper discusses details of individual failures and examines methods to prevent them. Other causes for extrusion failures are reviewed, with a recommendation that stronger gasket materials not be utilized to correct problems until it is verified that excessive pressure build-up is not the problem. Also summarized are the requirements for proper installation to achieve the potential blowout resistance found in these gaskets.« less

Effects of footwear and stride length on metatarsal strains and failure in running.

PubMed

Firminger, Colin R; Fung, Anita; Loundagin, Lindsay L; Edwards, W Brent

2017-11-01

The metatarsal bones of the foot are particularly susceptible to stress fracture owing to the high strains they experience during the stance phase of running. Shoe cushioning and stride length reduction represent two potential interventions to decrease metatarsal strain and thus stress fracture risk. Fourteen male recreational runners ran overground at a 5-km pace while motion capture and plantar pressure data were collected during four experimental conditions: traditional shoe at preferred and 90% preferred stride length, and minimalist shoe at preferred and 90% preferred stride length. Combined musculoskeletal - finite element modeling based on motion analysis and computed tomography data were used to quantify metatarsal strains and the probability of failure was determined using stress-life predictions. No significant interactions between footwear and stride length were observed. Running in minimalist shoes increased strains for all metatarsals by 28.7% (SD 6.4%; p<0.001) and probability of failure for metatarsals 2-4 by 17.3% (SD 14.3%; p≤0.005). Running at 90% preferred stride length decreased strains for metatarsal 4 by 4.2% (SD 2.0%; p≤0.007), and no differences in probability of failure were observed. Significant increases in metatarsal strains and the probability of failure were observed for recreational runners acutely transitioning to minimalist shoes. Running with a 10% reduction in stride length did not appear to be a beneficial technique for reducing the risk of metatarsal stress fracture, however the increased number of loading cycles for a given distance was not detrimental either. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experiences with Probabilistic Analysis Applied to Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a semi-analytic method for computing frequency dependent means, variances, and failure probabilities for arbitrarily large-order closed-loop dynamical systems possessing a single uncertain parameter or with multiple highly correlated uncertain parameters. The approach will be shown to not suffer from the same computational challenges associated with computing failure probabilities using conventional FORM/SORM techniques. The approach is demonstrated by computing the probabilistic frequency domain performance of an optimal feed-forward disturbance rejection scheme.

National Program of Inspection of Non-Federal Dams.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-01

actions to improve the .;,.fety of Federal dams . 3 B. PROGRAM REVITALIZATION Subsequent to the failure of the Teton Dam , near Newdale, Idaho, in June...development of hydrostatic heads sufficient to create in the area downstream of the dam sand boils that erode materials by the phenomenon known as " piping " and...Eh irmmhhhommlm mhhhhmmmmhhlo US Arm op National Program of Inspection of Non-Federal Dams Final Report to Congress The National Dam Inspection Act of

Improved Correction of Misclassification Bias With Bootstrap Imputation.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2018-07-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative database research can create bias due to misclassification. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) can correct for this bias, requires only code sensitivity and specificity, but may return invalid results. Bootstrap imputation (BI) can also address misclassification bias but traditionally requires multivariate models to accurately estimate disease probability. This study compared misclassification bias correction using QBA and BI. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 100,000 hospitalized patients. Prevalence of severe renal failure in 86 patient strata and its association with 43 covariates was determined and compared with results in which renal failure status was determined using diagnostic codes (sensitivity 71.3%, specificity 96.2%). Differences in results (misclassification bias) were then corrected with QBA or BI (using progressively more complex methods to estimate disease probability). In total, 7.4% of patients had severe renal failure. Imputing disease status with diagnostic codes exaggerated prevalence estimates [median relative change (range), 16.6% (0.8%-74.5%)] and its association with covariates [median (range) exponentiated absolute parameter estimate difference, 1.16 (1.01-2.04)]. QBA produced invalid results 9.3% of the time and increased bias in estimates of both disease prevalence and covariate associations. BI decreased misclassification bias with increasingly accurate disease probability estimates. QBA can produce invalid results and increase misclassification bias. BI avoids invalid results and can importantly decrease misclassification bias when accurate disease probability estimates are used.

Surface discharge of raw wastewater among unsewered homes in central Alabama

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, M.; Das, P.; Blackwell, A.; Aytekin, E.; Hu, Y.; White, K.; Jones, R.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Discussions of future water and wastewater challenges in the US typically focus on crumbling infrastructure. However, another major challenge has been almost entirely neglected. A growing body of evidence indicates that household discharge of untreated wastewater to the surface (through so-called "straight pipes") is widespread in poor rural communities of Appalachia and the southeastern US. The US Census included water and wastewater questions until 1990. However, the census questions do not appear to differentiate clearly between legal onsite treatment and discharge of raw wastewater to the ground (EPA, 1999; US Census, 2015). Although straight pipes are illegal, many reports from the southern US and Appalachia indicate that the practice is still common in poor rural areas (e.g., EPA Region 4, 2002; du Albuquerque, 2011). A representative, county-scale report on straight pipes in Madison County, NC (Baldwin, 2000) found that 5.6% of unsewered rural households directly discharged raw wastewater and a 2005 study of Bibb County, AL, reported 15% straight pipe among households not connected to sewer (White and Jones, 2006). We focused on two Alabama counties (Hale and Wilcox) with high rates of rural poverty (26.6% and 39.2% of households in poverty, respectively) and soils unsuited for conventional septic systems. We used two main methods (1) site-by-site inspections of a random sample of unsewered rural homes and (2) water sample collection and analysis from impacted streams. We found high rates of straight pipe use and substantial impacts on water quality in local streams. For example, in Wilcox Co., 60% of unsewered households had a visible straight pipe; conservatively, these homes discharge 500,000 gallons of raw sewage to the ground in Wilcox Co. each day. Water sampling upstream and downstream of an unsewered town with many straight pipes indicated major impacts on surface water quality. Additionally, the literature reveals possible health impacts from onsite wastewater; the most recent survey of soil-transmitted helminths (worms) in Alabama was in Wilcox Co. and showed that 33% of children were positive for one or more helminths (Badham, 1993). We will also address possible solutions to onsite wastewater failures in rural Alabama and current evidence for how widespread these issues may be in the US.

Save water, save money

USGS Publications Warehouse

,; Fairfax County, VA

1977-01-01

The United States uses huge quantities of water. In 1976, for example, it was estimated that for each person in the U.S., about 2,000 gallons of water were used daily in homes, offices, farms, and factories. This means that roughly 420 billion gallons of water were pumped, piped, or diverted each day—about 15 percent more than in 1970. By the year 2000, our daily water needs will probably exceed 800 billion gallons.

Cyberdeterrence Between Nation-States: Plausible Strategy Or A Pipe Dream?

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

those attempting to conduct the trace.5 It is important to appreciate that no single technical attribution tech- nique provides a panacea . Most...conducted diplomatic, economic, or military initiatives. This might be enough to convince the defending state’s leaders of the adversary state’s guilt ...probable guilt , even if based solely on circumstantial evidence, could prove extremely damaging to the aggressor state’s diplomatic and informational

INTERNAL REPAIR OF PIPELINES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robin Gordon; Bill Bruce; Ian Harris

2004-04-12

The two broad categories of deposited weld metal repair and fiber-reinforced composite liner repair technologies were reviewed for potential application for internal repair of gas transmission pipelines. Both are used to some extent for other applications and could be further developed for internal, local, structural repair of gas transmission pipelines. Preliminary test programs were developed for both deposited weld metal repair and for fiber-reinforced composite liner repair. Evaluation trials have been conducted using a modified fiber-reinforced composite liner provided by RolaTube and pipe sections without liners. All pipe section specimens failed in areas of simulated damage. Pipe sections containing fiber-reinforcedmore » composite liners failed at pressures marginally greater than the pipe sections without liners. The next step is to evaluate a liner material with a modulus of elasticity approximately 95% of the modulus of elasticity for steel. Preliminary welding parameters were developed for deposited weld metal repair in preparation of the receipt of Pacific Gas & Electric's internal pipeline welding repair system (that was designed specifically for 559 mm (22 in.) diameter pipe) and the receipt of 559 mm (22 in.) pipe sections from Panhandle Eastern. The next steps are to transfer welding parameters to the PG&E system and to pressure test repaired pipe sections to failure. A survey of pipeline operators was conducted to better understand the needs and performance requirements of the natural gas transmission industry regarding internal repair. Completed surveys contained the following principal conclusions: (1) Use of internal weld repair is most attractive for river crossings, under other bodies of water, in difficult soil conditions, under highways, under congested intersections, and under railway crossings. (2) Internal pipe repair offers a strong potential advantage to the high cost of horizontal direct drilling (HDD) when a new bore must be created to solve a leak or other problem. (3) Typical travel distances can be divided into three distinct groups: up to 305 m (1,000 ft.); between 305 m and 610 m (1,000 ft. and 2,000 ft.); and beyond 914 m (3,000 ft.). All three groups require pig-based systems. A despooled umbilical system would suffice for the first two groups which represents 81% of survey respondents. The third group would require an onboard self-contained power unit for propulsion and welding/liner repair energy needs. (4) Pipe diameter sizes range from 50.8 mm (2 in.) through 1,219.2 mm (48 in.). The most common size range for 80% to 90% of operators surveyed is 508 mm to 762 mm (20 in. to 30 in.), with 95% using 558.8 mm (22 in.) pipe. An evaluation of potential repair methods clearly indicates that the project should continue to focus on the development of a repair process involving the use of GMAW welding and on the development of a repair process involving the use of fiber-reinforced composite liners.« less

Probability of loss of assured safety in systems with multiple time-dependent failure modes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helton, Jon Craig; Pilch, Martin.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie.

2012-09-01

Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems are important parts of the overall operational design of high-consequence systems. In such designs, the SL system is very robust and is intended to permit operation of the entire system under, and only under, intended conditions. In contrast, the WL system is intended to fail in a predictable and irreversible manner under accident conditions and render the entire system inoperable before an accidental operation of the SL system. The likelihood that the WL system will fail to deactivate the entire system before the SL system fails (i.e., degrades into a configuration that could allowmore » an accidental operation of the entire system) is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). Representations for PLOAS for situations in which both link physical properties and link failure properties are time-dependent are derived and numerically evaluated for a variety of WL/SL configurations, including PLOAS defined by (i) failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (ii) failure of any SL before failure of any WL, (iii) failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (iv) failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The effects of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty in the definition and numerical evaluation of PLOAS are considered.« less

Enhancing MPLS Protection Method with Adaptive Segment Repair

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chin-Ling

We propose a novel adaptive segment repair mechanism to improve traditional MPLS (Multi-Protocol Label Switching) failure recovery. The proposed mechanism protects one or more contiguous high failure probability links by dynamic setup of segment protection. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed mechanism reduces failure recovery time while also increasing network resource utilization.

Probabilistic inspection strategies for minimizing service failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brot, Abraham

1994-01-01

The INSIM computer program is described which simulates the 'limited fatigue life' environment in which aircraft structures generally operate. The use of INSIM to develop inspection strategies which aim to minimize service failures is demonstrated. Damage-tolerance methodology, inspection thresholds and customized inspections are simulated using the probability of failure as the driving parameter.

Economic Statistical Design of Integrated X-bar-S Control Chart with Preventive Maintenance and General Failure Distribution

PubMed Central

Caballero Morales, Santiago Omar

2013-01-01

The application of Preventive Maintenance (PM) and Statistical Process Control (SPC) are important practices to achieve high product quality, small frequency of failures, and cost reduction in a production process. However there are some points that have not been explored in depth about its joint application. First, most SPC is performed with the X-bar control chart which does not fully consider the variability of the production process. Second, many studies of design of control charts consider just the economic aspect while statistical restrictions must be considered to achieve charts with low probabilities of false detection of failures. Third, the effect of PM on processes with different failure probability distributions has not been studied. Hence, this paper covers these points, presenting the Economic Statistical Design (ESD) of joint X-bar-S control charts with a cost model that integrates PM with general failure distribution. Experiments showed statistically significant reductions in costs when PM is performed on processes with high failure rates and reductions in the sampling frequency of units for testing under SPC. PMID:23527082

Effect of Preconditioning and Soldering on Failures of Chip Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander A.

2014-01-01

Soldering of molded case tantalum capacitors can result in damage to Ta205 dielectric and first turn-on failures due to thermo-mechanical stresses caused by CTE mismatch between materials used in the capacitors. It is also known that presence of moisture might cause damage to plastic cases due to the pop-corning effect. However, there are only scarce literature data on the effect of moisture content on the probability of post-soldering electrical failures. In this work, that is based on a case history, different groups of similar types of CWR tantalum capacitors from two lots were prepared for soldering by bake, moisture saturation, and longterm storage at room conditions. Results of the testing showed that both factors: initial quality of the lot, and preconditioning affect the probability of failures. Baking before soldering was shown to be effective to prevent failures even in lots susceptible to pop-corning damage. Mechanism of failures is discussed and recommendations for pre-soldering bake are suggested based on analysis of moisture characteristics of materials used in the capacitors' design.

An Evidence Theoretic Approach to Design of Reliable Low-Cost UAVs

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-28

given period. For complex systems with various stages of missions, “ success ” becomes hard to define. For a UAV, for example, is success defined as...For this reason, the proposed methods in this thesis investigate probability of failure (PoF ) rather than probability of success . Further, failure will...reduction in system PoF . Figure 25 illustrates this; a single component 43 (A) from the original system (Figure 25a) is modified to act in a subsystem with

On the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, R. K.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs from a presentation on the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction is presented. Topics covered include: link failure - attenuation exceeding a specified threshold for a specified time interval or intervals; risk - the probability of one or more failures during the lifetime of the link or during a specified accounting interval; the problem - modeling the probability of attenuation by rainfall to provide a prediction of the attenuation threshold for a specified risk; and an accounting for the inadequacy of a model or models.

An experimental evaluation of software redundancy as a strategy for improving reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckhardt, Dave E., Jr.; Caglayan, Alper K.; Knight, John C.; Lee, Larry D.; Mcallister, David F.; Vouk, Mladen A.; Kelly, John P. J.

1990-01-01

The strategy of using multiple versions of independently developed software as a means to tolerate residual software design faults is suggested by the success of hardware redundancy for tolerating hardware failures. Although, as generally accepted, the independence of hardware failures resulting from physical wearout can lead to substantial increases in reliability for redundant hardware structures, a similar conclusion is not immediate for software. The degree to which design faults are manifested as independent failures determines the effectiveness of redundancy as a method for improving software reliability. Interest in multi-version software centers on whether it provides an adequate measure of increased reliability to warrant its use in critical applications. The effectiveness of multi-version software is studied by comparing estimates of the failure probabilities of these systems with the failure probabilities of single versions. The estimates are obtained under a model of dependent failures and compared with estimates obtained when failures are assumed to be independent. The experimental results are based on twenty versions of an aerospace application developed and certified by sixty programmers from four universities. Descriptions of the application, development and certification processes, and operational evaluation are given together with an analysis of the twenty versions.

Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helton, Jon C.; Brooks, Dusty Marie; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie.

Probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) is modeled for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems in which one or more WLs or SLs could potentially degrade into a precursor condition to link failure that will be followed by an actual failure after some amount of elapsed time. The following topics are considered: (i) Definition of precursor occurrence time cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for individual WLs and SLs, (ii) Formal representation of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iv) Formal representation of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (v) Approximationmore » and illustration of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (vi) Formal representation of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, (vii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, and (viii) Procedures for the verification of PLOAS calculations for the three indicated definitions of delayed link failure.« less

Reliability analysis of the F-8 digital fly-by-wire system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brock, L. D.; Goodman, H. A.

1981-01-01

The F-8 Digital Fly-by-Wire (DFBW) flight test program intended to provide the technology for advanced control systems, giving aircraft enhanced performance and operational capability is addressed. A detailed analysis of the experimental system was performed to estimated the probabilities of two significant safety critical events: (1) loss of primary flight control function, causing reversion to the analog bypass system; and (2) loss of the aircraft due to failure of the electronic flight control system. The analysis covers appraisal of risks due to random equipment failure, generic faults in design of the system or its software, and induced failure due to external events. A unique diagrammatic technique was developed which details the combinatorial reliability equations for the entire system, promotes understanding of system failure characteristics, and identifies the most likely failure modes. The technique provides a systematic method of applying basic probability equations and is augmented by a computer program written in a modular fashion that duplicates the structure of these equations.

Fishnet statistics for probabilistic strength and scaling of nacreous imbricated lamellar materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Wen; Bažant, Zdeněk P.

