The theory of reasoned action as parallel constraint satisfaction: towards a dynamic computational model of health behavior.

PubMed

Orr, Mark G; Thrush, Roxanne; Plaut, David C

2013-01-01

The reasoned action approach, although ubiquitous in health behavior theory (e.g., Theory of Reasoned Action/Planned Behavior), does not adequately address two key dynamical aspects of health behavior: learning and the effect of immediate social context (i.e., social influence). To remedy this, we put forth a computational implementation of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) using artificial-neural networks. Our model re-conceptualized behavioral intention as arising from a dynamic constraint satisfaction mechanism among a set of beliefs. In two simulations, we show that constraint satisfaction can simultaneously incorporate the effects of past experience (via learning) with the effects of immediate social context to yield behavioral intention, i.e., intention is dynamically constructed from both an individual's pre-existing belief structure and the beliefs of others in the individual's social context. In a third simulation, we illustrate the predictive ability of the model with respect to empirically derived behavioral intention. As the first known computational model of health behavior, it represents a significant advance in theory towards understanding the dynamics of health behavior. Furthermore, our approach may inform the development of population-level agent-based models of health behavior that aim to incorporate psychological theory into models of population dynamics.

The Theory of Reasoned Action as Parallel Constraint Satisfaction: Towards a Dynamic Computational Model of Health Behavior

PubMed Central

Orr, Mark G.; Thrush, Roxanne; Plaut, David C.

2013-01-01

The reasoned action approach, although ubiquitous in health behavior theory (e.g., Theory of Reasoned Action/Planned Behavior), does not adequately address two key dynamical aspects of health behavior: learning and the effect of immediate social context (i.e., social influence). To remedy this, we put forth a computational implementation of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) using artificial-neural networks. Our model re-conceptualized behavioral intention as arising from a dynamic constraint satisfaction mechanism among a set of beliefs. In two simulations, we show that constraint satisfaction can simultaneously incorporate the effects of past experience (via learning) with the effects of immediate social context to yield behavioral intention, i.e., intention is dynamically constructed from both an individual’s pre-existing belief structure and the beliefs of others in the individual’s social context. In a third simulation, we illustrate the predictive ability of the model with respect to empirically derived behavioral intention. As the first known computational model of health behavior, it represents a significant advance in theory towards understanding the dynamics of health behavior. Furthermore, our approach may inform the development of population-level agent-based models of health behavior that aim to incorporate psychological theory into models of population dynamics. PMID:23671603

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size.

PubMed

Schwalger, Tilo; Deger, Moritz; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-04-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50-2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations.

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

PubMed Central

Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

2013-01-01

Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

1981-01-01

A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size

PubMed Central

Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-01-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50–2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations. PMID:28422957

Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

PubMed Central

Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

2014-01-01

A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

Dynamical Systems Theory: Application to Pedagogy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abraham, Jane L.

Theories of learning affect how cognition is viewed, and this subsequently leads to the style of pedagogical practice that is used in education. Traditionally, educators have relied on a variety of theories on which to base pedagogy. Behavioral learning theories influenced the teaching/learning process for over 50 years. In the 1960s, the information processing approach brought the mind back into the learning process. The current emphasis on constructivism integrates the views of Piaget, Vygotsky, and cognitive psychology. Additionally, recent scientific advances have allowed researchers to shift attention to biological processes in cognition. The problem is that these theories do not provide an integrated approach to understanding principles responsible for differences among students in cognitive development and learning ability. Dynamical systems theory offers a unifying theoretical framework to explain the wider context in which learning takes place and the processes involved in individual learning. This paper describes how principles of Dynamic Systems Theory can be applied to cognitive processes of students, the classroom community, motivation to learn, and the teaching/learning dynamic giving educational psychologists a framework for research and pedagogy.

Extensions and evaluations of a general quantitative theory of forest structure and dynamics

PubMed Central

Enquist, Brian J.; West, Geoffrey B.; Brown, James H.

2009-01-01

Here, we present the second part of a quantitative theory for the structure and dynamics of forests under demographic and resource steady state. The theory is based on individual-level allometric scaling relations for how trees use resources, fill space, and grow. These scale up to determine emergent properties of diverse forests, including size–frequency distributions, spacing relations, canopy configurations, mortality rates, population dynamics, successional dynamics, and resource flux rates. The theory uniquely makes quantitative predictions for both stand-level scaling exponents and normalizations. We evaluate these predictions by compiling and analyzing macroecological datasets from several tropical forests. The close match between theoretical predictions and data suggests that forests are organized by a set of very general scaling rules. Our mechanistic theory is based on allometric scaling relations, is complementary to “demographic theory,” but is fundamentally different in approach. It provides a quantitative baseline for understanding deviations from predictions due to other factors, including disturbance, variation in branching architecture, asymmetric competition, resource limitation, and other sources of mortality, which are not included in the deliberately simplified theory. The theory should apply to a wide range of forests despite large differences in abiotic environment, species diversity, and taxonomic and functional composition. PMID:19363161

Evolutionary Game Theory in Growing Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melbinger, Anna; Cremer, Jonas; Frey, Erwin

2010-10-01

Existing theoretical models of evolution focus on the relative fitness advantages of different mutants in a population while the dynamic behavior of the population size is mostly left unconsidered. We present here a generic stochastic model which combines the growth dynamics of the population and its internal evolution. Our model thereby accounts for the fact that both evolutionary and growth dynamics are based on individual reproduction events and hence are highly coupled and stochastic in nature. We exemplify our approach by studying the dilemma of cooperation in growing populations and show that genuinely stochastic events can ease the dilemma by leading to a transient but robust increase in cooperation.

Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

2010-10-01

We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t < t1 = κb) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t_1\\lt t\\lt t_2\\propto \\kappa_a and for which θ0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapitza, Sergei P.

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

PubMed Central

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

2014-01-01

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

2014-05-06

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed Central

Sinclair, A R E

2003-01-01

The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

Strong dynamics and lattice gauge theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaich, David

In this dissertation I use lattice gauge theory to study models of electroweak symmetry breaking that involve new strong dynamics. Electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) is the process by which elementary particles acquire mass. First proposed in the 1960s, this process has been clearly established by experiments, and can now be considered a law of nature. However, the physics underlying EWSB is still unknown, and understanding it remains a central challenge in particle physics today. A natural possibility is that EWSB is driven by the dynamics of some new, strongly-interacting force. Strong interactions invalidate the standard analytical approach of perturbation theory, making these models difficult to study. Lattice gauge theory is the premier method for obtaining quantitatively-reliable, nonperturbative predictions from strongly-interacting theories. In this approach, we replace spacetime by a regular, finite grid of discrete sites connected by links. The fields and interactions described by the theory are likewise discretized, and defined on the lattice so that we recover the original theory in continuous spacetime on an infinitely large lattice with sites infinitesimally close together. The finite number of degrees of freedom in the discretized system lets us simulate the lattice theory using high-performance computing. Lattice gauge theory has long been applied to quantum chromodynamics, the theory of strong nuclear interactions. Using lattice gauge theory to study dynamical EWSB, as I do in this dissertation, is a new and exciting application of these methods. Of particular interest is non-perturbative lattice calculation of the electroweak S parameter. Experimentally S ≈ -0.15(10), which tightly constrains dynamical EWSB. On the lattice, I extract S from the momentum-dependence of vector and axial-vector current correlators. I created and applied computer programs to calculate these correlators and analyze them to determine S. I also calculated the masses

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Dynamics of polymers: A mean-field theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fredrickson, Glenn H.; Materials Research Laboratory, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106; Department of Materials, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106

2014-02-28

We derive a general mean-field theory of inhomogeneous polymer dynamics; a theory whose form has been speculated and widely applied, but not heretofore derived. Our approach involves a functional integral representation of a Martin-Siggia-Rose (MSR) type description of the exact many-chain dynamics. A saddle point approximation to the generating functional, involving conditions where the MSR action is stationary with respect to a collective density field ρ and a conjugate MSR response field ϕ, produces the desired dynamical mean-field theory. Besides clarifying the proper structure of mean-field theory out of equilibrium, our results have implications for numerical studies of polymer dynamicsmore » involving hybrid particle-field simulation techniques such as the single-chain in mean-field method.« less

Gauge theory for finite-dimensional dynamical systems.

PubMed

Gurfil, Pini

2007-06-01

Gauge theory is a well-established concept in quantum physics, electrodynamics, and cosmology. This concept has recently proliferated into new areas, such as mechanics and astrodynamics. In this paper, we discuss a few applications of gauge theory in finite-dimensional dynamical systems. We focus on the concept of rescriptive gauge symmetry, which is, in essence, rescaling of an independent variable. We show that a simple gauge transformation of multiple harmonic oscillators driven by chaotic processes can render an apparently "disordered" flow into a regular dynamical process, and that there exists a strong connection between gauge transformations and reduction theory of ordinary differential equations. Throughout the discussion, we demonstrate the main ideas by considering examples from diverse fields, including quantum mechanics, chemistry, rigid-body dynamics, and information theory.

Evolutionary dynamics of public goods games with diverse contributions in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Wu, Bin; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Long

2010-05-01

The public goods game is a powerful metaphor for exploring the maintenance of social cooperative behavior in a group of interactional selfish players. Here we study the emergence of cooperation in the public goods games with diverse contributions in finite populations. The theory of stochastic process is innovatively adopted to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of the public goods games involving a diversity of contributions. In the limit of rare mutations, the general stationary distribution of this stochastic process can be analytically approximated by means of diffusion theory. Moreover, we demonstrate that increasing the diversity of contributions greatly reduces the probability of finding the population in a homogeneous state full of defectors. This increase also raises the expectation of the total contribution in the entire population and thus promotes social cooperation. Furthermore, by investigating the evolutionary dynamics of optional public goods games with diverse contributions, we find that nonparticipation can assist players who contribute more in resisting invasion and taking over individuals who contribute less. In addition, numerical simulations are performed to confirm our analytical results. Our results may provide insight into the effect of diverse contributions on cooperative behaviors in the real world.

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

General dynamical density functional theory for classical fluids.

PubMed

Goddard, Benjamin D; Nold, Andreas; Savva, Nikos; Pavliotis, Grigorios A; Kalliadasis, Serafim

2012-09-21

We study the dynamics of a colloidal fluid including inertia and hydrodynamic interactions, two effects which strongly influence the nonequilibrium properties of the system. We derive a general dynamical density functional theory which shows very good agreement with full Langevin dynamics. In suitable limits, we recover existing dynamical density functional theories and a Navier-Stokes-like equation with additional nonlocal terms.

Gauge theory for finite-dimensional dynamical systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gurfil, Pini

2007-06-15

Gauge theory is a well-established concept in quantum physics, electrodynamics, and cosmology. This concept has recently proliferated into new areas, such as mechanics and astrodynamics. In this paper, we discuss a few applications of gauge theory in finite-dimensional dynamical systems. We focus on the concept of rescriptive gauge symmetry, which is, in essence, rescaling of an independent variable. We show that a simple gauge transformation of multiple harmonic oscillators driven by chaotic processes can render an apparently ''disordered'' flow into a regular dynamical process, and that there exists a strong connection between gauge transformations and reduction theory of ordinary differentialmore » equations. Throughout the discussion, we demonstrate the main ideas by considering examples from diverse fields, including quantum mechanics, chemistry, rigid-body dynamics, and information theory.« less

Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2017-02-01

In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

PubMed

Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

2010-05-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

Contributions of Dynamic Systems Theory to Cognitive Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, John P.; Austin, Andrew; Schutte, Anne R.

2012-01-01

We examine the contributions of dynamic systems theory to the field of cognitive development, focusing on modeling using dynamic neural fields. After introducing central concepts of dynamic field theory (DFT), we probe empirical predictions and findings around two examples--the DFT of infant perseverative reaching that explains Piaget's A-not-B…

Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models.

PubMed

Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

2016-01-01

Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity.

Transport theory and fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenberg, W.; Zweifel, P. F.

We report progress in various areas of applied mathematics relevant to transport theory under the subjects: abstract transport theory, explicit transport models and computation, and fluid dynamics. We present a brief review of progress during the past year and personnel supported, and we indicate the direction of our future research.

Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis. PMID:27508413

Heterogeneous population dynamics and scaling laws near epidemic outbreaks.

PubMed

Widder, Andreas; Kuehn, Christian

2016-10-01

In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical reformulation of the basic reproduction number, the homogeneous system and the heterogeneous system exhibit a completely analogous global behaviour. Then we consider noise terms to incorporate the fluctuation effects and the random import of the disease into the population and analyse the influence of heterogeneity on warning signs for critical transitions (or tipping points). This theory shows that one may be able to anticipate whether a bifurcation point is close before it happens. We use numerical simulations of a stochastic fast-slow heterogeneous population SIS model and show various aspects of heterogeneity have crucial influences on the scaling laws that are used as early-warning signs for the homogeneous system. Thus, although the basic structural qualitative dynamical properties are the same for both systems, the quantitative features for epidemic prediction are expected to change and care has to be taken to interpret potential warning signs for disease outbreaks correctly.

Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

PubMed

Sarkar, Bijan

2016-01-01

Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mutator dynamics in sexual and asexual experimental populations of yeast.

PubMed

Raynes, Yevgeniy; Gazzara, Matthew R; Sniegowski, Paul D

2011-06-07

In asexual populations, mutators may be expected to hitchhike with associated beneficial mutations. In sexual populations, recombination is predicted to erode such associations, inhibiting mutator hitchhiking. To investigate the effect of recombination on mutators experimentally, we compared the frequency dynamics of a mutator allele (msh2Δ) in sexual and asexual populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Mutator strains increased in frequency at the expense of wild-type strains in all asexual diploid populations, with some approaching fixation in 150 generations of propagation. Over the same period of time, mutators declined toward loss in all corresponding sexual diploid populations as well as in haploid populations propagated asexually. We report the first experimental investigation of mutator dynamics in sexual populations. We show that a strong mutator quickly declines in sexual populations while hitchhiking to high frequency in asexual diploid populations, as predicted by theory. We also show that the msh2Δ mutator has a high and immediate realized cost that is alone sufficient to explain its decline in sexual populations. We postulate that this cost is indirect; namely, that it is due to a very high rate of recessive lethal or strongly deleterious mutation. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that msh2Δ also has unknown directly deleterious effects on fitness, and that these effects may differ between haploid asexual and sexual populations. Despite these reservations, our results prompt us to speculate that the short-term cost of highly deleterious recessive mutations can be as important as recombination in preventing mutator hitchhiking in sexual populations.

Local interactions lead to pathogen-driven change to host population dynamics.

PubMed

Boots, Michael; Childs, Dylan; Reuman, Daniel C; Mealor, Michael

2009-10-13

Individuals tend to interact more strongly with nearby individuals or within particular social groups. Recent theoretical advances have demonstrated that these within-population relationships can have fundamental implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, contact networks are crucial to the spread and evolution of disease. However, the theory remains largely untested experimentally. Here, we manipulate habitat viscosity and thereby the frequency of local interactions in an insect-pathogen model system in which the virus had previously been shown to have little effect on host population dynamics. At high viscosity, the pathogen caused the collapse of dominant and otherwise stable host generation cycles. Modeling shows that this collapse can be explained by an increase in the frequency of intracohort interactions relative to intercohort interactions, leading to more disease transmission. Our work emphasizes that spatial structure can subtly mediate intraspecific competition and the effects of natural enemies. A decrease in dispersal in a population may actually (sometimes rather counterintuitively) intensify the effects of parasites. Broadly, because anthropological and environmental change often cause changes in population mixing, our work highlights the potential for dramatic changes in the effects of parasites on host populations.

[Karl Marx and the Malthusian theory of population].

PubMed

Jaggi, S

1985-06-01

An analysis of the works of Karl Marx is presented in order to demonstrate the importance of the population factor. The author contends that population growth is a critical factor in Marx's theory of the progressive impoverishment of the working class. However, because of his reluctance to acknowledge the value of the Malthusian contribution, Marx focused his analysis of the labor force under capitalism on the demand for workers and neglected the supply side, which is determined by the growth of population. The author concludes that Marxist theory would have benefited from greater consideration of Malthusian theory.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control.

PubMed

Smith, David L; Perkins, T Alex; Reiner, Robert C; Barker, Christopher M; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M; George, Dylan B; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A T; Garcia, Andres J; Gatton, Michelle L; Gething, Peter W; Hartley, David M; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L; Pigott, David M; Reisen, William K; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H Charles J; Cohen, Justin M; Hay, Simon I; Scott, Thomas W

2014-04-01

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross-Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

PubMed Central

Smith, David L.; Perkins, T. Alex; Reiner, Robert C.; Barker, Christopher M.; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M.; George, Dylan B.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R. C.; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Garcia, Andres J.; Gatton, Michelle L.; Gething, Peter W.; Hartley, David M.; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y.; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L.; Pigott, David M.; Reisen, William K.; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K.; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J.; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Cohen, Justin M.; Hay, Simon I.; Scott, Thomas W.

2014-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control. PMID:24591453

Theories of dynamical phenomena in sunspots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. H.

1981-01-01

Attempts that have been made to understand and explain observed dynamical phenomena in sunspots within the framework of magnetohydrodynamic theory are surveyed. The qualitative aspects of the theory and physical arguments are emphasized, with mathematical details generally avoided. The dynamical phenomena in sunspots are divided into two categories: aperiodic (quasi-steady) and oscillatory. For each phenomenon discussed, the salient observational features that any theory should explain are summarized. The two contending theoretical models that can account for the fine structure of the Evershed motion, namely the convective roll model and the siphon flow model, are described. With regard to oscillatory phenomena, attention is given to overstability and oscillatory convection, umbral oscillations and flashes. penumbral waves, five-minute oscillations in sunspots, and the wave cooling of sunspots.

Contributions of Dynamic Systems Theory to Cognitive Development

PubMed Central

Spencer, John P.; Austin, Andrew; Schutte, Anne R.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the contributions of dynamic systems theory to the field of cognitive development, focusing on modeling using dynamic neural fields. A brief overview highlights the contributions of dynamic systems theory and the central concepts of dynamic field theory (DFT). We then probe empirical predictions and findings generated by DFT around two examples—the DFT of infant perseverative reaching that explains the Piagetian A-not-B error, and the DFT of spatial memory that explain changes in spatial cognition in early development. A systematic review of the literature around these examples reveals that computational modeling is having an impact on empirical research in cognitive development; however, this impact does not extend to neural and clinical research. Moreover, there is a tendency for researchers to interpret models narrowly, anchoring them to specific tasks. We conclude on an optimistic note, encouraging both theoreticians and experimentalists to work toward a more theory-driven future. PMID:26052181

Dynamic ride-sharing: Theory and practice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hall, R.W.; Qureshi, A.

1997-08-01

Dynamic Ride-sharing (DR) is envisioned as an automated process by which individuals find ride-matches on a trip by trip basis. This paper examines the DR concept on both a theoretical basis and on the basis of actual implementation in Los Angeles. Specifically, the paper investigates the likelihood that the user of a DR system would be successful in finding a ride-match. In a theoretical sense, this paper shows that dynamic ride-sharing is a viable concept. For a congested freeway corridor, the number of trips generated per unit time and space should be sufficient to yield a reasonably large population ofmore » potential ride-matches for a DR system. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in the experiment, theory and practice are not the same. Even when individuals share common trip patterns, consummating a ride-match is no easy task for logistical reasons. At best, one might expect a one in five change of someone offering a ride when trip patterns are similar. This probability would decline for casual trips, and when contacting individuals who have not expressed a prior willingness to carpool.« less

Neutral Theory and Scale-Free Neural Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinello, Matteo; Hidalgo, Jorge; Maritan, Amos; di Santo, Serena; Plenz, Dietmar; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-10-01

Neural tissues have been consistently observed to be spontaneously active and to generate highly variable (scale-free distributed) outbursts of activity in vivo and in vitro. Understanding whether these heterogeneous patterns of activity stem from the underlying neural dynamics operating at the edge of a phase transition is a fascinating possibility, as criticality has been argued to entail many possible important functional advantages in biological computing systems. Here, we employ a well-accepted model for neural dynamics to elucidate an alternative scenario in which diverse neuronal avalanches, obeying scaling, can coexist simultaneously, even if the network operates in a regime far from the edge of any phase transition. We show that perturbations to the system state unfold dynamically according to a "neutral drift" (i.e., guided only by stochasticity) with respect to the background of endogenous spontaneous activity, and that such a neutral dynamics—akin to neutral theories of population genetics and of biogeography—implies marginal propagation of perturbations and scale-free distributed causal avalanches. We argue that causal information, not easily accessible to experiments, is essential to elucidate the nature and statistics of neural avalanches, and that neutral dynamics is likely to play an important role in the cortex functioning. We discuss the implications of these findings to design new empirical approaches to shed further light on how the brain processes and stores information.

Shear-transformation-zone theory of linear glassy dynamics.

PubMed

Bouchbinder, Eran; Langer, J S

2011-06-01

We present a linearized shear-transformation-zone (STZ) theory of glassy dynamics in which the internal STZ transition rates are characterized by a broad distribution of activation barriers. For slowly aging or fully aged systems, the main features of the barrier-height distribution are determined by the effective temperature and other near-equilibrium properties of the configurational degrees of freedom. Our theory accounts for the wide range of relaxation rates observed in both metallic glasses and soft glassy materials such as colloidal suspensions. We find that the frequency-dependent loss modulus is not just a superposition of Maxwell modes. Rather, it exhibits an α peak that rises near the viscous relaxation rate and, for nearly jammed, glassy systems, extends to much higher frequencies in accord with experimental observations. We also use this theory to compute strain recovery following a period of large, persistent deformation and then abrupt unloading. We find that strain recovery is determined in part by the initial barrier-height distribution, but that true structural aging also occurs during this process and determines the system's response to subsequent perturbations. In particular, we find by comparison with experimental data that the initial deformation produces a highly disordered state with a large population of low activation barriers, and that this state relaxes quickly toward one in which the distribution is dominated by the high barriers predicted by the near-equilibrium analysis. The nonequilibrium dynamics of the barrier-height distribution is the most important of the issues raised and left unresolved in this paper.

A quantum-classical theory with nonlinear and stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burić, N.; Popović, D. B.; Radonjić, M.; Prvanović, S.

2014-12-01

The method of constrained dynamical systems on the quantum-classical phase space is utilized to develop a theory of quantum-classical hybrid systems. Effects of the classical degrees of freedom on the quantum part are modeled using an appropriate constraint, and the interaction also includes the effects of neglected degrees of freedom. Dynamical law of the theory is given in terms of nonlinear stochastic differential equations with Hamiltonian and gradient terms. The theory provides a successful dynamical description of the collapse during quantum measurement.

System Theory Aspects of Multi-Body Dynamics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-08-18

systems are described from a system theory point of view. Various system theory concepts and research topics which have applicability to this class of...systems are identified and briefly described. The subject of multi-body dynamics is presented in a vector space setting and is related to system theory concepts. (Author)

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Integral control for population management.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Logemann, Hartmut; Rebarber, Richard; Bill, Adam; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Hodgson, Dave; Townley, Stuart

2015-04-01

We present a novel management methodology for restocking a declining population. The strategy uses integral control, a concept ubiquitous in control theory which has not been applied to population dynamics. Integral control is based on dynamic feedback-using measurements of the population to inform management strategies and is robust to model uncertainty, an important consideration for ecological models. We demonstrate from first principles why such an approach to population management is suitable via theory and examples.

Application of control theory to dynamic systems simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Auslander, D. M.; Spear, R. C.; Young, G. E.

1982-01-01

The application of control theory is applied to dynamic systems simulation. Theory and methodology applicable to controlled ecological life support systems are considered. Spatial effects on system stability, design of control systems with uncertain parameters, and an interactive computing language (PARASOL-II) designed for dynamic system simulation, report quality graphics, data acquisition, and simple real time control are discussed.

Theory of networked minority games based on strategy pattern dynamics.

PubMed

Lo, T S; Chan, H Y; Hui, P M; Johnson, N F

2004-11-01

We formulate a theory of agent-based models in which agents compete to be in a winning group. The agents may be part of a network or not, and the winning group may be a minority group or not. An important feature of the present formalism is its focus on the dynamical pattern of strategy rankings, and its careful treatment of the strategy ties which arise during the system's temporal evolution. We apply it to the minority game with connected populations. Expressions for the mean success rate among the agents and for the mean success rate for agents with k neighbors are derived. We also use the theory to estimate the value of connectivity p above which the binary-agent-resource system with high resource levels makes the transition into the high-connectivity state.

