Science.gov

Sample records for polymeric early-warning fire-alarm

  1. Fabrication and evaluation of polymeric early-warning fire-alarm devices. [combustion products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Senturia, S. D.

    1975-01-01

    The electrical resistivities were investigated of some polymers known to be enhanced by the presence of certain gases. This was done to make a device capable of providing early warning to fire through its response with the gases produced in the early phases of combustion. Eight polymers were investigated: poly(phenyl acetylene), poly(p-aminophenyl acetylene), poly(p-nitrophenyl acetylene), poly(p-formamidophenyl acetylene), poly(ethynyl ferrocene), poly(ethynyl carborane), poly(ethynyl pyridine), and the polymer made from 1,2,3,6 tetramethyl pyridazine. A total of 40 usable thin-film sandwich devices and a total of 70 usable interdigitated-electrode lock-and-key devices were fabricated. The sandwich devices were used for measurements of contact linearity, polymer conductivity, and polymer dielectric constant. The lock-and-key devices were used to determine the response of the polymers to a spectrum of gases that included ammonia, carbon nonoxide, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ethylene, acrolein, water vapor, and normal laboratory air. Strongest responses were to water vapor, ammonia, and acrolein, and depending on the polymer, weaker responses to carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide were observed. A quantitative theory of device operation, capable of accounting for observed device leakage current and sensitivity, was developed. A prototype detection/alarm system was designed and built for use in demonstrating sensor performance.

  2. Charge-flow structures as polymeric early-warning fire alarm devices. M.S. Thesis; [metal oxide semiconductors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sechen, C. M.; Senturia, S. D.

    1977-01-01

    The charge-flow transistor (CFT) and its applications for fire detection and gas sensing were investigated. The utility of various thin film polymers as possible sensing materials was determined. One polymer, PAPA, showed promise as a relative humidity sensor; two others, PFI and PSB, were found to be particularly suitable for fire detection. The behavior of the charge-flow capacitor, which is basically a parallel-plate capacitor with a polymer-filled gap in the metallic tip electrode, was successfully modeled as an RC transmission line. Prototype charge-flow transistors were fabricated and tested. The effective threshold voltage of this metal oxide semiconductor was found to be dependent on whether surface or bulk conduction in the thin film was dominant. Fire tests with a PFI-coated CFT indicate good sensitivity to smouldering fires.

  3. Fire alarm system

    SciTech Connect

    Koehling, E.

    1995-01-01

    This test procedure is the documentation for the testing of the 4 fire alarm bells which rewired during the remodeling of the Emergency Operations Center in the Richland, Washington, Federal Office Building.

  4. Fire alarm system improvement

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, S.G.

    1994-10-01

    This document contains the Fire Alarm System Test Procedure for Building 234-5Z, 200-West Area on the Hanford Reservation, Richland, Washington. This Acceptance Test Procedure (ATP) has been prepared to demonstrate that the modifications to the Fire Protection systems function as required by project criteria. The ATP will test the Fire Alarm Control Panels, Flow Alarm Pressure Switch, Heat Detectors, Smoke Detectors, Flow Switches, Manual Pull Stations, and Gong/Door by Pass Switches.

  5. FIRE ALARM SYSTEM OUTDATED.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    CHANDLER, L.T.

    AN EFFICIENT FIRE ALARM SYSTEM SHOULD--(1) PROVIDE WARNING OF FIRES THAT START IN HIDDEN OR UNOCCUPIED LOCATIONS, (2) INDICATE WHERE THE FIRE IS, (3) GIVE ADVANCE WARNING TO FACULTY AND ADMINISTRATION SO THAT PANIC AND CONFUSION CAN BE AVOIDED AND ORDERLY EVACUATION OCCUR, (4) AUTOMATICALLY NOTIFY CITY FIRE HEADQUARTERS OF THE FIRE, (5) OPERATE BY…

  6. FIRE ALARM SYSTEM OUTDATED.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    CHANDLER, L.T.

    AN EFFICIENT FIRE ALARM SYSTEM SHOULD--(1) PROVIDE WARNING OF FIRES THAT START IN HIDDEN OR UNOCCUPIED LOCATIONS, (2) INDICATE WHERE THE FIRE IS, (3) GIVE ADVANCE WARNING TO FACULTY AND ADMINISTRATION SO THAT PANIC AND CONFUSION CAN BE AVOIDED AND ORDERLY EVACUATION OCCUR, (4) AUTOMATICALLY NOTIFY CITY FIRE HEADQUARTERS OF THE FIRE, (5) OPERATE BY…

  7. Talking Fire Alarms Calm Kids.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Executive Educator, 1984

    1984-01-01

    The new microprocessor-based fire alarm systems can help to control smoke movement throughout school buildings by opening vents and doors, identify the burning section, activate voice alarms, provide firefighters with telephone systems during the fire, and release fire-preventing gas. (KS)

  8. Talking Fire Alarms Calm Kids.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Executive Educator, 1984

    1984-01-01

    The new microprocessor-based fire alarm systems can help to control smoke movement throughout school buildings by opening vents and doors, identify the burning section, activate voice alarms, provide firefighters with telephone systems during the fire, and release fire-preventing gas. (KS)

  9. 46 CFR 130.470 - Fire alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Fire alarms. 130.470 Section 130.470 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS VESSEL CONTROL, AND MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEMS Automation of Unattended Machinery Spaces § 130.470 Fire alarms. (a)...

  10. 46 CFR 130.470 - Fire alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Fire alarms. 130.470 Section 130.470 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS VESSEL CONTROL, AND MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEMS Automation of Unattended Machinery Spaces § 130.470 Fire alarms. (a)...

  11. 46 CFR 130.470 - Fire alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Fire alarms. 130.470 Section 130.470 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS VESSEL CONTROL, AND MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEMS Automation of Unattended Machinery Spaces § 130.470 Fire alarms. (a)...

  12. 46 CFR 130.470 - Fire alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Fire alarms. 130.470 Section 130.470 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS VESSEL CONTROL, AND MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEMS Automation of Unattended Machinery Spaces § 130.470 Fire alarms. (a)...

  13. 46 CFR 130.470 - Fire alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fire alarms. 130.470 Section 130.470 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS VESSEL CONTROL, AND MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEMS Automation of Unattended Machinery Spaces § 130.470 Fire alarms. (a)...

  14. 8. INTERIOR, FIRE ALARM CONTROL ROOM (NORTH OF MAIN GARAGE), ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    8. INTERIOR, FIRE ALARM CONTROL ROOM (NORTH OF MAIN GARAGE), FROM ENTRYWAY, LOOKING NORTH, SHOWING ADDITIONAL 'GAMEWELL' FIRE ALARM SYSTEMS. - Oakland Naval Supply Center, Firehouse, East of Fourth Street, between A & B Streets, Oakland, Alameda County, CA

  15. 46 CFR 161.002-12 - Manual fire alarm systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Manual fire alarm systems. 161.002-12 Section 161.002-12...: SPECIFICATIONS AND APPROVAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT Fire-Protective Systems § 161.002-12 Manual fire alarm systems. (a) General. A manual fire alarm system shall consist of a power supply, a control unit on which...

  16. 46 CFR 161.002-12 - Manual fire alarm systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Manual fire alarm systems. 161.002-12 Section 161.002-12...: SPECIFICATIONS AND APPROVAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT Fire-Protective Systems § 161.002-12 Manual fire alarm systems. (a) General. A manual fire alarm system shall consist of a power supply, a control unit on which are...

  17. 46 CFR 161.002-12 - Manual fire alarm systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Manual fire alarm systems. 161.002-12 Section 161.002-12...: SPECIFICATIONS AND APPROVAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT Fire-Protective Systems § 161.002-12 Manual fire alarm systems. (a) General. A manual fire alarm system shall consist of a power supply, a control unit on which are...

  18. 46 CFR 161.002-12 - Manual fire alarm systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Manual fire alarm systems. 161.002-12 Section 161.002-12...: SPECIFICATIONS AND APPROVAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT Fire-Protective Systems § 161.002-12 Manual fire alarm systems. (a) General. A manual fire alarm system shall consist of a power supply, a control unit on which are...

  19. 46 CFR 161.002-12 - Manual fire alarm systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Manual fire alarm systems. 161.002-12 Section 161.002-12...: SPECIFICATIONS AND APPROVAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT Fire-Protective Systems § 161.002-12 Manual fire alarm systems. (a) General. A manual fire alarm system shall consist of a power supply, a control unit on which...

  20. Synthesis and evaluation of polymers for use in early warning fire alarm devices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byrd, N. R.; Sheratte, M. B.

    1975-01-01

    Conjugated polyacetylene polymers and one condensation polyene, all containing a high degree of conjugated unsaturation, were synthesized. These polymers were characterized by chemical analysis and by thermogravimetric analysis, as well as for their film-forming capability and gas/polymer interactions. It was found that those that had a high degree of conjugated unsaturation and had resonance - stabilizing groups were very thermally stable to 200 C, e.g., poly(dicyanoacetylene), poly(ethynylferrocene) and poly(phenylacetylene); while those with labile moieties, such as poly(p-formamidophenylacetylene), among others, suffered some degradation when heated in air. When subjected to gas/polymer interaction effects, the greatest change in electrical conductance was observed when ammonia was used as the gas and poly(p-nitrophenylacetylene) was the detector. Other polymers showed similar behavior. For example, poly(ethynylcarborane), considered to be an electron acceptor also showed a change in electrical conductance when exposed to ammonia, while poly(ethynylpyridine) and poly(ethylidenepyridazine) responded to carbon monoxide. However, for "fire gases" (gases from smoldering cotton), poly(ethynylferrocene) was the most responsive. Thus, the concept of polymers with different electronegativities forming charge-transfer complexes with different gases was found to be operable.

  1. Northwest side, northeast part, looking southeast, note fire alarm box ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Northwest side, northeast part, looking southeast, note fire alarm box at right - Mare Island Naval Shipyard, Guard House & Barracks, Railroad Avenue near Eighteenth Street, Vallejo, Solano County, CA

  2. 1. Photographic copy of fire alarm plan for Control and ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    1. Photographic copy of fire alarm plan for Control and Recording Center Building 4221/E-22, showing layout of rooms. California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Plant Engineering 'Edwards Test Station, Fire Alarm Plan, Bldg. E-22,' drawing no. EFA/11-1, December 15, 1961. - Jet Propulsion Laboratory Edwards Facility, Control & Recording Center, Edwards Air Force Base, Boron, Kern County, CA

  3. Research on the fire alarming system of fiber grating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Yaobin

    2007-09-01

    The application of fiber grating sensing technology in fire alarming based on temperature detection has the advantages of high accuracy, high reliability and strong immunity from electronic and magnetic fields. It is especially advantageous to use this system in the petroleum and chemistry industry because it can provide an extraordinary safe means for the fire alarm. But due to the traditional optical Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) technology is limited by the optic source bandwidth, the number of its multiplexing points is few. In this paper WDM technology will be developed mixing with Identified Bragg, which is called Identified and Wavelength Multiplexing, to build the Fiber Grating (FBG) fire alarm system integrated with computers. Some technologies applied in fire alarming system of fiber grating such as the transmission of test signals which pass through modulate and demodulate, the disposal of software system, the output of control signal and the strong ability of anti-disturbance have been studied and discussed.

  4. Detail of fire alarm boxes located adjacent to the entrance ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Detail of fire alarm boxes located adjacent to the entrance of the northwest wing - Mare Island Naval Shipyard, Guard House & Barracks, Railroad Avenue near Eighteenth Street, Vallejo, Solano County, CA

  5. 5. DETAIL VIEW OF OLD, PUNCHTYPE MASTER FIRE ALARM SYSTEM, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    5. DETAIL VIEW OF OLD, PUNCH-TYPE MASTER FIRE ALARM SYSTEM, LOCATED ON S WALL OF ENGINE STORAGE ROOM; LOOKING S. (Ceronie and Ryan) - Watervliet Arsenal, Building No. 22, Westervelt Avenue & Buffington Street, Watervliet, Albany County, NY

  6. 124. FIRE ALARM SYSTEM PANEL AT WEST SIDE OF SOUTH ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    124. FIRE ALARM SYSTEM PANEL AT WEST SIDE OF SOUTH WALL, TRANSFORMER ROOM (112), LSB (BLDG. 770) - Vandenberg Air Force Base, Space Launch Complex 3, Launch Pad 3 West, Napa & Alden Roads, Lompoc, Santa Barbara County, CA

  7. 18. DETAIL VIEW OF FIRE ALARM SYSTEM BOARD THAT LISTS ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    18. DETAIL VIEW OF FIRE ALARM SYSTEM BOARD THAT LISTS AREAS IN SHOPS COMPLEX. - Baltimore & Ohio Railroad, Mount Clare Shops, South side of Pratt Street between Carey & Poppleton Streets, Baltimore, Independent City, MD

  8. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

    PubMed

    Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  9. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    PubMed Central

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  10. Soviet early warning satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, G. E.

    1982-02-01

    Satellite orbits and groups for the Cosmos spacecraft are discussed, noting that the orbits are configured to provide full early warning system coverage. The regular crossing of a ground track which includes all the Minuteman bases in the U.S. is noted, as are time constraints for the launch into a suitable orbit without introducing orbital anomalies. Cosmos 1024 was observed to need four corrections in order to reach a point where free libration over a fixed ground station was possible for a year until replacement by the Cosmos 1124 occurred. The current configuration is a total of nine satellites with 40 deg spacing, which yields full coverage, although it is indicated that only three satellites ever operate simultaneously.

  11. Early Warning and the Tank

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-06-01

    recharge the batteries. Naturally, this makes the tank more detectable. THE PEWS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM U.S. tank platoons currently have one Platoon... Early Warning System ( PEWS ) per platoon. These con- tain 10 seismic sensors which can be placed a kilometer or so foreward. A panel of lights indicates...BRL-.MR-3’E i" MEMORANDUM REPORT BRL-MR-3767 ’B𔃽BRL EARLY WARNING AND THE TANK FRED L. BUNN s IN JUN 16 1989 " JUNE 1989 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

  12. Cyber Early Warning System (CEWAS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-03-01

    AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2006-103 Final Technical Report March 2006 CYBER EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (CEWAS) Telcordia Technologies...ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE MARCH 2006 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Final Aug 04 – Dec 06 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE CYBER EARLY WARNING ...that are in their initial stages or in progress. 4 The Enhanced InFilter system has the capability to provide early notification of cyber

  13. False Fire Alarms: A Deviant Pattern of Seeking Help.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Camblin, Louise; Weinland, Laura

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the phenomenon of false fire alarms, the deliberate, intentional false reporting of fires, by mentally troubled persons as a primitive kind of help-seeking behavior. Several common themes found by reviewing false alarm cases are presented. Suggests that identifying the intrapsychic dynamics of false alarm reporters could be useful in…

  14. The double slit experiment and the time reversed fire alarm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halabi, Tarek

    2011-03-01

    When both slits of the double slit experiment are open, closing one paradoxically increases the detection rate at some points on the detection screen. Feynman famously warned that temptation to "understand" such a puzzling feature only draws us into blind alleys. Nevertheless, we gain insight into this feature by drawing an analogy between the double slit experiment and a time reversed fire alarm. Much as closing the slit increases probability of a future detection, ruling out fire drill scenarios, having heard the fire alarm, increases probability of a past fire (using Bayesian inference). Classically, Bayesian inference is associated with computing probabilities of past events. We therefore identify this feature of the double slit experiment with a time reversed thermodynamic arrow. We believe that much of the enigma of quantum mechanics is simply due to some variation of time's arrow.

  15. Malaria early warning in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Hay, S I; Rogers, D J; Shanks, G D; Myers, M F; Snow, R W

    2001-02-01

    Kenya displays large spatiotemporal diversity in its climate and ecology. It follows that malaria transmission will reflect this environmental heterogeneity in both space and time. In this article, we discuss how such heterogeneity, and its epidemiological consequences, should be considered in the development of early warning systems for malaria epidemics.

  16. Malaria early warning in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Rogers, David J.; Shanks, G. Dennis; Myers, Monica F.; Snow, Robert W.

    2011-01-01

    Kenya displays large spatiotemporal diversity in its climate and ecology. It follows that malaria transmission will reflect this environmental heterogeneity in both space and time. In this article, we discuss how such heterogeneity, and its epidemiological consequences, should be considered in the development of early warning systems for malaria epidemics. PMID:11228016

  17. Early warning system for aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

    1994-01-01

    A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

  18. Project 93L-EWL-097, fire alarm system improvements, 300 Area

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.V.

    1995-01-01

    This document contains the Acceptance Test Procedure (ATP) which will demonstrate that the modifications to the Fire Protection systems in the 338 Building function as intended. The ATP will test the fire alarm control panel, flow alarm pressure switch, post indicator valve tamper switch, heat detectors, flow switches, and fire alarm signaling devices.

  19. The Politics of Legislative Evaluations: Benefits to "Fire-Alarm" Oversight.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wohlstetter, Priscilla

    Evaluation practices used by state legislatures to monitor educational reform are analyzed in this paper, which focuses on the link between politics and choice of oversight strategies and evaluation methods. Two oversight strategies are compared--"police-patrol" and "fire-alarm.""Fire-alarm" oversight involves…

  20. Thermoelectric Generator Used in Fire-Alarm Temperature Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Wenchang; Du, Zhengliang; Cui, Jiaolin; Shi, Zhongtao; Deng, Yuan

    2015-06-01

    Here we present a thermoelectric (TE) generator used in fire-alarm temperature sensing. The TE module, a core component of this generator, has a sandwich-like structure consisting of a Cu/Sn95Ag5/coated Ni/sprayed Ni/TE/sprayed Ni/coated Ni/Sn95Ag5/Cu multilayer that exhibits a low internal resistance of 5.5 Ω to 5.9 Ω and a contact resistance of 0.51 Ω to 0.91 Ω at room temperature (RT), enabling the TE generator to attain an open-circuit voltage ( V op) of 1.50 V at RT and 2.97 V at ~90°C. Moreover, its maximum output power ( p max) was estimated to be 11.6 mW and 428.7 mW, respectively, for a temperature difference (Δ T) of 9.3°C and 52.9°C. These values are comparable to those for the bulk TE generator developed by Thermonamic. According to these figures, we obtain corresponding power densities of ~7.25 × 103 nW/mm2 and 2.68 × 105 nW/mm2, respectively. Although there is still much room to improve the performance of the generator when the source temperature rises above 90°C, the output voltages and maximum output powers attained in the current testing conditions are large enough to drive small electronic devices such as fire-alarm systems etc. Therefore, it is believed that the fabrication technology and designed structure of the generator are appropriate for such applications.

  1. Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

  2. Earthquake early warning performance tests for Istanbul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köhler, N.; Wenzel, F.; Erdik, M.; Alcik, H.; Mert, A.

    2009-04-01

    The Marmara Region is the most densily populated region in Turkey. The greater area of the mega-city Istanbul inhabits about 14 million people. The city is located in the direct vicinity of the Main Marmara Fault, a dextral strike-slip fault system intersecting the Sea of Marmara, which is the western continuation of the North Anatolian Fault [Le Pichon et al., 2001]. Its closest distance to the city of Istanbul ranges between 15 and 20 km. Recent estimates by Parsons [2004] give a probability of more than 40% of a M ≥ 7 earthquake that will affect Istanbul within the next 30 years. Due to this high seismic risk, earthquake early warning is an important task in disaster management and seismic risk reduction, increasing the safety of millions of people living in and around Istanbul and reducing economic losses. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) includes a set of 10 strong-motion sensors used for early warning which are installed between Istanbul and the Main Marmara Fault. The system works on the exceedance of amplitude thresholds, whereas three alarm levels are defined at three different thresholds [Erdik et al., 2003]. In the context of the research project EDIM (Earthquake Disaster Information System for the Marmara Region, Turkey), the early warning network is planned to be extended by an additional set of 10 strong-motion sensors installed around the Sea of Marmara to include the greater Marmara Region into the early warning process. We present performance tests of both the existing and the planned extended early warning network using ground motion simulations for 280 synthetic earthquakes along the Main Marmara Fault with moment magnitudes between 4.5 and 7.5. We apply the amplitude thresholds of IERREWS, as well as, for comparison, an early warning algorithm based on artificial neural networks which estimates hypocentral location and magnitude of the occurring earthquake. The estimates are updated continuously with

  3. Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems Clear Air ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

  4. Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Clear Air Force Station, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Ballistic Missile Early Warning System - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

  5. The Role of Social Influence on How Residence Hall Inhabitants Respond to Fire Alarms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leytem, Michael; Stark, Emily

    2016-01-01

    College resident halls pose a threat for a catastrophic event in the case of fire, but little research has examined potential influences on students' responses to fire alarms, particularly the role of social influence in affecting their behaviors. In the current study, residence hall inhabitants reported their knowledge about fire safety, their…

  6. Teaching Adults with Severe and Profound Retardation to Exit Their Homes upon Hearing the Fire Alarm.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bannerman, Diane J.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Prompting, modeling, and differential reinforcement were used to teach three nonverbal adults with severe to profound mental retardation to exit their group homes at the sound of the house fire alarm. All three learned to exit independently in less than two minutes in all or the majority of surprise fire drills. (Author/JDD)

  7. Effects of a fire alarm strobe light on fecal corticosterone metabolite concentrations in mice.

    PubMed

    Godfrey, Denice; Silverman, Jerald

    2009-02-01

    The type and location of fire alarms are important considerations in animal facility design. The Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals recommends minimizing animal exposure to such alarms. Nevertheless, it is often necessary to maintain fire alarms within animal housing or procedural areas. The authors exposed male mice to the flashing strobe light component of a standard fire alarm and evaluated mouse fecal corticosterone concentration, which is known to be an indicator of stress. Mice were exposed to the strobe light for 5 min during either the light or the dark phase of the light:dark cycle. The authors collected fecal samples every 6 h for 24 h before exposing mice to the alarm and every 6 h for 24 h after exposure. Fecal samples taken before exposure (baseline samples) showed a normal circadian pattern of corticosterone metabolite excretion. In fecal samples taken after mice were exposed to the fire alarm, metabolite concentrations did not significantly differ from baseline concentrations over time.

  8. Environmental Early Warning Systems (EEWS): Equation Writer’s Manual.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-07-01

    Construction Engineenng July 1986 Research Laboratory "Environmental Early Warning System" Envirrnmental Early Warning Systems (EEWS): Equation...that generate the results displayed on the Environmental Early Warning Sys terns (EEWS). EEWS.,eswdevelopedjby the U.S. Army Construction Engineeri...ACCESSION NO. 3. RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER CERL-TR-N-86/ 14I 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED ENVIRONMENTAL EARLY WARNING

  9. Early Warning and Prediction of Interest Attacks and Exploits

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-09-01

    EARLY WARNING AND PREDICTION OF INTERNET ATTACKS AND EXPLOITS THESIS Brian P. Zeitz... EARLY WARNING AND PREDICTION OF INTERNET ATTACKS AND EXPLOITS THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Electrical and Computer...RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED iv AFIT/GIA/ENG/05-06 EARLY WARNING AND PREDICTION OF INTERNET ATTACKS AND EXPLOITS

  10. A survey of early warning technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, G.D.; Arlowe, H.D.; Williams, J.D.

    1995-07-01

    This paper presents a survey of technologies useful in providing early warning in physical security systems. Early warning is important in virtually all types of security systems whether they are used for temporary (tactical, portable, or semi-permanent) applications, border warning, fixed-site detection, or standoff surveillance detection. With the exception of the standoff surveillance detection systems, all systems discussed in this paper usually involve a moving target. The fact that a person(s) to be detected in a standoff surveillance scenario is not moving presents challenging problems and requires different applications of technology. The technologies commonly used to detect moving targets and some suggestions for detection of stationary targets are addressed in this paper.

  11. Early warning scores: unravelling detection and escalation.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gary B; Prytherch, David R; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to increase understanding of how patient deterioration is detected and how clinical care escalates when early warning score (EWS) systems are used. The authors critically review a recent National Early Warning Score paper published in IJHCQA using personal experience and EWS-related publications, and debate the difference between detection and escalation. Incorrect EWS choice or poorly understood EWS escalation may result in unnecessary workloads forward and responding staff. EWS system implementers may need to revisit their guidance materials; medical and nurse educators may need to expand the curriculum to improve EWS system understanding and use. The paper raises the EWS debate and alerts EWS users that scrutiny is required.

  12. Communication architecture of an early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angermann, M.; Guenther, M.; Wendlandt, K.

    2010-11-01

    This article discusses aspects of communication architecture for early warning systems (EWS) in general and gives details of the specific communication architecture of an early warning system against tsunamis. While its sensors are the "eyes and ears" of a warning system and enable the system to sense physical effects, its communication links and terminals are its "nerves and mouth" which transport measurements and estimates within the system and eventually warnings towards the affected population. Designing the communication architecture of an EWS against tsunamis is particularly challenging. Its sensors are typically very heterogeneous and spread several thousand kilometers apart. They are often located in remote areas and belong to different organizations. Similarly, the geographic spread of the potentially affected population is wide. Moreover, a failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Yet, the communication infrastructure is likely to be affected by the disaster itself. Based on an analysis of the criticality, vulnerability and availability of communication means, we describe the design and implementation of a communication system that employs both terrestrial and satellite communication links. We believe that many of the issues we encountered during our work in the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009) on the design and implementation communication architecture are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, we intend to share our insights and lessons learned.

  13. Benchmark of Romanian Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, A.; Ionescu, C.; Marmureanu, Gh.

    2009-04-01

    The deep earthquakes generated in Vrancea area are particularly of interest for many countries in Europe since they cause destructive effects at large distances from Moscow to Roma. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risks given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions and one of them is Early Warning System (EWS) for industrial facilities and other installations of national interest. The early warning system developed at National Institute for Earth Physics from Bucharest, Romania is a tool to shut down the dangerous industrial processes before strong earthquakes arrives. The early warning software permits us to minimize communication latencies present in other communication protocols and allows us a rapid magnitude determination for strong Vrancea earthquakes. This software was developed by us and is running in present at our institute. Our purpose was to rapidly avoid false alarms and to estimate earthquake magnitude in the first seconds after detection, taking into account a warning time around 25 seconds for Bucharest capital city. A modified STA/LTA detector and a voting scheme were used in the detection phase. The software was tested on nearly 3000 events recorded in the epicentre area at Muntele Rosu (MLR), Vrancioaia (VRI) and Plostina (PLOR) stations. The events that we used are all available events with magnitude ranging from Mw=1.9 and Mw=6.0. Also a simulation with continuous data recorded at the same stations since 2004 was carried out using the real time software modules. We obtained a relation between maximum acceleration of the P wave and magnitude which can be used in Vrancea to estimate rapidly the magnitude of earthquakes.

  14. Fire alarm system acceptance test procedure for Project W-164, Sample Equipment Cleaning Facility

    SciTech Connect

    McKenna, P.J.

    1995-04-17

    This Acceptance Test Procedure (ATP) has been prepared to demonstrate that the Fire Protection System functions as required by project criteria. The test results will be issued as an acceptance test report (ATR) after all testing is complete. Components that are covered by this procedure are the fire alarm control system, power transfer to battery backup, switching circuits, alarm input devices, and battery capacity and recharge capability. Bldg 6268 is part of the Effluent Treatment and Laboratory Project.

  15. SPIRALE: early warning optical space demonstrator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galindo, D.; Carucci, A.

    2004-11-01

    Thanks to its global coverage, its peacetime capabilities and its availability, ballistic missiles Early Warning (EW) space systems are identified as a key node of a global missile defence system. Since the Gulf war in 1991, several feasibility studies of such an Early Warning system have been conducted in France. The main conclusions are first that the most appropriate concept is to use infra-red (IR) sensors on geo- stationary orbit satellites and second that the required satellite performances are achievable and accessible to European industries, even if technological developments are necessary. Besides that, it was recommended to prepare the development of the EW operational system, by demonstrating its achievable performances on the basis of collected background images and available target IR signatures. This is the objective of the "EW optical space demonstrator", also named SPIRALE (this a French acronym which stands for "Preparatory IR Program for EW"). A contract has been awarded early 2004, by DGA/SPOTI (French Armament Procurement Agency), to EADS Astrium France, with a significant participation of Alcatel Space, to perform this demonstration.

  16. The Measurement of International Military Commitments for Crisis Early Warning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-09-01

    MEASUREMENT OF INTERNATIONAL MILITARY COMMITMENTS FOR CRISIS EARLY WARNING TR&A Technical Report #33 Threat Recognition and Analysis Project "Approved for...INTERNATIONAL MILITARY COMMITMENTS FOR CRISIS EARLY WARNING Wayne R. Martin California State College, Dominguez Hills International Relations Research...Institute August 1976 The scope of the crisis analysis problem is both wide and complex. It ranges from early - warning --which is concerned primarily with the

  17. Recruitment Early Warning System. Phase II. Volume 1. Research and Development of the Recruitment EWS (Early Warning System).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-09-30

    36? RECRUITMENT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM PHASE 11 VOLUME I / RESEARCH RND EELOPHE..U) ECONMIC RESEARCH LAS INC RSTM YAPGEENSTOM ET AL. 36 SEP 85 OMR-85...Recruitment Early Warning System, Phase II Final Report (unclassified) 12 PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Goldberg, Lawrencel Greenston, Peter; Hermansen, Sigurd...FIELD [GROUP SUB-GROUP manpower planning, early warning system, I N /A /A forecasting 𔄃 ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necesary and identify by block

  18. LIVE DEMONSTRATION OF DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Wächter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of earthquakes, for the monitoring of sea level, ocean floor events, and ground displacements. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems. The introductory part of the demonstration briefly explains the DEWS project, the CCUI in conjunction with operators’ workflow, the system architecture, details of information logistics and the virtual scenario of live demonstration. The live demonstration exhibits the CCUI on screen and the service

  19. Early Warning at the Gradenbach Mass Movement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienhart, Werner; Lang, Erich; Mertl, Stefan; Stary, Ulrike; Brückl, Ewald

    2013-04-01

    The Gradenbach mass movement (GMM) is an example of a deep seated gravitational slope deformation in the crystalline rocks of the Eastern Alps (12.85° E, 47.00° N). The main body of the GMM covers an area of 1.7km2 and comprises a volume of 0.12km3. The main scarp is located below the mountain crest at an elevation of 2235m. The toe is at 1200m elevation in the Gradenbach valley. The GMM became active during the second half of the 19th century according to historic documents. Quantitative data about the movement are available since 1962. Quasi-stationary phases of creep or slow sliding were interrupted by accelerations in 1965-1966, 1975, 2001, and 2009 yielding a total displacement of about 20m. The cumulative displacement during the high velocity phases was about 8m in 1965/66 and about 1m in 2001 and 2009. A transition to rapid and catastrophic sliding cannot be excluded during the acceleration phases in the future. The early warning system of the Gradenbach Observatory at the GMM consists of a geodetic, a hydro-meteorological, and a seismological component. The geodetic component comprises a GPS network with stations distributed over the whole GMM and two wire-extensometers recording the displacement at the toe of the landslide relative to the opposite slope. The GPS data are available in real time. The extensometer data are currently transmitted in weekly intervals. The hydro-meteorological component comprises the real time registration and data transmission of precipitation and temperature at one station on the GMM. The water equivalent of the snow cover is weekly determined at 15 profiles. Snow melt and infiltration into the GMM are estimated from this data. The hydrostatic water level is measured at two borehole gauges. A proxy of the hydrostatic water level at the surface of rupture is derived from the hydro-meteorological data and related to the velocity of the GMM by a power law. Investigations show that a variation of the hydrostatic water level at

  20. An examination of a prototype LED fire-alarm signaling appliance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curran, John W.; Keeney, Shawn P.

    2004-10-01

    Since the introduction of the Americans With Disabilities Act in 1990, the number of visual fire alarm signals installed in the United States has grown exponentially. Virtually all of these fire alarm visual signals consist of the Xenon gas flashtube type. This technology offers high intensity along with moderate cost in a relatively small package. Typical intensities offered range from 15cd (candela) up to 185cd. With the recent advances in solid state LEDs (Light Emitting Diodes) the possibility exists to develop visual fire signals using this technology. When used in lower intensity visual appliances, LEDs offer comparable light output with much smaller optical footprints (albeit at somewhat higher estimated costs). This paper will examine the optical performance of a prototype LED visual fire signaling appliance as compared to a more conventional device. It will also evaluate a series of tests, which were run in an office environment to compare the response time of workers for both the conventional Xenon fire signal appliance as well as the prototype LED device. Measurements for each test subject were taken over a two to three day period. Parameters measured included time of day, size of office and general ambient lighting. Results of these experiments indicate that the general response times of the test subjects were similar for the two types of fire signals. The paper concludes with a discussion of the potential for LED-type fire signaling devices as well as some of the potential technology obstacles still to be overcome.

  1. Early warning and crop condition assessment research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

  2. Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy.

