Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Hall, Courtney T.; Brumfield, Marisa D; Dugas, Jason; Jones, William R.

2017-01-01

Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6 °C). We expect that in the past 121 years, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze-sensitive organisms. In broad terms, our findings can be used to better understand and anticipate the ecological effects of changing winter climate extremes, especially within the transition zone between tropical and temperate climates.

Weak genetic divergence suggests extensive gene flow at the northeastern range limit of a dioecious Ficus species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Yang, Chang-Hong; Ding, Yuan-Yuan; Tong, Xin; Chen, Xiao-Yong

2018-07-01

Genus Ficus (Moraceae) plays a critical role in the sustainability and biodiversity in tropical and subtropical ecosystems. Ficus species and their host specific pollinating fig wasps (Agaonidae) represent a classic example of obligate mutualism. The genetic consequence of range expansion and range shift is still under investigation, but extensive gene flow and subsequently low level of genetic divergence may be expected to occur among the populations at the poleward range limit of some Ficus species due to long distance gene flow in the genus. In the present study, we focused on populations of F. sarmentosa var. henryi at its northeastern range limit in southeast China to test whether edge populations were genetically fragile. Consistent with our hypothesis, high level of genetic diversity and weak genetic structure were revealed in Ficus sarmentosa var. henryi populations, suggesting extensive gene flow at the plant's range limit. Long-distance movements of both pollinators and frugivorous birds were likely to be frequent and thereby predominantly contributed to the extensive gene flow at large scale despite of some magnificent landscape elements like huge mountains.

Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics.

PubMed

Colwell, Robert K; Brehm, Gunnar; Cardelús, Catherine L; Gilman, Alex C; Longino, John T

2008-10-10

Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity.

PubMed

Kossin, James P; Emanuel, Kerry A; Vecchi, Gabriel A

2014-05-15

Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.

PubMed

Crickenberger, Sam; Wethey, David S

2018-05-10

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Day, Richard H; Hall, Courtney T; Brumfield, Marisa D; Dugas, Jason L; Jones, William R

2017-01-01

Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6°C). We expect that in the past 121 yr, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze-sensitive organisms. In broad terms, our findings can be used to better understand and anticipate the ecological effects of changing winter climate extremes, especially within the transition zone between tropical and temperate climates. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Rapid evolution of larval life history, adult immune function and flight muscles in a poleward-moving damselfly.

PubMed

Therry, L; Nilsson-Örtman, V; Bonte, D; Stoks, R

2014-01-01

Although a growing number of studies have documented the evolution of adult dispersal-related traits at the range edge of poleward-expanding species, we know little about evolutionary changes in immune function or traits expressed by nondispersing larvae. We investigated differentiation in larval (growth and development) and adult traits (immune function and flight-related traits) between replicated core and edge populations of the poleward-moving damselfly Coenagrion scitulum. These traits were measured on individuals reared in a common garden experiment at two different food levels, as allocation trade-offs may be easier to detect under energy shortage. Edge individuals had a faster larval life history (growth and development rates), a higher adult immune function and a nearly significant higher relative flight muscle mass. Most of the differentiation between core and edge populations remained and edge populations had a higher relative flight muscle mass when corrected for latitude-specific thermal regimes, and hence could likely be attributed to the range expansion process per se. We here for the first time document a higher immune function in individuals at the expansion front of a poleward-expanding species and documented the rarely investigated evolution of faster life histories during range expansion. The rapid multivariate evolution in these ecological relevant traits between edge and core populations is expected to translate into changed ecological interactions and therefore has the potential to generate novel eco-evolutionary dynamics at the expansion front. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Slow Response or No Response? Distinguishing Non-Climatic Range Limits from Demographic Inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillerislambers, J.; Anderegg, L. D. L.; Breckheimer, I.; Ford, K.; Kroiss, S.

2016-12-01

One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how species distributions will respond to climate change. In general, species distributions have moved polewards and upslope with recent climate change (i.e. range shifts), supporting the assumption that range limits are climatically determined. However, studies also document a surprising number of species whose distributions have remained unchanged in the last 50-100 years, despite significant warming during that time period. This apparent lack of response to warming can arise for species whose range limits are determined by factors other than climate (e.g. species interactions) OR for long-lived, slow-growing, and/or dispersal-limited species whose range shifts are unable to keep pace with rapid climate change. Unfortunately, while these two possibilities are often difficult to distinguish, they have very different implications for the long-term viability of the species in question. Here, we use extensive demographic data for long-lived and slow-growing conifers collected across a large climatic gradient at Mount Rainier (WA, USA) to explore A) evidence for climatically determined range limits and B) the rate at which altitudinal distributions could shift in response to climate change in the region. In doing so, we highlight some of the complications we face in identifying whether species will be sensitive or resilient to climate change.

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion.

PubMed

Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Parker, John D; Cook-Patton, Susan C; Feller, Ilka C; Williams, A Park; Kellner, James R

2015-05-01

Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2-3.2 km yr(-1) over the next 50 years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Research Spotlight: Corals expanding poleward due to warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-04-01

Corals are important organisms for ecosystems and are sensitive indicators of the effects of climate warming. While corals are bleaching and dying in tropical areas due to climate warming, a new study shows that in temperate areas they are expanding their range poleward as water temperatures increase. Yamano et al. used 80 years of records to study the range of corals around Japan. Sea surface temperatures have risen in these temperate areas during that time. They found that four of the nine species of coral they studied expanded their range northward since the 1930s, while none had its range shrink southward. The corals expanded northward as quickly as 14 kilometers per year. The study suggests that rapid modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be taking place. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474, 2011)

Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change.

PubMed

Buckley, James; Bridle, Jon R

2014-10-01

The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae-dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate-driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Is the Geographic Range of Mangrove Forests in the Conterminous United States Really Expanding?

PubMed Central

Giri, Chandra; Long, Jordan

2016-01-01

Changes in the distribution and abundance of mangrove species within and outside of their historic geographic range can have profound consequences in the provision of ecosystem goods and services they provide. Mangroves in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are believed to be expanding poleward (north) due to decreases in the frequency and severity of extreme cold events, while sea level rise is a factor often implicated in the landward expansion of mangroves locally. We used ~35 years of satellite imagery and in situ observations for CONUS and report that: (i) poleward expansion of mangrove forest is inconclusive, and may have stalled for now, and (ii) landward expansion is actively occurring within the historical northernmost limit. We revealed that the northernmost latitudinal limit of mangrove forests along the east and west coasts of Florida, in addition to Louisiana and Texas has not systematically expanded toward the pole. Mangrove area, however, expanded by 4.3% from 1980 to 2015 within the historic northernmost boundary, with the highest percentage of change in Texas and southern Florida. Several confounding factors such as sea level rise, absence or presence of sub-freezing temperatures, land use change, impoundment/dredging, changing hydrology, fire, storm, sedimentation and erosion, and mangrove planting are responsible for the change. Besides, sea level rise, relatively milder winters and the absence of sub-freezing temperatures in recent decades may be enabling the expansion locally. The results highlight the complex set of forcings acting on the northerly extent of mangroves and emphasize the need for long-term monitoring as this system increases in importance as a means to adapt to rising oceans and mitigate the effects of increased atmospheric CO2. PMID:27916810

Is the Geographic Range of Mangrove Forests in the Conterminous United States Really Expanding?

PubMed

Giri, Chandra; Long, Jordan

2016-11-28

Changes in the distribution and abundance of mangrove species within and outside of their historic geographic range can have profound consequences in the provision of ecosystem goods and services they provide. Mangroves in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are believed to be expanding poleward (north) due to decreases in the frequency and severity of extreme cold events, while sea level rise is a factor often implicated in the landward expansion of mangroves locally. We used ~35 years of satellite imagery and in situ observations for CONUS and report that: (i) poleward expansion of mangrove forest is inconclusive, and may have stalled for now, and (ii) landward expansion is actively occurring within the historical northernmost limit. We revealed that the northernmost latitudinal limit of mangrove forests along the east and west coasts of Florida, in addition to Louisiana and Texas has not systematically expanded toward the pole. Mangrove area, however, expanded by 4.3% from 1980 to 2015 within the historic northernmost boundary, with the highest percentage of change in Texas and southern Florida. Several confounding factors such as sea level rise, absence or presence of sub-freezing temperatures, land use change, impoundment/dredging, changing hydrology, fire, storm, sedimentation and erosion, and mangrove planting are responsible for the change. Besides, sea level rise, relatively milder winters and the absence of sub-freezing temperatures in recent decades may be enabling the expansion locally. The results highlight the complex set of forcings acting on the northerly extent of mangroves and emphasize the need for long-term monitoring as this system increases in importance as a means to adapt to rising oceans and mitigate the effects of increased atmospheric CO₂.

Poleward displacement of coastal upwelling-favorable winds through the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rykaczewski, R. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Sydeman, W. J.; Garcia-Reyes, M.; Black, B.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-02-01

Coastal upwelling is a critical factor influencing the biological production, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean's major eastern boundary current ecosystems. A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land-sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. We examine this hypothesis using an ensemble of coupled, ocean-atmosphere models and find limited evidence for intensification of upwelling-favorable winds or atmospheric pressure gradients in response to increasing land-sea temperature differences. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high-pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken. Developing a better understanding of future changes in upwelling winds is essential to identifying portions of the oceans susceptible to increased hypoxia, ocean acidification, and eutrophication under climate change.

Subtidal Benthic Invertebrates Shifting Northward Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast

EPA Science Inventory

Numerous marine and terrestrial species have shifted their ranges poleward in response to warming from global climate change. However, few studies have examined range shifts of subtidal benthic communities in estuarine and nearshore waters. This study examined 20 years (1990–2010...

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain.

PubMed

Gillings, Simon; Balmer, Dawn E; Fuller, Robert J

2015-06-01

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Black carbon aerosol-induced Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion

DOE PAGES

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil

2015-06-23

Global climate models (GCMs) underestimate the observed trend in tropical expansion. Recent studies partly attribute it to black carbon (BC) aerosols, which are poorly represented in GCMs. In this paper, we conduct a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model forced with increasing BC concentrations covering a large swath of the estimated range of current BC radiative forcing while maintaining their spatial distribution. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropics expand poleward nearly linearly as BC radiative forcing increases (0.7° W -1 m 2), indicating that a realistic representation of BC couldmore » reduce GCM biases. We find support for the mechanism where BC-induced midlatitude tropospheric heating shifts the maximum meridional tropospheric temperature gradient poleward resulting in tropical expansion. Finally, we also find that the NH poleward tropical edge is nearly linearly correlated with the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which shifts northward in response to increasing BC.« less

The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y.

2017-10-01

Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape.

Subtidal currents over the central California slope: Evidence for offshore veering of the undercurrent and for direct, wind-driven slope currents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noble, M.A.; Ramp, S.R.

2000-01-01

In February 1991, an array of six current-meter moorings was deployed for one year across the central California outer shelf and slope. The main line of the array extended 30 km offshore of the shelf break, out to water depths of 1400 m. A more sparsely-instrumented line, displaced 30 km to the northwest, extended 14 km offshore. Though shorter, the northern line spanned similar water depths because the gradient of the topography steepened in the northern region. A poleward flow pattern, typical of the California undercurrent, was seen across both lines in the array over most of the year. The poleward flow was surface intensified. In general, the portion of the undercurrent that crossed the southern line had larger amplitudes and penetrated more deeply into the water column than the portion that crossed the northern line. Transport over the year ranged from 0 to 2.5 Sverdrups (Sv) poleward across the southern line; 0 to 1 Sv poleward across the northern line. We suggest the difference in transport was caused by topographic constraints, which tended to force the poleward flow offshore of the northern measurement sites. The slope of the topography steepened too abruptly to allow the poleward flow to follow isobaths when currents were strong. When current velocities lessened, a more coherent flow pattern was seen across both lines in the array. In general, the poleward flow patterns in the undercurrent were not affected by local winds or by the local alongshore pressure gradient. Nor was a strong seasonal pattern evident. Rather unexpectedly, a small but statistically significant fraction of the current variance over the mid- and outer slope was driven by the surface wind stress. An alongshelf wind stress caused currents to flow along the slope, parallel to the wind field, down to depths of 400 m below the surface and out to distances of 2 Rossby radii past the shelf break. The transfer functions were weak, 3-4 cm/s per dyn cm-2, but comparable to wind-driven current amplitudes of 4-6 cm/s per unit wind stress over the middle shelf. Equatorward, alongshelf winds also caused water from 200-300 m over the slope to upwell onto the shelf as the surface water moved offshore.

Simultaneous observation of auroral substorm onset in Polar satellite global images and ground-based all-sky images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ieda, Akimasa; Kauristie, Kirsti; Nishimura, Yukitoshi; Miyashita, Yukinaga; Frey, Harald U.; Juusola, Liisa; Whiter, Daniel; Nosé, Masahito; Fillingim, Matthew O.; Honary, Farideh; Rogers, Neil C.; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Miura, Tsubasa; Kawashima, Takahiro; Machida, Shinobu

2018-05-01

Substorm onset has originally been defined as a longitudinally extended sudden auroral brightening (Akasofu initial brightening: AIB) followed a few minutes later by an auroral poleward expansion in ground-based all-sky images (ASIs). In contrast, such clearly marked two-stage development has not been evident in satellite-based global images (GIs). Instead, substorm onsets have been identified as localized sudden brightenings that expand immediately poleward. To resolve these differences, optical substorm onset signatures in GIs and ASIs are compared in this study for a substorm that occurred on December 7, 1999. For this substorm, the Polar satellite ultraviolet global imager was operated with a fixed-filter (170 nm) mode, enabling a higher time resolution (37 s) than usual to resolve the possible two-stage development. These data were compared with 20-s resolution green-line (557.7 nm) ASIs at Muonio in Finland. The ASIs revealed the AIB at 2124:50 UT and the subsequent poleward expansion at 2127:50 UT, whereas the GIs revealed only an onset brightening that started at 2127:49 UT. Thus, the onset in the GIs was delayed relative to the AIB and in fact agreed with the poleward expansion in the ASIs. The fact that the AIB was not evident in the GIs may be attributed to the limited spatial resolution of GIs for thin auroral arc brightenings. The implications of these results for the definition of substorm onset are discussed herein.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Role of extratropical cyclones in the recently observed increase in poleward moisture transport into the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villamil-Otero, Gian A.; Zhang, Jing; He, Juanxiong; Zhang, Xiangdong

2018-01-01

Poleward atmospheric moisture transport (AMT) into the Arctic Ocean can change atmospheric moisture or water vapor content and cause cloud formation and redistribution, which may change downward longwave radiation and, in turn, surface energy budgets, air temperatures, and sea-ice production and melt. In this study, we found a consistently enhanced poleward AMT across 60°N since 1959 based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis. Regional analysis demonstrates that the poleward AMT predominantly occurs over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions, contributing about 57% and 32%, respectively, to the total transport. To improve our understanding of the driving force for this enhanced poleward AMT, we explored the role that extratropical cyclone activity may play. Climatologically, about 207 extratropical cyclones move across 60°N into the Arctic Ocean each year, among which about 66 (32% of the total) and 47 (23%) originate from the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean, respectively. When analyzing the linear trends of the time series constructed by using a 20-year running window, we found a positive correlation of 0.70 between poleward yearly AMT and the integrated cyclone activity index (measurement of cyclone intensity, number, and duration). This shows the consistent multidecadal changes between these two parameters and may suggest cyclone activity plays a driving role in the enhanced poleward AMT. Furthermore, a composite analysis indicates that intensification and poleward extension of the Icelandic low and accompanying strengthened cyclone activity play an important role in enhancing poleward AMT over the North Atlantic region.

Case Study of Ion Beams Observed By Cluster At Perigee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeev, V.; Sauvaud, J.-A.; Perigee Beam Team

During substorms the short beams of ions in the keV-to-tens keV energy range are injected into the auroral flux tubes from the magnetotail (sometimes extending up to >100 keV energy) carrying the information on the source distance, scale-size and temporal history of plasma acceleration. We present observations with the CLUSTER crossing inward the auroral zone flux tubes at ~4Re distance near its perigee during the substorm activity on February 14, 2001. The ion beams cover the same region (poleward half) of the auroral oval where the low-energy ions are extracted from the ionosphere, and where the small-scale transient transverse Alfven waves are observed which carry predominantly the downward parallel Poynting flux into the ionosphere. The multiple beams were basically confirmed to be the transient effects, although some effects including the (spatial) velocity filter and the parallel electric fields (im- posed by quasineutrality requirement) may complicate the interpretation. The gener- ation region of ion beams is not limited to most poleward, newly-reconnected flux tubes; the beam generation region could extend across magnetic field inward by as much as >100km (if mapped to the ionosphere). Surprising variety of injection dis- tances observed nearly simultaneously (ranging between >60 Re and ~10 Re) have been inferred when using the full available energy and time resolution, with shorter injection distances be possibly associated with the flow braking process. The beam multiplicity often displays the apparent ~3 min quasiperiodicity inherent to the basic dissipation process, it was not yet explained by any substorm theory.

Hadley circulation strength and width in a wide range of simulated climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Agostino, R.; Adam, O.; Lionello, P.; Schneider, T.

2016-12-01

Understanding how the Hadley circulation (HC) responds to global warming is crucial because it determines climatic features such as the seasonal migration of the ITCZ, the extent of subtropical arid regions and the strength of the monsoons. Here we analyse changes in the HC strength and width in the set of PMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations, spanning a wide range of climate conditions from Last Glacial Maximum to future RCP projections. The large climate change signal emerging from comparing paleoclimate simulations to future scenarios offers the possibility to analyse the corresponding HC change and to investigate its response to large variations of the factors controlling it. The results confirm that the HC generally expands and weakens as the global mean temperature increases, consistent with results from other studies. Furthermore, we find an asymmetric HC response between the northern and southern hemisphere in the rate at which the HC edges shift poleward with global warming. The mid-latitude static stability and meridional temperature gradients affect the HC edges to different degrees in the two hemispheres. In the southern hemisphere the increase in the mid-latitude static stability is associated with a poleward shift of the southern HC edge, while in the northern hemisphere, the reduction in the meridional temperature gradient plays the dominant role in the poleward shift of the northern HC edge. The two hemispheres also exhibit very different changes of HC strength. The HC weakening with global warming occurs primarily in the northern hemisphere, while there is no change, or even a slighter weakening in the southern hemisphere. The HC changes also have pronounced seasonal signatures. The maximum poleward shift of the northern HC edge occurs one month later (from August to September) in future global warming scenarios than when comparing pre-industrial simulations with the Last Glacial Maximum.

Energy transport, polar amplification, and ITCZ shifts in the GeoMIP G1 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russotto, Rick D.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

2018-02-01

The polar amplification of warming and the ability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to shift to the north or south are two very important problems in climate science. Examining these behaviors in global climate models (GCMs) running solar geoengineering experiments is helpful not only for predicting the effects of solar geoengineering but also for understanding how these processes work under increased carbon dioxide (CO2). Both polar amplification and ITCZ shifts are closely related to the meridional transport of moist static energy (MSE) by the atmosphere. This study examines changes in MSE transport in 10 fully coupled GCMs in experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), in which the solar constant is reduced to compensate for the radiative forcing from abruptly quadrupled CO2 concentrations. In G1, poleward MSE transport decreases relative to preindustrial conditions in all models, in contrast to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) abrupt4xCO2 experiment, in which poleward MSE transport increases. We show that since poleward energy transport decreases rather than increases, and local feedbacks cannot change the sign of an initial temperature change, the residual polar amplification in the G1 experiment must be due to the net positive forcing in the polar regions and net negative forcing in the tropics, which arise from the different spatial patterns of the simultaneously imposed solar and CO2 forcings. However, the reduction in poleward energy transport likely plays a role in limiting the polar warming in G1. An attribution study with a moist energy balance model shows that cloud feedbacks are the largest source of uncertainty regarding changes in poleward energy transport in midlatitudes in G1, as well as for changes in cross-equatorial energy transport, which are anticorrelated with ITCZ shifts.

Tropical fishes dominate temperate reef fish communities within western Japan.

PubMed

Nakamura, Yohei; Feary, David A; Kanda, Masaru; Yamaoka, Kosaku

2013-01-01

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008-2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources.

Tropical Fishes Dominate Temperate Reef Fish Communities within Western Japan

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Yohei; Feary, David A.; Kanda, Masaru; Yamaoka, Kosaku

2013-01-01

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008–2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources. PMID:24312528

Identification and observations of the plasma mantle at low altitude

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newell, P.T.; Meng, Ching-I.; Sanchez, E.R.

1991-01-01

The direct injection of magnetosheath plasma into the cusp produces at low altitude a precipitation regime with an energy-latitude dispersion-the more poleward portion of which the authors herein term the cusp plume. An extensive survey of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F7 and F9 32 eV to 30 keV precipitating particle data shows that similar dispersive signatures exist over much of the dayside, just poleward of the auroral oval. Away from noon (or more precisely, anywhere not immediately poleward of the cusp) the fluxes are reduced by a factor of about 10 as compared to the cusp plume, butmore » other characteristics are quite similar. For example, the inferred temperatures and flow velocities, and the characteristic decline of energy and number flux with increasing latitude is essentially the same in a longitudinally broad ring of precipitation a few degrees thick in latitude over much of the dayside. They conclude that the field lines on which such precipitation occurs thread the magnetospheric plasma mantle over the entire longitudinally extended ring. Besides the location of occurence (i.e., immediately poleward of the dayside oval), the identification is based especially on the associated very soft ion spectra, which have densities from a few times 10{sup {minus}2} to a few times 10{sup {minus}1}/cm{sup 3}; on the temperature range, which is form from a few tens of eV up to about 200 eV; amd on the characteristic gradients with latitude. Further corroborating evidence that the precipitation is associated with field lines which thread the plasma mantle includes drift meter observations which show that regions so identified based on the particle data consistently lie on antisunward convecting field lines. The observations indicate that some dayside high-latitude auroral features just poleward of the auroral oval are embedded in the plasma mantle.« less

The Poleward Shift of Storm Tracks Under Climate Change: Tracking Cyclones in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspi, Y.; Tamarin, T.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate the distribution of precipitation and wind in the midlatitudes, and therefore their frequency, intensity, and paths have a significant effect on weather and climate. Comprehensive climate models forced by enhanced greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under a climate change scenario, the latitudinal band of storm tracks would shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what is the dominant dynamical mechanism. Here we use a Lagrangian approach to study the poleward shift, by employing a storm-tracking algorithm on an ensemble of CMIP5 models forced by increased CO2 emissions. We demonstrate that in addition to a poleward shift in the latitude of storm genesis, associated with the expansion of the Hadley cell, the averaged cyclonic storm also propagates more poleward until it reaches its maximum intensity. A mechanism for enhanced poleward motion of cyclones in a warmer climate is proposed, supported by idealized global warming experiments, and relates the shift to changes in upper level jet and atmospheric water vapour content. Our results imply that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the averaged latitude of peak cyclone intensity shifts poleward by about 1.2○ (1.0○) in the Atlantic (Pacific) storm track in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and by about 1.6○ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) storm track. These changes in cyclone tracks can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Potential effects of global warming on the distribution of a temperate univoltine insect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Hurd, L.E.

1993-06-01

Poleward migration to remain within temperature tolerance ranges as the earth warms poses a problem for species with limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperate univoltine insect, Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae), is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before killing frost in the fall; too many allow egg hatch prior to killing frost. We combined field observations of dispersal ability with laboratory measurements of the relationship between temperature and maturation rate, and applied these to a global warming model to predict the effect of climate change on regional distribution of this insect by 2100more » A.D. Based on the simplified biological assumptions of our model, T, sinensis would be reduced to local populations in the northern portions and higher elevations of its present broadly contiguous range, and species with similar life histories may face regional or total extinction.« less

Flow Shears at the Poleward Boundary of Omega Bands Observed During Conjunctions of Swarm and THEMIS ASI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiang; Lyons, L. R.; Archer, W. E.; Gallardo-Lacourt, B.; Nishimura, Y.; Zou, Ying; Gabrielse, C.; Weygand, J. M.

2018-02-01

Omega bands are curved aurora forms that evolve from a quiet arc located along the poleward edge of a diffuse auroral band within the midnight to morningside auroral oval. They usually propagate eastward. Because omega bands are a significant contributor to an active magnetotail, knowledge about their generation is important for understanding tail dynamics. Previous studies have shown that auroral streamers, footprints of fast flows in the tail, can propagate into omega bands. Such events, however, are limited, and it is still unclear whether and how the flows trigger the bands. The ionospheric flows associated with omega bands may provide valuable information on the driving mechanisms of the bands. We examine these flows taking advantage of the conjunctions between the Swarm spacecraft and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms all-sky imagers, which allow us to demonstrate the relative location of the flows to the omega bands' bright arcs for the first time. We find that a strong eastward ionospheric flow is consistently present immediately poleward of the omega band's bright arc, resulting in a sharp flow shear near the poleward boundary of the band. This ionospheric flow shear should correspond to a flow shear near the inner edge of the plasma sheet. This plasma sheet shear may drive a Kelvin-Helmholz instability which then distorts the quiet arc to form omega bands. It seems plausible that the strong eastward flows are driven by streamer-related fast flows or enhanced convection in the magnetotail.

The deep Canary poleward undercurrent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velez-Belchi, P. J.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; González-Pola, C.; Fraile, E.; Collins, C. A.; Machín, F.

2012-12-01

Poleward undercurrents are well known features in Eastern Boundary systems. In the California upwelling system (CalCEBS), the deep poleward flow has been observed along the entire outer continental shelf and upper-slope, using indirect methods based on geostrophic estimates and also using direct current measurements. The importance of the poleward undercurrents in the CalCEBS, among others, is to maintain its high productivity by means of the transport of equatorial Pacific waters all the way northward to Vancouver Island and the subpolar gyre but there is also concern about the low oxygen concentration of these waters. However, in the case of the Canary Current Eastern Boundary upwelling system (CanCEBS), there are very few observations of the poleward undercurrent. Most of these observations are short-term mooring records, or drifter trajectories of the upper-slope flow. Hence, the importance of the subsurface poleward flow in the CanCEBS has been only hypothesized. Moreover, due to the large differences between the shape of the coastline and topography between the California and the Canary Current system, the results obtained for the CalCEBS are not completely applicable to the CanCEBS. In this study we report the first direct observations of the continuity of the deep poleward flow of the Canary Deep Poleward undercurrent (CdPU) in the North-Africa sector of the CanCEBS, and one of the few direct observations in the North-Africa sector of the Canary Current eastern boundary. The results indicate that the Canary Island archipelago disrupts the deep poleward undercurrent even at depths where the flow is not blocked by the bathymetry. The deep poleward undercurrent flows west around the eastern-most islands and north east of the Conception Bank to rejoin the intermittent branch that follows the African slope in the Lanzarote Passage. This hypothesis is consistent with the AAIW found west of Lanzarote, as far as 17 W. But also, this hypothesis would be coherent with a cyclonic circulation associated with the Savage Islands, the Conception bank and the Canary Islands sub basin that would redistribute the AAIW northeast of the Canaries.

The poleward shift of South Atlantic Convergence Zone in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zilli, Marcia T.; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Lintner, Benjamin R.

2018-05-01

During austral summer (December-January-February or DJF), intense precipitation over central-eastern Brazil is modulated by the South American Monsoon System and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Previous studies identified spatial variability in precipitation trends over this region, suggestive of a poleward shift of the SACZ in recent years. To identify underlying mechanisms associated with changes in the precipitation intensity and position of the SACZ, decadal averages of observed precipitation and the mean state of the atmosphere and ocean during three different periods from 1979 to 2014 are compared. Results show evidence of decreasing (increasing) average daily precipitation along the equatorward (poleward) margin of the climatological SACZ, likely related to a poleward shift of the convergence zone. Precipitation reduction along the equatorward margin of the SACZ is associated with weakening of the poleward winds along the eastern Brazilian coast and drying of low-to-mid troposphere (700 hPa) over the tropical Atlantic. These changes in circulation and moisture are likely related to the poleward expansion of the South Atlantic Subtropical High.

Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

Thermal tolerance in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus).

PubMed

Yeates, Laura C; Houser, Dorian S

2008-10-01

Water and air temperature are potentially limiting factors to the pole-ward distributions of coastal bottlenose dolphins. This study assessed the lower critical temperature of captive bottlenose dolphins to air temperature (LCT(a)) and water temperature (LCT(w)) through the use of open flow respirometry. Five dolphins, ranging from 14 to 33 years of age and acclimated to the waters of the southern California coast (14.2-22.5 degrees C), were subjected to water temperatures ranging from 0.2 to 18.0 degrees C. Two of the animals were additionally subjected to air temperatures ranging from -2.4 to 17.8 degrees C while maintaining water temperature approximately 3 degrees C above their individual LCT(w). The LCT(w) ranged from 5.5 to 10.6 degrees C and generally decreased with increasing animal mass; for dolphins in excess of 187 kg, the LCT(w) ranged from 5.5 to 5.7 degrees C. No LCT(a) could be determined across the range of air temperatures tested. Core body temperature remained within the limits of normal body temperatures reported for dolphins but demonstrated a direct relationship to water temperature in three subjects and varied across a range of 1.5 degrees C. Air and water temperature had a minimal synergistic effect on dolphin thermoregulation, i.e. water temperature exerted the predominant impact on thermoregulation. For dolphins in excess of 187 kg, water temperature alone would appear to be insufficient to limit the use of habitat north of current bottlenose dolphin ranges along the coastal United States. However, thermal impacts to smaller dolphins, in particular adolescents, neonates and accompanying females, may work in concert with other factors (e.g. prey distribution, predator avoidance, social interactions) to influence coastal residency patterns and population structure.

Geospatial Analysis of Climate-Related Changes in North American Arctic Ecosystems and Implications for Terrestrial Flora and Fauna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.

2016-12-01

Climate change induces range shifts among many terrestrial species in Arctic regions. At best, warming often forces poleward migration if a stable environment is to be maintained. At worst, marginal ecosystems may disappear entirely without a contiguous shift allowing migratory escape to similar environs. These changing migration patterns and poleward range expansion push species into higher latitudes where ecosystems are less stable and more sensitive to change. This project focuses on ecosystem geography and interspecies relationships and interactions by analyzing seasonality and changes over time in variables including the following: temperature, precipitation, vegetation, physical boundaries, population demographics, permafrost, sea ice, and food and water availability. Publicly available data from remote sensing platforms are used throughout, and processed with both commercially available and open sourced GIS tools. This analysis describes observed range changes for selected North American species, and attempts to provide insight into the causes and effects of these phenomena. As the responses to climate change are complex and varied, the goal is to produce the aforementioned results in an easily understood set of geospatial representations to better support decision making regarding conservation prioritization and enable adaptive responses and mitigation strategies.

The past, present and future distribution of a deep-sea shrimp in the Southern Ocean

PubMed Central

Costello, Mark J.

2016-01-01

Shrimps have a widespread distribution across the shelf, slope and seamount regions of the Southern Ocean. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity and adaptability in response to environmental change. We use species distribution models to predict changes in the geographic range of the deep-sea Antarctic shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes under changing climatic conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present and to the year 2100. The present distribution range indicates a pole-ward shift of the shrimp population since the last glaciation. This occurred by colonization of slopes from nearby refugia located around the northern part of Scotia Arc, southern tip of South America, South Georgia, Bouvet Island, southern tip of the Campbell plateau and Kerguelen plateau. By 2100, the shrimp are likely to expand their distribution in east Antarctica but have a continued pole-ward contraction in west Antarctica. The range extension and contraction process followed by the deep-sea shrimp provide a geographic context of how other deep-sea Antarctic species may have survived during the last glaciation and may endure with projected changing climatic conditions in the future. PMID:26925334

The past, present and future distribution of a deep-sea shrimp in the Southern Ocean.

PubMed

Basher, Zeenatul; Costello, Mark J

2016-01-01

Shrimps have a widespread distribution across the shelf, slope and seamount regions of the Southern Ocean. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity and adaptability in response to environmental change. We use species distribution models to predict changes in the geographic range of the deep-sea Antarctic shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes under changing climatic conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present and to the year 2100. The present distribution range indicates a pole-ward shift of the shrimp population since the last glaciation. This occurred by colonization of slopes from nearby refugia located around the northern part of Scotia Arc, southern tip of South America, South Georgia, Bouvet Island, southern tip of the Campbell plateau and Kerguelen plateau. By 2100, the shrimp are likely to expand their distribution in east Antarctica but have a continued pole-ward contraction in west Antarctica. The range extension and contraction process followed by the deep-sea shrimp provide a geographic context of how other deep-sea Antarctic species may have survived during the last glaciation and may endure with projected changing climatic conditions in the future.

Spatial Selection and Local Adaptation Jointly Shape Life-History Evolution during Range Expansion.

PubMed

Van Petegem, Katrien H P; Boeye, Jeroen; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2016-11-01

In the context of climate change and species invasions, range shifts increasingly gain attention because the rates at which they occur in the Anthropocene induce rapid changes in biological assemblages. During range shifts, species experience multiple selection pressures. For poleward expansions in particular, it is difficult to interpret observed evolutionary dynamics because of the joint action of evolutionary processes related to spatial selection and to adaptation toward local climatic conditions. To disentangle the effects of these two processes, we integrated stochastic modeling and data from a common garden experiment, using the spider mite Tetranychus urticae as a model species. By linking the empirical data with those derived form a highly parameterized individual-based model, we infer that both spatial selection and local adaptation contributed to the observed latitudinal life-history divergence. Spatial selection best described variation in dispersal behavior, while variation in development was best explained by adaptation to the local climate. Divergence in life-history traits in species shifting poleward could consequently be jointly determined by contemporary evolutionary dynamics resulting from adaptation to the environmental gradient and from spatial selection. The integration of modeling with common garden experiments provides a powerful tool to study the contribution of these evolutionary processes on life-history evolution during range expansion.

Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daloz, Anne Sophie; Camargo, Suzana J.

2018-01-01

A recent study showed that the global average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve their lifetime-maximum intensity has been migrating poleward at a rate of about one-half degree of latitude per decade over the last 30 years in each hemisphere. However, it does not answer a critical question: is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone lifetime-maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis? In this study we will examine this question. First we analyze changes in the environmental variables associated with tropical cyclone genesis, namely entropy deficit, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, vorticity, skin temperature and specific humidity at 500 hPa in reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2013. Then, a selection of these variables is combined into two tropical cyclone genesis indices that empirically relate tropical cyclone genesis to large-scale variables. We find a shift toward greater (smaller) average potential number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes over most regions of the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with a migration of tropical cyclone genesis towards higher latitudes. We then examine the global best track archive and find coherent and significant poleward shifts in mean genesis position over the Pacific Ocean basins.

Evolved dispersal strategies at range margins

PubMed Central

Dytham, Calvin

2009-01-01

Dispersal is a key component of a species's ecology and will be under different selection pressures in different parts of the range. For example, a long-distance dispersal strategy suitable for continuous habitat at the range core might not be favoured at the margin, where the habitat is sparse. Using a spatially explicit, individual-based, evolutionary simulation model, the dispersal strategies of an organism that has only one dispersal event in its lifetime, such as a plant or sessile animal, are considered. Within the model, removing habitat, increasing habitat turnover, increasing the cost of dispersal, reducing habitat quality or altering vital rates imposes range limits. In most cases, there is a clear change in the dispersal strategies across the range, although increasing death rate towards the margin has little impact on evolved dispersal strategy across the range. Habitat turnover, reduced birth rate and reduced habitat quality all increase evolved dispersal distances at the margin, while increased cost of dispersal and reduced habitat density lead to lower evolved dispersal distances at the margins. As climate change shifts suitable habitat poleward, species ranges will also start to shift, and it will be the dispersal capabilities of marginal populations, rather than core populations, that will influence the rate of range shifting. PMID:19324810

Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).

PubMed

Stephens, Tara; Wilson, Sian C; Cassidy, Ffion; Bender, Darren; Gummer, David; Smith, Des H V; Lloyd, Natasha; McPherson, Jana M; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2018-02-01

Given climate change, species' climatically suitable habitats are increasingly expected to shift poleward. Some imperilled populations towards the poleward edge of their species' range might therefore conceivably benefit from climate change. Interactions between climate and population dynamics may be complex, however, with climate exerting effects both indirectly via influence over food availability and more directly, via effects on physiology and its implications for survival and reproduction. A thorough understanding of these interactions is critical for effective conservation management. We therefore examine the relationship between climate, survival and reproduction in Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs, a threatened keystone species in an imperilled ecosystem at the northern edge of the species' range. Our analyses considered 8 years of annual mark-recapture data (2007-2014) in relation to growing degree days, precipitation, drought status and winter severity, as well as year, sex, age and body mass. Survival was strongly influenced by the interaction of drought and body mass class, and winter temperature severity. Female reproductive status was associated with the interaction of growing degree days and growing season precipitation, with spring precipitation and with winter temperature severity. Results related to body mass suggested that climatic variables exerted their effects via regulation of food availability with potential linked effects of food quality, immunological and behavioural implications, and predation risk. Predictions of future increases in drought conditions in North America's grassland ecosystems have raised concerns for the outlook of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs. Insights gained from the analyses, however, point to mitigating species management options targeted at decoupling the mechanisms by which climate exerts its negative influence. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding the interaction between climate and population dynamics in peripheral populations whose viability might ultimately determine their species' ability to track climatically suitable space. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

In situ analysis of measurements of auroral dynamics and structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mella, Meghan R.

Two auroral sounding rocket case studies, one in the dayside and one in the nightside, explore aspects of poleward boundary aurora. The nightside sounding rocket, Cascades-2 was launched on 20 March 2009 at 11:04:00 UT from the Poker Flat Research Range in Alaska, and flew across a series of poleward boundary intensifications (PBIs). Each of the crossings have fundamentally different in situ electron energy and pitch angle structure, and different ground optics images of visible aurora. The different particle distributions show signatures of both a quasistatic acceleration mechanism and an Alfvenic acceleration mechanism, as well as combinations of both. The Cascades-2 experiment is the first sounding rocket observation of a PBI sequence, enabling a detailed investigation of the electron signatures and optical aurora associated with various stages of a PBI sequence as it evolves from an Alfvenic to a more quasistatic structure. The dayside sounding rocket, Scifer-2 was launched on 18 January 2008 at 7:30 UT from the Andoya Rocket Range in Andenes, Norway. It flew northward through the cleft region during a Poleward Moving Auroral Form (PMAF) event. Both the dayside and nightside flights observe dispersed, precipitating ions, each of a different nature. The dispersion signatures are dependent on, among other things, the MLT sector, altitude, source region, and precipitation mechanism. It is found that small changes in the shape of the dispersion have a large influence on whether the precipitation was localized or extended over a range of altitudes. It is also found that a single Maxwellian source will not replicate the data, but rather, a sum of Maxwellians of different temperature, similar to a Kappa distribution, most closely reproduces the data. The various particle signatures are used to argue that both events have similar magnetospheric drivers, that is, Bursty Bulk Flows in the magnetotail.

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

2010-10-21

To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

2017-12-01

Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Latitudinal shifts in spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks and spruce-fir forest distrbutions with climate change

Treesearch

D.W. Williams; Andrew Liebhold

1997-01-01

Changes in global temperatures over the next century resulting from the greenhouse effect may have profound effects on the distribution and abundance of insect populations. One general hypothesis is the poleward shift of species distributions. We investigated potential range shifts for the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, in the...

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigating synoptic-scale monsoonal disturbances in an idealized moist model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, S.; Ming, Y.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have highlighted the potential utility of a theory for a "moisture-dynamical" instability in explaining the time and spatial scales of intra-seasonal variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon. These studies suggest that a localized region in the subtropics with mean low-level westerly winds and mean temperature increasing poleward will allow the formation of westward propagating precipitation anomalies associated with moist Rossby-like waves. Here we test this theory in an idealized moist model with realistic radiative transfer by inducing a local poleward-increasing temperature gradient by placing a continent with simplified hydrology in the subtropics. We experiment with different treatments of land-surface hydrology, ranging from the extreme (treating land as having the same heat capacity as the slab ocean used in the model, and turning off evaporation completely over land) to the more realistic (bucket hydrology, with a decreased heat capacity over land), and different continental shapes, ranging from a zonally-symmetric continent, to Earth-like continental geometry. Precipitation rates produced by the simulations are analyzed using space-time spectral analysis, and connected to variability in the winds through regression analysis. The observed behavior is discussed with respect to predictions from the theory.

Determining the Extent and Characterizing Coral Reef Habitats of the Northern Latitudes of the Florida Reef Tract (Martin County)

PubMed Central

Walker, Brian K.; Gilliam, David S.

2013-01-01

Climate change has recently been implicated in poleward shifts of many tropical species including corals; thus attention focused on higher-latitude coral communities is warranted to investigate possible range expansions and ecosystem shifts due to global warming. As the northern extension of the Florida Reef Tract (FRT), the third-largest barrier reef ecosystem in the world, southeast Florida (25–27° N latitude) is a prime region to study such effects. Most of the shallow-water FRT benthic habitats have been mapped, however minimal data and limited knowledge exist about the coral reef communities of its northernmost reaches off Martin County. First benthic habitat mapping was conducted using newly acquired high resolution LIDAR bathymetry and aerial photography where possible to map the spatial extent of coral reef habitats. Quantitative data were collected to characterize benthic cover and stony coral demographics and a comprehensive accuracy assessment was performed. The data were then analyzed in a habitat biogeography context to determine if a new coral reef ecosystem region designation was warranted. Of the 374 km2 seafloor mapped, 95.2% was Sand, 4.1% was Coral Reef and Colonized Pavement, and 0.7% was Other Delineations. Map accuracy assessment yielded an overall accuracy of 94.9% once adjusted for known map marginal proportions. Cluster analysis of cross-shelf habitat type and widths indicated that the benthic habitats were different than those further south and warranted designation of a new coral reef ecosystem region. Unlike the FRT further south, coral communities were dominated by cold-water tolerant species and LIDAR morphology indicated no evidence of historic reef growth during warmer climates. Present-day hydrographic conditions may be inhibiting poleward expansion of coral communities along Florida. This study provides new information on the benthic community composition of the northern FRT, serving as a baseline for future community shift and range expansion investigations. PMID:24282542

Determining the extent and characterizing coral reef habitats of the northern latitudes of the Florida Reef Tract (Martin County).