2017-12-01

Similar to nacre (or brick masonry), imbricated (or staggered) lamellar structures are widely found in nature and man-made materials, and are of interest for biomimetics. They can achieve high defect insensitivity and fracture toughness, as demonstrated in previous studies. But the probability distribution with a realistic far-left tail is apparently unknown. Here, strictly for statistical purposes, the microstructure of nacre is approximated by a diagonally pulled fishnet with quasibrittle links representing the shear bonds between parallel lamellae (or platelets). The probability distribution of fishnet strength is calculated as a sum of a rapidly convergent series of the failure probabilities after the rupture of one, two, three, etc., links. Each of them represents a combination of joint probabilities and of additive probabilities of disjoint events, modified near the zone of failed links by the stress redistributions caused by previously failed links. Based on previous nano- and multi-scale studies at Northwestern, the strength distribution of each link, characterizing the interlamellar shear bond, is assumed to be a Gauss-Weibull graft, but with a deeper Weibull tail than in Type 1 failure of non-imbricated quasibrittle materials. The autocorrelation length is considered equal to the link length. The size of the zone of failed links at maximum load increases with the coefficient of variation (CoV) of link strength, and also with fishnet size. With an increasing width-to-length aspect ratio, a rectangular fishnet gradually transits from the weakest-link chain to the fiber bundle, as the limit cases. The fishnet strength at failure probability 10-6 grows with the width-to-length ratio. For a square fishnet boundary, the strength at 10-6 failure probability is about 11% higher, while at fixed load the failure probability is about 25-times higher than it is for the non-imbricated case. This is a major safety advantage of the fishnet architecture over particulate or fiber reinforced materials. There is also a strong size effect, partly similar to that of Type 1 while the curves of log-strength versus log-size for different sizes could cross each other. The predicted behavior is verified by about a million Monte Carlo simulations for each of many fishnet geometries, sizes and CoVs of link strength. In addition to the weakest-link or fiber bundle, the fishnet becomes the third analytically tractable statistical model of structural strength, and has the former two as limit cases.

A technique for estimating the probability of radiation-stimulated failures of integrated microcircuits in low-intensity radiation fields: Application to the Spektr-R spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popov, V. D.; Khamidullina, N. M.

2006-10-01

In developing radio-electronic devices (RED) of spacecraft operating in the fields of ionizing radiation in space, one of the most important problems is the correct estimation of their radiation tolerance. The “weakest link” in the element base of onboard microelectronic devices under radiation effect is the integrated microcircuits (IMC), especially of large scale (LSI) and very large scale (VLSI) degree of integration. The main characteristic of IMC, which is taken into account when making decisions on using some particular type of IMC in the onboard RED, is the probability of non-failure operation (NFO) at the end of the spacecraft’s lifetime. It should be noted that, until now, the NFO has been calculated only from the reliability characteristics, disregarding the radiation effect. This paper presents the so-called “reliability” approach to determination of radiation tolerance of IMC, which allows one to estimate the probability of non-failure operation of various types of IMC with due account of radiation-stimulated dose failures. The described technique is applied to RED onboard the Spektr-R spacecraft to be launched in 2007.

14 CFR 25.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... design take-off weight), occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to 1.5 VSR1 (with... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any...

14 CFR 25.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... design take-off weight), occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to 1.5 VSR1 (with... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any...

How Does Decommissioning Forest Roads Effect Hydrologic and Geomorphic Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, T.; Luce, C.; Cissel, R. M.; Nelson, N.; Staab, B.

2010-12-01

The US Forest Service is investigating road decommissioning projects to understand how treatments change hydrologic and geomorphic risks. Road treatment effect was measured using a before after control impact design (BACI), using the Geomorphic Road Analysis and Inventory Package (http://www.fs.fed.us/GRAIP). This suite of inventory and analysis tools evaluates: road-stream hydrologic connectivity, fine sediment production and delivery, shallow landslide risk, gully initiation risk, and risks associated with stream crossing failures. The Skokomish River study site is steep and wet and received a high intensity treatment including the removal of stream crossing pipes and fills, all ditch relief pipes and a full hillslope recontouring. Road to stream hydrologic connectivity was reduced by 70%. The treatments reduced fine sediment delivery by 21.8 tons or 81%. The removal of the stream crossing culverts and large associated road fills eliminated the risk of pipe plugging related failures and the eventual erosion of over 4,000 m3 of fill. The slope stability risk was assessed using a modified version of SINMAP (Pack et al, 2005). Risk below drain point locations on the original road was reduced as water was redistributed across the hillslope to waterbars and diffuse drainage. It is unclear; however, if landslide risk was reduced across the entire treated road length because treatments slightly increased risk in some areas where new concentrated drainage features were added above steep slopes. Similarly, values of a gully index ESI (Istanbulluoglu et al, 2003), were reduced at many of the original drainage points, however some new drainage was added. ESI values still exceed a predicted conservative initiation thresholds at some sites, therefore it is uncertain if gully risk will be changed. Mann Creek occupies a moderately steep mid-elevation site in Southern Idaho. The high intensity treatments removed all constructed road drainage features including stream crossing pipes and fills, and recontoured the hillslope. The length of road that was hydrologically connected to streams was reduced by 2,923 m, or 97%. The model predicts that fine sediment delivery was reduced by 98%, to 1.0 ton annually. The risk presented by stream crossings becoming plugged was eliminated. The potential for streamflow diversion onto roads and hillslopes was precluded. The slope stability risk below drain point locations on the original road was reduced as water was no longer concentrated and discharged through a single drainage feature. Treatments are predicted to return slope stability to near undisturbed levels. Gully initiation risks, already low prior to treatment, may be reduced to negligible values. Results from these two case studies suggest that high intensity road decommissioning can be effective at reducing the risk of road sediment delivery, hydrologic connectivity and failures associated with stream crossings. Post storm monitoring will help validate these predictions and reduce uncertainty around the hydrology of decommissioned roads. If decommissioned roads continue to concentrate water and discharge it onto steep slopes, landslides and gully risk may remain elevated.

Pore geometry effects on intrapore viscous to inertial flows and on effective hydraulic parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, Kuldeep; Cardenas, M. Bayani; Deng, Wen; Bennett, Philip C.

2013-02-01

In this article, the effects of different diverging-converging pore geometries were investigated, and the microscale fluid flow and effective hydraulic properties from these pores were compared with that of a pipe from viscous to inertial laminar flow regimes. The flow fields are obtained using computational fluid dynamics, and the comparative analysis is based on a new dimensionless hydraulic shape factor β, which is the "specific surface" scaled by the length of pores. Results from all diverging-converging pores show an inverse pattern in velocity and vorticity distributions relative to the pipe flow. The hydraulic conductivity K of all pores is dependent on and can be predicted from β with a power function with an exponent of 3/2. The differences in K are due to the differences in distribution of local friction drag on the pore walls. At Reynolds number (Re) ˜ 0 flows, viscous eddies are found to exist almost in all pores in different sizes, but not in the pipe. Eddies grow when Re → 1 and leads to the failure of Darcy's law. During non-Darcy or Forchheimer flows, the apparent hydraulic conductivity Ka decreases due to the growth of eddies, which constricts the bulk flow region. At Re > 1, the rate of decrease in Ka increases, and at Re >> 1, it decreases to where the change in Ka ≈ 0, and flows once again exhibits a Darcy-type relationship. The degree of nonlinearity during non-Darcy flow decreases for pores with increasing β. The nonlinear flow behavior becomes weaker as β increases to its maximum value in the pipe, which shows no nonlinearity in the flow; in essence, Darcy's law stays valid in the pipe at all laminar flow conditions. The diverging-converging geometry in pores plays a critical role in modifying the intrapore fluid flow, implying that this property should be incorporated in effective larger-scale models, e.g., pore-network models.

Failure Surfaces for the Design of Ceramic-Lined Gun Tubes

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-12-01

density than steel making them attractive candidates as gun tube liners . A new design approach is necessary to address the large variability in strength...systems. Having established the failure criterion for the ceramic liner as the Weibull probability of failure, the need for a suitable failure...Report AMMRC SP-82-1, Materials Technology Laboratory, Watertown, Massachusetts, 1982. 7 R. Katz, Ceramic Gun Barrel Liners : Retrospect and Prospect

Mechanistic Considerations Used in the Development of the PROFIT PCI Failure Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pankaskie, P. J.

A fuel Pellet-Zircaloy Cladding (thermo-mechanical-chemical) Interactions (PC!) failure model for estimating the probability of failure in !ransient increases in power (PROFIT) was developed. PROFIT is based on 1) standard statistical methods applied to available PC! fuel failure data and 2) a mechanistic analysis of the environmental and strain-rate-dependent stress versus strain characteristics of Zircaloy cladding. The statistical analysis of fuel failures attributable to PCI suggested that parameters in addition to power, transient increase in power, and burnup are needed to define PCI fuel failures in terms of probability estimates with known confidence limits. The PROFIT model, therefore, introduces an environmentalmore » and strain-rate dependent strain energy absorption to failure (SEAF) concept to account for the stress versus strain anomalies attributable to interstitial-disloction interaction effects in the Zircaloy cladding. Assuming that the power ramping rate is the operating corollary of strain-rate in the Zircaloy cladding, then the variables of first order importance in the PCI fuel failure phenomenon are postulated to be: 1. pre-transient fuel rod power, P{sub I}, 2. transient increase in fuel rod power, {Delta}P, 3. fuel burnup, Bu, and 4. the constitutive material property of the Zircaloy cladding, SEAF.« less

Second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for Patients with Fanconi anemia and Bone Marrow Failure

PubMed Central

Ayas, Mouhab; Eapen, Mary; Le-Rademacher, Jennifer; Carreras, Jeanette; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Alter, Blanche P.; Anderlini, Paolo; Battiwalla, Minoo; Bierings, Marc; Buchbinder, David K.; Bonfim, Carmem; Camitta, Bruce M.; Fasth, Anders L.; Gale, Robert Peter; Lee, Michelle A.; Lund, Troy C.; Myers, Kasiani C.; Olsson, Richard F.; Page, Kristin M.; Prestidge, Tim D.; Radhi, Mohamed; Shah, Ami J.; Schultz, Kirk R.; Wirk, Baldeep; Wagner, John E.; Deeg, H. Joachim

2015-01-01

Second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the only salvage option for those for develop graft failure after their first HCT. Data on outcomes after second HCT in Fanconi anemia (FA) are scarce. We report outcomes after second allogeneic HCT for FA (n=81). The indication for second HCT was graft failure after the first HCT. Transplants occurred between 1990 and 2012. The timing of second transplantation predicted subsequent graft failure and survival. Graft failure was high when the second transplant occurred less than 3 months from the first. The 3-month probability of graft failure was 69% when the interval between first and second transplant was less than 3 months compared to 23% when the interval was longer (p<0.001). Consequently, survival rates were substantially lower when the interval between first and second transplant was less than 3 months, 23% at 1-year compared to 58%, when the interval was longer (p=0.001). The corresponding 5-year probabilities of survival were 16% and 45%, respectively (p=0.006). Taken together, these data suggest that fewer than half of FA patients undergoing a second HCT for graft failure are long-term survivors. There is an urgent need to develop strategies to lower graft failure after first HCT. PMID:26116087

A probabilistic analysis of the implications of instrument failures on ESA's Swarm mission for its individual satellite orbit deployments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Andrew

2015-07-01

On launch, one of Swarm's absolute scalar magnetometers (ASMs) failed to function, leaving an asymmetrical arrangement of redundant spares on different spacecrafts. A decision was required concerning the deployment of individual satellites into the low-orbit pair or the higher "lonely" orbit. I analyse the probabilities for successful operation of two of the science components of the Swarm mission in terms of a classical probabilistic failure analysis, with a view to concluding a favourable assignment for the satellite with the single working ASM. I concentrate on the following two science aspects: the east-west gradiometer aspect of the lower pair of satellites and the constellation aspect, which requires a working ASM in each of the two orbital planes. I use the so-called "expert solicitation" probabilities for instrument failure solicited from Mission Advisory Group (MAG) members. My conclusion from the analysis is that it is better to have redundancy of ASMs in the lonely satellite orbit. Although the opposite scenario, having redundancy (and thus four ASMs) in the lower orbit, increases the chance of a working gradiometer late in the mission; it does so at the expense of a likely constellation. Although the results are presented based on actual MAG members' probabilities, the results are rather generic, excepting the case when the probability of individual ASM failure is very small; in this case, any arrangement will ensure a successful mission since there is essentially no failure expected at all. Since the very design of the lower pair is to enable common mode rejection of external signals, it is likely that its work can be successfully achieved during the first 5 years of the mission.

Misinterpretation of statistical distance in security of quantum key distribution shown by simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwakoshi, Takehisa; Hirota, Osamu

2014-10-01

This study will test an interpretation in quantum key distribution (QKD) that trace distance between the distributed quantum state and the ideal mixed state is a maximum failure probability of the protocol. Around 2004, this interpretation was proposed and standardized to satisfy both of the key uniformity in the context of universal composability and operational meaning of the failure probability of the key extraction. However, this proposal has not been verified concretely yet for many years while H. P. Yuen and O. Hirota have thrown doubt on this interpretation since 2009. To ascertain this interpretation, a physical random number generator was employed to evaluate key uniformity in QKD. In this way, we calculated statistical distance which correspond to trace distance in quantum theory after a quantum measurement is done, then we compared it with the failure probability whether universal composability was obtained. As a result, the degree of statistical distance of the probability distribution of the physical random numbers and the ideal uniformity was very large. It is also explained why trace distance is not suitable to guarantee the security in QKD from the view point of quantum binary decision theory.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with competing failure modes - Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.

Fatigue Failure of External Hexagon Connections on Cemented Implant-Supported Crowns.

PubMed

Malta Barbosa, João; Navarro da Rocha, Daniel; Hirata, Ronaldo; Freitas, Gileade; Bonfante, Estevam A; Coelho, Paulo G

2018-01-17

To evaluate the probability of survival and failure modes of different external hexagon connection systems restored with anterior cement-retained single-unit crowns. The postulated null hypothesis was that there would be no differences under accelerated life testing. Fifty-four external hexagon dental implants (∼4 mm diameter) were used for single cement-retained crown replacement and divided into 3 groups: (3i) Full OSSEOTITE, Biomet 3i (n = 18); (OL) OEX P4, Osseolife Implants (n = 18); and (IL) Unihex, Intra-Lock International (n = 18). Abutments were torqued to the implants, and maxillary central incisor crowns were cemented and subjected to step-stress-accelerated life testing in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and probability of survival for a mission of 100,000 cycles at 200 N (95% 2-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Stereo and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure inspection. The beta values for 3i, OL, and IL (1.60, 1.69, and 1.23, respectively) indicated that fatigue accelerated the failure of the 3 groups. Reliability for the 3i and OL (41% and 68%, respectively) was not different between each other, but both were significantly lower than IL group (98%). Abutment screw fracture was the failure mode consistently observed in all groups. Because the reliability was significantly different between the 3 groups, our postulated null hypothesis was rejected.

The Strategic Balance in Transition: Interpreting Changes in US - USSR Weapons Levels.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-31

application of force is prima facie evidence of failure of rational analysis and patient negotiations. Rather, Pipes contends that the Soviet Union...served on active duty briefly with the Army and then with the Air Force from 1958 to 1971 and is currently a reserve officer with the Air National Guard...Soviet force postures and strategic doctrine? Dennis Ross , currently with the Departmenit of Defense’s Office of’ Net Assessment, contends that: 6 The

Developing a Knowledge Base for Detection of Powertrain Failures by Reversibly Seeding Engine Faults

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

output, in terms of torque, speed and heat losses, can be accurately performed. Our investigation has focused on creating faulty operating conditions...open loop case”, used to measure the engine output for a given driver demand, for instance, 100% pedal); in the other case (“ closed loop ”) engine...could be changed in nine steps ranging from completely open to fully closed . Another butterfly valve was placed at the end of the exhaust pipe before

Competing risk models in reliability systems, an exponential distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, I.

2018-03-01

The exponential distribution is the most widely used reliability analysis. This distribution is very suitable for representing the lengths of life of many cases and is available in a simple statistical form. The characteristic of this distribution is a constant hazard rate. The exponential distribution is the lower rank of the Weibull distributions. In this paper our effort is to introduce the basic notions that constitute an exponential competing risks model in reliability analysis using Bayesian analysis approach and presenting their analytic methods. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure. A non-informative prior distribution is used in our analysis. This model describes the likelihood function and follows with the description of the posterior function and the estimations of the point, interval, hazard function, and reliability. The net probability of failure if only one specific risk is present, crude probability of failure due to a specific risk in the presence of other causes, and partial crude probabilities are also included.

Security Threat Assessment of an Internet Security System Using Attack Tree and Vague Sets

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Security threat assessment of the Internet security system has become a greater concern in recent years because of the progress and diversification of information technology. Traditionally, the failure probabilities of bottom events of an Internet security system are treated as exact values when the failure probability of the entire system is estimated. However, security threat assessment when the malfunction data of the system's elementary event are incomplete—the traditional approach for calculating reliability—is no longer applicable. Moreover, it does not consider the failure probability of the bottom events suffered in the attack, which may bias conclusions. In order to effectively solve the problem above, this paper proposes a novel technique, integrating attack tree and vague sets for security threat assessment. For verification of the proposed approach, a numerical example of an Internet security system security threat assessment is adopted in this paper. The result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of security threat assessment methods. PMID:25405226

Cascading failures with local load redistribution in interdependent Watts-Strogatz networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Chen; Zhang, Jun; Du, Wen-Bo; Sallan, Jose Maria; Lordan, Oriol

2016-05-01

Cascading failures of loads in isolated networks have been studied extensively over the last decade. Since 2010, such research has extended to interdependent networks. In this paper, we study cascading failures with local load redistribution in interdependent Watts-Strogatz (WS) networks. The effects of rewiring probability and coupling strength on the resilience of interdependent WS networks have been extensively investigated. It has been found that, for small values of the tolerance parameter, interdependent networks are more vulnerable as rewiring probability increases. For larger values of the tolerance parameter, the robustness of interdependent networks firstly decreases and then increases as rewiring probability increases. Coupling strength has a different impact on robustness. For low values of coupling strength, the resilience of interdependent networks decreases with the increment of the coupling strength until it reaches a certain threshold value. For values of coupling strength above this threshold, the opposite effect is observed. Our results are helpful to understand and design resilient interdependent networks.

Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2016-07-01

Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover, generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.

Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chakraborty, Souvik, E-mail: csouvik41@gmail.com; Chowdhury, Rajib, E-mail: rajibfce@iitr.ac.in

Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover,more » generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.« less

Security threat assessment of an Internet security system using attack tree and vague sets.

PubMed

Chang, Kuei-Hu

2014-01-01

Security threat assessment of the Internet security system has become a greater concern in recent years because of the progress and diversification of information technology. Traditionally, the failure probabilities of bottom events of an Internet security system are treated as exact values when the failure probability of the entire system is estimated. However, security threat assessment when the malfunction data of the system's elementary event are incomplete--the traditional approach for calculating reliability--is no longer applicable. Moreover, it does not consider the failure probability of the bottom events suffered in the attack, which may bias conclusions. In order to effectively solve the problem above, this paper proposes a novel technique, integrating attack tree and vague sets for security threat assessment. For verification of the proposed approach, a numerical example of an Internet security system security threat assessment is adopted in this paper. The result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of security threat assessment methods.

Failure modes for pipelines in landslide areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruschi, R.; Spinazze, M.; Tomassini, D.

1995-12-31

In recent years a number of incidences of pipelines affected by slow soil movements have been reported in the relevant literature. Further related issues such as soil-pipe interaction have been studied both theoretically and through experimental surveys, along with the environmental conditions which are responsible for hazard to the pipeline integrity. A suitable design criteria under these circumstances has been discussed by several authors, in particular in relation to a limit state approach and hence a strain based criteria. The scope of this paper is to describe the failure mechanisms which may affect the pipeline in the presence of slowmore » soil movements impacting on the pipeline, both in the longitudinal and transverse direction. Particular attention is paid to environmental, geometric and structural parameters which steer the process towards one or other failure mechanism. Criteria for deciding upon remedial measures required to guarantee the structural integrity of the pipeline, both in the short and in the long term, are discussed.« less

Interactive effects of temperature, organic carbon, and pipe material on microbiota composition and Legionella pneumophila in hot water plumbing systems.

PubMed

Proctor, Caitlin R; Dai, Dongjuan; Edwards, Marc A; Pruden, Amy

2017-10-04

Several biotic and abiotic factors have been reported to influence the proliferation of microbes, including Legionella pneumophila, in hot water premise plumbing systems, but their combined effects have not been systematically evaluated. Here, we utilize simulated household water heaters to examine the effects of stepwise increases in temperature (32-53 °C), pipe material (copper vs. cross-linked polyethylene (PEX)), and influent assimilable organic carbon (0-700 μg/L) on opportunistic pathogen gene copy numbers and the microbiota composition, as determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Temperature had an overarching influence on both the microbiota composition and L. pneumophila numbers. L. pneumophila peaked at 41 °C in the presence of PEX (1.58 × 10 5 gene copies/mL). At 53 °C, L. pneumophila was not detected. Several operational taxonomic units (OTUs) persisted across all conditions, accounting for 50% of the microbiota composition from 32 to 49 °C and 20% at 53 °C. Pipe material most strongly influenced microbiota composition at lower temperatures, driven by five to six OTUs enriched with each material. Copper pipes supported less L. pneumophila than PEX pipes (mean 2.5 log 10 lower) at temperatures ≤ 41 °C, but showed no difference in total bacterial numbers. Differences between pipe materials diminished with elevated temperature, probably resulting from decreased release of copper ions. At temperatures ≤ 45 °C, influent assimilable organic carbon correlated well with total bacterial numbers, but not with L. pneumophila numbers. At 53 °C, PEX pipes leached organic carbon, reducing the importance of dosed organic carbon. L. pneumophila numbers correlated with a Legionella OTU and a Methylophilus OTU identified by amplicon sequencing. Temperature was the most effective factor for the control of L. pneumophila, while microbiota composition shifted with each stepwise temperature increase. While copper pipe may also help shape the microbiota composition and limit L. pneumophila proliferation, its benefits might be constrained at higher temperatures. Influent assimilable organic carbon affected total bacterial numbers, but had minimal influence on opportunistic pathogen gene numbers or microbiota composition. These findings provide guidance among multiple control measures for the growth of opportunistic pathogens in hot water plumbing and insight into the mediating role of microbial ecological factors.

Piped water supply interruptions and acute diarrhea among under-five children in Addis Ababa slums, Ethiopia: A matched case-control study.

PubMed

Adane, Metadel; Mengistie, Bezatu; Medhin, Girmay; Kloos, Helmut; Mulat, Worku

2017-01-01

The problem of intermittent piped water supplies that exists in low- and middle-income countries is particularly severe in the slums of sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about whether there is deterioration of the microbiological quality of the intermittent piped water supply at a household level and whether it is a factor in reducing or increasing the occurrence of acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. This study aimed to determine the association of intermittent piped water supplies and point-of-use (POU) contamination of household stored water by Escherichia coli (E. coli) with acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. A community-based matched case-control study was conducted from November to December, 2014. Cases were defined as under-five children with acute diarrhea during the two weeks before the survey. Controls were matched by age and neighborhood with cases by individual matching. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire and E. coli analysis of water from piped water supplies and household stored water. A five-tube method of Most Probable Number (MPN)/100 ml standard procedure was used for E. coli analysis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used for data analysis by controlling potential confounding effects of selected socio-demographic characteristics. During the two weeks before the survey, 87.9% of case households and 51.0% of control households had an intermittent piped water supply for an average of 4.3 days and 3.9 days, respectively. POU contamination of household stored water by E. coli was found in 83.3% of the case households, and 52.1% of the control households. In a fully adjusted model, a periodically intermittent piped water supply (adjusted matched odds ratio (adjusted mOR) = 4.8; 95% CI: 1.3-17.8), POU water contamination in household stored water by E. coli (adjusted mOR = 3.3; 95% CI: 1.1-10.1), water retrieved from water storage containers using handle-less vessels (adjusted mOR = 16.3; 95% CI: 4.4-60.1), and water retrieved by interchangeably using vessels both with and without handle (adjusted mOR = 5.4; 95% CI: 1.1-29.1) were independently associated with acute diarrhea. We conclude that provision of continuously available piped water supplies and education of caregivers about proper water retrieval methods of household stored water can effectively reduce POU contamination of water at the household level and thereby reduce acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. Promotion of household water treatment is also highly encouraged until the City's water authority is able to deliver continuously available piped water supplies.

Predicting Quarantine Failure Rates

PubMed Central

2004-01-01

Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases. PMID:15109418

Further examination of embedded performance validity indicators for the Conners' Continuous Performance Test and Brief Test of Attention in a large outpatient clinical sample.

PubMed

Sharland, Michael J; Waring, Stephen C; Johnson, Brian P; Taran, Allise M; Rusin, Travis A; Pattock, Andrew M; Palcher, Jeanette A

2018-01-01

Assessing test performance validity is a standard clinical practice and although studies have examined the utility of cognitive/memory measures, few have examined attention measures as indicators of performance validity beyond the Reliable Digit Span. The current study further investigates the classification probability of embedded Performance Validity Tests (PVTs) within the Brief Test of Attention (BTA) and the Conners' Continuous Performance Test (CPT-II), in a large clinical sample. This was a retrospective study of 615 patients consecutively referred for comprehensive outpatient neuropsychological evaluation. Non-credible performance was defined two ways: failure on one or more PVTs and failure on two or more PVTs. Classification probability of the BTA and CPT-II into non-credible groups was assessed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were derived to identify clinically relevant cut-off scores. When using failure on two or more PVTs as the indicator for non-credible responding compared to failure on one or more PVTs, highest classification probability, or area under the curve (AUC), was achieved by the BTA (AUC = .87 vs. .79). CPT-II Omission, Commission, and Total Errors exhibited higher classification probability as well. Overall, these findings corroborate previous findings, extending them to a large clinical sample. BTA and CPT-II are useful embedded performance validity indicators within a clinical battery but should not be used in isolation without other performance validity indicators.

Estimating dynamic permeability in fractal pore network saturated by Maxwellian fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, W.

2017-12-01

The frequency dependent flow of fluid in porous media is an important issue in geophysical prospecting. Oscillating flow in pipe leads to frequency dependent dynamic permeability and has been studied in pore network containing Newtonian fluid. But there is little work on oscillating complex fluid in pipe network, especially in irregular network. Here we formulated frequency dependent permeability for Maxwellian fluid and estimated the permeability in three-dimensional fractal network model. We consider an infinitely long cylindrical pipe with rigid solid wall. The pipe is filled with Maxwellian fluids. Based on the mass conservation equation, the equilibrium equation of force and Maxwell constitutive relationship, we formulated the flux by integration of axial velocity component over the pipe's cross section. Then we extend single pipe formulation to a 3D irregular network. Flux balance condition yields a set of linear equations whose unknowns are the fluid pressure at each node. By evaluating the total flow flux through the network, the dynamic permeability can be calculated.We investigated the dynamic permeability of brine and CPyCl/NaSal in a 3D porous sample with a cubic side length 1 cm. The pore network is created by a Voronoi cell filling method. The porosity, i.e., volume ratio between pore/pipe network and the overall cubic, is set as 0.1. The irregular pore network has a fractal structure. The dimension d of the pore network is defined by the relation between node number M within a sphere and the radius r of the sphere,M=rd.The results show that both brine and Maxwellian fluid's permeability maintain a stable value at low frequency, then decreases with fluctuating peaks. The dynamic permeability in pore networks saturated by Maxwellian fluid (CPyCl/NaSal (60 mM)) show larger peaks during the decline process at high frequency, which represents the typical resonance behavior. Dynamic permeability shows clear dependence on the dimension of the fractal network. Small-scale network has higher dimension than large-scale networks. The reason is that in larger networks pore and inter-pore connections are so dense that the probability P(r) to have a neighboring pore at distance r decays faster. The proposed model may be used to explain velocity dispersion in unconventional reservoir rocks observed in laboratory.

Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, R.S.; Barka, A.A.; Dieterich, J.H.

1997-01-01

10 M ??? 6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939-1992, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. We use the mapped surface slip and fault geometry to infer the transfer of stress throughout the sequence. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that nine out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 1-10 bar, equivalent to 3-30 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability gains using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. The transient effects of the stress changes dominate during the mean 10 yr period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence. The stress changes result in an average three-fold gain in the net earthquake probability during the decade after each event. Stress is calculated to be high today at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15 per cent probability of a M ??? 6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern centre of Ercinzan, and a 12 per cent probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere.

Differentiated protection services with failure probability guarantee for workflow-based applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Jin, Yaohui; Sun, Weiqiang; Hu, Weisheng

2010-12-01

A cost-effective and service-differentiated provisioning strategy is very desirable to service providers so that they can offer users satisfactory services, while optimizing network resource allocation. Providing differentiated protection services to connections for surviving link failure has been extensively studied in recent years. However, the differentiated protection services for workflow-based applications, which consist of many interdependent tasks, have scarcely been studied. This paper investigates the problem of providing differentiated services for workflow-based applications in optical grid. In this paper, we develop three differentiated protection services provisioning strategies which can provide security level guarantee and network-resource optimization for workflow-based applications. The simulation demonstrates that these heuristic algorithms provide protection cost-effectively while satisfying the applications' failure probability requirements.

The Application of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Methodology to Intrathecal Drug Delivery for Pain Management

PubMed Central

Patel, Teresa; Fisher, Stanley P.

2016-01-01

Objective This study aimed to utilize failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to transform clinical insights into a risk mitigation plan for intrathecal (IT) drug delivery in pain management. Methods The FMEA methodology, which has been used for quality improvement, was adapted to assess risks (i.e., failure modes) associated with IT therapy. Ten experienced pain physicians scored 37 failure modes in the following categories: patient selection for therapy initiation (efficacy and safety concerns), patient safety during IT therapy, and product selection for IT therapy. Participants assigned severity, probability, and detection scores for each failure mode, from which a risk priority number (RPN) was calculated. Failure modes with the highest RPNs (i.e., most problematic) were discussed, and strategies were proposed to mitigate risks. Results Strategic discussions focused on 17 failure modes with the most severe outcomes, the highest probabilities of occurrence, and the most challenging detection. The topic of the highest‐ranked failure mode (RPN = 144) was manufactured monotherapy versus compounded combination products. Addressing failure modes associated with appropriate patient and product selection was predicted to be clinically important for the success of IT therapy. Conclusions The methodology of FMEA offers a systematic approach to prioritizing risks in a complex environment such as IT therapy. Unmet needs and information gaps are highlighted through the process. Risk mitigation and strategic planning to prevent and manage critical failure modes can contribute to therapeutic success. PMID:27477689

Floods of June 4 and 12, 1976, at Culbertson, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.V.

1978-01-01

Runoff from rainfall caused flooding in the town of Culbertson, Montana, on June 4 and 12, 1976. Flood damage was mostly to business and residential structures within Culberston. Two small drainage contributed the peak flows, which at one site exceeded 1,200 cubic feet per second per square mile of contributing area. Flow from the Missouri River tributary No 5 at Culbertson consisted of flow through a pipe-arch at the State Highway 16 crossing and flow that overtopped the right bank of the main channel. Maximum combined pipe-arch and bypass flow for the June 12 flood was 1,30030 cubic feet per second. Flow from Diamond Creek consisted of flow through a culvert at the U.S. Highway 2 crossing west of Culbertson and flow that overtopped a road. Maximum combined culvert and bypass flow for the June 4 flood was 1,320 cubic feet per second. Failure of small dam increased the flow volume of the flood.

Design of Boiler Welding for Improvement of Lifetime and Cost Control.

PubMed

Thong-On, Atcharawadi; Boonruang, Chatdanai

2016-11-03

Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo a widely used material for headers and steam tubes of boilers. Welding of steam tube to header is required for production of boiler. Heat affected zone of the weld can have poor mechanical properties and poor corrosion behavior leading to weld failure. The cost of material used for steam tube and header of boiler should be controlled. This study propose a new materials design for boiler welding to improve the lifetime and cost control, using tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding of Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo tube to carbon steel pipe with chromium-containing filler. The cost of production could be reduced by the use of low cost material such as carbon steel pipe for boiler header. The effect of chromium content on corrosion behavior of the weld was greater than that of the microstructure. The lifetime of the welded boiler can be increased by improvement of mechanical properties and corrosion behavior of the heat affected zone.

Design of Boiler Welding for Improvement of Lifetime and Cost Control

PubMed Central

Thong-On, Atcharawadi; Boonruang, Chatdanai

2016-01-01

Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo a widely used material for headers and steam tubes of boilers. Welding of steam tube to header is required for production of boiler. Heat affected zone of the weld can have poor mechanical properties and poor corrosion behavior leading to weld failure. The cost of material used for steam tube and header of boiler should be controlled. This study propose a new materials design for boiler welding to improve the lifetime and cost control, using tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding of Fe-2.25Cr-1Mo tube to carbon steel pipe with chromium-containing filler. The cost of production could be reduced by the use of low cost material such as carbon steel pipe for boiler header. The effect of chromium content on corrosion behavior of the weld was greater than that of the microstructure. The lifetime of the welded boiler can be increased by improvement of mechanical properties and corrosion behavior of the heat affected zone. PMID:28774014

A Numerical Round Robin for the Reliability Prediction of Structural Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.

1993-01-01

A round robin has been conducted on integrated fast fracture design programs for brittle materials. An informal working group (WELFEP-WEakest Link failure probability prediction by Finite Element Postprocessors) was formed to discuss and evaluate the implementation of the programs examined in the study. Results from the study have provided insight on the differences between the various programs examined. Conclusions from the study have shown that when brittle materials are used in design, analysis must understand how to apply the concepts presented herein to failure probability analysis.

Thermal anomalies of the transmitter experiment package on the communications technology satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexovich, R. E.; Curren, A. N.

