Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

PubMed

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Thoughts About Health Policy Content in Baccalaureate Nursing Programs.

PubMed

Waddell, Ashley; Adams, Jeffrey M; Fawcett, Jacqueline

2016-10-01

We describe a framework used to analyze health policy content in baccalaureate nursing program courses that combines the conceptual model for nursing and health policy and the Adams influence model to account for knowledge and skills needed for health policy work. Our analysis of health policy content in courses in one baccalaureate nursing program focused on what policies were emphasized and how educational content supported the development of personal influence. The analysis revealed course content focused on public sources of health policies and lack of overt course content about policies from organizational and professional sources. Additionally, we identified little course content about the development of personal influence skills except for communication and message articulation components. As the nursing profession continues to build influence in the policy arena, educators must continue to prepare future nurses for such work. © The Author(s) 2016.

Evidence-informed policy formulation and implementation: a comparative case study of two national policies for improving health and social care in Sweden.

PubMed

Strehlenert, H; Richter-Sundberg, L; Nyström, M E; Hasson, H

2015-12-08

Evidence has come to play a central role in health policymaking. However, policymakers tend to use other types of information besides research evidence. Most prior studies on evidence-informed policy have focused on the policy formulation phase without a systematic analysis of its implementation. It has been suggested that in order to fully understand the policy process, the analysis should include both policy formulation and implementation. The purpose of the study was to explore and compare two policies aiming to improve health and social care in Sweden and to empirically test a new conceptual model for evidence-informed policy formulation and implementation. Two concurrent national policies were studied during the entire policy process using a longitudinal, comparative case study approach. Data was collected through interviews, observations, and documents. A Conceptual Model for Evidence-Informed Policy Formulation and Implementation was developed based on prior frameworks for evidence-informed policymaking and policy dissemination and implementation. The conceptual model was used to organize and analyze the data. The policies differed regarding the use of evidence in the policy formulation and the extent to which the policy formulation and implementation phases overlapped. Similarities between the cases were an emphasis on capacity assessment, modified activities based on the assessment, and a highly active implementation approach relying on networks of stakeholders. The Conceptual Model for Evidence-Informed Policy Formulation and Implementation was empirically useful to organize the data. The policy actors' roles and functions were found to have a great influence on the choices of strategies and collaborators in all policy phases. The Conceptual Model for Evidence-Informed Policy Formulation and Implementation was found to be useful. However, it provided insufficient guidance for analyzing actors involved in the policy process, capacity-building strategies, and overlapping policy phases. A revised version of the model that includes these aspects is suggested.

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

PubMed

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagos, Ricardo; Wright, Randall

2005-01-01

Search-theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential. However, tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis. We propose a new framework, based on explicit micro foundations, within which macro…

Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

Treesearch

P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

1987-01-01

TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-04

China as a Model for Development. May 11, 2004. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis Congressional Research Service 23 Industrial...72 Mika Marumoto, “North Korea and the China Model : The Switch from Hostility to Acquiescence,” Academic...see Mika Marumoto. North Korea and the China Model : The Switch from Hostility to Acquiescence . Korea Economic Institute. Academic Paper Series, Vol

Modeling of materials supply, demand and prices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The societal, economic, and policy tradeoffs associated with materials processing and utilization, are discussed. The materials system provides the materials engineer with the system analysis required for formulate sound materials processing, utilization, and resource development policies and strategies. Materials system simulation and modeling research program including assessments of materials substitution dynamics, public policy implications, and materials process economics was expanded. This effort includes several collaborative programs with materials engineers, economists, and policy analysts. The technical and socioeconomic issues of materials recycling, input-output analysis, and technological change and productivity are examined. The major thrust areas in materials systems research are outlined.

School Health Promotion Policies and Adolescent Risk Behaviors in Israel: A Multilevel Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tesler, Riki; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Baron-Epel, Orna

2016-01-01

Background: Health promotion policies targeting risk-taking behaviors are being implemented across schools in Israel. This study identified the most effective components of these policies influencing cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption among adolescents. Methods: Logistic hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis of data for 5279 students in…

Policy Analysis Implications of a Model to Improve the Delivery of Financial Aid to Disadvantaged Students. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fenske, Robert H.; Porter, John D.

The role of institutional research in policy analysis regarding the operation of a computer model for delivery of financial aid to disadvantaged students is considered. A student financial aid model at Arizona State University is designed to develop a profile of late appliers for aid funds and also those who file inaccurate or incomplete…

Collection Development Policies in Community College Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mesling, Chris Fowler

2003-01-01

Emphasizes the need for collection development policy in community college academic libraries. Highlights areas of resource sharing, community analysis, and collection assessment. Also provides an overview of how to create a collection for development policy, and recommends books on writing such policy. Includes model policy statements. (NB)

A Model for Good Governance of Healthcare Technology Management in the Public Sector: Learning from Evidence-Informed Policy Development and Implementation in Benin

PubMed Central

Houngbo, P. Th.; Zweekhorst, M.; De Cock Buning, Tj.; Medenou, D.; Bunders, J. F. G.

2017-01-01

Good governance (GG) is an important concept that has evolved as a set of normative principles for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to strengthen the functional capacity of their public bodies, and as a conditional prerequisite to receive donor funding. Although much is written on good governance, very little is known on how to implement it. This paper documents the process of developing a strategy to implement a GG model for Health Technology Management (HTM) in the public health sector, based on lessons learned from twenty years of experience in policy development and implementation in Benin. The model comprises six phases: (i) preparatory analysis, assessing the effects of previous policies and characterizing the HTM system; (ii) stakeholder identification and problem analysis, making explicit the perceptions of problems by a diverse range of actors, and assessing their ability to solve these problems; (iii) shared analysis and visioning, delineating the root causes of problems and hypothesizing solutions; (iv) development of policy instruments for pilot testing, based on quick-win solutions to understand the system’s responses to change; (v) policy development and validation, translating the consensus solutions identified by stakeholders into a policy; and (vi) policy implementation and evaluation, implementing the policy through a cycle of planning, action, observation and reflection. The policy development process can be characterized as bottom-up, with a central focus on the participation of diverse stakeholders groups. Interactive and analytical tools of action research were used to integrate knowledge amongst actor groups, identify consensus solutions and develop the policy in a way that satisfies criteria of GG. This model could be useful for other LMICs where resources are constrained and the majority of healthcare technologies are imported. PMID:28056098

Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

2018-03-01

Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

Applying the take-grant protection model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bishop, Matt

1990-01-01

The Take-Grant Protection Model has in the past been used to model multilevel security hierarchies and simple protection systems. The models are extended to include theft of rights and sharing information, and additional security policies are examined. The analysis suggests that in some cases the basic rules of the Take-Grant Protection Model should be augmented to represent the policy properly; when appropriate, such modifications are made and their efforts with respect to the policy and its Take-Grant representation are discussed.

State Size and Government Level Matter Most: A Structural Equation Model of Local Health Department Policy Behaviors.

PubMed

Meyerson, Beth E; Sayegh, M Aaron

2016-01-01

To explore relationships between local health department policy behaviors, levels of government activity, policy focus areas, and selected health department characteristics. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from the 2013 National Association of County & City Health Officials (NACCHO) Profile Survey. Local health departments throughout the United States. A total of 2000 local health departments responding to the 2013 Profile Survey of Local Health Departments. Survey data were gathered by the NACCHO. Secondary analysis of reported policy behaviors for the 2013 NACCHO Profile Survey. A structural equation model tested effects on and between state population size, rurality, census region and policy focus, and the latent variables of policy behavior formed from a confirmatory factor analysis. Policy behaviors, levels of government activity (local, state, and federal), policy focus areas, and selected local health department characteristics. The majority (85.1%) of health departments reported at least one of the possible policy behaviors. State population size increased the probability of local policy behavior, and local behavior increased the probability of state policy behavior. State size increased the likelihood of federal policy behavior and the focus on tobacco, emergency preparedness, and obesity/chronic disease. However, the more rural a state was, the more likely policy behavior was at the state and federal levels and not at local levels. Specific policy behaviors mattered less than the level of government activity. Size of state and rurality of health departments influence the government level of policy behavior.

A Multiple Streams analysis of the decisions to fund gender-neutral HPV vaccination in Canada.

PubMed

Shapiro, Gilla K; Guichon, Juliet; Prue, Gillian; Perez, Samara; Rosberger, Zeev

2017-07-01

In Canada, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is licensed and recommended for females and males. Although all Canadian jurisdictions fund school-based HPV vaccine programs for girls, only six jurisdictions fund school-based HPV vaccination for boys. The research aimed to analyze the factors that underpin government decisions to fund HPV vaccine for boys using a theoretical policy model, Kingdon's Multiple Streams framework. This approach assesses policy development by examining three concurrent, but independent, streams that guide analysis: Problem Stream, Policy Stream, and Politics Stream. Analysis from the Problem Stream highlights that males are affected by HPV-related diseases and are involved in transmitting HPV infection to their sexual partners. Policy Stream analysis makes clear that while the inclusion of males in HPV vaccine programs is suitable, equitable, and acceptable; there is debate regarding cost-effectiveness. Politics Stream analysis identifies the perspectives of six different stakeholder groups and highlights the contribution of government officials at the provincial and territorial level. Kingdon's Multiple Streams framework helps clarify the opportunities and barriers for HPV vaccine policy change. This analysis identified that the interpretation of cost-effectiveness models and advocacy of stakeholders such as citizen-advocates and HPV-affected politicians have been particularly important in galvanizing policy change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

I PASS: an interactive policy analysis simulation system.

Treesearch

Doug Olson; Con Schallau; Wilbur Maki

1984-01-01

This paper describes an interactive policy analysis simulation system(IPASS) that can be used to analyze the long-term economic and demographic effects of alternative forest resource management policies. The IPASS model is a dynamic analytical tool that forecasts growth and development of an economy. It allows the user to introduce changes in selected parameters based...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst

The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticismmore » related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.« less

Bioeconomic and market models

Treesearch

Richard Haynes; Darius Adams; Peter Ince; John Mills; Ralph Alig

2006-01-01

The United States has a century of experience with the development of models that describe markets for forest products and trends in resource conditions. In the last four decades, increasing rigor in policy debates has stimulated the development of models to support policy analysis. Increasingly, research has evolved (often relying on computer-based models) to increase...

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Helping Health Care Providers and Clinical Scientists Understand Apparently Irrational Policy Decisions.

PubMed

Demeter, Sandor J

2016-12-21

Health care providers (HCP) and clinical scientists (CS) are generally most comfortable using evidence-based rational decision-making models. They become very frustrated when policymakers make decisions that, on the surface, seem irrational and unreasonable. However, such decisions usually make sense when analysed properly. The goal of this paper to provide a basic theoretical understanding of major policy models, to illustrate which models are most prevalent in publicly funded health care systems, and to propose a policy analysis framework to better understand the elements that drive policy decision-making. The proposed policy framework will also assist HCP and CS achieve greater success with their own proposals.

An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2005

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-03-01

productivity —which represents the state of technological know-how. The model is not forward-looking—people base their decisions entirely on...Bottles: A Meta-Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence,” Southern Economic Journal, vol. 64, no. 3 (January 1998), pp. 713-727. APPENDIX B THE MODELS ...Under the President’s Budget and UnderCBO’s Baseline Policy Assumptions 25How Fiscal Policy Affects the Economy 28 A Description of CBO’s Models and

Impacts analysis of car following models considering variable vehicular gap policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Qi; Yang, Nan; Fu, Rui; Yu, Shaowei; Shi, Zhongke

2018-07-01

Due to the important roles playing in the vehicles' adaptive cruise control system, variable vehicular gap polices were employed to full velocity difference model (FVDM) to investigate the traffic flow properties. In this paper, two new car following models were put forward by taking constant time headway(CTH) policy and variable time headway(VTH) policy into optimal velocity function, separately. By steady state analysis of the new models, an equivalent optimal velocity function was defined. To determine the linear stable conditions of the new models, we introduce equivalent expressions of safe vehicular gap, and then apply small amplitude perturbation analysis and long terms of wave expansion techniques to obtain the new models' linear stable conditions. Additionally, the first order approximate solutions of the new models were drawn at the stable region, by transforming the models into typical Burger's partial differential equations with reductive perturbation method. The FVDM based numerical simulations indicate that the variable vehicular gap polices with proper parameters directly contribute to the improvement of the traffic flows' stability and the avoidance of the unstable traffic phenomena.

Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-01

A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

Kernel-Based Approximate Dynamic Programming Using Bellman Residual Elimination

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

framework is the ability to utilize stochastic system models, thereby allowing the system to make sound decisions even if there is randomness in the system ...approximate policy when a system model is unavailable. We present theoretical analysis of all BRE algorithms proving convergence to the optimal policy in...policies based on MDPs is that there may be parameters of the system model that are poorly known and/or vary with time as the system operates. System

Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

PubMed

Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

2016-02-01

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Policy impacts estimates are sensitive to data selection in empirical analysis: evidence from the United States – Canada softwood lumber trade dispute

Treesearch

Daowei Zhang; Rajan Parajuli

2016-01-01

In this paper, we use the U.S. softwood lumber import demand model as a case study to show that the effects of past trade policies are sensitive to the data sample used in empirical analyses.  We conclude that, to be consistent with the purpose of analysis of policy and to ensure all else being equal, policy impacts can only be judged by using data up to the time when...

Towards an empowerment approach in tuberculosis treatment in Cape Town, South Africa: a qualitative analysis of programmatic change

PubMed Central

Atkins, Salla; Lewin, Simon; Ringsberg, Karin C.; Thorson, Anna

2012-01-01

Background Tuberculosis rates in the world remain high, especially in low- and middle-income countries. International tuberculosis (TB) policy generally recommends the use of directly observed therapy (DOT) to ensure treatment adherence. Objective This article examines a change in TB treatment support that occurred in 2005 in South Africa, from DOT to the enhanced TB adherence programme (ETA). Design Seven key individuals representing academics, policy makers and service providers involved in the development of the ETA programme or knowledgeable about the issue were purposively sampled and interviewed, and participant observation was conducted at ETA programme steering group meetings. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the data, drawing on the Kingdon model of agenda setting. This model suggests that three independent streams – problem, policy and politics – come together at a certain point, often facilitated by policy entrepreneurs, to provide an opportunity for an issue to enter the policy agenda. Results The results suggest the empowerment-oriented programme emerged through the presence of policy entrepreneurs with access to resources. Policy entrepreneurs were influenced by a number of simultaneously occurring challenges including problems within the existing programme; a perceived mismatch between patient needs and the existing TB treatment model; and the TB-HIV co-epidemic. Policy entrepreneurs saw the ART approach as a possible solution to these challenges. Conclusions The Kingdon model contributed to describing the process of policy change. Research evidence seemed to influence this change diffusely, through the interaction of policy entrepreneurs and academics. PMID:22902052

A new decision sciences for complex systems.

PubMed

Lempert, Robert J

2002-05-14

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.

Public health policy research: making the case for a political science approach.

PubMed

Bernier, Nicole F; Clavier, Carole

2011-03-01

The past few years have seen the emergence of claims that the political determinants of health do not get due consideration and a growing demand for better insights into public policy analysis in the health research field. Several public health and health promotion researchers are calling for better training and a stronger research culture in health policy. The development of these studies tends to be more advanced in health promotion than in other areas of public health research, but researchers are still commonly caught in a naïve, idealistic and narrow view of public policy. This article argues that the political science discipline has developed a specific approach to public policy analysis that can help to open up unexplored levers of influence for public health research and practice and that can contribute to a better understanding of public policy as a determinant of health. It describes and critiques the public health model of policy analysis, analyzes political science's specific approach to public policy analysis, and discusses how the politics of research provides opportunities and barriers to the integration of political science's distinctive contributions to policy analysis in health promotion.

The impacts of renewable energy policies on renewable energy sources for electricity generating capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, Bryan Bonsuk

Electricity generation from non-hydro renewable sources has increased rapidly in the last decade. For example, Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) generating capacity in the U.S. almost doubled for the last three year from 2009 to 2012. Multiple papers point out that RES-E policies implemented by state governments play a crucial role in increasing RES-E generation or capacity. This study examines the effects of state RES-E policies on state RES-E generating capacity, using a fixed effects model. The research employs panel data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, for the period 1990 to 2011, and uses a two-stage approach to control endogeneity embedded in the policies adopted by state governments, and a Prais-Winsten estimator to fix any autocorrelation in the panel data. The analysis finds that Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Net-metering are significantly and positively associated with RES-E generating capacity, but neither Public Benefit Funds nor the Mandatory Green Power Option has a statistically significant relation to RES-E generating capacity. Results of the two-stage model are quite different from models which do not employ predicted policy variables. Analysis using non-predicted variables finds that RPS and Net-metering policy are statistically insignificant and negatively associated with RES-E generating capacity. On the other hand, Green Energy Purchasing policy is insignificant in the two-stage model, but significant in the model without predicted values.

Compulsory Birth Control and Fertility Measures in India.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halli, S. S.

1983-01-01

Discussion of possible applications of the microsimulation approach to analysis of population policy proposes compulsory sterilization policy for all of India. Topics covered include India's population problem, methods for generating a distribution of couples to be sterilized, model validation, data utilized, data analysis, program limitations,…

Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

2016-12-01

There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

Models of science-policy interaction: exploring approaches to Bisphenol A management in the EU.

PubMed

Udovyk, O

2014-07-01

This study investigated science-policy interaction models and their limitations under conditions of uncertainty. In detail, it looked at the management of the suspected endocrine-disrupting chemical Bisphenol A (BPA). Despite growing evidence that BPA is hazardous to human and environmental health, the level of scientific uncertainty is still high and, as a result, there is significant disagreement on the actual extent and type of risk. Analysis of decision-making processes at different regulatory levels (EU, Sweden, and the Swedish municipality of Gothenburg) exposed chemicals risk management and associated science-policy interaction under uncertainty. The results of the study show that chemicals management and associated science-policy interaction follow the modern model of science-policy interaction, where science is assumed to 'speak truth to policy' and highlights existing limitations of this model under conditions of uncertainty. The study not only explores alternative models (precautionary, consensus, science-policy demarcation. and extended participation) but also shows their limitations. The study concludes that all models come with their particular underlying assumptions, strengths, and limitations. At the same time, by exposing serious limitations of the modern model, the study calls for a rethinking of the relationship between science, policy, and management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Educational Futures. Resolving Uncertainties and Disagreements through Compact Policy Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Barclay M.

Descriptions of models for policy analysis in future studies are presented. Separate sections of the paper focus on the need for appropriate technologies of social science in future studies, a description of "compact policy assessment" (CPA), and a comparison of two CPA methods, Compass and Delphi. Compact policy assessment refers to any low-cost,…

DISEASE RISK ANALYSIS--A TOOL FOR POLICY MAKING WHEN EVIDENCE IS LACKING: IMPORT OF RABIES-SUSCEPTIBLE ZOO MAMMALS AS A MODEL.

PubMed

Hartley, Matt; Roberts, Helen

2015-09-01

Disease control management relies on the development of policy supported by an evidence base. The evidence base for disease in zoo animals is often absent or incomplete. Resources for disease research in these species are limited, and so in order to develop effective policies, novel approaches to extrapolating knowledge and dealing with uncertainty need to be developed. This article demonstrates how qualitative risk analysis techniques can be used to aid decision-making in circumstances in which there is a lack of specific evidence using the import of rabies-susceptible zoo mammals into the United Kingdom as a model.

Using Enrollment Demand Models in Institutional Pricing Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiler, William C.

1984-01-01

Issues in the application of enrollment demand analysis to institutions' pricing policy are discussed, including price change impact on enrollment, the role of enrollment demand models on long-range financial and personnel planning, use of tuition and financial aid policy in optimizing policymakers' enrollment objectives, and the redistribution…

THE OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY FACILITY SITING MODEL. VOLUME II: SITES AND ON-LINE DATES

EPA Science Inventory

The report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. The siting model developed for ORBES is specifically designed for regional policy analysis. The region includes 423 counties in an area that consists of all ...

Maximizing Enrollment Yield through Financial Aid Packaging Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spaulding, Randy; Olswang, Steven

2005-01-01

Using institutional data, this paper presents a model to enable researchers and enrollment managers to assess the effectiveness of financial aid packaging policies in light of student characteristics and institutional market position. The model uses discriminant analysis and a series of hypothetical financial aid award scenarios to predict the…

Semantic Models of Host-Immigrant Relations in Norwegian Education Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garthus-Niegel, Kristian; Oppedal, Brit; Vike, Halvard

2016-01-01

Education has continuously been regarded as a vital tool in Norwegian policymakers' immigrant integration agendas. This study analyzes semantic structures substantiating the policy language of historical Norwegian immigrant education policies from their inception in 1973 until today (2013). The analysis is framed by Kronenfeld's linguistic…

Cost Sharing in Public Universities: A Kenyan Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodrigues, Anthony J.; Wandiga, Shem O.

1997-01-01

Presents an analysis of government policy on higher education finance in Kenya, outlines parameters of an appropriate tuition policy (cost recovery, equity, equal access, affordability, student loan program objectives), and provides a model for simulating loan program outcomes. Suggests several proposed policy and administrative reforms concerning…

Long-term care for older lesbian and bisexual women: an analysis of current research and policy.

PubMed

Grigorovich, Alisa

2013-01-01

The Canadian health care system's delivery and policies are often based on a heterosexual nuclear family model. Long-term care (LTC) policy in particular is built on specific assumptions about women and caregiving. Current health care and LTC policies can thus disadvantage and marginalize women who do not fit such constructions, such as older lesbian and bisexual women. Drawing from literature on lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender women's health, aging, and caregiving, this article uses a feminist political economy analysis to demonstrate that a gap exists in current research and policy with respect to the LTC needs of older lesbian and bisexual women.

An analysis of household waste management policy using system dynamics modelling.

PubMed

Inghels, Dirk; Dullaert, Wout

2011-04-01

This paper analyses the Flemish household waste management policy. Based on historical data from the period 1991-2006, literature reviews and interviews, both mathematical and descriptive relationships are derived that describe Flemish waste collection, reuse, recycling and disposal behaviour. This provides insights into how gross domestic product (GDP), population and selective collection behaviour have influenced household waste production and collection over time. These relationships are used to model the dynamic relationships underlying household waste management in Flanders by using a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach. Where most SD models in literature are conceptual and descriptive, in the present study a real-life case with both correlational and descriptive relationships was modelled for Flanders, a European region with an outstanding waste management track record. This model was used to evaluate the current Flemish household waste management policy based on the principles of the waste hierarchy, also referred as the Lansink ranking. The results show that Flemish household waste targets up to 2015 can be achieved by the current waste policy measures. It also shows the sensitivity of some key policy parameters such as prevention and reuse. Given the general nature of the model and its limited data requirements, the authors believe that the approach implemented in this model can also assist waste policy makers in other regions or countries to meet their policy targets by simulating the effect of their current and potential household waste policy measures.

[Health and indigenous peoples in Brazil: notes on some current policy mistakes].

PubMed

Cardoso, Marina Denise

2014-04-01

This article aims to analyze health policies for indigenous peoples in Brazil with reference to the 1988 National Constitution and its consequences for their healthcare. Three components are central to this analysis: the management model, based on the concepts of "autonomy" and "social control", but essentially expressing the forms of indigenous representation and participation in public policies; the concept of "differential care" for establishing an inclusive (but operationally normative) healthcare model; and the relationship between the management model for indigenous healthcare and indigenous therapeutic practices.

A modelling tool for policy analysis to support the design of efficient and effective policy responses for complex public health problems.

PubMed

Atkinson, Jo-An; Page, Andrew; Wells, Robert; Milat, Andrew; Wilson, Andrew

2015-03-03

In the design of public health policy, a broader understanding of risk factors for disease across the life course, and an increasing awareness of the social determinants of health, has led to the development of more comprehensive, cross-sectoral strategies to tackle complex problems. However, comprehensive strategies may not represent the most efficient or effective approach to reducing disease burden at the population level. Rather, they may act to spread finite resources less intensively over a greater number of programs and initiatives, diluting the potential impact of the investment. While analytic tools are available that use research evidence to help identify and prioritise disease risk factors for public health action, they are inadequate to support more targeted and effective policy responses for complex public health problems. This paper discusses the limitations of analytic tools that are commonly used to support evidence-informed policy decisions for complex problems. It proposes an alternative policy analysis tool which can integrate diverse evidence sources and provide a platform for virtual testing of policy alternatives in order to design solutions that are efficient, effective, and equitable. The case of suicide prevention in Australia is presented to demonstrate the limitations of current tools to adequately inform prevention policy and discusses the utility of the new policy analysis tool. In contrast to popular belief, a systems approach takes a step beyond comprehensive thinking and seeks to identify where best to target public health action and resources for optimal impact. It is concerned primarily with what can be reasonably left out of strategies for prevention and can be used to explore where disinvestment may occur without adversely affecting population health (or equity). Simulation modelling used for policy analysis offers promise in being able to better operationalise research evidence to support decision making for complex problems, improve targeting of public health policy, and offers a foundation for strengthening relationships between policy makers, stakeholders, and researchers.

Medicare Long-Term CPAP Coverage Policy: A Cost-Utility Analysis

PubMed Central

Billings, Martha E.; Kapur, Vishesh K.

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: CPAP is an effective treatment for OSA that may reduce health care utilization and costs. Medicare currently reimburses the costs of long-term CPAP therapy only if the patient is adherent during a 90-day trial. If not, Medicare requires a repeat polysomnogram (PSG) and another trial which seems empirically not cost-effective. We modeled the cost-effectiveness of current Medicare policy compared to an alternative policy (clinic-only) without the adherence criterion and repeat PSG. Design: Cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analysis. Setting: U.S. Medicare Population. Patients or Participants: N/A. Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: We created a decision tree modeling (1) clinic only follow-up vs. (2) current Medicare policy. Costs were assigned based on Medicare reimbursement rates in 2012. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test our assumptions. We estimated cumulative costs, overall adherence, and QALY gained for a 5-year time horizon from the perspective of Medicare as the payer. Current Medicare policy is more costly than the clinic-only policy but has higher net adherence and improved utility. Current Medicare policy compared to clinic-only policy costs $30,544 more per QALY. Conclusions: Current CMS policy promotes early identification of those more likely to adhere to CPAP therapy by requiring strict adherence standards. The policy effect is to deny coverage to those unlikely to use CPAP long-term and prevent wasted resources. Future studies are needed to measure long-term adherence in an elderly population with and without current adherence requirements to verify the cost-effectiveness of a policy change. Citation: Billings ME; Kapur VK. Medicare long-term CPAP coverage policy: a cost-utility analysis. J Clin Sleep Med 2013;9(10):1023-1029. PMID:24127146

Family Language Policies among Albanian Immigrants in Greece

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chatzidaki, Aspassia; Maligkoudi, Christina

2013-01-01

This article reports on an investigation of family language policies among 37 Albanian immigrant families in Northern Greece within the framework of Spolsky's language policy model. Data collection was based on semi-directed interviews with parents which were analysed using both content and discourse analysis. According to our findings, three…

Dynamic Systems Modeling in Educational System Design & Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groff, Jennifer Sterling

2013-01-01

Over the last several hundred years, local and national educational systems have evolved from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, policy-laden structures, to which many question their value, effectiveness, and direction they are headed. System Dynamics is a field of analysis used to guide policy and system design in…

Educational Quality, Outcomes Assessment, and Policy Change: The Virginia Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culver, Steve

2010-01-01

The higher education system in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States provides a case model for how discussions regarding educational quality and assessment of that quality have affected institutions' policy decisions and implementation. Using Levin's (1998) policy analysis framework, this essay explores how assessment of student…

Determining the privacy policy deficiencies of health ICT applications through semi-formal modelling.

PubMed

Croll, Peter R

2011-02-01

To ensure that patient confidentiality is securely maintained, health ICT applications that contain sensitive personal information demand comprehensive privacy policies. Determining the adequacy of these policies to meet legal conformity together with clinical users and patient expectation is demanding in practice. Organisations and agencies looking to analyse their Privacy and Security policies can benefit from guidance provided by outside entities such as the Privacy Office of their State or Government together with law firms and ICT specialists. The advice given is not uniform and often open to different interpretations. Of greater concern is the possibility of overlooking any important aspects that later result in a data breach. Based on three case studies, this paper considers whether a more formal approach to privacy analysis could be taken that would help identify the full coverage of a Privacy Impact Analysis and determine the deficiencies with an organisation's current policies and approach. A diagrammatic model showing the relationships between Confidentiality, Privacy, Trust, Security and Safety is introduced. First the validity of this model is determined by mapping it against the real-world case studies taken from three healthcare services that depend on ICT. Then, by using software engineering methods, a formal mapping of the relationships is undertaken to identify a full set of policies needed to satisfy the model. How effective this approach may prove as a generic method for deriving a comprehensive set of policies in health ICT applications is finally discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alyamani, Talal M.

Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the conflicting objectives of different stakeholders.

Tackling Health Inequalities in the United Kingdom: The Progress and Pitfalls of Policy

PubMed Central

Exworthy, Mark; Blane, David; Marmot, Michael

2003-01-01

Goal Assess the progress and pitfalls of current United Kingdom (U.K.) policies to reduce health inequalities. Objectives (1) Describe the context enabling health inequalities to get onto the policy agenda in the United Kingdom. (2) Categorize and assess selected current U.K. policies that may affect health inequalities. (3) Apply the “policy windows” model to understand the issues faced in formulating and implementing such policies. (4) Examine the emerging policy challenges in the U.K. and elsewhere. Data Sources Official documents, secondary analyses, and interviews with policymakers. Study Design Qualitative, policy analysis. Data Collection 2001–2002. The methods were divided into two stages. The first identified policies which were connected with individual inquiry recommendations. The second involved case-studies of three policies areas which were thought to be crucial in tackling health inequalities. Both stages involved interviews with policy-makers and documentary analysis. Principal Findings (1) The current U.K. government stated a commitment to reducing health inequalities. (2) The government has begun to implement policies that address the wider determinants. (3) Some progress is evident but many indicators remain stubborn. (4) Difficulties remain in terms of coordinating policies across government and measuring progress. (5) The “policy windows” model explains the limited extent of progress and highlights current and possible future pitfalls. (6) The U.K.'s experience has lessons for other governments involved in tackling health inequalities. Conclusions Health inequalities are on the agenda of U.K. government policy and steps have been made to address them. There are some signs of progress but much remains to be done including overcoming some of the perverse incentives at the national level, improving joint working, ensuring appropriate measures of performance/progress, and improving monitoring arrangements. A conceptual policy model aids understanding and points to ways of sustaining and extending the recent progress and overcoming pitfalls. PMID:14727803

Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

A modelling approach for the assessment of the effects of Common Agricultural Policy measures on farmland biodiversity in the EU27.

PubMed

Overmars, Koen P; Helming, John; van Zeijts, Henk; Jansson, Torbjörn; Terluin, Ida

2013-09-15

In this paper we describe a methodology to model the impacts of policy measures within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm production, income and prices, and on farmland biodiversity. Two stylised scenarios are used to illustrate how the method works. The effects of CAP measures, such as subsidies and regulations, are calculated and translated into changes in land use and land-use intensity. These factors are then used to model biodiversity with a species-based indicator on a 1 km scale in the EU27. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) is used to conduct the economic analysis and Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) is used to model land use changes. An indicator that expresses the relative species richness was used as the indicator for biodiversity in agricultural areas. The methodology is illustrated with a baseline scenario and two scenarios that include a specific policy. The strength of the methodology is that impacts of economic policy instruments can be linked to changes in agricultural production, prices and incomes, on the one hand, and to biodiversity effects, on the other - with land use and land-use intensity as the connecting drivers. The method provides an overall assessment, but for detailed impact assessment at landscape, farm or field level, additional analysis would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic Forecasting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

Socioeconomic forecasting.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

Policy modeling for industrial energy use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon

2003-03-01

The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. Inmore » this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the effects of innovative (no n-monetary) policy instruments through evaluation and to develop approaches to model both conventional and innovative policies. The explicit modeling of barriers and decision making in the models seems a promising way to enable modeling of conventional and innovative policies. A modular modeling approach is essential to not only provide transparency, but also to use the available resources most effectively and efficiently. Many large models have been developed in the past, but have been abandoned after only brief periods of use. A development path based on modular building blocks needs the establishment of a flexible but uniform modeling framework. The leadership of international agencies and organizations is essential in the establishment of such a framework. A preference is given for ''softlinks'' between different modules and models, to increase transparency and reduce complexity. There is a strong need to improve the efficiency of data collection and interpretation efforts to produce reliable model inputs. The workshop participants support the need for the establishment of an (in-)formal exchanges of information, as well as modeling approaches. The development of an informal network of research institutes and universities to help build a common dataset and exchange ideas on specific areas is proposed. Starting with an exchange of students would be a relative low-cost way to start such collaboration. It would be essential to focus on specific topics. It is also essential to maintain means of regular exchange of ideas between researchers in the different focus points.« less

Human growth and body weight dynamics: an integrative systems model.

PubMed

Rahmandad, Hazhir

2014-01-01

Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%-24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations.

Human Growth and Body Weight Dynamics: An Integrative Systems Model

PubMed Central

Rahmandad, Hazhir

2014-01-01

Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%–24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations. PMID:25479101

Organizational home care models across Europe: A cross sectional study.

PubMed

Van Eenoo, Liza; van der Roest, Henriëtte; Onder, Graziano; Finne-Soveri, Harriet; Garms-Homolova, Vjenka; Jonsson, Palmi V; Draisma, Stasja; van Hout, Hein; Declercq, Anja

2018-01-01

Decision makers are searching for models to redesign home care and to organize health care in a more sustainable way. The aim of this study is to identify and characterize home care models within and across European countries by means of structural characteristics and care processes at the policy and the organization level. At the policy level, variables that reflected variation in health care policy were included based on a literature review on the home care policy for older persons in six European countries: Belgium, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Italy, and the Netherlands. At the organizational level, data on the structural characteristics and the care processes were collected from 36 home care organizations by means of a survey. Data were collected between 2013 and 2015 during the IBenC project. An observational, cross sectional, quantitative design was used. The analyses consisted of a principal component analysis followed by a hierarchical cluster analysis. Fifteen variables at the organizational level, spread across three components, explained 75.4% of the total variance. The three components made it possible to distribute home care organizations into six care models that differ on the level of patient-centered care delivery, the availability of specialized care professionals, and the level of monitoring care performance. Policy level variables did not contribute to distinguishing between home care models. Six home care models were identified and characterized. These models can be used to describe best practices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic decision-making for reliability and maintenance analysis of manufacturing systems based on failure effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie

2017-09-01

A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.

Evaluation of Energy Policy Instruments for the Adoption of Renewable Energy: Case of Wind Energy in the Pacific Northwest U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abotah, Remal

The wide use of renewable energy technologies for generating electricity can be seen as one way of meeting environmental and climate change challenges along with a progression to a low-carbon economy. A large number of policy instruments have been formed and employed to support the adoption of renewable energy technologies in the power generation sector. However, the success of these policies in achieving their goals relies on how effective they are in satisfying their targets and thus increasing renewable energy adoption. One measurement for effectiveness of policy instruments can be their contribution to the input of the process of renewable energy adoption and their effect on satisfying regional goal. The objective of this research is evaluate the effectiveness of energy policy instruments on increasing the adoption of renewable energy by developing a comprehensive evaluation model. Criteria used in this assessment depend on five perspectives that are perceived by decision makers as important for adoption process. The decision model linked the perspectives to policy targets and various energy policy instruments. These perspectives are: economic, social, political, environmental and technical. The research implemented the hierarchical decision model (HDM) to construct a generalized policy assessment framework. Data for wind energy adoption in the Pacific Northwest region were collected as a case study and application for the model. Experts' qualitative judgments were collected and quantified using the pair-wise comparison method and the final rankings and effectiveness of policy alternatives with respect to the mission were identified. Results of this research identified economic feasibility improvement of renewable energy projects as the most influential perspective and that renewable portfolio standards and tax credits are the two most effective criteria to accomplish that. The research also applied sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis to identify the effect of regional perspectives future priority changes on determining the most effective policy for this perspective. Results showed that renewable portfolio standards and tax credits were found to be the two most effective policies among the alternatives assessed. The research model and outcome can serve as policy check tool in policy making for renewable energy development in any region. Based on the overall research findings, policymakers can apply specific policy instruments to support adoption efforts for any given scenario and regional emphasis.

The alcohol policy environment, enforcement and consumption in the United States.

PubMed

Erickson, Darin J; Lenk, Kathleen M; Toomey, Traci L; Nelson, Toben F; Jones-Webb, Rhonda

2016-01-01

Many studies of alcohol policies examine the presence or absence of a single policy without considering policy strength or enforcement. We developed measures for the strength of 18 policies (from Alcohol Policy Information System) and levels of enforcement of those policies for the 50 US states, and examined their associations with alcohol consumption. We grouped policies into four domains (underage alcohol use, provision of alcohol to underage, alcohol serving, general availability) and used latent class analysis to assign states to one of four classes based on the configuration of policies-weak except serving policies (6 states), average (29 states), strong for underage use (11 states) and strong policies overall (4 states). We surveyed 1082 local enforcement agencies regarding alcohol enforcement across five domains. We used multilevel latent class analysis to assign states to classes in each domain and assigned each state to an overall low (15 states), moderate (19 states) or high (16 states) enforcement group. Consumption outcomes (past month, binge and heavy) came from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Regression models show inverse associations between alcohol consumption and policy class, with past month alcohol consumption at 54% in the weakest policy class and 34% in the strongest. In adjusted models, the strong underage use policy class was consistently associated with lower consumption. Enforcement group did not affect the policy class and consumption associations. Results suggest strong alcohol policies, particularly underage use policies, may help to reduce alcohol consumption and related consequences. [Erickson DJ, Lenk KM, Toomey TL, Nelson TF, Jones-Webb R. The alcohol policy environment, enforcement, and consumption in the United States. Drug Alcohol Rev 2015;●●:●●-●●]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Next generation data systems and knowledge products to support agricultural producers and science-based policy decision making.

PubMed

Capalbo, Susan M; Antle, John M; Seavert, Clark

2017-07-01

Research on next generation agricultural systems models shows that the most important current limitation is data, both for on-farm decision support and for research investment and policy decision making. One of the greatest data challenges is to obtain reliable data on farm management decision making, both for current conditions and under scenarios of changed bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. This paper presents a framework for the use of farm-level and landscape-scale models and data to provide analysis that could be used in NextGen knowledge products, such as mobile applications or personal computer data analysis and visualization software. We describe two analytical tools - AgBiz Logic and TOA-MD - that demonstrate the current capability of farmlevel and landscape-scale models. The use of these tools is explored with a case study of an oilseed crop, Camelina sativa , which could be used to produce jet aviation fuel. We conclude with a discussion of innovations needed to facilitate the use of farm and policy-level models to generate data and analysis for improved knowledge products.

Associations between state minimum wage policy and health care access: a multi-level analysis of the 2004 Behavioral Risk Factor survey.

PubMed

McCarrier, Kelly P; Martin, Diane P; Ralston, James D; Zimmerman, Frederick J

2010-05-01

Minimum wage policies have been advanced as mechanisms to improve the economic conditions of the working poor. Both positive and negative effects of such policies on health care access have been hypothesized, but associations have yet to be thoroughly tested. To examine whether the presence of minimum wage policies in excess of the federal standard of $5.15 per hour was associated with health care access indicators among low-skilled adults of working age, a cross-sectional analysis of 2004 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data was conducted. Self-reported health insurance status and experience with cost-related barriers to needed medical care were adjusted in multi-level logistic regression models to control for potential confounding at the state, county, and individual levels. State-level wage policy was not found to be associated with insurance status or unmet medical need in the models, providing early evidence that increased minimum wage rates may neither strengthen nor weaken access to care as previously predicted.

A Petri Net Approach Based Elementary Siphons Supervisor for Flexible Manufacturing Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdul-Hussin, Mowafak Hassan

2015-05-01

This paper presents an approach to constructing a class of an S3PR net for modeling, simulation and control of processes occurring in the flexible manufacturing system (FMS) used based elementary siphons of a Petri net. Siphons are very important to the analysis and control of deadlocks of FMS that is significant objectives of siphons. Petri net models in the efficiency structure analysis, and utilization of the FMSs when different policy can be implemented lead to the deadlock prevention. We are representing an effective deadlock-free policy of a special class of Petri nets called S3PR. Simulation of Petri net structural analysis and reachability graph analysis is used for analysis and control of Petri nets. Petri nets contain been successfully as one of the most powerful tools for modelling of FMS, where Using structural analysis, we show that liveness of such systems can be attributed to the absence of under marked siphons.

System dynamic modeling on construction waste management in Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Tam, Vivian W Y; Li, Jingru; Cai, Hong

2014-05-01

This article examines the complexity of construction waste management in Shenzhen, Mainland China. In-depth analysis of waste generation, transportation, recycling, landfill and illegal dumping of various inherent management phases is explored. A system dynamics modeling using Stella model is developed. Effects of landfill charges and also penalties from illegal dumping are also simulated. The results show that the implementation of comprehensive policy on both landfill charges and illegal dumping can effectively control the illegal dumping behavior, and achieve comprehensive construction waste minimization. This article provides important recommendations for effective policy implementation and explores new perspectives for Shenzhen policy makers.

Large Spatial and Temporal Separations of Cause and Effect in Policy Making - Dealing with Non-linear Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaskill, John

There can be large spatial and temporal separation of cause and effect in policy making. Determining the correct linkage between policy inputs and outcomes can be highly impractical in the complex environments faced by policy makers. In attempting to see and plan for the probable outcomes, standard linear models often overlook, ignore, or are unable to predict catastrophic events that only seem improbable due to the issue of multiple feedback loops. There are several issues with the makeup and behaviors of complex systems that explain the difficulty many mathematical models (factor analysis/structural equation modeling) have in dealing with non-linear effects in complex systems. This chapter highlights those problem issues and offers insights to the usefulness of ABM in dealing with non-linear effects in complex policy making environments.

Tackling childhood obesity: the importance of understanding the context.

PubMed

Knai, Cécile; McKee, Martin

2010-12-01

Recommendations to tackle major health problems such as childhood obesity may not be appropriate if they fail to take account of the prevailing socio-political, cultural and economic context. We describe the development and application of a qualitative risk analysis approach to identify non-scientific considerations framing the policy response to obesity in Denmark and Latvia. Interviews conducted with key stakeholders in Denmark and Latvia, undertaken following a review of relevant literature on obesity and national policies. A qualitative risk analysis model was developed to help explain the findings in the light of national context. Non-scientific considerations that appeared to influence the response to obesity include the perceived relative importance of childhood obesity; the nature of stakeholder relations and its impact on decision-making; the place of obesity on the policy agenda; the legitimacy of the state to act for population health and views on alliances between public and private sectors. Better recognition of the exogenous factors affecting policy-making may lead to a more adequate policy response. The development and use of a qualitative risk analysis model enabled a better understanding of the contextual factors and processes influencing the response to childhood obesity in each country.

Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

2015-04-01

The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

Neighbourhood food, physical activity, and educational environments and black/white disparities in obesity: a complex systems simulation analysis.

PubMed

Orr, Mark G; Kaplan, George A; Galea, Sandro

2016-09-01

Multiple approaches that can contribute to reducing obesity have been proposed. These policies may share overlapping pathways, and may have unanticipated consequences, creating considerable complexity. Aiming to illuminate the use of agent-based models to explore the consequences of key policies, this paper simulates the effects of increasing neighbourhood availability of good food stores, physical activity infrastructure and higher school quality on the reduction of black/white disparities in body mass index (BMI) in the USA. We used an agent-based model, with parameters derived from the empirical literature, which included individual and neighbourhood characteristics over the life course as determinants of behaviours thought to impact BMI. We systematically varied the strength of the 3 policy interventions, examining the impact of 125 different policy scenarios on black/white BMI disparities. In the absence of any of these policies, black/white BMI disparities generally increased over time. However, we found that some combinations of these policies resulted in reductions in BMI, yielding decreases in the black/white BMI disparity as large as a 90%. Within the structure of relationships captured in this simulation model, there is support for the further use of agent-based simulation models to explore upstream policies as plausible candidates for the reduction of black/white disparities in BMI. These results highlight the potential insights into important public health problems, such as obesity, that can come from uniting the systems science approach with policy analysis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Trust-based information system architecture for personal wellness.

PubMed

Ruotsalainen, Pekka; Nykänen, Pirkko; Seppälä, Antto; Blobel, Bernd

2014-01-01

Modern eHealth, ubiquitous health and personal wellness systems take place in an unsecure and ubiquitous information space where no predefined trust occurs. This paper presents novel information model and an architecture for trust based privacy management of personal health and wellness information in ubiquitous environment. The architecture enables a person to calculate a dynamic and context-aware trust value for each service provider, and using it to design personal privacy policies for trustworthy use of health and wellness services. For trust calculation a novel set of measurable context-aware and health information-sensitive attributes is developed. The architecture enables a person to manage his or her privacy in ubiquitous environment by formulating context-aware and service provider specific policies. Focus groups and information modelling was used for developing a wellness information model. System analysis method based on sequential steps that enable to combine results of analysis of privacy and trust concerns and the selection of trust and privacy services was used for development of the information system architecture. Its services (e.g. trust calculation, decision support, policy management and policy binding services) and developed attributes enable a person to define situation-aware policies that regulate the way his or her wellness and health information is processed.

Taking power, politics, and policy problems seriously: the limits of knowledge translation for urban health research.

PubMed

Murphy, Kelly; Fafard, Patrick

2012-08-01

Knowledge translation (KT) is a growing movement in clinical and health services research, aimed to help make research more relevant and to move research into practice and policy. This paper examines the conventional model of policy change presented in KT and assesses its applicability for increasing the impact of urban health research on urban health policy. In general, KT conceptualizes research utilization in terms of the technical implementation of scientific findings, on the part of individual decision-makers who can be "targeted" for a KT intervention, in a context that is absent of political interests. However, complex urban health problems and interventions infrequently resemble this single decision, single decision-maker model posited by KT. In order to clarify the conditions under which urban health research is more likely or not to have an influence on public policy development, we propose to supplement the conventional model with three concepts drawn from the social science: policy stages, policy networks, and a discourse analysis approach for theorizing power in policy-making.

Application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the air quality SHERPA modelling tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisoni, E.; Albrecht, D.; Mara, T. A.; Rosati, R.; Tarantola, S.; Thunis, P.

2018-06-01

Air quality has significantly improved in Europe over the past few decades. Nonetheless we still find high concentrations in measurements mainly in specific regions or cities. This dimensional shift, from EU-wide to hot-spot exceedances, calls for a novel approach to regional air quality management (to complement EU-wide existing policies). The SHERPA (Screening for High Emission Reduction Potentials on Air quality) modelling tool was developed in this context. It provides an additional tool to be used in support to regional/local decision makers responsible for the design of air quality plans. It is therefore important to evaluate the quality of the SHERPA model, and its behavior in the face of various kinds of uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. They both reveal the links between assumptions and forecasts, help in-model simplification and may highlight unexpected relationships between inputs and outputs. Thus, a policy steered SHERPA module - predicting air quality improvement linked to emission reduction scenarios - was evaluated by means of (1) uncertainty analysis (UA) to quantify uncertainty in the model output, and (2) by sensitivity analysis (SA) to identify the most influential input sources of this uncertainty. The results of this study provide relevant information about the key variables driving the SHERPA output uncertainty, and advise policy-makers and modellers where to place their efforts for an improved decision-making process.

Monetary Policy Delelgation and Transparency of Policy Targets: A Positive Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

International Outsourcing : Solving ihc Puzzle. February 2009 87 Riindshagcn Bianc.i. Zimmermann. Klaus sv Buchanan-Kooperarion und...through surprise inflation. In a framework with endogenous wage setting by unions. Sorensen (1991) shows that uncertainty of the policy maker’s...of ronsi i vatism in open economies . Hughes Hallett and Weymark (2004, 2005) or Lockwood et al. (1998) apply two-stage models of monetary policy

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

Medicare long-term CPAP coverage policy: a cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Billings, Martha E; Kapur, Vishesh K

2013-10-15

CPAP is an effective treatment for OSA that may reduce health care utilization and costs. Medicare currently reimburses the costs of long-term CPAP therapy only if the patient is adherent during a 90-day trial. If not, Medicare requires a repeat polysomnogram (PSG) and another trial which seems empirically not cost-effective. We modeled the cost-effectiveness of current Medicare policy compared to an alternative policy (clinic-only) without the adherence criterion and repeat PSG. Cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analysis. U.S. Medicare Population. N/A. N/A. We created a decision tree modeling (1) clinic only follow-up vs. (2) current Medicare policy. Costs were assigned based on Medicare reimbursement rates in 2012. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test our assumptions. We estimated cumulative costs, overall adherence, and QALY gained for a 5-year time horizon from the perspective of Medicare as the payer. Current Medicare policy is more costly than the clinic-only policy but has higher net adherence and improved utility. Current Medicare policy compared to clinic-only policy costs $30,544 more per QALY. Current CMS policy promotes early identification of those more likely to adhere to CPAP therapy by requiring strict adherence standards. The policy effect is to deny coverage to those unlikely to use CPAP long-term and prevent wasted resources. Future studies are needed to measure long-term adherence in an elderly population with and without current adherence requirements to verify the cost-effectiveness of a policy change.

Using Future Research Methods in Analysing Policies Relating to Open Distance Education in Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makoe, Mpine Elizabeth

2018-01-01

Many African countries have developed policies to reform their education system in order to widen participation in higher education. To achieve this, open, online and distance education based models have been advocated as the most viable delivery tools in expanding access to higher education. However, the policy analysis of Kenya, Rwanda and…

Exploring Fiscal Policy at Zero Interest Rates in Intermediate Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramamurthy, Srikanth; Sedgley, Norman

2013-01-01

Since the financial meltdown of 2007, advanced macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the question of the appropriate fiscal policy when the nominal interest rate is close to or at zero percent. Such analysis is typically conducted with the aid of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The policy implications are,…

A State-By-State Policy Analysis of STEM Education for K-12 Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carmichael, Courtney C.

2017-01-01

For practitioners and policy makers across the nation, STEM education has a vague definition. This study looks at how all 50 states define STEM education in policy, using four models: (a) Disciplinary STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics); (b) Integrated STEM focusing on combining two or more disciplines to produce critical…

Toward a Rational Educational Policy. An Econometric Analysis of Ontario, Canada, 1950-65 with Tests 1966-68 and Projections 1969-75.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Handa, M. L.

This report describes some models the author developed to investigate the simultaneous interaction of decisionmakers in a province-wide educational system and to help formulate educational policy for achieving specified enrollments and expenditures. In chapter one, the author describes the models that examine the process of simultaneous…

Regional Policy Models for Forest Biodiversity Analysis: Lessons From Coastal Oregon

Treesearch

K. Norman Johnson; Sally Duncan; Thomas A. Spies

2007-01-01

The crisis in the early 1990s over conservation of biodiversity in the forests of the Pacific Northwest caused an upheaval in forest policies for public and private landowners. These events led to the development of the Coastal Landscape Assessment and Modeling Study (CLAMS) for the Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon, a province containing over two million...

A Critique of the STEM Pipeline: Young People's Identities in Sweden and Science Education Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendick, Heather; Berge, Maria; Danielsson, Anna

2017-01-01

In this article, we develop critiques of the pipeline model which dominates Western science education policy, using discourse analysis of interviews with two Swedish young women focused on "identity work". We argue that it is important to unpack the ways that the pipeline model fails to engage with intersections of gender, ethnicity,…

The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2016-11-01

The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system.