PubMed

Walker, Brian K; Gilliam, David S

2013-01-01

Climate change has recently been implicated in poleward shifts of many tropical species including corals; thus attention focused on higher-latitude coral communities is warranted to investigate possible range expansions and ecosystem shifts due to global warming. As the northern extension of the Florida Reef Tract (FRT), the third-largest barrier reef ecosystem in the world, southeast Florida (25-27° N latitude) is a prime region to study such effects. Most of the shallow-water FRT benthic habitats have been mapped, however minimal data and limited knowledge exist about the coral reef communities of its northernmost reaches off Martin County. First benthic habitat mapping was conducted using newly acquired high resolution LIDAR bathymetry and aerial photography where possible to map the spatial extent of coral reef habitats. Quantitative data were collected to characterize benthic cover and stony coral demographics and a comprehensive accuracy assessment was performed. The data were then analyzed in a habitat biogeography context to determine if a new coral reef ecosystem region designation was warranted. Of the 374 km(2) seafloor mapped, 95.2% was Sand, 4.1% was Coral Reef and Colonized Pavement, and 0.7% was Other Delineations. Map accuracy assessment yielded an overall accuracy of 94.9% once adjusted for known map marginal proportions. Cluster analysis of cross-shelf habitat type and widths indicated that the benthic habitats were different than those further south and warranted designation of a new coral reef ecosystem region. Unlike the FRT further south, coral communities were dominated by cold-water tolerant species and LIDAR morphology indicated no evidence of historic reef growth during warmer climates. Present-day hydrographic conditions may be inhibiting poleward expansion of coral communities along Florida. This study provides new information on the benthic community composition of the northern FRT, serving as a baseline for future community shift and range expansion investigations.

Characteristics of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in relation to transionospheric satellite links around the northern crest in the Indian longitude sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, A.; Paul, K. S.; Halder, S.; Basu, K.; Paul, A.

2014-02-01

The poleward gradient of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) introduces more intense propagation effects on transionospheric satellite links in comparison to the equatorward gradient. Characterization of the poleward gradient was performed during March-April, August-October 2011 and March-April 2012 using GPS total electron content (TEC) recorded from a chain of stations located more or less along the same meridian (88.5° E) at Calcutta, Baharampore, Farakka and Siliguri. The poleward gradients calculated on magnetically quiet days at elevation in excess of 50° at 14:00, 15:00 and 16:00 LT were found to have a strong correlation with GPS S4 observed from Calcutta during post-sunset-to-midnight hours. A threshold value of poleward TEC gradient is calculated above which there is a probability of scintillation at Calcutta with S4 ≥ 0.4.

Subsurface Zonal and Meridional Flows from SDO/HMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komm, Rudolf; Howe, Rachel; Hill, Frank

2016-10-01

We study the solar-cycle variation of the zonal and meridional flows in the near-surface layers of the solar convection zone from the surface to a depth of about 16 Mm. The flows are determined from SDO/HMI Dopplergrams using the HMI ring-diagram pipeline. The zonal and meridional flows vary with the solar cycle. Bands of faster-than-average zonal flows together with more-poleward-than-average meridional flows move from mid-latitudes toward the equator during the solar cycle and are mainly located on the equatorward side of the mean latitude of solar magnetic activity. Similarly, bands of slower-than-average zonal flows together with less-poleward-than-average meridional flows are located on the poleward side of the mean latitude of activity. Here, we will focus on the variation of these flows at high latitudes (poleward of 50 degree) that are now accessible using HMI data. We will present the latest results.

Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change.

PubMed

Atkins, K E; Travis, J M J

2010-10-07

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strong upslope shifts in Chimborazo's vegetation over two centuries since Humboldt.

PubMed

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Engemann, Kristine; Sandoval-Acuña, Pablo; Jonas, Jeremy D; Segnitz, R Max; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-10-13

Global climate change is driving species poleward and upward in high-latitude regions, but the extent to which the biodiverse tropics are similarly affected is poorly known due to a scarcity of historical records. In 1802, Alexander von Humboldt ascended the Chimborazo volcano in Ecuador. He recorded the distribution of plant species and vegetation zones along its slopes and in surrounding parts of the Andes. We revisited Chimborazo in 2012, precisely 210 y after Humboldt's expedition. We documented upward shifts in the distribution of vegetation zones as well as increases in maximum elevation limits of individual plant taxa of >500 m on average. These range shifts are consistent with increased temperatures and glacier retreat on Chimborazo since Humboldt's study. Our findings provide evidence that global warming is strongly reshaping tropical plant distributions, consistent with Humboldt's proposal that climate is the primary control on the altitudinal distribution of vegetation.

Strong upslope shifts in Chimborazo's vegetation over two centuries since Humboldt

PubMed Central

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Engemann, Kristine; Sandoval-Acuña, Pablo; Jonas, Jeremy D.; Segnitz, R. Max; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-01-01

Global climate change is driving species poleward and upward in high-latitude regions, but the extent to which the biodiverse tropics are similarly affected is poorly known due to a scarcity of historical records. In 1802, Alexander von Humboldt ascended the Chimborazo volcano in Ecuador. He recorded the distribution of plant species and vegetation zones along its slopes and in surrounding parts of the Andes. We revisited Chimborazo in 2012, precisely 210 y after Humboldt’s expedition. We documented upward shifts in the distribution of vegetation zones as well as increases in maximum elevation limits of individual plant taxa of >500 m on average. These range shifts are consistent with increased temperatures and glacier retreat on Chimborazo since Humboldt’s study. Our findings provide evidence that global warming is strongly reshaping tropical plant distributions, consistent with Humboldt’s proposal that climate is the primary control on the altitudinal distribution of vegetation. PMID:26371298

Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate.

PubMed

Sandeep, S; Ajayamohan, R S; Boos, William R; Sabin, T P; Praveen, V

2018-03-13

Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its ∼600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario. The distribution of LPS genesis shifts poleward as it weakens, with oceanic genesis decreasing by ∼60% and continental genesis increasing by ∼10%; over land the increase in storm counts is accompanied by a shift toward lower storm wind speeds. The weakening and poleward shift of the genesis distribution in a warmer climate are confirmed and attributed, via a statistical model, to the reduction and poleward shift of low-level absolute vorticity over the monsoon region, which in turn are robust features of most coupled model projections. The poleward shift in LPS activity results in an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events over northern India. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate

PubMed Central

Boos, William R.; Sabin, T. P.; Praveen, V.

2018-01-01

Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its ∼600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario. The distribution of LPS genesis shifts poleward as it weakens, with oceanic genesis decreasing by ∼60% and continental genesis increasing by ∼10%; over land the increase in storm counts is accompanied by a shift toward lower storm wind speeds. The weakening and poleward shift of the genesis distribution in a warmer climate are confirmed and attributed, via a statistical model, to the reduction and poleward shift of low-level absolute vorticity over the monsoon region, which in turn are robust features of most coupled model projections. The poleward shift in LPS activity results in an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events over northern India. PMID:29483270

Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandeep, S.; Ajayamohan, R. S.; Boos, William R.; Sabin, T. P.; Praveen, V.

2018-03-01

Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its ˜600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario. The distribution of LPS genesis shifts poleward as it weakens, with oceanic genesis decreasing by ˜60% and continental genesis increasing by ˜10%; over land the increase in storm counts is accompanied by a shift toward lower storm wind speeds. The weakening and poleward shift of the genesis distribution in a warmer climate are confirmed and attributed, via a statistical model, to the reduction and poleward shift of low-level absolute vorticity over the monsoon region, which in turn are robust features of most coupled model projections. The poleward shift in LPS activity results in an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events over northern India.

Ecological and life-history traits explain recent boundary shifts in elevation and latitude of western North American songbirds

Treesearch

Sonya K. Auer; David I. King

2014-01-01

Species are expected to move uphill or poleward in response to climate change, yet their distributions show idiosyncratic responses; many species are moving in the predicted direction, but others are not shifting at all or are shifting downhill or towards the equator. Fundamental questions remain about the causes of interspecific variation in range responses and...

Poleward force at the kinetochore in metaphase depends on the number of kinetochore microtubules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hays, T.S.; Salmon, E.D.

1990-02-01

To examine the dependence of poleward force at a kinetochore on the number of kinetochore microtubules (kMTs), we altered the normal balance in the number of microtubules at opposing homologous kinetochores in meiosis I grasshopper spermatocytes at metaphase with a focused laser microbeam. Observations were made with light and electron microscopy. Irradiations that partially damaged one homologous kinetochore caused the bivalent chromosome to shift to a new equilibrium position closer to the pole to which the unirradiated kinetochore was tethered; the greater the dose of irradiation, the farther the chromosome moved. The number of kMTs on the irradiated kinetochore decreasedmore » with severity of irradiation, while the number of kMTs on the unirradiated kinetochore remained constant and independent of chromosome-to-pole distance. Assuming a balance of forces on the chromosome at congression equilibrium, our results demonstrate that the net poleward force on a chromosome depends on the number of kMTs and the distance from the pole. In contrast, the velocity of chromosome movement showed little dependence on the number of kMTs. Possible mechanisms which explain the relationship between the poleward force at a kinetochore, the number of kinetochore microtubules, and the lengths of the kinetochore fibers at congression equilibrium include a traction fiber model in which poleward force producers are distributed along the length of the kinetochore fibers, or a kinetochore motor-polar ejection model in which force producers located at or near the kinetochore pull the chromosomes poleward along the kMTs and against an ejection force that is produced by the polar microtubule array and increases in strength toward the pole.« less

Molecular mechanisms of microtubule-dependent kinetochore transport toward spindle poles

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Kozo; Kitamura, Etsushi; Kitamura, Yoko; Tanaka, Tomoyuki U.

2007-01-01

In mitosis, kinetochores are initially captured by the lateral sides of single microtubules and are subsequently transported toward spindle poles. Mechanisms for kinetochore transport are not yet known. We present two mechanisms involved in microtubule-dependent poleward kinetochore transport in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. First, kinetochores slide along the microtubule lateral surface, which is mainly and probably exclusively driven by Kar3, a kinesin-14 family member that localizes at kinetochores. Second, kinetochores are tethered at the microtubule distal ends and pulled poleward as microtubules shrink (end-on pulling). Kinetochore sliding is often converted to end-on pulling, enabling more processive transport, but the opposite conversion is rare. The establishment of end-on pulling is partly hindered by Kar3, and its progression requires the Dam1 complex. We suggest that the Dam1 complexes, which probably encircle a single microtubule, can convert microtubule depolymerization into the poleward kinetochore-pulling force. Thus, microtubule-dependent poleward kinetochore transport is ensured by at least two distinct mechanisms. PMID:17620411

Generation of poleward moving auroral forms (PMAFs) during periods of dayside auroral oval expansions/contractions and periods when the dayside auroral oval is expanded and stable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fasel, G. J.; Flicker, J.; Sibeck, D. G.; Alyami, M.; Angelo, A.; Aylward, R. J.; Bender, S.; Christensen, M.; Kim, J.; Kristensen, H.; Orellana, Y.; Sahin, O.; Yoon, J.; Green, D.; Sigernes, F.; Lorentzen, D. A.

2013-12-01

The latitude of the equatorial edge of the dayside auroral oval has been shown to vary with the direction of the IMF Bz-component. The equatorward/poleward edge of the dayside auroral oval shifts equatorward/poleward when the IMF Bz-component is negative/positive [Burch, 1973; Akasofu, 1977; Horwitz and Akasofu, 1977; Sandholt et al., 1986, 1988]. Past studies have shown that poleward-moving auroral forms (PMAFs) are a common feature during equatorward expansions of the dayside auroral oval. Horwitz and Akasofu [1977] noted a one-to-one correspondence of luminous PMAFs associated with an equatorward expansion of the dayside auroral oval. During the southward turning of the IMF Bz-component the merging rate on the dayside increases [Newell and Meng, 1987] leading to the erosion of the dayside magnetopause. The field line merging process is thought to be most efficient when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz-component turns southward. Both Vorobjev et al. [1975] and Horwitz and Akasofu [1977] attributed these PMAFs to magnetic flux being eroded away from the dayside magnetopause and transported antisunward. Dayside poleward-moving auroral forms are also observed during periods of an expanded and stable dayside auroral oval for both northern and southern hemisphere observations [Sandholt et al., 1986, 1989, 1990; Rairden and Mende, 1989; Mende et al., 1990]. Poleward-moving auroral forms have also been observed during some dayside oval contractions but have not been discussed much in the literature. This study examines the dayside auroral oval during periods of expansion, contraction, and during periods of an expanded and stable dayside auroral oval. This statistical study will provide the following results: number of poleward-moving auroral forms that are generated during dayside auroral oval expansions/contractions and during periods of a stable and expanded dayside auroral oval, the average initial and final elevation angle of the dayside auroral oval, time for dayside auroral oval to expand or contract, and the solar wind parameters (IMF Bx, By, Bz, speed, and pressure) associated with each interval (expansion, contraction, or stable and expanded).

Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

2011-12-20

The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraintsmore » - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant response of species to climate change, but our experiments suggest that other processes may act in some species that reduce the likelihood of geographic range change. In the first part of our DOE grant (ending 2008) we argued that the process of local adaptation of populations within a species range, followed by climatic changes that occur too quickly for adaptive evolution, is an underappreciated mechanism by which climate change could affect biodiversity. When this process acts, species ranges may not shift readily toward the poles, slowing the rate of species and biome change. To test this claim, we performed an experiment comparing core and peripheral populations in a series of field observations, translocation experiments, and genetic analyses. The papers in Appendix A were generated from 2005-2008 funding. In the second part of the DOE grant (ending 2011) we studied which traits promote population differentiation and local adaptation by building genomic resources for our study species and using these resources to reveal differences in gene expression in peripheral and core populations. The papers in Appendix B were generated from 2008-2011 funding. This work was pursued with two butterfly species that have contrasting life history traits (body size and resource specialization) and occupy a common ecosystem and a latitudinal range. These species enabled us to test the following hypotheses using a single phylogenetic group.« less

Understanding the robustness of Hadley cell response to wide variations in ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rencurrel, M. C.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

One important aspect of our climate system is the relationship between surface climate and the poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Previous studies have shown that increases in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) tend to warm the midlatitudes without strongly affecting tropical SSTs, resulting in a reduction in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. This "tropical thermostat" effect depends crucially on a slowdown of the Hadley circulation (HC), with consequent changes in surface evaporation, atmospheric water vapor, and cloudiness. Here we extend previous studies by considering a wide range of spatial patterns of OHT, which we impose in a suite of slab-ocean aquaplanet GCM simulations. The forcing patterns are idealized but sample a variety of ocean circulation features. We find that the tropical thermostat and HC slowdown effects are relatively robust across all forcing patterns. A 1 PW increase in the amplitude of the prescribed OHT spatial pattern results in a global mean warming and a roughly 5 x 1010 kg/s decrease in HC mass flux, regardless of the detailed spatial structure of the imposed OHT. While the rate of HC slowdown is relatively robust, the mechanisms driving it are less so. Smaller, equator-to-subtropical scale OHT patterns are associated with greater reduced Gross Moist Stability (GMS) than the larger-scale OHT patterns. As the imposed OHT is limited equatorward, the HC becomes less efficient at transporting energy out of the tropics, implying that GMS has a modulating effect on the dynamical response of the cell. These experiments offer some new insights on the interplay between atmospheric dynamics and the radiative and hydrological aspects of global climate.

Response of the midlatitude jets and of their variability to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Elizabeth; Polvani, Lorenzo

2013-04-01

This work documents how the midlatitude, eddy-driven jets respond to climate change using output from 72 model integrations run for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We consider separately the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere jets. Unlike previous studies, we do not limit our analysis to annual mean changes in the latitude and speed of the jets only, but also explore how the daily variability of each jet changes with increased greenhouse gases. Given the direct connection between synoptic activity and the location of the eddy-driven jet, changes in jet variability directly relate to the changes in the future storm tracks. We find that all jets migrate poleward with climate change: the Southern Hemisphere jet shifts poleward by 2 degrees of latitude between the Historical period and the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, whereas the Northern Hemisphere jets shift by only 1 degree. The speed of the Southern Hemisphere jet also increases markedly (by 1.2 m/s between 850-700 hPa), while the speed remains nearly constant for both jets in the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonality of the jet shifts will also be addressed, whereby the largest poleward jet shift occurs in the autumn of each hemisphere (i.e. MAM for the Southern Hemisphere jet, and SON for the North Atlantic and North Pacific jets). We find that the structure of the daily jet variability is a strong function of the jet position in all three sectors of the globe. For the Southern Hemisphere and the North Atlantic jets, the variability becomes less of a north-south wobbling (i.e. an `annular mode') with a poleward shift of the jet. In contrast, for the North Pacific jet, the variability becomes less of a pulsing and more of a north-south wobbling. In spite of these differences, we are able find a mechanism (based on Rossby wave breaking) that is able to explain many of the changes in jet variability within a single theoretical framework.

Meteorological analysis of the eruption of soufriere in april 1979.

PubMed

Barr, S; Heffter, J L

1982-06-04

Meteorological upper-air data, in conjunction with satellite imagery, lidar light detection and ranging returns, and aircraft sampling, aid in the determination of plume altitude and transport. The estimated trajectories indicate that the ash was transported eastward across the Atlantic to Africa in 3 to 5 days and that there was modest meridional transport as far as 15 degrees poleward during the first week of travel.

Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population

PubMed Central

van den Hoff, John; McMahon, Clive R.; Simpkins, Graham R.; Hindell, Mark A.; Alderman, Rachael; Burton, Harry R.

2014-01-01

As the effects of regional climate change are most pronounced at polar latitudes, we might expect polar-ward migratory populations to respond as habitat suitability changes. The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina L.) is a pole-ward migratory species whose populations have mostly stabilized or increased in the past decade, the one exception being the Macquarie Island population which has decreased continuously over the past 50 years. To explore probable causes of this anomalous trend, we counted breeding female seals annually between 1988 and 2011 in order to relate annual rates of population change (r) to foraging habitat changes that have known connections with atmospheric variability. We found r (i) varied annually from −0.016 to 0.021 over the study period, (ii) was most effected by anomalous atmospheric variability after a 3 year time lag was introduced (R = 0.51) and (iii) was associated with sea-ice duration (SID) within the seals’ foraging range at the same temporal lag. Negative r years may be extrapolated to explain, at least partially, the overall trend in seal abundance at Macquarie Island; specifically, increasing SID within the seals foraging range has a negative influence on their abundance at the island. Evidence is accruing that suggests southern elephant seal populations may respond positively to a reduced sea-ice field. PMID:24619437

Effects of hypoxia and ocean acidification on the upper thermal niche boundaries of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Ern, Rasmus; Johansen, Jacob L; Rummer, Jodie L; Esbaugh, Andrew J

2017-07-01

Rising ocean temperatures are predicted to cause a poleward shift in the distribution of marine fishes occupying the extent of latitudes tolerable within their thermal range boundaries. A prevailing theory suggests that the upper thermal limits of fishes are constrained by hypoxia and ocean acidification. However, some eurythermal fish species do not conform to this theory, and maintain their upper thermal limits in hypoxia. Here we determine if the same is true for stenothermal species. In three coral reef fish species we tested the effect of hypoxia on upper thermal limits, measured as critical thermal maximum (CT max ). In one of these species we also quantified the effect of hypoxia on oxygen supply capacity, measured as aerobic scope (AS). In this species we also tested the effect of elevated CO 2 (simulated ocean acidification) on the hypoxia sensitivity of CT max We found that CT max was unaffected by progressive hypoxia down to approximately 35 mmHg, despite a substantial hypoxia-induced reduction in AS. Below approximately 35 mmHg, CT max declined sharply with water oxygen tension ( P w O 2 ). Furthermore, the hypoxia sensitivity of CT max was unaffected by elevated CO 2 Our findings show that moderate hypoxia and ocean acidification do not constrain the upper thermal limits of these tropical, stenothermal fishes. © 2017 The Author(s).

Geomorphic evidence for the distribution of ground ice on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Squyres, S. W.; Carr, M.H.

1986-01-01

High-resolution Viking orbiter images show evidence for quasi-viscous relaxation of topography. The relaxation is believed to be due to creep deformation of ice in near-surface materials. The global distribution of the inferred ground ice shows a pronounced latitudinal dependence. The equatorial regions of Mars appear to be ice-poor, while the heavily cratered terrain poleward of ??30?? latitude appears to be ice-rich. The style of creep poleward of ??30?? varies with latitude, possibly due to variations in ice rheology with temperature. The distribution suggests that ice at low latitudes, which is not in equilibrium with the present atmosphere, has been lost via sublimation and diffusion through the regolith, thereby causing a net poleward transport of ice over martian history.

Phenology of species interactions in response to climate change: two case studies of plant-pollinator interactions using long-term data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, A. M.; Inouye, D. W.

2012-12-01

Climate change may alter the temporal overlap among interacting taxa with potential demographic consequences. Evidence of mistimed interactions in response to climate change, especially between plants and pollinators, is mixed, and few long-term datasets exist to test for changes in synchrony. Furthermore, advancements in flowering driven by climate change are especially pronounced at higher latitudes, so that migratory pollinators from lower latitudes may increasingly arrive at breeding grounds after the appearance of floral resources. We explored long-term shifts in phenological synchrony in two plant-pollinator systems:1) syrphid fly and flowering phenology in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA (1992-2011) and 2) hummingbird arrival relative to onset of early-season nectar resources in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (1975-2011) and the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA (1984-2010). We investigated the abiotic cues associated with the phenology of the activity period of syrphid flies and their floral resources, including degree days above freezing, precipitation, and timing of snowmelt as potential explanatory variables. Timing of snowmelt was the best predictor of the onset of flowering and syrphid emergence. Snowmelt was also the best predictor of the end of flowering, while temperature and precipitation best predicted the end of the syrphid period. Both the onset and end of flowering advanced more rapidly than syrphids in response to earlier snowmelt. These different rates of phenological advancement resulted in increased temporal overlap between the flower and syrphid community in years of early snowmelt, because of longer flowering and fly activity periods during these years. If snowmelt continues to advance, temporal overlap between syrphids and their floral resources is therefore likely to increase. This case study shows that the phenology of interacting taxa may respond differently to climate cues, but that this does not necessarily lead to phenological mismatch. To explore the hypothesis that changes in phenological synchrony will occur at the northern edge of the breeding range of migratory pollinators, we compared dates of first arrival of Broad-tailed Hummingbirds (Selasphorus platycercus) to dates of flowering of plants they visit for nectar. Near the southern limit of the breeding range, neither hummingbird arrival nor first flowering dates have changed significantly over the past few decades. Near the northern limit of the breeding range, first and peak flowering of early-season food plants have shifted to earlier dates, resulting in a shorter interval between appearance of first hummingbirds and first flowers. If phenological shifts continue at current rates, hummingbirds will eventually arrive at northern breeding grounds after flowering begins, which could reduce their nesting success. This problem could be compounded by a mid-season drop in flower availability that is appearing as the growing season starts earlier. These results support the prediction that migratory species may experience the greatest phenological mismatches at the poleward limits of their migration. A novel hypothesis based on these results posits that the poleward limit for some species may contract toward lower latitudes under continued warming.

The first close-up images of Jupiter's polar regions: Results from the Juno mission JunoCam instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, Glenn S.; Hansen, Candice; Caplinger, Michael; Ravine, Michael; Atreya, Sushil; Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Jensen, Elsa; Momary, Thomas; Lipkaman, Leslie; Krysak, Daniel; Zimdar, Robert; Bolton, Scott

2017-05-01

During Juno's first perijove encounter, the JunoCam instrument acquired the first images of Jupiter's polar regions at 50-70 km spatial scale at low emission angles. Poleward of 64-68° planetocentric latitude, where Jupiter's east-west banded structure breaks down, several types of discrete features appear on a darker background. Cyclonic oval features are clustered near both poles. Other oval-shaped features are also present, ranging in size from 2000 km down to JunoCam's resolution limits. The largest and brightest features often have chaotic shapes. Two narrow linear features in the north, associated with an overlying haze feature, traverse tens of degrees of longitude. JunoCam also detected an optically thin cloud or haze layer past the northern nightside terminator estimated to be 58 ± 21 km (approximately three scale heights) above the main cloud deck. JunoCam will acquire polar images on every perijove, allowing us to track the state and evolution of longer-lived features.

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations of future changes in landfalling atmospheric rivers over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture inmore » the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.« less

Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration.

PubMed

Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich

2018-04-23

With lengthening growing seasons but increased temperature variability under climate change, frost damage to plants may remain a risk and could be exacerbated by poleward planting of warm-adapted seed sources. Here, we study cold adaptation of tree populations in a wide-ranging coniferous species in western North America to inform limits to seed transfer. Using tree-ring signatures of cold damage from common garden trials designed to study genetic population differentiation, we find opposing geographic clines for spring frost and fall frost damage. Provenances from northern regions are sensitive to spring frosts, while the more productive provenances from central and southern regions are more susceptible to fall frosts. Transferring the southern, warm-adapted genotypes northward causes a significant loss of growth and a permanent rank change after a spring frost event. We conclude that cold adaptation should remain an important consideration when implementing seed transfers designed to mitigate harmful effects of climate change.

Poleward currents from coastal altimetry: The west coast of Southern Baja California, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valle-Rodríguez, J.; Trasviña-Castro, A.

2017-05-01

The west coast of Southern Baja California is subject to intense seasonal variability, presenting lowest temperatures from February to April partly due to the upwelling season but also to cold water advection associated to the California Current. The summer advance of a poleward current is responsible for the coastal temperature maxima. In this work we use a time series of currents from a moored Acoustic Doppler Profiler (ADP) to validate coastal altimetry data, in order to study seasonal and interannual coastal current variability. Almost eleven years of coastal altimetry data (2002-2012) from X-TRACK, 20-40 km from the coast, reveal a persistent seasonal poleward flow from July to October and equatorward flow, modulated by mesoscale processes the rest of the year. Near the coast of the peninsula sea level raises towards the coast while the poleward current carries a warm water mass against the climatological wind. It is present from July to October in a coastal band 100 km wide from the surface to 80 m depth with speeds 0.2-0.3 m s-1. The interannual variability observed in this period is unusually weak, compared to the previous decade.

Observations of the electron density perturbation in the cusp irregularities during the ICI-2 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Takumi; Moen, J. I.

The ICI-2 (Investigation of Cusp Irregularities-2) sounding rocket campaign was conducted in Svalbard, Norway on December 2008. The scientific objective of ICI-2 is to investigate genera-tion mechanism(s) of coherent HF radar backscatter targets. Strong coherent HF backscatter echoes are well-known phenomena in the polar ionospheric cusp, and are thought to result from field-aligned plasma irregularities with decameter scale length. However, the generation mech-anism of backscatter targets has not yet been understood, and even the altitude profile of HF cusp backscatter is unknown. The ICI-2 rocket was launched at 10:35:10 UT at Ny-˚lesund, A and reached an apogee of 330 km at about 5 minutes after the launch. All onboard systems functioned flawlessly. A comprehensive measurement of the electron density, low energy elec-tron flux, medium energy particle flux, AC and DC electric fields was conducted to exploit the potential role of the gradient drift instability versus the other suggested mechanisms. We present a result obtained from a Fixed-Biased Probe (FBP) which was aimed at measuring fine-scale (< 1 m) electron density perturbation. Our analysis of the FBP data during the rocket's flight indicates that the rocket traversed HF backscatter regions where the electron density perturbation is relatively large. The power spectrum analysis of the electron density shows that the amplitude increases not only in the decameter wavelength but also in the broad range of frequency. Characteristic features of the electron density perturbation are summarized as follows: 1) A strong perturbation of the electron density was observed by the FBP when the ICI-2 rocket passed through a front side of the poleward moving 630 nm emission region which was identified by the all-sky imager. This means that the electron density perturbation and the 630 nm emission are observed to coexist in the same region. 2) The absolute value of the electron density becomes larger in the disturbed region than in the surrounding region. The electron density gradient in the boundary with the outer region is larger in the equatorward side than in the poleward side. 3) The amplitude of the electron density perturbation is remarkably large in the equatorward edge rather than the poleward boundaries. 4) The FBP identified the electron density perturbation at three different altitudes during the rocket flight. This indicates that the perturbation likely exists not only within the narrow limits but in a larger extent in the vertical direction.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Treesearch

Lisa A. McCauley; Christine A. Ribic; Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

2017-01-01

Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few...

The Effect of Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) on Ionosphere and Thermosphere during 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm: Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, J.; Deng, Y.; Zhang, D.; Lu, Y.; Sheng, C.

2017-12-01

Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) are incorporated into the non-hydrostatic Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), revealing the complex effects on neutral dynamics and ion-neutral coupling processes. The intense westward ion stream could enhance the neutral zonal wind within the SAPS channel. Through neutral dynamics the neutrals then divide into two streams, one turns poleward and the other turns equatorward, forming a two-cell pattern in the SAPS-changed wind. The significant Joule heating induced by SAPS also leads to traveling atmospheric disturbances (TAD) accompanied by traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID), increasing the total electron content (TEC) by 2-8 TECu in the mid-latitude ionosphere. We investigate the potential causes of the reported poleward wind surge during the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015. It is confirmed that Coriolis force on the westward zonal wind can contribute the poleward wind during post-SAPS interval. In addition, the simulations imply that the sudden decrease of heating rate within auroral oval could result in a TAD propagating equatorward, which could also be responsible for the sudden poleward wind surge. This study highlights the complicated effects of SAPS on ion-neutral coupling and neutral dynamics.

Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.

PubMed

Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela

2015-09-07

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. © 2015 The Authors.

Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

PubMed Central

Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V.; Aschan, Michaela

2015-01-01

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. PMID:26336179

Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

PubMed Central

Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.

2014-01-01

Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460

Storm Time Global Observations of Large-Scale TIDs From Ground-Based and In Situ Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habarulema, John Bosco; Yizengaw, Endawoke; Katamzi-Joseph, Zama T.; Moldwin, Mark B.; Buchert, Stephan

2018-01-01

This paper discusses the ionosphere's response to the largest storm of solar cycle 24 during 16-18 March 2015. We have used the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) total electron content data to study large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) over the American, African, and Asian regions. Equatorward large-scale TIDs propagated and crossed the equator to the other side of the hemisphere especially over the American and Asian sectors. Poleward TIDs with velocities in the range ≈400-700 m/s have been observed during local daytime over the American and African sectors with origin from around the geomagnetic equator. Our investigation over the American sector shows that poleward TIDs may have been launched by increased Lorentz coupling as a result of penetrating electric field during the southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz. We have observed increase in SWARM satellite electron density (Ne) at the same time when equatorward large-scale TIDs are visible over the European-African sector. The altitude Ne profiles from ionosonde observations show a possible link that storm-induced TIDs may have influenced the plasma distribution in the topside ionosphere at SWARM satellite altitude.

Simultaneous observation of the poleward expansion of substorm electrojet activity and the tailward expansion of current sheet disruption in the near-earth magnetotail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez, R. E.; Koskinen, H. E. J.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Bosinger, T.; Mcentire, R. W.; Potemra, T. A.

1993-01-01

A substorm that occurred on 7 June 1985 at 2209 UT for which simultaneous measurements from ground stations and CCE are available is considered. The event occurred during a close conjunction between CCE, the EISCAT magnetometer cross, and the STARE radar, allowing a detailed comparison of satellite and ground-based data. Two discrete activations took place during the first few minutes of this substorm: the expansion phase onset at 2209 UT and an intensification at 2212 UT, corresponding to a poleward expansion of activity. The energetic particle data indicate that the active region of the magnetotail during the 2212 UT intensification was located tailward of the active region at 2209 UT. This is direct evidence for a correspondence between tailward expansion of localized activity in the near-earth magnetotail (current disruption and particle energization) and poleward expansion of activity (electrojet formation) in the ionosphere.

Midlatitude Cloud Shifts, Their Primary Link to the Hadley Cell, and Their Diverse Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tselioudis, George; Lipat, Bernard R.; Konsta, Dimitra; Grise, Kevin M.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2016-01-01

We investigate the interannual relationship among clouds, their radiative effects, and two key indices of the atmospheric circulation: the latitudinal positions of the Hadley cell edge and the midlatitude jet. From reanalysis data and satellite observations, we find a clear and consistent relationship between the width of the Hadley cell and the high cloud field, statistically significant in nearly all regions and seasons. In contrast, shifts of the midlatitude jet correlate significantly with high cloud shifts only in the North Atlantic region during the winter season. While in that region and season poleward high cloud shifts are associated with shortwave radiative warming, over the Southern Oceans during all seasons they are associated with shortwave radiative cooling. Finally, a trend analysis reveals that poleward high cloud shifts observed over the 1983-2009 period are more likely related to Hadley cell expansion, rather than poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets.

A Study of Reconnection Poleward of Cusp: Cluster and Polar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzamil, Fathima

Asymmetries in plasma density and the presence of a guide field significantly alter the structure of the ion diffusion region (IDR) in symmetric, collisionless reconnection. These features have been shown by numerical simulations under moderate density asymmetries ( 10), and theoretical analyses. However, very few studies have addressed these issues with in-situ observations, particularly at high magnetic latitudes. By the structure of the IDR we refer to features such as the non-colocation of the X-line and stagnation line, the distortion of the Hall magnetic and electric fields, outflow speed, outflow density etc. We have compiled a collection of Cluster crossings of the high-latitude magnetopause poleward of the cusp under northward interplanetary magnetic field in the years 2001-2008. We identified 18 events that fulfilled the criteria that was used as plausible evidence for an IDR crossing. A wide range of guide fields (6 to 74%) and very high density asymmetries (over three orders of magnitude) were present in this event list. The total DC electric field ranged from 10 mV/m-72 mV/m. We compared theoretical predictions for ion outflow speed and density against measured values for events with least magnetic shear and found good agreement. Peak values of both measured quantities agreed better than the average values. The separation between the X and S-lines were measured for two events. The separation was in the order of 2 ion inertial lengths. We presented a detailed analysis of a current sheet crossing hallmarked by a density asymmetry of 2 orders of magnitude ( 140) [Muzamil et al., 2014, JGR]. This event was measured by the Polar spacecraft, also at high latitudes poleward of the cusp. Data agreed well with simulation results, especially the observation of density cavities together with isolated electric fields in the normal direction at both separatrices. This has not been observed in previous observational studies. Effect of the guide field on both sides of the X-line was examined using two events with jet reversals and similar guide fields. A sunward-tailward asymmetry in the Hall magnetic field structure was observed due to the guide field in the two outflow regions. The Hall field was weakened and changed polarity in the vicinity of the X-line due to an electron velocity shear layer. Using three other crossings with high guide fields, we measured a 40-60% enhancement in the Hall magnetic field showing consistency with simulations. We then presented a case study of large episodic magnetic field depressions in the magnetosheath boundary layer region near the magnetic separatrix. We identified specific characteristics and compared them to possible generating mechanisms. The most plausible one was kinetic Alfven waves. Thus, we have provided observational evidence for the structure of the IDR in poleward of the cusp under several different asymmetric conditions and guide fields.

Validation of measured poleward TEC gradient using multi-station GPS with Artificial Neural Network based TEC model in low latitude region for developing predictive capability of ionospheric scintillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sur, D.; Paul, A.

2017-12-01

The equatorial ionosphere shows sharp diurnal and latitudinal Total Electron Content (TEC) variations over a major part of the day. Equatorial ionosphere also exhibits intense post-sunset ionospheric irregularities. Accurate prediction of TEC in these low latitudes is not possible from standard ionospheric models. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based Vertical TEC (VTEC) model has been designed using TEC data in low latitude Indian longitude sector for accurate prediction of VTEC. GPS TEC data from the stations Calcutta (22.58°N, 88.38°E geographic, magnetic dip 32°), Baharampore (24.09°N, 88.25°E geographic, magnetic dip 35°) and Siliguri (26.72°N, 88.39°E geographic; magnetic dip 40°) are used as training dataset for the duration of January 2007-September 2011. Poleward VTEC gradients from northern EIA crest to region beyond EIA crest have been calculated from measured VTEC and compared with that obtained from ANN based VTEC model. TEC data from Calcutta and Siliguri are used to compute VTEC gradients during April 2013 and August-September 2013. It has been observed that poleward VTEC gradient computed from ANN based TEC model has shown good correlation with measured values during vernal and autumnal equinoxes of high solar activity periods of 2013. Possible correlation between measured poleward TEC gradients and post-sunset scintillations (S4 ≥ 0.4) from northern crest of EIA has been observed in this paper. From the observation, a suitable threshold poleward VTEC gradient has been proposed for possible occurrence of post-sunset scintillations at northern crest of EIA along 88°E longitude. Poleward VTEC gradients obtained from ANN based VTEC model are used to forecast possible ionospheric scintillation after post-sunset period using the threshold value. It has been observed that these predicted VTEC gradients obtained from ANN based VTEC model can forecast post-sunset L-band scintillation with an accuracy of 67% to 82% in this dynamic low latitude region. The use of VTEC gradients from ANN based VTEC model removes the necessity of continuous operation of multi-station ground based TEC receivers in this low latitude region.

Distribution of planktonic biogenic carbonate organisms in the Southern Ocean south of Australia: a baseline for ocean acidification impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trull, Thomas W.; Passmore, Abraham; Davies, Diana M.; Smit, Tim; Berry, Kate; Tilbrook, Bronte

2018-01-01

The Southern Ocean provides a vital service by absorbing about one-sixth of humankind's annual emissions of CO2. This comes with a cost - an increase in ocean acidity that is expected to have negative impacts on ocean ecosystems. The reduced ability of phytoplankton and zooplankton to precipitate carbonate shells is a clearly identified risk. The impact depends on the significance of these organisms in Southern Ocean ecosystems, but there is very little information on their abundance or distribution. To quantify their presence, we used coulometric measurement of particulate inorganic carbonate (PIC) on particles filtered from surface seawater into two size fractions: 50-1000 µm to capture foraminifera (the most important biogenic carbonate-forming zooplankton) and 1-50 µm to capture coccolithophores (the most important biogenic carbonate-forming phytoplankton). Ancillary measurements of biogenic silica (BSi) and particulate organic carbon (POC) provided context, as estimates of the biomass of diatoms (the highest biomass phytoplankton in polar waters) and total microbial biomass, respectively. Results for nine transects from Australia to Antarctica in 2008-2015 showed low levels of PIC compared to Northern Hemisphere polar waters. Coccolithophores slightly exceeded the biomass of diatoms in subantarctic waters, but their abundance decreased more than 30-fold poleward, while diatom abundances increased, so that on a molar basis PIC was only 1 % of BSi in Antarctic waters. This limited importance of coccolithophores in the Southern Ocean is further emphasized in terms of their associated POC, representing less than 1 % of total POC in Antarctic waters and less than 10 % in subantarctic waters. NASA satellite ocean-colour-based PIC estimates were in reasonable agreement with the shipboard results in subantarctic waters but greatly overestimated PIC in Antarctic waters. Contrastingly, the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) shows coccolithophores as overly restricted to subtropical and northern subantarctic waters. The cause of the strong southward decrease in PIC abundance in the Southern Ocean is not yet clear. The poleward decrease in pH is small, and while calcite saturation decreases strongly southward, it remains well above saturation ( > 2). Nitrate and phosphate variations would predict a poleward increase. Temperature and competition with diatoms for limiting iron appear likely to be important. While the future trajectory of coccolithophore distributions remains uncertain, their current low abundances suggest small impacts on overall Southern Ocean pelagic ecology.

Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Smith, A.T.; Hurd, L.E.

Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperature zone univoltine insect. Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killingmore » frost. We used field and laboratory observation on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified, best-case, biological assumptions of our model, the geographical range of T. sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 61 refs., 3 figs.« less

Tidal Conversion and Mixing Poleward of the Critical Latitude (an Arctic Case Study)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rippeth, Tom P.; Vlasenko, Vasiliy; Stashchuk, Nataliya; Scannell, Brian D.; Green, J. A. Mattias; Lincoln, Ben J.; Bacon, Sheldon

2017-12-01

The tides are a major source of the kinetic energy supporting turbulent mixing in the global oceans. The prime mechanism for the transfer of tidal energy to turbulent mixing results from the interaction between topography and stratified tidal flow, leading to the generation of freely propagating internal waves at the period of the forcing tide. However, poleward of the critical latitude (where the period of the principal tidal constituent exceeds the local inertial period), the action of the Coriolis force precludes the development of freely propagating linear internal tides. Here we focus on a region of sloping topography, poleward of the critical latitude, where there is significant conversion of tidal energy and the flow is supercritical (Froude number, Fr > 1). A high-resolution nonlinear modeling study demonstrates the key role of tidally generated lee waves and supercritical flow in the transfer of energy from the barotropic tide to internal waves in these high-latitude regions. Time series of flow and water column structure from the region of interest show internal waves with characteristics consistent with those predicted by the model, and concurrent microstructure dissipation measurements show significant levels of mixing associated with these internal waves. The results suggest that tidally generated lee waves are a key mechanism for the transfer of energy from the tide to turbulence poleward of the critical latitude.

Association between substorm onsets in auroral all-sky images and geomagnetic Pi2pulsations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miura, T.; Ieda, A.; Teramoto, M.; Kawashima, T.