1979-01-01

The causes of four temporary thermal-control-system malfunctions that gave rise to unexpected temperature excursions in the 12-gigahertz, 200-watt transmitter experiment package (TEP) on the Communications Technology Satellite were investigated. The TEP consists of a nominal 200-watt output stage tube (OST), a supporting power-processing system (PPS), and a variable-conductance heat-pipe system (VCHPS). The VCHPS, which uses three heat pipes to conduct heat from the body of the OST to a radiator fin, was designed to maintain the TEP at safe operating temperatures at all operating conditions. On four occasions during 1977, all near the spring and fall equinoxes, the OST body temperature and related temperatures displayed sudden, rapid, and unexpected rises above normal levels while the TEP was operating at essentially constant, normal conditions. The temperature excursions were terminated without TEP damage by reducing the radio frequency (RF) output power of the OST. Between the anomalies and since the fourth, the thermal control system has apparently functioned as designed. The results indicate the most probable cause of the temperature anomalies is depriming of the arteries in the variable-conductance heat pipes. A mode was identified in which the TEP, as presently configured, may operate with stable temperatures and with minimum change in performance level.

Mechanical Expansion of Steel Tubing as a Solution to Leaky Wellbores

PubMed Central

Radonjic, Mileva; Kupresan, Darko

2014-01-01

Wellbore cement, a procedural component of wellbore completion operations, primarily provides zonal isolation and mechanical support of the metal pipe (casing), and protects metal components from corrosive fluids. These are essential for uncompromised wellbore integrity. Cements can undergo multiple forms of failure, such as debonding at the cement/rock and cement/metal interfaces, fracturing, and defects within the cement matrix. Failures and defects within the cement will ultimately lead to fluid migration, resulting in inter-zonal fluid migration and premature well abandonment. Currently, there are over 1.8 million operating wells worldwide and over one third of these wells have leak related problems defined as Sustained Casing Pressure (SCP)1. The focus of this research was to develop an experimental setup at bench-scale to explore the effect of mechanical manipulation of wellbore casing-cement composite samples as a potential technology for the remediation of gas leaks. The experimental methodology utilized in this study enabled formation of an impermeable seal at the pipe/cement interface in a simulated wellbore system. Successful nitrogen gas flow-through measurements demonstrated that an existing microannulus was sealed at laboratory experimental conditions and fluid flow prevented by mechanical manipulation of the metal/cement composite sample. Furthermore, this methodology can be applied not only for the remediation of leaky wellbores, but also in plugging and abandonment procedures as well as wellbore completions technology, and potentially preventing negative impacts of wellbores on subsurface and surface environments. PMID:25490436

Mechanical expansion of steel tubing as a solution to leaky wellbores.

PubMed

Radonjic, Mileva; Kupresan, Darko

2014-11-20

Wellbore cement, a procedural component of wellbore completion operations, primarily provides zonal isolation and mechanical support of the metal pipe (casing), and protects metal components from corrosive fluids. These are essential for uncompromised wellbore integrity. Cements can undergo multiple forms of failure, such as debonding at the cement/rock and cement/metal interfaces, fracturing, and defects within the cement matrix. Failures and defects within the cement will ultimately lead to fluid migration, resulting in inter-zonal fluid migration and premature well abandonment. Currently, there are over 1.8 million operating wells worldwide and over one third of these wells have leak related problems defined as Sustained Casing Pressure (SCP). The focus of this research was to develop an experimental setup at bench-scale to explore the effect of mechanical manipulation of wellbore casing-cement composite samples as a potential technology for the remediation of gas leaks. The experimental methodology utilized in this study enabled formation of an impermeable seal at the pipe/cement interface in a simulated wellbore system. Successful nitrogen gas flow-through measurements demonstrated that an existing microannulus was sealed at laboratory experimental conditions and fluid flow prevented by mechanical manipulation of the metal/cement composite sample. Furthermore, this methodology can be applied not only for the remediation of leaky wellbores, but also in plugging and abandonment procedures as well as wellbore completions technology, and potentially preventing negative impacts of wellbores on subsurface and surface environments.

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications.

A Probability Problem from Real Life: The Tire Exploded.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartlett, Albert A.

1993-01-01

Discusses the probability of seeing a tire explode or disintegrate while traveling down the highway. Suggests that a person observing 10 hours a day would see a failure on the average of once every 300 years. (MVL)

The Failure Models of Lead Free Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu Solder Joint Reliability Under Low-G and High-G Drop Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Jian; Lei, YongPing; Lin, Jian; Fu, HanGuang; Wu, Zhongwei

2017-02-01

The reliability of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu (SAC 305) solder joint under a broad level of drop impacts was studied. The failure performance of solder joint, failure probability and failure position were analyzed under two shock test conditions, i.e., 1000 g for 1 ms and 300 g for 2 ms. The stress distribution on the solder joint was calculated by ABAQUS. The results revealed that the dominant reason was the tension due to the difference in stiffness between the print circuit board and ball grid array, and the maximum tension of 121.1 MPa and 31.1 MPa, respectively, under both 1000 g or 300 g drop impact, was focused on the corner of the solder joint which was located in the outmost corner of the solder ball row. The failure modes were summarized into the following four modes: initiation and propagation through the (1) intermetallic compound layer, (2) Ni layer, (3) Cu pad, or (4) Sn-matrix. The outmost corner of the solder ball row had a high failure probability under both 1000 g and 300 g drop impact. The number of failures of solder ball under the 300 g drop impact was higher than that under the 1000 g drop impact. The characteristic drop values for failure were 41 and 15,199, respectively, following the statistics.

Development of a New Design Procedure for Overland Flow System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-18

reactor kinetics, a concept familiar to most environmental engi- neers. In the case of overland flow, the reactor is the soil surface where various physical...site during the entire study. Perforated plastic pipe was used to distri- bute wastewater along the top of each section, and a bed of crushed stone...particulate BOD. The soluble BOD is oxidized by microorganisms which are probably similar to the attached biomass found in trickling filters. However, some

Acute aluminum encephalopathy in a dialysis center caused by a cement mortar water distribution pipe.

PubMed

Berend, K; van der Voet, G; Boer, W H

2001-02-01

In Curaçao, distilled seawater from the water plant was used without further purification for hemodialysis for several decades. A new distribution pipe supplying water to a dialysis center on the island was installed in May 1996. To protect it from corrosion, this pipe was lined on the inside with a cement mortar. Because of the aggressiveness of the distilled water, calcium and aluminum (Al) leached from the cement mortar into the water used to prepare dialysate. This caused a possible hard water syndrome and definite acute Al intoxication. We reviewed clinical details and outcome at follow-up, and arranged laboratory and toxicological studies of serum and hemodialysis water. Of the 27 patients who had a similar exposure ( approximately 60 hours) to the contaminated dialysate, 10 died from acute Al encephalopathy, whereas 17 patients had no or only minor symptoms and survived. The nonsurvivors were older (64 +/- 3 years vs. 52 +/- 2 years, P < 0.01) and had a lower body weight (57.5 +/- 5.9 kg vs. 86.5 +/- 4.1 kg, P < 0.01) and lower serum albumin concentrations (33 +/- 1 vs. 36 +/- 1 g/L, P < 0.01). Anuria tended to be more common in the nonsurvivors (8 out of 10 vs. 8 out of 17, P> 0.05). Serum Al concentrations, available in seven nonsurvivors, were significantly higher than in the survivors (808 +/- 127 vs. 255 +/- 25 microg/L, P < 0.01). The water distribution pipe was lined with a cement mortar that was probably inappropriate for transporting drinking water. Water distribution facilities as well as the dialysis community should be aware of the possibility of Al leaching from cemented water distribution pipes. Similar Al loads appear to induce a more severe intoxication in malnourished, older patients with smaller Al distribution volumes and anuria.

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-01-01

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-10-01

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

The use of supercomputer modelling of high-temperature failure in pipe weldments to optimize weld and heat affected zone materials property selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. P.; Hayhurst, D. R.

1994-07-01

The creep deformation and damage evolution in a pipe weldment has been modeled by using the finite-element continuum damage mechanics (CDM) method. The finite-element CDM computer program DAMAGE XX has been adapted to run with increased speed on a Cray XMP/416 supercomputer. Run times are sufficiently short (20 min) to permit many parametric studies to be carried out on vessel lifetimes for different weld and heat affected zone (HAZ) materials. Finite-element mesh sensitivity was studied first in order to select a mesh capable of correctly predicting experimentally observed results using at least possible computer time. A study was then made of the effect on the lifetime of a butt welded vessel of each of the commomly measured material parameters for the weld and HAZ materials. Forty different ferritic steel welded vessels were analyzed for a constant internal pressure of 45.5 MPa at a temperature of 565 C; each vessel having the same parent pipe material but different weld and HAZ materials. A lifetime improvement has been demonstrated of 30% over that obtained for the initial materials property data. A methodology for weldment design has been established which uses supercomputer-based CDM analysis techniques; it is quick to use, provides accurate results, and is a viable design tool.

Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

Analysis of the material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system is necessary to understand the limits and vulnerabilities of the system to internal threats. A self-appraisal helps the facility be prepared to respond to internal threats and reduce the risk of theft or diversion of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) fault tree was developed to depict the failure of the MPC&A system as a result of poor practices and random failures in the MC&A system. It can also be employed as a basis for assessing deliberate threats against a facility. MSET uses faultmore » tree analysis, which is a top-down approach to examining system failure. The analysis starts with identifying a potential undesirable event called a 'top event' and then determining the ways it can occur (e.g., 'Fail To Maintain Nuclear Materials Under The Purview Of The MC&A System'). The analysis proceeds by determining how the top event can be caused by individual or combined lower level faults or failures. These faults, which are the causes of the top event, are 'connected' through logic gates. The MSET model uses AND-gates and OR-gates and propagates the effect of event failure using Boolean algebra. To enable the fault tree analysis calculations, the basic events in the fault tree are populated with probability risk values derived by conversion of questionnaire data to numeric values. The basic events are treated as independent variables. This assumption affects the Boolean algebraic calculations used to calculate results. All the necessary calculations are built into the fault tree codes, but it is often useful to estimate the probabilities manually as a check on code functioning. The probability of failure of a given basic event is the probability that the basic event primary question fails to meet the performance metric for that question. The failure probability is related to how well the facility performs the task identified in that basic event over time (not just one performance or exercise). Fault tree calculations provide a failure probability for the top event in the fault tree. The basic fault tree calculations establish a baseline relative risk value for the system. This probability depicts relative risk, not absolute risk. Subsequent calculations are made to evaluate the change in relative risk that would occur if system performance is improved or degraded. During the development effort of MSET, the fault tree analysis program used was SAPHIRE. SAPHIRE is an acronym for 'Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations.' Version 1 of the SAPHIRE code was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1987 as an innovative way to draw, edit, and analyze graphical fault trees primarily for safe operation of nuclear power reactors. When the fault tree calculations are performed, the fault tree analysis program will produce several reports that can be used to analyze the MPC&A system. SAPHIRE produces reports showing risk importance factors for all basic events in the operational MC&A system. The risk importance information is used to examine the potential impacts when performance of certain basic events increases or decreases. The initial results produced by the SAPHIRE program are considered relative risk values. None of the results can be interpreted as absolute risk values since the basic event probability values represent estimates of risk associated with the performance of MPC&A tasks throughout the material balance area (MBA). The RRR for a basic event represents the decrease in total system risk that would result from improvement of that one event to a perfect performance level. Improvement of the basic event with the greatest RRR value produces a greater decrease in total system risk than improvement of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk reduction are assigned performance improvement values, and new fault tree calculations show the improvement in total system risk. The operational impact or cost-effectiveness from implementing the performance improvements can then be evaluated. The improvements being evaluated can be system performance improvements, or they can be potential, or actual, upgrades to the system. The RIR for a basic event represents the increase in total system risk that would result from failure of that one event. Failure of the basic event with the greatest RIR value produces a greater increase in total system risk than failure of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk increase are assigned failure performance values, and new fault tree calculations show the increase in total system risk. This evaluation shows the importance of preventing performance degradation of the basic events. SAPHIRE identifies combinations of basic events where concurrent failure of the events results in failure of the top event.« less

A cost simulation for mammography examinations taking into account equipment failures and resource utilization characteristics.

PubMed

Coelli, Fernando C; Almeida, Renan M V R; Pereira, Wagner C A

2010-12-01

This work develops a cost analysis estimation for a mammography clinic, taking into account resource utilization and equipment failure rates. Two standard clinic models were simulated, the first with one mammography equipment, two technicians and one doctor, and the second (based on an actually functioning clinic) with two equipments, three technicians and one doctor. Cost data and model parameters were obtained by direct measurements, literature reviews and other hospital data. A discrete-event simulation model was developed, in order to estimate the unit cost (total costs/number of examinations in a defined period) of mammography examinations at those clinics. The cost analysis considered simulated changes in resource utilization rates and in examination failure probabilities (failures on the image acquisition system). In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed, taking into account changes in the probabilities of equipment failure types. For the two clinic configurations, the estimated mammography unit costs were, respectively, US$ 41.31 and US$ 53.46 in the absence of examination failures. As the examination failures increased up to 10% of total examinations, unit costs approached US$ 54.53 and US$ 53.95, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that type 3 (the most serious) failure increases had a very large impact on the patient attendance, up to the point of actually making attendance unfeasible. Discrete-event simulation allowed for the definition of the more efficient clinic, contingent on the expected prevalence of resource utilization and equipment failures. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Carter, Katrina; DiFilippo, Denise; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; Lutomski, Michael

2012-01-01

There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

PubMed

Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

2017-09-12

Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

Improving online risk assessment with equipment prognostics and health monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coble, Jamie B.; Liu, Xiaotong; Briere, Chris

The current approach to evaluating the risk of nuclear power plant (NPP) operation relies on static probabilities of component failure, which are based on industry experience with the existing fleet of nominally similar light water reactors (LWRs). As the nuclear industry looks to advanced reactor designs that feature non-light water coolants (e.g., liquid metal, high temperature gas, molten salt), this operating history is not available. Many advanced reactor designs use advanced components, such as electromagnetic pumps, that have not been used in the US commercial nuclear fleet. Given the lack of rich operating experience, we cannot accurately estimate the evolvingmore » probability of failure for basic components to populate the fault trees and event trees that typically comprise probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. Online equipment prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies can bridge this gap to estimate the failure probabilities for components under operation. The enhanced risk monitor (ERM) incorporates equipment condition assessment into the existing PRA and risk monitor framework to provide accurate and timely estimates of operational risk.« less

Statistical Performance Evaluation Of Soft Seat Pressure Relief Valves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, Stephen P.; Gross, Robert E.

2013-03-26

Risk-based inspection methods enable estimation of the probability of failure on demand for spring-operated pressure relief valves at the United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina. This paper presents a statistical performance evaluation of soft seat spring operated pressure relief valves. These pressure relief valves are typically smaller and of lower cost than hard seat (metal to metal) pressure relief valves and can provide substantial cost savings in fluid service applications (air, gas, liquid, and steam) providing that probability of failure on demand (the probability that the pressure relief valve fails to perform its intendedmore » safety function during a potentially dangerous over pressurization) is at least as good as that for hard seat valves. The research in this paper shows that the proportion of soft seat spring operated pressure relief valves failing is the same or less than that of hard seat valves, and that for failed valves, soft seat valves typically have failure ratios of proof test pressure to set pressure less than that of hard seat valves.« less

Increasing Compliance of Children with Autism: Effects of Programmed Reinforcement for High-Probability Requests and Varied Inter-Instruction Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pitts, Laura; Dymond, Simon

2012-01-01

Research on the high-probability (high-p) request sequence shows that compliance with low-probability (low-p) requests generally increases when preceded by a series of high-p requests. Few studies have conducted formal preference assessments to identify the consequences used for compliance, which may partly explain treatment failures, and still…

A dual-mode generalized likelihood ratio approach to self-reorganizing digital flight control system design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bueno, R.; Chow, E.; Gershwin, S. B.; Willsky, A. S.

1975-01-01

The research is reported on the problems of failure detection and reliable system design for digital aircraft control systems. Failure modes, cross detection probability, wrong time detection, application of performance tools, and the GLR computer package are discussed.

A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellsworth, William L.; Matthews, Mark V.; Nadeau, Robert M.; Nishenko, Stuart P.; Reasenberg, Paul A.; Simpson, Robert W.

1999-01-01

A physically-motivated model for earthquake recurrence based on the Brownian relaxation oscillator is introduced. The renewal process defining this point process model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from the ground state to failure threshold as modulated by Brownian motion. Failure times in this model follow the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution, which is specified by the mean time to failure, μ, and the aperiodicity of the mean, α (equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation). Analysis of 37 series of recurrent earthquakes, M -0.7 to 9.2, suggests a provisional generic value of α = 0.5. For this value of α, the hazard function (instantaneous failure rate of survivors) exceeds the mean rate for times > μ⁄2, and is ~ ~ 2 ⁄ μ for all times > μ. Application of this model to the next M 6 earthquake on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California suggests that the annual probability of the earthquake is between 1:10 and 1:13.