PubMed

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-10-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system

PubMed Central

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-01-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions. PMID:29278245

Pedestrian paths: why path-dependence theory leaves health policy analysis lost in space.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence D

2010-08-01

Path dependence, a model first advanced to explain puzzles in the diffusion of technology, has lately won allegiance among analysts of the politics of public policy, including health care policy. Though the central premise of the model--that past events and decisions shape options for innovation in the present and future--is indisputable (indeed path dependence is, so to speak, too shallow to be false), the approach, at least as applied to health policy, suffers from ambiguities that undercut its claims to illuminate policy projects such as managed care, on which this article focuses. Because path dependence adds little more than marginal value to familiar images of the politics of policy--incrementalism, for one--analysts might do well to put it on the back burner and pursue instead "thick descriptions" that help them to distinguish different degrees of openness to exogenous change among diverse policy arenas.

Advancing team-based primary health care: a comparative analysis of policies in western Canada.

PubMed

Suter, Esther; Mallinson, Sara; Misfeldt, Renee; Boakye, Omenaa; Nasmith, Louise; Wong, Sabrina T

2017-07-17

We analyzed and compared primary health care (PHC) policies in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan to understand how they inform the design and implementation of team-based primary health care service delivery. The goal was to develop policy imperatives that can advance team-based PHC in Canada. We conducted comparative case studies (n = 3). The policy analysis included: Context review: We reviewed relevant information (2007 to 2014) from databases and websites. Policy review and comparative analysis: We compared and contrasted publically available PHC policies. Key informant interviews: Key informants (n = 30) validated narratives prepared from the comparative analysis by offering contextual information on potential policy imperatives. Advisory group and roundtable: An expert advisory group guided this work and a key stakeholder roundtable event guided prioritization of policy imperatives. The concept of team-based PHC varies widely across and within the three provinces. We noted policy gaps related to team configuration, leadership, scope of practice, role clarity and financing of team-based care; few policies speak explicitly to monitoring and evaluation of team-based PHC. We prioritized four policy imperatives: (1) alignment of goals and policies at different system levels; (2) investment of resources for system change; (3) compensation models for all members of the team; and (4) accountability through collaborative practice metrics. Policies supporting team-based PHC have been slow to emerge, lacking a systematic and coordinated approach. Greater alignment with specific consideration of financing, reimbursement, implementation mechanisms and performance monitoring could accelerate systemic transformation by removing some well-known barriers to team-based care.

Evidence-based policy: implications for nursing and policy involvement.

PubMed

Hewison, Alistair

2008-11-01

Evidence-based policy making is espoused as a central feature of government in the United Kingdom. However, an expectation that this will improve the quality of policy produced and provide a path to increased involvement of nurses in the policy process is misplaced. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that the emphasis on evidence-based policy is problematic and cannot be regarded as a "new model" of policy making. Also, it could deflect attention from more practical approaches to policy involvement on the part of nurses. Policy development activities, acquisition of skills in policy analysis, and other forms of involvement are needed if nurses are to move along the continuum from policy literacy, through policy acumen, to policy competence. This involves taking a critical stance on the notion of evidence-based policy.

Developing and testing a positive theory of instrument choice: Renewable energy policy in the fifty American states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciocirlan, Cristina E.

The environmental economics literature consistently suggests that properly designed and implemented economic incentives are superior to command-and-control regulation in reducing pollution. Economic incentives, such as green taxes, cap-and-trade programs, tax incentives, are able to reduce pollution in a cost-effective manner, provide flexibility to industry and stimulate innovation in cleaner technologies. In the past few decades, both federal and state governments have shown increased use of economic incentives in environmental policy. Some states have embraced them in an active manner, while others have failed to do so. This research uses a three-step analysis. First, it asks why some states employ more economic incentives than others to stimulate consumption of renewable energy by the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Second, it asks why some states employ stronger incentives than others. And third, it asks why certain states employ certain instruments, such as electricity surcharges, cap-and-trade programs, tax incentives or grants, while others do not. The first two analyses were conducted using factor analysis and multiple regression analysis, while the third analysis employed logistic regression models to analyze the data. Data for all three analyses were obtained from a combination of primary and secondary sources. To address these questions, a theory of instrument choice at the state level, which includes both internal and external determinants of policy-making, was developed and tested. The state level of analysis was chosen. States have proven to be pioneers in designing policies to address greenhouse gases (see, for instance, the recent cap-and-trade legislation passed in California). The theory was operationalized with the help of four models: needs/responsiveness, interest group influence, professionalism/capacity and innovation-and-diffusion. The needs/responsiveness model suggests that states tend to choose more and stronger economic incentives when they are more dependent on conventional sources of energy, such as coal, oil and gas or when they have the potential to produce renewable energy. The interest group influence model suggests that instrument choice is ultimately a political decision, most likely to benefit some groups more than others. The professionalism/capacity model posits that states with more professional legislatures, with legislators who make more use of policy analysis, with more capacity to generate nonpartisan policy research and with larger agencies tend to employ more and stronger instruments to stimulate renewable energy consumption and production. And last, the innovation-and-diffusion model suggests that states with a proven innovation record in climate change tend to employ more and stronger economic incentives than states without such record. Also, this model explains states' instrument choice decisions as a function of the choices made by their neighbors.

Cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening policies using simulation.

PubMed

Gocgun, Y; Banjevic, D; Taghipour, S; Montgomery, N; Harvey, B J; Jardine, A K S; Miller, A B

2015-08-01

In this paper, we study breast cancer screening policies using computer simulation. We developed a multi-state Markov model for breast cancer progression, considering both the screening and treatment stages of breast cancer. The parameters of our model were estimated through data from the Canadian National Breast Cancer Screening Study as well as data in the relevant literature. Using computer simulation, we evaluated various screening policies to study the impact of mammography screening for age-based subpopulations in Canada. We also performed sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of certain parameters on number of deaths and total costs. The analysis comparing screening policies reveals that a policy in which women belonging to the 40-49 age group are not screened, whereas those belonging to the 50-59 and 60-69 age groups are screened once every 5 years, outperforms others with respect to cost per life saved. Our analysis also indicates that increasing the screening frequencies for the 50-59 and 60-69 age groups decrease mortality, and that the average number of deaths generally decreases with an increase in screening frequency. We found that screening annually for all age groups is associated with the highest costs per life saved. Our analysis thus reveals that cost per life saved increases with an increase in screening frequency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How important are work-family support policies? A meta-analytic investigation of their effects on employee outcomes.

PubMed

Butts, Marcus M; Casper, Wendy J; Yang, Tae Seok

2013-01-01

This meta-analysis examines relationships between work-family support policies, which are policies that provide support for dependent care responsibilities, and employee outcomes by developing a conceptual model detailing the psychological mechanisms through which policy availability and use relate to work attitudes. Bivariate results indicated that availability and use of work-family support policies had modest positive relationships with job satisfaction, affective commitment, and intentions to stay. Further, tests of differences in effect sizes showed that policy availability was more strongly related to job satisfaction, affective commitment, and intentions to stay than was policy use. Subsequent meta-analytic structural equation modeling results indicated that policy availability and use had modest effects on work attitudes, which were partially mediated by family-supportive organization perceptions and work-to-family conflict, respectively. Additionally, number of policies and sample characteristics (percent women, percent married-cohabiting, percent with dependents) moderated the effects of policy availability and use on outcomes. Implications of these findings and directions for future research on work-family support policies are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Integrated mixed methods policy analysis for sustainable food systems: trends, challenges and future research.

PubMed

Cuevas, Soledad

Agriculture is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, an important part of which is associated to deforestation and indirect land use change. Appropriate and coherent food policies can play an important role in aligning health, economic and environmental goals. From the point of view of policy analysis, however, this requires multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary approaches which can be highly complex. Important methodological advances in the area are not exempted from limitations and criticism. We argue that there is scope for further developments in integrated quantitative and qualitative policy analysis combining existing methods, including mathematical modelling and stakeholder analysis. We outline methodological trends in the field, briefly characterise integrated mixed methods policy analysis and identify contributions, challenges and opportunities for future research. In particular, this type of approach can help address issues of uncertainty and context-specific validity, incorporate multiple perspectives and help advance meaningful interdisciplinary collaboration in the field. Substantial challenges remain, however, such as the integration of key issues related to non-communicable disease, or the incorporation of a broader range of qualitative approaches that can address important cultural and ethical dimensions of food.

Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

2011-12-01

Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE)

EPA Science Inventory

ADAGE is a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model capable of examining many types of economic, energy, environmental, climate change mitigation, and trade policies at the international, national, U.S. regional, and U.S. state levels. To investigate proposed policy eff...

Multilevel Analysis of the Effects of Antidiscrimination Policies on Earnings by Sexual Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klawitter, Marieka

2011-01-01

This study uses the 2000 U.S. Census data to assess the impact of antidiscrimination policies for sexual orientation on earnings for gays and lesbians. Using a multilevel model allows estimation of the effects of state and local policies on earnings and of variation in the effects of sexual orientation across local labor markets. The results…

The "CHARM" Policy Analysis Framework: Evaluation of Policies to Promote Immigrant Students' Resilience. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 158

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bilgili, Özge

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on children with a migration background and conceptualises their migration experience as adversity. The paper adapts the resilience framework to understand how immigrant children can overcome adversity. The paper discusses policy models that can be derived from adopting a resilience approach to the measurement of immigrant…

Separating analysis from politics: Acid rain in Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patt, A.

Over the last twenty years, policy-makers in Europe have attempted to solve the problem of acid rain using detailed analysis grounded in natural science and economics. The results are impressive, as Europeans have successfully implemented a number of international agreements to reduce pollution emissions, agreements that in theory achieve the greatest environmental benefit at the lowest aggregate cost across Europe. This article examines the analysis on which these policies were based. First, it finds a pattern of investigating the use of cost-benefit analysis, together with a lack of usefulness associated with the actual results of such analysis. Second, it findsmore » that the analytic framework that came to replace cost-benefit analysis--critical loads--contained many of the same uncertainties and political decisions that plagued cost-benefit analysis. Nevertheless, critical loads analysis was seen as less value-laden and more reliable, and contributed significantly to policy development. Desire for rapid action led policy-makers to ignore or overlook the politics and uncertainties inherent in efforts at scientific assessment and modeling.« less

Geothermal power, policy, and design: Using levelized cost of energy and sensitivity analysis to target improved policy incentives for the U.S. geothermal market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richard, Christopher L.

At the core of the geothermal industry is a need to identify how policy incentives can better be applied for optimal return. Literature from Bloomquist (1999), Doris et al. (2009), and McIlveen (2011) suggest that a more tailored approach to crafting geothermal policy is warranted. In this research the guiding theory is based on those suggestions and is structured to represent a policy analysis approach using analytical methods. The methods being used are focus on qualitative and quantitative results. To address the qualitative sections of this research an extensive review of contemporary literature is used to identify the frequency of use for specific barriers, and is followed upon with an industry survey to determine existing gaps. As a result there is support for certain barriers and justification for expanding those barriers found within the literature. This method of inquiry is an initial point for structuring modeling tools to further quantify the research results as part of the theoretical framework. Analytical modeling utilizes the levelized cost of energy as a foundation for comparative assessment of policy incentives. Model parameters use assumptions to draw conclusions from literature and survey results to reflect unique attributes held by geothermal power technologies. Further testing by policy option provides an opportunity to assess the sensitivity of each variable with respect to applied policy. Master limited partnerships, feed in tariffs, RD&D, and categorical exclusions all result as viable options for mitigating specific barriers associated to developing geothermal power. The results show reductions of levelized cost based upon the model's exclusive parameters. These results are also compared to contemporary policy options highlighting the need for tailored policy, as discussed by Bloomquist (1999), Doris et al. (2009), and McIlveen (2011). It is the intent of this research to provide the reader with a descriptive understanding of the role of geothermal power in the United States, and to recognize that not all policy or energy technology is created equal. Further study options are provide to expand the scope and granularity of this research design to better support a growing market.

Language Planning and Education of Adult Immigrants in Canada: Contrasting the Provinces of Quebec and British Columbia, and the Cities of Montreal and Vancouver

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellyson, Catherine; Andrew, Caroline; Clément, Richard

2016-01-01

Combining policy analysis with language policy and planning analysis, our article comparatively assesses two models of adult immigrants' language education in two very different provinces of the same federal country. In order to do so, we focus specifically on two questions: "'Why' do governments provide language education to adults?"…

HIA, the next step: Defining models and roles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Putters, Kim

If HIA is to be an effective instrument for optimising health interests in the policy making process it has to recognise the different contests in which policy is made and the relevance of both technical rationality and political rationality. Policy making may adopt a rational perspective in which there is a systematic and orderly progression from problem formulation to solution or a network perspective in which there are multiple interdependencies, extensive negotiation and compromise, and the steps from problem to formulation are not followed sequentially or in any particular order. Policy problems may be simple with clear causal pathways andmore » responsibilities or complex with unclear causal pathways and disputed responsibilities. Network analysis is required to show which stakeholders are involved, their support for health issues and the degree of consensus. From this analysis three models of HIA emerge. The first is the phases model which is fitted to simple problems and a rational perspective of policymaking. This model involves following structured steps. The second model is the rounds (Echternach) model that is fitted to complex problems and a network perspective of policymaking. This model is dynamic and concentrates on network solutions taking these steps in no particular order. The final model is the 'garbage can' model fitted to contexts which combine simple and complex problems. In this model HIA functions as a problem solver and signpost keeping all possible solutions and stakeholders in play and allowing solutions to emerge over time. HIA models should be the beginning rather than the conclusion of discussion the worlds of HIA and policymaking.« less

Future of the American Family: A Comparative Analysis of Public Policy Research Definitions of the Family.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Catherine

This paper presents a review of commonly used family models which illustrate the wide range of differences in definition of the American family. Its purpose is to help assure that national family policy is based on a definition of family made in the broadest possible context. The major part of the paper discusses five commonly used models. The…

DYNARIP: A technique for regional forest inventory projection and policy analysis

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold

1984-01-01

DYNARIP is a policy-oriented model capable of tracking all of the treatments and disturbances experienced by the forest resources of an entire State or regional area. It can also isolate the impact of any one of the 27 man-caused or natural disturbances (including natural succession and forest land-base changes). The model is driven by empirical rates of change as...

An Examination of State Funding Models Regarding Virtual Schools for Public Elementary and Secondary Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stedrak, Luke J.

2012-01-01

This study contains an analysis of virtual schools, public policy, and funding in the United States. The purpose of this study was to determine what public policies and legislation were in place regarding the funding models of virtual education on a state by state basis. Furthermore, this study addressed how allocations were being made by state…

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

Policy choices in dementia care-An exploratory analysis of the Alberta continuing care system (ACCS) using system dynamics.

PubMed

Cepoiu-Martin, Monica; Bischak, Diane P

2018-02-01

The increase in the incidence of dementia in the aging population and the decrease in the availability of informal caregivers put pressure on continuing care systems to care for a growing number of people with disabilities. Policy changes in the continuing care system need to address this shift in the population structure. One of the most effective tools for assessing policies in complex systems is system dynamics. Nevertheless, this method is underused in continuing care capacity planning. A system dynamics model of the Alberta Continuing Care System was developed using stylized data. Sensitivity analyses and policy evaluations were conducted to demonstrate the use of system dynamics modelling in this area of public health planning. We focused our policy exploration on introducing staff/resident benchmarks in both supportive living and long-term care (LTC). The sensitivity analyses presented in this paper help identify leverage points in the system that need to be acknowledged when policy decisions are made. Our policy explorations showed that the deficits of staff increase dramatically when benchmarks are introduced, as expected, but at the end of the simulation period, the difference in deficits of both nurses and health care aids are similar between the 2 scenarios tested. Modifying the benchmarks in LTC only versus in both supportive living and LTC has similar effects on staff deficits in long term, under the assumptions of this particular model. The continuing care system dynamics model can be used to test various policy scenarios, allowing decision makers to visualize the effect of a certain policy choice on different system variables and to compare different policy options. Our exploration illustrates the use of system dynamics models for policy making in complex health care systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Examination of the relationship between theory-driven policies and allowed lost-time back claims in workers' compensation: a system dynamics model.

PubMed

Wong, Jessica J; McGregor, Marion; Mior, Silvano A; Loisel, Patrick

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a model that evaluates the impact of policy changes on the number of workers' compensation lost-time back claims in Ontario, Canada, over a 30-year timeframe. The model was used to test the hypothesis that a theory- and policy-driven model would be sufficient in reproducing historical claims data in a robust manner and that policy changes would have a major impact on modeled data. The model was developed using system dynamics methods in the Vensim simulation program. The theoretical effects of policies for compensation benefit levels and experience rating fees were modeled. The model was built and validated using historical claims data from 1980 to 2009. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the modeled data at extreme end points of variable input and timeframes. The degree of predictive value of the modeled data was measured by the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and Theil's inequality coefficients. Correlation between modeled data and actual data was found to be meaningful (R(2) = 0.934), and the modeled data were stable at extreme end points. Among the effects explored, policy changes were found to be relatively minor drivers of back claims data, accounting for a 13% improvement in error. Simulation results suggested that unemployment, number of no-lost-time claims, number of injuries per worker, and recovery rate from back injuries outside of claims management to be sensitive drivers of back claims data. A robust systems-based model was developed and tested for use in future policy research in Ontario's workers' compensation. The study findings suggest that certain areas within and outside the workers' compensation system need to be considered when evaluating and changing policies around back claims. © 2014. Published by National University of Health Sciences All rights reserved.

A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

2017-12-01

Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost-benefit analysis produce many scenarios where nuclear energy is economically unattractive.

The shift to rapid job placement for people living with mental illness: an analysis of consequences.

PubMed

Gewurtz, Rebecca E; Cott, Cheryl; Rush, Brian; Kirsh, Bonnie

2012-12-01

This article reports on the consequences of the revised policy for employment supports within the Ontario Disability Support Program, a disability benefit program administered by the provincial government in Ontario, Canada. The revised policy involves a change from a fee-for-service model to an outcome-based funding model. This revision has encouraged a shift from preemployment to job placement services, with a particular focus on rapid placement into available jobs. Using a qualitative case study approach, 25 key informant interviews were conducted with individuals involved in developing or implementing the policy, or delivering employment services for individuals living with mental illness under the policy. Policy documents were also reviewed in order to explore the intent of the policy. Analysis focused on exploring how the policy has been implemented in practice, and its impact on employment services for individuals living with mental illness. The findings highlight how employment support practices have evolved under the new policy. Although there is now an increased focus on employment rather than preemployment supports, the financial imperative to place individuals into jobs as quickly as possible has decreased attention to career development. Jobs are reported to be concentrated at the entry-level with low pay and little security or benefits. These findings raise questions about the quality of employment being achieved under the new policy, highlight problems with adopting selected components of evidence-based approaches, and begin to explicate the influence that funding structures can have on practice.

Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

PubMed Central

Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

2014-01-01

Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

IWRM Policy in Colombia, drawbacks and strategies towards integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardona, C. A.

2016-12-01

Since the establishment of the Integrated Water Resource Management National Policy in Colombia in 2010- IWRMNP, several initiatives has been developed in order to understand and manage water within the integration perspective. However, the Colombian institutional and legal frameworks do not favor the implementation of integrated management exercises, and many efforts have been fruitless in recent years. Additionally, there is an avalanche of techniques and available technologies to develop integrated models, analysis or assessments, which frequently are interpreted as the same tool. An analysis of the Colombian context in regulatory terms and institutions involved is carried out, as a prelude to address the topic of analysis modeling and integrated management. Moreover, in Colombian legislation there exists policies regarding integrated soil management, integrated biodiversity management, as well as several current international trends such as integrated landscape planning, integrated urban areas management etc. Therefore, and in light of the initial analysis, a discussion of redundancy or complementarity of such management it is carried out. Finally, a strategy is proposed for decision makers of local and regional level, trying to overcome technical gaps left by national policy and regulations. This is done from a discussion of the various anthropic damages to water resources systems. Also a classification of integrated models is proposed and a general approach to systems integrated resource management to finally present a state- management matrix methodology applicable to different cases and management requirements. The results of its implementation in a small basin is presented.

Predictors of workplace sexual health policy at sex work establishments in the Philippines.

PubMed

Withers, M; Dornig, K; Morisky, D E

2007-09-01

Based on the literature, we identified manager and establishment characteristics that we hypothesized are related to workplace policies that support HIV protective behavior. We developed a sexual health policy index consisting of 11 items as our outcome variable. We utilized both bivariate and multivariate analysis of variance. The significant variables in our bivariate analyses (establishment type, number of employees, manager age, and membership in manager association) were entered into a multivariate regression model. The model was significant (p<.01), and predicted 42) of the variability in the development and management of a workplace sexual health policy supportive of condom use. The significant predictors were number of employees and establishment type. In addition to individually-focused CSW interventions, HIV prevention programs should target managers and establishment policies. Future HIV prevention programs may need to focus on helping smaller establishments, in particular those with less employees, to build capacity and develop sexual health policy guidelines.

Policy-relevant behaviours predict heavier drinking and mediate the relationship with age, gender and education status: Analysis from the International Alcohol Control study.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Parker, Karl; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Parry, Charles D H; Viet Cuong, Pham; Gray-Phillip, Gaile; Piazza, Marina

2018-02-21

To investigate behaviours related to four alcohol policy variables (policy-relevant behaviours) and demographic variables in relation to typical quantities of alcohol consumed on-premise in six International Alcohol Control study countries. General population surveys with drinkers using a comparable survey instrument and data analysed using path analysis in an overall model and for each country. typical quantities per occasion consumed on-premise; gender, age; years of education, prices paid, time of purchase, time to access alcohol and liking for alcohol advertisements. In the overall model younger people, males and those with fewer years of education consumed larger typical quantities. Overall lower prices paid, later time of purchase and liking for alcohol ads predicted consuming larger typical quantities; this was found in the high-income countries, less consistently in the high-middle-income countries and not in the low middle-income country. Three policy-relevant behaviours (prices paid, time of purchase, liking for alcohol ads) mediated the relationships between age, gender, education and consumption in high-income countries. International Alcohol Control survey data showed a relationship between policy-relevant behaviours and typical quantities consumed and support the likely effect of policy change (trading hours, price and restrictions on marketing) on heavier drinking. The path analysis also revealed policy-relevant behaviours were significant mediating variables between the effect of age, gender and educational status on consumption. However, this relationship is clearest in high-income countries. Further research is required to understand better how circumstances in low-middle-income countries impact effects of policies. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldhuis, J.; Essers, I.; Bakker, D.; Cohn, N.; Kroes, E.

1999-01-01

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel. Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, are also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/integraal Luchthaven Competitie Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldhuis, J.; Essers, I.; Bakker, D.; Cohn, N.; Kroes, E.

1999-01-01

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel, Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, arc also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/Integral Luchthaven Competitive Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Multilevel spatiotemporal change-point models for evaluating the effect of an alcohol outlet control policy on changes in neighborhood assaultive violence rates.

PubMed

Xu, Yanjun; Yu, Qingzhao; Scribner, Richard; Theall, Katherine; Scribner, Scott; Simonsen, Neal

2012-06-01

Many previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaultive violence rates. In 1997 the City of New Orleans adopted a series of policies, e.g., increased license fee, additional enforcement staff, and expanded powers for the alcohol license board. The policies were specifically enacted to address the proliferation of problem alcohol outlets believed to be the source of a variety of social problems including assaultive violence. In this research, we evaluate the impact of a city level policy in New Orleans to address the problem alcohol outlets and their influence on assaultive violence. The spatial association between rates of assaultive violence at the census tract level (n=170) over a ten year period raises a challenge in statistical analysis. To meet this challenge we developed a hierarchical change-point model that controls for important covariates of assaultive violence and accounts for unexplained spatial and temporal variability. While our model is somewhat complex, its hierarchical Bayesian analysis is accessible via the WinBUGS software program. Keeping other effects fixed, the implementation of the new city level policy was associated with a decrease in the positive association between census tract level rates of assaultive violence and alcohol outlet density. Comparing several candidate change-point models using the DIC criterion, the positive association began decreasing the year of the policy implementation. The magnitude of the association continued to decrease for roughly two years and then stabilized. We also created maps of the fitted assaultive violence rates in New Orleans, as well as spatial residual maps which, together with Moran's I's, suggest that the spatial variation of the data is well accounted for by our model. We reach the conclusion that the implementation of the policy is associated with a significant decrease in the positive relationship between assaultive violence and the off-sale alcohol outlet density. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecosocial consequences and policy implications of disease management in East African agropastoral systems.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Gilioli, Gianni; Baumgärtner, Johann

2009-08-04

International research and development efforts in Africa have brought ecological and social change, but analyzing the consequences of this change and developing policy to manage it for sustainable development has been difficult. This has been largely due to a lack of conceptual and analytical models to access the interacting dynamics of the different components of ecosocial systems. Here, we examine the ecological and social changes resulting from an ongoing suppression of trypanosomiasis disease in cattle in an agropastoral community in southwest Ethiopia to illustrate how such problems may be addressed. The analysis combines physiologically based demographic models of pasture, cattle, and pastoralists and a bioeconomic model that includes the demographic models as dynamic constraints in the economic objective function that maximizes the utility of individual consumption under different level of disease risk in cattle. Field data and model analysis show that suppression of trypanosomiasis leads to increased cattle and human populations and to increased agricultural development. However, in the absence of sound management, these changes will lead to a decline in pasture quality and increase the risk from tick-borne diseases in cattle and malaria in humans that would threaten system sustainability and resilience. The analysis of these conflicting outcomes of trypanosomiasis suppression is used to illustrate the need for and utility of conceptual bioeconomic models to serve as a basis for developing policy for sustainable agropastoral resource management in sub-Saharan Africa.

Re-Conceptualizing Teachers' Continuous Professional Development within a New Paradigm of Change in the Indian Context: An Analysis of Literature and Policy Documents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Subitha, G. V.

2018-01-01

Located within the context of Indian education reforms, this study is a critique of the current model of continuous professional development of teachers. The study, by reviewing national policy documents and research literature, argues that there is a need to re-conceptualize and re-define the current model of professional development of teachers.…

Development and application of earth system models.

PubMed

Prinn, Ronald G

2013-02-26

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

Development and application of earth system models

PubMed Central

Prinn, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important “systems” problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981–2000 to 2091–2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether “climate engineering” is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better. PMID:22706645

Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.

2015-03-23

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on themore » behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.« less

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

A Dynamic Model of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder for Military Personnel and Veterans.

PubMed

Ghaffarzadegan, Navid; Ebrahimvandi, Alireza; Jalali, Mohammad S

2016-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) stands out as a major mental illness; however, little is known about effective policies for mitigating the problem. The importance and complexity of PTSD raise critical questions: What are the trends in the population of PTSD patients among military personnel and veterans in the postwar era? What policies can help mitigate PTSD? To address these questions, we developed a system dynamics simulation model of the population of military personnel and veterans affected by PTSD. The model includes both military personnel and veterans in a "system of systems." This is a novel aspect of our model, since many policies implemented at the military level will potentially influence (and may have side effects on) veterans and the Department of Veterans Affairs. The model is first validated by replicating the historical data on PTSD prevalence among military personnel and veterans from 2000 to 2014 (datasets from the Department of Defense, the Institute of Medicine, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and other sources). The model is then used for health policy analysis. Our results show that, in an optimistic scenario based on the status quo of deployment to intense/combat zones, estimated PTSD prevalence among veterans will be at least 10% during the next decade. The model postulates that during wars, resiliency-related policies are the most effective for decreasing PTSD. In a postwar period, current health policy interventions (e.g., screening and treatment) have marginal effects on mitigating the problem of PTSD, that is, the current screening and treatment policies must be revolutionized to have any noticeable effect. Furthermore, the simulation results show that it takes a long time, on the order of 40 years, to mitigate the psychiatric consequences of a war. Policy and financial implications of the findings are discussed.

A Dynamic Model of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder for Military Personnel and Veterans

PubMed Central

Ghaffarzadegan, Navid; Ebrahimvandi, Alireza; Jalali, Mohammad S.

2016-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) stands out as a major mental illness; however, little is known about effective policies for mitigating the problem. The importance and complexity of PTSD raise critical questions: What are the trends in the population of PTSD patients among military personnel and veterans in the postwar era? What policies can help mitigate PTSD? To address these questions, we developed a system dynamics simulation model of the population of military personnel and veterans affected by PTSD. The model includes both military personnel and veterans in a “system of systems.” This is a novel aspect of our model, since many policies implemented at the military level will potentially influence (and may have side effects on) veterans and the Department of Veterans Affairs. The model is first validated by replicating the historical data on PTSD prevalence among military personnel and veterans from 2000 to 2014 (datasets from the Department of Defense, the Institute of Medicine, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and other sources). The model is then used for health policy analysis. Our results show that, in an optimistic scenario based on the status quo of deployment to intense/combat zones, estimated PTSD prevalence among veterans will be at least 10% during the next decade. The model postulates that during wars, resiliency-related policies are the most effective for decreasing PTSD. In a postwar period, current health policy interventions (e.g., screening and treatment) have marginal effects on mitigating the problem of PTSD, that is, the current screening and treatment policies must be revolutionized to have any noticeable effect. Furthermore, the simulation results show that it takes a long time, on the order of 40 years, to mitigate the psychiatric consequences of a war. Policy and financial implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:27716776

A review of network analysis terminology and its application to foot-and-mouth disease modelling and policy development.

PubMed

Dubé, C; Ribble, C; Kelton, D; McNab, B

2009-04-01

Livestock movements are important in spreading infectious diseases and many countries have developed regulations that require farmers to report livestock movements to authorities. This has led to the availability of large amounts of data for analysis and inclusion in computer simulation models developed to support policy formulation. Social network analysis has become increasingly popular to study and characterize the networks resulting from the movement of livestock from farm-to-farm and through other types of livestock operations. Network analysis is a powerful tool that allows one to study the relationships created among these operations, providing information on the role that they play in acquiring and spreading infectious diseases, information that is not readily available from more traditional livestock movement studies. Recent advances in the study of real-world complex networks are now being applied to veterinary epidemiology and infectious disease modelling and control. A review of the principles of network analysis and of the relevance of various complex network theories to infectious disease modelling and control is presented in this paper.

Early College High Schools: Model Policy Components. Policy Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinth, Jennifer

2016-01-01

An alarming convergence of factors--diminishing percentages of high school graduates enrolling immediately in postsecondary education, traditionally underserved students comprising a growing proportion of the overall U.S. school population, and projections that more occupations in the future will need education beyond high school--suggest that…

A credit policy approach in a two-warehouse inventory model for deteriorating items with price- and stock-dependent demand under partial backlogging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, Gobinda Chandra; Khan, Md. Al-Amin; Shaikh, Ali Akbar

2018-04-01

Advertisement of the product is an important factor in inventory analysis. Also, price and stock have an important role to attract more customers in the competitive business situations. Trade credit policy is another important role in inventory analysis. We have combined these three factors together in a two-warehouse inventory model and represented it mathematically. In addition, we have added deteriorating factor of our proposed problem with price- and stock-dependent demand under partial backlogged shortage and solved. The frequency of advertisement is considered constant for a year in this paper. The proposed model is highly nonlinear in nature. Due to highly nonlinearity, we could not find the closed form solution. In this paper, trade credit facility is taken in the perspective of retailer, and all the possible cases and subcases of the model are discussed and solved using lingo 10.0 software. The results of sensitivity analysis prove the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Scientific analysis is essential to assess biofuel policy effects: in response to the paper by Kim and Dale on "Indirect land use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kline, Keith L; Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Dale, Virginia H

2011-01-01

Vigorous debate on the effects of biofuels derives largely from the changes in land use estimated using economic models designed mainly for the analysis of agricultural trade and markets. The models referenced for land-use change (LUC) analysis in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Final Rule on the Renewable Fuel Standard include GTAP, FAPRI-CARD, and FASOM. To address bioenergy impacts, these models were expanded and modified to facilitate simulations of hypothesized LUC. However, even when models use similar basic assumptions and data, the range of LUC results can vary by ten-fold or more. While the market dynamics simulated in these modelsmore » include processes that are important in estimating effects of biofuel policies, the models have not been validated for estimating land-use changes and employ crucial assumptions and simplifications that contradict empirical evidence.« less

Reaching Healthy People 2010 by 2013

PubMed Central

Levy, David T.; Mabry, Patricia L.; Graham, Amanda L.; Orleans, C. Tracy; Abrams, David B.

2010-01-01

Background Healthy People 2010 (HP 2010) set as a goal to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 12% by 2010. Purpose This paper uses simulation modeling to examine the effects of three tobacco control policies and cessation treatment policies—alone and in conjunction—on population smoking prevalence. Methods Building on previous versions of the SimSmoke model, the effects of a defined set of policies on quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness are estimated as potential levers to reduce smoking prevalence. The analysis considers the effects of (1) price increases through cigarette tax increases, (2) smokefree indoor air laws, (3) mass media/educational policies, and (4) evidence-based and promising cessation treatment policies. Results Evidence-based cessation treatment policies have the strongest effect, boosting the population quit rate by 78.8% in relative terms. Treatment policies are followed by cigarette tax increases (65.9%), smokefree air laws (31.8%), and mass media/educational policies (18.2%). Relative to the status quo in 2020, the model projects that smoking prevalence is reduced by 14.3% by a nationwide tax increase of $2.00, by 7.2% by smokefree laws, by 4.7% by mass media/educational policies, and by 16.5% by cessation treatment policies alone. Implementing all of the above policies in tandem would increase the quit rate by 296% such that the HP 2010 smoking prevalence goal of 12% is reached by 2013. Conclusions The impact of a combination of policies led to some surprisingly optimistic possible futures in lowering smoking prevalence to 12% within just several years. Simulation models can be a useful tool to evaluate complex scenarios where policies are implemented in tandem and for which there are limited data. PMID:20176310

The Third Phase of AQMEII: Evaluation Strategy and Multi-Model Performance Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative) is an extraordinary effort promoting policy-relevant research on regional air quality model evaluation across the European and North American atmospheric modelling communities, providing the ideal platform for advanci...

Policy analysis from first principles

PubMed Central

Moss, Scott

2002-01-01

The argument of this paper is predicated on the view that social science should start with observation and the specification of a problem to be solved. On that basis, the appropriate properties and conditions of application of relevant tools of analysis should be defined. Evidence is adduced from data for sales volumes and values of a disparate range of goods to show that frequency distributions are commonly fat-tailed. This result implies that any stable population distribution will generally have infinite variance and perhaps undefined mean. Models with agents that reason about their behavior and are influenced by, but do not imitate, other agents known to them will typically generate fat-tailed time series data. A simulation model of intermediated exchange is reported that is populated by such agents and yields the same type of fat-tailed time series and cross-sectional data that is found in data for fast moving consumer goods and for retail outlets. This result supports the proposition that adaptive agent models of markets with agents that reason and are socially embedded have the same statistical signatures as real markets. Whereas this statistical signature precludes any conventional hypothesis testing or forecasting, these models do offer unique opportunities for validation on the basis of domain expertise and qualitative data. Perhaps the most striking conclusion is that neither current social theory nor any similar construct will ever support an effective policy analysis. However, adaptive agent modeling is an effective substitute when embedded in a wider policy analysis procedure. PMID:12011405

Ten years after "Worrying trends in econophysics": developments and current challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ormerod, Paul

2016-12-01

Econophysics has made a number of important additions to scientific knowledge. Yet it continues to lack influence with both economists and policy makers. Ten years ago, I and three other economists sympathetic to econophysics wrote a paper on worrying trends within the discipline. For example, its lack of awareness of the economics literature, and shortfalls in the use of statistical analysis. These continue to be obstacles to wider acceptance by economists. Like all agents, policy makers respond to incentives, and economists understand this very well. Much of the econophysics community appears to think that simply doing good science is sufficient to have the work recognised, rather than relating to the motivations and incentives of policy makers. Nevertheless, econophysics now has three major opportunities to advance knowledge in areas where policy makers perceive weaknesses in what they are presented with by economists. All can benefit from the analysis of Big Data. The first is a core model of agent behaviour which is more relevant to cyber society than the rational agent model of economics. Second, extending our understanding of the business cycle, primarily by incorporating the importance of networks into models. Third, devising proper measures of output in cyber society.

A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.

PubMed

Delgado, João; Pollard, Simon; Snary, Emma; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Phil

2013-08-01

Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Prohibition, regulation or laissez faire: The policy trade-offs of cannabis policy.

PubMed

Rogeberg, Ole

2018-06-01

Trade-offs are central to the cannabis policy debate. Prohibition and strict regulation may help reduce the physical, mental and social harms of cannabis consumption, but at the cost of increasing the harms from illegal markets and reducing consumption benefits. An economic model clarifies how these costs and benefits relate to policy and connects them to observable prices and tax-levels given the assumptions of the analysis. These model- based arguments are related to the ongoing academic policy debate. While some arguments from this literature modify the interpretation of the model (e.g., due to dependence, cognitive biases and market structure), the literature often fails to appropriately account for the magnitude of the policy costs and benefits identified. Taking various caveats into account, the framework indicates that a strict regulation would likely be preferable to prohibition given current estimates of excess harms (externalities and internalities) from cannabis use. While cannabis prohibition appears difficult to justify within an economic regulatory framework, risks from industry influence, policy ratchet effects, and human "decision-making flaws" speak to the need for caution and strong regulation when implementing legal regimes. Copyright © 2018 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining deterrence of adult sex crimes: A semi-parametric intervention time series approach.

PubMed

Park, Jin-Hong; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; Letourneau, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Motivated by recent developments on dimension reduction (DR) techniques for time series data, the association of a general deterrent effect towards South Carolina (SC)'s registration and notification (SORN) policy for preventing sex crimes was examined. Using adult sex crime arrestee data from 1990 to 2005, the the idea of Central Mean Subspace (CMS) is extended to intervention time series analysis (CMS-ITS) to model the sequential intervention effects of 1995 (the year SC's SORN policy was initially implemented) and 1999 (the year the policy was revised to include online notification) on the time series spectrum. The CMS-ITS model estimation was achieved via kernel smoothing techniques, and compared to interrupted auto-regressive integrated time series (ARIMA) models. Simulation studies and application to the real data underscores our model's ability towards achieving parsimony, and to detect intervention effects not earlier determined via traditional ARIMA models. From a public health perspective, findings from this study draw attention to the potential general deterrent effects of SC's SORN policy. These findings are considered in light of the overall body of research on sex crime arrestee registration and notification policies, which remain controversial.

A socio-historical approach to policy analysis: the case of the Brazilian Workers' Food Policy.

PubMed

Costa-Souza, Jamacy; Vieira-da-Silva, Ligia Maria; Pinell, Patrice

2018-02-05

Policy analyses based on traditional or structuralist definitions of the state are important, but they have some limitations for explaining processes related to policymaking, implementation, and results. Bourdieusian sociology links the analysis to objective and subjective dimensions of social practices and can help elucidate these phenomena. This article provides such empirical evidence by analyzing the social genesis of a Brazilian policy that currently serves 18 million workers and was established by the state in 1976 through the Fiscal Incentives Program for Workers' Nutrition (PIFAT/PAT). The study linked the analysis of the trajectory of social agents involved in the policy's formulation to the historical conditions that allowed the policy to exist in the first place. Although the literature treats the policy as a workers' food program (PAT), the current study showed that it actually represented a new model for paying financial subsidies to companies that provided food to their employees, meanwhile upgrading the commercial market for collective meals. The study further showed that the program emerged as an administrative policy, but linked to economic agents. The program became a specific social space in which issues related to workers' nutrition became secondary, but useful for disguising what had been an explicit side of its genesis, namely its essentially fiscal nature.

The inter-section of political history and health policy in Asia--the historical foundations for health policy analysis.

PubMed

Grundy, John; Hoban, Elizabeth; Allender, Steve; Annear, Peter

2014-09-01

One of the challenges for health reform in Asia is the diverse set of socio-economic and political structures, and the related variability in the direction and pace of health systems and policy reform. This paper aims to make comparative observations and analysis of health policy reform in the context of historical change, and considers the implications of these findings for the practice of health policy analysis. We adopt an ecological model for analysis of policy development, whereby health systems are considered as dynamic social constructs shaped by changing political and social conditions. Utilizing historical, social scientific and health literature, timelines of health and history for five countries (Cambodia, Myanmar, Mongolia, North Korea and Timor Leste) are mapped over a 30-50 year period. The case studies compare and contrast key turning points in political and health policy history, and examines the manner in which these turning points sets the scene for the acting out of longer term health policy formation, particularly with regard to the managerial domains of health policy making. Findings illustrate that the direction of health policy reform is shaped by the character of political reform, with countries in the region being at variable stages of transition from monolithic and centralized administrations, towards more complex management arrangements characterized by a diversity of health providers, constituency interest and financing sources. The pace of reform is driven by a country's institutional capability to withstand and manage transition shocks of post conflict rehabilitation and emergence of liberal economic reforms in an altered governance context. These findings demonstrate that health policy analysis needs to be informed by a deeper understanding and questioning of the historical trajectory and political stance that sets the stage for the acting out of health policy formation, in order that health systems function optimally along their own historical pathways. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Interview Study of Why Parents Conduct Intensive ABA Home Training for Their Child with Autism Spectrum Disorder. An Analysis from the Lens of the Dialectical Disability Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersen, Esther Ravn; Bøttcher, Louise; Dammeyer, Jesper

2017-01-01

The number of parents undertaking an intensive home training programme of children with disabilities (e.g. Applied Behavioural Analysis) has increased. It reveals a paradox in current disability research and policies. On the one hand, policies in general are aimed at inclusion through movement of social barriers for participation, grounded in the…

Bio-fuels energy policy and grain transportation flows : implications for inland waterways and short sea shipping.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-15

This project develops a foundation for analysis of the effects of U.S. biofuel energy policy on domestic : and international grain flows and patterns. The primary deliverable of this project is an updated and : expanded spatial equilibrium model of w...

Prospective Teachers' Perceptions on Education Policy: A Metaphor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sezer, Senol

2018-01-01

This study aiming to determine the metaphorical perceptions of prospective teachers regarding Turkey's education policies was modelled in the 'phenomenological pattern' which one of the qualitative research methods. The study group was 150 prospective teachers. Data was collected using a metaphor form and via focus group interviews. Descriptive…

Nuclear Proliferation: A Unit for Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernekes, William R.

1990-01-01

Using Argentina as a sample case study, presents a classroom unit designed to explain the implications for world peace of nuclear weapons development. Employs a policy analysis model to make an indepth examination of the values underlying all government policy decisions. Includes unit topics and procedures for the exercise. (NL)

The International Alcohol Control (IAC) study-evaluating the impact of alcohol policies.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally; Meier, Petra; MacKintosh, Anne M; Brown, Abraham; Hastings, Gerard; Thamarangsi, Thaksaphon; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Chun, Sungsoo; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; You, Ru Q

2012-08-01

This paper describes a new multicountry collaborative project to assess the impact of alcohol control policy. Longitudinal surveys of drinkers in a number of participating countries and analysis of the policy context allow for the assessment of change over time within countries and comparison between countries. The design of the study is modeled on the International Tobacco Control study and aims to assess the impact of alcohol policies in different cultural contexts on policy-related behaviors and alcohol consumption. A survey instrument and protocol for policy analysis have been developed by the initial participating countries: England, Scotland, Thailand, South Korea, and New Zealand. The first round of data collection is scheduled for 2011-2012. The survey instrument (International Alcohol Control [IAC] survey) measures key policy relevant behaviors: place and time of purchase, amounts purchased and price paid; ease of access to alcohol purchase; alcohol marketing measures; social supply; perceptions of alcohol affordability and availability and salience of price; perceptions of enforcement; people's experiences with specific alcohol restrictions; support for policy and consumption (typical quantity, frequency using beverage and location-specific measures). The Policy Analysis Protocol (PoLAP) assesses relevant aspects of the policy environment including regulation and implementation. It has proved feasible to design instruments to collect detailed data on behaviors relevant to alcohol policy change and to assess the policy environment in different cultural settings. In a policy arena in which the interest groups and stakeholders have different perceptions of appropriate policy responses to alcohol-related harm, a robust methodology to assess the impact of policy will contribute to the debate. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Watermark: An Application and Methodology and Application for Interactive and intelligent Decision Support for Groundwater Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.; Wagner, K.; Schwartz, S.; Gentle, J. N., Jr.

2016-12-01

Critical water resources face the effects of historic drought, increased demand, and potential contamination, the need has never been greater to develop resources to effectively communicate conservation and protection across a broad audience and geographical area. The Watermark application and macro-analysis methodology merges topical analysis of context rich corpus from policy texts with multi-attributed solution sets from integrated models of water resource and other subsystems, such as mineral, food, energy, or environmental systems to construct a scalable, robust, and reproducible approach for identifying links between policy and science knowledge bases. The Watermark application is an open-source, interactive workspace to support science-based visualization and decision making. Designed with generalization in mind, Watermark is a flexible platform that allows for data analysis and inclusion of large datasets with an interactive front-end capable of connecting with other applications as well as advanced computing resources. In addition, the Watermark analysis methodology offers functionality that streamlines communication with non-technical users for policy, education, or engagement with groups around scientific topics of societal relevance. The technology stack for Watermark was selected with the goal of creating a robust and dynamic modular codebase that can be adjusted to fit many use cases and scale to support usage loads that range between simple data display to complex scientific simulation-based modelling and analytics. The methodology uses to topical analysis and simulation-optimization to systematically analyze the policy and management realities of resource systems and explicitly connect the social and problem contexts with science-based and engineering knowledge from models. A case example demonstrates use in a complex groundwater resources management study highlighting multi-criteria spatial decision making and uncertainty comparisons.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY (CMAQ) MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

CMAQ model research and development is currently following two tracks at the Atmospheric Modeling Division of the USEPA. Public releases of the community model system for research and policy analysis is continuing on an annual interval with the latest release scheduled for Augus...

The Colorado Crisis Education and Response Network: an analysis of policy and practices.

PubMed

Crepeau-Hobson, Franci; Drennen, Curt

2011-01-01

The Federal government has recognized the importance of including behavioral health in disaster response plans and policies. Many states have responded to these directives with the development and implementation of disaster behavioral health response teams. The Colorado Crisis Education and Response Network (CoCERN) is a statewide asset that is based in community partnerships formed to deliver effective, efficient, and professional disaster behavioral health services to communities impacted by a disaster Using the K. McInnis-Dittrich model of policy analysis, this paper analyzes this approach to disaster behavioral health response. Strengths and weaknesses of the program, as well as implications for practice are discussed.

Design and application of a technologically explicit hybrid energy-economy policy model with micro and macro economic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bataille, Christopher G. F.

2005-11-01

Are further energy efficiency gains, or more recently greenhouse gas reductions, expensive or cheap? Analysts provide conflicting advice to policy makers based on divergent modelling perspectives, a 'top-down/bottom-up debate' in which economists use equation based models that equilibrate markets by maximizing consumer welfare, and technologists use technology simulation models that minimize the financial cost of providing energy services. This thesis summarizes a long term research project to find a middle ground between these two positions that is more useful to policy makers. Starting with the individual components of a behaviourally realistic and technologically explicit simulation model (ISTUM---Inter Sectoral Technology Use Model), or "hybrid", the individual sectors of the economy are linked using a framework of micro and macro economic feedbacks. These feedbacks are taken from the economic theory that informs the computable general equilibrium (CGE) family of models. Speaking in the languages of both economists and engineers, the resulting "physical" equilibrium model of Canada (CIMS---Canadian Integrated Modeling System), equilibrates energy and end-product markets, including imports and exports, for seven regions and 15 economic sectors, including primary industry, manufacturing, transportation, commerce, residences, governmental infrastructure and the energy supply sectors. Several different policy experiments demonstrate the value-added of the model and how its results compare to top-down and bottom-up practice. In general, the results show that technical adjustments make up about half the response to simulated energy policy, and macroeconomic demand adjustments the other half. Induced technical adjustments predominate with minor policies, while the importance of macroeconomic demand adjustment increases with the strength of the policy. Results are also shown for an experiment to derive estimates of future elasticity of substitution (ESUB) and autonomous energy efficiency indices (AEEI) from the model, parameters that could be used in long-run computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The thesis concludes with a summary of the strengths and weakness of the new model as a policy tool, a work plan for its further improvement, and a discussion of the general potential for technologically explicit general equilibrium modelling.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

2016-12-01

The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

Strategic Analysis of Terrorism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arce, Daniel G.; Sandler, Todd

Two areas that are increasingly studied in the game-theoretic literature on terrorism and counterterrorism are collective action and asymmetric information. One contribution of this chapter is a survey and extension of continuous policy models with differentiable payoff functions. In this way, policies can be characterized as strategic substitutes (e. g., proactive measures), or strategic complements (e. g., defensive measures). Mixed substitute-complement models are also introduced. We show that the efficiency of counterterror policy depends upon (i) the strategic substitutes-complements characterization, and (ii) who initiates the action. Surprisingly, in mixed-models the dichotomy between individual and collective action may disappear. A second contribution is the consideration of a signaling model where indiscriminant spectacular terrorist attacks may erode terrorists’ support among its constituency, and proactive government responses can create a backlash effect in favor of terrorists. A novel equilibrium of this model reflects the well-documented ineffectiveness of terrorism in achieving its stated goals.

Cleanliness Policy Implementation: Evaluating Retribution Model to Rise Public Satisfaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dailiati, Surya; Hernimawati; Prihati; Chintia Utami, Bunga

2018-05-01

This research is based on the principal issues concerning the evaluation of cleanliness retribution policy which has not been optimally be able to improve the Local Revenue of Pekanbaru City and has not improved the cleanliness of Pekanbaru City. It was estimated to be caused by the performance of Garden and Sanitation Department are not in accordance with the requirement of society of Pekanbaru City. The research method used in this study is a mixed method with sequential exploratory strategy. The data collection used are observation, interview and documentation for qualitative research as well as questionnaires for quantitative research. The collected data were analyzed with interactive model of Miles and Huberman for qualitative research and multiple regression analysis for quantitative research. The research result indicated that the model of cleanliness policy implementation that can increase of PAD Pekanbaru City and be able to improve people’s satisfaction divided into two (2) which are the evaluation model and the society satisfaction model. The evaluation model influence by criteria/variable of effectiveness, efficiency, adequacy, equity, responsiveness, and appropriateness, while the society satisfaction model influence by variables of society satisfaction, intentions, goals, plans, programs, and appropriateness of cleanliness retribution collection policy.

One stop crisis centres: A policy analysis of the Malaysian response to intimate partner violence.

PubMed

Colombini, Manuela; Ali, Siti Hawa; Watts, Charlotte; Mayhew, Susannah H

2011-06-21

This article aims to investigate the processes, actors and other influencing factors behind the development and the national scale-up of the One Stop Crisis Centre (OSCC) policy and the subsequent health model for violence-response. Methods used included policy analysis of legal, policy and regulatory framework documents, and in-depth interviews with key informants from governmental and non-governmental organisations in two States of Malaysia. The findings show that women's NGOs and health professionals were instrumental in the formulation and scaling-up of the OSCC policy. However, the subsequent breakdown of the NGO-health coalition negatively impacted on the long-term implementation of the policy, which lacked financial resources and clear policy guidance from the Ministry of Health. The findings confirm that a clearly-defined partnership between NGOs and health staff can be very powerful for influencing the legal and policy environment in which health care services for intimate partner violence are developed. It is critical to gain high level support from the Ministry of Health in order to institutionalise the violence-response across the entire health care system. Without clear operational details and resources policy implementation cannot be fully ensured and taken to scale.