    PubMed

    Boettiger, Carl; Hastings, Alan

    2012-12-07

    Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here, we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces--a statistical error often known as the prosecutor's fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false-positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than those more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

  3. Early warning and crop condition assessment research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

  4. Early warnings of heart rate deterioration.

    PubMed

    Almeida, Vania G; Nabney, Ian T

    2016-08-01

    Hospitals can experience difficulty in detecting and responding to early signs of patient deterioration leading to late intensive care referrals, excess mortality and morbidity, and increased hospital costs. Our study aims to explore potential indicators of physiological deterioration by the analysis of vital-signs. The dataset used comprises heart rate (HR) measurements from MIMIC II waveform database, taken from six patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and diagnosed with severe sepsis. Different indicators were considered: 1) generic early warning indicators used in ecosystems analysis (autocorrelation at-1-lag (ACF1), standard deviation (SD), skewness, kurtosis and heteroskedasticity) and 2) entropy analysis (kernel entropy and multi scale entropy). Our preliminary findings suggest that when a critical transition is approaching, the equilibrium state changes what is visible in the ACF1 and SD values, but also by the analysis of the entropy. Entropy allows to characterize the complexity of the time series during the hospital stay and can be used as an indicator of regime shifts in a patient's condition. One of the main problems is its dependency of the scale used. Our results demonstrate that different entropy scales should be used depending of the level of entropy verified.

  5. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  6. The Identification of Early Warning Signals Prior to Contractor Default

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-12-01

    AD-A262 828 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California ... , AP C THESIS f7° OmL THE IDENTIFICATION OF EARLY WARNING SIGNALS PRIOR TO CONTRACTOR...75.7 ESS (Cty State a nd Z/P Code) D- . £c .’,E ""O ". ", -.- I •. ’.:. ( " Include Security Classification) The identification of early warning ...objective of this thesis was to determine if there are systemic indicators that may provide early warning signals to contract administrators, during

  7. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  8. Rapid telemetry and earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R.; Bose, M.; Brown, H.; Cua, G.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Hellweg, M.; Jordan, T.; Kireev, A.; Maechling, P.; Neuhauser, D.; Oppenheimer, D.; Solanki, K.; Zeleznik, M.

    2008-05-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is currently testing algorithms for earthquake early warning on the realtime seismic systems in the state. An earthquake warning system rapidly detects the initiation of earthquakes and assesses the associated hazard. The goal is to provide warning of potentially damaging ground motion in a target region prior to the arrival of seismic waves. The network-based approach to early warning requires station data to be gathered at a central site for joint processing. ElarmS, one network-based approach being tested, currently runs 15 sec behind realtime in order to gather ~90% of station data before processing. Even with this delay the recent Mw 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San Jose was detected and an accurate hazard assessment was available before ground shaking in San Francisco. The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method, another network-based approach, is a Bayesian method that incorporates information such as network topology, previously observed seismicity, and the Gutenberg-Richter relationship in magnitude and location estimation. The VS method is currently being transitioned from off-line to real-time testing and will soon be running 15 sec behind real-time, as in the case of ElarmS. We are also testing an on-site warning approach, which is based on single-station observations. On-site systems can deliver earthquake information faster than regional systems, and the warning could possibly reach potential users at much closer epicentral distances before the damaging shaking starts. By definition, on-site systems do not require a central processing facility or delivery of data from a distant seismic station, but they are less robust that networked-based systems and need a fast and reliable telemetry to deliver warnings to local users. The range of possible warning times is typically seconds to tens of seconds and every second of data latency translates into an equal reduction in the available warning time. Minimal latency

  9. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  10. Early Warning Signals - conceptual limitations and opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bathiany, Sebastian; Claussen, Martin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Due to potentially large positive feedbacks in the climate system, the existence of tipping points is under debate. At these points, small changes in forcing can lead to abrupt climate change due to the destabilising feedbacks. In order to predict such abrupt changes or to distinguish changes in stability from random state transitions, it has been proposed to exploit statistical precursors of instabilities, also called early warning signals (EWS). However, we argue that the limitations of the underlying concept generally do not allow conclusions on the mechanism of abrupt changes without substantial physical knowledge - the burden of proof lies with the applier of EWS. We demonstrate these limitations with examples from vegetation dynamics and sea ice cover change in models of very different complexity. Apart from the practical problem of short and non-stationary time-series, statistical properties such as variance and autocorrelation usually change for reasons unrelated to the system's stability. In particular, it has to be known, how the natural variability (noise) in a system is caused and how it propagates through the system. A further fundamental limitation is imposed by the large number of spatial degrees of freedom. The benefit of EWS has only been shown in idealised systems of predefined spatial extent. In a more general context like a complex climate system model, the critical subsystem that exhibits a loss in stability (hotspot) and the critical mode of the transition may be unknown. An abrupt change can therefore come as a surprise. However, we suggest that EWS can be applied as a diagnostic tool to find the hotspot of a sudden transition and to distinguish this hotspot from regions experiencing an induced tipping. For this purpose we present a scheme which identifies a hotspot as a certain combination of grid cells which maximise an EWS. The method can provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on

  11. Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-01-01

    Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

  12. A cost effective FBG-based security fence with fire alarm function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, H. J.; Li, S. S.; Lu, X. L.; Wu, Y.; Rao, Y. J.

    2012-02-01

    Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) is sensitive to the temperature as well when it is measuring the strain change, which is always avoided in most measurement applications. However, in this paper strain/temperature dual sensitivity is utilized to construct a special security fence with a second function of fire threat prediction. In an FBG-based fiber fence configuration, only by characteristics analysis and identification method, it can intelligently distinguish the different effects of personal threats and fires from their different trends of the wavelength drifts. Thus without any additional temperature sensing fittings or other fire alarm systems integrated, a normal perimeter security system can possess a second function of fire prediction, which can not only monitor the intrusion induced by personal actions but also predict fire threats in advance. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the method.

  13. GPS Earthquake Early Warning in Cascadia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Webb, F.

    2011-12-01

    Over 400 GPS receivers of the combined PANGA and PBO networks currently operate along the Cascadia subduction zone, all of which are high-rate and telemetered in real-time. These receivers span the M9 megathrust, M7 crustal faults beneath population centers, several active Cascades volcanoes, and a host of other hazard sources, and together enable a host of new approaches towards hazards mitigation. Data from the majority of the stations is received in real time at CWU and processed into one-second position estimates using 1) relative positioning within several reference frames constrained by 2) absolute point positioning using streamed satellite orbit and clock corrections. While the former produces lower-noise time series, for earthquakes greater than ~M7 and ground displacements exceeding ~20 cm, point positioning alone is shown to provide very rapid and robust estimates of the location and amplitude of both dynamic strong ground motion and permanent deformation. The advantage of point-positioning over relative positioning for earthquake applications lies primarily in the fact that each station's position is estimated independently, without double-differencing, within a reference frame defined by earth's center of mass and the satellite orbits. Point positioning does not require a nearby stable reference station or network whose motion (such as during a seismic event) aliases directly into fictitious displacement of any station in question. Thus, for real-time GPS earthquake characterization, this is of great importance in ensuring a robust measurement. We are now producing real-time point-positions using GIPSY5 and corrections to broadcast satellite clocks and orbits streamed live from the DLR in Germany. We have also developed a stream-editor to flag and fix cycle-slips and other data problems on the fly prior to positioning. We are achieving < 3s latency and RMS scatter of under 4 cm. For use in earthquake early warning, we have developed estimation routines

  14. An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonry, John L.

    2011-01-01

    Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. It is not possible to detect all hazardous asteroids, and the efforts to detect them years before they strike are only advancing slowly. Similarly, ideas for mitigation of the danger from an impact by moving the asteroid are in their infancy. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. With enough warning, a small asteroid impact should not cause loss of life, and even portable property might be preserved. We describe an early warning system that could provide a week’s notice of most sizeable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This may be all the mitigation needed or desired for small asteroids, and it can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. This system, dubbed Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100 km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night. Software automatically registers a comparison with the unchanging sky and identifies everything that has moved or changed. Communications between the observatories lock down the orbits of anything approaching the Earth, within one night if its arrival is less than a week. The sensitivity of the system permits detection of 140 m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact and 50 m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accurate to a few kilometers and a few seconds. In addition to detecting and warning of approaching asteroids, ATLAS will continuously monitor the changing universe around us: most of the variable stars in our Galaxy, many microlensing events from stellar

  15. Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

    2003-12-01

    Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated

  16. Early warning of geohazards using space technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tronin, A.

    The societal impact of geological hazards is enormous. Every year volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and subsidence claim thousands of lives, injure many thousands more, devastate peoples' homes and destroy their livelihoods. The costs of damaged infrastructure are taken higher still by insurance premiums and run into the billions in any currency. This affects rich and poor alike, but with a disproportionate impact on the developing world. As the human population increases and more people live in hazardous areas, this impact grows unsustainably. It must be reduced and that requires increased understanding of the geohazards, improved preparedness for disasters and better ways to manage them when they occur. The inter-related disasters that comprise geohazards are all driven directly by geological processes and share ground deformation as a common thread. This means that they can be addressed using similar technology and understood using related scientific modelling processes. Geohazards are a complex phenomenon and no one method can provide all the necessary information and understanding. It is essential that Earth Observation data are integrated with airborne data, in-situ observations and associated historical data archives, and then analysed using GIS and other modelling tools if these hazards are to be understood and managed. Geohazards occur in one form or another in every country. They do not respect national boundaries and have the potential to cause changes in the atmosphere that will be truly global in effect, requiring a global observing infrastructure to monitor them. The current situation in space research of early warning of geohazards indicates a few phenomena, related with geohazard processes: Earth's deformation, surface temperature, gas and aerosol emission, electromagnetic disturbances in ionosphere. Both horizontal and vertical deformations scaled about tens centimetres and meters measured after the shock. Such deformations are recorded by In

  17. Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Taiwan (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y.

    2010-12-01

    The Taiwan region is characterized by a high shortening rate and a strong seismic activity. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) is responsible for the earthquake monitoring in Taiwan. The CWB seismic network consists of 71 real-time short-period seismic stations in Taiwan region for routinely earthquake monitoring and has recorded about 18,000 events each year in a roughly 400 km x 550 km region. There are 53 real-time broadband stations install for seismological research purposes and reporting moment tensor solution in Taiwan. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the CWB, earthquake rapid reporting and early warning systems have been developed in Taiwan. The network consists of 110 stations. For rapid reporting system, when a potentially felt earthquake occurs around the Taiwan area, the location, magnitude and shake map of seismic intensities can be automatically reported within about 40 to 60 sec. For large earthquakes, the shaking map and losses can be estimated within 2 min after the earthquake occurrence. For earthquake early warning system, earthquake information could be determined at about 15 to 20 sec after a large earthquake occurrence. Therefore, this system can provide early warning before the arrival of S-wave for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicenter. Recently, onsite earthquake early warning device is developed using MEMS sensor. It focuses on that to offer early warning for areas close to the epicenter.

  18. Obstetric early warning systems to prevent bad outcome.

    PubMed

    Quinn, Audrey Catherine; Meek, Tim; Waldmann, Carl

    2016-06-01

    Early warning scores, early warning systems and rapid response systems, were established in 1999. In the UK, a National Early Warning Score was launched in 2013 and is now used throughout the National Health Service. In 2007, a firm recommendation was made by the maternal confidential death enquiry that maternity units should incorporate a modified early obstetric warning score chart into clinical practice. Although there was enthusiastic uptake of this recommendation, local recording systems vary throughout the country and there is now a need to revisit revise and standardize an obstetric early warning system (ObsEWS). The intercollegiate Maternal Critical Care group of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association have produced an ObsEWS in line with the aggregate UK National Early Warning Score. Six physiological parameters are incorporated: respiratory rate, oxygen saturations, temperature, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse rate. However, robust physiological thresholds for the measured parameters are currently lacking but required for a more sensitive and specific ObsEWS. A greater focus and study on the management of maternal morbidity (in addition to mortality data) and the development of better systems within and across the multidisciplinary team to detect early deterioration should improve management of serious illness in obstetrics. It is imperative that we undertake robust ObsEWS and data collection, including electronic systems with research and evidence-based recommendations to underpin this system. This should improve patient safety and result in more efficient, cost-effective management of sicker patients in our complex modern healthcare systems.

  19. Early Warning Look Ahead Metrics: The Percent Milestone Backlog Metric

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shinn, Stephen A.; Anderson, Timothy P.

    2017-01-01

    All complex development projects experience delays and corresponding backlogs of their project control milestones during their acquisition lifecycles. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) teamed with The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) to develop a collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics that would provide GSFC leadership with some independent indication of the programmatic health of GSFC flight projects. As part of the collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics, the Percent Milestone Backlog metric is particularly revealing, and has utility as a stand-alone execution performance monitoring tool. This paper describes the purpose, development methodology, and utility of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric. The other four Early Warning Look Ahead metrics are also briefly discussed. Finally, an example of the use of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric in providing actionable insight is described, along with examples of its potential use in other commodities.

  20. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  1. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  2. [Early Warning Score in primary care in Denmark].

    PubMed

    Ammitzbøll, Ove; Maarslet, Lotte

    2015-06-22

    This study investigates the implementation of Early Warning Score in primary care. Infections such as pneumonia or urinary tract infections are more frequent in older age and mortality increases with age. Early diagnosis of such conditions is thus important. This study showed that Early Warning Score in primary care is adequate to trace elderly in need of medical assistance. At a score ≤ 2 24% were visited by a doctor or admitted directly. At a score ≥ 5 this number increased to 45%. At a score ≤ 5 11% were admitted to hospital and at a score ≥ 5 31% were admitted to hospital.

  3. [Early Warning Score in primary care in Denmark].

    PubMed

    Ammitzbøll, Ove; Maarslet, Lotte

    2014-10-06

    This study investigates the implementation of Early Warning Score in primary care. Infections such as pneumonia or urinary tract infections are more frequent in older age and mortality increases with age. Early diagnosis of such conditions is thus important. This study showed that Early Warning Score in primary care is adequate to trace elderly in need of medical assistance. At a score ≤ 2 24% were visited by a doctor or admitted directly. At a score ≥ 5 this number increased to 45%. At a score ≤ 5 11% were admitted to hospital and at a score ≥ 5 31% were admitted to hospital.

  4. The Cardiac Children's Hospital Early Warning Score (C-CHEWS).

    PubMed

    McLellan, Mary C; Connor, Jean A

    2013-04-01

    Inpatient pediatric cardiovascular patients have higher rates of cardiopulmonary arrests than other hospitalized children. Pediatric early warning scoring tools have helped to provide early identification and treatment to hospitalized children experiencing deterioration thus preventing arrests from occurring. However, the tools have rarely been used and have not been validated in the pediatric cardiac population. This paper describes the modification of a pediatric early warning scoring system for cardiovascular patients, the implementation of the tool, and its companion escalation of care algorithm on an inpatient pediatric cardiovascular unit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Locomotor effects of a low-frequency fire alarm on C57BL/6 male mice: a preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Povroznik, Jessica M; Faith, Robert E; Kessler, Matthew J; Ali, Frank N; Kosik, James; Prince, Stephen; Engler-Chiurazzi, Elizabeth B

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining appropriate acoustic conditions for animal welfare and data collection are crucial in biomedical research facilities. Negative impacts of disruptive sound are known and can include auditory damage, immune function changes, and behavioral alterations. One type of disruptive sound occurring in research facilities is that of fire alarms. To ameliorate this problem, many facilities have incorporated the use of low-frequency fire alarms that emit tones outside the rodent audible range. The impact of these devices has been assumed to be negligible. However, this has yet to be evaluated with controlled behavioral experiments. Thus, our objective was to investigate the impact of low-frequency fire alarm exposure on locomotor behavior in the open field, a test sensitive to acoustic stimuli disruption. Male mice were randomized to three alarm exposure groups (No-Alarm; Alarm-During; and Alarm-After) and placed in individual photobeam-activated locomotor chambers. The Alarm-During group displayed significantly reduced horizontal locomotion, with a trend towards reduced vertical locomotion. These data suggest that a low-frequency brief alarm tone can temporarily disrupt movement, a valuable insight should an alarm be deployed. Further, findings support close collaboration between researchers and institutional facility staff to ensure appropriate acoustic conditions are maintained, whenever possible, for research animals.

  6. ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

  7. The United Nations: Enhancing its Early-Warning Mechanism.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-03-01

    MISSIONS 8 WHAT MAKES-UP THE UN’S EARLY-WARNING MECHANISM 11 PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES 15 RECOMMENDATIONS 17 CONCLUSION 19 END NOTES 21 BIBLIOGRAPHY 23 v vi...and accurate information, leaders can make informed decisions which potentially could contribute to averting a regional crisis. 20 End Notes I

  8. Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns.

    PubMed

    Kéfi, Sonia; Guttal, Vishwesha; Brock, William A; Carpenter, Stephen R; Ellison, Aaron M; Livina, Valerie N; Seekell, David A; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H; Dakos, Vasilis

    2014-01-01

    A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

  9. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  10. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

    PubMed Central

    Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

    2014-01-01

    A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

  11. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  12. Evaluation of the Individualized Study Program: Early Warning System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunziker, Celeste M.

    The Early Warning System (EWS) of the Individualized Study Program (ISP) at the University of California, Davis, was evaluated. Disadvantaged students who have not met the university's entrance requirements are tracked by the EWS during their first year in order to identify academic problems and provide advising and support. Findings include: EWS…

  13. The Predictive Validity of the Early Warning System Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Evelyn; Semmelroth, Carrie

    2010-01-01

    The Early Warning System is a tool developed by the National High School Center to collect data on indicators including attendance, grade point average, course failures, and credits earned. These indicators have been found to be highly predictive of a student's likelihood of dropping out of high school in large, urban areas. The Early Warning…

  14. Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.

    2016-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…

  15. Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chorneau, Tom

    2012-01-01

    School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

  16. Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

  17. Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom

    2012-01-01

    An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

  18. ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

  19. The Predictive Validity of the Early Warning System Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Evelyn; Semmelroth, Carrie

    2010-01-01

    The Early Warning System is a tool developed by the National High School Center to collect data on indicators including attendance, grade point average, course failures, and credits earned. These indicators have been found to be highly predictive of a student's likelihood of dropping out of high school in large, urban areas. The Early Warning…

  20. Landslide early warning models - five applications within the ILEWS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiebes, Benni; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas; Aslan, Murat; Jäger, Stefan; Anderson, Malcolm; Holcombe, Liz

    2010-05-01

    Landslide early warning systems are a good choice if hazards cannot be avoided or if remedial actions are too costly or impossible. Landslide early warning systems are often site-specific and cannot easily be transferred to other regions or even to other landslide processes. One of the main goals of the ILEWS project is the development of transferable early warning concepts starting by the sensor in field and modelling early warning, and ending with user-optimized action advises embedded in a holistic risk management strategy. In our presentation we discuss five landslide early warning models applied in the ILEWS project of which four are aiming at the local scale and single slopes and one at the regional scale. The local study area is located on an extremely slow moving complex rotational landslide in the Swabian Alb, southwest Germany. A slow moving landslide was chosen to ensure that monitoring equipment does not get destroyed before the developed models can be tested extensively. A monitoring system with inclinometers, geoelectric profiles, TDR sensors and tensiometers, a geodetic network and a weather station was installed on the slope and data is utilized in the consequent early warning modelling. The regional model was applied to the Swabian Alb and to the region of South Tyrol, Northern Italy. The first local model is based the physically-based slope stability program CHASM (Combined Hydrology and Stability Model). Slope stability is continuously calculated on a web-processing service. Further on, registered users can create their personal simulations by selecting individual profiles by clicking on a map, and choosing scenarios for rainfall and slope moisture. A second model applies the concept of progressive failure to the slope. Warning is issued when a sudden increase in movement speed is reported by a stationary inclinometer chain. The third model utilizes the analysis of critical thresholds initiating movements. Definition of these thresholds is based

  1. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  2. GITEWS -- The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauterjung, J.; Rudloff, A.

    2005-12-01

    The aim of this work is the implementation of an effective Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean. It is a component part of an Early Warning System that will also be capable of registering other natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The system integrates terrestrial observation networks of seismology und geodesy with marine measurements techniques and satellite observations. The required R & D work will be realized within the framework of a stage-plan, which will, within a short time span of 1-3 years, be able to provide effective warning on the one hand and, which will also allow for an integration of technological developments, currently undergoing further research. The initiative is coordinated by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), represented by the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ). In view of the geological situation one has to bear in mind that Indonesia especially, due to the fact that the main islands are located next to and above the Sunda seismogenic zone, could most frequently and most intensively in the future be prone to catastrophic Tsunami events. The envisaged Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean consists of different components as broadband seismometers, GPS, tide gauges, ocean-bottom pressure sensors and GPS-Buoys. On the basis of the data and recordings registered a warning can be generated. This presentation gives insight into the creation of the 26 December 2004 Tsunami, introduces the planned technical realization of the Early Warning System, shows first model scenarios and gives an overview of the planned realization of an Early Warning System in the Indian Ocean. http://www.gfz-potsdam.de

  3. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  4. 78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-12

    ... early warning systems. Despite the strong foundational research on the use of early indicators to... impact of early warning systems on student outcomes such as staying in school, progressing in school and graduating. There also is very little information on the impact of adopting an early warning system on school...

  5. Recruitment Early Warning System. Phase II. Volume 2. System Documentation and Users’ Manual for the Automated EWS (Early Warning System).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-09-30

    GOUPmanpower planning, early warning system, N/A N /Aforecasting 19 ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) * The...purpose of the Recruitment Early Warning System Project is to provide (SD1. and the Services with a source of timely, reliable information on the near-term...status of the recruitic. market. Phase I of the study determined the feasibility of developing and imtplemeniting an early warning system for

  6. Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.

    2016-10-01

    Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions.

  7. Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system.

    PubMed

    Gopalakrishnan, E A; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R I

    2016-10-21

    Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions.

  8. Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

  9. Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

    2016-09-01

    Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

  10. Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, S R; Cole, J J; Pace, M L; Batt, R; Brock, W A; Cline, T; Coloso, J; Hodgson, J R; Kitchell, J F; Seekell, D A; Smith, L; Weidel, B

    2011-05-27

    Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.

  11. Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system

    PubMed Central

    Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065

  12. Role of remote sensing in desert locust early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cressman, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskål) plagues have historically had devastating consequences on food security in Africa and Asia. The current strategy to reduce the frequency of plagues and manage desert locust infestations is early warning and preventive control. To achieve this, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations operates one of the oldest, largest, and best-known migratory pest monitoring systems in the world. Within this system, remote sensing plays an important role in detecting rainfall and green vegetation. Despite recent technological advances in data management and analysis, communications, and remote sensing, monitoring desert locusts and preventing plagues in the years ahead will continue to be a challenge from a geopolitical and financial standpoint for affected countries and the international donor community. We present an overview of the use of remote sensing in desert locust early warning.

  13. Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Qing Yi; Viebahn, Jan P.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

    2014-08-01

    A future collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator, we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial resolution of the Atlantic MOC observations (i.e., at more sections) can improve early detection, because the spatial coherence in the deep ocean arising near the transition is better captured.

  14. New algorithm to improve earthquake early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2014-04-01

    When a fault line ruptures, seismic waves race out from the earthquake epicenter. Compressional seismic waves, known as primary (P) waves, travel fastest. Shear waves—secondary (S) waves—travel more slowly but are the source of the bulk of earthquake-induced damage. Using the opportunity afforded by the difference in travel times between these two types of waves, researchers have begun to design and implement earthquake early warning systems.

  15. Early warning of atmospheric regime transitions using transfer operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tantet, Alexis; Dijkstra, Henk

    2015-04-01

    The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric regimes, such as blocking events, with time scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transition paths between them motivates the development of early-warning indicators of regime transitions. Here, we use a barotropic model of the northern midlatitudes winter flow to study such meta-stable regimes. We look at estimates of transfer operators acting on densities evolving on a reduced phase space spanned by the first Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the streamfunction and develop an early-warning indicator of zonal to blocked flow transition. The study of the spectra of transfer operators estimated for different lags reveals a multi-level structure in the flow as well as the effect of memory on the reduced dynamics due to past interactions between the resolved and unresolved variables. The slowest motions in the reduced phase space are thereby found to have time scales larger than 8 days and to behave as Markovian for larger lags. These motions are associated with meta-stable regimes and their transitions and can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. The early-warning indicator is based on the action on an initial density of products of the transfer operators estimated for sufficiently long lags, making use of the semi-group property of these operators and shows relatively good Peirce skill score. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths as the manifestation of barotropic instability. Finally, even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

  16. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  17. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle. We find that although there are increases in both autocorrelation and variance preceding some of the monsoon transitions during this period, it is only immediately prior to the abrupt monsoon shift at the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) that statistically significant increases are detected. To supplement our data analysis, we produce and analyse multiple model simulations that we derive from these data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. However, signals of critical slowing down, which occur on the approach to a bifurcation, are only detectable in the model simulations when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the data set. This raises the possibility that the early warning "alarms" were missed in the speleothem data over the period 224-150 kyr and it was only at the monsoon termination that the change in the system stability was sufficiently slow to detect early warning signals.

  18. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  19. Raising awareness of Graves' orbitopathy with early warning cards.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Anna L; Hickey, Janis; Vaidya, Bijay; Mason, Rhianne; Ajjan, Ramzi; Zammitt, Nicola; Perros, Petros; Dayan, Colin

    2017-07-29

    Clinically significant Graves' orbitopathy (GO) develops in about 25% of those with Graves' disease (GD); most cases of GD in the UK are managed by endocrinologists. Despite this, patients report significant delays before a diagnosis of GO is made. Measures to increase awareness of the early signs of GO and establishing a fast-track referral pathway to specialist care should overcome these delays and potentially improve outcomes. We aimed to determine whether issuing a "GO early warning card" to all GD patients raises awareness of GO and facilitates early diagnosis, what percentage of cards result in a telephone contact, the number of "false reports" from card carriers and patient perceptions of the cards. We designed cards, detailing common GO symptoms and a telephone number for patients developing symptoms. Cards were distributed to 160 GD patients, without known GO, attending four endocrine clinics in the UK (December 2015-March 2016). We recorded telephone contacts over twelve months from when the last card was distributed and gathered patient feedback. The early warning cards were well received by patients in general. Over twelve months, ten telephone contacts from nine patients, all related to ocular symptoms, were received (6% of cards issued). Nine calls resulted in an additional clinic review (for eight patients), and four diagnoses of GO were made. This pilot study demonstrates that it is feasible to distribute GO early warning cards in clinic, and that they can be used to facilitate an early diagnosis of GO. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions

    PubMed Central

    Boettiger, Carl; Hastings, Alan

    2012-01-01

    Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model-based approach to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favourable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different datasets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions. PMID:22593100

  1. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  2. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  3. Early Warning Implementation Guide: "Using the Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) and Local Data to Identify, Diagnose, Support, and Monitor Students in Grades 1-12"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2014

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this guide is to provide information on how to use early warning data, including the Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), to identify, diagnose, support and monitor students in grades 1-12. It offers educators an overview of EWIS and how to effectively use these data in conjunction with local data by following a…

  4. Early Warning System Implementation Guide: For Use with the National High School Center's Early Warning System Tool v2.0

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy

    2010-01-01

    This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…

  5. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value

  6. Early Warning for Large Magnitude Earthquakes: Is it feasible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Kanamori, H.

    2011-12-01

    The mega-thrust, Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku earthquake has re-opened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, when applied to such large events. Many EEW systems are now under-testing or -development worldwide and most of them are based on the real-time measurement of ground motion parameters in a few second window after the P-wave arrival. Currently, we are using the initial Peak Displacement (Pd), and the Predominant Period (τc), among other parameters, to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude and damage potential. A well known problem about the real-time estimation of the magnitude is the parameter saturation. Several authors have shown that the scaling laws between early warning parameters and magnitude are robust and effective up to magnitude 6.5-7; the correlation, however, has not yet been verified for larger events. The Tohoku earthquake occurred near the East coast of Honshu, Japan, on the subduction boundary between the Pacific and the Okhotsk plates. The high quality Kik- and K- networks provided a large quantity of strong motion records of the mainshock, with a wide azimuthal coverage both along the Japan coast and inland. More than 300 3-component accelerograms have been available, with an epicentral distance ranging from about 100 km up to more than 500 km. This earthquake thus presents an optimal case study for testing the physical bases of early warning and to investigate the feasibility of a real-time estimation of earthquake size and damage potential even for M > 7 earthquakes. In the present work we used the acceleration waveform data of the main shock for stations along the coast, up to 200 km epicentral distance. We measured the early warning parameters, Pd and τc, within different time windows, starting from 3 seconds, and expanding the testing time window up to 30 seconds. The aim is to verify the correlation of these parameters with Peak Ground Velocity and Magnitude

  7. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  8. The Theoretical and Observational Limits of Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Baltay, A.; Hanks, T. C.; Meier, M. A.; Cochran, E. S.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we assume that the goal of earthquake warning is ground-motion early warning: to predict expected ground shaking intensity so that action can be taken at various locations to prepare for the imminent ground motion. The usefulness of early warning depends both on the accuracy of the ground motion prediction and the timeliness of the warning. We take timeliness to be the time difference between when the warning is received and when the expected ground motion arrives at the user's location, minus the time needed for users to take precautionary measures. The time required to issue a warning depends on several factors including the telemetry latency associated with receiving real-time data, the computational time needed to analyze those data, and, most crucially, the time needed to characterize the earthquake source in order to make accurate ground motion predictions. In this study we explore, both theoretically and observationally, the conditions necessary to make an accurate ground motion prediction and the temporal evolution of the expected accuracy of early-warning systems. We consider the limits of rapid magnitude estimation given the non-deterministic nature of earthquake rupture and the band-limited, Gaussian white noise properties of high-frequency (i.e., PGA) ground motion. We also study the best-case warning time scenario given the limits on magnitude estimation and the finiteness of large faults. Finally, we consider the accuracy and effectiveness of real-time ground-motion prediction given the uncertainties and limitations in magnitude estimation and the range of potential warning times.

  9. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  10. Ozone generation by rock fracture: Earthquake early warning?

    SciTech Connect

    Baragiola, Raul A.; Dukes, Catherine A.; Hedges, Dawn

    2011-11-14

    We report the production of up to 10 ppm ozone during crushing and grinding of typical terrestrial crust rocks in air, O{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} at atmospheric pressure, but not in helium or nitrogen. Ozone is formed by exoelectrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during fracture. The results suggest that ground level ozone produced by rock fracture, besides its potential health hazard, can be used for early warning in earthquakes and other catastrophes, such as landslides or land shifts in excavation tunnels and underground mines.

  11. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  12. Prospective evaluation of a pediatric inpatient early warning scoring system.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Karen M; Brewer, Tracy L; Baker, Rachel B; Demeritt, Brenda; Vossmeyer, Michael T

    2009-04-01

    The present study evaluated the use of the Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) for detecting clinical deterioration among hospitalized children. A prospective, descriptive study design was used. The tool was used to score 2,979 patients admitted to a single medical unit of a pediatric hospital over a 12-month period. PEWS discriminated between children who required transfer to the pediatric intensive care unit and those who did not require transfer (area under the curve = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.84-0.94, p < .001). The PEWS tool was found to be a reliable and valid scoring system to identify children at risk for clinical deterioration.

  13. Ozone generation by rock fracture: Earthquake early warning?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baragiola, Raúl A.; Dukes, Catherine A.; Hedges, Dawn

    2011-11-01

    We report the production of up to 10 ppm ozone during crushing and grinding of typical terrestrial crust rocks in air, O2 and CO2 at atmospheric pressure, but not in helium or nitrogen. Ozone is formed by exoelectrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during fracture. The results suggest that ground level ozone produced by rock fracture, besides its potential health hazard, can be used for early warning in earthquakes and other catastrophes, such as landslides or land shifts in excavation tunnels and underground mines.

  14. Risk management: application of early warning systems to emergency plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, C.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.; de Amicis, M.