Piped water supply interruptions and acute diarrhea among under-five children in Addis Ababa slums, Ethiopia: A matched case-control study

PubMed Central

Adane, Metadel; Mengistie, Bezatu; Medhin, Girmay; Kloos, Helmut; Mulat, Worku

2017-01-01

Background The problem of intermittent piped water supplies that exists in low- and middle-income countries is particularly severe in the slums of sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about whether there is deterioration of the microbiological quality of the intermittent piped water supply at a household level and whether it is a factor in reducing or increasing the occurrence of acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. This study aimed to determine the association of intermittent piped water supplies and point-of-use (POU) contamination of household stored water by Escherichia coli (E. coli) with acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. Methods A community-based matched case-control study was conducted from November to December, 2014. Cases were defined as under-five children with acute diarrhea during the two weeks before the survey. Controls were matched by age and neighborhood with cases by individual matching. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire and E. coli analysis of water from piped water supplies and household stored water. A five-tube method of Most Probable Number (MPN)/100 ml standard procedure was used for E. coli analysis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used for data analysis by controlling potential confounding effects of selected socio-demographic characteristics. Main findings During the two weeks before the survey, 87.9% of case households and 51.0% of control households had an intermittent piped water supply for an average of 4.3 days and 3.9 days, respectively. POU contamination of household stored water by E. coli was found in 83.3% of the case households, and 52.1% of the control households. In a fully adjusted model, a periodically intermittent piped water supply (adjusted matched odds ratio (adjusted mOR) = 4.8; 95% CI: 1.3–17.8), POU water contamination in household stored water by E. coli (adjusted mOR = 3.3; 95% CI: 1.1–10.1), water retrieved from water storage containers using handle-less vessels (adjusted mOR = 16.3; 95% CI: 4.4–60.1), and water retrieved by interchangeably using vessels both with and without handle (adjusted mOR = 5.4; 95% CI: 1.1–29.1) were independently associated with acute diarrhea. Conclusion We conclude that provision of continuously available piped water supplies and education of caregivers about proper water retrieval methods of household stored water can effectively reduce POU contamination of water at the household level and thereby reduce acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. Promotion of household water treatment is also highly encouraged until the City’s water authority is able to deliver continuously available piped water supplies. PMID:28723927

Disasters as a necessary part of benefit-cost analyses.

PubMed

Mark, R K; Stuart-Alexander, D E

1977-09-16

Benefit-cost analyses for water projects generally have not included the expected costs (residual risk) of low-probability disasters such as dam failures, impoundment-induced earthquakes, and landslides. Analysis of the history of these types of events demonstrates that dam failures are not uncommon and that the probability of a reservoir-triggered earth-quake increases with increasing reservoir depth. Because the expected costs from such events can be significant and risk is project-specific, estimates should be made for each project. The cost of expected damage from a "high-risk" project in an urban area could be comparable to project benefits.

Postflight analysis of the single-axis acoustic system on SPAR VI and recommendations for future flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naumann, R. J.; Oran, W. A.; Whymark, R. R.; Rey, C.

1981-01-01

The single axis acoustic levitator that was flown on SPAR VI malfunctioned. The results of a series of tests, analyses, and investigation of hypotheses that were undertaken to determine the probable cause of failure are presented, together with recommendations for future flights of the apparatus. The most probable causes of the SPAR VI failure were lower than expected sound intensity due to mechanical degradation of the sound source, and an unexpected external force that caused the experiment sample to move radially and eventually be lost from the acoustic energy well.

A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matthews, M.V.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Reasenberg, P.A.

2002-01-01

We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may be much stronger than would be predicted by the "clock change" method and characteristically decay inversely with elapsed time after the perturbation.

Fracture strength and probability of survival of narrow and extra-narrow dental implants after fatigue testing: In vitro and in silico analysis.

PubMed

Bordin, Dimorvan; Bergamo, Edmara T P; Fardin, Vinicius P; Coelho, Paulo G; Bonfante, Estevam A

2017-07-01

To assess the probability of survival (reliability) and failure modes of narrow implants with different diameters. For fatigue testing, 42 implants with the same macrogeometry and internal conical connection were divided, according to diameter, as follows: narrow (Ø3.3×10mm) and extra-narrow (Ø2.9×10mm) (21 per group). Identical abutments were torqued to the implants and standardized maxillary incisor crowns were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT) in water. The use-level probability Weibull curves, and reliability for a mission of 50,000 and 100,000 cycles at 50N, 100, 150 and 180N were calculated. For the finite element analysis (FEA), two virtual models, simulating the samples tested in fatigue, were constructed. Loading at 50N and 100N were applied 30° off-axis at the crown. The von-Mises stress was calculated for implant and abutment. The beta (β) values were: 0.67 for narrow and 1.32 for extra-narrow implants, indicating that failure rates did not increase with fatigue in the former, but more likely were associated with damage accumulation and wear-out failures in the latter. Both groups showed high reliability (up to 97.5%) at 50 and 100N. A decreased reliability was observed for both groups at 150 and 180N (ranging from 0 to 82.3%), but no significant difference was observed between groups. Failure predominantly involved abutment fracture for both groups. FEA at 50N-load, Ø3.3mm showed higher von-Mises stress for abutment (7.75%) and implant (2%) when compared to the Ø2.9mm. There was no significant difference between narrow and extra-narrow implants regarding probability of survival. The failure mode was similar for both groups, restricted to abutment fracture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fishnet model for failure probability tail of nacre-like imbricated lamellar materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Wen; Bažant, Zdeněk P.

2017-12-01

Nacre, the iridescent material of the shells of pearl oysters and abalone, consists mostly of aragonite (a form of CaCO3), a brittle constituent of relatively low strength (≈10 MPa). Yet it has astonishing mean tensile strength (≈150 MPa) and fracture energy (≈350 to 1,240 J/m2). The reasons have recently become well understood: (i) the nanoscale thickness (≈300 nm) of nacre's building blocks, the aragonite lamellae (or platelets), and (ii) the imbricated, or staggered, arrangement of these lamellea, bound by biopolymer layers only ≈25 nm thick, occupying <5% of volume. These properties inspire manmade biomimetic materials. For engineering applications, however, the failure probability of ≤10-6 is generally required. To guarantee it, the type of probability density function (pdf) of strength, including its tail, must be determined. This objective, not pursued previously, is hardly achievable by experiments alone, since >10^8 tests of specimens would be needed. Here we outline a statistical model of strength that resembles a fishnet pulled diagonally, captures the tail of pdf of strength and, importantly, allows analytical safety assessments of nacreous materials. The analysis shows that, in terms of safety, the imbricated lamellar structure provides a major additional advantage—˜10% strength increase at tail failure probability 10^-6 and a 1 to 2 orders of magnitude tail probability decrease at fixed stress. Another advantage is that a high scatter of microstructure properties diminishes the strength difference between the mean and the probability tail, compared with the weakest link model. These advantages of nacre-like materials are here justified analytically and supported by millions of Monte Carlo simulations.

Effect of Progressive Heart Failure on Cerebral Hemodynamics and Monoamine Metabolism in CNS.

PubMed

Mamalyga, M L; Mamalyga, L M

2017-07-01

Compensated and decompensated heart failure are characterized by different associations of disorders in the brain and heart. In compensated heart failure, the blood flow in the common carotid and basilar arteries does not change. Exacerbation of heart failure leads to severe decompensation and is accompanied by a decrease in blood flow in the carotid and basilar arteries. Changes in monoamine content occurring in the brain at different stages of heart failure are determined by various factors. The functional exercise test showed unequal monoamine-synthesizing capacities of the brain in compensated and decompensated heart failure. Reduced capacity of the monoaminergic systems in decompensated heart failure probably leads to overstrain of the central regulatory mechanisms, their gradual exhaustion, and failure of the compensatory mechanisms, which contributes to progression of heart failure.

Failure Investigation of Radiant Platen Superheater Tube of Thermal Power Plant Boiler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, D.; Ray, S.; Mandal, A.; Roy, H.

2015-04-01

This paper highlights a case study of typical premature failure of a radiant platen superheater tube of 210 MW thermal power plant boiler. Visual examination, dimensional measurement and chemical analysis, are conducted as part of the investigations. Apart from these, metallographic analysis and fractography are also conducted to ascertain the probable cause of failure. Finally it has been concluded that the premature failure of the super heater tube can be attributed to localized creep at high temperature. The corrective actions has also been suggested to avoid this type of failure in near future.

Reliability analysis of redundant systems. [a method to compute transition probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. Y.

1974-01-01

A method is proposed to compute the transition probability (the probability of partial or total failure) of parallel redundant system. The effect of geometry of the system, the direction of load, and the degree of redundancy on the probability of complete survival of parachute-like system are also studied. The results show that the probability of complete survival of three-member parachute-like system is very sensitive to the variation of horizontal angle of the load. However, it becomes very insignificant as the degree of redundancy increases.

CPLOAS_2 User Manual.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Helton, Jon C.

2015-05-01

Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems are important parts of the overall operational design of high - consequence systems. In such designs, the SL system is very robust and is intended to permit operation of the entire system under, and only under, intended conditions. In contrast, the WL system is intended to fail in a predictable and irreversible manner under accident conditions and render the entire system inoperable before an accidental operation of the SL system. The likelihood that the WL system will fail to d eactivate the entire system before the SL system fails (i.e., degrades into a configurationmore » that could allow an accidental operation of the entire system) is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). This report describes the Fortran 90 program CPLOAS_2 that implements the following representations for PLOAS for situations in which both link physical properties and link failure properties are time - dependent: (i) failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (ii) failure of any SL before f ailure of any WL, (iii) failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (iv) failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The effects of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty in the definition and numerical evaluation of PLOAS can be included in the calculations performed by CPLOAS_2. Keywords: Aleatory uncertainty, CPLOAS_2, Epistemic uncertainty, Probability of loss of assured safety, Strong link, Uncertainty analysis, Weak link« less

Variations of electric resistance and H2 and Rn emissions of concrete blocks under increasing uniaxial compression

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, C.-Y.; Luo, G.

1990-01-01

Electric resistance and emissions of hydrogen and radon isotopes of concrete (which is somewhat similar to fault-zone materials) under increasing uniaxial compression were continuously monitored to check whether they show any pre- and post-failure changes that may correspond to similar changes reported for earthquakes. The results show that all these parameters generally begin to increase when the applied stresses reach 20% to 90% of the corresponding failure stresses, probably due to the occurrence and growth of dilatant microcracks in the specimens. The prefailure changes have different patterns for different specimens, probably because of differences in spatial and temporal distributions of the microcracks. The resistance shows large co-failure increases, and the gas emissions show large post-failure increases. The post-failure increase of radon persists longer and stays at a higher level than that of hydrogen, suggesting a difference in the emission mechanisms for these two kinds of gases. The H2 increase may be mainly due to chemical reaction at the crack surfaces while they are fresh, whereas the Rn increases may be mainly the result of the increased emanation area of such surfaces. The results suggest that monitoring of resistivity and gas emissions may be useful for predicting earthquakes and failures of concrete structures. ?? 1990 Birkha??user Verlag.

Advances on the Failure Analysis of the Dam-Foundation Interface of Concrete Dams.

PubMed

Altarejos-García, Luis; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Morales-Torres, Adrián

2015-12-02

Failure analysis of the dam-foundation interface in concrete dams is characterized by complexity, uncertainties on models and parameters, and a strong non-linear softening behavior. In practice, these uncertainties are dealt with a well-structured mixture of experience, best practices and prudent, conservative design approaches based on the safety factor concept. Yet, a sound, deep knowledge of some aspects of this failure mode remain unveiled, as they have been offset in practical applications by the use of this conservative approach. In this paper we show a strategy to analyse this failure mode under a reliability-based approach. The proposed methodology of analysis integrates epistemic uncertainty on spatial variability of strength parameters and data from dam monitoring. The purpose is to produce meaningful and useful information regarding the probability of occurrence of this failure mode that can be incorporated in risk-informed dam safety reviews. In addition, relationships between probability of failure and factors of safety are obtained. This research is supported by a more than a decade of intensive professional practice on real world cases and its final purpose is to bring some clarity, guidance and to contribute to the improvement of current knowledge and best practices on such an important dam safety concern.

Prognostic Factors in Severe Chagasic Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Costa, Sandra de Araújo; Rassi, Salvador; Freitas, Elis Marra da Madeira; Gutierrez, Natália da Silva; Boaventura, Fabiana Miranda; Sampaio, Larissa Pereira da Costa; Silva, João Bastista Masson

2017-01-01

Background Prognostic factors are extensively studied in heart failure; however, their role in severe Chagasic heart failure have not been established. Objectives To identify the association of clinical and laboratory factors with the prognosis of severe Chagasic heart failure, as well as the association of these factors with mortality and survival in a 7.5-year follow-up. Methods 60 patients with severe Chagasic heart failure were evaluated regarding the following variables: age, blood pressure, ejection fraction, serum sodium, creatinine, 6-minute walk test, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, QRS width, indexed left atrial volume, and functional class. Results 53 (88.3%) patients died during follow-up, and 7 (11.7%) remained alive. Cumulative overall survival probability was approximately 11%. Non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (HR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.04 - 4.31; p<0.05) and indexed left atrial volume ≥ 72 mL/m2 (HR = 3.51; 95% CI: 1.63 - 7.52; p<0.05) were the only variables that remained as independent predictors of mortality. Conclusions The presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia on Holter and indexed left atrial volume > 72 mL/m2 are independent predictors of mortality in severe Chagasic heart failure, with cumulative survival probability of only 11% in 7.5 years. PMID:28443956

Advances on the Failure Analysis of the Dam—Foundation Interface of Concrete Dams

PubMed Central

Altarejos-García, Luis; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Morales-Torres, Adrián

2015-01-01

Failure analysis of the dam-foundation interface in concrete dams is characterized by complexity, uncertainties on models and parameters, and a strong non-linear softening behavior. In practice, these uncertainties are dealt with a well-structured mixture of experience, best practices and prudent, conservative design approaches based on the safety factor concept. Yet, a sound, deep knowledge of some aspects of this failure mode remain unveiled, as they have been offset in practical applications by the use of this conservative approach. In this paper we show a strategy to analyse this failure mode under a reliability-based approach. The proposed methodology of analysis integrates epistemic uncertainty on spatial variability of strength parameters and data from dam monitoring. The purpose is to produce meaningful and useful information regarding the probability of occurrence of this failure mode that can be incorporated in risk-informed dam safety reviews. In addition, relationships between probability of failure and factors of safety are obtained. This research is supported by a more than a decade of intensive professional practice on real world cases and its final purpose is to bring some clarity, guidance and to contribute to the improvement of current knowledge and best practices on such an important dam safety concern. PMID:28793709

Results of Performance Tests Performed on the John Watts WW Casing Connection on 7" Pipe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

John D. Watts

2000-02-01

Stress Engineering Services (SES) was contracted by Mr. John Watts to test his ''WW'' threaded connection developed for oilfield oil and gas service. This work was a continuation of testing performed by SES as reported in August of 1999. The connection design tested was identified as ''WW''. The samples were all integral (no coupled connections) and contained a wedge thread form with 90{sup o} flank angles relative to the pipe centerline. The wedge thread form is a variable width thread that primarily engages on the flanks. This thread form provides very high torque capacity and good stabbing ability and makeup.more » The test procedure selected for one of the samples was the newly written ISO 13679 procedure for full scale testing of casing and tubing connections, which is currently going through the ISO acceptance process. The ISO procedure requires a variety of tests that includes makeup/breakout testing, internal gas sealability/external water sealability testing with axial tension, axial compression, bending, internal gas thermal cycle tests and limit load (failure) tests. This test procedure was performed with one sample. Four samples were tested to failure. Table 1 contains a summary of the tasks performed by SES. The project started with the delivery of test samples by Mr. Watts. Pipe from the previous round of tests was used for the new samples. Figure 1 shows the structural and sealing results relative to the pipe body. Sample 1 was used to determine the torque capacity of the connection. Torque was applied to the capacity of SES's equipment which was 28,424 ft-lbs. From this, an initial recommended torque range of 7,200 to 8,800 ft-lbs. was selected. The sample was disassembled and while there was no galling observed in the threads, the end of the pin had collapsed inward. Sample 2 received three makeups. Breakouts 1 and 2 also had collapsing of the pin end, with no thread galling. From these make/breaks, it was decided to reduce the amount of lubricant applied to the connection by applying it to the box or pin only and reducing the amount applied. Samples 3 and 4 received one makeup only. Sample 5 initially received two make/breaks to test for galling resistance before final makeup, No galling was observed. Later, three additional make/breaks were performed with no pin end collapse and galling over 1/2 a thread occurring on one of the breakouts. During the make/break tests, the stabbing and hand tight makeup of the WW connection was found to be very easy and trouble free. There was no tendency to crossthread, even when stabbed at an angle, and it screwed together very smoothly up to hand tight. During power tight makeup, there was no heat generated in the box (as checked by hand contact) and no jerkiness associated with any of the makeups or breakouts. Sample 2 was tested in pure compression. The maximum load obtained was 1,051 kips and the connection was beginning to significantly deform as the sample buckled. Actual pipe yield was 1,226 kips. Sample 3 was capped-end pressure tested to failure. The capped-end yield pressure of the pipe was 16,572 psi and the sample began to leak at 12,000 psi. Sample 4 was tested in pure tension. The maximum load obtained was 978 kips and the connection failed by fracture at the pin critical section. Actual pipe yield was 1,226 kips. Sample 5 was tested in combined tension/compression and internal gas pressure. The sample was assembled, setup and tested four times. The first time was with a torque of 7,298 ft-lbs and the connection leaked halfway to ISO Load Point 2 with loads of 693 kips and 4,312 psi. The second time the torque was increased to 14,488 ft-lbs and a leak occurred at 849 kips and 9,400 psi, which was ISO Load Point 2. The third time the makeup torque was again increased, to 20,456 ft-lbs, and a leak occurred at 716 kips and 11,342 psi, ISO Load Point 4. The fourth test was with the same torque as before, 20,617 ft-lbs, and the connection successfully tested up to load step 56, ISO Load Point 6 (second round) before leaking at 354 kips and 11,876 psi. At this point, time and funds prevented additional testing to be performed.« less

Fatigue analysis of composite materials using the fail-safe concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stievenard, G.