Black hole dynamics in Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschmann, Eric W.; Lehner, Luis; Liebling, Steven L.; Palenzuela, Carlos

2018-03-01

We consider the properties and dynamics of black holes within a family of alternative theories of gravity, namely Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton theory. We analyze the dynamical evolution of individual black holes as well as the merger of binary black hole systems. We do this for a wide range of parameter values for the family of Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton theories, investigating, in the process, the stability of these black holes. We examine radiative degrees of freedom, explore the impact of the scalar field on the dynamics of merger, and compare with other scalar-tensor theories. We argue that the dilaton can largely be discounted in understanding merging binary systems and that the end states essentially interpolate between charged and uncharged, rotating black holes. For the relatively small charge values considered here, we conclude that these black hole systems will be difficult to distinguish from their analogs within General Relativity.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

PubMed

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Moving to higher ground: The dynamic field theory and the dynamics of visual cognition

PubMed Central

Johnson, Jeffrey S.; Spencer, John P.; Schöner, Gregor

2009-01-01

In the present report, we describe a new dynamic field theory that captures the dynamics of visuo-spatial cognition. This theory grew out of the dynamic systems approach to motor control and development, and is grounded in neural principles. The initial application of dynamic field theory to issues in visuo-spatial cognition extended concepts of the motor approach to decision making in a sensori-motor context, and, more recently, to the dynamics of spatial cognition. Here we extend these concepts still further to address topics in visual cognition, including visual working memory for non-spatial object properties, the processes that underlie change detection, and the ‘binding problem’ in vision. In each case, we demonstrate that the general principles of the dynamic field approach can unify findings in the literature and generate novel predictions. We contend that the application of these concepts to visual cognition avoids the pitfalls of reductionist approaches in cognitive science, and points toward a formal integration of brains, bodies, and behavior. PMID:19173013

Development of a dynamic computational model of social cognitive theory.

PubMed

Riley, William T; Martin, Cesar A; Rivera, Daniel E; Hekler, Eric B; Adams, Marc A; Buman, Matthew P; Pavel, Misha; King, Abby C

2016-12-01

Social cognitive theory (SCT) is among the most influential theories of behavior change and has been used as the conceptual basis of health behavior interventions for smoking cessation, weight management, and other health behaviors. SCT and other behavior theories were developed primarily to explain differences between individuals, but explanatory theories of within-person behavioral variability are increasingly needed as new technologies allow for intensive longitudinal measures and interventions adapted from these inputs. These within-person explanatory theoretical applications can be modeled as dynamical systems. SCT constructs, such as reciprocal determinism, are inherently dynamical in nature, but SCT has not been modeled as a dynamical system. This paper describes the development of a dynamical system model of SCT using fluid analogies and control systems principles drawn from engineering. Simulations of this model were performed to assess if the model performed as predicted based on theory and empirical studies of SCT. This initial model generates precise and testable quantitative predictions for future intensive longitudinal research. Dynamic modeling approaches provide a rigorous method for advancing health behavior theory development and refinement and for guiding the development of more potent and efficient interventions.

Marx's scientific theory of surplus population.

PubMed

Liu, Z

1985-07-01

This paper discusses Marx's scientific theory of surplus population in relation to the Malthusian theory of population. Marx establishes the principle that the existence of relative surplus population is determined by the immanent conditions of the mode of social production. Marx proves scientifically that the appearance of capitalist surplus population is not due to the abstract numerical ratio relation proposed by Mathus in which natural reproduction of humanity takes the geometric progression and the increase in the means of subsistence the arithmetic, but is the result of capitalist accumulation, the increase of the organic component of capital, the incessant increase in constant capital, and the relative decrease in the variable part of capital. Surplus population, according to Marx, cannot be compared with the surplus of the means of subsistence but with its condition of reproduction. Marx differentiates the surplus population into 2 kinds: the ancient population presses on the productive power, while modern productive power presses on population. In class society based on private ownership of the means of production, laborers can realize the integration with the means of production only under the condition that they provide the exploiters with surplus product; therefore, a certain amount of the laboring population are always turning into the relative surplus population. In the process of transition from the transitional to the modern type of population reproduction, there exists a traditional type of population characterized by a high birth rate, low mortality, and high natural growth rate. The situation in China is the result of the level of development of the productive forces and the corresponding underdevelopment of culture and education, but it is by no means the result of the effect of Malthus's "natural law" that population increases in a geometric progression.

Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2012-02-01

How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

Dynamic Self-Consistent Field Theories for Polymer Blends and Block Copolymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawakatsu, Toshihiro

Understanding the behavior of the phase separated domain structures and rheological properties of multi-component polymeric systems require detailed information on the dynamics of domains and that of conformations of constituent polymer chains. Self-consistent field (SCF) theory is a useful tool to treat such a problem because the conformation entropy of polymer chains in inhomogeneous systems can be evaluated quantitatively using this theory. However, when we turn our attention to the dynamic properties in a non-equilibrium state, the basic assumption of the SCF theory, i.e. the assumption of equilibrium chain conformation, breaks down. In order to avoid such a difficulty, dynamic SCF theories were developed. In this chapter, we give a brief review of the recent developments of dynamic SCF theories, and discuss where the cutting-edge of this theory is.

Limiting similarity and niche theory for structured populations.

PubMed

Szilágyi, András; Meszéna, Géza

2009-05-07

We develop the theory of limiting similarity and niche for structured populations with finite number of individual states (i-state). In line with a previously published theory for unstructured populations, the niche of a species is specified by the impact and sensitivity niche vectors. They describe the population's impact on and sensitivity towards the variables involved in the population regulation. Robust coexistence requires sufficient segregation of the impact, as well as of the sensitivity niche vectors. Connection between the population-level impact and sensitivity and the impact/sensitivity of the specific i-states is developed. Each i-state contributes to the impact of the population proportional to its frequency in the population. Sensitivity of the population is composed of the sensitivity of the rates of demographic transitions, weighted by the frequency and by the reproductive value of the initial and final i-states of the transition, respectively. Coexistence in a multi-patch environment is studied. This analysis is interpreted as spatial niche segregation.

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Childs, Dylan Z; Oli, Madan K; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Olson, Lucretia E; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

2010-07-22

Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments.

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change

PubMed Central

Ozgul, Arpat; Childs, Dylan Z.; Oli, Madan K.; Armitage, Kenneth B.; Blumstein, Daniel T.; Olson, Lucretia E.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

2017-01-01

Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species1,2. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown due to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework3. Here, we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a novel methodology and an exceptional long-term (1976–2008) dataset from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses prior to hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change had comparable contributions to the observed dramatic increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments4,5. PMID:20651690

Nonlinear dynamical systems for theory and research in ergonomics.

PubMed

Guastello, Stephen J

2017-02-01

Nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) theory offers new constructs, methods and explanations for phenomena that have in turn produced new paradigms of thinking within several disciplines of the behavioural sciences. This article explores the recent developments of NDS as a paradigm in ergonomics. The exposition includes its basic axioms, the primary constructs from elementary dynamics and so-called complexity theory, an overview of its methods, and growing areas of application within ergonomics. The applications considered here include: psychophysics, iconic displays, control theory, cognitive workload and fatigue, occupational accidents, resilience of systems, team coordination and synchronisation in systems. Although these applications make use of different subsets of NDS constructs, several of them share the general principles of the complex adaptive system. Practitioner Summary: Nonlinear dynamical systems theory reframes problems in ergonomics that involve complex systems as they change over time. The leading applications to date include psychophysics, control theory, cognitive workload and fatigue, biomechanics, occupational accidents, resilience of systems, team coordination and synchronisation of system components.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics.

PubMed

Kirk, Devin; Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-02-01

The complexity of host-parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host-parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host-parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics

PubMed Central

Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K.; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-01-01

The complexity of host–parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host–parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host–parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level. PMID:29415043

Investigating the Perceptions of Care Coordinators on Using Behavior Theory-Based Mobile Health Technology With Medicaid Populations: A Grounded Theory Study

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Medicaid populations are less engaged in their health care than the rest of the population, translating to worse health outcomes and increased health care costs. Since theory-based mobile health (mHealth) interventions have been shown to increase patient engagement, mobile phones may be an optimal strategy to reach this population. With increased development of theory-based mHealth technology, these interventions must now be evaluated with these medically underserved populations in a real-world setting. Objective The aim of our study was to investigate care coordinators’ perceived value of using a health behavior theory-based mHealth platform with Medicaid clients. In particular, attention was paid to the perceived impact on patient engagement. This research was conducted using the patient-provider text messaging (short message service, SMS) platform, Sense Health (now Wellpass), which integrates the transtheoretical model (TTM), also called the stages of change model; social cognitive theory (SCT); supportive accountability; and motivational interviewing (MI). Methods Interviews based in grounded theory methodology were conducted with 10 care managers to understand perceptions of the relationship between mHealth and patient engagement. Results The interviews with care managers yielded a foundation for a grounded theory model, presenting themes that suggested 4 intertwined correlative relationships revolving around patient engagement: (1) A text messaging (short message service, SMS) platform supplements the client-care manager dynamic, which is grounded in high quality, reciprocal-communication to increase patient engagement; (2) Texting enhances the relationship between literacy and access to care for Medicaid patients, increasing low-literacy patients’ agency to access services; (3) Texting enhances communication, providing care managers with a new means to support their clients; and (4) Reminders augment client accountability, leading to both

Investigating the Perceptions of Care Coordinators on Using Behavior Theory-Based Mobile Health Technology With Medicaid Populations: A Grounded Theory Study.

PubMed

Sigler, Brittany Erika

2017-03-21

Medicaid populations are less engaged in their health care than the rest of the population, translating to worse health outcomes and increased health care costs. Since theory-based mobile health (mHealth) interventions have been shown to increase patient engagement, mobile phones may be an optimal strategy to reach this population. With increased development of theory-based mHealth technology, these interventions must now be evaluated with these medically underserved populations in a real-world setting. The aim of our study was to investigate care coordinators' perceived value of using a health behavior theory-based mHealth platform with Medicaid clients. In particular, attention was paid to the perceived impact on patient engagement. This research was conducted using the patient-provider text messaging (short message service, SMS) platform, Sense Health (now Wellpass), which integrates the transtheoretical model (TTM), also called the stages of change model; social cognitive theory (SCT); supportive accountability; and motivational interviewing (MI). Interviews based in grounded theory methodology were conducted with 10 care managers to understand perceptions of the relationship between mHealth and patient engagement. The interviews with care managers yielded a foundation for a grounded theory model, presenting themes that suggested 4 intertwined correlative relationships revolving around patient engagement: (1) A text messaging (short message service, SMS) platform supplements the client-care manager dynamic, which is grounded in high quality, reciprocal-communication to increase patient engagement; (2) Texting enhances the relationship between literacy and access to care for Medicaid patients, increasing low-literacy patients' agency to access services; (3) Texting enhances communication, providing care managers with a new means to support their clients; and (4) Reminders augment client accountability, leading to both increased motivation and readiness to change

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

[Research on population theory must be integrated with China's reality].

PubMed

Qian, X

1983-05-29

This article is based upon a speech delivered by the author to a conference on population theory in memory of the centennial celebration of the death of Karl Marx. The conference was organized by the Institute of Population Theory of the Chinese People's University. According to the author, the only correct way to study population theory is to use the Marxist population theory as a guiding principle and integrate it with China's reality, and the format of dogmatism should not be adopted. The work on population theory studies should be established on a political and scientific foundation. The Chinese people should have a clear understanding of the goal of limiting China's population figure to under 1.2 billion at the end of this century. To reach this goal, the general public must be educated and understand to close relationship between family planning and the economic and social development of all of China. Family planning is a absolute necessity for the fundamental interests of China as a nation and as a people. Technical personnel and scientific theorists should be trained and organized in order that their work may satisfy the needs of China's reality. Family planning work should also be handled according to China's current situation.

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Inductive Game Theory and the Dynamics of Animal Conflict

PubMed Central

DeDeo, Simon; Krakauer, David C.; Flack, Jessica C.

2010-01-01

Conflict destabilizes social interactions and impedes cooperation at multiple scales of biological organization. Of fundamental interest are the causes of turbulent periods of conflict. We analyze conflict dynamics in an monkey society model system. We develop a technique, Inductive Game Theory, to extract directly from time-series data the decision-making strategies used by individuals and groups. This technique uses Monte Carlo simulation to test alternative causal models of conflict dynamics. We find individuals base their decision to fight on memory of social factors, not on short timescale ecological resource competition. Furthermore, the social assessments on which these decisions are based are triadic (self in relation to another pair of individuals), not pairwise. We show that this triadic decision making causes long conflict cascades and that there is a high population cost of the large fights associated with these cascades. These results suggest that individual agency has been over-emphasized in the social evolution of complex aggregates, and that pair-wise formalisms are inadequate. An appreciation of the empirical foundations of the collective dynamics of conflict is a crucial step towards its effective management. PMID:20485557

Inductive game theory and the dynamics of animal conflict.

PubMed

DeDeo, Simon; Krakauer, David C; Flack, Jessica C

2010-05-13

Conflict destabilizes social interactions and impedes cooperation at multiple scales of biological organization. Of fundamental interest are the causes of turbulent periods of conflict. We analyze conflict dynamics in an monkey society model system. We develop a technique, Inductive Game Theory, to extract directly from time-series data the decision-making strategies used by individuals and groups. This technique uses Monte Carlo simulation to test alternative causal models of conflict dynamics. We find individuals base their decision to fight on memory of social factors, not on short timescale ecological resource competition. Furthermore, the social assessments on which these decisions are based are triadic (self in relation to another pair of individuals), not pairwise. We show that this triadic decision making causes long conflict cascades and that there is a high population cost of the large fights associated with these cascades. These results suggest that individual agency has been over-emphasized in the social evolution of complex aggregates, and that pair-wise formalisms are inadequate. An appreciation of the empirical foundations of the collective dynamics of conflict is a crucial step towards its effective management.

Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

2012-01-01

The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

Molecular Dynamics of Dense Fluids: Simulation-Theory Symbiosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yip, Sidney

35 years ago Berni J. Alder showed the Boltzmann-Enskog kinetic theory failed to adequately account for the viscosity of fluids near solid density as determined by molecular dynamics simulation. This work, along with other notable simulation findings, provided great stimulus to the statistical mechanical studies of transport phenomena, particularly in dealing with collective effects in the time correlation functions of liquids. An extended theoretical challenge that remains partially resolved at best is the shear viscosity of supercooled liquids. How can one give a unified explanation of the so-called fragile and strong characteristic temperature behavior, with implications for the dynamics of glass transition? In this tribute on the occasion of his 90th birthday symposium, we recount a recent study where simulation, combined with heuristic (transition-state) and first principles (linear response) theories, identifies the molecular mechanisms governing glassy-state relaxation. Such an interplay between simulation and theory is progress from the early days; instead of simulation challenging theory, now simulation and theory complement each other.

A Dynamic Interactive Theory of Person Construal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeman, Jonathan B.; Ambady, Nalini

2011-01-01

A dynamic interactive theory of person construal is proposed. It assumes that the perception of other people is accomplished by a dynamical system involving continuous interaction between social categories, stereotypes, high-level cognitive states, and the low-level processing of facial, vocal, and bodily cues. This system permits lower-level…

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

Theory of activated glassy dynamics in randomly pinned fluids.

PubMed

Phan, Anh D; Schweizer, Kenneth S

2018-02-07

We generalize the force-level, microscopic, Nonlinear Langevin Equation (NLE) theory and its elastically collective generalization [elastically collective nonlinear Langevin equation (ECNLE) theory] of activated dynamics in bulk spherical particle liquids to address the influence of random particle pinning on structural relaxation. The simplest neutral confinement model is analyzed for hard spheres where there is no change of the equilibrium pair structure upon particle pinning. As the pinned fraction grows, cage scale dynamical constraints are intensified in a manner that increases with density. This results in the mobile particles becoming more transiently localized, with increases of the jump distance, cage scale barrier, and NLE theory mean hopping time; subtle changes of the dynamic shear modulus are predicted. The results are contrasted with recent simulations. Similarities in relaxation behavior are identified in the dynamic precursor regime, including a roughly exponential, or weakly supra-exponential, growth of the alpha time with pinning fraction and a reduction of dynamic fragility. However, the increase of the alpha time with pinning predicted by the local NLE theory is too small and severely so at very high volume fractions. The strong deviations are argued to be due to the longer range collective elasticity aspect of the problem which is expected to be modified by random pinning in a complex manner. A qualitative physical scenario is offered for how the three distinct aspects that quantify the elastic barrier may change with pinning. ECNLE theory calculations of the alpha time are then presented based on the simplest effective-medium-like treatment for how random pinning modifies the elastic barrier. The results appear to be consistent with most, but not all, trends seen in recent simulations. Key open problems are discussed with regard to both theory and simulation.

Theory of activated glassy dynamics in randomly pinned fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phan, Anh D.; Schweizer, Kenneth S.

2018-02-01

We generalize the force-level, microscopic, Nonlinear Langevin Equation (NLE) theory and its elastically collective generalization [elastically collective nonlinear Langevin equation (ECNLE) theory] of activated dynamics in bulk spherical particle liquids to address the influence of random particle pinning on structural relaxation. The simplest neutral confinement model is analyzed for hard spheres where there is no change of the equilibrium pair structure upon particle pinning. As the pinned fraction grows, cage scale dynamical constraints are intensified in a manner that increases with density. This results in the mobile particles becoming more transiently localized, with increases of the jump distance, cage scale barrier, and NLE theory mean hopping time; subtle changes of the dynamic shear modulus are predicted. The results are contrasted with recent simulations. Similarities in relaxation behavior are identified in the dynamic precursor regime, including a roughly exponential, or weakly supra-exponential, growth of the alpha time with pinning fraction and a reduction of dynamic fragility. However, the increase of the alpha time with pinning predicted by the local NLE theory is too small and severely so at very high volume fractions. The strong deviations are argued to be due to the longer range collective elasticity aspect of the problem which is expected to be modified by random pinning in a complex manner. A qualitative physical scenario is offered for how the three distinct aspects that quantify the elastic barrier may change with pinning. ECNLE theory calculations of the alpha time are then presented based on the simplest effective-medium-like treatment for how random pinning modifies the elastic barrier. The results appear to be consistent with most, but not all, trends seen in recent simulations. Key open problems are discussed with regard to both theory and simulation.

Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2013-03-21

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic equilibrium of reconstituting hematopoietic stem cell populations.

PubMed

O'Quigley, John

2010-12-01

Clonal dominance in hematopoietic stem cell populations is an important question of interest but not one we can directly answer. Any estimates are based on indirect measurement. For marked populations, we can equate empirical and theoretical moments for binomial sampling, in particular we can use the well-known formula for the sampling variation of a binomial proportion. The empirical variance itself cannot always be reliably estimated and some caution is needed. We describe the difficulties here and identify ready solutions which only require appropriate use of variance-stabilizing transformations. From these we obtain estimators for the steady state, or dynamic equilibrium, of the number of hematopoietic stem cells involved in repopulating the marrow. The calculations themselves are not too involved. We give the distribution theory for the estimator as well as simple approximations for practical application. As an illustration, we rework on data recently gathered to address the question as to whether or not reconstitution of marrow grafts in the clinical setting might be considered to be oligoclonal.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Processes on the emergent landscapes of biochemical reaction networks and heterogeneous cell population dynamics: differentiation in living matters

PubMed Central

Li, Fangting

2017-01-01

The notion of an attractor has been widely employed in thinking about the nonlinear dynamics of organisms and biological phenomena as systems and as processes. The notion of a landscape with valleys and mountains encoding multiple attractors, however, has a rigorous foundation only for closed, thermodynamically non-driven, chemical systems, such as a protein. Recent advances in the theory of nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems and its applications to mesoscopic reaction networks, one reaction at a time, have provided a new basis for a landscape of open, driven biochemical reaction systems under sustained chemostat. The theory is equally applicable not only to intracellular dynamics of biochemical regulatory networks within an individual cell but also to tissue dynamics of heterogeneous interacting cell populations. The landscape for an individual cell, applicable to a population of isogenic non-interacting cells under the same environmental conditions, is defined on the counting space of intracellular chemical compositions x = (x1,x2, … ,xN) in a cell, where xℓ is the concentration of the ℓth biochemical species. Equivalently, for heterogeneous cell population dynamics xℓ is the number density of cells of the ℓth cell type. One of the insights derived from the landscape perspective is that the life history of an individual organism, which occurs on the hillsides of a landscape, is nearly deterministic and ‘programmed’, while population-wise an asynchronous non-equilibrium steady state resides mostly in the lowlands of the landscape. We argue that a dynamic ‘blue-sky’ bifurcation, as a representation of Waddington's landscape, is a more robust mechanism for a cell fate decision and subsequent differentiation than the widely pictured pitch-fork bifurcation. We revisit, in terms of the chemostatic driving forces upon active, living matter, the notions of near-equilibrium thermodynamic branches versus far-from-equilibrium states. The emergent

Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

1989-01-01

There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

PubMed

Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

2016-02-01

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

Theory's role in shaping behavioral health research for population health.

PubMed

King, Abby C

2015-11-26

The careful application of theory often is used in the behavioral health field to enhance our understanding of how the world currently works. But theory also can help us visualize what the world can become, particularly through its potential impacts on population-wide health. Applying a multi-level ecological perspective can help in expanding the field's focus upward toward the population at large. While ecological frameworks have become increasingly popular, arguably such perspectives have fallen short of their potential to actively bridge conceptual constructs and, by extension, intervention approaches, across different levels of population impact. Theoretical and conceptual perspectives that explicitly span levels of impact offer arguably the greatest potential for achieving scientific insights that may in turn produce the largest population health effects. Examples of such "bridging" approaches include theories and models that span behavioral + micro-environment, behavioral + social/cultural, and social + physical environment constructs. Several recommendations are presented related to opportunities for leveraging theories to attain the greatest impact in the population health science field. These include applying the evidence obtained from person-level theories to inform methods for positively impacting the behaviors of community gatekeepers and decision-makers for greater population change and reach; leveraging the potential of residents as "citizen scientists"--a resource for enacting behavioral health changes at the individual, environmental, and policy levels; using empirical observations and theory in equal parts to build more robust, relevant, and solution-oriented behavior change programs; exploring moderators and mediators of change at levels of impact that go beyond the individual; and considering the circumstances in which applying conceptual methods that embrace a "complexity" as opposed to "causality" perspective may lead to more

Electron theory of fast and ultrafast dissipative magnetization dynamics.

PubMed

Fähnle, M; Illg, C

2011-12-14

For metallic magnets we review the experimental and electron-theoretical investigations of fast magnetization dynamics (on a timescale of ns to 100 ps) and of laser-pulse-induced ultrafast dynamics (few hundred fs). It is argued that for both situations the dominant contributions to the dissipative part of the dynamics arise from the excitation of electron-hole pairs and from the subsequent relaxation of these pairs by spin-dependent scattering processes, which transfer angular momentum to the lattice. By effective field theories (generalized breathing and bubbling Fermi-surface models) it is shown that the Gilbert equation of motion, which is often used to describe the fast dissipative magnetization dynamics, must be extended in several aspects. The basic assumptions of the Elliott-Yafet theory, which is often used to describe the ultrafast spin relaxation after laser-pulse irradiation, are discussed very critically. However, it is shown that for Ni this theory probably yields a value for the spin-relaxation time T(1) in good agreement with the experimental value. A relation between the quantity α characterizing the damping of the fast dynamics in simple situations and the time T(1) is derived. © 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

Treesearch

M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

1991-01-01

Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

Topics in geophysical fluid dynamics: Atmospheric dynamics, dynamo theory, and climate dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Childress, S.

1987-01-01

This text is the first study to apply systematically the successive bifurcations approach to complex time-dependent processes in large scale atmospheric dynamics, geomagnetism, and theoretical climate dynamics. The presentation of recent results on planetary-scale phenomena in the earth's atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, mantle and core provides an integral account of mathematical theory and methods together with physical phenomena and processes. The authors address a number of problems in rapidly developing areas of geophysics, bringing into closer contact the modern tools of nonlinear mathematics and the novel problems of global change in the environment.

Dynamics of essential collective motions in proteins: Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanova, Maria

2007-11-01

A general theoretical background is introduced for characterization of conformational motions in protein molecules, and for building reduced coarse-grained models of proteins, based on the statistical analysis of their phase trajectories. Using the projection operator technique, a system of coupled generalized Langevin equations is derived for essential collective coordinates, which are generated by principal component analysis of molecular dynamic trajectories. The number of essential degrees of freedom is not limited in the theory. An explicit analytic relation is established between the generalized Langevin equation for essential collective coordinates and that for the all-atom phase trajectory projected onto the subspace of essential collective degrees of freedom. The theory introduced is applied to identify correlated dynamic domains in a macromolecule and to construct coarse-grained models representing the conformational motions in a protein through a few interacting domains embedded in a dissipative medium. A rigorous theoretical background is provided for identification of dynamic correlated domains in a macromolecule. Examples of domain identification in protein G are given and employed to interpret NMR experiments. Challenges and potential outcomes of the theory are discussed.

Application of dynamical systems theory to nonlinear aircraft dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Culick, Fred E. C.; Jahnke, Craig C.