    2009-04-01

    Warning System and emergency plans are two fundamental elements of risk management and governance, but unfortunately, most of the times, they are developed independently one from the other, as sequential steps not necessary linked. The main goal of this research is to develop a methodology for applying Early Warning Systems - Community Based to the emergency plan using the results of social surveys and quantitative risk assessment, taking into account the administrative structure and the planning system of the study area, as well as the legislative obligations of each entity involved in the risk governance and emergency management. Using a integrative scientific and social approach to natural hazards the research aim to contribute to fill the gap between scientists, policy makers, stakeholders and community. Initially applied in Comunità Montana Valtellina di Tirano, Italy, the methodology involves the application of two comprehensive surveys. The first is addressed to stakeholders (including policy makers, emergency managers, emergency volunteers, consultants and scientists) in order to determine their needs, points of view, concerns and constraints. The second survey is addressed specifically to local community to assess risk perception, awareness, needs, capacity and level of trust towards stakeholders, besides asking for their willingness to participate in future risk communication activities. The Early Warning System developed includes all the stages of the early warning process (hazard evaluation and forecasting; warning and dissemination and public response) and would be based on a multidisciplinary partnership that takes into account the different actors involved in the risk management in order to accomplish a more reliable and credible result, including an emergency plan specifically designed for each study area. After evaluating the results of the surveys, information and education campaigns will be developed with the objective of reducing vulnerability

  15. Pd attenuation and its application to earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y.; Kanamori, H.

    2005-12-01

    Pd is the peak amplitude of displacement during the first three seconds of P waves. Our previous studies in Taiwan (Wu and Kanamori, 2005a) and Southern California (Wu et al., 2005) showed that Pd correlates well with the peak ground-motion velocity (PGV) at the same location. Using Pd, we can predict the shaking intensity for earthquake early warning (EEW) purposes. We investigated the attenuation of Pd with the hypocentral distance (R) in southern California as a function of magnitude (M), and obtained the following relationship: log Pd(R)=-3.113+0.655M-1.384 log(R) +- 0.324 This relationship can be used in two ways. First, if we can locate the earthquake using the P arrival times at nearby stations, we can use this relationship to estimate the magnitude for regional EEW purposes. In our study, we can estimate the magnitude with a standard deviation of 0.23. Second, if the magnitude can be estimated from the average of the ground-motion period of the first three seconds of P waves (Kanamori, 2005; Wu and Kanamori, 2005b), then this relationship can be used to estimate the hypocentral distance. In our study, the ratio of the calculated to observed hypocentral distance varies from 0.52 to 1.72 around the average of about 1. This method is similar to that used in UrEDAS (Nakamura, 1988). References Kanamori, H. (2005). Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 33, 5.1-5.20. Wu, Y. M. and H. Kanamori (2005a). Rapid assessment of damaging potential of earthquakes in Taiwan from the beginning of P Waves, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95, 1181-1185. Wu, Y. M. and H. Kanamori (2005b). Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95, 347-353. Wu, Y. M., H. Kanamori, R. M. Allen, and E. Hauksson (2005). An onsite earthquake early warning method for the Southern California Seismic Network, submitted to Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.. Nakamura, Y. (1988). On the urgent

  16. Physiological risk factors, early warning scoring systems and organizational changes.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, Carolyn C; Rattray, Janice; Myers, Liz

    2007-01-01

    Currently, medical and surgical wards tend to have a higher number of sicker and more dependent patients. There is also a growing recognition that several indicators of acute deterioration are being missed, leading to adverse consequences for the patients. As a result, many initiatives have been designed to try to reduce these consequences, including the development of early warning scoring or track and trigger systems and medical response and critical care outreach teams. This paper briefly discusses the risk factors associated with acute deterioration, the use of early warning scoring or track and trigger systems and the role of outreach teams. The aim of this paper is to discuss the development and subsequent implementation of early warning scoring systems (EWS) or track and trigger systems. It will also discuss the associated organizational changes; the main organizational change discussed will be the introduction outreach teams. For this paper, a pragmatic search strategy was implemented using the following terms: early warning score and scoring, track and trigger systems, decision-making tools, critical care outreach and medical emergency teams. The databases used included CINHAL (1997-2007), Medline, Blackwell Synergy and Science Direct, as these would enable the retrieval of relevant literature in the area of triggering of response to acute deterioration in clinical condition. A 10-year limit was initially set, although review of the literature identified resulted in a widening of this to include some of the relevant (and occasionally more dated) literature referred to in these papers. A total of 645 were accessed; of these 135 were retrieved as they appeared to meet the inclusion criteria, but only 35 have been included in this review. The term decision-making tools accounted for the largest number (500), but most of these were irrelevant. EWS are not always used to their full potential, raising the question of their impact. The impact of outreach teams

  17. An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

    2012-04-01

    The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

  18. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  19. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

    2017-07-01

    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  20. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  1. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wächter, J.; Babeyko, A.; Fleischer, J.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Kloth, A.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-06-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT), the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys) for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean. Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP) and event-driven architecture (EDA)) are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  2. Early warning indicators for challenges in underground coal storage.

    PubMed

    Sipilä, Juha; Auerkari, Pertti; Holmström, Stefan; Vela, Iris

    2014-12-01

    Early warning or leading indicators are discussed for unexpected incidences in case of large-scale underground coal storage at a power plant. The experience is compared with above-ground stockpiles for which established procedures are available but where access for prevention and mitigation are much easier. It is suggested that while the explicit organization, procedures, and the general safety systems aim to provide the targeted levels of performance for the storage, representing new technology without much precedence elsewhere in the world, the extensive experience and tacit knowledge from above-ground open and closed storage systems can help to prepare for and to prevent unwanted incidents in the underground storage. This kind of experience has been also found useful for developing the leading or early warning indicators for underground storage. Examples are given on observed autoignition and freezing of coal in the storage silos, and on occupational hazards. Selection of the leading indicators needs to consider the specific features of the unique underground facility. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  4. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  5. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

    PubMed

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

    2012-12-15

    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  6. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628

  7. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Eveslage, I.; Fischer, J.; Fleming, K. M.; Lichtblau, B.; Milkereit, C.; Picozzi, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected through cooperating stations. SEEDLink is used to store and provide access to the sensor data. Experiences and selected experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network is of great value to do this

  8. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eveslage, Ingmar; Fischer, Joachim; Kühnlenz, Frank; Lichtblau, Björn; Milkereit, Claus; Picozzi, Matteo

    2010-05-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures (as we could proof during the L'Aquila earthquake) or technical systems and most recently for seismic microzonation. Nevertheless the main purpose SOSEWIN was initially invented for is the earthquake early warning and rapid response, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected cooperatively in a two-level hierarchical alarming protocol. Experiences and experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. The limited size of this installation with currently 20 nodes allows not answering certain questions regarding the useful or possible size of a SOSEWIN installation

  9. Recruitment Early Warning System and Accession Contingency Planning Process. Phase II. Part 1.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-11-01

    RD-A154 613 RECRUITMENT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM AND ACCESSION i/7 CONTINGENCY PLANNING PROCE..(U) ECONOMIC RESEARCH LAB INC RESTON YA L GOLDBERG ET AL...11 TITLE (include Security Classification) Recruitment Early Warning System and Accession Contingency Planning Process Phase II, Part 1 Final Report...GROUP Early Warning System, Forecasting, Manpower Planning LV &V WA&Vm 19. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block ny.1ber

  10. On Pecuniary Resiliency, Early Warning, and Market Imitation under Unrestricted Warfare

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-17

    ON PECUNIARY RESILIENCY, EARLY WARNING, AND MARKET IMITATION UNDER UNRESTRICTED WARFARE DISSERTATION David M. Smalenberger, Captain, USAF AFIT-ENS-DS...be used to imply or infer actual mission capability or limitations. AFIT-ENS-DS-15-S-034 ON PECUNIARY RESILIENCY, EARLY WARNING, AND MARKET IMITATION...DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT-ENS-DS-15-S-034 ON PECUNIARY RESILIENCY, EARLY WARNING, AND MARKET IMITATION UNDER UNRESTRICTED WARFARE David M

  11. The Earthquake Closet: Making Early-Warning Useful

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, M.; Trendafiloski, G.

    2009-12-01

    Early-warning of approaching strong shaking that could have fatal consequences is a research field that has made great progress. It makes it possible to reduce the impact on dangerous processes in critical facilities and on trains. However, its potential to save lives has a serious Achilles heel: The time for getting to safety is five to 10 seconds only, in many cities. Occupants of upper floors cannot get out of their buildings and narrow streets are not a safe place in strong earthquakes for people who might be able to exit. Thus, only about 10% of a city’s population can benefit from early-warnings, unless they have access to their own earthquake closet that is strong enough to remain intact in a collapsing building. Such an Earthquake Protection Unit (EPU) may be installed in the structurally strongest part of an existing apartment at low cost. In new constructions, we propose that an earthquake shelter be constructed for each floor, large enough to accommodate all occupants of that floor. These types of EPU should be constructed on top of each other, forming a strong tower, next to the elevator shaft and the staircase, at the center of the building. If an EPU with structural properties equivalent to an E-class building is placed into a building of B-class in South America, for example, we estimate that the chances of surviving shaking of intensity VII is about 30,000 times better inside the closet. The probability of escaping injury inside compared to outside we estimate as about 1,500 times better. Educating the population regarding the usefulness of EPUs will be essential, and P-waves can be used as the early warning signal. The owner of an earthquake closet can easily be motivated to take protective measures, when these involve simply to step into his closet, rather than attempting to exit from the building by running down many flights of stairs. Our intention is to start a discussion how best to construct EPUs and how to introduce legislation that will

  12. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  13. Integrative landslide early warning systems within the ILEWS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiebes, B.

    2009-04-01

    This poster provides a brief overview on the ILEWS project (Integrative Landslide Early Warning Systems) which aims to develop and implement modular and transferable landslide early warning systems for local and regional scales. Experts from different backgrounds are involved in the project including natural and social scientists. The projects' methodological architecture spans from field installations of novel sensor combinations and near-real time landslide modelling to action advises in correlation to actual needs of the end-user. The project consists of three clusters: Monitoring, Modelling and Implementation. The cluster Monitoring is concerned with the measurement of landslide controlling factors and the landslide movement itself. These key factors include meteorology, soil moisture conditions, surface and sub-surface movement rates. Historical data is included to gain a better understanding of frequency-magnitude correlations of past events. The cluster Modelling applies and combines three early-warning systems on the local scale. A physical-based calculation of slope stability is carried out with a WebGIS application of CHASM (Combined Hydrology And Stability Model). Movement characteristics are analysed using the progressive failure method. Further on a statistical analysis of all measured data is used to define critical thresholds initiating landslide movement. Regional analyses are based on rainfall thresholds regarding the antecedent soil-water status. The cluster Implementation defines protection goals and damage potentials. Alternative risk management strategies and possible outcomes are identified and communicated with the end-users involved. First results show that local authorities are not interested in precise information about current situation. They simply need brief information (e.g. a flashing red light) if the the situation is critical. These findings are the basis for further steps in the clusters Monitoring and Modelling. The slope under

  14. A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiao, N.; Wu, Y.; Chen, D.; Kuo, K.; Shin, T.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) system has already been developed and tested in Taiwan for more than ten years. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a virtual sub-network (VSN) system based on regional early warning approach was utilized at the first attempt. In order to shorten the processing time, seismic waveforms in a 10-sec time window starting from the first P-wave arrival time at the nearest station are used to determine the hypocenter and earthquake magnitude which is dubbed ML10. Since 2001, this EEW system has responded to a total of 255 events with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred inland or off the coast of Taiwan. The system is capable of issuing an earthquake report within 20 sec of its occurrence with good magnitude estimations for events up to magnitude 6.5. This will provide early warning for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicentre. In the latest development, a new prototype EEW system based on P-wave method was developed. Instead of ML10, we adopt the “Pd magnitude”, MPd, as our magnitude indicator in the new system. Pd is defined as the peak amplitude of the initial P-wave displacement. In the previous studies, by analyzing the Pd attenuation relationship with earthquake magnitudes, Pd was proved to be a good magnitude estimator for EEW purpose. Therefore, we adopt the Pd magnitude in developing our next generation EEW system. The new system is designed and constructed based on the Central Weather Bureau Seismographic Network (CWBSN). The CWBSN is a real-time seismographic network with more than one hundred digital telemetered seismic stations distributed over the entire Taiwan. Currently, there are three types of seismic instruments installed at the stations, either co-site or separately installed, including short-period seismographs, accelerometers, and broadband instruments. For the need of integral data processing, we use the Earthworm system as a common

  15. Towards Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Technologies and Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, Martin; Biskup, Joachim; Flegel, Ulrich; Meier, Michael

    We present the architecture of an automatic early warning system (EWS) that aims at providing predictions and advice regarding security threats in information and communication technology without incorporation of cognitive abilities of humans and forms the basis for drawing a situation picture. Our EWS particularly targets the growing malware threat and shall achieve the required capabilities by combining malware collectors, malware analysis systems, malware behavior clustering, signature generation and distribution and malware/misuse detection system into an integrated process chain. The quality and timeliness of the results delivered by the EWS are influenced by the number and location of participating partners that share information on security incidents. In order to enable such a cooperation and an effective deployment of the EWS, interests and confidentiality requirements of the parties involved need to be carefully examined. We discuss technical details of the EWS components, evaluate alternatives and examine the interests of all parties involved in the anticipated deployment scenario.

  16. Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits.

    PubMed

    Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-01

    Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarelli, A.

    2007-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  18. Comparison of three acute care pediatric early warning scoring tools.

    PubMed

    Robson, Mary-Ann J; Cooper, Carole L; Medicus, Lori A; Quintero, Mary J; Zuniga, Stephen A

    2013-01-01

    Pediatric Early Warning (PEW) scoring tools effectively identify hospitalized children at risk for clinical deterioration. The study compared the predictability of three previously validated PEW scoring tools. A retrospective case-control design was used that identified the PEW System Score (H. Duncan, J. Hutchison, & C. Parshuram, 2006) as a stronger predictor of cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) than either the PEW Tool (C. Haines, M. Perrott, & P. Weir, 2006) or the Bedside PEW System Score (C. Parshuram, J. Hutchison, & K. Middaugh, 2009). The PEW System Score (H. Duncan, J. Hutchison, & C. Parshuram, 2006) demonstrated a greater sensitivity (86.6%) and specificity (72.9%) at a score of five. The PEW System Score (H. Duncan, J. Hutchison, & C. Parshuram, 2006) could benefit healthcare providers in potentially averting CPA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, M.; Bründl, M.; Straub, D.

    2016-01-01

    Early warning systems (EWSs) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWSs is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWSs and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWSs is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWSs. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

  20. Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, M.; Bründl, M.; Straub, D.

    2015-07-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWS is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWS and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWS is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWS. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

  1. Advancing Integrated African Early Warning Science and Climate Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Galu, G.; Macharia, D.; Shukla, S.; Harrison, L.; McNally, A.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Pedreros, D. H.; Husak, G. J.; Peterson, P.; Peterson, S.; Ederer, G.; Landsfeld, M. F.

    2016-12-01

    In this talk we summarize new research and strategies for enhancing climate services to support better climate adaptation, drought monitoring and drought prediction in food insecure East Africa. With support from USAID and NASA, scientists in the United States and Africa are developing new data sets, such as the gridded 1981-present Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS), and then using these data sets to drive 1981-present crop water balance and land surface models. We describe how these data and modeling systems provide unprecedented early warning capabilities. We then go on to describe new research focused on i) developing integrated downscaled weather and climate forecasts suitable for driving crop and land surface models, and ii) strategies for enhancing climate service distribution capacities at the Regional Centre for Mapping and Resource Development (RCMRD) and national meteorological agencies in Eastern and Southern Africa.

  2. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Squartini, Tiziano; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-11-01

    The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of `systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998-2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear - but unpredictable - signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies.

  3. Early-warning indicators for rate-induced tipping.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Paul; Sieber, Jan

    2016-09-01

    A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node normal form subject to time-varying equilibrium drift and noise. We find that both most commonly used early-warning indicators, increase in variance and increase in autocorrelation, occur not when the equilibrium drift is fastest but with a delay. We explain this delay by demonstrating that the most likely trajectory for tipping also crosses the tipping threshold with a delay, and therefore, the tipping itself is delayed. We find solutions of the variational problem determining the most likely tipping path using numerical continuation techniques. The result is a systematic study of the most likely tipping time in the plane of two parameters, distance from tipping threshold and noise intensity.

  4. Use of Maternal Early Warning Trigger tool reduces maternal morbidity.

    PubMed

    Shields, Laurence E; Wiesner, Suzanne; Klein, Catherine; Pelletreau, Barbara; Hedriana, Herman L

    2016-04-01

    Maternal mortality in the United States has increased unabated for the past 20 years. Maternal morbidity is also affecting an increasingly large number of women in the United States. A number of national and state organizations have recommend the use of maternal early warning tools as a method to combat this problem. There are limited data suggesting that the use of these types of clinical assessment tools can reduce maternal morbidity. We sought to determine if maternal morbidity could be reduced with the implementation of a clinical pathway-specific Maternal Early Warning Trigger (MEWT) tool. The tool was developed internally and prospectively implemented as a pilot project in 6 of 29 hospitals within a large hospital system. The primary goal was early assessment and treatment of patients suspected of clinical deterioration. The tool addressed the 4 most common areas of maternal morbidity: sepsis, cardiopulmonary dysfunction, preeclampsia-hypertension, and hemorrhage. To be considered positive, triggers needed to be sustained for >20 minutes and were defined as severe (single abnormal value): maternal heart rate (HR) >130 beats/min (bpm), respiratory rate >30/min, mean arterial pressure <55 mm Hg, oxygen saturation <90%, or nurse concern; or nonsevere (required 2 abnormal values): temperature >38 or <36°C, blood pressure >160/110 or <85/45 mm Hg, HR >110 or <50 bpm, respiratory rate >24 or <10/min, oxygen saturation <93%, fetal HR >160 bpm, altered mental status, or disproportionate pain. Within each group, recommended management or assessment was also provided. Outcome measures were Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-defined severe maternal morbidity, composite maternal morbidity, and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. Two time intervals were used to analyze the effect of the MEWT tool: a 24-month baseline control period and a 13-month MEWT study period. To determine that the findings noted were not simply changes that would have occurred

  5. Early warning tools for ecotoxicity assessment based on Phaeodactylum tricornutum.

    PubMed

    Renzi, Monia; Roselli, Leonilde; Giovani, Andrea; Focardi, Silvano E; Basset, Alberto

    2014-08-01

    Phaeodactylum tricornutum was exposed to various toxic substances (zinc, copper or dodecylbenzenesulfonic acid sodium salt) in accordance with the AlgalToxkit(®) protocol based on the UNI EN ISO 10253 method in order to quantitatively compare the responses obtained by traditional growth-rate inhibition tests with morphological (biovolume) and physiological (chlorophyll-a, phaeophytin ratio) endpoints. A novel approach is proposed for detecting early and sub-lethal effects based on biovolume quantification using confocal microscopy coupled with an image analysis system. The results showed that effects on both biovolume and the photosynthetic complex are sensitive and powerful early warning tools for evaluating sub-lethal effects of exposure. Specifically, biovolume showed significant sensitive and early responses for the tested surfactant. Qualitatively, we also observed structural anomalies and effects on natural auto-fluorescence in exposed cells that also represent potentially useful tools for ecotoxicological studies.

  6. Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

    Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

  7. Developing an Early Warning System for Machu Picchu Pueblo, Peru.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony

    2010-05-01

    The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, is linked to Ollantaytambo and Cusco by rail and serves as the main station for the 400,000+ tourists visiting Machu Picchu. Due to the tourist industry the town grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Today, due to the limited availability of low-lying ground, construction is occurring higher up on the unstable valley slopes. The town is located at 2000 m asl while the surrounding peaks rise to over 4000 m asl. Slopes range from < 10° on the valley floor to > 70° in the surrounding granite mountains. The town has grown on the downstream right bank of the Vilcanota River, at the confluence of the Alcamayo and the Aguas Calientes Rivers. Broadly, a dry winter season runs from May to August with a rainy summer season running from October to March. The rainy months provide around 80% of the annual rainfall average, which ranges from 1,600 to 2,300 mm. Seasonal temperature variations are considered modest. An assessment of the geohazards in and around the town has been undertaken. Those of particular concern to the town are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. To improve the existing municipal warning system a prototype early warning system incorporating suitable technologies that could monitor weather, river flow and slope satability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing most components to be installed, maintained, swapped, salvaged, repaired and/or replaced by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was deployed and evaluated. Most of the candidate technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

  8. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  9. The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

    2013-05-01

    The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological

  10. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  11. Development of an operational coastal flooding early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doong, D.-J.; Chuang, L. Z.-H.; Wu, L.-C.; Fan, Y.-M.; Kao, C. C.; Wang, J.-H.

    2012-02-01

    Coastal floods are a consistent threat to oceanfront countries, causing major human suffering and substantial economic losses. Climate change is exacerbating the problem. An early warning system is essential to mitigate the loss of life and property from coastal flooding. The purpose of this study is to develop a coastal flooding early warning system (CoFEWs) by integrating existing sea-state monitoring technology, numerical ocean forecasting models, historical database and experiences, as well as computer science. The proposed system has capability of offering data for the past, information for the present and future. The system was developed for the Taiwanese coast due to its frequent threat by typhoons. An operational system without any manual work is the basic requirement of the system. Integration of various data sources is the system kernel. Numerical ocean models play an important role within the system because they provide data for assessment of possible flooding. The regional wave model (SWAN) that nested with the large domain wave model (NWW III) is operationally set up for coastal wave forecasting, in addition to the storm surge predicted by a POM model. Data assimilation technology is incorporated for enhanced accuracy. A warning signal is presented when the storm water level that accumulated from astronomical tide, storm surge, and wave-induced run-up exceeds the alarm sea level. This warning system has been in practical use for coastal flooding damage mitigation in Taiwan for years. An example of the system operation during the Typhoon Haitung which struck Taiwan in 2005 is illustrated in this study.

  12. Site correction of earthquake early warning system in Ilan, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiao Chu, Hsu; Liang, Wen Kuo; Jyun Yan, Huang

    2015-04-01

    When large earthquake occurs, earthquake early warning (EEW) provides alerts to urban areas of the forthcoming strong ground shaking. Depending on the specific geometry of the epicenter and the strong motion network used in EEW, the warning time can be a few seconds to tens of seconds. This warning time can be extremely important since even a few seconds can be sufficient for pre-programmed systems to have emergency response. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) had already used network EEW system to predict intensity map. Due to leveling of intensity was roughly divided into seven grades according to peak acceleration (PGA) in Taiwan, the warning message is not cautious for company, home and school use, the accuracy of predicted PGA were discuss for our result. A practical site correction approach for EEW was constructed in this study. Period parameter (τc) and an amplitude parameter (Pd)from the initial 3 seconds of P waves were calculated after Wu et al.(2005) first for each site of Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) in Ilan, Taiwan for focal depths less than 35 km and magnitude Mw>=5.0. Two pairs of linear relations had showed in each station between τc, magnitude (Mw) and Pd, hypocenter distance (R) that could be corrected individually. Prediction results of PGA from site correction based ground motion prediction equation (Jean et al. 2006) indicated that the corrected parameters of EEW in this study had improved the accuracy of ground motion prediction. Which means reasonable site correction of each station was needed for EEW system. Key works: earthquake early warning, P wave, site correction

  13. Hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria: climate change and early warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Bedka, Kristopher; Lhermitte, Stef; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Severe thunderstorms and associated high waves represent a constant threat to the 200,000 fishermen operating on Lake Victoria. According to the International Red Cross, presumably 3000 to 5000 fishermen die every year on the lake, thereby substantially contributing to the global death toll from natural disasters. Despite the long-known bad reputation of Lake Victoria, operational early warning systems are lacking and possible future changes of these extreme thunderstorms are unknown. Here we present the first dedicated high-resolution, coupled lake-land-atmosphere climate projection for the African Great Lakes region and analyse it in combination with new satellite data and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Our model projections for the end-of-the-century indicate that Lake Victoria amplifies the future intensification of extreme precipitation seen over the surrounding land. Under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the 1% most extreme over-lake precipitation may intensify up to four times faster compared to surrounding land. Our findings are consistent with an ensemble of coarser-scale climate projections for Africa, but the lower skill of the ensemble over Lake Victoria constrains its applicability. Interestingly, the change in extremes contrasts to the change in average over-lake precipitation, which is projected to decrease by -6% for the same period. By further analyzing the high-resolution output we are able to explain this different response: while mesoscale circulation changes cause the average precipitation decline, the response of extremes is essentially thermodynamic. Finally, the study of the satellite-based detection of severe thunderstorms revealed a strong dependency of the nighttime storm intensity over Lake Victoria on the antecedent daytime land storm activity. This highlights the potential of this new satellite product for predicting intense storms over Lake Victoria. Overall, our results indicate a new major hazard associated with climate

  14. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m, we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m, identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m, then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m. For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the vegetated

  15. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Updates and Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to CISN's ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for California. Overall, ElarmS performance has been excellent. Over the past year (July 1, 2014 - July 1, 2015), ElarmS successfully detected all but three of the significant earthquakes (M4+) that occurred within California. Of the 24 events that were detected, the most notable was the M6.0 South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. The first alert for this event was sent in 5.1 seconds with an initial magnitude estimate of M5.7. This alert provided approximately 8 seconds of warning of the impending S-wave arrival to the city of San Francisco. The magnitude estimate increased to the final value of M6.0 within 15 seconds of the initial alert. One of the two events that were not detected by ElarmS occurred within 30 seconds of the M6.0 Napa mainshock. The two other missed events occurred offshore in a region with sparse station coverage in the Eureka area. Since its inception, ElarmS has evolved and adapted to meet new challenges. On May 30, 2015, an extraordinarily deep (678km) M7.8 teleseism in Japan generated 5 false event detections for earthquakes greater than M4 within a minute due to the simultaneous arrival of the P-waves at stations throughout California. In order to improve the speed and accuracy of the ElarmS detections, we are currently exploring new methodologies to quickly evaluate incoming triggers from individual stations. Rapidly determining whether or not a trigger at a given station is due to a local earthquake or some other source (such as a distant teleseism) could dramatically increase the confidence in individual triggers and reduce false alerts.

  16. Assessing the Applicability of Earthquake Early Warning in Nicaragua.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massin, F.; Clinton, J. F.; Behr, Y.; Strauch, W.; Cauzzi, C.; Boese, M.; Talavera, E.; Tenorio, V.; Ramirez, J.

    2016-12-01

    Nicaragua, like much of Central America, suffers from frequent damaging earthquakes (6 M7+ earthquakes occurred in the last 100 years). Thrust events occur at the Middle America Trench where the Cocos plate subducts by 72-81 mm/yr eastward beneath the Caribbean plate. Shallow crustal events occur on-shore, with potential extensive damage as demonstrated in 1972 by a M6.2 earthquake, 5 km beneath Managua. This seismotectonic setting is challenging for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) because the target events derive from both the offshore seismicity, with potentially large lead times but uncertain locations, and shallow seismicity in close proximity to densely urbanized areas, where an early warning would be short if available at all. Nevertheless, EEW could reduce Nicaragua's earthquake exposure. The Swiss Development and Cooperation Fund and the Nicaraguan Government have funded a collaboration between the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich and the Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute (INETER) in Managua to investigate and build a prototype EEW system for Nicaragua and the wider region. In this contribution, we present the potential of EEW to effectively alert Nicaragua and the neighbouring regions. We model alert time delays using all available seismic stations (existing and planned) in the region, as well as communication and processing delays (observed and optimal) to estimate current and potential performances of EEW alerts. Theoretical results are verified with the output from the Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3 (VS(SC3)). VS(SC3) is implemented in the INETER SeisComP3 system for real-time operation and as an offline instance, that simulates real-time operation, to record processing delays of playback events. We compare our results with similar studies for Europe, California and New Zealand. We further highlight current capabilities and challenges for providing EEW alerts in Nicaragua. We also discuss how combining different algorithms, like e.g. VS

  17. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m , we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m , identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m , then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m . For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the

  18. Necessity of Flood Early Warning Systems in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurian, C.; Natesan, U.; Durga Rao, K. H. V.

    2014-12-01

    India is one of the highly flood prone countries in the world. National flood commission has reported that 400,000 km² of geographical area is prone to floods, constituting to twelve percent of the country's geographical area. Despite the reoccurrences of floods, India still does not have a proper flood warning system. Probably this can be attributed to the lack of trained personnel in using advanced techniques. Frequent flood hazards results in damage to livelihood, infrastructure and public utilities. India has a potential to develop an early warning system since it is one of the few countries where satellite based inputs are regularly used for monitoring and mitigating floods. However, modeling of flood extent is difficult due to the complexity of hydraulic and hydrologic processes during flood events. It has been reported that numerical methods of simulations can be effectively used to simulate the processes correctly. Progress in computational resources, data collection and development of several numerical codes has enhanced the use of hydrodynamic modeling approaches to simulate the flood extent in the floodplains. In this study an attempt is made to simulate the flood in one of the sub basins of Godavari River in India using hydrodynamic modeling techniques. The modeling environment includes MIKE software, which simulates the water depth at every grid cell of the study area. The runoff contribution from the catchment was calculated using Nebdor Afstromnings model. With the hydrodynamic modeling approach, accuracy in discharge and water level computations are improved compared to the conventional methods. The results of the study are proming to develop effective flood management plans in the basin. Similar studies could be taken up in other flood prone areas of the country for continuous modernisation of flood forecasting techniques, early warning systems and strengthening decision support systems, which will help the policy makers in developing management

  19. Multi-Use Seismic Stations for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, T.; Townsend, B.; Moores, A. O.; Bainbridge, G. S.; Easton, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning network performance improves with the number and density of sensing stations, quality of the sites, quality of strong-motion instrumentation, degree of coverage near at-risk populated areas and potential fault zones, and minimizing latency of signal processing and transmission. Seismic research tends to emphasize competing requirements: low-noise sites, high-performance broadband seismic instrumentation, and high-quality signal processing without regard for latency. Recent advances in instrumentation and processing techniques have made feasible the concept of a multi-use seismic station in which strong-motion and weak-motion seismometry are both cost-effectively served without compromising the performance demands of either. We present a concept for a multi-use seismic station that cost-effectively meets the needs of both earthquake early warning and high-quality seismic research. One significant enabler is a 6-channel dual-sensor instrument that combines a 120s broadband seismometer and a class A accelerometer in a single ultra-compact sonde suitable for direct burial. Combining two sensors into one effectively adds broadband capability to a station without increasing the already optimized site footprint, preparation and management costs associated with shallow direct-burial installations. The combined sensors also complement each other, simplifying and speeding installation (for example, the accelerometer provides real-time tilt readings useful to leveling the seismometer). Integration simplifies alignment to North, as there is only one instrument to orient. A dual-use 6-channel digitizer simultaneously provides two sets of independently processed streams from both sensors, one set optimized for low-latency earthquake warning, and the other set for high quality seismic research purposes. Such a dual-use seismic station can serve both seismic research and civil warning infrastructure objectives without adding significantly to the cost of a

  20. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients.

    PubMed

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, T

    2016-04-01

    Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. Patients admitted with acute stroke at the Copenhagen University Hospital, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Denmark, from May to September 2012 were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study (n = 274). Vital signs were measured immediately after admission and consistently during the hospitalization period. Based on the vital signs, a single composite EWS was calculated. Death within 30 days was used as outcome. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and a Kaplan-Meier curve were computed to examine the prognostic validity of EWS. A total of 24 patients (8.8%) died within 30 days. The prognostic performance was high for both the EWS at admission (AUROC 0.856; 95% CI 0.760-0.951; P-value < 0.001) and the maximal EWS measured (AUROC 0.949; 95% CI 0.919-0.980; P-value < 0.001). Mortality rates were lowest for admission EWS 0-1 (2%) and highest for admission EWS ≥ 5 (63%). Early warning score is a simple and valid tool for identifying patients at risk of dying after acute stroke. Readily available physiological parameters are converted to a single score, which can guide both nurses and physicians in clinical decision making and resource allocation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. [Establishment of malaria early warning system in Jiangsu Province III effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination].

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei-Ming; Zhou, Hua-Yun; Liu, Yao-Bao; Cao, Yuan-Yuan; Cao, Jun; Gao, Qi

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination in Jiangsu Province through the operation of the national automatic early warning system of infectious diseases. The malaria early warning information was collected from the automatic early warning information subsystem in the national information system for diseases control and prevention. Malaria early warning signals were analyzed from September 1 to December 31, 2012. The statistical analysis was conducted for the completion rates of case investigation within 3 days before and after the application of malaria early warning information system. Jiangsu Province received 85 mobile phone short messages (SMS) of malaria case from early warning system from September 1 to December 31, 2012. After judgments, 23 cases were deleted including 8 repeated cases and 15 cases that were excluded through the microscopy examination and epidemiological investigation by the confirmation of county CDC. From July to December in 2012, the monthly completion rates of case investigation within 3 days were 55.56%, 78.57%, 90.00%, 100%, 100% and 100%, respectively. The completion rates of case investigation within 3 days in July, August, September and October were significantly different by chi2 test ( chi2 = 10.66, P < 0.05). The completion rates of foci investigation and action within 7 days in Jiangsu Province were all 100% from July to December in 2012. The completion rates of case investigation within 3 days are associated with SMS from the early warning system. The malaria warning system from the national infectious diseases can effectively improve the response to malaria cases for primary CDC. It also plays an important role for the timely confirmation and diagnosis of malaria cases.

  2. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief...

  3. [Research of early-warning method for regional groundwater pollution based on risk management].

    PubMed

    Bai, Li-Ping; Wang, Ye-Yao; Guo, Yong-Li; Zhou, You-Ya; Liu, Li; Yan, Zeng-Guang; Li, Fa-Sheng

    2014-08-01

    Groundwater is the main source of water supply in China, and China's overall situation of groundwater pollution is not optimistic at present. Groundwater pollution risk evaluation and early-warning are the effective measures to prevent groundwater pollution. At present, research of groundwater early-warning method at home and abroad is still at the exploratory stage, and the sophisticated technology has not been developed for reference. This paper briefly described the data and technological demand of the early-warning method in different scales, and the main factors influencing the early-warning results of groundwater pollution were classified as protection performance of geological medium, characteristics of pollution sources, groundwater dynamics and groundwater value. Then the main early-warning indexes of groundwater pollution were screened to establish the early-warning model of regional or watershed scale by the index overlay method. At last, the established early-warning model was used in Baotou plain, and the different early-warning grades were zoned by the model. The research results could provide scientific support for the local management department to protect the groundwater resources.

  4. Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States.

    Treesearch

    Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan

    2004-01-01

    The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...