1982-01-01

If R1 is the probability of having a crack on a flight component and R2 is the probability of seeing this crack propagate between two scheduled inspections, the global failure regulation states that this product must not exceed 0.0000001.

MaxEnt analysis of a water distribution network in Canberra, ACT, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldrip, Steven H.; Niven, Robert K.; Abel, Markus; Schlegel, Michael; Noack, Bernd R.

2015-01-01

A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method is developed to infer the state of a pipe flow network, for situations in which there is insufficient information to form a closed equation set. This approach substantially extends existing deterministic methods for the analysis of engineered flow networks (e.g. Newton's method or the Hardy Cross scheme). The network is represented as an undirected graph structure, in which the uncertainty is represented by a continuous relative entropy on the space of internal and external flow rates. The head losses (potential differences) on the network are treated as dependent variables, using specified pipe-flow resistance functions. The entropy is maximised subject to "observable" constraints on the mean values of certain flow rates and/or potential differences, and also "physical" constraints arising from the frictional properties of each pipe and from Kirchhoff's nodal and loop laws. A numerical method is developed in Matlab for solution of the integral equation system, based on multidimensional quadrature. Several nonlinear resistance functions (e.g. power-law and Colebrook) are investigated, necessitating numerical solution of the implicit Lagrangian by a double iteration scheme. The method is applied to a 1123-node, 1140-pipe water distribution network for the suburb of Torrens in the Australian Capital Territory, Australia, using network data supplied by water authority ACTEW Corporation Limited. A number of different assumptions are explored, including various network geometric representations, prior probabilities and constraint settings, yielding useful predictions of network demand and performance. We also propose this methodology be used in conjunction with in-flow monitoring systems, to obtain better inferences of user consumption without large investments in monitoring equipment and maintenance.

Vibration measurements of automobile catalyst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aatola, Seppo

1994-09-01

Vibration of catalyst cell, which is inside the casing of the catalyst, is difficult to measure with usual measuring instrumentation. When catalyst is in use, there is hot exhaust gas flow though the catalyst cell and temperature of the cell is approximately +900 degree(s)C. Therefore non-contact Laser- Doppler-Vibrometer was used to measure vibration velocity of the catalyst cell. The laser beam was directed towards the cell through pipe which was put through and welded to the casing of the catalyst. The outer end of the pipe was screw down with a tempered class to prevent exhaust gas flow from the pipe. The inner end of the pipe was open and few millimeters away from the measuring point. Catalyst was attached to the engine with two ways, rigidly close to the engine and flexible under the engine. The engine was running in test bench under controlled conditions. Vibration measurements were carried out during constant running speeds of the engine. Vibration signals were captured and analyzed with FFT-analyzer. Vibration of catalyst cell was strongest at running speed of 5000 rpm, from 10 to 20 g (1 g equals 9.81 ms-2), when catalyst was attached rigidly close to the engine. At running speed of 3000 rpm, vibration of catalyst cell was from 2 to 3 g in most cases, when catalyst was attached either rigidly or flexible to the engine. It is estimated that in real life, i.e. when catalyst is attached to car with same engine, vibration of catalyst cell at running speed of 5000 rpm is somewhere between 1 and 10 g. At running speed of 3000 rpm, which may be more often used when driving car (car speed approximately 100 kmh-1), vibration of catalyst cell is probably few g's.

Human versus automation in responding to failures: an expected-value analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheridan, T. B.; Parasuraman, R.

2000-01-01

A simple analytical criterion is provided for deciding whether a human or automation is best for a failure detection task. The method is based on expected-value decision theory in much the same way as is signal detection. It requires specification of the probabilities of misses (false negatives) and false alarms (false positives) for both human and automation being considered, as well as factors independent of the choice--namely, costs and benefits of incorrect and correct decisions as well as the prior probability of failure. The method can also serve as a basis for comparing different modes of automation. Some limiting cases of application are discussed, as are some decision criteria other than expected value. Actual or potential applications include the design and evaluation of any system in which either humans or automation are being considered.

Identification of failure type in corroded pipelines: a bayesian probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Breton, T; Sanchez-Gheno, J C; Alamilla, J L; Alvarez-Ramirez, J

2010-07-15

Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should be oriented to reduce increased hazards. This work proposes a bayesian probabilistic approach to identify and predict the type of failure (leakage or rupture) for steel pipelines under realistic corroding conditions. In the first step of the modeling process, the mechanical performance of the pipe is considered for establishing conditions under which either leakage or rupture failure can occur. In the second step, experimental burst tests are used to introduce a mean probabilistic boundary defining a region where the type of failure is uncertain. In the boundary vicinity, the failure discrimination is carried out with a probabilistic model where the events are considered as random variables. In turn, the model parameters are estimated with available experimental data and contrasted with a real catastrophic event, showing good discrimination capacity. The results are discussed in terms of policies oriented to inspection and maintenance of large-size pipelines in the oil and gas industry. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of heat-piping on the initiation and evolution of plate tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosi, N.; Baumeister, P. A.

2017-12-01

The onset of plate tectonics on Earth is believed to be caused by local weakening of the lithosphere. If the convective stress locally exceeds a critical value, a plate-breaking event may occur and initiate plate tectonics. Heat-piping is a heat transport process in which a large amount of melt produced at depth migrates either to the surface (extrusive volcanism) or the base of the crust and lithosphere (intrusive volcanism) due to positive buoyancy and over-pressure in the melting region. As a result of melt being extruded and compacted at the surface or within the crust and lithosphere, cold, near surface material is advected downwards. This mechanism, which effectively cools the mantle, has been proposed to dominate the early phases of the Earth's evolution preventing the onset of plate tectonics by leveling the slope of the lithosphere (e.g. Moore & Webb, 2013, Kankanamge & Moore, 2016). This in turn prevents the formation of lithospheric undulations that are necessary to locally build up sufficient stress to initiate a plate-breaking event. In this work we explore the effects of both extrusive and intrusive heat-piping on the critical yield stress needed to start a plate-breaking event and maintain a regime of surface mobilization over long timescales. We use a two-dimensional cylindrical model of compressible thermal convection. The melt generated at depth is extracted instantaneously according to a defined ratio between extrusive and intrusive volcanism. Extrusive melt is deposited at the surface, whereas intrusive melt is assumed to migrate to a depth dependent on the pressure distribution in the column above the melt region. Considering heat piping tends to increase the episodicity in the mobilization of the surface due to the additional local cooling caused by melt extraction but does not affect significantly the critical yield stress necessary to induce lid failure. Our models indicate that the evolution of plate mobility is a stochastic process, strongly dependent on the choice of the initial conditions. Heat-piping does not seem to be a controlling factor for the onset of plate tectonics.

Diatremes and craters attributed to natural explosions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, Eugene Merle

1956-01-01

Diatremes - volcanic pipes attributed to explosion - and craters have been studied to infer the ultimate causes and physical conditions attending natural explosive processes. Initial piercement of diatremes on the Navajo reservation, Arizona was probably along a fracture propagated by a high-pressure aqueous fluid. Gas rising at high velocity along the fracture would become converted to a gas-solid fluidized system by entrainment of wall- rock fragments. The first stages of widening of the vent are probably accomplished mainly by simple abrasion of the high-velocity fluidized system on the walls of the fracture. As the vent widens, its enlargement may be accelerated by inward spalling of the walls. The inferred mechanics of the Navajo-Hopi diatremes is used to illustrate the possibility of diatreme formation over a molten salt mass.

Corrosion of Advanced Steels: Challenges in the Oil and Gas Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Brajendra; Apelian, Diran

Drill pipe steels are in contact with CO2 and H2S environments, depending on the oil and gas field. These steels have to be resistant to various in-service conditions including aggressive environments containing CO2, H2S, O2, and chlorides, in addition to static and dynamic mechanical stresses. In this respect stress corrosion cracking susceptibility of two grades of drill pipe steel in CO2 environment have been studied simulating the bottom hole oil and gas well conditions. SSRT results show that SCC susceptibility or loss of ductility changes with temperature and increasing temperature increases the loss of ductility. No FeCO3 is observed below 100 °C, and density of FeCO3 is higher in grip section than gauge length and this is due to strain disturbance of growth of iron carbonate crystals. Material selection for down hole in CO2 containing environments needs has been reviewed and probability of SCC occurrence in higher temperatures has been included.

Forgetting induced speeding: Can prospective memory failure account for drivers exceeding the speed limit?

PubMed

Bowden, Vanessa K; Visser, Troy A W; Loft, Shayne

2017-06-01

It is generally assumed that drivers speed intentionally because of factors such as frustration with the speed limit or general impatience. The current study examined whether speeding following an interruption could be better explained by unintentional prospective memory (PM) failure. In these situations, interrupting drivers may create a PM task, with speeding the result of drivers forgetting their newly encoded intention to travel at a lower speed after interruption. Across 3 simulated driving experiments, corrected or uncorrected speeding in recently reduced speed zones (from 70 km/h to 40 km/h) increased on average from 8% when uninterrupted to 33% when interrupted. Conversely, the probability that participants traveled under their new speed limit in recently increased speed zones (from 40 km/h to 70 km/h) increased from 1% when uninterrupted to 23% when interrupted. Consistent with a PM explanation, this indicates that interruptions lead to a general failure to follow changed speed limits, not just to increased speeding. Further testing a PM explanation, Experiments 2 and 3 manipulated variables expected to influence the probability of PM failures and subsequent speeding after interruptions. Experiment 2 showed that performing a cognitively demanding task during the interruption, when compared with unfilled interruptions, increased the probability of initially speeding from 1% to 11%, but that participants were able to correct (reduce) their speed. In Experiment 3, providing participants with 10s longer to encode the new speed limit before interruption decreased the probability of uncorrected speeding after an unfilled interruption from 30% to 20%. Theoretical implications and implications for road design interventions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

neutron-Induced Failures in semiconductor Devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wender, Stephen Arthur

2017-03-13

Single Event Effects are a very significant failure mode in modern semiconductor devices that may limit their reliability. Accelerated testing is important for semiconductor industry. Considerable more work is needed in this field to mitigate the problem. Mitigation of this problem will probably come from Physicists and Electrical Engineers working together

14 CFR 29.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 29.777 and 29.779. (g...

14 CFR 27.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 27.777 and 27.779. (g...

14 CFR 29.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 29.777 and 29.779. (g...

14 CFR 27.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 27.777 and 27.779. (g...

14 CFR 29.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 29.777 and 29.779. (g...

14 CFR 29.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 29.777 and 29.779. (g...

14 CFR 27.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 27.777 and 27.779. (g...

14 CFR 27.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 27.777 and 27.779. (g...

14 CFR 27.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 27.777 and 27.779. (g...

14 CFR 29.729 - Retracting mechanism.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... loads occurring during retraction and extension at any airspeed up to the design maximum landing gear... of— (1) Any reasonably probable failure in the normal retraction system; or (2) The failure of any... location and operation of the retraction control must meet the requirements of §§ 29.777 and 29.779. (g...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebeida, Mohamed S.; Mitchell, Scott A.; Swiler, Laura P.

We introduce a novel technique, POF-Darts, to estimate the Probability Of Failure based on random disk-packing in the uncertain parameter space. POF-Darts uses hyperplane sampling to explore the unexplored part of the uncertain space. We use the function evaluation at a sample point to determine whether it belongs to failure or non-failure regions, and surround it with a protection sphere region to avoid clustering. We decompose the domain into Voronoi cells around the function evaluations as seeds and choose the radius of the protection sphere depending on the local Lipschitz continuity. As sampling proceeds, regions uncovered with spheres will shrink,more » improving the estimation accuracy. After exhausting the function evaluation budget, we build a surrogate model using the function evaluations associated with the sample points and estimate the probability of failure by exhaustive sampling of that surrogate. In comparison to other similar methods, our algorithm has the advantages of decoupling the sampling step from the surrogate construction one, the ability to reach target POF values with fewer samples, and the capability of estimating the number and locations of disconnected failure regions, not just the POF value. Furthermore, we present various examples to demonstrate the efficiency of our novel approach.« less

Groundwater contamination from waste management sites: The interaction between risk-based engineering design and regulatory policy: 1. Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massmann, Joel; Freeze, R. Allan

1987-02-01

This paper puts in place a risk-cost-benefit analysis for waste management facilities that explicitly recognizes the adversarial relationship that exists in a regulated market economy between the owner/operator of a waste management facility and the government regulatory agency under whose terms the facility must be licensed. The risk-cost-benefit analysis is set up from the perspective of the owner/operator. It can be used directly by the owner/operator to assess alternative design strategies. It can also be used by the regulatory agency to assess alternative regulatory policy, but only in an indirect manner, by examining the response of an owner/operator to the stimuli of various policies. The objective function is couched in terms of a discounted stream of benefits, costs, and risks over an engineering time horizon. Benefits are in the form of revenues for services provided; costs are those of construction and operation of the facility. Risk is defined as the cost associated with the probability of failure, with failure defined as the occurrence of a groundwater contamination event that violates the licensing requirements established for the facility. Failure requires a breach of the containment structure and contaminant migration through the hydrogeological environment to a compliance surface. The probability of failure can be estimated on the basis of reliability theory for the breach of containment and with a Monte-Carlo finite-element simulation for the advective contaminant transport. In the hydrogeological environment the hydraulic conductivity values are defined stochastically. The probability of failure is reduced by the presence of a monitoring network operated by the owner/operator and located between the source and the regulatory compliance surface. The level of reduction in the probability of failure depends on the probability of detection of the monitoring network, which can be calculated from the stochastic contaminant transport simulations. While the framework is quite general, the development in this paper is specifically suited for a landfill in which the primary design feature is one or more synthetic liners in parallel. Contamination is brought about by the release of a single, inorganic nonradioactive species into a saturated, high-permeability, advective, steady state horizontal flow system which can be analyzed with a two-dimensional analysis. It is possible to carry out sensitivity analyses for a wide variety of influences on this system, including landfill size, liner design, hydrogeological parameters, amount of exploration, extent of monitoring network, nature of remedial schemes, economic factors, and regulatory policy.

Defense Strategies for Asymmetric Networked Systems with Discrete Components.

PubMed

Rao, Nageswara S V; Ma, Chris Y T; Hausken, Kjell; He, Fei; Yau, David K Y; Zhuang, Jun

2018-05-03

We consider infrastructures consisting of a network of systems, each composed of discrete components. The network provides the vital connectivity between the systems and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. The individual components of the systems can be attacked by cyber and physical means and can be appropriately reinforced to withstand these attacks. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure performance as a game between an attacker and a provider, who choose the numbers of the components of the systems and network to attack and reinforce, respectively. The costs and benefits of attacks and reinforcements are characterized using the sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a component cost term. We present a two-level characterization of the correlations within the infrastructure: (i) the aggregate failure correlation function specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network, and (ii) the survival probabilities of the systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations using multiplier functions. We derive Nash equilibrium conditions that provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities and also the expected infrastructure capacity specified by the total number of operational components. We apply these results to derive and analyze defense strategies for distributed cloud computing infrastructures using cyber-physical models.

Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merill, Robin L.; Tri, Terry O.; Henninger, Donald L.

2003-01-01

The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

Defense Strategies for Asymmetric Networked Systems with Discrete Components

PubMed Central

Rao, Nageswara S. V.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell; He, Fei; Yau, David K. Y.

2018-01-01

We consider infrastructures consisting of a network of systems, each composed of discrete components. The network provides the vital connectivity between the systems and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. The individual components of the systems can be attacked by cyber and physical means and can be appropriately reinforced to withstand these attacks. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure performance as a game between an attacker and a provider, who choose the numbers of the components of the systems and network to attack and reinforce, respectively. The costs and benefits of attacks and reinforcements are characterized using the sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a component cost term. We present a two-level characterization of the correlations within the infrastructure: (i) the aggregate failure correlation function specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network, and (ii) the survival probabilities of the systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations using multiplier functions. We derive Nash equilibrium conditions that provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities and also the expected infrastructure capacity specified by the total number of operational components. We apply these results to derive and analyze defense strategies for distributed cloud computing infrastructures using cyber-physical models. PMID:29751588

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, R.W.; Harp, E.L.; Michael, J.A.

2000-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps; an example from the Los Angeles, California, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.

1998-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10-m grid spacing in the ARC/INFO GIS platform. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.

Risk factors for the treatment outcome of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients in China: an optimized prediction model.

