A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stress reduction in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease: randomized, controlled trial of transcendental meditation and health education in Blacks.

PubMed

Schneider, Robert H; Grim, Clarence E; Rainforth, Maxwell V; Kotchen, Theodore; Nidich, Sanford I; Gaylord-King, Carolyn; Salerno, John W; Kotchen, Jane Morley; Alexander, Charles N

2012-11-01

Blacks have disproportionately high rates of cardiovascular disease. Psychosocial stress may contribute to this disparity. Previous trials on stress reduction with the Transcendental Meditation (TM) program have reported improvements in cardiovascular disease risk factors, surrogate end points, and mortality in blacks and other populations. This was a randomized, controlled trial of 201 black men and women with coronary heart disease who were randomized to the TM program or health education. The primary end point was the composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Secondary end points included the composite of cardiovascular mortality, revascularizations, and cardiovascular hospitalizations; blood pressure; psychosocial stress factors; and lifestyle behaviors. During an average follow-up of 5.4 years, there was a 48% risk reduction in the primary end point in the TM group (hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.92; P=0.025). The TM group also showed a 24% risk reduction in the secondary end point (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.1.13; P=0.17). There were reductions of 4.9 mmHg in systolic blood pressure (95% confidence interval -8.3 to -1.5 mmHg; P=0.01) and anger expression (P<0.05 for all scales). Adherence was associated with survival. A selected mind-body intervention, the TM program, significantly reduced risk for mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke in coronary heart disease patients. These changes were associated with lower blood pressure and psychosocial stress factors. Therefore, this practice may be clinically useful in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov Unique identifier: NCT01299935.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Effect Sizes and their Intervals: The Two-Level Repeated Measures Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2005-01-01

Probability coverage for eight different confidence intervals (CIs) of measures of effect size (ES) in a two-level repeated measures design was investigated. The CIs and measures of ES differed with regard to whether they used least squares or robust estimates of central tendency and variability, whether the end critical points of the interval…

Influence of gender role attitudes on smoking and drinking among girls from Jujuy, Argentina.

PubMed

Mejia, Raul; Kaplan, Celia P; Alderete, Ethel; Gregorich, Steven E; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

2013-09-01

Evaluate effect of gender role attitudes on tobacco and alcohol use among Argentinean girls. Cross-sectional survey of 10th grade students attending 27 randomly selected schools in Jujuy, Argentina. Questions about tobacco and alcohol use were adapted from global youth surveys. Five items with 5-point response options of agreement-disagreement assessed attitude towards egalitarian (higher score) gender roles. 2133 girls, aged 13-18 years, 71% Indigenous, 22% mixed Indigenous/European, and 7% European responded. Of these, 60% had ever smoked, 32% were current smokers, 58% ever drinkers, 27% drank in previous month, and 13% had ≥5 drinks on one occasion. Mean response to the gender role scale was 3.49 (95% Confidence Intervals = 3.41-3.57) out of 5 tending toward egalitarian attitudes. Logistic regression models using the gender role scale score as the main predictor and adjusting for demographic and social confounders showed that egalitarian gender role was associated with ever smoking (Odds Ratio = 1.25; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.09-1.44), ever drinking (Odds Ratio = 1.24; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.10-1.40), drinking in prior month (Odds Ratio = 1.21; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.07-1.37) and ≥5 drinks on one occasion (Odds Ratio = 1.15; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.00-1.33), but was not significant for current smoking. Girls in Jujuy who reported more egalitarian gender role attitudes had higher odds of smoking or drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical inferences with jointly type-II censored samples from two Pareto distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abu-Zinadah, Hanaa H.

2017-08-01

In the several fields of industries the product comes from more than one production line, which is required to work the comparative life tests. This problem requires sampling of the different production lines, then the joint censoring scheme is appeared. In this article we consider the life time Pareto distribution with jointly type-II censoring scheme. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the corresponding approximate confidence intervals as well as the bootstrap confidence intervals of the model parameters are obtained. Also Bayesian point and credible intervals of the model parameters are presented. The life time data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Monte Carlo results from simulation studies are presented to assess the performance of our proposed method.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasma Klotho and Cognitive Decline in Older Adults: Findings From the InCHIANTI Study

PubMed Central

Semba, Richard D.; Rosano, Caterina; Kalyani, Rita R.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Chia, Chee W.; Ferrucci, Luigi

2016-01-01

Background. The hormone klotho, encoded by the gene klotho, is primarily expressed in the kidney and choroid plexus of the brain. Higher klotho concentrations and certain genetic variants of klotho have been linked to better cognition; however, it is unknown whether klotho relates prospectively to slower cognitive decline in older adults. Methods: Plasma klotho was measured in 833 participants aged 55 or older without dementia enrolled in InCHIANTI, a prospective cohort study comprising Italian adults. Cognition was measured by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Trail-Making Tests A and B (Trails A and Trails B) at enrollment and at 3 and 6 years after enrollment. We assessed whether klotho concentrations measured at the 3-year visit related to cognition and cognitive decline. Results: Each additional natural logarithm of klotho (pg/mL) was associated with 35% lower risk of meaningful decline in MMSE, defined as decline exceeding three points (relative risk = 0.65; 95% confidence interval 0.45, 0.95; p value = .02), and 0.75-point smaller average 3-year decline (baseline to 3-year visit) in MMSE (95% confidence interval 0.02, 1.48; p value = .04). No statistically significant associations were found between klotho and declining Trails A (relative risk = 0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.75, 1.32; p value = .97) and B (relative risk = 1.02; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 1.24; p value = .82). Conclusions: Higher plasma klotho concentrations were associated with lower risk of meaningful decline and smaller average decline in MMSE. We did not observe such findings with Trails A and B, perhaps because they test executive function and motor skills, whereas MMSE measures global cognition. Future studies should investigate mechanisms through which klotho may affect domain-specific cognitive changes. PMID:26297657

Randomized sham-controlled trial of renal sympathetic denervation in mild resistant hypertension.

PubMed

Desch, Steffen; Okon, Thomas; Heinemann, Diana; Kulle, Konrad; Röhnert, Karoline; Sonnabend, Melanie; Petzold, Martin; Müller, Ulrike; Schuler, Gerhard; Eitel, Ingo; Thiele, Holger; Lurz, Philipp

2015-06-01

Few data are available with regard to the effectiveness of renal sympathetic denervation in patients with resistant hypertension yet only mildly elevated blood pressure (BP). Patients with resistant hypertension and slightly elevated BP (day-time systolic pressure, 135-149 and diastolic pressure, 90-94 mm Hg on 24-hour ambulatory measurement) were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to renal sympathetic denervation with the Symplicity Flex Catheter (Medtronic) or an invasive sham procedure. The primary efficacy end point was the change in 24-hour systolic BP at 6 months between groups in the intention to treat population. A total of 71 patients underwent randomization. Baseline day-time systolic BP was 144.4±4.8 mm Hg in patients assigned to denervation and 143.0±4.7 mm Hg in patients randomized to the sham procedure. The mean change in 24-hour systolic BP in the intention to treat cohort at 6 months was -7.0 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -10.8 to -3.2) for patients undergoing denervation and -3.5 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -6.7 to -0.2) in the sham group (P=0.15). In the per protocol population, the change in 24-hour systolic BP at 6 months was -8.3 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -11.7 to -5.0) for patients undergoing denervation and -3.5 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -6.8 to -0.2) in the sham group (P=0.042). In patients with mild resistant hypertension, renal sympathetic denervation failed to show a significant reduction in the primary end point of 24-hour systolic BP at 6 months between groups in the intention to treat analysis. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01656096. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions with Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Insu

2016-01-01

The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test…

Normal probability plots with confidence.

PubMed

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Critical analysis of consecutive unilateral cleft lip repairs: determining ideal sample size.

PubMed

Power, Stephanie M; Matic, Damir B

2013-03-01

Objective : Cleft surgeons often show 10 consecutive lip repairs to reduce presentation bias, however the validity remains unknown. The purpose of this study is to determine the number of consecutive cases that represent average outcomes. Secondary objectives are to determine if outcomes correlate with cleft severity and to calculate interrater reliability. Design : Consecutive preoperative and 2-year postoperative photographs of the unilateral cleft lip-nose complex were randomized and evaluated by cleft surgeons. Parametric analysis was performed according to chronologic, consecutive order. The mean standard deviation over all raters enabled calculation of expected 95% confidence intervals around a mean tested for various sample sizes. Setting : Meeting of the American Cleft Palate-Craniofacial Association in 2009. Patients, Participants : Ten senior cleft surgeons evaluated 39 consecutive lip repairs. Main Outcome Measures : Preoperative severity and postoperative outcomes were evaluated using descriptive and quantitative scales. Results : Intraclass correlation coefficients for cleft severity and postoperative evaluations were 0.65 and 0.21, respectively. Outcomes did not correlate with cleft severity (P  =  .28). Calculations for 10 consecutive cases demonstrated wide 95% confidence intervals, spanning two points on both postoperative grading scales. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals narrowed within one qualitative grade (±0.30) and one point (±0.50) on the 10-point scale for 27 consecutive cases. Conclusions : Larger numbers of consecutive cases (n > 27) are increasingly representative of average results, but less practical in presentation format. Ten consecutive cases lack statistical support. Cleft surgeons showed low interrater reliability for postoperative assessments, which may reflect personal bias when evaluating another surgeon's results.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias; May, Margaret; Grabar, Sophie; Furrer, Hansjakob; Sabin, Caroline; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Justice, Amy; Reiss, Peter; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Gill, John; Hogg, Robert; Bonnet, Fabrice; Kitahata, Mari; Staszewski, Schlomo; Casabona, Jordi; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael

2009-04-15

The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Maternal depressive symptoms and infant health practices among low-income women.

PubMed

Chung, Esther K; McCollum, Kelly F; Elo, Irma T; Lee, Helen J; Culhane, Jennifer F

2004-06-01

To determine the relationships between maternal depressive symptoms and the use of infant health services, parenting practices, and injury-prevention measures. A prospective, community-based survey of women attending Philadelphia public health centers between February 2000 and November 2001 was conducted. Women were surveyed at 3 time points before and after parturition. Depressive symptoms were determined with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale at each time point. We studied 6 outcomes, clustered into 3 categories: 1) infant health service use (adequate well-child care and ever being hospitalized); 2) parenting practices (breastfeeding for > or =1 month and use of corporal punishment); and 3) injury-prevention measures (having a smoke alarm and using the back sleep position). The sample consisted of 774 largely single (74%), uninsured (63%), African American (65%) women, with a mean age of 24 +/- 6 years and a mean annual income of 8063 dollars. Forty-eight percent of women had depressive symptoms at 1 or 2 time points (ever symptoms) and 12% had depressive symptoms at all points (persistent symptoms). Compared with women who never had depressive symptoms (without symptoms), women with persistent symptoms were nearly 3 times as likely to have their child ever hospitalized (adjusted odds ratio: 2.89; 95% confidence interval: 1.61-5.07) and twice as likely to use corporal punishment (adjusted odds ratio: 1.90; 95% confidence interval: 1.08-3.34). Mothers with persistent depressive symptoms were nearly three-quarters less likely to have smoke alarms in their homes (adjusted odds ratio: 0.28; 95% confidence interval: 0.11-0.70) and one-half as likely to use the back sleep position (adjusted odds ratio: 0.56; 95% confidence interval: 0.35-0.91), compared with women without symptoms. There was no association between maternal depressive symptoms and infant receipt of well-child care or the likelihood of breastfeeding for > or =1 month. Maternal depressive symptoms persisting from the prepartum to postpartum periods were associated with increased risks of infant hospitalization and use of corporal punishment and with lower likelihood of having a smoke alarm and using the back sleep position. Additional efforts are needed to identify and evaluate mothers with depressive symptoms to improve the health and safety of young infants.

Urinary biomarkers may provide prognostic information for subclinical acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Albert, Christian; Albert, Annemarie; Kube, Johanna; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Wettersten, Nicholas; Kuppe, Hermann; Westphal, Sabine; Haase, Michael; Haase-Fielitz, Anja

2018-06-01

This study aimed to determine the biomarker-specific outcome patterns and short-and long-term prognosis of cardiac surgery-asoociated acute kidney injury (AKI) identified by standard criteria and/or urinary kidney biomarkers. Patients enrolled (N = 200), originated a German multicenter study (NCT00672334). Standard risk injury, failure, loss, and end-stage renal disease classification (RIFLE) criteria (including serum creatinine and urine output) and urinary kidney biomarker test result (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, midkine, interleukin 6, and proteinuria) were used for diagnosis of postoperative AKI. Primary end point was acute renal replacement therapy or in-hospital mortality. Long-term end points among others included 5-year mortality. Patients with single-biomarker-positive subclinical AKI (RIFLE negative) were identified. We controlled for systemic inflammation using C-reactive protein test. Urinary biomarkers (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, midkine, and interleukin 6) were identified as independent predictors of the primary end point. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, midkine, or interleukin 6 positivity or de novo/worsening proteinuria identified 21.1%, 16.9%, 30.5%, and 48.0% more cases, respectively, with likely subclinical AKI (biomarker positive/RIFLE negative) additionally to cases with RIFLE positivity alone. Patients with likely subclinical AKI (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin or interleukin 6 positive) had increased risk of primary end point (adjusted hazard ratio, 7.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-33.93 [P = .013] and hazard ratio, 6.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-35.21 [P = .037]), respectively. Compared with biomarker-negative/RIFLE-positive patients, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin positive/RIFLE-positive or midkine-positive/RIFLE-positive patients had increased risk of primary end point (odds ratio, 9.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-67.3 [P = .033] and odds ratio, 14.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-109.2 [P = .011], respectively). Three percent to 11% of patients appear to be influenced by single-biomarker-positive subclinical AKI. During follow-up, kidney biomarker-defined short-term outcomes appeared to translate into long-term outcomes. Urinary kidney biomarkers identified RIFLE-negative patients with high-risk subclinical AKI as well as a higher risk subgroup of patients among RIFLE-AKI-positive patients. These findings support the concept that urinary biomarkers define subclinical AKI and higher risk subpopulations with worse long-term prognosis among standard patients with AKI. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Time Interval Between Exposure to the World Trade Center Disaster and Incident Diagnoses of Obstructive Airway Disease

PubMed Central

Glaser, Michelle S.; Webber, Mayris P.; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Weakley, Jessica; Liu, Xiaoxue; Ye, Fen; Cohen, Hillel W.; Aldrich, Thomas K.; Kelly, Kerry J.; Nolan, Anna; Weiden, Michael D.; Prezant, David J.; Hall, Charles B.

2014-01-01

Respiratory disorders are associated with occupational and environmental exposures. The latency period between exposure and disease onset remains uncertain. The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster presents a unique opportunity to describe the latency period for obstructive airway disease (OAD) diagnoses. This prospective cohort study of New York City firefighters compared the timing and incidence of physician-diagnosed OAD relative to WTC exposure. Exposure was categorized by WTC arrival time as high (on the morning of September 11, 2001), moderate (after noon on September 11, 2001, or on September 12, 2001), or low (during September 13–24, 2001). We modeled relative rates and 95% confidence intervals of OAD incidence by exposure over the first 5 years after September 11, 2001, estimating the times of change in the relative rate with change point models. We observed a change point at 15 months after September 11, 2001. Before 15 months, the relative rate for the high- versus low-exposure group was 3.96 (95% confidence interval: 2.51, 6.26) and thereafter, it was 1.76 (95% confidence interval: 1.26, 2.46). Incident OAD was associated with WTC exposure for at least 5 years after September 11, 2001. There were higher rates of new-onset OAD among the high-exposure group during the first 15 months and, to a lesser extent, throughout follow-up. This difference in relative rate by exposure occurred despite full and free access to health care for all WTC-exposed firefighters, demonstrating the persistence of WTC-associated OAD risk. PMID:24980522

Significance testing - are we ready yet to abandon its use?

PubMed

The, Bertram

2011-11-01

Understanding of the damaging effects of significance testing has steadily grown. Reporting p values without dichotomizing the result to be significant or not, is not the solution. Confidence intervals are better, but are troubled by a non-intuitive interpretation, and are often misused just to see whether the null value lies within the interval. Bayesian statistics provide an alternative which solves most of these problems. Although criticized for relying on subjective models, the interpretation of a Bayesian posterior probability is more intuitive than the interpretation of a p value, and seems to be closest to intuitive patterns of human decision making. Another alternative could be using confidence interval functions (or p value functions) to display a continuum of intervals at different levels of confidence around a point estimate. Thus, better alternatives to significance testing exist. The reluctance to abandon this practice might be both preference of clinging to old habits as well as the unfamiliarity with better methods. Authors might question if using less commonly exercised, though superior, techniques will be well received by the editors, reviewers and the readership. A joint effort will be needed to abandon significance testing in clinical research in the future.

Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks.

PubMed

Papadopoulos, Harris; Haralambous, Haris

2011-10-01

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression neural networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, called Conformal Prediction (CP), for assigning reliable confidence measures to predictions without assuming anything more than that the data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We evaluate the proposed method on four benchmark datasets and on the problem of predicting Total Electron Content (TEC), which is an important parameter in trans-ionospheric links; for the latter we use a dataset of more than 60000 TEC measurements collected over a period of 11 years. Our experimental results show that the prediction intervals produced by our method are both well calibrated and tight enough to be useful in practice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkison, Milo D.; Peterson, R.M.

2000-01-01

Historically, forecast error for returns of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka to Bristol Bay, Alaska, has been large. Using cross-validation forecast error as our criterion, we selected forecast models for each of the nine principal Bristol Bay drainages. Competing forecast models included stock-recruitment relationships, environmental variables, prior returns of siblings, or combinations of these predictors. For most stocks, we found prior returns of siblings to be the best single predictor of returns; however, forecast accuracy was low even when multiple predictors were considered. For a typical drainage, an 80% confidence interval ranged from one half to double the point forecast. These confidence intervals appeared to be appropriately wide.

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Uncertainty and inferred reserve estimates; the 1995 National Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, Timothy C.

2003-01-01

Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves of oil and gas fields discovered as of a certain date. Inferred reserves accounted for 65 percent of the total oil and 34 percent of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in onshore and State offshore areas. The assessment predicted that over the 80-year period from 1992 through 2071, the sizes of pre-1992 discoveries in the lower 48 onshore and State offshore areas will increase by 48 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 313 trillion cubic feet of wet gas (TCF). At that time, only point estimates were reported. This study presents a scheme to compute confidence intervals for these estimates. The recentered 90 percent confidence interval for the estimated inferred oil of 48 BBO is 25 BBO and 82 BBO. Similarly, the endpoints of the confidence interval about inferred reserve estimate of 313 TCF are 227 TCF and 439 TCF. The range of the estimates provides a basis for development of scenarios for projecting reserve additions and ultimately oil and gas production, information important to energy policy analysis.

Contraction induced h reflexes in the diagnosis of cervical radiculopathy.

PubMed

Bodofsky, Elliot B; Campellone, Joseph V; Cohen, Stephen J; Caten, Holly N; Schindelheim, Adam M

2015-06-01

To determine whether Contraction Induced H Reflexes (CIHR) can accurately detect cervical radiculopathy. Comparison of CIHR results with Needle Electromyography at academic outpatient Electromyography/Nerve Conduction laboratories. Participants were all patients over 18 with a needle electromyography diagnosis of cervical radiculopathy. Patients were tested for CIHR in at least two upper extremity muscles in electromyographically proven myotomes bilaterally. Patients were requested to perform a moderate contraction while stimulus was applied proximally (elbow or Erb's point). Outcome measures included H Reflex onset latency and side-to-side latency differences. These were compared against previously established normal values. Overall, 10 of 15 patients who met criteria for cervical radiculopathy showed CIHR abnormalities (sensitivity = 67%; 95% confidence interval, 43-91). Counting each side and level separately, CIHR identified 16/27 radiculopathies (sensitivity = 59.2%; 95% confidence interval, 40.6-77.8). Contraction Induced H Reflexes identified 1 possible radiculopathy not seen on electromyography (specificity = 98%; 95% confidence interval, 95-100). Contraction induced H Reflexes have a sensitivity and specificity for cervical radiculopathy similar to the resting Gastroc-Soleus H Reflex.

FAST: Fitting and Assessment of Synthetic Templates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kriek, Mariska; van Dokkum, Pieter G.; Labbé, Ivo; Franx, Marijn; Illingworth, Garth D.; Marchesini, Danilo; Quadri, Ryan F.; Aird, James; Coil, Alison L.; Georgakakis, Antonis

2018-03-01

FAST (Fitting and Assessment of Synthetic Templates) fits stellar population synthesis templates to broadband photometry and/or spectra. FAST is compatible with the photometric redshift code EAzY (ascl:1010.052) when fitting broadband photometry; it uses the photometric redshifts derived by EAzY, and the input files (for examply, photometric catalog and master filter file) are the same. FAST fits spectra in combination with broadband photometric data points or simultaneously fits two components, allowing for an AGN contribution in addition to the host galaxy light. Depending on the input parameters, FAST outputs the best-fit redshift, age, dust content, star formation timescale, metallicity, stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and their confidence intervals. Though some of FAST's functions overlap with those of HYPERZ (ascl:1108.010), it differs by fitting fluxes instead of magnitudes, allows the user to completely define the grid of input stellar population parameters and easily input photometric redshifts and their confidence intervals, and calculates calibrated confidence intervals for all parameters. Note that FAST is not a photometric redshift code, though it can be used as one.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in patients with coronary artery disease and absence of heart failure or left ventricular systolic dysfunction: an overview of long-term randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Danchin, Nicolas; Cucherat, Michel; Thuillez, Christian; Durand, Eric; Kadri, Zena; Steg, Philippe G

2006-04-10

Results of randomized trials of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and preserved left ventricular function are conflicting. We undertook this study to determine whether long-term prescription of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors decreases major cardiovascular events and mortality in patients who have CAD and no evidence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and IPA databases, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (1990-2004), and reports from scientific meetings (2003-2004), and we reviewed secondary sources. Search terms included angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, coronary artery disease, randomi(s)zed controlled trials, clinical trials, and myocardial infarction. Eligible studies included randomized controlled trials in patients who had CAD and no heart failure or left ventricular dysfunction, with follow-up omicronf 2 years or longer. Of 1146 publications screened, 7 met our selection criteria and included a total of 33 960 patients followed up for a mean of 4.4 years. Five trials included only patients with documented CAD. One trial included patients with documented CAD (80%) or patients who had diabetes mellitus and 1 or more additional risk factors, and another trial included patients who had CAD, a history of transient ischemic attack, or intermittent claudication. Treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors decreased overall mortality (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.93), cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.90), myocardial infarction (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.89), and stroke (odds ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.88). Other end points, including resuscitation after cardiac arrest, myocardial revascularization, and hospitalization because of heart failure, were also reduced. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors reduce total mortality and major cardiovascular end points in patients who have CAD and no left ventricular systolic dysfunction or heart failure.

Risk score to predict hospital-acquired pneumonia after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

PubMed

Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Du, Wanliang; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yongjun

2014-09-01

We aimed to develop a risk score (intracerebral hemorrhage-associated pneumonia score, ICH-APS) for predicting hospital-acquired stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) after ICH. The ICH-APS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR), in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Variables routinely collected at presentation were used for predicting SAP after ICH. For testing the added value of hematoma volume measure, we separately developed 2 models with (ICH-APS-B) and without (ICH-APS-A) hematoma volume included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and integrated discrimination index were used to assess model discrimination, calibration, and reclassification, respectively. The SAP was 16.4% and 17.7% in the overall derivation (n=2998) and validation (n=2000) cohorts, respectively. A 23-point ICH-APS-A was developed based on a set of predictors and showed good discrimination in the overall derivation (AUROC, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.77) and validation (AUROC, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.79) cohorts. The ICH-APS-A was more sensitive for patients with length of stay >48 hours (AUROC, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.81) than those with length of stay <48 hours (AUROC, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.73). The ICH-APS-A was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation (P=0.20) and validation (P=0.66) cohorts. Similarly, a 26-point ICH-APS-B was established. The ICH-APS-A and ICH-APS-B were not significantly different in discrimination and reclassification for SAP after ICH. The ICH-APSs are valid risk scores for predicting SAP after ICH, especially for patients with length of stay >48 hours. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effectiveness of a new standardised Urinary Continence Physiotherapy Programme for community-dwelling older women in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Leong, B S; Mok, Nicola W

2015-02-01

To examine the effectiveness of a standardised Urinary Continence Physiotherapy Programme for older Chinese women with stress, urge, or mixed urinary incontinence. A controlled trial. Six elderly community health centres in Hong Kong. A total of 55 women aged over 65 years with mild-to-moderate urinary incontinence. Participants were randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=27) where they received eight sessions of Urinary Continence Physiotherapy Programme for 12 weeks. This group received education about urinary incontinence, pelvic floor muscle training with manual palpation and verbal feedback, and behavioural therapy. The control group (n=28) was given advice and an educational pamphlet on urinary incontinence. There was significant improvement in urinary symptoms in the intervention group, especially in the first 5 weeks. Compared with the control group, participants receiving the intervention showed significant reduction in urinary incontinence episodes per week with a mean difference of -6.4 (95% confidence interval, -8.9 to -3.9; t= -5.3; P<0.001) and significant improvement of quality of life with a mean difference of -3.93 (95% confidence interval, -5.08 to -2.78; t= -6.9; P<0.001) measured by Incontinence Impact Questionnaire Short Form modified Chinese (Taiwan) version. The subjective perception of improvement, measured by an 11-point visual analogue scale, was markedly better in the intervention group (mean, 8.7; standard deviation, 1.0; 95% confidence interval, 8.4-9.1) than in the control group (mean, 1.4; standard deviation, 0.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.7; t=33.9; P<0.001). The mean treatment satisfaction in the intervention group was 9.5 (standard deviation, 0.8) as measured by an 11-point visual analogue scale. This study demonstrated that the Urinary Continence Physiotherapy Programme was effective in alleviating urinary symptoms among older Chinese women with mild-to-moderate heterogeneous urinary incontinence.

Mannitol and Outcome in Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Propensity Score and Multivariable Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trial 2 Results.

PubMed

Wang, Xia; Arima, Hisatomi; Yang, Jie; Zhang, Shihong; Wu, Guojun; Woodward, Mark; Muñoz-Venturelli, Paula; Lavados, Pablo M; Stapf, Christian; Robinson, Thompson; Heeley, Emma; Delcourt, Candice; Lindley, Richard I; Parsons, Mark; Chalmers, John; Anderson, Craig S

2015-10-01

Mannitol is often used to reduce cerebral edema in acute intracerebral hemorrhage but without strong supporting evidence of benefit. We aimed to determine the impact of mannitol on outcome among participants of the Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2). INTERACT2 was an international, open, blinded end point, randomized controlled trial of 2839 patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (<6 hours) and elevated systolic blood pressure allocated to intensive (target systolic blood pressure, <140 mm Hg within 1 hour) or guideline-recommended (target systolic blood pressure, <180 mm Hg) blood pressure-lowering treatment. Propensity score and multivariable analyses were performed to investigate the relationship between mannitol treatment (within 7 days) and poor outcome, defined by death or major disability on the modified Rankin Scale score (3-6) at 90 days. There was no significant difference in poor outcome between mannitol (n=1533) and nonmannitol (n=993) groups: propensity score-matched odds ratio of 0.90 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-1.09; P=0.30) and multivariable odds ratio of 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-1.07; P=0.18). Although a better outcome was suggested in patients with larger (≥15 mL) than those with smaller (<15 mL) baseline hematomas who received mannitol (odds ratio, 0.52 [95% confidence interval, 0.35-0.78] versus odds ratio, 0.91 [95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.15]; P homogeneity<0.03 in propensity score analyses), the association was not consistent in analyses across other cutoff points (≥10 and ≥20 mL) and for differing grades of neurological severity. Mannitol was not associated with excess serious adverse events. Mannitol seems safe but might not improve outcome in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00716079. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Cinacalcet, Fibroblast Growth Factor-23, and Cardiovascular Disease in Hemodialysis: The Evaluation of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower Cardiovascular Events (EVOLVE) Trial.

PubMed

Moe, Sharon M; Chertow, Glenn M; Parfrey, Patrick S; Kubo, Yumi; Block, Geoffrey A; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Drüeke, Tilman B; Herzog, Charles A; London, Gerard M; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Wheeler, David C; Stolina, Maria; Dehmel, Bastian; Goodman, William G; Floege, Jürgen

2015-07-07

Patients with kidney disease have disordered bone and mineral metabolism, including elevated serum concentrations of fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23). These elevated concentrations are associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The objective was to determine the effects of the calcimimetic cinacalcet (versus placebo) on reducing serum FGF23 and whether changes in FGF23 are associated with death and cardiovascular events. This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial comparing cinacalcet to placebo in addition to conventional therapy (phosphate binders/vitamin D) in patients receiving hemodialysis with secondary hyperparathyroidism (intact parathyroid hormone ≥300 pg/mL). The primary study end point was time to death or a first nonfatal cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, hospitalization for angina, heart failure, or a peripheral vascular event). This analysis included 2985 patients (77% of randomized) with serum samples at baseline and 2602 patients (67%) with samples at both baseline and week 20. The results demonstrated that a significantly larger proportion of patients randomized to cinacalcet had ≥30% (68% versus 28%) reductions in FGF23. Among patients randomized to cinacalcet, a ≥30% reduction in FGF23 between baseline and week 20 was associated with a nominally significant reduction in the primary composite end point (relative hazard, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.98), cardiovascular mortality (relative hazard, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.87), sudden cardiac death (relative hazard, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.86), and heart failure (relative hazard, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.99). Treatment with cinacalcet significantly lowers serum FGF23. Treatment-induced reductions in serum FGF23 are associated with lower rates of cardiovascular death and major cardiovascular events. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00345839. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Uncertainty of exploitation estimates made from tag returns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, L.E.; Brock, R.E.; Dorr, B.S.

2002-01-01

Over 6,000 crappies Pomoxis spp. were tagged in five water bodies to estimate exploitation rates by anglers. Exploitation rates were computed as the percentage of tags returned after adjustment for three sources of uncertainty: postrelease mortality due to the tagging process, tag loss, and the reporting rate of tagged fish. Confidence intervals around exploitation rates were estimated by resampling from the probability distributions of tagging mortality, tag loss, and reporting rate. Estimates of exploitation rates ranged from 17% to 54% among the five study systems. Uncertainty around estimates of tagging mortality, tag loss, and reporting resulted in 90% confidence intervals around the median exploitation rate as narrow as 15 percentage points and as broad as 46 percentage points. The greatest source of estimation error was uncertainty about tag reporting. Because the large investments required by tagging and reward operations produce imprecise estimates of the exploitation rate, it may be worth considering other approaches to estimating it or simply circumventing the exploitation question altogether.

States With Medically Needy Pathways: Differences in Long-Term and Temporary Medicaid Entry for Low-Income Medicare Beneficiaries.

PubMed

Keohane, Laura M; Trivedi, Amal; Mor, Vincent

2017-10-01

Medically needy pathways may provide temporary catastrophic coverage for low-income Medicare beneficiaries who do not otherwise qualify for full Medicaid benefits. Between January 2009 and June 2010, states with medically needy pathways had a higher percentage of low-income beneficiaries join Medicaid than states without such programs (7.5% vs. 4.1%, p < .01). However, among new full Medicaid participants, living in a state with a medically needy pathway was associated with a 3.8 percentage point (adjusted 95% confidence interval [1.8, 5.8]) increase in the probability of switching to partial Medicaid and a 4.5 percentage point (adjusted 95% confidence interval [2.9, 6.2]) increase in the probability of exiting Medicaid within 12 months. The predicted risk of leaving Medicaid was greatest when new Medicaid participants used only hospital services, rather than nursing home services, in their first month of Medicaid benefits. Alternative strategies for protecting low-income Medicare beneficiaries' access to care could provide more stable coverage.

The impact of weight gain or loss on health care costs for employees at the Johnson & Johnson Family of Companies.

PubMed

Carls, Ginger Smith; Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Bruno, Jennifer; Isaac, Fikry; McHugh, Janice

2011-01-01

To quantify the impact of weight gain or weight loss on health care costs. Employees completing at least two health risk assessments during 2002 to 2008 were classified as adding, losing, or staying at high/low risk for each of the nine health risks including overweight and obesity. Models for each risk were used to compare cost trends by controlling for employee characteristics. Employees who developed high risk for obesity (n = 405) experienced 9.9% points higher annual cost increases (95% confidence interval: 3.0%-16.8%) than those who remained at lower risk (n = 8015). Employees who moved from high to lower risk for obesity (n = 384), experienced annual cost increases that were 2.3% points lower (95% confidence interval: -7.4% to 2.8%) than those who remained high risk (n = 1699). Preventing weight gain through effective employee health promotion programs is likely to result in cost savings for employers.

The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

PubMed

Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-03-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

Prediction of Early Recurrent Thromboembolic Event and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation by a Risk Stratification Schema: The ALESSA Score Study.

PubMed

Paciaroni, Maurizio; Agnelli, Giancarlo; Caso, Valeria; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Furie, Karen L; Tadi, Prasanna; Becattini, Cecilia; Falocci, Nicola; Zedde, Marialuisa; Abdul-Rahim, Azmil H; Lees, Kennedy R; Alberti, Andrea; Venti, Michele; Acciarresi, Monica; D'Amore, Cataldo; Mosconi, Maria Giulia; Cimini, Ludovica Anna; Procopio, Antonio; Bovi, Paolo; Carletti, Monica; Rigatelli, Alberto; Cappellari, Manuel; Putaala, Jukka; Tomppo, Liisa; Tatlisumak, Turgut; Bandini, Fabio; Marcheselli, Simona; Pezzini, Alessandro; Poli, Loris; Padovani, Alessandro; Masotti, Luca; Vannucchi, Vieri; Sohn, Sung-Il; Lorenzini, Gianni; Tassi, Rossana; Guideri, Francesca; Acampa, Maurizio; Martini, Giuseppe; Ntaios, George; Karagkiozi, Efstathia; Athanasakis, George; Makaritsis, Kostantinos; Vadikolias, Kostantinos; Liantinioti, Chrysoula; Chondrogianni, Maria; Mumoli, Nicola; Consoli, Domenico; Galati, Franco; Sacco, Simona; Carolei, Antonio; Tiseo, Cindy; Corea, Francesco; Ageno, Walter; Bellesini, Marta; Colombo, Giovanna; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Ciccone, Alfonso; Scoditti, Umberto; Denti, Licia; Mancuso, Michelangelo; Maccarrone, Miriam; Orlandi, Giovanni; Giannini, Nicola; Gialdini, Gino; Tassinari, Tiziana; De Lodovici, Maria Luisa; Bono, Giorgio; Rueckert, Christina; Baldi, Antonio; D'Anna, Sebastiano; Toni, Danilo; Letteri, Federica; Giuntini, Martina; Lotti, Enrico Maria; Flomin, Yuriy; Pieroni, Alessio; Kargiotis, Odysseas; Karapanayiotides, Theodore; Monaco, Serena; Baronello, Mario Maimone; Csiba, Laszló; Szabó, Lilla; Chiti, Alberto; Giorli, Elisa; Del Sette, Massimo; Imberti, Davide; Zabzuni, Dorjan; Doronin, Boris; Volodina, Vera; Michel, Patrik; Vanacker, Peter; Barlinn, Kristian; Pallesen, Lars-Peder; Kepplinger, Jessica; Bodechtel, Ulf; Gerber, Johannes; Deleu, Dirk; Melikyan, Gayane; Ibrahim, Faisal; Akhtar, Naveed; Gourbali, Vanessa; Yaghi, Shadi

2017-03-01

This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.11) and severe atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.87) were predictors for ischemic outcome events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism) at 90 days from acute stroke. Small lesions (≤1.5 cm) were inversely correlated with both major bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.39; P =0.03) and ischemic outcome events (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-1.00). We assigned to age ≥80 years 2 points and between 70 and 79 years 1 point; ischemic index lesion >1.5 cm, 1 point; severe atrial enlargement, 1 point (ALESSA score). A logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure (C statistic) showed an area under the curve of 0.697 (0.632-0.763; P =0.0001) for ischemic outcome events and 0.585 (0.493-0.678; P =0.10) for major bleedings. The validation cohort consisted of 994 patients included in prospective series between April 2014 and June 2016. Logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure showed an area under the curve of 0.646 (0.529-0.763; P =0.009) for ischemic outcome events and 0.407 (0.275-0.540; P =0.14) for hemorrhagic outcome events. In acute stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, high ALESSA scores were associated with a high risk of ischemic events but not of major bleedings. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Stability of INFIT and OUTFIT Compared to Simulated Estimates in Applied Setting.

PubMed

Hodge, Kari J; Morgan, Grant B

Residual-based fit statistics are commonly used as an indication of the extent to which the item response data fit the Rash model. Fit statistic estimates are influenced by sample size and rules-of thumb estimates may result in incorrect conclusions about the extent to which the model fits the data. Estimates obtained in this analysis were compared to 250 simulated data sets to examine the stability of the estimates. All INFIT estimates were within the rule-of-thumb range of 0.7 to 1.3. However, only 82% of the INFIT estimates fell within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of the simulated item's INFIT distributions using this 95% confidence-like interval. This is a 18 percentage point difference in items that were classified as acceptable. Fourty-eight percent of OUTFIT estimates fell within the 0.7 to 1.3 rule- of-thumb range. Whereas 34% of OUTFIT estimates fell within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of the simulated item's OUTFIT distributions. This is a 13 percentage point difference in items that were classified as acceptable. When using the rule-of- thumb ranges for fit estimates the magnitude of misfit was smaller than with the 95% confidence interval of the simulated distribution. The findings indicate that the use of confidence intervals as critical values for fit statistics leads to different model data fit conclusions than traditional rule of thumb critical values.

Common Genetic Variant Risk Score Is Associated With Drug-Induced QT Prolongation and Torsade de Pointes Risk: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Strauss, David G; Vicente, Jose; Johannesen, Lars; Blinova, Ksenia; Mason, Jay W; Weeke, Peter; Behr, Elijah R; Roden, Dan M; Woosley, Ray; Kosova, Gulum; Rosenberg, Michael A; Newton-Cheh, Christopher

2017-04-04

Drug-induced QT interval prolongation, a risk factor for life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias, is a potential side effect of many marketed and withdrawn medications. The contribution of common genetic variants previously associated with baseline QT interval to drug-induced QT prolongation and arrhythmias is not known. We tested the hypothesis that a weighted combination of common genetic variants contributing to QT interval at baseline, identified through genome-wide association studies, can predict individual response to multiple QT-prolonging drugs. Genetic analysis of 22 subjects was performed in a secondary analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial of 3 QT-prolonging drugs with 15 time-matched QT and plasma drug concentration measurements. Subjects received single doses of dofetilide, quinidine, ranolazine, and placebo. The outcome was the correlation between a genetic QT score comprising 61 common genetic variants and the slope of an individual subject's drug-induced increase in heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) versus drug concentration. The genetic QT score was correlated with drug-induced QTc prolongation. Among white subjects, genetic QT score explained 30% of the variability in response to dofetilide ( r =0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.81; P =0.02), 23% in response to quinidine ( r =0.48; 95% confidence interval, -0.03 to 0.79; P =0.06), and 27% in response to ranolazine ( r =0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.80; P =0.03). Furthermore, the genetic QT score was a significant predictor of drug-induced torsade de pointes in an independent sample of 216 cases compared with 771 controls ( r 2 =12%, P =1×10 -7 ). We demonstrate that a genetic QT score comprising 61 common genetic variants explains a significant proportion of the variability in drug-induced QT prolongation and is a significant predictor of drug-induced torsade de pointes. These findings highlight an opportunity for recent genetic discoveries to improve individualized risk-benefit assessment for pharmacological therapies. Replication of these findings in larger samples is needed to more precisely estimate variance explained and to establish the individual variants that drive these effects. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01873950. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy: Impact on Prices, Spending, and Surgical Complications.

PubMed

Robinson, James C; Brown, Timothy T; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J

2015-09-16

Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, -24.9% to -9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, -29.3% to -2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy

PubMed Central

Robinson, James C.; Brown, Timothy T.; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Background: Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. Methods: We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. Results: By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, −24.9% to −9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, −29.3% to −2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Conclusions: Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. Clinical Relevance: This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. PMID:26378263

Comparative Diagnostic Performance of Ultrasonography and 99mTc-Sestamibi Scintigraphy for Parathyroid Adenoma in Primary Hyperparathyroidism; Systematic Review and Meta- Analysis

PubMed

Nafisi Moghadam, Reza; Amlelshahbaz, Amir Pasha; Namiranian, Nasim; Sobhan-Ardekani, Mohammad; Emami-Meybodi, Mahmood; Dehghan, Ali; Rahmanian, Masoud; Razavi-Ratki, Seid Kazem

2017-12-28

Objective: Ultrasonography (US) and parathyroid scintigraphy (PS) with 99mTc-MIBI are common methods for preoperative localization of parathyroid adenomas but there discrepancies exist with regard to diagnostic accuracy. The aim of the study was to compare PS and US for localization of parathyroid adenoma with a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature. Methods: Pub Med, Scopus (EMbase), Web of Science and the reference lists of all included studies were searched up to 1st January 2016. The search strategy was according PICO characteristics. Heterogeneity between the studies was accounted by P < 0.1. Point estimates were pooled estimate of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of SPECT and ultrasonography with 99% confidence intervals (CIs) by pooling available data. Data analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software (version 1.4). Results: Among 188 studies and after deletion of duplicated studies (75), a total of 113 titles and abstracts were studied. From these, 12 studies were selected. The meta-analysis determined a pooled sensitivity for scintigraphy of 83% [99% confidence interval (CI) 96.358 -97.412] and for ultra-sonography of 80% [99% confidence interval (CI) 76-83]. Similar results for specificity were also obtained for both approache. Conclusion: According this meta- analysis, there were no significant differences between the two methods in terms of sensitivity and specificity. There were overlaps in 99% confidence intervals. Also features of the two methods are similar. Creative Commons Attribution License

Assessment of the Thematic Accuracy of Land Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höhle, J.

2015-08-01

Several land cover maps are generated from aerial imagery and assessed by different approaches. The test site is an urban area in Europe for which six classes (`building', `hedge and bush', `grass', `road and parking lot', `tree', `wall and car port') had to be derived. Two classification methods were applied (`Decision Tree' and `Support Vector Machine') using only two attributes (height above ground and normalized difference vegetation index) which both are derived from the images. The assessment of the thematic accuracy applied a stratified design and was based on accuracy measures such as user's and producer's accuracy, and kappa coefficient. In addition, confidence intervals were computed for several accuracy measures. The achieved accuracies and confidence intervals are thoroughly analysed and recommendations are derived from the gained experiences. Reliable reference values are obtained using stereovision, false-colour image pairs, and positioning to the checkpoints with 3D coordinates. The influence of the training areas on the results is studied. Cross validation has been tested with a few reference points in order to derive approximate accuracy measures. The two classification methods perform equally for five classes. Trees are classified with a much better accuracy and a smaller confidence interval by means of the decision tree method. Buildings are classified by both methods with an accuracy of 99% (95% CI: 95%-100%) using independent 3D checkpoints. The average width of the confidence interval of six classes was 14% of the user's accuracy.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

CI2 for creating and comparing confidence-intervals for time-series bivariate plots.

PubMed

Mullineaux, David R

2017-02-01

Currently no method exists for calculating and comparing the confidence-intervals (CI) for the time-series of a bivariate plot. The study's aim was to develop 'CI2' as a method to calculate the CI on time-series bivariate plots, and to identify if the CI between two bivariate time-series overlap. The test data were the knee and ankle angles from 10 healthy participants running on a motorised standard-treadmill and non-motorised curved-treadmill. For a recommended 10+ trials, CI2 involved calculating 95% confidence-ellipses at each time-point, then taking as the CI the points on the ellipses that were perpendicular to the direction vector between the means of two adjacent time-points. Consecutive pairs of CI created convex quadrilaterals, and any overlap of these quadrilaterals at the same time or ±1 frame as a time-lag calculated using cross-correlations, indicated where the two time-series differed. CI2 showed no group differences between left and right legs on both treadmills, but the same legs between treadmills for all participants showed differences of less knee extension on the curved-treadmill before heel-strike. To improve and standardise the use of CI2 it is recommended to remove outlier time-series, use 95% confidence-ellipses, and scale the ellipse by the fixed Chi-square value as opposed to the sample-size dependent F-value. For practical use, and to aid in standardisation or future development of CI2, Matlab code is provided. CI2 provides an effective method to quantify the CI of bivariate plots, and to explore the differences in CI between two bivariate time-series. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Long-term cardiovascular risk of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use according to time passed after first-time myocardial infarction: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Fosbøl, Emil L; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Folke, Fredrik; Charlot, Mette; Selmer, Christian; Bjerring Olesen, Jonas; Lamberts, Morten; Ruwald, Martin H; Køber, Lars; Hansen, Peter R; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar H

2012-10-16

The cardiovascular risk after the first myocardial infarction (MI) declines rapidly during the first year. We analyzed whether the cardiovascular risk associated with using nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) was associated with the time elapsed following first-time MI. We identified patients aged 30 years or older admitted with first-time MI in 1997 to 2009 and subsequent NSAID use by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries of hospitalization and drug dispensing from pharmacies in Denmark. We calculated the incidence rates of death and a composite end point of coronary death or nonfatal recurrent MIs associated with NSAID use in 1-year time intervals up to 5 years after inclusion and analyzed risk by using multivariable adjusted time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Of the 99 187 patients included, 43 608 (44%) were prescribed NSAIDs after the index MI. There were 36 747 deaths and 28 693 coronary deaths or nonfatal recurrent MIs during the 5 years of follow-up. Relative to noncurrent treatment with NSAIDs, the use of any NSAID in the years following MI was persistently associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1.59 [95% confidence interval, 1.49-1.69]) after 1 year and hazard ratio 1.63 [95% confidence interval, 1.52-1.74] after 5 years) and coronary death or nonfatal recurrent MI (hazard ratio, 1.30 [95% confidence interval,l 1.22-1.39] and hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% confidence interval, 1.28-1.55]). The use of NSAIDs is associated with persistently increased coronary risk regardless of time elapsed after first-time MI. We advise long-term caution in the use of NSAIDs for patients after MI.

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Accuracy of a Handheld Ultrasound Device for Neuraxial Depth and Landmark Assessment: A Prospective Cohort Trial.

PubMed

Seligman, Katherine M; Weiniger, Carolyn F; Carvalho, Brendan

2017-08-30

This study investigated the accuracy of a wireless handheld ultrasound with pattern recognition software that recognizes lumbar spine bony landmarks and measures depth to epidural space (Accuro, Rivanna Medical, Charlottesville, VA) (AU). AU measurements to epidural space were compared to Tuohy needle depth to epidural space (depth to loss of resistance at epidural placement). Data from 47 women requesting labor epidural analgesia were analyzed. The mean difference between depth to epidural space measured by AU versus needle depth was -0.61 cm (95% confidence interval, -0.79 to -0.44), with a standard deviation of 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.73). Using the AU-identified insertion point resulted in successful epidural placement at first attempt in 87% of patients, 78% without redirects.

Measuring coverage in MNCH: total survey error and the interpretation of intervention coverage estimates from household surveys.

PubMed

Eisele, Thomas P; Rhoda, Dale A; Cutts, Felicity T; Keating, Joseph; Ren, Ruilin; Barros, Aluisio J D; Arnold, Fred

2013-01-01

Nationally representative household surveys are increasingly relied upon to measure maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) intervention coverage at the population level in low- and middle-income countries. Surveys are the best tool we have for this purpose and are central to national and global decision making. However, all survey point estimates have a certain level of error (total survey error) comprising sampling and non-sampling error, both of which must be considered when interpreting survey results for decision making. In this review, we discuss the importance of considering these errors when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage estimates derived from household surveys, using relevant examples from national surveys to provide context. Sampling error is usually thought of as the precision of a point estimate and is represented by 95% confidence intervals, which are measurable. Confidence intervals can inform judgments about whether estimated parameters are likely to be different from the real value of a parameter. We recommend, therefore, that confidence intervals for key coverage indicators should always be provided in survey reports. By contrast, the direction and magnitude of non-sampling error is almost always unmeasurable, and therefore unknown. Information error and bias are the most common sources of non-sampling error in household survey estimates and we recommend that they should always be carefully considered when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage based on survey data. Overall, we recommend that future research on measuring MNCH intervention coverage should focus on refining and improving survey-based coverage estimates to develop a better understanding of how results should be interpreted and used.

Measuring Coverage in MNCH: Total Survey Error and the Interpretation of Intervention Coverage Estimates from Household Surveys

PubMed Central

Eisele, Thomas P.; Rhoda, Dale A.; Cutts, Felicity T.; Keating, Joseph; Ren, Ruilin; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Arnold, Fred

2013-01-01

Nationally representative household surveys are increasingly relied upon to measure maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) intervention coverage at the population level in low- and middle-income countries. Surveys are the best tool we have for this purpose and are central to national and global decision making. However, all survey point estimates have a certain level of error (total survey error) comprising sampling and non-sampling error, both of which must be considered when interpreting survey results for decision making. In this review, we discuss the importance of considering these errors when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage estimates derived from household surveys, using relevant examples from national surveys to provide context. Sampling error is usually thought of as the precision of a point estimate and is represented by 95% confidence intervals, which are measurable. Confidence intervals can inform judgments about whether estimated parameters are likely to be different from the real value of a parameter. We recommend, therefore, that confidence intervals for key coverage indicators should always be provided in survey reports. By contrast, the direction and magnitude of non-sampling error is almost always unmeasurable, and therefore unknown. Information error and bias are the most common sources of non-sampling error in household survey estimates and we recommend that they should always be carefully considered when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage based on survey data. Overall, we recommend that future research on measuring MNCH intervention coverage should focus on refining and improving survey-based coverage estimates to develop a better understanding of how results should be interpreted and used. PMID:23667331

Surgical versus functional treatment for acute ruptures of the lateral ligament complex of the ankle in young men: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri; Hietaniemi, Kalevi; Paavola, Mika; Visuri, Tuomo; Mattila, Ville M

2010-10-20

Some have recommended surgical treatment of Grade-III lateral ligament injuries in very active individuals with high functional demands on the ankle. The purpose of this study was to establish whether surgery provides better long-term results than functional treatment for acute ruptures of the lateral ligaments of the ankle. Physically active Finnish men (mean age, 20.4 years) with an acute Grade-III lateral ligament rupture of the ankle were randomly allocated to surgical (n = 25) or functional (n = 26) treatment. Ligament injury was confirmed with stress radiographs. Surgical treatment comprised suture repair of the injured ligament(s) within the first week after injury. A below-the-knee plaster cast was worn for six weeks with full weight-bearing. Functional treatment consisted of the use of an Aircast ankle brace for three weeks. The main outcome measures included final follow-up examinations, calculation of an ankle score, stress radiographs, and magnetic resonance imaging scans. Fifteen (60%) of twenty-five surgically treated patients and eighteen (69%) of twenty-six functionally treated patients returned for long-term follow-up (mean duration, fourteen years). All patients in both groups had recovered their preinjury activity level and reported that they could walk and run normally. The prevalence of reinjury was one of fifteen in the surgical group and seven of eighteen in the functional treatment group (risk difference: 32%; 95% confidence interval: 6% to 58%). The mean ankle score did not differ significantly between the groups (mean difference: 8.3 points; 95% confidence interval: -0.03 to 16.6 points). Stress radiographs revealed no difference between groups with regard to the mean anterior drawer (-1 mm in the surgical group and 0 mm in the functional treatment group; mean difference: 0.7 mm; 95% confidence interval: -1.4 to 2.7 mm) or mean tilt angle (0° in both groups; mean difference: 0.1°; 95% confidence interval: -3.2° to 3.5°). Grade-II osteoarthritis was observed on magnetic resonance images of four of the fifteen surgically treated patients and in none of the eighteen functionally treated patients (risk difference: 27%; 95% confidence interval: 4% to 49%). These findings indicate that, in terms of recovery of the preinjury activity level, the long-term results of surgical treatment of acute lateral ligament rupture of the ankle correspond with those of functional treatment. Although surgery appeared to decrease the prevalence of reinjury of the lateral ligaments, there may be an increased risk for the subsequent development of osteoarthritis.

Reliable results from stochastic simulation models

Treesearch

Donald L., Jr. Gochenour; Leonard R. Johnson

1973-01-01

Development of a computer simulation model is usually done without fully considering how long the model should run (e.g. computer time) before the results are reliable. However construction of confidence intervals (CI) about critical output parameters from the simulation model makes it possible to determine the point where model results are reliable. If the results are...

Monitoring Human Development Goals: A Straightforward (Bayesian) Methodology for Cross-National Indices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abayomi, Kobi; Pizarro, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

We offer a straightforward framework for measurement of progress, across many dimensions, using cross-national social indices, which we classify as linear combinations of multivariate country level data onto a univariate score. We suggest a Bayesian approach which yields probabilistic (confidence type) intervals for the point estimates of country…

Uncertainty in Population Growth Rates: Determining Confidence Intervals from Point Estimates of Parameters

PubMed Central

Devenish Nelson, Eleanor S.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl D.; Richards, Shane A.; Stephens, Philip A.

2010-01-01

Background Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. Conclusions/Significance Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species. PMID:21049049

A possible simplification for the estimation of area under the curve (AUC₀₋₁₂) of enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium in renal transplant patients receiving tacrolimus.

PubMed

Fleming, Denise H; Mathew, Binu S; Prasanna, Samuel; Annapandian, Vellaichamy M; John, George T

2011-04-01

Enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) is widely used in renal transplantation. With a delayed absorption profile, it has not been possible to develop limited sampling strategies to estimate area under the curve (mycophenolic acid [MPA] AUC₀₋₁₂), which have limited time points and are completed in 2 hours. We developed and validated simplified strategies to estimate MPA AUC₀₋₁₂ in an Indian renal transplant population prescribed EC-MPS together with prednisolone and tacrolimus. Intensive pharmacokinetic sampling (17 samples each) was performed in 18 patients to measure MPA AUC₀₋₁₂. The profiles at 1 month were used to develop the simplified strategies and those at 5.5 months used for validation. We followed two approaches. In one, the AUC was calculated using the trapezoidal rule with fewer time points followed by an extrapolation. In the second approach, by stepwise multiple regression analysis, models with different time points were identified and linear regression analysis performed. Using the trapezoidal rule, two equations were developed with six time points and sampling to 6 or 8 hours (8hrAUC[₀₋₁₂exp]) after the EC-MPS dose. On validation, the 8hrAUC(₀₋₁₂exp) compared with total measured AUC₀₋₁₂ had a coefficient of correlation (r²) of 0.872 with a bias and precision (95% confidence interval) of 0.54% (-6.07-7.15) and 9.73% (5.37-14.09), respectively. Second, limited sampling strategies were developed with four, five, six, seven, and eight time points and completion within 2 hours, 4 hours, 6 hours, and 8 hours after the EC-MPS dose. On validation, six, seven, and eight time point equations, all with sampling to 8 hours, had an acceptable r with the total measured MPA AUC₀₋₁₂ (0.817-0.927). In the six, seven, and eight time points, the bias (95% confidence interval) was 3.00% (-4.59 to 10.59), 0.29% (-5.4 to 5.97), and -0.72% (-5.34 to 3.89) and the precision (95% confidence interval) was 10.59% (5.06-16.13), 8.33% (4.55-12.1), and 6.92% (3.94-9.90), respectively. Of the eight simplified approaches, inclusion of seven or eight time points improved the accuracy of the predicted AUC compared with the actual and can be advocated based on the priority of the user.

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Web-based education in systems-based practice: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Kerfoot, B Price; Conlin, Paul R; Travison, Thomas; McMahon, Graham T

2007-02-26

All accredited US residency programs are expected to offer curricula and evaluate their residents in 6 general competencies. Medical schools are now adopting similar competency frameworks. We investigated whether a Web-based program could effectively teach and assess elements of systems-based practice. We enrolled 276 medical students and 417 residents in the fields of surgery, medicine, obstetrics-gynecology, and emergency medicine in a 9-week randomized, controlled, crossover educational trial. Participants were asked to sequentially complete validated Web-based modules on patient safety and the US health care system. The primary outcome measure was performance on a 26-item validated online test administered before, between, and after the participants completed the modules. Six hundred forty (92.4%) of the 693 enrollees participated in the study; 512 (80.0%) of the participants completed all 3 tests. Participants' test scores improved significantly after completion of the first module (P<.001). Overall learning from the 9-week Web-based program, as measured by the increase in scores (posttest scores minus pretest scores), was 16 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 14-17 percentage points; P<.001) in public safety topics and 22 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 20-23 percentage points; P<.001) in US health care system topics. A Web-based educational program on systems-based practice competencies generated significant and durable learning across a broad range of medical students and residents.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

A Prospective, Randomized Trial of Routine Duplex Ultrasound Surveillance on Arteriovenous Fistula Maturation.