2017-12-01

Substorms are explosive disturbances in the magnetosphere and ionosphere of Earth. Substorm onsets are often identified usingsudden auroral brightenings (auroral breakup) or geomagnetic Pi2 pulsations. These auroral brightenings and Pi2 pulsations aresupposed to occur simultaneously within approximately 1 min of each other. However, as auroral brightenings typically includea two-stage development, this simultaneity is not straightforward. In this study, we clarify the correspondence between Pi2 pulsations and auroral brightenings, including the two-stage development.The first stage of the development is the sudden brightening of an auroral arc near the midnight (initial brightening)and the second stage is the poleward expansion of the auroral arc. We compared all-sky images (3 s resolution) in Canada andgeomagnetic observations (0.5-1 s resolution) in North and Central America, using data from the THEMIS project. In this study,we examined three substorms events that exhibit evidence of the two-stage auroral development. In the first event (4 March 2008), an auroral initial brightening occurred at 0533:57 UT and a poleward expansion was observedat 0538:12 UT (4 min after the initial brightening) in Gillam (magnetic latitude:66.0 °, longitude:333 °, MLT:22.9). In contract,the Pi2 pulsation started at 0539:30 UT, which is closer to the time of the poleward expansion, in Carson City (magnetic latitude:45.0 °, longitude:304 °). and San Juan (magnetic latitude:27.9 °, longitude:6.53 °). Thus, we consider this Pi2 pulsation ascorresponding to the poleward expansion rather than the initial brightening. This correspondence was also seen in the other twoevents, suggesting that it is not exceptional. We interpret that the Pi2 pulsation corresponds to the poleward expansion becauseboth are caused by the magnetic field dipolarization, which is a drastic change that propagates from low- to high-latitude fieldlines.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Meridional Energy Transport and the ITCZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russotto, R. D.; Ackerman, T. P.; Frierson, D. M.

2016-12-01

The polar amplification of warming and the ability of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to shift to the north or south are two very important problems in climate science. Examining these behaviors in global climate models (GCMs) running solar geoengineering experiments is helpful not only for predicting the effects of solar geoengineering, but also for understanding how these processes work under increased CO2. Both polar amplification and ITCZ shifts are closely related to the meridional transport of moist static energy (MSE) by the atmosphere. In this study we examine changes in MSE transport in 10 fully coupled GCMs in Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which the solar constant is reduced to compensate for abruptly quadrupled CO2 concentrations. In this experiment, poleward MSE transport decreases relative to preindustrial conditions in all models, in contrast to the CMIP5 abrupt4xCO2 experiment, in which poleward MSE transport increases. The increase in poleward MSE transport under increased CO2 is due to latent heat transport, as specific humidity increases faster in the tropics than at the poles; this mechanism is not present under G1 conditions, so the reduction in dry static energy transport due to a weakened equator-to-pole temperature gradient leads to weaker energy transport overall. Changes in cross-equatorial MSE transport in G1, meanwhile, are anticorrelated with shifts in the ITCZ. The northward ITCZ shift in G1 is 0.14 degrees in the multi-model mean and ranges from -0.33 to 0.89 degrees between the models. We examine the specific forcing and feedback terms responsible for changes in MSE transport in G1 by running experiments with a moist energy balance model. This work will help identify the largest sources of uncertainty regarding ITCZ shifts under solar geoengineering, and will help improve our understanding of the reasons for the residual polar amplification that occurs in the G1 experiment.

Simultaneous prenoon and postnoon observations of three field-aligned current systems from Viking and DMSP-F7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ohtani, S.; Potemra, T. A.; Newell, P. T.; Zanetti, L. J.; Iijima, T.; Watanabe, M.; Yamauchi, M.; Elphinstone, R. D.; De La Beauijardie, O.; Blomberg, L. G.

1995-01-01

The spatial structure of dayside large-scale field-aligned current (FAC) systems is examined by using Viking and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program-F7 (DMSP-F7) data. We focus on four events in which the satellites simultaneously observed postnoon and prenoon three FAC systems: the region 2, the region 1, and the mantle (referred to as midday region O) systems, from equatorward to poleward. These events provide the most solid evidence to date that the midday region O system is a separate and unique FAC system, and is not an extension of the region 1 system from other local times. The events are examined comprehensively by making use of a mulit-instrumental data set, which includes magnetic field, particle flux, electric field, auroral UV image data from the satellites, and the Sondrestrom convection data. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Region 2 currents flow mostly in the central plasma sheet (CPS) precipitation region, often overlapping with the boundary plasma sheet (BPD) at their poleward edge. (2) The region 1 system is located in the core part of the auroral oval and is confined in a relatively narrow range in latitude which includes the convection reversal. The low-latitude boundary layer, possibly including the outer part of the plasma sheet, and the external cusp are the major source regions of dayside region 1 currents. (2) Midday region O currents flow on open field lines and are collocated with the shear of antisunward convection flows with velocites decreasing poleward. On the basis of these results we support the view that both prenoon and postnoon current systems consist of the three-sheet structure when the disctortion ofthe convection pattern associated with interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub Y) is small and both morningside and eveningside convection cells are crescent-shaped. We also propose that the midday region O and a part of the region 1 systems are closely coupled to the same source.

Bipolarization and Poleward Flux Correlate during Xenopus Extract Spindle AssemblyV⃞

PubMed Central

Mitchison, T.J.; Maddox, P.; Groen, A.; Cameron, L.; Perlman, Z.; Ohi, R.; Desai, A.; Salmon, E.D.; Kapoor, T.M.

2004-01-01

We investigated the mechanism by which meiotic spindles become bipolar and the correlation between bipolarity and poleward flux, using Xenopus egg extracts. By speckle microscopy and computational alignment, we find that monopolar sperm asters do not show evidence for flux, partially contradicting previous work. We account for the discrepancy by describing spontaneous bipolarization of sperm asters that was missed previously. During spontaneous bipolarization, onset of flux correlated with onset of bipolarity, implying that antiparallel microtubule organization may be required for flux. Using a probe for TPX2 in addition to tubulin, we describe two pathways that lead to spontaneous bipolarization, new pole assembly near chromatin, and pole splitting. By inhibiting the Ran pathway with excess importin-alpha, we establish a role for chromatin-derived, antiparallel overlap bundles in generating the sliding force for flux, and we examine these bundles by electron microscopy. Our results highlight the importance of two processes, chromatin-initiated microtubule nucleation, and sliding forces generated between antiparallel microtubules, in self-organization of spindle bipolarity and poleward flux. PMID:15385629

A Regulatory Switch Alters Chromosome Motions at the Metaphase to Anaphase Transition

PubMed Central

Su, Kuan-Chung; Barry, Zachary; Schweizer, Nina; Maiato, Helder; Bathe, Mark; Cheeseman, Iain McPherson

2016-01-01

Summary To achieve chromosome segregation during mitosis, sister chromatids must undergo a dramatic change in their behavior to switch from balanced oscillations at the metaphase plate to directed poleward motion during anaphase. However, the factors that alter chromosome behavior at the metaphase-to-anaphase transition remain incompletely understood. Here, we perform time-lapse imaging to analyze anaphase chromosome dynamics in human cells. Using multiple directed biochemical, genetic, and physical perturbations, our results demonstrate that differences in the global phosphorylation states between metaphase and anaphase are the major determinant of chromosome motion dynamics. Indeed, causing a mitotic phosphorylation state to persist into anaphase produces dramatic metaphase-like oscillations. These induced oscillations depend on both kinetochore-derived and polar ejection forces that oppose poleward motion. Thus, our analysis of anaphase chromosome motion reveals that dephosphorylation of multiple mitotic substrates is required to suppress metaphase chromosome oscillatory motions and achieve directed poleward motion for successful chromosome segregation. PMID:27829144

Simulated effects of southern hemispheric wind changes on the Pacific oxygen minimum zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzlaff, Julia; Dietze, Heiner; Oschlies, Andreas

2016-01-01

A coupled ocean biogeochemistry-circulation model is used to investigate the impact of observed past and anticipated future wind changes in the Southern Hemisphere on the oxygen minimum zone in the tropical Pacific. We consider the industrial period until the end of the 21st century and distinguish effects due to a strengthening of the westerlies from effects of a southward shift of the westerlies that is accompanied by a poleward expansion of the tropical trade winds. Our model results show that a strengthening of the westerlies counteracts part of the warming-induced decline in the global marine oxygen inventory. A poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary, however, triggers a significant decrease of oxygen in the tropical oxygen minimum zone. In a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, the poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary and warming-induced increase in stratification contribute equally to the expansion of suboxic waters in the tropical Pacific.

A Case Study of Magnetotail Conditions at Substorm and Pseudosubstorm Onsets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyashita, Y.; Angelopoulos, V.; Fukui, K.; Machida, S.

2017-12-01

While a substorm involves initial brightening and growth of wave-like structure of the auroral onset arc and the subsequent auroral poleward expansion, a pseudosubstorm (pseudobreakup) involves only the first two steps of auroral development and subsides without progressing to poleward expansion. To understand what makes this difference, we studied magnetotail conditions at a pseudosubstorm onset and the subsequent substorm onset, using multipoint Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) spacecraft data. In the present event, near-Earth magnetic reconnection possibly occurred before initial brightening for both pseudosubstorm and substorm. In the near-Earth magnetotail at X -10 Re, the ion beta, ion pressure, and radial pressure gradient were smaller and magnetic field lines were less stretched at pseudosubstorm initial brightening than at substorm initial brightening. Dipolarization did not occur for the pseudosubstorm, whereas it began just before poleward expansion for the substorm. These observations suggest that conditions of the near-Earth magnetotail possibly affect whether the initial action develops into a full-fledged substorm.

Meridional displacement of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

PubMed Central

Gille, Sarah T.

2014-01-01

Observed long-term warming trends in the Southern Ocean have been interpreted as a sign of increased poleward eddy heat transport or of a poleward displacement of the entire Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) frontal system. The two-decade-long record from satellite altimetry is an important source of information for evaluating the mechanisms governing these trends. While several recent studies have used sea surface height contours to index ACC frontal displacements, here altimeter data are instead used to track the latitude of mean ACC transport. Altimetric height contours indicate a poleward trend, regardless of whether they are associated with ACC fronts. The zonally averaged transport latitude index shows no long-term trend, implying that ACC meridional shifts determined from sea surface height might be associated with large-scale changes in sea surface height more than with localized shifts in frontal positions. The transport latitude index is weakly sensitive to the Southern Annular Mode, but is uncorrelated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. PMID:24891396

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bender, Frida A-M.; Rananathan, V.; Tselioudis, G.

2012-01-01

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Role of Atmospheric Transport on the Arctic Amplification: Adjusting Role

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KUG, J.; Yim, B.; Jin, F.

2013-12-01

It is controversial whether the atmospheric transport plays a role in arctic amplification. Recently, Hwang et al. (2011) showed that the magnitude of the arctic amplification is negatively correlated with anomalous poleward atmospheric transport. That is, when the arctic amplification is strong (weak), the atmospheric transport plays a negative (positive) role in the arctic amplification. In this study, it is discussed what is a physical mechanism to determine the role of atmospheric transport and relation with the arctic amplification. Here, we suggest adjusting roles of atmospheric transport. The strength of local feedback over the Arctic determines zonal wind changes. The zonal wind changes are determined by two factors. The first one is polar cap cooling, and second is surface warming. They play opposite roles. So, there will be two different zonal wind responses in high-latitude to the greenhouse warming. Depending on the zonal wind response, the atmospheric transport can play a different role because the zonal wind changes can organize synoptic eddy feedbacks including heat flux, which largely contributes to poleward energy transport. We show here that when polar cap cooling is strong, and surface warming over Arctic is relatively weak, the Jet stream tends to be shifted poleward, so it leads to poleward atmospheric transport. On the other hand, when the surface warming is too strong, it lead to southward shift of Jet stream and equatorward atmospheric transport, which paly a negative role in the Arctic amplification.

Geomagnetically conjugate observations of ionospheric and thermospheric variations accompanied with a midnight brightness wave at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukushima, D.; Shiokawa, K.; Otsuka, Y.; Kubota, M.; Yokoyama, T.; Nishioka, M.; Komonjinda, S.; Yatini, C. Y.

2014-12-01

A midnight brightness wave (MBW) is the phenomenon that the OI (630-nm) airglow enhancement propagates poleward once at local midnight. In this study, we first conducted geomagnetically conjugate observations of 630nm airglow for an MBW at conjugate stations. An airglow enhancement which is considered to be an MBW was observed in the 630-nm airglow images at Kototabang, Indonesia (geomagnetic latitude (MLAT): 10.0S) at around local midnight from 1540 to 1730 UT (from 2240 to 2430 LT) on 7 February 2011. This MBW was propagating south-southwestward, which is geomagnetically poleward, with a velocity of 290 m/s. However, similar wave was not observed in the 630-nm airglow images at Chiang Mai, Thailand (MLAT: 8.9N), which is close to being conjugate point of Kototabang. This result indicates that the MBW does not have geomagnetic conjugacy. We simultaneously observed thermospheric neutral winds observed by a co-located Fabry-Perot interferometer at Kototabang. The observed meridional winds turned from northward (geomagnetically equatorward) to southward (geomagnetically poleward) just before the MBW was observed. The bottomside ionospheric heights observed by ionosondes rapidly decreased at Kototabang and slightly increased at Chiang Mai simultaneously with the MBW passage. In the presentation, we discuss the MBW generation by the observed poleward neutral winds at Kototabang, and the cause of the coinciding small height increase at Chiang Mai by the polarization electric field inside the observed MBW at Kototabang.

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

A Centroid Model of Species Distribution to Analyize Multi-directional Climate Change Finger Print in Avian Distribution in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q.; Sauer, J.; Dubayah, R.

2015-12-01

Species distribution shift (or referred to as "fingerprint of climate change") as a primary mechanism to adapt climate change has been of great interest to ecologists and conservation practitioners. Recent meta-analyses have concluded that a wide range of animal and plant species are already shifting their distribution. However majority of the literature has focused on analyzing recent poleward and elevationally upward shift of species distribution. However if measured only in poleward shifts, the fingerprint of climate change will be underestimated significantly. In this study, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. We used the centroid approach to examine large number of species permanent resident species in North America and evaluated the dreiction and magnitude of their shifting distribution. To examine the inferential ability of mean temperature and precipitation, we test a hypothesis based on climate velocity theory that species would be more likely to shift their distribution or would shift with greater magnitude in in regions with high climate change velocity. For species with significant shifts of distribution, we establish a precipitation model and a temperature model to explain their change of abundance at the strata level. Two models which are composed of mean and extreme climate indices respectively are also established to test the influences of changes in gradual and extreme climate trends.

A New Tool for Exploring Climate Change Induced Range Shifts of Conifer Species in China

PubMed Central

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management. PMID:25268604

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

PubMed

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

Global organization of tectonic deformation on Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilotti, Frank; Connors, Chris; Suppe, John

1993-03-01

The geographic organization of surface deformation on Venus as on Earth is a key to understanding the global tectonic system. To date we have mapped the distribution of three unambiguous tectonic land forms on Venus: (1) linear foldbelts analogous to those at plate margins of the Earth; (2) linear rift zones, analogous to continental rifts on the Earth; and (3) distributed plains deformation in the form of wrinkle ridges and extensional faults and fractures. The linear foldbelts are the dominant structural style in the Northern Hemisphere; ninety percent of the planet's foldbelts lie above the equator. In contrast, compressive deformation in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by two large, sweeping patterns of wrinkle ridges. The two hemispheres are divided by an equatorial region that is largely covered by rift zones and several large tessera blocks. A tectonic model of generally poleward convergence of the Northern Hemisphere explains the distribution of foldbelts and rift zones. In our model, a northern hemispherical plate (or system of plates) moves poleward and deforms along discrete, predominately longitudinal bands. We recognize four types of foldbelts based on their relationships to other large-scale tectonic features on Venus. There are foldbelts that lie within the low plains, foldbelts associated with coronae, novae and chasmata, foldbelts that lie at the margins of poly-deformed tessera plateaus, and the folded mountain belts around Lakshmi Planum. We see a geometric increase in the area of fold belts when normalized to percent area at a given latitude. This increase is consistent with our model of poleward convergence. Also, the orientations of most foldbelts are either approximately north-south or parallel to lines of latitude in the northern hemisphere. This observation is also consistent with the model in that the longitudinal bands are the result of the decreasing area of the sphere as the plate moves poleward and the latitudinal belts are the direct result of poleward compression. The trends of wrinkle ridges have been mapped over the planet and several large, sweeping patterns evidently reflect long-wavelength topography. Using wrinkle ridges as paleostress indicators, we have developed local and regional stress trajectory maps.

Global organization of tectonic deformation on Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilotti, Frank; Connors, Chris; Suppe, John

1993-01-01

The geographic organization of surface deformation on Venus as on Earth is a key to understanding the global tectonic system. To date we have mapped the distribution of three unambiguous tectonic land forms on Venus: (1) linear foldbelts analogous to those at plate margins of the Earth; (2) linear rift zones, analogous to continental rifts on the Earth; and (3) distributed plains deformation in the form of wrinkle ridges and extensional faults and fractures. The linear foldbelts are the dominant structural style in the Northern Hemisphere; ninety percent of the planet's foldbelts lie above the equator. In contrast, compressive deformation in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by two large, sweeping patterns of wrinkle ridges. The two hemispheres are divided by an equatorial region that is largely covered by rift zones and several large tessera blocks. A tectonic model of generally poleward convergence of the Northern Hemisphere explains the distribution of foldbelts and rift zones. In our model, a northern hemispherical plate (or system of plates) moves poleward and deforms along discrete, predominately longitudinal bands. We recognize four types of foldbelts based on their relationships to other large-scale tectonic features on Venus. There are foldbelts that lie within the low plains, foldbelts associated with coronae, novae and chasmata, foldbelts that lie at the margins of poly-deformed tessera plateaus, and the folded mountain belts around Lakshmi Planum. We see a geometric increase in the area of fold belts when normalized to percent area at a given latitude. This increase is consistent with our model of poleward convergence. Also, the orientations of most foldbelts are either approximately north-south or parallel to lines of latitude in the northern hemisphere. This observation is also consistent with the model in that the longitudinal bands are the result of the decreasing area of the sphere as the plate moves poleward and the latitudinal belts are the direct result of poleward compression. The trends of wrinkle ridges have been mapped over the planet and several large, sweeping patterns evidently reflect long-wavelength topography. Using wrinkle ridges as paleostress indicators, we have developed local and regional stress trajectory maps.

Geotail Measurements Compared with the Motions of High-Latitude Auroral Boundaries during Two Substorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, N. C.; Burke, W. J.; Erickson, G. M.; Nakamura, M.; Mukai, T.; Kokubun, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Jacobsen, B.; Egeland, A.; Samson, J. C.;

A seasonal study on the role of h'F/meridional winds in influencing the development of ESF irregularities over Indian sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekumar, Sreeba; Sripathi, S.

2017-08-01

In this paper, we present the seasonal variation of nighttime thermospheric meridional winds over Hyderabad as derived using dual ionosonde observations located at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.7°E, Dip Lat = 0.3°N), an equatorial station and Hyderabad (17.38°N, 78.45°E, Dip Lat = 12°N), a low latitude station, respectively, over the period of April-December 2013 using h'F data as discussed in (Sreekumar and Sripathi, 2016). The calculated winds has been compared with HWM14 wind model. The results show that trends of the derived winds from the ionosonde h'F data matches well with model wind near to midnight hours in all the seasons. However, some dissimilarities were observed during early night hours. Especially, the poleward winds during early night hours for different seasons were not well reproduced by the model. Later, the study is extended to understand the role of meridional winds in causing the variability of ESF occurrence vis a vis h'F. The histogram analysis of h'F vs wind values just before ESF onset reveals that the most probable combination of wind and h'F on the ESF days are centered around 350 km and 50 m/s. Additionally, we also performed Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) based on longer and shorter duration ESF events. The analysis reveals the distinct differences in the longer and shorter duration ESF events of Summer and Autumn equinox where the values of h'F as well as meridional winds where such that a steep change in reduction of poleward winds prior to ESF onset supported the longer duration ESF events in both seasons. However, this steep reduction is not so significant for the shorter duration ESF events indicating that meridional winds could play a crucial role in extending the spread F durations in longer duration events. The observations clearly demonstrate the reduction of poleward wind velocities during vernal equinox as compared to Autumn equinox, where larger poleward winds were present around ESF onset times. These observations are consistent with the equinoctial asymmetry as seen during year 2013 where more number of ESF occurrences were observed during vernal equinox as compared to Autumn equinox. Additionally on seasonal basis, analysis of the significance of meridional wind magnitudes during scintillation and non scintillation days were performed. The result suggests that non scintillation days were characterized with larger poleward wind magnitudes than scintillation days during vernal equinox and summer season. However, such a trend was not seen in the Autumn equinox season. This might indicate the possible role of poleward meridional wind in reducing the number of scintillation occurences during this season in addition to weakening of PRE height.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

PubMed

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

PubMed Central

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W. Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions. PMID:25874407

A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species.

PubMed

Solow, Andrew; Beet, Andrew; Roll, Uri; Stone, Lewi

2014-02-01

One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

The sun's magnetic sector structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.; Scherrer, P. H.; Howard, R.

1975-01-01

The synoptic appearance of solar magnetic sectors is studied using 454 sector boundaries observed at earth during 1959-1973. The sectors are clearly visible in the photospheric magnetic field. Sector boundaries can be clearly identified as north-south running demarcation lines between regions of persistent magnetic polarity imbalances. These regions extend up to about 35 deg of latitude on both sides of the equator. They generally do not extend into the polar caps. The polar cap boundary can be identified as an east-west demarcation line marking the poleward limit of the sectors. The typical flux imbalance for a magnetic sector is about 4 x 10 to the 21st power Maxwells.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

Substorms, poleward boundary activations and geosynchronous particle injections during sawtooth events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, M. G.

2006-12-01

During sawtooth events, the auroral distribution is typically comprised of an active and dynamic double oval configuration. In association with each tooth, the double oval evolves in a repeatable manner in which a wide double-oval configuration gradually thins down in association with an expansion of the polar cap and stretching of the tail field lines. This is followed by a localized substorm-like brightening of the auroral distribution in the dusk to midnight sector on the lower branch of the double oval which subsequently expands rapidly poleward and azimuthally. A new expanded double oval configuration emerges from this expansion phase activity and the cycle repeats itself for the duration of the sawtooth event. This behavior is highly consistent with the Akasofu picture of substorm onset occurring deep within the closed field-line region on the equator-most arc. Due to the large separation between the poleward boundary and the onset region during these types of substorms, the interaction between the onset region and poleward boundary intensifications, auroral streamers, inclined arcs, torches and omega bands are more easily determined. Here, we show that: (1) Sawtooth injections can be produced by the copious production of auroral streamers, without a substorm onset; (2) Auroral streamers typically evolve into torches and omega bands rather than leading to onsets; (3) Equatorward-moving "inclined arcs" can feed into the onset region. The observations might be explained by the scale-size-dependent behavior of earthward-moving depleted flux tubes in the tail. In this hypothesis, streamers can penetrate rapidly toward the earth (via interchange) and mitigate the pressure crisis in the near-earth region, while the slower-moving inclined arcs map to large-scale depleted flux tubes that do not efficiently penetrate earthward and hence do not alleviate the pressure crisis in the pre-midnight sector.

Understanding Rossby wave trains forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, Peter C.; Hendon, Harry H.

2018-04-01

Convective variations over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole force a Rossby wave train that appears to emanate poleward and eastward to the south of Australia and which causes climate variations across southern Australia and more generally throughout the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. However, during austral winter, the subtropical jet that extends from the eastern Indian Ocean into the western Pacific at Australian latitudes should effectively prohibit continuous propagation of a stationary Rossby wave from the tropics into the extratropics because the meridional gradient of mean absolute vorticity goes to zero on its poleward flank. The observed wave train indeed exhibits strong convergence of wave activity flux upon encountering this region of vanishing vorticity gradient and with some indication of reflection back into the tropics, indicating the continuous propagation of the stationary Rossby wave train from low to high latitudes is inhibited across the south of Australia. However, another Rossby wave train appears to emanate upstream of Australia on the poleward side of the subtropical jet and propagates eastward along the waveguide of the eddy-driven (sub-polar) jet into the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. This combination of evanescent wave train from the tropics and eastward propagating wave train emanating from higher latitudes upstream of Australia gives the appearance of a continuous Rossby wave train propagating from the tropical Indian Ocean into higher southern latitudes. The extratropical Rossby wave source on the poleward side of the subtropical jet stems from induced changes in transient eddy activity in the main storm track of the Southern Hemisphere. During austral spring, when the subtropical jet weakens, the Rossby wave train emanating from Indian Ocean convection is explained more traditionally by direct dispersion from divergence forcing at low latitudes.

Field-aligned Currents Induced by Electrostatic Polarization at the Ionosphere: Application to the Poleward Boundary Intensification (PBI) of Auroral Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohtani, S.; Yoshikawa, A.

2016-12-01

Although the field-aligned currents (Birkeland currents) are generally considered to be driven by magnetospheric processes, it is possible that some field-aligned currents are locally induced in the ionosphere in the presence of sharp conductance gradient. In this presentation we shall discuss the poleward boundary intensification (PBI) of auroral emission as an example effect of such electrostatic polarization. The observations show that the PBIs are very often preceded by the fast polar cap convection approaching the nightside auroral oval. We propose that the ionospheric currents driven by the associated electric field diverges/converges at the poleward boundary of the auroral oval as the background ionospheric conductance changes sharply in space, and they close with field-aligned currents. The associated upward field-aligned current is accompanied by electron precipitation, which may cause auroral emission as observed as PBIs. We test this idea by modeling the ionosphere as a slab-shaped enhancement of conductance and the polar cap flow channel as a pair of upward and downward FACs. The results show that (i) a pair of upward and downward FACs is induced at the poleward boundary when the front of the polar cap flow channel approaches the auroral oval; (ii) the upward FAC extends westward much wider in longitude than the flow channel; (iii) the peak FAC density is significantly larger than the incident FAC; and (iv) the induced upward and downward FACs are distributed almost symmetrically in longitude, indicating that the Pedersen polarization dominates the Hall polarization. These results are consistent with some general characteristics of PBIs, which are rather difficult to explain if the PBIs are the ionospheric manefestation of distant reconnection as often suggested.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

PubMed

Kriticos, Darren J; Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security

PubMed Central

Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world’s worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management. PMID:27513336

Poleward energy transport: is the standard definition physically relevant at all time scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Minyi; Czaja, Arnaud; Graversen, Rune; Tailleux, Remi

2018-03-01

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by "eddies" and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with a net transport of mass across latitude circles. The latter must cease to operate in steady state, but they may be significant when time variability of the heat budget is considered. Indeed, examination of reanalysis data on short (daily to monthly) timescales shows that mass variations on these timescales result in surprisingly large fluctuations (in excess of 10^{15} W = 1 PW) in the poleward heat transport. These fluctuations are referred to as "extensive", for they primarily alter the mass integrated energy of the region considered, but not its averaged value. It is suggested that extensive fluctuations mask more meaningful climate signals present in the heat transport variability on monthly and interannual timescales, and a new formulation is proposed to isolate the latter. This new formulation is applied successfully to reanalysis data and climate model simulations.

SuperDARN observations of an unusually contracted ionospheric convection pattern during the recent deep solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2012-04-01

We present a long term study, from 1995 - 2011, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) determined using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection. We find that the average latitude of the HMB at midnight is 61° magnetic latitude during the solar maximum of 2003, but it moves significantly poleward during solar minimum, averaging 64° latitude during 1996, and 68° during 2010. This poleward motion is observed despite the increasing number of low latitude radars built in recent years as part of the StormDARN network, and so is not an artefact of data coverage. We believe that the recent extreme solar minimum lead to an average HMB location that was further poleward than previous solar cycles. We also calculated the open-closed field line boundary (OCB) from auroral images during the years 2000-2002 and find that on average the HMB is located equatorward of the OCB by ~6°. We suggest that the HMB may be a useful proxy for the OCB when global auroral images are not available.

Poleward Energy Transport: Is the Standard Definition Physically Relevant at All Time Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, M.; Czaja, A.; Graversen, R.; Tailleux, R.

2017-12-01

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by ''eddies'' and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with a net transport of mass across latitude circles. The latter must cease to operate in steady state, but they may be significant when time variability of the heat budget is considered. Indeed, examination of reanalysis data on short (daily to monthly) timescales shows that mass variations on these timescales result in surprisingly large fluctuations (in excess of 1015W = 1PW) in the poleward heat transport. These fluctuations are referred to as ''extensive'', for they primarily alter the mass integrated energy of the region considered, but not its averaged value. It is suggested that extensive fluctuations mask more meaningful climate signals present in the heat transport variability, and a new formulation is proposed to isolate the latter. This new formulation is applied successfully to reanalysis data and climate model simulations.

Poleward upgliding Siberian atmospheric rivers over sea ice heat up Arctic upper air.

PubMed

Komatsu, Kensuke K; Alexeev, Vladimir A; Repina, Irina A; Tachibana, Yoshihiro

2018-02-13

We carried out upper air measurements with radiosondes during the summer over the Arctic Ocean from an icebreaker moving poleward from an ice-free region, through the ice edge, and into a region of thick ice. Rapid warming of the Arctic is a significant environmental issue that occurs not only at the surface but also throughout the troposphere. In addition to the widely accepted mechanisms responsible for the increase of tropospheric warming during the summer over the Arctic, we showed a new potential contributing process to the increase, based on our direct observations and supporting numerical simulations and statistical analyses using a long-term reanalysis dataset. We refer to this new process as "Siberian Atmospheric Rivers (SARs)". Poleward upglides of SARs over cold air domes overlying sea ice provide the upper atmosphere with extra heat via condensation of water vapour. This heating drives increased buoyancy and further strengthens the ascent and heating of the mid-troposphere. This process requires the combination of SARs and sea ice as a land-ocean-atmosphere system, the implication being that large-scale heat and moisture transport from the lower latitudes can remotely amplify the warming of the Arctic troposphere in the summer.

Plasma Entry from Tail into the Dipolar Magnetosphere During Substorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerendel, Gerhard

Plasma entering the dipolar magnetosphere from the tail has to overcome the obstacle presented by the conductivity enhancements caused by the poleward arc(s). While the arcs move poleward, the plasma proceeds equatorward as testified by the existence of a westward electric field. The arcs break into smaller-scale structures and loops with a tendency of eastward growth and expansion, although the basic driving force is directed earthward/equatorward. The likely reason is that the arc-related conductivity enhancements act as flow barriers and convert normal into shear stresses. The energy derived from the release of the shear stresses and dissipated in the arcs lowers the entropy content of the flux tubes and enables their earthward progression. In addition, poleward jumps of the breakup arcs are quite common. They result from refreshments of the generator plasma by the sequential arrival of flow bursts from the near-Earth neutral line. Once inside the oval, the plasma continues to move equatorward as manifested through north-south aligned auroral forms. Owing to the existence of an inner border of the oval, marked by the Region 2 currents, all flows are eventually diverted sunward.

The Poleward Boundary Intensification (PBI) of Auroral Emission: Its Dynamics and Associated Field-aligned Current System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohtani, S.; Motoba, T.; Gjerloev, J. W.

2016-12-01

The poleward boundary intensification (PBI) of aurora emission is often addressed in terms of distant reconnection. Recently, however, Ohtani and Yoshikawa [2016] proposed that the PBIs, at least at the initial stage of their formation, are actually the effect of ionospheric polarization in the presence of the enhanced convection in the polar cap and conductance gradient at the poleward boundary of the auroral oval. Whereas the ionospheric polarization itself is a transient process, it is known that the PBIs occasionally extend longitudinally suggesting that a 3D current system forms subsequently, which electrodynamically couples the magnetosphere and ionosphere. In the present study we observationally examine the associated field-aligned current (FAC) observed by the SWARM satellites and compare its characteristics with ground all-sky images. It is found that complex signatures of FACs as suggested by magnetic disturbances reflect the spatial structure of aurora (e.g., location and orientation), whereas the overall motion of PBIs is well explained in terms of the background convection suggested by the FAC distribution. We shall discuss the implications of these results for the responsible evolution process of the PBIs.

Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension.

PubMed

Ramos, Jorge E; Pecl, Gretta T; Moltschaniwskyj, Natalie A; Semmens, Jayson M; Souza, Carla A; Strugnell, Jan M

2018-06-22

Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in atmospheric ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oltmans, S. J.; London, J.

1981-01-01

Examination of the relationship between tropical stratosphere zonal wind and ozone indicate a variable response in latitude with Northern Hemisphere tropics and polar regions and Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes showing the strongest response with relatively weaker response at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere tropics. In tropical regions, the west winds and ozone maxima are in phase while at higher latitudes, a more nearly out-of-phase relationship prevails. At subtropical and middle latitudes, the QBO in ozone does not appear to change phases with altitude. These features are suggestive of an interaction between the tropical zonal winds and poleward transport of horizontal eddies in conjunction with the annual poleward transport of ozone.

Variations of soil microbial community structures beneath broadleaved forest trees in temperate and subtropical climate zones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Sihang; Zhang, Yuguang; Cong, Jing

Global warming has shifted climate zones poleward or upward. Furthermore, understanding the responses and mechanism of microbial community structure and functions relevant to natural climate zone succession is challenged by the high complexity of microbial communities. Here, we examined soil microbial community in three broadleaved forests located in the Wulu Mountain (WLM, temperate climate), Funiu Mountain (FNM, at the border of temperate and subtropical climate zones), or Shennongjia Mountain (SNJ, subtropical climate). Although plant species richness decreased with latitudes, the microbial taxonomic α-diversity increased with latitudes, concomitant with increases in soil total and available nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Phylogenetic NRImore » (Net Relatedness Index) values increased from 0.718 in temperate zone (WLM) to 1.042 in subtropical zone (SNJ), showing a shift from over dispersion to clustering likely caused by environmental filtering such as low pH and nutrients. Similarly, taxonomybased association networks of subtropical forest samples were larger and tighter, suggesting clustering. In contrast, functional α-diversity was similar among three forests, but functional gene networks of the FNM forest significantly (P < 0.050) differed from the others. A significant correlation (R = 0.616, P < 0.001) between taxonomic and functional β-diversity was observed only in the FNM forest, suggesting low functional redundancy at the border of climate zones. Using a strategy of space-fortime substitution, we predict that poleward climate range shift will lead to decreased microbial taxonomic α-diversities in broadleaved forest.« less

Variations of soil microbial community structures beneath broadleaved forest trees in temperate and subtropical climate zones

DOE PAGES

Yang, Sihang; Zhang, Yuguang; Cong, Jing; ...

2017-02-10

Global warming has shifted climate zones poleward or upward. Furthermore, understanding the responses and mechanism of microbial community structure and functions relevant to natural climate zone succession is challenged by the high complexity of microbial communities. Here, we examined soil microbial community in three broadleaved forests located in the Wulu Mountain (WLM, temperate climate), Funiu Mountain (FNM, at the border of temperate and subtropical climate zones), or Shennongjia Mountain (SNJ, subtropical climate). Although plant species richness decreased with latitudes, the microbial taxonomic α-diversity increased with latitudes, concomitant with increases in soil total and available nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Phylogenetic NRImore » (Net Relatedness Index) values increased from 0.718 in temperate zone (WLM) to 1.042 in subtropical zone (SNJ), showing a shift from over dispersion to clustering likely caused by environmental filtering such as low pH and nutrients. Similarly, taxonomybased association networks of subtropical forest samples were larger and tighter, suggesting clustering. In contrast, functional α-diversity was similar among three forests, but functional gene networks of the FNM forest significantly (P < 0.050) differed from the others. A significant correlation (R = 0.616, P < 0.001) between taxonomic and functional β-diversity was observed only in the FNM forest, suggesting low functional redundancy at the border of climate zones. Using a strategy of space-fortime substitution, we predict that poleward climate range shift will lead to decreased microbial taxonomic α-diversities in broadleaved forest.« less

Adapt, move or die - how will tropical coral reef fishes cope with ocean warming?

PubMed

Habary, Adam; Johansen, Jacob L; Nay, Tiffany J; Steffensen, John F; Rummer, Jodie L

2017-02-01

Previous studies hailed thermal tolerance and the capacity for organisms to acclimate and adapt as the primary pathways for species survival under climate change. Here we challenge this theory. Over the past decade, more than 365 tropical stenothermal fish species have been documented moving poleward, away from ocean warming hotspots where temperatures 2-3 °C above long-term annual means can compromise critical physiological processes. We examined the capacity of a model species - a thermally sensitive coral reef fish, Chromis viridis (Pomacentridae) - to use preference behaviour to regulate its body temperature. Movement could potentially circumvent the physiological stress response associated with elevated temperatures and may be a strategy relied upon before genetic adaptation can be effectuated. Individuals were maintained at one of six temperatures (23, 25, 27, 29, 31 and 33 °C) for at least 6 weeks. We compared the relative importance of acclimation temperature to changes in upper critical thermal limits, aerobic metabolic scope and thermal preference. While acclimation temperature positively affected the upper critical thermal limit, neither aerobic metabolic scope nor thermal preference exhibited such plasticity. Importantly, when given the choice to stay in a habitat reflecting their acclimation temperatures or relocate, fish acclimated to end-of-century predicted temperatures (i.e. 31 or 33 °C) preferentially sought out cooler temperatures, those equivalent to long-term summer averages in their natural habitats (~29 °C). This was also the temperature providing the greatest aerobic metabolic scope and body condition across all treatments. Consequently, acclimation can confer plasticity in some performance traits, but may be an unreliable indicator of the ultimate survival and distribution of mobile stenothermal species under global warming. Conversely, thermal preference can arise long before, and remain long after, the harmful effects of elevated ocean temperatures take hold and may be the primary driver of the escalating poleward migration of species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Polar Field Reversals and Active Region Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrie, Gordon; Ettinger, Sophie

2017-09-01

We study the relationship between polar field reversals and decayed active region magnetic flux. Photospheric active region flux is dispersed by differential rotation and turbulent diffusion, and is transported poleward by meridional flows and diffusion. We summarize the published evidence from observation and modeling of the influence of meridional flow variations and decaying active region flux's spatial distribution, such as the Joy's law tilt angle. Using NSO Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms covering cycles 21-24, we investigate in detail the relationship between the transport of decayed active region flux to high latitudes and changes in the polar field strength, including reversals in the magnetic polarity at the poles. By means of stack plots of low- and high-latitude slices of the synoptic magnetograms, the dispersal of flux from low to high latitudes is tracked, and the timing of this dispersal is compared to the polar field changes. In the most abrupt cases of polar field reversal, a few activity complexes (systems of active regions) are identified as the main cause. The poleward transport of large quantities of decayed trailing-polarity flux from these complexes is found to correlate well in time with the abrupt polar field changes. In each case, significant latitudinal displacements were found between the positive and negative flux centroids of the complexes, consistent with Joy's law bipole tilt with trailing-polarity flux located poleward of leading-polarity flux. The activity complexes of the cycle 21 and 22 maxima were larger and longer-lived than those of the cycle 23 and 24 maxima, and the poleward surges were stronger and more unipolar and the polar field changes larger and faster. The cycle 21 and 22 polar reversals were dominated by only a few long-lived complexes whereas the cycle 23 and 24 reversals were the cumulative effects of more numerous, shorter-lived regions. We conclude that sizes and lifetimes of activity complexes are key to understanding the diversity of polar reversals.

Electrodynamic parameters in the nighttime sector during auroral substorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujii, R.; Hoffman, R. A.; Anderson, P. C.; Craven, J. D.; Sugiura, M.; Frank, L. A.; Maynard, N. C.

1994-01-01

The characteristics of the large-scale electrodynamic parameters, field-aligned currents (FACs), electric fields, and electron precipitation, which are associated with auroral substorm events in the nighttime sector, have been obtained through a unique analysis which places the ionospheric measurements of these parameters into the context of a generic substorm determined from global auroral images. A generic bulge-type auroral emission region has been deduced from auroral images taken by the Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE 1) satellite during a number of isolated substorms, and the form has been divided into six sectors, based on the peculiar emission characteristics in each sector: west of bulge, surge horn, surge, middle surge, eastern bulge, and east of bulge. By comparing the location of passes of the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite to the simultaneously obtained auroral images, each pass is placed onto the generic aurora. The organization of DE 2 data in this way has systematically clarified peculiar characteristics in the electrodynamic parameters. An upward net current mainly appears in the surge, with little net current in the surge horn and the west of bulge. The downward net current is distributed over wide longitudinal regions from the eastern bulge to the east of bulge. Near the poleward boundary of the expanding auroral bulge, a pair of oppositely directed FAC sheets is observed, with the downward FAC on the poleward side. This downward FAC and most of the upward FAC in the surge and the middle surge are assoc iated with narrow, intense antisunwqard convection, corresponding to an equatorward directed spikelike electric field. This pair of currents decreases in amplitude and latitudinal width toward dusk in the surge and the west of bulge, and the region 1 and 2 FACs become embedded in the sunward convection region. The upward FAC region associated with the spikelike field on the poleward edge of the bulge coincides well with intense electron precipitation and aurora appearing in this western and poleward protion of the bulge. The convection reversal is sharp in the west of bulge and surge horn sectors, and near the high-latitude boundary of the upward region 1, with a near stagnation region often extending over a large interval of latitude. In the eastern bulge and east of bulge sectors, the region 1 and 2 FACs are located in the sunward convection region, while a spikelike electric field occasionally appears poleward of the aurora but usually not associated with a pair of FAC sheets. In the eastern bulge, magnetic field data show complicated FAC distributions which correspond to current segments and filamentary currents.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

A Pulsating X-Ray Hot Spot on Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gladstone, G. R.; Waite, J. H.; Grodent, D. C.; Crary, F. J.; Elsner, R. F.; Weisskopf, M. C.; Majeed, T.; Lewis, W. S.; Jahn, J.-M.; Bhardwaj, A.;

Martian Low-Aspect-Ratio Layered Ejecta (LARLE) craters: Distribution, characteristics, and relationship to pedestal craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, Nadine G.; Boyce, Joseph M.; Cornwall, Carin

2014-09-01

Low-Aspect-Ratio Layered Ejecta (LARLE) craters are a unique landform found on Mars. LARLE craters are characterized by a crater and normal layered ejecta pattern surrounded by an extensive but thin outer deposit which terminates in a sinuous, almost flame-like morphology. We have conducted a survey to identify all LARLE craters ⩾1-km-diameter within the ±75° latitude zone and to determine their morphologic and morphometric characteristics. The survey reveals 140 LARLE craters, with the majority (91%) located poleward of 40°S and 35°N and all occurring within thick mantles of fine-grained deposits which are likely ice-rich. LARLE craters range in diameter from the cut-off limit of 1 km up to 12.2 km, with 83% being smaller than 5 km. The radius of the outer LARLE deposit displays a linear trend with the crater radius and is greatest at higher polar latitudes. The LARLE deposit ranges in length between 2.56 and 14.81 crater radii in average extent, with maximum length extending up to 21.4 crater radii. The LARLE layer is very sinuous, with lobateness values ranging between 1.45 and 4.35. LARLE craters display a number of characteristics in common with pedestal craters and we propose that pedestal craters are eroded versions of LARLE craters. The distribution and characteristics of the LARLE craters lead us to propose that impact excavation into ice-rich fine-grained deposits produces a dusty base surge cloud (like those produced by explosion craters) that deposits dust and ice particles to create the LARLE layers. Salts emplaced by upward migration of water through the LARLE deposit produce a surficial duricrust layer which protects the deposit from immediate removal by eolian processes.