  5. Organizing Schools to Address Early Warning Indicators (EWIs): Common Practices and Challenges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Marcia; Herzog, Liza; Legters, Nettie

    2013-01-01

    An early warning system is an intentional process whereby school personnel collectively analyze student data to monitor students at risk of falling off track for graduation and to provide the interventions and resources to intervene. We studied the process of monitoring the early warning indicators and implementing interventions to ascertain…

  6. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief...

  7. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief...

  8. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel... production numbers for child restraint systems, tires, and vehicles other than light vehicles, as defined in...

  9. 78 FR 78321 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-26

    ... National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 573, 577, and 579 RIN 2127-AK72 Early Warning...'s VIN may be found in the August 20, 2013 final rule. Id. Manufacturers with early warning reporting... logging in to the EWR system, the document labeled ``NEW-- Technical Specifications for VIN Lookup...

  10. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel... production numbers for child restraint systems, tires, and vehicles other than light vehicles, as defined in...

  11. Decision-tree early warning score (DTEWS) validates the design of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS).

    PubMed

    Badriyah, Tessy; Briggs, James S; Meredith, Paul; Jarvis, Stuart W; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2014-03-01

    To compare the performance of a human-generated, trial and error-optimised early warning score (EWS), i.e., National Early Warning Score (NEWS), with one generated entirely algorithmically using Decision Tree (DT) analysis. We used DT analysis to construct a decision-tree EWS (DTEWS) from a database of 198,755 vital signs observation sets collected from 35,585 consecutive, completed acute medical admissions. We evaluated the ability of DTEWS to discriminate patients at risk of cardiac arrest, unanticipated intensive care unit admission or death, each within 24h of a given vital signs observation. We compared the performance of DTEWS and NEWS using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The structures of DTEWS and NEWS were very similar. The AUROC (95% CI) for DTEWS for cardiac arrest, unanticipated ICU admission, death, and any of the outcomes, all within 24h, were 0.708 (0.669-0.747), 0.862 (0.852-0.872), 0.899 (0.892-0.907), and 0.877 (0.870-0.883), respectively. Values for NEWS were 0.722 (0.685-0.759) [cardiac arrest], 0.857 (0.847-0.868) [unanticipated ICU admission}, 0.894 (0.887-0.902) [death], and 0.873 (0.866-0.879) [any outcome]. The decision-tree technique independently validates the composition and weightings of NEWS. The DT approach quickly provided an almost identical EWS to NEWS, although one that admittedly would benefit from fine-tuning using clinical knowledge. We believe that DT analysis could be used to quickly develop candidate models for disease-specific EWSs, which may be required in future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modified Early Warning Score and VitalPac Early Warning Score in geriatric patients admitted to emergency department.

    PubMed

    Dundar, Zerrin Defne; Ergin, Mehmet; Karamercan, Mehmet A; Ayranci, Kursat; Colak, Tamer; Tuncar, Alpay; Cander, Basar; Gul, Mehmet

    2016-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the VitalPac Early Warning Score (VIEWS) in predicting hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in geriatric emergency department (ED) patients. This prospective, single-centered observational study was carried out over 1 month at the ED of a university hospital in patients 65 years of age and older presenting to the ED. The vital parameters of the patients measured on admission to ED were recorded. The MEWS and VIEWS were calculated using the recorded physiological parameters of the patients. Hospitalization and in-hospital mortality were used as the primary outcomes. A total of 671 patients included in the study. The median age of the patients was 75 (11) years, and 375 (55.9%) were men. The MEWS is effective for discriminating patient groups that have been discharged from ED, admitted to a ward and admitted to ICU [1 (2) vs. 1 (1) vs. 3 (3), respectively, P<0.001]. The VIEWS is also effective for discriminating patient groups that have been discharged from ED, admitted to a ward, and admitted to ICU [2 (3) vs. 5 (5) vs. 8 (8), respectively, P<0.001]. The AUCs of the MEWS and VIEWS were 0.727 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.689-0.765] and 0.756 (95% CI 0.720-0.792) in predicting hospitalization, respectively. The AUCs of the MEWS and VIEWS were 0.891 (95% CI 0.844-0.937) and 0.900 (95% CI 0.860-0.941) in predicting in-hospital mortality, respectively. The MEWS and VIEWS are powerful scoring systems that are easy-to-use for predicting the hospitalization and in-hospital mortality of geriatric ED patients.

  13. [Construction of index system for early warning of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) pollution incidents in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Lin; Lü, Yong-Long; He, Gui-Zhen; Wang, Tie-Yu

    2014-10-01

    Early warning of pollution incidents caused by persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is urgently needed for China in the circumstances of serious POPs pollution and in increasing demand for improvement in chemical risk management. Given different categories of POPs and pollution incidents, the index system for early warning of POPs pollution accidents was built based on lifecycle theory and POPs formation mechanisms. It will be helpful for decision makers to enhance the early warning management of POPs pollution incidents in China. The index system for early warning includes two parts, early warning and mechanism for system operation. The indices include risk source indicators, warning indicators and warning level indicators. To ensure the effective implementation of this system, the mechanisms for response and policy guarantee were also formulated. These mechanisms contain dynamic inventory management and periodical assessment of risk sources, timely and effective report of warning conditions, as well as coordination and cooperation among the relevant departments.

  14. [Application of Big Data Mining Technology in Monitoring and Early-warning of Schistosomiasis].

    PubMed

    Yang, Kun; Li, Shi-zhu

    2015-12-01

    The prevalence of schistosomiasis will soon be controlled to a low level in China. It is therefore imperative to establish a more sensitive and effective early warning system for schistosomiasis, so as to consolidate the achievements of the disease control. By covering four topics including the importance of early warning system for schistosomiasis and its research direction, as well as recent development in big data mining and its application in monitoring and early-warning of schistosomiasis, this review discusses the feasibility of data mining technology for monitoring and early warning of the disease. It is hoped that this technology would increase the efficacy of studies on monitoring and early warning, and promote the elimination of schistosomiasis in China.

  15. Catastrophic Collapse Can Occur without Early Warning: Examples of Silent Catastrophes in Structured Ecological Models

    PubMed Central

    Boerlijst, Maarten C.; Oudman, Thomas; de Roos, André M.

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred. PMID:23593506

  16. [Study on early-warning of Chinese materia medica price base on ARMA model].

    PubMed

    Chang, Feng; Mao, Yang-Dui

    2014-05-01

    This study sets up an early-warning system framework of Chinese materia medica price, using price index as early warning indicator to establish black early-warning model, with indicator of price index volatility and limit line of "price principal". The research divides warning degree into 5 parts named negative heavy warning, negative light warning, no warning, positive light warning and positive heavy warning, with 5 corresponding lights to describe the change level of the medicine price. Then make an early-warning empirical research based on Chengdu Chinese materia medica price index from December in 2010 to October in 2013. ARMA model is applied to forecast index and the result of early-warning is analyzed, and finally farmer households, companies, customers and the government are recommended respectively.

  17. [Influence of data quality on early warning sensitivity of syndromic surveillance system based on medical institutions].

    PubMed

    Yang, S L; Yu, M; Fan, Y Z; Huang, J; Nie, S F; Wei, S

    2016-11-10

    Objective: To evaluate the influence of data quality on the sensitivity of early warning syndromic surveillance system based on medical institutions in Qianjiang, Hubei province and explore the relationship between data quality and sensitivity of early warning of the system. Methods: The delay reporting rate and underreporting rate were calculated for the evaluation of the data quality. Data obtained from semi-synthetic simulated outbreak and area under the curve (AUC) were used in combination to test the sensitivity of early warning of various models and select the optimal model. Time-series generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the curve fitting and threshold effect between data quality and early warning sensitivity of the system. Results: A total of 179 905 cases were reported from April 1, 2012 to January 31, 2014, in which 8 744 were not reported timely (16.45%). Averagely 416 reporting were delayed in each month. There were 2 566 cases which were underreported (4.83%). Compared with other early warning models, i.e. Cumulative Sum (CUSUM), Shewhart, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS-3C), the MA model had the maximum area under the curve (AUC=0.93), and the difference was significant (P<0.001). The early warning sensitivity ranged from 84.89% to 97.25% during the operation period of the syndromic surveillance system. Underreporting had influence on early warning sensitivity, when underreporting rate was over 2.78%, the sensitivity would decrease obviously. No obvious associations were observed between the delay reporting rate and early warning sensitivity of the system. Conclusion: The data quality had influence on the early warning sensitivity of the syndromic surveillance system based on medical institution in Qianjiang. In the context of this study, underreporting had the main influence on the sensitivity of early warning.

  18. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  19. An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2010-12-01

    The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart

  20. Early-warning signals for catastrophic soil degradation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karssenberg, Derek

    2010-05-01

    Many earth systems have critical thresholds at which the system shifts abruptly from one state to another. Such critical transitions have been described, among others, for climate, vegetation, animal populations, and geomorphology. Predicting the timing of critical transitions before they are reached is of importance because of the large impact on nature and society associated with the transition. However, it is notably difficult to predict the timing of a transition. This is because the state variables of the system show little change before the threshold is reached. As a result, the precision of field observations is often too low to provide predictions of the timing of a transition. A possible solution is the use of spatio-temporal patterns in state variables as leading indicators of a transition. It is becoming clear that the critically slowing down of a system causes spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance to increase before the transition. Thus, spatio-temporal patterns are important candidates for early-warning signals. In this research we will show that these early-warning signals also exist in geomorphological systems. We consider a modelled vegetation-soil system under a gradually increasing grazing pressure causing an abrupt shift towards extensive soil degradation. It is shown that changes in spatio-temporal patterns occur well ahead of this catastrophic transition. A distributed model describing the coupled processes of vegetation growth and geomorphological denudation is adapted. The model uses well-studied simple process representations for vegetation and geomorphology. A logistic growth model calculates vegetation cover as a function of grazing pressure and vegetation growth rate. Evolution of the soil thickness is modelled by soil creep and wash processes, as a function of net rain reaching the surface. The vegetation and soil system are coupled by 1) decreasing vegetation growth with decreasing soil thickness and 2) increasing soil wash with

  1. Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C.; Budde, M. E.; Lietzow, R.; Senay, G. B.; Smith, R.; Pedreros, D.; Rowland, J.; Artan, G. A.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Adoum, A.; Galu, G.; Magadzire, T.; Rodriguez, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) makes quantitative estimates of food insecure populations, and identifies the places and periods during which action must be taken to assist them. Subsistence agriculture and pastoralism are the predominant livelihood systems being monitored, and they are especially drought-sensitive. At the same time, conventional climate observation networks in developing countries are often sparse and late in reporting. Consequently, remote sensing has played a significant role since FEWS NET began in 1985. Initially there was heavy reliance on vegetation index imagery from AVHRR to identify anomalies in landscape greenness indicative of drought. In the latter part of the 1990s, satellite rainfall estimates added a second, independent basis for identification of drought. They are used to force crop water balance models for the principal rainfed staple crops in twenty FEWS NET countries. Such models reveal seasonal moisture deficits associated with yield reduction on a spatially continuous basis. In 2002, irrigated crops in southwest Asia became a concern, and prompted the implementation of a gridded energy balance model to simulate the seasonal mountain snow pack, the main source of irrigation water. MODIS land surface temperature data are also applied in these areas to directly estimate actual seasonal evapotranspiration on the irrigated lands. The approach reveals situations of reduced irrigation water supply and crop production due to drought. The availability of MODIS data after 2000 also brought renewed interest in vegetation index imagery. MODIS NDVI data have proven to be of high quality, thanks to significant spectral and spatial resolution improvements over AVHRR. They are vital to producing rapid harvest assessments for drought-impacted countries in Africa and Asia. The global food crisis that emerged in 2008 has led to expansion of FEWS NET monitoring to over 50 additional countries. Unlike previous practice, these

  2. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  3. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  4. A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform

  5. Earthquake early warning for Israel: Recommended implementation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamiel, Yariv; Baer, Gidon; Allen, Richard; Clinton, John; Hofstetter, Rami; Pinsky, Vladimir; Ziv, Alon; Zollo, Aldo

    2013-04-01

    The Government of Israel has resolved on June 7, 2012 to build a nationwide Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS). Towards this goal, the Israeli Earth and Marine Research Administration (EMRA) assembled an advisory committee, composed of international EEW experts and Israeli scientists. The proposed system is planned to provide earthquake warning to schools around the nation within 2 years of project commencement, and nationwide warning beyond a period of 3 years. The Israeli EEWS will be constructed as a seismic fence along the major fault systems, and will be integrated into the regional Israeli Seismic Network (ISN). The seismic equipment at the entire integrated network will be of similar standards. The recommended alarm approach for Israel will be hybrid: an S-wave based threshold alert will be merged with a P-wave based algorithm. The S-wave based threshold algorithm will alert when two or more seismic stations observe ground shaking above a pre-defined strong shaking level. The P-wave based algorithm uses waves which travel about twice as fast as S-waves to detect earthquakes, characterize the source magnitude and location, and then issue an alert based on predicted shaking. This approach allows for location specific alerts and regular testing through detection of smaller earthquakes, and will be useful for events occurring far from the known major faults. The proposed new seismic network to be installed is as follows: A total number of about 50 accelerometer-only sites will be deployed close to the Dead Sea and Carmel Faults in a single line of stations every ~10 km, south of the Dead Sea, and in a staggered geometry from the Dead Sea northward. Five additional sites with co-located seismometers and accelerometers should be deployed at large spacing along the Dead Sea Fault. The feasibility of the system is confirmed by travel-time calculations. The new seismic network will provide a significant amount of geophysical data that should be effectively mined

  6. Earthquake early warning for Romania - most recent improvements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Cioflan, Carmen; Toader, Victorin; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marius Craiu, George; Ionescu, Constantin

    2014-05-01

    EWS for Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. In the last years, National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. Currently the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) operates a real-time seismic network designed to monitor the seismic activity on the Romania territory, dominated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth (60-200 km) earthquakes. The NIEP real-time network consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor). Recent improvement of the seismic network and real-time communication technologies allows implementation of a nation-wide EEWS for Vrancea and other seismic sources from Romania. We present a regional approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Romania earthquakes. The regional approach is based on PRESTo (Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) software platform: PRESTo processes in real-time three channel acceleration data streams: once the P-waves arrival have been detected, it provides earthquake location and magnitude estimations, and peak ground motion predictions at target sites. PRESTo is currently implemented in real- time at National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest for several months in parallel with a secondary EEWS. The alert notification is issued only when both systems validate each other. Here we present the results obtained using offline earthquakes originating from Vrancea area together with several real

  7. Overview of Existing Landslide Early-Warning Systems in Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    The project SafeLand is intended to develop generic risk management tools and strategies for landslides. Indeed, the intention of the screening study is to provide guidelines that will help and facilitate the establishment of new early warning systems (EWS) and to increase the quality of existing systems (Bazin et al., 2012). Consequently, one of the first steps is to merge actual knowledge and expert judgments. Thus, as part of this study, we gathered experiences from organizations in charge of landslide EWSs and risk management in order to compile information about the state of the art technologies and existing strategies. To ensure those objectives, a questionnaire was produced by UNIL, ICG and ÅTB. Divided in 5 parts, the questionnaires collected information about: 1. General information on the unit in charge of the EWS; 2. Knowledge about the monitored landslide; 3. Pre-investigations used to design the EWS; 4. Monitoring parameters, thresholds and sensors evaluation; 5. Warnings, communications and decision making process. Finally, sent in June 2011 to about hundred organizations in charge of one or several EWS, 14 institutions from 8 countries sent the questionnaires back during the summer and autumn 2011, speaking about 23 landslides. The compilation and analysis of the most interesting answers are the scope of this poster. First, there are no common requirements to design and operate EWSs. From the surveyed countries, only Norway and Slovakia have produced codes or recommendations for this purpose. Secondly, more than 81% of the EWSs are based on displacement monitoring, certainly because it is the direct evidence of deformations. Then the weather conditions are monitored for more than half of the cases. It is also an essential parameter since rainfalls are a destabilizing factor for more than 80% of the studied landslides. Then, advantages and limitations of existing EWSs are clearly defined. Indeed, an EWS should be (1) robust, (2) simple, (3) redundant

  8. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  9. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  10. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  11. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

    2015-04-01

    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  12. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    PubMed Central

    Squartini, Tiziano; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of ‘systemic’ risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998–2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear – but unpredictable – signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies. PMID:24285089

  13. Stationary early warning system for bird strike prevention in aviation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Holger; Muenzberg, Mario; Schlemmer, Harry; Haan, Hubertus; Baader, Paul; Herden, Klaus; Fardi, Basel; Schlosshauer, Jan

    2009-05-01

    In case bird migration routes cross approach corridors near airports bird strike prevention with thermal imaging systems has advantages compared to others technologies i.e. RADAR systems. In our case a stereoscopic thermal imaging system sensitive in the mid wavelength range (3 - 5 μm) with high geometrical (640 × 512 pixel) and high thermal resolution (< 20 mK) measures in real time the swarm size, direction and velocity with high accuracy in order to give an early warning under all relevant weather conditions during day, night and twilight. The system is self-calibrating to keep the relative position of the paired stereoscopic thermal imagers in the sub-pixel range under all environmental conditions. The stereoscopic systems are placed in a sufficient distance to the crossing with the take-off or landing path to enable warning times of several minutes. Moreover the risk potential of the swarm is determined by taking the size of a single bird as well as the number of birds in the swarm into account. By using this information an arrival time of the swarm at the crossing point is determined and provided to the air security controllers together with the risk potential of the swarm.

  14. Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder.

    PubMed

    Doncaster, C Patrick; Alonso Chávez, Vasthi; Viguier, Clément; Wang, Rong; Zhang, Enlou; Dong, Xuhui; Dearing, John A; Langdon, Peter G; Dyke, James G

    2016-11-01

    Global environmental change presents a clear need for improved leading indicators of critical transitions, especially those that can be generated from compositional data and that work in empirical cases. Ecological theory of community dynamics under environmental forcing predicts an early replacement of slowly replicating and weakly competitive "canary" species by slowly replicating but strongly competitive "keystone" species. Further forcing leads to the eventual collapse of the keystone species as they are replaced by weakly competitive but fast-replicating "weedy" species in a critical transition to a significantly different state. We identify a diagnostic signal of these changes in the coefficients of a correlation between compositional disorder and biodiversity. Compositional disorder measures unpredictability in the composition of a community, while biodiversity measures the amount of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi-decadal time series of fossil diatom and chironomid communities from lakes in China. The characteristic switch from positive to negative correlation coefficients occurs for both communities up to three decades preceding a critical transition to a sustained alternate state. This signal is robust to unequal time increments that beset the identification of early-warning signals from other metrics. © 2016 The Authors. Ecology, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Ecological Society of America.

  15. Collaborative Demonstration for GNSS-augmented Tsunami Early Warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stough, T.; Green, D. S.

    2016-12-01

    Augmented capability for tsunami early warning speed and accuracy using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment is being evaluated and tested. This collaborative demonstration brings together the results from four NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Each of three NASA research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable data stream. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs. A number of seismogeodetic station measurements with a combination of position and accelerometer data are also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as an algorithm that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaborative demonstration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs warnings over the current seismometer based methods.

  16. European Neolithic societies showed early warning signals of population collapse

    PubMed Central

    Downey, Sean S.; Haas, W. Randall; Shennan, Stephen J.

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystems on the verge of major reorganization—regime shift—may exhibit declining resilience, which can be detected using a collection of generic statistical tests known as early warning signals (EWSs). This study explores whether EWSs anticipated human population collapse during the European Neolithic. It analyzes recent reconstructions of European Neolithic (8–4 kya) population trends that reveal regime shifts from a period of rapid growth following the introduction of agriculture to a period of instability and collapse. We find statistical support for EWSs in advance of population collapse. Seven of nine regional datasets exhibit increasing autocorrelation and variance leading up to collapse, suggesting that these societies began to recover from perturbation more slowly as resilience declined. We derive EWS statistics from a prehistoric population proxy based on summed archaeological radiocarbon date probability densities. We use simulation to validate our methods and show that sampling biases, atmospheric effects, radiocarbon calibration error, and taphonomic processes are unlikely to explain the observed EWS patterns. The implications of these results for understanding the dynamics of Neolithic ecosystems are discussed, and we present a general framework for analyzing societal regime shifts using EWS at large spatial and temporal scales. We suggest that our findings are consistent with an adaptive cycling model that highlights both the vulnerability and resilience of early European populations. We close by discussing the implications of the detection of EWS in human systems for archaeology and sustainability science. PMID:27573833

  17. European Neolithic societies showed early warning signals of population collapse.

    PubMed

    Downey, Sean S; Haas, W Randall; Shennan, Stephen J

    2016-08-30

    Ecosystems on the verge of major reorganization-regime shift-may exhibit declining resilience, which can be detected using a collection of generic statistical tests known as early warning signals (EWSs). This study explores whether EWSs anticipated human population collapse during the European Neolithic. It analyzes recent reconstructions of European Neolithic (8-4 kya) population trends that reveal regime shifts from a period of rapid growth following the introduction of agriculture to a period of instability and collapse. We find statistical support for EWSs in advance of population collapse. Seven of nine regional datasets exhibit increasing autocorrelation and variance leading up to collapse, suggesting that these societies began to recover from perturbation more slowly as resilience declined. We derive EWS statistics from a prehistoric population proxy based on summed archaeological radiocarbon date probability densities. We use simulation to validate our methods and show that sampling biases, atmospheric effects, radiocarbon calibration error, and taphonomic processes are unlikely to explain the observed EWS patterns. The implications of these results for understanding the dynamics of Neolithic ecosystems are discussed, and we present a general framework for analyzing societal regime shifts using EWS at large spatial and temporal scales. We suggest that our findings are consistent with an adaptive cycling model that highlights both the vulnerability and resilience of early European populations. We close by discussing the implications of the detection of EWS in human systems for archaeology and sustainability science.

  18. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  19. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  20. Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

  1. Nipple Discharge: An Early Warning Sign of Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Parthasarathy, Veda; Rathnam, Usharani

    2012-01-01

    Nipple discharge (ND) can be the earliest presenting symptom of breast cancer. We hereby present two cases of breast cancer with no palpable mass manifesting as isolated ND, which was whitish in color. In both cases, cytology of the discharge revealed highly pleomorphic cells indicating a high grade malignancy. Mammography showed diffuse, extensive microcalcifications. Simple mastectomy with axillary clearance was done. Histology in both cases revealed diffusely spreading intraductal carcinoma, with focus of microinvasion in one case. ND if scanty or not blood stained is often ignored by the patients and at times, the clinicians. This article highlights that ND can be an early warning sign of intraductal carcinomas that are non-invasive in early stage. Irrespective of the color or nature of the discharge, unilateral ND needs to be evaluated. Proper clinical assessment, cytological evaluation of the ND, and mammography ought to be performed in all such cases. Considering the low level of awareness in women regarding the warning signs of breast cancer, the current focus is to create “breast awareness.” Women should be sensitized to recognize any unusual changes in their breasts and report to their health care providers at the earliest. PMID:23189234

  2. Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.

    PubMed

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2016-06-01

    Monitoring and control of water treatment plants play an essential role in ensuring high quality drinking water and avoiding health-related problems or economic losses. The most common quality variables, which can be used also for assessing the efficiency of the water treatment process, are turbidity and residual levels of coagulation and disinfection chemicals. In the present study, the trend indices are developed from scaled measurements to detect warning signs of changes in the quality variables of drinking water and some operating condition variables that strongly affect water quality. The scaling is based on monotonically increasing nonlinear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. Deviation indices are used to assess the severity of situations. The study shows the potential of the described trend analysis as a predictive monitoring tool, as it provides an advantage over the traditional manual inspection of variables by detecting changes in water quality and giving early warnings.

  3. Spatial early warning signals in a lake manipulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Butitta, Vince L; Carpenter, Stephen R; Loken, Luke; Pace, Michael L; Stanley, Emily H.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid changes in state have been documented for many of Earth's ecosystems. Despite a growing toolbox of methods for detecting declining resilience or early warning indicators (EWIs) of ecosystem transitions, these methods have rarely been evaluated in whole-ecosystem trials using reference ecosystems. In this study, we experimentally tested EWIs of cyanobacteria blooms based on changes in the spatial structure of a lake. We induced a cyanobacteria bloom by adding nutrients to an experimental lake and mapped fine-resolution spatial patterning of cyanobacteria using a mobile sensor platform. Prior to the bloom, we detected theoretically predicted spatial EWIs based on variance and spatial autocorrelation, as well as a new index based on the extreme values. Changes in EWIs were not discernible in an unenriched reference lake. Despite the fluid environment of a lake where spatial heterogeneity driven by biological processes may be overwhelmed by physical mixing, spatial EWIs detected an approaching bloom suggesting the utility of spatial metrics for signaling ecological thresholds.

  4. Clinician Perceptions of an Early Warning System on Patient Safety.

    PubMed

    de Vries, Aisha; Draaisma, Jos M T; Fuijkschot, Joris

    2017-10-01

    The Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) aims to improve early recognition of clinical deterioration and is widely used despite lacking evidence of effects on outcome measures such as hospital mortality. In this qualitative study, we aimed to study effects of both PEWS and the locally designed risk stratification system by focusing on professionals' perception of their performance. We also sought to gain insight into the perceived effects of PEWS and the risk stratification system on patient safety and to unravel the underlying mechanisms. A single-center cross-sectional observational study whereby 16 semistructured interviews were held with selected health care professionals focusing on perceived effects and underlying mechanisms. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded without using a predetermined set of themes. Coding from semistructured interviews demonstrated that perceived value was related to effects on different levels of Endsley and co-workers' situational awareness (SA) model. PEWS mainly improved level 1 SA, whereas the risk stratification system also seemed to improve levels 2 and 3 SA. This study shows clear effects of PEWS on SA among professionals. It also points to the additional value of other risk factor stratification systems to help further improve PEWS functioning. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  5. Prevention of unplanned intensive care unit admissions and hospital mortality by early warning systems.

    PubMed

    Mapp, Ila D; Davis, Leslie L; Krowchuk, Heidi

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have found that patients exhibit physiological changes up to 8 hours prior to an arrest event. Deaths have been attributed to a lack of observation, lack of documentation of observations, inability of a caregiver to recognize early signs of deterioration, and lack of communication between healthcare providers. This integrative review examines early warning scoring systems and their effectiveness in predicting a patient's potential for deterioration and considers whether these scoring systems prevent unplanned intensive care unit admissions and/or death. Three databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL [Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature], and the Cochrane Collaboration) were searched to identify the instruments and clinical support systems available to assist healthcare personnel in recognizing early clinical deterioration. Key search words included modified early warning score, early warning score, early warning systems, deteriorating patient, patients at risk, shock index, track and trigger systems, and failure to rescue. Two prior literature reviews examined early warning scoring systems and their effects on patient outcomes; however, the most recent one reviewed only articles published before 2007. This review examined studies of early warning systems and the incorporation of clinical support published from 2007 to 2012. Nine studies fitting the search criteria were included in this review. Early warning scoring systems that interface with electronic medical records and are supplemented with decision aides (algorithms) and clinical support systems produce an effective screening system for early identification of deteriorating patients. This multifaceted approach decreases unplanned intensive care unit admissions and hospital mortality.

  6. Developing a NIDIS Drought Early Warning Information System for Coastal Ecosystems in the Carolinas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, L. S.; Dow, K.; Lackstrom, K.; Brennan, A.; Tufford, D. L.; Conrads, P.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Mcnutt, C. A.; Deheza, V.

    2013-12-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is in the process of developing drought early warning systems in areas of the U.S. where the coordination of drought information is critically needed. These regional drought early warning systems will become the backbone of a national drought early warning information system. Plans for the first drought early warning system started in the fall of 2008 in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), with an initial focus on the water supply in the head waters region of the Colorado River and the impacts of changes in the water supply on the UCRB. Since the establishment of the UCRB drought early warning system, other regional programs have begun in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, four regions in the state of California, the Southern Plains, and the Four Corners region. (At this time these are considered pilot drought early warning programs, not full-fledged drought early warning systems such as the UCRB.) Activities in each of these regions are tailored to the needs of stakeholders, and all incorporate hydrometeorological predictions. However, in all of these areas NIDIS has not focused on the specific needs of coastal ecosystems during times of drought. Over the past year, NIDIS has started a pilot drought early warning system that addresses drought in the coastal ecosystems of North and South Carolina. This pilot is being developed in partnership with the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a NOAA Regional Sciences and Assessments program housed at the University of South Carolina. Currently the focus of the Carolinas pilot includes the promotion of enhanced drought impact reporting to better understand the impacts of low flows on coastal ecosystems and the development of a USGS real-time salinity network for a few coastal gage stations in the Carolinas. The roles of the enhanced drought impact assessments in coastal ecosystems and the knowledge gained from a real

  7. Feasibility and Reliability of Pediatric Early Warning Score in the Emergency Department.

    PubMed

    Niu, Xun; Tilford, Bradley; Duffy, Elizabeth; Kobayashi, Hitomi; Ryan, Kelley; Johnson, Mindi; Page, Bethany; Martin, Claire; Caldwell, Rhonda; Mahajan, Prashant

    2016-01-01

    Pediatric early warning scores in an emergency department may be used in routine patient evaluation of illness severity and resource allocation, thereby positively impacting quality and safety in pediatric care. This prospective nursing study assessed the feasibility and reliability of pediatric early warning scores in a busy, inner-city, level 1 trauma center pediatric emergency department. The pediatric early warning scores demonstrated high interrater reliability (degree of agreement among scorers) (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91) and intrarater reliability (multiple repetitions by a single scorer) (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.90).

  8. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  9. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  10. Generic tsunami scenarios for disasters and early warning preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillande, Richard; Gardi, Annalisa; Valencia, Nathalia; Salaün, Tugdual

    2010-05-01

    The implementation of the tsunami early warning systems in the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean regions will occur in countries with no preparedness and very little knowledge of potentially affected coastal zones by the various tsunami sources. The final link to coastal communities will be sirens to distribute in the concerned areas. The SCHEMA project aims at elaboration of a generic method to consider various parameters of a particular tsunami scenario. A scenario corresponds to a specific source with a given magnitude or intensity. Since we do not consider only the remote sources with possibilities of warning, local earthquake and submarine landslides are also translated in scenarios to allow the civil protections, municipalities and local stakeholders to assess cases with no real warning possibility, where life will be saved by self evacuation in nearby shelter areas or buildings. The specific temporal dimension of tsunami phenomenon is considered. Oceanic propagation time, expected duration of dangerous waves and wavelength are taken into account with their level of uncertainties. Scenarios are presented by maps and layouts with various information: inundation extension, submersion depth, receding sea limit, currents velocity or modulus of flow, modeled damage level to buildings, affected networks and lifelines. Variable dimensions such as residing or working population, by hour of the day and by season are also considered. Secondary vulnerability factors which may increase damage level to buildings are added (potentially floating objects which may turn into projectiles). The potential evacuation routes and obstacles are represented to support installation of warning networks and definition of shelters as well as evacuation routes. The scenarios are calculated using accurate digital bathymetric and topographic model with less than 10 m ground resolution allowing a very detailed mapping. This accuracy is especially important for scenarios with moderate waves for

  11. Optical-Fiber Strainmeters for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zumberge, M. A.; Agnew, D. C.; Hatfield, W.; Wyatt, F. K.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) includes two tasks: detecting an earthquake and estimating its size. Detection requires low instrumental noise; estimating the size can be done most simply by estimating the moment from the static (near-field) signal, which does not saturate with magnitude. The usual approach in EEW has been to use inertial sensors (detecting acceleration) for low noise, and GPS (measuring displacement) to determine the static signal. Because a strainmeter can combine low noise and broad frequency response in a single sensor, such systems should also be considered for EEW networks. While borehole strainmeters often do not record the static offset correctly, past results from longbase laser strainmeters (LSM's) show that this can be done reliably if the strain is measured over hundreds of meters. Recent developments in optical fiber LSM's have allowed the construction of low-cost, low-power long-base LSM's with low noise in the frequency band of interest. Digital processing of the interference signal makes possible a flat frequency response from 0 to 100 Hz and a high dynamic range, with the upper limit (strain of 0.1%) set by the tensioning of the fiber. Such instruments can be flexibly sited, including in locations, such as the ocean floor, impracticable for GPS. Application of such instruments to EEW will require further, though straightforward, development of processing methods and installation techniques, as well as testing under conditions of high dynamic strain; additional modeling will be needed to determine the optimal use LSM's in an EEW seismometer/GPS network.

  12. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2014-05-01

    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  13. Investigations on Real-time GPS for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grapenthin, R.; Aranha, M. A.; Melgar, D.; Allen, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a software system developed in a collaboration between the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) and New Mexico Tech (NMT) primarily for real-time Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). It currently uses high rate (1Hz), low latency (< ~5 seconds), accurate positioning (cm level) time series data from a regional GPS network and P-wave event triggers from existing EEW algorithms, e.g. ElarmS, to compute static offsets upon S-wave arrival. G-larmS performs a least squares inversion on these offsets to determine slip on a finite fault, which we use to estimate moment magnitude. These computations are repeated every second for the duration of the event. G-larmS has been in continuous operation at the BSL for over a year using event triggers from the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system and real-time position time series from a fully triangulated network consisting of BARD, PBO and USGS stations across northern California. Pairs of stations are processed as baselines using trackRT (MIT software package). G-larmS produced good results in real-time during the South Napa (M 6.0, August 2014) earthquake as well as on several replayed and simulated test cases. We evaluate the performance of G-larmS for EEW by analysing the results using a set of well defined test cases to investigate the following: (1) using multiple fault regimes and concurrent processing with the ultimate goal of achieving model generation (slip and magnitude computations) within each 1 second GPS epoch on very large magnitude earthquakes (up to M 9.0), (2) the use of Precise Point Positioning (PPP) real-time data streams of various operators, accuracies, latencies and formats along with baseline data streams, (3) collaboratively expanding EEW coverage along the U.S. West Coast on a regional network basis for Northern California, Southern California and Cascadia.