PubMed

Han, Ahram; Min, Seung-Kee; Kim, Mi-Sook; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Jungsun; Ha, Jongwon; Lee, Joongyub; Min, Sang-Il

2016-10-07

Use of arteriovenous fistulas, the most preferred type of access for hemodialysis, is limited by their high maturation failure rate. The aim of this study was to assess whether aggressive surveillance with routine duplex ultrasound and intervention can decrease the maturation failure rate of arteriovenous fistulas. We conducted a single-center, parallel-group, randomized, controlled trial of patients undergoing autogenous arteriovenous fistula. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the routine duplex or selective duplex group. In the routine duplex group, duplex ultrasound and physical examination were performed 2, 4, and 8 weeks postoperatively. In the selective duplex group, duplex examination was performed only when physical examination detected an abnormality. The primary end point was the maturation failure rate 8 weeks after fistula creation. Maturation failure was defined as the inability to achieve clinical maturation ( i.e. , a successful first use) and failure to achieve sonographic maturation (fistula flow >500 ml/min and diameter >6 mm) within 8 weeks. Between June 14, 2012, and June 25, 2014, 150 patients were enrolled (75 patients in each group), and 118 of those were included in the final analysis. The maturation failure rate was lower in the routine duplex group (8 of 59; 13.6%) than in the selective duplex group (15 of 59; 25.4%), but the difference was not statistically significant (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 1.19; P =0.10). Factors associated with maturation failure were women (odds ratio, 3.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 14.06; P =0.04), coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 6.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 24.95; P <0.01), diabetes (odds ratio, 6.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.76 to 21.19; P <0.01), and the preoperative cephalic vein diameter (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 0.71; P <0.01). Postoperative routine duplex surveillance failed to prove superiority compared with selective duplex after physical examination for reducing arteriovenous fistula maturation failure. However, the wide 95% confidence interval for the effect of intervention precludes a firm conclusion that routine duplex surveillance was not beneficial. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length to predict preterm birth in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery.

PubMed

Vandermolen, Brooke I; Hezelgrave, Natasha L; Smout, Elizabeth M; Abbott, Danielle S; Seed, Paul T; Shennan, Andrew H

2016-10-01

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing has demonstrated accuracy for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women with a history of preterm birth. Predictive accuracy in women with previous cervical surgery (a potentially different risk mechanism) is not known. We sought to compare the predictive accuracy of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length testing in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery to that in women with 1 previous preterm birth. We conducted a prospective blinded secondary analysis of a larger observational study of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in asymptomatic women measured with a Hologic 10Q system (Hologic, Marlborough, MA). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (<30, <34, and <37 weeks) with cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in primiparous women who had undergone at least 1 invasive cervical procedure (n = 473) was compared with prediction in women who had previous spontaneous preterm birth, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, or late miscarriage (n = 821). Relationship with cervical length was explored. The rate of spontaneous preterm birth <34 weeks in the cervical surgery group was 3% compared with 9% in previous spontaneous preterm birth group. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction at all 3 gestational end points were comparable between the cervical surgery and previous spontaneous preterm birth groups (34 weeks: area under the curve, 0.78 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.93] vs 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.78]; P = .39). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervical length compared with quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction of preterm birth <34 weeks of gestation offered similar prediction (area under the curve, 0.88 [95% confidence interval 0.79-0.96] vs 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.62-0.92], P = .12 in the cervical surgery group; and 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.70-0.84] vs 0.74 [95% confidence interval 0.67-0.81], P = .32 in the previous spontaneous preterm birth group). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin in asymptomatic women with cervical surgery is valid, and has comparative accuracy to that in women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Burden of Intracranial Atherosclerosis Is Associated With Long-Term Vascular Outcome in Patients With Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Kim, Byung-Su; Chung, Pil-Wook; Park, Kwang-Yeol; Won, Hong-Hee; Bang, Oh Young; Chung, Chin-Sang; Lee, Kwang Ho; Kim, Gyeong-Moon

2017-10-01

Ischemic stroke patients often have intracranial atherosclerosis (ICAS), despite heterogeneity in the cause of stroke. We tested the hypothesis that ICAS burden can independently reflect the risk of long-term vascular outcome. This was a retrospective cohort study analyzing data from a prospective stroke registry enrolling consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. A total of 1081 patients were categorized into no ICAS, single ICAS, and advanced ICAS (ICAS ≥2 different intracranial arteries) groups. Primary and secondary end points were time to occurrence of recurrent ischemic stroke and composite vascular outcome, respectively. Study end points by ICAS burden were compared using Cox proportional hazards models in overall and propensity-matched patients. ICAS was present in 405 patients (37.3%). During a median 5-year follow-up, recurrent stroke and composite vascular outcome occurred in 6.8% and 16.8% of patients, respectively. As the number of ICAS increased, the risk for study end points increased after adjustment of potential covariates (hazard ratio per 1 increase in ICAS, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.42 for recurrent ischemic stroke and hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.33 for composite vascular outcome). The hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for recurrent stroke and composite vascular outcome in patients with advanced ICAS compared with those without ICAS were 1.56 (0.88-2.74) and 1.72 (1.17-2.53), respectively, in the overall patients. The corresponding values in the propensity-matched patients were 1.28 (0.71-2.30) and 1.95 (1.27-2.99), respectively. ICAS burden was independently associated with the risk of subsequent composite vascular outcome in patients with ischemic stroke. These findings suggest that ICAS burden can reflect the risk of long-term vascular outcome. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Acupuncture for smoking cessation.

PubMed

White, A R; Rampes, H; Ernst, E

2000-01-01

Acupuncture is promoted as a treatment for smoking cessation, and is believed to reduce withdrawal symptoms. The objective of this review is to determine the effectiveness of acupuncture in smoking cessation in comparison with: a) sham acupuncture b) other interventions c) no intervention. We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group trials register, Medline, PsycLit, Dissertation Abstracts, Health Planning and Administration, Social SciSearch, Smoking & Health, Embase, Biological Abstracts and DRUG. Randomised trials comparing a form of acupuncture with either sham acupuncture, another intervention or no intervention for smoking cessation. We extracted data in duplicate on the type of subjects, the nature of the acupuncture and control procedures, the outcome measures, method of randomisation, and completeness of follow-up. We assessed abstinence from smoking at the earliest time-point (before 6 weeks), at six months and at one year follow-up in patients smoking at baseline. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence for each trial, and biochemically validated rates if available. Those lost to follow-up were counted as continuing to smoke. Where appropriate, we performed meta-analysis using a fixed effects model. We identified 18 publications involving 20 comparisons. Acupuncture was not superior to sham acupuncture in smoking cessation at any time point. The odds ratio (OR) for early outcomes was 1.22 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.49); the OR after 6 months was 1.38 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.11) and after 12 months 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.72 to 1.43). Similarly, when acupuncture was compared with other anti-smoking interventions, there were no differences in outcome at any time point. Acupuncture appeared to be superior to no intervention in the early results, but this difference was not sustained. The results with different acupuncture techniques do not show any one particular method (i.e. auricular acupuncture or non-auricular acupuncture) to be superior to control intervention. There is no clear evidence that acupuncture is effective for smoking cessation.

Is Interferential Current Before Pilates Exercises More Effective Than Placebo in Patients With Chronic Nonspecific Low Back Pain?: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Franco, Katherinne Moura; Franco, Yuri Dos Santos; Oliveira, Naiane Bastos de; Miyamoto, Gisela Cristiane; Santos, Matheus Oliveira; Liebano, Richard Eloin; Cabral, Cristina Nunes

2017-02-01

To determine whether interferential current (IFC) before Pilates exercises is more effective than placebo in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain. Two-arm randomized controlled trial, with a blinded assessor, and 6 months follow-up. Clinic of a school of physical therapy. The random sample consisted of patients (N=148) of both sexes, with age between 18 and 80 years and chronic nonspecific low back pain. In addition, participants were recruited by disclosure of the treatment in the media. Patients were allocated into 2 groups: active IFC + Pilates or placebo IFC + Pilates. In the first 2 weeks, patients were treated for 30 minutes with active or placebo IFC. In the following 4 weeks, 40 minutes of Pilates exercises were added after the application of the active or placebo IFC. A total of 18 sessions were offered during 6 weeks. The primary outcome measures were pain intensity, pressure pain threshold, and disability measured at 6 weeks after randomization. No significant differences were found between the groups for pain (0.1 points; 95% confidence interval, -0.9 to 1.0 points), pressure pain threshold (25.3kPa; 95% confidence interval, -4.4 to 55.0kPa), and disability (0.4 points; 95% confidence interval, -1.3 to 2.2). However, there was a significant difference between baseline and 6-week and 6-month follow-ups in the intragroup analysis for all outcomes (P<.05), except pressure pain threshold in the placebo IFC + Pilates group. These findings suggest that active IFC before Pilates exercise is not more effective than placebo IFC with respect to the outcomes assessed in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stroke or transient ischemic attack in patients with transvenous pacemaker or defibrillator and echocardiographically detected patent foramen ovale.

PubMed

DeSimone, Christopher V; Friedman, Paul A; Noheria, Amit; Patel, Nikhil A; DeSimone, Daniel C; Bdeir, Sami; Aakre, Christopher A; Vaidya, Vaibhav R; Slusser, Joshua P; Hodge, David O; Ackerman, Michael J; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Asirvatham, Samuel J

2013-09-24

A patent foramen ovale (PFO) may permit arterial embolization of thrombi that accumulate on the leads of cardiac implantable electronic devices in the right-sided cardiac chambers. We sought to determine whether a PFO increases the risk of stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) in patients with endocardial leads. We retrospectively evaluated all patients who had endocardial leads implanted between January 1, 2000, and October 25, 2010, at Mayo Clinic Rochester. Echocardiography was used to establish definite PFO and non-PFO cohorts. The primary end point of stroke/TIA consistent with a cardioembolic etiology and the secondary end point of mortality during postimplantation follow-up were compared in PFO versus non-PFO patients with the use of Cox proportional hazards models. We analyzed 6075 patients (364 with PFO) followed for a mean 4.7 ± 3.1 years. The primary end point of stroke/TIA was met in 30/364 (8.2%) PFO versus 117/5711 (2.0%) non-PFO patients (hazard ratio, 3.49; 95% confidence interval, 2.33-5.25; P<0.0001). The association of PFO with stroke/TIA remained significant after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, history of stroke/TIA, atrial fibrillation, and baseline aspirin/warfarin use (hazard ratio, 3.30; 95% confidence interval, 2.19-4.96; P<0.0001). There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality between PFO and non-PFO patients (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.07; P=0.25). In patients with endocardial leads, the presence of a PFO on routine echocardiography is associated with a substantially increased risk of embolic stroke/TIA. This finding suggests a role of screening for PFOs in patients who require cardiac implantable electronic devices; if a PFO is detected, PFO closure, anticoagulation, or nonvascular lead placement may be considered.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Validity and reliability of the de Morton Mobility Index in the subacute hospital setting in a geriatric evaluation and management population.

PubMed

de Morton, Natalie A; Lane, Kylie

2010-11-01

To investigate the clinimetric properties of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) in a Geriatric Evaluation and Management (GEM) population. A longitudinal validation study (n = 100) and inter-rater reliability study (n = 29) in a GEM population. Consecutive patients admitted to a GEM rehabilitation ward were eligible for inclusion. At hospital admission and discharge, a physical therapist assessed patients with physical performance instruments that included the 6-metre walk test, step test, Clinical Test of Sensory Organization and Balance, Timed Up and Go test, 6-minute walk test and the DEMMI. Consecutively eligible patients were included in an inter-rater reliability study between physical therapists. DEMMI admission scores were normally distributed (mean 30.2, standard deviation 16.7) and other activity limitation instruments had either a floor or a ceiling effect. Evidence of convergent, discriminant and known groups validity for the DEMMI were obtained. The minimal detectable change with 90% confidence was 10.5 (95% confidence interval 6.1-17.9) points and the minimally clinically important difference was 8.4 points on the 100-point interval DEMMI scale. The DEMMI provides clinicians with an accurate and valid method of measuring mobility for geriatric patients in the subacute hospital setting.

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in Youth Athletes: Successful Screening With Point-of-Care Ultrasound by Medical Students.

PubMed

Fox, J Christian; Lahham, Shadi; Maldonado, Graciela; Klaus, Suzi; Aish, Bassil; Sylwanowicz, Lauren V; Yanuck, Justin; Wilson, Sean P; Shieh, Mason; Anderson, Craig L; English, Carter; Mayer, Ryan; Mohan, Uthara R

2017-06-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a life-threatening genetic cardiovascular disease that often goes undetected in young athletes. Neither history nor physical examination are reliable to identify those at risk. The objective of this study is to determine whether minimally trained medical student volunteers can use ultrasound to screen for HCM. This was a prospective enrollment of young athletes performed at 12 area high schools and three area colleges, between May 2012 and August 2013. All participants underwent point-of-care ultrasound performed screening for HCM by trained medical students and reviewed by a pediatric cardiologist. An interventricular septum to left ventricular posterior wall ratio greater than 1.25 was considered to be abnormal (positive screen). A total of 2332 participants were enrolled. There were 137 (5.8%) with a positive screening for HCM, of which 7 (5.1%) were confirmed to have HCM by a pediatric cardiologist. In a small cohort with positive screen for HCM, there was a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 59.04 to 100%) and 4.86% (95% confidence interval, 1.98 to 9.76%) positive predictive value of for having HCM. Volunteer medical students, using point-of-care ultrasound, were able to effectively screen for HCM in young athletes. © 2017 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

The Andrews’ Principles of Risk, Need, and Responsivity as Applied in Drug Abuse Treatment Programs: Meta-Analysis of Crime and Drug Use Outcomes

PubMed Central

Prendergast, Michael L.; Pearson, Frank S.; Podus, Deborah; Hamilton, Zachary K.; Greenwell, Lisa

2013-01-01

Objectives The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to answer the question: Can the Andrews principles of risk, needs, and responsivity, originally developed for programs that treat offenders, be extended to programs that treat drug abusers? Methods Drawing from a dataset that included 243 independent comparisons, we conducted random-effects meta-regression and ANOVA-analog meta-analyses to test the Andrews principles by averaging crime and drug use outcomes over a diverse set of programs for drug abuse problems. Results For crime outcomes, in the meta-regressions the point estimates for each of the principles were substantial, consistent with previous studies of the Andrews principles. There was also a substantial point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles. However, almost all of the 95% confidence intervals included the zero point. For drug use outcomes, in the meta-regressions the point estimates for each of the principles was approximately zero; however, the point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles was somewhat positive. All of the estimates for the drug use principles had confidence intervals that included the zero point. Conclusions This study supports previous findings from primary research studies targeting the Andrews principles that those principles are effective in reducing crime outcomes, here in meta-analytic research focused on drug treatment programs. By contrast, programs that follow the principles appear to have very little effect on drug use outcomes. Primary research studies that experimentally test the Andrews principles in drug treatment programs are recommended. PMID:24058325

Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate.

PubMed

Brazzale, Alessandra R; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Krügel, Stefanie; Schiergens, Tobias S; Trentzsch, Heiko; Hartl, Wolfgang

2018-04-05

We present a new method for estimating a change point in the hazard function of a survival distribution assuming a constant hazard rate after the change point and a decreasing hazard rate before the change point. Our method is based on fitting a stump regression to p values for testing hazard rates in small time intervals. We present three real data examples describing survival patterns of severely ill patients, whose excess mortality rates are known to persist far beyond hospital discharge. For designing survival studies in these patients and for the definition of hospital performance metrics (e.g. mortality), it is essential to define adequate and objective end points. The reliable estimation of a change point will help researchers to identify such end points. By precisely knowing this change point, clinicians can distinguish between the acute phase with high hazard (time elapsed after admission and before the change point was reached), and the chronic phase (time elapsed after the change point) in which hazard is fairly constant. We show in an extensive simulation study that maximum likelihood estimation is not robust in this setting, and we evaluate our new estimation strategy including bootstrap confidence intervals and finite sample bias correction.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

Quantitative survival impact of composite treatment delays in head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Ho, Allen S; Kim, Sungjin; Tighiouart, Mourad; Mita, Alain; Scher, Kevin S; Epstein, Joel B; Laury, Anna; Prasad, Ravi; Ali, Nabilah; Patio, Chrysanta; St-Clair, Jon Mallen; Zumsteg, Zachary S

2018-05-09

Multidisciplinary management of head and neck cancer (HNC) must reconcile increasingly sophisticated subspecialty care with timeliness of care. Prior studies examined the individual effects of delays in diagnosis-to-treatment interval, postoperative interval, and radiation interval but did not consider them collectively. The objective of the current study was to investigate the combined impact of these interwoven intervals on patients with HNC. Patients with HNC who underwent curative-intent surgery with radiation were identified in the National Cancer Database between 2004 and 2013. Multivariable models were constructed using restricted cubic splines to determine nonlinear relations with overall survival. Overall, 15,064 patients were evaluated. After adjustment for covariates, only prolonged postoperative interval (P < .001) and radiation interval (P < .001) independently predicted for worse outcomes, whereas the association of diagnosis-to-treatment interval with survival disappeared. By using multivariable restricted cubic spline functions, increasing postoperative interval did not affect mortality until 40 days after surgery, and each day of delay beyond this increased the risk of mortality until 70 days after surgery (hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.28; P = .029). For radiation interval, mortality escalated continuously with each additional day of delay, plateauing at 55 days (hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.41; P < .001). Delays beyond these change points were not associated with further survival decrements. Increasing delays in postoperative and radiation intervals are associated independently with an escalating risk of mortality that plateaus beyond certain thresholds. Delays in initiating therapy, conversely, are eclipsed in importance when appraised in conjunction with the entire treatment course. Such findings may redirect focus to streamlining those intervals that are most sensitive to delays when considering survival burden. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Effect of valsartan on systemic right ventricular function: a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled pilot trial.

PubMed

van der Bom, Teun; Winter, Michiel M; Bouma, Berto J; Groenink, Maarten; Vliegen, Hubert W; Pieper, Petronella G; van Dijk, Arie P J; Sieswerda, Gertjan T; Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Mulder, Barbara J M

2013-01-22

The role of angiotensin II receptor blockers in patients with a systemic right ventricle has not been elucidated. We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, parallel, randomized controlled trial of angiotensin II receptor blocker valsartan 160 mg twice daily compared with placebo in patients with a systemic right ventricle caused by congenitally or surgically corrected transposition of the great arteries. The primary end point was change in right ventricular ejection fraction during 3-year follow-up, determined by cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging or, in patients with contraindication for magnetic resonance imaging, multirow detector computed tomography. Secondary end points were change in right ventricular volumes and mass, Vo(2)peak, and quality of life. Primary analyses were performed on an intention-to-treat basis. A total of 88 patients (valsartan, n=44; placebo, n=44) were enrolled in the trial. No serious adverse effects occurred in either group. There was no significant effect of 3-year valsartan therapy on systemic right ventricular ejection fraction (treatment effect, 1.3%; 95% confidence interval, -1.3% to 3.9%; P=0.34), maximum exercise capacity, or quality of life. There was a larger increase in right ventricular end-diastolic volume (15 mL; 95% confidence interval, 3-28 mL; P<0.01) and mass (8 g; 95% confidence interval, 2-14 g; P=0.01) in the placebo group than in the valsartan group. There was no significant treatment effect of valsartan on right ventricular ejection fraction, exercise capacity, or quality of life. Valsartan was associated with a similar frequency of significant clinical events as placebo. Small but significant differences between valsartan and placebo were present for change in right ventricular volumes and mass. URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN52352170.

Likelihood ratio meta-analysis: New motivation and approach for an old method.

PubMed

Dormuth, Colin R; Filion, Kristian B; Platt, Robert W

2016-03-01

A 95% confidence interval (CI) in an updated meta-analysis may not have the expected 95% coverage. If a meta-analysis is simply updated with additional data, then the resulting 95% CI will be wrong because it will not have accounted for the fact that the earlier meta-analysis failed or succeeded to exclude the null. This situation can be avoided by using the likelihood ratio (LR) as a measure of evidence that does not depend on type-1 error. We show how an LR-based approach, first advanced by Goodman, can be used in a meta-analysis to pool data from separate studies to quantitatively assess where the total evidence points. The method works by estimating the log-likelihood ratio (LogLR) function from each study. Those functions are then summed to obtain a combined function, which is then used to retrieve the total effect estimate, and a corresponding 'intrinsic' confidence interval. Using as illustrations the CAPRIE trial of clopidogrel versus aspirin in the prevention of ischemic events, and our own meta-analysis of higher potency statins and the risk of acute kidney injury, we show that the LR-based method yields the same point estimate as the traditional analysis, but with an intrinsic confidence interval that is appropriately wider than the traditional 95% CI. The LR-based method can be used to conduct both fixed effect and random effects meta-analyses, it can be applied to old and new meta-analyses alike, and results can be presented in a format that is familiar to a meta-analytic audience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air Pollution and Cognitive Development at Age 7 in a Prospective Italian Birth Cohort.

PubMed

Porta, Daniela; Narduzzi, Silvia; Badaloni, Chiara; Bucci, Simone; Cesaroni, Giulia; Colelli, Valentina; Davoli, Marina; Sunyer, Jordi; Zirro, Eleonora; Schwartz, Joel; Forastiere, Francesco

2016-03-01

Early life exposure to air pollution has been linked with cognitive impairment in children, but the results have not been conclusive. We analyzed the association between traffic-related air pollution and cognitive function in a prospective birth cohort in Rome. A cohort of 719 newborns was enrolled in 2003-2004 as part of the GASPII project. At age 7 years, 474 children took the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III to assess their cognitive development in terms of IQ composite scores. Exposure to air pollutants (NO2, PMcoarse, PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance) at birth was assessed using land use regression models. We also considered variables indicating traffic intensity. The effect of environmental pollution on IQ was evaluated performing a linear regression model for each outcome, adjusting for gender, child age at cognitive test, maternal age at delivery, parental educational level, siblings, socio-economic status, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and tester. To account for selection bias at enrollment and during follow-up, the regression models were weighted for the inverse probabilities of participation and follow-up. A 10 μg/m³ higher NO2 exposure during pregnancy was associated with 1.4 fewer points (95% confidence interval = -2.6, -0.20) of verbal IQ, and 1.4 fewer points (95% confidence interval = -2.7, -0.20) of verbal comprehension IQ. Similar associations were found for traffic intensity in a 100 m buffer around home. Other pollutants showed negative associations with larger confidence intervals. Consistent with previous evidence, this study suggests an association of exposure to NO2 and traffic intensity with the verbal area of cognitive development.See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B12.

Effect of Opuntia ficus indica on symptoms of the alcohol hangover.

PubMed

Wiese, Jeff; McPherson, Steve; Odden, Michelle C; Shlipak, Michael G

2004-06-28

The severity of the alcohol hangover may be related to inflammation induced by impurities in the alcohol beverage and byproducts of alcohol metabolism. An extract of the Opuntia ficus indica (OFI) plant diminishes the inflammatory response to stressful stimuli. In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial, 64 healthy, young adult volunteers were randomly assigned to receive OFI (1600 IU) and identical placebo, given 5 hours before alcohol consumption. During 4 hours, subjects consumed up to 1.75 g of alcohol per kilogram of body weight. Hangover severity (9 symptoms) and overall well-being were assessed on a scale (0-6), and blood and urine samples were obtained the following morning. Two weeks later, the study protocol was repeated with OFI and placebo reversed. Fifty-five subjects completed both the OFI and placebo arms of the study. Three of the 9 symptoms-nausea, dry mouth, and anorexia-were significantly reduced by OFI (all P<.05). Overall, the symptom index was reduced by 2.7 points on average (95% confidence interval, -0.2 to 5.5; P =.07), and the risk of a severe hangover (>/=18 points) was reduced by half (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.88; P =.02). C-reactive protein levels were strongly associated with hangover severity; the mean symptom index was 4.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-7.1; P =.007) higher in subjects with morning C-reactive protein levels greater than 1.0 mg/L. In addition, C-reactive protein levels were 40% higher after subjects consumed placebo compared with OFI. The symptoms of the alcohol hangover are largely due to the activation of inflammation. An extract of the OFI plant has a moderate effect on reducing hangover symptoms, apparently by inhibiting the production of inflammatory mediators.

Cross-cultural adaptation and measurement properties of the Brazilian Portuguese Version of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella (VISA-P) scale.

PubMed

Wageck, Bruna Borges; de Noronha, Marcos; Lopes, Alexandre Dias; da Cunha, Ronaldo Alves; Takahashi, Ricardo Hisayoshi; Costa, Leonardo Oliveira Pena

2013-03-01

Clinical measurement. To translate, adapt, and test the measurement properties of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella (VISA-P) questionnaire. It is important to objectively measure symptoms and functional limitations related to patellar tendinopathy using outcome measures that have been validated in the language of the target population. Cross-cultural adaptations are also useful to enhance the understanding of the measurement properties of an assessment tool, regardless of the target language. The VISA-P questionnaire was translated into Brazilian Portuguese, culturally adapted, and titled VISA-P Brazil. It was then administered on 2 occasions with a 24- to 48-hour interval between them, and a third time after a month of physical therapy treatment. The following measurement properties were analyzed: internal consistency, test-retest reliability, agreement, construct validity, floor and ceiling effects, and responsiveness. The VISA-P Brazil had high internal consistency (Cronbach α = .76; if item deleted, Cronbach α = .69-.78), excellent reliability and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91; 95% confidence interval: 0.85, 0.95; standard error of measurement, 5.2 points; minimal detectable change at the 90% confidence level, 12.2 points), and good construct validity (Pearson r = 0.60 compared to Lysholm). No ceiling and floor effects were detected for the VISA-P Brazil, and the responsiveness, based on 32 patients receiving physical therapy intervention for 1 month, demonstrated a large effect size of 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.68, 1.25). The VISA-P Brazil is a reproducible and responsive tool and can be used in clinical practice and research to assess the severity of pain and disability of patients with patellar tendinopathy.

Exercise in pregnancy: an association with placental weight?

PubMed

Hilde, Gunvor; Eskild, Anne; Owe, Katrine Mari; Bø, Kari; Bjelland, Elisabeth K

2017-02-01

Women with high levels of physical exercise have an increased demand for oxygen and nutrients. Thus, in pregnancies of women with high levels of exercise, it is conceivable that the supply of oxygen and nutrients to the placenta is suboptimal, and growth could be impaired. The objective was to study the association of frequency of exercise during pregnancy with placental weight and placental to birthweight ratio. This was a prospective study of 80,515 singleton pregnancies in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Frequency of exercise was self-reported by a questionnaire at pregnancy weeks 17 and 30. Information on placental weight and birthweight was obtained by linkage to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Placental weight decreased with increasing frequency of exercise (tests for trend, P < .001). For nonexercisers in pregnancy week 17, the crude mean placental weight was 686.1 g compared with 667.3 g in women exercising ≥6 times weekly (difference, 18.8 g; 95% confidence interval, 12.0-25.5). Likewise, in nonexercisers in pregnancy week 30, crude mean placental weight was 684.9 g compared with 661.6 g in women exercising ≥6 times weekly (difference, 23.3 g; 95% confidence interval, 14.9-31.6). The largest difference in crude mean placental weight was seen between nonexercisers at both time points and women exercising ≥6 times weekly at both time points (difference, 31.7 g; 95% confidence interval, 19.2-44.2). Frequency of exercise was not associated with placental to birthweight ratio. We found decreasing placental weight with increasing frequency of exercise in pregnancy. The difference in placental weight between nonexercisers and women with exercising ≥6 times weekly was small and may have no clinical implications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acute Ischemic Stroke After Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: Incidence and Impact on Outcome.

PubMed

Kowalski, Robert G; Haarbauer-Krupa, Juliet K; Bell, Jeneita M; Corrigan, John D; Hammond, Flora M; Torbey, Michel T; Hofmann, Melissa C; Dams-O'Connor, Kristen; Miller, A Cate; Whiteneck, Gale G

2017-07-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) leads to nearly 300 000 annual US hospitalizations and increased lifetime risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Occurrence of AIS immediately after TBI has not been well characterized. We evaluated AIS acutely after TBI and its impact on outcome. A prospective database of moderate to severe TBI survivors, admitted to inpatient rehabilitation at 22 Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems centers and their referring acute-care hospitals, was analyzed. Outcome measures were AIS incidence, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, Functional Independence Measure, and Disability Rating Scale, at rehabilitation discharge. Between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2015, 6488 patients with TBI were enrolled in the Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems National Database. One hundred and fifty-nine (2.5%) patients had a concurrent AIS, and among these, median age was 40 years. AIS was associated with intracranial mass effect and carotid or vertebral artery dissection. High-velocity events more commonly caused TBI with dissection. AIS predicted poorer outcome by all measures, accounting for a 13.3-point reduction in Functional Independence Measure total score (95% confidence interval, -16.8 to -9.7; P <0.001), a 1.9-point increase in Disability Rating Scale (95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.5; P <0.001), and an 18.3-day increase in posttraumatic amnesia duration (95% confidence interval, 13.1-23.4; P <0.001). Ischemic stroke is observed acutely in 2.5% of moderate to severe TBI survivors and predicts worse functional and cognitive outcome. Half of TBI patients with AIS were aged ≤40 years, and AIS patients more often had cervical dissection. Vigilance for AIS is warranted acutely after TBI, particularly after high-velocity events. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates from nationally representative seroprevalence surveys.

PubMed

Reniers, Georges; Eaton, Jeffrey

2009-03-13

To assess the relationship between prior knowledge of one's HIV status and the likelihood to refuse HIV testing in populations-based surveys and explore its potential for producing bias in HIV prevalence estimates. Using longitudinal survey data from Malawi, we estimate the relationship between prior knowledge of HIV-positive status and subsequent refusal of an HIV test. We use that parameter to develop a heuristic model of refusal bias that is applied to six Demographic and Health Surveys, in which refusal by HIV status is not observed. The model only adjusts for refusal bias conditional on a completed interview. Ecologically, HIV prevalence, prior testing rates and refusal for HIV testing are highly correlated. Malawian data further suggest that amongst individuals who know their status, HIV-positive individuals are 4.62 (95% confidence interval, 2.60-8.21) times more likely to refuse testing than HIV-negative ones. On the basis of that parameter and other inputs from the Demographic and Health Surveys, our model predicts downward bias in national HIV prevalence estimates ranging from 1.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.7-2.9) for Senegal to 13.3% (95% confidence interval, 7.2-19.6) for Malawi. In absolute terms, bias in HIV prevalence estimates is negligible for Senegal but 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.3) percentage points for Malawi. Downward bias is more severe in urban populations. Because refusal rates are higher in men, seroprevalence surveys also tend to overestimate the female-to-male ratio of infections. Prior knowledge of HIV status informs decisions to participate in seroprevalence surveys. Informed refusals may produce bias in estimates of HIV prevalence and the sex ratio of infections.

Pancreatic β-Cell Function and Prognosis of Nondiabetic Patients With Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Pan, Yuesong; Chen, Weiqi; Jing, Jing; Zheng, Huaguang; Jia, Qian; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, Yongjun; He, Yan; Wang, Yilong

2017-11-01

Pancreatic β-cell dysfunction is an important factor in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study aimed to estimate the association between β-cell dysfunction and prognosis of nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke. Patients with ischemic stroke without a history of diabetes mellitus in the ACROSS-China (Abnormal Glucose Regulation in Patients with Acute Stroke across China) registry were included. Disposition index was estimated as computer-based model of homeostatic model assessment 2-β%/homeostatic model assessment 2-insulin resistance based on fasting C-peptide level. Outcomes included stroke recurrence, all-cause death, and dependency (modified Rankin Scale, 3-5) at 12 months after onset. Among 1171 patients, 37.2% were women with a mean age of 62.4 years. At 12 months, 167 (14.8%) patients had recurrent stroke, 110 (9.4%) died, and 184 (16.0%) had a dependency. The first quartile of the disposition index was associated with an increased risk of stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.57; 95% confidence interval, 2.13-5.99) and dependency (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-4.38); both the first and second quartiles of the disposition index were associated with an increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.09; 95% confidence interval, 2.51-10.33; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-5.03) compared with the fourth quartile. Using a multivariable regression model with restricted cubic spline, we observed an L-shaped association between the disposition index and the risk of each end point. In this large-scale registry, β-cell dysfunction was associated with an increased risk of 12-month poor prognosis in nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Clinical Outcomes of Transplanted Modified Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Stroke: A Phase 1/2a Study.

PubMed

Steinberg, Gary K; Kondziolka, Douglas; Wechsler, Lawrence R; Lunsford, L Dade; Coburn, Maria L; Billigen, Julia B; Kim, Anthony S; Johnson, Jeremiah N; Bates, Damien; King, Bill; Case, Casey; McGrogan, Michael; Yankee, Ernest W; Schwartz, Neil E

2016-07-01

Preclinical data suggest that cell-based therapies have the potential to improve stroke outcomes. Eighteen patients with stable, chronic stroke were enrolled in a 2-year, open-label, single-arm study to evaluate the safety and clinical outcomes of surgical transplantation of modified bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (SB623). All patients in the safety population (N=18) experienced at least 1 treatment-emergent adverse event. Six patients experienced 6 serious treatment-emergent adverse events; 2 were probably or definitely related to surgical procedure; none were related to cell treatment. All serious treatment-emergent adverse events resolved without sequelae. There were no dose-limiting toxicities or deaths. Sixteen patients completed 12 months of follow-up at the time of this analysis. Significant improvement from baseline (mean) was reported for: (1) European Stroke Scale: mean increase 6.88 (95% confidence interval, 3.5-10.3; P<0.001), (2) National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: mean decrease 2.00 (95% confidence interval, -2.7 to -1.3; P<0.001), (3) Fugl-Meyer total score: mean increase 19.20 (95% confidence interval, 11.4-27.0; P<0.001), and (4) Fugl-Meyer motor function total score: mean increase 11.40 (95% confidence interval, 4.6-18.2; P<0.001). No changes were observed in modified Rankin Scale. The area of magnetic resonance T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery signal change in the ipsilateral cortex 1 week after implantation significantly correlated with clinical improvement at 12 months (P<0.001 for European Stroke Scale). In this interim report, SB623 cells were safe and associated with improvement in clinical outcome end points at 12 months. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01287936. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The dose delivery effect of the different Beam ON interval in FFF SBRT: TrueBEAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawonwong, T.; Suriyapee, S.; Oonsiri, S.; Sanghangthum, T.; Oonsiri, P.

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the dose delivery effect of the different Beam ON interval in Flattening Filter Free Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (FFF-SBRT). The three 10MV-FFF SBRT plans (2 half rotating Rapid Arc, 9 to10 Gray/Fraction) were selected and irradiated in three different intervals (100%, 50% and 25%) using the RPM gating system. The plan verification was performed by the ArcCHECK for gamma analysis and the ionization chamber for point dose measurement. The dose delivery time of each interval were observed. For gamma analysis (2%&2mm criteria), the average percent pass of all plans for 100%, 50% and 25% intervals were 86.1±3.3%, 86.0±3.0% and 86.1±3.3%, respectively. For point dose measurement, the average ratios of each interval to the treatment planning were 1.012±0.015, 1.011±0.014 and 1.011±0.013 for 100%, 50% and 25% interval, respectively. The average dose delivery time was increasing from 74.3±5.0 second for 100% interval to 154.3±12.6 and 347.9±20.3 second for 50% and 25% interval, respectively. The same quality of the dose delivery from different Beam ON intervals in FFF-SBRT by TrueBEAM was illustrated. While the 100% interval represents the breath-hold treatment technique, the differences for the free-breathing using RPM gating system can be treated confidently.

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Readiness of Primary Care Practices for Medical Home Certification

PubMed Central

Clark, Sarah J.; Sakshaug, Joseph W.; Chen, Lena M.; Hollingsworth, John M.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of medical home infrastructure among primary care practices for children and identify practice characteristics associated with medical home infrastructure. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of restricted data files from 2007 and 2008 of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We mapped survey items to the 2011 National Committee on Quality Assurance’s Patient-Centered Medical home standards. Points were awarded for each “passed” element based on National Committee for Quality Assurance scoring, and we then calculated the percentage of the total possible points met for each practice. We used multivariate linear regression to assess associations between practice characteristics and the percentage of medical home infrastructure points attained. RESULTS: On average, pediatric practices attained 38% (95% confidence interval 34%–41%) of medical home infrastructure points, and family/general practices attained 36% (95% confidence interval 33%–38%). Practices scored higher on medical home elements related to direct patient care (eg, providing comprehensive health assessments) and lower in areas highly dependent on health information technology (eg, computerized prescriptions, test ordering, laboratory result viewing, or quality of care measurement and reporting). In multivariate analyses, smaller practice size was significantly associated with lower infrastructure scores. Practice ownership, urban versus rural location, and proportion of visits covered by public insurers were not consistently associated with a practice’s infrastructure score. CONCLUSIONS: Medical home programs need effective approaches to support practice transformation in the small practices that provide the vast majority of the primary care for children in the United States. PMID:23382438

Refractory urgency urinary incontinence treatment in women: impact of age on outcomes and complications.

PubMed

Komesu, Yuko M; Amundsen, Cindy L; Richter, Holly E; Erickson, Stephen W; Ackenbom, Mary F; Andy, Uduak U; Sung, Vivian W; Albo, Michael; Gregory, W Thomas; Paraiso, Marie Fidela; Wallace, Dennis

2018-01-01

Women with refractory urgency urinary incontinence (ie, unresponsive to behavioral and pharmacological interventions) are treated with onabotulinumtoxinA or sacral neuromodulation. The objective of the study was to compare treatment efficacy and adverse events in women <65 and ≥65 years old treated with onabotulinumtoxinA or sacral neuromodulation. This study was a planned secondary analysis of a multicenter, randomized trial that enrolled community-dwelling women with refractory urgency urinary incontinence to onabotulinumtoxinA or sacral neuromodulation treatments. The primary outcome was a change in mean daily urgency urinary incontinence episodes on a bladder diary over 6 months. Secondary outcomes included ≥75% urgency urinary incontinence episode reduction, change in symptom severity/quality of life, treatment satisfaction, and treatment-related adverse events. Both age groups experienced improvement in mean urgency urinary incontinence episodes per day following each treatment. There was no evidence that mean daily urgency urinary incontinence episode reduction differed between age groups for onabotulinumtoxinA (adjusted coefficient, -0.127, 95% confidence interval, -1.233 to 0.979; P = .821) or sacral neuromodulation (adjusted coefficient, -0.698, 95% confidence interval, -1.832 to 0.437; P = .227). Among those treated with onabotulinumtoxinA, women <65 years had 3.3-fold greater odds of ≥75% resolution than women ≥65 years (95% confidence interval, 1.56 -7.02). Women <65 years had a greater reduction in Overactive Bladder Questionnaire Short Form symptom bother scores compared with women ≥65 years by 7.49 points (95% confidence interval, -3.23 to -11.74), regardless of treatment group. There was no difference between quality of life improvement by age. Women ≥65 years had more urinary tract infections following onabotulinumtoxinA and sacral neuromodulation (odds ratio, 1.9, 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.3). There was no evidence of age differences in sacral neuromodulation revision/removal or catheterization following onabotulinumtoxinA treatment. Younger women experienced greater absolute continence, symptom improvement, and fewer urinary tract infections; both older and younger women had beneficial urgency urinary incontinence episode reduction, similar rates of other treatment adverse events, and improved quality of life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landman, Drew; Toro, Kenneth G.; Commo, Sean A.; Lynn, Keith C.

2014-01-01

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

Sex Differences in Health Care Requirements Aboard U.S. Navy Ships

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-20

nervous system symptoms (almost entirely headache), and then psychological symptoms (tension, nervousness). After that point, genitourinary problems...variable in accordance with procedures described by Lilienfeld and Lilienfeld .6 In those occupational specialties in which the confidence intervals do not...services such as inoculation, physical examination (e.g., check in, check out, reenlistment), pregnancy test , birth control prescription, Pap test

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in Youth Athletes

PubMed Central

Fox, J. Christian; Lahham, Shadi; Maldonado, Graciela; Klaus, Suzi; Aish, Bassil; Sylwanowicz, Lauren V.; Yanuck, Justin; Wilson, Sean P.; Shieh, Mason; Anderson, Craig L.; English, Carter; Mayer, Ryan; Mohan, Uthara R.

2018-01-01

Objectives Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a life-threatening genetic cardiovascular disease that often goes undetected in young athletes. Neither history nor physical examination are reliable to identify those at risk. The objective of this study is to determine whether minimally trained medical student volunteers can use ultrasound to screen for HCM. Methods This was a prospective enrollment of young athletes performed at 12 area high schools and three area colleges, between May 2012 and August 2013. All participants underwent point-of-care ultrasound performed screening for HCM by trained medical students and reviewed by a pediatric cardiologist. An interventricular septum to left ventricular posterior wall ratio greater than 1.25 was considered to be abnormal (positive screen). Results A total of 2332 participants were enrolled. There were 137 (5.8%) with a positive screening for HCM, of which 7 (5.1%) were confirmed to have HCM by a pediatric cardiologist. In a small cohort with positive screen for HCM, there was a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 59.04 to 100%) and 4.86% (95% confidence interval, 1.98 to 9.76%) positive predictive value of for having HCM. Conclusions Volunteer medical students, using point-of-care ultrasound, were able to effectively screen for HCM in young athletes. PMID:28258593

Real-time RT-PCR high-resolution melting curve analysis and multiplex RT-PCR to detect and differentiate grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 variant groups I, II, III and VI.

PubMed

Bester, Rachelle; Jooste, Anna E C; Maree, Hans J; Burger, Johan T

2012-09-27

Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) is the main contributing agent of leafroll disease worldwide. Four of the six GLRaV-3 variant groups known have been found in South Africa, but their individual contribution to leafroll disease is unknown. In order to study the pathogenesis of leafroll disease, a sensitive and accurate diagnostic assay is required that can detect different variant groups of GLRaV-3. In this study, a one-step real-time RT-PCR, followed by high-resolution melting (HRM) curve analysis for the simultaneous detection and identification of GLRaV-3 variants of groups I, II, III and VI, was developed. A melting point confidence interval for each variant group was calculated to include at least 90% of all melting points observed. A multiplex RT-PCR protocol was developed to these four variant groups in order to assess the efficacy of the real-time RT-PCR HRM assay. A universal primer set for GLRaV-3 targeting the heat shock protein 70 homologue (Hsp70h) gene of GLRaV-3 was designed that is able to detect GLRaV-3 variant groups I, II, III and VI and differentiate between them with high-resolution melting curve analysis. The real-time RT-PCR HRM and the multiplex RT-PCR were optimized using 121 GLRaV-3 positive samples. Due to a considerable variation in melting profile observed within each GLRaV-3 group, a confidence interval of above 90% was calculated for each variant group, based on the range and distribution of melting points. The intervals of groups I and II could not be distinguished and a 95% joint confidence interval was calculated for simultaneous detection of group I and II variants. An additional primer pair targeting GLRaV-3 ORF1a was developed that can be used in a subsequent real-time RT-PCR HRM to differentiate between variants of groups I and II. Additionally, the multiplex RT-PCR successfully validated 94.64% of the infections detected with the real-time RT-PCR HRM. The real-time RT-PCR HRM provides a sensitive, automated and rapid tool to detect and differentiate different variant groups in order to study the epidemiology of leafroll disease.

Initial Validation of NDVI time seriesfrom AVHRR, VEGETATION, and MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Brown, Molly E.; Tucker, Jim; Justice, Christopher O.

2004-01-01

The paper will address Theme 7: Multi-sensor opportunities for VEGETATION. We present analysis of a long-term vegetation record derived from three moderate resolution sensors: AVHRR, VEGETATION, and MODIS. While empirically based manipulation can ensure agreement between the three data sets, there is a need to validate the series. This paper uses atmospherically corrected ETM+ data available over the EOS Land Validation Core Sites as an independent data set with which to compare the time series. We use ETM+ data from 15 globally distributed sites, 7 of which contain repeat coverage in time. These high-resolution data are compared to the values of each sensor by spatially aggregating the ETM+ to each specific sensors' spatial coverage. The aggregated ETM+ value provides a point estimate for a specific site on a specific date. The standard deviation of that point estimate is used to construct a confidence interval for that point estimate. The values from each moderate resolution sensor are then evaluated with respect to that confident interval. Result show that AVHRR, VEGETATION, and MODIS data can be combined to assess temporal uncertainties and address data continuity issues and that the atmospherically corrected ETM+ data provide an independent source with which to compare that record. The final product is a consistent time series climate record that links historical observations to current and future measurements.

Identification of Intensity Ratio Break Points from Photon Arrival Trajectories in Ratiometric Single Molecule Spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Bingemann, Dieter; Allen, Rachel M.

2012-01-01

We describe a statistical method to analyze dual-channel photon arrival trajectories from single molecule spectroscopy model-free to identify break points in the intensity ratio. Photons are binned with a short bin size to calculate the logarithm of the intensity ratio for each bin. Stochastic photon counting noise leads to a near-normal distribution of this logarithm and the standard student t-test is used to find statistically significant changes in this quantity. In stochastic simulations we determine the significance threshold for the t-test’s p-value at a given level of confidence. We test the method’s sensitivity and accuracy indicating that the analysis reliably locates break points with significant changes in the intensity ratio with little or no error in realistic trajectories with large numbers of small change points, while still identifying a large fraction of the frequent break points with small intensity changes. Based on these results we present an approach to estimate confidence intervals for the identified break point locations and recommend a bin size to choose for the analysis. The method proves powerful and reliable in the analysis of simulated and actual data of single molecule reorientation in a glassy matrix. PMID:22837704

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Influence of Ejection Fraction on Outcomes and Efficacy of Sacubitril/Valsartan (LCZ696) in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction: The Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure (PARADIGM-HF) Trial.

PubMed

Solomon, Scott D; Claggett, Brian; Desai, Akshay S; Packer, Milton; Zile, Michael; Swedberg, Karl; Rouleau, Jean L; Shi, Victor C; Starling, Randall C; Kozan, Ömer; Dukat, Andrej; Lefkowitz, Martin P; McMurray, John J V

2016-03-01

The angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor sacubitril/valsartan (LCZ696) reduced cardiovascular morbidity and mortality compared with enalapril in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (EF) in the Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure (PARADIGM-HF) trial. We evaluated the influence of EF on clinical outcomes and on the effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril. Eight thousand three hundred ninety-nine patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV HF with reduced EF [left ventricular EF (LVEF) ≤40%] were randomized to sacubitril/valsartan 97/103 mg twice daily versus enalapril 10 mg twice daily and followed for a median of 27 months. The primary study end point was cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization. LVEF was assessed at the sites and recorded on case report forms. We related LVEF to study outcomes and assessed the effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan across the LVEF spectrum. The mean LVEF in PARADIGM-HF, reported by sites, was 29.5 (interquartile range, 25-34). The risk of all outcomes increased with decreasing LVEF. Each 5-point reduction in LVEF was associated with a 9% increased risk of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.13; P<0.001), a 9% increased risk for CV death (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.14), a 9% increased risk in HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.14) and a 7% increased risk in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.12) in adjusted analyses. Sacubitril/valsartan was effective across the LVEF spectrum, with no evidence of heterogeneity, when modeled either in tertiles (P interaction=0.87) or continuously (P interaction=0.95). In patients with HF and reduced EF enrolled in PARADIGM-HF, LVEF was a significant and independent predictor of all outcomes. Sacubitril/valsartan was effective at reducing cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization throughout the LVEF spectrum. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01035255. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

High-dose rifapentine with moxifloxacin for pulmonary tuberculosis.

PubMed

Jindani, Amina; Harrison, Thomas S; Nunn, Andrew J; Phillips, Patrick P J; Churchyard, Gavin J; Charalambous, Salome; Hatherill, Mark; Geldenhuys, Hennie; McIlleron, Helen M; Zvada, Simbarashe P; Mungofa, Stanley; Shah, Nasir A; Zizhou, Simukai; Magweta, Lloyd; Shepherd, James; Nyirenda, Sambayawo; van Dijk, Janneke H; Clouting, Heather E; Coleman, David; Bateson, Anna L E; McHugh, Timothy D; Butcher, Philip D; Mitchison, Denny A

2014-10-23

Tuberculosis regimens that are shorter and simpler than the current 6-month daily regimen are needed. We randomly assigned patients with newly diagnosed, smear-positive, drug-sensitive tuberculosis to one of three regimens: a control regimen that included 2 months of ethambutol, isoniazid, rifampicin, and pyrazinamide administered daily followed by 4 months of daily isoniazid and rifampicin; a 4-month regimen in which the isoniazid in the control regimen was replaced by moxifloxacin administered daily for 2 months followed by moxifloxacin and 900 mg of rifapentine administered twice weekly for 2 months; or a 6-month regimen in which isoniazid was replaced by daily moxifloxacin for 2 months followed by one weekly dose of both moxifloxacin and 1200 mg of rifapentine for 4 months. Sputum specimens were examined on microscopy and after culture at regular intervals. The primary end point was a composite treatment failure and relapse, with noninferiority based on a margin of 6 percentage points and 90% confidence intervals. We enrolled a total of 827 patients from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Zambia; 28% of patients were coinfected with the human immunodefiency virus. In the per-protocol analysis, the proportion of patients with an unfavorable response was 4.9% in the control group, 3.2% in the 6-month group (adjusted difference from control, -1.8 percentage points; 90% confidence interval [CI], -6.1 to 2.4), and 18.2% in the 4-month group (adjusted difference from control, 13.6 percentage points; 90% CI, 8.1 to 19.1). In the modified intention-to-treat analysis these proportions were 14.4% in the control group, 13.7% in the 6-month group (adjusted difference from control, 0.4 percentage points; 90% CI, -4.7 to 5.6), and 26.9% in the 4-month group (adjusted difference from control, 13.1 percentage points; 90% CI, 6.8 to 19.4). The 6-month regimen that included weekly administration of high-dose rifapentine and moxifloxacin was as effective as the control regimen. The 4-month regimen was not noninferior to the control regimen. (Funded by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership and the Wellcome Trust; RIFAQUIN Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN44153044.).

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Hypocalcaemia as a prognostic factor of early mortality in moderate and severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Vinas-Rios, Juan Manuel; Sanchez-Aguilar, Martin; Sanchez-Rodriguez, Jose Juan; Gonzalez-Aguirre, Daniel; Heinen, Christian; Meyer, Frerk; Kretschmer, Thomas

2014-02-01

Our main objective was to evaluate whether serum hypocalcaemia on the third day [defined as < 2.1 mmol/l (8.5 mg/dl)] is a prognostic factor for early mortality after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). We developed an ambispective comparative case control study. We evaluated clinical profiles from included patients from January 2005 to July 2009 and we prospectively recruited additional patients from August 2009 to July 2011. Patients were between 1 and 89 years old and had a Glasgow Coma Scale of 3-12 points following TBI. We calculated an Odds Ratio of 5.2 (Confidence Intervals 95%: 4.48 to 6.032) for hypocalcaemia on day three, which was associated with death. Retrospectively (January 2005 to July 2009) we compiled data from 81 patients. Prospectively (August 2009 to July 2011) we recruited 41 patients. The adjusted variables in the logistic regression final model were: serum calcium on day three (Odds Ratio 3.5, Confidence Intervals 95%: 1·12 to 13·61, P < 0·028) and anisocoria (Odds Ratio 8·24, Confidence Intervals 95%: 1·3 to 67·35, P < 0·019) obtaining an adjusted R2 of 0·22 (P < 0·005). The serum levels of calcium on day three could be useful for the prediction of mortality in patients with moderate and severe TBI.

Low vs. higher-dose dark chocolate and blood pressure in cardiovascular high-risk patients.

PubMed

Desch, Steffen; Kobler, Daniela; Schmidt, Johanna; Sonnabend, Melanie; Adams, Volker; Sareban, Mahdi; Eitel, Ingo; Blüher, Matthias; Schuler, Gerhard; Thiele, Holger

2010-06-01

Dark chocolate may have blood pressure-lowering properties. We conducted a prospective randomized open-label blinded end-point design trial to study a potential dose dependency of the presumed antihypertensive effect of dark chocolate by directly comparing low vs. higher doses of dark chocolate over the course of 3 months. We enrolled a total of 102 patients with prehypertension/stage 1 hypertension and established cardiovascular end-organ damage or diabetes mellitus. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either 6 or 25 g/day of flavanol-rich dark chocolate for 3 months. The difference in 24-h mean blood pressure between groups was defined as the primary outcome measure. Significant reductions in mean ambulatory 24-h blood pressure were observed between baseline and follow-up in both groups (6 g/day: -2.3 mm Hg, 95% confidence interval -4.1 to -0.4; 25 g/day: -1.9 mm Hg, 95% confidence interval -3.6 to -0.2). There were no significant differences in blood pressure changes between groups. In the higher-dose group, a slight increase in body weight was noted (0.8 kg, 95% confidence interval 0.06 to 1.6). The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that dark chocolate may be associated with a reduction in blood pressure (BP). However, due to the lack of a control group, confounding may be possible and the results should be interpreted with caution.

Changes in Body Weight and Health-Related Quality of Life: 2 Cohorts of US Women

PubMed Central

Pan, An; Kawachi, Ichiro; Luo, Nan; Manson, JoAnn E.; Willett, Walter C.; Hu, Frank B.; Okereke, Olivia I.

2014-01-01

Studies have shown that body weight is a determinant of health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, few studies have examined long-term weight change with changes in HRQoL. We followed 52,682 women aged 46–71 years in the Nurses' Health Study (in 1992–2000) and 52,587 women aged 29–46 years in the Nurses’ Health Study II (in 1993–2001). Body weight was self-reported, HRQoL was measured by the Medical Outcomes Study's 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, and both were updated every 4 years. The relationship between changes in weight and HRQoL scores was evaluated at 4-year intervals by using a generalized linear regression model with multivariate adjustment for baseline age, ethnicity, menopausal status, and changes in comorbidities and lifestyle factors. Weight gain of 15 lbs (1 lb = 0.45 kg) or more over a 4-year period was associated with 2.05-point lower (95% confidence interval: 2.14, 1.95) physical component scores, whereas weight loss of 15 lbs or more was associated with 0.89-point higher (95% confidence interval: 0.75, 1.03) physical component scores. Inverse associations were also found between weight change and physical function, role limitations due to physical problems, bodily pain, general health, and vitality. However, the relations of weight change with mental component scores, social functioning, mental health, and role limitations due to emotional problems were small. PMID:24966215

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Hazard ratio estimation and inference in clinical trials with many tied event times.

PubMed

Mehrotra, Devan V; Zhang, Yiwei

2018-06-13

The medical literature contains numerous examples of randomized clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints in which large numbers of events accrued over relatively short follow-up periods, resulting in many tied event times. A generally common feature across such examples was that the logrank test was used for hypothesis testing and the Cox proportional hazards model was used for hazard ratio estimation. We caution that this common practice is particularly risky in the setting of many tied event times for two reasons. First, the estimator of the hazard ratio can be severely biased if the Breslow tie-handling approximation for the Cox model (the default in SAS and Stata software) is used. Second, the 95% confidence interval for the hazard ratio can include one even when the corresponding logrank test p-value is less than 0.05. To help establish a better practice, with applicability for both superiority and noninferiority trials, we use theory and simulations to contrast Wald and score tests based on well-known tie-handling approximations for the Cox model. Our recommendation is to report the Wald test p-value and corresponding confidence interval based on the Efron approximation. The recommended test is essentially as powerful as the logrank test, the accompanying point and interval estimates of the hazard ratio have excellent statistical properties even in settings with many tied event times, inferential alignment between the p-value and confidence interval is guaranteed, and implementation is straightforward using commonly used software. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical procedures for determination and verification of minimum reporting levels for drinking water methods.