The Weakness of Stern Alcohol Control Policies.

PubMed

Poikolainen, Kari

2016-01-01

To test the total consumption model claiming that alcohol-related ill health can best be diminished by a policy of severe restrictions and high price. The associations between an index measuring the severity of the alcohol policy, total alcohol consumption and number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to alcohol were compared in 30 OECD countries in 2005. No significant correlations were found between alcohol policy index, alcohol consumption and the number of DALYs due to alcohol use. In regression analysis, alcohol policy index and alcohol consumption were not related to alcohol-related DALYs. Excise tax rate was not related to alcohol-related DALYs (25 countries with tax rate data). These findings suggest that the total consumption model fails. Alcohol-related ill health seems to be mainly due to alcohol dependence, both clinical and subclinical, not to moderate drinking. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Sutton, Matt; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Harrison, Mark

2017-05-01

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act: A Comparison of Model Results, The

EIA Publications

1999-01-01

This report describes the Energy Information Administration's use of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to evaluate the effects of the Administration's restructuring proposal using the parameter settings and assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS) analysis.

A model to create an efficient and equitable admission policy for patients arriving to the cardiothoracic ICU.

PubMed

Yang, Muer; Fry, Michael J; Raikhelkar, Jayashree; Chin, Cynthia; Anyanwu, Anelechi; Brand, Jordan; Scurlock, Corey

2013-02-01

To develop queuing and simulation-based models to understand the relationship between ICU bed availability and operating room schedule to maximize the use of critical care resources and minimize case cancellation while providing equity to patients and surgeons. Retrospective analysis of 6-month unit admission data from a cohort of cardiothoracic surgical patients, to create queuing and simulation-based models of ICU bed flow. Three different admission policies (current admission policy, shortest-processing-time policy, and a dynamic policy) were then analyzed using simulation models, representing 10 yr worth of potential admissions. Important output data consisted of the "average waiting time," a proxy for unit efficiency, and the "maximum waiting time," a surrogate for patient equity. A cardiothoracic surgical ICU in a tertiary center in New York, NY. Six hundred thirty consecutive cardiothoracic surgical patients admitted to the cardiothoracic surgical ICU. None. Although the shortest-processing-time admission policy performs best in terms of unit efficiency (0.4612 days), it did so at expense of patient equity prolonging surgical waiting time by as much as 21 days. The current policy gives the greatest equity but causes inefficiency in unit bed-flow (0.5033 days). The dynamic policy performs at a level (0.4997 days) 8.3% below that of the shortest-processing-time in average waiting time; however, it balances this with greater patient equity (maximum waiting time could be shortened by 4 days compared to the current policy). Queuing theory and computer simulation can be used to model case flow through a cardiothoracic operating room and ICU. A dynamic admission policy that looks at current waiting time and expected ICU length of stay allows for increased equity between patients with only minimum losses of efficiency. This dynamic admission policy would seem to be a superior in maximizing case-flow. These results may be generalized to other surgical ICUs.

Exploratory Modeling and the use of Simulation for Policy Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis Steven C. Barikes Prepared for the United States Army R A N D Approved for public release; distribution...Research, Vol. 39, No. 3, May-June 1991, pp. 355-365. Lipton, Richard J ., Thomas G. Marr, and J . Douglas Welsh, "Computational Approaches to Discovering...the Visual Cortex, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1985. / -30- Rothenberg, J ., N. Z. Shapiro, and C. Hefley, "A Propagative’ Approach to Sensitivity

Economic effect of restaurant smoking restrictions on restaurant business in Massachusetts, 1992 to 1998.

PubMed

Bartosch, William J; Pope, G C

2002-06-01

To determine if restaurant business declines or improves after the implementation of restrictive restaurant smoking policies. Analysis used a pre/post-quasi-experimental design that compared town meals tax receipts before and after the imposition of highly restrictive restaurant smoking policies in adopting versus non-adopting communities. The effect of restaurant smoking policies was estimated using a fixed effects regression model, entering a panel of 84 months of data for the 239 towns in the study. A separate model estimated the effect of restaurant smoking policies on establishments that served alcohol. Change in the trend in meals tax revenue (adjusted for population) following the implementation of highly restrictive restaurant smoking policies. The local adoption of restrictive restaurant smoking policies did not lead to a measurable deviation from the strong positive trend in revenue between 1992 and 1998 that restaurants in Massachusetts experienced. Controlling for other less restrictive restaurant smoking policies did not change this finding. Similar results were found for only those establishments that served alcoholic beverages. Highly restrictive restaurant smoking policies do not have a significant effect on a community's level of meal receipts, indicating that claims of community wide restaurant business decline under such policies are unwarranted.

Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu

2016-04-01

Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

Multilevel Factor Analysis by Model Segregation: New Applications for Robust Test Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schweig, Jonathan

2014-01-01

Measures of classroom environments have become central to policy efforts that assess school and teacher quality. This has sparked a wide interest in using multilevel factor analysis to test measurement hypotheses about classroom-level variables. One approach partitions the total covariance matrix and tests models separately on the…

Methods for integrated modeling of landscape change: Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System.

Treesearch

Jane L. Hayes; Alan. A. Ager; R. James Barbour

2004-01-01

The Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) links a number of resource, disturbance, and landscape simulations models to examine the interactions of vegetative succession, management, and disturbance with policy goals. The effects of natural disturbance like wildfire, herbivory, forest insects and diseases, as well as specific management actions are...

Unravelling networks in local public health policymaking in three European countries - a systems analysis.

PubMed

Spitters, Hilde P E M; Lau, Cathrine J; Sandu, Petru; Quanjel, Marcel; Dulf, Diana; Glümer, Charlotte; van Oers, Hans A M; van de Goor, Ien A M

2017-02-03

Facilitating and enhancing interaction between stakeholders involved in the policymaking process to stimulate collaboration and use of evidence, is important to foster the development of effective Health Enhancing Physical Activity (HEPA) policies. Performing an analysis of real-world policymaking processes will help reveal the complexity of a network of stakeholders. Therefore, the main objectives were to unravel the stakeholder network in the policy process by conducting three systems analyses, and to increase insight into the similarities and differences in the policy processes of these European country cases. A systems analysis of the local HEPA policymaking process was performed in three European countries involved in the 'REsearch into POlicy to enhance Physical Activity' (REPOPA) project, resulting in three schematic models showing the main stakeholders and their relationships. The models were used to compare the systems, focusing on implications with respect to collaboration and use of evidence in local HEPA policymaking. Policy documents and relevant webpages were examined and main stakeholders were interviewed. The systems analysis in each country identified the main stakeholders involved and their position and relations in the policymaking process. The Netherlands and Denmark were the most similar and both differed most from Romania, especially at the level of accountability of the local public authorities for local HEPA policymaking. The categories of driving forces underlying the relations between stakeholders were formal relations, informal interaction and knowledge exchange. A systems analysis providing detailed descriptions of positions and relations in the stakeholder network in local level HEPA policymaking is rather unique in this area. The analyses are useful when a need arises for increased interaction, collaboration and use of knowledge between stakeholders in the local HEPA network, as they provide an overview of the stakeholders involved and their mutual relations. This information can be an important starting point to enhance the uptake of evidence and build more effective public health policies.

Task-sharing or public finance for the expansion of surgical access in rural Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Shrime, Mark G; Verguet, Stéphane; Johansson, Kjell Arne; Desalegn, Dawit; Jamison, Dean T; Kruk, Margaret E

2016-07-01

Despite a high burden of surgical disease, access to surgical services in low- and middle-income countries is often limited. In line with the World Health Organization's current focus on universal health coverage and equitable access to care, we examined how policies to expand access to surgery in rural Ethiopia would impact health, impoverishment and equity. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis was performed. Deterministic and stochastic models of surgery in rural Ethiopia were constructed, utilizing pooled estimates of costs and probabilities from national surveys and published literature. Model calibration and validation were performed against published estimates, with sensitivity analyses on model assumptions to check for robustness. Outcomes of interest were the number of deaths averted, the number of cases of poverty averted and the number of cases of catastrophic expenditure averted for each policy, divided across wealth quintiles. Health benefits, financial risk protection and equity appear to be in tension in the expansion of access to surgical care in rural Ethiopia. Health benefits from each of the examined policies accrued primarily to the poor. However, without travel vouchers, many policies also induced impoverishment in the poor while providing financial risk protection to the rich, calling into question the equitable distribution of benefits by these policies. Adding travel vouchers removed the impoverishing effects of a policy but decreased the health benefit that could be bought per dollar spent. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A dynamic model of soil salinity and drainage generation in irrigated agriculture: A framework for policy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinar, Ariel; Aillery, Marcel P.; Moore, Michael R.

1993-06-01

This paper presents a dynamic model of irrigated agriculture that accounts for drainage generation and salinity accumulation. Critical model relationships involving crop production, soil salinity, and irrigation drainage are based on newly estimated functions derived from lysimeter field tests. The model allocates land and water inputs over time based on an intertemporal profit maximization objective function and soil salinity accumulation process. The model is applied to conditions in the San Joaquin Valley of California, where environmental degradation from irrigation drainage has become a policy issue. Findings indicate that in the absence of regulation, drainage volumes increase over time before reaching a steady state as increased quantities of water are allocated to leaching soil salts. The model is used to evaluate alternative drainage abatement scenarios involving drainage quotas and taxes, water supply quotas and taxes, and irrigation technology subsidies. In our example, direct drainage policies are more cost-effective in reducing drainage than policies operating indirectly through surface water use, although differences in cost efficiency are relatively small. In some cases, efforts to control drainage may result in increased soil salinity accumulation, with implications for long-term cropland productivity. While policy adjustments may alter the direction and duration of convergence to a steady state, findings suggest that a dynamic model specification may not be necessary due to rapid convergence to a comon steady state under selected scenarios.

A general health policy model: update and applications.

PubMed Central

Kaplan, R M; Anderson, J P

1988-01-01

This article describes the development of a General Health Policy Model that can be used for program evaluation, population monitoring, clinical research, and policy analysis. An important component of the model, the Quality of Well-being scale (QWB) combines preference-weighted measures of symptoms and functioning to provide a numerical point-in-time expression of well-being, ranging from 0 for death to 1.0 for asymptomatic optimum functioning. The level of wellness at particular points in time is governed by the prognosis (transition rates or probabilities) generated by the underlying disease or injury under different treatment (control) variables. Well-years result from integrating the level of wellness, or health-related quality of life, over the life expectancy. Several issues relevant to the application of the model are discussed. It is suggested that a quality of life measure need not have separate components for social and mental health. Social health has been difficult to define; social support may be a poor criterion for resource allocation; and some evidence suggests that aspects of mental health are captured by the general measure. Although it has been suggested that measures of child health should differ from those used for adults, we argue that a separate conceptualization of child health creates new problems for policy analysis. After offering several applications of the model for the evaluation of prevention programs, we conclude that many of the advantages of general measures have been overlooked and should be given serious consideration in future studies. PMID:3384669

Challenges for the formulation, implantation and implementation of a National Health Surveillance Policy in Brazil.

PubMed

Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Paz, Elisabete Pimenta Araújo; Dutra, Viviane Gomes Parreira; Campos, Carlos Eduardo Aguilera

2017-05-01

This article examines the evolution of health surveillance policies as actions, models and systems, as well as contributing to the debate about the constitution of the National Health Surveillance Policy (PNVS). The article discusses conceptual elements regarding the notion of health surveillance and its evolution in Brazil and a trajectory is provided in relation to the construction of care models, particularly after the creation of the Unified Health System (SUS). The possibility of using the framework of public policies based on evidence, and methods for analyzing health situations, such as spatial analysis and time series, are highlighted. To conclude, questions are raised regarding the effective creation of the PNVS, and the challenges that the federal executive faces in driving this process.

An Introduction to Solar Decision-Making Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mow, Benjamin

2017-09-12

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offers a variety of models and analysis tools to help decision makers evaluate and make informed decisions about solar projects, policies, and programs. This fact sheet aims to help decision makers determine which NREL tool to use for a given solar project or policy question, depending on its scope.

An Analysis of Educational Policy: Implications for Minority Community Concerns.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, J. John, III; Ogle, Terry

The paper presents a detailed overview of educational policymaking and discusses the need for minority groups to be involved in policy formation. The first section describes the distinguishing characteristics of the main elements of the functions of administration and policymaking process. The second section examines the following three models of…

Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geels, Frank W.; Berkhout, Frans; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-06-01

Low-carbon transitions are long-term multi-faceted processes. Although integrated assessment models have many strengths for analysing such transitions, their mathematical representation requires a simplification of the causes, dynamics and scope of such societal transformations. We suggest that integrated assessment model-based analysis should be complemented with insights from socio-technical transition analysis and practice-based action research. We discuss the underlying assumptions, strengths and weaknesses of these three analytical approaches. We argue that full integration of these approaches is not feasible, because of foundational differences in philosophies of science and ontological assumptions. Instead, we suggest that bridging, based on sequential and interactive articulation of different approaches, may generate a more comprehensive and useful chain of assessments to support policy formation and action. We also show how these approaches address knowledge needs of different policymakers (international, national and local), relate to different dimensions of policy processes and speak to different policy-relevant criteria such as cost-effectiveness, socio-political feasibility, social acceptance and legitimacy, and flexibility. A more differentiated set of analytical approaches thus enables a more differentiated approach to climate policy making.

Content analysis to locate assistive technology in Queensland's motor injury insurance rehabilitation legislation and guidelines.

PubMed

Steel, Emily J

2018-06-08

Reforms to Australia's disability and rehabilitation sectors have espoused the potential of assistive technology as an enabler. As new insurance systems are being developed it is timely to examine the structure of existing systems. This exploratory study examined the policies guiding assistive technology provision in the motor accident insurance sector of one Australian state. Policy documents were analyzed iteratively with set of qualitative questions to understand the intent and interpretation of policies guiding assistive technology provision. Content analysis identified relevant sections and meaningful terminology, and context analysis explored the dominant perspectives informing policy. The concepts and language of assistive technology are not part of the policy frameworks guiding rehabilitation practice in Queensland's motor accident insurance sector. The definition of rehabilitation in the legislation is consistent contemporary international interpretations that focus on optimizing functioning in interaction with the environment. However, the supporting documents are focused on recovery from injuries where decisions are guided by clinical need and affordability. The policies frame rehabilitation in a medical model that assistive technology provision from the rehabilitation plan. The legislative framework provides opportunities to develop and improve assistive technology provision as part of an integrated approach to rehabilitation.

The role of geomatics in supporting sustainable development policy-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Aining

Sustainable development has been on national policy agendas since 1992 when Agenda 21, an international agreement on sustainable development, was signed by over 150 countries. A key to sustainable development policy-making is information. Spatial information is an integral part of this information pool given the spatial nature of sustainable development. Geomatics, a technology dealing specifically with spatial information, can play a major role in support of the policy-making process. This thesis is aimed at advancing this role. The thesis starts with a discussion of theories and methodologies for sustainable development. The policy process for sustainable development is characterized, followed by an analysis of the requirements of sustainable development policy-making for geomatics support. The current status of geomatics in meeting these requirements is then examined, and the challenges and potential for geomatics to further address the needs are identified. To deal with these challenges, an integrated solution, namely the development of an on-line national policy atlas for sustainable development, is proposed, with a focus to support policy action formulation. The thesis further addresses one of the major research topics required for the implementation of the proposed solution, namely the exploration of the feasibility of a spatial statistics approach to predictive modelling in support of policy scenario assessments. The study is based on the case of national climate change policy formulation, with a focus on the development of new light duty vehicle sales mix models in support of transportation fuel efficiency policy-making aimed at greenhouse gas reductions. The conceptual framework and methodology for the case study are followed by the presentation of outcomes including models and policy scenario forecasts. The case study has illustrated that a spatial statistics approach is not only feasible for the development of predictive models in support of policy-making, but also provides several unique advantages that could potentially improve sustainable development policymaking.

A system dynamics model of China's electric power structure adjustment with constraints of PM10 emission reduction.

PubMed

Guo, Xiaopeng; Ren, Dongfang; Guo, Xiaodan

2018-06-01

Recently, Chinese state environmental protection administration has brought out several PM10 reduction policies to control the coal consumption strictly and promote the adjustment of power structure. Under this new policy environment, a suitable analysis method is required to simulate the upcoming major shift of China's electric power structure. Firstly, a complete system dynamics model is built to simulate China's evolution path of power structure with constraints of PM10 reduction considering both technical and economical factors. Secondly, scenario analyses are conducted under different clean-power capacity growth rates to seek applicable policy guidance for PM10 reduction. The results suggest the following conclusions. (1) The proportion of thermal power installed capacity will decrease to 67% in 2018 with a dropping speed, and there will be an accelerated decline in 2023-2032. (2) The system dynamics model can effectively simulate the implementation of the policy, for example, the proportion of coal consumption in the forecast model is 63.3% (the accuracy rate is 95.2%), below policy target 65% in 2017. (3) China should promote clean power generation such as nuclear power to meet PM10 reduction target.

An Empirical Assessment of Defense Contractor Risk 1976-1984.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Model to evaluate the. Department of Defense contract pricing , financing, and profit policies . ’ D*’ ’ *NTV D? 7A’:: TA E *A l ..... -:- A-i SN 0102...defense con- tractor risk-return relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean-variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model ...relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean- variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model , mean-variance analysis of total

Reflections on Heckman and Pinto’s Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Econometric Analysis , Cambridge University Press, 477–490, 1995. Halpern, J. (1998). Axiomatizing causal reasoning. In Uncertainty in Artificial...Models, Structural Models and Econometric Policy Evaluation. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, 4779–4874. Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a...Reflections on Heckman and Pinto’s “Causal Analysis After Haavelmo” Judea Pearl University of California, Los Angeles Computer Science Department Los

Bayesian semi-parametric analysis of Poisson change-point regression models: application to policy making in Cali, Colombia.

PubMed

Park, Taeyoung; Krafty, Robert T; Sánchez, Alvaro I

2012-07-27

A Poisson regression model with an offset assumes a constant baseline rate after accounting for measured covariates, which may lead to biased estimates of coefficients in an inhomogeneous Poisson process. To correctly estimate the effect of time-dependent covariates, we propose a Poisson change-point regression model with an offset that allows a time-varying baseline rate. When the nonconstant pattern of a log baseline rate is modeled with a nonparametric step function, the resulting semi-parametric model involves a model component of varying dimension and thus requires a sophisticated varying-dimensional inference to obtain correct estimates of model parameters of fixed dimension. To fit the proposed varying-dimensional model, we devise a state-of-the-art MCMC-type algorithm based on partial collapse. The proposed model and methods are used to investigate an association between daily homicide rates in Cali, Colombia and policies that restrict the hours during which the legal sale of alcoholic beverages is permitted. While simultaneously identifying the latent changes in the baseline homicide rate which correspond to the incidence of sociopolitical events, we explore the effect of policies governing the sale of alcohol on homicide rates and seek a policy that balances the economic and cultural dependencies on alcohol sales to the health of the public.

Are social security policies for Chinese landless farmers really effective on health in the process of Chinese rapid urbanization? a study on the effect of social security policies for Chinese landless farmers on their health-related quality of life

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The continuing urbanization in China has resulted in a loss of land and rights among farmers. The social security of landless farmers has attracted considerable research attention. However, only few studies measure the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of landless farmers by employing scientific standardized scales. By using five-dimensional European quality of life (EQ-5D) scales, this study measures the HRQOL of landless farmers from a new perspective and examines how the social security policies affect their HRQOL. Methods This study is based on a 2013 household survey that has been conducted among 1,500 landless famers who are residing in six resettlement areas in three cities within the Yangtze River Delta region, namely, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Yangzhou. This study adopts EQ-5D scales to measure the HRQOL of these farmers. More than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and over 50% are not satisfied with their current social security policies. The health conditions and social security policies are analyzed by multinomial regression analysis and the relationship between these two factors are analyzed via structural equation modeling (SEM). Results First, the descriptive statistical analysis shows that more than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and that the largest proportion of these farmers are suffering from anxiety or depression, which is the most serious of the five dimensions. Second, multinomial regression analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies improves their living conditions, particularly in their capacity for self-care, in their ability to perform daily activities, and in the reduction of pain, anxiety, and depression. Third, SEM model analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. Among the five dimensions of EQ-5D, daily activities produce the greatest influence on the HRQOL of landless farmers. As regards social security policies, the land acquisition compensation policy and the employment security policy produce the greatest and weakest influences on the HRQOL of landless farmers, respectively. Conclusions The rapid urbanization in China has deprived many farmers of their lands and of the benefits of urbanization. These farmers are often in a disadvantaged position in the land acquisition process. Statistic analysis in this paper shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. The implementation and improvement of social security policies is very important for the long-term and sustainable development of these landless farmers. PMID:24433258

Are social security policies for Chinese landless farmers really effective on health in the process of Chinese rapid urbanization? A study on the effect of social security policies for Chinese landless farmers on their health-related quality of life.

PubMed

Liang, Ying; Lu, Wanyi; Wu, Wei

2014-01-15

The continuing urbanization in China has resulted in a loss of land and rights among farmers. The social security of landless farmers has attracted considerable research attention. However, only few studies measure the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of landless farmers by employing scientific standardized scales. By using five-dimensional European quality of life (EQ-5D) scales, this study measures the HRQOL of landless farmers from a new perspective and examines how the social security policies affect their HRQOL. This study is based on a 2013 household survey that has been conducted among 1,500 landless famers who are residing in six resettlement areas in three cities within the Yangtze River Delta region, namely, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Yangzhou. This study adopts EQ-5D scales to measure the HRQOL of these farmers. More than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and over 50% are not satisfied with their current social security policies. The health conditions and social security policies are analyzed by multinomial regression analysis and the relationship between these two factors are analyzed via structural equation modeling (SEM). First, the descriptive statistical analysis shows that more than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and that the largest proportion of these farmers are suffering from anxiety or depression, which is the most serious of the five dimensions. Second, multinomial regression analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies improves their living conditions, particularly in their capacity for self-care, in their ability to perform daily activities, and in the reduction of pain, anxiety, and depression. Third, SEM model analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. Among the five dimensions of EQ-5D, daily activities produce the greatest influence on the HRQOL of landless farmers. As regards social security policies, the land acquisition compensation policy and the employment security policy produce the greatest and weakest influences on the HRQOL of landless farmers, respectively. The rapid urbanization in China has deprived many farmers of their lands and of the benefits of urbanization. These farmers are often in a disadvantaged position in the land acquisition process. Statistic analysis in this paper shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. The implementation and improvement of social security policies is very important for the long-term and sustainable development of these landless farmers.

Analysis of the interrelationship of energy, economy, and environment: A model of a sustainable energy future for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boo, Kyung-Jin

The primary purpose of this dissertation is to provide the groundwork for a sustainable energy future in Korea. For this purpose, a conceptual framework of sustainable energy development was developed to provide a deeper understanding of interrelationships between energy, the economy, and the environment (E 3). Based on this theoretical work, an empirical simulation model was developed to investigate the ways in which E3 interact. This dissertation attempts to develop a unified concept of sustainable energy development by surveying multiple efforts to integrate various definitions of sustainability. Sustainable energy development should be built on the basis of three principles: ecological carrying capacity, economic efficiency, and socio-political equity. Ecological carrying capacity delineates the earth's resource constraints as well as its ability to assimilate wastes. Socio-political equity implies an equitable distribution of the benefits and costs of energy consumption and an equitable distribution of environmental burdens. Economic efficiency dictates efficient allocation of scarce resources. The simulation model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an environmental module and an economic module. Because the model is grounded on economic structural behaviorism, the dynamic nature of the current economy is effectively depicted and simulated through manipulating exogenous policy variables. This macro-economic model is used to simulate six major policy intervention scenarios. Major findings from these policy simulations were: (1) carbon taxes are the most effective means of reducing air-pollutant emissions; (2) sustainable energy development can be achieved through reinvestment of carbon taxes into energy efficiency and renewable energy programs; and (3) carbon taxes would increase a nation's welfare if reinvested in relevant areas. The policy simulation model, because it is based on neoclassical economics, has limitations such that it cannot fully account for socio-political realities (inter- and intra-generational equity) which are core feature of sustainability. Thus, alternative approaches based on qualitative analysis, such as the multi-criteria approach, will be required to complement the current policy simulation model.

National treatment systems in global perspective.

PubMed

Klingemann, H

1999-09-01

Drug policy development is mostly viewed as emerging within the nation state. Processes of diffusion of innovative policies have been neglected to a large extent. The comparative study of public policy has demonstrated, however, that diffusion is an important predictor of early policy adaptation. Thus, the analysis asks the general question of the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous effects on the development of drug policies in various countries. Specifically it describes the Swiss debate leading to the popular initiative on 'Youth Without Drugs' as well as the international reactions regarding its liberal outcome. Results of an expert survey show two broad types of reactions. There is one set of countries where chances for the introduction of limited heroin-prescription trials during the next 5 years are considered probable and a second set of countries which seems to be strictly status quo oriented. In the concluding section a model is suggested which systematically considers endogenous as well as exogenous predictors of 'soft' or 'hard' drug policy adoption. Results of a first tentative test of the model are encouraging for future empirical research on diffusion processes of drug policies.

Emergency department crowding in Singapore: Insights from a systems thinking approach.

PubMed

Schoenenberger, Lukas K; Bayer, Steffen; Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Mohanavalli, Rajagopal L; Lam, Sean Sw; Ong, Marcus Eh

2016-01-01

Emergency Department crowding is a serious and international health care problem that seems to be resistant to most well intended but often reductionist policy approaches. In this study, we examine Emergency Department crowding in Singapore from a systems thinking perspective using causal loop diagramming to visualize the systemic structure underlying this complex phenomenon. Furthermore, we evaluate the relative impact of three different policies in reducing Emergency Department crowding in Singapore: introduction of geriatric emergency medicine, expansion of emergency medicine training, and implementation of enhanced primary care. The construction of the qualitative causal loop diagram is based on consultations with Emergency Department experts, direct observation, and a thorough literature review. For the purpose of policy analysis, a novel approach, the path analysis, is applied. The path analysis revealed that both the introduction of geriatric emergency medicine and the expansion of emergency medicine training may be associated with undesirable consequences contributing to Emergency Department crowding. In contrast, enhancing primary care was found to be germane in reducing Emergency Department crowding; in addition, it has apparently no negative side effects, considering the boundary of the model created. Causal loop diagramming was a powerful tool for eliciting the systemic structure of Emergency Department crowding in Singapore. Additionally, the developed model was valuable in testing different policy options.

Modeling Joint Climate and Bioenergy Policies: Challenges of integrating economic and environmental data. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwinckel, C. M.; West, T. O.; de La Torre Ugarte, D.; Perlack, R.

2010-12-01

In the coming decades agriculture will be asked to play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and reducing our use of foreign oil. The Renewable Fuels Standard combined with possible climate legislation will alter the economic landscape effecting agricultural land use decisions. The joint implementation of these two policies could potentially work against one another. We have integrated biogeophysical data into the POLYSYS economic model to analyze the effects of climate change and bioenergy legislation upon regional land-use change, soil carbon, carbon emissions, biofuel production, and agricultural income. The purpose of the analysis was to use the integrated model to identify carbon and bioenergy policies that could act synergistically to meet Renewable Fuel Standard goals, reduce net emissions of carbon, and increase agricultural incomes. The heterogeneous nature of soils, crop yields, and management practices presented challenges to the modeling process. Regional variation in physical data can significantly affect economic land use decisions and patterns. For this reason, we disaggregated the economic component of the model to the county level, with sub-county soils and land-use data informing the county level decisions. Modeling carbon offset dynamics presented unique challenges, as the physical responses of local soils impact the economic incentives offered, and conversely, the resulting land-use changes impact characteristics of local soils. Additionally, using data from different resolution levels led to questions of appropriate scale of analysis. This presentation will describe the integrated model, present some significant results from our analysis, and discuss appropriate steps forward given what we learned.

A hybrid inventory management system respondingto regular demand and surge demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohammad S. Roni; Mingzhou Jin; Sandra D. Eksioglu

2014-06-01

This paper proposes a hybrid policy for a stochastic inventory system facing regular demand and surge demand. The combination of two different demand patterns can be observed in many areas, such as healthcare inventory and humanitarian supply chain management. The surge demand has a lower arrival rate but higher demand volume per arrival. The solution approach proposed in this paper incorporates the level crossing method and mixed integer programming technique to optimize the hybrid inventory policy with both regular orders and emergency orders. The level crossing method is applied to obtain the equilibrium distributions of inventory levels under a givenmore » policy. The model is further transformed into a mixed integer program to identify an optimal hybrid policy. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of parameters on the optimal inventory policy and minimum cost. Numerical results clearly show the benefit of using the proposed hybrid inventory model. The model and solution approach could help healthcare providers or humanitarian logistics providers in managing their emergency supplies in responding to surge demands.« less

Exploration of government policy structure which support and block energy transition process in indonesia using system dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destyanto, A. R.; Silalahi, T. D.; Hidayatno, A.

2017-11-01

System dynamic modeling is widely used to predict and simulate the energy system in several countries. One of the applications of system dynamics is to evaluate national energy policy alternatives, and energy efficiency analysis. Using system dynamic modeling, this research aims to evaluate the energy transition policy that has been implemented in Indonesia on the past conversion program of kerosene to LPG for household cook fuel consumption, which considered as successful energy transition program implemented since 2007. This research is important since Indonesia considered not yet succeeded to execute another energy transition program on conversion program of oil fuel to gas fuel for transportation that has started since 1989. The aim of this research is to explore which policy intervention that has significant contribution to support or even block the conversion program. Findings in this simulation show that policy intervention to withdraw the kerosene supply and government push to increase production capacity of the support equipment industries (gas stove, regulator, and LPG Cylinder) is the main influence on the success of the program conversion program.

Analysis of a government policy to address nursing shortage and nursing education quality.

PubMed

Abhicharttibutra, K; Kunaviktikul, W; Turale, S; Wichaikhum, O-A; Srisuphan, W

2017-03-01

A well-educated, sufficient nursing workforce improves population health and standards of nursing care. Analysing workforce policies assists nurses to learn from the past and develop better future policies. Describe policy-making processes in the first Thai government plan to increase nursing capacity and improve nursing education quality. A qualitative study employing Longest's model to examine policy-making processes. Data were obtained from 28 in-depth interviews with key informants, who had been committee members and former deans of nursing involved with the policy processes in the 1990s. Both qualitative and quantitative data were extracted from relevant documents, and content analysis employed with all data. Three policy phases were identified. Policy formulation, where three streams of problems, politics and policy resulted in identification of nursing shortage, changes of government incumbents and needing to increase nurse production; Policy implementation included creating methods of implementation, appointing responsible people and committees, creating operational plans, producing more nurses and faculty development projects and Policy modification which incorporated implementing the first Thai international doctoral degree in English, a collaborative programme between universities. Not all key informants could be accessed due to the passage of time. Findings are unique to Thailand but inform internationally of nurses' abilities and need to be involved in policy. Nurses were involved in all policy phases. While the policy produced positive developments in growing nursing capacity and education in the past, nursing shortages remained and are now acute in Thailand. Lessons learned from this policy analysis help explain why the nursing education and nursing shortage policy was legislated through the government agenda, and the active involvement of Thai nurses in this process. Nurses globally need to be at the policy-making table to try to reduce nursing shortages, and enhance practice and education environments. © 2016 International Council of Nurses.

Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for a large US automaker will be developed. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model will be constructed to calculate and compare the cost and benefits of PHEVs, conventional vehicles (CVs) and HEVs. Then a comprehensive literature review of PHEVs penetration rate studies will be developed to review and analyze the primary purposes, methods, and results of studies of PHEV market penetration. Finally a multi-criteria modeling system will incorporate results of the support model results. In this project, the models, analysis and results will provide a broader understanding of the benefits and costs of PHEV technology and the parties to whom those benefits accrue. The findings will provide important information for consumers, automakers and policy makers to understand and define HEVs and PHEVs costs, benefits, expected penetration rate and the preferred vehicle design and technology scenario to meet the requirements of policy, society, industry and consumers.

MODELS-3 INSTALLATION PROCEDURES FOR A PC WITH AN NT OPERATING SYSTEM (MODELS-3 VERSION 4.0)

EPA Science Inventory

Models-3 is a flexible software system designed to simplify the development and use of air quality models and other environmental decision support tools. It is designed for applications ranging from regulatory and policy analysis to understanding the complex interactions of at...

MODELS-3 INSTALLATION PROCEDURES FOR A PERSONAL COMPUTER WITH A NT OPERATING SYSTEM (MODELS-3 VERSION 4.1)

EPA Science Inventory

Models-3 is a flexible system designed to simplify the development and use of air quality models and other environmental decision support tools. It is designed for applications ranging from regulatory and policy analysis to understanding the complex interactions of atmospheric...

Design and Analysis of Scheduling Policies for Real-Time Computer Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

C. M. Krishna, "The Impact of Workload on the Reliability of Real-Time Processor Triads," to appear in Micro . Rel. [17] J.F. Kurose, "Performance... Processor Triads", to appear in Micro . Rel. "* J.F. Kurose. "Performance Analysis of Minimum Laxity Scheduling in Discrete Time Queue- ing Systems", to...exponentially distributed service times and deadlines. A similar model was developed for the ED policy for a single processor system under identical

Support for smoke-free policies in the Cyprus hospitality industry.

PubMed

Lazuras, Lambros; Savva, Christos S; Talias, Michael A; Soteriades, Elpidoforos S

2015-12-01

The present study used attitudinal and behavioural indicators to measure support for smoke-free policies among employers and employees in the hospitality industry in Cyprus. A representative sample of 600 participants (95 % response rate) completed anonymous structured questionnaires on demographic variables, smoking status, exposure to second-hand smoke at work and related health beliefs, social norms, and smoke-free policy support. Participants were predominantly males (68.3 %), with a mean age of 40 years (SD = 12.69), and 39.7 % were employers/owners of the hospitality venue. Analysis of variance showed that employers and smokers were less supportive of smoke-free policies, as compared to employees and non-smokers. Linear regression models showed that attitudes towards smoke-free policy were predicted by smoking status, SHS exposure and related health beliefs, and social norm variables. Logistic regression analysis showed that willingness to confront a policy violator was predicted by SHS exposure, perceived prevalence of smoker clients, and smoke-free policy attitudes. SHS exposure and related health beliefs, and normative factors should be targeted by interventions aiming to promote policy support in the hospitality industry in Cyprus.

Report on Spending Trends Highlights Inequities in Model for Financing Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blumenstyk, Goldie

2009-01-01

An analysis of spending trends that is designed to discourage policy makers' focus on finding new revenue rather than reining in spending suggests that the model for financing colleges has reinforced educational inequities and failed to increase the rate at which students graduate. According to the analysis, "serious fault lines" in the current…

Understanding Universities in Ontario, Canada: An Industry Analysis Using Porter's Five Forces Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pringle, James; Huisman, Jeroen

2011-01-01

In analyses of higher education systems, many models and frameworks are based on governance, steering, or coordination models. Although much can be gained by such analyses, we argue that the language used in the present-day policy documents (knowledge economy, competitive position, etc.) calls for an analysis of higher education as an industry. In…

Modeling Transportation Systems : an Overview

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1971-06-01

The purpose of this report is to outline the role of systems analysis and mathematical modeling in the planning of transportation systems. The planning process is divided into three sectors (demand, supply, and policy) reflecting the demand for trans...

Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

PubMed

Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

2014-01-01

To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

Cost Benefit Analysis of Two Policy Options for Cannabis: Status Quo and Legalisation

PubMed Central

Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

2014-01-01

Aims To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised–regulated option was conducted. Method A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). Findings The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised–regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised–regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Conclusion Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case. PMID:24755942

Transportation network policy modeling for congestion and pollution control: A variational inequality approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanujam, Padma

1999-08-01

Public concern over the state of the environment has grown over the past decade. All indications are that this concern will continue to influence policy making into the foreseeable future. Road transport is seen as the major contributor to environmental degradation. Transportation planners around the world face the question: cleaner air and/or faster commutes? While individual vehicles can be made more environmentally friendly, the sheer scale of growth in world-wide vehicle numbers is projected to cause significant environmental degradation in the longer run, and in the absence of newer and stricter polices. It is a challenge for governments to find policies that ensure congestion-free metropolitan areas while guaranteeing both critical environmental quality levels and a sufficient infrastructure access to all groups involved. The objective of the dissertation is to provide a mathematical framework to study transportation policy models for the purpose of controlling congestion and pollution. Towards this objective. a series of transportation policy models are developed to study travel behavior and to quantity the reductions in congestion and automobile emissions. The dissertation begins with a brief historical overview of some of the pioneering works in urban transportation economics and later presents the theoretical foundation for the transportation policy models developed. The dissertation introduces single modal and multimodal transportation network policy models that accomplish road pricing with the imposition of goal targets on link loads. as well as, integrated traffic equilibrium models with marketable mobile emission permits. Furthermore, equilibrium conditions are derived for each model, and both qualitative analysis and computational procedures are studied. Finally, the dissertation concludes with a comparative study of the relationship between regulatory pricing models and marketable emission permit transportation models and a discussion on key factors that influence implementation of the proposed policy models. The framework of variational inequalities has been utilized in our dissertation, because it is ideal for equilibrium systems. With the addition of pricing policy interventions and the integration of marketable mobile emission permits, traffic equilibrium models become extremely complex. Consequently, the computation of the equilibrium is made more difficult. However, it is shown in the dissertation that in addition to pricing interventions and the integration of a marketable emission permit system that it is possible to incorporate multiple modes of transport and even to handle the issue of noncompliance, using the framework of variational inequalities.

Intersectional policy analysis of self-directed mental health care in Canada.

PubMed

Cook, Judith A; Morrow, Marina; Battersby, Lupin

2017-06-01

Recovery from mental illness is influenced by one's social location along multiple dimensions of identity, such as race, class, gender, age, and ability, and by how these social locations are expressed through structural and institutional barriers. This project was developed using an intersectional policy analysis framework designed to promote equity across identity locations-called the multistrand method-to examine the potential use of self-directed care financing approaches in the Canadian mental health system. A panel of 16 diverse stakeholders came together 4 times at structured 6-hr meetings to examine the evidence for self-directed care and explore its application in the Canadian context. Telephone interviews with evidence panel members were conducted to assess their perceptions of the group process and outcomes. Our analysis revealed ways that intersecting strand locations might differentially influence the degree of choice and recovery experienced by self-directed care participants. Individualized resource allocation, draining financial resources from ethnically specific services, unevenness in acceptance of the recovery orientation, and paucity of service options in different geographical regions were identified as contexts in which self-directed care policies could promote inequity. However, greater peer involvement in the model's implementation, use of indigenous community supports, purchase of material goods by economically disenfranchised persons, and access to services from ethnically diverse clinicians in the private sector were identified as equity-promoting model features. By couching their analysis at the level of unique socially-situated perspectives, the group developed detailed policy recommendations and insights into both the potential and limitations of self-directed care. The knowledge gained from our project can be used to develop uniquely Canadian self-directed care models tailored to promote recovery through empowerment and self-determination across intersecting identity strand locations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Determinants of underage college student drinking: implications for four major alcohol reduction strategies.

PubMed

Paek, Hye-Jin; Hove, Thomas

2012-01-01

Guided by the assumptions of the social ecological model and the social marketing approach, this study provides a simultaneous and comprehensive assessment of 4 major alcohol reduction strategies for college campuses: school education programs, social norms campaigns, alcohol counter-marketing, and alcohol control policies. Analysis of nationally representative secondary survey data among 5,472 underage students reveals that alcohol marketing seems to be the most formidable risk factor for underage drinking, followed by perceived drinking norms (injunctive norm) and lax policy enforcement. This analysis suggests that, to make social norms campaigns and alcohol control policies more effective, alcohol reduction strategies should be developed to counter the powerful influence of alcohol marketing and promotions.

Impact of Nonmedical Vaccine Exemption Policies on the Health and Economic Burden of Measles.

PubMed

Whittington, Melanie D; Kempe, Allison; Dempsey, Amanda; Herlihy, Rachel; Campbell, Jonathan D

2017-07-01

Despite relatively high national vaccination coverage for measles, geographic vaccination variation exists resulting in clusters of susceptibility. A portion of this geographic variation can be explained by differences in state policies related to nonmedical vaccine exemptions. The objective of this analysis was to determine the magnitude, likelihood, and cost of a measles outbreak under different nonmedical vaccine exemption policies. An agent-based transmission model simulated the likelihood and magnitude of a measles outbreak under different nonmedical vaccine exemption policies, previously categorized as easy, medium, or difficult. The model accounted for measles herd immunity, infectiousness of the pathogen, vaccine efficacy, duration of incubation and communicable periods, acquired natural immunity, and the rate of recovery. Public health contact tracing was also modeled. Model outcomes, including the number of secondary cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, were monetized to determine the economic burden of the simulated outbreaks. A state with easy nonmedical vaccine exemption policies is 140% and 190% more likely to experience a measles outbreak compared with states with medium or difficult policies, respectively. The magnitude of these outbreaks can be reduced by half by strengthening exemption policies. These declines are associated with significant cost reductions to public health, the health care system, and the individual. Strengthening nonmedical vaccine exemption policies is 1 mechanism to increase vaccination coverage to reduce the health and economic effect of a measles outbreak. States exploring options for decreasing their vulnerability to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases should consider more stringent requirements for nonmedical vaccine exemptions. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

"Black Magic" and "Gold Dust": The Epistemic and Political Uses of Evidence Tools in Public Health Policy Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Ellen; Smith, Katherine E.

2015-01-01

Concerns about the limited influence of research on decision making have prompted the development of tools intended to mediate evidence for policy audiences. This article focuses on three examples, prominent in public health: impact assessments; systematic reviews; and economic decision-making tools (cost-benefit analysis and scenario modelling).…

Recent Contributions of Information Sciences Research at RAND to Modeling- and Simulation-Based Policy Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donohue, G. L.; And Others

This report presents examples of Rand's current research in the information sciences and illustrates the application of information science tools to specific policy studies. The projects discussed depict Rand's success with using corporate seed money to bridge the gap between the research and development of new information science tools and…

PISA: Multiple 'Truths' and Mediatised Global Governance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grey, Sue; Morris, Paul

2018-01-01

The OECD's PISA programme has been portrayed as central to the emergence of a regime of global educational governance and the subsequent convergence of policies towards a standardised model. Whilst there is an extensive literature describing PISA's impact on education policies, there is a paucity of analysis of how PISA data is presented to the…

Bachelor's Degree Productivity X-Inefficiency: The Role of State Higher Education Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Titus, Marvin A.

2010-01-01

Using stochastic frontier analysis and dynamic fixed-effects panel modeling, this study examines how changes in the x-inefficiency of bachelor's degree production are influenced by changes in state higher education policy. The findings from this research show that increases in need-based state financial aid help to mitigate the convergence among…

Adolescents' School Enrollment and Employment: Effect of State Welfare Policies. JCPR Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hao, Lingxin; Astone, Nan M.; Cherlin, Andrew J.

This study hypothesizes that stringent welfare policies may promote school enrollment and reduce employment among adolescents from low-income, single parent, and welfare families. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 cohort, combined with state-level data sources, this analysis uses a dynamic model to study school and…

The cocaine and heroin markets in the era of globalisation and drug reduction policies.

PubMed

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

2009-11-01

Despite the large volume of public effort devoted to restrain drug supply and the growing attention given to drug demand reduction policies, the use of cocaine and heroin remains steady. Furthermore, retail drug prices have fallen significantly in Europe and the US. This puzzling evidence leads us to develop a model aiming at systematically analysing illicit drug markets. We model the markets of cocaine and heroin from production to the final retail markets. One novelty of the analysis consists in characterising the retail market as a monopolistic competitive one. Then, upper level dealers have some market power in the retail market. This allows them to charge a markup and to earn extra profits. These extra profits attract newcomers so that profits tend to fall over time. Theoretical model was used to analyse the effect of supply containment policies on the retail market, the producer market and the export-import business. This introduces the discussion of the impact of demand reduction policies on the high level traffickers' profit. Finally, globalisation enters in the model. Law enforcement measures increase the risk premia received by the lower and higher level traffickers. Consequently, trafficking intermediation margins tend to increase. However, globalisation has the opposite effect. It lowers intermediation margins and, then, pushes retail prices down, thereby stimulating consumption. In doing so, globalisation offsets the effects of supply containment policies. Finally, we discuss how the effectiveness of supply containment policies can be enhanced by combining them with demand reduction policies.

Predictive and Reactive Distribution of Vaccines and Antivirals during Cross-Regional Pandemic Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Uribe-Sánchez, Andrés; Savachkin, Alex

2011-01-01

As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. We develop a large-scale simulation-driven optimization model for generating dynamic predictive distribution of vaccines and antivirals over a network of regional pandemic outbreaks. The model incorporates measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The performance of the strategy is compared to that of the reactive myopic policy, using a sample outbreak in Fla, USA, with an affected population of over four millions. The comparison is implemented at different levels of vaccine and antiviral availability and administration capacity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The model is intended to support public health policy making for effective distribution of limited mitigation resources. PMID:23074658

Research Workforce Diversity: The Case of Balancing National versus International Postdocs in US Biomedical Research.

PubMed

Ghaffarzadegan, Navid; Hawley, Joshua; Desai, Anand

2014-03-01

The US government has been increasingly supporting postdoctoral training in biomedical sciences to develop the domestic research workforce. However, current trends suggest that mostly international researchers benefit from the funding, many of whom might leave the USA after training. In this paper, we describe a model used to analyse the flow of national versus international researchers into and out of postdoctoral training. We calibrate our model in the case of the USA and successfully replicate the data. We use the model to conduct simulation-based analyses of effects of different policies on the diversity of postdoctoral researchers. Our model shows that capping the duration of postdoctoral careers, a policy proposed previously, favours international postdoctoral researchers. The analysis suggests that the leverage point to help the growth of domestic research workforce is in the pregraduate education area, and many policies implemented at the postgraduate level have minimal or unintended effects on diversity.

Assessing and forecasting population health: integrating knowledge and beliefs in a comprehensive framework.

PubMed

Van Meijgaard, Jeroen; Fielding, Jonathan E; Kominski, Gerald F

2009-01-01

A comprehensive population health-forecasting model has the potential to interject new and valuable information about the future health status of the population based on current conditions, socioeconomic and demographic trends, and potential changes in policies and programs. Our Health Forecasting Model uses a continuous-time microsimulation framework to simulate individuals' lifetime histories by using birth, risk exposures, disease incidence, and death rates to mark changes in the state of the individual. The model generates a reference forecast of future health in California, including details on physical activity, obesity, coronary heart disease, all-cause mortality, and medical expenditures. We use the model to answer specific research questions, inform debate on important policy issues in public health, support community advocacy, and provide analysis on the long-term impact of proposed changes in policies and programs, thus informing stakeholders at all levels and supporting decisions that can improve the health of populations.

The policy process for health promotion.

PubMed

Söderberg, Erik; Wikström, Ewa

2015-08-01

The paper aims to contribute to our understanding of the policy process in health promotion by addressing the following questions: What are the characteristics of the policy process in health promotion? How do policy entrepreneurs influence project implementation? This is a qualitative study with an explorative case study design that uses three different data sources: qualitative interviews, written documents and observations. The paper examines several factors (determinants) that influence the policy process and that, to a lesser extent, are addressed by current models in health policy research. Legitimacy, financial capacity, available structure and political timing are all important determinants that influence the policy process. Policy entrepreneurs, with established networks and knowledge of the environment and its procedures, create legitimacy and provide opportunities for action; however, indistinct organizational boundaries among roles and poorly defined individual responsibilities create policy process uncertainty. As a result, there are lengthy discussions and few decisions, both of which delay the progress of a project. This paper's theoretical contribution is its analysis of the relationship of policy-making to linear models, via a discussion of policy entrepreneurs, and their importance in the policy process. The paper concludes that we need to consider the influence of policy entrepreneurs, whom build legitimacy and seize action opportunities by coupling the three streams in the policy process, as they help bring projects to fruition. Furthermore, the study points to the importance of policy entrepreneurs throughout the policy process. The paper has practical implications for practitioners whom work with the implementation of community policies. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Agenda setting and framing of gender-based violence in Nepal: how it became a health issue

PubMed Central

Colombini, Manuela; Mayhew, Susannah H; Hawkins, Ben; Bista, Meera; Joshi, Sunil Kumar; Schei, Berit; Watts, Charlotte

2016-01-01

Gender-based violence (GBV) has been addressed as a policy issue in Nepal since the mid 1990s, yet it was only in 2010 that Nepal developed a legal and policy framework to combat GBV. This article draws on the concepts of agenda setting and framing to analyse the historical processes by which GBV became legitimized as a health policy issue in Nepal and explored factors that facilitated and constrained the opening and closing of windows of opportunity. The results presented are based on a document analysis of the policy and regulatory framework around GBV in Nepal. A content analysis was undertaken. Agenda setting for GBV policies in Nepal evolved over many years and was characterized by the interplay of political context factors, actors and multiple frames. The way the issue was depicted at different times and by different actors played a key role in the delay in bringing health onto the policy agenda. Women’s groups and less powerful Ministries developed gender equity and development frames, but it was only when the more powerful human rights frame was promoted by the country’s new Constitution and the Office of the Prime Minister that legislation on GBV was achieved and a domestic violence bill was adopted, followed by a National Plan of Action. This eventually enabled the health frame to converge around the development of implementation policies that incorporated health service responses. Our explicit incorporation of framing within the Kindgon model has illustrated how important it is for understanding the emergence of policy issues, and the subsequent debates about their resolution. The framing of a policy problem by certain policy actors, affects the development of each of the three policy streams, and may facilitate or constrain their convergence. The concept of framing therefore lends an additional depth of understanding to the Kindgon agenda setting model. PMID:26412857

Agenda setting and framing of gender-based violence in Nepal: how it became a health issue.

PubMed

Colombini, Manuela; Mayhew, Susannah H; Hawkins, Ben; Bista, Meera; Joshi, Sunil Kumar; Schei, Berit; Watts, Charlotte

2016-05-01

Gender-based violence (GBV) has been addressed as a policy issue in Nepal since the mid 1990s, yet it was only in 2010 that Nepal developed a legal and policy framework to combat GBV. This article draws on the concepts of agenda setting and framing to analyse the historical processes by which GBV became legitimized as a health policy issue in Nepal and explored factors that facilitated and constrained the opening and closing of windows of opportunity. The results presented are based on a document analysis of the policy and regulatory framework around GBV in Nepal. A content analysis was undertaken. Agenda setting for GBV policies in Nepal evolved over many years and was characterized by the interplay of political context factors, actors and multiple frames. The way the issue was depicted at different times and by different actors played a key role in the delay in bringing health onto the policy agenda. Women's groups and less powerful Ministries developed gender equity and development frames, but it was only when the more powerful human rights frame was promoted by the country's new Constitution and the Office of the Prime Minister that legislation on GBV was achieved and a domestic violence bill was adopted, followed by a National Plan of Action. This eventually enabled the health frame to converge around the development of implementation policies that incorporated health service responses. Our explicit incorporation of framing within the Kindgon model has illustrated how important it is for understanding the emergence of policy issues, and the subsequent debates about their resolution. The framing of a policy problem by certain policy actors, affects the development of each of the three policy streams, and may facilitate or constrain their convergence. The concept of framing therefore lends an additional depth of understanding to the Kindgon agenda setting model. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Brilé; Böhmelt, Tobias; Ward, Hugh

2017-11-01

This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public’s environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states.