  14. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  15. USAID Expands eMODIS Coverage for Famine Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkerson, C.; Meyer, D. J.; Evenson, K.; Merritt, M.

    2011-12-01

    Food security in countries at risk is monitored by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through its Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) using many methods including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data processed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) into eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products. Near-real time production is used comparatively with trends derived from the eMODIS archive to operationally monitor vegetation anomalies indicating threatened cropland and rangeland conditions. eMODIS production over Central America and the Caribbean (CAMCAR) began in 2009, and processes 10-day NDVI composites every 5 days from surface reflectance inputs produced using predicted spacecraft and climatology information at Land and Atmosphere Near real time Capability for Earth Observing Systems (EOS) (LANCE). These expedited eMODIS composites are backed by a parallel archive of precision-based NDVI calculated from surface reflectance data ordered through Level 1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS). Success in the CAMCAR region led to the recent expansion of eMODIS production to include Africa in 2010, and Central Asia in 2011. Near-real time 250-meter products are available for each region on the last day of an acquisition interval (generally before midnight) from an anonymous file transfer protocol (FTP) distribution site (ftp://emodisftp.cr.usgs.gov/eMODIS). The FTP site concurrently hosts the regional historical collections (2000 to present) which are also searchable using the USGS Earth Explorer (http://edcsns17.cr.usgs.gov/NewEarthExplorer). As eMODIS coverage continues to grow, these geographically gridded, georeferenced tagged image file format (GeoTIFF) NDVI composites increase their utility as effective tools for operational monitoring of near-real time vegetation data against historical trends.

  16. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  17. Incorporating Hydroepidemiology into the Epidemia Malaria Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. EPIDEMIA incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. The system will enable forecasts that incorporate lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distributions of stagnant water bodies is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates, evapotranspiration (ET) calculated using a simplified surface energy balance model, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave radiometry. We used partial least squares regression to analyze and visualize seasonal patterns of these variables in relation to malaria cases using data from 49 districts in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Seasonal patterns of rainfall were strongly associated with the incidence and seasonality of malaria across the region, and model fit was improved by the addition of remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture variables. The results highlight the importance of remotely-sensed hydrological data for modeling malaria risk in this region and emphasize the value of an ensemble approach that utilizes multiple sources of information about precipitation and land surface wetness. These variables will be incorporated into the forecasting models at

  18. Operational real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grapenthin, R.; Johanson, I. A.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-10-01

    Moment magnitudes for large earthquakes (Mw≥7.0) derived in real time from near-field seismic data can be underestimated due to instrument limitations, ground tilting, and saturation of frequency/amplitude-magnitude relationships. Real-time high-rate GPS resolves the buildup of static surface displacements with the S wave arrival (assuming nonsupershear rupture), thus enabling the estimation of slip on a finite fault and the event's geodetic moment. Recently, a range of high-rate GPS strategies have been demonstrated on off-line data. Here we present the first operational system for real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning as implemented at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) and currently analyzing real-time data for Northern California. The BSL generates real-time position estimates operationally using data from 62 GPS stations in Northern California. A fully triangulated network defines 170+ station pairs processed with the software trackRT. The BSL uses G-larmS, the Geodetic Alarm System, to analyze these positioning time series and determine static offsets and preevent quality parameters. G-larmS derives and broadcasts finite fault and magnitude information through least-squares inversion of the static offsets for slip based on a priori fault orientation and location information. This system tightly integrates seismic alarm systems (CISN-ShakeAlert, ElarmS-2) as it uses their P wave detections to trigger its processing; quality control runs continuously. We use a synthetic Hayward Fault earthquake scenario on real-time streams to demonstrate recovery of slip and magnitude. Reanalysis of the Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake tests the impact of dynamic motions on offset estimation. Using these test cases, we explore sensitivities to disturbances of a priori constraints (origin time, location, and fault strike/dip).

  19. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Chen, Da-Yi

    2016-04-01

    For earthquake early warning (EEW) system, it is a difficult mission to accurately estimate earthquake magnitude in the early nucleation stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and the recorded seismic waveforms are short. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters within the initial portion of waveform after P-wave arrival. However, a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0) may take longer time to complete the whole ruptures of the causative fault. Instead of adopting amplitude contents in fixed-length time window, that may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events, we suppose a fast, robust and unsaturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. In this new method, the EEW system can initially give a bottom-bund magnitude in a few second time window and then update magnitude without saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for adopting amplitudes. One is pure P-wave time widow (PTW); the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW). The peak displacement amplitude in vertical component were adopted from 1- to 10-s length PTW and WTW, respectively. Linear regression analysis were implemented to find the empirical relationships between peak displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that using WTW to estimate magnitudes accompanies with smaller standard deviation. In addition, large uncertainties exist in the 1-second time widow. Therefore, for magnitude estimations we suggest the EEW system need to progressively adopt peak displacement amplitudes form 2- to 10-s WTW.

  20. Factors affecting response to national early warning score (NEWS).

    PubMed

    Kolic, Ivana; Crane, Smiley; McCartney, Suzanne; Perkins, Zane; Taylor, Alex

    2015-05-01

    The NEWS is a physiological score, which prescribes an appropriate response for the deteriorating patient in need of urgent medical care. However, it has been suggested that compliance with early warning scoring systems for identifying patient deterioration may vary out of hours. We aimed to (1) assess the scoring accuracy and the adequacy of the prescribed clinical responses to NEWS and (2) assess whether responses were affected by time of day, day of week and score severity. We performed a prospective observational study of 370 adult patients admitted to an acute medical ward in a London District General Hospital. Patient characteristics, NEW score, time of day, day of week and clinical response data were collected for the first 24h of admission. Patients with less than a 12h hospital stay were excluded. We analysed data with univariate and multivariate logistic regression. In 70 patients (18.9%) the NEW score was calculated incorrectly. There was a worsening of the clinical response with increasing NEW score. An appropriate clinical response to the NEWS was observed in 274 patients (74.1%). Patients admitted on the weekend were more likely to receive an inadequate response, compared to patients admitted during the week (p<0.0001). After adjusting for confounders, increasing NEWS score remained significantly associated with an inadequate clinical response. Furthermore, our results demonstrate a small increase in inadequate NEWS responses at night, however this was not clinically or statistically significant. The high rate of incorrectly calculated NEW scores has implications for the prescribed actions. Clinical response to NEWS score triggers is significantly worse at weekends, highlighting an important patient safety concern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. National early warning score (NEWS) - evaluation in surgery.

    PubMed

    Neary, Peter M; Regan, Mark; Joyce, Myles J; McAnena, Oliver J; Callanan, Ian

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate staff opinion on the impact of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) system on surgical wards. In 2012, the NEWS system was introduced to Irish hospitals on a phased basis as part of a national clinical programme in acute care. A modified established questionnaire was given to surgical nursing staff, surgical registrars, surgical senior house officers and surgical interns for completion six months following the introduction of the NEWS system into an Irish university hospital. Amongst the registrars, 89 per cent were unsure if the NEWS system would improve patient care. Less than half of staff felt consultants and surgical registrars supported the NEWS system. Staff felt the NEWS did not correlate well clinically with patients within the first 24 hours (Day zero) post-operatively. Furthermore, 78-85 per cent of nurses and registrars felt a rapid response team should be part of the escalation protocol. Senior medical staff were not convinced that the NEWS system may improve patient care. Appropriate audit proving a beneficial impact of the NEWS system on patient outcome may be essential in gaining support from senior doctors. Deficiencies with the system were also observed including the absence of a rapid response team as part of the escalation protocol and a lack of concordance of the NEWS in patients Day zero post-operatively. These issues should be addressed moving forward. Appropriate audit of the impact of the NEWS system on patient outcome may be pertinent to obtain the support from senior doctors. Deficiencies with the system were also observed including the absence of a rapid response team as part of the escalation protocol and a lack of concordance of the NEWS in patients Day zero post-operatively. These issues should be addressed moving forward.

  2. Avalanching glacier instabilities: Review on processes and early warning perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faillettaz, Jérome; Funk, Martin; Vincent, Christian

    2015-06-01

    Avalanching glacier instabilities are gravity-driven rupture phenomena that might cause major disasters, especially when they are at the origin of a chain of processes. Reliably forecasting such events combined with a timely evacuation of endangered inhabited areas often constitute the most efficient action. Recently, considerable efforts in monitoring, analyzing, and modeling such phenomena have led to significant advances in destabilization process understanding, improving early warning perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to review the recent progress in this domain. Three different types of instabilities can be identified depending on the thermal properties of the ice/bed interface. If cold (1), the maturation of the rupture is associated with a typical time evolution of surface velocities and passive seismic activity. A prediction of the final break off is possible using these precursory signs. For the two other types, water plays a key role in the development of the instability. If the ice/bed interface is partly temperate (2), the presence of meltwater may reduce the basal resistance, which promotes the instability. No clear and easily detectable precursory signs are known in this case, and the only way to infer any potential instability is to monitor the temporal evolution of the thermal regime. The last type of instability (3) concerns steep temperate glacier tongues switching for several days/weeks during the melting season into a so-called "active phase" followed in rare cases by a major break-off event. Although the prediction of such events is still far from being achievable, critical conditions promoting the final instability can be identified.

  3. Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

    PubMed

    Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

    2017-06-22

    Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

  4. EPA, NASA, NOAA and USGS Creating Early Warning System to Detect Harmful Algal Blooms

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    WASHINGTON- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that it is developing an early warning indicator system using historical and current satellite data to detect algal blooms. EPA researchers will develop a mobile app to inform water

  5. Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

    Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers' life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, "difficult selling cotton" and "difficult buying cotton" have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production's frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry's sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007's condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

  6. Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

    Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

  7. Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human-environment systems.

    PubMed

    Bauch, Chris T; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

    2016-12-20

    In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system's dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human-environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be "doomed to criticality": Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research.

  8. Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

    PubMed Central

    Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

    2016-01-01

    In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

  9. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration 1

    PubMed Central

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; de Camargo, Climene Laura; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. Method: a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. Results: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. Conclusion: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. PMID:28699997

  10. Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that provides invaluable information about the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid estimation of magnitude for earthquake and tsunami early warning purposes requires reliance on near-field instrumentation. For large magnitude events, ground motions can exceed the dynamic range of near-field broadband seismic instrumentation (clipping). Strong motion accelerometers are designed with low gains to better capture strong shaking. Estimating earthquake magnitude rapidly from near-source strong-motion data requires integration of acceleration waveforms to displacement. However, integration amplifies small errors, creating unphysical drift that must be eliminated with a high pass filter. The loss of the long period information due to filtering is an impediment to magnitude estimation in real-time; the relation between ground motion measured with strong-motion instrumentation and magnitude saturates, leading to underestimation of earthquake magnitude. Using station displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, we can supplement the high frequency information recorded by traditional seismic systems with long-period observations to better inform rapid response. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, ground motions measured with GNSS scale with magnitude without saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. We refine the current magnitude scaling relations using peak ground displacement (PGD) by adding a large GNSS dataset of earthquakes in Japan. Because it does not suffer from saturation, GNSS alone has significant advantages over seismic-only instrumentation for rapid magnitude estimation of large events. The earthquake's magnitude can be estimated within 2-3 minutes of earthquake onset time [Melgar et al., 2013]. We demonstrate that seismogeodesy, the optimal combination of GNSS and seismic data at collocated stations, provides the added benefit of improving the sensitivity of

  11. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.; Allen, R. M.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that can issue warnings prior to the arrival of strong ground shaking during an earthquake are essential in mitigating seismic hazard. Many of the currently operating EEW systems work on the basis of empirical magnitude-amplitude/frequency scaling relations for a point source. This approach is of limited effectiveness for large events, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, for which ignoring finite source effects may result in underestimation of the magnitude. Here, we explore the concept of characterizing rupture dimensions in real time for EEW using clusters of dense low-cost accelerometers located near active faults. Back tracing the waveforms recorded by such arrays allows the estimation of the earthquake rupture size, duration and directivity in real-time, which enables the EEW of M > 7 earthquakes. The concept is demonstrated with the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, one of the few big events (M>6) that have been recorded by a local small-scale seismic array (UPSAR array, Fletcher et al, 2006). We first test the approach against synthetic rupture scenarios constructed by superposition of empirical Green's functions. We find it important to correct for the bias in back azimuth induced by dipping structures beneath the array. We implemented the proposed methodology to the mainshock in a simulated real-time environment. After calibrating the dipping-layer effect with data from smaller events, we obtained an estimated rupture length of 9 km, consistent with the distance between the two main high frequency subevents identified by back-projection using all local stations (Allman and Shearer, 2007). We proposed to deploy small-scale arrays every 30 km along the San Andreas Fault. The array processing is performed in local processing centers at each array. The output is compared with finite fault solutions based on real-time GPS system and then incorporated into the standard ElarmS system. The optimal aperture and array geometry is

  12. Benefits of Earthquake Early Warning to Large Municipalities (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Featherstone, J.

    2013-12-01

    The City of Los Angeles has been involved in the testing of the Cal Tech Shake Alert, Earthquake Early Warning (EQEW) system, since February 2012. This system accesses a network of seismic monitors installed throughout California. The system analyzes and processes seismic information, and transmits a warning (audible and visual) when an earthquake occurs. In late 2011, the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department (EMD) was approached by Cal Tech regarding EQEW, and immediately recognized the value of the system. Simultaneously, EMD was in the process of finalizing a report by a multi-discipline team that visited Japan in December 2011, which spoke to the effectiveness of EQEW for the March 11, 2011 earthquake that struck that country. Information collected by the team confirmed that the EQEW systems proved to be very effective in alerting the population of the impending earthquake. The EQEW in Japan is also tied to mechanical safeguards, such as the stopping of high-speed trains. For a city the size and complexity of Los Angeles, the implementation of a reliable EQEW system will save lives, reduce loss, ensure effective and rapid emergency response, and will greatly enhance the ability of the region to recovery from a damaging earthquake. The current Shake Alert system is being tested at several governmental organizations and private businesses in the region. EMD, in cooperation with Cal Tech, identified several locations internal to the City where the system would have an immediate benefit. These include the staff offices within EMD, the Los Angeles Police Department's Real Time Analysis and Critical Response Division (24 hour crime center), and the Los Angeles Fire Department's Metropolitan Fire Communications (911 Dispatch). All three of these agencies routinely manage the collaboration and coordination of citywide emergency information and response during times of crisis. Having these three key public safety offices connected and included in the

  13. Implementation of a Seismic Early Warning System in Portugal Mainland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madureira, Guilherme; Carrilho, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    Portugal mainland is located near the border between the Eurasian and Nubian plates, whose interaction is the main responsible for a significant seismic activity in the area, with historical occurrence of several catastrophic events (e.g. Lisbon 1755 earthquake [Mag 8.7]), most of which haviguilhng epicenter rise in submerged area, located in the Cadiz Gulf and Southwest of San Vincent Cape. Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is presently a very effective concept to be applied in the mitigation of the effects caused by large earthquakes. For the mentioned area a feasibility study of a EEWS was made in the ALERT-ES project. It was found that the system could be effective to protect cities and infrastructures located at larger distances (ex: Lisbon) from the areas, located south and southwest of PT mainland, where the larger earthquakes are expected to be originated. Considering the use of a new strong-motion network recently implemented in the south of PT mainland, we concluded that the lead-times could be improved. We opted by the implementation of the well known computational platform PRESTO. In the adaptation of the mentioned platform to the local reality one of the challenges was the computation of fast moment magnitude estimates, because regional attenuation must be properly considered, and a specific study was made on this issue. The several simulations that were performed showed a reasonably good performance of the system, both on magnitude evaluation and epicentre location. However we also noted that the problems in the acquisition instruments are a very important source of disturbance in the performance of the EEWS, pointing to a need of a very accurate quality control of the strong-motion network. Considering end-users, we are also developing specific software for intensity estimation at the target places and to trigger visual and audio alerts in accordance to the expected level of shaking. This work is supported by the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM, Agreement Number

  14. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for early warning of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Da-Yi; Wu, Yih-Min; Chin, Tai-Lin

    2017-03-01

    The earthquake early warning (EEW) system is difficult to provide consistent magnitude estimate in the early stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and few seismic signals are recorded. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters using the initial portion of the recorded waveforms after P-wave arrival. However, for a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0), the time to complete the whole ruptures resulted from the corresponding fault may be very long. The magnitude estimations may not be correctly predicted by the initial portion of the seismograms. To estimate the magnitude of a large earthquake in real-time, the amplitude parameters should be updated with ongoing waveforms instead of adopting amplitude contents in a predefined fixed-length time window, since it may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events. In this paper, we propose a fast, robust and less-saturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. The EEW system will initially give a lower-bound of the magnitude in a time window with a few seconds and then update magnitude with less saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for measuring amplitudes. One is P-wave time window (PTW) after P-wave arrival; the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW), which may include both P and S wave. One to ten second time windows for both PTW and WTW are considered to measure the peak ground displacement from the vertical component of the waveforms. Linear regression analysis are run at each time step (1- to 10-s time interval) to find the empirical relationships among peak ground displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 in Taiwan with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that considering WTW to estimate magnitudes has smaller standard deviation than PTW. The

  15. Distributed Fiber Optic Sensors for Earthquake Detection and Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karrenbach, M. H.; Cole, S.

    2016-12-01

    up to 65 km away. Our analysis shows that existing fiber optic installations along infrastructure could be combined to form a large aperture array with tens of thousands of channels for epicenter estimation and for early warning purposes, augmenting existing earthquake sensor networks.

  16. Validation of pediatric early warning score in pediatric emergency department.

    PubMed

    Chaiyakulsil, Chanapai; Pandee, Uthen

    2015-08-01

    One of the most important functions of the emergency department (ED) is to assess patient status. Only one, the pediatric early warning score (PEWS), has been designed for ED with acceptable validity, but it has never been validated in Thailand. The objective of this study was to validate PEWS in predicting hospitalization in children visiting the ED. During the initial phase, two triage nurses performed blind scoring (in order to determine inter-rater reliability using kappa statistics) for the first 30 patients who presented to the ED at Ramathibodi Hospital between March and May 2014 and who were aged < 15 years. The second phase then consisted of validation and involved 1136 patients. Patients who presented with trauma, psychiatric, dental and surgical concerns were excluded. Validity of the scoring system in predicting admission was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Phase I demonstrated good inter-rater reliability (kappa = 0.75). In phase II, of the total group of 1136 patients, 168 patients (14.8%) were admitted: 162 to the general ward and six to the intensive care unit (ICU) during the study period. AUC for predicting overall, ICU, and general ward admission were 0.73 (95%CI: 0.68-0.77), 0.98 (95%CI: 0.96-1) and 0.71 (95%CI: 0.66-0.75), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity in predicting overall admission with a cut-off of PEWS ≥ 1 was 78% and 60%, respectively (PPV, 28%; NPV, 95%). Sensitivity and specificity in predicting ICU admission with the cut-off PEWS ≥ 3 was 100% and 91%, respectively (PPV, 5%; NPV, 100%). Using the cut-off PEWS ≥ 1, sensitivity and specificity in predicting ward admission were 77% and 59%, respectively (PPV, 24%; NPV, 94%). PEWS can be helpful in assessing patient status in pediatric ED with acceptable validity and can serve as a potentially excellent screening tool for

  17. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  18. The SAFER-Project and Seismic Early Warning in Europe (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.

    2009-12-01

    SAFER (Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope) is the first large scale scientific project in Europe on earthquake early warning. It is funded by the European Commission in the context of Framework Program 6 under the theme Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems. Its general objective is to develop knowledge and tools for increasing the capability of effective earthquake early warning in Europe and to implement and test these tools in selected European cities. The SAFER project was carried out between 2006 and 2009 by a consortium formed by 20 institutes from 11 European and Mediterranean countries (Germany, Italy, Greece, Romania, Switzerland, Norway, France, the Netherlands, Iceland, Turkey and Egypt) and one each from Japan, Taiwan and USA. Five major earthquake prone cities were chosen as test areas: Athens, Bucharest, Cairo, Istanbul and Naples. The combined population of these cities is about 40 million inhabitants and all have experienced severe earthquakes in recent years. SAFER is strongly multi-disciplinary, calling upon expertise in seismology, structural and geotechnical engineering, informatics and statistics. Some of the specific problems addressed are related to - the rapid determination of earthquake size, complex earthquake features, and damage potential; - the implementation of a fully probabilistic framework for applications of earthquake early warning based on cost-benefit analysis; - the development of a new generation of early warning systems being decentralised and people-centred, and - the implementation of the real-time “shake map”-technology in large European cities. The presentation will review the major scientific findings, comment on the improvements of the earthquake early warning capabilities achieved by SAFER in the five test cities, and present some ideas for the future development of earthquake early warning in Europe.

  19. The Earthquake Early Warning of Japan Meteorological Agency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, M.; Hirano, K.; Yamada, Y.; Kikuta, H.; Hoshiba, M.

    2013-05-01

    We review the operation of nationwide Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) of JMA. Then we show its performance of the cases of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) and its aftershocks. After that, we present some lessons from the experience and future plans to improve the system. JMA began to operate the EEW nationwide in October, 2007. We predict seismic intensities and arrival times of S waves after determining the hypocenter by a combination of several techniques; the magnitude by maximum displacement amplitudes. The main part of the system uses 220 stations. The JMA EEWs are updated repeatedly as available data increases with elapsed time. The JMA seismic intensity scale is based on instrumental measurements which consider not only the amplitude but also the frequency and duration of the shaking. The scale has 10 degrees. Intensities of 5 and 6 are divided into 2 degrees, namely 5-lower, 5-upper, 6-lower and 6-upper, respectively. Intensity 1 corresponds to the ground motion that people can barely detect and 7 is the upper limit. There are 2 categories for the JMA EEW. The first one is "forecast" for the limited users, and the other is "warning" for the public. We issue the forecast in the case where the estimated maximum intensity exceeds 2, or estimated magnitude is larger than 3.5. We announce the warning through TV and cell phones to the general public when we predict the maximum intensity 5-lower or larger to the areas where the estimated intensities exceed 3. The forecast is updated whenever it is necessary, but we provide the updated warning only when the estimated intensities become 5-lower or larger from less than 4 in some areas, and limit it within 60 s after the first detection. The warning of the EEW was disseminated 30 s after the Mw9.0 event occurrence, which was 8 s after the first detection. The estimated magnitude was 7.2 at the time and the warning was issued for Tohoku. We could provide the warning before the arrival of S

  20. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  1. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  2. Early warning system scores for clinical deterioration in hospitalized patients: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Smith, M E Beth; Chiovaro, Joseph C; O'Neil, Maya; Kansagara, Devan; Quiñones, Ana R; Freeman, Michele; Motu'apuaka, Makalapua L; Slatore, Christopher G

    2014-11-01

    Early warning system (EWS) scores are used by hospital care teams to recognize early signs of clinical deterioration and trigger more intensive care. To systematically review the evidence on the ability of early warning system scores to predict a patient's risk of clinical deterioration and the impact of early warning system implementation on health outcomes and resource utilization. We searched the MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases through May 2014. We included English-language studies of early warning system scores used with adults admitted to medical or surgical wards. We abstracted study characteristics, including population, setting, sample size, duration, and criteria used for early warning system scoring. For predictive ability, the primary outcomes were modeled for discrimination on 48-hour mortality, cardiac arrest, or pulmonary arrest. Outcomes for the impact of early warning system implementation included 30-day mortality, cardiovascular events, use of vasopressors, respiratory failure, days on ventilator, and resource utilization. We assessed study quality using a modified Quality in Prognosis Studies assessment tool where applicable. Of 11,183 citations studies reviewed, one controlled trial and 20 observational studies of 13 unique models met our inclusion criteria. In eight studies, researchers addressed the predictive ability of early warning system tools and found a strong predictive value for death (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.88-0.93) and cardiac arrest (AUROC, 0.74-0.86) within 48 hours. In 13 studies (one controlled trial and 12 pre-post observational studies), researchers addressed the impact on health outcomes and resource utilization and had mixed results. The one controlled trial was of good quality, and the researchers found no difference in mortality, transfers to the ICU, or length of hospital stay. The pre-post designs of the remaining studies have

  3. [Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

    PubMed

    Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

    2015-06-01

    Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

  4. The operational status of the Russian space-based early warning system

    SciTech Connect

    Podvig, P.

    1994-08-01

    Early warning against ballistic missile attack has played a very important role in the military doctrines of the United States and Russia. Both countries have deployed systems of early warning satellites that could detect an attack almost immediately after the missiles were launched. These systems were vital for providing a launch on warning capability that was an important building block of their deterrence policies. With the end of the Cold War, the probability of a large-scale nuclear conflict has practically disappeared and the mission of the early warning system has become more diversified. The new missions, such as detection of accidental or unauthorized launches or countering the emerging threat of ballistic missile launches from third-world countries, becoming almost equally important, could require an early warning system of a different kind. This article analyzes the capabilities of the currently deployed Russian space based early warning system and shows that the system could not be modified to be effectively used in the post Cold War environment.

  5. Determining the Orbit Locations of Turkish Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft Over the Turkish Air Space

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    DETERMINING THE ORBIT LOCATIONS OF TURKISH AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING AND CONTROL AIRCRAFT OVER THE...Defense, the U.S. Government. AFIT/GOR/ENS/09-14 DETERMINING THE ORBIT LOCATIONS OF TURKISH AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING AND CONTROL AIRCRAFT OVER THE...AFIT/GOR/09-14 DETERMINING THE ORBIT LOCATIONS OF TURKISH AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING AND CONTROL AIRCRAFT OVER THE TURKISH AIR SPACE Nebi

  6. Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse.

    PubMed

    Clements, Christopher F; Ozgul, Arpat

    2016-03-24

    Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse.

  7. An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

    PubMed

    Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

    2013-07-01

    An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

  8. Study on Early Warning of Cascading Failure for Power Grid Considering Wind Power Integration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guchao; Chen, Yixi; Ma, Gang; Zhao, Xinhong; Ju, Rong; Wang, Jiaming

    2017-05-01

    With the rapid development of wind power and the increasing degree of grid interconnection, the structure of power grid is becoming more and more complicated, and the operation mode is also more diversified. Some small disturbances may lead to cascading failure, or even collapse of grid. So it is important to study on cascading failure of complex grid. In this paper, the power model of wind power is first established, and the brittleness is used to evaluate the risk of brittle chain of cascading failure from two aspects: probability and severity. The brittle chain with high risk is forecasted. Then a method of early warning for cascading failure with power grid integration is proposed. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the early warning method are verified by IEEE 30-node example with wind farm. This method provides support for early warning of cascading failures.

  9. Early warning method of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods based on temperature and rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jingjing; Su, Pengcheng; Cheng, Zunlan

    2017-04-01

    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are serious disasters in glacial areas. At present, glaciers are retreating while glacial lake area and the outburst risk increases due to the global warming. Therefore, the research of early warning method of GLOFs is important to prevent and reduce the disasters. This paper provides an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices. The daily growth rate of positive antecedent accumulative temperature and the antecedent thirty days accumulative precipitation are calculated for 21 events of GLOF before 2010, based on data from the 21 meteorological stations nearby. The result shows that all the events are above the curve, TV = -0.0193RDC + 3.0018, which can be taken as the early warning threshold curve. This has been verified by the GLOF events in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.

  10. Behavior of Early Warnings near the Critical Temperature in the Two-Dimensional Ising Model.

    PubMed

    Morales, Irving O; Landa, Emmanuel; Angeles, Carlos Calderon; Toledo, Juan C; Rivera, Ana Leonor; Temis, Joel Mendoza; Frank, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of systems near critical points. These universal properties make it possible to estimate how far a system is from a critical threshold. Several early-warning signals have been reported in time series representing systems near catastrophic shifts. The proper understanding of these early-warnings may allow the prediction and perhaps control of these dramatic shifts in a wide variety of systems. In this paper we analyze this universal behavior for a system that is a paradigm of phase transitions, the Ising model. We study the behavior of the early-warning signals and the way the temporal correlations of the system increase when the system is near the critical point.

  11. Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

    PubMed

    Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

    2014-11-01

    To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

    2017-08-01

    China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

  13. Model slope infiltration experiments for shallow landslides early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damiano, E.; Greco, R.; Guida, A.; Olivares, L.; Picarelli, L.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of fast landslides has become more and more dangerous during the last decades, due to the increased density of settlements, industrial plants and infrastructures. Such problem is particularly worrying in Campania (Southern Italy), where the fast population growth led a diffuse building activity without planning: indeed, recent flowslides caused hundreds of victims and heavy damages to buildings, roads and other infrastructures. Large mountainous areas in Campania are mantled by loose pyroclastic granular soils up to a depth of a few meters from top soil surface. These soils have usually a grain size that falls in the domain of silty sands, including pumice interbeds (gravelly sands), with saturated hydraulic conductivities up to the order of 10-1 cm/min. Such deposits often cover steep slopes, which stability is guaranteed by the apparent cohesion due to suction under unsaturated conditions, that are the most common conditions for these slopes [Olivares and Picarelli, 2001]. Whereas rainfall infiltration causes soil to approach saturation, suction vanishes and slope failure may occur. Besides soil physical properties, landslide triggering is influenced by several factors, such as rainfall intensity, soil initial moisture and suction, slope inclination, boundary conditions. Whereas slope failure occurs with soil close to being saturated, landslide may develop in form of fast and destructive flowslide. Calibration of reliable mathematical models of such a complex phenomenon requires availability of experimental observations of the major variables of interest, such as soil moisture and suction, soil deformation and displacements, pore water pressure, during the entire process of infiltration until slope failure. Due to the sudden trigger and extremely rapid propagation of such type of landslides, such data sets are rarely available for natural slopes where flowslides occurred. As a consequence landslide risk assessment and early warning in Campania rely on

  14. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  15. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  16. Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

    2015-12-01

    A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

  17. Evaluation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score Across Different Subspecialty Patients.

    PubMed

    Dean, Nathan P; Fenix, J B; Spaeder, Michael; Levin, Amanda

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the ability of a Pediatric Early Warning Score to predict deterioration in different subspecialty patient populations. Single center, retrospective cohort study. Patients were classified into five groups: 1) cardiac; 2) hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant; 3) surgical; 4) neurologic; and 5) general medical. The relationship between the Pediatric Early Warning Score and unplanned ICU transfer requiring initiation of specific ICU therapies (intubation, high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive ventilation, inotropes, or aggressive fluid hydration within 12 hr of transfer) was evaluated. Tertiary care, free-standing, academic children's hospital. All hospitalized acute care patients admitted over a 6-month time period (September 2012 to March 2013). None. During the study time period, 33,800 patient-days and 136 deteriorations were evaluated. Area under the curve ranged from 0.88 (surgical) to 0.94 (cardiac). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 3 ranged from 75% (surgical) to 94% (cardiology) and number needed to evaluate to find one deterioration was 11.5 (neurologic) to 43 patients (surgical). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 4 ranged from 54% (general medical) to 79% (hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant) and number needed to evaluate of 5.5 (neurologic) to 12 patients (general medical). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score of greater than or equal to 5 ranged from 25% (surgical) to 58% (hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant) and number needed to evaluate of 3.5 (cardiac, hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant, neurologic) to eight patients (surgical). An elevated Pediatric Early Warning Score is associated with ICU transfer and receipt of ICU-specific interventions in patients across different pediatric subspecialty patient populations.

  18. Validation of the Children's Hospital Early Warning System for Critical Deterioration Recognition.

    PubMed

    McLellan, Mary C; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Connor, Jean Anne

    Early warning scores, such as the Children's Hospital Early Warning Score (CHEWS), are used by hospitals to identify patients at risk for critical deterioration and trigger clinicians to intervene and prevent further deterioration. This study's objectives were to validate the CHEWS and to compare the CHEWS to the previously validated Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) for early detection of critical deterioration in hospitalized, non-cardiac patients at a pediatric hospital. A retrospective cohort study reviewed medical and surgical patients at a quaternary academic pediatric hospital. CHEWS scores and abstracted PEWS scores were obtained on cases (n=360) and a randomly selected comparison sample (n=776). Specificity, sensitivity, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC) and early warning times were calculated for both scoring tools. The AUROC for CHEWS was 0.902 compared to 0.798 for PEWS (p<0.001). Sensitivity for scores ≥3 was 91.4% for CHEWS and 73.6% for PEWS with specificity of 67.8% for CHEWS and 88.5% for PEWS. Sensitivity for scores ≥5 was 75.6% for CHEWS and 38.9% for PEWS with specificity of 88.5% for CHEWS and 93.9% for PEWS. The early warning time from critical score (≥5) to critical deterioration was 3.8h for CHEWS versus 0.6h for PEWS (p<0.001). The CHEWS system demonstrated higher discrimination, higher sensitivity and longer early warning time than the PEWS for identifying children at risk for critical deterioration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)

    SciTech Connect

    Deshpande, Alina

    2016-07-13

    This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.