PubMed

Winslow, Stephen D; Pepich, Barry V; Martin, John J; Hallberg, George R; Munch, David J; Frebis, Christopher P; Hedrick, Elizabeth J; Krop, Richard A

2006-01-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water has developed a single-laboratory quantitation procedure: the lowest concentration minimum reporting level (LCMRL). The LCMRL is the lowest true concentration for which future recovery is predicted to fall, with high confidence (99%), between 50% and 150%. The procedure takes into account precision and accuracy. Multiple concentration replicates are processed through the entire analytical method and the data are plotted as measured sample concentration (y-axis) versus true concentration (x-axis). If the data support an assumption of constant variance over the concentration range, an ordinary least-squares regression line is drawn; otherwise, a variance-weighted least-squares regression is used. Prediction interval lines of 99% confidence are drawn about the regression. At the points where the prediction interval lines intersect with data quality objective lines of 50% and 150% recovery, lines are dropped to the x-axis. The higher of the two values is the LCMRL. The LCMRL procedure is flexible because the data quality objectives (50-150%) and the prediction interval confidence (99%) can be varied to suit program needs. The LCMRL determination is performed during method development only. A simpler procedure for verification of data quality objectives at a given minimum reporting level (MRL) is also presented. The verification procedure requires a single set of seven samples taken through the entire method procedure. If the calculated prediction interval is contained within data quality recovery limits (50-150%), the laboratory performance at the MRL is verified.

Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions With Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

PubMed Central

Paek, Insu

2015-01-01

The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on four confidence interval (CI) procedures for coefficient alpha in terms of coverage rate (CR), length, and the degree of asymmetry of CI estimates. In addition, interval estimates of coefficient alpha when data follow the essentially tau-equivalent condition were investigated as a supplement to the case of dichotomous data with examinee guessing. For dichotomous data with guessing, the results did not reveal salient negative effects of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics (sample size, test length, coefficient alpha levels) on CR and the degree of asymmetry, but the effect of guessing was salient as a main effect and an interaction effect with sample size on the length of the CI estimates, making longer CI estimates as guessing increases, especially when combined with a small sample size. Other important effects (e.g., CI procedures on CR) are also discussed. PMID:29795863

Spillover Effects of Adult Medicaid Expansions on Children's Use of Preventive Services.

PubMed

Venkataramani, Maya; Pollack, Craig Evan; Roberts, Eric T

2017-12-01

Since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid enrollment has increased by ∼17 million adults, including many low-income parents. One potentially important, but little studied, consequence of expanding health insurance for parents is its effect on children's receipt of preventive services. By using state Medicaid eligibility thresholds linked to the 2001-2013 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys, we assessed the relationship between changes in adult Medicaid eligibility and children's likelihood of receiving annual well-child visits (WCVs). In instrumental variable analyses, we used these changes in Medicaid eligibility to estimate the relationship between parental enrollment in Medicaid and children's receipt of WCVs. Our analytic sample consisted of 50 622 parent-child dyads in families with incomes <200% of the federal poverty level, surveyed from 2001 to 2013. On average, a 10-point increase in a state's parental Medicaid eligibility (measured relative to the federal poverty level) was associated with a 0.27 percentage point higher probability that a child received an annual WCV (95% confidence interval: 0.058 to 0.48 percentage points, P = .012). Instrumental variable analyses revealed that parental enrollment in Medicaid was associated with a 29 percentage point higher probability that their child received an annual WCV (95% confidence interval: 11 to 47 percentage points, P = .002). In our study, we demonstrate that Medicaid expansions targeted at low-income adults are associated with increased receipt of recommended pediatric preventive care for their children. This finding reveals an important spillover effect of parental insurance coverage that should be considered in future policy decisions surrounding adult Medicaid eligibility. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

The effect of Fisher information matrix approximation methods in population optimal design calculations.

PubMed

Strömberg, Eric A; Nyberg, Joakim; Hooker, Andrew C

2016-12-01

With the increasing popularity of optimal design in drug development it is important to understand how the approximations and implementations of the Fisher information matrix (FIM) affect the resulting optimal designs. The aim of this work was to investigate the impact on design performance when using two common approximations to the population model and the full or block-diagonal FIM implementations for optimization of sampling points. Sampling schedules for two example experiments based on population models were optimized using the FO and FOCE approximations and the full and block-diagonal FIM implementations. The number of support points was compared between the designs for each example experiment. The performance of these designs based on simulation/estimations was investigated by computing bias of the parameters as well as through the use of an empirical D-criterion confidence interval. Simulations were performed when the design was computed with the true parameter values as well as with misspecified parameter values. The FOCE approximation and the Full FIM implementation yielded designs with more support points and less clustering of sample points than designs optimized with the FO approximation and the block-diagonal implementation. The D-criterion confidence intervals showed no performance differences between the full and block diagonal FIM optimal designs when assuming true parameter values. However, the FO approximated block-reduced FIM designs had higher bias than the other designs. When assuming parameter misspecification in the design evaluation, the FO Full FIM optimal design was superior to the FO block-diagonal FIM design in both of the examples.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics ofmore » various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization techniques. Results: For the prostate and head/neck cases studied, the pass rates obtained with gamma analysis of high density dose planes were 2%-5% higher than respective %/DTA composite analysis on average (ranging as high as 11%), depending on tolerances and normalization. Meanwhile, the pass rates obtained via local normalization were 2%-12% lower than with global maximum normalization on average (ranging as high as 27%), depending on tolerances and calculation method. Repositioning of simulated low-density sampled grids leads to a distribution of possible pass rates for each measured/calculated dose plane pair. These distributions can be predicted using a binomial distribution in order to establish confidence intervals that depend largely on the sampling density and the observed pass rate (i.e., the degree of difference between measured and calculated dose). These results can be extended to apply to 3D arrays of detectors, as well. Conclusions: Dose plane QA analysis can be greatly affected by choice of calculation metric and user-defined parameters, and so all pass rates should be reported with a complete description of calculation method. Pass rates for low-density arrays are subject to statistical uncertainty (vs. the high-density pass rate), but these sampling errors can be modeled using statistical confidence intervals derived from the sampled pass rate and detector density. Thus, pass rates for low-density array measurements should be accompanied by a confidence interval indicating the uncertainty of each pass rate.« less

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Breastfeeding and intelligence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Horta, Bernardo L; Loret de Mola, Christian; Victora, Cesar G

2015-12-01

This study was aimed at systematically reviewing evidence of the association between breastfeeding and performance in intelligence tests. Two independent searches were carried out using Medline, LILACS, SCIELO and Web of Science. Studies restricted to infants and those where estimates were not adjusted for stimulation or interaction at home were excluded. Fixed- and random-effects models were used to pool the effect estimates, and a random-effects regression was used to assess potential sources of heterogeneity. We included 17 studies with 18 estimates of the relationship between breastfeeding and performance in intelligence tests. In a random-effects model, breastfed subjects achieved a higher IQ [mean difference: 3.44 points (95% confidence interval: 2.30; 4.58)]. We found no evidence of publication bias. Studies that controlled for maternal IQ showed a smaller benefit from breastfeeding [mean difference 2.62 points (95% confidence interval: 1.25; 3.98)]. In the meta-regression, none of the study characteristics explained the heterogeneity among the studies. Breastfeeding is related to improved performance in intelligence tests. A positive effect of breastfeeding on cognition was also observed in a randomised trial. This suggests that the association is causal. ©2015 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Unmanned aerial vehicle-based structure from motion biomass inventory estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedell, Emily; Leslie, Monique; Fankhauser, Katie; Burnett, Jonathan; Wing, Michael G.; Thomas, Evan A.

2017-04-01

Riparian vegetation restoration efforts require cost-effective, accurate, and replicable impact assessments. We present a method to use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a GoPro digital camera to collect photogrammetric data of a 0.8-ha riparian restoration. A three-dimensional point cloud was created from the photos using "structure from motion" techniques. The point cloud was analyzed and compared to traditional, ground-based monitoring techniques. Ground-truth data were collected on 6.3% of the study site and averaged across the entire site to report stem heights in stems/ha in three height classes. The project site was divided into four analysis sections, one for derivation of parameters used in the UAV data analysis and the remaining three sections reserved for method validation. Comparing the ground-truth data to the UAV generated data produced an overall error of 21.6% and indicated an R2 value of 0.98. A Bland-Altman analysis indicated a 95% probability that the UAV stems/section result will be within 61 stems/section of the ground-truth data. The ground-truth data are reported with an 80% confidence interval of ±1032 stems/ha thus, the UAV was able to estimate stems well within this confidence interval.

Efficacy of an asynchronous electronic curriculum in emergency medicine education in the United States.

PubMed

Wray, Alisa; Bennett, Kathryn; Boysen-Osborn, Megan; Wiechmann, Warren; Toohey, Shannon

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to measure the effect of an iPad-based asynchronous curriculum on emergency medicine resident performance on the in-training exam (ITE). We hypothesized that the implementation of an asynchronous curriculum (replacing 1 hour of weekly didactic time) would result in non-inferior ITE scores compared to the historical scores of residents who had participated in the traditional 5-hour weekly didactic curriculum. The study was a retrospective, non-inferiority study. conducted at the University of California, Irvine Emergency Medicine Residency Program. We compared ITE scores from 2012 and 2013, when there were 5 weekly hours of didactic content, with scores from 2014 and 2015, when 1 hour of conference was replaced with asynchro-nous content. Examination results were compared using a non-inferiority data analysis with a 10% margin of difference. Using a non-inferiority test with a 95% confidence interval, there was no difference between the 2 groups (before and after implementation of asynchronous learning), as the confidence interval for the change of the ITE was -3.5 to 2.3 points, whereas the 10% non-inferiority margin was 7.8 points. Replacing 1 hour of didactic conference with asynchronous learning showed no negative impact on resident ITE scores.

Triatomine Infestation in Guatemala: Spatial Assessment after Two Rounds of Vector Control

PubMed Central

Manne, Jennifer; Nakagawa, Jun; Yamagata, Yoichi; Goehler, Alexander; Brownstein, John S.; Castro, Marcia C.

2012-01-01

In 2000, the Guatemalan Ministry of Health initiated a Chagas disease program to control Rhodnius prolixus and Triatoma dimidiata by periodic house spraying with pyrethroid insecticides to characterize infestation patterns and analyze the contribution of programmatic practices to these patterns. Spatial infestation patterns at three time points were identified using the Getis-Ord Gi*(d) test. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of reinfestation after pyrethroid insecticide administration. Spatial analysis showed high and low clusters of infestation at three time points. After two rounds of spray, 178 communities persistently fell in high infestation clusters. A time lapse between rounds of vector control greater than 6 months was associated with 1.54 (95% confidence interval = 1.07–2.23) times increased odds of reinfestation after first spray, whereas a time lapse of greater than 1 year was associated with 2.66 (95% confidence interval = 1.85–3.83) times increased odds of reinfestation after first spray compared with localities where the time lapse was less than 180 days. The time lapse between rounds of vector control should remain under 1 year. Spatial analysis can guide targeted vector control efforts by enabling tracking of reinfestation hotspots and improved targeting of resources. PMID:22403315

Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used: evaluation of an ad-hoc procedure.

PubMed

Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen-Tangmose, Sara; Lynnerup, Niels; Boldsen, Jesper; Thevissen, Patrick

2016-03-01

When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple indicators is not the calculation of a combined point estimate for age but the construction of an appropriate prediction interval. Ignoring the correlation between the age indicators results in intervals being too small. Boldsen et al. (2002) presented an ad-hoc procedure to construct an approximate confidence interval without the need to model the multivariate correlation structure between the indicators. The aim of the present paper is to bring under attention this pragmatic approach and to evaluate its performance in a practical setting. This is all the more needed since recent publications ignore the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.

Clinical evaluation of an inspiratory impedance threshold device during standard cardiopulmonary resuscitation in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Aufderheide, Tom P; Pirrallo, Ronald G; Provo, Terry A; Lurie, Keith G

2005-04-01

To determine whether an impedance threshold device, designed to enhance circulation, would increase acute resuscitation rates for patients in cardiac arrest receiving conventional manual cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Prospective, randomized, double-blind, intention-to-treat. Out-of-hospital trial conducted in the Milwaukee, WI, emergency medical services system. Adults in cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac etiology. On arrival of advanced life support, patients were treated with standard cardiopulmonary resuscitation combined with either an active or a sham impedance threshold device. We measured safety and efficacy of the impedance threshold device; the primary end point was intensive care unit admission. Statistical analyses performed included the chi-square test and multivariate regression analysis. One hundred sixteen patients were treated with a sham impedance threshold device, and 114 patients were treated with an active impedance threshold device. Overall intensive care unit admission rates were 17% with the sham device vs. 25% in the active impedance threshold device (p = .13; odds ratio, 1.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.87, 3.10). Patients in the subgroup presenting with pulseless electrical activity had intensive care unit admission and 24-hr survival rates of 20% and 12% in sham (n = 25) vs. 52% and 30% in active impedance threshold device groups (n = 27) (p = .018, odds ratio, 4.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.28, 14.5, and p = .12, odds ratio, 3.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.74, 13.0, respectively). A post hoc analysis of patients with pulseless electrical activity at any time during the cardiac arrest revealed that intensive care unit and 24-hr survival rates were 20% and 11% in the sham (n = 56) vs. 41% and 27% in the active impedance threshold device groups (n = 49) (p = .018, odds ratio, 2.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.19, 6.67, and p = .037, odds ratio, 3.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.07, 8.96, respectively). There were no statistically significant differences in outcomes for patients presenting in ventricular fibrillation and asystole. Adverse event and complication rates were also similar. During this first clinical trial of the impedance threshold device during standard cardiopulmonary resuscitation, use of the new device more than doubled short-term survival rates in patients presenting with pulseless electrical activity. A larger clinical trial is underway to determine the potential longer term benefits of the impedance threshold device in cardiac arrest.

Modern medical treatment with or without carotid endarterectomy for severe asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Kolos, Igor; Troitskiy, Alexandr; Balakhonova, Tatiana; Shariya, Merab; Skrypnik, Denis; Tvorogova, Tatiana; Deev, Alexandr; Boytsov, Sergey

2015-10-01

This study assessed the value of modern medical treatment (MMT) with and without carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in patients with asymptomatic severe carotid artery stenosis. We conducted a randomized trial involving 55 patients with 70% to 79% carotid stenosis at three Russian centers. Between 2009 and 2013, 31 patients were randomized to undergo CEA with MMT (CEA group) and 24 to receive MMT alone. The primary end point was nonfatal ipsilateral stroke or death from any cause during a follow-up period of 5.0 years. The secondary end point was any nonfatal stroke, carotid revascularization, or death from any cause during follow-up. The trial was stopped after a median follow-up of 3.3 years (maximum, 5.0 years). There were two primary events in the CEA group and nine events in the MMT group. The 3.3-year cumulative primary event rates were 6.5% in the CEA group and 37.5% in the MMT group (hazard ratio for the MMT group, 5.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-16.79; P = .008). The 3.3-year cumulative secondary end point was 12.9% in the CEA group and 50.0% in the MMT group (hazard ratio for the MMT group, 4.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.55-11.53; P = .0048). CEA as an initial management strategy could reduce the risk of death and major cerebrovascular events when added to MMT. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Postnatal depression in a community-based study of women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

March, Wendy A; Whitrow, Melissa J; Davies, Michael J; Fernandez, Renae C; Moore, Vivienne M

2018-07-01

Women with polycystic ovary syndrome are susceptible to depression and anxiety and so may also be at risk for postnatal depression. This study investigates whether women with polycystic ovary syndrome have an elevated risk of postnatal depression. Cross-sectional data for parous women (n = 566) were available from a birth cohort. Polycystic ovary syndrome was diagnosed using the Rotterdam criteria. Details of reproductive history, pregnancy, birth, and postnatal depression were obtained through structured interview. Comparisons were made between women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome using logistic regression analysis, including the investigation of interactions. A positive but statistically non-significant association was found between polycystic ovary syndrome and postnatal depression (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.9-2.9). Compared with their counterparts, women with polycystic ovary syndrome were substantially more likely: to have difficulty conceiving (odds ratio 5.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-9.4), to have conceived with medical assistance (odds ratio 11.6, 95% confidence interval 5.5-24.4), and to have pregnancy complications (gestational diabetes, pregnancy-induced hypertension, or preeclampsia; odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.5). Where women with polycystic ovary syndrome had a history of miscarriage or conceived with medical assistance, the combination interacted (p = 0.06 and p < 0.05, respectively), with over half of such women having postnatal depression. Although women with polycystic ovary syndrome may not have an excess risk of postnatal depression overall, those who had suffered a miscarriage or required medical assistance to conceive were at substantially elevated risk. Findings point to vulnerability inherent in polycystic ovary syndrome being amplified, either by stressful experiences on the pathway to pregnancy/childbirth or by specific fertility treatment regimens. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Memory performance on the story recall test and prediction of cognitive dysfunction progression in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's dementia.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Hwan; Park, Hyuntae; Sohn, Sang Wuk; Kim, Sungjae; Park, Kyung Won

2017-10-01

To determine the factors that influence diagnosis and differentiation of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's dementia (AD) by comparing memory test results at baseline with those at 1-2-year follow up. We consecutively recruited 23 healthy participants, 44 MCI patients and 27 patients with very mild AD according to the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Diseases and Stroke/Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorder Association criteria for probable Alzheimer's disease and Petersen's clinical diagnostic criteria. We carried out detailed neuropsychological tests, including the Story Recall Test (SRT) and the Seoul Verbal Learning Test, for all participants. We defined study participants as the "progression group" as follows: (i) participants who showed conversion to dementia from the MCI state; and (ii) those with dementia who showed more than a three-point decrement in their Mini-Mental State Examination scores with accompanying functional decline from baseline status, which were ascertained by physician's clinical judgment. The SRT delayed recall scores were significantly lower in the patients with mild AD than in those with MCI and after progression. Lower (relative risk 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.1-1.6) and higher SRT delayed recall scores (relative risk 2.1, confidence interval 1.0-2.8), and two-test combined immediate and delayed recall scores (relative risk 2.0, confidence interval 0.9-2.3; and relative risk 2.8, confidence interval 1.1-4.2, respectively) were independent predictors of progression in a stepwise multiple adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, with age, sex, depression and educational level forced into the model. The present study suggests that the SRT delayed recall score independently predicts progression to dementia in patients with MCI. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 1603-1609. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Presence of Late Gadolinium Enhancement by Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Among Patients With Suspected Cardiac Sarcoidosis Is Associated With Adverse Cardiovascular Prognosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hulten, Edward; Agarwal, Vikram; Cahill, Michael; Cole, Geoff; Vita, Tomas; Parrish, Scott; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer; Murthy, Venkatesh L; Kwong, Raymond; Di Carli, Marcelo F; Blankstein, Ron

2016-09-01

Individuals with cardiac sarcoidosis have an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmia and death. Several small cohort studies have evaluated the ability of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to predict adverse cardiovascular events. However, studies have yielded inconsistent results, and some analyses were underpowered. Therefore, we sought to systematically review and perform meta-analysis of the prognostic value of cardiac MRI for patients with known or suspected cardiac sarcoidosis. We systematically searched for cohort studies of patients with known sarcoidosis with suspected cardiac involvement who underwent cardiac MRI with LGE with at least 12 months of either prospective or retrospective follow-up data regarding post-MRI adverse cardiovascular outcomes. We identified 7 studies of 694 subjects (mean age 53; 42% men).One hundred and ninety-nine patients (29%) were LGE positive. All-cause mortality occurred in 19 LGE-positive versus 17 LGE-negative subjects (annualized incidence, 3.1% versus 0.6%). The pooled relative risk was 3.38 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-10.7; P=0.04). Cardiovascular mortality occurred in 10 LGE-positive versus 2 LGE-negative subjects (annualized incidence, 1.9% versus 0.3%; relative risk 10.7 [95% confidence interval, 1.34-86.3]; P=0.03). Ventricular arrhythmia occurred in 41 LGE-positive versus 0 LGE-negative subjects (annualized incidence, 5.9% versus 0%; relative risk 19.5 [95% confidence interval, 2.68-143]; P=0.003). A combined end point of death or ventricular arrhythmia occurred in 64 LGE-positive versus 18 LGE-negative subjects (annualized incidence, 8.8% versus 0.6%; relative risk 6.20 [95% confidence interval, 2.47-15.6]; P<0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity for any outcomes. LGE is associated with future cardiovascular death and ventricular arrhythmia among patients referred to MRI for known or suspected cardiac sarcoidosis. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Sleep Duration and Overweight/Obesity in Preschool-Aged Children: A Prospective Study of up to 48,922 Children of the Jiaxing Birth Cohort.

PubMed

Wang, Fenglei; Liu, Huijuan; Wan, Yi; Li, Jing; Chen, Yu; Zheng, Jusheng; Huang, Tao; Li, Duo

2016-11-01

To examine the association between sleep duration and overweight/obesity in preschool-aged children. A total of 48,922 3-year old children enrolled in the Jiaxing Birth Cohort, who provided sleep information and anthropometric data, were included in the present study as baseline and were followed up to 5 years of age. Sleep duration was categorized as ≤ 10 hours, 11-12 hours, and ≥ 13 hours. Overweight and obesity were defined according to the cut point criteria in China. Prevalence ratios and risk ratios were used to assess the association between sleep duration and risk of overweight/obesity. In cross-sectional analyses at baseline, the adjusted prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) of overweight (with 11-12 h of sleep being considered the reference group) for children sleeping ≤ 10 h and ≥ 13 h were 1.13 (1.06-1.20) and 1.16 (1.09-1.24), respectively, whereas the adjusted prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) of obesity were 1.25 (1.11-1.40) and 1.25 (1.11-1.42). In longitudinal analyses, the adjusted risk ratios (95% confidence interval) of overweight for children sleeping ≤ 10 h and ≥ 13 h were 1.48 (1.26-1.74) and 1.13 (0.96-1.34), while adjusted risk ratios (95% confidence interval) of obesity were 1.77 (1.30-2.40) and 1.19 (0.85-1.66). Restricted cubic splines regression supported U-shaped curvilinear associations between sleep duration and overweight/obesity in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Both short and overlong sleep duration are associated with a higher risk of overweight/obesity in preschool-aged children. Optimizing sleep duration may be an important modifiable intervention for overweight and obesity. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Safety of intravenous thrombolysis in stroke mimics: prospective 5-year study and comprehensive meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Zand, Ramin; Katsanos, Aristeidis H; Goyal, Nitin; Uchino, Ken; Chang, Jason; Dardiotis, Efthimios; Putaala, Jukka; Alexandrov, Anne W; Malkoff, Marc D; Alexandrov, Andrei V

2015-05-01

Shortening door-to-needle time may lead to inadvertent intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) administration in stroke mimics (SMs). We sought to determine the safety of IVT in SMs using prospective, single-center data and by conducting a comprehensive meta-analysis of reported case-series. We prospectively analyzed consecutive IVT-treated patients during a 5-year period at a tertiary care stroke center. A systematic review and meta-analysis of case-series reporting safety of IVT in SMs and confirmed acute ischemic stroke were conducted. Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage was defined as imaging evidence of ICH with an National Institutes of Health Stroke scale increase of ≥4 points. Favorable functional outcome at hospital discharge was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 1. Of 516 consecutive IVT patients at our tertiary care center (50% men; mean age, 60±14 years; median National Institutes of Health Stroke scale, 11; range, 3-22), SMs comprised 75 cases. Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in 1 patient, whereas we documented no cases of orolingual edema or major extracranial hemorrhagic complications. In meta-analysis of 9 studies (8942 IVT-treated patients), the pooled rates of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage and orolingual edema among 392 patients with SM treated with IVT were 0.5% (95% confidence interval, 0%-2%) and 0.3% (95% confidence interval, 0%-2%), respectively. Patients with SM were found to have a significantly lower risk for symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage compared with patients with acute ischemic stroke (risk ratio=0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.77; P=0.010), with no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias. Favorable functional outcome was almost 3-fold higher in patients with SM in comparison with patients with acute ischemic stroke (risk ratio=2.78; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-3.73; P<0.00001). Our prospective, single-center experience coupled with the findings of the comprehensive meta-analysis underscores the safety of IVT in SM. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

A randomized trial of multivitamin supplements and HIV disease progression and mortality.

PubMed

Fawzi, Wafaie W; Msamanga, Gernard I; Spiegelman, Donna; Wei, Ruilan; Kapiga, Saidi; Villamor, Eduardo; Mwakagile, Davis; Mugusi, Ferdinand; Hertzmark, Ellen; Essex, Max; Hunter, David J

2004-07-01

Results from observational studies suggest that micronutrient status is a determinant of the progression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease. We enrolled 1078 pregnant women infected with HIV in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, to examine the effects of daily supplements of vitamin A (preformed vitamin A and beta carotene), multivitamins (vitamins B, C, and E), or both on progression of HIV disease, using survival models. The median follow-up with respect to survival was 71 months (interquartile range, 46 to 80). Of 271 women who received multivitamins, 67 had progression to World Health Organization (WHO) stage 4 disease or died--the primary outcome--as compared with 83 of 267 women who received placebo (24.7 percent vs. 31.1 percent; relative risk, 0.71; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51 to 0.98; P=0.04). This regimen was also associated with reductions in the relative risk of death related to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (0.73; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51 to 1.04; P=0.09), progression to WHO stage 4 (0.50; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.28 to 0.90; P=0.02), or progression to stage 3 or higher (0.72; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.90; P=0.003). Multivitamins also resulted in significantly higher CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts and significantly lower viral loads. The effects of receiving vitamin A alone were smaller and for the most part not significantly different from those produced by placebo. Adding vitamin A to the multivitamin regimen reduced the benefit with regard to some of the end points examined. Multivitamin supplements delay the progression of HIV disease and provide an effective, low-cost means of delaying the initiation of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected women. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

Visualization and curve-parameter estimation strategies for efficient exploration of phenotype microarray kinetics.

PubMed

Vaas, Lea A I; Sikorski, Johannes; Michael, Victoria; Göker, Markus; Klenk, Hans-Peter

2012-01-01

The Phenotype MicroArray (OmniLog® PM) system is able to simultaneously capture a large number of phenotypes by recording an organism's respiration over time on distinct substrates. This technique targets the object of natural selection itself, the phenotype, whereas previously addressed '-omics' techniques merely study components that finally contribute to it. The recording of respiration over time, however, adds a longitudinal dimension to the data. To optimally exploit this information, it must be extracted from the shapes of the recorded curves and displayed in analogy to conventional growth curves. The free software environment R was explored for both visualizing and fitting of PM respiration curves. Approaches using either a model fit (and commonly applied growth models) or a smoothing spline were evaluated. Their reliability in inferring curve parameters and confidence intervals was compared to the native OmniLog® PM analysis software. We consider the post-processing of the estimated parameters, the optimal classification of curve shapes and the detection of significant differences between them, as well as practically relevant questions such as detecting the impact of cultivation times and the minimum required number of experimental repeats. We provide a comprehensive framework for data visualization and parameter estimation according to user choices. A flexible graphical representation strategy for displaying the results is proposed, including 95% confidence intervals for the estimated parameters. The spline approach is less prone to irregular curve shapes than fitting any of the considered models or using the native PM software for calculating both point estimates and confidence intervals. These can serve as a starting point for the automated post-processing of PM data, providing much more information than the strict dichotomization into positive and negative reactions. Our results form the basis for a freely available R package for the analysis of PM data.

Valsartan, captopril, or both in myocardial infarction complicated by heart failure, left ventricular dysfunction, or both.

PubMed

Pfeffer, Marc A; McMurray, John J V; Velazquez, Eric J; Rouleau, Jean-Lucien; Køber, Lars; Maggioni, Aldo P; Solomon, Scott D; Swedberg, Karl; Van de Werf, Frans; White, Harvey; Leimberger, Jeffrey D; Henis, Marc; Edwards, Susan; Zelenkofske, Steven; Sellers, Mary Ann; Califf, Robert M

2003-11-13

Angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors such as captopril reduce mortality and cardiovascular morbidity among patients with myocardial infarction complicated by left ventricular systolic dysfunction, heart failure, or both. In a double-blind trial, we compared the effect of the angiotensin-receptor blocker valsartan, the ACE inhibitor captopril, and the combination of the two on mortality in this population of patients. Patients receiving conventional therapy were randomly assigned, 0.5 to 10 days after acute myocardial infarction, to additional therapy with valsartan (4909 patients), valsartan plus captopril (4885 patients), or captopril (4909 patients). The primary end point was death from any cause. During a median follow-up of 24.7 months, 979 patients in the valsartan group died, as did 941 patients in the valsartan-and-captopril group and 958 patients in the captopril group (hazard ratio in the valsartan group as compared with the captopril group, 1.00; 97.5 percent confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.11; P=0.98; hazard ratio in the valsartan-and-captopril group as compared with the captopril group, 0.98; 97.5 percent confidence interval, 0.89 to 1.09; P=0.73). The upper limit of the one-sided 97.5 percent confidence interval for the comparison of the valsartan group with the captopril group was within the prespecified margin for noninferiority with regard to mortality (P=0.004) and with regard to the composite end point of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events (P<0.001). The valsartan-and-captopril group had the most drug-related adverse events. With monotherapy, hypotension and renal dysfunction were more common in the valsartan group, and cough, rash, and taste disturbance were more common in the captopril group. Valsartan is as effective as captopril in patients who are at high risk for cardiovascular events after myocardial infarction. Combining valsartan with captopril increased the rate of adverse events without improving survival. Copyright 2003 Massachusetts Medical Society

Primary Care Strategies for Promoting Parent-Child Interactions and School Readiness in At-Risk Families

PubMed Central

Mendelsohn, Alan L.; Huberman, Harris S.; Berkule, Samantha B.; Brockmeyer, Carolyn A.; Morrow, Lesley M.; Dreyer, Benard P.

2011-01-01

Objective To determine the effects of pediatric primary care interventions on parent-child interactions in families with low socioeconomic status. Design In this randomized controlled trial, participants were randomized to 1 of 2 interventions (Video Interaction Project [VIP] or Building Blocks [BB]) or the control group. Setting Urban public hospital pediatric primary care clinic. Participants Mother-newborn dyads enrolled post partum from November 1, 2005, through October 31, 2008. Interventions In the VIP group, mothers and newborns participated in 1-on-1 sessions with a child development specialist who facilitated interactions in play and shared reading by reviewing videos made of the parent and child on primary care visit days; learning materials and parenting pamphlets were also provided. In the BB group, parenting materials, including age-specific newsletters suggesting interactive activities, learning materials, and parent-completed developmental questionnaires, were mailed to the mothers. Main Outcome Measures Parent-child interactions were assessed at 6 months with the StimQ-Infant and a 24-hour shared reading recall diary. Results A total of 410 families were assessed. The VIP group had a higher increased StimQ score (mean difference, 3.6 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 5.6 points; Cohen d, 0.51; 0.22 to 0.81) and more reading activities compared to the control group. The BB group also had an increased overall StimQ score compared with the control group (Cohen d, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.03 to 0.60). The greatest effects for the VIP group were found for mothers with a ninth-grade or higher reading level (Cohen d, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.33 to 1.03). Conclusions The VIP and BB groups each led to increased parent-child interactions. Pediatric primary care represents a significant opportunity for enhancing developmental trajectories in at-risk children. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00212576 PMID:21199978

Visualization and Curve-Parameter Estimation Strategies for Efficient Exploration of Phenotype Microarray Kinetics

PubMed Central

Vaas, Lea A. I.; Sikorski, Johannes; Michael, Victoria; Göker, Markus; Klenk, Hans-Peter

2012-01-01

Background The Phenotype MicroArray (OmniLog® PM) system is able to simultaneously capture a large number of phenotypes by recording an organism's respiration over time on distinct substrates. This technique targets the object of natural selection itself, the phenotype, whereas previously addressed ‘-omics’ techniques merely study components that finally contribute to it. The recording of respiration over time, however, adds a longitudinal dimension to the data. To optimally exploit this information, it must be extracted from the shapes of the recorded curves and displayed in analogy to conventional growth curves. Methodology The free software environment R was explored for both visualizing and fitting of PM respiration curves. Approaches using either a model fit (and commonly applied growth models) or a smoothing spline were evaluated. Their reliability in inferring curve parameters and confidence intervals was compared to the native OmniLog® PM analysis software. We consider the post-processing of the estimated parameters, the optimal classification of curve shapes and the detection of significant differences between them, as well as practically relevant questions such as detecting the impact of cultivation times and the minimum required number of experimental repeats. Conclusions We provide a comprehensive framework for data visualization and parameter estimation according to user choices. A flexible graphical representation strategy for displaying the results is proposed, including 95% confidence intervals for the estimated parameters. The spline approach is less prone to irregular curve shapes than fitting any of the considered models or using the native PM software for calculating both point estimates and confidence intervals. These can serve as a starting point for the automated post-processing of PM data, providing much more information than the strict dichotomization into positive and negative reactions. Our results form the basis for a freely available R package for the analysis of PM data. PMID:22536335

Association Between the Opening of Retail Clinics and Low-Acuity Emergency Department Visits.

PubMed

Martsolf, Grant; Fingar, Kathryn R; Coffey, Rosanna; Kandrack, Ryan; Charland, Tom; Eibner, Christine; Elixhauser, Anne; Steiner, Claudia; Mehrotra, Ateev

2017-04-01

We assess whether the opening of retail clinics near emergency departments (ED) is associated with decreased ED utilization for low-acuity conditions. We used data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Emergency Department Databases for 2,053 EDs in 23 states from 2007 to 2012. We used Poisson regression models to examine the association between retail clinic penetration and the rate of ED visits for 11 low-acuity conditions. Retail clinic "penetration" was measured as the percentage of the ED catchment area that overlapped with the 10-minute drive radius of a retail clinic. Rate ratios were calculated for a 10-percentage-point increase in retail clinic penetration per quarter. During the course of a year, this represents the effect of an increase in retail clinic penetration rate from 0% to 40%, which was approximately the average penetration rate observed in 2012. Among all patients, retail clinic penetration was not associated with a reduced rate of low-acuity ED visits (rate ratio=0.999; 95% confidence interval=0.997 to 1.000). Among patients with private insurance, there was a slight decrease in low-acuity ED visits (rate ratio=0.997; 95% confidence interval=0.994 to 0.999). For the average ED in a given quarter, this would equal a 0.3% reduction (95% confidence interval 0.1% to 0.6%) in low-acuity ED visits among the privately insured if retail clinic penetration rate increased by 10 percentage points per quarter. With increased patient demand resulting from the expansion of health insurance coverage, retail clinics may emerge as an important care location, but to date, they have not been associated with a meaningful reduction in low-acuity ED visits. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Trial of Electrical Direct-Current Therapy versus Escitalopram for Depression.

PubMed

Brunoni, Andre R; Moffa, Adriano H; Sampaio-Junior, Bernardo; Borrione, Lucas; Moreno, Marina L; Fernandes, Raquel A; Veronezi, Beatriz P; Nogueira, Barbara S; Aparicio, Luana V M; Razza, Lais B; Chamorro, Renan; Tort, Luara C; Fraguas, Renerio; Lotufo, Paulo A; Gattaz, Wagner F; Fregni, Felipe; Benseñor, Isabela M

2017-06-29

We compared transcranial direct-current stimulation (tDCS) with a selective serotonin-reuptake inhibitor for the treatment of depression. In a single-center, double-blind, noninferiority trial involving adults with unipolar depression, we randomly assigned patients to receive tDCS plus oral placebo, sham tDCS plus escitalopram, or sham tDCS plus oral placebo. The tDCS was administered in 30-minute, 2-mA prefrontal stimulation sessions for 15 consecutive weekdays, followed by 7 weekly treatments. Escitalopram was given at a dose of 10 mg per day for 3 weeks and 20 mg per day thereafter. The primary outcome measure was the change in the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS-17) score (range, 0 to 52, with higher scores indicating more depression). Noninferiority of tDCS versus escitalopram was defined by a lower boundary of the confidence interval for the difference in the decreased score that was at least 50% of the difference in the scores with placebo versus escitalopram. A total of 245 patients underwent randomization, with 91 being assigned to escitalopram, 94 to tDCS, and 60 to placebo. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the mean (±SD) decrease in the score from baseline was 11.3±6.5 points in the escitalopram group, 9.0±7.1 points in the tDCS group, and 5.8±7.9 points in the placebo group. The lower boundary of the confidence interval for the difference in the decrease for tDCS versus escitalopram (difference, -2.3 points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.3 to -0.4; P=0.69) was lower than the noninferiority margin of -2.75 (50% of placebo minus escitalopram), so noninferiority could not be claimed. Escitalopram and tDCS were both superior to placebo (difference vs. placebo, 5.5 points [95% CI, 3.1 to 7.8; P<0.001] and 3.2 points [95% CI, 0.7 to 5.5; P=0.01], respectively). Patients receiving tDCS had higher rates of skin redness, tinnitus, and nervousness than did those in the other two groups, and new-onset mania developed in 2 patients in the tDCS group. Patients receiving escitalopram had more frequent sleepiness and obstipation than did those in the other two groups. In a single-center trial, tDCS for the treatment of depression did not show noninferiority to escitalopram over a 10-week period and was associated with more adverse events. (Funded by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo and others; ELECT-TDCS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01894815 .).

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relevance of genetically determined host factors to the prognosis of meningococcal disease.

PubMed

Domingo, P; Muñiz-Diaz, E; Baraldès, M A; Arilla, M; Barquet, N; Pericas, R; Juárez, C; Madoz, P; Vázquez, G

2004-08-01

To assess the relevance of genetically determined host factors for the prognosis of meningococcal disease, Fc gamma receptor IIA (FcgammaRIIA), the tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) gene promoter region, and plasminogen-activator-inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) gene polymorphisms were studied in 145 patients with meningococcal disease and in 290 healthy controls matched by sex. Distribution of FcgammaRIIA, TNF-alpha, and PAI-1 alleles was not significantly different between patients and controls. Patients with the FcgammaRIIA-R/R 131 allotype scored > or =1 point in the Barcelona prognostic system more frequently than patients with other allotypes (odds ratio, 18.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.1-49.0, P<0.0001), and they had a higher risk of sequelae (odds ratio, 3.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-11.7; P=0.03). Fc gamma receptor IIA polymorphism was associated with markers of disease severity, but TNF-alpha and PAI-1 polymorphisms were not.

Applying Emax model and bivariate thin plate splines to assess drug interactions

PubMed Central

Kong, Maiying; Lee, J. Jack

2014-01-01

We review the semiparametric approach previously proposed by Kong and Lee and extend it to a case in which the dose-effect curves follow the Emax model instead of the median effect equation. When the maximum effects for the investigated drugs are different, we provide a procedure to obtain the additive effect based on the Loewe additivity model. Then, we apply a bivariate thin plate spline approach to estimate the effect beyond additivity along with its 95% point-wise confidence interval as well as its 95% simultaneous confidence interval for any combination dose. Thus, synergy, additivity, and antagonism can be identified. The advantages of the method are that it provides an overall assessment of the combination effect on the entire two-dimensional dose space spanned by the experimental doses, and it enables us to identify complex patterns of drug interaction in combination studies. In addition, this approach is robust to outliers. To illustrate this procedure, we analyzed data from two case studies. PMID:20036878

Applying Emax model and bivariate thin plate splines to assess drug interactions.

PubMed

Kong, Maiying; Lee, J Jack

2010-01-01

We review the semiparametric approach previously proposed by Kong and Lee and extend it to a case in which the dose-effect curves follow the Emax model instead of the median effect equation. When the maximum effects for the investigated drugs are different, we provide a procedure to obtain the additive effect based on the Loewe additivity model. Then, we apply a bivariate thin plate spline approach to estimate the effect beyond additivity along with its 95 per cent point-wise confidence interval as well as its 95 per cent simultaneous confidence interval for any combination dose. Thus, synergy, additivity, and antagonism can be identified. The advantages of the method are that it provides an overall assessment of the combination effect on the entire two-dimensional dose space spanned by the experimental doses, and it enables us to identify complex patterns of drug interaction in combination studies. In addition, this approach is robust to outliers. To illustrate this procedure, we analyzed data from two case studies.

Age and fecundability in a North American preconception cohort study.

PubMed

Wesselink, Amelia K; Rothman, Kenneth J; Hatch, Elizabeth E; Mikkelsen, Ellen M; Sørensen, Henrik T; Wise, Lauren A

2017-12-01

There is a well-documented decline in fertility treatment success with increasing female age; however, there are few preconception cohort studies that have examined female age and natural fertility. In addition, data on male age and fertility are inconsistent. Given the increasing number of couples who are attempting conception at older ages, a more detailed characterization of age-related fecundability in the general population is of great clinical utility. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between female and male age with fecundability. We conducted a web-based preconception cohort study of pregnancy planners from the United States and Canada. Participants were enrolled between June 2013 and July 2017. Eligible participants were 21-45 years old (female) or ≥21 years old (male) and had not been using fertility treatments. Couples were followed until pregnancy or for up to 12 menstrual cycles. We analyzed data from 2962 couples who had been trying to conceive for ≤3 cycles at study entry and reported no history of infertility. We used life-table methods to estimate the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 and 12 cycles by female and male age. We used proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios, the per-cycle probability of conception for each age category relative to the referent (21-24 years old), and 95% confidence intervals. Among female patients, the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 cycles of attempt time ranged from 62.0% (age 28-30 years) to 27.6% (age 40-45 years); the cumulative pregnancy proportion at 12 cycles of attempt time ranged from 79.3% (age 25-27 years old) to 55.5% (age 40-45 years old). Similar patterns were observed among male patients, although differences between age groups were smaller. After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed a nearly monotonic decline in fecundability with increasing female age, with the exception of 28-33 years, at which point fecundability was relatively stable. Fecundability ratios were 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.11) for ages 25-27, 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.08) for ages 28-30, 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.08) for ages 31-33, 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.05) for ages 34-36, 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.81) for ages 37-39, and 0.40 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-0.73) for ages 40-45, compared with the reference group (age, 21-24 years). The association was stronger among nulligravid women. Male age was not associated appreciably with fecundability after adjustment for female age, although the number of men >45 years old was small (n=37). In this preconception cohort study of North American pregnancy planners, increasing female age was associated with an approximately linear decline in fecundability. Although we found little association between male age and fecundability, the small number of men in our study >45 years old limited our ability to draw conclusions on fecundability in older men. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Analyzing Thorough QT Study 1 & 2 in the Telemetric and Holter ECG Warehouse (THEW) using Hannover ECG System HES : A validation study.

PubMed

Khawaja, A; Petrovic, R; Safer, A; Baas, T; Dössel, O; Fischer, R

2010-01-01

Following the ICH E14 clinical evaluation guideline [1], the measurement of QT/QTc interval prolongation has become the standard surrogate biomarker for cardiac drug safety assessment and the faith of a drug development. In Thorough QT (TQT) study, a so-called positive control is employed to assess the ability of this study to detect the endpoint of interest, i.e. the QT prolongation by about five milliseconds. In other words the lower bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval (CI) must be above 0 [ms]. Fully automated detection of ECG fiducial points and measurement of the corresponding intervals including QT intervals and RR intervals vary between different computerized algorithms. In this work we demonstrate the ability and reliability of Hannover ECG System (HES(®)) to assess drug effects by detecting QT/QTc prolongation effects that meet the threshold of regulatory concern as mentioned by using THEW database studies namely TQT studies one and two.

Effect of acute kidney injury on weaning from mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Vieira, José M; Castro, Isac; Curvello-Neto, Américo; Demarzo, Sérgio; Caruso, Pedro; Pastore, Laerte; Imanishe, Marina H; Abdulkader, Regina C R M; Deheinzelin, Daniel

2007-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) worsens outcome in various scenarios. We sought to investigate whether the occurrence of AKI has any effect on weaning from mechanical ventilation. Observational, retrospective study in a 23-bed medical/surgical intensive care unit (ICU) in a cancer hospital from January to December 2003. The inclusion criterion was invasive mechanical ventilation for > or =48 hrs. AKI was defined as at least one measurement of serum creatinine of > or =1.5 mg/dL during the ICU stay. Patients were then separated into AKI and non-AKI patients (control group). The criterion for weaning was the combination of positive end-expiratory pressure of < or =8 cm H2O, pressure support of < or =10 cm H2O, and Fio2 of < or =0.4, with spontaneous breathing. The primary end point was duration of weaning and the secondary end points were rate of weaning failure, total length of mechanical ventilation, length of stay in the ICU, and ICU mortality. A total of 140 patients were studied: 93 with AKI and 47 controls. The groups were similar in regard to age, sex, and type of tumor. Diagnosis of acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome as cause of respiratory failure and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II at admission did not differ between groups. During ICU stay, AKI patients had markers of more severe disease: increased occurrence of severe sepsis or septic shock, higher number of antibiotics, and longer use of vasoactive drugs. The median (interquartile range) duration of mechanical ventilation (10 [6-17] vs. 7 [2-12] days, p = .017) and duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation (41 [16-97] vs. 21 [7-33.5] hrs, p = .018) were longer in AKI patients compared with control patients. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that a > or =85% increase in baseline serum creatinine (hazard rate, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-4.08), oliguria (hazard rate, 2.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-5.08), and the number of antibiotics (hazard rate, 2.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.51-4.63) predicted longer duration of weaning. The length of ICU stay and ICU mortality rate were significantly greater in the AKI patients. After adjusting for Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, oliguria (odds ratio, 30.8; 95% confidence interval, 7.7-123.0) remained as a strong risk factor for mortality. This study shows that renal dysfunction has serious consequences in the duration of mechanical ventilation, weaning from mechanical ventilation, and mortality in critically ill cancer patients.

Monitoring Fine-Grained Sediment in the Colorado River Ecosystem, Arizona - Control Network and Conventional Survey Techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hazel, Joseph E.; Kaplinski, Matt; Parnell, Roderic A.; Kohl, Keith; Schmidt, John C.

2008-01-01

In 2002, fine-grained sediment (sand, silt, and clay) monitoring in the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam was initiated to survey channel topography at scales previously unobtainable in this canyon setting. This report presents the methods used to establish the high-resolution global positioning system (GPS) control network required for this effort as well as the conventional surveying techniques used in the study. Using simultaneous, dual-frequency GPS vector-based methods, the network points were determined to have positioning accuracies of less than 0.03 meters (m) and ellipsoidal height accuracies of between 0.01 and 0.10 m at a 95-percent degree of confidence. We also assessed network point quality with repeated, electronic (optical) total-station observations at 39 points for a total of 362 measurements; the mean range was 0.022 m in horizontal and 0.13 in vertical at a 95-percent confidence interval. These results indicate that the control network is of sufficient spatial and vertical accuracy for collection of airborne and subaerial remote-sensing technologies and integration of these data in a geographic information system on a repeatable basis without anomalies. The monitoring methods were employed in up to 11 discrete reaches over various time intervals. The reaches varied from 1.3 to 6.4 kilometers in length. Field results from surveys in 2000, 2002, and 2004 are described, during which conventional surveying was used to collect more than 3000 points per day. Ground points were used as checkpoints and to supplement areas just below or above the water surface, where remote-sensing data are not collected or are subject to greater error. An accuracy of +or- 0.05 m was identified as the minimum precision of individual ground points. These results are important for assessing digital elevation model (DEM) quality and identifying detection limits of significant change among surfaces generated from remote-sensing technologies.

The assessment of changes in cognitive functioning: age-, education-, and gender-specific reliable change indices for older adults tested on the CERAD-NP battery: results of the German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe).

PubMed

Stein, Janine; Luppa, Melanie; Luck, Tobias; Maier, Wolfgang; Wagner, Michael; Daerr, Moritz; van den Bussche, Hendrik; Zimmermann, Thomas; Köhler, Mirjam; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Weyerer, Siegfried; Kaufeler, Teresa; Pentzek, Michael; Wiese, Birgitt; Wollny, Anja; König, Hans-Helmut; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

2012-01-01

The Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease-Neuropsychological (CERAD-NP) battery represents a commonly used neuropsychological instrument to measure cognitive functioning in the elderly. This study provides normative data for changes in cognitive function that normally occur in cognitively healthy individuals to interpret changes in CERAD-NP test scores over longer time periods. Longitudinal cohort study with three assessments at 1.5-year intervals over a period of 3 years. : Primary care medical record registry sample. As part of the German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia in Primary Care Patients, a sample of 1,450 cognitively healthy general practitioner patients, age 75 years and older, was assessed. Age-, education-, and gender-specific Reliable Change Indices (RCIs) were computed for a 90% confidence interval for selected subtests of the CERAD-NP battery. Across different age, education, and gender subgroups, changes from at least six to nine points in Verbal Fluency, four to eight points in Word List Memory, two to four points in Word List Recall, and one to four points in Word List Recognition indicated significant (i.e. reliable) changes in CERAD-NP test scores at the 90% confidence level. Furthermore, the calculation of RCIs for individual patients is demonstrated. Smaller changes in CERAD-NP test scores can be interpreted with only high uncertainty because of probable measurement error, practice effects, and normal age-related cognitive decline. This study, for the first time, provides age-, education-, and gender-specific CERAD-NP reference values on the basis of RCI methods for the interpretation of cognitive changes in older-age groups.

Does Maltreatment in Childhood Affect Sexual Orientation in Adulthood?

PubMed Central

Roberts, Andrea L.; Glymour, M. Maria; Koenen, Karestan C.

2012-01-01

Epidemiological studies find a positive association between physical and sexual abuse, neglect, and witnessing violence in childhood and same-sex sexuality in adulthood, but studies directly assessing the association between these diverse types of maltreatment and sexuality cannot disentangle the causal direction because the sequencing of maltreatment and emerging sexuality is difficult to ascertain. Nascent same-sex orientation may increase risk of maltreatment; alternatively, maltreatment may shape sexual orientation. Our study used instrumental variable models based on family characteristics that predict maltreatment but are not plausibly influenced by sexual orientation (e.g., having a stepparent) as natural experiments to investigate whether maltreatment might increase the likelihood of same-sex sexuality in a nationally representative sample (n = 34,653). In instrumental variable models, history of sexual abuse predicted increased prevalence of same-sex attraction by 2.0 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4, 2.5), any same-sex partners by 1.4 percentage points (95% CI = 1.0, 1.9), and same-sex identity by 0.7 percentage points (95% CI = 0.4, 0.9). Effects of sexual abuse on men’s sexual orientation were substantially larger than on women’s. Effects of non-sexual maltreatment were significant only for men and women’s sexual identity and women’s same-sex partners. While point estimates suggest much of the association between maltreatment and sexual orientation may be due to the effects of maltreatment on sexual orientation, confidence intervals were wide. Our results suggest that causal relationships driving the association between sexual orientation and childhood abuse may be bidirectional, may differ by type of abuse, and may differ by sex. Better understanding of this potentially complex causal structure is critical to developing targeted strategies to reduce sexual orientation disparities in exposure to abuse. PMID:22976519

Cardiovascular health behavior and health factor changes (1988-2008) and projections to 2020: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

PubMed

Huffman, Mark D; Capewell, Simon; Ning, Hongyan; Shay, Christina M; Ford, Earl S; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2012-05-29

The American Heart Association's 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target a 20% relative improvement in overall cardiovascular health with the use of 4 health behavior (smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass) and 3 health factor (plasma glucose, cholesterol, blood pressure) metrics. We sought to define current trends and forward projections to 2020 in cardiovascular health. We included 35 059 cardiovascular disease-free adults (aged ≥20 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988-1994 and subsequent 2-year cycles during 1999-2008. We calculated population prevalence of poor, intermediate, and ideal health behaviors and factors and also computed a composite, individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score for all 7 metrics (poor=0 points; intermediate=1 point; ideal=2 points; total range, 0-14 points). Prevalence of current and former smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension declined, whereas prevalence of obesity and dysglycemia increased through 2008. Physical activity levels and low diet quality scores changed minimally. Projections to 2020 suggest that obesity and impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus could increase to affect 43% and 77% of US men and 42% and 53% of US women, respectively. Overall, population-level cardiovascular health is projected to improve by 6% overall by 2020 if current trends continue. Individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score projections to 2020 (men=7.4 [95% confidence interval, 5.7-9.1]; women=8.8 [95% confidence interval, 7.6-9.9]) fall well below the level needed to achieve a 20% improvement (men=9.4; women=10.1). The American Heart Association 2020 target of improving cardiovascular health by 20% by 2020 will not be reached if current trends continue.

Cardiovascular Health Behavior and Health Factor Changes (1988 –2008) and Projections to 2020

PubMed Central

Huffman, Mark D.; Capewell, Simon; Ning, Hongyan; Shay, Christina M.; Ford, Earl S.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

2014-01-01

Background The American Heart Association’s 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target a 20% relative improvement in overall cardiovascular health with the use of 4 health behavior (smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass) and 3 health factor (plasma glucose, cholesterol, blood pressure) metrics. We sought to define current trends and forward projections to 2020 in cardiovascular health. Methods and Results We included 35 059 cardiovascular disease–free adults (aged ≥20 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988–1994 and subsequent 2-year cycles during 1999–2008. We calculated population prevalence of poor, intermediate, and ideal health behaviors and factors and also computed a composite, individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score for all 7 metrics (poor=0 points; intermediate=1 point; ideal=2 points; total range, 0–14 points). Prevalence of current and former smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension declined, whereas prevalence of obesity and dysglycemia increased through 2008. Physical activity levels and low diet quality scores changed minimally. Projections to 2020 suggest that obesity and impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus could increase to affect 43% and 77% of US men and 42% and 53% of US women, respectively. Overall, population-level cardiovascular health is projected to improve by 6% overall by 2020 if current trends continue. Individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score projections to 2020 (men=7.4 [95% confidence interval, 5.7–9.1]; women=8.8 [95% confidence interval, 7.6–9.9]) fall well below the level needed to achieve a 20% improvement (men=9.4; women=10.1). Conclusions The American Heart Association 2020 target of improving cardiovascular health by 20% by 2020 will not be reached if current trends continue. PMID:22547667

Azithromycin versus Doxycycline for Urogenital Chlamydia trachomatis Infection.

PubMed

Geisler, William M; Uniyal, Apurva; Lee, Jeannette Y; Lensing, Shelly Y; Johnson, Shacondra; Perry, Raymond C W; Kadrnka, Carmel M; Kerndt, Peter R

2015-12-24

Urogenital Chlamydia trachomatis infection remains prevalent and causes substantial reproductive morbidity. Recent studies have raised concern about the efficacy of azithromycin for the treatment of chlamydia infection. We conducted a randomized trial comparing oral azithromycin with doxycycline for the treatment of urogenital chlamydia infection among adolescents in youth correctional facilities, to evaluate the noninferiority of azithromycin (1 g in one dose) to doxycycline (100 mg twice daily for 7 days). The treatment was directly observed. The primary end point was treatment failure at 28 days after treatment initiation, with treatment failure determined on the basis of nucleic acid amplification testing, sexual history, and outer membrane protein A (OmpA) genotyping of C. trachomatis strains. Among the 567 participants enrolled, 284 were randomly assigned to receive azithromycin, and 283 were randomly assigned to receive doxycycline. A total of 155 participants in each treatment group (65% male) made up the per-protocol population. There were no treatment failures in the doxycycline group. In the azithromycin group, treatment failure occurred in 5 participants (3.2%; 95% confidence interval, 0.4 to 7.4%). The observed difference in failure rates between the treatment groups was 3.2 percentage points, with an upper boundary of the 90% confidence interval of 5.9 percentage points, which exceeded the prespecified absolute 5-percentage-point cutoff for establishing the noninferiority of azithromycin. In the context of a closed population receiving directly observed treatment for urogenital chlamydia infection, the efficacy of azithromycin was 97%, and the efficacy of doxycycline was 100%. The noninferiority of azithromycin was not established in this setting. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00980148.).

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Identifying family members who may struggle in the role of surrogate decision maker.