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

PubMed Central

Butt, Nathalie; Pollock, Laura J; McAlpine, Clive A

2013-01-01

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure. PMID:24455132

The Aqua-planet Experiment (APE): Response to Changed Meridional SST Profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, David L.; Blackburn, Michael; Nakajima, Kensuke; Ohfuchi, Wataru; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki O.; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Ishiwatari, Masaki; Mcgregor, John L.; Borth, Hartmut;

Patterns of climate-induced density shifts of species: poleward shifts faster in northern boreal birds than in southern birds.

PubMed

Virkkala, Raimo; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2014-10-01

Climate change has been shown to cause poleward range shifts of species. These shifts are typically demonstrated using presence-absence data, which can mask the potential changes in the abundance of species. Moreover, changes in the mean centre of weighted density of species are seldom examined, and comparisons between these two methods are even rarer. Here, we studied the change in the mean weighted latitude of density (MWLD) of 94 bird species in Finland, northern Europe, using data covering a north-south gradient of over 1000 km from the 1970s to the 2010s. The MWLD shifted northward on average 1.26 km yr(-1) , and this shift was significantly stronger in northern species compared to southern species. These shifts can be related to climate warming during the study period, because the annual temperature had increased more in northern Finland (by 1.7 °C) than in southern Finland (by 1.4 °C), although direct causal links cannot be shown. Density shifts of species distributed over the whole country did not differ from shifts in species situated on the edge of the species range in southern and northern species. This means that density shifts occur both in the core and on the edge of species distribution. The species-specific comparison of MWLD values with corresponding changes in the mean weighted latitude using presence-absence atlas data (MWL) revealed that the MWLD moved more slowly than the MWL in the atlas data in the southern species examined, but more rapidly in the northern species. Our findings highlight that population densities are also moving rapidly towards the poles and the use of presence-absence data can mask the shift of population densities. We encourage use of abundance data in studies considering the effects of climate change on biodiversity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Influence of the IMF Cone Angle on Invariant Latitudes of Polar Region Footprints of FACs in the Magnetotail: Cluster Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Z. W.; Shi, J. K.; Zhang, J. C.; Torkar, K.; Kistler, L. M.; Dunlop, M.; Carr, C.; Rème, H.; Dandouras, I.; Fazakerley, A.

2018-04-01

The influence of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) cone angle θ (the angle between the IMF direction and the Sun-Earth line) on the invariant latitudes of the footprints of the field-aligned currents (FACs) in the magnetotail has been investigated. We performed a statistical study of 542 FAC cases observed by the four Cluster spacecraft in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that there are almost no FACs when the IMF cone angle is less than 10°, and there are indications of the FACs in the plasma sheet boundary layers being weak under the radial IMF conditions. The footprints of the large FAC (>10 nA/m2) cases are within invariant latitudes <71° and mainly within IMF cone angles θ > 60°, which implies that the footprints of the large FACs mainly expand equatorward with large IMF cone angle. The equatorward boundary of the FAC footprints in the polar region decreases with increasing IMF cone angle (and has a better correlation for northward IMF), which shows that the IMF cone angle plays an important controlling role in FAC distributions in the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling system. There is almost no correlation between the poleward boundary and the IMF cone angle for both northward and southward IMF. This is because the poleward boundary movement is limited by an enhanced lobe magnetic flux. This is the first time a correlation between FAC footprints in the polar region and IMF cone angles has been determined.

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

PubMed Central

Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-01-01

Abstract Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25. PMID:28781930

Synoptic forcing of wind relaxations at Pt. Conception, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fewings, Melanie R.; Washburn, Libe; Dorman, Clive E.; Gotschalk, Christopher; Lombardo, Kelly

2016-08-01

Over the California Current upwelling system in summer, the prevailing upwelling-favorable winds episodically weaken (relax) or reverse direction for a few days. Near Pt. Conception, California, the wind usually does not reverse, but wind relaxation allows poleward oceanic coastal flow with ecological consequences. To determine the offshore extent and synoptic forcing of these wind relaxations, we formed composite averages of wind stress from the QuikSCAT satellite and atmospheric pressure from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) using 67 wind relaxations during summer 2000-2009. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are the third stage of an event sequence that repeatedly affects the west coast of North America in summer. First, 5-7 days before the wind weakens near Pt. Conception, the wind weakens or reverses off Oregon and northern California. Second, the upwelling-favorable wind intensifies along central California. Third, the wind relaxes at Pt. Conception, and the area of weakened winds extends poleward to northern California over 3-5 days. The NARR underestimates the wind stress within ˜200 km of coastal capes by a factor of 2. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are caused by offshore extension of the desert heat low. This synoptic forcing is related to event cycles that cause wind reversal as in Halliwell and Allen (1987) and Mass and Bond (1996), but includes weaker events. The wind relaxations extend ˜600 km offshore, similarly to the California-scale hydraulic expansion fan shaping the prevailing winds, and ˜1000 km alongshore, limited by an opposing pressure gradient force at Cape Mendocino.

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution.

PubMed

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J; Imber, Suzanne M; James, Matthew K; Bunce, Emma J; Yeoman, Timothy K

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.

Possible role of oceanic heat transport in early Eocene climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sloan, L. C.; Walker, J. C.; Moore, T. C. Jr

1995-01-01

Increased oceanic heat transport has often been cited as a means of maintaining warm high-latitude surface temperatures in many intervals of the geologic past, including the early Eocene. Although the excess amount of oceanic heat transport required by warm high latitude sea surface temperatures can be calculated empirically, determining how additional oceanic heat transport would take place has yet to be accomplished. That the mechanisms of enhanced poleward oceanic heat transport remain undefined in paleoclimate reconstructions is an important point that is often overlooked. Using early Eocene climate as an example, we consider various ways to produce enhanced poleward heat transport and latitudinal energy redistribution of the sign and magnitude required by interpreted early Eocene conditions. Our interpolation of early Eocene paleotemperature data indicate that an approximately 30% increase in poleward heat transport would be required to maintain Eocene high-latitude temperatures. This increased heat transport appears difficult to accomplish by any means of ocean circulation if we use present ocean circulation characteristics to evaluate early Eocene rates. Either oceanic processes were very different from those of the present to produce the early Eocene climate conditions or oceanic heat transport was not the primary cause of that climate. We believe that atmospheric processes, with contributions from other factors, such as clouds, were the most likely primary cause of early Eocene climate.

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL BABCOCK-LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miesch, Mark S.; Dikpati, Mausumi, E-mail: miesch@ucar.edu

We present a three-dimensional (3D) kinematic solar dynamo model in which poloidal field is generated by the emergence and dispersal of tilted sunspot pairs (more generally bipolar magnetic regions, or BMRs). The axisymmetric component of this model functions similarly to previous 2.5 dimensional (2.5D, axisymmetric) Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo models that employ a double-ring prescription for poloidal field generation but we generalize this prescription into a 3D flux emergence algorithm that places BMRs on the surface in response to the dynamo-generated toroidal field. In this way, the model can be regarded as a unification of BL dynamo models (2.5D in radius/latitude)more » and surface flux transport models (2.5D in latitude/longitude) into a more self-consistent framework that builds on the successes of each while capturing the full 3D structure of the evolving magnetic field. The model reproduces some basic features of the solar cycle including an 11 yr periodicity, equatorward migration of toroidal flux in the deep convection zone, and poleward propagation of poloidal flux at the surface. The poleward-propagating surface flux originates as trailing flux in BMRs, migrates poleward in multiple non-axisymmetric streams (made axisymmetric by differential rotation and turbulent diffusion), and eventually reverses the polar field, thus sustaining the dynamo. In this Letter we briefly describe the model, initial results, and future plans.« less

Kinesin-5–dependent Poleward Flux and Spindle Length Control in Drosophila Embryo Mitosis

PubMed Central

Brust-Mascher, Ingrid; Sommi, Patrizia; Cheerambathur, Dhanya K.

2009-01-01

We used antibody microinjection and genetic manipulations to dissect the various roles of the homotetrameric kinesin-5, KLP61F, in astral, centrosome-controlled Drosophila embryo spindles and to test the hypothesis that it slides apart interpolar (ip) microtubules (MT), thereby controlling poleward flux and spindle length. In wild-type and Ncd null mutant embryos, anti-KLP61F dissociated the motor from spindles, producing a spatial gradient in the KLP61F content of different spindles, which was visible in KLP61F-GFP transgenic embryos. The resulting mitotic defects, supported by gene dosage experiments and time-lapse microscopy of living klp61f mutants, reveal that, after NEB, KLP61F drives persistent MT bundling and the outward sliding of antiparallel MTs, thereby contributing to several processes that all appear insensitive to cortical disruption. KLP61F activity contributes to the poleward flux of both ipMTs and kinetochore MTs and to the length of the metaphase spindle. KLP61F activity maintains the prometaphase spindle by antagonizing Ncd and another unknown force-generator and drives anaphase B, although the rate of spindle elongation is relatively insensitive to the motor's concentration. Finally, KLP61F activity contributes to normal chromosome congression, kinetochore spacing, and anaphase A rates. Thus, a KLP61F-driven sliding filament mechanism contributes to multiple aspects of mitosis in this system. PMID:19158379

Cusp and LLBL as Sources of the Isolated Dayside Auroral Feature During Northward IMF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, S.; Gallagher, D. L.; Spann, J. F., Jr.; Mende, S.; Greenwald, R.; Newell, P. T.

2004-01-01

An intense dayside proton aurora was observed by IMAGE FUV for an extensive period of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on 17 and 18 September, 2000. This aurora partially coincided with the auroral oval and intruded farther poleward into the polar cap, and it showed longitudinal motions in response to IMF $B-y$ variation. Intense magnetosheath-like electron and ion precipitations have been simultaneously detected by DMSP above the poleward portion of the high-latitude dayside aurora. They resemble the typical plasmas observed in the low-altitude cusp. However, less intense electrons and more intense energetic ions were detected over the equatorward part of the aurora. These plasmas are closer to the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) plasmas. Under strongly northward IMF, global ionospheric convection derived from SuperDARN radar measurements showed a 4-cell pattern with sunward convection in the middle of the dayside polar cap and the dayside aurora corresponded to two different convection cells. This result further supports two source regions for the aurora. The cusp proton aurora is on open magnetic field lines convecting sunward whereas the LLBL proton aurora is on closed field lines convecting antisunward. These IMAGE, DMSP and SuperDARN observations reveal the structure and dynamics of the aurora and provide strong evidence for magnetic merging occurring at the high-latitude magnetopause poleward from the cusp. This merging process was very likely quasi-stationary.

Sensitivity of southern hemisphere westerly wind to boundary conditions for the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, S. Y.; Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.

2017-12-01

To examine the change in SH westerly wind in the LGM, we performed LGM simulation with sensitivity experiments by specifying the LGM sea ice in the Southern Ocean (SO), ice sheet over Antarctica, and tropical pacific sea surface temperature to CAM5 atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The SH westerly response to LGM boundary conditions in the CAM5 was compared with those from CMIP5 LGM simulations. In the CAM5 LGM simulation, the SH westerly wind substantially increases between 40°S and 65°S, while the zonal-mean zonal wind decreases at latitudes higher than 65°S. The position of the SH maximum westerly wind moves poleward by about 8° in the LGM simulation. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the increase in SH westerly winds is mainly due to the increase in sea ice in the SO that accounts for 60% of total wind change. In the CMIP5-PMIP3 LGM experiments, most of the models show the slight increase and poleward shift of the SH westerly wind as in the CAM5 experiment. The increased and poleward shifted westerly wind in the LGM obtained in the current model result is consistent with previous model results and some lines of proxy evidence, though opposite model responses and proxy evidence exist for the SH westerly wind change.

Stability of Alfvén eigenmodes in the vicinity of auroral arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiraki, Yasutaka

2013-08-01

The purpose of this study is to give a theoretical suggestion to the essential question why east-west elongated auroral arc can keep its anisotropic structure for a long time. It could be related to the stability of east-westward traveling modes in the vicinity of arc, which may develop into wavy or spiral structures, whereas north-southward modes are related to splitting of arcs. Taking into account the arc-inducing field-aligned current and magnetic shears, we examine changes in the stability of Alfvén eigenmodes that are coupled to perpendicular modes in the presence of convection electric field. It is demonstrated that the poleward current shear suppresses growth of the westward mode in case of the westward convection electric field. Only the poleward mode is still unstable because of the properties of feedback shear waves. It is suggested that this tends to promote (poleward) arc splitting as often observed during quiet times. We further draw a diagram of the westward mode growth rate as a function of convection electric field and current shear, evaluating critical fields for instabilities of lower Alfvén harmonics. It is discovered that a switching phenomenon of fast-growing mode from fundamental to the first harmonic occurs for a high electric field regime. Our stability criterion is applied to some observed situations of auroral arc current system during pre-breakup active times.

Poleward transport of Saharan dust initiated by a Saharan cyclone.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karam Francis, Diana Bou; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Cuesta, Juan

2016-04-01

To enhance the understanding of the role of Saharan mineral dust in the Arctic climate system, this study focuses on dust emission and poleward transport associated with an intense Saharan cyclone that occurred over North Africa in early April 2011. Satellites observations at high spatio-temporal resolution are used in this study in order to characterize qualitatively (using MSG-SEVIRI and CALIPSO/CloudSat) and quantitatively (using MODIS and OMI) the dust activity over North Africa associated with the Saharan cyclone as well as the transport of dust toward the northern pole. Beside the observations, a simulation at high resolution is performed using the MesoNh model in order to estimation the dust load transported northward and to evaluate the dust deposition north to 60°N and its impact on the Albedo. In this study, we identify in new and important mechanism for the transport of dust over long distances toward the northern pole: the poleward migration of Saharan cyclones, in which the dust is transported toward the Arctic following a newly identified path; across the Northern Atlantic Ocean around the Icelandic Low. This path is to be added to the two preferable paths mentioned in previous studies i.e. through transport across Northern Europe and across the Atlantic Ocean around the Bermuda High. Key words: Arctic, North Africa, dust storm, dust deposition, surface albedo.

Global analysis of thermal tolerance and latitude in ectotherms

PubMed Central

Sunday, Jennifer M.; Bates, Amanda E.; Dulvy, Nicholas K.

2011-01-01

A tenet of macroecology is that physiological processes of organisms are linked to large-scale geographical patterns in environmental conditions. Species at higher latitudes experience greater seasonal temperature variation and are consequently predicted to withstand greater temperature extremes. We tested for relationships between breadths of thermal tolerance in ectothermic animals and the latitude of specimen location using all available data, while accounting for habitat, hemisphere, methodological differences and taxonomic affinity. We found that thermal tolerance breadths generally increase with latitude, and do so at a greater rate in the Northern Hemisphere. In terrestrial ectotherms, upper thermal limits vary little while lower thermal limits decrease with latitude. By contrast, marine species display a coherent poleward decrease in both upper and lower thermal limits. Our findings provide comprehensive global support for hypotheses generated from studies at smaller taxonomic subsets and geographical scales. Our results further indicate differences between terrestrial and marine ectotherms in how thermal physiology varies with latitude that may relate to the degree of temperature variability experienced on land and in the ocean. PMID:21106582

Genetic diversity in butterflies: Interactive effects of habitat fragmentation and climate-driven range expansion.

PubMed

Hill, Jane K; Hughes, Clare L; Dytham, Calvin; Searle, Jeremy B

2006-03-22

Some species are expanding their ranges polewards during current climate warming. However, anthropogenic fragmentation of suitable habitat is affecting expansion rates and here we investigate interactions between range expansion, habitat fragmentation and genetic diversity. We examined three closely related Satyrinae butterflies, which differ in their habitat associations, from six sites along a transect in England from distribution core to expanding range margin. There was a significant decline in allozyme variation towards an expanding range margin in Pararge aegeria, which has the most restricted habitat availability, but not in Pyronia tithonus whose habitat is more widely available, or in a non-expanding 'control species' (Maniola jurtina). Moreover, data from another transect in Scotland indicated that declines in genetic diversity in P. aegeria were evident only on the transect in England, which had greater habitat fragmentation. Our results indicate that fragmentation of breeding habitats leads to more severe founder events during colonization, resulting in reduced diversity in marginal populations in more specialist species. The continued widespread loss of suitable habitats in the future may increase the likelihood of loss of genetic diversity in expanding species, which may affect whether or not species can adapt to future environmental change.

The K1 internal tide simulated by a 1/10° OGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhuhua; von Storch, Jin-Song; Müller, Malte

2017-05-01

This paper quantifies the K1 internal tide simulated by the 1/10° STORMTIDE model, which simultaneously resolves the eddying general circulation and tides. An evident feature of the K1 internal tide is the critical latitude φc at 30°, which in the STORMTIDE model is characterized by variations from a high energy level equatorward of 30° to a low energy level poleward of 30°. This critical latitude separates the internal tide dynamics into bottom-trapped (at latitudes |φ| > |φc|) and freely propagating (at |φ| < |φc|) motions, respectively. Both types of motions are examined. The bottom-trapping process reveals a gradual vertical decrease of wave energy away from the bottom. The vertical scale, over which the wave energy decrease occurs, is smaller in shallow than in deep water regions. For the freely propagating K1 internal tides, the STORMTIDE model is able to simulate the first three low modes, with the wavelengths ranging from 200-400 km, 100-200 km, to 60-120 km. These wavelength distributions reveal not only a zonal asymmetry but also a poleward increase up to φc, in particular in the Pacific. Such distributions indicate the impact of stratification N and the Coriolis frequency f on the wavelengths. The large wavelength gradient near φc is caused by the wavelength increase from finite values at subcritical latitudes to infinity at φc. Compared to the M2 internal tide, the lower K1 tidal frequency leads to a stronger role of f, hence a weaker effect of N, for the K1 internal tide.

The Effect of the Divergent Circulation on Some Aspects of the 1978/79 Southern Hemisphere Monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng; van Loon, Harry

1989-11-01

Two aspects of the 1978/79 Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoon are examined: (i) A double-low (double-high) structure in the lower (upper) levels of the troposphere, which appears over the region adjacent to Australia; and (ii) the poleward shift in the Australian jet after the monsoon onset. Emphasis is given to the effect of the divergent circulation on these two aspects of the SH monsoon. The data generated by the FGGE IIIb analyses at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are used in this study.The three-dimensional structure of the SH monsoon circulation after the monsoon onset matches well with Gill's solution based upon a heat source symmetric with respect to the equator. His solution contains the coupling of an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and a westward-propagating mixed gravity-Rossby wave over the heat source region. Water vapor and heat budget analyses for the SH monsoon were performed to show how this heat source is maintained by the monsoon circulation. The contrast between the theories of Gill and Silva Dias et al. is discussed in order to explain the presence of the SH monsoon over the region adjacent to Australia. The poleward shift of the Australian subtropical jet stream following the SH monsoon onset is illustrated by an analysis of the energetics of the divergent and rotational flows; namely, the interaction between these two flow components and the possible adjustment of the ageostrophic circulation caused by the thermal field change after the SH monsoon onset.

Nd isotopic structure of the Pacific Ocean 70-30 Ma and numerical evidence for vigorous ocean circulation and ocean heat transport in a greenhouse world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Deborah J.; Korty, Robert; Huber, Matthew; Schubert, Jessica A.; Haines, Brian

2014-05-01

The oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a crucial component of the climate system, impacting heat and nutrient transport, and global carbon cycling. Past greenhouse climate intervals present a paradox because their weak equator-to-pole temperature gradients imply a weaker MOC, yet increased poleward oceanic heat transport appears to be required to maintain these weak gradients. To investigate the mode of MOC that operated during the early Cenozoic, we compare new Nd isotope data with Nd tracer-enabled numerical ocean circulation and coupled climate model simulations. Assimilation of new Nd isotope data from South Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program Sites 323, 463, 596, 865, and 869 with previously published data confirm the hypothesized MOC characterized by vigorous sinking in the South and North Pacific 70 to 30 Ma. Compilation of all Pacific Nd isotope data indicates vigorous, distinct, and separate overturning circulations in each basin until 40 Ma. Simulations consistently reproduce South Pacific and North Pacific deep convection over a broad range of conditions, but cases using strong deep ocean vertical mixing produced the best data-model match. Strong mixing, potentially resulting from enhanced abyssal tidal dissipation, greater interaction of wind-driven internal wave activity with submarine plateaus, or higher than modern values of the geothermal heat flux enable models to achieve enhanced MOC circulation rates with resulting Nd isotope distributions consistent with the proxy data. The consequent poleward heat transport may resolve the paradox of warmer worlds with reduced temperature gradients.

Air-Sea Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csanady, G. T.

2001-03-01

In recent years air-sea interaction has emerged as a subject in its own right, encompassing small-scale and large-scale processes in both air and sea. Air-Sea Interaction: Laws and Mechanisms is a comprehensive account of how the atmosphere and the ocean interact to control the global climate, what physical laws govern this interaction, and its prominent mechanisms. The topics covered range from evaporation in the oceans, to hurricanes, and on to poleward heat transport by the oceans. By developing the subject from basic physical (thermodynamic) principles, the book is accessible to graduate students and research scientists in meteorology, oceanography, and environmental engineering. It will also be of interest to the broader physics community involved in the treatment of transfer laws, and thermodynamics of the atmosphere and ocean.

Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Day, Richard H; Larriviere, Jack C; From, Andrew S

2014-01-01

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Larriviere, Jack C.; From, Andrew S.

2014-01-01

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

Electric potential structures of auroral acceleration region border from multi-spacecraft Cluster data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeghi, S.; Emami, M. R.

2018-04-01

This paper studies an auroral event using data from three spacecraft of the Cluster mission, one inside and two at the poleward edge of the bottom of the Auroral Acceleration Region (AAR). The study reveals the three-dimensional profile of the region's poleward boundary, showing spatial segmentation of the electric potential structures and their decay in time. It also depicts localized magnetic field variations and field-aligned currents that appear to have remained stable for at least 80 s. Such observations became possible due to the fortuitous motion of the three spacecraft nearly parallel to each other and tangential to the AAR edge, so that the differences and variations can be seen when the spacecraft enter and exit the segmentations, hence revealing their position with respect to the AAR.

Mechanisms and Attribution of Changes in Austral Summer Precipitation Related to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zilli, Marcia Terezinha

Austral summer (DJF) precipitation over tropical South America (SA) is characterized by the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The increase in atmospheric temperature and water vapor content over the SA during the last decades of the 20 th century could affect the duration and amplitude of the SAMS and the intensity of the SACZ. This research examines the spatial variability of precipitation trends over SE Brazil, focusing on the SACZ. More specifically, this study investigates trends in precipitation over Southeastern Brazil (SE Brazil) and examines changes in the position and intensity of the SACZ. SE Brazil is the most densely populated region in the country with a large portion of this population living in urban centers. The SACZ is important for agriculture and water supply for millions of people. One of the main goals of this research is to identify mechanisms associated with the observed changes in the characteristics of the SACZ during the last three decades of the 20th century, and examine the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing to precipitation trends. The first chapter investigates the pattern of spatial variability of precipitation trends over the coastal region of SE Brazil. This study shows that over the southern portion of the study area, precipitation is increasing due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Over the northern portion of the area, while the intensity of extreme events is increasing, the number of precipitating days is decreasing. This spatial pattern of precipitation trends suggests a poleward shift of the SACZ, which is investigated in the second chapter. Chapter 2 focuses on the underlying mechanisms associated with changes in precipitation intensity related to the position of the SACZ. Decadal variations in the mean state of the atmosphere suggest that the observed changes in precipitation over SE Brazil are associated with a weakening of the poleward winds along the eastern Brazilian coast that reduces the dynamic support necessary for convection along the equatorward margin of the SACZ. Additionally, this analysis also identifies a decrease in low-to-mid troposphere (700hPa) moisture over the tropical Atlantic in the recent decade that further reduces the moisture transported into the convective margin of the SACZ. Both mechanisms contribute to reducing precipitation over eastern tropical Brazil and characterize the poleward shift of the SACZ. The final chapter focuses on evaluating the contribution of natural variability and anthropogenic-related forcings to the poleward shift of the SACZ and drying conditions over eastern Brazil at the end of 20th century. Simulations from different scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMPI5) models capable of reproducing the SACZ climatology suggest significant contribution of anthropogenic forcing on the SACZ-related precipitation trends. Despite the large discrepancies in the simulated precipitation trends, similarities among the ensemble members provide compelling evidence that the poleward shift of the SACZ in the last three decades of the 20 th century is largely enhanced by anthropogenic forcing. Collectively, the three chapters of this dissertation characterize the recent changes in precipitation related to a poleward shift of the SACZ and give novel insights into the influence of anthropogenic-related forcing on these changes. These findings advance the scientific understanding of the consequences of recent climate variability and change over eastern tropical South America, particularly over the SACZ.

Nearshore currents on the southern Namaqua shelf of the Benguela upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fawcett, A. L.; Pitcher, G. C.; Shillington, F. A.

2008-05-01

Nearshore currents of the southern Namaqua shelf were investigated using data from a mooring situated three and a half kilometres offshore of Lambert's Bay, downstream of the Cape Columbine upwelling cell, on the west coast of South Africa. This area is susceptible to harmful algal blooms (HABs) and wind-forced variations in currents and water column structure are critical in determining the development, transport and dissipation of blooms. Time series of local wind data, and current and temperature profile data are described for three periods, considered to be representative of the latter part of the upwelling season (27 January-22 February), winter conditions (5-29 May) and the early part of the upwelling season (10 November-12 December) in 2005. Differences observed in mean wind strength and direction between data sets are indicative of seasonal changes in synoptic meteorological conditions. These quasi-seasonal variations in wind forcing affect nearshore current flow, leading to mean northward flow in surface waters early in the upwelling season when equatorward, upwelling-favourable winds are persistent. Mean near-surface currents are southward during the latter part of the upwelling season, consistent with more prolonged periods of relaxation from equatorward winds, and under winter conditions when winds were predominantly poleward. Within these seasonal variations in mean near-surface current direction, two scales of current variability were evident within all data sets: strong inertial oscillations were driven by diurnal winds and introduced vertical shear into the water column enhancing mixing across the thermocline, while sub-inertial current variability was driven by north-south wind reversals at periods of 2-5 days. Sub-inertial currents were found to lag wind reversals by approximately 12 h, with a tendency for near-surface currents to flow poleward in the absence of wind forcing. Consistent with similar sites along the Californian and Iberian coasts, the headland at Cape Columbine is considered to influence currents and circulation patterns during periods of relaxation from upwelling-favourable winds, favouring the development of a nearshore poleward current, leading to poleward advection of warm water, the development of stratification, and the creation of potentially favourable conditions for HAB development.

Can increased poleward oceanic heat flux explain the warm Cretaceous climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

1996-10-01

The poleward transport of heat in the mid-Cretaceous (100 Ma) is examined using an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The oceanic component consists of two zonally averaged basins representing the proto-Pacific and proto-Indian oceans and models the dynamics of the meridional thermohaline circulation. The atmospheric component is a simple energy and moisture balance model which includes the diffusive meridional transport of sensible heat and moisture. The ocean model is spun up with a variety of plausible Cretaceous surface temperature and salinity profiles, and a consistent atmosphere is objectively derived based on the resultant sea surface temperature and the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The coupled model does not exhibit climate drift. Multiple equilibria of the coupled model are found that break the initial symmetry of the ocean circulation; several of these equilibria have one-cell (northern or southern sinking) thermohaline circulation patterns. Two main classes of circulation are found: circulations where the densest water is relatively cool and is formed at the polar latitudes and circulations where the densest water is warm, but quite saline, and the strongest sinking occurs at the tropics. In all cases, significant amounts of warm, saline bottom water are formed in the proto-Indian basin which modify the deepwater characteristics in the larger (proto-Pacific) basin. Temperatures in the deep ocean are warm, 10°-17°C, in agreement with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope data. The poleward transport of heat in the modeled Cretaceous oceans is larger than in some comparable models of the present day thermohaline circulation and significantly larger than estimates of similar processes in the present-day ocean. It is consistently larger in the polar sinking cases when compared with that seen in the tropical sinking cases, but this represents an increase of only 10%. The largest increase over present-day model transports is in the atmospheric latent heat transport, where an increased hydrological cycle (especially in the tropical sinking cases) contributes up to an extra 1 PW of poleward heat transport. Better constraints on the oceanic deepwater circulation during this period are necessary before the meridional circulation can be unambiguously described.

Which way will the circulation shift in a changing climate? Possible nonlinearity of extratropical cloud feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandon, Neil F.; Cane, Mark A.

2017-06-01

In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than 25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than 25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant equatorward deviations. We also discuss the implications for understanding the circulation response to small external forcings from other sources, such as the solar cycle.

Influence of Continental Geometry on the Onset and Spatial Distribution of Monsoonal Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, K. L.; Bordoni, S.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have shown that the rapid onset of the monsoon is due to a switch between a dynamical regime where the tropical circulation strength is controlled by eddy momentum fluxes, to a monsoon regime where the strength is more directly controlled by energetic constraints, which causes the monsoonal cross-equatorial cell to grow rapidly in strength and extent. While it is now widely accepted that land-sea contrast is not necessary to generate monsoons, the spatial distribution of land can still affect important features of monsoons. This study focuses on the influence of continental geometry on the monsoonal precipitation. We use an idealized aquaplanet model with a slab ocean, where land and ocean differ only by the mixed-layer depth of the slab ocean, which is two orders of magnitude smaller over land than over ocean. The model is run with different zonally symmetric configurations of Northern Hemispheric land that extends poleward from southern boundaries at various latitudes. Simulations with a continent extending to tropical latitudes are able to reproduce the monsoonal precipitation distribution and rapid onset well. For continents with more poleward southern boundaries and weaker hemispheric asymmetry, the main precipitation zone remains over the ocean, moving gradually into the summer hemisphere. A local maximum in precipitation forms over the continent even when the continent does not extend into the deeper tropics, but this is primarily associated with local recycling from the saturated surface rather than moisture flux convergence by a deep and broad monsoonal circulation. Further analysis shows that a decrease in hemispheric asymmetry prevents the establishment of a reversed meridional gradient in lower-level moist static energy and, with it, a poleward displaced convergence zone. This suggests that in order to have the rapid onset of monsoonal precipitation, tropical regions of low thermal inertia may be necessary to facilitate the transition of the tropical circulation to a dynamical regime that restricts the degree to which eddy momentum fluxes influence the circulation strength and allows the cell the grow rapidly in strength and poleward extent. These results provide some useful insights for developing theories to better understand the mechanisms of rapid onset of monsoon systems worldwide.

Poleward expansion of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) under climate change: implications for the spread of lyme disease.

PubMed

Roy-Dufresne, Emilie; Logan, Travis; Simon, Julie A; Chmura, Gail L; Millien, Virginie

2013-01-01

The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050) distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.

Salp distribution and grazing in a saline intrusion off NW Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskin, Iñaki; Elices, Ma. José; Anadón, Ricardo

2003-07-01

Salp distribution and grazing were studied along three transects (19 stations) and a Lagrangian phase (7 stations) off Galician coast (NW Spain) in November 1999 during GIGOVI 99 cruise. A poleward saline intrusion was detected at the shelf-break, reaching salinity values above 35.90 u.p.s. at 100-m depth. The salp community was dominated by Salpa fusiformis, although Cyclosalpa bakeri, Thalia democratica and Iasis zonaria were also found in the study area. Total salp abundance ranged from 4 to 4500 ind m -2, representing biomass values between 0.2 and 2750 mg C m -2. Maximum densities were located in the frontal area separating the saline body from coastal waters. S. fusiformis pigment ingestion was estimated using the gut fluorescence method. Gut contents were linearly related to salp body size. Total pigment ingestion ranged from 0.001 to 15 mg Chl- a m -2 d -1, with maximum values at the coastal edge of the saline body. Estimated ingestion translates into an average daily grazing impact of 7% of chlorophyll standing stock, ranging from <1% to 77%.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-10-01

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2 doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2 doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high latitudes warm, while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar midtroposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.

Thoughts on why in CESM a more poleward TOA energy imbalance favors more ocean-centric energy transport and weaker ITCZ shift responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2017-12-01

The role of different location of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar forcing to the annual-mean, zonal-mean ITCZ location is examined in a dynamic ocean coupled Community Earth System Model. We observe a damped ITCZ shift response that is now a familiar response of coupled GCMs, but a new finding is that the damping efficiency is increases monotonically as the latitudinal location of forcing is moved poleward. More Poleward forcing cases exhibit weaker shifts of the annual-mean ITCZ position consistent with a more ocean-centric cross-equatorial energy partitioning response to the forcing, which is in turn linked to changes in ocean circulation, not thermodynamic structure. The ocean's dynamic response is partly due to Ekman-driven shallow overturning circulation responses, as expected from a recent theory, but also contains a significant Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) component--which is in some sense surprising given that it is activated even in near-tropical forcing experiments. Further analysis of the interhemispheric energy budget reveals the surface heating feedback response provides a useful framework for interpreting the cross-equatorial energy transport partitioning between atmosphere and ocean. Overall, the results of this study may help explain the mixed results of the degree of ITCZ shift response to interhemispheric asymmetric forcing documented in coupled GCMs in recent years. Furthermore, the sensitive AMOC response motivates expanding current coupled theoretical frameworks on meridional energy transport partitioning to include effects beyond Ekman transport.

Seasonal Ventilation of the Stratosphere: Robust Diagnostics from One-Way Flux Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orbe, Clara; Holzer, Mark; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Li, Feng; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.

2014-01-01

We present an analysis of the seasonally varying ventilation of the stratosphere using one-way flux distributions. Robust transport diagnostics are computed using GEOSCCM subject to fixed present-day climate forcings. From the one-way flux, we determine the mass of the stratosphere that is in transit since entry through the tropical tropopause to its exit back into the troposphere, partitioned according to stratospheric residence time and exit location. The seasonalities of all diagnostics are quantified with respect to the month of year (a) when air enters the stratosphere, (b) when the mass of the stratosphere is partitioned, and (c) when air exits back into the troposphere. We find that the return flux, within 3 months since entry, depends strongly on when entry occurred: (34 +/- 10)% more of the air entering the stratosphere in July leaves poleward of 45 deg N compared to air that enters in January. The month of year when the air mass is partitioned is also found to be important: The stratosphere contains about six times more air of tropical origin during late summer and early fall that will leave poleward of 45 deg within 6 months since entering the stratosphere compared to during late winter to late spring. When the entire mass of the air that entered the stratosphere at the tropics regardless of its residence time is considered, we find that (51 +/- 1)% and (39 +/- 2)% will leave poleward of 10 deg in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), respectively.

ON POLAR MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSAL AND SURFACE FLUX TRANSPORT DURING SOLAR CYCLE 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Xudong; Todd Hoeksema, J.; Liu, Yang

As each solar cycle progresses, remnant magnetic flux from active regions (ARs) migrates poleward to cancel the old-cycle polar field. We describe this polarity reversal process during Cycle 24 using four years (2010.33-2014.33) of line-of-sight magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. The total flux associated with ARs reached maximum in the north in 2011, more than two years earlier than the south; the maximum is significantly weaker than Cycle 23. The process of polar field reversal is relatively slow, north-south asymmetric, and episodic. We estimate that the global axial dipole changed sign in 2013 October; the northernmore » and southern polar fields (mean above 60° latitude) reversed in 2012 November and 2014 March, respectively, about 16 months apart. Notably, the poleward surges of flux in each hemisphere alternated in polarity, giving rise to multiple reversals in the north. We show that the surges of the trailing sunspot polarity tend to correspond to normal mean AR tilt, higher total AR flux, or slower mid-latitude near-surface meridional flow, while exceptions occur during low magnetic activity. In particular, the AR flux and the mid-latitude poleward flow speed exhibit a clear anti-correlation. We discuss how these features can be explained in a surface flux transport process that includes a field-dependent converging flow toward the ARs, a characteristic that may contribute to solar cycle variability.« less

DETECTION OF EQUATORWARD MERIDIONAL FLOW AND EVIDENCE OF DOUBLE-CELL MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION INSIDE THE SUN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao Junwei; Bogart, R. S.; Kosovichev, A. G.

2013-09-10

Meridional flow in the solar interior plays an important role in redistributing angular momentum and transporting magnetic flux inside the Sun. Although it has long been recognized that the meridional flow is predominantly poleward at the Sun's surface and in its shallow interior, the location of the equatorward return flow and the meridional flow profile in the deeper interior remain unclear. Using the first 2 yr of continuous helioseismology observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic Magnetic Imager, we analyze travel times of acoustic waves that propagate through different depths of the solar interior carrying information about the solar interior dynamics.more » After removing a systematic center-to-limb effect in the helioseismic measurements and performing inversions for flow speed, we find that the poleward meridional flow of a speed of 15 m s{sup -1} extends in depth from the photosphere to about 0.91 R{sub Sun }. An equatorward flow of a speed of 10 m s{sup -1} is found between 0.82 and 0.91 R{sub Sun} in the middle of the convection zone. Our analysis also shows evidence of that the meridional flow turns poleward again below 0.82 R{sub Sun }, indicating an existence of a second meridional circulation cell below the shallower one. This double-cell meridional circulation profile with an equatorward flow shallower than previously thought suggests a rethinking of how magnetic field is generated and redistributed inside the Sun.« less

Cusp and LLBL as Sources of the Isolated Dayside Auroral Feature During Northward IMF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, S.-W.; Gallagher, D. L.; Spann, J. F.; Mende, S. B.; Greenwald, R. A.; Newell, P. T.

2004-01-01

An intense dayside proton aurora was observed by Imager for Magnetopause-to- Aurora Global Exploration Far Ultra-Violet imager (IMAGE FUV) for an extensive period of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on 17 and 18 September 2000. This aurora partially coincided with the auroral oval and intruded farther poleward into the polar cap, and it showed longitudinal motions in response to IMF By variation. Intense magnetosheath-like electron and ion precipitations have been simultaneously detected by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) above the poleward portion of the high-latitude dayside aurora. They resemble the typical plasmas observed in the low-altitude cusp. However, less intense electrons and more energetic ions were detected over the equatonvard part of the aurora. These plasmas are closer to the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) plasmas. Under strongly northward IMF, global ionospheric convection derived from Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radar measurements showed a four-cell pattern with sunward convection in the middle of the dayside polar cap and the dayside aurora corresponded to two different convection cells. This result further supports two source regions for the aurora. The cusp proton aurora is on open magnetic field lines convecting sunward whereas the LLBL proton aurora is on closed field lines convecting antisunward. These IMAGE, DMSP, and SuperDARN observations reveal the structure and dynamics of the aurora and provide strong evidence for magnetic merging occurring at the high-latitude magnetopause poleward from the cusp. This merging process was very likely quasi-stationary.

Driving of Dramatic Geomagnetic Activity by Enhancement of Meso-Scale Polar-cap Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, L. R.; Gallardo-Lacourt, B.; Zou, Y.; Nishimura, Y.; Anderson, P. C.; Angelopoulos, V.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Mitchell, E. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Nishitani, N.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have shown that mesoscale flows are common within the polar cap ionosphere. They often cross the magnetic separatrix, and become are critical to the driving of geomagnetic activity. They lead, for example, to plasma sheet flow bursts, auroral poleward boundary intensifications, auroral streamers, substorms, auroral omega bands, and poleward motion of the polar cap boundary from reconnection. We have found large enhancements of these meso-scale ionospheric polar cap flows heading towards the nightside separatrix. These enhancements are common immediately after the impact of CME shocks under southward IMF, but can also occur in other situations, including without substantial change in the solar wind or IMF. These meso-scale flow enhancements, which must extent outward along magnetospheric field lines from the ionosphere, are seen to drive an almost immediate strong auroral, ionospheric and field-aligned current, and reconnection activity. The resulting activity is particularly dramatic during the initiation of CME storms, but may reflect a more generally occurring phenomenon of mesoscale flow enhancements leading to similar oval responses without a shock impact, including during and following the expansion phase some substorms. If this phenomenon is indeed common, it could lead to possibly fundamental questions, such as when do polar cap convection enhancements lead to a substorm growth phase versus leading directly to strong poleward expansion of, and strong activity within, the auroral oval field line region? Another critical question would be what leads to and causes the enhancements in meso-scale polar cap flows?