  20. ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2014-08-29

    Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

  1. A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

    2007-12-01

    In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to

  2. Early Warning Satellites: Funding for Follow-On System is Premature

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-11-01

    or replace the DSP system since 1979. However, the Air Force’s planned replacement in the early 1980s, referred to as the Advanced Warning System (Aws...of Defense or their stlccessors. Page l GAO/NSIAD92-39 Early Warning Satellites B-245604 In -1984, DOD transferred the AWS effort to the Strategic...DOD, the Secretary of Defense approved an implementation strategy for a scaled-down version of Aws, calling it the Follow-on Early Warning System

  3. [Research of medical equipment risk early warning system based on EAI].

    PubMed

    Zhong, Jianping; Li, Jing

    2014-05-01

    After signs of risk have been happened in risk management of medical equipment at present, reports are taken step by step. So there is a report not timely, incomplete information, it is difficult to monitor, and many other problems. With the improvement of risk management requirements; the development of the information technology s apply, and increasing sources of information used for risk early warning analysis. This paper analyzes the requirement of risk management, and proposes a total solution of enterprise risk early warning based on EAI. It will make managers accurately and fully grasp the risks, find risk signs timely, speed up the response to risk.

  4. Outline for establishment of the Taihu-Lake Basin early warning system.

    PubMed

    Li, Weixin; Zhang, Yongchun; Liu, Zhuang; Cai, Jinbang; Zhang, Xuxiang; Cheng, Shupei

    2009-08-01

    The technical support system for establishment of the Taihu-Lake Basin early warning system (TBEWS) was designed based on the characteristics of water environment. It involves recognition and the dynamic environmental risk assessment, early warning, risk management, and emergency decision etc. Getting data and information on time, sharing information within different regimes, establishing the multiple coupling models for calculation, and the uncertainty analysis methods are the hardness works for establishment of TBEWS. This research suggested an outline for the first time to develop and exam the multiple coupling models for establishment of TBEWS.

  5. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

    PubMed

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-07-10

    to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com

  6. Educator Evaluation and the Use of the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). Updated September 9, 2013

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education first released the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) data for grades 1-12 in the 2012-13 school year. The Department created the EWIS in direct response to educators' requests for early indicator data across multiple grade levels. The EWIS is a "tool to systematically…

  7. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

    PubMed Central

    Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  8. Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.

    PubMed

    Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S; Gore, Jeff

    2015-08-11

    Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.

  9. Toward a national early warning system for forest disturbances using remotely sensed canopy phenology

    Treesearch

    William W. Hargrove; Joseph P. Spruce; Gerald E. Gasser; Forrest M. Hoffman

    2009-01-01

    Imagine a national system with the ability to quickly identify forested areas under attack from insects or disease. Such an early warning system might minimize surprises such as the explosion of caterpillars referred to in the quotation above. Moderate resolution (ca. 500m) remote sensing repeated at frequent (ca. weekly) intervals could power such a monitoring system...

  10. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  11. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  12. Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

    Treesearch

    Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

    2016-01-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

  13. Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as “indicators for loss of resilience.” We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability–resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios. PMID:26216946

  14. An Analysis of the 1992 New Jersey Grade 8 Early Warning Test.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tambini, Robert F.

    The quality and the effectiveness of the 1992 New Jersey Grade 8 Early Warning Test (NJEWT) are assessed. Standardized tests possess clear advantages for educators, especially in the case of administration and scoring, but there are clear disadvantages as well, including the possibility of bias. Four criteria are applied to the NJEWT: adequacy,…

  15. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework.

    PubMed

    Depp, Colin; Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-09-07

    Recognition and timely action around "warning signs" of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations.

  16. [Early warning and risk assessment of snow disaster in pastoral area of northern Xinjiang].

    PubMed

    Liu, Xing-yuan; Liang, Tian-gang; Guo, Zheng-gang; Zhang, Xue-tong

    2008-01-01

    Based on the analysis of animal husbandry production and of distribution characteristics of snow disaster in northern Xinjiang, and by using RS and GIS techniques and field survey data, 9 early warning factors were selected from the three subsystems of grassland' s disaster-resistant capability, livestock's disaster-bearing capacity, and disaster-causing potential, and the death rate of livestock caused by snow disaster was used as a factor of risk assessment. An index system of snow disaster' s early warning and risk assessment for completely grazing grassland was established, and the early warning model of snow disaster, its distinguishing model, and risk assessment model were built by using multi-hierarchical synthetic and multi-objective linear weight function methods to predict the resistant capability of grassland and livestock against snow disaster, and to assess the potential risk loss from snow disaster in northern Xinjiang. The accuracy of the early warning model and risk assessment model was 85% and 72% , respectively.

  17. Destination Graduation: Sixth Grade Early Warning Indicators for Baltimore City Schools. Their Prevalence and Impact

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baltimore Education Research Consortium, 2011

    2011-01-01

    Even with the declining number of dropouts in Baltimore City, a focus on dropout prevention is essential. Recent research has emphasized the utility of an early warning system to inform prevention efforts. With this in mind, the Baltimore Education Research Consortium examined the 2000-01 cohort of sixth grade students (Class of 2007) from the…

  18. Of Needles and Haystacks: Building an Accurate Statewide Dropout Early Warning System in Wisconsin

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knowles, Jared E.

    2015-01-01

    The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…

  19. How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

  20. Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks

    PubMed Central

    Kuehn, Christian; Zschaler, Gerd; Gross, Thilo

    2015-01-01

    Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future. PMID:26294271

  1. Of Needles and Haystacks: Building an Accurate Statewide Dropout Early Warning System in Wisconsin

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knowles, Jared E.

    2015-01-01

    The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…

  2. Predicting High School Graduation and College Enrollment: Comparing Early Warning Indicator Data and Teacher Intuition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soland, James

    2013-01-01

    Each year, more districts implement early warning systems (EWS). These EWS predict negative student outcomes, such as dropping out, before they occur. Predictions are then used to match at-risk students to appropriate supports and interventions. Research suggests that these systems are useful in ensuring educators respond to student needs early,…

  3. Land use planning and early warning systems for limiting drought impacts and promoting recovery

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Land use planning and drought early warning systems both require an understanding of ecological potential and resilience, and how they vary across space and through time. A large body of literature and local knowledge has documented the importance of considering soil variability for land use plannin...

  4. Predicting High School Graduation and College Enrollment: Comparing Early Warning Indicator Data and Teacher Intuition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soland, James

    2013-01-01

    Each year, more districts implement early warning systems (EWS). These EWS predict negative student outcomes, such as dropping out, before they occur. Predictions are then used to match at-risk students to appropriate supports and interventions. Research suggests that these systems are useful in ensuring educators respond to student needs early,…

  5. Early warning signals of regime shifts from cross-scale connectivity of land-cover patterns

    Treesearch

    Giovanni Zurlini; Kenneth Bruce Jones; Kurt Hans Riitters; Bai-Lian Li; Irene Petrosillo

    2014-01-01

    Increasing external pressures from human activities and climate change can lead to desertification, affecting the livelihood of more than 25% of the world’s population. Thus, determining proximity to transition to desertification is particularly central for arid regions before they may convert into deserts, and recent research has focused on devising early warning...

  6. National High School Center Early Warning System Tool v2.0: Technical Manual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National High School Center, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0 is a Microsoft Excel-based tool developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research in collaboration with Matrix Knowledge Group. The tool enables schools, districts, and states to identify students who may be at risk of dropping out of high school and to monitor these…

  7. A Robust Scheme for the Global Earthquake Early Warning Based on Characteristic Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yu-Chang; Chiao, Ling-Yun; Wu, Cheng-Ju

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake hazards mitigation have always been an important issue. Prompt and rapid high precision magnitude estimation is essential to achieve the goal of effective early warning. However, the current state of the method including the maximum predominant period (τpmax), the vertical displacement of P-wave (Pd), and the τc × Pdmethod has reached a standstill for nearly a decade. The major shortcoming is that these methods are not quite applicable for large earthquakes (M>7). Therefore, a new magnitude estimation method for earthquake early warning is crucial and is needed for human preventing loss and casualties in the large earthquakes. Here we demonstrate a robust scheme based on the characteristic frequency. Our result shows a linear relation between the momentum magnitude and the characteristic frequency of P-wave which appears within the first few seconds. This method requires fewer calculations and doesn't need to apply any filter to obtain better results, so the data processing time needed for the real-time earthquake early warning system is greatly reduced. This method also indicates strong applicability for estimating earthquakes with magnitude larger than 7. We demonstrate a robust scheme of global earthquake early warning.

  8. Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

    2017-03-01

    This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

  9. Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

  10. Geospatiotemporal data mining in an early warning system for forest threats in the United States

    Treesearch

    F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...

  11. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  12. A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

    2015-01-01

    To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

  13. Dynamic Critical Rainfall-Based Flash Flood Early Warning and Forecasting for Medium-Small Rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Yang, D.; Hu, J.

    2012-04-01

    China is extremely frequent food disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainfall, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only serious threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social development and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals. In the next few years, China will focus on prevention and control area in the flash flood disasters initially built "for the surveillance, communications, forecasting, early warning and other non-engineering measure based, non-engineering measures and the combinations of engineering measures," the mitigation system. The latest progresses on global torrential flood early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed in this paper, and then an early warning and forecasting approach is proposed on the basis of a distributed hydrological model according to dynamic critical rainfall index. This approach has been applied in Suichuanjiang River basin in Jiangxi province, which is expected to provide valuable reference for building a national flash flood early warning and forecasting system as well as control of such flooding.

  14. Learning by Teaching: Undergraduate Engineering Students Improving a Community's Response Capability to an Early Warning System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community…

  15. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

    PubMed Central

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-01-01

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681

  16. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.

    PubMed

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-03-29

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

  17. Early Warning System for Disasters within Health Organizations: A Mandatory System for Developing Countries

    PubMed Central

    Zaboli, Rouhollah; Seyedin, SeyedHesam; Malmoon, Zainab

    2013-01-01

    Background: Disaster identification and alert systems can be processed in dif­ferent ways. An early warning system is designed to detect impending danger and send appropriate and clear signals to at risk communities and organizations at the right time and in an unambiguous way. This study aimed to determine early warning system for disaster within health organization in Iran. Methods:This article presents the findings of a mixed-methods study of early warning systems for disaster management within the health organizations in Iran. During the years 2011 to 2012, a sample of 230 health managers was surveyed using a questionnaire and 65 semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health and therapeutic affairs managers who were responsible for disaster management. Results: A range of problems were identified. Although there is a multi-agency alert system within the health organizations, other indicators of early warning system are not satisfactory. Furthermore, standard messages which are used to alert organizations are not used under the current system. Conclusion: Some activities such as memorandum of understanding among different stakeholders of disaster response and education of staff and communities could improve the response to disasters within the health organizations. PMID:24688976

  18. Learning by Teaching: Undergraduate Engineering Students Improving a Community's Response Capability to an Early Warning System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community…

  19. Impact of implementation of the National Early Warning Score on patients and staff.

    PubMed

    Farenden, Scott; Gamble, David; Welch, John

    2017-03-02

    The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) has been criticized for increasing workload and decreasing attention to signs of deterioration. This study highlighted the significant mortality of ward patients referred to critical care, and showed that the NEWS identified high-risk patients without increasing workload or worsening outcomes.

  20. Control charts as an early-warning system for workplace health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Larsson, J; Landstad, B J; Wiklund, H; Vinberg, S

    2011-01-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) charts have not been widely used to monitor workplace health and work environments. This research and effort to develop a more accurate and easy to use management control system for employee health is important from a humanistic, societal and economic standpoint, as well as complying with laws that regulate work environments. The purpose of the study is to design and discuss control charts as an early warning system for workplace health outcomes to promote workplace health management. Another purpose is to discuss relevant factors in the concept of the out-of-control action plan (OCAP) as a response when a chart warns that the workplace process may be malfunctioning. Two Swedish organizations were selected as case study organizations: a department at a university and an elderly care operation in a municipality. This study was explorative and should be seen as a starting point in learning how to use control charts for workplace health management. Self-assessed general health and new sick-cases per employee were selected as indicators for the control charts. An integrated early warning system with Cumulative Sums- and Shewhart-charts are presented to show a possible method as to how an early warning system can be structured through the use of statistical control charts. The conclusion of this study is that control charts, along with well-designed implementation, make up a powerful and useable managerial early-warning system which promotes workplace health and helps to prevent sickness absence.

  1. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  2. Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

  3. Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuehn, Christian; Zschaler, Gerd; Gross, Thilo

    2015-08-01

    Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future.

  4. A proposed Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) with emphasis on early detection of sepsis in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Ian

    2016-03-01

    There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.

  5. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  6. Validation of modified early warning score using serum lactate level in community-acquired pneumonia patients. The National Early Warning Score-Lactate score.

    PubMed

    Jo, Sion; Jeong, Taeoh; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Yoon, Jaechol; Park, Boyoung

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic prediction power of a newly introduced early warning score modified by serum lactate level, the National Early Warning Score-Lactate (NEWS-L) score, among community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients. We also compared the NEWS-L score with the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65. We designed a retrospective observational study and collected data on confirmed adult CAP patients who visited the study hospital between October 2013 and September 2014. Variables relevant to, the NEWS-L score, PSI, and CURB-65 were extracted from electronic medical records. Survival status at hospital discharge was determined in the same manner. The NEWS-L score was calculated as NEWS-L=NEWS+serum lactate level (mmol/L). The NEWS-L was divided into quartiles. The ability to predict mortality was assessed through area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and calibration analysis. A total of 553 patients were enrolled, and the inpatient mortality rate was 10.8% (n=60). Mortality rates increased incrementally in conjunction with the NEWS-L quartiles: first quartile, 2.2%; second quartile, 7.9%; third quartile, 9.6%; and fourth quartile, 23.9%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the NEWS-L score was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.80), which showed no significant difference from that of the PSI (0.68; 95% CI, 0.61-0.76; P=.28) and CURB-65 (0.66; 95% CI, 0.59-0.73; P=.06). The newly introduced early warning score modified by serum lactate level, NEWS-L score, was comparable to PSI and CURB-65, for predicting inpatient mortality among adult CAP patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

    2014-12-01

    Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state

  8. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  9. Measuring the modified early warning score and the Rothman index: advantages of utilizing the electronic medical record in an early warning system.

    PubMed

    Finlay, G Duncan; Rothman, Michael J; Smith, Robert A

    2014-02-01

    Early detection of an impending cardiac or pulmonary arrest is an important focus for hospitals trying to improve quality of care. Unfortunately, all current early warning systems suffer from high false-alarm rates. Most systems are based on the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS); 4 of its 5 inputs are vital signs. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of MEWS against the Rothman Index (RI), a patient acuity score based upon summation of excess risk functions that utilize additional data from the electronic medical record (EMR). MEWS and RI scores were computed retrospectively for 32,472 patient visits. Nursing assessments, a category of EMR inputs only used by the RI, showed sharp differences 24 hours before death. Receiver operating characteristic curves for 24-hour mortality demonstrated superior RI performance with c-statistics, 0.82 and 0.93, respectively. At the point where MEWS triggers an alarm, we identified the RI point corresponding to equal sensitivity and found the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) for MEWS was 7.8, and for the RI was 16.9 with false alarms reduced by 53%. At the RI point corresponding to equal LR+, the sensitivity for MEWS was 49% and 77% for RI, capturing 54% more of those patients who will die within 24 hours. Published 2013. The Authors Journal of Hospital Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Hospital Medicine.

  10. Measuring the modified early warning score and the Rothman Index: Advantages of utilizing the electronic medical record in an early warning system

    PubMed Central

    Finlay, G Duncan; Rothman, Michael J; Smith, Robert A

    2014-01-01

    Early detection of an impending cardiac or pulmonary arrest is an important focus for hospitals trying to improve quality of care. Unfortunately, all current early warning systems suffer from high false-alarm rates. Most systems are based on the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS); 4 of its 5 inputs are vital signs. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of MEWS against the Rothman Index (RI), a patient acuity score based upon summation of excess risk functions that utilize additional data from the electronic medical record (EMR). MEWS and RI scores were computed retrospectively for 32,472 patient visits. Nursing assessments, a category of EMR inputs only used by the RI, showed sharp differences 24 hours before death. Receiver operating characteristic curves for 24-hour mortality demonstrated superior RI performance with c-statistics, 0.82 and 0.93, respectively. At the point where MEWS triggers an alarm, we identified the RI point corresponding to equal sensitivity and found the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) for MEWS was 7.8, and for the RI was 16.9 with false alarms reduced by 53%. At the RI point corresponding to equal LR+, the sensitivity for MEWS was 49% and 77% for RI, capturing 54% more of those patients who will die within 24 hours. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2014;9:116–119. 2013 The Authors. Journal of Hospital Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Hospital Medicine PMID:24357519

  11. Integration of Single-Center Data-Driven Vital Sign Parameters into a Modified Pediatric Early Warning System.

    PubMed

    Ross, Catherine E; Harrysson, Iliana J; Goel, Veena V; Strandberg, Erika J; Kan, Peiyi; Franzon, Deborah E; Pageler, Natalie M

    2017-05-01

    Pediatric early warning systems using expert-derived vital sign parameters demonstrate limited sensitivity and specificity in identifying deterioration. We hypothesized that modified tools using data-driven vital sign parameters would improve the performance of a validated tool. Retrospective case control. Quaternary-care children's hospital. Hospitalized, noncritically ill patients less than 18 years old. Cases were defined as patients who experienced an emergent transfer to an ICU or out-of-ICU cardiac arrest. Controls were patients who never required intensive care. Cases and controls were split into training and testing groups. The Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System was modified by integrating data-driven heart rate and respiratory rate parameters (modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System 1 and 2). Modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System 1 used the 10th and 90th percentiles as normal parameters, whereas modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System 2 used fifth and 95th percentiles. The training set consisted of 358 case events and 1,830 controls; the testing set had 331 case events and 1,215 controls. In the sensitivity analysis, 207 of the 331 testing set cases (62.5%) were predicted by the original tool versus 206 (62.2%; p = 0.54) with modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System 1 and 191 (57.7%; p < 0.001) with modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System 2. For specificity, 1,005 of the 1,215 testing set control patients (82.7%) were identified by original Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System versus 1,013 (83.1%; p = 0.54) with modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System 1 and 1,055 (86.8%; p < 0.001) with modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System 2. There was no net gain in sensitivity and specificity using either of the modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System tools. Integration of data-driven vital sign parameters into a validated pediatric early warning system did not significantly impact sensitivity or

  12. Early Warning Scoring System for Early Recognition of and Timely Intervention in Deteriorating Patients in the Hospital.

    PubMed

    Ravikirti

    2016-05-01

    Delay in recognizing clinical deterioration in acutely unwell patients often leads to cardiac arrests and unexpected admissions to the Intensive Care Unit. Early Warning Scoring Systems based on vital physiological parameters help in early detection of clinical deterioration. When combined with a system of prompt and appropriate clinical response, they have been shown to improve outcome. A standardised National Early Warning Score has been implemented in the United Kingdom. There is a need to implement an early warning scoring system in hospitals in India in order to ensure effective and judicious utilization of our overburdened acute services and to minimize adverse outcomes. © Journal of the Association of Physicians of India 2011.

  13. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  14. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

    PubMed Central

    Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

  15. Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

    2017-07-01

    Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

    PubMed

    Basher, Reid

    2006-08-15

    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

  17. Early Warning/Track-and-Trigger Systems to Detect Deterioration and Improve Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

    PubMed

    Shiloh, Ariel L; Lominadze, George; Gong, Michelle N; Savel, Richard H

    2016-02-01

    As a global effort toward improving patient safety, a specific area of focus has been the early recognition and rapid intervention in deteriorating ward patients. This focus on "failure to rescue" has led to the construction of early warning/track-and-trigger systems. In this review article, we present a description of the data behind the creation and implementation of such systems, including multiple algorithms and strategies for deployment. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems and their evaluation in the literature are emphasized. Despite the limitations of the current literature, the potential benefit of these early warning/track-and-trigger systems to improve patient outcomes remains significant. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  18. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  19. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2008-01-01

    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  20. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  1. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

    2014-12-08

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

  2. Recent Advances in Optical Biosensors for Environmental Monitoring and Early Warning

    PubMed Central

    Long, Feng; Zhu, Anna; Shi, Hanchang

    2013-01-01

    The growing number of pollutants requires the development of innovative analytical devices that are precise, sensitive, specific, rapid, and easy-to-use to meet the increasing demand for legislative actions on environmental pollution control and early warning. Optical biosensors, as a powerful alternative to conventional analytical techniques, enable the highly sensitive, real-time, and high-frequency monitoring of pollutants without extensive sample preparation. This article reviews important advances in functional biorecognition materials (e.g., enzymes, aptamers, DNAzymes, antibodies and whole cells) that facilitate the increasing application of optical biosensors. This work further examines the significant improvements in optical biosensor instrumentation and their environmental applications. Innovative developments of optical biosensors for environmental pollution control and early warning are also discussed. PMID:24132229

  3. Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1985-01-01

    Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.

  4. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  5. AgRISTARS: Soil moisture/early warning and crop condition assessment. Interface control document

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    The interactions and support functions required between the early warning/crop condition assessment (EW/CCA) project and soil moisture (SM) project are defined. The EW Project aims to develop, test and evaluate techniques and procedures for adapting remote sensing technology to provide early warning of events and the timely assessment of those factors which affect the quality and quantity of production of economically important crops. Those techniques to augment and reinforce the current assessment activities are to be developed to improve the definition of the relationship between the plant(s) and its environment. This assessment and evaluation will certainly include the need for soil moisture measurement and estimation. The SM Project aims to develop, test, and evaluate techniques and procedures to measure or predict soil moisture in the root zone using both contact and remote sensors.

  6. Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1985-01-01

    Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.

  7. The use of passive environmental TLDs in the operation of the Spanish early warning network 'REVIRA'.

    PubMed

    Sáez-Vergara, J C; Romero, A M; Vila Pena, M; Rodriguez, R; Muñiz, J L

    2002-01-01

    As required by different international agreements, the regulatory body in Spain (Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) implemented in 1992 a national automatic network (REVIRA) that continuously monitors radiation levels in order to give early warning of incidents having potential transboundary implications. The detector for environmental gamma-radiation dose rate is an active instrument based on a Geiger-Müller counter. However, the use of passive environmental dosemeters provides an additional low-cost dose estimate with an independent centralised calibration and even better basic features than active instruments. Since 1999, all 25 REVIRA stations have been monitored with passive TL environmental dosemeters based on LiF:Mg,Cu,P and operated according to the procedures established at Ciemat. This paper presents the obtained results and the further analysis considering differences in aspects such as photon energy response, inherent background or response to cosmic rays. The benefits of the use of passive environmental dosemeters in early warning networks are discussed.

  8. An integrated methodology to develop a standard for landslide early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faisal Fathani, Teuku; Karnawati, Dwikorita; Wilopo, Wahyu

    2016-09-01

    Landslides are one of the most widespread and commonly occurring natural hazards. In regions of high vulnerability, these complex hazards can cause significant negative social and economic impacts. Considering the worldwide susceptibility to landslides, it is necessary to establish a standard for early warning systems specific to landslide disaster risk reduction. This standard would provide guidance in conducting landslide detection, prediction, interpretation, and response. This paper proposes a new standard consisting of seven sub-systems for landslide early warning. These include risk assessment and mapping, dissemination and communication, establishment of the disaster preparedness and response team, development of an evacuation map, standardized operating procedures, installation of monitoring and warning services, and the building of local commitment to the operation and maintenance of the entire program. This paper details the global standard with an example of its application from Central Java, one of 20 landslide-prone provinces in Indonesia that have used this standard since 2012.

  9. Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

    2008-05-01

    Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

  10. Early warning scores: a sign of deterioration in patients and systems.

    PubMed

    Fox, Adrian; Elliott, Naomi

    2015-04-01

    The early warning score system is a decision-making tool that has a simple design, yet its implementation in healthcare organisations is proving complex. This article reports the results of a survey that evaluated nurses' experiences of using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in an acute hospital in Ireland. Staff reported that the NEWS was easy to use, did not increase workload and enhanced their ability to identify deteriorating patients. However, they also identified problems related to doctors' delayed response times, doctors' lack of training in the use of the tool, and a failure by doctors to modify trigger parameters for patients with chronic conditions. NEWS enhances nurses' roles in early detection of patient deterioration, but delays in response times by doctors expose systematic flaws in health care. This suggests that it is not only an indicator of patient deterioration, but also of deteriorating healthcare systems.

  11. Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

    2011-12-01

    With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.

  12. A Residual Chlorine Removal Method to Allow Drinking Water Monitoring by Biological Early Warning Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-03-18

    Spearman - Karber method (Hamilton et as described below. al., 1977). Dilution water was a mixture Reagent-grade sodium hypochlorite of 60% well water...Inc., Ann Hamilton MA, Russo RC, Thurston RV. Arbor, MI. 1977. Trimmed Spearman - Karber National Research Council. 1996. Guide method for estimating...Technical Report 0501 AAD A RESIDUAL CHLORINE REMOVAL METHOD TO ALLOW DRINKING WATER MONITORING BY BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS US Army Center

  13. TOWARD EARLY-WARNING DETECTION OF GRAVITATIONAL WAVES FROM COMPACT BINARY COALESCENCE

    SciTech Connect

    Cannon, Kipp; Cariou, Romain; Chapman, Adrian; Fotopoulos, Nickolas; Privitera, Stephen; Searle, Antony; Singer, Leo; Weinstein, Alan; Crispin-Ortuzar, Mireia; Frei, Melissa; Hanna, Chad; Kara, Erin; Keppel, Drew; Liao, Laura

    2012-04-01

    Rapid detection of compact binary coalescence (CBC) with a network of advanced gravitational-wave detectors will offer a unique opportunity for multi-messenger astronomy. Prompt detection alerts for the astronomical community might make it possible to observe the onset of electromagnetic emission from CBC. We demonstrate a computationally practical filtering strategy that could produce early-warning triggers before gravitational radiation from the final merger has arrived at the detectors.

  14. The East African food crisis: did regional early warning systems function?

    PubMed

    Ververs, Mija-Tesse

    2012-01-01

    This opinion paper evaluates the early warning regional systems in East Africa in 2010 and 2011 and their abilities to predict and warn about the current food insecurity crisis. It provides information on which systems worked and which did not. It explains the potential reasons why and provides future recommendations. Finally, it notes that many organizations/systems assess only individual countries and thus are not able to see the larger regional picture and, therefore, the wider implications of the crisis and response.

  15. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  16. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2016-01-01

    A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  17. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

    2014-05-01

    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  18. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  19. The analysis of behavior in orbit GSS two series of US early-warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukhov, P. P.; Epishev, V. P.; Sukhov, K. P.; Motrunych, I. I.

    2016-09-01

    Satellites Early Warning System Series class SBIRS US Air Force must replace on GEO early series DSP Series. During 2014-2016 the authors received more than 30 light curves "DSP-18 and "Sbirs-Geo 2". The analysis of the behavior of these satellites in orbit by a coordinate and photometric data. It is shown that for the monitoring of the Earth's surface is enough to place GEO 4 unit SBIRS across 90 deg.

  20. A paediatric early warning scoring system for a remote rural area.

    PubMed

    Henderson, Sarah

    2012-07-01

    Health professionals can fail to identify and treat serious illness or acute deterioration in children because of a lack of relevant training, experience or supervision. In Argyll and Bute in Scotland a standardised, monitoring system was initiated measuring six physiological parameters: temperature, pulse rate, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation and consciousness level. The total score dictates what actions to take. This local system was positively evaluated but a national paediatric early warning scoring system is needed.

  1. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2015-10-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  2. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  3. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  4. A single-centre observational cohort study of admission National Early Warning Score (NEWS).

    PubMed

    Abbott, Tom E F; Vaid, Nidhi; Ip, Dorothy; Cron, Nicholas; Wells, Matt; Torrance, Hew D T; Emmanuel, Julian

    2015-07-01

    Early warning scores are commonly used in hospitals to identify patients at risk of deterioration. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) has recently been introduced to UK practice. However, it is not yet widely implemented. We aimed to compare NEWS to the early warning score currently used in our hospital--the Patient at Risk Score (PARS). We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of all adult general medical patients admitted to a single hospital over a 20-day period. Physiological data and early warning scores recorded in bedside charts were collected on admission and a NEWS score was retrospectively calculated. The patient notes were reviewed at 48 h after admission. The primary outcome was a composite of critical care admission or death within 2 days of admission. The secondary outcome was hospital length of stay. NEWS was more strongly associated with the primary outcome than PARS (odds ratio 1.54, p < 0.001 compared to 1.42, p = 0.056). A NEWS of 3 or more was associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio 7.03, p = 0.003). Neither score was correlated with hospital length of stay. NEWS on admission is superior to PARS for identifying patients at risk of death or critical care admission within the first 2 days of hospital stay. Current guidelines advocate a threshold of 5 for triggering a clinical review. However, since a score of 3 or more was associated with a poor outcome, this recommendation should be reviewed. Both scores were poor predictors of hospital length of stay. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Pediatric early warning score at time of emergency department disposition is associated with level of care.

    PubMed

    Breslin, Kristen; Marx, Julie; Hoffman, Heather; McBeth, Ryan; Pavuluri, Padmaja

    2014-02-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the association between the Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) at time of emergency department (ED) disposition and level of care. We conducted a prospective observational study with a convenience sample of patients aged 0 to 21 years in the ED of an urban, tertiary care children's hospital between November 2010 and July 2011. Pediatric Early Warning Score data were obtained at time of ED disposition, and the disposition decision was collected from the electronic medical record. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the association between PEWS and disposition. The sample of 383 patients included 239 (62%) who were discharged, 126 (33%) admitted to acute care, and 18 (5%) admitted to intensive care. Assigned scores ranged from 0 to 9. Adjusting for triage level, a 1-point increase in PEWS increased the odds of acute care admission 48% relative to the odds of discharge (odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.76) and increased the odds of intensive care admission 41% relative to the odds of acute care admission (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.76). Pediatric Early Warning Score of 1 or more had maximum discriminant ability for admission, and PEWS of 3 or greater had maximum discriminant ability for intensive care. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.68 to detect need for admission for the entire sample and 0.80 among the 97 patients with respiratory complaints. Pediatric Early Warning Score is associated with the level of care at ED disposition but does not provide adequate sensitivity and specificity to be used in isolation. Performance characteristics are better for patients with respiratory complaints.

  6. Application of satellite products and hydrological modelling for flood early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koriche, Sifan A.; Rientjes, Tom H. M.

    2016-06-01

    Floods have caused devastating impacts to the environment and society in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Since flooding events are frequent, this marks the need to develop tools for flood early warning. In this study, we propose a satellite based flood index to identify the runoff source areas that largely contribute to extreme runoff production and floods in the basin. Satellite based products used for development of the flood index are CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique: 0.25° by 0.25°, daily) product for calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for calculation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Other satellite products used in this study are for rainfall-runoff modelling to represent rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover and topography. Results of the study show that assessment of spatial and temporal rainfall variability by satellite products may well serve in flood early warning. Preliminary findings on effectiveness of the flood index developed in this study indicate that the index is well suited for flood early warning. The index combines SPI and TWI, and preliminary results illustrate the spatial distribution of likely runoff source areas that cause floods in flood prone areas.

  7. Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

    PubMed Central

    Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat

    2016-01-01

    Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968

  8. Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

    PubMed

    Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

    2013-11-30

    Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.

    PubMed

    Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan

    2016-01-01

    Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.

  10. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  11. Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

  12. Near Real-Time Determination of Earthquake Source Parameters for Tsunami Early Warning from Geodetic Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manneela, Sunanda; Srinivasa Kumar, T.; Nayak, Shailesh R.

    2016-06-01

    Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS) allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS), starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  13. A satellite infrastructure for health early warning in post-disaster health management.

    PubMed

    Chronaki, C E; Berthier, A; Lleo, M M; Esterle, L; Lenglet, A; Simon, F; Josseran, L; Lafaye, M; Matsakis, Y; Tabasco, A; Braak, L

    2007-01-01

    The risk of epidemics and emerging or re-emerging diseases such as avian flu, tuberculosis, malaria and other vector-borne diseases, is rising. These risks can be contained with prevention, early warning, and prompt management. Despite progress in information technology, communication is still a bottleneck for health early warning and response systems in post-disaster situations. This paper presents Satellites for Epidemiology (SAFE), a component-based interoperable architecture for health early warning that employs satellite, radio, and wireless networks, geographic information systems, integration technology, and data mining to promptly identify and respond to a disease outbreak. In a post-disaster situation, a mobile health emergency coordination center is established and integrated to public health services for health monitoring. The added-value of SAFE for post-disaster health management will be demonstrated as part of an earthquake readiness exercise regarding a typhoid fever epidemic, in the island of Crete. Advanced communication and data mining techniques in SAFE offer new tools to the "Epidemic Intelligence" and contribute to advanced preparedness and prompt response by lifting communication barriers, promoting collaboration, and reducing the isolation of affected areas.