PubMed

Majesko, Alyssa; Hong, Seo Yeon; Weissfeld, Lisa; White, Douglas B

2012-08-01

Although acting as a surrogate decision maker can be highly distressing for some family members of intensive care unit patients, little is known about whether there are modifiable risk factors for the occurrence of such difficulties. To identify: 1) factors associated with lower levels of confidence among family members to function as surrogates and 2) whether the quality of clinician-family communication is associated with the timing of decisions to forego life support. We conducted a prospective study of 230 surrogate decision makers for incapacitated, mechanically ventilated patients at high risk of death in four intensive care units at University of California San Francisco Medical Center from 2006 to 2007. Surrogates completed a questionnaire addressing their perceived ability to act as a surrogate and the quality of their communication with physicians. We used clustered multivariate logistic regression to identify predictors of low levels of perceived ability to act as a surrogate and a Cox proportional hazard model to determine whether quality of communication was associated with the timing of decisions to withdraw life support. There was substantial variability in family members' confidence to act as surrogate decision makers, with 27% rating their perceived ability as 7 or lower on a 10-point scale. Independent predictors of lower role confidence were the lack of prior experience as a surrogate (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval [1.04-4.46], p=.04), no prior discussions with the patient about treatment preferences (odds ratio 3.7, 95% confidence interval [1.79-7.76], p<.001), and poor quality of communication with the ICU physician (odds ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval [1.09-1.35] p<.001). Higher quality physician-family communication was associated with a significantly shorter duration of life-sustaining treatment among patients who died (β=0.11, p=.001). Family members without prior experience as a surrogate and those who had not engaged in advanced discussions with the patient about treatment preferences were at higher risk to report less confidence in carrying out the surrogate role. Better-quality clinician-family communication was associated with both more confidence among family members to act as surrogates and a shorter duration of use of life support among patients who died.

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

The Log Handwriting Program improved children's writing legibility: a pretest-posttest study.

PubMed

Mackay, Nadine; McCluskey, Annie; Mayes, Rachel

2010-01-01

We determined the feasibility and outcomes of the Log Handwriting Program (Raynal, 1990), an 8-week training program based on task-specific practice of handwriting. We used a pretest-posttest design involving 16 first- and second-grade Australian students. Handwriting training sessions occurred in schools for 45 min per week over 8 weeks, in groups of 2 or 3. Weekly homework was provided. The primary outcome measure was the Minnesota Handwriting Assessment (range = 0 to 34; Reisman, 1999). Legibility, form, alignment, size, spacing, and speed were measured. All six assessment subscales showed statistically significant differences. Legibility improved by a mean of 4.1 points (95% confidence interval = 2.5 to 5.7); form, 5.3 points; alignment, 7.8 points; size, 7.9 points; and space, 5.3 points. Speed decreased by 3.9 points. Preliminary evidence indicates that an 8-week Log Handwriting Program is feasible and improved handwriting in primary school children.

Efficacy and Safety of Ticagrelor in Relation to Aspirin Use Within the Week Before Randomization in the SOCRATES Trial.

PubMed

Wong, K S Lawrence; Amarenco, Pierre; Albers, Gregory W; Denison, Hans; Easton, J Donald; Evans, Scott R; Held, Peter; Himmelmann, Anders; Kasner, Scott E; Knutsson, Mikael; Ladenvall, Per; Minematsu, Kazuo; Molina, Carlos A; Wang, Yongjun; Johnston, S Claiborne

2018-07-01

SOCRATES (Acute Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack Treated With Aspirin or Ticagrelor and Patient Outcomes), comparing ticagrelor with aspirin in patients with acute cerebral ischemia, found a nonsignificant 11% relative risk reduction for stroke, myocardial infarction, or death ( P =0.07). Aspirin intake before randomization could enhance the effect of ticagrelor by conferring dual antiplatelet effect during a high-risk period for subsequent stroke. Therefore, we explored the efficacy and safety of ticagrelor versus aspirin in the patients who received any aspirin the week before randomization. A prespecified subgroup analysis in SOCRATES (n=13 199), randomizing patients with acute ischemic stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of ≤5) or transient ischemic attack (ABCD 2 score of ≥4) to 90-day treatment with ticagrelor or aspirin. Patients in the prior-aspirin group had received any aspirin within the week before randomization. Primary end point was time to stroke, myocardial infarction, or death. Safety end point was PLATO (Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) major bleeding. The 4232 patients in the prior-aspirin group were older, had more vascular risk factors, and vascular disease than the other patients. In the prior-aspirin group, the primary end point occurred in 138/2130 (6.5%) of patients on ticagrelor and in 177/2102 (8.3%) on aspirin (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.95; P =0.02); in patients with no prior-aspirin usage an event occurred in 304/4459 (6.9%) and 320/4508 (7.1%) on ticagrelor and aspirin, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.12; P =0.59). The treatment-by-prior-aspirin interaction was not statistically significant ( P =0.10). In the prior-aspirin group, major bleeding occurred in 0.7% and 0.4% of patients on ticagrelor and aspirin, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-3.65; P =0.28). In this secondary analysis from SOCRATES, fewer primary end points occurred on ticagrelor treatment than on aspirin in patients receiving aspirin before randomization, but there was no significant treatment-by-prior-aspirin interaction. A new study will investigate the benefit-risk of combining ticagrelor and aspirin in patients with acute cerebral ischemia (URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT03354429). URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01994720. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Cosmological model-independent test of ΛCDM with two-point diagnostic by the observational Hubble parameter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Shu-Lei; Duan, Xiao-Wei; Meng, Xiao-Lei; Zhang, Tong-Jie

2018-04-01

Aiming at exploring the nature of dark energy (DE), we use forty-three observational Hubble parameter data (OHD) in the redshift range 0 < z ≤slant 2.36 to make a cosmological model-independent test of the ΛCDM model with two-point Omh^2(z2;z1) diagnostic. In ΛCDM model, with equation of state (EoS) w=-1, two-point diagnostic relation Omh^2 ≡ Ωmh^2 is tenable, where Ωm is the present matter density parameter, and h is the Hubble parameter divided by 100 {km s^{-1 Mpc^{-1}}}. We utilize two methods: the weighted mean and median statistics to bin the OHD to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the measurements. The binning methods turn out to be promising and considered to be robust. By applying the two-point diagnostic to the binned data, we find that although the best-fit values of Omh^2 fluctuate as the continuous redshift intervals change, on average, they are continuous with being constant within 1 σ confidence interval. Therefore, we conclude that the ΛCDM model cannot be ruled out.

Infliximab Reduces Endoscopic, but Not Clinical, Recurrence of Crohn's Disease After Ileocolonic Resection.

PubMed

Regueiro, Miguel; Feagan, Brian G; Zou, Bin; Johanns, Jewel; Blank, Marion A; Chevrier, Marc; Plevy, Scott; Popp, John; Cornillie, Freddy J; Lukas, Milan; Danese, Silvio; Gionchetti, Paolo; Hanauer, Stephen B; Reinisch, Walter; Sandborn, William J; Sorrentino, Dario; Rutgeerts, Paul

2016-06-01

Most patients with Crohn's disease (CD) eventually require an intestinal resection. However, CD frequently recurs after resection. We performed a randomized trial to compare the ability of infliximab vs placebo to prevent CD recurrence. We evaluated the efficacy of infliximab in preventing postoperative recurrence of CD in 297 patients at 104 sites worldwide from November 2010 through May 2012. All study patients had undergone ileocolonic resection within 45 days before randomization. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to groups given infliximab (5 mg/kg) or placebo every 8 weeks for 200 weeks. The primary end point was clinical recurrence, defined as a composite outcome consisting of a CD Activity Index score >200 and a ≥70-point increase from baseline, and endoscopic recurrence (Rutgeerts score ≥i2, determined by a central reader) or development of a new or re-draining fistula or abscess, before or at week 76. Endoscopic recurrence was a major secondary end point. A smaller proportion of patients in the infliximab group had a clinical recurrence before or at week 76 compared with the placebo group, but this difference was not statistically significant (12.9% vs 20.0%; absolute risk reduction [ARR] with infliximab, 7.1%; 95% confidence interval: -1.3% to 15.5%; P = .097). A significantly smaller proportion of patients in the infliximab group had endoscopic recurrence compared with the placebo group (30.6% vs 60.0%; ARR with infliximab, 29.4%; 95% confidence interval: 18.6% to 40.2%; P < .001). Additionally, a significantly smaller proportion of patients in the infliximab group had endoscopic recurrence based only on Rutgeerts scores ≥i2 (22.4% vs 51.3%; ARR with infliximab, 28.9%; 95% confidence interval: 18.4% to 39.4%; P < .001). Patients previously treated with anti-tumor necrosis factor agents or those with more than 1 resection were at greater risk for clinical recurrence. The safety profile of infliximab was similar to that from previous reports. Infliximab is not superior to placebo in preventing clinical recurrence after CD-related resection. However, infliximab does reduce endoscopic recurrence. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01190839. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Subjective insomnia is associated with low sleep efficiency and fatigue in middle-aged women.

PubMed

Hirose, A; Terauchi, M; Akiyoshi, M; Owa, Y; Kato, K; Kubota, T

2016-08-01

Many middle-aged women are affected by sleep disturbance. We investigated how subjective insomnia is associated with objective sleep parameters and other background characteristics. This cross-sectional study used baseline data obtained from 95 women aged 40-59 years who participated in another study assessing the effects of a dietary supplement. Participants wore an actigraph unit for 3 days to collect information concerning physical activities and objective sleep parameters and were then evaluated for body composition, cardiovascular parameters, and menopausal symptoms including insomnia and fatigue, and lifestyle factors. Stratifying Athens Insomnia Scale scores as low (0-5 points, control group) and high (≥ 6 points, subjective insomnia group), we sought to identify the parameters that are independently associated with subjective insomnia. Women with subjective insomnia (n = 30) had lower sleep efficiency than did the controls. They were also older; had more live births, lower height, higher body mass index, lower ankle brachial index, and more severe menopausal symptoms including fatigue; took more naps; smoked more cigarettes; and more of them were full-time workers. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that low sleep efficiency (adjusted odds ratio, 1.44 per 1% decrease in sleep efficiency; 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.05) and fatigue assessed with Brief Fatigue Inventory (BFI) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.57 per 1-point increase in BFI score; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.13) were independent contributors to subjective insomnia. Low sleep efficiency and feeling of fatigue were found to be independently associated with subjective insomnia in middle-aged women.

Evaluation of Short-Term Changes in Serum Creatinine Level as a Meaningful End Point in Randomized Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Zabetian, Azadeh; Ferket, Bart S.; Zhou, Jing; Testani, Jeffrey M.; Garg, Amit X.; Parikh, Chirag R.

2016-01-01

Observational studies have shown that acute change in kidney function (specifically, AKI) is a strong risk factor for poor outcomes. Thus, the outcome of acute change in serum creatinine level, regardless of underlying biology or etiology, is frequently used in clinical trials as both efficacy and safety end points. We performed a meta-analysis of clinical trials to quantify the relationship between positive or negative short–term effects of interventions on change in serum creatinine level and more meaningful clinical outcomes. After a thorough literature search, we included 14 randomized trials of interventions that altered risk for an acute increase in serum creatinine level and had reported between–group differences in CKD and/or mortality rate ≥3 months after randomization. Seven trials assessed interventions that, compared with placebo, increased risk of acute elevation in serum creatinine level (pooled relative risk, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 1.89), and seven trials assessed interventions that, compared with placebo, reduced risk of acute elevation in serum creatinine level (pooled relative risk, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.44 to 0.74). However, pooled risks for CKD and mortality associated with interventions did not differ from those with placebo in either group. In conclusion, several interventions that affect risk of acute, mild to moderate, often temporary elevation in serum creatinine level in placebo–controlled randomized trials showed no appreciable effect on CKD or mortality months later, raising questions about the value of using small to moderate changes in serum creatinine level as end points in clinical trials. PMID:26712525

The effects of changes in physical fitness on academic performance among New York City youth.

PubMed

Bezold, Carla P; Konty, Kevin J; Day, Sophia E; Berger, Magdalena; Harr, Lindsey; Larkin, Michael; Napier, Melanie D; Nonas, Cathy; Saha, Subir; Harris, Tiffany G; Stark, James H

2014-12-01

To evaluate whether a change in fitness is associated with academic outcomes in New York City (NYC) middle-school students using longitudinal data and to evaluate whether this relationship is modified by student household poverty. This was a longitudinal study of 83,111 New York City middle-school students enrolled between 2006-2007 and 2011-2012. Fitness was measured as a composite percentile based on three fitness tests and categorized based on change from the previous year. The effect of the fitness change level on academic outcomes, measured as a composite percentile based on state standardized mathematics and English Language Arts test scores, was estimated using a multilevel growth model. Models were stratified by sex, and additional models were tested stratified by student household poverty. For both girls and boys, a substantial increase in fitness from the previous year resulted in a greater improvement in academic ranking than was seen in the reference group (girls: .36 greater percentile point improvement, 95% confidence interval: .09-.63; boys: .38 greater percentile point improvement, 95% confidence interval: .09-.66). A substantial decrease in fitness was associated with a decrease in academics in both boys and girls. Effects of fitness on academics were stronger in high-poverty boys and girls than in low-poverty boys and girls. Academic rankings improved for boys and girls who increased their fitness level by >20 percentile points compared to other students. Opportunities for increased physical fitness may be important to support academic performance. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by one order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2014-03-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain non-parametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21 with lower 95% confidence bounds > 13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than one order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by 1 order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2015-01-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic, and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain nonparametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21, with lower 95% confidence bounds >13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than 1 order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Need to Perform Life-Saving Interventions Using Comprehensive Analysis of the Electrocardiogram and Artificial Neural Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

the lower and higher asymptotic 95 % confidence intervals were 0.812 and 0.924, respectively. Based on these results, we consider automated ...commercial success of the cardioverter- defibrillator industry clearly demonstrates that the obstacles at hand can be successfully overcome. 4.1...Does HRC Work in Real-Life Noisy Data? One of the methods reportedly designed to deal with nonstationary RRI data sets is the point correlation

Prevalence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Prisoners.

PubMed

Baranyi, Gergõ; Cassidy, Megan; Fazel, Seena; Priebe, Stefan; Mundt, Adrian P

2018-06-01

People involved with criminal justice frequently are exposed to violence and traumatic experiences. This may lead to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); however, no review, to our knowledge, has synthetized findings in this setting. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate prevalence rates of PTSD in prison populations. Original studies in which prevalence rates of PTSD in unselected samples of incarcerated people were reported were systematically searched between 1980 and June 2017. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis, and sources of heterogeneity for prespecified characteristics were assessed by meta-regression. We identified 56 samples comprising 21,099 imprisoned men and women from 20 countries. Point prevalence of PTSD ranged from 0.1% to 27% for male, and from 12% to 38% for female prisoner populations. The random-effects pooled point prevalence was 6.2% (95% confidence interval: 3.9, 9.0) in male prisoners and 21.1% (95% confidence interval: 16.9, 25.6) in female prisoners. The heterogeneity between the included studies was very high. Higher prevalence was reported in samples of female prisoners, smaller studies (n < 100), and for investigations based in high-income countries. Existing evidence shows high levels of PTSD among imprisoned people, especially women. Psychosocial interventions to prevent violence, especially against children and women, and to mitigate its consequences in marginalized communities must be improved. Trauma-informed approaches for correctional programs and scalable PTSD treatments in prisons require further consideration.

Unilateral pulmonary oedema after minimally invasive mitral valve surgery: a single-centre experience.

PubMed

Renner, Jochen; Lorenzen, Ulf; Borzikowsky, Christoph; Schoeneich, Felix; Cremer, Jochen; Haneya, Assad; Hensler, Johannes; Panholzer, Bernd; Huenges, Katharina; Broch, Ole

2018-04-01

Unilateral pulmonary oedema (UPE) is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication that has been described after minimally invasive mitral valve surgery (MICS). Over the last 8 years, we have witnessed, in our institution, several cases of severe UPE requiring immediate postoperative extracorporeal life support after MICS. Reviewing the available literature, data regarding this complication after MICS are rare. Consequently, we decided to retrospectively analyse patients scheduled for MICS in our institution. After approval by our institutional review board, 256 MICS patients were analysed. As a primary end-point, we defined a newly developed UPE, radiographically evident within the first 24 h postoperatively. Secondary end-points were length of stay in the intensive care unit, length of stay in the hospital and in-hospital mortality. Chest radiographs were analysed by an independent consultant of radiology. Fifty-one (19.9%) patients showed increased right-sided pulmonary vascular congestion in the 1st postoperative chest radiography performed in the intensive care unit. Five (1.95%) patients immediately required extracorporeal life support after admission to the intensive care unit. Cardiopulmonary bypass time was significantly longer in the UPE group [UPE vs non-UPE 213 (49) vs 196 (43) min; P = 0.013]. More patients with UPE showed a preoperative increase of C-reactive protein >0.4265 mg/dl (P = 0.05). Logistic regression analysis identified a preoperative increase in C-reactive protein >0.4265 mg/dl as well as a prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time (odds ratio 1.009, 95% confidence level 1.002-1.016; P = 0.014) independent risk factors, significantly associated with the development of UPE (odds ratio 2.583, 95% confidence interval 1.275-5.233; P = 0.008), a prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time (odds ratio 1.009, 95% confidence interval 1.002-1.016; P = 0.014). The presence of pulmonary hypertension (odds ratio 0.273, 95% confidence interval 0.08-0.84; P = 0.02) seemed to be a protective factor regarding the genesis of UPE. In accordance with the rarely available literature regarding UPE after MICS, our analysis led us to hypothesize the possibility of an inflammatory disposition for UPE. The role of pulmonary hypertension remains unclear in our patient population. NCT02655094.

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Revision total hip arthoplasty: factors associated with re-revision surgery.

PubMed

Khatod, Monti; Cafri, Guy; Inacio, Maria C S; Schepps, Alan L; Paxton, Elizabeth W; Bini, Stefano A

2015-03-04

The survivorship of implants after revision total hip arthroplasty and risk factors associated with re-revision are not well defined. We evaluated the re-revision rate with use of the institutional total joint replacement registry. The purpose of this study was to determine patient, implant, and surgeon factors associated with re-revision total hip arthroplasty. A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The total joint replacement registry was used to identify patients who had undergone revision total hip arthroplasty for aseptic reasons from April 1, 2001, to December 31, 2010. The end point of interest was re-revision total hip arthroplasty. Risk factors evaluated for re-revision total hip arthroplasty included: patient risk factors (age, sex, body mass index, race, and general health status), implant risk factors (fixation type, bearing surface, femoral head size, and component replacement), and surgeon risk factors (volume and experience). A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used. Six hundred and twenty-nine revision total hip arthroplasties with sixty-three (10%) re-revisions were evaluated. The mean cohort age (and standard deviation) was 57.0 ± 12.4 years, the mean body mass index (and standard deviation) was 29.5 ± 6.1 kg/m(2), and most of the patients were women (64.5%) and white (81.9%) and had an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of <3 (52.9%). The five-year implant survival after revision total hip arthroplasty was 86.8% (95% confidence interval, 83.57% to 90.25%). In adjusted models, age, total number of revision surgical procedures performed by the surgeon, fixation, and bearing surface were associated with the risk of re-revision. For every ten-year increase in patient age, the hazard ratio for re-revision decreases by a factor of 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.90). For every five revision surgical procedures performed by a surgeon, the risk of revision decreases by a factor of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 0.99). At the time of revision, a new or retained cemented femoral implant or all-cemented hip implant increases the risk of revision by a factor of 3.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 8.38) relative to a retained or new uncemented hip implant. A ceramic on a highly cross-linked polyethylene bearing articulation decreases the hazard relative to metal on highly cross-linked polyethylene by a factor of 0.32 (95% confidence interval, 0.11 to 0.95). Metal on constrained bearing increases the hazard relative to metal on highly cross-linked polyethylene by a factor of 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 9.48). When evaluating patient, implant, and surgical factors at the time of revision total hip arthroplasty, age, surgeon experience, implant fixation, and bearing surfaces had significant impacts on the risk of re-revision. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

The Chiropractic Hospital-Based Interventions Research Outcomes Study: Consistency of Outcomes Between Doctors of Chiropractic Treating Patients With Acute Lower Back Pain.

PubMed

Quon, Jeffrey A; Bishop, Paul B; Arthur, Brian

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to determine if effectiveness differs between community-based doctors of chiropractic administering standardized evidence-based care that includes high-velocity low-amplitude spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) for acute low back pain (LBP). A secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial and observational pilot study data was performed with nonrandom allocation to 4 DCs. Patients included those with Quebec Task Force categories less than or equal to 2 and acute LBP of 2 to 4 weeks' duration. The intervention provided was clinical practice guidelines-based care including high-velocity low-amplitude SMT. Primary outcomes included changes from baseline in modified Roland Disability Questionnaire (RDQ) at 24 weeks. Comparisons of simple main effects at 24 weeks and of marginal main effects in repeated-measures analyses were performed. Between groups, adjusted point-specific differences in RDQ change were minimally clinically important but not statistically significant at 24 weeks (largest pairwise difference, -3.1; 95% confidence interval, -6.3 to 0.1; overall P = .10). However, in optimal analyses that considered the repeated nature of the measurements for each outcome, significant differences in marginal mean RDQ changes were found between groups (largest pairwise difference, -3.8; 95% confidence interval, -4.9 to 2.6; overall P = .03). Overall, DCs differed modestly in their effectiveness in improving LBP-specific disability. The point estimates mirrored typically reported effect sizes from recent systematic reviews of SMT; however, confidence limits did not exclude clinically negligible effects. Copyright © 2015 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Enzyme replacement therapy for Anderson-Fabry disease.

PubMed

El Dib, Regina; Gomaa, Huda; Carvalho, Raíssa Pierri; Camargo, Samira E; Bazan, Rodrigo; Barretti, Pasqual; Barreto, Fellype C

2016-07-25

Anderson-Fabry disease is an X-linked defect of glycosphingolipid metabolism. Progressive renal insufficiency is a major source of morbidity, additional complications result from cardio- and cerebro-vascular involvement. Survival is reduced among affected males and symptomatic female carriers.This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2010, and previously updated in 2013. To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of enzyme replacement therapy compared to other interventions, placebo or no interventions, for treating Anderson-Fabry disease. We searched the Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group's Inborn Errors of Metabolism Trials Register (date of the most recent search: 08 July 2016). We also searched 'Clinical Trials' on The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase and LILACS (date of the most recent search: 24 September 2015). Randomized controlled trials of agalsidase alfa or beta in participants diagnosed with Anderson-Fabry disease. Two authors selected relevant trials, assessed methodological quality and extracted data. Nine trials comparing either agalsidase alfa or beta in 351 participants fulfilled the selection criteria.Both trials comparing agalsidase alfa to placebo reported on globotriaosylceramide concentration in plasma and tissue; aggregate results were non-significant. One trial reported pain scores measured by the Brief Pain Inventory severity, there was a statistically significant improvement for participants receiving treatment at up to three months, mean difference -2.10 (95% confidence interval -3.79 to -0.41; at up to five months, mean difference -1.90 (95% confidence interval -3.65 to -0.15); and at up to six months, mean difference -2.00 (95% confidence interval -3.66 to -0.34). There was a significant difference in the Brief Pain Inventory pain-related quality of life at over five months and up to six months, mean difference -2.10 (95% confidence interval -3.92 to -0.28) but not at other time points. Death was not an outcome in either of the trials.One of the three trials comparing agalsidase beta to placebo reported on globotriaosylceramide concentration in plasma and tissue and showed significant improvement: kidney, mean difference -1.70 (95% confidence interval -2.09 to -1.31); heart, mean difference -0.90 (95% confidence interval -1.18 to -0.62); and composite results (renal, cardiac, and cerebrovascular complications and death), mean difference -4.80 (95% confidence interval -5.45 to -4.15). There was no significant difference between groups for death; no trials reported on pain.Only two trials compared agalsidase alfa to agalsidase beta. One of them showed no significant difference between the groups regarding adverse events, risk ratio 0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.08 to 1.59), or any serious adverse events; risk ratio 0.30; (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 2.57).Two trials compared different dosing schedules of agalsidase alfa. One of them involved three different doses (0.2 mg/kg every two weeks; 0.1 mg/kg weekly and; 0.2 mg/kg weekly), the other trial evaluated two further doses to the dosage schedules: 0.4 mg/kg every week and every other week. Both trials failed to show significant differences with various dosing schedules on globotriaosylceramide levels. No significant differences were found among the schedules for the primary efficacy outcome of self-assessed health state, or for pain scores.One trial comparing agalsidase alfa to agalsidase beta showed no significant difference for any adverse events such as dyspnoea and hypertension.The methodological quality of the included trials was generally unclear for the random sequence generation and allocation concealment. Trials comparing enzyme replacement therapy to placebo show significant improvement with enzyme replacement therapy in regard to microvascular endothelial deposits of globotriaosylceramide and in pain-related quality of life. There is, however, no evidence identifying if the alfa or beta form is superior or the optimal dose or frequency of enzyme replacement therapy. With regards to safety, adverse events (i.e., rigors, fever) were more significant in the agalsidase beta as compared to placebo. The long-term influence of enzyme replacement therapy on risk of morbidity and mortality related to Anderson-Fabry disease remains to be established. This review highlights the need for continued research into the use of enzyme replacement therapy for Anderson-Fabry disease.

Interpretation of remotely downloaded pocket-size cardiac ultrasound images on a web-enabled smartphone: validation against workstation evaluation.

PubMed

Choi, Brian G; Mukherjee, Monica; Dala, Praveen; Young, Heather A; Tracy, Cynthia M; Katz, Richard J; Lewis, Jannet F

2011-12-01

Pocket-size ultrasound has increased echocardiographic portability, but expert point-of-care interpretation may not be readily available. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that remote interpretation on a smartphone with dedicated medical imaging software can be as accurate as on a workstation. Eighty-nine patients in a remote Honduran village underwent echocardiography by a nonexpert using a pocket-size ultrasound device. Images were sent for verification of point-of-care diagnosis to two expert echocardiographers in the United States reading on a workstation. Studies were then anonymized, randomly ordered, and reinterpreted on a smartphone with a dedicated, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant application. Point-of-care diagnosis was considered accurate if any abnormal finding was matched and categorized at the same level of severity (mild, moderate, or severe) by either expert interpretation. The mean age was 54 ± 23 years, and 57% of patients were women. The most common indications for echocardiography were arrhythmia (33%), cardiomyopathy (28%), and syncope (15%). Using the workstation, point-of-care diagnoses were changed in 38% of cases by expert overread (41% left ventricular function correction, 38% valvulopathy correction, 18% poor image quality). Expert interobserver agreement was excellent at 82%, with a Cohen's κ value of 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.94). Intraobserver agreement comparing interpretations on workstations and smartphones was 90%, with a Cohen's κ value of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.97), signifying excellent intertechnology agreement. Remote expert echocardiographic interpretation can provide backup support to point-of-care diagnosis by nonexperts when read on a dedicated smartphone-based application. Mobile-to-mobile consultation may improve access in previously inaccessible locations to accurate echocardiographic interpretation by experienced cardiologists. Copyright © 2011 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of Highly Sensitive Troponin as a Predictor of Short-Term Outcome in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and Stable Coronary Artery Disease (from the ARTEMIS Study).

PubMed

Lepojärvi, E Samuli; Piira, Olli-Pekka; Kiviniemi, Antti M; Miettinen, Johanna A; Kenttä, Tuomas; Ukkola, Olavi; Tulppo, Mikko P; Huikuri, Heikki V; Junttila, M Juhani

2016-02-15

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that novel biomarkers may predict cardiac events in diabetic patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). Serum levels of highly sensitive troponin T (hs-TnT), B-type natriuretic peptide, highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), galectin-3, and soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) were analyzed in 1,137 patients with CAD and with type 2 diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, or fasting glycaemia (diabetic group) and in 649 patients with normal glucose state. Cardiac death or hospitalization for congestive heart failure was the major end point during the follow-up of 2 years. Forty patients in the diabetic group (3.5%) and 9 patients in the nondiabetic group (1.4%) reached the primary end point. High hs-TnT level (≥14 ng/l) was the strongest predictor of the primary end point with hazard ratio of 24.5 (95% confidence interval 8.7 to 69.0; p <0.001) and remained so when adjusted for clinical variables, ejection fraction, renal, lipid, and glycemic status and other biomarkers (hazard ratio 9.9, 95% confidence interval 3.2 to 30.8; p <0.001). In the multivariate model, hs-CRP, B-type natriuretic peptide, and sST2 also predicted the primary end point in the diabetic group (p <0.01 for all). Only sST2 (p <0.001) and hs-CRP (p = 0.02) predicted the primary end point in nondiabetic group. The inclusion of hs-TnT in the model significantly improved discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement 0.050) and reclassification of the patients (net reclassification index 0.21). In conclusion, hs-TnT is a strong predictor of cardiac death or hospitalization for heart failure independently from traditional risk markers or other biomarkers in diabetic patients with stable CAD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy and safety of once weekly subcutaneous idrabiotaparinux in the treatment of patients with symptomatic deep venous thrombosis.

PubMed

2011-01-01

Idraparinux, a long acting inhibitor of factor (F) Xa, is as effective as standard anticoagulant therapy for patients with symptomatic deep venous thrombosis. We investigated the potential use of the biotinylated molecule, idrabiotaparinux. Biotinylation enables reversal of the anticoagulant effect. We performed a randomized double-blind trial in 757 patients with symptomatic deep venous thrombosis, comparing equimolar doses of idrabiotaparinux (3 mg) with idraparinux (2.5 mg), both given subcutaneously, once weekly for 6 months. Inhibition of FXa activity was measured at days 15, 36, 57, 92 and 183. The efficacy outcome was recurrent venous thromboembolism. The safety outcomes were clinically relevant bleeding and death. Inhibition of FXa was similar in the two treatment groups at each time point of measurement. Recurrent venous thromboembolism during the 6-month treatment period occurred in nine of 386 patients (2.3%) in the idrabiotaparinux group and in 12 of 371 patients (3.2%) in the idraparinux group, a difference of - 0.9% (95% confidence interval, -3.2-1.4%). The incidence of clinically relevant bleeding was 5.2% in the idrabiotaparinux group and 7.3% in the idraparinux group (P = 0.29), a difference of - 2.1% (95% confidence interval, -5.6-1.4%). Six patients (1.6%) who received idrabiotaparinux died, compared with 12 patients (3.2%) given idraparinux, a difference of - 1.7% (95% confidence interval, -3.9-0.5%). Idrabiotaparinux has a similar time course of FXa inhibition, efficacy and safety to idraparinux for the treatment of deep venous thrombosis. © 2010 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Implementation of standardized follow-up care significantly reduces peritonitis in children on chronic peritoneal dialysis.

PubMed

Neu, Alicia M; Richardson, Troy; Lawlor, John; Stuart, Jayne; Newland, Jason; McAfee, Nancy; Warady, Bradley A

2016-06-01

The Standardizing Care to improve Outcomes in Pediatric End stage renal disease (SCOPE) Collaborative aims to reduce peritonitis rates in pediatric chronic peritoneal dialysis patients by increasing implementation of standardized care practices. To assess this, monthly care bundle compliance and annualized monthly peritonitis rates were evaluated from 24 SCOPE centers that were participating at collaborative launch and that provided peritonitis rates for the 13 months prior to launch. Changes in bundle compliance were assessed using either a logistic regression model or a generalized linear mixed model. Changes in average annualized peritonitis rates over time were illustrated using the latter model. In the first 36 months of the collaborative, 644 patients with 7977 follow-up encounters were included. The likelihood of compliance with follow-up care practices increased significantly (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.10, 1.19). Mean monthly peritonitis rates significantly decreased from 0.63 episodes per patient year (95% confidence interval 0.43, 0.92) prelaunch to 0.42 (95% confidence interval 0.31, 0.57) at 36 months postlaunch. A sensitivity analysis confirmed that as mean follow-up compliance increased, peritonitis rates decreased, reaching statistical significance at 80% at which point the prelaunch rate was 42% higher than the rate in the months following achievement of 80% compliance. In its first 3 years, the SCOPE Collaborative has increased the implementation of standardized follow-up care and demonstrated a significant reduction in average monthly peritonitis rates. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of atomoxetine on the QT interval in healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizers

PubMed Central

Loghin, Corina; Haber, Harry; Beasley, Charles M; Kothare, Prajakti A; Kauffman, Lynnette; April, John; Jin, Ling; Allen, Albert J; Mitchell, Malcolm I

2013-01-01

Aim The effects of atomoxetine (20 and 60 mg twice daily), 400 mg moxifloxacin and placebo on QTc in 131 healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizer males were compared. Methods Atomoxetine doses were selected to result in plasma concentrations that approximated expected plasma concentrations at both the maximum recommended dose and at a supratherapeutic dose in CYP2D6 extensive metabolizers. Ten second electrocardiograms were obtained for time-matched baseline on days −2 and −1, three time points after dosing on day 1 for moxifloxacin and five time points on day 7 for atomoxetine and placebo. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline model-corrected QT (QTcM) on day 7 was the primary endpoint. Results QTcM differences for atomoxetine 20 and 60 mg twice daily were 0.5 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 2.2 ms) and 4.2 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 6.0 ms), respectively. As plasma concentration of atomoxetine increased, a statistically significant increase in QTc was observed. The moxifloxacin difference from placebo met the a priori definition of non-inferiority. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline QTcM for moxifloxacin was 4.8 ms and this difference was statistically significant. Moxifloxacin plasma concentrations were below the concentrations expected from the literature. However, the slope of the plasma concentration−QTc change observed was consistent with the literature. Conclusion Atomoxetine was not associated with a clinically significant change in QTc. However, a statistically significant increase in QTc was associated with increasing plasma concentrations. PMID:22803597

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

QMG and MG-ADL correlations: Study of eculizumab treatment of myasthenia gravis.

PubMed

Howard, James F; Freimer, Miriam; O'Brien, Fanny; Wang, Jing Jing; Collins, Stephen R; Kissel, John T

2017-08-01

A phase 2 study of eculizumab for treating myasthenia gravis (MG) used the quantitative myasthenia gravis score (QMG) and myasthenia gravis activities of daily living profile (MG-ADL) to evaluate baseline disease severity and treatment response. Correlations were then analyzed between these assessments. Patients were given eculizumab or placebo during the first 16-week treatment period of the crossover study, with treatment assignments reversed for the second treatment period following a 5-week washout. QMG and MG-ADL scores at baseline and endpoint of each treatment period generated correlation coefficients for baseline status and treatment response during eculizumab therapy. Correlation strength between QMG and MG-ADL scores was higher for treatment response (R = 0.726; 95% confidence interval, 0.264-0.907; P = 0.0036) than for assessing baseline disease status (R = 0.552; 95% confidence interval, -0.022-0.839; P = 0.0495). MG-ADL may be more sensitive for assessing treatment response than point-in-time disease status. Muscle Nerve 56: 328-330, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rethinking indicators of microbial drinking water quality for health studies in tropical developing countries: case study in northern coastal Ecuador.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Nelson, Kara L; Hubbard, Alan; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

2012-03-01

To address the problem of the health impacts of unsafe drinking water, methods are needed to assess microbiologic contamination in water. However, indicators of water quality have provided mixed results. We evaluate five assays (three for Escherichia coli and one each for enterococci and somatic coliphage) of microbial contamination in villages in rural Ecuador that rely mostly on untreated drinking water. Only membrane filtration for E. coli using mI agar detected a significant association with household diarrheal disease outcome (odds ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.65 in household containers and odds ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.37) in source samples. Our analysis and other published research points to the need for further consideration of study design factors, such as sample size and variability in measurements, when using indicator organisms, especially when relating water quality exposure to health outcomes. Although indicator organisms are used extensively in health studies, we argue that their use requires a full understanding of their purposes and limitations.

Hypnosis for Smoking Relapse Prevention: A Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Carmody, Timothy P; Duncan, Carol L; Solkowitz, Sharon N; Huggins, Joy; Simon, Joel A

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether hypnosis would be more effective than standard behavioral counseling in helping smokers to remain abstinent. A total of 140 current smokers were enrolled in a randomized controlled smoking cessation trial at an urban Veterans Affairs medical center. Participants (n = 102) who were able to quit for at least 3 days received either a hypnosis or behavioral relapse prevention intervention. Both relapse prevention interventions consisted of two 60 min face-to-face sessions and four 20 min follow-up phone calls (two phone calls per week). At 26 weeks, the validate\\d point-prevalence quit rate was 35% for the hypnosis group and 42% for the behavioral counseling group (relative risk = 0.85; 95% confidence interval: 0.52-1.40). At 52 weeks, the validated quit rate was 29% for the hypnosis group and 28% for the behavioral group (relative risk  = 1.03; 95% confidence interval: 0.56-1.91). It was concluded that hypnosis warrants further investigation as an intervention for facilitating maintenance of quitting.

Rethinking Indicators of Microbial Drinking Water Quality for Health Studies in Tropical Developing Countries: Case Study in Northern Coastal Ecuador

PubMed Central

Levy, Karen; Nelson, Kara L.; Hubbard, Alan; Eisenberg, Joseph N. S.

2012-01-01

To address the problem of the health impacts of unsafe drinking water, methods are needed to assess microbiologic contamination in water. However, indicators of water quality have provided mixed results. We evaluate five assays (three for Escherichia coli and one each for enterococci and somatic coliphage) of microbial contamination in villages in rural Ecuador that rely mostly on untreated drinking water. Only membrane filtration for E. coli using mI agar detected a significant association with household diarrheal disease outcome (odds ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = 1.02–1.65 in household containers and odds ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.02–1.37) in source samples. Our analysis and other published research points to the need for further consideration of study design factors, such as sample size and variability in measurements, when using indicator organisms, especially when relating water quality exposure to health outcomes. Although indicator organisms are used extensively in health studies, we argue that their use requires a full understanding of their purposes and limitations. PMID:22403326

Financial Hardship and Patient-Reported Outcomes after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Abel, Gregory A; Albelda, Randy; Khera, Nandita; Hahn, Theresa; Salas Coronado, Diana Y; Odejide, Oreofe O; Bona, Kira; Tucker-Seeley, Reginald; Soiffer, Robert

2016-08-01

Although hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the only curative therapy for many advanced hematologic cancers, little is known about the financial hardship experienced by HCT patients nor the association of hardship with patient-reported outcomes. We mailed a 43-item survey to adult patients approximately 180 days after their first autologous or allogeneic HCT at 3 high-volume centers. We assessed decreases in household income; difficulty with HCT-related costs, such as need to relocate or travel; and 2 types of hardship: hardship_1 (reporting 1 or 2 of the following: dissatisfaction with present finances, difficulty meeting monthly bill payments, or not having enough money at the end of the month) and "hardship_2" (reporting all 3). Patient-reported stress was measured with the Perceived Stress Scale-4, and 7-point scales were provided for perceptions of overall quality of life (QOL) and health. In total, 325 of 499 surveys (65.1%) were received. The median days since HCT was 173; 47% underwent an allogeneic HCT, 60% were male, 51% were > 60 years old, and 92% were white. Overall, 46% reported income decline after HCT, 56% reported hardship_1, and 15% reported hardship_2. In multivariable models controlling for income, those reporting difficulty paying for HCT-related costs were more likely to report financial hardship (odds ratio, 6.9; 95% confidence interval, 3.8 to 12.3). Hardship_1 was associated with QOL below the median (odds ratio, 2.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 4.9), health status below the median (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 3.6), and stress above the median (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 3.5). In this sizable cohort of HCT patients, financial hardship was prevalent and associated with worse QOL and higher levels of perceived stress. Interventions to address patient financial hardship-especially those that ameliorate HCT-specific costs-are likely to improve patient-reported outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Subgroup analyses of the safety and efficacy of ramucirumab in Japanese and Western patients in RAINBOW: a randomized clinical trial in second-line treatment of gastric cancer.

PubMed

Shitara, Kohei; Muro, Kei; Shimada, Yasuhiro; Hironaka, Shuichi; Sugimoto, Naotoshi; Komatsu, Yoshito; Nishina, Tomohiro; Yamaguchi, Kensei; Segawa, Yoshihiko; Omuro, Yasushi; Tamura, Takao; Doi, Toshihiko; Yukisawa, Seigo; Yasui, Hirofumi; Nagashima, Fumio; Gotoh, Masahiro; Esaki, Taito; Emig, Michael; Chandrawansa, Kumari; Liepa, Astra M; Wilke, Hansjochen; Ichimiya, Yukako; Ohtsu, Atsushi

2016-07-01

We evaluated the safety and efficacy of ramucirumab plus paclitaxel versus placebo plus paclitaxel in patients previously treated for advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma in Japanese and Western subgroups from the RAINBOW trial. Patients received ramucirumab at 8 mg/kg or placebo (days 1 and 15) plus paclitaxel at 80 mg/m(2) (days 1, 8, and 15 of a 28-day cycle). End points were compared between treatment arms within Japanese (N = 140) and Western (N = 398) populations. The incidence of adverse events of grade 3 or higher was higher for ramucirumab plus paclitaxel in both populations (Japanese population, 83.8 % vs 52.1 %; Western population, 79.1 % vs 61.9 %). Neutropenia was the commonest adverse event of grade 3 or higher, with a higher incidence for ramucirumab plus paclitaxel (Japanese population, 66.2 % vs 25.4 %; Western population, 32.1 % vs 14.7 %). The incidence of febrile neutropenia was low and was similar between treatment arms in both populations. The overall survival hazard ratio was 0.88 (95 % confidence interval, 0.60-1.28) in the Japanese population and 0.73 (95 % confidence interval, 0.58-0.91) in the Western population. The progression-free survival hazard ratio was 0.50 (95 % confidence interval, 0.35-0.73) in the Japanese population and 0.63 (95 % confidence interval, 0.51-0.79) in the Western population. The objective response rate was higher for ramucirumab plus paclitaxel in both populations (Japanese population, 41.2 % vs 19.4 %; Western population, 26.8 % vs 13.0 %), as was the 6-month survival rate (Japanese population, 94.1 % vs 71.4 %; Western population, 66.0 % vs 49.0 %). Safety profiles of the ramucirumab plus paclitaxel arm were similar between populations, though there was a higher incidence of neutropenia in Japanese patients. Progression-free survival and objective response rate improvements were observed for ramucirumab plus paclitaxel in both populations. CLINICALTRIALS. NCT01170663.

Conservative Management and End-of-Life Care in an Australian Cohort with ESRD

PubMed Central

Webster, Angela C.; McGeechan, Kevin; Howard, Kirsten; Murtagh, Fliss E.M.; Gray, Nicholas A.; Kerr, Peter G.; Germain, Michael J.; Snelling, Paul

2016-01-01

Background and objectives We aimed to determine the proportion of patients who switched to dialysis after confirmed plans for conservative care and compare survival and end-of-life care among patients choosing conservative care with those initiating RRT. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A cohort study of 721 patients on incident dialysis, patients receiving transplants, and conservatively managed patients from 66 Australian renal units entered into the Patient Information about Options for Treatment Study from July 1 to September 30, 2009 were followed for 3 years. A two–sided binomial test assessed the proportion of patients who switched from conservative care to RRT. Cox regression, stratified by center and adjusted for patient and treatment characteristics, estimated factors associated with 3-year survival. Results In total, 102 of 721 patients planned for conservative care, and median age was 80 years old. Of these, 8% (95% confidence interval, 3% to 13%), switched to dialysis, predominantly for symptom management. Of 94 patients remaining on a conservative pathway, 18% were alive at 3 years. Of the total 721 patients, 247 (34%) died by study end. In multivariable analysis, factors associated with all-cause mortality included older age (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.36 to 1.77), baseline serum albumin <3.0 versus 3.7–5.4 g/dl (hazard ratio, 4.31; 95% confidence interval, 2.72 to 6.81), and management with conservative care compared with RRT (hazard ratio, 2.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 3.40). Of 247 deaths, patients managed with RRT were less likely to receive specialist palliative care (26% versus 57%; P<0.001), more likely to die in the hospital (66% versus 42%; P<0.001) than home or hospice, and more likely to receive palliative care only within the last week of life (42% versus 15%; P<0.001) than those managed conservatively. Conclusions Survival after 3 years of conservative management is common, with relatively few patients switching to dialysis. Specialist palliative care services are used more frequently and at an earlier time point for conservatively managed patients, a practice associated with better symptom management and quality of life. PMID:27697783

Sleep Duration and Overweight/Obesity in Preschool-Aged Children: A Prospective Study of up to 48,922 Children of the Jiaxing Birth Cohort

PubMed Central

Wang, Fenglei; Liu, Huijuan; Wan, Yi; Li, Jing; Chen, Yu; Zheng, Jusheng; Huang, Tao; Li, Duo

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: To examine the association between sleep duration and overweight/obesity in preschool-aged children. Methods: A total of 48,922 3-year old children enrolled in the Jiaxing Birth Cohort, who provided sleep information and anthropometric data, were included in the present study as baseline and were followed up to 5 years of age. Sleep duration was categorized as ≤ 10 hours, 11–12 hours, and ≥ 13 hours. Overweight and obesity were defined according to the cut point criteria in China. Prevalence ratios and risk ratios were used to assess the association between sleep duration and risk of overweight/obesity. Results: In cross-sectional analyses at baseline, the adjusted prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) of overweight (with 11–12 h of sleep being considered the reference group) for children sleeping ≤ 10 h and ≥ 13 h were 1.13 (1.06–1.20) and 1.16 (1.09–1.24), respectively, whereas the adjusted prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) of obesity were 1.25 (1.11–1.40) and 1.25 (1.11–1.42). In longitudinal analyses, the adjusted risk ratios (95% confidence interval) of overweight for children sleeping ≤ 10 h and ≥ 13 h were 1.48 (1.26–1.74) and 1.13 (0.96–1.34), while adjusted risk ratios (95% confidence interval) of obesity were 1.77 (1.30–2.40) and 1.19 (0.85–1.66). Restricted cubic splines regression supported U-shaped curvilinear associations between sleep duration and overweight/obesity in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Conclusions: Both short and overlong sleep duration are associated with a higher risk of overweight/obesity in preschool-aged children. Optimizing sleep duration may be an important modifiable intervention for overweight and obesity. Citation: Wang F, Liu H, Wan Y, Li J, Chen Y, Zheng J, Huang T, Li D. Sleep duration and overweight/obesity in preschool-aged children: a prospective study of up to 48,922 children of the Jiaxing birth cohort. SLEEP 2016;39(11):2013–2019. PMID:27568808

Efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin among elderly patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in the Rivaroxaban Once Daily, Oral, Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF).

PubMed

Halperin, Jonathan L; Hankey, Graeme J; Wojdyla, Daniel M; Piccini, Jonathan P; Lokhnygina, Yuliya; Patel, Manesh R; Breithardt, Günter; Singer, Daniel E; Becker, Richard C; Hacke, Werner; Paolini, John F; Nessel, Christopher C; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Califf, Robert M; Fox, Keith A A

2014-07-08

Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation is common in elderly patients, who face an elevated risk of stroke but difficulty sustaining warfarin treatment. The oral factor Xa inhibitor rivaroxaban was noninferior to warfarin in the Rivaroxaban Once Daily, Oral, Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF). This prespecified secondary analysis compares outcomes in older and younger patients. There were 6229 patients (44%) aged ≥75 years with atrial fibrillation and ≥2 stroke risk factors randomized to warfarin (target international normalized ratio=2.0-3.0) or rivaroxaban (20 mg daily; 15 mg if creatinine clearance <50 mL/min), double blind. The primary end point was stroke and systemic embolism by intention to treat. Over 10 866 patient-years, older participants had more primary events (2.57% versus 2.05%/100 patient-years; P=0.0068) and major bleeding (4.63% versus 2.74%/100 patient-years; P<0.0001). Stroke/systemic embolism rates were consistent among older (2.29% rivaroxaban versus 2.85% warfarin per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio=0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.02) and younger patients (2.00% versus 2.10%/100 patient-years; hazard ratio=0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.19; interaction P=0.313), as were major bleeding rates (≥75 years: 4.86% rivaroxaban versus 4.40% warfarin per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio=1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-1.34; <75 years: 2.69% versus 2.79%/100 patient-years; hazard ratio=0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.19; interaction P=0.336). Hemorrhagic stroke rates were similar in both age groups; there was no interaction between age and rivaroxaban response. Elderly patients had higher stroke and major bleeding rates than younger patients, but the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban relative to warfarin did not differ with age, supporting rivaroxaban as an alternative for the elderly. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Rotondi, Michael A

2014-06-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tully, Phillip J; Cosh, Suzanne M

2013-12-01

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease patients remain unquantified. Systematic searching of Medline, Embase, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases revealed 1025 unique citations. Aggregate generalized anxiety disorder prevalence (12 studies, N = 3485) was 10.94 per cent (95% confidence interval: 7.8-13.99) and 13.52 per cent (95% confidence interval: 8.39-18.66) employing Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria (random effects). Lifetime generalized anxiety disorder prevalence was 25.80 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20.84-30.77). In seven studies, modest correlation was evident between generalized anxiety disorder and depression, Fisher's Z = .30 (95% confidence interval: .19-.42), suggesting that each psychiatric disorder is best conceptualized as contributing unique variance to coronary heart disease prognosis.

Autonomous motivation mediates the relation between goals for physical activity and physical activity behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Duncan, Michael J; Eyre, Emma Lj; Bryant, Elizabeth; Seghers, Jan; Galbraith, Niall; Nevill, Alan M

2017-04-01

Overall, 544 children (mean age ± standard deviation = 14.2 ± .94 years) completed self-report measures of physical activity goal content, behavioral regulations, and physical activity behavior. Body mass index was determined from height and mass. The indirect effect of intrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 162.27; 95% confidence interval [89.73, 244.70]), but not controlled motivation ( b = 5.30; 95% confidence interval [-39.05, 45.16]). The indirect effect of extrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 106.25; 95% confidence interval [63.74, 159.13]) but not controlled motivation ( b = 17.28; 95% confidence interval [-31.76, 70.21]). Weight status did not alter these findings.

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

Socioeconomic inequalities in risk factors for non communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries: results from the World Health Survey

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Monitoring inequalities in non communicable disease risk factor prevalence can help to inform and target effective interventions. The prevalence of current daily smoking, low fruit and vegetable consumption, physical inactivity, and heavy episodic alcohol drinking were quantified and compared across wealth and education levels in low- and middle-income country groups. Methods This study included self-reported data from 232,056 adult participants in 48 countries, derived from the 2002–2004 World Health Survey. Data were stratified by sex and low- or middle-income country status. The main outcome measurements were risk factor prevalence rates reported by wealth quintile and five levels of educational attainment. Socioeconomic inequalities were measured using the slope index of inequality, reflecting differences in prevalence rates, and the relative index of inequality, reflecting the prevalence ratio between the two extremes of wealth or education accounting for the entire distribution. Data were adjusted for confounding factors: sex, age, marital status, area of residence, and country of residence. Results Smoking and low fruit and vegetable consumption were significantly higher among lower socioeconomic groups. The highest wealth-related absolute inequality was seen in smoking among men of low- income country group (slope index of inequality 23.0 percentage points; 95% confidence interval 19.6, 26.4). The slope index of inequality for low fruit and vegetable consumption across the entire distribution of education was around 8 percentage points in both sexes and both country income groups. Physical inactivity was less prevalent in populations of low socioeconomic status, especially in low-income countries (relative index of inequality: (men) 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.33, 0.64; (women) 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.42, 0.65). Mixed patterns were found for heavy drinking. Conclusions Disaggregated analysis of the prevalence of non-communicable disease risk factors demonstrated different patterns and varying degrees of socioeconomic inequalities across low- and middle-income settings. Interventions should aim to reach and achieve sustained benefits for high-risk populations. PMID:23102008

Terrestrial laser scanning used to detect asymmetries in boat hulls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; López-Alvarez, Francisco; Ordóñez, Celestino; Menéndez, Agustín; Bernardo-Sánchez, Antonio

2012-01-01

We describe a methodology for identifying asymmetries in boat hull sections reconstructed from point clouds captured using a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). A surface was first fit to the point cloud using a nonparametric regression method that permitted the construction of a continuous smooth surface. Asymmetries in cross-sections of the surface were identified using a bootstrap resampling technique that took into account uncertainty in the coordinates of the scanned points. Each reconstructed section was analyzed to check, for a given level of significance, that it was within the confidence interval for the theoretical symmetrical section. The method was applied to the study of asymmetries in a medium-sized yacht. Identified were differences of up to 5 cm between the real and theoretical sections in some parts of the hull.

New-generation stents compared with coronary bypass surgery for unprotected left main disease: A word of caution.

PubMed

Benedetto, Umberto; Taggart, David P; Sousa-Uva, Miguel; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Di Franco, Antonino; Ohmes, Lucas B; Rahouma, Mohamed; Kamel, Mohamed; Caputo, Massimo; Girardi, Leonard N; Angelini, Gianni D; Gaudino, Mario

2018-05-01

With the advent of bare metal stents and drug-eluting stents, percutaneous coronary intervention has emerged as an alternative to coronary artery bypass grafting surgery for unprotected left main disease. However, whether the evolution of stents technology has translated into better results after percutaneous coronary intervention remains unclear. We aimed to compare coronary artery bypass grafting with stents of different generations for left main disease by performing a Bayesian network meta-analysis of available randomized controlled trials. All randomized controlled trials with at least 1 arm randomized to percutaneous coronary intervention with stents or coronary artery bypass grafting for left main disease were included. Bare metal stents and drug-eluting stents of first- and second-generation were compared with coronary artery bypass grafting. Poisson methods and Bayesian framework were used to compute the head-to-head incidence rate ratio and 95% credible intervals. Primary end points were the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke and repeat revascularization. Nine randomized controlled trials were included in the final analysis. Six trials compared percutaneous coronary intervention with coronary artery bypass grafting (n = 4654), and 3 trials compared different types of stents (n = 1360). Follow-up ranged from 6 months to 5 years. Second-generation drug-eluting stents (incidence rate ratio, 1.3; 95% credible interval, 1.1-1.6), but not bare metal stents (incidence rate ratio, 0.63; 95% credible interval, 0.27-1.4), and first-generation drug-eluting stents (incidence rate ratio, 0.85; 95% credible interval, 0.65-1.1) were associated with a significantly increased risk of death/myocardial infarction/stroke when compared with coronary artery bypass grafting. When compared with coronary artery bypass grafting, the highest risk of repeat revascularization was observed for bare metal stents (hazard ratio, 5.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-14), whereas first-generation drug-eluting stents (incidence rate ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.4) and second-generation drug-eluting stents (incidence rate ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.4) were comparable. The introduction of new-generation drug-eluting stents did not translate into better outcomes for percutaneous coronary intervention when compared with coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Confidence Intervals and Recurrence Intervals to Determine Precipitation Delivery Mechanisms Responsible for Mass Wasting Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulizio, T. P.; Bilbrey, C.; Stoyanoff, N.; Dixon, J. L.