1988-01-01

Dynamical systems theory has been used to study nonlinear aircraft dynamics. A six degree of freedom model that neglects gravity has been analyzed. The aerodynamic model, supplied by NASA, is for a generic swept wing fighter and includes nonlinearities as functions of the angle of attack. A continuation method was used to calculate the steady states of the aircraft, and bifurcations of these steady states, as functions of the control deflections. Bifurcations were used to predict jump phenomena and the onset of periodic motion for roll coupling instabilities and high angle of attack maneuvers. The predictions were verified with numerical simulations.

Application of wave mechanics theory to fluid dynamics problems: Fundamentals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krzywoblocki, M. Z. V.

1974-01-01

The application of the basic formalistic elements of wave mechanics theory is discussed. The theory is used to describe the physical phenomena on the microscopic level, the fluid dynamics of gases and liquids, and the analysis of physical phenomena on the macroscopic (visually observable) level. The practical advantages of relating the two fields of wave mechanics and fluid mechanics through the use of the Schroedinger equation constitute the approach to this relationship. Some of the subjects include: (1) fundamental aspects of wave mechanics theory, (2) laminarity of flow, (3) velocity potential, (4) disturbances in fluids, (5) introductory elements of the bifurcation theory, and (6) physiological aspects in fluid dynamics.

Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

PubMed Central

Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

2014-01-01

Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

2017-07-07

We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

How Stuttering Develops: The Multifactorial Dynamic Pathways Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Anne; Weber, Christine

2017-01-01

Purpose: We advanced a multifactorial, dynamic account of the complex, nonlinear interactions of motor, linguistic, and emotional factors contributing to the development of stuttering. Our purpose here is to update our account as the multifactorial dynamic pathways theory. Method: We review evidence related to how stuttering develops, including…

Population and Environment

PubMed Central

de Sherbinin, Alex; Carr, David; Cassels, Susan; Jiang, Leiwen

2009-01-01

The interactions between human population dynamics and the environment have often been viewed mechanistically. This review elucidates the complexities and contextual specificities of population-environment relationships in a number of domains. It explores the ways in which demographers and other social scientists have sought to understand the relationships among a full range of population dynamics (e.g., population size, growth, density, age and sex composition, migration, urbanization, vital rates) and environmental changes. The chapter briefly reviews a number of the theories for understanding population and the environment and then proceeds to provide a state-of-the-art review of studies that have examined population dynamics and their relationship to five environmental issue areas. The review concludes by relating population-environment research to emerging work on human-environment systems. PMID:20011237

An information theory framework for dynamic functional domain connectivity.

PubMed

Vergara, Victor M; Miller, Robyn; Calhoun, Vince

2017-06-01

Dynamic functional network connectivity (dFNC) analyzes time evolution of coherent activity in the brain. In this technique dynamic changes are considered for the whole brain. This paper proposes an information theory framework to measure information flowing among subsets of functional networks call functional domains. Our method aims at estimating bits of information contained and shared among domains. The succession of dynamic functional states is estimated at the domain level. Information quantity is based on the probabilities of observing each dynamic state. Mutual information measurement is then obtained from probabilities across domains. Thus, we named this value the cross domain mutual information (CDMI). Strong CDMIs were observed in relation to the subcortical domain. Domains related to sensorial input, motor control and cerebellum form another CDMI cluster. Information flow among other domains was seldom found. Other methods of dynamic connectivity focus on whole brain dFNC matrices. In the current framework, information theory is applied to states estimated from pairs of multi-network functional domains. In this context, we apply information theory to measure information flow across functional domains. Identified CDMI clusters point to known information pathways in the basal ganglia and also among areas of sensorial input, patterns found in static functional connectivity. In contrast, CDMI across brain areas of higher level cognitive processing follow a different pattern that indicates scarce information sharing. These findings show that employing information theory to formally measured information flow through brain domains reveals additional features of functional connectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Portfolio theory as a management tool to guide conservation and restoration of multi-stock fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

DuFour, Mark R.; May, Cassandra J.; Roseman, Edward F.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Pritt, Jeremy J.; Fraker, Michael E.; Davis, Jeremiah J.; Tyson, Jeffery T.; Miner, Jeffery G.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Mayer, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Habitat degradation and harvest have upset the natural buffering mechanism (i.e., portfolio effects) of many large-scale multi-stock fisheries by reducing spawning stock diversity that is vital for generating population stability and resilience. The application of portfolio theory offers a means to guide management activities by quantifying the importance of multi-stock dynamics and suggesting conservation and restoration strategies to improve naturally occurring portfolio effects. Our application of portfolio theory to Lake Erie Sander vitreus (walleye), a large population that is supported by riverine and open-lake reef spawning stocks, has shown that portfolio effects generated by annual inter-stock larval fish production are currently suboptimal when compared to potential buffering capacity. Reduced production from riverine stocks has resulted in a single open-lake reef stock dominating larval production, and in turn, high inter-annual recruitment variability during recent years. Our analyses have shown (1) a weak average correlation between annual river and reef larval production (ρ̄ = 0.24), suggesting that a natural buffering capacity exists in the population, and (2) expanded annual production of larvae (potential recruits) from riverine stocks could stabilize the fishery by dampening inter-annual recruitment variation. Ultimately, our results demonstrate how portfolio theory can be used to quantify the importance of spawning stock diversity and guide management on ecologically relevant scales (i.e., spawning stocks) leading to greater stability and resilience of multi-stock populations and fisheries.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

A guide and glossary on postpositivist theory building for population health

PubMed Central

Carpiano, Richard M; Daley, Dorothy M

2006-01-01

This guide and glossary focuses on the role of theory and conceptual models within population health research. Upon discussing the critical need for theory in conducting interdisciplinary research, it provides strategies for crafting theories that can be empirically tested and a glossary of theory building terms that are useful for guiding research. In addition to general concepts, the glossary includes some terminology commonly found in the social sciences, whose well established traditions and practices of formal theory building may be particularly informative for epidemiologists and other population health researchers who have minimal formal social science training, but study social factors in their research. PMID:16790824

The escalatory Red Queen: Population extinction and replacement following arms race dynamics in poplar rust.

PubMed

Persoons, Antoine; Hayden, Katherine J; Fabre, Bénédicte; Frey, Pascal; De Mita, Stéphane; Tellier, Aurélien; Halkett, Fabien

2017-04-01

Host-parasite systems provide convincing examples of Red Queen co-evolutionary dynamics. Yet, a key process underscored in Van Valen's theory - that arms race dynamics can result in extinction - has never been documented. One reason for this may be that most sampling designs lack the breadth needed to illuminate the rapid pace of adaptation by pathogen populations. In this study, we used a 25-year temporal sampling to decipher the demographic history of a plant pathogen: the poplar rust fungus, Melampsora larici-populina. A major adaptive event occurred in 1994 with the breakdown of R7 resistance carried by several poplar cultivars widely planted in Western Europe since 1982. The corresponding virulence rapidly spread in M. larici-populina populations and nearly reached fixation in northern France, even on susceptible hosts. Using both temporal records of virulence profiles and temporal population genetic data, our analyses revealed that (i) R7 resistance breakdown resulted in the emergence of a unique and homogeneous genetic group, the so-called cultivated population, which predominated in northern France for about 20 years, (ii) selection for Vir7 individuals brought with it multiple other virulence types via hitchhiking, resulting in an overall increase in the population-wide number of virulence types and (iii) - above all - the emergence of the cultivated population superseded the initial population which predominated at the same place before R7 resistance breakdown. Our temporal analysis illustrates how antagonistic co-evolution can lead to population extinction and replacement, hence providing direct evidence for the escalation process which is at the core of Red Queen dynamics. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

Can theory predict the process of suicide on entry to prison? Predicting dynamic risk factors for suicide ideation in a high-risk prison population.

PubMed

Slade, Karen; Edelman, Robert

2014-01-01

Each year approximately 110,000 people are imprisoned in England and Wales and new prisoners remain one of the highest risk groups for suicide across the world. The reduction of suicide in prisoners remains difficult as assessments and interventions tend to rely on static risk factors with few theoretical or integrated models yet evaluated. To identify the dynamic factors that contribute to suicide ideation in this population based on Williams and Pollock's (2001) Cry of Pain (CoP) model. New arrivals (N = 198) into prison were asked to complete measures derived from the CoP model plus clinical and prison-specific factors. It was hypothesized that the factors of the CoP model would be predictive of suicide ideation. Support was provided for the defeat and entrapment aspects of the CoP model with previous self-harm, repeated times in prison, and suicide-permissive cognitions also key in predicting suicide ideation for prisoners on entry to prison. An integrated and dynamic model was developed that has utility in predicting suicide in early-stage prisoners. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed along with recommendations for future research.

Effective model hierarchies for dynamic and static classical density functional theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majaniemi, S.; Provatas, N.; Nonomura, M.

2010-09-01

The origin and methodology of deriving effective model hierarchies are presented with applications to solidification of crystalline solids. In particular, it is discussed how the form of the equations of motion and the effective parameters on larger scales can be obtained from the more microscopic models. It will be shown that tying together the dynamic structure of the projection operator formalism with static classical density functional theories can lead to incomplete (mass) transport properties even though the linearized hydrodynamics on large scales is correctly reproduced. To facilitate a more natural way of binding together the dynamics of the macrovariables and classical density functional theory, a dynamic generalization of density functional theory based on the nonequilibrium generating functional is suggested.

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

Population dynamics in non-homogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alards, Kim M. J.; Tesser, Francesca; Toschi, Federico

2014-11-01

For organisms living in aquatic ecosystems the presence of fluid transport can have a strong influence on the dynamics of populations and on evolution of species. In particular, displacements due to self-propulsion, summed up with turbulent dispersion at larger scales, strongly influence the local densities and thus population and genetic dynamics. Real marine environments are furthermore characterized by a high degree of non-homogeneities. In the case of population fronts propagating in ``fast'' turbulence, with respect to the population duplication time, the flow effect can be studied by replacing the microscopic diffusivity with an effective turbulent diffusivity. In the opposite case of ``slow'' turbulence the advection by the flow has to be considered locally. Here we employ numerical simulations to study the influence of non-homogeneities in the diffusion coefficient of reacting individuals of different species expanding in a 2 dimensional space. Moreover, to explore the influence of advection, we consider a population expanding in the presence of simple velocity fields like cellular flows. The output is analyzed in terms of front roughness, front shape, propagation speed and, concerning the genetics, by means of heterozygosity and local and global extinction probabilities.

Interplay between population firing stability and single neuron dynamics in hippocampal networks

PubMed Central

Slomowitz, Edden; Styr, Boaz; Vertkin, Irena; Milshtein-Parush, Hila; Nelken, Israel; Slutsky, Michael; Slutsky, Inna

2015-01-01

Neuronal circuits' ability to maintain the delicate balance between stability and flexibility in changing environments is critical for normal neuronal functioning. However, to what extent individual neurons and neuronal populations maintain internal firing properties remains largely unknown. In this study, we show that distributions of spontaneous population firing rates and synchrony are subject to accurate homeostatic control following increase of synaptic inhibition in cultured hippocampal networks. Reduction in firing rate triggered synaptic and intrinsic adaptive responses operating as global homeostatic mechanisms to maintain firing macro-stability, without achieving local homeostasis at the single-neuron level. Adaptive mechanisms, while stabilizing population firing properties, reduced short-term facilitation essential for synaptic discrimination of input patterns. Thus, invariant ongoing population dynamics emerge from intrinsically unstable activity patterns of individual neurons and synapses. The observed differences in the precision of homeostatic control at different spatial scales challenge cell-autonomous theory of network homeostasis and suggest the existence of network-wide regulation rules. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04378.001 PMID:25556699

A theory of neural dimensionality, dynamics, and measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, Surya

In many experiments, neuroscientists tightly control behavior, record many trials, and obtain trial-averaged firing rates from hundreds of neurons in circuits containing millions of behaviorally relevant neurons. Dimensionality reduction has often shown that such datasets are strikingly simple; they can be described using a much smaller number of dimensions than the number of recorded neurons, and the resulting projections onto these dimensions yield a remarkably insightful dynamical portrait of circuit computation. This ubiquitous simplicity raises several profound and timely conceptual questions. What is the origin of this simplicity and its implications for the complexity of brain dynamics? Would neuronal datasets become more complex if we recorded more neurons? How and when can we trust dynamical portraits obtained from only hundreds of neurons in circuits containing millions of neurons? We present a theory that answers these questions, and test it using neural data recorded from reaching monkeys. Overall, this theory yields a picture of the neural measurement process as a random projection of neural dynamics, conceptual insights into how we can reliably recover dynamical portraits in such under-sampled measurement regimes, and quantitative guidelines for the design of future experiments. Moreover, it reveals the existence of phase transition boundaries in our ability to successfully decode cognition and behavior as a function of the number of recorded neurons, the complexity of the task, and the smoothness of neural dynamics. membership pending.

The puzzle of partial migration: Adaptive dynamics and evolutionary game theory perspectives.

PubMed

De Leenheer, Patrick; Mohapatra, Anushaya; Ohms, Haley A; Lytle, David A; Cushing, J M

2017-01-07

We consider the phenomenon of partial migration which is exhibited by populations in which some individuals migrate between habitats during their lifetime, but others do not. First, using an adaptive dynamics approach, we show that partial migration can be explained on the basis of negative density dependence in the per capita fertilities alone, provided that this density dependence is attenuated for increasing abundances of the subtypes that make up the population. We present an exact formula for the optimal proportion of migrants which is expressed in terms of the vital rates of migrant and non-migrant subtypes only. We show that this allocation strategy is both an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) as well as a convergence stable strategy (CSS). To establish the former, we generalize the classical notion of an ESS because it is based on invasion exponents obtained from linearization arguments, which fail to capture the stabilizing effects of the nonlinear density dependence. These results clarify precisely when the notion of a "weak ESS", as proposed in Lundberg (2013) for a related model, is a genuine ESS. Secondly, we use an evolutionary game theory approach, and confirm, once again, that partial migration can be attributed to negative density dependence alone. In this context, the result holds even when density dependence is not attenuated. In this case, the optimal allocation strategy towards migrants is the same as the ESS stemming from the analysis based on the adaptive dynamics. The key feature of the population models considered here is that they are monotone dynamical systems, which enables a rather comprehensive mathematical analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. I. Theory and Markov models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindner, Benjamin; Yi, Zheng; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Smith, Jeremy C.; Noé, Frank

2013-11-01

The dynamics of complex molecules can be directly probed by inelastic neutron scattering experiments. However, many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales, which makes it difficult to assign processes seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements. Here, we show how Markov models can be used to connect structural changes observed in molecular dynamics simulation directly to the relaxation processes probed by scattering experiments. For this, a conformational dynamics theory of dynamical neutron and X-ray scattering is developed, following our previous approach for computing dynamical fingerprints of time-correlation functions [F. Noé, S. Doose, I. Daidone, M. Löllmann, J. Chodera, M. Sauer, and J. Smith, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108, 4822 (2011)]. Markov modeling is used to approximate the relaxation processes and timescales of the molecule via the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a transition matrix between conformational substates. This procedure allows the establishment of a complete set of exponential decay functions and a full decomposition into the individual contributions, i.e., the contribution of every atom and dynamical process to each experimental relaxation process.

From theory to experimental design-Quantifying a trait-based theory of predator-prey dynamics.

PubMed

Laubmeier, A N; Wootton, Kate; Banks, J E; Bommarco, Riccardo; Curtsdotter, Alva; Jonsson, Tomas; Roslin, Tomas; Banks, H T

2018-01-01

Successfully applying theoretical models to natural communities and predicting ecosystem behavior under changing conditions is the backbone of predictive ecology. However, the experiments required to test these models are dictated by practical constraints, and models are often opportunistically validated against data for which they were never intended. Alternatively, we can inform and improve experimental design by an in-depth pre-experimental analysis of the model, generating experiments better targeted at testing the validity of a theory. Here, we describe this process for a specific experiment. Starting from food web ecological theory, we formulate a model and design an experiment to optimally test the validity of the theory, supplementing traditional design considerations with model analysis. The experiment itself will be run and described in a separate paper. The theory we test is that trophic population dynamics are dictated by species traits, and we study this in a community of terrestrial arthropods. We depart from the Allometric Trophic Network (ATN) model and hypothesize that including habitat use, in addition to body mass, is necessary to better model trophic interactions. We therefore formulate new terms which account for micro-habitat use as well as intra- and interspecific interference in the ATN model. We design an experiment and an effective sampling regime to test this model and the underlying assumptions about the traits dominating trophic interactions. We arrive at a detailed sampling protocol to maximize information content in the empirical data obtained from the experiment and, relying on theoretical analysis of the proposed model, explore potential shortcomings of our design. Consequently, since this is a "pre-experimental" exercise aimed at improving the links between hypothesis formulation, model construction, experimental design and data collection, we hasten to publish our findings before analyzing data from the actual experiment, thus

A guide and glossary on post-positivist theory building for population health.

PubMed

Carpiano, R M; Daley, Dorothy M

2006-07-01

This guide and glossary focuses on the role of theory and conceptual models within population health research. Upon discussing the critical need for theory in conducting interdisciplinary research, it provides strategies for crafting theories that can be empirically tested and a glossary of theory building terms that are useful for guiding research. In addition to general concepts, the glossary includes some terminology commonly found in the social sciences, whose well established traditions and practices of formal theory building may be particularly informative for epidemiologists and other population health researchers who have minimal formal social science training, but study social factors in their research.

Falsification of matching theory and confirmation of an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics in a critical experiment.

PubMed

McDowell, J J; Calvin, Olivia L; Hackett, Ryan; Klapes, Bryan

2017-07-01

Two competing predictions of matching theory and an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics, and one additional prediction of the evolutionary theory, were tested in a critical experiment in which human participants worked on concurrent schedules for money (Dallery et al., 2005). The three predictions concerned the descriptive adequacy of matching theory equations, and of equations describing emergent equilibria of the evolutionary theory. Tests of the predictions falsified matching theory and supported the evolutionary theory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing

PubMed Central

Shapiro, Arthur M.

2017-01-01

A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750 m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna. PMID:28791146

Quorum-Sensing Synchronization of Synthetic Toggle Switches: A Design Based on Monotone Dynamical Systems Theory

PubMed Central

Nikolaev, Evgeni V.

2016-01-01

Synthetic constructs in biotechnology, biocomputing, and modern gene therapy interventions are often based on plasmids or transfected circuits which implement some form of “on-off” switch. For example, the expression of a protein used for therapeutic purposes might be triggered by the recognition of a specific combination of inducers (e.g., antigens), and memory of this event should be maintained across a cell population until a specific stimulus commands a coordinated shut-off. The robustness of such a design is hampered by molecular (“intrinsic”) or environmental (“extrinsic”) noise, which may lead to spontaneous changes of state in a subset of the population and is reflected in the bimodality of protein expression, as measured for example using flow cytometry. In this context, a “majority-vote” correction circuit, which brings deviant cells back into the required state, is highly desirable, and quorum-sensing has been suggested as a way for cells to broadcast their states to the population as a whole so as to facilitate consensus. In this paper, we propose what we believe is the first such a design that has mathematically guaranteed properties of stability and auto-correction under certain conditions. Our approach is guided by concepts and theory from the field of “monotone” dynamical systems developed by M. Hirsch, H. Smith, and others. We benchmark our design by comparing it to an existing design which has been the subject of experimental and theoretical studies, illustrating its superiority in stability and self-correction of synchronization errors. Our stability analysis, based on dynamical systems theory, guarantees global convergence to steady states, ruling out unpredictable (“chaotic”) behaviors and even sustained oscillations in the limit of convergence. These results are valid no matter what are the values of parameters, and are based only on the wiring diagram. The theory is complemented by extensive computational bifurcation

Statistical Physics of Population Genetics in the Low Population Size Limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwal, Gurinder

The understanding of evolutionary processes lends itself naturally to theory and computation, and the entire field of population genetics has benefited greatly from the influx of methods from applied mathematics for decades. However, in spite of all this effort, there are a number of key dynamical models of evolution that have resisted analytical treatment. In addition, modern DNA sequencing technologies have magnified the amount of genetic data available, revealing an excess of rare genetic variants in human genomes, challenging the predictions of conventional theory. Here I will show that methods from statistical physics can be used to model the distribution of genetic variants, incorporating selection and spatial degrees of freedom. In particular, a functional path-integral formulation of the Wright-Fisher process maps exactly to the dynamics of a particle in an effective potential, beyond the mean field approximation. In the small population size limit, the dynamics are dominated by instanton-like solutions which determine the probability of fixation in short timescales. These results are directly relevant for understanding the unusual genetic variant distribution at moving frontiers of populations.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1985-01-01

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Behavioral variability in an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics.

PubMed

Popa, Andrei; McDowell, J J

2016-03-01

McDowell's evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics (McDowell, 2004) instantiates populations of behaviors (abstractly represented by integers) that evolve under the selection pressure of the environment in the form of positive reinforcement. Each generation gives rise to the next via low-level Darwinian processes of selection, recombination, and mutation. The emergent patterns can be analyzed and compared to those produced by biological organisms. The purpose of this project was to explore the effects of high mutation rates on behavioral variability in environments that arranged different reinforcer rates and magnitudes. Behavioral variability increased with the rate of mutation. High reinforcer rates and magnitudes reduced these effects; low reinforcer rates and magnitudes augmented them. These results are in agreement with live-organism research on behavioral variability. Various combinations of mutation rates, reinforcer rates, and reinforcer magnitudes produced similar high-level outcomes (equifinality). These findings suggest that the independent variables that describe an experimental condition interact; that is, they do not influence behavior independently. These conclusions have implications for the interpretation of high levels of variability, mathematical undermatching, and the matching theory. The last part of the discussion centers on a potential biological counterpart for the rate of mutation, namely spontaneous fluctuations in the brain's default mode network. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Microscopic theory for dynamics in entangled polymer nanocomposites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Umi

New microscopic theories for describing dynamics in polymer nanocomposites are developed and applied. The problem is addressed from two distinct perspectives and using two different theoretical approaches. The first half of this dissertation studies the long-time and intermediate-time dynamics of nanoparticles in entangled and unentangled polymer melts for dilute particle concentrations. Using a combination of mode-coupling, Brownian motion, and polymer physics ideas, the nanoparticle long-time diffusion coefficients is formulated in terms of multiple length-scales, packing microstructures, and spatially-resolved polymer density fluctuation dynamics. The key motional mechanism is described via the parallel relaxation of the force exerted on the particle controlled by collective polymer constraint-release and the particle self-motion. A sharp but smooth crossover from the hydrodynamic to the non-hydrodynamic regime is predicted based on the Stokes-Einstein violation ratio as a function of all the system variables. Quantitative predictions are made for the recovery of the Stokes-Einstein law, and the diffusivity in the crossover regime agrees surprisingly well with large-scale molecular dynamics simulations for all particle sizes and chain lengths studied. The approach is also extended to address intermediate-time anomalous transport of a single nanoparticle and two-particle relative diffusion. The second half of this dissertation focuses on developing a novel dynamical theory for a liquid of infinitely-thin rods in the presence of hard spherical obstacles, aiming at a technical and conceptual extension of the existing paradigm for entangled polymer dynamics. As a fundamental theoretical development, the two-component generalization of a first-principles dynamic meanfield approach is presented. The theory enforces inter-needle topological uncrossability and needlesphere impenetrability in a unified manner, leading to a generalized theory of entanglements that

Sierra Structural Dynamics Theory Manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reese, Garth M.

Sierra/SD provides a massively parallel implementation of structural dynamics finite element analysis, required for high fidelity, validated models used in modal, vibration, static and shock analysis of structural systems. This manual describes the theory behind many of the constructs in Sierra/SD. For a more detailed description of how to use Sierra/SD , we refer the reader to Sierra/SD, User's Notes . Many of the constructs in Sierra/SD are pulled directly from published material. Where possible, these materials are referenced herein. However, certain functions in Sierra/SD are specific to our implementation. We try to be far more complete in those areas.more » The theory manual was developed from several sources including general notes, a programmer notes manual, the user's notes and of course the material in the open literature. This page intentionally left blank.« less

Raman Optical Activity Spectra from Density Functional Perturbation Theory and Density-Functional-Theory-Based Molecular Dynamics.

PubMed

Luber, Sandra

2017-03-14

We describe the calculation of Raman optical activity (ROA) tensors from density functional perturbation theory, which has been implemented into the CP2K software package. Using the mixed Gaussian and plane waves method, ROA spectra are evaluated in the double-harmonic approximation. Moreover, an approach for the calculation of ROA spectra by means of density functional theory-based molecular dynamics is derived and used to obtain an ROA spectrum via time correlation functions, which paves the way for the calculation of ROA spectra taking into account anharmonicities and dynamic effects at ambient conditions.

Dynamics of film. [two dimensional continua theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, M.