Two science communities and coastal wetlands policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LeVine, J.B.

1984-01-01

This study compares the attitudes of academic and government wetlands scientists about wetlands science and policy. Analysis of one thousand seven hundred responses to Delphi-type questions posed to twenty California scientists on a wide range of issues about California coastal wetlands found significant differences between academic and government scientists about wetlands definitions, threats to wetlands, wetlands policies, wetlands health, and wetlands mitigation strategies. These differences were consistent with descriptive models of political sociology developed by D. Price and C.P. Snow and with normative models of the philosophy of science developed in the renaissance by F. Bacon and R. Descartes. Characteristics,more » preferences, and personality attributes consistent with group functions and roles have been described in these models. These findings have serious implications for policy. When academic and government wetlands scientists act as advisors to the major parties in land use conflicts, basic differences in perspective have contributed to costly contention over the future use of wetlands.« less

Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2008-12-01

The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

One stop crisis centres: A policy analysis of the Malaysian response to intimate partner violence

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background This article aims to investigate the processes, actors and other influencing factors behind the development and the national scale-up of the One Stop Crisis Centre (OSCC) policy and the subsequent health model for violence-response. Methods Methods used included policy analysis of legal, policy and regulatory framework documents, and in-depth interviews with key informants from governmental and non-governmental organisations in two States of Malaysia. Results The findings show that women's NGOs and health professionals were instrumental in the formulation and scaling-up of the OSCC policy. However, the subsequent breakdown of the NGO-health coalition negatively impacted on the long-term implementation of the policy, which lacked financial resources and clear policy guidance from the Ministry of Health. Conclusion The findings confirm that a clearly-defined partnership between NGOs and health staff can be very powerful for influencing the legal and policy environment in which health care services for intimate partner violence are developed. It is critical to gain high level support from the Ministry of Health in order to institutionalise the violence-response across the entire health care system. Without clear operational details and resources policy implementation cannot be fully ensured and taken to scale. PMID:21693029

Catchment scale water resource constraints on UK policies for low-carbon energy system transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Fenner, R. A.

2017-12-01

Long-term low-carbon energy transition policy of the UK presents national scale propositions of different low-carbon energy system options that lead to meeting GHG emissions reduction target of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050. Whilst national-scale assessments suggests that water availability may not be a significant constrain on future thermal power generation systems in this pursuit, these analysis fail to capture the appropriate spatial scale where water resource decisions are made, i.e. at the catchment scale. Water is a local resource, which also has significant spatio-temporal regional and national variability, thus any policy-relevant water-energy nexus analysis must be reflective of these characteristics. This presents a critical challenge for policy relevant water-energy nexus analysis. This study seeks to overcome the above challenge by using a linear spatial-downscaling model to allocate nationally projected water-intensive energy system infrastructure/technologies to the catchment level, and estimating the water requirements for the deployment of these technologies. The model is applied to the UK Committee on Climate Change Carbon Budgets to 2030 as a case study. The paper concludes that whilst national-scale analyses show minimal long-term water related impacts, catchment level appraisal of water resource requirements reveal significant constraints in some locations. The approach and results presented in this study thus, highlights the importance of bringing together scientific understanding, data and analysis tools to provide better insights for water-energy nexus decisions at the appropriate spatial scale. This is particularly important for water stressed regions where the water-energy nexus must be analysed at appropriate spatial resolution to capture the full water resource impact of national energy policy.

Water-Energy Nexus Challenges & Opportunities in the Arabian Peninsula under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores-Lopez, F.; Yates, D. N.; Galaitsi, S.; Binnington, T.; Dougherty, W.; Vinnaccia, M.; Glavan, J. C.

2016-12-01

Demand for water in the GCC countries relies mainly on fossil groundwater resources and desalination. Satisfying water demand requires a great deal of energy as it treats and moves water along the supply chain from sources, through treatment processes, and ultimately to the consumer. Hence, there is an inherent connection between water and energy and with climate change, the links between water and energy are expected to become even stronger. As part of AGEDI's Local, National, and Regional Climate Change Programme, a study of the water-energy nexus of the countries in the Arabian Peninsula was implemented. For water, WEAP models both water demand - and its main drivers - and water supply, simulating policies, priorities and preferences. For energy, LEAP models both energy supply and demand, and is able to capture the impacts of low carbon development strategies. A coupled WEAP-LEAP model was then used to evaluate the future performance of the energy-water system under climate change and policy scenarios. The coupled models required detailed data, which were obtained through literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders in the region. As part of this process, the outputs of both models were validated for historic periods using existing data The models examined 5 policy scenarios of different futures of resource management to the year 2060. A future under current management practices with current climate and a climate projection based on the RCP8.5; a High Efficiency scenario where each country gradually implements policies to reduce the consumption of water and electricity; a Natural Resource Protection scenario with resource efficiency and phasing out of groundwater extraction and drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage in favor of solar; and an Integrated Policy scenario that integrates the prior two policy scenarios Water demands can mostly be met in any scenario through supply combinations of groundwater, desalination and wastewater reuse, with some regional fossil groundwater basins draw to extinction by 2060. While the analysis includes both demand and supply oriented scenarios, the results of the analysis strongly suggest that the region will need to simultaneously purse demand and supply side policies to achieve more sustainable uses of water and energy into the second half of the 21st century.

Spatial analysis of agri-environmental policy uptake and expenditure in Scotland.

PubMed

Yang, Anastasia L; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Wilson, Ronald M; Haggett, Claire

2014-01-15

Agri-environment is one of the most widely supported rural development policy measures in Scotland in terms of number of participants and expenditure. It comprises 69 management options and sub-options that are delivered primarily through the competitive 'Rural Priorities scheme'. Understanding the spatial determinants of uptake and expenditure would assist policy-makers in guiding future policy targeting efforts for the rural environment. This study is unique in examining the spatial dependency and determinants of Scotland's agri-environmental measures and categorised options uptake and payments at the parish level. Spatial econometrics is applied to test the influence of 40 explanatory variables on farming characteristics, land capability, designated sites, accessibility and population. Results identified spatial dependency for each of the dependent variables, which supported the use of spatially-explicit models. The goodness of fit of the spatial models was better than for the aspatial regression models. There was also notable improvement in the models for participation compared with the models for expenditure. Furthermore a range of expected explanatory variables were found to be significant and varied according to the dependent variable used. The majority of models for both payment and uptake showed a significant positive relationship with SSSI (Sites of Special Scientific Interest), which are designated sites prioritised in Scottish policy. These results indicate that environmental targeting efforts by the government for AEP uptake in designated sites can be effective. However habitats outside of SSSI, termed here the 'wider countryside' may not be sufficiently competitive to receive funding in the current policy system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Formation and representation: Critical analyses of identity, supply, and demand in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandayam Doddamane, Prabha

2011-12-01

Considerable research, policy, and programmatic efforts have been dedicated to addressing the participation of particular populations in STEM for decades. Each of these efforts claims equity-related goals; yet, they heavily frame the problem, through pervasive STEM pipeline model discourse, in terms of national needs, workforce supply, and competitiveness. This particular framing of the problem may, indeed, be counter to equity goals, especially when paired with policy that largely relies on statistical significance and broad aggregation of data over exploring the identities and experiences of the populations targeted for equitable outcomes in that policy. In this study, I used the mixed-methods approach of critical discourse and critical quantitative analyses to understand how the pipeline model ideology has become embedded within academic discourse, research, and data surrounding STEM education and work and to provide alternatives for quantitative analysis. Using critical theory as a lens, I first conducted a critical discourse analysis of contemporary STEM workforce studies with a particular eye to pipeline ideology. Next, I used that analysis to inform logistic regression analyses of the 2006 SESTAT data. This quantitative analysis compared and contrasted different ways of thinking about identity and retention. Overall, the findings of this study show that many subjective choices are made in the construction of the large-scale datasets used to inform much national science and engineering policy and that these choices greatly influence likelihood of retention outcomes.

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

PubMed

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

Official conceptualizations of person-centered care: which person counts?

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Ciara

2013-08-01

Numerous studies have indicated that a "psycho-social" person-centered care approach, involving the delivery of a compassionate, respectful model of care, leads to a high quality of life, particularly for older people living in residential care. This has prompted policy-makers to endorse this approach. Yet, some commentators have argued that the model of person-centered care in official government policies equates to a "consumer-based" rather than a psycho-social approach, as it focuses solely on offering service-users more choice and on promoting independence. However, as such arguments are made in the absence of any empirical analysis, it is unclear both whether such a distinction exists in practice, and, if so, how this alternative model developed. This study explores the development of minimum standards for residential care settings for older people in Ireland in order to address this gap in our understanding of person-centered care. Findings confirm that a consumer-driven model of person-centered care underpins the Irish Standards; residential care is portrayed as a hotel-like service and residents as discerning consumers, which may be unsuitable for older people in residential care with limited capacity to make key choices. Analysis indicates that this model can be seen both as an extension of consumer-driven policies endorsed by many neo-liberal governments, and also of policy-makers' fears of losing their autonomy when they reach the "Fourth Age". This study is particularly illuminating, given the similarities between the Irish care system with England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Australia. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Approach to Economic and Environmental Aspects of Air Pollution and Climate Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.

2007-12-01

Emissions of greenhouses gases and conventional pollutants are closely linked through shared generation processes and thus policies directed toward long-lived greenhouse gases affect emissions of conventional pollutants and, similarly, policies directed toward conventional pollutants affect emissions of greenhouse gases. Some conventional pollutants such as aerosols also have direct radiative effects. NOx and VOCs are ozone precursors, another substance with both radiative and health impacts, and these ozone precursors also interact with the chemistry of the hydroxyl radical which is the major methane sink. Realistic scenarios of future emissions and concentrations must therefore account for both air pollution and greenhouse gas policies and how they interact economically as well as atmospherically, including the regional pattern of emissions and regulation. We have modified a 16 region computable general equilibrium economic model (the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model) by including elasticities of substitution for ozone precursors and aerosols in order to examine these interactions between climate policy and air pollution policy on a global scale. Urban emissions are distributed based on population density, and aged using a reduced form urban model before release into an atmospheric chemistry/climate model (the earth systems component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model). This integrated approach enables examination of the direct impacts of air pollution on climate, the ancillary and complementary interactions between air pollution and climate policies, and the impact of different population distribution algorithms or urban emission aging schemes on global scale properties. This modeling exercise shows that while ozone levels are reduced due to NOx and VOC reductions, these reductions lead to an increase in methane concentrations that eliminates the temperature effects of the ozone reductions. However, black carbon reductions do have significant direct effects on global mean temperatures, as do ancillary reductions of greenhouse gases due to the pollution constraints imposed in the economic model. Finally, we show that the economic benefits of coordinating air pollution and climate policies rather than separate implementation are on the order of 20% of the total policy cost.

The analysis of forest policy using Landsat multi-spectral scanner data and geographic information systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, D. L.; Brass, J. A.; Norman, S. D.; Tosta-Miller, N.

1984-01-01

The role of Landsat multi-spectral scanner (MSS) data for forest policy analysis in the state of California has been investigated. The combined requirements for physical, socio-economic, and institutional data in policy analysis were studied to explain potential data needs. A statewide MSS data and general land cover classification was created from which country-wide data sets could be extracted for detailed analyses. The potential to combine point sample data with MSS data was examined as a means to improve specificity in estimations. MSS data was incorporated into geographic information systems to demonstrate modeling techniques using abiotic, biotic, and socio-economic data layers. The review of system configurations to help the California Department of Forestry (CDF) acquire the capability demonstrated resulted in a sequence of options for implementation.

MODELS-3 INSTALLATION PROCEDURES FOR A SUN WORKSTATION WITH A UNIX-BASED OPERATING SYSTEM (MODELS-3 VERSION 4.1)

EPA Science Inventory

Models-3 is a flexible system designed to simplify the development and use of air quality models and other environmental decision support tools. It is designed for applications ranging from regulatory and policy analysis to understanding the complex interactions of atmospheric...

Reduction in Male Suicide Mortality Following the 2006 Russian Alcohol Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Chamlin, Mitchell B.; Andreev, Evgeny

2013-01-01

Objectives. We took advantage of a natural experiment to assess the impact on suicide mortality of a suite of Russian alcohol policies. Methods. We obtained suicide counts from anonymous death records collected by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time series techniques to model the effect of the alcohol policy (implemented in January 2006) on monthly male and female suicide counts between January 2000 and December 2010. Results. Monthly male and female suicide counts decreased during the period under study. Although the ARIMA analysis showed no impact of the policy on female suicide mortality, the results revealed an immediate and permanent reduction of about 9% in male suicides (Ln ω0 = −0.096; P = .01). Conclusions. Despite a recent decrease in mortality, rates of alcohol consumption and suicide in Russia remain among the highest in the world. Our analysis revealed that the 2006 alcohol policy in Russia led to a 9% reduction in male suicide mortality, meaning the policy was responsible for saving 4000 male lives annually that would otherwise have been lost to suicide. Together with recent similar findings elsewhere, our results suggest an important role for public health and other population level interventions, including alcohol policy, in reducing alcohol-related harm. PMID:24028249

Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds.

PubMed

Burdick, Clark; Manchester, Joyce

Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future.

The Value of Information in Decision-Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa.

PubMed

Kim, Dohyeong; Brown, Zachary; Anderson, Richard; Mutero, Clifford; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Wiener, Jonathan; Kramer, Randall

2017-02-01

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced-based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5-21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Influence of export control policy on the competitiveness of machine tool producing organizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahrstrom, Jeffrey D.

The possible influence of export control policies on producers of export controlled machine tools is examined in this quantitative study. International market competitiveness theories hold that market controlling policies such as export control regulations may influence an organization's ability to compete (Burris, 2010). Differences in domestic application of export control policy on machine tool exports may impose throttling effects on the competitiveness of participating firms (Freedenberg, 2010). Commodity shipments from Japan, Germany, and the United States to the Russian market will be examined using descriptive statistics; gravity modeling of these specific markets provides a foundation for comparison to actual shipment data; and industry participant responses to a user developed survey will provide additional data for analysis using a Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance. There is scarce academic research data on the topic of export control effects within the machine tool industry. Research results may be of interest to industry leadership in market participation decisions, advocacy arguments, and strategic planning. Industry advocates and export policy decision makers could find data of interest in supporting positions for or against modifications of export control policies.

Family policies in OECD countries: a comparative analysis.

PubMed

Thévenon, Olivier

2011-01-01

This article discusses the diversity of family policy models in 28 OECD countries in terms of the balance between their different objectives and the mix of instruments adopted to implement the policies. Cross-country policy differences are investigated by applying a principal component analysis to comprehensive country-level data from the OECD Family database covering variables such as parental leave conditions, childcare service provision, and financial support to families. The results find persistent differences in the family policy patterns embedded in different contexts of work-family "outcomes." Country classifications of family policy packages only partially corroborate categorizations in earlier studies, owing to considerable within-group heterogeneity and the presence of group outliers. The Nordic countries outdistance the others with comprehensive support to working parents with very young children. Anglo-Saxon countries provide much less support for working parents with very young children, and financial support is targeted on low-income and large families and focuses on preschool and early elementary education. Continental and Eastern European countries form a more heterogeneous group, while the support received by families in Southern Europe and in Asian countries is much lower in all its dimensions.

Utilization Elementary Siphons of Petri Net to Solved Deadlocks in Flexible Manufacturing Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdul-Hussin, Mowafak Hassan

2015-07-01

This article presents an approach to the constructing a class structural analysis of Petri nets, where elementary siphons are mainly used in the development of a deadlock control policy of flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs), that has been exploited successfully for the design of supervisors of some supervisory control problems. Deadlock-free operation of FMSs is significant objectives of siphons in the Petri net. The structure analysis of Petri net models has efficiency in control of FMSs, however different policy can be implemented for the deadlock prevention. Petri nets models based deadlock prevention for FMS's has gained considerable interest in the development of control theory and methods for design, controlling, operation, and performance evaluation depending of the special class of Petri nets called S3PR. Both structural analysis and reachability tree analysis is used for the purposes analysis, simulation and control of Petri nets. In our ex-perimental approach based to siphon is able to resolve the problem of deadlock occurred to Petri nets that are illustrated with an FMS.

Assessing the environmental impacts of aircraft noise and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahashabde, Anuja; Wolfe, Philip; Ashok, Akshay; Dorbian, Christopher; He, Qinxian; Fan, Alice; Lukachko, Stephen; Mozdzanowska, Aleksandra; Wollersheim, Christoph; Barrett, Steven R. H.; Locke, Maryalice; Waitz, Ian A.

2011-01-01

With the projected growth in demand for commercial aviation, many anticipate increased environmental impacts associated with noise, air quality, and climate change. Therefore, decision-makers and stakeholders are seeking policies, technologies, and operational procedures that balance environmental and economic interests. The main objective of this paper is to address shortcomings in current decision-making practices for aviation environmental policies. We review knowledge of the noise, air quality, and climate impacts of aviation, and demonstrate how including environmental impact assessment and quantifying uncertainties can enable a more comprehensive evaluation of aviation environmental policies. A comparison is presented between the cost-effectiveness analysis currently used for aviation environmental policy decision-making and an illustrative cost-benefit analysis. We focus on assessing a subset of the engine NO X emissions certification stringency options considered at the eighth meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection. The FAA Aviation environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) is employed to conduct the policy assessments. We show that different conclusions may be drawn about the same policy options depending on whether benefits and interdependencies are estimated in terms of health and welfare impacts versus changes in NO X emissions inventories as is the typical practice. We also show that these conclusions are sensitive to a variety of modeling uncertainties. While our more comprehensive analysis makes the best policy option less clear, it represents a more accurate characterization of the scientific and economic uncertainties underlying impacts and the policy choices.

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality.

PubMed

Zhu, Yun; Lao, Yanwen; Jang, Carey; Lin, Chen-Jen; Xing, Jia; Wang, Shuxiao; Fu, Joshua S; Deng, Shuang; Xie, Junping; Long, Shicheng

2015-01-01

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling (RSM) methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool (VAT) for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S. demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias <2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The benefits from complying with the framework convention on tobacco control: a SimSmoke analysis of 15 European nations.

PubMed

Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Currie, Laura M; Clancy, Luke

2014-12-01

This article compares the predicted impact of tobacco tax increases alone and as part of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) across 15 European countries. Country-specific population, smoking prevalence and policy data with modified parameter values have been applied to the previously validated SimSmoke model for 10 high-income and 5 middle-income European nations. The impact of past and potential future policies is modelled. Models generally validated well across the 15 countries, and showed the impact of past policies. Without stronger future policies, 44 million lives would be lost due to smoking across the 15 study countries between 2011 and 2040, but effective policies could avert 7.7 million of those premature deaths. Results suggest that past policies have been effective in reducing smoking rates, but there is also a strong potential for future policies consistent with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. When specific taxes are increased to 70% of retail price, strong smoke-free air laws, youth access laws and marketing restrictions are enforced, stronger health warnings are implemented, and cessation treatment and media campaigns are supported, smoking prevalence and SADs will fall substantially in European countries. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2013; all rights reserved.

Impact of price deregulation policy on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health: a panel data analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Junjie; Wang, Liming; Liu, Chenxi; Zhang, Xinping

2017-12-01

A new policy which required deregulation on prices of off-patent medicines for women's health during procurement was introduced in China in September 2015. The current study examines this policy's impact on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health. Based on product-level panel data, a fixed effect regression model is employed by using procurement records from Hubei Centralist Tender for Drug Purchase platform. In the model, Affordability was measured with prices. The Competition consists of two parts: generic competition and therapeutic class competition which are measured with generic competitors and therapeutic substitutes. Instrument variable is used to deal with endogeneity. The policy helped control prices of essential medicines for women's health. Generic competition helped control prices, however, therapeutic class competition caused higher prices. The new policy helped enhance the affordability of essential medicines for women's health as expected, which provides empirical evidence on price deregulation. Besides, generic competition is important in price control despite strict regulatory system in China.

Compositional schedulability analysis of real-time actor-based systems.

PubMed

Jaghoori, Mohammad Mahdi; de Boer, Frank; Longuet, Delphine; Chothia, Tom; Sirjani, Marjan

2017-01-01

We present an extension of the actor model with real-time, including deadlines associated with messages, and explicit application-level scheduling policies, e.g.,"earliest deadline first" which can be associated with individual actors. Schedulability analysis in this setting amounts to checking whether, given a scheduling policy for each actor, every task is processed within its designated deadline. To check schedulability, we introduce a compositional automata-theoretic approach, based on maximal use of model checking combined with testing. Behavioral interfaces define what an actor expects from the environment, and the deadlines for messages given these assumptions. We use model checking to verify that actors match their behavioral interfaces. We extend timed automata refinement with the notion of deadlines and use it to define compatibility of actor environments with the behavioral interfaces. Model checking of compatibility is computationally hard, so we propose a special testing process. We show that the analyses are decidable and automate the process using the Uppaal model checker.

USER MANUAL FOR THE EPA THIRD-GENERATION AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM (MODELS-3 VERSION 3.0)

EPA Science Inventory

Models-3 is a flexible software system designed to simplify the development and use of environmental assessment and other decision support tools. It is designed for applications ranging from regulatory and policy analysis to understanding the complex interactions of atmospheri...

SYSTEM INSTALLATION AND OPERATION MANUAL FOR THE EPA THIRD-GENERATION AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM (MODELS-3) VERSION 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

Models-3 is a flexible software system designed to simplify the development and use of environmental assessment and other decision support tools. It is designed for applications ranging from regulatory and policy analysis to understanding the complex interactions of atmospheri...

An Analysis of Health Manpower Models: Volume I.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonder, Seth; And Others

Objectives of the project were to identify and describe problem areas and policy issues confronting health manpower planning agencies at all levels, compile an inventory of models and evaluate their usefulness, and to evaluate the potential usefulness of two models (developed under contract to the Bureau of Health Resources Development) designed…

Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyler, David Clinton

1984-01-01

Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

Development of a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tool in R for parametrization of the APEX model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic models are used to simulate the responses of agricultural systems to different inputs and management strategies to identify alternative management practices to cope up with future climate and/or geophysical changes. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is a model develope...

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Implementing a Car-Sharing Model to the Navy’s Passenger Vehicle Fleet

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

and Public Policy iv THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK v COST - BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTING A CAR- SHARING MODEL TO THE NAVY’S PASSENGER...the public good. This CBA will be conducted using a federal government perspective and standing (whose costs and benefits will be counted) will be...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT COST - BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTING A CAR-SHARING

Air Vehicles Division Computational Structural Analysis Facilities Policy and Guidelines for Users

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

34 Thermal " as appropriate and the tolerance set to "default". b) Create the model geometry. c) Create the finite elements. d) Create the...linear, non-linear, dynamic, thermal , acoustic analysis. The modelling of composite materials, creep, fatigue and plasticity are also covered...perform professional, high quality finite element analysis (FEA). FE analysts from many tasks within AVD are using the facilities to conduct FEA with

A Policy Analysis of the Federal Growth Model Pilot Program's Measures of School Performance: The Florida Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiss, Michael J.; May, Henry

2012-01-01

As test-based educational accountability has moved to the forefront of national and state education policy, so has the desire for better measures of school performance. No Child Left Behind's (NCLB) status and safe harbor measures have been criticized for being unfair and unreliable, respectively. In response to such criticism, in 2005 the federal…

An Analysis of U.S. Student Drug and Alcohol Policies through the Lens of a Professional Ethic for School Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stamm, Mark E.; Frick, William C.; Mackey, Hollie J.

2016-01-01

This study explored the moral complexity of student drug and alcohol policies that are often disciplinary, punitive, and exclusionary in nature. The Ethic of the Profession and its Model for Students' Best Interests (Shapiro & Stefkovich, 2016; Stefkovich, 2013), a professional ethical construct for educational leadership and for school…

Efforts to Address the Aging Academic Workforce: Assessing Progress through a Three-Stage Model of Institutional Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaskie, Brian; Walker, Mark; Andersson, Matthew

2017-01-01

The aging of the academic workforce is becoming more relevant to policy discussions in higher education. Yet there has been no formal, large-scale analysis of institutional efforts to develop policies and programs for aging employees. We fielded a representative survey of human resource specialists at 187 colleges and universities across the…

A policy analysis of teamwork as a proposal for healthcare humanization: implications for nursing.

PubMed

da Silva, R N; de Freitas, F D da S; de Araújo, F P; Ferreira, M de A

2016-12-01

To analyse the implications of the political devices of the Brazilian National Humanization Policy, Singular Therapeutic Project and Reference Team and Matrix Support, for nursing as a professional discipline. The Brazilian Unified Health System, SUS-Brazil, has as its principles regarding health care: universal access at all levels of care; equality and non-discrimination; integrality; community participation; and political and administrative decentralization, regionalization, and hierarchization. The National Humanization Policy is a public health policy that serves as the methodological apparatus for the application of the SUS-Brazil principles. Reference Teams refers to inter- and transdisciplinary/professional teams. These team approaches are associated with increased quality of care. Qualitative lexical content policy analysis of the official documents for the Brazilian National Humanization Policy. The Reference Team model that is used to carry out Singular Therapeutic Projects leads to discussion of disciplinary boundaries in the context of health care. The Brazilian National Humanization Policy demands inclusion of various kinds of knowledge and networking. Research is needed to elucidate the nature of nursing care and its distinctive character in relation to the work objectives of other professional disciplines. © 2016 International Council of Nurses.

The political economy of noncompliance in China: The case of industrial energy policy

DOE PAGES

Van Aken, Tucker; Lewis, Orion A.

2015-03-18

One of the greatest challenges facing China today is the central government's ability to ensure that policies are implemented effectively at the local level, particularly policies that seek to make China's economic growth model more sustainable. These policies face resistance from local authorities and enterprises that benefit from the status quo. This raises a key research question: why do some provinces more fully implement these central policies? We argue the extent of local implementation is best conceptualized as a rational balance between economic and political incentives: localities with regulatory autonomy, low regulatory capacity and alternative interests will not fully implementmore » policies that are at odds with local economic imperatives. By examining a critical case of central policy implementation—industrial energy intensity reduction in the eleventh five-year plan—this article demonstrates that, regardless of industrial makeup or economic development, provinces that have greater regulatory autonomy for noncompliance coupled with alternative economic interests do not, on average, perform as well. As a result, using a nested analysis approach this study illustrates this argument with both quantitative analysis and original case study evidence from fieldwork interviews.« less

Design of Soil Salinity Policies with Tinamit, a Flexible and Rapid Tool to Couple Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Models with Physically-Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Adamowski, J. F.; Tuy, H.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2016-12-01

Model coupling is a crucial step to constructing many environmental models, as it allows for the integration of independently-built models representing different system sub-components to simulate the entire system. Model coupling has been of particular interest in combining socioeconomic System Dynamics (SD) models, whose visual interface facilitates their direct use by stakeholders, with more complex physically-based models of the environmental system. However, model coupling processes are often cumbersome and inflexible and require extensive programming knowledge, limiting their potential for continued use by stakeholders in policy design and analysis after the end of the project. Here, we present Tinamit, a flexible Python-based model-coupling software tool whose easy-to-use API and graphical user interface make the coupling of stakeholder-built SD models with physically-based models rapid, flexible and simple for users with limited to no coding knowledge. The flexibility of the system allows end users to modify the SD model as well as the linking variables between the two models themselves with no need for recoding. We use Tinamit to couple a stakeholder-built socioeconomic model of soil salinization in Pakistan with the physically-based soil salinity model SAHYSMOD. As climate extremes increase in the region, policies to slow or reverse soil salinity buildup are increasing in urgency and must take both socioeconomic and biophysical spheres into account. We use the Tinamit-coupled model to test the impact of integrated policy options (economic and regulatory incentives to farmers) on soil salinity in the region in the face of future climate change scenarios. Use of the Tinamit model allowed for rapid and flexible coupling of the two models, allowing the end user to continue making model structure and policy changes. In addition, the clear interface (in contrast to most model coupling code) makes the final coupled model easily accessible to stakeholders with limited technical background.

Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

2016-10-01

Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

Bringing a European perspective to the health human resources debate: A scoping study..

PubMed

Kuhlmann, Ellen; Batenburg, Ronald; Groenewegen, Peter P; Larsen, Christa

2013-04-01

Healthcare systems across the world are increasingly challenged by workforce shortages and misdistribution of skills. Yet, no comprehensive European approach to health human resources (HHR) policy exists and action remains fragmented. This scoping study seeks to contribute to the debates by providing an overview of existing HHR research, and by exploring the challenges of a European approach with a focus on workforce planning. In terms of methods, we build on a scoping review comprising literature analysis and qualitative data gathered from policy experts. In our analysis we observe an overall lack of integrated HHR approaches as major obstacle of efficient HHR planning, and find that five dimensions of integration in HHR policy are needed: system, occupational, sector, gender, and socio-cultural integration. Increasing the analytical complexity of HHR planning models does not automatically bring about more reliable and efficient planning, as the added value of these models is highly context-dependent. Yet Europe is highly diverse and we therefore argue the need for a strategic HHR perspective that is capable of bridging many different HHR policies and planning systems, and combining national and European solutions efficiently. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

COMPILATION OF GROUND-WATER MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Ground-water modeling is a computer-based methodology for mathematical analysis of the mechanisms and controls of ground-water systems for the evaluation of policies, action, and designs that may affect such systems. n addition to satisfying scientific interest in the workings of...

The Ohio River Basin energy facility siting model. Volume 1: Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, G. L.; Bailey, R. E.; Gordon, S. I.; Jansen, S. D.; Randolph, J. C.; Jones, W. W.

1981-04-01

The siting model developed for ORBES is specifically designed for regional policy analysis. The region includes 423 counties in an area that consists of all of Kentucky and substantial portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of policy instruments for greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the agricultural sector.

PubMed

Bakam, Innocent; Balana, Bedru Babulo; Matthews, Robin

2012-12-15

Market-based policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are generally considered more appropriate than command and control tools. However, the omission of transaction costs from policy evaluations and decision-making processes may result in inefficiency in public resource allocation and sub-optimal policy choices and outcomes. This paper aims to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of market-based GHG mitigation policy instruments in the agricultural sector by incorporating transaction costs. Assuming that farmers' responses to mitigation policies are economically rationale, an individual-based model is developed to study the relative performances of an emission tax, a nitrogen fertilizer tax, and a carbon trading scheme using farm data from the Scottish farm account survey (FAS) and emissions and transaction cost data from literature metadata survey. Model simulations show that none of the three schemes could be considered the most cost effective in all circumstances. The cost effectiveness depends both on the tax rate and the amount of free permits allocated to farmers. However, the emissions trading scheme appears to outperform both other policies in realistic scenarios. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The PEDA Model. An advocacy tool modeling the interrelationships between population, development, the environment and agriculture in Africa.

PubMed

1999-01-01

This article reports on the PEDA (population changes, environment, socioeconomic development and agriculture) model and its implication for policy-making in Africa. PEDA is an interactive computer simulation model (developed for a Windows environment) demonstrating the long-term impacts of alternative national policies on food security status of the population. The model is based on multistate demographic techniques, projecting at the same time 8 different subgroups (by age and sex) in the population, and based on 3 dichotomous individual characteristics: urban/rural place of residence; literacy status; and food security status. Through the manipulation of scenario variables, the model enables the user to project the proportion of the population that will be food secure and food insecure for a chosen point in time. This model developed by Dr. W. Lutz, Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, will serve as an advocacy tool to help convince policy-makers and country experts in Africa of the negative synergy arising from the interconnections of population growth, environmental deterioration, and declining agricultural production.

Trauma-Informed Social Policy: A Conceptual Framework for Policy Analysis and Advocacy

PubMed Central

Murshid, Nadine Shaanta

2016-01-01

Trauma-informed care is a service provision model used across a range of practice settings. Drawing on an extensive body of research on trauma (broadly defined as experiences that produce enduring emotional pain and distress) and health outcomes, we have argued that the principles of trauma-informed care can be extended to social policy. Citing a variety of health-related policy examples, we have described how policy can better reflect 6 core principles of trauma-informed care: safety, trustworthiness and transparency, collaboration, empowerment, choice, and intersectionality. This framework conveys a politicized understanding of trauma, reflecting the reality that trauma and its effects are not equally distributed, and offers a pathway for public health professionals to disrupt trauma-driven health disparities through policy action. PMID:26691122

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

1991-01-01

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

PubMed

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California

DOE PAGES

Dong, Changgui; Sigrin, Benjamin; Brinkman, Gregory

2016-12-06

Residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the United States has experienced robust growth, and policy changes impacting the value of solar are likely to occur at the federal and state levels. To establish a credible baseline and evaluate impacts of potential new policies, this analysis employs multiple methods to forecast residential PV deployment in California, including a time-series forecasting model, a threshold heterogeneity diffusion model, a Bass diffusion model, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's dSolar model. As a baseline, the residential PV market in California is modeled to peak in the early 2020s, with a peak annual installation of 1.5-2more » GW across models. We then use the baseline results from the dSolar model and the threshold model to gauge the impact of the recent federal investment tax credit (ITC) extension, the newly approved California net energy metering (NEM) policy, and a hypothetical value-of-solar (VOS) compensation scheme. We find that the recent ITC extension may increase annual PV installations by 12%-18% (roughly 500 MW, MW) for the California residential sector in 2019-2020. The new NEM policy only has a negligible effect in California due to the relatively small new charges (< 100 MW in 2019-2020). Moreover, impacts of the VOS compensation scheme (0.12 cents per kilowatt-hour) are larger, reducing annual PV adoption by 32% (or 900-1300 MW) in 2019-2020.« less

Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Changgui; Sigrin, Benjamin; Brinkman, Gregory

Residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the United States has experienced robust growth, and policy changes impacting the value of solar are likely to occur at the federal and state levels. To establish a credible baseline and evaluate impacts of potential new policies, this analysis employs multiple methods to forecast residential PV deployment in California, including a time-series forecasting model, a threshold heterogeneity diffusion model, a Bass diffusion model, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's dSolar model. As a baseline, the residential PV market in California is modeled to peak in the early 2020s, with a peak annual installation of 1.5-2more » GW across models. We then use the baseline results from the dSolar model and the threshold model to gauge the impact of the recent federal investment tax credit (ITC) extension, the newly approved California net energy metering (NEM) policy, and a hypothetical value-of-solar (VOS) compensation scheme. We find that the recent ITC extension may increase annual PV installations by 12%-18% (roughly 500 MW, MW) for the California residential sector in 2019-2020. The new NEM policy only has a negligible effect in California due to the relatively small new charges (< 100 MW in 2019-2020). Moreover, impacts of the VOS compensation scheme (0.12 cents per kilowatt-hour) are larger, reducing annual PV adoption by 32% (or 900-1300 MW) in 2019-2020.« less

[Environmental health: the evolution of Colombia's current regulatory framework].

PubMed

García-Ubaque, Cesar A; García-Ubaque, Juan C; Vaca-Bohórquez, Martha L

2013-01-01

This essay presents an analysis of the evolution of environmental health management in Colombia, covering the period from the introduction of the Colombian Healthcare Code (1979) to laws 99 and 100 in 1993 and the introduction of Environmental Health Policy in Bogotá DC (2011). It proposes a conceptual model for environmental health management at three levels: proximal (physical, chemical and biological setting), intermediate (natural and cultural environment) and distal (economic, political and social structures). Relevant aspects of environmental health policy in Bogotá are analysed based on the proposed model.

Global-to-local policy transfer in the introduction of new molecular tuberculosis diagnostics in South Africa.

PubMed

Colvin, C J; Leon, N; Wills, C; van Niekerk, M; Bissell, K; Naidoo, P

2015-11-01

Lack of innovation in diagnostics has contributed to tuberculosis (TB) remaining a global health challenge. It is critical to understand how new diagnostic technologies are translated into policies and how these are implemented. To examine policy transfer for two rapid molecular diagnostic tests, GenoType(®) MDRTBplus and Xpert(®) MTB/RIF, to understand policy development, uptake and implementation in South Africa. A policy transfer analysis framework integrating the key dimensions of policy transfer into one coherent model was used. Two phases of key informant interviews were undertaken with a wide range of stakeholders. Both tests were developed through innovative partnerships and responded to urgent public health needs. GenoType was introduced through a process that was more inclusive than that for Xpert. National policy and planning processes were opaque for both tests. Their implementation, maintenance and expansion suffered from poor communication and coordination, insufficient attention to resource implications, technical challenges and a lack of broader health systems thinking. Our analysis identified the risks and benefits of partnerships for technological innovation, the complex intersections between global and national actors and the impact of health systems on policy transfer, and the risks of rescue- and technology-focused thinking in addressing public health challenges.

School Health Promotion Policies and Adolescent Risk Behaviors in Israel: A Multilevel Analysis.

PubMed

Tesler, Riki; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Baron-Epel, Orna

2016-06-01

Health promotion policies targeting risk-taking behaviors are being implemented across schools in Israel. This study identified the most effective components of these policies influencing cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption among adolescents. Logistic hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis of data for 5279 students in 95 Jewish public schools from the Health Behavior in School-Aged Children (HBSC) 2010-2011 survey in Israel enabled simultaneous estimation of the relationship between student- and school-level variables (health promotion policy) to alcohol consumption and smoking behavior. Principals of participating schools also were interviewed to ascertain their degree of adoption and implementation of a health promotion policy. Most of the variance in adolescent risk behaviors is explained by student-level variables: negative perceptions of school, lack of parental support for school issues, and more time spent with friends. Among the school-level policy measures, parental participation in health promotion intervention programs was repeatedly associated with lower rates of risk behaviors, over and above student characteristics. School health promotion policies should focus on parents' involvement in intervention programs and should seek to improve students' perceptions of school and their sense of well-being to promote resilience. Further research is needed to identify additional factors that may increase the effectiveness of school health promotion policies. © 2016, American School Health Association.

A note on `a replenishment policy for items with price-dependent demand, time-proportional deterioration and no shortages'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Nita H.; Soni, Hardik N.; Gupta, Jyoti

2014-08-01

In a recent paper, Begum et al. (2012, International Journal of Systems Science, 43, 903-910) established pricing and replenishment policy for an inventory system with price-sensitive demand rate, time-proportional deterioration rate which follows three parameters, Weibull distribution and no shortages. In their model formulation, it is observed that the retailer's stock level reaches zero before the deterioration occurs. Consequently, the model resulted in traditional inventory model with price sensitive demand rate and no shortages. Hence, the main purpose of this note is to modify and present complete model formulation for Begum et al. (2012). The proposed model is validated by a numerical example and the sensitivity analysis of parameters is carried out.

An original traffic additional emission model and numerical simulation on a signalized road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wen-Xing; Zhang, Jing-Yu

2017-02-01

Based on VSP (Vehicle Specific Power) model traffic real emissions were theoretically classified into two parts: basic emission and additional emission. An original additional emission model was presented to calculate the vehicle's emission due to the signal control effects. Car-following model was developed and used to describe the traffic behavior including cruising, accelerating, decelerating and idling at a signalized intersection. Simulations were conducted under two situations: single intersection and two adjacent intersections with their respective control policy. Results are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis. It is also proved that additional emission model may be used to design the signal control policy in our modern traffic system to solve the serious environmental problems.

A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia.

PubMed

Abas, Zuraida Abal; Ramli, Mohamad Raziff; Desa, Mohamad Ishak; Saleh, Nordin; Hanafiah, Ainul Nadziha; Aziz, Nuraini; Abidin, Zaheera Zainal; Shibghatullah, Abdul Samad; Rahman, Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul; Musa, Haslinda

2017-08-18

The paper aims to provide an insight into the significance of having a simulation model to forecast the supply of registered nurses for health workforce planning policy using System Dynamics. A model is highly in demand to predict the workforce demand for nurses in the future, which it supports for complete development of a needs-based nurse workforce projection using Malaysia as a case study. The supply model consists of three sub-models to forecast the number of registered nurses for the next 15 years: training model, population model and Full Time Equivalent (FTE) model. In fact, the training model is for predicting the number of newly registered nurses after training is completed. Furthermore, the population model is for indicating the number of registered nurses in the nation and the FTE model is useful for counting the number of registered nurses with direct patient care. Each model is described in detail with the logical connection and mathematical governing equation for accurate forecasting. The supply model is validated using error analysis approach in terms of the root mean square percent error and the Theil inequality statistics, which is mportant for evaluating the simulation results. Moreover, the output of simulation results provides a useful insight for policy makers as a what-if analysis is conducted. Some recommendations are proposed in order to deal with the nursing deficit. It must be noted that the results from the simulation model will be used for the next stage of the Needs-Based Nurse Workforce projection project. The impact of this study is that it provides the ability for greater planning and policy making with better predictions.

Economic evaluation of policy options for dialysis in end-stage renal disease patients under the universal health coverage in Indonesia.

PubMed

Afiatin; Khoe, Levina Chandra; Kristin, Erna; Masytoh, Lusiana Siti; Herlinawaty, Eva; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Nadjib, Mardiati; Sastroasmoro, Sudigdo; Teerawattananon, Yot

2017-01-01

This study aims to assess the value for money and budget impact of offering hemodialysis (HD) as a first-line treatment, or the HD-first policy, and the peritoneal dialysis (PD) first policy compared to a supportive care option in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Indonesia. A Markov model-based economic evaluation was performed using local and international data to quantify the potential costs and health-related outcomes in terms of life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Three policy options were compared, i.e., the PD-first policy, HD-first policy, and supportive care. The PD-first policy for ESRD patients resulted in 5.93 life years, equal to the HD-first policy, with a slightly higher QALY gained (4.40 vs 4.34). The total lifetime cost for a patient under the PD-first policy is around 700 million IDR, which is lower than the cost under the HD-first policy, i.e. 735 million IDR per patient. Compared to supportive care, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the PD-first policy is 193 million IDR per QALY, while the HD-first policy resulted in 207 million IDR per QALY. Budget impact analysis indicated that the required budget for the PD-first policy is 43 trillion IDR for 53% coverage and 75 trillion IDR for 100% coverage in five years, which is less than the HD-first policy, i.e. 88 trillion IDR and 166 trillion IDR. The PD-first policy was found to be more cost-effective compared to the HD-first policy. Budget impact analysis provided evidence on the enormous financial burden for the country if the current practice, where HD dominates PD, continues for the next five years.

A decision model for selecting sustainable drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems for developing communities with a case study in Cimahi, Indonesia.

PubMed

Henriques, Justin J; Louis, Garrick E

2011-01-01

Capacity Factor Analysis is a decision support system for selection of appropriate technologies for municipal sanitation services in developing communities. Developing communities are those that lack the capability to provide adequate access to one or more essential services, such as water and sanitation, to their residents. This research developed two elements of Capacity Factor Analysis: a capacity factor based classification for technologies using requirements analysis, and a matching policy for choosing technology options. First, requirements analysis is used to develop a ranking for drinking water supply and greywater reuse technologies. Second, using the Capacity Factor Analysis approach, a matching policy is developed to guide decision makers in selecting the appropriate drinking water supply or greywater reuse technology option for their community. Finally, a scenario-based informal hypothesis test is developed to assist in qualitative model validation through case study. Capacity Factor Analysis is then applied in Cimahi Indonesia as a form of validation. The completed Capacity Factor Analysis model will allow developing communities to select drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems that are safe, affordable, able to be built and managed by the community using local resources, and are amenable to expansion as the community's management capacity increases. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing fleet capacity effectively under second-hand market redistribution.

PubMed

Quillérou, Emmanuelle; Roudaut, Nolwenn; Guyader, Olivier

2013-09-01

Fishing capacity management policies have been traditionally implemented at national level with national targets for capacity reduction. More recently, capacity management policies have increasingly targeted specific fisheries. French fisheries spatially vary along the French coastline and are associated to specific regions. Capacity management policies, however, ignore the capital mobility associated with second-hand vessel trade between regions. This is not an issue for national policies but could limit the effectiveness of regional capacity management policies. A gravity model and a random-effect Poisson regression model are used to analyze the determinants and spatial extent of the second-hand market in France. This study is based on panel data from the French Atlantic Ocean between 1992 and 2009. The trade flows between trading partners is found to increase with their sizes and to be spatially concentrated. Despite the low trade flows between regions, a net impact analysis shows that fishing capacity is redistributed by the second-hand market to regions on the Channel and Aquitaine from central regions. National capacity management policies (constructions/destructions) have induced a net decrease in regional fleet capacity with varying magnitude across regions. Unless there is a change of policy instruments or their scale of implementation, the operation of the second-hand market decreases the effectiveness of regional capacity management policies in regions on the Channel and Aquitaine.

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Simulation modelling as a tool for knowledge mobilisation in health policy settings: a case study protocol.

PubMed

Freebairn, L; Atkinson, J; Kelly, P; McDonnell, G; Rychetnik, L

2016-09-21

Evidence-informed decision-making is essential to ensure that health programs and services are effective and offer value for money; however, barriers to the use of evidence persist. Emerging systems science approaches and advances in technology are providing new methods and tools to facilitate evidence-based decision-making. Simulation modelling offers a unique tool for synthesising and leveraging existing evidence, data and expert local knowledge to examine, in a robust, low risk and low cost way, the likely impact of alternative policy and service provision scenarios. This case study will evaluate participatory simulation modelling to inform the prevention and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The risks associated with GDM are well recognised; however, debate remains regarding diagnostic thresholds and whether screening and treatment to reduce maternal glucose levels reduce the associated risks. A diagnosis of GDM may provide a leverage point for multidisciplinary lifestyle modification interventions. This research will apply and evaluate a simulation modelling approach to understand the complex interrelation of factors that drive GDM rates, test options for screening and interventions, and optimise the use of evidence to inform policy and program decision-making. The study design will use mixed methods to achieve the objectives. Policy, clinical practice and research experts will work collaboratively to develop, test and validate a simulation model of GDM in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The model will be applied to support evidence-informed policy dialogues with diverse stakeholders for the management of GDM in the ACT. Qualitative methods will be used to evaluate simulation modelling as an evidence synthesis tool to support evidence-based decision-making. Interviews and analysis of workshop recordings will focus on the participants' engagement in the modelling process; perceived value of the participatory process, perceived commitment, influence and confidence of stakeholders in implementing policy and program decisions identified in the modelling process; and the impact of the process in terms of policy and program change. The study will generate empirical evidence on the feasibility and potential value of simulation modelling to support knowledge mobilisation and consensus building in health settings.

Opportunities and challenges in developing a whole-of-government national food and nutrition policy: lessons from Australia's National Food Plan.

PubMed

Carey, Rachel; Caraher, Martin; Lawrence, Mark; Friel, Sharon

2016-01-01

The present article tracks the development of the Australian National Food Plan as a 'whole of government' food policy that aimed to integrate elements of nutrition and sustainability alongside economic objectives. The article uses policy analysis to explore the processes of consultation and stakeholder involvement in the development of the National Food Plan, focusing on actors from the sectors of industry, civil society and government. Existing documentation and submissions to the Plan were used as data sources. Models of health policy analysis and policy streams were employed to analyse policy development processes. Australia. Australian food policy stakeholders. The development of the Plan was influenced by powerful industry groups and stakeholder engagement by the lead ministry favoured the involvement of actors representing the food and agriculture industries. Public health nutrition and civil society relied on traditional methods of policy influence, and the public health nutrition movement failed to develop a unified cross-sector alliance, while the private sector engaged in different ways and presented a united front. The National Food Plan failed to deliver an integrated food policy for Australia. Nutrition and sustainability were effectively sidelined due to the focus on global food production and positioning Australia as a food 'superpower' that could take advantage of the anticipated 'dining boom' as incomes rose in the Asia-Pacific region. New forms of industry influence are emerging in the food policy arena and public health nutrition will need to adopt new approaches to influencing public policy.

Getting evidence into policy: The need for deliberative strategies?

PubMed

Flitcroft, Kathy; Gillespie, James; Salkeld, Glenn; Carter, Stacy; Trevena, Lyndal

2011-04-01

Getting evidence into policy is notoriously difficult. In this empirical case study we used document analysis and key informant interviews to explore the Australian federal government's policy to implement a national bowel cancer screening programme, and the role of evidence in this policy. Our analysis revealed a range of institutional limitations at three levels of national government: within the health department, between government departments, and across the whole of government. These limitations were amplified by the pressures of the 2004 Australian federal election campaign. Traditional knowledge utilisation approaches, which rely principally on voluntarist strategies and focus on the individual, rather than the institutional level, are often insufficient to ensure evidence-based implementation. We propose three alternative models, based on deliberative strategies which have been shown to work in other settings: review of the evidence by a select group of experts whose independence is enshrined in legislation and whose imprimatur is required before policy can proceed; use of an advisory group of experts who consult widely with stakeholders and publish their review findings; or public discussion of the evidence by the media and community groups who act as more direct conduits to the decision-makers than researchers. Such deliberative models could help overcome the limitations on the use of evidence by embedding public review of evidence as the first step in the institutional decision-making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urban Form Energy Use and Emissions in China: Preliminary Findings and Model Proof of Concept

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aden, Nathaniel; Qin, Yining; Fridley, David

Urbanization is reshaping China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2008 China added more than 300 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 46%. The ongoing population shift is spurring energy demand for new construction, as well as additional residential use with the replacement of rural biomass by urban commercial energy services. This project developed a modeling tool to quantify the full energy consequences of a particular form of urban residential development in order to identify energy- and carbon-efficient modes of neighborhood-level development and help mitigate resource and environmental implications of swelling cities. LBNL developedmore » an integrated modeling tool that combines process-based lifecycle assessment with agent-based building operational energy use, personal transport, and consumption modeling. The lifecycle assessment approach was used to quantify energy and carbon emissions embodied in building materials production, construction, maintenance, and demolition. To provide more comprehensive analysis, LBNL developed an agent-based model as described below. The model was applied to LuJing, a residential development in Jinan, Shandong Province, to provide a case study and model proof of concept. This study produced results data that are unique by virtue of their scale, scope and type. Whereas most existing literature focuses on building-, city-, or national-level analysis, this study covers multi-building neighborhood-scale development. Likewise, while most existing studies focus exclusively on building operational energy use, this study also includes embodied energy related to personal consumption and buildings. Within the boundaries of this analysis, food is the single largest category of the building energy footprint, accounting for 23% of the total. On a policy level, the LCA approach can be useful for quantifying the energy and environmental benefits of longer average building lifespans. In addition to prospective analysis for standards and certification, urban form modeling can also be useful in calculating or verifying ex post facto, bottom-up carbon emissions inventories. Emissions inventories provide a benchmark for evaluating future outcomes and scenarios as well as an empirical basis for valuing low-carbon technologies. By highlighting the embodied energy and emissions of building materials, the LCA approach can also be used to identify the most intensive aspects of industrial production and the supply chain. The agent based modeling aspect of the model can be useful for understanding how policy incentives can impact individual behavior and the aggregate effects thereof. The most useful elaboration of the urban form assessment model would be to further generalize it for comparative analysis. Scenario analysis could be used for benchmarking and identification of policy priorities. If the model is to be used for inventories, it is important to disaggregate the energy use data for more accurate emissions modeling. Depending on the policy integration of the model, it may be useful to incorporate occupancy data for per-capita results. On the question of density and efficiency, it may also be useful to integrate a more explicit spatial scaling mechanism for modeling neighborhood and city-level energy use and emissions, i.e. to account for scaling effects in public infrastructure and transportation.« less

Atrazine transport within a coastal zone in Southeastern Puerto Rico: a sensitivity analysis of an agricultural field model and riparian zone management model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water quality models are used to predict effects of conservation practices to mitigate the transport of herbicides to water bodies. We used two models - the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and the Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) to predict the movement of atrazine from ...