2015-12-01

Mass wasting events are geologic hazards that impact human life and property across a variety of landscapes. These movements can be triggered by tectonic activity, anomalous precipitation events, or both; acting to decrease the factor of safety ratio on a hillslope to the point of failure. There exists an active hazard landscape in the West Boulder River drainage of Park Co., MT in which the mechanisms of slope failure are unknown. It is known that region has not seen significant tectonic activity within the last decade, leaving anomalous precipitation events as the likely trigger for slope failures in the landscape. Precipitation can be delivered to a landscape via rainfall or snow; it was the aim of this study to determine the precipitation delivery mechanism most likely responsible for movements in the West Boulder drainage following the Jungle Wildfire of 2006. Data was compiled from four SNOTEL sites in the surrounding area, spanning 33 years, focusing on, but not limited to; maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) values in a water year, median SWE values on the date which maximum SWE was recorded in a water year, the total precipitation accumulated in a water year, etc. Means were computed and 99% confidence intervals were constructed around these means. Recurrence intervals and exceedance probabilities were computed for maximum SWE values and total precipitation accumulated in a water year to determine water years with anomalous precipitation. It was determined that the water year 2010-2011 received an anomalously high amount of SWE, and snow melt in the spring of this water year likely triggered recent mass waste movements. This data is further supported by Google Earth imagery, showing movements between 2009 and 2011. Return intervals for the maximum SWE value in 2010-11 for the Placer Basin SNOTEL site was 34 years, while return intervals for the Box Canyon and Monument Peak SNOTEL sites were 17.5 and 17 years respectively. Max SWE values lie outside the upper bound of the 99% confidence interval at all SNOTEL sites while precipitation accumulated in the form of rain is within the expected average, indicating an anomalously snow year and average amounts of rainfall during the same water year. This information can be used to better predict circumstances leading to slope failures in northern latitude alpine landscapes.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Clinical effectiveness of a manual based coping strategy programme (START, STrAtegies for RelaTives) in promoting the mental health of carers of family members with dementia: pragmatic randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Livingston, Gill; Barber, Julie; Rapaport, Penny; Knapp, Martin; Griffin, Mark; King, Derek; Livingston, Debbie; Mummery, Cath; Walker, Zuzana; Hoe, Juanita; Sampson, Elizabeth L; Cooper, Claudia

2013-10-25

To assess whether a manual based coping strategy compared with treatment as usual reduces depression and anxiety symptoms in carers of family members with dementia. Randomised, parallel group, superiority trial. Three mental health community services and one neurological outpatient dementia service in London and Essex, UK. 260 carers of family members with dementia. A manual based coping intervention comprising eight sessions and delivered by supervised psychology graduates to carers of family members with dementia. The programme consisted of psychoeducation about dementia, carers' stress, and where to get emotional support; understanding behaviours of the family member being cared for, and behavioural management techniques; changing unhelpful thoughts; promoting acceptance; assertive communication; relaxation; planning for the future; increasing pleasant activities; and maintaining skills learnt. Carers practised these techniques at home, using the manual and relaxation CDs. Affective symptoms (hospital anxiety and depression total score) at four and eight months. Secondary outcomes were depression and anxiety caseness on the hospital anxiety and depression scale; quality of life of both the carer (health status questionnaire, mental health) and the recipient of care (quality of life-Alzheimer's disease); and potentially abusive behaviour by the carer towards the recipient of care (modified conflict tactics scale). 260 carers were recruited; 173 were randomised to the intervention and 87 to treatment as usual. Mean total scores on the hospital anxiety and depression scale were lower in the intervention group than in the treatment as usual group over the eight month evaluation period: adjusted difference in means -1.80 points (95% confidence interval -3.29 to -0.31; P=0.02) and absolute difference in means -2.0 points. Carers in the intervention group were less likely to have case level depression (odds ratio 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.76) and there was a non-significant trend towards reduced case level anxiety (0.30, 0.08 to 1.05). Carers' quality of life was higher in the intervention group (difference in means 4.09, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 7.83) but not for the recipient of care (difference in means 0.59, -0.72 to 1.89). Carers in the intervention group reported less abusive behaviour towards the recipient of care compared with those in the treatment as usual group (odds ratio 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.18 to 1.23), although this was not significant. A manual based coping strategy was effective in reducing affective symptoms and case level depression in carers of family members with dementia. The carers' quality of life also improved. Current Controlled Trials ISCTRN70017938.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Targeted Recombinant Progeny: a design for ultra-high resolution mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci in crosses between inbred or pure lines.

PubMed

Heifetz, Eliyahu M; Soller, Morris

2015-07-07

High-resolution mapping of the loci (QTN) responsible for genetic variation in quantitative traits is essential for positional cloning of candidate genes, and for effective marker assisted selection. The confidence interval (QTL) flanking the point estimate of QTN-location is proportional to the number of individuals in the mapping population carrying chromosomes recombinant in the given interval. Consequently, many designs for high resolution QTN mapping are based on increasing the proportion of recombinants in the mapping population. The "Targeted Recombinant Progeny" (TRP) design is a new design for high resolution mapping of a target QTN in crosses between pure, or inbred lines. It is a three-generation procedure generating a large number of recombinant individuals within a QTL previously shown to contain a QTN. This is achieved by having individuals that carry chromosomes recombinant across the target QTL interval as parents of a large mapping population; most of whom will therefore carry recombinant chromosomes targeted to the given QTL. The TRP design is particularly useful for high resolution mapping of QTN that differentiate inbred or pure lines, and hence are not amenable to high resolution mapping by genome-wide association tests. In the absence of residual polygenic variation, population sizes required for achieving given mapping resolution by the TRP-F2 design relative to a standard F2 design ranged from 0.289 for a QTN with standardized allele substitution effect = 0.2, mapped to an initial QTL of 0.2 Morgan to 0.041 for equivalent QTN mapped to an initial QTL of 0.02 M. In the presence of residual polygenic variation, the relative effectiveness of the TRP design ranges from 1.068 to 0.151 for the same initial QTL intervals and QTN effect. Thus even in the presence of polygenic variation, the TRP can still provide major savings. Simulation showed that mapping by TRP should be based on 30-50 markers spanning the initial interval; and on at least 50 or more G2 families representing this number of recombination points,. The TRP design can be an effective procedure for achieving high and ultra-high mapping resolution of a target QTN previously mapped to a known confidence interval (QTL).

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Associations of Maternal Weight Gain in Pregnancy With Offspring Cognition in Childhood and Adolescence: Findings From the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

PubMed Central

Gage, Suzanne H.; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Tilling, Kate; Fraser, Abigail

2013-01-01

An association of gestational weight gain (GWG) with offspring cognition has been postulated. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a United Kingdom prospective cohort (1990 through the present) with a median of 10 maternal weight measurements in pregnancy. These were used to allocate participants to 2009 Institute of Medicine weight-gain categories and in random effect linear spline models. Outcomes were School Entry Assessment score (age, 4 years; n = 5,832), standardized intelligence quotient assessed by Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (age, 8 years; n = 5,191), and school final-examination results (age, 16 years; n = 7,339). Offspring of women who gained less weight than recommended had a 0.075 standard deviation lower mean School Entry Assessment score (95% confidence interval: −0.127, −0.023) and were less likely to achieve adequate final-examination results (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.78, 0.99) compared with offspring of women who gained as recommended. GWG in early pregnancy (defined as 0–18 weeks on the basis of a knot point at 18 weeks) and midpregnancy (defined as 18–28 weeks on the basis of knot points at 18 and 28 weeks) was positively associated with School Entry Assessment score and intelligence quotient. GWG in late pregnancy (defined as 28 weeks onward on the basis of a knot point at 28 weeks) was positively associated with offspring intelligence quotient and with increased odds of offspring achieving adequate final-examination results in mothers who were overweight prepregnancy. Findings support small positive associations between GWG and offspring cognitive development, which may have lasting effects on educational attainment up to age 16 years. PMID:23388581

Associations of maternal weight gain in pregnancy with offspring cognition in childhood and adolescence: findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.

PubMed

Gage, Suzanne H; Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate; Fraser, Abigail

2013-03-01

An association of gestational weight gain (GWG) with offspring cognition has been postulated. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a United Kingdom prospective cohort (1990 through the present) with a median of 10 maternal weight measurements in pregnancy. These were used to allocate participants to 2009 Institute of Medicine weight-gain categories and in random effect linear spline models. Outcomes were School Entry Assessment score (age, 4 years; n = 5,832), standardized intelligence quotient assessed by Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (age, 8 years; n = 5,191), and school final-examination results (age, 16 years; n = 7,339). Offspring of women who gained less weight than recommended had a 0.075 standard deviation lower mean School Entry Assessment score (95% confidence interval: -0.127, -0.023) and were less likely to achieve adequate final-examination results (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.78, 0.99) compared with offspring of women who gained as recommended. GWG in early pregnancy (defined as 0-18 weeks on the basis of a knot point at 18 weeks) and midpregnancy (defined as 18-28 weeks on the basis of knot points at 18 and 28 weeks) was positively associated with School Entry Assessment score and intelligence quotient. GWG in late pregnancy (defined as 28 weeks onward on the basis of a knot point at 28 weeks) was positively associated with offspring intelligence quotient and with increased odds of offspring achieving adequate final-examination results in mothers who were overweight prepregnancy. Findings support small positive associations between GWG and offspring cognitive development, which may have lasting effects on educational attainment up to age 16 years.

Evaluation of Short-Term Changes in Serum Creatinine Level as a Meaningful End Point in Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Coca, Steven G; Zabetian, Azadeh; Ferket, Bart S; Zhou, Jing; Testani, Jeffrey M; Garg, Amit X; Parikh, Chirag R

2016-08-01

Observational studies have shown that acute change in kidney function (specifically, AKI) is a strong risk factor for poor outcomes. Thus, the outcome of acute change in serum creatinine level, regardless of underlying biology or etiology, is frequently used in clinical trials as both efficacy and safety end points. We performed a meta-analysis of clinical trials to quantify the relationship between positive or negative short-term effects of interventions on change in serum creatinine level and more meaningful clinical outcomes. After a thorough literature search, we included 14 randomized trials of interventions that altered risk for an acute increase in serum creatinine level and had reported between-group differences in CKD and/or mortality rate ≥3 months after randomization. Seven trials assessed interventions that, compared with placebo, increased risk of acute elevation in serum creatinine level (pooled relative risk, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 1.89), and seven trials assessed interventions that, compared with placebo, reduced risk of acute elevation in serum creatinine level (pooled relative risk, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.44 to 0.74). However, pooled risks for CKD and mortality associated with interventions did not differ from those with placebo in either group. In conclusion, several interventions that affect risk of acute, mild to moderate, often temporary elevation in serum creatinine level in placebo-controlled randomized trials showed no appreciable effect on CKD or mortality months later, raising questions about the value of using small to moderate changes in serum creatinine level as end points in clinical trials. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Facial asymmetry quantitative evaluation in oculoauriculovertebral spectrum.

PubMed

Manara, Renzo; Schifano, Giovanni; Brotto, Davide; Mardari, Rodica; Ghiselli, Sara; Gerunda, Antonio; Ghirotto, Cristina; Fusetti, Stefano; Piacentile, Katherine; Scienza, Renato; Ermani, Mario; Martini, Alessandro

2016-03-01

Facial asymmetries in oculoauriculovertebral spectrum (OAVS) patients might require surgical corrections that are mostly based on qualitative approach and surgeon's experience. The present study aimed to develop a quantitative 3D CT imaging-based procedure suitable for maxillo-facial surgery planning in OAVS patients. Thirteen OAVS patients (mean age 3.5 ± 4.0 years; range 0.2-14.2, 6 females) and 13 controls (mean age 7.1 ± 5.3 years; range 0.6-15.7, 5 females) who underwent head CT examination were retrospectively enrolled. Eight bilateral anatomical facial landmarks were defined on 3D CT images (porion, orbitale, most anterior point of frontozygomatic suture, most superior point of temporozygomatic suture, most posterior-lateral point of the maxilla, gonion, condylion, mental foramen) and distance from orthogonal planes (in millimeters) was used to evaluate the asymmetry on each axis and to calculate a global asymmetry index of each anatomical landmark. Mean asymmetry values and relative confidence intervals were obtained from the control group. OAVS patients showed 2.5 ± 1.8 landmarks above the confidence interval while considering the global asymmetry values; 12 patients (92%) showed at least one pathologically asymmetric landmark. Considering each axis, the mean number of pathologically asymmetric landmarks increased to 5.5 ± 2.6 (p = 0.002) and all patients presented at least one significant landmark asymmetry. Modern CT-based 3D reconstructions allow accurate assessment of facial bone asymmetries in patients affected by OAVS. The evaluation as a global score and in different orthogonal axes provides precise quantitative data suitable for maxillo-facial surgical planning. CT-based 3D reconstruction might allow a quantitative approach for planning and following-up maxillo-facial surgery in OAVS patients.

Systemic hypothermia to prevent radiocontrast nephropathy (from the COOL-RCN Randomized Trial).

PubMed

Stone, Gregg W; Vora, Kishor; Schindler, John; Diaz, Claro; Mann, Tift; Dangas, George; Best, Patricia; Cutlip, Donald E

2011-09-01

Radiocontrast nephropathy (RCN) develops in a substantial proportion of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) after invasive cardiology procedures and is strongly associated with subsequent mortality and adverse outcomes. We sought to determine whether systemic hypothermia is effective in preventing RCN in patients with CKD. Patients at risk for RCN (baseline estimated creatinine clearance 20 to 50 ml/min) undergoing cardiac catheterization with iodinated contrast ≥50 ml were randomized 1:1 to hydration (control arm) versus hydration plus establishment of systemic hypothermia (33°C to 34°C) before first contrast injection and for 3 hours after the procedure. Serum creatinine levels at baseline, 24 hours, 48 hours, and 72 to 96 hours were measured at a central core laboratory. The primary efficacy end point was development of RCN, defined as an increase in serum creatinine by ≥25% from baseline. The primary safety end point was 30-day composite rate of adverse events consisting of death, myocardial infarction, dialysis, ventricular fibrillation, venous complication requiring surgery, major bleeding requiring transfusion ≥2 U, or rehospitalization. In total 128 evaluable patients (mean creatinine clearance 36.6 ml/min) were prospectively randomized at 25 medical centers. RCN developed in 18.6% of normothermic patients and in 22.4% of hypothermic patients (odds ratio 1.27, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 3.00, p = 0.59). The primary 30-day safety end point occurred in 37.1% versus 37.9% of normothermic and hypothermic patients, respectively (odds ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 1.98, p = 0.93). In conclusion, in patients with CKD undergoing invasive cardiology procedures, systemic hypothermia is safe but is unlikely to prevent RCN. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Medicaid Coverage Expansions and Cigarette Smoking Cessation Among Low-income Adults.

PubMed

Koma, Jonathan W; Donohue, Julie M; Barry, Colleen L; Huskamp, Haiden A; Jarlenski, Marian

2017-12-01

Expanding Medicaid coverage to low-income adults may have increased smoking cessation through improved access to evidence-based treatments. Our study sought to determine if states' decisions to expand Medicaid increased recent smoking cessation. Using pooled cross-sectional data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey for the years 2011-2015, we examined the association between state Medicaid coverage and the probability of recent smoking cessation among low-income adults without dependent children who were current or former smokers (n=36,083). We used difference-in-differences estimation to examine the effects of Medicaid coverage on smoking cessation, comparing low-income adult smokers in states with Medicaid coverage to comparable adults in states without Medicaid coverage, with ages 18-64 years to those ages 65 years and above. Analyses were conducted for the full sample and stratified by sex. Residence in a state with Medicaid coverage among low-income adult smokers ages 18-64 years was associated with an increase in recent smoking cessation of 2.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 0.25-3.9). In the comparison group of individuals ages 65 years and above, residence in a state with Medicaid coverage expansion was not associated with a change in recent smoking cessation (-0.1 percentage point, 95% confidence interval, -2.1 to 1.8). Similar increases in smoking cessation among those ages 18-64 years were estimated for females and males (1.9 and 2.2 percentage point, respectively). Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that Medicaid coverage expansions may have increased smoking cessation among low-income adults without dependent children via greater access to preventive health care services, including evidence-based smoking cessation services.

Relationships Between Changes in Patient-Reported Health Status and Functional Capacity in Outpatients With Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Flynn, Kathryn E.; Lin, Li; Moe, Gordon W.; Howlett, Jonathan G.; Fine, Lawrence J.; Spertus, John A.; McConnell, Timothy R.; Piña, Ileana L.; Weinfurt, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Background Heart failure trials use a variety of measures of functional capacity and quality of life. Lack of formal assessments of the relationships between changes in multiple aspects of patient-reported health status and measures of functional capacity over time limit the ability to compare results across studies. Methods Using data from HF-ACTION (N = 2331), we used Pearson correlation coefficients and predicted change scores from linear mixed-effects modeling to demonstrate associations between changes in patient-reported health status measured with the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) and the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and changes in peak VO2 and 6-minute walk distance at 3 and 12 months. We examined a 5-point change in KCCQ within individuals to provide a framework for interpreting changes in these measures. Results After adjustment for baseline characteristics, correlations between changes in the VAS and changes in peak VO2 and 6-minute walk distance ranged from 0.13 to 0.28, and correlations between changes in the KCCQ overall and subscale scores and changes in peak VO2 and 6-minute walk distance ranged from 0.18 to 0.34. A 5-point change in KCCQ was associated with a 2.50 ml/kg/min change in peak VO2 (95% confidence interval, 2.21–2.86) and a 112-meter change in 6-minute walk distance (95% confidence interval, 96–134). Conclusions Changes in patient-reported health status are not highly correlated with changes in functional capacity. Our findings generally support the current practice of considering a 5-point change in the KCCQ within individuals to be clinically meaningful. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00047437 PMID:22172441

Risk of hospitalization associated with anticholinergic medication for patients with dementia.

PubMed

Watanabe, Shuichi; Fukatsu, Takahide; Kanemoto, Kosuke

2018-01-01

With the ageing of the general population, demand has grown for measures to prevent hospitalization for dementia, which can exacerbate problems associated with activities of daily living in elderly individuals. Anticholinergic medication has been shown to cause falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in aged patients. However, the risk of hospitalization associated with the administration of anticholinergics is unclear. We analyzed the records of 61 outpatients (26 men, 35 women; mean age: 78 ± 7 years; mean follow-up period: 420 days) diagnosed with dementia (Alzheimer's disease: n = 45; dementia with Lewy bodies: n = 3; undifferentiated n = 13) and prescribed anti-dementia drugs between May 2013 and December 2014. Medication history was noted, and the patients were divided into two groups according to the Anticholinergic Risk Scale: with risk (n = 13) and without risk (n = 48). Outcome was judged based on an end-point of hospitalization or death. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed. Eight patients with anticholinergic risk and 12 without anticholinergic risk reached the end-point (P < 0.005). Analysis with a proportional hazard model showed that anticholinergic medication administration was related to a higher risk for reaching the end-point (crude hazard ratio: 3.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.45-9.04, P < 0.01; adjusted hazard ratio: 4.54, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-20.0, P < 0.05). In contrast, Mini-Mental State Examination score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and the number of drugs were not major risk factors for hospitalization in patients with dementia. The Anticholinergic Risk Scale findings were shown to be a strong predictor of hospitalization for patients with dementia. We should evaluate the anticholinergic burden before initiating anti-dementia therapy. © 2018 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: A prospective study from 1964 to 2014.

PubMed

Suárez-Medina, Ramón; Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina; Britton, John; Fogarty, Andrew W

2016-09-01

The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a reciprocal changes in asthma mortality. Data were obtained on mortality rates from asthma and COPD in Cuba from 1964 to 2014, along with data on prevalence of obesity for this period. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify inflexion points in the data. Although the prevalence of obesity from 1990 to 1995 decreased from 14% to 7%, over the same time period the rate of asthma mortality increased from 4.5 deaths per 100,000 population to 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2010, the obesity prevalence subsequently increased to 15% in 2010, while the asthma mortality rate dropped to 2.3 deaths per 100,000 population. The optimal model for fit of asthma mortality over time gave an increasing linear association from 1964 to 1995 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1993 to 1997), followed by a decrease in asthma mortality rates from 1995 to 1999 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1997 to 2002). These national data do not support the hypothesis that population-based changes in weight are associated with asthma mortality. Other possible explanations for the large decreases in asthma mortality rates include changes in pollution or better delivery of medical care over the same time period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ticagrelor in Acute Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack in Asian Patients: From the SOCRATES Trial (Acute Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack Treated With Aspirin or Ticagrelor and Patient Outcomes).

PubMed

Wang, Yongjun; Minematsu, Kazuo; Wong, Ka Sing Lawrence; Amarenco, Pierre; Albers, Gregory W; Denison, Hans; Easton, J Donald; Evans, Scott R; Held, Peter; Jonasson, Jenny; Molina, Carlos A; Johnston, S Claiborne

2017-01-01

In the SOCRATES trial (Acute Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack Treated With Aspirin or Ticagrelor and Patient Outcomes), ticagrelor was not superior to aspirin. Because of differences in patient demographics and stroke disease pattern in Asia, outcomes of ticagrelor versus aspirin were assessed among Asian patients in a prespecified exploratory analysis. Baseline demographics, treatment effects, and safety of ticagrelor and aspirin were assessed among Asian patients. Differences in outcomes between groups were assessed using Cox proportional hazard model. A total of 3858 (29.2%) SOCRATES participants were recruited in Asia. Among the Asian patients, the primary end point event occurred in 186 (9.6%) of the 1933 patients treated with ticagrelor, versus 224 (11.6%) of the 1925 patients treated with aspirin (hazard ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.99). The exploratory P value for treatment-by-region interaction was 0.27. The primary end point event rate in the Asian subgroup was numerically higher than that in the non-Asian group (10.6% versus 5.7%; nominal P<0.01). Among the Asian patients, the rate of PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes)-defined major bleeding was similar in the ticagrelor group and the aspirin group (0.6% versus 0.8%; hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-1.61). The event rates were numerically higher in the Asian patients. Among the Asian patients with acute stroke or transient ischemic attacks, there was a trend toward a lower hazard ratio in reducing risk of the primary end point of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death in the ticagrelor group. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01994720. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Safety, Feasibility, and Efficacy of Vagus Nerve Stimulation Paired With Upper-Limb Rehabilitation After Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Dawson, Jesse; Pierce, David; Dixit, Anand; Kimberley, Teresa J; Robertson, Michele; Tarver, Brent; Hilmi, Omar; McLean, John; Forbes, Kirsten; Kilgard, Michael P; Rennaker, Robert L; Cramer, Steven C; Walters, Matthew; Engineer, Navzer

2016-01-01

Recent animal studies demonstrate that vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) paired with movement induces movement-specific plasticity in motor cortex and improves forelimb function after stroke. We conducted a randomized controlled clinical pilot study of VNS paired with rehabilitation on upper-limb function after ischemic stroke. Twenty-one participants with ischemic stroke >6 months before and moderate to severe upper-limb impairment were randomized to VNS plus rehabilitation or rehabilitation alone. Rehabilitation consisted of three 2-hour sessions per week for 6 weeks, each involving >400 movement trials. In the VNS group, movements were paired with 0.5-second VNS. The primary objective was to assess safety and feasibility. Secondary end points included change in upper-limb measures (including the Fugl-Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity). Nine participants were randomized to VNS plus rehabilitation and 11 to rehabilitation alone. There were no serious adverse device effects. One patient had transient vocal cord palsy and dysphagia after implantation. Five had minor adverse device effects including nausea and taste disturbance on the evening of therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the change in Fugl-Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity scores was not significantly different (between-group difference, 5.7 points; 95% confidence interval, -0.4 to 11.8). In the per-protocol analysis, there was a significant difference in change in Fugl-Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity score (between-group difference, 6.5 points; 95% confidence interval, 0.4 to 12.6). This study suggests that VNS paired with rehabilitation is feasible and has not raised safety concerns. Additional studies of VNS in adults with chronic stroke will now be performed. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01669161. © 2015 The Authors.

Safety, Feasibility, and Efficacy of Vagus Nerve Stimulation Paired With Upper-Limb Rehabilitation After Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Pierce, David; Dixit, Anand; Kimberley, Teresa J.; Robertson, Michele; Tarver, Brent; Hilmi, Omar; McLean, John; Forbes, Kirsten; Kilgard, Michael P.; Rennaker, Robert L.; Cramer, Steven C.; Walters, Matthew; Engineer, Navzer

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose— Recent animal studies demonstrate that vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) paired with movement induces movement-specific plasticity in motor cortex and improves forelimb function after stroke. We conducted a randomized controlled clinical pilot study of VNS paired with rehabilitation on upper-limb function after ischemic stroke. Methods— Twenty-one participants with ischemic stroke >6 months before and moderate to severe upper-limb impairment were randomized to VNS plus rehabilitation or rehabilitation alone. Rehabilitation consisted of three 2-hour sessions per week for 6 weeks, each involving >400 movement trials. In the VNS group, movements were paired with 0.5-second VNS. The primary objective was to assess safety and feasibility. Secondary end points included change in upper-limb measures (including the Fugl–Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity). Results— Nine participants were randomized to VNS plus rehabilitation and 11 to rehabilitation alone. There were no serious adverse device effects. One patient had transient vocal cord palsy and dysphagia after implantation. Five had minor adverse device effects including nausea and taste disturbance on the evening of therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the change in Fugl–Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity scores was not significantly different (between-group difference, 5.7 points; 95% confidence interval, −0.4 to 11.8). In the per-protocol analysis, there was a significant difference in change in Fugl–Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity score (between-group difference, 6.5 points; 95% confidence interval, 0.4 to 12.6). Conclusions— This study suggests that VNS paired with rehabilitation is feasible and has not raised safety concerns. Additional studies of VNS in adults with chronic stroke will now be performed. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01669161. PMID:26645257

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of age, sex, therapeutic intent, race and severity of advanced heart failure on short-term principal outcomes in the MOMENTUM 3 trial.

PubMed

Goldstein, Daniel J; Mehra, Mandeep R; Naka, Yoshifumi; Salerno, Christopher; Uriel, Nir; Dean, David; Itoh, Akinobu; Pagani, Francis D; Skipper, Eric R; Bhat, Geetha; Raval, Nirav; Bruckner, Brian A; Estep, Jerry D; Cogswell, Rebecca; Milano, Carmelo; Fendelander, Lahn; O'Connell, John B; Cleveland, Joseph

2018-01-01

Primary outcomes analysis of the Multicenter Study of MagLev Technology in Patients Undergoing MCS Therapy With HeartMate 3 (MOMENTUM 3) trial short-term cohort demonstrated a higher survival rate free of debilitating stroke and reoperation to replace/remove the device (primary end-point) in patients receiving the HeartMate 3 (HM3) compared with the HeartMate (HMII). In this study we sought to evaluate the individual and interactive effects of pre-specified patient subgroups (age, sex, race, therapeutic intent [bridge to transplant/bridge to candidacy/destination therapy] and severity of illness) on primary end-point outcomes in MOMENTUM 3 patients implanted with HM3 and HMII devices. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze patients enrolled in the "as-treated cohort" (n = 289) of the MOMENTUM 3 trial to: (1) determine interaction of various subgroups on primary end-point outcomes; and (2) identify independent variables associated with primary end-point success. Baseline characteristics were well balanced among HM3 (n = 151) and HMII (n = 138) cohorts. No significant interaction between the sub-groups on primary end-point outcomes was observed. Cox multivariable modeling identified age (≤65 years vs >65 years, hazard ratio 0.42 [95% confidence interval 0.22 to 0.78], p = 0.006]) and pump type (HM3 vs HMII, hazard ratio 0.53 [95% confidence interval 0.30 to 0.96], p = 0.034) to be independent predictors of primary outcomes success. After adjusting for age, no significant impact of sex, race, therapeutic intent and INTERMACS profiles on primary outcomes were observed. This analysis of MOMENTUM 3 suggests that younger age (≤65 years) at implant and pump choice are associated with a greater likelihood of primary end-point success. These findings further suggest that characterization of therapeutic intent into discrete bridge-to-transplant and destination therapy categories offers no clear clinical advantage, and should ideally be abandoned. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of repeated gas sterilization on closure rates of ameroid ring constrictors in vitro.

PubMed

Kimberlin, William W; Wardlaw, Jennifer L; Madsen, Richard W

2016-01-01

To determine the effect of repeated gas sterilization on rate of closure of ameroid ring constrictors in vitro. Twenty-four 3.5-mm ameroid ring constrictors. Ameroid ring constrictors were allocated to 1 of 4 treatment groups (6/group) to undergo gas sterilization 0, 1, 5, or 10 times. After sterilization, constrictors were incubated in canine plasma at a protein concentration of 3 g/dL for 27 days. A digital camera was used to obtain images of the constrictors prior to and at various points during incubation, and lumen diameter was measured. Mean ± SD percentage of lumen closure for all groups of ameroid ring constrictors combined was 85.2 ± 1.6% at day 0 (prior to plasma incubation) and 95.4 ± 0.8% at day 27. Mean lumen area was 3.64 ± 0.43 mm(2) (95% confidence interval, 2.67 to 4.77 mm(2)) at day 0 and 1.32 ± 0.25 mm(2) (95% confidence interval, 0.76 to 2.04 mm(2)) at day 27. None of the ameroid ring constrictors had closed completely by day 27. Overall closure rates for ameroid ring constrictors appeared to be unaffected by repeated gas sterilization up to 10 times. Findings suggested that veterinary surgeons can resterilize ameroid ring constrictors up to 10 times with confidence that ring properties would remain suitable for clinical use.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence and prevalence of patellofemoral pain: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Selfe, James; Thacker, Damian; Hendrick, Paul; Bateman, Marcus; Moffatt, Fiona; Rathleff, Michael Skovdal; Smith, Toby O.; Logan, Pip

2018-01-01

Background Patellofemoral pain is considered one of the most common forms of knee pain, affecting adults, adolescents, and physically active populations. Inconsistencies in reported incidence and prevalence exist and in relation to the allocation of healthcare and research funding, there is a clear need to accurately understand the epidemiology of patellofemoral pain. Methods An electronic database search was conducted, as well as grey literature databases, from inception to June 2017. Two authors independently selected studies, extracted data and appraised methodological quality. If heterogeneous, data were analysed descriptively. Where studies were homogeneous, data were pooled through a meta-analysis. Results 23 studies were included. Annual prevalence for patellofemoral pain in the general population was reported as 22.7%, and adolescents as 28.9%. Incidence rates in military recruits ranged from 9.7–571.4/1,000 person-years, amateur runners in the general population at 1080.5/1,000 person-years and adolescents amateur athletes 5.1%–14.9% over 1 season. One study reported point prevalence within military populations as 13.5%. The pooled estimate for point prevalence in adolescents was 7.2% (95% Confidence Interval: 6.3%–8.3%), and in female only adolescent athletes was 22.7% (95% Confidence Interval 17.4%–28.0%). Conclusion This review demonstrates high incidence and prevalence levels for patellofemoral pain. Within the context of this, and poor long term prognosis and high disability levels, PFP should be an urgent research priority. PROSPERO registration CRD42016038870 PMID:29324820

RESPONSIVENESS OF THE ACTIVITIES OF DAILY LIVING SCALE OF THE KNEE OUTCOME SURVEY AND NUMERIC PAIN RATING SCALE IN PATIENTS WITH PATELLOFEMORAL PAIN

PubMed Central

Piva, Sara R.; Gil, Alexandra B.; Moore, Charity G.; Fitzgerald, G. Kelley

2016-01-01

Objective To assess internal and external responsiveness of the Activity of Daily Living Scale of the Knee Outcome Survey and Numeric Pain Rating Scale on patients with patellofemoral pain. Design One group pre-post design. Subjects A total of 60 individuals with patellofemoral pain (33 women; mean age 29.9 (standard deviation 9.6) years). Methods The Activity of Daily Living Scale and the Numeric Pain Rating Scale were assessed before and after 8 weeks of physical therapy program. Patients completed a global rating of change scale at the end of therapy. The standardized effect size, Guyatt responsiveness index, and the minimum clinical important difference were calculated. Results Standardized effect size of the Activity of Daily Living Scale was 0.63, Guyatt responsiveness index was 1.4, area under the curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.72, 0.94), and the minimum clinical important difference corresponded to an increase of 7.1 percentile points. Standardized effect size of the Numeric Pain Rating Scale was 0.72, Guyatt responsiveness index was 2.2, area under the curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.92), and the minimum clinical important difference corresponded to a decrease of 1.16 points. Conclusion Information from this study may be helpful to therapists when evaluating the effectiveness of rehabilitation intervention on physical function and pain, and to power future clinical trials on patients with patellofemoral pain. PMID:19229444

Responsiveness of the activities of daily living scale of the knee outcome survey and numeric pain rating scale in patients with patellofemoral pain.

PubMed

Piva, Sara R; Gil, Alexandra B; Moore, Charity G; Fitzgerald, G Kelley

2009-02-01

To assess internal and external responsiveness of the Activity of Daily Living Scale of the Knee Outcome Survey and Numeric Pain Rating Scale on patients with patellofemoral pain. One group pre-post design. A total of 60 individuals with patellofemoral pain (33 women; mean age 29.9 (standard deviation 9.6) years). The Activity of Daily Living Scale and the Numeric Pain Rating Scale were assessed before and after 8 weeks of physical therapy program. Patients completed a global rating of change scale at the end of therapy. The standardized effect size, Guyatt responsiveness index, and the minimum clinical important difference were calculated. Standardized effect size of the Activity of Daily Living Scale was 0.63, Guyatt responsiveness index was 1.4, area under the curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.72, 0.94), and the minimum clinical important difference corresponded to an increase of 7.1 percentile points. Standardized effect size of the Numeric Pain Rating Scale was 0.72, Guyatt responsiveness index was 2.2, area under the curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.92), and the minimum clinical important difference corresponded to a decrease of 1.16 points. Information from this study may be helpful to therapists when evaluating the effectiveness of rehabilitation intervention on physical function and pain, and to power future clinical trials on patients with patellofemoral pain.

Physical activity and obesity mediate the association between childhood motor function and adolescents’ academic achievement

PubMed Central

Kantomaa, Marko T.; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Kankaanpää, Anna; Kaakinen, Marika; Rodriguez, Alina; Taanila, Anja; Ahonen, Timo; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Tammelin, Tuija

2013-01-01

The global epidemic of obesity and physical inactivity may have detrimental implications for young people’s cognitive function and academic achievement. This prospective study investigated whether childhood motor function predicts later academic achievement via physical activity, fitness, and obesity. The study sample included 8,061 children from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986, which contains data about parent-reported motor function at age 8 y and self-reported physical activity, predicted cardiorespiratory fitness (cycle ergometer test), obesity (body weight and height), and academic achievement (grades) at age 16 y. Structural equation models with unstandardized (B) and standardized (β) coefficients were used to test whether, and to what extent, physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, and obesity at age 16 mediated the association between childhood motor function and adolescents’ academic achievement. Physical activity was associated with a higher grade-point average, and obesity was associated with a lower grade-point average in adolescence. Furthermore, compromised motor function in childhood had a negative indirect effect on adolescents’ academic achievement via physical inactivity (B = –0.023, 95% confidence interval = –0.031, –0.015) and obesity (B = –0.025, 95% confidence interval = –0.039, –0.011), but not via cardiorespiratory fitness. These results suggest that physical activity and obesity may mediate the association between childhood motor function and adolescents’ academic achievement. Compromised motor function in childhood may represent an important factor driving the effects of obesity and physical inactivity on academic underachievement. PMID:23277558

Advanced Maternal Age and the Risk of Low Birth Weight and Preterm Delivery: a Within-Family Analysis Using Finnish Population Registers

PubMed Central

Goisis, Alice; Remes, Hanna; Barclay, Kieron; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

2017-01-01

Abstract Advanced maternal age at birth is considered a major risk factor for birth outcomes. It is unclear to what extent this association is confounded by maternal characteristics. To test whether advanced maternal age at birth independently increases the risk of low birth weight (<2,500 g) and preterm birth (<37 weeks’ gestation), we compared between-family models (children born to different mothers at different ages) with within-family models (children born to the same mother at different ages). The latter procedure reduces confounding by unobserved parental characteristics that are shared by siblings. We used Finnish population registers, including 124,098 children born during 1987–2000. When compared with maternal ages 25–29 years in between-family models, maternal ages of 35–39 years and ≥40 years were associated with percentage increases of 1.1 points (95% confidence intervals: 0.8, 1.4) and 2.2 points (95% confidence intervals: 1.4, 2.9), respectively, in the probability of low birth weight. The associations are similar for the risk of preterm delivery. In within-family models, the relationship between advanced maternal age and low birth weight or preterm birth is statistically and substantively negligible. In Finland, advanced maternal age is not independently associated with the risk of low birth weight or preterm delivery among mothers who have had at least 2 live births. PMID:29206985

Digital PCR on a SlipChip.

PubMed

Shen, Feng; Du, Wenbin; Kreutz, Jason E; Fok, Alice; Ismagilov, Rustem F

2010-10-21

This paper describes a SlipChip to perform digital PCR in a very simple and inexpensive format. The fluidic path for introducing the sample combined with the PCR mixture was formed using elongated wells in the two plates of the SlipChip designed to overlap during sample loading. This fluidic path was broken up by simple slipping of the two plates that removed the overlap among wells and brought each well in contact with a reservoir preloaded with oil to generate 1280 reaction compartments (2.6 nL each) simultaneously. After thermal cycling, end-point fluorescence intensity was used to detect the presence of nucleic acid. Digital PCR on the SlipChip was tested quantitatively by using Staphylococcus aureus genomic DNA. As the concentration of the template DNA in the reaction mixture was diluted, the fraction of positive wells decreased as expected from the statistical analysis. No cross-contamination was observed during the experiments. At the extremes of the dynamic range of digital PCR the standard confidence interval determined using a normal approximation of the binomial distribution is not satisfactory. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the score method was used to establish these confidence intervals. The SlipChip provides a simple strategy to count nucleic acids by using PCR. It may find applications in research applications such as single cell analysis, prenatal diagnostics, and point-of-care diagnostics. SlipChip would become valuable for diagnostics, including applications in resource-limited areas after integration with isothermal nucleic acid amplification technologies and visual readout.

Developmental Scores at 1 Year With Increasing Gestational Age, 37–41 Weeks

PubMed Central

Rose, Olga; Blanco, Estela; Martinez, Suzanna M.; Sim, Eastern Kang; Castillo, Marcela; Lozoff, Betsy; Vaucher, Yvonne E.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between gestational age and mental and psychomotor development scores in healthy infants born between 37 and 41 weeks. METHODS: The cohort included 1562 participants enrolled during infancy in an iron deficiency anemia preventive trial in Santiago, Chile. All participants were healthy, full-term (37–41 weeks) infants who weighed 3 kg or more at birth. Development at 12 months was assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. Using generalized linear modeling, we analyzed the association between gestational age and 1-year-old developmental status, taking into account potential confounders including birth weight percentile, gender, socioeconomic status, the home environment, iron status, and iron supplementation. RESULTS: For each additional week of gestation, the Mental Development Index increased by 0.8 points (95% confidence interval = 0.2–1.4), and the Psychomotor Development Index increased by 1.4 points (95% confidence interval = 0.6–2.1) controlling for birth weight percentile, gender, socioeconomic status, and home environment. CONCLUSIONS: In a large sample of healthy full-term infants, developmental scores obtained using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 12 months increased with gestational age (37–41 weeks). There is increasing evidence that birth at 39 to 41 weeks provides developmental advantages compared with birth at 37 to 38 weeks. Because cesarean deliveries and early-term inductions have increased to 40% of all births, consideration of ongoing brain development during the full-term period is an important medical and policy issue. PMID:23589812

An evaluation of inferential procedures for adaptive clinical trial designs with pre-specified rules for modifying the sample size.

PubMed

Levin, Gregory P; Emerson, Sarah C; Emerson, Scott S

2014-09-01

Many papers have introduced adaptive clinical trial methods that allow modifications to the sample size based on interim estimates of treatment effect. There has been extensive commentary on type I error control and efficiency considerations, but little research on estimation after an adaptive hypothesis test. We evaluate the reliability and precision of different inferential procedures in the presence of an adaptive design with pre-specified rules for modifying the sampling plan. We extend group sequential orderings of the outcome space based on the stage at stopping, likelihood ratio statistic, and sample mean to the adaptive setting in order to compute median-unbiased point estimates, exact confidence intervals, and P-values uniformly distributed under the null hypothesis. The likelihood ratio ordering is found to average shorter confidence intervals and produce higher probabilities of P-values below important thresholds than alternative approaches. The bias adjusted mean demonstrates the lowest mean squared error among candidate point estimates. A conditional error-based approach in the literature has the benefit of being the only method that accommodates unplanned adaptations. We compare the performance of this and other methods in order to quantify the cost of failing to plan ahead in settings where adaptations could realistically be pre-specified at the design stage. We find the cost to be meaningful for all designs and treatment effects considered, and to be substantial for designs frequently proposed in the literature. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

The association between insulin resistance and hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C: an observational, multicenter study in Turkey.

PubMed

Dökmeci, Abdulkadir; Ustündağ, Yücel; Hulagu, Saadettin; Tuncer, Ilyas; Akdoğan, Meral; Demirsoy, Hüseyin; Köklü, Seyfettin; Güzelbulut, Fatih; Doğan, Ibrahim; Demir, Ali; Akarsu, Mesut; Yüceyar, Hakan; Ozdoğan, Osman Cavit; Ozdener, Fatih; Erdoğan, Seda

2014-10-01

To evaluate the association between insulin resistance and hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C. A total of 104 chronic hepatitis C patients were included in this non-interventional, open-label, observational, multicenter, cross-sectional study conducted at 20 gastroenterology clinics in Turkey. The primary end point was the correlation between stage of hepatic fibrosis and insulin resistance evaluated via the homeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance index. Confounders of hepatic fibrosis and insulin resistance were the secondary end points. The mean age of patients was 52.8 years; 65.4% were female. Type 2 diabetes was present in 6.8% and insulin resistance noted in 38.0% of patients. Further, 45.7% of the patients had mild (A0/A1) and the remaining had moderate/severe (A2/A3) hepatic necroinflammatory activity. Patient distribution according to Metavir fibrosis stage was as follows: F0/F1 (57.0%); F2 (6.5%); F3 (23.7%); and F4 (12.9%). A univariate analysis revealed significant positive correlations between Metavir fibrosis stage and insulin resistance (r=0.297; p=0.007). Logistic regression analysis showed that significant predictors of insulin resistance were high alanine transaminase levels (odds ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.944-0.997) and liver fibrosis stage (odds ratio, 0.114; 95% confidence interval, 0.021-0.607). Our findings revealed significant associations between insulin resistance and hepatic fibrosis.

Prospective study of robotic partial nephrectomy for renal cancer in Japan: Comparison with a historical control undergoing laparoscopic partial nephrectomy.

PubMed

Tanaka, Kazushi; Teishima, Jun; Takenaka, Atsushi; Shiroki, Ryoichi; Kobayashi, Yasuyuki; Hattori, Kazunori; Kanayama, Hiro-Omi; Horie, Shigeo; Yoshino, Yasushi; Fujisawa, Masato

2018-05-01

To evaluate the outcomes of robotic partial nephrectomy compared with those of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy for T1 renal tumors in Japanese centers. Patients with a T1 renal tumor who underwent robotic partial nephrectomy were eligible for inclusion in the present study. The primary end-point consisted of three components: a negative surgical margin, no conversion to open or laparoscopic surgery and a warm ischemia time ≤25 min. We compared data from these patients with the data from a retrospective study of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy carried out in Japan. A total of 108 patients were registered in the present study; 105 underwent robotic partial nephrectomy. The proportion of patients who met the primary end-point was 91.3% (95% confidence interval 84.1-95.9%), which was significantly higher than 23.3% in the historical data. Major complications were seen in 19 patients (18.1%). The mean change in the estimated glomerular filtration rate in the operated kidney, 180 days postoperatively, was -10.8 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (95% confidence interval -12.3-9.4%). Robotic partial nephrectomy for patients with a T1 renal tumor is a safe, feasible and more effective operative method compared with laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. It can be anticipated that robotic partial nephrectomy will become more widely used in Japan in the future. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

Physical activity and obesity mediate the association between childhood motor function and adolescents' academic achievement.

PubMed

Kantomaa, Marko T; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Kankaanpää, Anna; Kaakinen, Marika; Rodriguez, Alina; Taanila, Anja; Ahonen, Timo; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Tammelin, Tuija

2013-01-29

The global epidemic of obesity and physical inactivity may have detrimental implications for young people's cognitive function and academic achievement. This prospective study investigated whether childhood motor function predicts later academic achievement via physical activity, fitness, and obesity. The study sample included 8,061 children from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986, which contains data about parent-reported motor function at age 8 y and self-reported physical activity, predicted cardiorespiratory fitness (cycle ergometer test), obesity (body weight and height), and academic achievement (grades) at age 16 y. Structural equation models with unstandardized (B) and standardized (β) coefficients were used to test whether, and to what extent, physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, and obesity at age 16 mediated the association between childhood motor function and adolescents' academic achievement. Physical activity was associated with a higher grade-point average, and obesity was associated with a lower grade-point average in adolescence. Furthermore, compromised motor function in childhood had a negative indirect effect on adolescents' academic achievement via physical inactivity (B = -0.023, 95% confidence interval = -0.031, -0.015) and obesity (B = -0.025, 95% confidence interval = -0.039, -0.011), but not via cardiorespiratory fitness. These results suggest that physical activity and obesity may mediate the association between childhood motor function and adolescents' academic achievement. Compromised motor function in childhood may represent an important factor driving the effects of obesity and physical inactivity on academic underachievement.

Myocardial Injury in Patients With Sepsis and Its Association With Long-Term Outcome.

PubMed

Frencken, Jos F; Donker, Dirk W; Spitoni, Cristian; Koster-Brouwer, Marlies E; Soliman, Ivo W; Ong, David S Y; Horn, Janneke; van der Poll, Tom; van Klei, Wilton A; Bonten, Marc J M; Cremer, Olaf L

2018-02-01

Sepsis is frequently complicated by the release of cardiac troponin, but the clinical significance of this myocardial injury remains unclear. We studied the associations between troponin release during sepsis and 1-year outcomes. We enrolled consecutive patients with sepsis in 2 Dutch intensive care units between 2011 and 2013. Subjects with a clinically apparent cause of troponin release were excluded. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentration in plasma was measured daily during the first 4 intensive care unit days, and multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to model its association with 1-year mortality while adjusting for confounding. In addition, we studied cardiovascular morbidity occurring during the first year after hospital discharge. Among 1258 patients presenting with sepsis, 1124 (89%) were eligible for study inclusion. Hs-cTnI concentrations were elevated in 673 (60%) subjects on day 1, and 755 (67%) ever had elevated levels in the first 4 days. Cox regression analysis revealed that high hs-cTnI concentrations were associated with increased death rates during the first 14 days (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.59 and hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.62 for hs-cTnI concentrations of 100-500 and >500 ng/L, respectively) but not thereafter. Furthermore, elevated hs-cTnI levels were associated with the development of cardiovascular disease among 200 hospital survivors who were analyzed for this end point (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.50). Myocardial injury occurs in the majority of patients with sepsis and is independently associated with early-but not late-mortality, as well as postdischarge cardiovascular morbidity. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Time to brain imaging in acute stroke is improving: secondary analysis of the INSTINCT trial.

PubMed

Sauser, Kori; Burke, James F; Levine, Deborah A; Scott, Phillip A; Meurer, William J

2014-01-01

Patients with acute ischemic stroke benefit from rapid evaluation and treatment, and timely brain imaging is a necessary component. We determined the effect of a targeted behavioral intervention on door-to-imaging time (DIT) among patients with ischemic stroke treated with tissue-type plasminogen activator. Second, we examined the variation in DIT accounted for by patient-level and hospital-level factors. The Increasing Stroke Treatment through Interventional behavioral Change Tactics (INSTINCT) trial was a cluster-randomized, controlled trial involving 24 Michigan hospitals. The intervention aimed to increase tissue-type plasminogen activator utilization. Detailed chart abstractions collected data for 557 patients with ischemic stroke. We used a series of hierarchical linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the effect of the intervention on DIT (difference-in-differences analysis) and used patient-level and hospital-level explanatory variables to decompose variation in DIT. DIT improved over time, without a difference between intervention and control hospitals (intervention: 23.7-19.3 minutes, control: 28.9-19.2 minutes; P=0.56). Adjusted DIT was faster in patients who arrived by ambulance (7.2 minutes; 95% confidence interval, 4.1-10.2), had severe strokes (1.0 minute per +5-point National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-2.0), and presented in the postintervention period (4.9 minutes; 95% confidence interval, 2.3-7.4). After accounting for these factors, 13.8% of variation in DIT was attributable to hospital. Neither hospital stroke volume nor stroke center status was associated with DIT. Performance on DIT improved similarly in intervention and control hospitals, suggesting that nonintervention factors explain the improvement. Hospital-level factors explain a modest proportion of variation in DIT, but further research is needed to identify the hospital-level factors responsible.

Sex Differences in Mortality Based on United Network for Organ Sharing Status While Awaiting Heart Transplantation.

PubMed

Hsich, Eileen M; Blackstone, Eugene H; Thuita, Lucy; McNamara, Dennis M; Rogers, Joseph G; Ishwaran, Hemant; Schold, Jesse D

2017-06-01

There are sex differences in mortality while awaiting heart transplantation, and the reason remains unclear. We included all adults in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients placed on the heart transplant active waitlist from 2004 to 2015. The primary end point was all-cause mortality. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate survival by United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) status at the time of listing. Random survival forest was used to identify sex interactions for the competing risk of death and transplantation. There were 33 069 patients (25% women) awaiting heart transplantation. This cohort included 7681 UNOS status 1A (26% women), 13 027 UNOS status 1B (25% women), and 12 361 UNOS status 2 (26% women). During a median follow-up of 4.3 months, 1351 women and 4052 men died. After adjusting for >20 risk factors, female sex was associated with a significant risk of death among UNOS status 1A (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.29) and UNOS status 1B (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.30). In contrast, female sex was significantly protective for time to death among UNOS status 2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.95). Sex differences in probability of transplantation were present for every UNOS status, and >20 sex interactions were identified for mortality and transplantation. When stratified by initial UNOS status, women had a higher mortality than men as UNOS status 1 and a lower mortality as UNOS status 2. With >20 sex interactions for mortality and transplantation, further evaluation is warranted to form a more equitable allocation system. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Propensity Score Analysis Comparing Videothoracoscopic Lobectomy With Thoracotomy: A French Nationwide Study.

PubMed

Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Delpy, Jean-Philippe; Orsini, Bastien; Gossot, Dominique; Baste, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Pascal; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

2016-04-01

Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy has recently become the recommended approach for stage I non-small cell lung cancer. However, these guidelines are not based on any large randomized control trial. Our study used propensity scores and a sensitivity analysis to compare VATS lobectomy with open thoracotomy. From 2005 to 2012, 24,811 patients (95.1%) were operated on by open thoracotomy and 1,278 (4.9%) by VATS. The end points were 30-day postoperative death, postoperative complications, hospital stay, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Two propensity scores analyses were performed: matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting, and one sensitivity analysis to unmask potential hidden bias. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare "high-risk" with "low-risk" patients. Results are reported by odds ratios or hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Postoperative death was not significantly reduced by VATS whatever the analysis. Concerning postoperative complications, VATS significantly decreased the occurrence of atelectasis and pneumopathy with both analysis methods, but there were no differences in the occurrence of other postoperative complications. VATS did not provide a benefit for high-risk patients. The VATS approach decreased the hospital length of stay from 2.4 days (95% confidence interval, -1.7 to -3 days) to -4.68 days (95% confidence interval, -8.5 to 0.9 days). Overall survival and disease-free survival were not influenced by the surgical approach. The sensitivity analysis showed potential biases. The results must be interpreted carefully because of the differences observed according to the propensity scores method used. A multicenter randomized controlled trial is necessary to limit the biases. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incidence of skin tears in the extremities among elderly patients at a long-term medical facility in Japan: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Sanada, Hiromi; Nakagami, Gojiro; Koyano, Yuiko; Iizaka, Shinji; Sugama, Junko

2015-08-01

There is a lack of data from cohort studies for the incidence of skin tears among an elderly population in an Asian country. We estimated the cumulative incidence of skin tear, and identify its risk factor. The present prospective cohort study was carried out at a long-term medical facility in Japan. Participants included patients (n = 368) aged 65 years or older receiving hospital care. The 3-month cumulative incidence of skin tears was estimated by identifying them using direct inspection of the extremities. In order to find the risk factors for the skin tear incidence, odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals of skin tear development in association with the factors were estimated using logistic regression analyses. A total of 14 patients developed skin tears, and their cumulative incidence was 3.8%. No patients with skin tears developed multiple wounds on their extremities. Half of the skin tears occurred on the outside of the right forearm, and just three skin tears were found in the lower legs. Multiple logistic analyses showed that pre-existing skin tears (odds ratio 15.42, 95% confidence interval 3.53-67.43, P < 0.001) and a 6-point decrease in the total score of the Braden Scale (odds ratio 0.10, 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.83, P < 0.033) were significantly associated with skin tear development. Patients with pre-existing skin tears and a low score of the Braden Scale have a higher risk of skin tear development during 3 months. These factors could be used to identify patients requiring prevention care for skin tears. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Prognostic utility of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Wang, Thomas J; Wollert, Kai C; Larson, Martin G; Coglianese, Erin; McCabe, Elizabeth L; Cheng, Susan; Ho, Jennifer E; Fradley, Michael G; Ghorbani, Anahita; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Kempf, Tibor; Benjamin, Emelia J; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Januzzi, James L

2012-09-25

Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3428 participants (mean age, 59 years; 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a "multimarker" score composed of the 3 biomarkers in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each end point (P<0.001) except coronary events. Individuals with multimarker scores in the highest quartile had a 3-fold risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-4.7; P<0.001), 6-fold risk of heart failure (6.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-14.8; P<0.001), and 2-fold risk of cardiovascular events (1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.7; P=0.001). Addition of the multimarker score to clinical variables led to significant increases in the c statistic (P=0.005 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (P=0.001 or lower). Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure.

Effects of active and passive smoking on the development of cardiovascular disease as assessed by a carotid intima-media thickness examination in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Jiang, Fei; Wang, Jie; Zhang, Rong; Chen, Miao; Peng, Danfeng; Sun, Xue; Yan, Jing; Luo, Yi; Tang, Shanshan; Hu, Cheng; Jia, Weiping

2015-05-01

Carotid intima-media thickness has been widely used as a surrogate end-point for cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke. This study aimed to assess the effects of active and passive smoking exposure on the development of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Seven hundred twenty-two patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus were recruited for the study. A standardized questionnaire on smoking status, pack-years of smoking, and the number of years of smoking cessation was provided to the patients, and their responses were collected for analysis. The carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and the internal diameter of the common carotid artery were determined by high-resolution B-mode ultrasonography. Compared to non-smokers, passive female smokers had a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (odds ratio = 3.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.29-9.49, P = 0.009); they also had a significantly larger common carotid artery (P = 0.041) and risk of carotid plaque (odds ratio = 2.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.1980-4.0505, P = 0.01). Both active and passive male smokers had a significantly greater carotid intima-media thickness than non-smokers (P = 0.003 and P = 0.005, respectively). Male active smokers had a significantly higher risk of carotid plaque (odds ratio = 2.88, 95% confidence interval: 1.4788-5.6094, P = 0.001). In conclusion, cumulative active and passive smoking exposures are significant risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Our results highlight the importance of endorsing a smoke-free environment for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Ticagrelor Versus Aspirin in Acute Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

PubMed

Amarenco, Pierre; Albers, Gregory W; Denison, Hans; Easton, J Donald; Evans, Scott R; Held, Peter; Hill, Michael D; Jonasson, Jenny; Kasner, Scott E; Ladenvall, Per; Minematsu, Kazuo; Molina, Carlos A; Wang, Yongjun; Wong, K S Lawrence; Johnston, S Claiborne

2017-09-01

Ticagrelor is an effective antiplatelet therapy among patients with atherosclerotic disease and, therefore, could be more effective than aspirin in preventing recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events among patients with embolic stroke of unknown source (ESUS), which includes patients with ipsilateral stenosis <50% and aortic arch atherosclerosis. We randomized 13 199 patients with a noncardioembolic, nonsevere ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack to ticagrelor (180 mg loading dose on day 1 followed by 90 mg twice daily for days 2-90) or aspirin (300 mg on day 1 followed by 100 mg daily for days 2-90) within 24 hours of symptom onset. In all patients, investigators informed on the presence of ipsilateral stenosis ≥50%, small deep infarct <15 mm, and on cardiac source of embolism detected after enrollment or rare causes, which allowed to construct an ESUS category in all other patients with documented brain infarction. The primary end point was the time to the occurrence of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death within 90 days. ESUS was identified in 4329 (32.8%) patients. There was no treatment-by-ESUS category interaction ( P =0.83). Hazard ratio in ESUS patients was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.10; P =0.24). However, hazard ratio was 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.90; P =0.02) in ESUS patients with ipsilateral stenosis <50% or aortic arch atherosclerosis (n=961) and 0.98 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.27; P =0.89) in the remaining ESUS patients (n=3368; P for heterogeneity =0.04). In this post hoc, exploratory analysis, we found no treatment-by-ESUS category interaction. ESUS subgroups have heterogeneous response to treatment (Funded by AstraZeneca). URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01994720. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Post-nuclear disaster evacuation and survival amongst elderly people in Fukushima: A comparative analysis between evacuees and non-evacuees.