Global mountain topography and the fate of montane species under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsen, Paul R.; Tingley, Morgan W.

2015-08-01

Increasing evidence indicates that species throughout the world are responding to climate change by shifting their geographic distributions. Although shifts can be directionally heterogeneous, they often follow warming temperatures polewards and upslope. Montane species are of particular concern in this regard, as they are expected to face reduced available area of occupancy and increased risk of extinction with upslope movements. However, this expectation hinges on the assumption that surface area decreases monotonically as species move up mountainsides. We analysed the elevational availability of surface area for a global data set containing 182 of the world's mountain ranges. Sixty-eight per cent of these mountain ranges had topographies in which area did not decrease monotonically with elevation. Rather, mountain range topographies exhibited four distinct area-elevation patterns: decreasing (32% of ranges), increasing (6%), a mid-elevation peak in area (39%), and a mid-elevation trough in area (23%). These findings suggest that many species, particularly those of foothills and lower montane zones, may encounter increases in available area as a result of shifting upslope. A deeper understanding of underlying mountain topography can inform conservation priorities by revealing where shifting species stand to undergo area increases, decreases and bottlenecks as they respond to climate change.

Examination of Cross-Scale Coupling During Auroral Events using RENU2 and ISINGLASS Sounding Rocket Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenward, D. R.; Lessard, M.; Lynch, K. A.; Hysell, D. L.; Hampton, D. L.; Michell, R.; Samara, M.; Varney, R. H.; Oksavik, K.; Clausen, L. B. N.; Hecht, J. H.; Clemmons, J. H.; Fritz, B.

2017-12-01

The RENU2 sounding rocket (launched from Andoya rocket range on December 13th, 2015) observed Poleward Moving Auroral Forms within the dayside cusp. The ISINGLASS rockets (launched from Poker Flat rocket range on February 22, 2017 and March 2, 2017) both observed aurora during a substorm event. Despite observing very different events, both campaigns witnessed a high degree of small scale structuring within the larger auroral boundary, including Alfvenic signatures. These observations suggest a method of coupling large-scale energy input to fine scale structures within aurorae. During RENU2, small (sub-km) scale drivers persist for long (10s of minutes) time scales and result in large scale ionospheric (thermal electron) and thermospheric response (neutral upwelling). ISINGLASS observations show small scale drivers, but with short (minute) time scales, with ionospheric response characterized by the flight's thermal electron instrument (ERPA). The comparison of the two flights provides an excellent opportunity to examine ionospheric and thermospheric response to small scale drivers over different integration times.

The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts

PubMed Central

Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D.; Hay, Mark E.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L.; Booth, David J.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Feary, David A.; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J.; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A.; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K.

2014-01-01

Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. PMID:25009065

Soil Carbon Stocks in a Shifting Ecosystem; Climate Induced Migration of Mangroves into Salt Marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, L.; Osborne, T.; Feller, I. C.

2015-12-01

Across the globe, coastal wetland vegetation distributions are changing in response to climate change. The increase in global average surface temperature has already caused shifts in the structure and distribution of many ecological communities. In parts of the southeastern United States, increased winter temperatures have resulted in the poleward range expansion of mangroves at the expense of salt marsh habitat. Our work aims to document carbon storage in the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone and any potential changes in this reservoir that may ensue due to the shifting range of this habitat. Differences in SOM and C stocks along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Florida will be presented. The gradient studied spans 342 km and includes pure mangrove habitat, the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone, and pure salt marsh habitat.This latitudinal gradient gives us an exceptional opportunity to document and investigate ecosystem soil C modifications as mangroves transgress into salt marsh habitat due to climatic change.

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brander, Keith M; Brown, Chris; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin B; Sydeman, William J; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-11-04

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Swarm observations of field-aligned currents associated with pulsating auroral patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillies, D. M.; Knudsen, D.; Spanswick, E.; Donovan, E.; Burchill, J.; Patrick, M.

2015-11-01

We have performed a superposed epoch study of in situ field-aligned currents located near the edges of regions of pulsating aurora observed simultaneously using ground-based optical data from the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) all-sky imager (ASI) network and magnetometers on board the Swarm satellites. A total of nine traversals of Swarm over regions of pulsating aurora identified using THEMIS ASI were studied. We determined that in the cases where a clear boundary can be identified, strong downward currents are seen just poleward and equatorward of the pulsating patches. A downward current in the range of ~1-6 μA/m2 can be seen just poleward of the boundary. A weaker upward current of ~1-3 μA/m2 is observed throughout the interior of the patch. These observations indicate that currents carried by precipitating electrons within patches could close through horizontal currents and be returned at the edges, in agreement with Oguti and Hayashi (1984) and Hosokawa et al. (2010b). In addition to confirming these earlier results and adding to their statistical significance, the contribution of this study is to quantify the upward and downward current magnitudes, in some cases using two satellites traversing the same pulsating regions. Finally, we compare Swarm's two-satellite field-aligned current product to the single-satellite results and determine that the data product can be compromised in regions of pulsating aurora, a phenomenon that occurs over widespread regions and tends to persist for long periods of time. These results underscore the importance of electrical coupling between the ionosphere and magnetosphere in regions of patchy pulsating aurora.

Climatology and inter-annual variability of the polar mesospheric winds inferred from meteor radar observations over Sodankylä (67N, 26E) during solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukianova, Renata; Kozlovsky, Alexander; Lester, Mark

2018-06-01

The inter-annual variability, climatological mean wind and tide fields in the northern polar mesosphere/lower thermosphere region of 82-98 km height are studied using observations by the meteor radar which has operated continuously during solar cycle 24 (from December 2008 onward) at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (67N, 26E). Summer mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow, up to 25 m/s, at lower heights and eastward flow, up to 30 m/s, at upper heights. In the winter an eastward flow, up to 10 m/s, dominates at all heights. The meridional winds are characterized by a relatively weak poleward flow (few m/s) in the winter and equatorward flow in the summer, with a jet core (∼15 m/s) located slightly below 90 km. These systematically varying winds are dominated by the semidiurnal tides. The largest amplitudes, up to 30 m/s, are observed at higher altitudes in winter and a secondary maximum is seen in August-September. The diurnal tides are almost a factor of two weaker and peak in summer. The variability of individual years is dominated by the winter perturbations. During the period of observations major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred in January 2009 and 2013. During these events the wind fields were strongly modified. The lowest altitude eastward winds maximized up to 25 m/s, that is by more twice that of the non-SSW years. The poleward flow considerably increases (up 10 m/s) and extends from the lower heights throughout the whole altitude range. The annual pattern in temperature at ∼90 km height over Sodankyla consists of warm winters (up to 200 K) and cold summers (∼120 K).

How Much Flux does a Flux Transfer Event Transfer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fear, R. C.; Trenchi, L.; Coxon, J.; Milan, S. E.

2016-12-01

Flux transfer events are bursts of reconnection at the dayside magnetopause, which give rise to characteristic signatures that are observed by a range of magnetospheric/ionospheric instrumentation. Spacecraft situated near the magnetopause observe a bipolar variation in the component of the magnetic field normal to the magnetopause (BN); auroral instrumentation (either ground- or space-based) observe poleward moving auroral forms which indicate the convection of newly-opened flux into the polar cap, and ionospheric radars similarly observe pulsed ionospheric flows or poleward moving radar auroral forms. One outstanding problem is the fact that there is a fundamental mismatch between the estimates of the flux that is opened by each flux transfer event - in other words, their overall significance in the Dungey cycle. Spacecraft-based estimates of the flux content of individual FTEs correspond to each event transferring flux equivalent to approximately 1% of the open flux in the magnetosphere, whereas studies based on global-scale radar and auroral observations suggest this figure could be more like 10%. In the former case, flux transfer events would be a minor detail in the Dungey cycle, but in the latter they could be its main driver. We present observations of a conjunction between flux transfer event signatures observed by the Cluster spacecraft, and pulsed ionospheric flows observed by the SuperDARN network on the 8th February 2002. Over the course of an hour, a similar number of FTE signatures were observed by Cluster (at 13 MLT) and the Prince George radar (at 7 MLT). We argue that the reason for the existing mismatch in flux estimates is that implicit assumptions about flux transfer event structure lead to a major underestimate of the flux content based on spacecraft observations. If these assumptions are removed, a much better match is found.

Configuration and Generation of Substorm Current Wedge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Xiangning

The substorm current wedge (SCW), a core element of substorm dynamics coupling the magnetotail to the ionosphere, is crucial in understanding substorms. It has been suggested that the field-aligned currents (FACs) in the SCW are caused by either pressure gradients or flow vortices, or both. Our understanding of FAC generations is based predominately on numerical simulations, because it has not been possible to organize spacecraft observations in a coordinate system determined by the SCW. This dissertation develops an empirical inversion model of the current wedge and inverts midlatitude magnetometer data to obtain the parameters of the current wedge for three solar cycles. This database enables statistical data analysis of spacecraft plasma and magnetic field observations relative to the SCW coordinate. In chapter 2, a new midlatitude positive bay (MPB) index is developed and calculated for three solar cycles of data. The MPB index is processed to determine the substorm onset time, which is shown to correspond to the auroral breakup onset with at most 1-2 minutes difference. Substorm occurrence rate is found to depend on solar wind speed while substorm duration is rather constant, suggesting that substorm process has an intrinsic pattern independent of external driving. In chapter 3, an SCW inversion technique is developed to determine the strength and locations of the FACs in an SCW. The inversion parameters for FAC strength and location, and ring current strength are validated by comparison with other measurements. In chapter 4, the connection between earthward flows and auroral poleward expansion is examined using improved mapping, obtained from a newly-developed dynamic magnetospheric model by superimposing a standard magnetospheric field model with substorm current wedge obtained from the inversion technique. It is shown that the ionospheric projection of flows observed at a fixed point in the equatorial plane map to the bright aurora as it expands poleward, suggesting that auroral poleward expansion is mainly a consequence of magnetic dipolarization caused by the SCW. Chapter 5 shows that increased plasma pressure caused by flow braking has a temporal pattern similar to that of the currents in the SCW. In contrast, flow vortices vanish quickly, suggesting that pressure gradient is an important factor in generating the SCW. The measured pressure gradients are found to be organized relative to SCW central meridian. Nonalignment between pressure gradient and flux tube volume gradient lead to the generation of an SCW with quadrupole FACs (inner and outer loop of FACs). Because the inner current loop is weaker than the outer loop, the combined magnetic effect of the two current loops is similar to a classic SCW. The final chapter studies the magnetic flux transport by earthward flows, and accumulated inside the SCW and enclosed within auroral poleward boundary. Their good agreement suggests that flux accumulation causes magnetic dipolarization and auroral poleward expansion. The strength of the SCW is positively correlated with the amount of magnetic flux accumulated.

Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Brown, Ross D.

2007-11-01

Monotonic trend analysis of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) over the period 1972-2006 with the Mann-Kendall test reveals significant declines in SCE during spring over North America and Eurasia, with lesser declines during winter and some increases in fall SCE. The weekly mean trend attains -1.28, -0.78, and -0.48 × 106 km2 (35 years)-1 over the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Eurasia, respectively. The standardized SCE time series vary and trend coherently over Eurasia and North America, with evidence of a poleward amplification of decreasing SCE trends during spring. Multiple linear regression analyses reveal a significant dependence of the retreat of the spring continental SCE on latitude and elevation. The poleward amplification is consistent with an enhanced snow-albedo feedback over northern latitudes that acts to reinforce an initial anomaly in the cryospheric system.

Poleward Shift in Ventilation of the North Atlantic Subtropical Underwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Lisan; Jin, Xiangze; Liu, Hao

2018-01-01

We report the findings that the sea surface salinity maximum (SSS-max) in the North Atlantic has poleward expanded in recent decades and that the expansion is a main driver of the decadal changes in subtropical underwater (STUW). We present observational evidence that the STUW ventilation zone (marked by the location of the 36.7 isohaline) has been displaced northward by1.2 ± 0.36° latitude for the 34 year (1979-2012) period. As a result of the redistribution of the SSS-max water, the ventilation zone has shifted northward and expanded westward into the Sargasso Sea. The ventilation rate of STUW has increased, which is attributed to the increased lateral induction of the sloping mixed layer. STUW has become broader, deeper, and saltier, and the changes are most pronounced on the northern and western edges of the high-saline core.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming: OCEAN HEAT AND POLAR WARMING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2-doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at highmore » latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.« less

High latitude currents in the 0600 to 0900 MLT sector - Observations from Viking and DMSP-F7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bythrow, P. F.; Potemra, T. A.; Zanetti, L. J.; Erlandson, R. A.; Hardy, D. A.; Rich, F. J.; Acuna, M. H.

1987-01-01

High-resolution magnetic field and charged-particle data acquired on March 25, 1986 by the Viking and DMSP-F7 satellites, as they traversed the dawn sector auroral zone on nearly antiparallel trajectories within 40 min of each oher, are analyzed. Magnetic field measurements by Viking at 0850 MLT and by DMSP at 0630 MLT indicate the presence of a large-scale earthward-directed region 1 Birkeland current and an upward-flowing region 2 current. Both satellites also observed a third Birkeland current adjacent to and poleward of the region 1 system with opposite flow. This poleward system is about 0.5 deg invariant latitude wide and has a current density comparable to the region 1 and 2 systems. The highest-latitude current is identified as region 0. Its charged-particle signatures were used to infer field line mapping to the equatorial plane.

Project Centaur. [for earth dayside magnetic cleft investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brence, W. A.; Hardin, J. W.; Crook, E. D.; Roberts, H.

1982-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Canada Centre for Space Science, National Research Council of Canada (NRCC), conducted a cooperative sounding rocket campaign in the Canadian Arctic during November/December 1981. The objective of the campaign was to investigate the earth's dayside magnetic cleft region. The project was named CENTAUR for Cleft Energetics Transport and Ultraviolet Radiation. Remote launch support facilities were established at Cape Parry, NWT, Canada (70 deg 10 min N latitude, 124 deg 40 min W longitude). The cleft region is accessible from this location when launched poleward during reasonably quiet magnetic activity. Five large sounding rockets were launched (3 NASA, 2 NRCC). About 30 scientific experiments were launched, and an extensive array of ground based experiments was established at Cape Parry and at Sachs Harbour, Banks Island, 130 miles poleward. This paper discusses the unique organization, planning, facilities, instrumentation, and operation required to support the campaign, and looks briefly at the results.

Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yara, Y.; Vogt, M.; Fujii, M.; Yamano, H.; Hauri, C.; Steinacher, M.; Gruber, N.; Yamanaka, Y.

2012-12-01

Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of coral habitats is classified on the basis of the currently observed regional ranges for temperature and saturation states with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that, under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats are projected to expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between regions where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and regions where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the habitat suitable for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan may be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The habitat suitable for the temperate coral communities is also projected to decrease, although at a less pronounced rate, due to the higher tolerance of temperate corals for low Ωarag. Our study has two important caveats: first, it does not consider the potential adaptation of the coral communities, which would permit them to colonize habitats that are outside their current range. Second, it also does not consider whether or not coral communities can migrate quickly enough to actually occupy newly emerging habitats. As such, our results serve as a baseline for the assessment of the future evolution of coral habitats, but the consideration of important biological and ecological factors and feedbacks will be required to make more accurate projections.

Aboveground Allometric Models for Freeze-Affected Black Mangroves (Avicennia germinans): Equations for a Climate Sensitive Mangrove-Marsh Ecotone

PubMed Central

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Larriviere, Jack C.; From, Andrew S.

2014-01-01

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone. PMID:24971938

Iapetus: Unique Surface Properties and a Global Color Dichotomy from Cassini Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denk, Tilmann; Neukum, Gerhard; Roatsch, Thomas; Porco, Carolyn C.; Burns, Joseph A.; Galuba, Götz G.; Schmedemann, Nico; Helfenstein, Paul; Thomas, Peter C.; Wagner, Roland J.; West, Robert A.

2010-01-01

Since 2004, Saturn’s moon Iapetus has been observed repeatedly with the Imaging Science Subsystem of the Cassini spacecraft. The images show numerous impact craters down to the resolution limit of ~10 meters per pixel. Small, bright craters within the dark hemisphere indicate a dark blanket thickness on the order of meters or less. Dark, equator-facing and bright, poleward-facing crater walls suggest temperature-driven water-ice sublimation as the process responsible for local albedo patterns. Imaging data also reveal a global color dichotomy, wherein both dark and bright materials on the leading side have a substantially redder color than the respective trailing-side materials. This global pattern indicates an exogenic origin for the redder leading-side parts and suggests that the global color dichotomy initiated the thermal formation of the global albedo dichotomy.

Iapetus: unique surface properties and a global color dichotomy from Cassini imaging.

PubMed

Denk, Tilmann; Neukum, Gerhard; Roatsch, Thomas; Porco, Carolyn C; Burns, Joseph A; Galuba, Götz G; Schmedemann, Nico; Helfenstein, Paul; Thomas, Peter C; Wagner, Roland J; West, Robert A

2010-01-22

Since 2004, Saturn's moon Iapetus has been observed repeatedly with the Imaging Science Subsystem of the Cassini spacecraft. The images show numerous impact craters down to the resolution limit of approximately 10 meters per pixel. Small, bright craters within the dark hemisphere indicate a dark blanket thickness on the order of meters or less. Dark, equator-facing and bright, poleward-facing crater walls suggest temperature-driven water-ice sublimation as the process responsible for local albedo patterns. Imaging data also reveal a global color dichotomy, wherein both dark and bright materials on the leading side have a substantially redder color than the respective trailing-side materials. This global pattern indicates an exogenic origin for the redder leading-side parts and suggests that the global color dichotomy initiated the thermal formation of the global albedo dichotomy.

The Effect of Subauroral Polarization Streams on Ionosphere and Thermosphere During the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm: Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jia-Peng; Deng, Yue; Zhang, Dong-He; Lu, Yang; Sheng, Cheng; Zhang, Shun-Rong

2018-03-01

Using the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar observations during 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm, subauroral polarization streams (SAPSs) have been specified in the nonhydrostatic Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model simulations. The results reveal that the effect of SAPS on the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere system includes the following: (1) Sudden frictional heating of SAPS results in acoustic-gravity waves in the thermosphere. The vertical oscillation is localized, while the meridional disturbance propagates poleward and equatorward. (2) The SAPS-associated horizontal wind field includes an enhanced westward wind within SAPS channel and a twin of vortex-like winds north (clockwise) and south (anticlockwise) of subauroral latitudes. (3) Due to the neutral-ion drag, ions in the vicinity of SAPS channel oscillate vertically with neutrals, resulting in a perturbation of 0.3 TECu in ionospheric total electron content. The SAPS-induced traveling atmospheric disturbances can elevate the plasma and increase the total electron content in midlatitude ionosphere. (4) It is confirmed that the Coriolis force can contribute to the poleward turning of the neutral wind during the post-SAPS interval. In addition, the traveling atmospheric disturbance induced by the variation of auroral input and high-latitude convection is possibly the primary cause of the poleward neutral wind surge during the magnetic storm on 17-18 March 2015. The combination of the two factors can make the northward meridional wind surge reach a magnitude of 100 m/s. This study improves our understanding of the SAPS's effect on neutral dynamics and ion-neutral coupling processes during geomagnetically disturbed intervals.

Transient response of the Northwestern Iberian upwelling regime.

PubMed

Ferreira Cordeiro, Nuno Gonçalo; Dubert, Jesus; Nolasco, Rita; Desmond Barton, Eric

2018-01-01

The hydrography and dynamics of NW Iberian margin were explored for July 2009, based on a set of in situ and remote sensing observations. Zonal sections of standard CTD casts, towed CTD (SeaSoar), Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) and Lagrangian surveys were made to characterize cycles of upwelling and relaxation in this region. Two periods of northerly winds, bounded by relaxation periods, were responsible for the formation of an upwelling front extending to the shelf edge. An equatorward flow was quickly set up on the shelf responding to the northerly wind pulses. South of Cape Silleiro, the development and subsequent relaxation of an upwelling event was intensively surveyed in the shelf, following a Lagrangian drifter transported by the upwelling jet. This region is part of an upwelling center extending from Cape Silleiro to Porto, where the surface temperature was colder than the neighboring regions, under upwelling favorable winds. As these winds relaxed, persistent poleward flow developed, originating south of the upwelling center and consisting in an inner-shelf tongue of warm waters. During an event of strong southerly wind, the poleward flow was observed to extend to the whole continental shelf. Although the cruise was executed during summertime, the presence of river-plumes was observed over the shelf. The interaction of the plumes with the circulation on the shelf was also described in terms of coastal convergence and offshore advection. The sampling of the offshore and slope regions showed the presence of the Iberian poleward current offshore and a persistent equatorward flow over the upper slope.

Decadal change of the south Atlantic ocean Angola-Benguela frontal zone since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.; Sun, Xiaoming

2018-01-01

High-resolution simulations with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an intermediate-level mixed layer ocean model along with multiple atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses are analyzed to understand how and why the Angola-Benguela frontal Zone (ABFZ) has changed since 1980. A southward shift of 0.05°-0.55° latitude decade-1 in the annual mean ABFZ position accompanied by an intensification of + 0.05 to + 0.13 K/100-km decade-1 has occurred as ocean mixed layer temperatures have warmed (cooled) equatorward (poleward) of the front over the 1980-2014 period. These changes are captured in a 35-year model integration. The oceanic warming north of the ABFZ is associated with a weakening of vertical entrainment, reduced cooling associated with vertical diffusion, and a deepening of the mixed layer along the Angola coast. These changes coincide with a steady weakening of the onshore atmospheric flow as the zonal pressure gradient between the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the Congo Basin weakens. Oceanic cooling poleward of the ABFZ is primarily due to enhanced advection of cooler water from the south and east, increased cooling by vertical diffusion, and shoaling of the mixed layer depth. In the atmosphere, these changes are related to an intensification and poleward shift of the South Atlantic sub-tropical anticyclone as surface winds, hence the westward mixed layer ocean currents, intensify in the Benguela upwelling region along the Namibian coast. With a few caveats, these findings demonstrate that air/sea interactions play a prominent role in influencing the observed decadal variability of the ABFZ over the southeastern Atlantic since 1980.

By-controlled convection and field-aligned currents near midnight auroral oval for northward interplanetary magnetic field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taguchi, S.; Sugiura, M.; Iyemori, T.; Winningham, J. D.; Slavin, J. A.

1994-01-01

Using the Dynamics Explorer (DE) 2 magnetic and electric field and plasma data, B(sub y)- controlled convection and field-aligned currents in the midnight sector for northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are examined. The results of an analysis of the electric field data show that when IMF is stable and when its magnitude is large, a coherent B(sub y)-controlled convection exists near the midnight auroral oval in the ionosphere having adequate conductivities. When B(sub y) is negative, the convection consists of a westward (eastward) plasma flow at the lower latitudes and an eastward (westward) plasma flow at the higher latitudes in the midnight sector in the northern (southern) ionosphere. When B(sub y) is positive, the flow directions are reversed. The distribution of the field-aligned currents associated with the B(sub y)-controlled convection, in most cases, shows a three-sheet structure. In accordance with the convection the directions of the three sheets are dependent on the sign of B(sub y). The location of disappearance of the precipitating intense electrons having energies of a few keV is close to the convection reversal surface. However, the more detailed relationship between the electron precipitation boundary and the convection reversal surface depends on the case. In some cases the precipitating electrons extend beyond the convection reversal surface, and in others the poleward boundary terminates at a latitude lower than the reversal surface. Previous studies suggest that the poleward boundary of the electrons having energies of a few keV is not necessarily coincident with an open/closed bounary. Thus the open/closed boundary may be at a latitude higher than the poleward boundary of the electron precipitation, or it may be at a latitude lower than the poleward boundary of the electron precipitation. We discuss relationships between the open/closed boundary and the convection reversal surface. When as a possible choice we adopt a view that the open/closed boundary agrees with the convection reversal surface, we can explain qualitatively the configuration of the B(sub y)-controlled convection on the open and close field line regions by proposing a mapping modified in accordance with IMF B(sub y).

Roles of divergent and rotational winds in the kinetic energy balance during intense convective activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Browning, P. A.

1983-01-01

Contributions of divergent and rotational wind components to the synoptic-scale kinetic energy balance are described using rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals from NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability experiment. Two intense thunderstorm complexes occurred during the period. Energy budgets are described for the entire computational region and for limited volumes that enclosed storm-induced, upper level wind maxima located poleward of convection. Although small in magnitude, the divergent wind component played an important role in the cross-contour generation and horizontal flux divergence of kinetic energy. The importance of V(D) appears directly related to the presence and intensity of convection. Although K(D) usually comprised less than 10 percent of the total kinetic energy content, generation of kinetic energy by V(D) was a major factor in the creation of upper-level wind maxima to the north of the storm complexes. Omission of the divergent wind apparently would lead to serious misrepresentations of the energy balance. A random error analysis is presented to assess confidence limits in the various energy parameters.

Ensemble-based diagnosis of the large-scale processes associated with multiple high-impact weather events over North America during late October 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B. J.; Bosart, L. F.; Keyser, D.

2013-12-01

During late October 2007, the interaction between a deep polar trough and Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kajiki off the eastern Asian coast perturbed the North Pacific jet stream and resulted in the development of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train extending into North America, contributing to three concurrent high-impact weather events in North America: wildfires in southern California associated with strong Santa Ana winds, a cold surge into eastern Mexico, and widespread heavy rainfall (~150 mm) in the south-central United States. Observational analysis indicates that these high-impact weather events were all dynamically linked with the development of a major high-latitude ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a deep trough over central North America. In this study, global operational ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) obtained from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used to characterize the medium-range predictability of the large-scale flow pattern associated with the three events and to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes favorable, or unfavorable, for the occurrence of the three events. Examination of the ECMWF forecasts leading up to the time period of the three high-impact weather events (~23-25 October 2007) indicates that ensemble spread (i.e., uncertainty) in the 500-hPa geopotential height field develops in connection with downstream baroclinic development (DBD) across the North Pacific, associated with the interaction between TC Kajiki and the polar trough along the eastern Asian coast, and subsequently moves downstream into North America, yielding considerable uncertainty with respect to the structure, amplitude, and position of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Ensemble sensitivity analysis conducted for key sensible weather parameters corresponding to the three high-impact weather events, including relative humidity, temperature, and precipitation, demonstrates quantitatively that all three high-impact weather events are closely linked with the development of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Moreover, results of this analysis indicate that the development of the ridge-trough pattern is modulated by DBD and cyclogenesis upstream over the central and eastern North Pacific. Specifically, ensemble members exhibiting less intense cyclogenesis and a more poleward cyclone track over the central and eastern North Pacific feature the development of a poleward-displaced ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a cut-off low over the Intermountain West, an unfavorable scenario for the occurrence the three high-impact weather events. Conversely, ensemble members exhibiting more intense cyclogenesis and a less poleward cyclone track feature persistent ridging along the western coast of North America and trough development over central North America, establishing a favorable flow pattern for the three high-impact weather events. Results demonstrate that relatively small initial differences in the large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific among ensemble members can result in large uncertainty in the forecast downstream flow response over North America.

A three-dimensional autonomous nonlinear dynamical system modelling equatorial ocean flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu-Kruse, Delia

2018-04-01

We investigate a nonlinear three-dimensional model for equatorial flows, finding exact solutions that capture the most relevant geophysical features: depth-dependent currents, poleward or equatorial surface drift and a vertical mixture of upward and downward motions.

A persistent northern boundary of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation over Central Asia during the Holocene.

PubMed

Ramisch, Arne; Lockot, Gregori; Haberzettl, Torsten; Hartmann, Kai; Kuhn, Gerhard; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Schimpf, Stefan; Schulte, Philipp; Stauch, Georg; Wang, Rong; Wünnemann, Bernd; Yan, Dada; Zhang, Yongzhan; Diekmann, Bernhard

2016-05-13

Extra-tropical circulation systems impede poleward moisture advection by the Indian Summer Monsoon. In this context, the Himalayan range is believed to insulate the south Asian circulation from extra-tropical influences and to delineate the northern extent of the Indian Summer Monsoon in central Asia. Paleoclimatic evidence, however, suggests increased moisture availability in the Early Holocene north of the Himalayan range which is attributed to an intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Nevertheless, mechanisms leading to a surpassing of the Himalayan range and the northern maximum extent of summer monsoonal influence remain unknown. Here we show that the Kunlun barrier on the northern Tibetan Plateau [~36°N] delimits Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation during the Holocene. The presence of the barrier relocates the insulation effect 1,000 km further north, allowing a continental low intensity branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon which is persistent throughout the Holocene. Precipitation intensities at its northern extent seem to be driven by differentiated solar heating of the Northern Hemisphere indicating dependency on energy-gradients rather than absolute radiation intensities. The identified spatial constraints of monsoonal precipitation will facilitate the prediction of future monsoonal precipitation patterns in Central Asia under varying climatic conditions.

Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

PubMed Central

Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

PubMed

Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

You, Jianling; Qin, Xiaoping; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Lougheed, Stephen C; Wang, Mingcheng; Zhou, Wen; Ouyang, Dongxin; Zhou, Yin; Xu, Jianchu; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Song, Zhiping

2018-04-12

Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as "nowhere to go". To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000-140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the "nowhere to go" hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.

Is geographic range of the Contiguous United States' mangroves expanding towards the pole due to climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giri, C. P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the distribution and abundance of mangrove species within and outside of their historic geographic range could serve as an environmental indicator of climate change. It is hypothesized that the mangrove forests in the Continental United States (CONUS) are expanding towards the North Pole due to climate change emanating from decreases in the frequency and severity of extreme cold events and sea level rise. We used 35 y of satellite imagery and in-situ observation for the entire CONUS and reported that (i) pole-ward expansion of mangrove forest in CONUS is inconclusive, (ii) landward and seaward expansion is occurring within the historic northernmost limit, and (ii) specific causes of mangrove changes are multi-faceted and site specific. The northernmost latitudinal limit of mangrove forests in Florida (81.3172990 W, 29.9454140 N), Louisiana (88.8603570 W, 30.0380070 N), and Texas (-96.4102550 W, 28.4289130 N) have not expanded towards the pole from 1980 to 2015. However, mangrove area has expanded within the northernmost boundary. Several confounding factors such as sea level rise, absence or presence of sub-freezing temperatures, land use change, impoundment/dredging, changing hydrology, fire, storm, sedimentation and erosion, and mangrove planting are responsible for the change. For instance, sea level rise is attributed to landward and seaward expansion and relatively milder winters and absence of sub-freezing temperatures in recent decades are causing mangrove variability and expansion. The total 2015 mangrove area in CONUS was 251,293 ha. covering 98.1% in Florida,0.6% in Louisiana, and 1.3% in Texas. Of the total CONUS area, Florida increased by 3.6% (3.8% or 9,026 ha. of Florida's area), decreased in Louisiana by 0.2% (-25% or 536 ha. of Louisiana's area), and increased in Texas by 0.9% (+234% or 2,259 ha of Texas' area). While 35 years of analysis provides reliable observations of recent drivers for mangrove dynamics, this timeframe is relatively short and the historical mangrove dynamics of the pre-satellite era remains unknown. Results from this study will serve as a baseline for future studies.

Long-lived planetary vortices and their evolution: Conservative intermediate geostrophic model.

PubMed

Sutyrin, Georgi G.

1994-06-01

Large, long-lived vortices, surviving during many turnaround times and far longer than the dispersive linear Rossby wave packets, are abundant in planetary atmospheres and oceans. Nonlinear effects which prevent dispersive decay of intense cyclones and anticyclones and provide their self-propelling propagation are revised here using shallow water equations and their balanced approximations. The main physical mechanism allowing vortical structures to be long-lived in planetary fluid is the quick fluid rotation inside their cores which prevents growth in the amplitude of asymmetric circulation arising due to the beta-effect. Intense vortices of both signs survive essentially longer than the linear Rossby wave packet if their azimuthal velocity is much larger than the Rossby wave speed. However, in the long-time evolution, cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices behave essentially differently that is illustrated by the conservative intermediate geostrophic model. Asymmetric circulation governing vortex propagation is described by the azimuthal mode m=1 for the initial value problem as well as for steadily propagating solutions. Cyclonic vortices move west-poleward decaying gradually due to Rossby wave radiation while anticyclonic ones adjust to non-radiating solitary vortices. Slow weakening of an intense cyclone with decreasing of its size and shrinking of the core is described assuming zero azimuthal velocity outside the core while drifting poleward. The poleward tendency of the cyclone motion relative to the stirring flow corresponds to characteristic trajectories of tropical cyclones in the Earth's atmosphere. The asymmetry in dispersion-nonlinear properties of cyclones and anticyclones is thought to be one of the essential reasons for the observed predominance of anticyclones among long-lived vortices in the atmospheres of the giant planets and also among intrathermoclinic eddies in the ocean.

Wind-driven upwelling effects on cephalopod paralarvae: Octopus vulgaris and Loliginidae off the Galician coast (NE Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Jaime; Álvarez-Salgado, X. Antón; González, Ángel F.; Souto, Carlos; Gilcoto, Miguel; Guerra, Ángel

2016-02-01

Circulation patterns of coastal upwelling areas may have central consequences for the abundance and cross-shelf transport of the larval stages of many species. Previous studies have provided evidences that larvae distribution results from a combination of subtidal circulation, species-specific behaviour and larval sources. However, most of these works were conducted on organisms characterised by small-sized and abundant early life phases. Here, we studied the influence of the hydrography and circulation of the Ría de Vigo and adjacent shelf (NW Iberian upwelling system) on the paralarval abundance of two contrasting cephalopods, the benthic common octopus (Octopus vulgaris) and the pelagic squids (Loliginidae). We sampled repeatedly a cross-shore transect during the years 2003-2005 and used zero inflated models to accommodate the scarcity and patchy distribution of cephalopod paralarvae. The probability of catching early stages of both cephalopods was higher at night. Octopus paralarvae were more abundant in the surface layer at night whereas loliginids preferred the bottom layer regardless of the sampling time. Abundance of both cephalopods increased when shelf currents flowed polewards, water temperature was high and water column stability was low. The probability of observing an excess of zero catches decreased during the year for octopus and at high current speed for loliginids. In addition, the circulation pattern conditioned the body size distribution of both paralarvae; while the average size of the captured octopuses increased (decreased) with poleward currents at daylight (nighttime), squids were smaller with poleward currents regardless of the sampling time. These results contribute to the understanding of the effects that the hydrography and subtidal circulation of a coastal upwelling have on the fate of cephalopod early life stages.

Cryptic outgassing from the Southern Ocean during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, J. E.; Moy, C. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Vandergoes, M.; Curtin, L.; Gilmer, G.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean is an important pre-anthropogenic source of carbon to the atmosphere. When Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds are shifted poleward, wind-driven upwelling brings carbon-rich deep water to the surface. Multiple studies have shown that this mechanism is particularly important during the last deglaciation and is partly influenced by climate and oceanographic change triggered by the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and the tropics. Here we show that the middle Holocene, too, was an important time for increased upwelling. New paleoecological reconstructions, inorganic and organic geochemical data, and stable isotope data from lakes and peatlands on New Zealand's South Island and Subantarctic Islands show strong evidence for poleward-shifted Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds during the middle Holocene. Warming in the northern hemisphere either weakens westerlies or shifts them southward, reinvigorating the CO2 outgassing from the Southern Ocean. However, if, like in the deglacial period, the Southern Ocean was a source of carbon to the atmosphere in the middle Holocene, why do we not see ice-core evidence for increased pCO2 of the atmosphere? To answer this question, we look north, to the peatlands of the sub-Boreal, Boreal, and Arctic regions. We find, using a new compilation of peatland carbon accumulation rate data, that the northern peatland carbon sink, which was not a factor in the deglacial carbon cycle, could be strong enough in the mid Holocene to counterbalance the increased outgassing. The peatland carbon sink is strongest at the same time as our records from the subantarctic show that the SHWW are in a weakened or poleward-shifted state. Our work shows how the subantarctic has revealed a globally important mechanism impacting the carbon cycle of the Holocene.

Propagating and Non-propagating Annular Modes and Principal Oscillation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plumb, R. A.; Sheshadri, A.

2016-12-01

The leading "annular mode" in each hemisphere — usually defined as the dominant EOF of surface pressure or of zonal mean zonal wind variability — appears as a dipolar structure straddling the mean midlatitude jet and thus seems to describe north-south wobbling of the jet latitude. However, extratropical zonal wind anomalies frequently tend to migrate poleward. This behavior can be described by the first two EOFs, the first (AM1) being the dipolar structure, and the second (AM2) having a tripolar structure centered on the mean jet. (AM2 explains a significant amount of variance, though less than AM1.) Taken in isolation, AM1 thus describes a north-south wobbling of the jet position, while AM2 describes a strengthening and narrowing (or weakening and broadening) of the jet. However, despite the fact that they are spatially orthogonal, and their corresponding time series temporally orthogonal, AM1 and AM2 are not independent, but show significant lag-correlations which reveal the poleward propagation. The EOFs are not modes of the underlying dynamical system governing the zonal flow evolution. The true modes can be estimated using principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis. The leading POPs manifest themselves as a pair of complex conjugate structures with conjugate eigenvalues thus, in reality, constituting a single, complex, mode that describes poleward propagating anomalies. This mode then shows up as AM1 and AM2 in EOF analyses. Even though the principal components associated with the two leading EOFs decay at different rates, each decays faster than the true mode. In the propagating regime, these facts have implications for the use of autocorrelations and cross-correlations to quantify eddy feedback and the susceptibility of the mode to external perturbations, including the response to stratospheric anomalies.

Solar-cycle Variations of Meridional Flows in the Solar Convection Zone Using Helioseismic Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chia-Hsien; Chou, Dean-Yi

2018-06-01

The solar meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow in solar meridional planes, extending through the convection zone. Here we study its solar-cycle variations in the convection zone using SOHO/MDI helioseismic data from 1996 to 2010, including two solar minima and one maximum. The travel-time difference between northward and southward acoustic waves is related to the meridional flow along the wave path. Applying the ray approximation and the SOLA inversion method to the travel-time difference measured in a previous study, we obtain the meridional flow distributions in 0.67 ≤ r ≤ 0.96R ⊙ at the minimum and maximum. At the minimum, the flow has a three-layer structure: poleward in the upper convection zone, equatorward in the middle convection zone, and poleward again in the lower convection zone. The flow speed is close to zero within the error bar near the base of the convection zone. The flow distribution changes significantly from the minimum to the maximum. The change above 0.9R ⊙ shows two phenomena: first, the poleward flow speed is reduced at the maximum; second, an additional convergent flow centered at the active latitudes is generated at the maximum. These two phenomena are consistent with the surface meridional flow reported in previous studies. The change in flow extends all the way down to the base of the convection zone, and the pattern of the change below 0.9R ⊙ is more complicated. However, it is clear that the active latitudes play a role in the flow change: the changes in flow speed below and above the active latitudes have opposite signs. This suggests that magnetic fields could be responsible for the flow change.

Cluster observations of ion dispersion discontinuities in the polar cusp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escoubet, C. P.; Berchem, J.; Pitout, F.; Richard, R. L.; Trattner, K. J.; Grison, B.; Taylor, M. G.; Masson, A.; Dunlop, M. W.; Dandouras, I. S.; Reme, H.; Fazakerley, A. N.

2009-12-01

The reconnection between the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the Earth’s magnetic field is taking place at the magnetopause on magnetic field lines threading through the polar cusp. When the IMF is southward, reconnection occurs near the subsolar point, which is magnetically connected to the equatorward boundary of the polar cusp. Subsequently the ions injected through the reconnection point precipitate in the cusp and are dispersed poleward. If reconnection is continuous and operates at constant rate, the ion dispersion is smooth and continuous. On the other hand if the reconnection rate varies, we expect interruption in the dispersion forming energy steps or staircase. Similarly, multiple entries near the magnetopause could also produce steps at low or mid-altitude when a spacecraft is crossing subsequently the field lines originating from these multiple sources. In addition, motion of the magnetopause induced by solar wind pressure changes or erosion due to reconnection can also induce a motion of the polar cusp and a disruption of the ions dispersion observed by a spacecraft. Cluster with four spacecraft following each other in the mid-altitude cusp can be used to distinguish between these “temporal” and “spatial” effects. We will present a cusp crossing with two spacecraft, separated by around two minutes. The two spacecraft observed a very similar dispersion with a step in energy in its centre and two other dispersions poleward. We will show that the steps could be temporal (assuming that the time between two reconnection bursts corresponds to the time delay between the two spacecraft) but it would be a fortuitous coincidence. On the other hand the steps and the two poleward dispersions could be explained by spatial effects if we take into account the motion of the open-closed boundary between the two spacecraft crossings.

Geomagnetically conjugate observations of ionospheric and thermospheric variations accompanied by a midnight brightness wave at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukushima, D.; Shiokawa, K.; Otsuka, Y.; Kubota, M.; Yokoyama, T.; Nishioka, M.; Komonjinda, S.; Yatini, C. Y.

2017-08-01

We conducted geomagnetically conjugate observations of 630-nm airglow for a midnight brightness wave (MBW) at Kototabang, Indonesia [geomagnetic latitude (MLAT): 10.0°S], and Chiang Mai, Thailand (MLAT: 8.9°N), which are geomagnetically conjugate points at low latitudes. An airglow enhancement that was considered to be an MBW was observed in OI (630-nm) airglow images at Kototabang around local midnight from 2240 to 2430 LT on February 7, 2011. This MBW propagated south-southwestward, which is geomagnetically poleward, at a velocity of 290 m/s. However, a similar wave was not observed in the 630-nm airglow images at Chiang Mai. This is the first evidence of an MBW that does not have geomagnetic conjugacy, which also implies generation of MBW only in one side of the hemisphere from the equator. We simultaneously observed thermospheric neutral winds observed by a co-located Fabry-Perot interferometer at Kototabang. The observed meridional winds turned from northward (geomagnetically equatorward) to southward (geomagnetically poleward) just before the wave was observed. This indicates that the observed MBW was generated by the poleward winds which push ionospheric plasma down along geomagnetic field lines, thereby increasing the 630-nm airglow intensity. The bottomside ionospheric heights observed by ionosondes rapidly decreased at Kototabang and slightly increased at Chiang Mai. We suggest that the polarization electric field inside the observed MBW is projected to the northern hemisphere, causing the small height increase observed at Chiang Mai. This implies that electromagnetic coupling between hemispheres can occur even though the original disturbance is caused purely by the neutral wind.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Effects of Southern Hemispheric Wind Changes on Global Oxygen and the Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzlaff, J.; Dietze, H.; Oschlies, A.