1979-01-01

The general theory of films as two-dimensional continua are elaborated upon. As physical realizations of such a model this paper examines: inextensible films, elastic films, and nets. The suggested dynamic equations have enabled us to find out the characteristic speeds of wave propagation of the invariants of external and internal geometry and formulate the criteria of instability of their shape. Also included herein is a detailed account of the equation describing the film motions beyond the limits of the shape stability accompanied by the formation of wrinkles. The theory is illustrated by examples.

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior

PubMed Central

Pananos, A. Demetri; Bury, Thomas M.; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P.; Nyhan, Brendan; Bauch, Chris T.

2017-01-01

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena—special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles–mumps–rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014–2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior–disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing “critical speeding up” whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. PMID:29229821

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Remodelling core group theory: the role of sustaining populations in HIV transmission.

PubMed

Watts, Charlotte; Zimmerman, Cathy; Foss, Anna M; Hossain, Mazeda; Cox, Andrew; Vickerman, Peter

2010-12-01

Core group theory describes the central role of groups with high rates of sexual partner change in HIV transmission. Research illustrates the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of commercial sex, and that some men involved in the organisation or policing of sex work regularly have sex with sex workers. These findings are used to explore gaps in core group theory. Evidence from developing countries on the duration that women sell and men buy sex was reviewed. Simple compartmental dynamic models were used to derive analytical expressions for the relative HIV equilibrium levels among sex workers and partners, incorporating partner change rates and duration in commercial sex settings. Simulations explored the degree to which HIV infection can be attributable to men with low partner change rates who remain in sex work settings for long periods, and their influence on the impact of HIV intervention. Partner change rates and duration of time in a setting determine equilibrium HIV levels. Modelling projections suggest that men with low mobility can substantially contribute to HIV prevalence among sex workers, especially in settings with prevalences <50%. This effect may reduce the impact of sex-worker interventions on HIV incidence in certain scenarios by one-third. Reductions in impact diminish at higher sex-worker prevalences. In commercial sex settings, patterns of HIV risk and transmission are influenced by both partner change rates and duration in a setting. The latter is not reflected in classic core group theory. Men who control the sex industry and regular clients may form an important 'sustaining population' that increases infection and undermines the impact of intervention. Intervention activities should include these groups, and examine the social organisation of sex work that underpins many of these relationships.

Random Matrix Theory in molecular dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Palese, Luigi Leonardo

2015-01-01

It is well known that, in some situations, principal component analysis (PCA) carried out on molecular dynamics data results in the appearance of cosine-shaped low index projections. Because this is reminiscent of the results obtained by performing PCA on a multidimensional Brownian dynamics, it has been suggested that short-time protein dynamics is essentially nothing more than a noisy signal. Here we use Random Matrix Theory to analyze a series of short-time molecular dynamics experiments which are specifically designed to be simulations with high cosine content. We use as a model system the protein apoCox17, a mitochondrial copper chaperone. Spectral analysis on correlation matrices allows to easily differentiate random correlations, simply deriving from the finite length of the process, from non-random signals reflecting the intrinsic system properties. Our results clearly show that protein dynamics is not really Brownian also in presence of the cosine-shaped low index projections on principal axes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of newly established elk populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

2007-01-01

The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator-Prey Population-Level Dynamics.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Patel, Swati

2017-07-01

This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator-prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator-prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator-prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.

How Stuttering Develops: The Multifactorial Dynamic Pathways Theory.

PubMed

Smith, Anne; Weber, Christine

2017-09-18

We advanced a multifactorial, dynamic account of the complex, nonlinear interactions of motor, linguistic, and emotional factors contributing to the development of stuttering. Our purpose here is to update our account as the multifactorial dynamic pathways theory. We review evidence related to how stuttering develops, including genetic/epigenetic factors; motor, linguistic, and emotional features; and advances in neuroimaging studies. We update evidence for our earlier claim: Although stuttering ultimately reflects impairment in speech sensorimotor processes, its course over the life span is strongly conditioned by linguistic and emotional factors. Our current account places primary emphasis on the dynamic developmental context in which stuttering emerges and follows its course during the preschool years. Rapid changes in many neurobehavioral systems are ongoing, and critical interactions among these systems likely play a major role in determining persistence of or recovery from stuttering. Stuttering, or childhood onset fluency disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition; American Psychiatric Association [APA], 2013), is a neurodevelopmental disorder that begins when neural networks supporting speech, language, and emotional functions are rapidly developing. The multifactorial dynamic pathways theory motivates experimental and clinical work to determine the specific factors that contribute to each child's pathway to the diagnosis of stuttering and those most likely to promote recovery.

Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

2016-08-01

The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

[Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

2014-11-01

Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. II. Population dynamics equations can be associated with interpretations

PubMed Central

Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D.

2014-01-01

The use of mathematical equations to analyse population dynamics measurements is being increasingly applied to elucidate complex dynamic processes in biological systems, including cancer. Purely ‘empirical’ equations may provide sufficient accuracy to support predictions and therapy design. Nevertheless, interpretation of fitting equations in terms of physical and biological propositions can provide additional insights that can be used both to refine models that prove inconsistent with data and to understand the scope of applicability of models that validate. The purpose of this tutorial is to assist readers in mathematically associating interpretations with equations and to provide guidance in choosing interpretations and experimental systems to investigate based on currently available biological knowledge, techniques in mathematical and computational analysis and methods for in vitro and in vivo experiments. PMID:25097752

Stochastic Gain in Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traulsen, Arne; Röhl, Torsten; Schuster, Heinz Georg

2004-07-01

We introduce an extension of the usual replicator dynamics to adaptive learning rates. We show that a population with a dynamic learning rate can gain an increased average payoff in transient phases and can also exploit external noise, leading the system away from the Nash equilibrium, in a resonancelike fashion. The payoff versus noise curve resembles the signal to noise ratio curve in stochastic resonance. Seen in this broad context, we introduce another mechanism that exploits fluctuations in order to improve properties of the system. Such a mechanism could be of particular interest in economic systems.

Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD) as an Emergent System: A Dynamic Systems Theory Perspective.

PubMed

Karimi-Aghdam, Saeed

2017-03-01

This paper sets out to present a novel construal of one of the notions of Vygotskian cultural-historical theory viz., zone of proximal development (ZPD) drawing upon dynamic systems theory. The principal thesis maintains that ZDP is an emergent and dynamic system which is engendered by a dialectical concatenation of psychogenesic and sociogenesic facets of human development over time. It is reasoned that Vygotskian cultural-historical theory of human development, by invoking dialectical logic, has transcended Cartesian substance dualism and in turn has proffered a monistic and process-anchored ontology for emerging becoming of human consciousness. Likewise, it is contended that dynamic systems theory, having assumed fluent flux of reality with a capital R as its ontological axiom, entails a consilience of cognitive and contextual conceptual schemes to describe, explain, and optimize human development. The paper concludes by drawing some interpretive conclusions in regard to ZPD from dynamic systems theory perspective.

Functional thermo-dynamics: a generalization of dynamic density functional theory to non-isothermal situations.

PubMed

Anero, Jesús G; Español, Pep; Tarazona, Pedro

2013-07-21

We present a generalization of Density Functional Theory (DFT) to non-equilibrium non-isothermal situations. By using the original approach set forth by Gibbs in his consideration of Macroscopic Thermodynamics (MT), we consider a Functional Thermo-Dynamics (FTD) description based on the density field and the energy density field. A crucial ingredient of the theory is an entropy functional, which is a concave functional. Therefore, there is a one to one connection between the density and energy fields with the conjugate thermodynamic fields. The connection between the three levels of description (MT, DFT, FTD) is clarified through a bridge theorem that relates the entropy of different levels of description and that constitutes a generalization of Mermin's theorem to arbitrary levels of description whose relevant variables are connected linearly. Although the FTD level of description does not provide any new information about averages and correlations at equilibrium, it is a crucial ingredient for the dynamics in non-equilibrium states. We obtain with the technique of projection operators the set of dynamic equations that describe the evolution of the density and energy density fields from an initial non-equilibrium state towards equilibrium. These equations generalize time dependent density functional theory to non-isothermal situations. We also present an explicit model for the entropy functional for hard spheres.

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Genetic perspectives on northern population cycles: bridging the gap between theory and empirical studies.

PubMed

Norén, Karin; Angerbjörn, Anders

2014-05-01

Many key species in northern ecosystems are characterised by high-amplitude cyclic population demography. In 1924, Charles Elton described the ecology and evolution of cyclic populations in a classic paper and, since then, a major focus has been the underlying causes of population cycles. Elton hypothesised that fluctuations reduced population genetic variation and influenced the direction of selection pressures. In concordance with Elton, present theories concern the direct consequences of population cycles for genetic structure due to the processes of genetic drift and selection, but also include feedback models of genetic composition on population dynamics. Most of these theories gained mathematical support during the 1970s and onwards, but due to methodological drawbacks, difficulties in long-term sampling and a complex interplay between microevolutionary processes, clear empirical data allowing the testing of these predictions are still scarce. Current genetic tools allow for estimates of genetic variation and identification of adaptive genomic regions, making this an ideal time to revisit this subject. Herein, we attempt to contribute towards a consensus regarding the enigma described by Elton almost 90 years ago. We present nine predictions covering the direct and genetic feedback consequences of population cycles on genetic variation and population structure, and review the empirical evidence. Generally, empirical support for the predictions was low and scattered, with obvious gaps in the understanding of basic population processes. We conclude that genetic variation in northern cyclic populations generally is high and that the geographic distribution and amount of diversity are usually suggested to be determined by various forms of context- and density-dependent dispersal exceeding the impact of genetic drift. Furthermore, we found few clear signatures of selection determining genetic composition in cyclic populations. Dispersal is assumed to have a strong

Storytelling/narrative theory to address health communication with minority populations.

PubMed

Lee, Haeok; Fawcett, Jacqueline; DeMarco, Rosanna

2016-05-01

To explain the development and application of storytelling/narrative theory in health disparities intervention research as a way to promote health communication and behavior change among racial, ethnic, and minority populations. The proposed storytelling theory helps explain that storytelling affects changes in attitude and health behavior of the viewer through realism, identification, and transportation. The proposed storytelling/narrative theory can be a guide to develop culturally grounded narrative interventions that have the ability to connect with hard-to-reach populations. Narrative communication is context-dependent because it derives meaning from the surrounding situation and provides situation-based stories that are a pathway to processing story content. Although storytelling is grounded in nursing practice and education, it is underutilized in nursing interventional research. Future efforts are needed to extend theory-based narrative intervention studies designed to change attitude and behaviors that will reduce health disparities among minorities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

PubMed

Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

2017-12-26

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

The demographic transition: an attempt to reformulate a population theory.

PubMed

Hofsten, E

1981-01-01

In this effort to reformulate the demographic transition theory, attention is directed to the following: Malthus and Karl Marx's criticism of his principle of population; the 1st stage of transition, i.e., high mortality, high fertility, and slow population growth; the 2nd stage of declining mortality; the 3rd stage of declining fertility; the 4th stage when mortality and fertility are both low; the growth potential; and the demographic transition in the 3rd world countries. The demographic transition theory has become popular among demographers, economists, historians, and others interested in studying the development of population over time since the end of World War 2. This interest has most likely been created by the anxiety over the population explosion in the 3rd world countries. Transition has made demographers believe that the period of rapid population growth will be automatically succeeded by a period of more or less constant population size. The question that arises is whether it is as simple as that. Demographic transition has to a great extent taken the place of Malthus' principle of population as a general theory of population. Demographic transition appears to describe in a satisfactory way the development of population which all currently industrialized countires have passed through, when going from the preindustrial to the present industrialized stage. The objectives to demographic transition as a general theory are considered. Some of the factors which have accounted for the decline in fertility in Europe may also apply to the 3rd world countries. 1 such factor is the effect of reduced infant and child mortality on the individual level. The fertility decline, caused by reduced infant and child mortality may, however, be of limited size. The great amount of unemployment in the 3rd world may affect fertility in a downward direction. The fertility decline in Europe occurred simultaneously with an industrialization process, which gradually covered the

A note on the theory of fast money flow dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A.; Kieu, T.; Melatos, A.

2010-08-01

The gauge theory of arbitrage was introduced by Ilinski in [K. Ilinski, preprint arXiv:hep-th/9710148 (1997)] and applied to fast money flows in [A. Ilinskaia, K. Ilinski, preprint arXiv:cond-mat/9902044 (1999); K. Ilinski, Physics of finance: gauge modelling in non-equilibrium pricing (Wiley, 2001)]. The theory of fast money flow dynamics attempts to model the evolution of currency exchange rates and stock prices on short, e.g. intra-day, time scales. It has been used to explain some of the heuristic trading rules, known as technical analysis, that are used by professional traders in the equity and foreign exchange markets. A critique of some of the underlying assumptions of the gauge theory of arbitrage was presented by Sornette in [D. Sornette, Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 9, 505 (1998)]. In this paper, we present a critique of the theory of fast money flow dynamics, which was not examined by Sornette. We demonstrate that the choice of the input parameters used in [K. Ilinski, Physics of finance: gauge modelling in non-equilibrium pricing (Wiley, 2001)] results in sinusoidal oscillations of the exchange rate, in conflict with the results presented in [K. Ilinski, Physics of finance: gauge modelling in non-equilibrium pricing (Wiley, 2001)]. We also find that the dynamics predicted by the theory are generally unstable in most realistic situations, with the exchange rate tending to zero or infinity exponentially.

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographicallymore » scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.« less

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.

PubMed

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

2011-09-01

Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Dynamically SUSY breaking SQCD on F-theory seven-branes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchbinder, Evgeny I.

2008-09-01

We study how dynamically breaking SQCD can be obtained on two intersecting seven-branes in F-theory. In the mechanism which we present in this paper one of the seven-branes is responsible for producing the low-energy gauge group and the other one is for generating vector bundle moduli. The fundamental matter charged under the gauge group is localized on the intersection. The mass of the matter fields is controlled by the vector bundle moduli. The analysis of under what conditions a sufficient number of the fundamental flavors becomes light turns out to be equivalent to the analysis of non-perturbative superpotentials for vector bundle moduli in Heterotic M-theory. We give an example in which we present an explicit equation in the moduli space whose zero locus corresponds to the fundamental fields becoming light. This allows us to provide a local F-theory realization of massive Script N = 1, SU(Nc) SQCD in the free magnetic range which dynamically breaks supersymmetry.

Dynamic acoustic radiation force acting on cylindrical shells: theory and simulations.

PubMed

Mitri, F G; Fatemi, M

2005-05-01

An object placed in an acoustic field is known to experience a force due to the transfer of momentum from the wave to the object itself. This force is known to be steady when the incident field is considered to be continuous with constant amplitude. One may define the dynamic (oscillatory) radiation force for a continuous wave-field whose intensity varies slowly with time. This paper extends the theory of the dynamic acoustic radiation force resulting from an amplitude-modulated progressive plane wave-field incident on solid cylinders to the case of solid cylindrical shells with particular emphasis on their thickness and contents of their hollow regions. A new factor corresponding to the dynamic radiation force is defined as Y(d) and stands for the dynamic radiation force per unit energy density and unit cross sectional surface. The results of numerical calculations are presented, indicating the ways in which the form of the dynamic radiation force function curves are affected by variations in the material mechanical parameters and by changes in the interior fluid inside the shell's hollow region. It was shown that the dynamic radiation force function Y(d) deviates from the static radiation force function for progressive waves Y(p) when the modulation frequency increases. These results indicate that the theory presented here is broader than the existing theory on cylinders.

Chua's Circuit and the Qualitative Theory of Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mira, Christian

Simple electronic oscillators were at the origin of many studies related to the qualitative theory of dynamical systems. Chua's circuit ([Chua, 1992; Madan, 1993; Chua, 1993; Chua & Pivka, 1995; Wu & Chua, 1996; Pivka et al., 1996]) is now playing an equivalent role for the generation and understanding of complex dynamics. In honour of my friend Leon Chua on his 60th birthday.

Consistent multiphase-field theory for interface driven multidomain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tóth, Gyula I.; Pusztai, Tamás; Gránásy, László

2015-11-01

We present a multiphase-field theory for describing pattern formation in multidomain and/or multicomponent systems. The construction of the free energy functional and the dynamic equations is based on criteria that ensure mathematical and physical consistency. We first analyze previous multiphase-field theories and identify their advantageous and disadvantageous features. On the basis of this analysis, we introduce a way of constructing the free energy surface and derive a generalized multiphase description for arbitrary number of phases (or domains). The presented approach retains the variational formalism, reduces (or extends) naturally to lower (or higher) number of fields on the level of both the free energy functional and the dynamic equations, enables the use of arbitrary pairwise equilibrium interfacial properties, penalizes multiple junctions increasingly with the number of phases, ensures non-negative entropy production and the convergence of the dynamic solutions to the equilibrium solutions, and avoids the appearance of spurious phases on binary interfaces. The approach is tested for multicomponent phase separation and grain coarsening.

The Price Equation, Gradient Dynamics, and Continuous Trait Game Theory.

PubMed

Lehtonen, Jussi

2018-01-01

A recent article convincingly nominated the Price equation as the fundamental theorem of evolution and used it as a foundation to derive several other theorems. A major section of evolutionary theory that was not addressed is that of game theory and gradient dynamics of continuous traits with frequency-dependent fitness. Deriving fundamental results in these fields under the unifying framework of the Price equation illuminates similarities and differences between approaches and allows a simple, unified view of game-theoretical and dynamic concepts. Using Taylor polynomials and the Price equation, I derive a dynamic measure of evolutionary change, a condition for singular points, the convergence stability criterion, and an alternative interpretation of evolutionary stability. Furthermore, by applying the Price equation to a multivariable Taylor polynomial, the direct fitness approach to kin selection emerges. Finally, I compare these results to the mean gradient equation of quantitative genetics and the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics.

Traditional Chinese medicine: potential approaches from modern dynamical complexity theories.

PubMed

Ma, Yan; Zhou, Kehua; Fan, Jing; Sun, Shuchen

2016-03-01

Despite the widespread use of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in clinical settings, proving its effectiveness via scientific trials is still a challenge. TCM views the human body as a complex dynamical system, and focuses on the balance of the human body, both internally and with its external environment. Such fundamental concepts require investigations using system-level quantification approaches, which are beyond conventional reductionism. Only methods that quantify dynamical complexity can bring new insights into the evaluation of TCM. In a previous article, we briefly introduced the potential value of Multiscale Entropy (MSE) analysis in TCM. This article aims to explain the existing challenges in TCM quantification, to introduce the consistency of dynamical complexity theories and TCM theories, and to inspire future system-level research on health and disease.

Four tails problems for dynamical collapse theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQueen, Kelvin J.

2015-02-01

The primary quantum mechanical equation of motion entails that measurements typically do not have determinate outcomes, but result in superpositions of all possible outcomes. Dynamical collapse theories (e.g. GRW) supplement this equation with a stochastic Gaussian collapse function, intended to collapse the superposition of outcomes into one outcome. But the Gaussian collapses are imperfect in a way that leaves the superpositions intact. This is the tails problem. There are several ways of making this problem more precise. But many authors dismiss the problem without considering the more severe formulations. Here I distinguish four distinct tails problems. The first (bare tails problem) and second (structured tails problem) exist in the literature. I argue that while the first is a pseudo-problem, the second has not been adequately addressed. The third (multiverse tails problem) reformulates the second to account for recently discovered dynamical consequences of collapse. Finally the fourth (tails problem dilemma) shows that solving the third by replacing the Gaussian with a non-Gaussian collapse function introduces new conflict with relativity theory.

Nonadiabatic Dynamics in Single-Electron Tunneling Devices with Time-Dependent Density-Functional Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittmann, Niklas; Splettstoesser, Janine; Helbig, Nicole

2018-04-01

We simulate the dynamics of a single-electron source, modeled as a quantum dot with on-site Coulomb interaction and tunnel coupling to an adjacent lead in time-dependent density-functional theory. Based on this system, we develop a time-nonlocal exchange-correlation potential by exploiting analogies with quantum-transport theory. The time nonlocality manifests itself in a dynamical potential step. We explicitly link the time evolution of the dynamical step to physical relaxation timescales of the electron dynamics. Finally, we discuss prospects for simulations of larger mesoscopic systems.

Nonadiabatic Dynamics in Single-Electron Tunneling Devices with Time-Dependent Density-Functional Theory.

PubMed

Dittmann, Niklas; Splettstoesser, Janine; Helbig, Nicole

2018-04-13

We simulate the dynamics of a single-electron source, modeled as a quantum dot with on-site Coulomb interaction and tunnel coupling to an adjacent lead in time-dependent density-functional theory. Based on this system, we develop a time-nonlocal exchange-correlation potential by exploiting analogies with quantum-transport theory. The time nonlocality manifests itself in a dynamical potential step. We explicitly link the time evolution of the dynamical step to physical relaxation timescales of the electron dynamics. Finally, we discuss prospects for simulations of larger mesoscopic systems.

How Stuttering Develops: The Multifactorial Dynamic Pathways Theory

PubMed Central

Weber, Christine

2017-01-01

Purpose We advanced a multifactorial, dynamic account of the complex, nonlinear interactions of motor, linguistic, and emotional factors contributing to the development of stuttering. Our purpose here is to update our account as the multifactorial dynamic pathways theory. Method We review evidence related to how stuttering develops, including genetic/epigenetic factors; motor, linguistic, and emotional features; and advances in neuroimaging studies. We update evidence for our earlier claim: Although stuttering ultimately reflects impairment in speech sensorimotor processes, its course over the life span is strongly conditioned by linguistic and emotional factors. Results Our current account places primary emphasis on the dynamic developmental context in which stuttering emerges and follows its course during the preschool years. Rapid changes in many neurobehavioral systems are ongoing, and critical interactions among these systems likely play a major role in determining persistence of or recovery from stuttering. Conclusion Stuttering, or childhood onset fluency disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition; American Psychiatric Association [APA], 2013), is a neurodevelopmental disorder that begins when neural networks supporting speech, language, and emotional functions are rapidly developing. The multifactorial dynamic pathways theory motivates experimental and clinical work to determine the specific factors that contribute to each child's pathway to the diagnosis of stuttering and those most likely to promote recovery. PMID:28837728

Laser dynamics: The system dynamics and network theory of optoelectronic integrated circuit design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarng, Tom Shinming-T. K.

Laser dynamics is the system dynamics, communication and network theory for the design of opto-electronic integrated circuit (OEIC). Combining the optical network theory and optical communication theory, the system analysis and design for the OEIC fundamental building blocks is considered. These building blocks include the direct current modulation, inject light modulation, wideband filter, super-gain optical amplifier, E/O and O/O optical bistability and current-controlled optical oscillator. Based on the rate equations, the phase diagram and phase portrait analysis is applied to the theoretical studies and numerical simulation. The OEIC system design methodologies are developed for the OEIC design. Stimulating-field-dependent rate equations are used to model the line-width narrowing/broadening mechanism for the CW mode and frequency chirp of semiconductor lasers. The momentary spectra are carrier-density-dependent. Furthermore, the phase portrait analysis and the nonlinear refractive index is used to simulate the single mode frequency chirp. The average spectra of chaos, period doubling, period pulsing, multi-loops and analog modulation are generated and analyzed. The bifurcation-chirp design chart with modulation depth and modulation frequency as parameters is provided for design purpose.

Understanding rapid evolution in predator‐prey interactions using the theory of fast‐slow dynamical systems.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Ellner, Stephen P

2010-11-01

The accumulation of evidence that ecologically important traits often evolve at the same time and rate as ecological dynamics (e.g., changes in species' abundances or spatial distributions) has outpaced theory describing the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes with comparable timescales. The disparity between experiment and theory is partially due to the high dimensionality of models that include both evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here we show how the theory of fast-slow dynamical systems can be used to reduce model dimension, and we use that body of theory to study a general predator-prey system exhibiting fast evolution in either the predator or the prey. Our approach yields graphical methods with predictive power about when new and unique dynamics (e.g., completely out-of-phase oscillations and cryptic dynamics) can arise in ecological systems exhibiting fast evolution. In addition, we derive analytical expressions for determining when such behavior arises and how evolution affects qualitative properties of the ecological dynamics. Finally, while the theory requires a separation of timescales between the ecological and evolutionary processes, our approach yields insight into systems where the rates of those processes are comparable and thus is a step toward creating a general ecoevolutionary theory.

Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

Treesearch

M.E. and D.C. Lee Borsuk

2009-01-01

The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

Treesearch

Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

1995-01-01

A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

2015-06-01

The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

Numerical modeling of mosquito population dynamics of Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Yamashita, William M S; Das, Shyam S; Chapiro, Grigori

2018-04-16

The global incidences of dengue virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. It is predominantly spread by Aedes aegypti in the tropical and sub-tropical countries in the world. Understanding these dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. For this reason, a new model has been proposed to investigate the population dynamics of mosquitoes in a city. The present paper discusses the numerical modeling of population dynamics of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in an urban neighborhood of a city using the finite volume method. The model describes how populations spread through the city assisted by the wind. This model allows incorporating external factors (wind and chemical insecticides) and topography data (streets, building blocks, parks, forests and beach). The proposed model has been successfully tested in examples involving two Brazilian cities (City center, Juiz de Fora and Copacabana Beach, Rio de Janeiro). Invasion phenomena of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been observed in each of the simulations. It was observed that, inside the blocks, the growth of the population for both winged and aquatic phase causes an infestation of Ae. aegypti in a short time. Within the blocks the mosquito population was concentrated and diffused slowly. In the streets, there was a long-distance spread, which was influenced by wind and diffusion with a low concentration of mosquito population. The model was also tested taking into account chemical insecticides spread in two different configurations. It has been observed that the insecticides have a significant effect on the mosquito population for both winged and aquatic phases when the chemical insecticides spread more uniformly along all the streets in a neighborhood of a city. The presented methodology can be employed to evaluate and to understand the epidemic risks in a specific

Second Language Developmental Dynamics: How Dynamic Systems Theory Accounts for Issues in Second Language Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosmawati

2014-01-01

Dynamic systems theory (DST) is presented in this article as a suitable approach to research the acquisition of second language (L2) because of its close alignment with the process of second language learning. Through a process of identifying and comparing the characteristics of a dynamic system with the process of L2 learning, this article…

Ecological constraints influence the emergence of cooperative breeding when population dynamics determine the fitness of helpers.

PubMed

McLeod, David V; Wild, Geoff

2013-11-01

Cooperative breeding is a system in which certain individuals facilitate the production of offspring by others. The ecological constraints hypothesis states that ecological conditions deter individuals from breeding independently, and so individuals breed cooperatively to make the best of a bad situation. Current theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis is lacking. We formulate a mathematical model that emphasizes the underlying ecology of cooperative breeders. Our goal is to derive theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis using an ecological model of population dynamics. We consider a population composed of two kinds of individuals, nonbreeders (auxiliaries) and breeders. We suppose that help provided by an auxiliary increases breeder fecundity, but reduces the probability with which the auxiliary becomes a breeder. Our main result is a condition that guarantees success of auxiliary help. We predict that increasing the cost of dispersal promotes helping, in agreement with verbal theory. We also predict that increasing breeder mortality can either hinder helping (at high population densities), or promote it (at low population densities). We conclude that ecological constraints can exert influence over the evolution of auxiliary help when population dynamics are considered; moreover, that influence need not coincide with direct fitness benefits as previously found. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

2017-12-01

In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and information theory: basic concepts and relaxing dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altaner, Bernhard

2017-11-01

Thermodynamics is based on the notions of energy and entropy. While energy is the elementary quantity governing physical dynamics, entropy is the fundamental concept in information theory. In this work, starting from first principles, we give a detailed didactic account on the relations between energy and entropy and thus physics and information theory. We show that thermodynamic process inequalities, like the second law, are equivalent to the requirement that an effective description for physical dynamics is strongly relaxing. From the perspective of information theory, strongly relaxing dynamics govern the irreversible convergence of a statistical ensemble towards the maximally non-commital probability distribution that is compatible with thermodynamic equilibrium parameters. In particular, Markov processes that converge to a thermodynamic equilibrium state are strongly relaxing. Our framework generalizes previous results to arbitrary open and driven systems, yielding novel thermodynamic bounds for idealized and real processes. , which features invited work from the best early-career researchers working within the scope of J. Phys. A. This project is part of the Journal of Physics series’ 50th anniversary celebrations in 2017. Bernhard Altaner was selected by the Editorial Board of J. Phys. A as an Emerging Talent.

Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

1978-01-01

The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J.; Cook, Kevan J.; Bull, James C.

2013-01-01

It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

PubMed

Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

2013-01-01

It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE PAGES

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

2015-09-14

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Nonlinear dynamic theory for photorefractive phase hologram formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, D. M.; Shah, R. R.; Rabson, T. A.; Tittle, F. K.

1976-01-01

A nonlinear dynamic theory is developed for the formation of photorefractive volume phase holograms. A feedback mechanism existing between the photogenerated field and free-electron density, treated explicitly, yields the growth and saturation of the space-charge field in a time scale characterized by the coupling strength between them. The expression for the field reduces in the short-time limit to previous theories and approaches in the long-time limit the internal or photovoltaic field. Additionally, the phase of the space charge field is shown to be time-dependent.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Role of the Pair Correlation Function in the Dynamical Transition Predicted by Mode Coupling Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandi, Manoj Kumar; Banerjee, Atreyee; Dasgupta, Chandan; Bhattacharyya, Sarika Maitra

2017-12-01

In a recent study, we have found that for a large number of systems the configurational entropy at the pair level Sc 2, which is primarily determined by the pair correlation function, vanishes at the dynamical transition temperature Tc. Thus, it appears that the information of the transition temperature is embedded in the structure of the liquid. In order to investigate this, we describe the dynamics of the system at the mean field level and, using the concepts of the dynamical density functional theory, show that the dynamical transition temperature depends only on the pair correlation function. Thus, this theory is similar in spirit to the microscopic mode coupling theory (MCT). However, unlike microscopic MCT, which predicts a very high transition temperature, the present theory predicts a transition temperature that is similar to Tc. This implies that the information of the dynamical transition temperature is embedded in the pair correlation function.

Dynamic Systems Theory and Team Sport Coaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gréhaigne, Jean-Francis; Godbout, Paul

2014-01-01

This article examines the theory of dynamic systems and its use in the domains of the study and coaching of team sports. The two teams involved in a match are looked at as two interacting systems in movement, where opposition is paramount. A key element for the observation of game play is the notion of configuration of play and its ever-changing…

Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

PubMed Central

Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

2014-01-01

In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

2015-07-07

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

Nonadiabatic Molecular Dynamics and Orthogonality Constrained Density Functional Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shushkov, Philip Georgiev

The exact quantum dynamics of realistic, multidimensional systems remains a formidable computational challenge. In many chemical processes, however, quantum effects such as tunneling, zero-point energy quantization, and nonadiabatic transitions play an important role. Therefore, approximate approaches that improve on the classical mechanical framework are of special practical interest. We propose a novel ring polymer surface hopping method for the calculation of chemical rate constants. The method blends two approaches, namely ring polymer molecular dynamics that accounts for tunneling and zero-point energy quantization, and surface hopping that incorporates nonadiabatic transitions. We test the method against exact quantum mechanical calculations for a one-dimensional, two-state model system. The method reproduces quite accurately the tunneling contribution to the rate and the distribution of reactants between the electronic states for this model system. Semiclassical instanton theory, an approach related to ring polymer molecular dynamics, accounts for tunneling by the use of periodic classical trajectories on the inverted potential energy surface. We study a model of electron transfer in solution, a chemical process where nonadiabatic events are prominent. By representing the tunneling electron with a ring polymer, we derive Marcus theory of electron transfer from semiclassical instanton theory after a careful analysis of the tunneling mode. We demonstrate that semiclassical instanton theory can recover the limit of Fermi's Golden Rule rate in a low-temperature, deep-tunneling regime. Mixed quantum-classical dynamics treats a few important degrees of freedom quantum mechanically, while classical mechanics describes affordably the rest of the system. But the interface of quantum and classical description is a challenging theoretical problem, especially for low-energy chemical processes. We therefore focus on the semiclassical limit of the coupled nuclear

Computation of magnetic suspension of maglev systems using dynamic circuit theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, J. L.; Rote, D. M.; Coffey, H. T.

1992-01-01

Dynamic circuit theory is applied to several magnetic suspensions associated with maglev systems. These suspension systems are the loop-shaped coil guideway, the figure-eight-shaped null-flux coil guideway, and the continuous sheet guideway. Mathematical models, which can be used for the development of computer codes, are provided for each of these suspension systems. The differences and similarities of the models in using dynamic circuit theory are discussed in the paper. The paper emphasizes the transient and dynamic analysis and computer simulation of maglev systems. In general, the method discussed here can be applied to many electrodynamic suspension system design concepts. It is also suited for the computation of the performance of maglev propulsion systems. Numerical examples are presented in the paper.

Dynamical influence processes on networks: general theory and applications to social contagion.

PubMed

Harris, Kameron Decker; Danforth, Christopher M; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

2013-08-01

We study binary state dynamics on a network where each node acts in response to the average state of its neighborhood. By allowing varying amounts of stochasticity in both the network and node responses, we find different outcomes in random and deterministic versions of the model. In the limit of a large, dense network, however, we show that these dynamics coincide. We construct a general mean-field theory for random networks and show this predicts that the dynamics on the network is a smoothed version of the average response function dynamics. Thus, the behavior of the system can range from steady state to chaotic depending on the response functions, network connectivity, and update synchronicity. As a specific example, we model the competing tendencies of imitation and nonconformity by incorporating an off-threshold into standard threshold models of social contagion. In this way, we attempt to capture important aspects of fashions and societal trends. We compare our theory to extensive simulations of this "limited imitation contagion" model on Poisson random graphs, finding agreement between the mean-field theory and stochastic simulations.

Nonadiabatic molecular dynamics simulations: synergies between theory and experiments.

PubMed

Tavernelli, Ivano

2015-03-17

Recent developments in nonadiabatic dynamics enabled ab inito simulations of complex ultrafast processes in the condensed phase. These advances have opened new avenues in the study of many photophysical and photochemical reactions triggered by the absorption of electromagnetic radiation. In particular, theoretical investigations can be combined with the most sophisticated femtosecond experimental techniques to guide the interpretation of measured time-resolved observables. At the same time, the availability of experimental data at high (spatial and time) resolution offers a unique opportunity for the benchmarking and the improvement of those theoretical models used to describe complex molecular systems in their natural environment. The established synergy between theory and experiments can produce a better understanding of new ultrafast physical and chemical processes at atomistic scale resolution. Furthermore, reliable ab inito molecular dynamics simulations can already be successfully employed as predictive tools to guide new experiments as well as the design of novel and better performing materials. In this paper, I will give a concise account on the state of the art of molecular dynamics simulations of complex molecular systems in their excited states. The principal aim of this approach is the description of a given system of interest under the most realistic ambient conditions including all environmental effects that influence experiments, for instance, the interaction with the solvent and with external time-dependent electric fields, temperature, and pressure. To this end, time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is among the most efficient and accurate methods for the representation of the electronic dynamics, while trajectory surface hopping gives a valuable representation of the nuclear quantum dynamics in the excited states (including nonadiabatic effects). Concerning the environment and its effects on the dynamics, the quantum mechanics

Quantitative theory of driven nonlinear brain dynamics.

PubMed

Roberts, J A; Robinson, P A

2012-09-01

Strong periodic stimuli such as bright flashing lights evoke nonlinear responses in the brain and interact nonlinearly with ongoing cortical activity, but the underlying mechanisms for these phenomena are poorly understood at present. The dominant features of these experimentally observed dynamics are reproduced by the dynamics of a quantitative neural field model subject to periodic drive. Model power spectra over a range of drive frequencies show agreement with multiple features of experimental measurements, exhibiting nonlinear effects including entrainment over a range of frequencies around the natural alpha frequency f(α), subharmonic entrainment near 2f(α), and harmonic generation. Further analysis of the driven dynamics as a function of the drive parameters reveals rich nonlinear dynamics that is predicted to be observable in future experiments at high drive amplitude, including period doubling, bistable phase-locking, hysteresis, wave mixing, and chaos indicated by positive Lyapunov exponents. Moreover, photosensitive seizures are predicted for physiologically realistic model parameters yielding bistability between healthy and seizure dynamics. These results demonstrate the applicability of neural field models to the new regime of periodically driven nonlinear dynamics, enabling interpretation of experimental data in terms of specific generating mechanisms and providing new tests of the theory. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A thermostatted kinetic theory model for event-driven pedestrian dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianca, Carlo; Mogno, Caterina

2018-06-01

This paper is devoted to the modeling of the pedestrian dynamics by means of the thermostatted kinetic theory. Specifically the microscopic interactions among pedestrians and an external force field are modeled for simulating the evacuation of pedestrians from a metro station. The fundamentals of the stochastic game theory and the thermostatted kinetic theory are coupled for the derivation of a specific mathematical model which depicts the time evolution of the distribution of pedestrians at different exits of a metro station. The perturbation theory is employed in order to establish the stability analysis of the nonequilibrium stationary states in the case of a metro station consisting of two exits. A general sensitivity analysis on the initial conditions, the magnitude of the external force field and the number of exits is presented by means of numerical simulations which, in particular, show how the asymptotic distribution and the convergence time are affected by the presence of an external force field. The results show how, in evacuation conditions, the interaction dynamics among pedestrians can be negligible with respect to the external force. The important role of the thermostat term in allowing the reaching of the nonequilibrium stationary state is stressed out. Research perspectives are underlined at the end of paper, in particular for what concerns the derivation of frameworks that take into account the definition of local external actions and the introduction of the space and velocity dynamics.

Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains.

PubMed

Shen, Lulan; Van Gorder, Robert A

2017-05-07

Predator-prey-subsidy dynamics on stepping-stone domains are examined using a variety of network configurations. Our problem is motivated by the interactions between arctic foxes (predator) and lemmings (prey) in the presence of seal carrion (subsidy) provided by polar bears. We use the n-Patch Model, which considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We consider the role that the carrying capacity, predator migration rate, input subsidy rate, predator mortality rate, and proportion of predators surviving migration play in the predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics. We find that for certain types of networks, added mobility will help predator populations, allowing them to survive or coexist when they would otherwise go extinct if confined to one location, while in other situations (such as when sparsely distributed nodes in the network have few resources available) the added mobility will hurt the predator population. We also find that a combination of favourable conditions for the prey and subsidy can lead to the formation of limit cycles (boom and bust dynamic) from stable equilibrium states. These modifications to the dynamics vary depending on the specific network structure employed, highlighting the fact that network structure can strongly influence the predator-prey-subsidy dynamics in stepping-stone domains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Graph theory as a proxy for spatially explicit population models in conservation planning.

PubMed

Minor, Emily S; Urban, Dean L

2007-09-01

Spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) are often considered the best way to predict and manage species distributions in spatially heterogeneous landscapes. However, they are computationally intensive and require extensive knowledge of species' biology and behavior, limiting their application in many cases. An alternative to SEPMs is graph theory, which has minimal data requirements and efficient algorithms. Although only recently introduced to landscape ecology, graph theory is well suited to ecological applications concerned with connectivity or movement. This paper compares the performance of graph theory to a SEPM in selecting important habitat patches for Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) conservation. We use both models to identify habitat patches that act as population sources and persistent patches and also use graph theory to identify patches that act as stepping stones for dispersal. Correlations of patch rankings were very high between the two models. In addition, graph theory offers the ability to identify patches that are very important to habitat connectivity and thus long-term population persistence across the landscape. We show that graph theory makes very similar predictions in most cases and in other cases offers insight not available from the SEPM, and we conclude that graph theory is a suitable and possibly preferable alternative to SEPMs for species conservation in heterogeneous landscapes.

Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Hauert, Christoph

2006-07-01

Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics.

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

Role of the Pair Correlation Function in the Dynamical Transition Predicted by Mode Coupling Theory.

PubMed

Nandi, Manoj Kumar; Banerjee, Atreyee; Dasgupta, Chandan; Bhattacharyya, Sarika Maitra

2017-12-29

In a recent study, we have found that for a large number of systems the configurational entropy at the pair level S_{c2}, which is primarily determined by the pair correlation function, vanishes at the dynamical transition temperature T_{c}. Thus, it appears that the information of the transition temperature is embedded in the structure of the liquid. In order to investigate this, we describe the dynamics of the system at the mean field level and, using the concepts of the dynamical density functional theory, show that the dynamical transition temperature depends only on the pair correlation function. Thus, this theory is similar in spirit to the microscopic mode coupling theory (MCT). However, unlike microscopic MCT, which predicts a very high transition temperature, the present theory predicts a transition temperature that is similar to T_{c}. This implies that the information of the dynamical transition temperature is embedded in the pair correlation function.

Connection dynamics of a gauge theory of gravity coupled with matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jian; Banerjee, Kinjal; Ma, Yongge

2013-10-01

We study the coupling of the gravitational action, which is a linear combination of the Hilbert-Palatini term and the quadratic torsion term, to the action of Dirac fermions. The system possesses local Poincare invariance and hence belongs to Poincare gauge theory (PGT) with matter. The complete Hamiltonian analysis of the theory is carried out without gauge fixing but under certain ansatz on the coupling parameters, which leads to a consistent connection dynamics with second-class constraints and torsion. After performing a partial gauge fixing, all second-class constraints can be solved, and a SU(2)-connection dynamical formalism of the theory can be obtained. Hence, the techniques of loop quantum gravity (LQG) can be employed to quantize this PGT with non-zero torsion. Moreover, the Barbero-Immirzi parameter in LQG acquires its physical meaning as the coupling parameter between the Hilbert-Palatini term and the quadratic torsion term in this gauge theory of gravity.

WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

2017-06-01

Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics—such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states—are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to this class of problems. The WKB approximation allows one to evaluate the mean time and/or probability of population extinction, fixation and switches resulting from either intrinsic (demographic) noise, or a combination of the demographic noise and environmental variations, deterministic or random. We mostly cover well-mixed populations, single and multiple, but also briefly consider populations on heterogeneous networks and spatial populations. The spatial setting also allows one to study large fluctuations of the speed of biological invasions. Finally, we briefly discuss possible directions of future work.

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

PubMed

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action in Structured Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Marta Daniela de Almeida

The pervasiveness of cooperation in Nature is not easily explained. If evolution is characterized by competition and survival of the fittest, why should selfish individuals cooperate with each other? Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) provides a suitable mathematical framework to study this problem, central to many areas of science. Conventionally, interactions between individuals are modeled in terms of one-shot, symmetric 2-Person Dilemmas of Cooperation, but many real-life situations involve decisions within groups with more than 2 individuals, which are best-dealt in the framework of N-Person games. In this Thesis, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of two paradigmatic collective social dilemmas - the N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma (NPD) and the N-Person Snowdrift Game (NSG) on structured populations, modeled by networks with diverse topological properties. Cooperative strategies are just one example of the many traits that can be transmitted on social networks. Several recent studies based on empirical evidence from a medical database have suggested the existence of a 3 degrees of influence rule, according to which not only our "friends", but also our friends' friends, and our friends' friends' friends, have a non-trivial influence on our decisions. We investigate the degree of peer influence that emerges from the spread of cooperative strategies, opinions and diseases on populations with distinct underlying networks of contacts. Our results show that networks naturally entangle individuals into interactions of many-body nature and that for each network class considered different processes lead to identical degrees of influence. None

Nonequilibrium dynamical mean-field theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freericks, James

2007-03-01

Dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) is establishing itself as one of the most powerful approaches to the quantum many-body problem in strongly correlated electron materials. Recently, the formalism has been generalized to study nonequilibrium problems [1,2], such as the evolution of Bloch oscillations in a material that changes from a diffusive metal to a Mott insulator [2,3]. Using a real-time formalism on the Kadanoff-Baym-Keldysh contour, the DMFT algorithm can be generalized to the case of systems that are not time-translation invariant. The computational algorithm has a parallel implementation with essentially a linear scale up when running on thousands of processors. Results on the decay of Bloch oscillations, their change of character within the Mott insulator, and movies on how electrons redistribute themselves due to their response to an external electrical field will be presented. In addition to solid-state applications, this work also applies to the behavior of mixtures of light and heavy cold atoms in optical lattices. [1] V. M. Turkowski and J. K. Freericks, Spectral moment sum rules for strongly correlated electrons in time-dependent electric fields, Phys. Rev. B 075108 (2006); Erratum, Phys. Rev. B 73, 209902(E) (2006). [2] J. K. Freericks, V. M. Turkowski , and V. Zlati'c, Nonlinear response of strongly correlated materials to large electric fields, in Proceedings of the HPCMP Users Group Conference 2006, Denver, CO, June 26--29, 2006 edited by D. E. Post (IEEE Computer Society, Los Alamitos, CA, 2006), to appear. [3] J. K. Freericks, V. M. Turkowski, and V. Zlati'c, Nonequilibrium dynamical mean-field theory, submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. cond-mat//0607053.

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

Chaos Theory: Implications for Nonlinear Dynamics in Counseling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stickel, Sue A.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the implications of chaos theory for counseling. The scientific notion of chaos refers to the tendency of dynamical, nonlinear systems toward irregular, sometimes unpredictable, yet deterministic behavior. Therapists, especially those working from a brief approach, have noted the importance of the client's…

Stochastic hybrid delay population dynamics: well-posed models and extinction.

PubMed

Yuan, Chenggui; Mao, Xuerong; Lygeros, John

2009-01-01

Nonlinear differential equations have been used for decades for studying fluctuations in the populations of species, interactions of species with the environment, and competition and symbiosis between species. Over the years, the original non-linear models have been embellished with delay terms, stochastic terms and more recently discrete dynamics. In this paper, we investigate stochastic hybrid delay population dynamics (SHDPD), a very general class of population dynamics that comprises all of these phenomena. For this class of systems, we provide sufficient conditions to ensure that SHDPD have global positive, ultimately bounded solutions, a minimum requirement for a realistic, well-posed model. We then study the question of extinction and establish conditions under which an ecosystem modelled by SHDPD is doomed.

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

PubMed

Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

Evolutionary dynamics on any population structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Benjamin; Lippner, Gabor; Chen, Yu-Ting; Fotouhi, Babak; Momeni, Naghmeh; Yau, Shing-Tung; Nowak, Martin A.

2017-03-01

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The structure of a population can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations remains difficult. Mathematical results are known for special structures in which all individuals have the same number of neighbours. The general case, in which the number of neighbours can vary, has remained open. For arbitrary selection intensity, the problem is in a computational complexity class that suggests there is no efficient algorithm. Whether a simple solution for weak selection exists has remained unanswered. Here we provide a solution for weak selection that applies to any graph or network. Our method relies on calculating the coalescence times of random walks. We evaluate large numbers of diverse population structures for their propensity to favour cooperation. We study how small changes in population structure—graph surgery—affect evolutionary outcomes. We find that cooperation flourishes most in societies that are based on strong pairwise ties.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

2015-01-01

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late

A Model for Teaching the Dynamical Theory of Tides.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Railsback, L. Bruce

1991-01-01

The dynamical theory of tides is often neglected in teaching oceanography because students have difficulty in visualizing the movements of the tides across the glove. A schematic diagram portraying amphidromic systems as mechanical gears helps overcome these problems. (Author)

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Development of a dynamic framework to explain population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Garcia, Leandro M T; Diez Roux, Ana V; Martins, André C R; Yang, Yong; Florindo, Alex A

2017-08-22

Despite the increasing body of evidences on the factors influencing leisure-time physical activity, our understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that lead to the formation and evolution of population patterns is still limited. Moreover, most frameworks in this field fail to capture dynamic processes. Our aim was to create a dynamic conceptual model depicting the interaction between key psychological attributes of individuals and main aspects of the built and social environments in which they live. This conceptual model will inform and support the development of an agent-based model aimed to explore how population patterns of LTPA in adults may emerge from the dynamic interplay between psychological traits and built and social environments. We integrated existing theories and models as well as available empirical data (both from literature reviews), and expert opinions (based on a systematic expert assessment of an intermediary version of the model). The model explicitly presents intention as the proximal determinant of leisure-time physical activity, a relationship dynamically moderated by the built environment (access, quality, and available activities) - with the strength of the moderation varying as a function of the person's intention- and influenced both by the social environment (proximal network's and community's behavior) and the person's behavior. Our conceptual model is well supported by evidence and experts' opinions and will inform the design of our agent-based model, as well as data collection and analysis of future investigations on population patterns of leisure-time physical activity among adults.

The replicator equation and other game dynamics

PubMed Central

Cressman, Ross; Tao, Yi

2014-01-01

The replicator equation is the first and most important game dynamics studied in connection with evolutionary game theory. It was originally developed for symmetric games with finitely many strategies. Properties of these dynamics are briefly summarized for this case, including the convergence to and stability of the Nash equilibria and evolutionarily stable strategies. The theory is then extended to other game dynamics for symmetric games (e.g., the best response dynamics and adaptive dynamics) and illustrated by examples taken from the literature. It is also extended to multiplayer, population, and asymmetric games. PMID:25024202

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Nonperturbative study of dynamical SUSY breaking in N =(2 ,2 ) Yang-Mills theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catterall, Simon; Jha, Raghav G.; Joseph, Anosh

2018-03-01

We examine the possibility of dynamical supersymmetry breaking in two-dimensional N =(2 ,2 ) supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory. The theory is discretized on a Euclidean spacetime lattice using a supersymmetric lattice action. We compute the vacuum energy of the theory at finite temperature and take the zero-temperature limit. Supersymmetry will be spontaneously broken in this theory if the measured ground-state energy is nonzero. By performing simulations on a range of lattices up to 96 ×96 we are able to perform a careful extrapolation to the continuum limit for a wide range of temperatures. Subsequent extrapolations to the zero-temperature limit yield an upper bound on the ground-state energy density. We find the energy density to be statistically consistent with zero in agreement with the absence of dynamical supersymmetry breaking in this theory.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

2018-04-01

How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning

PubMed Central

Dann, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity. PMID:27814352

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

PubMed

Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

2016-11-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a Markovian environment: A theory and an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.R.