PubMed

Nomura, Shuhei; Blangiardo, Marta; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nishikawa, Yoshitaka; Gilmour, Stuart; Kami, Masahiro; Hodgson, Susan

2016-01-01

Considering the health impacts of evacuation is fundamental to disaster planning especially for vulnerable elderly populations; however, evacuation-related mortality risks have not been well-investigated. We conducted an analysis to compare survival of evacuated and non-evacuated residents of elderly care facilities, following the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant incident on 11th March 2011. To assess associations between evacuation and mortality after the Fukushima nuclear incident; and to present discussion points on disaster planning, with reference to vulnerable elderly populations. The study population comprised 1,215 residents admitted to seven elderly care facilities located 20-40km from the nuclear plant in the five years before the incident. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained from medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until mid 2013. Main outcome measures are hazard ratios in evacuees versus non-evacuees using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models, and pre- and post-disaster survival probabilities and relative mortality incidence. Experiencing the disasters did not have a significant influence on mortality (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.43). Evacuation was associated with 1.82 times higher mortality (95% confidence interval: 1.22-2.70) after adjusting for confounders, with the initial evacuation from the original facility associated with 3.37 times higher mortality risk (95% confidence interval: 1.66-6.81) than non evacuation. The government should consider updating its requirements for emergency planning for elderly facilities and ensure that, in a disaster setting, these facilities have the capacity and support to shelter in place for at least sufficient time to adequately prepare initial evacuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for intracranial hemorrhage in acute ischemic stroke patients treated with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 studies.

PubMed

Whiteley, William N; Slot, Karsten Bruins; Fernandes, Peter; Sandercock, Peter; Wardlaw, Joanna

2012-11-01

Recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) is an effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke but is associated with an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). We sought to identify the risk factors for ICH with a systematic review of the published literature. We searched for studies of rtPA-treated stroke patients that reported an association between a variable measured before rtPA infusion and clinically important ICH (parenchymal ICH or ICH associated with clinical deterioration). We calculated associations between baseline variables and ICH with random-effect meta-analyses. We identified 55 studies that measured 43 baseline variables in 65 264 acute ischemic stroke patients. Post-rtPA ICH was associated with higher age (odds ratio, 1.03 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.04), higher stroke severity (odds ratio, 1.08 per National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale point; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.11), and higher glucose (odds ratio, 1.10 per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.14). There was approximately a doubling of the odds of ICH with the presence of atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, renal impairment, previous antiplatelet agents, leukoaraiosis, and a visible acute cerebral ischemic lesion on pretreatment brain imaging. Little of the variation in the sizes of the associations among different studies was explained by the source of the cohort, definition of ICH, or degree of adjustment for confounding variables. Individual baseline variables were modestly associated with post-rtPA ICH. Prediction of post-rtPA ICH therefore is likely to be difficult if based on single clinical or imaging factors alone. These observational data do not provide a reliable method for the individualization of treatment according to predicted ICH risk.

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

Estimated preejection period (PEP) based on the detection of the R-wave and dZ/dt-min peaks in ECG and ICG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lien, René; Schutte, Nienke M.; Meijer, Jan H.; de Geus, Eco J. C.

2013-04-01

The validity of estimating the PEP from a fixed value for the Q-wave onset to the R-wave peak (QR) interval and from the R-wave peak to the dZ/dt-min peak (ISTI) interval is evaluated. Ninety-one subjects participated in a laboratory experiment in which a variety of physical and mental stressors were presented and 31 further subjects participated in a sequence of structured ambulatory activities in which large variation in posture and physical activity was induced. PEP, QR interval, and ISTI were scored. Across the diverse laboratory and ambulatory conditions the QR interval could be approximated by a fixed interval of 40 ms but 95% confidence intervals were large (25 to 54 ms). Multilevel analysis showed that 79% to 81% of the within and between-subject variation in the RB interval could be predicted by the ISTI. However, the optimal intercept and slope values varied significantly across subjects and study setting. Bland-Altman plots revealed a large discrepancy between the estimated PEP and the actual PEP based on the Q-wave onset and B-point. It is concluded that the estimated PEP can be a useful tool but cannot replace the actual PEP to index cardiac sympathetic control.

Prospective Study of Insufficient Sleep and Neurobehavioral Functioning Among School-Age Children.

PubMed

Taveras, Elsie M; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Bub, Kristen L; Gillman, Matthew W; Oken, Emily

2017-08-01

To examine associations between insufficient sleep and neurobehavioral functioning in childhood as reported by mothers and teachers. Participants were 1046 children in a prebirth cohort study. Main exposures were insufficient sleep durations at 3 time points: 6 months to 2 years, defined as sleep <11 h/d, 11 to <12 h/d (vs ≥12); 3 to 4 years, defined as sleep <10 h/d, 10 to <11 h/d (vs ≥11); and 5 to 7 years, sleep <9 h/d, 9 to <10 h/d (vs ≥10). Outcomes at age 7 years were executive function, behavior, and social-emotional functioning, assessed using the Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Higher scores indicate poorer functioning. Mothers and teachers completed both instruments independently. At age 7 years, mean (SD) mother and teacher report of the BRIEF global executive composite scale were 48.3 (7.9) and 50.7 (9.4) points, respectively, and of the SDQ total difficulties score was 6.5 (4.7) and 6.2 (5.7). In multivariable models, children who slept <10 h/d at 3 to 4 years had worse maternal-reported scores for the BRIEF (2.11 points; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-4.05) and SDQ (1.91 points; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-3.05) than those with age-appropriate sleep. Children who slept <9 h/d at 5 to 7 years also had worse scores. At both ages, associations with teacher-reported results were consistent with those of mothers. Infants who slept 11 to <12 h/d had higher teacher- but not mother-reported scores. Insufficient sleep in the preschool and early school years is associated with poorer mother- and teacher-reported neurobehavioral processes in midchildhood. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Short-Term Effects of Thoracic Spine Manipulation on Shoulder Impingement Syndrome: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Haik, Melina N; Alburquerque-Sendín, Francisco; Camargo, Paula R

2017-08-01

To investigate the short-term effects of thoracic spine manipulation (TSM) on pain, function, scapular kinematics, and scapular muscle activity in individuals with shoulder impingement syndrome. Randomized controlled trial with blinded assessor and patient. Laboratory. Patients with shoulder impingement syndrome (N=61). Participants were randomly allocated to TSM group (n=30) or sham-TSM group (n=31) and attended 2 intervention sessions over a 1-week period. Scapular kinematics and muscle activity were measured at day 1 (baseline, before the first intervention), day 2 preintervention (before second intervention), day 2 postintervention (after the second intervention), and day 3 (follow-up). Shoulder pain and function were assessed by the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire and Western Ontario Rotator Cuff Index at baseline, day 2 preintervention, and follow-up. An assessor blinded to group assignment measured all outcomes. Pain decreased by 0.7 points (95% confidence interval, 1.3-0.1 points) at day 2 preintervention and 0.9 points (95% confidence interval, 1.5-0.3 points) at day 2 postintervention in the TSM group. The Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (P=.01) and Western Ontario Rotator Cuff Index (P=.02) scores improved in both groups. Scapular upward rotation increased during arm lowering (P<.01) at day 2 postintervention (5.3°) and follow-up (3.5°) in the TSM group. Upper trapezius activity increased (P<.05) in the sham-TSM group. Middle trapezius, lower trapezius, and serratus anterior decreased activities in both groups during elevation and lowering of the arm. TSM may increase scapular upward rotation during arm lowering. TSM does not seem to influence activity of the scapular muscles. The results concerning shoulder pain, function, scapular tilt, and internal rotation are not conclusive. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of cardiovascular outcome by estimated glomerular filtration rate and estimated creatinine clearance in the high-risk hypertension population of the VALUE trial.

PubMed

Ruilope, Luis M; Zanchetti, Alberto; Julius, Stevo; McInnes, Gordon T; Segura, Julian; Stolt, Pelle; Hua, Tsushung A; Weber, Michael A; Jamerson, Ken

2007-07-01

Reduced renal function is predictive of poor cardiovascular outcomes but the predictive value of different measures of renal function is uncertain. We compared the value of estimated creatinine clearance, using the Cockcroft-Gault formula, with that of estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR), using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula, as predictors of cardiovascular outcome in 15 245 high-risk hypertensive participants in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial. For the primary end-point, the three secondary end-points and for all-cause death, outcomes were compared for individuals with baseline estimated creatinine clearance and estimated GFR < 60 ml/min and > or = 60 ml/min using hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, age, sex and treatment effects were included as covariates in the model. For each end-point considered, the risk in individuals with poor renal function at baseline was greater than in those with better renal function. Estimated creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) was significantly predictive only of all-cause death [hazard ratio = 1.223, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.076-1.390; P = 0.0021] whereas estimated GFR was predictive of all outcomes except stroke. Hazard ratios (95% CIs) for estimated GFR were: primary cardiac end-point, 1.497 (1.332-1.682), P < 0.0001; myocardial infarction, 1.501 (1.254-1.796), P < 0.0001; congestive heart failure, 1.699 (1.435-2.013), P < 0.0001; stroke, 1.152 (0.952-1.394) P = 0.1452; and all-cause death, 1.231 (1.098-1.380), P = 0.0004. These results indicate that estimated glomerular filtration rate calculated with the MDRD formula is more informative than estimated creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) in the prediction of cardiovascular outcomes.

Fibrin-Targeted Magnetic Resonance Imaging Allows In Vivo Quantification of Thrombus Fibrin Content and Identifies Thrombi Amenable for Thrombolysis

PubMed Central

Jenkins, Julia; Modarai, Bijan; Wiethoff, Andrea J.; Phinikaridou, Alkystis; Grover, Steven P.; Patel, Ashish S.; Schaeffter, Tobias; Smith, Alberto; Botnar, Rene M.

2014-01-01

Objective Deep venous thrombosis is a major health problem. Thrombolytic therapies are effective in recanalizing the veins and preventing post-thrombotic complications, but there is no consensus on selection criteria. The aim of this study was to investigate a fibrin-specific MRI contrast agent (EP-2104R) for the accurate quantification of thrombus’ fibrin content in vivo and for the identification of thrombus suitable for thrombolysis. Approach and Results Venous thrombosis was induced in the inferior vena cava of 8- to 10-week-old male BALB/C mice and MRI performed 2, 4, 7, 10, 14, and 21 days later. Eighteen mice were scanned at each time point pre and 2 hours post injection of EP-2104R (8.0 μmol/kg) with 12 mice at each time point used to correlate fibrin contrast uptake with thrombus’ histological stage and fibrin content. Six mice at each time point were immediately subjected to intravascular thrombolytic therapy (10 mg/kg of tissue-type plasminogen activator). Mice were imaged to assess response to lytic therapy 24 hours after thrombolytic treatment. Two mice at each time point were scanned post injection of 0.2 mmol/kg of Gd-DTPA (gadolinium with diethylenetriaminepentacetate, Magnevist, Schering AG, Berlin, Germany) for control purpose. Contrast uptake was correlated positively with the fibrin content of the thrombus measured by Western blotting (R2=0.889; P<0.001). Thrombus relaxation rate (R1) post contrast and the change in visualized thrombus size on late gadolinium enhancement inversion recovery MRI pre–EP-2104R and post–EP-2104R injection were the best predictors for successful thrombolysis (area under the curve, 0.989 [95% confidence interval, 0.97–1.00] and 0.994 [95% confidence interval, 0.98–1.00] respectively). Conclusions MRI with a fibrin-specific contrast agent accurately estimates thrombus fibrin content in vivo and identifies thrombi that are amenable for thrombolysis. PMID:24723557

Comparison of High-Flexion Fixed-Bearing and High-Flexion Mobile-Bearing Total Knee Arthroplasties-A Prospective Randomized Study.

PubMed

Kim, Young-Hoo; Park, Jang-Won; Kim, Jun-Shik

2018-01-01

There is none, to our knowledge, about comparison of high-flexion fixed-bearing and high-flexion mobile-bearing total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) in the same patients. The purpose of this study was to determine whether clinical results; radiographic and computed tomographic scan results; and the survival rate of a high-flexion mobile-bearing TKA is better than that of a high-flexion fixed-bearing TKA. The present study consisted of 92 patients (184 knees) who underwent same-day bilateral TKA. Of those, 17 were men and 75 were women. The mean age at the time of index arthroplasty was 61.5 ± 8.3 years (range 52-65 years). The mean body mass index was 26.2 ± 3.3 kg/m 2 (range 23-34 kg/m 2 ). The mean follow-up was 11.2 years (range 10-12 years). The Knee Society knee scores (93 vs 92 points; P = .531) and function scores (80 vs 80 points; P = 1.000), WOMAC scores (14 vs 15 points; P = .972), and UCLA activity scores (6 vs 6 points; P = 1.000) were not different between the 2 groups at 12 years follow-up. There were no differences in any radiographic and CT scan parameters between the 2 groups. Kaplan-Meier survivorship of the TKA component was 98% (95% confidence interval, 93-100) in the high-flexion fixed-bearing TKA group and 99% (95% confidence interval, 94-100) in the high-flexion mobile-bearing TKA group 12 years after the operation. We found no benefit to mobile-bearing TKA in terms of pain, function, radiographic and CT scan results, and survivorship. Longer-term follow-up is necessary to prove the benefit of the high-flexion mobile-bearing TKA over the high-flexion fixed-bearing TKA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of dual antiplatelet therapy on outcomes among aspirin-resistant patients following coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Gasparovic, Hrvoje; Petricevic, Mate; Kopjar, Tomislav; Djuric, Zeljko; Svetina, Lucija; Biocina, Bojan

2014-05-15

Coronary artery bypass grafting is pivotal in the contemporary management of complex coronary artery disease. Interpatient variability to antiplatelet agents, however, harbors the potential to compromise the revascularization benefit by increasing the incidence of adverse events. This study was designed to define the impact of dual antiplatelet therapy (dAPT) on clinical outcomes among aspirin-resistant patients who underwent coronary artery surgery. We randomly assigned 219 aspirin-resistant patients according to multiple electrode aggregometry to receive clopidogrel (75 mg) plus aspirin (300 mg) or aspirin-monotherapy (300 mg). The primary end point was a composite outcome of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular hospitalization assessed at 6 months postoperatively. The primary end point occurred in 6% of patients assigned to dAPT and 10% of patients randomized to aspirin-monotherapy (relative risk 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.25 to 1.51, p = 0.33). No significant treatment effect was noted in the occurrence of the safety end point. The total incidence of bleeding events was 25% and 19% in the dAPT and aspirin-monotherapy groups, respectively (relative risk 1.34, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 2.23, p = 0.33). In the subgroup analysis, dAPT led to lower rates of adverse events in patients with a body mass index >30 kg/m(2) (0% vs 18%, p <0.01) and those <65 years (0% vs 10%, p = 0.02). In conclusion, the addition of clopidogrel in patients found to be aspirin resistant after coronary artery bypass grafting did not reduce the incidence of adverse events, nor did it increase the number of recorded bleeding events. dAPT did, however, lower the incidence of the primary end point in obese patients and those <65 years. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improvement of pain-related self-management for cancer patients through a modular transitional nursing intervention: a cluster-randomized multicenter trial.

PubMed

Jahn, Patrick; Kuss, Oliver; Schmidt, Heike; Bauer, Alexander; Kitzmantel, Maria; Jordan, Karin; Krasemann, Susann; Landenberger, Margarete

2014-04-01

Patients' self-management skills are affected by their knowledge, activities, and attitudes toward pain management. This trial aimed to test the Self Care Improvement through Oncology Nursing (SCION)-PAIN program, a multimodular structured intervention to reduce patients' barriers to self-management of cancer pain. Two hundred sixty-three patients with diagnosed malignancy, pain>3 days, and average pain > or = 3/10 participated in a cluster-randomized trial on 18 wards in 2 German university hospitals. Patients on the intervention wards received, in addition to standard pain treatment, the SCION-PAIN program consisting of 3 modules: pharmacologic, nonpharmacologic pain management, and discharge management. The intervention was conducted by specially trained cancer nurses and included components of patient education, skills training, and counseling. Starting with admission, patients received booster sessions every third day and one follow-up telephone counseling session within 2 to 3 days after discharge. Patients in the control group received standard care. Primary end point was the group difference in patient-related barriers to self-management of cancer pain (Barriers Questionnaire-BQ II) 7 days after discharge. The SCION-PAIN program resulted in a significant reduction of patient-related barriers to pain management 1 week after discharge from the hospital: mean difference on BQ II was -0.49 points (95% confidence interval -0.87 points to -0.12 points; P=0.02). Furthermore, patients showed improved adherence to pain medication; odds ratio 8.58 (95% confidence interval 1.66-44.40; P=0.02). A post hoc analysis indicated reduced average and worst pain intensity as well as improved quality of life. This trial reveals the positive impact of a nursing intervention to improve patients' self-management of cancer pain. Copyright © 2014 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meta-Analysis of Cell-based CaRdiac stUdiEs (ACCRUE) in patients with acute myocardial infarction based on individual patient data.

PubMed

Gyöngyösi, Mariann; Wojakowski, Wojciech; Lemarchand, Patricia; Lunde, Ketil; Tendera, Michal; Bartunek, Jozef; Marban, Eduardo; Assmus, Birgit; Henry, Timothy D; Traverse, Jay H; Moyé, Lemuel A; Sürder, Daniel; Corti, Roberto; Huikuri, Heikki; Miettinen, Johanna; Wöhrle, Jochen; Obradovic, Slobodan; Roncalli, Jérome; Malliaras, Konstantinos; Pokushalov, Evgeny; Romanov, Alexander; Kastrup, Jens; Bergmann, Martin W; Atsma, Douwe E; Diederichsen, Axel; Edes, Istvan; Benedek, Imre; Benedek, Theodora; Pejkov, Hristo; Nyolczas, Noemi; Pavo, Noemi; Bergler-Klein, Jutta; Pavo, Imre J; Sylven, Christer; Berti, Sergio; Navarese, Eliano P; Maurer, Gerald

2015-04-10

The meta-Analysis of Cell-based CaRdiac study is the first prospectively declared collaborative multinational database, including individual data of patients with ischemic heart disease treated with cell therapy. We analyzed the safety and efficacy of intracoronary cell therapy after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), including individual patient data from 12 randomized trials (ASTAMI, Aalst, BOOST, BONAMI, CADUCEUS, FINCELL, REGENT, REPAIR-AMI, SCAMI, SWISS-AMI, TIME, LATE-TIME; n=1252). The primary end point was freedom from combined major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (including all-cause death, AMI recurrance, stroke, and target vessel revascularization). The secondary end point was freedom from hard clinical end points (death, AMI recurrence, or stroke), assessed with random-effects meta-analyses and Cox regressions for interactions. Secondary efficacy end points included changes in end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and ejection fraction, analyzed with random-effects meta-analyses and ANCOVA. We reported weighted mean differences between cell therapy and control groups. No effect of cell therapy on major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (14.0% versus 16.3%; hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.18) or death (1.4% versus 2.1%) or death/AMI recurrence/stroke (2.9% versus 4.7%) was identified in comparison with controls. No changes in ejection fraction (mean difference: 0.96%; 95% confidence interval, -0.2 to 2.1), end-diastolic volume, or systolic volume were observed compared with controls. These results were not influenced by anterior AMI location, reduced baseline ejection fraction, or the use of MRI for assessing left ventricular parameters. This meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomized trials in patients with recent AMI revealed that intracoronary cell therapy provided no benefit, in terms of clinical events or changes in left ventricular function. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01098591. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Etiological classifications of transient ischemic attacks: subtype classification by TOAST, CCS and ASCO--a pilot study.

PubMed

Amort, Margareth; Fluri, Felix; Weisskopf, Florian; Gensicke, Henrik; Bonati, Leo H; Lyrer, Philippe A; Engelter, Stefan T

2012-01-01

In patients with transient ischemic attacks (TIA), etiological classification systems are not well studied. The Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), the Causative Classification System (CCS), and the Atherosclerosis Small Vessel Disease Cardiac Source Other Cause (ASCO) classification may be useful to determine the underlying etiology. We aimed at testing the feasibility of each of the 3 systems. Furthermore, we studied and compared their prognostic usefulness. In a single-center TIA registry prospectively ascertained over 2 years, we applied 3 etiological classification systems. We compared the distribution of underlying etiologies, the rates of patients with determined versus undetermined etiology, and studied whether etiological subtyping distinguished TIA patients with versus without subsequent stroke or TIA within 3 months. The 3 systems were applicable in all 248 patients. A determined etiology with the highest level of causality was assigned similarly often with TOAST (35.9%), CCS (34.3%), and ASCO (38.7%). However, the frequency of undetermined causes differed significantly between the classification systems and was lowest for ASCO (TOAST: 46.4%; CCS: 37.5%; ASCO: 18.5%; p < 0.001). In TOAST, CCS, and ASCO, cardioembolism (19.4/14.5/18.5%) was the most common etiology, followed by atherosclerosis (11.7/12.9/14.5%). At 3 months, 33 patients (13.3%, 95% confidence interval 9.3-18.2%) had recurrent cerebral ischemic events. These were strokes in 13 patients (5.2%; 95% confidence interval 2.8-8.8%) and TIAs in 20 patients (8.1%, 95% confidence interval 5.0-12.2%). Patients with a determined etiology (high level of causality) had higher rates of subsequent strokes than those without a determined etiology [TOAST: 6.7% (95% confidence interval 2.5-14.1%) vs. 4.4% (95% confidence interval 1.8-8.9%); CSS: 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.1-17.5%) vs. 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0-7.1%); ASCO: 9.4% (95% confidence interval 4.4-17.1%) vs. 2.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7-6.6%)]. However, this difference was only significant in the ASCO classification (p = 0.036). Using ASCO, there was neither an increase in risk of subsequent stroke among patients with incomplete diagnostic workup (at least one subtype scored 9) compared with patients with adequate workup (no subtype scored 9), nor among patients with multiple causes compared with patients with a single cause. In TIA patients, all etiological classification systems provided a similar distribution of underlying etiologies. The increase in stroke risk in TIA patients with determined versus undetermined etiology was most evident using the ASCO classification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Access, continuity of care and consultation quality: which best predicts urgent cancer referrals from general practice?

PubMed

Rogers, Stephen; Gildea, Carolynn; Meechan, David; Baker, Richard

2014-12-01

For some cancers, late presentation is associated with poor survival. In England, less than half of patients are diagnosed following a general practitioner-initiated urgent referral. We explore whether particular practice or practitioner characteristics are associated with use of the urgent referral system. The study sample was 603/614 practices in the East Midlands. Logistic regression models were fitted to investigate relationships between cancer detection rate, how easy it is to book appointments quickly, in advance or with a preferred doctor, and whether patients have confidence and trust in the doctor. The percentage of patients who definitely have confidence and trust in the doctor was positively associated with the cancer detection rate [odds ratio = 1.08 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01, 1.15) per 10 percentage points]. When all four survey variables were modelled together, the percentage of patients who were able to see a preferred doctor was negatively associated with the cancer detection rate [odds ratio = 0.93 (95% CI 0.88, 0.98) per 10 percentage points]. Our analyses suggest that in the UK National Health Service, confidence and trust in the doctor may be more important in cancer detection than the ease of access or whether there is choice of doctor. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Lower hospital mortality and complications after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Bratton, Susan L; Van Duker, Heather; Statler, Kimberly D; Pulsipher, Michael A; McArthur, Jennifer; Keenan, Heather T

2008-03-01

To assess protective and risk factors for mortality among pediatric patients during initial care after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and to evaluate changes in hospital mortality. Retrospective cohort using the 1997, 2000, and 2003 Kids Inpatient Database, a probabilistic sample of children hospitalized in the United States with a procedure code for HSCT. Hospitalized patients in the United States submitted to the database. Age, <19 yrs. None. Hospital mortality significantly decreased from 12% in 1997 to 6% in 2003. Source of stem cells changed with increased use of cord blood. Rates of sepsis, graft versus host disease, and mechanical ventilation significantly decreased. Compared with autologous HSCT, patients who received an allogenic HSCT without T-cell depletion were more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.9), while children who received cord blood HSCT were at the greatest risk of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.6, 9.1). Mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 26.32; 95% confidence interval, 16.3-42.2), dialysis (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-35.4), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-6.1) were all independently associated with death, while care in 2003 was associated with decreased risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.7) of death. Hospital mortality after HSCT in children decreased over time as did complications including need for mechanical ventilation, graft versus host disease, and sepsis. Prevention of complications is essential as the need for invasive support continues to be associated with high mortality risk.

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The Association Between Maternal Age and Cerebral Palsy Risk Factors.

PubMed

Schneider, Rilla E; Ng, Pamela; Zhang, Xun; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael I; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-05-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with higher frequencies of antenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as a higher risk of cerebral palsy in offspring. We explore the association between maternal age and specific cerebral palsy risk factors. Data were extracted from the Canadian Cerebral Palsy Registry. Maternal age was categorized as ≥35 years of age and less than 20 years of age at the time of birth. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The final sample consisted of 1391 children with cerebral palsy, with 19% of children having mothers aged 35 or older and 4% of children having mothers below the age of 20. Univariate analyses showed that mothers aged 35 or older were more likely to have gestational diabetes (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.8), to have a history of miscarriage (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.4), to have undergone fertility treatments (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.9), and to have delivered by Caesarean section (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.2). These findings were supported by multivariate analyses. Children with mothers below the age of 20 were more likely to have a congenital malformation (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2), which is also supported by multivariate analysis. The risk factor profiles of children with cerebral palsy vary by maternal age. Future studies are warranted to further our understanding of the compound causal pathways leading to cerebral palsy and the observed greater prevalence of cerebral palsy with increasing maternal age. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

A Simple Method for Deriving the Confidence Regions for the Penalized Cox’s Model via the Minimand Perturbation†

PubMed Central

Lin, Chen-Yen; Halabi, Susan

2017-01-01

We propose a minimand perturbation method to derive the confidence regions for the regularized estimators for the Cox’s proportional hazards model. Although the regularized estimation procedure produces a more stable point estimate, it remains challenging to provide an interval estimator or an analytic variance estimator for the associated point estimate. Based on the sandwich formula, the current variance estimator provides a simple approximation, but its finite sample performance is not entirely satisfactory. Besides, the sandwich formula can only provide variance estimates for the non-zero coefficients. In this article, we present a generic description for the perturbation method and then introduce a computation algorithm using the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method can better approximate the limiting distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator and produces more accurate inference compared with the sandwich formula. The simulation results also indicate the possibility of extending the applications to the adaptive elastic-net penalty. We further demonstrate our method using data from a phase III clinical trial in prostate cancer. PMID:29326496

A Simple Method for Deriving the Confidence Regions for the Penalized Cox's Model via the Minimand Perturbation.

PubMed

Lin, Chen-Yen; Halabi, Susan

2017-01-01

We propose a minimand perturbation method to derive the confidence regions for the regularized estimators for the Cox's proportional hazards model. Although the regularized estimation procedure produces a more stable point estimate, it remains challenging to provide an interval estimator or an analytic variance estimator for the associated point estimate. Based on the sandwich formula, the current variance estimator provides a simple approximation, but its finite sample performance is not entirely satisfactory. Besides, the sandwich formula can only provide variance estimates for the non-zero coefficients. In this article, we present a generic description for the perturbation method and then introduce a computation algorithm using the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method can better approximate the limiting distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator and produces more accurate inference compared with the sandwich formula. The simulation results also indicate the possibility of extending the applications to the adaptive elastic-net penalty. We further demonstrate our method using data from a phase III clinical trial in prostate cancer.

Neonatal stretched penile length: relationship with gestational maturity and anthropometric parameters at birth.

PubMed

Bhakhri, Bhanu Kiran; Meena, Shyam Sundar; Rawat, Mayank; Datta, Vikram

2015-02-01

It is inappropriate to use universal cut-off points to interpret stretched penile length (SPL) measurements in newborns with variable body dimensions. To assess neonatal SPL on the basis of gestational maturity and anthropometric parameters at birth. A cross-sectional observational study of SPL was conducted on stable newborns at a referral teaching hospital in north India between January and June 2012. Gestational maturity, SPL and anthropometric parameters (weight, length, head circumference and foot length) were recorded within 24 hours of birth. Variation of SPL in relation to gestational age and anthropometric parameters were evaluated using multiple linear regression models. The equation using lower confidence limits of 95% confidence intervals for the correlation coefficients provides cut-off points to define a small penis. Data from 1249 newborns demonstrated that penile growth follows the pattern of increase in body dimensions in newborns. SPL can be predicted best in relation to body and foot length taken together. SPL should be interpreted in relation to anthropometric parameters in newborns, particularly body and foot length.

Venetoclax does not prolong the QT interval in patients with hematological malignancies: an exposure-response analysis.

PubMed

Freise, Kevin J; Dunbar, Martin; Jones, Aksana K; Hoffman, David; Enschede, Sari L Heitner; Wong, Shekman; Salem, Ahmed Hamed

2016-10-01

Venetoclax (ABT-199/GDC-0199) is a selective first-in-class B cell lymphoma-2 inhibitor being developed for the treatment of hematological malignancies. The aim of this study was to determine the potential of venetoclax to prolong the corrected QT (QTc) interval and to evaluate the relationship between systemic venetoclax concentration and QTc interval. The study population included 176 male and female patients with relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (n = 105) or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (n = 71) enrolled in a phase 1 safety, pharmacokinetic, and efficacy study. Electrocardiograms were collected in triplicate at time-matched points (2, 4, 6, and 8 h) prior to the first venetoclax administration and after repeated venetoclax administration to achieve steady state conditions. Venetoclax doses ranged from 100 to 1200 mg daily. Plasma venetoclax samples were collected after steady state electrocardiogram measurements. The mean and upper bound of the 2-sided 90 % confidence interval (CI) QTc change from baseline were <5 and <10 ms, respectively, at all time points and doses (<400, 400, and >400 mg). Three subjects had single QTc values >500 ms and/or ΔQTc > 60 ms. The effect of venetoclax concentration on both ΔQTc and QTc was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). At the mean maximum concentrations achieved with therapeutic (400 mg) and supra-therapeutic (1200 mg) venetoclax doses, the estimated drug effects on QTc were 0.137 (90 % CI [-1.01 to 1.28]) and 0.263 (90 % CI [-1.92 to 2.45]) ms, respectively. Venetoclax does not prolong QTc interval even at supra-therapeutic doses, and there is no relationship between venetoclax concentrations and QTc interval.

A thorough QT study to evaluate the effects of therapeutic and supratherapeutic doses of delafloxacin on cardiac repolarization.

PubMed

Litwin, Jeffrey S; Benedict, Michael S; Thorn, Michael D; Lawrence, Laura E; Cammarata, Sue K; Sun, Eugene

2015-01-01

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 4-period crossover study was conducted in 52 healthy adults to assess the effect of delafloxacin on the corrected QT (QTc) interval. The QT interval, corrected for heart rate using Fridericia's formula (QTcF), was determined predose and at 0.5, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h after dosing with delafloxacin at 300 mg intravenously (i.v.; therapeutic), delafloxacin at 900 mg i.v. (supratherapeutic), moxifloxacin at 400 mg orally (p.o.; positive control), and placebo. The pharmacokinetic profile of delafloxacin was also evaluated. At each time point after delafloxacin administration, the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval (CI) for the placebo-corrected change from the predose baseline in QTcF (ΔΔQTcF) was less than 10 ms (maximum, 3.9 ms at 18 h after dosing), indicating an absence of a clinically meaningful increase in the QTc interval. The lower limit of the 90% CI of ΔΔQTcF for moxifloxacin versus placebo was longer than 5 ms at all 5 time points selected for assay sensitivity analysis, demonstrating that the study was adequately sensitive to assess QTc prolongation. There was no positive relationship between delafloxacin plasma concentrations and ΔΔQTcF. Treatment-emergent adverse events (AEs) were more frequent among subjects receiving a single supratherapeutic dose of 900 mg delafloxacin. There were no deaths, serious AEs, or AEs leading to study discontinuation and no clinically meaningful abnormalities in laboratory values or vital signs observed at any time point after any dose of the study drug. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

A Thorough QT Study To Evaluate the Effects of Therapeutic and Supratherapeutic Doses of Delafloxacin on Cardiac Repolarization

PubMed Central

Benedict, Michael S.; Thorn, Michael D.; Lawrence, Laura E.; Cammarata, Sue K.; Sun, Eugene

2015-01-01

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 4-period crossover study was conducted in 52 healthy adults to assess the effect of delafloxacin on the corrected QT (QTc) interval. The QT interval, corrected for heart rate using Fridericia's formula (QTcF), was determined predose and at 0.5, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h after dosing with delafloxacin at 300 mg intravenously (i.v.; therapeutic), delafloxacin at 900 mg i.v. (supratherapeutic), moxifloxacin at 400 mg orally (p.o.; positive control), and placebo. The pharmacokinetic profile of delafloxacin was also evaluated. At each time point after delafloxacin administration, the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval (CI) for the placebo-corrected change from the predose baseline in QTcF (ΔΔQTcF) was less than 10 ms (maximum, 3.9 ms at 18 h after dosing), indicating an absence of a clinically meaningful increase in the QTc interval. The lower limit of the 90% CI of ΔΔQTcF for moxifloxacin versus placebo was longer than 5 ms at all 5 time points selected for assay sensitivity analysis, demonstrating that the study was adequately sensitive to assess QTc prolongation. There was no positive relationship between delafloxacin plasma concentrations and ΔΔQTcF. Treatment-emergent adverse events (AEs) were more frequent among subjects receiving a single supratherapeutic dose of 900 mg delafloxacin. There were no deaths, serious AEs, or AEs leading to study discontinuation and no clinically meaningful abnormalities in laboratory values or vital signs observed at any time point after any dose of the study drug. PMID:25845864

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Regenerative Simulation of Response Times in Networks of Queues.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-11-01

i jobs at center 1. Nov consider the network of queues in Figure 2.2, formulated (Lewis and Shedler ( 1971 )) as a model of system overhead in...7.2 leading to point estimates and confidence intervals for the quantity r(f) are that the pairs of random variables {( V(fHk) : kall (9.2.3) are...189 Next we show that P’=P. Since P ’m"CIP for all i, we can use the Skorohod representation theorem (see Skorohod (1956) or Billingsley ( 1971 )) to

A computational statistics approach for estimating the spatial range of morphogen gradients

PubMed Central

Kanodia, Jitendra S.; Kim, Yoosik; Tomer, Raju; Khan, Zia; Chung, Kwanghun; Storey, John D.; Lu, Hang; Keller, Philipp J.; Shvartsman, Stanislav Y.

2011-01-01

A crucial issue in studies of morphogen gradients relates to their range: the distance over which they can act as direct regulators of cell signaling, gene expression and cell differentiation. To address this, we present a straightforward statistical framework that can be used in multiple developmental systems. We illustrate the developed approach by providing a point estimate and confidence interval for the spatial range of the graded distribution of nuclear Dorsal, a transcription factor that controls the dorsoventral pattern of the Drosophila embryo. PMID:22007136

HDL-cholesterol and the incidence of lung cancer in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

PubMed Central

Kucharska-Newton, Anna M.; Rosamond, Wayne D.; Schroeder, Jane C.; McNeill, Ann Marie; Coresh, Josef; Folsom, Aaron R.

2008-01-01

Summary This study examined prospectively the association of baseline plasma HDL-cholesterol levels with incidence of lung cancer in 14, 547 members of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. There were 259 cases of incident lung cancer identified during follow-up from 1987 through 2000. Results of this study indicated a relatively weak inverse association of HDL-cholesterol with lung cancer that was dependent on smoking status. The hazard ratio of lung cancer incidence in relation to low HDL-cholesterol, adjusted for race, gender, exercise, alcohol consumption, body mass index, triglycerides, age, and cigarette pack-years of smoking, was 1.45 (95% confidence interval 1.10, 1.92). This association was observed among former smokers (hazard ratio: 1.77, 95% confidence interval 1.05, 2.97), but not current smokers. The number of cases among never smokers in this study was too small (n=13) for meaningful interpretation of effect estimates. Excluding cases occurring within five years of baseline did not appreciably change the point estimates, suggesting lack of reverse causality. The modest association of low plasma HDL-cholesterol with greater incident lung cancer observed in this study is in agreement with existing case-control studies. PMID:18342390

Point and interval estimation of pollinator importance: a study using pollination data of Silene caroliniana.

PubMed

Reynolds, Richard J; Fenster, Charles B

2008-05-01

Pollinator importance, the product of visitation rate and pollinator effectiveness, is a descriptive parameter of the ecology and evolution of plant-pollinator interactions. Naturally, sources of its variation should be investigated, but the SE of pollinator importance has never been properly reported. Here, a Monte Carlo simulation study and a result from mathematical statistics on the variance of the product of two random variables are used to estimate the mean and confidence limits of pollinator importance for three visitor species of the wildflower, Silene caroliniana. Both methods provided similar estimates of mean pollinator importance and its interval if the sample size of the visitation and effectiveness datasets were comparatively large. These approaches allowed us to determine that bumblebee importance was significantly greater than clearwing hawkmoth, which was significantly greater than beefly. The methods could be used to statistically quantify temporal and spatial variation in pollinator importance of particular visitor species. The approaches may be extended for estimating the variance of more than two random variables. However, unless the distribution function of the resulting statistic is known, the simulation approach is preferable for calculating the parameter's confidence limits.

Training, executive, attention and motor skills (TEAMS) training versus standard treatment for preschool children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: a randomised clinical trial.

PubMed

Vibholm, Helle Annette; Pedersen, Jesper; Faltinsen, Erlend; Marcussen, Michael H; Gluud, Christian; Storebø, Ole Jakob

2018-06-08

This study compared the effectiveness of manualised training, executive, attention, and motor skills (TEAMS) training versus standard treatment in preschool children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We conducted a randomised parallel group, single-blinded, superiority trial. The primary outcome was ADHD symptoms and the secondary outcome was functionality. Parents and primary school teachers assessed outcomes at pretreatment, posttreatment, and at one, three, and 6 months follow-up. In total, 67 children (aged 3-6 years) were randomised. In the TEAMS group, 32 out of 33 (97%) participants completed the total 8-week program, compared with only 7 out of 26 (27%) in the control group. The repeated-model analyses showed no significant change between the two interventions for ADHD symptoms and functionality levels over time. The mean difference in ADHD symptoms between TEAMS versus standard treatment at posttreatment was 2.18 points (95% confidence interval - 8.62 to 13.0; trial sequential analysis-adjusted confidence interval - 19.3 to 23.7). Trial registration Clinical Trials identifier: NCT01918436 (Retrospectively registered). Registered on 7 August 2013.

Decline in lung function among cement production workers: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Moghadam, Somayeh Rahimi; Abedi, Siavosh; Afshari, Mahdi; Abedini, Ehsan; Moosazadeh, Mahmood

2017-12-20

Several studies with different results have been performed regarding cement dust exposure and its pathogenic outcomes during the previous years. This study aims to combine these results to obtain a reliable estimate of the effect of exposure to cement dust. PubMed and other data banks were searched to identify required electronic articles. The search was extended interviewing with relevant experts and research centers. Point and pooled estimates of outcome with 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Participants were 5371 exposed and 2650 unexposed persons. Total mean differences (95% confidence intervals) were estimated as of -0.48 (-0.71 to -0.25) L for forced vital capacity (FVC), -0.7 (-0.92 to -0.47) L for forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), -0.43 (-0.68 to -0.19) L for FEV1/FVC%, -0.73 (-1.15 to -0.30) L/min for PEFR and -0.36 (-0.51 to -0.21) L/s for FEF25-75. Our meta-analysis showed that cement dust has significant impact on lung function and reduces the indicators of FVC, FEV1, FEV1/FVC, PEFR and FEF25-75.

Influence of applied quantity of sunscreen products on the sun protection factor--a multicenter study organized by the DGK Task Force Sun Protection.

PubMed

Bimczok, R; Gers-Barlag, H; Mundt, C; Klette, E; Bielfeldt, S; Rudolph, T; Pflucker, F; Heinrich, U; Tronnier, H; Johncock, W; Klebon, B; Westenfelder, H; Flosser-Muller, H; Jenni, K; Kockott, D; Lademann, J; Herzog, B; Rohr, M

2007-01-01

It is often debated that the protection against solar-induced erythema under real conditions is dependent upon the amount of sunscreen applied. It is believed that when too little is applied a lower sun protection than indicated on the label will result. The aim of this study was to quantify this effect. In this multicenter study, the influence of three different amounts (0.5, 1.0, 2.0 mg/cm(2)) of three commercial sunscreen products in three reliable test centers was investigated according to the test protocol of The International Sun Protection Factor Test Method. The main result was a linear dependence of the SPF on the quantity applied. Taking into consideration the volunteer-specific variations, an exponential dependence of confidence interval of the in vivo SPF and amount applied was found. The highest amount applied (2.0 mg/cm(2)) was linked to the lowest confidence intervals. Thus, from the point of view of producing reliable and reproducible in vivo results under laboratory conditions, the recommendation of this multicenter study is an application quantity of 2.0 mg/cm(2).

Increased calcium supplementation is associated with morbidity and mortality in the infant postoperative cardiac patient.

PubMed

Dyke, Peter C; Yates, Andrew R; Cua, Clifford L; Hoffman, Timothy M; Hayes, John; Feltes, Timothy F; Springer, Michelle A; Taeed, Roozbeh

2007-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association of calcium replacement therapy with morbidity and mortality in infants after cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective chart review. The cardiac intensive care unit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Infants undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass between October 2002 and August 2004. None. Total calcium replacement (mg/kg calcium chloride given) for the first 72 postoperative hours was measured. Morbidity and mortality data were collected. The total volume of blood products given during the first 72 hrs was recorded. Infants with confirmed chromosomal deletions at the 22q11 locus were noted. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with p < .05 being significant. One hundred seventy-one infants met inclusion criteria. Age was 4 +/- 3 months and weight was 4.9 +/- 1.7 kg at surgery. Six infants had deletions of chromosome 22q11. Infants who weighed less required more calcium replacement (r = -.28, p < .001). Greater calcium replacement correlated with a longer intensive care unit length of stay (r = .27, p < .001) and a longer total hospital length of stay (r = .23, p = .002). Greater calcium replacement was significantly associated with morbidity (liver dysfunction [odds ratio, 3.9; confidence interval, 2.1-7.3; p < .001], central nervous system complication [odds ratio, 1.8; confidence interval, 1.1-3.0; p = .02], infection [odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.0-2.2; p < .04], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [odds ratio, 5.0; confidence interval, 2.3-10.6; p < .001]) and mortality (odds ratio, 5.8; confidence interval, 5.8-5.9; p < .001). Greater calcium replacement was not associated with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 0.9-2.3; p = .07). Infants with >1 sd above the mean of total calcium replacement received on average fewer blood products than the total study population. Greater calcium replacement is associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Further investigation of the etiology and therapy of hypocalcemia in this population is warranted.

WITHDRAWN: Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus

2009-01-21

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Reliability of clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri K; Kuikka, Paavo-Ilari; Leppänen, Vesa-Veikko; Kiuru, Martti J; Mattila, Ville M

2010-04-01

This diagnostic study was performed to determine the correlation between anterior knee pain and chondromalacia patellae and to define the reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae. Fifty-six young adults (median age, 19.5 years) with anterior knee pain had magnetic resonance imaging of the knee followed by arthroscopy. The patellar chondral lesions identified by magnetic resonance imaging were compared with the arthroscopic findings. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of chondromalacia patellae in twenty-five (45%) of the fifty-six knees, a synovial plica in twenty-five knees, a meniscal tear in four knees, and a femorotibial chondral lesion in four knees; normal anatomy was seen in six knees. No association was found between the severity of the chondromalacia patellae seen at arthroscopy and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome (p = 0.83). The positive predictive value for the ability of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging to detect chondromalacia patellae was 75% (95% confidence interval, 53% to 89%), the negative predictive value was 72% (95% confidence interval, 56% to 84%), the sensitivity was 60% (95% confidence interval, 41% to 77%), the specificity was 84% (95% confidence interval, 67% to 93%), and the diagnostic accuracy was 73% (95% confidence interval, 60% to 83%). The sensitivity was 13% (95% confidence interval, 2% to 49%) for grade-I lesions and 83% (95% confidence interval, 59% to 94%) for grade-II, III, or IV lesions. Chondromalacia patellae cannot be diagnosed on the basis of symptoms or with current physical examination methods. The present study demonstrated no correlation between the severity of chondromalacia patellae and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome. Thus, symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome should not be used as an indication for knee arthroscopy. The sensitivity of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging was low for grade-I lesions but considerably higher for more severe (grade-II, III, or IV) lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging may be considered an accurate diagnostic tool for identification of more severe cases of chondromalacia patellae.

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M.; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long–term prognostic value. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Results Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). Conclusions The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. PMID:27697781

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis.

PubMed

Verde, Eduardo; Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-12-07

Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long-term prognostic value. We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

2015-01-01

Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Efficacy and safety of AIR inhaled insulin compared to insulin lispro in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus in a 6-month, randomized, noninferiority trial.

PubMed

Comulada, Angel L; Renard, Eric; Nakano, Masako; Rais, Nadeem; Mao, Xuejing; Webb, David M; Milicevic, Zvonko

2009-09-01

Patients with type 1 diabetes may prefer features of AIR inhaled insulin (developed by Alkermes, Inc. [Cambridge, MA] and Eli Lilly and Company [Indianapolis, IN]; AIR is a registered trademark of Alkermes, Inc.) over insulin injection, but the two methods need to be compared for efficacy and safety. This multicenter, 6-month, parallel-group, noninferiority trial had 500 patients with type 1 diabetes randomized to morning doses of basal insulin glargine plus either preprandial injectable insulin lispro or preprandial AIR insulin. We hypothesized that AIR insulin is noninferior (upper bound of the 95% confidence interval < or = 0.4%) to insulin lispro for change-from-baseline hemoglobin A1C (A1C). Baseline A1C was 7.95 +/- 0.08% for both groups. At end point, A1C was lower with insulin lispro than with AIR insulin by 0.27% (95% confidence interval 0.11, 0.43; P< 0.001). Noninferiority of AIR insulin to insulin lispro was not demonstrated, but similar percentages of patients in each group achieved A1C <7.0% (P = 0.448). Overall daily blood glucose was similar between groups at baseline (P = 0.879) and end point (P = 0.161). Two-hour postprandial blood glucose change from baseline was significantly (P < 0.001) higher with AIR insulin (20.77 +/- 4.33 mg/dL at 3 months and 15.85 +/- 3.08 mg/dL at end point) than with insulin lispro (3.29 +/- 4.14 mg/dL at 3 months and 1.67 +/- 2.91 mg/dL at end point). Overall hypoglycemia was similar between treatment groups (P = 0.355). The AIR insulin group had greater decrease in diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide at end point (P = 0.020) and greater incidence of cough (P = 0.024) and dyspnea (P = 0.030). Body weight decreased in the AIR insulin group and increased in the insulin lispro group. Insulin lispro provided lower A1C than AIR insulin, but the difference may not be clinically relevant.

Effect of high-dose oral multivitamins and minerals in participants not treated with statins in the randomized Trial to Assess Chelation Therapy (TACT).

PubMed

Issa, Omar M; Roberts, Rhonda; Mark, Daniel B; Boineau, Robin; Goertz, Christine; Rosenberg, Yves; Lewis, Eldrin F; Guarneri, Erminia; Drisko, Jeanne; Magaziner, Allan; Lee, Kerry L; Lamas, Gervasio A

2018-01-01

In a prespecified subgroup analysis of participants not on statin therapy at baseline in the TACT, a high-dose complex oral multivitamins and multimineral regimen was found to have a large unexpected benefit compared with placebo. The regimen tested was substantially different from any vitamin regimen tested in prior clinical trials. To explore these results, we performed detailed additional analyses of participants not on statins at enrollment in TACT. TACT was a factorial trial testing chelation treatments and a 28-component high-dose oral multivitamins and multiminerals regimen versus placebo in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients 50 years or older. There were 460 (27%) of 1,708 TACT participants not taking statins at baseline, 224 (49%) were in the active vitamin group and 236 (51%) were in the placebo group. Patients were enrolled at 134 sites around the United States and Canada. Daily high-dose oral multivitamins and multiminerals (6 tablets, active or placebo). The primary end point of TACT was time to the first occurrence of any component of the composite end point: all-cause mortality, MI, stroke, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for angina. The primary end point occurred in 137 nonstatin participants (30%), of which 51 (23%) of 224 were in the active group and 86 (36%) of 236 were taking placebo (hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.87; P=.006). Results in the key TACT secondary end point, a combination of cardiovascular mortality, stroke, or recurrent MI, was consistent in favoring the active vitamin group (hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.75; P=.002). Multiple end point analyses were consistent with these results. High-dose oral multivitamin and multimineral supplementation seem to decrease combined cardiac events in a stable, post-MI population not taking statin therapy at baseline. These unexpected findings are being retested in the ongoing TACT2. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The association between preoperative spinal cord rotation and postoperative C5 nerve palsy.

PubMed

Eskander, Mark S; Balsis, Steve M; Balinger, Chris; Howard, Caitlin M; Lewing, Nicholas W; Eskander, Jonathan P; Aubin, Michelle E; Lange, Jeffrey; Eck, Jason; Connolly, Patrick J; Jenis, Louis G

2012-09-05

C5 nerve palsy is a known complication of cervical spine surgery. The development and etiology of this complication are not completely understood. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether rotation of the cervical spinal cord predicts the development of a C5 palsy. We performed a retrospective review of prospectively collected spine registry data as well as magnetic resonance images. We reviewed the records for 176 patients with degenerative disorders of the cervical spine who underwent anterior cervical decompression or corpectomy within the C4 to C6 levels. Our measurements included area for the spinal cord, space available for the cord, and rotation of the cord with respect to the vertebral body. There was a 6.8% prevalence of postoperative C5 nerve palsy as defined by deltoid motor strength of ≤ 3 of 5. The average rotation of the spinal cord (and standard deviation) was 2.8° ± 3.0°. A significant association was detected between the degree of rotation (0° to 5° versus 6° to 10° versus ≥ 11°) and palsy (point-biserial correlation = 0.94; p < 0.001). A diagnostic criterion of 6° of rotation could identify patients who had a C5 palsy (sensitivity = 1.00 [95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 1.00], specificity = 0.97 [95% confidence interval, 0.93 to 0.99], positive predictive value = 0.71 [95% confidence interval, 0.44 to 0.89], negative predictive value = 1.00 [95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.00]). Our evidence suggests that spinal cord rotation is a strong and significant predictor of C5 palsy postoperatively. Patients can be classified into three types, with Type 1 representing mild rotation (0° to 5°), Type 2 representing moderate rotation (6° to 10°), and Type 3 representing severe rotation (≥ 11°). The rate of C5 palsy was zero of 159 in the Type-1 group, eight of thirteen in the Type-2 group, and four of four in the Type-3 group. This information may be valuable for surgeons and patients considering anterior surgery in the C4 to C6 levels.

Reliability and validity of the de Morton Mobility Index in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

PubMed

Braun, Tobias; Marks, Detlef; Thiel, Christian; Grüneberg, Christian

2018-02-04

To establish the validity and reliability of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) in patients with sub-acute stroke. This cross-sectional study was performed in a neurological rehabilitation hospital. We assessed unidimensionality, construct validity, internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, minimal detectable change and possible floor and ceiling effects of the DEMMI in adult patients with sub-acute stroke. The study included a total sample of 121 patients with sub-acute stroke. We analysed validity (n = 109) and reliability (n = 51) in two sub-samples. Rasch analysis indicated unidimensionality with an overall fit to the model (chi-square = 12.37, p = 0.577). All hypotheses on construct validity were confirmed. Internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94) and inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.95; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-0.97) were excellent. The minimal detectable change with 90% confidence was 13 points. No floor or ceiling effects were evident. These results indicate unidimensionality, sufficient internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, and construct validity of the DEMMI in patients with a sub-acute stroke. Advantages of the DEMMI in clinical application are the short administration time, no need for special equipment and interval level data. The de Morton Mobility Index, therefore, may be a useful performance-based bedside test to measure mobility in individuals with a sub-acute stroke across the whole mobility spectrum. Implications for Rehabilitation The de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) is an unidimensional measurement instrument of mobility in individuals with sub-acute stroke. The DEMMI has excellent internal consistency and inter-rater reliability, and sufficient construct validity. The minimal detectable change of the DEMMI with 90% confidence in stroke rehabilitation is 13 points. The lack of any floor or ceiling effects on hospital admission indicates applicability across the whole mobility spectrum of patients with sub-acute stroke.

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after bariatric surgery; a systematic review and meta-analysis: do the benefits outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Kwong, Wilson; Tomlinson, George; Feig, Denice S

2018-02-15

Obesity during pregnancy is associated with a number of adverse obstetric outcomes that include gestational diabetes mellitus, macrosomia, and preeclampsia. Increasing evidence shows that bariatric surgery may decrease the risk of these outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery in obese women according to obstetric outcomes. We performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, and PubMed from inception up to December 12, 2016. Studies were included if they evaluated patients who underwent bariatric surgery, reported subsequent pregnancy outcomes, and compared these outcomes with a control group. Two reviewers extracted study outcomes independently, and risk of bias was assessed with the use of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Pooled odds ratios for each outcome were estimated with the Dersimonian and Laird random effects model. After a review of 2616 abstracts, 20 cohort studies and approximately 2.8 million subjects (8364 of whom had bariatric surgery) were included in the metaanalysis. In our primary analysis, patients who underwent bariatric surgery showed reduced rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.37, number needed to benefit, 5), large-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.59; number needed to benefit, 6), gestational hypertension (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.76; number needed to benefit, 11), all hypertensive disorders (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.53; number needed to benefit, 8), postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.37; number needed to benefit, 21), and caesarean delivery rates (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.67; number needed to benefit, 9); however, group of patients showed an increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 21), intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 66), and preterm deliveries (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.79; number needed to harm, 35) when compared with control subjects who were matched for presurgery body mass index. There were no differences in rates of preeclampsia, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, stillbirths, malformations, and neonatal death. Malabsorptive surgeries resulted in a greater increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (P=.0466) and a greater decrease in large-for-gestational-age infants (P=<.0001) compared with restrictive surgeries. There were no differences in outcomes when we used administrative databases vs clinical charts. Although bariatric surgery is associated with a reduction in the risk of several adverse obstetric outcomes, there is a potential for an increased risk of other important outcomes that should be considered when bariatric surgery is discussed with reproductive-age women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating intervention fidelity: an example from a high-intensity interval training study.

PubMed

Taylor, Kathryn L; Weston, Matthew; Batterham, Alan M

2015-01-01

Intervention fidelity refers to the degree to which an experimental manipulation has been implemented as intended, but simple, robust methods for quantifying fidelity have not been well documented. Therefore, we aim to illustrate a rigorous quantitative evaluation of intervention fidelity, using data collected during a high-intensity interval training intervention. Single-group measurement study. Seventeen adolescents (mean age ± standard deviation [SD] 14.0 ± 0.3 years) attended a 10-week high-intensity interval training intervention, comprising two exercise sessions per week. Sessions consisted of 4-7 45-s maximal effort repetitions, interspersed with 90-s rest. We collected heart rate data at 5-s intervals and recorded the peak heart rate for each repetition. The high-intensity exercise criterion was ≥ 90% of individual maximal heart rate. For each participant, we calculated the proportion of total exercise repetitions exceeding this threshold. A linear mixed model was applied to properly separate the variability in peak heart rate between- and within-subjects. Results are presented both as intention to treat (including missed sessions) and per protocol (only participants with 100% attendance; n=8). For intention to treat, the median (interquartile range) proportion of repetitions meeting the high-intensity criterion was 58% (42% to 68%). The mean peak heart rate was 85% of maximal, with a between-subject SD of 7.8 (95% confidence interval 5.4 to 11.3) percentage points and a within-subject SD of 15.1 (14.6 to 15.6) percentage points. For the per protocol analysis, the median proportion of high-intensity repetitions was 68% (47% to 86%). The mean peak heart rate was 91% of maximal, with between- and within-subject SDs of 3.1 (-1.3 to 4.6) and 3.4 (3.2 to 3.6) percentage points, respectively. Synthesising information on exercise session attendance and compliance (exercise intensity) quantifies the intervention dose and informs evaluations of treatment fidelity.