2016-02-01

We use a coupled ocean biogeochemistry-circulation model to compare the impact of changes in southern hemispheric winds with that of warming induced buoyancy fluxes on dissolved oxygen. Changes in the southern hemispheric wind fields, which are in line with an observed shift of the southern annual mode, are a combination of a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern westerlies. We differentiate between effects caused by a strengthening of the westerlies and effects of a southward shift of the westerlies that is accompanied by a poleward expansion of the tropical trade winds. Our results confirm that the Southern Ocean plays an important role for the marine oxygen supply: a strengthening of the southern westerlies, that leads to an increase of the water formation rates of the oxygen rich deep and intermediate water masses, can counteract part of the warming-induced decline in marine oxygen levels. The wind driven intensification of the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation drives an increase of the global oxygen supply. Furthermore the results show that the shift of the boundary between westerlies and trades results in an increase of subantarctic mode water and an anti-correlated decrease of deep water formation and reduces the oceanic oxygen supply. In addition we find that the increased meridional extension of the southern trade winds, results in a strengthening and southward shift of the subtropical wind stress curl. This alters the subtropical gyre circulation (intensification and southward shift) and with it decreases the water mass transport into the oxygen minimum zone. In a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, the poleward shift of the trade-to-westerlies boundary is as important for the future evolution of the suboxic volume as direct warming-induced changes.

CO2 Flux Estimation Errors Associated with Moist Atmospheric Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parazoo, N. C.; Denning, A. S.; Kawa, S. R.; Pawson, S.; Lokupitiya, R.

2012-01-01

Vertical transport by moist sub-grid scale processes such as deep convection is a well-known source of uncertainty in CO2 source/sink inversion. However, a dynamical link between vertical transport, satellite based retrievals of column mole fractions of CO2, and source/sink inversion has not yet been established. By using the same offline transport model with meteorological fields from slightly different data assimilation systems, we examine sensitivity of frontal CO2 transport and retrieved fluxes to different parameterizations of sub-grid vertical transport. We find that frontal transport feeds off background vertical CO2 gradients, which are modulated by sub-grid vertical transport. The implication for source/sink estimation is two-fold. First, CO2 variations contained in moist poleward moving air masses are systematically different from variations in dry equatorward moving air. Moist poleward transport is hidden from orbital sensors on satellites, causing a sampling bias, which leads directly to small but systematic flux retrieval errors in northern mid-latitudes. Second, differences in the representation of moist sub-grid vertical transport in GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorological fields cause differences in vertical gradients of CO2, which leads to systematic differences in moist poleward and dry equatorward CO2 transport and therefore the fraction of CO2 variations hidden in moist air from satellites. As a result, sampling biases are amplified and regional scale flux errors enhanced, most notably in Europe (0.43+/-0.35 PgC /yr). These results, cast from the perspective of moist frontal transport processes, support previous arguments that the vertical gradient of CO2 is a major source of uncertainty in source/sink inversion.

On the use of magnets to disrupt the physiological compass of birds.

PubMed

Wang, K; Mattern, E; Ritz, T

2006-10-04

Behavioral researchers have attached magnets to birds during orientation experiments, assuming that such magnets will disrupt their ability to obtain magnetic information. Here, we investigate the effect of an attached magnet on the ability to derive directional information from a radical-pair based compass mechanism. We outline in some detail the geometrical symmetries that would allow a bird to identify magnetic directions in a radical-pair based compass. We show that the artificial field through an attached magnet will quickly disrupt the birds' ability to distinguish pole-ward from equator-ward headings, but that much stronger fields are necessary to disrupt their ability to detect the magnetic axis. Together with estimates of the functional limits of a radical-pair based compass, our calculations suggest that artificial fields of comparable size to the geomagnetic field are not generally sufficient to render a radical-pair based compass non-functional.

The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts.

PubMed

Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D; Hay, Mark E; Poore, Alistair G B; Campbell, Alexandra H; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L; Booth, David J; Coleman, Melinda A; Feary, David A; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K

2014-08-22

Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to 'barrens' when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric fronts in current and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catto, J. L.; Nicholls, N.; Jakob, C.; Shelton, K. L.

2014-11-01

Atmospheric fronts are important for the day-to-day variability of weather in the midlatitudes. It is therefore vital to know how their distribution and frequency will change in a projected warmer climate. Here we apply an objective front identification method, based on a thermal front parameter, to 6-hourly data from models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The historical simulations are evaluated against ERA-Interim and found to produce a similar frequency of fronts and with similar front strength. The models show some biases in the location of the front frequency maxima. Future changes are estimated using the high emissions scenario simulations (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Projections show an overall decrease in front frequency in the Northern Hemisphere, with a poleward shift of the maxima of front frequency and a strong decrease at high latitudes where the temperature gradient is decreased. The Southern Hemisphere shows a poleward shift of the frequency maximum, consistent with previous storm track studies.

Effects of magnetospheric lobe cell convection on dayside upper thermospheric winds at high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Wang, W.; Wu, Q.; Knipp, D.; Kilcommons, L.; Brambles, O. J.; Liu, J.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J. G.; Häggström, I.

2016-08-01

This paper investigates a possible physical mechanism of the observed dayside high-latitude upper thermospheric wind using numerical simulations from the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (CMIT) model. Results show that the CMIT model is capable of reproducing the unexpected afternoon equatorward winds in the upper thermosphere observed by the High altitude Interferometer WIND observation (HIWIND) balloon. Models that lack adequate coupling produce poleward winds. The modeling study suggests that ion drag driven by magnetospheric lobe cell convection is another possible mechanism for turning the climatologically expected dayside poleward winds to the observed equatorward direction. The simulation results are validated by HIWIND, European Incoherent Scatter, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. The results suggest a strong momentum coupling between high-latitude ionospheric plasma circulation and thermospheric neutral winds in the summer hemisphere during positive IMF Bz periods, through the formation of magnetospheric lobe cell convection driven by persistent positive IMF By. The CMIT simulation adds important insight into the role of dayside coupling during intervals of otherwise quiet geomagnetic activity

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Seok-Woo; Han, Bo-Reum; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kim, Seo-Yeon; Park, Rokjin; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oman, Luke D.; Plummer, David A.; Pozzer, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

2018-05-01

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

BubR1- and Polo-Coated DNA Tethers Facilitate Poleward Segregation of Acentric Chromatids

PubMed Central

Royou, Anne; Gagou, Mary E.; Karess, Roger; Sullivan, William

2010-01-01

Summary The mechanisms that safeguard cells against chromosomal instability (CIN) are of great interest, as CIN contributes to tumorigenesis. To gain insight into these mechanisms, we studied the behavior of cells entering mitosis with damaged chromosomes. We used the endonuclease I-CreI to generate acentric chromosomes in Drosophila larvae. While I-CreI expression produces acentric chromosomes in the majority of neuronal stem cells, remarkably, it has no effect on adult survival. Our live studies reveal that acentric chromatids segregate efficiently to opposite poles. The acentric chromatid poleward movement is mediated through DNA tethers decorated with BubR1, Polo, INCENP, and Aurora-B. Reduced BubR1 or Polo function results in abnormal segregation of acentric chromatids, a decrease in acentric chromosome tethering, and a great reduction in adult survival. We propose that BubR1 and Polo facilitate the accurate segregation of acentric chromatids by maintaining the integrity of the tethers that connect acentric chromosomes to their centric partners. PMID:20141837

The Once and Future Battles of Thor and the Midgard Serpent (or the Southern Ocean's Role in Climate)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.

2017-12-01

Floats deployed by oceanographers are giving us all ringside seats to the epic battle between the wind and the deep ocean around Antarctica which will determine the rate of global atmospheric warming over the next century. The poleward-shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds has been shown to maintain the connection between the surface ocean and the atmosphere with the deep ocean even as the surface ocean warms. This "doorway" allows the vast deep ocean reservoir to play a significant role in the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Coupled climate and earth system models at low and high resolution all simulate poleward-shifted and intensified Southern Hemisphere surface westerly winds when subjected to an atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Comparisons of these simulations reveal how stratification, resolution and eddies affect the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases - and our collective fate.

Arctic Cut-Off High Drives the Poleward Shift of a New Greenland Melting Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, M.; Mote, T.; Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Jeyaratnam, J.; Booth, J. F.; Datta, R.; Briggs, K.

2016-01-01

Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Here, using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centered over the Arctic Ocean, was responsible for a poleward shift of runoff, albedo and surface temperature records over the Greenland during the summer of 2015. New records of monthly mean zonal winds at 500 hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5,700+/-50 m isohypse over the Arctic were associated with the formation and persistency of a cutoff high. The unprecedented (1948-2015) and sustained atmospheric conditions promoted enhanced runoff, increased the surface temperatures and decreased the albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south, where new melting records were set over the past decade. Subject terms: Earth sciences Atmospheric science Climate science

Developing a protocol for long-term population monitoring and habitat projections for a climate-sensitive sentinel species to track ecosystem change and species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beers, A.

2016-12-01

As a response to ongoing climate change, many species have started to shift their ranges poleward and toward higher elevations and mountain environments are predicted to experience especially rapid climatic changes. Because of this, there is likely a greater risk of habitat loss and local extinctions for species at high elevations compared to species at lower elevations. Among those potentially threatened habitat specialists is the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a climate sensitive indicator of climate change effects which may already be experiencing climate driven extirpations. Pikas are considered sentinels, indicators of greater ecosystem change. Changes in their distribution speaks to changes in availability of resources they require and shifts in the environment. Pika presence is closely tied to sub-surface ice features that act as a temperature buffer and water source. Those sub-surface ice features are critical in water cycling and long-term water storage and drive downstream hydrological and ecological processes. Understanding how this species responds to climate change therefore provides a model to inform landscape level conservation and management decisions. Pikas may be particularly vulnerable in parts of Colorado, including Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) and the Niwot Ridge LTER (NWT), where they may face population collapse as habitat suitability and connectivity both decline in response to various possible climate change scenarios, in large part because of cold stress and declining functional connectivity. Because of their potential role as an ecosystem indicator, their risk for decline, and how limitations to their survival likely vary across their range, management groups can use place based models of habitat suitability for pikas or other sentinel species in designing long term monitoring protocols to detect ecosystem responses to climate change. In this project we used remotely sensed data, occupancy surveys, and a random tessellation stratification to design a protocol for ROMO and NWT that best suits those environments. We also demonstrate the efficacy of habitat models based on remote sensing and their potential application toward tracking ecosystem change and species range shifts.

Vertical structure of tropospheric winds on gas giants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. K.; Dunkerton, T. J.

2017-04-01

Zonal mean zonal velocity profiles from cloud-tracking observations on Jupiter and Saturn are used to infer latitudinal variations of potential temperature consistent with a shear stable potential vorticity distribution. Immediately below the cloud tops, density stratification is weaker on the poleward and stronger on the equatorward flanks of midlatitude jets, while at greater depth the opposite relation holds. Thermal wind balance then yields the associated vertical shears of midlatitude jets in an altitude range bounded above by the cloud tops and bounded below by the level where the latitudinal gradient of static stability changes sign. The inferred vertical shear below the cloud tops is consistent with existing thermal profiling of the upper troposphere. The sense of the associated mean meridional circulation in the upper troposphere is discussed, and expected magnitudes are given based on existing estimates of the radiative timescale on each planet.

The landscape of Titan as witness to its climate evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Jeffrey M.; Howard, Alan D.; Morgan, Alexander M.

2014-09-01

We investigated the range of Titan climate evolution hypotheses regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We analyzed all available image data (principally synthetic aperture radar (SAR)) of Titan's landscape through the T-86 encounter, starting with focused examinations of terrains that carry the markers of climate evolution. Traditional geologic and geomorphic landscape analysis was used to perform morphometric characterization, establish time-stratigraphic relationships, and interpret local and regional geologic process-oriented evolutionary histories. We then assayed the distribution of terrains we identified with respect to both their latitudinal and altimetric occurrence. Our analysis of the terrain types and distributions was used to evaluate and rank the various climate evolution scenarios. We favor progressive hypotheses, which include a relatively brief period in which precipitation was able to affect geomorphic change in low latitudes at scales perceivable in SAR data, with subsequent gradual decline of precipitation intensity coupled with an increasing poleward restriction.

Greenland Ice Sheet Melt from MODIS and Associated Atmospheric Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Hall, Dorothy K.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Worthen, Denise L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2014-01-01

Daily June-July melt fraction variations over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) derived from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2000-2013) are associated with atmospheric blocking forming an omega-shape ridge over the GIS at 500hPa height (from NCEPNCAR). Blocking activity with a range of time scales, from synoptic waves breaking poleward ( 5 days) to full-fledged blocks (5 days), brings warm subtropical air masses over the GIS controlling daily surface temperatures and melt. The temperature anomaly of these subtropical air mass intrusions is also important for melting. Based on the largest MODIS melt years (2002 and 2012), the area-average temperature anomaly of 2 standard deviations above the 14-year June-July mean, results in a melt fraction of 40 or more. Summer 2007 had the most blocking days, however atmospheric temperature anomalies were too small to instigate extreme melting.

Composition measurements of the topside ionosphere using a magnetic mass spectrometer, ion mass spectrometer on ISIS-2 spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, J. H.

1975-01-01

The ion mass spectrometer (IMS) on the ISIS-II satellite is described; it measures the composition and distribution of positive ions in the earth's ionosphere in the mass range of 1 to 64 atomic mass units. Significant data were received which show a wide variation in ion composition at night near the equator and in the daytime poleward of the plasmapause. It was found that these data enable further study of the polar wind and that the experiment produced timely data during the August, 1972 magnetic storm to show the development of a unique ionosphere above the plasmapause during the period of the storm. The scientific objectives and results of the experiment, the technical description of the instrument, a bibliography with sample papers attached, and a summary of recommendations for further study are presented.

Revisiting the relationship between jet position, forced response, and annular mode variability in the southern midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Isla R.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2016-03-01

Climate models exhibit a wide range in latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet. Previous work has demonstrated, in the annual mean, that models with lower latitude jets, exhibit greater poleward jet shifts under climate forcings. It has been argued that this behavior is due to stronger eddy/mean flow feedbacks in models with lower latitude jets, as inferred from the timescale of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Here we revisit this question with a focus on seasonality. Using a larger set of models and forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5, we find that the jet position/jet shift relationship is strong in winter but insignificant in summer, whereas the model spread in SAM timescales arises primarily in summer, with winter timescales similar across models. The results, therefore, question previous interpretations and motivate an improved understanding of the spread in model behavior.

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

2017-10-01

The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Doney, Scott C; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Duffy, J Emmett; Barry, James P; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A; Galindo, Heather M; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M; Hollowed, Anne B; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N; Sydeman, William J; Talley, Lynne D

2012-01-01

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge.

PubMed

Cavin, Liam; Jump, Alistair S

2017-01-01

Biogeographical and ecological theory suggests that species distributions should be driven to higher altitudes and latitudes as global temperatures rise. Such changes occur as growth improves at the poleward edge of a species distribution and declines at the range edge in the opposite or equatorial direction, mirrored by changes in the establishment of new individuals. A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that such processes are underway for a wide variety of species. Case studies from populations at the equatorial range edge of a variety of woody species have led us to understand that widespread growth decline and distributional shifts are underway. However, in apparent contrast, other studies report high productivity and reproduction in some range edge populations. We sought to assess temporal trends in the growth of the widespread European beech tree (Fagus sylvatica) across its latitudinal range. We explored the stability of populations to major drought events and the implications for predicted widespread growth decline at its equatorial range edge. In contrast to expectations, we found greatest sensitivity and low resistance to drought in the core of the species range, whilst dry range edge populations showed particularly high resistance to drought and little evidence of drought-linked growth decline. We hypothesize that this high range edge resistance to drought is driven primarily by local environmental factors that allow relict populations to persist despite regionally unfavourable climate. The persistence of such populations demonstrates that range-edge decline is not ubiquitous and is likely to be driven by declining population density at the landscape scale rather than sudden and widespread range retraction. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

HIGH-RESOLUTION CALCULATION OF THE SOLAR GLOBAL CONVECTION WITH THE REDUCED SPEED OF SOUND TECHNIQUE. II. NEAR SURFACE SHEAR LAYER WITH THE ROTATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hotta, H.; Rempel, M.; Yokoyama, T., E-mail: hotta@ucar.edu

We present a high-resolution, highly stratified numerical simulation of rotating thermal convection in a spherical shell. Our aim is to study in detail the processes that can maintain a near surface shear layer (NSSL) as inferred from helioseismology. Using the reduced speed of sound technique, we can extend our global convection simulation to 0.99 R {sub ☉} and include, near the top of our domain, small-scale convection with short timescales that is only weakly influenced by rotation. We find the formation of an NSSL preferentially in high latitudes in the depth range of r = 0.95-0.975 R {sub ☉}. Themore » maintenance mechanisms are summarized as follows. Convection under the weak influence of rotation leads to Reynolds stresses that transport angular momentum radially inward in all latitudes. This leads to the formation of a strong poleward-directed meridional flow and an NSSL, which is balanced in the meridional plane by forces resulting from the 〈v{sub r}{sup ′}v{sub θ}{sup ′}〉 correlation of turbulent velocities. The origin of the required correlations depends to some degree on latitude. In high latitudes, a positive correlation 〈v{sub r}{sup ′}v{sub θ}{sup ′}〉 is induced in the NSSL by the poleward meridional flow whose amplitude increases with the radius, while a negative correlation is generated by the Coriolis force in bulk of the convection zone. In low latitudes, a positive correlation 〈v{sub r}{sup ′}v{sub θ}{sup ′}〉 results from rotationally aligned convection cells ({sup b}anana cells{sup )}. The force caused by these Reynolds stresses is in balance with the Coriolis force in the NSSL.« less

Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota.

PubMed

Constable, Andrew J; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P; Arrigo, Kevin R; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnes, David K A; Bindoff, Nathaniel L; Boyd, Philip W; Brandt, Angelika; Costa, Daniel P; Davidson, Andrew T; Ducklow, Hugh W; Emmerson, Louise; Fukuchi, Mitsuo; Gutt, Julian; Hindell, Mark A; Hofmann, Eileen E; Hosie, Graham W; Iida, Takahiro; Jacob, Sarah; Johnston, Nadine M; Kawaguchi, So; Kokubun, Nobuo; Koubbi, Philippe; Lea, Mary-Anne; Makhado, Azwianewi; Massom, Rob A; Meiners, Klaus; Meredith, Michael P; Murphy, Eugene J; Nicol, Stephen; Reid, Keith; Richerson, Kate; Riddle, Martin J; Rintoul, Stephen R; Smith, Walker O; Southwell, Colin; Stark, Jonathon S; Sumner, Michael; Swadling, Kerrie M; Takahashi, Kunio T; Trathan, Phil N; Welsford, Dirk C; Weimerskirch, Henri; Westwood, Karen J; Wienecke, Barbara C; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Wright, Simon W; Xavier, Jose C; Ziegler, Philippe

2014-10-01

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Titus, James G.

2002-01-01

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

Electric Field Observations of Plasma Convection, Shear, Alfven Waves, and other Phenomena Observed on Sounding Rockets in the Cusp and Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfaff, R. F.

2009-01-01

On December 14,2002, a NASA Black Brant X sounding rocket was launched equatorward from Ny Alesund, Spitzbergen (79 N) into the dayside cusp and subsequently cut across the open/closed field line boundary, reaching an apogee of771 km. The launch occurred during Bz negative conditions with strong By negative that was changing during the flight. SuperDarn (CUTLASS) radar and subsequent model patterns reveal a strong westward/poleward convection, indicating that the rocket traversed a rotational reversal in the afternoon merging cell. The payload returned DC electric and magnetic fields, plasma waves, energetic particle, suprathermal electron and ion, and thermal plasma data. We provide an overview of the main observations and focus on the DC electric field results, comparing the measured E x B plasma drifts in detail with the CUTLASS radar observations of plasma drifts gathered simultaneously in the same volume. The in situ DC electric fields reveal steady poleward flows within the cusp with strong shears at the interface of the closed/open field lines and within the boundary layer. We use the observations to discuss ionospheric signatures of the open/closed character of the cusp/low latitude boundary layer as a function of the IMF. The electric field and plasma density data also reveal the presence of very strong plasma irregularities with a large range of scales (10 m to 10 km) that exist within the open field line cusp region yet disappear when the payload was equatorward of the cusp on closed field lines. These intense low frequency wave observations are consistent with strong scintillations observed on the ground at Ny Alesund during the flight. We present detailed wave characteristics and discuss them in terms of Alfven waves and static irregularities that pervade the cusp region at all altitudes.

Observations of subauroral ionospheric dynamics during SED plume passage at Millstone Hill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Erickson, P. J.; Coster, A. J.

2017-12-01

Storm enhanced density (SED) is a characteristic ionospheric storm time structure, with a significant plasma density enhancement in a narrow zone. SED structures often (but not always) span the continental US with a base in the US northeast at the afternoon and dusk sector, extending westward or northwest into the high latitude dayside cusp region. It is a typical and repeatable space weather phenomenon occurring during the main phase of magnetic storms with intensity ranging from active to disturbed levels. Observations of stormtime ionospheric density enhancement at subauroral latitudes have a long history, and were termed the 'dusk effect' until relatively recently, when dense networks of GNSS receivers have allowed us to view this structure with much finer spatial and temporal resolution. The formation of a SED plume is a topic under intensive community investigation, but in general it is believed that stormtime ionospheric dynamics and processes within the coupling magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system are responsible. For instance, poleward and sunward plasma drifts at the edge of the expanded dusk sector high-latitude convection can be important. Subauroral polarization stream (SAPS) are often observed at the poleward edge of the SED plume where ionospheric conductivity is low. SAPS is a huge westward ion flow that can convect ionospheric plasma from the afternoon or evening sector where solar photoionization production is waning, creating low density or density troughs. Stormtime penetration electric fields also exist, creating enhanced low and mid latitude upward ion drifts that move ionospheric plasma upward from the low altitude region where they are produced. This provides another important ionization source to contribute to maintaining the SED plume. This paper will provide analysis of the relative strength of these factors by using joint datasets of current geospace storm events obtained with the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar, GNSS TEC maps, and DMSP in situ measurements.

Tertiary climates and floristic relationships at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolfe, J.A.

1980-01-01

During the Paleocene and Eocene, climates were characterized by a low mean annual range of temperature (a maximum of 10-15??C), a moderate to high mean annual temperature (10-20??C), and abundant precipitation; strong broad-leaved evergreen vegetation extended to almost lat. 60??N during the Paleocene and to well above 61??N during the Eocene. Poleward of the broad-leaved evergreen forests were forests that were broad-leaved deciduous; these deciduous forests, however, were unlike extant broad-leaved deciduous forests in general floristic composition and physiognomy. Coniferous forests probably occupied the northernmost latitudes. At the end of the Eocene, a major climatic deterioration resulted in a high (> 30??C) mean annual range of temperature and a low mean annual temperature (< 10??C). Vegetation represented temperate broad-leaved deciduous and coniferous forests. The Oligocene and Neogene climatic trends represent a decrease in both mean annual range of temperature and mean annual temperature. Tundra vegetation did not appear until late in the Neogene. The present distribution of broad-leaved evergreens concomitant with the principles of plant physiology indicates that present winter light conditions at high latitudes could not support broad-leaved evergreen forest. A possible solution to the problem is to increase winter light by lessening the inclination of the earth's rotational axis. ?? 1980.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Péron, Clara; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André

2012-07-07

Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Péron, Clara; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André

2012-01-01

Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies. PMID:22378808

Below-ground biotic interactions moderated the postglacial range dynamics of trees.

PubMed

Pither, Jason; Pickles, Brian J; Simard, Suzanne W; Ordonez, Alejandro; Williams, John W

2018-05-17

Tree range shifts during geohistorical global change events provide a useful real-world model for how future changes in forest biomes may proceed. In North America, during the last deglaciation, the distributions of tree taxa varied significantly as regards the rate and direction of their responses for reasons that remain unclear. Local-scale processes such as establishment, growth, and resilience to environmental stress ultimately influence range dynamics. Despite the fact that interactions between trees and soil biota are known to influence local-scale processes profoundly, evidence linking below-ground interactions to distribution dynamics remains scarce. We evaluated climate velocity and plant traits related to dispersal, environmental tolerance and below-ground symbioses, as potential predictors of the geohistorical rates of expansion and contraction of the core distributions of tree genera between 16 and 7 ka bp. The receptivity of host genera towards ectomycorrhizal fungi was strongly supported as a positive predictor of poleward rates of distribution expansion, and seed mass was supported as a negative predictor. Climate velocity gained support as a positive predictor of rates of distribution contraction, but not expansion. Our findings indicate that understanding how tree distributions, and thus forest ecosystems, respond to climate change requires the simultaneous consideration of traits, biotic interactions and abiotic forcing. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Moisture and wave-mean flow interactions in the general circulation of Earth's atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Ray

Baroclinic eddies play an important role in shaping the midlatitude climate and its variability. They are the dominant means by which heat, momentum, and water vapor are transported in the atmosphere, but their turbulent nature makes it challenging to grasp their aggregate effect on the mean circulation. Wave-mean flow diagnostics provide an effective means for understanding the interactions between eddies and the mean circulation. These diagnostics are derived by dynamically motivated averaging of the equations of motion, which exposes the total explicit eddy effect on the mean circulation tendency. Most of the classic formulations of these diagnostics have been limited by the fact that they do not account for the eddy flux of water vapor, which can drive circulation through latent heat released from condensation. In the first part of this thesis, a moist isentropic generalization of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux diagnostic is developed. Moist isentropes are often not invertible with height, which prevents the standard techniques used to derive the dry diagnostic from being applied in the moist case. This issue is resolved by using a conditional-averaging approach to define a weak coordinate transformation. The primitive equations, EP flux, and EP theorem are derived in generality for non- invertible coordinates, without assumptions of quasi-geostrophy or small wave-amplitude. It is shown that, in the reanalysis climatology, the moist EP flux is twice as strong as the dry EP flux and has a greater equatorward extent. Physically, the increase in momentum exchange is tied to an enhancement of the form drag associated with the horizontal structure of midlatitude eddies, where the poleward flow of moist air is located in regions of strong eastward pressure gradients. The second part of this thesis studies the effect of latent heating on the mean flow adjustment in idealized baroclinic life cycles. The life cycles are simulated in an idealized moist general circulation model (GCM) with no convective parameterizations and diabatic heating is due entirely to the latent heat released from large-scale condensation. A series of life cycle simulations are run varying only the initially prescribed value of the relative humidity. It is shown that increasing relative humidity acts to decrease the baroclinic shear of the adjusting zonal jet. By solving a moist elliptic equation for the Eulerian-mean circulation forced by the eddy fluxes, it is shown that the eddy moisture flux drives an indirect Eulerian circulation on the equatorward flank of the jet. This in turn increases the strength and equatorward extent of the developing surface westerlies. The reduction of baroclinicity is consistent with the earlier idea that moisture fluxes increase the EP flux and form drag associated with baroclinic eddies. The final topic of this thesis is about the extratropical internal variability of the atmosphere. The annular mode (AM) has long been considered the dominant mode of atmospheric variability driven by midlatitude storms. It describes a north-south vacillation of the eddy-driven jet on intraseasonal timescales which are considerably longer than the life cycle of typical synoptic storms. This low-frequency variability of the AM is thought to be supported by a mean-eddy feedback, in which a poleward shift of the jet is supported by a poleward shift of the baroclinic zone. However, it is shown that the atmospheric energy transport and isentropic circulation shift equatorward in the monthly AM composites. This shift is mainly the result of a poleward shift of the Ferrel cell. An alternative mean-eddy feedback mechanism based on the idea of the jet acting as a mixing barrier is proposed as an explanation for the small response of the eddy energy flux.

Woody plant encroachment of grasslands: a comparison of terrestrial and wetland settings.

PubMed

Saintilan, Neil; Rogers, Kerrylee

2015-02-01

A global trend of woody plant encroachment of terrestrial grasslands is co-incident with woody plant encroachment of wetland in freshwater and saline intertidal settings. There are several arguments for considering tree encroachment of wetlands in the context of woody shrub encroachment of grassland biomes. In both cases, delimitation of woody shrubs at regional scales is set by temperature thresholds for poleward extent, and by aridity within temperature limits. Latitudinal expansion has been observed for terrestrial woody shrubs and mangroves, following recent warming, but most expansion and thickening has been due to the occupation of previously water-limited grassland/saltmarsh environments. Increases in atmospheric CO₂, may facilitate the recruitment of trees in terrestrial and wetland settings. Improved water relations, a mechanism that would predict higher soil moisture in grasslands and saltmarshes, and also an enhanced capacity to survive arid conditions, reinforces local mechanisms of change. The expansion of woody shrubs and mangroves provides a negative feedback on elevated atmospheric CO₂ by increasing carbon sequestration in grassland and saltmarsh, and is a significant carbon sink globally. These broad-scale vegetation shifts may represent a new stable state, reinforced by positive feedbacks between global change drivers and endogenic mechanisms of persistence in the landscape.

Contributions of divergent and nondivergent winds to the kinetic energy balance of a severe storm environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Browning, P. A.; Fuelberg, H. E.

1983-01-01

Divergent and rotational components of the synoptic scale kinetic energy balance are presented using rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals from the Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE 4). Two intense thunderstorm complexes occurred during the period. Energy budgets are described for the entire computational region and for limited volumes that enclose and move with the convection. Although small in magnitude, the divergent wind component played an important role in the cross contour generation and horizontal flux divergence of kinetic energy. The importance of V sub D appears directly to the presence and intensity of convection within the area. Although K sub D usually comprised less than 10 percent of the total kinetic energy content within the storm environment, as much as 87 percent of the total horizontal flux divergence and 68 percent of the total cross contour generation was due to the divergent component in the upper atmosphere. Generation of kinetic energy by the divergent component appears to be a major factor in the creation of an upper level wind maximum on the poleward side of one of the complexes. A random error analysis is presented to assess confidence limits in the various energy parameters.

The Deep Space Gateway Lightning Mapper (DLM) — Monitoring Global Change and Thunderstorm Processes through Observations of Earth's High-Latitude Lightning from Cis-Lunar Orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, T. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Cecil, D. J.; Christian, H. J.; Gatlin, P. N.; Goodman, S. J.; Koshak, W. J.; Petersen, W. A.; Quick, M.; Schultz, C. J.; Tatum, P. F.

2018-02-01

We propose the Deep Space Gateway Lightning Mapper (DLM) instrument. The primary goal of the DLM is to optically monitor Earth's high-latitude (50° and poleward) total lightning not observed by current and planned spaceborne lightning mappers.

Policy and strategy considerations for assisted migration on USDA Forest Service lands

Treesearch

Randy Johnson; Sandy Boyce; Leslie Brandt; Vicky Erickson; Louis Iverson; Greg Kujawa; Borys Tkacz

2013-01-01

Due to increased temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns associated with climate change, bioclimatic zones that provide habitat for many species are expected to expand, contract, disappear, shift poleward, or move towards higher elevations (WGA 2008). Species will respond to changing climate and disturbance regimes individually, with some species moving...

Upward ant distribution shift corresponds with minimum, not maximum, temperature tolerance

Treesearch

Robert J. Warren; Lacy Chick

2013-01-01

Rapid climate change may prompt species distribution shifts upward and poleward, but species movement in itself is not sufficient to establish climate causation. Other dynamics, such as disturbance history, may prompt species distribution shifts resembling those expected from rapid climate change. Links between species distributions, regional climate trends and...

Wind-Forced Modeling Studies of Currents, Meanders, Eddies, and Filaments of the Canary Current System

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-06-01

infra-red images from NOAA7 and NOAA9 and numerous in- situ measurements reveal the existence of a surface poleward flow off the northern coast of...dinamica das Aguas costeiras de Portugal. Dissertacao apresentada a Universidade de Lisboa para obtencao do grau de Doutor em Fisica, especializacao

CMIP5 models' shortwave cloud radiative response and climate sensitivity linked to the climatological Hadley cell extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipat, Bernard R.; Tselioudis, George; Grise, Kevin M.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2017-06-01

This study analyzes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model output to examine the covariability of interannual Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) edge latitude shifts and shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE). In control climate runs, during years when the HC edge is anomalously poleward, most models substantially reduce the shortwave radiation reflected by clouds in the lower midlatitude region (LML; ˜28°S-˜48°S), although no such reduction is seen in observations. These biases in HC-SWCRE covariability are linked to biases in the climatological HC extent. Notably, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents have weaker climatological LML subsidence and exhibit larger increases in LML subsidence with poleward HC edge expansion. This behavior, based on control climate interannual variability, has important implications for the CO2-forced model response. In 4×CO2-forced runs, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents produce stronger SW cloud radiative warming in the LML region and tend to have larger climate sensitivity values than models with more realistic climatological HC extents.

The Sun's Meridional Circulation - not so Deep

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hathaway, David H.

2011-05-01

The Sun's global meridional circulation is evident as a slow poleward flow at its surface. This flow is observed to carry magnetic elements poleward - producing the Sun's polar magnetic fields as a key part of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Flux Transport Dynamo models for the sunspot cycle are predicated on the belief that this surface flow is part of a circulation which sinks inward at the poles and returns to the equator in the bottom half of the convection zone - at depths between 100 and 200 Mm. Here I use the advection of the supergranule cells by the meridional flow to map the flow velocity in latitude and depth. My measurements show that the equatorward return flow begins at a depth of only 35 Mm - the base of the Sun's surface shear layer. This is the first clear (10 sigma) detection of the meridional return flow. While the shallow depth of the return flow indicates a false foundation for Flux Transport Dynamo models it helps to explain the different meridional flow rates seen for different features and provides a mechanism for selecting the characteristic size of supergranules.

Tidal and near-inertial peak variations around the diurnal critical latitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Haren, Hans

2005-12-01

Spectra from historic long-term open-ocean moored current meter data between latitudes 0° < |$\\varphi$| < 45° reveal a significant drop in semidiurnal tidal band (D2) energy by ~50% at |$\\varphi$| ~ 25-27°, whilst the peak near the local inertial frequency f is increased by a factor of ~10 up to the level of D2-energy at |$\\varphi$| ~ 28-30°, where f coincides with diurnal frequencies. The increase in f-energy is accompanied by a red-shift of the peak frequency to 0.97 +/- 0.01f, or a poleward spreading of enhanced energy. This contrasts with more common blue-shift. The enhancement may be the result of sub-harmonic instability, as supported by sparse significant bicoherence at half-D2, although i) systematic enhancement of diurnal tidal frequencies, notably M1, was not observed, ii) the latitudes of low D2-energy and high f-energy do not coincide. This may be due to a mix of coupled and independent waves, whilst the poleward trapping of sub-f energy suggests non-traditional effects.

Land-falling typhoons are controlled by the meridional oscillation of the Kuroshio Extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shihming; Oey, Lie-Yauw

2018-06-01

Low-frequency variations of typhoon paths are often attributed to changes in the North Pacific subtropical high and monsoon through influences on the steering wind. Evidence indicates however a strong imprint of the Kuroshio on the atmosphere. Here we show that the meridional oscillation of sea surface temperature (SST) front over the Kuroshio Extension east of Japan significantly correlates with the number of land-falling typhoons along East Asia from June to October, accounting for 70% of the low-frequency variance since 1980. We used observations and a simple model to show that when the SST front shifts poleward (equatorward), SST gradient south of the current and westerly tropospheric wind weaken (strengthen), steering more typhoons to veer toward (away from) the East Asian continent. Our analysis also indicates that long-term weakening of SST gradient and westerly wind appears to be concomitant with poleward shifting of the Kuroshio, attributed to global warming in some studies, and suggests the potential for more land-falling typhoons in East Asia in the coming decades.

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological impacts.

The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology

PubMed Central

Waldock, Joanna; Chandra, Nastassya L; Lelieveld, Jos; Proestos, Yiannis; Michael, Edwin; Christophides, George; Parham, Paul E

2013-01-01

Aedes albopictus is a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses in the field, along with around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions. As an invasive mosquito species, Ae. albopictus has been expanding in geographical range over the past 20 years, although the poleward extent of mosquito populations is limited by winter temperatures. Nonetheless, population densities depend on environmental conditions and since global climate change projections indicate increasing temperatures and altered patterns of rainfall, geographic distributions of previously tropical mosquito species may change. Although mathematical models can provide explanatory insight into observed patterns of disease prevalence in terms of epidemiological and entomological processes, understanding how environmental variables affect transmission is possible only with reliable model parameterisation, which, in turn, is obtained only through a thorough understanding of the relationship between mosquito biology and environmental variables. Thus, in order to assess the impact of climate change on mosquito population distribution and regions threatened by vector-borne disease, a detailed understanding (through a synthesis of current knowledge) of the relationship between climate, mosquito biology, and disease transmission is required, but this process has not yet been undertaken for Ae. albopictus. In this review, the impact of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity on Ae. albopictus development and survival are considered. Existing Ae. albopictus populations across Europe are mapped with current climatic conditions, considering whether estimates of climatic cutoffs for Ae. albopictus are accurate, and suggesting that environmental thresholds must be calibrated according to the scale and resolution of climate model outputs and mosquito presence data. PMID:23916332

Surface-Atmosphere Connections on Titan: A New Window into Terrestrial Hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean

This dissertation investigates the coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and surface processes on Titan, with a particular focus on methane precipitation and its influence on surface geomorphology and hydrology. As the only body in the Solar System with an active hydrologic cycle other than Earth, Titan presents a valuable laboratory for studying principles of hydroclimate on terrestrial planets. Idealized general circulation models (GCMs) are used here to test hypotheses regarding Titan's surface-atmosphere connections. First, an Earth-like GCM simulated over a range of rotation rates is used to evaluate the effect of rotation rate on seasonal monsoon behavior. Slower rotation rates result in poleward migration of summer rain, indicating a large-scale atmospheric control on Titan's observed dichotomy of dry low latitudes and moist high latitudes. Second, a Titan GCM benchmarked against observations is used to analyze the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme methane rainstorms as simulated by the model. Regional patterns in these extreme events correlate well with observed geomorphic features, with the most extreme rainstorms occurring in mid-latitude regions associated with high alluvial fan concentrations. Finally, a planetary surface hydrology scheme is developed and incorporated into a Titan GCM to evaluate the roles of surface flow, subsurface flow, infiltration, and groundmethane evaporation in Titan's climate. The model reproduces Titan's observed surface liquid and cloud distributions, and reaches an equilibrium state with limited interhemispheric transport where atmospheric transport is approximately balanced by subsurface transport. The equilibrium state suggests that Titan's current hemispheric surface liquid asymmetry, favoring methane accumulation in the north, is stable in the modern climate.

Postglacial expansion pathways of red mangrove, Rhizophora mangle, in the Caribbean Basin and Florida.

PubMed

Kennedy, John Paul; Pil, Maria W; Proffitt, C Edward; Boeger, Walter A; Stanford, Alice M; Devlin, Donna J

2016-02-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a period of massive range contraction. Post-LGM, water-dispersed coastal species, including the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle), expanded poleward as propagules were transported by ocean currents. We assessed postglacial marine expansion pathways for R. mangle within the Caribbean Basin and Florida. Six microsatellite loci were used to genotype 237 individuals from nine R. mangle populations in the Caribbean, Florida, and Northwest Africa. We evaluated genetic variation, population structure, gene flow along alternative post-LGM expansion pathways to Florida, and potential long-distance dispersal (LDD) from West Africa to Caribbean islands. These R. mangle populations had substantial genetic structure (FST = 0.37, P < 0.0001) with three discrete population clusters (Caribbean mainland, Caribbean islands, and Florida). Genetic connectivity along the mainland pathway (Caribbean mainland to Florida) vs. limited gene dispersal along the Antilles Island pathway (Caribbean islands to Florida) supported Florida recolonization from Caribbean mainland sources. Genetic similarity of Northwest Africa and two Caribbean islands provided evidence for trans-Atlantic LDD. We did not find a pattern of decreasing genetic diversity with latitude. We outline a complex expansion history for R. mangle, with discrete pathways of recolonization for Florida and Caribbean islands. Contrary to expectation, connectivity to putative Caribbean mainland refugial populations via ocean currents, and not latitude, appears to dictate genetic diversity within Caribbean island and Florida R. mangle. These findings provide a framework for further investigation of additional water-dispersed neotropical species, and insights for management initiatives. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Particle Detectors and Data Analysis for Cusp Transient Features Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharber, James R.