1975-01-01

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a Markovian (stochastic, serially correlated) environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important special cases as simplifications. Extensive empirical data on the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used as an example of general theory. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. A general mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. The literature and analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, two hypotheses were explored: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, and (2) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under the rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. If we assume that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality in Mallards, then optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slight concave function of the environmental conditions. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the Mallard breeding population. Dynamic programming is suggested as a very general

Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

PubMed Central

Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

2002-01-01

We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

Spatial dynamics of invasion: the geometry of introduced species.

PubMed

Korniss, Gyorgy; Caraco, Thomas

2005-03-07

Many exotic species combine low probability of establishment at each introduction with rapid population growth once introduction does succeed. To analyse this phenomenon, we note that invaders often cluster spatially when rare, and consequently an introduced exotic's population dynamics should depend on locally structured interactions. Ecological theory for spatially structured invasion relies on deterministic approximations, and determinism does not address the observed uncertainty of the exotic-introduction process. We take a new approach to the population dynamics of invasion and, by extension, to the general question of invasibility in any spatial ecology. We apply the physical theory for nucleation of spatial systems to a lattice-based model of competition between plant species, a resident and an invader, and the analysis reaches conclusions that differ qualitatively from the standard ecological theories. Nucleation theory distinguishes between dynamics of single- and multi-cluster invasion. Low introduction rates and small system size produce single-cluster dynamics, where success or failure of introduction is inherently stochastic. Single-cluster invasion occurs only if the cluster reaches a critical size, typically preceded by a number of failed attempts. For this case, we identify the functional form of the probability distribution of time elapsing until invasion succeeds. Although multi-cluster invasion for sufficiently large systems exhibits spatial averaging and almost-deterministic dynamics of the global densities, an analytical approximation from nucleation theory, known as Avrami's law, describes our simulation results far better than standard ecological approximations.

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

2015-10-22

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

Dynamic range adaptation in primary motor cortical populations

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Robert G; Schwartz, Andrew; Chase, Steven M

2017-01-01

Neural populations from various sensory regions demonstrate dynamic range adaptation in response to changes in the statistical distribution of their input stimuli. These adaptations help optimize the transmission of information about sensory inputs. Here, we show a similar effect in the firing rates of primary motor cortical cells. We trained monkeys to operate a brain-computer interface in both two- and three-dimensional virtual environments. We found that neurons in primary motor cortex exhibited a change in the amplitude of their directional tuning curves between the two tasks. We then leveraged the simultaneous nature of the recordings to test several hypotheses about the population-based mechanisms driving these changes and found that the results are most consistent with dynamic range adaptation. Our results demonstrate that dynamic range adaptation is neither limited to sensory regions nor to rescaling of monotonic stimulus intensity tuning curves, but may rather represent a canonical feature of neural encoding. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21409.001 PMID:28417848

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2001-01-01

Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

Dynamical mean-field theory, density-matrix embedding theory, and rotationally invariant slave bosons: A unified perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayral, Thomas; Lee, Tsung-Han; Kotliar, Gabriel

2017-12-01

We present a unified perspective on dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT), density-matrix embedding theory (DMET), and rotationally invariant slave bosons (RISB). We show that DMET can be regarded as a simplification of the RISB method where the quasiparticle weight is set to unity. This relation makes it easy to transpose extensions of a given method to another: For instance, a temperature-dependent version of RISB can be used to derive a temperature-dependent free-energy formula for DMET.

Coalescent Theory Analysis of Population Collapse and Recovery in a Neutral Evolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Dawn; Bahar, Sonya

As we move through the Anthropocene Epoch, human-driven climate change is predicted to accelerate extinction risk in the near future. Therefore, understanding basic underlying mechanisms of population loss and recovery could be paramount to saving key species in changing ecosystems. Here, we present an evolutionary model that investigates the dynamics of population collapse and recovery following a simulated mass extinction. Previously, we have shown that nonequilibrium, continuous phase transitions of the directed percolation universality class occur as a function of two different control parameters: the mutability, μ, which dictates how phenotypically different an offspring can be from its parent, and the death probability, δ, which probabilistically removes organisms within each generation. Here, we characterize the phylogenetic tree structures at two levels of biological organization--the organism and species level. Using methods from coalescent theory, we examine the phylogenetic tree structures at, and above, criticality, by considering common descent. The times to most recent common ancestor show phase transition behavior, as well as scale-free branching behavior at both levels of organization. We further examine these genealogical structures pre- and post-extinction. This research was supported by funding from the James S. McDonnell Foundation.

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

Neural dynamic optimization for control systems.II. Theory.

PubMed

Seong, C Y; Widrow, B

2001-01-01

The paper presents neural dynamic optimization (NDO) as a method of optimal feedback control for nonlinear multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) systems. The main feature of NDO is that it enables neural networks to approximate the optimal feedback solution whose existence dynamic programming (DP) justifies, thereby reducing the complexities of computation and storage problems of the classical methods such as DP. This paper mainly describes the theory of NDO, while the two other companion papers of this topic explain the background for the development of NDO and demonstrate the method with several applications including control of autonomous vehicles and of a robot arm, respectively.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

PubMed

Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N

2015-11-01

Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

Evolutionary behaviour, trade-offs and cyclic and chaotic population dynamics.

PubMed

Hoyle, Andy; Bowers, Roger G; White, Andy

2011-05-01

Many studies of the evolution of life-history traits assume that the underlying population dynamical attractor is stable point equilibrium. However, evolutionary outcomes can change significantly in different circumstances. We present an analysis based on adaptive dynamics of a discrete-time demographic model involving a trade-off whose shape is also an important determinant of evolutionary behaviour. We derive an explicit expression for the fitness in the cyclic region and consequently present an adaptive dynamic analysis which is algebraic. We do this fully in the region of 2-cycles and (using a symbolic package) almost fully for 4-cycles. Simulations illustrate and verify our results. With equilibrium population dynamics, trade-offs with accelerating costs produce a continuously stable strategy (CSS) whereas trade-offs with decelerating costs produce a non-ES repellor. The transition to 2-cycles produces a discontinuous change: the appearance of an intermediate region in which branching points occur. The size of this region decreases as we move through the region of 2-cycles. There is a further discontinuous fall in the size of the branching region during the transition to 4-cycles. We extend our results numerically and with simulations to higher-period cycles and chaos. Simulations show that chaotic population dynamics can evolve from equilibrium and vice-versa.

Gaussian Accelerated Molecular Dynamics: Theory, Implementation, and Applications

PubMed Central

Miao, Yinglong; McCammon, J. Andrew

2018-01-01

A novel Gaussian Accelerated Molecular Dynamics (GaMD) method has been developed for simultaneous unconstrained enhanced sampling and free energy calculation of biomolecules. Without the need to set predefined reaction coordinates, GaMD enables unconstrained enhanced sampling of the biomolecules. Furthermore, by constructing a boost potential that follows a Gaussian distribution, accurate reweighting of GaMD simulations is achieved via cumulant expansion to the second order. The free energy profiles obtained from GaMD simulations allow us to identify distinct low energy states of the biomolecules and characterize biomolecular structural dynamics quantitatively. In this chapter, we present the theory of GaMD, its implementation in the widely used molecular dynamics software packages (AMBER and NAMD), and applications to the alanine dipeptide biomolecular model system, protein folding, biomolecular large-scale conformational transitions and biomolecular recognition. PMID:29720925

[Dynamic paradigm in psychopathology: "chaos theory", from physics to psychiatry].

PubMed

Pezard, L; Nandrino, J L

2001-01-01

For the last thirty years, progress in the field of physics, known as "Chaos theory"--or more precisely: non-linear dynamical systems theory--has increased our understanding of complex systems dynamics. This framework's formalism is general enough to be applied in other domains, such as biology or psychology, where complex systems are the rule rather than the exception. Our goal is to show here that this framework can become a valuable tool in scientific fields such as neuroscience and psychiatry where objects possess natural time dependency (i.e. dynamical properties) and non-linear characteristics. The application of non-linear dynamics concepts on these topics is more precise than a loose metaphor and can throw a new light on mental functioning and dysfunctioning. A class of neural networks (recurrent neural networks) constitutes an example of the implementation of the dynamical system concept and provides models of cognitive processes (15). The state of activity of the network is represented in its state space and the time evolution of this state is a trajectory in this space. After a period of time those networks settle on an equilibrium (a kind of attractor). The strength of connections between neurons define the number and relations between those attractors. The attractors of the network are usually interpreted as "mental representations". When an initial condition is imposed to the network, the evolution towards an attractor is considered as a model of information processing (27). This information processing is not defined in a symbolic manner but is a result of the interaction between distributed elements. Several properties of dynamical models can be used to define a way where the symbolic properties emerge from physical and dynamical properties (28) and thus they can be candidates for the definition of the emergence of mental properties on the basis of neuronal dynamics (42). Nevertheless, mental properties can also be considered as the result of an

[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

PubMed

Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

2014-09-01

Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

Stochastic queueing-theory approach to human dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walraevens, Joris; Demoor, Thomas; Maertens, Tom; Bruneel, Herwig

2012-02-01

Recently, numerous studies have shown that human dynamics cannot be described accurately by exponential laws. For instance, Barabási [Nature (London)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature03459 435, 207 (2005)] demonstrates that waiting times of tasks to be performed by a human are more suitably modeled by power laws. He presumes that these power laws are caused by a priority selection mechanism among the tasks. Priority models are well-developed in queueing theory (e.g., for telecommunication applications), and this paper demonstrates the (quasi-)immediate applicability of such a stochastic priority model to human dynamics. By calculating generating functions and by studying them in their dominant singularity, we prove that nonexponential tails result naturally. Contrary to popular belief, however, these are not necessarily triggered by the priority selection mechanism.

Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

PubMed

Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

2018-12-01

An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

Psychology and social networks: a dynamic network theory perspective.

PubMed

Westaby, James D; Pfaff, Danielle L; Redding, Nicholas

2014-04-01

Research on social networks has grown exponentially in recent years. However, despite its relevance, the field of psychology has been relatively slow to explain the underlying goal pursuit and resistance processes influencing social networks in the first place. In this vein, this article aims to demonstrate how a dynamic network theory perspective explains the way in which social networks influence these processes and related outcomes, such as goal achievement, performance, learning, and emotional contagion at the interpersonal level of analysis. The theory integrates goal pursuit, motivation, and conflict conceptualizations from psychology with social network concepts from sociology and organizational science to provide a taxonomy of social network role behaviors, such as goal striving, system supporting, goal preventing, system negating, and observing. This theoretical perspective provides psychologists with new tools to map social networks (e.g., dynamic network charts), which can help inform the development of change interventions. Implications for social, industrial-organizational, and counseling psychology as well as conflict resolution are discussed, and new opportunities for research are highlighted, such as those related to dynamic network intelligence (also known as cognitive accuracy), levels of analysis, methodological/ethical issues, and the need to theoretically broaden the study of social networking and social media behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history.

PubMed

Coulson, Tim; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Douglas W

2011-12-02

Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.

Dynamical mean-field theory, density-matrix embedding theory, and rotationally invariant slave bosons: A unified perspective

DOE PAGES

Ayral, Thomas; Lee, Tsung-Han; Kotliar, Gabriel

2017-12-26

In this paper, we present a unified perspective on dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT), density-matrix embedding theory (DMET), and rotationally invariant slave bosons (RISB). We show that DMET can be regarded as a simplification of the RISB method where the quasiparticle weight is set to unity. Finally, this relation makes it easy to transpose extensions of a given method to another: For instance, a temperature-dependent version of RISB can be used to derive a temperature-dependent free-energy formula for DMET.

Dynamical mean-field theory, density-matrix embedding theory, and rotationally invariant slave bosons: A unified perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ayral, Thomas; Lee, Tsung-Han; Kotliar, Gabriel

In this paper, we present a unified perspective on dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT), density-matrix embedding theory (DMET), and rotationally invariant slave bosons (RISB). We show that DMET can be regarded as a simplification of the RISB method where the quasiparticle weight is set to unity. Finally, this relation makes it easy to transpose extensions of a given method to another: For instance, a temperature-dependent version of RISB can be used to derive a temperature-dependent free-energy formula for DMET.

Dynamic phase transitions and dynamic phase diagrams of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model in an oscillating field: the effective-field theory based on the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertaş, Mehmet; Keskin, Mustafa

2015-06-01

Using the effective-field theory based on the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics (DEFT), we investigate dynamic phase transitions and dynamic phase diagrams of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model under an oscillating magnetic field. We presented the dynamic phase diagrams in (T/J, h0/J), (D/J, T/J) and (K/J, T/J) planes, where T, h0, D, K and z are the temperature, magnetic field amplitude, crystal-field interaction, biquadratic interaction and the coordination number. The dynamic phase diagrams exhibit several ordered phases, coexistence phase regions and special critical points, as well as re-entrant behavior depending on interaction parameters. We also compare and discuss the results with the results of the same system within the mean-field theory based on the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics and find that some of the dynamic first-order phase lines and special dynamic critical points disappeared in the DEFT calculation.

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

PubMed

Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

A Dynamic Ensemble for Second Language Research: Putting Complexity Theory into Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hiver, Phil; Al-Hoorie, Ali H.

2016-01-01

In this article, we introduce a template of methodological considerations, termed "the dynamic ensemble," for scholars doing or evaluating empirical second language development (SLD) research within a complexity/dynamic systems theory (CDST) framework. Given that CDST principles have yielded significant insight into SLD and have become…

Digital Quantum Simulation of Z2 Lattice Gauge Theories with Dynamical Fermionic Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohar, Erez; Farace, Alessandro; Reznik, Benni; Cirac, J. Ignacio

2017-02-01

We propose a scheme for digital quantum simulation of lattice gauge theories with dynamical fermions. Using a layered optical lattice with ancilla atoms that can move and interact with the other atoms (simulating the physical degrees of freedom), we obtain a stroboscopic dynamics which yields the four-body plaquette interactions, arising in models with (2 +1 ) and higher dimensions, without the use of perturbation theory. As an example we show how to simulate a Z2 model in (2 +1 ) dimensions.

Digital Quantum Simulation of Z_{2} Lattice Gauge Theories with Dynamical Fermionic Matter.

PubMed

Zohar, Erez; Farace, Alessandro; Reznik, Benni; Cirac, J Ignacio

2017-02-17

We propose a scheme for digital quantum simulation of lattice gauge theories with dynamical fermions. Using a layered optical lattice with ancilla atoms that can move and interact with the other atoms (simulating the physical degrees of freedom), we obtain a stroboscopic dynamics which yields the four-body plaquette interactions, arising in models with (2+1) and higher dimensions, without the use of perturbation theory. As an example we show how to simulate a Z_{2} model in (2+1) dimensions.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

Rotorcraft control system design for uncertain vehicle dynamics using quantitative feedback theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1994-01-01

Quantitative Feedback Theory describes a frequency-domain technique for the design of multi-input, multi-output control systems which must meet time or frequency domain performance criteria when specified uncertainty exists in the linear description of the vehicle dynamics. This theory is applied to the design of the longitudinal flight control system for a linear model of the BO-105C rotorcraft. Uncertainty in the vehicle model is due to the variation in the vehicle dynamics over a range of airspeeds from 0-100 kts. For purposes of exposition, the vehicle description contains no rotor or actuator dynamics. The design example indicates the manner in which significant uncertainty exists in the vehicle model. The advantage of using a sequential loop closure technique to reduce the cost of feedback is demonstrated by example.

Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

PubMed

Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

2018-05-07

When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

2013-01-01

Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

On Flexible Tubes Conveying Fluid: Geometric Nonlinear Theory, Stability and Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay-Balmaz, François; Putkaradze, Vakhtang

2015-08-01

We derive a fully three-dimensional, geometrically exact theory for flexible tubes conveying fluid. The theory also incorporates the change of the cross section available to the fluid motion during the dynamics. Our approach is based on the symmetry-reduced, exact geometric description for elastic rods, coupled with the fluid transport and subject to the volume conservation constraint for the fluid. We first derive the equations of motion directly, by using an Euler-Poincaré variational principle. We then justify this derivation with a more general theory elucidating the interesting mathematical concepts appearing in this problem, such as partial left (elastic) and right (fluid) invariance of the system, with the added holonomic constraint (volume). We analyze the fully nonlinear behavior of the model when the axis of the tube remains straight. We then proceed to the linear stability analysis and show that our theory introduces important corrections to previously derived results, both in the consistency at all wavelength and in the effects arising from the dynamical change of the cross section. Finally, we derive and analyze several analytical, fully nonlinear solutions of traveling wave type in two dimensions.

General framework for fluctuating dynamic density functional theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán-Olivencia, Miguel A.; Yatsyshin, Peter; Goddard, Benjamin D.; Kalliadasis, Serafim

2017-12-01

We introduce a versatile bottom-up derivation of a formal theoretical framework to describe (passive) soft-matter systems out of equilibrium subject to fluctuations. We provide a unique connection between the constituent-particle dynamics of real systems and the time evolution equation of their measurable (coarse-grained) quantities, such as local density and velocity. The starting point is the full Hamiltonian description of a system of colloidal particles immersed in a fluid of identical bath particles. Then, we average out the bath via Zwanzig’s projection-operator techniques and obtain the stochastic Langevin equations governing the colloidal-particle dynamics. Introducing the appropriate definition of the local number and momentum density fields yields a generalisation of the Dean-Kawasaki (DK) model, which resembles the stochastic Navier-Stokes description of a fluid. Nevertheless, the DK equation still contains all the microscopic information and, for that reason, does not represent the dynamical law of observable quantities. We address this controversial feature of the DK description by carrying out a nonequilibrium ensemble average. Adopting a natural decomposition into local-equilibrium and nonequilibrium contribution, where the former is related to a generalised version of the canonical distribution, we finally obtain the fluctuating-hydrodynamic equation governing the time-evolution of the mesoscopic density and momentum fields. Along the way, we outline the connection between the ad hoc energy functional introduced in previous DK derivations and the free-energy functional from classical density-functional theory. The resultant equation has the structure of a dynamical density-functional theory (DDFT) with an additional fluctuating force coming from the random interactions with the bath. We show that our fluctuating DDFT formalism corresponds to a particular version of the fluctuating Navier-Stokes equations, originally derived by Landau and Lifshitz

Graph Theory-Based Pinning Synchronization of Stochastic Complex Dynamical Networks.

PubMed

Li, Xiao-Jian; Yang, Guang-Hong

2017-02-01

This paper is concerned with the adaptive pinning synchronization problem of stochastic complex dynamical networks (CDNs). Based on algebraic graph theory and Lyapunov theory, pinning controller design conditions are derived, and the rigorous convergence analysis of synchronization errors in the probability sense is also conducted. Compared with the existing results, the topology structures of stochastic CDN are allowed to be unknown due to the use of graph theory. In particular, it is shown that the selection of nodes for pinning depends on the unknown lower bounds of coupling strengths. Finally, an example on a Chua's circuit network is given to validate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Complexity, Chaos, and Nonlinear Dynamics: A New Perspective on Career Development Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bloch, Deborah P.

2005-01-01

The author presents a theory of career development drawing on nonlinear dynamics and chaos and complexity theories. Career is presented as a complex adaptive entity, a fractal of the human entity. Characteristics of complex adaptive entities, including (a) autopiesis, or self-regeneration; (b) open exchange; (c) participation in networks; (d)…

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

2008-01-01

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Neutral theory, microbial practice: challenges in bacterial population genetics.

PubMed

Rocha, Eduardo P C

2018-04-19

Kimura's outstanding contributions to population genetics included many elegant theoretical results on the vagaries of alleles in populations. Once polymorphism data showed extensive variation in natural populations, these results led naturally to the Neutral Theory. In this article, I'll depart from some of these results to focus on four major open problems in microbial population genetics with direct implications to the study of molecular evolution: the lack of neutral polymorphism, the modeling of genetic exchanges, the population genetics of ill-defined populations, and the difficulty of untangling selection and demography in the light of the previous issues. Whilst studies in population genetics usually focus on single nucleotide polymorphism and allelic recombination, ignoring even small indels, a large fraction of genetic diversification in Bacteria results from horizontal gene transfer. Ignoring this fact defeats the purpose of population genetics: to characterize the genetic variation in populations and their adaptive effects. I'll argue that, following on Kimura's life work, one may need to develop new approaches to study microbes that reproduce asexually but are able to engage in gene exchanges with very distantly related organisms in a context where random sampling is often unachievable, populations are ill-defined, genetic linkage is strong, and random drift is rare.

Does the continuum theory of dynamic fracture work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessler, David A.; Levine, Herbert

2003-09-01

We investigate the validity of the linear elastic fracture mechanics approach to dynamic fracture. We first test the predictions in a lattice simulation, using a formula of Eshelby for the time-dependent stress intensity factor. Excellent agreement with the theory is found. We then use the same method to analyze the experiment of Sharon and Fineberg. The data here are not consistent with the theoretical expectation.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

PubMed Central

Sabes, Philip N.

2015-01-01

Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

Theory of time-averaged neutral dynamics with environmental stochasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danino, Matan; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2018-04-01

Competition is the main driver of population dynamics, which shapes the genetic composition of populations and the assembly of ecological communities. Neutral models assume that all the individuals are equivalent and that the dynamics is governed by demographic (shot) noise, with a steady state species abundance distribution (SAD) that reflects a mutation-extinction equilibrium. Recently, many empirical and theoretical studies emphasized the importance of environmental variations that affect coherently the relative fitness of entire populations. Here we consider two generic time-averaged neutral models; in both the relative fitness of each species fluctuates independently in time but its mean is zero. The first (model A) describes a system with local competition and linear fitness dependence of the birth-death rates, while in the second (model B) the competition is global and the fitness dependence is nonlinear. Due to this nonlinearity, model B admits a noise-induced stabilization mechanism that facilitates the invasion of new mutants. A self-consistent mean-field approach is used to reduce the multispecies problem to two-species dynamics, and the large-N asymptotics of the emerging set of Fokker-Planck equations is presented and solved. Our analytic expressions are shown to fit the SADs obtained from extensive Monte Carlo simulations and from numerical solutions of the corresponding master equations.

Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

PubMed

Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

2010-07-27

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

Dynamic kinetic energy potential for orbital-free density functional theory.

PubMed

Neuhauser, Daniel; Pistinner, Shlomo; Coomar, Arunima; Zhang, Xu; Lu, Gang

2011-04-14

A dynamic kinetic energy potential (DKEP) is developed for time-dependent orbital-free (TDOF) density function theory applications. This potential is constructed to affect only the dynamical (ω ≠ 0) response of an orbital-free electronic system. It aims at making the orbital-free simulation respond in the same way as that of a noninteracting homogenous electron gas (HEG), as required by a correct kinetic energy, therefore enabling extension of the success of orbital-free density functional theory in the static case (e.g., for embedding and description of processes in bulk materials) to dynamic processes. The potential is constructed by expansions of terms, each of which necessitates only simple time evolution (concurrent with the TDOF evolution) and a spatial convolution at each time-step. With 14 such terms a good fit is obtained to the response of the HEG at a large range of frequencies, wavevectors, and densities. The method is demonstrated for simple jellium spheres, approximating Na(9)(+) and Na(65)(+) clusters. It is applicable both to small and large (even ultralarge) excitations and the results converge (i.e., do not blow up) as a function of time. An extension to iterative frequency-resolved extraction is briefly outlined, as well as possibly numerically simpler expansions. The approach could also be extended to fit, instead of the HEG susceptibility, either an experimental susceptibility or a theoretically derived one for a non-HEG system. The DKEP potential should be a powerful tool for embedding a dynamical system described by a more accurate method (such as time-dependent density functional theory, TDDFT) in a large background described by TDOF with a DKEP potential. The type of expansions used and envisioned should be useful for other approaches, such as memory functionals in TDDFT. Finally, an appendix details the formal connection between TDOF and TDDFT.