Clinical effectiveness of a manual based coping strategy programme (START, STrAtegies for RelaTives) in promoting the mental health of carers of family members with dementia: pragmatic randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

Barber, Julie; Rapaport, Penny; Knapp, Martin; Griffin, Mark; King, Derek; Mummery, Cath; Walker, Zuzana; Hoe, Juanita; Sampson, Elizabeth L; Cooper, Claudia

2013-01-01

Objective To assess whether a manual based coping strategy compared with treatment as usual reduces depression and anxiety symptoms in carers of family members with dementia. Design Randomised, parallel group, superiority trial. Setting Three mental health community services and one neurological outpatient dementia service in London and Essex, UK. Participants 260 carers of family members with dementia. Intervention A manual based coping intervention comprising eight sessions and delivered by supervised psychology graduates to carers of family members with dementia. The programme consisted of psychoeducation about dementia, carers’ stress, and where to get emotional support; understanding behaviours of the family member being cared for, and behavioural management techniques; changing unhelpful thoughts; promoting acceptance; assertive communication; relaxation; planning for the future; increasing pleasant activities; and maintaining skills learnt. Carers practised these techniques at home, using the manual and relaxation CDs. Main outcome measures Affective symptoms (hospital anxiety and depression total score) at four and eight months. Secondary outcomes were depression and anxiety caseness on the hospital anxiety and depression scale; quality of life of both the carer (health status questionnaire, mental health) and the recipient of care (quality of life-Alzheimer’s disease); and potentially abusive behaviour by the carer towards the recipient of care (modified conflict tactics scale). Results 260 carers were recruited; 173 were randomised to the intervention and 87 to treatment as usual. Mean total scores on the hospital anxiety and depression scale were lower in the intervention group than in the treatment as usual group over the eight month evaluation period: adjusted difference in means −1.80 points (95% confidence interval −3.29 to −0.31; P=0.02) and absolute difference in means −2.0 points. Carers in the intervention group were less likely to have case level depression (odds ratio 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.76) and there was a non-significant trend towards reduced case level anxiety (0.30, 0.08 to 1.05). Carers’ quality of life was higher in the intervention group (difference in means 4.09, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 7.83) but not for the recipient of care (difference in means 0.59, −0.72 to 1.89). Carers in the intervention group reported less abusive behaviour towards the recipient of care compared with those in the treatment as usual group (odds ratio 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.18 to 1.23), although this was not significant. Conclusions A manual based coping strategy was effective in reducing affective symptoms and case level depression in carers of family members with dementia. The carers’ quality of life also improved. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISCTRN70017938. PMID:24162942

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1983-01-01

The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and quality of life.

PubMed

Jelovsek, J Eric; Barber, Matthew D

2006-05-01

Women who seek treatment for pelvic organ prolapse strive for an improvement in quality of life. Body image has been shown to be an important component of differences in quality of life. To date, there are no data on body image in patients with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Our objective was to compare body image and quality of life in women with advanced pelvic organ prolapse with normal controls. We used a case-control study design. Cases were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary urogynecology clinic with advanced pelvic organ prolapse (stage 3 or 4). Controls were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary care gynecology or women's health clinic for an annual visit with normal pelvic floor support (stage 0 or 1) and without urinary incontinence. All patients completed a valid and reliable body image scale and a generalized (Short Form Health Survey) and condition-specific (Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20) quality-of-life scale. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust for possible confounding variables. Forty-seven case and 51 control subjects were enrolled. After controlling for age, race, parity, previous hysterectomy, and medical comorbidities, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse were more likely to feel self-conscious (adjusted odds ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 18, P = .02), less likely to feel physically attractive (adjusted odds ratio 11; 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 51, P < .001), less likely to feel feminine (adjusted odds ratio 4.0; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 15, P = .03), and less likely to feel sexually attractive (adjusted odds ratio 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 17, P = .02) than normal controls. The groups were similar in their feeling of dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed, difficulty looking at themselves naked, avoiding people because of appearance, and overall dissatisfaction with their body. Subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse suffered significantly lower quality of life on the physical scale of the SF-12 (mean 42; 95% confidence interval 39 to 45 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 53, P < .009). However, no differences between groups were noted on the mental scale of the SF-12 (mean 51; 95% confidence interval 50 to 54 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 52, P = .56). Additionally, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse scored significantly worse on the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 than normal controls (mean summary score 104; 95% confidence interval 90 to 118 versus mean 29; 95% confidence interval 16 to 43, P < .0001), indicating a decrease in condition-specific quality of life. Worsening body image correlated with lower quality of life on both the physical and mental scales of the SF-12 as well as the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 in subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and overall quality of life. Body image may be a key determinant for quality of life in patients with advanced prolapse and may be an important outcome measure for treatment evaluation in clinical trials.

Exercise during pregnancy in normal-weight women and risk of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Di Mascio, Daniele; Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Marhefka, Gregary D; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-11-01

Preterm birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality in the United States. In the past, pregnant women have been recommended to not exercise because of presumed risks of preterm birth. Physical activity has been theoretically related to preterm birth because it increases the release of catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, which might stimulate myometrial activity. Conversely, exercise may reduce the risk of preterm birth by other mechanisms such as decreased oxidative stress or improved placenta vascularization. Therefore, the safety of exercise regarding preterm birth and its effects on gestational age at delivery remain controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of preterm birth. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception of each database to April 2016. Selection criteria included only randomized clinical trials of pregnant women randomized before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. Types of participants included women of normal weight with uncomplicated, singleton pregnancies without any obstetric contraindication to physical activity. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean difference with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of preterm birth <37 weeks. Of the 2059 women included in the meta-analysis, 1022 (49.6%) were randomized to the exercise group and 1037 (50.4%) to the control group. Aerobic exercise lasted about 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week. Women who were randomized to aerobic exercise had a similar incidence of preterm birth of <37 weeks (4.5% vs 4.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.50) and a similar mean gestational age at delivery (mean difference, 0.05 week, 95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.17) compared with controls. Women in the exercise group had a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery (73.6% vs 67.5%; relative risk, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.15) and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (17.9% vs 22%; relative risk, 0.82, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.97) compared with controls. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery (12.9% vs 16.5%; relative risk, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.01) was similar in both groups. Women in the exercise group had a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (2.9% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.51, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.82) and a significantly lower incidence of hypertensive disorders (1.0% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.21, 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.45) compared with controls. No differences in low birthweight (5.2% vs 4.7%; relative risk, 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.73) and mean birthweight (mean difference, -10.46 g, 95% confidence interval, -47.10 to 26.21) between the exercise group and controls were found. Aerobic exercise for 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week during pregnancy can be safely performed by normal-weight women with singleton, uncomplicated gestations because this is not associated with an increased risk of preterm birth or with a reduction in mean gestational age at delivery. Exercise was associated with a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery, with a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders and therefore should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Measurement and Prediction of Field Transmission Loss as a Diagnostic Tool in Evaluation of Emergency Evacuation Signal Propagation in a Dormitory Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Donald Arthur

1984-06-01

A method is presented to predict airborne and barrier transmission loss of an audible signal as it travels from a corridor based octave band sound source to a room based receiver location. Flanking pathways are not considered in the prediction model. Although the central focus of the research is on the propagation of the signal, a comprehensive review of the source, path and receiver are presented as related to emergency audible signal propagation. Linear attenuation of the signal and end wall reflection is applied along the corridor path incorporating research conducted by T. L. Redmore of Essex, England. Classical room acoustics are applied to establish the onset of linear attenuation beyond the near field. The "coincidence effect" is applied to the transmission loss through the room door barrier. A constant barrier door transmission loss from corridor-to-room is applied throughout the 250 - 8000 Hertz octave bands. In situ measurements were conducted in two separate dormitories on the University of Massachusetts Amherst campus to verify the validity of the approach. All of the experimental data points follow the corresponding points predicted by the model with all correlations exceeding 0.9. The 95 percent confidence intervals for the absolute difference between predicted and measured values ranged from 0.76 dB to 4.5 dB based on five Leq dB levels taken at each octave band along the length of the corridor. For the corridor to room attenuation in the six test rooms, with the door closed and edge sealed, the predicted minus measured levels ranged from an interval of 0.54 to 2.90 dB Leq at octave bands from 250 to 8000 Hertz. Given the inherent difficulty of in situ tests compared to laboratory or modeling approaches the confidence intervals obtained confirm the usefulness of the prediction model presented.

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

A Novel Balance Training Program for Children With Developmental Coordination Disorder

PubMed Central

Fong, Shirley S.M.; Guo, X.; Cheng, Yoyo T.Y.; Liu, Karen P.Y.; Tsang, William W.N.; Yam, Timothy T.T.; Chung, Louisa M.Y.; Macfarlane, Duncan J.

2016-01-01

Abstract This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of a specific functional movement–power training (FMPT) program, a functional movement training (FMT) program and no training in the improvement of balance strategies, and neuromuscular performance in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD). It was a randomized, single-blinded, parallel group controlled trial. Methods: 161 children with DCD (age: 6–10 years) were randomly assigned to the FMPT, FMT, or control groups. The 2 intervention groups received FMPT or FMT twice a week for 3 months. Measurements were taken before, after, and 3 months after the end of the intervention period. The primary outcomes were the composite score and strategy scores on the sensory organization test as measured by a computerized dynamic posturography machine. Secondary outcomes included the knee muscle peak force and the time taken to reach the peak force. The balance strategies adopted in sensory challenging environments of the FMPT participants showed greater improvement from baseline to posttest than those of the FMT participants (7.10 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.51–12.69; P = 0.008) and the control participants (7.59 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.81–13.38; P = 0.005). The FMPT participants also exhibited greater improvement from baseline to the posttest in the knee extensor peak force and time to peak force in the knee flexors. The FMPT program was more effective than the conventional FMT program in the enhancement of balance strategies and neuromuscular performance in children with DCD. PMID:27100457

The effectiveness of avalanche airbags.

PubMed

Haegeli, Pascal; Falk, Markus; Procter, Emily; Zweifel, Benjamin; Jarry, Frédéric; Logan, Spencer; Kronholm, Kalle; Biskupič, Marek; Brugger, Hermann

2014-09-01

Asphyxia is the primary cause of death among avalanche victims. Avalanche airbags can lower mortality by directly reducing grade of burial, the single most important factor for survival. This study aims to provide an updated perspective on the effectiveness of this safety device. A retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents involving at least one airbag user between 1994 and 2012 in Austria, Canada, France, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland and the United States. A multivariate analysis was used to calculate adjusted absolute risk reduction and estimate the effectiveness of airbags on grade of burial and mortality. A univariate analysis was used to examine causes of non-deployment. Binomial linear regression models showed main effects for airbag use, avalanche size and injuries on critical burial, and for grade of burial, injuries and avalanche size on mortality. The adjusted risk of critical burial is 47% with non-inflated airbags and 20% with inflated airbags. The adjusted mortality is 44% for critically buried victims and 3% for non-critically buried victims. The adjusted absolute mortality reduction for inflated airbags is -11 percentage points (22% to 11%; 95% confidence interval: -4 to -18 percentage points) and adjusted risk ratio is 0.51 (95% confidence interval: 0.29 to 0.72). Overall non-inflation rate is 20%, 60% of which is attributed to deployment failure by the user. Although the impact on survival is smaller than previously reported, these results confirm the effectiveness of airbags. Non-deployment remains the most considerable limitation to effectiveness. Development of standardized data collection protocols is encouraged to facilitate further research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A straightforward method to compute average stochastic oscillations from data samples.

PubMed

Júlvez, Jorge

2015-10-19

Many biological systems exhibit sustained stochastic oscillations in their steady state. Assessing these oscillations is usually a challenging task due to the potential variability of the amplitude and frequency of the oscillations over time. As a result of this variability, when several stochastic replications are averaged, the oscillations are flattened and can be overlooked. This can easily lead to the erroneous conclusion that the system reaches a constant steady state. This paper proposes a straightforward method to detect and asses stochastic oscillations. The basis of the method is in the use of polar coordinates for systems with two species, and cylindrical coordinates for systems with more than two species. By slightly modifying these coordinate systems, it is possible to compute the total angular distance run by the system and the average Euclidean distance to a reference point. This allows us to compute confidence intervals, both for the average angular speed and for the distance to a reference point, from a set of replications. The use of polar (or cylindrical) coordinates provides a new perspective of the system dynamics. The mean trajectory that can be obtained by averaging the usual cartesian coordinates of the samples informs about the trajectory of the center of mass of the replications. In contrast to such a mean cartesian trajectory, the mean polar trajectory can be used to compute the average circular motion of those replications, and therefore, can yield evidence about sustained steady state oscillations. Both, the coordinate transformation and the computation of confidence intervals, can be carried out efficiently. This results in an efficient method to evaluate stochastic oscillations.

Estimating the Effect of School Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Improvements on Pupil Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Garn, Joshua V; Brumback, Babette A; Drews-Botsch, Carolyn D; Lash, Timothy L; Kramer, Michael R; Freeman, Matthew C

2016-09-01

We conducted a cluster-randomized water, sanitation, and hygiene trial in 185 schools in Nyanza province, Kenya. The trial, however, had imperfect school-level adherence at many schools. The primary goal of this study was to estimate the causal effects of school-level adherence to interventions on pupil diarrhea and soil-transmitted helminth infection. Schools were divided into water availability groups, which were then randomized separately into either water, sanitation, and hygiene intervention arms or a control arm. School-level adherence to the intervention was defined by the number of intervention components-water, latrines, soap-that had been adequately implemented. The outcomes of interest were pupil diarrhea and soil-transmitted helminth infection. We used a weighted generalized structural nested model to calculate prevalence ratio. In the water-scarce group, there was evidence of a reduced prevalence of diarrhea among pupils attending schools that adhered to two or to three intervention components (prevalence ratio = 0.28, 95% confidence interval: 0.10, 0.75), compared with what the prevalence would have been had the same schools instead adhered to zero components or one. In the water-available group, there was no evidence of reduced diarrhea with better adherence. For the soil-transmitted helminth infection and intensity outcomes, we often observed point estimates in the preventive direction with increasing intervention adherence, but primarily among girls, and the confidence intervals were often very wide. Our instrumental variable point estimates sometimes suggested protective effects with increased water, sanitation, and hygiene intervention adherence, although many of the estimates were imprecise.

Occupational therapy for delirium management in elderly patients without mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit: A pilot randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Álvarez, Evelyn A; Garrido, Maricel A; Tobar, Eduardo A; Prieto, Stephanie A; Vergara, Sebastian O; Briceño, Constanza D; González, Francisco J

2017-02-01

Delirium has negative consequences such as increased mortality, hospital expenses and decreased cognitive and functional status. This research aims to determine the impact of occupational therapy intervention in duration, incidence and severity of delirium in elderly patients in the intensive care unit; secondary outcome was to assess functionality at hospital discharge. This is a pilot randomized clinical trial of patients without mechanical ventilation for 60 years. Patients were assigned to a control group that received standard strategies of prevention (n=70) or to an experimental group that received standard strategies plus occupational therapy twice a day for 5 days (n=70). Delirium was valued with Confusion Assessment Method and Delirium Rating Scale, and functional outcomes at discharge with Functional Independence Measure, Hand Dynamometer, and Mini-Mental State Examination. A total of 140 participants were recruited. The experimental group had lower duration (risk incidence ratios, 0.15 [P=.000; 95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.19] vs 6.6 [P=.000, 95% confidence interval, 5.23-8.3]) and incidence of delirium (3% vs 20%, P=.001), and had higher scores in Motor Functional Independence Measure (59 vs 40 points, P<.0001), cognitive state (MMSE: 28 vs 26 points, P<.05), and grip strength in the dominant hand (26 vs 18 kg, P<.05), compared with the control group. Occupational therapy is effective in decreasing duration and incidence of delirium in nonventilated elderly patients in the intensive care unit and improved functionality at discharge. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The short-term effects of graded activity versus physiotherapy in patients with chronic low back pain: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Magalhães, Mauricio Oliveira; Muzi, Luzilauri Harumi; Comachio, Josielli; Burke, Thomaz Nogueira; Renovato França, Fabio Jorge; Vidal Ramos, Luiz Armando; Leão Almeida, Gabriel Peixoto; de Moura Campos Carvalho-e-Silva, Ana Paula; Marques, Amélia Pasqual

2015-08-01

Chronic low back pain is one of the most common problematic health conditions worldwide and is highly associated with disability, quality of life, emotional changes, and work absenteeism. Graded activity programs, based on cognitive behavioral therapy, and exercises are common treatments for patients with low back pain. However, recent evidence has shown that there is no evidence to support graded activity for patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain. to compare the effectiveness of graded activity and physiotherapy in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain. A total of 66 patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain were randomized to perform either graded activity (moderate intensity treadmill walking, brief education and strength exercises) or physiotherapy (strengthening, stretching and motor control). These patients received individual sessions twice a week for six weeks. The primary measures were intensity of pain (Pain Numerical Rating Scale) and disability (Rolland Morris Disability Questionnaire). After six weeks, significant improvements have been observed in all outcome measures of both groups, with a non-significant difference between the groups. For intensity of pain (mean difference = 0.1 points, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.1-1.3) and disability (mean difference = 0.8 points, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.6-4.2). No differences were found in the remaining outcomes. The results of this study suggest that graded activity and physiotherapy showed to be effective and have similar effects for patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advanced Maternal Age and the Risk of Low Birth Weight and Preterm Delivery: a Within-Family Analysis Using Finnish Population Registers.

PubMed

Goisis, Alice; Remes, Hanna; Barclay, Kieron; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

2017-12-01

Advanced maternal age at birth is considered a major risk factor for birth outcomes. It is unclear to what extent this association is confounded by maternal characteristics. To test whether advanced maternal age at birth independently increases the risk of low birth weight (<2,500 g) and preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation), we compared between-family models (children born to different mothers at different ages) with within-family models (children born to the same mother at different ages). The latter procedure reduces confounding by unobserved parental characteristics that are shared by siblings. We used Finnish population registers, including 124,098 children born during 1987-2000. When compared with maternal ages 25-29 years in between-family models, maternal ages of 35-39 years and ≥40 years were associated with percentage increases of 1.1 points (95% confidence intervals: 0.8, 1.4) and 2.2 points (95% confidence intervals: 1.4, 2.9), respectively, in the probability of low birth weight. The associations are similar for the risk of preterm delivery. In within-family models, the relationship between advanced maternal age and low birth weight or preterm birth is statistically and substantively negligible. In Finland, advanced maternal age is not independently associated with the risk of low birth weight or preterm delivery among mothers who have had at least 2 live births. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Improving education: just-in-time splinting video.

PubMed

Wang, Vincent; Cheng, Yu-Tsun; Liu, Deborah

2016-06-01

Just-in-time training (JITT) is an emerging concept in medical procedural education, but with few studies to support its routine use. Providing a brief educational intervention in the form of a digital video immediately prior to patient care may be an effective method to reteach knowledge for procedural techniques learned previously. Paediatric resident physicians were taught to perform a volar splint in a small workshop setting. Subsequently, they were asked to demonstrate their splinting proficiency by performing a splint on another doctor. Proficiency was scored on a five-point assessment tool. After 2-12 months, participants were asked to demonstrate their splinting proficiency on one of the investigators, and were divided into the control group (no further instruction) and the intervention group, which viewed a 3-minute JITT digital video demonstrating the splinting technique prior to performing the procedure. Thirty subjects were enrolled between August 2012 and July 2013, and 29 of 30 completed the study. The retest splinting time was not significantly different, but if the JITT group included watching the video, the total time difference was statistically significant: 3.86 minutes (control) versus 7.07 minutes (JITT) (95% confidence interval: 2.20-3.90 minutes). The average assessment score difference was 1.87 points higher for the JITT group, which was a statistically significant difference (95% confidence interval: 1.00-3.00). Just-in-time training is an emerging concept in medical procedural education JITT seems to be an effective tool in medical education for reinforcing previously learned skills. JITT may offer other possibilities for enhancing medical education. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Precision of systematic and random sampling in clustered populations: habitat patches and aggregating organisms.

PubMed

McGarvey, Richard; Burch, Paul; Matthews, Janet M

2016-01-01

Natural populations of plants and animals spatially cluster because (1) suitable habitat is patchy, and (2) within suitable habitat, individuals aggregate further into clusters of higher density. We compare the precision of random and systematic field sampling survey designs under these two processes of species clustering. Second, we evaluate the performance of 13 estimators for the variance of the sample mean from a systematic survey. Replicated simulated surveys, as counts from 100 transects, allocated either randomly or systematically within the study region, were used to estimate population density in six spatial point populations including habitat patches and Matérn circular clustered aggregations of organisms, together and in combination. The standard one-start aligned systematic survey design, a uniform 10 x 10 grid of transects, was much more precise. Variances of the 10 000 replicated systematic survey mean densities were one-third to one-fifth of those from randomly allocated transects, implying transect sample sizes giving equivalent precision by random survey would need to be three to five times larger. Organisms being restricted to patches of habitat was alone sufficient to yield this precision advantage for the systematic design. But this improved precision for systematic sampling in clustered populations is underestimated by standard variance estimators used to compute confidence intervals. True variance for the survey sample mean was computed from the variance of 10 000 simulated survey mean estimates. Testing 10 published and three newly proposed variance estimators, the two variance estimators (v) that corrected for inter-transect correlation (ν₈ and ν(W)) were the most accurate and also the most precise in clustered populations. These greatly outperformed the two "post-stratification" variance estimators (ν₂ and ν₃) that are now more commonly applied in systematic surveys. Similar variance estimator performance rankings were found with a second differently generated set of spatial point populations, ν₈ and ν(W) again being the best performers in the longer-range autocorrelated populations. However, no systematic variance estimators tested were free from bias. On balance, systematic designs bring more narrow confidence intervals in clustered populations, while random designs permit unbiased estimates of (often wider) confidence interval. The search continues for better estimators of sampling variance for the systematic survey mean.

Confidence Intervals for Laboratory Sonic Boom Annoyance Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathsam, Jonathan; Christian, Andrew

2016-01-01

Commercial supersonic flight is currently forbidden over land because sonic booms have historically caused unacceptable annoyance levels in overflown communities. NASA is providing data and expertise to noise regulators as they consider relaxing the ban for future quiet supersonic aircraft. One deliverable NASA will provide is a predictive model for indoor annoyance to aid in setting an acceptable quiet sonic boom threshold. A laboratory study was conducted to determine how indoor vibrations caused by sonic booms affect annoyance judgments. The test method required finding the point of subjective equality (PSE) between sonic boom signals that cause vibrations and signals not causing vibrations played at various amplitudes. This presentation focuses on a few statistical techniques for estimating the interval around the PSE. The techniques examined are the Delta Method, Parametric and Nonparametric Bootstrapping, and Bayesian Posterior Estimation.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

The impact of effort-reward imbalance on quality of life among Japanese working men.

PubMed

Watanabe, Mayumi; Tanaka, Katsutoshi; Aratake, Yutaka; Kato, Noritada; Sakata, Yumi

2008-07-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important measure of health outcome in working and healthy populations. Here, we investigated the impact of effort-reward imbalance (ERI), a representative work-stress model, on HRQL of Japanese working men. The study targeted 1,096 employees from a manufacturing plant in Japan. To assess HRQL and ERI, participants were surveyed using the Japanese version of the Short-Form 8 Health Survey (SF-8) and effort-reward imbalance model. Of the 1,096 employees, 1,057 provided valid responses to the questionnaire. For physical summary scores, the adjusted effort-reward imbalance odds ratios of middle vs. bottom and top vs. bottom tertiles were 0.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.70) and 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.28), respectively. For mental summary scores, ratios were 0.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.63) and 0.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.25), respectively. These findings demonstrate that effort-reward imbalance is independently associated with HRQL among Japanese employees.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ruanpeng, Darin; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sangtian, Jutarat; Harindhanavudhi, Tasma

2017-09-01

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could potentially alter calcium and phosphate homeostasis and may increase the risk of bone fracture. The current meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the fracture risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors to placebo were identified. The risk ratios of fracture among patients who received SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo were extracted from each study. Pooled risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effect, Mantel-Haenszel analysis. A total of 20 studies with 8286 patients treated with SGLT2 inhibitors were included. The pooled risk ratio of bone fracture in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.07). The pooled risk ratio for canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.19), 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-3.18), and 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.59), respectively. Increased risk of bone fracture among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo was not observed in this meta-analysis. However, the results were limited by short duration of treatment/follow-up and low incidence of the event of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

PubMed

Lemogne, Cédric; Schuster, Jean-Pierre; Levenstein, Susan; Melchior, Maria; Nabi, Hermann; Ducimetière, Pierre; Limosin, Frédéric; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie; Consoli, Silla M

2015-02-01

Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Assessment of Ground-Water Resources in the Seacoast Region of New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.

2009-01-01

Numerical ground-water-flow models were developed for a 160-square-mile area of coastal New Hampshire to provide insight into the recharge, discharge, and availability of ground water. Population growth and increasing water use prompted concern for the sustainability of the region's ground-water resources. Previously, the regional hydraulic characteristics of the fractured bedrock aquifer in the Seacoast region of New Hampshire were not well known. In the current study, the ground-water-flow system was assessed by using two different models developed and calibrated under steady-state seasonal low-flow and transient monthly conditions to ground-water heads and base-flow discharges. The models were, (1) a steady-state model representing current (2003-04) seasonal low-flow conditions used to simulate current and future projected water use during low-flow conditions; and (2) a transient model representing current average and estimated future monthly conditions over a 2-year period used to simulate current and future projected climate-change conditions. The analysis by the ground-water-flow models indicates that the Seacoast aquifer system is a transient flow system with seasonal variations in ground-water flow. A pseudosteady- state condition exists in the fall when the steady-state model was calibrated. The average annual recharge during the period analyzed, 2000-04, was approximately 51 percent of the annual precipitation. The average net monthly recharge rate between 2003 and 2004 varied from 5.5 inches per month in March, to zero in July, and to about 0.3 inches per month in August and September. Recharge normally increases to about 2 inches per month in late fall and early winter (November through December) and declines to about 1.5 inches per month in late winter (January and February). About 50 percent of the annual recharge coincides with snowmelt in the spring (March and April), and 20 percent occurs in the late fall and early winter (November through February). Net recharge, calculated as infiltration of precipitation minus evapotranspiration, can be negative during summer months (particularly July). Regional bulk hydraulic conductivities of the bedrock aquifer were estimated to be about 0.1 to 1.0 feet per day. Estimated hydraulic conductivities in model areas representing the Rye Complex and the Kittery Formation were higher (0.5 to 1 foot per day) than in areas representing the Eliot Formation, the Exeter Diorite, and the Newburyport Complex, which have estimated hydraulic conductivities of 0.1 to 0.2 foot per day. A northeast-southwest regional anisotropy of about 5:1 was estimated in some areas of the model; this pattern is parallel to the regional structural trend and predominant fracture orientation. In areas of the model with more observation data, the upper and lower 95-percent confidence intervals for the estimated bedrock hydraulic conductivity were about half an order of magnitude above and below the parameter, respectively, and the estimated confidence intervals for estimated specific storage were within an order of magnitude of the parameter. In areas of the model with few data points, or few stresses, confidence intervals were several orders of magnitude. Estimated model parameters and their confidence intervals are a function of the conceptual model design, observation data, and the weights placed on the data. The amount of recharge that enters the bedrock aquifer at a specific point depends on (1) the location of the point in the flow field; (2) the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (or the connectivity of fractures); and (3) the stresses within the bedrock aquifer. In addition, ground water stored in unconsolidated overburden sediments, including till and other fine-grained sediments, may constitute a large percentage of the water available from storage to the bedrock aquifer. Recharge into the bedrock aquifer at a point can range from zero to nearly all the recharge at the surface dependin

Albumin treatment regimen for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome: a dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Salerno, Francesco; Navickis, Roberta J; Wilkes, Mahlon M

2015-11-25

Recommended treatment for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome consists of albumin and vasoconstrictor. The optimal albumin dose remains poorly characterized. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the impact of albumin dose on treatment outcomes. Clinical studies of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome treatment with albumin and vasoconstrictor were sought. Search terms included: hepatorenal syndrome; albumin; vasoconstrictor; terlipressin; midodrine; octreotide; noradrenaline; and norepinephrine. A meta-analysis was performed of hepatorenal syndrome reversal and survival in relation to albumin dose. Nineteen clinical studies with 574 total patients were included, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials, 8 prospective studies and 3 retrospective studies. The pooled percentage of patients achieving hepatorenal syndrome reversal was 49.5% (95% confidence interval, 40.0-59.1%). Increments of 100 g in cumulative albumin dose were accompanied by significantly increased survival (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31; p = 0.023). A non-significant increase of similar magnitude in hepatorenal syndrome reversal was also observed (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.37; p = 0.10). Expected survival rates at 30 days among patients receiving cumulative albumin doses of 200, 400 and 600 g were 43.2% (95% confidence interval, 36.4-51.3%), 51.4% (95% confidence interval, 46.3-57.1%) and 59.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.9-67.2), respectively. Neither survival nor hepatorenal syndrome reversal was significantly affected by vasoconstrictor dose or type, treatment duration, age, baseline serum creatinine, bilirubin or albumin, baseline mean arterial pressure, or study design, size or time period. This meta-analysis suggests a dose-response relationship between infused albumin and survival in patients with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome. The meta-analysis provides the best current evidence on the potential role of albumin dose selection in improving outcomes of treatment for type 1 HRS and furnishes guidance for the design of future dose-ranging studies.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

Fixed ratio combinations of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists with basal insulin: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liakopoulou, Paraskevi; Liakos, Aris; Vasilakou, Despoina; Athanasiadou, Eleni; Bekiari, Eleni; Kazakos, Kyriakos; Tsapas, Apostolos

2017-06-01

Basal insulin controls primarily fasting plasma glucose but causes hypoglycaemia and weight gain, whilst glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists induce weight loss without increasing risk for hypoglycaemia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to investigate the efficacy and safety of fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as well as conference abstracts up to December 2016. We assessed change in haemoglobin A 1c , body weight, and incidence of hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events. We included eight studies with 5732 participants in the systematic review. Switch from basal insulin to fixed ratio combinations with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist was associated with 0.72% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c [95% confidence interval -1.03 to -0.41; I 2  = 93%] and 2.35 kg reduction in body weight (95% confidence interval -3.52 to -1.19; I 2  = 93%), reducing also risk for hypoglycaemia [odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.86; I 2  = 85%] but increasing incidence of nausea (odds ratio 6.89; 95% confidence interval 3.73-12.74; I 2  = 79%). Similarly, switching patients from treatment with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist to a fixed ratio combination with basal insulin was associated with 0.94% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c (95% confidence interval -1.11 to -0.77) and an increase in body weight by 2.89 kg (95% confidence interval 2.17-3.61). Fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve glycaemic control whilst balancing out risk for hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal side effects.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

T-category remains an important prognostic factor for oropharyngeal carcinoma in the era of human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Mackenzie, P; Pryor, D; Burmeister, E; Foote, M; Panizza, B; Burmeister, B; Porceddu, S

2014-10-01

To determine prognostic factors for locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse and all-cause death in a contemporary cohort of locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. OSCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2005 and 2010 were identified from a prospective head and neck database. Patient age, gender, smoking history, human papillomavirus (HPV) status, T- and N-category, lowest involved nodal level and gross tumour volume of the primary (GTV-p) and nodal (GTV-n) disease were analysed in relation to LRR, distant relapse and death by way of univariate and multivariate analysis. In total, 130 patients were identified, 88 HPV positive, with a median follow-up of 42 months. On multivariate analysis HPV status was a significant predictor of LRR (hazard ratio 0.15; 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.51) and death (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.59) but not distant relapse (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.22-1.27). Increasing T-category was associated with a higher risk of LRR (hazard ratio 1.80 for T3/4 versus T1/2; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.99), death (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.77) and distant relapse (hazard ratio 1.35; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.83). Increasing GTV-p was associated with increased risk of distant relapse and death. N3 disease and low neck nodes were significant for LRR, distant relapse and death on univariate analysis only. Tumour HPV status was the strongest predictor of LRR and death. T-category is more predictive of distant relapse and may provide additional prognostic value for LRR and death when accounting for HPV status. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Out-of-range INR values and outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Nelson, Winnie W; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao V; Schein, Jeffrey R

2015-02-01

Although efficacious in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, many warfarin patients are sub-optimally managed. To evaluate the association of international normalized ratio control and clinical outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Adult non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients (≥18 years) initiating warfarin treatment were selected from the US Veterans Health Administration dataset between 10/2007 and 9/2012. Valid international normalized ratio values were examined from the warfarin initiation date through the earlier of the first clinical outcome, end of warfarin exposure or death. Each patient contributed multiple in-range and out-of-range time periods. The relative risk ratios of clinical outcomes associated with international normalized ratio control were estimated. 34,346 patients were included for analysis. During the warfarin exposure period, the incidence of events per 100 person-years was highest when patients had international normalized ratio <2:13.66 for acute coronary syndrome; 10.30 for ischemic stroke; 2.93 for transient ischemic attack; 1.81 for systemic embolism; and 4.55 for major bleeding. Poisson regression confirmed that during periods with international normalized ratio <2, patients were at increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (relative risk ratio: 7.9; 95 % confidence interval 6.9-9.1), ischemic stroke (relative risk ratio: 7.6; 95 % confidence interval 6.5-8.9), transient ischemic attack (relative risk ratio: 8.2; 95 % confidence interval 6.1-11.2), systemic embolism (relative risk ratio: 6.3; 95 % confidence interval 4.4-8.9) and major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 2.6; 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.0). During time periods with international normalized ratio >3, patients had significantly increased risk of major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 1.5; 95 % confidence interval 1.2-2.0). In a Veterans Health Administration non-valvular atrial fibrillation population, exposure to out-of-range international normalized ratio values was associated with significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Stroke preparedness in children: translating knowledge into behavioral intent: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ottawa, Cassandra; Sposato, Luciano A; Nabbouh, Fadl; Saposnik, Gustavo

2015-10-01

If translated into behavioral intent, improving stroke knowledge may potentially impact on better outcomes. Children are an attractive target population since they can drive familial behavioral changes. However, the impact of interventions on stroke knowledge among children is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether educational interventions targeting children improve stroke knowledge and lead to behavioral changes. We searched Ovid, PubMed, and Embase between January 2000 and December 2014. We included studies written in English reporting the number of children aged 6-15 years undergoing educational interventions on stroke and providing the results for baseline and early and late postintervention tests. We compared the proportion of correct answers between baseline, early, and late responses for two endpoints: knowledge and behavioral intent. Of the initial 58 articles found, we included nine that met the inclusion criteria. Compared with baseline tests (51·7%, 95% confidence interval 40·9-62·4), there was improvement in stroke knowledge in early (74·0%, 95% confidence interval 64·4-82·5, P = 0·002) and late (67·3%, 95% confidence interval 55·4-78·2, P = 0·027) responses. There was improvement in the early (92·1%, 95% confidence interval 86·0-96·6, P < 0·001) and late (83·9%, 95% confidence interval 73·5-92·1, P = 0·001) responses for behavioral intent compared with the baseline assessment (63·8%, 95% confidence interval 53·5-73·4). Children are a potentially attractive target population for improvement in stroke knowledge and behavioral intent, both in the short and long term. Our findings may support the implementation of large-scale stroke educational initiatives targeting children. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Borzych-Duzalka, Dagmara; Aki, T Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A

2017-01-06

Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aki, T. Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. Results In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Conclusions Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. PMID:27899416

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

Determinants of torsades de pointes in older patients with drug-associated long QT syndrome: a case-control study.

PubMed

Goutelle, Sylvain; Sidolle, Elodie; Ducher, Michel; Caron, Jacques; Timour, Quadiri; Nony, Patrice; Gouraud, Aurore

2014-08-01

Many elderly patients are routinely exposed to drugs that may prolong the cardiac QT interval and cause Torsades de pointes (TdP). However, predictors of TdP in patients with drug-associated long QT syndrome (LQTS) are not fully understood, especially in the geriatric population. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors of TdP in elderly patients with drug-associated LQTS. In this retrospective, case-control study, documented reports of drug-associated LQTS plus TdP (n = 125) and LQTS without TdP (n = 81) in patients ≥65 years of age were retrieved from the French Pharmacovigilance Database over a 10-year period. Available clinical, biological, and drug therapy data were compared in the two groups and logistic regression was performed to identify significant predictors of TdP. The uncorrected QT interval was significantly longer in patients with TdP than in patients without TdP (577 ± 79 vs. 519 ± 68 ms; p = 0.0001). The number of drugs with a known risk of TdP administered to each patient was not a predictor of arrhythmia, nor was female gender. Logistic regression analysis identified the uncorrected QT interval as the only significant predictor of TdP. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was characterized by an area under the curve of 0.77 (95 % confidence interval 0.64-0.88) and a QT cutoff of 550 ms. The uncorrected QT interval was significantly associated with the probability of TdP in elderly patients with acquired, drug-associated LQTS.

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, J. T.

1990-01-01

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Characterization of Myocardial Repolarization Reserve in Adolescent Females With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Padfield, Gareth J; Escudero, Carolina A; DeSouza, Astrid M; Steinberg, Christian; Gibbs, Karen; Puyat, Joseph H; Lam, Pei Yoong; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Sherwin, Elizabeth; Potts, James E; Sandor, George; Krahn, Andrew D

2016-02-09

Patients with anorexia nervosa exhibit abnormal myocardial repolarization and are susceptible to sudden cardiac death. Exercise testing is useful in unmasking QT prolongation in disorders associated with abnormal repolarization. We characterized QT adaptation during exercise in anorexia. Sixty-one adolescent female patients with anorexia nervosa and 45 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers performed symptom-limited cycle ergometry during 12-lead ECG monitoring. Changes in the QT interval during exercise were measured, and QT/RR-interval slopes were determined by using mixed-effects regression modeling. Patients had significantly lower body mass index than controls; however, resting heart rates and QT/QTc intervals were similar at baseline. Patients had shorter exercise times (13.7±4.5 versus 20.6±4.5 minutes; P<0.001) and lower peak heart rates (159±20 versus 184±9 beats/min; P<0.001). The mean QTc intervals were longer at peak exercise in patients (442±29 versus 422±19 ms; P<0.001). During submaximal exertion at comparable heart rates (114±6 versus 115±11 beats/min; P=0.54), the QTc interval had prolonged significantly more in patients than controls (37±28 versus 24±25 ms; P<0.016). The RR/QT slope, best described by a curvilinear relationship, was more gradual in patients than in controls (13.4; 95% confidence interval, 12.8-13.9 versus 15.8; 95% confidence interval, 15.3-16.4 ms QT change per 10% change in RR interval; P<0.001) and steepest in patients within the highest body mass index tertile versus the lowest (13.9; 95% confidence interval, 12.9-14.9 versus 12.3; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-13.3; P=0.026). Despite the absence of manifest QT prolongation, adolescent anorexic females have impaired repolarization reserve in comparison with healthy controls. Further study may identify impaired QT dynamics as a risk factor for arrhythmias in anorexia nervosa. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

The Rectangle Target Plot: A New Approach to the Graphical Presentation of Accuracy of Systems for Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose.

PubMed

Stephan, Peter; Schmid, Christina; Freckmann, Guido; Pleus, Stefan; Haug, Cornelia; Müller, Peter

2015-10-09

The measurement accuracy of systems for self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is usually analyzed by a method comparison in which the analysis results are displayed using difference plots or similar graphs. However, such plots become difficult to comprehend as the number of data points displayed increases. This article introduces a new approach, the rectangle target plot (RTP), which aims to provide a simplified and comprehensible visualization of accuracy data. The RTP is based on ISO 15197 accuracy evaluations of SMBG systems. Two-sided tolerance intervals for normally distributed data are calculated for absolute and relative differences at glucose concentrations <100 mg/dL and ≥100 mg/dL. These tolerance intervals provide an estimator of where a 90% proportion of results is found with a confidence level of 95%. Plotting these tolerance intervals generates a rectangle whose center indicates the systematic measurement difference of the investigated system relative to the comparison method. The size of the rectangle depends on the measurement variability. The RTP provides a means of displaying measurement accuracy data in a simple and comprehensible manner. The visualization is simplified by reducing the displayed information from typically 200 data points to just 1 rectangle. Furthermore, this allows data for several systems or several lots from 1 system to be displayed clearly and concisely in a single graph. © 2015 Diabetes Technology Society.

Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

Systemic right ventricular fibrosis detected by cardiovascular magnetic resonance is associated with clinical outcome, mainly new-onset atrial arrhythmia, in patients after atrial redirection surgery for transposition of the great arteries.

PubMed

Rydman, Riikka; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Ho, Siew Yen; Ernst, Sabine; Swan, Lorna; Li, Wei; Wong, Tom; Sheppard, Mary; McCarthy, Karen P; Roughton, Michael; Kilner, Philip J; Pennell, Dudley J; Babu-Narayan, Sonya V

2015-05-01

We hypothesized that fibrosis detected by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts outcomes in patients with transposition of the great arteries post atrial redirection surgery. These patients have a systemic right ventricle (RV) and are at risk of arrhythmia, premature RV failure, and sudden death. Fifty-five patients (aged 27±7 years) underwent LGE cardiovascular magnetic resonance and were followed for a median 7.8 (interquartile range, 3.8-9.6) years in a prospective single-center cohort study. RV LGE was present in 31 (56%) patients. The prespecified composite clinical end point comprised new-onset sustained tachyarrhythmia (atrial/ventricular) or decompensated heart failure admission/transplantation/death. Univariate predictors of the composite end point (n=22 patients; 19 atrial/2 ventricular tachyarrhythmia, 1 death) included RV LGE presence and extent, RV volumes/mass/ejection fraction, right atrial area, peak Vo(2), and age at repair. In bivariate analysis, RV LGE presence was independently associated with the composite end point (hazard ratio, 4.95 [95% confidence interval, 1.60-15.28]; P=0.005), and only percent predicted peak Vo(2) remained significantly associated with cardiac events after controlling for RV LGE (hazard ratio, 0.80 [95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.95]; P=0.009/5%). In 8 of 9 patients with >1 event, atrial tachyarrhythmia, itself a known risk factor for mortality, occurred first. There was agreement between location and extent of RV LGE at in vivo cardiovascular magnetic resonance and histologically documented focal RV fibrosis in an explanted heart. There was RV LGE progression in a different case restudied for clinical indications. Systemic RV LGE is strongly associated with adverse clinical outcome especially arrhythmia in transposition of the great arteries, thus LGE cardiovascular magnetic resonance should be incorporated in risk stratification of these patients. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Safety of Adding Salmeterol to Fluticasone Propionate in Children with Asthma.

PubMed

Stempel, David A; Szefler, Stanley J; Pedersen, Søren; Zeiger, Robert S; Yeakey, Anne M; Lee, Laurie A; Liu, Andrew H; Mitchell, Herman; Kral, Kenneth M; Raphiou, Ibrahim H; Prillaman, Barbara A; Buaron, Kathleen S; Yun Kirby, Suyong; Pascoe, Steven J

2016-09-01

Long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs) have been shown to increase the risk of asthma-related death among adults and the risk of asthma-related hospitalization among children. It is unknown whether the concomitant use of inhaled glucocorticoids with LABAs mitigates those risks. This trial prospectively evaluated the safety of the LABA salmeterol, added to fluticasone propionate, in a fixed-dose combination in children. We randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, children 4 to 11 years of age who required daily asthma medications and had a history of asthma exacerbations in the previous year to receive fluticasone propionate plus salmeterol or fluticasone alone for 26 weeks. The primary safety end point was the first serious asthma-related event (death, endotracheal intubation, or hospitalization), as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. The statistical design specified that noninferiority would be shown if the upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval of the hazard ratio for the primary safety end point was less than 2.675. The main efficacy end point was the first severe asthma exacerbation that led to treatment with systemic glucocorticoids, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. Among the 6208 patients, 27 patients in the fluticasone-salmeterol group and 21 in the fluticasone-alone group had a serious asthma-related event (all were hospitalizations); the hazard ratio with fluticasone-salmeterol versus fluticasone alone was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 2.27), which showed the noninferiority of fluticasone-salmeterol (P=0.006). A total of 265 patients (8.5%) in the fluticasone-salmeterol group and 309 (10.0%) in the fluticasone-alone group had a severe asthma exacerbation (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.01). In this trial involving children with asthma, salmeterol in a fixed-dose combination with fluticasone was associated with the risk of a serious asthma-related event that was similar to the risk with fluticasone alone. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; VESTRI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01462344 .).

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research. PMID:26579002

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research.

Pneumothorax size measurements on digital chest radiographs: Intra- and inter- rater reliability.

PubMed

Thelle, Andreas; Gjerdevik, Miriam; Grydeland, Thomas; Skorge, Trude D; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Bakke, Per S

2015-10-01

Detailed and reliable methods may be important for discussions on the importance of pneumothorax size in clinical decision-making. Rhea's method is widely used to estimate pneumothorax size in percent based on chest X-rays (CXRs) from three measure points. Choi's addendum is used for anterioposterior projections. The aim of this study was to examine the intrarater and interrater reliability of the Rhea and Choi method using digital CXR in the ward based PACS monitors. Three physicians examined a retrospective series of 80 digital CXRs showing pneumothorax, using Rhea and Choi's method, then repeated in a random order two weeks later. We used the analysis of variance technique by Eliasziw et al. to assess the intrarater and interrater reliability in altogether 480 estimations of pneumothorax size. Estimated pneumothorax sizes ranged between 5% and 100%. The intrarater reliability coefficient was 0.98 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval C 0.96), and the interrater reliability coefficient was 0.95 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval 0.93). This study has shown that the Rhea and Choi method for calculating pneumothorax size has high intrarater and interrater reliability. These results are valid across gender, side of pneumothorax and whether the patient is diagnosed with primary or secondary pneumothorax. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors Predictive of 90-Day Morbidity, Readmission, and Costs in Patients Undergoing Pelvic Exenteration.

PubMed

Bogani, Giorgio; Signorelli, Mauro; Ditto, Antonino; Martinelli, Fabio; Casarin, Jvan; Mosca, Lavinia; Leone Roberti Maggiore, Umberto; Chiappa, Valentina; Lorusso, Domenica; Raspagliesi, Francesco

2018-06-01

Pelvic exenteration for recurrent gynecological malignancies is characterized by a high rate of severe complications. Factors predictive of morbidity, readmission, and cost were analyzed. Data of consecutive patients undergoing pelvic exenteration between January 2007 and December 2016 were prospectively evaluated. Fifty-eight patients were included in the analysis. Anterior, posterior, and total exenterations were executed in 39 (67%), 9 (16%), and 10 (17%) patients, respectively. Ten (15.5%) severe complications occurred: 8 (20.5%), 0 (0%), and 1 (10%) after anterior, posterior, and total exenterations, respectively. Radiotherapy dosage, time between radiotherapy and surgery, and previous administration of chemotherapy did not influence 90-day complications and readmission. At multivariable analysis, albumin levels less than 3.5 g/dL (odds ratio, 16.2 [95% confidence interval, 2.85-92.8]; P = 0.002) and history of deep vein thrombosis (odds ratio, 9.6 [95% confidence interval, 0.93-98.2]; P = 0.057) were associated with 90-day morbidity. Low albumin levels independently correlated with readmission (P = 0.011). The occurrence of 90-day postoperative complications and readmission increased costs of a median of +12,500 and +6000 euros, respectively (P < 0.05). Preoperative patient selection is a key point for the reduction of postoperative complications after pelvic exenteration. Further prospective studies are warranted to improve patient selection.

Confidence intervals for single-case effect size measures based on randomization test inversion.

PubMed

Michiels, Bart; Heyvaert, Mieke; Meulders, Ann; Onghena, Patrick

2017-02-01

In the current paper, we present a method to construct nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs) for single-case effect size measures in the context of various single-case designs. We use the relationship between a two-sided statistical hypothesis test at significance level α and a 100 (1 - α) % two-sided CI to construct CIs for any effect size measure θ that contain all point null hypothesis θ values that cannot be rejected by the hypothesis test at significance level α. This method of hypothesis test inversion (HTI) can be employed using a randomization test as the statistical hypothesis test in order to construct a nonparametric CI for θ. We will refer to this procedure as randomization test inversion (RTI). We illustrate RTI in a situation in which θ is the unstandardized and the standardized difference in means between two treatments in a completely randomized single-case design. Additionally, we demonstrate how RTI can be extended to other types of single-case designs. Finally, we discuss a few challenges for RTI as well as possibilities when using the method with other effect size measures, such as rank-based nonoverlap indices. Supplementary to this paper, we provide easy-to-use R code, which allows the user to construct nonparametric CIs according to the proposed method.

[Prevalence of eating disorders in early adolescent students].

PubMed

Ruiz-Lázaro, P M; Comet, M P; Calvo, A I; Zapata, M; Cebollada, M; Trébol, L; Lobo, A

2010-01-01

To measure the prevalence of Eating Behavior Disorders (EBD) in Spanish early-adolescent students using standardized methods. A two-stage survey of prevalence of ED in a representative sample of 12 to 13 year old students in 2007 in Zaragoza (Spain). Standard evaluation: We used a two-phase cross sectional design, which involved the screening with questionnaires (EAT at a cutoff score of 20) and subsequent semi-structured interviews (SCAN) of screen-positive and screen-negative subjects. We calculated the sociodemographic characteristics, ED prevalence with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) with Confidence Interval Analysis (C.I.A.) disk version 2.0.0 (Altman et al, 2000). The study is financed by F.I.S. PI 05/2533 (Spain Health Department). In 2007 we studied 701 students seventh-grade, ages 12 to 13, girls and boys, in 9 public and private schools in Zaragoza (30 classrooms). In the second phase 164 preteens agreed to proceed with the clinical evaluation (63 at risk, high scorers; 101 selected sample not at risk). ED prevalence was 0.7% EDNOS F 50.9 (CI 95%: 0.3%-1.7%). The ICD-10 point prevalence rates of ED population in Spanish preteen students is similar to those reported for other developed countries. The prevalence of subclinical ED is substantially higher than that of full-syndrome.

Methylphenidate bioavailability in adults when an extended-release multiparticulate formulation is administered sprinkled on food or as an intact capsule.

PubMed

Pentikis, Helen S; Simmons, Roy D; Benedict, Michael F; Hatch, Simon J

2002-04-01

To determine the single-dose bioavailability of 20-mg Metadate CD (methylphenidate HCI, USP) Extended-Release Capsules sprinkled onto 1 level tablespoon (15 mL) of applesauce relative to an intact capsule under fasted conditions in healthy adults. This was a single-center, open-label, single-dose, randomized, two-way crossover study with a 6-day washout period between doses, in healthy male and female subjects (N= 26), aged 21-40 years. Plasma concentration-time data for methylphenidate were used to calculate the pharmacokinetic parameters for each treatment. The pharmacokinetic profile for Metadate CD exhibited biphasic release characteristics with a sharp initial slope and a second rising portion. For Cmax (maximum observed concentration), AUC(0-infinity) (area under the plasma concentration curve from time 0 to infinity) and AUC(0-infinity) (area under the plasma concentration curve from time 0 to the last measurable time point), the geometric least squares mean ratios and 90% confidence intervals were within the 80% to 125% confidence interval for bioequivalence. Adverse events were similar to those reported for methylphenidate. The bioavailability of methylphenidate was not altered when Metadate CD capsules were administered by sprinkling their contents onto a small amount of applesauce.

Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

2013-04-01

We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

Reliable change, sensitivity, and specificity of a multidimensional concussion assessment battery: implications for caution in clinical practice.

PubMed

Register-Mihalik, Johna K; Guskiewicz, Kevin M; Mihalik, Jason P; Schmidt, Julianne D; Kerr, Zachary Y; McCrea, Michael A

2013-01-01

To provide reliable change confidence intervals for common clinical concussion measures using a healthy sample of collegiate athletes and to apply these reliable change parameters to a sample of concussed collegiate athletes. Two independent samples were included in the study and evaluated on common clinical measures of concussion. The healthy sample included male, collegiate football student-athletes (n = 38) assessed at 2 time points. The concussed sample included college-aged student-athletes (n = 132) evaluated before and after a concussion. Outcome measures included symptom severity scores, Automated Neuropsychological Assessment Metrics throughput scores, and Sensory Organization Test composite scores. Application of the reliable change parameters suggests that a small percentage of concussed participants were impaired on each measure. We identified a low sensitivity of the entire battery (all measures combined) of 50% but high specificity of 96%. Clinicians should be trained in understanding clinical concussion measures and should be aware of evidence suggesting the multifaceted battery is more sensitive than any single measure. Clinicians should be cautioned that sensitivity to balance and neurocognitive impairments was low for each individual measure. Applying the confidence intervals to our injured sample suggests that these measures do not adequately identify postconcussion impairments when used in isolation.

Interpreting “statistical hypothesis testing” results in clinical research

PubMed Central

Sarmukaddam, Sanjeev B.

2012-01-01

Difference between “Clinical Significance and Statistical Significance” should be kept in mind while interpreting “statistical hypothesis testing” results in clinical research. This fact is already known to many but again pointed out here as philosophy of “statistical hypothesis testing” is sometimes unnecessarily criticized mainly due to failure in considering such distinction. Randomized controlled trials are also wrongly criticized similarly. Some scientific method may not be applicable in some peculiar/particular situation does not mean that the method is useless. Also remember that “statistical hypothesis testing” is not for decision making and the field of “decision analysis” is very much an integral part of science of statistics. It is not correct to say that “confidence intervals have nothing to do with confidence” unless one understands meaning of the word “confidence” as used in context of confidence interval. Interpretation of the results of every study should always consider all possible alternative explanations like chance, bias, and confounding. Statistical tests in inferential statistics are, in general, designed to answer the question “How likely is the difference found in random sample(s) is due to chance” and therefore limitation of relying only on statistical significance in making clinical decisions should be avoided. PMID:22707861

Evaluation of the angiotensin II receptor blocker azilsartan medoxomil in African-American patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Johnson, Wallace; White, William B; Sica, Domenic; Bakris, George L; Weber, Michael A; Handley, Alison; Perez, Alfonso; Cao, Charlie; Kupfer, Stuart; Saunders, Elijah B

2017-07-01

The efficacy and safety of azilsartan medoxomil (AZL-M) were evaluated in African-American patients with hypertension in a 6-week, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, for which the primary end point was change from baseline in 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (BP). There were 413 patients, with a mean age of 52 years, 57% women, and baseline 24-hour BP of 146/91 mm Hg. Treatment differences in 24-hour systolic BP between AZL-M 40 mg and placebo (-5.0 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, -8.0 to -2.0) and AZL-M 80 mg and placebo (-7.8 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, -10.7 to -4.9) were significant (P≤.001 vs placebo for both comparisons). Changes in the clinic BPs were similar to the ambulatory BP results. Incidence rates of adverse events were comparable among the treatment groups, including those of a serious nature. In African-American patients with hypertension, AZL-M significantly reduced ambulatory and clinic BPs in a dose-dependent manner and was well tolerated. © The Authors and Takeda Development Centers, Americas, Inc and Takeda Pharmaceuticals International. The Journal of Clinical Hypertension published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Correlates of waterpipe smoking among Iranian university students and the role of religiosity.

PubMed

Nabipour, Amir Reza; Alizadeh, Afsaneh; Saadat-Hosseini, Mahboobeh; Mansouri, Zahra; Shamsoddini, Latifeh; Nakhaee, Nouzar

2016-08-01

Waterpipe smoking among youth and adolescents in Iran has gained in popularity. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between waterpipe smoking and different dimensions of religiosity in a sample of students attending two major universities in South East Iran. A total of 682 students completed a waterpipe and cigarette smoking questionnaire along with the Duke University Religion Index. The lifetime prevalence of dual cigarette and waterpipe use was 48.3%, with prevalence of current use (within the last 30 days) of 24.9%. The proportions of lifetime and current waterpipe-only users were 27.0% and 18.8%, respectively. Students who participated more often in private religious activities were less likely to report engaging in waterpipe smoking (odds ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.98). A higher level of attendance of religious services was negatively associated with dual cigarette and waterpipe smoking (odds ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.93). Waterpipe-only use was significantly higher among males, students who had lower grade point averages, those who reported having a close friend or a family member who was a waterpipe smoker. To conclude, it is possible that religious observance may have a protective role in lowering waterpipe usage among Iranian university students.

The recent and future health burden of air pollution apportioned across U.S. sectors.

PubMed

Fann, Neal; Fulcher, Charles M; Baker, Kirk

2013-04-16

Recent risk assessments have characterized the overall burden of recent PM2.5 and ozone levels on public health, but generally not the variability of these impacts over time or by sector. Using photochemical source apportionment modeling and a health impact function, we attribute PM2.5 and ozone air quality levels, population exposure and health burden to 23 industrial point, area, mobile and international emission sectors in the Continental U.S. in 2005 and 2016. Our modeled policy scenarios account for a suite of emission control requirements affecting many of these sectors. Between these two years, the number of PM2.5 and ozone-related deaths attributable to power plants and mobile sources falls from about 68,000 (90% confidence interval from 48,000 to 87,000) to about 36,000 (90% confidence intervals from 26,000 to 47,000). Area source mortality risk grows slightly between 2005 and 2016, due largely to population growth. Uncertainties relating to the timing and magnitude of the emission reductions may affect the size of these estimates. The detailed sector-level estimates of the size and distribution of mortality and morbidity risk suggest that the air pollution mortality burden has fallen over time but that many sectors continue to pose a substantial risk to human health.