1999-01-01

On December 3, 1997, a rocket payload (36.152) was launched from N(sub y) Alesund into the dark cusp at 0906:00 U (1206:00 LT) during an interval of southward B(sub z) and positive B(sub y). Launch occurred during a time interval of northeastward moving auroral forms observed between 0845 and 0945 UT by ground-based meridian scanning photometers. Ground photometric measurements during the flight show that the payload passed over the poleward portion of the most intense 6300 A emissions of the dayside cusp/cleft region. Electrons of energy up to a few hundred eV were detected immediately upon instrument turn-on at an altitude of 205 km and throughout the flight until the payload reached an altitude of -197 km on the downleg. Electron spectra were either quasithermal with peak energies -100 eV or showed evidence of acceleration along the magnetic field line by potentials of 100-200 V. Precipitating ions were observed throughout much of the flight. Their spectra were broadly peaked in energy with the peak energy decreasing from -500 eV to -250 eV as the payload flew approximately westward over the dayside precipitation region. Structure (spatial or temporal intensity variation) was observed between T + 180 s and T + -400 s. At the rocket altitudes (<450 km) the ions were observed to be precipitating. During the flight, the DMSP F-13 satellite passed through the all-sky imager field-of-view just poleward of the brightest dayside emissions enabling the identification of plasma sheet and boundary layer regions along the orbit. We thus conclude that particle fluxes detected by the rocket flight were either cusp plasma or boundary layer/mantle plasma just poleward of the dayside cusp/cleft. A paper describing the fields and plasmas observed during the flight is now being prepared for publication.

Particle Detectors and Data Analysis for Cusp Transient Features Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharber, James R.

1998-01-01

On December 3, 1997, a rocket payload (36.152) was launched from Ny Alesund into the dark cusp at 0906:00 U (1206:00 LT) during an interval of southward B(sub Z), and positive B(sub y). Launch occurred during a time interval of northeastward moving auroral forms observed between 0845 and 0945 UT by ground-based meridian scanning photometers. Ground photometric measurements during the flight show that the payload passed over the poleward portion of the most intense 6300 A emissions of the dayside cusp/cleft region. Electrons of energy up to a few hundred eV were detected immediately upon instrument turn-on at an altitude of 205 km and throughout the flight until the payload reached an altitude of approximately 197 km on the downleg. Electron spectra were either quasithermal with peak energies approximately 100 eV or showed evidence of acceleration along the magnetic field line by potentials of 100-200 V. Precipitating ions were observed throughout much of the flight. Their spectra were broadly peaked in energy with the peak energy decreasing from approximately 500 eV to approximately 250 eV as the payload flew approximately westward over the dayside precipitationregion. Structure(spatial or temporal intensity variation) was observed between T + 180 s and T + approximately 400 s. At the rocket altitudes(less than 450km) the ions were observed to be precipitating. During the flight, the DMSPF-13 satellite passed through the all-sky imager field-of-view just poleward of the brightest dayside emissions enabling the identification of plasma sheet and boundary layer regions along the orbit. We thus conclude that particle fluxes detected by the rocket flight were either cusp plasma or boundary layer/mantle plasmajust poleward of the dayside cusp/cleft. Further investigation of the particle characteristics and their relationship to ionospheric convection patterns is continuing.

Auroral boundary movement rates during substorm onsets and their correspondence to solar wind and the AL index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andriyas, Tushar

2016-08-01

A statistical analysis of the equatorward and poleward auroral boundary movement during substorm onsets, the related solar wind activity, GOES 8 and 10 magnetic field, and the westward auroral electrojet (AL) index is undertaken, during the years 2000-2002. Auroral boundary data were obtained from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). These boundaries were derived using auroral images from the IMAGE satellite. The timing of the onsets was derived from the Frey et al. (2004) database. Data were also classified based on the peak AL around the onset and the onset latitude, in order to analyze the differences, if any, in the rates of movement. It was found that the absolute ratio of the rate of movement of the mean poleward and equatorward boundaries was slower than the rate of mean movement around the midnight sector. The stronger the onset (in terms of the peak AL around the onset) was, the faster the rate of movement for both the boundaries. This implies that the stronger the AL signature around the onset, the weaker the magnetic field was prior to the onset and the faster it increased after the onset at GOES 8 and 10 locations. The stronger the AL signature, the thicker the latitudinal width of the aurora was, prior to the onset and higher was the increase in the width after the onset, due to large poleward and average equatorward expansion. Magnetotail field line stretching and relaxation rates as measured by GOES were also found to lie in the same order of magnitude. It is therefore concluded that the rates of latitudinal descent prior to a substorm onset and ascent after the onset, of the mean auroral boundaries, corresponds to the rate at which the tail field lines stretch and relax before and after the onset, respectively.

Poleward Tropical Moisture Transport and its Link to Four Sequential Extreme Weather Events over North America in October 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Cordeira, J. M.; Archambault, H. M.; Moore, B. J.

2014-12-01

A case of four sequentially linked extreme weather events (EWEs) during 22 - 31 October 2007 which included wildfires in southern California, cold surges in northern and eastern Mexico, widespread heavy rain in the eastern United Sates, and heavy rains in southern Mexico is presented. These EWEs were preceded by a rapid dynamically driven rapid amplification of the upper-level flow across the North Pacific and North America associated with the formation of a large-amplitude Rossby wave train (RWT) through downstream baroclinic development involving multiple tropical and polar disturbance interactions with the North Pacific jet stream. The primary contributors to the formation of the large-amplitude RWT were two sequential upper-level polar disturbances, a diabatic Rossby vortex, western North Pacific TC Kajiki, and migratory extratropical cyclones (ECs). Deep subtropical and tropical moisture plumes resembling "atmospheric rivers" drawn poleward along warm conveyor belts into the warm sectors of these ECs played a critical role in further amplifying the downstream upper-level ridges based on an Eulerian analysis of negative potential vorticity advection by the irrotational wind and a Lagrangian trajectory analysis of tropical and subtropical moisture sources. In particular, these atmospheric rivers extending poleward from TC Kajiki and from the subtropical eastern North Pacific into the warm sectors of polar disturbance-generated ECs over the western and eastern North Pacific, respectively, bolstered latent heat release and ridge building and contributed to additional upper-level flow amplification. The EWEs occurred subsequent to anticyclonic wave breaking over western North America and the concomitant downstream formation of a meridionally elongated potential vorticity streamer over the central United States. The resulting high-amplitude flow pattern over North America favored the formation of the aforementioned EWEs by promoting an extensive meridional exchange of air masses from high and low latitudes.

Effect of boreal spring precipitation anomaly pattern change in the late 1990s over tropical Pacific on the atmospheric teleconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yuanyuan; Wen, Zhiping; Chen, Ruidan; Li, Xiuzhen; Yang, Xiu-Qun

2018-02-01

Observational evidence showed that the leading mode of precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific during boreal spring experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s, characterized by a precipitation pattern shift from an eastern Pacific (EP) type to a central Pacific (CP) type. The distinct impacts of such a precipitation pattern shift on the extratropical atmospheric teleconnection were examined. An apparent poleward teleconnection extending from the tropics to the North Atlantic region was observed after 1998, while, there was no significant teleconnection before 1998. To understand why only the CP-type precipitation mode is associated with a striking atmospheric teleconnection after 1998, diagnostic analyses with the Eliassen-Palm flux and Rossby wave source (RWS) based on the barotropic vorticity equation were performed. The results show that for the EP-type precipitation mode, no significant RWS anomalies appeared over the subtropical Pacific due to the opposite effect of the vortex stretching and absolute vorticity advection processes. For the CP-type precipitation mode, however, there are both significant vorticity forcing source over the subtropical CP and clear poleward-propagation of Rossby wave. The spatial distribution of the CP-type precipitation pattern tends to excite a conspicuous anomalous southerly and a well-organized negative vorticity center over the subtropical CP where both the mean absolute vorticity gradient and mean divergence flow are large, hence, the interaction between the heating-induced anomalous circulation and the basic state made the generation of Rossby waves conceivable and effective. Such corresponding teleconnection responses to the prescribed heating were also examined by using a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). It turned out that significant poleward teleconnection pattern is only caused by the CP-type precipitation mode, rather than by the EP-type precipitation mode. Further sensitive experiments demonstrated that the change in spring basic state before and after 1998 played a relatively minor role in exciting such a teleconnection pattern, when compared with the tropical precipitation anomaly pattern change.

Babcock Redux: An Amendment of Babcock's Schematic of the Sun's Magnetic Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Ronald L.; Cirtain, Jonathan W.; Sterling, Alphonse C.

2017-08-01

We amend Babcock's original scenario for the global dynamo process that sustains the Sun's 22-year magnetic cycle. The amended scenario fits post-Babcock observed features of the magnetic activity cycle and convection zone, and is based on ideas of Spruit & Roberts (1983, Nature, 304, 401) about magnetic flux tubes in the convection zone. A sequence of four schematic cartoons lays out the proposed evolution of the global configuration of the magnetic field above, in, and at the bottom of the convection zone through sunspot Cycle 23 and into Cycle 24. Three key elements of the amended scenario are: (1) as the net following-polarity magnetic field from the sunspot-region Ω-loop fields of an ongoing sunspot cycle is swept poleward to cancel and replace the opposite-polarity polar-cap field from the previous sunspot cycle, it remains connected to the ongoing sunspot cycle's toroidal source-field band at the bottom of the convection zone; (2) topological pumping by the convection zone's free convection keeps the horizontal extent of the poleward-migrating following-polarity field pushed to the bottom, forcing it to gradually cancel and replace old horizontal field below it that connects the ongoing-cycle source-field band to the previous-cycle polar-cap field; (3) in each polar hemisphere, by continually shearing the poloidal component of the settling new horizontal field, the latitudinal differential rotation low in the convection zone generates the next-cycle source-field band poleward of the ongoing-cycle band. The amended scenario is a more-plausible version of Babcock's scenario, and its viability can be explored by appropriate kinematic flux-transport solar-dynamo simulations. A paper giving a full description of our dynamo scenario is posted on arXiv (http://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05371).This work was funded by the Heliophysics Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate through the Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology Program and the Hinode Project.

Oceanographic and atmospheric conditions on the continental shelf north of the Monterey Bay during August 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramp, Steven R.; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J.; Shulman, Igor; Chao, Yi; Wolf, Rebecca E.; Bahr, Frederick L.

2011-09-01

A comprehensive data set from the ocean and atmosphere was obtained just north of the Monterey Bay as part of the Monterey Bay 2006 (MB06) field experiment. The wind stress, heat fluxes, and sea surface temperature were sampled by the Naval Postgraduate School's TWIN OTTER research aircraft. In situ data were collected using ships, moorings, gliders and AUVs. Four data-assimilating numerical models were additionally run, including the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS ®) model for the atmosphere and the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), and the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) for the ocean. The scientific focus of the Adaptive Sampling and Prediction Experiment (ASAP) was on the upwelling/relaxation cycle and the resulting three-dimensional coastal circulation near a coastal promontory, in this case Point Año Nuevo, CA. The emphasis of this study is on the circulation over the continental shelf as estimated from the wind forcing, two ADCP moorings, and model outputs. The wind stress during August 2006 consisted of 3-10 day upwelling favorable events separated by brief 1-3 day relaxations. During the first two weeks there was some correlation between local winds and currents and the three models' capability to reproduce the events. During the last two weeks, largely equatorward surface wind stress forced the sea surface and barotropic poleward flow occurred over the shelf, reducing model skill at predicting the circulation. The poleward flow was apparently remotely forced by mesoscale eddies and alongshore pressure gradients, which were not well simulated by the models. The small, high-resolution model domains were highly reliant on correct open boundary conditions to drive these larger-scale poleward flows. Multiply-nested models were no more effective than well-initialized local models in this respect.

Observations of the sub-inertial, near-surface East India Coastal Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Shankar, D.; Aparna, S. G.; Mukherjee, A.

2017-09-01

We present surface current measurements made using two pairs of HF (high-frequency) radars deployed on the east coast of India. The radar data, used in conjunction with data from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements on the shelf and slope off the Indian east coast, confirm that the East India Coastal Current (EICC) flows poleward as a deep current during February-March. During the summer monsoon, when the EICC flows poleward, and October-December, when the EICC flows equatorward, the current is shallow (< 40 m deep), except towards the northern end of the coast. Data from Argo floats confirm a shallow mixed layer that leads to a strong vertical shear off southeast India during October-December. A consequence of the strong stratification is that the upward propagation of phase evident in the ADCP data does not always extend to the surface. Even within the seasons, however, the poleward and equatorward flows show variability at periods of the order of 20-45 days, implying that the EICC direction is the same over the top ∼100 m for short durations. The high spatial resolution of the HF radar data brings out features at scales shorter than those resolved by the altimeter and the high temporal resolution captures short bursts that are not captured in satellite-derived estimates of surface currents. The radar data show that the EICC, which is a boundary current, leaves a strong imprint on the current at the coast. Since the EICC is known to be affected significantly by remote forcing, this correlation between the boundary and nearshore current implies the need to use large-domain models even for simulating the nearshore current. Comparison with a simulation by a state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Model, run at a resolution of 0.1 ° × 0.1 ° , shows that the model is able to simulate only the low-frequency variability.

Estimating the Response of Mid-latitude Orographic Precipitation to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoming

The possible change in orographic precipitation in response to global warming is a rising concern under climate change, which could potentially cause significant societal impact. A general circulation model was employed to simulate the climate on an aquaplanet which has idealized mountains at its mid-latitudes. It was found that orographic precipitation at northern mid-latitudes could increase by rates faster than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, ˜7%/K of surface warming, in doubling CO2 simulations, while at southern mid-latitudes orographic precipitation decreased. The frequency of extreme events increased at all latitudes of the idealized mountains. Through a simple diagnostic model it was revealed that the changes in the climatological means of orographic precipitation rates were mostly determined by the changes in three variables: the speed of the wind component perpendicular to a mountain, the vertical displacement of saturated parcels, and the moist adiabatic lapse rate of saturation specific humidity. The last variable had relatively uniform contribution to the total changes in orographic precipitation across different latitudes, about 4 -- 5%/K. But contributions from the changes in wind speed and saturated vertical displacement were found to have strong north-south asymmetry, which were linked to the poleward shift of storm tracks. The changes in wind speed had positive contributions in general, with larger contributions at higher mid-latitudes. While the changes in saturated vertical displacement had negative contributions at all latitudes, but larger negative contributions were located at lower mid-latitudes. Although the poleward shift of storm tracks greatly affects regional precipitation, following the poleward shift of storm tracks the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of precipitation at the latitudes of maximum precipitation in the control simulation is very similar to that in the warm climate simulation, except that precipitation intensity was positively shifted by a constant factor --- mainly due to changes in the moist adiabatic lapse rate of saturation specific humidity.

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric

2011-01-01

A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Xiuzhen; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao

2016-05-01

Summer heat waves with persistent extreme high temperatures have been occurring with increasing frequency in recent decades. These extreme events have disastrous consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. In this study, we examine three summers with intense and protracted heat waves: the summers of 2003, 2006, and 2013, with high temperatures located mainly in southeastern, southwestern, and eastern China, respectively. The synoptic-scale characteristics of these heat waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are investigated. In the early heat wave episode of 2003, a heat center was located in the southeast coastal provinces during the first 20 days of July. The maximum southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) induced anticyclonic anomalies to the south, associated with southwestward intensification of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), and extreme high temperatures were found only to the south of the Yangtze River. In the later episode, a poleward displacement of the EAJS and an enhanced WNPSH over the midlatitudes of eastern China resulted in a "heat dome" over the region, and the heat wave extended northward to cover a larger area of eastern China. The coupling between the westward-enhanced WNPSH and poleward-displaced EAJS was found in the East China heat wave of 2013 as well. But the area of high temperatures reached far to the north in August 2013, with below-normal temperatures located in a small region of South China. In the 2006 southwestern drought and heat wave, extreme poleward displacement of the EAJS, associated with extraordinary westward extension of the WNSPH, resulted in further blocking of the moisture supply from the southwest monsoon. Large-scale moisture deficiencies, dry conditions, and downslope winds were common features of all investigated heat wave episodes. But in 2006, low-level heat lows associated with a well-mixed layer due to intensive daytime heating and atmospheric turbulence were emphasized.

Development of the Near-Earth Magnetotail and the Auroral Arc Associated with Substorm Onset: Evidence for a New Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyashita, Y.; Hiraki, Y.; Angelopoulos, V.; Ieda, A.; Machida, S.

2015-12-01

We have studied the time sequence of the development of the near-Earth magnetotail and the auroral arc associated with a substorm onset, using the data from the THEMIS spacecraft and ground-based observatories at high temporal and spatial resolutions. We discuss four steps of the auroral development, linking them to magnetotail changes: the auroral fading, the initial brightening of an auroral onset arc, the enhancement of the wave-like structure, and the poleward expansion. A case study shows that near-Earth magnetic reconnection began at X~-17 RE at least ~3 min before the auroral initial brightening and ~1 min before the auroral fading. Ionospheric large-scale convection also became enhanced just before the auroral fading and before the auroral initial brightening. Then low-frequency waves were amplified in the plasma sheet at X~-10 RE, with the pressure increase due to the arrival of the earthward flow from the near-Earth reconnection site ~20 s before the enhancement of the auroral wave-like structure. Finally, the dipolarization began ~30 s before the auroral poleward expansion. On the basis of the present observations, we suggest that near-Earth magnetic reconnection plays two roles in the substorm triggering. First, it generates a fast earthward flow and Alfvén waves. When the Alfvén waves which propagate much faster than the fast flow reach the ionosphere, large-scale ionospheric convection is enhanced, leading to the auroral initial brightening and subsequent gradual growth of the auroral wave-like structure. Second, when the reconnection-initiated fast flow reaches the near-Earth magnetotail, it promotes rapid growth of an instability, such as the ballooning instability, and the auroral wave-like structure is further enhanced. When the instability grows sufficiently, the dipolarization and the auroral poleward expansion are initiated.

Hadley circulation extent and strength in a wide range of simulated climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Agostino, Roberta; Adam, Ori; Lionello, Piero; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

Understanding the Hadley circulation (HC) dynamics is crucial because its changes affect the seasonal migration of the ITCZ, the extent of subtropical arid regions and the strength of the monsoons. Despite decades of study, the factors controlling its strength and extent have remained unclear. Here we analyse how HC strength and extent change over a wide range of climate conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum to future projections. The large climate change between paleoclimate simulations and future scenarios offers the chance to analyse robust HC changes and their link to large-scale factors. The HC shrinks and strengthens in the coldest simulation relative to the warmest. A progressive poleward shift of its edges is evident as the climate warms (at a rate of 0.35°lat./K in each hemisphere). The HC extent and strength both depend on the isentropic slope, which in turn is related to the meridional temperature gradient, subtropical static stability and tropopause height. In multiple robust regression analysis using these as predictors, we find that the tropical tropopause height does not add relevant information to the model beyond surface temperature. Therefore, primarily the static stability and secondarily the meridional temperature contrast together account for the bulk of the almost the total HC variance. However, the regressions leave some of the northern HC edge and southern HC strength variance unexplained. The effectiveness of this analysis is limited by the correlation among the predictors and their relationship with mean temperature. In fact, for all simulations, the tropical temperature explains well the variations of HC except its southern hemisphere intensity. Hence, it can be used as the sole predictor to diagnose the HC response to greenhouse-induced global warming. How to account for the evolution of the southern HC strength remains unclear, because of the large inter-model spread in this quantity.

Sea-ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans.

PubMed

Langbehn, Tom J; Varpe, Øystein

2017-12-01

Light is a central driver of biological processes and systems. Receding sea ice changes the lightscape of high-latitude oceans and more light will penetrate into the sea. This affects bottom-up control through primary productivity and top-down control through vision-based foraging. We model effects of sea-ice shading on visual search to develop a mechanistic understanding of how climate-driven sea-ice retreat affects predator-prey interactions. We adapt a prey encounter model for ice-covered waters, where prey-detection performance of planktivorous fish depends on the light cycle. We use hindcast sea-ice concentrations (past 35 years) and compare with a future no-ice scenario to project visual range along two south-north transects with different sea-ice distributions and seasonality, one through the Bering Sea and one through the Barents Sea. The transect approach captures the transition from sub-Arctic to Arctic ecosystems and allows for comparison of latitudinal differences between longitudes. We find that past sea-ice retreat has increased visual search at a rate of 2.7% to 4.2% per decade from the long-term mean; and for high latitudes, we predict a 16-fold increase in clearance rate. Top-down control is therefore predicted to intensify. Ecological and evolutionary consequences for polar marine communities and energy flows would follow, possibly also as tipping points and regime shifts. We expect species distributions to track the receding ice-edge, and in particular expect species with large migratory capacity to make foraging forays into high-latitude oceans. However, the extreme seasonality in photoperiod of high-latitude oceans may counteract such shifts and rather act as a zoogeographical filter limiting poleward range expansion. The provided mechanistic insights are relevant for pelagic ecosystems globally, including lakes where shifted distributions are seldom possible but where predator-prey consequences would be much related. As part of the discussion on photoperiodic implications for high-latitude range shifts, we provide a short review of studies linking physical drivers to latitudinal extent. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A study of directional instability during mitotic chromosome movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joglekar, Ajit P.

Mitotic chromosome movements are responsible for the correct segregation of duplicated chromosomes into the daughter cells. Errors in this process are known to play a role in some of the serious diseases such as cancer, and the little understood process of aging. A thorough comprehension of the physical basis of this process is therefore necessary. An intriguing aspect of chromosome movements during mitosis is "directional instability": runs with approximately constant speed punctuated by abrupt reversal in direction of motion. I have constructed a mechanistic model that views chromosome movement as a result of interplay between poleward and antipoleward or polar ejection forces (PEF) on a chromosome; and microtubule (MT) depolymerization-coupled movement of the chromosome. Computer simulations based on this model using a single set of parameters accurately and quantitatively predict: the force, character, speed, and duration of chromosome movements, oscillations of chromosomes associated with only one spindle pole, the larger force during anaphase, the effect of MT-depolymerizing drugs on chromosome movements, and the decreased turnover of kinetochore-MTs during anaphase. The model also predicts how chromosome behavior should respond to perturbations of the PEF. These predictions could be unequivocally tested if it were possible to destroy structures smaller than the light resolution limit with minimal collateral damage. To address these requirements, I developed a methodology for ultrahigh resolution microsurgery with tightly-focused, ultrafast lasers pulses. This entailed an in-depth study of optical breakdown in dielectrics. Characterization of the single pulse damage in test dielectric materials ranging from silicon and glass to cell walls and membranes has shown that in the target regions where the laser intensity exceeds critical intensity, optical breakdown proceeds by tunneling ionization followed by a runaway avalanche ionization that ends with the ionization of all the valence electrons. Highly reproducible features on the nanometer size-scale indicate that the valence electron density is the central factor determining the critical intensity, implying that high precision can be maintained in a wide range of solids. Along with the new understanding optical breakdown, this technique will find potential applications in diverse fields ranging from MEMS fabrication to nano-fluidics, as well as cellular nanosurgery.

Cloud motions on Venus - Global structure and organization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, S. S.; Suomi, V. E.

1981-01-01

Results on cloud motions on Venus obtained over a period of 3.5 days from Mariner 10 television images are presented. The implied atmosphere flow is almost zonal everywhere on the visible disk, and is in the same retrograde sense as the solid planet. Objective analysis of motions suggests the presence of jet cores (-130 m/s) and organized atmospheric waves. The longitudinal mean meridional profile of the zonal component of motion of the ultraviolet features shows presence of a midlatitude jet stream (-110 m/s). The mean zonal component is -97 m/s at the equator. The mean meridional motion at most latitudes is directed toward the pole in either hemisphere and is at least an order of magnitude smaller so that the flow is nearly zonal. A tentative conclusion from the limited coverage available from Mariner 10 is that at the level of ultraviolet features mean meridional circulation is the dominant mode of poleward angular momentum transfer as opposed to the eddy circulation.

Relationship between Birkeland current regions, particle precipitation, and electric fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De La Beaujardiere, O.; Watermann, J.; Newell, P.; Rich, F.

1993-01-01

The relationship of the large-scale dayside Birkeland currents to large-scale particle precipitation patterns, currents, and convection is examined using DMSP and Sondrestrom radar observations. It is found that the local time of the mantle currents is not limited to the longitude of the cusp proper, but covers a larger local time extent. The mantle currents flow entirely on open field lines. About half of region 1 currents flow on open field lines, consistent with the assumption that the region 1 currents are generated by the solar wind dynamo and flow within the surface that separates open and closed field lines. More than 80 percent of the Birkeland current boundaries do not correspond to particle precipitation boundaries. Region 2 currents extend beyond the plasma sheet poleward boundary; region 1 currents flow in part on open field lines; mantle currents and mantle particles are not coincident. On most passes when a triple current sheet is observed, the convection reversal is located on closed field lines.

Northern range expansion of European populations of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi is associated with global warming-correlated genetic admixture and population-specific temperature adaptations.

PubMed

Krehenwinkel, Henrik; Tautz, Diethard

2013-04-01

Poleward range expansions are observed for an increasing number of species, which may be an effect of global warming during the past decades. However, it is still not clear in how far these expansions reflect simple geographical shifts of species ranges, or whether new genetic adaptations play a role as well. Here, we analyse the expansion of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi into Northern Europe during the last century. We have used a range-wide sampling of contemporary populations and historical specimens from museums to trace the phylogeography and genetic changes associated with the range shift. Based on the analysis of mitochondrial, microsatellite and SNP markers, we observe a higher level of genetic diversity in the expanding populations, apparently due to admixture of formerly isolated lineages. Using reciprocal transplant experiments for testing overwintering tolerance, as well as temperature preference and tolerance tests in the laboratory, we find that the invading spiders have possibly shifted their temperature niche. This may be a key adaptation for survival in Northern latitudes. The museum samples allow a reconstruction of the invasion's genetic history. A first, small-scale range shift started around 1930, in parallel with the onset of global warming. A more massive invasion of Northern Europe associated with genetic admixture and morphological changes occurred in later decades. We suggest that the latter range expansion into far Northern latitudes may be a consequence of the admixture that provided the genetic material for adaptations to new environmental regimes. Hence, global warming could have facilitated the initial admixture of populations and this resulted in genetic lineages with new habitat preferences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Multiple-satellite studies of magnetospheric substorms: Plasma sheet recovery and the poleward leap of auroral-zone activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pytte, T.; Mcpherron, R. L.; Kivelson, M. G.; West, H. I., Jr.; Hones, E. W., Jr.

1977-01-01

Particle observations from pairs of satellites (Ogo 5, Vela 4A and 5B, Imp 3) during the recovery of plasma sheet thickness late in substorms were examined. Six of the nine events occurred within about 5 min in locations near the estimated position of the neutral sheet, but over wide ranges of east-west and radial separations. The time of occurrence and spatial extent of the recovery were related to the onset (defined by ground Pi 2 pulsations) and approximate location (estimated from ground mid-latitude magnetic signatures) of substorm expansions. It was found that the plasma sheet recovery occurred 10 - 30 min after the last in a series of Pi bursts, which were interpreted to indicate that the recovery was not due directly to a late, high latitude substorm expansion. The recovery was also observed to occur after the substorm current wedge had moved into the evening sector and to extend far to the east of the center of the last preceding substorm expansion.

On the Latitudinal Distribution of Debris in the Northern Hemisphere of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guinness, E. A.; Leff, C.; Arvidson, R. E.

1985-01-01

Examination of Mariner 9 images showed evidence of debris mantling on Mars. The evidence included craters that appeared to be filled with debris and an apparent lack of small craters. Based on such data, it was suggested that a circumpolar debris mantle exists poleward of about 30N and 30S latitudes. The presence of a debris layer has important implications for the modulation over time of atmospheric pressure by the cap-regolith-atmosphere system. Preliminary efforts in providing constraints on the thickness and distribution of debris are discussed. The initial approach is to examine crater size-frequency data for selected regions on Mars, later expanding the study to include an inventory of aeolian features and other direct indicators of debris deposition. The crater size-frequency distributions for ten regions between latitudes 20N and 80N and covering a range of longitudes were discovered. Crater data were derived from Viking Orbiter images with resolutions of between 26 and 75 meters/pixel.

Corals as bioindicators of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinn, Eugene A.

2008-01-01

Potential effects of climate change and ocean acidification have energized much discussion among coral scientists, especially biologists. Will corals go extinct, lose their skeletons, or migrate pole-ward to cooler waters? No one knows, but some simple experiments, recent observations, and recent studies may shed some light on these questions. Above all they show the need for collaboration among biologists and geologists.

The importance of planetary rotation period for ocean heat transport.

PubMed

Cullum, J; Stevens, D; Joshi, M

2014-08-01

The climate and, hence, potential habitability of a planet crucially depends on how its atmospheric and ocean circulation transports heat from warmer to cooler regions. However, previous studies of planetary climate have concentrated on modeling the dynamics of atmospheres, while dramatically simplifying the treatment of oceans, which neglects or misrepresents the effect of the ocean in the total heat transport. Even the majority of studies with a dynamic ocean have used a simple so-called aquaplanet that has no continental barriers, which is a configuration that dramatically changes the ocean dynamics. Here, the significance of the response of poleward ocean heat transport to planetary rotation period is shown with a simple meridional barrier--the simplest representation of any continental configuration. The poleward ocean heat transport increases significantly as the planetary rotation period is increased. The peak heat transport more than doubles when the rotation period is increased by a factor of ten. There are also significant changes to ocean temperature at depth, with implications for the carbon cycle. There is strong agreement between the model results and a scale analysis of the governing equations. This result highlights the importance of both planetary rotation period and the ocean circulation when considering planetary habitability.

Filamentary field-aligned currents at the polar cap region during northward interplanetary magnetic field derived with the Swarm constellation

PubMed Central

Lühr, Hermann; Huang, Tao; Wing, Simon; Kervalishvili, Guram; Rauberg, Jan; Korth, Haje

2017-01-01

ESA’s Swarm constellation mission makes it possible for the first time to determine field-aligned currents (FACs) in the ionosphere uniquely. In particular at high latitudes, the dual-satellite approach can reliably detect some FAC structures which are missed by the traditional single-satellite technique. These FAC events occur preferentially poleward of the auroral oval and during times of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation. Most events appear on the nightside. They are not related to the typical FAC structures poleward of the cusp, commonly termed NBZ. Simultaneously observed precipitating particle spectrograms and auroral images from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites are consistent with the detected FACs and indicate that they occur on closed field lines mostly adjacent to the auroral oval. We suggest that the FACs are associated with Sun-aligned filamentary auroral arcs. Here we introduce in an initial study features of the high-latitude FAC structures which have been observed during the early phase of the Swarm mission. A more systematic survey over longer times is required to fully characterize the so far undetected field aligned currents. PMID:29056833

Intense uniform precipitation of low-energy electrons over the polar cap

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meng, C.; Kroehl, H.W.

1977-06-01

Analysis of precipitating electron data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) revealed significant enhancements (as large as two orders of magnitude) over the quiet time level of the low-energy electron flux over the polar cap during magnetic storms in September and October 1974. Strong asymmetry between the two polar caps was observed, and it may indicate that these electrons are of interplanetary (i.e., solar) origin and that their entry is influenced by the interplanetary magnetic field as illustrated by Yeager and Frank (1976) and Fennell et al., (1975). Energy spectra showing the spatial and temporal variations of the phenomenamore » are presented. There also is a region between the equatorward edge of the polar cap enhancement and the poleward edge of the evening auroral precipitation in which the electron flux drops down to the background level. If the observed intense polar cap precipitation is indeed of interplanetary origin, this void region implies that the poleward boundary of the auroral precipitation does not coincide with the equatorward boundary of the open field lines and that their separation cna be as wide as a few degrees in latitude.« less

Divergence of species responses to climate change

PubMed Central

Fei, Songlin; Desprez, Johanna M.; Potter, Kevin M.; Jo, Insu; Knott, Jonathan A.; Oswalt, Christopher M.

2017-01-01

Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impacts are less understood. We analyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73%) than a poleward shift (62%) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The observed shifts are primarily due to the changes of subpopulation abundances in the leading edges and are significantly associated with changes in moisture availability and successional processes. These spatial shifts are associated with species that have similar traits (drought tolerance, wood density, and seed weight) and evolutionary histories (most angiosperms shifted westward and most gymnosperms shifted poleward). Our results indicate that changes in moisture availability have stronger near-term impacts on vegetation dynamics than changes in temperature. The divergent responses to climate change by trait- and phylogenetic-specific groups could lead to changes in composition of forest ecosystems, putting the resilience and sustainability of various forest ecosystems in question. PMID:28560343

Intensification of Chile-Peru upwelling under climate change: diagnosing the impact of natural and anthropogenic forcing from the IPSL-CM5 model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebri, B.; Khodri, M.; Gastineau, G.; Echevin, V.; Thiria, S.

2017-12-01

Upwelling is critical to the biological production, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean's major eastern boundary current ecosystems. A conceptual hypothesis suggests that the winds that favour coastal upwelling intensify with anthropogenic global warming due to increased land-sea temperature contrast. We examine this hypothesis for the dynamics of the Peru-Chile upwelling using a set of four large ensembles of coupled, ocean-atmosphere model simulations with the IPSL model covering the 1940-2014 period. In one large ensemble we prescribe the standard CMIP5 greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, anthropogenic aerosol, ozone and volcanic forcings, following the historical experiments through 2005 and RCP8.5 from 2006-2014, while the other ensembles consider separately the GHG, ozone and volcanic forcings. We find evidence for intensification of upwelling-favourable winds with however little evidence of atmospheric pressure gradients in response to increasing land-sea temperature differences. Our analyses reveal poleward migration and intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone near poleward boundaries of climatological Peruvian and Chilean upwelling zones. This contribution further investigates the physical mechanisms for the Peru-Chile upwelling intensification and the relative role of natural and anthropogenic forcings.

Relative Timing of Substorm-Associated Processes in the Near-Earth Magnetotail and Development of Auroral Onset Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyashita, Y.; Ieda, A.; Machida, S.; Hiraki, Y.; Angelopoulos, V.; McFadden, J. P.; Auster, H. U.; Mende, S. B.; Donovan, E.; Larson, D. E.

2014-12-01

We have studied the relative timing of the processes in the near-Earth magnetotail and development of auroral onset arc at the beginning of the expansion phase, based on substorm events observed by the THEMIS spacecraft and ground-based all-sky imagers. The THEMIS all-sky imagers can observe auroras over a wide area with temporal and spacial resolutions higher than spacecraft-borne cameras. This enables us to investigate the timing of auroral development in more detail than before. A few min after the appearance and intensification of an auroral onset arc, it begins to form wave-like structure. Then auroral poleward expansion begins another few min later. THEMIS magnetotail observations clearly show that magnetic reconnection is initiated at X~-20 Re at least 1-2 min before the intensification of auroral onset arc. Then low-frequency waves are excited in the plasma sheet at X~-10 Re 2 min before dipolarization, which is simultaneous with the formation of auroral wave-like structure. Dipolarization begins at the same time as the auroral poleward expansion. These results suggest that near-Earth magnetic reconnection plays some role in the development of dipolarization and auroral onset arc.

Concentric crater fill on Mars - An aeolian alternative to ice-rich mass wasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zimbelman, J. R.; Clifford, S. M.; Williams, S. H.

1989-01-01

Concentric crater fill, a distinctive martian landform represented by a concentric pattern of surface undulations confined within a crater rim, has been interpreted as an example of ice-enhanced regolith creep at midlatitudes (e.g., Squyres and Carr, 1986). Theoretical constraints on the stability and mobility of ground ice limit the applicability of an ice-rich soil in effectively mobilizing downslope movement at latitudes poleward of + or - 30 deg, where concentric crater fill is observed. High-resolution images of concentric crater fill material in the Utopia Planitia region (45 deg N, 271 deg W) show it to be an eroded, multiple-layer deposit. Layering should not be preserved if the crater fill material moved by slow deformation throughout its thickness, as envisioned in the ice-enhanced creep model. Multiple layers are also exposed in the plains material surrounding the craters, indicating a recurrent depositional process that was at least regional in extent. Mantling layers are observed in high-resolution images of many other locations around Mars, suggesting that deposition occurred on a global scale and was not limited to the Utopia Planitia region. It is suggested that an aeolian interpretation for the origin and modification of concentric crater fill material is most consistent with morphologic and theoretical constraints.

Observing Equatorial Thermospheric Winds and Temperatures with a New Mapping Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faivre, M. W.; Meriwether, J. W.; Sherwood, P.; Veliz, O.

2005-12-01

Application of the Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) at Arequipa, Peru (16.4S, 71.4 W) to measure the Doppler shifts and Doppler broadenings in the equatorial O(1D) 630-nm nightglow has resulted in numerous detections of a large-scale thermospheric phenomenon called the Midnight Temperature Maximum (MTM). A recent detector upgrade with a CCD camera has improved the accuracy of these measurements by a factor of 5. Temperature increases of 50 to 150K have been measured during nights in April and July, 2005, with error bars less than 10K after averaging in all directions. Moreover, the meridional wind measurements show evidence for a flow reversal from equatorward to poleward near local midnight for such events. A new observing strategy based upon the pioneering work of Burnside et al.[1981] maps the equatorial wind and temperature fields by observing in eight equally-spaced azimuth directions, each with a zenith angle of 60 degrees. Analysis of the data obtained with this technique gives the mean wind velocities in the meridional and zonal directions as well as the horizontal gradients of the wind field for these directions. Significant horizontal wind gradients are found for the meridional direction but not for the zonal direction. The zonal wind blows eastward throughout the night with a maximum speed of ~150 m/s near the middle of the night and then decreases towards zero just before dawn. In general, the fastest poleward meridional wind is observed near mid-evening. By the end of the night, the meridional flow tends to be more equatorward at speeds of about 50 m/s. Using the assumption that local time and longitude are equivalent over a period of 30 minutes, a map of the horizontal wind field vector field is constructed over a range of 12 degrees latitude centered at 16.5 S. Comparison between MTM nights and quiet nights (no MTM) revealed significant differences in the horizontal wind fields. Using the method of Fourier decomposition of the line-of-sight winds, the vertical wind can be retrieved from the horizontal flow divergence with a much-improved sensitivity than that represented by direct zenith measurements. The value of the vertical wind speed ranges from -5 to 5 m/s. Some nights seem to present gravity wave activity with periodic fluctuations of 1-2 hours visible in the vertical winds as well as in the temperature series.

Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo; Svensson, Gunilla

2014-05-01

Observations during recent decades show that there is a greater near surface warming occurring in the Arctic, particularly during winter, than at lower latitudes. Understanding the mechanisms controlling surface temperature in the Arctic is therefore an important priority in climate research. The surface energy budget is a key proximate control on Arctic surface temperature. During winter, insolation is low or absent and the atmospheric boundary layer is typically very stable, limiting turbulent hear exchange, so that the surface energy budget is almost entirely governed by longwave radiation. The net surface longwave radiation (NetLW) at this time has a strikingly bimodal distribution: conditions oscillate between a 'radiatively clear' state with rapid surface heat loss and a "moist cloudy" state with NetLW ˜ 0 W m-2. Each state can persist for days or weeks at a time but transitions between them happen in a matter of hours. This distribution of NetLW has important implications for the Arctic climate, as even a small shift in the frequency of occupancy of each state would be enough to significantly affect the overall surface energy budget and thus winter sea ice thickness. The clear and cloudy states typically occur during periods of relatively high and low surface pressure respectively, suggesting a link with synoptic-scale dynamics. This suggestion is consistent with previous studies indicating that the formation of low-level and mid-level clouds over the Arctic Ocean is typically associated with cyclonic activity and passing frontal systems . More recent work has shown that intense filamentary moisture intrusion events are a common feature in the Arctic and can induce large episodic increases of longwave radiation into the surface. The poleward transport of water vapor across 70N during boreal winter is examined in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product and 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, focusing on intense moisture intrusion events. A total of 298 events are objectively identified between 1990 and 2010 in the reanalysis dataset, an average of 14 per season, accounting for 28% of the total poleward moisture transport across 70N. Composites of sea level pressure and potential temperature on the 2 potential vorticity unit surface during intrusions show a large-scale blocking pattern to the east of each basin, deflecting midlatitude cyclones and their associated moisture poleward. The interannual variability of intrusions is strongly correlated with variability in winter-mean surface downward longwave radiation and skin temperature averaged over the Arctic. The 16 CMIP5 models are validated with respect to the reanalysis dataset and a subset of 7 models is chosen as best representing intrusions. Intrusions in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) from these 7 models are analyzed between 2060 and 2100. Positive trends in the moisture transported by intrusions are noted. The mechanisms behind these trends are examined in each of the models, dynamically and thermodynamically, with regard to the positioning of the storm track and climatological jets in a moistening atmosphere.

Is Polar Amplification Deeper and Stronger than Dynamicists Assume?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Maroon, E.

2017-12-01

In the CMIP multi-model mean under strong future warming, Arctic amplification is confined to the lower troposphere, so that the meridional gradient of warming reverses around 500 mb and the upper troposphere is characterized by strong "tropical amplification" in which warming weakens with increasing latitude. This model-derived pattern of warming maxima in the upper-level tropics and lower-level Arctic has become a canonical assumption driving theories of the large-scale circulation response to climate change. Yet, several lines of evidence and reasoning suggest that Arctic amplification may in fact extend through the entire depth of the troposphere, and/or may be stronger than commonly modeled. These include satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) temperature trends as a function of latitude and vertical level, the recent discovery that the extratropical negative cloud phase feedback in models is largely spurious, and the very strong polar amplification observed in past warm and lukewarm climates. Such a warming pattern, with deep, dominant Arctic amplification, would have very different implications for the circulation than a canonical CMIP-like warming: instead of slightly shifting poleward and strengthening, eddies, jets and cells might shift equatorward and considerably weaken. Indeed, surface winds have been mysteriously weakening ("stilling") at almost all stations over the last half-century or so, there has been no poleward shift in northern hemisphere circulation metrics, and past warm climates' subtropics were apparently quite wet (and their global ocean circulations were weak.) To explore these possibilities more deeply, we examine the y-z structure of warming and circulation changes across a much broader range of models, scenarios and time periods than the CMIP future mean, and use an MSU simulator to compare them to the satellite warming record. Specifically, we examine whether the use of historical (rather than future) forcing, AMIP (rather than CMIP) configuration, individual GCMs, and/or individual ensemble members can better reproduce the structure of the MSU and surface-wind observations. Figure 1 already shows that tropical amplification is absent in the CESM1 historical ensemble (1979-2012). The results of these analyses will guide our future modeling work on these topics.