Peptide dynamics by molecular dynamics simulation and diffusion theory method with improved basis sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsu, Po Jen; Lai, S. K., E-mail: sklai@coll.phy.ncu.edu.tw; Rapallo, Arnaldo

Improved basis sets for the study of polymer dynamics by means of the diffusion theory, and tests on a melt of cis-1,4-polyisoprene decamers, and a toluene solution of a 71-mer syndiotactic trans-1,2-polypentadiene were presented recently [R. Gaspari and A. Rapallo, J. Chem. Phys. 128, 244109 (2008)]. The proposed hybrid basis approach (HBA) combined two techniques, the long time sorting procedure and the maximum correlation approximation. The HBA takes advantage of the strength of these two techniques, and its basis sets proved to be very effective and computationally convenient in describing both local and global dynamics in cases of flexible syntheticmore » polymers where the repeating unit is a unique type of monomer. The question then arises if the same efficacy continues when the HBA is applied to polymers of different monomers, variable local stiffness along the chain and with longer persistence length, which have different local and global dynamical properties against the above-mentioned systems. Important examples of this kind of molecular chains are the proteins, so that a fragment of the protein transthyretin is chosen as the system of the present study. This peptide corresponds to a sequence that is structured in β-sheets of the protein and is located on the surface of the channel with thyroxin. The protein transthyretin forms amyloid fibrils in vivo, whereas the peptide fragment has been shown [C. P. Jaroniec, C. E. MacPhee, N. S. Astrof, C. M. Dobson, and R. G. Griffin, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, 16748 (2002)] to form amyloid fibrils in vitro in extended β-sheet conformations. For these reasons the latter is given considerable attention in the literature and studied also as an isolated fragment in water solution where both experimental and theoretical efforts have indicated the propensity of the system to form β turns or α helices, but is otherwise predominantly unstructured. Differing from previous computational studies that employed

A Dynamic Systems Theory Model of Visual Perception Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coté, Carol A.

2015-01-01

This article presents a model for understanding the development of visual perception from a dynamic systems theory perspective. It contrasts to a hierarchical or reductionist model that is often found in the occupational therapy literature. In this proposed model vision and ocular motor abilities are not foundational to perception, they are seen…

Defending Qualitative Change: The View from Dynamical Systems Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, John P.; Perone, Sammy

2008-01-01

A central controversy in developmental science, enflamed by nativist accounts, is whether development is best viewed as a series of qualitative or continuous changes. This article defends the notion of qualitative change from the perspective of dynamical systems theory (DST). Qualitative change within DST refers to the shift that occurs when a…

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

2012-02-01

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

PubMed Central

Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

2016-01-01

Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

2013-01-01

Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

Applying Theory across Settings, Behaviors and Populations: Translational Challenges and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Mermelstein, Robin J.; Revenson, Tracey A.

2013-01-01

Basic social psychological theories have much to contribute to our understanding of health problems and health-related behaviors and may provide potential avenues for intervention development. However, for these theories to have broader reach and applicability to the field of health psychology, more work needs to be done in integrating contexts into these theories and addressing more specifically their application across settings, behaviors, and populations. We argue that integration of these theories into a broader multi-disciplinary and multi-level ecological framework is needed to enhance their translation into real-world applications. To enhance this translation, we make several recommendations, including breaking down silos between disciplinary perspectives and enhancing bidirectional communication and translation; analyzing boundary conditions of theories; expanding research approaches to move outside the laboratory and maintain a focus on external validity; and conducting efficacy testing of theories with meaningful, relevant endpoints. PMID:23646843

Applying theory across settings, behaviors, and populations: translational challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Mermelstein, Robin J; Revenson, Tracey A

2013-05-01

Basic social psychological theories have much to contribute to our understanding of health problems and health-related behaviors and may provide potential avenues for intervention development. However, for these theories to have broader reach and applicability to the field of health psychology, more work needs to be done in integrating contexts into these theories and addressing more specifically their application across settings, behaviors, and populations. We argue that integration of these theories into a broader multidisciplinary and multilevel ecological framework is needed to enhance their translation into real-world applications. To enhance this translation, we make several recommendations, including breaking down silos between disciplinary perspectives and enhancing bidirectional communication and translation; analyzing boundary conditions of theories; expanding research approaches to move outside the laboratory and maintain a focus on external validity; and conducting efficacy testing of theories with meaningful, relevant endpoints. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Cosner, Chris; Obaza, Adam; Jopp, Fred

2010-01-01

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the reaction-diffusion mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first--the 'refuge mechanism--hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the 'dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism' is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Boltzmann, Darwin and Directionality theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demetrius, Lloyd A.

2013-09-01

Boltzmann’s statistical thermodynamics is a mathematical theory which relates the macroscopic properties of aggregates of interacting molecules with the laws of their interaction. The theory is based on the concept thermodynamic entropy, a statistical measure of the extent to which energy is spread throughout macroscopic matter. Macroscopic evolution of material aggregates is quantitatively explained in terms of the principle: Thermodynamic entropy increases as the composition of the aggregate changes under molecular collision. Darwin’s theory of evolution is a qualitative theory of the origin of species and the adaptation of populations to their environment. A central concept in the theory is fitness, a qualitative measure of the capacity of an organism to contribute to the ancestry of future generations. Macroscopic evolution of populations of living organisms can be qualitatively explained in terms of a neo-Darwinian principle: Fitness increases as the composition of the population changes under variation and natural selection. Directionality theory is a quantitative model of the Darwinian argument of evolution by variation and selection. This mathematical theory is based on the concept evolutionary entropy, a statistical measure which describes the rate at which an organism appropriates energy from the environment and reinvests this energy into survivorship and reproduction. According to directionality theory, microevolutionary dynamics, that is evolution by mutation and natural selection, can be quantitatively explained in terms of a directionality principle: Evolutionary entropy increases when the resources are diverse and of constant abundance; but decreases when the resource is singular and of variable abundance. This report reviews the analytical and empirical support for directionality theory, and invokes the microevolutionary dynamics of variation and selection to delineate the principles which govern macroevolutionary dynamics of speciation and

Population clocks: motor timing with neural dynamics

PubMed Central

Buonomano, Dean V.; Laje, Rodrigo

2010-01-01

An understanding of sensory and motor processing will require elucidation of the mechanisms by which the brain tells time. Open questions relate to whether timing relies on dedicated or intrinsic mechanisms and whether distinct mechanisms underlie timing across scales and modalities. Although experimental and theoretical studies support the notion that neural circuits are intrinsically capable of sensory timing on short scales, few general models of motor timing have been proposed. For one class of models, population clocks, it is proposed that time is encoded in the time-varying patterns of activity of a population of neurons. We argue that population clocks emerge from the internal dynamics of recurrently connected networks, are biologically realistic and account for many aspects of motor timing. PMID:20889368

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crone, E.E.

1995-11-08

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{submore » t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.« less

EDITORIAL: Quantum control theory for coherence and information dynamics Quantum control theory for coherence and information dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Lorenza; Tannor, David

2011-08-01

tomography, which is a necessary 'primitive' for inferring the target quantum state and thereby diagnosing the control performance. Next, the impact of realistic control and system imperfections in continuous-time Markovian feedback strategies for rapid state preparation is analyzed by Combes and Wiseman. A prominent role is played in the special issue by optimal control (OC) approaches, reflecting their central importance for quantum control and QIP. The OC contributions have been divided into two separate sections, depending on whether the target dynamics is modeled as Hamiltonian (section 3) or dissipative (section 4), respectively. The contribution by Beltrani et al deals with `control landscapes', which provide a foundation for analyzing the performance of numerical OC algorithms and their robustness against control errors. Specifically, this paper characterizes geometric properties of the control landscape, relevant to the optimal control of state-to-state transitions. Application of OC theory to the problem of population transfer and coherence enhancement in Λ-systems is studied by Kumar et al, whereas Goerz et al report on the OC-design of a high-fidelity controlled phase-gate in atomic qubits. The robustness of an OC solution is specifically addressed by Negretti et al, along with an approach for identifying easily implementable while still 'close-to-optimal' control pulses. Powerful relaxation-optimized OC schemes (based on so-called opengrape algorithms) for generating unitary target gates in the presence of known dissipation parameters are discussed by Schulte-Herbrüggen et al. Next, Lapert et al report on the problem of time-optimal control of spin-1/2 systems undergoing Bloch relaxation dynamics, highlighting the crucial role played by singular extremals in the control synthesis. Alternative approaches for optimized control of qubits exposed to various decoherence processes are developed by Esher et al and Xue et al, based on a perturbative 'bath

Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

PubMed

van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

2011-03-21

Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

Modelling Multi-Pulse Population Dynamics from Ultrafast Spectroscopy

PubMed Central

van Wilderen, Luuk J. G. W.; Lincoln, Craig N.; van Thor, Jasper J.

2011-01-01

Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

Galactic evolution. I - Single-zone models. [encompassing stellar evolution and gas-star dynamic theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thuan, T. X.; Hart, M. H.; Ostriker, J. P.

1975-01-01

The two basic approaches of physical theory required to calculate the evolution of a galactic system are considered, taking into account stellar evolution theory and the dynamics of a gas-star system. Attention is given to intrinsic (stellar) physics, extrinsic (dynamical) physics, and computations concerning the fractionation of an initial mass of gas into stars. The characteristics of a 'standard' model and its variants are discussed along with the results obtained with the aid of these models.

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

PubMed Central

Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

Statistical Mechanical Theory of Coupled Slow Dynamics in Glassy Polymer-Molecule Mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui; Schweizer, Kenneth

The microscopic Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation theory of activated relaxation in one-component supercooled liquids and glasses is generalized to polymer-molecule mixtures. The key idea is to account for dynamic coupling between molecule and polymer segment motion. For describing the molecule hopping event, a temporal casuality condition is formulated to self-consistently determine a dimensionless degree of matrix distortion relative to the molecule jump distance based on the concept of coupled dynamic free energies. Implementation for real materials employs an established Kuhn sphere model of the polymer liquid and a quantitative mapping to a hard particle reference system guided by the experimental equation-of-state. The theory makes predictions for the mixture dynamic shear modulus, activated relaxation time and diffusivity of both species, and mixture glass transition temperature as a function of molecule-Kuhn segment size ratio and attraction strength, composition and temperature. Model calculations illustrate the dynamical behavior in three distinct mixture regimes (fully miscible, bridging, clustering) controlled by the molecule-polymer interaction or chi-parameter. Applications to specific experimental systems will be discussed.

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Nonequilibrium Population Dynamics of Phenotype Conversion of Cancer Cells

PubMed Central

Zhou, Joseph Xu; Pisco, Angela Oliveira; Qian, Hong; Huang, Sui

2014-01-01

Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection) or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction). This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance. PMID:25438251

Mosquito populations dynamics associated with climate variations.

PubMed

Wilke, André Barretto Bruno; Medeiros-Sousa, Antônio Ralph; Ceretti-Junior, Walter; Marrelli, Mauro Toledo

2017-02-01

Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of numerous serious pathogens. Members of the Aedes and Culex genera, which include many important vectors of mosquito-borne diseases, are highly invasive and adapted to man-made environments. They are spread around the world involuntarily by humans and are highly adapted to urbanized environments, where they are exposed to climate-related abundance drivers. We investigated Culicidae fauna in two urban parks in the city of São Paulo to analyze the correlations between climatic variables and the population dynamics of mosquitoes in these urban areas. Mosquitoes were collected monthly over one year, and sampling sufficiency was evaluated after morphological identification of the specimens. The average monthly temperature and accumulated rainfall for the collection month and previous month were used to explain climate-related abundance drivers for the six most abundant species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Aedes fluviatilis, Aedes scapularis, Culex nigripalpus and Culex quinquefasciatus) and then analyzed using generalized linear statistical models and the Akaike Information Criteria corrected for small samples (AICc). The strength of evidence in favor of each model was evaluated using Akaike weights, and the explanatory model power was measured by McFadden's Pseudo-R 2 . Associations between climate and mosquito abundance were found in both parks, indicating that predictive models based on climate variables can provide important information on mosquito population dynamics. We also found that this association is species-dependent. Urbanization processes increase the abundance of a few mosquito species that are well adapted to man-made environments and some of which are important vectors of pathogens. Predictive models for abundance based on climate variables may help elucidate the population dynamics of urban mosquitoes and their impact on the risk of disease transmission, allowing better predictive scenarios to be

Numerical methods for solving moment equations in kinetic theory of neuronal network dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangan, Aaditya V.; Cai, David; Tao, Louis

2007-02-01

Recently developed kinetic theory and related closures for neuronal network dynamics have been demonstrated to be a powerful theoretical framework for investigating coarse-grained dynamical properties of neuronal networks. The moment equations arising from the kinetic theory are a system of (1 + 1)-dimensional nonlinear partial differential equations (PDE) on a bounded domain with nonlinear boundary conditions. The PDEs themselves are self-consistently specified by parameters which are functions of the boundary values of the solution. The moment equations can be stiff in space and time. Numerical methods are presented here for efficiently and accurately solving these moment equations. The essential ingredients in our numerical methods include: (i) the system is discretized in time with an implicit Euler method within a spectral deferred correction framework, therefore, the PDEs of the kinetic theory are reduced to a sequence, in time, of boundary value problems (BVPs) with nonlinear boundary conditions; (ii) a set of auxiliary parameters is introduced to recast the original BVP with nonlinear boundary conditions as BVPs with linear boundary conditions - with additional algebraic constraints on the auxiliary parameters; (iii) a careful combination of two Newton's iterates for the nonlinear BVP with linear boundary condition, interlaced with a Newton's iterate for solving the associated algebraic constraints is constructed to achieve quadratic convergence for obtaining the solutions with self-consistent parameters. It is shown that a simple fixed-point iteration can only achieve a linear convergence for the self-consistent parameters. The practicability and efficiency of our numerical methods for solving the moment equations of the kinetic theory are illustrated with numerical examples. It is further demonstrated that the moment equations derived from the kinetic theory of neuronal network dynamics can very well capture the coarse-grained dynamical properties of

Fixed points and limit cycles in the population dynamics of lysogenic viruses and their hosts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhenyu; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2010-07-01

Starting with stochastic rate equations for the fundamental interactions between microbes and their viruses, we derive a mean-field theory for the population dynamics of microbe-virus systems, including the effects of lysogeny. In the absence of lysogeny, our model is a generalization of that proposed phenomenologically by Weitz and Dushoff. In the presence of lysogeny, we analyze the possible states of the system, identifying a limit cycle, which we interpret physically. To test the robustness of our mean-field calculations to demographic fluctuations, we have compared our results with stochastic simulations using the Gillespie algorithm. Finally, we estimate the range of parameters that delineate the various steady states of our model.

Single-polymer dynamics under constraints: scaling theory and computer experiment.

PubMed

Milchev, Andrey

2011-03-16

The relaxation, diffusion and translocation dynamics of single linear polymer chains in confinement is briefly reviewed with emphasis on the comparison between theoretical scaling predictions and observations from experiment or, most frequently, from computer simulations. Besides cylindrical, spherical and slit-like constraints, related problems such as the chain dynamics in a random medium and the translocation dynamics through a nanopore are also considered. Another particular kind of confinement is imposed by polymer adsorption on attractive surfaces or selective interfaces--a short overview of single-chain dynamics is also contained in this survey. While both theory and numerical experiments consider predominantly coarse-grained models of self-avoiding linear chain molecules with typically Rouse dynamics, we also note some recent studies which examine the impact of hydrodynamic interactions on polymer dynamics in confinement. In all of the aforementioned cases we focus mainly on the consequences of imposed geometric restrictions on single-chain dynamics and try to check our degree of understanding by assessing the agreement between theoretical predictions and observations.

Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

PubMed

Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

2010-06-01

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

2014-08-01

Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

How institutional theory speaks to changes in organizational populations.

PubMed

Wells, R

2001-01-01

In this issue, Begun and Luke note striking variation in organizational arrangements across local health care markets and probe how characteristics of those markets affect shifts in organizational populations over time. This article contributes to this FORUM by focusing on how institutional theory's emphasis on the culturally mediated nature of organizational change speaks to the evolution of local market structures over time.

Macroparasite dynamics of migratory host populations.

PubMed

Peacock, Stephanie J; Bouhours, Juliette; Lewis, Mark A; Molnár, Péter K

2018-03-01

Spatial variability in host density is a key factor affecting disease dynamics of wildlife, and yet there are few spatially explicit models of host-macroparasite dynamics. This limits our understanding of parasitism in migratory hosts, whose densities change considerably in both space and time. In this paper, we develop a model for host-macroparasite dynamics that considers the directional movement of host populations and their associated parasites. We include spatiotemporal changes in the mean and variance in parasite burden per host, as well as parasite-mediated host mortality and parasite-mediated migratory ability. Reduced migratory ability with increasing parasitism results in heavily infested hosts halting their migration, and higher parasite burdens in stationary hosts than in moving hosts. Simulations reveal the potential for positive feedbacks between parasite-reduced migratory ability and increasing parasite burdens at infection hotspots, such as stopover sites, that may lead to parasite-induced migratory stalling. This framework could help understand how global change might influence wildlife disease via changes to migratory patterns and parasite demographic rates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

PubMed

Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

2006-11-01

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis

The applications of Complexity Theory and Tsallis Non-extensive Statistics at Solar Plasma Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlos, George

2015-04-01

As the solar plasma lives far from equilibrium it is an excellent laboratory for testing complexity theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. In this study, we present the highlights of complexity theory and Tsallis non extensive statistical mechanics as concerns their applications at solar plasma dynamics, especially at sunspot, solar flare and solar wind phenomena. Generally, when a physical system is driven far from equilibrium states some novel characteristics can be observed related to the nonlinear character of dynamics. Generally, the nonlinearity in space plasma dynamics can generate intermittent turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous diffusion process and strange topologies of stochastic space plasma fields (velocity and magnetic fields) caused by the strange dynamics and strange kinetics (Zaslavsky, 2002). In addition, according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004) the complex character of the space plasma system includes the existence of non-equilibrium (quasi)-stationary states (NESS) having the topology of a percolating fractal set. The stabilization of a system near the NESS is perceived as a transition into a turbulent state determined by self-organization processes. The long-range correlation effects manifest themselves as a strange non-Gaussian behavior of kinetic processes near the NESS plasma state. The complex character of space plasma can also be described by the non-extensive statistical thermodynamics pioneered by Tsallis, which offers a consistent and effective theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Boltzmann - Gibbs (BG) entropy, to describe far from equilibrium nonlinear complex dynamics (Tsallis, 2009). In a series of recent papers, the hypothesis of Tsallis non-extensive statistics in magnetosphere, sunspot dynamics, solar flares, solar wind and space plasma in general, was tested and verified (Karakatsanis et al., 2013; Pavlos et al., 2014; 2015). Our study includes the analysis of solar plasma time

Neutral Theory: From Complex Population History to Natural Selection and Sociocultural Phenomena in Human Populations.

PubMed

Austerlitz, Frédéric; Heyer, Evelyne

2018-06-01

Here, we present a synthetic view on how Kimura's Neutral theory has helped us gaining insight on the different evolutionary forces that shape human evolution. We put this perspective in the frame of recent emerging challenges: the use of whole genome data for reconstructing population histories, natural selection on complex polygenic traits, and integrating cultural processes in human evolution.

Kinetic theory molecular dynamics and hot dense matter: theoretical foundations.

PubMed

Graziani, F R; Bauer, J D; Murillo, M S

2014-09-01

Electrons are weakly coupled in hot, dense matter that is created in high-energy-density experiments. They are also mildly quantum mechanical and the ions associated with them are classical and may be strongly coupled. In addition, the dynamical evolution of plasmas under these hot, dense matter conditions involve a variety of transport and energy exchange processes. Quantum kinetic theory is an ideal tool for treating the electrons but it is not adequate for treating the ions. Molecular dynamics is perfectly suited to describe the classical, strongly coupled ions but not the electrons. We develop a method that combines a Wigner kinetic treatment of the electrons with classical molecular dynamics for the ions. We refer to this hybrid method as "kinetic theory molecular dynamics," or KTMD. The purpose of this paper is to derive KTMD from first principles and place it on a firm theoretical foundation. The framework that KTMD provides for simulating plasmas in the hot, dense regime is particularly useful since current computational methods are generally limited by their inability to treat the dynamical quantum evolution of the electronic component. Using the N-body von Neumann equation for the electron-proton plasma, three variations of KTMD are obtained. Each variant is determined by the physical state of the plasma (e.g., collisional versus collisionless). The first variant of KTMD yields a closed set of equations consisting of a mean-field quantum kinetic equation for the electron one-particle distribution function coupled to a classical Liouville equation for the protons. The latter equation includes both proton-proton Coulombic interactions and an effective electron-proton interaction that involves the convolution of the electron density with the electron-proton Coulomb potential. The mean-field approach is then extended to incorporate equilibrium electron-proton correlations through the Singwi-Tosi-Land-Sjolander (STLS) ansatz. This is the second variant of KTMD

Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

PubMed

Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

2016-02-01

Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Slow dynamics in glasses: A comparison between theory and experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, J. C.

Minimalist theories of complex systems are broadly of two kinds: mean field and axiomatic. So far, all theories of complex properties absent from simple systems and intrinsic to glasses are axiomatic. Stretched Exponential Relaxation (SER) is the prototypical complex temporal property of glasses, discovered by Kohlrausch 150 years ago, and now observed almost universally in microscopically homogeneous, complex nonequilibrium materials, including luminescent electronic Coulomb glasses. A critical comparison of alternative axiomatic theories with both numerical simulations and experiments strongly favors channeled dynamical trap models over static percolative or energy landscape models. The topics discussed cover those reported since the author'smore » review article in 1996, with an emphasis on parallels between channel bifurcation in electronic and molecular relaxation.« less

Dynamic density functional theory with hydrodynamic interactions and fluctuations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donev, Aleksandar, E-mail: donev@courant.nyu.edu; Vanden-Eijnden, Eric, E-mail: eve2@courant.nyu.edu

2014-06-21

We derive a closed equation for the empirical concentration of colloidal particles in the presence of both hydrodynamic and direct interactions. The ensemble average of our functional Langevin equation reproduces known deterministic Dynamic Density Functional Theory (DDFT) [M. Rex and H. Löwen, “Dynamical density functional theory with hydrodynamic interactions and colloids in unstable traps,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 101(14), 148302 (2008)], and, at the same time, it also describes the microscopic fluctuations around the mean behavior. We suggest separating the ideal (non-interacting) contribution from additional corrections due to pairwise interactions. We find that, for an incompressible fluid and in the absencemore » of direct interactions, the mean concentration follows Fick's law just as for uncorrelated walkers. At the same time, the nature of the stochastic terms in fluctuating DDFT is shown to be distinctly different for hydrodynamically-correlated and uncorrelated walkers. This leads to striking differences in the behavior of the fluctuations around Fick's law, even in the absence of pairwise interactions. We connect our own prior work [A. Donev, T. G. Fai, and E. Vanden-Eijnden, “A reversible mesoscopic model of diffusion in liquids: from giant fluctuations to Fick's law,” J. Stat. Mech.: Theory Exp. (2014) P04004] on fluctuating hydrodynamics of diffusion in liquids to the DDFT literature, and demonstrate that the fluid cannot easily be eliminated from consideration if one wants to describe the collective diffusion in colloidal suspensions.« less

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population

PubMed Central

Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

2016-01-01

Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002–2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

PubMed

García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

2014-12-21

Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

2018-05-01

We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

Thermospheric dynamics - A system theory approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Codrescu, M.; Forbes, J. M.; Roble, R. G.

1990-01-01

A system theory approach to thermospheric modeling is developed, based upon a linearization method which is capable of preserving nonlinear features of a dynamical system. The method is tested using a large, nonlinear, time-varying system, namely the thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In the linearized version an equivalent system, defined for one of the desired TGCM output variables, is characterized by a set of response functions that is constructed from corresponding quasi-steady state and unit sample response functions. The linearized version of the system runs on a personal computer and produces an approximation of the desired TGCM output field height profile at a given geographic location.

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Dynamic Assessment or Schema Theory: The Case of Listening Comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farangi, Mohamad Reza; Kheradmand Saadi, Zahra

2017-01-01

Not only is listening considered as an active skill nowadays, but also different approaches are suggested to incorporate it effectively into language classrooms. Our purpose, here, is to compare two approaches claiming to be effective in enhancing EFL learners' listening capabilities including schema theory and dynamic assessment. Through a…

A generalized population dynamics model for reproductive interference with absolute density dependence.

PubMed

Kyogoku, Daisuke; Sota, Teiji

2017-05-17

Interspecific mating interactions, or reproductive interference, can affect population dynamics, species distribution and abundance. Previous population dynamics models have assumed that the impact of frequency-dependent reproductive interference depends on the relative abundances of species. However, this assumption could be an oversimplification inappropriate for making quantitative predictions. Therefore, a more general model to forecast population dynamics in the presence of reproductive interference is required. Here we developed a population dynamics model to describe the absolute density dependence of reproductive interference, which appears likely when encounter rate between individuals is important. Our model (i) can produce diverse shapes of isoclines depending on parameter values and (ii) predicts weaker reproductive interference when absolute density is low. These novel characteristics can create conditions where coexistence is stable and independent from the initial conditions. We assessed the utility of our model in an empirical study using an experimental pair of seed beetle species, Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis. Reproductive interference became stronger with increasing total beetle density even when the frequencies of the two species were kept constant. Our model described the effects of absolute density and showed a better fit to the empirical data than the existing model overall.