No association of smoke-free ordinances with profits from bingo and charitable games in Massachusetts.

PubMed

Glantz, S A; Wilson-Loots, R

2003-12-01

Because it is widely played, claims that smoking restrictions will adversely affect bingo games is used as an argument against these policies. We used publicly available data from Massachusetts to assess the impact of 100% smoke-free ordinances on profits from bingo and other gambling sponsored by charitable organisations between 1985 and 2001. We conducted two analyses: (1) a general linear model implementation of a time series analysis with net profits (adjusted to 2001 dollars) as the dependent variable, and community (as a fixed effect), year, lagged net profits, and the length of time the ordinance had been in force as the independent variables; (2) multiple linear regression of total state profits against time, lagged profits, and the percentage of the entire state population in communities that allow charitable gaming but prohibit smoking. The general linear model analysis of data from individual communities showed that, while adjusted profits fell over time, this effect was not related to the presence of an ordinance. The analysis in terms of the fraction of the population living in communities with ordinances yielded the same result. Policymakers can implement smoke-free policies without concern that these policies will affect charitable gaming.

Challenges in implementing individual placement and support in the Australian mental health service and policy context.

PubMed

Stirling, Yolande; Higgins, Kate; Petrakis, Melissa

2018-02-01

Objective Although Australia's service and policy context differs from that of the US, studies have highlighted potential for individual placement and support (IPS) to support competitive employment outcomes for people with severe and persistent mental illness. The aim of the present study was to explore why the model is not yet widely available. Methods A document analysis was conducted to discern reasons for challenges in implementation of IPS practice principles within the Australian service context. Results The document analysis illustrated that although policy acknowledges the importance of increasing employment rates for people with severe and persistent mental illness, consistent measures, change indicators, direction and time frames are lacking in policy and strategy documentation. Further, IPS principles are not consistently evident in guiding operational documentation that government-funded Disability Employment Services (DES) programs are mandated to adhere to. Conclusions For IPS to be readily implemented, it is necessary for government to offer support to agencies to partner and formal endorsement of the model as a preferred approach in tendering processes. Obligations and processes must be reviewed to ensure that model fidelity is achievable within the Australian Commonwealth policy and service context for programs to achieve competitive employment rates comparable to the most successful international programs. What is known about the topic? The IPS model has been established as the most efficacious approach to support people with severe and persistent mental ill health to gain and sustain employment internationally, yet little is known as to why this model has had very limited uptake in the Australian adult mental health service and policy context. What does this paper add? This paper provides an investigation into the achievability of IPS within DES philosophical and contractual arrangements. What are the implications for practitioners? Mental health practitioners are typically skilled in their understanding of individual or micro-level challenges faced by consumers in achieving vocational goals: working with symptoms, medication side effects, motivation and anxiety. The present study was designed to offer practitioners an increased understanding of service-level factors, because these present considerable challenges to achieving sustained employment. This paper is a call for greater advocacy towards better integration of employment and mental health service delivery in the Australian policy and practice context.

Evaluating different scenarios for Tradable Green Certificates by game theory approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaffari, Meysam; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

2018-06-01

Right now employment of polices and tools to decrease the carbon emission through electricity generation from renewable resources is one of the most important problem in energy policy. Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) is an economics mechanism to support green power generation. Any country has the challenge to choose an appropriate policy and mechanism for design and implementation of TGC. The purpose of this study is to help policy makers to design and choose the best scenario of TGC by evaluating six scenarios, based on game theory approach. This study will be useful for increasing the effectiveness of TGC system in interaction with electricity market. Particularly, the competition between thermal and renewable power plants is modeled by mathematical modeling tools such as cooperative games like Nash and Stackelberg. Each game is modeled by taking into account of the two following policies. The results of the six scenarios and the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters have been evaluated by numerical studies. Finally, in order to evaluate the scenarios we calculated the level of social welfare in the all scenarios. The results of all models demonstrate that when the green electricity share (minimum requirement) increases the TGC price decreases. Moreover, in all scenarios when the minimum requirement is 100% then the maximum level of social welfare is not met. Also when the minimum requirement is less than 50%, the scenarios with the market TGC price policy have more social welfare in comparison with the scenarios with fixed TGC price policy.

Little Association Between Wellness Policies and School-Reported Nutrition Practices

PubMed Central

Lucarelli, Jennifer F.; Alaimo, Katherine; Belansky, Elaine S.; Mang, Ellen; Miles, Richard; Kelleher, Deanne K.; Bailey, Deborah; Drzal, Nicholas B.; Liu, Hui

2017-01-01

Background The Child Nutrition and WIC Reauthorization Act of 2004 mandated written school wellness policies. Little evidence exists to evaluate the impact of such policies. This study assessed the quality (comprehensiveness of topics addressed and strength of wording) of wellness policies and the agreement between written district-level policies and school-reported nutrition policies and practices in 48 low-income Michigan school districts participating in the School Nutrition Advances Kids study. Method Written wellness policy quality was assessed using the School Wellness Policy Evaluation Tool. School nutrition policies and practices were assessed using the School Environment and Policy Survey. Analysis of variance determined differences in policy quality, and Fisher’s exact test examined agreement between written policies and school-reported practices. Results Written wellness policies contained ambiguous language and addressed few practices, indicating low comprehensiveness and strength. Most districts adopted model wellness policy templates without modification, and the template used was the primary determinant of policy quality. Written wellness policies often did not reflect school-reported nutrition policies and practices. Conclusions School health advocates should avoid assumptions that written wellness policies accurately reflect school practices. Encouraging policy template customization and stronger, more specific language may enhance wellness policy quality, ensure consistency between policy and practice, and enhance implementation of school nutrition initiatives. PMID:25249567

Game Theoretical Analysis on Cooperation Stability and Incentive Effectiveness in Community Networks.

PubMed

Song, Kaida; Wang, Rui; Liu, Yi; Qian, Depei; Zhang, Han; Cai, Jihong

2015-01-01

Community networks, the distinguishing feature of which is membership admittance, appear on P2P networks, social networks, and conventional Web networks. Joining the network costs money, time or network bandwidth, but the individuals get access to special resources owned by the community in return. The prosperity and stability of the community are determined by both the policy of admittance and the attraction of the privileges gained by joining. However, some misbehaving users can get the dedicated resources with some illicit and low-cost approaches, which introduce instability into the community, a phenomenon that will destroy the membership policy. In this paper, we analyze on the stability using game theory on such a phenomenon. We propose a game-theoretical model of stability analysis in community networks and provide conditions for a stable community. We then extend the model to analyze the effectiveness of different incentive policies, which could be used when the community cannot maintain its members in certain situations. Then we verify those models through a simulation. Finally, we discuss several ways to promote community network's stability by adjusting the network's properties and give some proposal on the designs of these types of networks from the points of game theory and stability.

Transforming Schools or Tinkering? An Analysis of CCSSO's Model Core Teaching Standards. A Center Policy & Practice Analysis Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Mental Health in Schools at UCLA, 2010

2010-01-01

This report continues a series analyzing proposals and blueprints for transforming schools from the perspective of how well they delineate ways to enable equity of opportunity for "all" students to succeed at school. The focus of this report is on the July 2010 draft of CCSSO's (Council of Chief State School Office's) "Model Core Teaching…

Alternative policies for the control of air pollution in Poland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bates, R.; Cofala, J.; Toman, M.

1994-01-01

Like other Central European countries, Poland faces the twin challenges of improving environmental quality while also promoting economic development. The study examines the cost of achieving alternative emission standards and the savings in abatement cost that might be achieved with policies that rely on economic incentives rather than with rigid command and control measures. A central element of the analysis is a dynamic model of least-cost energy supply in Poland that allows examination at a national level of the effects of different pollution standards and policies.

Using uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in socioecological agent-based models to improve their analytical performance and policy relevance.

PubMed

Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Kramer, Daniel B; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Soranno, Patricia A

2014-01-01

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study socioecological systems. They are useful for studying such systems because of their ability to incorporate micro-level behaviors among interacting agents, and to understand emergent phenomena due to these interactions. However, ABMs are inherently stochastic and require proper handling of uncertainty. We propose a simulation framework based on quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to build parsimonious ABMs that serve two purposes: exploration of the outcome space to simulate low-probability but high-consequence events that may have significant policy implications, and explanation of model behavior to describe the system with higher accuracy. The proposed framework is applied to the problem of modeling farmland conservation resulting in land use change. We employ output variance decomposition based on quasi-random sampling of the input space and perform three computational experiments. First, we perform uncertainty analysis to improve model legitimacy, where the distribution of results informs us about the expected value that can be validated against independent data, and provides information on the variance around this mean as well as the extreme results. In our last two computational experiments, we employ sensitivity analysis to produce two simpler versions of the ABM. First, input space is reduced only to inputs that produced the variance of the initial ABM, resulting in a model with output distribution similar to the initial model. Second, we refine the value of the most influential input, producing a model that maintains the mean of the output of initial ABM but with less spread. These simplifications can be used to 1) efficiently explore model outcomes, including outliers that may be important considerations in the design of robust policies, and 2) conduct explanatory analysis that exposes the smallest number of inputs influencing the steady state of the modeled system.

Using Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses in Socioecological Agent-Based Models to Improve Their Analytical Performance and Policy Relevance

PubMed Central

Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Kramer, Daniel B.; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Soranno, Patricia A.

2014-01-01

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study socioecological systems. They are useful for studying such systems because of their ability to incorporate micro-level behaviors among interacting agents, and to understand emergent phenomena due to these interactions. However, ABMs are inherently stochastic and require proper handling of uncertainty. We propose a simulation framework based on quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to build parsimonious ABMs that serve two purposes: exploration of the outcome space to simulate low-probability but high-consequence events that may have significant policy implications, and explanation of model behavior to describe the system with higher accuracy. The proposed framework is applied to the problem of modeling farmland conservation resulting in land use change. We employ output variance decomposition based on quasi-random sampling of the input space and perform three computational experiments. First, we perform uncertainty analysis to improve model legitimacy, where the distribution of results informs us about the expected value that can be validated against independent data, and provides information on the variance around this mean as well as the extreme results. In our last two computational experiments, we employ sensitivity analysis to produce two simpler versions of the ABM. First, input space is reduced only to inputs that produced the variance of the initial ABM, resulting in a model with output distribution similar to the initial model. Second, we refine the value of the most influential input, producing a model that maintains the mean of the output of initial ABM but with less spread. These simplifications can be used to 1) efficiently explore model outcomes, including outliers that may be important considerations in the design of robust policies, and 2) conduct explanatory analysis that exposes the smallest number of inputs influencing the steady state of the modeled system. PMID:25340764

Emissions from ships in the northwestern United States.

PubMed

Corbett, James J

2002-03-15

Recent inventory efforts have focused on developing nonroad inventories for emissions modeling and policy insights. Characterizing these inventories geographically and explicitly treating the uncertaintiesthat result from limited emissions testing, incomplete activity and usage data, and other important input parameters currently pose the largest methodological challenges. This paper presents a commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions inventory for Washington and Oregon using detailed statistics regarding fuel consumption, vessel movements, and cargo volumes for the Columbia and Snake River systems. The inventory estimates emissions for oxides of nitrogen (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and oxides of sulfur (SOx). This analysis estimates that annual NOx emissions from marine transportation in the Columbia and Snake River systems in Washington and Oregon equal 6900 t of NOx (as NO2) per year, 2.6 times greater than previous NO, inventories for this region. Statewide CMV NO, emissions are estimated to be 9,800 t of NOx per year. By relying on a "bottom-up" fuel consumption model that includes vessel characteristics and transit information, the river system inventory may be more accurate than previous estimates. This inventory provides modelers with bounded parametric inputs for sensitivity analysis in pollution modeling. The ability to parametrically model the uncertainty in commercial marine vessel inventories also will help policy-makers determine whether better policy decisions can be enabled through further vessel testing and improved inventory resolution.

The value of superpower-submitted INDCs in cooperative and non-cooperative action scenarios: economic impact, dynamic risk, and temperature rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustin, C. M.

2015-12-01

As the 2015 Paris climate talks near, policy discussions are focused on "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) submitted in advance of the discussions. As the major global emitters - specifically the United States and China - have already submitted their INDCs, we have a point of comparison for evaluating the relative potential impacts of the proposed targets. By applying integrated assessment models to robust, publicly available data sets,we aim to evaluate the interplay between climate change and economic development, comment on emissions reduction scenarios in cooperative and non-cooperative situations, and assess the dynamic risks of multiple regional emissions scenarios. We use both the RICE model and the C-ROADS model to examine alternative regional outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages,under different reduction scenarios, including a scenario where geo-engineering plays a prominent role. These simulators allow us to vary emissions, population, and economic levels in China and the United States specifically to comment on the international climate risk impact of actors working jointly - or not - toward a global climate goal. In a complementary piece of analysis we seek to understand the value judgments, trade-offs, and regional policies that would lead to favorable climate finance flows. To reach an international sample of industry decision-makers, we propose a novel application of a standard discrete-choice survey methodology. A conjoint analysis requires a participant to chose between combinations of attributes and identify trade-offs while allowing the researcher to determine the relative importance of each individual attribute by mathematically assessing the impact each attribute could have on total item utility. As climate policy negotiations will consist of allocation of scarce resources and rejection of certain attributes, a conjoint analysis is an ideal tool for evaluating policy outcomes. This research program seeks to provide a commentary useful to policy makers on the most desirable outcomes of the negotiations and other international cooperation.

Analysis of higher education policy frameworks for open and distance education in Pakistan.

PubMed

Ellahi, Abida; Zaka, Bilal

2015-04-01

The constant rise in demand for higher education has become the biggest challenge for educational planners. This high demand has paved a way for distance education across the globe. This article innovatively analyzes the policy documentation of a major distance education initiative in Pakistan for validity that will identify the utility of policy linkages. The study adopted a qualitative research design that consisted of two steps. In the first step, a content analysis of distance learning policy framework was made. For this purpose, two documents were accessed titled "Framework for Launching Distance Learning Programs in HEIs of Pakistan" and "Guideline on Quality of Distance Education for External Students at the HEIs of Pakistan." In the second step, the policy guidelines mentioned in these two documents were evaluated at two levels. At the first level, the overall policy documents were assessed against a criterion proposed by Cheung, Mirzaei, and Leeder. At the second level, the proposed program of distance learning was assessed against a criterion set by Gellman-Danley and Fetzner and Berge. The distance education program initiative in Pakistan is of promising nature which needs to be assessed regularly. This study has made an initial attempt to assess the policy document against a criterion identified from literature. The analysis shows that the current policy documents do offer some strengths at this initial level, however, they cannot be considered a comprehensive policy guide. The inclusion or correction of missing or vague areas identified in this study would make this policy guideline document a treasured tool for Higher Education Commission (HEC). For distance education policy makers, this distance education policy framework model recognizes several fundamental areas with which they should be concerned. The findings of this study in the light of two different policy framework measures highlight certain opportunities that can help strengthening the distance education policies. The criteria and findings are useful for the reviewers of policy proposals to identify the gaps where policy documents can be improved to bring the desired outcomes. © The Author(s) 2015.

The ends of uncertainty: Air quality science and planning in Central California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fine, James

Air quality planning in Central California is complicated and controversial despite millions of dollars invested to improve scientific understanding. This research describes and critiques the use of photochemical air quality simulation modeling studies in planning to attain standards for ground-level ozone in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley during the 1990's. Data are gathered through documents and interviews with planners, modelers, and policy-makers at public agencies and with representatives from the regulated and environmental communities. Interactions amongst organizations are diagramed to identify significant nodes of interaction. Dominant policy coalitions are described through narratives distinguished by theirmore » uses of and responses to uncertainty, their exposures to risks, and their responses to the principles of conservatism, civil duty, and caution. Policy narratives are delineated using aggregated respondent statements to describe and understand advocacy coalitions. I found that models impacted the planning process significantly, but were used not purely for their scientific capabilities. Modeling results provided justification for decisions based on other constraints and political considerations. Uncertainties were utilized opportunistically by stakeholders instead of managed explicitly. Ultimately, the process supported the partisan views of those in control of the modeling. Based on these findings, as well as a review of model uncertainty analysis capabilities, I recommend modifying the planning process to allow for the development and incorporation of uncertainty information, while addressing the need for inclusive and meaningful public participation. By documenting an actual air quality planning process these findings provide insights about the potential for using new scientific information and understanding to achieve environmental goals, most notably the analysis of uncertainties in modeling applications. Concurrently, needed uncertainty information is identified and capabilities to produce it are assessed. Practices to facilitate incorporation of uncertainty information are suggested based on research findings, as well as theory from the literatures of the policy sciences, decision sciences, science and technology studies, consensus-based and communicative planning, and modeling.« less

Empirical models of demand for out-patient physician services and their relevance to the assessment of patient payment policies: a critical review of the literature.

PubMed

Skriabikova, Olga; Pavlova, Milena; Groot, Wim

2010-06-01

This paper reviews the existing empirical micro-level models of demand for out-patient physician services where the size of patient payment is included either directly as an independent variable (when a flat-rate co-payment fee) or indirectly as a level of deductibles and/or co-insurance defined by the insurance coverage. The paper also discusses the relevance of these models for the assessment of patient payment policies. For this purpose, a systematic literature review is carried out. In total, 46 relevant publications were identified. These publications are classified into categories based on their general approach to demand modeling, specifications of data collection, data analysis, and main empirical findings. The analysis indicates a rising research interest in the empirical micro-level models of demand for out-patient physician services that incorporate the size of patient payment. Overall, the size of patient payments, consumer socio-economic and demographic features, and quality of services provided emerge as important determinants of demand for out-patient physician services. However, there is a great variety in the modeling approaches and inconsistencies in the findings regarding the impact of price on demand for out-patient physician services. Hitherto, the empirical research fails to offer policy-makers a clear strategy on how to develop a country-specific model of demand for out-patient physician services suitable for the assessment of patient payment policies in their countries. In particular, theoretically important factors, such as provider behavior, consumer attitudes, experience and culture, and informal patient payments, are not considered. Although we recognize that it is difficult to measure these factors and to incorporate them in the demand models, it is apparent that there is a gap in research for the construction of effective patient payment schemes.

Empirical Models of Demand for Out-Patient Physician Services and Their Relevance to the Assessment of Patient Payment Policies: A Critical Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Skriabikova, Olga; Pavlova, Milena; Groot, Wim

2010-01-01

This paper reviews the existing empirical micro-level models of demand for out-patient physician services where the size of patient payment is included either directly as an independent variable (when a flat-rate co-payment fee) or indirectly as a level of deductibles and/or co-insurance defined by the insurance coverage. The paper also discusses the relevance of these models for the assessment of patient payment policies. For this purpose, a systematic literature review is carried out. In total, 46 relevant publications were identified. These publications are classified into categories based on their general approach to demand modeling, specifications of data collection, data analysis, and main empirical findings. The analysis indicates a rising research interest in the empirical micro-level models of demand for out-patient physician services that incorporate the size of patient payment. Overall, the size of patient payments, consumer socio-economic and demographic features, and quality of services provided emerge as important determinants of demand for out-patient physician services. However, there is a great variety in the modeling approaches and inconsistencies in the findings regarding the impact of price on demand for out-patient physician services. Hitherto, the empirical research fails to offer policy-makers a clear strategy on how to develop a country-specific model of demand for out-patient physician services suitable for the assessment of patient payment policies in their countries. In particular, theoretically important factors, such as provider behavior, consumer attitudes, experience and culture, and informal patient payments, are not considered. Although we recognize that it is difficult to measure these factors and to incorporate them in the demand models, it is apparent that there is a gap in research for the construction of effective patient payment schemes. PMID:20644697

Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

2013-01-01

This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

Policy Analysis: Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

PubMed

Banzhaf, H Spencer; Burtraw, Dallas; Criscimagna, Susie Chung; Cosby, Bernard J; Evans, David A; Krupnick, Alan J; Siikamäki, Juha V

2016-03-15

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we estimate the economic value of ecological benefits from new air pollution policies in the Southern Appalachian ecosystem. Our results indicate that these policies generate aggregate benefits of about $3.7 billion, or about $16 per year per household in the region. The study provides currently missing information about the ecological benefits from air pollution policies that is needed to evaluate such policies comprehensively. More broadly, the study also illustrates how integrated biogeochemical and economic assessments of multidimensional ecosystems can evaluate the relative benefits of different policy options that vary by scale and across ecosystem attributes.

Renewable Energy Deployment in Colorado and the West: Extended Policy Sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barrows, Clayton P.; Stoll, Brady; Mooney, Meghan E.

The Resource Planning Model is a capacity expansion model designed for a regional power system, such as a utility service territory, state, or balancing authority. We apply a geospatial analysis to Resource Planning Model renewable energy capacity expansion results to understand the likelihood of renewable development on various lands within Colorado.

MAGDAIRE: A Model to Foster Pre-Service Teachers' Ability in Integrating ICT and Teaching in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Chun-Yen; Chien, Yu-Ta; Chang, Yueh-Hsia; Lin, Chen-Yung

2012-01-01

This report describes our efforts in fostering Taiwanese pre-service teachers' ability to integrate information and communication technology (ICT) and teaching. The current state of science teacher education and ICT policies in Taiwan are documented briefly. The course model, MAGDAIRE (abbreviated from Modeled Analysis, Guided Development,…

A critical analysis of Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services policy in England.

PubMed

Callaghan, Jane Em; Fellin, Lisa Chiara; Warner-Gale, Fiona

2017-01-01

Policy on Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) in England has undergone radical changes in the last 15 years, with far reaching implications for funding models, access to services and service delivery. Using corpus analysis and critical discourse analysis, we explore how childhood, mental health and CAMHS are constituted in 15 policy documents, 9 pre-2010 and 6 post-2010. We trace how these constructions have changed over time and consider the practice implications of these changes. We identify how children's distress is individualised, through medicalising discourses and shifting understandings of the relationship between socio-economic context and mental health. This is evidenced in a shift from seeing children's mental health challenges as produced by social and economic inequities to a view that children's mental health must be addressed early to prevent future socio-economic burden. We consider the implications of CAMHS policies for the relationship between children, families, mental health services and the state. The article concludes by exploring how concepts of 'parity of esteem' and 'stigma reduction' may inadvertently exacerbate the individualisation of children's mental health.

The utilisation of health research in policy-making: concepts, examples and methods of assessment

PubMed Central

Hanney, Stephen R; Gonzalez-Block, Miguel A; Buxton, Martin J; Kogan, Maurice

2003-01-01

The importance of health research utilisation in policy-making, and of understanding the mechanisms involved, is increasingly recognised. Recent reports calling for more resources to improve health in developing countries, and global pressures for accountability, draw greater attention to research-informed policy-making. Key utilisation issues have been described for at least twenty years, but the growing focus on health research systems creates additional dimensions. The utilisation of health research in policy-making should contribute to policies that may eventually lead to desired outcomes, including health gains. In this article, exploration of these issues is combined with a review of various forms of policy-making. When this is linked to analysis of different types of health research, it assists in building a comprehensive account of the diverse meanings of research utilisation. Previous studies report methods and conceptual frameworks that have been applied, if with varying degrees of success, to record utilisation in policy-making. These studies reveal various examples of research impact within a general picture of underutilisation. Factors potentially enhancing utilisation can be identified by exploration of: priority setting; activities of the health research system at the interface between research and policy-making; and the role of the recipients, or 'receptors', of health research. An interfaces and receptors model provides a framework for analysis. Recommendations about possible methods for assessing health research utilisation follow identification of the purposes of such assessments. Our conclusion is that research utilisation can be better understood, and enhanced, by developing assessment methods informed by conceptual analysis and review of previous studies. PMID:12646071

Equity analysis of land use and transport plans using an integrated spatial model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

This paper describes a study to investigate how a spatial economic model can be used to evaluate the equity effects of land use and transport policies intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Activity Allocation Module of the PECAS (Productio...

Research Workforce Diversity: The Case of Balancing National versus International Postdocs in US Biomedical Research

PubMed Central

Ghaffarzadegan, Navid; Hawley, Joshua; Desai, Anand

2013-01-01

The US government has been increasingly supporting postdoctoral training in biomedical sciences to develop the domestic research workforce. However, current trends suggest that mostly international researchers benefit from the funding, many of whom might leave the USA after training. In this paper, we describe a model used to analyse the flow of national versus international researchers into and out of postdoctoral training. We calibrate our model in the case of the USA and successfully replicate the data. We use the model to conduct simulation-based analyses of effects of different policies on the diversity of postdoctoral researchers. Our model shows that capping the duration of postdoctoral careers, a policy proposed previously, favours international postdoctoral researchers. The analysis suggests that the leverage point to help the growth of domestic research workforce is in the pregraduate education area, and many policies implemented at the postgraduate level have minimal or unintended effects on diversity. PMID:25368504

Optimal replenishment and credit policy in supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit with time- and credit-sensitive demand involving default risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahata, Puspita; Mahata, Gour Chandra; Kumar De, Sujit

2018-03-01

Traditional supply chain inventory modes with trade credit usually only assumed that the up-stream suppliers offered the down-stream retailers a fixed credit period. However, in practice the retailers will also provide a credit period to customers to promote the market competition. In this paper, we formulate an optimal supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit policy with default risk consideration. Here, the demand is assumed to be credit-sensitive and increasing function of time. The major objective is to determine the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time such that the total profit per unit time is maximized. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution to the presented model are examined, and an easy method is also shown to find the optimal inventory policies of the considered problem. Finally, numerical examples and sensitive analysis are presented to illustrate the developed model and to provide some managerial insights.

Health Insurance Coverage and Take-Up: Lessons from Behavioral Economics

PubMed Central

Baicker, Katherine; Congdon, William J; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2012-01-01

Context Millions of uninsured Americans ostensibly have insurance available to them—many at very low cost—but do not take it up. Traditional economic analysis is based on the premise that these are rational decisions, but it is hard to reconcile observed enrollment patterns with this view. The policy prescriptions that the traditional model generates may thus fail to achieve their goals. Behavioral economics, which integrates insights from psychology into economic analysis, identifies important deviations from the traditional assumptions of rationality and can thus improve our understanding of what drives health insurance take-up and improved policy design. Methods Rather than a systematic review of the coverage literature, this article is a primer for considering issues in health insurance coverage from a behavioral economics perspective, supplementing the standard model. We present relevant evidence on decision making and insurance take-up and use it to develop a behavioral approach to both the policy problem posed by the lack of health insurance coverage and possible policy solutions to that problem. Findings We found that evidence from behavioral economics can shed light on both the sources of low take-up and the efficacy of different policy levers intended to expand coverage. We then applied these insights to policy design questions for public and private insurance coverage and to the implementation of the recently enacted health reform, focusing on the use of behavioral insights to maximize the value of spending on coverage. Conclusions We concluded that the success of health insurance coverage reform depends crucially on understanding the behavioral barriers to take-up. The take-up process is likely governed by psychology as much as economics, and public resources can likely be used much more effectively with behaviorally informed policy design. PMID:22428694

Human papillomavirus vaccination: what is the best choice? A comparison of 16 strategies by means of a decisional model.

PubMed

Gasparini, R; Amicizia, D; Manfredi, P; Ansaldi, F; Lucioni, C; Gallelli, G; Panatto, D

2009-06-01

Some European countries decided to include human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in national immunization schedules. In order to help decision makers choose the best vaccination policy for females, a decisional model has been developed. The study was performed from the National Health Service perspective. Several hypotheses of multi-cohort vaccination policies were compared. 'Potentially avoidable infections' were chosen as the outcome. The model envisioned a short-term scenario (2008-2011). The best policy was that of vaccinating 12-year-olds and, a year later, those aged 14-16 years; the most expensive strategy was that of vaccinating 12-year-old females and, after 1 year, vaccinating those aged 15, 18 and 25 years. The sensitivity analysis showed that coverage rate has a great effect on the cost of avoidable infections. The study offers stake-holders an important datum-point for the choice of the best HPV policy vaccination in the short term. Indeed, it could generate interesting savings for the National Health Service and a rapid HPV immunization of young girls.

Analysis of influencing factors on public perception in contaminated site management: Simulation by structural equation modeling at four sites in China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaonuo; Chen, Weiping; Cundy, Andrew B; Chang, Andrew C; Jiao, Wentao

2018-03-15

Public perception towards contaminated site management, a not readily quantifiable latent parameter, was linked through structural equation modeling in this paper to 22 measurable/observable manifest variables associated with the extent of information dissemination and public knowledge of soil pollution, attitude towards remediation policies, and participation in risk mitigation processes. Data obtained through a survey of 412 community residents at four remediation sites in China were employed in the model validation. The outcomes showed that public perception towards contaminated site management might be explained through selected measurable parameters in five categories, namely information disclosure, knowledge of soil pollution, expectations of remediation and redevelopment outcomes, public participation, and site policy, along with their interactions. Among these, information dissemination and attitude towards management policies exhibited significant influence in promoting positive public perception. Based on these examples, responsible agencies therefore should focus on public accessibility to reliable information, and encourage public inputs into policies for contaminated site management, in order to gain public confidence during remediation and regeneration projects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alcohol affordability and alcohol demand: cross-country trends and panel data estimates, 1975 to 2008.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2014-04-01

Relatively little is known about cross-country differences in alcohol affordability or factors that determine differences in affordability over time. This information is potentially important for alcohol policy, especially policies that focus on higher taxes or prices to reduce total alcohol consumption. This study estimates cross-country alcohol consumption relationships using economic models incorporating income and prices and alternative models based on alcohol affordability. The data and analysis are restricted to higher income countries. Data for alcohol consumption per capita (ages 15+) are analyzed for 2 samples: first, 17 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the period 1975 to 2000; second, 22 countries in the European Union for the period from 2000 to 2008. Panel data models are utilized, with country and time fixed-effects to control for confounding influences. In economic demand models, covariates are real per capita income and real alcohol price indices. In affordability models, income is divided by prices to yield an index of alcohol affordability. Analysis of data trends reveals that much of the increase in affordability is due to rising real incomes, and not falling real prices. Economic models of demand perform slightly better statistically, but differences are not substantial as income and affordability are highly correlated. For both samples, exogenous rates of growth of alcohol consumption are negative. Price and income elasticities, on average, are within the range of prior estimates. Affordability elasticities are between 0.21 and 0.25. Although alcohol affordability is a valid concept statistically, its use in policy discussions tends to hide underlying causes of changes in affordability. A better approach is a comparison and analysis of trends and cross-country differences in real incomes and real alcohol prices together with the affordability index. Country-level analysis of income and price elasticities also is required. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Reforms: a quest for efficiency or an opportunity for vested interests'? A case study of pharmaceutical policy reforms in Tanzania.

PubMed

Mori, Amani Thomas; Kaale, Eliangiringa Amos; Risha, Peter

2013-07-13

Regulation of the pharmaceutical sector is a challenging task for most governments in the developing countries. In Tanzania, this task falls under the Food and Drugs Authority and the Pharmacy Council. In 2010, the Pharmacy Council spearheaded policy reforms in the pharmaceutical sector aimed at taking over the control of the regulation of the business of pharmacy from the Tanzania Food and Drugs Authority. This study provides a critical analysis of these reforms. The study employed a qualitative case-study design. Data was collected through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and document reviews. Data was analyzed thematically using a policy triangle framework. The analysis was done manually. The reforms adopted an incremental model of public policy-making and the process was characterized by lobbying for political support, negotiations and bargaining between the interest groups. These negotiations were largely centred on vested interests and not on the impact of the reforms on the efficiency of pharmaceutical regulations in the country. Stakeholders from the micro and meso levels were minimally involved in the policy reforms. Recent pharmaceutical regulation reforms in Tanzania were overshadowed by vested interests, displacing a critical analysis of optimal policy options that have the potential to increase efficiency in the regulation of the business of pharmacy. Politics influenced decision-making at different levels of the reform process.

Formal Specification and Automatic Analysis of Business Processes under Authorization Constraints: An Action-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armando, Alessandro; Giunchiglia, Enrico; Ponta, Serena Elisa

We present an approach to the formal specification and automatic analysis of business processes under authorization constraints based on the action language \\cal{C}. The use of \\cal{C} allows for a natural and concise modeling of the business process and the associated security policy and for the automatic analysis of the resulting specification by using the Causal Calculator (CCALC). Our approach improves upon previous work by greatly simplifying the specification step while retaining the ability to perform a fully automatic analysis. To illustrate the effectiveness of the approach we describe its application to a version of a business process taken from the banking domain and use CCALC to determine resource allocation plans complying with the security policy.

Conceptual framework for describing selected urban and community impacts of federal energy policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, F.A,; Marcus, A.A.; Keller, D.

1980-06-01

A conceptual framework is presented for describing selected urban and community impacts of Federal energy policies. The framework depends on a simple causal model. The outputs of the model are impacts, changes in the state of the world of particular interest to policymakers. At any given time, a set of determinants account for the state of the world with respect to an impact category. Application of the model to a particular impact category requires: establishing a definition and measure for the impact category and identifying the determinants of these impacts. Analysis of the impact of a particular policy requires themore » following: identifying the policy and its effects (as estimated by others), isolating any effects that themselves constitute an urban and community impact, identifying any effects that change the value of determinants, and describing the impact with reference to the new values of determinants. This report provides a framework for these steps. Three impacts addressed are: neighborhood stability, housing availability, and quality and availability of public services. In each chapter, a definition and measure for the impact are specified; its principal determinants are identified; how the causal model can be used to estimate impacts by applying it to three illustrative Federal policies (domestic oil price decontrol, building energy performance standards, and increased Federal aid for mass transit) is demonstrated. (MCW)« less

Improving Safe Sleep Modeling in the Hospital through Policy Implementation.

PubMed

Heitmann, Rachel; Nilles, Ester K; Jeans, Ashley; Moreland, Jackie; Clarke, Chris; McDonald, Morgan F; Warren, Michael D

2017-11-01

Introduction Sleep-related infant deaths are major contributors to Tennessee's high infant mortality rate. The purpose of this initiative was to evaluate the impact of policy-based efforts to improve modeling of safe sleep practices by health care providers in hospital settings across Tennessee. Methods Safe sleep policies were developed and implemented at 71 hospitals in Tennessee. Policies, at minimum, were required to address staff training on the American Academy of Pediatrics' safe sleep recommendations, correct modeling of infant safe sleep practices, and parent education. Hospital data on process measures related to training and results of crib audits were compiled for analysis. Results The overall observance of infants who were found with any risk factors for unsafe sleep decreased 45.6% (p ≤ 0.001) from the first crib audit to the last crib audit. Significant decreases were noted for specific risk factors, including infants found asleep not on their back, with a toy or object in the crib, and not sleeping in a crib. Significant improvements were observed at hospitals where printed materials or video were utilized for training staff compared to face-to-face training. Discussion Statewide implementation of the hospital policy intervention resulted in significant reductions in infants found in unsafe sleep situations. The most common risk factors for sleep-related infant deaths can be modeled in hospitals. This effort has the potential to reduce sleep-related infant deaths and ultimately infant mortality.

Integrative practice policy in Recife, northeastern Brazil: an analysis of stakeholder involvement.

PubMed

Santos, Francisco Assis da Silva; Sousa, Islândia Maria Carvalho de; Gurgel, Idê Gomes Dantas; Bezerra, Adriana Falangola Benjamin; Barros, Nelson Filice de

2011-12-01

To examine the involvement of stakeholders in the implementation of a local policy of integrative practices. Qualitative study conducted in the city of Recife, Northeastern Brazil. Data was collected from local health board records between 2004 and 2009, interviews with managers and key informants and focus groups with providers and users. The analysis was performed using the condensation of meaning model. The results were grouped into four categories of stakeholders according to their influence and interest, namely: subjects; population; leaders; and players. Five years after the policy was implemented in Recife, only a single service offered integrative practices. The population, or users, did not have any effective involvement and did not make any contributions to the policy, and health providers, despite their willingness to participate in the process, were not involved. The leaders included the local health board, managers and medical organizations; the latter two were also players as they were effectively involved in the formulation of the policy. The involvement of few stakeholders in the formulation of an integrative practice policy makes it difficult its implementation and widens the gap between formulation and implementation, hindering the achievement of expected results.

Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics

PubMed Central

Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M.; Cauchemez, Simon

2016-01-01

School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome. PMID:26796333

Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

PubMed

Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon

2016-01-01

School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies,more » market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Preliminary Analysis of the efficacy of Artificial neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) based Land Use Models in Urban Land-Use Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harun, R.

2013-05-01

This research provides an opportunity of collaboration between urban planners and modellers by providing a clear theoretical foundations on the two most widely used urban land use models, and assessing the effectiveness of applying the models in urban planning context. Understanding urban land cover change is an essential element for sustainable urban development as it affects ecological functioning in urban ecosystem. Rapid urbanization due to growing inclination of people to settle in urban areas has increased the complexities in predicting that at what shape and size cities will grow. The dynamic changes in the spatial pattern of urban landscapes has exposed the policy makers and environmental scientists to great challenge. But geographic science has grown in symmetry to the advancements in computer science. Models and tools are developed to support urban planning by analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes and project the future. Of all the different types of land use models available in recent days, it has been found by researchers that the most frequently used models are Cellular Automaton (CA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models. But studies have demonstrated that the existing land use models have not been able to meet the needs of planners and policy makers. There are two primary causes identified behind this prologue. First, there is inadequate understanding of the fundamental theories and application of the models in urban planning context i.e., there is a gap in communication between modellers and urban planners. Second, the existing models exclude many key drivers in the process of simplification of the complex urban system that guide urban spatial pattern. Thus the models end up being effective in assessing the impacts of certain land use policies, but cannot contribute in new policy formulation. This paper is an attempt to increase the knowledge base of planners on the most frequently used land use model and also assess the relative effectiveness of the two models, ANN and CA, in urban planning. The questions that are addressed in this research are: a) What makes ANN models different from CA models?; b) Which model has higher accuracy in predicting future urban land use change?; and c) Are the models effective enough in guiding urban land use policies and strategies? The models that are used for this research are Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and CA model, available in IDRISI Taiga. Since, the objective is to perform a comparative analysis and draw general inferences irrespective of specific urban policies, the availability of data was given more emphasis over the selection of particular location. Urban area in Massachusetts was chosen to conduct the study due to data availability. Extensive literature review was performed to understand the functionality of the two models. The models were applied to predict future changes and the accuracy assessment was performed using standard matrix. Inferences were drawn about the applicability of the models in urban planning context along with recommendations. This research will not only develop understanding of land use models among urban planners, but also will create an environment of coupled research between planners and modellers.

Philipp Beiter | NREL

Science.gov Websites

the Strategic Energy Analysis Center. Areas of Expertise Cost modeling and economic analysis of , 2011 Prior Work Experience Junior Policy Analyst, Organization for Economic Co-operation and . Smith. 2017. An Assessment of the Economic Potential of Offshore Wind in the United States from 2015 to

An in-house manual for building APEX projects using ArcAPEX

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) provides the foundation for water quality and natural resource analysis across a wide array of USDA initiatives, projects and programs. The model has been utilized in both the national Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) analysis and ...

Towards the use of Structural Loop Analysis to Study System Behaviour of Socio-Ecological Systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abram, Joseph; Dyke, James

2016-04-01

Maintaining socio-ecological systems in desirable states is key to developing a growing economy, alleviating poverty and achieving a sustainable future. While the driving forces of an environmental system are often well known, the dynamics impacting these drivers can be hidden within a tangled structure of causal chains and feedback loops. A lack of understanding of a system's dynamic structure and its influence on a system's behaviour can cause unforeseen side-effects during model scenario testing and policy implementation. Structural Loop analysis of socio-ecological system models identifies dominant feedback structures during times of behavioural shift, allowing the user to monitor key influential drivers during model simulation. This work carries out Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis (LEEA) on three system dynamic models, exploring tipping points in lake systems undergoing eutrophication. The purpose is to explore the potential benefits and limitations of the technique in the field of socio-ecology. The LEEA technique shows promise for socio-ecological systems which undergo regime shifts or express oscillatory trends, but shows limited usefulness with large models. The results of this work highlight changes in feedback loop dominance, years prior to eutrophic tipping events in lake systems. LEEA could be used as an early warning signal to impending system changes, complementary to other known early warning signals. This approach could improve our understanding during critical times of a system's behaviour, changing how we approach model analysis and the way scenario testing and policy implementation are addressed in socio-ecological system models.

Decision-Making in National Security Affairs: Toward a Typology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-06-07

decisional model, and thus provide the necessary linkage between observation and application of theory in explaining and/or predicting policy decisions . r...examines theories and models of decision -making processes from an interdisciplinary perspective, with a view toward deriving means by which the behavior of...processes, game theory , linear programming, network and graph theory , time series analysis, and the like. The discipline of decision analysis is a relatively

Re-examination of sea lamprey control policies for the St. Marys River: Completion of an adaptive management cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Michael L.; Brenden, Travis O.; Irwin, Brian J.

2015-01-01

The St. Marys River (SMR) historically has been a major producer of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In the early 2000s, a decision analysis (DA) project was conducted to evaluate sea lamprey control policies for the SMR; this project suggested that an integrated policy of trapping, sterile male releases, and Bayluscide treatment was the most cost-effective policy. Further, it concluded that formal assessment of larval sea lamprey abundance and distribution in the SMR would be valuable for future evaluation of control strategies. We updated this earlier analysis, adding information from annual larval assessments conducted since 1999 and evaluating additional control policies. Bayluscide treatments continued to be critical for sea lamprey control, but high recruitment compensation minimized the effectiveness of trapping and sterile male release under current feasible ranges. Because Bayluscide control is costly, development of strategies to enhance trapping success remains a priority. This study illustrates benefits of an adaptive management cycle, wherein models inform decisions, are updated based on learning achieved from those decisions, and ultimately inform future decisions.

On the pursuit of a nuclear development capability: The case of the Cuban nuclear program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamin-Alvarado, Jonathan Calvert

1998-09-01

While there have been many excellent descriptive accounts of modernization schemes in developing states, energy development studies based on prevalent modernization theory have been rare. Moreover, heretofore there have been very few analyses of efforts to develop a nuclear energy capability by developing states. Rarely have these analyses employed social science research methodologies. The purpose of this study was to develop a general analytical framework, based on such a methodology to analyze nuclear energy development and to utilize this framework for the study of the specific case of Cuba's decision to develop nuclear energy. The analytical framework developed focuses on a qualitative tracing of the process of Cuban policy objectives and implementation to develop a nuclear energy capability, and analyzes the policy in response to three models of modernization offered to explain the trajectory of policy development. These different approaches are the politically motivated modernization model, the economic and technological modernization model and the economic and energy security model. Each model provides distinct and functionally differentiated expectations for the path of development toward this objective. Each model provides expected behaviors to external stimuli that would result in specific policy responses. In the study, Cuba's nuclear policy responses to stimuli from domestic constraints and intensities, institutional development, and external influences are analyzed. The analysis revealed that in pursuing the nuclear energy capability, Cuba primarily responded by filtering most of the stimuli through the twin objectives of economic rationality and technological advancement. Based upon the Cuban policy responses to the domestic and international stimuli, the study concluded that the economic and technological modernization model of nuclear energy development offered a more complete explanation of the trajectory of policy development than either the politically-motivated or economic and energy security models. The findings of this case pose some interesting questions for the general study of energy programs in developing states. By applying the analytical framework employed in this study to a number of other cases, perhaps the understanding of energy development schemes may be expanded through future research.

Lessons from local engagement in Latin American health systems.

PubMed

Meads, Geoffrey D; Griffiths, Frances E; Goode, Sarah D; Iwami, Michiyo

2007-12-01

To examine the management of recent policies for stronger patient and public involvement in Latin American health systems, identifying common features and describing local practice examples of relevance to the UK. Participation is a core principle of many contemporary policies for health system reform. In Latin America, as in the UK, it is frequently associated with innovations in primary care services and their organizational developments. This shared interest in alternative models of local engagement offers new opportunities for collaborative research and policy development. Commissioned by UK policy makers, a 4-year research programme was designed to promote exchanges with international counterparts focusing on how modern reform policies are being implemented. The selected countries possessed comparable principles and timeframes for their reforms. A series of individual country case studies were undertaken. Data were drawn from literature and documentary reviews; semi-structured interviews with national policy makers and expert advisers; and with management representatives at local exemplar sites. The aggregate data were subjected to thematic analysis applying a model for sustainable development. Six common factors were identified in Latin American policies for stronger patient and public involvement. From these the most significant transferable learning for the UK relates to the position and status of professions and non-governmental agencies. Illustrative case exemplars were located in each of the eight countries studied.

Elements of effective palliative care models: a rapid review

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Population ageing, changes to the profiles of life-limiting illnesses and evolving societal attitudes prompt a critical evaluation of models of palliative care. We set out to identify evidence-based models of palliative care to inform policy reform in Australia. Method A rapid review of electronic databases and the grey literature was undertaken over an eight week period in April-June 2012. We included policy documents and comparative studies from countries within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published in English since 2001. Meta-analysis was planned where >1 study met criteria; otherwise, synthesis was narrative using methods described by Popay et al. (2006). Results Of 1,959 peer-reviewed articles, 23 reported systematic reviews, 9 additional RCTs and 34 non-randomised comparative studies. Variation in the content of models, contexts in which these were implemented and lack of detailed reporting meant that elements of models constituted a more meaningful unit of analysis than models themselves. Case management was the element most consistently reported in models for which comparative studies provided evidence for effectiveness. Essential attributes of population-based palliative care models identified by policy and addressed by more than one element were communication and coordination between providers (including primary care), skill enhancement, and capacity to respond rapidly to individuals’ changing needs and preferences over time. Conclusion Models of palliative care should integrate specialist expertise with primary and community care services and enable transitions across settings, including residential aged care. The increasing complexity of care needs, services, interventions and contextual drivers warrants future research aimed at elucidating the interactions between different components and the roles played by patient, provider and health system factors. The findings of this review are limited by its rapid methodology and focus on model elements relevant to Australia’s health system. PMID:24670065

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

PubMed

Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

Climate change policies and capital vintage effects: the cases of US pulp and paper, iron and steel, and ethylene.

PubMed

Ruth, Matthias; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur; Amato, Anthony

2004-03-01

Changes in material use, energy use and emissions profiles of industry are the result of complex interrelationships among a multitude of technological and economic drivers. To better understand and guide such changes requires that attention is paid to the time-varying consequences that technology and economic influences have on an industry's choice of inputs and its associated (desired and undesired) outputs. This paper lays out an approach to improving our understanding of the dynamics of large industrial systems. The approach combines engineering and econometric analysis with a detailed representation of an industry's capital stock structure. A transparent dynamic computer modeling approach is chosen to integrate information from these analyses in ways that foster participation of stakeholders from industry and government agencies in all stages of the modeling process-from problem definition and determination of system boundaries to generation of scenarios and interpretation of results. Three case studies of industrial energy use in the USA are presented-one each for the iron and steel, pulp and paper, and ethylene industry. Dynamic models of these industries are described and then used to investigate alternative carbon emissions and investment-led policies. A comparison of results clearly points towards two key issues: the need for industry specific policy approaches in order to effectively influence industrial energy use, fuel mix and carbon emissions, and the need for longer time horizons than have typically been chosen for the analysis of industrial responses to climate change policies.

Environmental Impact Assessment and End-of-Life Treatment Policy Analysis for Li-Ion Batteries and Ni-MH Batteries

PubMed Central

Yu, Yajuan; Chen, Bo; Huang, Kai; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong

2014-01-01

Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Eco-indicator 99 method, a LCA model was applied to conduct environmental impact and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for secondary batteries. This model evaluated the cycle, recycle and waste treatment stages of secondary batteries. Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries were chosen as the typical secondary batteries in this study. Through this research, the following results were found: (1) A basic number of cycles should be defined. A minimum cycle number of 200 would result in an obvious decline of environmental loads for both battery types. Batteries with high energy density and long life expectancy have small environmental loads. Products and technology that help increase energy density and life expectancy should be encouraged. (2) Secondary batteries should be sorted out from municipal garbage. Meanwhile, different types of discarded batteries should be treated separately under policies and regulations. (3) The incineration rate has obvious impact on the Eco-indicator points of Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries. The influence of recycle rate on Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is more obvious. These findings indicate that recycling is the most promising direction for reducing secondary batteries’ environmental loads. The model proposed here can be used to evaluate environmental loads of other secondary batteries and it can be useful for proposing policies and countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of secondary batteries. PMID:24646862

Environmental impact assessment and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for Li-ion batteries and Ni-MH batteries.

PubMed

Yu, Yajuan; Chen, Bo; Huang, Kai; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong

2014-03-18

Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Eco-indicator 99 method, a LCA model was applied to conduct environmental impact and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for secondary batteries. This model evaluated the cycle, recycle and waste treatment stages of secondary batteries. Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries were chosen as the typical secondary batteries in this study. Through this research, the following results were found: (1) A basic number of cycles should be defined. A minimum cycle number of 200 would result in an obvious decline of environmental loads for both battery types. Batteries with high energy density and long life expectancy have small environmental loads. Products and technology that help increase energy density and life expectancy should be encouraged. (2) Secondary batteries should be sorted out from municipal garbage. Meanwhile, different types of discarded batteries should be treated separately under policies and regulations. (3) The incineration rate has obvious impact on the Eco-indicator points of Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries. The influence of recycle rate on Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is more obvious. These findings indicate that recycling is the most promising direction for reducing secondary batteries' environmental loads. The model proposed here can be used to evaluate environmental loads of other secondary batteries and it can be useful for proposing policies and countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of secondary batteries.

Strategic Inventory Positioning of Navy Depot Level Repairable

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

determines the assignment of customers to the open facilities. A summary of these models can be found in texts by Hurter [1989], Daskin [1995], Drezner...policy for repairable items. NAVICP wishes to incorporate a strategic inventory positioning policy that reduces transportation costs. This thesis...each repairable item. Using results from SIP and historical transaction data, a cost comparative analysis of 176 of the highest cost and demand volume

Political processes and variation in renewable energy policies between U.S. states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, Michael

Over the past forty years federal efforts at renewable energy policy in the United States have been fragmented and are largely stalled. This is much different from U.S. states, which enact a diverse array of renewable energy policies. What factors explain this subnational variation? Addressing this question requires moving past the standard model of binary policy adoption that dominates studies of renewable energy policy. In its place I provide analyses of multifaceted policy outcomes, and also include predictors from a more inclusive view of politics than the standard economic and political interest factors. These additions to the standard energy policy model shed light not just on when states take policy action, but also on the content of the policies states ultimately adopt. In this dissertation I argue that different combinations of state-level political and economic characteristics influence policy adoption and policy content, a fact that is obscured by analysis of only binary policy action. I demonstrate this through three empirical projects that utilize an original longitudinal dataset and a variety of quantitative methods. The first project examines the diffusion of two varieties of a single regulatory policy instrument within a political context. I demonstrate that, contrary to most diffusion studies, policy adoption should be thought of as a multifaceted process, with separate factors determining the impetus for action and others shaping the content of the policy. My second project examines the role of economic, political, institutional, and cultural factors on a state's portfolio of policies. This work extends findings from prior literature on tax policies and incorporates institutional and cultural accounts of policy adoption into the study of renewable energy policy. I show that state economic and political factors, the predictors in traditional energy policy models, predict policy action but not policy content. Instead it is a state's cultural context, especially an affinity for neo-liberal ideology, which informs the content of the policy a state ultimately enacts. My final empirical project examines what state-level factors predict a state pledging to join a regional cap-and-trade program and how these factors differ for states that take meaningful action and actually enact such a program. I find that in more liberal states cap-and-trade programs can enter the political agenda, but that different political, economic, and ideological factors are associated with actually implementing such a program. In this dissertation I expand understanding of the politics of renewable energy policy by complicating the outcomes examined, and extend and expand prior findings from a variety of subfields within political sociology.