Changes in the width of the tropical belt due to simple radiative forcing changes in the GeoMIP simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Nicholas A.; Seidel, Dian J.; Birner, Thomas; Davis, Sean M.; Tilmes, Simone

2016-08-01

Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of Earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate forcings and the response of comprehensive climate models to more complex climate forcings, few have examined how comprehensive climate models respond to simplified climate forcings. To shed light on robust processes associated with tropical expansion, here we examine how the tropical belt width, as measured by the Hadley cell edges, responds to simplified forcings in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The tropical belt expands in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and contracts in response to a reduction in the solar constant, with a range of a factor of 3 in the response among nine models. Models with more surface warming and an overall stronger temperature response to quadrupled carbon dioxide exhibit greater tropical expansion, a robust result in spite of inter-model differences in the mean Hadley cell width, parameterizations, and numerical schemes. Under a scenario where the solar constant is reduced to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of carbon dioxide, the Hadley cells remain at their preindustrial width, despite the residual stratospheric cooling associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels. Quadrupled carbon dioxide produces greater tropical belt expansion in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is strongest in austral summer and autumn. Ozone depletion has been argued to cause this pattern of changes in observations and model experiments, but the results here indicate that seasonally and hemispherically asymmetric tropical expansion can be a basic response of the general circulation to climate forcings.

Sensitivity of the Meridional Overturning Circulation to the Pattern of the Surface Density Flux

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

Atlantic alone, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports over 1015 W of heat (Ganachaud and Wunsch 2000) poleward...Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 970–985. Bryden, H. L., H. Longworth, and S. Cunningham, 2005: Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25...Rahmstorf, 2007: On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation . Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2001, doi:

High Resolution Ecosystem Structure, Biomass and Blue Carbon stocks in Mangrove Ecosystems- Methods and Applications of Lidar, radar Interferometry and High Resolution imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Lee, S. K.; Feliciano, E. A.; Simard, M.; Trettin, C.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate is determined by the exchange of radiant energy between the Sun, Earth and space. The absorbed solar radiation (ASR) fuels the climate system, providing the energy required for atmospheric and oceanic motions, while the system cools by emitting outgoing longwave (LW) radiation to space. A central objective of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is to produce a long-term global climate data record of Earth's radiation budget along with the associated atmospheric and surface properties that influence it. CERES data products utilize a number of data sources, including broadband radiometers measuring incoming and reflected solar radiation and OLR, polar orbiting and geostationary spectral imagers, meteorological, aerosol and ozone assimilation data, and snow/sea-ice maps based on microwave radiometer data. Here we use simple diagnostic model of Earth's albedo and CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Ed4.0 data for March 2000-February 2016 to quantify interannual variations in SW TOA flux associated with surface albedo and atmospheric reflectance and transmittance variations. Surface albedo variations account for <0.5% of the total SW TOA flux variance over the tropics and 4% globally. Variations in atmospheric reflectance and transmittance account for virtually all of the total SW TOA flux variance over the tropics and only 81% globally. The remaining 15% of the global SW TOA flux variance is explained by the co-variance of surface albedo and atmospheric reflectance/transmittance. Equatorward of 60-degree latitude, the atmospheric contribution exceeds that of the surface by at least an order-of-magnitude. In contrast, the surface and atmospheric variations contribute equally poleward of 60S and surface variations account for twice as much as the atmosphere poleward of 60N. However, as much as 40% of the total SW TOA flux variance poleward of 60N is explained by the covariance of surface albedo and atmospheric reflectance/transmittance, highlighting the tight coupling between sea-ice concentration and cloud properties over the Arctic Ocean.

A statistical study of near-Earth magnetotail evolution during substorms and pseudosubstorms with THEMIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukui, K.; Machida, S.; Miyashita, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Angelopoulos, V.

2017-12-01

Substorms and pseudosubstorms (pseudobreakups) are very similar phenomena. In terms of auroral morphology, pseudosubstorms are generally more localized and more short-lived, compared with substorms, and are not accompanied by poleward expansion. We examined auroral development for events from November 2007 through April 2010, using data from THEMIS all-sky imagers. We defined events accompanied and not accompanied by poleward expansion as substorms and pseudosubstorms, respectively. To understand the cause of auroral development, we investigated temporal and spatial development of the near-Earth magnetotail during substorms and pseudosubstorms, based on superposed epoch analysis of THEMIS data. We find that Vx begins to increase at -9.5 >X(GSM)>-11.5 Re around onset for both substorms and pseudosubstorms. This seems to be due to earthward flows caused by magnetic reconnection. The northward Bz also increases around onset at -9.5 >X>-10.5 Re both substorms and pseudosubstorms. The amount and rate of Bz change are larger for substorms than for pseudosubstorms. In the earthward (-7.5 >X>-9.5 Re) and tailward (-10.5 >X>-12.5 Re) regions, Bz increases substantially for substorms, whereas it does not increase very much for pseudosubstorms. These results indicate that dipolarization is weaker for pseudosubstorms than for substorms, and the dipolarization region does not spread extensively for pseudosubstorms. We, therefore, suggest that current disruption related to dipolarization does not develop tailward and hence auroral poleward expansion does not occur for pseudosubstorms. Meanwhile, the plasma and magnetic pressures increase at -6.5 >X>-7.5 Re after onset in association with dipolarization, particularly for substorms. The total pressure (the sum of the plasma and magnetic pressures) prior to the onset is larger in that region for substorms than for pseudosubstorms. At -7.5 >X>-8.5 Re the total pressure hardly differ between substorms and pseudosubstorms. Thus we conclude that the spatial gradient of the total pressure is a key that determines whether the current disruption takes place, that is, whether initial activation develops into a substorm or into a subsiding pseudosubstorm.

Suborbital Holocene Climate Variability over Continental Western Eurasia Coupled with Poleward Heat Transport to the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, J. L.; Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

2016-12-01

The centennial-scale coupling between the Holocene paleoclimate of Eurasia and ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the North Atlantic sector remains weakly understood, due to a paucity of high-resolution data from the continental interior. To investigate these links, we detrended a composite record of stalagmite δ18O from Kinderlinskaya Cave (southern Urals Mountains), which exhibits long-term warming from 11.7 ka to present. The chronologies of two stalagmites were constrained by 29 U-Th dates obtained through MC-ICP-MS analysis. Stable-isotope analysis at 0.5-mm resolution along the growth axes resulted in an average sampling frequency of 12.5 years. Stalagmite δ18O reflects multidecadal changes in the δ18O of winter half-year precipitation, which is highly sensitive to AO/NAO-like shifts in the strength and position of mid-latitude westerlies. Spectral density and wavelet analysis of the detrended record revealed significant periodicities near 2.4 ka, 1.4 ka, and 1.0 ka, which are common in northern hemispheric paleoclimate records and possibly related to solar and oceanic forcing during the Holocene. Coherent hemispheric coupling of continental and oceanic paleoclimate at suborbital timescales is demonstrated by comparison of our record with reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) and meridional flow strength in the North Atlantic sector. Specifically, SST at cores MD-23258 and LO09-14 in the Barents Sea and Reykjanes Ridge, respectively, exhibit opposite phasing during the Holocene, due to alternating strength between the eastern and western branches of the North Atlantic Current, a major component of AMOC. Estimating the SST gradient between these sites as a proxy for poleward heat transport to the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, we find a strong covariance with detrended stalagmite δ18O. This relationship suggests that persistent strengthening (weakening) of wintertime westerlies, analogous to positive (negative) phases of the AO/NAO, was forced by enhanced (reduced) poleward heat transport along the Norwegian Current. Our record complements existing reconstructions of Holocene AO/NAO variability and provides a paleoanalog for the oceanographic response to rapid melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet under modern anthropogenic warming.

Decomposing Shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Variability in Terms of Surface and Atmospheric Contributions Using CERES Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loeb, N. G.; Wong, T.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

Earth's climate is determined by the exchange of radiant energy between the Sun, Earth and space. The absorbed solar radiation (ASR) fuels the climate system, providing the energy required for atmospheric and oceanic motions, while the system cools by emitting outgoing longwave (LW) radiation to space. A central objective of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is to produce a long-term global climate data record of Earth's radiation budget along with the associated atmospheric and surface properties that influence it. CERES data products utilize a number of data sources, including broadband radiometers measuring incoming and reflected solar radiation and OLR, polar orbiting and geostationary spectral imagers, meteorological, aerosol and ozone assimilation data, and snow/sea-ice maps based on microwave radiometer data. Here we use simple diagnostic model of Earth's albedo and CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Ed4.0 data for March 2000-February 2016 to quantify interannual variations in SW TOA flux associated with surface albedo and atmospheric reflectance and transmittance variations. Surface albedo variations account for <0.5% of the total SW TOA flux variance over the tropics and 4% globally. Variations in atmospheric reflectance and transmittance account for virtually all of the total SW TOA flux variance over the tropics and only 81% globally. The remaining 15% of the global SW TOA flux variance is explained by the co-variance of surface albedo and atmospheric reflectance/transmittance. Equatorward of 60-degree latitude, the atmospheric contribution exceeds that of the surface by at least an order-of-magnitude. In contrast, the surface and atmospheric variations contribute equally poleward of 60S and surface variations account for twice as much as the atmosphere poleward of 60N. However, as much as 40% of the total SW TOA flux variance poleward of 60N is explained by the covariance of surface albedo and atmospheric reflectance/transmittance, highlighting the tight coupling between sea-ice concentration and cloud properties over the Arctic Ocean.

Observations of the southern East Madagascar Current and undercurrent and countercurrent system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauw, J. J.; van Aken, H. M.; Webb, A.; Lutjeharms, J. R. E.; de Ruijter, W. P. M.

2008-08-01

In April 2001 four hydrographic sections perpendicular to the southern East Madagascar Current were surveyed as part of the Agulhas Current Sources Experiment. Observations with a vessel mounted and a lowered ADCP produced information on the current field while temperature, salinity, oxygen and nutrient data obtained with a CTD-Rosette system, gave information on the water mass structure of the currents southeast of Madagascar. The peak velocity in the pole-ward East Madagascar Current through these four sections had a typical magnitude of ˜110 cm/s, while the width of this current was of the order of 120 km. The mean pole-ward volume transport rate of this current during the survey above the 5°C isotherm was estimated to be 37 ± 10 Sv. On all four sections an undercurrent was observed at intermediate depths below the East Madagascar Current. Its equator-ward transport rate amounted to 2.8 ± 1.4 Sv. Offshore of the East Madagascar Current the shallow South Indian Ocean Countercurrent was observed. This eastward frontal jet coincided with the barotropic and thermohaline front that separates the saline Subtropical Surface Water from the fresher Tropical Surface Water in the East Madagascar Current. The near-surface geostrophic flow of the East Madagascar Current, derived from satellite altimetry data from 1992 to 2005, suggests a strong variability of this transport due to eddy variability and interannual changes. The long-term pole-ward mean transport of the East Madagascar Current, roughly estimated from those altimetry data amounts to 32 Sv. The upper-ocean water mass of the East Madagascar Current was very saline in 2001, compared to WOCE surveys from 1995. Comparison of our undercurrent data with those of the WOCE surveys in 1995 confirms that the undercurrent is a recurrent feature. Its water mass properties are relatively saline, due to the presence of water originating from the Red Sea outflow at intermediate levels. The saline water was advected from the Mozambique Channel to the eastern slope of Madagascar.

Development of a multi-sensor elevation time series pole-ward of 86°S in support of altimetry validation and ice sheet mass balance studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Studinger, M.; Brunt, K. M.; Casey, K.; Medley, B.; Neumann, T.; Manizade, S.; Linkswiler, M. A.

2015-12-01

In order to produce a cross-calibrated long-term record of ice-surface elevation change for input into ice sheet models and mass balance studies it is necessary to "link the measurements made by airborne laser altimeters, satellite measurements of ICESat, ICESat-2, and CryoSat-2" [IceBridge Level 1 Science Requirements, 2012] and determine the biases and the spatial variations between radar altimeters and laser altimeters using different wavelengths. The convergence zones of all ICESat tracks (86°S) and all ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2 tracks (88°S) are in regions of relatively low accumulation, making them ideal for satellite altimetry calibration. In preparation for ICESat-2 validation, the IceBridge and ICESat-2 science teams have designed IceBridge data acquisitions around 86°S and 88°S. Several aspects need to be considered when comparing and combining elevation measurements from different radar and laser altimeters, including: a) foot print size and spatial sampling pattern; b) accuracy and precision of each data sets; c) varying signal penetration into the snow; and d) changes in geodetic reference frames over time, such as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). The presentation will focus on the analysis of several IceBridge flights around 86 and 88°S with the LVIS and ATM airborne laser altimeters and will evaluate the accuracy and precision of these data sets. To properly interpret the observed elevation change (dh/dt) as mass change, however, the various processes that control surface elevation fluctuations must be quantified and therefore future work will quantify the spatial variability in snow accumulation rates pole-ward of 86°S and in particular around 88°S. Our goal is to develop a cross-validated multi-sensor time series of surface elevation change pole-ward of 86°S that, in combination with measured accumulation rates, will support ICESat-2 calibration and validation and ice sheet mass balance studies.

An Analysis of Factors Affecting Genotyping Success from Museum Specimens Reveals an Increase of Genetic and Morphological Variation during a Historical Range Expansion of a European Spider

PubMed Central

Krehenwinkel, Henrik; Pekar, Stano

2015-01-01

Natural history collections house an enormous amount of plant and animal specimens, which constitute a promising source for molecular analyses. Storage conditions differ among taxa and can have a dramatic effect on the success of DNA work. Here, we analyze the feasibility of DNA extraction from ethanol preserved spiders (Araneae). We tested genotyping success using several hundred specimens of the wasp spider, Argiope bruennichi, deposited in two large German natural history collections. We tested the influence of different factors on the utility of specimens for genotyping. Our results show that not the specimen’s age, but the museum collection is a major predictor of genotyping success. These results indicate that long term storage conditions should be optimized in natural history museums to assure the utility of collections for DNA work. Using historical material, we also traced historical genetic and morphological variation in the course of a poleward range expansion of A. bruennichi by comparing contemporary and historical specimens from a native and an invasive population in Germany. We show that the invasion of A. bruennichi is tightly correlated with an historical increase of genetic and phenotypic variation in the invasive population. PMID:26309219

Speeds of coronal mass ejections: SMM observations from 1980 and 1984-1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hundhausen, A. J.; Burkepile, J. T.; St. Cyr, O. C.

1994-01-01

The speeds of 936 features in 673 coronal mass ejections have been determined from trajectories observed with the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph in 1980 and 1984 to 1989. The distribution of observed speeds has a range (from 5th to 95th percentile) of 35 to 911 km/s; the average and median speeds are 349 and 285 km/s. The speed distributions of some selected classes of mass ejections are significantly different. For example, the speeds of 331 'outer loops' range from 80 to 1042 km/s; the average and median speeds for this class of ejections are 445 and 372 km/s. The speed distributions from each year of SMM observations show significant changes, with the annual average speeds varying from 157 (1984) to 458 km/s (1985). These variations are not simply related to the solar activity cycle; the annual averages from years near the sunspot maxima and minimum are not significantly different. The widths, latitudes, and speeds of mass ejections determined from the SMM observations are only weakly correlated. In particular, mass ejection speeds vary only slightly with the heliographic latitudes of the ejection. High-latitude ejections, which occur well poleward of the active latitudes, have speeds similar to active latitude ejections.

An Analysis of Factors Affecting Genotyping Success from Museum Specimens Reveals an Increase of Genetic and Morphological Variation during a Historical Range Expansion of a European Spider.

PubMed

Krehenwinkel, Henrik; Pekar, Stano

2015-01-01

Natural history collections house an enormous amount of plant and animal specimens, which constitute a promising source for molecular analyses. Storage conditions differ among taxa and can have a dramatic effect on the success of DNA work. Here, we analyze the feasibility of DNA extraction from ethanol preserved spiders (Araneae). We tested genotyping success using several hundred specimens of the wasp spider, Argiope bruennichi, deposited in two large German natural history collections. We tested the influence of different factors on the utility of specimens for genotyping. Our results show that not the specimen's age, but the museum collection is a major predictor of genotyping success. These results indicate that long term storage conditions should be optimized in natural history museums to assure the utility of collections for DNA work. Using historical material, we also traced historical genetic and morphological variation in the course of a poleward range expansion of A. bruennichi by comparing contemporary and historical specimens from a native and an invasive population in Germany. We show that the invasion of A. bruennichi is tightly correlated with an historical increase of genetic and phenotypic variation in the invasive population.

Spatial heterogeneity in ecologically important climate variables at coarse and fine scales in a high-snow mountain landscape.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Ettinger, Ailene K; Lundquist, Jessica D; Raleigh, Mark S; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke

2013-01-01

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.

Spatial Heterogeneity in Ecologically Important Climate Variables at Coarse and Fine Scales in a High-Snow Mountain Landscape

PubMed Central

Ford, Kevin R.; Ettinger, Ailene K.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Raleigh, Mark S.; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke

2013-01-01

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change. PMID:23762277

Photoperiod constraints on tree phenology, performance and migration in a warming world.

PubMed

Way, Danielle A; Montgomery, Rebecca A

2015-09-01

Increasing temperatures should facilitate the poleward movement of species distributions through a variety of processes, including increasing the growing season length. However, in temperate and boreal latitudes, temperature is not the only cue used by trees to determine seasonality, as changes in photoperiod provide a more consistent, reliable annual signal of seasonality than temperature. Here, we discuss how day length may limit the ability of tree species to respond to climate warming in situ, focusing on the implications of photoperiodic sensing for extending the growing season and affecting plant phenology and growth, as well as the potential role of photoperiod in controlling carbon uptake and water fluxes in forests. We also review whether there are patterns across plant functional types (based on successional strategy, xylem anatomy and leaf morphology) in their sensitivity to photoperiod that we can use to predict which species or groups might be more successful in migrating as the climate warms, or may be more successfully used for forestry and agriculture through assisted migration schemes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Naval Operations in an Ice-free Arctic Symposium, 17-18 April 2001

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-01

long wave pattern producing preferred regions of cyclonic storm activity and cyclogenesis. Finally, the current tendency of poleward- propagating ...change both ambient noise and acoustic 15 propagation . Wind-generated waves will make ambient noise in the central Arctic more typical of temperate oceans...Research (ONR), MEDEA , the Arctic Research Commission, and U.S. Coast Guard in which some of these national and strategic issues surrounding operations

Antarctic mesocyclone regimes from satellite and conventional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitch, Mark; Carleton, Andrew M.

1992-03-01

Mesoscale vortices in the Antarctic, poleward of 50°S, are examined in the synoptic context for the Ross Sea sector (100°E eastward to 80°W) for transition and winter months of 1988, using DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) thermal infrared (TIR) images. Mesoscale vortices are classified and tracked and the dominant characteristics, such as life span, speed of movement and preferred geographical locations of formation, are defined and discussed. A "superposed epoch" (compositing) method utilizing 1000 and 500mb height data identifies the dominant synoptic regimes in which mesoscale vortices tend to develop. This analysis indicates that during active or outbreak periods, a negative thickness anomaly ("cold pool") is located northeast of the Ross Sea, and mesoscale vortices tend to occur on the poleward side of that anomaly. In addition, an enhanced trough-ridge pattern is evident for the Ross Sea sector compared with the composite pattern for inactive, or dearth, periods. The active periods of mesoscale vortices appear to originate from Antarctica, possibly via the persistent katabatic outflows from the ice sheet, rather than from teleconnections to lower latitudes. Analysis of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data for the Ross Sea region supports this notion, at least for individual cases. Confirmation of these findings for the corresponding months of additional years is continuing.

The Importance of Planetary Rotation Period for Ocean Heat Transport

PubMed Central

Stevens, D.; Joshi, M.

2014-01-01

Abstract The climate and, hence, potential habitability of a planet crucially depends on how its atmospheric and ocean circulation transports heat from warmer to cooler regions. However, previous studies of planetary climate have concentrated on modeling the dynamics of atmospheres, while dramatically simplifying the treatment of oceans, which neglects or misrepresents the effect of the ocean in the total heat transport. Even the majority of studies with a dynamic ocean have used a simple so-called aquaplanet that has no continental barriers, which is a configuration that dramatically changes the ocean dynamics. Here, the significance of the response of poleward ocean heat transport to planetary rotation period is shown with a simple meridional barrier—the simplest representation of any continental configuration. The poleward ocean heat transport increases significantly as the planetary rotation period is increased. The peak heat transport more than doubles when the rotation period is increased by a factor of ten. There are also significant changes to ocean temperature at depth, with implications for the carbon cycle. There is strong agreement between the model results and a scale analysis of the governing equations. This result highlights the importance of both planetary rotation period and the ocean circulation when considering planetary habitability. Key Words: Exoplanet—Oceans—Rotation—Climate—Habitability. Astrobiology 14, 645–650. PMID:25041658

Shape Transformation of the Nuclear Envelope during Closed Mitosis.

PubMed

Zhu, Qian; Zheng, Fan; Liu, Allen P; Qian, Jin; Fu, Chuanhai; Lin, Yuan

2016-11-15

The nuclear envelope (NE) in lower eukaryotes such as Schizosaccharomyces pombe undergoes large morphology changes during closed mitosis. However, which physical parameters are important in governing the shape evolution of the NE, and how defects in the dividing chromosomes/microtubules are reflected in those parameters, are fundamental questions that remain unresolved. In this study, we show that improper separation of chromosomes in genetically deficient cells leads to membrane tethering or asymmetric division in contrast to the formation of two equal-sized daughter nuclei in wild-type cells. We hypothesize that the poleward force is transmitted to the nuclear membrane through its physical contact with the separated sister chromatids at the two spindle poles. A theoretical model is developed to predict the morphology evolution of the NE where key factors such as the work done by the poleward force and bending and surface energies stored in the membrane have been taken into account. Interestingly, the predicted phase diagram, summarizing the dependence of nuclear shape on the size of the load transmission regions, and the pole-to-pole distance versus surface area relationship all quantitatively agree well with our experimental observations, suggesting that this model captures the essential physics involved in closed mitosis. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Kinetochore Dynein Is Required for Chromosome Motion and Congression Independent of the Spindle Checkpoint

PubMed Central

Yang, Zhenye; Tulu, U. Serdar; Wadsworth, Patricia; Rieder, Conly L.

2008-01-01

Summary During mitosis, the motor molecule cytoplasmic dynein plays key direct and indirect roles in organizing microtubules (MTs) into a functional spindle. At this time, dynein is also recruited to kinetochores, but its role or roles at these organelles remain vague, partly because inhibiting dynein globally disrupts spindle assembly [1-4]. However, dynein can be selectively depleted from kinetochores by disruption of ZW10 [5], and recent studies with this approach conclude that kinetochore-associated dynein (KD) functions to silence the spindle-assembly checkpoint (SAC) [6]. Here we use dynein-antibody microinjection and the RNAi of ZW10 to explore the role of KD in chromosome behavior during mitosis in mammals. We find that depleting or inhibiting KD prevents the rapid poleward motion of attaching kinetochores but not kinetochore fiber (K fiber) formation. However, after kinetochores attach to the spindle, KD is required for stabilizing kinetochore MTs, which it probably does by generating tension on the kinetochore, and in its absence, chromosome congression is defective. Finally, depleting KD reduces the velocity of anaphase chromosome motion by ∼40%, without affecting the rate of poleward MT flux. Thus, in addition to its role in silencing the SAC, KD is important for forming and stabilizing K fibers and in powering chromosome motion. PMID:17509882

Local-time survey of plasma at low altitudes over the auroral zones.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, L. A.; Ackerson, K. L.

1972-01-01

Local-time survey of the low-energy proton and electron intensities precipitated into the earth's atmosphere over the auroral zones during periods of magnetic quiescence. This survey was constructed by selecting a typical individual satellite crossing of this region in each of eight local-time sectors from a large library of similar observations with the polar-orbiting satellite Injun 5. The trapping boundary for more-energetic electron intensities, E greater than 45 keV, was found to be a 'natural coordinate' for delineating the boundary between the two major types of lower-energy, 50 less than or equal to E less than or equal to 15,000 eV, electron precipitation commonly observed over the auroral zones at low altitudes. Poleward of this trapping boundary inverted 'V' electron precipitation bands are observed in all local-time sectors. These inverted 'V' electron bands in the evening and midnight sectors are typically more energetic and have greater latitudinal widths than their counterparts in the noon and morning sectors. In general, the main contributors to the electron energy influx into the earth's atmosphere over the auroral zones are the electron inverted 'V' precipitation poleward of the trapping boundary in late evening, the plasma-sheet electron intensities equatorward of this boundary in early morning, and both of these precipitation events near local midnight.

Horizontal Residual Mean Circulation: Evaluation of Spatial Correlations in Coarse Resolution Ocean Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; McDougall, T. J.

2016-02-01

Coarse resolution ocean models lack knowledge of spatial correlations between variables on scales smaller than the grid scale. Some researchers have shown that these spatial correlations play a role in the poleward heat flux. In order to evaluate the poleward transport induced by the spatial correlations at a fixed horizontal position, an equation is obtained to calculate the approximate transport from velocity gradients. The equation involves two terms that can be added to the quasi-Stokes streamfunction (based on temporal correlations) to incorporate the contribution of spatial correlations. Moreover, these new terms do not need to be parameterized and is ready to be evaluated by using model data directly. In this study, data from a high resolution ocean model have been used to estimate the accuracy of this HRM approach for improving the horizontal property fluxes in coarse-resolution ocean models. A coarse grid is formed by sub-sampling and box-car averaging the fine grid scale. The transport calculated on the coarse grid is then compared to the transport on original high resolution grid scale accumulated over a corresponding number of grid boxes. The preliminary results have shown that the estimate on coarse resolution grids roughly match the corresponding transports on high resolution grids.

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Latitudinal Transport of Angular Momentum by Cellular Flows Observed with MDI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Gilman, Peter A.; Beck, John G.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We have analyzed Doppler velocity images from the MDI instrument on SOHO to determine the latitudinal transport of angular momentum by the cellular photospheric flows. Doppler velocity images from 60-days in May to July of 1996 were processed to remove the p-mode oscillations, the convective blue shift, the axisymmetric flows, and any instrumental artifacts. The remaining cellular flows were examined for evidence of latitudinal angular momentum transport. Small cells show no evidence of any such transport. Cells the size of supergranules (30,000 km in diameter) show strong evidence for a poleward transport of angular momentum. This would be expected if supergranules are influenced by the Coriolis force, and if the cells are elongated in an east-west direction. We find good evidence for just such an east-west elongation of the supergranules. This elongation may be the result of differential rotation shearing the cellular structures. Data simulations of this effect support the conclusion that elongated supergranules transport angular momentum from the equator toward the poles, Cells somewhat larger than supergranules do not show evidence for this poleward transport. Further analysis of the data is planned to determine if the direction of angular momentum transport reverses for even larger cellular structures. The Sun's rapidly rotating equator must be maintained by such transport somewhere within the convection zone.

Unusual subauroral neutral wind disturbances during geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Erickson, P. J.; Holt, J. M.

2016-12-01

Under the influence of geomagnetic storms, general circulation of the global thermosphere undergoes substantial changes that vary with latitudes. High latitude heating processes establish pressure gradients both vertically and horizontally. The equatorward wind surge and the associated westward wind enhancement are a typical disturbance wind characteristic that affacts ionosphere and thermosphere dynamics at mid-, low, and equatorial latitudes. At subauroral latitudes, however, new observations of neutral wind disturbances show some "abnormal" (unusual) behaviors in responding to complicated ion-neutral coupling processes. During the 2015 St. Patrick's Day great geomagnetic storm, incoherent scatter radar measurements at Millstone Hill show the following salient variations: (1) oscillating meridional wind disturbances with the Traveling Atmosphere Disturbance (TAD) feature; (2) vertical wind signature; (3) pre-mindnight poleward wind surges. The latter two variations appear to be associated with strong ion-neutral interaction developed during the subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) presence. Strong frictional heating caused by the relative velocity between the ions with SAPS speed and the neutrals leads to appreciable thermospheric upperwelling. Strong westward ion drifts shown as SAPS also enhance the wseward neutral flow, which subsequently causes a poleward component of the meridional wind due to the Coriolis force. This paper will present these observations of the wind and discuss ion-neutral coupling effects associated with SAPS.

Investigations of the preferred modes of north Pacific jet variability, their downstream impacts, and tropical and extratropical precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, Kyle S.

Time extended EOF (TE-EOF) analysis is employed to examine the synoptic-scale evolution of the two leading modes of north Pacific jet stream variability, namely its zonal extension/retraction (TE-EOF 1) and the north/south shift of its exit region (TE-EOF 2). Composite analyses are constructed preceding and following peaks in the principal component associated with each of the two TE-EOFs, providing insight into the preferred evolutions of the north Pacific jet. Jet extension events are associated with an anomalous Gulf of Alaska cyclone, while jet retractions are associated with an anomalous ridge over the Aleutians. Similar but shifted upper level patterns are noted with the corresponding poleward/equatorward shifted jet phases, with the poleward (equatorward) shift of the jet exit region associated with anomalous low-level warmth (cold) over western North America. Such composites also suggest connections between certain phases of these leading modes of jet variability and deep convection in the tropics, a connection that has been challenging to physically diagnose in previous studies. The isentropic pressure depth measures the mass contained within an isentropic layer in a given grid column, enabling the tracking of mass exhausted by deep convection. The gradient of isentropic pressure depth is directly associated with the vertical geostrophic wind shear in that layer and thus provides a means to track the influence of convective mass flux on the evolution of the jet stream. A case study focused on the extreme North American warm episode of March 2012 demonstrates how positive pressure depth anomalies from a strong MJO event impact the jet stream over eastern Asia and drive a portion of the mid-latitude response that leads to the flow amplification and subsequent downstream warmth. This study demonstrates one way by which isentropic pressure depth can diagnose the impacts of tropical deep convection on the mid-latitude circulation. Using TE-EOFs, composites of isentropic pressure depth are constructed, to examine the evolution of pressure depth anomalies preceding each phase of the two leading modes of jet variability. In jet extension events, a large negative pressure depth anomaly in the 315-330 K isentropic layer and a positive pressure depth anomaly in the 340-355 K isentropic layer align north and south of the climatological jet exit region, respectively. A similar but opposite configuration is found in jet retraction events. During poleward shifted jet events, the configuration of pressure depth anomalies is comparable to that observed in jet extension events, but shifted poleward. Positive pressure depth anomalies in each set of events predominantly originate from either the Maritime Continent or East Asia and track along the climatological jet before impacting the exit region of the jet stream. Negative pressure depth anomalies have similar upstream origins before moving through the jet in a similar manner. These composite evolutions provide insight into the synoptic-scale evolutions that precede the preferred modes of jet variability, highlighting the influence of both mid-latitude weather systems and mass flux from tropical deep convection on North Pacific jet variability.

Storm track response to climate change: Insights from simulations using an idealized dry GCM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbengue, Cheikh; Schneider, Tapio

2013-04-01

The midlatitude storm tracks, where the most intense extratropical cyclones are found, are an important fixture in the general circulation. They are instrumental in balancing the Earth's heat, momentum, and moisture budgets and are responsible for the weather and climatic patterns over large regions of the Earth's surface. As a result, the midlatitude storm tracks are the subject of a considerable amount of scientific research to understand their response to global warming. This has produced the robust result showing that the storm tracks migrate poleward with global warming. However, the dynamical mechanisms responsible for this migration remain unclear. Our work seeks to broaden understanding of the dynamical mechanisms responsible for storm track migration. Competing mechanisms present in the comprehensive climate models often used to study storm track dynamics make it difficult to determine the primary mechanisms responsible for storm track migration. We are thus prompted to study storm track dynamics from a simplified and idealized framework, which enables the decoupling of mean temperature effects from the effects of static stability and of tropical from extratropical effects. Using a statistically zonally symmetric, dry general circulation model (GCM), we conduct a series of numerical simulations to help understand the storm track response to global mean temperatures and to the tropical convective static stability, which we can vary independently. We define storm tracks as regions of zonally and temporally averaged maxima of barotropic eddy kinetic energy (EKE). This storm track definition also allows us to use previously found scalings between the magnitude of bulk measures of mean available potential energy (MAPE) and EKE, to decompose MAPE, and to obtain some mechanistic understanding of the storm track response in our simulations. These simulations provide several insights, which enable us to extend upon existing theories on the mechanisms driving the poleward migration of the storm tracks. We demonstrate a poleward migration of the midlatitude storm tracks in dry atmospheres with fixed pole-equator temperature contrast and increasing radiative equilibrium mean temperature, without changes in convective static stability. We also show scalings between the location of maxima of surface MAPE and of barotropic EKE. In the simulations where we independently vary tropical convective static stability, we find a marked poleward migration of the storm tracks. However, our decomposition shows that meridional temperature gradients, and not static stability, determine the location and the intensity of the storm tracks. This suggests that although the storm tracks are sensitive to tropical convective static stability, it influences them indirectly. Furthermore, our simulations show that the storm tracks generally migrate in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley cell. Therefore, we hypothesize that it is possible that the Hadley cell provides the tropical-extratropical communication necessary to generate the storm track response to tropical convective static stability we observe in the simulations. The results contained herein could be used to supplement ongoing storm track research in moist atmospheres using comparatively more comprehensive GCMs to understand storm track dynamics in earth-like environments.

Large Enhancements in the O/N2 Ratio in the Evening Sector of the Winter Hemisphere During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, A. G.; Killeen, T. L.; Carignan, G. R.; Roble, R. G.

1995-01-01

In this paper, we have looked for enhancements of the O/N2 ratio in data measured by the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite in the middle latitudes of the winter hemisphere, based on a prediction that was made by the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/tonosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) that such increases occur. The NCAR-TIGCM predicts that these enhancements should be seen throughout the low latitude region and in many middle latitude locations, but that the enhancements in O/N2 are particularly strong in the middle-latitude, evening-to-midnight sector of the winter hemisphere. When this prediction was used to look for these effects in DE 2 NACS (neutral atmosphere composition spectrometer) data, large enhancements in the O/N2 ratio (approx. 50 to 90%) were seen. These enhancements were observed during the main phase of a storm that occurred on November 24, 1982, and were seen in the same region of the winter hemisphere predicted by the NCAR-TIGCM. They are partially the result of the depletion of N2 and, as electron loss is dependent on dissociative recombination at F(sub 2) altitudes, they have implications for electron densities in this area. Parcel trajectories, which have been followed through the NCAR-TIGCM history file for this event, show that large O/N2 enhancements occur in this limited region in the winter hemisphere for two reasons. First, these parcels of air are decelerated by the antisunward edge of the ion convection pattern; individual parcels converge and subsidence occurs. Thus molecular-nitrogen-poor air is brought from higher to lower heights. Because neutral parcels that are found a little poleward of the equatorial edge of the eveningside convection pattern are swept inward toward the center of the auroral oval, the enhancements occur only in a very limited range of latitudes. Second, nitrogen-poor air is transported from regions close to the magnetic pole in the winter hemisphere. During geomagnetic storms, enhanced meridional winds are driven by the increased pressure-gradient force that is associated with intensified Joule heating in the auroral oval. These pressure-driven winds decrease rapidly on the dayside beyond the auroral oval where the parcels originate, limiting the region into which the parcels can be transported. Thus these two processes drive values of O/N2 in a limited region of the winter hemisphere, and reinforce only in the evening sector, causing large changes in this region.

Biomass burning influence on high latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, S. R.; Emmons, L. K.; Monks, S. A.; Law, K. S.; Ridley, D. A.; Turquety, S.; Tilmes, S.; Thomas, J. L.; Bouarar, I.; Flemming, J.; Huijnen, V.; Mao, J.; Duncan, B. N.; Steenrod, S.; Yoshida, Y.; Langner, J.; Long, Y.

2014-09-01

We have evaluated tropospheric ozone enhancement in air dominated by biomass burning emissions at high laititudes (> 50˚ N) in July 2008, using 10 global chemical transport model simulations from the POLMIP multi-model comparison exercise. In model air masses dominated by fire emissions, Δ O3/ΔCO values ranged between 0.039 and 0.196 ppbv ppbv-1 (mean: 0.113 ppbv ppbv-1) in freshly fire-influenced air, and between 0.140 and 0.261 ppbv ppbv-1 (mean: 0.193 ppbv) in more aged fire-influenced air. These values are in broad agreement with the range of observational estimates from the literature. Model ΔPAN/ΔCO enhancement ratios show distinct groupings according to the meteorological data used to drive the models. ECMWF-forced models produce larger ΔPAN/ΔCO values (4.44-6.28 pptv ppbv-1) than GEOS5-forced models (2.02-3.02 pptv ppbv-1), which we show is likely linked to differences efficiency of vertical transport during poleward export from mid-latitude source regions. Simulations of a large plume of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions exported from Asia towards the Arctic using a Lagrangian chemical transport model show that 4 day net ozone change in the plume is sensitive to differences in plume chemical composition and plume vertical position among the POLMIP models. In particular, Arctic ozone evolution in the plume is highly sensitive to initial concentrations of PAN, as well as oxygenated VOCs (acetone, acetaldehyde), due to their role in producing the peroxyacetyl radical PAN precursor. Vertical displacement is also important due to its effects on the stability of PAN, and subsequent effect on NOx abundance. In plumes where net ozone production is limited, we find that the lifetime of ozone in the plume is sensitive to hydrogen peroxide loading, due to the production of HO2 from peroxide photolysis, and the key role of HO2 + O3 in controlling ozone loss. Overall, our results suggest that emissions from biomass burning lead to large-scale photochemical enhancement in high latitude tropospheric ozone during summer.

Biomass burning influence on high-latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, S. R.; Emmons, L. K.; Monks, S. A.; Law, K. S.; Ridley, D. A.; Turquety, S.; Tilmes, S.; Thomas, J. L.; Bouarar, I.; Flemming, J.; Huijnen, V.; Mao, J.; Duncan, B. N.; Steenrod, S.; Yoshida, Y.; Langner, J.; Long, Y.

2015-06-01

We have evaluated tropospheric ozone enhancement in air dominated by biomass burning emissions at high latitudes (> 50° N) in July 2008, using 10 global chemical transport model simulations from the POLMIP multi-model comparison exercise. In model air masses dominated by fire emissions, ΔO3/ΔCO values ranged between 0.039 and 0.196 ppbv ppbv-1 (mean: 0.113 ppbv ppbv-1) in freshly fire-influenced air, and between 0.140 and 0.261 ppbv ppbv-1 (mean: 0.193 ppbv) in more aged fire-influenced air. These values are in broad agreement with the range of observational estimates from the literature. Model ΔPAN/ΔCO enhancement ratios show distinct groupings according to the meteorological data used to drive the models. ECMWF-forced models produce larger ΔPAN/ΔCO values (4.47 to 7.00 pptv ppbv-1) than GEOS5-forced models (1.87 to 3.28 pptv ppbv-1), which we show is likely linked to differences in efficiency of vertical transport during poleward export from mid-latitude source regions. Simulations of a large plume of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions exported from towards the Arctic using a Lagrangian chemical transport model show that 4-day net ozone change in the plume is sensitive to differences in plume chemical composition and plume vertical position among the POLMIP models. In particular, Arctic ozone evolution in the plume is highly sensitive to initial concentrations of PAN, as well as oxygenated VOCs (acetone, acetaldehyde), due to their role in producing the peroxyacetyl radical PAN precursor. Vertical displacement is also important due to its effects on the stability of PAN, and subsequent effect on NOx abundance. In plumes where net ozone production is limited, we find that the lifetime of ozone in the plume is sensitive to hydrogen peroxide loading, due to the production of HOx from peroxide photolysis, and the key role of HO2 + O3 in controlling ozone loss. Overall, our results suggest that emissions from biomass burning lead to large-scale photochemical enhancement in high-latitude tropospheric ozone during summer.

Southern high latitude dune fields on Mars: Morphology, aeolian inactivity, and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenton, L.K.; Hayward, R.K.

2010-01-01

In a study area spanning the martian surface poleward of 50?? S., 1190 dune fields have been identified, mapped, and categorized based on dune field morphology. Dune fields in the study area span ??? 116400km2, leading to a global dune field coverage estimate of ???904000km2, far less than that found on Earth. Based on distinct morphological features, the dune fields were grouped into six different classes that vary in interpreted aeolian activity level from potentially active to relatively inactive and eroding. The six dune field classes occur in specific latitude zones, with a sequence of reduced activity and degradation progressing poleward. In particular, the first signs of stabilization appear at ???60?? S., which broadly corresponds to the edge of high concentrations of water-equivalent hydrogen content (observed by the Neutron Spectrometer) that have been interpreted as ground ice. This near-surface ground ice likely acts to reduce sand availability in the present climate state on Mars, stabilizing high latitude dunes and allowing erosional processes to change their morphology. As a result, climatic changes in the content of near-surface ground ice are likely to influence the level of dune activity. Spatial variation of dune field classes with longitude is significant, suggesting that local conditions play a major role in determining dune field activity level. Dune fields on the south polar layered terrain, for example, appear either potentially active or inactive, indicating that at least two generations of dune building have occurred on this surface. Many dune fields show signs of degradation mixed with crisp-brinked dunes, also suggesting that more than one generation of dune building has occurred since they originally formed. Dune fields superposed on early and late Amazonian surfaces provide potential upper age limits of ???100My on the south polar layered deposits and ???3Ga elsewhere at high latitudes. No craters are present on any identifiable dune fields, which can provide a lower age limit through crater counting: assuming all relatively stabilized dune fields represent a single noncontiguous surface of uniform age, their estimated crater retention age is

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.