  14. CISN ShakeAlert: Using early warnings for earthquakes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellweg, M.; Vinci, M.; CISN-EEW Project Team

    2011-12-01

    As part of a USGS-funded project, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is now implementing and testing a prototype, end-to-end system for earthquake early warning, the ShakeAlert system. Having an alert of shaking just before it starts can improve resilience if the recipient of the alert has developed plans for responding to it and acts on them. We are working with a suite of perspective users from critical industries and institutions throughout California, such as the Bay Area Rapid Transit District, to identify information necessary for ShakeAlert users, as well as delivery mechanisms, procedures and products. At the same time, we will support their efforts to determine and implement appropriate responses to alerts of expected earthquake shaking, and to assess possible uses and especially benefits to themselves and to society. Thus, a detailed introduction to the CISN ShakeAlert system is an integral part of our interaction with the users, as are regular opportunities for feedback and support. In a final workshop, users will be surveyed for evaluations of perspective uses for early warning in their organizations as well as expected improvements in their response to earthquakes due to the early warning and their expected savings in terms of lives, damage and resilience.

  15. Risk-based modeling of early warning systems for pollution accidents.

    PubMed

    Grayman, W M; Males, R M

    2002-01-01

    An early warning system is a mechanism for detecting, characterizing and providing notification of a source water contamination event (spill event) in order to mitigate the impact of contamination. Spill events are highly probabilistic occurrences with major spills, which can have very significant impacts on raw water sources of drinking water, being relatively rare. A systematic method for designing and operating early warning systems that considers the highly variable, probabilistic nature of many aspects of the system is described. The methodology accounts for the probability of spills, behavior of monitoring equipment, variable hydrology, and the probability of obtaining information about spills independent of a monitoring system. Spill Risk, a risk-based model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques has been developed and its utility has been demonstrated as part of an AWWA Research Foundation sponsored project. The model has been applied to several hypothetical river situations and to an actual section of the Ohio River. Additionally, the model has been systematically applied to a wide range of conditions in order to develop general guidance on design of early warning systems.

  16. An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators

    SciTech Connect

    Tantet, Alexis Burgt, Fiona R. van der; Dijkstra, Henk A.

    2015-03-15

    The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5–10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motions are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

  17. Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

    PubMed Central

    Lenton, T. M.; Livina, V. N.; Dakos, V.; Van Nes, E. H.; Scheffer, M.

    2012-01-01

    We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings. PMID:22291229

  18. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Guttal, Vishwesha; Ives, Anthony R.; Kéfi, Sonia; Livina, Valerie; Seekell, David A.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2012-01-01

    Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ‘early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. PMID:22815897

  19. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  20. Methods of Multivariable Earthquake Precursor Analysis and a Proposed Prototype Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rojas, J. I.; Fletcher, L. E.

    2007-12-01

    Significant advances are being made in earthquake prediction theory; however, a reliable method for forecasting the occurrence of earthquakes from space and/or ground based technologies remains limited to no more than a few minutes before the event happens. Several claims of earthquake precursors have been put forward, such as ionospheric changes, electromagnetic effects, and ground heating, though the science behind these is far from complete and the successful application of these precursors is highly regionally variable. Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors are insufficient for resolving the precursor issue. Their performance does not satisfy the requirements of an earthquake early warning system in terms of spatial and temporal coverage (Pulinets and Boyarchuk, 2004). To achieve statistically significant validation of precursors for early warning delivery, precursor data must be obtained from simultaneous repeated monitoring of several precursors in focus regions over a long period of time and then integrated and processed. Data sources include historical data, data from ground-based units, airborne systems, and space-based systems. This paper describes methods of systematic evaluation of regionally specific, multivariable precursor data needed for the identification of the expected time, magnitude and the position of the epicentre. This data set forms the basis for a proposed operational early warning system developed at the International Space University and which is built in partnership with local and national governments as well as international organizations.

  1. Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness.

    PubMed

    Lenton, T M; Livina, V N; Dakos, V; van Nes, E H; Scheffer, M

    2012-03-13

    We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings.

  2. Validation of the Cardiac Children's Hospital Early Warning Score: an early warning scoring tool to prevent cardiopulmonary arrests in children with heart disease.

    PubMed

    McLellan, Mary C; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Connor, Jean A

    2014-01-01

    Most inpatient pediatric arrests are preventable by early recognition/treatment of deterioration. Children with cardiac disease have the highest arrest rates; however, early warning scoring systems have not been validated in this population. The objective of this study was to validate the Cardiac Children's Hospital Early Warning Score (C-CHEWS) tool in inpatient pediatric cardiac patients. The associated escalation of care algorithm directs: routine care (score 0-2), increased assessment/intervention (3-4), or cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) consult/transfer (≥5). Sensitivity and specificity were estimated based on retrospective review of patients that experienced unplanned CICU transfer/arrest (n = 64) and a comparison sample (n = 248) of admissions. The previously validated Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) tool was used for comparison. Patients' highest C-CHEWS scores were compared with calculated PEWS scores. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated for PEWS and C-CHEWS to measure discrimination. The AUROC curve for C-CHEWS was 0.917 compared with PEWS 0.785 (P < .001). The algorithm AUROC curve was 0.902 vs. PEWS of 0.782. C-CHEWS algorithm sensitivity was 96.9 (score ≥ 2), 79.7 (≥4), and 67.2 (≥5) vs. PEWS of 81.1(≥2), 37.5 (≥4), and 23.4 (≥5). C-CHEWS specificity was 58.1 (≥2), 85.5 (≥4), and 93.6 (≥5) vs. PEWS of 81.1 (≥2), 94.8 (≥4) and 97.6 (≥5). Lead time of elevated C-CHEWS scores (≥2) was a median of 9.25 hours prior to event vs. PEWS, which was 2.25 hours and lead time for critical C-CHEWS scores (≥5) was 2 hours vs. 0 hours for PEWS (P < .001). C-CHEWS has excellent discrimination to identify deterioration in children with cardiac disease and performed significantly better than PEWS both as an ordinal variable and when choosing cut points to maximize AUROC. C-CHEWS has a higher sensitivity than PEWS at all cut points. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. A Framework for Monitoring and Maintenance of a Tsunami Early Warning System using ITIL®

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gensch, Stephan; Günther, Michael; Henneberger, Ralph; Strollo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Within this work, we present our approach and ongoing efforts to establish monitoring and maintenance processes for Tsunami Early Warning Systems. Practical work is done within the context of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning System (INATEWS) at Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) in Jakarta, Indonesia. The German contribution is well known as GITEWS. INATEWS is composed of several thousand integrated system components and numerous software processes. Due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the system, as well as the high availability needs, being an operational TEWS, real-time monitoring, reporting and scheduled preventive maintenance are needed. To develop and install an organizational and operational methodology for maintenance processes for INATEWS, we asserted ITIL® methods and are in development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) together with BMKG operational and management staff. ITIL®-conforming methods are one means of IT Service Management which has been adopted by a variety of service oriented IT providers. An early warning system does not expose classical consumer services, but the dissemination of warning messages and an early warning as a product may nevertheless be viewed as distinct services provided by a TEWS. We applied methods from ITIL® to the modular and hierarchical components of an early warning center, where minimum requirements on service availability, reliability and correctness of the warning product exist, from dissemination down to each sensor component. We describe functions of actors that ensure management of incidents and problems, as well as managing applications, IT operations and further technical issues. For the components of the early warning system, we present a model of event detection and event resolution. Real-time monitoring provides automated health-checks. Errors lead to reports to designated targets. Preventive maintenance provides findings on data and system availability, and data quality. Each

  4. Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system.

    PubMed

    Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S

    2015-09-04

    The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of

  5. Development of empirical relationship between P wave initial slopes and epicentral distance for early warning in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, S.; Sheen, D. H.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake early warning aims to rapidly provide the information of an earthquake to minimize earthquake damage. The location accuracy of an earthquake is crucial for the accurate estimation of the source property. While standard location procedure can take the advantages of using combined P-wave and S-wave information, early warning information should be given before arriving S-wave. Odaka et al. (2003) found that P-wave initial slopes decrease almost linearly with increasing epicentral distance and proposed a method for estimating epicentral distance from P-wave initial slope. The early warning system in the Japan Meteorological Agency uses this method for locating an earthquake when only one station triggers. For developing the empirical relationship for earthquake early warning in South Korea, we investigate the relationship from 585 local earthquakes with magnitude larger than 2.0 and 147 regional earthquakes over magnitude 6.0 that occurred in and around the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2015.

  6. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  7. Can binary early warning scores perform as well as standard early warning scores for discriminating a patient's risk of cardiac arrest, death or unanticipated intensive care unit admission?

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-08-01

    Although the weightings to be summed in an early warning score (EWS) calculation are small, calculation and other errors occur frequently, potentially impacting on hospital efficiency and patient care. Use of a simpler EWS has the potential to reduce errors. We truncated 36 published 'standard' EWSs so that, for each component, only two scores were possible: 0 when the standard EWS scored 0 and 1 when the standard EWS scored greater than 0. Using 1564,153 vital signs observation sets from 68,576 patient care episodes, we compared the discrimination (measured using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve--AUROC) of each standard EWS and its truncated 'binary' equivalent. The binary EWSs had lower AUROCs than the standard EWSs in most cases, although for some the difference was not significant. One system, the binary form of the National Early Warning System (NEWS), had significantly better discrimination than all standard EWSs, except for NEWS. Overall, Binary NEWS at a trigger value of 3 would detect as many adverse outcomes as are detected by NEWS using a trigger of 5, but would require a 15% higher triggering rate. The performance of Binary NEWS is only exceeded by that of standard NEWS. It may be that Binary NEWS, as a simplified system, can be used with fewer errors. However, its introduction could lead to significant increases in workload for ward and rapid response team staff. The balance between fewer errors and a potentially greater workload needs further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yan; Xu, Zhen-Jun

    2013-01-01

    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established. PMID:24191134

  9. Safety early warning research for highway construction based on case-based reasoning and variable fuzzy sets.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun

    2013-01-01

    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

  10. The prognostic value of the Modified Early Warning Score in critically ill patients: a prospective, observational study.

    PubMed

    Reini, Kirsi; Fredrikson, Mats; Oscarsson, Anna

    2012-03-01

    The Modified Early Warning Score is a validated assessment tool for detecting risk of deterioration in patients at risk on medical and surgical wards. To assess the prognostic ability of the Modified Early Warning Score in predicting outcome after critical care. A prospective observational study. A tertiary care general ICU. Five hundred and eighteen patients aged at least 16 years admitted to the ICU at Linköping University Hospital were included. The Modified Early Warning Score was documented on arrival at the ICU and every hour for as long as the patient was breathing spontaneously, until discharge from the ICU. The primary endpoint was mortality in the ICU. Secondary endpoints were 30-day mortality, length of stay and readmission to the ICU. Patients with a Modified Early Warning Score of at least six had significantly higher mortality in the ICU than those with a Modified Early Warning Score <6 (24 vs. 3.4%, P < 0.001). A Modified Early Warning Score of at least six was an independent predictor of mortality in the ICU [odds ratio (OR) 5.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4-20.6]. The prognostic ability of the Modified Early Warning Score on admission to the ICU [area under the curve (AUC) 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.88] approached those of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score III (AUC 0.89, 95% CI 0.83-0.94) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score on admission (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.97). A Modified Early Warning Score of at least six on admission was also an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.3-8.1) and length of stay in the ICU (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.8). In contrast, the Modified Early Warning Score on discharge from the ICU did not predict the need for readmission. This study shows that the Modified Early Warning Score is a useful predictor of mortality in the ICU, 30-day mortality and length of stay in the ICU.

  11. Strong Motion Networks - Rapid Response and Early Warning Applications in Istanbul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulfikar, C.; Alcik, H.; Ozel, O.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    In recent years several strong motion networks have been established in Istanbul with a preparation purpose for future probable earthquake. This study addresses the introduction of current seismic networks and presentation of some recent results recorded in these networks. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System has ten strong motion stations which were installed as close as possible to Marmara Sea main fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The current algorithm compares the band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) with specified threshold levels. Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System has one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers which were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake. Early response information is achieved through fast acquisition and analysis of processed data obtained from the network. The stations are routinely interrogated on regular basis by the main data center. After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming strong motion data to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods and sends these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through a designated GSM network and through a microwave system. A shake map and damage distribution map (using aggregate building inventories and fragility curves

  12. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  13. A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the

  14. Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

    2015-04-01

    When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

  15. Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

  16. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network: An early warning system for tropical rain forests.

    PubMed

    Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time

  17. On the roburtness of GNSS-based tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, K.; Song, Y. T.; Liu, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Abstract: Recent devastating tsunamis (e.g., the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku events) have repeatedly reminded us of the imperfection of existing tsunami early warning systems (TEWS) in such a harsh way and motivated researchers to make them more trustworthy. Realizing the fact that these tragedies were partly caused by the underestimation of earthquake magnitudes in the first few minutes after earthquakes because of the saturation of traditional seismic sensors, Global Navigation Satellites Systems (GNSS), which can measure co-seismic displacements directly, have found increasing applications in TEWS. Generally, there exist two major approaches that project GNSS displacements into tsunami scenario predictions. The conventional one adopts GNSS displacements for seismic source inversion (see, e.g., Ohta et al., 2012; Melgar and Yehuda 2013) while the other one interpolates seafloor deformation based on coastal GNSS station displacements (see, e.g., Song 2007; Xu and Song 2013; Liu et al., 2014). Despite both methods are being embedded into operational systems, no systematic comparisons between these two have been carried out to assess their robustness towards GNSS-based TEWS. To evaluate the reliability of the two methods in TEWS, we employed both approaches and applied them to three selected historical tsunamis caused by 2010 Mw7.8 Mentawai earthquake, the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku earthquake and the 2015 Mw8.2 Illapel earthquake. The three earthquakes represent typical tsunamigenic scenarios seen in practice: rare tsunami earthquake (2010 Mentawai case) without dense GNSS network, mega-thrust earthquake (2011 Tohoku case) with very dense GNSS network and medium-size earthquake with relatively dense GNSS network (2015 Illapel case). Through detailed analysis and comparison with tsunami observations, we address the pros and cons of the two methods and potential ways to combine them in GNSS-based tsunami early warning system. Key words: GNSS, tsunami early warning, seismic

  18. A Local and Regional Tsunami Early Warning System for New Zealand: A feasibility study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christof; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; D'Anastasio, Elisabetta; Wang, Xiaoming; Wang, Rongjiang; Zhang, Yong; Ristau, John; Benites, Rafael; Salichon, Jerome; Fournier, Nico; Fry, Bill; Holden, Caroline; Power, William; Gledhill, Ken

    2015-04-01

    Local tsunami mitigation in New Zealand is based on self evacuation following long-duration or intense ground motions. Slow-rupturing 'tsunami earthquakes', as have occurred historically on the Hikurangi margin (1880 and twice in 1947), might not be felt strongly enough to trigger self evacuation. Slip kinematics and distribution influence tsunami propagation and inundation patterns significantly. To establish an effective early warning system for such events, rapid inversion is needed to resolve these earthquake source parameters. We will give an update on recent results from on-going efforts at GNS Science in collaboration with international partners to assess the feasibility of implementing a local tsunami early warning system targeting 'Tsunami Earthquakes' in New Zealand. We performed simulations of kinematic and static surface displacements for a scenario event similar to the March 1947 tsunami earthquake. The created data sets are used to assess the detection capabilities of and potential required updates to the New Zealand seismic and geodetic sensor network (GeoNet). A suite of detection, classification and inversion algorithms has been tested with the simulated data. Our findings indicate that an event similar to the 1947 Gisborne Tsunami Earthquake could be classified as potentially tsunamigenic from seismic data alone. It also should be detectable and classifiable by the geodetic network in real time. However, a combination of kinematic and static deformation (seismic and geodetic) data is required to drive a full rapid detection, classification and inversion algorithm chain. For an operational early warning system to be implemented a large portion of the geodetic sensor network needs to be upgraded to stream data in real time to GeoNet.

  19. Calibrating and Implementing the Virtual Seismologist Approach for Earthquake Early Warning in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cua, G. B.; Fischer, M.; Clinton, J. F.; Wiemer, S.; Heaton, T. H.; Giardini, D.

    2007-12-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method for earthquake early warning is a Bayesian approach to estimating earthquake source parameters (magnitude, location) and predicting the spatial distribution of peak ground motion in real-time. Among the critical components of the VS method are a suite of relationships describing the magnitude, distance, and site-dependence of P- and S-wave amplitudes in various frequency bands and sensor orientations, as well as relationships between the ground motion ratios (between acceleration and displacement) and magnitude. The VS method was originally developed using a southern California database, and hence, its ground motion models are primarily valid for southern California. However, recent attenuation studies by Stafford et al (2007) have suggested that the differences between ground motion attenuation characteristics in areas characterized by shallow, crustal seismicity are small, and that the ground motion models Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project are valid in Europe. This would suggest that the southern California ground motion models for the VS method (which are essentially attenuation relationships) would be valid in Switzerland, a region of dispersed seismicity and moderate seismic activity. To test this hypothesis, we derive a new set of VS ground motion models, using records from M&>&2.5 events recorded on the Swiss Digital Seismic Network (SDSN) and the Swiss Strong Motion Network (SSMN), and compare these with the southern California relationships. Implementation efforts of the Virtual Seismologist method in real-time currently under way in California, as part of the CISN Early Warning implementation project, and in Europe, as part of the EU-funded SAFER (Seismic eArly warning For Europe) project. We describe the current status of these implementations, and illustrate the method's performance and limitations on Swiss and California waveforms.

  20. New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faillettaz, J.

    2016-12-01

    Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

  1. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  2. A Randomized Trial of Palliative Care Discussions Linked to an Automated Early Warning System Alert.

    PubMed

    Picker, David; Dans, Maria; Heard, Kevin; Bailey, Thomas; Chen, Yixin; Lu, Chenyang; Kollef, Marin H

    2017-02-01

    To determine whether an Early Warning System could identify patients wishing to focus on palliative care measures. Prospective, randomized, pilot study. Barnes-Jewish Hospital, Saint Louis, MO (January 15, 2015, to December 12, 2015). A total of 206 patients; 89 intervention (43.2%) and 117 controls (56.8%). Palliative care in high-risk patients targeted by an Early Warning System. Advanced directive documentation was significantly greater prior to discharge in the intervention group (37.1% vs 15.4%; p < 0.001) as were first-time requests for advanced directive documentation (14.6% vs 0.0%; p < 0.001). Documentation of resuscitation status was also greater prior to discharge in the intervention group (36.0% vs 23.1%; p = 0.043). There was no difference in the number of patients requesting a change in resuscitation status between groups (11.2% vs 9.4%; p = 0.666). However, changes in resuscitation status occurred earlier and on the general medicine units for the intervention group compared to the control group. The number of patients transferred to an ICU was significantly lower for intervention patients (12.4% vs 27.4%; p = 0.009). The median (interquartile range) ICU length of stay was significantly less for the intervention group (0 [0-0] vs 0 [0-1] d; p = 0.014). Hospital mortality was similar (12.4% vs 10.3%; p = 0.635). This study suggests that automated Early Warning System alerts can identify patients potentially benefitting from directed palliative care discussions and reduce the number of ICU transfers.

  3. Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A realist evaluation.

    PubMed

    McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh

    2017-06-21

    To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Self-contained local broadband seismogeodetic early warning system: Detection and location

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, D. E.; Bock, Y.

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake and local tsunami early warning is critical to mitigating adverse impacts of large-magnitude earthquakes. An optimal system must rely on near-source data to maximize warning time. To this end, we have developed a self-contained seismogeodetic early warning system employing an optimal combination of high-frequency information from strong-motion accelerometers and low-frequency information from collocated Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) instruments to estimate real-time displacements and velocities. Like GNSS, and unlike broadband seismometers, seismogeodetic stations record the full waveform, including static offset, without clipping in the near-field or saturating for large magnitude earthquakes. However, GNSS alone cannot provide a self-contained system and requires an external seismic trigger. Seismogeodetic stations detect P wave arrivals with the same sensitivity as strong-motion accelerometers and thus provide a stand-alone system. We demonstrate the utility of near-source seismogeodesy for event detection and location with analysis of the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja, California and 2014 Mw6.0 Napa, California strike-slip events, and the 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique, Chile subduction zone earthquake using observatory-grade accelerometers and GPS data. We present lessons from the 2014 Mw4.0 Piedmont, California and 2016 Mw5.2 Borrego Springs, California earthquakes, recorded by our seismogeodetic system with Micro-Electro Mechanical System (MEMS) accelerometers and GPS data and reanalyzed retrospectively. We conclude that our self-contained seismogeodetic system is suitable for early warning for earthquakes of significance (>M5) using either observatory-grade or MEMS accelerometers. Finally, we discuss the effect of network design on hypocenter location and suggest the deployment of additional seismogeodetic stations for the western U.S.

  5. Performance of the Obstetric Early Warning Score in critically ill patients for the prediction of maternal death.

    PubMed

    Paternina-Caicedo, Angel; Miranda, Jezid; Bourjeily, Ghada; Levinson, Andrew; Dueñas, Carmelo; Bello-Muñoz, Camilo; Rojas-Suarez, José A

    2017-01-01

    Every day, about 830 women die worldwide from preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirth. Obstetric early warning scores have been proposed as a potential tool to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality, based on the identification of predetermined abnormal values in the vital signs or laboratory parameters, to generate a rapid and effective medical response. Several early warning scores have been developed for obstetrical patients, but the majority are the result of a clinical consensus rather than statistical analyses of clinical outcome measures (ie, maternal deaths). In 2013, the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center Case Mix Program reported the first statistically validated early warning scoring system for pregnant women. We sought to assess the performance of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center Obstetric Early Warning Score in predicting death among pregnant women who required admission to the intensive care unit. This retrospective cohort study included pregnant women admitted to the intensive care unit at a tertiary referral center from January 2006 through December 2011 in Colombia, a developing country, with direct and indirect obstetric-related conditions. The Obstetric Early Warning Score was calculated based on data collected during the first 24 hours of intensive care unit admission. The Obstetric Early Warning Score is calculated based on values of the following variables: systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, heart rate, fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) required to maintain an oxygen saturation ≥96%, temperature, and level of consciousness. The performance of the Obstetric Early Warning Score was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Outcomes selected were: maternal death, need for mechanical ventilation, and/or vasoactive support. Statistical methods included distribution appropriate univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression

  6. A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Hao; Hou, Wei; Yan, Peng-Cheng; Zhang, Zhi-Sen; Wang, Kuo

    2015-08-01

    In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature (SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change (1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST, along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos

  7. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  8. Implementing early-warning indicators of HIV drug resistance in the Caribbean.

    PubMed

    Jack, Noreen; Ravasi, Giovanni; Schrooten, Ward; Sutherland, Donald; Ghidinelli, Massimo; Del Riego, Amalia

    2012-05-01

    A key component of the World Health Organization's (WHO's) Global HIV Drug Resistance (HIVDR) prevention and assessment strategy is to monitor HIVDR early-warning indicators (EWIs), which provide strategic information for HIVDR containment. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)/WHO supported implementation of HIVDR EWI monitoring in 16 Caribbean countries. Results from 15 countries were analyzed by year of patient initiation of antiretroviral therapy for the period 2005-2009. This report demonstrates the need for capacity-building to standardize prescribing practices and to strengthen adherence strategies and antiretroviral drug procurement management systems.

  9. Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.

    2013-12-01

    PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the

  10. Application of collocated GPS and seismic sensors to earthquake monitoring and early warning.

    PubMed

    Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Guo, Bofeng

    2013-10-24

    We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation.

  11. A new multi-sensor approach to simulation assisted tsunami early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrens, J.; Androsov, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Harig, S.; Klaschka, F.; Mentrup, L.

    2010-06-01

    A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

  12. Implementation of the pediatric early warning scoring system on a pediatric hematology/oncology unit.

    PubMed

    Demmel, Kathleen M; Williams, Lucinda; Flesch, Laura

    2010-01-01

    Despite improved outcomes for pediatric Hematology/Oncology patients over the past 15-20 years, sepsis and other acute events continue to cause serious illness in these children. Implementing a pediatric early warning scoring tool (PEWS) with an associated multi-disciplinary action algorithm in a pediatric Hematology/Oncology unit helped to remove barriers that prevented timely referral of children who are clinically deteriorating and requiring immediate help, enhanced multi-disciplinary team communication, and has led to a more than 3-fold increase in days between codes on the Hematology/Oncology unit.

  13. Development of SIGNAL: An early warning system of city gas network

    SciTech Connect

    Yoshikawa, Yoichi; Kano, Hiroyuki; Yamazaki, Fumio; Katayama, Tsuneo; Akasaka, Nozomu

    1995-12-31

    An earthquake monitoring and early warning system for a large-scale city gas network has been developed in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. The monitoring system consists of 356 earthquake sensors. Once an earthquake occurs, values monitored by these sensors will be sent to the supply control center by radio. Then estimation of damage to customers` buildings and pipelines, estimation of the magnitude and hypocenter, evaluation of the response spectrum, and decision analysis whether to shut-off or maintain the supply will be conducted. The system will play an important role in mitigating gas-related secondary disasters due to earthquakes.

  14. Application of Collocated GPS and Seismic Sensors to Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Guo, Bofeng

    2013-01-01

    We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation. PMID:24284765

  15. Mapping Historic Gypsy Moth Defoliation with MODIS Satellite Data: Implications for Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spurce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William; Ryan, Robert E.; Smooth, James C.; Prados, Don; McKellip, Rodney; Sader, Steven A.; Gasser, Jerry; May, George

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews a project, the goal of which is to study the potential of MODIS data for monitoring historic gypsy moth defoliation. A NASA/USDA Forest Service (USFS) partnership was formed to perform the study. NASA is helping USFS to implement satellite data products into its emerging Forest Threat Early Warning System. The latter system is being developed by the USFS Eastern and Western Forest Threat Assessment Centers. The USFS Forest Threat Centers want to use MODIS time series data for regional monitoring of forest damage (e.g., defoliation) preferably in near real time. The study's methodology is described, and the results of the study are shown.

  16. Do either early warning systems or emergency response teams improve hospital patient survival? A systematic review.

    PubMed

    McNeill, G; Bryden, D

    2013-12-01

    For critical care to be effective it must have a system in place to achieve optimal care for the deteriorating ward patient. To systematically review the available literature to assess whether either early warning systems or emergency response teams improve hospital survival. In the event of there being a lack of evidence regarding hospital survival, secondary outcome measures were considered (unplanned ICU admissions, ICU mortality, length of ICU stay, length of hospital stay, cardiac arrest rates). The Ovid Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane library and NHS databases were searched in September 2012 along with non-catalogued resources for papers examining the effect of early warning systems or emergency response teams on hospital survival. Inclusion criteria were original clinical trials and comparative studies in adult inpatients that assessed either an early warning system or emergency response team against any of the predefined outcome measures. Exclusion criteria were previous systematic reviews, non-English abstracts and studies incorporating paediatric data. Studies were arranged in to sections focusing on the following interventions: Early warning systems - Single parameter systems - Aggregate weighted scoring systems (AWSS) Emergency response teams - Medical emergency teams - Multidisciplinary outreach services . In each section an appraisal of the level of evidence and a recommendation has been made using the SIGN grading system. 43 studies meeting the review criteria were identified and included for analysis. 2 studies assessed single parameter scoring systems and 4 addressed aggregate weighted scoring systems. A total of 20 studies examined medical emergency teams and 22 studies examined multidisciplinary outreach teams. The exclusion of non English studies and those including paediatric patients does limit the applicability of this review. Much of the available evidence is of poor quality. It is clear that a 'whole system' approach

  17. Space geodetic tools provide early warnings for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aoki, Yosuke

    2017-04-01

    Development of space geodetic techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite System and Synthetic Aperture Radar in last few decades allows us to monitor deformation of Earth's surface in unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. These observations, combined with fast data transmission and quick data processing, enable us to quickly detect and locate earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and assess potential hazards such as strong earthquake shaking, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These techniques thus are key parts of early warning systems, help identify some hazards before a cataclysmic event, and improve the response to the consequent damage.

  18. Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

    PubMed

    Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and

  19. Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Semenza, Jan C.

    2015-01-01

    Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats. PMID:26042370

  20. False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

    2015-12-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  1. Conceptual Framework to Enable Early Warning of Relevant Phenomena (Emerging Phenomena and Big Data)

    SciTech Connect

    Schlicher, Bob G; Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M

    2013-01-01

    Graphs are commonly used to represent natural and man-made dynamic systems such as food webs, economic and social networks, gene regulation, and the internet. We describe a conceptual framework to enable early warning of relevant phenomena that is based on an artificial time-based, evolving network graph that can give rise to one or more recognizable structures. We propose to quantify the dynamics using the method of delays through Takens Theorem to produce another graph we call the Phase Graph. The Phase Graph enables us to quantify changes of the system that form a topology in phase space. Our proposed method is unique because it is based on dynamic system analysis that incorporates Takens Theorem, Graph Theory, and Franzosi-Pettini (F-P) theorem about topology and phase transitions. The F-P Theorem states that the necessary condition for phase transition is a change in the topology. By detecting a change in the topology that we represent as a set of M-order Phase Graphs, we conclude a corresponding change in the phase of the system. The onset of this phase change enables early warning of emerging relevant phenomena.

  2. The infrared-based early warning system for bird strike prevention at Frankfurt airport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Münzberg, M.; Schilling, A.; Schlemmer, H.; Vogel, H.; Cramer, H.; Schlosshauer, J.

    2011-06-01

    Flocks of migratory birds are very often using geographic structures like rivers, valleys or coast lines for orientation. Wherever the preferred migration routes are crossing the approach corridor of an airport there is an increased risk of bird strike. Flocks of birds crossing the runway corridor of the new runway Northwest of the Frankfurt airport are kept under surveillance now with in total three watch towers located at the river Main which in this case is the preferred used line of orientation. Each of the watch towers carries an early warning system which consists of two pairs of stereoscopic thermal imaging cameras sensitive in the mid wavelength infrared range (3 - 5 μm). A stereoscopic pair measures the swarm size, direction of flight and velocity in real time and with high accuracy. From these results an early warning is derived under all relevant weather conditions. The fixed focus thermal imaging cameras are thermally compensated and designed for ultra low image distortion. Each stereoscopic pair is aligned in the sub-pixel range and is controlled by a reference beam to ensure that the alignment is preserved under all environmental conditions and over a very long time. The technical concept is discussed and the design of the realized warning system at the Frankfurt airport is presented.

  3. Early warning system for financially distressed hospitals via data mining application.

    PubMed

    Koyuncugil, Ali Serhan; Ozgulbas, Nermin

    2012-08-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) for hospitals by using data mining. A data mining method, Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm, was used in the study for financial profiling and developing FEWS. The study was conducted in Turkish Ministry of Health's public hospitals which were in financial distress and in need of urgent solutions for financial issues. 839 hospitals were covered and financial data of the year 2008 was obtained from Ministry of Health. As a result of the study, it was determined that 28 hospitals (3.34%) had good financial performance, and 811 hospitals (96.66%) had poor financial performance. According to FEWS, the covered hospitals were categorized into 11 different financial risk profiles, and it was found that 6 variables affected financial risk of hospitals. According to the profiles of hospitals in financial distress, one early warning signal was detected and financial road map was developed for risk mitigation.

  4. Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems.

    PubMed

    Racloz, Vanessa; Ramsey, Rebecca; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2012-01-01

    Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

  5. A Topology Visualization Early Warning Distribution Algorithm for Large-Scale Network Security Incidents

    PubMed Central

    He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

    2013-01-01

    It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology. PMID:24191145

  6. Development of a consortium for water security and safety: Planning for an early warning system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, R.M.; Adam, N.R.; Atluri, V.; Halem, M.; Vowinkel, E.F.; ,

    2004-01-01

    The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns over the safety and security of the Nation's critical infrastructure including water and waste water systems. In June 2002, the U.S. EPA's Region II Office (New York City), in response to concerns over water security, in collaboration with Rutgers University agreed to establish a Regional Drinking Water Security and Safety Consortium (RDWSSC). Members of the consortium include: Rutgers University's Center for Information Management, Integration and Connectivity (CIMIC), American Water (AW), the Passaic Valley Water Commission (PVWC), the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies, Region II Office. In December of 2002 the consortium members signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to pursue activities to enhance regional water security. Development of an early warning system for source and distributed water was identified as being of primary importance by the consortium. In this context, an early warning system (EWS) is an integrated system of monitoring stations located at strategic points in a water utilities source waters or in its distribution system, designed to warn against contaminants that might threaten the health and welfare of drinking water consumers. This paper will discuss the consortium's progress in achieving these important objectives.

  7. Early warning disease surveillance after a flood emergency--Pakistan, 2010.

    PubMed

    2012-12-14

    During July-August 2010, Pakistan experienced extreme flooding that affected approximately 18 million persons. In response to the emergency, Pakistan's Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO) enhanced an existing disease early warning system (DEWS) for outbreak detection and response. This report summarizes surveillance results early after implementation, describes system usefulness, and identifies areas for strengthening. Daily disease counts were reported from health facilities in four provinces containing 98% of the flood-affected population. During July 29, 2010-September 15, 2010, approximately 5.6 million new patient visits were reported. The most frequent conditions reported were skin diseases (18.3%), acute respiratory infection (15.1%), and acute diarrhea (13.3%). A total of 130 outbreak alerts were documented, of which 115 (88.5%) were for acute watery diarrhea (AWD) (suspected cholera). Of these, 55 alerts (47.8%) had at least one microbiological sample with confirmed cholera. Overall, DEWS was useful in detecting outbreaks, but it was limited by problems with data quality. Improvements in DEWS have increased system usefulness in subsequent emergencies. This report highlights the need to follow updated WHO guidelines on early warning disease surveillance systems to improve their usefulness.