A new order splitting model with stochastic lead times for deterioration items

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazvar, Zeinab; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad Reza; Baboli, Armand

2014-09-01

In unreliable supply environments, the strategy of pooling lead time risks by splitting replenishment orders among multiple suppliers simultaneously is an attractive sourcing policy that has captured the attention of academic researchers and corporate managers alike. While various assumptions are considered in the models developed, researchers tend to overlook an important inventory category in order splitting models: deteriorating items. In this paper, we study an order splitting policy for a retailer that sells a deteriorating product. The inventory system is modelled as a continuous review system (s, Q) under stochastic lead time. Demand rate per unit time is assumed to be constant over an infinite planning horizon and shortages are backordered completely. We develop two inventory models. In the first model, it is assumed that all the requirements are supplied by only one source, whereas in the second, two suppliers are available. We use sensitivity analysis to determine the situations in which each sourcing policy is the most economic. We then study a real case from the European pharmaceutical industry to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed models. Finally, more promising directions are suggested for future research.

Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol

PubMed Central

Levy, David T; Jeon, Jihyoun; Clarke, John; Gilkeson, Scott; Hall, Tim; Holford, Theodore R; Meza, Rafael

2018-01-01

Introduction Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes. Methods and analysis We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke. Ethics and dissemination A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org. PMID:29574440

Testing two global models to prevent violence against women and children: methods and baseline data analysis of a seven-year prospective study.

PubMed

McFarlane, Judith; Nava, Angeles; Gilroy, Heidi; Paulson, Rene; Maddoux, John

2012-12-01

Worldwide, two models of care are offered most often to abused women-safe shelter and justice services. No evidence exists on the differential effectiveness of the models. To provide evidence for best practice and policy, 300 abused women, 150 first-time users of a shelter and 150 first time-applicants for a protection order, participated in a seven-year study. Safety, abuse, and the emotional and physical functioning of the women and their children were measured. The procedural logistics, sampling process, metrics, and baseline descriptors for these 300 women and 300 children is presented along with implications for practice and policy.

Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

2012-08-01

A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

Dependence of the firearm-related homicide rate on gun availability: a mathematical analysis.

PubMed

Wodarz, Dominik; Komarova, Natalia L

2013-01-01

In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data.

MMAB Tools

Science.gov Websites

Robert.Grumbine@noaa.gov. Last modified 2 July 2012. Return to NCEP Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Home Page Webmaster Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities Page last modified

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource to those technologies. It emphasizes the effects of those influences in the context of land

Key drivers for market penetration of biosimilars in Europe.

PubMed

Rémuzat, Cécile; Dorey, Julie; Cristeau, Olivier; Ionescu, Dan; Radière, Guerric; Toumi, Mondher

2017-01-01

Background & Objectives : Potential drivers and barriers of biosimilar uptake were mainly analysed through qualitative approaches. The study objective was to conduct a quantitative analysis and identify drivers of biosimilar uptake of all available biosimilars in the European Union (EU). Methods : A three-step process was established to identify key drivers for the uptake of biosimilars in the top 10 EU member states (MS) pharmaceutical markets (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK): (1) literature review to identify incentive policies in place to enhance biosimilars adoption; (2) assessment of biosimilar market dynamics based on database analysis; (3) regression model analysis on price using the following explicative variables: incentive policies; price difference between the biosimilar and the originator product; distribution channel; generic uptake and generic price cut; pharmaceutical expenditure per capita; and market competition. Results : At the study cut-off date, 20 biosimilars were available on the market. Incentive policies applied to biosimilars were found to be heterogeneous across countries, and uptakes of biosimilars were also very heterogeneous between different therapeutic classes and countries. Results from the model demonstrated that incentive policies and the date of first biosimilar market entry were correlated to biosimilar uptake. Pharmaceutical expenditure per capita and the highest generic uptake were inversely correlated with biosimilar uptake. Average generic price discount over originator and the number of biosimilars showed a trend toward statistical significance for correlation with biosimilar uptake, but did not reach the significance threshold. Biosimilar price discount over original biologic price, the number of analogues, and the distribution channel were not correlated with the biosimilar uptake. Conclusions : Understanding drivers of biosimilar uptake becomes a critical issue to inform policy decision-makers. This study showed that incentive policies to enhance uptake remain an important driver of biosimilar penetration, while biosimilar price discounts have no impact. Future research is warranted when the biosimilar market gains maturity.

Key drivers for market penetration of biosimilars in Europe

PubMed Central

Rémuzat, Cécile; Dorey, Julie; Cristeau, Olivier; Ionescu, Dan; Radière, Guerric; Toumi, Mondher

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background & Objectives: Potential drivers and barriers of biosimilar uptake were mainly analysed through qualitative approaches. The study objective was to conduct a quantitative analysis and identify drivers of biosimilar uptake of all available biosimilars in the European Union (EU). Methods: A three-step process was established to identify key drivers for the uptake of biosimilars in the top 10 EU member states (MS) pharmaceutical markets (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK): (1) literature review to identify incentive policies in place to enhance biosimilars adoption; (2) assessment of biosimilar market dynamics based on database analysis; (3) regression model analysis on price using the following explicative variables: incentive policies; price difference between the biosimilar and the originator product; distribution channel; generic uptake and generic price cut; pharmaceutical expenditure per capita; and market competition. Results: At the study cut-off date, 20 biosimilars were available on the market. Incentive policies applied to biosimilars were found to be heterogeneous across countries, and uptakes of biosimilars were also very heterogeneous between different therapeutic classes and countries. Results from the model demonstrated that incentive policies and the date of first biosimilar market entry were correlated to biosimilar uptake. Pharmaceutical expenditure per capita and the highest generic uptake were inversely correlated with biosimilar uptake. Average generic price discount over originator and the number of biosimilars showed a trend toward statistical significance for correlation with biosimilar uptake, but did not reach the significance threshold. Biosimilar price discount over original biologic price, the number of analogues, and the distribution channel were not correlated with the biosimilar uptake. Conclusions: Understanding drivers of biosimilar uptake becomes a critical issue to inform policy decision-makers. This study showed that incentive policies to enhance uptake remain an important driver of biosimilar penetration, while biosimilar price discounts have no impact. Future research is warranted when the biosimilar market gains maturity. PMID:28265349

Non-dimensionalised closed-form parametric analysis of semi-active vehicle suspensions using a quarter-car model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadian, Mehdi; Blanchard, Emmanuel

2011-02-01

This article provides a non-dimensionalised closed-form analysis of semi-active vehicle suspensions, using a quarter-car model. The derivation of the closed-form solutions for three indices that can be used for ride comfort, vehicle handling, and stability are presented based on non-dimensionalised suspension parameters. The behaviour of semi-active vehicle suspensions is evaluated using skyhook, groundhook, and hybrid control policies, and compared with passive suspensions. The relationship between vibration isolation, suspension deflection, and road holding is studied, using three performance indices based on the mean square of the sprung mass acceleration, rattle space, and tyre deflection, respectively. The results of the study indicate that the hybrid control policy yields significantly better comfort than a passive suspension, without reducing the road-holding quality or increasing the suspension displacement for typical passenger cars. The results also indicate that for typical passenger cars, the hybrid control policy results in a better compromise between comfort, road holding and suspension travel requirements than both the skyhook and groundhook control methods.

A Comparative Analysis of Tri-Service Accreditation Policies and Practices. Volume 1. Of the Accreditation Requirements Study Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-02-01

32 A-2 OTHER SURVIAC (Survivability & Vulnerability Information Analysis Center) Kevin Crosthwaite Dennis Detamore 33 J-MASS (Joint Modeling and...Crosthwaite DATE: 27 May 1993 Mr. Dennis Detamore ORGANIZATION: Booz-Allen Hamilton (SURVIAC) ORGANIZATIONAL RESPONSIBILITY: SURVIAC has the

Social determinants of health and health equity policy research: exploring the use, misuse, and nonuse of policy analysis theory.

PubMed

Embrett, Mark G; Randall, G E

2014-05-01

Despite a dramatic growth in SDH/HE (social determinants of health/health equity) public policy research and demonstrated government interest in promoting equity in health policies, health inequities are actually growing among some populations and there is little evidence that "healthy public policies" are being adopted and implemented. Moreover, these issues are typically failing to even reach governments' policy agendas, which is a critical step towards serious debate and the identification of policy options. This systematic review pursues three main objectives. First, is to identify barriers to SDH/HE issues reaching the government policy agenda. Second, to evaluate the characteristics of peer-reviewed research articles that utilize common policy analysis theories. And third, to determine the extent to which the SDH/HE literature utilizes common policy analysis theories. Our systematic review, conducted in June 2012, identified 6200 SDH/HE related articles in the peer-reviewed literature; however, only seven articles explicitly used a commonly recognized policy analysis theory to inform their analysis. Our analysis revealed that the SDH/HE policy literature appears to be focused on advocacy rather than analysis and that the use of policy analysis theory is extremely limited. Our results also suggest that when such theories are incorporated into an analysis they are often not comprehensively employed. We propose explanations for this non-use and misuse of policy analysis theory, and conclude that researchers may have greater influence in helping to get SDH/HE issues onto government policy agendas if they gain a greater understanding of the policy process and the value of incorporating policy analysis theories into their research. Using a policy analysis lens to help identify why healthy public policies are typically not being adopted is an important step towards moving beyond advocacy to understanding and addressing some of the political barriers to reforms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-20

biased for a variety of reasons, and neurological and physiological data can be corrupted by broken or improperly used sensors. If it were possible...War and Development Policy. Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press. Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A. (2004). " Greed and Grievances in

Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

2015-04-01

Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating to both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole influence local hydro-meteorological processes; statistically significant lag correlations have already been established. Simulation of the derived operating policies, which are benchmarked against standard policies conditioned on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, demonstrates the potential of the proposed approach. Future research will further develop the model for sensitivity analysis and regional studies examining the economic value of incorporating long range forecasts into reservoir operation.

Are black Americans entitled to equal health care? a new research paradigm.

PubMed

Menefee, L T

1996-01-01

This paper analyzes the health, economic and legal implications of most major health systems' reform initiatives in the 20th century and, briefly, the 19th century. The paper suggests that models of analysis grounded in science deter the development of claims for racial equality in health care. Because race is a legal construct, the paper suggests that the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause is an analytical framework that better accommodates the complexity of the health system, is at the heart of our national laws and ethos, and has political rhetorical power to further the political and policy debate. Major components of the health care system, including professional training, hospital construction, and health care financing, are analyzed for racially discriminatory purpose or impact and the extent of government participation. The paper gives particular attention to: the Flexner Report and the limited number of black physicians; the Hill-Burton program and the disproportionate assistance it gave to white controlled hospitals; and, efforts to expand health insurance coverage that also disproportionately favored the needs of the white community. Given the compounding effects of numerous policy decisions made over many years, there should not be any great wonder that such gross disparities in morbidity and mortality exist between black and white Americans. Further research and analysis of the policy decisions that have constructed the current health care system as well as framing those analyses as claims for racial fairness will better develop the policy debate than more narrowly focused analytical models from biomedical science or epidemiology. The law produced slavery and segregation, which usually determined where you lived, where you went, what work you could do, and what you learned. That legally constructed system significantly determined what you earned and what health you had. The biomedical models of analysis of our health system are too narrowly focused and temporally limited to identify the broad systemic barriers to equal health and health care. An analytical framework from law more easily accommodates the complex dynamics of our health care system. The equal protection clause of the 14th amendment has been used to analyze complex social and economic models, such as housing and education and has moved those systems to greater racial equality. The equal protection clause is at the heart of our national laws and ethos and, as a claim for fair treatment from government, has considerable rhetorical power. Menefee presents an analysis of major health policies dealing with training of physicians, construction of hospitals, and financing of personal health care. He suggests it demonstrates a health system rooted in racial discrimination and perpetuating racial discrimination in education, employment and housing. The history of successes using this analytical framework in other areas of social policy validates its consideration by health policy analysts for further research.

Sustainability and power in health promotion: community-based participatory research in a reproductive health policy case study in New Mexico.

PubMed

Mendes, Rosilda; Plaza, Veronica; Wallerstein, Nina

2016-03-01

Health promotion programs are commonly viewed as value-free initiatives which seek to improve health, often through behavior change. An opposing view has begun to emerge that health promotion efforts, especially ones seeking to impact health policy and social determinants of health, are vulnerable to political contexts and may depend on who is in power at the time. This community-based participatory research study attempts to understand these interactions by applying a conceptual model focused on the power context, diverse stakeholder roles within this context, and the relationship of political levers and other change strategies to the sustainability of health promotion interventions aimed at health policy change. We present a case study of a health promotion coalition, New Mexico for Responsible Sex Education (NMRSE), as an example of power dynamics and change processes. Formed in 2005 in response to federal policies mandating abstinence-only education, NMRSE includes community activists, health promotion staff from the New Mexico Department of Health, and policy-maker allies. Applying an adapted Mayer's 'power analysis' instrument, we conducted semi-structured stakeholder interviews and triangulated political-context analyses from the perspective of the stakeholders.We identified multiple understandings of sustainability and health promotion policy change, including: the importance of diverse stakeholders working together in coalition and social networks; their distinct positions of power within their political contexts; the role of science versus advocacy in change processes; the particular challenges for public sector health promotion professionals; and other facilitators versus barriers to action. One problem that emerged consisted of the challenges for state employees to engage in health promotion advocacy due to limitations imposed on their activities by state and federal policies. This investigation's results include a refined conceptual model, a power-analysis instrument, and new understandings of the intersection of power and stakeholder strategies in the sustainability of health promotion and health in all policies. © The Author(s) 2014.

Indonesian CPO availability analysis to support food and energy security: a system dynamic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, T.; Arkeman, Y.; Setyaningsih, D.; Saparita, R.

2017-05-01

The development of biofuels could be a solution to overcome the energy problem. One of biofuel that has the potential to be developed, namely palm oil biodiesel that is also the raw material for food. As a provider of CPO raw materials, the production of palm biodiesel could trigger competitions, from biofuels demand growth and utilization of agricultural resources. Thus, it needs to be analyzed to determine the adequency of CPO supply to fulfill the need of food and policy recomendation which sets the development of palm oil biodiesel can be synergies with food need especially for the supply of raw material CPO. To obtain the optimal policy in the synergy between the raw material of CPO for food and energy is a need to establish some policy scenarios that allow to be applied and then chosen the best policy alternative of all scenarios. The purpose of this research were to : 1) analysis the availability of CPO to meet the needs of food and energy, 2) provide policy recommendation with regard biodiesel development of food security. The model made used system dynamic method. Several scenarios that used in the model are: 1) existing condition, 2) The scenario increase biodiesel production capacity and increase land productivity, 3) reduction scenario CPO export by 30%, 4) scenario use othe raw material for biodiesel by 20%. The simulation results showed the availability of CPO raw materials would answer all needs of both food and biodiesel when there was an increase in productivity, diversification of raw materials, and also a reduction in palm oil exports. It was needed an integrated policy from upstream to downstream along with the consistency of implementation. Policy suggestions that could be considered were increased productivity through agricultural intensification, enforcement disincentive policies of CPO to exports, and development of non-CPO biodiesel raw materials and development of renewable energy.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Government Regulation and Enterprise Emission from the Perspective of Environmental Tax

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Yazong

2017-12-01

In the context of the upcoming implementation of the environmental tax policy, there is a need for a focus on the relationship between government regulation and corporate emissions. To achieve the real effect of environmental tax policy, government need to regulate the illegal emissions of enterprises. Based on the hypothesis of bounded rationality, this paper analyses the strategic set of government regulators and polluting enterprises in the implementation of environmental tax policy. By using the evolutionary game model, the utility function and payoff matrix of the both sides are constructed, and the evolutionary analysis and strategy adjustment of the environmental governance target and the actual profit of the stakeholders are carried out. Thus, the wrong behaviours could be corrected so that the equilibrium of the evolutionary system can be achieved gradually, which could also get the evolutionary stable strategies of the government and the polluting enterprises in the implementation of environmental tax policy.

The impact of IMF conditionality on government health expenditure: A cross-national analysis of 16 West African nations.

PubMed

Stubbs, Thomas; Kentikelenis, Alexander; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin; King, Lawrence

2017-02-01

How do International Monetary Fund (IMF) policy reforms-so-called 'conditionalities'-affect government health expenditures? We collected archival documents on IMF programmes from 1995 to 2014 to identify the pathways and impact of conditionality on government health spending in 16 West African countries. Based on a qualitative analysis of the data, we find that IMF policy reforms reduce fiscal space for investment in health, limit staff expansion of doctors and nurses, and lead to budget execution challenges in health systems. Further, we use cross-national fixed effects models to evaluate the relationship between IMF-mandated policy reforms and government health spending, adjusting for confounding economic and demographic factors and for selection bias. Each additional binding IMF policy reform reduces government health expenditure per capita by 0.248 percent (95% CI -0.435 to -0.060). Overall, our findings suggest that IMF conditionality impedes progress toward the attainment of universal health coverage. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy and environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loulou, Richard; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Zaccour, Georges

2005-07-01

This volume on energy and environmental modeling describes a broad variety of modeling methodologies. It includes chapters covering: The Sustainability of Economic Growth by Cabo, Martin-Herran & Martinez-Garcia; Abatement Scenarios in the Swiss Housing Sector by L. Drouet and others; Support and Planning for Off-Site Emergency Management, by Geldermann and others; Hybrid Energy-Economy Models, by Jaccard; The World-MARKAL Model and Its Application, by Kanudia and others; Methodology for Evaluating a Market of Tradable CO{sub 2}-Permits, by Kunsch and Springael; MERGE - A Model for Global Climate Change, by Manne and Richels; A Linear Programming Model for Capacity Expansion in anmore » Autonomous Power Generation System, by Mavrotas and Diakoulaki; Transport and Climate Policy Modeling in the Transport Sector, by Paltsev and others; Analysis of Ontario Electricity Capacity Requirements and Emissions, by Pineau and Schott; Environmental Damage in Energy/Environmental Policy Evaluation, by Van Regemorter. 71 figs.« less

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-06-01

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

Aircraft modifications: Assessing the current state of Air Force aircraft modifications and the implications for future military capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, Owen Jacob

How prepared is the U.S. Air Force to modify its aircraft fleet in upcoming years? Aircraft modernization is a complex interaction of new and legacy aircraft, organizational structure, and planning policy. This research will take one component of modernization: aircraft modification, and apply a new method of analysis in order to help formulate policy to promote modernization. Departing from previous small-sample studies dependent upon weight as a chief explanatory variable, this dissertation incorporates a comprehensive dataset that was constructed for this research of all aircraft modifications from 1996 through 2005. With over 700 modification programs, this dataset is used to examine changes to the current modification policy using policy-response regression models. These changes include separating a codependent procurement and installation schedule, reducing the documentation requirements for safety modifications, and budgeting for aging aircraft modifications. The research then concludes with predictive models for the F-15 and F-16 along with their replacements: the F-22 and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

An analysis of the impact of Renewable Portfolio Standards on residential electricity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Andrew James

A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has become a popular policy for states seeking to increase the amount of renewable energy generated for consumers of electricity. The success of these state programs has prompted debate about the viability of a national RPS. The impact that these state level policies have had on the price consumers pay for electricity is the subject of some debate. Several federal organizations have conducted studies of the impact that a national RPS would have on electricity prices paid by consumers. NREL and US EIA utilize models that analyze the inputs in electricity generation to examine the future price impact of changes to electricity generation and show marginal increases in prices paid by end users. Other empirical research has produced similar results, showing that the existence of an RPS increases the price of electricity. These studies miss important aspects of RPS policies that may change how we view these price increases from RPS policies. By examining the previous empirical research on RPS policies, this study seeks to identify the controls necessary to build an effective model. These controls are utilized in a fixed effects model that seeks to show how the controls and variables of interest impact electricity prices paid by residential consumers of electricity. This study utilizes a panel data set from 1990 to 2014 to analyze the impact of these policies controlling for generating capacity, the regulatory status of utilities in each state, demographic characteristics of the states, and fuel prices. The results of the regressions indicate that prices are likely to be higher in states that have an RPS compared to states that do not have such a policy. Several of the characteristics mentioned above have price impacts, and so discussing RPS policies in the context of other factors that contribute to electricity prices is essential. In particular, the regulatory status of utilities in each state is an important determinate of price as well as the amount of renewable energy generated in each state. There are several implications of this analysis that are relevant for policy makers who seek to gain the environmental benefits of these policies, but who are also concerned with the costs those polices may impose on consumers of electricity. First, allowing utilities as much time as possible to comply with the mandates of the RPS will mitigate the price increases associated with implementation of and compliance with the policy. Secondly, policy makers need not fear imposing high targets for their RPS as this is not associated with higher electricity prices. Finally, policy makers should be concerned with the bindingness of the policies they impose. States with non-binding policies tend to have higher electricity prices, likely due to the costs of early compliance. As such imposing interim targets may raise rates more than simply allowing compliance at a pace utilities can bear without substantially increasing prices.

Modeling the outcomes of nursing home care.

PubMed

Rohrer, J E; Hogan, A J

1987-01-01

In this exploratory analysis using data on 290 patients, we use regression analysis to model patient outcomes in two Veterans Administration nursing homes. We find resource use, as measured with minutes of nursing time, to be associated with outcomes when case mix is controlled. Our results suggest that, under case-based reimbursement systems, nursing homes could increase their revenues by withholding unskilled and psychosocial care and discouraging physicians' visits. Implications for nursing home policy are discussed.

From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

2015-01-01

At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

Understanding Policy Diffusion in the U.S.: An Information-Theoretical Approach to Unveil Connectivity Structures in Slowly Evolving Complex Systems.

PubMed

Anderson, Ross P; Jimenez, Geronimo; Bae, Jin Yung; Silver, Diana; Macinko, James; Porfiri, Maurizio

2016-01-01

Detecting and explaining the relationships among interacting components has long been a focal point of dynamical systems research. In this paper, we extend these types of data-driven analyses to the realm of public policy, whereby individual legislative entities interact to produce changes in their legal and political environments. We focus on the U.S. public health policy landscape, whose complexity determines our capacity as a society to effectively tackle pressing health issues. It has long been thought that some U.S. states innovate and enact new policies, while others mimic successful or competing states. However, the extent to which states learn from others, and the state characteristics that lead two states to influence one another, are not fully understood. Here, we propose a model-free, information-theoretical method to measure the existence and direction of influence of one state's policy or legal activity on others. Specifically, we tailor a popular notion of causality to handle the slow time-scale of policy adoption dynamics and unravel relationships among states from their recent law enactment histories. The method is validated using surrogate data generated from a new stochastic model of policy activity. Through the analysis of real data in alcohol, driving safety, and impaired driving policy, we provide evidence for the role of geography, political ideology, risk factors, and demographic and economic indicators on a state's tendency to learn from others when shaping its approach to public health regulation. Our method offers a new model-free approach to uncover interactions and establish cause-and-effect in slowly-evolving complex dynamical systems.

Understanding Policy Diffusion in the U.S.: An Information-Theoretical Approach to Unveil Connectivity Structures in Slowly Evolving Complex Systems

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ross P.; Jimenez, Geronimo; Bae, Jin Yung; Silver, Diana; Macinko, James; Porfiri, Maurizio

2017-01-01

Detecting and explaining the relationships among interacting components has long been a focal point of dynamical systems research. In this paper, we extend these types of data-driven analyses to the realm of public policy, whereby individual legislative entities interact to produce changes in their legal and political environments. We focus on the U.S. public health policy landscape, whose complexity determines our capacity as a society to effectively tackle pressing health issues. It has long been thought that some U.S. states innovate and enact new policies, while others mimic successful or competing states. However, the extent to which states learn from others, and the state characteristics that lead two states to influence one another, are not fully understood. Here, we propose a model-free, information-theoretical method to measure the existence and direction of influence of one state’s policy or legal activity on others. Specifically, we tailor a popular notion of causality to handle the slow time-scale of policy adoption dynamics and unravel relationships among states from their recent law enactment histories. The method is validated using surrogate data generated from a new stochastic model of policy activity. Through the analysis of real data in alcohol, driving safety, and impaired driving policy, we provide evidence for the role of geography, political ideology, risk factors, and demographic and economic indicators on a state’s tendency to learn from others when shaping its approach to public health regulation. Our method offers a new model-free approach to uncover interactions and establish cause-and-effect in slowly-evolving complex dynamical systems. PMID:29075163

Two-dimensional gap analysis: a tool for efficient conservation planning and biodiversity policy implementation.

PubMed

Angelstam, Per; Mikusiński, Grzegorz; Rönnbäck, Britt-Inger; Ostman, Anders; Lazdinis, Marius; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Arnberg, Wolter; Olsson, Jan

2003-12-01

The maintenance of biodiversity by securing representative and well-connected habitat networks in managed landscapes requires a wise combination of protection, management, and restoration of habitats at several scales. We suggest that the integration of natural and social sciences in the form of "Two-dimensional gap analysis" is an efficient tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies. The tool links biologically relevant "horizontal" ecological issues with "vertical" issues related to institutions and other societal issues. Using forest biodiversity as an example, we illustrate how one can combine ecological and institutional aspects of biodiversity conservation, thus facilitating environmentally sustainable regional development. In particular, we use regional gap analysis for identification of focal forest types, habitat modelling for ascertaining the functional connectivity of "green infrastructures", as tools for the horizontal gap analysis. For the vertical dimension we suggest how the social sciences can be used for assessing the success in the implementation of biodiversity policies in real landscapes by identifying institutional obstacles while implementing policies. We argue that this interdisciplinary approach could be applied in a whole range of other environments including other terrestrial biota and aquatic ecosystems where functional habitat connectivity, nonlinear response to habitat loss and a multitude of economic and social interests co-occur in the same landscape.

Conceptual Modeling for Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management in the Barycz Valley, Lower Silesia, Poland

PubMed Central

Magnuszewski, Piotr; Sendzimir, Jan; Kronenberg, Jakub

2005-01-01

The complexity of interactions in socio-ecological systems makes it very difficult to plan and implement policies successfully. Traditional environmental management and assessment techniques produce unsatisfactory results because they often ignore facets of system structure that underlie complexity: delays, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Assuming that causes are linked in a linear chain, they concentrate on technological developments (“hard path”) as the only solutions to environmental problems. Adaptive Management is recognized as a promising alternative approach directly addressing links between social and ecological systems and involving stakeholders in the analysis and decision process. This “soft path” requires special tools to facilitate collaboration between “experts” and stakeholders in analyzing complex situations and prioritizing policies and actions. We have applied conceptual modeling to increase communication, understanding and commitment in the project of seven NGOs “Sustainable Regional Development in the Odra Catchment”. The main goal was to help our NGO partners to facilitate their efforts related to developing sustainable policies and practices to respond to large-scale challenges (EU accession, global changes in climate and economy) to their natural, economic and socio-cultural heritages. Among the variety of sustainability issues explored by these NGOs, two (extensive agricultural practices and “green” local products) were examined by using Adaptive Management (AM) as a framework that would link analysis, discussion, research, actions and monitoring. Within the AM framework the project coordinators used tools of systems analysis (Mental Model Mapping) to facilitate discussions in which NGO professionals and local stakeholders could graphically diagram and study their understanding of what factors interacted and how they affect the region’s sustainability. These discussions produced larger-scale Regional Sustainability Models as well as more detailed sub-models of particular factors, processes, and feedback loops that appear critical to a sustainable future. The Regional Sustainability Model was used to identify a subset of key interacting factors (variables). For each variable, several sustainability indicators were suggested. The growing understanding and acceptance of the AM framework and systems analysis created a momentum both locally and within the region, which makes continued successful use of these indicators quite likely. In contrast to expert-driven projects that inject outside knowledge into a local context, this project established a broad basis for stakeholder-driven discussion that is articulated into goals, objectives, conceptual models, and indicators. The ability to learn and adapt in the AM framework increases the capacity to innovate and find policies and practices that enhance resilience and sustainability in a world in transition. PMID:16705818

No association of smoke-free ordinances with profits from bingo and charitable games in Massachusetts

PubMed Central

Glantz, S; Wilson-Loots, R

2003-01-01

Background: Because it is widely played, claims that smoking restrictions will adversely affect bingo games is used as an argument against these policies. We used publicly available data from Massachusetts to assess the impact of 100% smoke-free ordinances on profits from bingo and other gambling sponsored by charitable organisations between 1985 and 2001. Methods: We conducted two analyses: (1) a general linear model implementation of a time series analysis with net profits (adjusted to 2001 dollars) as the dependent variable, and community (as a fixed effect), year, lagged net profits, and the length of time the ordinance had been in force as the independent variables; (2) multiple linear regression of total state profits against time, lagged profits, and the percentage of the entire state population in communities that allow charitable gaming but prohibit smoking. Results: The general linear model analysis of data from individual communities showed that, while adjusted profits fell over time, this effect was not related to the presence of an ordinance. The analysis in terms of the fraction of the population living in communities with ordinances yielded the same result. Conclusion: Policymakers can implement smoke-free policies without concern that these policies will affect charitable gaming. PMID:14660778

Personal and political histories in the designing of health reform policy in Bolivia.

PubMed

Bernstein, Alissa

2017-03-01

While health policies are a major focus in disciplines such as public health and public policy, there is a dearth of work on the histories, social contexts, and personalities behind the development of these policies. This article takes an anthropological approach to the study of a health policy's origins, based on ethnographic research conducted in Bolivia between 2010 and 2012. Bolivia began a process of health care reform in 2006, following the election of Evo Morales Ayma, the country's first indigenous president, and leader of the Movement Toward Socialism (Movimiento al Socialism). Brought into power through the momentum of indigenous social movements, the MAS government platform addressed racism, colonialism, and human rights in a number of major reforms, with a focus on cultural identity and indigeneity. One of the MAS's projects was the design of a new national health policy in 2008 called The Family Community Intercultural Health Policy (Salud Familiar Comunitaria Intercultural). This policy aimed to address major health inequities through primary care in a country that is over 60% indigenous. Methods used were interviews with Bolivian policymakers and other stakeholders, participant observation at health policy conferences and in rural community health programs that served as models for aspects of the policy, and document analysis to identify core premises and ideological areas. I argue that health policies are historical both in their relationship to national contexts and events on a timeline, but also because of the ways they intertwine with participants' personal histories, theoretical frameworks, and reflections on national historical events. By studying the Bolivian policymaking process, and particularly those who helped design the policy, it is possible to understand how and why particular progressive ideas were able to translate into policy. More broadly, this work also suggests how a uniquely anthropological approach to the study of health policy can contribute to other disciplines that focus on policy analysis and policy processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three essays on decision-making in energy policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendling, Zachary Ann

This dissertation examines three issues surrounding decision-making in energy policy. Over the past decade, technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have allowed the economical extraction of natural gas and petroleum from shale basins. Thus far, natural gas has been produced from shale at a commercial scale only in certain American States and Canadian Provinces, though potential shale plays exist elsewhere in North America and the world. Whether, how, and to what extent SGD diffuses to new shale basins and jurisdictions will depend on several questions about energy policy. The first chapter examines the potential for SGD in the European Union. Among EU institutions, the European Parliament has been the strongest proponent for regulation of SGD, preferring a balance between environmental protection and opportunities for economic development, energy security, and climate mitigation. Analysis of roll call voting on SGD in the Seventh European Parliament shows that ideological preferences are the primary explanation of voting behavior, followed by national interests in decarbonization. Prospects for further regulatory action are discussed. ? The second chapter takes a closer look at the potential of shale gas to facilitate decarbonization in the electricity sector. Proponents of SGD have claimed that high carbon fossil fuels can be immediately phased out and replaced in the short term by power plants that burn cheap, abundant natural gas, which emits half the greenhouse gasses over a well-to-wire life cycle. A value of information analysis examines the conditions under which this may be so and quantifies how valuable it would be to have perfect information about uncertain parameters in a cost function characterizing the global electricity sector. The third chapter is describes a new tool of policy analysis, the Indiana Scalable Energy-Economy Model (IN-SEEM). State and local governments have played an increasing role in energy and climate policy in the United States and abroad, yet few models can capture the policy impacts at finer geographic scales. Having such tools is essential for local stakeholders as they contemplate energy options such as SGD. This chapter explains the development, performance, and usefulness of IN-SEEM in answering policy questions.

A qualitative exploration of the human resource policy implications of voluntary counselling and testing scale-up in Kenya: applying a model for policy analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Kenya experienced rapid scale up of HIV testing and counselling services in government health services from 2001. We set out to examine the human resource policy implications of scaling up HIV testing and counselling in Kenya and to analyse the resultant policy against a recognised theoretical framework of health policy reform (policy analysis triangle). Methods Qualitative methods were used to gain in-depth insights from policy makers who shaped scale up. This included 22 in-depth interviews with Voluntary Counselling and Testing (VCT) task force members, critical analysis of 53 sets of minutes and diary notes. We explore points of consensus and conflict amongst policymakers in Kenya and analyse this content to assess who favoured and resisted new policies, how scale up was achieved and the importance of the local context in which scale up occurred. Results The scale up of VCT in Kenya had a number of human resource policy implications resulting from the introduction of lay counsellors and their authorisation to conduct rapid HIV testing using newly introduced rapid testing technologies. Our findings indicate that three key groups of actors were critical: laboratory professionals, counselling associations and the Ministry of Health. Strategic alliances between donors, NGOs and these three key groups underpinned the process. The process of reaching consensus required compromise and time commitment but was critical to a unified nationwide approach. Policies around quality assurance were integral in ensuring standardisation of content and approach. Conclusion The introduction and scale up of new health service initiatives such as HIV voluntary counselling and testing necessitates changes to existing health systems and modification of entrenched interests around professional counselling and laboratory testing. Our methodological approach enabled exploration of complexities of scale up of HIV testing and counselling in Kenya. We argue that a better understanding of the diverse actors, the context and the process, is required to mitigate risks and maximise impact. PMID:22008721

Analysis of Carbon Policies for Electricity Networks with High Penetration of Green Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feijoo, Felipe A.

In recent decades, climate change has become one of the most crucial challenges for humanity. Climate change has a direct correlation with global warming, caused mainly by the green house gas emissions (GHG). The Environmental Protection Agency in the U.S. (EPA) attributes carbon dioxide to account for approximately 82% of the GHG emissions. Unfortunately, the energy sector is the main producer of carbon dioxide, with China and the U.S. as the highest emitters. Therefore, there is a strong (positive) correlation between energy production, global warming, and climate change. Stringent carbon emissions reduction targets have been established in order to reduce the impacts of GHG. Achieving these emissions reduction goals will require implementation of policies like as cap-and-trade and carbon taxes, together with transformation of the electricity grid into a smarter system with high green energy penetration. However, the consideration of policies solely in view of carbon emissions reduction may adversely impact other market outcomes such as electricity prices and consumption. In this dissertation, a two-layer mathematical-statistical framework is presented, that serves to develop carbon policies to reduce emissions level while minimizing the negative impacts on other market outcomes. The bottom layer of the two layer model comprises a bi-level optimization problem. The top layer comprises a statistical model and a Pareto analysis. Two related but different problems are studied under this methodology. The first problem looks into the design of cap-and-trade policies for deregulated electricity markets that satisfy the interest of different market constituents. Via the second problem, it is demonstrated how the framework can be used to obtain levels of carbon emissions reduction while minimizing the negative impact on electricity demand and maximizing green penetration from microgrids. In the aforementioned studies, forecasts for electricity prices and production cost are considered. This, this dissertation also presents anew forecast model that can be easily integrated in the two-layer framework. It is demonstrated in this dissertation that the proposed framework can be utilized by policy-makers, power companies, consumers, and market regulators in developing emissions policy decisions, bidding strategies, market regulations, and electricity dispatch strategies.

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-06-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forestmore » compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment.« less

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.

PubMed

Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

1990-01-01

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions.

Reflections on science and the governance of alcohol policy.

PubMed

Anderson, Peter; Gual, Antoni

2011-03-01

To consider, briefly, science's role in informing alcohol policy, and how science could help reframe the present governance of alcohol policy. Expression of the two project coordinators' reflections based on discussions during project meetings of the Alcohol Measures for Public Health Research Alliance (AMPHORA) project. Three endeavours are considered important for science's role in informing alcohol policy: modelling studies that help predict the outcomes of differing policy approaches; studying the impact of live policy changes as a powerful set of natural experiments; and, improved study of the impact of integrated, coordinated and joined up alcohol policies, as opposed to the impact of individual alcohol policy measures. Three areas where science can contribute to strengthened alcohol policy governance include: analysis of different governance architectures that might promote joined-up actions between different sectors; the design of better metrics that measure the impact of public and private sector actions on health; and, by identifying incentives that help consumers make choices on the use of alcohol that improve health. The impact of science on better alcohol policy governance can only happen if there is more and better dialogue between scientists and those who design alcohol policy. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating temperature-induced load but also by lessening water- and temperature-based performance constraints. Policy impacts are nuanced and region-specific, and this analysis underscores the importance of climate mitigation policy to regional electricity system planning decisions.

Info-gap management of public health Policy for TB with HIV-prevalence and epidemiological uncertainty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Formulation and evaluation of public health policy commonly employs science-based mathematical models. For instance, epidemiological dynamics of TB is dominated, in general, by flow between actively and latently infected populations. Thus modelling is central in planning public health intervention. However, models are highly uncertain because they are based on observations that are geographically and temporally distinct from the population to which they are applied. Aims We aim to demonstrate the advantages of info-gap theory, a non-probabilistic approach to severe uncertainty when worst cases cannot be reliably identified and probability distributions are unreliable or unavailable. Info-gap is applied here to mathematical modelling of epidemics and analysis of public health decision-making. Methods Applying info-gap robustness analysis to tuberculosis/HIV (TB/HIV) epidemics, we illustrate the critical role of incorporating uncertainty in formulating recommendations for interventions. Robustness is assessed as the magnitude of uncertainty that can be tolerated by a given intervention. We illustrate the methodology by exploring interventions that alter the rates of diagnosis, cure, relapse and HIV infection. Results We demonstrate several policy implications. Equivalence among alternative rates of diagnosis and relapse are identified. The impact of initial TB and HIV prevalence on the robustness to uncertainty is quantified. In some configurations, increased aggressiveness of intervention improves the predicted outcome but also reduces the robustness to uncertainty. Similarly, predicted outcomes may be better at larger target times, but may also be more vulnerable to model error. Conclusions The info-gap framework is useful for managing model uncertainty and is attractive when uncertainties on model parameters are extreme. When a public health model underlies guidelines, info-gap decision theory provides valuable insight into the confidence of achieving agreed-upon goals. PMID:23249291

Info-gap management of public health Policy for TB with HIV-prevalence and epidemiological uncertainty.

PubMed

Ben-Haim, Yakov; Dacso, Clifford C; Zetola, Nicola M

2012-12-19

Formulation and evaluation of public health policy commonly employs science-based mathematical models. For instance, epidemiological dynamics of TB is dominated, in general, by flow between actively and latently infected populations. Thus modelling is central in planning public health intervention. However, models are highly uncertain because they are based on observations that are geographically and temporally distinct from the population to which they are applied. We aim to demonstrate the advantages of info-gap theory, a non-probabilistic approach to severe uncertainty when worst cases cannot be reliably identified and probability distributions are unreliable or unavailable. Info-gap is applied here to mathematical modelling of epidemics and analysis of public health decision-making. Applying info-gap robustness analysis to tuberculosis/HIV (TB/HIV) epidemics, we illustrate the critical role of incorporating uncertainty in formulating recommendations for interventions. Robustness is assessed as the magnitude of uncertainty that can be tolerated by a given intervention. We illustrate the methodology by exploring interventions that alter the rates of diagnosis, cure, relapse and HIV infection. We demonstrate several policy implications. Equivalence among alternative rates of diagnosis and relapse are identified. The impact of initial TB and HIV prevalence on the robustness to uncertainty is quantified. In some configurations, increased aggressiveness of intervention improves the predicted outcome but also reduces the robustness to uncertainty. Similarly, predicted outcomes may be better at larger target times, but may also be more vulnerable to model error. The info-gap framework is useful for managing model uncertainty and is attractive when uncertainties on model parameters are extreme. When a public health model underlies guidelines, info-gap decision theory provides valuable insight into the confidence of achieving agreed-upon goals.

Qualitative and Political Issues Impacting Academic Medical Center Strategic Planning--A Methodological Approach. AIR Forum 1982 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kutina, Kenneth L.; And Others

A simulation model of an academic medical center that was developed to aid in strategic planning and policy analysis is described. The model, designated MCM for Medical Center Model, was implemented at the School of Medicine, University Hospitals of Cleveland, and the private practices of the faculty in the clinical departments at University…

The Science of Transportation Analysis and Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleibe, John

2010-03-01

Transportation Science focuses on methods developed to model and analyze the interaction between human behavior and transportation systems. From the human behavioral, or demand, perspective, we are interested in how person and households organize their activities across space and time, with travel viewed as an enabling activity. We have a particular interest in how to model the range of responses to public policy and transportation system changes, which leads to the consideration of both short- and long-term decision-making, interpersonal dependencies, and non-transportation-related opportunities and constraints, including household budgets, land use systems and economic systems. This has led to the development of complex structural econometric modeling systems as well as agent-based simulations. From the transportation systems, or supply, perspective we are interested in the level of service provide by transportation facilities, be it auto, transit or multi-modal systems. This has led to the development of network models and equilibrium concepts as well as hybrid simulation systems based on concepts borrowed from physics, such as fluid flow models, and cellular automata-type models. In this presentation, we review a representative sample of these methods and their use in transportation planning and public policy analysis.

Analysis of energy-saving potential in residential buildings in Xiamen City and its policy implications for southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Fei

The buildings sector is the largest energy-consuming sector in the world. Residential buildings consume about three-quarters of the final energy in the buildings sector. Promoting residential energy savings is in consequence critical for addressing many energy-use-related environmental challenges, such as climate change and air pollution. Given China's robust economic growth and fast urbanization, it is now a critical time to develop policy interventions on residential energy use in the nation. With this as a background, this dissertation explores effective policy intervention opportunities in southern China through analyzing the residential energy-saving potential, using the city of Xiamen as a case study. Four types of residential energy-saving potential are analyzed: technical potential, economic potential, maximum achievable potential (MAP), and possible achievable potential (PAP). Of these, the first two types are characterized as static theoretical evaluation, while the last two represent dynamic evaluation within a certain time horizon. The achievable potential analyses are rarely seen in existing literature. The analytical results reveal that there exists a significant technical potential for residential energy savings of about 20.9-24.9% in the city of Xiamen. Of the technical potential, about two-thirds to four-fifths are cost-effective from the government or society perspective. The cost-effectiveness is evaluated by comparing the "Levelized Cost of Conserved Energy (LCOCE)" of available advanced technical measures with the "Actual Cost" of conserved energy. The "Actual Cost" of energy is defined by adding the environmental externalities costs and hidden government subsidies over the retail prices of energy. The achievable potential analyses are particularly based on two key realistic factors: 1) the gradual ramping-up adoption process of advanced technical measures; and 2) individuals' adoption-decision making on them. For implementing the achievable potential analyses in Xiamen, a residential energy consumption (REC) projection model specifically tailored for southern China is developed. This computational model builds on the Kastovich (1982) adoption-decision theory and the general logic used in the U.S. EIA's (2003) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Base on this projection model, Xiamen's REC from the base year 2011 to 2020 is projected. This model can be used as a policy analysis tool to quantitatively evaluate the real-world impact of diverse policy incentives on residential energy use in southern China. The projection results show that the MAP of residential energy savings in Xiamen will be about only 8.3-8.4% in 2020 from a business-as-usual projection. Ten current appropriate and feasible policy interventions are evaluated for analyzing the PAP in Xiamen, which reveals that only about one-fourth to one-half of Xiamen's MAP will possibly be achieved in 2020. Based on the potential analysis for the Xiamen case, a discussion on promoting energy-saving incentive policies for the residential buildings in southern China is given. It suggests that more new, innovative and market-based policies need to be introduced in China in order to realize larger achievable potential for residential energy savings.

How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings?

PubMed

Houben, R M G J; Dowdy, D W; Vassall, A; Cohen, T; Nicol, M P; Granich, R M; Shea, J E; Eckhoff, P; Dye, C; Kimerling, M E; White, R G

2014-05-01

Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly.

Integrated Assessment of Health-related Economic Impacts of U.S. Air Pollution Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, R. K.; Rausch, S.; Selin, N. E.

2012-12-01

We examine the environmental impacts, health-related economic benefits, and distributional effects of new US regulations to reduce smog from power plants, namely: the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Using integrated assessment methods, linking atmospheric and economic models, we assess the magnitude of economy-wide effects and distributional consequences that are not captured by traditional regulatory impact assessment methods. We study the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, a modified allowance trading scheme that caps emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants in the eastern United States and thus reduces ozone and particulate matter pollution. We use results from the regulatory regional air quality model, CAMx (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions), and epidemiologic studies in BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program), to quantify differences in morbidities and mortalities due to this policy. To assess the economy-wide and distributional consequences of these health impacts, we apply a recently developed economic and policy model, the US Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Model (USREP), a multi-region, multi-sector, multi-household, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium economic model of the US that provides a detailed representation of the energy sector, and the ability to represent energy and environmental policies. We add to USREP a representation of air pollution impacts, including the estimation and valuation of health outcomes and their effects on health services, welfare, and factor markets. We find that the economic welfare benefits of the Rule are underestimated by traditional methods, which omit economy-wide impacts. We also quantify the distribution of benefits, which have varying effects across US regions, income groups, and pollutants, and we identify factors influencing this distribution, including the geographic variation of pollution and population as well as underlying economic conditions.

Pricing and inventory policies for Hi-tech products under replacement warranty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsao, Yu-Chung; Teng, Wei-Guang; Chen, Ruey-Shii; Chou, Wang-Ying

2014-06-01

Companies, especially in the Hi-tech (high-technology) industry (such as computer, communication and consumer electronic products), often provide a replacement warranty period for purchased items. In reality, simultaneously determining the price and inventory decisions under warranty policy is an important issue. The objective of this paper is to develop a joint pricing and inventory model for Hi-tech products under replacement warranty policy. In the first model, we consider a Hi-tech product feature in which the selling price is declining in a trend. We determine the optimal inventory level for each period and retail price for the first period while maximising the total profit. In the second model, we further determine the optimal retail price and inventory level for each period in the dynamic demand market. This study develops solution approaches to solve the problems described above. Numerical analysis discusses the influence of system parameters on the company's decisions and behaviours. The results of this study could serve as a reference for business managers or administrators.

Attitudes of pharmacists and physicians to antibiotic policies in hospitals.

PubMed

Adu, A; Simpson, J M; Armour, C L

1999-06-01

Antibiotic therapy in hospitals has substantial impact on patient outcome and the pharmacy drug budget. Antibiotic policies have been implemented by some hospitals to improve the quality of patient outcome and cost of antibiotic therapy. Antibiotic policies impose certain requirements on pharmacists and physicians. Pharmacists' and physicians' attitudes to and opinions about antibiotic policies are likely to affect the usefulness of such policies. To determine the attitudes of pharmacists and physicians to antibiotic policies in New South Wales (NSW) hospitals. Pharmacists and physicians in NSW public hospitals were surveyed to determine their attitudes to and opinions on antibiotic policies. A simple one-stage cluster sample of 241 pharmacists and a two-stage cluster sample of 701 physicians were obtained. Factor analysis was used to identify the attitudinal dimensions. General linear modelling was used to investigate the effects of predictor variables on outcome variables. The response rates were 91% and 77% for pharmacists and physicians, respectively. Factor analysis identified three dimensions of attitude to antibiotic policies: that they encourage rational antibiotic use; that they improve the quality of antibiotic prescribing and that they are associated with some problems. The reliability of these factors (Cronbach's alpha) ranged from 0.71 to 0.74, and was 0.90 for the overall attitude scale. Pharmacists and physicians had a positive overall attitude to antibiotic policies. Whereas physicians recognize that antibiotic policies improve the quality of prescribing, this was highly correlated with identification of problems (alpha = 0.71). In urban hospitals, pharmacists were more likely than physicians to associate antibiotics with problems. There was a positive overall attitude to hospital antibiotic policies expressed by pharmacists and physicians.

Science education policy for emergency, conflict, and post-conflict: An analysis of trends and implications for the science education program in Uganda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udongo, Betty Pacutho

This study analyzes the impact of armed conflicts on the development of education policy and particularly science education program in Uganda. Since independence from the British colonial rule, Uganda has experienced a series of armed conflicts, with the most devastating being the 21 years of conflict in Northern Uganda. The research study was guided by the following questions: (1) What is the level of government funding towards improving science education program in Uganda? (2) Have recent initiatives, such as free Primary and Secondary education, compulsory science, and 75% sponsorship for science-based courses, had a measurable impact on the proportion of students from the conflict-affected regions who enter tertiary institutions to pursue science and technology programs? (3) To what extent do the Ugandan Education Policy and, in particular, the Science Education Policy effectively address the educational needs of students affected by armed conflicts? The study employed a mixed method design where both quantitative and qualitative data were collected and analyzed. Quantitative data were obtained from a comprehensive search of policy documents and content analysis of literature on education policy, science education programs, and impact of conflicts on educational delivery. Qualitative data were obtained from surveys and interviews distributed to policy makers, central government and the local government officials, teachers, and students from the war-ravaged Northern Uganda. Analysis of policy documents and respondents' views revealed that Uganda does not have a science education policy, and the present education policy does not fully address the educational needs of students studying in conflict-affected regions. It was further observed that fewer students from the conflict-affected regions qualify for government scholarship to study science courses in higher institutions of learning. The study recommended the following policy interventions: (a) affirmative admission in higher institutions of learning, (b) curriculum reform, (c) professional development of teachers, (d) school security and safety, (e) science and technology education, and (f) increased funding for emergency education. The study proposes a model of "Schools as Islands of Peace and Hope" with science education as the tool for post-conflict economic recovery, as a blue print for emergency education policy framework.

Incorporating social network effects into cost-effectiveness analysis: a methodological contribution with application to obesity prevention

PubMed Central

Konchak, Chad; Prasad, Kislaya

2012-01-01

Objectives To develop a methodology for integrating social networks into traditional cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) studies. This will facilitate the economic evaluation of treatment policies in settings where health outcomes are subject to social influence. Design This is a simulation study based on a Markov model. The lifetime health histories of a cohort are simulated, and health outcomes compared, under alternative treatment policies. Transition probabilities depend on the health of others with whom there are shared social ties. Setting The methodology developed is shown to be applicable in any healthcare setting where social ties affect health outcomes. The example of obesity prevention is used for illustration under the assumption that weight changes are subject to social influence. Main outcome measures Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results When social influence increases, treatment policies become more cost effective (have lower ICERs). The policy of only treating individuals who span multiple networks can be more cost effective than the policy of treating everyone. This occurs when the network is more fragmented. Conclusions (1) When network effects are accounted for, they result in very different values of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). (2) Treatment policies can be devised to take network structure into account. The integration makes it feasible to conduct a cost-benefit evaluation of such policies. PMID:23117559

Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, R. B.