PubMed

Wang, X-M; Yin, S-H; Du, J; Du, M-L; Wang, P-Y; Wu, J; Horbinski, C M; Wu, M-J; Zheng, H-Q; Xu, X-Q; Shu, W; Zhang, Y-J

2017-07-01

Retreatment of tuberculosis (TB) often fails in China, yet the risk factors associated with the failure remain unclear. To identify risk factors for the treatment failure of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, we analyzed the data of 395 retreated PTB patients who received retreatment between July 2009 and July 2011 in China. PTB patients were categorized into 'success' and 'failure' groups by their treatment outcome. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between treatment outcome and socio-demographic as well as clinical factors. We also created an optimized risk score model to evaluate the predictive values of these risk factors on treatment failure. Of 395 patients, 99 (25·1%) were diagnosed as retreatment failure. Our results showed that risk factors associated with treatment failure included drug resistance, low education level, low body mass index (6 months), standard treatment regimen, retreatment type, positive culture result after 2 months of treatment, and the place where the first medicine was taken. An Optimized Framingham risk model was then used to calculate the risk scores of these factors. Place where first medicine was taken (temporary living places) received a score of 6, which was highest among all the factors. The predicted probability of treatment failure increases as risk score increases. Ten out of 359 patients had a risk score >9, which corresponded to an estimated probability of treatment failure >70%. In conclusion, we have identified multiple clinical and socio-demographic factors that are associated with treatment failure of retreated PTB patients. We also created an optimized risk score model that was effective in predicting the retreatment failure. These results provide novel insights for the prognosis and improvement of treatment for retreated PTB patients.

A Competing Risk Model of First Failure Site after Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy for Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Nygård, Lotte; Vogelius, Ivan R; Fischer, Barbara M; Kjær, Andreas; Langer, Seppo W; Aznar, Marianne C; Persson, Gitte F; Bentzen, Søren M

2018-04-01

The aim of the study was to build a model of first failure site- and lesion-specific failure probability after definitive chemoradiotherapy for inoperable NSCLC. We retrospectively analyzed 251 patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy for NSCLC at a single institution between 2009 and 2015. All patients were scanned by fludeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography for radiotherapy planning. Clinical patient data and fludeoxyglucose positron emission tomography standardized uptake values from primary tumor and nodal lesions were analyzed by using multivariate cause-specific Cox regression. In patients experiencing locoregional failure, multivariable logistic regression was applied to assess risk of each lesion being the first site of failure. The two models were used in combination to predict probability of lesion failure accounting for competing events. Adenocarcinoma had a lower hazard ratio (HR) of locoregional failure than squamous cell carcinoma (HR = 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.26-0.76, p = 0.003). Distant failures were more common in the adenocarcinoma group (HR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.41-3.48, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression of individual lesions at the time of first failure showed that primary tumors were more likely to fail than lymph nodes (OR = 12.8, 95% CI: 5.10-32.17, p < 0.001). Increasing peak standardized uptake value was significantly associated with lesion failure (OR = 1.26 per unit increase, 95% CI: 1.12-1.40, p < 0.001). The electronic model is available at http://bit.ly/LungModelFDG. We developed a failure site-specific competing risk model based on patient- and lesion-level characteristics. Failure patterns differed between adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, illustrating the limitation of aggregating them into NSCLC. Failure site-specific models add complementary information to conventional prognostic models. Copyright © 2018 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.

2012-12-01

Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model is used along with the soil characteristic curve (suction vs. moisture) and the Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria in order to calculate the FOS of the slope. Data from two slopes located on steep tropical regions of the cities of Medellín (Colombia) and Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) where used to verify the model's performance. The results indicated significant differences between the obtained FOS values and the behavior observed on the field. The model shows relatively high values of FOS that do not reflect the instability of the analyzed slopes. For the two cases studied, the application of a more simple reliability concept (as the Probability of Failure - PR and Reliability Index - β), instead of a FOS could lead to more realistic results.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Alternative acceptance criteria of girth weld defects in cross country pipelines. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denys, R.M.; Lefevre, T.

1997-06-01

The failure behaviour of defective girth welds in large diameter pipe lines was assessed using radiographic and mechanised ultrasonic inspection, small scale (tensile, hardness, Charpy and CTOD) and wide plate tests. The specimens were taken from girth welds in API 5LX70 pipe of 1219 mm (48 inches) in diameter by 8,0 mm (0,323 inch) and 13,3 mm (0,524 inch) wall. The test welds were made with the SMAW (8 welds) and GMAW (9 welds) welding processes. Upon completion of the non-destructive tests, 96 curved wide plate specimens were tested to destruction under tensile load. Testing was performed at low temperaturemore » (-50{degrees}C/-58{degrees}F). Defect type, defect position and size were determined from photographs of the fracture face and macro sections (defect characterisation and sizing). In total, 290 typical surface breaking and embedded defects in SMAW or GMAW girth welds have been evaluated. The vast majority of these defects were grossly out of tolerance with respect to current weld quality (workmanship) acceptance levels. To allow the defect tolerance to be determined, the failure strains and stresses were correlated with a defect length determined for an equivalent 3 mm (0, 118 inch) deep defect. This target depth was chosen to represent the average height of one weld pass. The results of this approach have been compared to wall thickness, current workmanship and the EPRG Tier 2 defect limit for planar defects. The defect lengths were derived for rectangular, parabolic and elliptical defect representations.« less

Magnetic Fields on the National Ignition Facility (MagNIF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mason, D.; Folta, J.

2016-08-12

A magnetized target capability on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been investigated. Stakeholders’ needs and project feasibility analysis were considered in order to down-select from a wide variety of different potential magnetic field magnitudes and volumes. From the large range of different target platforms, laser configurations, and diagnostics configurations of interest to the stakeholders, the gas-pipe platform has been selected for the first round of magnetized target experiments. Gas pipe targets are routinely shot on the NIF and provide unique value for external collaborators. High-level project goals have been established including an experimentallymore » relevant 20Tesla magnetic field magnitude. The field will be achieved using pulsed power-driven coils. A system architecture has been proposed. The pulsed power drive system will be located in the NIF target bay. This decision provides improved maintainability and mitigates equipment safety risks associated with explosive failure of the drive capacitor. High-level and first-level subsystem requirements have been established. Requirements have been included for two distinct coil designs – full solenoid and quasi-Helmholtz. A Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been performed and documented. Additional requirements have been derived from the mitigations included in the FMEA document. A project plan is proposed. The plan includes a first phase of electromagnetic simulations to assess whether the design will meet performance requirements, then a second phase of risk mitigation projects to address the areas of highest technical risk. The duration from project kickoff to the first magnetized target shot is approximately 29 months.« less

Research and Improvement on Characteristics of Emergency Diesel Generating Set Mechanical Support System in Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhe, Yang

2017-06-01

There are often mechanical problems of emergency power generation units in nuclear power plant, which bring a great threat to nuclear safety. Through analyzing the influence factors caused by mechanical failure, the existing defects of the design of mechanical support system are determined, and the design idea has caused the direction misleading in the field of maintenance and transformation. In this paper, research analysis is made on basic support design of diesel generator set, main pipe support design and important components of supercharger support design. And this paper points out the specific design flaws and shortcomings, and proposes targeted improvement program. Through the implementation of improvement programs, vibration level of unit and mechanical failure rate are reduced effectively. At the same time, it also provides guidance for design, maintenance and renovation of diesel generator mechanical support system of nuclear power plants in the future.

Study of the PENT test conditions for reducing failure times in high-resistance polyethylene resins for pipe applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez, Carlos; García, Rafael A.; Aroca, Marcelo; Carrero, Alicia

2012-02-01

A thorough study of the physical conditions in the Pennsylvania Edge Notch Tensile (PENT) test, such as stress and temperature, is carried out in order to reduce the long test times observed in new bimodal and multimodal polyethylene grades (third and fourth generation grades) which may withstand hundreds or thousands of hours at the standard conditions (80○C, 2.4 MPa). The results show how on increasing the temperature up to 90○C and the applied stress up to 2.8 MPa, the failure time may be reduced by a factor of 6. Special attention should be paid to the n and Q parameters of the Brown and Lu equation, because variations in those parameters could dramatically change the result of the comparison between different systems depending on the temperature and stress value.

Pulsating Heat pipe Only for Space (PHOS): results of the REXUS 18 sounding rocket campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creatini, F.; Guidi, G. M.; Belfi, F.; Cicero, G.; Fioriti, D.; Di Prizio, D.; Piacquadio, S.; Becatti, G.; Orlandini, G.; Frigerio, A.; Fontanesi, S.; Nannipieri, P.; Rognini, M.; Morganti, N.; Filippeschi, S.; Di Marco, P.; Fanucci, L.; Baronti, F.; Mameli, M.; Manzoni, M.; Marengo, M.

2015-11-01

Two Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipes (CLPHPs) are tested on board REXUS 18 sounding rocket in order to obtain data over a relatively long microgravity period (approximately 90 s). The CLPHPs are partially filled with FC-72 and have, respectively, an inner tube diameter larger (3 mm) and slightly smaller (1.6 mm) than the critical diameter evaluated in static Earth gravity conditions. On ground, the small diameter CLPHP effectively works as a Pulsating Heat Pipe (PHP): the characteristic slug and plug flow pattern forms inside the tube and the heat exchange is triggered by thermally driven self-sustained oscillations of the working fluid. On the other hand, the large diameter CLPHP works as a two- phase thermosyphon in vertical position and doesn't work in horizontal position: in this particular condition, the working fluid stratifies within the device as the surface tension force is no longer able to balance buoyancy. Then, the idea to test the CLPHPs in reduced gravity conditions: as the gravity reduces the buoyancy forces becomes less intense and it is possible to recreate the typical PHP flow pattern also for larger inner tube diameters. This allows to increase the heat transfer rate and, consequently, to decrease the overall thermal resistance. Even though it was not possible to experience low gravity conditions due to a failure in the yoyo de-spin system, the thermal response to the peculiar acceleration field (hyper-gravity) experienced on board are thoroughly described.

Diagnostic reasoning techniques for selective monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Homem-De-mello, L. S.; Doyle, R. J.

1991-01-01

An architecture for using diagnostic reasoning techniques in selective monitoring is presented. Given the sensor readings and a model of the physical system, a number of assertions are generated and expressed as Boolean equations. The resulting system of Boolean equations is solved symbolically. Using a priori probabilities of component failure and Bayes' rule, revised probabilities of failure can be computed. These will indicate what components have failed or are the most likely to have failed. This approach is suitable for systems that are well understood and for which the correctness of the assertions can be guaranteed. Also, the system must be such that changes are slow enough to allow the computation.

Probabilistic metrology or how some measurement outcomes render ultra-precise estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calsamiglia, J.; Gendra, B.; Muñoz-Tapia, R.; Bagan, E.

2016-10-01

We show on theoretical grounds that, even in the presence of noise, probabilistic measurement strategies (which have a certain probability of failure or abstention) can provide, upon a heralded successful outcome, estimates with a precision that exceeds the deterministic bounds for the average precision. This establishes a new ultimate bound on the phase estimation precision of particular measurement outcomes (or sequence of outcomes). For probe systems subject to local dephasing, we quantify such precision limit as a function of the probability of failure that can be tolerated. Our results show that the possibility of abstaining can set back the detrimental effects of noise.

Controlling the self-organizing dynamics in a sandpile model on complex networks by failure tolerance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qi, Junjian; Pfenninger, Stefan

In this paper, we propose a strategy to control the self-organizing dynamics of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model on complex networks by allowing some degree of failure tolerance for the nodes and introducing additional active dissipation while taking the risk of possible node damage. We show that the probability for large cascades significantly increases or decreases respectively when the risk for node damage outweighs the active dissipation and when the active dissipation outweighs the risk for node damage. By considering the potential additional risk from node damage, a non-trivial optimal active dissipation control strategy which minimizes the total cost inmore » the system can be obtained. Under some conditions the introduced control strategy can decrease the total cost in the system compared to the uncontrolled model. Moreover, when the probability of damaging a node experiencing failure tolerance is greater than the critical value, then no matter how successful the active dissipation control is, the total cost of the system will have to increase. This critical damage probability can be used as an indicator of the robustness of a network or system. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2015« less

Sensor fault detection and isolation via high-gain observers: application to a double-pipe heat exchanger.

PubMed

Escobar, R F; Astorga-Zaragoza, C M; Téllez-Anguiano, A C; Juárez-Romero, D; Hernández, J A; Guerrero-Ramírez, G V

2011-07-01

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation (FDI) in sensors applied to a concentric-pipe counter-flow heat exchanger. The proposed FDI is based on the analytical redundancy implementing nonlinear high-gain observers which are used to generate residuals when a sensor fault is presented (as software sensors). By evaluating the generated residual, it is possible to switch between the sensor and the observer when a failure is detected. Experiments in a heat exchanger pilot validate the effectiveness of the approach. The FDI technique is easy to implement allowing the industries to have an excellent alternative tool to keep their heat transfer process under supervision. The main contribution of this work is based on a dynamic model with heat transfer coefficients which depend on temperature and flow used to estimate the output temperatures of a heat exchanger. This model provides a satisfactory approximation of the states of the heat exchanger in order to allow its implementation in a FDI system used to perform supervision tasks. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of recovery protocols for double-base smokeless powder residues analysed by total vaporisation (TV) SPME/GC-MS.

PubMed

Sauzier, Georgina; Bors, Dana; Ash, Jordan; Goodpaster, John V; Lewis, Simon W

2016-09-01

The investigation of explosive events requires appropriate evidential protocols to recover and preserve residues from the scene. In this study, a central composite design was used to determine statistically validated optimum recovery parameters for double-base smokeless powder residues on steel, analysed using total vaporisation (TV) SPME/GC-MS. It was found that maximum recovery was obtained using isopropanol-wetted swabs stored under refrigerated conditions, then extracted for 15min into acetone on the same day as sample collection. These parameters were applied to the recovery of post-blast residues deposited on steel witness surfaces following a PVC pipe bomb detonation, resulting in detection of all target components across the majority of samples. Higher overall recoveries were obtained from plates facing the sides of the device, consistent with the point of first failure occurring in the pipe body as observed in previous studies. The methodology employed here may be readily applied to a variety of other explosive compounds, and thus assist in establishing 'best practice' procedures for explosive investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cryogenic Two-Phase Flight Experiment: Results overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swanson, T.; Buchko, M.; Brennan, P.; Bello, M.; Stoyanof, M.

1995-01-01

This paper focuses on the flight results of the Cryogenic Two-Phase Flight Experiment (CRYOTP), which was a Hitchhiker based experiment that flew on the space shuttle Columbia in March of 1994 (STS-62). CRYOTP tested two new technologies for advanced cryogenic thermal control; the Space Heat Pipe (SHP), which was a constant conductance cryogenic heat pipe, and the Brilliant Eyes Thermal Storage Unit (BETSU), which was a cryogenic phase-change thermal storage device. These two devices were tested independently during the mission. Analysis of the flight data indicated that the SHP was unable to start in either of two attempts, for reasons related to the fluid charge, parasitic heat leaks, and cryocooler capacity. The BETSU test article was successfully operated with more than 250 hours of on-orbit testing including several cooldown cycles and 56 freeze/thaw cycles. Some degradation was observed with the five tactical cryocoolers used as thermal sinks, and one of the cryocoolers failed completely after 331 hours of operation. Post-flight analysis indicated that this problem was most likely due to failure of an electrical controller internal to the unit.

The efficiency of asset management strategies to reduce urban flood risk.

PubMed

ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R

2011-01-01

In this study, three asset management strategies were compared with respect to their efficiency to reduce flood risk. Data from call centres at two municipalities were used to quantify urban flood risks associated with three causes of urban flooding: gully pot blockage, sewer pipe blockage and sewer overloading. The efficiency of three flood reduction strategies was assessed based on their effect on the causes contributing to flood risk. The sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in the data source, citizens' calls, was analysed through incorporation of uncertainty ranges taken from customer complaint literature. Based on the available data it could be shown that increasing gully pot blockage is the most efficient action to reduce flood risk, given data uncertainty. If differences between cause incidences are large, as in the presented case study, call data are sufficient to decide how flood risk can be most efficiently reduced. According to the results of this analysis, enlargement of sewer pipes is not an efficient strategy to reduce flood risk, because flood risk associated with sewer overloading is small compared to other failure mechanisms.

Investigation of Capillary Limit in a Loop Heat Pipe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ku, Jentung; Ottenstein, Laura; Rogers, Paul; Cheung, Kwok; Obenschain, Arthur F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper presets an experimental study on the capillary limit of a loop heat pipe (LHP) at low powers. The slow thermal response of the loop at low powers made it possible to observe interactions among various components after the capillary limit was exceeded. The capillary limit at low powers was achieved by imposing additional pressure drops on the vapor line through the use of a metering valve. A differential pressure transducer was also used to measure the pressure drop across the evaporator and the compensation chamber (CC). Test results show that when the capillary limit is exceeded, vapor will penetrate the primary wick, resulting in a partial dry-out of the evaporator and a rapid increase of the CC temperature. Because the evaporator can tolerate vapor bubbles, the LHP will continue to function and may reach a new steady state at the higher temperature. Thus, the LHP will exhibit a graceful degradation in performance rather than a complete failure. Moreover, the loop can recover from a partial dry-out by reducing the heat load without a re-start.