  8. Evaluation of Golestan Province's Early Warning System for flash floods, Iran, 2006-7.

    PubMed

    Ardalan, Ali; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh; Kabir, Mohamad-Javad; Zanganeh, Ali-Mohamad; Keshtkar, Abbas-Ali; Honarvar, Mohamad-Reza; Khodaie, Hanieh; Osooli, Mehdi

    2009-05-01

    Golestan province located in NE Iran is well known for deadly flash floods. This study aimed to evaluate the region's Early Warning System (EWS) for flash floods. We used an adapted version of the questionnaire developed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. We reviewed documents on the EWS of Golestan, and conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with experts and affected people in Kalaleh and Minoodasht. Results were discussed by an expert panel. Regarding risk knowledge, there was a hazard map at Provincial Disaster Taskforce (PDT) drawn by the provincial Office for Water Resource Management, but no risk analysis was available. Local people were aware of their exposure to flooding, but not aware of the existence of a hazard map and their vulnerability situation. In terms of monitoring and warning, PDT faced serious limitations in issuing Early Warnings, including (1) an inability to make point predictions of rainfall, and (2) the absence of a warning threshold. Dissemination and communication issued by the Meteorological Office followed a top-to-bottom direction. The contents were neither clearly understood by other institutions nor reached the potential recipients within an appropriate time frame. There was a need for a comprehensive response plan with adequate exercises, and no evaluation framework existed. Golestan EWS is in dire need of improvement. To fill in the gaps ensuring local people receive timely warning, we propose a community-based model called "Village Disaster Taskforce" (VDT) in which individual villages act as operational units, but interlinked with other villages and PDT.

  9. Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

    2015-12-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  10. False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  11. Surveillance of Dengue Fever Virus: A Review of Epidemiological Models and Early Warning Systems

    PubMed Central

    Racloz, Vanessa; Ramsey, Rebecca; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2012-01-01

    Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale. PMID:22629476

  12. Experimental observation of critical slowing down as an early warning of population collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vorselen, Daan; Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill; Gore, Jeff

    2012-02-01

    Near tipping points marking population collapse or other critical transitions in complex systems small changes in conditions can result in drastic shifts in the system state. In theoretical models it is known that early warning signals can be used to predict the approach of these tipping points (bifurcations), but little is known about how these signals can be detected in practice. Here we use the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to study these early warning signals in controlled experimental populations. We grow yeast in the sugar sucrose, where cooperative feeding dynamics causes a fold bifurcation; falling below a critical population size results in sudden collapse. We demonstrate the experimental observation of an increase in both the size and timescale of the fluctuations of population density near this fold bifurcation. Furthermore, we test the utility of theoretically predicted warning signals by observing them in two different slowly deteriorating environments. These findings suggest that these generic indicators of critical slowing down can be useful in predicting catastrophic changes in population biology.

  13. Design of early warning system for nuclear preparedness case study at Serpong

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.

    2017-07-01

    One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.

  14. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  15. Detection of Pathogenic Viruses in Sewage Provided Early Warnings of Hepatitis A Virus and Norovirus Outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Hellmér, Maria; Paxéus, Nicklas; Magnius, Lars; Enache, Lucica; Arnholm, Birgitta; Johansson, Annette; Bergström, Tomas

    2014-01-01

    Most persons infected with enterically transmitted viruses shed large amounts of virus in feces for days or weeks, both before and after onset of symptoms. Therefore, viruses causing gastroenteritis may be detected in wastewater, even if only a few persons are infected. In this study, the presence of eight pathogenic viruses (norovirus, astrovirus, rotavirus, adenovirus, Aichi virus, parechovirus, hepatitis A virus [HAV], and hepatitis E virus) was investigated in sewage to explore whether their identification could be used as an early warning of outbreaks. Samples of the untreated sewage were collected in proportion to flow at Ryaverket, Gothenburg, Sweden. Daily samples collected during every second week between January and May 2013 were pooled and analyzed for detection of viruses by concentration through adsorption to milk proteins and PCR. The largest amount of noroviruses was detected in sewage 2 to 3 weeks before most patients were diagnosed with this infection in Gothenburg. The other viruses were detected at lower levels. HAV was detected between weeks 5 and 13, and partial sequencing of the structural VP1protein identified three different strains. Two strains were involved in an ongoing outbreak in Scandinavia and were also identified in samples from patients with acute hepatitis A in Gothenburg during spring of 2013. The third strain was unique and was not detected in any patient sample. The method used may thus be a tool to detect incipient outbreaks of these viruses and provide early warning before the causative pathogens have been recognized in health care. PMID:25172863

  16. G-FAST Early Warning Potential for Great Earthquakes in Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowell, B.; Schmidt, D. A.; Baker, B. I.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The importance of GNSS-based earthquake early warning for modeling large earthquakes has been studied extensively over the past decade and several such systems are currently under development. In the Pacific Northwest, we have developed the G-FAST GNSS-based earthquake early warning module for eventual inclusion in the US West-Coast wide ShakeAlert system. We have also created a test system that allows us to replay past and synthetic earthquakes to identify problems with both the network architecture and the algorithms. Between 2010 and 2016, there have been seven M > 8 earthquakes across the globe, of which three struck offshore Chile; the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, and the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. Subsequent to these events, the Chilean national GNSS network operated by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (http://www.sismologia.cl/) greatly expanded to over 150 continuous GNSS stations, providing the best recordings of great earthquakes with GNSS outside of Japan. Here we report on retrospective G-FAST performance for those three great earthquakes in Chile. We discuss the interplay of location errors, latency, and data completeness with respect to the precision and timing of G-FAST earthquake source alerts as well as the computational demands of the system.

  17. A P wave-based, on-site method for earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colombelli, S.; Caruso, A.; Zollo, A.; Festa, G.; Kanamori, H.

    2015-03-01

    A new strategy for a P wave-based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested on Japanese strong motion data. The key elements are the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters and their empirical combination to predict the ensuing peak ground velocity. The observed parameters are compared to threshold values and converted into a single, dimensionless variable. A local alert level is issued as soon as the empirical combination exceeds a given threshold. The performance of the method has been evaluated by applying the approach to the catalog of Japanese earthquake records and counting the relative percentage of successful, missed, and false alarms. We show that the joint use of three peak amplitude parameters improves the performance of the system as compared to the use of a single parameter, with a relative increase of successful alarms of about 35%. The proposed methodology provides a more reliable prediction of the expected ground shaking and improves the robustness of a single-station, threshold-based earthquake early warning system.

  18. Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L.; Forsberg, Bertil

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans. PMID:22408593

  19. A climate service prototype: enchancing Ethiopia's drought early warning tools with input from seasonal forecasting systems.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Law, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a selected number of experimental operational prototypes of climate impact prediction systems in different sectors. One of the proposed prototypes aims at enhancing an existing drought early warning system owned by the Government of Ethiopia's Directorate for Risk Management and Food Security. This early warning system is based on a software platform called LEAP, which uses precipitation and monitoring data to estimate the number of people to be in need of food assistance due to drought. By providing early and objective estimates of the expected magnitude of needs, LEAP helps increase both the speed and transparency with which a humanitarian response can be triggered. Currently, the LEAP uses monitoring data to calculate future needs. The aim of the prototype is to integrate seasonal precipitation forecasts into the calculations, which will enable the model to provide earlier projections of beneficiary numbers, thereby enhancing the entire decision making process. As the implementation of the protype is still in progress we will discuss the workflow of the prototype and the current understanding and modelling approach for the connection between the climate driver (drought) and the corresponding impact (food insecurity). We will also present the expected value of the prototype given the expected level of skill of the underlying seasonal forecasting system and a preliminary cost/benefit scenario for an operational impact prediction system that is able to anticipate the occurence of the most severe drought events.

  20. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

    2011-12-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  1. Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest.

    PubMed

    Spielmann, Katherine A; Peeples, Matthew A; Glowacki, Donna M; Dugmore, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Recent research in ecology suggests that generic indicators, referred to as early warning signals (EWS), may occur before significant transformations, both critical and non-critical, in complex systems. Up to this point, research on EWS has largely focused on simple models and controlled experiments in ecology and climate science. When humans are considered in these arenas they are invariably seen as external sources of disturbance or management. In this article we explore ways to include societal components of socio-ecological systems directly in EWS analysis. Given the growing archaeological literature on 'collapses,' or transformations, in social systems, we investigate whether any early warning signals are apparent in the archaeological records of the build-up to two contemporaneous cases of social transformation in the prehistoric US Southwest, Mesa Verde and Zuni. The social transformations in these two cases differ in scope and severity, thus allowing us to explore the contexts under which warning signals may (or may not) emerge. In both cases our results show increasing variance in settlement size before the transformation, but increasing variance in social institutions only before the critical transformation in Mesa Verde. In the Zuni case, social institutions appear to have managed the process of significant social change. We conclude that variance is of broad relevance in anticipating social change, and the capacity of social institutions to mitigate transformation is critical to consider in EWS research on socio-ecological systems.

  2. Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

    2017-04-01

    In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

  3. Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Early Warning: The Challenges of Introducing Scientific Innovations for Public Safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Although variants of both earthquake early warning and short-term operational earthquake forecasting systems have been implemented or are now being implemented in some regions and nations, they have been slow to gain acceptance within the disciplines that produced them as well as among those for whom they were intended to assist. To accelerate the development and implementation of these technologies will require the cooperation and collaboration of multiple disciplines, some inside and others outside of academia. Seismologists, social scientists, emergency managers, elected officials and key opinion leaders from the media and public must be the participants in this process. Representatives of these groups come from both inside and outside of academia and represent very different organizational cultures, backgrounds and expectations for these systems, sometimes leading to serious disagreements and impediments to further development and implementation. This presentation will focus on examples of the emergence of earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting systems in California, Japan and other regions and document the challenges confronted in the ongoing effort to improve seismic safety.

  4. MAFALDA: An early warning modeling tool to forecast volcanic ash dispersal and deposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2008-12-01

    Forecasting the dispersal of ash from explosive volcanoes is a scientific challenge to modern volcanology. It also represents a fundamental step in mitigating the potential impact of volcanic ash on urban areas and transport routes near explosive volcanoes. To this end we developed a Web-based early warning modeling tool named MAFALDA (Modeling and Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere) able to quantitatively forecast ash concentrations in the air and on the ground. The main features of MAFALDA are the usage of (1) a dispersal model, named VOL-CALPUFF, that couples the column ascent phase with the ash cloud transport and (2) high-resolution weather forecasting data, the capability to run and merge multiple scenarios, and the Web-based structure of the procedure that makes it suitable as an early warning tool. MAFALDA produces plots for a detailed analysis of ash cloud dynamics and ground deposition, as well as synthetic 2-D maps of areas potentially affected by dangerous concentrations of ash. A first application of MAFALDA to the long-lasting weak plumes produced at Mt. Etna (Italy) is presented. A similar tool can be useful to civil protection authorities and volcanic observatories in reducing the impact of the eruptive events. MAFALDA can be accessed at http://mafalda.pi.ingv.it.

  5. The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method: a Bayesian approach to seismic early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cua, G. B.; Heaton, T. H.

    2004-12-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to seismic early warning applicable to regions with distributed seismic hazard. It is modeled on ``back of the envelope'' methods of human seismologists for examining waveform data, in particular, in the use of the shapes of the ground motion envelopes and the relative frequency content of the observed ground motions to distinguish between small and large events. What differentiates the VS method from other proposed paradigms for seismic early warning is its capacity to assimilate different types of information that may be useful in arriving at quick and reliable estimates of magnitude and location. In addition to the observed ground motion amplitudes, the VS method uses prior information such as previously observed seismicity, the state of health of the seismic network, and station-specific amplification factors. These types of information are useful in resolving the trade-offs between magnitude and location when such trade-offs cannot be resolved by the limited available observations at the start of the earthquake rupture. We apply the VS method to various earthquake scenarios.

  6. Research on early warning technology for spacecraft in-orbit fault influenced by space environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhenyan, Zhao; Ping, Yang; Wendong, Li; Xi, Chen; Peng, Liu; Zhihui, Wang; Zhen, Wu

    2016-07-01

    The number of China's current satellite on orbit is nearly 150. Satellites are often influenced by space environment, and the on-orbit operation tasks are interrupted. Analysis of relevant data and looking for the right warning method become one of the important means, which can ensure the safety of satellite in orbit. Firstly, the data of satellite on-orbit from 2008 to 2015 and space environment are studied. Through the methods of correlation analysis and ratio analysis, we select the sensitive parameters which are more affected by the environment change. Through the analysis of the satellite fault which often happens, we get the location distribution, time distribution of the fault and the characteristic data such as environmental changes. Using the comprehensive factor calculation method, according to environment data and sensitive parameters, data information such as failure characteristics, we calculate the early warning value, which can provide the basis for the spacecraft operation management when the space environment changes. At the same time, we put forward the possible suggestion for space-based early warning information application, and the further suggestion of using sensitive parameter study on space environment change.

  7. Developing the Framework for an Early Warning System for Ebola based on Environmental Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dartevelle, Sebastien; Nguy-Robertson, Anthony; Bell, Jesse; Chretien, Jean-Paul

    2017-04-01

    The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa indicated that this lethal disease can become a National Security issue as it crossed boarders and taxed regional health care systems. Ebola symptoms are also similar to other endemic diseases. Thus, forewarning of its possible presence can alert local public health facilities and populations, and may thereby reduce response time. Early work by our group has identified local climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and vegetation health (e.g. remote sensing using normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) variables as leading indicators to known historical Ebola outbreaks. The environmental stress placed on the system as it reaches a climatic tipping point provides optimal conditions for spillover of Ebola virus from the reservoir host (which is unknown but suspected to be bats) to humans. This work outlines a framework for an approach to provide early warning maps based on the present state of the environment. Time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors are the basis for the early warning models used. These maps can provide policy makers and local health care professionals timely information for disease surveillance and preparation for future Ebola outbreaks.

  8. Quantifying the effect of early warning systems for mitigating risks from alpine hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Daniel; Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly applied as flexible and non-intrusive measures for mitigating risks from alpine hazards. They are typically planed and installed in an ad-hoc manner and their effectiveness is not quantified, which is in contrast to structural risk mitigation measures. The effect of an EWS on the risk depends on human decision makers: experts interpret the signals from EWS, authorities decide on intervention measures and the public responds to the warnings. This interaction of the EWS with humans makes the quantification of their effectiveness challenging. Nevertheless, such a quantification is an important step in understanding, improving and justifying the use of EWS. We systematically discuss and demonstrate the factors that influence EWS effectiveness for alpine hazards, and present approaches and tools for analysing them. These include Bayesian network models, which are a powerful tool for an integral probabilistic assessment. The theory is illustrated through applications of warning systems for debris flow and rockfall hazards. References: Sättele M., Bründl M., Straub D. (in print). Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Sättele M., Bründl M., Straub D. (2015). Reliability and Effectiveness of Warning Systems for Natural Hazards: Concepts and Application to Debris Flow Warning. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 142: 192-202

  9. The Global Drought Monitor Portal - The Foundation for a Global Drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R.; Pozzi, W.; Vogt, J.; Sheffield, J.

    2011-12-01

    Drought monitoring, assessment, response, mitigation, adaptation, and early warning systems have been created in a number of countries around the world, and some regional and continental efforts have been successful. However, the creation of a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) remains elusive. A GDEWS incorporates forecasting and research improvements, in addition to monitoring, impact, planning, mitigation and adaptation and recovery information. At a series of workshops in 2010, the US National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) agreed to take the first step toward a GDEWS, the formation of a Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). This effort currently covers three continents - North America, Europe, and Africa - and provides global drought indicator information through satellite products and Global Historical Climate Network locations. The GDMP has benefited from coordination with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). Other nations have expressed interest in contributing and new regional and continental information should be online shortly. This paper presents the capabilities of the GDMP to link the monitoring, forecasting, research, and impacts aspects of international drought as well as the advantages of using common architecture through GEO to facilitate transfer and interoperability of GDEWS-related information.

  10. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  11. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  12. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  13. Use of a Modified Pediatric Early Warning Score in a Department of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine

    PubMed Central

    Solevåg, Anne L.; Eggen, Elisabeth H.; Schröder, Judith; Nakstad, Britt

    2013-01-01

    Background Several versions of the Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) exist, but there is limited information available on the use of such systems in different contexts. In the present study, we aimed to examine the relationship between a modified version of The Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) and patient characteristics in a Norwegian department of pediatric and adolescent medicine. In addition, we sought to establish guidelines for escalation in patient care based on the PEWS in our patient population. Methods The medical records of patients referred for acute care from March to May 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Children with a PEWS ≥3 were compared to children with a PEWS 0–2 with regard to age, diagnostic group and indicators of severe disease. Results A total of 761 patients (0−18 years of age) were included in the analysis. A younger age and diagnostic groups such as lower airway and cardiovascular disease were associated with PEWS ≥3. Upper airway disease and minor injury were more frequent in patients with PEWS 0−2. Children with PEWS ≥3 received fluid resuscitation, intravenous antibiotics, and oxygen supplementation, and were transferred to a higher level of care more often than children with PEWS 0−2. Conclusions A PEWS ≥3 was associated with severe illnesses and surrogate markers of cardio-respiratory compromise. Patients with PEWS ≥3 should be carefully monitored to prevent further deterioration. PMID:23991121

  14. Serious adverse events in a hospital using early warning score - what went wrong?

    PubMed

    Petersen, John Asger; Mackel, Rebecca; Antonsen, Kristian; Rasmussen, Lars S

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate the performance of a new early warning score (EWS) system by reviewing all serious adverse events in our hospital over a 6-month time period. All incidents of unexpected death (UD), cardiac arrest (CA) and unanticipated intensive care unit admission(UICU) of adult patients on general wards were reviewed to see if the escalation protocol that is part of the EWS system was followed in the 24h preceding the event, and if not where in the chain of events failure occurred. We found 77 UICU and 67 cases of the combined outcome (CO) of CA and UD. At least two full sets of EWS were recorded in 87, 94 and 75% of UICU, CA and UD. Patients were monitored according to the escalation protocol in 13, 31 and 13% of UICU, CA and UD. Nurses escalated care and contacted physicians in 64% and 60% of events of UICU and the corresponding proportions for CO were 58% and 55%. On call physicians provided adequate care in 49% of cases of UICU and 29% of cases of the CO. Senior staff was involved according to protocol in 53% and 36% of cases of UICU and CO, respectively. Poor compliance with the escalation protocol was commonly found when serious adverse events occurred but level of care provided by physicians was also a problem in a hospital with implemented early warning system. This information may prove useful in improving performance of EWS systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Prospective cohort study to test the predictability of the Cardiff and Vale paediatric early warning system.

    PubMed

    Edwards, E D; Powell, C V E; Mason, B W; Oliver, A

    2009-08-01

    To develop and test the predictability of a paediatric early warning score to identify children at risk of developing critical illness. Prospective cohort study. Admissions to all paediatric wards at the University Hospital of Wales. Respiratory arrest, cardiac arrest, paediatric high-dependency unit admission, paediatric intensive care unit admission and death. Data were collected on 1000 patients. A single abnormal observation determined by the Cardiff and Vale paediatric early warning system (C&VPEWS) had a 89.0% sensitivity (95% CI 80.5 to 94.1), 63.9% specificity (95% CI 63.8 to 63.9), 2.2% positive predictive value (95% CI 2.0 to 2.3) and a 99.8% negative predictive value (95% CI 99.7 to 99.9) for identifying children who subsequently had an adverse outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the C&VPEWS score was 0.86 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.91). Identifying children likely to develop critical illness can be difficult. The assessment tool developed from the advanced paediatric life support guidelines on identifying sick children appears to be sensitive but not specific. If the C&VPEWS was used as a trigger to activate a rapid response team to assess the child, the majority of calls would be unnecessary.

  16. Use of a modified pediatric early warning score in a department of pediatric and adolescent medicine.

    PubMed

    Solevåg, Anne L; Eggen, Elisabeth H; Schröder, Judith; Nakstad, Britt

    2013-01-01

    Several versions of the Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) exist, but there is limited information available on the use of such systems in different contexts. In the present study, we aimed to examine the relationship between a modified version of The Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) and patient characteristics in a Norwegian department of pediatric and adolescent medicine. In addition, we sought to establish guidelines for escalation in patient care based on the PEWS in our patient population. The medical records of patients referred for acute care from March to May 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Children with a PEWS ≥3 were compared to children with a PEWS 0-2 with regard to age, diagnostic group and indicators of severe disease. A total of 761 patients (0-18 years of age) were included in the analysis. A younger age and diagnostic groups such as lower airway and cardiovascular disease were associated with PEWS ≥3. Upper airway disease and minor injury were more frequent in patients with PEWS 0-2. Children with PEWS ≥3 received fluid resuscitation, intravenous antibiotics, and oxygen supplementation, and were transferred to a higher level of care more often than children with PEWS 0-2. A PEWS ≥3 was associated with severe illnesses and surrogate markers of cardio-respiratory compromise. Patients with PEWS ≥3 should be carefully monitored to prevent further deterioration.

  17. Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Recent research in ecology suggests that generic indicators, referred to as early warning signals (EWS), may occur before significant transformations, both critical and non-critical, in complex systems. Up to this point, research on EWS has largely focused on simple models and controlled experiments in ecology and climate science. When humans are considered in these arenas they are invariably seen as external sources of disturbance or management. In this article we explore ways to include societal components of socio-ecological systems directly in EWS analysis. Given the growing archaeological literature on ‘collapses,’ or transformations, in social systems, we investigate whether any early warning signals are apparent in the archaeological records of the build-up to two contemporaneous cases of social transformation in the prehistoric US Southwest, Mesa Verde and Zuni. The social transformations in these two cases differ in scope and severity, thus allowing us to explore the contexts under which warning signals may (or may not) emerge. In both cases our results show increasing variance in settlement size before the transformation, but increasing variance in social institutions only before the critical transformation in Mesa Verde. In the Zuni case, social institutions appear to have managed the process of significant social change. We conclude that variance is of broad relevance in anticipating social change, and the capacity of social institutions to mitigate transformation is critical to consider in EWS research on socio-ecological systems. PMID:27706200

  18. A topology visualization early warning distribution algorithm for large-scale network security incidents.

    PubMed

    He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

    2013-01-01

    It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology.

  19. Enhancing Drought Early Warning System for Sustainable Water Resources and Agricultural Management through Apllication of Space Science - Nigeria in Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okpara, J. N.; Akeh, L. E.; Anuforom, A. C.; Aribo, P. B.; Olayanju, S. O.

    Enhancing Drought Early Warning System for Sustainable Water Resources and Agriculture Management through Application of Space Science - Nigeria in Perspective BY J N Okpara L E Akeh Anuforom P B Aribo and S O Olayanju Directorate of Applied Meteorological Services Nigerian Meteorological Agency NIMET P M B 615 Garki Abuja Nigeria e-mail underline Juddy Okpara yahoo co uk and underline tonycanuforom yahoo com underline Abstract This paper attempts to highlight the importance of drought early warning system in water resources and agricultural management in Nigeria Various studies have shown that the negative impacts of droughts and other forms of extreme weather phenomena can be substantially reduced by providing early warning on any impending weather extremes X-rayed in this study are the various techniques presently used by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency NIMET in generating information for meteorological Early Warning System EWS which are based on models that make use of ground-based raingauge data and sea surface temperatures SST Komuscu standardized precipitation index SPI inclusive These methods are often limited by such factors as network density of stations limited communication infrastructure human inefficiency etc NIMET is therefore embarking on the development of a new Satellite Agrometeorological Information System SAMIS-Nigeria for famine and drought early warning The system combines satellite data with raingauge data to give a range of

  20. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  1. The effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Saab, Mohamad M; McCarthy, Bridie; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen; Drummond, Frances J; Walshe, Nuala; Forde, Mary; Breen, Dorothy; Henn, Patrick; Drennan, Jonathan; Hegarty, Josephine

    2017-11-01

    This review aims to determine the effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance. Early Warning Systems support timely identification of clinical deterioration and prevention of avoidable deaths. Several educational programmes have been designed to help nurses recognize and manage deteriorating patients. Little is known as to the effectiveness of these programmes. Systematic review. Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Psychology and Behavioral Science Collection, SocINDEX and the UK & Ireland Reference Centre, EMBASE, the Turning Research Into Practice database, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Grey Literature sources were searched between October and November 2015. This is a quantitative systematic review using Cochrane methods. Studies published between January 2011 - November 2015 in English were sought. The risk of bias, level of evidence and the quality of evidence per outcome were assessed. Eleven articles with 10 studies were included. Nine studies addressed clinical performance, four addressed knowledge and two addressed confidence. Knowledge, vital signs recording and Early Warning Score calculation were improved in the short term. Two interventions had no effect on nurses' response to clinical deterioration and use of communication tools. This review highlights the importance of measuring outcomes using standardized tools and valid and reliable instruments. Using longitudinal designs, researchers are encouraged to investigate the effect of Early Warning Systems educational programmes. These can include interactive e-learning, on-site interdisciplinary Early Warning Scoring systems training sessions and simulated scenarios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  3. Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.

    2012-12-01

    We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http

  4. Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold

  5. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

    2014-05-01

    Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement

  6. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones

  7. Research and implement of remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system based on GPS/GPRS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shiwu; Tian, Jingjing; Yang, Zhifa; Qiao, Feiyan

    2013-03-01

    Concerning the problem of road traffic safety, remote monitoring and early-warning of vehicle states was the key to prevent road traffic accidents and improve the transportation effectiveness. Through the embedded development technology, a remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system was developed based on UNO2170 industrial computer of Advantech with WinCE operating system using Embedded Visual C++ (EVC), which combined with multisensor data acquisition technology, global positioning system (GPS) and general packet radio service (GPRS). It achieved the remote monitoring and early-warning of commercial vehicle. This system was installed in a CA1046L2 light truck. Through many road tests, test results showed that the system reacted rapidly for abnormal vehicle states and had stable performance.

  8. Application of FBG sensing technique for monitoring and early warning system of high-speed railway track conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongjia; Liu, Fang; Jing, Yuhai; Li, Weilai

    2017-04-01

    High-speed railway has achieved remarkable development in China, and safety monitoring of high-speed railway is becoming an important research. Fiber bragg grating (FBG) sensing technology is applied for monitoring and early warning system of high-speed railway track condition in this paper. The sensor network is built by putting FBG sensors on the high-speed rail tracks, which is necessary for real-time online monitoring of railway track temperature, displacement and strain. These different variables are collected, processed and analyzed by FBG demodulator. In addition, the railway track temperature prediction model are established based on relevance vector regression algorithm, which further improves the prediction accuracy and generalization performance. The system has been applied in the realtime online monitoring and early warning system of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway track condition. The system is running in good condition and playing an important role in early warning.

  9. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  10. The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For

  11. A Simulation Study to Assess the Potential of Real-Time GPS for Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kejie; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Hoechner, Andreas; Ge, Maorong

    2014-05-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) has been proved to be a powerful tool for measuring co-seismic ground displacement with application to earthquake rupture inversion. Due to the fact that most of the tsunamis are triggered by large earthquakes, GPS could contribute to tsunami early warning by helping to resolve for the tsunami source in almost real-time. Recently, this became a core of the concept of a 'GPS-Shield for Tsunami Early Warning'. In present study we extend this concept to the Chilean Pacific continental margin. Chile is situated at the western margin of the South American plate which experiences constant tectonic forcing due to the actively subducted Nazca oceanic plate. This ongoing subduction makes almost the whole Chilean coast to be vulnerable to earthquake and tsunami threats. New Chilean tsunami early warning system is expected to incorporate the novel real-time GPS-component for fast source inversion. We use numerical simulation technique to evaluate the potential of the coastal real-time GPS arrays for reliable early warning. We provide start-to-end simulations of the related physical processes (earthquake rupture, ground shaking, tsunami generation and propagation) together with their sensor (GPS) imaging and processing. In particular, co-seismic GPS observations are simulated using Bernese 5.2 software. For GPS data processing, both Bernese 5.2 and (real-time) PANDA are adopted for comparison. We demonstrate our 'close-loop' simulation workbench together with main results reflecting the importance of the real-time GPS component for the tsunami early warning in Chile. Special attention is paid to the uncertainty propagation through the early warning chain.

  12. Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

  13. Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the

  14. Application of SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) in Early Warning Systems for Tsunamis and other Natural Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the target to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems. Two major objectives have steered the development process: usage of free and open source software (FOSS) and compliance to the principles of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The second objective was mainly driven by the superior ambition of the development of a generic early warning framework not only for tsunamis but also for other natural hazards. The development of a reference architecture enforced the clear separation between hazard-specific and generic functionality. Integration of sensor networks was realized with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [2] Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) [3] services. Sensor types are relatively specific for different hazard types: while inundation sensors can be used both for tsunami and floodwater hazards, contamination meters requires a complete different semantic integration into the client application. Based on sensor measurements a simulation system supports the operator with forecasts to enable the dissemination of precise warning messages. The simulation integration was realized with the Web Processing Service (WPS) [4] but here again semantic integration is simulation specific and has to be realized inside the client application. In contrast the integration of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) via Web Mapping Service (WMS) [5] and Web Feature Service (WFS) [6] to complete the situation report is independent from any hazard type and depends on the data availability and requirements of each warning centre. The downstream component - the message dissemination from the operator via information logistics to the dissemination channel endpoints - has been realized independently from any specific hazard type. Using the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [7] and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) [8] enables the re-usage for all kind

  15. r.massmov: a GRASS GIS module for landslide runout assessment in early warning monitoring systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannata, Massimiliano; Molinari, Monia; Meisina, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades, early warning systems have become a precious support in hazard management by helping in reducing the possible damages caused by natural and anthropic hazards. Furthermore, in the last years, thanks to the rapid advances in science and technology a new concept of innovative early warning systems has been developed taking advantage of the decreasing costs of sensors and the wide diffusion and coverage of internet services (WFS, WMS, WPS, SOS, etc.). In this concept, simulation models can play an important role: in fact, by allowing the objective assessment of the location and intensity of a possible disaster, they can provide valuable information to support decision makers in taking timely and appropriate disaster responses. r.massmov is a new GRASS GIS module for landslide runout simulation over complex topographies developed to meet the expectation of innovative early warning systems modeling services, identified by the authors through four key requirements: i) low simulation times, ii) geospatial capabilities, iii) three-dimensional analysis and iv) open source approach. The model, based on the combined use of shallow water equations and rheological formulas, is the result of a series of enhancements to the original Massmov2D code (Begueria et al. 2009) to significantly improve algorithms and computational times. With this work the authors want to illustrate the main characteristics of r.massmov model: the governing equations, the input/output data, the algorithms and the results of the model application on a case study located in Tessin (Switzerland) that highlighted the effectiveness of the changes performed to the original code in terms of time performances. Furthermore, the authors want to present a set of GRASS GIS specific tools for r.massmov (r.massmov.sensitivity, r.massmov.calibration, r.ucode), developed to systematize and simplify model sensitivity analysis and calibration procedures. References: Begueria S, Van Asch T W J, Malet J

  16. Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Madlazim

    2012-06-20

    Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant

  17. The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational

  18. Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in

  19. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  20. The Most Effective Methods for Delivering Severe Weather Early Warnings to Fishermen on Lake Victoria.

    PubMed

    Tushemereirwe, Richard; Tuhebwe, Doreen; Cooper, Mary Ann; D'ujanga, Florence Mutonyi

    2017-02-22

    Introduction: It is estimated that five thousand people die on Lake Victoria every year by drowning which is triggered by severe weather hazards like lightning. Objectives:  In order to improve predictability of severe weather conditions on Lake Victoria, there is need to deliver timely and effective Severe Weather Early Warning Systems (SWEWS) to those at risk. On Lake Victoria, previous SWEW service trials ceased with the end of the funding grants. This study therefore assessed the possibility of sustaining the SWEW service by assessing willingness to pay.   Methods: An assessment was conducted between March and May 2015 to determine the SWEW service improvements desired by the population. A convenience sample of respondents was gathered and interviewed during impromptu visits to landing sites on Lake Victoria. The respondents were also among community members that had earlier participated in a pilot assessing the feasibility of mobile phones is delivering SWEW alerts.  Semi-structured questionnaires were administered to fishermen and fisher folks at the landing site to gather suggestions/strategies for (i) better design and implementation of SWEW service, (ii) use of smart phones, and (iii) their ability and willingness to pay for a SWEW service. Results were presented as frequencies. Results: Two hundred fifteen respondents from fourteen landing sites (communities) were interviewed. Over 50% of the respondents (113/215) were aware about at least one community member who had been injured due to lightening on the lake in the past year. Ninety two percent (198/215) of the respondents reported using mobile phones as their main tool of communication but only 4% had smart phones that could receive early warning weather alerts through internet connectivity. Seventy five percent of respondents said they would welcome a system that could deliver commercial weather alerts and 65% were willing to pay for such a service.   Conclusions: A SWEW service is feasible in