2010-12-01

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

Suboptimal and optimal order policies for fixed and varying replenishment interval with declining market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jonas C. P.; Wee, H. M.; Yang, P. C.; Wu, Simon

2016-06-01

One of the supply chain risks for hi-tech products is the result of rapid technological innovation; it results in a significant decline in the selling price and demand after the initial launch period. Hi-tech products include computers and communication consumer's products. From a practical standpoint, a more realistic replenishment policy is needed to consider the impact of risks; especially when some portions of shortages are lost. In this paper, suboptimal and optimal order policies with partial backordering are developed for a buyer when the component cost, the selling price, and the demand rate decline at a continuous rate. Two mathematical models are derived and discussed: one model has the suboptimal solution with the fixed replenishment interval and a simpler computational process; the other one has the optimal solution with the varying replenishment interval and a more complicated computational process. The second model results in more profit. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the two replenishment models. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the relationship between the parameters and the net profit.

An Economic Analysis of the Demand for Scientific Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berg, Sanford V.

1972-01-01

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that economic analysis can be useful in modeling the scientific journal market. Of particular interest is the efficiency of pricing and page policies. To calculate loses due to inefficiencies, demand parameters are statistically estimated and used in a discussion of market efficiency. (3 references)…

A new approach to formulating and appraising drug policy: A multi-criterion decision analysis applied to alcohol and cannabis regulation.

PubMed

Rogeberg, Ole; Bergsvik, Daniel; Phillips, Lawrence D; van Amsterdam, Jan; Eastwood, Niamh; Henderson, Graeme; Lynskey, Micheal; Measham, Fiona; Ponton, Rhys; Rolles, Steve; Schlag, Anne Katrin; Taylor, Polly; Nutt, David

2018-02-16

Drug policy, whether for legal or illegal substances, is a controversial field that encompasses many complex issues. Policies can have effects on a myriad of outcomes and stakeholders differ in the outcomes they consider and value, while relevant knowledge on policy effects is dispersed across multiple research disciplines making integrated judgements difficult. Experts on drug harms, addiction, criminology and drug policy were invited to a decision conference to develop a multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) model for appraising alternative regulatory regimes. Participants collectively defined regulatory regimes and identified outcome criteria reflecting ethical and normative concerns. For cannabis and alcohol separately, participants evaluated each regulatory regime on each criterion and weighted the criteria to provide summary scores for comparing different regimes. Four generic regulatory regimes were defined: absolute prohibition, decriminalisation, state control and free market. Participants also identified 27 relevant criteria which were organised into seven thematically related clusters. State control was the preferred regime for both alcohol and cannabis. The ranking of the regimes was robust to variations in the criterion-specific weights. The MCDA process allowed the participants to deconstruct complex drug policy issues into a set of simpler judgements that led to consensus about the results. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meaningful participation for children in the Dutch child protection system: A critical analysis of relevant provisions in policy documents.

PubMed

Bouma, Helen; López López, Mónica; Knorth, Erik J; Grietens, Hans

2018-05-01

Policymakers are increasingly focusing on the participation of children in the child protection system (CPS). However, research shows that actual practice still needs to be improved. Embedding children's participation in legislation and policy documents is one important prerequisite for achieving meaningful participation in child protection practice. In this study, the participation of children in the Dutch CPS under the new Youth Act 2015 is critically analyzed. National legislation and policy documents were studied using a model of "meaningful participation" based on article 12 of the UNCRC. Results show that the idea of children's participation is deeply embedded in the current Dutch CPS. However, Dutch policy documents do not fully cover the three dimensions of what is considered to be meaningful participation for children: informing, hearing, and involving. Furthermore, children's participation differs among the organizations included in the child protection chain. A clear overall policy concerning the participation of children in the Dutch CPS is lacking. The conclusions of this critical analysis of policy documents and the framework of meaningful participation presented may provide a basis for the embedding of meaningful participation for children in child protection systems of other countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

2014-05-01

Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under changing conditions. The plan commits to short term actions, and identifies signpost indicators and trigger values to assess if next actions of the identified policy pathways need to be implemented or if reassessment of the plan is needed. For example, river discharges could be measured to monitor changes in low discharges as a result of climate change, and assess whether policy options such as diverting more water the main fresh water lake (IJsselmeer) need to be implemented sooner or later or not at all. The adaptive plan of the Delta Programme will be presented in 2014. First lessons of this part of the Delta Programme can already be drawn: Both the complex and meta-model had its own purpose in each phase. The meta-model was particularly useful for identifying promising policy options and for consultation of stakeholders due to the instant response. The complex model had much more opportunities to assess impacts of regional policy actions, and was supported by regional stakeholders that recognized their areas better in this model. Different sector impact assessment modules are also included in the workflow of the complex model. However, the complex model has a long runtime (i.e. three days for 1 year simulation or more than 100 days for 35 year time series simulation), which makes it less suitable to support the dynamic policy process on instant demand and interactively.

Conjoint analysis: using a market-based research model for healthcare decision making.

PubMed

Mele, Nancy L

2008-01-01

Conjoint analysis is a market-based research model that has been used by businesses for more than 35 years to predict consumer preferences in product design and purchasing. Researchers in medicine, healthcare economics, and health policy have discovered the value of this methodology in determining treatment preferences, resource allocation, and willingness to pay. To describe the conjoint analysis methodology and explore value-added applications in nursing research. Conjoint analysis methodology is described, using examples from the healthcare and business literature, and personal experience with the method. Nurses are called upon to increase interdisciplinary research, provide an evidence base for nursing practice, create patient-centered treatments, and revise nursing education. Other disciplines have met challenges like these using conjoint analysis and discrete choice modeling.

Detailed assessment of global transport-energy models’ structures and projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Sonia; Mishra, Gouri Shankar; Fulton, Lew

This paper focuses on comparing the frameworks and projections from four major global transportation models with considerable transportation technology and behavioral detail. We analyze and compare the modeling frameworks, underlying data, assumptions, intermediate parameters, and projections to identify the sources of divergence or consistency, as well as key knowledge gaps. We find that there are significant differences in the base-year data and key parameters for future projections, especially for developing countries. These include passenger and freight activity, mode shares, vehicle ownership rates, and even energy consumption by mode, particularly for shipping, aviation and trucking. This may be due in partmore » to a lack of previous efforts to do such consistency-checking and “bench-marking.” We find that the four models differ in terms of the relative roles of various mitigation strategies to achieve a 2°C / 450 ppm CO2e target: the economics-based integrated assessment models favor the use of low carbon fuels as the primary mitigation option followed by efficiency improvements, whereas transport-only and expert-based models favor efficiency improvements of vehicles followed by mode shifts. We offer recommendations for future modeling improvements focusing on (1) reducing data gaps; (2) translating the findings from this study into relevant policy implications such as feasibility of current policy goals, additional policy targets needed, regional vs. global reductions, etc.; (3) modeling strata of demographic groups to improve understanding of vehicle ownership levels, travel behavior, and urban vs. rural considerations; and (4) conducting coordinated efforts in aligning input assumptions and historical data, policy analysis, and modeling insights.« less

Query Monitoring and Analysis for Database Privacy - A Security Automata Model Approach

PubMed Central

Kumar, Anand; Ligatti, Jay; Tu, Yi-Cheng

2015-01-01

Privacy and usage restriction issues are important when valuable data are exchanged or acquired by different organizations. Standard access control mechanisms either restrict or completely grant access to valuable data. On the other hand, data obfuscation limits the overall usability and may result in loss of total value. There are no standard policy enforcement mechanisms for data acquired through mutual and copyright agreements. In practice, many different types of policies can be enforced in protecting data privacy. Hence there is the need for an unified framework that encapsulates multiple suites of policies to protect the data. We present our vision of an architecture named security automata model (SAM) to enforce privacy-preserving policies and usage restrictions. SAM analyzes the input queries and their outputs to enforce various policies, liberating data owners from the burden of monitoring data access. SAM allows administrators to specify various policies and enforces them to monitor queries and control the data access. Our goal is to address the problems of data usage control and protection through privacy policies that can be defined, enforced, and integrated with the existing access control mechanisms using SAM. In this paper, we lay out the theoretical foundation of SAM, which is based on an automata named Mandatory Result Automata. We also discuss the major challenges of implementing SAM in a real-world database environment as well as ideas to meet such challenges. PMID:26997936

Query Monitoring and Analysis for Database Privacy - A Security Automata Model Approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Anand; Ligatti, Jay; Tu, Yi-Cheng

2015-11-01

Privacy and usage restriction issues are important when valuable data are exchanged or acquired by different organizations. Standard access control mechanisms either restrict or completely grant access to valuable data. On the other hand, data obfuscation limits the overall usability and may result in loss of total value. There are no standard policy enforcement mechanisms for data acquired through mutual and copyright agreements. In practice, many different types of policies can be enforced in protecting data privacy. Hence there is the need for an unified framework that encapsulates multiple suites of policies to protect the data. We present our vision of an architecture named security automata model (SAM) to enforce privacy-preserving policies and usage restrictions. SAM analyzes the input queries and their outputs to enforce various policies, liberating data owners from the burden of monitoring data access. SAM allows administrators to specify various policies and enforces them to monitor queries and control the data access. Our goal is to address the problems of data usage control and protection through privacy policies that can be defined, enforced, and integrated with the existing access control mechanisms using SAM. In this paper, we lay out the theoretical foundation of SAM, which is based on an automata named Mandatory Result Automata. We also discuss the major challenges of implementing SAM in a real-world database environment as well as ideas to meet such challenges.

IEEE 1982. Proceedings of the international conference on cybernetics and society

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-01-01

The following topics were dealt with: knowledge-based systems; risk analysis; man-machine interactions; human information processing; metaphor, analogy and problem-solving; manual control modelling; transportation systems; simulation; adaptive and learning systems; biocybernetics; cybernetics; mathematical programming; robotics; decision support systems; analysis, design and validation of models; computer vision; systems science; energy systems; environmental modelling and policy; pattern recognition; nuclear warfare; technological forecasting; artificial intelligence; the Turin shroud; optimisation; workloads. Abstracts of individual papers can be found under the relevant classification codes in this or future issues.

Analysis of Methane Mitigation Options using the MARKAL Model for the US: Calibration Data for Methane Emissions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This dataset contains the output for modeling runs that were performed to investigate the effectiveness of various technologies and lay the groundwork for the formulation of policies for reducing methane emissions. See the full report at http://www.epa.gov/methane/projections.html.

Explaining Relative Incomes of Low-Income Families in U.S. Cities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blackley, Paul R.

1988-01-01

Uses an interurban analysis model to assess the position of lower income families. Identifies factors determining the relative incomes of the poor through use of a supply and demand model of aggregate income inequality. Found high school graduation a significant factor in income inequality. Implications for policy are discussed. (KO)

Taiwanese Model of Teacher Preparation for Early Childhood Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Hua-Kuo

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is intended to present the current model of teacher preparation for early childhood education in Taiwan. Documentary analysis was employed in the study to collect and analyze the obtained data. The main features of teacher preparation policies for early childhood education in Taiwan could be summarized as: (1) The…

Delay correlation analysis and representation for vital complaint VHDL models

DOEpatents

Rich, Marvin J.; Misra, Ashutosh

2004-11-09

A method and system unbind a rise/fall tuple of a VHDL generic variable and create rise time and fall time generics of each generic variable that are independent of each other. Then, according to a predetermined correlation policy, the method and system collect delay values in a VHDL standard delay file, sort the delay values, remove duplicate delay values, group the delay values into correlation sets, and output an analysis file. The correlation policy may include collecting all generic variables in a VHDL standard delay file, selecting each generic variable, and performing reductions on the set of delay values associated with each selected generic variable.

Application of household production theory to selected natural-resource problems in less-developed countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mercer, D.E.

The objectives are threefold: (1) to perform an analytical survey of household production theory as it relates to natural-resource problems in less-developed countries, (2) to develop a household production model of fuelwood decision making, (3) to derive a theoretical framework for travel-cost demand studies of international nature tourism. The model of household fuelwood decision making provides a rich array of implications and predictions for empirical analysis. For example, it is shown that fuelwood and modern fuels may be either substitutes or complements depending on the interaction of the gross-substitution and income-expansion effects. Therefore, empirical analysis should precede adoption of anymore » inter-fuel substitution policies such as subsidizing kerosene. The fuelwood model also provides a framework for analyzing the conditions and factors determining entry and exit by households into the wood-burning subpopulation, a key for designing optimal household energy policies in the Third World. The international nature tourism travel cost model predicts that the demand for nature tourism is an aggregate of the demand for the individual activities undertaken during the trip.« less

Changes to the statin prescribing policy in Belgium: potential impact in clinical and economic terms.

PubMed

Liew, Danny; Webb, Kate; Marbaix, Sophie; Annemans, Lieven

2012-08-01

New policies in Belgium encourage prescribing of generic HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins), but may lead to non-equivalent switching of patients from more potent second generation statins, as has occurred elsewhere. We sought to assess the potential health economic impact of the new policies. This was a cost-effectiveness analysis. A Markov model was constructed to simulate the onset of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death among a representative cohort of 80 Belgian patients initially free of CVD and taking atorvastatin. Cardiovascular risks were estimated from calibrated Framingham equations, and utilities and costs from published data. Decision analysis assessed the potential impact of switching all 80 patients to simvastatin. Changes in lipid levels expected to arise from switching were based on a published meta-analysis. If the 80 patients remained on atorvastatin, the model predicted that 23 (29%) would develop CVD over 20 years. If they were switched to simvastatin, the predicted number was 25 (31%), equating to a 'number needed to harm' of 52. Switching would lead to a net cost saving of €131 (2012) per subject, but also a loss of 0.03 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per subject. These equated to a decremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €4777 per QALY lost. Sensitivity analyses indicated this result to be robust. Recently introduced statin prescribing policies in Belgium are likely, as intended, to reduce statin costs, but also increase the burden of CVD due to non-equivalent switching. It would be cost effective to maintain patients on atorvastatin for primary prevention rather than switch them to simvastatin.

Modeling cost-effectiveness and health gains of a "universal" versus "prioritized" hepatitis C virus treatment policy in a real-life cohort.

PubMed

Kondili, Loreta A; Romano, Federica; Rolli, Francesca Romana; Ruggeri, Matteo; Rosato, Stefano; Brunetto, Maurizia Rossana; Zignego, Anna Linda; Ciancio, Alessia; Di Leo, Alfredo; Raimondo, Giovanni; Ferrari, Carlo; Taliani, Gloria; Borgia, Guglielmo; Santantonio, Teresa Antonia; Blanc, Pierluigi; Gaeta, Giovanni Battista; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Chessa, Luchino; Erne, Elke Maria; Villa, Erica; Ieluzzi, Donatella; Russo, Francesco Paolo; Andreone, Pietro; Vinci, Maria; Coppola, Carmine; Chemello, Liliana; Madonia, Salvatore; Verucchi, Gabriella; Persico, Marcello; Zuin, Massimo; Puoti, Massimo; Alberti, Alfredo; Nardone, Gerardo; Massari, Marco; Montalto, Giuseppe; Foti, Giuseppe; Rumi, Maria Grazia; Quaranta, Maria Giovanna; Cicchetti, Americo; Craxì, Antonio; Vella, Stefano

2017-12-01

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two alternative direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment policies in a real-life cohort of hepatitis C virus-infected patients: policy 1, "universal," treat all patients, regardless of fibrosis stage; policy 2, treat only "prioritized" patients, delay treatment of the remaining patients until reaching stage F3. A liver disease progression Markov model, which used a lifetime horizon and health care system perspective, was applied to the PITER cohort (representative of Italian hepatitis C virus-infected patients in care). Specifically, 8,125 patients naive to DAA treatment, without clinical, sociodemographic, or insurance restrictions, were used to evaluate the policies' cost-effectiveness. The patients' age and fibrosis stage, assumed DAA treatment cost of €15,000/patient, and the Italian liver disease costs were used to evaluate quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of policy 1 versus policy 2. To generalize the results, a European scenario analysis was performed, resampling the study population, using the mean European country-specific health states costs and mean treatment cost of €30,000. For the Italian base-case analysis, the cost-effective ICER obtained using policy 1 was €8,775/QALY. ICERs remained cost-effective in 94%-97% of the 10,000 probabilistic simulations. For the European treatment scenario the ICER obtained using policy 1 was €19,541.75/QALY. ICER was sensitive to variations in DAA costs, in the utility value of patients in fibrosis stages F0-F3 post-sustained virological response, and in the transition probabilities from F0 to F3. The ICERs decrease with decreasing DAA prices, becoming cost-saving for the base price (€15,000) discounts of at least 75% applied in patients with F0-F2 fibrosis. Extending hepatitis C virus treatment to patients in any fibrosis stage improves health outcomes and is cost-effective; cost-effectiveness significantly increases when lowering treatment prices in early fibrosis stages. (Hepatology 2017;66:1814-1825). © 2017 The Authors. Hepatology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Analysis of spatial variations in the effectiveness of graduated driver's licensing (GDL) program in the state of Michigan.

PubMed

Chen, Yu; Berrocal, Veronica J; Bingham, C Raymond; Song, Peter X K

2014-04-01

Injury resulting from motor vehicle crashes is the leading cause of death among teenagers in the US. Few programs or policies have been found to be effective in reducing the risk of fatal car crashes for young novice drivers. One effective policy that has been widely implemented is Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL). Published articles have mostly reported on the temporal effectiveness of GDL in the US. This article reports on the development of spatial statistical modeling approaches to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of GDL policy across eighty-three counties in the state of Michigan. Data were gathered from several publicly available databases, including the US Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and US Department of Agriculture. To account for spatial dependence among crash counts from adjacent counties we invoke spatial random effects, which we provide with a Conditionally AutoRegressive (CAR) prior. Our analysis confirms previous findings that GDL in Michigan is an effective policy that significantly reduces the risk of fatal car crashes among novice teenage drivers. In addition, it indicates that rurality is an important contextual variable associated with spatial differences in GDL effectiveness across the state of Michigan. Finally, our findings provide information that can be used to strengthen GDL policy and its implementation to further enhance teenage-driver safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Narrative Policy Analysis and the Use of the Meta-Narrative in Participatory Policy Development within Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hampton, Greg

2011-01-01

Narrative policy analysis is examined for its contribution to participatory policy development within higher education. Within narrative policy analysis the meta-narrative is developed by the policy analyst in order to find a way to bridge opposing narratives. This development can be combined with participants deliberating in a policy process,…

Policy Analysis: A Tool for Setting District Computer Use Policy. Paper and Report Series No. 97.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Peter J.

This report explores the use of policy analysis as a tool for setting computer use policy in a school district by discussing the steps in the policy formation and implementation processes and outlining how policy analysis methods can contribute to the creation of effective policy. Factors related to the adoption and implementation of innovations…

Towards Integration of Ecosystem and Human Health: A Novel Conceptual Framework to Operationalise Ecological Public Health and to Incorporate Distal and Proximal Effects of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, S.; Fleming, L. E.; Beck, S.; Austen, M.; Morris, G.; White, M.; Taylor, T. J.; Orr, N.; Osborne, N. J.; Depledge, M.

2014-12-01

Conceptual models for problem framing in environmental (EIA) and health impact assessment (HIA) share similar concepts, but differ in their scientific or policy focus, methodologies and underlying causal chains, and the degree of complexity and scope. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework used by the European Environment Agency, the OECD and others and the Integrated Science for Society and the Environment (ISSE) frameworks are widely applied in policy appraisal and impact assessments. While DPSIR is applied across different policy domains, the ISSE framework is used in Ecosystem Services assessments. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) model extends DPSIR by separating exposure from effect, adding context as a modifier of effect, and susceptibility to exposures due to socio-economic, demographic or other determinants. While continuously evolving, the application of conceptual frameworks in policy appraisals mainly occurs within established discipline boundaries. However, drivers and environmental states, as well as policy measures and actions, affect both human and ecosystem receptors. Furthermore, unintended consequences of policy actions are seldom constrained within discipline or policy silos. Thus, an integrated conceptual model is needed, accounting for the full causal chain affecting human and ecosystem health in any assessment. We propose a novel model integrating HIA methods and ecosystem services in an attempt to operationalise the emerging concept of "Ecological Public Health." The conceptual approach of the ecosystem-enriched DPSEEA model ("eDPSEEA") has stimulated wide-spread debates and feedback. We will present eDPSEEA as a stakeholder engagement process and a conceptual model, using illustrative case studies of climate change as a starting point, not a complete solution, for the integration of human and ecosystem health impact assessment as a key challenge in a rapidly changing world. Rayner G and Lang T Ecological Public Health: Reshaping the Conditions for Good Health. Routledge Publishers; 2012.Reis S, Morris G, Fleming LE, Beck S, Taylor T, White M, Depledge MH, Steinle S, Sabel CE, Cowie H, Hurley F, Dick JMcP, Smith RI, Austen M (2013) Integrating Health & Environmental Impact Analysis. Public Health.

The Policy Dystopia Model: An Interpretive Analysis of Tobacco Industry Political Activity.

PubMed

Ulucanlar, Selda; Fooks, Gary J; Gilmore, Anna B

2016-09-01

Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA's social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity. We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of "discursive" (argument-based) and "instrumental" (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions. The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry's claims.

The Policy Dystopia Model: An Interpretive Analysis of Tobacco Industry Political Activity

PubMed Central

Ulucanlar, Selda; Fooks, Gary J.; Gilmore, Anna B.

2016-01-01

Background Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA’s social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity. Methods and Findings We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of “discursive” (argument-based) and “instrumental” (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions. Conclusions The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry’s claims. PMID:27649386

Policy design and performance of emissions trading markets: an adaptive agent-based analysis.

PubMed

Bing, Zhang; Qinqin, Yu; Jun, Bi

2010-08-01

Emissions trading is considered to be a cost-effective environmental economic instrument for pollution control. However, the pilot emissions trading programs in China have failed to bring remarkable success in the campaign for pollution control. The policy design of an emissions trading program is found to have a decisive impact on its performance. In this study, an artificial market for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions trading applying the agent-based model was constructed. The performance of the Jiangsu SO2 emissions trading market under different policy design scenario was also examined. Results show that the market efficiency of emissions trading is significantly affected by policy design and existing policies. China's coal-electricity price system is the principal factor influencing the performance of the SO2 emissions trading market. Transaction costs would also reduce market efficiency. In addition, current-level emissions discharge fee/tax and banking mechanisms do not distinctly affect policy performance. Thus, applying emissions trading in emission control in China should consider policy design and interaction with other existing policies.

Analysis of the Treatment of a Biological Weapon Spread through a Transportation Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

public. Most of the skepticism stems from religion, rare complications, and parent concerns over a refuted study suggesting vaccines can cause autism . In...Should this occur, the current Center for Disease Control policy is to trace sources of infections and vaccinate people suspected of harboring the...disease. Kaplan et al., as well as others, have argued for mass vaccination rather than the trace policy. Kaplan et al.’s model is extended to consider

A Qualitative Assessment of the Evidence Utilization for Health Policy-Making on the Basis of SUPPORT Tools in a Developing Country

PubMed Central

Hasan Imani-Nasab, Mohammad; Seyedin, Hesam; Yazdizadeh, Bahareh; Majdzadeh, Reza

2017-01-01

Background: SUPPORT tools consist of 18 articles addressing the health policy-makers so that they can learn how to make evidence-informed health policies. These tools have been particularly recommended for developing countries. The present study tries to explain the process of evidence utilization for developing policy documents in the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MoHME) and to compare the findings with those of SUPPORT tools. Methods: A qualitative research was conducted, using the framework analysis approach. Participants consisted of senior managers and technicians in MoHME. Purposeful sampling was done, with a maximum variety, for the selection of research participants: individuals having at least 5 years of experience in preparing evidence-based policy documents. Face-to-face interviews were conducted for data collection. As a guideline for the interviews, ‘the Utilization of Evidence in Policy-Making Organizations’ procedure was used. The data were analyzed through the analysis of the framework method using MAXQDA 10 software. Results: The participants acquired the research evidence in a topic-based form, and they were less likely to search on the basis of the evidence pyramid. To assess the quality of evidence, they did not use standard critical tools; to adapt the evidence and interventions with the local setting, they did not use the ideas and experiences of all stakeholders, and in preparing the evidence-based policy documents, they did not take into consideration the window of opportunity, did not refrain from using highly technical terms, did not write user-friendly summaries, and did not present alternative policy options. In order to develop health policies, however, they used the following innovations: attention to the financial burden of policy issues on the agenda, sensitivity analysis of the preferred policy option on the basis of technical, sociopolitical, and economic feasibility, advocacy from other scholars, using the multi-criteria decision-making models for the prioritization of policy options, implementation of policy based on the degree of readiness of policy-implementing units, and the classification of policy documents on the basis of different conditions of policy-making (urgent, short-term, and long-term). Conclusion: Findings showed that the process of evidence utilization in IR-MoH enjoys some innovations for the support of health policy development. The present study provides IR-MoH with considerable opportunities for the improvement of evidence-informed health policy-making. Moreover, the SUPPORT process and tools are recommended to be used in developing countries. PMID:28812845

A fuzzy logic approach toward solving the analytic enigma of health system financing.

PubMed

Chernichovsky, Dov; Bolotin, Arkady; de Leeuw, David

2003-09-01

Improved health, equity, macroeconomic efficiency, efficient provision of care, and client satisfaction are the common goals of any health system. The relative significance of these goals varies, however, across nations, communities and with time. As for health care finance, the attainment of these goals under varying circumstances involves alternative policy options for each of the following elements: sources of finance, allocation of finance, payment to providers, and public-private mix. The intricate set of multiple goals, elements and policy options defies human reasoning, and, hence, hinders effective policymaking. Indeed, "health system finance" is not amenable to a clear set of structural relationships. Neither is there a universe that can be subject to statistical scrutiny: each health system is unique. "Fuzzy logic" models human reasoning by managing "expert knowledge" close to the way it is handled by human language. It is used here for guiding policy making by a systematic analysis of health system finance. Assuming equal welfare weights for alternative goals and mutually exclusive policy options under each health-financing element, the exploratory model we present here suggests that a German-type health system is best. Other solutions depend on the welfare weights for system goals and mixes of policy options.

Why don't people buy long-term-care insurance?

PubMed

Cramer, Anne Theisen; Jensen, Gail A

2006-07-01

The objective of this article was to assess the determinants of an individual's decision to purchase long-term-care (LTC) insurance. This article focuses on the decision to purchase a new policy as opposed to renewing an existing policy. This study gave special consideration to the role of policy price, the savings associated with buying a policy now as opposed to later, the purchaser's education, and the purchaser's income. Using data from the 2002 Health and Retirement Survey, we estimated logistic regressions to model consumer decisions to purchase LTC insurance. We explored several alternative measures of the price of a policy. Price was a significant determinant in decisions to purchase coverage. The demand for coverage, however, was price inelastic, with elasticities ranging from -0.23 to -0.87, depending on the specification of the model. The education level and income of the purchaser were also important. This analysis provides the first estimates of price elasticity of demand for LTC insurance. The finding that demand is very price inelastic suggests that state initiatives that effectively subsidize premiums as a way of stimulating purchases are likely to meet with very limited success in the present environment.

Toward Reproducible Computational Research: An Empirical Analysis of Data and Code Policy Adoption by Journals.

PubMed

Stodden, Victoria; Guo, Peixuan; Ma, Zhaokun

2013-01-01

Journal policy on research data and code availability is an important part of the ongoing shift toward publishing reproducible computational science. This article extends the literature by studying journal data sharing policies by year (for both 2011 and 2012) for a referent set of 170 journals. We make a further contribution by evaluating code sharing policies, supplemental materials policies, and open access status for these 170 journals for each of 2011 and 2012. We build a predictive model of open data and code policy adoption as a function of impact factor and publisher and find higher impact journals more likely to have open data and code policies and scientific societies more likely to have open data and code policies than commercial publishers. We also find open data policies tend to lead open code policies, and we find no relationship between open data and code policies and either supplemental material policies or open access journal status. Of the journals in this study, 38% had a data policy, 22% had a code policy, and 66% had a supplemental materials policy as of June 2012. This reflects a striking one year increase of 16% in the number of data policies, a 30% increase in code policies, and a 7% increase in the number of supplemental materials policies. We introduce a new dataset to the community that categorizes data and code sharing, supplemental materials, and open access policies in 2011 and 2012 for these 170 journals.

Toward Reproducible Computational Research: An Empirical Analysis of Data and Code Policy Adoption by Journals

PubMed Central

Stodden, Victoria; Guo, Peixuan; Ma, Zhaokun

2013-01-01

Journal policy on research data and code availability is an important part of the ongoing shift toward publishing reproducible computational science. This article extends the literature by studying journal data sharing policies by year (for both 2011 and 2012) for a referent set of 170 journals. We make a further contribution by evaluating code sharing policies, supplemental materials policies, and open access status for these 170 journals for each of 2011 and 2012. We build a predictive model of open data and code policy adoption as a function of impact factor and publisher and find higher impact journals more likely to have open data and code policies and scientific societies more likely to have open data and code policies than commercial publishers. We also find open data policies tend to lead open code policies, and we find no relationship between open data and code policies and either supplemental material policies or open access journal status. Of the journals in this study, 38% had a data policy, 22% had a code policy, and 66% had a supplemental materials policy as of June 2012. This reflects a striking one year increase of 16% in the number of data policies, a 30% increase in code policies, and a 7% increase in the number of supplemental materials policies. We introduce a new dataset to the community that categorizes data and code sharing, supplemental materials, and open access policies in 2011 and 2012 for these 170 journals. PMID:23805293

Cardiovascular disease and impoverishment averted due to a salt reduction policy in South Africa: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Watkins, David A; Olson, Zachary D; Verguet, Stéphane; Nugent, Rachel A; Jamison, Dean T

2016-02-01

The South African Government recently set targets to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) by lowering salt consumption. We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to model the potential health and economic impacts of this salt policy. We used surveys and epidemiologic studies to estimate reductions in CVD resulting from lower salt intake. We calculated the average out-of-pocket (OOP) cost of CVD care, using facility fee schedules and drug prices. We estimated the reduction in OOP expenditures and government subsidies due to the policy. We estimated public and private sector costs of policy implementation. We estimated financial risk protection (FRP) from the policy as (1) cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) averted or (2) cases of poverty averted. We also performed a sensitivity analysis. We found that the salt policy could reduce CVD deaths by 11%, with similar health gains across income quintiles. The policy could save households US$ 4.06 million (2012) in OOP expenditures (US$ 0.29 per capita) and save the government US$ 51.25 million in healthcare subsidies (US$ 2.52 per capita) each year. The cost to the government would be only US$ 0.01 per capita; hence, the policy would be cost saving. If the private sector food reformulation costs were passed on to consumers, food expenditures would increase by <0.2% across all income quintiles. Preventing CVD could avert 2400 cases of CHE or 2000 cases of poverty yearly. Our results were sensitive to baseline CVD mortality rates and the cost of treatment. We conclude that, in addition to health gains, population salt reduction can have positive economic impacts-substantially reducing OOP expenditures and providing FRP, particularly for the middle class. The policy could also provide large government savings on health care. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Models of initial training and pathways to registration: a selective review of policy in professional regulation.

PubMed

Fealy, Gerard M; Carney, Marie; Drennan, Jonathan; Treacy, Margaret; Burke, Jacqueline; O'Connell, Dympna; Howley, Breeda; Clancy, Alison; McHugh, Aine; Patton, Declan; Sheerin, Fintan

2009-09-01

To provide a synthesis of literature on international policy concerning professional regulation in nursing and midwifery, with reference to routes of entry into training and pathways to licensure. Internationally, there is evidence of multiple points of entry into initial training, multiple divisions of the professional register and multiple pathways to licensure. Policy documents and commentary articles concerned with models of initial training and pathways to licensure were reviewed. Item selection, quality appraisal and data extraction were undertaken and documentary analysis was performed on all retrieved texts. Case studies of five Western countries indicate no single uniform system of routes of entry into initial training and no overall consensus regarding the optimal model of initial training. Multiple regulatory systems, with multiple routes of entry into initial training and multiple pathways to licensure pose challenges, in terms of achieving commonly-agreed understandings of practice competence. The variety of models of initial training present nursing managers with challenges in the recruitment and deployment of personnel trained in many different jurisdictions. Nursing managers need to consider the potential for considerable variation in competency repertoires among nurses trained in generic and specialist initial training models.

The role of the Sheffield model on the minimum unit pricing of alcohol debate: the importance of a rhetorical perspective.

PubMed

Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Hilton, Shona; Bond, Lyndal

2016-11-01

The minimum unit pricing (MUP) alcohol policy debate has been informed by the Sheffield model, a study which predicts impacts of different alcohol pricing policies. This paper explores the Sheffield model's influences on the policy debate by drawing on 36 semi-structured interviews with policy actors who were involved in the policy debate. Although commissioned by policy makers, the model's influence has been far broader than suggested by views of 'rational' policy making. While findings from the Sheffield model have been used in instrumental ways, they have arguably been more important in helping debate competing values underpinning policy goals.

41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Analysis. 105-53.141 Section 105-53.141 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property... FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by the Associate Administrator for Policy Analysis, is responsible for providing analytical support...

Rhetorical Analysis in Critical Policy Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winton, Sue

2013-01-01

Rhetorical analysis, an approach to critical discourse analysis, is presented as a useful method for critical policy analysis and its effort to understand the role policies play in perpetuating inequality. A rhetorical analysis of Character "Matters!", the character education policy of a school board in Ontario, Canada, provides an…

41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Analysis. 105-53.141 Section 105-53.141 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property... FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by the Associate Administrator for Policy Analysis, is responsible for providing analytical support...

41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Analysis. 105-53.141 Section 105-53.141 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property... FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by the Associate Administrator for Policy Analysis, is responsible for providing analytical support...

41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Analysis. 105-53.141 Section 105-53.141 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property... FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by the Associate Administrator for Policy Analysis, is responsible for providing analytical support...

41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Analysis. 105-53.141 Section 105-53.141 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property... FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by the Associate Administrator for Policy Analysis, is responsible for providing analytical support...

A paradigm analysis of ecological sustainability: The emerging polycentric climate change publics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taminiau, Job B.

Climate change poses significant complications to the development model employed by modern societies. Using paradigm analysis, the dissertation explains why, after 21 years, policy failure haunts the field: a key impediment is the unquestioned assumption that policy must adhere to an economic optimality principle. This results in policy models which fail to uphold sustainability, justice, and equality due to an emphasis on economic growth, technology, and technical and bureaucratic expertise. Unable to build consensus among low- and high-carbon economies, and searching for what one economist has called an oxymoron -- "sustainable growth" (Daly, 1997) -- the policy process has foundered with its only international convention (the Kyoto Protocol) having lost relevance. In the midst of this policy failure, the dissertation offers and defends the premise that alternative strategies have emerged which signal the prospect of a paradigm shift to ecological sustainability -- a paradigm in which social change takes places through commons-based management and community authorship in the form of network governance and where sustainability serves as governor of growth -- something unavailable in an optimality-guided world. Especially, a strategy of polycentricity is discussed in detail in order to elucidate the potential for a paradigm shift. This discussion is followed by an evaluation of two innovative concepts -- the Sustainable Energy Utility and the Solar City -- that might fit the polycentricity strategy and bring forth transformative change. The dissertation finds considerable potential rests in these two concepts and argues the critical importance of further development of innovative approaches to implement the ecological sustainability paradigm.

Walking the Fine Line: Political Decision Making with or without Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkel-Keller, Claudia

The stages of the policy process are examined and explained in terms of the decision making framework. The policy process is comprised of four stages; policy analysis, policy formation, policy decision, and political analysis. Political analysis is the performance of the market analysis needed for a decision. The political weight, rather than the…

Models of Educational Attainment: A Theoretical and Methodological Critique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrne, D. S.; And Others

1973-01-01

Uses cluster analysis techniques to show that egalitarian policies in secondary education coupled with high financial inputs have measurable payoffs in higher attainment rates, based on Max Weber's notion of power'' within a community. (Author/JM)

Virtual Institute of Microbial Stress and Survival: Deduction of Stress Response Pathways in Metal and Radionuclide Reducing Microorganisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2004-04-17

The projects application goals are to: (1) To understand bacterial stress-response to the unique stressors in metal/radionuclide contamination sites; (2) To turn this understanding into a quantitative, data-driven model for exploring policies for natural and biostimulatory bioremediation; (3) To implement proposed policies in the field and compare results to model predictions; and (4) Close the experimental/computation cycle by using discrepancies between models and predictions to drive new measurements and construction of new models. The projects science goals are to: (1) Compare physiological and molecular response of three target microorganisms to environmental perturbation; (2) Deduce the underlying regulatory pathways that controlmore » these responses through analysis of phenotype, functional genomic, and molecular interaction data; (3) Use differences in the cellular responses among the target organisms to understand niche specific adaptations of the stress and metal reduction pathways; (4) From this analysis derive an understanding of the mechanisms of pathway evolution in the environment; and (5) Ultimately, derive dynamical models for the control of these pathways to predict how natural stimulation can optimize growth and metal reduction efficiency at field sites.« less

Public attention to science and political news and support for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, P. Sol; Nisbet, Erik C.; Myers, Teresa A.

2015-06-01

We examine how attention to science and political news may influence public knowledge, perceived harm, and support for climate mitigation policies. Previous research examining these relationships has not fully accounted for how political ideology shapes the mental processes through which the public interprets media discourses about climate change. We incorporate political ideology and the concept of motivated cognition into our analysis to compare and contrast two prominent models of opinion formation, the scientific literacy model, which posits that disseminating scientific information will move public opinion towards the scientific consensus, and the motivated reasoning model, which posits that individuals will interpret information in a biased manner. Our analysis finds support for both models of opinion formation with key differences across ideological groups. Attention to science news was associated with greater perceptions of harm and knowledge for conservatives, but only additional knowledge for liberals. Supporting the literacy model, greater knowledge was associated with more support for climate mitigation for liberals. In contrast, consistent with motivated reasoning, more knowledgeable conservatives were less supportive of mitigation policy. In addition, attention to political news had a negative association with perceived harm for conservatives but not for liberals.

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin

PubMed Central

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency’s model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes. PMID:29162976

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin.

PubMed

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency's model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes.

Cost-effectiveness of MODY genetic testing: translating genomic advances into practical health applications.

PubMed

Naylor, Rochelle N; John, Priya M; Winn, Aaron N; Carmody, David; Greeley, Siri Atma W; Philipson, Louis H; Bell, Graeme I; Huang, Elbert S

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a genetic testing policy for HNF1A-, HNF4A-, and GCK-MODY in a hypothetical cohort of type 2 diabetic patients 25-40 years old with a MODY prevalence of 2%. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used a simulation model of type 2 diabetes complications based on UK Prospective Diabetes Study data, modified to account for the natural history of disease by genetic subtype to compare a policy of genetic testing at diabetes diagnosis versus a policy of no testing. Under the screening policy, successful sulfonylurea treatment of HNF1A-MODY and HNF4A-MODY was modeled to produce a glycosylated hemoglobin reduction of -1.5% compared with usual care. GCK-MODY received no therapy. Main outcome measures were costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on lifetime risk of complications and treatments, expressed as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (USD/QALY). RESULTS The testing policy yielded an average gain of 0.012 QALYs and resulted in an ICER of 205,000 USD. Sensitivity analysis showed that if the MODY prevalence was 6%, the ICER would be ~50,000 USD. If MODY prevalence was >30%, the testing policy was cost saving. Reducing genetic testing costs to 700 USD also resulted in an ICER of ~50,000 USD. CONCLUSIONS Our simulated model suggests that a policy of testing for MODY in selected populations is cost-effective for the U.S. based on contemporary ICER thresholds. Higher prevalence of MODY in the tested population or decreased testing costs would enhance cost-effectiveness. Our results make a compelling argument for routine coverage of genetic testing in patients with high clinical suspicion of MODY.

Projected Impact of a Sodium Consumption Reduction Initiative in Argentina: An Analysis from the CVD Policy Model – Argentina

PubMed Central

Konfino, Jonatan; Mekonnen, Tekeshe A.; Coxson, Pamela G.; Ferrante, Daniel; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in adults in Argentina. Sodium reduction policies targeting processed foods were implemented in 2011 in Argentina, but the impact has not been evaluated. The aims of this study are to use Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion and project the impact of Argentina’s sodium reduction policies under two scenarios - the 2-year intervention currently being undertaken or a more persistent 10 year sodium reduction strategy. Methods We used Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion by sex and projected the impact of the current strategy on sodium consumption and blood pressure decrease. We assessed the projected impact of sodium reduction policies on CVD using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, adapted to Argentina, modeling two alternative policy scenarios over the next decade. Results Our study finds that the initiative to reduce sodium consumption currently in place in Argentina will have substantial impact on CVD over the next 10 years. Under the current proposed policy of 2-year sodium reduction, the mean sodium consumption is projected to decrease by 319–387 mg/day. This decrease is expected to translate into an absolute reduction of systolic blood pressure from 0.93 mmHg to 1.81 mmHg. This would avert about 19,000 all-cause mortality, 13,000 total myocardial infarctions, and 10,000 total strokes over the next decade. A more persistent sodium reduction strategy would yield even greater CVD benefits. Conclusion The impact of the Argentinean initiative would be effective in substantially reducing mortality and morbidity from CVD. This paper provides evidence-based support to continue implementing strategies to reduce sodium consumption at a population level. PMID:24040085

Managing dual warehouses with an incentive policy for deteriorating items

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jonas C. P.; Wang, Kung-Jeng; Lin, Yu-Siang

2016-02-01

Distributors in a supply chain usually limit their own warehouse in finite capacity for cost reduction and excess stock is held in a rent warehouse. In this study, we examine inventory control for deteriorating items in a two-warehouse setting. Assuming that there is an incentive offered by a rent warehouse that allows the rental fee to decrease over time, the objective of this study is to maximise the joint profit of the manufacturer and the distributor. An optimisation procedure is developed to derive the optimal joint economic lot size policy. Several criteria are identified to select the most appropriate warehouse configuration and inventory policy on the basis of storage duration of materials in a rent warehouse. Sensitivity analysis is done to examine the results of model robustness. The proposed model enables a manufacturer with a channel distributor to coordinate the use of alternative warehouses, and to maximise the joint profit of the manufacturer and the distributor.

A predictive analysis of CO2 emissions, environmental policy stringency, and economic growth in China.

PubMed

Ahmed, Khalid; Ahmed, Sidrah

2018-03-28

This study takes environmental policy stringency and economic activity as the controlling variables and forecasts the CO 2 emissions in China up to 2022. In doing so, an application of corrected grey model with convolution is used over the annual time series data between 1990 and 2012. The simulation results show that (1) between 2012 and 2022, CO 2 emissions in China is expected to increase at an average rate of 17.46% annually, raising the emissions intensity from 7.04 in 2012 to 25.461 metric tons per capita by 2022; (2) stringent environmental policies reduce CO 2 emissions-whereas, GDP tends to increase the emissions intensity in China; (3) stringent environmental policies are found to have a negative impact on GDP in China. Based on the empirical findings, the study also provides some policy suggestions to reduce emissions intensity in China.

A marketing approach to carpool demand analysis. Technical memorandum III. Tradeoff model and policy simulation. Conservation paper. [Commuter survey in 3 major urban areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1976-07-01

The memorandum discusses the theoretical basis of the trade-off model and its adaptation particularly in the simulation procedures used in evaluating specific policies. Two published articles dealing with the development and application of the trade-off model for market research are included as appendices to this memorandum. This model was the primary instrument used in connection with a research effort examining the role of individuals attitudes and perceptions in deciding whether or not to carpool. The research was based upon a survey of commuters in 3 major urban areas and has resulted in a sizeable new data base on respondents' socio-economicmore » and worktrip characteristics, travel perceptions, and travel preferences. Research is contained in the Summary Report, also available through NTIS.« less

The promise of complementarity: Using the methods of foresight for health workforce planning.

PubMed

Rees, Gareth H; Crampton, Peter; Gauld, Robin; MacDonell, Stephen

2018-05-01

Health workforce planning aims to meet a health system's needs with a sustainable and fit-for-purpose workforce, although its efficacy is reduced in conditions of uncertainty. This PhD breakthrough article offers foresight as a means of addressing this uncertainty and models its complementarity in the context of the health workforce planning problem. The article summarises the findings of a two-case multi-phase mixed method study that incorporates actor analysis, scenario development and policy Delphi. This reveals a few dominant actors of considerable influence who are in conflict over a few critical workforce issues. Using these to augment normative scenarios, developed from existing clinically developed model of care visions, a number of exploratory alternative descriptions of future workforce situations are produced for each case. Their analysis reveals that these scenarios are a reasonable facsimile of plausible futures, though some are favoured over others. Policy directions to support these favoured aspects can also be identified. This novel approach offers workforce planners and policy makers some guidance on the use of complimentary data, methods to overcome the limitations of conventional workforce forecasting and a framework for exploring the complexities and ambiguities of a health workforce's evolution.

Can policy analysis theories predict and inform policy change? Reflections on the battle for legal abortion in Indonesia

PubMed Central

Surjadjaja, Claudia; Mayhew, Susannah H

2011-01-01

The relevance and importance of research for understanding policy processes and influencing policies has been much debated, but studies on the effectiveness of policy theories for predicting and informing opportunities for policy change (i.e. prospective policy analysis) are rare. The case study presented in this paper is drawn from a policy analysis of a contemporary process of policy debate on legalization of abortion in Indonesia, which was in flux at the time of the research and provided a unique opportunity for prospective analysis. Applying a combination of policy analysis theories, this case study provides an analysis of processes, power and relationships between actors involved in the amendment of the Health Law in Indonesia. It uses a series of practical stakeholder mapping tools to identify power relations between key actors and what strategic approaches should be employed to manage these to enhance the possibility of policy change. The findings show how the moves to legalize abortion have been supported or constrained according to the balance of political and religious powers operating in a macro-political context defined increasingly by a polarized Islamic-authoritarian—Western-liberal agenda. The issue of reproductive health constituted a battlefield where these two ideologies met and the debate on the current health law amendment became a contest, which still continues, for the larger future of Indonesia. The findings confirm the utility of policy analysis theories and stakeholder mapping tools for predicting the likelihood of policy change and informing the strategic approaches for achieving such change. They also highlight opportunities and dilemmas in prospective policy analysis and raise questions about whether research on policy processes and actors can or should be used to inform, or even influence, policies in ‘real-time’. PMID:21183461

Can policy analysis theories predict and inform policy change? Reflections on the battle for legal abortion in Indonesia.

PubMed

Surjadjaja, Claudia; Mayhew, Susannah H

2011-09-01

The relevance and importance of research for understanding policy processes and influencing policies has been much debated, but studies on the effectiveness of policy theories for predicting and informing opportunities for policy change (i.e. prospective policy analysis) are rare. The case study presented in this paper is drawn from a policy analysis of a contemporary process of policy debate on legalization of abortion in Indonesia, which was in flux at the time of the research and provided a unique opportunity for prospective analysis. Applying a combination of policy analysis theories, this case study provides an analysis of processes, power and relationships between actors involved in the amendment of the Health Law in Indonesia. It uses a series of practical stakeholder mapping tools to identify power relations between key actors and what strategic approaches should be employed to manage these to enhance the possibility of policy change. The findings show how the moves to legalize abortion have been supported or constrained according to the balance of political and religious powers operating in a macro-political context defined increasingly by a polarized Islamic-authoritarian-Western-liberal agenda. The issue of reproductive health constituted a battlefield where these two ideologies met and the debate on the current health law amendment became a contest, which still continues, for the larger future of Indonesia. The findings confirm the utility of policy analysis theories and stakeholder mapping tools for predicting the likelihood of policy change and informing the strategic approaches for achieving such change. They also highlight opportunities and dilemmas in prospective policy analysis and raise questions about whether research on policy processes and actors can or should be used to inform, or even influence, policies in 'real-time'.

Engaging policy makers in road safety research in Malaysia: a theoretical and contextual analysis.

PubMed

Tran, Nhan T; Hyder, Adnan A; Kulanthayan, Subramaniam; Singh, Suret; Umar, R S Radin

2009-04-01

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a growing public health problem that must be addressed through evidence-based interventions including policy-level changes such as the enactment of legislation to mandate specific behaviors and practices. Policy makers need to be engaged in road safety research to ensure that road safety policies are grounded in scientific evidence. This paper examines the strategies used to engage policy makers and other stakeholder groups and discusses the challenges that result from a multi-disciplinary, inter-sectoral collaboration. A framework for engaging policy makers in research was developed and applied to describe an example of collective road safety research in Malaysia. Key components of this framework include readiness, assessment, planning, implementation/evaluation, and policy development/sustainability. The case study of a collaborative intervention trial for the prevention of motorcycle crashes and deaths in Malaysia serves as a model for policy engagement by road safety and injury researchers. The analytic description of this research process in Malaysia demonstrates that the framework, through its five stages, can be used as a tool to guide the integration of needed research evidence into policy for road safety and injury prevention.

Analysis of production-inventory decisions in a decentralized supply chain with price-dependent demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurdhi, N. A.; Irsanianto, S. T.; Sutanto

2017-01-01

In this paper, we consider a production-inventory supply chain system with single-manufacturer and single-retailer. There are many types of contract that guarantee the supply chain. However, the administrative costs of the contract are usually neglected in real situation. The additional gain from integration may not cover the extra administrative costs may not addressed to supply chain. Therefore, a Stackelberg game and RFM policy are examined in order to investigate its performance on supply chain. The RFM policy is applied because its administrative costs are lower than othe policies. Although RFM policy is not capable of coordinating the channel, it leads to considerable improvements over the channel. The purpose of this research is to present a model of integrated policy, in which the goal is to maximize the whole system profit, and to evaluate decentralized-Stackelberg and RFM policies, in which individual firms in the supply chain have their own objectives and decisions to optimize.

Future market scenarios for pulpwood supply from agricultural short-rotation woody crops

Treesearch

Alexander N. Moiseyev; Daniel G. de la Torre Ugarte; Peter J. Ince

2000-01-01

The North American Pulp And Paper (NAPAP) model and USDA POLYSYS agricultural policy analysis model were linked to project future market scenarios for pulpwood supply from agricultural short-rotation woody crops in the United States. Results suggest that pulpwood supply from fast- growing hybrid poplars and cottonwoods will become marginally economical but fairly...

Connecting Payments for Ecosystem Services and Agri-Environment Regulation: An Analysis of the Welsh Glastir Scheme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wynne-Jones, Sophie

2013-01-01

Policy debates in the European Union have increasingly emphasised "Payments for Ecosystem Services" (PES) as a model for delivering agri-environmental objectives. This paper examines the Glastir scheme, introduced in Wales in 2009, as a notable attempt to move between long standing models of European agri-environment regulation and…

A Model for Institutional Policy Analysis: The Case of Student Financial Aid. AIR Forum 1981 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fenske, Robert H.; Parker, John D.

The development of an operational model that would enable a college institutional research unit to improve administrative decision-making by expanding its data base to include new activities not widely recognized throughout the institution is considered. Attention is directed to institutional research as a function within an institution,…

The Other Lottery: Are Philanthropists Backing the Best Charter Schools? Policy Analysis No. 677

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulson, Andrew J.