Performance of concatenated Reed-Solomon/Viterbi channel coding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, D.; Yuen, J. H.

1982-01-01

The concatenated Reed-Solomon (RS)/Viterbi coding system is reviewed. The performance of the system is analyzed and results are derived with a new simple approach. A functional model for the input RS symbol error probability is presented. Based on this new functional model, we compute the performance of a concatenated system in terms of RS word error probability, output RS symbol error probability, bit error probability due to decoding failure, and bit error probability due to decoding error. Finally we analyze the effects of the noisy carrier reference and the slow fading on the system performance.

Study on Failure of Third-Party Damage for Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Zhang, Hong; Han, Yinshan; Wang, Baodong

2016-01-01

Focusing on the diversity, complexity and uncertainty of the third-party damage accident, the failure probability of third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was evaluated on the theory of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The fault tree of third-party damage containing 56 basic events was built by hazard identification of third-party damage. The fuzzy evaluation of basic event probabilities were conducted by the expert judgment method and using membership function of fuzzy set. The determination of the weight of each expert and the modification of the evaluation opinions were accomplished using the improved analytic hierarchy process, and the failure possibility of the third-party to urban gas pipeline was calculated. Taking gas pipelines of a certain large provincial capital city as an example, the risk assessment structure of the method was proved to conform to the actual situation, which provides the basis for the safety risk prevention.

Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, R.S.; Dieterich, J.H.; Barka, A.A.

1996-01-01

Ten M???6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1,000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939-92, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 9 out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 5 bars, equivalent to 20 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probabilities using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient stress effects. For the typical 10-year period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence, the stress changes yield an average three-fold gain in the ensuing earthquake probability. Stress is now calculated to be high at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15% probability of a M???6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern center of Erzincan, and a 12% probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Scalable Failure Masking for Stencil Computations using Ghost Region Expansion and Cell to Rank Remapping

DOE PAGES

Gamell, Marc; Teranishi, Keita; Kolla, Hemanth; ...

2017-10-26

In order to achieve exascale systems, application resilience needs to be addressed. Some programming models, such as task-DAG (directed acyclic graphs) architectures, currently embed resilience features whereas traditional SPMD (single program, multiple data) and message-passing models do not. Since a large part of the community's code base follows the latter models, it is still required to take advantage of application characteristics to minimize the overheads of fault tolerance. To that end, this paper explores how recovering from hard process/node failures in a local manner is a natural approach for certain applications to obtain resilience at lower costs in faulty environments.more » In particular, this paper targets enabling online, semitransparent local recovery for stencil computations on current leadership-class systems as well as presents programming support and scalable runtime mechanisms. Also described and demonstrated in this paper is the effect of failure masking, which allows the effective reduction of impact on total time to solution due to multiple failures. Furthermore, we discuss, implement, and evaluate ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping to increase the probability of failure masking. To conclude, this paper shows the integration of all aforementioned mechanisms with the S3D combustion simulation through an experimental demonstration (using the Titan system) of the ability to tolerate high failure rates (i.e., node failures every five seconds) with low overhead while sustaining performance at large scales. In addition, this demonstration also displays the failure masking probability increase resulting from the combination of both ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping.« less

SU-E-T-627: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis for Monthly Quality Assurance of Linear Accelerator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, J; Xiao, Y; Wang, J

2014-06-15

Purpose: To develop and implement a failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) on routine monthly Quality Assurance (QA) tests (physical tests part) of linear accelerator. Methods: A systematic failure mode and effect analysis method was performed for monthly QA procedures. A detailed process tree of monthly QA was created and potential failure modes were defined. Each failure mode may have many influencing factors. For each factor, a risk probability number (RPN) was calculated from the product of probability of occurrence (O), the severity of effect (S), and detectability of the failure (D). The RPN scores are in a range ofmore » 1 to 1000, with higher scores indicating stronger correlation to a given influencing factor of a failure mode. Five medical physicists in our institution were responsible to discuss and to define the O, S, D values. Results: 15 possible failure modes were identified and all RPN scores of all influencing factors of these 15 failue modes were from 8 to 150, and the checklist of FMEA in monthly QA was drawn. The system showed consistent and accurate response to erroneous conditions. Conclusion: The influencing factors of RPN greater than 50 were considered as highly-correlated factors of a certain out-oftolerance monthly QA test. FMEA is a fast and flexible tool to develop an implement a quality management (QM) frame work of monthly QA, which improved the QA efficiency of our QA team. The FMEA work may incorporate more quantification and monitoring fuctions in future.« less

Heart failure rehospitalization of the Medicare FFS patient: a state-level analysis exploring 30-day readmission factors.

PubMed

Schmeida, Mary; Savrin, Ronald A

2012-01-01

Heart failure readmission among the elderly is frequent and costly to both the patient and the Medicare trust fund. In this study, the authors explore the factors that are associated with states having heart failure readmission rates that are higher than the U.S. national rate. Acute inpatient hospital settings. 50 state-level data and multivariate regression analysis is used. The dependent variable Heart Failure 30-day Readmission Worse than U.S. Rate is based on adult Medicare Fee-for-Service patients hospitalized with a primary discharge diagnosis of heart failure and for which a subsequent inpatient readmission occurred within 30 days of their last discharge. One key variable found--states with a higher resident population speaking a primary language other than English at home--that is significantly associated with a decrease in probability in states ranking "worse" on heart failure 30-day readmission. Whereas, states with a higher median income, more total days of care per 1,000 Medicare enrollees, and a greater percentage of Medicare enrollees with prescription drug coverage have a greater probability for heart failure 30-day readmission to be "worse" than the U.S. national rate. Case management interventions targeting health literacy may be more effective than other factors to improve state-level hospital status on heart failure 30-day readmission. Factors such as total days of care per 1,000 Medicare enrollees and improving patient access to postdischarge medication(s) may not be as important as literacy. Interventions aimed to prevent disparities should consider higher income population groups as vulnerable for readmission.

Scalable Failure Masking for Stencil Computations using Ghost Region Expansion and Cell to Rank Remapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamell, Marc; Teranishi, Keita; Kolla, Hemanth

In order to achieve exascale systems, application resilience needs to be addressed. Some programming models, such as task-DAG (directed acyclic graphs) architectures, currently embed resilience features whereas traditional SPMD (single program, multiple data) and message-passing models do not. Since a large part of the community's code base follows the latter models, it is still required to take advantage of application characteristics to minimize the overheads of fault tolerance. To that end, this paper explores how recovering from hard process/node failures in a local manner is a natural approach for certain applications to obtain resilience at lower costs in faulty environments.more » In particular, this paper targets enabling online, semitransparent local recovery for stencil computations on current leadership-class systems as well as presents programming support and scalable runtime mechanisms. Also described and demonstrated in this paper is the effect of failure masking, which allows the effective reduction of impact on total time to solution due to multiple failures. Furthermore, we discuss, implement, and evaluate ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping to increase the probability of failure masking. To conclude, this paper shows the integration of all aforementioned mechanisms with the S3D combustion simulation through an experimental demonstration (using the Titan system) of the ability to tolerate high failure rates (i.e., node failures every five seconds) with low overhead while sustaining performance at large scales. In addition, this demonstration also displays the failure masking probability increase resulting from the combination of both ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping.« less

Antimicrobial treatment failures in patients with community-acquired pneumonia: causes and prognostic implications.

PubMed

Arancibia, F; Ewig, S; Martinez, J A; Ruiz, M; Bauer, T; Marcos, M A; Mensa, J; Torres, A

2000-07-01

The aim of the study was to determine the causes and prognostic implications of antimicrobial treatment failures in patients with nonresponding and progressive life-threatening, community-acquired pneumonia. Forty-nine patients hospitalized with a presumptive diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia during a 16-mo period, failure to respond to antimicrobial treatment, and documented repeated microbial investigation >/= 72 h after initiation of in-hospital antimicrobial treatment were recorded. A definite etiology of treatment failure could be established in 32 of 49 (65%) patients, and nine additional patients (18%) had a probable etiology. Treatment failures were mainly infectious in origin and included primary, persistent, and nosocomial infections (n = 10 [19%], 13 [24%], and 11 [20%] of causes, respectively). Definite but not probable persistent infections were mostly due to microbial resistance to the administered initial empiric antimicrobial treatment. Nosocomial infections were particularly frequent in patients with progressive pneumonia. Definite persistent infections and nosocomial infections had the highest associated mortality rates (75 and 88%, respectively). Nosocomial pneumonia was the only cause of treatment failure independently associated with death in multivariate analysis (RR, 16.7; 95% CI, 1.4 to 194.9; p = 0.03). We conclude that the detection of microbial resistance and the diagnosis of nosocomial pneumonia are the two major challenges in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia who do not respond to initial antimicrobial treatment. In order to establish these potentially life-threatening etiologies, a regular microbial reinvestigation seems mandatory for all patients presenting with antimicrobial treatment failures.

Predictors of treatment failure in young patients undergoing in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Jacobs, Marni B; Klonoff-Cohen, Hillary; Agarwal, Sanjay; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Lindsay, Suzanne; Garzo, V Gabriel

2016-08-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether routinely collected clinical factors can predict in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure among young, "good prognosis" patients predominantly with secondary infertility who are less than 35 years of age. Using de-identified clinic records, 414 women <35 years undergoing their first autologous IVF cycle were identified. Logistic regression was used to identify patient-driven clinical factors routinely collected during fertility treatment that could be used to model predicted probability of cycle failure. One hundred ninety-seven patients with both primary and secondary infertility had a failed IVF cycle, and 217 with secondary infertility had a successful live birth. None of the women with primary infertility had a successful live birth. The significant predictors for IVF cycle failure among young patients were fewer previous live births, history of biochemical pregnancies or spontaneous abortions, lower baseline antral follicle count, higher total gonadotropin dose, unknown infertility diagnosis, and lack of at least one fair to good quality embryo. The full model showed good predictive value (c = 0.885) for estimating risk of cycle failure; at ≥80 % predicted probability of failure, sensitivity = 55.4 %, specificity = 97.5 %, positive predictive value = 95.4 %, and negative predictive value = 69.8 %. If this predictive model is validated in future studies, it could be beneficial for predicting IVF failure in good prognosis women under the age of 35 years.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Probability of in-vessel steam explosion-induced containment failure for a KWU PWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Esmaili, H.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Zuchuat, O.

During postulated core meltdown accidents in light water reactors, there is a likelihood for an in-vessel steam explosion when the melt contacts the coolant in the lower plenum. The objective of the work described in this paper is to determine the conditional probability of in-vessel steam explosion-induced containment failure for a Kraftwerk Union (KWU) pressurized water reactor (PWR). The energetics of the explosion depends on the mass of the molten fuel that mixes with the coolant and participates in the explosion and on the conversion of fuel thermal energy into mechanical work. The work can result in the generation ofmore » dynamic pressures that affect the lower head (and possibly lead to its failure), and it can cause acceleration of a slug (fuel and coolant material) upward that can affect the upper internal structures and vessel head and ultimately cause the failure of the upper head. If the upper head missile has sufficient energy, it can reach the containment shell and penetrate it. The analysis, must therefore, take into account all possible dissipation mechanisms.« less

Engraftment kinetics and graft failure after single umbilical cord blood transplantation using a myeloablative conditioning regimen.

PubMed

Ruggeri, Annalisa; Labopin, Myriam; Sormani, Maria Pia; Sanz, Guillermo; Sanz, Jaime; Volt, Fernanda; Michel, Gerard; Locatelli, Franco; Diaz De Heredia, Cristina; O'Brien, Tracey; Arcese, William; Iori, Anna Paola; Querol, Sergi; Kogler, Gesine; Lecchi, Lucilla; Pouthier, Fabienne; Garnier, Federico; Navarrete, Cristina; Baudoux, Etienne; Fernandes, Juliana; Kenzey, Chantal; Eapen, Mary; Gluckman, Eliane; Rocha, Vanderson; Saccardi, Riccardo

2014-09-01

Umbilical cord blood transplant recipients are exposed to an increased risk of graft failure, a complication leading to a higher rate of transplant-related mortality. The decision and timing to offer a second transplant after graft failure is challenging. With the aim of addressing this issue, we analyzed engraftment kinetics and outcomes of 1268 patients (73% children) with acute leukemia (64% acute lymphoblastic leukemia, 36% acute myeloid leukemia) in remission who underwent single-unit umbilical cord blood transplantation after a myeloablative conditioning regimen. The median follow-up was 31 months. The overall survival rate at 3 years was 47%; the 100-day cumulative incidence of transplant-related mortality was 16%. Longer time to engraftment was associated with increased transplant-related mortality and shorter overall survival. The cumulative incidence of neutrophil engraftment at day 60 was 86%, while the median time to achieve engraftment was 24 days. Probability density analysis showed that the likelihood of engraftment after umbilical cord blood transplantation increased after day 10, peaked on day 21 and slowly decreased to 21% by day 31. Beyond day 31, the probability of engraftment dropped rapidly, and the residual probability of engrafting after day 42 was 5%. Graft failure was reported in 166 patients, and 66 of them received a second graft (allogeneic, n=45). Rescue actions, such as the search for another graft, should be considered starting after day 21. A diagnosis of graft failure can be established in patients who have not achieved neutrophil recovery by day 42. Moreover, subsequent transplants should not be postponed after day 42. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Cascading failures in ac electricity grids.

PubMed

Rohden, Martin; Jung, Daniel; Tamrakar, Samyak; Kettemann, Stefan

2016-09-01

Sudden failure of a single transmission element in a power grid can induce a domino effect of cascading failures, which can lead to the isolation of a large number of consumers or even to the failure of the entire grid. Here we present results of the simulation of cascading failures in power grids, using an alternating current (AC) model. We first apply this model to a regular square grid topology. For a random placement of consumers and generators on the grid, the probability to find more than a certain number of unsupplied consumers decays as a power law and obeys a scaling law with respect to system size. Varying the transmitted power threshold above which a transmission line fails does not seem to change the power-law exponent q≈1.6. Furthermore, we study the influence of the placement of generators and consumers on the number of affected consumers and demonstrate that large clusters of generators and consumers are especially vulnerable to cascading failures. As a real-world topology, we consider the German high-voltage transmission grid. Applying the dynamic AC model and considering a random placement of consumers, we find that the probability to disconnect more than a certain number of consumers depends strongly on the threshold. For large thresholds the decay is clearly exponential, while for small ones the decay is slow, indicating a power-law decay.

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-10-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-01-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Electromigration model for the prediction of lifetime based on the failure unit statistics in aluminum metallization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong Ho; Ahn, Byung Tae

2003-01-01

A failure model for electromigration based on the "failure unit model" was presented for the prediction of lifetime in metal lines.The failure unit model, which consists of failure units in parallel and series, can predict both the median time to failure (MTTF) and the deviation in the time to failure (DTTF) in Al metal lines. The model can describe them only qualitatively. In our model, both the probability function of the failure unit in single grain segments and polygrain segments are considered instead of in polygrain segments alone. Based on our model, we calculated MTTF, DTTF, and activation energy for different median grain sizes, grain size distributions, linewidths, line lengths, current densities, and temperatures. Comparisons between our results and published experimental data showed good agreements and our model could explain the previously unexplained phenomena. Our advanced failure unit model might be further applied to other electromigration characteristics of metal lines.

Size distribution of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chaytor, J.D.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Solow, A.R.; Andrews, B.D.

2009-01-01

Assessment of the probability for destructive landslide-generated tsunamis depends on the knowledge of the number, size, and frequency of large submarine landslides. This paper investigates the size distribution of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic continental slope and rise using the size of the landslide source regions (landslide failure scars). Landslide scars along the margin identified in a detailed bathymetric Digital Elevation Model (DEM) have areas that range between 0.89??km2 and 2410??km2 and volumes between 0.002??km3 and 179??km3. The area to volume relationship of these failure scars is almost linear (inverse power-law exponent close to 1), suggesting a fairly uniform failure thickness of a few 10s of meters in each event, with only rare, deep excavating landslides. The cumulative volume distribution of the failure scars is very well described by a log-normal distribution rather than by an inverse power-law, the most commonly used distribution for both subaerial and submarine landslides. A log-normal distribution centered on a volume of 0.86??km3 may indicate that landslides preferentially mobilize a moderate amount of material (on the order of 1??km3), rather than large landslides or very small ones. Alternatively, the log-normal distribution may reflect an inverse power law distribution modified by a size-dependent probability of observing landslide scars in the bathymetry data. If the latter is the case, an inverse power-law distribution with an exponent of 1.3 ?? 0.3, modified by a size-dependent conditional probability of identifying more failure scars with increasing landslide size, fits the observed size distribution. This exponent value is similar to the predicted exponent of 1.2 ?? 0.3 for subaerial landslides in unconsolidated material. Both the log-normal and modified inverse power-law distributions of the observed failure scar volumes suggest that large landslides, which have the greatest potential to generate damaging tsunamis, occur infrequently along the margin. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.