Quality-of-life outcomes with a disodium EDTA chelation regimen for coronary disease: results from the trial to assess chelation therapy randomized trial.

PubMed

Mark, Daniel B; Anstrom, Kevin J; Clapp-Channing, Nancy E; Knight, J David; Boineau, Robin; Goertz, Christine; Rozema, Theodore C; Liu, Diane M; Nahin, Richard L; Rosenberg, Yves; Drisko, Jeanne; Lee, Kerry L; Lamas, Gervasio A

2014-07-01

The National Institutes of Health.funded Trial to Assess Chelation Therapy (TACT) randomized 1708 stablecoronary disease patients aged .50 years who were .6 months post.myocardial infarction (2003.2010) to 40 infusions ofa multicomponent EDTA chelation solution or placebo. Chelation reduced the primary composite end point of mortality,recurrent myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for angina (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95%confidence interval, 0.69.0.99; P=0.035). In a randomly selected subset of 911 patients, we prospectively collected a battery of quality-of-life(QOL) instruments at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months after randomization. The prespecified primary QOL measures were the Duke Activity Status Index (Table I in the Data Supplement) and the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 Mental Health Inventory-5. All comparisons were by intention to treat. Baseline clinical and QOL variables were well balanced in the 451 patients randomized to chelation and in the 460 patients randomized to placebo. The Duke Activity Status Index improved in both groups during the first 6 months of therapy, but we found no evidence for a treatment-related difference (mean difference [chelation.placebo] during follow-up, 0.9 [95% confidence interval, .0.7 to 2.6; P=0.27]).There was no statistically significant evidence of a treatment-related difference in the Mental Health Inventory-5 during follow-up (mean difference, 1.0; 95% confidence interval, .0.1 to 2.0; P=0.08). None of the secondary QOL measures showed a consistent treatment-related difference. In stable, predominantly asymptomatic coronary disease patients with a history of myocardial infarction,EDTA chelation therapy did not have a detectable effect on QOL during 2 years of follow-up. URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00044213.

Field Validation of the Los Angeles Motor Scale as a Tool for Paramedic Assessment of Stroke Severity.

PubMed

Kim, Joon-Tae; Chung, Pil-Wook; Starkman, Sidney; Sanossian, Nerses; Stratton, Samuel J; Eckstein, Marc; Pratt, Frank D; Conwit, Robin; Liebeskind, David S; Sharma, Latisha; Restrepo, Lucas; Tenser, May-Kim; Valdes-Sueiras, Miguel; Gornbein, Jeffrey; Hamilton, Scott; Saver, Jeffrey L

2017-02-01

The Los Angeles Motor Scale (LAMS) is a 3-item, 0- to 10-point motor stroke-deficit scale developed for prehospital use. We assessed the convergent, divergent, and predictive validity of the LAMS when performed by paramedics in the field at multiple sites in a large and diverse geographic region. We analyzed early assessment and outcome data prospectively gathered in the FAST-MAG trial (Field Administration of Stroke Therapy-Magnesium phase 3) among patients with acute cerebrovascular disease (cerebral ischemia and intracranial hemorrhage) within 2 hours of onset, transported by 315 ambulances to 60 receiving hospitals. Among 1632 acute cerebrovascular disease patients (age 70±13 years, male 57.5%), time from onset to prehospital LAMS was median 30 minutes (interquartile range 20-50), onset to early postarrival (EPA) LAMS was 145 minutes (interquartile range 119-180), and onset to EPA National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was 150 minutes (interquartile range 120-180). Between the prehospital and EPA assessments, LAMS scores were stable in 40.5%, improved in 37.6%, and worsened in 21.9%. In tests of convergent validity, against the EPA National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, correlations were r=0.49 for the prehospital LAMS and r=0.89 for the EPA LAMS. Prehospital LAMS scores did diverge from the prehospital Glasgow Coma Scale, r=-0.22. Predictive accuracy (adjusted C statistics) for nondisabled 3-month outcome was as follows: prehospital LAMS, 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.78); EPA LAMS, 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.87); and EPA National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.88). In this multicenter, prospective, prehospital study, the LAMS showed good to excellent convergent, divergent, and predictive validity, further establishing it as a validated instrument to characterize stroke severity in the field. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

PREDICT: a diagnostic accuracy study of a tool for predicting mortality within one year: who should have an advance healthcare directive?

PubMed

Richardson, Philip; Greenslade, Jaimi; Shanmugathasan, Sulochana; Doucet, Katherine; Widdicombe, Neil; Chu, Kevin; Brown, Anthony

2015-01-01

CARING is a screening tool developed to identify patients who have a high likelihood of death in 1 year. This study sought to validate a modified CARING tool (termed PREDICT) using a population of patients presenting to the Emergency Department. In total, 1000 patients aged over 55 years who were admitted to hospital via the Emergency Department between January and June 2009 were eligible for inclusion in this study. Data on the six prognostic indicators comprising PREDICT were obtained retrospectively from patient records. One-year mortality data were obtained from the State Death Registry. Weights were applied to each PREDICT criterion, and its final score ranged from 0 to 44. Receiver operator characteristic analyses and diagnostic accuracy statistics were used to assess the accuracy of PREDICT in identifying 1-year mortality. The sample comprised 976 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 71 years (62-81 years) and a 1-year mortality of 23.4%. In total, 50% had ≥1 PREDICT criteria with a 1-year mortality of 40.4%. Receiver operator characteristic analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.89). Using a cut-off of 13 points, PREDICT had a 95.3% (95% confidence interval: 93.6-96.6) specificity and 53.9% (95% confidence interval: 47.5-60.3) sensitivity for predicting 1-year mortality. PREDICT was simpler than the CARING criteria and identified 158 patients per 1000 admitted who could benefit from advance care planning. PREDICT was successfully applied to the Australian healthcare system with findings similar to the original CARING study conducted in the United States. This tool could improve end-of-life care by identifying who should have advance care planning or an advance healthcare directive. © The Author(s) 2014.

Posterior interosseous nerve localization within the proximal forearm - a patient normalized parameter.

PubMed

Kamineni, Srinath; Norgren, Crystal R; Davidson, Evan M; Kamineni, Ellora P; Deane, Andrew S

2017-04-18

To provide a "patient-normalized" parameter in the proximal forearm. Sixty-three cadaveric upper extremities from thirty-five cadavers were studied. A muscle splitting approach was utilized to locate the posterior interosseous nerve (PIN) at the point where it emerges from beneath the supinator. The supinator was carefully incised to expose the midpoint length of the nerve as it passes into the forearm while preserving the associated fascial connections, thereby preserving the relationship of the nerve with the muscle. We measured the transepicondylar distance (TED), PIN distance in the forearm's neutral rotation position, pronation position, supination position, and the nerve width. Two individuals performed measurements using a digital caliper with inter-observer and intra-observer blinding. The results were analyzed with the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for paired samples. In pronation, the PIN was within two confidence intervals of 1.0 TED in 95% of cases (range 0.7-1.3 TED); in neutral, within two confidence intervals of 0.84 TED in 95% of cases (range 0.5-1.1 TED); in supination, within two confidence intervals of 0.72 TED in 95% of cases (range 0.5-0.9 TED). The mean PIN distance from the lateral epicondyle was 100% of TED in a pronated forearm, 84% in neutral, and 72% in supination. Predictive accuracy was highest in supination; in all cases the majority of specimens (90.47%-95.23%) are within 2 cm of the forearm position-specific percentage of TED. When comparing right to left sides for TEDs with the signed Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for paired samples as well as a significance test (with normal distribution), the P -value was 0.0357 (significance - 0.05) indicating a significant difference between the two sides. This "patient normalized" parameter localizes the PIN crossing a line drawn between the lateral epicondyle and the radial styloid. Accurate PIN localization will aid in diagnosis, injections, and surgical approaches.

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor Use and Major Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Treated With the Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4 Inhibitor Alogliptin.

PubMed

White, William B; Wilson, Craig A; Bakris, George L; Bergenstal, Richard M; Cannon, Christopher P; Cushman, William C; Heller, Simon K; Mehta, Cyrus R; Nissen, Steven E; Zannad, Faiez; Kupfer, Stuart

2016-09-01

Activation of the sympathetic nervous system when there is dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibition in the presence of high-dose angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition has led to concerns of potential increases in cardiovascular events when the 2 classes of drugs are coadministered. We evaluated cardiovascular outcomes from the EXAMINE (Examination of Cardiovascular Outcomes With Alogliptin versus Standard of Care) trial according to ACE inhibitor use. Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and a recent acute coronary syndrome were randomly assigned to receive the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor alogliptin or placebo added to existing antihyperglycemic and cardiovascular prophylactic therapies. Risks of adjudicated cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke, and hospitalized heart failure were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model in patients according to ACE inhibitor use and dose. There were 3323 (62%) EXAMINE patients treated with an ACE inhibitor (1681 on alogliptin and 1642 on placebo). The composite rates of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke were comparable for alogliptin and placebo with ACE inhibitor (11.4% versus 11.8%; hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.19; P=0.76) and without ACE inhibitor use (11.2% versus 11.9%; hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-1.21; P=0.62). Composite rates for cardiovascular death and heart failure in patients on ACE inhibitor occurred in 6.8% of patients on alogliptin versus 7.2% on placebo (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.2; P=0.57). There were no differences for these end points nor for blood pressure or heart rate in patients on higher doses of ACE inhibitor. Cardiovascular outcomes were similar for alogliptin and placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary disease treated with ACE inhibitors. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Enhanced Estimates of the Influenza Vaccination Effect in Preventing Mortality

PubMed Central

Castilla, Jesús; Guevara, Marcela; Martínez-Baz, Iván; Ezpeleta, Carmen; Delfrade, Josu; Irisarri, Fátima; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi

2015-01-01

Abstract Mortality is a major end-point in the evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness. However, this effect is not well known, since most previous studies failed to show good control of biases. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing all-cause mortality in community-dwelling seniors. Since 2009, a population-based cohort study using healthcare databases has been conducted in Navarra, Spain. In 2 late influenza seasons, 2011/2012 and 2012/2013, all-cause mortality in the period January to May was compared between seniors (65 years or over) who received the trivalent influenza vaccine and those who were unvaccinated, adjusting for demographics, major chronic conditions, dependence, previous hospitalization, and pneumococcal vaccination. The cohort included 103,156 seniors in the 2011/2012 season and 105,140 in the 2012/2013 season (58% vaccinated). Seniors vaccinated in the previous season who discontinued vaccination (6% of the total) had excess mortality and were excluded to prevent frailty bias. The final analysis included 80,730 person-years and 2778 deaths. Vaccinated seniors had 16% less all-cause mortality than those unvaccinated (adjusted rate ratio [RR] = 0.84; 95% confidence interval 0.76–0.93). This association disappeared in the post-influenza period (adjusted RR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.85–1.09). A similar comparison did not find an association in January to May of the 2009/2010 pandemic season (adjusted RR = 0.98; 95% confidence interval 0.84–1.14), when no effect of the seasonal vaccine was expected. On average, 1 death was prevented for every 328 seniors vaccinated: 1 for every 649 in the 65 to 74 year age group and 1 for every 251 among those aged 75 and over. These results suggest a moderate preventive effect and a high potential impact of the seasonal influenza vaccine against all-cause mortality. This reinforces the recommendation of annual influenza vaccination in seniors. PMID:26222861

Blood pressure and heart rate response to posteriorly directed pressure applied to the cervical spine in young, pain-free individuals: a randomized, repeated-measures, double-blind, placebo-controlled study.

PubMed

Yung, Emmanuel; Wong, Michael; Williams, Haddie; Mache, Kyle

2014-08-01

Randomized clinical trial. Objectives To compare the blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) response of healthy volunteers to posteriorly directed (anterior-to-posterior [AP]) pressure applied to the cervical spine versus placebo. Manual therapists employ cervical spine AP mobilizations for various cervical-shoulder pain conditions. However, there is a paucity of literature describing the procedure, cardiovascular response, and safety profile. Thirty-nine (25 female) healthy participants (mean ± SD age, 24.7 ± 1.9 years) were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 groups. Group 1 received a placebo, consisting of light touch applied to the right C6 costal process. Group 2 received AP pressure at the same location. Blood pressure and HR were measured prior to, during, and after the application of AP pressure. One-way analysis of variance and paired-difference statistics were used for data analysis. There was no statistically significant difference between groups for mean systolic BP, mean diastolic BP, and mean HR (P >.05) for all time points. Within-group comparisons indicated statistically significant differences between baseline and post-AP pressure HR (-2.8 bpm; 95% confidence interval: -4.6, -1.1) and between baseline and post-AP pressure systolic BP (-2.4 mmHg; 95% confidence interval: -3.7, -1.0) in the AP group, and between baseline and postplacebo systolic BP (-2.6 mmHg; 95% confidence interval: -4.2, -1.0) in the placebo group. No participants reported any adverse reactions or side effects within 24 hours of testing. AP pressure caused a statistically significant physiologic response that resulted in a minor drop in HR (without causing asystole or vasodepression) after the procedure, whereas this cardiovascular change did not occur for those in the placebo group. Within both groups, there was a small but statistically significant reduction in systolic BP following the procedure.

APOL1 Nephropathy Risk Variants and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Events in Community-Dwelling Black Adults.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Orlando M; Irvin, Marguerite R; Chaudhary, Ninad S; Cushman, Mary; Zakai, Neil A; David, Victor A; Limou, Sophie; Pamir, Nathalie; Reiner, Alex P; Naik, Rakhi P; Sale, Michele M; Safford, Monika M; Hyacinth, Hyacinth I; Judd, Suzanne E; Kopp, Jeffrey B; Winkler, Cheryl A

2018-06-01

APOL1 renal risk variants are strongly associated with chronic kidney disease in Black adults, but reported associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been conflicting. We examined associations of APOL1 with incident coronary heart disease (n=323), ischemic stroke (n=331), and the composite CVD outcome (n=500) in 10 605 Black participants of the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke). Primary analyses compared individuals with APOL1 high-risk genotypes to APOL1 low-risk genotypes in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for CVD risk factors and African ancestry. APOL1 high-risk participants were younger and more likely to have albuminuria at baseline than APOL1 low-risk participants. The risk of incident stroke, coronary heart disease, or composite CVD end point did not significantly differ by APOL1 genotype status in multivariable models. The association of APOL1 genotype with incident composite CVD differed by diabetes mellitus status ( P interaction =0.004). In those without diabetes mellitus, APOL1 high-risk genotypes associated with greater risk of incident composite CVD (hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.47) compared with those with APOL1 low-risk genotypes in multivariable adjusted models. This latter association was driven by ischemic strokes (hazard ratio, 2.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-4.07), in particular, those related to small vessel disease (hazard ratio, 5.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.55-16.56). There was no statistically significant association of APOL1 genotypes with incident CVD in subjects with diabetes mellitus. The APOL1 high-risk genotype was associated with higher stroke risk in individuals without but not those with chronic kidney disease in fully adjusted models. APOL1 high-risk status is associated with CVD events in community-dwelling Black adults without diabetes mellitus. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Drug-eluting stents versus bare-metal stents for off-label indications: a propensity score-matched outcome study.

PubMed

Austin, David; Oldroyd, Keith G; McConnachie, Alex; Slack, Rachel; Eteiba, Hany; Flapan, Andrew D; Jennings, Kevin P; Northcote, Robin J; Pell, Alastair C H; Starkey, Ian R; Pell, Jill P

2008-08-01

The US Food and Drug Administration recently concluded that data on off-label drug-eluting stent (DES) safety are limited. However, in actual clinical practice, DES are often used for off-label indications, and observational studies demonstrate that complications are higher when compared with on-label use. We aimed to determine whether clinical outcomes differ after DES and bare-metal stent implantation in a patient cohort defined by DES off-label indications. We used the national revascularization registry in Scotland to identify patients who underwent coronary stenting for an off-label indication between January 2003 and September 2005. Individual-level linkage to comprehensive national admission and death databases was used to ascertain the end points of death, myocardial infarction, and target-vessel revascularization. We calculated propensity scores on the basis of clinical, demographic, and angiographic variables and matched DES to bare-metal stents on a 1:1 basis. The final study population consisted of 1642 patients, well matched for important covariables at baseline. Event-free survival was calculated over 24 months with the Kaplan-Meier method. All-cause death was more common after bare-metal stent implantation during follow-up (7.7% versus 6.6%; hazard ratio 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.99; P=0.04). No difference in the rates of myocardial infarction were noted (7.3% versus 7.5%; hazard ratio 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.69 to 1.54; P=0.92). Target-vessel revascularization was reduced in patients treated with DES (13.9% versus 10.7%; hazard ratio 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.49 to 0.93; P=0.02). At 24 months, patients treated with DES for off-label indications had lower rates of death and target-vessel revascularization and similar rates of myocardial infarction, as compared with patients treated with bare-metal stents.

The risk for type B aortic dissection in Marfan syndrome.

PubMed

den Hartog, Alexander W; Franken, Romy; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Timmermans, Janneke; Scholte, Arthur J; van den Berg, Maarten P; de Waard, Vivian; Pals, Gerard; Mulder, Barbara J M; Groenink, Maarten

2015-01-27

Aortic dissections involving the descending aorta are a major clinical problem in patients with Marfan syndrome. The purpose of this study was to identify clinical parameters associated with type B aortic dissection and to develop a risk model to predict type B aortic dissection in patients with Marfan syndrome. Patients with the diagnosis of Marfan syndrome and magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomographic imaging of the aorta were followed for a median of 6 years for the occurrence of type B dissection or the combined end point of type B aortic dissection, distal aortic surgery, and death. A model using various clinical parameters as well as genotyping was developed to predict the risk for type B dissection in patients with Marfan syndrome. Between 1998 and 2013, 54 type B aortic dissections occurred in 600 patients with Marfan syndrome (mean age 36 ± 14 years, 52% male). Independent variables associated with type B aortic dissection were prior prophylactic aortic surgery (hazard ratio: 2.1; 95% confidence interval: 1.2 to 3.8; p = 0.010) and a proximal descending aorta diameter ≥27 mm (hazard ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1 to 4.3; p = 0.020). In the risk model, the 10-year occurrence of type B aortic dissection in low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients was 6%, 19%, and 34%, respectively. Angiotensin II receptor blocker therapy was associated with fewer type B aortic dissections (hazard ratio: 0.3; 95% confidence interval: 0.1 to 0.9; p = 0.030). Patients with Marfan syndrome with prior prophylactic aortic surgery are at substantial risk for type B aortic dissection, even when the descending aorta is only slightly dilated. Angiotensin II receptor blocker therapy may be protective in the prevention of type B aortic dissections. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements have a high false-positive rate in diagnosing compartment syndrome?

PubMed

Whitney, Augusta; O'Toole, Robert V; Hui, Emily; Sciadini, Marcus F; Pollak, Andrew N; Manson, Theodore T; Eglseder, W Andrew; Andersen, Romney C; Lebrun, Christopher; Doro, Christopher; Nascone, Jason W

2014-02-01

Intracompartmental pressure measurements are frequently used in the diagnosis of compartment syndrome, particularly in patients with equivocal or limited physical examination findings. Little clinical work has been done to validate the clinical use of intracompartmental pressures or identify associated false-positive rates. We hypothesized that diagnosis of compartment syndrome based on one-time pressure measurements alone is associated with a high false-positive rate. Forty-eight consecutive patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not suspected of having compartment syndrome based on physical examinations were prospectively enrolled. Pressure measurements were obtained in all four compartments at a single point in time immediately after induction of anesthesia using a pressure-monitoring device. Preoperative and intraoperative blood pressure measurements were recorded. The same standardized examination was performed by the attending surgeon preoperatively, postoperatively, and during clinical follow-up for 6 months to assess clinical evidence of acute or late compartment syndrome. No clinical evidence of compartment syndrome was observed postoperatively or during follow-up until 6 months after injury. Using the accepted criteria of delta P of 30 mm Hg from preoperative diastolic blood pressure, 35% of cases (n = 16; 95% confidence interval, 21.5-48.5%) met criteria for compartment syndrome. Raising the threshold to delta P of 20 mm Hg reduced the false-positive rate to 24% (n = 11; 95% confidence interval, 11.1-34.9%). Twenty-two percent (n = 10; 95% confidence interval, 9.5-32.5%) exceeded absolute pressure of 45 mm Hg. A 35% false-positive rate was found for the diagnosis of compartment syndrome in patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not thought to have compartment syndrome by using currently accepted criteria for diagnosis based solely on one-time compartment pressure measurements. Our data suggest that reliance on one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements can overestimate the rate of compartment syndrome and raise concern regarding unnecessary fasciotomies. Diagnostic study, level II.

Posterior interosseous nerve localization within the proximal forearm - a patient normalized parameter

PubMed Central

Kamineni, Srinath; Norgren, Crystal R; Davidson, Evan M; Kamineni, Ellora P; Deane, Andrew S

2017-01-01

AIM To provide a “patient-normalized” parameter in the proximal forearm. METHODS Sixty-three cadaveric upper extremities from thirty-five cadavers were studied. A muscle splitting approach was utilized to locate the posterior interosseous nerve (PIN) at the point where it emerges from beneath the supinator. The supinator was carefully incised to expose the midpoint length of the nerve as it passes into the forearm while preserving the associated fascial connections, thereby preserving the relationship of the nerve with the muscle. We measured the transepicondylar distance (TED), PIN distance in the forearm’s neutral rotation position, pronation position, supination position, and the nerve width. Two individuals performed measurements using a digital caliper with inter-observer and intra-observer blinding. The results were analyzed with the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for paired samples. RESULTS In pronation, the PIN was within two confidence intervals of 1.0 TED in 95% of cases (range 0.7-1.3 TED); in neutral, within two confidence intervals of 0.84 TED in 95% of cases (range 0.5-1.1 TED); in supination, within two confidence intervals of 0.72 TED in 95% of cases (range 0.5-0.9 TED). The mean PIN distance from the lateral epicondyle was 100% of TED in a pronated forearm, 84% in neutral, and 72% in supination. Predictive accuracy was highest in supination; in all cases the majority of specimens (90.47%-95.23%) are within 2 cm of the forearm position-specific percentage of TED. When comparing right to left sides for TEDs with the signed Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for paired samples as well as a significance test (with normal distribution), the P-value was 0.0357 (significance - 0.05) indicating a significant difference between the two sides. CONCLUSION This “patient normalized” parameter localizes the PIN crossing a line drawn between the lateral epicondyle and the radial styloid. Accurate PIN localization will aid in diagnosis, injections, and surgical approaches. PMID:28473958

Predictors of Functional Dependence Despite Successful Revascularization in Large-Vessel Occlusion Strokes

PubMed Central

Shi, Zhong-Song; Liebeskind, David S.; Xiang, Bin; Ge, Sijian Grace; Feng, Lei; Albers, Gregory W.; Budzik, Ronald; Devlin, Thomas; Gupta, Rishi; Jansen, Olav; Jovin, Tudor G.; Killer-Oberpfalzer, Monika; Lutsep, Helmi L.; Macho, Juan; Nogueira, Raul G.; Rymer, Marilyn; Smith, Wade S.; Wahlgren, Nils; Duckwiler, Gary R.

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose High revascularization rates in large-vessel occlusion strokes treated by mechanical thrombectomy are not always associated with good clinical outcomes. We evaluated predictors of functional dependence despite successful revascularization among patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with thrombectomy. Methods We analyzed the pooled data from the Multi Mechanical Embolus Removal in Cerebral Ischemia (MERCI), Thrombectomy Revascularization of Large Vessel Occlusions in Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREVO), and TREVO 2 trials. Successful revascularization was defined as thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score 2b or 3. Functional dependence was defined as a score of 3 to 6 on the modified Rankin Scale at 3 months. We assessed relationship of demographic, clinical, angiographic characteristics, and hemorrhage with functional dependence despite successful revascularization. Results Two hundred and twenty-eight patients with successful revascularization had clinical outcome follow-up. The rates of functional dependence with endovascular success were 48.6% for Trevo thrombectomy and 58.0% for Merci thrombectomy. Age (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.06 per 1-year increase), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.15 per 1-point increase), and symptom onset to endovascular treatment time (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–1.22 per 30-minute delay) were predictors of functional dependence despite successful revascularization. Symptom onset to reperfusion time beyond 5 hours was associated with functional dependence. All subjects with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage had functional dependence. Conclusions One half of patients with successful mechanical thrombectomy do not have good outcomes. Age, severe neurological deficits, and delayed endovascular treatment were associated with functional dependence despite successful revascularization. Our data support efforts to minimize delays to endovascular therapy in patients with acute ischemic stroke to improve outcomes. PMID:24876082

Mediterranean Diet, Alzheimer Disease, and Vascular Mediation

PubMed Central

Scarmeas, Nikolaos; Stern, Yaakov; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, Jose A.

2011-01-01

Objectives To examine the association between the Mediterranean diet (MeDi) and Alzheimer disease (AD) in a different AD population and to investigate possible mediation by vascular pathways. Design, Setting, Patients, and Main Outcome Measures A case-control study nested within a community-based cohort in New York, NY. Adherence to the MeDi (0- to 9-point scale with higher scores indicating higher adherence) was the main predictor of AD status (194 patients with AD vs 1790 nondemented subjects) in logistic regression models that were adjusted for cohort, age, sex, ethnicity, education, apolipoprotein E genotype, caloric intake, smoking, medical comorbidity index, and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). We investigated whether there was attenuation of the association between MeDi and AD when vascular variables (stroke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, heart disease, lipid levels) were simultaneously introduced in the models (which would constitute evidence of mediation). Results Higher adherence to the MeDi was associated with lower risk for AD (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.67–0.87; P<.001). Compared with subjects in the lowest MeDi tertile, subjects in the middle MeDi tertile had an odds ratio of 0.47 (95% confidence interval, 0.29–0.76) and those at the highest tertile an odds ratio of 0.32 (95% confidence interval, 0.17–0.59) for AD (P for trend <.001). Introduction of the vascular variables in the model did not change the magnitude of the association. Conclusions We note once more that higher adherence to the MeDi is associated with a reduced risk for AD. The association does not seem to be mediated by vascular comorbidity. This could be the result of either other biological mechanisms (oxidative or inflammatory) being implicated or measurement error of the vascular variables. PMID:17030648

Using structural equation modeling for network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tu, Yu-Kang; Wu, Yun-Chun

2017-07-14

Network meta-analysis overcomes the limitations of traditional pair-wise meta-analysis by incorporating all available evidence into a general statistical framework for simultaneous comparisons of several treatments. Currently, network meta-analyses are undertaken either within the Bayesian hierarchical linear models or frequentist generalized linear mixed models. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method originally developed for modeling causal relations among observed and latent variables. As random effect is explicitly modeled as a latent variable in SEM, it is very flexible for analysts to specify complex random effect structure and to make linear and nonlinear constraints on parameters. The aim of this article is to show how to undertake a network meta-analysis within the statistical framework of SEM. We used an example dataset to demonstrate the standard fixed and random effect network meta-analysis models can be easily implemented in SEM. It contains results of 26 studies that directly compared three treatment groups A, B and C for prevention of first bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. We also showed that a new approach to network meta-analysis based on the technique of unrestricted weighted least squares (UWLS) method can also be undertaken using SEM. For both the fixed and random effect network meta-analysis, SEM yielded similar coefficients and confidence intervals to those reported in the previous literature. The point estimates of two UWLS models were identical to those in the fixed effect model but the confidence intervals were greater. This is consistent with results from the traditional pairwise meta-analyses. Comparing to UWLS model with common variance adjusted factor, UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor has greater confidence intervals when the heterogeneity was larger in the pairwise comparison. The UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor reflects the difference in heterogeneity within each comparison. SEM provides a very flexible framework for univariate and multivariate meta-analysis, and its potential as a powerful tool for advanced meta-analysis is still to be explored.

Effect of rosuvastatin on the echolucency of the common carotid intima-media in low-risk individuals: the METEOR trial.

PubMed

Lind, Lars; Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M; Palmer, Mike K; Grobbee, Diederick E; Crouse, John R; O'Leary, Daniel H; Evans, Gregory W; Raichlen, Joel S; Bots, Michiel L

2012-10-01

The echolucency of the carotid intima-media is related to increased cardiovascular risk factor levels, morbidity, and mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of statins on the echolucency of the common carotid intima-media in a low-risk population. Data from the Measuring Effects on Intima-Media Thickness: An Evaluation of Rosuvastatin study were used. Ultrasound images from the far walls of the left and right common carotid arteries were used for evaluation of the echolucency of the carotid intima-media, measured by grayscale median (GSM). Low GSM values reflect echolucent structures, whereas high values reflect echogenic structures. The primary end point was the difference in the annual rate of change in GSM between rosuvastatin and placebo. Two-year change in GSM did not significantly differ between rosuvastatin and placebo in the total population, with a mean difference in the rate of change in GSM of 1.13 (95% confidence interval, -1.00 to 3.25). The effect of rosuvastatin differed across quintiles of baseline GSM values (P for interaction = .01). In the lowest quintile (n = 175) (i.e., in those with the most echolucent intima-media), the difference in the rate of change in GSM between rosuvastatin and placebo was 4.18 (95% confidence interval, -0.23 to 8.58). Increases in GSM were significantly related to decreasing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in the lowest quintile (β = 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.26 to 1.25). Treatment with rosuvastatin did not affect the echolucency of the arterial wall in all low-risk individuals. However, a potential effect of rosuvastatin on the echolucency of the common carotid intima-media is most likely to be found in individuals with echolucent arterial walls at baseline. Copyright © 2012 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Fast integration-based prediction bands for ordinary differential equation models.

PubMed

Hass, Helge; Kreutz, Clemens; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

2016-04-15

To gain a deeper understanding of biological processes and their relevance in disease, mathematical models are built upon experimental data. Uncertainty in the data leads to uncertainties of the model's parameters and in turn to uncertainties of predictions. Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks are frequently based on nonlinear differential equation systems and feature a large number of parameters, sparse observations of the model components and lack of information in the available data. Due to the curse of dimensionality, classical and sampling approaches propagating parameter uncertainties to predictions are hardly feasible and insufficient. However, for experimental design and to discriminate between competing models, prediction and confidence bands are essential. To circumvent the hurdles of the former methods, an approach to calculate a profile likelihood on arbitrary observations for a specific time point has been introduced, which provides accurate confidence and prediction intervals for nonlinear models and is computationally feasible for high-dimensional models. In this article, reliable and smooth point-wise prediction and confidence bands to assess the model's uncertainty on the whole time-course are achieved via explicit integration with elaborate correction mechanisms. The corresponding system of ordinary differential equations is derived and tested on three established models for cellular signalling. An efficiency analysis is performed to illustrate the computational benefit compared with repeated profile likelihood calculations at multiple time points. The integration framework and the examples used in this article are provided with the software package Data2Dynamics, which is based on MATLAB and freely available at http://www.data2dynamics.org helge.hass@fdm.uni-freiburg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Direct Contra Naïve-Indirect Comparison of Clinical Failure Rates between High-Viscosity GIC and Conventional Amalgam Restorations: An Empirical Study

PubMed Central

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Background Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions’ evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. Methods A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Results Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann–Whitney U  =  25, nindirect  =  26; ndirect  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). Conclusion The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates. PMID:24205220

Variation in Patient Profiles and Outcomes in US and Non-US Subgroups of the Cangrelor Versus Standard Therapy to Achieve Optimal Management of Platelet Inhibition (CHAMPION) PHOENIX Trial

PubMed Central

Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Harrington, Robert A.; Stone, Gregg W.; Steg, Ph. Gabriel; Gibson, C. Michael; Hamm, Christian W.; Price, Matthew J.; Prats, Jayne; Deliargyris, Efthymios N.; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; White, Harvey D.

2016-01-01

Background— The Cangrelor Versus Standard Therapy to Achieve Optimal Management of Platelet Inhibition (CHAMPION) PHOENIX trial demonstrated superiority of cangrelor in reducing ischemic events at 48 hours in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention compared with clopidogrel. Methods and Results— We analyzed all patients included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis in US (n=4097; 37.4%) and non-US subgroups (n=6845; 62.6%). The US cohort was older, had a higher burden of cardiovascular risk factors, and had more frequently undergone prior cardiovascular procedures. US patients more frequently underwent percutaneous coronary intervention for stable angina (77.9% versus 46.2%). Almost all US patients (99.1%) received clopidogrel loading doses of 600 mg, whereas 40.5% of non-US patients received 300 mg. Bivalirudin was more frequently used in US patients (56.7% versus 2.9%). At 48 hours, rates of the primary composite end point were comparable in the US and non-US cohorts (5.5% versus 5.2%; P=0.53). Cangrelor reduced rates of the primary composite end point compared with clopidogrel in US (4.5% versus 6.4%; odds ratio 0.70 [95% confidence interval 0.53–0.92]) and in non-US patients (4.8% versus 5.6%; odds ratio 0.85 [95% confidence interval 0.69–1.05]; interaction P=0.26). Similarly, rates of the key secondary end point, stent thrombosis, were reduced by cangrelor in both regions. Rates of Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Arteries (GUSTO)–defined severe bleeding were low and not significantly increased by cangrelor in either region. Conclusions— Despite broad differences in clinical profiles and indications for percutaneous coronary intervention by region in a large global cardiovascular clinical trial, cangrelor consistently reduced rates of ischemic end points compared with clopidogrel without an excess in severe bleeding in both the US and non-US subgroups. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01156571. PMID:27313282

Direct contra naïve-indirect comparison of clinical failure rates between high-viscosity GIC and conventional amalgam restorations: an empirical study.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions' evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann-Whitney U  =  25, n(indirect)  =  26; n(direct)  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates.

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

A prospective observational cohort study to assess the incidence of acute otitis media among children 0-5 years of age in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Lanzieri, Tatiana M; Cunha, Clóvis Arns da; Cunha, Rejane B; Arguello, D Fermin; Devadiga, Raghavendra; Sanchez, Nervo; Barria, Eduardo Ortega

To estimate acute otitis media incidence among young children and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers in a southern Brazilian city. Prospective cohort study including children 0-5 years of age registered at a private pediatric practice. Acute otitis media episodes diagnosed by a pediatrician and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers were assessed during a 12-month follow-up. During September 2008-March 2010, of 1,136 children enrolled in the study, 1074 (95%) were followed: 55.0% were ≤2 years of age, 52.3% males, 94.7% white, and 69.2% had previously received pneumococcal vaccine in private clinics. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 95.7 (95% confidence interval: 77.2-117.4) overall, 105.5 (95% confidence interval: 78.3-139.0) in children ≤2 years of age and 63.6 (95% confidence interval: 43.2-90.3) in children 3-5 years of age. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 86.3 (95% confidence interval: 65.5-111.5) and 117.1 (95% confidence interval: 80.1-165.3) among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, respectively. Nearly 68.9% of parents reported worsening of their overall quality of life. Acute otitis media incidence among unvaccinated children in our study may be useful as baseline data to assess impact of pneumococcal vaccine introduction in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in April 2010. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

Lack of significant effect of bilastine administered at therapeutic and supratherapeutic doses and concomitantly with ketoconazole on ventricular repolarization: results of a thorough QT study (TQTS) with QT-concentration analysis.

PubMed

Tyl, Benoît; Kabbaj, Meriam; Azzam, Sara; Sologuren, Ander; Valiente, Román; Reinbolt, Elizabeth; Roupe, Kathryn; Blanco, Nathalie; Wheeler, William

2012-06-01

The effect of bilastine on cardiac repolarization was studied in 30 healthy participants during a multiple-dose, triple-dummy, crossover, thorough QT study that included 5 arms: placebo, active control (400 mg moxifloxacin), bilastine at therapeutic and supratherapeutic doses (20 mg and 100 mg once daily, respectively), and bilastine 20 mg administered with ketoconazole 400 mg. Time-matched, triplicate electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded with 13 time points extracted predose and 16 extracted over 72 hours post day 4 dosing. Four QT/RR corrections were implemented: QTcB; QTcF; a linear individual correction (QTcNi), the primary correction; and a nonlinear one (QTcNnl). Moxifloxacin was associated with a significant increase in QTcNi at all time points between 1 and 12 hours, inclusively. Bilastine administration at 20 mg and 100 mg had no clinically significant impact on QTc (maximum increase in QTcNi, 5.02 ms; upper confidence limit [UCL] of the 1-sided, 95% confidence interval, 7.87 ms). Concomitant administration of ketoconazole and bilastine 20 mg induced a clinically relevant increase in QTc (maximum increase in QTcNi, 9.3 ms; UCL, 12.16 ms). This result was most likely related to the cardiac effect of ketoconazole because for all time points, bilastine plasma concentrations were lower than those observed following the supratherapeutic dose.

Antilock brakes and the risk of driver injury in a crash: a case-control study.

PubMed

Cummings, Peter; Grossman, David C

2007-09-01

While antilock brakes can improve steering and reduce stopping distance in some test situations, there is little evidence that they reduce the risk of crash-related injury. We sought to estimate the association between presence of antilock brakes and the risk of driver injury. We conducted a case-control study using claims data from the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, Canada, for passenger vehicles insured during July 1, 2003, to June 30, 2004. Cases were 5000 vehicles with a driver crash injury during the study period. Controls were 49,994 vehicles insured at the mid-point of the study interval. The adjusted risk ratio for a crash with driver injury in a vehicle with antilock brakes was 1.06 (95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.17), compared with a vehicle without antilock brakes. If this estimated association is causal, antilock brakes do not prevent crash-related driver injuries.

What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela

2017-03-01

Here, one of the substantial improvements to the practice of data analysis in recent decades is the change from reporting just a point estimate for a parameter or characteristic, to now including a summary of uncertainty for that estimate. Understanding the precision of the estimate for the quantity of interest provides better understanding of what to expect and how well we are able to predict future behavior from the process. For example, when we report a sample average as an estimate of the population mean, it is good practice to also provide a confidence interval (or credible interval, if youmore » are doing a Bayesian analysis) to accompany that summary. This helps to calibrate what ranges of values are reasonable given the variability observed in the sample and the amount of data that were included in producing the summary.« less

A cross-country Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) dataset.

PubMed

Desai, Mohit; Patnaik, Ila; Felman, Joshua; Shah, Ajay

2017-06-01

The data presented in this article are related to the research article titled - "An exchange market pressure measure for cross country analysis" (Patnaik et al. [1]). In this article, we present the dataset for Exchange Market Pressure values (EMP) for 139 countries along with their conversion factors, ρ (rho). Exchange Market Pressure, expressed in percentage change in exchange rate, measures the change in exchange rate that would have taken place had the central bank not intervened. The conversion factor ρ can interpreted as the change in exchange rate associated with $1 billion of intervention. Estimates of conversion factor ρ allow us to calculate a monthly time series of EMP for 139 countries. Additionally, the dataset contains the 68% confidence interval (high and low values) for the point estimates of ρ 's. Using the standard errors of estimates of ρ 's, we obtain one sigma intervals around mean estimates of EMP values. These values are also reported in the dataset.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of the Tamarisk Leaf Beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on the diet of insectivorous birds along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Sarah L.; van Riper, Charles

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of a biologic control agent, the tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on native avifauna in southwestern Colorado, specifically, addressing whether and to what degree birds eat tamarisk leaf beetles. In 2010, we documented avian foraging behavior, characterized the arthropod community, sampled bird diets, and undertook an experiment to determine whether tamarisk leaf beetles are palatable to birds. We observed that tamarisk leaf beetles compose 24.0 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 19.9-27.4 percent) and 35.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 32.4-45.1 percent) of arthropod abundance and biomass in the study area, respectively. Birds ate few tamarisk leaf beetles, despite a superabundance of D. carinulata in the environment. The frequency of occurrence of tamarisk leaf beetles in bird diets was 2.1 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 1.3- 2.9 percent) by abundance and 3.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 2.6-4.2 percent) by biomass. Thus, tamarisk leaf beetles probably do not contribute significantly to the diets of birds in areas where biologic control of tamarisk is being applied.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

The range of confidence scales does not affect the relationship between confidence and accuracy in recognition memory.

PubMed

Tekin, Eylul; Roediger, Henry L

2017-01-01

Researchers use a wide range of confidence scales when measuring the relationship between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory, with the highest number usually representing the greatest confidence (e.g., 4-point, 20-point, and 100-point scales). The assumption seems to be that the range of the scale has little bearing on the confidence-accuracy relationship. In two old/new recognition experiments, we directly investigated this assumption using word lists (Experiment 1) and faces (Experiment 2) by employing 4-, 5-, 20-, and 100-point scales. Using confidence-accuracy characteristic (CAC) plots, we asked whether confidence ratings would yield similar CAC plots, indicating comparability in use of the scales. For the comparisons, we divided 100-point and 20-point scales into bins of either four or five and asked, for example, whether confidence ratings of 4, 16-20, and 76-100 would yield similar values. The results show that, for both types of material, the different scales yield similar CAC plots. Notably, when subjects express high confidence, regardless of which scale they use, they are likely to be very accurate (even though they studied 100 words and 50 faces in each list in 2 experiments). The scales seem convertible from one to the other, and choice of scale range probably does not affect research into the relationship between confidence and accuracy. High confidence indicates high accuracy in recognition in the present experiments.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of remote telemedical management on mortality and hospitalizations in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure: the telemedical interventional monitoring in heart failure study.

PubMed

Koehler, Friedrich; Winkler, Sebastian; Schieber, Michael; Sechtem, Udo; Stangl, Karl; Böhm, Michael; Boll, Herbert; Baumann, Gert; Honold, Marcus; Koehler, Kerstin; Gelbrich, Goetz; Kirwan, Bridget-Anne; Anker, Stefan D

2011-05-03

This study was designed to determine whether physician-led remote telemedical management (RTM) compared with usual care would result in reduced mortality in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure (HF). We enrolled 710 stable chronic HF patients in New York Heart Association functional class II or III with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% and a history of HF decompensation within the previous 2 years or with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤25%. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to RTM or usual care. Remote telemedical management used portable devices for ECG, blood pressure, and body weight measurements connected to a personal digital assistant that sent automated encrypted transmission via cell phones to the telemedical centers. The primary end point was death from any cause. The first secondary end point was a composite of cardiovascular death and hospitalization for HF. Baseline characteristics were similar between the RTM (n=354) and control (n=356) groups. Of the patients assigned to RTM, 287 (81%) were at least 70% compliant with daily data transfers and no break for >30 days (except during hospitalizations). The median follow-up was 26 months (minimum 12), and was 99.9% complete. Compared with usual care, RTM had no significant effect on all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.41; P=0.87) or on cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.19; P=0.44). In ambulatory patients with chronic HF, RTM compared with usual care was not associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. URL: http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00543881.

Norovirus and Rotavirus Disease Severity in Children: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Riera-Montes, Margarita; O'Ryan, Miguel; Verstraeten, Thomas

2018-06-01

Rotaviruses (RVs) and noroviruses (NoVs) are the most common causes of severe acute gastroenteritis in children. It is generally accepted that RVs cause severe acute gastroenteritis in a higher proportion of cases compared with NoVs. To our knowledge, there are no systematic reviews and meta-analyses comparing the severity of NoV and RV disease. We searched MEDLINE for studies reporting data for NoV and RV medically attended disease severity in children. We included studies where all children had been tested for both NoV (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) and RV (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay or reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) and that reported disease severity using the Vesikari or modified Vesikari score, or provided clinical information on severity. We generated pooled estimates of the mean with 95% confidence intervals using random effects meta-analysis. We identified 266 publications, of which 31 were retained for qualitative analysis and 26 for quantitative analysis. Fourteen studies provided data on severity score for the meta-analysis. The pooled mean severity scores (95% confidence interval) among outpatients were 10 (8-12) and 11 (8-14) for NoV and RV, respectively. Among inpatients, they were 11 (9-13) for NoV and 12 (10-14) for RV. The difference was statistically significant among inpatients, but relatively small (1 point in a 20-point scale). About 20% more children with RV required rehydration when compared with children with NoV. NoV causes moderate to severe disease similar to RV in young children. This information should be useful for future evaluations of an eventual introduction of NoV vaccines in national immunization programs.

Performance analysis of newly developed point-of-care hemoglobinometer (TrueHb) against an automated hematology analyzer (Sysmex XT 1800i) in terms of precision in hemoglobin measurement.

PubMed

Srivastava, A; Koul, V; Dwivedi, S N; Upadhyaya, A D; Ahuja, A; Saxena, R

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the newly developed handheld hemoglobinmeter (TrueHb) by comparing its performance against and an automated five-part hematology analyzer, Sysmex counter XT 1800i (Sysmex). Two hundred venous blood samples were subjected through their total hemoglobin evaluation on each device three times. The average of the three readings on each device was considered as their respective device values, that is, TrueHb values and Sysmex values. The two set of values were comparatively analyzed. The repeatability of the performance of TrueHb was also evaluated against Sysmex values. The scatter plot of TrueHb values and Sysmex values showed linear distribution with positive correlations (r = 0.99). The intraclass correlation (ICC) values between the two set of values was found to be 0.995. Regression coefficients through origin, β, was found to be 0.995, with 95% confidence intervals (CI) ranging between 0.9900 and 1.0000. The mean difference in Bland-Altman plots of TrueHb values against the Sysmex values was found to be -0.02, with limits of agreement between -0.777 and 0.732 g/dL. Statistical analysis suggested good repeatability in results of TrueHb, having a low mean CV of 2.22, against 4.44, that of Sysmex values, and 95% confidence interval of 1.99-2.44, against 3.85-5.03, that of Sysmex values. These results suggested a strong positive correlation between the two measurements devices. It is thus concluded that TrueHb is a good point-of-care testing tool for estimating hemoglobin. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru.

PubMed

Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A; Thompson, David M; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

2017-01-01

Objectives: The World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods : A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results : The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions : Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources.

Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A.; Thompson, David M.; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

2017-01-01

Objectives: The World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods: A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results: The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions: Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources. PMID:29152541

The influence of the length of the first metatarsal on the risk of reulceration in the feet of patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Molines-Barroso, Raúl J; Lázaro-Martínez, José L; Aragón-Sánchez, Javier; García-Morales, Esther; Carabantes-Alarcón, David; Álvaro-Afonso, Francisco Javier

2014-03-01

Our aim was to identify the optimal diagnostic cutoff point on the scale of protrusion measurements of the first metatarsal (M1) to predict the probability of reulceration after metatarsal head resection in patients with diabetes mellitus. We conducted a prospective study of patients with diabetes who underwent resection of at least 1 metatarsal head in our department. After surgery, we measured the difference in length (protrusion) between the M1 and the longest of the 4 lesser metatarsals by radiographic view. The patients were divided into those in whom the M1 was the longest of the 5 metatarsals (group 1) and patients in whom at least one of the lesser metatarsals was longer than the M1 (group 2). They were followed-up for 12 months and were assessed for reulceration. Ninety-one patients were included in the present study: 43 (47%) in group 1 and 48 (53%) in group 2. In group 1, the longer the protrusion of M1 was, the higher the probability for reulceration (P < .001, 95% confidence interval = 0.813-0.997). In group 2, the shorter the protrusion of M1, the higher the probability for reulceration (P = .002, 95% confidence interval = 0.628-0.905). The optimal cutoff point for group 1 was 11 mm (sensitivity = 84.6%, specificity = 86.7%) for the probability of reulceration. In group 2, it was -7 mm (sensitivity = 81.8%, specificity = 65.4%). These results suggest that M1 protrusion is an optimum prognostic indicator for reulceration and could be recommended for detecting patients at risk of reulceration after surgery.

Is point of access to needles and syringes related to needle sharing? Comparing data collected from pharmacies and needle and syringe programs in south-east Sydney.

PubMed

Bryant, Joanne; Topp, Libby; Hopwood, Max; Iversen, Jenny; Treloar, Carla; Maher, Lisa

2010-07-01

The comprehensive needle and syringe distribution system in New South Wales is partly based on the premise that different points of access to injecting equipment may attract different groups of injecting drug users. This paper examines patterns of equipment acquisition and risk for blood-borne virus transmission among injecting drug users who use pharmacies and needle and syringe programs (NSP) in south-east Sydney. Clients obtaining injecting equipment from four NSP (n = 147) and eight pharmacies (n = 227) in 2006 voluntarily completed a self-administered questionnaire. Respondents were grouped into three categories based on their needle and syringe acquisition patterns: exclusive use of NSP, exclusive use of pharmacies and use of both. Although it was common for respondents to report using both pharmacies and NSP to obtain needles and syringes (57%), a proportion reported exclusive use of pharmacies (17%) and NSP (14%). Exclusive pharmacy users were more likely to have never received treatment for their drug use and the least likely to have had a recent test for hepatitis C. Compared with respondents who exclusively used NSP, respondents who exclusively used pharmacies were more likely to report receptive sharing of injecting equipment (adjusted odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 2.02-17.14), as were respondents who reported using both sources (adjusted odds ratio 5.8, 95% confidence interval 2.35-14.40). The high prevalence of receptive equipment sharing among pharmacy clients indicates a need to improve access to needles and syringes and ancillary equipment, possibly by including ancillary equipment at no cost in existing pre-packaged pharmacy products.

Bioequivalence assessment of ambroxol tablet after a single oral dose administration to healthy male volunteers.

PubMed

Lee, Hee Joo; Joung, Sun Koung; Kim, Yoon Gyoon; Yoo, Jeong-Yeon; Han, Sang Beom

2004-01-01

A bioequivalence study of the ambroxol hydrochloride tablets was conducted. Twenty-four healthy male Korean volunteers received each medicine at the ambroxol hydrochloride dose of 30 mg in a 2 x 2 cross-over study. There was a 1-week washout period between the doses. Plasma concentrations of ambroxol were monitored by a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for over a period of 24h after the administration. AUC(t) (the area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time 0 to last sampling time, 24h) was calculated by the linear-log trapezoidal rule method. C(max) (maximum plasma drug concentration) and T(max) (time to reach C(max)) were compiled from the plasma concentration-time data. Analysis of variance was carried out using logarithmically transformed AUC(t) and C(max), and untransformed T(max). The geometric mean of AUC(t) was 495.8 ng ml(-1)h(-1) (test medication) and 468.3 ng ml(-1)h(-1) (reference medication). C(max) of 61.5 and 57.3 ng ml(-1) were achieved for the test and the reference medication, respectively. The point estimates and 90% confidence intervals for AUC(t) (parametric) and C(max) (parametric) were, in point estimate (90% confidence interval), 1.058 (0.989-1.134) and 1.073 (1.007-1.142), respectively, satisfying the bioequivalence criteria of the European Committee for Proprietary Medicinal Products and the US Food and Drug Administration Guidelines. The corresponding value of T(max) was 0.229 (0.015-0.444). These results indicate that the two medications of ambroxol hydrochloride are bioequivalent and, thus, may be prescribed interchangeably.

PMTCT Option B+ Does Not Increase Preterm Birth Risk and May Prevent Extreme Prematurity: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Malawi.

PubMed

Chagomerana, Maganizo B; Miller, William C; Pence, Brian W; Hosseinipour, Mina C; Hoffman, Irving F; Flick, Robert J; Tweya, Hannock; Mumba, Soyapi; Chimbwandira, Frank; Powers, Kimberly A

2017-04-01

To estimate preterm birth risk among infants of HIV-infected women in Lilongwe, Malawi, according to maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) status and initiation time under Option B+. A retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected women delivering at ≥27 weeks of gestation, April 2012 to November 2015. Among women on ART at delivery, we restricted our analysis to those who initiated ART before 27 weeks of gestation. We defined preterm birth as a singleton live birth at ≥27 and <37 weeks of gestation, with births at <32 weeks classified as extremely to very preterm. We used log-binomial models to estimate risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between ART and preterm birth. Among 3074 women included in our analyses, 731 preterm deliveries were observed (24%). Overall preterm birth risk was similar in women who had initiated ART at any point before 27 weeks and those who never initiated ART (risk ratio = 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 0.84 to 1.55), but risk of extremely to very preterm birth was 2.33 (1.39 to 3.92) times as great in those who never initiated ART compared with those who did at any point before 27 weeks. Among women on ART before delivery, ART initiation before conception was associated with the lowest preterm birth risk. ART during pregnancy was not associated with preterm birth, and it may in fact be protective against severe adverse outcomes accompanying extremely to very preterm birth. As preconception ART initiation appears especially protective, long-term retention on ART should be a priority to minimize preterm birth in subsequent pregnancies.

Midterm Outcomes of Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty With the Use of a Multihole Highly-Porous Titanium Shell.

PubMed

Delanois, Ronald E; Gwam, Chukwuweike U; Mohamed, Nequesha; Khlopas, Anton; Chughtai, Morad; Malkani, Arthur L; Mont, Michael A

2017-09-01

We are reporting on the minimum 5-year outcomes of patients who underwent revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) using a specific highly-porous titanium shell. We assessed (1) aseptic and all-cause survivorship; (2) functional outcomes; (3) complications; and (4) radiographic outcomes. Two hospital databases were evaluated for patients who underwent revision THA due to component instability or aseptic loosening using a cementless highly-porous titanium shell between September 2006 and December 2011. This yielded 35 patients who had a mean age of 61 years (range 14-88 years). Patients had a mean follow-up of 6 years (minimum 5 years). All-cause and aseptic survivorship of the shell was calculated. Functional outcomes were assessed using the Harris Hip Score. We determined the incidence of postoperative complications and performed radiographic evaluation of pelvic radiographs from regular office visits. The aseptic survivorship of the acetabular component was 97% (95% confidence interval; 8.1-9.5). The all-cause survivorship of the acetabular component was 91% (95% confidence interval; 7.3-8.1). One patient had an aseptic failure and 2 patients had septic failures. The mean postoperative Harris Hip Score was 76 points (range, 61-91 points). Excluding the aseptic and septic failures, there was no osteolysis or progressive radiolucencies present on radiographic evaluation at final follow-up. At a minimum of 5-year follow-up, the highly-porous titanium acetabular revision shell has excellent survivorship and functional outcomes. Although long-term follow-up is needed to further monitor these implants, the results are promising and demonstrate that this prosthesis may be an excellent option for patients undergoing revision THA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cryotherapy Reduces Progression of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 1 in South African HIV-Infected Women: A Randomized, Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Firnhaber, Cynthia; Swarts, Avril; Goeieman, Bridgette; Rakhombe, Ntombi; Mulongo, Masangu; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Michelow, Pam; Ramotshela, Sibongile; Faesen, Mark; Levin, Simon; Wilkin, Timothy

2017-12-15

HIV-infected women are at an increased risk of cervical cancer, especially in resource-limited countries. Cervical cancer prevention strategies focus treating cervical high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). The management of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) in HIV-infected women is unknown. HIV treatment clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We randomized HIV-infected women with histologic cervical LSIL to cervical cryotherapy vs. no treatment (standard of care). Cervical high-risk human papillomavirus testing (hrHPV) was performed at baseline. All women underwent cervical cytology and colposcopic biopsies 12 months after enrollment. The primary end point was HSIL on histology at month 12. Chi-square was used to compare arms. Overall, 220 HIV-infected women were randomized to cryotherapy (n = 112) or no treatment (n = 108). Median age was 38 years, 94% were receiving antiretroviral therapy; median CD4 was 499 cells per cubic millimeter, and 59% were hrHPV positive. Cryotherapy reduced progression to HSIL: 2/99 (2%) in the cryotherapy arm and 15/103 (15%) in the no treatment arm developed HSIL, 86% reduction (95% confidence interval: 41% to 97%; P = 0.002). Among 17 HSIL end points, 16 were hrHPV+ at baseline. When restricting the analysis to hrHPV+ women, HSIL occurred in 2/61 (3%) in the cryotherapy arm vs. 14/54 (26%) in the no treatment arm, 87% reduction (95% confidence interval: 47% to 97%; P = 0.0004). Participants in the cryotherapy arm experienced greater regression to normal histology and improved cytologic outcomes. Treatment of cervical LSIL with cryotherapy decreased progression to HSIL among HIV-infected women especially if hrHPV positive. These results support treatment of LSIL in human papillomavirus test-and-treat approaches for cervical cancer prevention in resource-constrained settings.