Theoretical insights into the population viability of lynx [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Steven W. Buskirk; Charles J. Krebs

2000-01-01

We discuss ecological theory and population models pertinent to the population biology of southern lynx. Fragmented forest cover types, high vagility of lynx, and linkages in population dynamics suggest that lynx in the contiguous United States are arranged as metapopulations. Metapopulation stability depends on not only habitat quality but also dispersal...

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Treesearch

John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

2006-01-01

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

2016-10-01

In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

Catalytic dimer nanomotors: continuum theory and microscopic dynamics.

PubMed

Reigh, Shang Yik; Kapral, Raymond

2015-04-28

Synthetic chemically-powered motors with various geometries have potentially new applications involving dynamics on very small scales. Self-generated concentration and fluid flow fields, which depend on geometry, play essential roles in motor dynamics. Sphere-dimer motors, comprising linked catalytic and noncatalytic spheres, display more complex versions of such fields, compared to the often-studied spherical Janus motors. By making use of analytical continuum theory and particle-based simulations we determine the concentration fields, and both the complex structure of the near-field and point-force dipole nature of the far-field behavior of the solvent velocity field that are important for studies of collective motor motion. We derive the dependence of motor velocity on geometric factors such as sphere size and dimer bond length and, thus, show how to construct motors with specific characteristics.

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population

Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

PubMed Central

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

From 6D superconformal field theories to dynamic gauged linear sigma models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apruzzi, Fabio; Hassler, Falk; Heckman, Jonathan J.; Melnikov, Ilarion V.

2017-09-01

Compactifications of six-dimensional (6D) superconformal field theories (SCFTs) on four- manifolds generate a large class of novel two-dimensional (2D) quantum field theories. We consider in detail the case of the rank-one simple non-Higgsable cluster 6D SCFTs. On the tensor branch of these theories, the gauge group is simple and there are no matter fields. For compactifications on suitably chosen Kähler surfaces, we present evidence that this provides a method to realize 2D SCFTs with N =(0 ,2 ) supersymmetry. In particular, we find that reduction on the tensor branch of the 6D SCFT yields a description of the same 2D fixed point that is described in the UV by a gauged linear sigma model (GLSM) in which the parameters are promoted to dynamical fields, that is, a "dynamic GLSM" (DGLSM). Consistency of the model requires the DGLSM to be coupled to additional non-Lagrangian sectors obtained from reduction of the antichiral two-form of the 6D theory. These extra sectors include both chiral and antichiral currents, as well as spacetime filling noncritical strings of the 6D theory. For each candidate 2D SCFT, we also extract the left- and right-moving central charges in terms of data of the 6D SCFT and the compactification manifold.

Combining Density Functional Theory and Green's Function Theory: Range-Separated, Nonlocal, Dynamic, and Orbital-Dependent Hybrid Functional.

PubMed

Kananenka, Alexei A; Zgid, Dominika

2017-11-14

We present a rigorous framework which combines single-particle Green's function theory with density functional theory based on a separation of electron-electron interactions into short- and long-range components. Short-range contribution to the total energy and exchange-correlation potential is provided by a density functional approximation, while the long-range contribution is calculated using an explicit many-body Green's function method. Such a hybrid results in a nonlocal, dynamic, and orbital-dependent exchange-correlation functional of a single-particle Green's function. In particular, we present a range-separated hybrid functional called srSVWN5-lrGF2 which combines the local-density approximation and the second-order Green's function theory. We illustrate that similarly to density functional approximations, the new functional is weakly basis-set dependent. Furthermore, it offers an improved description of the short-range dynamic correlation. The many-body contribution to the functional mitigates the many-electron self-interaction error present in many density functional approximations and provides a better description of molecular properties. Additionally, we illustrate that the new functional can be used to scale down the self-energy and, therefore, introduce an additional sparsity to the self-energy matrix that in the future can be exploited in calculations for large molecules or periodic systems.

Theory of dynamic barriers, activated hopping, and the glass transition in polymer melts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, Kenneth S.; Saltzman, Erica J.

2004-07-01

A statistical mechanical theory of collective dynamic barriers, slow segmental relaxation, and the glass transition of polymer melts is developed by combining, and in some aspects extending, methods of mode coupling, density functional, and activated hopping transport theories. A coarse-grained description of polymer chains is adopted and the melt is treated as a liquid of segments. The theory is built on the idea that collective density fluctuations on length scales considerably longer than the local cage scale are of primary importance in the deeply supercooled regime. The barrier hopping or segmental relaxation time is predicted to be a function primarily of a single parameter that is chemical structure, temperature, and pressure dependent. This parameter depends on the material-specific dimensionless amplitude of thermal density fluctuations (compressibility) and a reduced segmental density determined by the packing length and backbone characteristic ratio. Analytic results are derived for a crossover temperature Tc, collective barrier, and glass transition temperature Tg. The relation of these quantities to structural and thermodynamic properties of the polymer melt is established. A universal power-law scaling behavior of the relaxation time below Tc is predicted based on identification of a reduced temperature variable that quantifies the breadth of the supercooled regime. Connections between the ratio Tc/Tg, two measures of dynamic fragility, and the magnitude of the local relaxation time at Tg logically follow. Excellent agreement with experiment is found for these generic aspects, and the crucial importance of the experimentally observed near universality of the dynamic crossover time is established. Extensions of the theory to treat the full chain dynamics, heterogeneity, barrier fluctuations, and nonpolymeric thermal glass forming liquids are briefly discussed.

Mapping entropy: Analysis of population-environment dynamics using integrated remote sensing and transition theory based on a general systems perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Sierra, Ruben Ulises

The present study introduces entropy mapping as a comprehensive method to analyze and describe complex interactive systems; and to assess the effect that entropy has in paradigm changes as described by transition theory. Dynamics of interactions among environmental, economic and demographic conditions affect a number of fast growing locations throughout the world. One of the regions especially affected by accelerated growth in terms of demographic and economic development is the border region between Mexico and the US. As the contrast between these countries provides a significant economic and cultural differential, the dynamics of capital, goods, services and people and the rates at which they interact are rather unique. To illustrate the most fundamental economic and political changes affecting the region, a background addressing the causes for these changes leading to the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is presented. Although the concept of thermodynamic entropy was first observed in physical sciences, a relevant homology exists in biological, social and economic sciences as the universal tendency towards disorder, dissipation and equilibrium is present in these disciplines when energy or resources become deficient. Furthermore, information theory is expressed as uncertainty and randomness in terms of efficiency in transmission of information. Although entropy in closed systems is unavoidable, its increase in open systems, can be arrested by a flux of energy, resources and/or information. A critical component of all systems is the boundary. If a boundary is impermeable, it will prevent energy flow from the environment into the system; likewise, if the boundary is too porous, it will not be able to prevent the dissipation of energy and resources into the environment, and will not prevent entropy from entering. Therefore, two expressions of entropy--thermodynamic and information--are identified and related to systems in transition and to spatial

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

The dynamics of team cognition: A process-oriented theory of knowledge emergence in teams.

PubMed

Grand, James A; Braun, Michael T; Kuljanin, Goran; Kozlowski, Steve W J; Chao, Georgia T

2016-10-01

Team cognition has been identified as a critical component of team performance and decision-making. However, theory and research in this domain continues to remain largely static; articulation and examination of the dynamic processes through which collectively held knowledge emerges from the individual- to the team-level is lacking. To address this gap, we advance and systematically evaluate a process-oriented theory of team knowledge emergence. First, we summarize the core concepts and dynamic mechanisms that underlie team knowledge-building and represent our theory of team knowledge emergence (Step 1). We then translate this narrative theory into a formal computational model that provides an explicit specification of how these core concepts and mechanisms interact to produce emergent team knowledge (Step 2). The computational model is next instantiated into an agent-based simulation to explore how the key generative process mechanisms described in our theory contribute to improved knowledge emergence in teams (Step 3). Results from the simulations demonstrate that agent teams generate collectively shared knowledge more effectively when members are capable of processing information more efficiently and when teams follow communication strategies that promote equal rates of information sharing across members. Lastly, we conduct an empirical experiment with real teams participating in a collective knowledge-building task to verify that promoting these processes in human teams also leads to improved team knowledge emergence (Step 4). Discussion focuses on implications of the theory for examining team cognition processes and dynamics as well as directions for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Generalized Galilean transformations and the measurement problem in the entropic dynamics approach to quantum theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, David T.

Quantum mechanics is an extremely successful and accurate physical theory, yet since its inception, it has been afflicted with numerous conceptual difficulties. The primary subject of this thesis is the theory of entropic quantum dynamics (EQD), which seeks to avoid these conceptual problems by interpreting quantum theory from an informational perspective. We begin by reviewing Cox's work in describing probability theory as a means of rationally and consistently quantifying uncertainties. We then discuss how probabilities can be updated according to either Bayes' theorem or the extended method of maximum entropy (ME). After that discussion, we review the work of Caticha and Giffin that shows that Bayes' theorem is a special case of ME. This important result demonstrates that the ME method is the general method for updating probabilities. We then review some motivating difficulties in quantum mechanics before discussing Caticha's work in deriving quantum theory from the approach of entropic dynamics, which concludes our review. After entropic dynamics is introduced, we develop the concepts of symmetries and transformations from an informational perspective. The primary result is the formulation of a symmetry condition that any transformation must satisfy in order to qualify as a symmetry in EQD. We then proceed to apply this condition to the extended Galilean transformation. This transformation is of interest as it exhibits features of both special and general relativity. The transformation yields a gravitational potential that arises from an equivalence of information. We conclude the thesis with a discussion of the measurement problem in quantum mechanics. We discuss the difficulties that arise in the standard quantum mechanical approach to measurement before developing our theory of entropic measurement. In entropic dynamics, position is the only observable. We show how a theory built on this one observable can account for the multitude of measurements present in

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

PubMed

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

The Analysis of Cell Population Dynamics in Mammary Gland Development and Tumorigenesis

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

AD Award Number: DAMD17-03-1-0498 TITLE: The Analysis of Cell Population Dynamics in Mammary Gland Development and Tumorigenesis PRINCIPAL...Summary 1 Aug 2004 - 31 Jul 2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER The Analysis of Cell Population Dynamics in Mammary Gland Development and...STATEMENT Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The mammary gland is made up of several epithelial cell

New test of the dynamic theory of neutron diffraction by a moving grating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharov, Maxim; Frank, Alexander; Kulin, German; Goryunov, Semyon

2018-04-01

Recently, multiwave dynamical theory of neutron diffraction by a moving grating was developed. The theory predicts that at a certain height of the grating profile a significant suppression of the zero-order diffraction may occur. The experiment to confirm predictions of this theory was performed. The resulting diffracted UCNs spectra were measured using time-of-flight Fourier diffractometer. The experimental data were compared with the results of numerical simulation and were found in a good agreement with theoretical predictions.

The Marriage of Science and Spirit: Dynamic Systems Theory and the Development of Spirituality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cupit, C. Glenn

2007-01-01

The adherence of traditional developmental theories to a linear paradigm is incompatible with the nature of "spirit". Dynamic Systems Theory (DST), a recent contributor to understanding child development, offers an alternative which avoids these paradigmatic limitations. Concepts of agency, "top-down" causality, emergence and…

Linking Theory of Mind and Central Coherence Bias in Autism and in the General Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarrold, Christopher; Butler, David W.; Cottington, Emily M.; Jimenez, Flora

2000-01-01

Three experiments investigated whether theory-of-mind deficits and weak central coherence might be functionally related. Found that theory-of-mind performance was inversely related to a measure of central coherence bias in the general population. Poor theory-of-mind performance was linked to weak central coherence among children with typical…

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

PubMed

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Population growth rates: issues and an application.

PubMed Central

Godfray, H Charles J; Rees, Mark

2002-01-01

Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering. PMID:12396521

Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

PubMed

Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

2016-02-01

Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

2012-07-01

Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

Costs of children--benefit theory and population control.

PubMed

Tian, X

1989-01-01

In order to stem the rising fertility and growth rates in China, new theories and measures are needed. The author suggests new insights into the relationships between reproductive behavior and economic interests, regulation of individual reproductive behavior by such economic interests, and governmental performance with these interests in mind. Topics are devoted to the benefit theory about the costs of children, trends in Chinese children's costs and benefits, and family planning (FP) based on children's costs and benefits. Natural biological law governed people's reproductive behavior and the number of offspring until there was control over human reproduction. Factors which determine the desired number of children can be economic, cultural, political, historical, or geographical. In modern times and with the commercialism of society, children have been sometimes viewed as commodities and Western economists (Becker and Leibenstein) have theorized the cost benefit ratio to parents. Expected positive benefits are support, labor force contribution, and family happiness. Negative benefits are the direct and indirect costs in time and money raising children. Children are produced where benefits are positive, and where benefits and costs are equal, circumstances will determine the result. No children will be produced when costs exceed benefits. The concept of net costs is described. Chinese trends indicate a direction toward a market oriented economy. Instead of following Western theory, as economic development has advanced rapidly the value of children has grown. The reasons are explained as marginal children may still bring benefits in a market where the function of regulation of a labor market is limited, children still render better support for their parents without a developed social security system, and boys are expected to secure their families fortunes during the changing economic conditions. The author recognizes that other conditions such as the number of

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

2014-01-01

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

Dynamic field theory and executive functions: lending explanation to current theories of development.

PubMed

Morton, J Bruce

2014-06-01

Buss and Spencer's monograph is an impressive achievement that is sure to have a lasting impact on the field of child development. The dynamic field theory (DFT) model that forms the heart of this contribution is ambitious in scope, detailed in its implementation, and rigorously tested against data, old and new. As such, the ideas contained in this fine document represent a qualitative advance in our understanding of young children's behavior, and lay a foundation for future research into the developmental origins of executive functioning. © 2014 The Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in a coevolving host-virus system.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Sieber, Michael; Becks, Lutz

2016-04-01

Eco-evolutionary dynamics have been shown to be important for understanding population and community stability and their adaptive potential. However, coevolution in the framework of eco-evolutionary theory has not been addressed directly. Combining experiments with an algal host and its viral parasite, and mathematical model analyses we show eco-evolutionary dynamics in antagonistic coevolving populations. The interaction between antagonists initially resulted in arms race dynamics (ARD) with selective sweeps, causing oscillating host-virus population dynamics. However, ARD ended and populations stabilised after the evolution of a general resistant host, whereas a trade-off between host resistance and growth then maintained host diversity over time (trade-off driven dynamics). Most importantly, our study shows that the interaction between ecology and evolution had important consequences for the predictability of the mode and tempo of adaptive change and for the stability and adaptive potential of populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Theory of population coupling and applications to describe high order correlations in large populations of interacting neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Haiping

2017-03-01

To understand the collective spiking activity in neuronal populations, it is essential to reveal basic circuit variables responsible for these emergent functional states. Here, I develop a mean field theory for the population coupling recently proposed in the studies of the visual cortex of mouse and monkey, relating the individual neuron activity to the population activity, and extend the original form to the second order, relating neuron-pair’s activity to the population activity, to explain the high order correlations observed in the neural data. I test the computational framework on the salamander retinal data and the cortical spiking data of behaving rats. For the retinal data, the original form of population coupling and its advanced form can explain a significant fraction of two-cell correlations and three-cell correlations, respectively. For the cortical data, the performance becomes much better, and the second order population coupling reveals non-local effects in local cortical circuits.

What theory, for whom and in which context? Reflections on the application of theory in the development and evaluation of complex population health interventions.

PubMed

Moore, Graham F; Evans, Rhiannon E

2017-12-01

Recent years have seen a growing emphasis on the value of building and testing middle range theory throughout the development and evaluation of complex population health interventions. We agree that a coherent theoretical basis for intervention development, and use of evaluation to test key causal assumptions and build theory, are crucial. However, in this editorial, we argue that such recommendations have often been operationalised in somewhat simplistic terms with potentially perverse consequences, and that an uncritical assumption that an intervention explicitly based on theory is inherently superior carries significant risks. We first argue that the drive for theory-based approaches may have exacerbated a propensity to select 'off-the-shelf' theories, leading to the selection of inappropriate theories which distract attention from the mechanisms through which a problem is actually sustained. Second, we discuss a tendency toward over-reliance on individual-level theorising. Finally, we discuss the relatively slow progress of population health intervention research in attending to issues of context, and the ecological fit of interventions with the systems whose functioning they attempt to change. We argue that while researchers should consider a broad range of potential theoretical perspectives on a given population health problem, citing a popular off-the-shelf theory as having informed an intervention and its evaluation does not inherently make for better science. Before identifying or developing a theory of change, researchers should develop a clear understanding of how the problem under consideration is created and sustained in context. A broader conceptualisation of theory that reaches across disciplines is vital if theory is to enhance, rather than constrain, the contribution of intervention research. Finally, intervention researchers need to move away from viewing interventions as discrete packages of components which can be described in isolation from

Weak ergodicity of population evolution processes.

PubMed

Inaba, H

1989-10-01

The weak ergodic theorems of mathematical demography state that the age distribution of a closed population is asymptotically independent of the initial distribution. In this paper, we provide a new proof of the weak ergodic theorem of the multistate population model with continuous time. The main tool to attain this purpose is a theory of multiplicative processes, which was mainly developed by Garrett Birkhoff, who showed that ergodic properties generally hold for an appropriate class of multiplicative processes. First, we construct a general theory of multiplicative processes on a Banach lattice. Next, we formulate a dynamical model of a multistate population and show that its evolution operator forms a multiplicative process on the state space of the population. Subsequently, we investigate a sufficient condition that guarantees the weak ergodicity of the multiplicative process. Finally, we prove the weak and strong ergodic theorems for the multistate population and resolve the consistency problem.

A theory of quantum dynamics of a nanomagnet under excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sham, L. J.

2013-09-01

A quantum treatment of magnetization dynamics of a nanomagnet between a thousand and a million spins may be needed as the magnet interacts with quantum control. The advantage of the all-quantum approach over the classical treatment of magnetization is the accounting for the correlation between the magnet and the control agent and the first-principles source of noise. This supplement to the conference talk will concentrate on an overview of the theory with a presentation of the basic ideas which could have wide applications and illustrations with some results. Details of applications to specific models are or will be published elsewhere. A clear concept of the structure of the ground and excited macrospin states as magnetization rotation states and magnons in the Bloch/Dyson sense gives rise to a consistent theory of the magnetization dynamics of a ferromagnet modeled by the Heisenberg Hamiltonian. An example of quantum control is the spin torque transfer, treated here as a sequence of scatterings of each current electron with the localized electrons of the ferromagnet, yields in each encounter a probability distribution of the magnetization recoil state correlated with each outgoing state of the electron. This picture provides a natural Monte Carlo process for simulation of the dynamics in which the probability is determined by quantum mechanics. The computed results of mean motion, noise and damping of the magnetization will be discussed.

Dynamic theory of neutron diffraction from a moving grating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bushuev, V. A., E-mail: vabushuev@yandex.ru; Frank, A. I.; Kulin, G. V.

2016-01-15

A multiwave dynamic theory of diffraction of ultracold neutrons from a moving phase grating has been developed in the approximation of coupled slowly varying amplitudes of wavefunctions. The effect of the velocity, period, and height of grooves of the grating, as well as the spectral angular distribution of the intensity of incident neurons, on the discrete energy spectrum and the intensity of diffraction reflections of various orders has been analyzed.

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

PubMed

D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

2016-08-01

Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-10-01

Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

PubMed

Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

2018-01-01

Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

Landscape Pattern Determines Neighborhood Size and Structure within a Lizard Population

PubMed Central

Ryberg, Wade A.; Hill, Michael T.; Painter, Charles W.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2013-01-01

Although defining population structure according to discrete habitat patches is convenient for metapopulation theories, taking this approach may overlook structure within populations continuously distributed across landscapes. For example, landscape features within habitat patches direct the movement of organisms and define the density distribution of individuals, which can generate spatial structure and localized dynamics within populations as well as among them. Here, we use the neighborhood concept, which describes population structure relative to the scale of individual movements, to illustrate how localized dynamics within a population of lizards (Sceloporus arenicolus) arise in response to variation in landscape pattern within a continuous habitat patch. Our results emphasize links between individual movements at small scales and the emergence of spatial structure within populations which resembles metapopulation dynamics at larger scales. We conclude that population dynamics viewed in a landscape context must consider the explicit distribution and movement of individuals within continuous habitat as well as among habitat patches. PMID:23441217

VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

The population dynamics of bacteria, phage and RM Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guet, Calin; Levin, Bruce; Pleska, Maros

Viruses drive and mediate bacterial evolution as parasites and vectors of horizontal gene transfer, respectively. Temperate bacteriophages, defined by the ability to lysogenize a fraction of hosts and to transmit horizontally as well as vertically in the form of prophages, frequently carry genes that increase fitness or contribute to bacterial pathogenicity. Restriction-modification (RM) systems, which are widely diverse and ubiquitous among bacteria, can prevent infections leading to lysis, but their effect on lysogeny is not clear. We show that RM systems prevent lytic and lysogenic infections to the same extent and therefore represent a molecular barrier to prophage acquisition. Surprisingly, we find that this negative effect can be overcome and even reversed at the population level, as a consequence of dynamic interactions between viruses, hosts and RM systems. Thus the population dynamics of bacteria carrying RM systems impacts bacterial genome-wide evolution. .

Inference and Analysis of Population Structure Using Genetic Data and Network Theory

PubMed Central

Greenbaum, Gili; Templeton, Alan R.; Bar-David, Shirli

2016-01-01

Clustering individuals to subpopulations based on genetic data has become commonplace in many genetic studies. Inference about population structure is most often done by applying model-based approaches, aided by visualization using distance-based approaches such as multidimensional scaling. While existing distance-based approaches suffer from a lack of statistical rigor, model-based approaches entail assumptions of prior conditions such as that the subpopulations are at Hardy-Weinberg equilibria. Here we present a distance-based approach for inference about population structure using genetic data by defining population structure using network theory terminology and methods. A network is constructed from a pairwise genetic-similarity matrix of all sampled individuals. The community partition, a partition of a network to dense subgraphs, is equated with population structure, a partition of the population to genetically related groups. Community-detection algorithms are used to partition the network into communities, interpreted as a partition of the population to subpopulations. The statistical significance of the structure can be estimated by using permutation tests to evaluate the significance of the partition’s modularity, a network theory measure indicating the quality of community partitions. To further characterize population structure, a new measure of the strength of association (SA) for an individual to its assigned community is presented. The strength of association distribution (SAD) of the communities is analyzed to provide additional population structure characteristics, such as the relative amount of gene flow experienced by the different subpopulations and identification of hybrid individuals. Human genetic data and simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the analyses. The approach presented here provides a novel, computationally efficient model-free method for inference about population structure that does not entail assumption of

Inference and Analysis of Population Structure Using Genetic Data and Network Theory.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Templeton, Alan R; Bar-David, Shirli

2016-04-01

Clustering individuals to subpopulations based on genetic data has become commonplace in many genetic studies. Inference about population structure is most often done by applying model-based approaches, aided by visualization using distance-based approaches such as multidimensional scaling. While existing distance-based approaches suffer from a lack of statistical rigor, model-based approaches entail assumptions of prior conditions such as that the subpopulations are at Hardy-Weinberg equilibria. Here we present a distance-based approach for inference about population structure using genetic data by defining population structure using network theory terminology and methods. A network is constructed from a pairwise genetic-similarity matrix of all sampled individuals. The community partition, a partition of a network to dense subgraphs, is equated with population structure, a partition of the population to genetically related groups. Community-detection algorithms are used to partition the network into communities, interpreted as a partition of the population to subpopulations. The statistical significance of the structure can be estimated by using permutation tests to evaluate the significance of the partition's modularity, a network theory measure indicating the quality of community partitions. To further characterize population structure, a new measure of the strength of association (SA) for an individual to its assigned community is presented. The strength of association distribution (SAD) of the communities is analyzed to provide additional population structure characteristics, such as the relative amount of gene flow experienced by the different subpopulations and identification of hybrid individuals. Human genetic data and simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the analyses. The approach presented here provides a novel, computationally efficient model-free method for inference about population structure that does not entail assumption of

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

PubMed Central

Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

Theories of transporting processes of Cu in Jiaozhou Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dongfang; Su, Chunhua; Zhu, Sixi; Wu, Yunjie; Zhou, Wei

2018-02-01

Many marine bays have been polluted along with the rapid development of industry and population size, and understanding the transporting progresses of pollutants is essential to pollution control. In order to better understanding the transporting progresses of pollutants in marine, this paper carried on a comprehensive research of the theories of transporting processes of Cu in Jiaozhou Bay. Results showed that the transporting processes of Cu in this bay could be summarized into seven key theories including homogeneous theory, environmental dynamic theory, horizontal loss theory, source to waters transporting theory, sedimentation transporting theory, migration trend theory and vertical transporting theory, respectively. These theories helpful to better understand the migration progress of pollutants in marine bay.

Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

PubMed

Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

2002-02-01

Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.