2011-01-01

The central problem confronting education systems around the world is not that people lack models of excellence; it is their inability to routinely replicate those models. In other fields, they take for granted an endless cycle of innovation and productivity growth that continually makes products and services better, more affordable, or both. That…

34 CFR 477.1 - What is the State Program Analysis Assistance and Policy Studies Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... ANALYSIS ASSISTANCE AND POLICY STUDIES PROGRAM General § 477.1 What is the State Program Analysis Assistance and Policy Studies Program? The State Program Analysis Assistance and Policy Studies Program... 34 Education 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false What is the State Program Analysis Assistance and...

34 CFR 477.1 - What is the State Program Analysis Assistance and Policy Studies Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... ANALYSIS ASSISTANCE AND POLICY STUDIES PROGRAM General § 477.1 What is the State Program Analysis Assistance and Policy Studies Program? The State Program Analysis Assistance and Policy Studies Program... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is the State Program Analysis Assistance and...

Proximal and distal determinants of stressful work: framework and analysis of retrospective European data.

PubMed

Wahrendorf, Morten; Siegrist, Johannes

2014-08-15

While robust evidence on associations of stressful work with health exists, less research is available on determinants of stressful work in terms of respondents' characteristics (proximal factors) and in terms of national labour market policies (distal factors). In this article we analyse proximal (childhood circumstances and labour market disadvantage) and distal determinants (national compensation and integration policies) of stressful work in a comprehensive framework. We use data from the third wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), with retrospective information on individual life courses collected among 11181 retired men and women in 13 European countries (2008-2009). To test our hypotheses we estimate multilevel regression models. Results show that stressful work is related to disadvantaged circumstances during childhood. To some extent this association is explained by labour market disadvantage during adulthood. Additionally, well developed labour market integration policies are related to lower overall levels of stressful work at national level. This analysis provides first evidence of important determinants of stressful work, both in terms of pre-employment conditions (childhood circumstances) and in terms of contextual macro-social policies.

What adult worker model? A critical look at recent social policy reform in Europe from a gender and family perspective.

PubMed

Daly, Mary

2011-01-01

Analyses regularly feature claims that European welfare states are in the process of creating an adult worker model. The theoretical and empirical basis of this argument is examined here by looking first at the conceptual foundations of the adult worker model formulation and then at the extent to which social policy reform in western Europe fits with the argument. It is suggested that the adult worker formulation is under-specified. A framework incorporating four dimensions—the treatment of individuals vis-à-vis their family role and status for the purposes of social rights, the treatment of care, the treatment of the family as a social institution, and the extent to which gender inequality is problematized—is developed and then applied. The empirical analysis reveals a strong move towards individualization as social policy promotes and valorizes individual agency and self-sufficiency and shifts some childcare from the family. Yet evidence is also found of continued (albeit changed) familism. Rather than an unequivocal move to an individualized worker model then, a dual earner, gender-specialized, family arrangement is being promoted. The latter is the middle way between the old dependencies and the new “independence.” This makes for complexity and even ambiguity in policy, a manifestation of which is that reform within countries involves concurrent moves in several directions.

Probabilistic Estimates of Climate Impacts of the Paris Agreement and Contributions from Different Countries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Chen, Y. H. H.; Monier, E.; Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

In December of 2015 during COP21 meeting in Paris almost 200 countries signed an agreement pledging to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recently USA announced plans to withdraw from the agreement. In this study, we estimate an impact of this decision on future climate using the MIT Integrated Global System Model, which consists of the human activity model, Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and a climate model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Earth System Model (MESM). For comparison, we also estimated impacts of possible withdrawals of China, Europe or India. In addition to the "no climate policy" scenario, we consider five emissions scenarios: Paris, Paris_no_USA, Paris_no_EUR and so on. Climate simulations were carried out from 1861 to 2005 driven by prescribed changes in GHGs and natural forcings and them continued to 2100 driven by GHG emissions produced by EPPA model. Because Paris agreement only cover the period up to 2030, last five scenarios were created assuming that emissions or carbon intensity will continue to decrease after 2030 at the same rate as in the 2020-2030 period. To account for uncertainty in climate system response to external forcing, we carry out 400 member ensembles on climate simulations for each scenario. Probability distributions for climate parameters are obtained by comparing simulated climate for 1861 to 2010 with observations. Our analysis shows that, full implementation of Paris agreement (under above-descried assumptions) will increase probability of surface air temperature in the last decade of this century increasing by less than 3oC relative to pre-industrial form about 20% for "no climate policy" to about 86%. Withdrawal of USA, China, Europe or India will decrease this probability to about 63, 67, 75 and 82%, respectively.

Economic analysis of secondary and enhanced oil recovery techniques in Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, Erdal

This dissertation primarily aims to theoretically analyze a firm's optimization of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon dioxide sequestration under different social policies and empirically analyze the firm's optimization of enhanced oil recovery. The final part of the dissertation empirically analyzes how geological factors and water injection management influence oil recovery. The first chapter builds a theoretical model to analyze economic optimization of EOR and geological carbon sequestration under different social policies. Specifically, it analyzes how social policies on sequestration influence the extent of oil operations, optimal oil production and CO2 sequestration. The theoretical results show that the socially optimal policy is a subsidy on the net CO2 sequestration, assuming negative net emissions from EOR. Such a policy is expected to increase a firm's total carbon dioxide sequestration. The second chapter statistically estimates the theoretical oil production model and its different versions. Empirical results are not robust over different estimation techniques and not in line with the theoretical production model. The last part of the second chapter utilizes a simplified version of theoretical model and concludes that EOR via CO2 injection improves oil recovery. The final chapter analyzes how a contemporary oil recovery technology (water flooding of oil reservoirs) and various reservoir-specific geological factors influence oil recovery in Wyoming. The results show that there is a positive concave relationship between cumulative water injection and cumulative oil recovery and also show that certain geological factors affect the oil recovery. Moreover, the curvature of the concave functional relationship between cumulative water injection and oil recovery is reservoir-specific due to heterogeneities among different reservoirs.

Modeling human-climate interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacoby, Henry D.

If policymakers and the public are to be adequately informed about the climate change threat, climate modeling needs to include components far outside its conventional boundaries. An integration of climate chemistry and meteorology, oceanography, and terrestrial biology has been achieved over the past few decades. More recently the scope of these studies has been expanded to include the human systems that influence the planet, the social and ecological consequences of potential change, and the political processes that lead to attempts at mitigation and adaptation. For example, key issues—like the relative seriousness of climate change risk, the choice of long-term goals for policy, and the analysis of today's decisions when uncertainty may be reduced tomorrow—cannot be correctly understood without joint application of the natural science of the climate system and social and behavioral science aspects of human response. Though integration efforts have made significant contributions to understanding of the climate issue, daunting intellectual and institutional barriers stand in the way of needed progress. Deciding appropriate policies will be a continuing task over the long term, however, so efforts to extend the boundaries of climate modeling and assessment merit long-term attention as well. Components of the effort include development of a variety of approaches to analysis, the maintenance of a clear a division between close-in decision support and science/policy research, and the development of funding institutions that can sustain integrated research over the long haul.

Optimal harvesting policy of a stochastic two-species competitive model with Lévy noise in a polluted environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yu; Yuan, Sanling

2017-07-01

As well known that the sudden environmental shocks and toxicant can affect the population dynamics of fish species, a mechanistic understanding of how sudden environmental change and toxicant influence the optimal harvesting policy requires development. This paper presents the optimal harvesting of a stochastic two-species competitive model with Lévy noise in a polluted environment, where the Lévy noise is used to describe the sudden climate change. Due to the discontinuity of the Lévy noise, the classical optimal harvesting methods based on the explicit solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation are invalid. The object of this paper is to fill up this gap and establish the optimal harvesting policy. By using of aggregation and ergodic methods, the approximation of the optimal harvesting effort and maximum expectation of sustainable yields are obtained. Numerical simulations are carried out to support these theoretical results. Our analysis shows that the Lévy noise and the mean stress measure of toxicant in organism may affect the optimal harvesting policy significantly.

Alaska IPASS database preparation manual.

Treesearch

P. McHugh; D. Olson; C. Schallau

1989-01-01

Describes the data, their sources, and the calibration procedures used in compiling a database for the Alaska IPASS (interactive policy analysis simulation system) model. Although this manual is for Alaska, it provides generic instructions for analysts preparing databases for other geographical areas.

Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

2003-12-01

Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to endogenize air pollution impacts within the EPPA model, allowing us to study potential economic effects and feedbacks. We find strong interaction between air pollution and economies, although precise estimates of the effects require further investigation and refined resolution of the urban scale chemistry model.

Agricultural policy and social returns to eradication programs: the case of Aujeszky's disease in Sweden.

PubMed

Andersson, H; Lexmon, A; Robertsson, J A; Lundeheim, N; Wierup, M

1997-02-01

Economic-welfare analysis of animal disease prevention programs frequently ignore the constraints of the agricultural policy environment. Prevention programs affect producers, consumers and the government. The policy environment to a large extent determines the magnitude as well as the distribution of benefits of the program among these groups. The Swedish hog industry has been exposed to three major policy changes during the 1990-1995 period. These scenarios involve various degrees of government intervention in the agricultural sector including internal market deregulation and EU-membership. Aujeszky's disease is a virus disease with swine as the natural infection reservoir. Piglets are the most fragile and an outbreak of the disease results in symptoms such as shaking, cramps and convulsions with an increase in the mortality rate. Slaughter hogs suffer from coughing, fever and reduce their feed consumption. During the last 20-25 years the incidence of Aujeszky's disease (AD) has been increasing in Sweden. In 1989 an eradication program was undertaken. A model is developed to analyze social benefits of an eradication program given variations in agricultural policy. The model refers to the specifics of the AD-program implemented in Sweden. The expected benefits of the program are evaluated using a welfare-economic analysis applying cost-benefit analysis. Total benefits of the program are evaluated across herd and size categories and different regions. Data concerning the frequency of the virus among various categories of herds prior to enacting the program were used (Wahlström et al., 1990). In addition, data from an agricultural insurance company were used to estimate the conditional probability of an outbreak given that the herd is infected. Biological and technical parameter values were collected from a variety of sources. The results of the analysis indicate that the program is economically viable given a social rate of discount in the range of 3-5% without considering non-monetary aspects such as animal ethics. A scenario where the Swedish agricultural sector is deregulated provides the maximum benefits of the program. Consumers obtain about 50% of the benefits excluding program costs. The deregulation scenario would correspond closely to a case where a reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is applied across member countries. In the current case where Sweden is a member of the EU, the benefits are reduced mainly due to lower prices of inputs and pork.

Informing education policy in Afghanistan: Using design of experiments and data envelopment analysis to provide transparency in complex simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlin, Benjamin

Education planning provides the policy maker and the decision maker a logical framework in which to develop and implement education policy. At the international level, education planning is often confounded by both internal and external complexities, making the development of education policy difficult. This research presents a discrete event simulation in which individual students and teachers flow through the system across a variable time horizon. This simulation is then used with advancements in design of experiments, multivariate statistical analysis, and data envelopment analysis, to provide a methodology designed to assist the international education planning community. We propose that this methodology will provide the education planner with insights into the complexity of the education system, the effects of both endogenous and exogenous factors upon the system, and the implications of policies as they pertain to potential futures of the system. We do this recognizing that there are multiple actors and stochastic events in play, which although cannot be accurately forecasted, must be accounted for within the education model. To both test the implementation and usefulness of such a model and to prove its relevance, we chose the Afghan education system as the focal point of this research. The Afghan education system is a complex, real world system with competing actors, dynamic requirements, and ambiguous states. At the time of this writing, Afghanistan is at a pivotal point as a nation, and has been the recipient of a tremendous amount of international support and attention. Finally, Afghanistan is a fragile state, and the proliferation of the current disparity in education across gender, districts, and ethnicity could provide the catalyst to drive the country into hostility. In order to prevent the failure of the current government, it is essential that the education system is able to meet the demands of the Afghan people. This work provides insights into the Afghan education system, to include implications of security, the potential effects of societal issues, and prescriptive policy options. In using the proposed methodology, we provide justification for the future use of larger complex simulations in education planning |--- especially when said simulation is integrated with efficient design of experiments and data envelopment analysis.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

PubMed

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

The mineral sector and economic development in Ghana: A computable general equilibrium analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addy, Samuel N.

A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) model is formulated for conducting mineral policy analysis in the context of national economic development for Ghana. The model, called GHANAMIN, places strong emphasis on production, trade, and investment. It can be used to examine both micro and macro economic impacts of policies associated with mineral investment, taxation, and terms of trade changes, as well as mineral sector performance impacts due to technological change or the discovery of new deposits. Its economywide structure enables the study of broader development policy with a focus on individual or multiple sectors, simultaneously. After going through a period of contraction for about two decades, mining in Ghana has rebounded significantly and is currently the main foreign exchange earner. Gold alone contributed 44.7 percent of 1994 total export earnings. GHANAMIN is used to investigate the economywide impacts of mineral tax policies, world market mineral prices changes, mining investment, and increased mineral exports. It is also used for identifying key sectors for economic development. Various simulations were undertaken with the following results: Recently implemented mineral tax policies are welfare increasing, but have an accompanying decrease in the output of other export sectors. World mineral price rises stimulate an increase in real GDP; however, this increase is less than real GDP decreases associated with price declines. Investment in the non-gold mining sector increases real GDP more than investment in gold mining, because of the former's stronger linkages to the rest of the economy. Increased mineral exports are very beneficial to the overall economy. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in mining increases welfare more so than domestic capital, which is very limited. Mining investment and the increased mineral exports since 1986 have contributed significantly to the country's economic recovery, with gold mining accounting for 95 percent of the mineral sector's contribution. The mining sector in general is identified as a leading sector for economic development.

Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

2012-12-01

With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to grassland and no-till) in terms of sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields and loads. Input data included characteristics of reservoirs, land cover, soil, agricultural management, livestock management and point sources of pollution. The present study continues from there by first assessing the cost-effectiveness of different sets of BMPs, based on farm budgets and environmental criteria selected by the user. We subsequently examine monetary trade-offs between on-farm costs and social value of water quality improvements using cost-benefit ratios. Because water quality is a non-excludable and non-rivalrous good, its benefits to society are evaluated with non-market evaluation techniques mostly based on quality-constrained recreational use of water. From a policy perspective, cost-effectiveness analysis is very helpful in assisting the decision maker in the highly complex process of defining priorities with respect to BMP strategies. With a user-friendly interface for economic analysis integrated into GIBSI, watershed organizations and stakeholders can use such a tool to promote sustainable agricultural practices and water use. This submission is part of Watershed Evaluation of BMPs project (WEBs) funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Ducks Unlimited Canada

CO2, energy and economy interactions: A multisectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium model for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Yoonyoung

While vast resources have been invested in the development of computational models for cost-benefit analysis for the "whole world" or for the largest economies (e.g. United States, Japan, Germany), the remainder have been thrown together into one model for the "rest of the world." This study presents a multi-sectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Korea. This research evaluates the impacts of controlling COsb2 emissions using a multisectoral CGE model. This CGE economy-energy-environment model analyzes and quantifies the interactions between COsb2, energy and economy. This study examines interactions and influences of key environmental policy components: applied economic instruments, emission targets, and environmental tax revenue recycling methods. The most cost-effective economic instrument is the carbon tax. The economic effects discussed include impacts on main macroeconomic variables (in particular, economic growth), sectoral production, and the energy market. This study considers several aspects of various COsb2 control policies, such as the basic variables in the economy: capital stock and net foreign debt. The results indicate emissions might be stabilized in Korea at the expense of economic growth and with dramatic sectoral allocation effects. Carbon dioxide emissions stabilization could be achieved to the tune of a 600 trillion won loss over a 20 year period (1990-2010). The average annual real GDP would decrease by 2.10% over the simulation period compared to the 5.87% increase in the Business-as-Usual. This model satisfies an immediate need for a policy simulation model for Korea and provides the basic framework for similar economies. It is critical to keep the central economic question at the forefront of any discussion regarding environmental protection. How much will reform cost, and what does the economy stand to gain and lose? Without this model, the policy makers might resort to hesitation or even blind speculation. With the model, the policy makers gain the power of prediction. This model serves as a tool for constructing the most effective strategy for Korea.

Collaborative-Large scale Engineering Assessment Networks for Environmental Research: The Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moo-Young, H.

2004-05-01

A networked infrastructure for engineering solutions and policy alternatives is necessary to assess, manage, and protect complex, anthropogenic ally stressed environmental resources effectively. Reductionist and discrete disciplinary methodologies are no longer adequate to evaluate and model complex environmental systems and anthropogenic stresses. While the reductonist approach provides important information regarding individual mechanisms, it cannot provide complete information about how multiple processes are related. Therefore, it is not possible to make accurate predictions about system responses to engineering interventions and the effectiveness of policy options. For example, experts cannot agree on best management strategies for contaminated sediments in riverine and estuarine systems. This is due, in part to the fact that existing models do not accurately capture integrated system dynamics. In addition, infrastructure is not available for investigators to exchange and archive data, to collaborate on new investigative methods, and to synthesize these results to develop engineering solutions and policy alternatives. Our vision for the future is to create a network comprising field facilities and a collaboration of engineers, scientists, policy makers, and community groups. This will allow integration across disciplines, across different temporal and spatial scales, surface and subsurface geographies, and air sheds and watersheds. Benefits include fast response to changes in system health, real-time decision making, and continuous data collection that can be used to anticipate future problems, and to develop sound engineering solutions and management decisions. CLEANER encompasses four general aspects: 1) A Network of environmental field facilities instrumented for the acquisition and analysis of environmental data; 2) A Virtual Repository of Data and information technology for engineering modeling, analysis and visualization of data, i.e. an environmental cyber-infrastructure; 3) A Mechanism for multidisciplinary research and education activities designed to exploit the output of the instrumented sites and networked information technology, to formulate engineering and policy options directed toward the protection, remediation, and restoration of stressed environments and sustainability of environmental resources; and 4) A Collaboration among engineers, natural and social scientists, educators, policy makers, industry, non-governmental organizations, the public, and other stakeholders.

A comparative analysis of policies addressing rural oral health in eight English-speaking OECD countries.

PubMed

Crocombe, Leonard A; Goldberg, Lynette R; Bell, Erica; Seidel, Bastian

2017-01-01

Oral health is fundamental to overall health. Poor oral health is largely preventable but unacceptable inequalities exist, particularly for people in rural areas. The issues are complex. Rural populations are characterised by lower rates of health insurance, higher rates of poverty, less water fluoridation, fewer dentists and oral health specialists, and greater distances to access care. These factors inter-relate with educational, attitudinal, and system-level issues. An important area of enquiry is whether and how national oral health policies address causes and solutions for poor rural oral health. The purpose of this study was to examine a series of government policies on oral health to (i) determine the extent to which such policies addressed rural oral health issues, and (ii) identify enabling assumptions in policy language about problems and solutions regarding rural communities. Eight current oral health policies were identified from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the USA, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales. Validated content and critical discourse analyses were used to document and explore the concepts in these policy documents, with a particular focus on the frequency with which rural oral health was mentioned, and the enabling assumptions in policy language about rural communities. Seventy-three concepts relating to oral health were identified from the textual analysis of the eight policy documents. The rural concept addressing oral health issues occurred in only 2% of all policies and was notably absent from the oral health policies of countries with substantial rural populations. It occurred most frequently in the policy documents from Australia and Scotland, less so in the policy documents from Canada, Wales, and New Zealand, and not at all in the oral health policies from the US, England, and Northern Ireland. Thus, the oral health needs of rural communities were generally not the focus of, nor included in, the oral health policy documents in this study. When the language of concepts related to rural oral health was examined, the qualitative analysis identified four discourse themes related to both causality and solutions. These ranked discourse themes focused on service models, workforce issues, social determinants of health, and prevention. None of the policies addressed the structural economic determinants of unequal rural oral health, nor did they specifically assert the rights of children in rural communities to equitable oral health care. This study documented the limited focus on rural oral health that existed in national oral health policies from eight different English-speaking countries. It supports the need for an increased focus on rural oral health issues in oral health policies, particularly as increased oral health is clearly associated with increased general health. It speaks to the critical importance of periodic analysis of the content of oral health policies to ensure that issues of inequality are addressed. Further, it reinforces the need for research findings about effective oral health care to be translated into practice in the development of practical and financially viable policies to make access to oral health care more equitable, particularly for people living in rural and remote areas.

Can schools reduce bullying? The relationship between school characteristics and the prevalence of bullying behaviours.

PubMed

Muijs, Daniel

2017-06-01

Bullying remains a persistent phenomenon in schools, but the extent to which day-to-day policies and practices relate to bullying prevalence has not been widely studied. In this study, we use an educational effectiveness framework to interrogate this relationship. The aim was to study the relationship between school factors and prevalence of bullying in primary schools. We hypothesize that school conditions (e.g., size), school policies (e.g., behaviour policies), and school processes (e.g., teaching quality) are related to bullying prevalence. Surveys were administered to pupils in 35 primary schools in four local authorities in England. Pupils (N = 1,411) and teachers (N = 68) in the final year of primary school (year 6) were surveyed. This study drew on the following data sources: A pupil survey on bullying behaviours A survey of teachers on school policies and processes Analysis of data on school processes from school inspection reports Analysis of secondary data on school conditions and pupil characteristics. Three-level multilevel models were used to analyse the data. Results show a substantial school- and classroom-level effect on prevalence of bullying. Effective school policies were found to be related to levels of bullying. The study provides support for the importance of schools' embedded policies and practices in relation to bullying prevalence and provides evidence for policy on the importance of focusing on a broad range of outcomes. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Emergency Department Escalation in Theory and Practice: A Mixed-Methods Study Using a Model of Organizational Resilience.

PubMed

Back, Jonathan; Ross, Alastair J; Duncan, Myanna D; Jaye, Peter; Henderson, Katherine; Anderson, Janet E

2017-11-01

Escalation policies are used by emergency departments (EDs) when responding to an increase in demand (eg, a sudden inflow of patients) or a reduction in capacity (eg, a lack of beds to admit patients). The policies aim to maintain the ability to deliver patient care, without compromising safety, by modifying "normal" processes. The study objective is to examine escalation policies in theory and practice. This was a mixed-method study involving a conceptual analysis of National Health Service escalation policies (n=12) and associated escalation actions (n=92), as well as a detailed ethnographic study of escalation in situ during a 16-month period in a large UK ED (n=30 observations). The conceptual analysis of National Health Service escalation policies found that their use requires the ability to dynamically reconfigure resources (staff and equipment), change work flow, and relocate patients. In practice, it was discovered that when the ED is under pressure, these prerequisites cannot always be attained. Instead, escalation processes were adapted to manage pressures informally. This adaptive need ("work as done") was found to be incompletely specified in policies ("work as imagined"). Formal escalation actions and their implementation in practice differed and varied in their effectiveness. Monitoring how escalation works in practice is essential in understanding whether and how escalation policies help to manage workload. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genomic Sequencing: Assessing The Health Care System, Policy, And Big-Data Implications

PubMed Central

Phillips, Kathryn A.; Trosman, Julia; Kelley, Robin K.; Pletcher, Mark J.; Douglas, Michael P.; Weldon, Christine B.

2014-01-01

New genomic sequencing technologies enable the high-speed analysis of multiple genes simultaneously, including all of those in a person's genome. Sequencing is a prominent example of a “big data” technology because of the massive amount of information it produces and its complexity, diversity, and timeliness. Our objective in this article is to provide a policy primer on sequencing and illustrate how it can affect health care system and policy issues. Toward this end, we developed an easily applied classification of sequencing based on inputs, methods, and outputs. We used it to examine the implications of sequencing for three health care system and policy issues: making care more patient-centered, developing coverage and reimbursement policies, and assessing economic value. We conclude that sequencing has great promise but that policy challenges include how to optimize patient engagement as well as privacy, develop coverage policies that distinguish research from clinical uses and account for bioinformatics costs, and determine the economic value of sequencing through complex economic models that take into account multiple findings and downstream costs. PMID:25006153

Genomic sequencing: assessing the health care system, policy, and big-data implications.

PubMed

Phillips, Kathryn A; Trosman, Julia R; Kelley, Robin K; Pletcher, Mark J; Douglas, Michael P; Weldon, Christine B

2014-07-01

New genomic sequencing technologies enable the high-speed analysis of multiple genes simultaneously, including all of those in a person's genome. Sequencing is a prominent example of a "big data" technology because of the massive amount of information it produces and its complexity, diversity, and timeliness. Our objective in this article is to provide a policy primer on sequencing and illustrate how it can affect health care system and policy issues. Toward this end, we developed an easily applied classification of sequencing based on inputs, methods, and outputs. We used it to examine the implications of sequencing for three health care system and policy issues: making care more patient-centered, developing coverage and reimbursement policies, and assessing economic value. We conclude that sequencing has great promise but that policy challenges include how to optimize patient engagement as well as privacy, develop coverage policies that distinguish research from clinical uses and account for bioinformatics costs, and determine the economic value of sequencing through complex economic models that take into account multiple findings and downstream costs. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

“Nitrogen Budgets for the Mississippi River Basin using the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentation on the results from the 3 linked models, EPIC (USDA), CMAQ and NEWS to analyze a scenario of increased corn production related to biofuels together with Clean Air Act emission reductions across the US and the resultant effect on nitrogen loading to the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi River Basin. This is a demonstration of a capability to connect the N cascade bringing air, land, water together. EPIC = Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, CMAQ = Community Multiscale Air Quality model, NEWS = Nutrient Export of WaterSheds model. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.

A system to build distributed multivariate models and manage disparate data sharing policies: implementation in the scalable national network for effectiveness research.

PubMed

Meeker, Daniella; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Matheny, Michael E; Farcas, Claudiu; D'Arcy, Michel; Pearlman, Laura; Nookala, Lavanya; Day, Michele E; Kim, Katherine K; Kim, Hyeoneui; Boxwala, Aziz; El-Kareh, Robert; Kuo, Grace M; Resnic, Frederic S; Kesselman, Carl; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2015-11-01

Centralized and federated models for sharing data in research networks currently exist. To build multivariate data analysis for centralized networks, transfer of patient-level data to a central computation resource is necessary. The authors implemented distributed multivariate models for federated networks in which patient-level data is kept at each site and data exchange policies are managed in a study-centric manner. The objective was to implement infrastructure that supports the functionality of some existing research networks (e.g., cohort discovery, workflow management, and estimation of multivariate analytic models on centralized data) while adding additional important new features, such as algorithms for distributed iterative multivariate models, a graphical interface for multivariate model specification, synchronous and asynchronous response to network queries, investigator-initiated studies, and study-based control of staff, protocols, and data sharing policies. Based on the requirements gathered from statisticians, administrators, and investigators from multiple institutions, the authors developed infrastructure and tools to support multisite comparative effectiveness studies using web services for multivariate statistical estimation in the SCANNER federated network. The authors implemented massively parallel (map-reduce) computation methods and a new policy management system to enable each study initiated by network participants to define the ways in which data may be processed, managed, queried, and shared. The authors illustrated the use of these systems among institutions with highly different policies and operating under different state laws. Federated research networks need not limit distributed query functionality to count queries, cohort discovery, or independently estimated analytic models. Multivariate analyses can be efficiently and securely conducted without patient-level data transport, allowing institutions with strict local data storage requirements to participate in sophisticated analyses based on federated research networks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

The economics of subnational carbon policy interactions and integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Fadli

An integrated, nationwide carbon policy is essential to achieve US environmental targets relating to carbon emissions. The carbon policy literature is loaded with qualitative analysis of the implications or mechanisms of an integrated emissions market across the US, but current quantitative studies do not offer solutions regarding the interactions of coexisting US regional emission markets and other policy instruments. Therefore, this dissertation attempts to answer three fundamental concerns about US carbon policy. The second chapter analyzes the welfare implications of different relative stringencies of cap-setting under a proposed integration of two emissions markets, considering the attributes relevant to each market. The third chapter extends this market integration analysis by adding an intertemporal feature to analyze the consequences of integrating existing emission markets in the US (i.e., California and RGGI). The fourth chapter examines the adverse economic implications of adopting several overlapping carbon policy instruments to regulate carbon emissions in a region. The second and third chapters employ a simple structural model with a stochastic variable to account for uncertainties in emissions. The fourth chapter utilizes a static general equilibrium framework based on IMPLAN data for California to comprehensively evaluate the reactions of the state-wide economy to various carbon policy settings. In general, the results show that integrating existing emissions markets could generate both positive and negative effects on economic welfare. The positive effects result from gains from trading permits, while negative results come from perverse second-best interactions. Policymakers are expected to carefully consider the factors and attributes of all regions prior to setting their policy targets and designing an integrated system of carbon reduction.

Research on the influence of parking charging strategy based on multi-level extension theory of group decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Fen; Hu, Wanxin

2017-05-01

Based on analysis of the impact of the experience of parking policy at home and abroad, design the impact analysis process of parking strategy. First, using group decision theory to create a parking strategy index system and calculate its weight. Index system includes government, parking operators and travelers. Then, use a multi-level extension theory to analyze the CBD parking strategy. Assess the parking strategy by calculating the correlation of each indicator. Finally, assess the strategy of parking charges through a case. Provide a scientific and reasonable basis for assessing parking strategy. The results showed that the model can effectively analyze multi-target, multi-property parking policy evaluation.

Economic context analysis in mental health care. Usability of health financing and cost of illness studies for international comparisons.

PubMed

Salvador-Carulla, L; Hernández-Peña, P

2011-03-01

This paper discusses an integrated approach to mental health studies on Financing of Illness (FoI) and health accounting, Cost of Illness (CoI) and Burden of Disease (BoD). In order to expand the mental health policies, the following are suggested: (a) an international consensus on the standard scope, methods to collect and to analyse mental health data, as well as to report comparative information; (b) mathematical models are also to be validated and tested in an integrated approach, (c) a better knowledge transfer between clinicians and knowledge engineers, and between researchers and policy makers to translate economic analysis into practice and health planning.

The influence and ethics of interest groups on policy incentives for clean energy development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maguire, Mariana C.

The clean energy revolution in the United States is not going to happen until diverse stakeholders in the coalition of clean energy proponents strengthen their cohesion and influence—two critical tools for interest group's to be successful in driving the formulation of public policy. Currently, clean energy technology and resource development is supported by a highly diverse coalition of interest groups such as environmental groups, health organizations, industry, and the Defense Department, whose primary goals are often unrelated. Yet their objectives are increasingly well served by pursuing clean energy development by pushing lawmakers for supportive policies. However, characteristics of this ad hoc coalition can hinder its influence and cohesion. Whereas, fossil fuel interests—exemplified by the coalition of oil proponents—are highly cohesive and influential. This thesis will analyze whether there is a correlation between public policies on clean energy, and the strength of interest group influence over those policy decisions. It will begin with an analysis of interest group theories. Next it will analyze the histories of the oil industry as the model opponent of clean energy policies, and the biofuels, wind energy, and solar energy industries as the model proponents of clean energy policies. The composition of the respective coalitions will reveal if they are diverse or similar, with broad or narrow goals, and other important characteristics. Their respective policy positions and messages will show what values are important to them, and the presidential support each coalition has been achieved, or failed to achieve, will provide further insight into their effectiveness. This thesis will then apply interest group theories to the supporter and opponent coalitions. Results obtained indicate that the coalition of oil interests is large, yet very cohesive and influential, while the coalition for clean energy is large, generally diffuse but with some important signs of cohesion, and relatively influential. Therefore this analysis concludes that the clean energy coalition must strengthen itself in areas that produce cohesion, such as encouraging partnerships with stakeholders with asymmetrical interests, and increase its financial influence in order to leverage more resources toward influencing policymakers to promote clean energy development.

Sustaining critical care: using evidence-based simulation to evaluate ICU management policies.

PubMed

Mahmoudian-Dehkordi, Amin; Sadat, Somayeh

2017-12-01

Intensive Care Units (ICU) are costly yet critical hospital departments that should be available to care for patients needing highly specialized critical care. Shortage of ICU beds in many regions of the world and the constant fire-fighting to make these beds available through various ICU management policies motivated this study. The paper discusses the application of a generic system dynamics model of emergency patient flow in a typical hospital, populated with empirical evidence found in the medical and hospital administration literature, to explore the dynamics of intended and unintended consequences of such ICU management policies under a natural disaster crisis scenario. ICU management policies that can be implemented by a single hospital on short notice, namely premature transfer from ICU, boarding in ward, and general ward admission control, along with their possible combinations, are modeled and their impact on managerial and health outcome measures are investigated. The main insight out of the study is that the general ward admission control policy outperforms the rest of ICU management policies under such crisis scenarios with regards to reducing total mortality, which is counter intuitive for hospital administrators as this policy is not very effective at alleviating the symptoms of the problem, namely high ED and ICU occupancy rates that are closely monitored by hospital management particularly in times of crisis. A multivariate sensitivity analysis on parameters with diverse range of values in the literature found the superiority of the general ward admission control to hold true in every scenario.

The use of a policy dialogue to facilitate evidence-informed policy development for improved access to care: the case of the Winnipeg Central Intake Service (WCIS).

PubMed

Damani, Zaheed; MacKean, Gail; Bohm, Eric; DeMone, Brie; Wright, Brock; Noseworthy, Tom; Holroyd-Leduc, Jayna; Marshall, Deborah A

2016-10-18

Policy dialogues are critical for developing responsive, effective, sustainable, evidence-informed policy. Our multidisciplinary team, including researchers, physicians and senior decision-makers, comprehensively evaluated The Winnipeg Central Intake Service, a single-entry model in Winnipeg, Manitoba, to improve patient access to hip/knee replacement surgery. We used the evaluation findings to develop five evidence-informed policy directions to help improve access to scheduled clinical services across Manitoba. Using guiding principles of public participation processes, we hosted a policy roundtable meeting to engage stakeholders and use their input to refine the policy directions. Here, we report on the use and input of a policy roundtable meeting and its role in contributing to the development of evidence-informed policy. Our evidence-informed policy directions focused on formal measurement/monitoring of quality, central intake as a preferred model for service delivery, provincial scope, transparent processes/performance indicators, and patient choice of provider. We held a policy roundtable meeting and used outcomes of facilitated discussions to refine these directions. Individuals from our team and six stakeholder groups across Manitoba participated (n = 44), including patients, family physicians, orthopaedic surgeons, surgical office assistants, Winnipeg Central Intake team, and administrators/managers. We developed evaluation forms to assess the meeting process, and collected decision-maker partners' perspectives on the value of the policy roundtable meeting and use of policy directions to improve access to scheduled clinical services after the meeting, and again 15 months later. We analyzed roundtable and evaluation data using thematic analysis to identify key themes. Four key findings emerged. First, participants supported all policy directions, with revisions and key implementation considerations identified. Second, participants felt the policy roundtable meeting achieved its purpose (to engage stakeholders, elicit feedback, refine policy directions). Third, our decision-maker partners' expectations of the policy roundtable meeting were exceeded; they re-affirmed its value and described the refined policy directions as foundational to establishing the vocabulary, vision and framework for improving access to scheduled clinical services in Manitoba. Finally, our adaptation of key design elements was conducive to discussion of issues surrounding access to care. Our policy roundtable process was an effective tool for acquiring broad input from stakeholders, refining policy directions and forming the necessary consensus starting points to move towards evidence-informed policy.

Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future: Modeling Social Unrest in Karachi, Pakistan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olson, Jarrod; Kurzrok, Andrew J.; Hund, Gretchen

Social unrest represents a major challenge for policy makers around the globe, as it can quickly escalate from small scale disturbances to highly public protests, riots and even civil war. This research was motivated by a need to understand social instability and to unpack the comments made during a spring 2013 conference hosted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security and the U.S. Institute for Peace, where policymakers noted that models considering social instability are often not suitable for decision-making. This analysis shows that existing state level models of instability could be improved in spatial scale to themore » city level, even without significantly improved data access. Better data would make this analysis more complete and likely improve the quality of the model. Another challenge with incorporating modeling into decision-making is the need to understand uncertainty in a model. Policy makers are frequently tasked with making decisions without a clear outcome, so characterization of uncertainty is critical. This report describes the work and findings of the project. It took place in three phases: a literature review of social stability research, a “hindsight scan” that looked at historical data, and a “foresight scan” looking at future scenarios.« less

Putting newborn hearing screening on the political agenda in Belgium: local initiatives toward a community programme - a qualitative study.

PubMed

Vos, Bénédicte; Lagasse, Raphaël; Levêque, Alain

2014-07-01

The Kingdon model, based on the convergence of three streams (problem, policy, and politics) and the opening of a policy window, analyses the process by which a health issue is placed on the political agenda. We used this model to document the political agenda-setting process of the newborn hearing screening programme in Belgium. A qualitative study based on a document review and on semi-directed interviews was carried out. The interviews were conducted with nine people who had played a role in putting the issue in question on the political agenda, and the documents reviewed included scientific literature and internal reports and publications from the newborn hearing screening programme. The thematic analysis of the data collected was carried out on the basis of the Kingdon model's three streams. The political agenda-setting of this screening programme was based on many factors. The problem stream included factors external to the context under study, such as the technological developments and the contribution of the scientific literature which led to the recommendation to provide newborn hearing screening. The two other streams (policy and politics) covered factors internal to the Belgian context. The fact that it was locally feasible with financial support, the network of doctors convinced of the need for newborn hearing screening, the drafting of various proposals, and the search for financing were all part of the policy stream. The Belgian political context and the policy opportunities concerning preventive medicine were identified as significant factors in the third stream. When these three streams converged, a policy window opened, allowing newborn hearing screening onto the political agenda and enabling the policy decision for its introduction. The advantage of applying the Kingdon model in our approach was the ability to demonstrate the political agenda-setting process, using the three streams. This made it possible to identify the many factors involved in the process. However, the roles of the stakeholders and of the context were somewhat inexplicit in this model.

An analysis of England's nursing policy on compassion and the 6Cs: the hidden presence of M. Simone Roach's model of caring.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Ann

2016-03-01

In 2012, chief nursing officers (CNO) in England published a policy on compassion in response to serious criticisms of patients' care. Because their objective is fundamentally to shape nursing, this study argues, following Popper, that the policy should be analysed. An appraisal tool, developed from Popper, Gadamer, Jauss and Thiselton, is the framework for this analysis. The CNO policy document identified six values and behaviours, termed '6Cs', required by all nurses, midwives and care staff. The document contains no data, references or acknowledgements, but is similar to the 6Cs defined by the Canadian nursing nun, Sister M. Simone Roach, in her theory of caring published 30 years earlier. Roach considered caring and the components of it, including compassion, to be moral virtues, an inner motivation to care. This study suggests that without explicit reference to Roach's ideas, and her underlying theoretical base, the CNO requirement has the effect of turning virtues into commodities and a form of external control, described by Ritzer as a McDonaldized dehumanization. This study, which has international relevance beyond England and the UK, suggests that the CNO revise their policy by acknowledging Roach's 6Cs and openly discuss the implications of her work for their policy. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mass and Elite Views on Nuclear Security: US National Security Surveys 1993-1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HERRON,KERRY G.; JENKINS-SMITH,HANK C.; HUGHES,SCOTT D.

This is the fourth report in an ongoing series of studies examining how US perspectives about nuclear security are evolving in the post-Cold War era. In Volume 1 the authors present findings from a nationwide telephone survey of randomly selected members of the US general public conducted from 13 September to 14 October 1999. Results are compared to findings from previous surveys in this series conducted in 1993, 1995, and 1997, and trends are analyzed. Key areas of investigation reported in Volume 1 include evolving perceptions of nuclear weapons risks and benefits, preferences for related policy and spending issues, andmore » views about three emerging issue areas: deterrent utility of precision guided munitions; response options to attacks in which mass casualty weapons are used; and expectations about national missile defenses. In this volume they relate respondent beliefs about nuclear security to perceptions of nuclear risks and benefits and to policy preferences. They develop causal models to partially explain key preferences, and they employ cluster analysis to group respondents into four policy relevant clusters characterized by similar views and preferences about nuclear security within each cluster. Systematic links are found among respondent demographic characteristics, perceptions of nuclear risks and benefits, policy beliefs, and security policy and spending preferences. In Volume 2 they provide analysis of in-depth interviews with fifty members of the US security policy community.« less

Developing recommendations to improve the quality of diabetes care in Ireland: a policy analysis.

PubMed

Mc Hugh, Sheena M; Perry, Ivan J; Bradley, Colin; Brugha, Ruairí

2014-09-18

In 2006, the Health Service Executive (HSE) in Ireland established an Expert Advisory Group (EAG) for Diabetes, to act as its main source of operational policy and strategic advice for this chronic condition. The process was heralded as the starting point for the development of formal chronic disease management programmes. Although recommendations were published in 2008, implementation did not proceed as expected. Our aim was to examine the development of recommendations by the EAG as an instrumental case study of the policy formulation process, in the context of a health system undergoing organisational and financial upheaval. This study uses Kingdon's Multiple Streams Theory to examine the evolution of the EAG recommendations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 15 stakeholders from the advisory group. Interview data were supplemented with documentary analysis of published and unpublished documents. Thematic analysis was guided by the propositions of the Kingdon model. In the problem stream, the prioritisation of diabetes within the policy arena was a gradual process resulting from an accumulation of evidence, international comparison, and experience. The policy stream was bolstered by group consensus rather than complete agreement on the best way to manage the condition. The EAG assumed the politics stream was also on course to converge with the other streams, as the group was established by the HSE, which had the remit for policy implementation. However, the politics stream did not converge due to waning support from health service management and changes to the organisational structure and financial capacity of the health system. These changes trumped the EAG process and the policy window remained closed, stalling implementation. Our results reflect the dynamic nature of the policy process and the importance of timing. The results highlight the limits of rational policy making in the face of organisational and fiscal upheaval. Diabetes care is coming on to the agenda again in Ireland under the National Clinical Care Programme. This may represent the opening of a new policy window for diabetes services, the challenge will be maintaining momentum and interest in the absence of dedicated resources.

Ecological and economic analysis of poaching of the greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal.

PubMed

Poudyal, Mahesh; Rothley, Kristina; Knowler, Duncan

2009-10-01

Nepal's greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) faces serious threats from poaching. Poaching of these rhinos is a complex problem, influenced by such diverse factors as the price of rhino horn on the international market, local socioeconomic factors, and the population dynamics of the species. Few studies have attempted to address this complexity. In this study, we model the poaching and population dynamics of the one-horned rhinoceros within an integrated framework of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and legal dimensions. The poaching model for rhinos in Royal Chitwan National Park (RCNP) in Nepal is combined with the population model for the species within a simulation framework and explored under various alternative policy scenarios with differing external socioeconomic and political conditions as well as internal policy response. We predict that, under the current (2003-2005) rhino conservation strategy, poaching would continue to be a major threat to the rhino population in RCNP. Furthermore, the internal policy response must begin to consider external factors such as socioeconomic conditions within the park buffer zone to be more effective in the long run. Finally, we find that, for long-run control, antipoaching policies should be directed at increasing the opportunity costs of poaching by creating better alternative economic opportunities, and at antipoaching enforcement.

Energy Technology Allocation for Distributed Energy Resources: A Technology-Policy Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallikarjun, Sreekanth

Distributed energy resources (DER) are emerging rapidly. New engineering technologies, materials, and designs improve the performance and extend the range of locations for DER. In contrast, constructing new or modernizing existing high voltage transmission lines for centralized generation are expensive and challenging. In addition, customer demand for reliability has increased and concerns about climate change have created a pull for swift renewable energy penetration. In this context, DER policy makers, developers, and users are interested in determining which energy technologies to use to accommodate different end-use energy demands. We present a two-stage multi-objective strategic technology-policy framework for determining the optimal energy technology allocation for DER. The framework simultaneously considers economic, technical, and environmental objectives. The first stage utilizes a Data Envelopment Analysis model for each end-use to evaluate the performance of each energy technology based on the three objectives. The second stage incorporates factor efficiencies determined in the first stage, capacity limitations, dispatchability, and renewable penetration for each technology, and demand for each end-use into a bottleneck multi-criteria decision model which provides the Pareto-optimal energy resource allocation. We conduct several case studies to understand the roles of various distributed energy technologies in different scenarios. We construct some policy implications based on the model results of set of case studies.

Dependence of the Firearm-Related Homicide Rate on Gun Availability: A Mathematical Analysis

PubMed Central

Wodarz, Dominik; Komarova, Natalia L.

2013-01-01

In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data. PMID:23923062

SD simulation study on degraded farmland policy on farming-pastoral area under the constrains of water resources-Taking Tongliao City of Inner Mongolia as example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, D. P.; Zhao, B.; Li, T. S.; Zhu, J. W.; Yu, M. M.

2017-08-01

Water resources are the primary factor in restricting the sustainable development of farming-pastoral regions. To support the sustainable development of water resources, whether or not the land uses patterns of farming-pastoral areas is a reasonably important issue. This paper takes Tongliao city as example for the purpose of sustainably developing the farming-pastoral area in the north. Several scientific preductions and evaluations were conducted to study the farming-pastoral landuse pattern, which is the key problem that effects sustainable development of farming-pastoral areas. The paper then proposes that 1:7 landuse pattern is suitable for the sustainable development of farming-pastotal area. Based on the analysis of the research findings on sustainable development of farming-pastoral area, the paper established a suitability evaluation indicators system of degraded farmland policies in Tongliao city, and used an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to determine the weight to run system dynamic (SD) model. The simulation results were then obtained on social economic ecological development in Tongliao city under different degraded farmland policies, and used the comprehensive evaluation model to optimize the results. It is concluded that stabilizing the policy of degraded farmland policy is the preferential policy in Tongliao, which provides useful theoretical research for the sustainable development of farming-pastoral area.

The policy effects of feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standard: A case study of China's waste incineration power industry.

PubMed

Xin-Gang, Zhao; Yu-Zhuo, Zhang; Ling-Zhi, Ren; Yi, Zuo; Zhi-Gong, Wu

2017-10-01

Among the regulatory policies, feed-in tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are the most popular to promote the development of renewable energy power industry. They can significantly contribute to the expansion of domestic industrial activities in terms of sustainable energy. This paper uses system dynamics (SD) to establish models of long-term development of China's waste incineration power industry under FIT and RPS schemes, and provides a case study by using scenario analysis method. The model, on the one hand, not only clearly shows the complex logical relationship between the factors but also assesses policy effects of the two policy tools in the development of the industry. On the other hand, it provides a reference for scholars to study similar problems in different countries, thereby facilitating an understanding of waste incineration power's long-term sustainable development pattern under FIT and RPS schemes, and helping to provide references for policy-making institutions. The results show that in the perfect competitive market, the implementation of RPS can promote long-term and rapid development of China's waste incineration power industry given the constraints and actions of the mechanisms of RPS quota proportion, the TGC valid period, and fines, compared with FIT. At the end of the paper, policy implications are offered as references for the government. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teacher Perceptions of Multilevel Policies and the Influence on Nutrition Education in North Carolina Head Start Preschools.

PubMed

Peterson, Amanda D; Goodell, L Suzanne; Hegde, Archana; Stage, Virginia C

2017-05-01

To develop a theory that explains the process of how teachers' perception of multilevel policies may influence nutrition education (NE) teaching strategies in Head Start preschools. Semistructured telephone interviews. North Carolina Head Start preschools. Thirty-two Head Start teachers. All interviews were transcribed verbatim. Following a grounded theory approach, authors coded interview data for emergent themes. Two primary themes emerged during analysis, including teachers' policy perceptions and teacher-perceived influence of policy on NE. A theoretical model was developed to explain how teachers' perceptions of policies influenced NE (eg, teaching strategies) in the classroom. Teachers discussed multiple policy areas governing their classrooms and limiting their ability to provide meaningful and consistent NE. How teachers perceived the level of regulation in the classroom (ie, high or low) influenced the frequency with which they used specific teaching strategies. Despite federal policies supporting the provision of NE, teachers face competing priorities in the classroom (eg, school readiness vs NE) and policies may conflict with standardized NE curricula. To understand how Head Start centers develop local policies, additional research should investigate how administrators interpret federal and state policies. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Communicating uncertainties in earth sciences in view of user needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vries, Wim; Kros, Hans; Heuvelink, Gerard

2014-05-01

Uncertainties are inevitable in all results obtained in the earth sciences, regardless whether these are based on field observations, experimental research or predictive modelling. When informing decision and policy makers or stakeholders, it is important that these uncertainties are also communicated. In communicating results, it important to apply a "Progressive Disclosure of Information (PDI)" from non-technical information through more specialised information, according to the user needs. Generalized information is generally directed towards non-scientific audiences and intended for policy advice. Decision makers have to be aware of the implications of the uncertainty associated with results, so that they can account for it in their decisions. Detailed information on the uncertainties is generally intended for scientific audiences to give insight in underlying approaches and results. When communicating uncertainties, it is important to distinguish between scientific results that allow presentation in terms of probabilistic measures of uncertainty and more intrinsic uncertainties and errors that cannot be expressed in mathematical terms. Examples of earth science research that allow probabilistic measures of uncertainty, involving sophisticated statistical methods, are uncertainties in spatial and/or temporal variations in results of: • Observations, such as soil properties measured at sampling locations. In this case, the interpolation uncertainty, caused by a lack of data collected in space, can be quantified by e.g. kriging standard deviation maps or animations of conditional simulations. • Experimental measurements, comparing impacts of treatments at different sites and/or under different conditions. In this case, an indication of the average and range in measured responses to treatments can be obtained from a meta-analysis, summarizing experimental findings between replicates and across studies, sites, ecosystems, etc. • Model predictions due to uncertain model parameters (parametric variability). These uncertainties can be quantified by uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation methods. Examples of intrinsic uncertainties that generally cannot be expressed in mathematical terms are errors or biases in: • Results of experiments and observations due to inadequate sampling and errors in analyzing data in the laboratory and even in data reporting. • Results of (laboratory) experiments that are limited to a specific domain or performed under circumstances that differ from field circumstances. • Model structure, due to lack of knowledge of the underlying processes. Structural uncertainty, which may cause model inadequacy/ bias, is inherent in model approaches since models are approximations of reality. Intrinsic uncertainties often occur in an emerging field where ongoing new findings, either experiments or field observations of new model findings, challenge earlier work. In this context, climate scientists working within the IPCC have adopted a lexicon to communicate confidence in their findings, ranging from "very high", "high", "medium", "low" and "very low" confidence. In fact, there are also statistical methods to gain insight in uncertainties in model predictions due to model assumptions (i.e. model structural error). Examples are comparing model results with independent observations or a systematic intercomparison of predictions from multiple models. In the latter case, Bayesian model averaging techniques can be used, in which each model considered gets an assigned prior probability of being the 'true' model. This approach works well with statistical (regression) models, but extension to physically-based models is cumbersome. An alternative is the use of state-space models in which structural errors are represent as (additive) noise terms. In this presentation, we focus on approaches that are relevant at the science - policy interface, including multiple scientific disciplines and policy makers with different subject areas. Approaches to communicate uncertainties in results of observations or model predictions are discussed, distinguishing results that include probabilistic measures of uncertainty and more intrinsic uncertainties. Examples concentrate on uncertainties in nitrogen (N) related environmental issues, including: • Spatio-temporal trends in atmospheric N deposition, in view of the policy question whether there is a declining or increasing trend. • Carbon response to N inputs to terrestrial ecosystems, based on meta-analysis of N addition experiments and other approaches, in view of the policy relevance of N emission control. • Calculated spatial variations in the emissions of nitrous-oxide and ammonia, in view of the need of emission policies at different spatial scales. • Calculated N emissions and losses by model intercomparisons, in view of the policy need to apply no-regret decisions with respect to the control of those emissions.